metaforecast/data/metaculus-questions.csv

1	Title	URL	Platform	Binary question?	Percentage	# Forecasts
2	Will the Universe end?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/161/will-the-universe-end/	Metaculus	true	70%	548
3	Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/	Metaculus	true	31%	4894
4	Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/	Metaculus	true	60%	789
5	When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	290
6	Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/372/will-human-brain-emulation-be-the-first-successful-route-to-human-level-digital-intelligence/	Metaculus	true	6%	404
7	The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/	Metaculus	true	12%	789
8	Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/	Metaculus	true	61%	906
9	Robocup Challenge	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/397/robocup-challenge/	Metaculus	true	25%	300
10	When will there be machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO construction?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/	Metaculus	false	none	293
11	When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/	Metaculus	false	none	477
12	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/418/when-will-the-first-law-concerning-artificial-intelligence-be-passed-in-the-us/	Metaculus	false	none	422
13	If you die today and get cryonically frozen, will you "wake up"?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/455/if-you-die-today-and-get-cryonically-frozen-will-you-wake-up/	Metaculus	true	6%	530
14	If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/480/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-white-winning/	Metaculus	true	35%	125
15	Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/489/will-the-european-union-meet-its-2030-targets-under-the-paris-climate-treaty/	Metaculus	true	35%	289
16	Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/491/will-china-achieve-its-paris-climate-agreement-goals/	Metaculus	true	65%	263
17	With an international nuclear weapons ban in place, will a country that has nuclear weapons actually give them up by 2035?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/	Metaculus	true	20%	255
18	Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/512/will-an-ai-system-do-credibly-well-on-a-full-math-sat-exam-by-2025/	Metaculus	true	71%	641
19	Will the first commercial hyperloop system be within the US?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/513/will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-be-within-the-us/	Metaculus	true	36%	269
20	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/570/a-major-united-states-earthquake-within-the-next-five-years/	Metaculus	true	33%	515
21	Will humans go extinct by 2100?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/	Metaculus	true	1%	644
22	Will VR or AR Headsets dominate by 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/579/will-vr-or-ar-headsets-dominate-by-2025/	Metaculus	true	50%	248
23	2˚C global warming by 2100?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/	Metaculus	true	89%	358
24	World Population in 2050?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/	Metaculus	false	none	305
25	If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/	Metaculus	false	none	79
26	Increased off-world population in 2050?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/594/off-world-population-in-2050/	Metaculus	true	94%	450
27	Will a sample of negative energy be produced by 2100?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/600/will-a-sample-of-negative-energy-be-produced-by-2100/	Metaculus	true	20%	225
28	Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected within the next 10 years?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/604/will-gravitational-waves-from-the-merger-of-supermassive-black-holes-be-detected-within-the-next-10-years/	Metaculus	true	68%	255
29	How much global warming by 2100?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/605/how-much-global-warming-by-2100/	Metaculus	false	none	454
30	Answer to signal broadcast into space by 2045?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/606/answer-to-signal-broadcast-into-space-by-2045/	Metaculus	true	1%	241
31	Will our current peace be shorter than the Pax Romana?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/610/will-our-current-peace-be-shorter-than-the-pax-romana/	Metaculus	true	53%	354
32	Will there be a Vegan Country by 2100?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/614/will-there-be-a-vegan-country-by-2100/	Metaculus	true	20%	456
33	Will we reach the island of stability by 2050?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/658/will-we-reach-the-island-of-stability-by-2050/	Metaculus	true	45%	196
34	Kessler syndrome by 2050?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/665/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-operational-in-2030/	Metaculus	true	15%	422
35	When will the world create the first Trillionaire?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/	Metaculus	false	none	350
36	By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/684/by-2025-will-someone-be-able-to-hold-hisher-breath-for-30-minutes/	Metaculus	true	15%	228
37	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/685/will-the-us-get-rid-of-the-penny-by-2025/	Metaculus	true	25%	362
38	Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/	Metaculus	true	55.00000000000001%	425
39	When will there be a mile-high building?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/735/when-will-there-be-a-mile-high-building/	Metaculus	false	none	203
40	Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/will-there-be-a-complete-4-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles-before-the-first-1-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles/	Metaculus	true	71%	278
41	Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/737/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-by-2030/	Metaculus	true	85%	1049
42	Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/	Metaculus	true	50%	374
43	Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/804/1000th-binary-question-resolution-is-positive/	Metaculus	true	35%	84
44	Will Europa be the first place humanity will discover extraterrestrial life, if it is discovered by 2045?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/808/will-europa-be-the-first-place-humanity-will-discover-extraterrestrial-life-if-it-is-discovered-by-2045/	Metaculus	true	22%	337
45	Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/809/will-a-member-of-president-trumps-inner-circle-be-sentenced-to-jail-by-2023/	Metaculus	true	90%	315
46	Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/824/will-a-practical-nuclear-fusion-reactor-first-be-developed-in-china/	Metaculus	true	30%	314
47	Will Metaculus exist in 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/841/will-metaculus-exist-in-2030/	Metaculus	true	85%	456
48	Will the world's richest person in 2033 have a net worth greater than that of John D. Rockefeller in 1913?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/899/will-the-worlds-richest-person-in-2033-have-a-net-worth-greater-than-that-of-john-d-rockefeller-in-1913/	Metaculus	true	33%	245
49	Will we discover clear evidence of proton decay by 2040?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/915/will-we-discover-clear-evidence-of-proton-decay-by-2040/	Metaculus	true	30%	150
50	Will another 9/11 on U.S. soil be prevented at least through 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/916/will-another-911-on-us-soil-be-prevented-at-least-through-2030/	Metaculus	true	75%	224
51	Will a space elevator successfully be built by 2100?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/917/will-a-space-elevator-successfully-be-built-by-2100/	Metaculus	true	8%	355
52	When will we get the last communication from Voyager 1?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/943/when-will-we-get-the-last-communication-from-voyager-1/	Metaculus	false	none	112
53	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/953/will-mike-pence-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-in-2024/	Metaculus	true	5%	209
54	Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/	Metaculus	true	16%	1116
55	Will cost-adjusted IT technology be worse than it was 8 years (32 quarters) ago in at least one quarter prior to 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/968/will-cost-adjusted-it-technology-be-worse-than-it-was-8-years-32-quarters-ago-in-at-least-one-quarter-prior-to-2030/	Metaculus	true	26%	126
56	When will commercial supersonic flight return?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/969/when-will-commercial-supersonic-flight-return/	Metaculus	false	none	261
57	Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/	Metaculus	true	23%	540
58	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-by-2024/	Metaculus	true	70%	346
59	Any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1002/any-progress-in-human-lifespan-enhancement-by-2100/	Metaculus	true	90%	297
60	Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/	Metaculus	true	30%	350
61	Will there be a city on Earth with a population of over 100 million by 2100?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1052/will-there-be-a-city-on-earth-with-a-population-of-over-100-million-by-2100/	Metaculus	true	54%	266
62	How long will the Great Pyramids be recognizable?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1056/how-long-will-the-great-pyramids-be-recognizable/	Metaculus	false	none	198
63	Will humanity (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered "under serious threat" by 2040?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1058/will-humanity-essentially-run-out-of-at-least-one-element-currently-considered-under-serious-threat-by-2040/	Metaculus	true	33%	174
64	Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1059/before-2051-will-a-meteor-cause-more-injuries-than-the-one-that-shook-chelyabinsk-russia-in-2013/	Metaculus	true	50%	34
65	Will there be a 9 foot tall human by 2075?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1061/will-there-be-a-9-foot-tall-human-by-2075/	Metaculus	true	25%	217
66	When will the student loan debt bubble "pop"?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1085/when-will-the-student-loan-debt-bubble-pop/	Metaculus	false	none	152
67	When will the last member of our species, homo sapiens, be born?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1088/when-will-the-last-member-of-our-species-homo-sapiens-be-born/	Metaculus	false	none	199
68	Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/	Metaculus	true	38%	277
69	Will Ray Kurzweil be proven right?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1321/will-ray-kurzweil-be-proven-right/	Metaculus	true	25%	190
70	Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1332/will-global-malaria-mortality-rates-be-reduced-by-90-when-compared-with-2015-rates-by-2030/	Metaculus	true	33%	220
71	Drake's Equation 1st Parameter R∗: What is the average rate of formation of suitable stars (stars/year) in our galaxy?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337/drakes-equation-1st-parameter-r/	Metaculus	false	none	228
72	Drake's Equation 2nd parameter f_p: What fraction of stars form planets?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1338/drakes-equation-2nd-parameter-f_p/	Metaculus	false	none	249
73	Drake's Equation 3rd parameter n_e: What is the average number of habitable planets per star?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-3rd-parameter-n_e/	Metaculus	false	none	230
74	Drake's Equation 4th parameter f_l: On what fraction of habitable planets does any form of life emerge?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1340/drakes-equation-4th-parameter-f_l/	Metaculus	false	none	279
75	Drake's Equation 5th parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1341/drakes-equation-5th-parameter-f_i/	Metaculus	false	none	231
76	Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/	Metaculus	false	none	245
77	Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: For how many years does a civilization remain detectable?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1343/drakes-equation-7th-parameter-l/	Metaculus	false	none	226
78	Will a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launch by 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1348/will-a-mission-to-land-a-spacecraft-on-europa-launch-by-2030/	Metaculus	true	40%	129
79	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1385/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-psilocybin-be-a-clinically-approved-treatment-for-end-of-life-anxiety-by-2027/	Metaculus	true	64%	235
80	Will AI progress surprise us?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/	Metaculus	true	75%	468
81	Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1402/will-parker-solar-probe-survive-its-24-loops-around-the-sun-while-getting-just-a-few-million-miles-away-from-the-surface-of-our-star/	Metaculus	true	75%	131
82	Does P = NP? Informally: If the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem be easy to solve?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1408/does-p--np-informally-if-the-solution-to-a-problem-is-easy-to-check-for-correctness-must-the-problem-be-easy-to-solve/	Metaculus	true	3%	194
83	When will one TeraFlOPS cost $1?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1416/when-will-one-teraflops-cost-1/	Metaculus	false	none	139
84	When will a fifth nation be able to launch people into space?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1431/when-will-a-fifth-nation-be-able-to-launch-people-into-space/	Metaculus	false	none	173
85	Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/	Metaculus	true	75%	484
86	Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in colleges in 2025 be ≥10% less than were enrolled in 2015?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1433/will-the-fraction-of-american-18-24-year-olds-enrolled-in-colleges-in-2025-be-10-less-than-were-enrolled-in-2015/	Metaculus	true	20%	182
87	When will India send their first own astronauts to space?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/	Metaculus	false	none	217
88	When will the longest spaceflight of any one person reach 5 years?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1435/when-will-the-longest-spaceflight-of-any-one-person-reach-5-years/	Metaculus	false	none	117
89	Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1444/will-an-openly-lgbtq-person-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-by-2041/	Metaculus	true	15%	176
90	A freer China? Chinese political rights and civil liberties in 2028	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1454/a-freer-china-chinese-political-rights-and-civil-liberties-in-2028/	Metaculus	false	none	146
91	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1457/will-angela-merkel-remain-chancellor-after-the-next-german-federal-elections/	Metaculus	true	3%	290
92	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/	Metaculus	true	90%	277
93	Will we know what Dark Matter is before 2050?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1469/will-we-know-what-dark-matter-is-before-2050/	Metaculus	true	50%	197
94	Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/	Metaculus	true	5%	285
95	Will any intelligent living being (human descendants, aliens, etc.) ever listen to the copy of Blind Willie Johnson's "Dark Was the Night" on Voyager I's Golden Record?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1480/will-any-intelligent-living-being-human-descendants-aliens-etc-ever-listen-to-the-copy-of-blind-willie-johnsons-dark-was-the-night-on-voyager-is-golden-record/	Metaculus	true	4%	172
96	When will either the Democratic or Republican party in the US cease to exist?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1481/when-will-either-the-democratic-or-republican-party-in-the-us-cease-to-exist/	Metaculus	false	none	121
97	What percentage of Americans will be considered obese or overweight in 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1482/what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-considered-obese-or-overweight-in-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	268
98	What will be Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer in 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1492/what-will-be-top500s-1-performing-supercomputer-as-a-multiple-of-the-500-performer-in-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	86
99	Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/	Metaculus	true	24%	231
100	Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/	Metaculus	true	27%	183
101	Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/	Metaculus	true	20%	241
102	Will the eventual consensus explanation of star KIC 8462852 variability be an intervening molecular cloud?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1497/will-the-eventual-consensus-explanation-of-star-kic-8462852-variability-be-an-intervening-molecular-cloud/	Metaculus	true	30%	53
103	Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/	Metaculus	true	15%	279
104	Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/	Metaculus	true	3%	130
105	Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/	Metaculus	true	26%	183
106	How many NASA "space launch system" (SLS) launches before 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1503/how-many-nasa-space-launch-system-sls-launches-before-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	180
107	Do humans have functionally important neurogenesis throughout their life?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1515/do-humans-have-functionally-important-neurogenesis-throughout-their-life/	Metaculus	true	65%	131
108	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1517/will-the-identity-of-bitcoins-founder-satoshi-nakamoto-be-revealed-to-the-general-public-by-2025/	Metaculus	true	8%	407
109	When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/	Metaculus	false	none	265
110	Will most protons that currently make up Earth (and you) eventually decay?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1535/will-most-protons-that-currently-make-up-earth-and-you-eventually-decay/	Metaculus	true	50%	64
111	Will a third LIGO detector be built in India by 2027?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1536/will-a-third-ligo-detector-be-built-in-india-by-2027/	Metaculus	true	50%	75
112	When will the first cloned human be born?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1537/when-will-the-first-cloned-human-be-born/	Metaculus	false	none	150
113	Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1538/will-metaculus-predict-that-artificial-intelligence-continues-to-pose-a-global-catastrophic-risk/	Metaculus	true	73%	104
114	3.6°C global warming by 2100?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1539/36c-global-warming-by-2100/	Metaculus	true	31%	125
115	Is non-theism (atheists and agnostics) growing globally?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1552/is-non-theism-atheists-and-agnostics-growing-globally/	Metaculus	false	none	179
116	The Rise and Fall of the Banana: Will the current main export cultivar, the Cavendish, be replaced by 2035?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1558/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-banana-will-the-current-main-export-cultivar-the-cavendish-be-replaced-by-2035/	Metaculus	true	49%	123
117	Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1568/will-we-detect-an-exoplanet-atmosphere-with-5-oxygen-atmosphere-by-2030/	Metaculus	true	55.00000000000001%	153
118	What will the World's GDP be in 2028?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1574/what-will-the-worlds-gdp-be-in-2028/	Metaculus	false	none	128
119	Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1576/fewer-than-375m-in-extreme-poverty-by-2030/	Metaculus	true	25%	179
120	Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/	Metaculus	true	89%	396
121	When will the first publicly traded company achieve a $10 trillion market capitalisation?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1584/when-will-the-first-publicly-traded-company-achieve-a-10-trillion-market-capitalisation/	Metaculus	false	none	118
122	Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/	Metaculus	true	5%	143
123	Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1591/will-the-impact-of-the-effective-altruism-movement-be-picked-up-by-google-trends-in-2030/	Metaculus	true	80%	105
124	What year will the 2˚C climate threshold be crossed?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1596/what-year-will-the-2c-climate-threshold-be-crossed/	Metaculus	false	none	136
125	Will Elon Musk (attempt to) go to Mars?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1598/will-elon-musk-attempt-to-go-to-mars/	Metaculus	true	30%	385
126	The Top500's total sum in 2030 as a multiple of the total sum in 2015	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1600/the-top500s-total-sum-in-2030-as-a-multiple-of-the-total-sum-in-2015/	Metaculus	false	none	126
127	Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/	Metaculus	true	1%	139
128	Is the Zuma satellite still in orbit?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1618/is-the-zuma-satellite-still-in-orbit/	Metaculus	true	42%	116
129	When will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/	Metaculus	false	none	123
130	What will be the heaviest payload put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service at start of 2050?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1620/what-will-be-the-heaviest-payload-put-into-leo-by-a-launch-vehicle-that-is-in-service-at-start-of-2050/	Metaculus	false	none	69
131	Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the United States Food and Drug Administration before January 1 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1621/will-a-senolytic-therapy-be-approved-for-commercial-sale-by-the-united-states-food-and-drug-administration-before-january-1-2030/	Metaculus	true	60%	177
132	Will a mouse be confirmed to have lived for 2,500 days before 1 January 2035?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1624/will-a-mouse-be-confirmed-to-have-lived-for-2500-days-before-1-january-2035/	Metaculus	true	50%	177
133	By 1 January 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1625/by-1-january-2050-will-it-be-possible-to-increase-a-healthy-adult-humans-iq-by-at-least-two-standard-deviations-in-less-than-30-days/	Metaculus	true	20%	165
134	Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/	Metaculus	true	8%	224
135	What will be the longest verified human lifespan on record on January 1 2050?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1628/what-will-be-the-longest-verified-human-lifespan-on-record-on-january-1-2050/	Metaculus	false	none	172
136	Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/	Metaculus	true	5%	238
137	What percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1630/what-percentage-of-us-residents-will-be-aged-100-years-or-older-on-january-1-2050/	Metaculus	false	none	77
138	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1631/will-cuba-still-be-a-communist-state-in-2023/	Metaculus	true	90%	216
139	Will US income inequality increase by 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1634/will-us-income-inequality-increase-by-2025/	Metaculus	true	50%	212
140	When will a crewed spacecraft enter interstellar space for the first time?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1637/when-will-a-crewed-spacecraft-enter-interstellar-space-for-the-first-time/	Metaculus	false	none	181
141	Will Alex Jones ever hold high Federal office in the United States before 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1638/will-alex-jones-ever-hold-high-federal-office-in-the-united-states-before-2030/	Metaculus	true	1%	221
142	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/	Metaculus	true	26%	225
143	Will it once again be possible to travel between London and New York City by any commercially available means in under three hours by 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1642/will-it-once-again-be-possible-to-travel-between-london-and-new-york-city-by-any-commercially-available-means-in-under-three-hours-by-2030/	Metaculus	true	34%	266
144	Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/	Metaculus	true	99%	368
145	Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1644/will-a-von-neumann-probe-be-launched-before-2050/	Metaculus	true	16%	70
146	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/	Metaculus	true	7.000000000000001%	227
147	Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1646/will-the-human-condition-change-fundamentally-before-2100/	Metaculus	true	75%	135
148	What will be the greatest velocity attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1648/what-will-be-the-greatest-velocity-attained-by-a-human-made-spacecraft-before-2050/	Metaculus	false	none	117
149	Will the Second Amendment to the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1650/will-the-second-amendment-to-the-united-states-constitution-be-amended-or-repealed-before-2025/	Metaculus	true	1%	150
150	A breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1651/a-breakthrough-in-accurately-predicting-protein-structure-before-2031/	Metaculus	true	99%	282
151	Will functional respirocytes be used successfully in any mammal before 2035?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1653/will-functional-respirocytes-be-used-successfully-in-any-mammal-before-2035/	Metaculus	true	40%	115
152	When will the average survival rate of all cancers exceed 75%?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1654/when-will-the-average-survival-rate-of-all-cancers-exceed-75/	Metaculus	false	none	125
153	When will there be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1655/when-will-there-be-a-breakthrough-in-the-treatment-of-hard-to-treat-cancers/	Metaculus	false	none	120
154	When will the 10,000th human reach space?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/	Metaculus	false	none	142
155	Will any asteroid or comet have been mined in space for commercial purposes before 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1662/will-any-asteroid-or-comet-have-been-mined-in-space-for-commercial-purposes-before-2030/	Metaculus	true	10%	220
156	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1663/will-the-usas-labor-force-participation-rate-be-lower-in-2023-than-in-2018/	Metaculus	true	70%	173
157	When will Reuters journalists Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo be released from prison?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1667/when-will-reuters-journalists-wa-lone-and-kyaw-soe-oo-be-released-from-prison/	Metaculus	false	none	29
158	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1669/if-the-james-webb-space-telescope-is-launched-will-it-succeed-in-transmitting-cosmological-data/	Metaculus	true	90%	160
159	Will George R. R. Martin die before the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire is published?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1681/will-george-r-r-martin-die-before-the-final-book-of-a-song-of-ice-and-fire-is-published/	Metaculus	true	73%	310
160	When will PHP die?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/	Metaculus	false	none	92
161	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/	Metaculus	true	60%	339
162	Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/	Metaculus	true	56.99999999999999%	152
163	Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/	Metaculus	true	5%	105
164	Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2518/will-there-be-another-vei-level-six-or-higher-volcanic-eruption-on-earth-before-2025/	Metaculus	true	5%	138
165	When will the first human be born on another world?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2533/when-will-the-first-human-be-born-on-another-world/	Metaculus	false	none	157
166	Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/	Metaculus	true	15%	554
167	When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2536/when-will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-resolved/	Metaculus	false	none	127
168	Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2561/will-a-metaculus-user-report-from-space-before-2050/	Metaculus	true	61%	172
169	What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2563/what-will-the-atmospheric-co2-concentration-be-in-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	165
170	When will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach 60 years in all countries?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2575/when-will-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-reach-60-years-in-all-countries/	Metaculus	false	none	141
171	When will a DUI be overruled or turned down due to riding a driverless car?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2576/when-will-a-dui-be-overruled-or-turned-down-due-to-riding-a-driverless-car/	Metaculus	false	none	76
172	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/	Metaculus	true	20%	566
173	Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2578/will-an-airborne-wind-energy-system-of-at-least-100kw-be-sold-before-2022/	Metaculus	true	40%	70
174	When will India become a World Bank high-income country?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2582/when-will-india-become-a-world-bank-high-income-country/	Metaculus	false	none	145
175	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2585/when-will-the-us-national-debt-reach-25-trillion/	Metaculus	false	none	302
176	When will we have micropayments?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2592/when-will-we-have-micropayments/	Metaculus	false	none	78
177	When will North Korea have a McDonald's?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2593/when-will-north-korea-have-a-mcdonalds/	Metaculus	false	none	105
178	Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2598/metaculus-web-app-by-2024/	Metaculus	true	60%	52
179	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2599/will-any-of-the-20-most-valuable-public-companies-in-the-united-states-as-of-january-2019-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2025/	Metaculus	true	23%	207
180	Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2605/will-any-countrys-military-expenditure-exceed-that-of-the-united-states-before-2030/	Metaculus	true	7.000000000000001%	173
181	Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2606/ai-to-prompt-new-starcraft/	Metaculus	true	27%	50
182	Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2611/will-synthetic-biological-weapons-infect-100-people-by-2030/	Metaculus	true	39%	138
183	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone by 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2616/will-any-member-state-leave-the-eurozone-by-2025/	Metaculus	true	18%	193
184	When will Haiti become an upper middle-income country?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2617/when-will-haiti-become-an-upper-middle-income-country/	Metaculus	false	none	89
185	Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/	Metaculus	true	25%	263
186	What will be the highest level of annual GDP growth in the US before 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	122
187	Will Nigeria's population exceed 400 million before 2050?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2632/will-nigerias-population-exceed-400-million-before-2050/	Metaculus	true	40%	130
188	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2638/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-2-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/	Metaculus	true	65%	286
189	When will a robot poker player win a significant live (not online) competition?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2641/when-will-a-robot-poker-player-win-a-significant-live-not-online-competition/	Metaculus	false	none	147
190	When will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversary?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/	Metaculus	false	none	152
191	A tech boom to surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more by 2024?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2645/a-tech-boom-to-surpass-the-dotcom-bubble-for-one-quarter-or-more-by-2024/	Metaculus	true	69%	270
192	What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2646/what-will-the-necessary-computational-power-to-replicate-human-mental-capability-turn-out-to-be/	Metaculus	false	none	196
193	Will the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) be finished on time?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2649/will-the-square-kilometre-array-ska-be-finished-on-time/	Metaculus	true	30%	102
194	Will Volkswagen Group produce fewer than 22 million electric vehicles by 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2665/will-volkswagen-group-produce-fewer-than-22-million-electric-vehicles-by-2030/	Metaculus	true	63%	91
195	Will Germany fail to meet their coal commission’s goals?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2666/will-germany-fail-to-meet-their-coal-commissions-goals/	Metaculus	true	65%	81
196	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2669/will-world-gdp-grow-every-year-until-2025/	Metaculus	true	1%	720
197	Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2671/will-the-united-states-fulfill-its-goal-of-landing-humans-on-the-moon-again-before-2025/	Metaculus	true	24%	768
198	Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2709/will-the-international-thermonuclear-experimental-reactor-iter-start-operating-by-end-of-2025/	Metaculus	true	17%	144
199	Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income introduced in any EU country before 2041?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/	Metaculus	true	75%	153
200	Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2713/will-there-be-more-people-with-hivaids-in-2037-than-in-2017/	Metaculus	true	20%	194
201	Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/	Metaculus	true	32%	83
202	Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated by 2050?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2751/will-the-text-of-the-voynich-manuscript-be-successfully-translated-by-2050/	Metaculus	true	40%	113
203	Will Apollo 10's Lunar Module be recovered by 2050?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2762/will-apollo-10s-lunar-module-be-recovered-by-2050/	Metaculus	true	7.000000000000001%	96
204	When will the first successful entirely artificial extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2769/when-will-the-first-successful-entirely-artificial-extracorporeal-human-pregnancy-conclude/	Metaculus	false	none	69
205	How far away will the closest known Black Hole lay in 2031?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2771/how-far-away-will-the-closest-known-black-hole-lay-in-2031/	Metaculus	false	none	28
206	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2773/will-nigel-farage-become-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-before-2023/	Metaculus	true	1%	200
207	How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	211
208	At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2783/at-the-end-of-2023-will-animal-charity-evaluators-recommend-a-charity-working-on-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-as-a-top-charity/	Metaculus	true	80%	152
209	By 2025, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2788/by-2025-will-laws-be-in-place-requiring-that-ai-systems-that-emulate-humans-must-reveal-to-people-that-they-are-ai/	Metaculus	true	65%	122
210	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-launch-a-person-to-the-moon-before-2024/	Metaculus	true	4%	175
211	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2024?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2024/	Metaculus	true	94%	219
212	When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/	Metaculus	false	none	108
213	Is the Collatz Conjecture true?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/	Metaculus	true	95%	147
214	Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/	Metaculus	true	92%	77
215	If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/	Metaculus	false	none	141
216	When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/	Metaculus	false	none	56
217	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2807/will-the-uk-housing-market-crash-before-july-2023/	Metaculus	true	15%	339
218	If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2812/if-a-whole-human-brain-is-successfully-emulated-by-2100-what-is-the-maximum-number-of-humans-that-will-be-uploaded-in-any-5-year-period/	Metaculus	false	none	108
219	When will the first whole human brain be successfully emulated?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/	Metaculus	false	none	127
220	In 2029, will the US have as many or fewer nuclear warheads than it did in 2019?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2817/us-having-fewer-nukes-in-2029-than-2019/	Metaculus	true	70%	147
221	When will NASA's SLS first launch a person to the Moon?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-first-launch-a-person-to-the-moon/	Metaculus	false	none	111
222	If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2820/if-the-us-does-not-pursue-nuclear-disarmament-how-many-nuclear-warheads-will-it-have-in-2029/	Metaculus	false	none	71
223	If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2822/if-and-when-the-first-whole-human-brain-is-successfully-emulated-how-much-will-1-hour-of-subjective-run-time-cost/	Metaculus	false	none	103
224	Will there be another case of smallpox by the end of 2029?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2823/will-there-be-another-case-of-smallpox-by-the-end-of-2029/	Metaculus	true	9%	134
225	When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2898/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-10-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/	Metaculus	true	35%	79
226	Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/	Metaculus	true	45%	91
227	How many deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the year 2035?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2942/how-many-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-in-the-us-in-the-year-2035/	Metaculus	false	none	47
228	When will the global adult literacy rate reach 95%?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2943/when-will-the-global-adult-literacy-rate-reach-95/	Metaculus	false	none	91
229	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the end of 2023?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2944/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-the-end-of-2023/	Metaculus	false	none	181
230	How many biological humans will be alive on the 31st of December 2300, conditional on there being more than 500M?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2954/how-many-biological-humans-will-be-alive-on-the-31st-of-december-2300-conditional-on-there-being-more-than-500m/	Metaculus	false	none	130
231	When will Elon Musk have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2955/when-will-elon-musk-have-any-device-such-as-a-brain-machine-interface-surgically-implanted-into-his-brain/	Metaculus	false	none	181
232	In 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3019/in-2029-how-many-small-firearms-per-capita-will-there-be-in-the-usa-according-to-the-small-arms-survey/	Metaculus	false	none	154
233	When will an AI pass the laugh test?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/	Metaculus	false	none	95
234	Will the significant discrepancies in Hubble parameter determinations be resolved by 2030 within the ΛCDM standard cosmological model?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3021/will-the-significant-discrepancies-in-hubble-parameter-determinations-be-resolved-by-2030-within-the-%25CE%25BBcdm-standard-cosmological-model/	Metaculus	true	50%	48
235	If there is a biotechnological or bioengineered organism catastrophe this century, when will it happen?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3023/if-there-is-a-biotechnological-or-bioengineered-organism-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/	Metaculus	false	none	61
236	When will the first human baby from stem cell-derived gametes be born?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3034/when-will-the-first-human-baby-from-stem-cell-derived-gametes-be-born/	Metaculus	false	none	80
237	When will the odds ratio of Metaculus' community prediction of the chance of AI catastrophe by 2100 either half or double from its value on 2019-08-21?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3040/when-will-the-odds-ratio-of-metaculus-community-prediction-of-the-chance-of-ai-catastrophe-by-2100-either-half-or-double-from-its-value-on-2019-08-21/	Metaculus	false	none	54
238	Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3042/will-wildfires-destroy-a-total-exceeding-10mha-of-global-tree-cover-in-any-year-by-the-end-of-2030/	Metaculus	true	43%	65
239	When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3044/when-will-any-country-have-a-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-of-at-least-100-years/	Metaculus	false	none	120
240	When will the first organ from a non-primate be successfully transplanted into a human?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3052/when-will-the-first-organ-from-a-non-primate-be-successfully-transplanted-into-a-human/	Metaculus	false	none	99
241	How many hours will the average American employee work per week in 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3054/how-many-hours-will-the-average-american-employee-work-per-week-in-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	79
242	When will a generative model produce a realistic 2-minute video, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3056/when-will-a-generative-model-produce-a-realistic-2-minute-video-at-a-256--256-resolution-or-better/	Metaculus	false	none	71
243	When will there be a publicly listed clean meat company?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/	Metaculus	false	none	179
244	When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/	Metaculus	false	none	123
245	How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/	Metaculus	false	none	120
246	How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027, in millions of USD?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3065/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2027-in-millions-of-usd/	Metaculus	false	none	94
247	How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030, in millions of USD?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3077/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2030-in-millions-of-usd/	Metaculus	false	none	83
248	How many Starlink satellites will be in operation at the end of 2027?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3078/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-in-operation-at-the-end-of-2027/	Metaculus	false	none	178
249	When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3081/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-20-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/	Metaculus	false	none	102
250	What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/	Metaculus	false	none	210
251	When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3086/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-80-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/	Metaculus	false	none	67
252	When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3087/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-20-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/	Metaculus	false	none	100
253	When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3088/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-80-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/	Metaculus	false	none	117
254	What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3091/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023/	Metaculus	false	none	122
255	What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2028?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3095/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2028/	Metaculus	false	none	51
256	What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2026?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3103/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2026/	Metaculus	false	none	86
257	What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2029?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3104/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2029/	Metaculus	false	none	84
258	When will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours, before Sep 15 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3106/when-will-a-discernible-coordinated-bitcoin-mining-pool-attain-50-of-the-hashing-power-for-24-hours-before-sep-15-2025/	Metaculus	false	none	83
259	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3107/how-much-will-the-total-us-plant-based-milk-market-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023-in-millions-of-usd/	Metaculus	false	none	85
260	How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3108/how-much-will-the-total-us-plant-based-foods-market-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023-in-millions-of-usd/	Metaculus	false	none	145
261	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before Sep 18th of 2024?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3109/will-general-electric-ge-file-for-chapter-7-or-chapter-11-bankruptcy-before-sep-18th-of-2024/	Metaculus	true	25%	126
262	Will Mars have a permanent population of 10,000 before the Moon does?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3112/will-mars-have-a-permanent-population-of-10000-before-the-moon-does/	Metaculus	true	35%	216
263	How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/	Metaculus	false	none	126
264	How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is between $8 and $20 per kg?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3115/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-between-8-and-20-per-kg/	Metaculus	false	none	142
265	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/	Metaculus	true	79%	138
266	How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3120/how-many-publicly-traded-us-or-eu-based-plant-based-meat-producers-will-be-valued-at-1bn-or-more-on-october-4th-2023/	Metaculus	false	none	71
267	When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/	Metaculus	false	none	105
268	Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3000 in any calendar year before (and including) 2031?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3124/will-us-non-overseas-contingency-operations-military-deaths-exceed-3000-in-any-calendar-year-before-and-including-2031/	Metaculus	true	20%	91
269	Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3125/will-the-united-states-continue-to-be-among-the-20-countries-with-the-largest-deterioration-in-state-stability-over-the-2019-2029-period-according-to-the-fragile-states-index/	Metaculus	true	55.00000000000001%	46
270	Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/	Metaculus	true	10%	83
271	When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/	Metaculus	false	none	70
272	How much will be estimated to have been invested by VCs in U.S.-based plant-based meat startups, in millions of USD, in the calendar year 2022?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3138/how-much-will-be-estimated-to-have-been-invested-by-vcs-in-us-based-plant-based-meat-startups-in-millions-of-usd-in-the-calendar-year-2022/	Metaculus	false	none	122
273	When will a genetic change cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/	Metaculus	false	none	87
274	When will 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3141/when-will-100-people-or-more-be-in-space-or-on-any-astronomical-body-other-than-earth-simultaneously/	Metaculus	false	none	206
275	By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/	Metaculus	false	none	217
276	What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3144/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2025/	Metaculus	false	none	78
277	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2035?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3150/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2035/	Metaculus	true	79%	172
278	How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3153/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-greater-than-20-per-kg/	Metaculus	false	none	125
279	If DNA alterations continue to require FDA approval by default, how many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be determined as safe to eat, by the end of July 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3155/if-dna-alterations-continue-to-require-fda-approval-by-default-how-many-intentionally-genomic-dna-altered-animals-will-be-determined-as-safe-to-eat-by-the-end-of-july-2025/	Metaculus	false	none	62
280	If there is a no-deal Brexit, what will be the average yearly % GDP growth of the UK in the subsequent five years?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3156/if-there-is-a-no-deal-brexit-what-will-be-the-average-yearly--gdp-growth-of-the-uk-in-the-subsequent-five-years/	Metaculus	false	none	33
281	Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3158/will-the-first-extraterrestrial-life-forms-we-encounter-be-carbon-based/	Metaculus	true	70%	120
282	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3159/will-wework-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-1-january-2025/	Metaculus	true	67%	372
283	What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3191/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	73
284	When will the milk of cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless be for sale in the United States?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3192/when-will-the-milk-of-cows-whose-dna-is-intentionally-altered-to-be-hornless-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/	Metaculus	false	none	82
285	If DNA alterations continue to require approval by default, when will the FDA find at least ten genetically edited animals as safe to eat?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3201/if-dna-alterations-continue-to-require-approval-by-default-when-will-the-fda-find-at-least-ten-genetically-edited-animals-as-safe-to-eat/	Metaculus	false	none	84
286	When will beef for human consumption, from cattle genetically edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3202/when-will-beef-for-human-consumption-from-cattle-genetically-edited-to-carry-a-copy-of-the-sry-gene-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/	Metaculus	false	none	72
287	What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3205/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/	Metaculus	false	none	91
288	Who will first land a person on Mars?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/	Metaculus	false	none	224
289	What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 7th Assessment Report?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3233/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-7th-assessment-report/	Metaculus	false	none	76
290	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until 1 January 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3238/will-turkey-be-a-nato-member-continuously-until-1-january-2025/	Metaculus	true	80%	176
291	When will a clean meat flavoring product be approved for human consumption?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3239/when-will-a-clean-meat-flavoring-product-be-approved-for-human-consumption/	Metaculus	false	none	90
292	Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3241/will-the-iau-rework-its-definition-of-planetary-status-by-jan-1-2025/	Metaculus	true	25%	65
293	Will Robert Caro's fifth and final volume of his Lyndon Johnson biography be published during his lifetime?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3244/will-robert-caros-fifth-and-final-volume-of-his-lyndon-johnson-biography-be-published-during-his-lifetime/	Metaculus	true	53%	85
294	What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3245/what-will-be-the-us-average-weekly-hours-of-all-employees-total-non-farm-private-in-october-2025/	Metaculus	false	none	128
295	In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced annually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3246/in-what-year-will-the-total-number-of-hen-eggs-produced-annually-in-the-us-be-100-billion-or-less/	Metaculus	false	none	86
296	How many billions of hen eggs will be produced in the U.S. in the year ending in November 2023?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3247/how-many-billions-of-hen-eggs-will-be-produced-in-the-us-in-the-year-ending-in-november-2023/	Metaculus	false	none	146
297	How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3248/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2022-2024-period/	Metaculus	false	none	121
298	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon, if the feat is achieved by the end of 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3251/will-israel-be-the-fourth-country-to-soft-land-on-the-moon-if-the-feat-is-achieved-by-the-end-of-2025/	Metaculus	true	30%	124
299	Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3252/will-the-brexit-party-win-any-seats-at-the-next-uk-general-election/	Metaculus	true	20%	125
300	When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 sites?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3271/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-70-sites/	Metaculus	false	none	174
301	When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/	Metaculus	false	none	142
302	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3275/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-130-sites/	Metaculus	false	none	88
303	What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3277/what-will-be-the-average-overall-global-health-security-index-score-for-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	28
304	How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3289/how-many-gene-edited-babies-will-have-been-born-worldwide-by-the-end-of-2029/	Metaculus	false	none	118
305	What fraction of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3290/what-fraction-of-babies-born-in-the-us-in-2029-will-have-been-conceived-in-vitro/	Metaculus	false	none	72
306	How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2028 to 2030 period?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3324/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2028-to-2030-period/	Metaculus	false	none	61
307	How many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3325/how-many-billions-of-poultry-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030-according-to-fao-estimates/	Metaculus	false	none	87
308	When will most eggs produced in the USA be sexed before hatching?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/	Metaculus	false	none	86
309	If Sanders becomes president in 2020, how many unsheltered homeless people will there be in the US at the end of his term?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3328/if-sanders-becomes-president-in-2020-how-many-unsheltered-homeless-people-will-there-be-in-the-us-at-the-end-of-his-term/	Metaculus	false	none	97
310	Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-emulated-before-2200/	Metaculus	true	50%	62
311	When will the first person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or uploaded?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3331/when-will-the-first-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-uploaded/	Metaculus	false	none	96
312	Will James Bedford be revived or emulated before 2200?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3332/will-james-bedford-be-revived-or-emulated-before-2200/	Metaculus	true	5%	66
313	When will the number of people in cryopreservation preserved before 2019 fall to less than 50% of the current value?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3333/when-will-the-number-of-people-in-cryopreservation-preserved-before-2019-fall-to-less-than-50-of-the-current-value/	Metaculus	false	none	59
314	When will a major U.S. supermarket sell “no-kill eggs” in at least 25 states?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3335/when-will-a-major-us-supermarket-sell-no-kill-eggs-in-at-least-25-states/	Metaculus	false	none	78
315	What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/	Metaculus	false	none	186
316	When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3338/when-will-hong-kong-stop-being-a-special-administrative-region-of-china/	Metaculus	false	none	185
317	If Labour wins the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3340/if-labour-wins-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/	Metaculus	false	none	11
318	If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3341/if-conservatives-win-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/	Metaculus	false	none	161
319	How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/	Metaculus	false	none	127
320	What will be the exponent of the fastest known polynomial-time matrix multiplication algorithm in 2029?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3343/what-will-be-the-exponent-of-the-fastest-known-polynomial-time-matrix-multiplication-algorithm-in-2029/	Metaculus	false	none	107
321	What the percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3344/what-the-percentage-of-egg-laying-hens-will-be-cage-free-in-the-us-in-june-2025/	Metaculus	false	none	120
322	Will Guinea Worm be eradicated by the end of 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3351/will-guinea-worm-be-eradicated-by-the-end-of-2030/	Metaculus	true	60%	57
323	When will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of Polio?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3353/when-will-the-who-certify-the-worldwide-eradication-of-polio/	Metaculus	false	none	94
324	What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3357/what-will-the-mean-of-the-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-of-the-all-500-supercomputers-in-the-top500-be-in-the-three-year-period-ending-in-november-2023/	Metaculus	false	none	110
325	Will there be a vegetarian U.S. president by the end of 2036?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3359/will-there-be-a-vegetarian-us-president-by-the-end-of-2036/	Metaculus	true	14.000000000000002%	207
326	Will ≥8% of U.S. adults self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before 2036?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3360/will-8-of-us-adults-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-before-2036/	Metaculus	true	79%	220
327	Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3361/will-the-mean-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-in-the-top500-decline-each-3-year-period-from-2025-to-2034/	Metaculus	true	49%	38
328	Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3364/will-metaculus-or-a-licensed-derivative-be-operated-as-a-public-site-by-a-publicly-traded-company-by-2030/	Metaculus	true	16%	57
329	What will SpaceX be worth by 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	370
330	By the end of 2029, will the European Union require commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3371/by-the-end-of-2029-will-the-european-union-require-commercially-farmed-fish-to-be-stunned-before-being-slaughtered/	Metaculus	true	25%	71
331	How many countries will be awarded a B or better for farm animal welfare protection by to the Animal Protection Index by end of 2022?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3373/how-many-countries-will-be-awarded-a-b-or-better-for-farm-animal-welfare-protection-by-to-the-animal-protection-index-by-end-of-2022/	Metaculus	false	none	23
332	Will the either the USA or China improve on their score on an the Animal Protection Index indicator for recognition of animal sentience, by the end 2022?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3374/will-the-either-the-usa-or-china-improve-on-their-score-on-an-the-animal-protection-index-indicator-for-recognition-of-animal-sentience-by-the-end-2022/	Metaculus	true	34%	28
333	When will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue from edible insect product sales alone, in a single year?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3375/when-will-a-company-in-any-country-generate-50m-revenue-from-edible-insect-product-sales-alone-in-a-single-year/	Metaculus	false	none	84
334	When will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3380/when-will-at-least-750-companies-pledge-to-maintain-a-supply-chain-consistent-with-the-current-basic-global-animal-partnership-standards-for-broiler-chickens-by-end-of-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	89
335	When will 5,000 companies worldwide pledge to remove cages from their egg supply chains?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3381/when-will-5000-companies-worldwide-pledge-to-remove-cages-from-their-egg-supply-chains/	Metaculus	false	none	74
336	What will the earliest preservation date of any resuscitated cryonics patient be?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/	Metaculus	false	none	86
337	What will the largest number of digits of π to have been computed be, by the end of 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3384/what-will-the-largest-number-of-digits-of-%25CF%2580-to-have-been-computed-be-by-the-end-of-2025/	Metaculus	false	none	171
338	Will humanity maintain a continuous off-Earth presence until 2050?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3385/will-humanity-maintain-a-continuous-off-earth-presence-until-2050/	Metaculus	true	75%	219
339	Will a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3386/will-a-us-consumer-be-unable-to-purchase-a-cavendish-banana-at-a-major-us-grocery-chain-on-2029-12-31/	Metaculus	true	24%	69
340	What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegan diet in 2028?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3388/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegan-diet-in-2028/	Metaculus	false	none	213
341	What percentage of fish produced worldwide will be stunned prior to slaughter, in the first year in which credible estimates are published in the five year period starting in 2027	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3389/what-percentage-of-fish-produced-worldwide-will-be-stunned-prior-to-slaughter-in-the-first-year-in-which-credible-estimates-are-published-in-the-five-year-period-starting-in-2027/	Metaculus	false	none	43
342	Will DNA testing vindicate Jeanne Calment as the oldest recorded person in history?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3393/will-dna-testing-vindicate-jeanne-calment-as-the-oldest-recorded-person-in-history/	Metaculus	true	40%	145
343	Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater reduction in the national rate of obesity for 3 consecutive years before 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/large-obesity-drop-in-oecd-country-by-2030/	Metaculus	true	15%	166
344	When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3399/when-will-the-last-metaculus-question-resolution-occur/	Metaculus	false	none	94
345	Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3409/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2020-to-2023-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/	Metaculus	true	11%	87
346	Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3410/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2024-to-2027-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/	Metaculus	true	8%	79
347	How many millions of pigs will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3414/how-many-millions-of-pigs-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	92
348	Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/	Metaculus	true	10%	418
349	Will the next President of the United States be impeached?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/will-the-next-president-of-the-united-states-be-impeached/	Metaculus	true	9%	208
350	In the year 2028, how many tonnes of insect protein will be used as animal feed for livestock, poultry and fish in Europe?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3421/in-the-year-2028-how-many-tonnes-of-insect-protein-will-be-used-as-animal-feed-for-livestock-poultry-and-fish-in-europe/	Metaculus	false	none	60
351	On December 1st, 2023 how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3422/on-december-1st-2023-how-many-companies-worldwide-will-pledge-uphold-gap-standards-for-broiler-chickens-raised-for-meat/	Metaculus	false	none	121
352	Will 100 gigagrams of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3429/will-100-gigagrams-of-sulphur-be-injected-into-the-atmosphere-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/	Metaculus	true	5%	73
353	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3431/will-the-dai-stablecoin-maintain-a-value-of-roughly-1-until-july-2023/	Metaculus	true	60%	102
354	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3433/will-an-ocean-be-fertilised-with-at-least-50-tonnes-of-iron-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/	Metaculus	true	21%	99
355	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/	Metaculus	true	55.00000000000001%	284
356	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3445/will-kim-jong-un-still-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-north-korea-on-1-january-2022/	Metaculus	true	90%	1208
357	When will two or more supermarkets sell products made of ≥20% clean fish in their physical retail stores in at least 25 U.S. states?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3447/when-will-two-or-more-supermarkets-sell-products-made-of-20-clean-fish-in-their-physical-retail-stores-in-at-least-25-us-states/	Metaculus	false	none	81
358	How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3452/how-much-forest-coverage-loss-will-occur-in-brazil-over-the-three-year-period-starting-from-2020/	Metaculus	false	none	147
359	What is the largest amount of iron that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3457/what-is-the-largest-amount-of-iron-that-will-be-used-to-fertilise-an-ocean-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2026/	Metaculus	false	none	70
360	Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3458/will-there-be-a-culturally-significant-development-in-aging-research-by-2030/	Metaculus	true	68%	126
361	Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3460/will-there-be-at-least-200-companies-developing-technologies-to-defeat-aging-by-2025/	Metaculus	true	88%	125
362	At what point will at least ten technologies listed on "The Rejuvenation Roadmap" be released to the public?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3461/at-what-point-will-at-least-ten-technologies-listed-on-the-rejuvenation-roadmap-be-released-to-the-public/	Metaculus	false	none	72
363	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3469/will-the-united-states-institute-a-military-draft-by-2025/	Metaculus	true	2%	133
364	When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3474/when-will-queen-elizabeth-ii-cease-to-be-queen-of-the-united-kingdom/	Metaculus	false	none	306
365	If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3477/if-human-level-artificial-intelligence-is-developed-will-world-gdp-grow-by-at-least-300-in-any-of-the-subsequent-15-years/	Metaculus	true	77%	104
366	How many patients will be in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3478/how-many-patients-will-be-in-cryonic-suspension-at-the-cryonics-institute-in-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	90
367	When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/	Metaculus	false	none	407
368	Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3481/will-no-crispr-edited-babies-be-born-in-the-year-2020/	Metaculus	true	91%	294
369	Will EQRx get at least one drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3507/will-eqrx-get-at-least-one-drug-approved-by-the-fda-before-the-end-of-2030/	Metaculus	true	40%	46
370	When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3508/when-will-trikafta-become-available-for-cystic-fibrosis-patients-on-the-nhs-england/	Metaculus	false	none	64
371	When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/	Metaculus	false	none	143
372	Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/	Metaculus	true	8%	157
373	When will we be able to predict at least 10% of variance in Big Five agreeableness based on genetic information alone?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3518/when-will-we-be-able-to-predict-at-least-10-of-variance-in-big-five-agreeableness-based-on-genetic-information-alone/	Metaculus	false	none	39
374	One Million Martian Residents by 2075?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/	Metaculus	true	2%	295
375	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3520/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2020-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/	Metaculus	false	none	121
376	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3521/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/	Metaculus	false	none	120
377	When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3522/when-will-the-doomsday-clock-reach-midnight/	Metaculus	false	none	94
378	Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3528/will-a-geoengineering-act-of-congress-become-us-federal-law-by-the-end-of-2024/	Metaculus	true	10%	38
379	Will the star Betelgeuse be observed to go supernova before 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/	Metaculus	true	1%	81
380	How many geoengineering international treaties will be listed on the World Legal Information Institute's database at the end of 2024?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3535/how-many-geoengineering-international-treaties-will-be-listed-on-the-world-legal-information-institutes-database-at-the-end-of-2024/	Metaculus	false	none	77
381	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/	Metaculus	false	none	120
382	What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3581/what-will-the-global-weighted-average-levelized-cost-of-energy-of-onshore-wind-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/	Metaculus	false	none	105
383	What will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide, over the 2020 to 2022 period?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3582/what-will-the-average-growth-rate-be-of-total-renewable-energy-produced-worldwide-over-the-2020-to-2022-period/	Metaculus	false	none	130
384	Will Stacey Abrams be elected president in or before the 2040 election?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3588/will-stacey-abrams-be-elected-president-in-or-before-the-2040-election/	Metaculus	true	2%	118
385	When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/	Metaculus	false	none	52
386	When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3592/ev-battery-storage-costs/	Metaculus	false	none	70
387	Will renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3593/will-renewable-energy-contribute-2500-or-less-to-global-electricity-production-in-the-calendar-year-2030/	Metaculus	true	11%	99
388	Will Iowa host another "first in the nation" Democratic caucus by the end of 2028?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3600/will-iowa-host-another-first-in-the-nation-democratic-caucus-by-the-end-of-2028/	Metaculus	true	65%	95
389	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/	Metaculus	true	15%	126
390	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3606/will-a-wealth-tax-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/	Metaculus	true	10%	129
391	Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/	Metaculus	true	90%	71
392	Will a new amendment to the US Constitution be ratified by 2050?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3616/will-a-new-amendment-to-the-us-constitution-be-ratified-by-2050/	Metaculus	true	60%	233
393	Will the US supreme court change size by 2050?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3617/will-the-us-supreme-court-change-size-by-2050/	Metaculus	true	46%	195
394	When will the United States admit a new state?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3618/when-will-the-united-states-admit-a-new-state/	Metaculus	false	none	154
395	How many nations will there be in the United Nations by 2050?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3619/how-many-nations-will-there-be-in-the-united-nations-by-2050/	Metaculus	false	none	58
396	Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3620/will-china-recognize-the-sovereignty-of-taiwan-by-2050/	Metaculus	true	15%	220
397	Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3621/will-a-third-party-win-a-senate-election-in-the-united-states-by-2050/	Metaculus	true	55.00000000000001%	84
398	What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3622/what-will-the-harvard-admit-rate-be-for-the-undergraduate-class-of-2029/	Metaculus	false	none	215
399	When will the English Wikipedia have 10 million articles?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3623/when-will-the-english-wikipedia-have-10-million-articles/	Metaculus	false	none	87
400	What will the world real GDP growth rate be in 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3626/what-will-the-world-real-gdp-growth-rate-be-in-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	111
401	Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3629/will-the-national-popular-vote-interstate-compact-reach-majority-in-the-electoral-college-before-2030/	Metaculus	true	26%	148
402	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/	Metaculus	true	87%	259
403	Longbets series: By 2030, will commercial passengers routinely fly in pilotless planes?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3645/longbets-series-by-2030-will-commercial-passengers-routinely-fly-in-pilotless-planes/	Metaculus	true	10%	74
404	Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3647/longbets-series-by-2025-will-the-scientific-evidence-of-a-large-bi-pedal-great-ape-be-sufficient-to-convince-at-least-50-of-primatologists-that-a-yetibigfoot-like-creature-exists/	Metaculus	true	1%	89
405	Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/	Metaculus	true	35%	295
406	How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3652/how-much-wind-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/	Metaculus	false	none	168
407	How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/	Metaculus	false	none	147
408	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/	Metaculus	true	86%	230
409	If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/	Metaculus	true	61%	64
410	When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3658/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-us-passenger-car-fleet/	Metaculus	false	none	112
411	Are we on path for IPCC's 'middle-of-the-road' scenario for the deployment of renewables?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3665/are-we-on-path-for-ipccs-middle-of-the-road-scenario-for-the-deployment-of-renewables/	Metaculus	true	71%	45
412	Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3671/will-it-turn-out-that-bloomberg-manipulated-2020-election-prediction-markets/	Metaculus	true	1%	159
413	How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally, in the calendar year 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3678/how-much-greenhouse-gas-will-be-emitted-globally-in-the-calendar-year-2030-in-gigatonnes-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-equivalent/	Metaculus	false	none	105
414	Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei/	Metaculus	true	13%	2352
415	Before the end of 2024 will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a laboratory?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3682/before-the-end-of-2024-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-covid-19-more-likely-than-not-originated-from-a-laboratory/	Metaculus	true	15%	414
416	Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3683/will-an-oracle-superintelligence-be-developed-before-a-general-superintelligence/	Metaculus	true	40%	68
417	When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3684/when-will-a-quantum-computer-running-shors-algorithm-or-a-similar-one-be-used-to-factor-one-of-the-rsa-numbers-for-the-first-time/	Metaculus	false	none	89
418	When will an AI achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/	Metaculus	false	none	72
419	What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3701/what-will-the-maximum-increase-in-global-annual-mean-surface-air-temperature-be-relative-to-the-1951-1980-base-period-in-the-2020-to-2023-period/	Metaculus	false	none	112
420	What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3708/what-will-the-lower-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/	Metaculus	false	none	66
421	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/	Metaculus	true	55.00000000000001%	368
422	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of Mainland China on April the 27th?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3718/how-many-covid-2019-cases-will-be-confirmed-in-the-location-with-the-most-cases-outside-of-mainland-china-on-april-the-27th/	Metaculus	false	none	15
423	When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-private-fusion-company-first-report-a-yearly-profit/	Metaculus	false	none	29
424	When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/	Metaculus	false	none	43
425	When will space mining be profitable?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3728/when-will-space-mining-be-profitable/	Metaculus	false	none	76
426	When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/	Metaculus	false	none	155
427	How many communist states will there be in 2050?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3730/how-many-communist-states-will-there-be-in-2050/	Metaculus	false	none	137
428	Will bitcoins thought to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto be spent by 2075-04-05?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3733/will-bitcoins-thought-to-belong-to-satoshi-nakamoto-be-spent-by-2075-04-05/	Metaculus	true	32%	101
429	Will it turn out that the Keto diet is both safe and has health benefits for some identified and significant population of people?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3739/will-it-turn-out-that-the-keto-diet-is-both-safe-and-has-health-benefits-for-some-identified-and-significant-population-of-people/	Metaculus	true	52%	101
430	Will the global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be in line with the pathway to limit warming to 2.0°C by mid-century, over the 2024 to 2027 period?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3742/will-the-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-be-in-line-with-the-pathway-to-limit-warming-to-20c-by-mid-century-over-the-2024-to-2027-period/	Metaculus	true	34%	54
431	When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3743/when-will-the-global-annual-mean-surface-air-temperature-moving-average-first-exceed-13c-relative-to-the-1951-1980-base-period/	Metaculus	false	none	55
432	Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3749/will-the-key-to-any-pre-2020-wikileaks-insurance-file-be-publicly-available-by-2030/	Metaculus	true	27%	70
433	When will the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time record high close after the Coronavirus Crash of February 2020?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3764/when-will-the-dow-jones-industrial-average-set-a-new-all-time-record-high-close-after-the-coronavirus-crash-of-february-2020/	Metaculus	false	none	766
434	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3768/how-many-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-1st-quarter-of-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	598
435	When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/	Metaculus	false	none	138
436	Will any sovereign government issue a formal apology for their treatment of farm animals by 2200?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3772/will-any-sovereign-government-issue-a-formal-apology-for-their-treatment-of-farm-animals-by-2200/	Metaculus	true	85%	100
437	Will reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3777/will-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-be-a-mainstream-moral-issue-in-america-before-2200/	Metaculus	true	61%	71
438	Will a democratic nation whose economy transitions from capitalist to market socialist sustain adequate economic growth?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3778/will-a-democratic-nation-whose-economy-transitions-from-capitalist-to-market-socialist-sustain-adequate-economic-growth/	Metaculus	true	45%	47
439	What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3786/what-will-be-the-lowest-closing-value-for-the-dow-jones-industrial-average-before-it-reaches-a-new-all-time-record-high-close/	Metaculus	false	none	567
440	Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/	Metaculus	true	35%	83
441	If Bernie Sanders becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in the US in 2024?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3805/if-bernie-sanders-becomes-president-what-will-be-the-yearly-co2-emissions-per-capita-in-the-us-in-2024/	Metaculus	false	none	55
442	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in the US in 2024?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3806/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-be-the-yearly-co2-emissions-per-capita-in-the-us-in-2024/	Metaculus	false	none	150
443	Will Valve release a game before 2030 with 3 in the Title?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3812/will-valve-release-a-game-before-2030-with-3-in-the-title/	Metaculus	true	65%	117
444	When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/	Metaculus	false	none	222
445	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/	Metaculus	true	40%	697
446	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/	Metaculus	true	6%	282
447	When will the next Qatari general election be held?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3830/when-will-the-next-qatari-general-election-be-held/	Metaculus	false	none	50
448	What will North Korea's merchandise trade as a % of GDP be in 2045 per the most recent World Bank data?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3833/what-will-north-koreas-merchandise-trade-as-a--of-gdp-be-in-2045-per-the-most-recent-world-bank-data/	Metaculus	false	none	50
449	Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/	Metaculus	true	12%	126
450	When will Nintendo release a console capable of 4K output?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3840/when-will-nintendo-release-a-console-capable-of-4k-output/	Metaculus	false	none	64
451	Will a reliable poll of physicists reveal that a majority of those polled accept the many-worlds interpretation by 2050?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3842/will-a-reliable-poll-of-physicists-reveal-that-a-majority-of-those-polled-accept-the-many-worlds-interpretation-by-2050/	Metaculus	true	30%	104
452	Will the USD still reign supreme by 2050?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3858/will-the-usd-still-reign-supreme-by-2050/	Metaculus	true	39%	127
453	Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3864/out-of-the-25-largest-us-companies-by-revenue-how-many-will-file-for-bankruptcy-over-the-next-four-years/	Metaculus	false	none	197
454	When will a currently unknown social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3866/when-will-a-currently-unknown-social-media-app-reach-one-billion-downloads-worldwide/	Metaculus	false	none	73
455	If there is a WW3, what longitude will it start in?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3867/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-longitude-will-it-start-in/	Metaculus	false	none	85
456	If there is a WW3, what latitude will it start in?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3868/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-latitude-will-it-start-in/	Metaculus	false	none	52
457	Will there turn out to be widespread fossils of algae and lichens on Mars?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3870/will-there-turn-out-to-be-widespread-fossils-of-algae-and-lichens-on-mars/	Metaculus	true	2%	169
458	When will the United Kingdom apply to rejoin the EU?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3877/when-will-the-united-kingdom-apply-to-rejoin-the-eu/	Metaculus	false	none	83
459	When will humanity use more than one millionth of the sun's energy output?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3882/when-will-humanity-use-more-than-one-millionth-of-the-suns-energy-output/	Metaculus	false	none	95
460	How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3883/how-many-people-will-be-born-in-the-united-states-in-the-year-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	255
461	When will China legalise same-sex marriage?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3887/when-will-china-legalise-same-sex-marriage/	Metaculus	false	none	61
462	When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3913/when-will-a-vaccine-for-hiv-be-administered-to-10-million-people/	Metaculus	false	none	45
463	What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/	Metaculus	false	none	501
464	What will the peak population of Antarctica be by 2075?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3999/what-will-the-peak-population-of-antarctica-be-by-2075/	Metaculus	false	none	93
465	Will the next US recession turn into a depression?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4013/will-the-next-us-recession-turn-into-a-depression/	Metaculus	true	7.000000000000001%	336
466	When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4017/when-will-the-us-unemployment-rate-fall-to-4-or-lower-for-the-first-time-since-the-covid-19-crisis-of-2020/	Metaculus	false	none	178
467	What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	364
468	What will inflation be in the US in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	137
469	By 2030, will C. elegans be uploaded to the satisfaction of top computational neuroscientists?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4034/by-2030-will-c-elegans-be-uploaded-to-the-satisfaction-of-top-computational-neuroscientists/	Metaculus	true	36%	131
470	Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/	Metaculus	true	2%	112
471	Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4037/will-a-sitting-us-president-not-seek-reelection-before-the-2080-election/	Metaculus	true	85%	189
472	When will OpenAI unveil their secret AI project?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4043/when-will-openai-unveil-their-secret-ai-project/	Metaculus	false	none	285
473	How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4048/how-many-cents-will-it-cost-a-typical-consumer-in-the-united-states-to-store-10-gb-of-data-on-january-1st-2025/	Metaculus	false	none	111
474	What will the maximum world real GDP growth in percentage points be for a single year in the 21st century?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4050/what-will-the-maximum-world-real-gdp-growth-in-percentage-points-be-for-a-single-year-in-the-21st-century/	Metaculus	false	none	64
475	Will Alcor offer the use of a fixative during cryopreservation procedures before 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4051/will-alcor-offer-the-use-of-a-fixative-during-cryopreservation-procedures-before-2030/	Metaculus	true	52%	52
476	If cryonics is at some point offered for free, what percentage of Americans will be signed up within 10 years?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4052/if-cryonics-is-at-some-point-offered-for-free-what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-signed-up-within-10-years/	Metaculus	false	none	56
477	What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4053/what-will-be-the-alexa-traffic-rank-for-metaculuscom-on-january-1st-2022/	Metaculus	false	none	215
478	Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4055/will-the-first-agi-be-based-on-deep-learning/	Metaculus	true	64%	80
479	What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4057/what-will-be-the-sentiment-of-metaculus-users-with-regard-to-self-resolving-questions-at-the-end-of-2022/	Metaculus	false	none	78
480	Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4061/will-any-major-ai-company-commit-to-an-ai-windfall-clause-by-2025/	Metaculus	true	33%	55
481	When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4066/10m-are-administered-an-efficacious-vaccine/	Metaculus	false	none	1513
482	What will be the relative severity of the next US depression, compared to the Great Depression?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4083/what-will-be-the-relative-severity-of-the-next-us-depression-compared-to-the-great-depression/	Metaculus	false	none	138
483	How many years will caloric restriction be demonstrated to add to one's natural lifespan?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4094/how-many-years-will-caloric-restriction-be-demonstrated-to-add-to-ones-natural-lifespan/	Metaculus	false	none	73
484	If Donald Trump is reelected president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in the US in 2024?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4101/if-donald-trump-is-reelected-president-what-will-be-the-yearly-co2-emissions-per-capita-in-the-us-in-2024/	Metaculus	false	none	86
485	Assuming some humans are alive, what will be the birthdate of the oldest living human on January 1st 2200?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4110/assuming-some-humans-are-alive-what-will-be-the-birthdate-of-the-oldest-living-human-on-january-1st-2200/	Metaculus	false	none	69
486	Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4118/will-there-be-a-positive-transition-to-a-world-with-radically-smarter-than-human-artificial-intelligence/	Metaculus	true	65%	109
487	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/	Metaculus	true	2%	141
488	After an AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligence?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/	Metaculus	false	none	136
489	What will be the first year during which most deaths are from non-disease related causes and fewer than 1% of humans die?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4125/what-will-be-the-first-year-during-which-most-deaths-are-from-non-disease-related-causes-and-fewer-than-1-of-humans-die/	Metaculus	false	none	34
490	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/	Metaculus	true	20%	461
491	What will be the total damage incurred by climate change in the 21st century as measured by its impact on GDP?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4159/climate-change-damage-in-the-21st-century/	Metaculus	false	none	24
492	When will a human chess player reach a FIDE rating of 2900?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4209/when-will-a-human-chess-player-reach-a-fide-rating-of-2900/	Metaculus	false	none	60
493	What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4215/what-will-be-the-real-world-gdp-on-the-year-agi-is-deployed-in-trillions-of-dollars/	Metaculus	false	none	72
494	Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4219/will-large-scale-solar-radiation-management-be-used-to-mitigate-the-effects-of-climate-change-in-the-21st-century/	Metaculus	true	40%	30
495	Will Stephen Wolfram or his co-authors, Jonathan Gorard and Max Piskunov, receive the Nobel prize in physics before the end of 2035?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4224/will-stephen-wolfram-or-his-co-authors-jonathan-gorard-and-max-piskunov-receive-the-nobel-prize-in-physics-before-the-end-of-2035/	Metaculus	true	1%	166
496	When will the seasonally adjusted atmospheric concentration of C02 be lower than the same time in the previous year?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4225/when-will-the-seasonally-adjusted-atmospheric-concentration-of-c02-be-lower-than-the-same-time-in-the-previous-year/	Metaculus	false	none	32
497	Will the number of foreign nationals in Mainland China fall between 2010 and 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4229/will-the-number-of-foreign-nationals-in-mainland-china-fall-between-2010-and-2030/	Metaculus	true	26%	58
498	How many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use by 2070?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4230/how-many-countries-will-at-least-in-some-form-decriminalize-possession-of-all-schedule-i-drugs-for-personal-use-by-2070/	Metaculus	false	none	33
499	What will be the mean expected lifespan gain from one year of the TRIIM-X trial, as measured by the epigenetic clock GrimAge?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4231/what-will-be-the-mean-expected-lifespan-gain-from-one-year-of-the-triim-x-trial-as-measured-by-the-epigenetic-clock-grimage/	Metaculus	false	none	29
500	When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/	Metaculus	false	none	70
501	When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/	Metaculus	false	none	96
502	When will there be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4249/when-will-there-be-a-vegan-cheese-indistinguishable-from-non-vegan-cheese-available-for-purchase-by-regular-consumers/	Metaculus	false	none	63
503	How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4264/how-many-years-after-the-silver-turing-test-is-passed-will-an-agi-system-be-developed/	Metaculus	false	none	60
504	How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4265/how-much-exercise-can-you-do-before-it-starts-to-take-more-time-than-it-adds-life/	Metaculus	false	none	109
505	Will NAD+ boosters be shown in a systematic review to increase human lifespan by >=5% by 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4290/will-nad-boosters-be-shown-in-a-systematic-review-to-increase-human-lifespan-by-5-by-2030/	Metaculus	true	24%	36
506	Which Artemis Moon Mission landing system will first land a person on the moon?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4306/which-artemis-moon-mission-landing-system-will-first-land-a-person-on-the-moon/	Metaculus	false	none	55
507	Longbets series: By 2040 will the percentage of college-aged U.S. citizens who are attending postsecondary educational institutions in the United States drop at least 50% from the level in 2011?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4319/longbets-series-by-2040-will-the-percentage-of-college-aged-us-citizens-who-are-attending-postsecondary-educational-institutions-in-the-united-states-drop-at-least-50-from-the-level-in-2011/	Metaculus	true	25%	22
508	How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2031?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4332/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2031/	Metaculus	false	none	78
509	What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4333/what-will-be-the-democracy-index-of-the-united-states-in-2040/	Metaculus	false	none	49
510	If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/	Metaculus	true	70%	136
511	Will the Harvard endowment be larger in 2119 than in 2019?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4349/will-the-harvard-endowment-be-larger-in-2119-than-in-2019/	Metaculus	true	50%	28
512	When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the Japanese passenger car fleet?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4360/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-japanese-passenger-car-fleet/	Metaculus	false	none	32
513	When will the US national debt reach $50 trillion?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4364/when-will-the-us-national-debt-reach-50-trillion/	Metaculus	false	none	103
514	What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4390/what-will-be-the-lowest-cost-per-kilogram-in-us-dollars-to-deliver-a-payload-to-leo-or-beyond-before-2025/	Metaculus	false	none	116
515	Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4409/will-one-of-the-first-agi-claim-to-be-conscious/	Metaculus	true	75%	91
516	What is the greatest number of people who, for non-medical purposes, use a newly discovered drug at any year between 2021 and 2070?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4418/what-is-the-greatest-number-of-people-who-for-non-medical-purposes-use-a-newly-discovered-drug-at-any-year-between-2021-and-2070/	Metaculus	false	none	70
517	By 1 January 2067, medical interventions for healthy adults will have been shown to extend average lifespan by at least 25 years	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4429/by-1-january-2067-medical-interventions-for-healthy-adults-will-have-been-shown-to-extend-average-lifespan-by-at-least-25-years/	Metaculus	true	25%	69
518	If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4433/if-biden-becomes-president-will-there-be-an-expansion-of-the-keystone-pipeline-system-of-at-least-100-km-in-length-by-the-end-of-2024/	Metaculus	true	5%	97
519	When will North Korea become a democracy?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4439/when-will-north-korea-become-a-democracy/	Metaculus	false	none	64
520	What rank will the United States be on the inequality adjusted human development index in 2035?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4440/what-rank-will-the-united-states-be-on-the-inequality-adjusted-human-development-index-in-2035/	Metaculus	false	none	19
521	When will be the next "Great Power" war?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/	Metaculus	false	none	110
522	What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4442/what-will-be-the-gross-receipts-of-the-sens-research-foundation-in-the-2021-tax-year-as-reported-on-their-form-990/	Metaculus	false	none	81
523	When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/	Metaculus	false	none	121
524	What will be the highest value of the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) before 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4444/what-will-be-the-highest-value-of-the-us-private-sector-job-quality-index-jqi-1-before-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	41
525	When will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4449/when-will-global-ipv4-traffic-account-for-less-than-1-of-total-internet-traffic/	Metaculus	false	none	51
526	When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/	Metaculus	false	none	68
527	Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4456/will-the-united-states-test-a-nuclear-weapon-before-2023/	Metaculus	true	5%	109
528	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/	Metaculus	false	none	158
529	When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/	Metaculus	false	none	61
530	What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4507/what-percentage-of-top-colleges-in-the-united-states-will-not-require-the-sat-or-act-for-freshman-admittance-by-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	38
531	How long would humanity take to rebound from a global catastrophe?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/how-long-would-humanity-take-to-rebound-from-a-global-catastrophe/	Metaculus	false	none	132
532	How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4518/how-many-billions-of-parameters-will-the-largest-machine-learning-model-trained-before-2030-have/	Metaculus	false	none	31
533	When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operations?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4519/when-will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-begin-operations/	Metaculus	false	none	58
534	Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4524/will-the-us-conduct-a-nuclear-test-explosion-before-2030/	Metaculus	true	25%	44
535	Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/	Metaculus	true	25%	106
536	Will there be fewer Kea parrots in 2030 than in 2020?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4544/will-there-be-fewer-kea-parrots-in-2030-than-in-2020/	Metaculus	true	62%	34
537	Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4549/will-george-church-receive-a-nobel-prize-in-any-category-before-the-end-of-2035/	Metaculus	true	10%	29
538	When will a technology replace screens?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4577/when-will-a-technology-replace-screens/	Metaculus	false	none	93
539	What % of money held in all US DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4584/what--of-money-held-in-all-us-dafs-will-be-expropriated-by-2100/	Metaculus	false	none	23
540	What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4585/what-annual-real-return-will-the-global-stock-market-realize-2022-2031/	Metaculus	false	none	98
541	If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended by 2024?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4586/if-biden-becomes-president-will-the-sentencing-disparity-between-crack-and-powder-cocaine-be-ended-by-2024/	Metaculus	true	60%	35
542	When will Croatia adopt the euro?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4587/when-will-croatia-adopt-the-euro/	Metaculus	false	none	77
543	When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/	Metaculus	false	none	123
544	When will we have a new Pope?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4606/when-will-we-have-a-new-pope/	Metaculus	false	none	88
545	In 2024, what percentage of surveyed Americans will report say that conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are "very strong"?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4608/in-2024-what-percentage-of-surveyed-americans-will-report-say-that-conflicts-between-democrats-and-republicans-are-very-strong/	Metaculus	false	none	33
546	When will directly removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere be economically feasible?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4614/when-will-directly-removing-carbon-dioxide-from-the-atmosphere-be-economically-feasible/	Metaculus	false	none	42
547	What annual real return will the S&P 500 realize 2022-2031?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4615/what-annual-real-return-will-the-sp-500-realize-2022-2031/	Metaculus	false	none	122
548	Will US life expectancy at birth for both sexes fall below 75 years before 2040?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4616/will-us-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-fall-below-75-years-before-2040/	Metaculus	true	13%	97
549	Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4628/will-one-of-givewells-2019-top-charities-be-estimated-as-the-most-cost-effective-charity-in-2031/	Metaculus	true	30%	40
550	Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4630/will-metaculus-inc-host-a-prediction-market-prior-to-2024/	Metaculus	true	30%	50
551	Will oil consumption over the 2020-2025 period be lower than in 2019?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4633/oil-consumption-rebounds-no-sooner-than-2026/	Metaculus	true	30%	145
552	If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644/if-labour-wins-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/	Metaculus	false	none	38
553	If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645/if-conservatives-win-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/	Metaculus	false	none	40
554	What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4646/what-will-total-enrollment-for-recent-us-high-school-graduates-be-in-us-colleges-in-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	100
555	When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4665/when-will-ninja-first-lose-the-top-spot-as-the-most-followed-account-on-twitch/	Metaculus	false	none	149
556	Will the XENON1T experiment soon report a detection of dark matter or other new physics?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4670/will-the-xenon1t-experiment-soon-report-a-detection-of-dark-matter-or-other-new-physics/	Metaculus	true	30%	40
557	When will the Chinese state have collected 1 billion unique genomes from their population?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4676/when-will-the-chinese-state-have-collected-1-billion-unique-genomes-from-their-population/	Metaculus	false	none	23
558	In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4677/in-2031-will-at-least-90-of-open-philanthropy-project-grant-money-be-directed-using-effective-altruist-principles/	Metaculus	true	70%	25
559	Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4678/will-at-least-one-us-state-secede-from-the-union-before-31-december-2030/	Metaculus	true	3%	90
560	When will the population size of India surpass the population size of China?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4680/when-will-the-population-size-of-india-surpass-the-population-size-of-china/	Metaculus	false	none	186
561	What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Donald Trump is reelected president?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4688/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-donald-trump-is-reelected-president/	Metaculus	false	none	88
562	When will The Boring Company tunnel faster than a snail?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4692/when-will-the-boring-company-tunnel-faster-than-a-snail/	Metaculus	false	none	60
563	What will Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of US$?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4694/what-will-gross-world-product-be-in-2047-in-trillions-of-us/	Metaculus	false	none	110
564	What will be the total expenditures of the United Nations System in 2050?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4696/what-will-be-the-total-expenditures-of-the-united-nations-system-in-2050/	Metaculus	false	none	12
565	What percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric by 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4701/what-percentage-of-vehicles-on-us-roads-will-be-fully-electric-by-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	47
566	When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4719/when-will-us-domestic-passenger-air-travel-return-to-80-of-pre-covid-19-volumes/	Metaculus	false	none	70
567	When will US auto manufacturing recover to 80% of pre-COVID-19 production levels?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4721/when-will-us-auto-manufacturing-recover-to-80-of-pre-covid-19-production-levels/	Metaculus	false	none	52
568	Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4736/will-the-nyt-end-up-publishing-any-articles-mentioning-ssc-or-sa-in-the-next-year/	Metaculus	true	59%	520
569	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4737/when-will-the-covid-19-epidemic-subside-in-russia/	Metaculus	false	none	224
570	Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/	Metaculus	true	44%	281
571	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4742/will-mount-rushmore-be-intentionally-destroyed-or-modified-before-2025/	Metaculus	true	5%	134
572	Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/	Metaculus	true	60%	20
573	Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4763/will-there-be-a-g4-ea-h1n1-flu-virus-pandemic-before-2025/	Metaculus	true	2%	60
574	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/	Metaculus	true	1%	1167
575	Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4774/will-scott-morrison-be-prime-minister-of-australia-on-1-july-2021/	Metaculus	true	92%	107
576	Will Richard Spencer receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4775/will-richard-spencer-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/	Metaculus	true	1%	177
577	Will Charles Murray receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4776/will-charles-murray-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/	Metaculus	true	1%	136
578	Will more than two nuclear weapons in total have been detonated as an act of war by 2050?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/will-more-than-two-nuclear-weapons-in-total-have-been-detonated-as-an-act-of-war-by-2050/	Metaculus	true	20%	84
579	While cryopreservation using fixatives is available, how many times more likely will someone be to be revived by 2200 if they are cryopreserved using fixatives than without?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4780/while-cryopreservation-using-fixatives-is-available-how-many-times-more-likely-will-someone-be-to-be-revived-by-2200-if-they-are-cryopreserved-using-fixatives-than-without/	Metaculus	false	none	23
580	If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4783/if-the-nyt-publishes-an-article-mentioning-slate-star-codex-or-scott-alexander-by-july-2021-will-it-include-his-full-name/	Metaculus	true	86%	368
581	Will James Lindsay receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4784/will-james-lindsay-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/	Metaculus	true	1%	123
582	What percentage of people cryopreserved between 2020 and 2050 will be revived by 2200?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4785/what-percentage-of-people-cryopreserved-between-2020-and-2050-will-be-revived-by-2200/	Metaculus	false	none	35
583	Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/	Metaculus	true	70%	73
584	When will a universal flu vaccine be available?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4791/when-will-a-universal-flu-vaccine-be-available/	Metaculus	false	none	63
585	What will the mass of the next fundamental particle to be discovered be, in eV?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4794/what-will-the-mass-of-the-next-fundamental-particle-to-be-discovered-be-in-ev/	Metaculus	false	none	36
586	How many states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4796/states-with-legal-psilocybin-by-2045/	Metaculus	false	none	27
587	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4798/what-will-teslas-market-capitalization-be-on-1-january-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	58
588	When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4799/when-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-hold-the-office-of-president-of-russia/	Metaculus	false	none	100
589	How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/	Metaculus	false	none	102
590	As of July 1st, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4815/as-of-july-1st-2022-when-will-top-forecasters-expect-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-to-be-developed-and-demonstrated/	Metaculus	false	none	110
591	Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4816/will-derek-chauvin-be-acquitted-of-all-murder-charges/	Metaculus	true	71%	476
592	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4821/will-ea-global-london-2021-be-cancelled-rescheduled-or-moved-online/	Metaculus	true	74%	121
593	Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4826/will-any-wirecard-executive-receive-a-custodial-sentence-for-their-involvement-in-the-wirecard-collapse/	Metaculus	true	65%	33
594	What will the global fertility rate be in 2050?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/	Metaculus	false	none	25
595	When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/	Metaculus	false	none	213
596	When will the VIX index fall below 20?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4833/when-will-the-vix-index-fall-below-20/	Metaculus	false	none	216
597	When will the VIX index climb above 50?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4834/when-will-the-vix-index-climb-above-50/	Metaculus	false	none	83
598	Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4836/will-chinas-tianwen-1-rover-successfully-land-on-mars/	Metaculus	true	70%	95
599	When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4841/when-will-blue-origin-send-a-paying-customer-to-space/	Metaculus	false	none	77
600	When will virtual reality headset sales exceed 10 million units per year?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4845/when-will-virtual-reality-headset-sales-exceed-10-million-units-per-year/	Metaculus	false	none	35
601	When will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4846/when-will-evidence-of-successful-synthesis-of-the-element-ununennium-be-published/	Metaculus	false	none	31
602	In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4848/in-the-2024-us-presidential-election-how-many-states-will-use-plurality-voting-methods-to-choose-their-electors/	Metaculus	false	none	41
603	Will a Science Fiction work originally written and published in Spanish by 2029 win any of the great international awards that recognize great authors in this genre?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4849/will-a-science-fiction-work-originally-written-and-published-in-spanish-by-2029-win-any-of-the-great-international-awards-that-recognize-great-authors-in-this-genre/	Metaculus	true	27%	54
604	When (if ever) will a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4850/when-if-ever-will-a-manhattanapollo-project-toward-agi-be-launched/	Metaculus	false	none	116
605	What will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day poverty be in 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4851/what-will-the-percentage-of-the-world-population-in-190-a-day-poverty-be-in-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	74
606	How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/	Metaculus	false	none	326
607	What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Climeworks in 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	55
608	What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Project Vesta in 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	45
609	What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	59
610	What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by Charm Industrial in 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	17
611	Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/	Metaculus	true	33%	36
612	Will Project Vesta still exist in 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4863/will-project-vesta-still-exist-in-2030/	Metaculus	true	22%	52
613	Will CarbonCure still exist in 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4864/will-carboncure-still-exist-in-2030/	Metaculus	true	33%	33
614	Will Charm Industrial still exist in 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4865/will-charm-industrial-still-exist-in-2030/	Metaculus	true	25%	25
615	Will photonic tensor cores be ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4872/will-photonic-tensor-cores-be-ubiquitous-in-machine-learning-by-2030/	Metaculus	true	25%	53
616	Will OpenAI reach its profit cap for the first round of investors by 2035?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4873/will-openai-reach-its-profit-cap-for-the-first-round-of-investors-by-2035/	Metaculus	true	16%	53
617	Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4876/will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-trained-to-do-external-information-retrieval-exist-before-2023/	Metaculus	true	51%	47
618	When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/	Metaculus	false	none	100
619	When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4881/when-will-rthemotte-be-banned-from-reddit/	Metaculus	false	none	88
620	Will any of these Reddit alternatives be more popular than Reddit by 2026?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4882/will-any-of-these-reddit-alternatives-be-more-popular-than-reddit-by-2026/	Metaculus	true	6%	53
621	Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4883/will-metaculus-anticipate-the-biggest-unforeseen-trend-of-the-2020s/	Metaculus	true	40%	31
622	Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4892/will-transformer-derived-architectures-still-be-state-of-the-art-for-language-modeling-in-2025/	Metaculus	true	66%	32
623	Longbets series: Will slaughterhouses be banned in the United Kingdom by 2050.	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4894/longbets-series-will-slaughterhouses-be-banned-in-the-united-kingdom-by-2050/	Metaculus	true	20%	34
624	How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4895/how-many-laws-will-be-enacted-during-the-117th-united-states-congress/	Metaculus	false	none	67
625	What will China's human development index (HDI) score be in 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4905/what-will-chinas-human-development-index-hdi-score-be-in-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	41
626	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/	Metaculus	true	5%	557
627	What will the US police-to-prison spending ratio be in 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4907/what-will-the-us-police-to-prison-spending-ratio-be-in-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	52
628	When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4911/when-will-an-individual-spacex-falcon-9-core-stage-launch-and-return-to-earth-for-the-tenth-time/	Metaculus	false	none	132
629	How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4912/how-many-of-the-priority-paths-identified-by-80000hours-will-still-be-priority-paths-in-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	22
630	Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4918/alexander-lukashenko-to-remain-president-of-belarus-on-january-31st-2021/	Metaculus	true	99%	1076
631	Who will win the 'worm wars'?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4919/who-will-win-the-worm-wars/	Metaculus	true	73%	57
632	How many charities will Charity Entrepreneurship help launch in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4920/how-many-charities-will-charity-entrepreneurship-help-launch-in-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	25
633	When will Charity Entrepreneurship help create a new GiveWell top charity?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4921/when-will-charity-entrepreneurship-help-create-a-new-givewell-top-charity/	Metaculus	false	none	68
634	Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4922/will-there-be-active-warfare-between-the-united-states-and-china-by-the-end-of-2026/	Metaculus	true	8%	137
635	Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4923/will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-by-ai/	Metaculus	true	14.000000000000002%	135
636	Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints allow same-sex marriage by 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4924/will-the-church-of-jesus-christ-of-latter-day-saints-allow-same-sex-marriage-by-2030/	Metaculus	true	34%	43
637	What will SpaceX be worth in 2030? [125B-100T range]	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4927/what-will-spacex-be-worth-in-2030-125b-100t-range/	Metaculus	false	none	70
638	When will the Woke index in US elite media top?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4931/when-will-the-woke-index-in-us-elite-media-top/	Metaculus	false	none	21
639	When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/	Metaculus	false	none	79
640	Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4934/will-freeton-cryptocurrency-project-be-successful/	Metaculus	true	8%	37
641	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4946/will-antifa-officially-be-labeled-a-terrorist-group-in-the-us-before-2022/	Metaculus	true	5%	225
642	[Metaculus] When will the feature to share private questions go live?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4947/metaculus-when-will-the-feature-to-share-private-questions-go-live/	Metaculus	false	none	51
643	What will be the best marathon time completed before 2035, in seconds, according to Guinness World Records?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4949/what-will-be-the-best-marathon-time-completed-before-2035-in-seconds-according-to-guinness-world-records/	Metaculus	false	none	34
644	When will traviswfisher be unseated on the Metaculus leaderboard?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4950/when-will-traviswfisher-be-unseated-on-the-metaculus-leaderboard/	Metaculus	false	none	154
645	How many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4951/how-many-billions-of-tons-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-will-the-united-states-emit-in-2035/	Metaculus	false	none	45
646	Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4952/will-lebanon-come-under-french-rule-again-before-2025/	Metaculus	true	1%	110
647	When will the first baby be born away from Earth?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4954/when-will-the-first-baby-be-born-away-from-earth/	Metaculus	false	none	57
648	When will One Piece end?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4963/when-will-one-piece-end/	Metaculus	false	none	29
649	When will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to sell and implant a brain-machine interface device into general consumers?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/	Metaculus	false	none	103
650	What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4967/what-will-be-the-real-median-household-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	51
651	What will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	62
652	Will someone report to have received a hemispherectomy for the purpose of life extension before 2100?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4969/will-someone-report-to-have-received-a-hemispherectomy-for-the-purpose-of-life-extension-before-2100/	Metaculus	true	16%	33
653	What will be the monthly average number of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4970/what-will-be-the-monthly-average-number-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/	Metaculus	false	none	21
654	13 month boxed mean of sunspots around the Solar 25 maximum?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4971/13-month-boxed-mean-of-sunspots-around-the-solar-25-maximum/	Metaculus	false	none	20
655	What will be the minimum magnetic field strength during Solar Cycle 25?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4974/what-will-be-the-minimum-magnetic-field-strength-during-solar-cycle-25/	Metaculus	false	none	54
656	What will be the 3-day mean geomagnetic forecast around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4975/what-will-be-the-3-day-mean-geomagnetic-forecast-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/	Metaculus	false	none	34
657	On what day will Solar Cycle 25’s maximum occur?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4976/on-what-day-will-solar-cycle-25s-maximum-occur/	Metaculus	false	none	37
658	What day will Solar Cycle 25 end?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4978/what-day-will-solar-cycle-25-end/	Metaculus	false	none	37
659	Will a mini-Maunder event occur beginning in Solar Cycle 25 (or 24)?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4979/will-a-mini-maunder-event-occur-beginning-in-solar-cycle-25-or-24/	Metaculus	true	50%	17
660	What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4981/what-will-be-the-5-day-moving-average-of-the-107-cm-radio-flux-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/	Metaculus	false	none	44
661	When will a human with no biological feet run 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4986/when-will-a-human-with-no-biological-feet-run-100-meters-in-less-than-9572-seconds/	Metaculus	false	none	20
662	Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4994/microwave-disruption-of-covid-19-virus-particles/	Metaculus	true	27%	59
663	If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4997/a-stock-price-rise-preceding-agi/	Metaculus	true	62%	19
664	What will Denmark rank in GDP per capita (PPP) in 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5000/what-will-denmark-rank-in-gdp-per-capita-ppp-in-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	28
665	How many DALYs will be caused by outdoor air pollution in 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5025/how-many-dalys-will-be-caused-by-outdoor-air-pollution-in-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	45
666	Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/	Metaculus	true	64%	92
667	Will a high profile criminal investigation take down a "hidden website" on the Tor Network during 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5034/will-a-high-profile-criminal-investigation-take-down-a-hidden-website-on-the-tor-network-during-2021/	Metaculus	true	45%	83
668	When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5035/when-will-spacex-starlink-internet-be-generally-available/	Metaculus	false	none	176
669	Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/	Metaculus	true	5%	49
670	What will be the largest CME during Solar Cycle 25 (in kinetic energy)?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5045/what-will-be-the-largest-cme-during-solar-cycle-25-in-kinetic-energy/	Metaculus	false	none	18
671	Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5048/will-the-uk-rejoin-the-eu-before-2030/	Metaculus	true	3%	95
672	If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/	Metaculus	true	8%	439
673	When will the first Macs with Apple Silicon ship?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5050/when-will-the-first-macs-with-apple-silicon-ship/	Metaculus	false	none	125
674	Will Tucker Carlson be the Republican Presidential nominee in 2024 US presidential election?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5062/will-tucker-carlson-be-the-republican-presidential-nominee-in-2024-us-presidential-election/	Metaculus	true	3%	164
675	Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5105/will-stephen-bannon-be-found-guilty-of-fraud/	Metaculus	true	5%	298
676	What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/	Metaculus	false	none	20
677	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/	Metaculus	true	45%	156
678	If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5120/if-tested-would-the-most-powerful-quesion-answering-ai-system-as-of-2022-06-01-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-5th-graders/	Metaculus	true	27%	37
679	When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/	Metaculus	false	none	141
680	If at least one human challenge trial is run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5127/if-at-least-one-human-challenge-trial-is-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	137
681	If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	156
682	Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5138/will-the-world-series-of-poker-return-to-a-live-in-person-format-in-2021/	Metaculus	true	72%	87
683	Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/	Metaculus	true	16%	399
684	What will be the first year when world real GDP exceeds 130% of any prior year?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/when-will-economic-growth-accelerate/	Metaculus	false	none	43
685	Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/	Metaculus	false	none	68
686	Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5170/will-nord-stream-2-be-completed/	Metaculus	true	70%	34
687	Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5173/transformers-effect-on-ai-research/	Metaculus	true	40%	64
688	If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/	Metaculus	true	40%	212
689	When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5178/doubling-value-company/	Metaculus	true	41%	50
690	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/	Metaculus	true	21%	300
691	When will Bitcoin lose its position as market dominant cryptocurrency?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/	Metaculus	false	none	49
692	When will Amazon deliver some products by drone?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5206/amazon-drone-delivery/	Metaculus	false	none	54
693	When will the first human head transplant occur?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5211/first-human-head-transplant-when/	Metaculus	false	none	28
694	Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5212/legacy-automaker-bankruptcy-before-2030/	Metaculus	true	61%	86
695	Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5217/frie-gr%25C3%25B8nnes-seats-in-the-danish-parliament/	Metaculus	true	24%	30
696	How many parameters (in billions) is needed to achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5218/scaling-to-few-shot-human-level-performance/	Metaculus	false	none	91
697	Will another paper authored by Phil Rushton be retracted before 2022?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5219/rushton-paper-retracted-before-2022/	Metaculus	true	50%	26
698	[Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/	Metaculus	false	none	61
699	Average S&P 500 return in the 2020s?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5240/average-sp-500-return-in-the-2020s/	Metaculus	false	none	74
700	How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5243/arab-league-normalized-relations-with-israel/	Metaculus	false	none	75
701	Will AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5252/aoc-for-president/	Metaculus	true	11%	70
702	Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/	Metaculus	true	40%	232
703	Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/	Metaculus	true	2%	192
704	Will the cover of the 2022 IKEA Catalogue feature a human?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5260/humans-on-the-2022-ikea-catalogue-cover/	Metaculus	true	62%	44
705	What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5261/tax-rate-for-a-million-dollar-capital-gain/	Metaculus	false	none	35
706	Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5265/cdc-to-adopt-haes-by-2035/	Metaculus	true	21%	27
707	When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/	Metaculus	false	none	59
708	How big will be the first crew sent to Mars?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/	Metaculus	false	none	74
709	When will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5287/when-will-america-have-an-emigration-crisis/	Metaculus	false	none	69
710	What is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5300/revival-chance-at-alcor-vs-cryonics-institute/	Metaculus	false	none	28
711	What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5301/a-city-exodus/	Metaculus	false	none	33
712	When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/	Metaculus	false	none	95
713	When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/	Metaculus	false	none	149
714	When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/	Metaculus	false	none	75
715	If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5311/lesswrong-red-button-pressed-on-petrov-day/	Metaculus	true	53%	62
716	Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5313/planet-nine-discovery-by-before-2030/	Metaculus	true	33%	52
717	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5316/vit-d-as-covid-best-practice/	Metaculus	true	25%	77
718	Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/	Metaculus	true	44%	98
719	Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5318/nih-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/	Metaculus	true	43%	68
720	Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5319/dutch-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/	Metaculus	true	37%	36
721	Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/	Metaculus	true	35%	94
722	Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5344/nobel-prize-for-string-theory-before-2050/	Metaculus	true	23%	54
723	Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5350/will-erdogan-be-re-elected-president/	Metaculus	true	68%	71
724	How many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5351/major-wars-in-the-2020s/	Metaculus	false	none	47
725	Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/	Metaculus	true	22%	223
726	What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/	Metaculus	false	none	32
727	Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5380/will-john-mcafee-go-to-prison/	Metaculus	true	59%	37
728	When will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5405/end-of-north-sentinelese-isolation/	Metaculus	false	none	19
729	Will there be a complete 4 year interval by 2050 in which world output doubles?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5406/world-output-doubles-in-4-years-by-2050/	Metaculus	true	30%	53
730	Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5411/margaret-ferrier-resignation-by-april-2021/	Metaculus	true	25%	193
731	Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/conservative-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/	Metaculus	true	50%	33
732	Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/labour-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/	Metaculus	true	43%	38
733	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5415/nk-launches-icbm-again-before-2022/	Metaculus	true	73%	144
734	Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1 trillion before 2027?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5423/stripe-reaches-1tr-valuation-before-2027/	Metaculus	true	8%	56
735	When will Winifred Wagner's correspondence with Adolph Hitler be published?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5425/release-date-of-wagners-letters-with-hitler/	Metaculus	false	none	18
736	Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5427/tax-on-childlessness-in-russia-before-2024/	Metaculus	true	20%	61
737	Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before the end of its term on 31st October 2024?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5431/will-the-eu-announce-by-2024-going-cage-free/	Metaculus	true	36%	74
738	Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5432/month-with-peak-of-covid-19-cases-in-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	184
739	What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/	Metaculus	false	none	135
740	How much will interest in machine translation grow in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5454/growth-in-interest-for-machine-translation/	Metaculus	false	none	35
741	When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5457/date-next-scotus-vacancy-arises/	Metaculus	false	none	116
742	When will be the next S&P 500 correction?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5458/next-sp-500-correction/	Metaculus	false	none	66
743	Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5459/psilocybin-not-schedule-i--2036/	Metaculus	true	72%	31
744	Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/	Metaculus	true	27%	48
745	Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5463/mars-sample-mission-vs-starship/	Metaculus	true	21%	34
746	How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5466/sneerclub-subscribers-by-112022/	Metaculus	false	none	42
747	Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/	Metaculus	false	none	17
748	Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5492/most-popular-img-classification-benchmark-22/	Metaculus	false	none	18
749	When will the GDP of Mars exceed that of Earth?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5506/mars-gdp-exceeds-earths/	Metaculus	false	none	71
750	Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5509/detection-of-phosphine-in-venus-atmosphere/	Metaculus	true	16%	108
751	Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5511/amc-bankruptcy-filing-before-april-2021/	Metaculus	true	5%	243
752	When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/	Metaculus	false	none	52
753	How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	95
754	What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5534/labor-seats-after-next-victorian-election/	Metaculus	false	none	34
755	When will Uber electrify 50% of its fleet?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/	Metaculus	false	none	36
756	Will California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5538/california-zero-emission-sales-by-2035/	Metaculus	true	50%	26
757	How many DC Fast public charging outlets/connections will be available in the United States by 2022?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5539/dc-fast-public-charging-stations-by-2022/	Metaculus	false	none	56
758	Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5540/scotus-impeachment-before-2030/	Metaculus	true	6%	65
759	Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5541/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-at-toyko/	Metaculus	true	73%	51
760	Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5542/japan-host-games-advantage/	Metaculus	true	40%	45
761	What percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5546/success-rate-for-national-carbon-neutrality/	Metaculus	false	none	19
762	Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/	Metaculus	true	79%	60
763	Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5554/5th-ave-apple-store-closure-during-winter/	Metaculus	true	38%	102
764	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/	Metaculus	true	50%	691
765	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5558/squad20-perfomance-2022/	Metaculus	false	none	54
766	When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5559/when-will-lyft-be-80-electrified/	Metaculus	false	none	31
767	What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5560/difference-in-top-ev-model-sales-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	86
768	How many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5572/electric-bus-registrations-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	36
769	When will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets available in California?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5573/us-state-race-in-public-charging-outlets/	Metaculus	false	none	23
770	Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5574/china-to-reach-nev-14-credit-in-2021/	Metaculus	true	75%	32
771	What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/	Metaculus	false	none	38
772	Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5577/germany-to-overtake-us-in-ev-registrations/	Metaculus	true	60%	35
773	How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	92
774	What will the price of neuropreservation be at Alcor in 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5585/neuropreservation-price-at-alcor-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	43
775	Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5587/ai-ny-times-best-seller-before-2030/	Metaculus	true	40%	52
776	What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/	Metaculus	false	none	33
777	Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 election?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/	Metaculus	true	57.99999999999999%	137
778	Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5635/facebook-block-links-to-bitchute-before-2023/	Metaculus	true	35%	30
779	What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	75
780	What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	128
781	What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	80
782	When will the US Federal Minimum Wage be Raised?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5646/next-minimum-wage-raise/	Metaculus	false	none	38
783	When will 1% of humanity's GWP be produced off-Earth?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5648/1-gwp-off-earth/	Metaculus	false	none	33
784	What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5659/max-number-of-us-daily-covid-19-cases/	Metaculus	false	none	155
785	What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5666/donald-trumps-net-worth-in-2024/	Metaculus	false	none	92
786	When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5670/calculating-rsa-public-keys/	Metaculus	false	none	45
787	When will it be possible to buy Quantum Computing via the Cloud?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5671/quantum-computing-via-the-cloud/	Metaculus	false	none	32
788	Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/	Metaculus	true	40%	49
789	What will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5679/avg-daily-supply-motor-gasoline-2025/	Metaculus	false	none	22
790	By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5680/co2-emission-change-from-transport-2020-25/	Metaculus	false	none	17
791	When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/	Metaculus	false	none	35
792	How many new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5682/new-ev-bus-registration-2025/	Metaculus	false	none	29
793	Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5683/who-will-produce-the-most-lithium-by-2030/	Metaculus	true	50%	22
794	Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/	Metaculus	true	33%	63
795	When will Graphcore become a publicly traded company?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5694/when-will-graphcore-ipo/	Metaculus	false	none	12
796	When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/	Metaculus	false	none	42
797	What will be the net percentage of people who believe it's acceptable to buy fur by 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5697/moral-acceptablity-of-buying-fur-by-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	48
798	Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/	Metaculus	true	56.99999999999999%	45
799	Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5716/longbets-oil-consumed-in-us-in-2035-vs-2015/	Metaculus	true	32%	30
800	Will Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5717/will-trump-be-elected-potus-in-2024/	Metaculus	true	3%	244
801	Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5721/1kt-nuke-detonated-on-earth-in-2021/	Metaculus	true	37%	164
802	When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/	Metaculus	false	none	274
803	What will the community median's Brier score (at closing time) be when the Metaculus has 300 predictors per question?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5729/m-community-brier-when-300-predictors-per-q/	Metaculus	false	none	47
804	Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5730/biden-net-approval-5-through-20-july-2021/	Metaculus	true	65%	211
805	What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	125
806	By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5747/will-realdonaldtrump-or-potus-be-suspended/	Metaculus	true	54%	141
807	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/	Metaculus	true	37%	259
808	What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/	Metaculus	false	none	60
809	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/	Metaculus	false	none	152
810	When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/	Metaculus	false	none	57
811	Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5766/yang-to-run-for-nyc-mayor-in-2021/	Metaculus	true	98%	360
812	When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/	Metaculus	false	none	122
813	Will any executives be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5768/prison-for-corporate-crooks/	Metaculus	true	71%	22
814	When will GTA VI be released in the US?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5772/when-will-gta-vi-be-released-in-the-us/	Metaculus	false	none	50
815	When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/	Metaculus	false	none	514
816	What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5780/real-us-house-prices-in-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	23
817	When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/	Metaculus	false	none	21
818	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for January 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	111
819	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	83
820	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in February 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5794/initial-jobless-claims-in-february-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	87
821	What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	60
822	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	56
823	How effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZenca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5800/astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-effectiveness/	Metaculus	false	none	138
824	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for February 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	64
825	How large will Monaco be in 2035?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5802/how-large-will-monaco-be-in-2035/	Metaculus	false	none	46
826	When will the first clone of a prominent historical figure be born?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5804/first-clone-of-a-prominent-historical-figure/	Metaculus	false	none	15
827	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5806/sars-cov-2-vaccine-widely-available-in-the-us/	Metaculus	false	none	298
828	Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5808/signatory-to-ban-on-nukes-to-break-treaty/	Metaculus	true	28.999999999999996%	33
829	How efficacious will the Sputnik V SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be according to the peer reviewed results of the Phase 3 RCT?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5811/sputnik-v-sars-cov-2-vaccine-efficacy/	Metaculus	false	none	47
830	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/	Metaculus	true	50%	68
831	Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5819/aussie-pollie-mathias-cormann-to-lead-oecd/	Metaculus	true	30%	38
832	When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5823/date-first-class-royal-mail-stamps-costs-1/	Metaculus	false	none	18
833	Will the UK government succeed in reducing its commitment to spend 0.7% of GNI on International aid?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5824/uk-to-cut-international-aid/	Metaculus	true	67%	114
834	Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5826/bitcoin-below-10k/	Metaculus	true	21%	381
835	How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5827/dc-charging-stations-in-boulder-co-by-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	50
836	How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5828/dc-charging-stations-in-orlando-fl-in-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	26
837	Will China land the next person on the Moon?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/	Metaculus	true	23%	58
838	When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/	Metaculus	false	none	67
839	How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5839/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	43
840	How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2035?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5840/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2035/	Metaculus	false	none	19
841	On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5848/election-fraud-myth-persists/	Metaculus	true	80%	129
842	When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/	Metaculus	false	none	34
843	When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5858/when-will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected/	Metaculus	false	none	78
844	What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5860/2020-mens-100m-final/	Metaculus	false	none	51
845	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5861/2020-olympic-womens-100m-final/	Metaculus	false	none	48
846	Longbets series: will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5865/longbets-us-productivity-growth-2-2025/	Metaculus	true	40%	16
847	Longbets series: will the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5866/longbets-low-unemployment-but-low-lfpr-2025/	Metaculus	true	51%	27
848	What will US house prices be at the end of 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5867/real-us-house-prices-in-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	42
849	What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on June 14, 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5871/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/	Metaculus	false	none	166
850	What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2021 list?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5872/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-21/	Metaculus	false	none	248
851	Will online poker die by 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5875/online-poker-dead-by-2030/	Metaculus	true	23%	78
852	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5876/-of-us-gdp-spent-on-rd-in-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	25
853	Will the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5882/2024-us-election-considered-fraudulent/	Metaculus	true	50%	67
854	Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5883/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/	Metaculus	true	54%	34
855	Will the Open Courts Act become law?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/	Metaculus	true	56.99999999999999%	39
856	Will Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5885/will-elon-musk-walk-on-the-moon-by-2030/	Metaculus	true	1%	47
857	Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5886/will-the-first-female-potus-be-republican/	Metaculus	true	26%	48
858	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5888/cv-e-prints-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/	Metaculus	false	none	121
859	How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5889/nlp-e-prints-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/	Metaculus	false	none	126
860	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2021 TOP500 list?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5891/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	154
861	How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5892/ai-ethics-and-algo-bias-publications-2022/	Metaculus	false	none	33
862	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5894/ai-safety--other-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/	Metaculus	false	none	178
863	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5896/sota-on-pascal-context-at-2021-06-14/	Metaculus	false	none	142
864	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5897/sota-on-cityscapes-on-2021-06-14/	Metaculus	false	none	144
865	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5898/sota-on-imagenet-on-2021-06-14/	Metaculus	false	none	188
866	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv from 2021 through 2026?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5899/ai-safety--other-2021-through-2026/	Metaculus	false	none	141
867	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5900/few-shot-learning-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/	Metaculus	false	none	137
868	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5901/reinforcement-learning-2020-12-14-2021-06-14/	Metaculus	false	none	124
869	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5902/sota-1-shot-on-on-miniimagenet-2021-06-14/	Metaculus	false	none	272
870	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in Average Precision (AP)?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5903/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2021-06-14/	Metaculus	false	none	167
871	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5904/image-classification-index-2021-06-14/	Metaculus	false	none	158
872	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5906/number-confirmed-global-covid-cases-by-2022/	Metaculus	false	none	158
873	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5907/number-confirmed-global-covid-deaths-by-2022/	Metaculus	false	none	127
874	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/	Metaculus	false	none	291
875	What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5909/covid-vaccine-doses-bought-by-us-by-june/	Metaculus	false	none	152
876	How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5910/covid-vaccines-approved-by-us-fda-by-june/	Metaculus	false	none	159
877	What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5911/april-2021-production-of-semiconducters/	Metaculus	false	none	139
878	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5912/when-will-us-allow-travel-from-europe/	Metaculus	false	none	165
879	Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/	Metaculus	true	30%	138
880	Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5915/will-us-aca-have-public-option-in-2021/	Metaculus	true	10%	111
881	Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5916/will-2021-be-the-hottest-year-on-record/	Metaculus	true	33%	190
882	When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5917/date-us-rejoins-paris-climate-agreement/	Metaculus	false	none	293
883	Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5918/world-to-agree-to-new-climate-targets-in-2021/	Metaculus	true	67%	96
884	Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5920/us-to-join-rcep-trade-pact-in-2021/	Metaculus	true	20%	100
885	What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5921/net-migration-to-uk-in-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	147
886	Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/	Metaculus	true	55.00000000000001%	134
887	What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5923/us-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	128
888	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2021-06-14 in perplexity?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5924/sota-perplexity-on-wikitext-103-2021-06-14/	Metaculus	false	none	153
889	What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5925/eu-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	81
890	Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5926/bear-market-in-sp-500-in-2021/	Metaculus	true	30%	215
891	What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/	Metaculus	false	none	177
892	What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5928/wti-oil-price-in-december-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	192
893	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5929/us-pev-sales-in-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	106
894	What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5931/number-of-commercial-flights-on-30-june-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	113
895	When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/	Metaculus	false	none	87
896	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5935/it-and-comms-weighting-in-sp500-2021-06-14/	Metaculus	false	none	209
897	What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5936/closing-price-igm-on-2021-06-14/	Metaculus	false	none	167
898	What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5937/sota-on-superglue-on-2021-06-14/	Metaculus	false	none	229
899	How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5938/multi-modal-ml-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/	Metaculus	false	none	157
900	What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5939/it-as--of-gdp-in-q1-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	189
901	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5940/squad20-sota-perfomance-2021-06-14/	Metaculus	false	none	170
902	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5941/sota-text-to-sql-on-wikisql-2021-06-14/	Metaculus	false	none	163
903	What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5942/box-office-gross-in-the-us--canada-in-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	90
904	How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5943/us-excess-covid-19-deaths/	Metaculus	false	none	64
905	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5946/sota-on-imagenet-on-2024-06-14/	Metaculus	false	none	167
906	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2026-12-14 in perplexity?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5947/sota-perplexity-on-wikitext-103-2026-12-14/	Metaculus	false	none	164
907	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5948/image-classification-index-2026-12-14/	Metaculus	false	none	148
908	What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2026 list?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5949/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-nov-2026/	Metaculus	false	none	142
909	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5950/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	133
910	What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on December 14, 2026?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5951/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/	Metaculus	false	none	139
911	What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2026-12-14 in 2020 USD?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5955/alphabet-incs-market-cap-on-2026-12-14/	Metaculus	false	none	169
912	What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q4 of 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5958/it-as--of-gdp-in-q4-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	150
913	What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2026, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5960/dec-2026-production-of-semiconductors/	Metaculus	false	none	113
914	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01 period?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5961/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-01-2031-01-01/	Metaculus	false	none	169
915	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-01-01 to 2027-01-01 period?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5962/few-shot-learning-2020-12-14-to-2027-01-01/	Metaculus	false	none	230
916	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5965/object-detection-index-2021-06-14/	Metaculus	false	none	166
917	What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5974/yang-last-round-vote-share-2021-ny-mayor/	Metaculus	false	none	54
918	Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5979/ca-gov-newsom-petitioned-for-recall-election/	Metaculus	true	71%	293
919	Will a Glastonbury Festival take place in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5986/glastonbury-festival-2021/	Metaculus	true	45%	63
920	What will the unemployment rate be for German law degree holders in 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5987/unemployment-rate-for-german-lawyers-in-2025/	Metaculus	false	none	30
921	For the month of February 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5990/february-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/	Metaculus	false	none	55
922	What will the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate (i.e. multi-family, industrial, retail, and hotel) be in Q2 of 2021, in the US?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5991/us-commercial-real-estate-vacancy-q2-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	37
923	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5992/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	33
924	Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5993/washington-q1-2021-business-income--q1-2019/	Metaculus	true	40%	35
925	What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5994/-change-in-pc-insurance-premiums-q1-2022/	Metaculus	false	none	20
926	For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5995/will-us-peak-unemployment-in-2021-be-in-q1/	Metaculus	true	67%	42
927	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5996/cares-act-unemployment-payments-in-2021-q1/	Metaculus	false	none	82
928	What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/	Metaculus	false	none	70
929	How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	41
930	Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6000/lives-saved-by-seconddosedelay-for-vaccine/	Metaculus	true	80%	92
931	When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 6%?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6002/gwp-growth-to-exceed-6/	Metaculus	false	none	30
932	How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6003/total-donated-by-hia-athletes-by-end-of-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	41
933	What fraction of High Impact Athletes pledge-takers will maintain it through the end of 2024?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6005/fraction-of-hia-pledges-still-active-in-2024/	Metaculus	false	none	29
934	Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6007/vaccine-update-due-to-mutation/	Metaculus	true	99%	284
935	Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/	Metaculus	true	61%	126
936	What proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6010/england-proportion-of-hospital-acquired-covid/	Metaculus	false	none	49
937	When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/	Metaculus	false	none	26
938	Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6018/burger-king-to-cease-using-gestation-stalls/	Metaculus	true	8%	46
939	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6020/charity-entrepreneurship-to-birth-top-ace-ngo/	Metaculus	true	44%	43
940	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6021/ce-to-incubate-ace-recommended-ngo-by-2025/	Metaculus	true	60%	40
941	When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6022/when-will-wild-animal-welfare-reach-top-uni/	Metaculus	false	none	79
942	Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6023/charity-in-china-to-ace-aces-criteria/	Metaculus	true	23%	80
943	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6024/sexual-scandal-amongst-animal-advocates/	Metaculus	true	15%	65
944	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6025/diversity-debacle-amongst-animal-advocates/	Metaculus	true	12%	59
945	How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6026/2021-donations-to-animal-charity-evaluators/	Metaculus	false	none	26
946	How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6027/money-moved-by-animal-charity-evaluators/	Metaculus	false	none	35
947	Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6028/nobel-prize-for-mmt-by-2041/	Metaculus	true	25%	18
948	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6029/flights-on-iata-vaccine-passports-in-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	66
949	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6031/more-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/	Metaculus	true	94%	351
950	When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/	Metaculus	false	none	68
951	Will any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6047/1m-lost-in-prediction-market/	Metaculus	true	30%	49
952	When will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6048/tomb-of-the-first-qin-emperor-opened/	Metaculus	false	none	18
953	Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6049/time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect/	Metaculus	true	76%	72
954	Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/	Metaculus	true	40%	319
955	What will be the median age of an employed person in the US in 2040?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6055/us-median-age-of-employed-person-by-2040/	Metaculus	false	none	16
956	How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6056/us-employment-of-ages-16-24-in-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	17
957	How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	18
958	How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6060/number-employed-in-us-retail-in-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	30
959	How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6061/number-employed-in-us-transport-industry-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	34
960	How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6062/number-employed-in-us-education-industry-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	30
961	When will the US achieve racial unemployment parity between racial groups labeled 'black' and 'white' by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6064/us-black-white-unemployment-parity/	Metaculus	false	none	38
962	How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6065/us-federal-budget-for-income-security-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	31
963	What percentage of the US federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6066/us-federal-budget-for-medicare-in-2024/	Metaculus	false	none	25
964	What will be the income ratio between men and women employed full-time by 2025 in the US?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6070/us-gender-income-ratio-by-2025/	Metaculus	false	none	18
965	Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/	Metaculus	true	69%	97
966	When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, "I Want My Hat Back"?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/	Metaculus	false	none	178
967	How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6091/open-phil-grants-to-ai-safety-in-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	40
968	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/	Metaculus	true	25%	101
969	What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6100/average-democracy-index-score-in-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	25
970	Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6102/anti-5g-attack-to-take-life-in-20212022/	Metaculus	true	35%	18
971	Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6104/b117-to-lock-down-3m-in-us-by-2021-03-11/	Metaculus	true	23%	115
972	When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/	Metaculus	false	none	135
973	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/	Metaculus	false	none	44
974	Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6108/norway-eea-membership-2025/	Metaculus	true	5%	41
975	In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6109/ea-donations-to-new-charities-in-2025/	Metaculus	false	none	29
976	What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6111/khan-final-round-mayoral-election-vote-share/	Metaculus	false	none	62
977	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6114/will-the-senate-confirm-many-judges-in-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	51
978	When will there be at least one billion Americans?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6119/when-will-there-be-at-least-1bn-americans/	Metaculus	false	none	64
979	What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6121/uk-index-of-economic-freedom-score-2025/	Metaculus	false	none	24
980	When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6124/astrazenecaoxford-vaccine-us-eua-date/	Metaculus	false	none	45
981	How good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6125/quality-of-retinal-implants-in-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	47
982	How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	43
983	What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6127/maximum-number-of-covid-19-cases-by-june-1st/	Metaculus	false	none	76
984	How much money will GiveWell move in 2031?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6140/how-much-money-will-givewell-move-in-2031/	Metaculus	false	none	15
985	By January 14 2022, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6148/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2022-01-14/	Metaculus	false	none	80
986	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6149/change-in-degree-of-automation/	Metaculus	false	none	82
987	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6154/sota-one-billion-words-2022-01-14/	Metaculus	false	none	66
988	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6155/image-classification-index-2022-01-14/	Metaculus	false	none	63
989	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6157/ai-safety--other-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/	Metaculus	false	none	55
990	Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6158/fluvoxamine-to-get-eua-for-covid-in-us/	Metaculus	true	19%	25
991	When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6168/meetings-of-six-people-outside-in-england/	Metaculus	false	none	67
992	When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/	Metaculus	false	none	39
993	When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6170/indoor-party-of-100-people-in-england/	Metaculus	false	none	45
994	How many consecutive Presidents of the United States will there be?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6175/number-of-united-states-presidents/	Metaculus	false	none	39
995	Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/	Metaculus	true	4%	143
996	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2022-01-14 in perplexity?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6182/sota-wikitext-103-2022-01-14/	Metaculus	false	none	65
997	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6183/sota-imagenet-2022-01-14/	Metaculus	false	none	86
998	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6184/sota-on-squad20-2022-01-14/	Metaculus	false	none	58
999	How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6185/multi-modal-ml-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/	Metaculus	false	none	49
1000	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6191/sota-on-miniimagenet-at-2022-01-14/	Metaculus	false	none	65
1001	By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6192/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2031-01-01/	Metaculus	false	none	61
1002	What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/	Metaculus	false	none	68
1003	When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/	Metaculus	false	none	111
1004	When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6201/25-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/	Metaculus	false	none	83
1005	Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/	Metaculus	true	5%	317
1006	Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/	Metaculus	true	20%	95
1007	How many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6221/patients-at-chinese-cryonics-org-by-2026/	Metaculus	false	none	18
1008	When will the next interstellar object be discovered?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6225/next-interstellar-object/	Metaculus	false	none	41
1009	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6227/sota-segmentation-cityscapes-2022-01-14/	Metaculus	false	none	63
1010	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2026-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6228/sota-on-imagenet-2026-12-14/	Metaculus	false	none	55
1011	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6229/sota-on-wikitext-103-2024-12-14/	Metaculus	false	none	61
1012	What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6230/sota-montezumas-revenge-2022-01-14/	Metaculus	false	none	80
1013	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6231/object-detection-index-2022-01-14/	Metaculus	false	none	56
1014	What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2021 list?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6232/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-nov-21/	Metaculus	false	none	66
1015	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/	Metaculus	false	none	76
1016	What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6234/performance-of-top-supercomputer-in-june-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	69
1017	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to December 2026?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6236/change-in-degree-of-automation-20-to-26/	Metaculus	false	none	63
1018	How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6237/num-of-first-doses-given-in-uk-by-15-feb/	Metaculus	false	none	210
1019	When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/	Metaculus	false	none	108
1020	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6240/it-and-comms-weighting-in-sp500-2022-01-14/	Metaculus	false	none	60
1021	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/	Metaculus	false	none	108
1022	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6245/few-shot-learning-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/	Metaculus	false	none	57
1023	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6246/nlp-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/	Metaculus	false	none	53
1024	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in average precision (AP)?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6248/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2022-01-14/	Metaculus	false	none	48
1025	What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/	Metaculus	false	none	49
1026	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6250/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2022-01-14/	Metaculus	false	none	42
1027	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6252/object-detection-index-2026-12-14/	Metaculus	false	none	55
1028	What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6255/closing-price-igm-on-2030-12-13/	Metaculus	false	none	47
1029	What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6256/median-wage-for-computer-scientists-2029/	Metaculus	false	none	49
1030	When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/	Metaculus	false	none	87
1031	Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6291/trump-family-indictments-in-2021/	Metaculus	true	34%	122
1032	Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6295/increase-in-us-poverty-from-2020-to-2021/	Metaculus	true	57.99999999999999%	49
1033	Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/	Metaculus	true	70%	39
1034	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6298/cv-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/	Metaculus	false	none	38
1035	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6299/nlo-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2030-01-14/	Metaculus	false	none	58
1036	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6300/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2027-01-01/	Metaculus	false	none	42
1037	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6301/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2021/	Metaculus	false	none	48
1038	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6302/sota-1-shot-on-miniimagenet-at-2024-12-14/	Metaculus	false	none	66
1039	What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/	Metaculus	false	none	58
1040	Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6307/median-bay-area-house-prices-in-2021/	Metaculus	true	20%	17
1041	What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6308/change-in-stis-from-2019-to-2020-in-england/	Metaculus	false	none	38
1042	How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6311/biden-executive-orders-in-first-term/	Metaculus	false	none	27
1043	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/	Metaculus	true	28.000000000000004%	85
1044	Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6316/india-gdp-growth-in-q1-q3-2021/	Metaculus	true	75%	28
1045	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6325/us-below-100-covid-deaths-per-day/	Metaculus	false	none	35
1046	When, if ever, will 17 year olds vote in the US?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6326/17-year-old-suffrage-in-the-us/	Metaculus	false	none	22
1047	How many countries will allow 17 year olds to vote in 2026?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6327/youth-voting-around-the-world-in-2026/	Metaculus	false	none	22
1048	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/	Metaculus	true	52%	151
1049	Will the CDU continue to govern Germany?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cducsu-chancellor-after-2021-elections/	Metaculus	true	75%	26
1050	When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/	Metaculus	false	none	94
1051	When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/	Metaculus	false	none	24
1052	What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/	Metaculus	false	none	100
1053	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6348/ea-global-london-2021-rescheduled/	Metaculus	true	40%	17
1054	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6352/insurrection-act-invoked-before-2025/	Metaculus	true	16%	32
1055	Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6356/aes-256-broken-by-2040/	Metaculus	true	9%	50
1056	Will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true by 2100?	https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-hypothesis-proved-true-by-2100/	Metaculus	true	88%	13