Updated polymarket & elicit fetchers so that they now run without human input. Added Omen
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README.md
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README.md
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## How to use your own cookies
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Private session cookies are necessary to query CSET-foretell and Good Judgment Open. You can get said cookies by creating an account in said platforms and then making and inspecting a request (e.g., by making a prediction). After doing this, you should create a `src/privatekeys.json`, in the same format as `src/privatekeys_example.json`
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## What this is
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This is a set of libraries and a command line interface that fetches probabilities/forecasts from prediction markets and forecasting platforms. These forecasts are then hosted on airtable, and used to power a small search engine for probabilities.
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Eventually, this could become more elaborate; for example, forecasts could be ranked according to their quality. For now, a demo can be found [here](https://www.loki.red/metaforecasts/) (try searching "Trump"), and the database can be perused [here](https://www.loki.red/metaforecasts/data/).
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## How to run
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### 1. Download this repository
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``git clone https://github.com/QURIresearch/metaforecasts``
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### 2. Enter your own cookies
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Private session cookies are necessary to query CSET-foretell and Good Judgment Open. You can get said cookies by creating an account in said platforms and then making and inspecting a request (e.g., by making a prediction). After doing this, you should create a `src/privatekeys.json`, in the same format as `src/privatekeys_example.json`
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### 3. Actually run
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From the top level directory, enter: `npm run start`
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## Various notes
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- This will eventually be a webpage where users can just search for keywords and obtain forecasts related to those keywords. For example, by searching "Trump" and get probabilities related to various scenarios involving him.
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- A demo of this functionality can be found [here](https://www.loki.red/metaforecasts/), the database can be found [here](https://www.loki.red/metaforecasts/data/), and a csv with the raw data [here](https://www.loki.red/metaforecasts/merged-questions.csv).
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- These probabilities could then be rated and annotated, e.g., prediction markets rarely go above 95% or below 5%.
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- For elicit and metaculus, this library currently filters questions with <10 predictions
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- Right now, I'm fetching only a couple of common properties, such as the title, url, platform, whether a question is binary (yes/no), its percentage, and the number of forecasts. However, the code contains more fields commented out, such as trade volume, liquidity, etc.
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- A note as to quality: Good Judgment Open ~ Metaculus > CSET > PredictIt ~> Polymarket >> Elicit > Omen. Further, prediction markets rarely go above 95% or below 5%.
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- For elicit and metaculus, this library currently filters questions with <10 predictions.
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@ -1,25 +1,29 @@
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"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts","# Forecasters"
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"How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","11","11"
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"How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","25","25"
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"What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","11","10"
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"Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022","CSET-foretell",true,"51%","38","31"
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"How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/101-on-how-many-of-china-s-top-chipmakers-will-the-united-states-impose-new-export-controls-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","49","48"
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"What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/100-what-percentage-of-the-collective-revenue-of-the-leading-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-producers-will-come-from-china-between-july-1-2020-and-june-30-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","43","41"
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"Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell",true,"65%","101","75"
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"What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/95-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","59","50"
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"When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong","CSET-foretell",false,"none","131","98"
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"What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/96-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-chips-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","59","52"
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"What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/93-what-will-the-dollar-value-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-chips-to-china-be-in-the-first-half-of-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","67","55"
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"What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in the first half of 2021? ","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/92-what-will-the-dollar-value-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-to-china-be-in-the-first-half-of-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","55","42"
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"What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey","CSET-foretell",false,"none","138","121"
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"What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/86-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-be-u-s-china-collaborations-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","82","77"
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"Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025","CSET-foretell",true,"71%","120","89"
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"What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for China be in the first two quarters of 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/84-what-will-the-ratio-of-trade-imports-exports-of-goods-to-gdp-be-china-in-the-first-two-quarters-january-1-through-june-30-of-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","53","42"
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"What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for all OECD member countries be in the first two quarters of 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/83-what-will-the-ratio-of-trade-imports-exports-of-goods-to-gdp-be-for-oecd-member-countries-in-the-first-two-quarters-january-1-through-june-30-of-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","47","34"
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"What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/80-what-percentage-of-u-s-citizens-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2021-pew-global-attitudes-survey","CSET-foretell",false,"none","200","158"
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"What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/79-conditional-on-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fy-2021-october-1-2020-to-september-30-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","84","68"
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"What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/76-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","80","61"
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"What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","169","126"
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"How much will the U.S. government spend on surveillance-related AI grants between June 1, 2020 and May 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/41-how-much-will-the-u-s-government-spend-on-surveillance-related-ai-grants-between-june-1-2020-and-may-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","79","62"
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"How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/32-how-many-sorties-against-chinese-aircraft-will-the-japanese-air-self-defense-force-conduct-by-april-30th-2020","CSET-foretell",false,"none","85","55"
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"How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the ""Big 5"" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/23-how-many-new-h-1b-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fy-2020","CSET-foretell",false,"none","119","75"
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"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts"
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"Conditional on President Trump NOT being convicted of ""incitement of insurrection,"" what will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022","CSET-foretell",false,"none","59"
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"Conditional on President Trump being convicted of ""incitement of insurrection,"" what will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/108-conditional-on-the-senate-convicting-president-trump-of-insurrection-what-will-be-the-average-bipartisan-index-score-for-the-senate-during-congress-s-117th-session-2021-2022","CSET-foretell",false,"none","62"
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"How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","45"
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"How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","51"
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"How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","21"
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"How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","55"
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"What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","28"
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"Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022","CSET-foretell",true,"51%","58"
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"How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/101-on-how-many-of-china-s-top-chipmakers-will-the-united-states-impose-new-export-controls-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","66"
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"What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/100-what-percentage-of-the-collective-revenue-of-the-leading-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-producers-will-come-from-china-between-july-1-2020-and-june-30-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","49"
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"Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell",true,"","148"
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"What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/95-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","63"
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"When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong","CSET-foretell",false,"none","146"
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"What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/96-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-chips-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","63"
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"What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/93-what-will-the-dollar-value-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-chips-to-china-be-in-the-first-half-of-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","71"
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"What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in the first half of 2021? ","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/92-what-will-the-dollar-value-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-to-china-be-in-the-first-half-of-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","57"
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"What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey","CSET-foretell",false,"none","149"
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"What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/86-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-be-u-s-china-collaborations-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","88"
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"Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025","CSET-foretell",true,"71%","137"
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"What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for China be in the first two quarters of 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/84-what-will-the-ratio-of-trade-imports-exports-of-goods-to-gdp-be-china-in-the-first-two-quarters-january-1-through-june-30-of-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","58"
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"What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for all OECD member countries be in the first two quarters of 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/83-what-will-the-ratio-of-trade-imports-exports-of-goods-to-gdp-be-for-oecd-member-countries-in-the-first-two-quarters-january-1-through-june-30-of-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","55"
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"What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/80-what-percentage-of-u-s-citizens-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2021-pew-global-attitudes-survey","CSET-foretell",false,"none","208"
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"What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/79-conditional-on-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fy-2021-october-1-2020-to-september-30-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","87"
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"What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/76-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","82"
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"What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","172"
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"How much will the U.S. government spend on surveillance-related AI grants between June 1, 2020 and May 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/41-how-much-will-the-u-s-government-spend-on-surveillance-related-ai-grants-between-june-1-2020-and-may-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","84"
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"How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/32-how-many-sorties-against-chinese-aircraft-will-the-japanese-air-self-defense-force-conduct-by-april-30th-2020","CSET-foretell",false,"none","89"
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"How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the ""Big 5"" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/23-how-many-new-h-1b-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fy-2020","CSET-foretell",false,"none","119"
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[
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{
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"Title": "Conditional on President Trump NOT being convicted of \"incitement of insurrection,\" what will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?",
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"URL": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022",
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"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
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"Binary question?": false,
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"Percentage": "none",
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"# Forecasts": "59",
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"# Forecasters": "54"
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},
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{
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"Title": "Conditional on President Trump being convicted of \"incitement of insurrection,\" what will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?",
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"URL": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/108-conditional-on-the-senate-convicting-president-trump-of-insurrection-what-will-be-the-average-bipartisan-index-score-for-the-senate-during-congress-s-117th-session-2021-2022",
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"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
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"Binary question?": false,
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"Percentage": "none",
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"# Forecasts": "62",
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"# Forecasters": "58"
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},
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{
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"Title": "How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
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"URL": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
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"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
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"Binary question?": false,
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"Percentage": "none",
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"# Forecasts": "45",
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"# Forecasters": "44"
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},
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{
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"Title": "How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
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"URL": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
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"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
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"Binary question?": false,
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"Percentage": "none",
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"# Forecasts": "51",
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"# Forecasters": "46"
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},
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{
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"Title": "How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
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"URL": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
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"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
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"Binary question?": false,
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"Percentage": "none",
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"# Forecasts": "11",
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"# Forecasters": "11"
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"# Forecasts": "21",
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"# Forecasters": "21"
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},
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{
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"Title": "How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?",
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@ -14,8 +50,8 @@
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"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
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"Binary question?": false,
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"Percentage": "none",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "25",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "25"
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "55",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "51"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
|
||||
|
|
@ -23,8 +59,8 @@
|
|||
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "11",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "10"
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "28",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "26"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?",
|
||||
|
|
@ -32,8 +68,8 @@
|
|||
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "51%",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "38",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "31"
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "58",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "44"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?",
|
||||
|
|
@ -41,8 +77,8 @@
|
|||
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "49",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "48"
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "66",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "62"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?",
|
||||
|
|
@ -50,17 +86,17 @@
|
|||
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "43",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "41"
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "49",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "46"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021",
|
||||
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "65%",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "101",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "75"
|
||||
"Percentage": "",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "148",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "108"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021?",
|
||||
|
|
@ -68,8 +104,8 @@
|
|||
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "59",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "50"
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "63",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "54"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?",
|
||||
|
|
@ -77,8 +113,8 @@
|
|||
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "131",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "98"
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "146",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "105"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2021?",
|
||||
|
|
@ -86,8 +122,8 @@
|
|||
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "59",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "52"
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "63",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "55"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021?",
|
||||
|
|
@ -95,8 +131,8 @@
|
|||
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "67",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "55"
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "71",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "57"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in the first half of 2021? ",
|
||||
|
|
@ -104,8 +140,8 @@
|
|||
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "55",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "42"
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "57",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "44"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?",
|
||||
|
|
@ -113,8 +149,8 @@
|
|||
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "138",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "121"
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "149",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "131"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?",
|
||||
|
|
@ -122,8 +158,8 @@
|
|||
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "82",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "77"
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "88",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "83"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?",
|
||||
|
|
@ -131,8 +167,8 @@
|
|||
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "71%",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "120",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "89"
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "137",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "105"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for China be in the first two quarters of 2021?",
|
||||
|
|
@ -140,8 +176,8 @@
|
|||
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "53",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "42"
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "58",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "46"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for all OECD member countries be in the first two quarters of 2021?",
|
||||
|
|
@ -149,8 +185,8 @@
|
|||
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "47",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "34"
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "55",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "39"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?",
|
||||
|
|
@ -158,8 +194,8 @@
|
|||
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "200",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "158"
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "208",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "165"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?",
|
||||
|
|
@ -167,8 +203,8 @@
|
|||
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "84",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "68"
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "87",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "70"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?",
|
||||
|
|
@ -176,8 +212,8 @@
|
|||
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "80",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "61"
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "82",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "63"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?",
|
||||
|
|
@ -185,8 +221,8 @@
|
|||
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "169",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "126"
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "172",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "128"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "How much will the U.S. government spend on surveillance-related AI grants between June 1, 2020 and May 31, 2021, inclusive?",
|
||||
|
|
@ -194,8 +230,8 @@
|
|||
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "79",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "62"
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "84",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "67"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?",
|
||||
|
|
@ -203,8 +239,8 @@
|
|||
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "85",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "55"
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "89",
|
||||
"# Forecasters": "57"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the \"Big 5\" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive?",
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
File diff suppressed because it is too large
Load Diff
|
|
@ -1,348 +1,341 @@
|
|||
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts","# Forecasters"
|
||||
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.34%",336,138
|
||||
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more than 50 people predict on this post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"81.86%",227,120
|
||||
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI cause an existential catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36.85%",158,102
|
||||
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"52.70%",137,95
|
||||
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"75.52%",113,91
|
||||
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"62.91%",207,89
|
||||
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"61.63%",115,86
|
||||
"How vivid is your visual imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid is your visual imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"50.68%",119,77
|
||||
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.50%",110,77
|
||||
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20> 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"42.70%",107,76
|
||||
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.79%",100,75
|
||||
"How vivid is your sound imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid is your sound imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"61.17%",106,74
|
||||
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.63%",95,72
|
||||
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"43.12%",112,71
|
||||
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"60.43%",145,69
|
||||
"How vivid is your taste imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid is your taste imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"25.73%",84,69
|
||||
"How vivid is your smell imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid is your smell imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"25.41%",82,68
|
||||
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"25.38%",84,67
|
||||
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you have a type of Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"19.76%",87,66
|
||||
"How frequently do you think in words?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently do you think in words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"78.13%",86,66
|
||||
"Do you have an internal monologue?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you have an internal monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"82.28%",80,63
|
||||
"How vivid is your touch imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid is your touch imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36.13%",79,62
|
||||
"How good is your memory?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good is your memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"53.25%",77,61
|
||||
"How much control do you have over your mind?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20much control do you have over your mind?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"45.59%",76,61
|
||||
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"42.76%",85,57
|
||||
"Trump will win a second term","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will win a second term&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46.20%",74,54
|
||||
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24.51%",75,52
|
||||
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"31.56%",66,52
|
||||
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"32.77%",93,49
|
||||
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"89.52%",83,45
|
||||
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.93%",44,41
|
||||
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Having%20a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"60.22%",41,37
|
||||
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.49%",37,35
|
||||
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"68.71%",42,34
|
||||
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"61.12%",42,33
|
||||
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.79%",34,32
|
||||
"The Pope will be assassinated.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Pope will be assassinated.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.03%",32,30
|
||||
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""There%20will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.91%",33,29
|
||||
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"38.97%",31,29
|
||||
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will still survive by the end of 2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"83.00%",40,29
|
||||
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36.91%",34,29
|
||||
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.38%",47,28
|
||||
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"54.94%",47,28
|
||||
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.00%",34,28
|
||||
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.81%",31,28
|
||||
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"82.13%",32,28
|
||||
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military draft in the United States before 2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"90.27%",33,28
|
||||
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.68%",28,27
|
||||
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.23%",26,26
|
||||
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.24%",42,26
|
||||
"California will secede from the United States before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will secede from the United States before 2021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.68%",34,26
|
||||
"Trump wins Nobel","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.55%",38,26
|
||||
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was an official NSA or CIA project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.88%",26,25
|
||||
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46.84%",32,24
|
||||
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""I%20predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.69%",26,23
|
||||
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.46%",26,23
|
||||
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity will occur by 2050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"35.12%",25,23
|
||||
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24.39%",28,23
|
||||
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"84.11%",27,22
|
||||
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.91%",33,22
|
||||
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"68.88%",25,22
|
||||
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"19.35%",23,22
|
||||
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6.67%",24,22
|
||||
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"58.15%",39,21
|
||||
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"59.38%",32,21
|
||||
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.36%",25,21
|
||||
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"99.41%",22,21
|
||||
"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.45%",22,20
|
||||
"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"15.33%",21,20
|
||||
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"21.64%",22,20
|
||||
"Google will survive for 15 more years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will survive for 15 more years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"88.38%",21,20
|
||||
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020 organized religions will have no political influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.68%",22,20
|
||||
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.74%",23,20
|
||||
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"18.43%",23,19
|
||||
"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"54.20%",20,19
|
||||
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"60.07%",30,19
|
||||
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"39.69%",35,18
|
||||
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.94%",35,19
|
||||
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"86.75%",24,19
|
||||
"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.21%",19,19
|
||||
"United States will invade Australia and take over","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States will invade Australia and take over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.00%",21,19
|
||||
"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.05%",21,19
|
||||
"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6.95%",20,19
|
||||
"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"74.85%",20,19
|
||||
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"72.43%",23,19
|
||||
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"64.80%",40,18
|
||||
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"34.33%",45,18
|
||||
"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"69.74%",19,18
|
||||
"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36.67%",21,18
|
||||
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"64.34%",50,18
|
||||
"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will make First Contact before we will have AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"12.05%",21,18
|
||||
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.27%",26,18
|
||||
"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.32%",22,18
|
||||
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"67.55%",22,18
|
||||
"Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"51.78%",18,18
|
||||
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"64.28%",18,18
|
||||
"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"21.62%",21,17
|
||||
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.78%",32,17
|
||||
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.72%",18,17
|
||||
"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.39%",18,17
|
||||
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"83.95%",21,17
|
||||
"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"12.79%",19,17
|
||||
"aliens invade earth in 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade earth in 2023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.94%",18,17
|
||||
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.17%",23,17
|
||||
"...be an environmental disaster.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an environmental disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"30.95%",19,17
|
||||
"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will not have established moon bases by 2032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"69.33%",18,17
|
||||
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.80%",25,17
|
||||
"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial general intelligence by 2030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.89%",19,17
|
||||
"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"30.95%",20,17
|
||||
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"35.00%",23,17
|
||||
"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.12%",17,16
|
||||
"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"19.11%",19,16
|
||||
"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"77.71%",17,16
|
||||
"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"34.67%",18,16
|
||||
"US presidents term limits abolished","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents term limits abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.24%",17,16
|
||||
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.04%",24,16
|
||||
"Will the UK terrorism threat level be ‘severe’ at 9am PST on Sun 11/22?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the UK terrorism threat level be ‘severe’ at 9am PST on Sun 11/22?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"81.00%",24,16
|
||||
"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will travel to Mars by 2030. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"42.89%",18,16
|
||||
"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"95.32%",19,16
|
||||
"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"35.53%",19,16
|
||||
"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.13%",16,16
|
||||
"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.90%",20,16
|
||||
"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"57.78%",18,16
|
||||
"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.81%",16,15
|
||||
"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"73.94%",17,15
|
||||
"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.44%",16,15
|
||||
"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"66.47%",17,15
|
||||
"Will the title of the New York Times front page article on Sun 11/22 include any of the words: ‘coronavirus,’ ‘COVID-19,’ ‘COVID,’ or ‘SARS-CoV-2’?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the title of the New York Times front page article on Sun 11/22 include any of the words: ‘coronavirus,’ ‘COVID-19,’ ‘COVID,’ or ‘SARS-CoV-2’?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"25.33%",24,15
|
||||
"Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20 life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.18%",17,15
|
||||
"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"80.50%",18,15
|
||||
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.48%",25,15
|
||||
"...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"64.47%",15,15
|
||||
"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.00%",20,15
|
||||
"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"43.47%",19,15
|
||||
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.90%",29,15
|
||||
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"59.36%",25,15
|
||||
"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.71%",17,15
|
||||
"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"93.31%",16,15
|
||||
"C still widely in use in the 2020s","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still widely in use in the 2020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"93.53%",15,15
|
||||
"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will collapse before the People's Republic of China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"41.47%",17,15
|
||||
"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"92.69%",16,15
|
||||
"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""by%202030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6.20%",15,14
|
||||
"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we understand the content of a message from outer space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.39%",18,14
|
||||
"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.73%",15,14
|
||||
"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"87.18%",17,14
|
||||
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts"
|
||||
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%2050%20prediction%20questions%20embedded%20in%20LessWrong%20posts%20and%20comments%20this%20month?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.39%",337
|
||||
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more%20than%2050%20people%20predict%20on%20this%20post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"81.90%",228
|
||||
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36.85%",158
|
||||
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20without%20additional%20intervention%20from%20the%20existing%20AI%20Alignment%20research%20community?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"52.70%",137
|
||||
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20arms%20race%20dynamic%20in%20the%20lead-up%20to%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"75.52%",113
|
||||
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20new%20English%20Strain%20is%20at%20least%2050%%20more%20infectious%20than%20the%20currently%20dominant%20American%20strain%20of%20Covid-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"63.37%",211
|
||||
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20single%20AGI%20or%20AGI%20project%20achieve%20a%20decisive%20strategic%20advantage?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"61.63%",115
|
||||
"How vivid is your visual imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"50.68%",119
|
||||
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%20deep%20learning%20with%20small%20variations,%20without%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.50%",110
|
||||
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"42.70%",107
|
||||
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20we%20build%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.79%",100
|
||||
"How vivid is your sound imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20sound%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"61.17%",106
|
||||
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20another%20AI%20Winter%20(a%20period%20commonly%20referred%20to%20as%20such)%20before%20we%20develop%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.63%",95
|
||||
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%201-3%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"43.12%",112
|
||||
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20an%20additional%20distinct%20large%20wave%20of%20Covid-19%20infections%20in%20the%20United%20States%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"58.18%",158
|
||||
"How vivid is your taste imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20taste%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"25.73%",84
|
||||
"How vivid is your smell imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20smell%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"25.41%",82
|
||||
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20need%20>%203%20breakthroughs%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning%20to%20get%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"25.38%",84
|
||||
"How frequently do you think in words?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"78.13%",86
|
||||
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"19.76%",87
|
||||
"Do you have an internal monologue?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"82.28%",80
|
||||
"How vivid is your touch imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36.13%",79
|
||||
"How much control do you have over your mind?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20much%20control%20do%20you%20have%20over%20your%20mind?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"45.59%",76
|
||||
"How good is your memory?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"53.25%",77
|
||||
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"42.76%",85
|
||||
"Trump will win a second term","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20win%20a%20second%20term&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46.20%",74
|
||||
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"31.56%",66
|
||||
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20continue%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24.51%",75
|
||||
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the%20post%20""Embedded%20Interactive%20Predictions%20on%20LessWrong""%20get%20more%20than%2080%20karma%20by%20December%201st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"89.52%",83
|
||||
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Having%20a%20button/prompt%20for%20Elicit%20on%20LW%20would%20increase%20usage%20by%20at%20least%205x&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"60.22%",41
|
||||
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025%20bitcoin%20will%20no%20longer%20be%20the%20highest%20traded%20cryptocurrency.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.49%",37
|
||||
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Singularity%20will%20not%20occur%20by%20the%20year%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"68.71%",42
|
||||
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"61.12%",42
|
||||
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202025,%20most%20of%20Russia%20will%20become%20part%20of%20the%20United%20States,%20or%20the%20reverse,%20or%20they%20will%20in%20some%20other%20manner%20become%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state,%20or%20part%20of%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.79%",34
|
||||
"The Pope will be assassinated.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Pope%20will%20be%20assassinated.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.03%",32
|
||||
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.38%",47
|
||||
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36.91%",34
|
||||
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"83.00%",40
|
||||
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin""%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.91%",33
|
||||
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"38.97%",31
|
||||
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"54.94%",47
|
||||
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"90.27%",33
|
||||
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"82.13%",32
|
||||
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.00%",34
|
||||
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.81%",31
|
||||
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organised%20religions%20will%20no%20longer%20exist%20in%20any%20meaningful%20way%20and%20religion%20will%20no%20longer%20have%20any%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.68%",28
|
||||
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.23%",26
|
||||
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.24%",42
|
||||
"Trump wins Nobel","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.55%",38
|
||||
"California will secede from the United States before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.68%",34
|
||||
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.88%",26
|
||||
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46.84%",32
|
||||
"...be an environmental disaster.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"27.35%",26
|
||||
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"58.56%",34
|
||||
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.69%",26
|
||||
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24.39%",28
|
||||
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"35.12%",25
|
||||
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.46%",26
|
||||
"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"62.27%",26
|
||||
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6.67%",24
|
||||
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20""Inverse%20AlphaFold""%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.91%",33
|
||||
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"68.88%",25
|
||||
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"19.35%",23
|
||||
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"84.11%",27
|
||||
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"58.15%",39
|
||||
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"99.41%",22
|
||||
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20.48%",29
|
||||
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.36%",25
|
||||
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"60.84%",32
|
||||
"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"37.46%",24
|
||||
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"34.13%",47
|
||||
"...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"70.75%",20
|
||||
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"27.83%",35
|
||||
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.74%",23
|
||||
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"21.64%",22
|
||||
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.68%",22
|
||||
"Google will survive for 15 more years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"88.38%",21
|
||||
"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.45%",22
|
||||
"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"15.33%",21
|
||||
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"72.43%",23
|
||||
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.94%",35
|
||||
"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"83.14%",22
|
||||
"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6.95%",20
|
||||
"United States will invade Australia and take over","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.00%",21
|
||||
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"39.69%",35
|
||||
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"86.75%",24
|
||||
"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.05%",21
|
||||
"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"54.20%",20
|
||||
"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"74.85%",20
|
||||
"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.21%",19
|
||||
"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"81.81%",26
|
||||
"...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.37%",19
|
||||
"...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"50.74%",19
|
||||
"...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36.45%",20
|
||||
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"64.28%",18
|
||||
"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"12.05%",21
|
||||
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"64.80%",40
|
||||
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"67.55%",22
|
||||
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.27%",26
|
||||
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20""Clogged%20drainpipe""%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"64.34%",50
|
||||
"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.32%",22
|
||||
"Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"51.78%",18
|
||||
"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"21.62%",21
|
||||
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20""a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true"".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.27%",26
|
||||
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"83.95%",21
|
||||
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.80%",25
|
||||
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.17%",23
|
||||
"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"69.33%",18
|
||||
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"35.00%",23
|
||||
"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"30.95%",20
|
||||
"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.39%",18
|
||||
"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"12.79%",19
|
||||
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.72%",18
|
||||
"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.89%",19
|
||||
"aliens invade earth in 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.94%",18
|
||||
"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.13%",16
|
||||
"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.12%",17
|
||||
"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"77.71%",17
|
||||
"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.90%",20
|
||||
"US presidents term limits abolished","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.24%",17
|
||||
"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"42.89%",18
|
||||
"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"35.53%",19
|
||||
"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"57.78%",18
|
||||
"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"34.67%",18
|
||||
"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20""in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"19.11%",19
|
||||
"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"95.32%",19
|
||||
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"59.36%",25
|
||||
"Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.18%",17
|
||||
"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.00%",20
|
||||
"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"73.94%",17
|
||||
"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.44%",16
|
||||
"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"66.47%",17
|
||||
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.48%",25
|
||||
"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"76.55%",20
|
||||
"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"78.12%",17
|
||||
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.90%",29
|
||||
"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.71%",17
|
||||
"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"92.69%",16
|
||||
"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.81%",16
|
||||
"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20""World%20War%20III""%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20""allies""%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"93.31%",16
|
||||
"C still widely in use in the 2020s","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"93.53%",15
|
||||
"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"43.47%",19
|
||||
"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"41.47%",17
|
||||
"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.47%",15
|
||||
"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"5.94%",17
|
||||
"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.73%",15
|
||||
"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"82.20%",15
|
||||
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.39%",18
|
||||
"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.00%",18
|
||||
"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20""Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow"".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.86%",14
|
||||
"By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"53.00%",14
|
||||
"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.39%",18
|
||||
"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6.20%",15
|
||||
"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.""%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.55%",20
|
||||
"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.00%",15
|
||||
"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.21%",14
|
||||
"Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.
|
||||
","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.
|
||||
&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.19%",16,14
|
||||
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.39%",18,14
|
||||
"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.86%",14,14
|
||||
"...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"18.07%",15,14
|
||||
"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.00%",15,14
|
||||
"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.47%",15,14
|
||||
"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.00%",15,14
|
||||
"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Within%20ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.55%",20,14
|
||||
"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"82.20%",15,14
|
||||
"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.82%",17,14
|
||||
"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"5.94%",17,14
|
||||
"By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"53.00%",14,14
|
||||
"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"30.26%",19,14
|
||||
"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.21%",14,14
|
||||
"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.00%",18,14
|
||||
"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.79%",14,14
|
||||
"By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"44.15%",13,13
|
||||
"ETI is AGI","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"84.61%",18,13
|
||||
"Humanity still a thing in 2036","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still a thing in 2036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"89.00%",13,13
|
||||
"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"73.89%",19,13
|
||||
"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.84%",19,13
|
||||
"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.62%",13,13
|
||||
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"51.36%",14,13
|
||||
"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.33%",18,13
|
||||
"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI won't happen in the next 10 years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"85.31%",16,13
|
||||
"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.75%",16,13
|
||||
"...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"37.07%",15,13
|
||||
"Will the number of active COVID cases in California increase by more than 15K between Fri 11/20 and Sun 11/22?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the number of active COVID cases in California increase by more than 15K between Fri 11/20 and Sun 11/22?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"71.29%",21,13
|
||||
"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"32.06%",16,13
|
||||
"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""The%20Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.27%",15,13
|
||||
"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"5.33%",15,13
|
||||
"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.92%",13,13
|
||||
"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.79%",14,13
|
||||
"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be good for the world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"81.32%",19,13
|
||||
"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.47%",15,13
|
||||
"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"27.64%",14,13
|
||||
"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.50%",16,13
|
||||
"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"62.71%",14,13
|
||||
"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"18.54%",13,13
|
||||
"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.69%",13,13
|
||||
"Trump dies of COVID-19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies of COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6.63%",32,13
|
||||
"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"38.31%",13,13
|
||||
"10 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.42%",36,13
|
||||
"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.75%",16,13
|
||||
"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.69%",16,13
|
||||
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"13.37%",19,13
|
||||
"By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065, a majority of the world will be vegan. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.08%",13,13
|
||||
"Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.08%",13,13
|
||||
"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.60%",15,12
|
||||
"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"70.00%",15,12
|
||||
"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"43.11%",19,12
|
||||
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46.69%",13,12
|
||||
"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"69.69%",13,12
|
||||
"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"52.47%",15,12
|
||||
"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"63.00%",13,12
|
||||
"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.64%",14,12
|
||||
"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46.07%",14,12
|
||||
"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20.25%",16,12
|
||||
"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.50%",14,12
|
||||
"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.64%",14,12
|
||||
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"60.83%",12,12
|
||||
"...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen traffic in San Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"58.67%",12,12
|
||||
"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"79.65%",17,12
|
||||
"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.71%",14,12
|
||||
"We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24.33%",12,12
|
||||
"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.83%",12,12
|
||||
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first contact cause an existential catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"49.24%",33,12
|
||||
"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.73%",15,12
|
||||
"100 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.79%",29,12
|
||||
"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.33%",15,12
|
||||
"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year continuous human habitation of the moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"15.93%",14,12
|
||||
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"63.15%",26,13
|
||||
"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"63.33%",15,12
|
||||
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"51.07%",14,12
|
||||
"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"78.92%",13,12
|
||||
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"30.40%",15,12
|
||||
"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Mankind%20is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"66.54%",13,12
|
||||
"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell will be cryogenically stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"18.25%",12,12
|
||||
"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.31%",13,12
|
||||
"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"37.08%",13,12
|
||||
"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"35.00%",12,12
|
||||
"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"86.83%",12,12
|
||||
"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.58%",12,12
|
||||
"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.17%",12,12
|
||||
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.00%",26,11
|
||||
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.82%",22,11
|
||||
"GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"41.54%",13,11
|
||||
"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""within%205 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"64.82%",11,11
|
||||
"Will any of the NYT Coronavirus vaccine tracker numbers increase between 9am PST Fri 11/20 and 9am PST Sun 11/22?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20any of the NYT Coronavirus vaccine tracker numbers increase between 9am PST Fri 11/20 and 9am PST Sun 11/22?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"76.33%",15,11
|
||||
"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to become a top-1000 site by 2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.00%",12,11
|
||||
"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.27%",11,11
|
||||
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.88%",25,11
|
||||
"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.20%",15,11
|
||||
"Will any LessWrong post made on Friday 11/20 get more than 100 karma by 9am PST on Sun 11/22?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20any LessWrong post made on Friday 11/20 get more than 100 karma by 9am PST on Sun 11/22?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.54%",13,11
|
||||
"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""In%20the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"75.17%",12,11
|
||||
"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"38.64%",11,11
|
||||
"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.08%",12,11
|
||||
"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"57.00%",13,11
|
||||
"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"76.77%",13,11
|
||||
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"44.63%",24,11
|
||||
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"23.38%",24,11
|
||||
"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.00%",11,11
|
||||
"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.00%",14,11
|
||||
"Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"5.42%",12,11
|
||||
"Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"31.64%",11,11
|
||||
"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"65.93%",14,11
|
||||
"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"68.67%",12,11
|
||||
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.86%",14,11
|
||||
"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone a woolly mammoth by 2040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.57%",14,11
|
||||
"With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.92%",13,11
|
||||
"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030 organized religions will have no political influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.29%",14,11
|
||||
"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.91%",11,11
|
||||
"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will land a man on Mars by 2050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"43.08%",13,11
|
||||
"SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"13.67%",12,11
|
||||
"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""At%20least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.21%",14,11
|
||||
"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""By%20March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"16.33%",12,11
|
||||
"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.79%",14,11
|
||||
"Trump will run for president in 2024","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will run for president in 2024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20.38%",13,11
|
||||
"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama will run for office before 2021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"21.27%",11,11
|
||||
"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"45.92%",13,11
|
||||
"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.42%",12,11
|
||||
"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will win the 2024 presidential election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"45.69%",13,11
|
||||
"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.18%",11,11
|
||||
"Trump wins the 2020 election.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins the 2020 election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.54%",13,11
|
||||
"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24.75%",12,11
|
||||
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"77.83%",12,11
|
||||
"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden gets coronavirus in 2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.09%",11,11
|
||||
"50 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.65%",34,11
|
||||
"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.54%",13,11
|
||||
"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.00%",11,11
|
||||
"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"44.08%",12,11
|
||||
"People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.09%",11,11
|
||||
"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"52.69%",13,11
|
||||
"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.77%",13,11
|
||||
"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.43%",14,11
|
||||
"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""there%20is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20.73%",11,11
|
||||
"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"23.67%",12,11
|
||||
"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"93.25%",12,11
|
||||
"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"45.31%",13,11
|
||||
"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"31.38%",13,11
|
||||
"'President Mike Pence'","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.06%",16,11
|
||||
"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"75.09%",11,10
|
||||
"Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.
|
||||
|
||||
http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.
|
||||
|
||||
http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"19.80%",10,10
|
||||
"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies of Coronavirus in 2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.36%",11,10
|
||||
"Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"48.00%",10,10
|
||||
"Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.30%",10,10
|
||||
"WWIII starts before 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts before 2030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.86%",14,10
|
||||
"Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner = POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.20%",10,10
|
||||
"Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.64%",11,10
|
||||
"Airbnb to be acquired by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to be acquired by 2025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"34.64%",11,10
|
||||
"Will Rob Wiblin post more than 12 tweets (not including retweets) between 9am PST on Fri 11/20 and 9am PST on Sun 11/22?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20Rob Wiblin post more than 12 tweets (not including retweets) between 9am PST on Fri 11/20 and 9am PST on Sun 11/22?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"52.69%",13,10
|
||||
"P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and proven by 2040 --Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"44.17%",12,10
|
||||
"Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.10%",10,10
|
||||
"A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"41.30%",10,10
|
||||
"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"34.38%",16,10
|
||||
"By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"15.80%",10,10
|
||||
"“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.42%",12,10
|
||||
"We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.92%",13,10
|
||||
"Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"13.14%",14,10
|
||||
"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"70.67%",12,10
|
||||
"Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46.70%",10,10
|
||||
"Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"27.79%",14,10
|
||||
"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.46%",13,10
|
||||
"EU to dissolve by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to dissolve by 2040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"39.45%",11,10
|
||||
"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.92%",12,10
|
||||
"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"52.73%",11,10
|
||||
"By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"13.08%",12,10
|
||||
"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"15.50%",12,10
|
||||
"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.91%",11,10
|
||||
"A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"12.09%",11,10
|
||||
"By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"16.00%",10,10
|
||||
"The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6.09%",11,10
|
||||
"HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.09%",11,10
|
||||
"Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.50%",10,10
|
||||
","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally.
|
||||
&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.19%",16
|
||||
"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.00%",15
|
||||
"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"87.18%",17
|
||||
"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.79%",14
|
||||
"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.82%",17
|
||||
"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"30.26%",19
|
||||
"Humanity still a thing in 2036","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"89.00%",13
|
||||
"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"38.31%",13
|
||||
"By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.08%",13
|
||||
"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.69%",16
|
||||
"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20""How%20to%20create%20a%20mind"")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.75%",16
|
||||
"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.50%",16
|
||||
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"44.46%",26
|
||||
"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.79%",14
|
||||
"ETI is AGI","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"84.61%",18
|
||||
"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"32.06%",16
|
||||
"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20""SETI%20Winter""%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"73.89%",19
|
||||
"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.84%",19
|
||||
"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.33%",18
|
||||
"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"27.64%",14
|
||||
"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.62%",13
|
||||
"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"5.33%",15
|
||||
"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"85.31%",16
|
||||
"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.69%",13
|
||||
"By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"44.15%",13
|
||||
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20""spaceship""%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"51.36%",14
|
||||
"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.47%",15
|
||||
"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20""Pilotless""%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"62.71%",14
|
||||
"Trump dies of COVID-19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6.63%",32
|
||||
"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.75%",16
|
||||
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"13.37%",19
|
||||
"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"18.54%",13
|
||||
"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.92%",13
|
||||
"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""The%20Essential%20Workers""%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.27%",15
|
||||
"Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.08%",13
|
||||
"10 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.42%",36
|
||||
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"51.07%",14
|
||||
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"30.40%",15
|
||||
"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46.07%",14
|
||||
"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20.25%",16
|
||||
"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"35.00%",12
|
||||
"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"78.92%",13
|
||||
"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"52.47%",15
|
||||
"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.64%",14
|
||||
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"49.24%",33
|
||||
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46.69%",13
|
||||
"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"15.93%",14
|
||||
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20""train%20it%20away""?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"63.15%",26
|
||||
"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"70.00%",15
|
||||
"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"43.11%",19
|
||||
"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.83%",12
|
||||
"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"63.33%",15
|
||||
"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.31%",13
|
||||
"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"63.00%",13
|
||||
"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.60%",15
|
||||
"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.58%",12
|
||||
"100 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.79%",29
|
||||
"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.50%",14
|
||||
"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"69.69%",13
|
||||
"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"37.08%",13
|
||||
"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"18.25%",12
|
||||
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"60.83%",12
|
||||
"We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24.33%",12
|
||||
"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.64%",14
|
||||
"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.71%",14
|
||||
"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.17%",12
|
||||
"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.33%",15
|
||||
"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"86.83%",12
|
||||
"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.73%",15
|
||||
"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.""%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"66.54%",13
|
||||
"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.57%",14
|
||||
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.82%",22
|
||||
"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"38.64%",11
|
||||
"As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"67.79%",14
|
||||
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.00%",26
|
||||
"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20""same""?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20""final%20being""?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.27%",11
|
||||
"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.""%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"64.82%",11
|
||||
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"77.83%",12
|
||||
"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"43.08%",13
|
||||
"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.20%",15
|
||||
"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"57.00%",13
|
||||
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.88%",25
|
||||
"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.21%",14
|
||||
"GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"41.54%",13
|
||||
"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"93.25%",12
|
||||
"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"23.67%",12
|
||||
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"23.38%",24
|
||||
"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.91%",11
|
||||
"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.""%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20.73%",11
|
||||
"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.00%",14
|
||||
"Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"5.42%",12
|
||||
"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.77%",13
|
||||
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.86%",14
|
||||
"With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.92%",13
|
||||
"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"31.38%",13
|
||||
"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"45.31%",13
|
||||
"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.08%",12
|
||||
"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.43%",14
|
||||
"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"16.33%",12
|
||||
"Trump will run for president in 2024","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20.38%",13
|
||||
"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.42%",12
|
||||
"SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"13.67%",12
|
||||
"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"45.69%",13
|
||||
"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.00%",11
|
||||
"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"44.08%",12
|
||||
"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.18%",11
|
||||
"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"65.93%",14
|
||||
"Trump wins the 2020 election.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.54%",13
|
||||
"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"68.67%",12
|
||||
"Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"31.64%",11
|
||||
"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.79%",14
|
||||
"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.29%",14
|
||||
"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.09%",11
|
||||
"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.00%",11
|
||||
"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"21.27%",11
|
||||
"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"52.69%",13
|
||||
"50 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.65%",34
|
||||
"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20""Grognor""%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"45.92%",13
|
||||
"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.00%",12
|
||||
"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.54%",13
|
||||
"People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.09%",11
|
||||
"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24.75%",12
|
||||
"'President Mike Pence'","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.06%",16
|
||||
"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones""%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"75.17%",12
|
||||
"Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"22.08%",12
|
||||
"“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.42%",12
|
||||
"“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.46%",13
|
||||
"“China will break apart by 2030”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24.60%",10
|
||||
"Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"27.79%",14
|
||||
"Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46.70%",10
|
||||
"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"34.38%",16
|
||||
"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"15.50%",12
|
||||
"Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"13.14%",14
|
||||
"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.92%",12
|
||||
"By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"16.00%",10
|
||||
"Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.10%",10
|
||||
"By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"13.08%",12
|
||||
"We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20""do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation""?%20They%20answer%20""yes"".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.92%",13
|
||||
"EU to dissolve by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"39.45%",11
|
||||
"Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years.
|
||||
|
||||
By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years.
|
||||
By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20
|
||||
|
||||
By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"77.10%",10,10
|
||||
"More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.38%",13,10
|
||||
"The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"78.90%",10,10
|
||||
"“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.46%",13,10
|
||||
"“China will break apart by 2030”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will break apart by 2030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24.60%",10,10
|
||||
"Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.60%",10,10
|
||||
"In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20.40%",10,10
|
||||
"homosexuality criminalized in the US","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized in the US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.50%",10,10
|
||||
"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"60.36%",11,10
|
||||
"Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"22.08%",12,10
|
||||
""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="".%20The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.46%",13,10
|
||||
"By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"30.90%",10,10
|
||||
"Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.08%",13,10
|
||||
"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.30%",10,10
|
||||
"In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.36%",14,10
|
||||
"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"21.70%",10,10
|
||||
"1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets will have been cataloged by 2035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"41.08%",13,10
|
||||
"At least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36.82%",11,10
|
||||
By%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"77.10%",10
|
||||
"P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"44.17%",12
|
||||
"By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"30.90%",10
|
||||
"Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20""very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.64%",11
|
||||
""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.""%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.46%",13
|
||||
"Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.08%",13
|
||||
"In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.36%",14
|
||||
"1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"41.08%",13
|
||||
"At least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20""anarchist""%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36.82%",11
|
||||
"A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"41.30%",10
|
||||
"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.46%",13
|
||||
"The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6.09%",11
|
||||
"HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.09%",11
|
||||
"The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"78.90%",10
|
||||
"In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20.40%",10
|
||||
"Airbnb to be acquired by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"34.64%",11
|
||||
"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"75.09%",11
|
||||
"By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"15.80%",10
|
||||
"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.36%",11
|
||||
"Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"48.00%",10
|
||||
"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"52.73%",11
|
||||
"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.30%",10
|
||||
"Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.50%",10
|
||||
"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"21.70%",10
|
||||
"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"60.36%",11
|
||||
"WWIII starts before 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.86%",14
|
||||
"homosexuality criminalized in the US","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.50%",10
|
||||
"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.91%",11
|
||||
"Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.30%",10
|
||||
"Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.60%",10
|
||||
"Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.20%",10
|
||||
"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"70.67%",12
|
||||
"Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.
|
||||
|
||||
http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.
|
||||
|
||||
http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"19.80%",10
|
||||
"More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.38%",13
|
||||
"A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"12.09%",11
|
||||
|
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|
|
@ -1,116 +1,124 @@
|
|||
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts","# Forecasters"
|
||||
"Which NFL team will win Super Bowl LV?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1898-which-nfl-team-will-win-super-bowl-lv","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","51","38"
|
||||
"Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"50%","19","17"
|
||||
"Will the New START treaty be extended by Russia and the U.S. before 6 February 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1899-will-the-new-start-treaty-be-extended-by-russia-and-the-u-s-before-6-february-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"95%","68","44"
|
||||
"Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","25","20"
|
||||
"Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union","Good Judgment Open",true,"66%","44","37"
|
||||
"Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"47%","45","34"
|
||||
"Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022","Good Judgment Open",true,"1%","44","27"
|
||||
"Before 15 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1892-before-15-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","86","78"
|
||||
"When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","40","30"
|
||||
"At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","76","65"
|
||||
"Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","63","52"
|
||||
"How many seats in the Legislative Assembly will New Ideas (Nuevas Ideas) win in the 2021 Salvadoran legislative election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1889-how-many-seats-in-the-legislative-assembly-will-new-ideas-nuevas-ideas-win-in-the-2021-salvadoran-legislative-election","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","19","11"
|
||||
"What will be the closing price of Mercado Libre stock on 15 February 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1888-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-mercado-libre-stock-on-15-february-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","57","28"
|
||||
"How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the Americas Region as of 1 February 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1887-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-have-been-reported-by-the-world-health-organization-who-for-the-americas-region-as-of-1-february-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","190","83"
|
||||
"How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United Kingdom as of 1 February 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1886-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-have-been-reported-by-the-world-health-organization-who-for-the-united-kingdom-as-of-1-february-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","232","94"
|
||||
"What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","85","50"
|
||||
"Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"18%","96","62"
|
||||
"When will Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies approve the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1890-when-will-mexico-s-chamber-of-deputies-approve-the-federal-law-for-the-regulation-of-cannabis","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","17","15"
|
||||
"On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a number of daily new COVID-19 cases per 100k residents of 75.0 or higher?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1881-on-1-march-2021-how-many-states-will-have-a-number-of-daily-new-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-of-75-0-or-higher","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","181","83"
|
||||
"On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1880-on-1-march-2021-how-many-states-will-have-a-covid-19-positivity-rate-greater-than-10-0","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","124","67"
|
||||
"Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1879-before-1-april-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-israel-s-knesset","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","166","114"
|
||||
"At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","79","68"
|
||||
"Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin","Good Judgment Open",true,"58%","89","60"
|
||||
"Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00","Good Judgment Open",true,"4%","99","54"
|
||||
"Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","288","158"
|
||||
"Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","220","163"
|
||||
"Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china","Good Judgment Open",true,"35%","164","119"
|
||||
"Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"10%","206","169"
|
||||
"Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers","Good Judgment Open",true,"40%","137","81"
|
||||
"Will the monthly occupancy level of European hotels next reach 50.0% or higher before June 2021, according to Smith Travel Research?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1874-will-the-monthly-occupancy-level-of-european-hotels-next-reach-50-0-or-higher-before-june-2021-according-to-smith-travel-research","Good Judgment Open",true,"36%","162","77"
|
||||
"Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","160","89"
|
||||
"Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open",true,"10%","153","102"
|
||||
"When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","120","72"
|
||||
"Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher","Good Judgment Open",true,"58%","54","38"
|
||||
"Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zero","Good Judgment Open",true,"10%","202","153"
|
||||
"Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020","Good Judgment Open",true,"92%","70","50"
|
||||
"In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitution","Good Judgment Open",true,"66%","35","28"
|
||||
"Before 21 January 2021, will the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) enter into a consent order that would allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to exit conservatorship?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1860-before-21-january-2021-will-the-federal-housing-finance-agency-fhfa-enter-into-a-consent-order-that-would-allow-fannie-mae-and-freddie-mac-to-exit-conservatorship","Good Judgment Open",true,"0%","63","43"
|
||||
"What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloomberg","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","89","34"
|
||||
"Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstan","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","65","27"
|
||||
"Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1856-will-the-imf-estimate-for-world-gdp-growth-for-2021-be-higher-in-its-april-2021-world-economic-outlook-report-relative-to-its-october-2020-report","Good Judgment Open",true,"70%","203","140"
|
||||
"Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peru","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","78","58"
|
||||
"Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively"" fell below 20%?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20","Good Judgment Open",true,"56%","274","154"
|
||||
"Who will be appointed as the next leader of the Communist Party in Vietnam?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1848-who-will-be-appointed-as-the-next-leader-of-the-communist-party-in-vietnam","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","160","88"
|
||||
"What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","315","203"
|
||||
"How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","640","275"
|
||||
"How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","316","177"
|
||||
"Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil","Good Judgment Open",true,"5%","226","176"
|
||||
"Will the average price of a gallon of gasoline fall below $1.95 for any week before 2 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1847-will-the-average-price-of-a-gallon-of-gasoline-fall-below-1-95-for-any-week-before-2-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","289","120"
|
||||
"Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"3%","364","181"
|
||||
"In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count","Good Judgment Open",true,"70%","176","112"
|
||||
"Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eia","Good Judgment Open",true,"95%","237","163"
|
||||
"On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergency","Good Judgment Open",true,"85%","213","150"
|
||||
"Between 13 November 2020 and 12 February 2021, will the closing price per barrel of WTI crude oil be higher than the closing price per barrel of Brent crude oil?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1839-between-13-november-2020-and-12-february-2021-will-the-closing-price-per-barrel-of-wti-crude-oil-be-higher-than-the-closing-price-per-barrel-of-brent-crude-oil","Good Judgment Open",true,"1%","224","101"
|
||||
"When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-region","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","186","82"
|
||||
"Will the People's Republic of China (PRC) officially declare an air-defense identification zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1832-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-officially-declare-an-air-defense-identification-zone-adiz-over-any-part-of-the-south-china-sea-before-1-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"4%","291","194"
|
||||
"Between 9 November 2020 and 28 February 2021, will a country cease to formally recognize Taiwan?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1831-between-9-november-2020-and-28-february-2021-will-a-country-cease-to-formally-recognize-taiwan","Good Judgment Open",true,"4%","359","199"
|
||||
"Will Russia and the People's Republic of China (PRC) conduct any joint naval exercises before 1 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1833-will-russia-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-conduct-any-joint-naval-exercises-before-1-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"","309","144"
|
||||
"When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 35 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the Europe Region?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1834-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-35-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-europe-region","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","321","91"
|
||||
"At close of business on 17 March 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 27 January 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1824-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-27-january-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","128","79"
|
||||
"Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authority","Good Judgment Open",true,"10%","130","53"
|
||||
"Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws","Good Judgment Open",true,"4%","216","131"
|
||||
"Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019","Good Judgment Open",true,"90%","210","98"
|
||||
"How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","775","163"
|
||||
"Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"","215","59"
|
||||
"Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir","Good Judgment Open",true,"5%","149","57"
|
||||
"Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conduct","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","122","40"
|
||||
"Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022","Good Judgment Open",true,"99%","116","52"
|
||||
"When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","337","138"
|
||||
"Before 21 January 2021, will the House of Representatives, pursuant to the 12th Amendment, vote to choose a president of the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1809-before-21-january-2021-will-the-house-of-representatives-pursuant-to-the-12th-amendment-vote-to-choose-a-president-of-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open",true,"","385","232"
|
||||
"For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open",true,"28%","440","143"
|
||||
"What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","187","62"
|
||||
"What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1799-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-housing-starts-for-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","274","78"
|
||||
"When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1801-when-will-lebanon-s-parliament-give-a-vote-of-confidence-to-a-new-government","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","281","55"
|
||||
"Before 1 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation at sea between the forces of India and the People's Republic of China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1795-before-1-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-at-sea-between-the-forces-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china","Good Judgment Open",true,"1%","347","177"
|
||||
"In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutional","Good Judgment Open",true,"96%","182","64"
|
||||
"Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","320","146"
|
||||
"At close of business on 27 January 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 December 2020?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1791-at-close-of-business-on-27-january-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-16-december-2020","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","178","111"
|
||||
"Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","214","97"
|
||||
"When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788-when-will-25-000-or-more-fans-next-attend-a-premier-league-match","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","488","172"
|
||||
"Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom","Good Judgment Open",true,"10%","799","389"
|
||||
"Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"5%","299","149"
|
||||
"Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782-will-any-2020-california-election-results-be-altered-by-a-cyberattack-against-a-voting-system","Good Judgment Open",true,"0%","260","135"
|
||||
"Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"25%","437","133"
|
||||
"When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-day","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","604","152"
|
||||
"In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-system","Good Judgment Open",true,"90%","180","71"
|
||||
"In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774-in-california-v-texas-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-reducing-the-penalty-amount-for-the-individual-mandate-of-the-affordable-care-act-aca-to-zero-rendered-the-individual-mandate-provision-unconstitutional","Good Judgment Open",true,"","288","72"
|
||||
"Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics","Good Judgment Open",true,"4%","438","162"
|
||||
"How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","428","88"
|
||||
"When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1762-when-will-the-eu-amend-its-own-resources-decision-to-help-finance-the-eu-s-proposed-covid-19-recovery-package","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","176","47"
|
||||
"How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1760-how-many-cybertrucks-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","247","75"
|
||||
"Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-service","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","182","70"
|
||||
"Before 14 February 2021, will former King Juan Carlos I and/or former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont return to Spain?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1740-before-14-february-2021-will-former-king-juan-carlos-i-and-or-former-catalan-president-carles-puigdemont-return-to-spain","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","214","96"
|
||||
"Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1744-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-debut-a-passenger-vehicle-powered-by-a-solid-state-battery","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","189","52"
|
||||
"When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","432","92"
|
||||
"Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","247","123"
|
||||
"Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used","Good Judgment Open",true,"3%","473","127"
|
||||
"When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1711-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-lines-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","818","253"
|
||||
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","177","71"
|
||||
"How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1698-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2021-and-2022-combined","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","166","44"
|
||||
"How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1678-how-many-public-dc-fast-charge-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-united-states-by-31-december-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","159","29"
|
||||
"How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","816","134"
|
||||
"Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","939","343"
|
||||
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law","Good Judgment Open",true,"70%","197","94"
|
||||
"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"5%","804","371"
|
||||
"How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","219","67"
|
||||
"How many total Fast Charge (>22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","216","64"
|
||||
"Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","329","181"
|
||||
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-european-union-delay-and-or-relax-the-implementation-and-or-enforcement-of-any-of-its-co2-emission-performance-standards-for-new-passenger-cars-and-or-new-light-commercial-vehicles","Good Judgment Open",true,"","161","79"
|
||||
"What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1583-what-will-be-the-2022-industry-wide-average-cost-of-li-ion-batteries-used-in-battery-powered-electric-vehicles","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","217","85"
|
||||
"What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)? ","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1582-what-total-percentage-of-global-vehicle-sales-in-2022-will-be-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-and-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-phevs","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","319","130"
|
||||
"Will there be a new prime minister of Italy before 24 January 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1502-will-there-be-a-new-prime-minister-of-italy-before-24-january-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"1%","825","263"
|
||||
"Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1411-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-that-caps-administrative-fees-and-or-operating-profits-of-the-country-s-pension-fund-managers","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","247","95"
|
||||
"Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1412-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-nationalizing-private-pension-fund-assets","Good Judgment Open",true,"1%","273","123"
|
||||
"When will Donald Trump cease to be president of the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1290-when-will-donald-trump-cease-to-be-president-of-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","6445","2159"
|
||||
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts"
|
||||
"Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"54%","56"
|
||||
"Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912-will-russia-conduct-a-flight-test-of-an-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-before-1-august-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"64%","58"
|
||||
"Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1909-will-chinese-businessman-jack-ma-physically-appear-in-public-outside-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"1%","86"
|
||||
"Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"10%","150"
|
||||
"When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1914-when-will-the-public-health-agency-of-canada-phac-report-1-1-million-or-more-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-canada","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","75"
|
||||
"How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1913-how-many-u-s-states-will-have-an-infection-rate-of-1-0-or-greater-for-covid-19-as-of-31-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","80"
|
||||
"Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","88"
|
||||
"Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1904-will-the-scottish-national-party-win-a-majority-of-seats-in-the-next-scottish-parliament-election","Good Judgment Open",true,"90%","121"
|
||||
"Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"15%","50"
|
||||
"How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902-how-many-seats-will-the-united-russia-party-win-in-the-2021-russian-state-duma-elections","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","70"
|
||||
"Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1906-before-15-july-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-moldova-s-parliament","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","39"
|
||||
"When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1907-when-will-a-new-dutch-government-be-sworn-in-after-the-2021-general-election","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","73"
|
||||
"Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"42%","49"
|
||||
"What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","94"
|
||||
"Which NFL team will win Super Bowl LV?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1898-which-nfl-team-will-win-super-bowl-lv","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","166"
|
||||
"Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"52%","78"
|
||||
"Will the New START treaty be extended by Russia and the U.S. before 6 February 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1899-will-the-new-start-treaty-be-extended-by-russia-and-the-u-s-before-6-february-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"100%","217"
|
||||
"Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","69"
|
||||
"Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union","Good Judgment Open",true,"74%","128"
|
||||
"Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"32%","120"
|
||||
"Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022","Good Judgment Open",true,"4%","67"
|
||||
"Before 15 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1892-before-15-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea","Good Judgment Open",true,"3%","176"
|
||||
"When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","138"
|
||||
"At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","125"
|
||||
"Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","83"
|
||||
"How many seats in the Legislative Assembly will New Ideas (Nuevas Ideas) win in the 2021 Salvadoran legislative election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1889-how-many-seats-in-the-legislative-assembly-will-new-ideas-nuevas-ideas-win-in-the-2021-salvadoran-legislative-election","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","34"
|
||||
"What will be the closing price of Mercado Libre stock on 15 February 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1888-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-mercado-libre-stock-on-15-february-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","181"
|
||||
"How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the Americas Region as of 1 February 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1887-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-have-been-reported-by-the-world-health-organization-who-for-the-americas-region-as-of-1-february-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","566"
|
||||
"How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United Kingdom as of 1 February 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1886-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-have-been-reported-by-the-world-health-organization-who-for-the-united-kingdom-as-of-1-february-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","602"
|
||||
"What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","127"
|
||||
"Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"15%","140"
|
||||
"When will Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies approve the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1890-when-will-mexico-s-chamber-of-deputies-approve-the-federal-law-for-the-regulation-of-cannabis","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","22"
|
||||
"On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a number of daily new COVID-19 cases per 100k residents of 75.0 or higher?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1881-on-1-march-2021-how-many-states-will-have-a-number-of-daily-new-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-of-75-0-or-higher","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","292"
|
||||
"On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1880-on-1-march-2021-how-many-states-will-have-a-covid-19-positivity-rate-greater-than-10-0","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","208"
|
||||
"Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1879-before-1-april-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-israel-s-knesset","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","217"
|
||||
"At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","87"
|
||||
"Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin","Good Judgment Open",true,"44%","114"
|
||||
"Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00","Good Judgment Open",true,"3%","122"
|
||||
"Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","346"
|
||||
"Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","295"
|
||||
"Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china","Good Judgment Open",true,"16%","204"
|
||||
"Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"5%","259"
|
||||
"Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers","Good Judgment Open",true,"25%","183"
|
||||
"Will the monthly occupancy level of European hotels next reach 50.0% or higher before June 2021, according to Smith Travel Research?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1874-will-the-monthly-occupancy-level-of-european-hotels-next-reach-50-0-or-higher-before-june-2021-according-to-smith-travel-research","Good Judgment Open",true,"20%","236"
|
||||
"Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","201"
|
||||
"Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open",true,"8%","181"
|
||||
"When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","164"
|
||||
"Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher","Good Judgment Open",true,"57%","60"
|
||||
"Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zero","Good Judgment Open",true,"10%","247"
|
||||
"Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020","Good Judgment Open",true,"85%","81"
|
||||
"In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitution","Good Judgment Open",true,"66%","48"
|
||||
"What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloomberg","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","129"
|
||||
"Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstan","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","85"
|
||||
"Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1856-will-the-imf-estimate-for-world-gdp-growth-for-2021-be-higher-in-its-april-2021-world-economic-outlook-report-relative-to-its-october-2020-report","Good Judgment Open",true,"79%","258"
|
||||
"Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peru","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","103"
|
||||
"Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively"" fell below 20%?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20","Good Judgment Open",true,"50%","349"
|
||||
"Who will be appointed as the next leader of the Communist Party in Vietnam?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1848-who-will-be-appointed-as-the-next-leader-of-the-communist-party-in-vietnam","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","194"
|
||||
"What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","400"
|
||||
"How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","826"
|
||||
"How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","384"
|
||||
"Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil","Good Judgment Open",true,"","252"
|
||||
"Will the average price of a gallon of gasoline fall below $1.95 for any week before 2 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1847-will-the-average-price-of-a-gallon-of-gasoline-fall-below-1-95-for-any-week-before-2-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"1%","342"
|
||||
"Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"3%","388"
|
||||
"In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count","Good Judgment Open",true,"","195"
|
||||
"Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eia","Good Judgment Open",true,"95%","257"
|
||||
"On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergency","Good Judgment Open",true,"85%","235"
|
||||
"Between 13 November 2020 and 12 February 2021, will the closing price per barrel of WTI crude oil be higher than the closing price per barrel of Brent crude oil?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1839-between-13-november-2020-and-12-february-2021-will-the-closing-price-per-barrel-of-wti-crude-oil-be-higher-than-the-closing-price-per-barrel-of-brent-crude-oil","Good Judgment Open",true,"0%","243"
|
||||
"When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-region","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","218"
|
||||
"Will the People's Republic of China (PRC) officially declare an air-defense identification zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1832-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-officially-declare-an-air-defense-identification-zone-adiz-over-any-part-of-the-south-china-sea-before-1-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"5%","340"
|
||||
"Between 9 November 2020 and 28 February 2021, will a country cease to formally recognize Taiwan?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1831-between-9-november-2020-and-28-february-2021-will-a-country-cease-to-formally-recognize-taiwan","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","420"
|
||||
"Will Russia and the People's Republic of China (PRC) conduct any joint naval exercises before 1 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1833-will-russia-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-conduct-any-joint-naval-exercises-before-1-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"93%","349"
|
||||
"When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 35 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the Europe Region?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1834-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-35-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-europe-region","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","360"
|
||||
"At close of business on 17 March 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 27 January 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1824-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-27-january-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","134"
|
||||
"Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authority","Good Judgment Open",true,"4%","164"
|
||||
"Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws","Good Judgment Open",true,"4%","239"
|
||||
"Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019","Good Judgment Open",true,"95%","227"
|
||||
"How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","973"
|
||||
"Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"","233"
|
||||
"Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir","Good Judgment Open",true,"3%","162"
|
||||
"Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conduct","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","129"
|
||||
"Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022","Good Judgment Open",true,"99%","119"
|
||||
"When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","388"
|
||||
"For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open",true,"12%","513"
|
||||
"What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","215"
|
||||
"What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1799-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-housing-starts-for-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","319"
|
||||
"When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1801-when-will-lebanon-s-parliament-give-a-vote-of-confidence-to-a-new-government","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","329"
|
||||
"Before 1 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation at sea between the forces of India and the People's Republic of China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1795-before-1-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-at-sea-between-the-forces-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china","Good Judgment Open",true,"0%","368"
|
||||
"In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutional","Good Judgment Open",true,"97%","190"
|
||||
"Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","340"
|
||||
"Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","226"
|
||||
"When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788-when-will-25-000-or-more-fans-next-attend-a-premier-league-match","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","535"
|
||||
"Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom","Good Judgment Open",true,"9%","911"
|
||||
"Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"5%","329"
|
||||
"Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782-will-any-2020-california-election-results-be-altered-by-a-cyberattack-against-a-voting-system","Good Judgment Open",true,"","280"
|
||||
"Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"","534"
|
||||
"When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-day","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","675"
|
||||
"In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-system","Good Judgment Open",true,"92%","183"
|
||||
"In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774-in-california-v-texas-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-reducing-the-penalty-amount-for-the-individual-mandate-of-the-affordable-care-act-aca-to-zero-rendered-the-individual-mandate-provision-unconstitutional","Good Judgment Open",true,"0%","299"
|
||||
"Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics","Good Judgment Open",true,"5%","490"
|
||||
"How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","440"
|
||||
"When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1762-when-will-the-eu-amend-its-own-resources-decision-to-help-finance-the-eu-s-proposed-covid-19-recovery-package","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","186"
|
||||
"How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1760-how-many-cybertrucks-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","276"
|
||||
"Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-service","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","205"
|
||||
"Before 14 February 2021, will former King Juan Carlos I and/or former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont return to Spain?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1740-before-14-february-2021-will-former-king-juan-carlos-i-and-or-former-catalan-president-carles-puigdemont-return-to-spain","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","233"
|
||||
"Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1744-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-debut-a-passenger-vehicle-powered-by-a-solid-state-battery","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","214"
|
||||
"When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","472"
|
||||
"Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","257"
|
||||
"Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used","Good Judgment Open",true,"9%","530"
|
||||
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","185"
|
||||
"How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1698-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2021-and-2022-combined","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","176"
|
||||
"How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1678-how-many-public-dc-fast-charge-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-united-states-by-31-december-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","165"
|
||||
"How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","907"
|
||||
"Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","1111"
|
||||
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law","Good Judgment Open",true,"72%","206"
|
||||
"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"5%","855"
|
||||
"How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","234"
|
||||
"How many total Fast Charge (>22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","233"
|
||||
"Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","339"
|
||||
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-european-union-delay-and-or-relax-the-implementation-and-or-enforcement-of-any-of-its-co2-emission-performance-standards-for-new-passenger-cars-and-or-new-light-commercial-vehicles","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","163"
|
||||
"What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1583-what-will-be-the-2022-industry-wide-average-cost-of-li-ion-batteries-used-in-battery-powered-electric-vehicles","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","221"
|
||||
"What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)? ","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1582-what-total-percentage-of-global-vehicle-sales-in-2022-will-be-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-and-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-phevs","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","331"
|
||||
"Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1411-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-that-caps-administrative-fees-and-or-operating-profits-of-the-country-s-pension-fund-managers","Good Judgment Open",true,"1%","253"
|
||||
"Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1412-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-nationalizing-private-pension-fund-assets","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","284"
|
||||
|
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Load Diff
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Load Diff
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13
data/omen-questions.csv
Normal file
13
data/omen-questions.csv
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
|
|||
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts"
|
||||
"Will the Ethereum block gas limit be >= 25,000,000 gas in any block on April 1st 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x06c942fd737bc53571a34667b2ae3b669f1f502d","Omen",true,"99.7653%",
|
||||
"Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x32848849f5b7e30ff75f57838fea8f9663c3d9de","Omen",true,"10.8673%",
|
||||
"Will at least 6000 YFI tokens be minted till end of Feb?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x7a236ecb8686068fd0f41c88773bb9cb40856e6d","Omen",true,"48.1083%",
|
||||
"Will Uniswap V3 be launched and usable in Q1 2021? (includes mainnet or Layer2)","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x8bcf27b20670a4f32973cbf231b8904029da1ccb","Omen",true,"40.1381%",
|
||||
"When will the FDA approve the use of an existing, orally-administered vaccine for the prevention of COVID-19?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x9598659e3fc7d5a618b57e94be2ac37e5d774905","Omen",false,"none",
|
||||
"Will The Flippening happen in 2021? (Will another blockchain's market cap exceed Bitcoin's market cap in 2021?)","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xa6da2bc89a433b9cdcc7271077a119139f4d305c","Omen",true,"50.0000%",
|
||||
"Will United States v Griffith (case 19 MAG 10987) resolve with Griffith convicted of a felony such as violating IEEPA?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xcc6cc7204eeba3f76168458b3ac725af89bb9fbb","Omen",true,"60.0000%",
|
||||
"Will Joe Biden be the US President at the end of 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xd450b6c4db569f600cb42acc0a6cd3a140c4894b","Omen",true,"85.1032%",
|
||||
"What will be the outcome of the 2020 US Presidential Election for the office of President of the United States, where the winner is the one receiving the most votes from certified electors of the Electoral College, those votes having been officially counted by the United States Congress under VICE PRESIDENT MICHAEL PENCE on January 6, 2021 (per the Electoral Count Act of 1887)?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xdbf41f1f2d28216eb4e76b9ed3856180c2daa479","Omen",true,"99.0000%",
|
||||
"Will Compound Chain be launched and usable by the end of Q2 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xe018254be84e200bfb9947dc57df8943cb2ac1b2","Omen",true,"40.0000%",
|
||||
"Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xed6940e49cee029c4664d9794c04d5f9e5597632","Omen",true,"11.7267%",
|
||||
"Will at least 6000 YFI tokens be minted till end of Feb?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xf2f5db144ec6dcd40a9e425b67a4930a3f442a16","Omen",true,"31.2652%",
|
||||
|
137
data/omen-questions.json
Normal file
137
data/omen-questions.json
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,137 @@
|
|||
[
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will the Ethereum block gas limit be >= 25,000,000 gas in any block on April 1st 2021?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0x06c942fd737bc53571a34667b2ae3b669f1f502d",
|
||||
"Platform": "Omen",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"marginalPrices": [
|
||||
"0.997652780320339389668726385868353",
|
||||
"0.002347219679660610331273614131647038"
|
||||
],
|
||||
"Percentage": "99.7653%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0x32848849f5b7e30ff75f57838fea8f9663c3d9de",
|
||||
"Platform": "Omen",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"marginalPrices": [
|
||||
"0.1086728608079395832263016792869373",
|
||||
"0.8913271391920604167736983207130627"
|
||||
],
|
||||
"Percentage": "10.8673%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will at least 6000 YFI tokens be minted till end of Feb?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0x7a236ecb8686068fd0f41c88773bb9cb40856e6d",
|
||||
"Platform": "Omen",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"marginalPrices": [
|
||||
"0.4810827016169048678561288717963137",
|
||||
"0.5189172983830951321438711282036863"
|
||||
],
|
||||
"Percentage": "48.1083%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Uniswap V3 be launched and usable in Q1 2021? (includes mainnet or Layer2)",
|
||||
"URL": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0x8bcf27b20670a4f32973cbf231b8904029da1ccb",
|
||||
"Platform": "Omen",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"marginalPrices": [
|
||||
"0.4013812037799882539689575072876216",
|
||||
"0.5986187962200117460310424927123784"
|
||||
],
|
||||
"Percentage": "40.1381%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "When will the FDA approve the use of an existing, orally-administered vaccine for the prevention of COVID-19?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0x9598659e3fc7d5a618b57e94be2ac37e5d774905",
|
||||
"Platform": "Omen",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"marginalPrices": [
|
||||
"0.01515661495857047678999833535985743",
|
||||
"0.01515661495857047678999833535985743",
|
||||
"0.01515661495857047678999833535985743",
|
||||
"0.01515661495857047678999833535985743",
|
||||
"0.9393735401657180928400066585605703"
|
||||
],
|
||||
"Percentage": "none"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will The Flippening happen in 2021? (Will another blockchain's market cap exceed Bitcoin's market cap in 2021?)",
|
||||
"URL": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0xa6da2bc89a433b9cdcc7271077a119139f4d305c",
|
||||
"Platform": "Omen",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"marginalPrices": [
|
||||
"0.5",
|
||||
"0.5"
|
||||
],
|
||||
"Percentage": "50.0000%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will United States v Griffith (case 19 MAG 10987) resolve with Griffith convicted of a felony such as violating IEEPA?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0xcc6cc7204eeba3f76168458b3ac725af89bb9fbb",
|
||||
"Platform": "Omen",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"marginalPrices": [
|
||||
"0.6000000000000000000199061948971275",
|
||||
"0.3999999999999999999800938051028725"
|
||||
],
|
||||
"Percentage": "60.0000%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Joe Biden be the US President at the end of 2021?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0xd450b6c4db569f600cb42acc0a6cd3a140c4894b",
|
||||
"Platform": "Omen",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"marginalPrices": [
|
||||
"0.8510322451182968590048070388296782",
|
||||
"0.1489677548817031409951929611703218"
|
||||
],
|
||||
"Percentage": "85.1032%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "What will be the outcome of the 2020 US Presidential Election for the office of President of the United States, where the winner is the one receiving the most votes from certified electors of the Electoral College, those votes having been officially counted by the United States Congress under VICE PRESIDENT MICHAEL PENCE on January 6, 2021 (per the Electoral Count Act of 1887)?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0xdbf41f1f2d28216eb4e76b9ed3856180c2daa479",
|
||||
"Platform": "Omen",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"marginalPrices": [
|
||||
"0.9900000000000001225706801609666705",
|
||||
"0.00999999999999987742931983903332947"
|
||||
],
|
||||
"Percentage": "99.0000%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Compound Chain be launched and usable by the end of Q2 2021?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0xe018254be84e200bfb9947dc57df8943cb2ac1b2",
|
||||
"Platform": "Omen",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"marginalPrices": [
|
||||
"0.399999999999999999999976",
|
||||
"0.600000000000000000000024"
|
||||
],
|
||||
"Percentage": "40.0000%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0xed6940e49cee029c4664d9794c04d5f9e5597632",
|
||||
"Platform": "Omen",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"marginalPrices": [
|
||||
"0.117266969703417233389287613062571",
|
||||
"0.882733030296582766610712386937429"
|
||||
],
|
||||
"Percentage": "11.7267%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will at least 6000 YFI tokens be minted till end of Feb?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0xf2f5db144ec6dcd40a9e425b67a4930a3f442a16",
|
||||
"Platform": "Omen",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"marginalPrices": [
|
||||
"0.3126524159386235616135925047260208",
|
||||
"0.6873475840613764383864074952739792"
|
||||
],
|
||||
"Percentage": "31.2652%"
|
||||
}
|
||||
]
|
||||
File diff suppressed because it is too large
Load Diff
|
|
@ -1,15 +1,25 @@
|
|||
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts","# Forecasters"
|
||||
"Will Trump Pardon Himself in His First Term?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-trump-pardon-himself-in-his-first-term","PolyMarket",true,"37.3707%","1448.00",
|
||||
"Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-attend-joe-biden-s-inauguration-ceremony-in-person","PolyMarket",true,"6.3134%","904.00",
|
||||
"Will Coinbase delist Ripple (XRP) before they begin publicly trading?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-coinbase-delist-ripple-xrp-before-they-begin-publicly-trading","PolyMarket",true,"93.8756%","373.00",
|
||||
"Will Donald Trump be inaugurated for his second term as President of the USA on Inauguration Day, January 20th, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-inaugurated-for-his-second-term-as-president-of-the-usa-on-inauguration-day-january-20th-2021","PolyMarket",true,"4.4697%","11248.00",
|
||||
"Will Donald Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-pardon-ross-ulbricht","PolyMarket",true,"8.2650%","391.00",
|
||||
"Will Donald Trump pardon Julian Assange?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-pardon-julian-assange","PolyMarket",true,"17.6931%","1291.00",
|
||||
"Will Joe Biden be inaugurated as President of the USA on January 20th, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-inaugurated-as-president-of-the-usa-on-january-20th-2021-1","PolyMarket",true,"90.5629%","3428.00",
|
||||
"Which party will control the senate? (R≡Yes, D≡No)","https://polymarket.com/market/which-party-will-control-the-senate","PolyMarket",true,"6.8794%","1113.00",
|
||||
"Will Donald Trump pardon Edward Snowden?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-pardon-edward-snowden","PolyMarket",true,"13.7089%","117.00",
|
||||
"Will $BTC break $50k before April 1st, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-btc-break-50k-before-april-1st-2021","PolyMarket",true,"54.4302%","565.00",
|
||||
"Will Trump complete his first term?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-trump-complete-his-first-term","PolyMarket",true,"87.6649%","766.00",
|
||||
"Will Bitcoin or Tesla have a higher market cap on March 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-or-tesla-have-a-higher-market-cap-on-march-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"39.9523%","120.00",
|
||||
"Will Donald Trump be impeached again before the end of his term?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-impeached-again-before-the-end-of-his-term","PolyMarket",true,"91.3797%","716.00",
|
||||
"Who will the world's richest person be on February 27, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/who-will-the-world-s-richest-person-be-on-february-27-2021","PolyMarket",false,"none","134.00",
|
||||
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts"
|
||||
"Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be above 10% on March 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-above-10-on-march-15-2021","PolyMarket",true,"20.3269%","69.00"
|
||||
"How many more tweets will be on the @DonaldJTrumpJr account by February 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-donald-j-trump-jr-account-by-february-1-2021","PolyMarket",false,"none","798.00"
|
||||
"Will Donald Trump's Twitter account be active on March 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-s-twitter-account-be-active-on-march-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"4.4456%","247.00"
|
||||
"Will ETH be above $1500 on February 3rd, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-1500-on-february-3rd-2021","PolyMarket",true,"20.6871%","165.00"
|
||||
"Will there be enough signatures for a vote on the recall of Gov. Newsom by March 17?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-gov-newsom-by-march-17","PolyMarket",true,"68.4254%","34.00"
|
||||
"Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on March 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"96.5852%","3239.00"
|
||||
"Who will the world's richest person be on February 27, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/who-will-the-world-s-richest-person-be-on-february-27-2021","PolyMarket",false,"none","558.00"
|
||||
"How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by March 1?","https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-senators-will-vote-to-convict-donald-trump-on-incitement-by-march-1","PolyMarket",false,"none","377.00"
|
||||
"Will Tesla announce a Bitcoin purchase before March 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-tesla-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-march-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"12.5256%","975.00"
|
||||
"Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in The US by April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"59.9503%","890.00"
|
||||
"Will Bitcoin or Tesla have a higher market cap on March 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-or-tesla-have-a-higher-market-cap-on-march-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"32.2396%","288.00"
|
||||
"How many more tweets will be on the @ElonMusk account on February 3, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-elon-musk-account-on-february-3-2021","PolyMarket",false,"none","179.00"
|
||||
"Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match","PolyMarket",true,"93.1437%","451.00"
|
||||
"Will $BTC break $50k before April 1st, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-btc-break-50k-before-april-1st-2021","PolyMarket",true,"27.6431%","1259.00"
|
||||
"Will YFI total supply be greater than 30,000 by March 15th?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-yfi-total-supply-be-greater-than-30-000-by-march-15th","PolyMarket",true,"86.4956%","118.00"
|
||||
"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021","PolyMarket",true,"4.9602%","1144.00"
|
||||
"Which party will control the senate?","https://polymarket.com/market/which-party-will-control-the-senate","PolyMarket",true,"0.4525%","1554.00"
|
||||
"What rating will theneedledrop give Drake’s ""Certified Lover Boy""?","https://polymarket.com/market/what-rating-will-theneedledrop-give-drake-s-certified-lover-boy","PolyMarket",true,"52.0540%","56.00"
|
||||
"$2000 stimulus checks by February 28, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/2000-stimulus-checks-by-february-28-2021","PolyMarket",true,"26.0828%","946.00"
|
||||
"Will the Senate convict Donald Trump on impeachment by April 29, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-senate-convict-donald-trump-on-impeachment-before-june-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"5.0066%","553.00"
|
||||
"Superbowl 55: Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-kansas-city-chiefs-win-superbowl-55","PolyMarket",true,"59.5820%","505.00"
|
||||
" Will Kim Kardashian or Kanye West file for divorce before March 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-kim-kardashian-or-kanye-west-file-for-divorce-before-march-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"26.3912%","155.00"
|
||||
"Donald Trump federally charged by February 20th?","https://polymarket.com/market/donald-trump-federally-charged-by-february-20th","PolyMarket",true,"5.4501%","265.00"
|
||||
"What will Coinbase’s market cap be 1 week after it starts publicly trading?","https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-coinbase-s-market-cap-be-1-week-after-it-starts-publicly-trading","PolyMarket",true,"72.4711%","263.00"
|
||||
|
|
|
@ -1,107 +1,51 @@
|
|||
[
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Trump Pardon Himself in His First Term?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-trump-pardon-himself-in-his-first-term",
|
||||
"Title": "Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be above 10% on March 15, 2021?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-above-10-on-march-15-2021",
|
||||
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "37.3707%",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "1448.00"
|
||||
"Percentage": "20.3269%",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "69.00"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-attend-joe-biden-s-inauguration-ceremony-in-person",
|
||||
"Title": "How many more tweets will be on the @DonaldJTrumpJr account by February 1, 2021?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-donald-j-trump-jr-account-by-february-1-2021",
|
||||
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "6.3134%",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "904.00"
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "798.00"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Coinbase delist Ripple (XRP) before they begin publicly trading?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-coinbase-delist-ripple-xrp-before-they-begin-publicly-trading",
|
||||
"Title": "Will Donald Trump's Twitter account be active on March 1, 2021?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-s-twitter-account-be-active-on-march-1-2021",
|
||||
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "93.8756%",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "373.00"
|
||||
"Percentage": "4.4456%",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "247.00"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Donald Trump be inaugurated for his second term as President of the USA on Inauguration Day, January 20th, 2021?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-inaugurated-for-his-second-term-as-president-of-the-usa-on-inauguration-day-january-20th-2021",
|
||||
"Title": "Will ETH be above $1500 on February 3rd, 2021?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-1500-on-february-3rd-2021",
|
||||
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "4.4697%",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "11248.00"
|
||||
"Percentage": "20.6871%",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "165.00"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Donald Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-pardon-ross-ulbricht",
|
||||
"Title": "Will there be enough signatures for a vote on the recall of Gov. Newsom by March 17?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-gov-newsom-by-march-17",
|
||||
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "8.2650%",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "391.00"
|
||||
"Percentage": "68.4254%",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "34.00"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Donald Trump pardon Julian Assange?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-pardon-julian-assange",
|
||||
"Title": "Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on March 1, 2021?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-1-2021",
|
||||
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "17.6931%",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "1291.00"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Joe Biden be inaugurated as President of the USA on January 20th, 2021?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-inaugurated-as-president-of-the-usa-on-january-20th-2021-1",
|
||||
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "90.5629%",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "3428.00"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Which party will control the senate? (R≡Yes, D≡No)",
|
||||
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/which-party-will-control-the-senate",
|
||||
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "6.8794%",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "1113.00"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Donald Trump pardon Edward Snowden?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-pardon-edward-snowden",
|
||||
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "13.7089%",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "117.00"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will $BTC break $50k before April 1st, 2021?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-btc-break-50k-before-april-1st-2021",
|
||||
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "54.4302%",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "565.00"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Trump complete his first term?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-trump-complete-his-first-term",
|
||||
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "87.6649%",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "766.00"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Bitcoin or Tesla have a higher market cap on March 1, 2021?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-or-tesla-have-a-higher-market-cap-on-march-1-2021",
|
||||
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "39.9523%",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "120.00"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Donald Trump be impeached again before the end of his term?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-impeached-again-before-the-end-of-his-term",
|
||||
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "91.3797%",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "716.00"
|
||||
"Percentage": "96.5852%",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "3239.00"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Who will the world's richest person be on February 27, 2021?",
|
||||
|
|
@ -109,6 +53,147 @@
|
|||
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "134.00"
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "558.00"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by March 1?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-senators-will-vote-to-convict-donald-trump-on-incitement-by-march-1",
|
||||
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "377.00"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Tesla announce a Bitcoin purchase before March 1, 2021?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-tesla-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-march-1-2021",
|
||||
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "12.5256%",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "975.00"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in The US by April 1, 2021?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021",
|
||||
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "59.9503%",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "890.00"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Bitcoin or Tesla have a higher market cap on March 1, 2021?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-or-tesla-have-a-higher-market-cap-on-march-1-2021",
|
||||
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "32.2396%",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "288.00"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "How many more tweets will be on the @ElonMusk account on February 3, 2021?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-elon-musk-account-on-february-3-2021",
|
||||
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "179.00"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match",
|
||||
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "93.1437%",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "451.00"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will $BTC break $50k before April 1st, 2021?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-btc-break-50k-before-april-1st-2021",
|
||||
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "27.6431%",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "1259.00"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will YFI total supply be greater than 30,000 by March 15th?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-yfi-total-supply-be-greater-than-30-000-by-march-15th",
|
||||
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "86.4956%",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "118.00"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021",
|
||||
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "4.9602%",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "1144.00"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Which party will control the senate?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/which-party-will-control-the-senate",
|
||||
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "0.4525%",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "1554.00"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "What rating will theneedledrop give Drake’s \"Certified Lover Boy\"?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-rating-will-theneedledrop-give-drake-s-certified-lover-boy",
|
||||
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "52.0540%",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "56.00"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "$2000 stimulus checks by February 28, 2021?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/2000-stimulus-checks-by-february-28-2021",
|
||||
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "26.0828%",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "946.00"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will the Senate convict Donald Trump on impeachment by April 29, 2021?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-senate-convict-donald-trump-on-impeachment-before-june-1-2021",
|
||||
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "5.0066%",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "553.00"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"title": "Will Coinbase delist Ripple (XRP) before they begin publicly trading?",
|
||||
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-coinbase-delist-ripple-xrp-before-they-begin-publicly-trading",
|
||||
"address": "0x361A583ef3A5f41Aa126465387b7f5e978F8A0C1"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Superbowl 55: Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers",
|
||||
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-kansas-city-chiefs-win-superbowl-55",
|
||||
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "59.5820%",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "505.00"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": " Will Kim Kardashian or Kanye West file for divorce before March 1, 2021?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-kim-kardashian-or-kanye-west-file-for-divorce-before-march-1-2021",
|
||||
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "26.3912%",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "155.00"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Donald Trump federally charged by February 20th?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/donald-trump-federally-charged-by-february-20th",
|
||||
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "5.4501%",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "265.00"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "What will Coinbase’s market cap be 1 week after it starts publicly trading?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-coinbase-s-market-cap-be-1-week-after-it-starts-publicly-trading",
|
||||
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "72.4711%",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": "263.00"
|
||||
}
|
||||
]
|
||||
|
|
@ -1,87 +1,90 @@
|
|||
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts","# Forecasters"
|
||||
"What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2020 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4353/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2020-election","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Which party will control the Senate after 2020 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4366/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2020-election","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Will Donald Trump complete his first term?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5158/Will-Donald-Trump-complete-his-first-term","PredictIt",true,"86%",,
|
||||
"Will Trump pardon Jeffrey Epstein by Jan. 20, 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5665/Will-Trump-pardon-Jeffrey-Epstein-by-Jan-20,-2021","PredictIt",true,"1%",,
|
||||
"Which of these 5 European leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5717/Which-of-these-5-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Will the Senate convict Donald Trump on impeachment in his first term?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5914/Will-the-Senate-convict-Donald-Trump-on-impeachment-in-his-first-term","PredictIt",true,"6%",,
|
||||
"Will Trump resign during his first term?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6008/Will-Trump-resign-during-his-first-term","PredictIt",true,"12%",,
|
||||
"Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani before end of 2020?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6020/Will-Trump-pardon-Rudy-Giuliani-before-end-of-2020","PredictIt",true,"2%",,
|
||||
"Will NASA find 2020’s global average temperature highest on record?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6234/Will-NASA-find-2020’s-global-average-temperature-highest-on-record","PredictIt",true,"45%",,
|
||||
"Will Trump pardon himself in his first term?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6453/Will-Trump-pardon-himself-in-his-first-term","PredictIt",true,"44%",,
|
||||
"What will be the popular vote margin in the 2020 presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6663/What-will-be-the-popular-vote-margin-in-the-2020-presidential-election","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"What will be the net change in Senate seats, by party?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6670/What-will-be-the-net-change-in-Senate-seats,-by-party","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Which U.S. Senate race will be won by the smallest margin?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6737/Which-US-Senate-race-will-be-won-by-the-smallest-margin","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"How many women will win election to the U.S. Senate in 2020?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6765/How-many-women-will-win-election-to-the-US-Senate-in-2020","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Will Democrats win the White House, Senate and House in 2020?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6770/Will-Democrats-win-the-White-House,-Senate-and-House-in-2020","PredictIt",true,"96%",,
|
||||
"Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"What percentage of the presidential vote will not be for the two major parties?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6809/What-percentage-of-the-presidential-vote-will-not-be-for-the-two-major-parties","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Will Nancy Pelosi become Acting U.S. President on January 20?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6852/Will-Nancy-Pelosi-become-Acting-US-President-on-January-20","PredictIt",true,"2%",,
|
||||
"Which party will win the 2020 House race in New York's 22nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6861/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-New-York's-22nd-District","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"How many votes in the 2020 U.S. presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6882/How-many-votes-in-the-2020-US-presidential-election","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"How many U.S. House delegations will Republicans win in the 2020 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6925/How-many-US-House-delegations-will-Republicans-win-in-the-2020-election","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"How closely will the election results match the polls?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6936/How-closely-will-the-election-results-match-the-polls","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of State on Feb. 15?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6944/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-State-on-Feb-15","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021","PredictIt",true,"8%",,
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Defense on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6949/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Defense-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Labor on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6951/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Labor-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Attorney General on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6952/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Attorney-General-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022","PredictIt",true,"32%",,
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Treasury Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6957/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Treasury-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed HUD Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6958/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HUD-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"What will be the margin in the Georgia special Senate election runoff?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6959/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-Georgia-special-Senate-election-runoff","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"What will be the margin in the Georgia regular Senate election runoff?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6960/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-Georgia-regular-Senate-election-runoff","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed HHS Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6965/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HHS-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Commerce Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6966/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Commerce-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Homeland Security Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6971/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Homeland-Security-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Energy Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6972/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Energy-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022","PredictIt",true,"32%",,
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Interior Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6976/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Interior-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed CIA Director on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6977/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-CIA-Director-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Education on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6978/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Education-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Transportation Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6979/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Transportation-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Agriculture Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6980/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Agriculture-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed EPA Administrator on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6981/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-EPA-Administrator-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14","PredictIt",true,"46%",,
|
||||
"Will Pete Buttigieg be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6986/Will-Pete-Buttigieg-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1","PredictIt",true,"85%",,
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Veterans Affairs Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6987/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Veterans-Affairs-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Director of National Intelligence on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6989/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Director-of-National-Intelligence-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Will Amy Klobuchar be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6990/Will-Amy-Klobuchar-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1","PredictIt",true,"2%",,
|
||||
"Will Elizabeth Warren be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6991/Will-Elizabeth-Warren-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1","PredictIt",true,"2%",,
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed OMB Director on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6992/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed U.S. Trade Representative on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6993/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-US-Trade-Representative-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021","PredictIt",true,"33%",,
|
||||
"Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary","PredictIt",true,"95%",,
|
||||
"Will Israel hold national elections for Knesset in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7007/Will-Israel-hold-national-elections-for-Knesset-in-2021","PredictIt",true,"98%",,
|
||||
"Which Georgia Senate candidate will win the most runoff votes?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7008/Which-Georgia-Senate-candidate-will-win-the-most-runoff-votes","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Which Georgia Senate candidate will win the fewest runoff votes?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7009/Which-Georgia-Senate-candidate-will-win-the-fewest-runoff-votes","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"How many votes in the Georgia regular Senate runoff election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7011/How-many-votes-in-the-Georgia-regular-Senate-runoff-election","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"How many votes in the Georgia special Senate runoff election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7012/How-many-votes-in-the-Georgia-special-Senate-runoff-election","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024","PredictIt",true,"44%",,
|
||||
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023","PredictIt",true,"20%",,
|
||||
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary","PredictIt",true,"31%",,
|
||||
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt",true,"17%",,
|
||||
"Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt",true,"30%",,
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed USAID Administrator on Mar. 16?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7020/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-USAID-Administrator-on-Mar-16","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt",true,"19%",,
|
||||
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Who will win the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7030/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Democratic-gubernatorial-primary","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021","PredictIt",true,"54%",,
|
||||
"How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7036/How-many-seats-will-Israel's-Likud-Party-win-in-the-next-Knesset-election","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom","PredictIt",true,"71%",,
|
||||
"Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Will there be a statewide recount in either Georgia Senate runoff?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7043/Will-there-be-a-statewide-recount-in-either-Georgia-Senate-runoff","PredictIt",true,"2%",,
|
||||
"Will Donald Trump be impeached again before the end of his term?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7044/Will-Donald-Trump-be-impeached-again-before-the-end-of-his-term","PredictIt",true,"92%",,
|
||||
"How many Yea votes for a Trump impeachment resolution before noon Jan. 20?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7045/How-many-Yea-votes-for-a-Trump-impeachment-resolution-before-noon-Jan-20","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"When will Jon Ossoff be sworn in as a U.S. Senator?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7046/When-will-Jon-Ossoff-be-sworn-in-as-a-US-Senator","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"When will Raphael Warnock be sworn in as a U.S. Senator?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7048/When-will-Raphael-Warnock-be-sworn-in-as-a-US-Senator","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"How many Yea votes in House for 25th Amendment resolution by Jan. 13?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7049/How-many-Yea-votes-in-House-for-25th-Amendment-resolution-by-Jan-13","PredictIt",false,"none",,
|
||||
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts"
|
||||
"Which party will control the Senate after 2020 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4366/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2020-election","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Which of these 5 European leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5717/Which-of-these-5-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Will Trump pardon himself in his first term?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6453/Will-Trump-pardon-himself-in-his-first-term","PredictIt",true,"2%",
|
||||
"What will be the popular vote margin in the 2020 presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6663/What-will-be-the-popular-vote-margin-in-the-2020-presidential-election","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"What percentage of the presidential vote will not be for the two major parties?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6809/What-percentage-of-the-presidential-vote-will-not-be-for-the-two-major-parties","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Which party will win the 2020 House race in New York's 22nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6861/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-New-York's-22nd-District","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"How many votes in the 2020 U.S. presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6882/How-many-votes-in-the-2020-US-presidential-election","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"How many U.S. House delegations will Republicans win in the 2020 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6925/How-many-US-House-delegations-will-Republicans-win-in-the-2020-election","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"How closely will the election results match the polls?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6936/How-closely-will-the-election-results-match-the-polls","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of State on Feb. 15?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6944/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-State-on-Feb-15","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021","PredictIt",true,"10%",
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Defense on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6949/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Defense-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Labor on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6951/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Labor-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Attorney General on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6952/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Attorney-General-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022","PredictIt",true,"24%",
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Treasury Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6957/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Treasury-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed HUD Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6958/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HUD-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed HHS Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6965/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HHS-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Commerce Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6966/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Commerce-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Homeland Security Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6971/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Homeland-Security-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Energy Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6972/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Energy-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022","PredictIt",true,"20%",
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Interior Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6976/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Interior-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed CIA Director on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6977/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-CIA-Director-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Education on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6978/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Education-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Transportation Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6979/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Transportation-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Agriculture Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6980/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Agriculture-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed EPA Administrator on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6981/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-EPA-Administrator-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14","PredictIt",true,"51%",
|
||||
"Will Pete Buttigieg be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6986/Will-Pete-Buttigieg-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1","PredictIt",true,"99%",
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Veterans Affairs Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6987/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Veterans-Affairs-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Director of National Intelligence on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6989/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Director-of-National-Intelligence-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Will Amy Klobuchar be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6990/Will-Amy-Klobuchar-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1","PredictIt",true,"1%",
|
||||
"Will Elizabeth Warren be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6991/Will-Elizabeth-Warren-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1","PredictIt",true,"1%",
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed OMB Director on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6992/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed U.S. Trade Representative on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6993/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-US-Trade-Representative-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021","PredictIt",true,"33%",
|
||||
"Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary","PredictIt",true,"96%",
|
||||
"Will Israel hold national elections for Knesset in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7007/Will-Israel-hold-national-elections-for-Knesset-in-2021","PredictIt",true,"99%",
|
||||
"Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024","PredictIt",true,"43%",
|
||||
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023","PredictIt",true,"22%",
|
||||
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary","PredictIt",true,"27%",
|
||||
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt",true,"12%",
|
||||
"Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt",true,"37%",
|
||||
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed USAID Administrator on Mar. 16?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7020/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-USAID-Administrator-on-Mar-16","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt",true,"25%",
|
||||
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Who will win the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7030/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Democratic-gubernatorial-primary","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021","PredictIt",true,"71%",
|
||||
"How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7036/How-many-seats-will-Israel's-Likud-Party-win-in-the-next-Knesset-election","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom","PredictIt",true,"63%",
|
||||
"Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Will the Senate convict Donald Trump in Biden's first 100 days?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7050/Will-the-Senate-convict-Donald-Trump-in-Biden's-first-100-days","PredictIt",true,"6%",
|
||||
"Will Lisa Murkowski be a Republican on April 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7051/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-a-Republican-on-April-1","PredictIt",true,"92%",
|
||||
"Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7054/How-many-Senators-will-vote-to-convict-Donald-Trump-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Will Mitch McConnell vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7055/Will-Mitch-McConnell-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"13%",
|
||||
"Will Mitt Romney vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7056/Will-Mitt-Romney-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"90%",
|
||||
"Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Will Susan Collins vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7058/Will-Susan-Collins-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"62%",
|
||||
"Will John Thune vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7059/Will-John-Thune-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"7%",
|
||||
"How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"How many Senators vote to confirm Pete Buttigieg as Transportation Secretary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7064/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Pete-Buttigieg-as-Transportation-Secretary","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Will Thom Tillis vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7066/Will-Thom-Tillis-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"5%",
|
||||
"Will Joe Manchin vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7067/Will-Joe-Manchin-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"92%",
|
||||
"Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Will Richard Burr vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7070/Will-Richard-Burr-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"9%",
|
||||
"Will Rob Portman vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7071/Will-Rob-Portman-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"20%",
|
||||
"Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1","PredictIt",true,"15%",
|
||||
"How many Senators vote to confirm Gina Raimondo as Commerce Secretary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7073/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Gina-Raimondo-as-Commerce-Secretary","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Will the Senate censure Josh Hawley before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7074/Will-the-Senate-censure-Josh-Hawley-before-May-1","PredictIt",true,"20%",
|
||||
"Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed","PredictIt",true,"7%",
|
||||
"How many Senators vote to confirm Alejandro Mayorkas as Homeland Security Sec.?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7076/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Alejandro-Mayorkas-as-Homeland-Security-Sec","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Will Lisa Murkowski vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7077/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"87%",
|
||||
"Will Italy hold national elections before June 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7078/Will-Italy-hold-national-elections-before-June-1","PredictIt",true,"25%",
|
||||
"Will Ben Sasse vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7080/Will-Ben-Sasse-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"80%",
|
||||
"How many Senators vote to confirm Jennifer Granholm as Energy Secretary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7081/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Jennifer-Granholm-as-Energy-Secretary","PredictIt",false,"none",
|
||||
"Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary","PredictIt",true,"79%",
|
||||
"Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021","PredictIt",true,"12%",
|
||||
|
|
|
@ -1,11 +1,4 @@
|
|||
[
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2020 election?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4353/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2020-election",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Which party will control the Senate after 2020 election?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4366/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2020-election",
|
||||
|
|
@ -13,20 +6,6 @@
|
|||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Donald Trump complete his first term?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5158/Will-Donald-Trump-complete-his-first-term",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "86%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Trump pardon Jeffrey Epstein by Jan. 20, 2021?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5665/Will-Trump-pardon-Jeffrey-Epstein-by-Jan-20,-2021",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "1%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Which of these 5 European leaders will leave office next?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5717/Which-of-these-5-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
|
||||
|
|
@ -34,40 +13,12 @@
|
|||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will the Senate convict Donald Trump on impeachment in his first term?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5914/Will-the-Senate-convict-Donald-Trump-on-impeachment-in-his-first-term",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "6%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Trump resign during his first term?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6008/Will-Trump-resign-during-his-first-term",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "12%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani before end of 2020?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6020/Will-Trump-pardon-Rudy-Giuliani-before-end-of-2020",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "2%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will NASA find 2020’s global average temperature highest on record?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6234/Will-NASA-find-2020’s-global-average-temperature-highest-on-record",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "45%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Trump pardon himself in his first term?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6453/Will-Trump-pardon-himself-in-his-first-term",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "44%"
|
||||
"Percentage": "2%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "What will be the popular vote margin in the 2020 presidential election?",
|
||||
|
|
@ -76,34 +27,6 @@
|
|||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "What will be the net change in Senate seats, by party?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6670/What-will-be-the-net-change-in-Senate-seats,-by-party",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Which U.S. Senate race will be won by the smallest margin?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6737/Which-US-Senate-race-will-be-won-by-the-smallest-margin",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "How many women will win election to the U.S. Senate in 2020?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6765/How-many-women-will-win-election-to-the-US-Senate-in-2020",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Democrats win the White House, Senate and House in 2020?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6770/Will-Democrats-win-the-White-House,-Senate-and-House-in-2020",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "96%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District",
|
||||
|
|
@ -118,13 +41,6 @@
|
|||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Nancy Pelosi become Acting U.S. President on January 20?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6852/Will-Nancy-Pelosi-become-Acting-US-President-on-January-20",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "2%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Which party will win the 2020 House race in New York's 22nd District?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6861/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-New-York's-22nd-District",
|
||||
|
|
@ -186,7 +102,7 @@
|
|||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "8%"
|
||||
"Percentage": "10%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Defense on Mar. 1?",
|
||||
|
|
@ -214,7 +130,7 @@
|
|||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "32%"
|
||||
"Percentage": "24%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Treasury Secretary on Mar. 1?",
|
||||
|
|
@ -230,20 +146,6 @@
|
|||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "What will be the margin in the Georgia special Senate election runoff?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6959/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-Georgia-special-Senate-election-runoff",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "What will be the margin in the Georgia regular Senate election runoff?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6960/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-Georgia-regular-Senate-election-runoff",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed HHS Secretary on Mar. 1?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6965/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HHS-Secretary-on-Mar-1",
|
||||
|
|
@ -277,7 +179,7 @@
|
|||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "32%"
|
||||
"Percentage": "20%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Interior Secretary on Mar. 1?",
|
||||
|
|
@ -326,14 +228,14 @@
|
|||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "46%"
|
||||
"Percentage": "51%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Pete Buttigieg be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6986/Will-Pete-Buttigieg-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "85%"
|
||||
"Percentage": "99%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Veterans Affairs Secretary on Mar. 1?",
|
||||
|
|
@ -354,14 +256,14 @@
|
|||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6990/Will-Amy-Klobuchar-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "2%"
|
||||
"Percentage": "1%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Elizabeth Warren be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6991/Will-Elizabeth-Warren-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "2%"
|
||||
"Percentage": "1%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed OMB Director on Mar. 1?",
|
||||
|
|
@ -410,63 +312,35 @@
|
|||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "95%"
|
||||
"Percentage": "96%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Israel hold national elections for Knesset in 2021?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7007/Will-Israel-hold-national-elections-for-Knesset-in-2021",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "98%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Which Georgia Senate candidate will win the most runoff votes?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7008/Which-Georgia-Senate-candidate-will-win-the-most-runoff-votes",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Which Georgia Senate candidate will win the fewest runoff votes?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7009/Which-Georgia-Senate-candidate-will-win-the-fewest-runoff-votes",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "How many votes in the Georgia regular Senate runoff election?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7011/How-many-votes-in-the-Georgia-regular-Senate-runoff-election",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "How many votes in the Georgia special Senate runoff election?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7012/How-many-votes-in-the-Georgia-special-Senate-runoff-election",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none"
|
||||
"Percentage": "99%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "44%"
|
||||
"Percentage": "43%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "20%"
|
||||
"Percentage": "22%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "31%"
|
||||
"Percentage": "27%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?",
|
||||
|
|
@ -487,14 +361,14 @@
|
|||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "17%"
|
||||
"Percentage": "12%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "30%"
|
||||
"Percentage": "37%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed USAID Administrator on Mar. 16?",
|
||||
|
|
@ -508,7 +382,7 @@
|
|||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "19%"
|
||||
"Percentage": "25%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?",
|
||||
|
|
@ -529,7 +403,7 @@
|
|||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "54%"
|
||||
"Percentage": "71%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election?",
|
||||
|
|
@ -543,7 +417,7 @@
|
|||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "71%"
|
||||
"Percentage": "63%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31?",
|
||||
|
|
@ -560,45 +434,192 @@
|
|||
"Percentage": "none"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will there be a statewide recount in either Georgia Senate runoff?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7043/Will-there-be-a-statewide-recount-in-either-Georgia-Senate-runoff",
|
||||
"Title": "Will the Senate convict Donald Trump in Biden's first 100 days?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7050/Will-the-Senate-convict-Donald-Trump-in-Biden's-first-100-days",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "2%"
|
||||
"Percentage": "6%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Donald Trump be impeached again before the end of his term?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7044/Will-Donald-Trump-be-impeached-again-before-the-end-of-his-term",
|
||||
"Title": "Will Lisa Murkowski be a Republican on April 1?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7051/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-a-Republican-on-April-1",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "92%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "How many Yea votes for a Trump impeachment resolution before noon Jan. 20?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7045/How-many-Yea-votes-for-a-Trump-impeachment-resolution-before-noon-Jan-20",
|
||||
"Title": "Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "When will Jon Ossoff be sworn in as a U.S. Senator?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7046/When-will-Jon-Ossoff-be-sworn-in-as-a-US-Senator",
|
||||
"Title": "How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by Apr. 29?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7054/How-many-Senators-will-vote-to-convict-Donald-Trump-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "When will Raphael Warnock be sworn in as a U.S. Senator?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7048/When-will-Raphael-Warnock-be-sworn-in-as-a-US-Senator",
|
||||
"Title": "Will Mitch McConnell vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7055/Will-Mitch-McConnell-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "13%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Mitt Romney vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7056/Will-Mitt-Romney-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "90%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "How many Yea votes in House for 25th Amendment resolution by Jan. 13?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7049/How-many-Yea-votes-in-House-for-25th-Amendment-resolution-by-Jan-13",
|
||||
"Title": "Will Susan Collins vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7058/Will-Susan-Collins-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "62%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will John Thune vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7059/Will-John-Thune-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "7%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Pete Buttigieg as Transportation Secretary?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7064/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Pete-Buttigieg-as-Transportation-Secretary",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Thom Tillis vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7066/Will-Thom-Tillis-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "5%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Joe Manchin vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7067/Will-Joe-Manchin-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "92%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Richard Burr vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7070/Will-Richard-Burr-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "9%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Rob Portman vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7071/Will-Rob-Portman-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "20%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "15%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Gina Raimondo as Commerce Secretary?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7073/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Gina-Raimondo-as-Commerce-Secretary",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will the Senate censure Josh Hawley before May 1?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7074/Will-the-Senate-censure-Josh-Hawley-before-May-1",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "20%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "7%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Alejandro Mayorkas as Homeland Security Sec.?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7076/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Alejandro-Mayorkas-as-Homeland-Security-Sec",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Lisa Murkowski vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7077/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "87%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Italy hold national elections before June 1?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7078/Will-Italy-hold-national-elections-before-June-1",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "25%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Ben Sasse vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7080/Will-Ben-Sasse-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "80%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Jennifer Granholm as Energy Secretary?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7081/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Jennifer-Granholm-as-Energy-Secretary",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": false,
|
||||
"Percentage": "none"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "79%"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"Title": "Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021?",
|
||||
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021",
|
||||
"Platform": "PredictIt",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "12%"
|
||||
}
|
||||
]
|
||||
|
|
@ -1,2 +1,2 @@
|
|||
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts","# Forecasters"
|
||||
"Some title","someurl.com","some platform",true,"X%/none",15,10
|
||||
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts"
|
||||
"Some title","someurl.com","some platform",true,"X%/none",15
|
||||
|
|
|
@ -4,7 +4,6 @@
|
|||
"Platform": "some platform",
|
||||
"Binary question?": true,
|
||||
"Percentage": "X%/none",
|
||||
"# Forecasts": 15,
|
||||
"# Forecasters": 10
|
||||
"# Forecasts": 15
|
||||
}
|
||||
]
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -1,11 +1,12 @@
|
|||
/* Imports */
|
||||
import fs from "fs"
|
||||
import axios from "axios"
|
||||
import Papa from "papaparse"
|
||||
import open from "open"
|
||||
import readline from "readline"
|
||||
|
||||
/* Definitions */
|
||||
let downloadurl = 'https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestion&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0&predictors=community'
|
||||
let elicitEndpoint = "https://elicit.org/api/v1/binary-questions/csv?binaryQuestions.resolved=false&binaryQuestions.search=&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&predictors=community"
|
||||
|
||||
/* Support functions */
|
||||
let avg = (array) => array.reduce((a, b) => Number(a) + Number(b)) / array.length;
|
||||
|
|
@ -45,7 +46,7 @@ function processArray(arrayQuestions){
|
|||
|
||||
let numforecasters = (unique(forecasters)).length
|
||||
if(numforecasters >= 10){
|
||||
let url = `https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=${title.replace(" ", "%20")}&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0`
|
||||
let url = `https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=${title.replace(/ /g, "%20")}&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0`
|
||||
let forecasts = questionsObj[question].forecasts
|
||||
|
||||
//console.log(forecasts)
|
||||
|
|
@ -89,14 +90,9 @@ async function awaitdownloadconfirmation(message,callback){
|
|||
let filePath = "./data/elicit-binary_export.csv"
|
||||
|
||||
export async function elicit(){
|
||||
console.log('A browser tab will open. Please download the csv to /data/elicit-binary_export.csv by clicking on "Download CSV"')
|
||||
await sleep(3000)
|
||||
await open(downloadurl);
|
||||
await awaitdownloadconfirmation('Press enter when you have downloaded the csv to /data/elicit-binary_export.csv',async () => {
|
||||
let csvFile = fs.readFileSync(filePath, {encoding: 'utf8'})
|
||||
let csvData = csvFile.toString(csvFile)
|
||||
//console.log(csvData)
|
||||
await Papa.parse(csvData, {
|
||||
let csvContent = await axios.get(elicitEndpoint)
|
||||
.then(query => query.data)
|
||||
await Papa.parse(csvContent, {
|
||||
header: true,
|
||||
complete: results => {
|
||||
console.log('Downloaded', results.data.length, 'records.');
|
||||
|
|
@ -105,6 +101,5 @@ export async function elicit(){
|
|||
processArray(results.data)
|
||||
}
|
||||
});
|
||||
})
|
||||
}
|
||||
//elicit()
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
14
src/index.js
14
src/index.js
|
|
@ -9,12 +9,13 @@ import {goodjudgmentopen} from "./goodjudmentopen-fetch.js"
|
|||
import {metaculus} from "./metaculus-fetch.js"
|
||||
import {polymarket} from "./polymarket-fetch.js"
|
||||
import {predictit} from "./predictit-fetch.js"
|
||||
import {omen} from "./omen-fetch.js"
|
||||
|
||||
/* Definitions */
|
||||
let opts = {}
|
||||
let json2csvParser = new Parser({ transforms: [transforms.flatten()]});
|
||||
//let parse = csv => json2csvParser.parse(csv);
|
||||
let sets = ["template", "elicit", "metaculus", "predictit", "polymarket", "csetforetell", "goodjudmentopen"]
|
||||
let sets = ["template", "elicit", "metaculus", "predictit", "polymarket", "csetforetell", "goodjudmentopen", "omen"]
|
||||
let suffix = "-questions"
|
||||
let locationData = "./data/"
|
||||
let sleep = (ms) => new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, ms));
|
||||
|
|
@ -82,9 +83,12 @@ let executeoption = async (option) => {
|
|||
predictit()
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case 7:
|
||||
coverttocsvandmerge()
|
||||
omen()
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case 8:
|
||||
coverttocsvandmerge()
|
||||
break;
|
||||
case 9:
|
||||
await elicit()
|
||||
await sleep(30000) // The user only has 30secs. Not really ideal.
|
||||
await csetforetell()
|
||||
|
|
@ -92,6 +96,7 @@ let executeoption = async (option) => {
|
|||
await metaculus()
|
||||
await polymarket()
|
||||
await predictit()
|
||||
await omen()
|
||||
await coverttocsvandmerge()
|
||||
break;
|
||||
default:
|
||||
|
|
@ -108,7 +113,8 @@ let whattodoMessage = `What do you want to do?
|
|||
[4]: Download predictions from metaculus
|
||||
[5]: Download predictions from polymarket
|
||||
[6]: Download predictions from predictit
|
||||
[7]: Convert predictions to csvs and merge them into one big file (requires steps 1-6)
|
||||
[8]: All of the above
|
||||
[7]: Download predictions from omen
|
||||
[8]: Convert predictions to csvs and merge them into one big file (requires steps 1-7)
|
||||
[9]: All of the above
|
||||
Choose one option, wisely: #`
|
||||
whattodo(whattodoMessage, executeoption)
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
83
src/omen-fetch.js
Normal file
83
src/omen-fetch.js
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,83 @@
|
|||
/* Imports */
|
||||
import fs from 'fs'
|
||||
import axios from "axios"
|
||||
|
||||
/* Definitions */
|
||||
let graphQLendpoint = 'https://api.thegraph.com/subgraphs/name/protofire/omen'
|
||||
// https://github.com/protofire/omen-subgraph
|
||||
// https://thegraph.com/explorer/subgraph/protofire/omen
|
||||
|
||||
async function fetchAllContractData(){
|
||||
let daysSinceEra = Math.round(Date.now()/(1000*24*60*60))-50 // last 30 days
|
||||
let response = await axios({
|
||||
url: graphQLendpoint,
|
||||
method: 'POST',
|
||||
headers: ({ 'Content-Type': 'application/json' }),
|
||||
data: JSON.stringify(({ query: `
|
||||
{
|
||||
fixedProductMarketMakers(first: 1000,
|
||||
where: {
|
||||
lastActiveDay_gt: ${daysSinceEra}
|
||||
}
|
||||
){
|
||||
id
|
||||
lastActiveDay
|
||||
question{
|
||||
title
|
||||
}
|
||||
outcomeSlotCount
|
||||
outcomeTokenMarginalPrices
|
||||
usdVolume
|
||||
usdLiquidityMeasure
|
||||
resolutionTimestamp
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
`
|
||||
})),
|
||||
})
|
||||
.then(res => res.data)
|
||||
.then(res => res.data.fixedProductMarketMakers)
|
||||
//console.log(response)
|
||||
return response
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
async function fetch_all(){
|
||||
let allData = await fetchAllContractData()
|
||||
let results = []
|
||||
for(let data of allData){
|
||||
|
||||
if(data.question!=null &
|
||||
data.usdLiquidityMeasure != '0' &
|
||||
data.resolutionTimestamp == null &
|
||||
data.question.title != "ssdds"){
|
||||
console.log(data)
|
||||
console.log(data.usdLiquidityMeasure)
|
||||
let isbinary = Number(data.outcomeSlotCount) == 2
|
||||
let numYes = Number(data.outcomeTokenMarginalPrices[0])
|
||||
let numNo = Number(data.outcomeTokenMarginalPrices[1])
|
||||
let percentage = (numYes/(numYes+numNo))*100
|
||||
let obj = {
|
||||
Title: data.question.title,
|
||||
URL: "https://omen.eth.link/#/"+data.id,
|
||||
Platform: "Omen",
|
||||
"Binary question?" : isbinary,
|
||||
marginalPrices: data.outcomeTokenMarginalPrices,
|
||||
"Percentage": isbinary?(percentage.toFixed(4) + "%"):"none",
|
||||
}
|
||||
console.log(obj)
|
||||
results.push(obj)
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
}
|
||||
return results
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
/* Body */
|
||||
export async function omen(){
|
||||
let result = await fetch_all()
|
||||
//console.log(result)
|
||||
let string = JSON.stringify(result,null, 2)
|
||||
fs.writeFileSync('./data/omen-questions.json', string);
|
||||
console.log("Done")
|
||||
}
|
||||
//omen()
|
||||
|
|
@ -6,12 +6,19 @@ import axios from "axios"
|
|||
let graphQLendpoint = 'https://subgraph-matic.poly.market/subgraphs/name/TokenUnion/polymarket3'
|
||||
let units = 10**6
|
||||
|
||||
/* Support functions */
|
||||
/* Support functions
|
||||
async function fetchAllContractInfo(){ // for info which the polymarket graphql API
|
||||
let data = fs.readFileSync("./data/polymarket-contract-list.json")
|
||||
let response = JSON.parse(data)
|
||||
return response
|
||||
}
|
||||
*/
|
||||
async function fetchAllContractInfo(){ // for info which the polymarket graphql API
|
||||
let response = await axios.get('https://strapi-matic.poly.market/markets?active=true&_sort=volume:desc')
|
||||
.then(query => query.data);
|
||||
response = response.filter(res => res.closed != true)
|
||||
return response
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
||||
async function fetchAllContractData(){
|
||||
let daysSinceEra = Math.round(Date.now()/(1000*24*60*60))-2
|
||||
|
|
@ -58,13 +65,13 @@ async function fetch_all(){
|
|||
|
||||
let combinedObj = ({})
|
||||
for(let info of allInfo){
|
||||
let address = info.address
|
||||
let address = info.marketMakerAddress
|
||||
let addressLowerCase = address.toLowerCase()
|
||||
//delete info.history
|
||||
combinedObj[addressLowerCase] = {
|
||||
title: info.title,
|
||||
url: info.url,
|
||||
address: info.address
|
||||
title: info.question,
|
||||
url: "https://polymarket.com/market/" + info.slug,
|
||||
address: address
|
||||
}
|
||||
}
|
||||
for(let data of allData){
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
14
src/test.js
Normal file
14
src/test.js
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
|
|||
import fs from 'fs'
|
||||
import axios from "axios"
|
||||
|
||||
let elicitEndpoint = "https://elicit.org/api/v1/binary-questions/csv?binaryQuestions.resolved=false&binaryQuestions.search=&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&predictors=community"
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
let main = async () => {
|
||||
let response = await axios.get(elicitEndpoint)
|
||||
.then(query => query.data)
|
||||
|
||||
console.log(response)
|
||||
|
||||
}
|
||||
main()
|
||||
Loading…
Reference in New Issue
Block a user