metaforecast/data/elicit-binary_export.csv

"questionTitle","prediction","resolution","predictionCreator","questionCreator","notes","questionNotes","questionTags","privacyStatus","questionPrivacyStatus","createdAt","questionCreatedAt","resolvesBy"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",15,,"Jsevillamol","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T19:48:01.274Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",24,,"Jsevillamol","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T19:47:55.483Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",16,,"Jsevillamol","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T19:47:52.784Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",23,,"Jsevillamol","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T19:47:52.433Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",15,,"Jsevillamol","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T19:47:51.690Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",21,,"Jsevillamol","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T19:47:49.217Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",36,,"Jsevillamol","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T19:47:47.125Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",43,,"Jsevillamol","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T19:47:45.981Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",69,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T19:16:59.296Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",70,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T19:16:56.179Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",29,,"jacobjacob","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T19:10:08.332Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",27,,"Gurkenglas","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T19:06:15.553Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",23,,"Gurkenglas","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T19:06:14.396Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",53,,"H27yvCiy","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T21:58:58.269Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",28,,"Gurkenglas","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T19:06:13.528Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",55,,"jan betley","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T15:17:11.282Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",52,,"jan betley","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T15:17:21.118Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",99,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:03:01.980Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",80,,"kotrfa","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T07:36:25.991Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",70,,"gt22","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-17T19:22:45.087Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",46,,"Veers","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T21:13:22.952Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",47,,"Veers","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T21:13:21.717Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",77,,"pepe_prime","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T23:42:51.850Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",10,,"Kaj_Sotala","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:26:35.314Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",68,,"gt22","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-17T19:22:43.670Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",70,,"gt22","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-17T19:22:40.916Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",79,,"gwillen","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T23:51:07.716Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",86,,"Maxwell Peterson","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:14:14.005Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",67,,"ChristianKl","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T17:22:27.487Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",70,,"Thomas Kwa","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T22:04:25.131Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",45,,"Veers","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T21:13:20.015Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",44,,"Veers","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T21:13:19.249Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",40,,"masasin","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T19:51:03.565Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",46,,"jp","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T15:50:26.793Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",66,,"Anomander","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T11:32:16.489Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",51,,"Liam Donovan","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T06:09:04.932Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",72,,"ChristianKl","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T17:22:29.714Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",63,,"Bruce G","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:47:51.891Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",61,,"ChristianKl","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T17:22:31.427Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",51,,"ChristianKl","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T17:22:32.506Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",12,,"ChristianKl","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T17:22:34.279Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",80,,"ChristianKl","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T17:22:35.668Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",69,,"ChristianKl","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T17:22:36.237Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",90,,"nafal","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T18:23:26.618Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",37,,"Drea","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T02:15:50.862Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",94,,"Self_Optimization","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:13:14.764Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",80,,"Richard_Ngo","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T03:04:04.629Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",72,,"ChristianKl","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T17:22:37.402Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",99,,"cozy","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T20:59:58.798Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",34,,"sebastiankosch","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T04:30:13.633Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",47,,"sebastiankosch","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T04:30:15.794Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",51,,"sebastiankosch","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T04:30:17.563Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",1,,"Mati Roy","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T21:18:40.817Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",36,,"Stuckwork","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T12:25:30.550Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",40,,"炉子里有一块冰月亮","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T16:38:56.507Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",36,,"Matej Vrzala (M4)","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-30T11:25:10.082Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",81,,"Nebulus","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:46:06.772Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",1,,"Nebulus","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:44:48.675Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",49,,"Matej Vrzala (M4)","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-30T11:25:11.858Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",56,,"Matej Vrzala (M4)","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-30T11:25:51.236Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",66,,"Matej Vrzala (M4)","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-30T11:25:51.297Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",73,,"Matej Vrzala (M4)","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-30T11:25:52.104Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",0,,"hitobashira.counter","Amanda N","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-01T08:32:56.135Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",13,,"qassiov","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T17:46:42.248Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",17,,"qassiov","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T17:46:46.032Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",10,,"jungwon","Amanda N","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-03T16:20:16.085Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",83,,"magfrump","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T01:00:29.161Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",73,,"magfrump","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T01:00:28.145Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",34,,"Harmless","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-15T17:32:30.427Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",53,,"Harmless","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-15T17:32:19.765Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",95,,"magfrump","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T01:00:25.500Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",50,,"Harmless","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-15T17:32:00.038Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",4,,"Nebulus","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:44:46.460Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",88,,"Nebulus","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:44:44.425Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",56,,"Nebulus","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:44:43.336Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",47,,"Nebulus","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:44:42.320Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",54,,"Nebulus","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:44:41.032Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",66,,"Nebulus","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:44:39.988Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",62,,"Nebulus","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:44:38.914Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",65,,"Nebulus","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:44:22.012Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",66,,"kilotaras","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T20:36:31.511Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",68,,"kilotaras","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T20:36:30.658Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",33,,"Florian H","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T08:46:10.672Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",76,,"AnthonyC","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T16:51:02.024Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",24,,"metroskedastic","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T15:59:54.900Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",83,,"Hazard","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T14:35:04.910Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",27,,"Hazard","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T14:34:48.765Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",78,,"kilotaras","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T20:36:24.898Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",56,,"Hazard","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T14:34:33.929Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",73,,"Hazard","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T14:27:01.313Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",62,,"Radical Bacon","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T14:18:56.604Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",32,,"Radical Bacon","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T14:18:55.739Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",51,,"Radical Bacon","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T14:18:55.016Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",37,,"Radical Bacon","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T14:18:52.341Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",73,,"Bucky","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T20:03:24.990Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",62,,"Hazard","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T14:26:58.311Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",56,,"Hazard","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T14:26:54.974Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",58,,"gimpf","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T14:21:52.678Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",90,,"Davidmanheim","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:39:42.770Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",77,,"Bucky","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T20:03:24.268Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",61,,"Bucky","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T20:03:23.821Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",32,,"Bucky","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T19:38:34.273Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",42,,"Bucky","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T19:38:32.325Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",64,,"Bucky","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T19:38:22.176Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",36,,"Radical Bacon","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T14:18:50.847Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",50,,"gjm","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T14:06:34.935Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",25,,"Bucky","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T19:37:48.069Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",63,,"lalaithion","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T19:55:15.316Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",50,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T12:18:19.679Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",46,,"Bucky","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T19:37:45.585Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",65,,"BrianTan","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T07:32:10.805Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",62,,"Bucky","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T19:37:36.763Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",65,,"Bucky","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T19:37:35.039Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",72,,"libero","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T09:40:46.737Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",68,,"Andreas S","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T01:12:48.308Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",68,,"Bucky","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T19:37:27.276Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",62,,"Rade Woosh","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T19:24:49.600Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",66,,"Rade Woosh","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T19:24:35.078Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",25,,"Rade Woosh","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T19:24:27.093Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",59,,"Rade Woosh","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T19:24:24.293Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",15,,"Rade Woosh","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T19:24:22.008Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",60,,"Rade Woosh","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T19:24:19.324Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",61,,"BrianTan","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T07:32:09.051Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",67,,"Rade Woosh","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T19:24:18.155Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",40,,"Perhaps","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T15:06:06.211Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",75,,"CptDrMoreno","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T15:15:42.352Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",37,,"this.is.patrick","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T15:42:33.728Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",96,,"Zvi","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T17:40:46.968Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",75,,"adamShimi","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T17:28:41.823Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",75,,"GBernosky","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T15:54:51.502Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",62,,"Charbel-Raphaël Segerie","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T17:10:02.286Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",68,,"jp","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T16:32:33.392Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",65,,"dxu","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T03:59:37.860Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",55,,"dxu","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T03:59:36.618Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",1,,"Nicolas Lacombe","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T00:41:19.805Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",65,,"jp","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T16:32:33.389Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",51,,"jp","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T16:32:33.387Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",1,,"jp","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T16:32:33.381Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",80,,"Cory","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-04T05:50:07.966Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",63,,"dxu","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T03:59:35.560Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",67,,"dxu","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T03:59:33.953Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",61,,"steven0461","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T03:58:49.285Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",61,,"agc","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T09:51:22.793Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",56,,"agc","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T09:51:25.108Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",66,,"agc","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T09:51:26.580Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",62,,"agc","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T09:51:28.018Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",54,,"agc","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T09:51:33.325Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",40,,"William_S","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:58:05.695Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",40,,"Eli Lifland","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T19:03:09.346Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",93,,"Mark Xu","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:51:44.574Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",80,,"TurnTrout","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T15:24:28.730Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",46,,"Eli Lifland","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:25:38.437Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",53,,"Eli Lifland","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:27:41.486Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",60,,"Eli Lifland","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:03:46.096Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",64,,"ld97","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T13:08:40.925Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",63,,"ld97","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T13:08:46.631Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",69,,"ld97","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T13:08:46.790Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",40,,"Yoav Ravid","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-05T08:11:40.874Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",43,,"Yoav Ravid","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-05T08:12:03.184Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",40,,"Yoav Ravid","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-05T08:12:04.788Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",45,,"Eric Miller","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T05:19:14.125Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",65,,"Eric Miller","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T05:19:11.348Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",59,,"Eric Miller","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T05:19:08.012Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",53,,"Orfeas","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T19:14:06.171Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",66,,"ld97","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T13:08:47.827Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",75,,"yagudin","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T14:47:18.006Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",56,,"berekuk","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T14:35:44.775Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",95,,"Davidmanheim","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:39:46.098Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",61,,"berekuk","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T14:35:43.536Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",58,,"berekuk","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T14:35:31.813Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",70,,"Viktor Poletansky","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T14:29:39.754Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",71,,"MinusGix","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T14:19:13.649Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",72,,"Vanessa Kosoy","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:41:46.066Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",80,,"Eigil Rischel","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:16:17.889Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",13,,"Rana Dexsin","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:27:57.314Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",75,,"gsastry","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T18:34:41.199Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",64,,"Astor","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:05:19.798Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",71,,"Astor","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:05:18.601Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",67,,"Astor","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:05:17.251Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",75,,"Andrew_Critch","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T20:57:28.887Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",86,,"Andrew_Critch","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T20:57:19.041Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",98,,"kotrfa","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T07:34:31.265Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",67,,"ld97","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T13:08:56.815Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",66,,"MikkW","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T22:57:58.880Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",91,,"Astor","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:05:10.461Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",95,,"jacobjacob","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T19:43:49.380Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",57,,"jacobjacob","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T19:43:54.242Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",73,,"crabman","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:12:04.605Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",69,,"MikkW","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T22:57:59.344Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",73,,"Andrew_Critch","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T20:57:18.146Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",64,,"Andrew_Critch","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T20:57:17.534Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",76,,"magfrump","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T01:00:38.862Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",74,,"Andrew_Critch","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T20:57:17.159Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",64,,"Andrew_Critch","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T20:57:14.612Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",55,,"Andrew_Critch","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T20:57:13.995Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",54,,"Andrew_Critch","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T20:57:13.185Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",75,,"magfrump","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T01:02:21.058Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",57,,"Eli Lifland","Amanda N","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T01:10:10.637Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",88,,"Mathisco","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:14:19.556Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",87,,"Mathisco","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:14:18.881Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",86,,"Mathisco","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:14:14.937Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",94,,"Mathisco","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:14:09.940Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",98,,"Mathisco","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:14:08.521Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",91,,"Mathisco","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:14:07.913Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",93,,"Mathisco","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:14:07.143Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",95,,"Mathisco","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:14:05.928Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",94,,"Mathisco","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:14:03.721Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",66,,"Raphaël Lévy","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T21:36:33.620Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",74,,"Raphaël Lévy","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T21:36:35.497Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",56,,"Raphaël Lévy","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T21:36:37.134Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",64,,"MikkW","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T22:58:01.894Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",36,,"Chris Cooper","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T12:10:34.473Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",65,,"Raphaël Lévy","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T21:36:38.687Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",74,,"Raphaël Lévy","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T21:36:39.024Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",67,,"karlkeefer","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T07:32:01.695Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",65,,"samshap","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T00:10:17.112Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",50,,"Vitor","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-27T23:05:00.998Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",65,,"MikkW","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T22:58:03.423Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",55,,"MikkW","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T22:58:06.552Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",49,,"MikkW","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T22:58:16.288Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",66,,"Raphaël Lévy","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T21:36:39.650Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",58,,"Raphaël Lévy","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T21:36:42.100Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",85,,"__nobody","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:28:39.413Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",40,,"mr-hire","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:06:26.917Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",60,,"Raphaël Lévy","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T21:36:52.781Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",49,,"Amanda N","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:55:34.534Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",78,,"jacobjacob","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T02:29:35.207Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",36,,"jacobjacob","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T02:29:36.163Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",87,,"jacobjacob","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T02:29:37.315Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",52,,"jacobjacob","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T02:29:38.508Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",67,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:03:15.705Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",50,,"mr-hire","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:05:48.231Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",46,,"mr-hire","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:05:24.838Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",83,,"alkjash","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T22:08:18.678Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",44,,"KingBoomie","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-27T13:34:27.741Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",64,,"Tristan Burgess","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-27T11:02:02.488Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",81,,"Oscilllator","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-27T08:55:58.370Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",81,,"sharps030","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-27T08:47:09.955Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",90,,"Ege Erdogan","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-27T08:13:50.258Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",90,,"df fd","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:54:30.338Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",65,,"Vaniver","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:34:46.116Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",5,,"Vaniver","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:34:29.169Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",7,,"Vaniver","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:34:25.402Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",50,,"Sidok","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T05:13:08.236Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",47,,"ViktorThink","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T08:37:10.232Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",50,,"Gurkenglas","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:31:37.440Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",60,,"Gurkenglas","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:31:32.385Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",95,,"Zolmeister","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:03:28.961Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",90,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T03:30:34.446Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",82,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T03:30:24.977Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",76,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T03:30:24.090Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",75,,"DanielFilan","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T03:14:13.971Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",21,,"Nihal M","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T03:06:37.839Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",66,,"Nihal M","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T03:06:23.174Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",45,,"jimrandomh","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T03:06:22.528Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",70,,"GuySrinivasan","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T03:06:04.535Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",40,,"DanielFilan","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:40:23.171Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",65,,"DanielFilan","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:39:49.748Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",63,,"Eli Lifland","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:03:44.473Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",1,,"dvasya","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:29:35.254Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",36,,"erintatum","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:13:21.084Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",80,,"Telofy","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T23:40:37.695Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",33,,"erintatum","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:13:20.588Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",37,,"erintatum","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:13:13.766Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",68,,"VermillionStuka","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T00:13:00.150Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",26,,"anifru","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T00:08:58.821Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",19,,"anifru","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T00:08:57.836Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",8,,"anifru","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T00:08:56.746Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",40,,"Telofy","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T00:01:45.264Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",60,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T23:50:47.943Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",57,,"jungwon","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T23:06:57.069Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",42,,"jungwon","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T23:06:55.552Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",16,,"jungwon","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T23:06:54.992Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",5,,"jungwon","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T23:06:53.995Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",99,,"Ericf","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T23:20:28.077Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",57,,"Teerth Aloke","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T07:30:43.524Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",31,,"gjm","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T22:29:49.780Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",20,,"gjm","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T22:27:06.411Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",68,,"Teerth Aloke","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T07:30:43.536Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",58,,"bgold","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T22:02:41.411Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",76,,"bgold","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T22:02:32.117Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",99,,"frontier64","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:51:52.155Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",93,,"frontier64","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:51:48.894Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",55,,"frontier64","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:51:41.874Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",52,,"Owain_Evans","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:49:16.511Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",66,,"Ethan Perez","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:42:14.581Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",50,,"Sean Hardy","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T08:32:53.236Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",59,,"Sean Hardy","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T08:32:56.075Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",44,,"Raemon","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:40:11.418Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",26,,"Raemon","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:40:06.138Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",23,,"abramdemski","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:38:18.987Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",33,,"abramdemski","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:38:16.815Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",55,,"Sean Hardy","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T08:32:58.070Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",60,,"Eli Lifland","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:48:06.674Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",35,,"Raemon","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:30:08.742Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",25,,"abramdemski","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:29:55.366Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",15,,"abramdemski","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:29:52.999Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",9,,"abramdemski","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:29:50.501Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",33,,"abramdemski","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:29:47.863Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",24,,"abramdemski","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:29:46.527Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",81,,"Zvi","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T00:05:43.057Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",36,,"abramdemski","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:29:30.803Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",54,,"Sean Hardy","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T08:33:02.521Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",42,,"Rafael Harth","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:00:39.962Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",55,,"fin","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:51:02.397Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",30,,"adamzerner","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:42:58.906Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",55,,"Andreas S","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:10:58.946Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",66,,"Mark Xu","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:54:07.277Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",45,,"Eli Lifland","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:14:36.662Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",78,,"niplav","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-19T14:56:00.458Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",6,,"Alexei","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:42:34.060Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",67,,"Mark Xu","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:54:06.169Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",84,,"ozziegooen","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:28:05.551Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",90,,"ozziegooen","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:28:04.272Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",32,,"ozziegooen","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:28:03.857Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",86,,"ozziegooen","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:27:47.535Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",45,,"gilch","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:17:52.236Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",99,,"Oskar Mathiasen","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:12:19.536Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",66,,"Multicore","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:11:54.235Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",30,,"Amanda N","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T18:29:55.610Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",75,,"zak","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T19:54:07.283Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",41,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:02:43.361Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",42,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:02:42.603Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",44,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:02:42.151Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",45,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:02:38.599Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",50,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:02:29.553Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",45,,"NunoSempere","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:02:21.866Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",44,,"NunoSempere","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:02:16.641Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",97,,"Rudi C","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T16:38:47.872Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",55,,"Sean Hardy","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T08:33:01.636Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",70,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T19:59:16.127Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",57,,"Sean Hardy","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T08:33:00.397Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",30,,"G Gordon Worley III","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T19:54:09.241Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",54,,"Sean Hardy","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T08:32:59.689Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",33,,"Andreas S","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T18:58:36.171Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",18,,"Jsevillamol","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T19:49:12.882Z","2020-11-20T17:39:35.220Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",50,,"Gunnar_Zarncke","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:24:00.253Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",66,,"Gunnar_Zarncke","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:28:45.355Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",98,,"Ethan Perez","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T06:28:22.375Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",97,,"Ethan Perez","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T06:28:16.843Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",99,,"Telofy","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:56:41.653Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",94,,"Striving4Consistency","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T22:45:03.905Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",86,,"Striving4Consistency","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T22:45:05.335Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",73,,"Striving4Consistency","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T22:45:08.831Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",85,,"mr-hire","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T05:09:04.167Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",96,,"mr-hire","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T05:09:04.155Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",89,,"mr-hire","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T05:09:04.129Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",91,,"mr-hire","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T05:09:04.119Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",99,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T02:35:55.204Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",97,,"akaTrickster","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T17:27:56.855Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",98,,"Benjy Forstadt","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T23:01:20.610Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",95,,"Benjy Forstadt","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T23:01:20.683Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",99,,"Benjy Forstadt","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T23:01:21.773Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",97,,"Benjy Forstadt","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T23:01:22.527Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",99,,"Emiya","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:35:08.730Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",95,,"Mary Phuong","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T14:17:37.497Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",99,,"algon33","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:38:09.677Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",96,,"Mason Wang","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:53:23.095Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",91,,"fiddler","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T18:16:44.436Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",90,,"fiddler","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T18:16:46.233Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",87,,"BrianTan","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T07:30:52.995Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",83,,"BrianTan","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T07:30:49.841Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",95,,"Aaron Gertler","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-04T06:45:46.204Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",99,,"Aaron Gertler","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-04T06:45:48.301Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",15,,"Aaron Gertler","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-04T06:47:15.435Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",99,,"Aaron Gertler","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-04T06:47:16.973Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",90,,"Darius_Meissner","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-04T10:19:59.188Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",99,,"Darius_Meissner","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-04T10:20:02.421Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",96,,"florian-z","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-04T12:55:45.881Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",95,,"florian-z","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-04T12:56:05.666Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",58,,"Jason Schukraft","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-04T15:06:19.539Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",99,,"EdoArad","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-04T17:21:21.044Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",98,,"Misha_Yagudin","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-04T20:14:48.388Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",96,,"OlyaBabe","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-04T22:07:27.166Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",93,,"Lukas_Finnveden","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-05T10:11:34.557Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",98,,"Lukas_Finnveden","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-05T10:11:38.514Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",94,,"Lukas_Finnveden","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-05T10:11:39.665Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",96,,"Lukas_Finnveden","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-05T10:11:41.160Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",95,,"Lukas_Finnveden","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-05T10:11:42.188Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",95,,"Isaac_Dunn","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-05T18:09:09.731Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",97,,"Isaac_Dunn","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-05T18:09:15.019Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",73,,"james_aung","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-06T09:07:00.225Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",87,,"james_aung","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-06T09:07:00.730Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",92,,"james_aung","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-06T09:07:02.265Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",99,,"Mr Axilus","Amanda N","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-06T12:53:06.437Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",98,,"seed","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T17:21:05.217Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",90,,"Patrick","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-27T22:43:09.345Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",90,,"Patrick","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-27T22:43:07.875Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",93,,"Zack P","Amanda N","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-07T18:27:09.125Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",1,,"Pablo","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T11:49:14.342Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",42,,"Pablo","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T11:49:54.027Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",94,,"Pablo","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:14:58.934Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",90,,"Patrick","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-27T22:43:07.492Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",90,,"Patrick","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-27T22:43:06.642Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",94,,"Charlie Jackson","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-27T07:40:18.222Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",40,,"alokja","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T21:56:54.881Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",99,,"Kit Harris","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-10T11:10:20.448Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",92,,"Neel Nanda","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-10T12:37:09.061Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",95,,"Alejandro Acelas","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-10T17:04:01.301Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",97,,"Alejandro Acelas","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-10T17:04:03.340Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",63,,"dregntael","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-13T08:37:47.018Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",74,,"dregntael","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-13T08:37:47.147Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",65,,"João Bosco Lucena Filho","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T21:24:12.995Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",84,,"dregntael","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-13T08:37:47.988Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",97,,"dregntael","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-13T08:37:58.058Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",95,,"dregntael","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-13T08:38:00.605Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",94,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:27:20.222Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",97,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:27:15.810Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",99,,"Jeffrey Yun","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:13:12.494Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",36,,"Jeffrey Yun","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:13:06.644Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",67,,"Jeffrey Yun","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:13:02.840Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",56,,"Jeffrey Yun","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:13:02.803Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",99,,"Jeffrey Yun","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:12:59.910Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",90,,"Jeffrey Yun","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:12:57.942Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",91,,"Jeffrey Yun","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:12:54.116Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",99,,"Jeffrey Yun","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:12:00.953Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",97,,"Jeffrey Yun","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:11:58.642Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",77,,"Morpheus","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:06:47.630Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",100,,"hitobashira.counter","Amanda N","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-01T08:33:13.129Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",90,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:18:07.830Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",76,,"Elias Edgren","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T17:09:30.293Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",99,,"Perhaps","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T21:32:02.952Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",99,,"Max_Daniel","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T17:39:06.153Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",92,,"Max_Daniel","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T17:39:03.533Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",97,,"JasperGeh","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:52:31.068Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",96,,"JasperGeh","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:52:26.690Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",94,,"JasperGeh","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:52:24.806Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",85,,"meanderingmoose","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T15:36:51.400Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",95,,"rohinmshah","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T16:43:18.705Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",90,,"rohinmshah","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T16:44:09.051Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",98,,"The_Golden_Compass","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T16:41:13.729Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",99,,"The_Golden_Compass","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T16:41:11.444Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",85,,"Gurkenglas","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T14:15:28.634Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",90,,"Gurkenglas","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T14:15:14.068Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",83,,"this.is.patrick","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T13:38:56.978Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",85,,"Mark Xu","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:58:54.065Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",80,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:53:15.663Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",99,,"Archimedes","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:05:55.233Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",75,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:42:10.089Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",14,,"jacobjacob","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:13:17.101Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",57,,"jacobjacob","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:13:29.719Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",77,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:15:24.523Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",40,,"jimrandomh","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:15:46.378Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",75,,"Ruby","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:15:58.662Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",72,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:17:30.531Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",75,,"Eli Lifland","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:05:03.931Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",65,,"Amanda N","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:06:40.034Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",63,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:17:38.270Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",65,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:17:39.017Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",95,,"nathanpmyoung","Amanda N","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-05T20:36:54.716Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",85,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T03:50:20.873Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",80,,"Gurkenglas","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:18:48.287Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",75,,"Zolmeister","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:21:56.592Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",95,,"Pialgo","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T09:27:43.283Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",70,,"Angela Pretorius","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:16:58.838Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",59,,"platers","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:32:19.888Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",71,,"platers","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:32:38.728Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",65,,"DanielFilan","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:42:39.733Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",80,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:04:55.173Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",74,,"TurnTrout","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:11:52.433Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",95,,"Alex K. Chen","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T04:35:59.380Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",85,,"jacobjacob","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:22:03.337Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",64,,"Maxwell Peterson","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:34:26.817Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",75,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:36:28.787Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",74,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:36:31.702Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",85,,"VermillionStuka","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:49:15.580Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",74,,"ozziegooen","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T07:30:27.439Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",80,,"Andreas S","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T23:34:17.569Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",91,,"Mati Roy","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T22:02:03.966Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",90,,"Mati Roy","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T22:01:48.379Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",52,,"shminux","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:20:47.881Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",85,,"Sokodler","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:37:38.030Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",76,,"Sokodler","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:37:42.205Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",63,,"Lanrian","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:46:49.599Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",70,,"Lanrian","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:46:52.961Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",60,,"Zack_M_Davis","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:48:45.196Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",97,,"arxhy","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T23:24:34.565Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",50,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:18:54.103Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",60,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:46:05.925Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",61,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:46:12.271Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",62,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:46:13.007Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",60,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:46:20.542Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",59,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:46:29.444Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",66,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:01:44.543Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",80,,"Maria Shakhova","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:02:10.082Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",89,,"Ozyrus","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:05:52.378Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",95,,"D0TheMath","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T20:48:46.228Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",44,,"avturchin","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:44:54.205Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",65,,"frankybegs","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:00:03.479Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",68,,"Rana Dexsin","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:08:13.799Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",70,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:29:09.068Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",99,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T19:42:10.856Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",67,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:31:35.766Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",25,,"Oskar Press Mathiasen","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:25:02.250Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",76,,"Vanilla_cabs","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:33:19.768Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",99,,"Jonas","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T19:37:17.048Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",82,,"Eli Lifland","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:24:19.921Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",80,,"Eli Lifland","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:24:15.601Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",90,,"RowanE","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:40:17.978Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",61,,"Rafael Harth","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:47:35.258Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",90,,"bon","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T14:02:15.738Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",93,,"HT U","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T15:14:29.412Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",91,,"HT U","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T15:14:35.122Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",91,,"David Pape","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T14:54:40.773Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",90,,"NaiveTortoise","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T15:57:44.481Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",85,,"technicalities","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T16:19:46.930Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",99,,"yagudin","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T16:31:01.013Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",95,,"technicalities","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T16:33:59.124Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",82,,"Zvi","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T16:50:13.316Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",92,,"Zvi","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T16:50:45.057Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",87,,"Zvi","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T16:50:58.399Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",95,,"gabriel b","Amanda N","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T16:00:06.084Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",99,,"nathanpmyoung","Amanda N","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-05T20:37:07.262Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",90,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T17:56:27.330Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",95,,"Matthew Barnett","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T18:04:44.439Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",80,,"paulfchristiano","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T18:12:07.922Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",85,,"Tamay","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T18:21:19.640Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",86,,"the coding dog","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T19:01:08.112Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",83,,"the coding dog","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T19:01:10.943Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",84,,"the coding dog","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T19:01:13.426Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",95,,"the coding dog","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T19:01:13.428Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",93,,"the coding dog","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T19:01:22.303Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",70,,"SinguLarry","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T09:35:17.460Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",99,,"Alexei","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T20:34:53.549Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",97,,"Hjalmar_Wijk","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T14:55:41.092Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",95,,"__nobody","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:42:48.934Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",93,,"peterbarnett","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:50:37.045Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",96,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:51:29.738Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",82,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:53:21.059Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",93,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:53:22.092Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",84,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:53:23.513Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",95,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:53:23.556Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",54,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:53:24.842Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",94,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:53:26.123Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",98,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:55:02.953Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",99,,"kittH","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T01:37:26.271Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",63,,"Tachikoma","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T01:47:04.834Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",76,,"Tachikoma","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T01:47:05.718Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",71,,"Tachikoma","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T01:47:06.241Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",64,,"Tachikoma","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T01:47:06.675Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",46,,"Tachikoma","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T01:47:07.334Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",1,,"Tachikoma","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T02:01:09.963Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",84,,"steven0461","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T04:05:36.491Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",75,,"Dach","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T06:23:12.811Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",85,,"Dach","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T06:23:22.113Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",28,,"Sinclair Chen","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T09:14:28.496Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",33,,"Sinclair Chen","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T09:14:29.568Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",36,,"Sinclair Chen","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T09:15:53.344Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",41,,"Sinclair Chen","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T09:15:54.465Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",97,,"Sinclair Chen","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T09:15:54.641Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",99,,"Sinclair Chen","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T09:15:54.675Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",97,,"Jsevillamol","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T09:41:46.367Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",90,,"newcom","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T10:45:21.567Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",99,,"Mikhail Samin","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T12:13:34.555Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",99,,"Self_Optimization","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:13:58.126Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",90,,"Alex Ray","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:12:35.522Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",75,,"SoerenMind","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:46:59.706Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",96,,"Alibi","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T18:00:19.716Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",99,,"adamShimi","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:41:17.398Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",99,,"Davidmanheim","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:43:46.999Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",75,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:16:54.898Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",81,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:16:56.338Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",80,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:16:56.385Z","2020-11-20T21:37:16.086Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",52,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T23:32:57.709Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",22,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:22:21.844Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",91,,"alanwzhg","Amanda N","laplace","","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T00:25:02.823Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",25,,"technicalities","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T16:26:37.922Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",2,,"NaiveTortoise","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T15:58:02.679Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",65,,"Ruby","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:19:17.734Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",19,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:22:14.742Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",15,,"Eli Lifland","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:07:16.804Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",2,,"alokja","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T21:57:42.526Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",80,,"David Pape","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T14:54:54.998Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",23,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:22:09.057Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",33,,"RowanE","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:40:36.859Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",90,,"Zack_M_Davis","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:45:10.168Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",26,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:20:58.432Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",10,,"matthew.vandermerwe","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T18:16:39.503Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",10,,"Morpheus","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:16:10.968Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",20,,"Neel Nanda","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-10T12:37:29.440Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",15,,"Morpheus","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:14:31.911Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",30,,"Yair Halberstadt","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T14:43:09.477Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",51,,"dregntael","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-13T08:39:03.111Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",46,,"arxhy","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T23:25:12.411Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",47,,"arxhy","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T23:25:11.563Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",53,,"arxhy","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T23:25:07.572Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",40,,"Alex Ray","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:13:35.338Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",10,,"seed","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T17:22:15.396Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",20,,"__nobody","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T23:36:25.560Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",74,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:21:21.324Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",25,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:18:32.800Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",50,,"Perhaps","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T21:53:37.075Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",50,,"Gurkenglas","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:20:14.337Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",85,,"ete","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:13:47.462Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",73,,"jacobjacob","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:14:11.345Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",90,,"Telofy","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:49:08.690Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",73,,"Adam Scholl","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:29:59.351Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",30,,"Raemon","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:13:50.315Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",45,,"Pialgo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T09:28:14.350Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",31,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:39:12.212Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",10,,"digital_carver","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T11:18:44.994Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",73,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:37:04.405Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",21,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:18:36.147Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",10,,"this.is.patrick","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T13:40:34.864Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",34,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:39:11.403Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",58,,"Rafael Harth","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:59:07.288Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",32,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:39:11.239Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",32,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:39:09.131Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",35,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:39:07.764Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",10,,"Andreas S","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T23:36:55.590Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",24,,"Lanrian","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:47:51.405Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",34,,"Teerth Aloke","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T13:04:07.269Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",5,,"rohinmshah","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T16:34:42.992Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",95,,"ete","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T22:56:45.592Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",78,,"Adam Scholl","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:29:37.538Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",20,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:19:01.923Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",51,,"Ozyrus","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:05:58.366Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",34,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:39:05.682Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",66,,"Mark Xu","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:59:13.237Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",52,,"dregntael","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-13T08:38:49.486Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",10,,"Ethan Perez","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T06:29:07.420Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",17,,"Angela Pretorius","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:17:21.738Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",14,,"Angela Pretorius","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:17:23.799Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",20,,"SoerenMind","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:48:00.035Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",16,,"lennoxjohnsonnz","Amanda N","","","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T00:57:36.250Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",25,,"SamuelKnoche","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T08:15:36.490Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",34,,"DanielFilan","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:43:04.162Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",25,,"NunoSempere","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:16:16.663Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",1,,"shminux","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:21:21.334Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",20,,"RyanCarey","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T00:58:22.597Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",33,,"Dach","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T06:27:19.204Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",40,,"TurnTrout","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:51:38.642Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",1,,"alokja","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T22:00:20.553Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",2,,"alokja","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T21:59:57.744Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",76,,"avturchin","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:45:36.369Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",25,,"SoerenMind","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:48:57.473Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",65,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T00:37:19.204Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",1,,"Maxwell Peterson","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:34:50.269Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",2,,"Maxwell Peterson","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:34:49.692Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",3,,"Maxwell Peterson","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:34:49.049Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",1,,"alokja","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T21:57:46.178Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",40,,"frankybegs","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:00:24.761Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",38,,"Alex K. Chen","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T04:36:17.627Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",1,,"Kevin Lacker","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:17:05.690Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",50,,"meanderingmoose","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T15:37:27.033Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",20,,"teradimich","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T22:51:41.222Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",64,,"mr-hire","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T05:09:17.373Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",25,,"Jeffrey Yun","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:31:02.364Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",11,,"Pat","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T18:42:10.377Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",90,,"riceissa","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T20:35:19.216Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",20,,"Jsevillamol","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T09:43:10.967Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",14,,"Max_Daniel","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:44:53.080Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",83,,"Adele Lopez","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T03:39:52.868Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",21,,"SoerenMind","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:47:54.682Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",56,,"dregntael","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-13T08:38:45.282Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",25,,"Rana Dexsin","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:08:26.518Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",50,,"Gunnar_Zarncke","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:25:06.557Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",12,,"Max_Daniel","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:39:50.395Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",35,,"Pablo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T11:41:55.305Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",83,,"teradimich","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T09:26:24.977Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",20,,"teradimich","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T09:26:30.584Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",90,,"Robert Lynn","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T09:29:00.894Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",30,,"ozziegooen","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T07:30:52.931Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",10,,"Max_Daniel","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:36:30.968Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",60,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:31:20.313Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",58,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:31:19.126Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",61,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:31:16.692Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",62,,"jacobjacob","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:26:19.543Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",72,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:30:42.202Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",30,,"João Bosco Lucena Filho","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T21:24:31.680Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",26,,"Alexei","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T20:41:10.878Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",16,,"akaTrickster","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T17:28:15.611Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",80,,"Benjy Forstadt","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T23:01:48.380Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",20,,"Emiya","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:35:50.277Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",52,,"Hjalmar_Wijk","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T15:02:09.920Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",50,,"dregntael","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-13T08:39:04.161Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",99,,"Mason Wang","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:53:35.003Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",20,,"fiddler","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T18:16:56.593Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",10,,"newcom","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T10:49:15.314Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",5,,"newcom","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T10:49:38.044Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",28,,"peterbarnett","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:51:34.226Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",35,,"Davidmanheim","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:44:21.424Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",65,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T19:15:28.204Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",25,,"SoerenMind","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:47:39.660Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",22,,"SoerenMind","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:47:52.647Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",32,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T19:15:25.241Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",51,,"hitobashira.counter","Amanda N","","","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-01T08:33:18.994Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",14,,"Oskar Press Mathiasen","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:27:22.183Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",10,,"newcom","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T10:50:22.195Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",78,,"Adam Scholl","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:29:59.424Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",8,,"CuriousApe","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T18:53:16.065Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",11,,"Oskar Press Mathiasen","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:27:26.556Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",23,,"edoarad","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T18:26:34.665Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",13,,"edoarad","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T18:26:33.530Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",45,,"jimrandomh","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:17:13.210Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",24,,"Felipe Calero Forero","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T09:49:43.869Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",70,,"adamShimi","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:42:16.383Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",20,,"Mikhail Samin","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T12:13:54.760Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",24,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:19:57.289Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",65,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T23:32:59.579Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",66,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T18:23:27.902Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",20,,"Bogdan Ionut Cirstea","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T09:21:09.490Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",20,,"Tamay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T18:21:37.935Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",15,,"paulfchristiano","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T18:12:20.818Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",15,,"Matthew Barnett","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T18:05:02.908Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",50,,"nealeratzlaff","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T07:44:01.204Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",10,,"Morpheus","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:20:50.142Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",17,,"Morpheus","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:20:49.535Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",35,,"Amanda N","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-15T15:33:19.075Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",50,,"VermillionStuka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:50:11.193Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",35,,"Vanilla_cabs","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:34:20.669Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",68,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:42:38.163Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",85,,"Zack_M_Davis","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:45:24.588Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",8,,"digital_carver","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T11:03:44.717Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",1,,"Jonas","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T19:38:04.826Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",53,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:05:51.981Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",31,,"Self_Optimization","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:17:48.641Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",60,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T17:57:53.134Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",40,,"Jeffrey Yun","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:19:52.170Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",85,,"viluon","Amanda N","","","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:17:11.019Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",58,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T17:57:52.285Z","2020-11-20T18:27:22.921Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",86,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:15:19.892Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",25,,"Tamay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T18:21:56.119Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",92,,"Self_Optimization","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:18:08.098Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",56,,"Hjalmar_Wijk","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T15:02:20.830Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",10,,"rohinmshah","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T16:34:48.718Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",17,,"Max_Daniel","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:45:00.947Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",70,,"jimrandomh","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:17:43.675Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",2,,"Jonas","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T19:38:33.135Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",85,,"VermillionStuka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:50:38.221Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",18,,"Matthew Barnett","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T18:05:38.309Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",85,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:42:56.962Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",91,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:39:00.566Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",92,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:38:58.105Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",91,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:38:56.843Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",92,,"Adam Scholl","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:30:21.661Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",50,,"Ozyrus","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:06:09.651Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",80,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T07:15:41.737Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",91,,"Telofy","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:49:08.684Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",32,,"Amanda N","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:18:20.423Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",88,,"jimrandomh","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:18:05.332Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",82,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T00:36:35.166Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",80,,"João Bosco Lucena Filho","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T21:24:52.981Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",70,,"nealeratzlaff","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T07:44:13.416Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",64,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T17:58:39.778Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",80,,"Vanilla_cabs","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:34:41.110Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",77,,"arxhy","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T23:25:42.026Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",66,,"Gunnar_Zarncke","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:25:45.706Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",99,,"Mason Wang","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:53:36.548Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",0,,"alanwzhg","Amanda N","","","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T00:22:59.473Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",85,,"dregntael","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-13T08:39:12.938Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",85,,"Jeffrey Yun","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:20:34.859Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",66,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T17:58:38.913Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",29,,"Angela Pretorius","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:17:46.700Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",23,,"Angela Pretorius","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:17:53.137Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",20,,"Angela Pretorius","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:17:55.234Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",16,,"Angela Pretorius","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:18:01.094Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",18,,"Angela Pretorius","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:18:02.920Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",38,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:22:21.456Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",14,,"Max_Daniel","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:39:53.358Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",35,,"technicalities","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T16:27:18.486Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",60,,"SamuelKnoche","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T08:16:20.647Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",2,,"NaiveTortoise","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T15:58:13.184Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",30,,"fiddler","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T18:17:41.451Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",37,,"ozziegooen","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T07:31:16.814Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",93,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:05:48.145Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",65,,"DanielFilan","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:43:24.384Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",30,,"Rana Dexsin","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:10:55.352Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",26,,"Oskar Press Mathiasen","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:27:38.508Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",80,,"Jeffrey Yun","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:31:36.907Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",83,,"David Pape","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T14:55:19.944Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",15,,"Morpheus","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:14:08.544Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",30,,"NunoSempere","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:16:40.144Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",18,,"matthew.vandermerwe","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T18:16:53.317Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",20,,"Eli Lifland","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:09:18.871Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",11,,"Max_Daniel","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:38:00.265Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",13,,"Morpheus","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:14:10.291Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",32,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:22:04.934Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",30,,"RyanCarey","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T00:59:15.871Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",50,,"ViktorThink","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T08:05:22.932Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",37,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:21:01.798Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",81,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T18:26:08.725Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",89,,"Zack_M_Davis","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:45:49.431Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",25,,"Neel Nanda","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-10T12:37:46.253Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",70,,"TurnTrout","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:52:06.113Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",4,,"alokja","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T22:00:19.162Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",88,,"Neel Nanda","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T21:36:00.666Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",60,,"RowanE","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:40:48.695Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",15,,"Morpheus","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:14:11.269Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",15,,"Morpheus","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:16:08.742Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",10,,"Morpheus","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:14:28.002Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",70,,"Dach","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T06:26:39.512Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",30,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:19:17.023Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",5,,"alokja","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T22:00:07.257Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",80,,"Mark Xu","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:59:24.995Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",95,,"Robert Lynn","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T09:29:25.893Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",80,,"arxhy","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T23:25:38.830Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",69,,"arxhy","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T23:25:37.851Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",87,,"arxhy","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T23:25:25.875Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",73,,"arxhy","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T23:25:25.322Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",3,,"alokja","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T21:57:55.855Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",2,,"shminux","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:21:30.894Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",33,,"Lanrian","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:48:30.287Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",33,,"SoerenMind","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:49:40.596Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",75,,"mr-hire","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T05:09:33.765Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",80,,"adamShimi","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:42:40.683Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",98,,"ete","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T22:56:52.686Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",60,,"Pablo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T11:48:45.694Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",65,,"Pablo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T11:42:35.540Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",79,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T18:26:18.331Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",30,,"seed","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T17:22:54.379Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",35,,"Lanrian","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:48:28.692Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",42,,"__nobody","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T23:36:37.674Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",87,,"avturchin","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:45:45.655Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",30,,"SoerenMind","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:49:45.506Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",61,,"peterbarnett","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:51:51.787Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",76,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:21:23.244Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",15,,"Andreas S","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T23:36:58.924Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",97,,"Nick_Tarleton","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-03T05:48:31.986Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",35,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:19:57.873Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",40,,"Alex Ray","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:14:08.175Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",84,,"digital_carver","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T11:06:30.756Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",60,,"teradimich","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:02:57.437Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",70,,"digital_carver","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T11:09:34.306Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",95,,"jacobjacob","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:15:40.873Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",70,,"Perhaps","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T21:53:54.697Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",3,,"Maxwell Peterson","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:35:13.552Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",75,,"Gurkenglas","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:20:21.972Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",2,,"alokja","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T21:57:48.057Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",51,,"hitobashira.counter","Amanda N","","","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-01T08:33:35.237Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",36,,"Lanrian","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:48:26.208Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",30,,"Jsevillamol","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T09:43:18.310Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",41,,"Alexei","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:17:19.345Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",65,,"Teerth Aloke","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T13:04:31.232Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",75,,"Pialgo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T09:28:33.742Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",40,,"Felipe Calero Forero","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T09:50:02.263Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",80,,"frankybegs","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:00:35.233Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",65,,"digital_carver","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T11:17:23.444Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",61,,"Alex K. Chen","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T04:36:31.335Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",60,,"Mikhail Samin","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T12:14:13.130Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",75,,"elityre","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:44:03.296Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",31,,"SoerenMind","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:49:49.176Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",30,,"SoerenMind","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:49:50.918Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",86,,"ete","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:14:01.023Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",40,,"newcom","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T10:50:31.342Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",1,,"Kevin Lacker","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:17:16.750Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",60,,"TurnTrout","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T20:40:50.335Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",50,,"meanderingmoose","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T15:37:29.206Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",45,,"Davidmanheim","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:44:29.818Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",50,,"Yair Halberstadt","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T14:43:36.021Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",31,,"akaTrickster","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T17:28:26.135Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",78,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T18:26:16.053Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",10,,"this.is.patrick","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T13:41:30.559Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",92,,"riceissa","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T20:40:32.020Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",82,,"Rafael Harth","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T11:13:52.099Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",60,,"Bogdan Ionut Cirstea","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T09:22:28.446Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",61,,"Emiya","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:36:03.592Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",91,,"Adele Lopez","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T03:40:15.176Z","2020-11-20T18:41:04.924Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",70,,"Jsevillamol","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T09:43:37.197Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",65,,"mr-hire","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T05:09:45.093Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",60,,"mr-hire","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T05:09:46.159Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",68,,"Quinn","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:37:52.716Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",77,,"mr-hire","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T05:09:59.479Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",74,,"mr-hire","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T05:10:01.646Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",65,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T00:38:23.156Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",15,,"Morpheus","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:37:28.433Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",63,,"peterbarnett","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:52:10.457Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",60,,"Telofy","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:49:26.057Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",85,,"adamShimi","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:42:49.684Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",74,,"Teerth Aloke","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T13:04:41.616Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",90,,"Perhaps","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T21:54:04.220Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",90,,"Ethan Perez","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T06:37:16.096Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",75,,"RyanCarey","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T00:59:40.922Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",83,,"RyanCarey","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T00:59:44.966Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",80,,"SamuelKnoche","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T08:16:42.982Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",76,,"Lanrian","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:49:03.616Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",72,,"Lanrian","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:49:06.189Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",75,,"Lanrian","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:49:07.463Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",90,,"jungwon","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T23:33:30.441Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",70,,"Amanda N","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:27:13.376Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",72,,"Andreas S","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T23:39:12.807Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",80,,"Anirandis","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:03:00.962Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",75,,"Anirandis","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:03:03.826Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",80,,"VermillionStuka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:50:44.950Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",90,,"Mark Xu","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:59:32.191Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",70,,"Pablo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T11:50:47.046Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",90,,"seed","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T17:23:12.503Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",70,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:22:32.150Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",75,,"digital_carver","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T11:07:27.454Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",75,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:39:36.346Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",66,,"Gurkenglas","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:20:40.770Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",83,,"digital_carver","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T11:12:07.261Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",55,,"Pialgo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T09:28:43.662Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",44,,"SoerenMind","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:50:19.699Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",95,,"Zolmeister","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:27:45.546Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",57,,"this.is.patrick","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T13:42:29.727Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",52,,"Rafael Harth","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:00:10.877Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",90,,"Ozyrus","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:06:15.137Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",50,,"Alex Ray","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:14:28.206Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",70,,"rohinmshah","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T16:35:46.056Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",48,,"Angela Pretorius","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:17:44.812Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",75,,"__nobody","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T23:37:03.880Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",85,,"NunoSempere","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:16:46.536Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",34,,"Maxwell Peterson","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:35:28.574Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",80,,"alokja","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T22:00:58.235Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",66,,"TurnTrout","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:52:45.308Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",90,,"shminux","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:21:40.737Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",35,,"Maxwell Peterson","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:35:27.521Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",70,,"Alex K. Chen","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T04:36:34.209Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",92,,"avturchin","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:45:50.782Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",95,,"frankybegs","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:00:42.320Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",50,,"meanderingmoose","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T15:37:43.970Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",90,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:44:07.360Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",60,,"Matthew Barnett","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T22:39:06.063Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",66,,"Rana Dexsin","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:09:24.307Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",66,,"hitobashira.counter","Amanda N","","","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-01T08:33:55.549Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",77,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:06:02.935Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",95,,"lesalia","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-01T02:46:58.369Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",96,,"Jeffrey Yun","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:29:02.312Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",54,,"Oskar Press Mathiasen","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:28:03.209Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",65,,"Oskar Press Mathiasen","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:28:04.635Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",62,,"Raemon","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:16:11.910Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",92,,"Jeffrey Yun","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:28:53.265Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",99,,"Jonas","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T19:38:53.419Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",99,,"Jeffrey Yun","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:23:08.176Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",91,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:19:50.774Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",50,,"Morpheus","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T20:05:50.980Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",95,,"dregntael","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-13T08:39:23.471Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",96,,"Nick_Tarleton","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-03T05:48:38.306Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",90,,"nealeratzlaff","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T07:44:24.085Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",75,,"Vanilla_cabs","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:35:00.729Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",85,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:19:47.921Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",70,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:21:24.186Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",56,,"ViktorThink","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T08:06:05.070Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",70,,"RowanE","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:40:58.726Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",90,,"Eli Lifland","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:12:14.913Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",71,,"matthew.vandermerwe","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T18:17:16.836Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",99,,"David Pape","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T14:55:30.757Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",65,,"technicalities","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T16:27:40.654Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",85,,"Jeffrey Yun","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:32:59.903Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",65,,"Adam Scholl","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:30:32.640Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",91,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T17:58:52.307Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",89,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T17:58:53.739Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",41,,"Gunnar_Zarncke","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:28:04.060Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",80,,"Bogdan Ionut Cirstea","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T09:21:40.940Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",95,,"Mikhail Samin","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T12:14:22.082Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",98,,"Self_Optimization","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:18:13.723Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",75,,"João Bosco Lucena Filho","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T21:25:07.078Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",86,,"ozziegooen","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T07:31:39.985Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",85,,"jimrandomh","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:19:58.386Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",81,,"CuriousApe","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T18:53:32.089Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",98,,"newcom","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T10:49:56.448Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",61,,"Gunnar_Zarncke","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:26:36.769Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",90,,"supposedlyfun","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T09:42:23.019Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",90,,"fiddler","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T18:17:49.022Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",99,,"Mason Wang","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:53:39.722Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",95,,"Emiya","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:36:18.881Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",81,,"Alexei","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:17:40.966Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",67,,"Hjalmar_Wijk","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T14:56:14.135Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",99,,"Robert Lynn","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T09:29:32.020Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",66,,"Max_Daniel","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:38:18.282Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",85,,"Davidmanheim","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:44:34.316Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",74,,"Rafael Harth","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T08:31:52.235Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",96,,"akaTrickster","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T17:28:30.741Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",70,,"Morpheus","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:37:58.631Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",60,,"riceissa","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T20:45:10.536Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",85,,"riceissa","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T20:46:15.596Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",67,,"Morpheus","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:37:53.044Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",95,,"ete","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T22:57:04.482Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",60,,"Yair Halberstadt","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T14:43:43.958Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",65,,"Felipe Calero Forero","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T09:50:57.893Z","2020-11-20T18:43:08.731Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",52,,"RamblerVR","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T20:15:40.017Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",55,,"Baisius","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T20:13:19.023Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",72,,"Victor Levoso","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T17:39:46.958Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",61,,"Owain_Evans","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T20:07:10.764Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",64,,"Owain_Evans","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T20:07:05.738Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",69,,"Owain_Evans","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T20:06:55.451Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",59,,"Victor Levoso","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T17:39:45.733Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",45,,"Ben Pace","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:56:34.053Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",40,,"Ben Pace","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:56:26.853Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",45,,"Ben Pace","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:56:06.115Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",44,,"Victor Levoso","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T17:39:44.853Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",60,,"adamzerner","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:51:28.030Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",52,,"Owain_Evans","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:46:23.744Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",75,,"DanielFilan","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:44:28.467Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",50,,"Roman Kotenko","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T23:53:58.084Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",60,,"Jacobian","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T00:15:11.526Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",84,,"Yonge","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-27T16:40:00.350Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",80,,"TheMajor","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T11:26:31.636Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",50,,"Jacobian","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-27T02:55:22.435Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",70,,"Ben Pace","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-30T01:34:37.530Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",75,,"Rana Dexsin","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T00:20:20.408Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",55,,"Ben Pace","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T00:42:24.989Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",70,,"Zvi","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:18:24.399Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",69,,"dxu","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-27T05:18:19.646Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",45,,"Ben Pace","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-27T05:30:32.007Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",60,,"Turdus merula","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-30T04:54:06.056Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",62,,"Stuckwork","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:03:22.649Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",53,,"Adele Lopez","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T00:44:18.658Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",77,,"abergal","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T00:44:24.312Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",64,,"twentythree","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T01:23:45.735Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",62,,"twentythree","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T01:23:46.432Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",65,,"twentythree","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T01:23:48.523Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",78,,"flowo","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T17:22:04.887Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",69,,"twentythree","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T01:23:58.223Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",74,,"mraxilus","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-05T15:29:18.676Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",41,,"habryka","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:12:46.727Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",67,,"twentythree","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T01:23:59.351Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",55,,"billzito","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T04:55:19.708Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",66,,"twentythree","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T01:23:59.973Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",57,,"Annapurna","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T01:24:55.655Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",75,,"Daniel V","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T19:53:18.358Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",35,,"Oskar Mathiasen","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-27T11:27:34.567Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",36,,"Yonge","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-27T16:40:05.545Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",66,,"Annapurna","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T01:24:59.633Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",60,,"bsokolowsky","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T01:37:46.407Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",51,,"MichaelLowe","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T17:02:48.029Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",85,,"MisterSixfold","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T13:48:37.332Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",57,,"rockthecasbah","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T02:16:03.085Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",90,,"MisterSixfold","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T13:35:27.197Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",64,,"rockthecasbah","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T02:16:09.362Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",63,,"rockthecasbah","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T02:16:10.366Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",18,,"Matej Vrzala (M4)","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-30T12:16:55.961Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",74,,"Aduril","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-30T15:12:52.183Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",65,,"qassiov","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:37:24.945Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",66,,"Aduril","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-30T15:12:55.057Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",84,,"Yonge","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-27T16:40:30.655Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",40,,"yagudin","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-27T14:03:50.670Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",62,,"Aduril","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-30T15:12:55.455Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",69,,"Aduril","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-30T15:13:02.983Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",74,,"Aduril","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-30T15:13:08.521Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",71,,"Veedrac","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T03:24:25.927Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",70,,"Veedrac","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T03:24:30.355Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",70,,"Cory","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T13:32:54.865Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",60,,"Ben Pace","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T07:59:43.788Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",56,,"Teerth Aloke","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T08:16:28.244Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",78,,"brook","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-31T14:20:23.919Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",82,,"Yonge","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-27T16:39:25.825Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",34,,"Edouard Harris","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-05T00:23:02.843Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",71,,"kilotaras","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T09:04:58.813Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",70,,"Tristan Burgess","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-31T15:51:43.370Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",42,,"Venusian","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T12:24:28.235Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",76,,"zenAndroid","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-01T17:06:57.909Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",54,,"Harmless","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T09:39:07.458Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",45,,"algon33","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T12:37:21.794Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",67,,"Lukas_Gloor","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T09:40:19.146Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",63,,"Lukas_Gloor","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T09:40:20.694Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",99,,"Sebastian Jaszczur","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T10:34:48.962Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",55,,"Tamay","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T14:04:09.765Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",70,,"Yoav Ravid","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T07:57:17.823Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",92,,"Sebastian Jaszczur","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T10:34:51.090Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",88,,"Yonge","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-27T16:39:29.070Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",74,,"Sebastian Jaszczur","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T10:34:59.761Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",76,,"Sebastian Jaszczur","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T10:35:05.240Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",33,,"Yonge","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-27T16:39:32.406Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",75,,"Sebastian Jaszczur","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T10:35:25.066Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",52,,"Tamay","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T14:04:48.020Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",65,,"Sebastian Jaszczur","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T10:35:37.091Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",63,,"Yonge","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-27T16:39:38.601Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",80,,"Ben Pace","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-31T21:59:20.837Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",50,,"RyanCarey","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-27T23:50:48.577Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",80,,"vsm","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T11:56:08.893Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",70,,"TheMajor","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T15:57:28.041Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",66,,"Cory","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T11:57:01.712Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",73,,"nomiddlename","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-31T22:23:35.860Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",55,,"supposedlyfun","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T13:12:50.754Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",95,,"Felix Karg","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T14:15:02.814Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",79,,"ld97","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T18:37:54.112Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",74,,"Charbel-Raphaël Segerie","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-01T00:48:12.480Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",77,,"DocCoase","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-01T01:14:03.792Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",73,,"Yonge","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-27T16:39:39.538Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",79,,"DocCoase","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-01T01:14:04.371Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",58,,"PatrickDFarley","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T14:15:15.044Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",66,,"PatrickDFarley","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T14:21:03.881Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",43,,"Alexei","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T15:23:01.245Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",55,,"Zolmeister","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T17:21:14.436Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",66,,"bsokolowsky","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T17:29:27.219Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",64,,"bsokolowsky","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T17:29:37.068Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",76,,"ld97","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T18:37:57.842Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",70,,"niplav","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T18:21:43.129Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",64,,"Yonge","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-27T16:39:40.727Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",55,,"mraxilus","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-05T15:29:29.287Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",67,,"EternallyCrass","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-06T21:06:13.192Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",75,,"niplav","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T18:21:49.842Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",65,,"niplav","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T18:22:04.670Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",70,,"niplav","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T18:22:09.749Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",60,,"qassiov","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:37:11.377Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",85,,"johnlawrenceaspden","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T19:29:32.795Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",62,,"Liron","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T19:33:42.041Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",75,,"H27yvCiy","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T01:30:13.285Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",45,,"Jacobian","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T19:51:43.930Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",65,,"Arti","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T21:23:24.080Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",64,,"areiamus","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-27T22:21:57.868Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",60,,"Arti","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T21:23:29.324Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",52,,"Roman Kotenko","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T23:54:17.895Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",50,,"Roman Kotenko","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T23:54:20.015Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",67,,"Arti","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T21:23:29.337Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",65,,"Arti","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T21:23:31.245Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",90,,"EternallyCrass","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-06T21:06:05.743Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",64,,"Arti","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T21:23:31.819Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",16,,"Arti","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T21:23:33.979Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",93,,"Yonge","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-27T16:39:43.780Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",15,,"Arti","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T21:23:35.723Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",96,,"EternallyCrass","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-06T21:06:05.858Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",97,,"Arti","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T21:23:39.126Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",81,,"Arti","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T21:23:40.788Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",73,,"Yonge","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-27T16:39:46.925Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",75,,"Arti","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T21:23:41.538Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",31,,"Arti","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T21:23:42.863Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",19,,"Arti","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T21:23:46.054Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",96,,"Yonge","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-27T16:39:49.717Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",63,,"Arti","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T21:23:59.975Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",60,,"Eli Lifland","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T22:09:17.226Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",65,,"MondSemmel","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T22:11:32.146Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",66,,"MondSemmel","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T22:11:33.981Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",65,,"MondSemmel","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T22:11:34.305Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",94,,"Yonge","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-27T16:39:50.565Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",64,,"magfrump","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T23:16:39.866Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",54,,"billzito","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T04:55:28.793Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",73,,"magfrump","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T23:16:43.776Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",91,,"Yonge","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-27T16:39:51.384Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",88,,"Yonge","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-27T16:39:52.100Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",69,,"gspitzer","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-27T20:04:29.576Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",66,,"Jotto999","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T01:39:25.020Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",64,,"Jotto999","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T01:39:26.325Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",63,,"Jotto999","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T01:39:27.079Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",64,,"Jotto999","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T01:39:31.782Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",45,,"Yonge","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-27T16:39:54.376Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",55,,"Yonge","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-27T16:39:56.046Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",56,,"Jotto999","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T01:39:31.968Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",60,,"NunoSempere","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T19:00:16.454Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",72,,"Jotto999","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T01:39:33.139Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",64,,"Jotto999","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T01:39:33.485Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",62,,"Jotto999","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T01:39:36.474Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",60,,"Jotto999","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T01:39:38.096Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",56,,"Jotto999","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T01:39:43.213Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",70,,"sharps030","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T03:33:30.770Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",70,,"Amal Jacob","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T07:18:26.305Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",46,,"Bucky","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T23:57:18.355Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",40,,"Bucky","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T23:53:44.929Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",44,,"Bucky","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T23:53:44.059Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",40,,"Bucky","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T23:53:43.428Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",37,,"Bucky","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T23:53:42.765Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",68,,"The_Golden_Compass","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-29T14:19:51.903Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",49,,"jacobjacob","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T23:15:32.841Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",51,,"jacobjacob","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T23:15:28.579Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",44,,"ZachWeems","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T09:26:23.626Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",79,,"Anomander","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T22:18:16.953Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",50,,"Bucky","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T23:57:22.892Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",60,,"chronotrigger21","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T20:13:53.810Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",50,,"jonluca","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T22:19:34.797Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",60,,"Turdus merula","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T22:11:48.065Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",63,,"Lukas_Gloor","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T22:09:50.250Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",90,,"Disposable Identity","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T21:59:40.193Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",80,,"Disposable Identity","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T21:59:39.076Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",96,,"Disposable Identity","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T21:59:37.158Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",78,,"abibekar","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T21:43:18.979Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",85,,"complexmeme","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-29T16:55:12.440Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",35,,"Benjamin Rachbach","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T19:55:32.037Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",55,,"Turdus merula","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T19:41:44.735Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",50,,"Ben Pace","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T21:30:02.004Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",45,,"Ben Pace","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T21:24:31.946Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",50,,"CptDrMoreno","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T21:16:33.351Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",60,,"antilion","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-29T16:59:50.428Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",35,,"Ben Pace","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T21:13:36.001Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",60,,"Tamay","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T21:13:35.529Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",55,,"DanielFilan","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T00:03:16.407Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",85,,"Andrew_Clough","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T21:00:54.305Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",54,,"Victor Levoso","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T17:40:15.876Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",55,,"Victor Levoso","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T17:40:14.999Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",51,,"Victor Levoso","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T17:39:58.457Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",56,,"Victor Levoso","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T17:39:56.848Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",66,,"Victor Levoso","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T17:39:55.803Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",30,,"Ben Pace","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T20:21:12.314Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",47,,"Victor Levoso","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T17:39:49.201Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",40,,"Ben Pace","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T20:16:28.547Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",78,,"RamblerVR","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T20:15:49.904Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",49,,"RamblerVR","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T20:15:45.589Z","2020-12-24T19:09:50.216Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",80,,"nealeratzlaff","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T07:44:31.046Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",60,,"jacobjacob","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:17:26.911Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",80,,"Anirandis","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:03:12.302Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",85,,"ozziegooen","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T07:31:50.242Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",90,,"jimrandomh","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:20:07.603Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",31,,"elityre","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:44:37.811Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",25,,"Andreas S","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T23:39:48.472Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",75,,"VermillionStuka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:50:55.167Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",95,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:39:42.280Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",85,,"Gurkenglas","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:20:50.562Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",55,,"Pialgo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T09:28:56.636Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",90,,"Zolmeister","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:28:26.957Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",30,,"Alex Ray","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:14:49.858Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",52,,"Maxwell Peterson","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:35:44.124Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",75,,"TurnTrout","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:54:49.257Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",72,,"TurnTrout","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:54:50.889Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",45,,"Quinn","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:38:02.249Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",85,,"Maxime Riché","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T20:36:53.378Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",69,,"Maxime Riché","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T20:37:05.489Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",12,,"Morpheus","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:29:02.229Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",30,,"Jeffrey Yun","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:28:09.477Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",20,,"Jeffrey Yun","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:21:13.089Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",61,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:20:20.880Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",47,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:20:26.229Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",42,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:20:26.967Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",36,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:20:28.684Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",82,,"Maxime Riché","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T20:36:53.330Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",34,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:20:31.114Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",25,,"Jeffrey Yun","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:32:36.388Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",80,,"dregntael","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-13T08:40:17.387Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",88,,"Adam Scholl","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:31:14.439Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",80,,"Bogdan Ionut Cirstea","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T09:21:50.835Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",84,,"Mikhail Samin","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T12:14:33.553Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",80,,"Self_Optimization","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:18:31.480Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",80,,"Rafael Harth","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T11:14:04.912Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",80,,"newcom","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T10:51:32.083Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",70,,"newcom","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T10:51:19.086Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",75,,"newcom","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T10:50:50.401Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",99,,"supposedlyfun","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T09:42:39.396Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",99,,"Robert Lynn","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T09:29:46.393Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",60,,"Davidmanheim","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:44:50.641Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",95,,"Dach","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T06:39:10.240Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",97,,"Dach","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T06:38:57.731Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",95,,"Dach","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T06:38:15.745Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",40,,"Jsevillamol","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T09:44:00.951Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",97,,"Dach","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T06:28:31.842Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",35,,"Jsevillamol","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T09:44:04.873Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",60,,"adamShimi","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:43:05.796Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",40,,"RyanCarey","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T01:00:31.114Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",55,,"RyanCarey","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T01:00:03.653Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",78,,"Teerth Aloke","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T13:04:50.017Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",87,,"Teerth Aloke","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T13:05:00.289Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",80,,"Teerth Aloke","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T13:05:04.537Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",70,,"Telofy","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:50:20.253Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",10,,"Ethan Perez","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T06:38:41.468Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",35,,"peterbarnett","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:52:23.318Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",70,,"Yair Halberstadt","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T14:43:53.625Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",87,,"ete","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T22:58:09.367Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",75,,"riceissa","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T20:49:15.770Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",85,,"Mark Xu","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:59:38.547Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",85,,"akaTrickster","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T17:28:43.630Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",18,,"Max_Daniel","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:39:40.899Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",30,,"Max_Daniel","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:38:45.209Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",70,,"Alexei","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:31:59.624Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",85,,"Emiya","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:36:27.583Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",35,,"Hjalmar_Wijk","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T15:02:49.386Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",90,,"João Bosco Lucena Filho","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T21:25:16.437Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",15,,"paulfchristiano","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T18:12:39.825Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",45,,"Gunnar_Zarncke","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:28:58.823Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",83,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T17:59:10.606Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",87,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T17:59:06.314Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",83,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T17:59:06.312Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",50,,"technicalities","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T16:27:48.767Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",10,,"NaiveTortoise","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T15:58:28.568Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",10,,"rohinmshah","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T16:42:50.774Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",60,,"matthew.vandermerwe","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T18:17:28.780Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",50,,"David Pape","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T14:55:48.258Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",81,,"Jonathan Uesato","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-11T04:56:46.939Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",55,,"Eli Lifland","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:12:28.202Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",50,,"Eli Lifland","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:12:48.263Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",80,,"RowanE","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:41:09.405Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",85,,"Vanilla_cabs","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:35:28.902Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",95,,"Jonas","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T19:39:15.052Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",64,,"Oskar Press Mathiasen","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:28:34.527Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",14,,"Rana Dexsin","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:19:02.667Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",85,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:06:26.099Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",15,,"Matthew Barnett","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T22:39:19.802Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",85,,"frankybegs","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:00:54.491Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",90,,"meanderingmoose","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T15:37:55.379Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",53,,"avturchin","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:45:57.844Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",20,,"alokja","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T22:01:35.839Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",50,,"NunoSempere","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:16:55.689Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",5,,"rohinmshah","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T16:36:19.762Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",99,,"Ozyrus","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:06:21.060Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",70,,"this.is.patrick","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T13:42:45.666Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",20,,"SoerenMind","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:50:51.301Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",95,,"__nobody","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T23:37:17.951Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",78,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:39:16.746Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",77,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:39:10.034Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",76,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:38:39.393Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",77,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:38:38.491Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",40,,"digital_carver","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T11:12:59.544Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",50,,"seed","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T17:24:02.522Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",90,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:59:01.479Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",17,,"Tobias_Baumann","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T21:33:55.757Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",70,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:58:47.492Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",71,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:58:47.409Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",55,,"Pablo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T11:54:09.425Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",46,,"Lanrian","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:49:50.545Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",50,,"Lanrian","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:49:48.504Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",28,,"Felipe Calero Forero","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T09:51:15.775Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",10,,"shminux","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:21:56.982Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",85,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:44:19.424Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",67,,"SamuelKnoche","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T08:24:05.114Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",50,,"Raemon","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:16:24.132Z","2020-11-20T18:43:38.821Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",50,,"dotchart","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T22:14:46.010Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",15,,"Protagoras","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:06:09.991Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",50,,"just_browsing","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:02:30.883Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",35,,"Mr Axilus","Nathan A","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-06T12:56:29.666Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",3,,"Rafael Harth","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:35:22.110Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",92,,"MisterSixfold","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:12:54.026Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",78,,"Darmani","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T10:52:42.421Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",10,,"yagudin","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T04:07:18.333Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",17,,"Cato the Eider","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T14:49:16.129Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",54,,"jaspax","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T07:56:08.534Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",35,,"Florian H","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T08:16:14.059Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",60,,"Ozyrus","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T10:10:53.818Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",47,,"Razied","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:09:34.805Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",32,,"nomiddlename","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T03:00:47.314Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",9,,"CptDrMoreno","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T22:19:50.502Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",10,,"Zolmeister","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:52:49.167Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",96,,"Ericf","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T04:03:11.259Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",70,,"koanchuk","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T05:12:03.432Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",48,,"thjread","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T14:57:53.863Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",70,,"roryokane","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T18:51:44.793Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",75,,"lincolnquirk","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:57:17.361Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",48,,"wild-green","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T12:57:34.883Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",95,,"NaiveTortoise","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T00:07:14.778Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",92,,"NaiveTortoise","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T00:07:15.084Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",97,,"NaiveTortoise","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T00:07:16.328Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",81,,"Rafka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T12:02:19.627Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",44,,"NaiveTortoise","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T01:12:31.162Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",31,,"shminux","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:56:06.620Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",25,,"adamzerner","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:56:03.273Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",55,,"NaiveTortoise","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T00:07:17.608Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",76,,"NaiveTortoise","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T00:07:19.323Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",57,,"NaiveTortoise","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T00:07:20.353Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",86,,"NaiveTortoise","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T00:07:21.558Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",74,,"D0TheMath","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:37:00.592Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",73,,"NaiveTortoise","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T00:07:22.459Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",25,,"torekp","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T13:20:36.139Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",64,,"NaiveTortoise","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T00:07:23.147Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",54,,"NaiveTortoise","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T00:07:23.753Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",45,,"NaiveTortoise","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T00:07:26.218Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",36,,"NaiveTortoise","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T00:07:27.392Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",26,,"NaiveTortoise","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T00:07:27.714Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",64,,"Raemon","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:01:43.062Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",18,,"NaiveTortoise","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T00:07:28.751Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",8,,"NaiveTortoise","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T00:07:30.285Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",50,,"NaiveTortoise","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T00:07:40.599Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",80,,"lejuletre","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T20:40:52.669Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",9,,"arxhy","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T02:56:31.640Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",8,,"Adele Lopez","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:48:31.600Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",36,,"MikkW","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T08:08:51.945Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",15,,"steve2152","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T20:36:33.975Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",14,,"steve2152","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T20:36:32.744Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",21,,"steve2152","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T20:36:31.739Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",15,,"steve2152","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T20:36:28.124Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",80,,"dyne","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T21:49:14.407Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",75,,"dyne","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T22:05:41.171Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",65,,"G Gordon Worley III","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T19:51:02.619Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",75,,"Harmless","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T12:25:14.433Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",63,,"habryka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T19:49:55.494Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",84,,"CUSIA","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T23:02:52.230Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",65,,"CUSIA","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T23:02:55.434Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",79,,"Liam Donovan","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T00:38:53.165Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",99,,"Angela Pretorius","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T19:00:36.977Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",49,,"Measure","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T15:51:44.562Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",62,,"lalaithion","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:36:44.188Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",5,,"mingyuan","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:57:21.659Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",67,,"MSRayne","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:26:04.464Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",50,,"Indranuj","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T13:40:51.477Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",40,,"CheerfulWarrior","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:51:58.414Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",75,,"Measure","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T16:15:00.007Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",9,,"VermillionStuka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T13:25:11.184Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",75,,"wild-green","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T12:57:16.914Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",70,,"koroviev","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:38:45.972Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",60,,"niplav","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T12:14:21.440Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",57,,"wild-green","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T13:30:46.533Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",15,,"bbleeker","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:30:06.391Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",40,,"seed","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T13:37:29.234Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",50,,"yevterentiev","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:26:37.045Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",25,,"gjm","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T03:45:36.043Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",52,,"Michaël Trazzi","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T13:40:00.165Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",55,,"winwonce","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T18:18:07.827Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",39,,"Bob Jacobs","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:11:33.938Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",73,,"Bob Jacobs","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:11:41.703Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",81,,"Bob Jacobs","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:11:44.030Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",74,,"Maxwell Peterson","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:23:02.686Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",80,,"Bob Jacobs","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:11:48.517Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",72,,"Bob Jacobs","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:12:26.711Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",68,,"Bob Jacobs","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:12:40.362Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",72,,"Bob Jacobs","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:12:42.184Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",71,,"Bob Jacobs","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:13:48.526Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",75,,"Bob Jacobs","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:16:41.024Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",77,,"platers","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:16:10.098Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",30,,"Gurkenglas","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:13:52.940Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",33,,"Gurkenglas","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:13:50.642Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",73,,"Alexandr Shchelov","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T17:54:56.390Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",82,,"Yoav Ravid","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T17:00:49.307Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",8,,"VermillionStuka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T11:38:16.263Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",71,,"taygetea","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T14:01:36.856Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",65,,"Turdus merula","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:39:29.124Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",84,,"Anton Zheltoukhov","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:37:03.552Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",62,,"Anton Zheltoukhov","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:37:01.130Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",19,,"__nobody","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:32:59.635Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",20,,"__nobody","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:32:55.325Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",12,,"Noa Nabeshima","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T08:23:24.112Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",10,,"Alexei","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:16:49.035Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",55,,"wild-green","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T13:45:50.461Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",40,,"AnthonyC","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:58:16.762Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",29,,"maia","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:07:06.662Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",35,,"Kaj_Sotala","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T11:37:12.935Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",25,,"newcom","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:35:23.539Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",77,,"hitobashira.counter","Nathan A","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-01T08:34:30.964Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",50,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:53:45.432Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",51,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:53:42.317Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",48,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:53:40.106Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",6,,"Veedrac","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:18:26.849Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",15,,"Viliam","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T19:50:30.951Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",51,,"just_browsing","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:02:28.922Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",50,,"just_browsing","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:02:27.581Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",57,,"Zachary Robertson","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:55:31.061Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your visual imagination?",72,,"Zachary Robertson","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:55:28.002Z","2020-12-20T11:03:22.562Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",35,,"Mati Roy","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T22:08:58.910Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",10,,"Kevin Lacker","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:21:26.179Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",35,,"Max_Daniel","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:47:54.999Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",40,,"Gurkenglas","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:24:27.193Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",45,,"Gurkenglas","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:24:40.957Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",25,,"NunoSempere","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:20:11.204Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",40,,"Gurkenglas","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:26:54.045Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",20,,"NunoSempere","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:19:53.626Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",5,,"alokja","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T22:04:13.356Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",4,,"alokja","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T22:04:15.405Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",33,,"NunoSempere","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:19:35.469Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",45,,"this.is.patrick","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T13:44:52.629Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",60,,"SamuelKnoche","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T08:12:56.597Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",64,,"Mark Xu","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:11:44.760Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",10,,"Zolmeister","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:36:20.122Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",70,,"rohinmshah","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T16:45:27.229Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",30,,"Ozyrus","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:07:13.732Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",1,,"akaTrickster","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T17:29:44.430Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",50,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:36:44.762Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",27,,"RyanCarey","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T01:02:58.564Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",36,,"Felipe Calero Forero","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T09:55:02.768Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",40,,"adamShimi","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:44:57.694Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",20,,"Jeffrey Yun","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:33:23.531Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",15,,"Self_Optimization","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:19:55.350Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",50,,"VermillionStuka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T03:36:00.967Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",50,,"VermillionStuka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T03:36:43.848Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",45,,"adamShimi","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:45:30.362Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",25,,"Robert Lynn","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T09:33:24.620Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",5,,"Yair Halberstadt","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T14:46:28.770Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",30,,"RyanCarey","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T01:01:45.227Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",15,,"__nobody","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T23:39:36.130Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",80,,"Hjalmar_Wijk","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T14:57:25.047Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",60,,"Dach","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T06:33:38.509Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",10,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:00:24.481Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",9,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:00:23.183Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",12,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:00:22.129Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",9,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:00:21.850Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",18,,"Zack_M_Davis","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:47:33.213Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",50,,"Dach","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T06:36:26.448Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",45,,"jimrandomh","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:21:13.346Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",55,,"VermillionStuka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T03:36:25.694Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",20,,"SinguLarry","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T09:37:08.252Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",14,,"Jsevillamol","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T09:45:58.755Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",42,,"Adam Scholl","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:36:59.216Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",52,,"ete","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:02:03.043Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",55,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T00:39:10.630Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",5,,"fiddler","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T18:19:52.340Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",45,,"Bogdan Ionut Cirstea","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T09:24:12.257Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",50,,"riceissa","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T21:09:43.335Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",40,,"riceissa","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T21:09:37.446Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",40,,"Bogdan Ionut Cirstea","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T09:23:46.274Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",59,,"riceissa","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T21:07:43.827Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",33,,"peterbarnett","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:54:38.524Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",25,,"Tamay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T18:22:57.691Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",20,,"Mikhail Samin","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T12:17:03.639Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",50,,"Raemon","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:17:35.752Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",30,,"VermillionStuka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:54:18.337Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",23,,"Pablo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T11:56:08.928Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",17,,"Gunnar_Zarncke","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:30:43.172Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",25,,"Davidmanheim","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:46:24.710Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",32,,"Raemon","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:17:26.190Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",30,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:22:41.608Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",30,,"matthew.vandermerwe","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T18:19:25.439Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",33,,"matthew.vandermerwe","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T18:19:02.008Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",25,,"teradimich","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T22:54:49.606Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",35,,"technicalities","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T16:28:51.104Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",43,,"Lanrian","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:51:53.056Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",28,,"Raemon","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:19:26.799Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",40,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:44:44.520Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",29,,"jacobjacob","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:19:15.143Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",28,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:45:13.743Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",35,,"VermillionStuka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:53:09.583Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",51,,"Lanrian","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:51:56.323Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",30,,"Eli Lifland","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:14:03.839Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",23,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:42:27.738Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",20,,"RowanE","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:42:33.643Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",32,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:42:04.371Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",37,,"Andreas S","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T23:43:03.382Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",67,,"ViktorThink","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T08:08:14.268Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",35,,"nealeratzlaff","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T07:44:58.901Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",40,,"Rafael Harth","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:39:03.761Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",20,,"Vanilla_cabs","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:38:58.868Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",50,,"Pialgo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T09:31:42.319Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",25,,"Alibi","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T18:05:40.302Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",48,,"Raemon","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:17:31.374Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",33,,"seed","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T17:26:14.080Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",9,,"Oskar Press Mathiasen","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:33:52.220Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",14,,"Oskar Press Mathiasen","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:33:50.464Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",17,,"Oskar Press Mathiasen","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:33:48.435Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",40,,"Pialgo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T09:31:22.120Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",5,,"Jonas","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T19:41:38.879Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",2,,"Jonas","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T19:41:46.042Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",6,,"hitobashira.counter","Amanda N","","","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-01T08:34:21.609Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",60,,"Matthew Barnett","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T22:41:09.125Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",65,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:30:09.894Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",75,,"rohinmshah","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T16:45:36.299Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",15,,"Rana Dexsin","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:13:06.551Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",5,,"meanderingmoose","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T15:41:18.198Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",70,,"SamuelKnoche","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T00:32:32.709Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",31,,"Alexei","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:48:45.265Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",85,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:09:10.942Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",45,,"Gurkenglas","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:23:59.643Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",40,,"Alex Ray","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:17:45.095Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",11,,"digital_carver","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T11:26:11.887Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",25,,"Ethan Perez","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T06:44:57.985Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",20,,"Amanda N","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:10:54.368Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",42,,"avturchin","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:46:52.251Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",43,,"TurnTrout","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:56:53.630Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",31,,"Alex K. Chen","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T04:36:53.135Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",57,,"SoerenMind","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:56:18.422Z","2020-11-20T18:45:11.651Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",75,,"Zack_M_Davis","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:46:35.028Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",41,,"Lanrian","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:50:05.506Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",60,,"Andreas S","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T23:40:58.736Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",20,,"RyanCarey","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T01:00:48.720Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",71,,"alokja","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T22:01:50.552Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",70,,"Robert Lynn","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T09:30:17.961Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",56,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:39:51.289Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",70,,"alokja","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T22:01:51.419Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",70,,"Alexei","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:32:32.193Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",67,,"Alexei","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:32:29.828Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",59,,"alokja","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T22:01:59.775Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",60,,"alokja","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T22:02:02.443Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",35,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:40:12.685Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",55,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:39:52.958Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",18,,"Zolmeister","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:29:39.161Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",35,,"Tamay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T18:22:19.734Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",85,,"SamuelKnoche","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T08:19:00.452Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",26,,"this.is.patrick","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T13:43:23.385Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",82,,"Gunnar_Zarncke","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:29:25.958Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",27,,"Morpheus","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:53:05.321Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",35,,"NunoSempere","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:17:20.954Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",50,,"jungwon","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T23:36:03.823Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",13,,"Morpheus","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:53:09.711Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",35,,"avturchin","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:46:07.587Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",30,,"Raemon","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:16:42.783Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",30,,"technicalities","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T16:28:24.879Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",27,,"Raemon","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:16:42.271Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",35,,"Mikhail Samin","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T12:14:39.511Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",60,,"Gurkenglas","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:32:22.030Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",75,,"RowanE","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:41:23.791Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",42,,"matthew.vandermerwe","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T18:17:53.286Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",15,,"__nobody","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T23:37:45.131Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",20,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:44:30.972Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",66,,"Matthew Barnett","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T22:39:46.848Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",65,,"jungwon","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T23:35:55.840Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",15,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:44:32.724Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",20,,"Kevin Lacker","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:18:04.252Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",18,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:44:34.035Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",20,,"Alex Ray","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:14:58.907Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",77,,"seed","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T17:23:30.967Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",15,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:44:36.635Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",10,,"digital_carver","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T11:13:44.974Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",38,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:40:17.788Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",46,,"Felipe Calero Forero","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T09:51:55.036Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",40,,"Vanilla_cabs","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:35:55.407Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",55,,"jimrandomh","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:20:27.785Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",44,,"Maxwell Peterson","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:35:53.737Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",34,,"Mark Xu","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:59:43.933Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",31,,"Adele Lopez","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T04:04:43.547Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",51,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:39:56.359Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",49,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:39:55.514Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",20,,"Rana Dexsin","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:12:01.650Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",22,,"Raemon","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:16:39.995Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",15,,"Jeffrey Yun","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:47:47.455Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",41,,"peterbarnett","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:52:39.594Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",32,,"Ozyrus","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:06:30.993Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",40,,"Jeffrey Yun","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:21:34.469Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",70,,"Telofy","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:50:40.909Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",22,,"Adam Scholl","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:31:31.793Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",30,,"TurnTrout","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:54:28.154Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",45,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:20:51.803Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",53,,"TurnTrout","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:54:01.387Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",5,,"Ethan Perez","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T06:43:42.562Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",37,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:40:19.904Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",45,,"Jeffrey Yun","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:32:22.384Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",0,,"hitobashira.counter","Amanda N","","","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-01T08:34:41.712Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",65,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:40:01.538Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",13,,"jacobjacob","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:18:03.288Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",35,,"Emiya","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:37:38.215Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",35,,"Pialgo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T09:29:12.242Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",38,,"ete","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T22:58:36.566Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",70,,"Jonas","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T19:39:33.588Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",35,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:20:50.601Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",55,,"Oskar Press Mathiasen","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:28:52.992Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",53,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:39:53.878Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",75,,"frankybegs","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:01:01.993Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",30,,"Eli Lifland","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:13:27.531Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",52,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:39:54.755Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",70,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:40:00.157Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",20,,"riceissa","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T20:50:50.933Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",50,,"Self_Optimization","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:18:47.478Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",70,,"VermillionStuka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:51:09.990Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",44,,"akaTrickster","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T17:28:50.829Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",28,,"Raemon","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:16:43.402Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",60,,"Yair Halberstadt","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T14:44:02.720Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",25,,"nealeratzlaff","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T07:44:37.224Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",14,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:26:22.121Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",50,,"meanderingmoose","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T15:38:07.649Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",50,,"SoerenMind","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:51:31.731Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",51,,"Self_Optimization","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:18:46.198Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",50,,"newcom","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T10:51:42.660Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",66,,"Gurkenglas","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:21:37.105Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",50,,"Bogdan Ionut Cirstea","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T09:22:16.708Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",40,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:24:18.941Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",46,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:20:47.238Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",60,,"Anirandis","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:03:22.833Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",25,,"Hjalmar_Wijk","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T15:03:17.656Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",42,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T18:34:39.614Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",52,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:20:43.587Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",33,,"Max_Daniel","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:40:07.555Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",35,,"Teerth Aloke","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T13:05:19.485Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",61,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:20:41.405Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",25,,"adamShimi","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:43:18.166Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",90,,"Davidmanheim","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:45:00.095Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",20,,"dregntael","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-13T08:39:39.712Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",33,,"rohinmshah","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T16:42:08.376Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",33,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:06:53.250Z","2020-11-20T18:44:08.435Z","2030-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",1,,"VermillionStuka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:56:15.401Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",50,,"Kevin Lacker","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:22:43.520Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",5,,"SoerenMind","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:59:19.573Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",99,,"hitobashira.counter","Amanda N","","","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-01T08:34:54.124Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",9,,"TurnTrout","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:59:15.562Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",54,,"avturchin","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:47:27.646Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",7,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:12:20.450Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",1,,"Pialgo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T09:32:58.536Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",1,,"seed","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T17:29:32.191Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",5,,"alokja","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T22:06:41.861Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",8,,"peterbarnett","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:56:43.157Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",7,,"nealeratzlaff","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T07:46:30.156Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",10,,"Jonas","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T19:43:52.732Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",19,,"Alex K. Chen","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T04:37:20.592Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",2,,"Dach","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T06:39:41.572Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",8,,"DanielFilan","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:51:48.103Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",2,,"digital_carver","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T11:32:50.055Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",9,,"this.is.patrick","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T15:09:26.520Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",1,,"NunoSempere","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:21:42.099Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",2,,"rohinmshah","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T16:49:25.115Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",1,,"Mark Xu","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:13:02.144Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",5,,"_vk_","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T08:32:52.253Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",15,,"Gurkenglas","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:29:05.354Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",2,,"Vanilla_cabs","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:40:51.568Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",5,,"Amanda N","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:11:36.143Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",4,,"Vanilla_cabs","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:40:44.898Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",5,,"Vanilla_cabs","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:40:41.929Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",2,,"Andreas S","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T23:45:11.811Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",2,,"Mikhail Samin","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T12:19:14.319Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",10,,"nathanpmyoung","Amanda N","","","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-05T21:37:18.762Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",5,,"Pablo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:05:49.007Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",50,,"Ozyrus","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:08:05.200Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",2,,"Zolmeister","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:43:36.867Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",10,,"Max_Daniel","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:46:43.516Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",5,,"Dach","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T06:41:49.167Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",13,,"ete","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:13:28.644Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",33,,"Jake Heiser","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T00:17:23.990Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",30,,"frankybegs","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:02:04.754Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",15,,"__nobody","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T23:43:09.432Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",4,,"Eli Lifland","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:20:26.527Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",10,,"RyanCarey","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T01:05:17.994Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",6,,"Yair Halberstadt","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T14:44:46.659Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",1,,"Felipe Calero Forero","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T10:08:09.042Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",4,,"matthew.vandermerwe","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T18:20:57.948Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",5,,"Dach","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T06:39:52.926Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",4,,"Dach","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T06:39:59.671Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",3,,"Anirandis","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:57:50.746Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",20,,"fiddler","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T18:21:38.355Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",5,,"riceissa","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T21:12:10.045Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",5,,"Dach","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T06:40:04.641Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",20,,"Jonas","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T19:43:44.722Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",73,,"Rana Dexsin","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:17:23.530Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",20,,"Self_Optimization","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:22:10.217Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",27,,"Rafael Harth","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:37:15.632Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",2,,"Matthew Barnett","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T22:43:18.493Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",1,,"Bogdan Ionut Cirstea","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T09:25:10.129Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",3,,"Matthew Barnett","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T22:43:15.101Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",5,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:44:32.793Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",3,,"Adam Scholl","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:40:58.171Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",15,,"ete","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:06:22.003Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",6,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:44:21.933Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",5,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:27:23.384Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",6,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:27:22.289Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",60,,"Jake Heiser","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T00:17:29.224Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",7,,"Dach","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T06:40:20.454Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",2,,"adamShimi","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:44:09.604Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",42,,"Jake Heiser","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T00:17:23.986Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",7,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:35:24.796Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",7,,"Oskar Press Mathiasen","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:36:50.175Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",1,,"Raemon","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:20:21.413Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",5,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:44:18.276Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",21,,"Alexei","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:50:35.897Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",5,,"jacobjacob","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:20:23.302Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",7,,"Amanda N","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:11:37.121Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",10,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:35:27.299Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",12,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T00:40:05.315Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",7,,"ViktorThink","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T08:09:08.911Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",1,,"SamuelKnoche","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T00:28:10.582Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",8,,"Hjalmar_Wijk","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T15:01:02.672Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",5,,"Hjalmar_Wijk","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T15:01:04.811Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",20,,"Alex Ray","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:19:38.286Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",44,,"akaTrickster","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T17:30:47.259Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",1,,"Robert Lynn","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T09:35:02.093Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",12,,"Emiya","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:38:37.802Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",5,,"Amanda N","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:11:38.367Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",6,,"Amanda N","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:11:37.794Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",6,,"ViktorThink","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T08:09:11.760Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",21,,"Self_Optimization","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:22:08.894Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",10,,"teradimich","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:01:52.842Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",5,,"Lanrian","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:54:32.281Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",2,,"Adele Lopez","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T06:20:12.396Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",1,,"VermillionStuka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T07:01:18.814Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",2,,"VermillionStuka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:56:24.171Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",1,,"Jeffrey Yun","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:29:29.629Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",6,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:44:16.968Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",1,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:26:23.664Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",10,,"Perhaps","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T22:10:07.751Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",20,,"RowanE","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:44:46.538Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",20,,"meanderingmoose","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T15:42:43.074Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",12,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:46:06.784Z","2020-11-20T18:49:07.727Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",66,,"steve2152","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T20:37:05.377Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",15,,"nomiddlename","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T03:00:52.215Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",90,,"Ozyrus","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T10:11:01.925Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",60,,"NaiveTortoise","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T01:12:32.895Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",34,,"Veedrac","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:18:41.196Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",39,,"Veedrac","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:18:39.813Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",36,,"Veedrac","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:18:39.600Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",97,,"Darmani","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T10:52:47.400Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",25,,"Zolmeister","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:54:57.265Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",20,,"Zolmeister","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:54:46.449Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",10,,"Zolmeister","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:54:03.672Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",38,,"Veedrac","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:18:38.572Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",93,,"Rafka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T12:02:32.681Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",91,,"Adele Lopez","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:48:44.390Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",94,,"Harmless","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T12:25:24.587Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",90,,"wild-green","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T12:57:08.914Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",71,,"lalaithion","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:36:54.705Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",52,,"platers","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:16:27.869Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",25,,"Michaël Trazzi","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T13:40:04.835Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",37,,"taygetea","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T14:01:39.366Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",77,,"MisterSixfold","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:12:58.816Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",34,,"Veedrac","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:18:37.487Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",39,,"Veedrac","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:18:37.272Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",32,,"Cato the Eider","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T14:49:23.113Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",22,,"Razied","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:09:36.125Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",43,,"Veedrac","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:18:36.277Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",80,,"CptDrMoreno","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T22:19:55.755Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",50,,"dotchart","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T22:14:49.126Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",84,,"thjread","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T14:58:25.091Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",55,,"lincolnquirk","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:58:09.271Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",90,,"roryokane","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T18:51:54.312Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",18,,"Veedrac","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:17:32.975Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",20,,"adamzerner","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:56:10.979Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",21,,"shminux","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:56:10.815Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",90,,"D0TheMath","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:37:07.085Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",94,,"Raemon","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:01:49.324Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",80,,"lejuletre","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T20:41:03.286Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",85,,"ryanlazenby77@gmail.com","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T19:05:37.191Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",96,,"ryanlazenby77@gmail.com","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T19:05:38.319Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",74,,"steve2152","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T20:37:07.201Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",93,,"ryanlazenby77@gmail.com","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T19:05:39.419Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",70,,"arxhy","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T21:42:39.740Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",90,,"dyne","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T21:50:19.215Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",81,,"G Gordon Worley III","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T19:51:20.161Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",85,,"dyne","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T22:05:43.693Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",75,,"dyne","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T22:17:36.363Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",47,,"habryka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T19:50:02.073Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",35,,"Viliam","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T19:50:36.060Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",84,,"CUSIA","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T23:03:01.049Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",78,,"Liam Donovan","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T00:39:10.007Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",99,,"Angela Pretorius","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T19:00:32.753Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",20,,"mingyuan","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:58:38.772Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",81,,"Measure","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T15:51:54.454Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",20,,"CheerfulWarrior","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:52:09.235Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",91,,"MSRayne","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:26:12.508Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",84,,"Measure","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T16:15:14.103Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",30,,"koroviev","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:38:52.233Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",40,,"bbleeker","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:30:25.500Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",80,,"yevterentiev","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:27:00.091Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",85,,"winwonce","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T18:17:53.176Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",86,,"winwonce","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T18:17:55.574Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",84,,"winwonce","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T18:17:56.342Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",88,,"winwonce","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T18:17:57.100Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",85,,"winwonce","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T18:17:57.706Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",90,,"Bob Jacobs","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:13:21.492Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",89,,"Bob Jacobs","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:17:07.560Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",85,,"Gurkenglas","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:14:22.012Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",90,,"Gurkenglas","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:14:20.202Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",88,,"Yoav Ravid","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T17:00:58.287Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",40,,"Turdus merula","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:39:43.318Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",50,,"Indranuj","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T13:40:55.007Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",85,,"__nobody","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:33:07.120Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",34,,"Alexei","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:16:58.578Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",70,,"Noa Nabeshima","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T08:23:29.187Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",61,,"Noa Nabeshima","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T08:23:30.413Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",67,,"Noa Nabeshima","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T08:23:31.189Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",37,,"AnthonyC","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:58:21.746Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",33,,"hitobashira.counter","Nathan A","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-01T08:35:04.381Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",73,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:53:55.575Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",85,,"Protagoras","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:06:17.282Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",90,,"just_browsing","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:02:42.592Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",40,,"Mr Axilus","Nathan A","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-06T12:54:49.382Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",77,,"Zachary Robertson","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:55:40.346Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",60,,"newcom","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:35:39.634Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",88,,"Rafael Harth","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:35:35.318Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",90,,"VermillionStuka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T11:37:17.311Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",10,,"Kaj_Sotala","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T11:37:20.484Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",61,,"maia","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:07:12.460Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",35,,"torekp","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T13:20:41.968Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",69,,"seed","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T13:37:37.857Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",70,,"niplav","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T12:14:37.069Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",99,,"koanchuk","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T05:12:07.252Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",85,,"jaspax","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T07:56:10.840Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",50,,"yagudin","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T04:07:35.542Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",32,,"Veedrac","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:18:41.765Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",36,,"Veedrac","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:18:41.272Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",31,,"Veedrac","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:18:42.077Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",29,,"Veedrac","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:18:43.077Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",31,,"Veedrac","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:18:43.782Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",30,,"Veedrac","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:18:43.794Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",95,,"Ericf","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T04:03:15.115Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",41,,"Veedrac","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:18:48.629Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",39,,"Veedrac","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:18:48.852Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",36,,"Veedrac","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:18:49.770Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",50,,"gjm","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T03:45:45.835Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your sound imagination?",55,,"MikkW","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T08:09:14.868Z","2020-12-20T11:05:57.679Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",15,,"Mikhail Samin","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T12:19:27.119Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",20,,"Amanda N","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:11:59.943Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",40,,"Eli Lifland","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:22:03.322Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",75,,"Kevin Lacker","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:22:50.357Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",55,,"Tamay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T18:23:51.401Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",20,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:26:35.365Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",27,,"Pablo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:06:35.160Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",20,,"Andreas S","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T23:45:24.780Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",5,,"Ethan Perez","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T06:56:16.620Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",10,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:12:36.941Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",20,,"VermillionStuka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:56:43.140Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",16,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:26:42.716Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",20,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:26:45.309Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",10,,"Bogdan Ionut Cirstea","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T09:24:58.735Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",26,,"jacobjacob","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:21:40.682Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",1,,"Robert Lynn","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T09:35:09.851Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",15,,"this.is.patrick","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T15:09:45.570Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",6,,"_vk_","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T08:33:03.287Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",15,,"Hjalmar_Wijk","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T15:01:15.648Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",14,,"ete","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:07:03.967Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",18,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T00:40:12.461Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",30,,"Vanilla_cabs","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:41:05.743Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",9,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:12:35.153Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",70,,"NunoSempere","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:27:39.587Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",51,,"hitobashira.counter","Amanda N","","","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-01T08:35:20.103Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",40,,"RowanE","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:45:03.398Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",4,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:35:53.050Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",16,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:27:51.279Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",5,,"seed","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T17:29:13.660Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",16,,"VermillionStuka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:22:55.765Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",15,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:27:52.398Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",35,,"Lanrian","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:55:00.104Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",36,,"Lanrian","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:54:57.770Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",15,,"Self_Optimization","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:22:18.787Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",60,,"meanderingmoose","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T15:42:53.941Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",10,,"Perhaps","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T22:10:24.275Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",20,,"adamShimi","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:44:16.641Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",50,,"Alibi","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T18:07:35.738Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",27,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:46:13.819Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",33,,"ViktorThink","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T08:09:34.998Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",80,,"Yair Halberstadt","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T14:45:00.446Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",28,,"Felipe Calero Forero","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T10:08:53.760Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",20,,"RyanCarey","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T01:05:30.997Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",25,,"SoerenMind","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:59:46.596Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",30,,"Adam Scholl","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:41:12.060Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",14,,"Mark Xu","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:13:09.922Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",22,,"akaTrickster","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T17:30:53.812Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",10,,"VermillionStuka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T03:16:22.032Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",65,,"peterbarnett","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:56:50.256Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",29,,"Alex K. Chen","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T04:37:26.546Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",25,,"Dach","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T06:41:42.516Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",10,,"rohinmshah","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T16:49:35.286Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",15,,"rohinmshah","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T16:49:44.117Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",27,,"avturchin","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:47:40.628Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",60,,"Jeffrey Yun","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:29:45.447Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",33,,"Max_Daniel","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:47:14.350Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",55,,"DanielFilan","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:52:27.353Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",21,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:44:43.474Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",12,,"Rana Dexsin","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:17:46.416Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",30,,"Dach","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T06:41:37.997Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",20,,"Dach","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T06:41:00.878Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",15,,"SamuelKnoche","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T00:27:58.247Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",35,,"Matthew Barnett","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T22:43:36.796Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",60,,"fiddler","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T18:21:46.375Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",32,,"Alexei","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:50:50.099Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",60,,"alokja","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T22:06:51.333Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",22,,"Alexei","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:50:53.553Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",15,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:44:44.788Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",24,,"Alexei","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:50:54.377Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",1,,"Pialgo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T09:33:06.899Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",15,,"Dach","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T06:40:49.907Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",65,,"Jeffrey Yun","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:29:38.921Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",33,,"__nobody","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T23:44:07.869Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",30,,"Zolmeister","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:43:49.239Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",30,,"Alex Ray","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:19:49.568Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",30,,"matthew.vandermerwe","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T18:20:43.984Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",70,,"Ozyrus","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:08:12.255Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",15,,"Amanda N","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:11:54.377Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",20,,"riceissa","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T21:13:38.048Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",70,,"Mr Axilus","Amanda N","","","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-06T12:53:53.641Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",26,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:46:16.157Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",65,,"alokja","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T22:06:57.875Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",20,,"Jonas","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T19:44:21.184Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",25,,"Gurkenglas","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:30:00.302Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",33,,"Raemon","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:20:00.985Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",26,,"Gurkenglas","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:29:55.821Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",13,,"Rafael Harth","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:36:31.127Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",17,,"Oskar Press Mathiasen","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:37:01.266Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",24,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:46:14.925Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",18,,"Amanda N","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:11:58.184Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",20,,"TurnTrout","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:53:09.052Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",80,,"NunoSempere","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:21:55.550Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",75,,"NunoSempere","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:27:16.151Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",10,,"nealeratzlaff","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T07:46:38.457Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",5,,"digital_carver","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T11:33:40.569Z","2020-11-20T18:50:55.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",55,,"VermillionStuka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:53:12.667Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",29,,"Adam Scholl","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:38:08.679Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",60,,"jacobjacob","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:19:05.646Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",62,,"jacobjacob","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:19:25.841Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",34,,"Alexei","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:51:17.732Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",35,,"Dach","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T06:36:41.391Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",80,,"Ozyrus","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:07:21.034Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",70,,"Zolmeister","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:38:06.273Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",63,,"DanielFilan","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:46:51.543Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",50,,"this.is.patrick","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T15:06:13.804Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",20,,"Mark Xu","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:12:09.089Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",20,,"alokja","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T22:05:07.799Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",30,,"SamuelKnoche","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T08:13:26.810Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",20,,"NunoSempere","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:19:50.516Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",10,,"alokja","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T22:04:47.467Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",24,,"NunoSempere","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:20:08.070Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",25,,"NunoSempere","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:20:08.953Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",64,,"Robert Lynn","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T09:33:50.143Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",30,,"Gurkenglas","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:24:38.620Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",35,,"Gurkenglas","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:24:25.623Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",75,,"ete","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:02:26.648Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",61,,"avturchin","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:46:59.159Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",28,,"TurnTrout","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:57:17.083Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",33,,"TurnTrout","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:57:40.908Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",40,,"Gurkenglas","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:24:16.347Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",45,,"digital_carver","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T11:27:43.750Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",40,,"digital_carver","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T11:27:12.764Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",12,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:09:33.954Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",45,,"Gurkenglas","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:23:58.498Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",10,,"Kevin Lacker","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:21:48.813Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",30,,"Alex Ray","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:17:43.292Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",28,,"SoerenMind","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:57:11.619Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",20,,"meanderingmoose","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T15:41:30.264Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",60,,"Rana Dexsin","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:13:18.070Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",17,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:31:25.845Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",42,,"ete","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:02:39.847Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",19,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:31:04.764Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",25,,"Davidmanheim","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:46:31.334Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",18,,"Jonas","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T19:41:52.931Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",80,,"Self_Optimization","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:20:14.859Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",60,,"Ethan Perez","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T06:47:39.081Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",30,,"Matthew Barnett","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T22:41:30.097Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",15,,"rohinmshah","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T16:45:43.936Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",40,,"VermillionStuka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T03:36:07.924Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",15,,"Jonas","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T19:41:34.938Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",3,,"Self_Optimization","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:20:12.530Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",40,,"Pialgo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T09:31:25.699Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",46,,"Oskar Press Mathiasen","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:34:09.175Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",46,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:25:47.976Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",33,,"seed","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T17:26:15.770Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",60,,"Alibi","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T18:05:32.522Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",30,,"Pialgo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T09:31:46.293Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",65,,"nealeratzlaff","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T07:45:22.073Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",60,,"Vanilla_cabs","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:39:12.394Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",73,,"Rafael Harth","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:39:18.186Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",53,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:25:46.548Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",35,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:45:18.210Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",60,,"RowanE","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:42:22.509Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",50,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:25:45.897Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",38,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:42:30.958Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",35,,"Eli Lifland","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:15:33.376Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",72,,"Felipe Calero Forero","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T09:55:38.252Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",30,,"Lanrian","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:52:21.105Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",64,,"Lanrian","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:52:20.112Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",27,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:45:15.758Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",33,,"Rafael Harth","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T15:01:34.222Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",63,,"NaiveTortoise","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T15:59:40.795Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",17,,"technicalities","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T16:29:15.609Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",40,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:25:56.938Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",50,,"matthew.vandermerwe","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T18:19:47.152Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",90,,"SinguLarry","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T09:37:22.658Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",55,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:23:43.850Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",52,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:23:44.612Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",43,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:23:47.382Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",60,,"Pablo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T11:55:10.148Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",55,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:25:44.678Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",60,,"VermillionStuka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:26:24.972Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",60,,"Mikhail Samin","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T12:17:23.662Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",50,,"Tamay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T18:23:15.706Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",50,,"Bogdan Ionut Cirstea","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T09:23:43.878Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",50,,"VermillionStuka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:54:23.739Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",45,,"Bogdan Ionut Cirstea","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T09:24:07.920Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",15,,"fiddler","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T18:19:48.779Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",55,,"VermillionStuka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T07:00:46.257Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",67,,"Felipe Calero Forero","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T09:55:32.060Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",65,,"jimrandomh","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:21:24.218Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",12,,"Hjalmar_Wijk","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T14:58:19.608Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",30,,"__nobody","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T23:39:39.472Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",59,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:00:09.029Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",66,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:00:09.032Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",71,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:00:09.883Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",70,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:00:11.715Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",60,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:00:54.492Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",25,,"RyanCarey","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T01:02:37.106Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",20,,"RyanCarey","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T01:02:24.129Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",35,,"Yair Halberstadt","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T14:46:32.915Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",40,,"Yair Halberstadt","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T14:46:21.121Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",35,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:36:49.770Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",25,,"adamShimi","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:45:10.136Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",60,,"Jacob Pfau","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T22:49:36.908Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",28,,"RyanCarey","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T01:02:57.149Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",80,,"Self_Optimization","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:20:05.987Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",10,,"akaTrickster","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T17:29:53.403Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",37,,"Andreas S","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T23:43:05.485Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",55,,"Jsevillamol","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T09:45:40.504Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",35,,"VermillionStuka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T03:36:22.966Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",66,,"peterbarnett","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:54:54.897Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",57,,"Jsevillamol","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T09:45:42.752Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",36,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:26:02.926Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",40,,"riceissa","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T21:09:46.647Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",15,,"Max_Daniel","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:48:27.646Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",63,,"Raemon","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:19:17.965Z","2020-11-20T18:45:30.504Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",60,,"twentythree","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T01:24:50.645Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",71,,"Stuckwork","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:06:22.724Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",76,,"zenAndroid","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-01T17:07:12.639Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",80,,"DocCoase","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-01T01:14:19.925Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",70,,"DocCoase","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-01T01:13:40.143Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",71,,"DocCoase","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-01T01:13:38.148Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",79,,"DocCoase","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-01T01:13:36.575Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",61,,"DocCoase","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-01T01:13:34.820Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",31,,"Ricardo Meneghin","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-31T22:25:46.431Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",35,,"Ricardo Meneghin","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-31T22:25:43.551Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",31,,"Ricardo Meneghin","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-31T22:25:41.349Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",2,,"Ricardo Meneghin","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-31T22:25:34.815Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",65,,"Ben Pace","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-31T21:59:25.354Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",60,,"Ben Pace","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-31T21:59:05.943Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",50,,"Ben Pace","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-31T21:39:22.095Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",70,,"Tristan Burgess","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-31T16:18:52.092Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",87,,"hamnox","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-31T06:00:21.400Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",91,,"hamnox","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-31T06:00:19.344Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",86,,"hamnox","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-31T06:00:11.123Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",70,,"Ben Pace","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-30T01:34:42.112Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",66,,"antilion","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-29T17:00:04.086Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",79,,"Anomander","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T22:18:21.712Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",70,,"chronotrigger21","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T20:14:09.082Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",60,,"Benjamin Rachbach","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T19:56:09.927Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",58,,"Victor Levoso","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T17:40:42.960Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",55,,"Victor Levoso","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T17:40:42.408Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",78,,"flowo","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T17:28:20.766Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",63,,"MichaelLowe","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T17:02:57.727Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",70,,"MisterSixfold","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T13:48:26.991Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",51,,"Cory","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T13:34:28.487Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",64,,"Yoav Ravid","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T07:57:42.226Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",74,,"pseud","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T05:47:43.515Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",52,,"pseud","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T05:47:13.955Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",42,,"pseud","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T05:47:10.109Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",38,,"pseud","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T05:47:09.079Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",33,,"pseud","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T05:47:07.846Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",37,,"pseud","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T05:47:06.385Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",11,,"pseud","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T05:47:03.893Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",51,,"pseud","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T05:47:01.282Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",67,,"pseud","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T05:47:00.008Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",72,,"pseud","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T05:46:58.424Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",75,,"pseud","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T05:46:56.040Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",80,,"sharps030","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T03:40:45.890Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",95,,"H27yvCiy","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T02:02:22.408Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",67,,"RyanCarey","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-27T23:51:35.518Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",70,,"RyanCarey","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-27T23:51:26.744Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",69,,"RyanCarey","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-27T23:51:20.852Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",83,,"gspitzer","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-27T20:04:10.474Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",81,,"Yonge","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-27T17:36:29.154Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",75,,"Oskar Mathiasen","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-27T11:28:13.645Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",69,,"Daniel V","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T19:53:18.422Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",60,,"NunoSempere","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T19:00:28.982Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",75,,"Venusian","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T12:24:41.766Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",85,,"TheMajor","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T11:53:41.419Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",75,,"niplav","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T10:37:31.464Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",85,,"niplav","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T10:36:56.531Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",73,,"ZachWeems","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T09:26:40.417Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",75,,"Amal Jacob","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T07:18:40.247Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",75,,"Mark Xu","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T22:31:19.740Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",45,,"Ben Pace","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T06:51:50.227Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",50,,"Eli Lifland","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T22:19:14.885Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",55,,"Liron","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T19:34:04.080Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",82,,"johnlawrenceaspden","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T19:29:42.959Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",34,,"Alexei","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T18:23:52.873Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",48,,"Ben Pace","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T18:23:17.502Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",68,,"Zolmeister","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T17:21:57.008Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",65,,"Zolmeister","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T17:21:46.690Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",79,,"Felix Karg","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T17:15:16.333Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",67,,"PatrickDFarley","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T14:15:11.737Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",63,,"PatrickDFarley","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T14:15:10.025Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",58,,"PatrickDFarley","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T14:15:09.130Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",65,,"PatrickDFarley","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T14:15:08.193Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",55,,"PatrickDFarley","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T14:15:06.923Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",69,,"PatrickDFarley","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T14:15:06.148Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",60,,"PatrickDFarley","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T14:15:03.139Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",58,,"PatrickDFarley","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T14:15:03.129Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",39,,"PatrickDFarley","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T14:14:58.161Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",52,,"PatrickDFarley","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T14:14:55.560Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",80,,"supposedlyfun","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T13:16:41.863Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",60,,"Cory","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T11:58:05.160Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",52,,"Sebastian Jaszczur","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T10:36:01.119Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",56,,"Sebastian Jaszczur","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T10:35:59.205Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",44,,"Harmless","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T10:10:04.467Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",35,,"Teerth Aloke","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T09:14:38.356Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",44,,"Teerth Aloke","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T09:14:38.353Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",65,,"kilotaras","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T09:05:05.207Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",50,,"Ben Pace","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T04:10:10.411Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",77,,"Veedrac","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T03:23:55.494Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",70,,"Veedrac","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T03:23:02.222Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",65,,"Veedrac","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T03:22:49.106Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",45,,"Ben Pace","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T02:34:19.380Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",44,,"Ben Pace","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T02:34:16.548Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",59,,"Ben Pace","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T02:34:13.749Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",78,,"rockthecasbah","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T02:16:19.465Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",71,,"rockthecasbah","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T02:16:18.608Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",45,,"bsokolowsky","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T01:37:53.232Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",76,,"Annapurna","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T01:24:47.687Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",62,,"twentythree","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T01:24:50.240Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",67,,"Adele Lopez","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T00:45:20.723Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",55,,"abergal","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T00:44:42.487Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",45,,"Ben Pace","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T00:42:27.201Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",54,,"Rana Dexsin","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T00:34:37.640Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",70,,"Jacobian","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T00:15:30.388Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",57,,"Bucky","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T23:58:29.910Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",65,,"Bucky","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T23:57:38.910Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",76,,"Bucky","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T23:57:31.110Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",65,,"koroviev","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T23:34:33.240Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",60,,"Turdus merula","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T22:40:53.844Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",71,,"Lukas_Gloor","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T22:37:59.652Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",73,,"Lukas_Gloor","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T22:29:06.159Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",65,,"jonluca","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T22:19:41.126Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",40,,"Ben Pace","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T21:30:38.197Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",45,,"Ben Pace","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T21:30:29.813Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",50,,"Ben Pace","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T21:30:04.013Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",40,,"Ben Pace","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T21:13:39.461Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",50,,"Andrew_Clough","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T21:01:09.581Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",35,,"Ben Pace","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T20:56:43.413Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",65,,"Zvi","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T20:38:47.955Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",60,,"Zvi","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T20:38:29.397Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",40,,"adamzerner","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T20:33:57.881Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",40,,"Ben Pace","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T20:21:22.601Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",46,,"Ben Pace","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T20:17:52.868Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",80,,"Baisius","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T20:13:05.096Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",30,,"Ben Pace","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:56:55.158Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",60,,"DanielFilan","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:54:51.163Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",53,,"habryka","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:12:19.969Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",66,,"Mr Axilus","Oliver H","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-06T12:54:18.673Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",85,,"Hoagy","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-05T21:29:34.285Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",67,,"mraxilus","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-05T16:04:36.184Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",66,,"Mark Xu","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:55:54.545Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",36,,"Will K","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T07:51:47.515Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",37,,"Will K","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T07:51:48.411Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",38,,"Will K","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T07:51:49.533Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",48,,"Will K","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T05:37:11.173Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",45,,"Will K","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T07:51:43.276Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",57,,"Will K","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T07:51:41.614Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",47,,"Will K","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T07:51:40.553Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",55,,"Will K","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T07:51:38.885Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",64,,"Will K","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T07:51:35.433Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",75,,"Will K","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T07:51:32.366Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",85,,"Will K","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T07:51:30.052Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",38,,"Will K","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T07:41:51.140Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",37,,"Will K","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T07:41:50.164Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",85,,"Ricardo Meneghin","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-04T15:43:31.046Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",80,,"Roman Kotenko","Oliver H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T23:54:59.875Z","2020-12-24T19:11:34.369Z","2021-12-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",45,,"Indranuj","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T13:40:58.030Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",5,,"Viliam","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T19:50:49.608Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",16,,"Noa Nabeshima","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T08:23:47.977Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",18,,"Bob Jacobs","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:14:40.832Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",23,,"Bob Jacobs","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:14:05.786Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",23,,"winwonce","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T18:18:18.115Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",24,,"winwonce","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T18:18:16.312Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",26,,"winwonce","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T18:18:15.062Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",24,,"winwonce","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T18:18:14.312Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",5,,"Measure","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T16:19:50.798Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",11,,"Measure","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T16:15:05.206Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",15,,"Measure","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T16:15:04.582Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",30,,"Measure","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T15:52:19.439Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",78,,"Liam Donovan","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T00:39:22.403Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",36,,"CUSIA","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T23:03:01.411Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",30,,"dyne","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T22:20:29.879Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",40,,"dyne","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T21:50:42.979Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",5,,"arxhy","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T21:42:59.068Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",21,,"thjread","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T14:58:53.237Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",38,,"Cato the Eider","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T14:49:29.197Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",18,,"taygetea","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T14:01:46.493Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",10,,"Harmless","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T12:25:43.572Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",3,,"Darmani","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T10:52:53.315Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",50,,"Ozyrus","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T10:11:08.345Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",7,,"MikkW","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T08:09:28.300Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",44,,"jaspax","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T07:56:16.657Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",45,,"koanchuk","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T05:12:30.729Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",10,,"yagudin","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T04:07:55.858Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",47,,"Ericf","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T04:03:20.018Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",10,,"gjm","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T03:45:49.979Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",12,,"nomiddlename","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T03:00:57.289Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",13,,"NaiveTortoise","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T01:12:35.251Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",35,,"Zolmeister","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:55:52.072Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",32,,"Zolmeister","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:55:43.591Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",71,,"Adele Lopez","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:48:59.833Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",33,,"lalaithion","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:36:59.084Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",19,,"platers","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:16:31.733Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",75,,"MisterSixfold","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:13:04.495Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",3,,"Razied","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:09:41.459Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",78,,"CptDrMoreno","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T22:20:05.927Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",50,,"dotchart","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T22:14:54.291Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",25,,"lincolnquirk","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:58:01.174Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",33,,"lincolnquirk","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:57:59.731Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",4,,"shminux","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:56:26.716Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",70,,"adamzerner","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:56:20.687Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",9,,"D0TheMath","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:37:15.085Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",50,,"Raemon","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:01:57.480Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",60,,"lejuletre","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T20:41:11.852Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",8,,"steve2152","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T20:37:28.374Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",90,,"G Gordon Worley III","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T19:51:29.003Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",28,,"habryka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T19:50:08.918Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",54,,"Angela Pretorius","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T19:00:52.065Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",44,,"Angela Pretorius","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T19:00:44.778Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",5,,"mingyuan","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:58:26.928Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",8,,"CheerfulWarrior","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:52:23.370Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",15,,"koroviev","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:38:58.331Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",19,,"yevterentiev","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:27:07.381Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",10,,"Maxwell Peterson","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:23:36.264Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",15,,"Gurkenglas","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:14:35.329Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",88,,"Yoav Ravid","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T17:01:03.416Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",10,,"Turdus merula","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:39:56.895Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",5,,"__nobody","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:33:28.570Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",15,,"__nobody","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:33:21.288Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",34,,"Alexei","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:17:22.260Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",13,,"Alexei","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:17:10.369Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",1,,"AnthonyC","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:58:25.833Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",16,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:53:59.426Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",5,,"Protagoras","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:06:25.357Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",5,,"just_browsing","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:02:51.486Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",6,,"Zachary Robertson","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:55:46.670Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",25,,"newcom","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:35:56.952Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",5,,"Rafael Harth","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:35:51.907Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",1,,"VermillionStuka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T11:37:21.989Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",35,,"Kaj_Sotala","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T11:37:40.507Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",8,,"niplav","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T12:14:44.799Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",11,,"wild-green","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T12:57:43.919Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",10,,"torekp","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T13:20:56.023Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",2,,"VermillionStuka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T13:26:19.876Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",40,,"seed","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T13:37:49.033Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",10,,"Mr Axilus","Nathan A","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-06T12:54:31.725Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",10,,"wild-green","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T13:45:40.193Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",70,,"maia","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:07:16.198Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",10,,"MSRayne","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:26:25.618Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your taste imagination?",1,,"Veedrac","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:18:00.971Z","2020-12-20T11:07:05.391Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",3,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:54:06.327Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",41,,"Raemon","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:02:13.274Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",42,,"Rafael Harth","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:36:22.685Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",97,,"G Gordon Worley III","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T19:51:31.160Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",5,,"Viliam","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T19:51:53.831Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",49,,"dotchart","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T22:14:56.372Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",25,,"habryka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T19:50:23.634Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",2,,"Veedrac","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:17:48.511Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",5,,"newcom","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:36:09.392Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",4,,"wild-green","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T12:57:48.903Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",59,,"Angela Pretorius","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T19:00:53.813Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",45,,"Angela Pretorius","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T19:00:48.762Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",5,,"Kaj_Sotala","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T11:37:54.073Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",1,,"mingyuan","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:58:15.010Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",61,,"CheerfulWarrior","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:53:14.354Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",49,,"Cato the Eider","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T14:49:32.027Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",15,,"MikkW","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T08:10:04.254Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",5,,"Protagoras","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:06:30.750Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",10,,"koroviev","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:39:01.859Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",34,,"lincolnquirk","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:57:58.073Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",3,,"just_browsing","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:02:57.439Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",35,,"arxhy","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T21:43:14.208Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",52,,"MisterSixfold","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:13:54.599Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",13,,"Rafka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T12:03:31.717Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",40,,"arxhy","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T21:43:11.739Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",9,,"yevterentiev","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:27:35.129Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",11,,"niplav","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T12:14:54.075Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",8,,"Bob Jacobs","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:14:19.543Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",10,,"yagudin","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T04:07:59.611Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",84,,"Measure","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T16:15:12.821Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",10,,"Maxwell Peterson","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:23:39.735Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",15,,"Gurkenglas","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:14:41.899Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",4,,"shminux","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:56:38.079Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",80,,"Measure","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T16:15:08.695Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",84,,"Measure","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T16:15:07.603Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",86,,"Yoav Ravid","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T17:01:10.825Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",43,,"arxhy","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T21:43:09.843Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",5,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:54:05.201Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",33,,"Ericf","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T04:03:26.881Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",17,,"taygetea","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T14:01:46.712Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",1,,"VermillionStuka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T11:37:24.075Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",10,,"Turdus merula","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:40:04.891Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",50,,"Ozyrus","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T10:11:14.300Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",15,,"dyne","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T21:50:53.310Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",2,,"VermillionStuka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T13:26:23.295Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",14,,"dyne","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T21:50:53.034Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",37,,"Raemon","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:02:13.969Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",35,,"koanchuk","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T05:12:48.263Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",14,,"NaiveTortoise","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T01:18:39.072Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",21,,"Adele Lopez","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:49:18.587Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",20,,"adamzerner","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:56:36.872Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",1,,"Veedrac","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:17:54.685Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",15,,"__nobody","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:33:36.443Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",55,,"jaspax","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T07:56:23.963Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",9,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:54:02.893Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",10,,"Mr Axilus","Nathan A","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-06T12:55:04.397Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",83,,"Measure","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T15:52:28.205Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",25,,"Liam Donovan","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T00:39:29.175Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",1,,"D0TheMath","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:37:19.499Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",15,,"torekp","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T13:20:57.698Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",5,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:54:01.851Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",8,,"MSRayne","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:26:34.897Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",14,,"Alexei","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:17:38.744Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",54,,"CUSIA","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T23:03:09.183Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",27,,"lalaithion","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:37:01.145Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",50,,"lejuletre","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T20:41:38.445Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",29,,"Indranuj","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T13:41:02.423Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",5,,"Zolmeister","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:56:00.905Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",1,,"Darmani","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T10:53:01.995Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",27,,"seed","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T13:38:19.396Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",10,,"gjm","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T03:45:52.500Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",20,,"dyne","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T22:20:21.752Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",10,,"Harmless","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T12:26:02.577Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",5,,"Noa Nabeshima","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T08:23:50.837Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",1,,"AnthonyC","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:58:29.707Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",8,,"steve2152","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T20:37:36.293Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",21,,"thjread","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T14:59:00.132Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",4,,"Razied","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:09:45.054Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",7,,"platers","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:16:37.517Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",21,,"nomiddlename","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T03:01:02.988Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",89,,"CptDrMoreno","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T22:20:09.594Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your smell imagination?",36,,"maia","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:07:31.436Z","2020-12-20T11:07:32.328Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",29,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:00:50.527Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",33,,"seed","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T17:26:27.671Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",25,,"Andreas S","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T23:42:26.582Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",17,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:19:32.679Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",15,,"Rana Dexsin","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:14:02.065Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",10,,"rohinmshah","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T16:45:46.126Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",10,,"Alex Ray","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:17:04.241Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",15,,"VermillionStuka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T07:00:39.284Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",80,,"meanderingmoose","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T15:41:52.868Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",13,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:31:28.717Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",14,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:31:29.750Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",44,,"digital_carver","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T11:28:04.381Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",15,,"Self_Optimization","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:20:44.522Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",14,,"Robert Lynn","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T09:34:00.414Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",3,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:09:37.908Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",20,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:00:50.423Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",55,,"__nobody","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T23:39:56.185Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",35,,"Max_Daniel","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:48:37.676Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",10,,"SamuelKnoche","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T08:13:29.211Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",15,,"Dach","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T06:36:45.264Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",30,,"adamShimi","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:45:26.801Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",50,,"NunoSempere","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:20:03.126Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",33,,"NunoSempere","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:19:38.907Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",30,,"alokja","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T22:04:57.570Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",10,,"this.is.patrick","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T15:06:27.267Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",50,,"alokja","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T22:05:02.913Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",20,,"Ozyrus","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:07:26.391Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",12,,"Felipe Calero Forero","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T09:55:51.720Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",38,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:42:37.468Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",40,,"Alex K. Chen","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T04:37:08.513Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",18,,"TurnTrout","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:57:31.253Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",12,,"Hjalmar_Wijk","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T14:58:02.511Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",25,,"jimrandomh","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:21:35.309Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",7,,"Hjalmar_Wijk","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T14:58:08.358Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",20,,"VermillionStuka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:54:08.653Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",15,,"Ethan Perez","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T06:45:44.201Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",20,,"Raemon","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:19:24.893Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",19,,"jacobjacob","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:18:45.067Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",13,,"nealeratzlaff","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T07:45:29.763Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",20,,"Zolmeister","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:38:11.042Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",24,,"akaTrickster","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T17:29:57.291Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",20,,"Pialgo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T09:31:31.862Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",80,,"fiddler","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T18:19:42.944Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",25,,"VermillionStuka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:53:17.432Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",50,,"RyanCarey","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T01:02:20.130Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",10,,"Gurkenglas","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:23:56.973Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",36,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:45:21.414Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",10,,"VermillionStuka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:26:32.639Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",50,,"Tamay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T18:23:35.130Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",31,,"Alexei","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:51:14.911Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",60,,"Yair Halberstadt","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T14:46:01.006Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",8,,"SinguLarry","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T09:37:37.665Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",33,,"DanielFilan","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:47:10.661Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",15,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T00:39:31.419Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",14,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T00:39:30.566Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",33,,"matthew.vandermerwe","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T18:20:05.380Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",29,,"Adam Scholl","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:38:11.194Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",17,,"Pablo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T11:56:14.064Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",20,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:23:50.063Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",35,,"Eli Lifland","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:15:41.054Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",45,,"RyanCarey","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T01:02:26.469Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",6,,"ete","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:03:16.518Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",32,,"peterbarnett","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:55:31.781Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",20,,"RowanE","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:43:45.966Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",10,,"Kevin Lacker","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:21:49.857Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",10,,"Matthew Barnett","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T22:41:37.522Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",27,,"Alexei","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:51:11.555Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",20,,"Lanrian","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:52:38.890Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",20,,"Mikhail Samin","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T12:17:27.495Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",15,,"Alibi","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T18:05:42.793Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",27,,"Rafael Harth","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:40:03.022Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",20,,"Vanilla_cabs","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:39:24.477Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",23,,"Alexei","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:51:09.060Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",30,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:00:53.022Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",25,,"Davidmanheim","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:46:34.488Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",31,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:00:51.714Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",10,,"Bogdan Ionut Cirstea","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T09:23:31.026Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",15,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:19:34.085Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",53,,"Oskar Press Mathiasen","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:34:18.070Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",10,,"riceissa","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T21:09:50.309Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",80,,"Jonas","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T19:41:29.962Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",15,,"SoerenMind","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:57:20.127Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",20,,"Alex Ray","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:17:29.897Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",14,,"Mark Xu","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:12:11.887Z","2020-11-20T18:46:05.958Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",65,,"shminux","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:57:08.115Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",5,,"Ericf","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T04:04:05.009Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",22,,"Adele Lopez","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:50:23.676Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",55,,"maia","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:08:01.511Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",1,,"Zolmeister","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:59:09.168Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",1,,"NaiveTortoise","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T01:19:33.649Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",1,,"nomiddlename","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T03:01:38.891Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",2,,"just_browsing","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T03:06:23.175Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",65,,"VermillionStuka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T03:40:12.742Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",1,,"gjm","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T03:46:32.088Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",3,,"wild-green","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T12:58:35.564Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",10,,"Bob Jacobs","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:25:30.913Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",8,,"Bob Jacobs","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:25:24.894Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",10,,"Bob Jacobs","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:22:56.549Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",5,,"niplav","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T12:15:43.600Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",1,,"Mr Axilus","Nathan A","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-06T12:55:21.527Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",2,,"Measure","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T15:54:56.384Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",5,,"Measure","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T15:53:23.488Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",10,,"Kaj_Sotala","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T11:38:33.774Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",3,,"CUSIA","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T23:03:28.920Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",10,,"dyne","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T22:21:36.115Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",15,,"dyne","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T21:53:10.710Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",70,,"VermillionStuka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T11:37:57.139Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",15,,"arxhy","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T21:44:02.562Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",65,,"thjread","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T15:00:30.423Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",1,,"Cato the Eider","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T14:50:21.831Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",7,,"taygetea","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T14:02:16.469Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",20,,"Harmless","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T12:27:25.552Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",1,,"wild-green","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T13:45:09.218Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",1,,"Rafka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T12:05:00.582Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",2,,"newcom","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:37:41.236Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",1,,"Rafael Harth","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:37:46.165Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",5,,"Protagoras","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:07:16.171Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",1,,"Darmani","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T10:53:29.560Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",60,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:55:09.774Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",54,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:55:13.880Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",47,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:55:18.710Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",50,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:55:20.509Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",55,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:55:06.124Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",63,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:55:07.870Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",61,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:55:08.787Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",62,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:55:09.126Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",56,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:55:11.720Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",52,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:55:14.525Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",5,,"AnthonyC","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:59:32.462Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",61,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:03:55.909Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",65,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:03:58.316Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",1,,"Ozyrus","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T10:11:53.542Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",2,,"Alexei","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:19:10.665Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",17,,"__nobody","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:35:38.101Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",10,,"__nobody","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:35:44.999Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",5,,"Turdus merula","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:41:09.244Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",15,,"Noa Nabeshima","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T08:24:50.077Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",1,,"seed","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T13:39:33.250Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",8,,"MikkW","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T08:10:42.291Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",1,,"Gurkenglas","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:16:16.314Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",8,,"Maxwell Peterson","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:25:11.906Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",3,,"yevterentiev","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:28:19.450Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",1,,"bbleeker","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:30:54.409Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",1,,"Viliam","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T19:52:57.569Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",1,,"jaspax","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T07:56:49.636Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",10,,"koroviev","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:39:48.408Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",10,,"CheerfulWarrior","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:54:06.477Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",2,,"mingyuan","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:57:13.505Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",2,,"Veedrac","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:20:32.225Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",95,,"Angela Pretorius","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T19:01:46.415Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",91,,"Angela Pretorius","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T19:02:36.888Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",12,,"habryka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T19:51:04.878Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",49,,"hitobashira.counter","Nathan A","Synesthesia?","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-01T08:36:01.805Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",62,,"G Gordon Worley III","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T19:52:52.149Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",1,,"steve2152","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T20:38:41.674Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",1,,"lejuletre","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T20:42:28.696Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",7,,"Raemon","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:03:24.570Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",5,,"DanielFilan","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T07:30:26.070Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",1,,"koanchuk","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T05:13:38.274Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",1,,"adamzerner","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:58:24.383Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",16,,"lincolnquirk","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T22:00:41.770Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",1,,"Indranuj","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T13:42:03.812Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",1,,"CptDrMoreno","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T22:21:11.286Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",5,,"Razied","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:10:08.471Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",1,,"torekp","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T13:21:35.253Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",1,,"yagudin","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T04:10:16.067Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",1,,"MisterSixfold","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:15:34.545Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",2,,"platers","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:16:57.765Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",5,,"platers","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:16:55.472Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",68,,"VermillionStuka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:24:51.002Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",15,,"lalaithion","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:37:20.823Z","2020-12-20T11:09:30.565Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",81,,"Adele Lopez","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:49:50.213Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",95,,"Zolmeister","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:58:04.015Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",90,,"Zolmeister","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:58:06.728Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",72,,"NaiveTortoise","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T01:19:07.026Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",73,,"nomiddlename","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T03:01:22.933Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",80,,"just_browsing","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T03:05:48.068Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",66,,"Indranuj","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T13:41:25.076Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",98,,"Ericf","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T04:03:48.106Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",70,,"torekp","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T13:21:15.444Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",92,,"VermillionStuka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T03:39:58.059Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",89,,"gjm","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T03:46:11.881Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",91,,"gjm","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T03:46:12.893Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",90,,"gjm","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T03:46:13.433Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",75,,"hitobashira.counter","Nathan A","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-01T08:36:43.802Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",80,,"Mr Axilus","Nathan A","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-06T12:55:39.518Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",90,,"wild-green","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T12:58:13.109Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",92,,"Bob Jacobs","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:17:43.083Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",45,,"niplav","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T12:15:17.676Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",36,,"Measure","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T15:37:21.422Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",88,,"Measure","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T15:52:52.567Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",91,,"Measure","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T15:52:42.947Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",98,,"Measure","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T15:52:41.387Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",25,,"Kaj_Sotala","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T11:38:14.795Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",93,,"CUSIA","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T23:03:17.025Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",98,,"dyne","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T22:21:04.029Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",95,,"dyne","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T21:52:23.558Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",93,,"VermillionStuka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T11:37:33.562Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",80,,"arxhy","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T21:43:41.744Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",85,,"roryokane","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T18:52:36.598Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",86,,"roryokane","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T18:52:34.266Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",84,,"roryokane","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T18:52:30.449Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",90,,"thjread","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T14:59:43.682Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",29,,"Cato the Eider","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T14:49:59.117Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",62,,"taygetea","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T14:01:57.904Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",90,,"Harmless","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T12:26:31.457Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",90,,"newcom","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:36:34.762Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",88,,"Rafael Harth","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:37:10.113Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",99,,"Rafka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T12:04:09.215Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",95,,"Protagoras","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:06:54.760Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",90,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:54:33.034Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",99,,"Darmani","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T10:53:18.119Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",91,,"seed","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T13:38:41.669Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",88,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:54:31.373Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",80,,"AnthonyC","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:58:42.793Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",70,,"AnthonyC","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:58:46.495Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",33,,"Alexei","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:18:40.350Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",43,,"Alexei","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:18:44.182Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",15,,"__nobody","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:34:24.735Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",60,,"Ozyrus","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T10:11:32.864Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",90,,"Turdus merula","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:40:39.039Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",40,,"Gurkenglas","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:15:34.048Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",75,,"Viliam","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T19:52:23.255Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",77,,"Maxwell Peterson","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:24:20.092Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",99,,"maia","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:07:44.170Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",75,,"Maxwell Peterson","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:24:20.466Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",56,,"Maxwell Peterson","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:24:26.463Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",72,,"Maxwell Peterson","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:24:29.781Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",70,,"Maxwell Peterson","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:24:32.629Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",71,,"Maxwell Peterson","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:24:33.565Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",66,,"Maxwell Peterson","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:24:41.379Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",75,,"yevterentiev","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:28:03.027Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",97,,"MikkW","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T08:10:24.699Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",68,,"koroviev","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:39:22.427Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",20,,"CheerfulWarrior","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:53:47.574Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",67,,"Veedrac","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:23:04.602Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",68,,"Veedrac","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:23:00.982Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",25,,"mingyuan","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:57:39.364Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",90,,"Noa Nabeshima","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T08:24:07.738Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",99,,"Angela Pretorius","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T19:01:16.834Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",86,,"habryka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T19:50:37.223Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",99,,"jaspax","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T07:56:37.674Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",82,,"G Gordon Worley III","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T19:51:57.980Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",99,,"steve2152","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T20:38:12.069Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",99,,"lejuletre","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T20:42:07.241Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",91,,"Raemon","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:02:39.320Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",98,,"DanielFilan","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T07:27:46.158Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",65,,"shminux","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:56:52.031Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",95,,"adamzerner","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:57:16.206Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",94,,"lincolnquirk","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T22:00:27.644Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",50,,"CptDrMoreno","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T22:20:41.349Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",97,,"Razied","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:09:54.848Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",99,,"koanchuk","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T05:13:08.297Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",81,,"MisterSixfold","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:14:40.655Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",75,,"yagudin","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T04:09:08.709Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",99,,"platers","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:16:44.082Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How frequently do you think in words?",77,,"lalaithion","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:37:10.587Z","2020-12-20T11:08:21.619Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",92,,"MisterSixfold","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:14:30.800Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",86,,"habryka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T19:50:34.249Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",98,,"Veedrac","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:19:18.163Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",95,,"Bob Jacobs","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:15:26.722Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",97,,"Ericf","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T04:03:45.212Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",89,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:54:26.805Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",75,,"yevterentiev","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:27:56.477Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",93,,"wild-green","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T12:58:04.867Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",99,,"koanchuk","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T05:13:02.857Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",93,,"lalaithion","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:37:08.270Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",99,,"Angela Pretorius","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T19:01:11.874Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",4,,"mingyuan","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:57:53.977Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",99,,"MikkW","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T08:10:20.961Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",80,,"Veedrac","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:21:04.691Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",98,,"Zolmeister","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:57:24.551Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",55,,"niplav","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T12:15:08.180Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",78,,"Veedrac","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:21:20.615Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",98,,"Veedrac","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:21:38.971Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",78,,"NaiveTortoise","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T01:18:51.101Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",99,,"Darmani","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T10:53:14.986Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",95,,"Razied","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:09:52.814Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",93,,"seed","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T13:38:35.536Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",20,,"CheerfulWarrior","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:53:36.879Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",70,,"yagudin","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T04:08:50.052Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",70,,"koroviev","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:39:15.280Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",98,,"Bob Jacobs","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:15:31.382Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",92,,"Veedrac","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:19:04.048Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",98,,"DanielFilan","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T07:30:18.797Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",95,,"wild-green","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T13:54:19.009Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",16,,"Eli_","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:01:07.406Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",99,,"Noa Nabeshima","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T08:24:03.336Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",90,,"Ozyrus","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T10:11:26.025Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",99,,"dyne","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T21:51:34.322Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",99,,"VermillionStuka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T11:37:29.168Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",99,,"platers","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:16:42.587Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",98,,"VermillionStuka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T11:44:27.770Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",99,,"Protagoras","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:06:44.449Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",18,,"Eli_","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:01:04.172Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",13,,"Eli_","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:01:02.338Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",90,,"Turdus merula","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:40:27.846Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",99,,"Turdus merula","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:40:36.003Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",99,,"Rafka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T12:04:01.367Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",99,,"arxhy","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T21:43:34.864Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",90,,"thjread","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T14:59:22.760Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",95,,"lincolnquirk","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T22:00:23.807Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",99,,"Rafael Harth","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:36:56.549Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",99,,"newcom","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:36:25.604Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",15,,"Kaj_Sotala","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T11:38:10.480Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",99,,"AnthonyC","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:58:38.671Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",99,,"Adele Lopez","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:49:35.532Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",28,,"shminux","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:56:47.212Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",70,,"Gurkenglas","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:15:23.608Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",95,,"Viliam","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T19:52:11.022Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",99,,"Harmless","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T12:26:24.517Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",50,,"Cato the Eider","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T14:49:56.759Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",92,,"maia","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:07:38.679Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",99,,"maia","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:07:41.154Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",54,,"taygetea","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T14:01:55.971Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",91,,"Raemon","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:02:31.638Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",91,,"nomiddlename","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T03:01:11.477Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",95,,"just_browsing","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T03:05:41.502Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",56,,"Alexei","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:18:21.638Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",98,,"Measure","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T15:52:38.457Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",88,,"Raemon","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:02:30.698Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",87,,"Raemon","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:02:29.934Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",98,,"Maxwell Peterson","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:24:09.482Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",91,,"Raemon","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:02:28.842Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",95,,"gjm","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T03:46:06.480Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",99,,"Maxwell Peterson","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:24:10.078Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",75,,"torekp","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T13:21:09.275Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",78,,"Indranuj","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T13:41:19.016Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",98,,"adamzerner","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:57:07.158Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",15,,"__nobody","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:33:58.834Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",18,,"CptDrMoreno","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T22:20:29.424Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",94,,"jaspax","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T07:56:31.043Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",99,,"jaspax","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T07:56:32.634Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",99,,"lejuletre","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T20:42:04.409Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",99,,"steve2152","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T20:38:03.050Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",87,,"G Gordon Worley III","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T19:51:48.514Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",95,,"G Gordon Worley III","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T19:51:45.495Z","2020-12-20T11:08:05.790Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",50,,"koanchuk","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T05:12:59.350Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",35,,"CUSIA","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T23:03:13.198Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",63,,"Alexei","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:17:56.714Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",36,,"lincolnquirk","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:57:55.332Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",2,,"VermillionStuka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T13:26:30.503Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",50,,"Measure","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T15:52:34.062Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",23,,"__nobody","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:33:47.594Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",3,,"VermillionStuka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T13:26:29.577Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",20,,"Ozyrus","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T10:11:21.208Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",15,,"Turdus merula","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:40:14.911Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",72,,"Measure","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T15:58:21.763Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",76,,"Measure","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T15:58:24.028Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",82,,"Measure","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T16:15:11.430Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",50,,"Gurkenglas","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:14:51.725Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",40,,"Gurkenglas","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:15:10.764Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",85,,"Measure","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T16:15:11.686Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",35,,"Maxwell Peterson","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:23:56.027Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",43,,"Maxwell Peterson","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:24:01.761Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",22,,"nomiddlename","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T03:01:05.595Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",90,,"CptDrMoreno","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T22:20:23.274Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",86,,"MisterSixfold","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:17:26.002Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",15,,"niplav","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T12:15:00.513Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",40,,"yevterentiev","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:27:46.199Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",57,,"Razied","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:09:50.137Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",26,,"MikkW","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T08:10:17.471Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",30,,"koroviev","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:39:07.033Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",50,,"CheerfulWarrior","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:53:26.451Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",5,,"Zolmeister","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:56:31.987Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",92,,"MisterSixfold","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:14:10.502Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",12,,"lalaithion","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:37:05.885Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",11,,"mingyuan","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:58:08.520Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",24,,"Bob Jacobs","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:15:58.671Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",56,,"Angela Pretorius","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T19:01:07.845Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",39,,"Noa Nabeshima","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T08:23:59.871Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",24,,"wild-green","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T12:57:56.987Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",37,,"habryka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T19:50:29.732Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",71,,"Adele Lopez","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:49:28.739Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",25,,"wild-green","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T13:45:31.949Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",98,,"G Gordon Worley III","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T19:51:37.746Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",8,,"Veedrac","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:18:21.847Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",28,,"NaiveTortoise","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T01:18:41.629Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",12,,"steve2152","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T20:37:55.938Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",60,,"lejuletre","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T20:42:00.388Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",25,,"torekp","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T13:21:04.568Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",15,,"jaspax","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T07:56:28.632Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",26,,"Indranuj","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T13:41:09.509Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",64,,"Ericf","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T04:03:41.310Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",38,,"Raemon","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:02:27.222Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",39,,"taygetea","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T14:01:50.857Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",55,,"maia","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:07:37.333Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",31,,"Cato the Eider","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T14:49:36.347Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",15,,"newcom","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:36:19.521Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",5,,"Viliam","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T19:51:58.496Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",54,,"Harmless","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T12:26:20.537Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",15,,"thjread","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T14:59:11.290Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",46,,"Rafael Harth","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:36:49.043Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",15,,"gjm","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T03:45:58.332Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",34,,"nomiddlename","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T03:12:56.212Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",14,,"arxhy","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T21:43:30.313Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",15,,"Protagoras","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:06:36.715Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",1,,"VermillionStuka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T11:37:25.762Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",71,,"Rafka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T12:03:54.898Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",45,,"dyne","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T21:51:16.544Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",31,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:54:16.226Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",37,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:54:18.875Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",41,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:54:18.862Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",43,,"seed","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T13:38:30.947Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",23,,"platers","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:16:40.066Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",38,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:54:18.870Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",35,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:54:19.624Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",25,,"Kaj_Sotala","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T11:38:05.203Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",3,,"just_browsing","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T03:05:26.141Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",2,,"shminux","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:56:42.903Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",30,,"yagudin","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T04:08:21.945Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",1,,"AnthonyC","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:58:35.081Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",20,,"adamzerner","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:56:57.292Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",25,,"dyne","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T22:20:46.515Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",44,,"Darmani","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T10:53:11.690Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",35,,"dyne","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T22:20:55.163Z","2020-12-20T11:07:46.903Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",24,,"lalaithion","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:37:13.338Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",61,,"G Gordon Worley III","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T19:52:03.193Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",48,,"G Gordon Worley III","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T19:52:06.374Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",20,,"Veedrac","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:19:47.788Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",50,,"wild-green","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T12:58:24.801Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",50,,"yagudin","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T04:09:29.768Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",50,,"steve2152","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T20:38:25.564Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",74,,"MisterSixfold","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:15:00.845Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",25,,"adamzerner","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:57:24.440Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",33,,"CptDrMoreno","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T22:20:53.426Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",75,,"lejuletre","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T20:42:14.713Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",90,,"maia","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:07:49.390Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",73,,"seed","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T13:38:52.926Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",85,,"Ericf","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T04:03:52.071Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",95,,"koanchuk","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T05:13:16.240Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",75,,"gjm","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T03:46:25.978Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",40,,"AnthonyC","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:58:54.024Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",25,,"Viliam","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T19:52:35.259Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",24,,"Viliam","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T19:52:32.081Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",60,,"MisterSixfold","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:17:05.797Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",59,,"Raemon","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:02:53.665Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",83,,"taygetea","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T14:01:59.966Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",20,,"Gurkenglas","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:15:46.213Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",42,,"__nobody","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:34:52.671Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",50,,"Harmless","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T12:26:39.823Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",62,,"Raemon","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:02:55.945Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",69,,"__nobody","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:34:44.046Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",64,,"Raemon","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:02:56.618Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",18,,"Adele Lopez","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:49:56.665Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",1,,"Cato the Eider","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T14:50:04.787Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",26,,"lincolnquirk","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T22:00:32.064Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",61,,"Raemon","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:02:58.543Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",70,,"newcom","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:36:43.733Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",46,,"platers","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:16:47.540Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",37,,"Rafael Harth","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:37:38.819Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",81,,"nomiddlename","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T03:13:06.436Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",79,,"nomiddlename","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T03:13:04.738Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",60,,"Rafka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T12:04:26.224Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",74,,"thjread","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T14:59:48.395Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",47,,"NaiveTortoise","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T00:27:23.457Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",60,,"Turdus merula","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:40:45.153Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",81,,"nomiddlename","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T03:01:28.355Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",50,,"Ozyrus","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T10:11:41.204Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",65,,"Zolmeister","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:58:34.110Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",85,,"Protagoras","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:07:03.249Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",50,,"arxhy","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T21:43:45.489Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",50,,"VermillionStuka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T11:37:39.280Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",26,,"shminux","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:56:54.501Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",50,,"just_browsing","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T03:06:00.110Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",82,,"Razied","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:10:01.301Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",75,,"koroviev","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:39:28.586Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",45,,"VermillionStuka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T12:40:08.243Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",25,,"Veedrac","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:19:44.710Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",18,,"Noa Nabeshima","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T08:24:18.792Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",70,,"Indranuj","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T13:41:32.339Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",41,,"niplav","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T12:15:24.329Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",25,,"bbleeker","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:31:22.375Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",95,,"mingyuan","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:57:32.299Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",65,,"torekp","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T13:21:22.377Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",61,,"Alexei","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:18:51.170Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",46,,"CUSIA","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T23:03:20.285Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",18,,"Bob Jacobs","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:18:13.834Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",19,,"Bob Jacobs","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:18:45.156Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",29,,"jaspax","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T07:56:41.772Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",65,,"dyne","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T21:52:34.017Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",74,,"MikkW","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T08:10:31.056Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",80,,"Darmani","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T10:53:21.896Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",62,,"Angela Pretorius","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T19:01:27.136Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",43,,"yevterentiev","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:28:05.126Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",75,,"Zolmeister","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:58:26.843Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",65,,"Maxwell Peterson","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:24:58.977Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",62,,"habryka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T19:50:39.823Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",21,,"shminux","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:56:56.233Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",20,,"Kaj_Sotala","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T11:38:19.992Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",54,,"Measure","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T15:52:57.819Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",56,,"Maxwell Peterson","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:24:54.837Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How good is your memory?",66,,"Maxwell Peterson","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:24:50.342Z","2020-12-20T11:08:46.454Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",11,,"Bob Jacobs","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:19:29.553Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",53,,"G Gordon Worley III","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T19:52:46.268Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",63,,"Veedrac","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:20:14.028Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",75,,"yagudin","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T04:09:44.440Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",31,,"Angela Pretorius","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T20:05:25.693Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",28,,"Angela Pretorius","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T20:05:31.335Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",23,,"__nobody","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:35:22.871Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",70,,"CptDrMoreno","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T22:21:05.415Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",23,,"steve2152","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T20:38:37.935Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",73,,"wild-green","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T12:58:31.784Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",76,,"MisterSixfold","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:15:25.296Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",30,,"lejuletre","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T20:42:20.793Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",40,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:54:49.437Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",31,,"seed","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T13:39:02.593Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",5,,"__nobody","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:35:04.938Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",13,,"nomiddlename","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T03:01:33.985Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",36,,"lalaithion","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:37:18.114Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",45,,"Viliam","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-26T19:52:52.945Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",30,,"AnthonyC","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:59:21.724Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",66,,"Gurkenglas","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:16:09.462Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",50,,"Zolmeister","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:59:02.534Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",35,,"AnthonyC","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:59:26.184Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",70,,"Gurkenglas","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:16:00.833Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",74,,"taygetea","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T14:02:04.442Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",36,,"MikkW","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T08:10:34.802Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",20,,"Harmless","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T12:27:06.941Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",48,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:54:44.159Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",35,,"lincolnquirk","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T22:00:37.906Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",29,,"Cato the Eider","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T14:50:17.120Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",42,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:54:46.834Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",55,,"koanchuk","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T05:13:33.356Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",43,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:54:47.443Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",32,,"Raemon","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:03:12.006Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",85,,"Rafka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T12:04:51.421Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",41,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:54:50.677Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",70,,"newcom","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:36:52.446Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",25,,"CUSIA","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T23:03:24.890Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",46,,"Rafael Harth","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:37:31.473Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",55,,"Turdus merula","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:41:00.464Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",60,,"thjread","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T15:00:01.061Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",60,,"Ozyrus","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T10:11:48.127Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",64,,"shminux","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:57:04.249Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",83,,"Measure","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T15:53:14.449Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",25,,"Protagoras","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:07:12.289Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",10,,"just_browsing","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T03:06:13.613Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",25,,"arxhy","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T21:43:56.333Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",73,,"Alexei","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T16:19:02.805Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",10,,"Kaj_Sotala","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T11:38:26.593Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",60,,"VermillionStuka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T11:37:47.445Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",55,,"dyne","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T21:53:02.047Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",76,,"Measure","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T15:53:12.463Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",66,,"niplav","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T12:15:32.740Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",31,,"koroviev","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:39:38.401Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",82,,"Razied","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:10:03.812Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",32,,"Noa Nabeshima","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-25T08:24:30.193Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",69,,"Darmani","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T10:53:26.666Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",25,,"CheerfulWarrior","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:53:59.372Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",20,,"NaiveTortoise","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T01:19:30.566Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",90,,"mingyuan","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:57:08.137Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",47,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:54:44.568Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",25,,"bbleeker","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:31:18.068Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",56,,"Indranuj","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T13:41:42.878Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",43,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:54:47.458Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",25,,"torekp","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T13:21:33.887Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",56,,"maia","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T14:07:57.231Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",39,,"jaspax","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T07:56:46.283Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",46,,"Adele Lopez","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T23:50:14.506Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",36,,"Angela Pretorius","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T19:01:39.880Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",51,,"yevterentiev","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:28:16.434Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",84,,"Ericf","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T04:03:57.582Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",67,,"Maxwell Peterson","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T18:25:07.850Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",63,,"habryka","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T19:50:45.479Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",20,,"adamzerner","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T21:58:19.938Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",30,,"dyne","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T22:21:24.302Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",36,,"Benjy Forstadt","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:54:42.536Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",12,,"Bob Jacobs","Nathan A",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T19:19:09.660Z","2020-12-20T11:09:14.087Z","2099-12-19T14:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",25,,"Zolmeister","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:41:18.386Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",45,,"Gurkenglas","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:26:56.439Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",40,,"Gurkenglas","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:26:36.796Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",43,,"Felipe Calero Forero","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T10:04:24.952Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",30,,"Pialgo","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T09:32:06.244Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",25,,"Pialgo","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T09:32:09.927Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",50,,"Andreas S","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T23:44:03.049Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",50,,"Mark Xu","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:12:22.770Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",32,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:43:04.625Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",65,,"jimrandomh","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T03:22:04.882Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",60,,"VermillionStuka","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:58:38.961Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",50,,"Raemon","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:19:37.079Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",40,,"nealeratzlaff","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T07:45:44.668Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",20,,"SamuelKnoche","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T08:28:36.516Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",41,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:45:37.225Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",42,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:45:36.145Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",46,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:45:35.317Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",50,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T00:39:45.034Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",60,,"jungwon","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T23:36:33.375Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",75,,"__nobody","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T23:40:16.610Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",20,,"rohinmshah","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T16:48:43.014Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",10,,"rohinmshah","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T16:48:22.076Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",72,,"seed","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T17:27:22.078Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",12,,"digital_carver","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T11:30:43.826Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",50,,"Ozyrus","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:07:34.109Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",50,,"Self_Optimization","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:21:37.377Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",53,,"Self_Optimization","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:21:36.753Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",70,,"alokja","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T22:05:53.611Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",40,,"this.is.patrick","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T15:06:58.437Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",60,,"NunoSempere","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:20:35.316Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",50,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:11:43.041Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",20,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:11:28.111Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",20,,"meanderingmoose","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T15:42:08.852Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",68,,"Rana Dexsin","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:20:02.331Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",10,,"Jonas","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T19:42:49.917Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",20,,"Jonas","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T19:42:44.127Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",40,,"meanderingmoose","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T15:42:17.299Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",26,,"Oskar Press Mathiasen","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:35:24.021Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",50,,"Vanilla_cabs","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:39:37.982Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",70,,"Eli Lifland","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:18:55.143Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",71,,"Eli Lifland","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:18:54.532Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",50,,"RowanE","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:43:57.367Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",20,,"Ethan Perez","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T06:55:36.599Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",50,,"Matthew Barnett","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T22:41:47.738Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",50,,"fiddler","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T18:21:27.010Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",5,,"Ethan Perez","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T06:52:12.547Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",50,,"riceissa","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T21:34:54.011Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",20,,"fiddler","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T18:20:04.333Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",15,,"Hjalmar_Wijk","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T14:58:42.943Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",65,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:25:49.211Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",50,,"Yair Halberstadt","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T14:45:55.247Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",89,,"akaTrickster","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T17:30:05.450Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",70,,"Self_Optimization","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:20:52.480Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",71,,"Self_Optimization","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:20:51.597Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",35,,"Max_Daniel","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:49:18.378Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",17,,"Alexei","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:49:23.033Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",13,,"Alexei","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:49:29.643Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",35,,"ete","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:04:18.981Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",49,,"ete","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:05:42.749Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",64,,"peterbarnett","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:55:52.478Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",69,,"Self_Optimization","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:20:50.049Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",30,,"RyanCarey","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T01:03:39.631Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",40,,"Jsevillamol","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T09:47:08.789Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",55,,"Jsevillamol","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T09:46:50.818Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",22,,"Adam Scholl","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:39:03.953Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",20,,"Dach","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T06:37:18.614Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",26,,"Dach","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T06:44:23.979Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",25,,"Dach","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T06:44:24.873Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",36,,"Dach","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T06:44:34.687Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",40,,"Dach","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T06:44:36.148Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",74,,"Dach","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T06:44:40.768Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",64,,"Dach","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T06:44:41.113Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",52,,"Dach","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T06:44:41.418Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",34,,"Dach","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T06:44:44.285Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",35,,"Dach","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T06:44:45.341Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",33,,"Dach","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T06:44:49.573Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",10,,"Robert Lynn","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T09:34:19.396Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",20,,"Bogdan Ionut Cirstea","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T09:24:19.963Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",40,,"adamShimi","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:45:51.181Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",45,,"Mikhail Samin","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T12:17:55.679Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",75,,"Gunnar_Zarncke","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:31:41.422Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",14,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:24:44.657Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",50,,"Kevin Lacker","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:21:57.385Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",57,,"TurnTrout","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:58:25.543Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",80,,"Alex Ray","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:18:10.701Z","2020-11-20T21:31:40.282Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",34,,"Baeboo","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-09T08:34:49.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",29,,"Baeboo","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-17T00:10:20.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",23,,"Baeboo","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-03T08:27:16.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",30,,"BaesTheorem","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-19T14:12:57.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",30,,"PlacidPlatypus","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-10T21:04:44.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",38,,"Baeboo","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T03:08:03.888Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",40,,"AlexLamson","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-16T23:36:46.096Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",35,,"Baeboo","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-10T00:07:41.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",60,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-25T12:21:27.286Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",35,,"Baeboo","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T04:10:03.442Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",60,,"qznc","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-15T18:20:52.523Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",47,,"aarongertler","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-06T04:15:01.357Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",40,,"jazzsolo","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-03T20:48:24.043Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",27,,"Patrick Brinich-Langlois","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-15T05:25:53.853Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",95,,"jamesrom","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-05T13:52:16.337Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",35,,"JTPeterson","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-06-08T17:28:34.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",40,,"MultiplyByZer0","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T04:59:54.549Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",75,,"ejlflop","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-06-08T03:08:30.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",60,,"jazzsolo","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-13T12:22:39.646Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",40,,"technicalities","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-31T16:09:36.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",35,,"gwern","regex","incumbents have ~55% re-election odds, so survival+running+election ought to definitely be <55%",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-31T01:14:23.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",37,,"Baeboo","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-02T04:43:18.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",55,,"Jach","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-17T05:11:14.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",55,,"futurulus","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-15T08:34:11.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",35,,"Flenser","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-08T23:59:19.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",33,,"Baeboo","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-15T23:28:05.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",33,,"sty.silver","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-25T20:18:39.325Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",20,,"Medea","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-15T16:06:01.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",32,,"Baeboo","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-03T03:57:34.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",33,,"Baeboo","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-29T06:26:44.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",26,,"Baeboo","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-03T08:38:11.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",50,,"MultiplyByZer0","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-10T23:04:20.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",30,,"117brian","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-20T16:13:39.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",35,,"danielfilan","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-21T01:48:28.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",7,,"bobpage","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-07T06:55:18.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",42,,"splorridge","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-06T09:39:04.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",40,,"ioannes","regex","lol at the >90% predictions",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-05T23:18:07.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",40,,"HonoreDB","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-01T16:02:39.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",40,,"TracyPoff","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-04T19:49:29.019Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",50,,"grin","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-04T00:30:30.428Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",100,,"deleteyourbrain","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T01:25:53.375Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",20,,"rmeador","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-31T18:27:09.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",60,,"atomicspaceman","regex","He will be benefiting from the positive economic trends coming into his first term, and American presidents very frequently go on to a second term.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-30T03:28:44.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",35,,"bomeor","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-07T23:22:05.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",46,,"kmcharliecat","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-07T03:53:44.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",80,,"NickN","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-06T15:53:10.158Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",90,,"regex","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",45,,"WilliamKiely","regex","+/-5% https://predictionbook.com/predictions/192652",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-13T18:25:38.547Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",45,,"peter_hurford","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T21:10:11.482Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",80,,"NickN","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-22T14:00:12.530Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",99,,"najdorf","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-04T12:47:04.277Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",25,,"regex","regex","The pandemic totally crushed his chances. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-19T19:57:18.332Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",45,,"Medea","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-11T08:43:33.811Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",32,,"davatk","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-17T18:23:47.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",49,,"atomicspaceman","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-01-05T03:56:15.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",31,,"Baeboo","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-14T05:45:54.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",36,,"Baeboo","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-16T05:42:15.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",15,,"PlacidPlatypus","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-20T16:45:29.387Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",38,,"JoshuaZ","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-02T19:38:53.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",65,,"Reactionaryhistorian","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-12T22:02:47.332Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",60,,"bcongdon","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T04:42:11.596Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",51,,"themusicgod1","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-30T03:39:32.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",45,,"penten","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-30T08:37:43.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",65,,"playablecharacter","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-30T17:26:51.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",40,,"aseyfarth","regex","Presidents normally reelected, but reasonable chance of serious misstep (impeachment or at least mistake so he's unelectable) or dying, plus we know dem's had more votes in 2016 (he was unlikely to win first time)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-30T17:46:44.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",40,,"TheCometKing","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-31T04:32:48.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",70,,"playablecharacter","regex","Trump's chances have gotten better",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-02T08:10:13.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",96,,"tsssssskl","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-02T19:22:09.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",40,,"Michael Dickens","regex","Trump already has fairly low approval ratings and he did lose the popular vote, which suggests he's somewhat less likely than the base rate to win. Of 5 presidents who lost the popular vote, only 1 (Bush) got re-elected.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-05T06:36:13.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",65,,"pranomostro","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-19T09:44:34.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",70,,"m1el","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-30T10:42:21.365Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",30,,"kiimberlie","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-16T19:46:41.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",70,,"pent","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-21T19:44:08.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will win a second term",40,,"two2thehead","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-06T04:39:48.000Z","2017-01-30T02:17:37.000Z","2020-11-08T23:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",15,,"Robert Lynn","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T09:34:39.144Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",15,,"Pialgo","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T09:32:29.879Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",37,,"Felipe Calero Forero","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T10:05:09.814Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",60,,"seed","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T17:27:43.665Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",13,,"rohinmshah","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T16:49:02.069Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",20,,"adamShimi","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:46:03.204Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",15,,"Mikhail Samin","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T12:18:12.303Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",61,,"Gunnar_Zarncke","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:32:25.638Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",65,,"Gunnar_Zarncke","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:32:23.272Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",80,,"Alex Ray","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:18:30.067Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",13,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:25:33.652Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",6,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:25:32.954Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",12,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:25:34.905Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",15,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:24:53.273Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",13,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:24:52.303Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",37,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:24:50.380Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",30,,"Gurkenglas","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:27:39.249Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",10,,"Self_Optimization","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:21:04.729Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",5,,"Hjalmar_Wijk","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T14:59:05.688Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",8,,"Hjalmar_Wijk","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T14:59:11.847Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",7,,"Hjalmar_Wijk","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T15:00:44.736Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",30,,"riceissa","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T21:36:39.246Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",40,,"riceissa","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T21:36:05.529Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",10,,"Adam Scholl","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:40:34.837Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",60,,"Jsevillamol","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T09:47:23.552Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",35,,"Kevin Lacker","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:22:11.582Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",40,,"fiddler","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T18:20:17.451Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",25,,"TurnTrout","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T16:34:45.491Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",15,,"Adam Scholl","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:39:59.058Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",10,,"Adam Scholl","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:39:55.182Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",10,,"__nobody","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T23:42:48.924Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",45,,"Matthew Barnett","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T22:42:51.103Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",10,,"RowanE","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:44:19.371Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",20,,"Eli Lifland","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:19:21.825Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",5,,"meanderingmoose","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T15:42:23.869Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",16,,"Oskar Press Mathiasen","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:36:23.750Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",20,,"Jonas","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T19:43:26.907Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",34,,"Rana Dexsin","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:16:03.197Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",35,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:12:01.042Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",10,,"NunoSempere","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:24:07.786Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",15,,"NunoSempere","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:24:06.581Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",34,,"this.is.patrick","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T15:07:35.439Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",10,,"alokja","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T22:06:04.673Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",27,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:43:20.605Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",25,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:43:18.871Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",29,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:43:15.413Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",34,,"TurnTrout","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:58:36.731Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",10,,"Zolmeister","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:42:19.798Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",30,,"Andreas S","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T23:44:46.619Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",50,,"Ozyrus","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:07:44.497Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",33,,"Mark Xu","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:12:39.592Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",10,,"digital_carver","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T11:31:16.137Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",10,,"Bogdan Ionut Cirstea","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T09:27:18.886Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",37,,"Felipe Calero Forero","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T10:05:54.841Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",6,,"Felipe Calero Forero","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T10:05:30.549Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",20,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:45:46.015Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",17,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:45:56.216Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",18,,"nealeratzlaff","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T07:45:55.528Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",16,,"jacobjacob","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:20:11.239Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",15,,"SamuelKnoche","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T08:30:42.184Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",45,,"jimrandomh","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T03:22:21.714Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",13,,"peterbarnett","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:56:05.726Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",75,,"Ethan Perez","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T06:51:52.261Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",39,,"ete","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:05:56.653Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",37,,"ete","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:05:51.793Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",23,,"ete","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:05:01.496Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",14,,"akaTrickster","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T17:30:20.409Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",5,,"Alexei","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:50:16.974Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",10,,"Alexei","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:49:58.567Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",25,,"Max_Daniel","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:49:39.418Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",40,,"Yair Halberstadt","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T14:45:49.090Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",15,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:27:03.973Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",16,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:27:02.790Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",15,,"Self_Optimization","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:21:03.109Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",13,,"RyanCarey","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T01:04:30.883Z","2020-11-20T21:31:59.295Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",10,,"Robert Lynn","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T09:34:50.480Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",33,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:32:47.202Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",81,,"alokja","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T22:06:21.840Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",80,,"alokja","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T22:06:29.963Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",40,,"Self_Optimization","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:22:01.370Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",65,,"__nobody","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T23:42:44.082Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",12,,"seed","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T17:28:25.192Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",7,,"rohinmshah","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T16:49:05.687Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",15,,"Gurkenglas","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:28:12.190Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",20,,"Mikhail Samin","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T12:18:58.367Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",84,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:25:20.603Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",20,,"Zolmeister","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:42:49.482Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",22,,"RyanCarey","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T01:04:41.462Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",48,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:26:50.610Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",55,,"Self_Optimization","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:21:13.466Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",5,,"Hjalmar_Wijk","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T15:00:46.260Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",20,,"riceissa","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T21:36:35.002Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",12,,"Adam Scholl","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:40:36.393Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",39,,"Jsevillamol","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T09:48:03.553Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",80,,"Alex Ray","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:18:47.285Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",5,,"Ethan Perez","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T06:53:53.443Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",10,,"fiddler","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T18:21:29.885Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",22,,"TurnTrout","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T16:34:51.705Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",25,,"TurnTrout","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T16:34:46.776Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",15,,"Ethan Perez","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T06:54:13.540Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",40,,"RowanE","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:44:29.059Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",40,,"meanderingmoose","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T15:42:35.522Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",50,,"Eli Lifland","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:19:20.467Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",12,,"Rafael Harth","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:37:44.476Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",13,,"Oskar Press Mathiasen","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:36:37.031Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",20,,"SoerenMind","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:58:48.170Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",80,,"Jonas","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T19:43:24.467Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",34,,"Rana Dexsin","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:16:02.151Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",54,,"Self_Optimization","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:21:15.266Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",20,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:11:49.423Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",13,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:43:29.808Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",10,,"this.is.patrick","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T15:08:48.017Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",50,,"NunoSempere","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:21:20.862Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",52,,"Self_Optimization","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:21:15.409Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",51,,"Self_Optimization","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:21:15.671Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",70,,"Ozyrus","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:07:55.345Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",18,,"TurnTrout","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:59:01.663Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",38,,"Self_Optimization","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:21:56.407Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",30,,"Self_Optimization","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:21:57.618Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",33,,"Mark Xu","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:12:53.107Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",41,,"Self_Optimization","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:21:59.796Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",2,,"digital_carver","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T11:31:09.757Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",10,,"Bogdan Ionut Cirstea","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T09:27:20.670Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",30,,"Andreas S","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T23:44:48.288Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",6,,"Felipe Calero Forero","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T10:05:56.458Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",24,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:45:50.911Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",35,,"nealeratzlaff","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T07:46:09.899Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",20,,"Pialgo","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T09:32:42.963Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",40,,"jacobjacob","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:20:09.146Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",20,,"VermillionStuka","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:56:06.665Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",20,,"adamShimi","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:46:14.765Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",8,,"SamuelKnoche","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T00:30:53.888Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",63,,"peterbarnett","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:56:26.783Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",99,,"akaTrickster","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T17:30:29.757Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",10,,"ete","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:06:01.406Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",3,,"Alexei","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:50:14.722Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",1,,"Alexei","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:50:13.651Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",8,,"Alexei","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:50:12.329Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",10,,"Max_Daniel","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:49:42.135Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",30,,"Yair Halberstadt","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T14:45:47.379Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",50,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:26:53.382Z","2020-11-20T21:32:14.467Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",75,"YES","Dennis K","alexrjl","Every Christmas reaches more than 6.2 ","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:28:32.857Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",25,"YES","jessie h","alexrjl","update 28%","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:27:46.358Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",35,"YES","Alex B","alexrjl","All previous years have been above 6.2 except 2019, they have been decreasing, and 2020 has been consistently less happy. But, the words chosen include Christmas and merry, which will likely be said just as much this year.","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:28:35.333Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",30,"YES","Jamie","alexrjl","The graph shows a downward trend overall especially for this year and although peaks are at christmas, the peak is more likely to be lower than last year with this year's trend.","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:28:46.329Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",20,"YES","k20126488","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:29:00.474Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",55,"YES","Dev T","alexrjl","This is because looking at last year, on Christmas Eve it was 6.1 and only rose to just below 6.2 (max) on New Years. But this year, I feel like more people would go to Twitter to express their happiness about this year. However, it doesn't detect sarcasm which is why it isn't higher","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:29:17.066Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",0,"YES","Krispy","alexrjl","Probably not since previous events can still have an effect on this and these events haven't raised it above 6.2 so X-mas won't also have much of an impact seeing as it would be celebrated differently this year","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:29:51.430Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",35,"YES","Jack T","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:27:53.847Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",33,"YES","benjamindevosuk","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:29:59.243Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",40,"YES","k20126290","alexrjl","It didn't reach 6.2 last year, and we have in general been more negative this year, however it could spike more dramatically since it is nearing the end of 2020, and it spikes every year on December ","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:30:00.657Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",30,"YES","Jack T","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:30:05.061Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",65,"YES","Vishal S","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:30:09.148Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",80,"YES","Sarmad","alexrjl","I think more people will say happy words this year as a sort of celebration to the end of a bad year thus it could beat 2019 and 2019 wasn’t much below 6.2","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:30:59.869Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",37,"YES","Krispy","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:31:08.071Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",30,"YES","Oscar M","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:31:10.266Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",40,"YES","Jamie","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:31:12.996Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",5,"YES","alisha.shahban","alexrjl","downwards trend, covid difficult year, will lower it","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:31:33.250Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",0,"YES","Static C","alexrjl","Downward trend","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:31:33.909Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",40,"YES","L","alexrjl","Overall downwards trend, but always spikes at Christmas, however people have been more negative this year","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:31:34.541Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",25,"YES","Julian C","alexrjl","Update - more convinced it won't happen.","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:31:34.629Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",52,"YES","k19078614","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:31:35.456Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",60,"YES","Egor K","alexrjl","Although the hedonometer usually shows a happiness of above 6.2 for Christmas - it didn't last year, this was a gloomy year and the predictions made here seem to be quite pessimistic which is a good indicator of the mood.","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:31:35.743Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",45,"YES","carlotta","alexrjl","update","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:31:36.403Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",5,"YES","stanleyjames84","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:31:36.856Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",20,"YES","Emils B","alexrjl","christmas day only reached above 6.2 when the years average was around 6","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:31:37.242Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",25,"YES","William G","alexrjl","coronavirus bad","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:31:38.151Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",10,"YES","owen.mackenzie","alexrjl","update","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:31:38.204Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",70,"YES","Vishal S","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:31:39.469Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",17.5,"YES","Abdullah Abraham M","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:31:39.638Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",0,"YES","KT","alexrjl","Downwards trend.","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:31:39.982Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",25,"YES","k20126275","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:31:40.226Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",15,"YES","Raj M","alexrjl","downwards trends and pandemic","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:31:43.086Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",40,"YES","Alex B","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:31:44.233Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",10,"YES","mouldyvinegar","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:26:16.709Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",10,"YES","stanleyjames84","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:25:57.940Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",0,"YES","k20126488","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:28:29.651Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",20,"YES","k20126488","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:28:24.373Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",30,"YES","O A","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:28:32.836Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",49,"YES","seryn M","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:26:45.862Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",85,"YES","k20126459","alexrjl","Update: When we made all of our predictions, we raised the community average from 30% to 33%","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:31:59.490Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",60,"YES","siyuan h","alexrjl","Well there has been a downward trend, but being a bad year, christmas will be more special for everyone this year compared to others","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:32:06.924Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",60,"YES","Vishal S","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:32:24.655Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",35,"YES","Oscar M","alexrjl","There has been a linear decrease for the last several years on both Christmas and Thanksgiving, however 2020 has been giving very chaotic so it is hard to tell.","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:31:49.266Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",50,"YES","Kao M","alexrjl","Update, none of the others convinced me, except for the other 50%'s. Data trends don't work because they don't work in other areas.","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:32:37.698Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",0,"YES","Oscar M","alexrjl","[Error]","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:31:49.489Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",13,"YES","KT","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:33:07.235Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",0,"YES","KT","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:33:10.839Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",15,"YES","rafael.davison","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:33:27.468Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",100,"YES","Kao M","alexrjl","to balance out mistakes","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:34:32.792Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",100,"YES","Kao M","alexrjl","to balance out mistakes","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:34:40.143Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",20,"YES","Irad S","alexrjl","20% of happiness score is higher next chirstmas","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:34:07.077Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",25,"YES","Alejandro I","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:26:41.124Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",18.653,"YES","Ronaldo B","alexrjl","(Updated)","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:31:32.269Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",20,"YES","Alejandro I","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:26:37.691Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",35,"YES","Oscar M","alexrjl","The average Christmas score has been decreasing at an approximately linear rate however there is still significant uncertainty","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:27:51.420Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",40,"YES","qays.mitchell","alexrjl","Depends on how bad Corona gets.","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:27:00.057Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",20,"YES","ottoollie36","alexrjl","as happiness has shown a trend downwards since 2016, with last year's happiness also being less than 6.2, and the coronavirus pandemic causing many families to be apart, and so causing less average happiness","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:25:04.503Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",15,"YES","k20126275","alexrjl","Overall downwards trend ","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:27:53.084Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",18.7,"YES","Ronaldo B","alexrjl","Predicting 6.1 based on overall trend over the years, but 2020 is different so it could even be lower.","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:27:51.357Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",0,"YES","k20126488","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:27:50.670Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",52,"YES","seryn M","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:27:35.592Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",45,"YES","O A","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:27:34.761Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",30,"YES","Julian C","alexrjl","The downwards trend suggests it won't - also, 2020 has been consistently lower than other years.","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:27:53.088Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",50,"YES","Kao M","alexrjl","Because, 2018 and 2019 had similar happiness on Thanksgiving. 2018 had it over, while 2019 did not. This is 50% of the time.","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:27:53.316Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",40,"YES","Seth B","alexrjl","Reference class of Christmas in previous years and trends in this year","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:27:54.144Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",0,"YES","Kao M","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:27:56.327Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",0,"YES","k20126488","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:27:56.931Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",0,"YES","Kao M","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:27:57.145Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",0,"YES","jessie h","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:27:57.203Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",5,"YES","owen.mackenzie","alexrjl","It was below 6.2 last year and it has been a below average year for happiness.","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:27:57.409Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",75,"YES","carlotta","alexrjl","Previous years show it to be above 6.2 but it appears to be decreasing and the overall happiness of this year is lower than previous years.","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:27:57.533Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",10,"YES","Tharuka H","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:27:57.584Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",0,"YES","k20126488","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:27:58.720Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",30,"YES","rebecca.jesson","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:27:58.879Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",35,"YES","Irad S","alexrjl","previous data trends","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:27:59.497Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",20,"YES","Toby G","alexrjl","xmas has been on a continuous decline over the past 5 years and theres even more reason for it to go down this year. Last year was below 6.2 but every year has been above so small chance to go up.","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:28:00.212Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",32,"YES","benjamindevosuk","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:27:25.983Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",40,"YES","Jahnavi B","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:27:23.424Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",0,"YES","k20126459","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:27:10.509Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",80,"YES","k20126459","alexrjl","It is a trend that there are peaks at Christmas","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:26:01.882Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",20,"YES","k20126283","alexrjl","The happiness of the past few years on Christmas day has been on a steady linear decrease.","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:27:03.589Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",40,"YES","Daniel f","alexrjl","It didn't reach 6.2 last year, and we have in general been more negative this year, however it could spike more dramatically since it is nearing the end of 2020, and it spikes every year on December 25th","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:28:00.282Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",75,"YES","Egor K","alexrjl","Historically, the answer was almost always yes (in the last 10 years this was true every time) except for 2019 when the answer was no. Given the percentage last year and the gloomy mood of this year, there is a chance that the hedonometer will not reach 6.2.","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:28:00.293Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",70,"YES","Vishal S","alexrjl","Oct 2009 with the H1N1 pandemic, also had a Christmas more than 6.2","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:28:00.626Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",30,"YES","Abdullah Abraham M","alexrjl","","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:28:01.904Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",86,"YES","k19078614","alexrjl","Everyone will look forward to the end of this year","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:28:02.627Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",10,"YES","alisha.shahban","alexrjl","covid, difficult year etc. will lower the score.","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:28:05.934Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",25,"YES","jay510.kh","alexrjl","Based on previous Christmas Days compared to the events weeks prior","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:28:10.328Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",25,"YES","William G","alexrjl","Christmas last year was below 6.2 without the collapse of late stage capitalism and the coronavirus, however people may be too hopeful","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:28:14.174Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",75,"YES","maisie.macdonald99","alexrjl","Christmas is often above 6.2. Also thanksgiving 2020 seemed similar to previous thanksgivings so may reflect that the pandemic hasn't changed much","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:28:14.770Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",54,"YES","siyuan h","alexrjl","I think that this year has not been a good year because of what has happened already, and christmas day may be more special this year","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:27:53.781Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",20,"YES","Emils B","alexrjl","the average level is below 6 whereas other years it was higher and only then was it above 6.2","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:28:22.961Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?",40,"YES","Raj M","alexrjl","when around 6, blows up to 6.2","https://hedonometer.org/timeseries/en_all/?from=2018-08-10&to=2020-12-14","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:28:23.414Z","2020-12-15T22:03:00.012Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",85,,"fin","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:51:18.793Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",99,,"Mark Xu","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:53:11.147Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",62,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T19:40:30.513Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",56,,"Jsevillamol","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T19:48:52.813Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",70,,"Jsevillamol","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T19:48:58.085Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",75,,"habryka","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T19:51:22.206Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",70,,"G Gordon Worley III","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T19:54:38.715Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",79,,"Measure","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:01:20.597Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",80,,"Measure","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:01:22.400Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",77,,"Noa Nabeshima","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:01:52.148Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",75,,"Noa Nabeshima","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:01:55.615Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",69,,"Noa Nabeshima","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:01:56.878Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",71,,"Noa Nabeshima","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:01:57.581Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",77,,"Noa Nabeshima","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:01:58.462Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",81,,"Noa Nabeshima","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:02:01.736Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",75,,"NunoSempere","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:03:08.627Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",84,,"Eli Lifland","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T19:51:21.469Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",85,,"Oskar Mathiasen","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:13:30.794Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",80,,"TurnTrout","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:35:04.088Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",91,,"jungwon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:42:39.817Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",75,,"Andreas S","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:10:17.981Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",90,,"Alexei","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:43:57.882Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",90,,"adamzerner","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:44:23.919Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",80,,"Tetraspace Grouping","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:46:55.218Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",75,,"Tetraspace Grouping","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:46:58.585Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",90,,"Ben Pace","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:55:06.388Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",95,,"TurnTrout","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:58:32.565Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",95,,"Rafael Harth","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:01:33.452Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",95,,"yagudin","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:10:21.482Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",90,,"Amanda N","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:48:48.482Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",95,,"Andreas S","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:50:19.728Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",94,,"Raemon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:40:40.836Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",99,,"Ethan Perez","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:41:13.774Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",96,,"TurnTrout","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T22:04:17.491Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",95,,"TurnTrout","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T22:04:18.818Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",96,,"TurnTrout","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T22:04:21.403Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",95,,"TurnTrout","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T22:04:22.638Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",99,,"jungwon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:41:23.315Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",53,,"jungwon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:54:42.410Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",68,,"jungwon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:54:43.567Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",99,,"gjm","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T22:28:00.153Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",98,,"Measure","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T22:51:44.759Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",95,,"Ben Pace","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T22:59:20.143Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",98,,"Andreas S","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T22:08:24.777Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",99,,"habryka","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T00:47:04.161Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",95,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T00:47:12.729Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",97,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T00:47:44.240Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",99,,"Unnamed","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:05:22.150Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",99,,"erintatum","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:15:19.213Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",99,,"DanielFilan","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:39:25.209Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",99,,"GuySrinivasan","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T03:07:35.585Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",98,,"Darkar Dengeno","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T03:23:35.112Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",99,,"Ben Pace","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T03:44:11.052Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",99,,"Zolmeister","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:16:43.748Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",99,,"Vaniver","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:36:00.794Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",92,,"Lanrian","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:42:30.061Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",96,,"Lanrian","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:42:33.319Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",99,,"Lanrian","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:42:33.598Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",99,,"Rana Dexsin","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:28:56.814Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",99,,"Eigil Rischel","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:58:34.119Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",99,,"MinusGix","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T14:20:42.814Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",99,,"yagudin","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T14:50:18.301Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",95,,"Owain_Evans","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T17:15:32.888Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",95,,"adamShimi","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T17:29:12.013Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",99,,"adamShimi","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T17:29:14.363Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",98,,"Bucky","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T19:51:09.945Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",99,,"Bucky","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T20:05:32.336Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",97,,"supposedlyfun","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:49:50.666Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",99,,"supposedlyfun","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:49:53.718Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",99,,"__nobody","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:34:35.285Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",99,,"Kaj_Sotala","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:27:33.032Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",99,,"Davidmanheim","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:42:09.632Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",99,,"gwillen","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T23:54:22.325Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",95,,"Eli Lifland","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:48:16.299Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",95,,"Amanda N","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:55:17.050Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",77,,"jungwon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:54:44.778Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",99,,"jungwon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:54:47.578Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",56,,"jungwon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:55:44.953Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",73,,"jungwon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:55:47.189Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",99,,"jungwon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:55:51.041Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",99,,"Andreas S","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T22:21:30.413Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",99,,"Pablo","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:14:24.361Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",99,,"gimpf","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T14:21:36.961Z","2020-11-20T19:40:07.245Z","2021-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",84,"YES","k19078614","alexrjl","","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:33.875Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",65,"YES","k20126283","alexrjl","Most people on this call were already interested in forecasting. Interest in other clubs have been low, thus the higher degree of uncertainty.","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:14.041Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",60,"YES","Ronaldo B","alexrjl","Imagining the distribution of scores, the peak of the graph will probably be at around 3 and 4. But then it's been a good talk so we'll add 10%.","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:13.740Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",20,"YES","Raj M","alexrjl","","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:39:27.380Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",25,"YES","Kao M","alexrjl","average is probably 3","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:36.162Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",75,"YES","Oscar M","alexrjl","It isn't unlikely as if someone is interested in the talk they will probably also be interested in the club, and people tend to put quite extreme values, raising the average if there is a positive outlook on it","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:36.195Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",70,"YES","k20126290","alexrjl","The most common response will probably be 3 since everyone in this meeting is somewhat interested as they joined this teams meeting, and some people will be very interested, therefore it will probably reach around 3.7 since it's very unlikely anyone will vote below 3","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:37.608Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",60,"YES","alisha.shahban","alexrjl","","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:22.102Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",23,"YES","Raj M","alexrjl","","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:23.778Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",70,"YES","jay510.kh","alexrjl","","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:37.981Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",60,"YES","Toby G","alexrjl","people are probably generally interested and i think people are more likely to put a 5 than a 1 so they don't look mean","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:23.919Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",60,"YES","Julian C","alexrjl","It sounds fun, especially due to the high number of people in this talk.","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:25.102Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",50,"YES","carlotta","alexrjl","","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:25.268Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",40,"YES","Jack T","alexrjl","The topic is very interesting and probably popular, but I think club turnout rates are fairly low ","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:16.134Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",85,"YES","Dev T","alexrjl","It's heavily biased as it's only emailed to those in the team's meeting who already have an interest in forecasting","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:16.564Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",76,"YES","rebecca.jesson","alexrjl","","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:26.604Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",45,"YES","O A","alexrjl","","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:15.505Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",70,"YES","Alex B","alexrjl","Only sent to those interested in forcasting already, so more likely to rate 4 or 5.","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:37.991Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",40,"YES","Abdullah Abraham M","alexrjl","i doubt everyone will end up attending, but that's not the question. it's more likely to say that they will turn up though, because 4 is common number to put down, since it's not right in the middle, but it tends towards showing interest","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:42:45.099Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",50,"YES","Dennis K","alexrjl","","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:38.732Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",20,"YES","siyuan h","alexrjl","I don't think that there is a high interest in the club based on what I have seen","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:16.643Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",65,"YES","k20126488","alexrjl","Normally less than 15 people attend a given club, if 25 people gave 4 or 5 average would be less","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:21.681Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",60,"YES","stanleyjames84","alexrjl","probably some inherent interest in forecasting among people who chose this talk","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:16.758Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",65,"YES","jessie h","alexrjl","","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:51.852Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",60,"YES","Jahnavi B","alexrjl","People seem quite interested (based off of the chat) and people tend to be initially quite eager ","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:52.814Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",10,"YES","mouldyvinegar","alexrjl","","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:01.768Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",80,"YES","Static C","alexrjl","","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:41:02.207Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",45,"YES","k20126275","alexrjl","","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:17.286Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",65,"YES","Tharuka H","alexrjl","","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:18.323Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",80,"YES","Egor K","alexrjl","Teacher run clubs tend to be more popular, interesting taster session for it","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:18.481Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",80,"YES","owen.mackenzie","alexrjl","I doubt people will put anything below 3 as it is very interesting so it is quite likely that there will be an average of more than 3.5 ","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:18.858Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",60,"YES","Jamie","alexrjl","","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:19.844Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",80,"YES","maisie.macdonald99","alexrjl","","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:20.893Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",60,"YES","Vishal S","alexrjl","People are usually interested in clubs also responses much more likely to be positive","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:21.417Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",45,"YES","William G","alexrjl","there are a significant number of people in this talk, however not a majority of the year and forecasting is more applied maths which doesnt seem to be as popular as pure","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:21.809Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",75,"YES","KT","alexrjl","","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:21.887Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",76,"YES","Ethan D","alexrjl","Since the form is being emailed to people in this talk, they will have a clear interest in this club, so it is likely that they would be interested in attending.","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:41:43.178Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",85,"YES","Sarmad","alexrjl","As this is a call with people who are interested in this I think it will likely be people would say either 4/5 even if they actually won’t go.","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:41:30.869Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",75,"YES","Emils B","alexrjl","","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:21.939Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",13,"YES","Irad S","alexrjl","","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:28.806Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",66,"YES","Krispy","alexrjl","Considering the teams call as our only source, we have about 60 people in the call and how enthusiastic everyone is in the call. Also, it is more likely that the majority of people will put a score of at least 3.","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:42:01.875Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",0,"YES","Krispy","alexrjl","","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:42:16.716Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",45,"YES","Seth B","alexrjl","","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:31.528Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?",23,"YES","Raj M","alexrjl","","based on survey sent out after intro session","KCLMS","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:40:14.369Z","2020-12-15T22:04:14.611Z","2020-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",58,,"Bucky","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T19:54:56.983Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",74,,"erintatum","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:15:32.157Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",89,,"sharps030","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-27T08:48:35.455Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",79,,"Yoav Ravid","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-05T08:15:37.391Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",80,,"gt22","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-17T19:25:34.322Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",45,,"libero","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T09:42:14.301Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",77,,"Oscilllator","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-27T08:57:26.910Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",15,,"Zolmeister","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:19:20.756Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",77,,"Julian_R","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T22:05:54.583Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",73,,"flowo","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T14:32:35.716Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",80,,"adamzerner","adamzerner","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:05:57.561Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",60,,"Andreas S","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T22:09:29.497Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",25,,"yagudin","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:11:11.089Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",70,,"dxu","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T04:01:53.175Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",54,,"pepe_prime","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T23:37:45.529Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",32,,"Rana Dexsin","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:29:46.346Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",74,,"KingBoomie","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-27T13:37:27.340Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",85,,"abramdemski","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T21:59:42.927Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",41,,"pepe_prime","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T23:43:23.296Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",57,,"gwillen","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T23:52:39.280Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",39,,"Richard_Ngo","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T03:04:28.648Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",50,,"Eigil Rischel","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T14:00:13.238Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",75,,"ShardPhoenix","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T00:12:51.806Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",58,,"MinusGix","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T14:21:09.940Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",20,,"Jsevillamol","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:04:16.801Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",66,,"__nobody","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:33:51.541Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",35,,"Eli Lifland","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T22:14:03.119Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",36,,"jp","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T15:51:50.800Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",63,,"pepe_prime","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T23:37:40.388Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",65,,"pepe_prime","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T23:37:40.245Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",62,,"Hazard","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T14:37:33.276Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",98,,"Charbel-Raphaël Segerie","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T17:09:33.528Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",59,,"Hazard","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T14:37:30.113Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",32,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T16:16:05.588Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",66,,"Ethan Perez","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:49:40.404Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",60,,"Pablo","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T14:24:51.395Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",75,,"adamShimi","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T15:06:01.426Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",65,,"TurnTrout","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T22:02:51.928Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",80,,"masasin","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T19:52:21.851Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",40,,"Ben Pace","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T22:11:11.325Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",80,,"Elias Edgren","adamzerner",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T11:37:21.823Z","2020-11-20T21:05:57.554Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",65,,"gwern","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-24T22:48:23.000Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",70,,"ZLM","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",2,,"Deepak","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-25T20:04:43.970Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",35,,"sflicht","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-25T19:19:50.000Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",50,,"unexpectedEOF","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-15T02:06:34.000Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",71,,"supinf","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-31T00:25:38.000Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",20,,"ArturoGoosnargh","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-30T09:56:47.000Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",55,,"JoshuaZ","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-20T18:13:23.000Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",50,,"schepens","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-20T18:11:15.000Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",50,,"erikbjare","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-30T23:00:41.000Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",45,,"RandomThinker","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-08-01T16:18:02.000Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",70,,"rydra_w","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-07-31T15:58:44.000Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",50,,"Tuxedage","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-22T05:41:22.000Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",35,,"lavalamp","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-12T22:54:28.000Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",40,,"Jayson Virissimo","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-10T22:54:38.000Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",90,,"asdfgeoff","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-25T12:47:08.844Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",0,,"deleteyourbrain","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T02:57:31.397Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",30,,"pranomostro","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T22:45:34.901Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",70,,"Medea","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-15T16:09:44.000Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",40,,"Pupu","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-11T16:21:50.000Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",70,,"VonFoerster","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-14T20:57:31.000Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",65,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","ZLM","It should be by market cap (total number of coins times total dollar value). ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-27T07:18:39.000Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",30,,"qznc","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-25T12:16:57.000Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",55,,"Baeboo","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T03:38:17.968Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",45,,"pranomostro","ZLM","On a second thought, ethereum seems like a serious competitor.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T22:46:00.476Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",65,,"davatk","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-01T22:51:41.000Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",60,,"mrmrpotatohead","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-23T07:31:57.000Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",80,,"equivrel","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-14T00:16:40.000Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",90,,"bobpage","ZLM","9 years for some crazy country to force an exchange of its money for cryptocoin, or for a zerocash to catch on",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-04T02:12:59.000Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",40,,"InquilineKea","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-30T18:11:23.000Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",60,,"axsys","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-22T02:49:05.000Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",80,,"kkoolook","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-11T21:53:04.000Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",55,,"Lovre","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-08-04T19:23:21.000Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",90,,"rebellionkid","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-06-12T09:00:59.000Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",70,,"Ken","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-06-11T20:02:06.000Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",80,,"erikbjare","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-25T08:33:58.000Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",80,,"Michael Dickens","ZLM","I doubt Bitcoin will be around by then; and if it still is, surely someone will have come up with something better and more popular.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-19T02:29:50.000Z","2014-02-10T05:51:11.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",95,,"gimpf","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-16T13:07:24.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",82,,"Baeboo","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T00:57:07.942Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",90,,"Baeboo","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-21T08:01:18.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",99,,"rwallace","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",40,,"mjgeddes","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-15T02:24:43.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",92,,"Baeboo","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-25T04:37:00.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",75,,"NathanMcKnight","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-07T21:35:44.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",72,,"Pablo","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-27T23:11:38.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",50,,"themusicgod1","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T22:45:59.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",90,,"ChristianKl","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-15T10:17:41.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",50,,"halfwit","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-10T02:52:22.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",85,,"Anubhav","rwallace","Typo. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-16T04:11:17.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",60,,"Larks","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-29T21:41:44.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",93,,"drcode","rwallace","I don't think we can know anything that far out with 99% certainty",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-14T11:22:23.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",20,,"JamesMiller","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-14T16:11:57.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",45,,"Malgidus","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-27T20:26:51.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",98,,"Tuxedage","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-03T19:39:51.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",100,,"herb","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-03T10:02:01.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",75,,"faws","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-22T17:15:31.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",85,,"kilobug","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-18T17:16:47.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",50,,"im","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-15T16:31:10.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",95,,"Anubhav","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-16T04:08:52.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",97,,"JoshuaZ","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-16T01:48:04.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",75,,"pranomostro","rwallace","Ah, damn",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-09T13:05:59.511Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",85,,"lavalamp","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-15T22:19:25.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",7,,"bobpage","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-21T17:08:49.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",50,,"gwern","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-28T22:39:38.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",98,,"alpha-mouse","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-22T16:00:32.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",60,,"Pablo","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-11-12T23:22:40.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",10,,"DanArmak","rwallace","I also wager 100% that none of us will come back to this site and this prediction in the year 2040.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-16T19:02:02.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",75,,"freyley","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-21T00:52:59.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",50,,"gallerdude","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-21T19:40:26.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",95,,"Zack P","rwallace","",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-07T18:27:38.899Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",3,,"anonym","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-17T08:22:59.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",50,,"kess3r","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-15T02:14:04.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",99,,"Jack","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-14T17:55:30.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",70,,"tommccabe","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-14T15:38:36.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",0,,"deleteyourbrain","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:09:03.335Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",85,,"pranomostro","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:40:52.283Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",68,,"pranomostro","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T23:08:36.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",80,,"pranomostro","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T23:08:22.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",88,,"Baeboo","rwallace",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-07T18:07:18.000Z","2009-10-14T10:29:49.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",67,,"riceissa","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T20:59:12.198Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",15,,"Dach","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T06:29:12.591Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",68,,"peterbarnett","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:53:16.052Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",86,,"dregntael","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-13T08:40:39.868Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",98,,"dregntael","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-13T08:40:41.905Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",88,,"dregntael","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-13T08:40:42.832Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",90,,"dregntael","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-13T08:40:43.865Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",70,,"Robert Lynn","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T09:31:12.042Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",50,,"Pialgo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T09:29:49.858Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",35,,"Adam Scholl","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:31:48.723Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",86,,"akaTrickster","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T17:29:09.481Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",81,,"Gunnar_Zarncke","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:29:55.524Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",34,,"Rafael Harth","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T11:14:36.923Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",62,,"Felipe Calero Forero","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T09:52:34.545Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",70,,"meanderingmoose","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T15:38:55.689Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",50,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:21:24.348Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",60,,"SamuelKnoche","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T08:21:04.514Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",61,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:21:16.440Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",35,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T00:51:10.143Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",60,,"Bogdan Ionut Cirstea","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T09:22:41.505Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",50,,"adamShimi","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:43:29.546Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",80,,"Telofy","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:51:24.956Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",50,,"this.is.patrick","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T13:43:58.578Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",70,,"alokja","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T22:02:32.975Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",65,,"Matthew Barnett","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T22:40:00.975Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",80,,"rohinmshah","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T16:42:37.595Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",33,,"RyanCarey","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T01:01:19.671Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",90,,"rohinmshah","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-05T22:02:05.174Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",13,,"digital_carver","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T11:15:44.790Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",80,,"rohinmshah","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-05T22:02:12.444Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",70,,"Jeffrey Yun","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:22:39.745Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",50,,"Robert Lynn","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T09:31:21.879Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",20,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:56:58.464Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",70,,"Alex Ray","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:15:17.172Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",55,,"SoerenMind","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:51:50.428Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",60,,"SoerenMind","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:52:11.807Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",34,,"Teerth Aloke","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T13:05:46.910Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",60,,"matthew.vandermerwe","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T18:18:19.460Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",65,,"Mikhail Samin","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T12:15:10.446Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",66,,"Andreas S","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T01:23:21.597Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",60,,"Teerth Aloke","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T13:05:54.245Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",80,,"Yair Halberstadt","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T14:44:30.055Z","2020-11-21T23:40:44.810Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",1,,"enolan","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-03-23T22:58:58.000Z","2017-01-10T04:08:18.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",0,,"NickN","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T02:56:27.009Z","2017-01-10T04:08:18.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",0,,"Deepak","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-21T16:11:00.653Z","2017-01-10T04:08:18.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",0,,"Tony Boyles","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-24T19:39:52.000Z","2017-01-10T04:08:18.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",0,,"Bruno Parga","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-19T04:18:16.000Z","2017-01-10T04:08:18.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",0,,"Alti Camelus","bobpage","I'd say 0.01% chance, but the form doesn't let me.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-12T12:15:39.000Z","2017-01-10T04:08:18.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",1,,"pent","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-23T22:56:30.000Z","2017-01-10T04:08:18.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",0,,"Temeraire","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-19T00:01:21.000Z","2017-01-10T04:08:18.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",1,,"spqr0a1","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-15T19:12:58.000Z","2017-01-10T04:08:18.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",1,,"arpanagarawal","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-15T19:12:14.000Z","2017-01-10T04:08:18.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",1,,"two2thehead","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-14T04:59:37.000Z","2017-01-10T04:08:18.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",0,,"daccount10","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-14T03:29:58.000Z","2017-01-10T04:08:18.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",1,,"WilliamBerkeley","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-13T02:45:13.000Z","2017-01-10T04:08:18.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",0,,"Baeboo","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-14T06:47:00.000Z","2017-01-10T04:08:18.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",1,,"pranomostro","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-02T20:45:37.000Z","2017-01-10T04:08:18.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",0,,"crabman","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-29T13:25:59.000Z","2017-01-10T04:08:18.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",1,,"zain.kazi@gmail.com","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-04-01T07:49:25.000Z","2017-01-10T04:08:18.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",0,,"ioannes","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-17T22:06:04.000Z","2017-01-10T04:08:18.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",0,,"gwern","bobpage","so, uh, what sort of scenarios are you all giving such credibility to?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-15T19:12:59.000Z","2017-01-10T04:08:18.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",1,,"kuudes","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-15T19:06:43.000Z","2017-01-10T04:08:18.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",1,,"Michael Dickens","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-14T04:01:06.000Z","2017-01-10T04:08:18.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",1,,"imaxwell","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-11T05:34:11.000Z","2017-01-10T04:08:18.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",1,,"JoshuaZ","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-20T01:29:56.000Z","2017-01-10T04:08:18.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",1,,"playablecharacter","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-10T21:39:16.000Z","2017-01-10T04:08:18.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",1,,"penten","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-10T13:16:01.000Z","2017-01-10T04:08:18.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",9,,"bobpage","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-10T04:08:18.000Z","2017-01-10T04:08:18.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",0,,"jasticE","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-21T22:23:06.000Z","2017-01-10T04:08:18.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",0,,"Peteris","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-23T07:45:49.000Z","2017-01-10T04:08:18.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",1,,"qznc","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-15T18:21:32.951Z","2017-01-10T04:08:18.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",2,,"themusicgod1","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-10T06:21:46.000Z","2017-01-10T04:08:18.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",0,,"Medea","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-15T16:04:03.000Z","2017-01-10T04:08:18.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",0,,"Bruno Parga","bobpage","Adding another 0 isn't cheating if it's done nearly three years after the first one, right?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-03T20:26:41.030Z","2017-01-10T04:08:18.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",1,,"tedks","bobpage","It doesn't seem entirely impossible to me that a superstate could encompass both the US and Russia. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-20T17:42:59.000Z","2017-01-10T04:08:18.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",0,,"JoshuaZ","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T18:36:05.810Z","2017-01-10T04:08:18.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The Pope will be assassinated.",5,,"simplicio","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-02T15:36:54.000Z","2013-11-28T02:01:02.000Z","2028-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Pope will be assassinated.",8,,"Nithi","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-23T02:18:34.000Z","2013-11-28T02:01:02.000Z","2028-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Pope will be assassinated.",1,,"Rowan93","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-24T17:02:40.000Z","2013-11-28T02:01:02.000Z","2028-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Pope will be assassinated.",3,,"hedges","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-03-03T11:33:45.000Z","2013-11-28T02:01:02.000Z","2028-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Pope will be assassinated.",1,,"RoryS","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-18T00:43:45.000Z","2013-11-28T02:01:02.000Z","2028-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Pope will be assassinated.",5,,"Unknowns","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-14T05:13:39.000Z","2013-11-28T02:01:02.000Z","2028-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Pope will be assassinated.",2,,"Baeboo","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T03:41:32.663Z","2013-11-28T02:01:02.000Z","2028-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Pope will be assassinated.",3,,"pranomostro","NancyLebovitz","Given that 10 popes have been killed (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_murdered_popes#Murdered_popes) and there have been 266 popes up to date, this is my estimate.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T22:49:46.642Z","2013-11-28T02:01:02.000Z","2028-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Pope will be assassinated.",2,,"PlacidPlatypus","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-14T14:36:54.000Z","2013-11-28T02:01:02.000Z","2028-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Pope will be assassinated.",1,,"splorridge","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-14T11:16:46.000Z","2013-11-28T02:01:02.000Z","2028-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Pope will be assassinated.",1,,"artir","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-13T21:16:06.000Z","2013-11-28T02:01:02.000Z","2028-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Pope will be assassinated.",8,,"equivrel","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-14T00:17:06.000Z","2013-11-28T02:01:02.000Z","2028-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Pope will be assassinated.",1,,"Temeraire","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-12T03:16:47.000Z","2013-11-28T02:01:02.000Z","2028-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Pope will be assassinated.",5,,"sweeneyrod","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-29T14:59:42.000Z","2013-11-28T02:01:02.000Z","2028-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Pope will be assassinated.",0,,"deleteyourbrain","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T02:57:37.973Z","2013-11-28T02:01:02.000Z","2028-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Pope will be assassinated.",4,,"themusicgod1","NancyLebovitz","10/154 popes *possibly* murdered, 3/154 confirmed.  ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-14T02:08:37.000Z","2013-11-28T02:01:02.000Z","2028-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Pope will be assassinated.",3,,"NancyLebovitz","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-28T02:01:02.000Z","2013-11-28T02:01:02.000Z","2028-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Pope will be assassinated.",11,,"fela","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-04T15:40:35.000Z","2013-11-28T02:01:02.000Z","2028-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Pope will be assassinated.",1,,"procran","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-03-08T01:19:26.000Z","2013-11-28T02:01:02.000Z","2028-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Pope will be assassinated.",1,,"Pablo","NancyLebovitz","Extremely unlikely; excluding speculative allegations, no pope has been assassinated since the Middle Ages, and the mean pope tenure is maybe 5 years.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-10T22:25:09.000Z","2013-11-28T02:01:02.000Z","2028-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Pope will be assassinated.",1,,"unexpectedEOF","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-15T01:09:55.000Z","2013-11-28T02:01:02.000Z","2028-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Pope will be assassinated.",1,,"Tuxedage","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-03-09T05:57:05.000Z","2013-11-28T02:01:02.000Z","2028-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Pope will be assassinated.",0,,"Ken","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-06-11T20:03:53.000Z","2013-11-28T02:01:02.000Z","2028-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Pope will be assassinated.",5,,"rebellionkid","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-06-12T09:02:43.000Z","2013-11-28T02:01:02.000Z","2028-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Pope will be assassinated.",1,,"Baeboo","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-12T05:07:55.585Z","2013-11-28T02:01:02.000Z","2028-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Pope will be assassinated.",1,,"JoshuaZ","NancyLebovitz","Still around 1%, but if two more years go by, update to 0.4% which rounds to 0% given age. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-11T20:09:26.233Z","2013-11-28T02:01:02.000Z","2028-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Pope will be assassinated.",3,,"Medea","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-11T08:46:36.780Z","2013-11-28T02:01:02.000Z","2028-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Pope will be assassinated.",6,,"bomeor","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-17T18:55:38.181Z","2013-11-28T02:01:02.000Z","2028-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Pope will be assassinated.",1,,"JoshuaZ","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-28T22:34:13.000Z","2013-11-28T02:01:02.000Z","2028-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Pope will be assassinated.",3,,"moridinamael","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-07T17:46:43.000Z","2013-11-28T02:01:02.000Z","2028-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Pope will be assassinated.",4,,"RandomThinker","NancyLebovitz","@Nancy I don't think that's impossible.  The last ""liberal"" pope was possibly done in. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope_John_Paul_I",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-12-03T01:52:35.000Z","2013-11-28T02:01:02.000Z","2028-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Pope will be assassinated.",5,,"gwern","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-12-04T18:44:29.000Z","2013-11-28T02:01:02.000Z","2028-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",5,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-10T00:05:55.000Z","2012-01-24T03:12:25.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",1,,"tylercurtis","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-28T21:25:59.000Z","2012-01-24T03:12:25.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",5,,"Tuxedage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-14T21:25:51.000Z","2012-01-24T03:12:25.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",1,,"Grognor","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-12T20:44:18.000Z","2012-01-24T03:12:25.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",1,,"Emanuel Rylke","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-29T15:44:05.000Z","2012-01-24T03:12:25.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",5,,"army1987","gwern","Possible if by “language” you mean ‘a dialect with an army and a navy’, but I'm taking this to mean there will be no people speaking anything else on a daily basis (where “else” = ‘not mutually intelligible’).",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-10T10:16:48.000Z","2012-01-24T03:12:25.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",1,,"Laurent Bossavit","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-01T10:59:11.000Z","2012-01-24T03:12:25.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",0,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern","I'd assign a probability of about 95% to people speaking Japanese in Japan 100 years from now.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-29T10:58:55.000Z","2012-01-24T03:12:25.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",1,,"endoself","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-27T21:29:04.000Z","2012-01-24T03:12:25.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",2,,"Leo","gwern","Spanish not so likely candidate. Arabic, Japanese look healthy.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-26T14:42:04.000Z","2012-01-24T03:12:25.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",0,,"JoshuaZ","gwern","Anubhav, good point. Updating accordingly. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-24T15:55:59.000Z","2012-01-24T03:12:25.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",2,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T00:25:04.018Z","2012-01-24T03:12:25.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",1,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-26T04:10:11.000Z","2012-01-24T03:12:25.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",10,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T23:34:44.000Z","2012-01-24T03:12:25.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",5,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-10T00:04:25.000Z","2012-01-24T03:12:25.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","gwern","Putonghua, Hindi, Bengali, Arabic, and various other languages have hundreds of millions of native speakers. There will be at least 7 languages, not 3.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-30T13:57:45.000Z","2012-01-24T03:12:25.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",3,,"luxpir","gwern",">90% native? Perhaps >90% second language, that would be closer to 30% for me.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-29T09:23:41.000Z","2012-01-24T03:12:25.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",0,,"Unknowns","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-27T04:20:02.000Z","2012-01-24T03:12:25.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",5,,"hampuslj","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-02T13:41:00.000Z","2012-01-24T03:12:25.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",0,,"ChristianKl","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-29T00:56:05.000Z","2012-01-24T03:12:25.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",1,,"seifip","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-14T09:37:32.000Z","2012-01-24T03:12:25.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",0,,"Elithrion","gwern","Improved automated translation is actually likely to slow decline of small languages, I'd imagine. (Would still be ~0% regardless, though.)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-01T21:44:00.000Z","2012-01-24T03:12:25.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",1,,"RandomThinker","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-06T19:42:37.000Z","2012-01-24T03:12:25.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",0,,"NathanMcKnight","gwern","Only because I disagree with gwern's operationalization. A better interpretation is ""99% of all other languages moribund,"" in which case I'd put the chance near 100%. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-30T20:01:31.000Z","2012-01-24T03:12:25.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",1,,"Jach","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-29T23:56:38.000Z","2012-01-24T03:12:25.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",0,,"muflax","gwern","for some standard definition of ""language"" that puts British and American English in the same, but Portugese and Spanish in different languages",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-28T14:19:46.000Z","2012-01-24T03:12:25.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",0,,"bobpage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-28T05:11:02.000Z","2012-01-24T03:12:25.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",0,,"faws","gwern","Even if children stopped learning any other languages tomorrow there'd still be centenarians. Basically requires extinction of humans except for a handful of survivors, e. g. a Chinese-US space crew that happens to include a Spanish speakers. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-26T15:53:48.000Z","2012-01-24T03:12:25.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",0,,"HonoreDB","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-24T18:40:19.000Z","2012-01-24T03:12:25.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",0,,"Anubhav","gwern","And that catastrophe preserves EXACTLY these three languages, Joshua?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-24T04:11:08.000Z","2012-01-24T03:12:25.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",5,,"JoshuaZ","gwern","Almost equivalent to a large scale catastrophe destroying most humans. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-24T03:23:53.000Z","2012-01-24T03:12:25.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",30,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-24T03:12:25.000Z","2012-01-24T03:12:25.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",10,,"hampuslj","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-02T13:40:19.000Z","2012-01-24T03:12:25.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",20,,"qznc","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-25T12:13:52.000Z","2013-04-15T07:41:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",10,,"Nic_Smith","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-17T01:06:43.000Z","2013-04-15T07:41:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",30,,"NickN","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T04:34:47.604Z","2013-04-15T07:41:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",45,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-15T07:41:56.000Z","2013-04-15T07:41:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",20,,"a0c4a123f7","RandomThinker","Haven't found him in three years, the people who were accused of being him have all denied it.

Someone might claim to be him but I don't think we'll have a high confidence in it/know.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-15T23:04:13.000Z","2013-04-15T07:41:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",30,,"Samm","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-26T03:57:49.000Z","2013-04-15T07:41:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",60,,"gwern","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-15T19:30:56.000Z","2013-04-15T07:41:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",80,,"dusk","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-15T14:00:35.000Z","2013-04-15T07:41:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",38,,"JoshuaZ","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-15T20:23:59.000Z","2013-04-15T07:41:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",22,,"Baeboo","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T03:02:28.278Z","2013-04-15T07:41:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",35,,"bitbatbot","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-22T02:14:43.000Z","2013-04-15T07:41:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",30,,"EloiseRosen","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-21T21:34:57.000Z","2013-04-15T07:41:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",60,,"leo_gri","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-21T18:35:12.000Z","2013-04-15T07:41:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",46,,"themusicgod1","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-11T04:06:45.000Z","2013-04-15T07:41:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",60,,"ioannes","RandomThinker","following gwern, who gave only 60% on 2015-11-15 (notable because their Wired piece was published shortly thereafter: http://www.wired.com/2015/12/bitcoins-creator-satoshi-nakamoto-is-probably-this-unknown-australian-genius/)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-20T21:31:45.000Z","2013-04-15T07:41:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",95,,"bobpage","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-09T08:04:01.000Z","2013-04-15T07:41:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",20,,"danielfilan","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-27T21:59:13.000Z","2013-04-15T07:41:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",50,,"Tuxedage","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-15T22:05:50.000Z","2013-04-15T07:41:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",20,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-27T07:20:22.000Z","2013-04-15T07:41:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",10,,"Baeboo","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T05:03:03.293Z","2013-04-15T07:41:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",2,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T07:14:03.420Z","2013-04-15T07:41:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",100,,"deleteyourbrain","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T03:02:47.115Z","2013-04-15T07:41:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",10,,"pranomostro","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:02:45.632Z","2013-04-15T07:41:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",40,,"penten","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-31T12:51:26.000Z","2013-04-15T07:41:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",20,,"mrmrpotatohead","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-23T07:30:29.000Z","2013-04-15T07:41:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",30,,"ChristianKl","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-21T19:46:22.000Z","2013-04-15T07:41:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-21T06:41:31.000Z","2013-04-15T07:41:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",50,,"equivrel","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-14T00:13:19.000Z","2013-04-15T07:41:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",65,,"Jayson Virissimo","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-09T20:07:25.000Z","2013-04-15T07:41:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",80,,"kuudes","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-08T21:34:05.000Z","2013-04-15T07:41:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",30,,"Medea","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-01T22:35:00.000Z","2013-04-15T07:41:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",72,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-25T13:51:36.000Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",60,,"btrettel","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-10T13:26:14.000Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",65,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-10T13:28:39.000Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",99,,"Afforess","InquilineKea","Silly not to go all in on this prediction. If I am wrong, no one will be around to remember!",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-10T21:37:29.000Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",60,,"gwern","InquilineKea","5 years isn't necessarily very long for something in maintenance mode. Hasn't PB been around for ~6 now?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-10T21:38:53.000Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",99,,"_W_","InquilineKea","Pascal's wager!",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-19T12:13:15.000Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",75,,"sdr","InquilineKea","First snapshot @ 2009: https://web.archive.org/web/20090517213541/http://predictionbook.com/   ; zero maintenance, but personal reasons for TrikeApps' founder to foot (low) bills; source available @ github, likely.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T02:42:06.000Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",80,,"Jayson Virissimo","InquilineKea","Am including the possibility of someone else hosting it in its 'survival'.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-03T17:30:40.000Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",70,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea","Because of distortions caused by Pascal's wager. If I were honest, I'd estimate 45%.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-27T07:27:03.000Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",70,,"ioannes","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-20T21:34:11.000Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",80,,"Medea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-21T11:28:44.000Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",50,,"qznc","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-25T12:14:53.000Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",80,,"tymotm","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-20T04:09:52.000Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",68,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-16T12:35:37.000Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",70,,"David","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-19T13:38:10.000Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",90,,"AlexLamson","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-20T19:42:35.669Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",100,,"deleteyourbrain","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T02:57:02.856Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",70,,"AlexLamson","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-16T23:39:16.469Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",70,,"telegrafista","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-14T15:54:26.346Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",90,,"pranomostro","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T22:45:12.465Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",98,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-17T19:20:20.298Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",100,,"bomeor","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-17T18:55:07.421Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",96,,"Baeboo","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T03:17:42.555Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",100,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea","Pascal's wager. What was I thinking before, betting less than 100%...?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-08T02:26:21.428Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",98,,"Baeboo","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-20T01:49:02.145Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",98,,"wizzwizz4","InquilineKea","I reckon around 1 in 40 of the smallish sites I use will go down by the end of the year, due to current events. Rounding up because this one's been around for a while.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-19T15:25:10.108Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",93,,"amadeu","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-07T21:05:00.742Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",99,,"azatris","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-18T11:19:41.708Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",100,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-18T00:42:34.511Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",93,,"Baeboo","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T03:19:34.786Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",100,,"NickN","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T07:02:23.990Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",97,,"Baeboo","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-15T21:43:51.231Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",100,,"Baeboo","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T03:43:54.484Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",90,,"qznc","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-15T18:22:50.272Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",80,,"PseudonymousUser","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-16T12:05:16.000Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",90,,"davatk","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-26T16:52:15.000Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",99,,"two2thehead","InquilineKea","Lesswrong has a high median IQ. PB has overlap with LW. IQ is an imperfect predictor of persistence. Higher IQ has a predicts higher probability of persistence.

Conclusion. Very likely.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-28T15:15:21.000Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",70,,"leo_gri","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-21T18:32:42.000Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",51,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-11T02:25:30.000Z","2015-07-10T06:37:08.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",10,,"digital_carver","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T11:18:38.746Z","2020-11-21T23:42:35.812Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",25,,"Teerth Aloke","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T13:06:18.406Z","2020-11-21T23:42:35.812Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",20,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:56:59.998Z","2020-11-21T23:42:35.812Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",4,,"rohinmshah","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T16:43:08.449Z","2020-11-21T23:42:35.812Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",48,,"Hjalmar_Wijk","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T15:03:43.253Z","2020-11-21T23:42:35.812Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",84,,"Adam Scholl","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:33:53.416Z","2020-11-21T23:42:35.812Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",50,,"adamShimi","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:43:38.280Z","2020-11-21T23:42:35.812Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",60,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T00:51:17.247Z","2020-11-21T23:42:35.812Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",30,,"dregntael","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-13T08:41:01.011Z","2020-11-21T23:42:35.812Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",1,,"alokja","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T22:02:45.632Z","2020-11-21T23:42:35.812Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",28,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:21:45.874Z","2020-11-21T23:42:35.812Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",40,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:21:43.734Z","2020-11-21T23:42:35.812Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",50,,"Noa Nabeshima","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T18:21:39.806Z","2020-11-21T23:42:35.812Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",18,,"Felipe Calero Forero","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T09:53:18.071Z","2020-11-21T23:42:35.812Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",38,,"Jeffrey Yun","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:26:55.583Z","2020-11-21T23:42:35.812Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",87,,"riceissa","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T21:06:27.417Z","2020-11-21T23:42:35.812Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",85,,"riceissa","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T21:03:35.635Z","2020-11-21T23:42:35.812Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",7,,"matthew.vandermerwe","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T18:32:26.107Z","2020-11-21T23:42:35.812Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",18,,"SoerenMind","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:52:38.926Z","2020-11-21T23:42:35.812Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",40,,"Alex Ray","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:15:45.911Z","2020-11-21T23:42:35.812Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",3,,"rohinmshah","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-05T22:03:26.366Z","2020-11-21T23:42:35.812Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",10,,"Matthew Barnett","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T22:40:26.493Z","2020-11-21T23:42:35.812Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",20,,"Dach","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T06:32:43.776Z","2020-11-21T23:42:35.812Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",20,,"SamuelKnoche","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T08:22:54.147Z","2020-11-21T23:42:35.812Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",35,,"akaTrickster","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T17:29:17.369Z","2020-11-21T23:42:35.812Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",8,,"Andreas S","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T01:24:48.841Z","2020-11-21T23:42:35.812Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",85,,"Robert Lynn","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T09:32:20.870Z","2020-11-21T23:42:35.812Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",19,,"Pialgo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T09:30:18.675Z","2020-11-21T23:42:35.812Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",80,,"Rafael Harth","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T11:14:48.059Z","2020-11-21T23:42:35.812Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",50,,"meanderingmoose","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T15:39:18.849Z","2020-11-21T23:42:35.812Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",50,,"Mikhail Samin","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T12:15:25.189Z","2020-11-21T23:42:35.812Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",79,,"Telofy","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:52:35.045Z","2020-11-21T23:42:35.812Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",39,,"peterbarnett","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:54:03.510Z","2020-11-21T23:42:35.812Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",14,,"peterbarnett","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:54:17.684Z","2020-11-21T23:42:35.812Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",65,,"Pablo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T11:43:43.803Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",80,,"Max_Daniel","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:42:51.980Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",75,,"Max_Daniel","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:40:35.303Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",51,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T18:35:04.823Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",75,,"Tamay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T18:22:31.575Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",20,,"paulfchristiano","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T18:12:55.209Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",60,,"Eli Lifland","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:06:27.080Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",41,,"David Pape","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T14:56:28.753Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",70,,"RowanE","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:41:41.660Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",65,,"Vanilla_cabs","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:36:21.698Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",47,,"Oskar Press Mathiasen","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:33:07.092Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",32,,"Rafael Harth","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:17:26.486Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",60,,"frankybegs","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:01:22.173Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",75,,"NunoSempere","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:23:50.155Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",60,,"Ozyrus","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:06:42.164Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",20,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:28:05.588Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",80,,"Max_Daniel","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:43:19.651Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",32,,"ete","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T22:59:41.642Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",65,,"Lanrian","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:50:47.540Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",64,,"Lanrian","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:50:45.824Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",65,,"Lanrian","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:50:44.673Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",53,,"Lanrian","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:50:43.519Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",15,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:41:08.975Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",13,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:41:08.022Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",33,,"Mark Xu","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:59:53.737Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",19,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:41:06.510Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",21,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:41:05.662Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",23,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:41:03.376Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",66,,"TurnTrout","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:56:03.838Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",50,,"Gurkenglas","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:22:05.502Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",85,,"Max_Daniel","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:43:08.826Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",35,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:18:15.217Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",34,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:18:14.394Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",29,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:18:13.137Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",35,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:15:21.350Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",34,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:15:18.777Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",35,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:15:18.714Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",75,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:15:17.588Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",38,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:07:12.811Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",65,,"Amanda N","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:08:42.052Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",60,,"Amanda N","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:08:36.723Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",25,,"jimrandomh","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:16:35.582Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",48,,"jacobjacob","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:14:33.797Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",29,,"Raemon","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:13:31.662Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",25,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:42:25.385Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",35,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T00:37:55.644Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",45,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T00:37:48.864Z","2020-11-20T18:26:23.905Z","2100-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",29,,"jacobjacob","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T03:14:21.957Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",31,,"jacobjacob","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T05:31:13.018Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",36,,"jacobjacob","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T03:13:33.440Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",32,,"jacobjacob","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T03:13:26.524Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",28,,"jacobjacob","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T03:13:25.576Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",39,,"jacobjacob","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T03:13:11.027Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",43,,"jacobjacob","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T03:13:06.331Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",68,,"Pablo","Pablo","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:18:48.245Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",62,,"Pablo","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T15:45:00.380Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",69,,"Rana Dexsin","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:30:40.486Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",51,,"Taleuntum","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:31:08.445Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",68,,"Pablo","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T15:45:07.630Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",46,,"Taleuntum","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:31:12.527Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",75,,"Taleuntum","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:31:16.995Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",66,,"Taleuntum","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:31:18.408Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",75,,"libero","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T09:42:40.120Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",33,,"__nobody","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T10:04:54.055Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",65,,"Elias Edgren","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T11:37:49.169Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",48,,"jacobjacob","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T03:13:03.871Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",45,,"Eli Lifland","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T03:34:00.715Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",80,,"Davidmanheim","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:41:15.109Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",51,,"Eigil Rischel","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:59:56.584Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",61,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T16:16:47.086Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",40,,"ShardPhoenix","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T00:13:07.100Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",61,,"Pablo","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T15:59:47.397Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",43,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T16:16:29.606Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",42,,"MinusGix","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T14:21:25.217Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",50,,"Oscilllator","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-27T08:57:41.661Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",63,,"TurnTrout","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T15:23:09.784Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",54,,"Pablo","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T15:44:57.164Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",59,,"AnthonyC","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T16:52:17.535Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",68,,"Hazard","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T14:37:52.333Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",76,,"Charbel-Raphaël Segerie","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T17:09:41.127Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",33,,"DanielFilan","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T07:09:03.964Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",65,,"Owain_Evans","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T17:16:07.029Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",75,,"VermillionStuka","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T06:03:55.530Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",66,,"Andreas S","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T16:58:27.802Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",60,,"habryka","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T18:20:09.935Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",66,,"Pablo","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T15:45:00.634Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",66,,"Rudi C","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T16:42:01.510Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",68,,"Yoav Ravid","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-05T08:16:07.231Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",38,,"jacobjacob","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T05:31:13.205Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",37,,"niplav","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T19:45:58.506Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",75,,"Davidmanheim","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:41:08.076Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",32,,"jacobjacob","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T05:31:14.960Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",70,,"dxu","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T04:02:05.177Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",74,,"gt22","Pablo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-17T19:25:48.596Z","2020-11-21T12:18:48.238Z","2021-07-01T03:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",60,,"Pialgo","Amanda N",,"","AI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T09:30:41.484Z","2020-11-21T23:44:21.993Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",15,,"matthew.vandermerwe","Amanda N",,"","AI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T18:33:55.677Z","2020-11-21T23:44:21.993Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",95,,"riceissa","Amanda N",,"","AI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T21:03:26.665Z","2020-11-21T23:44:21.993Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",50,,"rohinmshah","Amanda N",,"","AI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T16:45:24.587Z","2020-11-21T23:44:21.993Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",25,,"rohinmshah","Amanda N",,"","AI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T16:45:24.130Z","2020-11-21T23:44:21.993Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",81,,"Telofy","Amanda N",,"","AI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:53:15.275Z","2020-11-21T23:44:21.993Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",55,,"SoerenMind","Amanda N",,"","AI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:53:00.722Z","2020-11-21T23:44:21.993Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",40,,"Alex Ray","Amanda N",,"","AI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:16:08.625Z","2020-11-21T23:44:21.993Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",20,,"rohinmshah","Amanda N",,"","AI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-05T22:03:49.751Z","2020-11-21T23:44:21.993Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",30,,"rohinmshah","Amanda N",,"","AI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-05T22:02:52.442Z","2020-11-21T23:44:21.993Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",40,,"rohinmshah","Amanda N",,"","AI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-05T22:02:18.345Z","2020-11-21T23:44:21.993Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",70,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T00:51:20.736Z","2020-11-21T23:44:21.993Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",60,,"Mikhail Samin","Amanda N",,"","AI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T12:15:55.788Z","2020-11-21T23:44:21.993Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",50,,"SamuelKnoche","Amanda N",,"","AI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T08:23:15.028Z","2020-11-21T23:44:21.993Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",20,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","AI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:57:01.491Z","2020-11-21T23:44:21.993Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",48,,"Rafael Harth","Amanda N",,"","AI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T11:15:31.743Z","2020-11-21T23:44:21.993Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",50,,"adamShimi","Amanda N",,"","AI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:43:44.891Z","2020-11-21T23:44:21.993Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",11,,"akaTrickster","Amanda N",,"","AI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T17:29:30.047Z","2020-11-21T23:44:21.993Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",70,,"meanderingmoose","Amanda N",,"","AI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T15:41:08.846Z","2020-11-21T23:44:21.993Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",35,,"Dach","Amanda N",,"","AI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T06:32:48.097Z","2020-11-21T23:44:21.993Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",80,,"Adam Scholl","Amanda N",,"","AI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T21:35:03.017Z","2020-11-21T23:44:21.993Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",18,,"Andreas S","Amanda N",,"","AI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T01:24:58.451Z","2020-11-21T23:44:21.993Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",56,,"Hjalmar_Wijk","Amanda N",,"","AI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T15:04:03.710Z","2020-11-21T23:44:21.993Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",56,,"peterbarnett","Amanda N",,"","AI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:54:21.957Z","2020-11-21T23:44:21.993Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",10,,"digital_carver","Amanda N",,"","AI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T11:20:28.375Z","2020-11-21T23:44:21.993Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",50,,"Teerth Aloke","Amanda N",,"","AI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T13:06:28.350Z","2020-11-21T23:44:21.993Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",70,,"dregntael","Amanda N",,"","AI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-13T08:41:15.420Z","2020-11-21T23:44:21.993Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",71,,"dregntael","Amanda N",,"","AI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-13T08:41:13.761Z","2020-11-21T23:44:21.993Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",10,,"alokja","Amanda N",,"","AI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T22:03:09.700Z","2020-11-21T23:44:21.993Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",12,,"alokja","Amanda N",,"","AI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T22:03:19.993Z","2020-11-21T23:44:21.993Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",90,,"Robert Lynn","Amanda N",,"","AI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T09:32:47.189Z","2020-11-21T23:44:21.993Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",30,,"Felipe Calero Forero","Amanda N",,"","AI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T09:54:00.279Z","2020-11-21T23:44:21.993Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",65,,"teradimich","Amanda N",,"","AI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T23:05:44.482Z","2020-11-21T23:44:21.993Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",55,,"Jeffrey Yun","Amanda N",,"","AI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-02T19:28:31.559Z","2020-11-21T23:44:21.993Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035.  ",1,,"bobpage","NathanMcKnight","Noise pollution, early singularity/collapse, and probably not the best solution for shuttling people around big cities.  Some kind of personal pod transport seems a lot more practical.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-11T23:58:15.000Z","2011-11-11T22:41:40.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035.  ",1,,"ygert","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-12-28T09:25:48.000Z","2011-11-11T22:41:40.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035.  ",3,,"Pablo","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T16:56:39.000Z","2011-11-11T22:41:40.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035.  ",0,,"Ken","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-18T15:04:53.000Z","2011-11-11T22:41:40.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035.  ",3,,"Cy Fleming","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-20T05:00:26.000Z","2011-11-11T22:41:40.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035.  ",9,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-21T20:53:57.000Z","2011-11-11T22:41:40.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035.  ",5,,"pranomostro","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:42:58.028Z","2011-11-11T22:41:40.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035.  ",4,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight","Not enough time.  Also, travel by swarms of drones will come first imho.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T21:10:07.000Z","2011-11-11T22:41:40.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035.  ",5,,"roshni","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-23T16:12:04.000Z","2011-11-11T22:41:40.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035.  ",0,,"fork","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-12T05:42:27.000Z","2011-11-11T22:41:40.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035.  ",15,,"Jayson Virissimo","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-15T12:24:00.000Z","2011-11-11T22:41:40.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035.  ",3,,"Tuxedage","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-12-28T17:15:55.000Z","2011-11-11T22:41:40.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035.  ",0,,"Tiresias","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-20T06:38:38.000Z","2011-11-11T22:41:40.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035.  ",5,,"chemotaxis101","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-15T20:18:12.000Z","2011-11-11T22:41:40.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035.  ",0,,"deleteyourbrain","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:35:38.504Z","2011-11-11T22:41:40.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035.  ",20,,"RobertLumley","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-18T14:13:39.000Z","2011-11-11T22:41:40.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035.  ",60,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-11T22:41:40.000Z","2011-11-11T22:41:40.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035.  ",5,,"RandomThinker","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-06T19:50:28.000Z","2011-11-11T22:41:40.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035.  ",0,,"muflax","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-12T00:53:01.000Z","2011-11-11T22:41:40.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035.  ",12,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-15T20:25:33.000Z","2011-11-11T22:41:40.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035.  ",5,,"Michael Dickens","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-16T06:38:25.000Z","2011-11-11T22:41:40.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035.  ",20,,"Anubhav","NathanMcKnight","Ah, that wasn't clear earlier; bobpage was talking about rail-borne systems. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-12T05:18:56.000Z","2011-11-11T22:41:40.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035.  ",15,,"lavalamp","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-11T23:10:29.000Z","2011-11-11T22:41:40.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035.  ",10,,"kilobug","NathanMcKnight","20% was even too high...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-19T09:35:12.000Z","2011-11-11T22:41:40.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035.  ",20,,"dr_freezy","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T09:37:28.000Z","2011-11-11T22:41:40.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035.  ",4,,"faws","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-18T13:24:08.000Z","2011-11-11T22:41:40.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035.  ",20,,"kilobug","NathanMcKnight","I'm more seeing underground public transport (metro, Asimov' like, ...) for the future transportation in major cities. Flying cars seem too energy inefficient for short distances.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-19T09:34:42.000Z","2011-11-11T22:41:40.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035.  ",10,,"gwern","NathanMcKnight","flying cars have many issues; as cities get more packed, the issues become more severe",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-11T23:17:04.000Z","2011-11-11T22:41:40.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035.  ",3,,"Sniffnoy","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-23T03:19:59.000Z","2011-11-11T22:41:40.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035.  ",5,,"roxton","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-25T20:07:00.000Z","2011-11-11T22:41:40.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035.  ",10,,"RandomThinker","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-06T19:47:11.000Z","2011-11-11T22:41:40.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",90,,"Jayson Virissimo","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T12:04:14.000Z","2011-09-04T20:27:32.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",85,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-04T20:27:32.000Z","2011-09-04T20:27:32.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",94,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-03T22:05:41.383Z","2011-09-04T20:27:32.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",64,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T02:31:56.000Z","2011-09-04T20:27:32.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",5,,"Raahul_Kumar","JoshuaZ","Only 4 years left, unlikely.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-17T12:08:18.000Z","2011-09-04T20:27:32.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",90,,"rebellionkid","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-06-23T17:11:49.000Z","2011-09-04T20:27:32.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",90,,"ChristianKl","JoshuaZ","99% for the cold war is overconfident. There are US generals that wanted to use nuke in Viatnam (http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/JD17Ae01.html) . There were also multiple other points with high danger of nuke use.  ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-29T17:12:24.000Z","2011-09-04T20:27:32.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",80,,"simplicio","JoshuaZ","BlackHumor: whence that number for the Cold War?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-28T20:54:38.000Z","2011-09-04T20:27:32.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",80,,"RandomThinker","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-28T02:55:10.000Z","2011-09-04T20:27:32.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",92,,"RandomThinker","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-01T20:30:06.000Z","2011-09-04T20:27:32.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",95,,"muflax","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-26T21:18:38.000Z","2011-09-04T20:27:32.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",85,,"gwern","JoshuaZ","lots of potential spark points like india, north korea, china... but I wouldn't give >5% to any of them, so a 15% total seems reasonable",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-04T23:14:03.000Z","2011-09-04T20:27:32.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",87,,"Pablo","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-29T23:17:43.000Z","2011-09-04T20:27:32.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",95,,"Baeboo","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-04T03:28:28.191Z","2011-09-04T20:27:32.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",1,,"kish","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-10T17:03:12.000Z","2011-09-04T20:27:32.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",99,,"Anubhav","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T13:18:02.000Z","2011-09-04T20:27:32.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",99,,"BlackHumor","JoshuaZ","Actually should be more nines after that. It was over 99% during the friggin' Cold War, it can't have gone UP.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-04T04:23:02.000Z","2011-09-04T20:27:32.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",90,,"moozilla","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-02T07:10:39.000Z","2011-09-04T20:27:32.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",75,,"gimpf","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-13T10:51:21.000Z","2011-09-04T20:27:32.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",92,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-03T21:43:44.902Z","2011-09-04T20:27:32.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",92,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T20:48:33.000Z","2011-09-04T20:27:32.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",91,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-11T03:40:01.000Z","2011-09-04T20:27:32.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",90,,"fergus","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-05T03:28:34.000Z","2011-09-04T20:27:32.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",70,,"Robert Kosten","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-11T17:57:08.000Z","2011-09-04T20:27:32.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",90,,"Ken","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-10T16:45:05.000Z","2011-09-04T20:27:32.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",85,,"bobpage","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-17T15:51:07.000Z","2011-09-04T20:27:32.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",80,,"Gedusa","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-14T10:53:26.000Z","2011-09-04T20:27:32.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",89,,"Serge","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-18T07:50:45.000Z","2011-09-04T20:27:32.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",84,,"Konkvistador","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-23T16:19:14.000Z","2011-09-04T20:27:32.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",94,,"faws","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-23T19:14:51.000Z","2011-09-04T20:27:32.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",85,,"Alexander Kruel","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-05T14:19:24.000Z","2011-09-04T20:27:32.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",90,,"Malgidus","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-27T22:27:44.000Z","2011-09-04T20:27:32.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",100,,"Pablo","komponisto",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T19:41:58.737Z","2009-10-17T19:03:16.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",99,,"Tuxedage","komponisto",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-16T07:11:33.000Z","2009-10-17T19:03:16.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",99,,"komponisto","komponisto",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-17T19:48:44.000Z","2009-10-17T19:03:16.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",70,,"DanArmak","komponisto",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-17T20:12:04.000Z","2009-10-17T19:03:16.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",98,,"Larks","komponisto",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-17T20:24:55.000Z","2009-10-17T19:03:16.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",99,,"Robin Z.","komponisto",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-17T20:42:57.000Z","2009-10-17T19:03:16.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",95,,"Larks","komponisto",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-29T21:42:35.000Z","2009-10-17T19:03:16.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",98,,"datadataeverywhere","komponisto",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-30T01:43:25.000Z","2009-10-17T19:03:16.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",90,,"viveutvivas","komponisto",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-15T21:29:53.000Z","2009-10-17T19:03:16.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",90,,"Jayson Virissimo","komponisto",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-15T22:11:28.000Z","2009-10-17T19:03:16.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",94,,"tylercurtis","komponisto",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-15T23:45:51.000Z","2009-10-17T19:03:16.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",99,,"atroche","komponisto",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-26T06:13:40.000Z","2009-10-17T19:03:16.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",95,,"btrettel","komponisto",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-26T18:38:22.000Z","2009-10-17T19:03:16.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",90,,"themusicgod1","komponisto",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T02:06:28.000Z","2009-10-17T19:03:16.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",97,,"JoshuaZ","komponisto",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T10:46:44.000Z","2009-10-17T19:03:16.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",90,,"gwern","komponisto",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-26T16:34:36.000Z","2009-10-17T19:03:16.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",95,,"Tobias","komponisto",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-26T22:24:46.000Z","2009-10-17T19:03:16.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",95,,"JoshuaZ","komponisto",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-16T14:00:18.000Z","2009-10-17T19:03:16.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",90,,"RandomThinker","komponisto",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-16T15:18:28.000Z","2009-10-17T19:03:16.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",87,,"holycow81","komponisto",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-27T03:09:32.000Z","2009-10-17T19:03:16.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",90,,"atroche","komponisto",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-13T19:17:24.000Z","2009-10-17T19:03:16.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",80,,"from3004","komponisto","Adjusting for wishful thinking as well as drone advancements",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-16T20:08:55.000Z","2009-10-17T19:03:16.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",99,,"rebellionkid","komponisto",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-17T00:31:19.000Z","2009-10-17T19:03:16.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",97,,"Baeboo","komponisto",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-25T04:40:21.000Z","2009-10-17T19:03:16.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",90,,"pranomostro","komponisto",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T23:26:22.000Z","2009-10-17T19:03:16.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",98,,"Baeboo","komponisto",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-26T03:53:21.000Z","2009-10-17T19:03:16.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",100,,"deleteyourbrain","komponisto",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:09:39.700Z","2009-10-17T19:03:16.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",3,,"jshiga","komponisto",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-19T23:01:19.000Z","2009-10-17T19:03:16.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",90,,"Arenamontanus","komponisto",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-19T13:07:47.000Z","2009-10-17T19:03:16.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",97,,"anonym","komponisto",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-17T22:02:39.000Z","2009-10-17T19:03:16.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",75,,"othercriteria","komponisto",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-17T20:29:19.000Z","2009-10-17T19:03:16.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",95,,"Cyan","komponisto",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-17T20:24:29.000Z","2009-10-17T19:03:16.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",95,,"komponisto","komponisto",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-17T19:03:17.000Z","2009-10-17T19:03:16.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",0,,"NickN","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T00:25:21.662Z","2009-10-17T18:08:29.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",1,,"DanArmak","TheScholar","The only way this'll happen is if humanity (and any descendants capable of being religious) go extinct before 2030.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-17T20:13:17.000Z","2009-10-17T18:08:29.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",3,,"Larks","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-17T20:23:51.000Z","2009-10-17T18:08:29.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",1,,"Arenamontanus","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-19T13:08:22.000Z","2009-10-17T18:08:29.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",10,,"ledflyd","TheScholar","If humans are still around, I think that some church will have power... whether this is still Catholicism (doubtful), Islam (maybe) or scientology.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-11-16T21:15:51.000Z","2009-10-17T18:08:29.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",99,,"MrHen","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-02-03T15:53:47.000Z","2009-10-17T18:08:29.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",1,,"MrHen","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-02-03T15:54:28.000Z","2009-10-17T18:08:29.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",1,,"gwern","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-16T11:46:53.000Z","2009-10-17T18:08:29.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",1,,"JoshuaZ","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-26T19:09:56.000Z","2009-10-17T18:08:29.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",1,,"Malgidus","TheScholar","Existential risk only. I think they will diminish, but not by more than 50%.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-27T22:14:17.000Z","2009-10-17T18:08:29.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",0,,"telegrafista","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-14T16:08:00.617Z","2009-10-17T18:08:29.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",1,,"Baeboo","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-26T03:51:50.000Z","2009-10-17T18:08:29.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",1,,"pranomostro","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T23:25:39.000Z","2009-10-17T18:08:29.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",1,,"two2thehead","TheScholar","Wanted to post 0 but I choose to hedge my bets.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-21T03:10:38.000Z","2009-10-17T18:08:29.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",1,,"anonym","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-17T21:38:55.000Z","2009-10-17T18:08:29.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",0,,"PlacidPlatypus","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-11T16:51:57.000Z","2009-10-17T18:08:29.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",0,,"jesselevine","TheScholar","Okay then. Humanity will definitely still be around in 2030 in my opinion.. I believe people are a little overly apacolyptic these days ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-11T15:36:03.000Z","2009-10-17T18:08:29.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",9,,"themusicgod1","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-11T03:44:30.000Z","2009-10-17T18:08:29.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",0,,"Unknowns","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-27T04:16:21.000Z","2009-10-17T18:08:29.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",1,,"Nic_Smith","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-08T04:01:08.000Z","2009-10-17T18:08:29.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",10,,"olimay","TheScholar","The destruction of humanity and other subjectively extreme scenarios would trivially fulfill this prediction.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-11-26T01:10:37.000Z","2009-10-17T18:08:29.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",0,,"trismet","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-17T21:26:32.000Z","2009-10-17T18:08:29.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",1,,"othercriteria","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-11-15T19:35:58.000Z","2009-10-17T18:08:29.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",1,,"faws","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-22T17:22:11.000Z","2009-10-17T18:08:29.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",0,,"Jack","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-18T08:57:33.000Z","2009-10-17T18:08:29.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",0,,"Robin Z.","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-17T20:43:44.000Z","2009-10-17T18:08:29.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",99,,"TheScholar","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-17T18:08:30.000Z","2009-10-17T18:08:29.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",0,,"deleteyourbrain","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:11:22.841Z","2009-10-17T18:08:29.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034",1,,"xfbs","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-27T22:14:18.000Z","2016-12-10T01:14:31.000Z","2034-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034",0,,"gwern","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-01T16:27:27.000Z","2016-12-10T01:14:31.000Z","2034-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034",0,,"playablecharacter","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-02T21:28:23.000Z","2016-12-10T01:14:31.000Z","2034-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034",1,,"Rob Bednark","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-07T01:34:41.000Z","2016-12-10T01:14:31.000Z","2034-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034",0,,"Temeraire","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-19T00:09:58.000Z","2016-12-10T01:14:31.000Z","2034-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034",0,,"jamesrom","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-01T02:29:53.000Z","2016-12-10T01:14:31.000Z","2034-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034",0,,"Baeboo","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-14T06:59:11.000Z","2016-12-10T01:14:31.000Z","2034-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034",0,,"Cato","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-06T05:35:41.804Z","2016-12-10T01:14:31.000Z","2034-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034",0,,"deleteyourbrain","bobpage","bahahahahahahahahahaha",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T01:26:16.697Z","2016-12-10T01:14:31.000Z","2034-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034",0,,"krazemon","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-11T15:23:57.887Z","2016-12-10T01:14:31.000Z","2034-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034",0,,"AlexLamson","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-30T20:53:46.351Z","2016-12-10T01:14:31.000Z","2034-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034",0,,"Michal_Dubrawski","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-24T17:12:05.555Z","2016-12-10T01:14:31.000Z","2034-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034",0,,"bomeor","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-17T18:53:58.563Z","2016-12-10T01:14:31.000Z","2034-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034",1,,"bobpage","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-10T01:14:31.000Z","2016-12-10T01:14:31.000Z","2034-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034",1,,"two2thehead","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-10T02:22:14.000Z","2016-12-10T01:14:31.000Z","2034-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034",0,,"Bruno Parga","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-31T07:00:12.000Z","2016-12-10T01:14:31.000Z","2034-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034",0,,"WilliamBerkeley","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-13T02:53:44.000Z","2016-12-10T01:14:31.000Z","2034-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034",0,,"ioannes","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-15T21:03:58.000Z","2016-12-10T01:14:31.000Z","2034-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034",0,,"daccount10","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-22T06:23:38.000Z","2016-12-10T01:14:31.000Z","2034-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034",0,,"Medea","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-15T16:07:32.000Z","2016-12-10T01:14:31.000Z","2034-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034",0,,"timmartin","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-04T15:17:36.000Z","2016-12-10T01:14:31.000Z","2034-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034",0,,"peter_hurford","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-01-08T03:08:44.000Z","2016-12-10T01:14:31.000Z","2034-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034",1,,"pranomostro","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-02T20:50:16.000Z","2016-12-10T01:14:31.000Z","2034-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034",0,,"bcongdon","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T04:42:24.379Z","2016-12-10T01:14:31.000Z","2034-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034",1,,"themusicgod1","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-10T22:55:55.000Z","2016-12-10T01:14:31.000Z","2034-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034",0,,"Dapple","bobpage","I'm surprised at y'all giving greater than 1/200 odds. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-11T22:02:00.000Z","2016-12-10T01:14:31.000Z","2034-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",30,,"Pablo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T11:44:37.571Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",4,,"Max_Daniel","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:41:44.679Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",33,,"Mark Xu","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:11:10.851Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",60,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T18:35:19.556Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",50,,"David Pape","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T14:56:50.185Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",10,,"Eli Lifland","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:11:34.582Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",50,,"RowanE","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:41:55.609Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",30,,"Vanilla_cabs","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:38:22.361Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",70,,"Vanilla_cabs","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:36:51.727Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",18,,"Oskar Press Mathiasen","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:33:28.150Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",80,,"Rafael Harth","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:17:54.528Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",21,,"avturchin","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:46:33.432Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",25,,"NunoSempere","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:18:25.019Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",30,,"Ozyrus","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:06:54.802Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",20,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:28:40.169Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",56,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:28:36.368Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",55,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:26:59.171Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",19,,"Lanrian","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:51:09.279Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",17,,"Lanrian","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:51:08.303Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",20,,"Lanrian","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:51:07.457Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",16,,"Lanrian","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:51:06.552Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",18,,"Lanrian","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:51:06.193Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",20,,"Lanrian","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:51:05.080Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",25,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:41:27.653Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",1,,"Kevin Lacker","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:20:59.409Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",38,,"TurnTrout","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:56:28.640Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",40,,"TurnTrout","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:56:22.496Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",50,,"Gurkenglas","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:22:37.081Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",33,,"Gurkenglas","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:22:28.544Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",60,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:19:10.508Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",56,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:19:08.924Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",60,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:18:43.995Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",65,,"jimrandomh","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:18:57.706Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",50,,"jacobjacob","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:16:17.098Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",37,,"Raemon","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:16:06.283Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",48,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:43:22.808Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",50,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:43:20.402Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",56,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:43:11.667Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",54,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:08:20.847Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",65,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:08:13.802Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",58,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:08:11.379Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",92,,"ete","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:00:29.833Z","2020-11-20T18:41:37.096Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021",0,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-18T00:42:55.797Z","2016-11-13T12:29:20.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021",0,,"Dapple","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-15T02:41:20.000Z","2016-11-13T12:29:20.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021",0,,"NickN","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T02:52:21.462Z","2016-11-13T12:29:20.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021",0,,"Bruno Parga","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T12:24:54.978Z","2016-11-13T12:29:20.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021",0,,"Baeboo","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T04:43:56.727Z","2016-11-13T12:29:20.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021",1,,"two2thehead","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-19T07:34:28.000Z","2016-11-13T12:29:20.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021",1,,"EloiseRosen","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-26T01:49:25.000Z","2016-11-13T12:29:20.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021",1,,"Bruno Parga","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-23T02:56:58.000Z","2016-11-13T12:29:20.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021",1,,"lavalamp","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-13T06:49:27.000Z","2016-11-13T12:29:20.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021",0,,"sdr","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-04-07T07:39:11.000Z","2016-11-13T12:29:20.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021",1,,"Medea","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-15T16:07:58.000Z","2016-11-13T12:29:20.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021",0,,"peter_hurford","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-01-08T03:08:25.000Z","2016-11-13T12:29:20.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021",3,,"pranomostro","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-02T20:50:38.000Z","2016-11-13T12:29:20.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021",0,,"Baeboo","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-03T21:37:19.000Z","2016-11-13T12:29:20.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021",0,,"Cato","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-06T05:33:21.036Z","2016-11-13T12:29:20.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021",2,,"JoshuaZ","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T19:11:10.746Z","2016-11-13T12:29:20.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021",0,,"AlexLamson","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-06-02T12:28:46.231Z","2016-11-13T12:29:20.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021",1,,"qznc","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-15T18:22:21.287Z","2016-11-13T12:29:20.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021",1,,"bobpage","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-13T12:29:20.000Z","2016-11-13T12:29:20.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021",1,,"themusicgod1","bobpage","http://predictionbook.com/predictions/180207",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-13T22:08:42.000Z","2016-11-13T12:29:20.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021",1,,"trishume","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-18T20:58:19.000Z","2016-11-13T12:29:20.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021",1,,"pkfalu92","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-19T18:18:50.000Z","2016-11-13T12:29:20.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021",1,,"Jayson Virissimo","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-25T02:52:57.000Z","2016-11-13T12:29:20.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021",1,,"ioannes","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-09T22:33:06.000Z","2016-11-13T12:29:20.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021",1,,"JoshuaZ","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-13T03:18:03.000Z","2016-11-13T12:29:20.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021",0,,"gwern","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-28T18:01:52.000Z","2016-11-13T12:29:20.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021",1,,"JoshuaZ","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-13T20:14:34.000Z","2016-11-13T12:29:20.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021",1,,"Tenobrus","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-09T03:22:48.000Z","2016-11-13T12:29:20.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021",2,,"JoshuaZ","bobpage","Updating, looks more likely now. If a second Trump Presidential win happens with Trump again winning the electoral but not popular vote then this becomes not that crazy. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-27T01:36:56.000Z","2016-11-13T12:29:20.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021",0,,"sdr","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-10-19T03:10:16.000Z","2016-11-13T12:29:20.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021",0,,"deleteyourbrain","bobpage","ah",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T01:26:50.902Z","2016-11-13T12:29:20.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021",1,,"Baeboo","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-27T05:11:02.990Z","2016-11-13T12:29:20.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021",0,,"AlexLamson","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-30T20:56:24.346Z","2016-11-13T12:29:20.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021",0,,"bomeor","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-17T18:53:38.863Z","2016-11-13T12:29:20.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",10,,"davatk","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-16T23:35:24.857Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",5,,"pranomostro","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:29:53.203Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",15,,"Andrew MacFie","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-07T17:37:19.156Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",5,,"jazzsolo","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-05T07:36:59.482Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",18,,"Baeboo","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-04T02:35:06.234Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",22,,"Jennifer","playablecharacter","Since 1900, 3 in 20 presidents have won it: not normal ones. Trump isn't normal. And no ""anti-prize"" exists for accidentally causing war to ""bring balance"" to the question... If Korea works out then maaaybe?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-03T07:18:39.370Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",2,,"pranomostro","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-19T09:52:32.000Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",20,,"avi","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-06-17T06:09:21.000Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",5,,"moyamo","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-06-12T11:49:23.000Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",5,,"Medea","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-06-08T11:09:15.000Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",20,,"kiimberlie","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-16T19:39:00.000Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",2,,"Michael Dickens","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-14T04:01:19.000Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",8,,"lukefreeman","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-11T05:07:33.000Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",10,,"avi","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-08T22:26:33.000Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",20,,"gallerdude","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-08T04:03:29.000Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",4,,"Hate9","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-07T22:31:56.000Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",20,,"kmcharliecat","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-07T10:41:23.000Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",10,,"Jotto999","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-06T14:44:15.000Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",8,,"JTPeterson","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-03T19:30:44.000Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",3,,"Athrithalix","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-03T08:01:20.000Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",20,,"playablecharacter","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",2,,"stepan","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-24T17:42:42.877Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",2,,"Andrew MacFie","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-26T16:11:50.079Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",1,,"aarongertler","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-06T04:10:51.462Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",15,,"Baeboo","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-10-06T16:29:47.000Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",30,,"Andrew MacFie","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-06-18T21:58:14.000Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",15,,"JoshuaZ","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-06-15T02:49:53.000Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",5,,"JTPeterson","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-06-12T03:33:33.000Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",25,,"lettergram","playablecharacter","Don't understand the Obama Nobel when comparing to those other three presidents contributions. Trump actually is comparable, although widely hated... (hence lower confidence)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-16T12:23:19.000Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",9,,"Baeboo","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-07T18:34:33.000Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",9,,"ccokeefe","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-06T02:06:01.000Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",20,,"davatk","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-04T15:42:58.000Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",10,,"crabman","playablecharacter","https://www.quora.com/How-many-U-S-presidents-have-been-awarded-a-Nobel-Prize",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-04T11:13:20.000Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",12,,"JoshuaZ","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-03T19:10:34.000Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",10,,"Matthew_Barnett","playablecharacter","Trump is a very low status person in Western liberal and leftist media",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-03T05:39:03.000Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",1,,"avi","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-06T01:23:10.248Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",2,,"Baeboo","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-27T02:10:20.366Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins Nobel",1,,"Baeboo","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T05:11:00.632Z","2018-05-03T05:33:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.",0,,"VincentYu","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-16T01:48:52.000Z","2014-08-12T16:44:07.000Z","2024-08-12T16:44:07.000Z"
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.",1,,"gimpf","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-08-31T09:29:53.000Z","2014-08-12T16:44:07.000Z","2024-08-12T16:44:07.000Z"
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.",3,,"lavalamp","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-08-21T23:27:23.000Z","2014-08-12T16:44:07.000Z","2024-08-12T16:44:07.000Z"
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.",0,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T03:19:00.633Z","2014-08-12T16:44:07.000Z","2024-08-12T16:44:07.000Z"
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.",3,,"Michael Dickens","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-08-17T17:40:45.000Z","2014-08-12T16:44:07.000Z","2024-08-12T16:44:07.000Z"
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.",10,,"TeMPOraL","gwern","Define ""official"".",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-08-14T23:48:50.000Z","2014-08-12T16:44:07.000Z","2024-08-12T16:44:07.000Z"
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.",1,,"Peteris","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-05T10:30:00.000Z","2014-08-12T16:44:07.000Z","2024-08-12T16:44:07.000Z"
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.",1,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-08-12T16:44:07.000Z","2014-08-12T16:44:07.000Z","2024-08-12T16:44:07.000Z"
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.",1,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-04T23:24:26.000Z","2014-08-12T16:44:07.000Z","2024-08-12T16:44:07.000Z"
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.",1,,"Medea","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-21T11:26:29.000Z","2014-08-12T16:44:07.000Z","2024-08-12T16:44:07.000Z"
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.",3,,"equivrel","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-14T00:16:07.000Z","2014-08-12T16:44:07.000Z","2024-08-12T16:44:07.000Z"
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","gwern","Satoshi Nakomoto and the bitcoin contributors are not working for either organization.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-06T04:48:20.000Z","2014-08-12T16:44:07.000Z","2024-08-12T16:44:07.000Z"
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.",1,,"bobpage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-04T02:09:16.000Z","2014-08-12T16:44:07.000Z","2024-08-12T16:44:07.000Z"
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.",1,,"EloiseRosen","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-26T00:24:05.000Z","2014-08-12T16:44:07.000Z","2024-08-12T16:44:07.000Z"
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.",1,,"moridinamael","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-07T17:43:39.000Z","2014-08-12T16:44:07.000Z","2024-08-12T16:44:07.000Z"
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.",2,,"Serge","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-15T13:46:19.000Z","2014-08-12T16:44:07.000Z","2024-08-12T16:44:07.000Z"
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.",1,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T03:31:12.616Z","2014-08-12T16:44:07.000Z","2024-08-12T16:44:07.000Z"
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.",1,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T23:19:10.000Z","2014-08-12T16:44:07.000Z","2024-08-12T16:44:07.000Z"
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.",0,,"two2thehead","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-20T05:06:10.000Z","2014-08-12T16:44:07.000Z","2024-08-12T16:44:07.000Z"
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.",0,,"leo_gri","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-21T18:38:03.000Z","2014-08-12T16:44:07.000Z","2024-08-12T16:44:07.000Z"
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.",7,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-11T03:38:01.000Z","2014-08-12T16:44:07.000Z","2024-08-12T16:44:07.000Z"
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.",5,,"davidmanheim","gwern","But if so, do you think we'd know by 2024?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-03T16:03:34.000Z","2014-08-12T16:44:07.000Z","2024-08-12T16:44:07.000Z"
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.",1,,"hampuslj","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-23T21:18:50.000Z","2014-08-12T16:44:07.000Z","2024-08-12T16:44:07.000Z"
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.",2,,"anonym","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-30T05:04:05.000Z","2014-08-12T16:44:07.000Z","2024-08-12T16:44:07.000Z"
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.",3,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-04T04:17:38.000Z","2014-08-12T16:44:07.000Z","2024-08-12T16:44:07.000Z"
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.",0,,"deleteyourbrain","gwern","yeah right. the nsa and cia wanted to undermine the dollar. son you are trippin.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-13T21:11:48.000Z","2014-08-12T16:44:07.000Z","2024-08-12T16:44:07.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",5,,"Oskar Press Mathiasen","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:33:30.581Z","2020-11-20T19:04:56.877Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",50,,"Gurkenglas","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:22:54.135Z","2020-11-20T19:04:56.877Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",48,,"Rafael Harth","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:32:13.627Z","2020-11-20T19:04:56.877Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",32,,"Lanrian","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:51:21.439Z","2020-11-20T19:04:56.877Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",50,,"NunoSempere","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:18:36.841Z","2020-11-20T19:04:56.877Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",66,,"Measure","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T18:35:27.672Z","2020-11-20T19:04:56.877Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",39,,"Lanrian","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:51:22.457Z","2020-11-20T19:04:56.877Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",36,,"Lanrian","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:51:23.611Z","2020-11-20T19:04:56.877Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",17,,"Max_Daniel","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:44:25.302Z","2020-11-20T19:04:56.877Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",50,,"Ozyrus","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:07:05.317Z","2020-11-20T19:04:56.877Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",23,,"Eli Lifland","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:11:37.529Z","2020-11-20T19:04:56.877Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",34,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:41:39.140Z","2020-11-20T19:04:56.877Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",20,,"Veedrac","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T09:28:41.968Z","2020-11-20T19:04:56.877Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",43,,"Pablo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T11:48:27.761Z","2020-11-20T19:04:56.877Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",38,,"Lanrian","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:51:24.521Z","2020-11-20T19:04:56.877Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",96,,"ete","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:01:12.804Z","2020-11-20T19:04:56.877Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",37,,"HunterJay","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:41:40.567Z","2020-11-20T19:04:56.877Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",1,,"Kevin Lacker","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:21:03.452Z","2020-11-20T19:04:56.877Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",59,,"TurnTrout","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:56:37.219Z","2020-11-20T19:04:56.877Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",37,,"jimrandomh","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:19:29.652Z","2020-11-20T19:04:56.877Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",39,,"Lanrian","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:51:25.582Z","2020-11-20T19:04:56.877Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",58,,"Raemon","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:16:05.209Z","2020-11-20T19:04:56.877Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",75,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:20:27.832Z","2020-11-20T19:04:56.877Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",88,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:43:40.691Z","2020-11-20T19:04:56.877Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",15,,"David Pape","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T14:57:13.060Z","2020-11-20T19:04:56.877Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",85,,"habryka","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:43:33.883Z","2020-11-20T19:04:56.877Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",75,,"Mark Xu","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:11:25.869Z","2020-11-20T19:04:56.877Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",45,,"Pablo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T11:45:54.501Z","2020-11-20T19:04:56.877Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",60,,"RowanE","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:42:04.395Z","2020-11-20T19:04:56.877Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",70,,"Ben Pace","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:20:34.936Z","2020-11-20T19:04:56.877Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",53,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:08:29.883Z","2020-11-20T19:04:56.877Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",55,,"Vanilla_cabs","Amanda N",,"","AGI predictions LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:38:31.233Z","2020-11-20T19:04:56.877Z","2500-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""",3,,"seifip","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-14T09:54:43.000Z","2011-10-07T20:59:34.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""",25,,"Artis","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-07T09:17:24.000Z","2011-10-07T20:59:34.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""",2,,"Baeboo","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T18:25:38.091Z","2011-10-07T20:59:34.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""",2,,"JoshuaZ","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T14:19:40.744Z","2011-10-07T20:59:34.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""",1,,"JoshuaZ","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T22:28:27.000Z","2011-10-07T20:59:34.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""",5,,"pranomostro","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:26:33.752Z","2011-10-07T20:59:34.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""",47,,"themusicgod1","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T04:16:09.000Z","2011-10-07T20:59:34.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""",1,,"JoshuaZ","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-21T20:58:06.000Z","2011-10-07T20:59:34.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""",0,,"Tuxedage","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-14T21:24:38.000Z","2011-10-07T20:59:34.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""",0,,"thaprophet","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-04T12:20:23.000Z","2011-10-07T20:59:34.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""",1,,"BrandonReinhart","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-12T05:46:43.000Z","2011-10-07T20:59:34.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""",1,,"faws","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-06T02:33:57.000Z","2011-10-07T20:59:34.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""",1,,"JFE","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-01T14:13:32.000Z","2011-10-07T20:59:34.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""",12,,"Serge","bobpage","I don't think so",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-16T10:58:34.000Z","2011-10-07T20:59:34.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""",99,,"Jayson Virissimo","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T09:26:24.000Z","2011-10-07T20:59:34.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""",2,,"JoshuaZ","bobpage","tags: [China][demographics][politics]",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-09T18:55:57.000Z","2011-10-07T20:59:34.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""",2,,"Kaj_Sotala","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-08T17:23:13.000Z","2011-10-07T20:59:34.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""",15,,"mat33","bobpage","I don't really know what would be China in a few years.  But this kind of folly looks just remotely plausible, as it's consistent whith the China traditions and red&brown worldview.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-08T16:07:16.000Z","2011-10-07T20:59:34.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""",1,,"bobpage","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T20:59:34.000Z","2011-10-07T20:59:34.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""",0,,"Pablo","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T19:14:16.414Z","2011-10-07T20:59:34.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""",0,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-29T09:55:25.579Z","2011-10-07T20:59:34.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""",1,,"galen","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-29T07:53:11.682Z","2011-10-07T20:59:34.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""",10,,"gwern","bobpage","yes, I’m sure they will happily sabotage their economy to deal with a minor leak of women… (not 1% because there is a serious political streak of xenophobia in China)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T21:19:34.000Z","2011-10-07T20:59:34.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""",1,,"Sniffnoy","bobpage","I'm using a narrow notion of ""special cases"" here. I'd go down to 95% using a broader notion.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-08T22:44:33.000Z","2011-10-07T20:59:34.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""",15,,"Robert Kosten","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-09T10:58:03.000Z","2011-10-07T20:59:34.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""",5,,"Anubhav","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T13:42:13.000Z","2011-10-07T20:59:34.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",0,,"deleteyourbrain","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T02:53:45.378Z","2017-03-17T19:21:17.000Z","2037-03-17T19:21:16.000Z"
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",6,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T03:06:05.456Z","2017-03-17T19:21:17.000Z","2037-03-17T19:21:16.000Z"
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",15,,"davatk","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-26T16:39:32.000Z","2017-03-17T19:21:17.000Z","2037-03-17T19:21:16.000Z"
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",4,,"Athrithalix","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-03-14T13:02:25.000Z","2017-03-17T19:21:17.000Z","2037-03-17T19:21:16.000Z"
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",8,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-22T00:42:42.000Z","2017-03-17T19:21:17.000Z","2037-03-17T19:21:16.000Z"
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",4,,"pvoberstein","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-21T19:42:17.000Z","2017-03-17T19:21:17.000Z","2037-03-17T19:21:16.000Z"
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",7,,"kiimberlie","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-16T19:46:07.000Z","2017-03-17T19:21:17.000Z","2037-03-17T19:21:16.000Z"
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",9,,"ccokeefe","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-20T21:37:53.000Z","2017-03-17T19:21:17.000Z","2037-03-17T19:21:16.000Z"
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",12,,"pkfalu92","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-01T18:18:12.000Z","2017-03-17T19:21:17.000Z","2037-03-17T19:21:16.000Z"
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",12,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-23T13:51:29.000Z","2017-03-17T19:21:17.000Z","2037-03-17T19:21:16.000Z"
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",6,,"KnaveOfAllTrades","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-19T20:40:46.000Z","2017-03-17T19:21:17.000Z","2037-03-17T19:21:16.000Z"
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",13,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-18T17:49:28.000Z","2017-03-17T19:21:17.000Z","2037-03-17T19:21:16.000Z"
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",5,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-19T09:43:58.000Z","2017-03-17T19:21:17.000Z","2037-03-17T19:21:16.000Z"
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",2,,"bomeor","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-07T23:20:05.000Z","2017-03-17T19:21:17.000Z","2037-03-17T19:21:16.000Z"
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",10,,"Shannon","gwern","If Elizabeth II wanted to abdicate, she almost certainly would have done it before now.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-20T20:09:26.000Z","2017-03-17T19:21:17.000Z","2037-03-17T19:21:16.000Z"
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",20,,"Medea","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-15T16:06:14.000Z","2017-03-17T19:21:17.000Z","2037-03-17T19:21:16.000Z"
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",15,,"earfluffy","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-31T00:33:43.000Z","2017-03-17T19:21:17.000Z","2037-03-17T19:21:16.000Z"
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",3,,"Bruno Parga","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-24T19:51:24.000Z","2017-03-17T19:21:17.000Z","2037-03-17T19:21:16.000Z"
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",3,,"orionstein","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-22T15:59:30.000Z","2017-03-17T19:21:17.000Z","2037-03-17T19:21:16.000Z"
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",2,,"KnaveOfAllTrades","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-21T17:50:46.000Z","2017-03-17T19:21:17.000Z","2037-03-17T19:21:16.000Z"
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",3,,"danielfilan","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-21T01:49:21.000Z","2017-03-17T19:21:17.000Z","2037-03-17T19:21:16.000Z"
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",10,,"ioannes","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-17T19:25:26.000Z","2017-03-17T19:21:17.000Z","2037-03-17T19:21:16.000Z"
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",15,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-17T19:21:17.000Z","2017-03-17T19:21:17.000Z","2037-03-17T19:21:16.000Z"
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",5,,"qznc","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-15T18:19:55.445Z","2017-03-17T19:21:17.000Z","2037-03-17T19:21:16.000Z"
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",0,,"MichaelBlack","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-23T04:58:26.021Z","2017-03-17T19:21:17.000Z","2037-03-17T19:21:16.000Z"
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",5,,"Medea","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-11T08:43:00.990Z","2017-03-17T19:21:17.000Z","2037-03-17T19:21:16.000Z"
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.",5,,"fork","michaelanissimov",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-16T06:41:54.000Z","2011-11-15T11:50:28.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.",10,,"gimpf","michaelanissimov",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-16T13:09:41.000Z","2011-11-15T11:50:28.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.",20,,"Anubhav","michaelanissimov",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-16T04:11:56.000Z","2011-11-15T11:50:28.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.",40,,"lavalamp","michaelanissimov",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-15T22:20:46.000Z","2011-11-15T11:50:28.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.",10,,"chemotaxis101","michaelanissimov",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-15T20:08:03.000Z","2011-11-15T11:50:28.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.",60,,"Malgidus","michaelanissimov","Self-recursive intelligence explosion. Additonal % chance every year after.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-27T20:25:59.000Z","2011-11-15T11:50:28.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.",20,,"Michael Dickens","michaelanissimov",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-16T06:37:40.000Z","2011-11-15T11:50:28.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.",36,,"faws","michaelanissimov",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-18T13:28:56.000Z","2011-11-15T11:50:28.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.",25,,"kilobug","michaelanissimov",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-18T17:16:25.000Z","2011-11-15T11:50:28.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.",27,,"NathanMcKnight","michaelanissimov",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-07T21:36:15.000Z","2011-11-15T11:50:28.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.",8,,"TrE","michaelanissimov",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-20T20:48:30.000Z","2011-11-15T11:50:28.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.",100,,"themusicgod1","michaelanissimov",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-14T06:36:00.000Z","2011-11-15T11:50:28.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.",54,,"themusicgod1","michaelanissimov",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T21:23:18.000Z","2011-11-15T11:50:28.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.",50,,"michaelanissimov","michaelanissimov",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-15T11:50:28.000Z","2011-11-15T11:50:28.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.",25,,"Jayson Virissimo","michaelanissimov",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-15T12:07:52.000Z","2011-11-15T11:50:28.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.",4,,"JoshuaZ","michaelanissimov","Does this mean an unambiguous Singularity? Some versions of a Singularity are more clear cut when they happen than others (e.g. Kurzweil is much less clear cut than an intelligence explosion). ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-15T13:43:59.000Z","2011-11-15T11:50:28.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.",55,,"gwern","michaelanissimov","fixed date for you. related prediction: not by 2040: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/473",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-15T21:55:42.000Z","2011-11-15T11:50:28.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.",41,,"Grognor","michaelanissimov","betting against is safer because there are singularity scenarios where everyone dies and thus no calibration gets recorded.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-16T07:28:04.000Z","2011-11-15T11:50:28.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.",80,,"Anubhav","michaelanissimov","Misread as 'will not occur.'",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-16T08:03:41.000Z","2011-11-15T11:50:28.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.",5,,"AakashJain","michaelanissimov",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-19T05:32:03.000Z","2011-11-15T11:50:28.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.",60,,"halfwit","michaelanissimov",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-10T02:52:03.000Z","2011-11-15T11:50:28.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.",30,,"Pablo","michaelanissimov",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-02T03:22:08.000Z","2011-11-15T11:50:28.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.",48,,"pranomostro","michaelanissimov",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:31:21.277Z","2011-11-15T11:50:28.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.",45,,"waveman","michaelanissimov","My estimate is low because of the likelihood of societal collapse before the singularity happens. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-15T03:41:16.000Z","2011-11-15T11:50:28.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.",20,,"Tuxedage","michaelanissimov",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-03T19:39:32.000Z","2011-11-15T11:50:28.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg",2,,"kallman","gwern","I'm very skeptical tonight, I guess.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-06-22T06:02:12.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:13.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg",14,,"lavalamp","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-10T16:59:22.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:13.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg",5,,"Qiaochu","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-03T21:09:04.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:13.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg",15,,"RandomThinker","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-28T02:54:10.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:13.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg",15,,"adbge","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-29T23:08:24.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:13.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg",10,,"artir","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-16T17:57:37.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:13.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg",72,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-08T21:03:49.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:13.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg",15,,"kiimberlie","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-16T19:51:59.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:13.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg",12,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-03T21:52:39.408Z","2011-06-17T20:12:13.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg",11,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-04T04:18:36.784Z","2011-06-17T20:12:13.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg",90,,"FractalHeretic","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-18T03:16:58.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:13.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg",20,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:05:36.080Z","2011-06-17T20:12:13.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg",14,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:05:51.408Z","2011-06-17T20:12:13.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-06-17T20:12:13.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:13.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg",15,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-06-17T20:22:08.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:13.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg",45,,"faul_sname","gwern","Processing power should be quite close, I imagine there will be no lack of people taking full advantage of that fact.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-01T08:29:43.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:13.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg",5,,"Konkvistador","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-21T21:13:22.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:13.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg",4,,"roxton","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-19T22:37:57.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:13.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg",95,,"muflax","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-26T22:22:14.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:13.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg",5,,"muflax","gwern","(inverted)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-26T22:23:07.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:13.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg",10,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T04:23:03.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:13.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg",2,,"Tuxedage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-03T19:33:59.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:13.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg",15,,"Malgidus","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-27T22:51:05.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:13.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg",40,,"RoryS","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-18T11:41:16.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:13.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg",92,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-16T22:21:13.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:13.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg",13,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-08T22:11:58.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:13.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg",7,,"davatk","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-26T22:35:39.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:13.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg",30,,"wassname","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-08-12T06:32:24.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:13.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",98,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-10T20:46:32.000Z","2012-02-29T02:59:50.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",80,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-29T02:59:50.000Z","2012-02-29T02:59:50.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",75,,"Thelas","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-01T04:00:08.000Z","2012-02-29T02:59:50.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",60,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-01T07:46:49.000Z","2012-02-29T02:59:50.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",75,,"RandomThinker","gwern","20 years is a long time.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-06T08:06:32.000Z","2012-02-29T02:59:50.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",70,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-30T14:49:05.000Z","2012-02-29T02:59:50.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",71,,"CarlShulman","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-07-18T04:48:45.000Z","2012-02-29T02:59:50.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",77,,"CarlShulman","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-07-18T04:52:04.000Z","2012-02-29T02:59:50.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",75,,"lukeprog","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-04T02:04:04.000Z","2012-02-29T02:59:50.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",80,,"Michael Dickens","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-12-19T03:04:48.000Z","2012-02-29T02:59:50.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",95,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-06-12T14:23:37.000Z","2012-02-29T02:59:50.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",96,,"aarongertler","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-06-20T04:29:04.000Z","2012-02-29T02:59:50.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",95,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-01T04:11:41.000Z","2012-02-29T02:59:50.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",90,,"lavalamp","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-12-19T19:45:01.000Z","2012-02-29T02:59:50.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",85,,"adbge","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-12-20T16:41:40.000Z","2012-02-29T02:59:50.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",90,,"​","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-01T13:15:01.000Z","2012-02-29T02:59:50.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",90,,"lettergram","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-03-27T01:28:56.000Z","2012-02-29T02:59:50.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",90,,"procran","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-03-27T21:23:58.000Z","2012-02-29T02:59:50.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",90,,"rebellionkid","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-06-12T09:08:59.000Z","2012-02-29T02:59:50.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",70,,"Ben Doherty","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-06-12T13:48:15.000Z","2012-02-29T02:59:50.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",95,,"Neznans","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-06-19T17:57:06.000Z","2012-02-29T02:59:50.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",99,,"Houshalter","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-01T04:12:52.000Z","2012-02-29T02:59:50.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",98,,"CarlShulman","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-10T21:18:58.000Z","2012-02-29T02:59:50.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",58,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-01T23:44:34.000Z","2012-02-29T02:59:50.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",99,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-10T16:06:26.000Z","2012-02-29T02:59:50.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",90,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T00:17:32.889Z","2012-02-29T02:59:50.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",80,,"Mati Roy","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-14T11:58:00.000Z","2012-02-29T02:59:50.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",5,,"koanchuk","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-18T00:23:04.451Z","2020-12-17T19:54:42.414Z","2025-12-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",55,,"gt22","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-17T23:27:09.703Z","2020-12-17T19:54:42.414Z","2025-12-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",50,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-17T19:54:42.423Z","2020-12-17T19:54:42.414Z","2025-12-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",24,,"Zian","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T20:22:03.260Z","2020-12-17T19:54:42.414Z","2025-12-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",1,,"dotchart","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T22:14:28.939Z","2020-12-17T19:54:42.414Z","2025-12-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",30,,"NaiveTortoise","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-21T01:14:25.379Z","2020-12-17T19:54:42.414Z","2025-12-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",45,,"Adele Lopez","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-22T17:02:16.701Z","2020-12-17T19:54:42.414Z","2025-12-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",39,,"Teerth Aloke","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-18T11:47:17.330Z","2020-12-17T19:54:42.414Z","2025-12-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",7,,"Teerth Aloke","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-18T11:47:35.679Z","2020-12-17T19:54:42.414Z","2025-12-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",11,,"Teerth Aloke","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-18T11:47:39.814Z","2020-12-17T19:54:42.414Z","2025-12-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",15,,"Zolmeister","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-18T05:05:12.648Z","2020-12-17T19:54:42.414Z","2025-12-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",40,,"kjz","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-18T03:03:40.203Z","2020-12-17T19:54:42.414Z","2025-12-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",10,,"zak","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-18T02:45:31.544Z","2020-12-17T19:54:42.414Z","2025-12-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",4,,"Maxwell Peterson","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-18T01:57:35.648Z","2020-12-17T19:54:42.414Z","2025-12-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",4,,"Teerth Aloke","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-18T11:47:41.118Z","2020-12-17T19:54:42.414Z","2025-12-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",8,,"Teerth Aloke","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-18T11:47:41.746Z","2020-12-17T19:54:42.414Z","2025-12-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",62,,"glagidse","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-18T13:05:16.356Z","2020-12-17T19:54:42.414Z","2025-12-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",64,,"glagidse","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-18T13:05:17.174Z","2020-12-17T19:54:42.414Z","2025-12-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",81,,"glagidse","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-18T13:05:28.709Z","2020-12-17T19:54:42.414Z","2025-12-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",68,,"glagidse","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-18T13:05:29.797Z","2020-12-17T19:54:42.414Z","2025-12-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",50,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-17T23:45:01.437Z","2020-12-17T19:54:42.414Z","2025-12-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",7,,"gt22","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-18T13:57:05.024Z","2020-12-17T19:54:42.414Z","2025-12-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",30,,"habryka","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-18T18:57:36.832Z","2020-12-17T19:54:42.414Z","2025-12-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",16,,"lalaithion","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-18T21:04:44.722Z","2020-12-17T19:54:42.414Z","2025-12-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",90,,"Razied","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-18T21:28:20.201Z","2020-12-17T19:54:42.414Z","2025-12-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",80,,"Razied","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-18T21:30:08.539Z","2020-12-17T19:54:42.414Z","2025-12-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",30,,"DanielFilan","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-19T05:47:13.908Z","2020-12-17T19:54:42.414Z","2025-12-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",33,,"Mark Xu","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-18T01:52:55.641Z","2020-12-17T19:54:42.414Z","2025-12-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",36,,"habryka","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-19T07:24:57.374Z","2020-12-17T19:54:42.414Z","2025-12-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",26,,"niplav","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-19T14:48:43.496Z","2020-12-17T19:54:42.414Z","2025-12-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",33,,"Eli Lifland","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-19T18:28:11.216Z","2020-12-17T19:54:42.414Z","2025-12-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",5,,"peterbarnett","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T06:00:50.471Z","2020-12-17T19:54:42.414Z","2025-12-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",60,,"kilotaras","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-20T15:18:18.692Z","2020-12-17T19:54:42.414Z","2025-12-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",100,,"holycow81","FestiveBleak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-09T16:20:39.000Z","2013-05-31T20:37:25.000Z","2023-05-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",70,,"tylercurtis","FestiveBleak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-01T12:50:23.000Z","2013-05-31T20:37:25.000Z","2023-05-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",97,,"Tuxedage","FestiveBleak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-02T00:41:50.000Z","2013-05-31T20:37:25.000Z","2023-05-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",55,,"Jayson Virissimo","FestiveBleak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-06T18:38:06.000Z","2013-05-31T20:37:25.000Z","2023-05-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",90,,"Baeboo","FestiveBleak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T03:29:50.289Z","2013-05-31T20:37:25.000Z","2023-05-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",86,,"Baeboo","FestiveBleak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T05:04:49.951Z","2013-05-31T20:37:25.000Z","2023-05-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",90,,"NickN","FestiveBleak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T04:42:42.265Z","2013-05-31T20:37:25.000Z","2023-05-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",65,,"FestiveBleak","FestiveBleak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-31T20:37:25.000Z","2013-05-31T20:37:25.000Z","2023-05-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",40,,"procran","FestiveBleak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-02T13:17:25.000Z","2013-05-31T20:37:25.000Z","2023-05-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",60,,"gwern","FestiveBleak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-02T19:53:13.000Z","2013-05-31T20:37:25.000Z","2023-05-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",50,,"antsan","FestiveBleak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-10T12:18:50.000Z","2013-05-31T20:37:25.000Z","2023-05-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",70,,"jasticE","FestiveBleak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-19T20:34:59.000Z","2013-05-31T20:37:25.000Z","2023-05-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",60,,"alecbrooks","FestiveBleak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-29T14:01:48.000Z","2013-05-31T20:37:25.000Z","2023-05-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",60,,"ShIxtan","FestiveBleak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-30T23:43:09.000Z","2013-05-31T20:37:25.000Z","2023-05-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",70,,"from3004","FestiveBleak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-16T20:07:31.000Z","2013-05-31T20:37:25.000Z","2023-05-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",75,,"Medea","FestiveBleak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-15T16:10:47.000Z","2013-05-31T20:37:25.000Z","2023-05-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",70,,"bobpage","FestiveBleak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-16T18:06:01.000Z","2013-05-31T20:37:25.000Z","2023-05-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",77,,"Baeboo","FestiveBleak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T03:12:22.435Z","2013-05-31T20:37:25.000Z","2023-05-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",25,,"AlexLamson","FestiveBleak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-16T23:41:29.282Z","2013-05-31T20:37:25.000Z","2023-05-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",50,,"saturn","FestiveBleak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-25T05:25:55.000Z","2013-05-31T20:37:25.000Z","2023-05-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",51,,"themusicgod1","FestiveBleak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-15T16:22:03.000Z","2013-05-31T20:37:25.000Z","2023-05-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",51,,"two2thehead","FestiveBleak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-16T08:08:55.000Z","2013-05-31T20:37:25.000Z","2023-05-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",90,,"pranomostro","FestiveBleak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T22:54:59.731Z","2013-05-31T20:37:25.000Z","2023-05-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",100,,"deleteyourbrain","FestiveBleak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T02:46:45.990Z","2013-05-31T20:37:25.000Z","2023-05-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",70,,"AlexLamson","FestiveBleak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-20T19:43:27.817Z","2013-05-31T20:37:25.000Z","2023-05-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",28,,"JoshuaZ","lavalamp",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-11T20:10:24.299Z","2013-06-27T17:53:14.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",15,,"Medea","lavalamp",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-11T08:46:10.028Z","2013-06-27T17:53:14.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",1,,"Qiaochu","lavalamp",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-27T18:52:03.000Z","2013-06-27T17:53:14.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",60,,"Frazer","lavalamp",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-28T04:52:43.000Z","2013-06-27T17:53:14.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",3,,"William-Quixote","lavalamp",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-12T04:06:26.000Z","2013-06-27T17:53:14.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",15,,"Jayson Virissimo","lavalamp",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-05-05T18:48:08.000Z","2013-06-27T17:53:14.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",20,,"Jenson","lavalamp",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-06-26T05:28:15.000Z","2013-06-27T17:53:14.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",40,,"pranomostro","lavalamp",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T22:54:20.275Z","2013-06-27T17:53:14.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",20,,"amadeu","lavalamp",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-07T20:38:53.065Z","2013-06-27T17:53:14.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",0,,"deleteyourbrain","lavalamp",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T03:00:16.471Z","2013-06-27T17:53:14.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",15,,"lavalamp","lavalamp",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-27T17:53:14.000Z","2013-06-27T17:53:14.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",30,,"Michael Dickens","lavalamp",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-27T19:29:21.000Z","2013-06-27T17:53:14.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",25,,"RandomThinker","lavalamp",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-28T09:42:18.000Z","2013-06-27T17:53:14.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",20,,"ShIxtan","lavalamp",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-30T23:31:09.000Z","2013-06-27T17:53:14.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",30,,"holycow81","lavalamp",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-02T18:28:15.000Z","2013-06-27T17:53:14.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",3,,"Emanuel Rylke","lavalamp",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-03T19:08:49.000Z","2013-06-27T17:53:14.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",17,,"Mutasir","lavalamp",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-04T09:49:35.000Z","2013-06-27T17:53:14.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",20,,"gwern","lavalamp","the next big liberal movement seems more likely to be back to racial stuff or maybe transexuals; polyamory is too close to Mormons and anti-feminism to receive the same surge gay marriage did",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-13T01:25:24.000Z","2013-06-27T17:53:14.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",0,,"Neznans","lavalamp","Legally complicated and not the direction in which human beings seem to naturally lean. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-05-05T08:16:03.000Z","2013-06-27T17:53:14.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",25,,"rebellionkid","lavalamp",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-06-23T17:12:38.000Z","2013-06-27T17:53:14.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",20,,"EloiseRosen","lavalamp",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-21T21:14:52.000Z","2013-06-27T17:53:14.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",25,,"JoshuaZ","lavalamp",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-22T01:31:51.000Z","2013-06-27T17:53:14.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",13,,"Pablo","lavalamp",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-09T22:19:35.000Z","2013-06-27T17:53:14.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",6,,"Pablo","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-09T22:23:07.000Z","2013-01-13T17:46:45.000Z","2020-12-01T06:20:00.000Z"
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",1,,"Baeboo","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T03:25:26.457Z","2013-01-13T17:46:45.000Z","2020-12-01T06:20:00.000Z"
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",5,,"Nic_Smith","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-14T05:11:52.000Z","2013-01-13T17:46:45.000Z","2020-12-01T06:20:00.000Z"
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",11,,"JoshuaZ","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-14T14:39:40.000Z","2013-01-13T17:46:45.000Z","2020-12-01T06:20:00.000Z"
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",10,,"Slahzer","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-26T20:38:19.000Z","2013-01-13T17:46:45.000Z","2020-12-01T06:20:00.000Z"
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",1,,"adam_strandberg","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-09T21:09:39.000Z","2013-01-13T17:46:45.000Z","2020-12-01T06:20:00.000Z"
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",3,,"John Maxwell IV","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-10T20:03:46.000Z","2013-01-13T17:46:45.000Z","2020-12-01T06:20:00.000Z"
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",7,,"Yvain","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-13T04:11:46.000Z","2013-01-13T17:46:45.000Z","2020-12-01T06:20:00.000Z"
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",1,,"halfwit","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-14T02:50:27.000Z","2013-01-13T17:46:45.000Z","2020-12-01T06:20:00.000Z"
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",9,,"Tuxedage","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-13T17:46:45.000Z","2013-01-13T17:46:45.000Z","2020-12-01T06:20:00.000Z"
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",5,,"Qiaochu","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-14T23:09:22.000Z","2013-01-13T17:46:45.000Z","2020-12-01T06:20:00.000Z"
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",5,,"Cy Fleming","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-15T07:39:26.000Z","2013-01-13T17:46:45.000Z","2020-12-01T06:20:00.000Z"
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",2,,"Emanuel Rylke","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-22T08:26:05.000Z","2013-01-13T17:46:45.000Z","2020-12-01T06:20:00.000Z"
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",15,,"ChristianKl","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-24T17:23:03.000Z","2013-01-13T17:46:45.000Z","2020-12-01T06:20:00.000Z"
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",5,,"tormey","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-10T21:30:30.000Z","2013-01-13T17:46:45.000Z","2020-12-01T06:20:00.000Z"
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",10,,"Michael Dickens","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-01T20:33:19.000Z","2013-01-13T17:46:45.000Z","2020-12-01T06:20:00.000Z"
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",10,,"itaibn","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-02T14:08:14.000Z","2013-01-13T17:46:45.000Z","2020-12-01T06:20:00.000Z"
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",10,,"simplicio","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-02T15:21:16.000Z","2013-01-13T17:46:45.000Z","2020-12-01T06:20:00.000Z"
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",11,,"themusicgod1","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-14T05:53:21.000Z","2013-01-13T17:46:45.000Z","2020-12-01T06:20:00.000Z"
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",2,,"olgaidzh","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-19T09:55:50.000Z","2013-01-13T17:46:45.000Z","2020-12-01T06:20:00.000Z"
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",10,,"itaibn","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-02T14:08:05.000Z","2013-01-13T17:46:45.000Z","2020-12-01T06:20:00.000Z"
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",14,,"holycow81","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-10T09:28:41.000Z","2013-01-13T17:46:45.000Z","2020-12-01T06:20:00.000Z"
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",5,,"pranomostro","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-02T21:04:06.000Z","2013-01-13T17:46:45.000Z","2020-12-01T06:20:00.000Z"
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",2,,"Baeboo","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T03:00:04.760Z","2013-01-13T17:46:45.000Z","2020-12-01T06:20:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",24,,"anifru","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T00:09:50.798Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",81,,"habryka","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T00:48:20.265Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",94,,"erintatum","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:14:54.772Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",88,,"DanielFilan","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:08:45.545Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",55,,"Eli Lifland","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T03:34:40.270Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",60,,"Eigil Rischel","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:59:00.719Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",1,,"MinusGix","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T14:20:16.645Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",99,,"mr-hire","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:08:21.885Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",94,,"platers","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T17:05:13.819Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",56,,"platers","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T17:05:36.544Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",41,,"Darkar Dengeno","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T03:22:44.911Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",85,,"Pablo","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:13:23.112Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",54,,"DanielFilan","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:08:41.755Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",65,,"Zolmeister","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:15:46.173Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",60,,"Zolmeister","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:15:40.768Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",40,,"Darkar Dengeno","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T03:22:48.022Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",35,,"jacobjacob","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:27:12.834Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",33,,"DanielFilan","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:39:11.053Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",43,,"Darkar Dengeno","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T03:22:47.353Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",38,,"Darkar Dengeno","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T03:22:46.769Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",23,,"Darkar Dengeno","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T03:22:28.847Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",36,,"Darkar Dengeno","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T03:22:45.986Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",33,,"Darkar Dengeno","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T03:22:30.834Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",92,,"Elias Edgren","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T11:38:49.814Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",36,,"Darkar Dengeno","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T03:22:33.074Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",43,,"Darkar Dengeno","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T03:22:36.170Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",82,,"DanielFilan","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:08:48.268Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",48,,"Darkar Dengeno","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T03:22:37.234Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",40,,"Darkar Dengeno","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T03:22:45.067Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",59,,"Darkar Dengeno","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T03:22:38.178Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",60,,"Darkar Dengeno","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T03:22:43.502Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",70,,"jungwon","jungwon","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:50:59.202Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",85,,"Ben Pace","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T22:04:41.564Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",90,,"Amanda N","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T21:54:26.208Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",64,,"Julian_R","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T22:05:38.546Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",56,,"Rafael Harth","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T22:29:09.850Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",80,,"Andreas S","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T22:08:45.944Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",60,,"dxu","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T04:02:49.116Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",65,,"Eli Lifland","jungwon",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T22:10:48.233Z","2020-11-20T21:50:59.195Z","2021-11-28T05:00:00.000Z"
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",16,,"Bucky","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:21:20.313Z","2021-01-09T05:42:13.944Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",72,,"Bucky","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:21:15.987Z","2021-01-09T05:42:13.944Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",24,,"Polytopos","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T00:26:59.468Z","2021-01-09T05:42:13.944Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",70,,"ejacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T23:59:59.202Z","2021-01-09T05:42:13.944Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",50,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T05:58:11.377Z","2021-01-09T05:42:13.944Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",40,,"philh","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T19:15:43.771Z","2021-01-09T05:42:13.944Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",36,,"libero","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T09:14:32.828Z","2021-01-09T05:42:13.944Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",29,,"Zvi","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T21:56:11.265Z","2021-01-09T05:42:13.944Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",39,,"Zvi","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T21:56:09.970Z","2021-01-09T05:42:13.944Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",77,,"Geoffrey Wood","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:32:22.070Z","2021-01-09T05:42:13.944Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",60,,"Benjamin Rachbach","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:22:25.554Z","2021-01-09T05:42:13.944Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",85,,"peterbarnett","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T23:44:35.748Z","2021-01-09T05:42:13.944Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",43,,"ete","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T15:16:15.916Z","2021-01-09T05:42:13.944Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",15,,"deluks917","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:51:21.242Z","2021-01-09T05:42:13.944Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",79,,"Mary Chernyshenko","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:41:56.390Z","2021-01-09T05:42:13.944Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",81,,"Mary Chernyshenko","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:42:14.294Z","2021-01-09T05:42:13.944Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",83,,"Mary Chernyshenko","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:42:36.806Z","2021-01-09T05:42:13.944Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",82,,"Mary Chernyshenko","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:42:39.177Z","2021-01-09T05:42:13.944Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",55,,"Mary Chernyshenko","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:44:28.367Z","2021-01-09T05:42:13.944Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",73,,"Liam Donovan","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T08:07:45.968Z","2021-01-09T05:42:13.944Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",90,,"pepe_prime","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T11:29:08.797Z","2021-01-09T05:42:13.944Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",31,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T17:38:43.062Z","2021-01-09T05:42:13.944Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",70,,"Dagon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T20:32:15.096Z","2021-01-09T05:42:13.944Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",52,,"Mary Chernyshenko","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T17:23:49.748Z","2021-01-09T05:42:13.944Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",53,,"Mary Chernyshenko","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T17:23:47.613Z","2021-01-09T05:42:13.944Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",86,,"D0TheMath","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T17:11:34.426Z","2021-01-09T05:42:13.944Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",90,,"NunoSempere","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:25:11.333Z","2021-01-09T05:42:13.944Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",95,,"NunoSempere","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:25:01.296Z","2021-01-09T05:42:13.944Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",50,,"ejacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T23:59:54.508Z","2021-01-09T05:42:13.944Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",30,,"Eli Lifland","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T20:35:28.262Z","2021-01-09T05:42:13.944Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",70,,"Oskar Mathiasen","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T11:55:39.758Z","2021-01-09T05:42:13.944Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",74,,"Bucky","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:21:21.524Z","2021-01-09T05:42:13.944Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",0,,"chimpsky","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-06-10T11:37:21.000Z","2009-10-17T11:21:52.000Z","2070-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",40,,"pranomostro","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T23:19:44.000Z","2009-10-17T11:21:52.000Z","2070-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",30,,"Baeboo","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-26T03:51:48.000Z","2009-10-17T11:21:52.000Z","2070-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",60,,"Larks","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-17T20:20:36.000Z","2009-10-17T11:21:52.000Z","2070-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",70,,"Arenamontanus","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-19T13:08:32.000Z","2009-10-17T11:21:52.000Z","2070-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",7,,"jshiga","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-19T22:53:40.000Z","2009-10-17T11:21:52.000Z","2070-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",1,,"kallman","ChristianKl","That person would have to be 90 today. Even if the tech magically appeared tomorrow...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-26T07:44:01.000Z","2009-10-17T11:21:52.000Z","2070-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",10,,"Nic_Smith","ChristianKl","Updating on Kallman's comment",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-08T06:22:08.000Z","2009-10-17T11:21:52.000Z","2070-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",45,,"JoshuaZ","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-10T13:41:54.000Z","2009-10-17T11:21:52.000Z","2070-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",2,,"amcknight","ChristianKl","Kallman makes a great point",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-16T00:54:37.000Z","2009-10-17T11:21:52.000Z","2070-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",3,,"JoshuaZ","ChristianKl","Updating to increased pessismism about life extension technology. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T02:46:02.000Z","2009-10-17T11:21:52.000Z","2070-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",20,,"saturn","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-21T20:13:23.000Z","2009-10-17T11:21:52.000Z","2070-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",75,,"Malgidus","ChristianKl","With cryonics, 60% otherwise. They are 93 now. One alive may live to 2042, probably can increase lifespan by then.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-27T21:06:11.000Z","2009-10-17T11:21:52.000Z","2070-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",30,,"gwern","ChristianKl","looking at the GRG mortality records, super-centenarians have been doing very badly; even if the tech exists for uploads or whatever, there may well be no one left of the right age to use it for this prediction",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-06T17:19:55.000Z","2009-10-17T11:21:52.000Z","2070-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",0,,"deleteyourbrain","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:11:05.373Z","2009-10-17T11:21:52.000Z","2070-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",10,,"JoshuaZ","ChristianKl","Closer to consistent with my other predictions on aging. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-16T01:49:42.000Z","2009-10-17T11:21:52.000Z","2070-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",8,,"bobpage","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-04T08:31:13.000Z","2009-10-17T11:21:52.000Z","2070-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",65,,"Nic_Smith","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-26T07:31:47.000Z","2009-10-17T11:21:52.000Z","2070-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",70,,"gwern","ChristianKl","I should note that I count psychological survivors (eg. uploads) as meeting this and the other prediction, as well as a cryonics revival.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-29T06:13:08.000Z","2009-10-17T11:21:52.000Z","2070-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",1,,"Jack","ChristianKl","How can this have a higher probability  then the other age prediction. Anyone 150 in 2070 was 140 in 2060. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-18T09:12:26.000Z","2009-10-17T11:21:52.000Z","2070-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",5,,"anonym","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-17T21:42:32.000Z","2009-10-17T11:21:52.000Z","2070-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",45,,"ChristianKl","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-17T11:21:52.000Z","2009-10-17T11:21:52.000Z","2070-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",1,,"Anubhav","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-16T04:06:07.000Z","2009-10-17T11:21:52.000Z","2070-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",60,,"Tuxedage","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-06-10T04:00:01.000Z","2009-10-17T11:21:52.000Z","2070-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",1,,"RandomThinker","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-06-10T07:03:06.000Z","2009-10-17T11:21:52.000Z","2070-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",100,,"alecbrooks","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-13T21:49:13.000Z","2016-01-29T16:00:43.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",99,,"equivrel","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-14T00:28:10.000Z","2016-01-29T16:00:43.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",100,,"bobpage","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-30T00:46:53.000Z","2016-01-29T16:00:43.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",100,,"Baeboo","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-07-30T09:20:00.000Z","2016-01-29T16:00:43.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",100,,"deleteyourbrain","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T02:55:46.965Z","2016-01-29T16:00:43.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",97,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-30T03:24:18.000Z","2016-01-29T16:00:43.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",100,,"gwern","themusicgod1","what, worldwide? No. a lot of places don't even have mosquitoes",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-30T19:01:30.000Z","2016-01-29T16:00:43.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",100,,"ioannes","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-31T17:39:18.000Z","2016-01-29T16:00:43.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",100,,"daniel74f","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-06T01:22:44.000Z","2016-01-29T16:00:43.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",99,,"JoshuaZ","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-29T23:09:57.000Z","2016-01-29T16:00:43.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",100,,"Medea","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-11T08:45:30.388Z","2016-01-29T16:00:43.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",100,,"Selentelechia","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-10-24T16:01:12.000Z","2016-01-29T16:00:43.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",100,,"aarongertler","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-06T02:51:16.000Z","2016-01-29T16:00:43.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",100,,"two2thehead","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-20T04:54:29.000Z","2016-01-29T16:00:43.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",99,,"pranomostro","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-02T20:50:09.000Z","2016-01-29T16:00:43.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",99,,"EloiseRosen","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-30T00:51:52.000Z","2016-01-29T16:00:43.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",99,,"davidmanheim","themusicgod1","The mosquitoes that carry Zika (and Dengue, Chik, etc.) are not endemic in most places (https://qzprod.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/aegypti-the-lancet_colorcorrected.jpeg) and even where they are, endemic diseases infect few people each year.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-29T18:54:00.000Z","2016-01-29T16:00:43.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",95,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-29T16:00:43.000Z","2016-01-29T16:00:43.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",100,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-14T06:41:19.917Z","2016-01-29T16:00:43.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",100,,"jazzsolo","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-03T20:46:10.743Z","2016-01-29T16:00:43.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",100,,"Temeraire","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-11T23:08:31.000Z","2016-01-29T16:00:43.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",100,,"leo_gri","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-21T18:29:47.000Z","2016-01-29T16:00:43.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",42,,"themusicgod1","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T15:33:23.000Z","2013-02-08T06:00:08.000Z","2023-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",2,,"JoshuaZ","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T16:14:44.000Z","2013-02-08T06:00:08.000Z","2023-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",1,,"Andrew MacFie","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T14:50:24.000Z","2013-02-08T06:00:08.000Z","2023-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",5,,"Yvain","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-13T04:09:14.000Z","2013-02-08T06:00:08.000Z","2023-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",60,,"halfwaytogallifrey","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-11T07:57:22.000Z","2013-02-08T06:00:08.000Z","2023-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",4,,"simplicio","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-09T02:51:22.000Z","2013-02-08T06:00:08.000Z","2023-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",1,,"Qiaochu","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-09T00:33:12.000Z","2013-02-08T06:00:08.000Z","2023-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",2,,"pranomostro","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-02T21:04:30.000Z","2013-02-08T06:00:08.000Z","2023-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",1,,"Tuxedage","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-08T14:50:59.000Z","2013-02-08T06:00:08.000Z","2023-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",5,,"Jayson Virissimo","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-08T06:00:08.000Z","2013-02-08T06:00:08.000Z","2023-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",5,,"Felix","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-19T00:42:15.000Z","2013-02-08T06:00:08.000Z","2023-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",3,,"ChristianKl","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-18T21:45:49.000Z","2013-02-08T06:00:08.000Z","2023-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",5,,"procran","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-18T12:10:54.000Z","2013-02-08T06:00:08.000Z","2023-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",6,,"gwern","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-17T19:31:01.000Z","2013-02-08T06:00:08.000Z","2023-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",5,,"JoshuaZ","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-11T22:34:06.000Z","2013-02-08T06:00:08.000Z","2023-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",0,,"moridinamael","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-08T21:09:40.000Z","2013-02-08T06:00:08.000Z","2023-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",5,,"PaulS","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-25T00:39:15.000Z","2013-02-08T06:00:08.000Z","2023-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",2,,"Baeboo","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-03T21:33:07.000Z","2013-02-08T06:00:08.000Z","2023-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",2,,"pranomostro","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:16:48.274Z","2013-02-08T06:00:08.000Z","2023-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",0,,"deleteyourbrain","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T03:02:56.680Z","2013-02-08T06:00:08.000Z","2023-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",2,,"Houshalter","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-15T22:03:49.000Z","2013-02-08T06:00:08.000Z","2023-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",6,,"bobpage","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-26T00:00:53.000Z","2013-02-08T06:00:08.000Z","2023-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",9,,"Mati Roy","aarongertler",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-07-28T01:00:54.000Z","2014-06-17T04:23:56.000Z","2024-06-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",53,,"deschutron","aarongertler",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-06-25T08:09:46.000Z","2014-06-17T04:23:56.000Z","2024-06-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",35,,"waveman","aarongertler","Chess is quite huge as a search space. I guess it's possible but I see no evidence that it's close.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-06-29T02:53:11.000Z","2014-06-17T04:23:56.000Z","2024-06-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",25,,"RandomThinker","aarongertler",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-11T23:58:52.000Z","2014-06-17T04:23:56.000Z","2024-06-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",1,,"benwr","aarongertler",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-12T02:28:14.000Z","2014-06-17T04:23:56.000Z","2024-06-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",5,,"Medea","aarongertler",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-09T11:59:18.000Z","2014-06-17T04:23:56.000Z","2024-06-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",3,,"splorridge","aarongertler",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-17T14:05:22.000Z","2014-06-17T04:23:56.000Z","2024-06-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",11,,"themusicgod1","aarongertler",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-01T23:38:58.000Z","2014-06-17T04:23:56.000Z","2024-06-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",30,,"aarongertler","aarongertler",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-06-17T04:23:56.000Z","2014-06-17T04:23:56.000Z","2024-06-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",15,,"RandomThinker","aarongertler",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-06-17T04:33:36.000Z","2014-06-17T04:23:56.000Z","2024-06-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",10,,"rebellionkid","aarongertler",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-06-17T11:32:06.000Z","2014-06-17T04:23:56.000Z","2024-06-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",5,,"JoshuaZ","aarongertler",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-06-17T22:43:27.000Z","2014-06-17T04:23:56.000Z","2024-06-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",1,,"azax1","aarongertler",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-06-20T23:11:58.000Z","2014-06-17T04:23:56.000Z","2024-06-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",10,,"Michael Dickens","aarongertler",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-06-25T18:45:28.000Z","2014-06-17T04:23:56.000Z","2024-06-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",45,,"Ixiel","aarongertler","I wish this were two propositions, but I can multiply.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-07-14T11:53:48.000Z","2014-06-17T04:23:56.000Z","2024-06-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",30,,"qznc","aarongertler",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-07-14T19:46:57.000Z","2014-06-17T04:23:56.000Z","2024-06-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",20,,"Jayson Virissimo","aarongertler",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-07-15T17:56:06.000Z","2014-06-17T04:23:56.000Z","2024-06-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",1,,"KnaveOfAllTrades","aarongertler",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-18T22:45:55.000Z","2014-06-17T04:23:56.000Z","2024-06-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",10,,"sweeneyrod","aarongertler",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-13T10:02:30.000Z","2014-06-17T04:23:56.000Z","2024-06-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",1,,"btrettel","aarongertler",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-09T02:37:15.000Z","2014-06-17T04:23:56.000Z","2024-06-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",2,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","aarongertler",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-17T03:33:28.000Z","2014-06-17T04:23:56.000Z","2024-06-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.",15,,"Baeboo","Rain",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T02:26:23.152Z","2009-11-11T15:01:47.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.",95,,"Rain","Rain",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-11-11T15:01:47.000Z","2009-11-11T15:01:47.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.",5,,"Laurent Bossavit","Rain",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-11-12T08:16:47.000Z","2009-11-11T15:01:47.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.",12,,"Arenamontanus","Rain",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-11-13T17:18:23.000Z","2009-11-11T15:01:47.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.",10,,"Anubhav","Rain",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T13:41:13.000Z","2009-11-11T15:01:47.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.",5,,"JoshuaZ","Rain",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T22:28:13.000Z","2009-11-11T15:01:47.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.",5,,"amitpamin","Rain",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-10T00:23:44.000Z","2009-11-11T15:01:47.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.",0,,"Peter Hurford","Rain","If I'm wrong about making this prediction, no one will be around to judge me, but if I'm right about making this prediction, people will think I have great predictive ability.  Thus my anthropic prediction.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-01T15:09:25.000Z","2009-11-11T15:01:47.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.",20,,"Jayson Virissimo","Rain",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-01T16:11:26.000Z","2009-11-11T15:01:47.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.",24,,"Baeboo","Rain",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-25T04:48:52.000Z","2009-11-11T15:01:47.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.",20,,"pranomostro","Rain",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T23:28:55.000Z","2009-11-11T15:01:47.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.",0,,"deleteyourbrain","Rain",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T01:47:59.044Z","2009-11-11T15:01:47.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.",90,,"Rain","Rain","19% Global Catastrophic Risks conference * 50% Prof. Sir Martin Rees * 30% Prof. John Leslie * Significant Judge Richard Posner * Not <25%, Dr. Nick Bostrom",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-12-28T19:21:09.000Z","2009-11-11T15:01:47.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.",20,,"gwern","Rain",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-24T21:06:11.000Z","2009-11-11T15:01:47.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.",1,,"Arets Paeglis","Rain",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-25T09:57:50.000Z","2009-11-11T15:01:47.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.",10,,"kilobug","Rain",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-10T07:57:57.000Z","2009-11-11T15:01:47.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.",10,,"Michael Dickens","Rain",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-16T06:37:26.000Z","2009-11-11T15:01:47.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.",0,,"lavalamp","Rain","My non-anthropic guess is 80% or so...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-01T17:15:23.000Z","2009-11-11T15:01:47.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.",1,,"dhoe","Rain",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-01T20:24:02.000Z","2009-11-11T15:01:47.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.",15,,"Unknowns","Rain",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-25T15:15:26.000Z","2009-11-11T15:01:47.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.",93,,"themusicgod1","Rain",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-10T00:04:12.000Z","2009-11-11T15:01:47.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.",25,,"Pablo","Rain","The median value in a survey of experts was 21%, if I recall correctly.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-06T06:21:32.000Z","2009-11-11T15:01:47.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google will survive for 15 more years",85,,"Baeboo","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T03:29:01.855Z","2013-05-19T14:44:36.000Z","2028-05-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google will survive for 15 more years",50,,"NancyLebovitz","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-19T14:44:36.000Z","2013-05-19T14:44:36.000Z","2028-05-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google will survive for 15 more years",85,,"JoshuaZ","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-19T14:46:04.000Z","2013-05-19T14:44:36.000Z","2028-05-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google will survive for 15 more years",90,,"holycow81","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-27T03:25:27.000Z","2013-05-19T14:44:36.000Z","2028-05-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google will survive for 15 more years",95,,"gwern","NancyLebovitz","I assume this refers to the status of the google brand and not if, say, google were to merge with microsoft or be bought in a decade?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-02T20:00:44.000Z","2013-05-19T14:44:36.000Z","2028-05-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google will survive for 15 more years",96,,"jasticE","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-19T20:43:16.000Z","2013-05-19T14:44:36.000Z","2028-05-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google will survive for 15 more years",90,,"procran","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-19T23:17:28.000Z","2013-05-19T14:44:36.000Z","2028-05-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google will survive for 15 more years",97,,"dhoe","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-24T19:47:53.000Z","2013-05-19T14:44:36.000Z","2028-05-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google will survive for 15 more years",95,,"mavant","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-25T16:04:24.000Z","2013-05-19T14:44:36.000Z","2028-05-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google will survive for 15 more years",95,,"ShIxtan","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-30T23:51:49.000Z","2013-05-19T14:44:36.000Z","2028-05-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google will survive for 15 more years",88,,"NickN","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T04:36:00.219Z","2013-05-19T14:44:36.000Z","2028-05-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google will survive for 15 more years",99,,"Tuxedage","NancyLebovitz","Why such low estimates?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-20T00:03:39.000Z","2013-05-19T14:44:36.000Z","2028-05-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google will survive for 15 more years",70,,"tylercurtis","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-20T02:11:55.000Z","2013-05-19T14:44:36.000Z","2028-05-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google will survive for 15 more years",60,,"from3004","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-16T20:07:41.000Z","2013-05-19T14:44:36.000Z","2028-05-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google will survive for 15 more years",92,,"themusicgod1","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T23:00:49.000Z","2013-05-19T14:44:36.000Z","2028-05-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google will survive for 15 more years",90,,"AlexLamson","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-16T23:42:50.375Z","2013-05-19T14:44:36.000Z","2028-05-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google will survive for 15 more years",90,,"lavalamp","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-02T22:11:10.000Z","2013-05-19T14:44:36.000Z","2028-05-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google will survive for 15 more years",97,,"btrettel","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-16T15:16:08.000Z","2013-05-19T14:44:36.000Z","2028-05-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google will survive for 15 more years",95,,"pranomostro","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:01:12.336Z","2013-05-19T14:44:36.000Z","2028-05-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google will survive for 15 more years",97,,"Baeboo","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T03:06:27.359Z","2013-05-19T14:44:36.000Z","2028-05-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google will survive for 15 more years",100,,"deleteyourbrain","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T03:02:08.510Z","2013-05-19T14:44:36.000Z","2028-05-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",51,,"TheScholar","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-18T09:00:38.000Z","2010-09-18T09:00:37.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",0,,"gwern","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-18T17:43:14.000Z","2010-09-18T09:00:37.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",1,,"MrHen","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-23T20:10:06.000Z","2010-09-18T09:00:37.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",1,,"JoshuaZ","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-29T00:08:31.000Z","2010-09-18T09:00:37.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",1,,"NihilCredo","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-29T00:14:57.000Z","2010-09-18T09:00:37.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",100,,"bbleeker","TheScholar","I'd be very happy to be proven wrong, though!",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-29T16:12:51.000Z","2010-09-18T09:00:37.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",1,,"Larks","TheScholar","We're including Iran, etc. in this?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-29T21:30:55.000Z","2010-09-18T09:00:37.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",0,,"divide","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-29T23:31:05.000Z","2010-09-18T09:00:37.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",100,,"datadataeverywhere","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-30T18:14:40.000Z","2010-09-18T09:00:37.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",0,,"datadataeverywhere","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-30T18:15:01.000Z","2010-09-18T09:00:37.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",1,,"Jack","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-10T03:32:07.000Z","2010-09-18T09:00:37.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",0,,"jasticE","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-14T13:24:19.000Z","2010-09-18T09:00:37.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",0,,"JoshuaZ","TheScholar","Updating seems extremely unlikely. TheScholar- would you be willing to make a bet on this? ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-26T18:10:26.000Z","2010-09-18T09:00:37.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",0,,"Anubhav","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-12T13:47:27.000Z","2010-09-18T09:00:37.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",0,,"Emanuel Rylke","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-29T14:12:56.000Z","2010-09-18T09:00:37.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",0,,"najdorf","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-11T08:07:08.000Z","2010-09-18T09:00:37.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",0,,"benwr","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-11T18:27:49.000Z","2010-09-18T09:00:37.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",0,,"Unknowns","TheScholar","I suppose those estimating 1% are guessing at the end of the world by 2020.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-13T09:40:05.000Z","2010-09-18T09:00:37.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",0,,"themusicgod1","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-21T21:49:05.000Z","2010-09-18T09:00:37.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",1,,"pranomostro","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-10T21:05:07.662Z","2010-09-18T09:00:37.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",0,,"Cato","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-07T09:09:10.803Z","2010-09-18T09:00:37.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",0,,"Baeboo","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-20T02:11:03.291Z","2010-09-18T09:00:37.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",0,,"JoshuaZ","Will Newsome",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T14:22:29.236Z","2011-09-14T15:13:24.000Z","2051-09-15T00:55:56.000Z"
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",0,,"pranomostro","Will Newsome",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:33:02.402Z","2011-09-14T15:13:24.000Z","2051-09-15T00:55:56.000Z"
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",0,,"ygert","Will Newsome",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-14T08:36:01.000Z","2011-09-14T15:13:24.000Z","2051-09-15T00:55:56.000Z"
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",0,,"Arets Paeglis","Will Newsome","No.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T21:28:15.000Z","2011-09-14T15:13:24.000Z","2051-09-15T00:55:56.000Z"
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",1,,"Jayson Virissimo","Will Newsome",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T11:09:22.000Z","2011-09-14T15:13:24.000Z","2051-09-15T00:55:56.000Z"
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",3,,"abamf","Will Newsome",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-09T20:07:48.000Z","2011-09-14T15:13:24.000Z","2051-09-15T00:55:56.000Z"
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",0,,"Serge","Will Newsome",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-01T16:44:26.000Z","2011-09-14T15:13:24.000Z","2051-09-15T00:55:56.000Z"
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",0,,"faws","Will Newsome","Define ""magic"". The sort of thing people usually understand under the word magic: 10^-20. Something someone might post facto rationalize as magic: 10^-6",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-23T19:00:14.000Z","2011-09-14T15:13:24.000Z","2051-09-15T00:55:56.000Z"
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",0,,"themusicgod1","Will Newsome",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-16T22:12:19.000Z","2011-09-14T15:13:24.000Z","2051-09-15T00:55:56.000Z"
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",0,,"nshepperd","Will Newsome",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-11T12:44:17.000Z","2011-09-14T15:13:24.000Z","2051-09-15T00:55:56.000Z"
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",0,,"Leo","Will Newsome",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-07T23:15:36.000Z","2011-09-14T15:13:24.000Z","2051-09-15T00:55:56.000Z"
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",0,,"lavalamp","Will Newsome","lolno",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-10T16:57:34.000Z","2011-09-14T15:13:24.000Z","2051-09-15T00:55:56.000Z"
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",100,,"Arets Paeglis","Will Newsome",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T21:24:42.000Z","2011-09-14T15:13:24.000Z","2051-09-15T00:55:56.000Z"
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",0,,"Sniffnoy","Will Newsome",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-08T22:28:30.000Z","2011-09-14T15:13:24.000Z","2051-09-15T00:55:56.000Z"
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",0,,"Konkvistador","Will Newsome",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-23T16:20:17.000Z","2011-09-14T15:13:24.000Z","2051-09-15T00:55:56.000Z"
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",0,,"bobpage","Will Newsome",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-20T12:00:45.000Z","2011-09-14T15:13:24.000Z","2051-09-15T00:55:56.000Z"
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",0,,"Ken","Will Newsome",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-19T14:40:25.000Z","2011-09-14T15:13:24.000Z","2051-09-15T00:55:56.000Z"
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",0,,"ZrCa","Will Newsome",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-19T06:26:25.000Z","2011-09-14T15:13:24.000Z","2051-09-15T00:55:56.000Z"
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",0,,"papermachine","Will Newsome",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-19T06:13:48.000Z","2011-09-14T15:13:24.000Z","2051-09-15T00:55:56.000Z"
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",0,,"nshepperd","Will Newsome","Nope.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-16T05:53:48.000Z","2011-09-14T15:13:24.000Z","2051-09-15T00:55:56.000Z"
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",0,,"gwern","Will Newsome","what on earth? what events are your 5% made of, will? as it is, I'm not comfortable giving this any probability...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-14T22:56:02.000Z","2011-09-14T15:13:24.000Z","2051-09-15T00:55:56.000Z"
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",0,,"JoshuaZ","Will Newsome","Extremely unlikely. Chance of being known to be true in 5 years if it is true? Even more unlikely. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-14T16:19:50.000Z","2011-09-14T15:13:24.000Z","2051-09-15T00:55:56.000Z"
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",5,,"Will Newsome","Will Newsome",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-14T15:13:24.000Z","2011-09-14T15:13:24.000Z","2051-09-15T00:55:56.000Z"
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",85,,"Polytopos","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T00:39:23.138Z","2021-01-09T06:40:39.305Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",47,,"Polytopos","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T00:29:38.335Z","2021-01-09T06:40:39.305Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",10,,"ejacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T00:03:22.056Z","2021-01-09T06:40:39.305Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",5,,"Zvi","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T22:00:17.255Z","2021-01-09T06:40:39.305Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",6,,"Zvi","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T22:00:09.518Z","2021-01-09T06:40:39.305Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",36,,"Liam Donovan","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T08:09:35.815Z","2021-01-09T06:40:39.305Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",1,,"deluks917","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:45:20.137Z","2021-01-09T06:40:39.305Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",69,,"libero","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T09:20:45.414Z","2021-01-09T06:40:39.305Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",5,,"Geoffrey Wood","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:39:18.064Z","2021-01-09T06:40:39.305Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",15,,"philh","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T19:25:39.467Z","2021-01-09T06:40:39.305Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",55,,"Benjamin Rachbach","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:27:21.520Z","2021-01-09T06:40:39.305Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",5,,"Eli Lifland","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T20:38:46.130Z","2021-01-09T06:40:39.305Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",3,,"Eli Lifland","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T20:39:07.867Z","2021-01-09T06:40:39.305Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",5,,"Dagon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T20:36:53.955Z","2021-01-09T06:40:39.305Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",12,,"Oskar Mathiasen","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T12:10:07.979Z","2021-01-09T06:40:39.305Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",7,,"Ben Pace","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T07:54:14.807Z","2021-01-09T06:40:39.305Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",1,,"pepe_prime","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T11:34:43.860Z","2021-01-09T06:40:39.305Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",2,,"ChristianKl","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T12:26:37.706Z","2021-01-09T06:40:39.305Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",5,,"ChristianKl","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T12:26:35.640Z","2021-01-09T06:40:39.305Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",22,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T19:27:44.627Z","2021-01-09T06:40:39.305Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",5,,"D0TheMath","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T17:17:04.850Z","2021-01-09T06:40:39.305Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",18,,"Richard_Ngo","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T11:28:10.031Z","2021-01-09T06:40:39.305Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",5,,"NunoSempere","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:39:09.625Z","2021-01-09T06:40:39.305Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ",65,,"Pablo","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T16:36:28.000Z","2012-02-18T21:56:38.000Z","2032-02-17T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ",30,,"Porejide","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-18T21:56:38.000Z","2012-02-18T21:56:38.000Z","2032-02-17T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ",60,,"torekp","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-24T02:45:52.000Z","2012-02-18T21:56:38.000Z","2032-02-17T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ",42,,"Grognor","Porejide","people can be pretty gosh-darned resistant to change",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-23T00:24:59.000Z","2012-02-18T21:56:38.000Z","2032-02-17T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ",20,,"Anubhav","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-23T02:23:38.000Z","2012-02-18T21:56:38.000Z","2032-02-17T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ",15,,"bobpage","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-24T22:21:17.000Z","2012-02-18T21:56:38.000Z","2032-02-17T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ",65,,"gwern","Porejide","USA fleet turnover is 20+ years: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/09/vehicle-sales-fleet-turnover-ratio.html 20+2012=2032",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-28T01:17:58.000Z","2012-02-18T21:56:38.000Z","2032-02-17T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ",25,,"RandomThinker","Porejide","tech changes in areas which already work pretty well are slower than you think (see lightbulb).  Cars work pretty well.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-02T23:18:19.000Z","2012-02-18T21:56:38.000Z","2032-02-17T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ",67,,"Elithrion","Porejide","Assuming we mean ""owned"" so we don't have to account for autonomous potentially spending longer literally on the road.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-01T02:51:27.000Z","2012-02-18T21:56:38.000Z","2032-02-17T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ",65,,"lavalamp","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-03T20:17:42.000Z","2012-02-18T21:56:38.000Z","2032-02-17T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ",55,,"themusicgod1","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-10T14:40:06.000Z","2012-02-18T21:56:38.000Z","2032-02-17T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ",40,,"Baeboo","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T05:24:30.061Z","2012-02-18T21:56:38.000Z","2032-02-17T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ",40,,"antsan","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-21T17:26:17.000Z","2012-02-18T21:56:38.000Z","2032-02-17T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ",80,,"kallman","Porejide","20 years is too few to make people entrust their lives in robot chauffeurs, no matter how viable the technology.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-28T01:09:23.000Z","2012-02-18T21:56:38.000Z","2032-02-17T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ",75,,"RandomThinker","Porejide","oops misread.  predicting it's not going to happen",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-02T23:18:52.000Z","2012-02-18T21:56:38.000Z","2032-02-17T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ",75,,"alanog","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-02T09:09:47.000Z","2012-02-18T21:56:38.000Z","2032-02-17T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ",65,,"JoshuaZ","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-04T00:34:44.000Z","2012-02-18T21:56:38.000Z","2032-02-17T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ",75,,"Tuxedage","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-04T04:02:36.000Z","2012-02-18T21:56:38.000Z","2032-02-17T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ",85,,"David","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-23T10:46:46.000Z","2012-02-18T21:56:38.000Z","2032-02-17T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ",40,,"pranomostro","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T00:20:19.733Z","2012-02-18T21:56:38.000Z","2032-02-17T12:00:00.000Z"
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",16,,"Polytopos","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T00:26:37.237Z","2021-01-09T05:41:12.261Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",60,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T05:57:27.392Z","2021-01-09T05:41:12.261Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",67,,"Troy Macedon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T07:42:05.688Z","2021-01-09T05:41:12.261Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",90,,"Troy Macedon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T07:42:15.410Z","2021-01-09T05:41:12.261Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",95,,"Troy Macedon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T07:42:23.906Z","2021-01-09T05:41:12.261Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",64,,"Liam Donovan","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T08:07:33.947Z","2021-01-09T05:41:12.261Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",55,,"ejacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T23:59:33.993Z","2021-01-09T05:41:12.261Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",60,,"ejacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T23:59:31.569Z","2021-01-09T05:41:12.261Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",70,,"ejacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T23:59:21.281Z","2021-01-09T05:41:12.261Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",69,,"peterbarnett","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T23:43:52.346Z","2021-01-09T05:41:12.261Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",66,,"libero","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T09:14:15.782Z","2021-01-09T05:41:12.261Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",40,,"philh","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T19:29:08.748Z","2021-01-09T05:41:12.261Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",55,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T19:34:27.616Z","2021-01-09T05:41:12.261Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",80,,"Geoffrey Wood","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:32:29.661Z","2021-01-09T05:41:12.261Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",15,,"Eli Lifland","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T20:34:51.010Z","2021-01-09T05:41:12.261Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",25,,"Eli Lifland","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T20:35:00.413Z","2021-01-09T05:41:12.261Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",72,,"Zvi","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T21:55:52.306Z","2021-01-09T05:41:12.261Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",15,,"deluks917","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:51:12.853Z","2021-01-09T05:41:12.261Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",64,,"Zvi","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T21:55:51.453Z","2021-01-09T05:41:12.261Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",71,,"Zvi","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T21:55:49.819Z","2021-01-09T05:41:12.261Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",35,,"Benjamin Rachbach","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:22:07.503Z","2021-01-09T05:41:12.261Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",20,,"Oskar Mathiasen","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T11:54:43.471Z","2021-01-09T05:41:12.261Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",80,,"pepe_prime","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T11:35:58.922Z","2021-01-09T05:41:12.261Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",79,,"pepe_prime","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T11:35:38.564Z","2021-01-09T05:41:12.261Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",84,,"pepe_prime","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T11:28:22.423Z","2021-01-09T05:41:12.261Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",83,,"ete","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T15:15:37.023Z","2021-01-09T05:41:12.261Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",81,,"Bucky","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:18:58.684Z","2021-01-09T05:41:12.261Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",75,,"Dagon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T20:32:21.611Z","2021-01-09T05:41:12.261Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",40,,"NunoSempere","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:24:41.438Z","2021-01-09T05:41:12.261Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",76,,"Bucky","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:19:38.574Z","2021-01-09T05:41:12.261Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",75,,"alokja","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T22:10:42.176Z","2020-11-21T06:09:53.674Z","2200-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",10,,"__nobody","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T23:49:04.322Z","2020-11-21T06:09:53.674Z","2200-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",33,,"Mark Xu","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:13:46.820Z","2020-11-21T06:09:53.674Z","2200-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",66,,"digital_carver","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T11:42:14.691Z","2020-11-21T06:09:53.674Z","2200-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",60,,"Pialgo","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T09:33:54.959Z","2020-11-21T06:09:53.674Z","2200-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",34,,"TurnTrout","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:10:36.863Z","2020-11-21T06:09:53.674Z","2200-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",26,,"habryka","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:52:38.480Z","2020-11-21T06:09:53.674Z","2200-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",38,,"Lanrian","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:57:47.158Z","2020-11-21T06:09:53.674Z","2200-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",59,,"Lanrian","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:58:56.385Z","2020-11-21T06:09:53.674Z","2200-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",56,,"Lanrian","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:58:56.418Z","2020-11-21T06:09:53.674Z","2200-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",53,,"Lanrian","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:58:56.659Z","2020-11-21T06:09:53.674Z","2200-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",54,,"Lanrian","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:58:58.520Z","2020-11-21T06:09:53.674Z","2200-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",50,,"Lanrian","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:59:04.368Z","2020-11-21T06:09:53.674Z","2200-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",48,,"Lanrian","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:59:06.930Z","2020-11-21T06:09:53.674Z","2200-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",40,,"Lanrian","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:59:16.744Z","2020-11-21T06:09:53.674Z","2200-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",60,,"rohinmshah","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T16:59:13.609Z","2020-11-21T06:09:53.674Z","2200-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",24,,"Ben Pace","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T20:04:38.093Z","2020-11-21T06:09:53.674Z","2200-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",25,,"Ben Pace","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T20:04:39.915Z","2020-11-21T06:09:53.674Z","2200-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",26,,"Ben Pace","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T20:04:39.917Z","2020-11-21T06:09:53.674Z","2200-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",28,,"Ben Pace","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T20:07:27.192Z","2020-11-21T06:09:53.674Z","2200-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",22,,"Ben Pace","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T20:07:28.639Z","2020-11-21T06:09:53.674Z","2200-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",21,,"Ben Pace","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T20:07:29.346Z","2020-11-21T06:09:53.674Z","2200-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",20,,"Ben Pace","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T20:07:29.853Z","2020-11-21T06:09:53.674Z","2200-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",55,,"Measure","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:29:47.110Z","2020-11-21T06:09:53.674Z","2200-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",28,,"peterbarnett","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:58:12.505Z","2020-11-21T06:09:53.674Z","2200-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",27,,"Self_Optimization","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:23:23.955Z","2020-11-21T06:09:53.674Z","2200-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",26,,"Self_Optimization","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:23:24.518Z","2020-11-21T06:09:53.674Z","2200-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",25,,"Self_Optimization","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:23:26.086Z","2020-11-21T06:09:53.674Z","2200-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",15,,"Davidmanheim","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:47:50.514Z","2020-11-21T06:09:53.674Z","2200-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",65,,"Alibi","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T18:09:14.356Z","2020-11-21T06:09:53.674Z","2200-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",40,,"Rafael Harth","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:01:15.995Z","2020-11-21T06:09:53.674Z","2200-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",50,,"Rana Dexsin","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:23:52.774Z","2020-11-21T06:09:53.674Z","2200-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",70,,"Vanilla_cabs","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:46:51.536Z","2020-11-21T06:09:53.674Z","2200-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",40,,"Ben Pace","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T20:02:30.528Z","2020-11-21T06:09:53.674Z","2200-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",20,,"Ben Pace","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T20:04:36.424Z","2020-11-21T06:09:53.674Z","2200-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",60,,"alokja","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T22:10:29.369Z","2020-11-21T06:02:30.224Z","2200-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",95,,"alokja","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T22:10:15.021Z","2020-11-21T06:02:30.224Z","2200-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",66,,"__nobody","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T23:48:48.488Z","2020-11-21T06:02:30.224Z","2200-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",50,,"Mark Xu","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:13:32.282Z","2020-11-21T06:02:30.224Z","2200-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",47,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:15:36.388Z","2020-11-21T06:02:30.224Z","2200-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",2,,"digital_carver","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T11:41:35.249Z","2020-11-21T06:02:30.224Z","2200-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",60,,"Pialgo","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T09:33:40.637Z","2020-11-21T06:02:30.224Z","2200-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",64,,"TurnTrout","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:11:28.222Z","2020-11-21T06:02:30.224Z","2200-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",57,,"habryka","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:52:27.163Z","2020-11-21T06:02:30.224Z","2200-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",35,,"Amanda N","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T22:05:42.215Z","2020-11-21T06:02:30.224Z","2200-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",57,,"Lanrian","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:57:22.640Z","2020-11-21T06:02:30.224Z","2200-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",44,,"Lanrian","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:57:24.040Z","2020-11-21T06:02:30.224Z","2200-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",54,,"Lanrian","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:57:25.497Z","2020-11-21T06:02:30.224Z","2200-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",46,,"Lanrian","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:57:26.195Z","2020-11-21T06:02:30.224Z","2200-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",40,,"Lanrian","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:57:27.920Z","2020-11-21T06:02:30.224Z","2200-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",68,,"Lanrian","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:57:29.165Z","2020-11-21T06:02:30.224Z","2200-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",64,,"Lanrian","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:57:30.638Z","2020-11-21T06:02:30.224Z","2200-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",54,,"Lanrian","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:57:31.285Z","2020-11-21T06:02:30.224Z","2200-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",50,,"Lanrian","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:57:31.933Z","2020-11-21T06:02:30.224Z","2200-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",45,,"Lanrian","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:57:32.532Z","2020-11-21T06:02:30.224Z","2200-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",44,,"Lanrian","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:58:18.473Z","2020-11-21T06:02:30.224Z","2200-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",40,,"rohinmshah","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T16:58:23.840Z","2020-11-21T06:02:30.224Z","2200-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",60,,"rohinmshah","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T16:58:18.146Z","2020-11-21T06:02:30.224Z","2200-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",75,,"Measure","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:28:51.850Z","2020-11-21T06:02:30.224Z","2200-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",80,,"Measure","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:28:54.950Z","2020-11-21T06:02:30.224Z","2200-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",71,,"peterbarnett","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:57:42.199Z","2020-11-21T06:02:30.224Z","2200-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",78,,"peterbarnett","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T23:57:46.731Z","2020-11-21T06:02:30.224Z","2200-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",70,,"Self_Optimization","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:22:40.632Z","2020-11-21T06:02:30.224Z","2200-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",95,,"Davidmanheim","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:47:39.209Z","2020-11-21T06:02:30.224Z","2200-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",65,,"Rafael Harth","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T10:01:34.640Z","2020-11-21T06:02:30.224Z","2200-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",72,,"Rana Dexsin","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T12:24:10.794Z","2020-11-21T06:02:30.224Z","2200-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",40,,"Vanilla_cabs","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:45:53.805Z","2020-11-21T06:02:30.224Z","2200-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",25,,"Ben Pace","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T20:01:29.337Z","2020-11-21T06:02:30.224Z","2200-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",35,,"Ben Pace","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T20:01:57.259Z","2020-11-21T06:02:30.224Z","2200-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",85,,"__nobody","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T23:48:09.213Z","2020-11-21T06:02:30.224Z","2200-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",97,,"davatk","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-26T16:48:57.000Z","2015-07-19T16:52:14.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",43,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T23:18:08.000Z","2015-07-19T16:52:14.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",95,,"Raahul_Kumar","JoshuaZ","No mammal has been revived from cryogenic freezing, succeed with a mouse first, then a pig.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-21T04:43:45.000Z","2015-07-19T16:52:14.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",99,,"btrettel","JoshuaZ","Much closer to 100% than 99%. The more I read about cryonics the less I believe both that current technology is adequate and that anyone will consider revival before 2040.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-05T22:49:27.000Z","2015-07-19T16:52:14.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",98,,"btrettel","JoshuaZ","Thought some more about this. I think it's unlikely there will be many revival attempts by this year, and success is still unlikely.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-04T22:55:34.000Z","2015-07-19T16:52:14.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",99,,"espore","JoshuaZ","Doesn't seem likely and no drive to improve the technology",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-02T20:52:38.000Z","2015-07-19T16:52:14.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",93,,"supinf","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-31T00:14:08.000Z","2015-07-19T16:52:14.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",80,,"EloiseRosen","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-27T17:21:14.000Z","2015-07-19T16:52:14.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",99,,"David","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-25T08:55:15.000Z","2015-07-19T16:52:14.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",99,,"PseudonymousUser","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-09T04:21:57.000Z","2015-07-19T16:52:14.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",70,,"wizzwizz4","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-13T16:45:13.567Z","2015-07-19T16:52:14.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",99,,"wizzwizz4","JoshuaZ","Never mind – this is ""happens"", not ""possible"". Nobody's going to be suspended For Science, so we'll have to be able to reverse some cause of legal death too; a vegetative state doesn't count.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-13T16:51:52.902Z","2015-07-19T16:52:14.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",95,,"Baeboo","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T03:17:49.483Z","2015-07-19T16:52:14.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",90,,"kiimberlie","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-16T19:48:14.000Z","2015-07-19T16:52:14.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",91,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-19T15:53:46.362Z","2015-07-19T16:52:14.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",90,,"amrav","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-13T17:16:55.250Z","2015-07-19T16:52:14.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",85,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-19T16:52:14.000Z","2015-07-19T16:52:14.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",90,,"btrettel","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-19T17:18:37.000Z","2015-07-19T16:52:14.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",70,,"Madplatypus","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-20T21:48:28.000Z","2015-07-19T16:52:14.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",90,,"jesselevine","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-21T00:22:48.000Z","2015-07-19T16:52:14.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",30,,"Endfall","JoshuaZ","Allowing for improvement of cryonic technology itself. If said remains static, then 60%.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-22T05:17:32.000Z","2015-07-19T16:52:14.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",90,,"daccount10","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-02T02:46:12.000Z","2015-07-19T16:52:14.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",95,,"btrettel","JoshuaZ","What's the definition of revival for the purposes of this prediction? Would being in a vegetative state count?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-04T17:46:15.000Z","2015-07-19T16:52:14.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",95,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T22:54:07.000Z","2015-07-19T16:52:14.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",1,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-02T20:51:00.000Z","2016-10-07T15:07:03.000Z","2026-10-07T15:07:03.000Z"
"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",0,,"timmartin","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-04T15:18:52.000Z","2016-10-07T15:07:03.000Z","2026-10-07T15:07:03.000Z"
"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",0,,"daccount10","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-22T06:17:45.000Z","2016-10-07T15:07:03.000Z","2026-10-07T15:07:03.000Z"
"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",0,,"Temeraire","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-19T00:10:29.000Z","2016-10-07T15:07:03.000Z","2026-10-07T15:07:03.000Z"
"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",0,,"WilliamBerkeley","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-13T02:55:15.000Z","2016-10-07T15:07:03.000Z","2026-10-07T15:07:03.000Z"
"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",0,,"Chri","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-04T09:24:34.000Z","2016-10-07T15:07:03.000Z","2026-10-07T15:07:03.000Z"
"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",0,,"Balazs","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-27T23:43:51.000Z","2016-10-07T15:07:03.000Z","2026-10-07T15:07:03.000Z"
"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",0,,"two2thehead","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-05T01:34:58.000Z","2016-10-07T15:07:03.000Z","2026-10-07T15:07:03.000Z"
"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",1,,"Porejide","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-03T01:15:46.000Z","2016-10-07T15:07:03.000Z","2026-10-07T15:07:03.000Z"
"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",1,,"helldalgo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-17T16:27:58.000Z","2016-10-07T15:07:03.000Z","2026-10-07T15:07:03.000Z"
"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",0,,"EloiseRosen","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-14T02:43:56.000Z","2016-10-07T15:07:03.000Z","2026-10-07T15:07:03.000Z"
"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",2,,"splorridge","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T20:29:14.000Z","2016-10-07T15:07:03.000Z","2026-10-07T15:07:03.000Z"
"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",1,,"penten","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T08:39:31.000Z","2016-10-07T15:07:03.000Z","2026-10-07T15:07:03.000Z"
"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",36,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-08T19:47:09.000Z","2016-10-07T15:07:03.000Z","2026-10-07T15:07:03.000Z"
"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",0,,"Dapple","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T22:18:38.000Z","2016-10-07T15:07:03.000Z","2026-10-07T15:07:03.000Z"
"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",0,,"bobpage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T15:11:06.000Z","2016-10-07T15:07:03.000Z","2026-10-07T15:07:03.000Z"
"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",0,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T15:07:03.000Z","2016-10-07T15:07:03.000Z","2026-10-07T15:07:03.000Z"
"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",0,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-03T21:35:06.000Z","2016-10-07T15:07:03.000Z","2026-10-07T15:07:03.000Z"
"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",0,,"deleteyourbrain","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T02:54:04.043Z","2016-10-07T15:07:03.000Z","2026-10-07T15:07:03.000Z"
"United States will invade Australia and take over",0,,"davatk","tjross",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-01T23:13:38.000Z","2010-03-23T18:35:24.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"United States will invade Australia and take over",0,,"Baeboo","tjross",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-25T04:50:54.000Z","2010-03-23T18:35:24.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"United States will invade Australia and take over",0,,"deleteyourbrain","tjross","would be funny",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T01:47:41.806Z","2010-03-23T18:35:24.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"United States will invade Australia and take over",0,,"Baeboo","tjross",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-16T02:12:00.393Z","2010-03-23T18:35:24.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"United States will invade Australia and take over",1,,"pranomostro","tjross",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-15T21:52:27.528Z","2010-03-23T18:35:24.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"United States will invade Australia and take over",1,,"Athrithalix","tjross",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-22T10:10:23.000Z","2010-03-23T18:35:24.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"United States will invade Australia and take over",4,,"themusicgod1","tjross","1) China invades Australia after taking south china sea
2) US liberates what's left of australia from china. Not likely but possible imho",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T23:01:29.000Z","2010-03-23T18:35:24.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"United States will invade Australia and take over",1,,"Houshalter","tjross","This is one of the dumbest predictions I've seen here yet.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-06-13T02:28:39.000Z","2010-03-23T18:35:24.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"United States will invade Australia and take over",10,,"alicewilson","tjross","this is the stupidist guess ever",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-04-21T02:40:56.000Z","2010-03-23T18:35:24.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"United States will invade Australia and take over",90,,"kassey","tjross","only reason I want this to happen is so I can live here!!!
Tay you should become pres.!",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-03-23T21:43:22.000Z","2010-03-23T18:35:24.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"United States will invade Australia and take over",94,,"tjross","tjross",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-03-23T18:35:24.000Z","2010-03-23T18:35:24.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"United States will invade Australia and take over",0,,"Tuxedage","tjross",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-07T01:30:52.000Z","2010-03-23T18:35:24.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"United States will invade Australia and take over",1,,"najdorf","tjross",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-06T23:32:47.000Z","2010-03-23T18:35:24.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"United States will invade Australia and take over",0,,"JoshuaZ","tjross",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-29T18:20:09.000Z","2010-03-23T18:35:24.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"United States will invade Australia and take over",1,,"Emanuel Rylke","tjross",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-29T14:55:51.000Z","2010-03-23T18:35:24.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"United States will invade Australia and take over",0,,"gwern","tjross","wow.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-29T10:00:17.000Z","2010-03-23T18:35:24.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"United States will invade Australia and take over",1,,"MrHen","tjross",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-03-30T18:26:54.000Z","2010-03-23T18:35:24.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"United States will invade Australia and take over",0,,"MrHen","tjross",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-03-30T18:26:43.000Z","2010-03-23T18:35:24.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"United States will invade Australia and take over",5,,"Alyssa.P","tjross","no chance :)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-03-23T21:40:44.000Z","2010-03-23T18:35:24.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"United States will invade Australia and take over",0,,"NickN","tjross",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-30T17:59:46.978Z","2010-03-23T18:35:24.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"United States will invade Australia and take over",1,,"bobpage","tjross",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-16T05:06:52.000Z","2010-03-23T18:35:24.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",40,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-06-17T20:12:38.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:38.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",55,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-06-17T20:22:32.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:38.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",20,,"kallman","gwern","Aww, your enthusiasm is catching. Was going to say 90 against.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-06-22T06:03:11.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:38.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",90,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-12T14:17:48.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:38.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",20,,"muflax","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-26T22:24:37.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:38.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",48,,"lavalamp","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-10T23:47:08.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:38.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",70,,"faul_sname","gwern","The 30% uncertainty comes from existential risks.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-01T08:32:28.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:38.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",40,,"Konkvistador","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-21T21:13:37.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:38.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",20,,"Tuxedage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-03T19:34:26.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:38.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",66,,"adbge","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-29T23:04:50.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:38.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",19,,"Cy Fleming","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-20T05:20:51.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:38.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",30,,"Qiaochu","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-03T21:10:16.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:38.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",50,,"Raziel","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-07T17:45:59.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:38.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",25,,"artir","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-16T17:57:42.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:38.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",100,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-16T22:20:56.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:38.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",76,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-08T21:04:12.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:38.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",54,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-08T22:11:15.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:38.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",20,,"davatk","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-26T22:35:05.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:38.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",25,,"kiimberlie","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-16T19:52:13.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:38.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",60,,"wassname","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-08-12T06:32:41.000Z","2011-06-17T20:12:38.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",60,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:05:21.979Z","2011-06-17T20:12:38.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",0,,"NickN","raavin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T01:24:47.929Z","2010-11-18T00:08:14.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",90,,"raavin","raavin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-18T00:08:14.000Z","2010-11-18T00:08:14.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",5,,"gwern","raavin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-18T18:17:59.000Z","2010-11-18T00:08:14.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",5,,"kallman","raavin","There's a mountain of evidence, has been for decades.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-20T06:11:41.000Z","2010-11-18T00:08:14.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",0,,"Anubhav","raavin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-12T13:59:20.000Z","2010-11-18T00:08:14.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",5,,"waveman","raavin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-01T05:17:39.000Z","2010-11-18T00:08:14.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",2,,"ejlflop","raavin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-11T00:32:04.000Z","2010-11-18T00:08:14.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",0,,"PseudonymousUser","raavin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-13T15:50:00.000Z","2010-11-18T00:08:14.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",1,,"gimpf","raavin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-12-12T18:04:55.000Z","2010-11-18T00:08:14.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",1,,"JoshuaZ","raavin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-03T23:20:05.000Z","2010-11-18T00:08:14.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",0,,"splorridge","raavin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-13T10:43:58.000Z","2010-11-18T00:08:14.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",3,,"taryneast","raavin","97% of science papers say it's true...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-02T02:37:26.000Z","2010-11-18T00:08:14.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","raavin","The IPCC climate report has covered this in detail. Not just 2022, climate change has been proved in spades.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-02T06:59:31.000Z","2010-11-18T00:08:14.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",3,,"waveman","raavin","Warming appears to be continuing",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-19T00:25:19.000Z","2010-11-18T00:08:14.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",1,,"HonoreDB","raavin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-20T13:25:17.000Z","2010-11-18T00:08:14.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",13,,"themusicgod1","raavin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-14T06:38:07.000Z","2010-11-18T00:08:14.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",5,,"two2thehead","raavin","Five percent is generous from my layman pov",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-16T05:02:02.000Z","2010-11-18T00:08:14.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",4,,"pranomostro","raavin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:23:31.675Z","2010-11-18T00:08:14.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",1,,"telegrafista","raavin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-14T16:03:24.743Z","2010-11-18T00:08:14.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",0,,"Baeboo","raavin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-15T04:09:25.504Z","2010-11-18T00:08:14.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",70,,"lukeprog","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-04T01:53:41.000Z","2012-09-04T01:53:41.000Z","2021-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",50,,"William-Quixote","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-08T17:34:21.000Z","2012-09-04T01:53:41.000Z","2021-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",80,,"NathanMcKnight","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-19T12:46:13.000Z","2012-09-04T01:53:41.000Z","2021-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",95,,"Ken","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-12T16:39:51.000Z","2012-09-04T01:53:41.000Z","2021-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",45,,"D_Malik","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-12-17T17:18:30.000Z","2012-09-04T01:53:41.000Z","2021-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",80,,"Tuxedage","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-03T19:42:47.000Z","2012-09-04T01:53:41.000Z","2021-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",50,,"Qiaochu","lukeprog","I would've estimated lower but then I remembered the possibility of non-governmental parties doing this (e.g. SpaceX). ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-03T21:07:15.000Z","2012-09-04T01:53:41.000Z","2021-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",65,,"gimpf","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-03T21:23:47.000Z","2012-09-04T01:53:41.000Z","2021-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",85,,"RandomThinker","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-04T04:30:14.000Z","2012-09-04T01:53:41.000Z","2021-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",82,,"JoshuaZ","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T16:15:12.000Z","2012-09-04T01:53:41.000Z","2021-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",98,,"Baeboo","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-10T20:49:26.000Z","2012-09-04T01:53:41.000Z","2021-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",83,,"Pablo","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-27T23:20:27.000Z","2012-09-04T01:53:41.000Z","2021-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",65,,"JoshuaZ","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-04T02:18:17.000Z","2012-09-04T01:53:41.000Z","2021-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",85,,"Emanuel Rylke","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-04T07:35:37.000Z","2012-09-04T01:53:41.000Z","2021-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",80,,"bsm","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-04T13:21:22.000Z","2012-09-04T01:53:41.000Z","2021-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",90,,"bknakker","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-18T20:43:22.000Z","2012-09-04T01:53:41.000Z","2021-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",70,,"ygert","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-12-16T17:50:16.000Z","2012-09-04T01:53:41.000Z","2021-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",33,,"najdorf","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-06T20:28:23.000Z","2012-09-04T01:53:41.000Z","2021-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",93,,"themusicgod1","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T15:32:24.000Z","2012-09-04T01:53:41.000Z","2021-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",98,,"pranomostro","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-10T16:06:05.000Z","2012-09-04T01:53:41.000Z","2021-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",40,,"Jayson Virissimo","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-15T11:11:28.000Z","2011-11-15T11:11:28.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",80,,"RobertLumley","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-15T13:44:45.000Z","2011-11-15T11:11:28.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",60,,"chemotaxis101","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-15T20:09:34.000Z","2011-11-15T11:11:28.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",90,,"Anubhav","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-16T04:16:20.000Z","2011-11-15T11:11:28.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",80,,"kilobug","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-18T17:17:28.000Z","2011-11-15T11:11:28.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",90,,"Leo","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-25T12:30:05.000Z","2011-11-15T11:11:28.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",70,,"Tuxedage","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-13T04:47:32.000Z","2011-11-15T11:11:28.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",84,,"Baeboo","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T02:42:39.742Z","2011-11-15T11:11:28.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",80,,"amadeu","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-07T20:18:11.865Z","2011-11-15T11:11:28.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",70,,"Jayson Virissimo","Jayson Virissimo","whoops, originally had this at 2050, but changed it",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-15T14:14:13.000Z","2011-11-15T11:11:28.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",83,,"gwern","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-15T22:09:44.000Z","2011-11-15T11:11:28.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",90,,"faws","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-13T18:51:36.000Z","2011-11-15T11:11:28.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",90,,"RandomThinker","Jayson Virissimo","Harder to add states now",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-15T10:14:47.000Z","2011-11-15T11:11:28.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",93,,"spqr0a1","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-16T07:33:39.000Z","2011-11-15T11:11:28.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",30,,"NathanMcKnight","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-09T13:02:24.000Z","2011-11-15T11:11:28.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",55,,"JoshuaZ","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-11T00:08:14.000Z","2011-11-15T11:11:28.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",80,,"Ken","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-12T16:57:38.000Z","2011-11-15T11:11:28.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",44,,"themusicgod1","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T15:36:51.000Z","2011-11-15T11:11:28.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",45,,"themusicgod1","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-16T20:15:25.000Z","2011-11-15T11:11:28.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",67,,"pranomostro","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:32:39.006Z","2011-11-15T11:11:28.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",60,,"pranomostro","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:33:19.178Z","2011-11-15T11:11:28.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",95,,"eukaryotepredicts","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-09T00:21:54.588Z","2011-11-15T11:11:28.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",90,,"amadeu","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-07T23:04:27.624Z","2011-11-15T11:11:28.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",43,,"TurnTrout","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:29:39.254Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",2,,"Flavio B","Michael H","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T17:20:14.267Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",65,,"Yousif","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T22:21:44.792Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",90,,"Emiya","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:50:40.594Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",30,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:43:01.869Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",31,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:43:01.368Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",43,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:41:06.565Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",83,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:29:37.067Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",70,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:16:06.041Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",75,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:15:24.596Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",80,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:15:17.946Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",85,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:15:16.826Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",98,,"Pialgo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:07:14.440Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",95,,"Pialgo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:06:54.859Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",90,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T16:59:39.393Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",85,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T16:59:32.499Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",80,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T16:58:49.787Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",98,,"Perhaps","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T15:19:06.292Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",75,,"ViktorThink","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:19:12.293Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",90,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:12:43.405Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",85,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:12:38.719Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",63,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:12:37.813Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",47,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:12:37.400Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",75,,"adamShimi","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:57:22.463Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",90,,"AnthonyC","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:46:36.789Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",54,,"avturchin","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T08:37:09.959Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",99,,"CellBioGuy","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T07:48:07.490Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",93,,"damiensnyder","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T03:23:18.894Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",95,,"Razied","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T23:55:43.476Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",77,,"elephantiskon","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T22:32:22.075Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",35,,"elephantiskon","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T22:31:11.448Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",23,,"elephantiskon","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T22:31:10.370Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",35,,"elephantiskon","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T22:31:08.778Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",32,,"elephantiskon","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T22:30:27.747Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",33,,"elephantiskon","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T22:30:06.614Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",42,,"elephantiskon","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T22:30:06.371Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",49,,"elephantiskon","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T22:30:06.369Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",53,,"elephantiskon","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T22:30:05.114Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",54,,"elephantiskon","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T22:30:02.280Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",50,,"Michael H","Michael H","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T19:38:27.386Z","2020-11-30T19:38:27.378Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",64,,"libero","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T09:02:04.599Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",15,,"Geoffrey Wood","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:32:39.455Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",25,,"Benjamin Rachbach","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:21:50.540Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",20,,"Eli Lifland","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T20:34:30.369Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",30,,"Eli Lifland","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T20:34:19.430Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",15,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T19:35:28.527Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",65,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T19:35:25.314Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",15,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T19:34:21.053Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",20,,"philh","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T19:33:58.476Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",30,,"philh","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T19:29:04.798Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",17,,"ete","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T15:15:31.618Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",26,,"Oskar Mathiasen","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T11:54:33.726Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",10,,"pepe_prime","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T11:35:44.617Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",17,,"pepe_prime","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T11:28:09.965Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",89,,"Polytopos","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T00:26:22.046Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",85,,"Polytopos","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T00:26:20.066Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",83,,"Polytopos","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T00:26:15.342Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",81,,"Polytopos","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T00:26:09.134Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",70,,"Polytopos","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T00:26:07.743Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",88,,"Polytopos","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T00:26:05.692Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",79,,"Polytopos","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T00:24:33.183Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",25,,"ejacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T23:59:29.983Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",15,,"ejacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T23:59:12.776Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",13,,"peterbarnett","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T23:43:33.691Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",11,,"Zvi","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T21:55:38.971Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",17,,"Dagon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T20:31:20.742Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",36,,"D0TheMath","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T17:11:00.583Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",34,,"D0TheMath","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T17:11:00.580Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",70,,"D0TheMath","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T17:10:55.825Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",74,,"D0TheMath","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T17:10:05.630Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",20,,"NunoSempere","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:24:17.222Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",11,,"Bucky","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:19:36.683Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",6,,"Bucky","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:19:14.437Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",11,,"Bucky","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:19:02.916Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",15,,"Bucky","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:19:01.437Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",17,,"Bucky","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:18:37.321Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",13,,"Bucky","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:18:37.319Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",22,,"Bucky","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:18:34.415Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",18,,"Bucky","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:18:34.242Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",15,,"deluks917","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:51:01.495Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",44,,"deluks917","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:40:41.936Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",52,,"deluks917","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:40:39.650Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",19,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T06:17:47.457Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",24,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T06:17:30.153Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",19,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T05:57:37.403Z","2021-01-09T05:39:25.544Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.",30,,"Geoffrey Wood","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:36:51.339Z","2021-01-09T06:47:16.201Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.",95,,"Benjamin Rachbach","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:25:31.731Z","2021-01-09T06:47:16.201Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.",65,,"philh","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T19:23:33.297Z","2021-01-09T06:47:16.201Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.",72,,"Adam Scholl","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T18:21:41.380Z","2021-01-09T06:47:16.201Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.",43,,"Oskar Mathiasen","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T12:07:58.479Z","2021-01-09T06:47:16.201Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.",95,,"pepe_prime","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T11:33:26.206Z","2021-01-09T06:47:16.201Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.",60,,"dxu","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T02:52:03.650Z","2021-01-09T06:47:16.201Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.",15,,"adamzerner","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T00:44:06.352Z","2021-01-09T06:47:16.201Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.",70,,"ejacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T00:02:11.092Z","2021-01-09T06:47:16.201Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.",90,,"Zvi","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T21:58:46.937Z","2021-01-09T06:47:16.201Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.",82,,"Zvi","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T21:58:45.671Z","2021-01-09T06:47:16.201Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.",75,,"Dagon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T20:35:06.135Z","2021-01-09T06:47:16.201Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.",92,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T19:24:00.725Z","2021-01-09T06:47:16.201Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.",82,,"kjz","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T19:19:16.855Z","2021-01-09T06:47:16.201Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.",87,,"D0TheMath","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T17:16:00.975Z","2021-01-09T06:47:16.201Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.",60,,"NunoSempere","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:37:07.067Z","2021-01-09T06:47:16.201Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.",70,,"deluks917","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:48:20.933Z","2021-01-09T06:47:16.201Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.",62,,"Liam Donovan","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T08:09:05.711Z","2021-01-09T06:47:16.201Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.",80,,"ChristianKl","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T12:24:56.278Z","2021-01-09T06:47:16.201Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",65,,"Geoffrey Wood","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:34:57.316Z","2021-01-09T06:33:26.545Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",23,,"Benjamin Rachbach","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:24:23.856Z","2021-01-09T06:33:26.545Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",33,,"Eli Lifland","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T20:37:01.686Z","2021-01-09T06:33:26.545Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",35,,"philh","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T19:20:32.851Z","2021-01-09T06:33:26.545Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",36,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T17:41:28.273Z","2021-01-09T06:33:26.545Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",60,,"Oskar Mathiasen","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T12:06:45.400Z","2021-01-09T06:33:26.545Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",25,,"pepe_prime","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T11:32:07.706Z","2021-01-09T06:33:26.545Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",32,,"Ben Pace","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T05:56:29.786Z","2021-01-09T06:33:26.545Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",35,,"ejacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T00:01:14.195Z","2021-01-09T06:33:26.545Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",25,,"Zvi","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T21:58:07.576Z","2021-01-09T06:33:26.545Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",20,,"Dagon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T20:34:19.704Z","2021-01-09T06:33:26.545Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",43,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T19:19:08.384Z","2021-01-09T06:33:26.545Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",38,,"D0TheMath","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T17:14:47.648Z","2021-01-09T06:33:26.545Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",29,,"D0TheMath","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T17:14:46.006Z","2021-01-09T06:33:26.545Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",28,,"D0TheMath","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T17:14:43.882Z","2021-01-09T06:33:26.545Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",30,,"NunoSempere","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:36:23.753Z","2021-01-09T06:33:26.545Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",45,,"Bucky","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:22:49.192Z","2021-01-09T06:33:26.545Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",51,,"Bucky","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:22:48.663Z","2021-01-09T06:33:26.545Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",32,,"deluks917","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:49:52.059Z","2021-01-09T06:33:26.545Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",60,,"Liam Donovan","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T08:08:45.153Z","2021-01-09T06:33:26.545Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",25,,"ChristianKl","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T12:24:15.016Z","2021-01-09T06:33:26.545Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",50,,"Jacob L","Jacob L","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T19:19:39.551Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",0,,"Jacob L","Jacob L","(This is related to this LessWrong question: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/doPxLgKFHLFY2EbBN/why-is-there-a-clogged-drainpipe-effect-in-idea-generation ) ","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T19:20:00.936Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",50,,"Jacob L","Jacob L","Dunno why it said 0% before","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T19:20:24.590Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",51,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T19:33:59.041Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",70,,"Measure","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:05:48.510Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",64,,"Slider","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:07:03.357Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",67,,"Slider","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:07:04.536Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",63,,"Slider","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:07:05.768Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",64,,"Slider","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:07:06.087Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",66,,"Slider","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:06:55.146Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",72,,"Slider","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:06:55.584Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",65,,"Slider","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:06:56.393Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",58,,"Slider","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:06:56.934Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",45,,"Slider","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:06:58.350Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",80,,"Slider","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:07:00.148Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",64,,"Slider","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:07:05.360Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",65,,"Slider","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:07:09.268Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",65,,"Measure","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:09:28.449Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",81,,"Yonge","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:43:08.900Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",83,,"Yonge","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:43:13.569Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",85,,"Yonge","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:43:17.296Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",67,,"MikkW","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:45:18.702Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",87,,"MikkW","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:45:21.851Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",72,,"MikkW","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:45:22.187Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",76,,"MikkW","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:45:22.764Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",43,,"MikkW","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:45:28.184Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",73,,"MikkW","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:45:29.310Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",43,,"MikkW","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:45:32.480Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",72,,"MikkW","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:45:47.733Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",70,,"VermillionStuka","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T00:45:17.350Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",62,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T00:49:15.068Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",65,,"DanielFilan","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:52:48.458Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",68,,"Austin Chen","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:14:15.042Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",62,,"Austin Chen","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T04:14:15.631Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",53,,"Maxwell Peterson","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:51:04.899Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",64,,"Maxwell Peterson","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:51:33.570Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",67,,"Maxwell Peterson","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:51:37.626Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",66,,"Maxwell Peterson","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T05:51:38.283Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",63,,"df fd","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T06:57:24.442Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",66,,"micpie","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T07:58:27.160Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",62,,"micpie","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T07:58:28.764Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",67,,"micpie","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T07:58:31.277Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",59,,"micpie","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:00:22.841Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",61,,"micpie","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T08:00:24.590Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",80,,"RowanE","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:38:58.572Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",11,,"kilotaras","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T09:13:03.800Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",74,,"jp","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T14:39:15.972Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",99,,"Anton Zheltoukhov","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T10:46:58.025Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",77,,"Andreas S","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T23:55:17.108Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",80,,"jungwon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T23:40:07.806Z","2020-11-20T19:19:39.545Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.",1,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:12:48.621Z","2020-11-30T19:48:07.905Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.",2,,"Yousif","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T22:23:18.335Z","2020-11-30T19:48:07.905Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.",1,,"Owain_Evans","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T10:48:50.674Z","2020-11-30T19:48:07.905Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.",1,,"Emiya","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:51:20.696Z","2020-11-30T19:48:07.905Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.",4,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:31:09.023Z","2020-11-30T19:48:07.905Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.",1,,"TurnTrout","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:30:50.607Z","2020-11-30T19:48:07.905Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.",3,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:17:55.636Z","2020-11-30T19:48:07.905Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.",5,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:17:36.949Z","2020-11-30T19:48:07.905Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.",8,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:17:34.933Z","2020-11-30T19:48:07.905Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.",1,,"Pialgo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:07:43.756Z","2020-11-30T19:48:07.905Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.",5,,"Perhaps","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T15:21:24.904Z","2020-11-30T19:48:07.905Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.",18,,"ViktorThink","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:20:43.442Z","2020-11-30T19:48:07.905Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.",29,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:14:11.487Z","2020-11-30T19:48:07.905Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.",36,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:14:10.693Z","2020-11-30T19:48:07.905Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.",15,,"adamShimi","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:58:28.037Z","2020-11-30T19:48:07.905Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.",3,,"AnthonyC","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:47:12.730Z","2020-11-30T19:48:07.905Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.",56,,"avturchin","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T08:37:49.671Z","2020-11-30T19:48:07.905Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.",3,,"damiensnyder","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T03:24:30.599Z","2020-11-30T19:48:07.905Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.",1,,"VermillionStuka","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T23:14:38.202Z","2020-11-30T19:48:07.905Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.",10,,"lsusr","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T21:26:58.672Z","2020-11-30T19:48:07.905Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.",50,,"Michael H","Michael H","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T19:48:07.914Z","2020-11-30T19:48:07.905Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",25,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-11T03:44:29.465Z","2010-08-02T06:18:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",40,,"PseudonymousUser","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-15T11:14:23.000Z","2010-08-02T06:18:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",30,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-18T02:37:38.000Z","2010-08-02T06:18:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",50,,"kilobug","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-18T17:15:27.000Z","2010-08-02T06:18:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",30,,"Sarokrae","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-30T14:23:36.000Z","2010-08-02T06:18:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",56,,"faws","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-30T19:27:39.000Z","2010-08-02T06:18:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",45,,"JoshuaZ","gwern","Updating. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-02T03:26:11.000Z","2010-08-02T06:18:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",65,,"RandomThinker","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-02T07:29:02.000Z","2010-08-02T06:18:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",25,,"Michael Dickens","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-16T06:37:52.000Z","2010-08-02T06:18:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",25,,"JoshuaZ","gwern","Making consistent with other predictions. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-06T13:22:13.000Z","2010-08-02T06:18:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",40,,"Medea","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-14T18:56:50.000Z","2010-08-02T06:18:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:15:11.000Z","2010-08-02T06:18:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",24,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T01:55:17.000Z","2010-08-02T06:18:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",28,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T21:10:14.750Z","2010-08-02T06:18:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",30,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T15:21:57.643Z","2010-08-02T06:18:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",28,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T16:52:24.764Z","2010-08-02T06:18:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",26,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-11T02:04:03.372Z","2010-08-02T06:18:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",40,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-02T06:18:42.000Z","2010-08-02T06:18:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",50,,"Larks","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-29T22:01:04.000Z","2010-08-02T06:18:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",30,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-24T18:01:25.000Z","2010-08-02T06:18:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",35,,"Ken","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-12T23:37:39.000Z","2010-08-02T06:18:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",70,,"nshepperd","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-08T14:36:33.000Z","2010-08-02T06:18:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",40,,"NathanMcKnight","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-07T21:28:35.000Z","2010-08-02T06:18:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",60,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:18:35.207Z","2010-08-02T06:18:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",55,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T14:15:25.047Z","2010-08-02T06:18:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",50,,"Pablo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-02T03:13:04.000Z","2010-08-02T06:18:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",0,,"Pablo","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-10T14:53:43.607Z","2017-10-12T22:44:33.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",1,,"Pablo","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-17T17:58:34.000Z","2017-10-12T22:44:33.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",0,,"Cato","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-27T06:13:32.882Z","2017-10-12T22:44:33.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",0,,"moyamo","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-06-11T12:52:08.000Z","2017-10-12T22:44:33.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",0,,"Baeboo","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-12T23:53:00.000Z","2017-10-12T22:44:33.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",0,,"Flenser","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-08T05:31:55.000Z","2017-10-12T22:44:33.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",0,,"tedks","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-20T17:31:41.000Z","2017-10-12T22:44:33.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",1,,"Bruno Parga","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-17T21:34:55.000Z","2017-10-12T22:44:33.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",5,,"Medea","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-15T15:54:01.000Z","2017-10-12T22:44:33.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",2,,"Baeboo","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-14T00:15:23.000Z","2017-10-12T22:44:33.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",1,,"two2thehead","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-13T05:48:09.000Z","2017-10-12T22:44:33.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",35,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-12T22:44:33.000Z","2017-10-12T22:44:33.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",1,,"NickN","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T02:59:43.091Z","2017-10-12T22:44:33.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",0,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-25T12:34:24.530Z","2017-10-12T22:44:33.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",1,,"Michael Dickens","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-28T02:49:41.000Z","2017-10-12T22:44:33.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",0,,"aseyfarth","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-26T13:53:13.000Z","2017-10-12T22:44:33.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",1,,"JoshuaZ","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-19T14:58:34.000Z","2017-10-12T22:44:33.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",0,,"bobpage","themusicgod1","it's _2017_ but I feel this one is safe at 0% because lawyers write EOs, not Trump himself",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-13T11:55:57.000Z","2017-10-12T22:44:33.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",5,,"Baeboo","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-13T03:19:06.000Z","2017-10-12T22:44:33.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",20,,"iCrown","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-12T23:36:50.000Z","2017-10-12T22:44:33.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",0,,"JoshuaZ","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T18:35:36.053Z","2017-10-12T22:44:33.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",0,,"jamesrom","themusicgod1","you'd have to be fairly deranged to give this a non-zero prediction",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-07T07:52:36.799Z","2017-10-12T22:44:33.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade",65,,"kallman","kallman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-20T05:51:23.000Z","2010-11-20T05:51:22.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade",80,,"gwern","kallman","Global or US?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-20T23:26:47.000Z","2010-11-20T05:51:22.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade",75,,"anonym","kallman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-27T20:18:17.000Z","2010-11-20T05:51:22.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade",95,,"TheScholar","kallman","The percentage of theist will decline. But it all depends your definition of what a ""god"" is, e.g. does it incl. technological advanced aliens?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-29T09:04:30.000Z","2010-11-20T05:51:22.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade",90,,"stephenh","kallman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-12-11T06:16:44.000Z","2010-11-20T05:51:22.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade",70,,"muflax","kallman","expect it to go up in US etc., but demographic changes might not cause huge differences",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-11T01:02:43.000Z","2010-11-20T05:51:22.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade",90,,"Anubhav","kallman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-11T02:17:40.000Z","2010-11-20T05:51:22.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade",99,,"jesselevine","kallman","Both atheist AND agnostic or atheist OR agnostic?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-22T02:23:23.000Z","2010-11-20T05:51:22.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade",74,,"jesselevine","kallman","upd8",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-22T14:41:53.000Z","2010-11-20T05:51:22.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade",50,,"themusicgod1","kallman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T02:50:34.000Z","2010-11-20T05:51:22.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade",60,,"pranomostro","kallman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:22:18.719Z","2010-11-20T05:51:22.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade",95,,"Nic_Smith","kallman","....but I don't expect the change to very large.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-26T05:42:46.000Z","2010-11-20T05:51:22.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade",75,,"kallman","kallman","Hm. I see there's a lot of enthusiasm for the idea, going to have to edge higher.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-26T08:12:23.000Z","2010-11-20T05:51:22.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade",40,,"gimpf","kallman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-12-12T18:04:16.000Z","2010-11-20T05:51:22.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade",50,,"JoshuaZ","kallman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-03T13:59:00.000Z","2010-11-20T05:51:22.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade",52,,"JoshuaZ","kallman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-22T23:17:42.000Z","2010-11-20T05:51:22.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade",60,,"Jayson Virissimo","kallman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-23T07:49:56.000Z","2010-11-20T05:51:22.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade",60,,"lavalamp","kallman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-10T23:44:36.000Z","2010-11-20T05:51:22.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade",80,,"NathanMcKnight","kallman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-12T05:34:48.000Z","2010-11-20T05:51:22.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade",1,,"two2thehead","kallman","No on global. Parts of Sub-Saharan African have above replacement fertility. India (although not as bad) still counts as a source of an increase in believers. The key word here is *percentage*. Not *total number* of atheist AND agnostic.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-21T03:20:43.000Z","2010-11-20T05:51:22.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade",60,,"EloiseRosen","kallman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-22T16:32:38.000Z","2010-11-20T05:51:22.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade",65,,"pranomostro","kallman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:22:24.731Z","2010-11-20T05:51:22.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.",3,,"bobpage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-28T00:06:52.000Z","2012-09-27T23:58:06.000Z","2116-11-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.",35,,"JoshuaZ","gwern","100 years is a long time. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-28T00:13:24.000Z","2012-09-27T23:58:06.000Z","2116-11-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.",90,,"NathanMcKnight","gwern","...plus, the GOP is strangling itself right now, and there are at least two national third parties, one of which is rapidly absorbing the RINOs. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-28T13:57:43.000Z","2012-09-27T23:58:06.000Z","2116-11-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.",30,,"bsm","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-28T20:21:38.000Z","2012-09-27T23:58:06.000Z","2116-11-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.",40,,"faws","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-29T19:19:34.000Z","2012-09-27T23:58:06.000Z","2116-11-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.",70,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:46:30.629Z","2012-09-27T23:58:06.000Z","2116-11-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.",15,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T02:07:09.783Z","2012-09-27T23:58:06.000Z","2116-11-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.",5,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-27T23:58:06.000Z","2012-09-27T23:58:06.000Z","2116-11-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.",95,,"William-Quixote","gwern","agreed 100 years is a long time",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-28T03:37:46.000Z","2012-09-27T23:58:06.000Z","2116-11-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.",65,,"RandomThinker","gwern","Repub party has only lasted 150 yrs or so.  Decent chance there'll be a third party, plus chance of independent, plus change of name",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-28T08:52:38.000Z","2012-09-27T23:58:06.000Z","2116-11-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.",45,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern","5%? Are you serious?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-29T10:38:57.000Z","2012-09-27T23:58:06.000Z","2116-11-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.",35,,"Ken","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-02T18:33:40.000Z","2012-09-27T23:58:06.000Z","2116-11-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.",25,,"RobertLumley","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-02T22:40:34.000Z","2012-09-27T23:58:06.000Z","2116-11-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.",90,,"sharanga","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-10T05:51:41.000Z","2012-09-27T23:58:06.000Z","2116-11-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.",85,,"kilobug","gwern","Parties don't tend to last that strong for a century.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-10T07:56:07.000Z","2012-09-27T23:58:06.000Z","2116-11-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.",80,,"chemotaxis101","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-13T17:57:58.000Z","2012-09-27T23:58:06.000Z","2116-11-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.",54,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:21:35.000Z","2012-09-27T23:58:06.000Z","2116-11-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.",70,,"vinegar","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-10-25T19:35:34.000Z","2012-09-27T23:58:06.000Z","2116-11-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.",67,,"lavalamp","qap",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-24T18:45:09.000Z","2013-09-21T18:50:50.000Z","2024-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.",70,,"Houshalter","qap",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-01T20:52:38.000Z","2013-09-21T18:50:50.000Z","2024-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.",62,,"JoshuaZ","qap",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-19T21:52:37.000Z","2013-09-21T18:50:50.000Z","2024-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.",55,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","qap",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-12T04:54:43.000Z","2013-09-21T18:50:50.000Z","2024-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.",50,,"qap","qap",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-21T18:50:50.000Z","2013-09-21T18:50:50.000Z","2024-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.",60,,"procran","qap",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-22T02:32:37.000Z","2013-09-21T18:50:50.000Z","2024-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.",65,,"Ben Doherty","qap",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-24T01:26:57.000Z","2013-09-21T18:50:50.000Z","2024-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.",60,,"Jayson Virissimo","qap",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-27T19:04:07.000Z","2013-09-21T18:50:50.000Z","2024-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.",70,,"NathanMcKnight","qap",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-01T03:38:35.000Z","2013-09-21T18:50:50.000Z","2024-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.",70,,"shaldengeki","qap",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-01T17:05:59.000Z","2013-09-21T18:50:50.000Z","2024-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.",76,,"iamchristopher","qap",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-02T20:20:31.000Z","2013-09-21T18:50:50.000Z","2024-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.",67,,"drobb","qap",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-08T21:38:06.000Z","2013-09-21T18:50:50.000Z","2024-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.",75,,"mfb","qap",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-10T23:27:51.000Z","2013-09-21T18:50:50.000Z","2024-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.",45,,"tylercurtis","qap",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-11T15:46:52.000Z","2013-09-21T18:50:50.000Z","2024-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.",75,,"Michael Dickens","qap",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-01T20:30:14.000Z","2013-09-21T18:50:50.000Z","2024-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.",35,,"RandomThinker","qap",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-07-09T01:20:00.000Z","2013-09-21T18:50:50.000Z","2024-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.",70,,"rebellionkid","qap",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-21T20:33:24.000Z","2013-09-21T18:50:50.000Z","2024-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.",85,,"elecnix","qap",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-28T17:47:55.000Z","2013-09-21T18:50:50.000Z","2024-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.",5,,"Baeboo","ceterisparibus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-26T04:15:30.000Z","2011-11-23T17:34:51.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.",3,,"Baeboo","ceterisparibus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-26T04:12:57.000Z","2011-11-23T17:34:51.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.",20,,"pranomostro","ceterisparibus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T23:35:26.000Z","2011-11-23T17:34:51.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.",10,,"Tiresias","ceterisparibus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-20T06:14:42.000Z","2011-11-23T17:34:51.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.",7,,"TrE","ceterisparibus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-29T22:55:12.000Z","2011-11-23T17:34:51.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.",25,,"RobertLumley","ceterisparibus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-27T17:22:59.000Z","2011-11-23T17:34:51.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.",25,,"JoshuaZ","ceterisparibus","Risk goes up as plants age, but goes down as new accidents make people more careful. Not sure that Poisson dis is the right model. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-23T21:39:56.000Z","2011-11-23T17:34:51.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.",30,,"gwern","ceterisparibus","nuclear power plants operating since 1954 or the last 57 years; 2 level 7 accidents for 1 every 28.5 years. odds of next one within 10 years? poisson distribution, but won't bother calculating it",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-23T17:59:46.000Z","2011-11-23T17:34:51.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.",40,,"ceterisparibus","ceterisparibus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-23T17:34:51.000Z","2011-11-23T17:34:51.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.",10,,"pranomostro","ceterisparibus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T23:35:40.000Z","2011-11-23T17:34:51.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.",38,,"themusicgod1","ceterisparibus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-30T17:31:54.000Z","2011-11-23T17:34:51.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.",20,,"seifip","ceterisparibus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-14T09:29:08.000Z","2011-11-23T17:34:51.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.",20,,"Serge","ceterisparibus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-06T18:30:12.000Z","2011-11-23T17:34:51.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.",31,,"JoshuaZ","ceterisparibus","Adjusting upwards due to this: http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/op-eds/second-life-the-questionable-safety-of-life-extensions-russian-nuclear-power-plan",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-13T20:14:54.000Z","2011-11-23T17:34:51.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.",13,,"saturn","ceterisparibus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-11T06:41:49.000Z","2011-11-23T17:34:51.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.",17,,"Serge","ceterisparibus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-06T12:36:01.000Z","2011-11-23T17:34:51.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.",23,,"Grognor","ceterisparibus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-05T01:05:15.000Z","2011-11-23T17:34:51.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.",25,,"gimpf","ceterisparibus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-28T17:47:12.000Z","2011-11-23T17:34:51.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.",40,,"chemotaxis101","ceterisparibus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-26T11:39:27.000Z","2011-11-23T17:34:51.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.",7,,"Anubhav","ceterisparibus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-26T01:52:18.000Z","2011-11-23T17:34:51.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.",45,,"bobpage","ceterisparibus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-24T02:41:17.000Z","2011-11-23T17:34:51.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",7,,"Zvi","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T22:00:27.918Z","2021-01-09T06:41:31.133Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",1,,"ChristianKl","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T12:56:02.304Z","2021-01-09T06:41:31.133Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",19,,"Oskar Mathiasen","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T12:10:25.285Z","2021-01-09T06:41:31.133Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",5,,"Zvi","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T22:00:29.703Z","2021-01-09T06:41:31.133Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",1,,"NunoSempere","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:39:05.446Z","2021-01-09T06:41:31.133Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",5,,"Dagon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T20:37:32.153Z","2021-01-09T06:41:31.133Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",2,,"Dagon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T20:37:34.915Z","2021-01-09T06:41:31.133Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",5,,"Eli Lifland","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T20:39:38.262Z","2021-01-09T06:41:31.133Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",10,,"Eli Lifland","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T20:39:33.771Z","2021-01-09T06:41:31.133Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",1,,"deluks917","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:44:56.150Z","2021-01-09T06:41:31.133Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",25,,"ejacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T00:03:38.689Z","2021-01-09T06:41:31.133Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",25,,"D0TheMath","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T17:17:37.611Z","2021-01-09T06:41:31.133Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",13,,"Raemon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T08:51:34.256Z","2021-01-09T06:41:31.133Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",16,,"Raemon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T08:51:33.704Z","2021-01-09T06:41:31.133Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",19,,"Raemon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T08:51:25.321Z","2021-01-09T06:41:31.133Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",25,,"Raemon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T08:51:24.432Z","2021-01-09T06:41:31.133Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",59,,"Raemon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T08:51:21.636Z","2021-01-09T06:41:31.133Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",39,,"Raemon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T08:51:18.099Z","2021-01-09T06:41:31.133Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",93,,"Polytopos","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T00:39:33.674Z","2021-01-09T06:41:31.133Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",69,,"Polytopos","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T00:30:00.990Z","2021-01-09T06:41:31.133Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",79,,"Polytopos","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T00:30:02.281Z","2021-01-09T06:41:31.133Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",38,,"Raemon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T08:51:17.422Z","2021-01-09T06:41:31.133Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",55,,"Raemon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T08:51:16.652Z","2021-01-09T06:41:31.133Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",48,,"Raemon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T08:51:16.623Z","2021-01-09T06:41:31.133Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",58,,"Raemon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T08:51:16.619Z","2021-01-09T06:41:31.133Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",25,,"philh","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T19:25:55.780Z","2021-01-09T06:41:31.133Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",54,,"Benjamin Rachbach","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:27:38.385Z","2021-01-09T06:41:31.133Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",6,,"pepe_prime","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T02:34:21.251Z","2021-01-09T06:41:31.133Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",15,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T19:27:22.775Z","2021-01-09T06:41:31.133Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",1,,"pepe_prime","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T11:34:45.063Z","2021-01-09T06:41:31.133Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",60,,"Geoffrey Wood","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:39:59.002Z","2021-01-09T06:41:31.133Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",75,,"libero","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T09:20:43.849Z","2021-01-09T06:41:31.133Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ",2,,"HonoreDB","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-29T12:38:24.000Z","2013-08-26T23:42:40.000Z","2028-08-26T23:42:40.000Z"
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ",1,,"Tuxedage","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-30T23:11:40.000Z","2013-08-26T23:42:40.000Z","2028-08-26T23:42:40.000Z"
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ",2,,"mfb","Ben Doherty","Not within that timescale",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-31T15:54:18.000Z","2013-08-26T23:42:40.000Z","2028-08-26T23:42:40.000Z"
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ",1,,"Osuniev","Ben Doherty","You'd need a longer time for society to change its habits so completely that today's 100 % becomes 0 %",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-05T00:40:40.000Z","2013-08-26T23:42:40.000Z","2028-08-26T23:42:40.000Z"
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ",1,,"SatvikBeri","Ben Doherty","Didn't realize the site rounded to integer values",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-06T16:11:43.000Z","2013-08-26T23:42:40.000Z","2028-08-26T23:42:40.000Z"
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ",10,,"Michael Dickens","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-07T22:44:40.000Z","2013-08-26T23:42:40.000Z","2028-08-26T23:42:40.000Z"
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ",1,,"shaldengeki","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-01T17:03:20.000Z","2013-08-26T23:42:40.000Z","2028-08-26T23:42:40.000Z"
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ",0,,"schimmy","Ben Doherty","closer to 0 than 1, at least",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-08T05:35:56.000Z","2013-08-26T23:42:40.000Z","2028-08-26T23:42:40.000Z"
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ",1,,"rebellionkid","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-21T20:37:18.000Z","2013-08-26T23:42:40.000Z","2028-08-26T23:42:40.000Z"
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ",0,,"timmartin","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-05T09:44:35.000Z","2013-08-26T23:42:40.000Z","2028-08-26T23:42:40.000Z"
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ",1,,"Medea","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-08T20:20:27.000Z","2013-08-26T23:42:40.000Z","2028-08-26T23:42:40.000Z"
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ",2,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-17T06:39:53.000Z","2013-08-26T23:42:40.000Z","2028-08-26T23:42:40.000Z"
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ",5,,"Ben Doherty","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-26T23:42:40.000Z","2013-08-26T23:42:40.000Z","2028-08-26T23:42:40.000Z"
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ",1,,"holycow81","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-28T23:35:07.000Z","2013-08-26T23:42:40.000Z","2028-08-26T23:42:40.000Z"
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ",1,,"JoshuaZ","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-31T04:23:53.000Z","2013-08-26T23:42:40.000Z","2028-08-26T23:42:40.000Z"
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ",0,,"SatvikBeri","Ben Doherty","It's still legal to ride horses on USA public roads.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-06T16:10:15.000Z","2013-08-26T23:42:40.000Z","2028-08-26T23:42:40.000Z"
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ",1,,"Roxolan","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-14T20:14:51.000Z","2013-08-26T23:42:40.000Z","2028-08-26T23:42:40.000Z"
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ",1,,"procran","Ben Doherty","Too much capital invested in the driver version for this to happen within 15 years. Some roads/lanes may be off-limits to humans.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-27T23:12:23.000Z","2013-08-26T23:42:40.000Z","2028-08-26T23:42:40.000Z"
"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028",8,,"lavalamp","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-21T04:34:08.000Z","2013-01-12T23:55:01.000Z","2028-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028",10,,"ChristianKl","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-24T17:23:57.000Z","2013-01-12T23:55:01.000Z","2028-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028",1,,"najdorf","Tuxedage","What dhoe said. Good luck though!",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-06T22:51:45.000Z","2013-01-12T23:55:01.000Z","2028-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028",1,,"sweeneyrod","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-14T13:31:31.000Z","2013-01-12T23:55:01.000Z","2028-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028",0,,"jesselevine","Tuxedage","Just based on statistics and people's overconfidence",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-28T20:44:40.000Z","2013-01-12T23:55:01.000Z","2028-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028",46,,"themusicgod1","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T14:51:24.000Z","2013-01-12T23:55:01.000Z","2028-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028",5,,"dhoe","Tuxedage","As I don't know you, I'm just applying a low base rate estimate for anybody making that kind of money",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-15T08:53:08.000Z","2013-01-12T23:55:01.000Z","2028-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028",11,,"JoshuaZ","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-15T15:14:32.000Z","2013-01-12T23:55:01.000Z","2028-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028",2,,"Malgidus","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-27T21:02:21.000Z","2013-01-12T23:55:01.000Z","2028-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028",4,,"gwern","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-06T17:27:44.000Z","2013-01-12T23:55:01.000Z","2028-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028",4,,"paulharris","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-19T01:24:18.000Z","2013-01-12T23:55:01.000Z","2028-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028",1,,"JoshuaZ","Tuxedage","Updating and thinking about it more. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-28T23:47:44.000Z","2013-01-12T23:55:01.000Z","2028-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028",2,,"danohu","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-08T17:37:17.000Z","2013-01-12T23:55:01.000Z","2028-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028",2,,"ioannes","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-20T21:35:02.000Z","2013-01-12T23:55:01.000Z","2028-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028",2,,"Temeraire","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-12T02:17:10.000Z","2013-01-12T23:55:01.000Z","2028-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028",7,,"pranomostro","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:18:05.440Z","2013-01-12T23:55:01.000Z","2028-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028",5,,"Baeboo","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T02:58:49.683Z","2013-01-12T23:55:01.000Z","2028-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028",40,,"Tuxedage","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-12T23:55:01.000Z","2013-01-12T23:55:01.000Z","2028-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",99,,"TheScholar","Jack","I'm not even sure that this problem is solvable.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-28T22:14:46.000Z","2009-10-20T06:22:23.000Z","2020-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",80,,"JoshuaZ","Jack","gwern: Showing this to be undecidable in something like ZFC would likely require completely new techniques. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-29T00:21:34.000Z","2009-10-20T06:22:23.000Z","2020-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",70,,"Anubhav","Jack",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-12T13:44:41.000Z","2009-10-20T06:22:23.000Z","2020-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",70,,"lispozord","Jack",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-05-15T10:53:12.000Z","2009-10-20T06:22:23.000Z","2020-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",95,,"Baeboo","Jack",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-25T04:42:55.000Z","2009-10-20T06:22:23.000Z","2020-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",94,,"Athrithalix","Jack",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-22T09:56:41.000Z","2009-10-20T06:22:23.000Z","2020-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",95,,"davatk","Jack",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-01T23:16:17.000Z","2009-10-20T06:22:23.000Z","2020-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",97,,"pranomostro","Jack",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T23:27:34.000Z","2009-10-20T06:22:23.000Z","2020-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",97,,"Baeboo","Jack",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-26T03:58:35.000Z","2009-10-20T06:22:23.000Z","2020-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",100,,"deleteyourbrain","Jack",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T01:43:27.200Z","2009-10-20T06:22:23.000Z","2020-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",100,,"deleteyourbrain","Jack",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:17:22.235Z","2009-10-20T06:22:23.000Z","2020-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",90,,"aarongertler","Jack",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-05-17T04:59:22.000Z","2009-10-20T06:22:23.000Z","2020-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",70,,"rebellionkid","Jack",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-06-22T23:06:39.000Z","2009-10-20T06:22:23.000Z","2020-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",99,,"Baeboo","Jack",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T03:32:20.147Z","2009-10-20T06:22:23.000Z","2020-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",85,,"jes5199","Jack",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-20T22:08:14.000Z","2009-10-20T06:22:23.000Z","2020-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",92,,"freyley","Jack",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-21T00:40:17.000Z","2009-10-20T06:22:23.000Z","2020-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",55,,"anonym","Jack",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-21T04:37:55.000Z","2009-10-20T06:22:23.000Z","2020-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",25,,"lispozord","Jack",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-11-09T21:15:59.000Z","2009-10-20T06:22:23.000Z","2020-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",90,,"MrHen","Jack",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-02-03T15:56:13.000Z","2009-10-20T06:22:23.000Z","2020-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",90,,"gwern","Jack",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-16T11:47:07.000Z","2009-10-20T06:22:23.000Z","2020-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",70,,"Jack","Jack",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-20T06:22:23.000Z","2009-10-20T06:22:23.000Z","2020-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.",3,,"themusicgod1","Mel Eclarinal",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T03:24:12.000Z","2011-03-16T14:05:39.000Z","2020-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.",5,,"themusicgod1","Mel Eclarinal",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T02:13:22.000Z","2011-03-16T14:05:39.000Z","2020-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.",2,,"lukas","Mel Eclarinal",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-24T14:41:04.000Z","2011-03-16T14:05:39.000Z","2020-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.",1,,"Emanuel Rylke","Mel Eclarinal",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-29T14:23:34.000Z","2011-03-16T14:05:39.000Z","2020-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.",0,,"Baeboo","Mel Eclarinal",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T02:59:27.515Z","2011-03-16T14:05:39.000Z","2020-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.",1,,"JoeK","Mel Eclarinal",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-25T21:21:16.000Z","2011-03-16T14:05:39.000Z","2020-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.",1,,"Anubhav","Mel Eclarinal",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-24T03:33:45.000Z","2011-03-16T14:05:39.000Z","2020-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.",1,,"gwern","Mel Eclarinal","whups",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-23T17:52:01.000Z","2011-03-16T14:05:39.000Z","2020-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.",3,,"JoshuaZ","Mel Eclarinal",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-10T13:53:18.000Z","2011-03-16T14:05:39.000Z","2020-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.",2,,"bobpage","Mel Eclarinal",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-03-18T02:51:38.000Z","2011-03-16T14:05:39.000Z","2020-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.",99,,"DavidPercival","Mel Eclarinal","I'm with Ben, until an alternative is found we cannot even consider eliminating 'clean' nuclear power",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-03-17T01:48:38.000Z","2011-03-16T14:05:39.000Z","2020-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.",99,,"gwern","Mel Eclarinal","this is doable, if you have a few trillion dollars to spare for defueling the reactors and building replacement capacity",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-03-18T15:54:49.000Z","2011-03-16T14:05:39.000Z","2020-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.",0,,"Pablo","Mel Eclarinal",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T19:15:10.843Z","2011-03-16T14:05:39.000Z","2020-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.",0,,"amadeu","Mel Eclarinal",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-07T19:58:32.559Z","2011-03-16T14:05:39.000Z","2020-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.",1,,"Sandra Åhlén","Mel Eclarinal",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-03-17T08:10:44.000Z","2011-03-16T14:05:39.000Z","2020-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.",2,,"Ben Doherty","Mel Eclarinal","It would take too long to replace them with an alternative to shut them all down by 2020",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-03-16T21:23:22.000Z","2011-03-16T14:05:39.000Z","2020-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.",20,,"Mel Eclarinal","Mel Eclarinal",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-03-16T14:05:46.000Z","2011-03-16T14:05:39.000Z","2020-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.",2,,"Athrithalix","Mel Eclarinal",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-22T13:41:32.000Z","2011-03-16T14:05:39.000Z","2020-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.",1,,"pranomostro","Mel Eclarinal",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:23:44.087Z","2011-03-16T14:05:39.000Z","2020-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"aliens invade earth in 2023",0,,"Pablo","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-22T07:10:15.000Z","2017-10-12T20:10:17.000Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"aliens invade earth in 2023",0,,"Flenser","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-08T05:41:18.000Z","2017-10-12T20:10:17.000Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"aliens invade earth in 2023",0,,"Baeboo","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-07T04:11:03.000Z","2017-10-12T20:10:17.000Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"aliens invade earth in 2023",0,,"ekr","themusicgod1","(in the unlikely case this wasn't humorously suggested, this is a mind project fallacy). ~eps.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-01T23:50:22.000Z","2017-10-12T20:10:17.000Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"aliens invade earth in 2023",1,,"Bruno Parga","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-17T21:34:37.000Z","2017-10-12T20:10:17.000Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"aliens invade earth in 2023",1,,"Medea","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-15T15:53:29.000Z","2017-10-12T20:10:17.000Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"aliens invade earth in 2023",0,,"pranomostro","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-10-07T14:03:55.795Z","2017-10-12T20:10:17.000Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"aliens invade earth in 2023",1,,"chemotaxis101","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-27T10:16:08.000Z","2017-10-12T20:10:17.000Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"aliens invade earth in 2023",1,,"Michael Dickens","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-28T03:58:48.000Z","2017-10-12T20:10:17.000Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"aliens invade earth in 2023",1,,"missbethann","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-26T14:46:59.000Z","2017-10-12T20:10:17.000Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"aliens invade earth in 2023",1,,"two2thehead","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-19T18:30:46.000Z","2017-10-12T20:10:17.000Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"aliens invade earth in 2023",0,,"JoshuaZ","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-19T15:00:03.000Z","2017-10-12T20:10:17.000Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"aliens invade earth in 2023",0,,"OisinMoran","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-19T00:33:06.000Z","2017-10-12T20:10:17.000Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"aliens invade earth in 2023",1,,"Athrithalix","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-18T12:51:26.000Z","2017-10-12T20:10:17.000Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"aliens invade earth in 2023",1,,"Baeboo","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-13T03:16:05.000Z","2017-10-12T20:10:17.000Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"aliens invade earth in 2023",1,,"iCrown","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-12T23:37:44.000Z","2017-10-12T20:10:17.000Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"aliens invade earth in 2023",8,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-12T20:10:17.000Z","2017-10-12T20:10:17.000Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"aliens invade earth in 2023",0,,"NickN","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-17T02:48:10.362Z","2017-10-12T20:10:17.000Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.",33,,"Nic_Smith","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-24T21:15:01.000Z","2011-08-03T01:03:53.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.",45,,"JoshuaZ","gwern","Implicit conjunction makes me reduce the estimate, since requires Hanson to die before age 82. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-03T22:13:07.000Z","2011-08-03T01:03:53.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.",5,,"Will Newsome","gwern","Second bobpage, I'll add that there may be life extension or general medical advances in the mean time which Hanson is much more likely than others to take advantage of.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-30T11:46:57.000Z","2011-08-03T01:03:53.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.",10,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T13:12:40.000Z","2011-08-03T01:03:53.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.",50,,"Pablo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-29T23:03:13.000Z","2011-08-03T01:03:53.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.",8,,"bobpage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-03T01:31:40.000Z","2011-08-03T01:03:53.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.",30,,"muflax","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-26T21:18:50.000Z","2011-08-03T01:03:53.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.",55,,"lavalamp","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-10T17:00:31.000Z","2011-08-03T01:03:53.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.",50,,"gwern","gwern","updating on what mindspillage told me",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-01T03:16:17.000Z","2011-08-03T01:03:53.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.",60,,"Konkvistador","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-02T20:44:18.000Z","2011-08-03T01:03:53.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.",70,,"halfwit","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-09T18:32:55.000Z","2011-08-03T01:03:53.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.",20,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T12:10:44.000Z","2011-08-03T01:03:53.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.",56,,"Grognor","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-06T20:54:45.000Z","2011-08-03T01:03:53.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.",58,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T01:25:53.000Z","2011-08-03T01:03:53.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.",60,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-10T20:47:43.582Z","2011-08-03T01:03:53.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.",40,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-03T22:13:29.843Z","2011-08-03T01:03:53.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.",55,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-03T22:13:50.803Z","2011-08-03T01:03:53.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.",50,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-04T02:26:46.725Z","2011-08-03T01:03:53.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.",65,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-03T01:03:54.000Z","2011-08-03T01:03:53.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.",70,,"Porejide","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-04T03:00:18.000Z","2011-08-03T01:03:53.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.",75,,"Nic_Smith","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-03T20:58:20.000Z","2011-08-03T01:03:53.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.",60,,"Konkvistador","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-30T21:32:40.000Z","2011-08-03T01:03:53.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.",60,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-23T22:49:02.298Z","2011-08-03T01:03:53.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"...be an environmental disaster.",25,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T19:14:45.815Z","2021-01-09T05:51:12.987Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...be an environmental disaster.",15,,"NunoSempere","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:35:19.045Z","2021-01-09T05:51:12.987Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...be an environmental disaster.",49,,"D0TheMath","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T17:12:07.956Z","2021-01-09T05:51:12.987Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...be an environmental disaster.",57,,"D0TheMath","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T17:12:12.914Z","2021-01-09T05:51:12.987Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...be an environmental disaster.",40,,"Benjamin Rachbach","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:22:48.583Z","2021-01-09T05:51:12.987Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...be an environmental disaster.",30,,"ejacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T00:00:16.474Z","2021-01-09T05:51:12.987Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...be an environmental disaster.",10,,"jefftk","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T20:53:22.828Z","2021-01-09T05:51:12.987Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...be an environmental disaster.",14,,"Zvi","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T21:56:40.914Z","2021-01-09T05:51:12.987Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...be an environmental disaster.",20,,"Eli Lifland","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T20:37:56.251Z","2021-01-09T05:51:12.987Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...be an environmental disaster.",11,,"Eli Lifland","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T20:37:53.071Z","2021-01-09T05:51:12.987Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...be an environmental disaster.",75,,"deluks917","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:50:02.577Z","2021-01-09T05:51:12.987Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...be an environmental disaster.",30,,"Dagon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T20:33:10.608Z","2021-01-09T05:51:12.987Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...be an environmental disaster.",30,,"Oskar Mathiasen","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T12:04:40.945Z","2021-01-09T05:51:12.987Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...be an environmental disaster.",10,,"Geoffrey Wood","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:33:14.177Z","2021-01-09T05:51:12.987Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...be an environmental disaster.",30,,"pepe_prime","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T11:29:30.205Z","2021-01-09T05:51:12.987Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...be an environmental disaster.",40,,"philh","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T19:16:58.250Z","2021-01-09T05:51:12.987Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...be an environmental disaster.",50,,"Liam Donovan","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T08:08:24.932Z","2021-01-09T05:51:12.987Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...be an environmental disaster.",37,,"libero","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T09:16:47.681Z","2021-01-09T05:51:12.987Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...be an environmental disaster.",15,,"ChristianKl","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T12:21:45.242Z","2021-01-09T05:51:12.987Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032",80,,"Pablo","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-02T03:09:12.000Z","2012-05-25T01:30:05.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032",55,,"JoshuaZ","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-25T05:57:31.000Z","2012-05-25T01:30:05.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032",85,,"Baeboo","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T00:41:06.554Z","2012-05-25T01:30:05.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032",53,,"themusicgod1","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T00:54:52.000Z","2012-05-25T01:30:05.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032",30,,"Tuxedage","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-06-10T03:54:53.000Z","2012-05-25T01:30:05.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032",30,,"Tuxedage","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-06-10T03:54:46.000Z","2012-05-25T01:30:05.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032",80,,"davidiach","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-06-06T10:27:06.000Z","2012-05-25T01:30:05.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032",80,,"army1987","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-06-05T22:22:01.000Z","2012-05-25T01:30:05.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032",80,,"bobpage","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-06-03T13:36:26.000Z","2012-05-25T01:30:05.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032",75,,"Jayson Virissimo","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-29T04:52:58.000Z","2012-05-25T01:30:05.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032",65,,"JoeK","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-25T21:22:43.000Z","2012-05-25T01:30:05.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032",65,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-25T01:30:05.000Z","2012-05-25T01:30:05.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032",75,,"Emanuel Rylke","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-25T09:36:41.000Z","2012-05-25T01:30:05.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032",80,,"gwern","RandomThinker","more cyrillic bombast. Russia's not going anywhere anytime soon.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-27T15:54:31.000Z","2012-05-25T01:30:05.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032",85,,"pranomostro","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-10T20:56:52.925Z","2012-05-25T01:30:05.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032",80,,"seifip","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-14T09:40:04.000Z","2012-05-25T01:30:05.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032",80,,"saturn","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-21T20:00:11.000Z","2012-05-25T01:30:05.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032",70,,"Ben Doherty","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-30T06:35:43.000Z","2012-05-25T01:30:05.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",1,,"krazemon","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-11T15:25:18.809Z","2010-10-26T16:36:46.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",1,,"Pablo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-02T03:09:37.000Z","2010-10-26T16:36:46.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",1,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:49:27.966Z","2010-10-26T16:36:46.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",0,,"NickN","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T04:37:55.012Z","2010-10-26T16:36:46.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",0,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-27T07:34:29.932Z","2010-10-26T16:36:46.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",2,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-18T02:38:47.000Z","2010-10-26T16:36:46.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-26T16:36:46.000Z","2010-10-26T16:36:46.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",5,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T20:19:11.000Z","2010-10-26T16:36:46.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",1,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T15:07:38.002Z","2010-10-26T16:36:46.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",2,,"JoshuaZ","gwern","Updating. Not happening. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-18T03:48:20.000Z","2010-10-26T16:36:46.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",5,,"kilobug","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-18T17:14:44.000Z","2010-10-26T16:36:46.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",4,,"gwern","gwern","for more consistency with http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1522",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-02T16:07:29.000Z","2010-10-26T16:36:46.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",1,,"JoshuaZ","gwern","Updating. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-06T13:21:17.000Z","2010-10-26T16:36:46.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",1,,"Medea","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-14T18:54:53.000Z","2010-10-26T16:36:46.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",1,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-14T18:56:41.000Z","2010-10-26T16:36:46.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",1,,"danielfilan","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-14T23:32:14.000Z","2010-10-26T16:36:46.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",2,,"NathanMcKnight","gwern","I don't see any space program far enough along to land on Mars in the next 6 years. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-07T21:31:53.000Z","2010-10-26T16:36:46.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",1,,"PipFoweraker","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-06T20:43:02.000Z","2010-10-26T16:36:46.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",1,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-17T04:43:15.000Z","2010-10-26T16:36:46.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",1,,"Raahul_Kumar","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-16T06:40:17.000Z","2010-10-26T16:36:46.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",2,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-11T02:14:18.000Z","2010-10-26T16:36:46.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",1,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-11T13:40:22.000Z","2010-10-26T16:36:46.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",1,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:17:25.226Z","2010-10-26T16:36:46.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",0,,"telegrafista","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-14T16:00:33.039Z","2010-10-26T16:36:46.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",0,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-12T00:59:19.409Z","2010-10-26T16:36:46.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030",12,,"Baeboo","Alexander Kruel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-04T04:19:58.109Z","2011-08-17T14:30:13.000Z","2030-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030",14,,"pranomostro","Alexander Kruel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-03T21:52:46.051Z","2011-08-17T14:30:13.000Z","2030-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030",68,,"themusicgod1","Alexander Kruel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T01:53:04.000Z","2011-08-17T14:30:13.000Z","2030-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030",92,,"themusicgod1","Alexander Kruel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-09T19:18:32.000Z","2011-08-17T14:30:13.000Z","2030-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030",30,,"Malgidus","Alexander Kruel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-27T22:17:31.000Z","2011-08-17T14:30:13.000Z","2030-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030",20,,"Pablo","Alexander Kruel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-29T23:19:01.000Z","2011-08-17T14:30:13.000Z","2030-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030",17,,"lavalamp","Alexander Kruel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-10T16:58:43.000Z","2011-08-17T14:30:13.000Z","2030-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030",10,,"Jayson Virissimo","Alexander Kruel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-25T16:19:06.000Z","2011-08-17T14:30:13.000Z","2030-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030",5,,"roxton","Alexander Kruel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-19T22:36:37.000Z","2011-08-17T14:30:13.000Z","2030-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030",45,,"Will Newsome","Alexander Kruel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-14T14:28:29.000Z","2011-08-17T14:30:13.000Z","2030-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030",25,,"Gedusa","Alexander Kruel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-14T10:54:25.000Z","2011-08-17T14:30:13.000Z","2030-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030",5,,"Porejide","Alexander Kruel","I was confused, please ignore the right/wrong",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-25T02:16:45.000Z","2011-08-17T14:30:13.000Z","2030-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030",10,,"fergus","Alexander Kruel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-19T10:01:46.000Z","2011-08-17T14:30:13.000Z","2030-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030",15,,"Alexander Kruel","Alexander Kruel","IBM is combining principles from nanoscience, neuroscience, and supercomputing as part of a multi-year cognitive computing initiative: http://www.kurzweilai.net/ibm-unveils-cognitive-computing-chips-combining-digital-neurons-and-synapses",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-18T13:01:25.000Z","2011-08-17T14:30:13.000Z","2030-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030",30,,"Jach","Alexander Kruel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-18T00:20:14.000Z","2011-08-17T14:30:13.000Z","2030-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030",72,,"bobpage","Alexander Kruel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-17T20:02:54.000Z","2011-08-17T14:30:13.000Z","2030-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030",15,,"gwern","Alexander Kruel","see also http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2818",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-17T16:03:01.000Z","2011-08-17T14:30:13.000Z","2030-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030",16,,"JoshuaZ","Alexander Kruel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-17T14:46:32.000Z","2011-08-17T14:30:13.000Z","2030-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030",10,,"Alexander Kruel","Alexander Kruel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-17T14:30:14.000Z","2011-08-17T14:30:13.000Z","2030-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021",35,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-11T18:18:33.000Z","2011-09-11T16:08:58.000Z","2021-09-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021",40,,"Robert Kosten","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-11T17:54:01.000Z","2011-09-11T16:08:58.000Z","2021-09-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021",40,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-11T16:08:59.000Z","2011-09-11T16:08:58.000Z","2021-09-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021",25,,"PseudonymousUser","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-15T11:15:08.000Z","2011-09-11T16:08:58.000Z","2021-09-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021",77,,"jasticE","gwern","Does she count?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2760568/Cut-healthy-leg-I-run-faster-Sporty-teenager-one-limb-amputated-medical-reasons-wants-OTHER-one-removed.html",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-03T11:24:35.000Z","2011-09-11T16:08:58.000Z","2021-09-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021",36,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T02:36:14.000Z","2011-09-11T16:08:58.000Z","2021-09-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021",2,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:37:08.442Z","2011-09-11T16:08:58.000Z","2021-09-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021",50,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T13:20:33.000Z","2011-09-11T16:08:58.000Z","2021-09-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021",20,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T11:10:42.000Z","2011-09-11T16:08:58.000Z","2021-09-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021",6,,"jasticE","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-09T01:21:36.000Z","2011-09-11T16:08:58.000Z","2021-09-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021",10,,"Metus","gwern","Have to figure this thing out.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-08T20:24:35.000Z","2011-09-11T16:08:58.000Z","2021-09-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021",90,,"Metus","gwern","Too short a time to get the improvement and the change of rules that will allow such a thing to happen.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-08T20:11:45.000Z","2011-09-11T16:08:58.000Z","2021-09-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021",20,,"Ben Doherty","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-21T00:09:58.000Z","2011-09-11T16:08:58.000Z","2021-09-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021",10,,"nshepperd","gwern","Whoops. Hah.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-16T05:51:03.000Z","2011-09-11T16:08:58.000Z","2021-09-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021",90,,"nshepperd","gwern","10 years seems a short time to go from current prosthetics to better-than-biology.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-16T05:50:31.000Z","2011-09-11T16:08:58.000Z","2021-09-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021",10,,"gimpf","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-13T10:56:16.000Z","2011-09-11T16:08:58.000Z","2021-09-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021",30,,"Ken","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-12T15:12:57.000Z","2011-09-11T16:08:58.000Z","2021-09-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021",3,,"lavalamp","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-10T23:45:42.000Z","2011-09-11T16:08:58.000Z","2021-09-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021",15,,"muflax","gwern","the tech seems plausible, but the rule changes not so much",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-11T00:58:12.000Z","2011-09-11T16:08:58.000Z","2021-09-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021",10,,"RandomThinker","gwern","Ouch!  Not in < 10 years time",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-01T07:54:04.000Z","2011-09-11T16:08:58.000Z","2021-09-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”",12,,"Pablo","gwern","Gwern's estimate seems hard to defend in light of his estimate here: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1892",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-02T03:11:40.000Z","2010-08-02T06:28:50.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”",15,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-18T02:38:12.000Z","2010-08-02T06:28:50.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”",15,,"RandomThinker","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-02T07:29:48.000Z","2010-08-02T06:28:50.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”",45,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-14T18:57:02.000Z","2010-08-02T06:28:50.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”",50,,"NathanMcKnight","gwern","Does a mission that fails en route count? What about one that fails on launch? What about one that makes it to Mars, but crashes? ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-07T21:29:45.000Z","2010-08-02T06:28:50.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”",55,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-14T00:03:28.000Z","2010-08-02T06:28:50.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”",58,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-30T18:30:37.000Z","2010-08-02T06:28:50.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”",55,,"Athrithalix","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-22T10:40:35.000Z","2010-08-02T06:28:50.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”",22,,"davatk","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-01T23:13:09.000Z","2010-08-02T06:28:50.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”",38,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T15:08:49.785Z","2010-08-02T06:28:50.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”",0,,"NickN","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T04:37:29.684Z","2010-08-02T06:28:50.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-02T06:28:50.000Z","2010-08-02T06:28:50.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”",48,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T20:19:28.000Z","2010-08-02T06:28:50.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”",25,,"kilobug","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-18T17:14:55.000Z","2010-08-02T06:28:50.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”",20,,"Medea","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-14T18:55:49.000Z","2010-08-02T06:28:50.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”",33,,"danielfilan","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-14T23:33:45.000Z","2010-08-02T06:28:50.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”",10,,"Raahul_Kumar","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-14T03:09:03.000Z","2010-08-02T06:28:50.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”",55,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-17T04:44:04.000Z","2010-08-02T06:28:50.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:19:41.000Z","2010-08-02T06:28:50.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”",56,,"themusicgod1","gwern","oh i'm on this one already. hrm",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:20:33.000Z","2010-08-02T06:28:50.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”",60,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:17:52.623Z","2010-08-02T06:28:50.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”",25,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T14:10:34.083Z","2010-08-02T06:28:50.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”",45,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T14:10:59.607Z","2010-08-02T06:28:50.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.",6,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T00:17:08.096Z","2012-08-14T20:41:59.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.",3,,"Pablo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-30T00:09:52.000Z","2012-08-14T20:41:59.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.",5,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-14T20:41:59.000Z","2012-08-14T20:41:59.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.",15,,"RandomThinker","gwern","These type of social changes happen a lot more suddenly than you think.  In 1988, I'd have rated it at below 10% if you asked if a black person would be elected president in 20 years.  ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-15T01:50:32.000Z","2012-08-14T20:41:59.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.",15,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-15T02:03:34.000Z","2012-08-14T20:41:59.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.",10,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-16T05:01:16.000Z","2012-08-14T20:41:59.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.",15,,"RobertLumley","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-16T15:35:58.000Z","2012-08-14T20:41:59.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.",1,,"tedks","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-20T03:22:44.000Z","2012-08-14T20:41:59.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.",10,,"kilobug","gwern","Around 10% of Americans are atheists, and while being atheist lowers chance of being elected, it also correlates with being highly educated and rational, which should increase odds. So I'm guessing both bias roughly cancel the other.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-23T15:53:01.000Z","2012-08-14T20:41:59.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.",4,,"Grognor","gwern","only six elections, fah",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-24T08:11:17.000Z","2012-08-14T20:41:59.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.",5,,"Porejide","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-25T17:12:34.000Z","2012-08-14T20:41:59.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.",5,,"Zach Aletheia","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-27T19:28:13.000Z","2012-08-14T20:41:59.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.",2,,"bobpage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-15T17:27:40.000Z","2012-08-14T20:41:59.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.",6,,"adbge","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-15T20:06:20.000Z","2012-08-14T20:41:59.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.",9,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T06:12:36.000Z","2012-08-14T20:41:59.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.",20,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-10T20:53:41.379Z","2012-08-14T20:41:59.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.",7,,"pranomostro","gwern","On a second thought, updating downwards.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-10T20:54:39.997Z","2012-08-14T20:41:59.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""",8,,"Tuxedage","sdr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-15T19:11:16.000Z","2013-01-09T09:08:05.000Z","9999-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""",33,,"Cy Fleming","sdr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-15T07:48:24.000Z","2013-01-09T09:08:05.000Z","9999-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""",10,,"gwern","sdr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-09T16:48:22.000Z","2013-01-09T09:08:05.000Z","9999-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""",65,,"sdr","sdr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-09T09:08:05.000Z","2013-01-09T09:08:05.000Z","9999-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""",1,,"qznc","sdr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-15T18:26:45.359Z","2013-01-09T09:08:05.000Z","9999-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""",2,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","sdr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-18T00:38:56.793Z","2013-01-09T09:08:05.000Z","9999-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""",0,,"sty.silver","sdr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-16T07:10:24.900Z","2013-01-09T09:08:05.000Z","9999-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""",6,,"Baeboo","sdr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-15T21:44:55.126Z","2013-01-09T09:08:05.000Z","9999-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""",2,,"jasticE","sdr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-17T02:29:01.000Z","2013-01-09T09:08:05.000Z","9999-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""",80,,"Tuxedage","sdr","Going to revise my estimates.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-18T23:31:55.000Z","2013-01-09T09:08:05.000Z","9999-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""",4,,"themusicgod1","sdr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T14:47:30.000Z","2013-01-09T09:08:05.000Z","9999-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""",2,,"penten","sdr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-09T15:37:24.000Z","2013-01-09T09:08:05.000Z","9999-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""",2,,"pranomostro","sdr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:20:33.054Z","2013-01-09T09:08:05.000Z","9999-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""",0,,"AlexLamson","sdr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-16T23:44:21.850Z","2013-01-09T09:08:05.000Z","9999-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""",7,,"Baeboo","sdr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T02:53:28.947Z","2013-01-09T09:08:05.000Z","9999-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""",15,,"sdr","sdr","I'm feeling saner today.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-24T06:32:47.000Z","2013-01-09T09:08:05.000Z","9999-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""",100,,"DSanders","sdr","Because nobody will know if I was wrong.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-14T01:45:31.000Z","2013-01-09T09:08:05.000Z","9999-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""",1,,"najdorf","sdr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-07T00:47:43.000Z","2013-01-09T09:08:05.000Z","9999-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""",25,,"JoshuaZ","sdr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-19T15:25:00.000Z","2013-01-09T09:08:05.000Z","9999-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?",90,,"AnthonyC","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:46:50.129Z","2020-11-30T19:39:05.763Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?",88,,"TurnTrout","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:30:02.200Z","2020-11-30T19:39:05.763Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?",90,,"CellBioGuy","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T07:48:19.705Z","2020-11-30T19:39:05.763Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?",75,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:00:12.846Z","2020-11-30T19:39:05.763Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?",90,,"Michael H","Michael H","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T19:39:05.770Z","2020-11-30T19:39:05.763Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?",90,,"Pialgo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:07:18.950Z","2020-11-30T19:39:05.763Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?",92,,"damiensnyder","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T03:23:08.003Z","2020-11-30T19:39:05.763Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?",85,,"lsusr","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T21:28:43.610Z","2020-11-30T19:39:05.763Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?",95,,"Razied","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T23:55:56.366Z","2020-11-30T19:39:05.763Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?",1,,"Yousif","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T22:21:53.380Z","2020-11-30T19:39:05.763Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?",21,,"elephantiskon","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T22:30:09.351Z","2020-11-30T19:39:05.763Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?",80,,"ViktorThink","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:20:02.401Z","2020-11-30T19:39:05.763Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?",95,,"Perhaps","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T15:19:25.976Z","2020-11-30T19:39:05.763Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?",80,,"Emiya","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:50:51.408Z","2020-11-30T19:39:05.763Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?",95,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:29:52.996Z","2020-11-30T19:39:05.763Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?",74,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:14:47.731Z","2020-11-30T19:39:05.763Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?",80,,"adamShimi","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:57:34.405Z","2020-11-30T19:39:05.763Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.",20,,"Medea","jasticE",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-11T22:29:08.000Z","2016-01-08T21:40:40.000Z","2026-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.",65,,"jasticE","jasticE",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-08T21:40:40.000Z","2016-01-08T21:40:40.000Z","2026-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.",45,,"Tanner","jasticE",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-08T22:00:19.000Z","2016-01-08T21:40:40.000Z","2026-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.",50,,"EloiseRosen","jasticE",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-09T03:50:49.000Z","2016-01-08T21:40:40.000Z","2026-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.",60,,"Jach","jasticE","Assuming single digit chance max of complications",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-10T02:02:42.000Z","2016-01-08T21:40:40.000Z","2026-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.",1,,"ChristianKl","jasticE","Fixing arbitary single-gene disorders means that you are able to fix disorders in every kind of cell. That includes neurons protected by the blood-brain barrier and that don't tend to doublicate very often. I find that highly unlikely.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-11T21:47:05.000Z","2016-01-08T21:40:40.000Z","2026-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.",52,,"JoshuaZ","jasticE",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-08T22:37:47.000Z","2016-01-08T21:40:40.000Z","2026-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.",80,,"bobpage","jasticE",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-09T09:47:04.000Z","2016-01-08T21:40:40.000Z","2026-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.",43,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","jasticE","Technically capable is a bit hard to define. Unless we have successful gene therapy trials for every single-gene disorder by 2027, this should not count as correct.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-09T20:51:20.000Z","2016-01-08T21:40:40.000Z","2026-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.",45,,"splorridge","jasticE",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-11T10:43:46.000Z","2016-01-08T21:40:40.000Z","2026-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.",24,,"JoshuaZ","jasticE","Thinking about this more, probably anchored badly at first. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-14T20:58:34.000Z","2016-01-08T21:40:40.000Z","2026-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.",3,,"RoryS","jasticE",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-20T17:59:58.000Z","2016-01-08T21:40:40.000Z","2026-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.",12,,"JoshuaZ","jasticE","Updating per ChristianKI's point. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-20T18:21:38.000Z","2016-01-08T21:40:40.000Z","2026-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.",10,,"Raahul_Kumar","jasticE","I think a 1% risk of severe complications is hard to achieve, 0 isn't even in the running. Possible, but unlikely.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-30T04:36:29.000Z","2016-01-08T21:40:40.000Z","2026-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.",1,,"two2thehead","jasticE","""Detecting SGDs AND fixing them AND have near zero risk of severe complications"" is unlikely. Trials certainly but not all three AND conditions.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-26T12:56:51.000Z","2016-01-08T21:40:40.000Z","2026-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.",68,,"VonFoerster","jasticE",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-14T20:52:43.000Z","2016-01-08T21:40:40.000Z","2026-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.",15,,"mortehu","jasticE",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-21T15:48:18.000Z","2016-01-08T21:40:40.000Z","2026-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.",30,,"themusicgod1","jasticE","Close to zero risk of severe complications is too much.  This is coming imho but it's going to be risky at first.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-25T02:47:09.000Z","2016-01-08T21:40:40.000Z","2026-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"US presidents term limits abolished",4,,"pkfalu92","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-09T07:23:01.000Z","2016-11-09T05:27:56.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US presidents term limits abolished",2,,"JoshuaZ","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-09T23:17:56.000Z","2016-11-09T05:27:56.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US presidents term limits abolished",1,,"sflicht","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-09T21:19:26.000Z","2016-11-09T05:27:56.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US presidents term limits abolished",3,,"trishume","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-10T02:44:56.000Z","2016-11-09T05:27:56.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US presidents term limits abolished",1,,"NickN","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T02:04:04.239Z","2016-11-09T05:27:56.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US presidents term limits abolished",13,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-09T05:27:56.000Z","2016-11-09T05:27:56.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US presidents term limits abolished",1,,"penten","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-09T09:06:48.000Z","2016-11-09T05:27:56.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US presidents term limits abolished",1,,"Jayson Virissimo","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-10T02:10:38.000Z","2016-11-09T05:27:56.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US presidents term limits abolished",3,,"jesseh","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-10T11:20:55.000Z","2016-11-09T05:27:56.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US presidents term limits abolished",1,,"EloiseRosen","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-11T19:11:58.000Z","2016-11-09T05:27:56.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US presidents term limits abolished",1,,"bobpage","themusicgod1","Assuming the deadline is fixed",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-15T09:08:11.000Z","2016-11-09T05:27:56.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US presidents term limits abolished",1,,"hedges","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-16T08:38:46.000Z","2016-11-09T05:27:56.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US presidents term limits abolished",1,,"two2thehead","themusicgod1","Less than one percent",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-16T18:32:34.000Z","2016-11-09T05:27:56.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US presidents term limits abolished",3,,"olimay","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-18T06:04:22.000Z","2016-11-09T05:27:56.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US presidents term limits abolished",2,,"pkfalu92","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-19T18:16:59.000Z","2016-11-09T05:27:56.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US presidents term limits abolished",0,,"Baeboo","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-14T07:07:15.000Z","2016-11-09T05:27:56.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US presidents term limits abolished",0,,"Cato","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-06T05:31:59.886Z","2016-11-09T05:27:56.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",21,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T17:41:55.849Z","2021-01-09T06:37:39.950Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",5,,"pepe_prime","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T11:32:51.494Z","2021-01-09T06:37:39.950Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",25,,"Dagon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T20:34:45.374Z","2021-01-09T06:37:39.950Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",16,,"particlemania","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T21:06:02.578Z","2021-01-09T06:37:39.950Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",18,,"particlemania","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T21:06:04.018Z","2021-01-09T06:37:39.950Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",17,,"particlemania","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T21:06:04.955Z","2021-01-09T06:37:39.950Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",21,,"particlemania","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T21:06:08.979Z","2021-01-09T06:37:39.950Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",20,,"particlemania","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T21:06:11.550Z","2021-01-09T06:37:39.950Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",25,,"particlemania","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T21:06:23.084Z","2021-01-09T06:37:39.950Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",24,,"particlemania","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T21:06:26.282Z","2021-01-09T06:37:39.950Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",35,,"Benjamin Rachbach","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:24:54.847Z","2021-01-09T06:37:39.950Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",25,,"particlemania","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T21:06:29.262Z","2021-01-09T06:37:39.950Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",15,,"deluks917","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:49:35.315Z","2021-01-09T06:37:39.950Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",40,,"philh","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T19:22:35.342Z","2021-01-09T06:37:39.950Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",30,,"NunoSempere","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:36:49.163Z","2021-01-09T06:37:39.950Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",17,,"Zvi","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T21:58:31.308Z","2021-01-09T06:37:39.950Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",30,,"Geoffrey Wood","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:36:03.159Z","2021-01-09T06:37:39.950Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",21,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T19:23:14.279Z","2021-01-09T06:37:39.950Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",20,,"steve2152","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T13:15:56.861Z","2021-01-09T06:37:39.950Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",70,,"TurnTrout","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T15:16:53.718Z","2021-01-09T06:37:39.950Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",45,,"TurnTrout","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T15:17:08.936Z","2021-01-09T06:37:39.950Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",50,,"ejacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T00:01:56.657Z","2021-01-09T06:37:39.950Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",33,,"Oskar Mathiasen","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T12:07:32.389Z","2021-01-09T06:37:39.950Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",74,,"D0TheMath","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T17:15:49.610Z","2021-01-09T06:37:39.950Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the UK terrorism threat level be ‘severe’ at 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",0,"YES","William S","Amanda N","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Threat_Levels
Here's why threat level was raised to severe: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-54799377","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.mi5.gov.uk/threat-levels","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:22:03.947Z","2020-11-13T17:06:48.022Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the UK terrorism threat level be ‘severe’ at 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",95,"YES","Amanda N","Amanda N","The threat level according to this wikipedia article looks like it stays at the same threat level for at least months, usually years. This makes me think it won't change in the next week. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Threat_Levels","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.mi5.gov.uk/threat-levels","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:27:36.651Z","2020-11-13T17:06:48.022Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the UK terrorism threat level be ‘severe’ at 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",92,"YES","William S","Amanda N","Correct rule of succession (9/10), but bump it up a bit. Oh, I guess it could always go up though","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.mi5.gov.uk/threat-levels","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:29:20.824Z","2020-11-13T17:06:48.022Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the UK terrorism threat level be ‘severe’ at 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",100,"YES","Ben L","Amanda N","The thread level is currently severe","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.mi5.gov.uk/threat-levels","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:28:57.607Z","2020-11-13T17:06:48.022Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the UK terrorism threat level be ‘severe’ at 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",88,"YES","William S","Amanda N","Base rate seems to be 8/8 times it's been severe in the past, lasts at least 16 days (so predict 8/9, laplace's law of succession, but I think I applied it wrong)","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.mi5.gov.uk/threat-levels","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:26:00.859Z","2020-11-13T17:06:48.022Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the UK terrorism threat level be ‘severe’ at 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",91,"YES","habryka","Amanda N",,"This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.mi5.gov.uk/threat-levels","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:38:14.766Z","2020-11-13T17:06:48.022Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the UK terrorism threat level be ‘severe’ at 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",91,"YES","habrykaTest123123","Amanda N",,"This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.mi5.gov.uk/threat-levels","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:37:37.536Z","2020-11-13T17:06:48.022Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the UK terrorism threat level be ‘severe’ at 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",98,"YES","Nicholas","Amanda N","","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.mi5.gov.uk/threat-levels","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T04:51:57.494Z","2020-11-13T17:06:48.022Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the UK terrorism threat level be ‘severe’ at 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",97,"YES","Linh Chi N","Amanda N","","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.mi5.gov.uk/threat-levels","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-19T23:13:05.180Z","2020-11-13T17:06:48.022Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the UK terrorism threat level be ‘severe’ at 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",80,"YES","Amanda N","Amanda N","This was a test prediction","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.mi5.gov.uk/threat-levels","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:15:00.196Z","2020-11-13T17:06:48.022Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the UK terrorism threat level be ‘severe’ at 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",95,"YES","Andreas S","Amanda N","","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.mi5.gov.uk/threat-levels","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-19T23:11:24.664Z","2020-11-13T17:06:48.022Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the UK terrorism threat level be ‘severe’ at 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",95,"YES","openai-review","Amanda N","","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.mi5.gov.uk/threat-levels","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-19T23:09:27.702Z","2020-11-13T17:06:48.022Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the UK terrorism threat level be ‘severe’ at 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",88,"YES","Ethan Perez","Amanda N","","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.mi5.gov.uk/threat-levels","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:46:17.210Z","2020-11-13T17:06:48.022Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the UK terrorism threat level be ‘severe’ at 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",99,"YES","Dilhan P","Amanda N","All except the very first case of 'severe' have lasted for over 100 days, most lasting for a year or more","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.mi5.gov.uk/threat-levels","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-14T16:45:08.523Z","2020-11-13T17:06:48.022Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the UK terrorism threat level be ‘severe’ at 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",88,"YES","Will B","Amanda N","","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.mi5.gov.uk/threat-levels","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T00:45:52.397Z","2020-11-13T17:06:48.022Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the UK terrorism threat level be ‘severe’ at 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",97,"YES","marcin.kowrygo","Amanda N","","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.mi5.gov.uk/threat-levels","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T17:57:21.245Z","2020-11-13T17:06:48.022Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the UK terrorism threat level be ‘severe’ at 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",95,"YES","mattvdm","Amanda N","","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.mi5.gov.uk/threat-levels","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T10:25:41.462Z","2020-11-13T17:06:48.022Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the UK terrorism threat level be ‘severe’ at 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",70,"YES","marcin.kowrygo","Amanda N","","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.mi5.gov.uk/threat-levels","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T17:18:22.561Z","2020-11-13T17:06:48.022Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the UK terrorism threat level be ‘severe’ at 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",20,"YES","marcin.kowrygo","Amanda N","","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.mi5.gov.uk/threat-levels","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T17:17:39.734Z","2020-11-13T17:06:48.022Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the UK terrorism threat level be ‘severe’ at 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",96,"YES","Nicholas","Amanda N","Seems very unlikely to go back down this quickly even if nothing happens","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.mi5.gov.uk/threat-levels","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:54:37.786Z","2020-11-13T17:06:48.022Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the UK terrorism threat level be ‘severe’ at 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",99,"YES","turret","Amanda N","","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.mi5.gov.uk/threat-levels","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-15T08:57:02.064Z","2020-11-13T17:06:48.022Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the UK terrorism threat level be ‘severe’ at 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",75,"YES","William S","Amanda N","","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.mi5.gov.uk/threat-levels","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:19:13.759Z","2020-11-13T17:06:48.022Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the UK terrorism threat level be ‘severe’ at 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",95,"YES","Abigail T","Amanda N","Analysis below holds up so I doubt it'll be downgraded, but if something happens it might go up","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.mi5.gov.uk/threat-levels","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-16T02:01:29.983Z","2020-11-13T17:06:48.022Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the UK terrorism threat level be ‘severe’ at 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",0,"YES","turret","Amanda N","","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.mi5.gov.uk/threat-levels","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-15T08:56:18.636Z","2020-11-13T17:06:48.022Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ",90,,"jesselevine","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-13T00:33:31.000Z","2015-04-13T00:33:31.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ",45,,"JoshuaZ","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-13T01:42:54.000Z","2015-04-13T00:33:31.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ",25,,"JoshuaZ","jesselevine","Typo. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-13T01:57:01.000Z","2015-04-13T00:33:31.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ",40,,"RoryS","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-13T21:52:02.000Z","2015-04-13T00:33:31.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ",85,,"aoeu","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-19T20:47:14.000Z","2015-04-13T00:33:31.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ",87,,"OisinMoran","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-30T14:14:47.000Z","2015-04-13T00:33:31.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ",25,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","jesselevine","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars#/media/File:Mars_close_appr.png",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-17T04:34:59.000Z","2015-04-13T00:33:31.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ",58,,"themusicgod1","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-30T18:31:42.000Z","2015-04-13T00:33:31.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ",50,,"Baeboo","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T03:34:59.425Z","2015-04-13T00:33:31.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ",5,,"Chri","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-13T07:16:28.000Z","2015-04-13T00:33:31.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ",15,,"Unknowns","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-13T10:44:12.000Z","2015-04-13T00:33:31.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ",70,,"EloiseRosen","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-13T18:31:43.000Z","2015-04-13T00:33:31.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ",25,,"RandomThinker","jesselevine","Only 15 years away.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-15T14:09:11.000Z","2015-04-13T00:33:31.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ",35,,"NathanMcKnight","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-16T15:39:41.000Z","2015-04-13T00:33:31.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ",22,,"JoshuaZ","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-14T00:02:32.000Z","2015-04-13T00:33:31.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ",10,,"Raahul_Kumar","jesselevine","Odds are not good, unless someone develops a nuclear rocket or orbiting propellant depots.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-14T02:52:26.000Z","2015-04-13T00:33:31.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ",55,,"pranomostro","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:07:56.139Z","2015-04-13T00:33:31.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ",30,,"amadeu","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-07T20:35:45.608Z","2015-04-13T00:33:31.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election",98,,"miro","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T06:18:23.464Z","2020-11-04T21:46:45.170Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election",98,,"PlacidPlatypus","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T23:06:41.512Z","2020-11-04T21:46:45.170Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election",86,,"Baeboo","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T04:00:35.438Z","2020-11-04T21:46:45.170Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election",98,,"JoshuaZ","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T19:37:46.968Z","2020-11-04T21:46:45.170Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election",99,,"Michal_Dubrawski","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T18:05:50.661Z","2020-11-04T21:46:45.170Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election",95,,"chemotaxis101","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-07T15:35:26.684Z","2020-11-04T21:46:45.170Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election",98,,"sty.silver","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-07T09:58:42.397Z","2020-11-04T21:46:45.170Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election",99,,"jacobgreenleaf","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-07T00:11:51.232Z","2020-11-04T21:46:45.170Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election",96,,"avi","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-06T01:23:42.605Z","2020-11-04T21:46:45.170Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election",95,,"srconstantin","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-05T11:45:06.641Z","2020-11-04T21:46:45.170Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election",97,,"peter_hurford","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-04T21:46:45.174Z","2020-11-04T21:46:45.170Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election",95,,"true","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T10:45:59.789Z","2020-11-04T21:46:45.170Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election",98,,"vincentluczkow","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-16T07:12:28.874Z","2020-11-04T21:46:45.170Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election",90,,"Reactionaryhistorian","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-09T23:46:55.771Z","2020-11-04T21:46:45.170Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election",91,,"Baeboo","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-09T14:02:34.327Z","2020-11-04T21:46:45.170Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election",94,,"Baeboo","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-07T18:17:17.563Z","2020-11-04T21:46:45.170Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election",95,,"John Smith","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-07T16:43:14.426Z","2020-11-04T21:46:45.170Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election",94,,"JoshuaZ","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-04T23:37:31.125Z","2020-11-04T21:46:45.170Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election",95,,"Deepak","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-04T22:34:52.113Z","2020-11-04T21:46:45.170Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.",5,,"Larks","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-18T08:27:38.000Z","2009-10-17T20:45:51.000Z","3009-10-17T23:59:00.000Z"
"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.",25,,"Arenamontanus","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-19T13:07:26.000Z","2009-10-17T20:45:51.000Z","3009-10-17T23:59:00.000Z"
"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.",90,,"TheScholar","TheScholar","I'm including uploads, resurrections, transfers, etc. ;->. 

If the original is gone, then any accurate copy should be considered the same person.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-03-17T08:28:26.000Z","2009-10-17T20:45:51.000Z","3009-10-17T23:59:00.000Z"
"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.",95,,"army1987","TheScholar","no way!",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-03T23:50:44.000Z","2009-10-17T20:45:51.000Z","3009-10-17T23:59:00.000Z"
"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.",60,,"Anubhav","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T08:27:16.000Z","2009-10-17T20:45:51.000Z","3009-10-17T23:59:00.000Z"
"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.",90,,"Anubhav","TheScholar","Reevaluated probability of apocalypse.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T12:54:37.000Z","2009-10-17T20:45:51.000Z","3009-10-17T23:59:00.000Z"
"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.",3,,"themusicgod1","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T22:55:17.000Z","2009-10-17T20:45:51.000Z","3009-10-17T23:59:00.000Z"
"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.",10,,"pranomostro","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T23:26:33.000Z","2009-10-17T20:45:51.000Z","3009-10-17T23:59:00.000Z"
"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.",7,,"Baeboo","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T01:25:05.766Z","2009-10-17T20:45:51.000Z","3009-10-17T23:59:00.000Z"
"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.",0,,"deleteyourbrain","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T01:43:59.541Z","2009-10-17T20:45:51.000Z","3009-10-17T23:59:00.000Z"
"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.",0,,"Jayson Virissimo","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T11:27:38.000Z","2009-10-17T20:45:51.000Z","3009-10-17T23:59:00.000Z"
"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.",2,,"JoshuaZ","TheScholar","This may run into definitional issues. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-15T15:01:37.000Z","2009-10-17T20:45:51.000Z","3009-10-17T23:59:00.000Z"
"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.",80,,"TheScholar","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-16T17:28:58.000Z","2009-10-17T20:45:51.000Z","3009-10-17T23:59:00.000Z"
"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.",5,,"gwern","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-16T15:52:27.000Z","2009-10-17T20:45:51.000Z","3009-10-17T23:59:00.000Z"
"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.",99,,"Houshalter","TheScholar","Singularity FTW!",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-06-13T03:06:47.000Z","2009-10-17T20:45:51.000Z","3009-10-17T23:59:00.000Z"
"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.",13,,"faws","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-22T17:59:58.000Z","2009-10-17T20:45:51.000Z","3009-10-17T23:59:00.000Z"
"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.",15,,"anonym","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-21T04:41:27.000Z","2009-10-17T20:45:51.000Z","3009-10-17T23:59:00.000Z"
"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.",75,,"TheScholar","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-17T20:45:51.000Z","2009-10-17T20:45:51.000Z","3009-10-17T23:59:00.000Z"
"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.",1,,"freyley","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-18T06:07:24.000Z","2009-10-17T20:45:51.000Z","3009-10-17T23:59:00.000Z"
"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)",1,,"BenjyForstadt","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-31T22:17:10.868Z","2018-10-23T21:03:00.000Z","2028-10-23T21:03:00.000Z"
"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)",2,,"jazzsolo","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-03T21:09:41.179Z","2018-10-23T21:03:00.000Z","2028-10-23T21:03:00.000Z"
"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)",1,,"Medea","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-09T13:27:44.000Z","2018-10-23T21:03:00.000Z","2028-10-23T21:03:00.000Z"
"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)",7,,"azt","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-04T16:00:54.000Z","2018-10-23T21:03:00.000Z","2028-10-23T21:03:00.000Z"
"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)",20,,"pzr5138","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-02T15:54:16.000Z","2018-10-23T21:03:00.000Z","2028-10-23T21:03:00.000Z"
"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)",3,,"splorridge","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-01T14:30:24.000Z","2018-10-23T21:03:00.000Z","2028-10-23T21:03:00.000Z"
"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)",2,,"Michael Dickens","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-10-28T02:34:50.000Z","2018-10-23T21:03:00.000Z","2028-10-23T21:03:00.000Z"
"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)",2,,"pranomostro","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-10-27T10:47:30.000Z","2018-10-23T21:03:00.000Z","2028-10-23T21:03:00.000Z"
"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)",0,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-12T00:53:20.548Z","2018-10-23T21:03:00.000Z","2028-10-23T21:03:00.000Z"
"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)",2,,"Baeboo","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T19:10:15.363Z","2018-10-23T21:03:00.000Z","2028-10-23T21:03:00.000Z"
"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)",1,,"Andrew MacFie","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-07T17:53:23.040Z","2018-10-23T21:03:00.000Z","2028-10-23T21:03:00.000Z"
"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)",1,,"Selentelechia","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-15T02:57:38.000Z","2018-10-23T21:03:00.000Z","2028-10-23T21:03:00.000Z"
"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)",2,,"aej","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-01T16:16:59.000Z","2018-10-23T21:03:00.000Z","2028-10-23T21:03:00.000Z"
"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)",1,,"enolan","Leo","substantially more than baseline, but still really low",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-10-31T02:03:05.000Z","2018-10-23T21:03:00.000Z","2028-10-23T21:03:00.000Z"
"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)",1,,"LogicAndReason","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-10-25T12:59:24.000Z","2018-10-23T21:03:00.000Z","2028-10-23T21:03:00.000Z"
"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)",20,,"Leo","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-10-23T21:03:00.000Z","2018-10-23T21:03:00.000Z","2028-10-23T21:03:00.000Z"
"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.",0,,"deleteyourbrain","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:21:07.406Z","2011-11-17T02:21:26.000Z","2026-11-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.",2,,"Baeboo","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-21T21:06:47.013Z","2011-11-17T02:21:26.000Z","2026-11-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.",1,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T21:14:38.473Z","2011-11-17T02:21:26.000Z","2026-11-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.",1,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-17T04:39:44.000Z","2011-11-17T02:21:26.000Z","2026-11-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.",2,,"PipFoweraker","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-06T20:42:45.000Z","2011-11-17T02:21:26.000Z","2026-11-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.",0,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-06T13:22:58.000Z","2011-11-17T02:21:26.000Z","2026-11-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.",1,,"Unknowns","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-13T10:46:14.000Z","2011-11-17T02:21:26.000Z","2026-11-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.",1,,"kilobug","Harbinger1","In only 15 years ? For a colony ? Not unless we have the Singularity by then, or similar event.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-18T17:12:35.000Z","2011-11-17T02:21:26.000Z","2026-11-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.",0,,"Isaac","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-18T03:21:59.000Z","2011-11-17T02:21:26.000Z","2026-11-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.",0,,"lavalamp","Harbinger1","too soon, too specific",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T17:00:06.000Z","2011-11-17T02:21:26.000Z","2026-11-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.",0,,"Anubhav","Harbinger1","Come to think of it, I was thinking of some kind of private conglomerate establishing the colony. But that doesn't count as an 'international establishment', does it? ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T04:47:25.000Z","2011-11-17T02:21:26.000Z","2026-11-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.",2,,"Anubhav","Harbinger1","Going with the wording ('in 2026').",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T04:36:21.000Z","2011-11-17T02:21:26.000Z","2026-11-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.",80,,"Harbinger1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T02:21:26.000Z","2011-11-17T02:21:26.000Z","2026-11-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.",0,,"pranomostro","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:16:37.177Z","2011-11-17T02:21:26.000Z","2026-11-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.",2,,"NathanMcKnight","Harbinger1","Far too short a timeline. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-07T21:32:34.000Z","2011-11-17T02:21:26.000Z","2026-11-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.",1,,"Medea","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-14T18:54:11.000Z","2011-11-17T02:21:26.000Z","2026-11-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.",0,,"Medea","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-08T20:07:31.000Z","2011-11-17T02:21:26.000Z","2026-11-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.",3,,"gwern","Harbinger1","2021 land on mars http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1892 2035 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1522 land by 2050 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1512",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T18:59:44.000Z","2011-11-17T02:21:26.000Z","2026-11-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.",1,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1","In that case... yummy conjunction fallacy rounds this one down a lot. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T04:39:33.000Z","2011-11-17T02:21:26.000Z","2026-11-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.",1,,"Pablo","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-02T03:08:43.000Z","2011-11-17T02:21:26.000Z","2026-11-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.",40,,"PseudonymousUser","nshepperd",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-15T11:11:09.000Z","2014-09-08T14:35:06.000Z","2100-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.",50,,"ChristianKl","nshepperd","And his nationality is most likely Chinese.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-12T14:04:35.000Z","2014-09-08T14:35:06.000Z","2100-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.",80,,"rationalnoodles","nshepperd",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-14T18:03:31.000Z","2014-09-08T14:35:06.000Z","2100-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.",85,,"Mike","nshepperd","Before Elon Musk, my prediction would be have been zero.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-15T11:32:46.000Z","2014-09-08T14:35:06.000Z","2100-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.",75,,"mad","nshepperd",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-11T00:06:48.000Z","2014-09-08T14:35:06.000Z","2100-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.",65,,"JoshuaZ","nshepperd","See closely related prediction http://predictionbook.com/predictions/51719 which predicts no humans on Mars by that time. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-06T13:25:30.000Z","2014-09-08T14:35:06.000Z","2100-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.",15,,"Chri","nshepperd",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-07T11:25:42.000Z","2014-09-08T14:35:06.000Z","2100-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.",60,,"pranomostro","nshepperd",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-25T16:06:46.000Z","2014-09-08T14:35:06.000Z","2100-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.",60,,"Baeboo","nshepperd",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T03:31:48.593Z","2014-09-08T14:35:06.000Z","2100-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.",30,,"nshepperd","nshepperd",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-08T14:35:06.000Z","2014-09-08T14:35:06.000Z","2100-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.",55,,"JoshuaZ","nshepperd",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-08T14:36:17.000Z","2014-09-08T14:35:06.000Z","2100-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.",45,,"nshepperd","nshepperd",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-08T14:36:48.000Z","2014-09-08T14:35:06.000Z","2100-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.",45,,"Ham Nox","nshepperd",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-12T02:23:33.000Z","2014-09-08T14:35:06.000Z","2100-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.",90,,"CrystalBall","nshepperd",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-13T05:55:58.000Z","2014-09-08T14:35:06.000Z","2100-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.",45,,"Ben Doherty","nshepperd",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-13T12:40:04.000Z","2014-09-08T14:35:06.000Z","2100-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.",60,,"Serge","nshepperd",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-15T13:50:35.000Z","2014-09-08T14:35:06.000Z","2100-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.",80,,"asd","nshepperd","You really think PredictionBook is around then?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-18T20:07:08.000Z","2014-09-08T14:35:06.000Z","2100-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.",60,,"RobertLumley","nshepperd",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-08T00:59:41.000Z","2014-09-08T14:35:06.000Z","2100-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.",10,,"sjy","ren",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T21:49:40.045Z","2020-11-01T19:09:08.671Z","2021-11-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.",1,,"peter_hurford","ren",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-03T17:22:31.813Z","2020-11-01T19:09:08.671Z","2021-11-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.",2,,"JoshuaZ","ren",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T19:38:35.295Z","2020-11-01T19:09:08.671Z","2021-11-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.",2,,"pvoberstein","ren",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-09T00:42:17.573Z","2020-11-01T19:09:08.671Z","2021-11-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.",3,,"miro","ren",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T06:18:03.107Z","2020-11-01T19:09:08.671Z","2021-11-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.",90,,"ren","ren",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-01T19:09:08.676Z","2020-11-01T19:09:08.671Z","2021-11-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.",5,,"sty.silver","ren",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T09:43:23.757Z","2020-11-01T19:09:08.671Z","2021-11-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.",7,,"jbeshir","ren",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T14:44:49.904Z","2020-11-01T19:09:08.671Z","2021-11-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.",4,,"Deepak","ren",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T18:50:30.962Z","2020-11-01T19:09:08.671Z","2021-11-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.",3,,"PlacidPlatypus","ren",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-03T16:04:08.887Z","2020-11-01T19:09:08.671Z","2021-11-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.",1,,"chemotaxis101","ren",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-07T15:37:46.761Z","2020-11-01T19:09:08.671Z","2021-11-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.",27,,"JohnGreer","ren",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T18:49:08.992Z","2020-11-01T19:09:08.671Z","2021-11-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.",25,,"two2thehead","ren","Waaaay too soon",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T12:31:11.031Z","2020-11-01T19:09:08.671Z","2021-11-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.",5,,"srconstantin","ren",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T15:06:27.411Z","2020-11-01T19:09:08.671Z","2021-11-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.",1,,"JoshuaZ","ren",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T19:07:51.033Z","2020-11-01T19:09:08.671Z","2021-11-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.",3,,"Baeboo","ren",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-03T04:18:31.979Z","2020-11-01T19:09:08.671Z","2021-11-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?",95,,"TurnTrout","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:31:44.797Z","2020-11-30T19:49:58.983Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?",62,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:15:48.834Z","2020-11-30T19:49:58.983Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?",90,,"adamShimi","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:59:13.664Z","2020-11-30T19:49:58.983Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?",30,,"AnthonyC","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:48:03.898Z","2020-11-30T19:49:58.983Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?",48,,"avturchin","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T08:38:21.211Z","2020-11-30T19:49:58.983Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?",99,,"CellBioGuy","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T07:49:04.448Z","2020-11-30T19:49:58.983Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?",90,,"mad","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T06:23:54.873Z","2020-11-30T19:49:58.983Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?",80,,"damiensnyder","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T03:25:09.200Z","2020-11-30T19:49:58.983Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?",90,,"Pialgo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:08:37.114Z","2020-11-30T19:49:58.983Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?",80,,"Michael H","Michael H","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T19:49:58.992Z","2020-11-30T19:49:58.983Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?",75,,"Yousif","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T22:25:58.832Z","2020-11-30T19:49:58.983Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?",44,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:32:35.391Z","2020-11-30T19:49:58.983Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?",47,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:25:38.848Z","2020-11-30T19:49:58.983Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?",73,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:22:36.955Z","2020-11-30T19:49:58.983Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?",69,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:22:09.168Z","2020-11-30T19:49:58.983Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?",90,,"Emiya","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:51:55.216Z","2020-11-30T19:49:58.983Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?",95,,"Perhaps","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T15:22:03.765Z","2020-11-30T19:49:58.983Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?",35,,"TurnTrout","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:31:53.725Z","2020-11-30T19:50:16.978Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?",36,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:15:59.137Z","2020-11-30T19:50:16.978Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?",15,,"adamShimi","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:59:25.527Z","2020-11-30T19:50:16.978Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?",1,,"AnthonyC","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:48:19.108Z","2020-11-30T19:50:16.978Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?",1,,"CellBioGuy","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T07:49:05.921Z","2020-11-30T19:50:16.978Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?",10,,"mad","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T06:24:05.175Z","2020-11-30T19:50:16.978Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?",30,,"damiensnyder","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T03:25:18.755Z","2020-11-30T19:50:16.978Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?",25,,"Pialgo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:08:48.927Z","2020-11-30T19:50:16.978Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?",19,,"sludgepuddle","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T00:25:50.166Z","2020-11-30T19:50:16.978Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?",5,,"Pialgo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:08:43.694Z","2020-11-30T19:50:16.978Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?",20,,"Michael H","Michael H","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T19:50:16.985Z","2020-11-30T19:50:16.978Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?",75,,"Yousif","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T22:26:18.823Z","2020-11-30T19:50:16.978Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?",1,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:32:42.630Z","2020-11-30T19:50:16.978Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?",48,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:25:59.035Z","2020-11-30T19:50:16.978Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?",80,,"Emiya","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:52:10.368Z","2020-11-30T19:50:16.978Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?",70,,"Perhaps","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T15:22:40.776Z","2020-11-30T19:50:16.978Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?",73,,"TurnTrout","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:32:14.386Z","2020-11-30T19:50:34.071Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?",71,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:16:18.991Z","2020-11-30T19:50:34.071Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?",25,,"adamShimi","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:59:34.401Z","2020-11-30T19:50:34.071Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?",25,,"AnthonyC","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:48:37.899Z","2020-11-30T19:50:34.071Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?",95,,"CellBioGuy","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T07:49:14.241Z","2020-11-30T19:50:34.071Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?",75,,"mad","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T06:24:18.106Z","2020-11-30T19:50:34.071Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?",80,,"damiensnyder","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T03:25:37.000Z","2020-11-30T19:50:34.071Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?",75,,"Pialgo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:08:56.528Z","2020-11-30T19:50:34.071Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?",54,,"sludgepuddle","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T00:25:52.621Z","2020-11-30T19:50:34.071Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?",50,,"Michael H","Michael H","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T19:50:34.082Z","2020-11-30T19:50:34.071Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?",50,,"Yousif","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T22:27:09.786Z","2020-11-30T19:50:34.071Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?",65,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:26:52.985Z","2020-11-30T19:50:34.071Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?",70,,"Emiya","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:52:23.295Z","2020-11-30T19:50:34.071Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?",70,,"Perhaps","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T15:22:57.537Z","2020-11-30T19:50:34.071Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?",83,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:34:44.039Z","2020-11-30T19:50:34.071Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?",85,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:34:43.058Z","2020-11-30T19:50:34.071Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?",84,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:34:41.960Z","2020-11-30T19:50:34.071Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will the title of the New York Times front page article on Sun 11/22 include any of the words: ‘coronavirus,’ ‘COVID-19,’ ‘COVID,’ or ‘SARS-CoV-2’?",15,"NO","Amanda N","Amanda N","Just seems like on any given day the chance is low. The last week has been election focused though, and the next week I expect to be more COVID-oriented","Resolution: The title of the NYT front page on Sunday was: ""Trump Using Last Days to Lock in Policies and Make Biden’s Task More Difficult”

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
To see the featured article, go to newyorktimes.com, click ‘Today’s Paper’ (https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper?redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F). The front page article is the one with the biggest image right under ‘The Front Page’","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:43:00.368Z","2020-11-13T16:59:53.206Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the title of the New York Times front page article on Sun 11/22 include any of the words: ‘coronavirus,’ ‘COVID-19,’ ‘COVID,’ or ‘SARS-CoV-2’?",25,"NO","Nicholas","Amanda N","prior","Resolution: The title of the NYT front page on Sunday was: ""Trump Using Last Days to Lock in Policies and Make Biden’s Task More Difficult”

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
To see the featured article, go to newyorktimes.com, click ‘Today’s Paper’ (https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper?redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F). The front page article is the one with the biggest image right under ‘The Front Page’","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:40:34.739Z","2020-11-13T16:59:53.206Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the title of the New York Times front page article on Sun 11/22 include any of the words: ‘coronavirus,’ ‘COVID-19,’ ‘COVID,’ or ‘SARS-CoV-2’?",10,"NO","Abigail T","Amanda N","Resolves 9 or 11% of the time in Oct/Nov depending on whether you count election week","Resolution: The title of the NYT front page on Sunday was: ""Trump Using Last Days to Lock in Policies and Make Biden’s Task More Difficult”

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
To see the featured article, go to newyorktimes.com, click ‘Today’s Paper’ (https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper?redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F). The front page article is the one with the biggest image right under ‘The Front Page’","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-16T02:21:38.701Z","2020-11-13T16:59:53.206Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the title of the New York Times front page article on Sun 11/22 include any of the words: ‘coronavirus,’ ‘COVID-19,’ ‘COVID,’ or ‘SARS-CoV-2’?",23,"NO","Ben L","Amanda N","""site:nytimes.com ""front page"" intitle:covid"", 7 articles out of 30 days search","Resolution: The title of the NYT front page on Sunday was: ""Trump Using Last Days to Lock in Policies and Make Biden’s Task More Difficult”

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
To see the featured article, go to newyorktimes.com, click ‘Today’s Paper’ (https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper?redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F). The front page article is the one with the biggest image right under ‘The Front Page’","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T19:12:17.202Z","2020-11-13T16:59:53.206Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the title of the New York Times front page article on Sun 11/22 include any of the words: ‘coronavirus,’ ‘COVID-19,’ ‘COVID,’ or ‘SARS-CoV-2’?",51,"NO","Ben L","Amanda N","","Resolution: The title of the NYT front page on Sunday was: ""Trump Using Last Days to Lock in Policies and Make Biden’s Task More Difficult”

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
To see the featured article, go to newyorktimes.com, click ‘Today’s Paper’ (https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper?redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F). The front page article is the one with the biggest image right under ‘The Front Page’","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:28:19.977Z","2020-11-13T16:59:53.206Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the title of the New York Times front page article on Sun 11/22 include any of the words: ‘coronavirus,’ ‘COVID-19,’ ‘COVID,’ or ‘SARS-CoV-2’?",15,"NO","Ethan Perez","Amanda N","","Resolution: The title of the NYT front page on Sunday was: ""Trump Using Last Days to Lock in Policies and Make Biden’s Task More Difficult”

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
To see the featured article, go to newyorktimes.com, click ‘Today’s Paper’ (https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper?redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F). The front page article is the one with the biggest image right under ‘The Front Page’","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:24:41.105Z","2020-11-13T16:59:53.206Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the title of the New York Times front page article on Sun 11/22 include any of the words: ‘coronavirus,’ ‘COVID-19,’ ‘COVID,’ or ‘SARS-CoV-2’?",25,"NO","Ethan Perez","Amanda N","","Resolution: The title of the NYT front page on Sunday was: ""Trump Using Last Days to Lock in Policies and Make Biden’s Task More Difficult”

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
To see the featured article, go to newyorktimes.com, click ‘Today’s Paper’ (https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper?redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F). The front page article is the one with the biggest image right under ‘The Front Page’","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:21:49.356Z","2020-11-13T16:59:53.206Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the title of the New York Times front page article on Sun 11/22 include any of the words: ‘coronavirus,’ ‘COVID-19,’ ‘COVID,’ or ‘SARS-CoV-2’?",50,"NO","William S","Amanda N","","Resolution: The title of the NYT front page on Sunday was: ""Trump Using Last Days to Lock in Policies and Make Biden’s Task More Difficult”

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
To see the featured article, go to newyorktimes.com, click ‘Today’s Paper’ (https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper?redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F). The front page article is the one with the biggest image right under ‘The Front Page’","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:20:08.330Z","2020-11-13T16:59:53.206Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the title of the New York Times front page article on Sun 11/22 include any of the words: ‘coronavirus,’ ‘COVID-19,’ ‘COVID,’ or ‘SARS-CoV-2’?",46,"NO","jimrandomh","Amanda N",,"Resolution: The title of the NYT front page on Sunday was: ""Trump Using Last Days to Lock in Policies and Make Biden’s Task More Difficult”

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
To see the featured article, go to newyorktimes.com, click ‘Today’s Paper’ (https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper?redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F). The front page article is the one with the biggest image right under ‘The Front Page’","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T02:12:08.631Z","2020-11-13T16:59:53.206Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the title of the New York Times front page article on Sun 11/22 include any of the words: ‘coronavirus,’ ‘COVID-19,’ ‘COVID,’ or ‘SARS-CoV-2’?",33,"NO","jimrandomh","Amanda N",,"Resolution: The title of the NYT front page on Sunday was: ""Trump Using Last Days to Lock in Policies and Make Biden’s Task More Difficult”

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
To see the featured article, go to newyorktimes.com, click ‘Today’s Paper’ (https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper?redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F). The front page article is the one with the biggest image right under ‘The Front Page’","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T02:11:57.798Z","2020-11-13T16:59:53.206Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the title of the New York Times front page article on Sun 11/22 include any of the words: ‘coronavirus,’ ‘COVID-19,’ ‘COVID,’ or ‘SARS-CoV-2’?",45,"NO","mattvdm","Amanda N","week of Nov 12th–18th, criterion is met on 3 of 7 days (43%). near miss on 14 nov (""the virus"") is difficult to interpret","Resolution: The title of the NYT front page on Sunday was: ""Trump Using Last Days to Lock in Policies and Make Biden’s Task More Difficult”

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
To see the featured article, go to newyorktimes.com, click ‘Today’s Paper’ (https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper?redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F). The front page article is the one with the biggest image right under ‘The Front Page’","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T10:24:44.254Z","2020-11-13T16:59:53.206Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the title of the New York Times front page article on Sun 11/22 include any of the words: ‘coronavirus,’ ‘COVID-19,’ ‘COVID,’ or ‘SARS-CoV-2’?",15,"NO","marcin.kowrygo","Amanda N","","Resolution: The title of the NYT front page on Sunday was: ""Trump Using Last Days to Lock in Policies and Make Biden’s Task More Difficult”

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
To see the featured article, go to newyorktimes.com, click ‘Today’s Paper’ (https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper?redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F). The front page article is the one with the biggest image right under ‘The Front Page’","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T17:56:02.421Z","2020-11-13T16:59:53.206Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the title of the New York Times front page article on Sun 11/22 include any of the words: ‘coronavirus,’ ‘COVID-19,’ ‘COVID,’ or ‘SARS-CoV-2’?",25,"NO","Hoorman_Cain","Amanda N","","Resolution: The title of the NYT front page on Sunday was: ""Trump Using Last Days to Lock in Policies and Make Biden’s Task More Difficult”

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
To see the featured article, go to newyorktimes.com, click ‘Today’s Paper’ (https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper?redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F). The front page article is the one with the biggest image right under ‘The Front Page’","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T03:15:49.917Z","2020-11-13T16:59:53.206Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the title of the New York Times front page article on Sun 11/22 include any of the words: ‘coronavirus,’ ‘COVID-19,’ ‘COVID,’ or ‘SARS-CoV-2’?",15,"NO","Will B","Amanda N","","Resolution: The title of the NYT front page on Sunday was: ""Trump Using Last Days to Lock in Policies and Make Biden’s Task More Difficult”

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
To see the featured article, go to newyorktimes.com, click ‘Today’s Paper’ (https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper?redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F). The front page article is the one with the biggest image right under ‘The Front Page’","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T00:45:17.944Z","2020-11-13T16:59:53.206Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the title of the New York Times front page article on Sun 11/22 include any of the words: ‘coronavirus,’ ‘COVID-19,’ ‘COVID,’ or ‘SARS-CoV-2’?",40,"NO","Hoorman_Cain","Amanda N","","Resolution: The title of the NYT front page on Sunday was: ""Trump Using Last Days to Lock in Policies and Make Biden’s Task More Difficult”

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
To see the featured article, go to newyorktimes.com, click ‘Today’s Paper’ (https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper?redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F). The front page article is the one with the biggest image right under ‘The Front Page’","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T03:16:53.847Z","2020-11-13T16:59:53.206Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the title of the New York Times front page article on Sun 11/22 include any of the words: ‘coronavirus,’ ‘COVID-19,’ ‘COVID,’ or ‘SARS-CoV-2’?",15,"NO","Dilhan P","Amanda N","base rate seems to have been around 10-15% in months where new cases were increasing/high (note where there is a covid-19 reference the title often contains ""virus"" only)","Resolution: The title of the NYT front page on Sunday was: ""Trump Using Last Days to Lock in Policies and Make Biden’s Task More Difficult”

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
To see the featured article, go to newyorktimes.com, click ‘Today’s Paper’ (https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper?redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F). The front page article is the one with the biggest image right under ‘The Front Page’","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-14T16:31:30.477Z","2020-11-13T16:59:53.206Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the title of the New York Times front page article on Sun 11/22 include any of the words: ‘coronavirus,’ ‘COVID-19,’ ‘COVID,’ or ‘SARS-CoV-2’?",0,"NO","Hoorman_Cain","Amanda N","","Resolution: The title of the NYT front page on Sunday was: ""Trump Using Last Days to Lock in Policies and Make Biden’s Task More Difficult”

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
To see the featured article, go to newyorktimes.com, click ‘Today’s Paper’ (https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper?redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F). The front page article is the one with the biggest image right under ‘The Front Page’","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T03:16:54.758Z","2020-11-13T16:59:53.206Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the title of the New York Times front page article on Sun 11/22 include any of the words: ‘coronavirus,’ ‘COVID-19,’ ‘COVID,’ or ‘SARS-CoV-2’?",15,"NO","marcin.kowrygo","Amanda N","","Resolution: The title of the NYT front page on Sunday was: ""Trump Using Last Days to Lock in Policies and Make Biden’s Task More Difficult”

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
To see the featured article, go to newyorktimes.com, click ‘Today’s Paper’ (https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper?redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F). The front page article is the one with the biggest image right under ‘The Front Page’","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T17:17:14.687Z","2020-11-13T16:59:53.206Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the title of the New York Times front page article on Sun 11/22 include any of the words: ‘coronavirus,’ ‘COVID-19,’ ‘COVID,’ or ‘SARS-CoV-2’?",22,"NO","Dilhan P","Amanda N","Updating slightly based on recent increase in frequency","Resolution: The title of the NYT front page on Sunday was: ""Trump Using Last Days to Lock in Policies and Make Biden’s Task More Difficult”

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
To see the featured article, go to newyorktimes.com, click ‘Today’s Paper’ (https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper?redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F). The front page article is the one with the biggest image right under ‘The Front Page’","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T22:48:56.706Z","2020-11-13T16:59:53.206Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the title of the New York Times front page article on Sun 11/22 include any of the words: ‘coronavirus,’ ‘COVID-19,’ ‘COVID,’ or ‘SARS-CoV-2’?",15,"NO","Abigail T","Amanda N","update (one on the sixteenth)","Resolution: The title of the NYT front page on Sunday was: ""Trump Using Last Days to Lock in Policies and Make Biden’s Task More Difficult”

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
To see the featured article, go to newyorktimes.com, click ‘Today’s Paper’ (https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper?redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F). The front page article is the one with the biggest image right under ‘The Front Page’","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-19T11:18:18.238Z","2020-11-13T16:59:53.206Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the title of the New York Times front page article on Sun 11/22 include any of the words: ‘coronavirus,’ ‘COVID-19,’ ‘COVID,’ or ‘SARS-CoV-2’?",33,"NO","Linh Chi N","Amanda N","","Resolution: The title of the NYT front page on Sunday was: ""Trump Using Last Days to Lock in Policies and Make Biden’s Task More Difficult”

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
To see the featured article, go to newyorktimes.com, click ‘Today’s Paper’ (https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper?redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F). The front page article is the one with the biggest image right under ‘The Front Page’","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-19T22:33:03.152Z","2020-11-13T16:59:53.206Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the title of the New York Times front page article on Sun 11/22 include any of the words: ‘coronavirus,’ ‘COVID-19,’ ‘COVID,’ or ‘SARS-CoV-2’?",25,"NO","openai-review","Amanda N","","Resolution: The title of the NYT front page on Sunday was: ""Trump Using Last Days to Lock in Policies and Make Biden’s Task More Difficult”

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
To see the featured article, go to newyorktimes.com, click ‘Today’s Paper’ (https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper?redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F). The front page article is the one with the biggest image right under ‘The Front Page’","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-19T23:08:51.003Z","2020-11-13T16:59:53.206Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the title of the New York Times front page article on Sun 11/22 include any of the words: ‘coronavirus,’ ‘COVID-19,’ ‘COVID,’ or ‘SARS-CoV-2’?",25,"NO","Andreas S","Amanda N","","Resolution: The title of the NYT front page on Sunday was: ""Trump Using Last Days to Lock in Policies and Make Biden’s Task More Difficult”

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
To see the featured article, go to newyorktimes.com, click ‘Today’s Paper’ (https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper?redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F). The front page article is the one with the biggest image right under ‘The Front Page’","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-19T23:11:17.527Z","2020-11-13T16:59:53.206Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the title of the New York Times front page article on Sun 11/22 include any of the words: ‘coronavirus,’ ‘COVID-19,’ ‘COVID,’ or ‘SARS-CoV-2’?",25,"NO","William S","Amanda N","","Resolution: The title of the NYT front page on Sunday was: ""Trump Using Last Days to Lock in Policies and Make Biden’s Task More Difficult”

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
To see the featured article, go to newyorktimes.com, click ‘Today’s Paper’ (https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper?redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F). The front page article is the one with the biggest image right under ‘The Front Page’","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:59:13.206Z","2020-11-13T16:59:53.206Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Extraterrestrial  life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ",58,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-08T22:08:14.000Z","2011-06-09T23:33:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Extraterrestrial  life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ",3,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-08T21:01:05.000Z","2011-06-09T23:33:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Extraterrestrial  life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ",80,,"faul_sname","JoshuaZ","I agree that a human present on that extraterrestrial body is unnecesary. We alreadybhave some sting evidence of microbial life on mars.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-01T08:34:49.000Z","2011-06-09T23:33:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Extraterrestrial  life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ",20,,"kallman","JoshuaZ","Confirming life is pretty dang hard! Though I'd love to be wrong, maybe detect methane or similar...? ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-06-16T06:04:17.000Z","2011-06-09T23:33:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Extraterrestrial  life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ",75,,"chemotaxis101","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T20:13:12.662Z","2011-06-09T23:33:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Extraterrestrial  life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ",50,,"najdorf","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-06T23:21:28.000Z","2011-06-09T23:33:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Extraterrestrial  life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ",70,,"simplicio","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-03T17:05:21.000Z","2011-06-09T23:33:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Extraterrestrial  life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ",50,,"Qiaochu","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-02T03:23:26.000Z","2011-06-09T23:33:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Extraterrestrial  life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ",85,,"Tuxedage","JoshuaZ","If it's merely ""life"", rather than intelligent life, it seems fairly probable.
",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-12-28T00:13:09.000Z","2011-06-09T23:33:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Extraterrestrial  life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ",70,,"scav","JoshuaZ","Yes if spectroscopic evidence counts as confirmation. No if we have to get there and take samples ;)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-06-20T13:39:07.000Z","2011-06-09T23:33:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Extraterrestrial  life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ",60,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-06-09T23:33:42.000Z","2011-06-09T23:33:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Extraterrestrial  life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ",57,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T23:07:28.054Z","2011-06-09T23:33:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Extraterrestrial  life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ",5,,"Deepak","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-16T17:46:17.637Z","2011-06-09T23:33:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Extraterrestrial  life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ",80,,"NathanMcKnight","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-05T19:56:21.000Z","2011-06-09T23:33:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Extraterrestrial  life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ",20,,"muflax","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-02T16:32:18.000Z","2011-06-09T23:33:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Extraterrestrial  life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ",65,,"bobpage","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-07T09:43:07.000Z","2011-06-09T23:33:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Extraterrestrial  life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ",90,,"Obsi","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-07T04:42:42.000Z","2011-06-09T23:33:42.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.",91,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T19:25:46.997Z","2021-01-09T06:39:30.972Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.",85,,"NunoSempere","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:37:56.421Z","2021-01-09T06:39:30.972Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.",98,,"D0TheMath","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T17:16:33.484Z","2021-01-09T06:39:30.972Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.",86,,"D0TheMath","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T17:16:29.448Z","2021-01-09T06:39:30.972Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.",70,,"Oskar Mathiasen","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T12:09:45.396Z","2021-01-09T06:39:30.972Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.",75,,"deluks917","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:46:31.566Z","2021-01-09T06:39:30.972Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.",75,,"ejacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T00:03:00.661Z","2021-01-09T06:39:30.972Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.",60,,"Mary Chernyshenko","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:47:14.967Z","2021-01-09T06:39:30.972Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.",66,,"Mary Chernyshenko","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:47:29.801Z","2021-01-09T06:39:30.972Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.",93,,"Zvi","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T21:59:50.668Z","2021-01-09T06:39:30.972Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.",93,,"libero","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T09:20:07.138Z","2021-01-09T06:39:30.972Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.",99,,"Geoffrey Wood","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:38:39.979Z","2021-01-09T06:39:30.972Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.",60,,"Mary Chernyshenko","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:47:30.212Z","2021-01-09T06:39:30.972Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.",95,,"ChristianKl","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T12:25:50.564Z","2021-01-09T06:39:30.972Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.",75,,"philh","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T19:24:52.594Z","2021-01-09T06:39:30.972Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.",53,,"Benjamin Rachbach","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:26:55.891Z","2021-01-09T06:39:30.972Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.",80,,"Eli Lifland","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T20:38:27.090Z","2021-01-09T06:39:30.972Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.",95,,"Dagon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T20:36:25.313Z","2021-01-09T06:39:30.972Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",12,,"JoshuaZ","daveisright",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-02T16:57:51.174Z","2020-07-02T16:30:56.559Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",10,,"HonoreDB","daveisright",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-02T18:37:53.654Z","2020-07-02T16:30:56.559Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",55,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","daveisright",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-03T06:39:02.226Z","2020-07-02T16:30:56.559Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",35,,"JohnGreer","daveisright",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-06T19:43:43.482Z","2020-07-02T16:30:56.559Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",14,,"Baeboo","daveisright",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-07T18:37:43.182Z","2020-07-02T16:30:56.559Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",8,,"azatris","daveisright",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-08T17:02:51.983Z","2020-07-02T16:30:56.559Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",5,,"Deepak","daveisright",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-09T15:26:48.562Z","2020-07-02T16:30:56.559Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",5,,"gwillen","daveisright",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-11T22:02:35.396Z","2020-07-02T16:30:56.559Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",60,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","daveisright",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-13T06:51:16.000Z","2020-07-02T16:30:56.559Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",11,,"JoshuaZ","daveisright",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-24T22:27:46.695Z","2020-07-02T16:30:56.559Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",0,,"jamesrom","daveisright","1 in 1000. rounding down.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-25T13:44:09.561Z","2020-07-02T16:30:56.559Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",0,,"rappatoni","daveisright","By suicide: 0.023% per prisoner per year in US. Say risk is increased by factor 10 => ~ 0.1%. This is an overestimate: isolation, constant surveillance. 
By third party: extremely risky, cover up near impossible => <0.1%. 
Round down => 0%",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-25T14:43:20.112Z","2020-07-02T16:30:56.559Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",1,,"Baeboo","daveisright",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-19T20:43:28.155Z","2020-07-02T16:30:56.559Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",40,,"daveisright","daveisright",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-02T16:30:56.565Z","2020-07-02T16:30:56.559Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",14,,"stepan","daveisright",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-08T17:26:16.682Z","2020-07-02T16:30:56.559Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",5,,"bobpage","daveisright",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-09T01:44:26.455Z","2020-07-02T16:30:56.559Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",18,,"PlacidPlatypus","daveisright",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-09T18:17:59.144Z","2020-07-02T16:30:56.559Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",10,,"Baeboo","daveisright",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-10T00:03:21.451Z","2020-07-02T16:30:56.559Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",15,,"Baeboo","daveisright",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-13T09:11:14.410Z","2020-07-02T16:30:56.559Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",5,,"ayegill","daveisright",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-16T14:16:48.032Z","2020-07-02T16:30:56.559Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",13,,"Baeboo","daveisright",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-16T20:05:45.935Z","2020-07-02T16:30:56.559Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",11,,"Baeboo","daveisright",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-25T04:59:52.343Z","2020-07-02T16:30:56.559Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",9,,"Baeboo","daveisright",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-25T18:35:28.261Z","2020-07-02T16:30:56.559Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",5,,"Baeboo","daveisright",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-11T02:10:57.322Z","2020-07-02T16:30:56.559Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",1,,"JoshuaZ","daveisright","If it was going to happen, would likely have already happened. If hasn't happened by November 1st, then will round down to 0%.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-11T13:50:35.453Z","2020-07-02T16:30:56.559Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ",92,,"D0TheMath","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T17:13:17.132Z","2021-01-09T06:01:08.816Z","2035-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ",60,,"ChristianKl","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T12:23:25.688Z","2021-01-09T06:01:08.816Z","2035-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ",95,,"pepe_prime","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T11:31:11.627Z","2021-01-09T06:01:08.816Z","2035-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ",52,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T06:03:34.056Z","2021-01-09T06:01:08.816Z","2035-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ",40,,"Oskar Mathiasen","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T12:06:00.671Z","2021-01-09T06:01:08.816Z","2035-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ",70,,"ejacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T00:00:55.667Z","2021-01-09T06:01:08.816Z","2035-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ",65,,"libero","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T09:17:12.481Z","2021-01-09T06:01:08.816Z","2035-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ",50,,"Geoffrey Wood","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:34:18.514Z","2021-01-09T06:01:08.816Z","2035-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ",59,,"Zvi","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T21:57:48.865Z","2021-01-09T06:01:08.816Z","2035-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ",60,,"philh","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T19:19:42.046Z","2021-01-09T06:01:08.816Z","2035-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ",90,,"deluks917","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:50:26.356Z","2021-01-09T06:01:08.816Z","2035-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ",80,,"jefftk","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T20:54:03.904Z","2021-01-09T06:01:08.816Z","2035-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ",79,,"Benjamin Rachbach","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:23:58.955Z","2021-01-09T06:01:08.816Z","2035-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ",35,,"Dagon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T20:33:51.770Z","2021-01-09T06:01:08.816Z","2035-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ",40,,"NunoSempere","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:36:00.692Z","2021-01-09T06:01:08.816Z","2035-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).",50,,"Emiya","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:59:38.083Z","2020-11-30T19:57:12.783Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).",80,,"adamShimi","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:02:31.444Z","2020-11-30T19:57:12.783Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).",1,,"Pialgo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:11:33.310Z","2020-11-30T19:57:12.783Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).",5,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:32:35.812Z","2020-11-30T19:57:12.783Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).",10,,"AnthonyC","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:51:42.099Z","2020-11-30T19:57:12.783Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).",52,,"avturchin","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T08:47:53.951Z","2020-11-30T19:57:12.783Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).",12,,"CellBioGuy","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T07:50:35.440Z","2020-11-30T19:57:12.783Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).",50,,"Michael H","Michael H","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T19:57:12.790Z","2020-11-30T19:57:12.783Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).",1,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:38:21.520Z","2020-11-30T19:57:12.783Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).",1,,"Yousif","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T22:32:59.243Z","2020-11-30T19:57:12.783Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).",10,,"Yousif","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T22:33:06.542Z","2020-11-30T19:57:12.783Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).",66,,"Benjy Forstadt","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T23:04:52.324Z","2020-11-30T19:57:12.783Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).",71,,"Benjy Forstadt","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T23:04:55.101Z","2020-11-30T19:57:12.783Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).",15,,"TurnTrout","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:34:51.606Z","2020-11-30T19:57:12.783Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).",10,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:14:53.987Z","2020-11-30T19:57:12.783Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).",5,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:15:07.596Z","2020-11-30T19:57:12.783Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).",52,,"Perhaps","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T15:24:14.919Z","2020-11-30T19:57:12.783Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).",23,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:20:49.512Z","2020-11-30T19:57:12.783Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).",22,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:20:48.049Z","2020-11-30T19:57:12.783Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).",24,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:20:46.205Z","2020-11-30T19:57:12.783Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020",30,,"penten","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-11T16:30:01.000Z","2016-02-07T21:21:45.000Z","2021-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020",60,,"bitbatbot","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-30T06:44:36.000Z","2016-02-07T21:21:45.000Z","2021-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","gwern","Success rate of CRISPR is low.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-08T00:22:13.000Z","2016-02-07T21:21:45.000Z","2021-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020",100,,"deleteyourbrain","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T02:55:11.036Z","2016-02-07T21:21:45.000Z","2021-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020",60,,"krazemon","gwern","I'm a bit concerned that this will happen but we won't know (China doing it in secret for example).",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-01-25T00:49:54.000Z","2016-02-07T21:21:45.000Z","2021-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020",40,,"BaesTheorem","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-19T14:43:18.000Z","2016-02-07T21:21:45.000Z","2021-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020",35,,"leo_grint","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-19T17:04:38.000Z","2016-02-07T21:21:45.000Z","2021-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020",75,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-20T21:47:22.000Z","2016-02-07T21:21:45.000Z","2021-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020",38,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-11T05:54:53.000Z","2016-02-07T21:21:45.000Z","2021-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020",58,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-09T02:55:59.000Z","2016-02-07T21:21:45.000Z","2021-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020",65,,"danielfilan","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-08T13:55:20.000Z","2016-02-07T21:21:45.000Z","2021-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020",55,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-08T04:07:06.000Z","2016-02-07T21:21:45.000Z","2021-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020",66,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-07T23:47:07.000Z","2016-02-07T21:21:45.000Z","2021-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020",70,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-07T21:29:04.000Z","2016-02-07T21:21:45.000Z","2021-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020",30,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-07T21:21:45.000Z","2016-02-07T21:21:45.000Z","2021-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020",10,,"bomeor","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-17T18:54:48.021Z","2016-02-07T21:21:45.000Z","2021-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020",12,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-17T19:21:43.364Z","2016-02-07T21:21:45.000Z","2021-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020",10,,"NickN","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-19T22:44:19.802Z","2016-02-07T21:21:45.000Z","2021-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020",12,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-02T20:52:01.000Z","2016-02-07T21:21:45.000Z","2021-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",50,,"Mark Xu","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""much better"", I mean something like: at least 10% as good as humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-29T21:13:19.518Z","2020-11-22T22:54:56.773Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",67,,"Edward Kmett","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""much better"", I mean something like: at least 10% as good as humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-07T00:48:29.242Z","2020-11-22T22:54:56.773Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",85,,"Edward Kmett","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""much better"", I mean something like: at least 10% as good as humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-07T00:53:14.354Z","2020-11-22T22:54:56.773Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",53,,"TomBrown","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""much better"", I mean something like: at least 10% as good as humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-08T01:23:56.878Z","2020-11-22T22:54:56.773Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",84,,"TomBrown","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""much better"", I mean something like: at least 10% as good as humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-08T01:24:06.403Z","2020-11-22T22:54:56.773Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",20,,"algon33","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""much better"", I mean something like: at least 10% as good as humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T10:58:33.440Z","2020-11-22T22:54:56.773Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",25,,"algon33","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""much better"", I mean something like: at least 10% as good as humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T10:58:04.838Z","2020-11-22T22:54:56.773Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",20,,"algon33","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""much better"", I mean something like: at least 10% as good as humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T10:57:18.903Z","2020-11-22T22:54:56.773Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",21,,"algon33","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""much better"", I mean something like: at least 10% as good as humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T10:57:15.762Z","2020-11-22T22:54:56.773Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",26,,"algon33","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""much better"", I mean something like: at least 10% as good as humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T10:57:14.822Z","2020-11-22T22:54:56.773Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",30,,"algon33","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""much better"", I mean something like: at least 10% as good as humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T10:57:13.857Z","2020-11-22T22:54:56.773Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",23,,"algon33","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""much better"", I mean something like: at least 10% as good as humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T10:57:13.239Z","2020-11-22T22:54:56.773Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",20,,"algon33","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""much better"", I mean something like: at least 10% as good as humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T10:57:03.291Z","2020-11-22T22:54:56.773Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",80,,"Alex Ray","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""much better"", I mean something like: at least 10% as good as humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T03:57:27.160Z","2020-11-22T22:54:56.773Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",60,,"adamShimi","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""much better"", I mean something like: at least 10% as good as humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T22:36:52.101Z","2020-11-22T22:54:56.773Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",85,,"habryka","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""much better"", I mean something like: at least 10% as good as humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T18:33:35.791Z","2020-11-22T22:54:56.773Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",87,,"Nicholas Kluge","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""much better"", I mean something like: at least 10% as good as humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T18:01:20.929Z","2020-11-22T22:54:56.773Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",90,,"Measure","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""much better"", I mean something like: at least 10% as good as humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T17:57:46.466Z","2020-11-22T22:54:56.773Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",88,,"Measure","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""much better"", I mean something like: at least 10% as good as humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T17:57:45.497Z","2020-11-22T22:54:56.773Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",95,,"meanderingmoose","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""much better"", I mean something like: at least 10% as good as humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T15:51:20.372Z","2020-11-22T22:54:56.773Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",46,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""much better"", I mean something like: at least 10% as good as humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T08:59:39.578Z","2020-11-22T22:54:56.773Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",54,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""much better"", I mean something like: at least 10% as good as humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T09:00:09.604Z","2020-11-22T22:54:56.773Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",50,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""much better"", I mean something like: at least 10% as good as humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T09:00:12.915Z","2020-11-22T22:54:56.773Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",47,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""much better"", I mean something like: at least 10% as good as humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T09:00:14.520Z","2020-11-22T22:54:56.773Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",69,,"Owain_Evans","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""much better"", I mean something like: at least 10% as good as humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T12:35:40.572Z","2020-11-22T22:54:56.773Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",85,,"Rafael Harth","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""much better"", I mean something like: at least 10% as good as humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T10:52:58.943Z","2020-11-22T22:54:56.773Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",60,,"Richard N","Richard N","","I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""much better"", I mean something like: at least 10% as good as humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T22:54:56.783Z","2020-11-22T22:54:56.773Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",50,,"Richard N","Richard N","","I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""much better"", I mean something like: at least 10% as good as humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T16:09:59.850Z","2020-11-22T22:54:56.773Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",80,,"peter.c.mccluskey","Richard N","","I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""much better"", I mean something like: at least 10% as good as humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T17:13:02.584Z","2020-11-22T22:54:56.773Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",70,,"Mark Xu","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: evolution could have implemented it with 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""powerful"", I mean something like: at least 10% as significant as cultural abilities were for humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-29T21:13:38.938Z","2020-11-22T23:01:29.248Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",75,,"Edward Kmett","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: evolution could have implemented it with 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""powerful"", I mean something like: at least 10% as significant as cultural abilities were for humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-07T00:49:11.723Z","2020-11-22T23:01:29.248Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",82,,"TomBrown","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: evolution could have implemented it with 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""powerful"", I mean something like: at least 10% as significant as cultural abilities were for humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-08T01:24:42.704Z","2020-11-22T23:01:29.248Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",75,,"TomBrown","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: evolution could have implemented it with 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""powerful"", I mean something like: at least 10% as significant as cultural abilities were for humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-08T01:24:46.544Z","2020-11-22T23:01:29.248Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",95,,"TomBrown","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: evolution could have implemented it with 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""powerful"", I mean something like: at least 10% as significant as cultural abilities were for humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-08T01:24:47.205Z","2020-11-22T23:01:29.248Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",82,,"TomBrown","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: evolution could have implemented it with 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""powerful"", I mean something like: at least 10% as significant as cultural abilities were for humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-08T01:24:49.785Z","2020-11-22T23:01:29.248Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",49,,"Raphaël Lévy","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: evolution could have implemented it with 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""powerful"", I mean something like: at least 10% as significant as cultural abilities were for humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T09:44:52.341Z","2020-11-22T23:01:29.248Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",33,,"algon33","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: evolution could have implemented it with 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""powerful"", I mean something like: at least 10% as significant as cultural abilities were for humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T10:51:54.620Z","2020-11-22T23:01:29.248Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",50,,"Alex Ray","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: evolution could have implemented it with 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""powerful"", I mean something like: at least 10% as significant as cultural abilities were for humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T03:57:40.465Z","2020-11-22T23:01:29.248Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",70,,"adamShimi","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: evolution could have implemented it with 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""powerful"", I mean something like: at least 10% as significant as cultural abilities were for humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T22:37:14.063Z","2020-11-22T23:01:29.248Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",64,,"habryka","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: evolution could have implemented it with 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""powerful"", I mean something like: at least 10% as significant as cultural abilities were for humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T18:33:46.844Z","2020-11-22T23:01:29.248Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",49,,"Nicholas Kluge","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: evolution could have implemented it with 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""powerful"", I mean something like: at least 10% as significant as cultural abilities were for humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T18:01:38.071Z","2020-11-22T23:01:29.248Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",80,,"Measure","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: evolution could have implemented it with 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""powerful"", I mean something like: at least 10% as significant as cultural abilities were for humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T17:57:53.829Z","2020-11-22T23:01:29.248Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",78,,"Measure","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: evolution could have implemented it with 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""powerful"", I mean something like: at least 10% as significant as cultural abilities were for humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T17:57:52.907Z","2020-11-22T23:01:29.248Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",81,,"Measure","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: evolution could have implemented it with 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""powerful"", I mean something like: at least 10% as significant as cultural abilities were for humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T17:57:51.869Z","2020-11-22T23:01:29.248Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",70,,"meanderingmoose","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: evolution could have implemented it with 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""powerful"", I mean something like: at least 10% as significant as cultural abilities were for humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T15:51:53.511Z","2020-11-22T23:01:29.248Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",47,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: evolution could have implemented it with 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""powerful"", I mean something like: at least 10% as significant as cultural abilities were for humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T09:00:39.859Z","2020-11-22T23:01:29.248Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",66,,"Owain_Evans","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: evolution could have implemented it with 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""powerful"", I mean something like: at least 10% as significant as cultural abilities were for humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T12:35:46.086Z","2020-11-22T23:01:29.248Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",30,,"Richard N","Richard N","","I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: evolution could have implemented it with 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""powerful"", I mean something like: at least 10% as significant as cultural abilities were for humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T23:01:29.254Z","2020-11-22T23:01:29.248Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",32,,"arxhy","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: evolution could have implemented it with 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""powerful"", I mean something like: at least 10% as significant as cultural abilities were for humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T20:39:03.274Z","2020-11-22T23:01:29.248Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",40,,"arxhy","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: evolution could have implemented it with 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""powerful"", I mean something like: at least 10% as significant as cultural abilities were for humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T20:39:03.888Z","2020-11-22T23:01:29.248Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",44,,"arxhy","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: evolution could have implemented it with 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""powerful"", I mean something like: at least 10% as significant as cultural abilities were for humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T20:39:08.968Z","2020-11-22T23:01:29.248Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",42,,"arxhy","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: evolution could have implemented it with 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""powerful"", I mean something like: at least 10% as significant as cultural abilities were for humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T20:39:09.671Z","2020-11-22T23:01:29.248Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",34,,"arxhy","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: evolution could have implemented it with 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""powerful"", I mean something like: at least 10% as significant as cultural abilities were for humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T20:39:12.993Z","2020-11-22T23:01:29.248Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",46,,"arxhy","Richard N",,"I'm trying to use ""simple"" in the same sense as Christiano does here, when he says ""we should not be surprised if there are simple changes to chimps that would make them much better at... accumulating culture"". https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/ A wild guess at how to operationalise this means: evolution could have implemented it with 100,000 years of moderate selective pressure.

By ""powerful"", I mean something like: at least 10% as significant as cultural abilities were for humans.

I agree that this is impossibly vague, but at least it forces me to indicate an order-of-magnitude guess.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T20:39:21.169Z","2020-11-22T23:01:29.248Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026",0,,"NickN","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-22T10:50:06.525Z","2017-01-11T08:48:21.000Z","2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026",2,,"arrowinthedark","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-22T02:16:00.522Z","2017-01-11T08:48:21.000Z","2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026",8,,"bobpage","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-11T08:48:21.000Z","2017-01-11T08:48:21.000Z","2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026",1,,"EloiseRosen","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-12T05:46:37.000Z","2017-01-11T08:48:21.000Z","2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026",1,,"daccount10","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-14T03:30:29.000Z","2017-01-11T08:48:21.000Z","2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026",3,,"Baeboo","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-14T06:45:39.000Z","2017-01-11T08:48:21.000Z","2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026",12,,"ccokeefe","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-02T22:30:25.000Z","2017-01-11T08:48:21.000Z","2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026",5,,"gallerdude","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-05T02:14:44.000Z","2017-01-11T08:48:21.000Z","2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026",2,,"Baeboo","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T04:46:09.778Z","2017-01-11T08:48:21.000Z","2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026",5,,"penten","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-11T13:13:29.000Z","2017-01-11T08:48:21.000Z","2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026",9,,"themusicgod1","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-12T03:09:31.000Z","2017-01-11T08:48:21.000Z","2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026",1,,"spqr0a1","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-15T19:15:41.000Z","2017-01-11T08:48:21.000Z","2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026",1,,"arpanagarawal","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-15T19:25:44.000Z","2017-01-11T08:48:21.000Z","2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026",10,,"enolan","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-02T05:12:44.000Z","2017-01-11T08:48:21.000Z","2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026",1,,"Osuniev","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-02T21:04:57.000Z","2017-01-11T08:48:21.000Z","2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026",2,,"Jayson Virissimo","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-04T00:51:36.000Z","2017-01-11T08:48:21.000Z","2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026",0,,"bobpage","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T11:19:02.287Z","2017-01-11T08:48:21.000Z","2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)",99,,"RoryS","Snorkelfarsan",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-01T14:41:05.000Z","2015-07-31T13:55:29.000Z","2025-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)",95,,"Wintermute","Snorkelfarsan",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-05T07:10:39.000Z","2015-07-31T13:55:29.000Z","2025-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)",98,,"silacoid","Snorkelfarsan","Proxy wars can occur, but not something classified as WW3",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-05T12:23:57.000Z","2015-07-31T13:55:29.000Z","2025-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Snorkelfarsan","No chance, the only way to win global thermonuclear war is not to play.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-08T12:11:47.000Z","2015-07-31T13:55:29.000Z","2025-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)",98,,"Afforess","Snorkelfarsan",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-19T18:53:34.000Z","2015-07-31T13:55:29.000Z","2025-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)",70,,"Snorkelfarsan","Snorkelfarsan",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-31T13:55:29.000Z","2015-07-31T13:55:29.000Z","2025-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)",95,,"JoshuaZ","Snorkelfarsan",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-31T17:59:53.000Z","2015-07-31T13:55:29.000Z","2025-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)",90,,"David","Snorkelfarsan",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-01T10:13:51.000Z","2015-07-31T13:55:29.000Z","2025-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)",96,,"supinf","Snorkelfarsan",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-01T12:25:32.000Z","2015-07-31T13:55:29.000Z","2025-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)",98,,"espore","Snorkelfarsan",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-02T21:01:27.000Z","2015-07-31T13:55:29.000Z","2025-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)",90,,"btrettel","Snorkelfarsan",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-03T15:55:08.000Z","2015-07-31T13:55:29.000Z","2025-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)",95,,"btrettel","Snorkelfarsan",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-03T15:55:51.000Z","2015-07-31T13:55:29.000Z","2025-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)",100,,"HonoreDB","Snorkelfarsan",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-04T18:48:53.000Z","2015-07-31T13:55:29.000Z","2025-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)",85,,"Medea","Snorkelfarsan",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-08T20:02:18.000Z","2015-07-31T13:55:29.000Z","2025-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)",85,,"themusicgod1","Snorkelfarsan",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-10T00:49:22.000Z","2015-07-31T13:55:29.000Z","2025-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)",99,,"two2thehead","Snorkelfarsan","Almost certainly",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-10T02:47:33.000Z","2015-07-31T13:55:29.000Z","2025-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"C still widely in use in the 2020s",96,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-16T19:46:05.000Z","2017-10-16T19:46:05.000Z","2029-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"C still widely in use in the 2020s",95,,"aseyfarth","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-26T13:54:55.000Z","2017-10-16T19:46:05.000Z","2029-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"C still widely in use in the 2020s",96,,"Michael Dickens","themusicgod1","How do you define ""widely in use""? I would say if it's in the top 20 languages according to some popular index such as https://www.tiobe.com/tiobe-index/",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-28T02:43:38.000Z","2017-10-16T19:46:05.000Z","2029-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"C still widely in use in the 2020s",70,,"regex","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-28T15:26:10.000Z","2017-10-16T19:46:05.000Z","2029-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"C still widely in use in the 2020s",98,,"iCrown","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-28T22:23:07.000Z","2017-10-16T19:46:05.000Z","2029-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"C still widely in use in the 2020s",95,,"ekr","themusicgod1","considering how much inertia has been historically, in the use of software technologies, C looks almost certain to maintain its position. A decade is nothing.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-01T23:02:42.000Z","2017-10-16T19:46:05.000Z","2029-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"C still widely in use in the 2020s",95,,"Flenser","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-08T05:30:39.000Z","2017-10-16T19:46:05.000Z","2029-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"C still widely in use in the 2020s",98,,"Tenobrus","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-09T03:09:47.000Z","2017-10-16T19:46:05.000Z","2029-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"C still widely in use in the 2020s",90,,"Medea","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T16:31:03.000Z","2017-10-16T19:46:05.000Z","2029-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"C still widely in use in the 2020s",95,,"Jayson Virissimo","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T18:23:06.000Z","2017-10-16T19:46:05.000Z","2029-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"C still widely in use in the 2020s",97,,"davatk","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-24T05:24:48.000Z","2017-10-16T19:46:05.000Z","2029-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"C still widely in use in the 2020s",97,,"pranomostro","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-03T21:51:19.713Z","2017-10-16T19:46:05.000Z","2029-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"C still widely in use in the 2020s",90,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-08T07:08:25.535Z","2017-10-16T19:46:05.000Z","2029-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"C still widely in use in the 2020s",95,,"amadeu","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-07T20:31:14.858Z","2017-10-16T19:46:05.000Z","2029-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"C still widely in use in the 2020s",96,,"Baeboo","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-09T01:49:24.603Z","2017-10-16T19:46:05.000Z","2029-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.",99,,"najdorf","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-04T12:45:00.018Z","2012-02-04T02:57:57.000Z","2030-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.",35,,"JoshuaZ","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-06T05:20:42.000Z","2012-02-04T02:57:57.000Z","2030-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.",50,,"Anubhav","Anubhav","I couldn't remember why I'd placed the high estimate, so I looked over the stuff I'd read 4 days ago. Found this: http://bit.ly/wunBEP Looks like I outsourced reasoning to outrage and cached thoughts. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-08T08:24:19.000Z","2012-02-04T02:57:57.000Z","2030-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.",40,,"Jayson Virissimo","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-08T12:16:29.000Z","2012-02-04T02:57:57.000Z","2030-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.",30,,"ahartell","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-09T23:44:54.000Z","2012-02-04T02:57:57.000Z","2030-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.",49,,"najdorf","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-06T22:45:43.000Z","2012-02-04T02:57:57.000Z","2030-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.",30,,"btrettel","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-26T18:39:17.000Z","2012-02-04T02:57:57.000Z","2030-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.",70,,"Anubhav","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-04T02:57:57.000Z","2012-02-04T02:57:57.000Z","2030-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.",35,,"gwern","Anubhav","china looks a heck of a lot more fragile than the us - the us isn't surpressing thousands of demonstrations and 'incidents' a year",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-04T15:17:21.000Z","2012-02-04T02:57:57.000Z","2030-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.",20,,"chemotaxis101","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-04T15:45:12.000Z","2012-02-04T02:57:57.000Z","2030-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.",40,,"RobertLumley","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-04T15:50:24.000Z","2012-02-04T02:57:57.000Z","2030-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.",25,,"antsan","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-21T17:29:32.000Z","2012-02-04T02:57:57.000Z","2030-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.",75,,"Tuxedage","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-07T01:32:39.000Z","2012-02-04T02:57:57.000Z","2030-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.",10,,"seifip","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-14T09:55:24.000Z","2012-02-04T02:57:57.000Z","2030-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.",42,,"themusicgod1","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T02:06:12.000Z","2012-02-04T02:57:57.000Z","2030-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.",20,,"pranomostro","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T00:21:32.574Z","2012-02-04T02:57:57.000Z","2030-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.",35,,"Baeboo","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T05:25:31.178Z","2012-02-04T02:57:57.000Z","2030-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.",99,,"pranomostro","Citizen553",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T23:29:09.000Z","2009-11-18T00:02:42.000Z","2159-11-18T00:02:42.000Z"
"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.",100,,"jesselevine","Citizen553","Way to screw up the average, Joshuaz lolol",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T17:39:41.000Z","2009-11-18T00:02:42.000Z","2159-11-18T00:02:42.000Z"
"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.",93,,"themusicgod1","Citizen553",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T15:22:30.000Z","2009-11-18T00:02:42.000Z","2159-11-18T00:02:42.000Z"
"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.",100,,"Anubhav","Citizen553",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T08:45:53.000Z","2009-11-18T00:02:42.000Z","2159-11-18T00:02:42.000Z"
"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.",0,,"JoshuaZ","Citizen553",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-24T18:11:24.000Z","2009-11-18T00:02:42.000Z","2159-11-18T00:02:42.000Z"
"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.",99,,"thephilosiraptor","Citizen553","Or in our grandchildren's grandchildrens lifetimes, or their grandchildren's grandchildren.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-11-18T07:51:06.000Z","2009-11-18T00:02:42.000Z","2159-11-18T00:02:42.000Z"
"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.",100,,"deleteyourbrain","Citizen553",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T01:43:04.708Z","2009-11-18T00:02:42.000Z","2159-11-18T00:02:42.000Z"
"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.",100,,"Baeboo","Citizen553",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-26T03:48:47.000Z","2009-11-18T00:02:42.000Z","2159-11-18T00:02:42.000Z"
"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.",97,,"ioannes","Citizen553",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-19T16:49:59.000Z","2009-11-18T00:02:42.000Z","2159-11-18T00:02:42.000Z"
"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.",100,,"Tuxedage","Citizen553",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-07T01:31:50.000Z","2009-11-18T00:02:42.000Z","2159-11-18T00:02:42.000Z"
"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.",97,,"najdorf","Citizen553",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-06T22:49:08.000Z","2009-11-18T00:02:42.000Z","2159-11-18T00:02:42.000Z"
"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.",100,,"JoshuaZ","Citizen553","Oops. Got confused by the ""not"" ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-24T18:12:45.000Z","2009-11-18T00:02:42.000Z","2159-11-18T00:02:42.000Z"
"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.",100,,"gwern","Citizen553",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T06:36:15.000Z","2009-11-18T00:02:42.000Z","2159-11-18T00:02:42.000Z"
"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.",99,,"anonym","Citizen553",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-12-03T05:01:33.000Z","2009-11-18T00:02:42.000Z","2159-11-18T00:02:42.000Z"
"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.",100,,"Jack","Citizen553",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-11-19T04:00:29.000Z","2009-11-18T00:02:42.000Z","2159-11-18T00:02:42.000Z"
"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.",99,,"Citizen553","Citizen553",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-11-18T00:03:07.000Z","2009-11-18T00:02:42.000Z","2159-11-18T00:02:42.000Z"
"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""",1,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-27T15:46:16.000Z","2015-07-26T04:26:53.000Z","2031-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""",1,,"davatk","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-26T16:47:41.000Z","2015-07-26T04:26:53.000Z","2031-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""",1,,"btrettel","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-27T14:27:00.000Z","2015-07-26T04:26:53.000Z","2031-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""",1,,"RoryS","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-03T21:47:01.000Z","2015-07-26T04:26:53.000Z","2031-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""",0,,"David","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-26T09:39:52.000Z","2015-07-26T04:26:53.000Z","2031-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""",15,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-26T04:26:53.000Z","2015-07-26T04:26:53.000Z","2031-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""",0,,"NickN","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T01:37:07.983Z","2015-07-26T04:26:53.000Z","2031-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""",24,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-21T04:09:51.000Z","2015-07-26T04:26:53.000Z","2031-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""",0,,"kiimberlie","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-16T19:48:32.000Z","2015-07-26T04:26:53.000Z","2031-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""",1,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T10:48:28.000Z","2015-07-26T04:26:53.000Z","2031-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""",42,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T02:04:55.000Z","2015-07-26T04:26:53.000Z","2031-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""",1,,"Medea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-09T12:02:23.000Z","2015-07-26T04:26:53.000Z","2031-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""",5,,"HonoreDB","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-07T16:15:43.000Z","2015-07-26T04:26:53.000Z","2031-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""",1,,"silacoid","InquilineKea","We won't be far enough with scanning tech. Would need to scan both neurons and weightings/feedback mechanisms - and also simulate it...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-05T12:53:29.000Z","2015-07-26T04:26:53.000Z","2031-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""",0,,"espore","InquilineKea","Virtually impossible",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-02T21:06:00.000Z","2015-07-26T04:26:53.000Z","2031-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?",7,,"Yousif","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T22:28:05.127Z","2020-11-30T19:52:21.391Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?",35,,"adamShimi","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:59:43.475Z","2020-11-30T19:52:21.391Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?",89,,"avturchin","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T08:38:42.744Z","2020-11-30T19:52:21.391Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?",65,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:27:43.607Z","2020-11-30T19:52:21.391Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?",20,,"Michael H","Michael H","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T19:52:21.398Z","2020-11-30T19:52:21.391Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?",30,,"sludgepuddle","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T00:25:57.762Z","2020-11-30T19:52:21.391Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?",51,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:35:01.004Z","2020-11-30T19:52:21.391Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?",50,,"Perhaps","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T15:23:09.203Z","2020-11-30T19:52:21.391Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?",21,,"sludgepuddle","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T00:25:56.826Z","2020-11-30T19:52:21.391Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?",24,,"sludgepuddle","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T00:25:55.381Z","2020-11-30T19:52:21.391Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?",80,,"Emiya","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:52:34.294Z","2020-11-30T19:52:21.391Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?",50,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:16:36.227Z","2020-11-30T19:52:21.391Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?",75,,"TurnTrout","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:32:25.765Z","2020-11-30T19:52:21.391Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?",41,,"CellBioGuy","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T07:49:19.549Z","2020-11-30T19:52:21.391Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?",65,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:09:26.715Z","2020-11-30T19:52:21.391Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?",70,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:09:23.070Z","2020-11-30T19:52:21.391Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?",20,,"AnthonyC","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:48:48.560Z","2020-11-30T19:52:21.391Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?",60,,"Pialgo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:09:03.841Z","2020-11-30T19:52:21.391Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.",10,,"simplicio","Cy Fleming",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-20T22:28:15.000Z","2013-01-16T14:28:41.000Z","2028-01-16T14:28:41.000Z"
"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.",2,,"Malgidus","Cy Fleming",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-27T22:46:17.000Z","2013-01-16T14:28:41.000Z","2028-01-16T14:28:41.000Z"
"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.",22,,"JoshuaZ","Cy Fleming",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-16T14:46:59.000Z","2013-01-16T14:28:41.000Z","2028-01-16T14:28:41.000Z"
"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.",12,,"Tuxedage","Cy Fleming","So my probability given this information has risen to about 12%",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-17T01:27:46.000Z","2013-01-16T14:28:41.000Z","2028-01-16T14:28:41.000Z"
"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.",15,,"lavalamp","Cy Fleming",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-25T06:06:04.000Z","2013-01-16T14:28:41.000Z","2028-01-16T14:28:41.000Z"
"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.",0,,"najdorf","Cy Fleming","That'd be awesome but no chance.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-06T20:25:56.000Z","2013-01-16T14:28:41.000Z","2028-01-16T14:28:41.000Z"
"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.",25,,"RandomThinker","Cy Fleming",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-28T02:54:43.000Z","2013-01-16T14:28:41.000Z","2028-01-16T14:28:41.000Z"
"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.",4,,"themusicgod1","Cy Fleming",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T14:52:21.000Z","2013-01-16T14:28:41.000Z","2028-01-16T14:28:41.000Z"
"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.",50,,"Cy Fleming","Cy Fleming",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-16T14:28:41.000Z","2013-01-16T14:28:41.000Z","2028-01-16T14:28:41.000Z"
"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.",5,,"Tuxedage","Cy Fleming","This is incredibly unlikely, where are you getting your priors from?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-17T01:22:38.000Z","2013-01-16T14:28:41.000Z","2028-01-16T14:28:41.000Z"
"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.",5,,"dhoe","Cy Fleming",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-17T10:43:05.000Z","2013-01-16T14:28:41.000Z","2028-01-16T14:28:41.000Z"
"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.",10,,"Michael Dickens","Cy Fleming",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-21T23:18:13.000Z","2013-01-16T14:28:41.000Z","2028-01-16T14:28:41.000Z"
"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.",8,,"ChristianKl","Cy Fleming",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-24T17:22:17.000Z","2013-01-16T14:28:41.000Z","2028-01-16T14:28:41.000Z"
"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.",5,,"Jayson Virissimo","Cy Fleming","It is almost as if the USG is actively trying to increase the cost of hiring people. Not going to happen.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-25T08:29:44.000Z","2013-01-16T14:28:41.000Z","2028-01-16T14:28:41.000Z"
"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.",3,,"Nic_Smith","Cy Fleming",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-27T01:45:58.000Z","2013-01-16T14:28:41.000Z","2028-01-16T14:28:41.000Z"
"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.",96,,"EloiseRosen","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-26T01:50:51.000Z","2016-11-17T14:44:48.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.",95,,"Jayson Virissimo","splorridge","Damnit, meant 95, not 9.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-25T02:49:18.000Z","2016-11-17T14:44:48.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.",95,,"bendini","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-20T20:28:14.000Z","2016-11-17T14:44:48.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.",95,,"two2thehead","splorridge","Five percent hedge.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-18T16:03:25.000Z","2016-11-17T14:44:48.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.",94,,"leo_grint","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-18T12:35:44.000Z","2016-11-17T14:44:48.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.",81,,"themusicgod1","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-17T18:28:40.000Z","2016-11-17T14:44:48.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.",96,,"splorridge","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-17T14:44:48.000Z","2016-11-17T14:44:48.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.",91,,"JoshuaZ","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-27T01:37:20.000Z","2016-11-17T14:44:48.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.",88,,"JoshuaZ","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-01T14:41:45.000Z","2016-11-17T14:44:48.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.",88,,"Temeraire","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-30T01:33:25.000Z","2016-11-17T14:44:48.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.",5,,"Jayson Virissimo","splorridge","Legal in all states or just some?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-25T02:48:16.000Z","2016-11-17T14:44:48.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.",95,,"pkfalu92","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-19T18:12:32.000Z","2016-11-17T14:44:48.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.",95,,"trishume","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-18T20:51:15.000Z","2016-11-17T14:44:48.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.",92,,"JoshuaZ","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T18:36:26.741Z","2016-11-17T14:44:48.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.",92,,"RainbowSpacedancer","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-04T00:39:32.000Z","2016-11-17T14:44:48.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.",95,,"penten","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-01T16:37:17.000Z","2016-11-17T14:44:48.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.",89,,"Dapple","splorridge","I'm assuming if at least one state becomes legally capable of doing so (Obergefell v Hodges verdict overridden), and then does so, this prediction will close as wrong.

 I'm highly confident that the SCOTUS is the ONLY obstacle albeit a strong one.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-28T18:26:46.000Z","2016-11-17T14:44:48.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.
",1,,"themusicgod1","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-31T16:36:34.000Z","2016-01-29T23:37:29.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.
",2,,"Jenson","Raahul_Kumar","Pfft, no. They'll become irrelevant way before banning it could get anywhere near global support. Maybe if a dog died every time an incandescent bulb were screwed in. (Will you still be using this site in 2022, by the way?)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-02T23:32:02.000Z","2016-01-29T23:37:29.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.
",2,,"daniel74f","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-06T01:27:57.000Z","2016-01-29T23:37:29.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.
",48,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-30T01:40:11.000Z","2016-01-29T23:37:29.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.
",0,,"Afforess","Raahul_Kumar","Incandescent light bulbs still serve many purposes, and their inefficiency is often a feature because they can provide heat. The ""bans"" are very narrow and only ban them for ""general lighting"" not all purposes.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-03T20:52:18.000Z","2016-01-29T23:37:29.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.
",1,,"gwern","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-07T18:17:48.000Z","2016-01-29T23:37:29.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.
",1,,"Temeraire","Raahul_Kumar","Including North Korea, Somalia and so on?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-12T04:04:43.000Z","2016-01-29T23:37:29.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.
",2,,"enolan","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-03-23T23:01:48.000Z","2016-01-29T23:37:29.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.
",0,,"deleteyourbrain","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T02:55:35.287Z","2016-01-29T23:37:29.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.
",0,,"Baeboo","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T03:16:15.754Z","2016-01-29T23:37:29.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.
",12,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T19:11:50.079Z","2016-01-29T23:37:29.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.
",95,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-29T23:37:29.000Z","2016-01-29T23:37:29.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.
",3,,"alecbrooks","Raahul_Kumar","Bans will be widespread, but probably not global.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-13T21:47:54.000Z","2016-01-29T23:37:29.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.
",10,,"bobpage","Raahul_Kumar","This just doesn't seem important enough for a truly global Montreal Protocol-like cooperation when the economics of LED bulbs will just work out",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-30T09:36:11.000Z","2016-01-29T23:37:29.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.
",2,,"leo_gri","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-21T18:29:04.000Z","2016-01-29T23:37:29.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.
",0,,"themusicgod1","Raahul_Kumar","TPP makes this impossible.  That would be a barrier to trade.  Incandescent bulbs are included as something that have to be easier, not more difficult to trade in the pacific rim region.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-31T16:34:51.000Z","2016-01-29T23:37:29.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?",25,,"Yousif","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T22:23:07.383Z","2020-11-30T19:39:51.769Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?",50,,"Yousif","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T22:22:43.363Z","2020-11-30T19:39:51.769Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?",1,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:41:22.088Z","2020-11-30T19:39:51.769Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?",1,,"Michael H","Michael H","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T19:39:51.775Z","2020-11-30T19:39:51.769Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?",25,,"damiensnyder","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T03:24:00.376Z","2020-11-30T19:39:51.769Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?",2,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:30:51.754Z","2020-11-30T19:39:51.769Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?",1,,"VermillionStuka","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T23:13:59.438Z","2020-11-30T19:39:51.769Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?",5,,"Pialgo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:07:37.656Z","2020-11-30T19:39:51.769Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?",45,,"TurnTrout","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:30:42.653Z","2020-11-30T19:39:51.769Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?",10,,"Perhaps","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T15:20:28.676Z","2020-11-30T19:39:51.769Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?",40,,"TurnTrout","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:30:45.234Z","2020-11-30T19:39:51.769Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?",20,,"Emiya","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:51:10.346Z","2020-11-30T19:39:51.769Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?",5,,"AnthonyC","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:47:03.465Z","2020-11-30T19:39:51.769Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?",50,,"CellBioGuy","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T07:48:43.304Z","2020-11-30T19:39:51.769Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?",5,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:16:38.364Z","2020-11-30T19:39:51.769Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?",0.1,,"Flavio B","Michael H","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T17:19:46.660Z","2020-11-30T19:39:51.769Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?",3,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:33:04.715Z","2020-11-30T19:39:51.769Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?",25,,"adamShimi","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:58:09.350Z","2020-11-30T19:39:51.769Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?",25,,"adamShimi","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:02:11.144Z","2020-11-30T19:56:41.019Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?",6,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:20:10.606Z","2020-11-30T19:56:41.019Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?",1,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:37:58.529Z","2020-11-30T19:56:41.019Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?",1,,"TurnTrout","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:34:20.703Z","2020-11-30T19:56:41.019Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?",10,,"Michael H","Michael H","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T19:56:41.025Z","2020-11-30T19:56:41.019Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?",2,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:19:58.178Z","2020-11-30T19:56:41.019Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?",4,,"lsusr","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T21:27:58.419Z","2020-11-30T19:56:41.019Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?",1,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:14:01.793Z","2020-11-30T19:56:41.019Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?",1,,"Emiya","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:59:15.389Z","2020-11-30T19:56:41.019Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?",6,,"CellBioGuy","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T07:50:22.806Z","2020-11-30T19:56:41.019Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?",1,,"VermillionStuka","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T10:14:06.222Z","2020-11-30T19:56:41.019Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?",50,,"Yousif","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T22:32:09.666Z","2020-11-30T19:56:41.019Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?",1,,"AnthonyC","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:51:10.739Z","2020-11-30T19:56:41.019Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?",1,,"Pialgo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:11:11.464Z","2020-11-30T19:56:41.019Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)",15,,"ChristianKl","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T12:22:41.272Z","2021-01-09T05:54:43.991Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)",5,,"D0TheMath","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T17:13:09.237Z","2021-01-09T05:54:43.991Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)",25,,"ejacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T00:00:49.799Z","2021-01-09T05:54:43.991Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)",14,,"D0TheMath","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T17:13:05.620Z","2021-01-09T05:54:43.991Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)",26,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T19:17:42.248Z","2021-01-09T05:54:43.991Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)",15,,"Benjamin Rachbach","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:23:35.396Z","2021-01-09T05:54:43.991Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)",10,,"jefftk","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T20:53:55.729Z","2021-01-09T05:54:43.991Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)",2,,"deluks917","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:50:22.949Z","2021-01-09T05:54:43.991Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)",40,,"Dagon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T20:33:42.176Z","2021-01-09T05:54:43.991Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)",5,,"Zvi","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T21:57:32.817Z","2021-01-09T05:54:43.991Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)",20,,"philh","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T19:17:51.791Z","2021-01-09T05:54:43.991Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)",5,,"Geoffrey Wood","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:33:59.231Z","2021-01-09T05:54:43.991Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)",1,,"NunoSempere","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:35:50.260Z","2021-01-09T05:54:43.991Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)",33,,"libero","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T09:17:09.581Z","2021-01-09T05:54:43.991Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)",55,,"pepe_prime","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T11:30:59.746Z","2021-01-09T05:54:43.991Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.",5,,"btrettel","quanticle",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-15T00:20:18.000Z","2015-08-14T07:26:45.000Z","2025-08-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.",5,,"sdr","quanticle",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-14T20:51:31.000Z","2015-08-14T07:26:45.000Z","2025-08-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.",10,,"btrettel","quanticle",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-14T17:52:18.000Z","2015-08-14T07:26:45.000Z","2025-08-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.",3,,"silacoid","quanticle","Probably too many third-party libraries with licenses that prevents distribution of the source code, trade secret concerns and no financial incentive for releasing the full source.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-16T14:06:11.000Z","2015-08-14T07:26:45.000Z","2025-08-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.",0,,"themusicgod1","quanticle",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-11T02:21:24.000Z","2015-08-14T07:26:45.000Z","2025-08-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.",20,,"Jayson Virissimo","quanticle",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-25T20:09:25.000Z","2015-08-14T07:26:45.000Z","2025-08-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.",5,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","quanticle",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-20T18:49:35.000Z","2015-08-14T07:26:45.000Z","2025-08-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.",1,,"Afforess","quanticle",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-17T20:07:57.000Z","2015-08-14T07:26:45.000Z","2025-08-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.",7,,"timujin","quanticle",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-16T07:44:08.000Z","2015-08-14T07:26:45.000Z","2025-08-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.",5,,"clemux","quanticle",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-15T13:38:38.000Z","2015-08-14T07:26:45.000Z","2025-08-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.",25,,"Josh Holland","quanticle",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-14T11:01:38.000Z","2015-08-14T07:26:45.000Z","2025-08-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.",25,,"JoshuaZ","quanticle",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-14T11:42:09.000Z","2015-08-14T07:26:45.000Z","2025-08-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.",30,,"quanticle","quanticle",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-14T07:26:45.000Z","2015-08-14T07:26:45.000Z","2025-08-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.",60,,"mpdelbuono","quanticle",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-14T07:30:12.000Z","2015-08-14T07:26:45.000Z","2025-08-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.",9,,"supinf","quanticle",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-14T11:08:36.000Z","2015-08-14T07:26:45.000Z","2025-08-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ",25,,"Jayson Virissimo","NathanMcKnight","Getting an article published doesn't make the results correct.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-19T07:30:05.000Z","2012-09-18T16:07:55.000Z","2022-09-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ",12,,"beo_shaffer","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-20T05:06:50.000Z","2012-09-18T16:07:55.000Z","2022-09-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ",1,,"RobertLumley","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-22T03:56:34.000Z","2012-09-18T16:07:55.000Z","2022-09-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ",1,,"RobertLumley","NathanMcKnight","Assuming a paper published and later retracted doesn't count here. I'd probably be at 5% if it did.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-22T03:57:15.000Z","2012-09-18T16:07:55.000Z","2022-09-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ",10,,"learnmethis","NathanMcKnight","However, if published I also predict a high (>90%) chance the paper will either be retracted or prove inconclusive.  I would increase my estimate of the paper and decrease my estimate of the paper being retracted if it were information instead.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-26T00:13:00.000Z","2012-09-18T16:07:55.000Z","2022-09-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ",15,,"kilobug","NathanMcKnight","But with 95% chance it appears to be wrong.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-02T12:33:46.000Z","2012-09-18T16:07:55.000Z","2022-09-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ",20,,"RandomThinker","NathanMcKnight","I'm with Einstein",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-18T16:15:03.000Z","2012-09-18T16:07:55.000Z","2022-09-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ",0,,"Jach","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-19T08:11:07.000Z","2012-09-18T16:07:55.000Z","2022-09-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ",0,,"scav","NathanMcKnight","0% (rounded down) Maybe it could be a misprint (omitted ""not"" in abstract) or a joke intended for 1st April but published on the wrong day. It won't actually be achieved.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-19T15:23:15.000Z","2012-09-18T16:07:55.000Z","2022-09-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ",1,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-19T19:08:21.000Z","2012-09-18T16:07:55.000Z","2022-09-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ",0,,"sharanga","NathanMcKnight","I don't see the theory of relativity getting becoming obsolete within next ten years.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-25T14:49:39.000Z","2012-09-18T16:07:55.000Z","2022-09-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ",2,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-30T06:47:25.000Z","2012-09-18T16:07:55.000Z","2022-09-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ",50,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-18T16:07:55.000Z","2012-09-18T16:07:55.000Z","2022-09-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ",3,,"jakewalker","NathanMcKnight","This would flip physics on its head big time.  Like, BIG time.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-19T06:13:58.000Z","2012-09-18T16:07:55.000Z","2022-09-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ",2,,"Emanuel Rylke","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-19T06:28:08.000Z","2012-09-18T16:07:55.000Z","2022-09-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.",12,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-21T14:28:45.000Z","2012-09-21T01:52:58.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.",10,,"RandomThinker","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-21T16:09:05.000Z","2012-09-21T01:52:58.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.",10,,"gwern","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-21T22:38:17.000Z","2012-09-21T01:52:58.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.",8,,"jakewalker","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-22T00:57:24.000Z","2012-09-21T01:52:58.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.",10,,"tylercurtis","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-11T03:37:45.000Z","2012-09-21T01:52:58.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.",2,,"rebellionkid","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-17T00:32:21.000Z","2012-09-21T01:52:58.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.",7,,"Pablo","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-29T22:54:26.000Z","2012-09-21T01:52:58.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.",60,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-21T01:52:58.000Z","2012-09-21T01:52:58.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.",10,,"Jayson Virissimo","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-21T06:26:17.000Z","2012-09-21T01:52:58.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.",7,,"RobertLumley","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-23T04:09:30.000Z","2012-09-21T01:52:58.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.",65,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight","Bumping it up a bit in light of current events. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-10T21:42:30.000Z","2012-09-21T01:52:58.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.",5,,"adbge","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-12T02:55:45.000Z","2012-09-21T01:52:58.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.",30,,"from3004","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-16T20:06:32.000Z","2012-09-21T01:52:58.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.",9,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:07:15.000Z","2012-09-21T01:52:58.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.",10,,"krazemon","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-11T15:23:39.183Z","2012-09-21T01:52:58.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller",5,,"ggreer","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-30T07:07:19.000Z","2010-08-21T09:31:12.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller",2,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-02T14:56:58.000Z","2010-08-21T09:31:12.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller",5,,"Grognor","gwern","I mean, no, not 10%",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-06T20:13:22.000Z","2010-08-21T09:31:12.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller",0,,"saturn","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-11T07:10:15.000Z","2010-08-21T09:31:12.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller",5,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-16T22:08:29.000Z","2010-08-21T09:31:12.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller",1,,"adbge","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-17T01:53:38.000Z","2010-08-21T09:31:12.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller",2,,"aseyfarth","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-26T14:00:04.000Z","2010-08-21T09:31:12.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller",1,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-10T20:45:40.214Z","2010-08-21T09:31:12.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller",1,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T01:32:59.486Z","2010-08-21T09:31:12.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller",2,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-10T21:29:48.634Z","2010-08-21T09:31:12.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller",3,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-21T09:31:12.000Z","2010-08-21T09:31:12.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller",95,,"ggreer","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-30T07:07:12.000Z","2010-08-21T09:31:12.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller",10,,"Grognor","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-06T20:12:44.000Z","2010-08-21T09:31:12.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller",1,,"Qiaochu","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-14T22:29:26.000Z","2010-08-21T09:31:12.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller",0,,"bobpage","gwern","too many hidden conjunctions",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-16T05:27:55.000Z","2010-08-21T09:31:12.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller",1,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-16T19:08:20.000Z","2010-08-21T09:31:12.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T01:13:12.000Z","2010-08-21T09:31:12.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller",5,,"aseyfarth","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-30T20:04:06.000Z","2010-08-21T09:31:12.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller",1,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-10T21:29:55.860Z","2010-08-21T09:31:12.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller",1,,"Larks","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-29T21:52:31.000Z","2010-08-21T09:31:12.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.",85,,"Pablo","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-29T22:47:03.000Z","2012-09-29T06:33:08.000Z","2022-09-29T06:33:08.000Z"
"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.",85,,"lukeprog","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-29T06:33:08.000Z","2012-09-29T06:33:08.000Z","2022-09-29T06:33:08.000Z"
"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.",70,,"Jayson Virissimo","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-29T10:35:46.000Z","2012-09-29T06:33:08.000Z","2022-09-29T06:33:08.000Z"
"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.",90,,"chemotaxis101","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-13T17:56:41.000Z","2012-09-29T06:33:08.000Z","2022-09-29T06:33:08.000Z"
"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.",90,,"Ken","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-12T16:34:58.000Z","2012-09-29T06:33:08.000Z","2022-09-29T06:33:08.000Z"
"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.",90,,"alecbrooks","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-21T22:58:40.000Z","2012-09-29T06:33:08.000Z","2022-09-29T06:33:08.000Z"
"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.",90,,"Tuxedage","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-05T17:25:26.000Z","2012-09-29T06:33:08.000Z","2022-09-29T06:33:08.000Z"
"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.",65,,"iconreforged","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-14T00:31:43.000Z","2012-09-29T06:33:08.000Z","2022-09-29T06:33:08.000Z"
"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.",87,,"Flipnash","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-17T21:47:10.000Z","2012-09-29T06:33:08.000Z","2022-09-29T06:33:08.000Z"
"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.",54,,"themusicgod1","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-14T19:14:12.000Z","2012-09-29T06:33:08.000Z","2022-09-29T06:33:08.000Z"
"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.",90,,"gwern","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T18:44:08.000Z","2012-09-29T06:33:08.000Z","2022-09-29T06:33:08.000Z"
"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.",80,,"​","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-01T13:06:53.000Z","2012-09-29T06:33:08.000Z","2022-09-29T06:33:08.000Z"
"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.",67,,"themusicgod1","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:22:43.000Z","2012-09-29T06:33:08.000Z","2022-09-29T06:33:08.000Z"
"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.",100,,"Baeboo","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-10T20:40:29.000Z","2012-09-29T06:33:08.000Z","2022-09-29T06:33:08.000Z"
"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.",90,,"pranomostro","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-10T16:05:34.000Z","2012-09-29T06:33:08.000Z","2022-09-29T06:33:08.000Z"
"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.",0,,"Deepak","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-12T16:05:14.645Z","2011-11-15T11:09:48.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.",0,,"JoshuaZ","Jayson Virissimo","Too short a timespan at this point. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-11T20:10:55.623Z","2011-11-15T11:09:48.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.",2,,"PlacidPlatypus","Jayson Virissimo","Very short timeline at this point. Plus I think more states is more likely than less.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-10T14:57:38.425Z","2011-11-15T11:09:48.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.",5,,"RobertLumley","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-15T13:45:16.000Z","2011-11-15T11:09:48.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.",1,,"JTPeterson","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-10T13:42:05.473Z","2011-11-15T11:09:48.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.",25,,"najdorf","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-10T04:30:41.823Z","2011-11-15T11:09:48.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.",30,,"Jayson Virissimo","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-15T11:09:48.000Z","2011-11-15T11:09:48.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.",15,,"Jayson Virissimo","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-15T14:15:27.000Z","2011-11-15T11:09:48.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.",2,,"gwern","Jayson Virissimo","implying secession; cf. 2020 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1714",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-15T22:08:16.000Z","2011-11-15T11:09:48.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.",1,,"Anubhav","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-16T04:16:39.000Z","2011-11-15T11:09:48.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.",15,,"kilobug","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-18T17:17:45.000Z","2011-11-15T11:09:48.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.",2,,"faws","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-13T18:52:49.000Z","2011-11-15T11:09:48.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.",10,,"najdorf","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-11T07:14:46.000Z","2011-11-15T11:09:48.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.",1,,"btrettel","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-26T18:37:37.000Z","2011-11-15T11:09:48.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.",42,,"themusicgod1","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T02:08:02.000Z","2011-11-15T11:09:48.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.",1,,"JoshuaZ","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T10:46:08.000Z","2011-11-15T11:09:48.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.",15,,"pranomostro","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:33:37.057Z","2011-11-15T11:09:48.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020",2,,"Baeboo","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-17T14:50:33.038Z","2020-06-09T03:17:38.738Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020",2,,"two2thehead","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-15T02:40:48.017Z","2020-06-09T03:17:38.738Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020",3,,"Baeboo","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-14T20:25:17.144Z","2020-06-09T03:17:38.738Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020",4,,"EloiseRosen","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-14T18:49:56.867Z","2020-06-09T03:17:38.738Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020",1,,"chemotaxis101","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T20:23:46.866Z","2020-06-09T03:17:38.738Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020",1,,"NickN","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-17T12:05:29.749Z","2020-06-09T03:17:38.738Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020",1,,"Cato","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-15T03:03:10.036Z","2020-06-09T03:17:38.738Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020",2,,"JoshuaZ","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-15T02:27:51.520Z","2020-06-09T03:17:38.738Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020",2,,"Deepak","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-14T16:58:44.295Z","2020-06-09T03:17:38.738Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020",21,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-13T06:41:02.213Z","2020-06-09T03:17:38.738Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020",3,,"Medea","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-09T11:17:46.171Z","2020-06-09T03:17:38.738Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020",0,,"azatris","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-23T11:46:33.845Z","2020-06-09T03:17:38.738Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020",0,,"Michal_Dubrawski","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-21T20:51:54.656Z","2020-06-09T03:17:38.738Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020",0,,"MultiplyByZer0","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T05:03:34.814Z","2020-06-09T03:17:38.738Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020",6,,"JoshuaZ","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-09T15:06:40.952Z","2020-06-09T03:17:38.738Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020",53,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-09T03:17:38.742Z","2020-06-09T03:17:38.738Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020",0,,"Bruno Parga","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T13:14:19.968Z","2020-06-09T03:17:38.738Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2022,  autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.",60,,"krazemon","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-31T00:19:04.671Z","2012-08-04T19:07:15.000Z","2022-08-04T19:07:15.000Z"
"By 2022,  autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-04T19:07:15.000Z","2012-08-04T19:07:15.000Z","2022-08-04T19:07:15.000Z"
"By 2022,  autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.",60,,"Emanuel Rylke","gwern","I assume excluding collateral damage, otherwise i would go much higher.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-05T12:41:59.000Z","2012-08-04T19:07:15.000Z","2022-08-04T19:07:15.000Z"
"By 2022,  autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.",51,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-05T14:08:12.000Z","2012-08-04T19:07:15.000Z","2022-08-04T19:07:15.000Z"
"By 2022,  autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.",50,,"Porejide","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-05T22:23:44.000Z","2012-08-04T19:07:15.000Z","2022-08-04T19:07:15.000Z"
"By 2022,  autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.",9,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-31T01:15:48.066Z","2012-08-04T19:07:15.000Z","2022-08-04T19:07:15.000Z"
"By 2022,  autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.",55,,"BrunoCoelho","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-08T09:45:04.000Z","2012-08-04T19:07:15.000Z","2022-08-04T19:07:15.000Z"
"By 2022,  autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.",60,,"torekp","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-12T22:42:36.000Z","2012-08-04T19:07:15.000Z","2022-08-04T19:07:15.000Z"
"By 2022,  autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.",35,,"RandomThinker","gwern","Even lower if you don't include outsourced groups like Blackwater.  Govt bureacracy relies on people.  It's not like private enterprise.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-13T17:56:35.000Z","2012-08-04T19:07:15.000Z","2022-08-04T19:07:15.000Z"
"By 2022,  autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.",50,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-17T23:06:26.000Z","2012-08-04T19:07:15.000Z","2022-08-04T19:07:15.000Z"
"By 2022,  autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.",70,,"kilobug","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-23T16:10:53.000Z","2012-08-04T19:07:15.000Z","2022-08-04T19:07:15.000Z"
"By 2022,  autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T06:08:14.000Z","2012-08-04T19:07:15.000Z","2022-08-04T19:07:15.000Z"
"By 2022,  autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.",66,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-10T20:54:56.438Z","2012-08-04T19:07:15.000Z","2022-08-04T19:07:15.000Z"
"By 2022,  autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.",63,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T00:25:54.965Z","2012-08-04T19:07:15.000Z","2022-08-04T19:07:15.000Z"
"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",30,,"Jayson Virissimo","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-15T11:10:53.000Z","2011-11-15T11:10:53.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",15,,"RobertLumley","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-15T13:45:02.000Z","2011-11-15T11:10:53.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",15,,"Jayson Virissimo","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-15T14:14:57.000Z","2011-11-15T11:10:53.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",15,,"gwern","Jayson Virissimo","texas supposedly has the legal ability to, at any time, fission into 4 or 5; puerto rico keeps vacillating on whether to be a state or not; and washington dc is sometimes mentioned",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-15T22:09:19.000Z","2011-11-15T11:10:53.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",9,,"Anubhav","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-16T04:16:30.000Z","2011-11-15T11:10:53.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",5,,"kilobug","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-18T17:17:41.000Z","2011-11-15T11:10:53.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",8,,"faws","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-13T18:52:15.000Z","2011-11-15T11:10:53.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",40,,"RandomThinker","Jayson Virissimo","puerto rico just voted to become 51st state, still has to be ratified by Congress.  http://balanceofeconomics.com/2012/11/07/the-most-important-election-result/",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-08T06:26:34.000Z","2011-11-15T11:10:53.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",80,,"NathanMcKnight","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-09T13:02:05.000Z","2011-11-15T11:10:53.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",72,,"RobbBB","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-24T06:33:40.000Z","2011-11-15T11:10:53.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",45,,"Jayson Virissimo","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-12-19T08:48:29.000Z","2011-11-15T11:10:53.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",20,,"Tuxedage","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-13T04:47:51.000Z","2011-11-15T11:10:53.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",60,,"Isaac","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-09T16:53:36.000Z","2011-11-15T11:10:53.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",40,,"Isaac","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-09T16:53:41.000Z","2011-11-15T11:10:53.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",35,,"themusicgod1","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T15:36:17.000Z","2011-11-15T11:10:53.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",34,,"themusicgod1","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-16T20:14:32.000Z","2011-11-15T11:10:53.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",13,,"Baeboo","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T02:42:38.300Z","2011-11-15T11:10:53.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",14,,"Baeboo","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T02:42:56.513Z","2011-11-15T11:10:53.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",25,,"pranomostro","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:33:32.469Z","2011-11-15T11:10:53.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ",20,,"Baeboo","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T02:37:06.883Z","2012-10-21T02:14:46.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ",20,,"pranomostro","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T22:49:32.000Z","2012-10-21T02:14:46.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ",62,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:53:02.000Z","2012-10-21T02:14:46.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ",5,,"seifip","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-14T09:42:22.000Z","2012-10-21T02:14:46.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ",20,,"Ken","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-12T16:51:15.000Z","2012-10-21T02:14:46.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ",25,,"Jayson Virissimo","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-28T23:05:09.000Z","2012-10-21T02:14:46.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ",0,,"museveni","NathanMcKnight","Economic incentives won't be enough to replace centuries of colonial history (which is the basis of African countries' education systems, which chooses the second language learnt).   ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-28T05:13:05.000Z","2012-10-21T02:14:46.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ",7,,"faws","NathanMcKnight","For hundreds of millions of Africans English is one of their national languages. No one is going to adopt Chinese as national language, and even if Chinese were to replace English as lingua franca it's not going to happen quickly enough.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-22T02:27:43.000Z","2012-10-21T02:14:46.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ",80,,"RandomThinker","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-21T09:51:52.000Z","2012-10-21T02:14:46.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ",75,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-21T02:14:46.000Z","2012-10-21T02:14:46.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ",10,,"actrice","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-15T23:15:27.000Z","2012-10-21T02:14:46.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ",10,,"Madplatypus","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-15T23:01:01.000Z","2012-10-21T02:14:46.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ",10,,"William-Quixote","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-22T23:55:10.000Z","2012-10-21T02:14:46.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ",51,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-21T16:08:49.000Z","2012-10-21T02:14:46.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.",80,,"Harbinger1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T02:50:30.000Z","2011-11-17T02:50:30.000Z","2029-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.",0,,"Anubhav","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T04:11:18.000Z","2011-11-17T02:50:30.000Z","2029-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.",0,,"lavalamp","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T16:51:47.000Z","2011-11-17T02:50:30.000Z","2029-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.",0,,"gwern","Harbinger1","per JoshuaZ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T20:22:23.000Z","2011-11-17T02:50:30.000Z","2029-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.",0,,"Isaac","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-18T03:22:41.000Z","2011-11-17T02:50:30.000Z","2029-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.",0,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1","That would include Western Europe which doesn't have a death penalty for anything right now. This would  be a major change. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T04:17:11.000Z","2011-11-17T02:50:30.000Z","2029-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.",0,,"Jayson Virissimo","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T06:05:13.000Z","2011-11-17T02:50:30.000Z","2029-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.",0,,"ahartell","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-21T02:50:03.000Z","2011-11-17T02:50:30.000Z","2029-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.",0,,"Arets Paeglis","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-01T01:20:32.000Z","2011-11-17T02:50:30.000Z","2029-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.",0,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-14T15:47:47.000Z","2011-11-17T02:50:30.000Z","2029-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.",46,,"themusicgod1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T22:07:57.000Z","2011-11-17T02:50:30.000Z","2029-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.",0,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1","themusicgod1, can you explainwhy you assign this such a high percentage? ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:43:58.000Z","2011-11-17T02:50:30.000Z","2029-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.",0,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T21:13:05.164Z","2011-11-17T02:50:30.000Z","2029-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.",0,,"deleteyourbrain","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:27:52.920Z","2011-11-17T02:50:30.000Z","2029-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.",0,,"Mqrius","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-19T16:45:22.000Z","2011-11-17T02:50:30.000Z","2029-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.",0,,"ygert","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-14T08:36:40.000Z","2011-11-17T02:50:30.000Z","2029-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.",0,,"pranomostro","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:14:41.698Z","2011-11-17T02:50:30.000Z","2029-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.",0,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T19:05:36.146Z","2011-11-17T02:50:30.000Z","2029-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.",55,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-29T01:15:35.000Z","2013-04-29T01:15:35.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.",5,,"JoshuaZ","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-29T04:25:07.000Z","2013-04-29T01:15:35.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.",1,,"Peter Hurford","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-29T13:38:31.000Z","2013-04-29T01:15:35.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.",10,,"NathanMcKnight","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-03T10:52:46.000Z","2013-04-29T01:15:35.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.",10,,"Samm","RandomThinker","Almost certainly rightwing and likely quite rich but Billionare is a lot of money. If you had said multi-millionare then I would have assesed it as far more likely",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-09T02:46:07.000Z","2013-04-29T01:15:35.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.",2,,"Michael Dickens","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-16T06:39:40.000Z","2013-04-29T01:15:35.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.",1,,"two2thehead","RandomThinker","Right wing needs definition imo. *Dollar* billionaire *before* inventing bitcoin? No.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-24T11:22:55.000Z","2013-04-29T01:15:35.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.",23,,"themusicgod1","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T15:10:56.000Z","2013-04-29T01:15:35.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.",5,,"RobertLumley","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-30T00:56:34.000Z","2013-04-29T01:15:35.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.",5,,"ShIxtan","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-30T04:45:05.000Z","2013-04-29T01:15:35.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.",2,,"procran","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-30T22:00:16.000Z","2013-04-29T01:15:35.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.",1,,"bobpage","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-01T07:05:36.000Z","2013-04-29T01:15:35.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.",1,,"hedges","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-01T11:39:30.000Z","2013-04-29T01:15:35.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.",2,,"ashrewdmint","RandomThinker","Is it really that far fetched to believe that Bitcoin was created by a lone programmer who wanted to hide his identity? It doesn't have to be a conspiracy.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-01T23:01:31.000Z","2013-04-29T01:15:35.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance",70,,"ShIxtan","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-24T03:52:20.000Z","2012-11-24T02:14:06.000Z","2023-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance",35,,"RandomThinker","lukeprog","cars don't even have telephones.  it went from the car back into the smartphone.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-25T15:23:27.000Z","2012-11-24T02:14:06.000Z","2023-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance",60,,"NathanMcKnight","lukeprog","If the prediction were ""By 2022, [almost] every new *object* will have broadband Internet,"" my prediction would drop to 50%.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-25T16:56:55.000Z","2012-11-24T02:14:06.000Z","2023-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance",30,,"Qiaochu","lukeprog","My prediction is low because I want to account for the possibility that broadband is replaced by something else. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-26T09:41:23.000Z","2012-11-24T02:14:06.000Z","2023-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance",25,,"ChristianKl","lukeprog","Internet in cars is likely to be sold as an additional feature that increases the price of the car. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-12-03T19:59:23.000Z","2012-11-24T02:14:06.000Z","2023-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance",50,,"Tuxedage","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-03T19:43:19.000Z","2012-11-24T02:14:06.000Z","2023-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance",35,,"Elithrion","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-01T02:38:56.000Z","2012-11-24T02:14:06.000Z","2023-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance",30,,"Benja","lukeprog","Intuitively feels unlikely and RandomThinker and ChristianKI seem to make strong arguments; I think I'd have given a lower estimate before seeing everybody else's",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-29T21:19:25.000Z","2012-11-24T02:14:06.000Z","2023-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance",54,,"themusicgod1","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T14:32:53.000Z","2012-11-24T02:14:06.000Z","2023-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance",40,,"pranomostro","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-10T16:05:25.000Z","2012-11-24T02:14:06.000Z","2023-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance",40,,"Baeboo","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T02:51:26.509Z","2012-11-24T02:14:06.000Z","2023-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance",45,,"lukeprog","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-24T02:14:06.000Z","2012-11-24T02:14:06.000Z","2023-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance",60,,"kilobug","lukeprog","Depending of the value of ""almost"".",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-25T09:58:33.000Z","2012-11-24T02:14:06.000Z","2023-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"ETI is AGI",41,,"CellBioGuy","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T07:50:50.076Z","2020-11-30T19:57:44.436Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"ETI is AGI",86,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:34:44.064Z","2020-11-30T19:57:44.436Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"ETI is AGI",91,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:34:33.213Z","2020-11-30T19:57:44.436Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"ETI is AGI",92,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:34:31.945Z","2020-11-30T19:57:44.436Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"ETI is AGI",91,,"AnthonyC","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:52:00.453Z","2020-11-30T19:57:44.436Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"ETI is AGI",99,,"Pialgo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:11:43.426Z","2020-11-30T19:57:44.436Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"ETI is AGI",65,,"adamShimi","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:02:54.960Z","2020-11-30T19:57:44.436Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"ETI is AGI",60,,"Emiya","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:59:55.909Z","2020-11-30T19:57:44.436Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"ETI is AGI",97,,"TurnTrout","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:35:11.185Z","2020-11-30T19:57:44.436Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"ETI is AGI",80,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:44:36.947Z","2020-11-30T19:57:44.436Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"ETI is AGI",65,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:21:35.081Z","2020-11-30T19:57:44.436Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"ETI is AGI",92,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:35:08.718Z","2020-11-30T19:57:44.436Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"ETI is AGI",99,,"VermillionStuka","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T23:16:54.163Z","2020-11-30T19:57:44.436Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"ETI is AGI",90,,"James_Miller","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T20:37:58.195Z","2020-11-30T19:57:44.436Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"ETI is AGI",95,,"James_Miller","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T20:37:43.884Z","2020-11-30T19:57:44.436Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"ETI is AGI",99,,"Michael H","Michael H","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T19:57:44.441Z","2020-11-30T19:57:44.436Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"ETI is AGI",90,,"Yousif","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T22:34:32.873Z","2020-11-30T19:57:44.436Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"ETI is AGI",91,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:35:07.633Z","2020-11-30T19:57:44.436Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity still a thing in 2036",99,,"ioannes","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-16T17:46:49.000Z","2016-05-13T15:29:26.000Z","2036-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity still a thing in 2036",99,,"Medea","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-15T10:53:53.000Z","2016-05-13T15:29:26.000Z","2036-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity still a thing in 2036",99,,"PlacidPlatypus","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-19T17:10:50.000Z","2016-05-13T15:29:26.000Z","2036-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity still a thing in 2036",98,,"Ken","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-26T17:25:56.000Z","2016-05-13T15:29:26.000Z","2036-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity still a thing in 2036",79,,"Paul.David.Carr","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-27T18:32:13.000Z","2016-05-13T15:29:26.000Z","2036-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity still a thing in 2036",98,,"davatk","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-01T22:56:21.000Z","2016-05-13T15:29:26.000Z","2036-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity still a thing in 2036",100,,"splorridge","themusicgod1","""still a thing"" as in humans exist?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-24T13:40:34.000Z","2016-05-13T15:29:26.000Z","2036-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity still a thing in 2036",51,,"TiTanTHPS","themusicgod1","Whole lot of existential risk ripe to wipe us out. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-25T22:29:48.000Z","2016-05-13T15:29:26.000Z","2036-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity still a thing in 2036",99,,"Jayson Virissimo","themusicgod1","Would rather this was operationalized, but whatever.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-23T17:22:21.000Z","2016-05-13T15:29:26.000Z","2036-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity still a thing in 2036",98,,"JoshuaZ","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-13T15:49:23.000Z","2016-05-13T15:29:26.000Z","2036-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity still a thing in 2036",80,,"olivia","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-26T18:53:23.000Z","2016-05-13T15:29:26.000Z","2036-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity still a thing in 2036",100,,"NickN","themusicgod1","How about this: If there is still someone to judge this, that points to the prediction being right",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-22T10:52:06.671Z","2016-05-13T15:29:26.000Z","2036-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity still a thing in 2036",57,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-13T15:29:26.000Z","2016-05-13T15:29:26.000Z","2036-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.",15,,"avturchin","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T08:37:56.766Z","2020-11-30T19:48:54.861Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.",98,,"AnthonyC","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:47:21.213Z","2020-11-30T19:48:54.861Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.",80,,"adamShimi","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:58:42.016Z","2020-11-30T19:48:54.861Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.",72,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:18:30.489Z","2020-11-30T19:48:54.861Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.",34,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:31:59.074Z","2020-11-30T19:48:54.861Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.",94,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:18:14.446Z","2020-11-30T19:48:54.861Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.",75,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:18:34.530Z","2020-11-30T19:48:54.861Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.",80,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:18:23.954Z","2020-11-30T19:48:54.861Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.",99,,"TurnTrout","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:30:59.916Z","2020-11-30T19:48:54.861Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.",99,,"Perhaps","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T15:20:49.070Z","2020-11-30T19:48:54.861Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.",95,,"Pialgo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:08:02.299Z","2020-11-30T19:48:54.861Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.",90,,"Pialgo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:08:00.308Z","2020-11-30T19:48:54.861Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.",91,,"Pialgo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:07:59.484Z","2020-11-30T19:48:54.861Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.",50,,"Pialgo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:07:56.615Z","2020-11-30T19:48:54.861Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.",80,,"lsusr","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T21:27:10.848Z","2020-11-30T19:48:54.861Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.",10,,"Michael H","Michael H","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T19:48:54.871Z","2020-11-30T19:48:54.861Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.",99,,"Yousif","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T22:23:46.754Z","2020-11-30T19:48:54.861Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.",99,,"CellBioGuy","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T07:48:52.306Z","2020-11-30T19:48:54.861Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.",44,,"Benjy Forstadt","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T23:03:22.355Z","2020-11-30T19:48:54.861Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.",47,,"avturchin","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T08:38:00.929Z","2020-11-30T19:49:09.865Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.",50,,"AnthonyC","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:47:31.184Z","2020-11-30T19:49:09.865Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.",60,,"adamShimi","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:58:51.916Z","2020-11-30T19:49:09.865Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.",49,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:15:10.546Z","2020-11-30T19:49:09.865Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.",25,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:31:36.136Z","2020-11-30T19:49:09.865Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.",28,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:31:34.022Z","2020-11-30T19:49:09.865Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.",30,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:31:28.464Z","2020-11-30T19:49:09.865Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.",29,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:31:27.525Z","2020-11-30T19:49:09.865Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.",65,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:43:17.654Z","2020-11-30T19:49:09.865Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.",60,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:19:41.980Z","2020-11-30T19:49:09.865Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.",34,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:18:43.000Z","2020-11-30T19:49:09.865Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.",20,,"Emiya","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:51:37.098Z","2020-11-30T19:49:09.865Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.",42,,"TurnTrout","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:31:12.603Z","2020-11-30T19:49:09.865Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.",30,,"Perhaps","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T15:21:08.863Z","2020-11-30T19:49:09.865Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.",40,,"Pialgo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:08:13.162Z","2020-11-30T19:49:09.865Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.",86,,"shminux","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T20:26:51.407Z","2020-11-30T19:49:09.865Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.",1,,"shminux","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T20:26:44.386Z","2020-11-30T19:49:09.865Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.",5,,"Michael H","Michael H","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T19:49:09.872Z","2020-11-30T19:49:09.865Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.",75,,"Yousif","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T22:25:39.544Z","2020-11-30T19:49:09.865Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.",4,,"pranomostro","freyley",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T23:27:26.000Z","2009-10-20T03:50:31.000Z","2026-10-20T03:50:31.000Z"
"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.",1,,"lavalamp","freyley",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-10T23:50:25.000Z","2009-10-20T03:50:31.000Z","2026-10-20T03:50:31.000Z"
"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.",3,,"JoshuaZ","freyley",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-24T17:55:50.000Z","2009-10-20T03:50:31.000Z","2026-10-20T03:50:31.000Z"
"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.",50,,"Arenamontanus","freyley","It is not bioethics that is the hard problem, it is finding ways of translating media into the individual 'mentalese' of different brains.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-20T14:34:03.000Z","2009-10-20T03:50:31.000Z","2026-10-20T03:50:31.000Z"
"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.",35,,"anonym","freyley",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-20T05:40:38.000Z","2009-10-20T03:50:31.000Z","2026-10-20T03:50:31.000Z"
"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.",0,,"deleteyourbrain","freyley",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:17:11.796Z","2009-10-20T03:50:31.000Z","2026-10-20T03:50:31.000Z"
"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.",5,,"Baeboo","freyley",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T01:26:50.657Z","2009-10-20T03:50:31.000Z","2026-10-20T03:50:31.000Z"
"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.",20,,"regex","freyley",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-22T05:07:49.000Z","2009-10-20T03:50:31.000Z","2026-10-20T03:50:31.000Z"
"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.",36,,"themusicgod1","freyley","I don't think 'relatively safe' will quite be the way to describe it, though the kids will probably call it that",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T22:58:24.000Z","2009-10-20T03:50:31.000Z","2026-10-20T03:50:31.000Z"
"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.",5,,"Anubhav","freyley",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-12T14:09:12.000Z","2009-10-20T03:50:31.000Z","2026-10-20T03:50:31.000Z"
"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.",5,,"gwern","freyley",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-19T21:45:54.000Z","2009-10-20T03:50:31.000Z","2026-10-20T03:50:31.000Z"
"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.",5,,"Jack","freyley","Ethical constraints on brain testing mean we won't have enough information to make this possible by 2026.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-20T06:17:17.000Z","2009-10-20T03:50:31.000Z","2026-10-20T03:50:31.000Z"
"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.",21,,"freyley","freyley",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-20T03:50:32.000Z","2009-10-20T03:50:31.000Z","2026-10-20T03:50:31.000Z"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?",5,,"AnthonyC","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:46:58.454Z","2020-11-30T19:39:31.580Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?",65,,"adamShimi","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:57:54.207Z","2020-11-30T19:39:31.580Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?",25,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:16:21.385Z","2020-11-30T19:39:31.580Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?",53,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:13:46.153Z","2020-11-30T19:39:31.580Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?",85,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:30:35.720Z","2020-11-30T19:39:31.580Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?",60,,"Emiya","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:51:05.455Z","2020-11-30T19:39:31.580Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?",75,,"Perhaps","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T15:20:14.728Z","2020-11-30T19:39:31.580Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?",1,,"shminux","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T20:26:38.370Z","2020-11-30T19:39:31.580Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?",50,,"Pialgo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:07:34.985Z","2020-11-30T19:39:31.580Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?",55,,"damiensnyder","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T03:23:43.304Z","2020-11-30T19:39:31.580Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?",1,,"Michael H","Michael H","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T19:39:31.588Z","2020-11-30T19:39:31.580Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?",99,,"Yousif","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T22:22:06.526Z","2020-11-30T19:39:31.580Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?",75,,"Yousif","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T22:22:26.675Z","2020-11-30T19:39:31.580Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?",70,,"CellBioGuy","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T07:48:36.412Z","2020-11-30T19:39:31.580Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)",2,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:41:35.116Z","2020-11-30T19:49:29.251Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)",20,,"AnthonyC","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:47:51.972Z","2020-11-30T19:49:29.251Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)",20,,"adamShimi","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:59:03.492Z","2020-11-30T19:49:29.251Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)",20,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:15:42.164Z","2020-11-30T19:49:29.251Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)",5,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:32:18.706Z","2020-11-30T19:49:29.251Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)",15,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:20:18.798Z","2020-11-30T19:49:29.251Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)",30,,"Emiya","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:51:46.158Z","2020-11-30T19:49:29.251Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)",33,,"TurnTrout","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:31:35.851Z","2020-11-30T19:49:29.251Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)",75,,"Perhaps","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T15:21:50.363Z","2020-11-30T19:49:29.251Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)",23,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:21:41.240Z","2020-11-30T19:49:29.251Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)",15,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:21:36.807Z","2020-11-30T19:49:29.251Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)",20,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:21:32.296Z","2020-11-30T19:49:29.251Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)",11,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:20:49.993Z","2020-11-30T19:49:29.251Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)",15,,"Pialgo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:08:30.016Z","2020-11-30T19:49:29.251Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)",69,,"elephantiskon","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T22:32:08.358Z","2020-11-30T19:49:29.251Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)",20,,"Michael H","Michael H","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T19:49:29.260Z","2020-11-30T19:49:29.251Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)",40,,"damiensnyder","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T03:24:45.121Z","2020-11-30T19:49:29.251Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)",95,,"Yousif","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T22:25:12.580Z","2020-11-30T19:49:29.251Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.",100,,"rwallace","bogdanb",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-14T10:33:06.000Z","2009-10-14T10:03:08.000Z","2019-10-14T10:03:08.000Z"
"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.",91,,"danb","bogdanb",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-14T14:26:28.000Z","2009-10-14T10:03:08.000Z","2019-10-14T10:03:08.000Z"
"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.",75,,"im","bogdanb",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-15T16:31:41.000Z","2009-10-14T10:03:08.000Z","2019-10-14T10:03:08.000Z"
"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.",95,,"gwern","bogdanb",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-27T22:10:06.000Z","2009-10-14T10:03:08.000Z","2019-10-14T10:03:08.000Z"
"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.",98,,"pranomostro","bogdanb",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T23:08:53.000Z","2009-10-14T10:03:08.000Z","2019-10-14T10:03:08.000Z"
"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.",100,,"Pablo","bogdanb",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-10-13T21:47:51.711Z","2009-10-14T10:03:08.000Z","2019-10-14T10:03:08.000Z"
"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.",99,,"bogdanb","bogdanb",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-14T10:03:08.000Z","2009-10-14T10:03:08.000Z","2019-10-14T10:03:08.000Z"
"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.",90,,"tommccabe","bogdanb",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-14T15:42:29.000Z","2009-10-14T10:03:08.000Z","2019-10-14T10:03:08.000Z"
"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.",95,,"Jack","bogdanb",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-14T17:50:15.000Z","2009-10-14T10:03:08.000Z","2019-10-14T10:03:08.000Z"
"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.",80,,"mjgeddes","bogdanb",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-15T02:29:02.000Z","2009-10-14T10:03:08.000Z","2019-10-14T10:03:08.000Z"
"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.",65,,"anonym","bogdanb",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-17T08:23:32.000Z","2009-10-14T10:03:08.000Z","2019-10-14T10:03:08.000Z"
"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.",89,,"Baeboo","bogdanb",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-25T04:31:59.000Z","2009-10-14T10:03:08.000Z","2019-10-14T10:03:08.000Z"
"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.",97,,"Baeboo","bogdanb",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-25T04:32:31.000Z","2009-10-14T10:03:08.000Z","2019-10-14T10:03:08.000Z"
"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.",93,,"Baeboo","bogdanb",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-07T18:07:05.000Z","2009-10-14T10:03:08.000Z","2019-10-14T10:03:08.000Z"
"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.",98,,"Baeboo","bogdanb",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-26T04:22:18.000Z","2009-10-14T10:03:08.000Z","2019-10-14T10:03:08.000Z"
"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.",0,,"deleteyourbrain","bogdanb",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:07:55.560Z","2009-10-14T10:03:08.000Z","2019-10-14T10:03:08.000Z"
"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today",75,,"rappatoni","jamesrom",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-25T14:20:25.572Z","2020-08-22T02:39:27.312Z","2024-08-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today",15,,"NickN","jamesrom","https://eand.co/this-is-why-it-feels-like-the-democrats-are-going-to-lose-7b96ad6e40a5",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-02T12:31:58.975Z","2020-08-22T02:39:27.312Z","2024-08-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today",40,,"Reactionaryhistorian","jamesrom",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-28T22:01:05.101Z","2020-08-22T02:39:27.312Z","2024-08-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today",50,,"PlacidPlatypus","jamesrom","0%? Really? Someone's gone down an ideology rabbit hole looks like.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-27T17:27:46.013Z","2020-08-22T02:39:27.312Z","2024-08-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today",30,,"NickN","jamesrom",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-22T10:47:19.311Z","2020-08-22T02:39:27.312Z","2024-08-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today",45,,"Stephen","jamesrom","Ballparking (no real math) on https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html average man his age lives to be 87. I guess a 55% chance of being elected.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-22T04:00:44.132Z","2020-08-22T02:39:27.312Z","2024-08-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today",0,,"jamesrom","jamesrom",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-22T02:39:27.323Z","2020-08-22T02:39:27.312Z","2024-08-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today",15,,"FrancinePefko","jamesrom",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-21T16:11:28.214Z","2020-08-22T02:39:27.312Z","2024-08-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today",21,,"kenlogan@gmail.com","jamesrom",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-09T13:46:27.670Z","2020-08-22T02:39:27.312Z","2024-08-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today",0,,"najdorf","jamesrom",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-04T12:46:24.737Z","2020-08-22T02:39:27.312Z","2024-08-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today",14,,"NickN","jamesrom","https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301190941110341632",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-02T16:27:56.950Z","2020-08-22T02:39:27.312Z","2024-08-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today",65,,"PlacidPlatypus","jamesrom","Time has passed, his lead has grown, and his health doesn't seem any worse.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-06T22:05:26.380Z","2020-08-22T02:39:27.312Z","2024-08-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today",25,,"chemotaxis101","jamesrom",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-07T19:05:02.436Z","2020-08-22T02:39:27.312Z","2024-08-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today",55,,"sty.silver","jamesrom",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-28T21:31:58.217Z","2020-08-22T02:39:27.312Z","2024-08-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today",26,,"Baeboo","jamesrom",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-28T18:10:44.945Z","2020-08-22T02:39:27.312Z","2024-08-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today",64,,"JoshuaZ","jamesrom",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-28T13:30:37.757Z","2020-08-22T02:39:27.312Z","2024-08-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.",35,,"pepe_prime","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T11:29:56.153Z","2021-01-09T05:50:16.802Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.",20,,"Oskar Mathiasen","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T12:05:07.861Z","2021-01-09T05:50:16.802Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.",55,,"ejacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T00:00:29.369Z","2021-01-09T05:50:16.802Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.",15,,"ChristianKl","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T12:22:03.101Z","2021-01-09T05:50:16.802Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.",67,,"libero","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T09:16:55.482Z","2021-01-09T05:50:16.802Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.",24,,"NunoSempere","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:35:27.762Z","2021-01-09T05:50:16.802Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.",25,,"NunoSempere","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:35:28.996Z","2021-01-09T05:50:16.802Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.",90,,"Geoffrey Wood","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:33:31.088Z","2021-01-09T05:50:16.802Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.",35,,"philh","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T19:17:18.104Z","2021-01-09T05:50:16.802Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.",15,,"Zvi","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T21:57:03.406Z","2021-01-09T05:50:16.802Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.",70,,"Dagon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T20:33:23.076Z","2021-01-09T05:50:16.802Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.",20,,"deluks917","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:50:08.228Z","2021-01-09T05:50:16.802Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.",25,,"Zvi","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T21:57:02.130Z","2021-01-09T05:50:16.802Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.",25,,"jefftk","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T20:53:39.193Z","2021-01-09T05:50:16.802Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.",35,,"Benjamin Rachbach","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:23:04.266Z","2021-01-09T05:50:16.802Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the number of active COVID cases in California increase by more than 15K between Fri 11/20 and Sun 11/22?",80,"YES","Abigail T","Amanda N","If the increase increases at roughly its current rate, it comes out well over, but things seem to fluctuate a lot over two-day time periods","Resolution: The # of active cases was 560,977 on Sunday and 543,101 on Friday, which is an increase of 17,876.

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the Active Cases in California graph on this link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/
Resolution will take the reported value for Sun 11/22 and subtract the reported value for Fri 11/20","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-16T01:55:03.032Z","2020-11-13T17:42:24.677Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the number of active COVID cases in California increase by more than 15K between Fri 11/20 and Sun 11/22?",60,"YES","Nicholas","Amanda N","very rough prior from eyeballing graph","Resolution: The # of active cases was 560,977 on Sunday and 543,101 on Friday, which is an increase of 17,876.

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the Active Cases in California graph on this link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/
Resolution will take the reported value for Sun 11/22 and subtract the reported value for Fri 11/20","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:21:52.945Z","2020-11-13T17:42:24.677Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the number of active COVID cases in California increase by more than 15K between Fri 11/20 and Sun 11/22?",80,"YES","Amanda N","Amanda N","This was a test prediction","Resolution: The # of active cases was 560,977 on Sunday and 543,101 on Friday, which is an increase of 17,876.

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the Active Cases in California graph on this link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/
Resolution will take the reported value for Sun 11/22 and subtract the reported value for Fri 11/20","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:14:59.720Z","2020-11-13T17:42:24.677Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the number of active COVID cases in California increase by more than 15K between Fri 11/20 and Sun 11/22?",92,"YES","William S","Amanda N","Base rate from the graph seems that this almost always goes up, adjusting downwards slightly because maybe I'm misunderstanding something about the question?","Resolution: The # of active cases was 560,977 on Sunday and 543,101 on Friday, which is an increase of 17,876.

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the Active Cases in California graph on this link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/
Resolution will take the reported value for Sun 11/22 and subtract the reported value for Fri 11/20","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:15:12.637Z","2020-11-13T17:42:24.677Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the number of active COVID cases in California increase by more than 15K between Fri 11/20 and Sun 11/22?",45,"YES","Dilhan P","Amanda N","Seems borderline to me. 2-day increases of >15000 seem rare so far in CA (base rate about 5%), but the rate of increase of new cases in the past week also seems unprecedented","Resolution: The # of active cases was 560,977 on Sunday and 543,101 on Friday, which is an increase of 17,876.

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the Active Cases in California graph on this link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/
Resolution will take the reported value for Sun 11/22 and subtract the reported value for Fri 11/20","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-14T15:59:18.252Z","2020-11-13T17:42:24.677Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the number of active COVID cases in California increase by more than 15K between Fri 11/20 and Sun 11/22?",80,"YES","marcin.kowrygo","Amanda N","","Resolution: The # of active cases was 560,977 on Sunday and 543,101 on Friday, which is an increase of 17,876.

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the Active Cases in California graph on this link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/
Resolution will take the reported value for Sun 11/22 and subtract the reported value for Fri 11/20","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T17:18:24.829Z","2020-11-13T17:42:24.677Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the number of active COVID cases in California increase by more than 15K between Fri 11/20 and Sun 11/22?",85,"YES","mattvdm","Amanda N","prev week (Fri 13–Sun 15) was +13.1k; curve looks to have steepened","Resolution: The # of active cases was 560,977 on Sunday and 543,101 on Friday, which is an increase of 17,876.

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the Active Cases in California graph on this link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/
Resolution will take the reported value for Sun 11/22 and subtract the reported value for Fri 11/20","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T10:29:13.696Z","2020-11-13T17:42:24.677Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the number of active COVID cases in California increase by more than 15K between Fri 11/20 and Sun 11/22?",85,"YES","marcin.kowrygo","Amanda N","","Resolution: The # of active cases was 560,977 on Sunday and 543,101 on Friday, which is an increase of 17,876.

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the Active Cases in California graph on this link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/
Resolution will take the reported value for Sun 11/22 and subtract the reported value for Fri 11/20","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T17:58:09.797Z","2020-11-13T17:42:24.677Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the number of active COVID cases in California increase by more than 15K between Fri 11/20 and Sun 11/22?",70,"YES","Ben L","Amanda N","election parties created super spreader groups","Resolution: The # of active cases was 560,977 on Sunday and 543,101 on Friday, which is an increase of 17,876.

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the Active Cases in California graph on this link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/
Resolution will take the reported value for Sun 11/22 and subtract the reported value for Fri 11/20","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:13:17.892Z","2020-11-13T17:42:24.677Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the number of active COVID cases in California increase by more than 15K between Fri 11/20 and Sun 11/22?",60,"YES","Hoorman_Cain","Amanda N","","Resolution: The # of active cases was 560,977 on Sunday and 543,101 on Friday, which is an increase of 17,876.

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the Active Cases in California graph on this link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/
Resolution will take the reported value for Sun 11/22 and subtract the reported value for Fri 11/20","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T03:16:34.620Z","2020-11-13T17:42:24.677Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the number of active COVID cases in California increase by more than 15K between Fri 11/20 and Sun 11/22?",65,"YES","Will B","Amanda N","","Resolution: The # of active cases was 560,977 on Sunday and 543,101 on Friday, which is an increase of 17,876.

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the Active Cases in California graph on this link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/
Resolution will take the reported value for Sun 11/22 and subtract the reported value for Fri 11/20","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T00:46:50.058Z","2020-11-13T17:42:24.677Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the number of active COVID cases in California increase by more than 15K between Fri 11/20 and Sun 11/22?",78,"YES","Ethan Perez","Amanda N","","Resolution: The # of active cases was 560,977 on Sunday and 543,101 on Friday, which is an increase of 17,876.

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the Active Cases in California graph on this link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/
Resolution will take the reported value for Sun 11/22 and subtract the reported value for Fri 11/20","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:46:38.188Z","2020-11-13T17:42:24.677Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the number of active COVID cases in California increase by more than 15K between Fri 11/20 and Sun 11/22?",70,"YES","Andreas S","Amanda N","","Resolution: The # of active cases was 560,977 on Sunday and 543,101 on Friday, which is an increase of 17,876.

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the Active Cases in California graph on this link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/
Resolution will take the reported value for Sun 11/22 and subtract the reported value for Fri 11/20","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-19T23:11:52.189Z","2020-11-13T17:42:24.677Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the number of active COVID cases in California increase by more than 15K between Fri 11/20 and Sun 11/22?",70,"YES","Linh Chi N","Amanda N","weekend reports are ~20% lower than on other days","Resolution: The # of active cases was 560,977 on Sunday and 543,101 on Friday, which is an increase of 17,876.

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the Active Cases in California graph on this link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/
Resolution will take the reported value for Sun 11/22 and subtract the reported value for Fri 11/20","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-19T23:24:28.579Z","2020-11-13T17:42:24.677Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the number of active COVID cases in California increase by more than 15K between Fri 11/20 and Sun 11/22?",75,"YES","Linh Chi N","Amanda N","","Resolution: The # of active cases was 560,977 on Sunday and 543,101 on Friday, which is an increase of 17,876.

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the Active Cases in California graph on this link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/
Resolution will take the reported value for Sun 11/22 and subtract the reported value for Fri 11/20","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-19T23:25:03.288Z","2020-11-13T17:42:24.677Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the number of active COVID cases in California increase by more than 15K between Fri 11/20 and Sun 11/22?",77,"YES","Nicholas","Amanda N","","Resolution: The # of active cases was 560,977 on Sunday and 543,101 on Friday, which is an increase of 17,876.

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the Active Cases in California graph on this link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/
Resolution will take the reported value for Sun 11/22 and subtract the reported value for Fri 11/20","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T04:51:00.143Z","2020-11-13T17:42:24.677Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the number of active COVID cases in California increase by more than 15K between Fri 11/20 and Sun 11/22?",65,"YES","Dilhan P","Amanda N","Updating given most recent data","Resolution: The # of active cases was 560,977 on Sunday and 543,101 on Friday, which is an increase of 17,876.

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the Active Cases in California graph on this link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/
Resolution will take the reported value for Sun 11/22 and subtract the reported value for Fri 11/20","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T07:58:27.322Z","2020-11-13T17:42:24.677Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the number of active COVID cases in California increase by more than 15K between Fri 11/20 and Sun 11/22?",60,"YES","William S","Amanda N","Misunderstood question before","Resolution: The # of active cases was 560,977 on Sunday and 543,101 on Friday, which is an increase of 17,876.

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the Active Cases in California graph on this link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/
Resolution will take the reported value for Sun 11/22 and subtract the reported value for Fri 11/20","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:57:14.043Z","2020-11-13T17:42:24.677Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the number of active COVID cases in California increase by more than 15K between Fri 11/20 and Sun 11/22?",70,"YES","Nicholas","Amanda N","updating up from some better data + trust in community","Resolution: The # of active cases was 560,977 on Sunday and 543,101 on Friday, which is an increase of 17,876.

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the Active Cases in California graph on this link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/
Resolution will take the reported value for Sun 11/22 and subtract the reported value for Fri 11/20","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T19:00:01.851Z","2020-11-13T17:42:24.677Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the number of active COVID cases in California increase by more than 15K between Fri 11/20 and Sun 11/22?",40,"YES","Nicholas","Amanda N","looked at graph better.  Still very uncertain","Resolution: The # of active cases was 560,977 on Sunday and 543,101 on Friday, which is an increase of 17,876.

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the Active Cases in California graph on this link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/
Resolution will take the reported value for Sun 11/22 and subtract the reported value for Fri 11/20","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:29:31.650Z","2020-11-13T17:42:24.677Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will the number of active COVID cases in California increase by more than 15K between Fri 11/20 and Sun 11/22?",90,"YES","Amanda N","Amanda N","In the last two days, it increased by 11K. The two days before that, it increased by 9K. The trend looks like it's increasing, so it seems likely that it'll get to an increase of 15K, even if it's just a linear increase trend.","Resolution: The # of active cases was 560,977 on Sunday and 543,101 on Friday, which is an increase of 17,876.

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the Active Cases in California graph on this link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/
Resolution will take the reported value for Sun 11/22 and subtract the reported value for Fri 11/20","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:23:00.594Z","2020-11-13T17:42:24.677Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",30,,"Baeboo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-15T21:45:20.891Z","2012-10-01T14:02:11.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",10,,"qznc","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-15T18:28:11.174Z","2012-10-01T14:02:11.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",30,,"ChristianKl","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-29T21:25:56.000Z","2012-10-01T14:02:11.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",32,,"Baeboo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T02:28:38.573Z","2012-10-01T14:02:11.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",20,,"pranomostro","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:31:15.913Z","2012-10-01T14:02:11.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",15,,"pranomostro","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:30:52.619Z","2012-10-01T14:02:11.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",46,,"themusicgod1","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:33:44.000Z","2012-10-01T14:02:11.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",25,,"Michael Dickens","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-01T20:30:47.000Z","2012-10-01T14:02:11.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",15,,"lavalamp","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-16T20:54:42.000Z","2012-10-01T14:02:11.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",20,,"Qiaochu","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-12-06T09:40:42.000Z","2012-10-01T14:02:11.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",35,,"chemotaxis101","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-13T17:43:44.000Z","2012-10-01T14:02:11.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",40,,"gwern","Pablo","human cloning so far seems to have zero uptake, more than a decade after Dolly. even animal cloning is only successful in a few niches - (although cattle is a very big niche)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T19:29:39.000Z","2012-10-01T14:02:11.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",80,,"NathanMcKnight","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T16:02:45.000Z","2012-10-01T14:02:11.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",45,,"JoshuaZ","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-15T17:15:59.000Z","2012-10-01T14:02:11.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",45,,"JoshuaZ","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-15T17:16:01.000Z","2012-10-01T14:02:11.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",25,,"Pablo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T14:02:11.000Z","2012-10-01T14:02:11.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.",70,,"EvanWard97","pvoberstein",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-15T15:22:43.724Z","2020-04-10T16:16:16.552Z","2020-12-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.",40,,"Medea","pvoberstein",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-10T11:59:03.980Z","2020-04-10T16:16:16.552Z","2020-12-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.",24,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","pvoberstein",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-15T11:28:59.943Z","2020-04-10T16:16:16.552Z","2020-12-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.",30,,"Medea","pvoberstein",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-09T12:28:39.427Z","2020-04-10T16:16:16.552Z","2020-12-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.",50,,"pvoberstein","pvoberstein",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-10T16:16:16.565Z","2020-04-10T16:16:16.552Z","2020-12-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.",30,,"qznc","pvoberstein",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-11T10:53:49.137Z","2020-04-10T16:16:16.552Z","2020-12-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.",60,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","pvoberstein",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-15T04:35:39.499Z","2020-04-10T16:16:16.552Z","2020-12-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.",70,,"sjy","pvoberstein",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-20T14:22:17.555Z","2020-04-10T16:16:16.552Z","2020-12-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.",20,,"erstwhile","pvoberstein","Seems plausible, but there are so many potential alternatives I have a hard time assigning a higher probability.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-20T14:48:24.649Z","2020-04-10T16:16:16.552Z","2020-12-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.",80,,"Adam Zerner","pvoberstein",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-08T02:26:00.940Z","2020-04-10T16:16:16.552Z","2020-12-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.",15,,"overtone","pvoberstein","Same, erstwhile, same.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-31T01:35:31.606Z","2020-04-10T16:16:16.552Z","2020-12-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.",12,,"JoshuaZ","pvoberstein",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-31T13:50:07.830Z","2020-04-10T16:16:16.552Z","2020-12-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.",33,,"JohnGreer","pvoberstein",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-01T16:57:18.331Z","2020-04-10T16:16:16.552Z","2020-12-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.",40,,"panashe","pvoberstein",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-01T20:18:27.041Z","2020-04-10T16:16:16.552Z","2020-12-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.",30,,"unexpectedEOF","pvoberstein",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-19T04:31:29.752Z","2020-04-10T16:16:16.552Z","2020-12-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022",3,,"Baeboo","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T05:09:54.001Z","2018-01-19T01:23:58.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022",1,,"NickN","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T00:34:09.190Z","2018-01-19T01:23:58.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022",12,,"playablecharacter","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-01-19T01:23:58.000Z","2018-01-19T01:23:58.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022",5,,"gallerdude","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-01-22T01:26:38.000Z","2018-01-19T01:23:58.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022",5,,"ccokeefe","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-01-23T04:54:42.000Z","2018-01-19T01:23:58.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022",5,,"Bacon1001","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-01-25T01:08:07.000Z","2018-01-19T01:23:58.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022",5,,"Medea","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T16:28:04.000Z","2018-01-19T01:23:58.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022",5,,"avi","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-10T09:29:07.000Z","2018-01-19T01:23:58.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022",4,,"pranomostro","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-02T21:06:40.000Z","2018-01-19T01:23:58.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022",2,,"PlacidPlatypus","playablecharacter","Most of the time has passed with no sign of this happening.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T13:54:27.422Z","2018-01-19T01:23:58.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022",8,,"PlacidPlatypus","playablecharacter","I'm defining ""invade"" as at least 100 soldiers staying on South Korean territory for at least 48 hours.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-01-22T22:40:39.000Z","2018-01-19T01:23:58.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022",9,,"JoshuaZ","playablecharacter","Using PlacidPlatypus's definition. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-01-24T04:20:45.000Z","2018-01-19T01:23:58.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022",5,,"adrepd","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-01-25T18:11:25.000Z","2018-01-19T01:23:58.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022",4,,"Baeboo","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T04:07:41.462Z","2018-01-19T01:23:58.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022",7,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-25T12:27:06.933Z","2018-01-19T01:23:58.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.",0,,"Temeraire","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-28T04:37:36.000Z","2016-05-07T04:11:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.",1,,"exasperative","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-06T22:02:13.000Z","2016-05-07T04:11:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.",1,,"PipFoweraker","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-18T04:18:27.000Z","2016-05-07T04:11:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.",0,,"jesselevine","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-15T14:37:46.000Z","2016-05-07T04:11:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.",1,,"two2thehead","themusicgod1","Generally accepted/frowned upon if not done? Sure. By *law*? No.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-11T23:50:15.000Z","2016-05-07T04:11:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.",1,,"EloiseRosen","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-08T21:45:10.000Z","2016-05-07T04:11:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.",8,,"JoshuaZ","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-07T20:33:46.000Z","2016-05-07T04:11:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.",0,,"NickN","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-22T10:46:11.543Z","2016-05-07T04:11:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.",2,,"PlacidPlatypus","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-11T18:19:15.000Z","2016-05-07T04:11:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.",1,,"Waring","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-09T00:47:33.000Z","2016-05-07T04:11:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.",43,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-07T04:11:28.000Z","2016-05-07T04:11:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.",4,,"RoryS","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-16T11:28:40.000Z","2016-05-07T04:11:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.",2,,"elephantower","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T23:43:56.000Z","2016-05-07T04:11:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050",42,,"themusicgod1","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-14T06:41:35.000Z","2015-08-19T18:53:12.000Z","2051-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050",20,,"Jayson Virissimo","btrettel","Am expecting dysgenic fertility to lower IQ in the next 2 decades, but for cognitive enhancers to overcome those effects in the decades after that.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-25T20:07:43.000Z","2015-08-19T18:53:12.000Z","2051-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050",30,,"booradleytron","btrettel","I haven't read these articles, but I guess I feel like at the rate the world is developing, it's unlikely that the average will DEcrease.  This is a great idea for a prediction @btrettel.  I'm very curious. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-25T18:37:43.000Z","2015-08-19T18:53:12.000Z","2051-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050",40,,"InquilineKea","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-25T04:18:50.000Z","2015-08-19T18:53:12.000Z","2051-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050",30,,"RoryS","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-22T14:39:13.000Z","2015-08-19T18:53:12.000Z","2051-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050",50,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-19T18:53:12.000Z","2015-08-19T18:53:12.000Z","2051-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050",55,,"ejlflop","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-16T03:17:04.000Z","2015-08-19T18:53:12.000Z","2051-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050",20,,"danielfilan","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-14T23:37:12.000Z","2015-08-19T18:53:12.000Z","2051-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050",30,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-22T18:32:52.000Z","2015-08-19T18:53:12.000Z","2051-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050",10,,"Afforess","btrettel","Flynn Effect.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-20T16:11:56.000Z","2015-08-19T18:53:12.000Z","2051-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050",30,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-20T05:17:30.000Z","2015-08-19T18:53:12.000Z","2051-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050",20,,"Michael Dickens","btrettel","Flynn effect will likely continue.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-20T02:34:36.000Z","2015-08-19T18:53:12.000Z","2051-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050",15,,"EloiseRosen","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-19T21:26:27.000Z","2015-08-19T18:53:12.000Z","2051-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050",25,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-19T20:01:58.000Z","2015-08-19T18:53:12.000Z","2051-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.",84,,"D0TheMath","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T17:13:41.551Z","2021-01-09T05:55:02.676Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.",79,,"D0TheMath","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T17:13:40.109Z","2021-01-09T05:55:02.676Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.",84,,"D0TheMath","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T17:13:38.681Z","2021-01-09T05:55:02.676Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.",85,,"D0TheMath","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T17:13:37.669Z","2021-01-09T05:55:02.676Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.",77,,"D0TheMath","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T17:13:34.975Z","2021-01-09T05:55:02.676Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.",70,,"ejacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T00:00:58.221Z","2021-01-09T05:55:02.676Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.",80,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T19:18:27.830Z","2021-01-09T05:55:02.676Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.",90,,"ChristianKl","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T12:23:10.255Z","2021-01-09T05:55:02.676Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.",75,,"Geoffrey Wood","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:34:27.114Z","2021-01-09T05:55:02.676Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.",90,,"NunoSempere","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:36:05.516Z","2021-01-09T05:55:02.676Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.",86,,"Zvi","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T21:57:51.723Z","2021-01-09T05:55:02.676Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.",75,,"philh","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T19:18:14.590Z","2021-01-09T05:55:02.676Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.",85,,"NunoSempere","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:36:07.178Z","2021-01-09T05:55:02.676Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.",75,,"deluks917","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:50:34.338Z","2021-01-09T05:55:02.676Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.",93,,"jefftk","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T20:54:11.249Z","2021-01-09T05:55:02.676Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.",75,,"Benjamin Rachbach","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:24:08.464Z","2021-01-09T05:55:02.676Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.",67,,"Dagon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T20:34:02.098Z","2021-01-09T05:55:02.676Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.",80,,"ChristianKl","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T12:23:13.640Z","2021-01-09T05:55:02.676Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.",95,,"pepe_prime","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T11:31:20.804Z","2021-01-09T05:55:02.676Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.",3,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1","ITER will be still new. Other forms of fusion don't seem to be doing that well. This claims not just working but ""revolutionize"" Do you have a specific type you think will do well? (Also, deadline needs to be fixed.) ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T01:58:25.000Z","2011-11-17T01:36:14.000Z","2025-11-17T20:25:00.000Z"
"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.",0,,"Anubhav","Harbinger1","Not enough time for that to happen. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T04:18:34.000Z","2011-11-17T01:36:14.000Z","2025-11-17T20:25:00.000Z"
"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.",1,,"lavalamp","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T17:03:45.000Z","2011-11-17T01:36:14.000Z","2025-11-17T20:25:00.000Z"
"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.",3,,"gwern","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T17:44:31.000Z","2011-11-17T01:36:14.000Z","2025-11-17T20:25:00.000Z"
"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.",1,,"btrettel","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-04T18:34:15.000Z","2011-11-17T01:36:14.000Z","2025-11-17T20:25:00.000Z"
"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.",2,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-14T15:48:47.000Z","2011-11-17T01:36:14.000Z","2025-11-17T20:25:00.000Z"
"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","Harbinger1","Even in 2050, fusion will have to be cheaper than fission, which currently isn't on track to happen.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-15T01:35:40.000Z","2011-11-17T01:36:14.000Z","2025-11-17T20:25:00.000Z"
"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.",1,,"pranomostro","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:47:44.028Z","2011-11-17T01:36:14.000Z","2025-11-17T20:25:00.000Z"
"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.",2,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T21:26:03.393Z","2011-11-17T01:36:14.000Z","2025-11-17T20:25:00.000Z"
"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.",80,,"Harbinger1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T01:36:14.000Z","2011-11-17T01:36:14.000Z","2025-11-17T20:25:00.000Z"
"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.",5,,"kilobug","Harbinger1","One day it'll, not in 2025",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-19T16:25:55.000Z","2011-11-17T01:36:14.000Z","2025-11-17T20:25:00.000Z"
"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.",2,,"ChristianKl","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-16T17:30:42.000Z","2011-11-17T01:36:14.000Z","2025-11-17T20:25:00.000Z"
"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.",40,,"themusicgod1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-10T04:19:15.000Z","2011-11-17T01:36:14.000Z","2025-11-17T20:25:00.000Z"
"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.",2,,"Baeboo","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T04:37:16.554Z","2011-11-17T01:36:14.000Z","2025-11-17T20:25:00.000Z"
"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.",0,,"deleteyourbrain","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:25:07.547Z","2011-11-17T01:36:14.000Z","2025-11-17T20:25:00.000Z"
"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson",30,,"gwern","Pablo","hm, uploads maybe although the discount rate problem remains (interstellar travel is really expensive). regular people? probably not",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T19:34:56.000Z","2012-10-01T16:41:30.000Z","9999-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson",25,,"Jayson Virissimo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-02T02:47:40.000Z","2012-10-01T16:41:30.000Z","9999-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson",25,,"kilobug","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-10T08:03:01.000Z","2012-10-01T16:41:30.000Z","9999-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson",30,,"Tuxedage","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-15T19:11:35.000Z","2012-10-01T16:41:30.000Z","9999-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson",10,,"army1987","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-14T11:32:50.000Z","2012-10-01T16:41:30.000Z","9999-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson",50,,"pranomostro","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:21:40.115Z","2012-10-01T16:41:30.000Z","9999-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson",35,,"pranomostro","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:21:49.599Z","2012-10-01T16:41:30.000Z","9999-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson",35,,"Baeboo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T02:33:44.740Z","2012-10-01T16:41:30.000Z","9999-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson",5,,"NathanMcKnight","Pablo","Interstellar travel is sloooow. Warp drive might do it, but I suspect we'll spend a good long time in the solar system before we move on. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-02T02:32:17.000Z","2012-10-01T16:41:30.000Z","9999-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson",10,,"chemotaxis101","Pablo","So what are the odds this particular piece of information will exist in 10,000 years?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-13T17:39:33.000Z","2012-10-01T16:41:30.000Z","9999-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson",40,,"DrDiaphanous","Pablo","I estimate there are 15 million stars within 1000 light years (based on 1 per 280 ly^3, tell me if you have a better estimate). So if humanity survives and sends out generation ships at 10% c ""soon"" (within 1000 yrs) this should be true.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-10T15:13:34.000Z","2012-10-01T16:41:30.000Z","9999-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson",21,,"JoshuaZ","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-27T16:03:31.000Z","2012-10-01T16:41:30.000Z","9999-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson",46,,"themusicgod1","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:37:49.000Z","2012-10-01T16:41:30.000Z","9999-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson",25,,"Pablo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T16:41:30.000Z","2012-10-01T16:41:30.000Z","9999-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021",1,,"Baeboo","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-01-12T02:35:26.000Z","2013-10-10T02:37:34.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021",6,,"themusicgod1","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-11T04:02:53.000Z","2013-10-10T02:37:34.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021",3,,"Temeraire","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-22T04:06:50.000Z","2013-10-10T02:37:34.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021",5,,"adbge","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-23T19:37:02.000Z","2013-10-10T02:37:34.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021",0,,"Peter Hurford","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-21T07:22:41.000Z","2013-10-10T02:37:34.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021",5,,"procran","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-20T00:02:21.000Z","2013-10-10T02:37:34.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021",1,,"Temeraire","Omid","this issues seems to have faded away.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-01-12T00:53:37.000Z","2013-10-10T02:37:34.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021",10,,"from3004","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-16T20:06:01.000Z","2013-10-10T02:37:34.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021",1,,"bobpage","Omid","too many conjunctions (shit goes down && Fed or someone accepts the coin && coins are billion-sized)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-14T22:39:11.000Z","2013-10-10T02:37:34.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021",5,,"RandomThinker","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-06T14:59:50.000Z","2013-10-10T02:37:34.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021",5,,"Omid","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-10T02:37:34.000Z","2013-10-10T02:37:34.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021",0,,"Baeboo","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T03:34:12.775Z","2013-10-10T02:37:34.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021",1,,"atroche","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-19T11:36:42.000Z","2013-10-10T02:37:34.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021",2,,"tylercurtis","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-10T17:04:27.000Z","2013-10-10T02:37:34.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021",14,,"adbge","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-10T15:56:46.000Z","2013-10-10T02:37:34.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021",13,,"HonoreDB","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-10T13:45:02.000Z","2013-10-10T02:37:34.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.",80,,"Harbinger1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T01:59:31.000Z","2011-11-17T01:59:31.000Z","2050-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.",55,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T02:13:38.000Z","2011-11-17T01:59:31.000Z","2050-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.",90,,"Anubhav","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T04:35:04.000Z","2011-11-17T01:59:31.000Z","2050-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.",50,,"Qiaochu","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-02T03:32:38.000Z","2011-11-17T01:59:31.000Z","2050-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.",65,,"Medea","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-08T20:09:44.000Z","2011-11-17T01:59:31.000Z","2050-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.",80,,"pranomostro","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:20:47.306Z","2011-11-17T01:59:31.000Z","2050-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.",0,,"deleteyourbrain","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:22:02.703Z","2011-11-17T01:59:31.000Z","2050-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.",75,,"NathanMcKnight","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T02:24:54.000Z","2011-11-17T01:59:31.000Z","2050-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.",40,,"lavalamp","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T16:57:31.000Z","2011-11-17T01:59:31.000Z","2050-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.",70,,"gwern","Harbinger1","hm, I thought we had a prediction about this already, but can't find it. pretty sensible - human pilots pretty much handle only takeoff and landing, and military is massively advancing the drone state of the art",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T17:54:40.000Z","2011-11-17T01:59:31.000Z","2050-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.",85,,"Isaac","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-18T03:20:16.000Z","2011-11-17T01:59:31.000Z","2050-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.",65,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1","Updating. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-01T19:48:36.000Z","2011-11-17T01:59:31.000Z","2050-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.",70,,"Tuxedage","Harbinger1","I think it's likely, with automated cars likely being mainstream by then. However, I'm also compensating for the general human mistrust of purely automated machines. Humans will likely demand a pilot, even if we don't need one.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-01T20:05:51.000Z","2011-11-17T01:59:31.000Z","2050-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.",53,,"themusicgod1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T21:59:40.000Z","2011-11-17T01:59:31.000Z","2050-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.",45,,"themusicgod1","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-10T00:30:08.000Z","2013-08-22T13:43:33.000Z","2033-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.",1,,"mad","Omid","Roman catholic church is a very conservative organisation, I don't like the chances.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-21T06:05:46.000Z","2013-08-22T13:43:33.000Z","2033-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.",25,,"Vulture","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-21T04:22:24.000Z","2013-08-22T13:43:33.000Z","2033-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.",1,,"modernalgebra","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-02T03:17:54.000Z","2013-08-22T13:43:33.000Z","2033-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.",19,,"holycow81","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-28T22:38:25.000Z","2013-08-22T13:43:33.000Z","2033-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.",5,,"lavalamp","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-24T00:59:08.000Z","2013-08-22T13:43:33.000Z","2033-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.",25,,"Patrick Brinich-Langlois","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-31T23:43:13.000Z","2013-08-22T13:43:33.000Z","2033-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.",10,,"mfb","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-31T16:18:11.000Z","2013-08-22T13:43:33.000Z","2033-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.",50,,"HonoreDB","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-29T12:31:10.000Z","2013-08-22T13:43:33.000Z","2033-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.",25,,"JoshuaZ","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-24T15:18:06.000Z","2013-08-22T13:43:33.000Z","2033-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.",10,,"Jayson Virissimo","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-24T05:34:13.000Z","2013-08-22T13:43:33.000Z","2033-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.",5,,"Omid","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-22T13:43:33.000Z","2013-08-22T13:43:33.000Z","2033-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.",20,,"NickN","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T01:53:39.680Z","2013-08-22T13:43:33.000Z","2033-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ",60,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-29T04:35:21.000Z","2012-10-29T04:35:21.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ",2,,"Ken","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-12T16:24:11.000Z","2012-10-29T04:35:21.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ",1,,"najdorf","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-06T22:53:51.000Z","2012-10-29T04:35:21.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ",1,,"EloiseRosen","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-21T21:16:34.000Z","2012-10-29T04:35:21.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ",46,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T14:05:06.000Z","2012-10-29T04:35:21.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ",20,,"RandomThinker","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-29T07:24:07.000Z","2012-10-29T04:35:21.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ",5,,"mmsalmon","NathanMcKnight","very unlikely",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-30T18:58:50.000Z","2012-10-29T04:35:21.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ",11,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-31T15:22:55.000Z","2012-10-29T04:35:21.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ",2,,"simplicio","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-23T20:20:17.000Z","2012-10-29T04:35:21.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ",13,,"Tuxedage","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-24T02:49:48.000Z","2012-10-29T04:35:21.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ",15,,"Michael Dickens","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-16T06:36:08.000Z","2012-10-29T04:35:21.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ",10,,"rebellionkid","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-06-12T09:09:12.000Z","2012-10-29T04:35:21.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ",5,,"Pablo","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-31T06:07:17.000Z","2012-10-29T04:35:21.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump dies of COVID-19",9,,"technillogue","technillogue",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-02T07:29:42.122Z","2020-10-02T07:20:40.610Z","2021-01-22T18:20:40.000Z"
"Trump dies of COVID-19",1,,"technillogue","technillogue",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-31T22:36:27.685Z","2020-10-02T07:20:40.610Z","2021-01-22T18:20:40.000Z"
"Trump dies of COVID-19",2,,"InquilineKea","technillogue",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-22T15:23:17.041Z","2020-10-02T07:20:40.610Z","2021-01-22T18:20:40.000Z"
"Trump dies of COVID-19",1,,"Baeboo","technillogue",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-17T02:33:10.629Z","2020-10-02T07:20:40.610Z","2021-01-22T18:20:40.000Z"
"Trump dies of COVID-19",1,,"bobpage","technillogue",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-15T21:24:58.708Z","2020-10-02T07:20:40.610Z","2021-01-22T18:20:40.000Z"
"Trump dies of COVID-19",2,,"Baeboo","technillogue",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-11T02:02:56.281Z","2020-10-02T07:20:40.610Z","2021-01-22T18:20:40.000Z"
"Trump dies of COVID-19",1,,"PlacidPlatypus","technillogue",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-20T13:13:36.507Z","2020-10-02T07:20:40.610Z","2021-01-22T18:20:40.000Z"
"Trump dies of COVID-19",10,,"jrk","technillogue",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-20T08:52:30.573Z","2020-10-02T07:20:40.610Z","2021-01-22T18:20:40.000Z"
"Trump dies of COVID-19",1,,"JoshuaZ","technillogue",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-16T11:03:04.495Z","2020-10-02T07:20:40.610Z","2021-01-22T18:20:40.000Z"
"Trump dies of COVID-19",2,,"JoshuaZ","technillogue",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-11T01:34:42.883Z","2020-10-02T07:20:40.610Z","2021-01-22T18:20:40.000Z"
"Trump dies of COVID-19",8,,"technillogue","technillogue",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-10T23:47:11.785Z","2020-10-02T07:20:40.610Z","2021-01-22T18:20:40.000Z"
"Trump dies of COVID-19",5,,"Jayson Virissimo","technillogue",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-08T18:53:11.895Z","2020-10-02T07:20:40.610Z","2021-01-22T18:20:40.000Z"
"Trump dies of COVID-19",4,,"JoshuaZ","technillogue",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-06T01:10:48.506Z","2020-10-02T07:20:40.610Z","2021-01-22T18:20:40.000Z"
"Trump dies of COVID-19",8,,"sty.silver","technillogue",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-05T16:45:52.841Z","2020-10-02T07:20:40.610Z","2021-01-22T18:20:40.000Z"
"Trump dies of COVID-19",8,,"jbeshir","technillogue",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-04T14:42:10.238Z","2020-10-02T07:20:40.610Z","2021-01-22T18:20:40.000Z"
"Trump dies of COVID-19",14,,"katriel","technillogue",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-03T18:29:44.450Z","2020-10-02T07:20:40.610Z","2021-01-22T18:20:40.000Z"
"Trump dies of COVID-19",12,,"PlacidPlatypus","technillogue",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-03T18:03:49.965Z","2020-10-02T07:20:40.610Z","2021-01-22T18:20:40.000Z"
"Trump dies of COVID-19",8,,"Baeboo","technillogue",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-03T06:23:30.585Z","2020-10-02T07:20:40.610Z","2021-01-22T18:20:40.000Z"
"Trump dies of COVID-19",3,,"Baeboo","technillogue",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-09T20:31:46.459Z","2020-10-02T07:20:40.610Z","2021-01-22T18:20:40.000Z"
"Trump dies of COVID-19",4,,"Baeboo","technillogue",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-06T05:20:46.318Z","2020-10-02T07:20:40.610Z","2021-01-22T18:20:40.000Z"
"Trump dies of COVID-19",5,,"PlacidPlatypus","technillogue",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-06T03:13:18.380Z","2020-10-02T07:20:40.610Z","2021-01-22T18:20:40.000Z"
"Trump dies of COVID-19",7,,"fandangos","technillogue",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-05T20:43:21.928Z","2020-10-02T07:20:40.610Z","2021-01-22T18:20:40.000Z"
"Trump dies of COVID-19",7,,"JoshuaZ","technillogue","Condition seems to have possibly improved. If he were as bad as my worst suspicions, he wouldn't have been able to insist on the driveby. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-05T10:53:20.417Z","2020-10-02T07:20:40.610Z","2021-01-22T18:20:40.000Z"
"Trump dies of COVID-19",23,,"technillogue","technillogue","https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-donald-trump-international-news-politics-ap-top-news-cac560ef169f9e5343d98a128573194a -- consider betting on http://bit.ly/trump-death-prediction-market
",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-04T17:47:17.394Z","2020-10-02T07:20:40.610Z","2021-01-22T18:20:40.000Z"
"Trump dies of COVID-19",2,,"Deepak","technillogue",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-04T17:08:27.683Z","2020-10-02T07:20:40.610Z","2021-01-22T18:20:40.000Z"
"Trump dies of COVID-19",9,,"JoshuaZ","technillogue",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-04T16:57:42.894Z","2020-10-02T07:20:40.610Z","2021-01-22T18:20:40.000Z"
"Trump dies of COVID-19",14,,"technillogue","technillogue","https://twitter.com/stevenportnoy/status/1312423908096827392?s=21",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-03T17:02:10.330Z","2020-10-02T07:20:40.610Z","2021-01-22T18:20:40.000Z"
"Trump dies of COVID-19",8,,"JoshuaZ","technillogue","Based on going to Walter Reed. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-02T23:42:53.252Z","2020-10-02T07:20:40.610Z","2021-01-22T18:20:40.000Z"
"Trump dies of COVID-19",12,,"sty.silver","technillogue",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-02T21:20:49.281Z","2020-10-02T07:20:40.610Z","2021-01-22T18:20:40.000Z"
"Trump dies of COVID-19",6,,"JoshuaZ","technillogue",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-02T19:03:58.887Z","2020-10-02T07:20:40.610Z","2021-01-22T18:20:40.000Z"
"Trump dies of COVID-19",8,,"technillogue","technillogue",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-02T07:20:40.614Z","2020-10-02T07:20:40.610Z","2021-01-22T18:20:40.000Z"
"Trump dies of COVID-19",7,,"PlacidPlatypus","technillogue",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-02T17:11:02.211Z","2020-10-02T07:20:40.610Z","2021-01-22T18:20:40.000Z"
"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.",0,,"deleteyourbrain","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T02:46:33.218Z","2013-05-29T19:37:44.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.",25,,"ShIxtan","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-30T23:44:50.000Z","2013-05-29T19:37:44.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.",35,,"Michael Dickens","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-16T06:27:34.000Z","2013-05-29T19:37:44.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.",45,,"procran","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-02T13:20:25.000Z","2013-05-29T19:37:44.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.",70,,"Tuxedage","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-02T00:44:01.000Z","2013-05-29T19:37:44.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.",48,,"JoshuaZ","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-30T20:10:24.000Z","2013-05-29T19:37:44.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.",55,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-29T19:37:44.000Z","2013-05-29T19:37:44.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.",30,,"qznc","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-15T18:24:18.021Z","2013-05-29T19:37:44.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.",20,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-18T00:41:55.655Z","2013-05-29T19:37:44.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.",30,,"pranomostro","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T22:55:57.509Z","2013-05-29T19:37:44.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.",55,,"William-Quixote","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-12T04:03:49.000Z","2013-05-29T19:37:44.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.",40,,"Jayson Virissimo","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-03T05:51:34.000Z","2013-05-29T19:37:44.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.",45,,"gwern","RandomThinker","from 1960 to 2013, +0.5% per year, it seems, so we'd expect +8.5%  or 49% in the next 17 years; expect growth to have been fastest early on, things seem to've stabilized recently as far as divorce goes, so probably less likely than not",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-02T20:29:07.000Z","2013-05-29T19:37:44.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"10 million",10,,"NickN","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T02:36:14.316Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.567Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"10 million",0,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-03T02:30:45.403Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.567Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"10 million",1,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-27T04:56:01.221Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.567Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"10 million",22,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-25T05:48:57.899Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.567Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"10 million",21,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-19T23:22:43.208Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.567Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"10 million",19,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-13T06:59:51.427Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.567Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"10 million",10,,"Bruno Parga","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-05T08:00:01.439Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.567Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"10 million",18,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-03T09:12:48.649Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.567Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"10 million",4,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-26T21:57:47.248Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.567Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"10 million",6,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-21T03:10:19.752Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.567Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"10 million",40,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-03T13:27:06.194Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.567Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"10 million",0,,"Medea","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-13T15:19:47.043Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.567Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"10 million",2,,"Bruno Parga","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-07T22:06:35.069Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.567Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"10 million",0,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-27T19:17:42.693Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.567Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"10 million",1,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-27T19:16:53.842Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.567Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"10 million",6,,"Bruno Parga","nortriptyline2","Updating based on https://cutt.ly/9rRIWJe",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-27T16:13:53.017Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.567Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"10 million",1,,"nortriptyline2","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-22T22:50:57.571Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.567Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"10 million",0,,"Bruno Parga","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-11T14:01:29.423Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.567Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"10 million",0,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T07:23:21.115Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.567Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"10 million",17,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-11T06:09:54.301Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.567Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"10 million",10,,"qznc","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-08T19:25:55.827Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.567Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"10 million",22,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-06T19:29:07.011Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.567Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"10 million",25,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-07T05:06:52.633Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.567Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"10 million",6,,"Bruno Parga","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-19T15:44:08.357Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.567Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"10 million",60,,"sty.silver","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-13T15:16:13.146Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.567Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"10 million",0,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-05T05:43:55.945Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.567Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"10 million",0,,"stepan","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-24T17:52:27.498Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.567Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"10 million",0,,"avi","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-22T22:46:04.285Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.567Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"10 million",0,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-09T04:20:50.834Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.567Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"10 million",0,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-05T00:20:34.556Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.567Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"10 million",0,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-04T09:43:01.880Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.567Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"10 million",2,,"krazemon","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-30T15:11:26.686Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.567Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"10 million",0,,"pranomostro","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-23T20:06:22.253Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.567Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"10 million",0,,"peter_hurford","nortriptyline2","2003 SARS killed 800 people. This strain is better contained and less virulent. Hard to imagine this reaching >10M.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-23T17:02:29.498Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.567Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"10 million",0,,"Bruno Parga","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-23T15:54:24.685Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.567Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"10 million",0,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-23T10:12:30.664Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.567Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")",10,,"timmartin","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-05T09:46:12.000Z","2013-02-08T22:03:56.000Z","2029-01-02T06:29:00.000Z"
"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")",50,,"themusicgod1","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T15:00:05.000Z","2013-02-08T22:03:56.000Z","2029-01-02T06:29:00.000Z"
"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")",1,,"Qiaochu","Tuxedage","I expect this to be false even with a very generous definition of ""human level."" Anyone who thinks this is reasonably likely should be donating to MIRI like crazy... ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-25T07:04:06.000Z","2013-02-08T22:03:56.000Z","2029-01-02T06:29:00.000Z"
"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")",5,,"PaulS","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-25T00:42:21.000Z","2013-02-08T22:03:56.000Z","2029-01-02T06:29:00.000Z"
"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")",98,,"Houshalter","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-15T22:05:17.000Z","2013-02-08T22:03:56.000Z","2029-01-02T06:29:00.000Z"
"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")",5,,"ashrewdmint","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-13T17:37:43.000Z","2013-02-08T22:03:56.000Z","2029-01-02T06:29:00.000Z"
"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")",55,,"Slahzer","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-10T20:16:08.000Z","2013-02-08T22:03:56.000Z","2029-01-02T06:29:00.000Z"
"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")",1,,"procran","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-10T20:15:10.000Z","2013-02-08T22:03:56.000Z","2029-01-02T06:29:00.000Z"
"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")",30,,"dusk","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-10T09:28:24.000Z","2013-02-08T22:03:56.000Z","2029-01-02T06:29:00.000Z"
"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")",8,,"Tuxedage","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-08T22:03:56.000Z","2013-02-08T22:03:56.000Z","2029-01-02T06:29:00.000Z"
"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")",23,,"Baeboo","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-13T09:14:18.428Z","2013-02-08T22:03:56.000Z","2029-01-02T06:29:00.000Z"
"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")",24,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tuxedage","Lots of recent advances in reinforcement learning, bayesian optimization, computer vision. But we still have a long way to go with transfer learning and NLP.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-02T02:28:55.000Z","2013-02-08T22:03:56.000Z","2029-01-02T06:29:00.000Z"
"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")",25,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-31T07:22:59.000Z","2013-02-08T22:03:56.000Z","2029-01-02T06:29:00.000Z"
"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")",38,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-31T07:22:29.000Z","2013-02-08T22:03:56.000Z","2029-01-02T06:29:00.000Z"
"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")",20,,"halfwit","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-10T02:27:54.000Z","2013-02-08T22:03:56.000Z","2029-01-02T06:29:00.000Z"
"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")",35,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-13T06:43:45.927Z","2013-02-08T22:03:56.000Z","2029-01-02T06:29:00.000Z"
"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.",6,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","sweeneyrod",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-12T07:37:36.743Z","2016-01-16T12:23:55.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.",5,,"two2thehead","sweeneyrod","Not within five years.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-26T11:30:56.000Z","2016-01-16T12:23:55.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.",10,,"elephantower","sweeneyrod",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-10T08:24:40.000Z","2016-01-16T12:23:55.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.",8,,"JoshuaZ","sweeneyrod",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-29T15:12:33.000Z","2016-01-16T12:23:55.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.",5,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","sweeneyrod","Even with oil prices falling, that's not going to happen.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-17T03:22:16.000Z","2016-01-16T12:23:55.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.",5,,"splorridge","sweeneyrod",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-16T14:44:36.000Z","2016-01-16T12:23:55.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.",20,,"Raahul_Kumar","sweeneyrod","Odds are higher than thought.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-16T13:02:00.000Z","2016-01-16T12:23:55.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.",5,,"sweeneyrod","sweeneyrod",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-16T12:23:55.000Z","2016-01-16T12:23:55.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.",1,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","sweeneyrod",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-15T02:59:01.150Z","2016-01-16T12:23:55.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.",10,,"ejlflop","sweeneyrod",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-16T03:24:44.000Z","2016-01-16T12:23:55.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.",45,,"themusicgod1","sweeneyrod","related http://predictionbook.com/predictions/177908",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-06T21:52:21.000Z","2016-01-16T12:23:55.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.",13,,"ChristianKl","sweeneyrod",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-29T11:36:41.000Z","2016-01-16T12:23:55.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.",15,,"lalaithion","sweeneyrod",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-21T05:40:09.000Z","2016-01-16T12:23:55.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.",10,,"Medea","sweeneyrod",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-18T09:20:51.000Z","2016-01-16T12:23:55.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.",12,,"JoshuaZ","sweeneyrod",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-16T13:55:08.000Z","2016-01-16T12:23:55.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.",1,,"NickN","sweeneyrod",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T04:52:33.177Z","2016-01-16T12:23:55.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060",20,,"JoshuaZ","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T21:19:31.000Z","2011-10-10T19:41:31.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060",50,,"Jayson Virissimo","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-11T06:18:44.000Z","2011-10-10T19:41:31.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060",33,,"Jayson Virissimo","bobpage","Updated while being less tired.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-11T09:53:50.000Z","2011-10-10T19:41:31.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060",1,,"lavalamp","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-10T16:50:22.000Z","2011-10-10T19:41:31.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060",1,,"gwern","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-15T19:30:42.000Z","2011-10-10T19:41:31.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060",1,,"VincentYu","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-14T02:11:27.000Z","2011-10-10T19:41:31.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060",8,,"themusicgod1","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T04:20:07.000Z","2011-10-10T19:41:31.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060",5,,"pranomostro","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:25:28.131Z","2011-10-10T19:41:31.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060",0,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","bobpage","Szabo and Finney. https://likeinamirror.wordpress.com/2013/12/01/satoshi-nakamoto-is-probably-nick-szabo/",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-14T06:48:43.316Z","2011-10-10T19:41:31.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060",60,,"bobpage","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T19:41:31.000Z","2011-10-10T19:41:31.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060",25,,"gwern","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T19:57:28.000Z","2011-10-10T19:41:31.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060",10,,"Robert Kosten","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-11T15:41:41.000Z","2011-10-10T19:41:31.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060",25,,"pcm","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-20T00:43:01.000Z","2011-10-10T19:41:31.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060",2,,"Grognor","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-06T19:21:28.000Z","2011-10-10T19:41:31.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060",1,,"bobpage","bobpage",".",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-04-07T00:07:18.000Z","2011-10-10T19:41:31.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060",10,,"gwern","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-09T01:21:14.000Z","2011-10-10T19:41:31.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060",2,,"JoshuaZ","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-15T20:24:29.000Z","2011-10-10T19:41:31.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060",0,,"VincentYu","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-16T01:48:14.000Z","2011-10-10T19:41:31.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060",0,,"deleteyourbrain","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-27T16:44:20.791Z","2011-10-10T19:41:31.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ",16,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ","I'm probably underestimating.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-01T13:04:58.000Z","2015-04-12T19:29:45.000Z","2065-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ",10,,"penten","JoshuaZ","(Including people who only eat lab-grown animal products)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-01T11:43:28.000Z","2015-04-12T19:29:45.000Z","2065-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","JoshuaZ","Even for 30% of the world to be vegetarian would be very impressive.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-17T09:15:00.000Z","2015-04-12T19:29:45.000Z","2065-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ",5,,"Unknowns","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-13T10:43:08.000Z","2015-04-12T19:29:45.000Z","2065-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ",1,,"PseudonymousUser","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-07T05:12:59.000Z","2015-04-12T19:29:45.000Z","2065-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ",40,,"lnfinity","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-10-27T20:38:03.000Z","2015-04-12T19:29:45.000Z","2065-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ",5,,"timujin","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-23T07:36:28.000Z","2015-04-12T19:29:45.000Z","2065-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ",1,,"NathanMcKnight","JoshuaZ","Wait, if the majority eat meat, but only lab-grown meat, that counts as vegan? I don't like that definition, and I don't think vegans will either. Regardless, cheese and wool and leather won't go away soon...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-16T15:47:48.000Z","2015-04-12T19:29:45.000Z","2065-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ",12,,"EloiseRosen","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-13T18:28:20.000Z","2015-04-12T19:29:45.000Z","2065-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ",4,,"Chri","JoshuaZ","Maybe vegetarian, but vegan?  I am biased as a European, I think it is highly unlikely, that we stop eating cheese/using other milk products. I guess it's  partially a bet against the development of good substitutes.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-13T07:28:18.000Z","2015-04-12T19:29:45.000Z","2065-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ",5,,"jesselevine","JoshuaZ","half the world is in famine. Maybe in a dream",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-13T00:04:19.000Z","2015-04-12T19:29:45.000Z","2065-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ",20,,"RoryS","JoshuaZ","It'd be amazing, but it seems unlikely. I'd be more confident in factory farms going with the rise of lab grown meat, & opprobrium to any developing countries who used a similar system. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-12T23:51:54.000Z","2015-04-12T19:29:45.000Z","2065-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ",25,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-12T19:29:45.000Z","2015-04-12T19:29:45.000Z","2065-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.",0,,"gwern","bobpage","going below 1% here because Jobs was something of a deathist; on the plus side, the new and supposedly enormously detailed and frank biography might answer this in the positive",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-21T17:58:32.000Z","2011-10-21T17:38:56.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.",1,,"TrE","bobpage","seems unlikely to me that he even knew about the possibility.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-21T18:16:01.000Z","2011-10-21T17:38:56.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.",0,,"Konkvistador","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-21T22:58:18.000Z","2011-10-21T17:38:56.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.",0,,"Metus","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-22T17:24:23.000Z","2011-10-21T17:38:56.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.",1,,"Jayson Virissimo","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-26T05:07:10.000Z","2011-10-21T17:38:56.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.",0,,"Anubhav","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-15T09:11:33.000Z","2011-10-21T17:38:56.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.",1,,"bobpage","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-21T17:38:57.000Z","2011-10-21T17:38:56.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.",1,,"JoshuaZ","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-21T20:08:42.000Z","2011-10-21T17:38:56.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.",1,,"Nic_Smith","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-22T01:41:25.000Z","2011-10-21T17:38:56.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.",1,,"Robert Kosten","bobpage","Someone who seems to have rejected traditional medicine when his life depended on effective treatment?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-25T18:01:06.000Z","2011-10-21T17:38:56.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.",0,,"stephenh","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-10T22:57:56.000Z","2011-10-21T17:38:56.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.",47,,"themusicgod1","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T04:46:24.000Z","2011-10-21T17:38:56.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.",0,,"pranomostro","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:16:52.472Z","2011-10-21T17:38:56.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams",0,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","HonoreDB",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-27T22:16:32.000Z","2015-09-23T18:44:58.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams",0,,"bobpage","HonoreDB",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-15T09:59:12.000Z","2015-09-23T18:44:58.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams",0,,"themusicgod1","HonoreDB",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-16T02:08:26.000Z","2015-09-23T18:44:58.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams",2,,"KnaveOfAllTrades","HonoreDB",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-19T17:53:10.000Z","2015-09-23T18:44:58.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams",3,,"NickN","HonoreDB",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-19T02:42:14.859Z","2015-09-23T18:44:58.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams",0,,"HonoreDB","HonoreDB",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-23T18:44:58.000Z","2015-09-23T18:44:58.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams",1,,"JoshuaZ","HonoreDB",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-23T19:21:13.000Z","2015-09-23T18:44:58.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams",0,,"btrettel","HonoreDB",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-24T00:53:53.000Z","2015-09-23T18:44:58.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams",1,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","HonoreDB",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-24T02:20:44.000Z","2015-09-23T18:44:58.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams",1,,"tstelzig","HonoreDB","Scott Adams also said about two weeks ago that there was a 98% chance that Trump will win the presidency. Just a month before that he said there was a 95% chance that Hillary would. I'm going to agree with poorly calibrated. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-30T20:29:52.000Z","2015-09-23T18:44:58.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams",0,,"PlacidPlatypus","HonoreDB","Since decimals are not allowed. Actual estimate on the order of .01%",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-06T18:45:51.000Z","2015-09-23T18:44:58.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams",0,,"EloiseRosen","HonoreDB",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-06T22:35:40.000Z","2015-09-23T18:44:58.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams",0,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","HonoreDB",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-01T03:44:09.000Z","2015-09-23T18:44:58.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams",0,,"JoshuaZ","HonoreDB",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-01T17:09:30.000Z","2015-09-23T18:44:58.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams",1,,"qznc","HonoreDB",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-11T16:50:56.000Z","2015-09-23T18:44:58.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?",95,,"lsusr","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T21:27:37.687Z","2020-11-30T19:53:19.757Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?",95,,"Michael H","Michael H","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T19:53:19.769Z","2020-11-30T19:53:19.757Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?",19,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:14:28.180Z","2020-11-30T19:53:19.757Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?",90,,"VermillionStuka","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T23:15:44.474Z","2020-11-30T19:53:19.757Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?",54,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:17:38.985Z","2020-11-30T19:53:19.757Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?",56,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:17:37.322Z","2020-11-30T19:53:19.757Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?",70,,"adamShimi","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:00:26.258Z","2020-11-30T19:53:19.757Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?",99,,"Pialgo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:09:32.406Z","2020-11-30T19:53:19.757Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?",99,,"AnthonyC","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:49:23.336Z","2020-11-30T19:53:19.757Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?",99,,"Yousif","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T22:29:11.151Z","2020-11-30T19:53:19.757Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?",5,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:11:09.646Z","2020-11-30T19:53:19.757Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?",23,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:14:24.575Z","2020-11-30T19:53:19.757Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?",99,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:35:49.695Z","2020-11-30T19:53:19.757Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?",97,,"TurnTrout","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:33:12.973Z","2020-11-30T19:53:19.757Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?",50,,"Emiya","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:58:20.630Z","2020-11-30T19:53:19.757Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",36,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:17:07.049Z","2020-11-30T19:52:59.576Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",40,,"TurnTrout","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:32:54.246Z","2020-11-30T19:52:59.576Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",25,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:35:21.734Z","2020-11-30T19:52:59.576Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",50,,"Michael H","Michael H","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T19:52:59.584Z","2020-11-30T19:52:59.576Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",30,,"Emiya","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:53:02.550Z","2020-11-30T19:52:59.576Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",45,,"Pialgo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:09:20.322Z","2020-11-30T19:52:59.576Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",55,,"adamShimi","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:00:08.804Z","2020-11-30T19:52:59.576Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",65,,"adamShimi","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:00:03.678Z","2020-11-30T19:52:59.576Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",10,,"AnthonyC","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:49:05.010Z","2020-11-30T19:52:59.576Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",60,,"Yousif","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T22:28:16.348Z","2020-11-30T19:52:59.576Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",53,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:03:03.453Z","2020-11-30T19:52:59.576Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",52,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:03:05.130Z","2020-11-30T19:52:59.576Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",80,,"avturchin","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T08:38:52.939Z","2020-11-30T19:52:59.576Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",44,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:03:12.713Z","2020-11-30T19:52:59.576Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",38,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:03:24.834Z","2020-11-30T19:52:59.576Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",54,,"TurnTrout","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:32:48.237Z","2020-11-30T19:52:59.576Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",26,,"CellBioGuy","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T07:49:29.262Z","2020-11-30T19:52:59.576Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",25,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:08:52.232Z","2020-11-30T19:52:59.576Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",31,,"TurnTrout","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:32:56.004Z","2020-11-30T19:52:59.576Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.",60,,"ChristianKl","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-12T06:54:20.000Z","2016-01-06T20:31:29.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.",80,,"two2thehead","PipFoweraker","Probably",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-15T00:11:14.000Z","2016-01-06T20:31:29.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.",35,,"PipFoweraker","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-06T20:31:29.000Z","2016-01-06T20:31:29.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.",40,,"Medea","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-08T19:17:01.000Z","2016-01-06T20:31:29.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.",70,,"Osuniev","PipFoweraker","conditional on someone actually going there",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-21T01:13:44.000Z","2016-01-06T20:31:29.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.",40,,"timujin","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-07T16:35:10.000Z","2016-01-06T20:31:29.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.",42,,"JoshuaZ","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-07T17:11:25.000Z","2016-01-06T20:31:29.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.",60,,"lalaithion","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-14T06:37:28.000Z","2016-01-06T20:31:29.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-08T08:03:05.000Z","2016-01-06T20:31:29.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.",45,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-10T03:47:24.000Z","2016-01-06T20:31:29.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.",20,,"themusicgod1","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-15T01:46:17.000Z","2016-01-06T20:31:29.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.",55,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-11T04:30:13.000Z","2016-01-06T20:31:29.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.",60,,"mortehu","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-11T05:39:45.000Z","2016-01-06T20:31:29.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",85,,"pranomostro","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:31:59.867Z","2012-10-01T13:57:09.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",90,,"NathanMcKnight","Pablo","Aren't there already HIV vaccines in trial? ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T16:03:11.000Z","2012-10-01T13:57:09.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",90,,"gwern","Pablo","hard to see it remaining unsolved especially with partially successful vaccines to build on",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T19:28:47.000Z","2012-10-01T13:57:09.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",90,,"Porejide","Pablo","operationalizing ""successful"" as decreasing odds of having > 10^3 HIV RNA molecules per mL plasma given contraction at mean infection titers by > 100, and this is or the equivalent shown published studies",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-04T23:52:56.000Z","2012-10-01T13:57:09.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",35,,"RandomThinker","Pablo","I think progress in these areas are slower than you like.  Plus there's good money to be made in treatment.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-05T03:27:08.000Z","2012-10-01T13:57:09.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",70,,"NathanMcKnight","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-05T14:08:14.000Z","2012-10-01T13:57:09.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",80,,"Qiaochu","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-12-06T09:37:38.000Z","2012-10-01T13:57:09.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",85,,"Baeboo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T02:27:52.812Z","2012-10-01T13:57:09.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",80,,"Pablo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T13:57:09.000Z","2012-10-01T13:57:09.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",50,,"btrettel","Pablo","Related: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/127439",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-11T20:01:10.000Z","2012-10-01T13:57:09.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",60,,"chemotaxis101","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-13T17:44:29.000Z","2012-10-01T13:57:09.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",45,,"JoshuaZ","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-11T21:14:00.000Z","2012-10-01T13:57:09.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",46,,"themusicgod1","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:33:07.000Z","2012-10-01T13:57:09.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?",34,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:16:51.162Z","2020-11-30T19:52:39.856Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?",74,,"avturchin","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T08:38:48.573Z","2020-11-30T19:52:39.856Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?",60,,"Emiya","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:52:51.178Z","2020-11-30T19:52:39.856Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?",75,,"Michael H","Michael H","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T19:52:39.862Z","2020-11-30T19:52:39.856Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?",65,,"Pialgo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:09:12.166Z","2020-11-30T19:52:39.856Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?",20,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:35:12.692Z","2020-11-30T19:52:39.856Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?",70,,"adamShimi","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:59:56.395Z","2020-11-30T19:52:39.856Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?",75,,"AnthonyC","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:48:57.249Z","2020-11-30T19:52:39.856Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?",1,,"Yousif","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T22:27:32.803Z","2020-11-30T19:52:39.856Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?",72,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:00:11.362Z","2020-11-30T19:52:39.856Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?",45,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:00:17.556Z","2020-11-30T19:52:39.856Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?",47,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:00:42.420Z","2020-11-30T19:52:39.856Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?",45,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:00:56.321Z","2020-11-30T19:52:39.856Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?",50,,"CellBioGuy","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T07:49:24.262Z","2020-11-30T19:52:39.856Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?",54,,"TurnTrout","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:32:35.916Z","2020-11-30T19:52:39.856Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.",45,,"Osuniev","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-03T18:36:11.000Z","2014-12-03T05:42:41.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.",55,,"JoshuaZ","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-04T20:31:57.000Z","2014-12-03T05:42:41.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.",95,,"Michael Dickens","Mati Roy","Right now Gangnam Style has 2 billion views. I remember just a few years ago when a video broke 100 million views for the first time. I fully expect YouTube to continue growing, so we should hit 7+ billion within the next few years.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-05T06:15:56.000Z","2014-12-03T05:42:41.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.",40,,"harper","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-07T15:04:08.000Z","2014-12-03T05:42:41.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.",68,,"holycow81","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-08T18:55:29.000Z","2014-12-03T05:42:41.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.",95,,"mad","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-16T03:24:15.000Z","2014-12-03T05:42:41.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.",65,,"Medea","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-15T16:13:30.000Z","2014-12-03T05:42:41.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.",45,,"JoshuaZ","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-15T17:07:37.000Z","2014-12-03T05:42:41.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.",35,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Mati Roy","Assuming language barriers kinda persist, most viewers of a given video would be from a few countries, say < 40% of population. In order for that view count to above the global population, the average viewer would need to watch it > 2.5 times.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-02T03:59:25.000Z","2014-12-03T05:42:41.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.",56,,"themusicgod1","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-01T23:26:49.000Z","2014-12-03T05:42:41.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.",70,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-03T05:42:41.000Z","2014-12-03T05:42:41.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.",100,,"reallyyesreally","Mati Roy","The dead walk. And they want to see your gangnam style.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-03T05:45:45.000Z","2014-12-03T05:42:41.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.",50,,"sweeneyrod","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-03T16:44:46.000Z","2014-12-03T05:42:41.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020",5,,"sjy","sjy","Actually looking at the CFR for this age group has caused me to reconsider.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-26T11:19:20.381Z","2020-03-22T12:26:36.931Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020",4,,"daveisright","sjy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-27T03:52:38.158Z","2020-03-22T12:26:36.931Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020",2,,"qznc","sjy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-27T16:23:13.974Z","2020-03-22T12:26:36.931Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020",1,,"Baeboo","sjy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-27T05:31:26.696Z","2020-03-22T12:26:36.931Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020",1,,"stepan","sjy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-29T13:49:56.760Z","2020-03-22T12:26:36.931Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020",12,,"Paul.David.Carr","sjy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-01T02:39:55.613Z","2020-03-22T12:26:36.931Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020",2,,"abelriboulot","sjy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-04T14:10:19.995Z","2020-03-22T12:26:36.931Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020",0,,"Baeboo","sjy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T07:09:46.870Z","2020-03-22T12:26:36.931Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020",1,,"NickN","sjy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T02:37:05.594Z","2020-03-22T12:26:36.931Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020",7,,"unexpectedEOF","sjy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-19T04:19:31.501Z","2020-03-22T12:26:36.931Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020",5,,"pranomostro","sjy","40%*15% (estimate of contracting disease & CFR for people in the age group)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-23T15:19:00.344Z","2020-03-22T12:26:36.931Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020",5,,"sty.silver","sjy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-22T16:55:48.692Z","2020-03-22T12:26:36.931Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020",20,,"sjy","sjy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-22T12:26:36.935Z","2020-03-22T12:26:36.931Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020",0,,"MultiplyByZer0","sjy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T05:12:12.365Z","2020-03-22T12:26:36.931Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.",55,,"JoshuaZ","ChristianKl","Revising estimate downward. Too few people that old now. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-10T13:44:10.000Z","2009-10-17T11:21:00.000Z","2060-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.",0,,"deleteyourbrain","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:14:51.094Z","2009-10-17T11:21:00.000Z","2060-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.",70,,"JoshuaZ","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-24T18:02:39.000Z","2009-10-17T11:21:00.000Z","2060-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.",73,,"Baeboo","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T01:21:12.245Z","2009-10-17T11:21:00.000Z","2060-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.",25,,"Arenamontanus","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-19T13:08:52.000Z","2009-10-17T11:21:00.000Z","2060-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.",50,,"ChristianKl","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-17T11:21:01.000Z","2009-10-17T11:21:00.000Z","2060-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.",80,,"Larks","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-17T20:30:21.000Z","2009-10-17T11:21:00.000Z","2060-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.",2,,"anonym","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-17T21:41:47.000Z","2009-10-17T11:21:00.000Z","2060-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.",2,,"Jack","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-18T09:11:13.000Z","2009-10-17T11:21:00.000Z","2060-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.",70,,"Baeboo","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T01:23:29.807Z","2009-10-17T11:21:00.000Z","2060-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.",75,,"pranomostro","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T23:17:05.000Z","2009-10-17T11:21:00.000Z","2060-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.",3,,"Robin Z.","ChristianKl","This requires someone 91 or older today to live to 2060. Of 8 million persons 90-94 in 2004 only 2.4 million remain, and of 1.9 million 95+ only 0.34 remain.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-17T20:58:59.000Z","2009-10-17T11:21:00.000Z","2060-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.",80,,"gwern","ChristianKl","This only requires a 20 year improvement on the state of the art (Jeanne Calment, age 122), and gives medical science 50 years to make that improvement.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-29T06:11:57.000Z","2009-10-17T11:21:00.000Z","2060-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.",60,,"Konkvistador","ChristianKl","@gwern: Why do you think Jean Clements long life was primarily due to improvments in the state of the art? ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-21T20:02:11.000Z","2009-10-17T11:21:00.000Z","2060-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030",55,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-29T21:37:28.000Z","2015-07-29T19:30:02.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030",45,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-29T19:30:02.000Z","2015-07-29T19:30:02.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030",25,,"sflicht","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-25T19:21:37.000Z","2015-07-29T19:30:02.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030",4,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-01T05:36:28.000Z","2015-07-29T19:30:02.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030",5,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-16T01:33:54.000Z","2015-07-29T19:30:02.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030",8,,"Tuxedage","InquilineKea","Ya'll motherfuckers are ridiculously overconfident",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-08T16:26:56.000Z","2015-07-29T19:30:02.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","InquilineKea","Pyongyang can't last that long. I expect the regime to collapse in 6-7 years.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-08T12:51:45.000Z","2015-07-29T19:30:02.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030",3,,"silacoid","InquilineKea","The situation is too comfortable for the powers surrounding them. Neither China nor the US wants this. Also, 15 years are not many.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-07T14:36:06.000Z","2015-07-29T19:30:02.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030",5,,"espore","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-02T21:01:32.000Z","2015-07-29T19:30:02.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030",30,,"David","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-01T10:14:47.000Z","2015-07-29T19:30:02.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030",11,,"supinf","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-31T02:13:00.000Z","2015-07-29T19:30:02.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030",10,,"ArturoGoosnargh","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-30T09:44:22.000Z","2015-07-29T19:30:02.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030",2,,"btrettel","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-21T19:13:56.000Z","2015-07-29T19:30:02.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030",6,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-20T05:59:50.000Z","2015-07-29T19:30:02.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030",8,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea","China will probably keep NK dependent on it",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-13T22:56:36.000Z","2015-07-29T19:30:02.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030",7,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-13T22:54:59.000Z","2015-07-29T19:30:02.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.",4,,"Baeboo","PatrickAchtelik",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-27T16:49:59.888Z","2010-11-24T21:46:53.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.",10,,"amadeu","PatrickAchtelik",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-07T19:09:07.629Z","2010-11-24T21:46:53.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.",10,,"gimpf","PatrickAchtelik","If this means EU-wide uniform taxing (to some degree), central army, single passport, single constitution, single penal law, then no.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-12-12T18:03:45.000Z","2010-11-24T21:46:53.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.",11,,"Baeboo","PatrickAchtelik",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T03:24:39.977Z","2010-11-24T21:46:53.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.",15,,"pranomostro","PatrickAchtelik",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:28:43.949Z","2010-11-24T21:46:53.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.",40,,"seifip","PatrickAchtelik",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-14T09:50:48.000Z","2010-11-24T21:46:53.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.",25,,"Nic_Smith","PatrickAchtelik",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-26T23:29:38.000Z","2010-11-24T21:46:53.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.",10,,"kallman","PatrickAchtelik","Too much water under the bridge. As willing as some seem to be to forget the past, many will never forgive attrocities of a millenium ago.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-26T08:01:42.000Z","2010-11-24T21:46:53.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.",20,,"gwern","PatrickAchtelik","This sounds way vague & unjudgeable. what is a superstate? by many standards, the EU *is* a state",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-24T22:53:47.000Z","2010-11-24T21:46:53.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.",80,,"PatrickAchtelik","PatrickAchtelik",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-24T21:46:53.000Z","2010-11-24T21:46:53.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.",5,,"wizzwizz4","PatrickAchtelik","There are blockers. And those aren't insurmountable hurdles, but I don't think anybody cares to surmount them.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-27T10:47:06.134Z","2010-11-24T21:46:53.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.",4,,"JoshuaZ","PatrickAchtelik",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-27T12:22:44.121Z","2010-11-24T21:46:53.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.",3,,"NickN","PatrickAchtelik","Do all current members have to unite? Prediction was made before Brexit, would UK have to be part of that superstate?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T06:57:38.056Z","2010-11-24T21:46:53.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.",8,,"Baeboo","PatrickAchtelik",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-27T07:36:55.438Z","2010-11-24T21:46:53.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky",6,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-08T22:10:53.000Z","2011-06-29T22:38:05.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky",1,,"Konkvistador","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-21T21:49:49.000Z","2011-06-29T22:38:05.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky",15,,"Porejide","gwern","If we take de Grey as reference class, he is actually somewhat of a pessimist... http://www.life-exchange.com/news/articles/dr._aubrey_de_grey_and_dr._s._jay_olshansky_debate_radical_human_lifespan_e/",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-04T03:51:51.000Z","2011-06-29T22:38:05.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky",5,,"Emanuel Rylke","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-29T15:43:09.000Z","2011-06-29T22:38:05.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky",20,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-13T14:20:57.000Z","2011-06-29T22:38:05.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky",12,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-08T21:09:20.000Z","2011-06-29T22:38:05.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky",5,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:54:33.028Z","2011-06-29T22:38:05.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky",5,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T01:35:03.805Z","2011-06-29T22:38:05.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky",7,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:01:57.249Z","2011-06-29T22:38:05.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky",1,,"bobpage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-21T04:09:00.000Z","2011-06-29T22:38:05.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky",10,,"gimpf","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-14T07:31:03.000Z","2011-06-29T22:38:05.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky",5,,"faul_sname","gwern","You're quite the pessimist.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-01T08:38:23.000Z","2011-06-29T22:38:05.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky",5,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-06-30T00:18:58.000Z","2011-06-29T22:38:05.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-06-29T22:38:06.000Z","2011-06-29T22:38:05.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.",40,,"amadeu","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-07T20:43:29.140Z","2012-12-31T18:34:55.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.",80,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T02:45:49.402Z","2012-12-31T18:34:55.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.",85,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-19T10:11:01.000Z","2012-12-31T18:34:55.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.",50,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-08T04:17:44.000Z","2012-12-31T18:34:55.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.",51,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-05T02:27:31.000Z","2012-12-31T18:34:55.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.",90,,"smijer","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-12-31T21:44:46.000Z","2012-12-31T18:34:55.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.",45,,"Tuxedage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-12-31T18:36:07.000Z","2012-12-31T18:34:55.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.",40,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-12-31T18:34:55.000Z","2012-12-31T18:34:55.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.",90,,"Qiaochu","gwern","I'm curious how other people are generating their numbers. I considered using a Poisson distribution but now I'm just trying to vaguely guess the timing of a cultural shift important enough that it needs to be Constitutionalized. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-01T07:19:52.000Z","2012-12-31T18:34:55.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.",40,,"HonoreDB","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-04T02:26:04.000Z","2012-12-31T18:34:55.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.",33,,"Yvain","gwern","12 amendments in the 20th century suggest we shouldn't be too confident in no new ones in 20 years even if we can't think of a good reason to make one.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-13T04:17:06.000Z","2012-12-31T18:34:55.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.",86,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T14:42:58.000Z","2012-12-31T18:34:55.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.",49,,"pepe_prime","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T11:30:29.394Z","2021-01-09T05:50:40.666Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.",80,,"Dagon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T20:33:31.496Z","2021-01-09T05:50:40.666Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.",75,,"deluks917","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:50:13.029Z","2021-01-09T05:50:40.666Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.",25,,"jefftk","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T20:53:47.980Z","2021-01-09T05:50:40.666Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.",64,,"Benjamin Rachbach","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:23:11.774Z","2021-01-09T05:50:40.666Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.",53,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T19:15:37.945Z","2021-01-09T05:50:40.666Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.",61,,"D0TheMath","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T17:12:45.145Z","2021-01-09T05:50:40.666Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.",50,,"ejacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T00:00:39.631Z","2021-01-09T05:50:40.666Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.",70,,"ChristianKl","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T12:22:19.973Z","2021-01-09T05:50:40.666Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.",70,,"NunoSempere","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:35:40.738Z","2021-01-09T05:50:40.666Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.",40,,"Geoffrey Wood","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:33:37.319Z","2021-01-09T05:50:40.666Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.",67,,"Zvi","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T21:57:22.139Z","2021-01-09T05:50:40.666Z","2030-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.",92,,"deluks917","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:47:52.032Z","2021-01-09T06:39:02.260Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.",35,,"philh","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T19:24:02.062Z","2021-01-09T06:39:02.260Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.",70,,"philh","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T19:55:49.008Z","2021-01-09T06:39:02.260Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.",85,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T19:59:24.403Z","2021-01-09T06:39:02.260Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.",15,,"Benjamin Rachbach","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:26:15.237Z","2021-01-09T06:39:02.260Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.",94,,"pepe_prime","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T02:35:45.408Z","2021-01-09T06:39:02.260Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.",95,,"NunoSempere","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:37:47.726Z","2021-01-09T06:39:02.260Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.",85,,"Dagon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T20:35:49.061Z","2021-01-09T06:39:02.260Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.",80,,"ejacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T00:02:34.655Z","2021-01-09T06:39:02.260Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.",93,,"Zvi","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T21:59:43.478Z","2021-01-09T06:39:02.260Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.",90,,"deluks917","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:46:41.750Z","2021-01-09T06:39:02.260Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.",90,,"ejacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T00:02:49.055Z","2021-01-09T06:39:02.260Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.",75,,"Oskar Mathiasen","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T12:09:01.728Z","2021-01-09T06:39:02.260Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.",90,,"Geoffrey Wood","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:37:52.021Z","2021-01-09T06:39:02.260Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.",84,,"Polytopos","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T00:28:43.282Z","2021-01-09T06:39:02.260Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.",89,,"Polytopos","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T00:28:45.641Z","2021-01-09T06:39:02.260Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.",92,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T19:25:30.169Z","2021-01-09T06:39:02.260Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft",5,,"ekr","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-01T23:10:18.000Z","2017-07-27T11:31:43.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft",0,,"Itja","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-17T10:59:51.000Z","2017-07-27T11:31:43.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft",6,,"Baeboo","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-03T15:36:02.000Z","2017-07-27T11:31:43.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft",15,,"Serge","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-02T11:59:53.000Z","2017-07-27T11:31:43.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft",10,,"iCrown","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-07-28T23:08:46.000Z","2017-07-27T11:31:43.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft",51,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-07-27T11:31:43.000Z","2017-07-27T11:31:43.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft",0,,"PseudonymousUser","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-23T02:08:35.000Z","2017-07-27T11:31:43.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft",5,,"Baeboo","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-01-12T02:34:11.000Z","2017-07-27T11:31:43.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft",5,,"Flenser","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-09T00:05:01.000Z","2017-07-27T11:31:43.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft",0,,"MultiplyByZer0","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-09T03:48:40.000Z","2017-07-27T11:31:43.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft",0,,"Afforess","themusicgod1","This would raise too many antitrust concerns. Will never happen.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-07T18:25:08.000Z","2017-07-27T11:31:43.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft",3,,"Temeraire","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-02T02:42:44.000Z","2017-07-27T11:31:43.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft",6,,"Michael Dickens","themusicgod1","A merger seems not super unlikely, a takeover seems quite unlikely. My prediction is conditional on mergers not counting.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-01T17:48:08.000Z","2017-07-27T11:31:43.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft",2,,"Baeboo","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T05:04:21.522Z","2017-07-27T11:31:43.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ",0,,"nshepperd","drethelin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-14T23:21:59.000Z","2012-12-23T20:11:32.000Z","2062-12-23T21:02:00.000Z"
"We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ",10,,"darkdaemon","drethelin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-12-31T07:53:21.000Z","2012-12-23T20:11:32.000Z","2062-12-23T21:02:00.000Z"
"We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ",15,,"Random8042","drethelin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-12-29T20:41:46.000Z","2012-12-23T20:11:32.000Z","2062-12-23T21:02:00.000Z"
"We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ",65,,"Tuxedage","drethelin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-12-28T00:12:18.000Z","2012-12-23T20:11:32.000Z","2062-12-23T21:02:00.000Z"
"We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ",5,,"JoshuaZ","drethelin","And second ChristianKI's request. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-12-27T02:03:15.000Z","2012-12-23T20:11:32.000Z","2062-12-23T21:02:00.000Z"
"We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ",20,,"ChristianKl","drethelin","Could you edited the word intelligent into the question?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-12-25T02:41:12.000Z","2012-12-23T20:11:32.000Z","2062-12-23T21:02:00.000Z"
"We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ",2,,"Cy Fleming","drethelin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-15T07:44:36.000Z","2012-12-23T20:11:32.000Z","2062-12-23T21:02:00.000Z"
"We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ",80,,"NathanMcKnight","drethelin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-05T19:56:14.000Z","2012-12-23T20:11:32.000Z","2062-12-23T21:02:00.000Z"
"We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ",4,,"ewang","drethelin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-05T00:16:44.000Z","2012-12-23T20:11:32.000Z","2062-12-23T21:02:00.000Z"
"We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ",85,,"drethelin","drethelin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-12-23T20:11:32.000Z","2012-12-23T20:11:32.000Z","2062-12-23T21:02:00.000Z"
"We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ",2,,"Emanuel Rylke","drethelin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-12-27T09:54:14.000Z","2012-12-23T20:11:32.000Z","2062-12-23T21:02:00.000Z"
"We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ",4,,"themusicgod1","drethelin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T14:39:16.000Z","2012-12-23T20:11:32.000Z","2062-12-23T21:02:00.000Z"
"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”",0,,"Pablo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-02T03:06:28.000Z","2010-08-02T06:33:04.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”",2,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T14:09:55.851Z","2010-08-02T06:33:04.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”",35,,"themusicgod1","gwern","moon server hosting+satoshi dice puts the payload size of putting it up there small, if expensive.  Mostly just communication issues with the interstellar internet prohibiting this.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:26:44.000Z","2010-08-02T06:33:04.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”",1,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-17T05:29:11.000Z","2010-08-02T06:33:04.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”",1,,"EloiseRosen","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-08T17:28:50.000Z","2010-08-02T06:33:04.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”",0,,"Ken","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-17T20:47:18.000Z","2010-08-02T06:33:04.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”",0,,"bobpage","gwern","Even in a really nice post-singularity world where people somehow still like casinos, the moon does not seem like a better location than a space hotel",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-21T20:17:09.000Z","2010-08-02T06:33:04.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”",0,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-24T17:59:59.000Z","2010-08-02T06:33:04.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”",0,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T15:04:27.661Z","2010-08-02T06:33:04.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”",2,,"NathanMcKnight","gwern","Too soon. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-07T21:39:45.000Z","2010-08-02T06:33:04.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”",5,,"Michael Dickens","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-16T06:38:14.000Z","2010-08-02T06:33:04.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”",0,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-02T06:33:04.000Z","2010-08-02T06:33:04.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",20,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:35:43.908Z","2020-11-30T18:47:22.196Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",17,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:17:49.288Z","2020-11-30T18:47:22.196Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",15,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:18:16.027Z","2020-11-30T18:47:22.196Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",26,,"CellBioGuy","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T07:49:35.450Z","2020-11-30T18:47:22.196Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",17,,"CellBioGuy","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T07:49:37.171Z","2020-11-30T18:47:22.196Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",20,,"adamShimi","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:00:14.701Z","2020-11-30T18:47:22.196Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",10,,"Michael H","Michael H","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T18:47:22.204Z","2020-11-30T18:47:22.196Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",45,,"Pialgo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:09:26.218Z","2020-11-30T18:47:22.196Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",1,,"CellBioGuy","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T07:49:33.952Z","2020-11-30T18:47:22.196Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",90,,"AnthonyC","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:49:13.914Z","2020-11-30T18:47:22.196Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",90,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:42:01.844Z","2020-11-30T18:47:22.196Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",91,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:42:00.328Z","2020-11-30T18:47:22.196Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",6,,"CellBioGuy","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T07:49:34.496Z","2020-11-30T18:47:22.196Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",67,,"Yousif","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T22:28:30.366Z","2020-11-30T18:47:22.196Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",90,,"Yousif","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T22:28:53.662Z","2020-11-30T18:47:22.196Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",93,,"avturchin","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T08:38:57.130Z","2020-11-30T18:47:22.196Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",70,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:04:13.197Z","2020-11-30T18:47:22.196Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",57,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:05:35.178Z","2020-11-30T18:47:22.196Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",43,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:05:36.634Z","2020-11-30T18:47:22.196Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",29,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:05:37.130Z","2020-11-30T18:47:22.196Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",17,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:05:37.886Z","2020-11-30T18:47:22.196Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",69,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:05:38.939Z","2020-11-30T18:47:22.196Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",20,,"Emiya","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:53:21.071Z","2020-11-30T18:47:22.196Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",95,,"TurnTrout","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:33:04.203Z","2020-11-30T18:47:22.196Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",25,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:17:15.597Z","2020-11-30T18:47:22.196Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",19,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:17:24.565Z","2020-11-30T18:47:22.196Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",28,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:10:04.945Z","2020-11-30T18:47:22.196Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",20,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:10:08.758Z","2020-11-30T18:47:22.196Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",94,,"TurnTrout","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:33:03.573Z","2020-11-30T18:47:22.196Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",48,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:10:58.445Z","2020-11-30T18:47:22.196Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",96,,"TurnTrout","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:33:02.582Z","2020-11-30T18:47:22.196Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",98,,"TurnTrout","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:33:02.259Z","2020-11-30T18:47:22.196Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",99,,"TurnTrout","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:33:01.358Z","2020-11-30T18:47:22.196Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil",0,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-12T00:56:58.220Z","2010-10-26T02:35:23.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil",0,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-12T01:07:21.495Z","2010-10-26T02:35:23.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil",1,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-26T02:35:27.000Z","2010-10-26T02:35:23.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil",2,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-14T04:31:11.000Z","2010-10-26T02:35:23.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil",1,,"Aticper","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-24T06:26:15.000Z","2010-10-26T02:35:23.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil",0,,"halfwit","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-10T02:45:20.000Z","2010-10-26T02:35:23.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil",0,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-21T11:55:17.000Z","2010-10-26T02:35:23.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil",1,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:53:22.683Z","2010-10-26T02:35:23.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil",2,,"Pablo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T05:31:32.000Z","2010-10-26T02:35:23.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil",10,,"TheScholar","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-29T21:08:41.000Z","2010-10-26T02:35:23.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil",20,,"bobpage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-07T01:49:41.000Z","2010-10-26T02:35:23.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil",1,,"saturn","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-28T04:13:19.000Z","2010-10-26T02:35:23.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil",3,,"RandomThinker","gwern","Ray Kurzweil is easy points for being wrong.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-24T09:51:59.000Z","2010-10-26T02:35:23.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil",0,,"two2thehead","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-21T03:12:25.000Z","2010-10-26T02:35:23.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil",0,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-09T13:48:02.178Z","2010-10-26T02:35:23.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"100 million",0,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-03T02:30:53.432Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.582Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"100 million",2,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-11T06:12:26.600Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.582Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"100 million",3,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-25T05:49:28.838Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.582Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"100 million",0,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-27T19:17:28.390Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.582Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"100 million",0,,"nortriptyline2","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-22T22:50:57.585Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.582Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"100 million",0,,"Bruno Parga","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-11T14:01:52.043Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.582Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"100 million",0,,"NickN","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T06:36:11.559Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.582Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"100 million",0,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-27T04:57:33.487Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.582Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"100 million",3,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-06T19:28:57.009Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.582Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"100 million",4,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-07T05:08:03.586Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.582Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"100 million",3,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-03T13:26:21.235Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.582Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"100 million",0,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-27T02:12:02.986Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.582Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"100 million",1,,"sty.silver","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-26T21:43:50.723Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.582Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"100 million",0,,"avi","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-22T22:45:17.146Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.582Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"100 million",0,,"Medea","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-13T15:20:00.377Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.582Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"100 million",0,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-05T00:20:40.851Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.582Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"100 million",0,,"pranomostro","nortriptyline2","Consider baserates.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-23T20:06:29.385Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.582Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"100 million",0,,"peter_hurford","nortriptyline2","2003 SARS killed 800 people. This strain is better contained and less virulent. Hard to imagine this reaching >100M.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-23T17:02:46.628Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.582Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"100 million",0,,"Bruno Parga","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-23T15:54:39.227Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.582Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"100 million",0,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-23T10:13:05.634Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.582Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"100 million",3,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-19T23:23:40.028Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.582Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"100 million",3,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-13T07:01:14.255Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.582Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"100 million",0,,"credunkist","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-03T16:28:29.646Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.582Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"100 million",1,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-03T09:17:09.392Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.582Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"100 million",0,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-26T21:59:50.675Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.582Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"100 million",0,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-21T03:10:59.763Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.582Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"100 million",0,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-05T05:44:09.913Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.582Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"100 million",0,,"stepan","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-24T17:53:37.080Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.582Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"100 million",0,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-04T09:50:53.949Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.582Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.",1,,"Anubhav","Jennifer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-12T14:07:02.000Z","2009-10-19T15:50:09.000Z","2025-01-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.",47,,"themusicgod1","Jennifer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T22:56:11.000Z","2009-10-19T15:50:09.000Z","2025-01-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.",2,,"Baeboo","Jennifer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-26T03:55:48.000Z","2009-10-19T15:50:09.000Z","2025-01-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.",1,,"Jennifer","Jennifer","My original estimate was not 0%, but was sufficiently close to be rounded by the website's software.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-19T15:56:59.000Z","2009-10-19T15:50:09.000Z","2025-01-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.",4,,"faws","Jennifer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-22T17:54:39.000Z","2009-10-19T15:50:09.000Z","2025-01-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.",1,,"gwern","Jennifer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-19T21:45:05.000Z","2009-10-19T15:50:09.000Z","2025-01-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.",1,,"JoshuaZ","Jennifer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-24T17:54:56.000Z","2009-10-19T15:50:09.000Z","2025-01-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.",10,,"pranomostro","Jennifer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-15T17:41:25.192Z","2009-10-19T15:50:09.000Z","2025-01-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.",20,,"pranomostro","Jennifer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T23:27:02.000Z","2009-10-19T15:50:09.000Z","2025-01-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.",1,,"Pavitra","Jennifer","If the AP blocks some LHC modes, it will likely look like a low-level force rather than a high-level coincidence. That's how science has worked so far.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-23T03:32:54.000Z","2009-10-19T15:50:09.000Z","2025-01-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.",1,,"Baeboo","Jennifer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T02:22:27.488Z","2009-10-19T15:50:09.000Z","2025-01-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.",25,,"Arenamontanus","Jennifer","Getting an AP paper into a good journal is *relatively* easy; it is the lack of the modes that is the unlikely thing.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-20T14:36:34.000Z","2009-10-19T15:50:09.000Z","2025-01-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.",2,,"anonym","Jennifer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-20T05:43:05.000Z","2009-10-19T15:50:09.000Z","2025-01-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.",99,,"freyley","Jennifer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-20T04:47:16.000Z","2009-10-19T15:50:09.000Z","2025-01-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.",0,,"Jennifer","Jennifer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-19T15:50:09.000Z","2009-10-19T15:50:09.000Z","2025-01-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon",0,,"NickN","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T08:28:45.406Z","2016-04-18T20:15:48.000Z","2025-06-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon",70,,"Paul.David.Carr","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-18T20:15:48.000Z","2016-04-18T20:15:48.000Z","2025-06-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon",5,,"sflicht","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-18T20:50:08.000Z","2016-04-18T20:15:48.000Z","2025-06-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon",4,,"splorridge","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-19T08:18:46.000Z","2016-04-18T20:15:48.000Z","2025-06-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon",40,,"two2thehead","Paul.David.Carr","Bit vague. Does it refer to one or more persons being on the moon for 365 days continuous. Or 1 person a month and just getting replaced with a new one every month for 12 months? Not dying. Just getting tagged out like wrestlers.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-20T04:49:13.000Z","2016-04-18T20:15:48.000Z","2025-06-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon",42,,"themusicgod1","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-18T20:38:18.000Z","2016-04-18T20:15:48.000Z","2025-06-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon",10,,"sflicht","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-18T20:50:03.000Z","2016-04-18T20:15:48.000Z","2025-06-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon",10,,"sflicht","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-18T20:50:23.000Z","2016-04-18T20:15:48.000Z","2025-06-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon",3,,"JoshuaZ","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-18T21:44:35.000Z","2016-04-18T20:15:48.000Z","2025-06-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon",5,,"brslvrsl","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-25T12:47:04.000Z","2016-04-18T20:15:48.000Z","2025-06-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon",15,,"PipFoweraker","Paul.David.Carr","Interpreting as substitutions-OK - looking for continuous inhabitation like Antarctic research stations - min.staff = 1.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-16T01:32:05.000Z","2016-04-18T20:15:48.000Z","2025-06-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon",10,,"NathanMcKnight","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-22T16:10:59.000Z","2016-04-18T20:15:48.000Z","2025-06-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon",4,,"PlacidPlatypus","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-28T16:57:21.000Z","2016-04-18T20:15:48.000Z","2025-06-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon",5,,"mbohler62","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-30T03:22:18.000Z","2016-04-18T20:15:48.000Z","2025-06-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",61,,"jungwon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T23:40:29.630Z","2020-11-20T19:42:18.420Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",20,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T19:46:15.335Z","2020-11-20T19:42:18.420Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",77,,"Slider","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:07:39.248Z","2020-11-20T19:42:18.420Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",30,,"Measure","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:07:49.191Z","2020-11-20T19:42:18.420Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",35,,"Measure","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:09:26.646Z","2020-11-20T19:42:18.420Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",66,,"Yonge","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:41:54.855Z","2020-11-20T19:42:18.420Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",72,,"Yonge","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:42:04.074Z","2020-11-20T19:42:18.420Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",68,,"Yonge","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:42:06.447Z","2020-11-20T19:42:18.420Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",63,,"Yonge","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:42:12.797Z","2020-11-20T19:42:18.420Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",68,,"Yonge","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:42:13.951Z","2020-11-20T19:42:18.420Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",75,,"Yonge","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:42:20.377Z","2020-11-20T19:42:18.420Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",76,,"Yonge","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:42:24.750Z","2020-11-20T19:42:18.420Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",75,,"Yonge","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:42:24.892Z","2020-11-20T19:42:18.420Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",73,,"Yonge","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:42:25.504Z","2020-11-20T19:42:18.420Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",77,,"Yonge","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:42:28.145Z","2020-11-20T19:42:18.420Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",75,,"Yonge","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:42:32.142Z","2020-11-20T19:42:18.420Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",73,,"Yonge","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:42:38.895Z","2020-11-20T19:42:18.420Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",75,,"Yonge","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:42:45.111Z","2020-11-20T19:42:18.420Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",85,,"DanielFilan","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:53:38.458Z","2020-11-20T19:42:18.420Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",20,,"RowanE","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:39:47.887Z","2020-11-20T19:42:18.420Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",77,,"Logan Zoellner","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T17:59:11.037Z","2020-11-20T19:42:18.420Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",75,,"kilotaras","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T09:13:18.970Z","2020-11-20T19:42:18.420Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",95,,"ChristianKl","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T11:57:40.962Z","2020-11-20T19:42:18.420Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",51,,"jp","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T14:39:47.484Z","2020-11-20T19:42:18.420Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",60,,"Andreas S","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T23:56:07.571Z","2020-11-20T19:42:18.420Z","2030-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.",65,,"themusicgod1","penten",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-01T13:01:57.000Z","2016-12-01T11:53:33.000Z","2021-12-01T11:53:33.000Z"
"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.",1,,"NickN","penten",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T02:55:02.749Z","2016-12-01T11:53:33.000Z","2021-12-01T11:53:33.000Z"
"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.",30,,"penten","penten",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-01T11:53:33.000Z","2016-12-01T11:53:33.000Z","2021-12-01T11:53:33.000Z"
"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.",66,,"playablecharacter","penten",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-02T21:18:30.000Z","2016-12-01T11:53:33.000Z","2021-12-01T11:53:33.000Z"
"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.",80,,"JesseClifton","penten",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-28T23:12:08.000Z","2016-12-01T11:53:33.000Z","2021-12-01T11:53:33.000Z"
"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.",80,,"JasperGeh","penten",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-12T11:25:05.000Z","2016-12-01T11:53:33.000Z","2021-12-01T11:53:33.000Z"
"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.",87,,"Michael Dickens","penten",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-28T03:58:06.000Z","2016-12-01T11:53:33.000Z","2021-12-01T11:53:33.000Z"
"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.",85,,"rk","penten",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-10-06T12:32:12.000Z","2016-12-01T11:53:33.000Z","2021-12-01T11:53:33.000Z"
"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.",38,,"JoshuaZ","penten",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-01T14:42:01.000Z","2016-12-01T11:53:33.000Z","2021-12-01T11:53:33.000Z"
"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.",75,,"RainbowSpacedancer","penten",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-02T02:27:32.000Z","2016-12-01T11:53:33.000Z","2021-12-01T11:53:33.000Z"
"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.",76,,"Pablo","penten",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-25T16:52:33.000Z","2016-12-01T11:53:33.000Z","2021-12-01T11:53:33.000Z"
"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.",70,,"Ben Doherty","penten",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-13T23:07:26.000Z","2016-12-01T11:53:33.000Z","2021-12-01T11:53:33.000Z"
"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.",70,,"Michael Dickens","penten",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-16T05:13:10.000Z","2016-12-01T11:53:33.000Z","2021-12-01T11:53:33.000Z"
"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.",85,,"Michael Dickens","penten","Updating in favor of this happening due to recent events. Currently four companies (?) claim that they are going to do this, only one of them needs to succeed. Two claim they're coming out <=2019 which leaves a wide margin of error.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-07-11T00:51:35.000Z","2016-12-01T11:53:33.000Z","2021-12-01T11:53:33.000Z"
"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.",42,,"JoshuaZ","penten","Updating. Cheaper seems likely, but 20 times cheaper still seems very unlikely. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-27T01:35:43.000Z","2016-12-01T11:53:33.000Z","2021-12-01T11:53:33.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035",25,,"kilobug","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-18T17:08:01.000Z","2011-11-17T02:58:59.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035",60,,"Porejide","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-22T01:06:32.000Z","2011-11-17T02:58:59.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035",53,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T22:09:05.000Z","2011-11-17T02:58:59.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035",49,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T19:04:57.697Z","2011-11-17T02:58:59.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035",45,,"Baeboo","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-27T05:09:11.201Z","2011-11-17T02:58:59.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035",30,,"gwern","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T20:26:38.000Z","2011-11-17T02:58:59.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035",100,,"Anubhav","JoshuaZ","It says 'by 2035'. So if it happens sooner, that counts too.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T05:14:16.000Z","2011-11-17T02:58:59.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035",45,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T02:58:59.000Z","2011-11-17T02:58:59.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035",100,,"deleteyourbrain","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:20:57.070Z","2011-11-17T02:58:59.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035",48,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T21:11:03.754Z","2011-11-17T02:58:59.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035",15,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:16:13.726Z","2011-11-17T02:58:59.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035",50,,"lavalamp","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T16:51:00.000Z","2011-11-17T02:58:59.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035",0,,"Harbinger1","JoshuaZ","Will happen sooner.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T04:25:31.000Z","2011-11-17T02:58:59.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035",95,,"Antbak","JoshuaZ","I understand this to mean any lunar related tourism, e.g. an orbit of the moon by a tourist",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-08T21:13:08.147Z","2011-11-17T02:58:59.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site",70,,"amadeu","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-17T20:23:08.463Z","2020-06-24T03:46:57.730Z","2021-01-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site",90,,"Baeboo","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-28T01:32:08.582Z","2020-06-24T03:46:57.730Z","2021-01-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site",80,,"peter_hurford","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-24T03:46:57.736Z","2020-06-24T03:46:57.730Z","2021-01-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site",75,,"wizzwizz4","peter_hurford","Conjunction. I give the first part very-high if Scott doesn't get doxxed, 60% if he does, but the second part is around 90% / 20%.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-24T14:28:31.450Z","2020-06-24T03:46:57.730Z","2021-01-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site",60,,"ayegill","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-16T14:22:20.847Z","2020-06-24T03:46:57.730Z","2021-01-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site",75,,"Medea","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-09T11:16:00.305Z","2020-06-24T03:46:57.730Z","2021-01-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site",90,,"Deepak","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-24T12:50:40.255Z","2020-06-24T03:46:57.730Z","2021-01-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site",98,,"azatris","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-24T11:54:25.287Z","2020-06-24T03:46:57.730Z","2021-01-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site",78,,"JoshuaZ","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-25T12:53:46.479Z","2020-06-24T03:46:57.730Z","2021-01-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site",75,,"srconstantin","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-29T20:05:17.719Z","2020-06-24T03:46:57.730Z","2021-01-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site",80,,"qznc","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-30T20:44:10.745Z","2020-06-24T03:46:57.730Z","2021-01-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site",65,,"PlacidPlatypus","peter_hurford","More spam on these comments than most predictions, I wonder why.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-16T22:35:35.114Z","2020-06-24T03:46:57.730Z","2021-01-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site",90,,"wizzwizz4","peter_hurford","Slate Star Codex is kind of back up again, in the sense that old links now work. I'm only not higher because he could still be doxxed before he writes another post, and might take stuff down before the end of the year.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-27T21:23:39.560Z","2020-06-24T03:46:57.730Z","2021-01-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025",17,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T19:04:44.960Z","2011-11-17T02:58:31.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025",18,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T21:11:23.321Z","2011-11-17T02:58:31.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025",18,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T00:06:13.000Z","2011-11-17T02:58:31.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025",30,,"Porejide","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-22T01:06:57.000Z","2011-11-17T02:58:31.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025",10,,"kilobug","JoshuaZ","Not so soon.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-18T17:07:50.000Z","2011-11-17T02:58:31.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025",14,,"faws","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-18T13:42:33.000Z","2011-11-17T02:58:31.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025",20,,"gwern","JoshuaZ","what new techs? a space elevator? going to the moon is energetically expensive; it's like, what, an order more energy than LEO or wherever virgin is aimed at",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T20:26:27.000Z","2011-11-17T02:58:31.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025",25,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T02:58:31.000Z","2011-11-17T02:58:31.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025",17,,"Baeboo","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-27T05:09:37.923Z","2011-11-17T02:58:31.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025",100,,"deleteyourbrain","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:21:22.471Z","2011-11-17T02:58:31.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025",5,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:19:07.297Z","2011-11-17T02:58:31.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025",47,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T22:08:53.000Z","2011-11-17T02:58:31.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025",50,,"Anubhav","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T05:13:25.000Z","2011-11-17T02:58:31.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025",60,,"Harbinger1","JoshuaZ","New technologies will make it possible.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T04:26:16.000Z","2011-11-17T02:58:31.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025",25,,"Pablo","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T16:55:40.000Z","2011-11-17T02:58:31.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog",60,,"procran","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-23T10:19:11.000Z","2011-11-20T08:03:28.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog",40,,"chemotaxis101","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-26T11:44:26.000Z","2011-11-20T08:03:28.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog",60,,"TrE","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-29T22:56:28.000Z","2011-11-20T08:03:28.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog",55,,"roxton","Jayson Virissimo","The phrasing suggests the complete absence of small, traditionalist subcultures, which I find tough to swallow.  But then, environmental considerations and food production may make the requisite isolation unattainable.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-30T16:49:54.000Z","2011-11-20T08:03:28.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog",90,,"shokwave","Jayson Virissimo","I'm going on ""its present form as the average human would describe it"" not ""as the average PBer would describe it"", we are already steeped in substrate independence and quantum self-identity",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-01T00:29:56.000Z","2011-11-20T08:03:28.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog",100,,"themusicgod1","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T22:58:18.000Z","2011-11-20T08:03:28.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog",62,,"JoshuaZ","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T01:51:13.000Z","2011-11-20T08:03:28.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog",80,,"pranomostro","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:44:25.436Z","2011-11-20T08:03:28.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog",45,,"Jayson Virissimo","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-20T08:03:28.000Z","2011-11-20T08:03:28.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog",35,,"procran","Jayson Virissimo","I suppose this includes the probabilities of self annihilation as well as a singularity.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-20T11:32:03.000Z","2011-11-20T08:03:28.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog",65,,"gwern","Jayson Virissimo","I'd go with either existential risk or singularity here",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-20T16:55:48.000Z","2011-11-20T08:03:28.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog",90,,"bobpage","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-20T20:39:53.000Z","2011-11-20T08:03:28.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog",83,,"Baeboo","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T04:33:29.205Z","2011-11-20T08:03:28.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.",15,,"papermachine","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-25T00:18:37.000Z","2011-08-25T00:00:27.000Z","2039-08-25T00:00:27.000Z"
"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.",18,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-25T03:42:35.000Z","2011-08-25T00:00:27.000Z","2039-08-25T00:00:27.000Z"
"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.",25,,"Jack","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-31T02:39:59.000Z","2011-08-25T00:00:27.000Z","2039-08-25T00:00:27.000Z"
"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.",15,,"Serge","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-18T07:52:10.000Z","2011-08-25T00:00:27.000Z","2039-08-25T00:00:27.000Z"
"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.",25,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T12:44:53.000Z","2011-08-25T00:00:27.000Z","2039-08-25T00:00:27.000Z"
"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T02:17:44.000Z","2011-08-25T00:00:27.000Z","2039-08-25T00:00:27.000Z"
"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.",12,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-03T21:46:57.181Z","2011-08-25T00:00:27.000Z","2039-08-25T00:00:27.000Z"
"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.",25,,"Grognor","gwern","kind of revealing an inconsistency since I gave a higher number for larry king. hm.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-06T20:58:17.000Z","2011-08-25T00:00:27.000Z","2039-08-25T00:00:27.000Z"
"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.",10,,"Michael Stevens","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-15T13:14:27.000Z","2011-08-25T00:00:27.000Z","2039-08-25T00:00:27.000Z"
"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.",13,,"anonym","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-26T03:09:38.000Z","2011-08-25T00:00:27.000Z","2039-08-25T00:00:27.000Z"
"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.",4,,"bobpage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-25T00:11:02.000Z","2011-08-25T00:00:27.000Z","2039-08-25T00:00:27.000Z"
"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-25T00:00:27.000Z","2011-08-25T00:00:27.000Z","2039-08-25T00:00:27.000Z"
"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.",5,,"gwern","najdorf","2050 is a long time away.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-12T17:10:35.000Z","2013-11-12T07:33:48.000Z","2051-01-01T02:00:00.000Z"
"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.",1,,"mortehu","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-16T19:08:32.000Z","2013-11-12T07:33:48.000Z","2051-01-01T02:00:00.000Z"
"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.",2,,"ewang","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-12-15T04:42:59.000Z","2013-11-12T07:33:48.000Z","2051-01-01T02:00:00.000Z"
"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.",1,,"Rowan93","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-24T17:05:39.000Z","2013-11-12T07:33:48.000Z","2051-01-01T02:00:00.000Z"
"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.",1,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","najdorf","Very difficult to change a culture that much. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-10T04:29:20.000Z","2013-11-12T07:33:48.000Z","2051-01-01T02:00:00.000Z"
"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.",1,,"JoshuaZ","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-04T14:31:37.000Z","2013-11-12T07:33:48.000Z","2051-01-01T02:00:00.000Z"
"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.",1,,"pranomostro","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T22:50:19.146Z","2013-11-12T07:33:48.000Z","2051-01-01T02:00:00.000Z"
"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.",1,,"Baeboo","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T03:42:19.660Z","2013-11-12T07:33:48.000Z","2051-01-01T02:00:00.000Z"
"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.",0,,"deleteyourbrain","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T02:57:49.127Z","2013-11-12T07:33:48.000Z","2051-01-01T02:00:00.000Z"
"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.",3,,"najdorf","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-12T07:33:48.000Z","2013-11-12T07:33:48.000Z","2051-01-01T02:00:00.000Z"
"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.",0,,"JoshuaZ","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-12T15:29:00.000Z","2013-11-12T07:33:48.000Z","2051-01-01T02:00:00.000Z"
"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.",1,,"Lagren","najdorf","Possible but highly unlikely. You'd have to oust the Orthodox church first.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-12-14T00:04:51.000Z","2013-11-12T07:33:48.000Z","2051-01-01T02:00:00.000Z"
"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.",0,,"Peteris","najdorf","Any such internal shift is unlikely. An external shift to this very specific outcome has a low base rate.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-04T08:27:02.000Z","2013-11-12T07:33:48.000Z","2051-01-01T02:00:00.000Z"
"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",20,,"RandomThinker","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-02T07:34:46.000Z","2012-10-01T13:51:34.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",50,,"chemotaxis101","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-13T17:45:22.000Z","2012-10-01T13:51:34.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",50,,"Pablo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T13:51:34.000Z","2012-10-01T13:51:34.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",30,,"NathanMcKnight","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T16:17:40.000Z","2012-10-01T13:51:34.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",45,,"gwern","Pablo","see also by 2013 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5098",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T19:26:55.000Z","2012-10-01T13:51:34.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",45,,"JoshuaZ","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-27T16:04:22.000Z","2012-10-01T13:51:34.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",30,,"rebellionkid","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-01T12:45:10.000Z","2012-10-01T13:51:34.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",5,,"JoshuaZ","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-02T02:58:31.000Z","2012-10-01T13:51:34.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",50,,"pranomostro","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:42:26.543Z","2012-10-01T13:51:34.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",37,,"Baeboo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T02:24:21.797Z","2012-10-01T13:51:34.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",30,,"Qiaochu","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-12-06T09:40:02.000Z","2012-10-01T13:51:34.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",50,,"Tuxedage","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-27T16:16:42.000Z","2012-10-01T13:51:34.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",40,,"anonym","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-30T04:39:12.000Z","2012-10-01T13:51:34.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”",0,,"deleteyourbrain","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:13:09.023Z","2010-07-29T18:20:17.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”",12,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-16T02:10:42.930Z","2010-07-29T18:20:17.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”",60,,"ChristianKl","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-29T15:52:18.000Z","2010-07-29T18:20:17.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”",50,,"dhoe","gwern","I've spoken to somebody in aerospace who claimed that ""everybody in the industry knows"" it would be safer, but they still won't do it due to human psychology.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-29T11:34:22.000Z","2010-07-29T18:20:17.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”",20,,"simplicio","gwern","Computers may do most or all of the work but removing the human pilot is a relatively pointless step considering their relative cheapness (compared to e.g., fuel) and the ""comfort factor"" they give to passengers.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-28T20:57:03.000Z","2010-07-29T18:20:17.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”",25,,"RandomThinker","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-28T02:55:33.000Z","2010-07-29T18:20:17.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”",70,,"Malgidus","gwern","Safer, more cost effective.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-27T22:24:51.000Z","2010-07-29T18:20:17.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”",45,,"Grognor","gwern","not as in always, right? routinely as in... sometimes, and it doesn't make the news every single time? that's how I'm taking it",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-06T19:32:43.000Z","2010-07-29T18:20:17.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”",20,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-15T21:51:37.460Z","2010-07-29T18:20:17.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T23:07:49.000Z","2010-07-29T18:20:17.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”",35,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-28T19:42:42.000Z","2010-07-29T18:20:17.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”",30,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-29T18:20:17.000Z","2010-07-29T18:20:17.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.",90,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-29T07:29:37.000Z","2011-12-29T01:59:46.000Z","2025-12-29T01:59:46.000Z"
"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.",85,,"endoself","gwern","This assumes no radical changes in medical technology.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-31T05:02:15.000Z","2011-12-29T01:59:46.000Z","2025-12-29T01:59:46.000Z"
"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.",75,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-31T07:16:16.000Z","2011-12-29T01:59:46.000Z","2025-12-29T01:59:46.000Z"
"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.",95,,"muflax","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-31T10:18:51.000Z","2011-12-29T01:59:46.000Z","2025-12-29T01:59:46.000Z"
"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.",80,,"chemotaxis101","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-07-01T15:54:45.000Z","2011-12-29T01:59:46.000Z","2025-12-29T01:59:46.000Z"
"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.",99,,"Andrew MacFie","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-09T17:12:48.000Z","2011-12-29T01:59:46.000Z","2025-12-29T01:59:46.000Z"
"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.",58,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-09T19:19:23.000Z","2011-12-29T01:59:46.000Z","2025-12-29T01:59:46.000Z"
"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.",95,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:35:40.319Z","2011-12-29T01:59:46.000Z","2025-12-29T01:59:46.000Z"
"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.",95,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-29T01:59:47.000Z","2011-12-29T01:59:46.000Z","2025-12-29T01:59:46.000Z"
"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.",85,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-29T14:05:36.000Z","2011-12-29T01:59:46.000Z","2025-12-29T01:59:46.000Z"
"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.",95,,"papermachine","gwern","I'm with gwern on this one.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-31T17:40:57.000Z","2011-12-29T01:59:46.000Z","2025-12-29T01:59:46.000Z"
"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.",90,,"clemux","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-31T19:52:41.000Z","2011-12-29T01:59:46.000Z","2025-12-29T01:59:46.000Z"
"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030",40,,"Baeboo","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T03:11:03.696Z","2013-05-20T13:47:11.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030",47,,"pranomostro","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:00:40.673Z","2013-05-20T13:47:11.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030",30,,"lavalamp","RandomThinker","Using RandomThinker's definition, and adding that hybrids don't count.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-02T22:29:14.000Z","2013-05-20T13:47:11.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030",30,,"procran","RandomThinker","Assuming this refers to the USA.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-02T22:56:34.000Z","2013-05-20T13:47:11.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030",40,,"gwern","RandomThinker","by randomthinker (obviously false as stated, people will be driving 2013 cars in 2030 in the absence of coercion!)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-02T20:57:28.000Z","2013-05-20T13:47:11.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030",0,,"deleteyourbrain","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T03:01:25.770Z","2013-05-20T13:47:11.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030",15,,"Nithi","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-23T02:23:42.000Z","2013-05-20T13:47:11.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030",60,,"ShIxtan","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-30T23:50:57.000Z","2013-05-20T13:47:11.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030",60,,"holycow81","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-27T03:24:55.000Z","2013-05-20T13:47:11.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030",45,,"JoshuaZ","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-20T21:33:00.000Z","2013-05-20T13:47:11.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030",35,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-20T13:47:11.000Z","2013-05-20T13:47:11.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030",1,,"NickN","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T04:37:02.944Z","2013-05-20T13:47:11.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin",5,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-01T23:46:32.000Z","2012-01-01T23:46:32.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin",5,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-02T02:16:49.000Z","2012-01-01T23:46:32.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin",16,,"faws","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-02T02:25:08.000Z","2012-01-01T23:46:32.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin",2,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-02T04:59:03.000Z","2012-01-01T23:46:32.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin",15,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-08T12:20:02.000Z","2012-01-01T23:46:32.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin",20,,"Vulture","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-20T23:21:24.000Z","2012-01-01T23:46:32.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:35:19.000Z","2012-01-01T23:46:32.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin",20,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:28:45.702Z","2012-01-01T23:46:32.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin",5,,"muflax","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-02T14:44:24.000Z","2012-01-01T23:46:32.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin",5,,"Emanuel Rylke","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-02T15:20:16.000Z","2012-01-01T23:46:32.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin",10,,"Larklight","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-03T05:07:31.000Z","2012-01-01T23:46:32.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin",20,,"chemotaxis101","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-07-01T15:53:18.000Z","2012-01-01T23:46:32.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",70,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:37:23.852Z","2020-11-30T19:54:43.636Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",10,,"Pialgo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:10:46.823Z","2020-11-30T19:54:43.636Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",15,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:43:29.271Z","2020-11-30T19:54:43.636Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",10,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:44:12.411Z","2020-11-30T19:54:43.636Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",81,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:19:37.125Z","2020-11-30T19:54:43.636Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",79,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:19:31.993Z","2020-11-30T19:54:43.636Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",82,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:19:30.780Z","2020-11-30T19:54:43.636Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",83,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:19:27.278Z","2020-11-30T19:54:43.636Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",91,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:18:56.245Z","2020-11-30T19:54:43.636Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",90,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:18:53.498Z","2020-11-30T19:54:43.636Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",89,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:18:52.721Z","2020-11-30T19:54:43.636Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",96,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:18:46.655Z","2020-11-30T19:54:43.636Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",95,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:18:44.861Z","2020-11-30T19:54:43.636Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",10,,"Emiya","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:58:52.502Z","2020-11-30T19:54:43.636Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",70,,"adamShimi","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:01:15.990Z","2020-11-30T19:54:43.636Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",80,,"AnthonyC","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:50:51.203Z","2020-11-30T19:54:43.636Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",89,,"CellBioGuy","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T07:50:04.873Z","2020-11-30T19:54:43.636Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",10,,"Michael H","Michael H","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T19:54:43.652Z","2020-11-30T19:54:43.636Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",1,,"Yousif","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T22:30:33.701Z","2020-11-30T19:54:43.636Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",5,,"TurnTrout","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:34:10.644Z","2020-11-30T19:54:43.636Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",50,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:19:22.654Z","2020-11-30T19:54:43.636Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",49,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:19:15.781Z","2020-11-30T19:54:43.636Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",40,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:19:09.793Z","2020-11-30T19:54:43.636Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",33,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:19:08.238Z","2020-11-30T19:54:43.636Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",25,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:18:49.266Z","2020-11-30T19:54:43.636Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",77,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:37:20.763Z","2020-11-30T19:54:43.636Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",12,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:37:39.244Z","2020-11-30T19:55:30.216Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",20,,"Pialgo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:10:50.382Z","2020-11-30T19:55:30.216Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",80,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:42:40.391Z","2020-11-30T19:55:30.216Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",72,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:42:49.748Z","2020-11-30T19:55:30.216Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",80,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:43:34.244Z","2020-11-30T19:55:30.216Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",79,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:43:57.789Z","2020-11-30T19:55:30.216Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",70,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:44:17.939Z","2020-11-30T19:55:30.216Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",5,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:19:22.523Z","2020-11-30T19:55:30.216Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",4,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:19:21.603Z","2020-11-30T19:55:30.216Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",40,,"Emiya","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:59:02.969Z","2020-11-30T19:55:30.216Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",34,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T12:34:03.894Z","2020-11-30T19:55:30.216Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",39,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T12:35:48.237Z","2020-11-30T19:55:30.216Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",30,,"adamShimi","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:01:25.105Z","2020-11-30T19:55:30.216Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",10,,"AnthonyC","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:50:45.724Z","2020-11-30T19:55:30.216Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",18,,"CellBioGuy","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T07:50:09.870Z","2020-11-30T19:55:30.216Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",40,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T12:35:49.592Z","2020-11-30T19:55:30.216Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",35,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T12:36:06.950Z","2020-11-30T19:55:30.216Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",10,,"Michael H","Michael H","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T19:55:30.224Z","2020-11-30T19:55:30.216Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",60,,"Yousif","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T22:30:43.838Z","2020-11-30T19:55:30.216Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",60,,"TurnTrout","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:33:56.950Z","2020-11-30T19:55:30.216Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",25,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:18:53.220Z","2020-11-30T19:55:30.216Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",75,,"TurnTrout","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:34:11.799Z","2020-11-30T19:55:30.216Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_",60,,"Athrelon","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-27T23:39:56.000Z","2011-01-10T23:25:20.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_",30,,"Anubhav","gwern","per gwern",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-07T02:16:07.000Z","2011-01-10T23:25:20.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_",30,,"Leo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-25T12:35:11.000Z","2011-01-10T23:25:20.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_",50,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-12T14:01:21.000Z","2011-01-10T23:25:20.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_",40,,"Konkvistador","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-08T09:56:36.000Z","2011-01-10T23:25:20.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_",30,,"muflax","gwern","I'm optimistic that GRRM will follow his earlier release cycle and finish in <6 years",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-24T05:19:27.000Z","2011-01-10T23:25:20.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_",35,,"luminosity","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-13T01:13:18.000Z","2011-01-10T23:25:20.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_",40,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-11T01:56:14.000Z","2011-01-10T23:25:20.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-10T23:25:20.000Z","2011-01-10T23:25:20.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_",65,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T03:12:53.000Z","2011-01-10T23:25:20.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_",35,,"RandomThinker","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-06T19:48:41.000Z","2011-01-10T23:25:20.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_",35,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-02T11:11:44.000Z","2011-01-10T23:25:20.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_",30,,"gwern","gwern","http://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html gives him 18.6 more average years; 2 more planned novels at 6 years a piece = only 12. the odds look much better than I thought",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-01T21:30:58.000Z","2011-01-10T23:25:20.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan",60,,"Athrelon","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-27T23:36:57.000Z","2011-07-21T18:48:52.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan",40,,"RandomThinker","gwern","Clinton earned 100 million in 10 yrs.  Even though there's inflation, it's not that easy to out-hustle Bill. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-28T08:53:44.000Z","2011-07-21T18:48:52.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan",65,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-29T10:42:07.000Z","2011-07-21T18:48:52.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T01:21:31.000Z","2011-07-21T18:48:52.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan",60,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T19:59:41.254Z","2011-07-21T18:48:52.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan",80,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-21T18:48:52.000Z","2011-07-21T18:48:52.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan",90,,"Konkvistador","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-21T21:10:13.000Z","2011-07-21T18:48:52.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan",65,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-22T03:44:19.000Z","2011-07-21T18:48:52.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan",70,,"roxton","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-19T22:44:04.000Z","2011-07-21T18:48:52.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan",60,,"NathanMcKnight","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-28T13:55:26.000Z","2011-07-21T18:48:52.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan",70,,"amadeu","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-07T19:51:01.320Z","2011-07-21T18:48:52.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will any of the NYT Coronavirus vaccine tracker numbers increase between 9am PST Fri 11/20 and 9am PST Sun 11/22?",80,"NO","Dilhan P","Amanda N","The update dates posted by William below seems to suggest a 75% chance of change in a 2-day period; I'm going a bit more extreme in light of the forecasts so far","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves as yes if any of the numbers shown under each phase increase during the time period specified.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-14T17:07:02.998Z","2020-11-13T17:06:07.990Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will any of the NYT Coronavirus vaccine tracker numbers increase between 9am PST Fri 11/20 and 9am PST Sun 11/22?",75,"NO","Abigail T","Amanda N","This is only true for 60% of days in the past couple of weeks (from what I can get off wayback, and guessing a bit where it hasn't saved things), but it looks like things are speeding up","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves as yes if any of the numbers shown under each phase increase during the time period specified.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-15T01:04:40.641Z","2020-11-13T17:06:07.990Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will any of the NYT Coronavirus vaccine tracker numbers increase between 9am PST Fri 11/20 and 9am PST Sun 11/22?",85,"NO","Ethan Perez","Amanda N","","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves as yes if any of the numbers shown under each phase increase during the time period specified.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:45:55.035Z","2020-11-13T17:06:07.990Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will any of the NYT Coronavirus vaccine tracker numbers increase between 9am PST Fri 11/20 and 9am PST Sun 11/22?",80,"NO","William S","Amanda N","Previous updates: Nov 3, Nov 6, Nov 7, Nov 9, Nov 10, Nov 13","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves as yes if any of the numbers shown under each phase increase during the time period specified.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:39:37.164Z","2020-11-13T17:06:07.990Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will any of the NYT Coronavirus vaccine tracker numbers increase between 9am PST Fri 11/20 and 9am PST Sun 11/22?",85,"NO","Amanda N","Amanda N","I *think* it's increased in the last few days, but I don't remember exactly. Recording what it's currently at now, and will come back in a few days to see if it has increased:

39, 16, 12, 6, 0","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves as yes if any of the numbers shown under each phase increase during the time period specified.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:29:03.844Z","2020-11-13T17:06:07.990Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will any of the NYT Coronavirus vaccine tracker numbers increase between 9am PST Fri 11/20 and 9am PST Sun 11/22?",80,"NO","Nicholas","Amanda N","Seems about right from recent history","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves as yes if any of the numbers shown under each phase increase during the time period specified.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T19:05:24.635Z","2020-11-13T17:06:07.990Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will any of the NYT Coronavirus vaccine tracker numbers increase between 9am PST Fri 11/20 and 9am PST Sun 11/22?",85,"NO","William S","Amanda N","Can look at https://web.archive.org/web/*/https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves as yes if any of the numbers shown under each phase increase during the time period specified.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:19:23.636Z","2020-11-13T17:06:07.990Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will any of the NYT Coronavirus vaccine tracker numbers increase between 9am PST Fri 11/20 and 9am PST Sun 11/22?",80,"NO","Amanda N","Amanda N","","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves as yes if any of the numbers shown under each phase increase during the time period specified.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:15:00.560Z","2020-11-13T17:06:07.990Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will any of the NYT Coronavirus vaccine tracker numbers increase between 9am PST Fri 11/20 and 9am PST Sun 11/22?",75,"NO","Andreas S","Amanda N","","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves as yes if any of the numbers shown under each phase increase during the time period specified.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-19T23:12:45.602Z","2020-11-13T17:06:07.990Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will any of the NYT Coronavirus vaccine tracker numbers increase between 9am PST Fri 11/20 and 9am PST Sun 11/22?",95,"NO","Hoorman_Cain","Amanda N","","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves as yes if any of the numbers shown under each phase increase during the time period specified.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T03:16:17.153Z","2020-11-13T17:06:07.990Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will any of the NYT Coronavirus vaccine tracker numbers increase between 9am PST Fri 11/20 and 9am PST Sun 11/22?",85,"NO","marcin.kowrygo","Amanda N","","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves as yes if any of the numbers shown under each phase increase during the time period specified.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T17:18:37.888Z","2020-11-13T17:06:07.990Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will any of the NYT Coronavirus vaccine tracker numbers increase between 9am PST Fri 11/20 and 9am PST Sun 11/22?",80,"NO","mattvdm","Amanda N","","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves as yes if any of the numbers shown under each phase increase during the time period specified.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T10:30:24.285Z","2020-11-13T17:06:07.990Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will any of the NYT Coronavirus vaccine tracker numbers increase between 9am PST Fri 11/20 and 9am PST Sun 11/22?",80,"NO","Will B","Amanda N","","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves as yes if any of the numbers shown under each phase increase during the time period specified.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T00:44:20.418Z","2020-11-13T17:06:07.990Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will any of the NYT Coronavirus vaccine tracker numbers increase between 9am PST Fri 11/20 and 9am PST Sun 11/22?",0,"NO","Will B","Amanda N","","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves as yes if any of the numbers shown under each phase increase during the time period specified.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T00:43:52.366Z","2020-11-13T17:06:07.990Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will any of the NYT Coronavirus vaccine tracker numbers increase between 9am PST Fri 11/20 and 9am PST Sun 11/22?",80,"NO","Will B","Amanda N","","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves as yes if any of the numbers shown under each phase increase during the time period specified.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T00:43:41.579Z","2020-11-13T17:06:07.990Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020",0,,"Baeboo","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-20T02:25:04.522Z","2016-05-29T02:19:33.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020",1,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-16T15:28:58.000Z","2016-05-29T02:19:33.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020",49,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-08T08:26:48.000Z","2016-05-29T02:19:33.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020",0,,"Vipul Naik","InquilineKea","Actually, not EXACTLY 0%, but close enough",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-08T01:45:49.000Z","2016-05-29T02:19:33.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020",2,,"Waring","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-02T20:23:24.000Z","2016-05-29T02:19:33.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020",1,,"Baeboo","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-14T07:18:23.000Z","2016-05-29T02:19:33.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020",1,,"KnaveOfAllTrades","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-20T05:34:31.000Z","2016-05-29T02:19:33.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020",0,,"playablecharacter","InquilineKea"," vipul is right",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-08T01:56:00.000Z","2016-05-29T02:19:33.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020",1,,"Issa Rice","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-08T01:53:04.000Z","2016-05-29T02:19:33.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020",20,,"elephantower","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-05T05:39:24.000Z","2016-05-29T02:19:33.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020",8,,"EloiseRosen","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-30T18:13:20.000Z","2016-05-29T02:19:33.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020",25,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-29T02:19:33.000Z","2016-05-29T02:19:33.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?",20,,"Pialgo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:11:27.206Z","2020-11-30T19:56:56.415Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?",1,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:38:11.061Z","2020-11-30T19:56:56.415Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?",26,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:21:02.641Z","2020-11-30T19:56:56.415Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?",20,,"Emiya","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:59:29.620Z","2020-11-30T19:56:56.415Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?",10,,"adamShimi","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:02:24.042Z","2020-11-30T19:56:56.415Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?",5,,"AnthonyC","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:51:28.298Z","2020-11-30T19:56:56.415Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?",23,,"CellBioGuy","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T07:50:32.940Z","2020-11-30T19:56:56.415Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?",70,,"Michael H","Michael H","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T19:56:56.421Z","2020-11-30T19:56:56.415Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?",95,,"Yousif","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T22:32:52.359Z","2020-11-30T19:56:56.415Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?",5,,"TurnTrout","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:34:41.977Z","2020-11-30T19:56:56.415Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?",14,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:32:21.909Z","2020-11-30T19:56:56.415Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",70,,"Pialgo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:10:36.275Z","2020-11-30T19:54:13.532Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",11,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:43:20.316Z","2020-11-30T19:54:13.532Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",10,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:43:43.269Z","2020-11-30T19:54:13.532Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",11,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:43:45.418Z","2020-11-30T19:54:13.532Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",22,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:44:08.686Z","2020-11-30T19:54:13.532Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",21,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:44:09.464Z","2020-11-30T19:54:13.532Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",20,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:44:10.014Z","2020-11-30T19:54:13.532Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",31,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:18:38.231Z","2020-11-30T19:54:13.532Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",50,,"Emiya","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:58:42.695Z","2020-11-30T19:54:13.532Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",22,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T12:34:00.895Z","2020-11-30T19:54:13.532Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",60,,"adamShimi","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:01:06.631Z","2020-11-30T19:54:13.532Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",10,,"AnthonyC","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:50:26.942Z","2020-11-30T19:54:13.532Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",10,,"CellBioGuy","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T07:50:08.341Z","2020-11-30T19:54:13.532Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",20,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T12:35:51.857Z","2020-11-30T19:54:13.532Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",10,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T12:35:59.576Z","2020-11-30T19:54:13.532Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",15,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T12:36:04.900Z","2020-11-30T19:54:13.532Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",80,,"Michael H","Michael H","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T19:54:13.539Z","2020-11-30T19:54:13.532Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",2,,"Yousif","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T22:30:07.733Z","2020-11-30T19:54:13.532Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",50,,"Yousif","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T22:30:32.078Z","2020-11-30T19:54:13.532Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",40,,"Yousif","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T22:30:45.414Z","2020-11-30T19:54:13.532Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",20,,"TurnTrout","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:33:45.789Z","2020-11-30T19:54:13.532Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",25,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:19:20.383Z","2020-11-30T19:54:13.532Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",24,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:18:46.779Z","2020-11-30T19:54:13.532Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",39,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:18:32.935Z","2020-11-30T19:54:13.532Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",49,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:17:44.668Z","2020-11-30T19:54:13.532Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?",5,,"Pialgo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:10:24.741Z","2020-11-30T19:56:06.954Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?",10,,"Pialgo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:10:24.299Z","2020-11-30T19:56:06.954Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?",15,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:18:22.951Z","2020-11-30T19:56:06.954Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?",16,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:18:20.151Z","2020-11-30T19:56:06.954Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?",30,,"Emiya","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:58:24.797Z","2020-11-30T19:56:06.954Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?",75,,"adamShimi","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:00:57.251Z","2020-11-30T19:56:06.954Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?",1,,"AnthonyC","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:50:17.093Z","2020-11-30T19:56:06.954Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?",1,,"CellBioGuy","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T07:49:50.858Z","2020-11-30T19:56:06.954Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?",70,,"Michael H","Michael H","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T19:56:06.960Z","2020-11-30T19:56:06.954Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?",99,,"Yousif","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T22:29:41.958Z","2020-11-30T19:56:06.954Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?",75,,"TurnTrout","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:33:34.347Z","2020-11-30T19:56:06.954Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?",31,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:15:29.049Z","2020-11-30T19:56:06.954Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?",28,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:15:26.906Z","2020-11-30T19:56:06.954Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?",40,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T19:15:17.332Z","2020-11-30T19:56:06.954Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?",2,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:36:26.257Z","2020-11-30T19:56:06.954Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will any LessWrong post made on Friday 11/20 get more than 100 karma by 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",7,"YES","Dilhan P","Amanda N","looking at all posts listed here (incl. personal blogposts and shortform posts), the last one with >100 is from 5 days ago. Looking at the posts since then to 2 days ago suggests at most a prob of any given post getting to the target of ~1.5. Assuming around 15 posts on Friday gives us a prob of 20% for the day, but this is an overestimate since it includes posts that are more than 2 days old. Also guessing it takes a bit of time for the crowd dynamics on a new post to get into full swing?","Resolution: This post got >100 karma in the specified time period: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JLrnbThMyCYDBa6Gu/embedded-interactive-predictions-on-lesswrong-2

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
The post must be made between 12:01am PST and 11:59pm PST on Fri 11/20.
Resolves according to the karma numbers on lesswrong.com","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-14T17:23:14.675Z","2020-11-13T17:04:08.842Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will any LessWrong post made on Friday 11/20 get more than 100 karma by 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",25,"YES","Ben L","Amanda N","","Resolution: This post got >100 karma in the specified time period: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JLrnbThMyCYDBa6Gu/embedded-interactive-predictions-on-lesswrong-2

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
The post must be made between 12:01am PST and 11:59pm PST on Fri 11/20.
Resolves according to the karma numbers on lesswrong.com","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:54:00.866Z","2020-11-13T17:04:08.842Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will any LessWrong post made on Friday 11/20 get more than 100 karma by 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",20,"YES","William S","Amanda N","Seems like 5 posts in last month with >= 100 karma, but they maybe don't get that karma in the first couple of days","Resolution: This post got >100 karma in the specified time period: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JLrnbThMyCYDBa6Gu/embedded-interactive-predictions-on-lesswrong-2

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
The post must be made between 12:01am PST and 11:59pm PST on Fri 11/20.
Resolves according to the karma numbers on lesswrong.com","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:50:56.899Z","2020-11-13T17:04:08.842Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will any LessWrong post made on Friday 11/20 get more than 100 karma by 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",8,"YES","Amanda N","Amanda N","On quick glance, I think this is probably quite unlikely – the posts in the 'Latest' section that have > 100 have been around for more than 2 days, seems hard to get 100 karma in 2 days","Resolution: This post got >100 karma in the specified time period: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JLrnbThMyCYDBa6Gu/embedded-interactive-predictions-on-lesswrong-2

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
The post must be made between 12:01am PST and 11:59pm PST on Fri 11/20.
Resolves according to the karma numbers on lesswrong.com","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:47:21.803Z","2020-11-13T17:04:08.842Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will any LessWrong post made on Friday 11/20 get more than 100 karma by 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",50,"YES","Ethan Perez","Amanda N","","Resolution: This post got >100 karma in the specified time period: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JLrnbThMyCYDBa6Gu/embedded-interactive-predictions-on-lesswrong-2

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
The post must be made between 12:01am PST and 11:59pm PST on Fri 11/20.
Resolves according to the karma numbers on lesswrong.com","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:45:29.129Z","2020-11-13T17:04:08.842Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will any LessWrong post made on Friday 11/20 get more than 100 karma by 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",5,"YES","Abigail T","Amanda N","Based on wayback, the most recent post that _might have_ pulled this off would have done so by the 7th. I think it's very unlikely it did though (110 karma after 3 days).","Resolution: This post got >100 karma in the specified time period: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JLrnbThMyCYDBa6Gu/embedded-interactive-predictions-on-lesswrong-2

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
The post must be made between 12:01am PST and 11:59pm PST on Fri 11/20.
Resolves according to the karma numbers on lesswrong.com","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-16T02:41:06.913Z","2020-11-13T17:04:08.842Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will any LessWrong post made on Friday 11/20 get more than 100 karma by 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",50,"YES","William S","Amanda N","","Resolution: This post got >100 karma in the specified time period: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JLrnbThMyCYDBa6Gu/embedded-interactive-predictions-on-lesswrong-2

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
The post must be made between 12:01am PST and 11:59pm PST on Fri 11/20.
Resolves according to the karma numbers on lesswrong.com","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:19:43.843Z","2020-11-13T17:04:08.842Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will any LessWrong post made on Friday 11/20 get more than 100 karma by 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",8,"YES","Nicholas","Amanda N","","Resolution: This post got >100 karma in the specified time period: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JLrnbThMyCYDBa6Gu/embedded-interactive-predictions-on-lesswrong-2

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
The post must be made between 12:01am PST and 11:59pm PST on Fri 11/20.
Resolves according to the karma numbers on lesswrong.com","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T04:54:34.897Z","2020-11-13T17:04:08.842Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will any LessWrong post made on Friday 11/20 get more than 100 karma by 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",10,"YES","Andreas S","Amanda N","","Resolution: This post got >100 karma in the specified time period: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JLrnbThMyCYDBa6Gu/embedded-interactive-predictions-on-lesswrong-2

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
The post must be made between 12:01am PST and 11:59pm PST on Fri 11/20.
Resolves according to the karma numbers on lesswrong.com","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-19T23:13:34.631Z","2020-11-13T17:04:08.842Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will any LessWrong post made on Friday 11/20 get more than 100 karma by 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",10,"YES","mattvdm","Amanda N","","Resolution: This post got >100 karma in the specified time period: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JLrnbThMyCYDBa6Gu/embedded-interactive-predictions-on-lesswrong-2

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
The post must be made between 12:01am PST and 11:59pm PST on Fri 11/20.
Resolves according to the karma numbers on lesswrong.com","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T10:36:54.967Z","2020-11-13T17:04:08.842Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will any LessWrong post made on Friday 11/20 get more than 100 karma by 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",10,"YES","marcin.kowrygo","Amanda N","","Resolution: This post got >100 karma in the specified time period: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JLrnbThMyCYDBa6Gu/embedded-interactive-predictions-on-lesswrong-2

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
The post must be made between 12:01am PST and 11:59pm PST on Fri 11/20.
Resolves according to the karma numbers on lesswrong.com","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T18:01:54.044Z","2020-11-13T17:04:08.842Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will any LessWrong post made on Friday 11/20 get more than 100 karma by 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",15,"YES","marcin.kowrygo","Amanda N","","Resolution: This post got >100 karma in the specified time period: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JLrnbThMyCYDBa6Gu/embedded-interactive-predictions-on-lesswrong-2

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
The post must be made between 12:01am PST and 11:59pm PST on Fri 11/20.
Resolves according to the karma numbers on lesswrong.com","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T17:19:04.527Z","2020-11-13T17:04:08.842Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will any LessWrong post made on Friday 11/20 get more than 100 karma by 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",10,"YES","Will B","Amanda N","","Resolution: This post got >100 karma in the specified time period: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JLrnbThMyCYDBa6Gu/embedded-interactive-predictions-on-lesswrong-2

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
The post must be made between 12:01am PST and 11:59pm PST on Fri 11/20.
Resolves according to the karma numbers on lesswrong.com","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T00:47:31.768Z","2020-11-13T17:04:08.842Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen",85,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-21T01:56:05.000Z","2011-08-20T23:04:44.000Z","2021-08-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen",55,,"Sandra Åhlén","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-21T03:47:02.000Z","2011-08-20T23:04:44.000Z","2021-08-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen",60,,"anonym","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-23T06:05:14.000Z","2011-08-20T23:04:44.000Z","2021-08-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen",90,,"NickN","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-22T14:05:48.963Z","2011-08-20T23:04:44.000Z","2021-08-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen",80,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-20T23:04:44.000Z","2011-08-20T23:04:44.000Z","2021-08-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen",83,,"bobpage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-20T23:16:37.000Z","2011-08-20T23:04:44.000Z","2021-08-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen",65,,"JoshuaZ","gwern","One issue that may come up is the blurring line between different types of technology. The line between small computer and smart phone may not be clear in 10 years. This thought is making me downgrade my confidence. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-21T04:05:15.000Z","2011-08-20T23:04:44.000Z","2021-08-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen",90,,"Konkvistador","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-30T21:32:03.000Z","2011-08-20T23:04:44.000Z","2021-08-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen",80,,"Anubhav","gwern","Not sure I understand Joshua's concerns. Easy way to fix what I think he meant: Count handheld computers as smartphones.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-21T16:15:47.000Z","2011-08-20T23:04:44.000Z","2021-08-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen",84,,"themusicgod1","gwern","6b with cellphones, 1b+ smartphones sold/year 2013 was one upgrade cycle away from this happening.  http://newsfeed.time.com/2013/03/25/more-people-have-cell-phones-than-toilets-u-n-study-shows/",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T01:59:21.000Z","2011-08-20T23:04:44.000Z","2021-08-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen",90,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-03T21:47:51.489Z","2011-08-20T23:04:44.000Z","2021-08-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen",40,,"amadeu","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-07T20:15:12.741Z","2011-08-20T23:04:44.000Z","2021-08-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.",20,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-11T16:08:49.000Z","2011-09-11T16:08:48.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.",50,,"Robert Kosten","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-11T17:54:14.000Z","2011-09-11T16:08:48.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.",25,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-11T18:18:07.000Z","2011-09-11T16:08:48.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.",25,,"bobpage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-11T23:13:27.000Z","2011-09-11T16:08:48.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.",25,,"Ken","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-12T23:07:34.000Z","2011-09-11T16:08:48.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.",30,,"gimpf","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-13T10:57:25.000Z","2011-09-11T16:08:48.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.",65,,"Leo","gwern","You mean ""no pro athlete will"", no ""some pro athlete won't"", right? They'll ban it.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-26T15:06:06.000Z","2011-09-11T16:08:48.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.",35,,"RandomThinker","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-05T01:05:06.000Z","2011-09-11T16:08:48.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.",30,,"army1987","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-05T11:58:18.000Z","2011-09-11T16:08:48.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T02:35:55.000Z","2011-09-11T16:08:48.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.",70,,"pranomostro","gwern","I guess that will fall under doping.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:36:47.586Z","2011-09-11T16:08:48.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030",15,,"btrettel","InquilineKea","http://www.gallup.com/poll/156215/consider-themselves-vegetarians.aspx 5-6% of people in the U.S. are vegetarian, and this has been stable since 1999. I assume all or the vast majority of vegans said they were vegetarian in the survey.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-12T17:38:07.000Z","2015-07-11T20:49:38.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030",32,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-12T19:14:10.000Z","2015-07-11T20:49:38.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030",35,,"EloiseRosen","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-14T01:33:54.000Z","2015-07-11T20:49:38.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030",26,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T20:14:02.184Z","2015-07-11T20:49:38.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030",35,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T20:49:38.000Z","2015-07-11T20:49:38.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030",30,,"sdr","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-14T19:51:46.000Z","2015-07-11T20:49:38.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030",25,,"David","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-15T15:03:50.000Z","2015-07-11T20:49:38.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","InquilineKea","Meat is part of the Western culture. Unless you are predicting the rise of Buddhism or Hinduism over Christianity in this time period, such a radical change can't happen without a good reason behind it. No such reason was given.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-19T03:53:04.000Z","2015-07-11T20:49:38.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030",42,,"RoryS","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-19T10:13:32.000Z","2015-07-11T20:49:38.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030",8,,"ZeitPolizei","InquilineKea","According to vrg.org vegetarianism in the USA has risen from 1% in 1994 to 3.4% in 2015, with a larger proportion of young people being vegetarian. Assuming people remain vegetarian as they grow older, vegetarianism will continue to rise (slowly).",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-25T17:01:48.000Z","2015-07-11T20:49:38.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030",56,,"supinf","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-31T00:43:12.000Z","2015-07-11T20:49:38.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030",45,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-10T00:18:21.000Z","2015-07-11T20:49:38.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023",80,,"faws","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-26T13:32:06.000Z","2011-09-25T17:54:49.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023",90,,"JFE","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-01T14:38:38.000Z","2011-09-25T17:54:49.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023",3,,"NickN","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T06:59:38.264Z","2011-09-25T17:54:49.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-25T17:54:50.000Z","2011-09-25T17:54:49.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023",58,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-25T18:01:04.000Z","2011-09-25T17:54:49.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023",50,,"Robert Kosten","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-04T20:25:45.000Z","2011-09-25T17:54:49.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023",69,,"bobpage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-04T21:41:28.000Z","2011-09-25T17:54:49.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023",30,,"JFE","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-11T08:36:58.000Z","2011-09-25T17:54:49.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023",25,,"RandomThinker","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-11T08:57:10.000Z","2011-09-25T17:54:49.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023",56,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T20:47:16.000Z","2011-09-25T17:54:49.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023",80,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:29:33.712Z","2011-09-25T17:54:49.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T02:57:01.000Z","2011-09-25T17:54:49.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023",90,,"amadeu","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-07T20:02:19.576Z","2011-09-25T17:54:49.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.",82,,"Ben Pace","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T05:55:52.042Z","2021-01-09T06:39:52.381Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.",85,,"Ben Pace","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T05:55:43.054Z","2021-01-09T06:39:52.381Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.",50,,"ejacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T00:03:10.679Z","2021-01-09T06:39:52.381Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.",90,,"Zvi","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T21:59:58.504Z","2021-01-09T06:39:52.381Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.",75,,"Eli Lifland","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T20:38:16.434Z","2021-01-09T06:39:52.381Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.",67,,"hamnox","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T20:39:17.937Z","2021-01-09T06:39:52.381Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.",89,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T19:25:55.106Z","2021-01-09T06:39:52.381Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.",42,,"D0TheMath","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T17:16:45.927Z","2021-01-09T06:39:52.381Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.",60,,"NunoSempere","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:38:11.620Z","2021-01-09T06:39:52.381Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.",91,,"deluks917","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:47:56.851Z","2021-01-09T06:39:52.381Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.",85,,"ChristianKl","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T12:26:00.900Z","2021-01-09T06:39:52.381Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.",92,,"Benjamin Rachbach","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:27:02.554Z","2021-01-09T06:39:52.381Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.",90,,"deluks917","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:45:39.451Z","2021-01-09T06:39:52.381Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",31,,"deluks917","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T03:44:41.060Z","2021-01-09T06:38:11.454Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",5,,"pepe_prime","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T02:36:23.065Z","2021-01-09T06:38:11.454Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",11,,"pepe_prime","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T02:36:20.235Z","2021-01-09T06:38:11.454Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",14,,"Polytopos","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T00:28:05.817Z","2021-01-09T06:38:11.454Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",65,,"ejacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T00:02:25.668Z","2021-01-09T06:38:11.454Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",27,,"Zvi","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T21:59:05.534Z","2021-01-09T06:38:11.454Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",30,,"Zvi","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T21:59:04.802Z","2021-01-09T06:38:11.454Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",31,,"Zvi","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T21:59:02.119Z","2021-01-09T06:38:11.454Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",10,,"habryka","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T19:36:23.778Z","2021-01-09T06:38:11.454Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",55,,"Benjamin Rachbach","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:25:56.235Z","2021-01-09T06:38:11.454Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",59,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T19:24:26.684Z","2021-01-09T06:38:11.454Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",50,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T19:24:18.526Z","2021-01-09T06:38:11.454Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",40,,"NunoSempere","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:37:23.979Z","2021-01-09T06:38:11.454Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",50,,"NunoSempere","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T10:37:18.889Z","2021-01-09T06:38:11.454Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",65,,"deluks917","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:47:45.687Z","2021-01-09T06:38:11.454Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",64,,"deluks917","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:47:44.364Z","2021-01-09T06:38:11.454Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",60,,"deluks917","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:47:43.137Z","2021-01-09T06:38:11.454Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",56,,"deluks917","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:47:40.311Z","2021-01-09T06:38:11.454Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",59,,"deluks917","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:47:38.517Z","2021-01-09T06:38:11.454Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",60,,"deluks917","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:47:36.942Z","2021-01-09T06:38:11.454Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",55,,"deluks917","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:47:34.358Z","2021-01-09T06:38:11.454Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",60,,"deluks917","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T09:47:30.964Z","2021-01-09T06:38:11.454Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",50,,"Geoffrey Wood","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:37:24.732Z","2021-01-09T06:38:11.454Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",64,,"Oskar Mathiasen","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T12:08:35.785Z","2021-01-09T06:38:11.454Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",15,,"Andrea D","alexrjl","Abolition of legal slavery as a base rate. ","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CT01uCBtzA-SyIr-kOkm8qQER-r829C3leZzwCZdJ6E/edit","LSE Arete workshop","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-06T19:12:19.411Z","2020-12-06T18:57:26.850Z","2100-12-06T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",37,,"alexrjl","alexrjl","https://www.getguesstimate.com/models/17392","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CT01uCBtzA-SyIr-kOkm8qQER-r829C3leZzwCZdJ6E/edit","LSE Arete workshop","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-06T19:12:27.217Z","2020-12-06T18:57:26.850Z","2100-12-06T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",3,,"Sami P","alexrjl","It's far less likely that zero factory farms will exist than very few - only one of the c200 countries needs to legalise it for there to be a negative resolution to this question. Looking at an extremely rough reference class, even the abolition of slavery is not accepted by every single country on earth. However, meat substitutes are already coming about and will plausibly become cheaper over time. If they keep getting cheaper such that they cost less than factory-farmed meat, this could really increase the probability that factory farming will not exist (legally or not).","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CT01uCBtzA-SyIr-kOkm8qQER-r829C3leZzwCZdJ6E/edit","LSE Arete workshop","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-06T19:12:29.352Z","2020-12-06T18:57:26.850Z","2100-12-06T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",65,,"Rishane D","alexrjl","1. Regulations for standards in factory farms are becoming increasingly stringent (eg: how much land area a given animal has is legally required to have). This indicates a trend towards increasing moral concern for animals in factory farms. 

2. The importance of wet markets in the creation and spread of COVID-19 is likely to negatively influence public opinion towards factory farms.","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CT01uCBtzA-SyIr-kOkm8qQER-r829C3leZzwCZdJ6E/edit","LSE Arete workshop","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-06T19:12:32.342Z","2020-12-06T18:57:26.850Z","2100-12-06T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",25,,"Kathy L","alexrjl","Factors: Will governments exist in their current form? Percent of public in support? Will all nations create individual laws? Will there be a world mandate? Will farmers/corporations follow the law?","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CT01uCBtzA-SyIr-kOkm8qQER-r829C3leZzwCZdJ6E/edit","LSE Arete workshop","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-06T19:12:40.462Z","2020-12-06T18:57:26.850Z","2100-12-06T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",70,,"Matthew A","alexrjl","Will depend on factors such as the costs of conventionally and artificially produced animal products, people's attitudes towards factory farming, and climate change.","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CT01uCBtzA-SyIr-kOkm8qQER-r829C3leZzwCZdJ6E/edit","LSE Arete workshop","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-06T19:12:52.703Z","2020-12-06T18:57:26.850Z","2100-12-06T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",30,,"Matthew A","alexrjl","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CT01uCBtzA-SyIr-kOkm8qQER-r829C3leZzwCZdJ6E/edit","LSE Arete workshop","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-06T19:13:10.318Z","2020-12-06T18:57:26.850Z","2100-12-06T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",40,,"R. L","alexrjl","10% base civilizational collapse rate (close to 100% conditional on this), 60% chance lab grown meat is competitive and 40% chance conditional on this that this is sufficient. (ran out of time): vaguely just guessed 5% unconditional on both","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CT01uCBtzA-SyIr-kOkm8qQER-r829C3leZzwCZdJ6E/edit","LSE Arete workshop","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-06T19:12:29.363Z","2020-12-06T18:57:26.850Z","2100-12-06T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",10,,"Eponine H","alexrjl","Depends on producing artificial meat etc. and trust.","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CT01uCBtzA-SyIr-kOkm8qQER-r829C3leZzwCZdJ6E/edit","LSE Arete workshop","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-06T19:14:27.201Z","2020-12-06T18:57:26.850Z","2100-12-06T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",55,,"Jake F","alexrjl","First factory farmed chicken in 1923. Countries including Switzerland start banning 100 years later.","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CT01uCBtzA-SyIr-kOkm8qQER-r829C3leZzwCZdJ6E/edit","LSE Arete workshop","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-06T19:13:12.841Z","2020-12-06T18:57:26.850Z","2100-12-06T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",12,,"Emily F","alexrjl","What is the probability that cellular agriculture technology is as good as meat by 2100
- what is the probability that the general public accepts alternatives to meat
90% * 50% * 25%


What is the probability that a crisis happens due to factory farming that significantly disrupts public perception of factory farming?
- pandemic worse than COVID
- war that cuts meat supply
1% * 90%","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CT01uCBtzA-SyIr-kOkm8qQER-r829C3leZzwCZdJ6E/edit","LSE Arete workshop","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-06T19:14:51.786Z","2020-12-06T18:57:26.850Z","2100-12-06T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",25,,"Sami P","alexrjl","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CT01uCBtzA-SyIr-kOkm8qQER-r829C3leZzwCZdJ6E/edit","LSE Arete workshop","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-06T19:20:09.624Z","2020-12-06T18:57:26.850Z","2100-12-06T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",25,,"Jake F","alexrjl","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CT01uCBtzA-SyIr-kOkm8qQER-r829C3leZzwCZdJ6E/edit","LSE Arete workshop","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-06T19:20:16.686Z","2020-12-06T18:57:26.850Z","2100-12-06T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",7,,"Kathy L","alexrjl","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CT01uCBtzA-SyIr-kOkm8qQER-r829C3leZzwCZdJ6E/edit","LSE Arete workshop","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-06T19:20:17.597Z","2020-12-06T18:57:26.850Z","2100-12-06T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",20,,"Matthew A","alexrjl","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CT01uCBtzA-SyIr-kOkm8qQER-r829C3leZzwCZdJ6E/edit","LSE Arete workshop","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-06T19:20:21.865Z","2020-12-06T18:57:26.850Z","2100-12-06T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",20,,"Andrea D","alexrjl","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CT01uCBtzA-SyIr-kOkm8qQER-r829C3leZzwCZdJ6E/edit","LSE Arete workshop","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-06T19:20:23.169Z","2020-12-06T18:57:26.850Z","2100-12-06T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",30,,"alexrjl","alexrjl","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CT01uCBtzA-SyIr-kOkm8qQER-r829C3leZzwCZdJ6E/edit","LSE Arete workshop","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-06T19:20:37.018Z","2020-12-06T18:57:26.850Z","2100-12-06T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",8,,"Emily F","alexrjl","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CT01uCBtzA-SyIr-kOkm8qQER-r829C3leZzwCZdJ6E/edit","LSE Arete workshop","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-06T19:20:41.814Z","2020-12-06T18:57:26.850Z","2100-12-06T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",8,,"Emily F","alexrjl","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CT01uCBtzA-SyIr-kOkm8qQER-r829C3leZzwCZdJ6E/edit","LSE Arete workshop","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-06T19:20:44.604Z","2020-12-06T18:57:26.850Z","2100-12-06T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",0.05,,"Sam G","alexrjl","All 193 countries need to pass, and no matter how globalised clean meat is produced, if will struggle to infiltrate small rural communities","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CT01uCBtzA-SyIr-kOkm8qQER-r829C3leZzwCZdJ6E/edit","LSE Arete workshop","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-06T19:12:54.450Z","2020-12-06T18:57:26.850Z","2100-12-06T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",35,,"Rishane D","alexrjl","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CT01uCBtzA-SyIr-kOkm8qQER-r829C3leZzwCZdJ6E/edit","LSE Arete workshop","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-06T19:20:47.896Z","2020-12-06T18:57:26.850Z","2100-12-06T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",20,,"R. L","alexrjl","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CT01uCBtzA-SyIr-kOkm8qQER-r829C3leZzwCZdJ6E/edit","LSE Arete workshop","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-06T19:20:52.567Z","2020-12-06T18:57:26.850Z","2100-12-06T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",1,,"Eponine H","alexrjl","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CT01uCBtzA-SyIr-kOkm8qQER-r829C3leZzwCZdJ6E/edit","LSE Arete workshop","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-06T19:20:58.051Z","2020-12-06T18:57:26.850Z","2100-12-06T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",0,,"R. L","alexrjl","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CT01uCBtzA-SyIr-kOkm8qQER-r829C3leZzwCZdJ6E/edit","LSE Arete workshop","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-06T19:08:42.181Z","2020-12-06T18:57:26.850Z","2100-12-06T00:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson",4,,"Pablo","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-02T03:07:02.000Z","2012-05-19T02:31:32.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson",5,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-19T02:31:32.000Z","2012-05-19T02:31:32.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson",2,,"Ken","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-21T20:16:55.000Z","2012-05-19T02:31:32.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson",3,,"Emanuel Rylke","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-24T14:39:26.000Z","2012-05-19T02:31:32.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson",47,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T00:54:42.000Z","2012-05-19T02:31:32.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson",2,,"RandomThinker","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-19T04:26:26.000Z","2012-05-19T02:31:32.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson",5,,"Jayson Virissimo","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-22T02:33:50.000Z","2012-05-19T02:31:32.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson",15,,"Ben Doherty","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-30T23:38:07.000Z","2012-05-19T02:31:32.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson",0,,"Tuxedage","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-06-10T03:57:31.000Z","2012-05-19T02:31:32.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson",2,,"seifip","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-14T09:56:51.000Z","2012-05-19T02:31:32.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson",3,,"bobpage","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-16T05:02:33.000Z","2012-05-19T02:31:32.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.",1,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1","Conjunction fallacy at work. (Specific difficult tech and specific corporation). Related predictions: ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T02:05:22.000Z","2011-11-17T01:27:19.000Z","2025-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.",0,,"Anubhav","Harbinger1","Too soon. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T04:15:51.000Z","2011-11-17T01:27:19.000Z","2025-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.",1,,"lavalamp","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T17:05:11.000Z","2011-11-17T01:27:19.000Z","2025-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.",4,,"gwern","Harbinger1","note that I will judge this as for general quantum computation, not a specific restricted quantum algorithm like quantum annealing (which is what D-Wave is doing)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-06T17:55:34.000Z","2011-11-17T01:27:19.000Z","2025-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.",75,,"Harbinger1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T01:27:19.000Z","2011-11-17T01:27:19.000Z","2025-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.",2,,"gwern","Harbinger1","let's say 60% done at all per previous predictions; 25% commercialized (no quantum commericalized yet!); then 10% *Intel* is the first to market as opposed to actual quantum computer company = (0.6 * 0.25 * 0.1) * 100 = 1.5%, round to 2%",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T17:38:33.000Z","2011-11-17T01:27:19.000Z","2025-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.",1,,"Anubhav","Harbinger1","Revise upward as per gwern, but I think the 60% is too optimistic. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-18T02:56:31.000Z","2011-11-17T01:27:19.000Z","2025-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.",1,,"Emanuel Rylke","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-29T15:02:02.000Z","2011-11-17T01:27:19.000Z","2025-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.",2,,"RandomThinker","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-29T17:46:25.000Z","2011-11-17T01:27:19.000Z","2025-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.",3,,"bobpage","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-16T04:58:58.000Z","2011-11-17T01:27:19.000Z","2025-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.",47,,"themusicgod1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T21:49:50.000Z","2011-11-17T01:27:19.000Z","2025-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.",2,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:47:11.000Z","2011-11-17T01:27:19.000Z","2025-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.",1,,"pranomostro","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:15:59.427Z","2011-11-17T01:27:19.000Z","2025-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.",0,,"deleteyourbrain","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:22:49.463Z","2011-11-17T01:27:19.000Z","2025-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ",0,,"lavalamp","Harbinger1","over my dead body...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T17:04:49.000Z","2011-11-17T01:32:15.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ",0,,"gwern","Harbinger1","very few religions even discourage it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caffeine#Religion no country bans it. I doubt even the mormons would outlaw it even if they took over the world",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T17:41:24.000Z","2011-11-17T01:32:15.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ",1,,"stephenh","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-19T20:56:28.000Z","2011-11-17T01:32:15.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ",3,,"themusicgod1","Harbinger1","they better get organized fast.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T21:50:40.000Z","2011-11-17T01:32:15.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ",0,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:46:05.000Z","2011-11-17T01:32:15.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ",60,,"Harbinger1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T01:32:15.000Z","2011-11-17T01:32:15.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ",0,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1","Yeah... Not happening. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T04:12:45.000Z","2011-11-17T01:32:15.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ",0,,"Anubhav","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T04:15:29.000Z","2011-11-17T01:32:15.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ",0,,"Isaac","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-18T03:18:36.000Z","2011-11-17T01:32:15.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ",1,,"pranomostro","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:44:35.440Z","2011-11-17T01:32:15.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ",0,,"Baeboo","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T04:33:55.638Z","2011-11-17T01:32:15.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ",0,,"deleteyourbrain","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:20:35.688Z","2011-11-17T01:32:15.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",60,,"Pablo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T13:54:24.000Z","2012-10-01T13:54:24.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",50,,"gwern","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T19:27:53.000Z","2012-10-01T13:54:24.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",50,,"chemotaxis101","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-13T17:44:53.000Z","2012-10-01T13:54:24.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",30,,"Qiaochu","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-12-06T09:38:35.000Z","2012-10-01T13:54:24.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",30,,"anonym","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-30T04:38:28.000Z","2012-10-01T13:54:24.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",10,,"JoshuaZ","Pablo","Random: Yes, but there's been a lot more progress on this sort of problem than there has been on RH. See the successful proof ot the odd primes version for example. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-02T02:58:19.000Z","2012-10-01T13:54:24.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",38,,"pranomostro","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:33:46.071Z","2012-10-01T13:54:24.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",15,,"RandomThinker","Pablo","No special knowledge, but I think Goldbach is harder / will take longer than Riemann since less people work on it.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-02T07:34:20.000Z","2012-10-01T13:54:24.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",5,,"onthestairs","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-02T10:57:11.000Z","2012-10-01T13:54:24.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",30,,"rebellionkid","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-01T12:45:02.000Z","2012-10-01T13:54:24.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",30,,"Baeboo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T02:26:47.714Z","2012-10-01T13:54:24.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",25,,"Pablo","Pablo","Upon further reflection, I'm lowering my estimate.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T16:08:33.000Z","2012-10-01T14:21:44.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",50,,"Pablo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T14:21:44.000Z","2012-10-01T14:21:44.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",70,,"Medea","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-11T08:49:16.138Z","2012-10-01T14:21:44.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",80,,"smijer","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-19T17:05:54.000Z","2012-10-01T14:21:44.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",75,,"pranomostro","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:29:53.131Z","2012-10-01T14:21:44.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",85,,"pranomostro","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:30:01.439Z","2012-10-01T14:21:44.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",79,,"Baeboo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-12T05:11:00.493Z","2012-10-01T14:21:44.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",75,,"JoshuaZ","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-11T20:09:49.858Z","2012-10-01T14:21:44.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",70,,"gwern","Pablo","machine translation is already pretty good even with no AGI; somewhat likely AGI will be created by 2040 likely establishing superiority then and there; regular data sets only keep growing; 30+ years of tweaking can do a lot.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T19:32:05.000Z","2012-10-01T14:21:44.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",35,,"RandomThinker","Pablo","The biggest risk is that ""human"" translation performance falls as people economize and third world students labor + machines.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-02T07:33:23.000Z","2012-10-01T14:21:44.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",55,,"chemotaxis101","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-13T17:42:37.000Z","2012-10-01T14:21:44.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",50,,"Qiaochu","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-12-06T09:42:23.000Z","2012-10-01T14:21:44.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",96,,"themusicgod1","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:35:56.000Z","2012-10-01T14:21:44.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",78,,"Baeboo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T02:30:31.974Z","2012-10-01T14:21:44.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",80,,"Pablo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T14:15:14.000Z","2012-10-01T14:15:14.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",0,,"NickN","Pablo","Assuming that the place where this standard will be established, or not, is the whole world, if humans still exist they will be too poor to support such a standard.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T02:28:55.181Z","2012-10-01T14:15:14.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",75,,"Baeboo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-15T21:45:59.277Z","2012-10-01T14:15:14.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",30,,"qznc","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-15T18:28:00.351Z","2012-10-01T14:15:14.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",80,,"chemotaxis101","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-13T17:43:16.000Z","2012-10-01T14:15:14.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",80,,"smijer","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-19T16:56:23.000Z","2012-10-01T14:15:14.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",95,,"Qiaochu","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-12-06T09:41:09.000Z","2012-10-01T14:15:14.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",54,,"themusicgod1","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:34:05.000Z","2012-10-01T14:15:14.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",80,,"pranomostro","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:30:43.501Z","2012-10-01T14:15:14.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",75,,"gwern","Pablo","not entirely clear on what DNA testing is in this context; I agree most/all will have their genomes sequenced by this point, but what else?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T19:30:37.000Z","2012-10-01T14:15:14.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",95,,"JFE","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-10T18:37:21.000Z","2012-10-01T14:15:14.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",80,,"Baeboo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T02:29:22.725Z","2012-10-01T14:15:14.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045",60,,"lavalamp","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T16:49:10.000Z","2011-11-17T02:59:19.000Z","2046-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045",45,,"gwern","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T20:26:51.000Z","2011-11-17T02:59:19.000Z","2046-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045",70,,"Porejide","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-22T01:06:19.000Z","2011-11-17T02:59:19.000Z","2046-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045",55,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T02:59:19.000Z","2011-11-17T02:59:19.000Z","2046-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045",0,,"Harbinger1","JoshuaZ","Will happen sooner.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T04:23:42.000Z","2011-11-17T02:59:19.000Z","2046-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045",100,,"Anubhav","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T05:14:31.000Z","2011-11-17T02:59:19.000Z","2046-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045",50,,"kilobug","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-18T17:08:14.000Z","2011-11-17T02:59:19.000Z","2046-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045",58,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T22:09:24.000Z","2011-11-17T02:59:19.000Z","2046-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045",52,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T00:05:24.000Z","2011-11-17T02:59:19.000Z","2046-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045",35,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:15:25.948Z","2011-11-17T02:59:19.000Z","2046-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045",58,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T21:11:47.321Z","2011-11-17T02:59:19.000Z","2046-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045",100,,"deleteyourbrain","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:20:49.795Z","2011-11-17T02:59:19.000Z","2046-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045",58,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T19:05:08.502Z","2011-11-17T02:59:19.000Z","2046-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045",55,,"Baeboo","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-27T05:08:51.389Z","2011-11-17T02:59:19.000Z","2046-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040",60,,"Pablo","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-06T05:58:35.000Z","2012-10-05T03:40:55.000Z","2040-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040",60,,"Pablo","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-06T05:59:29.000Z","2012-10-05T03:40:55.000Z","2040-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040",60,,"Pablo","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-08T00:40:02.000Z","2012-10-05T03:40:55.000Z","2040-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040",80,,"NathanMcKnight","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-05T14:06:55.000Z","2012-10-05T03:40:55.000Z","2040-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040",60,,"gwern","RandomThinker","too tempting, too much preliminary work",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-06T02:00:34.000Z","2012-10-05T03:40:55.000Z","2040-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040",5,,"sharanga","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-10T05:49:47.000Z","2012-10-05T03:40:55.000Z","2040-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040",60,,"kilobug","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-10T08:00:05.000Z","2012-10-05T03:40:55.000Z","2040-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040",55,,"beo_shaffer","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-15T04:48:43.000Z","2012-10-05T03:40:55.000Z","2040-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040",55,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker","Might happen much faster.  Still getting press:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/02/magazine/the-mammoth-cometh.html",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-03-04T06:39:59.000Z","2012-10-05T03:40:55.000Z","2040-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040",40,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-05T03:40:55.000Z","2012-10-05T03:40:55.000Z","2040-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040",55,,"JoshuaZ","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-08T17:28:26.000Z","2012-10-05T03:40:55.000Z","2040-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040",79,,"JFE","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-10T18:33:21.000Z","2012-10-05T03:40:55.000Z","2040-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040",55,,"chemotaxis101","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-13T17:30:21.000Z","2012-10-05T03:40:55.000Z","2040-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040",54,,"themusicgod1","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:41:53.000Z","2012-10-05T03:40:55.000Z","2040-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ",0,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1","Conjunction fallacy- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conjunction_fallacy . ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T04:23:24.000Z","2011-11-17T04:20:09.000Z","2023-07-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ",0,,"Jayson Virissimo","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T06:03:46.000Z","2011-11-17T04:20:09.000Z","2023-07-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ",0,,"gwern","Harbinger1","there would have to be a revolutionary technology to make any mars colony...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T20:29:03.000Z","2011-11-17T04:20:09.000Z","2023-07-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ",0,,"Isaac","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-18T03:24:37.000Z","2011-11-17T04:20:09.000Z","2023-07-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ",0,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T00:54:07.000Z","2011-11-17T04:20:09.000Z","2023-07-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ",2,,"pranomostro","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:46:36.358Z","2011-11-17T04:20:09.000Z","2023-07-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ",0,,"deleteyourbrain","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:24:46.883Z","2011-11-17T04:20:09.000Z","2023-07-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ",75,,"Harbinger1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T04:20:09.000Z","2011-11-17T04:20:09.000Z","2023-07-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ",0,,"Anubhav","Harbinger1","Harbinger, the future is not whatever golden age sci-fi novel you're carrying in your head right now. PLEASE look up the conjunction fallacy. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T04:50:23.000Z","2011-11-17T04:20:09.000Z","2023-07-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ",0,,"Emanuel Rylke","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-29T14:59:38.000Z","2011-11-17T04:20:09.000Z","2023-07-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ",39,,"themusicgod1","Harbinger1","if trump annexes canada, musk gets to mars, and tech drops out of that...maybe",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T22:15:18.000Z","2011-11-17T04:20:09.000Z","2023-07-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ",0,,"pranomostro","Harbinger1","Saw the resolve date",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:46:57.809Z","2011-11-17T04:20:09.000Z","2023-07-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ",0,,"Baeboo","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T04:36:38.535Z","2011-11-17T04:20:09.000Z","2023-07-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.",2,,"pranomostro","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-10T21:05:19.055Z","2010-09-16T15:23:50.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.",5,,"kmcharliecat","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-26T03:13:26.000Z","2010-09-16T15:23:50.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.",1,,"NathanMcKnight","TheScholar","Ok. 1% chance to cover the possibility of human extinction. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T23:48:31.000Z","2010-09-16T15:23:50.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.",0,,"NathanMcKnight","TheScholar","Hard to measure. Zero political influence? All over the world in 14 years? Not possible. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T23:46:10.000Z","2010-09-16T15:23:50.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.",5,,"themusicgod1","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T23:42:44.000Z","2010-09-16T15:23:50.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.",5,,"Anubhav","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-12T13:47:48.000Z","2010-09-16T15:23:50.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.",1,,"JoshuaZ","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-14T15:54:24.000Z","2010-09-16T15:23:50.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.",1,,"Jack","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-10T07:44:56.000Z","2010-09-16T15:23:50.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.",15,,"kmcharliecat","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-26T03:12:40.000Z","2010-09-16T15:23:50.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.",1,,"benwr","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-11T18:29:12.000Z","2010-09-16T15:23:50.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.",2,,"JoshuaZ","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-29T00:08:15.000Z","2010-09-16T15:23:50.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.",5,,"divide","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-29T23:20:37.000Z","2010-09-16T15:23:50.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.",1,,"gwern","TheScholar","so this effectively=a strong Singularity will happen and everyone will become AI or cease to exist. Because Africa will not be atheist in our lifetime...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-16T17:36:27.000Z","2010-09-16T15:23:50.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.",100,,"TheScholar","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-16T15:23:54.000Z","2010-09-16T15:23:50.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”",30,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T15:02:30.927Z","2010-08-02T06:36:55.000Z","2050-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”",40,,"regex","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-22T04:57:34.000Z","2010-08-02T06:36:55.000Z","2050-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T22:56:40.000Z","2010-08-02T06:36:55.000Z","2050-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”",40,,"PlacidPlatypus","gwern","I think in general it's better to phrase predictions positively than negatively.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-21T19:04:53.000Z","2010-08-02T06:36:55.000Z","2050-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”",80,,"Raahul_Kumar","gwern","It says net energy and produces electricity for the grid.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-21T08:45:00.000Z","2010-08-02T06:36:55.000Z","2050-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”",75,,"btrettel","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-04T18:38:15.000Z","2010-08-02T06:36:55.000Z","2050-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”",15,,"Tuxedage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-12-31T22:48:33.000Z","2010-08-02T06:36:55.000Z","2050-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-02T06:36:55.000Z","2010-08-02T06:36:55.000Z","2050-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”",35,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T14:08:21.595Z","2010-08-02T06:36:55.000Z","2050-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”",35,,"davatk","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-26T16:30:29.000Z","2010-08-02T06:36:55.000Z","2050-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”",40,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-24T18:01:43.000Z","2010-08-02T06:36:55.000Z","2050-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.",32,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T15:18:40.490Z","2010-08-02T06:23:47.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.",15,,"seifip","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-14T09:57:46.000Z","2010-08-02T06:23:47.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.",55,,"Ken","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-12T23:38:06.000Z","2010-08-02T06:23:47.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.",40,,"Larks","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-29T22:00:15.000Z","2010-08-02T06:23:47.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-02T06:23:47.000Z","2010-08-02T06:23:47.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.",90,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-25T12:47:10.619Z","2010-08-02T06:23:47.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.",40,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T14:14:20.632Z","2010-08-02T06:23:47.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:16:20.000Z","2010-08-02T06:23:47.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.",45,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-17T04:37:11.000Z","2010-08-02T06:23:47.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.",45,,"NathanMcKnight","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-07T21:32:54.000Z","2010-08-02T06:23:47.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.",50,,"gimpf","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-13T10:53:12.000Z","2010-08-02T06:23:47.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.",5,,"bobpage","gwern","Wikipedia says the plan is ""[...] a crewed phase in 2040-2060"" but this prediction is dependent on no early singularity, China existing in a similar form, people still being interested in landing people on planets",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-13T02:05:51.000Z","2010-08-02T06:23:47.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.",30,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-02T06:24:00.000Z","2010-08-02T06:23:47.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.",1,,"Baeboo","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T03:15:49.509Z","2012-01-21T01:34:54.000Z","2021-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.",20,,"Anubhav","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-21T01:34:54.000Z","2012-01-21T01:34:54.000Z","2021-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.",20,,"muflax","Anubhav","might get a bit tricky if they split / rename themselves etc., but The FAI Charity Formally Known As SIAI shouldn't undergo too much factionalization",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-21T02:13:14.000Z","2012-01-21T01:34:54.000Z","2021-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.",2,,"Grognor","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-21T07:05:53.000Z","2012-01-21T01:34:54.000Z","2021-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.",15,,"gwern","Anubhav","I don't think charities relocate very often, and England is taken by FHI. so this is more a bet of shutting down",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-21T16:04:44.000Z","2012-01-21T01:34:54.000Z","2021-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.",10,,"Leo","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-27T01:27:48.000Z","2012-01-21T01:34:54.000Z","2021-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.",8,,"Nic_Smith","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-28T19:06:55.000Z","2012-01-21T01:34:54.000Z","2021-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.",25,,"chemotaxis101","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-07-01T15:42:46.000Z","2012-01-21T01:34:54.000Z","2021-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.",13,,"Tuxedage","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-03T19:38:08.000Z","2012-01-21T01:34:54.000Z","2021-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.",42,,"themusicgod1","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-14T05:55:47.000Z","2012-01-21T01:34:54.000Z","2021-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.",5,,"pranomostro","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T00:22:38.667Z","2012-01-21T01:34:54.000Z","2021-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.",3,,"Baeboo","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T05:27:42.911Z","2012-01-21T01:34:54.000Z","2021-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""",0,,"deleteyourbrain","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:12:48.623Z","2010-07-29T18:25:30.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""",55,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-16T02:10:05.337Z","2010-07-29T18:25:30.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""",90,,"Malgidus","gwern","Excluding cryonics. Excluding definitions of ""human"". Taking 10% off for existential risk.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-27T20:40:20.000Z","2010-07-29T18:25:30.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""",40,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-28T09:37:44.000Z","2010-07-29T18:25:30.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""",25,,"RandomThinker","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-27T21:47:13.000Z","2010-07-29T18:25:30.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""",80,,"JoshuaZ","gwern","Less optimistic. Longevity techs seems to be running into a lot of problems. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-27T17:43:50.000Z","2010-07-29T18:25:30.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""",60,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T08:52:33.000Z","2010-07-29T18:25:30.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""",90,,"JoshuaZ","gwern","I meant ""obvious candidates are people born between 1990 and 2000"". ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-26T15:48:02.000Z","2010-07-29T18:25:30.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""",90,,"JoshuaZ","gwern","Obvious candidates are people between 1900 and 2000. That's a lot of people. And medicine is improving. Only need one. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-24T18:11:54.000Z","2010-07-29T18:25:30.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""",50,,"Pablo","gwern","Steve Austad made a very similar prediction: http://classic.the-scientist.com/?articles.view/articleNo/13240/",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T16:48:46.000Z","2010-07-29T18:25:30.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""",40,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-15T21:51:26.975Z","2010-07-29T18:25:30.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""",47,,"faws","gwern","The adverb ""still"" seems to exclude cryonics.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-18T16:18:16.000Z","2010-07-29T18:25:30.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""",90,,"Anubhav","gwern","Reevaluated probability of apocalypse.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T12:59:33.000Z","2010-07-29T18:25:30.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""",30,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-29T18:25:30.000Z","2010-07-29T18:25:30.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""",3,,"Mati Roy","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-28T18:40:12.000Z","2015-03-25T17:22:47.000Z","2033-03-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""",15,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-25T17:22:47.000Z","2015-03-25T17:22:47.000Z","2033-03-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""",10,,"timujin","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-26T20:27:12.000Z","2015-03-25T17:22:47.000Z","2033-03-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""",25,,"EloiseRosen","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-27T21:54:21.000Z","2015-03-25T17:22:47.000Z","2033-03-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""",1,,"btrettel","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-24T02:11:17.000Z","2015-03-25T17:22:47.000Z","2033-03-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""",25,,"timujin","JoshuaZ","Recent advancements make me reconsider this.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-29T11:10:24.000Z","2015-03-25T17:22:47.000Z","2033-03-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""",2,,"Unknowns","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-25T19:55:34.000Z","2015-03-25T17:22:47.000Z","2033-03-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""",5,,"ProfessorPangloss","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-27T01:34:39.000Z","2015-03-25T17:22:47.000Z","2033-03-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""",3,,"Serge","JoshuaZ","Would require a miracle.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-30T14:42:40.000Z","2015-03-25T17:22:47.000Z","2033-03-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""",7,,"tstelzig","JoshuaZ","Assuming human brains.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-30T20:43:54.000Z","2015-03-25T17:22:47.000Z","2033-03-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""",10,,"Medea","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-09T11:59:52.000Z","2015-03-25T17:22:47.000Z","2033-03-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""",90,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T18:32:51.000Z","2015-03-25T17:22:47.000Z","2033-03-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.",15,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-01T20:54:04.000Z","2012-05-01T20:54:04.000Z","2022-05-01T20:54:04.000Z"
"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.",5,,"gimpf","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-05T17:05:08.000Z","2012-05-01T20:54:04.000Z","2022-05-01T20:54:04.000Z"
"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.",1,,"JoeK","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-25T21:25:31.000Z","2012-05-01T20:54:04.000Z","2022-05-01T20:54:04.000Z"
"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.",1,,"JoshuaZ","gwern","Thinking about this more, bandwith is going to be a serious limiting issue. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-04-28T01:35:21.000Z","2012-05-01T20:54:04.000Z","2022-05-01T20:54:04.000Z"
"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.",4,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T00:34:42.733Z","2012-05-01T20:54:04.000Z","2022-05-01T20:54:04.000Z"
"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.",2,,"RandomThinker","gwern","I give that about the same credence as tachyons.  I hear those are pretty fast!",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-01T21:53:09.000Z","2012-05-01T20:54:04.000Z","2022-05-01T20:54:04.000Z"
"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.",5,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-02T00:46:15.000Z","2012-05-01T20:54:04.000Z","2022-05-01T20:54:04.000Z"
"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.",3,,"Emanuel Rylke","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-02T14:20:19.000Z","2012-05-01T20:54:04.000Z","2022-05-01T20:54:04.000Z"
"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.",25,,"arthurb","gwern","The fastest line between New-York and Chicago currently uses microwaves. The previous fastest was built by SpreadNetworks for $140M. The world's biggest neutrino detector only cost $280. Only 25% because of regulatory risk.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-02T15:01:10.000Z","2012-05-01T20:54:04.000Z","2022-05-01T20:54:04.000Z"
"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.",20,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-05T07:44:25.000Z","2012-05-01T20:54:04.000Z","2022-05-01T20:54:04.000Z"
"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.",20,,"arthurb","gwern","JoshuaZ: bandwith doesn't matter that much. Being able to send a single bit (market jumped up/down) can be enormously valuable.

(lowering prediction due to increasing regulatory concerns)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-08-07T03:05:06.000Z","2012-05-01T20:54:04.000Z","2022-05-01T20:54:04.000Z"
"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T00:42:42.000Z","2012-05-01T20:54:04.000Z","2022-05-01T20:54:04.000Z"
"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.",2,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-10T20:57:19.786Z","2012-05-01T20:54:04.000Z","2022-05-01T20:54:04.000Z"
"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.",1,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-10T20:57:23.227Z","2012-05-01T20:54:04.000Z","2022-05-01T20:54:04.000Z"
"Trump will run for president in 2024",10,,"sty.silver","sty.silver",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-06T14:48:04.302Z","2020-11-06T14:48:04.297Z","2024-06-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will run for president in 2024",30,,"Deepak","sty.silver",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-06T14:56:49.030Z","2020-11-06T14:48:04.297Z","2024-06-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will run for president in 2024",5,,"pvoberstein","sty.silver",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-09T00:45:31.439Z","2020-11-06T14:48:04.297Z","2024-06-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will run for president in 2024",3,,"JoshuaZ","sty.silver",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-09T00:58:23.017Z","2020-11-06T14:48:04.297Z","2024-06-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will run for president in 2024",28,,"Baeboo","sty.silver",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-11T20:02:51.947Z","2020-11-06T14:48:04.297Z","2024-06-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will run for president in 2024",5,,"Medea","sty.silver",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T14:38:37.745Z","2020-11-06T14:48:04.297Z","2024-06-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will run for president in 2024",10,,"chemotaxis101","sty.silver",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-07T15:19:38.125Z","2020-11-06T14:48:04.297Z","2024-06-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will run for president in 2024",30,,"batemancapital","sty.silver",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-07T17:01:07.406Z","2020-11-06T14:48:04.297Z","2024-06-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will run for president in 2024",30,,"PlacidPlatypus","sty.silver",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T21:02:05.251Z","2020-11-06T14:48:04.297Z","2024-06-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will run for president in 2024",4,,"JoshuaZ","sty.silver",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-11T14:43:04.673Z","2020-11-06T14:48:04.297Z","2024-06-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will run for president in 2024",35,,"sty.silver","sty.silver",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T21:23:25.013Z","2020-11-06T14:48:04.297Z","2024-06-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will run for president in 2024",15,,"true","sty.silver",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T10:46:20.070Z","2020-11-06T14:48:04.297Z","2024-06-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will run for president in 2024",60,,"platypus42","sty.silver",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T19:41:09.909Z","2020-11-06T14:48:04.297Z","2024-06-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021",65,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-29T23:44:53.000Z","2012-05-29T23:44:53.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021",35,,"JoshuaZ","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-30T13:52:39.000Z","2012-05-29T23:44:53.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021",20,,"Jayson Virissimo","RandomThinker","There is a pretty big spread on this one.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-30T14:13:25.000Z","2012-05-29T23:44:53.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021",5,,"davidiach","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-06-06T09:42:54.000Z","2012-05-29T23:44:53.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021",20,,"chimpsky","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-06-07T21:43:46.000Z","2012-05-29T23:44:53.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021",5,,"Qiaochu","RandomThinker","Looked at what the last few First Ladies did after leaving the White House. Clinton appears to have been an outlier. The other First Ladies  preferred activism of various kinds and Michelle Obama strikes me as fitting in that mold.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-14T22:52:19.000Z","2012-05-29T23:44:53.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021",10,,"simplicio","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-21T13:09:07.000Z","2012-05-29T23:44:53.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021",4,,"themusicgod1","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T00:56:13.000Z","2012-05-29T23:44:53.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021",25,,"HonoreDB","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-30T03:17:08.000Z","2012-05-29T23:44:53.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021",5,,"bobpage","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-30T17:59:35.000Z","2012-05-29T23:44:53.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021",40,,"army1987","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-06-05T22:22:17.000Z","2012-05-29T23:44:53.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.",88,,"bobpage","Grognor",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-29T03:02:59.000Z","2012-08-27T22:49:09.000Z","2022-08-28T06:49:09.000Z"
"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.",55,,"Jayson Virissimo","Grognor",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-29T03:20:51.000Z","2012-08-27T22:49:09.000Z","2022-08-28T06:49:09.000Z"
"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.",70,,"Filipe","Grognor",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-07T02:05:12.000Z","2012-08-27T22:49:09.000Z","2022-08-28T06:49:09.000Z"
"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.",20,,"Andrew MacFie","Grognor",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-26T16:09:44.657Z","2012-08-27T22:49:09.000Z","2022-08-28T06:49:09.000Z"
"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.",0,,"Grognor","Grognor",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-27T22:49:10.000Z","2012-08-27T22:49:09.000Z","2022-08-28T06:49:09.000Z"
"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.",60,,"gwern","Grognor","I learned my lesson with the XiXiDu predictions",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-28T02:03:24.000Z","2012-08-27T22:49:09.000Z","2022-08-28T06:49:09.000Z"
"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.",55,,"JoshuaZ","Grognor","Per Gwern",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-28T14:56:28.000Z","2012-08-27T22:49:09.000Z","2022-08-28T06:49:09.000Z"
"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.",50,,"muflax","Grognor","I wonder if there should be a universal LWer-in-exile alt for technically true commitments with plausible deniability. #dramawhorebook",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-28T22:51:12.000Z","2012-08-27T22:49:09.000Z","2022-08-28T06:49:09.000Z"
"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.",80,,"William-Quixote","Grognor","10 years is a long time",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-08T17:39:58.000Z","2012-08-27T22:49:09.000Z","2022-08-28T06:49:09.000Z"
"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.",40,,"gwern","Grognor","since Grognor is being such an ass, I'll flip my sign...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-11T22:01:57.000Z","2012-08-27T22:49:09.000Z","2022-08-28T06:49:09.000Z"
"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.",1,,"Andrew MacFie","Grognor",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-09T17:11:30.000Z","2012-08-27T22:49:09.000Z","2022-08-28T06:49:09.000Z"
"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.",43,,"themusicgod1","Grognor",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-09T19:14:08.000Z","2012-08-27T22:49:09.000Z","2022-08-28T06:49:09.000Z"
"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.",35,,"pranomostro","Grognor",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-09T00:05:10.850Z","2012-08-27T22:49:09.000Z","2022-08-28T06:49:09.000Z"
"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.",0,,"Deepak","Deepak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-16T17:48:58.541Z","2020-09-16T17:48:58.536Z","2025-09-16T17:48:58.000Z"
"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.",7,,"fandangos","Deepak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-22T14:38:22.881Z","2020-09-16T17:48:58.536Z","2025-09-16T17:48:58.000Z"
"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.",7,,"lalaithion","Deepak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-14T20:05:43.702Z","2020-09-16T17:48:58.536Z","2025-09-16T17:48:58.000Z"
"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.",1,,"Baeboo","Deepak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-26T21:56:23.253Z","2020-09-16T17:48:58.536Z","2025-09-16T17:48:58.000Z"
"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.",1,,"JoshuaZ","Deepak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-16T18:25:05.174Z","2020-09-16T17:48:58.536Z","2025-09-16T17:48:58.000Z"
"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.",1,,"unexpectedEOF","Deepak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-16T20:37:38.023Z","2020-09-16T17:48:58.536Z","2025-09-16T17:48:58.000Z"
"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.",3,,"PlacidPlatypus","Deepak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-18T16:41:20.460Z","2020-09-16T17:48:58.536Z","2025-09-16T17:48:58.000Z"
"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.",0,,"henryaj","Deepak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-20T13:04:57.680Z","2020-09-16T17:48:58.536Z","2025-09-16T17:48:58.000Z"
"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.",1,,"Reactionaryhistorian","Deepak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-26T15:18:00.785Z","2020-09-16T17:48:58.536Z","2025-09-16T17:48:58.000Z"
"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.",1,,"Medea","Deepak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-09T12:27:12.203Z","2020-09-16T17:48:58.536Z","2025-09-16T17:48:58.000Z"
"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.",5,,"chemotaxis101","Deepak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-26T18:25:44.401Z","2020-09-16T17:48:58.536Z","2025-09-16T17:48:58.000Z"
"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.",2,,"Baeboo","Deepak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-26T21:56:15.179Z","2020-09-16T17:48:58.536Z","2025-09-16T17:48:58.000Z"
"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election",55,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-28T01:18:12.417Z","2020-07-28T01:18:12.404Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election",46,,"Baeboo","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-28T01:41:25.938Z","2020-07-28T01:18:12.404Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election",48,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-28T14:50:45.750Z","2020-07-28T01:18:12.404Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election",33,,"bobpage","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-31T00:54:41.642Z","2020-07-28T01:18:12.404Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election",45,,"PlacidPlatypus","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-31T16:32:56.454Z","2020-07-28T01:18:12.404Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election",45,,"amadeu","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-12T21:23:16.993Z","2020-07-28T01:18:12.404Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election",50,,"NickN","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-30T17:58:13.047Z","2020-07-28T01:18:12.404Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election",70,,"product","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-01T12:09:09.038Z","2020-07-28T01:18:12.404Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election",48,,"Bruno Parga","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T13:02:14.885Z","2020-07-28T01:18:12.404Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election",45,,"chemotaxis101","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T20:23:02.225Z","2020-07-28T01:18:12.404Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election",39,,"Baeboo","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-11T02:09:09.479Z","2020-07-28T01:18:12.404Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-25T14:32:46.000Z","2020-07-28T01:18:12.404Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election",30,,"sty.silver","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-27T08:09:50.939Z","2020-07-28T01:18:12.404Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-21T07:58:38.274Z","2020-06-21T07:58:38.269Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election",8,,"WilliamKiely","InquilineKea","~ 12% risk of dying (base rate American 79-83yo male is ~22%). ~50% chance he'd resign before dying. ~2% risk of resigning for other reasons. (5 mins of thought on this Q.)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-22T15:17:33.761Z","2020-06-21T07:58:38.269Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election",20,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-23T04:12:02.871Z","2020-06-21T07:58:38.269Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election",3,,"gwillen","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-11T22:28:27.682Z","2020-06-21T07:58:38.269Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election",5,,"NickN","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-30T13:09:21.122Z","2020-06-21T07:58:38.269Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election",10,,"sty.silver","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-21T11:39:05.260Z","2020-06-21T07:58:38.269Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election",9,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-22T21:42:52.561Z","2020-06-21T07:58:38.269Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election",0,,"MultiplyByZer0","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-30T18:47:40.114Z","2020-06-21T07:58:38.269Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election",5,,"chemotaxis101","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-08T09:57:09.126Z","2020-06-21T07:58:38.269Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election",5,,"azatris","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-16T23:40:58.695Z","2020-06-21T07:58:38.269Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election",7,,"amadeu","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-17T20:25:52.014Z","2020-06-21T07:58:38.269Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins the 2020 election.",85,,"azatris","azatris",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-18T10:41:13.988Z","2020-04-18T10:41:13.983Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins the 2020 election.",70,,"qznc","azatris",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-18T11:37:13.996Z","2020-04-18T10:41:13.983Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins the 2020 election.",50,,"sty.silver","azatris",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-18T17:54:07.188Z","2020-04-18T10:41:13.983Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins the 2020 election.",40,,"erstwhile","azatris",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-20T14:46:27.442Z","2020-04-18T10:41:13.983Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins the 2020 election.",44,,"Mathieu_Putz","azatris",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-28T12:37:16.272Z","2020-04-18T10:41:13.983Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins the 2020 election.",30,,"Paul.David.Carr","azatris",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-01T02:44:30.518Z","2020-04-18T10:41:13.983Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins the 2020 election.",46,,"Baeboo","azatris",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-01T17:42:50.069Z","2020-04-18T10:41:13.983Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins the 2020 election.",65,,"chemotaxis101","azatris",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-04T21:14:23.714Z","2020-04-18T10:41:13.983Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins the 2020 election.",38,,"Mathieu_Putz","azatris",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-13T12:31:32.592Z","2020-04-18T10:41:13.983Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins the 2020 election.",30,,"InquilineKea","azatris",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-02T08:13:53.513Z","2020-04-18T10:41:13.983Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins the 2020 election.",55,,"panashe","azatris","Widespread riots and civil unrest will likely help Trump",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-02T14:23:23.126Z","2020-04-18T10:41:13.983Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins the 2020 election.",25,,"InquilineKea","azatris",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-02T23:57:37.450Z","2020-04-18T10:41:13.983Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump wins the 2020 election.",40,,"MultiplyByZer0","azatris",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T05:07:59.839Z","2020-04-18T10:41:13.983Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge  within the next eight years in the USA.",70,,"Nadanate","Nadanate",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-13T04:46:11.000Z","2012-11-13T04:46:11.000Z","2020-12-31T18:36:43.000Z"
"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge  within the next eight years in the USA.",25,,"andrevan","Nadanate",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-24T02:29:51.000Z","2012-11-13T04:46:11.000Z","2020-12-31T18:36:43.000Z"
"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge  within the next eight years in the USA.",15,,"RobbBB","Nadanate","By ""significant"" I'll understand ""polling at least 10% nationally""",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-24T05:11:07.000Z","2012-11-13T04:46:11.000Z","2020-12-31T18:36:43.000Z"
"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge  within the next eight years in the USA.",30,,"NathanMcKnight","Nadanate",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-24T05:25:39.000Z","2012-11-13T04:46:11.000Z","2020-12-31T18:36:43.000Z"
"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge  within the next eight years in the USA.",20,,"gwern","Nadanate",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-12-31T18:36:51.000Z","2012-11-13T04:46:11.000Z","2020-12-31T18:36:43.000Z"
"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge  within the next eight years in the USA.",1,,"Baeboo","Nadanate",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T03:24:07.664Z","2012-11-13T04:46:11.000Z","2020-12-31T18:36:43.000Z"
"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge  within the next eight years in the USA.",30,,"Michael Dickens","Nadanate",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-29T21:16:47.000Z","2012-11-13T04:46:11.000Z","2020-12-31T18:36:43.000Z"
"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge  within the next eight years in the USA.",25,,"Tuxedage","Nadanate","Also using RobbBB's definition of 10% polling.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-12-31T22:47:34.000Z","2012-11-13T04:46:11.000Z","2020-12-31T18:36:43.000Z"
"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge  within the next eight years in the USA.",25,,"hedges","Nadanate",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-17T12:59:55.000Z","2012-11-13T04:46:11.000Z","2020-12-31T18:36:43.000Z"
"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge  within the next eight years in the USA.",46,,"themusicgod1","Nadanate",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T14:30:07.000Z","2012-11-13T04:46:11.000Z","2020-12-31T18:36:43.000Z"
"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge  within the next eight years in the USA.",5,,"pranomostro","Nadanate",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:24:35.040Z","2012-11-13T04:46:11.000Z","2020-12-31T18:36:43.000Z"
"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge  within the next eight years in the USA.",5,,"Baeboo","Nadanate",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T02:46:48.279Z","2012-11-13T04:46:11.000Z","2020-12-31T18:36:43.000Z"
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.",92,,"smijer","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-12-31T21:44:31.000Z","2012-12-31T18:34:54.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.",61,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-05T02:27:16.000Z","2012-12-31T18:34:54.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.",89,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T02:45:41.420Z","2012-12-31T18:34:54.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.",77,,"amadeu","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-07T20:42:20.956Z","2012-12-31T18:34:54.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.",91,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T03:22:14.388Z","2012-12-31T18:34:54.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.",55,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-12-31T18:34:54.000Z","2012-12-31T18:34:54.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.",70,,"Tuxedage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-12-31T18:35:57.000Z","2012-12-31T18:34:54.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.",95,,"Qiaochu","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-01T07:17:02.000Z","2012-12-31T18:34:54.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.",55,,"HonoreDB","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-04T02:25:39.000Z","2012-12-31T18:34:54.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.",70,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-08T04:16:39.000Z","2012-12-31T18:34:54.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.",89,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T14:39:55.000Z","2012-12-31T18:34:54.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.",90,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:23:20.490Z","2012-12-31T18:34:54.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020",50,,"sjy","sjy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-22T12:26:07.853Z","2020-03-22T12:26:07.848Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020",10,,"sty.silver","sjy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-22T16:55:37.076Z","2020-03-22T12:26:07.848Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020",40,,"pranomostro","sjy","Politicians seem to face especially high risk, & Goldman & Sachs predicts that ~50% of US americans will get infected. My estimate is only lower because he will have ample resources to protect himself.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-23T15:18:11.929Z","2020-03-22T12:26:07.848Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020",30,,"daveisright","sjy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-27T03:52:18.463Z","2020-03-22T12:26:07.848Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020",30,,"qznc","sjy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-01T18:15:16.617Z","2020-03-22T12:26:07.848Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020",20,,"Adam Zerner","sjy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-02T01:55:34.082Z","2020-03-22T12:26:07.848Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020",14,,"credunkist","sjy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-03T16:44:36.179Z","2020-03-22T12:26:07.848Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020",20,,"InquilineKea","sjy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-02T08:16:05.718Z","2020-03-22T12:26:07.848Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020",60,,"jjjsjd","sjy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-01T20:42:46.387Z","2020-03-22T12:26:07.848Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020",15,,"batemancapital","sjy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-03T20:31:00.147Z","2020-03-22T12:26:07.848Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020",20,,"chemotaxis101","sjy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-04T21:14:58.536Z","2020-03-22T12:26:07.848Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"50 million",0,,"nortriptyline2","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-22T22:50:57.578Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.575Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"50 million",0,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-23T10:13:14.430Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.575Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"50 million",0,,"Bruno Parga","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-23T15:54:31.656Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.575Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"50 million",0,,"peter_hurford","nortriptyline2","2003 SARS killed 800 people. This strain is better contained and less virulent. Hard to imagine this reaching >50M.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-23T17:02:38.521Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.575Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"50 million",2,,"Bruno Parga","nortriptyline2","Updating based on https://cutt.ly/9rRIWJe",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-27T16:13:31.275Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.575Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"50 million",1,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-27T19:16:59.500Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.575Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"50 million",0,,"fr00t","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-28T20:16:06.351Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.575Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"50 million",0,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-04T09:43:18.119Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.575Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"50 million",0,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-05T00:20:38.082Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.575Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"50 million",0,,"Medea","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-13T15:19:51.441Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.575Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"50 million",0,,"Medea","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-13T15:19:56.728Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.575Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"50 million",0,,"avi","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-22T22:45:58.006Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.575Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"50 million",0,,"stepan","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-24T17:52:34.108Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.575Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"50 million",0,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-05T05:44:03.541Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.575Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"50 million",0,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-26T21:59:56.763Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.575Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"50 million",8,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-07T05:07:45.794Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.575Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"50 million",6,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-25T05:49:13.856Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.575Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"50 million",4,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-11T06:10:25.264Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.575Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"50 million",0,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-27T04:56:51.651Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.575Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"50 million",0,,"pranomostro","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-23T20:06:25.448Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.575Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"50 million",0,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-27T19:17:36.639Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.575Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"50 million",2,,"nortriptyline2","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-27T19:20:40.139Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.575Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"50 million",1,,"Bruno Parga","nortriptyline2","Should be less than 1%, but I still don't want to put a 0.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-07T22:06:23.688Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.575Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"50 million",0,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-09T04:20:52.449Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.575Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"50 million",10,,"sty.silver","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-13T15:15:42.904Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.575Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"50 million",2,,"Bruno Parga","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-19T15:44:22.517Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.575Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"50 million",0,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-21T03:10:50.082Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.575Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"50 million",3,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-03T09:14:29.819Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.575Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"50 million",5,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-13T07:00:22.380Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.575Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"50 million",6,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-19T23:23:09.169Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.575Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"50 million",6,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-06T19:28:40.986Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.575Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"50 million",0,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-03T02:30:49.846Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.575Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"50 million",0,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T07:23:23.754Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.575Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"50 million",0,,"Bruno Parga","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-11T14:01:39.436Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.575Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022",2,,"bobpage","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-12T05:41:07.181Z","2019-08-12T05:41:07.175Z","2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022",3,,"pranomostro","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-12T08:21:47.178Z","2019-08-12T05:41:07.175Z","2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022",8,,"HonoreDB","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-12T21:04:42.429Z","2019-08-12T05:41:07.175Z","2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022",1,,"stepan","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-10T12:28:35.804Z","2019-08-12T05:41:07.175Z","2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022",3,,"Baeboo","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-10T18:48:14.452Z","2019-08-12T05:41:07.175Z","2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022",8,,"credunkist","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-17T19:42:44.242Z","2019-08-12T05:41:07.175Z","2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022",5,,"galen","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-26T06:10:45.015Z","2019-08-12T05:41:07.175Z","2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022",2,,"Baeboo","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-27T05:17:51.160Z","2019-08-12T05:41:07.175Z","2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022",0,,"jamesrom","bobpage","P(murder) * P(cover up) * P(leaking/confession before 2022) ≈ 0",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-07T07:43:11.278Z","2019-08-12T05:41:07.175Z","2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022",3,,"jbeshir","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-15T06:20:37.489Z","2019-08-12T05:41:07.175Z","2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022",5,,"Athrithalix","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-25T09:51:11.464Z","2019-08-12T05:41:07.175Z","2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022",5,,"stepan","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-24T17:41:37.558Z","2019-08-12T05:41:07.175Z","2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022",1,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-14T06:39:38.554Z","2019-08-12T05:41:07.175Z","2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.",0,,"ygert","Omid","Maybe China will commit genocide in this time frame, but not only is it unlikely, it is doubly unlikely that they do it in the way implied by this prediction. (Specifically mass involuntary euthanasia.)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-22T16:34:41.000Z","2013-08-22T13:39:16.000Z","2034-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.",1,,"lavalamp","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-24T00:59:32.000Z","2013-08-22T13:39:16.000Z","2034-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.",0,,"holycow81","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-28T22:37:55.000Z","2013-08-22T13:39:16.000Z","2034-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.",0,,"procran","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-28T22:51:02.000Z","2013-08-22T13:39:16.000Z","2034-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.",4,,"Michael Dickens","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-07T22:45:50.000Z","2013-08-22T13:39:16.000Z","2034-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.",0,,"adbge","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-09T01:49:19.000Z","2013-08-22T13:39:16.000Z","2034-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.",2,,"JoshuaZ","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-09T03:59:16.000Z","2013-08-22T13:39:16.000Z","2034-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.",0,,"Jayson Virissimo","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-09T18:50:18.000Z","2013-08-22T13:39:16.000Z","2034-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.",3,,"Omid","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-22T13:39:16.000Z","2013-08-22T13:39:16.000Z","2034-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.",1,,"mfb","Omid","More like <.1%, but not completely impossible",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-24T00:31:59.000Z","2013-08-22T13:39:16.000Z","2034-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.",0,,"bobpage","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-17T17:43:21.000Z","2013-08-22T13:39:16.000Z","2034-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030",50,,"Ben Doherty","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-14T07:09:44.000Z","2013-09-14T07:09:44.000Z","2030-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030",18,,"holycow81","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-16T02:00:20.000Z","2013-09-14T07:09:44.000Z","2030-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030",70,,"shaldengeki","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-01T17:04:05.000Z","2013-09-14T07:09:44.000Z","2030-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030",10,,"schimmy","Ben Doherty","agree with RandomThinker on this one- unlikely that a regular road will have this law implemented. I could see something like the road to the airport pickup and dropoff being only drone cars to prevent idling. However, exceptions for antiques?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-08T05:35:04.000Z","2013-09-14T07:09:44.000Z","2030-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030",55,,"JoshuaZ","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-15T21:32:34.000Z","2013-09-14T07:09:44.000Z","2030-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030",65,,"Jayson Virissimo","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-17T20:34:13.000Z","2013-09-14T07:09:44.000Z","2030-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030",55,,"NathanMcKnight","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-20T03:56:31.000Z","2013-09-14T07:09:44.000Z","2030-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030",20,,"qap","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-21T18:47:19.000Z","2013-09-14T07:09:44.000Z","2030-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030",40,,"NathanMcKnight","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-01T03:39:40.000Z","2013-09-14T07:09:44.000Z","2030-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030",10,,"drewmm","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-07T05:53:27.000Z","2013-09-14T07:09:44.000Z","2030-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030",66,,"tylercurtis","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-07T16:21:14.000Z","2013-09-14T07:09:44.000Z","2030-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030",70,,"from3004","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-16T20:05:50.000Z","2013-09-14T07:09:44.000Z","2030-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.",7,,"Baeboo","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-06T05:07:41.587Z","2018-10-21T21:12:26.000Z","2028-10-21T21:12:26.000Z"
"People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.",5,,"aarongertler","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-06T04:12:59.072Z","2018-10-21T21:12:26.000Z","2028-10-21T21:12:26.000Z"
"People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.",10,,"jazzsolo","Leo","Maybe in 20 years.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-03T21:02:43.677Z","2018-10-21T21:12:26.000Z","2028-10-21T21:12:26.000Z"
"People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.",60,,"Elly-Immeska","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-01T01:23:39.000Z","2018-10-21T21:12:26.000Z","2028-10-21T21:12:26.000Z"
"People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.",1,,"vi","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-10-26T23:49:37.000Z","2018-10-21T21:12:26.000Z","2028-10-21T21:12:26.000Z"
"People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.",20,,"vinegar","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-10-25T19:15:40.000Z","2018-10-21T21:12:26.000Z","2028-10-21T21:12:26.000Z"
"People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.",80,,"LogicAndReason","Leo","I'd be pretty surprised if this wasn't the case. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-10-25T13:00:16.000Z","2018-10-21T21:12:26.000Z","2028-10-21T21:12:26.000Z"
"People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.",1,,"Leo","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-10-21T21:12:26.000Z","2018-10-21T21:12:26.000Z","2028-10-21T21:12:26.000Z"
"People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.",60,,"Medea","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-09T13:28:10.000Z","2018-10-21T21:12:26.000Z","2028-10-21T21:12:26.000Z"
"People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.",30,,"pranomostro","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-10-27T10:48:02.000Z","2018-10-21T21:12:26.000Z","2028-10-21T21:12:26.000Z"
"People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.",90,,"Adamdm","Leo","It'll happen way before this, and its use will be considerably more widespread.

I bet €1000 against Leo today.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-10-21T21:20:39.000Z","2018-10-21T21:12:26.000Z","2028-10-21T21:12:26.000Z"
"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040",70,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea","I imagine we would still use them for ""serious"" diplomatic talks, if only because we'll believe they can pick up on more nuance.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-19T19:59:26.000Z","2015-08-04T17:02:37.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040",70,,"timujin","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-05T12:53:47.000Z","2015-08-04T17:02:37.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040",40,,"HonoreDB","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-04T18:44:48.000Z","2015-08-04T17:02:37.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040",45,,"wizzwizz4","InquilineKea","We'll need new algorithms; there are classes of errors that humans just don't make (with understanding) that existing algorithms can only reduce (with improved predictions from increased training). Plus, NLP is NP-hard (e.g. garden path sentences).",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-13T16:41:35.567Z","2015-08-04T17:02:37.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040",6,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-10T00:22:09.000Z","2015-08-04T17:02:37.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040",75,,"luxpir","InquilineKea","The last 25 years saw convenience brought to the working lives of translators, through IT, the next 25 years will bring us unnervingly close to replacement, yet the humans will still retain ultimate trust in 'serious' translation work.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-29T09:30:37.000Z","2015-08-04T17:02:37.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040",66,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-26T06:18:28.000Z","2015-08-04T17:02:37.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040",65,,"btrettel","InquilineKea","I'm interpreting this as human translators will still exist, because their existence implies their usefulness.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-07T17:27:58.000Z","2015-08-04T17:02:37.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040",70,,"RoryS","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-04T21:55:14.000Z","2015-08-04T17:02:37.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040",55,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-04T18:28:01.000Z","2015-08-04T17:02:37.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040",45,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-04T17:02:37.000Z","2015-08-04T17:02:37.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040",42,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T20:11:06.333Z","2015-08-04T17:02:37.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040",36,,"Baeboo","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-13T00:12:06.132Z","2015-08-04T17:02:37.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years",0,,"NickN","Ham Nox",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T02:29:43.166Z","2014-07-21T02:31:42.000Z","2024-07-21T02:31:42.000Z"
"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years",1,,"Ham Nox","Ham Nox",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-07-21T02:31:42.000Z","2014-07-21T02:31:42.000Z","2024-07-21T02:31:42.000Z"
"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years",1,,"qznc","Ham Nox",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-07-21T07:41:39.000Z","2014-07-21T02:31:42.000Z","2024-07-21T02:31:42.000Z"
"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years",0,,"rebellionkid","Ham Nox",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-07-21T13:53:42.000Z","2014-07-21T02:31:42.000Z","2024-07-21T02:31:42.000Z"
"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years",0,,"clemux","Ham Nox",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-07-22T00:46:21.000Z","2014-07-21T02:31:42.000Z","2024-07-21T02:31:42.000Z"
"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years",0,,"JoshuaZ","Ham Nox",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-07-23T00:56:27.000Z","2014-07-21T02:31:42.000Z","2024-07-21T02:31:42.000Z"
"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years",1,,"Jayson Virissimo","Ham Nox",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-07-31T17:23:19.000Z","2014-07-21T02:31:42.000Z","2024-07-21T02:31:42.000Z"
"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years",0,,"tylercurtis","Ham Nox",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-08-01T23:36:34.000Z","2014-07-21T02:31:42.000Z","2024-07-21T02:31:42.000Z"
"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years",5,,"tedks","Ham Nox","within 10 years, could the EU, UN, or NATO form a superstate more like sovereign states of today than the organizations they now are? That sounds plausible. 10 years is pretty short but I think 0% is too low. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-08-02T22:49:35.000Z","2014-07-21T02:31:42.000Z","2024-07-21T02:31:42.000Z"
"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years",10,,"from3004","Ham Nox",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-16T20:04:41.000Z","2014-07-21T02:31:42.000Z","2024-07-21T02:31:42.000Z"
"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years",17,,"themusicgod1","Ham Nox",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T02:11:42.000Z","2014-07-21T02:31:42.000Z","2024-07-21T02:31:42.000Z"
"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years",12,,"themusicgod1","Ham Nox",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-16T20:14:44.000Z","2014-07-21T02:31:42.000Z","2024-07-21T02:31:42.000Z"
"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years",2,,"Ham Nox","Ham Nox",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-08-11T02:54:55.000Z","2014-07-21T02:31:42.000Z","2024-07-21T02:31:42.000Z"
"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.",80,,"unexpectedEOF","unexpectedEOF",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-24T21:47:17.000Z","2015-11-24T21:47:17.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.",38,,"JoshuaZ","unexpectedEOF",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-25T00:09:06.000Z","2015-11-24T21:47:17.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.",35,,"EloiseRosen","unexpectedEOF",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-25T14:10:13.000Z","2015-11-24T21:47:17.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.",0,,"The_Offwo","unexpectedEOF",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-28T00:17:35.000Z","2015-11-24T21:47:17.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.",24,,"The_Offwo","unexpectedEOF",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-28T00:17:46.000Z","2015-11-24T21:47:17.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.",10,,"NathanMcKnight","unexpectedEOF",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-02T21:35:20.000Z","2015-11-24T21:47:17.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.",20,,"RoryS","unexpectedEOF",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-02T23:06:35.000Z","2015-11-24T21:47:17.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.",45,,"HonoreDB","unexpectedEOF",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-07T14:26:24.000Z","2015-11-24T21:47:17.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.",20,,"Medea","unexpectedEOF",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-25T21:42:47.000Z","2015-11-24T21:47:17.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.",28,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","unexpectedEOF",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-27T07:08:23.000Z","2015-11-24T21:47:17.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.",23,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","unexpectedEOF",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-27T07:36:28.000Z","2015-11-24T21:47:17.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.",20,,"RoryS","unexpectedEOF",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-02T23:06:36.000Z","2015-11-24T21:47:17.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.",40,,"rafaelCosman","unexpectedEOF",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-06T01:14:36.000Z","2015-11-24T21:47:17.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.",15,,"Afforess","unexpectedEOF","If anything, I expect the US to be one of the hold-outs that implements basic income last.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-08T15:54:10.000Z","2015-11-24T21:47:17.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams",60,,"rebellionkid","rebellionkid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-13T14:35:57.000Z","2015-01-13T14:35:57.000Z","2035-01-13T14:35:57.000Z"
"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams",10,,"roshni","rebellionkid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-20T11:41:57.000Z","2015-01-13T14:35:57.000Z","2035-01-13T14:35:57.000Z"
"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams",25,,"aarongertler","rebellionkid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-25T20:45:23.000Z","2015-01-13T14:35:57.000Z","2035-01-13T14:35:57.000Z"
"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams",15,,"RoryS","rebellionkid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-12T23:53:06.000Z","2015-01-13T14:35:57.000Z","2035-01-13T14:35:57.000Z"
"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams",15,,"Pablo","rebellionkid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-14T12:00:58.000Z","2015-01-13T14:35:57.000Z","2035-01-13T14:35:57.000Z"
"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams",25,,"JoshuaZ","rebellionkid","Shadowrun is awesome but thankfully it isn't the universe we live in. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-13T17:54:37.000Z","2015-01-13T14:35:57.000Z","2035-01-13T14:35:57.000Z"
"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams",10,,"sweeneyrod","rebellionkid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-26T13:11:12.000Z","2015-01-13T14:35:57.000Z","2035-01-13T14:35:57.000Z"
"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams",10,,"JesseClifton","rebellionkid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-28T23:19:53.000Z","2015-01-13T14:35:57.000Z","2035-01-13T14:35:57.000Z"
"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams",50,,"themusicgod1","rebellionkid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-08T16:57:59.000Z","2015-01-13T14:35:57.000Z","2035-01-13T14:35:57.000Z"
"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams",5,,"NathanMcKnight","rebellionkid","15% minus 10% because Scott Adams is an idiot. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T01:18:18.000Z","2015-01-13T14:35:57.000Z","2035-01-13T14:35:57.000Z"
"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams",3,,"elephantower","rebellionkid","Apparently Adams hasn't heard of Cromwell's Law...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T06:04:57.000Z","2015-01-13T14:35:57.000Z","2035-01-13T14:35:57.000Z"
"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ",21,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-22T03:08:53.000Z","2015-04-22T03:08:53.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ",33,,"jesselevine","JoshuaZ","Ooh. This is a tough one for me.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-22T16:39:04.000Z","2015-04-22T03:08:53.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ",50,,"OferBaratz","JoshuaZ","90% chance on happening by 2035",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-22T20:25:20.000Z","2015-04-22T03:08:53.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","JoshuaZ","Not going to happen. ITER won't even be up and running before 2050. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-12T05:54:21.000Z","2015-04-22T03:08:53.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ",7,,"Unknowns","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-15T04:36:53.000Z","2015-04-22T03:08:53.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ",2,,"Chri","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-15T07:37:10.000Z","2015-04-22T03:08:53.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ",25,,"FarOutFuture1988","JoshuaZ","Honestly I don't know if it will come to pass by 2030. 2045 maybe but until we know for certain that we can get a net gain from fusion this is an unlikely to come to fruition.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-21T11:40:45.000Z","2015-04-22T03:08:53.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ",40,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T23:50:59.000Z","2015-04-22T03:08:53.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ",2,,"Chri","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-15T07:37:13.000Z","2015-04-22T03:08:53.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ",5,,"splorridge","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-13T16:42:15.000Z","2015-04-22T03:08:53.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ",78,,"artir","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-21T11:44:56.000Z","2015-04-22T03:08:53.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ",21,,"Baeboo","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-09T02:20:55.379Z","2015-04-22T03:08:53.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ",95,,"Jayson Virissimo","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-24T21:26:36.000Z","2015-04-24T21:05:24.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ",95,,"Michael Dickens","JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ you have a knack for putting your money where your mouth is.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-30T17:19:16.000Z","2015-04-24T21:05:24.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ",90,,"splorridge","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-13T16:39:07.000Z","2015-04-24T21:05:24.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ",85,,"PipFoweraker","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-07T00:47:50.000Z","2015-04-24T21:05:24.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ",95,,"PipFoweraker","JoshuaZ","Mislicked prior guess :-/",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-07T00:48:10.000Z","2015-04-24T21:05:24.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ",95,,"ChristianKl","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-01T01:42:03.000Z","2015-04-24T21:05:24.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ",100,,"elecnix","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-28T17:45:17.000Z","2015-04-24T21:05:24.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ",90,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-24T21:05:24.000Z","2015-04-24T21:05:24.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ",90,,"btrettel","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-24T21:22:18.000Z","2015-04-24T21:05:24.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ",95,,"jesselevine","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-24T23:37:44.000Z","2015-04-24T21:05:24.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ",97,,"Chri","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-30T20:43:02.000Z","2015-04-24T21:05:24.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ",92,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-14T06:49:27.000Z","2015-04-24T21:05:24.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo",90,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-22T03:51:07.000Z","2015-05-22T03:51:07.000Z","2050-05-29T04:00:00.000Z"
"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo",35,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar","Estimating with not even close replaced with just equaling or exceeding triple product. Low prob due to conjunction fallacy. Even if DEMO is not commercial by that point, high probability it will be functioning post ITER. +other fusion methods. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-22T16:15:27.000Z","2015-05-22T03:51:07.000Z","2050-05-29T04:00:00.000Z"
"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo",50,,"doctorpat","Raahul_Kumar","Probably also need a definition of ""successful"". I guess this means better than engineering breakeven. ie. More electricity comes out than goes in.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-23T00:40:44.000Z","2015-05-22T03:51:07.000Z","2050-05-29T04:00:00.000Z"
"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo",5,,"nshepperd","Raahul_Kumar","There sure are a lot of conjunctions here.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-03T08:03:45.000Z","2015-05-22T03:51:07.000Z","2050-05-29T04:00:00.000Z"
"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo",10,,"David","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-07T10:51:04.000Z","2015-05-22T03:51:07.000Z","2050-05-29T04:00:00.000Z"
"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo",60,,"splorridge","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-14T12:41:39.000Z","2015-05-22T03:51:07.000Z","2050-05-29T04:00:00.000Z"
"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo",60,,"jasticE","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-18T09:43:29.000Z","2015-05-22T03:51:07.000Z","2050-05-29T04:00:00.000Z"
"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo",1,,"artir","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-21T11:44:43.000Z","2015-05-22T03:51:07.000Z","2050-05-29T04:00:00.000Z"
"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo",10,,"ChristianKl","Raahul_Kumar","I consider it improbable to have exactly one successful fusion scheme by that date. If they get it to work there's likely more. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-28T18:09:29.000Z","2015-05-22T03:51:07.000Z","2050-05-29T04:00:00.000Z"
"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar","The  nτT of ITER in 2050. ITER's performance parameters are on Google.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-31T11:03:53.000Z","2015-05-22T03:51:07.000Z","2050-05-29T04:00:00.000Z"
"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar","Dr Pat by successful I mean the triple product  of ITER and Q>= 10.

https://www.iter-india.org/fusion-energy/what_is_fusion_1.htm",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-31T11:05:48.000Z","2015-05-22T03:51:07.000Z","2050-05-29T04:00:00.000Z"
"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo",45,,"themusicgod1","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-10T00:51:21.000Z","2015-05-22T03:51:07.000Z","2050-05-29T04:00:00.000Z"
"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo",23,,"6thNapoleon","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-08T20:54:00.317Z","2015-05-22T03:51:07.000Z","2050-05-29T04:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ",10,,"Andrew MacFie","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-11T17:53:05.276Z","2015-05-25T18:40:48.000Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ",20,,"RoryS","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-01T16:19:37.000Z","2015-05-25T18:40:48.000Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ",35,,"Andrew MacFie","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-05T20:11:37.000Z","2015-05-25T18:40:48.000Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ",50,,"Raahul_Kumar","JoshuaZ","I do think autonomous cars will be a huge success early on. Makes a great deal of economic and insurance sense.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-19T11:03:25.000Z","2015-05-25T18:40:48.000Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ",40,,"PipFoweraker","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-07T00:47:16.000Z","2015-05-25T18:40:48.000Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ",40,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","JoshuaZ","I assume this means ""at least 20% of all US driving miles"", right?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-10T03:56:39.000Z","2015-05-25T18:40:48.000Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ",20,,"elecnix","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-28T17:43:21.000Z","2015-05-25T18:40:48.000Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ",32,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-25T18:40:49.000Z","2015-05-25T18:40:48.000Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ",25,,"orthonormal","JoshuaZ","The ""known on"" date is too early.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-01T00:33:07.000Z","2015-05-25T18:40:48.000Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ",5,,"David","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-05T09:27:19.000Z","2015-05-25T18:40:48.000Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ",33,,"Jayson Virissimo","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-08T03:52:24.000Z","2015-05-25T18:40:48.000Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ",58,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-14T06:46:30.000Z","2015-05-25T18:40:48.000Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ",40,,"Andrew MacFie","JoshuaZ","Progress is good but we have to wait for people to buy new cars",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-04-08T17:54:32.000Z","2015-05-25T18:40:48.000Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"'President Mike Pence'",5,,"Baeboo","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-15T04:12:01.731Z","2016-10-10T15:46:00.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"'President Mike Pence'",9,,"telegrafista","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-14T16:03:37.259Z","2016-10-10T15:46:00.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"'President Mike Pence'",22,,"Temeraire","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-28T04:37:21.000Z","2016-10-10T15:46:00.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"'President Mike Pence'",50,,"bobpage","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-28T19:32:36.000Z","2016-10-10T15:46:00.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"'President Mike Pence'",16,,"Dapple","themusicgod1","Wow, I was way off earlier. Obviously updating with information I have now, it should be higher, but I think I was way too low initially with the information I had then.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-28T18:35:39.000Z","2016-10-10T15:46:00.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"'President Mike Pence'",24,,"JoshuaZ","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-09T23:18:37.000Z","2016-10-10T15:46:00.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"'President Mike Pence'",17,,"splorridge","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-09T15:57:12.000Z","2016-10-10T15:46:00.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"'President Mike Pence'",5,,"NathanMcKnight","themusicgod1","2024 is a long way off",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-07T17:56:30.000Z","2016-10-10T15:46:00.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"'President Mike Pence'",2,,"holycow81","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-23T08:23:24.000Z","2016-10-10T15:46:00.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"'President Mike Pence'",1,,"jesselevine","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-22T23:33:32.000Z","2016-10-10T15:46:00.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"'President Mike Pence'",14,,"JoshuaZ","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-21T18:21:40.000Z","2016-10-10T15:46:00.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"'President Mike Pence'",1,,"Dapple","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-14T16:04:45.000Z","2016-10-10T15:46:00.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"'President Mike Pence'",6,,"splorridge","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-12T13:04:24.000Z","2016-10-10T15:46:00.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"'President Mike Pence'",2,,"NathanMcKnight","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-12T01:58:34.000Z","2016-10-10T15:46:00.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"'President Mike Pence'",37,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T15:46:00.000Z","2016-10-10T15:46:00.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"'President Mike Pence'",14,,"JoshuaZ","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T18:37:41.725Z","2016-10-10T15:46:00.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ",85,,"galen","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-07T09:21:08.230Z","2012-02-01T17:33:26.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ",73,,"Baeboo","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T05:26:19.591Z","2012-02-01T17:33:26.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ",83,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T00:17:30.000Z","2012-02-01T17:33:26.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ",85,,"pranomostro","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T00:22:24.872Z","2012-02-01T17:33:26.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ",80,,"Jayson Virissimo","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-06T05:52:41.000Z","2012-02-01T17:33:26.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ",80,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-05T16:54:32.000Z","2012-02-01T17:33:26.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ",90,,"Anubhav","NathanMcKnight","http://www.3ders.org/articles/20120203-83-year-old-woman-got-3d-printed-mandible.html Yeah, horns should be easy enough.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-04T12:31:50.000Z","2012-02-01T17:33:26.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ",70,,"gwern","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-02T16:29:00.000Z","2012-02-01T17:33:26.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ",20,,"Anubhav","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-02T04:33:10.000Z","2012-02-01T17:33:26.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ",80,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-01T17:33:26.000Z","2012-02-01T17:33:26.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ",80,,"CaelumCodicem","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-06T03:31:09.677Z","2012-02-01T17:33:26.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.

http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/",5,,"two2thehead","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-27T16:39:37.000Z","2016-04-26T14:10:09.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.

http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/",2,,"Jenson","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-06T07:07:30.000Z","2016-04-26T14:10:09.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.

http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/",68,,"Paul.David.Carr","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-26T14:10:09.000Z","2016-04-26T14:10:09.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.

http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/",2,,"Dapple","Paul.David.Carr","Internet people overestimate the proliferation of irreligion. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-16T18:45:09.000Z","2016-04-26T14:10:09.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.

http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/",6,,"PlacidPlatypus","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-11T18:28:08.000Z","2016-04-26T14:10:09.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.

http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/",2,,"Waring","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-27T16:33:17.000Z","2016-04-26T14:10:09.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.

http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/",10,,"Raahul_Kumar","Paul.David.Carr","Only 11 years, that's very short. 70.4% in 2014, at the rate identified by Pew still expect 54% Christian population. Unlikely short of extreme mass migration and death of existing Christian population.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-26T14:35:16.000Z","2016-04-26T14:10:09.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.

http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/",30,,"jesselevine","Paul.David.Carr","Well.. considering Christians are usually old people deeply rooted in the baby-boomer generation and their instilled offspring, and progressive atheism is usually young educated people, yeah they should all be dying off soon. Nevertheless, unlikely ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-26T16:26:06.000Z","2016-04-26T14:10:09.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.

http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/",30,,"splorridge","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-26T16:15:58.000Z","2016-04-26T14:10:09.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.

http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/",43,,"themusicgod1","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-26T17:11:49.000Z","2016-04-26T14:10:09.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020",0,,"Baeboo","sty.silver",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-04T07:09:21.935Z","2020-03-22T17:00:01.916Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020",1,,"batemancapital","sty.silver",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-03T20:31:09.376Z","2020-03-22T17:00:01.916Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020",2,,"qznc","sty.silver",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-27T16:23:32.101Z","2020-03-22T17:00:01.916Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020",1,,"NickN","sty.silver",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T02:37:18.613Z","2020-03-22T17:00:01.916Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020",0,,"azatris","sty.silver",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-18T10:52:49.276Z","2020-03-22T17:00:01.916Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020",2,,"jjjsjd","sty.silver",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-01T20:42:02.887Z","2020-03-22T17:00:01.916Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020",5,,"pranomostro","sty.silver",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-23T15:19:24.501Z","2020-03-22T17:00:01.916Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020",1,,"Baeboo","sty.silver",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-27T05:31:35.496Z","2020-03-22T17:00:01.916Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020",1,,"daveisright","sty.silver",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-27T03:52:02.904Z","2020-03-22T17:00:01.916Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020",2,,"sty.silver","sty.silver",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-22T17:00:01.921Z","2020-03-22T17:00:01.916Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020",0,,"MultiplyByZer0","sty.silver",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T05:12:07.315Z","2020-03-22T17:00:01.916Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.",47,,"themusicgod1","RandomThinker","the fact this hasn't been claimed is actually quite amazing.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T00:52:54.000Z","2012-05-08T18:55:10.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.",15,,"Sarokrae","RandomThinker","Correct me if I'm wrong, traffic accident rate per person per year is somewhat under 1%, and mostly due to human error... Even adjusting upwards for extra time on the road, it's still not that likely.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-22T18:25:11.000Z","2012-05-08T18:55:10.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.",90,,"davidiach","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-06-06T10:11:51.000Z","2012-05-08T18:55:10.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.",65,,"rictic","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-16T03:09:15.000Z","2012-05-08T18:55:10.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.",10,,"elecnix","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-28T17:44:15.000Z","2012-05-08T18:55:10.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.",65,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-08T18:55:10.000Z","2012-05-08T18:55:10.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.",51,,"JoshuaZ","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-09T18:32:05.000Z","2012-05-08T18:55:10.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.",45,,"Jayson Virissimo","RandomThinker","If you took ""Google"" off the beginning og the statement my estimate would be much higher. Also, determing the $ value of damage could be tricky; it isn't always reported on in news articles.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-22T13:38:58.000Z","2012-05-08T18:55:10.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.",62,,"lukas","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-24T14:21:02.000Z","2012-05-08T18:55:10.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.",30,,"mad","RandomThinker","It really depends how many cars get added to the fleet between now and then, and what counts as ""human injury"". Low odds because accidents of that severity are extremely rare in my office's cars, and we probably are in same O(n).",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-06T02:34:52.000Z","2012-05-08T18:55:10.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS",5,,"Expipiplusone","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-26T15:10:22.000Z","2016-07-24T04:14:51.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS",12,,"JoshuaZ","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-28T15:37:35.000Z","2016-07-24T04:14:51.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS",9,,"btrettel","themusicgod1","I'll take a slightly more granular approach. 35% Trump wins. 50% for situation where Trump might consider extreme military action (which the military might disregard). 50% for the military disregarding the order.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-28T23:13:59.000Z","2016-07-24T04:14:51.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS",15,,"NickN","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T01:58:01.182Z","2016-07-24T04:14:51.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS",5,,"two2thehead","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-31T11:43:20.000Z","2016-07-24T04:14:51.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS",2,,"Bruno Parga","themusicgod1","40% of Trump winning * 5% of this happening if he does.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-31T21:33:52.000Z","2016-07-24T04:14:51.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS",4,,"Dapple","themusicgod1","Trump strikes me as too intelligent to find his way into that situation.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-27T20:04:25.000Z","2016-07-24T04:14:51.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS",17,,"sole21000","themusicgod1","Assuming Trump has 20% chance of election. High probability if elected.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-27T06:58:08.000Z","2016-07-24T04:14:51.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS",43,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-24T04:14:52.000Z","2016-07-24T04:14:51.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS",1,,"Andrew MacFie","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-02T15:33:30.000Z","2016-07-24T04:14:51.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"WWIII starts before 2030.",4,,"sflicht","Dak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-25T19:10:08.000Z","2015-07-31T13:38:32.000Z","2030-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"WWIII starts before 2030.",3,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Dak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-04T06:37:20.000Z","2015-07-31T13:38:32.000Z","2030-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"WWIII starts before 2030.",7,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Dak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-13T22:46:42.000Z","2015-07-31T13:38:32.000Z","2030-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"WWIII starts before 2030.",5,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Dak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-27T01:42:20.000Z","2015-07-31T13:38:32.000Z","2030-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"WWIII starts before 2030.",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","Dak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-27T07:12:52.000Z","2015-07-31T13:38:32.000Z","2030-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"WWIII starts before 2030.",6,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Dak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-27T07:50:59.000Z","2015-07-31T13:38:32.000Z","2030-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"WWIII starts before 2030.",5,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Dak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-17T05:46:51.000Z","2015-07-31T13:38:32.000Z","2030-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"WWIII starts before 2030.",6,,"davatk","Dak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-26T16:44:51.000Z","2015-07-31T13:38:32.000Z","2030-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"WWIII starts before 2030.",55,,"Dak","Dak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-31T13:38:32.000Z","2015-07-31T13:38:32.000Z","2030-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"WWIII starts before 2030.",6,,"JoshuaZ","Dak","Why so high an estimate? ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-31T18:00:19.000Z","2015-07-31T13:38:32.000Z","2030-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"WWIII starts before 2030.",15,,"David","Dak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-01T10:14:18.000Z","2015-07-31T13:38:32.000Z","2030-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"WWIII starts before 2030.",1,,"espore","Dak","I very much doubt so. The world is becoming more and more stable and wars would be ever more catastrophic",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-02T20:51:32.000Z","2015-07-31T13:38:32.000Z","2030-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"WWIII starts before 2030.",7,,"btrettel","Dak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-03T15:56:28.000Z","2015-07-31T13:38:32.000Z","2030-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"WWIII starts before 2030.",4,,"silacoid","Dak","This is hard to measure. Would a war between a group of arabic/african countries and the US/EU count as a world war?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-05T12:25:03.000Z","2015-07-31T13:38:32.000Z","2030-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS",0,,"splorridge","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-13T08:11:52.000Z","2016-06-11T15:29:40.000Z","2056-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS",0,,"KnaveOfAllTrades","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-19T21:39:59.000Z","2016-06-11T15:29:40.000Z","2056-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS",0,,"theredarmy","themusicgod1","Caitlyn Jenner is to old to start a political career and does not have enough money, maybe Kim Cardashian.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-14T01:09:42.000Z","2016-06-11T15:29:40.000Z","2056-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS",0,,"bobpage","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-12T19:33:51.000Z","2016-06-11T15:29:40.000Z","2056-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS",42,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-11T15:29:40.000Z","2016-06-11T15:29:40.000Z","2056-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS",0,,"btrettel","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-28T23:46:10.000Z","2016-06-11T15:29:40.000Z","2056-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS",0,,"Dapple","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-08T02:11:27.000Z","2016-06-11T15:29:40.000Z","2056-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS",0,,"EloiseRosen","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-22T01:30:08.000Z","2016-06-11T15:29:40.000Z","2056-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS",0,,"Paul.David.Carr","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-21T19:58:27.000Z","2016-06-11T15:29:40.000Z","2056-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS",0,,"TheCometKing","themusicgod1","To be clear is this for the current election or at some point in her life, because either way it rounds to 0 at prediction book levels of accuracy, but there is a big difference in my head.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-15T00:59:38.000Z","2016-06-11T15:29:40.000Z","2056-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""",39,,"Eigil Rischel","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T16:05:14.520Z","2020-11-20T19:47:45.728Z","2021-12-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""",25,,"RowanE","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T13:39:16.459Z","2020-11-20T19:47:45.728Z","2021-12-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""",33,,"DanielFilan","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:53:09.301Z","2020-11-20T19:47:45.728Z","2021-12-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""",25,,"Yonge","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:35:30.320Z","2020-11-20T19:47:45.728Z","2021-12-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""",25,,"Measure","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:08:03.730Z","2020-11-20T19:47:45.728Z","2021-12-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""",37,,"Slider","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:07:14.618Z","2020-11-20T19:47:45.728Z","2021-12-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""",25,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T19:50:55.236Z","2020-11-20T19:47:45.728Z","2021-12-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""",17,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T20:06:30.206Z","2020-11-20T19:47:45.728Z","2021-12-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""",45,,"jungwon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T23:40:21.288Z","2020-11-20T19:47:45.728Z","2021-12-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""",30,,"Andreas S","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T23:55:39.847Z","2020-11-20T19:47:45.728Z","2021-12-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""",25,,"jp","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T14:39:35.370Z","2020-11-20T19:47:45.728Z","2021-12-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Airbnb to be acquired by 2025",5,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea","As an aside: Carl Icahn will never ""pick up Airbnb on the cheap""",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-27T07:40:44.000Z","2015-07-17T21:25:52.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Airbnb to be acquired by 2025",38,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-27T14:19:25.000Z","2015-07-17T21:25:52.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Airbnb to be acquired by 2025",40,,"Medea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-01T22:32:30.000Z","2015-07-17T21:25:52.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Airbnb to be acquired by 2025",57,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-22T04:17:05.000Z","2015-07-17T21:25:52.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Airbnb to be acquired by 2025",30,,"elephantower","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-10T07:50:45.000Z","2015-07-17T21:25:52.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Airbnb to be acquired by 2025",25,,"RandomThinker","InquilineKea","Wait till a crash, then someone like Barry Diller or Carl Icahn will pick it up on the cheap.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-20T22:31:22.000Z","2015-07-17T21:25:52.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Airbnb to be acquired by 2025",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-17T21:25:52.000Z","2015-07-17T21:25:52.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Airbnb to be acquired by 2025",46,,"Baeboo","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T03:18:31.077Z","2015-07-17T21:25:52.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Airbnb to be acquired by 2025",10,,"sdr","InquilineKea"," 3, The largest fortune 500 real estate corp (CBRE)   have a total asset of $7.7B ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CBRE_Group ). This limits acquirer to large investment groups (ING, Berkshire, etc). Somewhat unlikely.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-20T16:15:09.000Z","2015-07-17T21:25:52.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Airbnb to be acquired by 2025",35,,"RandomThinker","InquilineKea","Dead by 2025 = 30%, split acquired or independent in half = 35%",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-20T22:32:10.000Z","2015-07-17T21:25:52.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Airbnb to be acquired by 2025",45,,"pranomostro","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:06:29.841Z","2015-07-17T21:25:52.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will Rob Wiblin post more than 12 tweets (not including retweets) between 9am PST on Fri 11/20 and 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",50,"NO","Nicholas","Amanda N","see http://www.tweetstats.com/graphs/robertwiblin/zoom/2020/Nov though the data's somewhat muddled","Resolution: Rob Wiblin posted 6 tweets between Nov 20 and Nov 22.

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
This question just counts tweets Rob makes, not replies or retweets. E.G. This counts as one tweet: https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1327268863399108608.
Resolves according to Rob Wiblin’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/robertwiblin","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T19:24:43.332Z","2020-11-13T17:01:26.098Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will Rob Wiblin post more than 12 tweets (not including retweets) between 9am PST on Fri 11/20 and 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",60,"NO","Ethan Perez","Amanda N","","Resolution: Rob Wiblin posted 6 tweets between Nov 20 and Nov 22.

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
This question just counts tweets Rob makes, not replies or retweets. E.G. This counts as one tweet: https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1327268863399108608.
Resolves according to Rob Wiblin’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/robertwiblin","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:38:13.689Z","2020-11-13T17:01:26.098Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will Rob Wiblin post more than 12 tweets (not including retweets) between 9am PST on Fri 11/20 and 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",30,"NO","Amanda N","Amanda N","Nov 12: 3
Nov 11: 4
Nov 10: 8","Resolution: Rob Wiblin posted 6 tweets between Nov 20 and Nov 22.

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
This question just counts tweets Rob makes, not replies or retweets. E.G. This counts as one tweet: https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1327268863399108608.
Resolves according to Rob Wiblin’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/robertwiblin","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:50:26.076Z","2020-11-13T17:01:26.098Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will Rob Wiblin post more than 12 tweets (not including retweets) between 9am PST on Fri 11/20 and 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",40,"NO","Nicholas","Amanda N","revising down b/c EAGx","Resolution: Rob Wiblin posted 6 tweets between Nov 20 and Nov 22.

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
This question just counts tweets Rob makes, not replies or retweets. E.G. This counts as one tweet: https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1327268863399108608.
Resolves according to Rob Wiblin’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/robertwiblin","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T04:53:25.354Z","2020-11-13T17:01:26.098Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will Rob Wiblin post more than 12 tweets (not including retweets) between 9am PST on Fri 11/20 and 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",50,"NO","Andreas S","Amanda N","","Resolution: Rob Wiblin posted 6 tweets between Nov 20 and Nov 22.

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
This question just counts tweets Rob makes, not replies or retweets. E.G. This counts as one tweet: https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1327268863399108608.
Resolves according to Rob Wiblin’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/robertwiblin","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-19T23:13:55.042Z","2020-11-13T17:01:26.098Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will Rob Wiblin post more than 12 tweets (not including retweets) between 9am PST on Fri 11/20 and 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",55,"NO","Dilhan P","Amanda N","Revising down based on possibility I was overcounting and b/c he is presenting at EAGx","Resolution: Rob Wiblin posted 6 tweets between Nov 20 and Nov 22.

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
This question just counts tweets Rob makes, not replies or retweets. E.G. This counts as one tweet: https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1327268863399108608.
Resolves according to Rob Wiblin’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/robertwiblin","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T22:54:17.392Z","2020-11-13T17:01:26.098Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will Rob Wiblin post more than 12 tweets (not including retweets) between 9am PST on Fri 11/20 and 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",40,"NO","mattvdm","Amanda N","below base rate due to EAGx conference","Resolution: Rob Wiblin posted 6 tweets between Nov 20 and Nov 22.

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
This question just counts tweets Rob makes, not replies or retweets. E.G. This counts as one tweet: https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1327268863399108608.
Resolves according to Rob Wiblin’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/robertwiblin","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T10:36:36.087Z","2020-11-13T17:01:26.098Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will Rob Wiblin post more than 12 tweets (not including retweets) between 9am PST on Fri 11/20 and 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",55,"NO","Will B","Amanda N","","Resolution: Rob Wiblin posted 6 tweets between Nov 20 and Nov 22.

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
This question just counts tweets Rob makes, not replies or retweets. E.G. This counts as one tweet: https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1327268863399108608.
Resolves according to Rob Wiblin’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/robertwiblin","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T00:47:15.338Z","2020-11-13T17:01:26.098Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will Rob Wiblin post more than 12 tweets (not including retweets) between 9am PST on Fri 11/20 and 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",40,"NO","marcin.kowrygo","Amanda N","","Resolution: Rob Wiblin posted 6 tweets between Nov 20 and Nov 22.

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
This question just counts tweets Rob makes, not replies or retweets. E.G. This counts as one tweet: https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1327268863399108608.
Resolves according to Rob Wiblin’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/robertwiblin","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T17:18:47.082Z","2020-11-13T17:01:26.098Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will Rob Wiblin post more than 12 tweets (not including retweets) between 9am PST on Fri 11/20 and 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",75,"NO","Dilhan P","Amanda N","Maybe I'm counting incorrectly but seems like he average around 10 per day (i.e. 20 in 2-day periods), though maybe a little less frequently on the days of the week in the question","Resolution: Rob Wiblin posted 6 tweets between Nov 20 and Nov 22.

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
This question just counts tweets Rob makes, not replies or retweets. E.G. This counts as one tweet: https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1327268863399108608.
Resolves according to Rob Wiblin’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/robertwiblin","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-14T17:00:17.780Z","2020-11-13T17:01:26.098Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will Rob Wiblin post more than 12 tweets (not including retweets) between 9am PST on Fri 11/20 and 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",65,"NO","Abigail T","Amanda N","This has been true every weekend out of the past three, but none of the three before that (based on tweetstats and assuming replies don't count) ","Resolution: Rob Wiblin posted 6 tweets between Nov 20 and Nov 22.

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
This question just counts tweets Rob makes, not replies or retweets. E.G. This counts as one tweet: https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1327268863399108608.
Resolves according to Rob Wiblin’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/robertwiblin","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-15T02:07:03.527Z","2020-11-13T17:01:26.098Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will Rob Wiblin post more than 12 tweets (not including retweets) between 9am PST on Fri 11/20 and 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",75,"NO","William S","Amanda N","From http://www.tweetstats.com/graphs/robertwiblin it seems like tweets and replies are around 12 per day, but this time period covers two days","Resolution: Rob Wiblin posted 6 tweets between Nov 20 and Nov 22.

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
This question just counts tweets Rob makes, not replies or retweets. E.G. This counts as one tweet: https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1327268863399108608.
Resolves according to Rob Wiblin’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/robertwiblin","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:54:43.297Z","2020-11-13T17:01:26.098Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will Rob Wiblin post more than 12 tweets (not including retweets) between 9am PST on Fri 11/20 and 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",50,"NO","William S","Amanda N","http://www.tweetstats.com/graphs/robertwiblin","Resolution: Rob Wiblin posted 6 tweets between Nov 20 and Nov 22.

This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
This question just counts tweets Rob makes, not replies or retweets. E.G. This counts as one tweet: https://twitter.com/robertwiblin/status/1327268863399108608.
Resolves according to Rob Wiblin’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/robertwiblin","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:19:58.955Z","2020-11-13T17:01:26.098Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken",60,,"benwr","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-12T05:10:21.000Z","2011-06-27T14:12:13.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken",45,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-04T20:35:05.000Z","2011-06-27T14:12:13.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-06-27T14:12:13.000Z","2011-06-27T14:12:13.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken",40,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-06-27T17:18:45.000Z","2011-06-27T14:12:13.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken",50,,"gimpf","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-14T07:26:14.000Z","2011-06-27T14:12:13.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken",50,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-12T13:44:54.000Z","2011-06-27T14:12:13.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken",50,,"rebellionkid","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-06-22T23:08:01.000Z","2011-06-27T14:12:13.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken",75,,"anonym","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-30T04:35:43.000Z","2011-06-27T14:12:13.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken",25,,"adbge","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-30T16:55:10.000Z","2011-06-27T14:12:13.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken",6,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T23:37:38.000Z","2011-06-27T14:12:13.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken",14,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-08T21:08:02.000Z","2011-06-27T14:12:13.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken",55,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:02:36.803Z","2011-06-27T14:12:13.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ",25,,"gwern","NathanMcKnight","marijuana will be legalized first... the federal level hates legalizing stuff",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-11T23:17:39.000Z","2011-11-11T22:38:51.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ",15,,"Gedusa","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-12T16:13:43.000Z","2011-11-11T22:38:51.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ",12,,"pranomostro","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:46:01.010Z","2011-11-11T22:38:51.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ",0,,"deleteyourbrain","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:35:51.435Z","2011-11-11T22:38:51.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ",75,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-11T22:38:51.000Z","2011-11-11T22:38:51.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ",30,,"lavalamp","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-11T23:19:43.000Z","2011-11-11T22:38:51.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ",22,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-13T17:08:06.000Z","2011-11-11T22:38:51.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ",20,,"chemotaxis101","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-15T20:18:49.000Z","2011-11-11T22:38:51.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ",47,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T21:09:16.000Z","2011-11-11T22:38:51.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ",15,,"Pablo","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-29T23:21:19.000Z","2011-11-11T22:38:51.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.",5,,"lavalamp","NathanMcKnight","assuming you mean one that lets you communicate as effectively as speech",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-11T23:13:37.000Z","2011-11-11T23:00:41.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.",55,,"gwern","NathanMcKnight","anyone working on brain-to-brain? plenty of brain-computers but brain-to-brain seems like a considerable step forward",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-11T23:16:02.000Z","2011-11-11T23:00:41.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.",25,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight","Clinical trials seem unlikely. Why would this technology be used/tested in a clinical context? ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-12T03:00:05.000Z","2011-11-11T23:00:41.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.",70,,"Anubhav","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-12T03:56:32.000Z","2011-11-11T23:00:41.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.",5,,"fork","NathanMcKnight","This is already possible, but there isn't any reason for it and it's considerably dangerous. I don't see that changing until communicating speech/thoughts is possible.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-12T06:48:29.000Z","2011-11-11T23:00:41.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.",85,,"Porejide","NathanMcKnight","interpreting this as higher level, eeg or ecog coupled with something like tms. also interpreting ignoring the ""clinical"" bit. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-22T01:16:16.000Z","2011-11-11T23:00:41.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.",70,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-11T23:00:41.000Z","2011-11-11T23:00:41.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.",25,,"chemotaxis101","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-15T20:17:26.000Z","2011-11-11T23:00:41.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.",53,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T05:31:05.000Z","2011-11-11T23:00:41.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.",20,,"pranomostro","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:42:16.216Z","2011-11-11T23:00:41.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",33,,"Noa Nabeshima","Richard N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T21:59:55.372Z","2020-11-22T23:39:32.870Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",36,,"Noa Nabeshima","Richard N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T21:59:48.689Z","2020-11-22T23:39:32.870Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",30,,"Edward Kmett","Richard N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-07T00:54:47.602Z","2020-11-22T23:39:32.870Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",29,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Richard N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T09:04:10.348Z","2020-11-22T23:39:32.870Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",21,,"Owain_Evans","Richard N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T15:23:40.346Z","2020-11-22T23:39:32.870Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",20,,"meanderingmoose","Richard N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T15:52:32.452Z","2020-11-22T23:39:32.870Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",29,,"Nicholas Kluge","Richard N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T18:02:59.898Z","2020-11-22T23:39:32.870Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",60,,"adamShimi","Richard N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T22:38:29.545Z","2020-11-22T23:39:32.870Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",45,,"algon33","Richard N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T11:02:53.225Z","2020-11-22T23:39:32.870Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",42,,"algon33","Richard N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T11:02:57.180Z","2020-11-22T23:39:32.870Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",39,,"algon33","Richard N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T11:06:13.173Z","2020-11-22T23:39:32.870Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",36,,"algon33","Richard N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T11:14:16.247Z","2020-11-22T23:39:32.870Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",25,,"peter.c.mccluskey","Richard N","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T17:12:20.846Z","2020-11-22T23:39:32.870Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",40,,"Richard N","Richard N","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T15:53:51.248Z","2020-11-22T23:39:32.870Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",35,,"Richard N","Richard N","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T23:40:51.832Z","2020-11-22T23:39:32.870Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",30,,"Richard N","Richard N","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T23:39:32.877Z","2020-11-22T23:39:32.870Z","2120-11-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.",22,,"Grognor","Grognor",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-08T19:28:00.000Z","2012-04-08T19:28:00.000Z","2051-01-01T06:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.",20,,"Jayson Virissimo","Grognor",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-09T11:27:51.000Z","2012-04-08T19:28:00.000Z","2051-01-01T06:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.",2,,"Ken","Grognor","Can't see the cost of going to space going down fast enough to matter",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-11T16:31:05.000Z","2012-04-08T19:28:00.000Z","2051-01-01T06:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.",15,,"RobertLumley","Grognor",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-09T13:45:32.000Z","2012-04-08T19:28:00.000Z","2051-01-01T06:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.",15,,"RandomThinker","Grognor","Too expensive.  Pool is small.  Assuming life expectancy of 70, that person is aged 32 now.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-11T16:29:24.000Z","2012-04-08T19:28:00.000Z","2051-01-01T06:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.",1,,"Oscar_Cunningham","Grognor",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-20T11:39:49.000Z","2012-04-08T19:28:00.000Z","2051-01-01T06:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.",1,,"JoshuaZ","Grognor",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-25T14:54:30.000Z","2012-04-08T19:28:00.000Z","2051-01-01T06:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.",47,,"themusicgod1","Grognor",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T00:38:14.000Z","2012-04-08T19:28:00.000Z","2051-01-01T06:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.",10,,"Ben Doherty","Grognor","with commercial space flight, it is now 'only money' but ther probably won't be the infrastructure for keeping the body anywhere useful. They might just flick it out into an orbit somewhere though.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-09T07:28:01.000Z","2012-04-08T19:28:00.000Z","2051-01-01T06:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.",25,,"Isaac","Grognor",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-09T10:39:55.000Z","2012-04-08T19:28:00.000Z","2051-01-01T06:00:00.000Z"
"“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”",1,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T03:00:40.150Z","2010-07-30T05:46:44.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”",0,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T08:50:14.000Z","2010-07-30T05:46:44.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”",0,,"bobpage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-12T03:28:46.000Z","2010-07-30T05:46:44.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”",3,,"faws","gwern","Not that they would help, but I could see politicians who feel pressured to be seen doing something against a perceived looming unfriendly AI threat mandating something like that. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-18T16:12:29.000Z","2010-07-30T05:46:44.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”",5,,"gwern","gwern","parsing it a little more and thinking about the conjunctions involved",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-18T16:57:42.000Z","2010-07-30T05:46:44.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”",0,,"WilliamKiely","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-29T02:44:29.000Z","2010-07-30T05:46:44.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”",43,,"themusicgod1","gwern","what's a school?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T23:33:34.000Z","2010-07-30T05:46:44.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”",4,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:10:27.000Z","2010-07-30T05:46:44.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”",30,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T05:46:44.000Z","2010-07-30T05:46:44.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”",1,,"JoshuaZ","gwern","The real question is if old people will be buying robot insurance from Old Glory. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T05:51:28.000Z","2010-07-30T05:46:44.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”",0,,"Tiresias","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-20T06:37:40.000Z","2010-07-30T05:46:44.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”",2,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:27:47.297Z","2010-07-30T05:46:44.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".",15,,"CellBioGuy","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T07:50:39.611Z","2020-11-30T19:57:26.453Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".",19,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:21:18.236Z","2020-11-30T19:57:26.453Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".",20,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:21:15.863Z","2020-11-30T19:57:26.453Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".",10,,"AnthonyC","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:51:48.044Z","2020-11-30T19:57:26.453Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".",10,,"adamShimi","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:02:42.994Z","2020-11-30T19:57:26.453Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".",5,,"Pialgo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:11:38.337Z","2020-11-30T19:57:26.453Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".",7,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:38:40.036Z","2020-11-30T19:57:26.453Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".",49,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:35:36.388Z","2020-11-30T19:57:26.453Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".",21,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:35:41.139Z","2020-11-30T19:57:26.453Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".",47,,"algon33","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:35:42.698Z","2020-11-30T19:57:26.453Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".",10,,"Michael H","Michael H","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T19:57:26.460Z","2020-11-30T19:57:26.453Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".",10,,"Yousif","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T22:33:49.656Z","2020-11-30T19:57:26.453Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".",10,,"Emiya","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:59:44.297Z","2020-11-30T19:57:26.453Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey",16,,"Pablo","Pablo","For some reason, I keep changing my mind on this one.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T07:39:23.000Z","2012-10-01T07:01:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey",20,,"Pablo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T07:01:28.000Z","2012-10-01T07:01:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey",12,,"Pablo","Pablo","But in this Powerpoint presentation, he seems to claim the event will likely happen by 2012! http://goo.gl/TtLCS

I'm lowering my estimate.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T07:10:48.000Z","2012-10-01T07:01:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey",2,,"Baeboo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T03:21:00.712Z","2012-10-01T07:01:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey",35,,"Tuxedage","Pablo","I think you guys are underestimating the probability. I'm assuming that Aubrey de Grey believes that this will happen with greater than 50% probability, thus, I'm leaning towards his probability estimate, as he knows more than me.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-14T03:12:58.000Z","2012-10-01T07:01:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey",6,,"Baeboo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T02:21:52.271Z","2012-10-01T07:01:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey",5,,"Baeboo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-13T03:28:32.369Z","2012-10-01T07:01:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey",20,,"RandomThinker","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T07:14:12.000Z","2012-10-01T07:01:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey",10,,"gwern","Pablo","just to carry out 1 installment requires close to 9 years - 3 year average * 3 = 9.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T19:20:43.000Z","2012-10-01T07:01:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey",15,,"chemotaxis101","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-13T17:47:34.000Z","2012-10-01T07:01:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey",10,,"iconreforged","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-14T00:26:58.000Z","2012-10-01T07:01:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey",10,,"Leo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-14T07:14:15.000Z","2012-10-01T07:01:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey",15,,"JoshuaZ","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-14T20:05:15.000Z","2012-10-01T07:01:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey",8,,"pranomostro","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:43:29.542Z","2012-10-01T07:01:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021",45,,"Waring","sflicht",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-02T13:37:11.000Z","2016-04-28T03:50:23.000Z","2021-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021",75,,"mbohler62","sflicht",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-30T03:25:04.000Z","2016-04-28T03:50:23.000Z","2021-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021",73,,"Paul.David.Carr","sflicht",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-29T17:39:29.000Z","2016-04-28T03:50:23.000Z","2021-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021",80,,"sflicht","sflicht",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-28T03:50:23.000Z","2016-04-28T03:50:23.000Z","2021-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021",62,,"themusicgod1","sflicht",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-28T06:19:01.000Z","2016-04-28T03:50:23.000Z","2021-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021",64,,"JoshuaZ","sflicht",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-28T12:57:50.000Z","2016-04-28T03:50:23.000Z","2021-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021",65,,"atomicspacemann","sflicht","I would include a 'failed mission' post ejection, or simple test payload. ie. ""Evidence of SpaceX hardware near Mars before 2021, even if inert when it gets there.""",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-23T13:26:16.000Z","2016-04-28T03:50:23.000Z","2021-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021",68,,"Paul.David.Carr","sflicht","Does a landing count?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-15T13:55:43.000Z","2016-04-28T03:50:23.000Z","2021-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021",61,,"JoshuaZ","sflicht",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-01T14:42:11.000Z","2016-04-28T03:50:23.000Z","2021-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021",90,,"penten","sflicht",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-01T11:41:56.000Z","2016-04-28T03:50:23.000Z","2021-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021",85,,"PipFoweraker","sflicht",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-16T01:19:16.000Z","2016-04-28T03:50:23.000Z","2021-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021",80,,"trishume","sflicht",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-09T05:19:36.000Z","2016-04-28T03:50:23.000Z","2021-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",60,,"Edward Kmett","Richard N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-07T00:56:09.053Z","2020-11-23T15:54:12.628Z","2121-11-23T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",29,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Richard N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T09:04:11.745Z","2020-11-23T15:54:12.628Z","2121-11-23T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",65,,"Owain_Evans","Richard N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T15:23:49.656Z","2020-11-23T15:54:12.628Z","2121-11-23T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",50,,"meanderingmoose","Richard N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T15:52:42.020Z","2020-11-23T15:54:12.628Z","2121-11-23T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",47,,"Nicholas Kluge","Richard N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T18:03:00.647Z","2020-11-23T15:54:12.628Z","2121-11-23T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",25,,"adamShimi","Richard N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T22:38:54.204Z","2020-11-23T15:54:12.628Z","2121-11-23T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",35,,"algon33","Richard N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T11:09:29.483Z","2020-11-23T15:54:12.628Z","2121-11-23T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",70,,"peter.c.mccluskey","Richard N","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T17:12:06.585Z","2020-11-23T15:54:12.628Z","2121-11-23T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",41,,"Noa Nabeshima","Richard N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T22:00:16.917Z","2020-11-23T15:54:12.628Z","2121-11-23T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",45,,"Richard N","Richard N","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T15:54:12.635Z","2020-11-23T15:54:12.628Z","2121-11-23T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.",7,,"Edward Kmett","Richard N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-07T00:56:40.869Z","2020-11-23T15:54:42.416Z","2121-11-23T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.",55,,"Rafael Harth","Richard N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T10:57:28.317Z","2020-11-23T15:54:42.416Z","2121-11-23T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.",42,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Richard N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T09:04:30.790Z","2020-11-23T15:54:42.416Z","2121-11-23T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.",17,,"Owain_Evans","Richard N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T15:24:01.125Z","2020-11-23T15:54:42.416Z","2121-11-23T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.",70,,"meanderingmoose","Richard N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T15:52:57.338Z","2020-11-23T15:54:42.416Z","2121-11-23T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.",19,,"Nicholas Kluge","Richard N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T18:03:04.972Z","2020-11-23T15:54:42.416Z","2121-11-23T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.",15,,"adamShimi","Richard N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T22:39:14.327Z","2020-11-23T15:54:42.416Z","2121-11-23T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.",39,,"algon33","Richard N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T11:10:25.295Z","2020-11-23T15:54:42.416Z","2121-11-23T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.",25,,"algon33","Richard N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T11:11:29.597Z","2020-11-23T15:54:42.416Z","2121-11-23T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.",27,,"algon33","Richard N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T11:11:45.882Z","2020-11-23T15:54:42.416Z","2121-11-23T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.",28,,"algon33","Richard N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T11:11:47.110Z","2020-11-23T15:54:42.416Z","2121-11-23T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.",25,,"algon33","Richard N",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T11:14:32.283Z","2020-11-23T15:54:42.416Z","2121-11-23T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.",5,,"peter.c.mccluskey","Richard N","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T17:10:55.345Z","2020-11-23T15:54:42.416Z","2121-11-23T00:00:00.000Z"
"Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.",15,,"Richard N","Richard N","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T15:54:42.426Z","2020-11-23T15:54:42.416Z","2121-11-23T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150",45,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Hmm, phrased in that context, my estimate has to go down. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T02:09:52.000Z","2011-11-16T14:31:13.000Z","2085-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150",51,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-16T14:31:13.000Z","2011-11-16T14:31:13.000Z","2085-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150",55,,"gwern","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-16T21:47:16.000Z","2011-11-16T14:31:13.000Z","2085-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150",1,,"Harbinger1","JoshuaZ","not plausible.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T06:08:07.000Z","2011-11-16T14:31:13.000Z","2085-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150",50,,"Anubhav","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T09:21:43.000Z","2011-11-16T14:31:13.000Z","2085-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150",70,,"Malgidus","JoshuaZ","This would mean they would be 115 in 2050. 60% chance Singularity, plus biotech, giving this 70%. I would give it 90% that someone born in 1935 will at some time live to 150, but they may ""die"" for a while.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-27T20:34:24.000Z","2011-11-16T14:31:13.000Z","2085-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150",20,,"David","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-19T13:44:42.000Z","2011-11-16T14:31:13.000Z","2085-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150",35,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Updating on continued failure of serious longevity techniques. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-19T16:09:11.000Z","2011-11-16T14:31:13.000Z","2085-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150",28,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-25T17:36:25.000Z","2011-11-16T14:31:13.000Z","2085-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150",30,,"NathanMcKnight","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-07T21:39:22.000Z","2011-11-16T14:31:13.000Z","2085-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150",10,,"aseyfarth","JoshuaZ","We would have to currently be working very hard on maintaining a wealthy 81 year old's life, which I'm not aware we're doing, but maybe I wouldn't know even if we were",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-30T19:43:23.000Z","2011-11-16T14:31:13.000Z","2085-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150",40,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:25:57.234Z","2011-11-16T14:31:13.000Z","2085-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150",0,,"deleteyourbrain","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:28:38.780Z","2011-11-16T14:31:13.000Z","2085-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"EU to dissolve by 2040.",20,,"amadeu","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-07T19:59:30.404Z","2011-01-25T14:59:06.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"EU to dissolve by 2040.",30,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T03:25:14.201Z","2011-01-25T14:59:06.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"EU to dissolve by 2040.",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-25T14:59:07.000Z","2011-01-25T14:59:06.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"EU to dissolve by 2040.",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T03:18:38.000Z","2011-01-25T14:59:06.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"EU to dissolve by 2040.",20,,"Medea","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-26T23:55:38.000Z","2011-01-25T14:59:06.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"EU to dissolve by 2040.",50,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:43:49.340Z","2011-01-25T14:59:06.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"EU to dissolve by 2040.",44,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-21T20:56:50.000Z","2011-01-25T14:59:06.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"EU to dissolve by 2040.",30,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:28:31.308Z","2011-01-25T14:59:06.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"EU to dissolve by 2040.",50,,"Sniffnoy","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T10:03:18.000Z","2011-01-25T14:59:06.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"EU to dissolve by 2040.",40,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T10:00:16.000Z","2011-01-25T14:59:06.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"EU to dissolve by 2040.",50,,"gimpf","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-02-03T21:11:33.000Z","2011-01-25T14:59:06.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",20,,"Pablo","Pablo","I should have broken this conjunctive statement into separate predictions.  I can now see that my previous estimate wasn't made in full awareness that the conjuncts had to be all true. Updating.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-02T02:55:36.000Z","2012-10-01T06:42:11.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",50,,"Pablo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T06:42:11.000Z","2012-10-01T06:42:11.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",30,,"RandomThinker","Pablo","Russia joining EU is least likely out of this combo prediction.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T07:15:38.000Z","2012-10-01T06:42:11.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",5,,"gwern","Pablo","no way. Russia is not joining, ever - they wouldn't want to and the EU doesn't want them in, and right now it's a serious 50% question whether the EU will meaningfully survive to 2040.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T19:17:34.000Z","2012-10-01T06:42:11.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",5,,"chemotaxis101","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-13T17:48:51.000Z","2012-10-01T06:42:11.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",4,,"seifip","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-14T09:46:49.000Z","2012-10-01T06:42:11.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",4,,"themusicgod1","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:26:51.000Z","2012-10-01T06:42:11.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",5,,"pranomostro","Pablo","Conjunctions – every single one of these is not that improbable, but the conjuction!",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:44:40.685Z","2012-10-01T06:42:11.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",0,,"Baeboo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T02:12:30.180Z","2012-10-01T06:42:11.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",5,,"Jayson Virissimo","Pablo","Russia will not be assimilated.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-02T03:51:00.000Z","2012-10-01T06:42:11.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",2,,"pranomostro","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:44:48.100Z","2012-10-01T06:42:11.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",1,,"6thNapoleon","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-08T20:54:56.685Z","2012-10-01T06:42:11.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032",65,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-27T23:53:26.000Z","2012-08-27T23:53:26.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032",70,,"gwern","RandomThinker","so I guess this is _de facto_ a bet on the Chinese lunar missions not doing well: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Lunar_Exploration_Program",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-28T02:03:53.000Z","2012-08-27T23:53:26.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032",0,,"1337_w0n","RandomThinker","0.001% I place a high confidence on men already having visited, in 1969.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-28T02:36:31.000Z","2012-08-27T23:53:26.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032",60,,"JoshuaZ","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-28T14:48:30.000Z","2012-08-27T23:53:26.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032",60,,"Ken","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-12T16:32:22.000Z","2012-08-27T23:53:26.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032",5,,"Raahul_Kumar","RandomThinker","By 2032 a lunar mission will be possible at less cost than ever before.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-16T07:15:53.000Z","2012-08-27T23:53:26.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032",44,,"themusicgod1","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-11T02:15:54.000Z","2012-08-27T23:53:26.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032",66,,"pranomostro","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-10T20:51:07.188Z","2012-08-27T23:53:26.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032",77,,"Baeboo","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T00:24:05.938Z","2012-08-27T23:53:26.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032",73,,"Baeboo","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T00:31:06.521Z","2012-08-27T23:53:26.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032",60,,"amadeu","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-07T20:50:00.369Z","2012-08-27T23:53:26.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ",1,,"Pablo","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-29T23:16:28.000Z","2011-09-02T20:21:13.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ",0,,"gwern","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-03T18:50:09.000Z","2011-09-02T20:21:13.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ",1,,"fergus","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-05T03:31:42.000Z","2011-09-02T20:21:13.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ",95,,"Alexander Kruel","JoshuaZ","""In a 2008 poll of 17 countries, 15% of those surveyed believed the US government was responsible for the attacks, 7% believed Israel was and another 7% believed..."" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9/11_conspiracy_theories",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-05T14:27:49.000Z","2011-09-02T20:21:13.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ",5,,"Alexander Kruel","JoshuaZ","Whoops...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-05T14:28:15.000Z","2011-09-02T20:21:13.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ",0,,"Malgidus","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-27T22:27:13.000Z","2011-09-02T20:21:13.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ",47,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T02:30:28.000Z","2011-09-02T20:21:13.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ",1,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-03T21:44:20.482Z","2011-09-02T20:21:13.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ",1,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-02T20:21:16.000Z","2011-09-02T20:21:13.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ",5,,"bobpage","JoshuaZ","Funny thing about consensus is that it doesn't need to resemble truth",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-02T21:04:31.000Z","2011-09-02T20:21:13.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ",0,,"Ken","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-10T16:49:10.000Z","2011-09-02T20:21:13.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ",1,,"Alexander Kruel","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-08T20:12:50.000Z","2011-09-02T20:21:13.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.",1,,"JoshuaZ","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-11T18:46:47.000Z","2009-10-21T21:43:16.000Z","3009-10-21T21:43:16.000Z"
"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.",1,,"pranomostro","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T23:27:43.000Z","2009-10-21T21:43:16.000Z","3009-10-21T21:43:16.000Z"
"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.",25,,"pranomostro","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T23:28:14.000Z","2009-10-21T21:43:16.000Z","3009-10-21T21:43:16.000Z"
"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.",50,,"TheScholar","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-21T21:43:16.000Z","2009-10-21T21:43:16.000Z","3009-10-21T21:43:16.000Z"
"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.",1,,"anonym","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-22T03:28:53.000Z","2009-10-21T21:43:16.000Z","3009-10-21T21:43:16.000Z"
"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.",0,,"VoiceOfAuthority","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-31T22:01:46.000Z","2009-10-21T21:43:16.000Z","3009-10-21T21:43:16.000Z"
"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.",0,,"Jack","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-11-12T05:55:47.000Z","2009-10-21T21:43:16.000Z","3009-10-21T21:43:16.000Z"
"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.",0,,"PotatoDumplings","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-01-05T05:28:29.000Z","2009-10-21T21:43:16.000Z","3009-10-21T21:43:16.000Z"
"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.",50,,"gwern","TheScholar","living in an ancestor simulation also counts. Per simulation argument, you only need 1 ancestor simulation and the odds=1/2. 2 ancestor simulations, 2/3 etc",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T06:35:24.000Z","2009-10-21T21:43:16.000Z","3009-10-21T21:43:16.000Z"
"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.",28,,"themusicgod1","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T22:59:09.000Z","2009-10-21T21:43:16.000Z","3009-10-21T21:43:16.000Z"
"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.",30,,"Baeboo","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T01:28:37.606Z","2009-10-21T21:43:16.000Z","3009-10-21T21:43:16.000Z"
"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.",0,,"PotatoDumplings","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-11-05T00:14:46.000Z","2009-10-21T21:43:16.000Z","3009-10-21T21:43:16.000Z"
"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)",65,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-04T17:01:58.000Z","2015-08-04T17:01:58.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)",60,,"HonoreDB","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-04T18:45:13.000Z","2015-08-04T17:01:58.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)",65,,"EloiseRosen","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-12T16:31:05.000Z","2015-08-04T17:01:58.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)",70,,"timujin","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-13T07:21:37.000Z","2015-08-04T17:01:58.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)",80,,"unexpectedEOF","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-13T17:13:52.000Z","2015-08-04T17:01:58.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)",25,,"Medea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-08T20:00:50.000Z","2015-08-04T17:01:58.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)",66,,"pranomostro","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:32:13.032Z","2015-08-04T17:01:58.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)",60,,"Baeboo","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T03:16:47.323Z","2015-08-04T17:01:58.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)",55,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-04T18:27:36.000Z","2015-08-04T17:01:58.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)",50,,"btrettel","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-07T17:31:49.000Z","2015-08-04T17:01:58.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)",30,,"btrettel","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-11T20:01:01.000Z","2015-08-04T17:01:58.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.",1,,"drgrigg","Paul.David.Carr","Such civilisations will be extremely rare.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-27T09:38:33.000Z","2016-04-26T13:56:00.000Z","2028-05-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.",4,,"trishume","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-09T05:21:50.000Z","2016-04-26T13:56:00.000Z","2028-05-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.",5,,"unexpectedEOF","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-21T18:34:48.000Z","2016-04-26T13:56:00.000Z","2028-05-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.",2,,"sflicht","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-28T03:51:15.000Z","2016-04-26T13:56:00.000Z","2028-05-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.",5,,"sflicht","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-28T03:51:25.000Z","2016-04-26T13:56:00.000Z","2028-05-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.",9,,"themusicgod1","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-26T17:12:17.000Z","2016-04-26T13:56:00.000Z","2028-05-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.",65,,"Paul.David.Carr","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-26T13:56:00.000Z","2016-04-26T13:56:00.000Z","2028-05-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.",5,,"PlacidPlatypus","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-26T16:45:03.000Z","2016-04-26T13:56:00.000Z","2028-05-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.",35,,"splorridge","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-26T16:06:20.000Z","2016-04-26T13:56:00.000Z","2028-05-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.",1,,"JoshuaZ","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-21T20:01:16.777Z","2016-04-26T13:56:00.000Z","2028-05-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.",1,,"NickN","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-21T19:10:32.021Z","2016-04-26T13:56:00.000Z","2028-05-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce",20,,"Pablo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T05:42:30.000Z","2012-10-01T05:42:30.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce",0,,"NathanMcKnight","Pablo","Vegetarian and vegan diets will continue to become more common, especially in the West, but looking at places like India where vegetarianism is well-established, we see that even after thousands of years, some people still eat meat. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T11:46:57.000Z","2012-10-01T05:42:30.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce",10,,"gwern","Pablo","Random: 'sentient' has been so badly abused and overloaded over the centuries that one could easily use one dictionary to prove that all animals are sentient, and another to prove that hardly any are.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T18:46:28.000Z","2012-10-01T05:42:30.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce",15,,"plewis22","Pablo","I disagree with the premise, so I treated it as *if and when* most of the world's population etc. My odds are still low, because I think that if it happens it will be for economic reasons more than ethical ones.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-08T09:13:42.000Z","2012-10-01T05:42:30.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce",20,,"sharanga","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-10T05:52:34.000Z","2012-10-01T05:42:30.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce",10,,"pranomostro","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:45:39.943Z","2012-10-01T05:42:30.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce",10,,"RandomThinker","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-08T08:36:39.000Z","2012-10-01T05:42:30.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce",5,,"Ben Doherty","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-14T06:09:25.000Z","2012-10-01T05:42:30.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce",50,,"themusicgod1","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:25:34.000Z","2012-10-01T05:42:30.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce",20,,"JesseClifton","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-28T23:14:03.000Z","2012-10-01T05:42:30.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).",0,,"Anubhav","Harbinger1","Conjunction fallacy... ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T04:09:08.000Z","2011-11-17T01:09:45.000Z","2039-12-15T01:09:45.000Z"
"The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).",0,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1","Harbinger, maybe try to make some sort term predictions or comment on some of the other predictions, wait a few months and then see how accurate your calibration is for the long term. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T04:11:02.000Z","2011-11-17T01:09:45.000Z","2039-12-15T01:09:45.000Z"
"The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).",0,,"Emanuel Rylke","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-29T15:25:58.000Z","2011-11-17T01:09:45.000Z","2039-12-15T01:09:45.000Z"
"The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).",5,,"themusicgod1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T23:01:56.000Z","2011-11-17T01:09:45.000Z","2039-12-15T01:09:45.000Z"
"The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).",60,,"Harbinger1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T01:09:45.000Z","2011-11-17T01:09:45.000Z","2039-12-15T01:09:45.000Z"
"The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).",1,,"Laurent Bossavit","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T08:29:25.000Z","2011-11-17T01:09:45.000Z","2039-12-15T01:09:45.000Z"
"The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).",0,,"lavalamp","Harbinger1","conjunctionitis!",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T17:10:08.000Z","2011-11-17T01:09:45.000Z","2039-12-15T01:09:45.000Z"
"The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).",1,,"gwern","Harbinger1","will judge as 'both WWIII and a domed city will have existed before 2040'",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T17:29:29.000Z","2011-11-17T01:09:45.000Z","2039-12-15T01:09:45.000Z"
"The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).",0,,"PipFoweraker","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-06T20:43:26.000Z","2011-11-17T01:09:45.000Z","2039-12-15T01:09:45.000Z"
"The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).",0,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-10T10:59:18.000Z","2011-11-17T01:09:45.000Z","2039-12-15T01:09:45.000Z"
"The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).",0,,"pranomostro","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:47:25.227Z","2011-11-17T01:09:45.000Z","2039-12-15T01:09:45.000Z"
"HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.",75,,"Harbinger1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T01:11:22.000Z","2011-11-17T01:11:22.000Z","2025-11-30T01:11:22.000Z"
"HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.",0,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1","Conjunction fallacy. Also, date needs to be fixed. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T02:02:11.000Z","2011-11-17T01:11:22.000Z","2025-11-30T01:11:22.000Z"
"HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.",0,,"Anubhav","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T04:08:12.000Z","2011-11-17T01:11:22.000Z","2025-11-30T01:11:22.000Z"
"HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.",0,,"kilobug","Harbinger1","5 new deadlier viruses ? Would require massive biological war... and then I won't be there to check PB ;)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-19T16:26:49.000Z","2011-11-17T01:11:22.000Z","2025-11-30T01:11:22.000Z"
"HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.",0,,"Medea","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-08T20:10:14.000Z","2011-11-17T01:11:22.000Z","2025-11-30T01:11:22.000Z"
"HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.",0,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:48:26.000Z","2011-11-17T01:11:22.000Z","2025-11-30T01:11:22.000Z"
"HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.",0,,"pranomostro","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:14:17.391Z","2011-11-17T01:11:22.000Z","2025-11-30T01:11:22.000Z"
"HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.",0,,"deleteyourbrain","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:27:43.112Z","2011-11-17T01:11:22.000Z","2025-11-30T01:11:22.000Z"
"HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.",0,,"NickN","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T04:38:16.577Z","2011-11-17T01:11:22.000Z","2025-11-30T01:11:22.000Z"
"HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.",0,,"gwern","Harbinger1","death rates are trending down, even for viruses. and *new* viruses? and current HIV cure is so drastic only one person has managed it",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T17:30:37.000Z","2011-11-17T01:11:22.000Z","2025-11-30T01:11:22.000Z"
"HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.",3,,"themusicgod1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T21:38:04.000Z","2011-11-17T01:11:22.000Z","2025-11-30T01:11:22.000Z"
"Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022",0,,"Flenser","OisinMoran",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-08T05:27:40.000Z","2017-10-19T00:35:14.000Z","2022-03-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022",0,,"NickN","OisinMoran",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T06:25:19.182Z","2017-10-19T00:35:14.000Z","2022-03-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022",2,,"OisinMoran","OisinMoran",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-19T00:35:14.000Z","2017-10-19T00:35:14.000Z","2022-03-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022",2,,"themusicgod1","OisinMoran",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-19T13:55:02.000Z","2017-10-19T00:35:14.000Z","2022-03-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022",0,,"JoshuaZ","OisinMoran","Interpreting this as exactly that date, which is a massive conjunction.  ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-19T14:59:25.000Z","2017-10-19T00:35:14.000Z","2022-03-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022",0,,"Medea","OisinMoran",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-10T15:25:01.000Z","2017-10-19T00:35:14.000Z","2022-03-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022",0,,"Bruno Parga","OisinMoran","This estimate disregards the possibility of someone pulling an xkcd/630.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-08T21:30:23.000Z","2017-10-19T00:35:14.000Z","2022-03-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022",0,,"Tenobrus","OisinMoran","Also interpreting as ""specifically on""",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-09T03:06:40.000Z","2017-10-19T00:35:14.000Z","2022-03-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022",0,,"Baeboo","OisinMoran",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-09T04:28:39.000Z","2017-10-19T00:35:14.000Z","2022-03-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022",1,,"chemotaxis101","OisinMoran",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-27T10:14:38.000Z","2017-10-19T00:35:14.000Z","2022-03-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. 

By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.",90,,"faws","bogdanb",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-22T17:57:12.000Z","2009-10-14T09:56:39.000Z","2029-10-14T12:00:00.000Z"
"Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. 

By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.",95,,"gwern","bogdanb",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-17T16:53:21.000Z","2009-10-14T09:56:39.000Z","2029-10-14T12:00:00.000Z"
"Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. 

By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.",96,,"pranomostro","bogdanb",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T23:09:24.000Z","2009-10-14T09:56:39.000Z","2029-10-14T12:00:00.000Z"
"Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. 

By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.",95,,"TheScholar","bogdanb",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-18T04:59:17.000Z","2009-10-14T09:56:39.000Z","2029-10-14T12:00:00.000Z"
"Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. 

By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.",85,,"freyley","bogdanb",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-22T22:17:38.000Z","2009-10-14T09:56:39.000Z","2029-10-14T12:00:00.000Z"
"Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. 

By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.",20,,"Baeboo","bogdanb",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T00:48:20.456Z","2009-10-14T09:56:39.000Z","2029-10-14T12:00:00.000Z"
"Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. 

By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.",100,,"deleteyourbrain","bogdanb",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:08:54.631Z","2009-10-14T09:56:39.000Z","2029-10-14T12:00:00.000Z"
"Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. 

By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.",80,,"ChristianKl","bogdanb",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-15T10:20:47.000Z","2009-10-14T09:56:39.000Z","2029-10-14T12:00:00.000Z"
"Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. 

By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.",30,,"Arenamontanus","bogdanb",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-14T21:44:48.000Z","2009-10-14T09:56:39.000Z","2029-10-14T12:00:00.000Z"
"Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. 

By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.",80,,"bogdanb","bogdanb",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-14T09:56:39.000Z","2009-10-14T09:56:39.000Z","2029-10-14T12:00:00.000Z"
"More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.",2,,"NickN","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-22T10:45:34.201Z","2016-04-26T14:00:37.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.",10,,"RoryS","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-06T22:46:09.000Z","2016-04-26T14:00:37.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.",10,,"jesselevine","Paul.David.Carr","You can edit the text of the prediction",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-01T04:51:39.000Z","2016-04-26T14:00:37.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.",12,,"JoshuaZ","Paul.David.Carr","Way too fast a transition. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-28T12:58:37.000Z","2016-04-26T14:00:37.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.",2,,"sflicht","Paul.David.Carr","I'm assuming this refers to the United States.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-28T03:52:42.000Z","2016-04-26T14:00:37.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.",20,,"PlacidPlatypus","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-26T16:43:45.000Z","2016-04-26T14:00:37.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.",10,,"splorridge","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-26T16:08:38.000Z","2016-04-26T14:00:37.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.",11,,"JoshuaZ","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T19:00:06.900Z","2016-04-26T14:00:37.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.",80,,"Paul.David.Carr","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-26T14:00:37.000Z","2016-04-26T14:00:37.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.",41,,"themusicgod1","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-26T17:09:48.000Z","2016-04-26T14:00:37.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.",5,,"jesselevine","Paul.David.Carr","Sflicht, I would have guessed much higher for the United States. Maybe around 10 percent? Not specified so assuming global",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-28T17:27:27.000Z","2016-04-26T14:00:37.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.",80,,"Paul.David.Carr","Paul.David.Carr","Sorry, should have specified US. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-29T17:42:19.000Z","2016-04-26T14:00:37.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.",60,,"sam_jaques","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-12T15:29:03.000Z","2016-04-26T14:00:37.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01",66,,"bobpage","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T11:47:28.000Z","2015-06-11T14:19:19.000Z","2025-07-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01",55,,"themusicgod1","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T23:26:07.000Z","2015-06-11T14:19:19.000Z","2025-07-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01",80,,"InquilineKea","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T20:11:24.000Z","2015-06-11T14:19:19.000Z","2025-07-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01",85,,"aarongertler","btrettel","If the Archive shows signs of ceasing operation, I think there's a good chance they'll get a successful fundraising campaign going. Most of my non-operation probability = someone creating a better version and importing IA.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-21T01:46:09.000Z","2015-06-11T14:19:19.000Z","2025-07-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01",85,,"jasticE","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-18T09:37:04.000Z","2015-06-11T14:19:19.000Z","2025-07-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01",85,,"David","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-13T06:33:12.000Z","2015-06-11T14:19:19.000Z","2025-07-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01",85,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-11T19:42:38.000Z","2015-06-11T14:19:19.000Z","2025-07-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01",80,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-11T14:19:19.000Z","2015-06-11T14:19:19.000Z","2025-07-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01",80,,"PseudonymousUser","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-13T04:20:29.000Z","2015-06-11T14:19:19.000Z","2025-07-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01",88,,"finback","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-03T01:39:57.964Z","2015-06-11T14:19:19.000Z","2025-07-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”",5,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T09:58:29.000Z","2010-07-31T09:27:45.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”",1,,"Sniffnoy","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T10:04:02.000Z","2010-07-31T09:27:45.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”",5,,"JoshuaZ","gwern","Noting that this still rounds to 5% but with probability moved downward slightly. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-21T20:56:28.000Z","2010-07-31T09:27:45.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”",34,,"themusicgod1","gwern","Judging this is going to be a bitch, but it's coming from a variety of angles, and 2030 is about the right time frame. But it will likely lead to world war and I don't think that's likely. Hrm.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-13T15:26:13.000Z","2010-07-31T09:27:45.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”",12,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:44:59.266Z","2010-07-31T09:27:45.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-31T09:27:45.000Z","2010-07-31T09:27:45.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”",8,,"Malgidus","gwern","Unless the Internet ""wakes up""",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-27T22:22:17.000Z","2010-07-31T09:27:45.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”",5,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-28T02:12:35.000Z","2010-07-31T09:27:45.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”",15,,"RandomThinker","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-28T02:55:50.000Z","2010-07-31T09:27:45.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”",5,,"simplicio","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-28T20:48:01.000Z","2010-07-31T09:27:45.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”",39,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-13T15:27:02.000Z","2010-07-31T09:27:45.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”",5,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:41:21.640Z","2010-07-31T09:27:45.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”",5,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-15T02:49:41.500Z","2010-07-31T09:27:45.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“China will break apart by 2030”",40,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-02T06:15:39.000Z","2010-08-02T06:15:38.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“China will break apart by 2030”",15,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-28T02:12:46.000Z","2010-08-02T06:15:38.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“China will break apart by 2030”",30,,"simplicio","gwern","Maldigus: it doesn't have to totally fall apart to count. If Tibet leaves, this prediction will be true.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-28T20:50:04.000Z","2010-08-02T06:15:38.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“China will break apart by 2030”",50,,"seifip","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-14T09:55:52.000Z","2010-08-02T06:15:38.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“China will break apart by 2030”",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:12:57.000Z","2010-08-02T06:15:38.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“China will break apart by 2030”",10,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T15:26:10.474Z","2010-08-02T06:15:38.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“China will break apart by 2030”",20,,"Malgidus","gwern","It could happen, but a multi-thousand year nation falling apart, hmm.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-27T22:24:08.000Z","2010-08-02T06:15:38.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“China will break apart by 2030”",11,,"RandomThinker","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-28T02:53:05.000Z","2010-08-02T06:15:38.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“China will break apart by 2030”",10,,"Raahul_Kumar","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-19T08:04:15.000Z","2010-08-02T06:15:38.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“China will break apart by 2030”",10,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T14:15:58.283Z","2010-08-02T06:15:38.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ",45,,"davatk","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-01T23:01:00.000Z","2016-06-27T20:02:58.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ",70,,"Dapple","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-13T22:53:26.000Z","2016-06-27T20:02:58.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ",45,,"Jenson","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-06T05:52:57.000Z","2016-06-27T20:02:58.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ",56,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-02T13:55:29.000Z","2016-06-27T20:02:58.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ",20,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-27T20:02:58.000Z","2016-06-27T20:02:58.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ",40,,"Medea","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-09T12:51:54.812Z","2016-06-27T20:02:58.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ",55,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-02T00:28:46.000Z","2016-06-27T20:02:58.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ",60,,"lettergram","NathanMcKnight","By 2019 according to the SNP vs the UK Government (who after leaving the EU might not want it)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-27T18:27:39.000Z","2016-06-27T20:02:58.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ",95,,"Raahul_Kumar","NathanMcKnight","By 2019 according to the SNP.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-06T02:24:20.000Z","2016-06-27T20:02:58.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ",70,,"elephantower","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-02T21:42:11.000Z","2016-06-27T20:02:58.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:27:32.000Z","2011-12-24T22:48:18.000Z","2021-12-24T22:48:18.000Z"
"In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).",20,,"chemotaxis101","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-25T22:01:12.000Z","2011-12-24T22:48:18.000Z","2021-12-24T22:48:18.000Z"
"In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).",15,,"RobertLumley","gwern","10 years is a long time. Initially had this at 20%.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-25T07:55:39.000Z","2011-12-24T22:48:18.000Z","2021-12-24T22:48:18.000Z"
"In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).",12,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-25T01:33:22.000Z","2011-12-24T22:48:18.000Z","2021-12-24T22:48:18.000Z"
"In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).",20,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:37:03.089Z","2011-12-24T22:48:18.000Z","2021-12-24T22:48:18.000Z"
"In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).",12,,"Grognor","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-27T23:30:46.000Z","2011-12-24T22:48:18.000Z","2021-12-24T22:48:18.000Z"
"In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).",33,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-27T07:12:43.000Z","2011-12-24T22:48:18.000Z","2021-12-24T22:48:18.000Z"
"In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).",5,,"fergus","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-26T00:59:32.000Z","2011-12-24T22:48:18.000Z","2021-12-24T22:48:18.000Z"
"In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).",30,,"papermachine","gwern","Pretty obvious problems. Surely can do better.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-25T15:34:18.000Z","2011-12-24T22:48:18.000Z","2021-12-24T22:48:18.000Z"
"In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-24T22:48:18.000Z","2011-12-24T22:48:18.000Z","2021-12-24T22:48:18.000Z"
"homosexuality criminalized in the US",13,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-09T05:40:35.000Z","2016-11-09T05:40:35.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"homosexuality criminalized in the US",1,,"penten","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-09T09:06:32.000Z","2016-11-09T05:40:35.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"homosexuality criminalized in the US",1,,"two2thehead","themusicgod1","Less than one percent",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-09T09:16:14.000Z","2016-11-09T05:40:35.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"homosexuality criminalized in the US",1,,"Michael Dickens","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-10T15:22:15.000Z","2016-11-09T05:40:35.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"homosexuality criminalized in the US",1,,"EloiseRosen","themusicgod1","a fraction of a percent",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-11T19:04:58.000Z","2016-11-09T05:40:35.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"homosexuality criminalized in the US",1,,"hedges","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-16T09:28:53.000Z","2016-11-09T05:40:35.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"homosexuality criminalized in the US",2,,"bobpage","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-16T11:30:23.000Z","2016-11-09T05:40:35.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"homosexuality criminalized in the US",5,,"pkfalu92","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-19T18:16:49.000Z","2016-11-09T05:40:35.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"homosexuality criminalized in the US",0,,"Cato","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-06T05:31:24.433Z","2016-11-09T05:40:35.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"homosexuality criminalized in the US",0,,"Baeboo","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-20T01:53:35.230Z","2016-11-09T05:40:35.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000",55,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-07T03:33:47.000Z","2013-02-07T03:33:47.000Z","2064-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000",50,,"ChristianKl","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-18T21:51:57.000Z","2013-02-07T03:33:47.000Z","2064-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000",65,,"drethelin","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-23T07:33:48.000Z","2013-02-07T03:33:47.000Z","2064-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000",80,,"sweeneyrod","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-03T21:28:10.000Z","2013-02-07T03:33:47.000Z","2064-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000",54,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T14:59:27.000Z","2013-02-07T03:33:47.000Z","2064-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000",70,,"Tuxedage","JoshuaZ","Hmm. This is essentially a prediction on how likely artificial meat is. If artificial meat is to be created, I think we can assign a decent probability to meat being outlawed.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-07T03:47:34.000Z","2013-02-07T03:33:47.000Z","2064-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000",45,,"simplicio","JoshuaZ","Great idea for a long bet!",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-09T02:52:36.000Z","2013-02-07T03:33:47.000Z","2064-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000",60,,"Houshalter","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-15T22:04:21.000Z","2013-02-07T03:33:47.000Z","2064-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000",60,,"procran","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-18T12:13:55.000Z","2013-02-07T03:33:47.000Z","2064-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000",50,,"ChristianKl","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-18T21:51:57.000Z","2013-02-07T03:33:47.000Z","2064-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000",75,,"PaulS","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-25T00:47:19.000Z","2013-02-07T03:33:47.000Z","2064-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070",5,,"gimpf","bobpage","Talk is _so_ easy.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-05T20:05:37.000Z","2011-12-04T05:00:39.000Z","2070-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070",47,,"themusicgod1","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:09:02.000Z","2011-12-04T05:00:39.000Z","2070-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070",20,,"RobertLumley","bobpage","What Jayson said.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-07T18:00:11.000Z","2011-12-04T05:00:39.000Z","2070-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070",25,,"Grognor","bobpage","thinking I was overconfident before AT LEAST somewhat.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-06T22:31:29.000Z","2011-12-04T05:00:39.000Z","2070-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070",40,,"Jayson Virissimo","bobpage","My ""gut"" says he is the kind of person to do it, but the base rate is just too low.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-06T09:12:15.000Z","2011-12-04T05:00:39.000Z","2070-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070",20,,"Laurent Bossavit","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-05T07:20:58.000Z","2011-12-04T05:00:39.000Z","2070-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070",35,,"Grognor","bobpage","really hard to give a number for this. I don't know shit about him. never watched his show.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-04T05:08:22.000Z","2011-12-04T05:00:39.000Z","2070-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070",15,,"chemotaxis101","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-05T18:17:40.000Z","2011-12-04T05:00:39.000Z","2070-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070",12,,"JoshuaZ","bobpage","Very few people actually go through with it. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-04T08:05:52.000Z","2011-12-04T05:00:39.000Z","2070-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070",12,,"JoshuaZ","bobpage","Very few people actually go through with it. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-04T08:05:52.000Z","2011-12-04T05:00:39.000Z","2070-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070",15,,"gwern","bobpage","may be a little low here but lots of people talk about it, and reading the CNN link, no evidence he actually signed up",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-04T06:08:17.000Z","2011-12-04T05:00:39.000Z","2070-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070",19,,"bobpage","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-04T05:00:39.000Z","2011-12-04T05:00:39.000Z","2070-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King",70,,"chemotaxis101","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-09T12:55:42.000Z","2011-10-07T21:07:15.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King",5,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern","Universities have survived since the Middle Ages; they aren't going anywhere.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-12T04:57:39.000Z","2011-10-07T21:07:15.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King",1,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-12T12:34:13.000Z","2011-10-07T21:07:15.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King",2,,"JoshuaZ","gwern","tags: [education][economics]",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-12T13:20:42.000Z","2011-10-07T21:07:15.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King",3,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T22:27:46.000Z","2011-10-07T21:07:15.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King",3,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T18:56:01.877Z","2011-10-07T21:07:15.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T21:07:15.000Z","2011-10-07T21:07:15.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King",25,,"mat33","gwern","The virtual education triumf would probably come later.  And even then, institutions like Oxford, Cambrige, Sorbonne may hang to tradition for ages.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-08T16:13:02.000Z","2011-10-07T21:07:15.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King",10,,"Robert Kosten","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-09T10:57:25.000Z","2011-10-07T21:07:15.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King",9,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T04:21:25.000Z","2011-10-07T21:07:15.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King",2,,"pranomostro","gwern","Unclear resolution criteria.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:26:16.081Z","2011-10-07T21:07:15.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King",4,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T14:18:25.410Z","2011-10-07T21:07:15.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King",5,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T18:26:32.394Z","2011-10-07T21:07:15.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.",80,,"Alexander Kruel","Alexander Kruel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-17T14:52:29.000Z","2011-08-17T14:52:29.000Z","2030-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.",30,,"JoshuaZ","Alexander Kruel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-17T15:28:35.000Z","2011-08-17T14:52:29.000Z","2030-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.",40,,"gwern","Alexander Kruel","2030 is a long time away though",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-17T16:02:13.000Z","2011-08-17T14:52:29.000Z","2030-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.",15,,"bobpage","Alexander Kruel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-17T19:59:54.000Z","2011-08-17T14:52:29.000Z","2030-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.",10,,"Jach","Alexander Kruel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-18T00:17:36.000Z","2011-08-17T14:52:29.000Z","2030-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.",35,,"roxton","Alexander Kruel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-19T22:34:17.000Z","2011-08-17T14:52:29.000Z","2030-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.",5,,"Tuxedage","Alexander Kruel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-03T19:35:59.000Z","2011-08-17T14:52:29.000Z","2030-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.",35,,"pranomostro","Alexander Kruel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-03T21:51:34.189Z","2011-08-17T14:52:29.000Z","2030-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.",12,,"Grognor","Alexander Kruel","""give up"" is too strong. pretty sure they'd at least keep it as a backup plan",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-06T21:09:32.000Z","2011-08-17T14:52:29.000Z","2030-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.",47,,"themusicgod1","Alexander Kruel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T01:53:56.000Z","2011-08-17T14:52:29.000Z","2030-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025",10,,"gwern","JoshuaZ","'chemically similar' is the key phrase here...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-17T15:22:58.000Z","2011-10-17T03:10:43.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025",40,,"Isaac","JoshuaZ","If we're talking FDA approval, then no way. Also, define ""anti-aging""?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-17T20:14:35.000Z","2011-10-17T03:10:43.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025",50,,"Arenamontanus","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-18T12:24:49.000Z","2011-10-17T03:10:43.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025",20,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T21:11:48.457Z","2011-10-17T03:10:43.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025",58,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-17T03:10:43.000Z","2011-10-17T03:10:43.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025",50,,"Jayson Virissimo","JoshuaZ","What is an ""accepted"" anti-aging treatment? Arguably, some already ""accept"" it as such.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-17T16:36:16.000Z","2011-10-17T03:10:43.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025",50,,"Arets Paeglis","JoshuaZ","If not for the ""chemically similar"" part, I'd assign a higher P.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-25T09:56:58.000Z","2011-10-17T03:10:43.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025",20,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Updating. Have looked more at recent literature and doesn't look very promising. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-01T02:53:02.000Z","2011-10-17T03:10:43.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025",5,,"Anubhav","JoshuaZ","Yay vagueness! </sarc> This reliance on vague concepts will probably get us into some sort of trouble at some unspecified point in the future... ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-02T07:32:18.000Z","2011-10-17T03:10:43.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025",10,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T21:11:53.483Z","2011-10-17T03:10:43.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025",15,,"Baeboo","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-21T21:03:40.959Z","2011-10-17T03:10:43.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025",0,,"tamaybesiroglu","JoshuaZ","Accepted by whom?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-22T12:15:10.075Z","2011-10-17T03:10:43.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025",50,,"tamaybesiroglu","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-22T12:15:34.053Z","2011-10-17T03:10:43.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars",4,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-03T19:58:04.338Z","2020-01-03T19:58:04.334Z","2030-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars",5,,"qznc","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-03T22:00:35.636Z","2020-01-03T19:58:04.334Z","2030-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars",2,,"optimaton","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-04T09:33:53.960Z","2020-01-03T19:58:04.334Z","2030-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars",2,,"sortega","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-11T10:34:16.803Z","2020-01-03T19:58:04.334Z","2030-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars",10,,"sty.silver","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-08T12:16:27.969Z","2020-01-03T19:58:04.334Z","2030-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars",5,,"Medea","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-09T12:49:00.656Z","2020-01-03T19:58:04.334Z","2030-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars",25,,"pranomostro","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-11T16:38:22.598Z","2020-01-03T19:58:04.334Z","2030-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars",60,,"avi","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-22T22:49:43.802Z","2020-01-03T19:58:04.334Z","2030-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars",0,,"NickN","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T06:32:10.610Z","2020-01-03T19:58:04.334Z","2030-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars",60,,"Reactionaryhistorian","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-29T00:47:26.290Z","2020-01-03T19:58:04.334Z","2030-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug",5,,"gwern","Konkvistador","does read like a rhetorical time-scale",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-24T15:11:19.000Z","2011-10-24T10:19:15.000Z","2039-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug",2,,"JoshuaZ","Konkvistador",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-24T15:37:38.000Z","2011-10-24T10:19:15.000Z","2039-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug",1,,"Jayson Virissimo","Konkvistador",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-24T15:56:26.000Z","2011-10-24T10:19:15.000Z","2039-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug",1,,"lavalamp","Konkvistador",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-10T16:44:29.000Z","2011-10-24T10:19:15.000Z","2039-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug",2,,"ChristianKl","Konkvistador",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-18T07:34:13.000Z","2011-10-24T10:19:15.000Z","2039-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug",1,,"rebellionkid","Konkvistador",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-18T13:25:26.000Z","2011-10-24T10:19:15.000Z","2039-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug",7,,"Konkvistador","Konkvistador","Voices saying closed borders is moral equivalent of segregation (Caplan) and those saying it would be a good way to end global poverty (Time: How to Make the World’s Poor $500 Billion...) have been getting more positive attention and influence. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-22T07:14:27.000Z","2011-10-24T10:19:15.000Z","2039-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","Konkvistador","Even 500 million is far too high, even by 2050.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-30T14:01:23.000Z","2011-10-24T10:19:15.000Z","2039-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug",3,,"themusicgod1","Konkvistador","Where are these people going to come from? 
Robert Kosten?  Anyone?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T05:18:25.000Z","2011-10-24T10:19:15.000Z","2039-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug",3,,"Konkvistador","Konkvistador",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-24T10:19:15.000Z","2011-10-24T10:19:15.000Z","2039-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug",99,,"Robert Kosten","Konkvistador","depending on the exact legalities in effect at the time",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-25T17:58:17.000Z","2011-10-24T10:19:15.000Z","2039-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug",1,,"Robert Kosten","Konkvistador",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-25T17:58:22.000Z","2011-10-24T10:19:15.000Z","2039-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug",5,,"Jayson Virissimo","Konkvistador",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-19T05:53:55.000Z","2011-10-24T10:19:15.000Z","2039-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug",1,,"JoshuaZ","Konkvistador",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-20T01:22:26.000Z","2011-10-24T10:19:15.000Z","2039-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",25,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T12:13:15.000Z","2015-07-28T04:59:38.000Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",2,,"supinf","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-31T00:38:32.000Z","2015-07-28T04:59:38.000Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",20,,"espore","InquilineKea","Could be possible",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-02T20:55:44.000Z","2015-07-28T04:59:38.000Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",70,,"Raahul_Kumar","InquilineKea","I count fossils as meeting this prediction. Even if the lifeforms are dead by the time we find them, it still counts.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-08T12:53:39.000Z","2015-07-28T04:59:38.000Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",10,,"sflicht","InquilineKea","I assume Raahul's interpretation is not the official standard?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-03T11:35:55.000Z","2015-07-28T04:59:38.000Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",11,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T04:59:38.000Z","2015-07-28T04:59:38.000Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",1,,"David","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T11:51:09.000Z","2015-07-28T04:59:38.000Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",10,,"Jayson Virissimo","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T22:48:17.000Z","2015-07-28T04:59:38.000Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",60,,"ArturoGoosnargh","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-29T11:28:57.000Z","2015-07-28T04:59:38.000Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",8,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-14T06:15:09.000Z","2015-07-28T04:59:38.000Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035",70,,"amcknight","amcknight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-11T01:49:46.000Z","2011-11-11T01:49:46.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035",20,,"JoshuaZ","amcknight","Wikipedia says number of planets has been for the last few Novembers:
2003: 58
2004: 123  (+ 112%)  

2005: 146. (+ 18%)  

2006: 209  (+ 42%)  

2007 268   (+ 28%)  

2008: 329  (+ 22%)  

2009: 405  (+ 23%)  

2010: 495  (+ 22%)  

2011:",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-11T05:04:25.000Z","2011-11-11T01:49:46.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035",40,,"gwern","amcknight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-11T16:05:55.000Z","2011-11-11T01:49:46.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035",31,,"JoshuaZ","amcknight","Probably overconfident based on Anubhav's remarks. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-11T17:56:01.000Z","2011-11-11T01:49:46.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035",60,,"NathanMcKnight","amcknight","Estimates are orders of magnitude higher & if JWST, or an equivalent launches, the discovery rate will jump dramatically. But does ""cataloged"" mean ""independently confirmed"" or will single-study planet candidates suffice?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-11T22:36:44.000Z","2011-11-11T01:49:46.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035",40,,"faws","amcknight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-18T13:26:15.000Z","2011-11-11T01:49:46.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035",28,,"JoshuaZ","amcknight","Reducing confidence as rate of confirmation seems to have slowed, and funding for long-term planet finding is drying up. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-04T00:52:45.000Z","2011-11-11T01:49:46.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035",47,,"themusicgod1","amcknight","up to 715 in 2016...exponential is still too slow, doubling time 8 years.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T05:26:11.000Z","2011-11-11T01:49:46.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035",27,,"JoshuaZ","amcknight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T22:27:04.000Z","2011-11-11T01:49:46.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035",20,,"Anubhav","amcknight","Excel says 32% a year assuming exponential.  That's about 5.6 lakh (=0.56 million) by 2035.  ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-11T07:22:14.000Z","2011-11-11T01:49:46.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035",90,,"moridinamael","amcknight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-11T18:06:11.000Z","2011-11-11T01:49:46.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035",26,,"TrE","amcknight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-16T22:16:12.000Z","2011-11-11T01:49:46.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035",35,,"pranomostro","amcknight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:48:26.186Z","2011-11-11T01:49:46.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.",25,,"RobertLumley","NathanMcKnight","Oh wait, ""a national office"", not ""President"".",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-11T21:51:10.000Z","2011-11-11T21:38:35.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.",70,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-11T21:38:35.000Z","2011-11-11T21:38:35.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.",5,,"RobertLumley","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-11T21:49:41.000Z","2011-11-11T21:38:35.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.",40,,"gwern","NathanMcKnight","eh, sure, why not. one fluke over a decade? not going to assign that very low probability",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-11T23:10:37.000Z","2011-11-11T21:38:35.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.",30,,"Gedusa","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-12T16:14:20.000Z","2011-11-11T21:38:35.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.",25,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-13T05:15:55.000Z","2011-11-11T21:38:35.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.",33,,"Jayson Virissimo","NathanMcKnight","Didn't Paul admit to being a ""philosophical anarchist"" like Jefferson at some point?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-13T06:15:51.000Z","2011-11-11T21:38:35.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.",70,,"Anubhav","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-13T06:32:50.000Z","2011-11-11T21:38:35.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.",47,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T21:08:32.000Z","2011-11-11T21:38:35.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.",50,,"pranomostro","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:46:54.061Z","2011-11-11T21:38:35.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.",10,,"amadeu","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-07T20:19:09.784Z","2011-11-11T21:38:35.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one government official (bureaucrat/politician/member of a royal family) assassinated by a flying robot before 2020.",50,,"themusicgod1","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T00:30:52.000Z","2012-03-06T08:40:29.000Z","2020-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"At least one government official (bureaucrat/politician/member of a royal family) assassinated by a flying robot before 2020.",50,,"drethelin","Anubhav","95 percent if America goes to war against another government instead of against terrorists. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-20T06:41:41.000Z","2012-03-06T08:40:29.000Z","2020-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"At least one government official (bureaucrat/politician/member of a royal family) assassinated by a flying robot before 2020.",20,,"Grognor","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-20T06:35:20.000Z","2012-03-06T08:40:29.000Z","2020-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"At least one government official (bureaucrat/politician/member of a royal family) assassinated by a flying robot before 2020.",45,,"Ben Doherty","Anubhav","Assuming that assassination needs to be deliberate, and not an accidental crash or malfunction leading to a fatality.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-07T22:02:28.000Z","2012-03-06T08:40:29.000Z","2020-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"At least one government official (bureaucrat/politician/member of a royal family) assassinated by a flying robot before 2020.",35,,"RandomThinker","Anubhav","Still think decent chance, but 2020 is only 8 years away, and the US is the only volume user of drones.  In the near term, this is most likely an accident from a drone killing a terrorist.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-06T08:52:46.000Z","2012-03-06T08:40:29.000Z","2020-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"At least one government official (bureaucrat/politician/member of a royal family) assassinated by a flying robot before 2020.",85,,"RandomThinker","Anubhav","Pretty good chance, although it may not become public.  ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-06T08:43:19.000Z","2012-03-06T08:40:29.000Z","2020-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"At least one government official (bureaucrat/politician/member of a royal family) assassinated by a flying robot before 2020.",30,,"spqr0a1","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-16T07:35:05.000Z","2012-03-06T08:40:29.000Z","2020-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"At least one government official (bureaucrat/politician/member of a royal family) assassinated by a flying robot before 2020.",85,,"Isaac","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-08T17:45:43.000Z","2012-03-06T08:40:29.000Z","2020-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"At least one government official (bureaucrat/politician/member of a royal family) assassinated by a flying robot before 2020.",95,,"Anubhav","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-06T08:40:29.000Z","2012-03-06T08:40:29.000Z","2020-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"At least one government official (bureaucrat/politician/member of a royal family) assassinated by a flying robot before 2020.",80,,"chemotaxis101","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-07-01T15:40:48.000Z","2012-03-06T08:40:29.000Z","2020-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be >60 years old at his inauguration.",32,,"Tuxedage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-12T15:06:00.000Z","2013-01-11T20:25:39.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be >60 years old at his inauguration.",25,,"Cy Fleming","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-15T07:59:26.000Z","2013-01-11T20:25:39.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be >60 years old at his inauguration.",100,,"Messias","gwern","Samuel Aaron Simmons will be elected President of the United States of America on November 2, 2032. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-01T03:27:06.000Z","2013-01-11T20:25:39.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be >60 years old at his inauguration.",46,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T14:48:27.000Z","2013-01-11T20:25:39.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be >60 years old at his inauguration.",35,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T02:55:22.770Z","2013-01-11T20:25:39.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be >60 years old at his inauguration.",30,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-11T20:25:39.000Z","2013-01-11T20:25:39.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be >60 years old at his inauguration.",25,,"RandomThinker","gwern","Twenty years from now is when the Gen Yers will want to take over the presidency.  Gen X is a tiny cohort.  It's going to be someone who's 30 or younger now, not someone who's 40+ now.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-12T03:51:35.000Z","2013-01-11T20:25:39.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be >60 years old at his inauguration.",31,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-27T16:06:52.000Z","2013-01-11T20:25:39.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be >60 years old at his inauguration.",40,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:19:10.776Z","2013-01-11T20:25:39.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"An off-planet Playboy club is operational before 2030.",1,,"pranomostro","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T00:17:17.768Z","2012-03-05T02:40:15.000Z","2030-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"An off-planet Playboy club is operational before 2030.",47,,"themusicgod1","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T00:29:52.000Z","2012-03-05T02:40:15.000Z","2030-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"An off-planet Playboy club is operational before 2030.",5,,"RandomThinker","Anubhav","More likely a Playboy club will be advertised as ""out of this world"" than actually being out of this world.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-06T08:14:25.000Z","2012-03-05T02:40:15.000Z","2030-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"An off-planet Playboy club is operational before 2030.",4,,"Anubhav","Anubhav","That... drastically brings down my estimate.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-06T02:30:15.000Z","2012-03-05T02:40:15.000Z","2030-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"An off-planet Playboy club is operational before 2030.",0,,"JoshuaZ","Anubhav","2",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-05T18:40:03.000Z","2012-03-05T02:40:15.000Z","2030-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"An off-planet Playboy club is operational before 2030.",1,,"saturn","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-26T17:07:21.000Z","2012-03-05T02:40:15.000Z","2030-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"An off-planet Playboy club is operational before 2030.",5,,"Serge","Anubhav","Very unlikely.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-06T17:35:55.000Z","2012-03-05T02:40:15.000Z","2030-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"An off-planet Playboy club is operational before 2030.",5,,"gwern","Anubhav","playboy can't even run its restaurant/club chain on land any more; in space? I'd love to see the reasoning behind a 20%...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-05T18:11:15.000Z","2012-03-05T02:40:15.000Z","2030-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"An off-planet Playboy club is operational before 2030.",15,,"Jayson Virissimo","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-05T07:26:14.000Z","2012-03-05T02:40:15.000Z","2030-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"An off-planet Playboy club is operational before 2030.",20,,"Anubhav","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-05T02:40:15.000Z","2012-03-05T02:40:15.000Z","2030-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"I will have taken over at least one country by 2035.",8,,"themusicgod1","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T00:24:04.000Z","2012-02-13T06:21:47.000Z","2035-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"I will have taken over at least one country by 2035.",0,,"Nic_Smith","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-18T03:05:37.000Z","2012-02-13T06:21:47.000Z","2035-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"I will have taken over at least one country by 2035.",0,,"Emanuel Rylke","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-16T07:48:09.000Z","2012-02-13T06:21:47.000Z","2035-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"I will have taken over at least one country by 2035.",0,,"RobertLumley","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-14T12:24:15.000Z","2012-02-13T06:21:47.000Z","2035-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"I will have taken over at least one country by 2035.",0,,"Anubhav","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-13T06:21:47.000Z","2012-02-13T06:21:47.000Z","2035-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"I will have taken over at least one country by 2035.",0,,"pranomostro","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T00:20:43.899Z","2012-02-13T06:21:47.000Z","2035-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"I will have taken over at least one country by 2035.",0,,"JoshuaZ","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-14T19:17:50.000Z","2012-02-13T06:21:47.000Z","2035-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"I will have taken over at least one country by 2035.",0,,"gwern","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-14T01:51:26.000Z","2012-02-13T06:21:47.000Z","2035-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"I will have taken over at least one country by 2035.",0,,"Jayson Virissimo","Anubhav","This will become more feasible once more micronations come online (remember Sealand?), but still very unlikely.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-13T12:36:46.000Z","2012-02-13T06:21:47.000Z","2035-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"“Moore's Law, which has defined a doubling of price/performance/value produced by semi-conductors every 12 to 18 months since 1966, will continue to deliver its exponential benefits for at least another five decades, without stopping or slowing.”",5,,"gwern","gwern","""It can't continue forever. The nature of exponentials is that you push them out and eventually disaster happens."" not that has ended already",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-31T06:02:34.000Z","2010-07-30T05:42:26.000Z","2052-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Moore's Law, which has defined a doubling of price/performance/value produced by semi-conductors every 12 to 18 months since 1966, will continue to deliver its exponential benefits for at least another five decades, without stopping or slowing.”",4,,"Grognor","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-06T19:50:16.000Z","2010-07-30T05:42:26.000Z","2052-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Moore's Law, which has defined a doubling of price/performance/value produced by semi-conductors every 12 to 18 months since 1966, will continue to deliver its exponential benefits for at least another five decades, without stopping or slowing.”",10,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:24:22.453Z","2010-07-30T05:42:26.000Z","2052-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Moore's Law, which has defined a doubling of price/performance/value produced by semi-conductors every 12 to 18 months since 1966, will continue to deliver its exponential benefits for at least another five decades, without stopping or slowing.”",25,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T05:42:26.000Z","2010-07-30T05:42:26.000Z","2052-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Moore's Law, which has defined a doubling of price/performance/value produced by semi-conductors every 12 to 18 months since 1966, will continue to deliver its exponential benefits for at least another five decades, without stopping or slowing.”",1,,"dakyne","gwern","Moore's Law has already terminated, if you use processor speed as a metric.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T09:43:55.000Z","2010-07-30T05:42:26.000Z","2052-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Moore's Law, which has defined a doubling of price/performance/value produced by semi-conductors every 12 to 18 months since 1966, will continue to deliver its exponential benefits for at least another five decades, without stopping or slowing.”",5,,"Traubert","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-11T13:30:57.000Z","2010-07-30T05:42:26.000Z","2052-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Moore's Law, which has defined a doubling of price/performance/value produced by semi-conductors every 12 to 18 months since 1966, will continue to deliver its exponential benefits for at least another five decades, without stopping or slowing.”",25,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-02T14:50:59.000Z","2010-07-30T05:42:26.000Z","2052-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Moore's Law, which has defined a doubling of price/performance/value produced by semi-conductors every 12 to 18 months since 1966, will continue to deliver its exponential benefits for at least another five decades, without stopping or slowing.”",25,,"btrettel","gwern","My estimate is for number of transistors (or their equivalent) in a processor.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-26T21:35:04.000Z","2010-07-30T05:42:26.000Z","2052-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Moore's Law, which has defined a doubling of price/performance/value produced by semi-conductors every 12 to 18 months since 1966, will continue to deliver its exponential benefits for at least another five decades, without stopping or slowing.”",10,,"InquilineKea","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T20:13:07.000Z","2010-07-30T05:42:26.000Z","2052-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Moore's Law, which has defined a doubling of price/performance/value produced by semi-conductors every 12 to 18 months since 1966, will continue to deliver its exponential benefits for at least another five decades, without stopping or slowing.”",3,,"btrettel","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-03T22:50:20.000Z","2010-07-30T05:42:26.000Z","2052-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Moore's Law, which has defined a doubling of price/performance/value produced by semi-conductors every 12 to 18 months since 1966, will continue to deliver its exponential benefits for at least another five decades, without stopping or slowing.”",3,,"themusicgod1","gwern","Kurzweil's law however will continue to deliver.  DNA processing/quantum computing are really close to prime time.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-03T23:10:21.000Z","2010-07-30T05:42:26.000Z","2052-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In ten years, people will be able to regenerate lost or damaged teeth for under $5k/tooth (2011 USD, inflation-adjusted).",25,,"JoshuaZ","papermachine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T14:21:27.090Z","2011-09-20T06:45:14.000Z","2021-09-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"In ten years, people will be able to regenerate lost or damaged teeth for under $5k/tooth (2011 USD, inflation-adjusted).",48,,"themusicgod1","papermachine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-30T06:43:42.000Z","2011-09-20T06:45:14.000Z","2021-09-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"In ten years, people will be able to regenerate lost or damaged teeth for under $5k/tooth (2011 USD, inflation-adjusted).",30,,"gwern","papermachine","yeah, I can see that... on the other hand, all you have to do is plug it in?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-21T18:45:07.000Z","2011-09-20T06:45:14.000Z","2021-09-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"In ten years, people will be able to regenerate lost or damaged teeth for under $5k/tooth (2011 USD, inflation-adjusted).",15,,"roxton","papermachine","http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_intensity_pulsed_ultrasound - But anything that requires multiple weeks of daily treatment isn't going to cost under $5k.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-21T10:26:00.000Z","2011-09-20T06:45:14.000Z","2021-09-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"In ten years, people will be able to regenerate lost or damaged teeth for under $5k/tooth (2011 USD, inflation-adjusted).",55,,"JoshuaZ","papermachine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-20T12:16:56.000Z","2011-09-20T06:45:14.000Z","2021-09-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"In ten years, people will be able to regenerate lost or damaged teeth for under $5k/tooth (2011 USD, inflation-adjusted).",10,,"pranomostro","papermachine","Too early.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:32:34.400Z","2011-09-20T06:45:14.000Z","2021-09-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"In ten years, people will be able to regenerate lost or damaged teeth for under $5k/tooth (2011 USD, inflation-adjusted).",40,,"gwern","papermachine","quite some polarization here. am I missing some ongoging clinical trial about tooth regeneration?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-20T14:16:25.000Z","2011-09-20T06:45:14.000Z","2021-09-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"In ten years, people will be able to regenerate lost or damaged teeth for under $5k/tooth (2011 USD, inflation-adjusted).",10,,"Emanuel Rylke","papermachine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-20T12:02:40.000Z","2011-09-20T06:45:14.000Z","2021-09-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"In ten years, people will be able to regenerate lost or damaged teeth for under $5k/tooth (2011 USD, inflation-adjusted).",70,,"bobpage","papermachine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-20T12:02:39.000Z","2011-09-20T06:45:14.000Z","2021-09-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"In ten years, people will be able to regenerate lost or damaged teeth for under $5k/tooth (2011 USD, inflation-adjusted).",90,,"fergus","papermachine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-20T09:29:17.000Z","2011-09-20T06:45:14.000Z","2021-09-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"In ten years, people will be able to regenerate lost or damaged teeth for under $5k/tooth (2011 USD, inflation-adjusted).",70,,"papermachine","papermachine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-20T06:45:17.000Z","2011-09-20T06:45:14.000Z","2021-09-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, China's yuan will be backed by gold. ",0,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","danpop",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-17T06:10:56.000Z","2016-03-11T11:21:40.000Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, China's yuan will be backed by gold. ",1,,"Temeraire","danpop","Chinese money supply is ~142,000 bn CHY. That's USD 21,780bn. Gold is 1250/ounce, so they'd need almost 500,000 metric tonnes of gold. That is more gold than exists in the world.
",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-16T02:21:35.000Z","2016-03-11T11:21:40.000Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, China's yuan will be backed by gold. ",2,,"Raahul_Kumar","danpop","Improbable. They may release a Gold Dinar style coin, or something like that, but Chairman Mao's lovely face is staying on ¥ thank you very much!",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-12T23:57:30.000Z","2016-03-11T11:21:40.000Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, China's yuan will be backed by gold. ",1,,"Waring","danpop",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-12T15:03:11.000Z","2016-03-11T11:21:40.000Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, China's yuan will be backed by gold. ",10,,"themusicgod1","danpop",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-11T16:50:00.000Z","2016-03-11T11:21:40.000Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, China's yuan will be backed by gold. ",75,,"danpop","danpop",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-11T11:21:40.000Z","2016-03-11T11:21:40.000Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, China's yuan will be backed by gold. ",1,,"NickN","danpop",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-19T22:56:44.733Z","2016-03-11T11:21:40.000Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, China's yuan will be backed by gold. ",3,,"JoshuaZ","danpop",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-16T10:41:08.000Z","2016-03-11T11:21:40.000Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, China's yuan will be backed by gold. ",3,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","danpop","Lol, no way. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-12T03:06:33.000Z","2016-03-11T11:21:40.000Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, China's yuan will be backed by gold. ",5,,"PlacidPlatypus","danpop",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-11T20:54:48.000Z","2016-03-11T11:21:40.000Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, there will be fewer than 3.5 million people employed in the US as truck drivers, as autonomous vehicles penetrate the market.",100,,"bendini","pkfalu92",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-31T15:33:56.000Z","2016-07-26T17:45:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, there will be fewer than 3.5 million people employed in the US as truck drivers, as autonomous vehicles penetrate the market.",85,,"Dapple","pkfalu92",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-27T19:59:27.000Z","2016-07-26T17:45:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, there will be fewer than 3.5 million people employed in the US as truck drivers, as autonomous vehicles penetrate the market.",90,,"pkfalu92","pkfalu92",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-06T15:04:22.000Z","2016-07-26T17:45:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, there will be fewer than 3.5 million people employed in the US as truck drivers, as autonomous vehicles penetrate the market.",92,,"Waring","pkfalu92",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-01T22:57:44.000Z","2016-07-26T17:45:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, there will be fewer than 3.5 million people employed in the US as truck drivers, as autonomous vehicles penetrate the market.",90,,"two2thehead","pkfalu92","Probably. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-19T10:46:41.000Z","2016-07-26T17:45:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, there will be fewer than 3.5 million people employed in the US as truck drivers, as autonomous vehicles penetrate the market.",70,,"Paul.David.Carr","pkfalu92",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-01T13:17:04.000Z","2016-07-26T17:45:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, there will be fewer than 3.5 million people employed in the US as truck drivers, as autonomous vehicles penetrate the market.",90,,"robirahman","pkfalu92",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-30T21:55:18.000Z","2016-07-26T17:45:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, there will be fewer than 3.5 million people employed in the US as truck drivers, as autonomous vehicles penetrate the market.",63,,"sole21000","pkfalu92",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-27T06:56:01.000Z","2016-07-26T17:45:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, there will be fewer than 3.5 million people employed in the US as truck drivers, as autonomous vehicles penetrate the market.",67,,"themusicgod1","pkfalu92",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-27T03:23:18.000Z","2016-07-26T17:45:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, there will be fewer than 3.5 million people employed in the US as truck drivers, as autonomous vehicles penetrate the market.",73,,"pkfalu92","pkfalu92",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-26T17:45:48.000Z","2016-07-26T17:45:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ted Nelson, inventor of hypertext:  Shinichi Mochizuki is the real Satoshi Nakamoto",1,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-21T16:47:39.000Z","2013-05-21T16:47:39.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ted Nelson, inventor of hypertext:  Shinichi Mochizuki is the real Satoshi Nakamoto",1,,"JoshuaZ","RandomThinker","This seems extremely unlikely. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-21T17:59:06.000Z","2013-05-21T16:47:39.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ted Nelson, inventor of hypertext:  Shinichi Mochizuki is the real Satoshi Nakamoto",1,,"Tuxedage","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-22T02:10:32.000Z","2013-05-21T16:47:39.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ted Nelson, inventor of hypertext:  Shinichi Mochizuki is the real Satoshi Nakamoto",2,,"gwern","RandomThinker","just consider the base rates here... how many brilliant Japanese men are there in a population of 128m?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-22T02:17:29.000Z","2013-05-21T16:47:39.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ted Nelson, inventor of hypertext:  Shinichi Mochizuki is the real Satoshi Nakamoto",0,,"gwern","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-09T01:21:25.000Z","2013-05-21T16:47:39.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ted Nelson, inventor of hypertext:  Shinichi Mochizuki is the real Satoshi Nakamoto",0,,"pranomostro","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T22:58:38.284Z","2013-05-21T16:47:39.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ted Nelson, inventor of hypertext:  Shinichi Mochizuki is the real Satoshi Nakamoto",0,,"Baeboo","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T03:11:23.227Z","2013-05-21T16:47:39.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ted Nelson, inventor of hypertext:  Shinichi Mochizuki is the real Satoshi Nakamoto",0,,"deleteyourbrain","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T03:00:51.715Z","2013-05-21T16:47:39.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ted Nelson, inventor of hypertext:  Shinichi Mochizuki is the real Satoshi Nakamoto",5,,"Jayson Virissimo","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-21T22:37:25.000Z","2013-05-21T16:47:39.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ted Nelson, inventor of hypertext:  Shinichi Mochizuki is the real Satoshi Nakamoto",8,,"themusicgod1","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T23:00:27.000Z","2013-05-21T16:47:39.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Life will be discovered on Titan by 2030.",15,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-20T06:38:39.000Z","2010-08-20T06:38:36.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Life will be discovered on Titan by 2030.",8,,"lavalamp","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-10T23:48:50.000Z","2010-08-20T06:38:36.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Life will be discovered on Titan by 2030.",1,,"Grognor","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-06T20:11:37.000Z","2010-08-20T06:38:36.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Life will be discovered on Titan by 2030.",4,,"JoshuaZ","gwern","Reducing due to no signs of likely missions any time soon. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T02:21:39.000Z","2010-08-20T06:38:36.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Life will be discovered on Titan by 2030.",0,,"chemotaxis101","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T20:18:02.151Z","2010-08-20T06:38:36.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Life will be discovered on Titan by 2030.",5,,"JoshuaZ","gwern","Requires that we both successfully get the mission to Titan in that time frame and that there's actually life there. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-24T17:56:58.000Z","2010-08-20T06:38:36.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Life will be discovered on Titan by 2030.",10,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-12T14:08:55.000Z","2010-08-20T06:38:36.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Life will be discovered on Titan by 2030.",3,,"muflax","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-11T00:55:02.000Z","2010-08-20T06:38:36.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Life will be discovered on Titan by 2030.",3,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T01:10:27.000Z","2010-08-20T06:38:36.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Life will be discovered on Titan by 2030.",2,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-10T21:07:41.996Z","2010-08-20T06:38:36.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Life will be discovered on Titan by 2030.",10,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-10T21:07:49.861Z","2010-08-20T06:38:36.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Lab-cultured red protein that emulates beef will become commonplace, and sold in typical grocery stores, ***by 2025***.",75,,"sungk2048","sungk2048",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-18T22:39:17.852Z","2020-01-18T22:39:17.848Z","2025-01-19T09:39:17.000Z"
"Lab-cultured red protein that emulates beef will become commonplace, and sold in typical grocery stores, ***by 2025***.",1,,"peter_hurford","sungk2048","Per my understanding, lab-cultured meat is really unlikely to be cost-competitive any time soon, let alone put up for widespread commercial adoption and get past FDA clearance for grocery store sales.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-19T04:19:33.742Z","2020-01-18T22:39:17.848Z","2025-01-19T09:39:17.000Z"
"Lab-cultured red protein that emulates beef will become commonplace, and sold in typical grocery stores, ***by 2025***.",20,,"pranomostro","sungk2048",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-21T17:19:03.633Z","2020-01-18T22:39:17.848Z","2025-01-19T09:39:17.000Z"
"Lab-cultured red protein that emulates beef will become commonplace, and sold in typical grocery stores, ***by 2025***.",10,,"Bruno Parga","sungk2048",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-24T16:10:38.615Z","2020-01-18T22:39:17.848Z","2025-01-19T09:39:17.000Z"
"Lab-cultured red protein that emulates beef will become commonplace, and sold in typical grocery stores, ***by 2025***.",40,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","sungk2048",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-08T08:54:44.958Z","2020-01-18T22:39:17.848Z","2025-01-19T09:39:17.000Z"
"Lab-cultured red protein that emulates beef will become commonplace, and sold in typical grocery stores, ***by 2025***.",10,,"product","sungk2048","The science isn't there yet to mass produce, plus meat industry pushback will try to prevent development . Could see this happening by 2035 though.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-01T11:54:26.628Z","2020-01-18T22:39:17.848Z","2025-01-19T09:39:17.000Z"
"Lab-cultured red protein that emulates beef will become commonplace, and sold in typical grocery stores, ***by 2025***.",24,,"JoshuaZ","sungk2048","Given how successful purely plant based substitutes (e.g. Beyond, Impossible), this seems like it would have trouble competing commercially. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-01T12:28:36.608Z","2020-01-18T22:39:17.848Z","2025-01-19T09:39:17.000Z"
"Lab-cultured red protein that emulates beef will become commonplace, and sold in typical grocery stores, ***by 2025***.",5,,"sjy","sungk2048",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-07T00:05:33.392Z","2020-01-18T22:39:17.848Z","2025-01-19T09:39:17.000Z"
"Lab-cultured red protein that emulates beef will become commonplace, and sold in typical grocery stores, ***by 2025***.",40,,"avi","sungk2048",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-22T22:47:50.118Z","2020-01-18T22:39:17.848Z","2025-01-19T09:39:17.000Z"
"Lab-cultured red protein that emulates beef will become commonplace, and sold in typical grocery stores, ***by 2025***.",70,,"avi","sungk2048",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-31T20:42:27.265Z","2020-01-18T22:39:17.848Z","2025-01-19T09:39:17.000Z"
"A manned flyby of Venus will happen in the next 20 years",10,,"Oscar_Cunningham","anotherfate",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-29T16:18:37.000Z","2013-07-25T18:25:33.000Z","2033-07-25T14:30:00.000Z"
"A manned flyby of Venus will happen in the next 20 years",5,,"Jayson Virissimo","anotherfate",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-04T00:32:05.000Z","2013-07-25T18:25:33.000Z","2033-07-25T14:30:00.000Z"
"A manned flyby of Venus will happen in the next 20 years",1,,"JoshuaZ","anotherfate",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-05T13:54:55.000Z","2013-07-25T18:25:33.000Z","2033-07-25T14:30:00.000Z"
"A manned flyby of Venus will happen in the next 20 years",3,,"Jach","anotherfate",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-17T10:14:15.000Z","2013-07-25T18:25:33.000Z","2033-07-25T14:30:00.000Z"
"A manned flyby of Venus will happen in the next 20 years",2,,"Nithi","anotherfate",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-23T02:22:03.000Z","2013-07-25T18:25:33.000Z","2033-07-25T14:30:00.000Z"
"A manned flyby of Venus will happen in the next 20 years",20,,"anotherfate","anotherfate",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-25T18:25:33.000Z","2013-07-25T18:25:33.000Z","2033-07-25T14:30:00.000Z"
"A manned flyby of Venus will happen in the next 20 years",1,,"ericlefevre","anotherfate",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-26T07:04:24.000Z","2013-07-25T18:25:33.000Z","2033-07-25T14:30:00.000Z"
"A manned flyby of Venus will happen in the next 20 years",3,,"mfb","anotherfate","Mars is way more interesting for manned missions.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-03T22:29:53.000Z","2013-07-25T18:25:33.000Z","2033-07-25T14:30:00.000Z"
"A manned flyby of Venus will happen in the next 20 years",1,,"Oscar_Cunningham","anotherfate","What was I thinking!? Why would we want to send _people_ anywhere near _venus_ of all places?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-03T23:26:21.000Z","2013-07-25T18:25:33.000Z","2033-07-25T14:30:00.000Z"
"A manned flyby of Venus will happen in the next 20 years",15,,"RandomThinker","anotherfate","China might do it.  20 yrs is a long time",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-05T07:20:56.000Z","2013-07-25T18:25:33.000Z","2033-07-25T14:30:00.000Z"
"Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2030.",3,,"adbge","Malcolm Ocean",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-12T22:28:31.000Z","2013-08-12T21:19:17.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2030.",15,,"JoshuaZ","Malcolm Ocean",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-13T01:25:17.000Z","2013-08-12T21:19:17.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2030.",5,,"High_Fiber_Twigs","Malcolm Ocean",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-13T06:25:41.000Z","2013-08-12T21:19:17.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2030.",1,,"Theaetetus","Malcolm Ocean",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-13T17:56:12.000Z","2013-08-12T21:19:17.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2030.",10,,"qznc","Malcolm Ocean",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-12T12:35:26.000Z","2013-08-12T21:19:17.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2030.",60,,"Paul.David.Carr","Malcolm Ocean",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-01T18:55:16.703Z","2013-08-12T21:19:17.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2030.",18,,"Malcolm Ocean","Malcolm Ocean",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-12T21:19:17.000Z","2013-08-12T21:19:17.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2030.",2,,"procran","Malcolm Ocean",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-20T23:01:14.000Z","2013-08-12T21:19:17.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2030.",62,,"themusicgod1","Malcolm Ocean",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-05T10:50:17.000Z","2013-08-12T21:19:17.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Independent of the next elected president of the United States, there will not exist a wall along the 1,954 mile border shared with Mexico within 8 years of inauguration. ",98,,"timujin","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-13T09:30:52.000Z","2016-02-13T02:58:14.000Z","2025-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Independent of the next elected president of the United States, there will not exist a wall along the 1,954 mile border shared with Mexico within 8 years of inauguration. ",99,,"bobpage","jesselevine","http://www.nationalmemo.com/an-engineer-explains-why-trumps-wall-is-so-implausible/ http://www.nationalmemo.com/trump-wises-up-abandons-his-improbably-large-wall/",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-13T13:14:07.000Z","2016-02-13T02:58:14.000Z","2025-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Independent of the next elected president of the United States, there will not exist a wall along the 1,954 mile border shared with Mexico within 8 years of inauguration. ",99,,"Raahul_Kumar","jesselevine","Confusingly worded!",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-13T14:08:10.000Z","2016-02-13T02:58:14.000Z","2025-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Independent of the next elected president of the United States, there will not exist a wall along the 1,954 mile border shared with Mexico within 8 years of inauguration. ",98,,"splorridge","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-14T10:44:25.000Z","2016-02-13T02:58:14.000Z","2025-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Independent of the next elected president of the United States, there will not exist a wall along the 1,954 mile border shared with Mexico within 8 years of inauguration. ",40,,"themusicgod1","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-06T21:46:53.000Z","2016-02-13T02:58:14.000Z","2025-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Independent of the next elected president of the United States, there will not exist a wall along the 1,954 mile border shared with Mexico within 8 years of inauguration. ",95,,"Temeraire","jesselevine","I assume this means more than a fence",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-14T19:38:01.000Z","2016-02-13T02:58:14.000Z","2025-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Independent of the next elected president of the United States, there will not exist a wall along the 1,954 mile border shared with Mexico within 8 years of inauguration. ",85,,"Temeraire","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-28T04:39:47.000Z","2016-02-13T02:58:14.000Z","2025-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Independent of the next elected president of the United States, there will not exist a wall along the 1,954 mile border shared with Mexico within 8 years of inauguration. ",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","jesselevine","It would be much more plausible to build a fence, but expensive, and in just 8 years even that would be a massive construction task that the USA has never done before.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-13T14:07:35.000Z","2016-02-13T02:58:14.000Z","2025-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Independent of the next elected president of the United States, there will not exist a wall along the 1,954 mile border shared with Mexico within 8 years of inauguration. ",94,,"JoshuaZ","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-13T13:09:44.000Z","2016-02-13T02:58:14.000Z","2025-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Independent of the next elected president of the United States, there will not exist a wall along the 1,954 mile border shared with Mexico within 8 years of inauguration. ",98,,"jesselevine","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-13T02:58:14.000Z","2016-02-13T02:58:14.000Z","2025-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Independent of the next elected president of the United States, there will not exist a wall along the 1,954 mile border shared with Mexico within 8 years of inauguration. ",10,,"NickN","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-19T22:53:17.113Z","2016-02-13T02:58:14.000Z","2025-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"The worlds first ""truely"" cryogenic sleep chamber will go online in Feb. 2027, fixing a flawed design and conditions for cryogenic stasis.",0,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T21:12:04.323Z","2011-11-17T03:36:10.000Z","2027-02-27T00:00:00.000Z"
"The worlds first ""truely"" cryogenic sleep chamber will go online in Feb. 2027, fixing a flawed design and conditions for cryogenic stasis.",0,,"pranomostro","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:10:55.568Z","2011-11-17T03:36:10.000Z","2027-02-27T00:00:00.000Z"
"The worlds first ""truely"" cryogenic sleep chamber will go online in Feb. 2027, fixing a flawed design and conditions for cryogenic stasis.",3,,"themusicgod1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T22:11:11.000Z","2011-11-17T03:36:10.000Z","2027-02-27T00:00:00.000Z"
"The worlds first ""truely"" cryogenic sleep chamber will go online in Feb. 2027, fixing a flawed design and conditions for cryogenic stasis.",0,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T00:05:44.000Z","2011-11-17T03:36:10.000Z","2027-02-27T00:00:00.000Z"
"The worlds first ""truely"" cryogenic sleep chamber will go online in Feb. 2027, fixing a flawed design and conditions for cryogenic stasis.",0,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-05T01:14:10.000Z","2011-11-17T03:36:10.000Z","2027-02-27T00:00:00.000Z"
"The worlds first ""truely"" cryogenic sleep chamber will go online in Feb. 2027, fixing a flawed design and conditions for cryogenic stasis.",0,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-05T01:14:05.000Z","2011-11-17T03:36:10.000Z","2027-02-27T00:00:00.000Z"
"The worlds first ""truely"" cryogenic sleep chamber will go online in Feb. 2027, fixing a flawed design and conditions for cryogenic stasis.",0,,"Isaac","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-18T03:24:00.000Z","2011-11-17T03:36:10.000Z","2027-02-27T00:00:00.000Z"
"The worlds first ""truely"" cryogenic sleep chamber will go online in Feb. 2027, fixing a flawed design and conditions for cryogenic stasis.",0,,"gwern","Harbinger1","don't even know what this means. also, specific to the month out 16 years?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T20:27:24.000Z","2011-11-17T03:36:10.000Z","2027-02-27T00:00:00.000Z"
"The worlds first ""truely"" cryogenic sleep chamber will go online in Feb. 2027, fixing a flawed design and conditions for cryogenic stasis.",0,,"lavalamp","Harbinger1","waaaay too specific",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T16:46:59.000Z","2011-11-17T03:36:10.000Z","2027-02-27T00:00:00.000Z"
"The worlds first ""truely"" cryogenic sleep chamber will go online in Feb. 2027, fixing a flawed design and conditions for cryogenic stasis.",0,,"Jayson Virissimo","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T06:02:39.000Z","2011-11-17T03:36:10.000Z","2027-02-27T00:00:00.000Z"
"The worlds first ""truely"" cryogenic sleep chamber will go online in Feb. 2027, fixing a flawed design and conditions for cryogenic stasis.",1,,"Anubhav","Harbinger1","Assuming that this refers (more broadly) to the first instance of a new and improved cryogenic chamber. 'Flawed design' is ambiguous. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T05:18:45.000Z","2011-11-17T03:36:10.000Z","2027-02-27T00:00:00.000Z"
"The worlds first ""truely"" cryogenic sleep chamber will go online in Feb. 2027, fixing a flawed design and conditions for cryogenic stasis.",1,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1","Harbinger, where are you getting these extremely precise predictions from? ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T03:58:28.000Z","2011-11-17T03:36:10.000Z","2027-02-27T00:00:00.000Z"
"The worlds first ""truely"" cryogenic sleep chamber will go online in Feb. 2027, fixing a flawed design and conditions for cryogenic stasis.",60,,"Harbinger1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T03:36:10.000Z","2011-11-17T03:36:10.000Z","2027-02-27T00:00:00.000Z"
"""In the next 20 years driverless cars will be a reality, there won't be any cab drivers."" Russ Roberts",82,,"Pablo","rebellionkid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-10T22:35:14.000Z","2014-07-11T11:13:15.000Z","2034-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In the next 20 years driverless cars will be a reality, there won't be any cab drivers."" Russ Roberts",2,,"NickN","rebellionkid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T01:55:02.185Z","2014-07-11T11:13:15.000Z","2034-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In the next 20 years driverless cars will be a reality, there won't be any cab drivers."" Russ Roberts",90,,"rebellionkid","rebellionkid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-07-11T11:13:16.000Z","2014-07-11T11:13:15.000Z","2034-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In the next 20 years driverless cars will be a reality, there won't be any cab drivers."" Russ Roberts",67,,"holycow81","rebellionkid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-07-12T01:59:59.000Z","2014-07-11T11:13:15.000Z","2034-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In the next 20 years driverless cars will be a reality, there won't be any cab drivers."" Russ Roberts",51,,"Ben Doherty","rebellionkid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-07-14T12:12:30.000Z","2014-07-11T11:13:15.000Z","2034-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In the next 20 years driverless cars will be a reality, there won't be any cab drivers."" Russ Roberts",45,,"Patrick Brinich-Langlois","rebellionkid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-07-18T06:37:21.000Z","2014-07-11T11:13:15.000Z","2034-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In the next 20 years driverless cars will be a reality, there won't be any cab drivers."" Russ Roberts",80,,"qznc","rebellionkid","I think there will still be cab drivers/chauffeurs for prestige reasons, though.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-07-18T13:01:12.000Z","2014-07-11T11:13:15.000Z","2034-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In the next 20 years driverless cars will be a reality, there won't be any cab drivers."" Russ Roberts",70,,"HonoreDB","rebellionkid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-07-20T17:24:55.000Z","2014-07-11T11:13:15.000Z","2034-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In the next 20 years driverless cars will be a reality, there won't be any cab drivers."" Russ Roberts",90,,"themusicgod1","rebellionkid","same as qznc",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-10T00:38:07.000Z","2014-07-11T11:13:15.000Z","2034-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first truly human telepathic-link will occur in 2065 via a biometric implant.",0,,"deleteyourbrain","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:21:32.095Z","2011-11-17T02:31:41.000Z","2065-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first truly human telepathic-link will occur in 2065 via a biometric implant.",0,,"pranomostro","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:19:37.158Z","2011-11-17T02:31:41.000Z","2065-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first truly human telepathic-link will occur in 2065 via a biometric implant.",1,,"gwern","Harbinger1","interpreting as 'only in 2065 and not any year before'; see also by 2025: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/4304",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T20:21:52.000Z","2011-11-17T02:31:41.000Z","2065-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first truly human telepathic-link will occur in 2065 via a biometric implant.",1,,"lavalamp","Harbinger1","way too specific",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T16:59:08.000Z","2011-11-17T02:31:41.000Z","2065-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first truly human telepathic-link will occur in 2065 via a biometric implant.",0,,"Jayson Virissimo","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T06:06:12.000Z","2011-11-17T02:31:41.000Z","2065-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first truly human telepathic-link will occur in 2065 via a biometric implant.",0,,"Anubhav","Harbinger1","Going with 'in 2065'. Seeing as this is likely to be ~20 years past singularity, we'd have had telepathy for a long time already. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T04:52:55.000Z","2011-11-17T02:31:41.000Z","2065-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first truly human telepathic-link will occur in 2065 via a biometric implant.",75,,"Harbinger1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T02:31:41.000Z","2011-11-17T02:31:41.000Z","2065-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first truly human telepathic-link will occur in 2065 via a biometric implant.",0,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T19:06:14.521Z","2011-11-17T02:31:41.000Z","2065-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first truly human telepathic-link will occur in 2065 via a biometric implant.",1,,"pranomostro","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:19:47.612Z","2011-11-17T02:31:41.000Z","2065-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first truly human telepathic-link will occur in 2065 via a biometric implant.",0,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:44:24.000Z","2011-11-17T02:31:41.000Z","2065-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first truly human telepathic-link will occur in 2065 via a biometric implant.",3,,"themusicgod1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T22:05:20.000Z","2011-11-17T02:31:41.000Z","2065-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first truly human telepathic-link will occur in 2065 via a biometric implant.",0,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1","Interpreting this as exactly in 2065 and not before, assign a low probability to a Singularity, assign a high chance a  if it occurs will wipe us out or render biological humans non-existent. Given no Sing, this seems likely to happen  before 2065. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T04:56:43.000Z","2011-11-17T02:31:41.000Z","2065-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kanye West will be U.S. President-elect before 2025",1,,"KnaveOfAllTrades","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-19T17:48:24.000Z","2016-02-14T20:47:36.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Kanye West will be U.S. President-elect before 2025",0,,"btrettel","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-28T23:47:03.000Z","2016-02-14T20:47:36.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Kanye West will be U.S. President-elect before 2025",0,,"themusicgod1","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-16T02:07:55.000Z","2016-02-14T20:47:36.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Kanye West will be U.S. President-elect before 2025",0,,"splorridge","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-15T13:40:12.000Z","2016-02-14T20:47:36.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Kanye West will be U.S. President-elect before 2025",0,,"JoshuaZ","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-14T21:11:23.000Z","2016-02-14T20:47:36.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Kanye West will be U.S. President-elect before 2025",0,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","bobpage","Hurry up with ma damn croissants!",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-14T20:49:30.000Z","2016-02-14T20:47:36.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Kanye West will be U.S. President-elect before 2025",0,,"bobpage","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-14T20:47:36.000Z","2016-02-14T20:47:36.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Kanye West will be U.S. President-elect before 2025",0,,"NickN","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-19T22:53:33.638Z","2016-02-14T20:47:36.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Kanye West will be U.S. President-elect before 2025",0,,"EloiseRosen","bobpage","related: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/146118",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-15T00:42:11.000Z","2016-02-14T20:47:36.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Demonstration of energy-positive fusion power plant by the end of 2035.",40,,"pranomostro","PlacidPlatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-02T21:06:10.000Z","2018-05-10T23:23:23.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Demonstration of energy-positive fusion power plant by the end of 2035.",40,,"Baeboo","PlacidPlatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T00:38:15.654Z","2018-05-10T23:23:23.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Demonstration of energy-positive fusion power plant by the end of 2035.",40,,"Medea","PlacidPlatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-11T17:15:24.432Z","2018-05-10T23:23:23.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Demonstration of energy-positive fusion power plant by the end of 2035.",10,,"moyamo","PlacidPlatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-06-11T12:46:01.000Z","2018-05-10T23:23:23.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Demonstration of energy-positive fusion power plant by the end of 2035.",25,,"PlacidPlatypus","PlacidPlatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-10T23:23:23.000Z","2018-05-10T23:23:23.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Demonstration of energy-positive fusion power plant by the end of 2035.",59,,"stepan","PlacidPlatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-24T17:42:22.460Z","2018-05-10T23:23:23.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Demonstration of energy-positive fusion power plant by the end of 2035.",30,,"Athrithalix","PlacidPlatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-11T08:08:23.000Z","2018-05-10T23:23:23.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Demonstration of energy-positive fusion power plant by the end of 2035.",20,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","PlacidPlatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-03T07:00:43.001Z","2018-05-10T23:23:23.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Demonstration of energy-positive fusion power plant by the end of 2035.",22,,"JoshuaZ","PlacidPlatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-06T12:53:33.750Z","2018-05-10T23:23:23.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Demonstration of energy-positive fusion power plant by the end of 2035.",25,,"Baeboo","PlacidPlatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T05:11:46.713Z","2018-05-10T23:23:23.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next 40 years, at least 1 Nobel Prize Literature will go to someone with a LessWrong account.",1,,"Pablo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T06:38:30.000Z","2012-09-08T17:52:41.000Z","2052-09-08T17:52:41.000Z"
"In the next 40 years, at least 1 Nobel Prize Literature will go to someone with a LessWrong account.",2,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T01:46:23.184Z","2012-09-08T17:52:41.000Z","2052-09-08T17:52:41.000Z"
"In the next 40 years, at least 1 Nobel Prize Literature will go to someone with a LessWrong account.",1,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:59:47.106Z","2012-09-08T17:52:41.000Z","2052-09-08T17:52:41.000Z"
"In the next 40 years, at least 1 Nobel Prize Literature will go to someone with a LessWrong account.",63,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T12:59:00.000Z","2012-09-08T17:52:41.000Z","2052-09-08T17:52:41.000Z"
"In the next 40 years, at least 1 Nobel Prize Literature will go to someone with a LessWrong account.",1,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-08T19:54:23.000Z","2012-09-08T17:52:41.000Z","2052-09-08T17:52:41.000Z"
"In the next 40 years, at least 1 Nobel Prize Literature will go to someone with a LessWrong account.",0,,"Filipe","gwern","again, that was a joke.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-08T18:14:02.000Z","2012-09-08T17:52:41.000Z","2052-09-08T17:52:41.000Z"
"In the next 40 years, at least 1 Nobel Prize Literature will go to someone with a LessWrong account.",0,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-08T17:52:41.000Z","2012-09-08T17:52:41.000Z","2052-09-08T17:52:41.000Z"
"In the next 40 years, at least 1 Nobel Prize Literature will go to someone with a LessWrong account.",1,,"William-Quixote","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-10T00:04:12.000Z","2012-09-08T17:52:41.000Z","2052-09-08T17:52:41.000Z"
"In the next 40 years, at least 1 Nobel Prize Literature will go to someone with a LessWrong account.",1,,"bobpage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-08T23:08:14.000Z","2012-09-08T17:52:41.000Z","2052-09-08T17:52:41.000Z"
"The Australian Broadcasting Corporation will be privatised on or by 1/1/2030.",5,,"atroche","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-29T02:48:32.000Z","2013-11-29T00:12:55.000Z","2030-01-02T01:00:00.000Z"
"The Australian Broadcasting Corporation will be privatised on or by 1/1/2030.",10,,"gwern","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-12-04T18:41:55.000Z","2013-11-29T00:12:55.000Z","2030-01-02T01:00:00.000Z"
"The Australian Broadcasting Corporation will be privatised on or by 1/1/2030.",5,,"procran","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-03-08T01:19:37.000Z","2013-11-29T00:12:55.000Z","2030-01-02T01:00:00.000Z"
"The Australian Broadcasting Corporation will be privatised on or by 1/1/2030.",10,,"danielfilan","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-05T02:57:52.000Z","2013-11-29T00:12:55.000Z","2030-01-02T01:00:00.000Z"
"The Australian Broadcasting Corporation will be privatised on or by 1/1/2030.",8,,"RainbowSpacedancer","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-02T02:28:59.000Z","2013-11-29T00:12:55.000Z","2030-01-02T01:00:00.000Z"
"The Australian Broadcasting Corporation will be privatised on or by 1/1/2030.",1,,"najdorf","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-29T00:12:55.000Z","2013-11-29T00:12:55.000Z","2030-01-02T01:00:00.000Z"
"The Australian Broadcasting Corporation will be privatised on or by 1/1/2030.",15,,"JoshuaZ","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-05T12:09:08.000Z","2013-11-29T00:12:55.000Z","2030-01-02T01:00:00.000Z"
"The Australian Broadcasting Corporation will be privatised on or by 1/1/2030.",5,,"PipFoweraker","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-30T00:14:58.000Z","2013-11-29T00:12:55.000Z","2030-01-02T01:00:00.000Z"
"The Australian Broadcasting Corporation will be privatised on or by 1/1/2030.",15,,"pranomostro","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T22:46:51.673Z","2013-11-29T00:12:55.000Z","2030-01-02T01:00:00.000Z"
"We will fairly convincingly know who Satoshi Nakamoto is in five years.",23,,"Baeboo","JohnGreer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T03:59:58.974Z","2018-04-13T04:54:58.000Z","2023-04-13T04:54:58.000Z"
"We will fairly convincingly know who Satoshi Nakamoto is in five years.",23,,"pranomostro","JohnGreer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T23:02:39.000Z","2018-04-13T04:54:58.000Z","2023-04-13T04:54:58.000Z"
"We will fairly convincingly know who Satoshi Nakamoto is in five years.",20,,"davatk","JohnGreer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-17T18:31:30.000Z","2018-04-13T04:54:58.000Z","2023-04-13T04:54:58.000Z"
"We will fairly convincingly know who Satoshi Nakamoto is in five years.",35,,"Jotto999","JohnGreer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-14T14:16:07.000Z","2018-04-13T04:54:58.000Z","2023-04-13T04:54:58.000Z"
"We will fairly convincingly know who Satoshi Nakamoto is in five years.",40,,"Athrithalix","JohnGreer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-13T07:55:27.000Z","2018-04-13T04:54:58.000Z","2023-04-13T04:54:58.000Z"
"We will fairly convincingly know who Satoshi Nakamoto is in five years.",65,,"JohnGreer","JohnGreer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-13T04:54:58.000Z","2018-04-13T04:54:58.000Z","2023-04-13T04:54:58.000Z"
"We will fairly convincingly know who Satoshi Nakamoto is in five years.",5,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","JohnGreer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-03T07:00:25.742Z","2018-04-13T04:54:58.000Z","2023-04-13T04:54:58.000Z"
"We will fairly convincingly know who Satoshi Nakamoto is in five years.",15,,"Baeboo","JohnGreer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T05:10:46.143Z","2018-04-13T04:54:58.000Z","2023-04-13T04:54:58.000Z"
"We will fairly convincingly know who Satoshi Nakamoto is in five years.",0,,"deleteyourbrain","JohnGreer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-25T23:49:15.446Z","2018-04-13T04:54:58.000Z","2023-04-13T04:54:58.000Z"
"We will fairly convincingly know who Satoshi Nakamoto is in five years.",30,,"peter_hurford","JohnGreer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-24T18:38:41.000Z","2018-04-13T04:54:58.000Z","2023-04-13T04:54:58.000Z"
"By 2046 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125",69,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T19:10:30.021Z","2011-11-16T14:34:57.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2046 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125",50,,"deleteyourbrain","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:28:23.424Z","2011-11-16T14:34:57.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2046 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125",70,,"Baeboo","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-21T21:04:53.101Z","2011-11-16T14:34:57.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2046 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125",68,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T21:12:25.414Z","2011-11-16T14:34:57.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2046 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125",60,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:27:36.879Z","2011-11-16T14:34:57.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2046 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125",70,,"Malgidus","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-27T20:46:19.000Z","2011-11-16T14:34:57.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2046 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125",5,,"Harbinger1","JoshuaZ","will happen sooner",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T06:04:15.000Z","2011-11-16T14:34:57.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2046 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125",65,,"gwern","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-16T21:47:00.000Z","2011-11-16T14:34:57.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2046 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125",67,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:24:03.718Z","2011-11-16T14:34:57.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2046 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125",80,,"kilobug","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-18T17:13:20.000Z","2011-11-16T14:34:57.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2046 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125",80,,"RobertLumley","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-16T16:30:03.000Z","2011-11-16T14:34:57.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2046 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125",71,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-16T14:34:57.000Z","2011-11-16T14:34:57.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"An alive human from the Mars One organisation will have been on Mars before January 1st 2024.",2,,"mfb","Mati Roy",".",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-04-02T22:23:26.000Z","2014-03-09T20:57:09.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"An alive human from the Mars One organisation will have been on Mars before January 1st 2024.",1,,"rebellionkid","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-08T23:47:56.000Z","2014-03-09T20:57:09.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"An alive human from the Mars One organisation will have been on Mars before January 1st 2024.",3,,"procran","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-03-09T22:33:46.000Z","2014-03-09T20:57:09.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"An alive human from the Mars One organisation will have been on Mars before January 1st 2024.",10,,"chemotaxis101","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-03-11T06:31:17.000Z","2014-03-09T20:57:09.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"An alive human from the Mars One organisation will have been on Mars before January 1st 2024.",12,,"Coornail","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-03-21T14:27:24.000Z","2014-03-09T20:57:09.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"An alive human from the Mars One organisation will have been on Mars before January 1st 2024.",1,,"JoshuaZ","Mati Roy","Can someone please fix the bug forcing us to add entries to the comment box? ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-04-03T00:32:22.000Z","2014-03-09T20:57:09.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"An alive human from the Mars One organisation will have been on Mars before January 1st 2024.",1,,"unique2","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-04-29T20:17:22.000Z","2014-03-09T20:57:09.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"An alive human from the Mars One organisation will have been on Mars before January 1st 2024.",1,,"nshepperd","Mati Roy","Mars One is rather a joke.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-08T14:22:56.000Z","2014-03-09T20:57:09.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"An alive human from the Mars One organisation will have been on Mars before January 1st 2024.",29,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-03-09T20:57:09.000Z","2014-03-09T20:57:09.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Sweden becomes the first oil-free country' by 2021",55,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-23T00:45:41.000Z","2010-10-23T00:45:41.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Sweden becomes the first oil-free country' by 2021",5,,"Emanuel Rylke","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-29T14:57:12.000Z","2010-10-23T00:45:41.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Sweden becomes the first oil-free country' by 2021",45,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-29T18:18:48.000Z","2010-10-23T00:45:41.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Sweden becomes the first oil-free country' by 2021",35,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-09T19:30:02.388Z","2010-10-23T00:45:41.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Sweden becomes the first oil-free country' by 2021",35,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-10T00:16:58.447Z","2010-10-23T00:45:41.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Sweden becomes the first oil-free country' by 2021",0,,"NickN","gwern","Doesn't seem likely  https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/sweden/oil-consumption",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-17T01:13:16.487Z","2010-10-23T00:45:41.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Sweden becomes the first oil-free country' by 2021",18,,"Grognor","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-06T20:29:48.000Z","2010-10-23T00:45:41.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Sweden becomes the first oil-free country' by 2021",2,,"RandomThinker","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-29T17:47:23.000Z","2010-10-23T00:45:41.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Sweden becomes the first oil-free country' by 2021",29,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T01:55:55.000Z","2010-10-23T00:45:41.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2061, India will be the world's largest economy --Scott Sumner",10,,"Pablo","gwern","I can see few scenarios where India's economy is larger than China's.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T07:41:52.000Z","2011-07-10T19:39:48.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2061, India will be the world's largest economy --Scott Sumner",15,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:00:13.910Z","2011-07-10T19:39:48.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2061, India will be the world's largest economy --Scott Sumner",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T01:15:11.000Z","2011-07-10T19:39:48.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2061, India will be the world's largest economy --Scott Sumner",25,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T10:56:23.000Z","2011-07-10T19:39:48.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2061, India will be the world's largest economy --Scott Sumner",20,,"Konkvistador","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-21T20:57:36.000Z","2011-07-10T19:39:48.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2061, India will be the world's largest economy --Scott Sumner",2,,"bobpage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-21T04:06:21.000Z","2011-07-10T19:39:48.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2061, India will be the world's largest economy --Scott Sumner",20,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:00:02.508Z","2011-07-10T19:39:48.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2061, India will be the world's largest economy --Scott Sumner",30,,"RandomThinker","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-28T08:54:13.000Z","2011-07-10T19:39:48.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2061, India will be the world's largest economy --Scott Sumner",20,,"Athrelon","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-27T23:36:02.000Z","2011-07-10T19:39:48.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2061, India will be the world's largest economy --Scott Sumner",30,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-10T19:39:48.000Z","2011-07-10T19:39:48.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next 10 years Columbus Day will stop being a US federal holiday, or will be changed to Indigenous People's Day or some other non-Columbus-themed alternative.",20,,"danielfilan","EloiseRosen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-14T23:25:44.000Z","2015-10-13T13:42:49.000Z","2025-10-13T16:00:00.000Z"
"In the next 10 years Columbus Day will stop being a US federal holiday, or will be changed to Indigenous People's Day or some other non-Columbus-themed alternative.",7,,"Temeraire","EloiseRosen","Base rate seems low
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_holidays_in_the_United_States#Former_federal_holidays",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-12T02:35:03.000Z","2015-10-13T13:42:49.000Z","2025-10-13T16:00:00.000Z"
"In the next 10 years Columbus Day will stop being a US federal holiday, or will be changed to Indigenous People's Day or some other non-Columbus-themed alternative.",35,,"EloiseRosen","EloiseRosen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-13T13:42:49.000Z","2015-10-13T13:42:49.000Z","2025-10-13T16:00:00.000Z"
"In the next 10 years Columbus Day will stop being a US federal holiday, or will be changed to Indigenous People's Day or some other non-Columbus-themed alternative.",35,,"JoshuaZ","EloiseRosen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-13T15:03:41.000Z","2015-10-13T13:42:49.000Z","2025-10-13T16:00:00.000Z"
"In the next 10 years Columbus Day will stop being a US federal holiday, or will be changed to Indigenous People's Day or some other non-Columbus-themed alternative.",20,,"Medea","EloiseRosen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-14T09:51:59.000Z","2015-10-13T13:42:49.000Z","2025-10-13T16:00:00.000Z"
"In the next 10 years Columbus Day will stop being a US federal holiday, or will be changed to Indigenous People's Day or some other non-Columbus-themed alternative.",15,,"Josh Holland","EloiseRosen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-15T09:20:03.000Z","2015-10-13T13:42:49.000Z","2025-10-13T16:00:00.000Z"
"In the next 10 years Columbus Day will stop being a US federal holiday, or will be changed to Indigenous People's Day or some other non-Columbus-themed alternative.",40,,"Lissy","EloiseRosen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-04T02:01:05.000Z","2015-10-13T13:42:49.000Z","2025-10-13T16:00:00.000Z"
"In the next 10 years Columbus Day will stop being a US federal holiday, or will be changed to Indigenous People's Day or some other non-Columbus-themed alternative.",27,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","EloiseRosen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-17T09:04:22.000Z","2015-10-13T13:42:49.000Z","2025-10-13T16:00:00.000Z"
"In the next 10 years Columbus Day will stop being a US federal holiday, or will be changed to Indigenous People's Day or some other non-Columbus-themed alternative.",44,,"themusicgod1","EloiseRosen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T18:26:50.000Z","2015-10-13T13:42:49.000Z","2025-10-13T16:00:00.000Z"
"In the next 10 years Columbus Day will stop being a US federal holiday, or will be changed to Indigenous People's Day or some other non-Columbus-themed alternative.",10,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","EloiseRosen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-25T12:46:15.545Z","2015-10-13T13:42:49.000Z","2025-10-13T16:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, more motor vehicle engines will be manufactured using ""3D printing"" technology than by any conventional manufacturing process. ",8,,"pranomostro","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:34:24.286Z","2011-11-12T05:21:01.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, more motor vehicle engines will be manufactured using ""3D printing"" technology than by any conventional manufacturing process. ",7,,"lavalamp","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-15T01:20:13.000Z","2011-11-12T05:21:01.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, more motor vehicle engines will be manufactured using ""3D printing"" technology than by any conventional manufacturing process. ",10,,"gwern","NathanMcKnight","agree, why do vehicle engines need customization and small runs, which are where 3D printing beats efficient mass-run molds and techniques?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-12T17:00:18.000Z","2011-11-12T05:21:01.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, more motor vehicle engines will be manufactured using ""3D printing"" technology than by any conventional manufacturing process. ",5,,"fork","NathanMcKnight","Wouldn't you need an amazing material sciences breakthrough?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-12T06:15:39.000Z","2011-11-12T05:21:01.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, more motor vehicle engines will be manufactured using ""3D printing"" technology than by any conventional manufacturing process. ",70,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-12T05:21:01.000Z","2011-11-12T05:21:01.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, more motor vehicle engines will be manufactured using ""3D printing"" technology than by any conventional manufacturing process. ",12,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T22:25:27.000Z","2011-11-12T05:21:01.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, more motor vehicle engines will be manufactured using ""3D printing"" technology than by any conventional manufacturing process. ",19,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T21:13:30.000Z","2011-11-12T05:21:01.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, more motor vehicle engines will be manufactured using ""3D printing"" technology than by any conventional manufacturing process. ",5,,"kilobug","NathanMcKnight","3d printers can't complex, small, delicate mechanism as for now... and won't be efficient for doing so for a while",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-19T16:28:47.000Z","2011-11-12T05:21:01.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, more motor vehicle engines will be manufactured using ""3D printing"" technology than by any conventional manufacturing process. ",11,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-13T17:07:37.000Z","2011-11-12T05:21:01.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, more motor vehicle engines will be manufactured using ""3D printing"" technology than by any conventional manufacturing process. ",20,,"Anubhav","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-12T05:37:05.000Z","2011-11-12T05:21:01.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"As a normal member of the public, if you visit America (California, etc.) you will be able to order a lift service (Uber, etc.) without a human driver at the wheel, for a price similar to the rates of current lift services, adjusted for inflation.",42,,"JoshuaZ","Emmanuel M. Smith","Too soon. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-07-16T11:42:39.000Z","2017-05-26T20:19:21.000Z","2022-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"As a normal member of the public, if you visit America (California, etc.) you will be able to order a lift service (Uber, etc.) without a human driver at the wheel, for a price similar to the rates of current lift services, adjusted for inflation.",55,,"Jayson Virissimo","Emmanuel M. Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-07T01:17:00.000Z","2017-05-26T20:19:21.000Z","2022-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"As a normal member of the public, if you visit America (California, etc.) you will be able to order a lift service (Uber, etc.) without a human driver at the wheel, for a price similar to the rates of current lift services, adjusted for inflation.",80,,"Emmanuel M. Smith","Emmanuel M. Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-26T20:19:21.000Z","2017-05-26T20:19:21.000Z","2022-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"As a normal member of the public, if you visit America (California, etc.) you will be able to order a lift service (Uber, etc.) without a human driver at the wheel, for a price similar to the rates of current lift services, adjusted for inflation.",65,,"Emmanuel M. Smith","Emmanuel M. Smith","Events such as the Uber death sceanario leads me to believe that there might be legal blocks which will delay my prediction.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-20T15:12:34.179Z","2017-05-26T20:19:21.000Z","2022-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"As a normal member of the public, if you visit America (California, etc.) you will be able to order a lift service (Uber, etc.) without a human driver at the wheel, for a price similar to the rates of current lift services, adjusted for inflation.",90,,"PseudonymousUser","Emmanuel M. Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-23T02:41:48.000Z","2017-05-26T20:19:21.000Z","2022-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"As a normal member of the public, if you visit America (California, etc.) you will be able to order a lift service (Uber, etc.) without a human driver at the wheel, for a price similar to the rates of current lift services, adjusted for inflation.",60,,"jcmlima","Emmanuel M. Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-07-13T13:14:45.000Z","2017-05-26T20:19:21.000Z","2022-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"As a normal member of the public, if you visit America (California, etc.) you will be able to order a lift service (Uber, etc.) without a human driver at the wheel, for a price similar to the rates of current lift services, adjusted for inflation.",55,,"tehcrash","Emmanuel M. Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-17T19:07:32.000Z","2017-05-26T20:19:21.000Z","2022-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"As a normal member of the public, if you visit America (California, etc.) you will be able to order a lift service (Uber, etc.) without a human driver at the wheel, for a price similar to the rates of current lift services, adjusted for inflation.",75,,"penten","Emmanuel M. Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-30T08:46:28.000Z","2017-05-26T20:19:21.000Z","2022-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"As a normal member of the public, if you visit America (California, etc.) you will be able to order a lift service (Uber, etc.) without a human driver at the wheel, for a price similar to the rates of current lift services, adjusted for inflation.",51,,"themusicgod1","Emmanuel M. Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-26T20:23:16.000Z","2017-05-26T20:19:21.000Z","2022-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"As a normal member of the public, if you visit America (California, etc.) you will be able to order a lift service (Uber, etc.) without a human driver at the wheel, for a price similar to the rates of current lift services, adjusted for inflation.",44,,"JoshuaZ","Emmanuel M. Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-24T20:19:34.071Z","2017-05-26T20:19:21.000Z","2022-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"As a normal member of the public, if you visit America (California, etc.) you will be able to order a lift service (Uber, etc.) without a human driver at the wheel, for a price similar to the rates of current lift services, adjusted for inflation.",60,,"Emmanuel M. Smith","Emmanuel M. Smith","https://mastodon.social/@mraxilus/103664778676674217",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-15T20:39:30.246Z","2017-05-26T20:19:21.000Z","2022-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"As a normal member of the public, if you visit America (California, etc.) you will be able to order a lift service (Uber, etc.) without a human driver at the wheel, for a price similar to the rates of current lift services, adjusted for inflation.",10,,"NickN","Emmanuel M. Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T02:58:38.867Z","2017-05-26T20:19:21.000Z","2022-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"At least 25% of all total meals in the world will be prepared by robot chefs by 2025",42,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T02:04:02.000Z","2015-08-02T19:36:19.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 25% of all total meals in the world will be prepared by robot chefs by 2025",1,,"ZeitPolizei","InquilineKea","too easy, cheap and fun to do by humans, too difficult for robots. robovacs have been around for 10 years and are only just reaching 20% market share.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-06T08:30:10.000Z","2015-08-02T19:36:19.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 25% of all total meals in the world will be prepared by robot chefs by 2025",3,,"silacoid","InquilineKea","It's all meals for more than 1 billion people, in 10 1/2 years.
Condition: This will have to be locally prepared food, factory robots does not count.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-05T12:22:29.000Z","2015-08-02T19:36:19.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 25% of all total meals in the world will be prepared by robot chefs by 2025",30,,"HonoreDB","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-04T18:48:08.000Z","2015-08-02T19:36:19.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 25% of all total meals in the world will be prepared by robot chefs by 2025",5,,"btrettel","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-03T15:57:24.000Z","2015-08-02T19:36:19.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 25% of all total meals in the world will be prepared by robot chefs by 2025",10,,"espore","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-02T21:01:20.000Z","2015-08-02T19:36:19.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 25% of all total meals in the world will be prepared by robot chefs by 2025",45,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-02T19:36:19.000Z","2015-08-02T19:36:19.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 25% of all total meals in the world will be prepared by robot chefs by 2025",0,,"sebbit","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-07T22:54:03.202Z","2015-08-02T19:36:19.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 25% of all total meals in the world will be prepared by robot chefs by 2025",0,,"NickN","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T01:33:24.229Z","2015-08-02T19:36:19.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump creates ""world peace"" before leaving office",0,,"tedks","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-29T02:41:51.000Z","2017-05-18T04:36:56.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump creates ""world peace"" before leaving office",1,,"Bruno Parga","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-28T16:54:24.000Z","2017-05-18T04:36:56.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump creates ""world peace"" before leaving office",1,,"Michael Dickens","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-20T18:26:11.000Z","2017-05-18T04:36:56.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump creates ""world peace"" before leaving office",1,,"aseyfarth","themusicgod1","Seems ill-defined.  I wouldn't call it true unless there are no wars, and no national actors with contradictory interests that could be imagined going to war over them. Unlikely.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-19T15:20:19.000Z","2017-05-18T04:36:56.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump creates ""world peace"" before leaving office",11,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-18T04:36:56.000Z","2017-05-18T04:36:56.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump creates ""world peace"" before leaving office",0,,"Bruno Parga","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T12:21:13.500Z","2017-05-18T04:36:56.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump creates ""world peace"" before leaving office",0,,"PlacidPlatypus","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-01T02:16:43.000Z","2017-05-18T04:36:56.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump creates ""world peace"" before leaving office",15,,"Bismagician","themusicgod1","15% only because I think he's such a bubbling moron he might acheive by pure accident. (Agree, nuclear extinction doesn't count)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-18T15:13:37.000Z","2017-05-18T04:36:56.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump creates ""world peace"" before leaving office",1,,"NickN","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T00:35:43.198Z","2017-05-18T04:36:56.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump creates ""world peace"" before leaving office",0,,"PseudonymousUser","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-23T02:43:41.000Z","2017-05-18T04:36:56.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'By 2030, we are likely to have developed no-frills brain-machine interfaces, allowing the paralysed to dance in their thought-controlled exoskeleton suits.' --David Eagleman",25,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-03T23:14:06.000Z","2011-01-03T16:23:06.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'By 2030, we are likely to have developed no-frills brain-machine interfaces, allowing the paralysed to dance in their thought-controlled exoskeleton suits.' --David Eagleman",82,,"JFE","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-06T11:08:19.000Z","2011-01-03T16:23:06.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'By 2030, we are likely to have developed no-frills brain-machine interfaces, allowing the paralysed to dance in their thought-controlled exoskeleton suits.' --David Eagleman",50,,"gimpf","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-09T12:04:23.000Z","2011-01-03T16:23:06.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'By 2030, we are likely to have developed no-frills brain-machine interfaces, allowing the paralysed to dance in their thought-controlled exoskeleton suits.' --David Eagleman",20,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:13:40.124Z","2011-01-03T16:23:06.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'By 2030, we are likely to have developed no-frills brain-machine interfaces, allowing the paralysed to dance in their thought-controlled exoskeleton suits.' --David Eagleman",30,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:13:47.344Z","2011-01-03T16:23:06.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'By 2030, we are likely to have developed no-frills brain-machine interfaces, allowing the paralysed to dance in their thought-controlled exoskeleton suits.' --David Eagleman",15,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-03T16:23:06.000Z","2011-01-03T16:23:06.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'By 2030, we are likely to have developed no-frills brain-machine interfaces, allowing the paralysed to dance in their thought-controlled exoskeleton suits.' --David Eagleman",10,,"kallman","gwern","A grand and intoxicating vision, but lets walk before we run.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-04T09:15:31.000Z","2011-01-03T16:23:06.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'By 2030, we are likely to have developed no-frills brain-machine interfaces, allowing the paralysed to dance in their thought-controlled exoskeleton suits.' --David Eagleman",10,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-12T13:58:39.000Z","2011-01-03T16:23:06.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'By 2030, we are likely to have developed no-frills brain-machine interfaces, allowing the paralysed to dance in their thought-controlled exoskeleton suits.' --David Eagleman",40,,"Malgidus","gwern","There will likely be a few frills.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-27T22:21:12.000Z","2011-01-03T16:23:06.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'By 2030, we are likely to have developed no-frills brain-machine interfaces, allowing the paralysed to dance in their thought-controlled exoskeleton suits.' --David Eagleman",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T03:57:56.000Z","2011-01-03T16:23:06.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'By 2030, we are likely to have developed no-frills brain-machine interfaces, allowing the paralysed to dance in their thought-controlled exoskeleton suits.' --David Eagleman",28,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-09T13:52:33.290Z","2011-01-03T16:23:06.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2040 The ""Universal Replicator,"" based on nanotechnology, is perfected: any object, however complex, can be created - given the necessary raw materials. Diamonds or gourmet meals can, literally, be made from dirt.' --Arthur C. Clarke",0,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-26T16:38:46.000Z","2010-10-26T16:38:46.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2040 The ""Universal Replicator,"" based on nanotechnology, is perfected: any object, however complex, can be created - given the necessary raw materials. Diamonds or gourmet meals can, literally, be made from dirt.' --Arthur C. Clarke",0,,"TheScholar","gwern","Not going to happen.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-29T21:50:01.000Z","2010-10-26T16:38:46.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2040 The ""Universal Replicator,"" based on nanotechnology, is perfected: any object, however complex, can be created - given the necessary raw materials. Diamonds or gourmet meals can, literally, be made from dirt.' --Arthur C. Clarke",0,,"kallman","gwern","Fancy idea - way too energy expensive. Artificial diamond, sure. By nano-assembly? Probably not.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-22T23:13:36.000Z","2010-10-26T16:38:46.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2040 The ""Universal Replicator,"" based on nanotechnology, is perfected: any object, however complex, can be created - given the necessary raw materials. Diamonds or gourmet meals can, literally, be made from dirt.' --Arthur C. Clarke",1,,"anonym","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-27T20:33:03.000Z","2010-10-26T16:38:46.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2040 The ""Universal Replicator,"" based on nanotechnology, is perfected: any object, however complex, can be created - given the necessary raw materials. Diamonds or gourmet meals can, literally, be made from dirt.' --Arthur C. Clarke",1,,"gimpf","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-12-12T18:13:46.000Z","2010-10-26T16:38:46.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2040 The ""Universal Replicator,"" based on nanotechnology, is perfected: any object, however complex, can be created - given the necessary raw materials. Diamonds or gourmet meals can, literally, be made from dirt.' --Arthur C. Clarke",5,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-01T14:14:24.000Z","2010-10-26T16:38:46.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2040 The ""Universal Replicator,"" based on nanotechnology, is perfected: any object, however complex, can be created - given the necessary raw materials. Diamonds or gourmet meals can, literally, be made from dirt.' --Arthur C. Clarke",0,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-12T13:51:45.000Z","2010-10-26T16:38:46.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2040 The ""Universal Replicator,"" based on nanotechnology, is perfected: any object, however complex, can be created - given the necessary raw materials. Diamonds or gourmet meals can, literally, be made from dirt.' --Arthur C. Clarke",18,,"themusicgod1","gwern","Patents on 3d printing techniques from 2020 will only just then be expiring.  We'll be too busy suing eachother and locking down tech to get this far by 2040",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T02:16:48.000Z","2010-10-26T16:38:46.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2040 The ""Universal Replicator,"" based on nanotechnology, is perfected: any object, however complex, can be created - given the necessary raw materials. Diamonds or gourmet meals can, literally, be made from dirt.' --Arthur C. Clarke",10,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:48:15.253Z","2010-10-26T16:38:46.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'I predict that the chance that a major episode of violence will break out in the next decade—a conflict with 100,000 deaths in a year, or a million deaths overall—is 9.7 percent' --Steven Pinker",20,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:51:09.289Z","2011-11-03T01:27:12.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'I predict that the chance that a major episode of violence will break out in the next decade—a conflict with 100,000 deaths in a year, or a million deaths overall—is 9.7 percent' --Steven Pinker",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern","http://www.iamsyria.org/death-tolls.html Syria won't make a million at this rate, but the stress from syria conflict causing new conflict is real.  Nevertheless now I have context for this quote, not so sure.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-06T20:28:14.000Z","2011-11-03T01:27:12.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'I predict that the chance that a major episode of violence will break out in the next decade—a conflict with 100,000 deaths in a year, or a million deaths overall—is 9.7 percent' --Steven Pinker",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-03T01:27:13.000Z","2011-11-03T01:27:12.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'I predict that the chance that a major episode of violence will break out in the next decade—a conflict with 100,000 deaths in a year, or a million deaths overall—is 9.7 percent' --Steven Pinker",74,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T05:22:13.000Z","2011-11-03T01:27:12.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'I predict that the chance that a major episode of violence will break out in the next decade—a conflict with 100,000 deaths in a year, or a million deaths overall—is 9.7 percent' --Steven Pinker",65,,"gwern","gwern","Syria is very ugly, and showing no signs of improving.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T22:55:15.000Z","2011-11-03T01:27:12.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'I predict that the chance that a major episode of violence will break out in the next decade—a conflict with 100,000 deaths in a year, or a million deaths overall—is 9.7 percent' --Steven Pinker",90,,"chemotaxis101","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-05T15:14:09.000Z","2011-11-03T01:27:12.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'I predict that the chance that a major episode of violence will break out in the next decade—a conflict with 100,000 deaths in a year, or a million deaths overall—is 9.7 percent' --Steven Pinker",80,,"tswift","gwern","I agree with Steven Pinker that it is very unlikely. Globalization prevents conflict in developed countries but it is possible in places like Africa",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-04T06:14:47.000Z","2011-11-03T01:27:12.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'I predict that the chance that a major episode of violence will break out in the next decade—a conflict with 100,000 deaths in a year, or a million deaths overall—is 9.7 percent' --Steven Pinker",80,,"tswift","gwern","I agree with Steven Pinker that it is very unlikely. Globalization prevents most conflict in developed countries but it is possible in places like Africa",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-04T06:14:47.000Z","2011-11-03T01:27:12.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'I predict that the chance that a major episode of violence will break out in the next decade—a conflict with 100,000 deaths in a year, or a million deaths overall—is 9.7 percent' --Steven Pinker",70,,"jtandy","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-03T09:11:31.000Z","2011-11-03T01:27:12.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'I predict that the chance that a major episode of violence will break out in the next decade—a conflict with 100,000 deaths in a year, or a million deaths overall—is 9.7 percent' --Steven Pinker",12,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-03T04:06:05.000Z","2011-11-03T01:27:12.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'I predict that the chance that a major episode of violence will break out in the next decade—a conflict with 100,000 deaths in a year, or a million deaths overall—is 9.7 percent' --Steven Pinker",50,,"bobpage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-03T01:45:56.000Z","2011-11-03T01:27:12.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'I predict that the chance that a major episode of violence will break out in the next decade—a conflict with 100,000 deaths in a year, or a million deaths overall—is 9.7 percent' --Steven Pinker",20,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-03T01:34:20.000Z","2011-11-03T01:27:12.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The ""technological singularity"" will be a major paradigm shift for humanity.",94,,"themusicgod1","steve1interstock",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T05:21:18.000Z","2011-11-02T15:46:17.000Z","2111-11-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"The ""technological singularity"" will be a major paradigm shift for humanity.",80,,"Anubhav","steve1interstock",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T05:10:55.000Z","2011-11-02T15:46:17.000Z","2111-11-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"The ""technological singularity"" will be a major paradigm shift for humanity.",100,,"tswift","steve1interstock","If it is widely known at the 'singularity', then yes obviously it will be a major paradigm shift.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-04T06:11:33.000Z","2011-11-02T15:46:17.000Z","2111-11-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"The ""technological singularity"" will be a major paradigm shift for humanity.",2,,"JoshuaZ","steve1interstock",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-02T16:04:30.000Z","2011-11-02T15:46:17.000Z","2111-11-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"The ""technological singularity"" will be a major paradigm shift for humanity.",100,,"Tuxedage","steve1interstock",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-03T19:38:59.000Z","2011-11-02T15:46:17.000Z","2111-11-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"The ""technological singularity"" will be a major paradigm shift for humanity.",90,,"Jayson Virissimo","steve1interstock","good point, should have thought of that",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-15T13:58:12.000Z","2011-11-02T15:46:17.000Z","2111-11-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"The ""technological singularity"" will be a major paradigm shift for humanity.",100,,"Jayson Virissimo","steve1interstock","Yes, tautologies occur with a probability of 1.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-06T10:53:52.000Z","2011-11-02T15:46:17.000Z","2111-11-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"The ""technological singularity"" will be a major paradigm shift for humanity.",100,,"antsan","steve1interstock","Isn't that tautological?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-06T10:23:04.000Z","2011-11-02T15:46:17.000Z","2111-11-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"The ""technological singularity"" will be a major paradigm shift for humanity.",100,,"kurthr","steve1interstock","This is a tautology. Any singularity will cause a paradigm shift. Perhaps the ""knee"" in the exponential will be particularly unobservable so you could have a singularity without anyone noticing?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-02T22:30:49.000Z","2011-11-02T15:46:17.000Z","2111-11-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"The ""technological singularity"" will be a major paradigm shift for humanity.",88,,"steve1interstock","steve1interstock",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-02T15:46:17.000Z","2011-11-02T15:46:17.000Z","2111-11-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump is assassinated during his first or second term.",15,,"bobpage","equivrel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-07-27T03:43:04.000Z","2017-01-29T22:42:23.000Z","2024-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump is assassinated during his first or second term.",1,,"two2thehead","equivrel","Not impossible",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-07-26T13:16:47.000Z","2017-01-29T22:42:23.000Z","2024-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump is assassinated during his first or second term.",1,,"ioannes","equivrel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-07T00:02:49.000Z","2017-01-29T22:42:23.000Z","2024-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump is assassinated during his first or second term.",8,,"playablecharacter","equivrel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-30T17:25:43.000Z","2017-01-29T22:42:23.000Z","2024-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump is assassinated during his first or second term.",15,,"equivrel","equivrel","4 presidents out of 44 have been (successfully) assassinated.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-19T11:04:21.000Z","2017-01-29T22:42:23.000Z","2024-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump is assassinated during his first or second term.",1,,"rmeador","equivrel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-31T18:28:30.000Z","2017-01-29T22:42:23.000Z","2024-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump is assassinated during his first or second term.",3,,"Temeraire","equivrel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-31T00:53:32.000Z","2017-01-29T22:42:23.000Z","2024-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump is assassinated during his first or second term.",12,,"penten","equivrel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-30T10:56:51.000Z","2017-01-29T22:42:23.000Z","2024-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump is assassinated during his first or second term.",10,,"themusicgod1","equivrel","http://predictionbook.com/predictions/119918",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-30T03:29:24.000Z","2017-01-29T22:42:23.000Z","2024-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump is assassinated during his first or second term.",5,,"equivrel","equivrel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-29T22:42:23.000Z","2017-01-29T22:42:23.000Z","2024-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"YouTube to allow searching videos by audio contained in the video by 2025",85,,"Peteris","InquilineKea","They already offer subtitles, audio search is just a decision. If YouTube doesn't dramatically changed their operational model, it is likely to happen.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-06T13:03:50.000Z","2015-07-27T22:57:00.000Z","2026-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"YouTube to allow searching videos by audio contained in the video by 2025",87,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T22:32:26.000Z","2015-07-27T22:57:00.000Z","2026-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"YouTube to allow searching videos by audio contained in the video by 2025",60,,"qap","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-10T19:53:58.000Z","2015-07-27T22:57:00.000Z","2026-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"YouTube to allow searching videos by audio contained in the video by 2025",55,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-27T22:57:01.000Z","2015-07-27T22:57:00.000Z","2026-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"YouTube to allow searching videos by audio contained in the video by 2025",74,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T20:12:48.129Z","2015-07-27T22:57:00.000Z","2026-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"YouTube to allow searching videos by audio contained in the video by 2025",80,,"davatk","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-26T16:46:07.000Z","2015-07-27T22:57:00.000Z","2026-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"YouTube to allow searching videos by audio contained in the video by 2025",99,,"two2thehead","InquilineKea","See http://predictionbook.com/predictions/65689 for my reasoning. I am assuming this to mean auto captioning technology. Note that it doesn't have to be perfect. Just good enough. Which is why this is 99 vs linked prediction being 95.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-14T00:38:48.000Z","2015-07-27T22:57:00.000Z","2026-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"YouTube to allow searching videos by audio contained in the video by 2025",10,,"espore","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-02T20:57:39.000Z","2015-07-27T22:57:00.000Z","2026-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"YouTube to allow searching videos by audio contained in the video by 2025",55,,"David","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T11:59:52.000Z","2015-07-27T22:57:00.000Z","2026-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"YouTube to allow searching videos by audio contained in the video by 2025",60,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-27T23:09:19.000Z","2015-07-27T22:57:00.000Z","2026-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","JoshuaZ","None of the people on this list will be 130 by 2025. Mathematically impossible.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oldest_people",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-16T06:53:19.000Z","2011-10-15T15:52:18.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ",0,,"muflax","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-07T11:20:25.000Z","2011-10-15T15:52:18.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ",0,,"gwern","JoshuaZ","context: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oldest_people oldest living person is now *115* years old. in 14 more years or 2025, they will be 115+14 = *129*, not 130. this prediction is 100% 'Besse Cooper will live another 14 years'!",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-07T02:06:48.000Z","2011-10-15T15:52:18.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ",3,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Updating on confidence issues. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-16T14:24:22.000Z","2011-10-15T15:52:18.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ",12,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Overestimated by a lot. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-22T23:54:10.000Z","2011-10-15T15:52:18.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ",1,,"fergus","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-22T07:00:56.000Z","2011-10-15T15:52:18.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ",0,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:24:11.310Z","2011-10-15T15:52:18.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ",0,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-11T02:15:20.000Z","2011-10-15T15:52:18.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ",0,,"saturn","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-11T07:03:05.000Z","2011-10-15T15:52:18.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ",0,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Good points. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-07T16:12:04.000Z","2011-10-15T15:52:18.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ",0,,"Grognor","JoshuaZ","can't argue with that",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-07T02:08:01.000Z","2011-10-15T15:52:18.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ",5,,"Grognor","JoshuaZ","even so, there only needs to be one.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-06T21:23:54.000Z","2011-10-15T15:52:18.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ",3,,"gwern","JoshuaZ","oldage longevity has grown very slowly: http://lesswrong.com/lw/7jh/living_forever_is_hard_part_2_adult_longevity/ such a person would *already* be like 115 or something",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-17T15:31:51.000Z","2011-10-15T15:52:18.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ",35,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Look at the statistics some more. Way too confident. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-15T19:47:51.000Z","2011-10-15T15:52:18.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ",55,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-15T15:52:18.000Z","2011-10-15T15:52:18.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korean government collapses in the next 5 years.",5,,"sweeneyrod","sweeneyrod",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-16T12:23:32.000Z","2016-01-16T12:23:32.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korean government collapses in the next 5 years.",4,,"splorridge","sweeneyrod",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-16T14:44:51.000Z","2016-01-16T12:23:32.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korean government collapses in the next 5 years.",5,,"Medea","sweeneyrod",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-18T09:20:59.000Z","2016-01-16T12:23:32.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korean government collapses in the next 5 years.",1,,"NickN","sweeneyrod",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T04:52:48.648Z","2016-01-16T12:23:32.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korean government collapses in the next 5 years.",8,,"JoshuaZ","sweeneyrod",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-16T13:56:06.000Z","2016-01-16T12:23:32.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korean government collapses in the next 5 years.",7,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","sweeneyrod",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-17T08:28:44.000Z","2016-01-16T12:23:32.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korean government collapses in the next 5 years.",10,,"lalaithion","sweeneyrod",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-21T05:40:02.000Z","2016-01-16T12:23:32.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korean government collapses in the next 5 years.",11,,"themusicgod1","sweeneyrod","I'm assuming that if Kim Jong-un dies/is replaced that this is considered a continuity of existing government (ie he doesn't have to last 5 years).",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-06T22:00:51.000Z","2016-01-16T12:23:32.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korean government collapses in the next 5 years.",10,,"RoryS","sweeneyrod",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-06T22:30:24.000Z","2016-01-16T12:23:32.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Consensus will be that Koomey's Law no longer applies in 25 years. ",70,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:25:00.750Z","2011-10-10T21:17:29.000Z","2036-10-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Consensus will be that Koomey's Law no longer applies in 25 years. ",78,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-21T20:54:46.000Z","2011-10-10T21:17:29.000Z","2036-10-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Consensus will be that Koomey's Law no longer applies in 25 years. ",30,,"fergus","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-22T07:10:11.000Z","2011-10-10T21:17:29.000Z","2036-10-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Consensus will be that Koomey's Law no longer applies in 25 years. ",67,,"Sniffnoy","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-11T02:23:07.000Z","2011-10-10T21:17:29.000Z","2036-10-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Consensus will be that Koomey's Law no longer applies in 25 years. ",50,,"Jayson Virissimo","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-11T00:25:19.000Z","2011-10-10T21:17:29.000Z","2036-10-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Consensus will be that Koomey's Law no longer applies in 25 years. ",53,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T04:21:00.000Z","2011-10-10T21:17:29.000Z","2036-10-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Consensus will be that Koomey's Law no longer applies in 25 years. ",40,,"Robert Kosten","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-11T15:39:44.000Z","2011-10-10T21:17:29.000Z","2036-10-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Consensus will be that Koomey's Law no longer applies in 25 years. ",20,,"Anubhav","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-11T08:19:16.000Z","2011-10-10T21:17:29.000Z","2036-10-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Consensus will be that Koomey's Law no longer applies in 25 years. ",75,,"gwern","JoshuaZ","WP: https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Koomey%27s_law",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T21:48:24.000Z","2011-10-10T21:17:29.000Z","2036-10-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Consensus will be that Koomey's Law no longer applies in 25 years. ",85,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T21:17:29.000Z","2011-10-10T21:17:29.000Z","2036-10-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050 most computer hardware will no longer be binary.",10,,"gwern","TheScholar","massive backwards compatibility issues; what else will everything be expressed as, ternary?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-31T15:08:49.000Z","2010-10-31T14:50:12.000Z","2050-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050 most computer hardware will no longer be binary.",5,,"gimpf","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-12-12T18:17:42.000Z","2010-10-31T14:50:12.000Z","2050-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050 most computer hardware will no longer be binary.",8,,"lavalamp","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-10T23:49:57.000Z","2010-10-31T14:50:12.000Z","2050-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050 most computer hardware will no longer be binary.",3,,"JoshuaZ","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T13:58:54.000Z","2010-10-31T14:50:12.000Z","2050-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050 most computer hardware will no longer be binary.",4,,"JoshuaZ","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-09T13:48:36.708Z","2010-10-31T14:50:12.000Z","2050-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050 most computer hardware will no longer be binary.",66,,"TheScholar","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-31T14:50:12.000Z","2010-10-31T14:50:12.000Z","2050-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050 most computer hardware will no longer be binary.",5,,"anonym","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-27T20:28:50.000Z","2010-10-31T14:50:12.000Z","2050-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050 most computer hardware will no longer be binary.",2,,"JoshuaZ","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-24T18:00:12.000Z","2010-10-31T14:50:12.000Z","2050-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050 most computer hardware will no longer be binary.",50,,"Anubhav","TheScholar","How do we judge ""most""? Pumping a human full of blood-cell sized computers will skew the balance somewhat.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-12T14:13:08.000Z","2010-10-31T14:50:12.000Z","2050-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050 most computer hardware will no longer be binary.",76,,"themusicgod1","TheScholar","we are having a hard enough time deciding whether handheld robots are computers.  we'll never accept the blood-cell sized computers in our blood as computers by the time this claim is ready",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T02:35:32.000Z","2010-10-31T14:50:12.000Z","2050-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050 most computer hardware will no longer be binary.",20,,"pranomostro","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:34:38.118Z","2010-10-31T14:50:12.000Z","2050-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Ivanka Trump will be President-elect before 2021",0,,"Cato","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-06T05:34:57.916Z","2016-11-28T17:30:34.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Ivanka Trump will be President-elect before 2021",1,,"bobpage","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-31T19:33:29.000Z","2016-11-28T17:30:34.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Ivanka Trump will be President-elect before 2021",1,,"RainbowSpacedancer","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-02T02:23:48.000Z","2016-11-28T17:30:34.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Ivanka Trump will be President-elect before 2021",24,,"themusicgod1","bobpage","i don't think this is very likely, but hard to say how unlikely.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-30T21:01:27.000Z","2016-11-28T17:30:34.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Ivanka Trump will be President-elect before 2021",5,,"two2thehead","bobpage","Interesting prediction. Not happening imo. Four percent hedge upwards from one percent.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-28T17:36:41.000Z","2016-11-28T17:30:34.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Ivanka Trump will be President-elect before 2021",12,,"bobpage","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-28T17:30:34.000Z","2016-11-28T17:30:34.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Ivanka Trump will be President-elect before 2021",0,,"Baeboo","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-14T07:04:31.000Z","2016-11-28T17:30:34.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Ivanka Trump will be President-elect before 2021",1,,"playablecharacter","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-02T21:22:50.000Z","2016-11-28T17:30:34.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Ivanka Trump will be President-elect before 2021",0,,"krishnakulkarni","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-29T01:09:30.000Z","2016-11-28T17:30:34.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Ivanka Trump will be President-elect before 2021",0,,"NickN","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-17T00:54:42.547Z","2016-11-28T17:30:34.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Trump survives his presidency",95,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Osuniev",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-08T11:08:00.696Z","2016-11-21T00:50:45.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump survives his presidency",97,,"playablecharacter","Osuniev",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-02T21:24:51.000Z","2016-11-21T00:50:45.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump survives his presidency",95,,"RainbowSpacedancer","Osuniev",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-04T00:37:59.000Z","2016-11-21T00:50:45.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump survives his presidency",98,,"two2thehead","Osuniev","I am taking this to mean that he is alive at the known on date.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-29T17:52:29.000Z","2016-11-21T00:50:45.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump survives his presidency",98,,"splorridge","Osuniev",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-24T21:19:10.000Z","2016-11-21T00:50:45.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump survives his presidency",95,,"Baeboo","Osuniev",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-08T17:33:14.898Z","2016-11-21T00:50:45.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump survives his presidency",85,,"Bruno Parga","Osuniev","His (first) term ends on 2021-01-20, the end date of the prediction should be updated to reflect that.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-29T07:27:27.000Z","2016-11-21T00:50:45.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump survives his presidency",73,,"themusicgod1","Osuniev",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-21T04:02:26.000Z","2016-11-21T00:50:45.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump survives his presidency",99,,"Osuniev","Osuniev",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-21T00:50:45.000Z","2016-11-21T00:50:45.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one cartoonist arrested for cartoon of President Trump in US",20,,"PlacidPlatypus","themusicgod1","How broadly do you define ""for""? If a cartoonist who drew Trump gets arrested, does that automatically count? What if it was for something completely unrelated that they probably really did?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-04T14:20:08.000Z","2016-11-17T21:25:38.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one cartoonist arrested for cartoon of President Trump in US",10,,"RainbowSpacedancer","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-02T02:25:57.000Z","2016-11-17T21:25:38.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one cartoonist arrested for cartoon of President Trump in US",30,,"Dapple","themusicgod1","I feel that nearly all the probability of this is concentrated not in the tyranny of the executive, but just some local cop busting someone inappropriately. See: people who have been busted for flag burning lately.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-28T18:21:33.000Z","2016-11-17T21:25:38.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one cartoonist arrested for cartoon of President Trump in US",64,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-17T21:25:38.000Z","2016-11-17T21:25:38.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one cartoonist arrested for cartoon of President Trump in US",2,,"EloiseRosen","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-26T02:07:52.000Z","2016-11-17T21:25:38.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one cartoonist arrested for cartoon of President Trump in US",25,,"pkfalu92","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-19T18:22:02.000Z","2016-11-17T21:25:38.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one cartoonist arrested for cartoon of President Trump in US",6,,"leo_grint","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-18T12:34:44.000Z","2016-11-17T21:25:38.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one cartoonist arrested for cartoon of President Trump in US",20,,"splorridge","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-18T10:01:39.000Z","2016-11-17T21:25:38.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one cartoonist arrested for cartoon of President Trump in US",0,,"jamesrom","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-30T11:11:56.139Z","2016-11-17T21:25:38.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US Muslim population increases throughout Trump’s presidency.",80,,"RainbowSpacedancer","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-04T00:40:14.000Z","2016-11-17T14:41:16.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"US Muslim population increases throughout Trump’s presidency.",92,,"Temeraire","splorridge","Immigration + fertility + negligible apostasy. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-30T01:32:26.000Z","2016-11-17T14:41:16.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"US Muslim population increases throughout Trump’s presidency.",90,,"Jayson Virissimo","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-25T02:50:02.000Z","2016-11-17T14:41:16.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"US Muslim population increases throughout Trump’s presidency.",55,,"pkfalu92","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-19T18:13:08.000Z","2016-11-17T14:41:16.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"US Muslim population increases throughout Trump’s presidency.",24,,"themusicgod1","splorridge","actually...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-17T18:36:48.000Z","2016-11-17T14:41:16.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"US Muslim population increases throughout Trump’s presidency.",85,,"splorridge","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-17T14:41:16.000Z","2016-11-17T14:41:16.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"US Muslim population increases throughout Trump’s presidency.",96,,"playablecharacter","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-02T21:26:10.000Z","2016-11-17T14:41:16.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"US Muslim population increases throughout Trump’s presidency.",55,,"EloiseRosen","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-26T01:51:18.000Z","2016-11-17T14:41:16.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"US Muslim population increases throughout Trump’s presidency.",75,,"trishume","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-18T20:57:16.000Z","2016-11-17T14:41:16.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"US Muslim population increases throughout Trump’s presidency.",49,,"themusicgod1","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-17T18:29:44.000Z","2016-11-17T14:41:16.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2055, driving a non-self-driving car on at least one US federal highway will be illegal.  ",65,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-13T23:21:41.000Z","2015-05-13T23:21:41.000Z","2055-01-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2055, driving a non-self-driving car on at least one US federal highway will be illegal.  ",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","JoshuaZ","I would be surprised if it takes as long as 2055. Insurance companies will refuse to insure manned drivers, so I would expect it earlier. 2055 is certain though.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-17T09:47:21.000Z","2015-05-13T23:21:41.000Z","2055-01-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2055, driving a non-self-driving car on at least one US federal highway will be illegal.  ",15,,"jasticE","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-24T12:37:26.000Z","2015-05-13T23:21:41.000Z","2055-01-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2055, driving a non-self-driving car on at least one US federal highway will be illegal.  ",40,,"elecnix","JoshuaZ","More likely on state highways.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-28T17:46:40.000Z","2015-05-13T23:21:41.000Z","2055-01-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2055, driving a non-self-driving car on at least one US federal highway will be illegal.  ",45,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T23:49:07.000Z","2015-05-13T23:21:41.000Z","2055-01-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2055, driving a non-self-driving car on at least one US federal highway will be illegal.  ",15,,"jesselevine","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-14T01:56:58.000Z","2015-05-13T23:21:41.000Z","2055-01-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2055, driving a non-self-driving car on at least one US federal highway will be illegal.  ",10,,"Unknowns","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-14T15:44:12.000Z","2015-05-13T23:21:41.000Z","2055-01-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2055, driving a non-self-driving car on at least one US federal highway will be illegal.  ",5,,"btrettel","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-14T21:56:01.000Z","2015-05-13T23:21:41.000Z","2055-01-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2055, driving a non-self-driving car on at least one US federal highway will be illegal.  ",20,,"jesselevine","JoshuaZ","I'm not sure about anchoring bias here. As of today, 05/15/15, self-driving cars are appearing on the roads in California. Legislation will likely have gone through multiple rounds of revision by 2055 and technological advances ++",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-16T05:22:55.000Z","2015-05-13T23:21:41.000Z","2055-01-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2055, driving a non-self-driving car on at least one US federal highway will be illegal.  ",45,,"EloiseRosen","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-20T21:54:01.000Z","2015-05-13T23:21:41.000Z","2055-01-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Renminbi will eclipse the US dollar as Reserve Currency in 2022. Central banks will hold their reserves in renminbi instead of the USD as they currently do. The USD will be No2 instead of No1. 

The IMF will be the source of data.",0,,"Bruno Parga","Raahul_Kumar","https://www.centralbanking.com/central-banks/economics/4737916/renminbi-internationalisation-the-new-dollar

2% of all reserves.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T12:30:28.543Z","2015-05-17T10:14:37.000Z","2022-05-28T08:00:00.000Z"
"The Renminbi will eclipse the US dollar as Reserve Currency in 2022. Central banks will hold their reserves in renminbi instead of the USD as they currently do. The USD will be No2 instead of No1. 

The IMF will be the source of data.",25,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-17T18:03:59.000Z","2015-05-17T10:14:37.000Z","2022-05-28T08:00:00.000Z"
"The Renminbi will eclipse the US dollar as Reserve Currency in 2022. Central banks will hold their reserves in renminbi instead of the USD as they currently do. The USD will be No2 instead of No1. 

The IMF will be the source of data.",0,,"jesselevine","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-20T15:24:03.000Z","2015-05-17T10:14:37.000Z","2022-05-28T08:00:00.000Z"
"The Renminbi will eclipse the US dollar as Reserve Currency in 2022. Central banks will hold their reserves in renminbi instead of the USD as they currently do. The USD will be No2 instead of No1. 

The IMF will be the source of data.",10,,"doctorpat","Raahul_Kumar","Date man, you need to put a date on the prediction. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-21T11:35:57.000Z","2015-05-17T10:14:37.000Z","2022-05-28T08:00:00.000Z"
"The Renminbi will eclipse the US dollar as Reserve Currency in 2022. Central banks will hold their reserves in renminbi instead of the USD as they currently do. The USD will be No2 instead of No1. 

The IMF will be the source of data.",1,,"ChristianKl","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-28T18:00:24.000Z","2015-05-17T10:14:37.000Z","2022-05-28T08:00:00.000Z"
"The Renminbi will eclipse the US dollar as Reserve Currency in 2022. Central banks will hold their reserves in renminbi instead of the USD as they currently do. The USD will be No2 instead of No1. 

The IMF will be the source of data.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-17T10:14:37.000Z","2015-05-17T10:14:37.000Z","2022-05-28T08:00:00.000Z"
"The Renminbi will eclipse the US dollar as Reserve Currency in 2022. Central banks will hold their reserves in renminbi instead of the USD as they currently do. The USD will be No2 instead of No1. 

The IMF will be the source of data.",10,,"FarOutFuture1988","Raahul_Kumar","unlikely.... since the renminbi is still undervalued by the Chinese government it wont be a the world reserve currency for a very long time if ever. More likely a digital currency will take the place of the dollar in the future than any other.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-21T11:25:41.000Z","2015-05-17T10:14:37.000Z","2022-05-28T08:00:00.000Z"
"The Renminbi will eclipse the US dollar as Reserve Currency in 2022. Central banks will hold their reserves in renminbi instead of the USD as they currently do. The USD will be No2 instead of No1. 

The IMF will be the source of data.",23,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Raahul_Kumar","I seriously doubt this will happen in just 7 years. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-30T07:43:38.000Z","2015-05-17T10:14:37.000Z","2022-05-28T08:00:00.000Z"
"The Renminbi will eclipse the US dollar as Reserve Currency in 2022. Central banks will hold their reserves in renminbi instead of the USD as they currently do. The USD will be No2 instead of No1. 

The IMF will be the source of data.",11,,"themusicgod1","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-14T06:06:56.000Z","2015-05-17T10:14:37.000Z","2022-05-28T08:00:00.000Z"
"The Renminbi will eclipse the US dollar as Reserve Currency in 2022. Central banks will hold their reserves in renminbi instead of the USD as they currently do. The USD will be No2 instead of No1. 

The IMF will be the source of data.",10,,"Bruno Parga","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-17T15:52:05.000Z","2015-05-17T10:14:37.000Z","2022-05-28T08:00:00.000Z"
"The Renminbi will eclipse the US dollar as Reserve Currency in 2022. Central banks will hold their reserves in renminbi instead of the USD as they currently do. The USD will be No2 instead of No1. 

The IMF will be the source of data.",27,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-26T04:44:46.000Z","2015-05-17T10:14:37.000Z","2022-05-28T08:00:00.000Z"
"America allies with North Korea, declares war on South Korea",0,,"Cato","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-06T05:31:02.354Z","2016-11-09T06:53:40.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"America allies with North Korea, declares war on South Korea",0,,"mortehu","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-12T00:51:40.000Z","2016-11-09T06:53:40.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"America allies with North Korea, declares war on South Korea",1,,"jesseh","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-10T11:24:00.000Z","2016-11-09T06:53:40.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"America allies with North Korea, declares war on South Korea",0,,"sflicht","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-09T21:11:29.000Z","2016-11-09T06:53:40.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"America allies with North Korea, declares war on South Korea",3,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-09T06:53:40.000Z","2016-11-09T06:53:40.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"America allies with North Korea, declares war on South Korea",0,,"Baeboo","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-20T02:11:39.217Z","2016-11-09T06:53:40.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"America allies with North Korea, declares war on South Korea",1,,"capisce","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-09T15:12:17.000Z","2016-11-09T06:53:40.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"America allies with North Korea, declares war on South Korea",1,,"two2thehead","themusicgod1","Less than one percent",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-09T09:13:49.000Z","2016-11-09T06:53:40.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"America allies with North Korea, declares war on South Korea",0,,"pkfalu92","themusicgod1","What.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-09T07:20:14.000Z","2016-11-09T06:53:40.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Volume of physical books sold in 2020 to be greater than that in 2015",10,,"Raahul_Kumar","InquilineKea","I expect E-books to dominate the market, and the only people who read paper are a dying  market.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-21T05:15:57.000Z","2015-07-17T22:34:39.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Volume of physical books sold in 2020 to be greater than that in 2015",45,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-10T00:31:30.000Z","2015-07-17T22:34:39.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Volume of physical books sold in 2020 to be greater than that in 2015",25,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea","(I assume you're using volume to refer to quantity)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-23T03:04:43.000Z","2015-07-17T22:34:39.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Volume of physical books sold in 2020 to be greater than that in 2015",30,,"espore","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-02T20:59:09.000Z","2015-07-17T22:34:39.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Volume of physical books sold in 2020 to be greater than that in 2015",15,,"timujin","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-18T08:46:26.000Z","2015-07-17T22:34:39.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Volume of physical books sold in 2020 to be greater than that in 2015",30,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-17T22:34:39.000Z","2015-07-17T22:34:39.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Volume of physical books sold in 2020 to be greater than that in 2015",5,,"jesselevine","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-21T00:23:07.000Z","2015-07-17T22:34:39.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Volume of physical books sold in 2020 to be greater than that in 2015",25,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-18T12:53:33.000Z","2015-07-17T22:34:39.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Volume of physical books sold in 2020 to be greater than that in 2015",60,,"NickN","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-17T19:39:58.909Z","2015-07-17T22:34:39.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chess will be a solved game in 50 years",20,,"amadeu","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-07T20:01:41.394Z","2011-10-07T15:50:22.000Z","2061-10-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chess will be a solved game in 50 years",50,,"Baeboo","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T18:27:41.361Z","2011-10-07T15:50:22.000Z","2061-10-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chess will be a solved game in 50 years",54,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T14:20:40.839Z","2011-10-07T15:50:22.000Z","2061-10-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chess will be a solved game in 50 years",70,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:27:24.712Z","2011-10-07T15:50:22.000Z","2061-10-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chess will be a solved game in 50 years",52,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T22:28:57.000Z","2011-10-07T15:50:22.000Z","2061-10-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chess will be a solved game in 50 years",53,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T04:18:27.000Z","2011-10-07T15:50:22.000Z","2061-10-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chess will be a solved game in 50 years",10,,"lavalamp","JoshuaZ","Even that sense of ""solved"" seems quite unlikely.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-10T16:47:42.000Z","2011-10-07T15:50:22.000Z","2061-10-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chess will be a solved game in 50 years",20,,"gwern","JoshuaZ","solved as the entire game tree solved, in the same strong sense as checkers or tic-tac-toe? even with 50 years of computing power that doesn't seem very feasible...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-12T14:28:05.000Z","2011-10-07T15:50:22.000Z","2061-10-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chess will be a solved game in 50 years",30,,"Robert Kosten","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-09T11:00:01.000Z","2011-10-07T15:50:22.000Z","2061-10-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chess will be a solved game in 50 years",23,,"Sniffnoy","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-08T23:23:59.000Z","2011-10-07T15:50:22.000Z","2061-10-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chess will be a solved game in 50 years",20,,"Sniffnoy","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-08T23:07:51.000Z","2011-10-07T15:50:22.000Z","2061-10-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chess will be a solved game in 50 years",60,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T15:50:22.000Z","2011-10-07T15:50:22.000Z","2061-10-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"Earth will still exist in current form, most humans non-uploaded, and disease & old age & work & natural birth still existing --MixedNuts",46,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:20:42.000Z","2012-09-27T19:45:18.000Z","2112-09-27T19:45:18.000Z"
"Earth will still exist in current form, most humans non-uploaded, and disease & old age & work & natural birth still existing --MixedNuts",6,,"bobpage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-27T19:51:38.000Z","2012-09-27T19:45:18.000Z","2112-09-27T19:45:18.000Z"
"Earth will still exist in current form, most humans non-uploaded, and disease & old age & work & natural birth still existing --MixedNuts",35,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-27T19:45:18.000Z","2012-09-27T19:45:18.000Z","2112-09-27T19:45:18.000Z"
"Earth will still exist in current form, most humans non-uploaded, and disease & old age & work & natural birth still existing --MixedNuts",23,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T02:04:34.028Z","2012-09-27T19:45:18.000Z","2112-09-27T19:45:18.000Z"
"Earth will still exist in current form, most humans non-uploaded, and disease & old age & work & natural birth still existing --MixedNuts",25,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:47:11.146Z","2012-09-27T19:45:18.000Z","2112-09-27T19:45:18.000Z"
"Earth will still exist in current form, most humans non-uploaded, and disease & old age & work & natural birth still existing --MixedNuts",30,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:47:04.373Z","2012-09-27T19:45:18.000Z","2112-09-27T19:45:18.000Z"
"Earth will still exist in current form, most humans non-uploaded, and disease & old age & work & natural birth still existing --MixedNuts",30,,"Gurkenglas","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-29T03:33:43.000Z","2012-09-27T19:45:18.000Z","2112-09-27T19:45:18.000Z"
"Earth will still exist in current form, most humans non-uploaded, and disease & old age & work & natural birth still existing --MixedNuts",40,,"chemotaxis101","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-13T17:58:39.000Z","2012-09-27T19:45:18.000Z","2112-09-27T19:45:18.000Z"
"Earth will still exist in current form, most humans non-uploaded, and disease & old age & work & natural birth still existing --MixedNuts",65,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-27T23:09:09.000Z","2012-09-27T19:45:18.000Z","2112-09-27T19:45:18.000Z"
"Earth will still exist in current form, most humans non-uploaded, and disease & old age & work & natural birth still existing --MixedNuts",80,,"Athrelon","gwern","Not higher because ""uploaded humans"" is ambiguous, and having had one, it's trivial to have >7B.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-27T19:53:06.000Z","2012-09-27T19:45:18.000Z","2112-09-27T19:45:18.000Z"
"Nicotine will be found to help fight coronavirus",3,,"evand","evand",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-26T18:15:28.040Z","2020-04-26T18:15:28.028Z","2021-04-26T18:15:28.000Z"
"Nicotine will be found to help fight coronavirus",10,,"batemancapital","evand",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-27T00:28:52.697Z","2020-04-26T18:15:28.028Z","2021-04-26T18:15:28.000Z"
"Nicotine will be found to help fight coronavirus",1,,"Tumblewood","evand",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-27T05:42:26.859Z","2020-04-26T18:15:28.028Z","2021-04-26T18:15:28.000Z"
"Nicotine will be found to help fight coronavirus",1,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","evand",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-30T11:09:54.815Z","2020-04-26T18:15:28.028Z","2021-04-26T18:15:28.000Z"
"Nicotine will be found to help fight coronavirus",3,,"qznc","evand",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T10:43:08.480Z","2020-04-26T18:15:28.028Z","2021-04-26T18:15:28.000Z"
"Nicotine will be found to help fight coronavirus",0,,"credunkist","evand",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-03T20:39:12.590Z","2020-04-26T18:15:28.028Z","2021-04-26T18:15:28.000Z"
"Nicotine will be found to help fight coronavirus",1,,"wizzwizz4","evand","I can't even think of a mechanism. In fact, I reckon it makes things worse.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-08T17:17:54.421Z","2020-04-26T18:15:28.028Z","2021-04-26T18:15:28.000Z"
"Nicotine will be found to help fight coronavirus",2,,"wizzwizz4","evand","Thought of a mechanism by which it could help. Still think it makes things worse.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-09T12:55:52.926Z","2020-04-26T18:15:28.028Z","2021-04-26T18:15:28.000Z"
"Nicotine will be found to help fight coronavirus",5,,"Medea","evand",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-10T11:58:21.367Z","2020-04-26T18:15:28.028Z","2021-04-26T18:15:28.000Z"
"Nicotine will be found to help fight coronavirus",3,,"NickN","evand","It seems smokers don't get infected as easily. But I do not think it will be followed up, because smoking = bad. So, nicotine might or might not help fight the virus, but my prediction is that it certainly will not be *found* to do so.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T02:47:51.891Z","2020-04-26T18:15:28.028Z","2021-04-26T18:15:28.000Z"
"At least 2 billion biological humans will be alive on Earth at the beginning of 2030.",96,,"JoshuaZ","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-28T17:44:22.000Z","2012-09-04T02:26:53.000Z","2030-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"At least 2 billion biological humans will be alive on Earth at the beginning of 2030.",79,,"themusicgod1","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-28T16:59:22.000Z","2012-09-04T02:26:53.000Z","2030-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"At least 2 billion biological humans will be alive on Earth at the beginning of 2030.",99,,"Ken","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-12T16:39:14.000Z","2012-09-04T02:26:53.000Z","2030-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"At least 2 billion biological humans will be alive on Earth at the beginning of 2030.",95,,"Emanuel Rylke","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-04T07:36:30.000Z","2012-09-04T02:26:53.000Z","2030-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"At least 2 billion biological humans will be alive on Earth at the beginning of 2030.",95,,"JoshuaZ","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-04T03:17:06.000Z","2012-09-04T02:26:53.000Z","2030-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"At least 2 billion biological humans will be alive on Earth at the beginning of 2030.",90,,"lukeprog","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-04T02:26:53.000Z","2012-09-04T02:26:53.000Z","2030-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"At least 2 billion biological humans will be alive on Earth at the beginning of 2030.",99,,"two2thehead","lukeprog","Probably",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-29T10:35:08.000Z","2012-09-04T02:26:53.000Z","2030-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"At least 2 billion biological humans will be alive on Earth at the beginning of 2030.",98,,"sdr","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-13T03:48:47.000Z","2012-09-04T02:26:53.000Z","2030-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"At least 2 billion biological humans will be alive on Earth at the beginning of 2030.",98,,"Nic_Smith","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-05T02:12:08.000Z","2012-09-04T02:26:53.000Z","2030-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"At least 2 billion biological humans will be alive on Earth at the beginning of 2030.",95,,"Jayson Virissimo","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-04T02:49:56.000Z","2012-09-04T02:26:53.000Z","2030-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"Robin Hanson & Katja Grace will be in a publicly-known romantic relationship at some point in the next 10 years",10,,"halfwit","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-09T18:29:03.000Z","2012-09-02T20:24:21.000Z","2022-09-02T20:24:21.000Z"
"Robin Hanson & Katja Grace will be in a publicly-known romantic relationship at some point in the next 10 years",50,,"Athrelon","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-27T23:44:05.000Z","2012-09-02T20:24:21.000Z","2022-09-02T20:24:21.000Z"
"Robin Hanson & Katja Grace will be in a publicly-known romantic relationship at some point in the next 10 years",30,,"beo_shaffer","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-03T04:22:04.000Z","2012-09-02T20:24:21.000Z","2022-09-02T20:24:21.000Z"
"Robin Hanson & Katja Grace will be in a publicly-known romantic relationship at some point in the next 10 years",10,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern","IDK why, but this feels more wrong than publicly assigning probability estimates of particular people commiting suicide. Oh well...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-03T03:21:28.000Z","2012-09-02T20:24:21.000Z","2022-09-02T20:24:21.000Z"
"Robin Hanson & Katja Grace will be in a publicly-known romantic relationship at some point in the next 10 years",25,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-03T00:35:48.000Z","2012-09-02T20:24:21.000Z","2022-09-02T20:24:21.000Z"
"Robin Hanson & Katja Grace will be in a publicly-known romantic relationship at some point in the next 10 years",40,,"Konkvistador","gwern","There is clearly chemistry between them as can be heard in the occasional banter on their podcasts. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-02T20:42:33.000Z","2012-09-02T20:24:21.000Z","2022-09-02T20:24:21.000Z"
"Robin Hanson & Katja Grace will be in a publicly-known romantic relationship at some point in the next 10 years",30,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-02T20:24:21.000Z","2012-09-02T20:24:21.000Z","2022-09-02T20:24:21.000Z"
"Robin Hanson & Katja Grace will be in a publicly-known romantic relationship at some point in the next 10 years",5,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-04T02:25:40.442Z","2012-09-02T20:24:21.000Z","2022-09-02T20:24:21.000Z"
"Robin Hanson & Katja Grace will be in a publicly-known romantic relationship at some point in the next 10 years",5,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-10T20:46:47.475Z","2012-09-02T20:24:21.000Z","2022-09-02T20:24:21.000Z"
"Robin Hanson & Katja Grace will be in a publicly-known romantic relationship at some point in the next 10 years",35,,"gwern","gwern","updating on location info",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-16T18:49:54.000Z","2012-09-02T20:24:21.000Z","2022-09-02T20:24:21.000Z"
"Humans on Mars by August 30, 2045",60,,"Medea","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T14:36:52.827Z","2020-08-30T03:00:17.366Z","2045-08-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humans on Mars by August 30, 2045",20,,"srconstantin","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-27T21:30:25.371Z","2020-08-30T03:00:17.366Z","2045-08-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humans on Mars by August 30, 2045",68,,"Baeboo","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-21T20:58:21.623Z","2020-08-30T03:00:17.366Z","2045-08-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humans on Mars by August 30, 2045",85,,"FrancinePefko","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-21T16:09:38.973Z","2020-08-30T03:00:17.366Z","2045-08-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humans on Mars by August 30, 2045",67,,"Bruno Parga","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T12:53:12.163Z","2020-08-30T03:00:17.366Z","2045-08-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humans on Mars by August 30, 2045",30,,"chemotaxis101","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-07T19:01:58.838Z","2020-08-30T03:00:17.366Z","2045-08-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humans on Mars by August 30, 2045",1,,"NickN","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-30T17:57:49.948Z","2020-08-30T03:00:17.366Z","2045-08-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humans on Mars by August 30, 2045",55,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-30T03:00:17.374Z","2020-08-30T03:00:17.366Z","2045-08-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humans on Mars by August 30, 2045",20,,"product","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-01T12:10:34.431Z","2020-08-30T03:00:17.366Z","2045-08-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2022, some roads will be self-driving-only. --Alyssa Vance",75,,"lukeprog","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-24T02:14:58.000Z","2012-11-24T02:14:58.000Z","2023-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"By 2022, some roads will be self-driving-only. --Alyssa Vance",5,,"jpet","lukeprog","This seems to require a conjunction of events: self-driving cars are popular enough to warrant their own roads, yet inflexible enough to need them.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-24T05:29:00.000Z","2012-11-24T02:14:58.000Z","2023-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"By 2022, some roads will be self-driving-only. --Alyssa Vance",5,,"kilobug","lukeprog","2022 is too close for that, at least I assume you're speaking of public roads, not private circuits.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-25T09:57:52.000Z","2012-11-24T02:14:58.000Z","2023-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"By 2022, some roads will be self-driving-only. --Alyssa Vance",90,,"Qiaochu","lukeprog","Agree with luke. ""Some,"" interpreted literally, would include something like one specific road on one Google campus.  ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-26T09:37:23.000Z","2012-11-24T02:14:58.000Z","2023-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"By 2022, some roads will be self-driving-only. --Alyssa Vance",80,,"Tuxedage","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-03T19:41:09.000Z","2012-11-24T02:14:58.000Z","2023-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"By 2022, some roads will be self-driving-only. --Alyssa Vance",95,,"Malgidus","lukeprog","Agree with Qiaochu",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-27T20:27:55.000Z","2012-11-24T02:14:58.000Z","2023-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"By 2022, some roads will be self-driving-only. --Alyssa Vance",80,,"Flipnash","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-17T21:46:25.000Z","2012-11-24T02:14:58.000Z","2023-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"By 2022, some roads will be self-driving-only. --Alyssa Vance",71,,"themusicgod1","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T14:33:43.000Z","2012-11-24T02:14:58.000Z","2023-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"By 2022, some roads will be self-driving-only. --Alyssa Vance",10,,"pranomostro","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-10T16:05:11.000Z","2012-11-24T02:14:58.000Z","2023-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"North and South Korea will reunify by 2025",27,,"themusicgod1","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T06:13:56.000Z","2012-08-15T01:51:25.000Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"North and South Korea will reunify by 2025",20,,"gwern","RandomThinker","people keep hoping, but even south korea doesn't seriously want to reunify... they saw what happened to germany",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-19T20:01:16.000Z","2012-08-15T01:51:25.000Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"North and South Korea will reunify by 2025",25,,"Jayson Virissimo","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-16T20:14:21.000Z","2012-08-15T01:51:25.000Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"North and South Korea will reunify by 2025",30,,"Emanuel Rylke","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-15T09:05:23.000Z","2012-08-15T01:51:25.000Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"North and South Korea will reunify by 2025",9,,"Baeboo","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T00:18:24.766Z","2012-08-15T01:51:25.000Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"North and South Korea will reunify by 2025",5,,"pranomostro","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-10T20:53:20.095Z","2012-08-15T01:51:25.000Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"North and South Korea will reunify by 2025",20,,"RobertLumley","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-16T15:39:41.000Z","2012-08-15T01:51:25.000Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"North and South Korea will reunify by 2025",25,,"JoshuaZ","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-15T02:03:14.000Z","2012-08-15T01:51:25.000Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"North and South Korea will reunify by 2025",40,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-15T01:51:25.000Z","2012-08-15T01:51:25.000Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden runs for president in 2024",55,,"fandangos","PlacidPlatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T16:34:28.650Z","2020-11-13T04:44:57.113Z","2024-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden runs for president in 2024",24,,"JoshuaZ","PlacidPlatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-16T00:45:45.278Z","2020-11-13T04:44:57.113Z","2024-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden runs for president in 2024",50,,"Liging","PlacidPlatypus","This is a very tough one",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-15T18:22:34.854Z","2020-11-13T04:44:57.113Z","2024-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden runs for president in 2024",10,,"true","PlacidPlatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T10:47:00.570Z","2020-11-13T04:44:57.113Z","2024-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden runs for president in 2024",1,,"bobpage","PlacidPlatypus","I just don't think this is happening. 82 is very old and I expect Biden to already not be President, or that the Democratic Party will have someone better to run",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-16T00:19:15.723Z","2020-11-13T04:44:57.113Z","2024-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden runs for president in 2024",40,,"Baeboo","PlacidPlatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T19:18:11.082Z","2020-11-13T04:44:57.113Z","2024-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden runs for president in 2024",15,,"seanbas","PlacidPlatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-14T14:53:15.576Z","2020-11-13T04:44:57.113Z","2024-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden runs for president in 2024",30,,"sty.silver","PlacidPlatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T19:38:56.145Z","2020-11-13T04:44:57.113Z","2024-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden runs for president in 2024",55,,"PlacidPlatypus","PlacidPlatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T04:44:57.118Z","2020-11-13T04:44:57.113Z","2024-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will not live to see the apocalypse.",99,,"kallman","Sevis","Yeah, ""End of the world"" is a bit rubbish. A less convienient world with less effecient energy sources, maybe.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-06-22T06:32:32.000Z","2011-06-01T01:06:26.000Z","2111-06-01T02:06:26.000Z"
"I will not live to see the apocalypse.",45,,"faul_sname","Sevis","Well, if we include man-made apocalypses. Apocalypsen.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-01T08:44:55.000Z","2011-06-01T01:06:26.000Z","2111-06-01T02:06:26.000Z"
"I will not live to see the apocalypse.",50,,"army1987","Sevis","10% nuclear war, 35% sea level rising due to AGW, 5% something else",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-03T23:53:35.000Z","2011-06-01T01:06:26.000Z","2111-06-01T02:06:26.000Z"
"I will not live to see the apocalypse.",99,,"gwern","Sevis","inasmuch as I expect no religious apocalypse at all (as opposed to ordinary existential risks), 99% is probably low",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-06-01T16:46:43.000Z","2011-06-01T01:06:26.000Z","2111-06-01T02:06:26.000Z"
"I will not live to see the apocalypse.",65,,"Snowshi","Sevis","An apocalypse could definitely happen, it just may not happen in your life time.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-20T20:16:37.000Z","2011-06-01T01:06:26.000Z","2111-06-01T02:06:26.000Z"
"I will not live to see the apocalypse.",50,,"themusicgod1","Sevis",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-08T20:50:29.000Z","2011-06-01T01:06:26.000Z","2111-06-01T02:06:26.000Z"
"I will not live to see the apocalypse.",95,,"pranomostro","Sevis","Same interpretation as @gwern.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:13:52.056Z","2011-06-01T01:06:26.000Z","2111-06-01T02:06:26.000Z"
"I will not live to see the apocalypse.",99,,"pranomostro","Sevis",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:14:02.708Z","2011-06-01T01:06:26.000Z","2111-06-01T02:06:26.000Z"
"I will not live to see the apocalypse.",95,,"Sevis","Sevis",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-06-01T01:06:27.000Z","2011-06-01T01:06:26.000Z","2111-06-01T02:06:26.000Z"
"By this time in 2026, there will be a consensus among neuroscientists (>50%) that quantum mechanics plays a non-trivial role in understanding consciousness. ",1,,"Baeboo","RoryS",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-14T07:14:10.000Z","2016-07-18T16:06:26.000Z","2026-07-18T11:00:00.000Z"
"By this time in 2026, there will be a consensus among neuroscientists (>50%) that quantum mechanics plays a non-trivial role in understanding consciousness. ",3,,"JoshuaZ","RoryS",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-15T17:06:25.000Z","2016-07-18T16:06:26.000Z","2026-07-18T11:00:00.000Z"
"By this time in 2026, there will be a consensus among neuroscientists (>50%) that quantum mechanics plays a non-trivial role in understanding consciousness. ",8,,"RoryS","RoryS",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-18T16:06:26.000Z","2016-07-18T16:06:26.000Z","2026-07-18T11:00:00.000Z"
"By this time in 2026, there will be a consensus among neuroscientists (>50%) that quantum mechanics plays a non-trivial role in understanding consciousness. ",5,,"Lucent","RoryS",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-10T03:28:31.000Z","2016-07-18T16:06:26.000Z","2026-07-18T11:00:00.000Z"
"By this time in 2026, there will be a consensus among neuroscientists (>50%) that quantum mechanics plays a non-trivial role in understanding consciousness. ",5,,"themusicgod1","RoryS",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-19T23:15:38.000Z","2016-07-18T16:06:26.000Z","2026-07-18T11:00:00.000Z"
"By this time in 2026, there will be a consensus among neuroscientists (>50%) that quantum mechanics plays a non-trivial role in understanding consciousness. ",5,,"Medea","RoryS",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-21T09:23:46.000Z","2016-07-18T16:06:26.000Z","2026-07-18T11:00:00.000Z"
"By this time in 2026, there will be a consensus among neuroscientists (>50%) that quantum mechanics plays a non-trivial role in understanding consciousness. ",0,,"ejlflop","RoryS",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-23T01:04:09.000Z","2016-07-18T16:06:26.000Z","2026-07-18T11:00:00.000Z"
"By this time in 2026, there will be a consensus among neuroscientists (>50%) that quantum mechanics plays a non-trivial role in understanding consciousness. ",0,,"Expipiplusone","RoryS","Just because it seems I can't put something lower than 0.1%",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-26T15:49:48.000Z","2016-07-18T16:06:26.000Z","2026-07-18T11:00:00.000Z"
"By this time in 2026, there will be a consensus among neuroscientists (>50%) that quantum mechanics plays a non-trivial role in understanding consciousness. ",1,,"Expipiplusone","RoryS","Argh, 1% is the bare minimum above 0. Fine -_-",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-26T15:50:18.000Z","2016-07-18T16:06:26.000Z","2026-07-18T11:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2050 Baidu.com will surpass Google.com and become world's number 1 search engine.” --Yan Bashkin",1,,"Larks","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-29T21:45:43.000Z","2010-08-30T05:20:41.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2050 Baidu.com will surpass Google.com and become world's number 1 search engine.” --Yan Bashkin",5,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-30T05:20:42.000Z","2010-08-30T05:20:41.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2050 Baidu.com will surpass Google.com and become world's number 1 search engine.” --Yan Bashkin",19,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T02:18:20.000Z","2010-08-30T05:20:41.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2050 Baidu.com will surpass Google.com and become world's number 1 search engine.” --Yan Bashkin",30,,"Grognor","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-06T20:16:45.000Z","2010-08-30T05:20:41.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2050 Baidu.com will surpass Google.com and become world's number 1 search engine.” --Yan Bashkin",80,,"Ken","gwern","Seems like this is the default thing that will happen as the size of the Chinese middle class increases. A long timespan on the prediction makes it more likely.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-13T14:45:14.000Z","2010-08-30T05:20:41.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2050 Baidu.com will surpass Google.com and become world's number 1 search engine.” --Yan Bashkin",40,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-10T21:08:20.927Z","2010-08-30T05:20:41.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2050 Baidu.com will surpass Google.com and become world's number 1 search engine.” --Yan Bashkin",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T01:29:07.000Z","2010-08-30T05:20:41.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2050 Baidu.com will surpass Google.com and become world's number 1 search engine.” --Yan Bashkin",50,,"gwern","gwern","was that there on longbets before? ""Baidu will have more users by 2050, or before, at any given moment that Baidu surpasses Google, the bet is over (Baidu will become a winner then).""",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-13T22:24:03.000Z","2010-08-30T05:20:41.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2050 Baidu.com will surpass Google.com and become world's number 1 search engine.” --Yan Bashkin",20,,"JoshuaZ","gwern","As phrased it seems to just need to occur sometime before 2050, not on 2050. Main problem seems to be that Google is not just the US while Baidu is almost completely just China. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-13T18:16:03.000Z","2010-08-30T05:20:41.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2050 Baidu.com will surpass Google.com and become world's number 1 search engine.” --Yan Bashkin",10,,"Bagricula","gwern","Technically, could happen 5 years out and still be valid",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-29T22:00:53.000Z","2010-08-30T05:20:41.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No open source Minecraft client before 2023",25,,"Nic_Smith","Nic_Smith","Oops... typed it in backwards. :(",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-22T12:32:07.000Z","2011-11-22T12:30:34.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No open source Minecraft client before 2023",60,,"shokwave","Nic_Smith","Notch's attitude on open source?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-26T15:15:14.000Z","2011-11-22T12:30:34.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No open source Minecraft client before 2023",20,,"kpreid","Nic_Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-04T23:37:54.000Z","2011-11-22T12:30:34.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No open source Minecraft client before 2023",40,,"Anubhav","Nic_Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-28T03:30:39.000Z","2011-11-22T12:30:34.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No open source Minecraft client before 2023",60,,"themusicgod1","Nic_Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-14T06:00:17.000Z","2011-11-22T12:30:34.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No open source Minecraft client before 2023",66,,"pranomostro","Nic_Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:43:36.410Z","2011-11-22T12:30:34.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No open source Minecraft client before 2023",75,,"Nic_Smith","Nic_Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-22T12:30:34.000Z","2011-11-22T12:30:34.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No open source Minecraft client before 2023",95,,"gwern","Nic_Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-22T16:21:51.000Z","2011-11-22T12:30:34.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No open source Minecraft client before 2023",76,,"Baeboo","Nic_Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T04:32:05.616Z","2011-11-22T12:30:34.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Boy Scouts will admit openly atheist scouts before 2050",95,,"CrystalBall","btrettel","Conditional on the Boy Scouts still existing.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-13T03:31:42.000Z","2015-07-28T14:56:59.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"The Boy Scouts will admit openly atheist scouts before 2050",95,,"olivia","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-04T06:58:21.000Z","2015-07-28T14:56:59.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"The Boy Scouts will admit openly atheist scouts before 2050",80,,"daccount10","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-02T02:43:39.000Z","2015-07-28T14:56:59.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"The Boy Scouts will admit openly atheist scouts before 2050",90,,"noopleon","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-29T07:46:19.000Z","2015-07-28T14:56:59.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"The Boy Scouts will admit openly atheist scouts before 2050",50,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T14:56:59.000Z","2015-07-28T14:56:59.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"The Boy Scouts will admit openly atheist scouts before 2050",80,,"aarongertler","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-01T19:48:23.000Z","2015-07-28T14:56:59.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"The Boy Scouts will admit openly atheist scouts before 2050",80,,"David","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T19:08:42.000Z","2015-07-28T14:56:59.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"The Boy Scouts will admit openly atheist scouts before 2050",65,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T16:29:01.000Z","2015-07-28T14:56:59.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"A COVID vaccine will be widely available in the USA by the end of January 2021 where widely available is defined as given to more than 10,000 people not as part of a clinical trial.",30,,"krazemon","krazemon",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-28T12:57:38.140Z","2020-06-28T12:57:38.135Z","2021-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A COVID vaccine will be widely available in the USA by the end of January 2021 where widely available is defined as given to more than 10,000 people not as part of a clinical trial.",60,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","krazemon","Lotsa people working on different approaches, seems likely something will work by then. Not sure when it would be approved, but seems likely the prez would fast track it even if it's risky. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-29T05:44:21.542Z","2020-06-28T12:57:38.135Z","2021-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A COVID vaccine will be widely available in the USA by the end of January 2021 where widely available is defined as given to more than 10,000 people not as part of a clinical trial.",25,,"chemotaxis101","krazemon",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-08T09:54:27.686Z","2020-06-28T12:57:38.135Z","2021-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A COVID vaccine will be widely available in the USA by the end of January 2021 where widely available is defined as given to more than 10,000 people not as part of a clinical trial.",25,,"wizzwizz4","krazemon","I think people will mess around with the vaccine for political reasons, but I doubt they'd get as many as 10 000 people involved.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-09T15:12:49.567Z","2020-06-28T12:57:38.135Z","2021-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A COVID vaccine will be widely available in the USA by the end of January 2021 where widely available is defined as given to more than 10,000 people not as part of a clinical trial.",3,,"NickN","krazemon",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T06:51:47.681Z","2020-06-28T12:57:38.135Z","2021-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A COVID vaccine will be widely available in the USA by the end of January 2021 where widely available is defined as given to more than 10,000 people not as part of a clinical trial.",20,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","krazemon",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-12T12:08:29.190Z","2020-06-28T12:57:38.135Z","2021-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A COVID vaccine will be widely available in the USA by the end of January 2021 where widely available is defined as given to more than 10,000 people not as part of a clinical trial.",10,,"Deepak","krazemon",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-09T15:34:17.587Z","2020-06-28T12:57:38.135Z","2021-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A COVID vaccine will be widely available in the USA by the end of January 2021 where widely available is defined as given to more than 10,000 people not as part of a clinical trial.",30,,"contra","krazemon","Yes, a vaccine will be available, but it won't be available to the public until much, much later into the year. You have to help the rich and powerful first.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-01T14:08:16.479Z","2020-06-28T12:57:38.135Z","2021-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A COVID vaccine will be widely available in the USA by the end of January 2021 where widely available is defined as given to more than 10,000 people not as part of a clinical trial.",5,,"srconstantin","krazemon","Moderna is the farthest along and they have planned a 1-year follow-up for their phase III trial.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-29T19:54:33.691Z","2020-06-28T12:57:38.135Z","2021-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Arab-Israeli conflict is not over by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",80,,"RandomThinker","Pablo","Much better par for the prediction is it's not over by 2140.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T07:21:48.000Z","2012-10-01T06:51:14.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Arab-Israeli conflict is not over by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",50,,"Pablo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T06:51:14.000Z","2012-10-01T06:51:14.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Arab-Israeli conflict is not over by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",94,,"themusicgod1","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:28:24.000Z","2012-10-01T06:51:14.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Arab-Israeli conflict is not over by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",60,,"gwern","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T19:19:15.000Z","2012-10-01T06:51:14.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Arab-Israeli conflict is not over by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",80,,"telegrafista","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-14T16:12:47.991Z","2012-10-01T06:51:14.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Arab-Israeli conflict is not over by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",63,,"Baeboo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T02:14:41.204Z","2012-10-01T06:51:14.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Arab-Israeli conflict is not over by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",80,,"pranomostro","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:43:55.730Z","2012-10-01T06:51:14.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Arab-Israeli conflict is not over by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",70,,"chemotaxis101","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-13T17:48:08.000Z","2012-10-01T06:51:14.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Mirror matter will be shown to make up at least 1% of dark matter.",8,,"JoshuaZ","Will Newsome",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T14:18:52.401Z","2011-09-14T15:20:03.000Z","2021-09-14T15:20:03.000Z"
"Mirror matter will be shown to make up at least 1% of dark matter.",25,,"Will Newsome","Will Newsome",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-14T15:20:03.000Z","2011-09-14T15:20:03.000Z","2021-09-14T15:20:03.000Z"
"Mirror matter will be shown to make up at least 1% of dark matter.",20,,"gwern","Will Newsome",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-14T22:55:27.000Z","2011-09-14T15:20:03.000Z","2021-09-14T15:20:03.000Z"
"Mirror matter will be shown to make up at least 1% of dark matter.",10,,"fergus","Will Newsome",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-15T09:44:48.000Z","2011-09-14T15:20:03.000Z","2021-09-14T15:20:03.000Z"
"Mirror matter will be shown to make up at least 1% of dark matter.",47,,"themusicgod1","Will Newsome",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T02:44:19.000Z","2011-09-14T15:20:03.000Z","2021-09-14T15:20:03.000Z"
"Mirror matter will be shown to make up at least 1% of dark matter.",20,,"JoshuaZ","Will Newsome",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T21:35:17.000Z","2011-09-14T15:20:03.000Z","2021-09-14T15:20:03.000Z"
"Mirror matter will be shown to make up at least 1% of dark matter.",10,,"army1987","Will Newsome",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-05T11:53:54.000Z","2011-09-14T15:20:03.000Z","2021-09-14T15:20:03.000Z"
"Mirror matter will be shown to make up at least 1% of dark matter.",30,,"army1987","Will Newsome",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-14T14:56:06.000Z","2011-09-14T15:20:03.000Z","2021-09-14T15:20:03.000Z"
"Mirror matter will be shown to make up at least 1% of dark matter.",10,,"Tuxedage","Will Newsome",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-14T19:45:06.000Z","2011-09-14T15:20:03.000Z","2021-09-14T15:20:03.000Z"
"Mirror matter will be shown to make up at least 1% of dark matter.",45,,"pranomostro","Will Newsome",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:35:17.669Z","2011-09-14T15:20:03.000Z","2021-09-14T15:20:03.000Z"
"Israel and Egypt at war by 2022",36,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-16T00:38:26.000Z","2011-09-16T00:38:26.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Israel and Egypt at war by 2022",50,,"Robert Kosten","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-19T20:17:24.000Z","2011-09-16T00:38:26.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Israel and Egypt at war by 2022",50,,"roxton","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-19T22:02:30.000Z","2011-09-16T00:38:26.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Israel and Egypt at war by 2022",47,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T02:43:55.000Z","2011-09-16T00:38:26.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Israel and Egypt at war by 2022",20,,"amadeu","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-07T20:03:30.686Z","2011-09-16T00:38:26.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Israel and Egypt at war by 2022",24,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T20:47:58.000Z","2011-09-16T00:38:26.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Israel and Egypt at war by 2022",20,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:32:50.559Z","2011-09-16T00:38:26.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Israel and Egypt at war by 2022",18,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T14:22:07.354Z","2011-09-16T00:38:26.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Israel and Egypt at war by 2022",25,,"gwern","JoshuaZ","eh. I don't see why egypt would think it could win...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-16T21:40:14.000Z","2011-09-16T00:38:26.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Israel and Egypt at war by 2022",30,,"faws","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-23T19:04:16.000Z","2011-09-16T00:38:26.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Wind power will provide more actual electricity than nuclear power by 2021, 80%' --taw",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-10T23:14:18.000Z","2011-01-10T23:14:18.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Wind power will provide more actual electricity than nuclear power by 2021, 80%' --taw",25,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T22:28:53.000Z","2011-01-10T23:14:18.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Wind power will provide more actual electricity than nuclear power by 2021, 80%' --taw",36,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T03:12:23.000Z","2011-01-10T23:14:18.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Wind power will provide more actual electricity than nuclear power by 2021, 80%' --taw",35,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T12:31:48.000Z","2011-01-10T23:14:18.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Wind power will provide more actual electricity than nuclear power by 2021, 80%' --taw",33,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-09T13:47:21.750Z","2011-01-10T23:14:18.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Wind power will provide more actual electricity than nuclear power by 2021, 80%' --taw",30,,"gimpf","gwern","Peak power maybe. But ""actual electricity"", in GWh accumulated during a year, hm.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-10T23:22:17.000Z","2011-01-10T23:14:18.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Wind power will provide more actual electricity than nuclear power by 2021, 80%' --taw",30,,"Konkvistador","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-08T09:50:03.000Z","2011-01-10T23:14:18.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Wind power will provide more actual electricity than nuclear power by 2021, 80%' --taw",20,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T12:01:42.000Z","2011-01-10T23:14:18.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Wind power will provide more actual electricity than nuclear power by 2021, 80%' --taw",50,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T13:04:48.000Z","2011-01-10T23:14:18.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Wind power will provide more actual electricity than nuclear power by 2021, 80%' --taw",30,,"pranomostro","gwern","2017 stats: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/images/charts/energy_consumption_by_source_large.jpg",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:09:16.514Z","2011-01-10T23:14:18.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2035, the Voynich Manuscript will be determined to be written in an archaic form of a language or dialect currently spoken in Italy.",60,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-24T18:11:50.000Z","2011-11-24T18:11:49.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2035, the Voynich Manuscript will be determined to be written in an archaic form of a language or dialect currently spoken in Italy.",20,,"Anubhav","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-25T02:17:53.000Z","2011-11-24T18:11:49.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2035, the Voynich Manuscript will be determined to be written in an archaic form of a language or dialect currently spoken in Italy.",15,,"roxton","NathanMcKnight","I think the odds of suddenly finding a Rosetta stone for these glyphs are far lower than 15%, but I have to balance that against the likelihood that NMK knows something I don't.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-25T18:41:17.000Z","2011-11-24T18:11:49.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2035, the Voynich Manuscript will be determined to be written in an archaic form of a language or dialect currently spoken in Italy.",5,,"Nic_Smith","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-27T18:15:21.000Z","2011-11-24T18:11:49.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2035, the Voynich Manuscript will be determined to be written in an archaic form of a language or dialect currently spoken in Italy.",46,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T22:50:35.000Z","2011-11-24T18:11:49.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2035, the Voynich Manuscript will be determined to be written in an archaic form of a language or dialect currently spoken in Italy.",4,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T21:26:44.238Z","2011-11-24T18:11:49.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2035, the Voynich Manuscript will be determined to be written in an archaic form of a language or dialect currently spoken in Italy.",20,,"gwern","NathanMcKnight","more or less complete decipherment, once you've nailed the language. skeptical it will be deciphered at all (40%) and italian dialects are only a few of many proposed languages (30%); 12%, double to compensate for your apparent expertise.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-24T18:33:25.000Z","2011-11-24T18:11:49.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2035, the Voynich Manuscript will be determined to be written in an archaic form of a language or dialect currently spoken in Italy.",8,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-25T00:22:46.000Z","2011-11-24T18:11:49.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2035, the Voynich Manuscript will be determined to be written in an archaic form of a language or dialect currently spoken in Italy.",35,,"pranomostro","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:42:57.845Z","2011-11-24T18:11:49.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"100% IPV6 deployment by 2020.

",32,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-08T20:51:39.000Z","2016-01-07T13:15:08.000Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"100% IPV6 deployment by 2020.

",17,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-11T04:33:14.000Z","2016-01-07T13:15:08.000Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"100% IPV6 deployment by 2020.

",97,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-07T13:15:08.000Z","2016-01-07T13:15:08.000Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"100% IPV6 deployment by 2020.

",10,,"Afforess","Raahul_Kumar","Maybe 2030.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-07T14:39:58.000Z","2016-01-07T13:15:08.000Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"100% IPV6 deployment by 2020.

",25,,"timujin","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-07T16:32:43.000Z","2016-01-07T13:15:08.000Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"100% IPV6 deployment by 2020.

",5,,"Medea","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-08T19:16:24.000Z","2016-01-07T13:15:08.000Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"100% IPV6 deployment by 2020.

",0,,"themusicgod1","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-10T04:53:24.000Z","2016-01-07T13:15:08.000Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"100% IPV6 deployment by 2020.

",20,,"lalaithion","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-14T06:37:04.000Z","2016-01-07T13:15:08.000Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"100% IPV6 deployment by 2020.

",44,,"themusicgod1","Raahul_Kumar","https://twitter.com/internetsociety/status/766678731251388416 US is making big strides in mobile, which is what matters.
Not 100% but hey.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-21T04:22:23.000Z","2016-01-07T13:15:08.000Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Number of human truck drivers in the US to fall by 50% by 2024 EOY",10,,"NickN","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T06:25:54.814Z","2019-03-07T01:34:46.021Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Number of human truck drivers in the US to fall by 50% by 2024 EOY",15,,"stepan","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-24T17:41:54.078Z","2019-03-07T01:34:46.021Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Number of human truck drivers in the US to fall by 50% by 2024 EOY",30,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-07T01:34:46.035Z","2019-03-07T01:34:46.021Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Number of human truck drivers in the US to fall by 50% by 2024 EOY",40,,"pranomostro","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-07T12:00:16.874Z","2019-03-07T01:34:46.021Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Number of human truck drivers in the US to fall by 50% by 2024 EOY",10,,"prophetofprofit","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-08T01:42:30.264Z","2019-03-07T01:34:46.021Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Number of human truck drivers in the US to fall by 50% by 2024 EOY",15,,"Athrithalix","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-08T11:02:34.942Z","2019-03-07T01:34:46.021Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Number of human truck drivers in the US to fall by 50% by 2024 EOY",5,,"true","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-09T11:14:45.706Z","2019-03-07T01:34:46.021Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Number of human truck drivers in the US to fall by 50% by 2024 EOY",20,,"Medea","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-09T12:30:48.668Z","2019-03-07T01:34:46.021Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Politics] Trump will remain president for the expected duration of his first term",89,,"Baeboo","RedScharlach",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T05:27:33.434Z","2019-02-15T07:57:27.781Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Politics] Trump will remain president for the expected duration of his first term",100,,"jamesrom","RedScharlach",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T07:23:13.576Z","2019-02-15T07:57:27.781Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Politics] Trump will remain president for the expected duration of his first term",85,,"RedScharlach","RedScharlach",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-15T07:57:27.787Z","2019-02-15T07:57:27.781Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Politics] Trump will remain president for the expected duration of his first term",75,,"Cato","RedScharlach",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-18T07:49:10.869Z","2019-02-15T07:57:27.781Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Politics] Trump will remain president for the expected duration of his first term",80,,"amadeu","RedScharlach",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-04T23:13:58.334Z","2019-02-15T07:57:27.781Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Politics] Trump will remain president for the expected duration of his first term",86,,"Baeboo","RedScharlach",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-27T20:57:22.284Z","2019-02-15T07:57:27.781Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Politics] Trump will remain president for the expected duration of his first term",98,,"NickN","RedScharlach",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T07:04:31.643Z","2019-02-15T07:57:27.781Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Politics] Trump will remain president for the expected duration of his first term",75,,"Baeboo","RedScharlach",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-15T16:10:26.664Z","2019-02-15T07:57:27.781Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Politics] Trump will remain president for the expected duration of his first term",85,,"pranomostro","RedScharlach",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-16T22:30:55.668Z","2019-02-15T07:57:27.781Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Politics] Trump will remain president for the expected duration of his first term",84,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","RedScharlach",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-25T12:24:38.922Z","2019-02-15T07:57:27.781Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Politics] Trump will remain president for the expected duration of his first term",90,,"amadeu","RedScharlach",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-27T13:11:30.644Z","2019-02-15T07:57:27.781Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Politics] Trump will remain president for the expected duration of his first term",90,,"Cato","RedScharlach",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-27T17:25:19.784Z","2019-02-15T07:57:27.781Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Politics] Trump will remain president for the expected duration of his first term",86,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","RedScharlach",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-06-05T02:07:06.390Z","2019-02-15T07:57:27.781Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2040 the existence of Qi will be accepted by the mainstream scientists, and Qi research will revolutionize our mechanical scientific TOE into a true TOE.”",1,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:44:22.606Z","2010-07-30T06:28:13.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2040 the existence of Qi will be accepted by the mainstream scientists, and Qi research will revolutionize our mechanical scientific TOE into a true TOE.”",3,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T23:49:58.000Z","2010-07-30T06:28:13.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2040 the existence of Qi will be accepted by the mainstream scientists, and Qi research will revolutionize our mechanical scientific TOE into a true TOE.”",0,,"Sniffnoy","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T10:05:37.000Z","2010-07-30T06:28:13.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2040 the existence of Qi will be accepted by the mainstream scientists, and Qi research will revolutionize our mechanical scientific TOE into a true TOE.”",1,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T09:55:31.000Z","2010-07-30T06:28:13.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2040 the existence of Qi will be accepted by the mainstream scientists, and Qi research will revolutionize our mechanical scientific TOE into a true TOE.”",2,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T06:28:13.000Z","2010-07-30T06:28:13.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2040 the existence of Qi will be accepted by the mainstream scientists, and Qi research will revolutionize our mechanical scientific TOE into a true TOE.”",0,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T21:10:32.080Z","2010-07-30T06:28:13.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2040 the existence of Qi will be accepted by the mainstream scientists, and Qi research will revolutionize our mechanical scientific TOE into a true TOE.”",0,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:07:34.000Z","2010-07-30T06:28:13.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2040 the existence of Qi will be accepted by the mainstream scientists, and Qi research will revolutionize our mechanical scientific TOE into a true TOE.”",0,,"lavalamp","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-10T23:48:13.000Z","2010-07-30T06:28:13.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2040 the existence of Qi will be accepted by the mainstream scientists, and Qi research will revolutionize our mechanical scientific TOE into a true TOE.”",0,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-12T14:08:05.000Z","2010-07-30T06:28:13.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2040 the existence of Qi will be accepted by the mainstream scientists, and Qi research will revolutionize our mechanical scientific TOE into a true TOE.”",0,,"JoshuaZ","gwern","Would require not only that the idea of Qi is correct (which is very unlikely) but also that it would be accepted by the scientific establishment. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-24T17:57:47.000Z","2010-07-30T06:28:13.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"5 million",0,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-23T10:10:09.541Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.558Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"5 million",15,,"nortriptyline2","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-22T22:50:57.562Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.558Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"5 million",1,,"Bruno Parga","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-11T14:00:56.918Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.558Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"5 million",1,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-03T02:29:46.776Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.558Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"5 million",27,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-11T06:09:26.950Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.558Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"5 million",34,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-25T05:48:44.344Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.558Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"5 million",30,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-13T06:59:11.880Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.558Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"5 million",31,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-03T09:12:11.994Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.558Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"5 million",9,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-26T21:57:19.804Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.558Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"5 million",0,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-05T05:43:34.472Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.558Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"5 million",50,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-03T13:27:34.411Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.558Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"5 million",0,,"avi","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-22T22:46:10.311Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.558Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"5 million",0,,"Medea","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-13T15:19:41.810Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.558Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"5 million",0,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-09T04:20:49.457Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.558Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"5 million",3,,"Bruno Parga","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-07T22:06:46.712Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.558Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"5 million",1,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-27T19:16:46.668Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.558Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"5 million",0,,"pranomostro","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-23T20:06:17.042Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.558Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"5 million",0,,"Bruno Parga","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-23T15:54:19.912Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.558Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"5 million",1,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T07:22:57.357Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.558Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"5 million",5,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-27T04:54:53.868Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.558Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"5 million",33,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-06T19:27:53.873Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.558Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"5 million",32,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-19T23:22:19.946Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.558Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"5 million",35,,"nortriptyline2","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-14T05:02:28.630Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.558Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"5 million",36,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-07T05:06:33.090Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.558Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"5 million",20,,"Bruno Parga","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-05T07:59:39.543Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.558Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"5 million",26,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-21T03:09:57.482Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.558Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"5 million",12,,"Bruno Parga","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-19T15:43:54.497Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.558Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"5 million",0,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-05T00:20:32.598Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.558Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"5 million",0,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-04T09:43:25.693Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.558Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"5 million",0,,"Baeboo","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-27T19:17:50.064Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.558Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"5 million",8,,"Bruno Parga","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-27T16:14:23.888Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.558Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"5 million",0,,"nortriptyline2","nortriptyline2",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-23T17:26:53.263Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.558Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"5 million",0,,"peter_hurford","nortriptyline2","2003 SARS killed 800 people. This strain is better contained and less virulent. Hard to imagine this reaching >5M.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-23T17:02:19.961Z","2020-01-22T22:50:57.558Z","2021-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, Taiwan will be a part of China, without being a war.",20,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","danpop","If China could consistently get Taiwan to do their bidding, it would be done covertly. No reason for China to even want actual unification, even if they claim to. (And this is to say nothing of Taiwan's opposition, which will be permanent.)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-15T03:27:44.000Z","2016-02-11T11:49:32.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, Taiwan will be a part of China, without being a war.",10,,"two2thehead","danpop",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-18T00:04:32.000Z","2016-02-11T11:49:32.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, Taiwan will be a part of China, without being a war.",6,,"leo_gri","danpop",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-27T00:47:26.000Z","2016-02-11T11:49:32.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, Taiwan will be a part of China, without being a war.",1,,"Houshalter","danpop","""In the new millennium, polls consistently found 70% to 80% of all Taiwanese opposed to unification. Immediate unification is supported by only about 2% and endorsed by none of the major political parties.""",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-12T01:24:18.000Z","2016-02-11T11:49:32.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, Taiwan will be a part of China, without being a war.",15,,"JoshuaZ","danpop",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-12T00:22:20.000Z","2016-02-11T11:49:32.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, Taiwan will be a part of China, without being a war.",13,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","danpop",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-15T03:28:16.000Z","2016-02-11T11:49:32.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, Taiwan will be a part of China, without being a war.",60,,"danpop","danpop",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-11T11:49:33.000Z","2016-02-11T11:49:32.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, Taiwan will be a part of China, without being a war.",5,,"NickN","danpop",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-19T22:44:43.774Z","2016-02-11T11:49:32.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, Taiwan will be a part of China, without being a war.",20,,"Temeraire","danpop","Assuming this means they actually administer Taiwan",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-11T23:03:50.000Z","2016-02-11T11:49:32.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The singularity will occur by the year 2070",7,,"JoshuaZ","pleeppleep",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-02T22:27:31.000Z","2011-12-02T16:13:55.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The singularity will occur by the year 2070",40,,"Tuxedage","pleeppleep",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-03T19:40:11.000Z","2011-12-02T16:13:55.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The singularity will occur by the year 2070",25,,"NathanMcKnight","pleeppleep","Hard to define. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-07T21:35:17.000Z","2011-12-02T16:13:55.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The singularity will occur by the year 2070",57,,"pleeppleep","pleeppleep",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-02T16:13:55.000Z","2011-12-02T16:13:55.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The singularity will occur by the year 2070",70,,"gwern","pleeppleep","after 2040: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/473 by 2050: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/4406",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-02T17:01:48.000Z","2011-12-02T16:13:55.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The singularity will occur by the year 2070",50,,"procran","pleeppleep",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-03T21:57:45.000Z","2011-12-02T16:13:55.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The singularity will occur by the year 2070",54,,"themusicgod1","pleeppleep",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:01:20.000Z","2011-12-02T16:13:55.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The singularity will occur by the year 2070",60,,"pranomostro","pleeppleep",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:40:40.374Z","2011-12-02T16:13:55.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Titan to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",15,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T12:14:27.000Z","2015-07-28T05:00:08.000Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Titan to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",7,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-14T06:43:58.000Z","2015-07-28T05:00:08.000Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Titan to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",5,,"espore","InquilineKea","Doesn't seem likely",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-02T20:55:21.000Z","2015-07-28T05:00:08.000Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Titan to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",1,,"supinf","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-31T00:38:05.000Z","2015-07-28T05:00:08.000Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Titan to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",2,,"ArturoGoosnargh","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-29T11:27:28.000Z","2015-07-28T05:00:08.000Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Titan to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",5,,"Jayson Virissimo","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T22:47:47.000Z","2015-07-28T05:00:08.000Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Titan to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",1,,"David","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T11:51:41.000Z","2015-07-28T05:00:08.000Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Titan to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",8,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T05:00:08.000Z","2015-07-28T05:00:08.000Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea will be wealthier than Afghanistan in 2061. --Scott Sumner",80,,"gwern","gwern","WP sez Afghanistan: $15B PPP GDP (as inflated by international spending); North Korea: est $40B PPP GDP",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-03T20:22:32.000Z","2011-12-03T19:57:25.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea will be wealthier than Afghanistan in 2061. --Scott Sumner",95,,"Konkvistador","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-03T20:37:20.000Z","2011-12-03T19:57:25.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea will be wealthier than Afghanistan in 2061. --Scott Sumner",70,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-12T05:26:53.000Z","2011-12-03T19:57:25.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea will be wealthier than Afghanistan in 2061. --Scott Sumner",80,,"Athrelon","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-27T23:40:28.000Z","2011-12-03T19:57:25.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea will be wealthier than Afghanistan in 2061. --Scott Sumner",80,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:40:14.020Z","2011-12-03T19:57:25.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea will be wealthier than Afghanistan in 2061. --Scott Sumner",75,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-03T19:57:25.000Z","2011-12-03T19:57:25.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea will be wealthier than Afghanistan in 2061. --Scott Sumner",70,,"chemotaxis101","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-06T08:06:15.000Z","2011-12-03T19:57:25.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea will be wealthier than Afghanistan in 2061. --Scott Sumner",63,,"faws","gwern","I would ascribe a much higher probability to the actual thesis, that if exactly one of those two nations qualifies as rich (e. g. defined as third quartile of PPP GDP per head or higher) it will be North Korea. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-17T15:15:23.000Z","2011-12-03T19:57:25.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea will be wealthier than Afghanistan in 2061. --Scott Sumner",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:07:48.000Z","2011-12-03T19:57:25.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Prime minister Boris Johnson",34,,"splorridge","splorridge","Theresa May seems to be leading in the polls. I'm surprised about this.

Also, now there's loads of folk involved. Crabb, Fox, Gove, Leadsom",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-30T08:21:34.000Z","2016-06-24T09:09:04.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Prime minister Boris Johnson",8,,"themusicgod1","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-24T12:59:23.000Z","2016-06-24T09:09:04.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Prime minister Boris Johnson",55,,"splorridge","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-29T09:12:32.000Z","2016-06-24T09:09:04.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Prime minister Boris Johnson",6,,"splorridge","splorridge","He's pulled out of the race. It seems very unlikely that there'll be another leadership election in the next five years that'll see him leader, unless the tories lose the 2020 election, in which case he probably won't be PM at least until 2025.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-30T11:16:55.000Z","2016-06-24T09:09:04.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Prime minister Boris Johnson",0,,"jesselevine","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-02T03:46:11.000Z","2016-06-24T09:09:04.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Prime minister Boris Johnson",5,,"elephantower","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-10T08:19:17.000Z","2016-06-24T09:09:04.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Prime minister Boris Johnson",1,,"Temeraire","splorridge","May almost definitely will remain PM unless the Tories lose the general. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-28T04:38:55.000Z","2016-06-24T09:09:04.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Prime minister Boris Johnson",47,,"splorridge","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-24T09:09:04.000Z","2016-06-24T09:09:04.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Prime minister Boris Johnson",80,,"Reactionaryhistorian","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-24T11:53:36.000Z","2016-06-24T09:09:04.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Prime minister Boris Johnson",71,,"JoshuaZ","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-24T12:29:45.000Z","2016-06-24T09:09:04.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Prime minister Boris Johnson",60,,"ejlflop","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-25T21:06:32.000Z","2016-06-24T09:09:04.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Prime minister Boris Johnson",79,,"splorridge","splorridge","New tory leader to be chosen by 2/9/16. Short time scale bodes well for Boris. Also, seems unlikely that anything will happen to make ""leader of the tory party"" != ""prime minister"" before then.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-27T18:27:06.000Z","2016-06-24T09:09:04.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Europa to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",8,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-14T06:43:51.000Z","2015-07-28T04:59:12.000Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Europa to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",55,,"espore","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-02T20:56:49.000Z","2015-07-28T04:59:12.000Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Europa to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",1,,"supinf","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-31T00:38:43.000Z","2015-07-28T04:59:12.000Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Europa to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",30,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T12:11:42.000Z","2015-07-28T04:59:12.000Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Europa to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",1,,"David","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T11:51:27.000Z","2015-07-28T04:59:12.000Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Europa to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",9,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T04:59:12.000Z","2015-07-28T04:59:12.000Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Europa to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",20,,"ArturoGoosnargh","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-29T11:28:48.000Z","2015-07-28T04:59:12.000Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Europa to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",1,,"Jayson Virissimo","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T22:48:28.000Z","2015-07-28T04:59:12.000Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“The Long Now Foundation will no longer exist in 2104.”",55,,"Selentelechia","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-13T18:16:08.000Z","2010-07-30T06:23:53.000Z","2104-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"“The Long Now Foundation will no longer exist in 2104.”",30,,"Tenobrus","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-09T03:22:28.000Z","2010-07-30T06:23:53.000Z","2104-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"“The Long Now Foundation will no longer exist in 2104.”",100,,"deleteyourbrain","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T02:53:37.954Z","2010-07-30T06:23:53.000Z","2104-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"“The Long Now Foundation will no longer exist in 2104.”",55,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-03T21:42:50.000Z","2010-07-30T06:23:53.000Z","2104-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"“The Long Now Foundation will no longer exist in 2104.”",40,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-02T20:44:20.000Z","2010-07-30T06:23:53.000Z","2104-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"“The Long Now Foundation will no longer exist in 2104.”",54,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:08:15.000Z","2010-07-30T06:23:53.000Z","2104-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"“The Long Now Foundation will no longer exist in 2104.”",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T23:44:18.000Z","2010-07-30T06:23:53.000Z","2104-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"“The Long Now Foundation will no longer exist in 2104.”",55,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-24T18:08:32.000Z","2010-07-30T06:23:53.000Z","2104-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"“The Long Now Foundation will no longer exist in 2104.”",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T06:23:53.000Z","2010-07-30T06:23:53.000Z","2104-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2040, no other country will have both more active nuclear warheads and higher GDP than the United States.",80,,"RandomThinker","Jayson Virissimo","US has a lot of warheads, and is least likely to give them up if their GDP starts going south.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-02T07:31:36.000Z","2012-10-02T03:16:18.000Z","2040-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"By 2040, no other country will have both more active nuclear warheads and higher GDP than the United States.",75,,"chemotaxis101","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-13T17:34:08.000Z","2012-10-02T03:16:18.000Z","2040-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"By 2040, no other country will have both more active nuclear warheads and higher GDP than the United States.",40,,"Jayson Virissimo","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-02T03:16:18.000Z","2012-10-02T03:16:18.000Z","2040-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"By 2040, no other country will have both more active nuclear warheads and higher GDP than the United States.",55,,"JoshuaZ","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-02T03:22:04.000Z","2012-10-02T03:16:18.000Z","2040-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"By 2040, no other country will have both more active nuclear warheads and higher GDP than the United States.",85,,"Ben Doherty","Jayson Virissimo","The US has more warheads than it needs, I don't think that anyone else would bother going that far, even if they did want global domination. It'd be interesting to split this into both predictions.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-02T20:24:47.000Z","2012-10-02T03:16:18.000Z","2040-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"By 2040, no other country will have both more active nuclear warheads and higher GDP than the United States.",85,,"RobertLumley","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-04T18:59:11.000Z","2012-10-02T03:16:18.000Z","2040-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"By 2040, no other country will have both more active nuclear warheads and higher GDP than the United States.",50,,"Ken","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-12T16:48:56.000Z","2012-10-02T03:16:18.000Z","2040-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"By 2040, no other country will have both more active nuclear warheads and higher GDP than the United States.",46,,"themusicgod1","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:40:59.000Z","2012-10-02T03:16:18.000Z","2040-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"Go will not be solved in the next fifty years. ",55,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T15:51:21.000Z","2011-10-07T15:51:21.000Z","2061-10-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"Go will not be solved in the next fifty years. ",60,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:27:14.822Z","2011-10-07T15:51:21.000Z","2061-10-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"Go will not be solved in the next fifty years. ",90,,"gwern","JoshuaZ","harder than chess...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-12T14:28:23.000Z","2011-10-07T15:51:21.000Z","2061-10-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"Go will not be solved in the next fifty years. ",85,,"Robert Kosten","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-09T11:00:10.000Z","2011-10-07T15:51:21.000Z","2061-10-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"Go will not be solved in the next fifty years. ",95,,"Sniffnoy","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-08T23:24:12.000Z","2011-10-07T15:51:21.000Z","2061-10-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"Go will not be solved in the next fifty years. ",64,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T22:29:31.000Z","2011-10-07T15:51:21.000Z","2061-10-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"Go will not be solved in the next fifty years. ",50,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T04:17:57.000Z","2011-10-07T15:51:21.000Z","2061-10-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"Go will not be solved in the next fifty years. ",99,,"lavalamp","JoshuaZ","Interpreting ""solved"" technically.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-10T16:46:41.000Z","2011-10-07T15:51:21.000Z","2061-10-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"Go will not be solved in the next fifty years. ",30,,"jasticE","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-09T01:22:43.000Z","2011-10-07T15:51:21.000Z","2061-10-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"""By 2025 the scientific evidence of a hither-to-unknown large bi-pedal great ape will be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists.""",1,,"bobpage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-21T04:26:44.000Z","2010-07-29T18:37:41.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""By 2025 the scientific evidence of a hither-to-unknown large bi-pedal great ape will be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists.""",7,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-29T18:37:41.000Z","2010-07-29T18:37:41.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""By 2025 the scientific evidence of a hither-to-unknown large bi-pedal great ape will be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists.""",0,,"deleteyourbrain","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T01:44:47.930Z","2010-07-29T18:37:41.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""By 2025 the scientific evidence of a hither-to-unknown large bi-pedal great ape will be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists.""",5,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-16T02:04:20.679Z","2010-07-29T18:37:41.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""By 2025 the scientific evidence of a hither-to-unknown large bi-pedal great ape will be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists.""",10,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-15T21:50:14.824Z","2010-07-29T18:37:41.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""By 2025 the scientific evidence of a hither-to-unknown large bi-pedal great ape will be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists.""",5,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-24T05:33:30.000Z","2010-07-29T18:37:41.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""By 2025 the scientific evidence of a hither-to-unknown large bi-pedal great ape will be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists.""",2,,"lavalamp","gwern","Would be lower, but gwern says 7%, so...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-24T01:01:12.000Z","2010-07-29T18:37:41.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""By 2025 the scientific evidence of a hither-to-unknown large bi-pedal great ape will be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists.""",10,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-21T04:49:36.000Z","2010-07-29T18:37:41.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 50 years, pedophilia (defined as no age restrictions on consenting partners) will be legal in at least one U.S. state.",0,,"Tuxedage","RobertLumley",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-05T08:10:58.000Z","2013-04-04T22:19:21.000Z","2063-04-04T17:00:00.000Z"
"In 50 years, pedophilia (defined as no age restrictions on consenting partners) will be legal in at least one U.S. state.",1,,"Medea","RobertLumley",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-09T11:57:43.000Z","2013-04-04T22:19:21.000Z","2063-04-04T17:00:00.000Z"
"In 50 years, pedophilia (defined as no age restrictions on consenting partners) will be legal in at least one U.S. state.",2,,"RobertLumley","RobertLumley",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-04T22:19:21.000Z","2013-04-04T22:19:21.000Z","2063-04-04T17:00:00.000Z"
"In 50 years, pedophilia (defined as no age restrictions on consenting partners) will be legal in at least one U.S. state.",1,,"JoshuaZ","RobertLumley",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-09T12:03:11.000Z","2013-04-04T22:19:21.000Z","2063-04-04T17:00:00.000Z"
"In 50 years, pedophilia (defined as no age restrictions on consenting partners) will be legal in at least one U.S. state.",1,,"mad","RobertLumley","I'm loathe to say ""0%"" solely because in the 60s gay rights were only just becoming a blip on the radar, and, well, we have NAMBLA....",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-07T06:50:34.000Z","2013-04-04T22:19:21.000Z","2063-04-04T17:00:00.000Z"
"In 50 years, pedophilia (defined as no age restrictions on consenting partners) will be legal in at least one U.S. state.",5,,"Jayson Virissimo","RobertLumley",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-25T22:37:34.000Z","2013-04-04T22:19:21.000Z","2063-04-04T17:00:00.000Z"
"In 50 years, pedophilia (defined as no age restrictions on consenting partners) will be legal in at least one U.S. state.",1,,"Roxolan","RobertLumley",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-25T21:57:16.000Z","2013-04-04T22:19:21.000Z","2063-04-04T17:00:00.000Z"
"In 50 years, pedophilia (defined as no age restrictions on consenting partners) will be legal in at least one U.S. state.",0,,"Osuniev","RobertLumley","NO age restriction makes it a bit absurd, doesn't it ? What about 1 years old ?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-15T00:10:18.000Z","2013-04-04T22:19:21.000Z","2063-04-04T17:00:00.000Z"
"Mark Zuckerberg will win the 2024 USA presidential elections.",1,,"splorridge","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-16T13:58:36.000Z","2017-01-14T00:17:32.000Z","2024-10-16T01:30:00.000Z"
"Mark Zuckerberg will win the 2024 USA presidential elections.",1,,"playablecharacter","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-15T10:40:07.000Z","2017-01-14T00:17:32.000Z","2024-10-16T01:30:00.000Z"
"Mark Zuckerberg will win the 2024 USA presidential elections.",8,,"themusicgod1","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-14T02:43:35.000Z","2017-01-14T00:17:32.000Z","2024-10-16T01:30:00.000Z"
"Mark Zuckerberg will win the 2024 USA presidential elections.",1,,"maxra","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-12T11:22:05.000Z","2017-01-14T00:17:32.000Z","2024-10-16T01:30:00.000Z"
"Mark Zuckerberg will win the 2024 USA presidential elections.",1,,"arpanagarawal","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-15T19:18:50.000Z","2017-01-14T00:17:32.000Z","2024-10-16T01:30:00.000Z"
"Mark Zuckerberg will win the 2024 USA presidential elections.",1,,"Michael Dickens","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-14T03:57:52.000Z","2017-01-14T00:17:32.000Z","2024-10-16T01:30:00.000Z"
"Mark Zuckerberg will win the 2024 USA presidential elections.",1,,"daccount10","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-14T03:25:42.000Z","2017-01-14T00:17:32.000Z","2024-10-16T01:30:00.000Z"
"Mark Zuckerberg will win the 2024 USA presidential elections.",15,,"Ben Doherty","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-14T00:17:32.000Z","2017-01-14T00:17:32.000Z","2024-10-16T01:30:00.000Z"
"Cultured mammalian meat cheaper than and as tasty as real meat by 2092 --Charles Stross",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-14T05:27:01.000Z","2012-01-14T05:27:01.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cultured mammalian meat cheaper than and as tasty as real meat by 2092 --Charles Stross",90,,"rrden","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-14T20:54:19.000Z","2012-01-14T05:27:01.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cultured mammalian meat cheaper than and as tasty as real meat by 2092 --Charles Stross",65,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-14T22:34:26.000Z","2012-01-14T05:27:01.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cultured mammalian meat cheaper than and as tasty as real meat by 2092 --Charles Stross",80,,"Anubhav","gwern","There is a non-negligible chance of apocalypse.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-15T02:02:13.000Z","2012-01-14T05:27:01.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cultured mammalian meat cheaper than and as tasty as real meat by 2092 --Charles Stross",70,,"lavalamp","gwern","That might even be enough time for people to get over the ""ick"" factor...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-20T16:48:39.000Z","2012-01-14T05:27:01.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cultured mammalian meat cheaper than and as tasty as real meat by 2092 --Charles Stross",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:53:42.000Z","2012-01-14T05:27:01.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cultured mammalian meat cheaper than and as tasty as real meat by 2092 --Charles Stross",90,,"Michael Dickens","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-05T02:17:40.000Z","2012-01-14T05:27:01.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cultured mammalian meat cheaper than and as tasty as real meat by 2092 --Charles Stross",80,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:09:38.817Z","2012-01-14T05:27:01.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“That by 2020 a wearable device will be available that will use voice recognition capability and high-volume storage to monitor and index conversations you have or conversations which occur in your vicinity for later searching as supplemental memory.”",78,,"Grognor","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-06T19:46:47.000Z","2010-07-30T05:23:26.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“That by 2020 a wearable device will be available that will use voice recognition capability and high-volume storage to monitor and index conversations you have or conversations which occur in your vicinity for later searching as supplemental memory.”",96,,"gwern","gwern","Actually, I think I'd better increase my confidence.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T05:24:45.000Z","2010-07-30T05:23:26.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“That by 2020 a wearable device will be available that will use voice recognition capability and high-volume storage to monitor and index conversations you have or conversations which occur in your vicinity for later searching as supplemental memory.”",90,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T05:23:26.000Z","2010-07-30T05:23:26.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“That by 2020 a wearable device will be available that will use voice recognition capability and high-volume storage to monitor and index conversations you have or conversations which occur in your vicinity for later searching as supplemental memory.”",60,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:21:09.323Z","2010-07-30T05:23:26.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“That by 2020 a wearable device will be available that will use voice recognition capability and high-volume storage to monitor and index conversations you have or conversations which occur in your vicinity for later searching as supplemental memory.”",70,,"pranomostro","gwern","I don't know if such a device is available at the moment. A quick internet search reveals nothing of the sort.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:20:59.215Z","2010-07-30T05:23:26.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“That by 2020 a wearable device will be available that will use voice recognition capability and high-volume storage to monitor and index conversations you have or conversations which occur in your vicinity for later searching as supplemental memory.”",90,,"Tuxedage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-06T00:01:27.000Z","2010-07-30T05:23:26.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“That by 2020 a wearable device will be available that will use voice recognition capability and high-volume storage to monitor and index conversations you have or conversations which occur in your vicinity for later searching as supplemental memory.”",88,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-05T22:12:04.000Z","2010-07-30T05:23:26.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“That by 2020 a wearable device will be available that will use voice recognition capability and high-volume storage to monitor and index conversations you have or conversations which occur in your vicinity for later searching as supplemental memory.”",98,,"HonoreDB","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-05T13:44:51.000Z","2010-07-30T05:23:26.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“That by 2020 a wearable device will be available that will use voice recognition capability and high-volume storage to monitor and index conversations you have or conversations which occur in your vicinity for later searching as supplemental memory.”",85,,"drethelin","gwern","I think it's basically guaranteed this will be possible by then but plenty of market niches don't necessarily get built.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-02T19:45:10.000Z","2010-07-30T05:23:26.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“That by 2020 a wearable device will be available that will use voice recognition capability and high-volume storage to monitor and index conversations you have or conversations which occur in your vicinity for later searching as supplemental memory.”",95,,"lavalamp","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-02T15:23:10.000Z","2010-07-30T05:23:26.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Manually driving a car will be outlawed in the U.S. by 2035",5,,"davatk","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-26T16:46:40.000Z","2015-07-27T02:06:21.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Manually driving a car will be outlawed in the U.S. by 2035",13,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T23:14:02.000Z","2015-07-27T02:06:21.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Manually driving a car will be outlawed in the U.S. by 2035",1,,"btrettel","InquilineKea","Do you mean human driven cars specifically, or would you allow the possibility of cars being outlawed in general (making both human and computer driven cars illegal)? Energy scarcity could lead to the latter. My prediction is for the former.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-27T14:31:01.000Z","2015-07-27T02:06:21.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Manually driving a car will be outlawed in the U.S. by 2035",30,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-27T02:06:21.000Z","2015-07-27T02:06:21.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Manually driving a car will be outlawed in the U.S. by 2035",22,,"kiimberlie","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-16T19:47:53.000Z","2015-07-27T02:06:21.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Manually driving a car will be outlawed in the U.S. by 2035",1,,"silacoid","InquilineKea","Won't happen, it will take longer for the self driving cars to get a majority of the market",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-05T12:52:01.000Z","2015-07-27T02:06:21.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Manually driving a car will be outlawed in the U.S. by 2035",12,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea","Way too fast a switch over. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-27T11:53:50.000Z","2015-07-27T02:06:21.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Manually driving a car will be outlawed in the U.S. by 2035",1,,"David","InquilineKea","This requires self-driving cars to be legal everywhere, and basically requires everyone to own one by then.  ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-27T09:44:55.000Z","2015-07-27T02:06:21.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Vertical farms are appearing in many cities' by 2025",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-29T22:36:09.000Z","2010-10-29T22:36:06.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Vertical farms are appearing in many cities' by 2025",1,,"TheScholar","gwern","Impossible, but people have failed doing obviously impossible things before, so I'll give it 1%. It will never work though.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-31T14:19:13.000Z","2010-10-29T22:36:06.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Vertical farms are appearing in many cities' by 2025",15,,"Nic_Smith","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-26T05:40:37.000Z","2010-10-29T22:36:06.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Vertical farms are appearing in many cities' by 2025",30,,"Ben Doherty","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-10T11:47:33.000Z","2010-10-29T22:36:06.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Vertical farms are appearing in many cities' by 2025",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T02:34:06.000Z","2010-10-29T22:36:06.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Vertical farms are appearing in many cities' by 2025",15,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:35:29.180Z","2010-10-29T22:36:06.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Vertical farms are appearing in many cities' by 2025",10,,"gimpf","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-12-12T18:16:48.000Z","2010-10-29T22:36:06.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Vertical farms are appearing in many cities' by 2025",15,,"JoshuaZ","gwern","I'm not sure how large a scale this needs to be fulfilled. If just predicting their appearance and not that they are major then this is more likely. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-26T19:45:53.000Z","2010-10-29T22:36:06.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Vertical farms are appearing in many cities' by 2025",11,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T13:58:37.000Z","2010-10-29T22:36:06.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Mass casaulties (>3000) from bioterrorism by 2030",75,,"Malgidus","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-27T22:22:42.000Z","2010-10-30T21:10:43.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Mass casaulties (>3000) from bioterrorism by 2030",65,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-30T21:10:45.000Z","2010-10-30T21:10:43.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Mass casaulties (>3000) from bioterrorism by 2030",75,,"anonym","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-27T20:29:04.000Z","2010-10-30T21:10:43.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Mass casaulties (>3000) from bioterrorism by 2030",51,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-28T02:12:17.000Z","2010-10-30T21:10:43.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Mass casaulties (>3000) from bioterrorism by 2030",50,,"simplicio","gwern","Assuming this means >3000 in one incident?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-28T20:52:09.000Z","2010-10-30T21:10:43.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Mass casaulties (>3000) from bioterrorism by 2030",4,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T02:33:34.000Z","2010-10-30T21:10:43.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Mass casaulties (>3000) from bioterrorism by 2030",25,,"RandomThinker","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-28T02:53:24.000Z","2010-10-30T21:10:43.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Mass casaulties (>3000) from bioterrorism by 2030",70,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:35:01.242Z","2010-10-30T21:10:43.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At any point before 2100, 5 billion humans (or emulated humans) are alive and physically within 3000 km of each other.",80,,"fergus","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-21T08:30:26.000Z","2011-10-19T22:16:31.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At any point before 2100, 5 billion humans (or emulated humans) are alive and physically within 3000 km of each other.",50,,"Jayson Virissimo","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-20T10:24:23.000Z","2011-10-19T22:16:31.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At any point before 2100, 5 billion humans (or emulated humans) are alive and physically within 3000 km of each other.",60,,"gwern","bobpage","might be tricky to define 'physically within' for ems.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-19T22:32:29.000Z","2011-10-19T22:16:31.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At any point before 2100, 5 billion humans (or emulated humans) are alive and physically within 3000 km of each other.",51,,"pranomostro","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T21:10:56.563Z","2011-10-19T22:16:31.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At any point before 2100, 5 billion humans (or emulated humans) are alive and physically within 3000 km of each other.",40,,"themusicgod1","bobpage","great claim",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T04:29:13.000Z","2011-10-19T22:16:31.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At any point before 2100, 5 billion humans (or emulated humans) are alive and physically within 3000 km of each other.",40,,"halfwit","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-09T18:30:09.000Z","2011-10-19T22:16:31.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At any point before 2100, 5 billion humans (or emulated humans) are alive and physically within 3000 km of each other.",55,,"TrE","bobpage","My estimated value should probably be higher since the prediction should be more likely true given that I survive to that point. Is that a valid line of reasoning?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-20T19:09:38.000Z","2011-10-19T22:16:31.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At any point before 2100, 5 billion humans (or emulated humans) are alive and physically within 3000 km of each other.",28,,"bobpage","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-19T22:16:32.000Z","2011-10-19T22:16:31.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"World population to drop for at least one of the next 10 years. (2015,2016, 2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024). ",15,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-10T22:29:37.000Z","2015-03-10T22:29:37.000Z","2025-02-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"World population to drop for at least one of the next 10 years. (2015,2016, 2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024). ",25,,"EloiseRosen","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-11T04:05:00.000Z","2015-03-10T22:29:37.000Z","2025-02-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"World population to drop for at least one of the next 10 years. (2015,2016, 2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024). ",5,,"Unknowns","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-11T07:11:16.000Z","2015-03-10T22:29:37.000Z","2025-02-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"World population to drop for at least one of the next 10 years. (2015,2016, 2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024). ",20,,"blsm","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-12T08:57:03.000Z","2015-03-10T22:29:37.000Z","2025-02-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"World population to drop for at least one of the next 10 years. (2015,2016, 2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024). ",20,,"orthonormal","JoshuaZ","However, many of the cases where this happens will also take down PredictionBook.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-19T05:26:40.000Z","2015-03-10T22:29:37.000Z","2025-02-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"World population to drop for at least one of the next 10 years. (2015,2016, 2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024). ",5,,"Tuxedage","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-24T21:41:07.000Z","2015-03-10T22:29:37.000Z","2025-02-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"World population to drop for at least one of the next 10 years. (2015,2016, 2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024). ",12,,"orthonormal","JoshuaZ","Anchoring effects made me guess higher at first than I should have.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-29T06:28:27.000Z","2015-03-10T22:29:37.000Z","2025-02-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"World population to drop for at least one of the next 10 years. (2015,2016, 2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024). ",5,,"btrettel","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-26T18:42:52.000Z","2015-03-10T22:29:37.000Z","2025-02-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"World population to drop for at least one of the next 10 years. (2015,2016, 2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024). ",3,,"mrmrpotatohead","JoshuaZ","only 2 that would lead to this outcome:
1 - world war
2 - pandemic
I give a one in 200 year base rate, but any given year is correlated w neighbors. So let's say only ~2%. 
W modern medicine/CDC i give only 0.5% to pandemic affecting",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-23T07:33:46.000Z","2015-03-10T22:29:37.000Z","2025-02-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"In the next 5 years, Northern Ireland holds either an Irish reunification referendum, or an independence referendum. ",5,,"NickN","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T06:24:54.498Z","2016-06-27T20:04:45.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next 5 years, Northern Ireland holds either an Irish reunification referendum, or an independence referendum. ",8,,"elephantower","NathanMcKnight","our day will come (but probably not by 2021 unfortunately)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:07:56.423Z","2016-06-27T20:04:45.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next 5 years, Northern Ireland holds either an Irish reunification referendum, or an independence referendum. ",10,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-27T20:04:45.000Z","2016-06-27T20:04:45.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next 5 years, Northern Ireland holds either an Irish reunification referendum, or an independence referendum. ",10,,"elephantower","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-02T21:42:20.000Z","2016-06-27T20:04:45.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next 5 years, Northern Ireland holds either an Irish reunification referendum, or an independence referendum. ",18,,"davatk","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-01T22:59:15.000Z","2016-06-27T20:04:45.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next 5 years, Northern Ireland holds either an Irish reunification referendum, or an independence referendum. ",0,,"kiimberlie","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-16T19:49:51.000Z","2016-06-27T20:04:45.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next 5 years, Northern Ireland holds either an Irish reunification referendum, or an independence referendum. ",0,,"Bruno Parga","NathanMcKnight","This would have had to be announced already.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T12:27:49.900Z","2016-06-27T20:04:45.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next 5 years, Northern Ireland holds either an Irish reunification referendum, or an independence referendum. ",5,,"Medea","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-09T12:51:14.974Z","2016-06-27T20:04:45.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next 5 years, Northern Ireland holds either an Irish reunification referendum, or an independence referendum. ",2,,"Bruno Parga","NathanMcKnight","They will probably want to, and ask for one, but Westminster has to agree to it. I'm assuming the prediction is only right if the referendum has happened by the end date.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-30T00:07:09.043Z","2016-06-27T20:04:45.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next 5 years, Northern Ireland holds either an Irish reunification referendum, or an independence referendum. ",15,,"Medea","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-28T07:41:43.000Z","2016-06-27T20:04:45.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next 5 years, Northern Ireland holds either an Irish reunification referendum, or an independence referendum. ",60,,"Raahul_Kumar","NathanMcKnight","Majority of Irish voted for Remain. If Northern Ireland is seperated by a real border, they will want to join the EU.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-06T02:23:46.000Z","2016-06-27T20:04:45.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.",87,,"Zvi","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T21:59:34.005Z","2021-01-09T20:02:42.736Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.",96,,"Zvi","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T21:59:33.496Z","2021-01-09T20:02:42.736Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.",70,,"Ben Pace","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T05:54:01.707Z","2021-01-09T20:02:42.736Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.",75,,"Ben Pace","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T05:54:04.129Z","2021-01-09T20:02:42.736Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.",61,,"Oskar Mathiasen","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T12:09:30.994Z","2021-01-09T20:02:42.736Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.",87,,"Zvi","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T21:59:31.713Z","2021-01-09T20:02:42.736Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.",15,,"Geoffrey Wood","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:38:08.530Z","2021-01-09T20:02:42.736Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.",70,,"Benjamin Rachbach","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T02:26:39.874Z","2021-01-09T20:02:42.736Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.",90,,"ejacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T00:02:43.314Z","2021-01-09T20:02:42.736Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.",37,,"pepe_prime","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T02:35:32.614Z","2021-01-09T20:02:42.736Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.",60,,"philh","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T19:24:36.704Z","2021-01-09T20:02:42.736Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Javascript is still the dominant programming language in browsers by 2030",85,,"avi","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-22T22:50:15.202Z","2020-01-03T13:26:18.923Z","2030-12-31T11:00:00.000Z"
"Javascript is still the dominant programming language in browsers by 2030",75,,"bcongdon","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T04:39:21.515Z","2020-01-03T13:26:18.923Z","2030-12-31T11:00:00.000Z"
"Javascript is still the dominant programming language in browsers by 2030",60,,"optimaton","qznc","Web assembly leverage for other languages? No?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-04T09:32:20.007Z","2020-01-03T13:26:18.923Z","2030-12-31T11:00:00.000Z"
"Javascript is still the dominant programming language in browsers by 2030",80,,"Bruno Parga","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-04T01:04:45.124Z","2020-01-03T13:26:18.923Z","2030-12-31T11:00:00.000Z"
"Javascript is still the dominant programming language in browsers by 2030",70,,"Baeboo","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T07:06:26.315Z","2020-01-03T13:26:18.923Z","2030-12-31T11:00:00.000Z"
"Javascript is still the dominant programming language in browsers by 2030",85,,"HonoreDB","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-24T17:30:22.388Z","2020-01-03T13:26:18.923Z","2030-12-31T11:00:00.000Z"
"Javascript is still the dominant programming language in browsers by 2030",76,,"Baeboo","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-12T19:41:51.467Z","2020-01-03T13:26:18.923Z","2030-12-31T11:00:00.000Z"
"Javascript is still the dominant programming language in browsers by 2030",75,,"pranomostro","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-11T16:40:12.331Z","2020-01-03T13:26:18.923Z","2030-12-31T11:00:00.000Z"
"Javascript is still the dominant programming language in browsers by 2030",90,,"qznc","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-03T13:26:18.927Z","2020-01-03T13:26:18.923Z","2030-12-31T11:00:00.000Z"
"Will world GDP double within 4 years after receiving a message from outer space?",98,,"Yousif","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T22:29:32.056Z","2020-11-30T19:55:54.586Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will world GDP double within 4 years after receiving a message from outer space?",10,,"Michael H","Michael H","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T19:55:54.593Z","2020-11-30T19:55:54.586Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will world GDP double within 4 years after receiving a message from outer space?",5,,"adamShimi","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:00:41.311Z","2020-11-30T19:55:54.586Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will world GDP double within 4 years after receiving a message from outer space?",30,,"AnthonyC","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T13:49:48.160Z","2020-11-30T19:55:54.586Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will world GDP double within 4 years after receiving a message from outer space?",10,,"Pialgo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:09:40.223Z","2020-11-30T19:55:54.586Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will world GDP double within 4 years after receiving a message from outer space?",5,,"Pialgo","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:09:43.527Z","2020-11-30T19:55:54.586Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will world GDP double within 4 years after receiving a message from outer space?",54,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:17:49.932Z","2020-11-30T19:55:54.586Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will world GDP double within 4 years after receiving a message from outer space?",40,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:17:51.274Z","2020-11-30T19:55:54.586Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will world GDP double within 4 years after receiving a message from outer space?",33,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:17:54.336Z","2020-11-30T19:55:54.586Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will world GDP double within 4 years after receiving a message from outer space?",20,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:18:04.474Z","2020-11-30T19:55:54.586Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will world GDP double within 4 years after receiving a message from outer space?",10,,"Charlie Steiner","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T08:36:10.716Z","2020-11-30T19:55:54.586Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will world GDP double within 4 years after receiving a message from outer space?",18,,"rockthecasbah","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T14:18:06.631Z","2020-11-30T19:55:54.586Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will world GDP double within 4 years after receiving a message from outer space?",10,,"CellBioGuy","Michael H",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T07:49:44.395Z","2020-11-30T19:55:54.586Z","2021-11-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"In 25 years, infanticide will be legal in at least one U.S. state.",2,,"mad","RobertLumley","My 2% is for ""child euthanasia"", not infanticide. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-07T06:52:48.000Z","2013-04-04T22:21:02.000Z","2038-04-04T16:00:00.000Z"
"In 25 years, infanticide will be legal in at least one U.S. state.",3,,"Tuxedage","RobertLumley",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-05T08:10:45.000Z","2013-04-04T22:21:02.000Z","2038-04-04T16:00:00.000Z"
"In 25 years, infanticide will be legal in at least one U.S. state.",5,,"RobertLumley","RobertLumley",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-04T22:21:02.000Z","2013-04-04T22:21:02.000Z","2038-04-04T16:00:00.000Z"
"In 25 years, infanticide will be legal in at least one U.S. state.",42,,"themusicgod1","RobertLumley",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-14T07:16:26.000Z","2013-04-04T22:21:02.000Z","2038-04-04T16:00:00.000Z"
"In 25 years, infanticide will be legal in at least one U.S. state.",3,,"Patrick Brinich-Langlois","RobertLumley","Perhaps child euthanasia is what's meant? I thought it was legal in the Netherlands, but it's not: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Child_euthanasia",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-03T11:38:51.000Z","2013-04-04T22:21:02.000Z","2038-04-04T16:00:00.000Z"
"In 25 years, infanticide will be legal in at least one U.S. state.",0,,"Osuniev","RobertLumley","I feel like I might misunderstand what is meant by ""infanticide""",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-17T07:51:43.000Z","2013-04-04T22:21:02.000Z","2038-04-04T16:00:00.000Z"
"In 25 years, infanticide will be legal in at least one U.S. state.",0,,"ChristianKl","RobertLumley",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-09T23:31:13.000Z","2013-04-04T22:21:02.000Z","2038-04-04T16:00:00.000Z"
"In 25 years, infanticide will be legal in at least one U.S. state.",0,,"hedges","RobertLumley",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-04T22:53:48.000Z","2013-04-04T22:21:02.000Z","2038-04-04T16:00:00.000Z"
"1 person helicopter drones will not be used for commercial public passenger use",100,,"Balazs","kjaques",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-27T23:48:04.000Z","2016-12-15T16:44:00.000Z","2021-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"1 person helicopter drones will not be used for commercial public passenger use",90,,"penten","kjaques","imagine it is too inefficient to be worthwhile",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-19T08:37:54.000Z","2016-12-15T16:44:00.000Z","2021-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"1 person helicopter drones will not be used for commercial public passenger use",51,,"themusicgod1","kjaques",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-15T21:02:02.000Z","2016-12-15T16:44:00.000Z","2021-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"1 person helicopter drones will not be used for commercial public passenger use",95,,"sam_jaques","kjaques",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-01T08:48:12.381Z","2016-12-15T16:44:00.000Z","2021-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"1 person helicopter drones will not be used for commercial public passenger use",90,,"bendini","kjaques",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-24T16:16:49.000Z","2016-12-15T16:44:00.000Z","2021-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"1 person helicopter drones will not be used for commercial public passenger use",95,,"Rob Bednark","kjaques",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-21T00:03:05.000Z","2016-12-15T16:44:00.000Z","2021-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"1 person helicopter drones will not be used for commercial public passenger use",65,,"kjaques","kjaques",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-15T16:44:00.000Z","2016-12-15T16:44:00.000Z","2021-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"1 person helicopter drones will not be used for commercial public passenger use",100,,"NickN","kjaques",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-17T10:25:30.072Z","2016-12-15T16:44:00.000Z","2021-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Astronomers will detect a planet where alcohol is thought to rain from the sky. ",20,,"pranomostro","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T22:51:54.943Z","2013-07-12T14:07:47.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Astronomers will detect a planet where alcohol is thought to rain from the sky. ",45,,"Jayson Virissimo","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-17T15:58:57.000Z","2013-07-12T14:07:47.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Astronomers will detect a planet where alcohol is thought to rain from the sky. ",25,,"gwern","NathanMcKnight","there are a lot of biochemical processes involving alcohols, sure, but no natural geological ones...?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-13T01:18:30.000Z","2013-07-12T14:07:47.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Astronomers will detect a planet where alcohol is thought to rain from the sky. ",18,,"Baeboo","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T03:44:25.829Z","2013-07-12T14:07:47.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Astronomers will detect a planet where alcohol is thought to rain from the sky. ",70,,"azax1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-19T15:07:17.000Z","2013-07-12T14:07:47.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Astronomers will detect a planet where alcohol is thought to rain from the sky. ",15,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-13T13:43:30.000Z","2013-07-12T14:07:47.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Astronomers will detect a planet where alcohol is thought to rain from the sky. ",60,,"tedks","NathanMcKnight","Calibration arbitrage",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-12T20:29:57.000Z","2013-07-12T14:07:47.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Astronomers will detect a planet where alcohol is thought to rain from the sky. ",75,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-12T14:07:47.000Z","2013-07-12T14:07:47.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Caffeine will not be the primary stimulant (measured by daily users)",16,,"playablecharacter","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-02T21:15:09.000Z","2016-12-13T23:03:08.000Z","2031-12-13T23:03:08.000Z"
"Caffeine will not be the primary stimulant (measured by daily users)",10,,"timujin","Ben Doherty","Only if -finils become mainstream or something.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-22T11:10:30.000Z","2016-12-13T23:03:08.000Z","2031-12-13T23:03:08.000Z"
"Caffeine will not be the primary stimulant (measured by daily users)",3,,"EloiseRosen","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-31T21:39:43.000Z","2016-12-13T23:03:08.000Z","2031-12-13T23:03:08.000Z"
"Caffeine will not be the primary stimulant (measured by daily users)",5,,"Dapple","Ben Doherty","My greatest skepticism is based on people who use newer/better stimulants, will generally still consume caffeine. Whether by mere habit or explicit intent is irrelevant.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-23T07:22:57.000Z","2016-12-13T23:03:08.000Z","2031-12-13T23:03:08.000Z"
"Caffeine will not be the primary stimulant (measured by daily users)",10,,"bendini","Ben Doherty","15 years is a long time",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-20T23:51:21.000Z","2016-12-13T23:03:08.000Z","2031-12-13T23:03:08.000Z"
"Caffeine will not be the primary stimulant (measured by daily users)",56,,"themusicgod1","Ben Doherty","Snow crash > coffee",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-14T17:22:00.000Z","2016-12-13T23:03:08.000Z","2031-12-13T23:03:08.000Z"
"Caffeine will not be the primary stimulant (measured by daily users)",5,,"penten","Ben Doherty","*Most* people use caffeine daily, numbers up to 90% in many countries (US/UK/Nords) -- not found great numbers for many countries though. Would need huge changes (habits/politics/production) to overtake caffeine in 15 years.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-14T09:12:01.000Z","2016-12-13T23:03:08.000Z","2031-12-13T23:03:08.000Z"
"Caffeine will not be the primary stimulant (measured by daily users)",50,,"Ben Doherty","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-13T23:03:08.000Z","2016-12-13T23:03:08.000Z","2031-12-13T23:03:08.000Z"
"The Russian Federation will disintegrate in the next 15 years, defined by either the current amount of land broadly recognized as Russia reducing by 20% or a clear state of anarchy and general collapse.",22,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-19T18:06:26.000Z","2015-04-19T18:06:26.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Russian Federation will disintegrate in the next 15 years, defined by either the current amount of land broadly recognized as Russia reducing by 20% or a clear state of anarchy and general collapse.",20,,"aoeu","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-19T20:49:13.000Z","2015-04-19T18:06:26.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Russian Federation will disintegrate in the next 15 years, defined by either the current amount of land broadly recognized as Russia reducing by 20% or a clear state of anarchy and general collapse.",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","JoshuaZ","Man fusion, now this. But at least you gave a date and definition for your prediction, so the magnitude of your mistake will be clear.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-17T08:57:48.000Z","2015-04-19T18:06:26.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Russian Federation will disintegrate in the next 15 years, defined by either the current amount of land broadly recognized as Russia reducing by 20% or a clear state of anarchy and general collapse.",14,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T23:53:06.000Z","2015-04-19T18:06:26.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Russian Federation will disintegrate in the next 15 years, defined by either the current amount of land broadly recognized as Russia reducing by 20% or a clear state of anarchy and general collapse.",1,,"aoeu","JoshuaZ","no idea what I was thinking with 20%",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-12T14:25:12.761Z","2015-04-19T18:06:26.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Russian Federation will disintegrate in the next 15 years, defined by either the current amount of land broadly recognized as Russia reducing by 20% or a clear state of anarchy and general collapse.",4,,"Chri","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-19T20:10:12.000Z","2015-04-19T18:06:26.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Russian Federation will disintegrate in the next 15 years, defined by either the current amount of land broadly recognized as Russia reducing by 20% or a clear state of anarchy and general collapse.",3,,"jesselevine","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-22T16:53:54.000Z","2015-04-19T18:06:26.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Russian Federation will disintegrate in the next 15 years, defined by either the current amount of land broadly recognized as Russia reducing by 20% or a clear state of anarchy and general collapse.",10,,"timujin","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-23T07:44:58.000Z","2015-04-19T18:06:26.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Russian Federation will disintegrate in the next 15 years, defined by either the current amount of land broadly recognized as Russia reducing by 20% or a clear state of anarchy and general collapse.",6,,"Baeboo","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-12T22:15:13.043Z","2015-04-19T18:06:26.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, at least 70% of jobs existing in 2015 will be replaced with automation.",100,,"Exodus111","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-20T02:28:45.000Z","2015-04-20T02:15:56.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, at least 70% of jobs existing in 2015 will be replaced with automation.",5,,"Unknowns","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-20T17:30:18.000Z","2015-04-20T02:15:56.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, at least 70% of jobs existing in 2015 will be replaced with automation.",5,,"btrettel","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-24T21:27:10.000Z","2015-04-20T02:15:56.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, at least 70% of jobs existing in 2015 will be replaced with automation.",50,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T23:52:14.000Z","2015-04-20T02:15:56.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, at least 70% of jobs existing in 2015 will be replaced with automation.",15,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-20T02:15:56.000Z","2015-04-20T02:15:56.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, at least 70% of jobs existing in 2015 will be replaced with automation.",8,,"Chri","JoshuaZ","I understand the prediction as being about the US, if it is meant worldwide I'd say <1%.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-20T06:46:25.000Z","2015-04-20T02:15:56.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, at least 70% of jobs existing in 2015 will be replaced with automation.",2,,"jesselevine","JoshuaZ","Automation has been around for quite awhile. You could be arguing Moore's Law, but 70% is just such a damn high number that I can't predict high.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-22T16:52:18.000Z","2015-04-20T02:15:56.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, at least 70% of jobs existing in 2015 will be replaced with automation.",30,,"InquilineKea","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T20:12:24.000Z","2015-04-20T02:15:56.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2029 no computer - or ""machine intelligence"" - will have passed the Turing Test. ",15,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-15T06:36:45.249Z","2010-07-29T18:19:16.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2029 no computer - or ""machine intelligence"" - will have passed the Turing Test. ",45,,"Grognor","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-06T19:31:26.000Z","2010-07-29T18:19:16.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2029 no computer - or ""machine intelligence"" - will have passed the Turing Test. ",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-29T18:19:16.000Z","2010-07-29T18:19:16.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2029 no computer - or ""machine intelligence"" - will have passed the Turing Test. ",80,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-06T18:24:24.373Z","2010-07-29T18:19:16.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2029 no computer - or ""machine intelligence"" - will have passed the Turing Test. ",35,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-01T12:17:38.028Z","2010-07-29T18:19:16.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2029 no computer - or ""machine intelligence"" - will have passed the Turing Test. ",0,,"deleteyourbrain","gwern","That's right. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T01:46:48.046Z","2010-07-29T18:19:16.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2029 no computer - or ""machine intelligence"" - will have passed the Turing Test. ",60,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-16T02:11:11.173Z","2010-07-29T18:19:16.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2029 no computer - or ""machine intelligence"" - will have passed the Turing Test. ",50,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-15T21:51:47.102Z","2010-07-29T18:19:16.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2029 no computer - or ""machine intelligence"" - will have passed the Turing Test. ",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T23:07:06.000Z","2010-07-29T18:19:16.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2029 no computer - or ""machine intelligence"" - will have passed the Turing Test. ",30,,"mmmkkaaayy","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-08T01:01:28.245Z","2010-07-29T18:19:16.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2029 no computer - or ""machine intelligence"" - will have passed the Turing Test. ",76,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-27T07:14:51.458Z","2010-07-29T18:19:16.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2029 no computer - or ""machine intelligence"" - will have passed the Turing Test. ",71,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-29T02:06:04.731Z","2010-07-29T18:19:16.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2029 no computer - or ""machine intelligence"" - will have passed the Turing Test. ",66,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-31T22:47:13.847Z","2010-07-29T18:19:16.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2029 no computer - or ""machine intelligence"" - will have passed the Turing Test. ",20,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-01T12:17:48.065Z","2010-07-29T18:19:16.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2029 no computer - or ""machine intelligence"" - will have passed the Turing Test. ",75,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T02:28:15.363Z","2010-07-29T18:19:16.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one major stock exchange will have 24/7 trading hours before the end of 2030",55,,"themusicgod1","Afforess","Cryptocurrency exerts pressures in this direction over long periods of time. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-22T22:28:47.000Z","2015-07-23T22:52:28.000Z","2030-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"At least one major stock exchange will have 24/7 trading hours before the end of 2030",72,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Afforess","Ok, cool. Thanks.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-01T02:41:45.000Z","2015-07-23T22:52:28.000Z","2030-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"At least one major stock exchange will have 24/7 trading hours before the end of 2030",45,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Afforess","^Well, I imagine least one exchange company will have an ATS platform open 24/7 by then. Hmm... ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-23T05:04:59.000Z","2015-07-23T22:52:28.000Z","2030-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"At least one major stock exchange will have 24/7 trading hours before the end of 2030",35,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Afforess",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-23T04:55:08.000Z","2015-07-23T22:52:28.000Z","2030-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"At least one major stock exchange will have 24/7 trading hours before the end of 2030",33,,"sflicht","Afforess",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-25T19:16:06.000Z","2015-07-23T22:52:28.000Z","2030-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"At least one major stock exchange will have 24/7 trading hours before the end of 2030",99,,"espore","Afforess",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-02T21:06:28.000Z","2015-07-23T22:52:28.000Z","2030-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"At least one major stock exchange will have 24/7 trading hours before the end of 2030",65,,"JoshuaZ","Afforess",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-29T00:29:00.000Z","2015-07-23T22:52:28.000Z","2030-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"At least one major stock exchange will have 24/7 trading hours before the end of 2030",70,,"Jayson Virissimo","Afforess",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T22:51:25.000Z","2015-07-23T22:52:28.000Z","2030-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"At least one major stock exchange will have 24/7 trading hours before the end of 2030",85,,"quanticle","Afforess","With the increasing prevalence of algorithmic trading, its inevitable that at some point an exchange will open up for ""free-for-all"" trading. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-23T22:56:44.000Z","2015-07-23T22:52:28.000Z","2030-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"At least one major stock exchange will have 24/7 trading hours before the end of 2030",80,,"Afforess","Afforess",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-23T22:52:28.000Z","2015-07-23T22:52:28.000Z","2030-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"PRC troops will be on the ground in California by 31 December 2030.",1,,"lalaithion","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-14T20:06:15.616Z","2020-09-10T04:11:12.261Z","2030-12-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"PRC troops will be on the ground in California by 31 December 2030.",0,,"Deepak","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-16T17:52:02.906Z","2020-09-10T04:11:12.261Z","2030-12-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"PRC troops will be on the ground in California by 31 December 2030.",0,,"Bruno Parga","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T12:45:49.449Z","2020-09-10T04:11:12.261Z","2030-12-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"PRC troops will be on the ground in California by 31 December 2030.",1,,"PlacidPlatypus","najdorf","1% seems too high but this site doesn't support decimals.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-10T14:59:31.200Z","2020-09-10T04:11:12.261Z","2030-12-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"PRC troops will be on the ground in California by 31 December 2030.",1,,"Medea","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T14:37:27.909Z","2020-09-10T04:11:12.261Z","2030-12-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"PRC troops will be on the ground in California by 31 December 2030.",0,,"JoshuaZ","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-15T20:28:10.593Z","2020-09-10T04:11:12.261Z","2030-12-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"PRC troops will be on the ground in California by 31 December 2030.",0,,"Baeboo","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-14T21:01:29.222Z","2020-09-10T04:11:12.261Z","2030-12-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"PRC troops will be on the ground in California by 31 December 2030.",80,,"najdorf","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-10T04:11:12.275Z","2020-09-10T04:11:12.261Z","2030-12-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"Integer factoring in polynomial time, revealed by 2020 --Dick Lipton",2,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:02:10.743Z","2011-06-27T14:14:11.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Integer factoring in polynomial time, revealed by 2020 --Dick Lipton",18,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-08T23:05:22.000Z","2011-06-27T14:14:11.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Integer factoring in polynomial time, revealed by 2020 --Dick Lipton",28,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-08T21:08:33.000Z","2011-06-27T14:14:11.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Integer factoring in polynomial time, revealed by 2020 --Dick Lipton",15,,"RandomThinker","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-05T21:47:30.000Z","2011-06-27T14:14:11.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Integer factoring in polynomial time, revealed by 2020 --Dick Lipton",5,,"RandomThinker","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-05T21:46:57.000Z","2011-06-27T14:14:11.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Integer factoring in polynomial time, revealed by 2020 --Dick Lipton",20,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-14T13:14:44.000Z","2011-06-27T14:14:11.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Integer factoring in polynomial time, revealed by 2020 --Dick Lipton",5,,"gimpf","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-14T07:26:54.000Z","2011-06-27T14:14:11.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Integer factoring in polynomial time, revealed by 2020 --Dick Lipton",15,,"gimpf","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-14T07:26:37.000Z","2011-06-27T14:14:11.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Integer factoring in polynomial time, revealed by 2020 --Dick Lipton",5,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-06-27T14:14:11.000Z","2011-06-27T14:14:11.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Integer factoring in polynomial time, revealed by 2020 --Dick Lipton",1,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-27T07:42:44.523Z","2011-06-27T14:14:11.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Integer factoring in polynomial time, revealed by 2020 --Dick Lipton",1,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-27T12:22:19.708Z","2011-06-27T14:14:11.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Integer factoring in polynomial time, revealed by 2020 --Dick Lipton",2,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-09T01:39:40.141Z","2011-06-27T14:14:11.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Integer factoring in polynomial time, revealed by 2020 --Dick Lipton",3,,"amadeu","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-07T19:54:03.853Z","2011-06-27T14:14:11.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humans will have landed on Mars alive by the 31-12-2027.
(Landed in the sense that the vehicle/capsule in which they live, physically touches martian soil.)",5,,"chemotaxis101","Mathieu_Putz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-04T21:11:52.945Z","2020-06-03T19:00:26.160Z","2027-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humans will have landed on Mars alive by the 31-12-2027.
(Landed in the sense that the vehicle/capsule in which they live, physically touches martian soil.)",7,,"JohnGreer","Mathieu_Putz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-06T20:06:14.481Z","2020-06-03T19:00:26.160Z","2027-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humans will have landed on Mars alive by the 31-12-2027.
(Landed in the sense that the vehicle/capsule in which they live, physically touches martian soil.)",15,,"Baeboo","Mathieu_Putz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-07T00:31:40.470Z","2020-06-03T19:00:26.160Z","2027-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humans will have landed on Mars alive by the 31-12-2027.
(Landed in the sense that the vehicle/capsule in which they live, physically touches martian soil.)",0,,"NickN","Mathieu_Putz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T06:44:42.601Z","2020-06-03T19:00:26.160Z","2027-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humans will have landed on Mars alive by the 31-12-2027.
(Landed in the sense that the vehicle/capsule in which they live, physically touches martian soil.)",12,,"Mathieu_Putz","Mathieu_Putz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-03T19:00:26.165Z","2020-06-03T19:00:26.160Z","2027-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humans will have landed on Mars alive by the 31-12-2027.
(Landed in the sense that the vehicle/capsule in which they live, physically touches martian soil.)",24,,"JoshuaZ","Mathieu_Putz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-04T21:59:35.898Z","2020-06-03T19:00:26.160Z","2027-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humans will have landed on Mars alive by the 31-12-2027.
(Landed in the sense that the vehicle/capsule in which they live, physically touches martian soil.)",5,,"deoh","Mathieu_Putz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-06T07:26:42.297Z","2020-06-03T19:00:26.160Z","2027-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humans will have landed on Mars alive by the 31-12-2027.
(Landed in the sense that the vehicle/capsule in which they live, physically touches martian soil.)",10,,"Baeboo","Mathieu_Putz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-07T00:31:10.722Z","2020-06-03T19:00:26.160Z","2027-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humans will have landed on Mars alive by the 31-12-2027.
(Landed in the sense that the vehicle/capsule in which they live, physically touches martian soil.)",15,,"Medea","Mathieu_Putz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-09T11:18:00.581Z","2020-06-03T19:00:26.160Z","2027-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Marijuana will be legal by 2025",60,,"NathanMcKnight","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-30T16:58:14.000Z","2012-04-08T03:18:07.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Marijuana will be legal by 2025",65,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-08T03:18:07.000Z","2012-04-08T03:18:07.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Marijuana will be legal by 2025",80,,"NathanMcKnight","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-02T15:27:13.000Z","2012-04-08T03:18:07.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Marijuana will be legal by 2025",50,,"High_Fiber_Twigs","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-15T21:14:00.000Z","2012-04-08T03:18:07.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Marijuana will be legal by 2025",55,,"JoshuaZ","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-29T18:25:03.000Z","2012-04-08T03:18:07.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Marijuana will be legal by 2025",65,,"Oscar_Cunningham","RandomThinker","What if it's legalised and then subsequently illegalised?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-20T11:59:52.000Z","2012-04-08T03:18:07.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Marijuana will be legal by 2025",52,,"Cy Fleming","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-20T04:50:43.000Z","2012-04-08T03:18:07.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Marijuana will be legal by 2025",95,,"andrevan","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-27T01:19:04.000Z","2012-04-08T03:18:07.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Marijuana will be legal by 2025",70,,"ygert","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-12-25T13:08:30.000Z","2012-04-08T03:18:07.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No functional whole brain emulation of a human will exist on Earth before 2050.",50,,"Baeboo","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-10T20:51:14.000Z","2012-09-04T02:33:22.000Z","2050-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"No functional whole brain emulation of a human will exist on Earth before 2050.",20,,"pranomostro","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-10T16:05:53.000Z","2012-09-04T02:33:22.000Z","2050-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"No functional whole brain emulation of a human will exist on Earth before 2050.",46,,"themusicgod1","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T12:54:37.000Z","2012-09-04T02:33:22.000Z","2050-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"No functional whole brain emulation of a human will exist on Earth before 2050.",67,,"Tuxedage","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-03T19:42:21.000Z","2012-09-04T02:33:22.000Z","2050-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"No functional whole brain emulation of a human will exist on Earth before 2050.",70,,"Ken","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-12T16:38:49.000Z","2012-09-04T02:33:22.000Z","2050-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"No functional whole brain emulation of a human will exist on Earth before 2050.",80,,"JoshuaZ","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-04T03:17:00.000Z","2012-09-04T02:33:22.000Z","2050-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"No functional whole brain emulation of a human will exist on Earth before 2050.",75,,"lukeprog","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-04T02:33:22.000Z","2012-09-04T02:33:22.000Z","2050-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"No functional whole brain emulation of a human will exist on Earth before 2050.",75,,"Pablo","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-27T23:19:50.000Z","2012-09-04T02:33:22.000Z","2050-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"The world will end in 2078 to a nuclear holocaust.",0,,"Stephen","Fenrir","I kind of wish the site wouldn't let you enter either 100% or 0%.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T20:17:20.020Z","2020-10-31T15:09:37.891Z","2078-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"The world will end in 2078 to a nuclear holocaust.",0,,"Bruno Parga","Fenrir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-04T10:00:22.855Z","2020-10-31T15:09:37.891Z","2078-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"The world will end in 2078 to a nuclear holocaust.",0,,"PlacidPlatypus","Fenrir","100%? Really?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-03T16:01:37.294Z","2020-10-31T15:09:37.891Z","2078-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"The world will end in 2078 to a nuclear holocaust.",0,,"chemotaxis101","Fenrir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-01T14:13:15.226Z","2020-10-31T15:09:37.891Z","2078-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"The world will end in 2078 to a nuclear holocaust.",0,,"Baeboo","Fenrir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-01T02:14:27.906Z","2020-10-31T15:09:37.891Z","2078-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"The world will end in 2078 to a nuclear holocaust.",100,,"Fenrir","Fenrir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-31T15:09:37.895Z","2020-10-31T15:09:37.891Z","2078-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"The world will end in 2078 to a nuclear holocaust.",0,,"sty.silver","Fenrir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T20:21:15.315Z","2020-10-31T15:09:37.891Z","2078-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"The world will end in 2078 to a nuclear holocaust.",0,,"JoshuaZ","Fenrir","Conjunction fallacy.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-31T18:40:24.452Z","2020-10-31T15:09:37.891Z","2078-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"Superintelligence will be created within 30 years from 7th May 2015",3,,"earfluffy","AlexLundborg",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-11T23:59:04.000Z","2015-05-07T16:15:24.000Z","2045-05-08T00:00:00.000Z"
"Superintelligence will be created within 30 years from 7th May 2015",92,,"themusicgod1","AlexLundborg",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-24T02:55:33.000Z","2015-05-07T16:15:24.000Z","2045-05-08T00:00:00.000Z"
"Superintelligence will be created within 30 years from 7th May 2015",33,,"AlexLundborg","AlexLundborg",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-07T16:15:24.000Z","2015-05-07T16:15:24.000Z","2045-05-08T00:00:00.000Z"
"Superintelligence will be created within 30 years from 7th May 2015",4,,"WilliamKiely","AlexLundborg","I've read Nick Bostrom's book ""Superintelligence"". I think unfriendly AI is a serious concern, but don't think it or any other kind of general superintelligence will arrive this soon.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-08T04:53:09.000Z","2015-05-07T16:15:24.000Z","2045-05-08T00:00:00.000Z"
"Superintelligence will be created within 30 years from 7th May 2015",10,,"timujin","AlexLundborg",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-08T08:54:38.000Z","2015-05-07T16:15:24.000Z","2045-05-08T00:00:00.000Z"
"Superintelligence will be created within 30 years from 7th May 2015",25,,"Unknowns","AlexLundborg",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-09T06:05:37.000Z","2015-05-07T16:15:24.000Z","2045-05-08T00:00:00.000Z"
"Superintelligence will be created within 30 years from 7th May 2015",33,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","AlexLundborg",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-12T04:49:29.000Z","2015-05-07T16:15:24.000Z","2045-05-08T00:00:00.000Z"
"Superintelligence will be created within 30 years from 7th May 2015",40,,"pranomostro","AlexLundborg","That's around 10 years below expert estimates.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T16:18:27.092Z","2015-05-07T16:15:24.000Z","2045-05-08T00:00:00.000Z"
"""Space elevators will make space travel cheap and easy"" --Ahdok; BBC",40,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-24T03:30:23.000Z","2012-01-24T03:30:23.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Space elevators will make space travel cheap and easy"" --Ahdok; BBC",30,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-24T04:15:05.000Z","2012-01-24T03:30:23.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Space elevators will make space travel cheap and easy"" --Ahdok; BBC",65,,"Elithrion","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-01T21:49:31.000Z","2012-01-24T03:30:23.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Space elevators will make space travel cheap and easy"" --Ahdok; BBC",25,,"lavalamp","gwern","Skepticism that our AI overlords will choose to do this.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-03T18:51:15.000Z","2012-01-24T03:30:23.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Space elevators will make space travel cheap and easy"" --Ahdok; BBC",19,,"JoshuaZ","gwern","Timespan is short and there are many other possible ways that cheap space travel might work (e.g. space fountains, launch loops). ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-04T00:36:35.000Z","2012-01-24T03:30:23.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Space elevators will make space travel cheap and easy"" --Ahdok; BBC",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:59:38.000Z","2012-01-24T03:30:23.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Space elevators will make space travel cheap and easy"" --Ahdok; BBC",15,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T00:24:35.201Z","2012-01-24T03:30:23.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Space elevators will make space travel cheap and easy"" --Ahdok; BBC",35,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T05:38:36.665Z","2012-01-24T03:30:23.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Clay Christensen: In 15 Years From Now Half of US Universities May Be in Bankruptcy",10,,"rebellionkid","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-21T20:22:01.000Z","2013-12-14T11:48:26.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Clay Christensen: In 15 Years From Now Half of US Universities May Be in Bankruptcy",25,,"Jayson Virissimo","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-12-17T03:28:16.000Z","2013-12-14T11:48:26.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Clay Christensen: In 15 Years From Now Half of US Universities May Be in Bankruptcy",5,,"Ben Doherty","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-12-20T02:10:45.000Z","2013-12-14T11:48:26.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Clay Christensen: In 15 Years From Now Half of US Universities May Be in Bankruptcy",2,,"lavalamp","RandomThinker","Assuming he meant all at the same time, this seems exceedingly unlikely.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-12-20T22:32:25.000Z","2013-12-14T11:48:26.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Clay Christensen: In 15 Years From Now Half of US Universities May Be in Bankruptcy",5,,"Michael Dickens","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-01T20:29:30.000Z","2013-12-14T11:48:26.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Clay Christensen: In 15 Years From Now Half of US Universities May Be in Bankruptcy",15,,"adbge","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-12-19T22:36:11.000Z","2013-12-14T11:48:26.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Clay Christensen: In 15 Years From Now Half of US Universities May Be in Bankruptcy",10,,"procran","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-12-15T02:13:35.000Z","2013-12-14T11:48:26.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Clay Christensen: In 15 Years From Now Half of US Universities May Be in Bankruptcy",25,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-12-14T11:48:26.000Z","2013-12-14T11:48:26.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Universal basic income will be adopted in at least 50% of the G20 countries within 10 years",5,,"Raahul_Kumar","sflicht","I think Sflicht should edit this prediction to enable the 10 year mark, and also the Nederlands is experimenting with Basic Income. Make it 10% of the G-20 and the prediction will probably come true.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-19T12:20:35.000Z","2015-08-07T01:06:48.000Z","2025-08-08T06:25:00.000Z"
"Universal basic income will be adopted in at least 50% of the G20 countries within 10 years",1,,"Afforess","sflicht","Maybe 1 of the G20 will dabble in it. No chance of 50%.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-17T20:24:41.000Z","2015-08-07T01:06:48.000Z","2025-08-08T06:25:00.000Z"
"Universal basic income will be adopted in at least 50% of the G20 countries within 10 years",2,,"aarongertler","sflicht",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-10T04:28:25.000Z","2015-08-07T01:06:48.000Z","2025-08-08T06:25:00.000Z"
"Universal basic income will be adopted in at least 50% of the G20 countries within 10 years",10,,"Raahul_Kumar","sflicht","You specify an awfully high number! However Basic Income will certainly be more popular in 10 years but 50% is unlikely.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-08T12:50:50.000Z","2015-08-07T01:06:48.000Z","2025-08-08T06:25:00.000Z"
"Universal basic income will be adopted in at least 50% of the G20 countries within 10 years",15,,"JoshuaZ","sflicht",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-10T10:40:08.000Z","2015-08-07T01:06:48.000Z","2025-08-08T06:25:00.000Z"
"Universal basic income will be adopted in at least 50% of the G20 countries within 10 years",3,,"silacoid","sflicht","one can always hope, but it's luck if it's one, and after the first one, the rest will at least wait for 5-10 years to see how it goes before they try it themselves...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-07T13:14:39.000Z","2015-08-07T01:06:48.000Z","2025-08-08T06:25:00.000Z"
"Universal basic income will be adopted in at least 50% of the G20 countries within 10 years",20,,"sflicht","sflicht",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-07T01:06:48.000Z","2015-08-07T01:06:48.000Z","2025-08-08T06:25:00.000Z"
"Universal basic income will be adopted in at least 50% of the G20 countries within 10 years",0,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","sflicht","If it happens, it'll take way longer.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-20T04:19:56.000Z","2015-08-07T01:06:48.000Z","2025-08-08T06:25:00.000Z"
"Universal basic income will be adopted in at least 50% of the G20 countries within 10 years",41,,"themusicgod1","sflicht","20? maybe.  They'd have to start doing trial runs in ~9 countries in 3-4...I don't see it.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-22T22:38:27.000Z","2015-08-07T01:06:48.000Z","2025-08-08T06:25:00.000Z"
"Time travel developed before 2050",1,,"CaelumCodicem","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-06T03:27:51.364Z","2015-09-21T18:48:50.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Time travel developed before 2050",1,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-21T18:48:50.000Z","2015-09-21T18:48:50.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Time travel developed before 2050",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","btrettel","My grandfather lives on happily!",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-24T04:23:24.000Z","2015-09-21T18:48:50.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Time travel developed before 2050",0,,"supinf","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-26T15:52:58.000Z","2015-09-21T18:48:50.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Time travel developed before 2050",1,,"Medea","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-08T20:06:03.000Z","2015-09-21T18:48:50.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Time travel developed before 2050",45,,"themusicgod1","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T18:28:48.000Z","2015-09-21T18:48:50.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Time travel developed before 2050",1,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel","I presume that a wormhole which allows time travel but no further in the past than when the wormhole was created (which is both plausible under GR and would help explain lack of time travelers) would count as time travel. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-21T22:22:52.000Z","2015-09-21T18:48:50.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Time travel developed before 2050",1,,"tstelzig","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-30T20:35:07.000Z","2015-09-21T18:48:50.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity to land on Phobos before landing on Mars",7,,"pranomostro","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:05:43.596Z","2015-07-20T04:04:03.000Z","2090-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity to land on Phobos before landing on Mars",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-20T04:04:03.000Z","2015-07-20T04:04:03.000Z","2090-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity to land on Phobos before landing on Mars",10,,"Medea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-01T22:36:00.000Z","2015-07-20T04:04:03.000Z","2090-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity to land on Phobos before landing on Mars",5,,"espore","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-02T20:58:23.000Z","2015-07-20T04:04:03.000Z","2090-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity to land on Phobos before landing on Mars",5,,"David","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T11:54:28.000Z","2015-07-20T04:04:03.000Z","2090-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity to land on Phobos before landing on Mars",20,,"RandomThinker","InquilineKea","With Joshua.  Cost of leaving is pretty low down on the list of requirements.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-20T22:34:03.000Z","2015-07-20T04:04:03.000Z","2090-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity to land on Phobos before landing on Mars",15,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-20T12:42:11.000Z","2015-07-20T04:04:03.000Z","2090-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity to land on Phobos before landing on Mars",7,,"Baeboo","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T03:17:26.866Z","2015-07-20T04:04:03.000Z","2090-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cultured meat will outsell traditional meat in the US by 2050",11,,"RoryS","RoryS",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-20T17:56:31.000Z","2016-01-20T17:56:31.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cultured meat will outsell traditional meat in the US by 2050",7,,"lalaithion","RoryS",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-21T05:38:59.000Z","2016-01-20T17:56:31.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cultured meat will outsell traditional meat in the US by 2050",20,,"daniel74f","RoryS",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-27T13:37:30.000Z","2016-01-20T17:56:31.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cultured meat will outsell traditional meat in the US by 2050",26,,"JoshuaZ","RoryS",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-27T14:55:05.000Z","2016-01-20T17:56:31.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cultured meat will outsell traditional meat in the US by 2050",5,,"ioannes","RoryS","Many difficullt technical hurdles have been identified, not obvious how they will be overcome: http://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/animal-product-alternatives#Interventions_to_reduce_cost_and_scale-up_production_of_ground_meat",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-25T00:42:26.000Z","2016-01-20T17:56:31.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cultured meat will outsell traditional meat in the US by 2050",85,,"Paul.David.Carr","RoryS",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-29T17:43:25.000Z","2016-01-20T17:56:31.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cultured meat will outsell traditional meat in the US by 2050",55,,"Ben Doherty","RoryS",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-20T18:52:42.000Z","2016-01-20T17:56:31.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cultured meat will outsell traditional meat in the US by 2050",30,,"JesseClifton","RoryS",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-28T23:10:08.000Z","2016-01-20T17:56:31.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Faster-than-light travel developed before 2050",1,,"Josh Holland","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-22T16:17:36.000Z","2015-09-21T21:58:41.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Faster-than-light travel developed before 2050",0,,"supinf","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-26T15:48:55.000Z","2015-09-21T21:58:41.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Faster-than-light travel developed before 2050",1,,"Medea","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-08T19:54:16.000Z","2015-09-21T21:58:41.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Faster-than-light travel developed before 2050",1,,"CaelumCodicem","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-06T03:28:32.620Z","2015-09-21T21:58:41.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Faster-than-light travel developed before 2050",1,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-21T21:58:41.000Z","2015-09-21T21:58:41.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Faster-than-light travel developed before 2050",2,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel","Note that I am assuming faster than light in a vacuum (otherwise I can walk faster than we've been able to slow down light to in some substances). I assign a much higher probability to this than for the time travel one. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-21T22:26:57.000Z","2015-09-21T21:58:41.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Faster-than-light travel developed before 2050",0,,"Josh Holland","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-22T16:17:33.000Z","2015-09-21T21:58:41.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Faster-than-light travel developed before 2050",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-24T04:18:22.000Z","2015-09-21T21:58:41.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Faster-than-light travel developed before 2050",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-24T04:23:48.000Z","2015-09-21T21:58:41.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Faster-than-light travel developed before 2050",7,,"themusicgod1","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-18T20:38:46.000Z","2015-09-21T21:58:41.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"A heat engine which beats the Carnot efficiency will be developed before 2050",0,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-07T19:34:58.000Z","2015-09-07T19:34:58.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"A heat engine which beats the Carnot efficiency will be developed before 2050",3,,"Serge","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-08T12:10:08.000Z","2015-09-07T19:34:58.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"A heat engine which beats the Carnot efficiency will be developed before 2050",0,,"olivia","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-09T10:56:15.000Z","2015-09-07T19:34:58.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"A heat engine which beats the Carnot efficiency will be developed before 2050",1,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-13T23:03:41.000Z","2015-09-07T19:34:58.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"A heat engine which beats the Carnot efficiency will be developed before 2050",20,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","btrettel","Should've read this first: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1308.5935v2.pdf",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-27T06:00:51.000Z","2015-09-07T19:34:58.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"A heat engine which beats the Carnot efficiency will be developed before 2050",10,,"Raahul_Kumar","btrettel","The paper establishes that laws of physics don't forbid it. But only an experiment can prove if this is actually true.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-18T00:48:37.000Z","2015-09-07T19:34:58.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"A heat engine which beats the Carnot efficiency will be developed before 2050",1,,"bshih","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-14T01:44:13.000Z","2015-09-07T19:34:58.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"A heat engine which beats the Carnot efficiency will be developed before 2050",0,,"splorridge","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-13T20:26:21.000Z","2015-09-07T19:34:58.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"A heat engine which beats the Carnot efficiency will be developed before 2050",1,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-09T21:45:14.000Z","2015-09-07T19:34:58.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Spain will default on its debt by 2022.",20,,"kuudes","Raahul_Kumar","compounding the market rate of <4% pa http://dbresearch.com/servlet/reweb2.ReWEB?rwobj=cdscalc2.Start.class&rwnode=DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD%24EM&rwsite=DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD&cdsCountry=CDSC0000000000000145&cdsRecRate=60",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-17T23:24:15.000Z","2016-02-16T09:57:46.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Spain will default on its debt by 2022.",19,,"Temeraire","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-18T00:32:03.000Z","2016-02-16T09:57:46.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Spain will default on its debt by 2022.",24,,"themusicgod1","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-11T04:01:35.000Z","2016-02-16T09:57:46.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Spain will default on its debt by 2022.",1,,"NickN","Raahul_Kumar","Whether a country will default on its debt is more a political question. Pressure within the EU is high, compare the case of Greece https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greece#Debt_crisis_%282010%E2%80%932018%29",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-21T19:08:05.627Z","2016-02-16T09:57:46.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Spain will default on its debt by 2022.",14,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-04T18:25:42.075Z","2016-02-16T09:57:46.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Spain will default on its debt by 2022.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-16T09:57:46.000Z","2016-02-16T09:57:46.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Spain will default on its debt by 2022.",82,,"splorridge","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-16T11:13:06.000Z","2016-02-16T09:57:46.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Spain will default on its debt by 2022.",78,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-17T03:24:30.000Z","2016-02-16T09:57:46.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Spain will default on its debt by 2022.",55,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-17T14:50:16.000Z","2016-02-16T09:57:46.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"The year 2038 problem will be more interesting than y2k",20,,"pranomostro","Adam","It already is more interesting, but I don't think it will be as big a problem.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T23:10:13.000Z","2008-07-18T01:29:18.000Z","2038-07-18T01:29:17.000Z"
"The year 2038 problem will be more interesting than y2k",0,,"deleteyourbrain","Adam",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:08:26.072Z","2008-07-18T01:29:18.000Z","2038-07-18T01:29:17.000Z"
"The year 2038 problem will be more interesting than y2k",80,,"Adam","Adam",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2008-07-18T01:29:18.000Z","2008-07-18T01:29:18.000Z","2038-07-18T01:29:17.000Z"
"The year 2038 problem will be more interesting than y2k",90,,"Glenn","Adam",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2008-07-18T02:55:02.000Z","2008-07-18T01:29:18.000Z","2038-07-18T01:29:17.000Z"
"The year 2038 problem will be more interesting than y2k",10,,"Matt","Adam",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2008-07-18T05:43:44.000Z","2008-07-18T01:29:18.000Z","2038-07-18T01:29:17.000Z"
"The year 2038 problem will be more interesting than y2k",98,,"anonym","Adam",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-17T08:11:47.000Z","2008-07-18T01:29:18.000Z","2038-07-18T01:29:17.000Z"
"The year 2038 problem will be more interesting than y2k",10,,"gwern","Adam","doubt it; the 64-bit switch solves this automatically, and much of the worst software was improved for y2k.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-29T09:29:54.000Z","2008-07-18T01:29:18.000Z","2038-07-18T01:29:17.000Z"
"The year 2038 problem will be more interesting than y2k",7,,"Baeboo","Adam",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-25T04:27:43.000Z","2008-07-18T01:29:18.000Z","2038-07-18T01:29:17.000Z"
"""Bitcoin will be the world’s ‘single currency’ in 10 years""",0,,"Baeboo","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T04:04:23.019Z","2018-03-21T21:11:12.000Z","2028-03-21T21:11:12.000Z"
"""Bitcoin will be the world’s ‘single currency’ in 10 years""",1,,"pranomostro","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T23:04:21.000Z","2018-03-21T21:11:12.000Z","2028-03-21T21:11:12.000Z"
"""Bitcoin will be the world’s ‘single currency’ in 10 years""",3,,"kiimberlie","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-16T19:29:44.000Z","2018-03-21T21:11:12.000Z","2028-03-21T21:11:12.000Z"
"""Bitcoin will be the world’s ‘single currency’ in 10 years""",1,,"davatk","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-26T16:52:49.000Z","2018-03-21T21:11:12.000Z","2028-03-21T21:11:12.000Z"
"""Bitcoin will be the world’s ‘single currency’ in 10 years""",1,,"two2thehead","Ben Doherty","What Michael Dickens said",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-03-29T04:37:21.000Z","2018-03-21T21:11:12.000Z","2028-03-21T21:11:12.000Z"
"""Bitcoin will be the world’s ‘single currency’ in 10 years""",1,,"Michael Dickens","Ben Doherty","these sorts of predictions are great for padding my Brier score",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-03-28T23:53:45.000Z","2018-03-21T21:11:12.000Z","2028-03-21T21:11:12.000Z"
"""Bitcoin will be the world’s ‘single currency’ in 10 years""",1,,"Athrithalix","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-03-22T08:51:27.000Z","2018-03-21T21:11:12.000Z","2028-03-21T21:11:12.000Z"
"""Bitcoin will be the world’s ‘single currency’ in 10 years""",20,,"Ben Doherty","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-03-21T21:11:12.000Z","2018-03-21T21:11:12.000Z","2028-03-21T21:11:12.000Z"
"I predict that humans will land on mars by 2030",25,,"Medea","Bacon1001",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-03-09T10:17:05.000Z","2018-01-25T00:08:03.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I predict that humans will land on mars by 2030",45,,"Matthew_Barnett","Bacon1001",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-03-06T02:56:10.000Z","2018-01-25T00:08:03.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I predict that humans will land on mars by 2030",20,,"iCrown","Bacon1001",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-01-30T22:50:42.000Z","2018-01-25T00:08:03.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I predict that humans will land on mars by 2030",20,,"Michael Dickens","Bacon1001","Been almost 50 years since moon landing. Doubtful that we will get to Mars in 12 more. Not much political will but we do have private actors (SpaceX) so Mars landing is more likely than it was a decade ago.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-01-27T22:23:01.000Z","2018-01-25T00:08:03.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I predict that humans will land on mars by 2030",40,,"Athrithalix","Bacon1001",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-01-25T10:25:40.000Z","2018-01-25T00:08:03.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I predict that humans will land on mars by 2030",50,,"gallerdude","Bacon1001",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-05T02:07:51.000Z","2018-01-25T00:08:03.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I predict that humans will land on mars by 2030",40,,"krazemon","Bacon1001","It's not clear to me that anyone besides Musk will do this and it requires SpaceX continued success. Reframed as such, I'm skeptical that it's more likely than not that SpaceX will get humans to Mars by 2030.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-01-25T00:45:15.000Z","2018-01-25T00:08:03.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I predict that humans will land on mars by 2030",80,,"Bacon1001","Bacon1001",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-01-25T00:08:03.000Z","2018-01-25T00:08:03.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Third World War (WW III) death toll will exceed 2.5 billion people, with another 2 billion to follow 15 years after the war has ended.",75,,"Harbinger1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T01:20:29.000Z","2011-11-17T01:20:29.000Z","2029-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Third World War (WW III) death toll will exceed 2.5 billion people, with another 2 billion to follow 15 years after the war has ended.",5,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1","Well, that's pessimistic. How do you reconcile this with our otherwise optimistic claims about energy and other technologies. The others will be tough if this happens. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T02:00:56.000Z","2011-11-17T01:20:29.000Z","2029-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Third World War (WW III) death toll will exceed 2.5 billion people, with another 2 billion to follow 15 years after the war has ended.",34,,"themusicgod1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-13T15:28:32.000Z","2011-11-17T01:20:29.000Z","2029-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Third World War (WW III) death toll will exceed 2.5 billion people, with another 2 billion to follow 15 years after the war has ended.",0,,"deleteyourbrain","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:28:10.040Z","2011-11-17T01:20:29.000Z","2029-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Third World War (WW III) death toll will exceed 2.5 billion people, with another 2 billion to follow 15 years after the war has ended.",1,,"pranomostro","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:23:25.818Z","2011-11-17T01:20:29.000Z","2029-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Third World War (WW III) death toll will exceed 2.5 billion people, with another 2 billion to follow 15 years after the war has ended.",0,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-13T16:10:51.000Z","2011-11-17T01:20:29.000Z","2029-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Third World War (WW III) death toll will exceed 2.5 billion people, with another 2 billion to follow 15 years after the war has ended.",2,,"gwern","Harbinger1","this would be better expressed as a conditional prediction, since now I have to multiply my probability of WWIII (0.05) against the probability a WWIII would pass this threshold (0.25) and round",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T17:33:56.000Z","2011-11-17T01:20:29.000Z","2029-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Third World War (WW III) death toll will exceed 2.5 billion people, with another 2 billion to follow 15 years after the war has ended.",40,,"lavalamp","Harbinger1","if WWIII happens, I don't expect there to be 2b people left to be killed in the subsequent 15 years",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T17:07:29.000Z","2011-11-17T01:20:29.000Z","2029-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Third World War (WW III) death toll will exceed 2.5 billion people, with another 2 billion to follow 15 years after the war has ended.",1,,"Anubhav","Harbinger1","Conjunction fallacy.... ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T04:12:27.000Z","2011-11-17T01:20:29.000Z","2029-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX to beat Boeing in their informal space race (first boots on Mars).",100,,"wuliwong","Athrithalix",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-28T21:57:03.000Z","2017-12-12T14:36:36.000Z","2022-01-16T23:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX to beat Boeing in their informal space race (first boots on Mars).",65,,"Ben Doherty","Athrithalix",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-16T03:19:39.000Z","2017-12-12T14:36:36.000Z","2022-01-16T23:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX to beat Boeing in their informal space race (first boots on Mars).",76,,"missbethann","Athrithalix",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-13T11:55:32.000Z","2017-12-12T14:36:36.000Z","2022-01-16T23:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX to beat Boeing in their informal space race (first boots on Mars).",85,,"Athrithalix","Athrithalix",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-12T14:36:36.000Z","2017-12-12T14:36:36.000Z","2022-01-16T23:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX to beat Boeing in their informal space race (first boots on Mars).",90,,"davidmanheim","Athrithalix",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-01-03T02:05:46.000Z","2017-12-12T14:36:36.000Z","2022-01-16T23:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX to beat Boeing in their informal space race (first boots on Mars).",87,,"aoeu","Athrithalix",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-23T05:16:08.000Z","2017-12-12T14:36:36.000Z","2022-01-16T23:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX to beat Boeing in their informal space race (first boots on Mars).",70,,"gallerdude","Athrithalix",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-21T19:32:51.000Z","2017-12-12T14:36:36.000Z","2022-01-16T23:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX to beat Boeing in their informal space race (first boots on Mars).",74,,"tjwalters@me.com","Athrithalix",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-13T10:00:06.000Z","2017-12-12T14:36:36.000Z","2022-01-16T23:00:00.000Z"
"Non-condom reversible male contraception approved by the FDA by 2030",60,,"themusicgod1","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-20T21:11:56.000Z","2015-08-23T19:42:30.000Z","2030-01-02T11:00:00.000Z"
"Non-condom reversible male contraception approved by the FDA by 2030",70,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-24T04:03:03.000Z","2015-08-23T19:42:30.000Z","2030-01-02T11:00:00.000Z"
"Non-condom reversible male contraception approved by the FDA by 2030",65,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-23T20:23:35.000Z","2015-08-23T19:42:30.000Z","2030-01-02T11:00:00.000Z"
"Non-condom reversible male contraception approved by the FDA by 2030",99,,"two2thehead","btrettel","Free karma please. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-21T05:41:48.000Z","2015-08-23T19:42:30.000Z","2030-01-02T11:00:00.000Z"
"Non-condom reversible male contraception approved by the FDA by 2030",70,,"Jayson Virissimo","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-03T21:38:01.000Z","2015-08-23T19:42:30.000Z","2030-01-02T11:00:00.000Z"
"Non-condom reversible male contraception approved by the FDA by 2030",70,,"EloiseRosen","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-25T00:35:35.000Z","2015-08-23T19:42:30.000Z","2030-01-02T11:00:00.000Z"
"Non-condom reversible male contraception approved by the FDA by 2030",85,,"HonoreDB","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-24T16:09:53.000Z","2015-08-23T19:42:30.000Z","2030-01-02T11:00:00.000Z"
"Non-condom reversible male contraception approved by the FDA by 2030",70,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-23T19:42:30.000Z","2015-08-23T19:42:30.000Z","2030-01-02T11:00:00.000Z"
"Correcting for education, IQ, income, religion, race, age, and some measure of health, rural people are more likely than urban people to commit the naturalistic fallacy.",50,,"adbge","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-10T01:31:28.000Z","2014-02-09T21:01:53.000Z","2024-02-09T21:01:53.000Z"
"Correcting for education, IQ, income, religion, race, age, and some measure of health, rural people are more likely than urban people to commit the naturalistic fallacy.",50,,"a0c4a123f7","Leo","What if that style of thinking makes you more likely to be, or remain, religious?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-15T23:17:38.000Z","2014-02-09T21:01:53.000Z","2024-02-09T21:01:53.000Z"
"Correcting for education, IQ, income, religion, race, age, and some measure of health, rural people are more likely than urban people to commit the naturalistic fallacy.",80,,"pranomostro","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-02T21:04:59.000Z","2014-02-09T21:01:53.000Z","2024-02-09T21:01:53.000Z"
"Correcting for education, IQ, income, religion, race, age, and some measure of health, rural people are more likely than urban people to commit the naturalistic fallacy.",65,,"Baeboo","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T03:40:38.200Z","2014-02-09T21:01:53.000Z","2024-02-09T21:01:53.000Z"
"Correcting for education, IQ, income, religion, race, age, and some measure of health, rural people are more likely than urban people to commit the naturalistic fallacy.",80,,"Leo","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-09T21:01:53.000Z","2014-02-09T21:01:53.000Z","2024-02-09T21:01:53.000Z"
"Correcting for education, IQ, income, religion, race, age, and some measure of health, rural people are more likely than urban people to commit the naturalistic fallacy.",75,,"Coornail","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-09T21:05:37.000Z","2014-02-09T21:01:53.000Z","2024-02-09T21:01:53.000Z"
"Correcting for education, IQ, income, religion, race, age, and some measure of health, rural people are more likely than urban people to commit the naturalistic fallacy.",20,,"jayk","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-10T04:30:45.000Z","2014-02-09T21:01:53.000Z","2024-02-09T21:01:53.000Z"
"Correcting for education, IQ, income, religion, race, age, and some measure of health, rural people are more likely than urban people to commit the naturalistic fallacy.",56,,"themusicgod1","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-08T18:08:27.000Z","2014-02-09T21:01:53.000Z","2024-02-09T21:01:53.000Z"
"Faster-than-light communication developed before 2050",1,,"CaelumCodicem","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-06T03:29:27.560Z","2015-09-21T23:31:51.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Faster-than-light communication developed before 2050",1,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-21T23:31:51.000Z","2015-09-21T23:31:51.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Faster-than-light communication developed before 2050",3,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-22T00:34:08.000Z","2015-09-21T23:31:51.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Faster-than-light communication developed before 2050",1,,"Josh Holland","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-22T16:17:43.000Z","2015-09-21T23:31:51.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Faster-than-light communication developed before 2050",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","btrettel","To be careful here, I am defining this as information transmitted faster than speed of light.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-24T04:19:11.000Z","2015-09-21T23:31:51.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Faster-than-light communication developed before 2050",1,,"tstelzig","btrettel","My credence for this is basically the same as for FTL travel, because for either one to work my models of the world have to be almost totally wrong. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-30T20:38:09.000Z","2015-09-21T23:31:51.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Faster-than-light communication developed before 2050",3,,"Medea","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-08T19:54:51.000Z","2015-09-21T23:31:51.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Faster-than-light communication developed before 2050",5,,"themusicgod1","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T18:27:27.000Z","2015-09-21T23:31:51.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"By 2040, people will be able to eat as much as they'd like without getting fat ",2,,"Afforess","InquilineKea","Doubtful. There are no indications of any research that might even make this possible.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-19T18:49:58.000Z","2015-08-04T17:03:34.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2040, people will be able to eat as much as they'd like without getting fat ",5,,"ZeitPolizei","InquilineKea","possible ways this could work: 1: creation of delicious food with few calories. 2: a way to regulate food uptake by the digestive system. 3: a way to regulate energy consumption. 2 & 3 likely to have side effects, 1 most likely but impractical.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-06T08:07:28.000Z","2015-08-04T17:03:34.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2040, people will be able to eat as much as they'd like without getting fat ",40,,"timujin","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-05T12:54:03.000Z","2015-08-04T17:03:34.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2040, people will be able to eat as much as they'd like without getting fat ",0,,"Wintermute","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-05T07:08:31.000Z","2015-08-04T17:03:34.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2040, people will be able to eat as much as they'd like without getting fat ",50,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-10T00:16:35.000Z","2015-08-04T17:03:34.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2040, people will be able to eat as much as they'd like without getting fat ",5,,"silacoid","InquilineKea","15 years is too short. Also, in the beginning it will be specific products and not any food.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-05T12:13:13.000Z","2015-08-04T17:03:34.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2040, people will be able to eat as much as they'd like without getting fat ",65,,"HonoreDB","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-04T18:44:14.000Z","2015-08-04T17:03:34.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2040, people will be able to eat as much as they'd like without getting fat ",45,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-04T17:03:34.000Z","2015-08-04T17:03:34.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2022 UTC, any type of thermonuclear device will be detonated inside or within 6 km of Israel, Israeli-occupied territories, or West Bank, killing >= 1000 people in the first 24 hours",1,,"JoshuaZ","bobpage","Good point. Updating per Gwern's observation. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-12T19:17:19.000Z","2011-09-12T03:31:01.000Z","2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2022 UTC, any type of thermonuclear device will be detonated inside or within 6 km of Israel, Israeli-occupied territories, or West Bank, killing >= 1000 people in the first 24 hours",1,,"gwern","bobpage","hm. why *thermo*nuclear bomb? H-bombs are very hard to make even when you've achieved fission, and for the most part, you don't really need h-bombs to terrorize or attack neighboring or near countries.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-12T19:05:14.000Z","2011-09-12T03:31:01.000Z","2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2022 UTC, any type of thermonuclear device will be detonated inside or within 6 km of Israel, Israeli-occupied territories, or West Bank, killing >= 1000 people in the first 24 hours",3,,"JoshuaZ","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-12T12:55:17.000Z","2011-09-12T03:31:01.000Z","2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2022 UTC, any type of thermonuclear device will be detonated inside or within 6 km of Israel, Israeli-occupied territories, or West Bank, killing >= 1000 people in the first 24 hours",10,,"Robert Kosten","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-13T18:09:11.000Z","2011-09-12T03:31:01.000Z","2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2022 UTC, any type of thermonuclear device will be detonated inside or within 6 km of Israel, Israeli-occupied territories, or West Bank, killing >= 1000 people in the first 24 hours",2,,"bobpage","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-12T03:31:01.000Z","2011-09-12T03:31:01.000Z","2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2022 UTC, any type of thermonuclear device will be detonated inside or within 6 km of Israel, Israeli-occupied territories, or West Bank, killing >= 1000 people in the first 24 hours",0,,"faws","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-23T19:37:16.000Z","2011-09-12T03:31:01.000Z","2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2022 UTC, any type of thermonuclear device will be detonated inside or within 6 km of Israel, Israeli-occupied territories, or West Bank, killing >= 1000 people in the first 24 hours",3,,"themusicgod1","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-30T17:35:45.000Z","2011-09-12T03:31:01.000Z","2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2022 UTC, any type of thermonuclear device will be detonated inside or within 6 km of Israel, Israeli-occupied territories, or West Bank, killing >= 1000 people in the first 24 hours",1,,"two2thehead","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-30T18:13:31.000Z","2011-09-12T03:31:01.000Z","2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2022 UTC, any type of thermonuclear device will be detonated inside or within 6 km of Israel, Israeli-occupied territories, or West Bank, killing >= 1000 people in the first 24 hours",14,,"themusicgod1","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T02:36:56.000Z","2011-09-12T03:31:01.000Z","2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2022 UTC, any type of thermonuclear device will be detonated inside or within 6 km of Israel, Israeli-occupied territories, or West Bank, killing >= 1000 people in the first 24 hours",1,,"themusicgod1","bobpage","oh i hit this one too",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T02:37:11.000Z","2011-09-12T03:31:01.000Z","2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2022 UTC, any type of thermonuclear device will be detonated inside or within 6 km of Israel, Israeli-occupied territories, or West Bank, killing >= 1000 people in the first 24 hours",3,,"pranomostro","bobpage","What's the base-rate for global nuclear war?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:44:52.394Z","2011-09-12T03:31:01.000Z","2022-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"social movement with explicit reference to kyriarchy as a tenet commits mass murder (>10,000 people)",0,,"Tenobrus","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-09T03:11:25.000Z","2017-10-18T02:55:35.000Z","2042-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"social movement with explicit reference to kyriarchy as a tenet commits mass murder (>10,000 people)",1,,"Bruno Parga","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-31T15:53:48.000Z","2017-10-18T02:55:35.000Z","2042-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"social movement with explicit reference to kyriarchy as a tenet commits mass murder (>10,000 people)",1,,"bobpage","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-26T14:06:24.000Z","2017-10-18T02:55:35.000Z","2042-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"social movement with explicit reference to kyriarchy as a tenet commits mass murder (>10,000 people)",1,,"aseyfarth","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-26T13:52:18.000Z","2017-10-18T02:55:35.000Z","2042-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"social movement with explicit reference to kyriarchy as a tenet commits mass murder (>10,000 people)",0,,"tedks","themusicgod1","89% is laughable for this. 

I would actually take the embrace of the concept of ""kyriarchy"" as evidence against this, because the concept is only really used by 3rd wave liberal feminists.

In comparison, radical feminists will never use this term.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-20T17:30:35.000Z","2017-10-18T02:55:35.000Z","2042-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"social movement with explicit reference to kyriarchy as a tenet commits mass murder (>10,000 people)",5,,"Athrithalix","themusicgod1","Whoa, this is fairly extreme, you got any sources for your confidence?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-18T10:01:04.000Z","2017-10-18T02:55:35.000Z","2042-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"social movement with explicit reference to kyriarchy as a tenet commits mass murder (>10,000 people)",89,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-18T02:55:35.000Z","2017-10-18T02:55:35.000Z","2042-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"social movement with explicit reference to kyriarchy as a tenet commits mass murder (>10,000 people)",1,,"JoshuaZ","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-19T15:00:33.000Z","2017-10-18T02:55:35.000Z","2042-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"social movement with explicit reference to kyriarchy as a tenet commits mass murder (>10,000 people)",0,,"Bruno Parga","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T12:16:41.797Z","2017-10-18T02:55:35.000Z","2042-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"World governments will ban chemical/Biological/Nuclear weapons after The Third World War (WW III) and make it a penalty of death to all who develop such weapons ... anywhere ... on Earth. ",0,,"Anubhav","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T04:14:17.000Z","2011-11-17T01:24:38.000Z","2040-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"World governments will ban chemical/Biological/Nuclear weapons after The Third World War (WW III) and make it a penalty of death to all who develop such weapons ... anywhere ... on Earth. ",0,,"lavalamp","Harbinger1","Harbinger1, I don't see how all the things you predict can happen in the same universe...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T17:08:38.000Z","2011-11-17T01:24:38.000Z","2040-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"World governments will ban chemical/Biological/Nuclear weapons after The Third World War (WW III) and make it a penalty of death to all who develop such weapons ... anywhere ... on Earth. ",1,,"gwern","Harbinger1","again, conditional probability would be a better formulation; see my just-made comment",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T17:34:32.000Z","2011-11-17T01:24:38.000Z","2040-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"World governments will ban chemical/Biological/Nuclear weapons after The Third World War (WW III) and make it a penalty of death to all who develop such weapons ... anywhere ... on Earth. ",1,,"pranomostro","Harbinger1","Base rate is already low, since global coorditation is quite hard, combined with conjunction.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:22:56.610Z","2011-11-17T01:24:38.000Z","2040-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"World governments will ban chemical/Biological/Nuclear weapons after The Third World War (WW III) and make it a penalty of death to all who develop such weapons ... anywhere ... on Earth. ",0,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T21:14:12.220Z","2011-11-17T01:24:38.000Z","2040-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"World governments will ban chemical/Biological/Nuclear weapons after The Third World War (WW III) and make it a penalty of death to all who develop such weapons ... anywhere ... on Earth. ",0,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1","Yeah, ok. Anubhav is right. Let's just go with not going to happen. Way too many conjunctions. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T04:17:51.000Z","2011-11-17T01:24:38.000Z","2040-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"World governments will ban chemical/Biological/Nuclear weapons after The Third World War (WW III) and make it a penalty of death to all who develop such weapons ... anywhere ... on Earth. ",2,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1","Conjunction fallacy/narrative plausibility bias. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T02:11:08.000Z","2011-11-17T01:24:38.000Z","2040-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"World governments will ban chemical/Biological/Nuclear weapons after The Third World War (WW III) and make it a penalty of death to all who develop such weapons ... anywhere ... on Earth. ",90,,"Harbinger1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T01:24:38.000Z","2011-11-17T01:24:38.000Z","2040-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"World governments will ban chemical/Biological/Nuclear weapons after The Third World War (WW III) and make it a penalty of death to all who develop such weapons ... anywhere ... on Earth. ",0,,"deleteyourbrain","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:23:05.365Z","2011-11-17T01:24:38.000Z","2040-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"World governments will ban chemical/Biological/Nuclear weapons after The Third World War (WW III) and make it a penalty of death to all who develop such weapons ... anywhere ... on Earth. ",0,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T19:03:09.421Z","2011-11-17T01:24:38.000Z","2040-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"World governments will ban chemical/Biological/Nuclear weapons after The Third World War (WW III) and make it a penalty of death to all who develop such weapons ... anywhere ... on Earth. ",10,,"themusicgod1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-13T15:28:52.000Z","2011-11-17T01:24:38.000Z","2040-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humans will be sent to Mars",54,,"JoshuaZ","espore",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-14T00:02:24.000Z","2015-08-02T20:50:02.000Z","2035-10-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humans will be sent to Mars",55,,"JoshuaZ","espore","See http://predictionbook.com/predictions/87577 for 2030, That prediction also has a list of related predictions for other dates in the comments. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-06T13:20:02.000Z","2015-08-02T20:50:02.000Z","2035-10-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humans will be sent to Mars",75,,"taryneast","espore","Assuming this is ""by 2035""",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-06T09:00:07.000Z","2015-08-02T20:50:02.000Z","2035-10-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humans will be sent to Mars",55,,"amadeu","espore",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-07T20:36:52.144Z","2015-08-02T20:50:02.000Z","2035-10-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humans will be sent to Mars",58,,"themusicgod1","espore",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-30T18:31:23.000Z","2015-08-02T20:50:02.000Z","2035-10-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humans will be sent to Mars",40,,"NathanMcKnight","espore",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-07T21:28:15.000Z","2015-08-02T20:50:02.000Z","2035-10-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humans will be sent to Mars",60,,"sflicht","espore",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-25T19:09:08.000Z","2015-08-02T20:50:02.000Z","2035-10-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humans will be sent to Mars",70,,"HonoreDB","espore",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-04T18:46:41.000Z","2015-08-02T20:50:02.000Z","2035-10-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humans will be sent to Mars",70,,"espore","espore",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-02T20:50:03.000Z","2015-08-02T20:50:02.000Z","2035-10-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humans will be sent to Mars",56,,"JoshuaZ","espore",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T20:11:39.480Z","2015-08-02T20:50:02.000Z","2035-10-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"World will eliminate malaria by 2030. ",80,,"PlacidPlatypus","Raahul_Kumar","In light of looser definition.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-24T18:31:33.000Z","2016-02-14T02:17:16.000Z","2030-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"World will eliminate malaria by 2030. ",85,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar","Malaria vaccine.
http://www.who.int/immunization/research/development/malaria_vaccine_qa/en/",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-16T06:31:57.000Z","2016-02-14T02:17:16.000Z","2030-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"World will eliminate malaria by 2030. ",84,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-14T17:44:58.000Z","2016-02-14T02:17:16.000Z","2030-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"World will eliminate malaria by 2030. ",80,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-14T02:17:16.000Z","2016-02-14T02:17:16.000Z","2030-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"World will eliminate malaria by 2030. ",60,,"predictiontaffer","Raahul_Kumar","search for COVID vaccine helps motivate new ways to search for Malaria vaccine.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-22T11:49:52.502Z","2016-02-14T02:17:16.000Z","2030-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"World will eliminate malaria by 2030. ",90,,"wizzwizz4","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-22T13:45:37.134Z","2016-02-14T02:17:16.000Z","2030-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"World will eliminate malaria by 2030. ",60,,"NickN","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-19T05:54:19.881Z","2016-02-14T02:17:16.000Z","2030-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"World will eliminate malaria by 2030. ",89,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar","Per loose definition. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-24T21:48:12.000Z","2016-02-14T02:17:16.000Z","2030-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"World will eliminate malaria by 2030. ",70,,"PlacidPlatypus","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-23T17:03:11.000Z","2016-02-14T02:17:16.000Z","2030-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"World will eliminate malaria by 2030. ",60,,"mrmrpotatohead","Raahul_Kumar","I think the odds are decent this can happen in the next 14 years.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-23T08:35:46.000Z","2016-02-14T02:17:16.000Z","2030-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"World will eliminate malaria by 2030. ",83,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-14T16:57:53.000Z","2016-02-14T02:17:16.000Z","2030-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Internet use reaches 5 billion worldwide' in 2020",50,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-10T00:37:07.222Z","2010-10-23T00:40:36.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Internet use reaches 5 billion worldwide' in 2020",80,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-09T19:34:29.503Z","2010-10-23T00:40:36.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Internet use reaches 5 billion worldwide' in 2020",80,,"anonym","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-27T20:31:14.000Z","2010-10-23T00:40:36.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Internet use reaches 5 billion worldwide' in 2020",70,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-23T00:40:38.000Z","2010-10-23T00:40:36.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Internet use reaches 5 billion worldwide' in 2020",91,,"Grognor","gwern","I almost cannot see that not happening",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-06T20:27:41.000Z","2010-10-23T00:40:36.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Internet use reaches 5 billion worldwide' in 2020",66,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T01:49:25.000Z","2010-10-23T00:40:36.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Internet use reaches 5 billion worldwide' in 2020",90,,"bobpage","gwern","http://www.internetlivestats.com/internet-users/",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-15T10:40:37.000Z","2010-10-23T00:40:36.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Internet use reaches 5 billion worldwide' in 2020",70,,"two2thehead","gwern","Let's play it safe.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-15T14:33:16.000Z","2010-10-23T00:40:36.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Internet use reaches 5 billion worldwide' in 2020",66,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-09T19:35:36.680Z","2010-10-23T00:40:36.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Internet use reaches 5 billion worldwide' in 2020",55,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-09T19:46:41.458Z","2010-10-23T00:40:36.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Worldwide biometric ID system will go online by 2022, unknown to the standard publics awareness.",2,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-01T19:47:46.000Z","2011-11-17T01:43:48.000Z","2022-12-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Worldwide biometric ID system will go online by 2022, unknown to the standard publics awareness.",1,,"Tuxedage","Harbinger1","2022 is far too soon.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-01T20:06:35.000Z","2011-11-17T01:43:48.000Z","2022-12-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Worldwide biometric ID system will go online by 2022, unknown to the standard publics awareness.",0,,"Qiaochu","Harbinger1","""Worldwide."" Agree with JoshuaZ. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-02T03:26:13.000Z","2011-11-17T01:43:48.000Z","2022-12-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Worldwide biometric ID system will go online by 2022, unknown to the standard publics awareness.",47,,"themusicgod1","Harbinger1","not for lack of effort.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T21:53:08.000Z","2011-11-17T01:43:48.000Z","2022-12-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Worldwide biometric ID system will go online by 2022, unknown to the standard publics awareness.",3,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:47:47.000Z","2011-11-17T01:43:48.000Z","2022-12-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Worldwide biometric ID system will go online by 2022, unknown to the standard publics awareness.",0,,"pranomostro","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:12:55.362Z","2011-11-17T01:43:48.000Z","2022-12-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Worldwide biometric ID system will go online by 2022, unknown to the standard publics awareness.",2,,"pranomostro","Harbinger1","Resolution date should be further in the future, since we (by resolution criteria) won't know that such a system is in place.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:14:07.787Z","2011-11-17T01:43:48.000Z","2022-12-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Worldwide biometric ID system will go online by 2022, unknown to the standard publics awareness.",80,,"Harbinger1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T01:43:48.000Z","2011-11-17T01:43:48.000Z","2022-12-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Worldwide biometric ID system will go online by 2022, unknown to the standard publics awareness.",1,,"gwern","Harbinger1","*worldwide*? as in, a single unified system where Russian officials can easily look up Thai IDs or Chinese look up American IDs?? no way.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T17:52:19.000Z","2011-11-17T01:43:48.000Z","2022-12-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Worldwide biometric ID system will go online by 2022, unknown to the standard publics awareness.",0,,"deleteyourbrain","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:27:34.423Z","2011-11-17T01:43:48.000Z","2022-12-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Contact Sports (football,boxing, kick boxing, most martial arts) will be outlawed in 60% of the world by 2025 due to a medical discovery. ",1,,"Anubhav","Harbinger1","1% is probably too optimistic... ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T04:31:50.000Z","2011-11-17T01:47:06.000Z","2025-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Contact Sports (football,boxing, kick boxing, most martial arts) will be outlawed in 60% of the world by 2025 due to a medical discovery. ",0,,"deleteyourbrain","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:22:19.590Z","2011-11-17T01:47:06.000Z","2025-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Contact Sports (football,boxing, kick boxing, most martial arts) will be outlawed in 60% of the world by 2025 due to a medical discovery. ",75,,"Harbinger1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T01:47:06.000Z","2011-11-17T01:47:06.000Z","2025-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Contact Sports (football,boxing, kick boxing, most martial arts) will be outlawed in 60% of the world by 2025 due to a medical discovery. ",2,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1","We already have a lot of evidence that boxing and American football create substantial brain damage. We have deeply emotional examples (Muhammad Ali). Nothing's happening. And 60% is a lot. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T01:56:40.000Z","2011-11-17T01:47:06.000Z","2025-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Contact Sports (football,boxing, kick boxing, most martial arts) will be outlawed in 60% of the world by 2025 due to a medical discovery. ",1,,"lavalamp","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T16:55:03.000Z","2011-11-17T01:47:06.000Z","2025-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Contact Sports (football,boxing, kick boxing, most martial arts) will be outlawed in 60% of the world by 2025 due to a medical discovery. ",1,,"gwern","Harbinger1","60% of the world can't even agree on tobacco or alcohol",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T17:45:38.000Z","2011-11-17T01:47:06.000Z","2025-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Contact Sports (football,boxing, kick boxing, most martial arts) will be outlawed in 60% of the world by 2025 due to a medical discovery. ",36,,"themusicgod1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T21:53:31.000Z","2011-11-17T01:47:06.000Z","2025-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Contact Sports (football,boxing, kick boxing, most martial arts) will be outlawed in 60% of the world by 2025 due to a medical discovery. ",1,,"pranomostro","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:21:27.023Z","2011-11-17T01:47:06.000Z","2025-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be 1000 people living in space habitats before there are 1000 people living on Mars",49,,"themusicgod1","moridinamael",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-17T00:16:53.000Z","2015-08-17T20:16:51.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be 1000 people living in space habitats before there are 1000 people living on Mars",95,,"PipFoweraker","moridinamael",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-06T20:43:48.000Z","2015-08-17T20:16:51.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be 1000 people living in space habitats before there are 1000 people living on Mars",76,,"JoshuaZ","moridinamael",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T19:10:31.989Z","2015-08-17T20:16:51.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be 1000 people living in space habitats before there are 1000 people living on Mars",95,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","moridinamael",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-10T03:55:09.000Z","2015-08-17T20:16:51.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be 1000 people living in space habitats before there are 1000 people living on Mars",75,,"platypus42","moridinamael","Good one. Heard this recently on TimFerriss podcast from an expert: ""It makes no sense to escape this gravity well called earth, only to fall into the next gravity well [Mars]"". ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-29T10:39:23.000Z","2015-08-17T20:16:51.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be 1000 people living in space habitats before there are 1000 people living on Mars",50,,"sflicht","moridinamael",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-26T11:52:39.000Z","2015-08-17T20:16:51.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be 1000 people living in space habitats before there are 1000 people living on Mars",98,,"silacoid","moridinamael",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-26T11:29:03.000Z","2015-08-17T20:16:51.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be 1000 people living in space habitats before there are 1000 people living on Mars",75,,"JoshuaZ","moridinamael",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-17T20:31:34.000Z","2015-08-17T20:16:51.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be 1000 people living in space habitats before there are 1000 people living on Mars",80,,"moridinamael","moridinamael",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-17T20:16:51.000Z","2015-08-17T20:16:51.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2100 it's obvious to the average human that (1) Global warming is true and (2) it's actually a good thing: Resulting in a better climate then we have had in recorded history. A stable Wet-Sahara/Warm-Siberia/No Rainforest scenario.",40,,"pranomostro","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-09T19:55:47.810Z","2010-10-17T06:51:40.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2100 it's obvious to the average human that (1) Global warming is true and (2) it's actually a good thing: Resulting in a better climate then we have had in recorded history. A stable Wet-Sahara/Warm-Siberia/No Rainforest scenario.",38,,"themusicgod1","TheScholar","the survivors probably have some inkling that the situation was to their benefit, since they were the ones who survived i suppose",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T01:42:28.000Z","2010-10-17T06:51:40.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2100 it's obvious to the average human that (1) Global warming is true and (2) it's actually a good thing: Resulting in a better climate then we have had in recorded history. A stable Wet-Sahara/Warm-Siberia/No Rainforest scenario.",85,,"TheScholar","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-03-17T08:19:29.000Z","2010-10-17T06:51:40.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2100 it's obvious to the average human that (1) Global warming is true and (2) it's actually a good thing: Resulting in a better climate then we have had in recorded history. A stable Wet-Sahara/Warm-Siberia/No Rainforest scenario.",75,,"TheScholar","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-17T06:51:40.000Z","2010-10-17T06:51:40.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2100 it's obvious to the average human that (1) Global warming is true and (2) it's actually a good thing: Resulting in a better climate then we have had in recorded history. A stable Wet-Sahara/Warm-Siberia/No Rainforest scenario.",60,,"gwern","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-17T16:31:47.000Z","2010-10-17T06:51:40.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2100 it's obvious to the average human that (1) Global warming is true and (2) it's actually a good thing: Resulting in a better climate then we have had in recorded history. A stable Wet-Sahara/Warm-Siberia/No Rainforest scenario.",10,,"Nic_Smith","TheScholar","My estimate of the probability that such a thing is obvious to the average human in 2100, not my estimate that it's actually true (somewhat higher)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-12-01T02:34:58.000Z","2010-10-17T06:51:40.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2100 it's obvious to the average human that (1) Global warming is true and (2) it's actually a good thing: Resulting in a better climate then we have had in recorded history. A stable Wet-Sahara/Warm-Siberia/No Rainforest scenario.",15,,"JoshuaZ","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-26T19:14:22.000Z","2010-10-17T06:51:40.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2100 it's obvious to the average human that (1) Global warming is true and (2) it's actually a good thing: Resulting in a better climate then we have had in recorded history. A stable Wet-Sahara/Warm-Siberia/No Rainforest scenario.",80,,"TheScholar","TheScholar","Change is normal on this planet, nearly all life forms will adapt, some will disappear, some new variations will emerge. This has all happened before…",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-29T20:47:44.000Z","2010-10-17T06:51:40.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2100 it's obvious to the average human that (1) Global warming is true and (2) it's actually a good thing: Resulting in a better climate then we have had in recorded history. A stable Wet-Sahara/Warm-Siberia/No Rainforest scenario.",60,,"kallman","TheScholar","Hate to be in support of killing millions of lifeforms with habitat destruction... but what's new, I guess.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-20T06:09:24.000Z","2010-10-17T06:51:40.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2100 it's obvious to the average human that (1) Global warming is true and (2) it's actually a good thing: Resulting in a better climate then we have had in recorded history. A stable Wet-Sahara/Warm-Siberia/No Rainforest scenario.",22,,"JoshuaZ","TheScholar","Updating per themusicgod1's reasoning. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T02:20:41.000Z","2010-10-17T06:51:40.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2100 it's obvious to the average human that (1) Global warming is true and (2) it's actually a good thing: Resulting in a better climate then we have had in recorded history. A stable Wet-Sahara/Warm-Siberia/No Rainforest scenario.",44,,"Baeboo","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-10T00:59:42.683Z","2010-10-17T06:51:40.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A restaurant will be serving cultured meat by 2021",87,,"lukefreeman","lukefreeman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-08-28T03:18:16.000Z","2018-08-28T03:18:16.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A restaurant will be serving cultured meat by 2021",60,,"phi","lukefreeman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-05T22:25:55.000Z","2018-08-28T03:18:16.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A restaurant will be serving cultured meat by 2021",80,,"abyyskit","lukefreeman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-22T09:21:08.000Z","2018-08-28T03:18:16.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A restaurant will be serving cultured meat by 2021",27,,"marianne","lukefreeman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-10-27T20:17:39.000Z","2018-08-28T03:18:16.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A restaurant will be serving cultured meat by 2021",70,,"pranomostro","lukefreeman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-02T20:34:37.000Z","2018-08-28T03:18:16.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A restaurant will be serving cultured meat by 2021",85,,"avi","lukefreeman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-09T17:40:55.000Z","2018-08-28T03:18:16.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A restaurant will be serving cultured meat by 2021",75,,"Michael Dickens","lukefreeman","Related: https://predictionbook.com/predictions/180435",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-10-06T04:23:30.000Z","2018-08-28T03:18:16.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A restaurant will be serving cultured meat by 2021",70,,"lnfinity","lukefreeman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-10-27T20:10:40.000Z","2018-08-28T03:18:16.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Somewhere before 2050 abortion on request and/or for socio-economic factors will be illegal worldwide.”",1,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T16:54:26.314Z","2010-08-02T07:02:29.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Somewhere before 2050 abortion on request and/or for socio-economic factors will be illegal worldwide.”",1,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T13:36:10.379Z","2010-08-02T07:02:29.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Somewhere before 2050 abortion on request and/or for socio-economic factors will be illegal worldwide.”",4,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:31:55.000Z","2010-08-02T07:02:29.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Somewhere before 2050 abortion on request and/or for socio-economic factors will be illegal worldwide.”",5,,"bobpage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-21T18:18:23.000Z","2010-08-02T07:02:29.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Somewhere before 2050 abortion on request and/or for socio-economic factors will be illegal worldwide.”",1,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T18:39:21.695Z","2010-08-02T07:02:29.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Somewhere before 2050 abortion on request and/or for socio-economic factors will be illegal worldwide.”",1,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T01:54:08.000Z","2010-08-02T07:02:29.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Somewhere before 2050 abortion on request and/or for socio-economic factors will be illegal worldwide.”",1,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T05:46:57.000Z","2010-08-02T07:02:29.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Somewhere before 2050 abortion on request and/or for socio-economic factors will be illegal worldwide.”",1,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern","I could see a large swing in sentiment against abortion (like slavery in the 19th century), but ""worldwide"" is too extreme.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-21T10:10:19.000Z","2010-08-02T07:02:29.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Somewhere before 2050 abortion on request and/or for socio-economic factors will be illegal worldwide.”",2,,"Pavitra","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-03T06:05:03.000Z","2010-08-02T07:02:29.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Somewhere before 2050 abortion on request and/or for socio-economic factors will be illegal worldwide.”",0,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-02T07:02:29.000Z","2010-08-02T07:02:29.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States drug scheduling system will be dramatically revised by 2025.",0,,"deleteyourbrain","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:36:02.295Z","2011-11-11T22:31:17.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States drug scheduling system will be dramatically revised by 2025.",10,,"pranomostro","NathanMcKnight","Not happened yet.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:46:37.813Z","2011-11-11T22:31:17.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States drug scheduling system will be dramatically revised by 2025.",47,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T21:08:47.000Z","2011-11-11T22:31:17.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States drug scheduling system will be dramatically revised by 2025.",15,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-13T17:08:28.000Z","2011-11-11T22:31:17.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States drug scheduling system will be dramatically revised by 2025.",15,,"Gedusa","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-12T16:14:07.000Z","2011-11-11T22:31:17.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States drug scheduling system will be dramatically revised by 2025.",20,,"gwern","NathanMcKnight","this seems like wishful thinking",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-11T23:18:00.000Z","2011-11-11T22:31:17.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States drug scheduling system will be dramatically revised by 2025.",35,,"lavalamp","NathanMcKnight","assuming ""dramatic"" means more than just legalizing marijuana",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-11T23:16:33.000Z","2011-11-11T22:31:17.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States drug scheduling system will be dramatically revised by 2025.",75,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-11T22:31:17.000Z","2011-11-11T22:31:17.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, there is a company with >$100M net profit whose core product critically depends on blockchain.",20,,"Elly-Immeska","Michael Dickens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-01T06:27:48.000Z","2018-12-01T01:33:47.000Z","2021-12-31T20:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, there is a company with >$100M net profit whose core product critically depends on blockchain.",12,,"aarongertler","Michael Dickens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-06T04:09:36.333Z","2018-12-01T01:33:47.000Z","2021-12-31T20:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, there is a company with >$100M net profit whose core product critically depends on blockchain.",0,,"MultiplyByZer0","Michael Dickens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-30T03:00:40.029Z","2018-12-01T01:33:47.000Z","2021-12-31T20:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, there is a company with >$100M net profit whose core product critically depends on blockchain.",10,,"Michael Dickens","Michael Dickens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-01T01:33:47.000Z","2018-12-01T01:33:47.000Z","2021-12-31T20:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, there is a company with >$100M net profit whose core product critically depends on blockchain.",30,,"Baeboo","Michael Dickens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-01T05:09:39.000Z","2018-12-01T01:33:47.000Z","2021-12-31T20:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, there is a company with >$100M net profit whose core product critically depends on blockchain.",40,,"pranomostro","Michael Dickens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-01T12:22:00.000Z","2018-12-01T01:33:47.000Z","2021-12-31T20:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, there is a company with >$100M net profit whose core product critically depends on blockchain.",15,,"jazzsolo","Michael Dickens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-03T19:23:19.090Z","2018-12-01T01:33:47.000Z","2021-12-31T20:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, there is a company with >$100M net profit whose core product critically depends on blockchain.",8,,"Bruno Parga","Michael Dickens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-03T00:48:27.852Z","2018-12-01T01:33:47.000Z","2021-12-31T20:00:00.000Z"
"I will have a gf at some point",98,,"playablecharacter","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-23T15:34:56.000Z","2017-03-11T22:27:58.000Z","3001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will have a gf at some point",92,,"npcuck","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-16T22:45:19.000Z","2017-03-11T22:27:58.000Z","3001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will have a gf at some point",52,,"themusicgod1","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-20T23:31:07.000Z","2017-03-11T22:27:58.000Z","3001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will have a gf at some point",96,,"playablecharacter","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-20T20:11:52.000Z","2017-03-11T22:27:58.000Z","3001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will have a gf at some point",45,,"tedks","playablecharacter","Predicting one's relationships on predictionbook seems like a poor indicator of relationship acquirement ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-20T19:44:05.000Z","2017-03-11T22:27:58.000Z","3001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will have a gf at some point",90,,"bobpage","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-14T06:28:19.000Z","2017-03-11T22:27:58.000Z","3001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will have a gf at some point",85,,"ioannes","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-13T17:05:10.000Z","2017-03-11T22:27:58.000Z","3001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will have a gf at some point",80,,"Vipul Naik","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-11T22:30:23.000Z","2017-03-11T22:27:58.000Z","3001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will have a gf at some point",80,,"Issa Rice","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-11T22:28:53.000Z","2017-03-11T22:27:58.000Z","3001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will have a gf at some point",97,,"playablecharacter","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-11T22:27:58.000Z","2017-03-11T22:27:58.000Z","3001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polio in the wild eliminated by 2025 --Tachi Yamada",55,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:14:41.921Z","2011-01-03T15:34:10.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polio in the wild eliminated by 2025 --Tachi Yamada",75,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-04T13:39:57.000Z","2011-01-03T15:34:10.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polio in the wild eliminated by 2025 --Tachi Yamada",80,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-12T13:59:55.000Z","2011-01-03T15:34:10.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polio in the wild eliminated by 2025 --Tachi Yamada",30,,"Leo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-25T12:39:16.000Z","2011-01-03T15:34:10.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polio in the wild eliminated by 2025 --Tachi Yamada",70,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-03T15:34:10.000Z","2011-01-03T15:34:10.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polio in the wild eliminated by 2025 --Tachi Yamada",50,,"gwern","gwern","revise based on the criticisms in http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/01/health/01polio.html",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-17T02:46:39.000Z","2011-01-03T15:34:10.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polio in the wild eliminated by 2025 --Tachi Yamada",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T03:09:36.000Z","2011-01-03T15:34:10.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polio in the wild eliminated by 2025 --Tachi Yamada",50,,"Anubhav","gwern","I find it amusing that the NIH guy flat-out admits that Gates knows better.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-28T03:24:47.000Z","2011-01-03T15:34:10.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polio in the wild eliminated by 2025 --Tachi Yamada",60,,"regex","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-22T05:10:58.000Z","2011-01-03T15:34:10.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will TechCrunch report a startup raising $150M or more on Fri 11/20?",3,"NO","Ben L","Amanda N","","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the articles on this page at 9am on Sun 11/22: https://techcrunch.com/startups/","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:55:56.670Z","2020-11-13T18:35:41.888Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will TechCrunch report a startup raising $150M or more on Fri 11/20?",85,"NO","William S","Amanda N","Seems like 7 articles like this have come out in the last week","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the articles on this page at 9am on Sun 11/22: https://techcrunch.com/startups/","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:56:06.412Z","2020-11-13T18:35:41.888Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will TechCrunch report a startup raising $150M or more on Fri 11/20?",30,"NO","Dilhan P","Amanda N","Seems unlikely - I counted only 2 in the past week?","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the articles on this page at 9am on Sun 11/22: https://techcrunch.com/startups/","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-14T17:30:55.720Z","2020-11-13T18:35:41.888Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will TechCrunch report a startup raising $150M or more on Fri 11/20?",12,"NO","Abigail T","Amanda N","6 relevant reports (but 5 days with a report) in the last 45 days.","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the articles on this page at 9am on Sun 11/22: https://techcrunch.com/startups/","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-14T23:43:43.919Z","2020-11-13T18:35:41.888Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will TechCrunch report a startup raising $150M or more on Fri 11/20?",10,"NO","mattvdm","Amanda N","","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the articles on this page at 9am on Sun 11/22: https://techcrunch.com/startups/","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T10:37:47.085Z","2020-11-13T18:35:41.888Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will TechCrunch report a startup raising $150M or more on Fri 11/20?",33,"NO","Will B","Amanda N","","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the articles on this page at 9am on Sun 11/22: https://techcrunch.com/startups/","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T00:48:05.916Z","2020-11-13T18:35:41.888Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will TechCrunch report a startup raising $150M or more on Fri 11/20?",30,"NO","marcin.kowrygo","Amanda N","","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the articles on this page at 9am on Sun 11/22: https://techcrunch.com/startups/","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T17:19:17.117Z","2020-11-13T18:35:41.888Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will TechCrunch report a startup raising $150M or more on Fri 11/20?",25,"NO","marcin.kowrygo","Amanda N","","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the articles on this page at 9am on Sun 11/22: https://techcrunch.com/startups/","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T18:02:18.661Z","2020-11-13T18:35:41.888Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will TechCrunch report a startup raising $150M or more on Fri 11/20?",20,"NO","Dilhan P","Amanda N","","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the articles on this page at 9am on Sun 11/22: https://techcrunch.com/startups/","Rapid Resolution Week 1","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T22:54:59.749Z","2020-11-13T18:35:41.888Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"What probability do you assign to the possibility of a human level AGI to self-modify its way up to massive superhuman intelligence within a matter of days?",50,,"Nils Nilsson","Alexander Kruel","Nilsson's explanation: ""I'll assume that you mean sometime during this century, and that my ""employment test"" is the measure of superhuman intelligence.""","In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it. The formalized question was: P(superhuman intelligence within days | human-level AI running at human-level speed equipped with a 100 GB Internet connection) = ?.","ai-interviews,AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"What probability do you assign to the possibility of a human level AGI to self-modify its way up to massive superhuman intelligence within a matter of days?",1,,"Brandon Rohrer","Alexander Kruel","Brandon's exact prediction was < 1%. ","In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it. The formalized question was: P(superhuman intelligence within days | human-level AI running at human-level speed equipped with a 100 GB Internet connection) = ?.","ai-interviews,AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"What probability do you assign to the possibility of a human level AGI to self-modify its way up to massive superhuman intelligence within a matter of days?",0.0001,,"Tim Finin","Alexander Kruel","Note: Tim did not specify whether he was indicating '0.0001%' or '0.0001, i.e. 0.01%'","In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it. The formalized question was: P(superhuman intelligence within days | human-level AI running at human-level speed equipped with a 100 GB Internet connection) = ?.","ai-interviews,AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"What probability do you assign to the possibility of a human level AGI to self-modify its way up to massive superhuman intelligence within a matter of days?",0,,"Michael Littman","Alexander Kruel","Michael's exact response was: ""epsilon (essentially zero)"".","In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it. The formalized question was: P(superhuman intelligence within days | human-level AI running at human-level speed equipped with a 100 GB Internet connection) = ?.","ai-interviews,AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"What probability do you assign to the possibility of a human level AGI to self-modify its way up to massive superhuman intelligence within a matter of days?",50,,"Larry Wasserman","Alexander Kruel",,"In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it. The formalized question was: P(superhuman intelligence within days | human-level AI running at human-level speed equipped with a 100 GB Internet connection) = ?.","ai-interviews,AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"What probability do you assign to the possibility of a human level AGI to self-modify its way up to massive superhuman intelligence within a matter of days?",0,,"Pat Hayes","Alexander Kruel",,"In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it. The formalized question was: P(superhuman intelligence within days | human-level AI running at human-level speed equipped with a 100 GB Internet connection) = ?.","ai-interviews,AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"What probability do you assign to the possibility of a human level AGI to self-modify its way up to massive superhuman intelligence within a matter of days?",0,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Alexander Kruel","5","In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it. The formalized question was: P(superhuman intelligence within days | human-level AI running at human-level speed equipped with a 100 GB Internet connection) = ?.","ai-interviews,AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T09:00:21.944Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"What probability do you assign to the possibility of a human level AGI to self-modify its way up to massive superhuman intelligence within a matter of days?",0,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Alexander Kruel","5%","In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it. The formalized question was: P(superhuman intelligence within days | human-level AI running at human-level speed equipped with a 100 GB Internet connection) = ?.","ai-interviews,AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T09:00:26.423Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"What probability do you assign to the possibility of a human level AGI to self-modify its way up to massive superhuman intelligence within a matter of days?",5,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Alexander Kruel","","In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it. The formalized question was: P(superhuman intelligence within days | human-level AI running at human-level speed equipped with a 100 GB Internet connection) = ?.","ai-interviews,AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T09:00:34.061Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Kim Jong-Un alive and in power on 2021/1/1",80,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""Buy to 80%. Tenures aren’t that short in such systems, and he’s not that old. This seems super optimistic.""",,"politics,ssc","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Kim Jong-Un alive and in power on 2021/1/1",60,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"politics,ssc","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Kim Jong-Un alive and in power on 2021/1/1",80,,"Bucky","Scott Alexander",,,"politics,ssc","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Kim Jong-Un alive and in power on 2021/1/1",90,,"mattvdm","Scott Alexander","",,"politics,ssc","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T10:04:42.029Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Kim Jong-Un alive and in power on 2021/1/1",90,,"Tyle S","Scott Alexander","",,"politics,ssc","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T15:56:07.485Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Kim Jong-Un alive and in power on 2021/1/1",80,,"nathanpmyoung","Scott Alexander","",,"politics,ssc","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-05T21:25:39.187Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Kim Jong-Un alive and in power on 2021/1/1",75,,"fzeidler","Scott Alexander","",,"politics,ssc","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-04T12:59:19.977Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, best scientific consensus ends up being that hydroxychloroquine was significantly effective",10,,"mattvdm","Scott Alexander","",,"covid-19,ssc","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T10:12:25.306Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, best scientific consensus ends up being that hydroxychloroquine was significantly effective",20,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"covid-19,ssc","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, best scientific consensus ends up being that hydroxychloroquine was significantly effective",60,,"Bucky","Scott Alexander",,,"covid-19,ssc","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, best scientific consensus ends up being that hydroxychloroquine was significantly effective",10,,"Tyle S","Scott Alexander","",,"covid-19,ssc","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T15:56:55.896Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, best scientific consensus ends up being that hydroxychloroquine was significantly effective",15,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""Sell to 15% or so, while noting that I think the chance of it actually being effective is much higher than that. I am cynical enough to think that scientific consensus is looking to declare this ineffective, or at least avoid declaring it effective, because of who would stand to benefit. There’s also a good chance that it stays ‘we don’t know’ indefinitely. The reason I think it has a higher chance of actually being effective is anecdotal based on people I am aware of who have used it.""",,"covid-19,ssc","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, best scientific consensus ends up being that hydroxychloroquine was significantly effective",10,,"nathanpmyoung","Scott Alexander","",,"covid-19,ssc","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-05T21:26:43.973Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, best scientific consensus ends up being that hydroxychloroquine was significantly effective",20,,"fzeidler","Scott Alexander","",,"covid-19,ssc","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-04T12:58:51.394Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""In 2108, an independent, sentient artificial intelligence will exist as a corporation, both providing its services as well as making all financial and strategic decisions.""",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-29T18:47:46.000Z","2010-07-29T18:47:46.000Z","2108-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In 2108, an independent, sentient artificial intelligence will exist as a corporation, both providing its services as well as making all financial and strategic decisions.""",55,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-17T15:30:13.000Z","2010-07-29T18:47:46.000Z","2108-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In 2108, an independent, sentient artificial intelligence will exist as a corporation, both providing its services as well as making all financial and strategic decisions.""",60,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T08:56:02.000Z","2010-07-29T18:47:46.000Z","2108-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In 2108, an independent, sentient artificial intelligence will exist as a corporation, both providing its services as well as making all financial and strategic decisions.""",94,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T23:11:37.000Z","2010-07-29T18:47:46.000Z","2108-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In 2108, an independent, sentient artificial intelligence will exist as a corporation, both providing its services as well as making all financial and strategic decisions.""",70,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-15T21:49:16.272Z","2010-07-29T18:47:46.000Z","2108-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In 2108, an independent, sentient artificial intelligence will exist as a corporation, both providing its services as well as making all financial and strategic decisions.""",50,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-16T02:01:20.611Z","2010-07-29T18:47:46.000Z","2108-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In 2108, an independent, sentient artificial intelligence will exist as a corporation, both providing its services as well as making all financial and strategic decisions.""",100,,"deleteyourbrain","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:16:14.566Z","2010-07-29T18:47:46.000Z","2108-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the year 2150, unless an existential risk intervenes, there will be an incorporated or sovereign entity identifying itself as the USA or its legal heir.",30,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T03:00:07.388Z","2010-07-30T05:52:29.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the year 2150, unless an existential risk intervenes, there will be an incorporated or sovereign entity identifying itself as the USA or its legal heir.",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T05:52:29.000Z","2010-07-30T05:52:29.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the year 2150, unless an existential risk intervenes, there will be an incorporated or sovereign entity identifying itself as the USA or its legal heir.",70,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-24T18:10:58.000Z","2010-07-30T05:52:29.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the year 2150, unless an existential risk intervenes, there will be an incorporated or sovereign entity identifying itself as the USA or its legal heir.",70,,"WilliamKiely","gwern","Beware of scope insensitivity. Didn't put much thought into my 70%.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-29T01:10:54.000Z","2010-07-30T05:52:29.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the year 2150, unless an existential risk intervenes, there will be an incorporated or sovereign entity identifying itself as the USA or its legal heir.",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T23:41:32.000Z","2010-07-30T05:52:29.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the year 2150, unless an existential risk intervenes, there will be an incorporated or sovereign entity identifying itself as the USA or its legal heir.",72,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:08:39.000Z","2010-07-30T05:52:29.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the year 2150, unless an existential risk intervenes, there will be an incorporated or sovereign entity identifying itself as the USA or its legal heir.",10,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T08:50:37.000Z","2010-07-30T05:52:29.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the year 2150, unless an existential risk intervenes, there will be an incorporated or sovereign entity identifying itself as the USA or its legal heir.",66,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:28:39.642Z","2010-07-30T05:52:29.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the year 2150, unless an existential risk intervenes, there will be an incorporated or sovereign entity identifying itself as the USA or its legal heir.",69,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T19:21:22.660Z","2010-07-30T05:52:29.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the year 2150, unless an existential risk intervenes, there will be an incorporated or sovereign entity identifying itself as the USA or its legal heir.",40,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-15T03:08:32.001Z","2010-07-30T05:52:29.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025 at least 50% of all U.S. citizens residing within the United States will have some form of technology embedded in their bodies for the purpose of tracking and identification.”",20,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T05:56:12.000Z","2010-07-30T05:56:12.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025 at least 50% of all U.S. citizens residing within the United States will have some form of technology embedded in their bodies for the purpose of tracking and identification.”",7,,"Grognor","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-06T19:52:13.000Z","2010-07-30T05:56:12.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025 at least 50% of all U.S. citizens residing within the United States will have some form of technology embedded in their bodies for the purpose of tracking and identification.”",5,,"RandomThinker","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-25T15:01:18.000Z","2010-07-30T05:56:12.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025 at least 50% of all U.S. citizens residing within the United States will have some form of technology embedded in their bodies for the purpose of tracking and identification.”",15,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:30:06.862Z","2010-07-30T05:56:12.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025 at least 50% of all U.S. citizens residing within the United States will have some form of technology embedded in their bodies for the purpose of tracking and identification.”",15,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-25T14:57:49.000Z","2010-07-30T05:56:12.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025 at least 50% of all U.S. citizens residing within the United States will have some form of technology embedded in their bodies for the purpose of tracking and identification.”",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T23:36:51.000Z","2010-07-30T05:56:12.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025 at least 50% of all U.S. citizens residing within the United States will have some form of technology embedded in their bodies for the purpose of tracking and identification.”",20,,"regex","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-22T04:53:45.000Z","2010-07-30T05:56:12.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“China will be considered a Christian nation, with at least 33% of its residents identifying themselves as Christians, by the year 2085.”",2,,"bobpage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-16T04:50:30.000Z","2010-07-30T06:13:23.000Z","2085-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“China will be considered a Christian nation, with at least 33% of its residents identifying themselves as Christians, by the year 2085.”",20,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T06:13:24.000Z","2010-07-30T06:13:23.000Z","2085-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“China will be considered a Christian nation, with at least 33% of its residents identifying themselves as Christians, by the year 2085.”",5,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-24T18:07:23.000Z","2010-07-30T06:13:23.000Z","2085-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“China will be considered a Christian nation, with at least 33% of its residents identifying themselves as Christians, by the year 2085.”",5,,"Emanuel Rylke","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-29T15:37:30.000Z","2010-07-30T06:13:23.000Z","2085-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“China will be considered a Christian nation, with at least 33% of its residents identifying themselves as Christians, by the year 2085.”",2,,"seifip","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-14T10:01:19.000Z","2010-07-30T06:13:23.000Z","2085-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“China will be considered a Christian nation, with at least 33% of its residents identifying themselves as Christians, by the year 2085.”",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T23:41:03.000Z","2010-07-30T06:13:23.000Z","2085-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“China will be considered a Christian nation, with at least 33% of its residents identifying themselves as Christians, by the year 2085.”",10,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:32:10.808Z","2010-07-30T06:13:23.000Z","2085-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the end of 2024 there will be a Single Global Currency managed by a Global Central Bank within a Global Monetary Union.(3-G's) This currency will be legal tender in countries which comprise at least 51% of the world's GDP.”",4,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-31T09:24:13.000Z","2010-07-31T09:24:13.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the end of 2024 there will be a Single Global Currency managed by a Global Central Bank within a Global Monetary Union.(3-G's) This currency will be legal tender in countries which comprise at least 51% of the world's GDP.”",1,,"Larks","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-30T02:13:21.000Z","2010-07-31T09:24:13.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the end of 2024 there will be a Single Global Currency managed by a Global Central Bank within a Global Monetary Union.(3-G's) This currency will be legal tender in countries which comprise at least 51% of the world's GDP.”",3,,"Ken","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-12T23:27:25.000Z","2010-07-31T09:24:13.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the end of 2024 there will be a Single Global Currency managed by a Global Central Bank within a Global Monetary Union.(3-G's) This currency will be legal tender in countries which comprise at least 51% of the world's GDP.”",5,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-13T00:39:42.000Z","2010-07-31T09:24:13.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the end of 2024 there will be a Single Global Currency managed by a Global Central Bank within a Global Monetary Union.(3-G's) This currency will be legal tender in countries which comprise at least 51% of the world's GDP.”",0,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-27T07:18:07.710Z","2010-07-31T09:24:13.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the end of 2024 there will be a Single Global Currency managed by a Global Central Bank within a Global Monetary Union.(3-G's) This currency will be legal tender in countries which comprise at least 51% of the world's GDP.”",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T23:57:03.000Z","2010-07-31T09:24:13.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the end of 2024 there will be a Single Global Currency managed by a Global Central Bank within a Global Monetary Union.(3-G's) This currency will be legal tender in countries which comprise at least 51% of the world's GDP.”",2,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:42:18.454Z","2010-07-31T09:24:13.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the end of 2024 there will be a Single Global Currency managed by a Global Central Bank within a Global Monetary Union.(3-G's) This currency will be legal tender in countries which comprise at least 51% of the world's GDP.”",1,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-15T02:51:30.207Z","2010-07-31T09:24:13.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, more than 50% of desktop computers in the world will be running an open-source operating system.”",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-01T13:04:38.000Z","2010-08-01T13:04:38.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, more than 50% of desktop computers in the world will be running an open-source operating system.”",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:06:34.000Z","2010-08-01T13:04:38.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, more than 50% of desktop computers in the world will be running an open-source operating system.”",35,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-15T02:47:12.473Z","2010-08-01T13:04:38.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, more than 50% of desktop computers in the world will be running an open-source operating system.”",66,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern","How ""open"" does an OS have to be to be open source? Is Android ""open source""?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T11:32:35.000Z","2010-08-01T13:04:38.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, more than 50% of desktop computers in the world will be running an open-source operating system.”",20,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:38:11.066Z","2010-08-01T13:04:38.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, more than 50% of desktop computers in the world will be running an open-source operating system.”",100,,"deleteyourbrain","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T01:54:46.714Z","2010-08-01T13:04:38.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, more than 50% of desktop computers in the world will be running an open-source operating system.”",35,,"Pablo","gwern","It will happen eventually, but not likely by 2025.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T16:20:01.000Z","2010-08-01T13:04:38.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that our civilization will survive until at least 2100.”",80,,"Anubhav","gwern","Reevaluated probability of apocalypse.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T13:01:06.000Z","2010-08-01T13:06:46.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that our civilization will survive until at least 2100.”",70,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-01T13:06:46.000Z","2010-08-01T13:06:46.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that our civilization will survive until at least 2100.”",60,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T09:00:22.000Z","2010-08-01T13:06:46.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that our civilization will survive until at least 2100.”",75,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T13:09:07.000Z","2010-08-01T13:06:46.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that our civilization will survive until at least 2100.”",90,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-11T01:07:15.000Z","2010-08-01T13:06:46.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that our civilization will survive until at least 2100.”",85,,"Isaac","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-17T20:22:57.000Z","2010-08-01T13:06:46.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that our civilization will survive until at least 2100.”",92,,"JoshuaZ","gwern","More confident. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-17T23:25:47.000Z","2010-08-01T13:06:46.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that our civilization will survive until at least 2100.”",45,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:17:19.255Z","2010-08-01T13:06:46.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that our civilization will survive until at least 2100.”",100,,"deleteyourbrain","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T01:55:00.044Z","2010-08-01T13:06:46.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“The nation with the highest (nominal) gdp in the world in 2025 will be China.”",65,,"DaFranker","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-12-12T02:52:49.000Z","2010-08-02T06:51:38.000Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“The nation with the highest (nominal) gdp in the world in 2025 will be China.”",55,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-19T13:24:04.000Z","2010-08-02T06:51:38.000Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“The nation with the highest (nominal) gdp in the world in 2025 will be China.”",80,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-04T03:21:26.233Z","2010-08-02T06:51:38.000Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“The nation with the highest (nominal) gdp in the world in 2025 will be China.”",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-02T06:51:38.000Z","2010-08-02T06:51:38.000Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“The nation with the highest (nominal) gdp in the world in 2025 will be China.”",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-19T08:38:46.000Z","2010-08-02T06:51:38.000Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“The nation with the highest (nominal) gdp in the world in 2025 will be China.”",45,,"themusicgod1","gwern","not far off though.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-10T00:09:13.000Z","2010-08-02T06:51:38.000Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“The nation with the highest (nominal) gdp in the world in 2025 will be China.”",40,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T13:37:28.227Z","2010-08-02T06:51:38.000Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Texting by thinking' in 2020",0,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-27T12:23:00.432Z","2010-10-23T00:41:14.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Texting by thinking' in 2020",5,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-23T00:41:16.000Z","2010-10-23T00:41:14.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Texting by thinking' in 2020",5,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-09T19:31:17.651Z","2010-10-23T00:41:14.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Texting by thinking' in 2020",0,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-12T00:55:40.684Z","2010-10-23T00:41:14.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Texting by thinking' in 2020",0,,"NickN","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-17T01:13:49.869Z","2010-10-23T00:41:14.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Texting by thinking' in 2020",1,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-27T07:32:02.088Z","2010-10-23T00:41:14.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Texting by thinking' in 2020",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T01:53:20.000Z","2010-10-23T00:41:14.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Texting by thinking' in 2020",5,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-10T00:19:13.640Z","2010-10-23T00:41:14.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Texting by thinking' in 2020",4,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-10T00:19:19.527Z","2010-10-23T00:41:14.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2045 The totally self-contained mobile home (envisaged almost a century ago by Buckminster Fuller) is perfected. Any additional carbon needed from food synthesis is obtained by extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.' --Arthur C. Clarke",0,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-26T16:39:14.000Z","2010-10-26T16:39:13.000Z","2046-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2045 The totally self-contained mobile home (envisaged almost a century ago by Buckminster Fuller) is perfected. Any additional carbon needed from food synthesis is obtained by extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.' --Arthur C. Clarke",0,,"kallman","gwern","stupid doing the opposite of what I mean to",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-22T23:12:16.000Z","2010-10-26T16:39:13.000Z","2046-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2045 The totally self-contained mobile home (envisaged almost a century ago by Buckminster Fuller) is perfected. Any additional carbon needed from food synthesis is obtained by extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.' --Arthur C. Clarke",1,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-22T19:18:53.000Z","2010-10-26T16:39:13.000Z","2046-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2045 The totally self-contained mobile home (envisaged almost a century ago by Buckminster Fuller) is perfected. Any additional carbon needed from food synthesis is obtained by extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.' --Arthur C. Clarke",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T02:18:16.000Z","2010-10-26T16:39:13.000Z","2046-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2045 The totally self-contained mobile home (envisaged almost a century ago by Buckminster Fuller) is perfected. Any additional carbon needed from food synthesis is obtained by extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.' --Arthur C. Clarke",1,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:47:57.455Z","2010-10-26T16:39:13.000Z","2046-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2045 The totally self-contained mobile home (envisaged almost a century ago by Buckminster Fuller) is perfected. Any additional carbon needed from food synthesis is obtained by extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.' --Arthur C. Clarke",100,,"kallman","gwern","Replication has to be enormously energy-expensive. Spaceman just eats the meat he brought with him to mars.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-22T23:11:54.000Z","2010-10-26T16:39:13.000Z","2046-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2045 The totally self-contained mobile home (envisaged almost a century ago by Buckminster Fuller) is perfected. Any additional carbon needed from food synthesis is obtained by extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.' --Arthur C. Clarke",50,,"gimpf","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-12-12T18:14:22.000Z","2010-10-26T16:39:13.000Z","2046-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2045 The totally self-contained mobile home (envisaged almost a century ago by Buckminster Fuller) is perfected. Any additional carbon needed from food synthesis is obtained by extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.' --Arthur C. Clarke",15,,"PipFoweraker","gwern","Clarke makes no reference as to location or size of home. I choose to interpret that as allowing modular space habitation.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-06T20:45:35.000Z","2010-10-26T16:39:13.000Z","2046-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States of Africa is established by 2026",1,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-27T12:23:20.109Z","2010-11-11T22:02:52.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States of Africa is established by 2026",1,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-27T07:34:49.722Z","2010-11-11T22:02:52.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States of Africa is established by 2026",5,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-11T22:02:52.000Z","2010-11-11T22:02:52.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States of Africa is established by 2026",5,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T02:38:17.000Z","2010-11-11T22:02:52.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States of Africa is established by 2026",3,,"gimpf","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-12-12T18:17:49.000Z","2010-11-11T22:02:52.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States of Africa is established by 2026",10,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:31:18.385Z","2010-11-11T22:02:52.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States of Africa is established by 2026",2,,"amadeu","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-07T19:30:58.373Z","2010-11-11T22:02:52.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States of Africa is established by 2026",2,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-09T01:29:28.653Z","2010-11-11T22:02:52.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"AIDS vaccine by 2035 --Tachi Yamada",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-03T15:33:02.000Z","2011-01-03T15:33:02.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"AIDS vaccine by 2035 --Tachi Yamada",80,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-03T23:13:26.000Z","2011-01-03T15:33:02.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"AIDS vaccine by 2035 --Tachi Yamada",45,,"kallman","gwern","Maybe for certain cases. But for everyone? I doubt it. Complicated disease.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-04T09:21:51.000Z","2011-01-03T15:33:02.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"AIDS vaccine by 2035 --Tachi Yamada",70,,"gimpf","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-09T12:04:43.000Z","2011-01-03T15:33:02.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"AIDS vaccine by 2035 --Tachi Yamada",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T03:55:42.000Z","2011-01-03T15:33:02.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"AIDS vaccine by 2035 --Tachi Yamada",44,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T13:58:25.000Z","2011-01-03T15:33:02.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"AIDS vaccine by 2035 --Tachi Yamada",70,,"regex","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-22T05:11:49.000Z","2011-01-03T15:33:02.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"AIDS vaccine by 2035 --Tachi Yamada",45,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:15:05.157Z","2011-01-03T15:33:02.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"http://www.longbets.org/601 will be a broken link in 11 years --Jeremy Keith",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-02-19T07:16:19.000Z","2011-02-19T07:16:16.000Z","2022-02-18T12:00:00.000Z"
"http://www.longbets.org/601 will be a broken link in 11 years --Jeremy Keith",55,,"bobpage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-02-19T07:22:27.000Z","2011-02-19T07:16:16.000Z","2022-02-18T12:00:00.000Z"
"http://www.longbets.org/601 will be a broken link in 11 years --Jeremy Keith",15,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-03T13:58:18.000Z","2011-02-19T07:16:16.000Z","2022-02-18T12:00:00.000Z"
"http://www.longbets.org/601 will be a broken link in 11 years --Jeremy Keith",5,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:27:50.466Z","2011-02-19T07:16:16.000Z","2022-02-18T12:00:00.000Z"
"http://www.longbets.org/601 will be a broken link in 11 years --Jeremy Keith",3,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T03:12:20.333Z","2011-02-19T07:16:16.000Z","2022-02-18T12:00:00.000Z"
"http://www.longbets.org/601 will be a broken link in 11 years --Jeremy Keith",10,,"TheScholar","gwern","On the condition that the internet, the web, dns, etc is still around in 11 years...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-03-17T08:47:35.000Z","2011-02-19T07:16:16.000Z","2022-02-18T12:00:00.000Z"
"http://www.longbets.org/601 will be a broken link in 11 years --Jeremy Keith",12,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T03:21:54.000Z","2011-02-19T07:16:16.000Z","2022-02-18T12:00:00.000Z"
"http://www.longbets.org/601 will be a broken link in 11 years --Jeremy Keith",11,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T12:32:20.000Z","2011-02-19T07:16:16.000Z","2022-02-18T12:00:00.000Z"
"'bitcoins will be unobtainable or obtainable for less than 1 cents (2010 dollars)/btc on 24 February 2021' --ivan",80,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-02-24T02:41:25.000Z","2011-02-24T02:41:14.000Z","2021-02-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"'bitcoins will be unobtainable or obtainable for less than 1 cents (2010 dollars)/btc on 24 February 2021' --ivan",99,,"bobpage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-02-24T02:42:35.000Z","2011-02-24T02:41:14.000Z","2021-02-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"'bitcoins will be unobtainable or obtainable for less than 1 cents (2010 dollars)/btc on 24 February 2021' --ivan",95,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-02-24T02:43:04.000Z","2011-02-24T02:41:14.000Z","2021-02-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"'bitcoins will be unobtainable or obtainable for less than 1 cents (2010 dollars)/btc on 24 February 2021' --ivan",95,,"papermachine","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-13T22:03:39.000Z","2011-02-24T02:41:14.000Z","2021-02-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"'bitcoins will be unobtainable or obtainable for less than 1 cents (2010 dollars)/btc on 24 February 2021' --ivan",88,,"lavalamp","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-10T23:34:15.000Z","2011-02-24T02:41:14.000Z","2021-02-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"'bitcoins will be unobtainable or obtainable for less than 1 cents (2010 dollars)/btc on 24 February 2021' --ivan",12,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:27:24.876Z","2011-02-24T02:41:14.000Z","2021-02-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"'bitcoins will be unobtainable or obtainable for less than 1 cents (2010 dollars)/btc on 24 February 2021' --ivan",98,,"bobpage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-06-11T01:47:25.000Z","2011-02-24T02:41:14.000Z","2021-02-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"'bitcoins will be unobtainable or obtainable for less than 1 cents (2010 dollars)/btc on 24 February 2021' --ivan",98,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-30T06:44:10.000Z","2011-02-24T02:41:14.000Z","2021-02-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"'bitcoins will be unobtainable or obtainable for less than 1 cents (2010 dollars)/btc on 24 February 2021' --ivan",17,,"themusicgod1","gwern","I'm not sure what I was thinking. Hedge?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-06T02:53:01.000Z","2011-02-24T02:41:14.000Z","2021-02-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"'bitcoins will be unobtainable or obtainable for less than 1 cents (2010 dollars)/btc on 24 February 2021' --ivan",0,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T03:08:50.768Z","2011-02-24T02:41:14.000Z","2021-02-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"'The final collapse of the European Union'",30,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-06-07T19:16:03.000Z","2011-06-07T19:16:03.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'The final collapse of the European Union'",25,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-06-07T21:28:55.000Z","2011-06-07T19:16:03.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'The final collapse of the European Union'",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-08T21:00:52.000Z","2011-06-07T19:16:03.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'The final collapse of the European Union'",31,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-08T22:09:54.000Z","2011-06-07T19:16:03.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'The final collapse of the European Union'",70,,"TheScholar","gwern","I don't believe the EU can (in the long run) counteract the growing intolerance and nationalism in most conservative parties.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-06-16T14:17:46.000Z","2011-06-07T19:16:03.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'The final collapse of the European Union'",80,,"najdorf","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-06T22:47:44.000Z","2011-06-07T19:16:03.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'The final collapse of the European Union'",30,,"Tuxedage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-07T01:32:56.000Z","2011-06-07T19:16:03.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'The final collapse of the European Union'",25,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:06:19.135Z","2011-06-07T19:16:03.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050 the US per capita GDP will have declined to 90% or less of its 2004 value. ",20,,"Konkvistador","Konkvistador",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-21T21:20:16.000Z","2011-07-21T21:20:15.000Z","2051-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050 the US per capita GDP will have declined to 90% or less of its 2004 value. ",10,,"JoshuaZ","Konkvistador",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-22T03:44:43.000Z","2011-07-21T21:20:15.000Z","2051-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050 the US per capita GDP will have declined to 90% or less of its 2004 value. ",5,,"roxton","Konkvistador","My estimate would be different if we could somehow factor out increased productivity.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-19T22:47:59.000Z","2011-07-21T21:20:15.000Z","2051-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050 the US per capita GDP will have declined to 90% or less of its 2004 value. ",53,,"themusicgod1","Konkvistador",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T01:21:15.000Z","2011-07-21T21:20:15.000Z","2051-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050 the US per capita GDP will have declined to 90% or less of its 2004 value. ",8,,"pranomostro","Konkvistador",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T19:58:01.368Z","2011-07-21T21:20:15.000Z","2051-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050 the US per capita GDP will have declined to 90% or less of its 2004 value. ",5,,"gwern","Konkvistador",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-24T18:33:19.000Z","2011-07-21T21:20:15.000Z","2051-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050 the US per capita GDP will have declined to 90% or less of its 2004 value. ",11,,"Ben Doherty","Konkvistador","is this adjusted (real terms)? I'd imagine that by 2150 the numbers might look very different if there are ems on the scene",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-27T04:32:27.000Z","2011-07-21T21:20:15.000Z","2051-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"India GDP less than either China or USA in 2050 --HSBC",70,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-13T00:46:16.000Z","2011-08-13T00:46:16.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"India GDP less than either China or USA in 2050 --HSBC",60,,"seifip","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-14T22:16:29.000Z","2011-08-13T00:46:16.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"India GDP less than either China or USA in 2050 --HSBC",63,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T01:45:15.000Z","2011-08-13T00:46:16.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"India GDP less than either China or USA in 2050 --HSBC",80,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-03T22:03:36.846Z","2011-08-13T00:46:16.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"India GDP less than either China or USA in 2050 --HSBC",85,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-04T03:34:45.515Z","2011-08-13T00:46:16.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"India GDP less than either China or USA in 2050 --HSBC",83,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-04T03:34:55.812Z","2011-08-13T00:46:16.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"India GDP less than either China or USA in 2050 --HSBC",75,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T23:37:26.000Z","2011-08-13T00:46:16.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"India GDP less than either China or USA in 2050 --HSBC",100,,"ChineseToTheBone","gwern","SUPERPOWER 2020",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-28T15:10:11.000Z","2011-08-13T00:46:16.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"India GDP less than either China or USA in 2050 --HSBC",70,,"deleteyourbrain","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-01T20:59:16.052Z","2011-08-13T00:46:16.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Relationship between P and BPP resolved by 2045",70,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-16T15:22:29.000Z","2011-08-16T15:22:29.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Relationship between P and BPP resolved by 2045",75,,"gwern","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-16T17:25:24.000Z","2011-08-16T15:22:29.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Relationship between P and BPP resolved by 2045",80,,"anonym","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-23T06:13:40.000Z","2011-08-16T15:22:29.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Relationship between P and BPP resolved by 2045",70,,"bt_uytya","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-01T05:33:24.000Z","2011-08-16T15:22:29.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Relationship between P and BPP resolved by 2045",63,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T01:50:40.000Z","2011-08-16T15:22:29.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Relationship between P and BPP resolved by 2045",65,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-03T21:54:28.231Z","2011-08-16T15:22:29.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Relationship between P and BPP resolved by 2045",60,,"Baeboo","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-04T04:29:15.537Z","2011-08-16T15:22:29.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A state will try to secede from the US in the next 25 years",20,,"NickN","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-24T16:22:27.332Z","2011-08-29T14:38:12.000Z","2036-08-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"A state will try to secede from the US in the next 25 years",8,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-29T14:38:13.000Z","2011-08-29T14:38:12.000Z","2036-08-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"A state will try to secede from the US in the next 25 years",5,,"gwern","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-30T21:48:14.000Z","2011-08-29T14:38:12.000Z","2036-08-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"A state will try to secede from the US in the next 25 years",24,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T02:03:13.000Z","2011-08-29T14:38:12.000Z","2036-08-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"A state will try to secede from the US in the next 25 years",10,,"Jack","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-31T02:37:22.000Z","2011-08-29T14:38:12.000Z","2036-08-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"A state will try to secede from the US in the next 25 years",8,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-03T21:45:16.659Z","2011-08-29T14:38:12.000Z","2036-08-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"A state will try to secede from the US in the next 25 years",10,,"amadeu","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-07T20:04:43.047Z","2011-08-29T14:38:12.000Z","2036-08-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"No euthanasia coaster will be built in the next 30 years. (See http://news.discovery.com/tech/euthanasia-sucicide-rollercoaster-ride-110919.html )",90,,"fergus","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-21T22:46:01.000Z","2011-09-21T20:50:19.000Z","2041-09-21T12:00:00.000Z"
"No euthanasia coaster will be built in the next 30 years. (See http://news.discovery.com/tech/euthanasia-sucicide-rollercoaster-ride-110919.html )",95,,"gwern","JoshuaZ","always hard to guess what a crazy millionaire or artist might do",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-21T23:25:55.000Z","2011-09-21T20:50:19.000Z","2041-09-21T12:00:00.000Z"
"No euthanasia coaster will be built in the next 30 years. (See http://news.discovery.com/tech/euthanasia-sucicide-rollercoaster-ride-110919.html )",50,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T02:49:53.000Z","2011-09-21T20:50:19.000Z","2041-09-21T12:00:00.000Z"
"No euthanasia coaster will be built in the next 30 years. (See http://news.discovery.com/tech/euthanasia-sucicide-rollercoaster-ride-110919.html )",98,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:30:49.584Z","2011-09-21T20:50:19.000Z","2041-09-21T12:00:00.000Z"
"No euthanasia coaster will be built in the next 30 years. (See http://news.discovery.com/tech/euthanasia-sucicide-rollercoaster-ride-110919.html )",85,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-21T20:50:23.000Z","2011-09-21T20:50:19.000Z","2041-09-21T12:00:00.000Z"
"No euthanasia coaster will be built in the next 30 years. (See http://news.discovery.com/tech/euthanasia-sucicide-rollercoaster-ride-110919.html )",95,,"roxton","JoshuaZ","Heh.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-21T22:31:47.000Z","2011-09-21T20:50:19.000Z","2041-09-21T12:00:00.000Z"
"No euthanasia coaster will be built in the next 30 years. (See http://news.discovery.com/tech/euthanasia-sucicide-rollercoaster-ride-110919.html )",98,,"faws","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-24T16:25:30.000Z","2011-09-21T20:50:19.000Z","2041-09-21T12:00:00.000Z"
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Michael Clear and this is known before 2060",0,,"bobpage","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T19:45:23.000Z","2011-10-10T19:45:23.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Michael Clear and this is known before 2060",1,,"Jayson Virissimo","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-11T06:21:39.000Z","2011-10-10T19:45:23.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Michael Clear and this is known before 2060",1,,"Anubhav","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-11T08:05:12.000Z","2011-10-10T19:45:23.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Michael Clear and this is known before 2060",4,,"themusicgod1","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T04:19:37.000Z","2011-10-10T19:45:23.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Michael Clear and this is known before 2060",1,,"gwern","bobpage","IMO, the base-rate for a random cryptographer / grad being satoshi is one in a few thousand, but the NYer does raise the probability a little...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T19:49:18.000Z","2011-10-10T19:45:23.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Michael Clear and this is known before 2060",10,,"Robert Kosten","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-11T15:40:21.000Z","2011-10-10T19:45:23.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Michael Clear and this is known before 2060",0,,"gwern","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-15T19:30:20.000Z","2011-10-10T19:45:23.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Michael Clear and this is known before 2060",1,,"pranomostro","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:25:15.153Z","2011-10-10T19:45:23.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The weekly newspaper The Economist  will be in continuous publication until at least 2043.",0,,"deleteyourbrain","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:36:49.697Z","2011-11-10T08:09:35.000Z","2043-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The weekly newspaper The Economist  will be in continuous publication until at least 2043.",60,,"Jayson Virissimo","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-10T08:09:35.000Z","2011-11-10T08:09:35.000Z","2043-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The weekly newspaper The Economist  will be in continuous publication until at least 2043.",40,,"chemotaxis101","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-10T14:26:32.000Z","2011-11-10T08:09:35.000Z","2043-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The weekly newspaper The Economist  will be in continuous publication until at least 2043.",65,,"gwern","Jayson Virissimo","got a good track record so far and is a strong brand - it's in an unusually profitable period right now, apparently, which bodes well",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-10T17:33:14.000Z","2011-11-10T08:09:35.000Z","2043-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The weekly newspaper The Economist  will be in continuous publication until at least 2043.",55,,"JoshuaZ","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-10T18:54:13.000Z","2011-11-10T08:09:35.000Z","2043-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The weekly newspaper The Economist  will be in continuous publication until at least 2043.",53,,"themusicgod1","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T05:22:29.000Z","2011-11-10T08:09:35.000Z","2043-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The weekly newspaper The Economist  will be in continuous publication until at least 2043.",55,,"pranomostro","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:49:15.229Z","2011-11-10T08:09:35.000Z","2043-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2036 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125",61,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-16T14:34:07.000Z","2011-11-16T14:34:07.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2036 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125",25,,"RandomThinker","JoshuaZ","The record is 122 right now, and the next is 119.  There's a pool of 450k centenarians right now, and for 1 to survive until 2036, the average survival rate has to be like 60% a yr, which sounds high.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-17T05:36:20.000Z","2011-11-16T14:34:07.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2036 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125",20,,"Medea","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-08T20:06:58.000Z","2011-11-16T14:34:07.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2036 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125",40,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:24:24.429Z","2011-11-16T14:34:07.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2036 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125",25,,"gwern","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-16T21:46:12.000Z","2011-11-16T14:34:07.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2036 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125",60,,"Harbinger1","JoshuaZ","Very Plausible.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T06:07:21.000Z","2011-11-16T14:34:07.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2036 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125",55,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Updating. Looks less likely. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-17T03:02:10.000Z","2011-11-16T14:34:07.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2036 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125",30,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:24:36.875Z","2011-11-16T14:34:07.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2036 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125",0,,"deleteyourbrain","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:28:32.127Z","2011-11-16T14:34:07.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Third World War (WW III) will occur within 20 years from 2012.",5,,"gwern","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T17:31:02.000Z","2011-11-17T01:13:32.000Z","2029-12-31T13:00:00.000Z"
"The Third World War (WW III) will occur within 20 years from 2012.",33,,"themusicgod1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T21:46:15.000Z","2011-11-17T01:13:32.000Z","2029-12-31T13:00:00.000Z"
"The Third World War (WW III) will occur within 20 years from 2012.",10,,"pranomostro","Harbinger1","@Anubhav: Maybe a war in which >=10 countries from >=2 continents are involved, with >=20 000 000 resulting deaths? Maybe restrict only to the number of deaths.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:12:35.993Z","2011-11-17T01:13:32.000Z","2029-12-31T13:00:00.000Z"
"The Third World War (WW III) will occur within 20 years from 2012.",0,,"deleteyourbrain","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:25:55.555Z","2011-11-17T01:13:32.000Z","2029-12-31T13:00:00.000Z"
"The Third World War (WW III) will occur within 20 years from 2012.",75,,"Harbinger1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T01:13:32.000Z","2011-11-17T01:13:32.000Z","2029-12-31T13:00:00.000Z"
"The Third World War (WW III) will occur within 20 years from 2012.",5,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1","Dated needs to be fixed. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T02:01:47.000Z","2011-11-17T01:13:32.000Z","2029-12-31T13:00:00.000Z"
"The Third World War (WW III) will occur within 20 years from 2012.",10,,"lavalamp","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T17:09:35.000Z","2011-11-17T01:13:32.000Z","2029-12-31T13:00:00.000Z"
"The Third World War (WW III) will occur within 20 years from 2012.",6,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:48:49.000Z","2011-11-17T01:13:32.000Z","2029-12-31T13:00:00.000Z"
"Computers will become truely self-aware by 2029.",11,,"gwern","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T17:45:02.000Z","2011-11-17T01:39:27.000Z","2029-12-27T20:29:00.000Z"
"Computers will become truely self-aware by 2029.",10,,"Baeboo","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T04:37:44.238Z","2011-11-17T01:39:27.000Z","2029-12-27T20:29:00.000Z"
"Computers will become truely self-aware by 2029.",0,,"deleteyourbrain","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:25:13.474Z","2011-11-17T01:39:27.000Z","2029-12-27T20:29:00.000Z"
"Computers will become truely self-aware by 2029.",100,,"deleteyourbrain","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:25:21.514Z","2011-11-17T01:39:27.000Z","2029-12-27T20:29:00.000Z"
"Computers will become truely self-aware by 2029.",90,,"Harbinger1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T01:39:27.000Z","2011-11-17T01:39:27.000Z","2029-12-27T20:29:00.000Z"
"Computers will become truely self-aware by 2029.",16,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T02:09:33.000Z","2011-11-17T01:39:27.000Z","2029-12-27T20:29:00.000Z"
"Computers will become truely self-aware by 2029.",12,,"lavalamp","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T17:03:07.000Z","2011-11-17T01:39:27.000Z","2029-12-27T20:29:00.000Z"
"Computers will become truely self-aware by 2029.",10,,"pranomostro","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:48:19.163Z","2011-11-17T01:39:27.000Z","2029-12-27T20:29:00.000Z"
"Surgeries for 95% of the worlds medical problems will be drastically cost-reduced and available by 2028.",80,,"Harbinger1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T02:13:50.000Z","2011-11-17T02:13:50.000Z","2028-12-27T20:28:00.000Z"
"Surgeries for 95% of the worlds medical problems will be drastically cost-reduced and available by 2028.",25,,"gwern","Harbinger1","bucking the trend of the last, like, 60 years for medical treatment to just get more and more expensive?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T17:56:56.000Z","2011-11-17T02:13:50.000Z","2028-12-27T20:28:00.000Z"
"Surgeries for 95% of the worlds medical problems will be drastically cost-reduced and available by 2028.",20,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-25T14:47:21.000Z","2011-11-17T02:13:50.000Z","2028-12-27T20:28:00.000Z"
"Surgeries for 95% of the worlds medical problems will be drastically cost-reduced and available by 2028.",47,,"themusicgod1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T22:01:16.000Z","2011-11-17T02:13:50.000Z","2028-12-27T20:28:00.000Z"
"Surgeries for 95% of the worlds medical problems will be drastically cost-reduced and available by 2028.",10,,"pranomostro","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:10:34.915Z","2011-11-17T02:13:50.000Z","2028-12-27T20:28:00.000Z"
"Surgeries for 95% of the worlds medical problems will be drastically cost-reduced and available by 2028.",22,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T21:14:22.751Z","2011-11-17T02:13:50.000Z","2028-12-27T20:28:00.000Z"
"Surgeries for 95% of the worlds medical problems will be drastically cost-reduced and available by 2028.",0,,"deleteyourbrain","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:25:39.903Z","2011-11-17T02:13:50.000Z","2028-12-27T20:28:00.000Z"
"Surgeries for 95% of the worlds medical problems will be drastically cost-reduced and available by 2028.",16,,"Baeboo","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-21T21:06:09.874Z","2011-11-17T02:13:50.000Z","2028-12-27T20:28:00.000Z"
"the Earth will be hit by a less than a mile wide asteroid by 2029. Two will be seen and one will hit. Impact will be in the Pacific Ocean south of Guam.",5,,"gwern","Harbinger1","way too specific - as if one could predict number, detection, and location (lot of non-pacific non-south-of-guam ocean out there)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T20:33:55.000Z","2011-11-17T04:10:22.000Z","2029-07-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"the Earth will be hit by a less than a mile wide asteroid by 2029. Two will be seen and one will hit. Impact will be in the Pacific Ocean south of Guam.",80,,"Harbinger1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T04:10:22.000Z","2011-11-17T04:10:22.000Z","2029-07-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"the Earth will be hit by a less than a mile wide asteroid by 2029. Two will be seen and one will hit. Impact will be in the Pacific Ocean south of Guam.",1,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-27T21:35:50.000Z","2011-11-17T04:10:22.000Z","2029-07-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"the Earth will be hit by a less than a mile wide asteroid by 2029. Two will be seen and one will hit. Impact will be in the Pacific Ocean south of Guam.",5,,"Malgidus","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-27T21:38:13.000Z","2011-11-17T04:10:22.000Z","2029-07-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"the Earth will be hit by a less than a mile wide asteroid by 2029. Two will be seen and one will hit. Impact will be in the Pacific Ocean south of Guam.",27,,"themusicgod1","Harbinger1","by 2029 someone might have a camera south of guam capable of capturing that.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T22:12:25.000Z","2011-11-17T04:10:22.000Z","2029-07-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"the Earth will be hit by a less than a mile wide asteroid by 2029. Two will be seen and one will hit. Impact will be in the Pacific Ocean south of Guam.",5,,"pranomostro","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:46:06.237Z","2011-11-17T04:10:22.000Z","2029-07-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"the Earth will be hit by a less than a mile wide asteroid by 2029. Two will be seen and one will hit. Impact will be in the Pacific Ocean south of Guam.",5,,"Baeboo","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T04:36:00.156Z","2011-11-17T04:10:22.000Z","2029-07-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050, the Great Red Spot will no longer be the largest storm on Jupiter. ",60,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-23T00:04:50.000Z","2011-11-23T00:04:50.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050, the Great Red Spot will no longer be the largest storm on Jupiter. ",48,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-23T02:04:26.000Z","2011-11-23T00:04:50.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050, the Great Red Spot will no longer be the largest storm on Jupiter. ",50,,"Sniffnoy","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-23T03:17:22.000Z","2011-11-23T00:04:50.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050, the Great Red Spot will no longer be the largest storm on Jupiter. ",50,,"pranomostro","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:43:54.039Z","2011-11-23T00:04:50.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050, the Great Red Spot will no longer be the largest storm on Jupiter. ",55,,"gwern","NathanMcKnight","GRS old but shrinking fast; chief competitor is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmosphere_of_Jupiter#Oval_BA",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-23T00:18:03.000Z","2011-11-23T00:04:50.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050, the Great Red Spot will no longer be the largest storm on Jupiter. ",40,,"Nic_Smith","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-24T13:45:55.000Z","2011-11-23T00:04:50.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050, the Great Red Spot will no longer be the largest storm on Jupiter. ",45,,"chemotaxis101","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-26T11:41:42.000Z","2011-11-23T00:04:50.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Jimmy Wales and/or the WMF and/or any of its employees will be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize within 34 years.",20,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-04T03:03:34.000Z","2011-12-04T03:03:34.000Z","2045-12-04T03:03:34.000Z"
"Jimmy Wales and/or the WMF and/or any of its employees will be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize within 34 years.",30,,"Anubhav","gwern","posthumous* ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-04T06:52:07.000Z","2011-12-04T03:03:34.000Z","2045-12-04T03:03:34.000Z"
"Jimmy Wales and/or the WMF and/or any of its employees will be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize within 34 years.",15,,"chemotaxis101","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-06T08:04:48.000Z","2011-12-04T03:03:34.000Z","2045-12-04T03:03:34.000Z"
"Jimmy Wales and/or the WMF and/or any of its employees will be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize within 34 years.",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:08:13.000Z","2011-12-04T03:03:34.000Z","2045-12-04T03:03:34.000Z"
"Jimmy Wales and/or the WMF and/or any of its employees will be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize within 34 years.",12,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T21:27:13.553Z","2011-12-04T03:03:34.000Z","2045-12-04T03:03:34.000Z"
"Jimmy Wales and/or the WMF and/or any of its employees will be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize within 34 years.",15,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-04T08:05:52.000Z","2011-12-04T03:03:34.000Z","2045-12-04T03:03:34.000Z"
"Jimmy Wales and/or the WMF and/or any of its employees will be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize within 34 years.",40,,"RobertLumley","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-07T17:53:32.000Z","2011-12-04T03:03:34.000Z","2045-12-04T03:03:34.000Z"
"Jimmy Wales and/or the WMF and/or any of its employees will be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize within 34 years.",12,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:39:39.000Z","2011-12-04T03:03:34.000Z","2045-12-04T03:03:34.000Z"
"Jimmy Wales and/or the WMF and/or any of its employees will be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize within 34 years.",20,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:39:54.656Z","2011-12-04T03:03:34.000Z","2045-12-04T03:03:34.000Z"
"The Yellowstone Supervolcano will have a magmatic eruption before 2023",0,,"bobpage","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-27T15:07:15.000Z","2011-12-27T15:07:15.000Z","2023-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The Yellowstone Supervolcano will have a magmatic eruption before 2023",1,,"gwern","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-27T15:39:58.000Z","2011-12-27T15:07:15.000Z","2023-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The Yellowstone Supervolcano will have a magmatic eruption before 2023",0,,"endoself","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-27T17:24:41.000Z","2011-12-27T15:07:15.000Z","2023-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The Yellowstone Supervolcano will have a magmatic eruption before 2023",7,,"themusicgod1","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:28:19.000Z","2011-12-27T15:07:15.000Z","2023-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The Yellowstone Supervolcano will have a magmatic eruption before 2023",0,,"faws","bobpage","Just a magmatic eruption, not a supereruption? Rounding down to 0% anyway since the last one was 70,000 years ago. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-27T16:06:32.000Z","2011-12-27T15:07:15.000Z","2023-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The Yellowstone Supervolcano will have a magmatic eruption before 2023",0,,"JoshuaZ","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-27T21:24:08.000Z","2011-12-27T15:07:15.000Z","2023-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The Yellowstone Supervolcano will have a magmatic eruption before 2023",0,,"JoshuaZ","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:39:18.000Z","2011-12-27T15:07:15.000Z","2023-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The Yellowstone Supervolcano will have a magmatic eruption before 2023",1,,"pranomostro","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:36:28.636Z","2011-12-27T15:07:15.000Z","2023-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The Yellowstone Supervolcano will have a magmatic eruption before 2023",0,,"JoshuaZ","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T21:27:37.966Z","2011-12-27T15:07:15.000Z","2023-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""We will have the ability to communicate through thought transmission"" --Dev 2; BBC",65,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-24T03:00:47.000Z","2012-01-24T03:00:47.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""We will have the ability to communicate through thought transmission"" --Dev 2; BBC",65,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-24T03:24:27.000Z","2012-01-24T03:00:47.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""We will have the ability to communicate through thought transmission"" --Dev 2; BBC",51,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T00:26:50.205Z","2012-01-24T03:00:47.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""We will have the ability to communicate through thought transmission"" --Dev 2; BBC",45,,"iconreforged","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-27T03:39:01.000Z","2012-01-24T03:00:47.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""We will have the ability to communicate through thought transmission"" --Dev 2; BBC",93,,"Elithrion","gwern","Mostly because I expect AGI and/or emulations by then.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-01T21:30:39.000Z","2012-01-24T03:00:47.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""We will have the ability to communicate through thought transmission"" --Dev 2; BBC",60,,"kmcharliecat","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-26T03:17:59.000Z","2012-01-24T03:00:47.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""We will have the ability to communicate through thought transmission"" --Dev 2; BBC",65,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T05:43:00.640Z","2012-01-24T03:00:47.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, a living multicellular organism will be printed using 3D printing technology.",80,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-31T04:46:22.000Z","2012-01-31T04:46:22.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, a living multicellular organism will be printed using 3D printing technology.",10,,"faws","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-31T14:16:39.000Z","2012-01-31T04:46:22.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, a living multicellular organism will be printed using 3D printing technology.",1,,"Anubhav","NathanMcKnight","Not happening. Biotech moves sloooooooowwwwly.... ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-01T14:31:14.000Z","2012-01-31T04:46:22.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, a living multicellular organism will be printed using 3D printing technology.",11,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-27T16:08:10.000Z","2012-01-31T04:46:22.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, a living multicellular organism will be printed using 3D printing technology.",1,,"Tuxedage","NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight: I'd be interesting to know what priors you have that made you predict an 80% probability. Do you know something I don't?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-27T16:22:34.000Z","2012-01-31T04:46:22.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, a living multicellular organism will be printed using 3D printing technology.",25,,"Jayson Virissimo","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-28T03:29:30.000Z","2012-01-31T04:46:22.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, a living multicellular organism will be printed using 3D printing technology.",47,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight","on the scale of making DNA...is additive manufacture really ""3d printing technology"" anymore though?  Seems like a blurry boundary.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T00:15:36.000Z","2012-01-31T04:46:22.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Natural languages no longer widely used for communication a century from now. (Conditional on non-extinction of _Homo sapiens_/non-occurrence of apocalypse.)",20,,"Anubhav","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-01T07:40:39.000Z","2012-02-01T07:40:39.000Z","2112-02-01T02:10:39.000Z"
"Natural languages no longer widely used for communication a century from now. (Conditional on non-extinction of _Homo sapiens_/non-occurrence of apocalypse.)",10,,"gwern","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-01T16:43:58.000Z","2012-02-01T07:40:39.000Z","2112-02-01T02:10:39.000Z"
"Natural languages no longer widely used for communication a century from now. (Conditional on non-extinction of _Homo sapiens_/non-occurrence of apocalypse.)",5,,"JoshuaZ","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-01T18:31:29.000Z","2012-02-01T07:40:39.000Z","2112-02-01T02:10:39.000Z"
"Natural languages no longer widely used for communication a century from now. (Conditional on non-extinction of _Homo sapiens_/non-occurrence of apocalypse.)",2,,"seifip","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-14T09:37:16.000Z","2012-02-01T07:40:39.000Z","2112-02-01T02:10:39.000Z"
"Natural languages no longer widely used for communication a century from now. (Conditional on non-extinction of _Homo sapiens_/non-occurrence of apocalypse.)",53,,"themusicgod1","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T00:16:42.000Z","2012-02-01T07:40:39.000Z","2112-02-01T02:10:39.000Z"
"Natural languages no longer widely used for communication a century from now. (Conditional on non-extinction of _Homo sapiens_/non-occurrence of apocalypse.)",40,,"pranomostro","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T23:34:23.000Z","2012-02-01T07:40:39.000Z","2112-02-01T02:10:39.000Z"
"Natural languages no longer widely used for communication a century from now. (Conditional on non-extinction of _Homo sapiens_/non-occurrence of apocalypse.)",15,,"Baeboo","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-26T04:08:12.000Z","2012-02-01T07:40:39.000Z","2112-02-01T02:10:39.000Z"
"Natural languages no longer widely used for communication a century from now. (Conditional on non-extinction of _Homo sapiens_/non-occurrence of apocalypse.)",25,,"pranomostro","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T00:23:07.106Z","2012-02-01T07:40:39.000Z","2112-02-01T02:10:39.000Z"
"Natural languages no longer widely used for communication a century from now. (Conditional on non-extinction of _Homo sapiens_/non-occurrence of apocalypse.)",30,,"pranomostro","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T00:23:20.046Z","2012-02-01T07:40:39.000Z","2112-02-01T02:10:39.000Z"
"At least one of Sasha and Malia Obama will say they have or had an eating disorder.",50,,"NancyLebovitz","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-04T16:54:48.000Z","2012-09-04T16:54:48.000Z","2032-09-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one of Sasha and Malia Obama will say they have or had an eating disorder.",25,,"gwern","NancyLebovitz","googling, an upper bound on eating disorders in women is 10%; by the sum rule, 0.10+0.10-(0.10*0.10)=0.19. SES usually reduces disorders/ill-health, and admitting it is also a problem.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-04T19:30:22.000Z","2012-09-04T16:54:48.000Z","2032-09-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one of Sasha and Malia Obama will say they have or had an eating disorder.",35,,"William-Quixote","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-08T17:32:38.000Z","2012-09-04T16:54:48.000Z","2032-09-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one of Sasha and Malia Obama will say they have or had an eating disorder.",25,,"Tuxedage","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-13T18:53:16.000Z","2012-09-04T16:54:48.000Z","2032-09-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one of Sasha and Malia Obama will say they have or had an eating disorder.",40,,"Leo","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-09T09:42:35.000Z","2012-09-04T16:54:48.000Z","2032-09-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one of Sasha and Malia Obama will say they have or had an eating disorder.",18,,"themusicgod1","NancyLebovitz","maybe, but we'll never know",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T12:55:53.000Z","2012-09-04T16:54:48.000Z","2032-09-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one of Sasha and Malia Obama will say they have or had an eating disorder.",15,,"pranomostro","NancyLebovitz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-10T20:46:19.412Z","2012-09-04T16:54:48.000Z","2032-09-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"2024: A vaccine for the cold is readily available at pharmacies and clinics worldwide.  ",5,,"Baeboo","jarlathhealy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T03:18:26.402Z","2012-09-17T23:51:10.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"2024: A vaccine for the cold is readily available at pharmacies and clinics worldwide.  ",95,,"jarlathhealy","jarlathhealy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-17T23:51:10.000Z","2012-09-17T23:51:10.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"2024: A vaccine for the cold is readily available at pharmacies and clinics worldwide.  ",40,,"gwern","jarlathhealy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-18T00:08:50.000Z","2012-09-17T23:51:10.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"2024: A vaccine for the cold is readily available at pharmacies and clinics worldwide.  ",37,,"themusicgod1","jarlathhealy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:05:21.000Z","2012-09-17T23:51:10.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"2024: A vaccine for the cold is readily available at pharmacies and clinics worldwide.  ",36,,"Baeboo","jarlathhealy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T01:53:03.792Z","2012-09-17T23:51:10.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"2024: A vaccine for the cold is readily available at pharmacies and clinics worldwide.  ",10,,"Bruno Parga","jarlathhealy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T17:02:03.149Z","2012-09-17T23:51:10.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"2024: A vaccine for the cold is readily available at pharmacies and clinics worldwide.  ",1,,"Bruno Parga","jarlathhealy","The odds that it *exists at all* are significantly higher than that it *is readily available worldwide*.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-01T15:57:16.795Z","2012-09-17T23:51:10.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"2024: A vaccine for the cold is readily available at pharmacies and clinics worldwide.  ",30,,"RandomThinker","jarlathhealy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-18T10:10:32.000Z","2012-09-17T23:51:10.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"2024: A vaccine for the cold is readily available at pharmacies and clinics worldwide.  ",50,,"pranomostro","jarlathhealy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-09T00:01:49.715Z","2012-09-17T23:51:10.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Sal Khan: average human lifespan in developed countries at least a hundred years by 2060.",20,,"RandomThinker","Pablo","Doubt it's happening for the US.  ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-07T08:56:55.000Z","2012-09-29T23:13:00.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Sal Khan: average human lifespan in developed countries at least a hundred years by 2060.",25,,"pranomostro","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:46:03.341Z","2012-09-29T23:13:00.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Sal Khan: average human lifespan in developed countries at least a hundred years by 2060.",40,,"gwern","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T19:15:24.000Z","2012-09-29T23:13:00.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Sal Khan: average human lifespan in developed countries at least a hundred years by 2060.",35,,"chemotaxis101","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-13T17:56:10.000Z","2012-09-29T23:13:00.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Sal Khan: average human lifespan in developed countries at least a hundred years by 2060.",30,,"ChristianKl","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-29T21:26:44.000Z","2012-09-29T23:13:00.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Sal Khan: average human lifespan in developed countries at least a hundred years by 2060.",35,,"Baeboo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T02:08:58.450Z","2012-09-29T23:13:00.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Sal Khan: average human lifespan in developed countries at least a hundred years by 2060.",60,,"Pablo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-29T23:13:00.000Z","2012-09-29T23:13:00.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Sal Khan: average human lifespan in developed countries at least a hundred years by 2060.",45,,"Pablo","Pablo","My earlier estimate seems too high now.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-06T16:35:05.000Z","2012-09-29T23:13:00.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will have world's largest GDP by 2027, and not before 2020.",65,,"gwern","RandomThinker","see also http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1547 by 2025 or American per capita 3x in 2050 http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3006",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T19:24:49.000Z","2012-10-01T07:22:52.000Z","2027-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will have world's largest GDP by 2027, and not before 2020.",65,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T07:22:52.000Z","2012-10-01T07:22:52.000Z","2027-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will have world's largest GDP by 2027, and not before 2020.",60,,"DaFranker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-12-12T02:53:10.000Z","2012-10-01T07:22:52.000Z","2027-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will have world's largest GDP by 2027, and not before 2020.",60,,"seifip","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-14T09:54:14.000Z","2012-10-01T07:22:52.000Z","2027-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will have world's largest GDP by 2027, and not before 2020.",70,,"Tuxedage","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-14T21:25:14.000Z","2012-10-01T07:22:52.000Z","2027-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will have world's largest GDP by 2027, and not before 2020.",40,,"themusicgod1","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:30:51.000Z","2012-10-01T07:22:52.000Z","2027-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will have world's largest GDP by 2027, and not before 2020.",35,,"pranomostro","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:43:02.213Z","2012-10-01T07:22:52.000Z","2027-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2100, the vast majority of ""people"" will be immortal computers running brain simulations. -- Robin Hanson",50,,"gwern","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T19:32:51.000Z","2012-10-01T16:38:10.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2100, the vast majority of ""people"" will be immortal computers running brain simulations. -- Robin Hanson",40,,"Ben Doherty","Pablo","probably not that quickly",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-02T20:26:57.000Z","2012-10-01T16:38:10.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2100, the vast majority of ""people"" will be immortal computers running brain simulations. -- Robin Hanson",30,,"chemotaxis101","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-13T17:40:49.000Z","2012-10-01T16:38:10.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2100, the vast majority of ""people"" will be immortal computers running brain simulations. -- Robin Hanson",50,,"themusicgod1","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:36:50.000Z","2012-10-01T16:38:10.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2100, the vast majority of ""people"" will be immortal computers running brain simulations. -- Robin Hanson",37,,"pranomostro","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:29:36.776Z","2012-10-01T16:38:10.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2100, the vast majority of ""people"" will be immortal computers running brain simulations. -- Robin Hanson",50,,"Baeboo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T02:31:43.305Z","2012-10-01T16:38:10.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2100, the vast majority of ""people"" will be immortal computers running brain simulations. -- Robin Hanson",50,,"Pablo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T16:38:10.000Z","2012-10-01T16:38:10.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2100, world economic growth rates will have increased by over a factor of a hundred. -- Robin Hanson",5,,"kilobug","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-10T08:03:15.000Z","2012-10-01T16:39:35.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2100, world economic growth rates will have increased by over a factor of a hundred. -- Robin Hanson",15,,"chemotaxis101","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-13T17:40:23.000Z","2012-10-01T16:39:35.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2100, world economic growth rates will have increased by over a factor of a hundred. -- Robin Hanson",31,,"JoshuaZ","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-31T15:22:34.000Z","2012-10-01T16:39:35.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2100, world economic growth rates will have increased by over a factor of a hundred. -- Robin Hanson",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","Pablo","If that did happen, the entire concept of GDP would be meaningless.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-27T07:05:12.000Z","2012-10-01T16:39:35.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2100, world economic growth rates will have increased by over a factor of a hundred. -- Robin Hanson",46,,"themusicgod1","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:37:19.000Z","2012-10-01T16:39:35.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2100, world economic growth rates will have increased by over a factor of a hundred. -- Robin Hanson",5,,"RandomThinker","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-31T07:10:54.000Z","2012-10-01T16:39:35.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2100, world economic growth rates will have increased by over a factor of a hundred. -- Robin Hanson",25,,"Pablo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T16:39:35.000Z","2012-10-01T16:39:35.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"If your head is cryogenically frozen, you will be alive in 2100. -- Robin Hanson",4,,"gwern","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T19:35:14.000Z","2012-10-01T16:50:01.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"If your head is cryogenically frozen, you will be alive in 2100. -- Robin Hanson",5,,"chemotaxis101","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-13T17:35:28.000Z","2012-10-01T16:50:01.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"If your head is cryogenically frozen, you will be alive in 2100. -- Robin Hanson",5,,"Baeboo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T02:34:49.550Z","2012-10-01T16:50:01.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"If your head is cryogenically frozen, you will be alive in 2100. -- Robin Hanson",5,,"kilobug","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-10T08:02:21.000Z","2012-10-01T16:50:01.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"If your head is cryogenically frozen, you will be alive in 2100. -- Robin Hanson",46,,"themusicgod1","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:38:57.000Z","2012-10-01T16:50:01.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"If your head is cryogenically frozen, you will be alive in 2100. -- Robin Hanson",6,,"pranomostro","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:28:05.614Z","2012-10-01T16:50:01.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"If your head is cryogenically frozen, you will be alive in 2100. -- Robin Hanson",5,,"Pablo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T16:50:01.000Z","2012-10-01T16:50:01.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"They'll clone a Neanderthal (or other species of primitive human) by 2040",20,,"kilobug","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-10T07:59:51.000Z","2012-10-06T06:32:55.000Z","2050-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"They'll clone a Neanderthal (or other species of primitive human) by 2040",20,,"chemotaxis101","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-13T17:29:03.000Z","2012-10-06T06:32:55.000Z","2050-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"They'll clone a Neanderthal (or other species of primitive human) by 2040",30,,"Michael Dickens","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-16T06:36:47.000Z","2012-10-06T06:32:55.000Z","2050-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"They'll clone a Neanderthal (or other species of primitive human) by 2040",15,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-06T06:32:55.000Z","2012-10-06T06:32:55.000Z","2050-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"They'll clone a Neanderthal (or other species of primitive human) by 2040",20,,"Jayson Virissimo","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-12T09:48:59.000Z","2012-10-06T06:32:55.000Z","2050-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"They'll clone a Neanderthal (or other species of primitive human) by 2040",54,,"themusicgod1","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:42:19.000Z","2012-10-06T06:32:55.000Z","2050-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"They'll clone a Neanderthal (or other species of primitive human) by 2040",14,,"Pablo","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-11T03:54:10.000Z","2012-10-06T06:32:55.000Z","2050-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Most of the gene sites accounting for the additive heritability of g (0.6) will be identified by 2021. -- Steve Hsu",55,,"gwern","Pablo","most of this estimate is probably coming from his optimism about BGI I'm guessing...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-21T04:19:57.000Z","2012-10-13T18:52:06.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Most of the gene sites accounting for the additive heritability of g (0.6) will be identified by 2021. -- Steve Hsu",41,,"JoshuaZ","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-21T16:09:14.000Z","2012-10-13T18:52:06.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Most of the gene sites accounting for the additive heritability of g (0.6) will be identified by 2021. -- Steve Hsu",30,,"Yvain","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-12-25T05:20:50.000Z","2012-10-13T18:52:06.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Most of the gene sites accounting for the additive heritability of g (0.6) will be identified by 2021. -- Steve Hsu",54,,"themusicgod1","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:47:21.000Z","2012-10-13T18:52:06.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Most of the gene sites accounting for the additive heritability of g (0.6) will be identified by 2021. -- Steve Hsu",56,,"pranomostro","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:26:45.994Z","2012-10-13T18:52:06.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Most of the gene sites accounting for the additive heritability of g (0.6) will be identified by 2021. -- Steve Hsu",25,,"InquilineKea","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-03T06:36:11.000Z","2012-10-13T18:52:06.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Most of the gene sites accounting for the additive heritability of g (0.6) will be identified by 2021. -- Steve Hsu",70,,"Pablo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-13T18:52:06.000Z","2012-10-13T18:52:06.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Most of the gene sites accounting for the additive heritability of g (0.6) will be identified by 2021. -- Steve Hsu",45,,"Pablo","Pablo","Adjusting downwards after reading this: http://www.nature.com/news/chinese-project-probes-the-genetics-of-genius-1.12985",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-24T02:24:24.000Z","2012-10-13T18:52:06.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Self-driving cars will be available for sale or lease in most US states within ten years (2022). ",80,,"Aticper","Aticper",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-24T06:11:55.000Z","2012-10-24T06:11:55.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Self-driving cars will be available for sale or lease in most US states within ten years (2022). ",20,,"RandomThinker","Aticper",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-24T09:52:47.000Z","2012-10-24T06:11:55.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Self-driving cars will be available for sale or lease in most US states within ten years (2022). ",63,,"Elithrion","Aticper","Assuming we mean ""available to at least some consumers in >50% of states and legal to drive on the roads in autonomous mode with human supervision in those states"".",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-01T02:55:48.000Z","2012-10-24T06:11:55.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Self-driving cars will be available for sale or lease in most US states within ten years (2022). ",25,,"JoshuaZ","Aticper",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-01T15:47:07.000Z","2012-10-24T06:11:55.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Self-driving cars will be available for sale or lease in most US states within ten years (2022). ",30,,"mad","Aticper",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-06T02:32:33.000Z","2012-10-24T06:11:55.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Self-driving cars will be available for sale or lease in most US states within ten years (2022). ",46,,"themusicgod1","Aticper",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T14:03:00.000Z","2012-10-24T06:11:55.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Self-driving cars will be available for sale or lease in most US states within ten years (2022). ",27,,"Pablo","Aticper",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-10T22:33:47.000Z","2012-10-24T06:11:55.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be 50-60 years old at his inauguration.",45,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-11T20:25:41.000Z","2013-01-11T20:25:41.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be 50-60 years old at his inauguration.",45,,"RandomThinker","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-12T03:53:46.000Z","2013-01-11T20:25:41.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be 50-60 years old at his inauguration.",40,,"Tuxedage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-12T16:34:11.000Z","2013-01-11T20:25:41.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be 50-60 years old at his inauguration.",40,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T14:49:54.000Z","2013-01-11T20:25:41.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be 50-60 years old at his inauguration.",48,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-27T16:07:26.000Z","2013-01-11T20:25:41.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be 50-60 years old at his inauguration.",50,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:18:47.991Z","2013-01-11T20:25:41.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be 50-60 years old at his inauguration.",45,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T02:55:24.050Z","2013-01-11T20:25:41.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be <50 years old at his inauguration.",25,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-11T20:25:42.000Z","2013-01-11T20:25:42.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be <50 years old at his inauguration.",30,,"RandomThinker","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-12T03:52:55.000Z","2013-01-11T20:25:42.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be <50 years old at his inauguration.",21,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-27T16:06:31.000Z","2013-01-11T20:25:42.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be <50 years old at his inauguration.",20,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:18:35.120Z","2013-01-11T20:25:42.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be <50 years old at his inauguration.",20,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T02:55:25.302Z","2013-01-11T20:25:42.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be <50 years old at his inauguration.",30,,"Tuxedage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-12T16:33:52.000Z","2013-01-11T20:25:42.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be <50 years old at his inauguration.",11,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T14:50:32.000Z","2013-01-11T20:25:42.000Z","2032-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Germany to cancel phase-out of nuclear power by 2022.",40,,"simplicio","simplicio",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-18T22:49:58.000Z","2013-01-18T22:49:58.000Z","2022-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Germany to cancel phase-out of nuclear power by 2022.",55,,"JoshuaZ","simplicio",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-01T21:39:32.000Z","2013-01-18T22:49:58.000Z","2022-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Germany to cancel phase-out of nuclear power by 2022.",15,,"dhoe","simplicio","It's supported by 80% of the population and was decided in its current form by the parties most in favor of nuclear energy.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-07T13:34:06.000Z","2013-01-18T22:49:58.000Z","2022-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Germany to cancel phase-out of nuclear power by 2022.",46,,"themusicgod1","simplicio",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T14:54:11.000Z","2013-01-18T22:49:58.000Z","2022-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Germany to cancel phase-out of nuclear power by 2022.",50,,"Michael Dickens","simplicio",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-21T23:02:34.000Z","2013-01-18T22:49:58.000Z","2022-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Germany to cancel phase-out of nuclear power by 2022.",35,,"ChristianKl","simplicio",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-31T21:37:00.000Z","2013-01-18T22:49:58.000Z","2022-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Germany to cancel phase-out of nuclear power by 2022.",10,,"najdorf","simplicio",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-07T07:43:11.000Z","2013-01-18T22:49:58.000Z","2022-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"One of Italy/Spain/Portugal/Germany will leave the EU before 2023",55,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-23T10:16:51.000Z","2013-03-23T10:16:50.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"One of Italy/Spain/Portugal/Germany will leave the EU before 2023",10,,"ChristianKl","RandomThinker","Leaving the EU is a much bigger step than just leaving the Euro. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-30T18:08:12.000Z","2013-03-23T10:16:50.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"One of Italy/Spain/Portugal/Germany will leave the EU before 2023",46,,"themusicgod1","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T15:04:11.000Z","2013-03-23T10:16:50.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"One of Italy/Spain/Portugal/Germany will leave the EU before 2023",1,,"telegrafista","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-14T16:03:11.817Z","2013-03-23T10:16:50.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"One of Italy/Spain/Portugal/Germany will leave the EU before 2023",10,,"dhoe","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-24T16:39:12.000Z","2013-03-23T10:16:50.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"One of Italy/Spain/Portugal/Germany will leave the EU before 2023",35,,"ygert","RandomThinker","I'm assuming that more than one of those countries leaving also counts. I'm also assuming that this will be marked as correct if the EU dissolves completely.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-24T18:23:14.000Z","2013-03-23T10:16:50.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"One of Italy/Spain/Portugal/Germany will leave the EU before 2023",5,,"phreeza","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-02T22:18:14.000Z","2013-03-23T10:16:50.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"An element will be discovered with atomic number of 119 or greater before January 1, 2030",55,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-25T00:12:40.000Z","2013-04-25T00:12:40.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"An element will be discovered with atomic number of 119 or greater before January 1, 2030",45,,"RandomThinker","JoshuaZ","This sort of thing seems to be slowing.  I expect if discovered, more likely to be non US scientist than US scientists.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-25T03:50:59.000Z","2013-04-25T00:12:40.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"An element will be discovered with atomic number of 119 or greater before January 1, 2030",60,,"Jayson Virissimo","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-25T19:49:51.000Z","2013-04-25T00:12:40.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"An element will be discovered with atomic number of 119 or greater before January 1, 2030",70,,"Tuxedage","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-25T19:50:52.000Z","2013-04-25T00:12:40.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"An element will be discovered with atomic number of 119 or greater before January 1, 2030",50,,"adbge","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-12T02:44:34.000Z","2013-04-25T00:12:40.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"An element will be discovered with atomic number of 119 or greater before January 1, 2030",58,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-02T00:04:39.000Z","2013-04-25T00:12:40.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"An element will be discovered with atomic number of 119 or greater before January 1, 2030",77,,"Mati Roy","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-12T02:31:03.000Z","2013-04-25T00:12:40.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Mathematician Shinichi Mochizuki's proof on the ABC Conjecture will be verified to be valid by 2035.",2,,"Baeboo","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T03:27:46.708Z","2013-05-11T16:04:18.000Z","2035-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Mathematician Shinichi Mochizuki's proof on the ABC Conjecture will be verified to be valid by 2035.",40,,"Tuxedage","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-11T16:04:19.000Z","2013-05-11T16:04:18.000Z","2035-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Mathematician Shinichi Mochizuki's proof on the ABC Conjecture will be verified to be valid by 2035.",40,,"gwern","Tuxedage","a very long hard to understand proof using novel fields constructed in seclusion which no one else understands. Mochizuki may be a prodigy with many previous accomplishments, but it still doesn't bode well for proof being fundamentally sound",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-11T16:10:48.000Z","2013-05-11T16:04:18.000Z","2035-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Mathematician Shinichi Mochizuki's proof on the ABC Conjecture will be verified to be valid by 2035.",36,,"pranomostro","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:01:41.821Z","2013-05-11T16:04:18.000Z","2035-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Mathematician Shinichi Mochizuki's proof on the ABC Conjecture will be verified to be valid by 2035.",0,,"deleteyourbrain","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T03:02:18.958Z","2013-05-11T16:04:18.000Z","2035-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Mathematician Shinichi Mochizuki's proof on the ABC Conjecture will be verified to be valid by 2035.",35,,"alecbrooks","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-22T12:08:33.000Z","2013-05-11T16:04:18.000Z","2035-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Mathematician Shinichi Mochizuki's proof on the ABC Conjecture will be verified to be valid by 2035.",32,,"JoshuaZ","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-22T16:59:23.000Z","2013-05-11T16:04:18.000Z","2035-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Mathematician Shinichi Mochizuki's proof on the ABC Conjecture will be verified to be valid by 2035.",30,,"Baeboo","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T03:04:37.141Z","2013-05-11T16:04:18.000Z","2035-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Mathematician Shinichi Mochizuki's proof on the ABC Conjecture will be verified to be valid by 2035.",2,,"JoshuaZ","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T19:12:28.180Z","2013-05-11T16:04:18.000Z","2035-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Mathematician Shinichi Mochizuki's proof on the ABC Conjecture will be verified to be valid by 2035.",5,,"Baeboo","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-27T05:16:27.713Z","2013-05-11T16:04:18.000Z","2035-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Infinitely many primes with gap <= 16, proven by 2050",75,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-20T02:47:46.000Z","2013-05-20T02:47:46.000Z","2050-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Infinitely many primes with gap <= 16, proven by 2050",55,,"Baeboo","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T03:07:12.628Z","2013-05-20T02:47:46.000Z","2050-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Infinitely many primes with gap <= 16, proven by 2050",40,,"Tuxedage","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-21T00:56:20.000Z","2013-05-20T02:47:46.000Z","2050-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Infinitely many primes with gap <= 16, proven by 2050",35,,"RandomThinker","JoshuaZ","Just read a good summary.   This does seem like a qualitative jump. http://simonsfoundation.org/features/science-news/unheralded-mathematician-bridges-the-prime-gap/",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-21T22:35:16.000Z","2013-05-20T02:47:46.000Z","2050-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Infinitely many primes with gap <= 16, proven by 2050",60,,"gwern","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-22T02:18:53.000Z","2013-05-20T02:47:46.000Z","2050-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Infinitely many primes with gap <= 16, proven by 2050",80,,"Raven","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-24T22:05:00.000Z","2013-05-20T02:47:46.000Z","2050-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Infinitely many primes with gap <= 16, proven by 2050",55,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:01:00.842Z","2013-05-20T02:47:46.000Z","2050-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"The US dollar will still be the world's primary reserve currency in 2025 (The primary reserve currency being the currency held in greatest amounts by countries in their foreign reserves).",75,,"najdorf","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-15T03:21:24.000Z","2013-11-15T03:21:24.000Z","2025-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"The US dollar will still be the world's primary reserve currency in 2025 (The primary reserve currency being the currency held in greatest amounts by countries in their foreign reserves).",70,,"a0c4a123f7","najdorf","China holds the value of their currency low for exports by buying large amounts of dollars and the international oil markets use it as the primary currency.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-12-16T09:37:19.000Z","2013-11-15T03:21:24.000Z","2025-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"The US dollar will still be the world's primary reserve currency in 2025 (The primary reserve currency being the currency held in greatest amounts by countries in their foreign reserves).",60,,"Jayson Virissimo","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-15T04:36:23.000Z","2013-11-15T03:21:24.000Z","2025-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"The US dollar will still be the world's primary reserve currency in 2025 (The primary reserve currency being the currency held in greatest amounts by countries in their foreign reserves).",70,,"procran","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-16T21:28:08.000Z","2013-11-15T03:21:24.000Z","2025-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"The US dollar will still be the world's primary reserve currency in 2025 (The primary reserve currency being the currency held in greatest amounts by countries in their foreign reserves).",40,,"fela","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-19T19:25:14.000Z","2013-11-15T03:21:24.000Z","2025-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"The US dollar will still be the world's primary reserve currency in 2025 (The primary reserve currency being the currency held in greatest amounts by countries in their foreign reserves).",65,,"JoshuaZ","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-21T06:37:57.000Z","2013-11-15T03:21:24.000Z","2025-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"The US dollar will still be the world's primary reserve currency in 2025 (The primary reserve currency being the currency held in greatest amounts by countries in their foreign reserves).",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","najdorf","Renminbi rules. The rupee will be a strong contender for 3rd rank by that point.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-19T08:37:14.000Z","2013-11-15T03:21:24.000Z","2025-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"Chelsea Manning will be be pardoned by the US government and undergo transgender surgery and become a popular advocate of free information in the US in the 2040s and 2050s",75,,"deanmullen2014","deanmullen2014",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-12-31T01:04:34.000Z","2013-12-31T01:04:34.000Z","2055-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chelsea Manning will be be pardoned by the US government and undergo transgender surgery and become a popular advocate of free information in the US in the 2040s and 2050s",5,,"HonoreDB","deanmullen2014",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-04T00:09:59.000Z","2013-12-31T01:04:34.000Z","2055-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chelsea Manning will be be pardoned by the US government and undergo transgender surgery and become a popular advocate of free information in the US in the 2040s and 2050s",5,,"btrettel","deanmullen2014","Seems like a case of the conjunction fallacy to me. Plus I think it is unlikely she will be pardoned. Also, it's unclear what ""popular advocate"" means here. I'm skeptical of her popularity in general, now or in the future.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-15T12:57:17.000Z","2013-12-31T01:04:34.000Z","2055-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chelsea Manning will be be pardoned by the US government and undergo transgender surgery and become a popular advocate of free information in the US in the 2040s and 2050s",5,,"JoshuaZ","deanmullen2014","Per btrettel",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-15T14:24:53.000Z","2013-12-31T01:04:34.000Z","2055-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chelsea Manning will be be pardoned by the US government and undergo transgender surgery and become a popular advocate of free information in the US in the 2040s and 2050s",3,,"themusicgod1","deanmullen2014","he's a dead man walking at this point, imho",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-13T06:49:44.000Z","2013-12-31T01:04:34.000Z","2055-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chelsea Manning will be be pardoned by the US government and undergo transgender surgery and become a popular advocate of free information in the US in the 2040s and 2050s",0,,"bobpage","deanmullen2014",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-18T07:24:03.000Z","2013-12-31T01:04:34.000Z","2055-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chelsea Manning will be be pardoned by the US government and undergo transgender surgery and become a popular advocate of free information in the US in the 2040s and 2050s",10,,"a0c4a123f7","deanmullen2014","Has to not happen until the 2040s or after the 2050s, has to be pardoned and undergo TG surgery, and become an advocate...

I suspect in 20 years few people will even remember she's rotting to death in a prison somewhere.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-01T13:40:18.000Z","2013-12-31T01:04:34.000Z","2055-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Facebook will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034.",2,,"Neznans","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-04-29T14:31:35.000Z","2014-04-28T21:09:36.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Facebook will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034.",15,,"JoshuaZ","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-05-12T18:17:21.000Z","2014-04-28T21:09:36.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Facebook will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034.",3,,"Pablo","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-05-01T18:20:20.000Z","2014-04-28T21:09:36.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Facebook will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034.",5,,"Neznans","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-04-29T14:28:19.000Z","2014-04-28T21:09:36.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Facebook will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034.",28,,"aarongertler","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-05-11T02:49:02.000Z","2014-04-28T21:09:36.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Facebook will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034.",10,,"EloiseRosen","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-21T21:12:16.000Z","2014-04-28T21:09:36.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Facebook will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034.",49,,"themusicgod1","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-15T08:37:42.000Z","2014-04-28T21:09:36.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Facebook will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034.",57,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-04-28T21:09:36.000Z","2014-04-28T21:09:36.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"LinkedIn will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034. ",0,,"influnza","Mati Roy","No way",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-04-29T08:34:49.000Z","2014-04-28T21:12:50.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"LinkedIn will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034. ",0,,"Neznans","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-04-29T14:29:16.000Z","2014-04-28T21:12:50.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"LinkedIn will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034. ",1,,"Pablo","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-05-01T18:19:34.000Z","2014-04-28T21:12:50.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"LinkedIn will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034. ",1,,"Jayson Virissimo","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-04-29T02:19:36.000Z","2014-04-28T21:12:50.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"LinkedIn will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034. ",0,,"procran","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-05-11T00:35:06.000Z","2014-04-28T21:12:50.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"LinkedIn will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034. ",49,,"themusicgod1","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-15T08:37:49.000Z","2014-04-28T21:12:50.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"LinkedIn will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034. ",4,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-04-28T21:12:50.000Z","2014-04-28T21:12:50.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zero humans will set foot on Mars before 2100",75,,"dvolk","dvolk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-17T07:18:28.000Z","2014-12-17T07:18:28.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zero humans will set foot on Mars before 2100",15,,"JoshuaZ","dvolk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-17T18:41:03.000Z","2014-12-17T07:18:28.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zero humans will set foot on Mars before 2100",10,,"sweeneyrod","dvolk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-18T21:11:40.000Z","2014-12-17T07:18:28.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zero humans will set foot on Mars before 2100",5,,"kilobug","dvolk","Assuming there is still a human civlization in 2100 able to judge the prediction (ie, no catastrophic disaster/collapse until then) ;)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-29T13:53:02.000Z","2014-12-17T07:18:28.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zero humans will set foot on Mars before 2100",4,,"The_Offwo","dvolk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-04T19:55:23.000Z","2014-12-17T07:18:28.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zero humans will set foot on Mars before 2100",75,,"JoshuaZ","dvolk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-06T13:24:14.000Z","2014-12-17T07:18:28.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zero humans will set foot on Mars before 2100",85,,"pranomostro","dvolk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-25T16:07:14.000Z","2014-12-17T07:18:28.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zero humans will set foot on Mars before 2100",20,,"JoshuaZ","dvolk","Ahh, misread prediction. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-06T13:24:39.000Z","2014-12-17T07:18:28.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zero humans will set foot on Mars before 2100",20,,"Baeboo","dvolk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T03:33:31.477Z","2014-12-17T07:18:28.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""People Will Spend the Majority of Waking Time in Virtual Reality by 2020"" - Zack Kanter (http://goo.gl/ZlE6LS), taken to mean that the majority of Americans' waking hours will be spent in virtual reality in the year 2020 (not including augmented reality)",10,,"benwr","benwr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-29T18:35:41.000Z","2015-01-29T18:35:41.000Z","2021-01-02T09:00:00.000Z"
"""People Will Spend the Majority of Waking Time in Virtual Reality by 2020"" - Zack Kanter (http://goo.gl/ZlE6LS), taken to mean that the majority of Americans' waking hours will be spent in virtual reality in the year 2020 (not including augmented reality)",7,,"EloiseRosen","benwr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-29T19:55:17.000Z","2015-01-29T18:35:41.000Z","2021-01-02T09:00:00.000Z"
"""People Will Spend the Majority of Waking Time in Virtual Reality by 2020"" - Zack Kanter (http://goo.gl/ZlE6LS), taken to mean that the majority of Americans' waking hours will be spent in virtual reality in the year 2020 (not including augmented reality)",1,,"JoshuaZ","benwr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-31T01:29:59.000Z","2015-01-29T18:35:41.000Z","2021-01-02T09:00:00.000Z"
"""People Will Spend the Majority of Waking Time in Virtual Reality by 2020"" - Zack Kanter (http://goo.gl/ZlE6LS), taken to mean that the majority of Americans' waking hours will be spent in virtual reality in the year 2020 (not including augmented reality)",8,,"themusicgod1","benwr","Too soon.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-01T23:24:11.000Z","2015-01-29T18:35:41.000Z","2021-01-02T09:00:00.000Z"
"""People Will Spend the Majority of Waking Time in Virtual Reality by 2020"" - Zack Kanter (http://goo.gl/ZlE6LS), taken to mean that the majority of Americans' waking hours will be spent in virtual reality in the year 2020 (not including augmented reality)",7,,"MattG","benwr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-30T21:18:24.000Z","2015-01-29T18:35:41.000Z","2021-01-02T09:00:00.000Z"
"""People Will Spend the Majority of Waking Time in Virtual Reality by 2020"" - Zack Kanter (http://goo.gl/ZlE6LS), taken to mean that the majority of Americans' waking hours will be spent in virtual reality in the year 2020 (not including augmented reality)",1,,"two2thehead","benwr","Way too soon.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-16T01:59:04.000Z","2015-01-29T18:35:41.000Z","2021-01-02T09:00:00.000Z"
"""People Will Spend the Majority of Waking Time in Virtual Reality by 2020"" - Zack Kanter (http://goo.gl/ZlE6LS), taken to mean that the majority of Americans' waking hours will be spent in virtual reality in the year 2020 (not including augmented reality)",2,,"Mati Roy","benwr","Jayson: A HUD on your glasses or contact lenses is 'augmented reality' I think; so no it doesn't count as VR.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-01T16:29:17.000Z","2015-01-29T18:35:41.000Z","2021-01-02T09:00:00.000Z"
"Speech to text processing to improve such that by end of 2025 it will be an essentially solved problem. ",55,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-09T00:57:17.000Z","2015-02-09T00:57:17.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Speech to text processing to improve such that by end of 2025 it will be an essentially solved problem. ",80,,"EloiseRosen","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-09T02:10:19.000Z","2015-02-09T00:57:17.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Speech to text processing to improve such that by end of 2025 it will be an essentially solved problem. ",95,,"Houshalter","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-09T02:25:33.000Z","2015-02-09T00:57:17.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Speech to text processing to improve such that by end of 2025 it will be an essentially solved problem. ",90,,"ThetaAurigae","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-16T16:41:17.000Z","2015-02-09T00:57:17.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Speech to text processing to improve such that by end of 2025 it will be an essentially solved problem. ",95,,"two2thehead","JoshuaZ","Siri. Google Now. Cortana. Alexa from Amazon. Now Facebook. Eye ball to bug ratio is pretty high.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/facebook-buys-voice-recognition-startup-1420496634",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-02T14:53:11.000Z","2015-02-09T00:57:17.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Speech to text processing to improve such that by end of 2025 it will be an essentially solved problem. ",85,,"Pablo","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-19T02:21:08.000Z","2015-02-09T00:57:17.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Speech to text processing to improve such that by end of 2025 it will be an essentially solved problem. ",99,,"quicklystarfish","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-16T09:54:54.000Z","2015-02-09T00:57:17.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, the consensus in the United States will be that 9/11 was an inside job with US government involvement. Consensus to be determined by at least 60% of the US believing it, or it to be widely accepted in some other fashion if the situation has broke",2,,"timujin","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-14T14:28:23.000Z","2015-04-13T00:36:11.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, the consensus in the United States will be that 9/11 was an inside job with US government involvement. Consensus to be determined by at least 60% of the US believing it, or it to be widely accepted in some other fashion if the situation has broke",5,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-13T00:36:11.000Z","2015-04-13T00:36:11.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, the consensus in the United States will be that 9/11 was an inside job with US government involvement. Consensus to be determined by at least 60% of the US believing it, or it to be widely accepted in some other fashion if the situation has broke",11,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","On second, maybe something like the JFK situation could occur here, but it doesn't seem that likely. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-13T00:56:58.000Z","2015-04-13T00:36:11.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, the consensus in the United States will be that 9/11 was an inside job with US government involvement. Consensus to be determined by at least 60% of the US believing it, or it to be widely accepted in some other fashion if the situation has broke",0,,"Unknowns","JoshuaZ","This would not happen even if it had actually been an inside job.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-13T10:41:36.000Z","2015-04-13T00:36:11.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, the consensus in the United States will be that 9/11 was an inside job with US government involvement. Consensus to be determined by at least 60% of the US believing it, or it to be widely accepted in some other fashion if the situation has broke",1,,"EloiseRosen","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-13T17:21:11.000Z","2015-04-13T00:36:11.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, the consensus in the United States will be that 9/11 was an inside job with US government involvement. Consensus to be determined by at least 60% of the US believing it, or it to be widely accepted in some other fashion if the situation has broke",0,,"jesselevine","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-13T23:58:42.000Z","2015-04-13T00:36:11.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, the consensus in the United States will be that 9/11 was an inside job with US government involvement. Consensus to be determined by at least 60% of the US believing it, or it to be widely accepted in some other fashion if the situation has broke",8,,"NathanMcKnight","JoshuaZ","I'd say 10% chance it's in part an inside job but a little less on people recognizing that if it's true. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-16T15:38:55.000Z","2015-04-13T00:36:11.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, the consensus in the United States will be that 9/11 was an inside job with US government involvement. Consensus to be determined by at least 60% of the US believing it, or it to be widely accepted in some other fashion if the situation has broke",42,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-19T03:58:19.000Z","2015-04-13T00:36:11.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The ""EM drive"" within 8 years not drive anything nor will it provide any meaningful peer-reviewed contribution to modern physics beyond ""still another insight in how not to fuck up an experimental setup and misinterpret data""",99,,"gav","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T04:58:53.895Z","2015-05-02T21:10:14.000Z","2023-05-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"The ""EM drive"" within 8 years not drive anything nor will it provide any meaningful peer-reviewed contribution to modern physics beyond ""still another insight in how not to fuck up an experimental setup and misinterpret data""",95,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-02T21:10:14.000Z","2015-05-02T21:10:14.000Z","2023-05-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"The ""EM drive"" within 8 years not drive anything nor will it provide any meaningful peer-reviewed contribution to modern physics beyond ""still another insight in how not to fuck up an experimental setup and misinterpret data""",99,,"jessriedel","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-02T21:08:04.000Z","2015-05-02T21:10:14.000Z","2023-05-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"The ""EM drive"" within 8 years not drive anything nor will it provide any meaningful peer-reviewed contribution to modern physics beyond ""still another insight in how not to fuck up an experimental setup and misinterpret data""",95,,"btrettel","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-06T16:33:30.000Z","2015-05-02T21:10:14.000Z","2023-05-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"The ""EM drive"" within 8 years not drive anything nor will it provide any meaningful peer-reviewed contribution to modern physics beyond ""still another insight in how not to fuck up an experimental setup and misinterpret data""",99,,"Unknowns","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-07T10:31:57.000Z","2015-05-02T21:10:14.000Z","2023-05-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"The ""EM drive"" within 8 years not drive anything nor will it provide any meaningful peer-reviewed contribution to modern physics beyond ""still another insight in how not to fuck up an experimental setup and misinterpret data""",99,,"CarlShulman","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-02T21:05:10.000Z","2015-05-02T21:10:14.000Z","2023-05-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"The ""EM drive"" within 8 years not drive anything nor will it provide any meaningful peer-reviewed contribution to modern physics beyond ""still another insight in how not to fuck up an experimental setup and misinterpret data""",56,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T23:50:10.000Z","2015-05-02T21:10:14.000Z","2023-05-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, there will be commercial and/or free applications/overlays that will present the user with lie/truth probabilities of a talking person - useful e.g. for politicians in TV debates. It could be video analysis, augmented reality overlays or somethin",60,,"InquilineKea","silacoid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-16T06:23:19.000Z","2015-07-16T01:31:27.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, there will be commercial and/or free applications/overlays that will present the user with lie/truth probabilities of a talking person - useful e.g. for politicians in TV debates. It could be video analysis, augmented reality overlays or somethin",60,,"timujin","silacoid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-18T08:47:16.000Z","2015-07-16T01:31:27.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, there will be commercial and/or free applications/overlays that will present the user with lie/truth probabilities of a talking person - useful e.g. for politicians in TV debates. It could be video analysis, augmented reality overlays or somethin",10,,"David","silacoid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-19T13:31:03.000Z","2015-07-16T01:31:27.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, there will be commercial and/or free applications/overlays that will present the user with lie/truth probabilities of a talking person - useful e.g. for politicians in TV debates. It could be video analysis, augmented reality overlays or somethin",80,,"silacoid","silacoid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-16T01:31:27.000Z","2015-07-16T01:31:27.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, there will be commercial and/or free applications/overlays that will present the user with lie/truth probabilities of a talking person - useful e.g. for politicians in TV debates. It could be video analysis, augmented reality overlays or somethin",45,,"modulus","silacoid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-21T12:45:12.000Z","2015-07-16T01:31:27.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, there will be commercial and/or free applications/overlays that will present the user with lie/truth probabilities of a talking person - useful e.g. for politicians in TV debates. It could be video analysis, augmented reality overlays or somethin",10,,"DaFranker","silacoid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-23T18:14:38.000Z","2015-07-16T01:31:27.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, there will be commercial and/or free applications/overlays that will present the user with lie/truth probabilities of a talking person - useful e.g. for politicians in TV debates. It could be video analysis, augmented reality overlays or somethin",55,,"themusicgod1","silacoid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T23:20:50.000Z","2015-07-16T01:31:27.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"2020s to be warmer than the 2010s",88,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T20:13:20.913Z","2015-07-18T21:21:55.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"2020s to be warmer than the 2010s",70,,"EloiseRosen","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-27T17:20:20.000Z","2015-07-18T21:21:55.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"2020s to be warmer than the 2010s",91,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T15:20:44.000Z","2015-07-18T21:21:55.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"2020s to be warmer than the 2010s",85,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-18T21:21:55.000Z","2015-07-18T21:21:55.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"2020s to be warmer than the 2010s",80,,"David","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-19T13:26:47.000Z","2015-07-18T21:21:55.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"2020s to be warmer than the 2010s",65,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T12:15:13.000Z","2015-07-18T21:21:55.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"2020s to be warmer than the 2010s",99,,"espore","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-02T20:59:16.000Z","2015-07-18T21:21:55.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"2020s to be warmer than the 2010s",90,,"penten","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-31T12:43:39.000Z","2015-07-18T21:21:55.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Assuming that this environment is not a simulation, humanity will not observe strong evidence for the existence of a technological alien (i.e. independently evolved) civilization before the minimum of {end of 2055, implementation of superintelligence}.",99,,"sh","sh",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-20T21:40:43.000Z","2015-07-20T21:40:43.000Z","2056-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Assuming that this environment is not a simulation, humanity will not observe strong evidence for the existence of a technological alien (i.e. independently evolved) civilization before the minimum of {end of 2055, implementation of superintelligence}.",99,,"ArturoGoosnargh","sh",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-25T17:40:49.000Z","2015-07-20T21:40:43.000Z","2056-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Assuming that this environment is not a simulation, humanity will not observe strong evidence for the existence of a technological alien (i.e. independently evolved) civilization before the minimum of {end of 2055, implementation of superintelligence}.",20,,"Madplatypus","sh",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-20T21:43:22.000Z","2015-07-20T21:40:43.000Z","2056-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Assuming that this environment is not a simulation, humanity will not observe strong evidence for the existence of a technological alien (i.e. independently evolved) civilization before the minimum of {end of 2055, implementation of superintelligence}.",99,,"David","sh",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-25T08:54:25.000Z","2015-07-20T21:40:43.000Z","2056-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Assuming that this environment is not a simulation, humanity will not observe strong evidence for the existence of a technological alien (i.e. independently evolved) civilization before the minimum of {end of 2055, implementation of superintelligence}.",90,,"espore","sh","It's not likely we will observe a technologically advanced alien civilization but the chance of finding extraterrestrial life (bacteria etc.) is much higher.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-02T21:04:49.000Z","2015-07-20T21:40:43.000Z","2056-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Assuming that this environment is not a simulation, humanity will not observe strong evidence for the existence of a technological alien (i.e. independently evolved) civilization before the minimum of {end of 2055, implementation of superintelligence}.",93,,"themusicgod1","sh",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T22:34:56.000Z","2015-07-20T21:40:43.000Z","2056-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Assuming that this environment is not a simulation, humanity will not observe strong evidence for the existence of a technological alien (i.e. independently evolved) civilization before the minimum of {end of 2055, implementation of superintelligence}.",95,,"themusicgod1","sh",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T23:16:56.000Z","2015-07-20T21:40:43.000Z","2056-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Assuming that this environment is not a simulation, humanity will not observe strong evidence for the existence of a technological alien (i.e. independently evolved) civilization before the minimum of {end of 2055, implementation of superintelligence}.",99,,"pranomostro","sh",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T22:51:50.000Z","2015-07-20T21:40:43.000Z","2056-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2020, the obesity rate among adults 20 years or older in the United States will drop from 34.9% in 2012 to 30%... +/- .9 percent.",25,,"JoshuaZ","Lissy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-04T01:40:53.000Z","2015-11-04T01:21:27.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2020, the obesity rate among adults 20 years or older in the United States will drop from 34.9% in 2012 to 30%... +/- .9 percent.",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","Lissy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-04T02:21:03.000Z","2015-11-04T01:21:27.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2020, the obesity rate among adults 20 years or older in the United States will drop from 34.9% in 2012 to 30%... +/- .9 percent.",10,,"danielfilan","Lissy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-05T02:25:32.000Z","2015-11-04T01:21:27.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2020, the obesity rate among adults 20 years or older in the United States will drop from 34.9% in 2012 to 30%... +/- .9 percent.",10,,"danpop","Lissy","Most likely it will remain stable",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-06T08:15:18.000Z","2015-11-04T01:21:27.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2020, the obesity rate among adults 20 years or older in the United States will drop from 34.9% in 2012 to 30%... +/- .9 percent.",19,,"themusicgod1","Lissy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-11T03:31:57.000Z","2015-11-04T01:21:27.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2020, the obesity rate among adults 20 years or older in the United States will drop from 34.9% in 2012 to 30%... +/- .9 percent.",70,,"Lissy","Lissy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-04T01:21:27.000Z","2015-11-04T01:21:27.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2020, the obesity rate among adults 20 years or older in the United States will drop from 34.9% in 2012 to 30%... +/- .9 percent.",5,,"EloiseRosen","Lissy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-04T01:30:19.000Z","2015-11-04T01:21:27.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one of the UK, France, Germany, US or China will not meet their goals committed at the UN climate change conference in Paris.",98,,"NickN","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T04:51:48.565Z","2015-12-17T13:47:24.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one of the UK, France, Germany, US or China will not meet their goals committed at the UN climate change conference in Paris.",88,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-17T13:47:24.000Z","2015-12-17T13:47:24.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one of the UK, France, Germany, US or China will not meet their goals committed at the UN climate change conference in Paris.",95,,"splorridge","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-17T14:20:40.000Z","2015-12-17T13:47:24.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one of the UK, France, Germany, US or China will not meet their goals committed at the UN climate change conference in Paris.",80,,"Medea","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-18T21:26:17.000Z","2015-12-17T13:47:24.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one of the UK, France, Germany, US or China will not meet their goals committed at the UN climate change conference in Paris.",90,,"sflicht","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-19T05:07:13.000Z","2015-12-17T13:47:24.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one of the UK, France, Germany, US or China will not meet their goals committed at the UN climate change conference in Paris.",70,,"PipFoweraker","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-30T00:07:03.000Z","2015-12-17T13:47:24.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one of the UK, France, Germany, US or China will not meet their goals committed at the UN climate change conference in Paris.",88,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-13T20:02:37.000Z","2015-12-17T13:47:24.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2020, more than half of the babies born that year are going to be genomically sequenced as soon as they're born.",0,,"NickN","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-19T02:43:51.772Z","2015-12-25T09:49:43.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2020, more than half of the babies born that year are going to be genomically sequenced as soon as they're born.",13,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-25T09:49:43.000Z","2015-12-25T09:49:43.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2020, more than half of the babies born that year are going to be genomically sequenced as soon as they're born.",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","themusicgod1","If you look the world per capita income, $1 000 is a considerable chunk of their yearly income for the majority of the world's population. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-26T07:22:07.000Z","2015-12-25T09:49:43.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2020, more than half of the babies born that year are going to be genomically sequenced as soon as they're born.",2,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","themusicgod1","I am assuming that this prediction applies worldwide.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-27T03:25:25.000Z","2015-12-25T09:49:43.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2020, more than half of the babies born that year are going to be genomically sequenced as soon as they're born.",1,,"PlacidPlatypus","themusicgod1","I doubt the statistics would be available immediately the day after the year ends, although three years might be a little excessive.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-28T15:22:37.000Z","2015-12-25T09:49:43.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2020, more than half of the babies born that year are going to be genomically sequenced as soon as they're born.",5,,"b5mith","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-02T23:02:34.000Z","2015-12-25T09:49:43.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2020, more than half of the babies born that year are going to be genomically sequenced as soon as they're born.",11,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1","I'm starting to agree with Raahul.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-12T13:36:25.000Z","2015-12-25T09:49:43.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2020, more than half of the babies born that year are going to be genomically sequenced as soon as they're born.",2,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-14T06:38:36.628Z","2015-12-25T09:49:43.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2020, more than half of the babies born that year are going to be genomically sequenced as soon as they're born.",0,,"Afforess","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-07T14:37:17.000Z","2015-12-25T09:49:43.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2020, more than half of the babies born that year are going to be genomically sequenced as soon as they're born.",13,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1","Attempt 3: 

Yes worldwide

I expect there to be issues in collecting this data by then, so I gave myself lots of time.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-10T03:11:25.000Z","2015-12-25T09:49:43.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"MDMA-mediated psychotherapy receives FDA approval in the next five years. ",10,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-03T21:55:23.000Z","2016-02-03T21:55:23.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"MDMA-mediated psychotherapy receives FDA approval in the next five years. ",0,,"jesselevine","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-14T17:05:43.000Z","2016-02-03T21:55:23.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"MDMA-mediated psychotherapy receives FDA approval in the next five years. ",50,,"mrmrpotatohead","NathanMcKnight","I'm going to assume this allows right up to the 31-12-2021.
I have heard John Gilmore speak about the plan for gaining FDA approval, and have spoken personally with some MAPs members about it also. They are fairly confident they will succeed.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-23T08:30:10.000Z","2016-02-03T21:55:23.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"MDMA-mediated psychotherapy receives FDA approval in the next five years. ",5,,"unexpectedEOF","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-04T01:32:42.000Z","2016-02-03T21:55:23.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"MDMA-mediated psychotherapy receives FDA approval in the next five years. ",2,,"daniel74f","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-06T01:25:02.000Z","2016-02-03T21:55:23.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"MDMA-mediated psychotherapy receives FDA approval in the next five years. ",2,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-14T17:02:28.000Z","2016-02-03T21:55:23.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"MDMA-mediated psychotherapy receives FDA approval in the next five years. ",14,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-14T17:44:07.000Z","2016-02-03T21:55:23.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cannabis will be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act before 2023",65,,"unexpectedEOF","unexpectedEOF",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-04T02:59:11.000Z","2016-02-04T02:59:11.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cannabis will be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act before 2023",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","unexpectedEOF","http://www.ibtimes.com/marijuana-legalization-could-2016-be-year-federal-law-derails-cannabis-movement-2258515",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-06T08:45:07.000Z","2016-02-04T02:59:11.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cannabis will be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act before 2023",58,,"JoshuaZ","unexpectedEOF",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-07T23:48:38.000Z","2016-02-04T02:59:11.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cannabis will be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act before 2023",45,,"EloiseRosen","unexpectedEOF",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-08T17:30:36.000Z","2016-02-04T02:59:11.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cannabis will be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act before 2023",60,,"equivrel","unexpectedEOF",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-14T00:26:43.000Z","2016-02-04T02:59:11.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cannabis will be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act before 2023",70,,"InquilineKea","unexpectedEOF","I wonder if the possible polarity change in the SCOTUS could affect this...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-14T02:09:50.000Z","2016-02-04T02:59:11.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cannabis will be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act before 2023",44,,"JoshuaZ","unexpectedEOF",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T19:02:10.325Z","2016-02-04T02:59:11.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cannabis will be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act before 2023",13,,"themusicgod1","unexpectedEOF","Optimism.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-20T03:49:19.000Z","2016-02-04T02:59:11.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2023",64,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Updating per lack of apparent progress. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-22T02:01:35.594Z","2016-03-23T17:26:25.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2023",85,,"Medea","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-09T12:52:10.565Z","2016-03-23T17:26:25.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2023",92,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-23T20:37:03.000Z","2016-03-23T17:26:25.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2023",5,,"Raahul_Kumar","JoshuaZ","None of the existing bots uses neural net algorithms. AlphaGo is unlikely, I repeat again assuming that AlphaGo does not come. If AlphaGo is coming then 100% chance.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-24T12:20:46.000Z","2016-03-23T17:26:25.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2023",80,,"PlacidPlatypus","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-24T16:33:56.000Z","2016-03-23T17:26:25.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2023",60,,"ioannes","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-26T17:10:04.000Z","2016-03-23T17:26:25.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2023",85,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Reducing confidence per failure of https://predictionbook.com/predictions/177723 ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T14:16:21.828Z","2016-03-23T17:26:25.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2023",88,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-23T17:26:25.000Z","2016-03-23T17:26:25.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2023",60,,"bitbatbot","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-03T08:29:25.000Z","2016-03-23T17:26:25.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within fifty (50) years, what is today known as the Panama Papers will be *generally agreed upon* to have been leaked by a US Govt operation. Similar to how the NYTimes says (but both governments deny) that Stuxnet was a joint US/Israel operation.",95,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-04T23:18:04.000Z","2016-04-04T23:18:04.000Z","2066-04-05T07:00:00.000Z"
"Within fifty (50) years, what is today known as the Panama Papers will be *generally agreed upon* to have been leaked by a US Govt operation. Similar to how the NYTimes says (but both governments deny) that Stuxnet was a joint US/Israel operation.",46,,"themusicgod1","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-05T05:09:46.000Z","2016-04-04T23:18:04.000Z","2066-04-05T07:00:00.000Z"
"Within fifty (50) years, what is today known as the Panama Papers will be *generally agreed upon* to have been leaked by a US Govt operation. Similar to how the NYTimes says (but both governments deny) that Stuxnet was a joint US/Israel operation.",4,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-07T05:28:29.000Z","2016-04-04T23:18:04.000Z","2066-04-05T07:00:00.000Z"
"Within fifty (50) years, what is today known as the Panama Papers will be *generally agreed upon* to have been leaked by a US Govt operation. Similar to how the NYTimes says (but both governments deny) that Stuxnet was a joint US/Israel operation.",2,,"aarongertler","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-11T20:45:26.000Z","2016-04-04T23:18:04.000Z","2066-04-05T07:00:00.000Z"
"Within fifty (50) years, what is today known as the Panama Papers will be *generally agreed upon* to have been leaked by a US Govt operation. Similar to how the NYTimes says (but both governments deny) that Stuxnet was a joint US/Israel operation.",4,,"EloiseRosen","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-14T03:01:59.000Z","2016-04-04T23:18:04.000Z","2066-04-05T07:00:00.000Z"
"Within fifty (50) years, what is today known as the Panama Papers will be *generally agreed upon* to have been leaked by a US Govt operation. Similar to how the NYTimes says (but both governments deny) that Stuxnet was a joint US/Israel operation.",1,,"JoshuaZ","two2thehead","Seems unlikely. A government operation would have been far more targeted or they would have kept the info and used it. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-04T23:46:51.000Z","2016-04-04T23:18:04.000Z","2066-04-05T07:00:00.000Z"
"Within fifty (50) years, what is today known as the Panama Papers will be *generally agreed upon* to have been leaked by a US Govt operation. Similar to how the NYTimes says (but both governments deny) that Stuxnet was a joint US/Israel operation.",3,,"JoshuaZ","two2thehead","Still, some of it (like e.g. the Prime Minister of Iceland is on the take and doing exactly what he was elected not to do) could have more use. But yeah,I see the point. Updating accordingly. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-07T14:58:22.000Z","2016-04-04T23:18:04.000Z","2066-04-05T07:00:00.000Z"
"Within fifty (50) years, what is today known as the Panama Papers will be *generally agreed upon* to have been leaked by a US Govt operation. Similar to how the NYTimes says (but both governments deny) that Stuxnet was a joint US/Israel operation.",5,,"trishume","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-16T04:29:59.000Z","2016-04-04T23:18:04.000Z","2066-04-05T07:00:00.000Z"
"Surface of the earth still habitable for human beings by 2050 (whether or not human beings are, in fact, on the surface)",60,,"NickN","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-22T13:54:38.915Z","2016-06-20T23:07:41.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Surface of the earth still habitable for human beings by 2050 (whether or not human beings are, in fact, on the surface)",53,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-20T23:07:41.000Z","2016-06-20T23:07:41.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Surface of the earth still habitable for human beings by 2050 (whether or not human beings are, in fact, on the surface)",92,,"PlacidPlatypus","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-21T19:23:23.000Z","2016-06-20T23:07:41.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Surface of the earth still habitable for human beings by 2050 (whether or not human beings are, in fact, on the surface)",85,,"Osuniev","themusicgod1","For some humans ? Sure. For 12 billions ? Probably not. Expecting huge migration, wars and famine. But inhabitable ? Only nuclear war seems to make that plausible.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-21T01:51:38.000Z","2016-06-20T23:07:41.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Surface of the earth still habitable for human beings by 2050 (whether or not human beings are, in fact, on the surface)",90,,"Medea","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-21T07:49:38.000Z","2016-06-20T23:07:41.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Surface of the earth still habitable for human beings by 2050 (whether or not human beings are, in fact, on the surface)",75,,"splorridge","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-21T08:03:41.000Z","2016-06-20T23:07:41.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Surface of the earth still habitable for human beings by 2050 (whether or not human beings are, in fact, on the surface)",88,,"Paul.David.Carr","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-21T20:01:41.000Z","2016-06-20T23:07:41.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one journalist/blogger jailed for criticizing President Trump",10,,"elephantower","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-31T19:08:35.000Z","2016-07-31T14:27:27.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one journalist/blogger jailed for criticizing President Trump",5,,"sflicht","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-16T10:00:39.000Z","2016-07-31T14:27:27.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one journalist/blogger jailed for criticizing President Trump",4,,"splorridge","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-17T11:07:27.000Z","2016-07-31T14:27:27.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one journalist/blogger jailed for criticizing President Trump",77,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-19T23:51:21.000Z","2016-07-31T14:27:27.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one journalist/blogger jailed for criticizing President Trump",10,,"splorridge","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-09T16:00:01.000Z","2016-07-31T14:27:27.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one journalist/blogger jailed for criticizing President Trump",12,,"JoshuaZ","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-09T23:23:22.000Z","2016-07-31T14:27:27.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one journalist/blogger jailed for criticizing President Trump",42,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-31T14:27:27.000Z","2016-07-31T14:27:27.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one journalist/blogger jailed for criticizing President Trump",4,,"Bruno Parga","themusicgod1","~40% on Trump winning, 10% on it actually happening if he does.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-01T04:47:02.000Z","2016-07-31T14:27:27.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one journalist/blogger jailed for criticizing President Trump",1,,"two2thehead","themusicgod1","Zero point zero four (Twenty percent times twenty percent). I'm putting it one percent because it's not zero.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-22T03:28:02.000Z","2016-07-31T14:27:27.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The ""Steamboat Willie"" cartoon featuring Mickey Mouse will enter the public domain in 2023 or earlier",85,,"PlacidPlatypus","btrettel","Disney is still powerful but I think there's more public awareness of IP law and the importance of the public domain than there used to be. I'd be surprised if it got extended again at this point.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-21T19:49:22.497Z","2016-09-12T19:21:41.000Z","2024-01-02T11:00:00.000Z"
"The ""Steamboat Willie"" cartoon featuring Mickey Mouse will enter the public domain in 2023 or earlier",40,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-12T19:21:41.000Z","2016-09-12T19:21:41.000Z","2024-01-02T11:00:00.000Z"
"The ""Steamboat Willie"" cartoon featuring Mickey Mouse will enter the public domain in 2023 or earlier",6,,"themusicgod1","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-14T07:03:20.000Z","2016-09-12T19:21:41.000Z","2024-01-02T11:00:00.000Z"
"The ""Steamboat Willie"" cartoon featuring Mickey Mouse will enter the public domain in 2023 or earlier",60,,"PlacidPlatypus","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-15T19:19:41.000Z","2016-09-12T19:21:41.000Z","2024-01-02T11:00:00.000Z"
"The ""Steamboat Willie"" cartoon featuring Mickey Mouse will enter the public domain in 2023 or earlier",40,,"penten","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T13:00:18.000Z","2016-09-12T19:21:41.000Z","2024-01-02T11:00:00.000Z"
"The ""Steamboat Willie"" cartoon featuring Mickey Mouse will enter the public domain in 2023 or earlier",10,,"finback","btrettel","I'm seeing that the copyright is currently scheduled to expire 1/1/24. I think it's very unlikely to happen *earlier* than scheduled",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-25T00:41:33.563Z","2016-09-12T19:21:41.000Z","2024-01-02T11:00:00.000Z"
"The ""Steamboat Willie"" cartoon featuring Mickey Mouse will enter the public domain in 2023 or earlier",5,,"Matt","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-12T22:16:02.000Z","2016-09-12T19:21:41.000Z","2024-01-02T11:00:00.000Z"
"The ""Steamboat Willie"" cartoon featuring Mickey Mouse will enter the public domain in 2023 or earlier",15,,"Michael Dickens","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-13T03:09:46.000Z","2016-09-12T19:21:41.000Z","2024-01-02T11:00:00.000Z"
"AGI is developed by 2050 (on Earth)",97,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-13T06:48:23.942Z","2017-01-18T04:21:11.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"AGI is developed by 2050 (on Earth)",95,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-07T13:05:10.523Z","2017-01-18T04:21:11.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"AGI is developed by 2050 (on Earth)",20,,"themusicgod1","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-18T17:51:52.000Z","2017-01-18T04:21:11.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"AGI is developed by 2050 (on Earth)",33,,"themusicgod1","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-18T15:34:43.000Z","2017-01-18T04:21:11.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"AGI is developed by 2050 (on Earth)",60,,"ccokeefe","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-21T06:37:27.000Z","2017-01-18T04:21:11.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"AGI is developed by 2050 (on Earth)",90,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-17T07:59:57.127Z","2017-01-18T04:21:11.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"AGI is developed by 2050 (on Earth)",60,,"Baeboo","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-13T09:15:59.484Z","2017-01-18T04:21:11.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"AGI is developed by 2050 (on Earth)",2,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-18T04:21:11.000Z","2017-01-18T04:21:11.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"AGI is developed by 2050 (on Earth)",70,,"Bruno Parga","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-17T16:11:46.000Z","2017-01-18T04:21:11.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"AGI is developed by 2050 (on Earth)",47,,"themusicgod1","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-18T15:34:06.000Z","2017-01-18T04:21:11.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"AGI is developed by 2050 (on Earth)",35,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T16:24:57.670Z","2017-01-18T04:21:11.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The internet dies.  Functionally the internet is no more with no IP replacement",0,,"NickN","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-17T01:15:03.509Z","2017-01-19T05:03:29.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The internet dies.  Functionally the internet is no more with no IP replacement",8,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-19T05:03:29.000Z","2017-01-19T05:03:29.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The internet dies.  Functionally the internet is no more with no IP replacement",2,,"Michael Dickens","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-20T18:30:20.000Z","2017-01-19T05:03:29.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The internet dies.  Functionally the internet is no more with no IP replacement",0,,"ioannes","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-20T23:50:36.000Z","2017-01-19T05:03:29.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The internet dies.  Functionally the internet is no more with no IP replacement",0,,"rmeador","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-31T18:43:43.000Z","2017-01-19T05:03:29.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The internet dies.  Functionally the internet is no more with no IP replacement",0,,"bobpage","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-27T08:09:00.000Z","2017-01-19T05:03:29.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The internet dies.  Functionally the internet is no more with no IP replacement",0,,"Baeboo","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-14T06:32:28.000Z","2017-01-19T05:03:29.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US President Zuckerberg ",13,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-03T19:39:29.000Z","2017-09-03T19:39:29.000Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US President Zuckerberg ",2,,"Baeboo","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-09T08:29:49.000Z","2017-09-03T19:39:29.000Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US President Zuckerberg ",5,,"Flenser","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-08T23:47:42.000Z","2017-09-03T19:39:29.000Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US President Zuckerberg ",0,,"arrowinthedark","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-12T02:29:01.673Z","2017-09-03T19:39:29.000Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US President Zuckerberg ",1,,"lwbayes91","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-12T01:05:21.000Z","2017-09-03T19:39:29.000Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US President Zuckerberg ",0,,"Dapple","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-01T15:43:32.000Z","2017-09-03T19:39:29.000Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US President Zuckerberg ",5,,"rmeador","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-02T18:50:19.000Z","2017-09-03T19:39:29.000Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US President Zuckerberg ",1,,"Baeboo","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-03T03:47:15.000Z","2017-09-03T19:39:29.000Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Apple will ship an iPhone with no ports before the end of 2020.",75,,"jamesrom","jamesrom",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-02T06:27:38.000Z","2017-11-02T06:27:38.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Apple will ship an iPhone with no ports before the end of 2020.",70,,"Athrithalix","jamesrom",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-02T12:13:32.000Z","2017-11-02T06:27:38.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Apple will ship an iPhone with no ports before the end of 2020.",51,,"themusicgod1","jamesrom",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-02T14:26:05.000Z","2017-11-02T06:27:38.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Apple will ship an iPhone with no ports before the end of 2020.",45,,"xzvf","jamesrom",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-06T17:15:36.000Z","2017-11-02T06:27:38.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Apple will ship an iPhone with no ports before the end of 2020.",65,,"Flenser","jamesrom",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-08T23:06:47.000Z","2017-11-02T06:27:38.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Apple will ship an iPhone with no ports before the end of 2020.",70,,"Medea","jamesrom",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-10T15:23:57.000Z","2017-11-02T06:27:38.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Apple will ship an iPhone with no ports before the end of 2020.",35,,"davatk","jamesrom",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-24T05:26:21.000Z","2017-11-02T06:27:38.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Roe v. Wade and related precedents (e.g. Casey) effectively overturned by December 31, 2025. ",40,,"Medea","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-07-09T14:53:17.000Z","2018-06-29T19:38:00.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Roe v. Wade and related precedents (e.g. Casey) effectively overturned by December 31, 2025. ",40,,"phi","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-05T22:29:55.000Z","2018-06-29T19:38:00.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Roe v. Wade and related precedents (e.g. Casey) effectively overturned by December 31, 2025. ",30,,"Elly-Immeska","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-01T06:36:53.000Z","2018-06-29T19:38:00.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Roe v. Wade and related precedents (e.g. Casey) effectively overturned by December 31, 2025. ",40,,"NickN","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T19:31:33.683Z","2018-06-29T19:38:00.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Roe v. Wade and related precedents (e.g. Casey) effectively overturned by December 31, 2025. ",55,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-06-29T19:38:00.000Z","2018-06-29T19:38:00.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Roe v. Wade and related precedents (e.g. Casey) effectively overturned by December 31, 2025. ",58,,"aarongertler","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-07-07T17:43:35.000Z","2018-06-29T19:38:00.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Roe v. Wade and related precedents (e.g. Casey) effectively overturned by December 31, 2025. ",35,,"JTPeterson","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-07-16T21:24:09.000Z","2018-06-29T19:38:00.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX will land people on Mars prior to 2030",25,,"Baeboo","lukefreeman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T05:13:19.348Z","2018-08-28T03:16:20.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX will land people on Mars prior to 2030",50,,"pranomostro","lukefreeman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-02T20:40:43.000Z","2018-08-28T03:16:20.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX will land people on Mars prior to 2030",45,,"JTPeterson","lukefreeman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-01T14:03:55.000Z","2018-08-28T03:16:20.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX will land people on Mars prior to 2030",65,,"lukefreeman","lukefreeman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-08-28T03:16:20.000Z","2018-08-28T03:16:20.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX will land people on Mars prior to 2030",60,,"avi","lukefreeman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-09T17:41:13.000Z","2018-08-28T03:16:20.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX will land people on Mars prior to 2030",40,,"MultiplyByZer0","lukefreeman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-23T22:25:06.000Z","2018-08-28T03:16:20.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX will land people on Mars prior to 2030",80,,"avi","lukefreeman","Elon musk has stated that it is possible as soon as 7 years from now.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-26T01:49:30.000Z","2018-08-28T03:16:20.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX will land people on Mars prior to 2030",42,,"Baeboo","lukefreeman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-26T04:23:55.000Z","2018-08-28T03:16:20.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX will land people on Mars prior to 2030",5,,"telegrafista","lukefreeman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-14T16:08:35.383Z","2018-08-28T03:16:20.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Vladimir Putin won't be the President of the Russian Federation by March 2024 (i.e. he won't be able to finish his 4th term)",40,,"Stommelen","Stommelen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-21T05:31:45.551Z","2018-12-21T05:31:45.537Z","2024-03-17T12:00:00.000Z"
"Vladimir Putin won't be the President of the Russian Federation by March 2024 (i.e. he won't be able to finish his 4th term)",20,,"amadeu","Stommelen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-31T15:11:43.933Z","2018-12-21T05:31:45.537Z","2024-03-17T12:00:00.000Z"
"Vladimir Putin won't be the President of the Russian Federation by March 2024 (i.e. he won't be able to finish his 4th term)",25,,"Baeboo","Stommelen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T18:45:21.438Z","2018-12-21T05:31:45.537Z","2024-03-17T12:00:00.000Z"
"Vladimir Putin won't be the President of the Russian Federation by March 2024 (i.e. he won't be able to finish his 4th term)",30,,"pranomostro","Stommelen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-21T17:02:56.281Z","2018-12-21T05:31:45.537Z","2024-03-17T12:00:00.000Z"
"Vladimir Putin won't be the President of the Russian Federation by March 2024 (i.e. he won't be able to finish his 4th term)",5,,"aoeu","Stommelen","He'll be 71",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-12T14:28:52.584Z","2018-12-21T05:31:45.537Z","2024-03-17T12:00:00.000Z"
"Vladimir Putin won't be the President of the Russian Federation by March 2024 (i.e. he won't be able to finish his 4th term)",10,,"Bruno Parga","Stommelen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-03T17:29:49.464Z","2018-12-21T05:31:45.537Z","2024-03-17T12:00:00.000Z"
"Vladimir Putin won't be the President of the Russian Federation by March 2024 (i.e. he won't be able to finish his 4th term)",15,,"Medea","Stommelen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-11T09:01:36.167Z","2018-12-21T05:31:45.537Z","2024-03-17T12:00:00.000Z"
"Vladimir Putin won't be the President of the Russian Federation by March 2024 (i.e. he won't be able to finish his 4th term)",22,,"Baeboo","Stommelen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-12T22:16:41.452Z","2018-12-21T05:31:45.537Z","2024-03-17T12:00:00.000Z"
"Donald Trump is still president",70,,"avi","Coagulopath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-13T04:46:10.987Z","2019-02-13T00:19:44.170Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Donald Trump is still president",75,,"Baeboo","Coagulopath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-14T02:59:49.866Z","2019-02-13T00:19:44.170Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Donald Trump is still president",75,,"Cato","Coagulopath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-18T07:48:08.334Z","2019-02-13T00:19:44.170Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Donald Trump is still president",96,,"Baeboo","Coagulopath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T05:26:38.015Z","2019-02-13T00:19:44.170Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Donald Trump is still president",95,,"Baeboo","Coagulopath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-23T07:55:56.401Z","2019-02-13T00:19:44.170Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Donald Trump is still president",60,,"avi","Coagulopath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-22T22:41:02.703Z","2019-02-13T00:19:44.170Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Donald Trump is still president",80,,"Coagulopath","Coagulopath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-13T00:19:44.188Z","2019-02-13T00:19:44.170Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Donald Trump is still president",77,,"pranomostro","Coagulopath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-14T19:58:47.358Z","2019-02-13T00:19:44.170Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Donald Trump is still president",88,,"6thNapoleon","Coagulopath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-24T18:45:01.619Z","2019-02-13T00:19:44.170Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Donald Trump is still president",84,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Coagulopath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-25T11:43:03.328Z","2019-02-13T00:19:44.170Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Donald Trump is still president",90,,"6thNapoleon","Coagulopath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-25T18:31:36.210Z","2019-02-13T00:19:44.170Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Donald Trump is still president",95,,"Cato","Coagulopath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-27T17:26:30.896Z","2019-02-13T00:19:44.170Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Donald Trump is still president",86,,"Baeboo","Coagulopath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-25T02:15:33.402Z","2019-02-13T00:19:44.170Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"No new American bootprints on the moon by the end of Calendar Year 2024.",91,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Paul.David.Carr","Oops, my predictions aren't consistent :) Fixed. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-09T01:06:56.486Z","2019-06-01T17:07:02.493Z","2025-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"No new American bootprints on the moon by the end of Calendar Year 2024.",90,,"Medea","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-06-14T09:12:14.909Z","2019-06-01T17:07:02.493Z","2025-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"No new American bootprints on the moon by the end of Calendar Year 2024.",90,,"stepan","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-06-11T06:48:04.138Z","2019-06-01T17:07:02.493Z","2025-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"No new American bootprints on the moon by the end of Calendar Year 2024.",75,,"Paul.David.Carr","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-06-01T17:07:02.508Z","2019-06-01T17:07:02.493Z","2025-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"No new American bootprints on the moon by the end of Calendar Year 2024.",90,,"pranomostro","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-06-04T19:28:10.903Z","2019-06-01T17:07:02.493Z","2025-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"No new American bootprints on the moon by the end of Calendar Year 2024.",85,,"amadeu","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-06-08T22:47:52.833Z","2019-06-01T17:07:02.493Z","2025-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"No new American bootprints on the moon by the end of Calendar Year 2024.",68,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-09T01:05:32.741Z","2019-06-01T17:07:02.493Z","2025-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"No new American bootprints on the moon by the end of Calendar Year 2024.",95,,"chemotaxis101","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-06-30T18:50:19.690Z","2019-06-01T17:07:02.493Z","2025-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Google still has more than 66% market share for search by 2030",60,,"Baeboo","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T07:05:51.473Z","2020-01-03T13:03:51.250Z","2030-12-31T11:00:00.000Z"
"Google still has more than 66% market share for search by 2030",70,,"optimaton","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-04T09:33:10.255Z","2020-01-03T13:03:51.250Z","2030-12-31T11:00:00.000Z"
"Google still has more than 66% market share for search by 2030",70,,"Bruno Parga","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-04T01:05:19.812Z","2020-01-03T13:03:51.250Z","2030-12-31T11:00:00.000Z"
"Google still has more than 66% market share for search by 2030",75,,"bcongdon","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T04:37:20.624Z","2020-01-03T13:03:51.250Z","2030-12-31T11:00:00.000Z"
"Google still has more than 66% market share for search by 2030",90,,"pranomostro","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-11T16:16:11.503Z","2020-01-03T13:03:51.250Z","2030-12-31T11:00:00.000Z"
"Google still has more than 66% market share for search by 2030",85,,"sty.silver","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T20:04:13.054Z","2020-01-03T13:03:51.250Z","2030-12-31T11:00:00.000Z"
"Google still has more than 66% market share for search by 2030",85,,"Baeboo","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-04T17:52:58.393Z","2020-01-03T13:03:51.250Z","2030-12-31T11:00:00.000Z"
"Google still has more than 66% market share for search by 2030",80,,"qznc","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-03T13:03:51.254Z","2020-01-03T13:03:51.250Z","2030-12-31T11:00:00.000Z"
"January 1,  2025",1,,"Medea","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-13T15:17:51.766Z","2020-01-23T21:49:19.339Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"January 1,  2025",1,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-05T16:11:54.001Z","2020-01-23T21:49:19.339Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"January 1,  2025",0,,"mroverlord","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-30T21:02:37.161Z","2020-01-23T21:49:19.339Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"January 1,  2025",0,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-28T09:24:43.975Z","2020-01-23T21:49:19.339Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"January 1,  2025",1,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-23T21:49:19.343Z","2020-01-23T21:49:19.339Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"January 1,  2025",1,,"peter_hurford","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-26T05:08:33.874Z","2020-01-23T21:49:19.339Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"January 1,  2025",1,,"Bruno Parga","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-24T16:07:50.402Z","2020-01-23T21:49:19.339Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Triplebyte will no longer exist as a company on August 20 2021, and if sold will have sold for less than $48.1M.",22,,"finback","enolan","(78% chance of still existing/sold for more than 48.1M) Given the shift to remote work and hiring, if they run out of money I think it's likely they're able to raise again -- they'll have a good story.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-20T15:22:05.378Z","2020-03-21T02:36:37.027Z","2021-08-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Triplebyte will no longer exist as a company on August 20 2021, and if sold will have sold for less than $48.1M.",25,,"sh","enolan",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-21T19:45:39.027Z","2020-03-21T02:36:37.027Z","2021-08-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Triplebyte will no longer exist as a company on August 20 2021, and if sold will have sold for less than $48.1M.",28,,"pranomostro","enolan",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-21T14:31:25.052Z","2020-03-21T02:36:37.027Z","2021-08-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Triplebyte will no longer exist as a company on August 20 2021, and if sold will have sold for less than $48.1M.",30,,"daveisright","enolan",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-21T04:54:01.982Z","2020-03-21T02:36:37.027Z","2021-08-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Triplebyte will no longer exist as a company on August 20 2021, and if sold will have sold for less than $48.1M.",80,,"enolan","enolan",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-21T02:36:37.032Z","2020-03-21T02:36:37.027Z","2021-08-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Triplebyte will no longer exist as a company on August 20 2021, and if sold will have sold for less than $48.1M.",43,,"credunkist","enolan","that is, 57% will still exist or have been sold for more than 48.1M",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-03T15:22:15.753Z","2020-03-21T02:36:37.027Z","2021-08-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Triplebyte will no longer exist as a company on August 20 2021, and if sold will have sold for less than $48.1M.",20,,"sty.silver","enolan",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-22T07:54:45.628Z","2020-03-21T02:36:37.027Z","2021-08-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"S&P 500 index dips below 2000 in year of 2020",60,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-03T07:09:17.783Z","2020-03-27T02:15:38.727Z","2020-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"S&P 500 index dips below 2000 in year of 2020",20,,"aphel","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-12T18:26:48.231Z","2020-03-27T02:15:38.727Z","2020-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"S&P 500 index dips below 2000 in year of 2020",1,,"Baeboo","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T07:14:29.466Z","2020-03-27T02:15:38.727Z","2020-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"S&P 500 index dips below 2000 in year of 2020",10,,"enolan","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-19T22:59:20.575Z","2020-03-27T02:15:38.727Z","2020-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"S&P 500 index dips below 2000 in year of 2020",15,,"Baeboo","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-04T02:28:27.939Z","2020-03-27T02:15:38.727Z","2020-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"S&P 500 index dips below 2000 in year of 2020",12,,"azatris","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-18T10:51:55.299Z","2020-03-27T02:15:38.727Z","2020-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"S&P 500 index dips below 2000 in year of 2020",55,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-15T04:37:40.458Z","2020-03-27T02:15:38.727Z","2020-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"S&P 500 index dips below 2000 in year of 2020",30,,"enolan","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-05T00:24:49.961Z","2020-03-27T02:15:38.727Z","2020-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"S&P 500 index dips below 2000 in year of 2020",80,,"pranomostro","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-27T16:57:16.516Z","2020-03-27T02:15:38.727Z","2020-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"S&P 500 index dips below 2000 in year of 2020",70,,"batemancapital","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-27T02:15:38.741Z","2020-03-27T02:15:38.727Z","2020-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"US deaths attributed to covid19 will be in the range 80,000 to 500,000 by next April.",30,,"qznc","credunkist",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-06T18:35:26.410Z","2020-04-03T15:34:15.522Z","2021-04-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US deaths attributed to covid19 will be in the range 80,000 to 500,000 by next April.",70,,"sjy","credunkist",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-06T09:56:02.714Z","2020-04-03T15:34:15.522Z","2021-04-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US deaths attributed to covid19 will be in the range 80,000 to 500,000 by next April.",85,,"credunkist","credunkist",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-03T15:34:15.526Z","2020-04-03T15:34:15.522Z","2021-04-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US deaths attributed to covid19 will be in the range 80,000 to 500,000 by next April.",80,,"NickN","credunkist",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T02:38:31.193Z","2020-04-03T15:34:15.522Z","2021-04-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US deaths attributed to covid19 will be in the range 80,000 to 500,000 by next April.",90,,"keren14","credunkist",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-16T16:22:16.632Z","2020-04-03T15:34:15.522Z","2021-04-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US deaths attributed to covid19 will be in the range 80,000 to 500,000 by next April.",30,,"EvanWard97","credunkist","I think it will most likely be higher.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-15T15:21:40.239Z","2020-04-03T15:34:15.522Z","2021-04-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US deaths attributed to covid19 will be in the range 80,000 to 500,000 by next April.",80,,"zealots","credunkist",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-03T16:12:26.363Z","2020-04-03T15:34:15.522Z","2021-04-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Republicans hold Senate in 2020 election",88,,"PlacidPlatypus","Deepak","Looking like it all comes down to Georgia runoffs. Deadline should be extended.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-07T19:55:04.352Z","2020-06-11T16:22:59.277Z","2021-01-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Republicans hold Senate in 2020 election",32,,"JoshuaZ","Deepak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-17T23:50:10.791Z","2020-06-11T16:22:59.277Z","2021-01-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Republicans hold Senate in 2020 election",55,,"amadeu","Deepak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-17T20:30:08.093Z","2020-06-11T16:22:59.277Z","2021-01-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Republicans hold Senate in 2020 election",30,,"InquilineKea","Deepak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-11T18:19:24.748Z","2020-06-11T16:22:59.277Z","2021-01-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Republicans hold Senate in 2020 election",60,,"Deepak","Deepak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-09T21:05:54.315Z","2020-06-11T16:22:59.277Z","2021-01-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Republicans hold Senate in 2020 election",50,,"NickN","Deepak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-30T13:06:52.704Z","2020-06-11T16:22:59.277Z","2021-01-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Republicans hold Senate in 2020 election",40,,"amadeu","Deepak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-12T21:03:01.520Z","2020-06-11T16:22:59.277Z","2021-01-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Republicans hold Senate in 2020 election",29,,"JoshuaZ","Deepak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-09T23:23:10.550Z","2020-06-11T16:22:59.277Z","2021-01-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Republicans hold Senate in 2020 election",40,,"sty.silver","Deepak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-11T18:36:00.876Z","2020-06-11T16:22:59.277Z","2021-01-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Republicans hold Senate in 2020 election",90,,"Deepak","Deepak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-11T16:22:59.280Z","2020-06-11T16:22:59.277Z","2021-01-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Derek Chauvin will be convicted of murder",70,,"contra","enolan","Ironclad video evidence, a national outcry, a reckoning among major institutions; the only thing that could lead a non-guilty verdict is jury tampering.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-21T02:32:40.213Z","2020-06-17T19:29:30.093Z","2020-12-17T19:29:30.000Z"
"Derek Chauvin will be convicted of murder",80,,"MultiplyByZer0","enolan",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-20T02:31:08.629Z","2020-06-17T19:29:30.093Z","2020-12-17T19:29:30.000Z"
"Derek Chauvin will be convicted of murder",18,,"JoshuaZ","enolan",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-19T15:55:30.358Z","2020-06-17T19:29:30.093Z","2020-12-17T19:29:30.000Z"
"Derek Chauvin will be convicted of murder",60,,"azatris","enolan",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-23T11:43:32.188Z","2020-06-17T19:29:30.093Z","2020-12-17T19:29:30.000Z"
"Derek Chauvin will be convicted of murder",90,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","enolan",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-23T04:24:16.805Z","2020-06-17T19:29:30.093Z","2020-12-17T19:29:30.000Z"
"Derek Chauvin will be convicted of murder",60,,"Deepak","enolan","Third degree charge makes this seem more likely to me",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-20T02:38:25.178Z","2020-06-17T19:29:30.093Z","2020-12-17T19:29:30.000Z"
"Derek Chauvin will be convicted of murder",30,,"enolan","enolan",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-17T19:29:30.099Z","2020-06-17T19:29:30.093Z","2020-12-17T19:29:30.000Z"
"Another Supreme Court justice will retire before the end of the year.",8,,"PlacidPlatypus","contra",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-21T19:58:45.903Z","2020-07-01T14:06:38.074Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Another Supreme Court justice will retire before the end of the year.",50,,"stepan","contra",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-08T17:32:06.126Z","2020-07-01T14:06:38.074Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Another Supreme Court justice will retire before the end of the year.",56,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","contra",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-03T06:55:07.399Z","2020-07-01T14:06:38.074Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Another Supreme Court justice will retire before the end of the year.",50,,"contra","contra",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-01T14:06:38.080Z","2020-07-01T14:06:38.074Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Another Supreme Court justice will retire before the end of the year.",15,,"NickN","contra",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T00:29:58.237Z","2020-07-01T14:06:38.074Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Another Supreme Court justice will retire before the end of the year.",40,,"PlacidPlatypus","contra",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-09T18:18:21.149Z","2020-07-01T14:06:38.074Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Another Supreme Court justice will retire before the end of the year.",70,,"Deepak","contra",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-09T15:27:35.826Z","2020-07-01T14:06:38.074Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Another Supreme Court justice will retire before the end of the year.",55,,"JoshuaZ","contra",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-01T14:25:17.378Z","2020-07-01T14:06:38.074Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden (or replacement Democrat) wins the popular vote by a margin of 8% or more",32,,"JoshuaZ","PlacidPlatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-10T00:30:48.761Z","2020-07-09T18:32:17.486Z","2020-11-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden (or replacement Democrat) wins the popular vote by a margin of 8% or more",50,,"PlacidPlatypus","PlacidPlatypus","538 now showing Biden up 10% in the national polling average and 8% in the average case popular vote projection.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-09T18:40:51.502Z","2020-07-09T18:32:17.486Z","2020-11-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden (or replacement Democrat) wins the popular vote by a margin of 8% or more",10,,"NickN","PlacidPlatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-30T17:51:20.147Z","2020-07-09T18:32:17.486Z","2020-11-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden (or replacement Democrat) wins the popular vote by a margin of 8% or more",60,,"unexpectedEOF","PlacidPlatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-19T04:27:30.075Z","2020-07-09T18:32:17.486Z","2020-11-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden (or replacement Democrat) wins the popular vote by a margin of 8% or more",22,,"JoshuaZ","PlacidPlatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-18T15:36:34.309Z","2020-07-09T18:32:17.486Z","2020-11-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden (or replacement Democrat) wins the popular vote by a margin of 8% or more",20,,"EloiseRosen","PlacidPlatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-18T14:21:57.486Z","2020-07-09T18:32:17.486Z","2020-11-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden (or replacement Democrat) wins the popular vote by a margin of 8% or more",35,,"amadeu","PlacidPlatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-17T20:20:03.573Z","2020-07-09T18:32:17.486Z","2020-11-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden (or replacement Democrat) wins the popular vote by a margin of 8% or more",1,,"amadeu","PlacidPlatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-09T17:00:27.326Z","2020-07-09T18:32:17.486Z","2020-11-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden (or replacement Democrat) wins the popular vote by a margin of 8% or more",50,,"gwillen","PlacidPlatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-11T21:53:34.114Z","2020-07-09T18:32:17.486Z","2020-11-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden (or replacement Democrat) wins the popular vote by a margin of 8% or more",40,,"PlacidPlatypus","PlacidPlatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-09T18:32:17.496Z","2020-07-09T18:32:17.486Z","2020-11-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"One or more participants in the Twitter hack is revealed to have been an employee of the Russian government",5,,"azatris","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-20T14:07:46.808Z","2020-07-18T10:45:40.936Z","2028-01-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"One or more participants in the Twitter hack is revealed to have been an employee of the Russian government",2,,"Baeboo","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-19T08:44:17.413Z","2020-07-18T10:45:40.936Z","2028-01-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"One or more participants in the Twitter hack is revealed to have been an employee of the Russian government",9,,"EloiseRosen","Tapetum-Lucidum","same reason as ayegill",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-18T14:13:59.829Z","2020-07-18T10:45:40.936Z","2028-01-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"One or more participants in the Twitter hack is revealed to have been an employee of the Russian government",10,,"ayegill","Tapetum-Lucidum","Seems like very little was accomplished poltically, while a lot could have been achieved fairly easily.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-18T12:55:58.694Z","2020-07-18T10:45:40.936Z","2028-01-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"One or more participants in the Twitter hack is revealed to have been an employee of the Russian government",5,,"Deepak","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-18T17:27:30.059Z","2020-07-18T10:45:40.936Z","2028-01-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"One or more participants in the Twitter hack is revealed to have been an employee of the Russian government",9,,"JoshuaZ","Tapetum-Lucidum","Per ayegill. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-18T15:37:12.106Z","2020-07-18T10:45:40.936Z","2028-01-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"One or more participants in the Twitter hack is revealed to have been an employee of the Russian government",15,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-18T10:45:40.938Z","2020-07-18T10:45:40.936Z","2028-01-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Anthony Fauci will become TIME magazine's person of the year 2020",40,,"unexpectedEOF","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-09T06:20:17.206Z","2020-07-25T00:34:40.516Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Anthony Fauci will become TIME magazine's person of the year 2020",15,,"Adam Zerner","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-28T18:06:08.918Z","2020-07-25T00:34:40.516Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Anthony Fauci will become TIME magazine's person of the year 2020",25,,"JohnGreer","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-25T17:44:39.466Z","2020-07-25T00:34:40.516Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Anthony Fauci will become TIME magazine's person of the year 2020",24,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-25T16:49:08.366Z","2020-07-25T00:34:40.516Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Anthony Fauci will become TIME magazine's person of the year 2020",5,,"qznc","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-01T20:05:42.798Z","2020-07-25T00:34:40.516Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Anthony Fauci will become TIME magazine's person of the year 2020",20,,"Deepak","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-25T14:21:48.460Z","2020-07-25T00:34:40.516Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Anthony Fauci will become TIME magazine's person of the year 2020",30,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-25T00:34:40.520Z","2020-07-25T00:34:40.516Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"World War III",20,,"blackjackcf","jasonau12345","I think it's much more likely for us to have another cold war than WWIII.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-12T07:56:48.054Z","2020-07-30T01:59:56.859Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"World War III",20,,"wizzwizz4","jasonau12345","Assuming there's anyone still around afterwards, they might not call it WWIII; we're nearly a century after the World Wars, and any new global war will be rather remote from those. I think it'd be called the Hot War or something.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-09T19:39:48.589Z","2020-07-30T01:59:56.859Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"World War III",41,,"Baeboo","jasonau12345",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-30T21:34:19.836Z","2020-07-30T01:59:56.859Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"World War III",100,,"jasonau12345","jasonau12345",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-30T01:59:56.864Z","2020-07-30T01:59:56.859Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"World War III",20,,"Stephen","jasonau12345","I think it is more likely that nations 'turn inwards' as resources become constrained. Might result in global (and persistent) war between nations that cannot secure their own resources from aggression.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-11T18:36:31.403Z","2020-07-30T01:59:56.859Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"World War III",45,,"PlacidPlatypus","jasonau12345",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-31T16:55:02.345Z","2020-07-30T01:59:56.859Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"World War III",54,,"JoshuaZ","jasonau12345","I'm interpreting this as World War III by the date in question. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-30T17:13:46.203Z","2020-07-30T01:59:56.859Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea will be invaded in 2022 under citations of human rights and threats of nuclear war",2,,"Baeboo","limbo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-06T05:20:05.844Z","2020-09-02T08:58:48.139Z","2022-08-13T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea will be invaded in 2022 under citations of human rights and threats of nuclear war",1,,"JoshuaZ","limbo","Updating based on clarification that it needs to be exactly in 2022. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-05T10:52:26.229Z","2020-09-02T08:58:48.139Z","2022-08-13T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea will be invaded in 2022 under citations of human rights and threats of nuclear war",3,,"Baeboo","limbo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-15T17:18:46.373Z","2020-09-02T08:58:48.139Z","2022-08-13T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea will be invaded in 2022 under citations of human rights and threats of nuclear war",1,,"chemotaxis101","limbo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T20:20:47.089Z","2020-09-02T08:58:48.139Z","2022-08-13T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea will be invaded in 2022 under citations of human rights and threats of nuclear war",0,,"Bruno Parga","limbo","China would veto any UNSC resolution and nuke the hell out of whomever invaded without one.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T12:48:35.176Z","2020-09-02T08:58:48.139Z","2022-08-13T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea will be invaded in 2022 under citations of human rights and threats of nuclear war",1,,"PlacidPlatypus","limbo","Why 2022 specifically?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-02T19:36:56.014Z","2020-09-02T08:58:48.139Z","2022-08-13T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea will be invaded in 2022 under citations of human rights and threats of nuclear war",1,,"wizzwizz4","limbo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-02T14:27:09.136Z","2020-09-02T08:58:48.139Z","2022-08-13T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea will be invaded in 2022 under citations of human rights and threats of nuclear war",2,,"JoshuaZ","limbo","Conjunction fallacy. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-02T11:58:36.171Z","2020-09-02T08:58:48.139Z","2022-08-13T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea will be invaded in 2022 under citations of human rights and threats of nuclear war",16,,"limbo","limbo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-02T08:58:48.143Z","2020-09-02T08:58:48.139Z","2022-08-13T12:00:00.000Z"
"Republican remains Senate majority after 2020 election",90,,"PlacidPlatypus","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-14T03:20:31.830Z","2020-09-24T03:33:42.452Z","2020-11-10T17:00:00.000Z"
"Republican remains Senate majority after 2020 election",75,,"Baeboo","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-14T02:50:16.136Z","2020-09-24T03:33:42.452Z","2020-11-10T17:00:00.000Z"
"Republican remains Senate majority after 2020 election",42,,"JoshuaZ","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-28T02:04:10.233Z","2020-09-24T03:33:42.452Z","2020-11-10T17:00:00.000Z"
"Republican remains Senate majority after 2020 election",45,,"Baeboo","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-26T21:56:58.372Z","2020-09-24T03:33:42.452Z","2020-11-10T17:00:00.000Z"
"Republican remains Senate majority after 2020 election",35,,"seanbas","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-26T10:20:16.919Z","2020-09-24T03:33:42.452Z","2020-11-10T17:00:00.000Z"
"Republican remains Senate majority after 2020 election",60,,"batemancapital","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-24T03:33:42.457Z","2020-09-24T03:33:42.452Z","2020-11-10T17:00:00.000Z"
"Republican remains Senate majority after 2020 election",49,,"two2thehead","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-27T22:24:24.849Z","2020-09-24T03:33:42.452Z","2020-11-10T17:00:00.000Z"
"Republican remains Senate majority after 2020 election",45,,"chemotaxis101","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-26T18:23:53.811Z","2020-09-24T03:33:42.452Z","2020-11-10T17:00:00.000Z"
"Republican remains Senate majority after 2020 election",30,,"PlacidPlatypus","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-21T20:01:01.009Z","2020-09-24T03:33:42.452Z","2020-11-10T17:00:00.000Z"
"Republican remains Senate majority after 2020 election",51,,"two2thehead","batemancapital","They could actually lose the senate. Going to be close though",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-05T07:34:52.318Z","2020-09-24T03:33:42.452Z","2020-11-10T17:00:00.000Z"
"Republican remains Senate majority after 2020 election",55,,"JoshuaZ","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-02T19:04:16.530Z","2020-09-24T03:33:42.452Z","2020-11-10T17:00:00.000Z"
"Republican remains Senate majority after 2020 election",40,,"PlacidPlatypus","batemancapital","Per the 538 forecast.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-29T18:05:04.959Z","2020-09-24T03:33:42.452Z","2020-11-10T17:00:00.000Z"
"China will successfully incorporate Taiwan by 2050",30,,"Baeboo","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-03T04:11:18.711Z","2020-10-22T15:24:37.876Z","2051-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will successfully incorporate Taiwan by 2050",35,,"Baeboo","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-23T19:32:17.607Z","2020-10-22T15:24:37.876Z","2051-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will successfully incorporate Taiwan by 2050",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-22T15:24:37.881Z","2020-10-22T15:24:37.876Z","2051-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will successfully incorporate Taiwan by 2050",5,,"peter_hurford","InquilineKea","what is the definition of ""successfully incorporate""?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T18:01:56.368Z","2020-10-22T15:24:37.876Z","2051-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will successfully incorporate Taiwan by 2050",35,,"chemotaxis101","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-26T18:16:36.490Z","2020-10-22T15:24:37.876Z","2051-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will successfully incorporate Taiwan by 2050",55,,"avi","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-25T01:02:59.295Z","2020-10-22T15:24:37.876Z","2051-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will successfully incorporate Taiwan by 2050",10,,"Deepak","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-22T18:42:31.604Z","2020-10-22T15:24:37.876Z","2051-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will successfully incorporate Taiwan by 2050",25,,"PlacidPlatypus","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-22T16:06:09.224Z","2020-10-22T15:24:37.876Z","2051-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kamala Harris to be US President by the end of 2021. ",7,,"finback","JoshuaZ","actuarial table for a 77 year old: 4% chance of dying over one year. https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html Impeachment unlikely, and he'll have good healthcare, but bumping up for other possibilities like debilitating medical event.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T20:10:31.442Z","2020-11-08T15:12:39.391Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kamala Harris to be US President by the end of 2021. ",10,,"platypus42","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T19:42:46.019Z","2020-11-08T15:12:39.391Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kamala Harris to be US President by the end of 2021. ",9,,"Medea","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T14:38:56.463Z","2020-11-08T15:12:39.391Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kamala Harris to be US President by the end of 2021. ",6,,"PlacidPlatypus","JoshuaZ","@JoshuaZ current end date is the beginning of 2021, not the end.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T20:31:07.731Z","2020-11-08T15:12:39.391Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kamala Harris to be US President by the end of 2021. ",2,,"chemotaxis101","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T11:04:40.074Z","2020-11-08T15:12:39.391Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kamala Harris to be US President by the end of 2021. ",18,,"gav","JoshuaZ","VP-->P happened 9/45  times previously, = 0.2 ignoring all else. 
Main reasons are impeachment or death. 
Biden seems much less likely to be impeached. However he's 20 years older than the average US president, plus there's a pandemic on, so...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T02:30:20.180Z","2020-11-08T15:12:39.391Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kamala Harris to be US President by the end of 2021. ",6,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T15:12:39.397Z","2020-11-08T15:12:39.391Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will the half-full dose regimen for the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine prove to be more effective than the full-full dose regimen?",30,,"Bucky O","Bucky O","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T22:04:03.055Z","2020-11-26T22:04:03.049Z","2021-05-25T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will the half-full dose regimen for the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine prove to be more effective than the full-full dose regimen?",35,,"habryka","Bucky O",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T22:19:31.251Z","2020-11-26T22:04:03.049Z","2021-05-25T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will the half-full dose regimen for the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine prove to be more effective than the full-full dose regimen?",25,,"Zvi","Bucky O",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-27T00:56:33.049Z","2020-11-26T22:04:03.049Z","2021-05-25T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will the half-full dose regimen for the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine prove to be more effective than the full-full dose regimen?",39,,"Owain_Evans","Bucky O",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-27T11:55:20.370Z","2020-11-26T22:04:03.049Z","2021-05-25T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will the half-full dose regimen for the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine prove to be more effective than the full-full dose regimen?",20,,"Eli Lifland","Bucky O",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T00:35:19.987Z","2020-11-26T22:04:03.049Z","2021-05-25T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will the half-full dose regimen for the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine prove to be more effective than the full-full dose regimen?",23,,"Eli Lifland","Bucky O",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T00:36:52.054Z","2020-11-26T22:04:03.049Z","2021-05-25T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will the half-full dose regimen for the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine prove to be more effective than the full-full dose regimen?",33,,"__nobody","Bucky O",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-30T01:48:17.992Z","2020-11-26T22:04:03.049Z","2021-05-25T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will the half-full dose regimen for the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine prove to be more effective than the full-full dose regimen?",41,,"Cory","Bucky O",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-04T05:48:41.964Z","2020-11-26T22:04:03.049Z","2021-05-25T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will the half-full dose regimen for the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine prove to be more effective than the full-full dose regimen?",40,,"Cory","Bucky O",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-04T05:48:43.703Z","2020-11-26T22:04:03.049Z","2021-05-25T23:00:00.000Z"
"At least 3 more people in the US will get the bubonic plague by year-end 2016. ",51,,"themusicgod1","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-03T17:06:00.000Z","2015-11-01T02:23:55.000Z","2017-01-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"At least 3 more people in the US will get the bubonic plague by year-end 2016. ",71,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-01T02:27:30.000Z","2015-11-01T02:23:55.000Z","2017-01-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"At least 3 more people in the US will get the bubonic plague by year-end 2016. ",72,,"JoshuaZ","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-01T12:50:34.000Z","2015-11-01T02:23:55.000Z","2017-01-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"At least 3 more people in the US will get the bubonic plague by year-end 2016. ",83,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-01T02:23:55.000Z","2015-11-01T02:23:55.000Z","2017-01-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"At least 3 more people in the US will get the bubonic plague by year-end 2016. ",75,,"Medea","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-01T13:04:06.000Z","2015-11-01T02:23:55.000Z","2017-01-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"At least 3 more people in the US will get the bubonic plague by year-end 2016. ",85,,"danielfilan","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-02T04:40:21.000Z","2015-11-01T02:23:55.000Z","2017-01-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"At least 3 more people in the US will get the bubonic plague by year-end 2016. ",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Tapetum-Lucidum","According to the CDC the median is 7.
http://www.cdc.gov/plague/maps/",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-02T10:53:13.000Z","2015-11-01T02:23:55.000Z","2017-01-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"Mouse, rat, rabbit, or other small mammal successfully revived from cryopreservation before 2050",45,,"Medea","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-09T12:09:12.000Z","2015-09-17T19:29:28.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Mouse, rat, rabbit, or other small mammal successfully revived from cryopreservation before 2050",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-24T04:10:46.000Z","2015-09-17T19:29:28.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Mouse, rat, rabbit, or other small mammal successfully revived from cryopreservation before 2050",52,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T19:08:35.908Z","2015-09-17T19:29:28.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Mouse, rat, rabbit, or other small mammal successfully revived from cryopreservation before 2050",35,,"wizzwizz4","btrettel","Probably could happen, but I gather there's not much funding in it. (60% if funding goes up soon.)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-13T16:26:51.588Z","2015-09-17T19:29:28.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Mouse, rat, rabbit, or other small mammal successfully revived from cryopreservation before 2050",18,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-23T04:36:53.000Z","2015-09-17T19:29:28.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Mouse, rat, rabbit, or other small mammal successfully revived from cryopreservation before 2050",55,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-17T20:28:39.000Z","2015-09-17T19:29:28.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Mouse, rat, rabbit, or other small mammal successfully revived from cryopreservation before 2050",2,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-17T19:29:28.000Z","2015-09-17T19:29:28.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear war in 25 years.",16,,"JoshuaZ","argothiel","Updating per Updating per http://www.vox.com/2015/6/29/8845913/russia-war",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-02T14:22:25.000Z","2015-03-04T00:42:50.000Z","2040-03-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear war in 25 years.",20,,"David","argothiel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-03T08:47:15.000Z","2015-03-04T00:42:50.000Z","2040-03-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear war in 25 years.",7,,"argothiel","argothiel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-25T17:02:27.000Z","2015-03-04T00:42:50.000Z","2040-03-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear war in 25 years.",12,,"JoshuaZ","argothiel","I appear to generally overestimate probability of military conflicts. Updating accordingly. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-25T17:21:57.000Z","2015-03-04T00:42:50.000Z","2040-03-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear war in 25 years.",5,,"Raahul_Kumar","argothiel","Unlikely. Major nuclear nations are unwilling to nuke each other.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-08T01:28:00.000Z","2015-03-04T00:42:50.000Z","2040-03-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear war in 25 years.",10,,"argothiel","argothiel","Updating due to Russian behavior lately.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-27T14:00:24.000Z","2015-03-04T00:42:50.000Z","2040-03-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear war in 25 years.",13,,"JoshuaZ","argothiel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-27T14:17:27.000Z","2015-03-04T00:42:50.000Z","2040-03-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear war in 25 years.",15,,"themusicgod1","argothiel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T23:01:33.000Z","2015-03-04T00:42:50.000Z","2040-03-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear war in 25 years.",1,,"argothiel","argothiel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-04T00:42:50.000Z","2015-03-04T00:42:50.000Z","2040-03-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear war in 25 years.",5,,"argothiel","argothiel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-05T00:42:10.000Z","2015-03-04T00:42:50.000Z","2040-03-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear war in 25 years.",15,,"JoshuaZ","argothiel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-05T01:27:11.000Z","2015-03-04T00:42:50.000Z","2040-03-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear war in 25 years.",1,,"Chri","argothiel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-05T15:58:38.000Z","2015-03-04T00:42:50.000Z","2040-03-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2033.",75,,"tylercurtis","qap",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-14T15:39:07.000Z","2013-10-13T21:45:43.000Z","2034-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2033.",80,,"Ben Doherty","qap",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-21T02:10:31.000Z","2013-10-13T21:45:43.000Z","2034-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2033.",90,,"procran","qap",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-14T02:02:20.000Z","2013-10-13T21:45:43.000Z","2034-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2033.",90,,"mfb","qap",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-24T23:37:46.000Z","2013-10-13T21:45:43.000Z","2034-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2033.",70,,"from3004","qap","Conditions on Taxis still existing in 2033",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-16T20:05:24.000Z","2013-10-13T21:45:43.000Z","2034-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2033.",90,,"qap","qap",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-13T21:45:43.000Z","2013-10-13T21:45:43.000Z","2034-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Within ten years, a planet will be discovered in at least one of the (liquid water) habitable zones in the Alpha Centauri system. ",45,,"RandomThinker","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-17T20:26:47.000Z","2012-10-17T13:31:22.000Z","2022-10-18T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within ten years, a planet will be discovered in at least one of the (liquid water) habitable zones in the Alpha Centauri system. ",50,,"gwern","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-21T04:16:16.000Z","2012-10-17T13:31:22.000Z","2022-10-18T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within ten years, a planet will be discovered in at least one of the (liquid water) habitable zones in the Alpha Centauri system. ",46,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:50:32.000Z","2012-10-17T13:31:22.000Z","2022-10-18T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within ten years, a planet will be discovered in at least one of the (liquid water) habitable zones in the Alpha Centauri system. ",60,,"pranomostro","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:26:13.082Z","2012-10-17T13:31:22.000Z","2022-10-18T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within ten years, a planet will be discovered in at least one of the (liquid water) habitable zones in the Alpha Centauri system. ",75,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-17T13:31:22.000Z","2012-10-17T13:31:22.000Z","2022-10-18T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within ten years, a planet will be discovered in at least one of the (liquid water) habitable zones in the Alpha Centauri system. ",61,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-17T13:48:30.000Z","2012-10-17T13:31:22.000Z","2022-10-18T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computers will die out and Artificial Intelligence will take over by 2030 - http://www.smh.com.au/small-business/blogs/work-in-progress/internet-via-contact-lenses-as-computers-die-out-20110527-1f6t0.html",30,,"JoshuaZ","Jessica Hartany",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-29T20:14:18.000Z","2011-05-29T13:04:46.000Z","2030-12-15T14:00:00.000Z"
"Computers will die out and Artificial Intelligence will take over by 2030 - http://www.smh.com.au/small-business/blogs/work-in-progress/internet-via-contact-lenses-as-computers-die-out-20110527-1f6t0.html",5,,"Baeboo","Jessica Hartany",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T02:00:16.840Z","2011-05-29T13:04:46.000Z","2030-12-15T14:00:00.000Z"
"Computers will die out and Artificial Intelligence will take over by 2030 - http://www.smh.com.au/small-business/blogs/work-in-progress/internet-via-contact-lenses-as-computers-die-out-20110527-1f6t0.html",15,,"JoshuaZ","Jessica Hartany",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-06-29T19:12:20.000Z","2011-05-29T13:04:46.000Z","2030-12-15T14:00:00.000Z"
"Computers will die out and Artificial Intelligence will take over by 2030 - http://www.smh.com.au/small-business/blogs/work-in-progress/internet-via-contact-lenses-as-computers-die-out-20110527-1f6t0.html",10,,"gwern","Jessica Hartany",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-06-01T16:47:41.000Z","2011-05-29T13:04:46.000Z","2030-12-15T14:00:00.000Z"
"Computers will die out and Artificial Intelligence will take over by 2030 - http://www.smh.com.au/small-business/blogs/work-in-progress/internet-via-contact-lenses-as-computers-die-out-20110527-1f6t0.html",55,,"Jessica Hartany","Jessica Hartany",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-29T13:04:46.000Z","2011-05-29T13:04:46.000Z","2030-12-15T14:00:00.000Z"
"Computers will die out and Artificial Intelligence will take over by 2030 - http://www.smh.com.au/small-business/blogs/work-in-progress/internet-via-contact-lenses-as-computers-die-out-20110527-1f6t0.html",5,,"pranomostro","Jessica Hartany",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:15:42.814Z","2011-05-29T13:04:46.000Z","2030-12-15T14:00:00.000Z"
"Computers will die out and Artificial Intelligence will take over by 2030 - http://www.smh.com.au/small-business/blogs/work-in-progress/internet-via-contact-lenses-as-computers-die-out-20110527-1f6t0.html",1,,"JoshuaZ","Jessica Hartany",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-08T22:13:28.000Z","2011-05-29T13:04:46.000Z","2030-12-15T14:00:00.000Z"
"Computers will die out and Artificial Intelligence will take over by 2030 - http://www.smh.com.au/small-business/blogs/work-in-progress/internet-via-contact-lenses-as-computers-die-out-20110527-1f6t0.html",47,,"themusicgod1","Jessica Hartany",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-08T20:49:47.000Z","2011-05-29T13:04:46.000Z","2030-12-15T14:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2050 the tallest free or non-free standing structure in the world will reach over 10 kilometers in height.”",1,,"Emanuel Rylke","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-29T15:28:28.000Z","2010-08-02T07:02:12.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2050 the tallest free or non-free standing structure in the world will reach over 10 kilometers in height.”",5,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:32:12.000Z","2010-08-02T07:02:12.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2050 the tallest free or non-free standing structure in the world will reach over 10 kilometers in height.”",2,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T13:36:53.881Z","2010-08-02T07:02:12.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2050 the tallest free or non-free standing structure in the world will reach over 10 kilometers in height.”",1,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-02T07:02:12.000Z","2010-08-02T07:02:12.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2050 the tallest free or non-free standing structure in the world will reach over 10 kilometers in height.”",5,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-24T18:00:34.000Z","2010-08-02T07:02:12.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2050 the tallest free or non-free standing structure in the world will reach over 10 kilometers in height.”",0,,"lukas","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-24T14:35:15.000Z","2010-08-02T07:02:12.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2050 the tallest free or non-free standing structure in the world will reach over 10 kilometers in height.”",0,,"lukas","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-24T14:35:18.000Z","2010-08-02T07:02:12.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2050 the tallest free or non-free standing structure in the world will reach over 10 kilometers in height.”",5,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T13:36:58.634Z","2010-08-02T07:02:12.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Politics, Belarus  - Lukashenko is not president anymore by end of November 2020",2,,"jbeshir","NickN",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-15T18:35:53.832Z","2020-08-17T03:57:29.818Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Politics, Belarus  - Lukashenko is not president anymore by end of November 2020",2,,"JoshuaZ","NickN",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-16T00:16:13.809Z","2020-08-17T03:57:29.818Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Politics, Belarus  - Lukashenko is not president anymore by end of November 2020",1,,"Baeboo","NickN",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-19T20:45:05.273Z","2020-08-17T03:57:29.818Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Politics, Belarus  - Lukashenko is not president anymore by end of November 2020",5,,"two2thehead","NickN",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-15T19:25:53.158Z","2020-08-17T03:57:29.818Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Politics, Belarus  - Lukashenko is not president anymore by end of November 2020",3,,"Baeboo","NickN",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-15T21:49:28.119Z","2020-08-17T03:57:29.818Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Politics, Belarus  - Lukashenko is not president anymore by end of November 2020",2,,"Baeboo","NickN",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-15T21:49:33.636Z","2020-08-17T03:57:29.818Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Politics, Belarus  - Lukashenko is not president anymore by end of November 2020",50,,"NickN","NickN",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-17T03:57:29.823Z","2020-08-17T03:57:29.818Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Politics, Belarus  - Lukashenko is not president anymore by end of November 2020",8,,"Bruno Parga","NickN","There was a point when Assad seemed sure to fall. Lukashenko does not face armed opposition (yet) and his country is in a ""Union State"" with Russia.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T12:55:11.022Z","2020-08-17T03:57:29.818Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, Stellar nucleosynthesis will no longer be considered as the main source of heat and light of stars by a majority of scientists.”",1,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T16:53:36.475Z","2010-08-02T06:38:49.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, Stellar nucleosynthesis will no longer be considered as the main source of heat and light of stars by a majority of scientists.”",0,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-02T06:38:49.000Z","2010-08-02T06:38:49.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, Stellar nucleosynthesis will no longer be considered as the main source of heat and light of stars by a majority of scientists.”",0,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-24T17:51:19.000Z","2010-08-02T06:38:49.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, Stellar nucleosynthesis will no longer be considered as the main source of heat and light of stars by a majority of scientists.”",0,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-12T14:07:18.000Z","2010-08-02T06:38:49.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, Stellar nucleosynthesis will no longer be considered as the main source of heat and light of stars by a majority of scientists.”",1,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T14:55:37.511Z","2010-08-02T06:38:49.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, Stellar nucleosynthesis will no longer be considered as the main source of heat and light of stars by a majority of scientists.”",3,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:46:36.000Z","2010-08-02T06:38:49.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, Stellar nucleosynthesis will no longer be considered as the main source of heat and light of stars by a majority of scientists.”",1,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T01:52:44.000Z","2010-08-02T06:38:49.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, Stellar nucleosynthesis will no longer be considered as the main source of heat and light of stars by a majority of scientists.”",1,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T14:04:41.849Z","2010-08-02T06:38:49.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Samsung to be more valuable in 2025 than 2010",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-16T08:42:37.000Z","2015-07-16T08:42:37.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Samsung to be more valuable in 2025 than 2010",80,,"Chri","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-16T09:53:26.000Z","2015-07-16T08:42:37.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Samsung to be more valuable in 2025 than 2010",65,,"davatk","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-26T16:49:56.000Z","2015-07-16T08:42:37.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Samsung to be more valuable in 2025 than 2010",62,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-27T14:18:05.000Z","2015-07-16T08:42:37.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Samsung to be more valuable in 2025 than 2010",60,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-27T07:48:45.000Z","2015-07-16T08:42:37.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Samsung to be more valuable in 2025 than 2010",58,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-01T05:37:23.000Z","2015-07-16T08:42:37.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Samsung to be more valuable in 2025 than 2010",70,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-27T07:49:35.000Z","2015-07-16T08:42:37.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Samsung to be more valuable in 2025 than 2010",80,,"David","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-19T13:29:58.000Z","2015-07-16T08:42:37.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will we be able to make accounts on IDE by 9pm PST today?",90,"YES","Andreas S","Amanda N","","","IDE,Ought","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T22:53:27.245Z","2020-11-17T17:26:23.282Z","2020-11-18T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we be able to make accounts on IDE by 9pm PST today?",55,"YES","Eli Lifland","Amanda N","","","IDE,Ought","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T17:27:24.260Z","2020-11-17T17:26:23.282Z","2020-11-18T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we be able to make accounts on IDE by 9pm PST today?",55,"YES","Eli Lifland","Amanda N","","","IDE,Ought","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T17:29:20.496Z","2020-11-17T17:26:23.282Z","2020-11-18T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we be able to make accounts on IDE by 9pm PST today?",80,"YES","Amanda N","Amanda N","- Andreas says he has space today
- This is the main thing for the afternoon
- Pretty far through already, but not sure
- Andreas says it'll take a couple of hours
- He has allotted a couple of hours

AN edits:
- 9pm seems optimistic though","","IDE,Ought","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T17:29:39.799Z","2020-11-17T17:26:23.282Z","2020-11-18T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we be able to make accounts on IDE by 9pm PST today?",75,"YES","Andreas S","Amanda N","","","IDE,Ought","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T17:29:48.278Z","2020-11-17T17:26:23.282Z","2020-11-18T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we be able to make accounts on IDE by 9pm PST today?",50,"YES","Eli Lifland","Amanda N","","","IDE,Ought","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T17:28:44.054Z","2020-11-17T17:26:23.282Z","2020-11-18T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we be able to make accounts on IDE by 9pm PST today?",75,"YES","jungwon","Amanda N","- Started at 80% then decided I should be more uncertain because of calibration training
- Pretty sure just making this prediction will make Andreas burn everything in his path to meet this goal
- Sounds like a reasonably simple, predictable task ","","IDE,Ought","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T17:30:14.038Z","2020-11-17T17:26:23.282Z","2020-11-18T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we be able to make accounts on IDE by 9pm PST today?",75,"YES","zak","Amanda N","","","IDE,Ought","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T17:26:59.459Z","2020-11-17T17:26:23.282Z","2020-11-18T07:00:00.000Z"
"Chinese economy will be larger than the US in the future. After that, India is the next best candidate that could surpass US economy in the next 25 years. After that China and India could be competing for number one -- Masoyoshi Son, Softbank",96,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-17T04:30:11.000Z","2016-01-17T02:55:33.000Z","2040-06-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"Chinese economy will be larger than the US in the future. After that, India is the next best candidate that could surpass US economy in the next 25 years. After that China and India could be competing for number one -- Masoyoshi Son, Softbank",99,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-17T02:55:33.000Z","2016-01-17T02:55:33.000Z","2040-06-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"Chinese economy will be larger than the US in the future. After that, India is the next best candidate that could surpass US economy in the next 25 years. After that China and India could be competing for number one -- Masoyoshi Son, Softbank",5,,"two2thehead","Raahul_Kumar","Too many boolean ANDS make this unlikely imo.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-16T02:13:56.000Z","2016-01-17T02:55:33.000Z","2040-06-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"Chinese economy will be larger than the US in the future. After that, India is the next best candidate that could surpass US economy in the next 25 years. After that China and India could be competing for number one -- Masoyoshi Son, Softbank",60,,"danpop","Raahul_Kumar","My prediction: China will surpass US in the next 10 years, but India will only do this by 2080. At that point China's nominal GDP will be more than twice of US's GDP ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-24T12:18:23.000Z","2016-01-17T02:55:33.000Z","2040-06-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"Chinese economy will be larger than the US in the future. After that, India is the next best candidate that could surpass US economy in the next 25 years. After that China and India could be competing for number one -- Masoyoshi Son, Softbank",89,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-20T17:27:24.000Z","2016-01-17T02:55:33.000Z","2040-06-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"Chinese economy will be larger than the US in the future. After that, India is the next best candidate that could surpass US economy in the next 25 years. After that China and India could be competing for number one -- Masoyoshi Son, Softbank",15,,"ren","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-20T17:09:13.000Z","2016-01-17T02:55:33.000Z","2040-06-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, proven that there exist infinitely many primes p and q with  |p-q| < 200. ",80,,"aarongertler","JoshuaZ","When you give Terry Tao ten years to think, many things can happen.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-04T05:16:02.000Z","2015-09-30T18:46:08.000Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, proven that there exist infinitely many primes p and q with  |p-q| < 200. ",30,,"timujin","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-02T13:42:36.000Z","2015-09-30T18:46:08.000Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, proven that there exist infinitely many primes p and q with  |p-q| < 200. ",70,,"tstelzig","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-30T20:24:54.000Z","2015-09-30T18:46:08.000Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, proven that there exist infinitely many primes p and q with  |p-q| < 200. ",55,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-30T18:46:08.000Z","2015-09-30T18:46:08.000Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, proven that there exist infinitely many primes p and q with  |p-q| < 200. ",75,,"Josh Holland","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-02T10:32:49.000Z","2015-09-30T18:46:08.000Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, proven that there exist infinitely many primes p and q with  |p-q| < 200. ",80,,"danielfilan","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-07T11:36:20.000Z","2015-09-30T18:46:08.000Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"'Public smoking is banned across every US state' by 2021",0,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T02:03:50.744Z","2011-05-27T01:17:40.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Public smoking is banned across every US state' by 2021",1,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:17:00.970Z","2011-05-27T01:17:40.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Public smoking is banned across every US state' by 2021",9,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-08T22:13:49.000Z","2011-05-27T01:17:40.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Public smoking is banned across every US state' by 2021",5,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-27T01:17:41.000Z","2011-05-27T01:17:40.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Public smoking is banned across every US state' by 2021",1,,"amadeu","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-07T19:56:51.154Z","2011-05-27T01:17:40.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Public smoking is banned across every US state' by 2021",28,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-08T20:48:34.000Z","2011-05-27T01:17:40.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Public smoking is banned across every US state' by 2021",15,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-28T14:13:27.000Z","2011-05-27T01:17:40.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The TV show ""The Walking Dead"" will have at least 10 completed seasons before 2025.",33,,"Amélie_Roy","Mati Roy","One Tree Hill did last 9 seasons so I guess that this really more popular show has high chances of lasting +/- 10 seasons",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-28T21:02:42.000Z","2015-03-28T18:16:00.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The TV show ""The Walking Dead"" will have at least 10 completed seasons before 2025.",15,,"JoshuaZ","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-29T01:55:30.000Z","2015-03-28T18:16:00.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The TV show ""The Walking Dead"" will have at least 10 completed seasons before 2025.",90,,"pranomostro","Mati Roy","The crew seems to be planning another ~3 seasons, 9 already down. Revising upwards.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:09:38.649Z","2015-03-28T18:16:00.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The TV show ""The Walking Dead"" will have at least 10 completed seasons before 2025.",35,,"RandomThinker","Mati Roy","Very few shows go that long.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-28T18:18:32.000Z","2015-03-28T18:16:00.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The TV show ""The Walking Dead"" will have at least 10 completed seasons before 2025.",25,,"benjaminroy","Mati Roy","a few more seasons and there will be no more characters from the first season! I guess (60%) that Rick will die before the end of the 6th season! I expect 7-8 seasons max",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-28T18:22:30.000Z","2015-03-28T18:16:00.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The TV show ""The Walking Dead"" will have at least 10 completed seasons before 2025.",50,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-28T18:16:00.000Z","2015-03-28T18:16:00.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The TV show ""The Walking Dead"" will have at least 10 completed seasons before 2025.",33,,"Amélie_Roy","Mati Roy","One Tree Hill did last 9 seasons so I guess that this really more popular show has high chances of lasting +/- 10 seasons",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-28T21:02:42.000Z","2015-03-28T18:16:00.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The TV show ""The Walking Dead"" will have at least 10 completed seasons before 2025.",80,,"pranomostro","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:08:40.291Z","2015-03-28T18:16:00.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"An (other) astronomical object with a diameter bigger than Mercury will be discover in the Solar System before 2050.",20,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-04-01T04:47:35.000Z","2014-04-01T04:47:35.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"An (other) astronomical object with a diameter bigger than Mercury will be discover in the Solar System before 2050.",20,,"mfb","Mati Roy","I would say ""gravitationally bound to sun""",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-04-02T22:17:07.000Z","2014-04-01T04:47:35.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"An (other) astronomical object with a diameter bigger than Mercury will be discover in the Solar System before 2050.",55,,"JoshuaZ","Mati Roy","Mercury is not much bigger than Sedna or Pluto.  ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-04-03T00:37:49.000Z","2014-04-01T04:47:35.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"An (other) astronomical object with a diameter bigger than Mercury will be discover in the Solar System before 2050.",25,,"adbge","Mati Roy",".",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-04-03T17:18:16.000Z","2014-04-01T04:47:35.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"An (other) astronomical object with a diameter bigger than Mercury will be discover in the Solar System before 2050.",10,,"Jayson Virissimo","Mati Roy","Is anyone else getting ""Response must not be empty"" when trying to submit a probability?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-04-04T04:44:33.000Z","2014-04-01T04:47:35.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"An (other) astronomical object with a diameter bigger than Mercury will be discover in the Solar System before 2050.",80,,"CaelumCodicem","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-06T03:33:45.623Z","2014-04-01T04:47:35.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity to land on an asteroid before landing on Mars",40,,"espore","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-02T20:58:46.000Z","2015-07-20T19:00:03.000Z","2090-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity to land on an asteroid before landing on Mars",55,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-20T19:00:03.000Z","2015-07-20T19:00:03.000Z","2090-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity to land on an asteroid before landing on Mars",25,,"David","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T11:53:51.000Z","2015-07-20T19:00:03.000Z","2090-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity to land on an asteroid before landing on Mars",35,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-03T19:42:29.000Z","2015-07-20T19:00:03.000Z","2090-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity to land on an asteroid before landing on Mars",30,,"Baeboo","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-13T00:14:50.331Z","2015-07-20T19:00:03.000Z","2090-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity to land on an asteroid before landing on Mars",28,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T20:13:03.348Z","2015-07-20T19:00:03.000Z","2090-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity to land on an asteroid before landing on Mars",15,,"supinf","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-31T00:23:25.000Z","2015-07-20T19:00:03.000Z","2090-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"What probability do you assign to the possibility of a human level AGI to self-modify its way up to massive superhuman intelligence within a matter of hours?",0,,"Pat Hayes","Alexander Kruel",,"In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it. The formalized question was: P(superhuman intelligence within hours | human-level AI running at human-level speed equipped with a 100 GB Internet connection) = ?.","AI,ai-interviews","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"What probability do you assign to the possibility of a human level AGI to self-modify its way up to massive superhuman intelligence within a matter of hours?",5,,"Nils Nilsson","Alexander Kruel","Nilsson's explanation: ""I'll assume that you mean sometime during this century, and that my ""employment test"" is the measure of superhuman intelligence.""","In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it. The formalized question was: P(superhuman intelligence within hours | human-level AI running at human-level speed equipped with a 100 GB Internet connection) = ?.","AI,ai-interviews","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"What probability do you assign to the possibility of a human level AGI to self-modify its way up to massive superhuman intelligence within a matter of hours?",10,,"Larry Wasserman","Alexander Kruel",,"In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it. The formalized question was: P(superhuman intelligence within hours | human-level AI running at human-level speed equipped with a 100 GB Internet connection) = ?.","AI,ai-interviews","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"What probability do you assign to the possibility of a human level AGI to self-modify its way up to massive superhuman intelligence within a matter of hours?",0,,"Michael Littman","Alexander Kruel","Michael's exact response was: ""epsilon (essentially zero)"".","In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it. The formalized question was: P(superhuman intelligence within hours | human-level AI running at human-level speed equipped with a 100 GB Internet connection) = ?.","AI,ai-interviews","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"What probability do you assign to the possibility of a human level AGI to self-modify its way up to massive superhuman intelligence within a matter of hours?",0.0001,,"Tim Finin","Alexander Kruel","Note: Tim did not specify whether he was indicating '0.0001%' or '0.0001, i.e. 0.01%'","In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it. The formalized question was: P(superhuman intelligence within hours | human-level AI running at human-level speed equipped with a 100 GB Internet connection) = ?.","AI,ai-interviews","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"What probability do you assign to the possibility of a human level AGI to self-modify its way up to massive superhuman intelligence within a matter of hours?",1,,"Brandon Rohrer","Alexander Kruel","Brandon's exact prediction was < 1%. ","In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it. The formalized question was: P(superhuman intelligence within hours | human-level AI running at human-level speed equipped with a 100 GB Internet connection) = ?.","AI,ai-interviews","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Solar Energy to reach 25% of total world energy generation by 2030",0,,"silacoid","InquilineKea","Solar energy doesn't have sufficient potential to do that. The only chance of this happening is a total energy crash where total consumption is reduced to a tiny fraction, and this won't happen.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-24T17:53:54.000Z","2015-07-11T06:05:13.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Solar Energy to reach 25% of total world energy generation by 2030",25,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea","Adjusting based on points by sdr and btrettel. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-14T23:05:07.000Z","2015-07-11T06:05:13.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Solar Energy to reach 25% of total world energy generation by 2030",45,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-10T00:33:35.000Z","2015-07-11T06:05:13.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Solar Energy to reach 25% of total world energy generation by 2030",5,,"sdr","InquilineKea","looking at change-delta @ wikipedia, no power source made a 20% penetration-shift within 15 years, not likely",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-14T21:10:35.000Z","2015-07-11T06:05:13.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Solar Energy to reach 25% of total world energy generation by 2030",10,,"btrettel","InquilineKea","You all seem overconfident. The US EIA's projection suggests all renewable sources will only make up about 15% of total energy in 2040. http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=527&t=1",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T19:45:52.000Z","2015-07-11T06:05:13.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Solar Energy to reach 25% of total world energy generation by 2030",55,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T13:50:48.000Z","2015-07-11T06:05:13.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Solar Energy to reach 25% of total world energy generation by 2030",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T06:05:13.000Z","2015-07-11T06:05:13.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A country with >1,000,000 population will write the official version of their laws in a conlang (Esperanto/Lojban etc.)",10,,"ChristianKl","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-29T00:59:22.000Z","2013-10-29T00:59:22.000Z","2053-10-30T07:50:00.000Z"
"A country with >1,000,000 population will write the official version of their laws in a conlang (Esperanto/Lojban etc.)",10,,"Ben Doherty","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-08T21:04:51.000Z","2013-10-29T00:59:22.000Z","2053-10-30T07:50:00.000Z"
"A country with >1,000,000 population will write the official version of their laws in a conlang (Esperanto/Lojban etc.)",5,,"Jayson Virissimo","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-12T06:20:21.000Z","2013-10-29T00:59:22.000Z","2053-10-30T07:50:00.000Z"
"A country with >1,000,000 population will write the official version of their laws in a conlang (Esperanto/Lojban etc.)",1,,"rebellionkid","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-21T20:32:52.000Z","2013-10-29T00:59:22.000Z","2053-10-30T07:50:00.000Z"
"A country with >1,000,000 population will write the official version of their laws in a conlang (Esperanto/Lojban etc.)",1,,"najdorf","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-11T04:10:08.000Z","2013-10-29T00:59:22.000Z","2053-10-30T07:50:00.000Z"
"A country with >1,000,000 population will write the official version of their laws in a conlang (Esperanto/Lojban etc.)",1,,"JoshuaZ","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-23T03:31:50.000Z","2013-10-29T00:59:22.000Z","2053-10-30T07:50:00.000Z"
"Google will acquire Quora by 2020",10,,"elephantower","InquilineKea","Will Quora even be functioning then? It's really going down the drain...
Also, Google already tried and gave up on Google Answers; why would they acquire Quora?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-10T07:49:42.000Z","2015-07-11T05:52:43.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google will acquire Quora by 2020",20,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T05:52:43.000Z","2015-07-11T05:52:43.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google will acquire Quora by 2020",5,,"pranomostro","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:07:01.717Z","2015-07-11T05:52:43.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google will acquire Quora by 2020",41,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-22T04:16:13.000Z","2015-07-11T05:52:43.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google will acquire Quora by 2020",23,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-10T04:30:43.000Z","2015-07-11T05:52:43.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google will acquire Quora by 2020",30,,"RandomThinker","InquilineKea","Better chance than Yelp.  Google really rather bury Yelp.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T18:10:51.000Z","2015-07-11T05:52:43.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030 there will be fewer than 1,600,000 people employed as Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (occupation code 53-3032) in the US as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.",53,,"themusicgod1","pkfalu92",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-06T22:17:32.000Z","2017-01-06T15:07:12.000Z","2030-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030 there will be fewer than 1,600,000 people employed as Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (occupation code 53-3032) in the US as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.",75,,"playablecharacter","pkfalu92",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-06T17:16:50.000Z","2017-01-06T15:07:12.000Z","2030-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030 there will be fewer than 1,600,000 people employed as Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (occupation code 53-3032) in the US as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.",95,,"davidmanheim","pkfalu92","Happens if: 
-Self-driving trucks.
-More widespread deployment of semi-autonomous automatic truck caravanning.
-Robotic delivery (drone, etc.) starts getting widespread, even without self-driving trucks.
All are likely.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-09T18:25:05.000Z","2017-01-06T15:07:12.000Z","2030-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030 there will be fewer than 1,600,000 people employed as Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (occupation code 53-3032) in the US as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.",90,,"two2thehead","pkfalu92",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-06T19:29:24.000Z","2017-01-06T15:07:12.000Z","2030-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030 there will be fewer than 1,600,000 people employed as Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (occupation code 53-3032) in the US as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.",65,,"penten","pkfalu92","now: 1.2% (1,678,280/137,896,660)
if US pop grows 11% by 2030 but % does not change, ~1,860k in 2030. So we need ~14% decrease, or 260k jobs. Truck production looks high enough, some can be converted? Utiilisation prob > than currently. Plausable",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-06T17:13:15.000Z","2017-01-06T15:07:12.000Z","2030-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030 there will be fewer than 1,600,000 people employed as Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (occupation code 53-3032) in the US as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.",90,,"pkfalu92","pkfalu92",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-06T15:07:12.000Z","2017-01-06T15:07:12.000Z","2030-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Mercury will not exist anymore by January 1st 2214.",17,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-06T19:10:47.000Z","2014-12-06T19:10:47.000Z","2214-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Mercury will not exist anymore by January 1st 2214.",5,,"JoshuaZ","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-07T01:29:20.000Z","2014-12-06T19:10:47.000Z","2214-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Mercury will not exist anymore by January 1st 2214.",0,,"reallyyesreally","Mati Roy","So what you're saying is... you construct your worldview through watching pop-science flicks on Youtube with no engagement with the underlying science? +1 Rationality Points",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-07T16:15:34.000Z","2014-12-06T19:10:47.000Z","2214-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Mercury will not exist anymore by January 1st 2214.",1,,"Michael Dickens","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-07T23:12:40.000Z","2014-12-06T19:10:47.000Z","2214-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Mercury will not exist anymore by January 1st 2214.",1,,"Philip_W","Mati Roy","Conditional on this prediction being judged. Otherwise closer to 10%.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-19T14:47:52.000Z","2014-12-06T19:10:47.000Z","2214-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Mercury will not exist anymore by January 1st 2214.",0,,"NathanMcKnight","Mati Roy","The planet, or the element? :P Now, set the date ten thousand years in the future, and maybe...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-15T15:00:47.000Z","2014-12-06T19:10:47.000Z","2214-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Donald Trump will repeal Obamacare in his first term",80,,"davidmanheim","npcuck","Also see: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/180682",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-09T18:27:28.000Z","2017-01-06T07:41:27.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Donald Trump will repeal Obamacare in his first term",68,,"themusicgod1","npcuck",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-06T22:17:43.000Z","2017-01-06T07:41:27.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Donald Trump will repeal Obamacare in his first term",60,,"pkfalu92","npcuck",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-06T15:37:36.000Z","2017-01-06T07:41:27.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Donald Trump will repeal Obamacare in his first term",45,,"npcuck","npcuck",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-06T07:41:27.000Z","2017-01-06T07:41:27.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Donald Trump will repeal Obamacare in his first term",75,,"WilliamBerkeley","npcuck",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-13T02:49:32.000Z","2017-01-06T07:41:27.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Donald Trump will repeal Obamacare in his first term",80,,"playablecharacter","npcuck",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-06T08:09:55.000Z","2017-01-06T07:41:27.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"A true general intelligence AI will be created",90,,"CaelumCodicem","espore",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-06T03:25:50.509Z","2015-08-02T20:49:02.000Z","2080-10-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"A true general intelligence AI will be created",95,,"espore","espore",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-02T20:49:02.000Z","2015-08-02T20:49:02.000Z","2080-10-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"A true general intelligence AI will be created",98,,"HonoreDB","espore",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-04T18:47:03.000Z","2015-08-02T20:49:02.000Z","2080-10-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"A true general intelligence AI will be created",100,,"themusicgod1","espore",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T22:21:27.000Z","2015-08-02T20:49:02.000Z","2080-10-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"A true general intelligence AI will be created",95,,"silacoid","espore","By something resembling our definition. The scope of AI is notoriously slippery, once we manage something it tends to stop being AI...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-05T12:19:07.000Z","2015-08-02T20:49:02.000Z","2080-10-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"A true general intelligence AI will be created",75,,"JoshuaZ","espore",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-05T12:52:25.000Z","2015-08-02T20:49:02.000Z","2080-10-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 50% of living Americans will need to barter for, hunt, or farm their own food for survival sometime between 2016 and 2050, including those years",1,,"davidiach","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-13T19:07:27.000Z","2015-10-12T18:54:46.000Z","2051-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"At least 50% of living Americans will need to barter for, hunt, or farm their own food for survival sometime between 2016 and 2050, including those years",1,,"tbm42","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-13T05:29:44.000Z","2015-10-12T18:54:46.000Z","2051-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"At least 50% of living Americans will need to barter for, hunt, or farm their own food for survival sometime between 2016 and 2050, including those years",4,,"Medea","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-13T11:07:22.000Z","2015-10-12T18:54:46.000Z","2051-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"At least 50% of living Americans will need to barter for, hunt, or farm their own food for survival sometime between 2016 and 2050, including those years",2,,"Josh Holland","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-13T10:06:27.000Z","2015-10-12T18:54:46.000Z","2051-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"At least 50% of living Americans will need to barter for, hunt, or farm their own food for survival sometime between 2016 and 2050, including those years",5,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-12T20:27:16.000Z","2015-10-12T18:54:46.000Z","2051-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"At least 50% of living Americans will need to barter for, hunt, or farm their own food for survival sometime between 2016 and 2050, including those years",2,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-12T18:54:46.000Z","2015-10-12T18:54:46.000Z","2051-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Justin Bieber will go to rehab sometime within the next 10 years",90,,"Tiresias","Mel Eclarinal",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-20T06:06:15.000Z","2011-03-31T10:52:57.000Z","2021-03-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"Justin Bieber will go to rehab sometime within the next 10 years",25,,"gwern","Mel Eclarinal",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-04-09T00:53:34.000Z","2011-03-31T10:52:57.000Z","2021-03-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"Justin Bieber will go to rehab sometime within the next 10 years",90,,"Mel Eclarinal","Mel Eclarinal",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-03-31T10:52:57.000Z","2011-03-31T10:52:57.000Z","2021-03-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"Justin Bieber will go to rehab sometime within the next 10 years",56,,"themusicgod1","Mel Eclarinal",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T02:12:43.000Z","2011-03-31T10:52:57.000Z","2021-03-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"Justin Bieber will go to rehab sometime within the next 10 years",15,,"JoshuaZ","Mel Eclarinal",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-20T13:23:11.000Z","2011-03-31T10:52:57.000Z","2021-03-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"Justin Bieber will go to rehab sometime within the next 10 years",20,,"Jayson Virissimo","Mel Eclarinal","must...not...neglect...base rate",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-20T07:09:27.000Z","2011-03-31T10:52:57.000Z","2021-03-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"The US will have have laws or regulations to outlaw normal people destroying drones by end of 2022 (10 years from now)",80,,"a0c4a123f7","RandomThinker","'inc existing laws - if - recognize - applying to drones. '

http://thetandd.com/animal-rights-group-says-drone-shot-down/article_017a720a-56ce-11e1-afc4-001871e3ce6c.html

'Malicious damage of property.'",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-10T21:25:55.000Z","2012-03-06T00:34:16.000Z","2022-12-31T20:23:00.000Z"
"The US will have have laws or regulations to outlaw normal people destroying drones by end of 2022 (10 years from now)",51,,"Ben Doherty","RandomThinker","It might be only drones with specific duties. In the same way that a police dog is considered an officer a drone may gain that status, and then destroying a drone would be assaulting an office in the course of them discharging their duty.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-07T22:22:02.000Z","2012-03-06T00:34:16.000Z","2022-12-31T20:23:00.000Z"
"The US will have have laws or regulations to outlaw normal people destroying drones by end of 2022 (10 years from now)",3,,"Anubhav","RandomThinker","Revising downward drastically if we're talking about small robots as well. It's far easier for them to be deployed against government than in favour of governments.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-06T09:38:40.000Z","2012-03-06T00:34:16.000Z","2022-12-31T20:23:00.000Z"
"The US will have have laws or regulations to outlaw normal people destroying drones by end of 2022 (10 years from now)",30,,"Anubhav","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-06T02:06:03.000Z","2012-03-06T00:34:16.000Z","2022-12-31T20:23:00.000Z"
"The US will have have laws or regulations to outlaw normal people destroying drones by end of 2022 (10 years from now)",67,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-06T00:34:16.000Z","2012-03-06T00:34:16.000Z","2022-12-31T20:23:00.000Z"
"The US will have have laws or regulations to outlaw normal people destroying drones by end of 2022 (10 years from now)",53,,"themusicgod1","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T00:30:27.000Z","2012-03-06T00:34:16.000Z","2022-12-31T20:23:00.000Z"
"The US will have have laws or regulations to outlaw normal people destroying drones by end of 2022 (10 years from now)",55,,"JoshuaZ","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-06T00:12:22.000Z","2012-03-06T00:34:16.000Z","2022-12-31T20:23:00.000Z"
"Made-for-delivery restaurants like Sprig will account for at least 10% of restaurant purchases by 2025 (https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-future-of-food-delivery-1/answer/Adam-DAngelo)",15,,"Afforess","InquilineKea","This seems like a stretch. 2% I could believe. 5% might be possible. 10% is a LOT of purchases.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-19T18:52:35.000Z","2015-08-01T04:39:17.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Made-for-delivery restaurants like Sprig will account for at least 10% of restaurant purchases by 2025 (https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-future-of-food-delivery-1/answer/Adam-DAngelo)",60,,"unexpectedEOF","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-13T17:30:12.000Z","2015-08-01T04:39:17.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Made-for-delivery restaurants like Sprig will account for at least 10% of restaurant purchases by 2025 (https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-future-of-food-delivery-1/answer/Adam-DAngelo)",20,,"David","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-02T09:37:39.000Z","2015-08-01T04:39:17.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Made-for-delivery restaurants like Sprig will account for at least 10% of restaurant purchases by 2025 (https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-future-of-food-delivery-1/answer/Adam-DAngelo)",60,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-01T04:39:17.000Z","2015-08-01T04:39:17.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Made-for-delivery restaurants like Sprig will account for at least 10% of restaurant purchases by 2025 (https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-future-of-food-delivery-1/answer/Adam-DAngelo)",58,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-14T06:34:32.000Z","2015-08-01T04:39:17.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Made-for-delivery restaurants like Sprig will account for at least 10% of restaurant purchases by 2025 (https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-future-of-food-delivery-1/answer/Adam-DAngelo)",25,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-19T20:02:29.000Z","2015-08-01T04:39:17.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robots able to clean a whole bathroom will be commercially available by 2030",85,,"jasticE","jasticE",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-19T09:48:01.000Z","2015-04-19T09:48:01.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robots able to clean a whole bathroom will be commercially available by 2030",80,,"aoeu","jasticE",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-19T20:49:52.000Z","2015-04-19T09:48:01.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robots able to clean a whole bathroom will be commercially available by 2030",50,,"RoryS","jasticE",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-19T21:14:49.000Z","2015-04-19T09:48:01.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robots able to clean a whole bathroom will be commercially available by 2030",99,,"jesselevine","jasticE","Some public bathrooms, like in Paris, already have something like this. Between every user it is flooded to be cleaned (I believe there's detergent mixed in)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-22T16:55:40.000Z","2015-04-19T09:48:01.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robots able to clean a whole bathroom will be commercially available by 2030",65,,"JoshuaZ","jasticE",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-19T17:35:58.000Z","2015-04-19T09:48:01.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Robots able to clean a whole bathroom will be commercially available by 2030",94,,"themusicgod1","jasticE",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-10T00:53:10.000Z","2015-04-19T09:48:01.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world will be fully directly democratic by 2170! The world will be self-governed by it's people, probably nationless (definitely in culture, society and economics) but not a global state",80,,"deanmullen2014","deanmullen2014","Oh the last war will be somewhere between central & southern Africa over the question of a country being a direct democracy. The last kleptocrat (might make a nice film title for a 2171 indie digitally made production by AI) will be overthrown.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-12-31T00:49:09.000Z","2013-12-31T00:47:13.000Z","2170-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"The world will be fully directly democratic by 2170! The world will be self-governed by it's people, probably nationless (definitely in culture, society and economics) but not a global state",0,,"simplicio","deanmullen2014","Only chance of this happening is if almost the entire world population is annihilated. Even then, doesn't seem likely.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-02T15:32:16.000Z","2013-12-31T00:47:13.000Z","2170-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"The world will be fully directly democratic by 2170! The world will be self-governed by it's people, probably nationless (definitely in culture, society and economics) but not a global state",1,,"ChristianKl","deanmullen2014",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-02T20:02:28.000Z","2013-12-31T00:47:13.000Z","2170-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"The world will be fully directly democratic by 2170! The world will be self-governed by it's people, probably nationless (definitely in culture, society and economics) but not a global state",0,,"bobpage","deanmullen2014",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-02T21:29:37.000Z","2013-12-31T00:47:13.000Z","2170-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"The world will be fully directly democratic by 2170! The world will be self-governed by it's people, probably nationless (definitely in culture, society and economics) but not a global state",65,,"splorridge","deanmullen2014",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-14T12:48:59.000Z","2013-12-31T00:47:13.000Z","2170-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"The world will be fully directly democratic by 2170! The world will be self-governed by it's people, probably nationless (definitely in culture, society and economics) but not a global state",80,,"deanmullen2014","deanmullen2014",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-12-31T00:47:13.000Z","2013-12-31T00:47:13.000Z","2170-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"The world will be fully directly democratic by 2170! The world will be self-governed by it's people, probably nationless (definitely in culture, society and economics) but not a global state",1,,"JoshuaZ","deanmullen2014",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-28T19:38:05.000Z","2013-12-31T00:47:13.000Z","2170-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2100.",60,,"wizzwizz4","btrettel","Oh, wait, ""will be better"" ≠ ""will be good enough""…",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-13T16:56:30.502Z","2015-08-05T23:21:28.000Z","2100-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2100.",50,,"wizzwizz4","btrettel","Future cryonic suspension will be better, but so will other medical tech, so only more critical cases will get suspended; most of the probability here is in suspension being used as an experimental technique in some lengthy procedure, or similar.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-13T16:54:57.383Z","2015-08-05T23:21:28.000Z","2100-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2100.",56,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T20:10:00.261Z","2015-08-05T23:21:28.000Z","2100-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2100.",55,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-06T13:07:29.000Z","2015-08-05T23:21:28.000Z","2100-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2100.",85,,"wizzwizz4","btrettel","Conjunction fallacy. I feel like I'm overestimating a little, now, which should compensate.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-19T12:36:05.507Z","2015-08-05T23:21:28.000Z","2100-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2100.",70,,"amrav","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-13T17:14:43.220Z","2015-08-05T23:21:28.000Z","2100-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2100.",53,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-19T15:53:56.522Z","2015-08-05T23:21:28.000Z","2100-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2100.",80,,"Baeboo","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-13T17:24:32.194Z","2015-08-05T23:21:28.000Z","2100-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2100.",98,,"PseudonymousUser","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-09T04:22:38.000Z","2015-08-05T23:21:28.000Z","2100-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2100.",98,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-05T23:21:28.000Z","2015-08-05T23:21:28.000Z","2100-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Jon Snow is one of the 3 dragon's head.",90,,"Michael Dickens","Osuniev",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-07T22:43:26.000Z","2013-09-05T00:51:28.000Z","2015-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Jon Snow is one of the 3 dragon's head.",35,,"JoshuaZ","Osuniev","Deadline should be updated. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-08T22:21:28.000Z","2013-09-05T00:51:28.000Z","2015-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Jon Snow is one of the 3 dragon's head.",42,,"themusicgod1","Osuniev",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-14T07:35:38.000Z","2013-09-05T00:51:28.000Z","2015-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Jon Snow is one of the 3 dragon's head.",90,,"Osuniev","Osuniev",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-05T00:51:28.000Z","2013-09-05T00:51:28.000Z","2015-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Jon Snow is one of the 3 dragon's head.",0,,"TRManderson","Osuniev",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-15T10:50:40.000Z","2013-09-05T00:51:28.000Z","2015-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Jon Snow is one of the 3 dragon's head.",60,,"Medea","Osuniev",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-08T20:18:42.000Z","2013-09-05T00:51:28.000Z","2015-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Quantum computing will be accessible to the world's public, for sale or rent, by mid-2025.",70,,"luxpir","luxpir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-29T09:40:10.000Z","2015-09-29T09:40:10.000Z","2025-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Quantum computing will be accessible to the world's public, for sale or rent, by mid-2025.",5,,"lllouder","luxpir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-08T19:17:38.000Z","2015-09-29T09:40:10.000Z","2025-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Quantum computing will be accessible to the world's public, for sale or rent, by mid-2025.",99,,"NathanMcKnight","luxpir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-29T16:07:38.000Z","2015-09-29T09:40:10.000Z","2025-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Quantum computing will be accessible to the world's public, for sale or rent, by mid-2025.",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","luxpir","Real quantum computers are at 5-6 Qubits now. Zip. Zich. Nada. Learn some physics.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-30T00:23:59.000Z","2015-09-29T09:40:10.000Z","2025-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Quantum computing will be accessible to the world's public, for sale or rent, by mid-2025.",58,,"themusicgod1","luxpir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-19T03:54:01.000Z","2015-09-29T09:40:10.000Z","2025-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Quantum computing will be accessible to the world's public, for sale or rent, by mid-2025.",35,,"Josh Holland","luxpir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-29T13:22:59.000Z","2015-09-29T09:40:10.000Z","2025-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Teleportation to be developed before 2050",45,,"themusicgod1","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T18:28:00.000Z","2015-09-20T20:00:11.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Teleportation to be developed before 2050",1,,"Josh Holland","btrettel","This probably needs a stricter definition of ""teleportation"". Are we talking particles or people?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-22T16:18:40.000Z","2015-09-20T20:00:11.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Teleportation to be developed before 2050",1,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel","Typo",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-20T22:29:32.000Z","2015-09-20T20:00:11.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Teleportation to be developed before 2050",11,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-20T22:28:28.000Z","2015-09-20T20:00:11.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Teleportation to be developed before 2050",1,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-20T20:00:11.000Z","2015-09-20T20:00:11.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Teleportation to be developed before 2050",4,,"Medea","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-08T20:04:07.000Z","2015-09-20T20:00:11.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Teleportation to be developed before 2050",1,,"CaelumCodicem","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-06T03:29:13.398Z","2015-09-20T20:00:11.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Commercial fusion reactors by end of 2040. ",25,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-22T18:56:35.000Z","2015-04-22T18:56:35.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Commercial fusion reactors by end of 2040. ",9,,"Raahul_Kumar","JoshuaZ","This is possible, just improbable. Breakthroughs are hard to predict, which is what this will require. 

Your odds of 25% are crazy high though.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-31T10:37:38.000Z","2015-04-22T18:56:35.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Commercial fusion reactors by end of 2040. ",50,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T23:51:47.000Z","2015-04-22T18:56:35.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Commercial fusion reactors by end of 2040. ",25,,"Baeboo","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-09T02:20:57.265Z","2015-04-22T18:56:35.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Commercial fusion reactors by end of 2040. ",10,,"amadeu","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-07T21:21:32.281Z","2015-04-22T18:56:35.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Commercial fusion reactors by end of 2040. ",30,,"Chri","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-22T19:26:42.000Z","2015-04-22T18:56:35.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"When elon musk and peter thiel personally land on mars, he unfurls a white pride flag",0,,"pkfalu92","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-06T15:08:35.000Z","2016-11-30T20:11:00.000Z","2076-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"When elon musk and peter thiel personally land on mars, he unfurls a white pride flag",0,,"playablecharacter","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-02T21:22:25.000Z","2016-11-30T20:11:00.000Z","2076-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"When elon musk and peter thiel personally land on mars, he unfurls a white pride flag",0,,"Vipul Naik","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-07T08:13:21.000Z","2016-11-30T20:11:00.000Z","2076-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"When elon musk and peter thiel personally land on mars, he unfurls a white pride flag",1,,"pkfalu92","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-04T19:19:10.000Z","2016-11-30T20:11:00.000Z","2076-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"When elon musk and peter thiel personally land on mars, he unfurls a white pride flag",0,,"Rowan93","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-02T15:33:22.000Z","2016-11-30T20:11:00.000Z","2076-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"When elon musk and peter thiel personally land on mars, he unfurls a white pride flag",1,,"RainbowSpacedancer","themusicgod1","Assuming 'he' refers to Thiel. Estimate drops for Musk, and increases for either.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-02T02:35:04.000Z","2016-11-30T20:11:00.000Z","2076-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"When elon musk and peter thiel personally land on mars, he unfurls a white pride flag",21,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-30T20:11:00.000Z","2016-11-30T20:11:00.000Z","2076-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Disclosure of interaction with intelligent aliens by January 1, 2024",0,,"Avadak","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-02T04:27:20.000Z","2015-05-01T18:26:41.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Disclosure of interaction with intelligent aliens by January 1, 2024",1,,"splorridge","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-13T16:37:17.000Z","2015-05-01T18:26:41.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Disclosure of interaction with intelligent aliens by January 1, 2024",24,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-15T01:57:13.000Z","2015-05-01T18:26:41.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Disclosure of interaction with intelligent aliens by January 1, 2024",1,,"btrettel","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-25T22:59:08.000Z","2015-05-01T18:26:41.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Disclosure of interaction with intelligent aliens by January 1, 2024",1,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-01T18:26:41.000Z","2015-05-01T18:26:41.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Disclosure of interaction with intelligent aliens by January 1, 2024",0,,"jesselevine","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-02T00:23:59.000Z","2015-05-01T18:26:41.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Some p2p cryptocurrency is going to become THE world reserve currency this decade"" - Jacob Cannell",5,,"ArturoGoosnargh","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-29T11:22:59.000Z","2015-07-28T19:02:21.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Some p2p cryptocurrency is going to become THE world reserve currency this decade"" - Jacob Cannell",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T19:02:21.000Z","2015-07-28T19:02:21.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Some p2p cryptocurrency is going to become THE world reserve currency this decade"" - Jacob Cannell",1,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T19:06:23.000Z","2015-07-28T19:02:21.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Some p2p cryptocurrency is going to become THE world reserve currency this decade"" - Jacob Cannell",10,,"Jayson Virissimo","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T21:05:59.000Z","2015-07-28T19:02:21.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Some p2p cryptocurrency is going to become THE world reserve currency this decade"" - Jacob Cannell",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","InquilineKea","The Renminbi is the only viable candidate for THE world reserve currency to replace the dollar.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-08T12:52:43.000Z","2015-07-28T19:02:21.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Some p2p cryptocurrency is going to become THE world reserve currency this decade"" - Jacob Cannell",92,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-14T06:45:09.000Z","2015-07-28T19:02:21.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Light speed will still be the same In 2050.
In detail: assuming Quantum Field Theory still holds, the model of a free photon will still be massless and therefore its speed will be unavoidably fixed to the speed limit for Lorentz Transformations.",98,,"DaFranker","Expipiplusone",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-01T08:12:07.000Z","2016-11-17T23:01:48.000Z","2050-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Light speed will still be the same In 2050.
In detail: assuming Quantum Field Theory still holds, the model of a free photon will still be massless and therefore its speed will be unavoidably fixed to the speed limit for Lorentz Transformations.",98,,"trishume","Expipiplusone",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-18T20:55:31.000Z","2016-11-17T23:01:48.000Z","2050-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Light speed will still be the same In 2050.
In detail: assuming Quantum Field Theory still holds, the model of a free photon will still be massless and therefore its speed will be unavoidably fixed to the speed limit for Lorentz Transformations.",99,,"Expipiplusone","Expipiplusone",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-17T23:01:48.000Z","2016-11-17T23:01:48.000Z","2050-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Light speed will still be the same In 2050.
In detail: assuming Quantum Field Theory still holds, the model of a free photon will still be massless and therefore its speed will be unavoidably fixed to the speed limit for Lorentz Transformations.",0,,"Akainerd92","Expipiplusone","https://www.sciencenews.org/article/speed-light-not-so-constant-after-all. 

",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-30T04:02:52.000Z","2016-11-17T23:01:48.000Z","2050-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Light speed will still be the same In 2050.
In detail: assuming Quantum Field Theory still holds, the model of a free photon will still be massless and therefore its speed will be unavoidably fixed to the speed limit for Lorentz Transformations.",99,,"pkfalu92","Expipiplusone",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-19T18:11:15.000Z","2016-11-17T23:01:48.000Z","2050-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Light speed will still be the same In 2050.
In detail: assuming Quantum Field Theory still holds, the model of a free photon will still be massless and therefore its speed will be unavoidably fixed to the speed limit for Lorentz Transformations.",100,,"themusicgod1","Expipiplusone",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-18T00:42:47.000Z","2016-11-17T23:01:48.000Z","2050-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"As of 2015-08-19, Eliezer Yudkowsky has solved the hard problem of consciousness.",9,,"themusicgod1","Michael Dickens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-22T21:38:32.000Z","2015-08-20T02:36:27.000Z","2045-08-20T02:36:27.000Z"
"As of 2015-08-19, Eliezer Yudkowsky has solved the hard problem of consciousness.",0,,"kallman","Michael Dickens","Is it a solvable problem, to everyone's satisfaction?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-22T22:53:55.000Z","2015-08-20T02:36:27.000Z","2045-08-20T02:36:27.000Z"
"As of 2015-08-19, Eliezer Yudkowsky has solved the hard problem of consciousness.",1,,"Michael Dickens","Michael Dickens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-20T02:36:27.000Z","2015-08-20T02:36:27.000Z","2045-08-20T02:36:27.000Z"
"As of 2015-08-19, Eliezer Yudkowsky has solved the hard problem of consciousness.",0,,"two2thehead","Michael Dickens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-21T03:23:05.000Z","2015-08-20T02:36:27.000Z","2045-08-20T02:36:27.000Z"
"As of 2015-08-19, Eliezer Yudkowsky has solved the hard problem of consciousness.",0,,"Afforess","Michael Dickens","Be afraid of predictions with multiple conditions. Consciousness may or may not be solved by 2045, but it being solved specifically by EY makes this extremely unlikely.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-20T15:49:00.000Z","2015-08-20T02:36:27.000Z","2045-08-20T02:36:27.000Z"
"As of 2015-08-19, Eliezer Yudkowsky has solved the hard problem of consciousness.",0,,"JoshuaZ","Michael Dickens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-20T11:29:13.000Z","2015-08-20T02:36:27.000Z","2045-08-20T02:36:27.000Z"
"By 2021, general consensus is that summer made coronavirus significantly less dangerous",40,,"Bucky","Scott Alexander",,,"covid-19,ssc","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, general consensus is that summer made coronavirus significantly less dangerous",80,,"fzeidler","Scott Alexander","",,"covid-19,ssc","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-04T12:59:30.894Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, general consensus is that summer made coronavirus significantly less dangerous",85,,"Tyle S","Scott Alexander","",,"covid-19,ssc","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T15:56:27.860Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, general consensus is that summer made coronavirus significantly less dangerous",90,,"mattvdm","Scott Alexander","",,"covid-19,ssc","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T10:11:15.517Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, general consensus is that summer made coronavirus significantly less dangerous",70,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""Hold, because it takes so little change to make things ‘significantly’ less dangerous, and there are a lot of ways to get to this ‘consensus’ without it being true.""",,"covid-19,ssc","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, general consensus is that summer made coronavirus significantly less dangerous",70,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"covid-19,ssc","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"UK, EU extend “transition” trade deal by 2021",46,,"AaronTest","Scott Alexander",,,"politics,ssc","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-02T12:30:55.244Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"UK, EU extend “transition” trade deal by 2021",30,,"Bucky","Scott Alexander",,,"politics,ssc","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"UK, EU extend “transition” trade deal by 2021",40,,"fzeidler","Scott Alexander","",,"politics,ssc","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-04T12:59:40.362Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"UK, EU extend “transition” trade deal by 2021",10,,"mattvdm","Scott Alexander","legal deadline for extending the transition passed in June — some talk of 'adjustment period'/'phase out', but unclear how this would resolve (my prediction is reflects chance of a permissive resolution) - see https://www.osborneclarke.com/insights/june-2020-really-no-way-extending-brexit-transition-period-securing-new-implementation-period/",,"politics,ssc","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T10:10:24.227Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"UK, EU extend “transition” trade deal by 2021",80,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""Hold. Neither alternative, failing to extend or reaching a true deal, seem all that likely, so this seems like a reasonable estimate.""",,"politics,ssc","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"UK, EU extend “transition” trade deal by 2021",80,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"politics,ssc","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"'more than half of Baby Boomers will live healthy lives beyond 100' --Ron Klatz",4,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:24:09.937Z","2010-11-14T03:19:42.000Z","2049-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'more than half of Baby Boomers will live healthy lives beyond 100' --Ron Klatz",40,,"themusicgod1","gwern","We've lost a fair number of them already, esp in developing world, the ones left are going to have to make up for that.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T02:47:51.000Z","2010-11-14T03:19:42.000Z","2049-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'more than half of Baby Boomers will live healthy lives beyond 100' --Ron Klatz",1,,"Nic_Smith","gwern","Won't happen, although I'm a bit more optimistic for Gen-X on. I assume we mean Boomers alive now, and not all born? Makes a slight difference.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-26T06:50:03.000Z","2010-11-14T03:19:42.000Z","2049-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'more than half of Baby Boomers will live healthy lives beyond 100' --Ron Klatz",5,,"JoshuaZ","gwern","I suspect we will also see this falsified well before the deadline.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-02T14:48:16.000Z","2010-11-14T03:19:42.000Z","2049-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'more than half of Baby Boomers will live healthy lives beyond 100' --Ron Klatz",10,,"stephenh","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-12-11T06:23:50.000Z","2010-11-14T03:19:42.000Z","2049-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'more than half of Baby Boomers will live healthy lives beyond 100' --Ron Klatz",5,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-14T03:19:42.000Z","2010-11-14T03:19:42.000Z","2049-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"We will be able to robustly search audio files by text by 2025",60,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-16T01:56:37.000Z","2015-08-16T01:56:37.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"We will be able to robustly search audio files by text by 2025",95,,"PurpleDango","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-17T04:32:41.000Z","2015-08-16T01:56:37.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"We will be able to robustly search audio files by text by 2025",81,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-19T18:40:00.000Z","2015-08-16T01:56:37.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"We will be able to robustly search audio files by text by 2025",75,,"btrettel","InquilineKea","Same conditions as silacoid. Also not assuming the files have been pre-transcribed as unexpectedEOF suggests.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-19T18:28:41.000Z","2015-08-16T01:56:37.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"We will be able to robustly search audio files by text by 2025",80,,"silacoid","InquilineKea","Conditional, for relatively clear spoken audio files in a common language",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-16T14:04:01.000Z","2015-08-16T01:56:37.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"We will be able to robustly search audio files by text by 2025",80,,"timujin","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-16T07:43:09.000Z","2015-08-16T01:56:37.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Global mass unemployment due to automation will cause large scale civil unrest that threatens global stability before 2100.",17,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","silacoid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-10T02:34:39.000Z","2015-08-16T14:19:15.000Z","2100-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Global mass unemployment due to automation will cause large scale civil unrest that threatens global stability before 2100.",20,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","silacoid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-25T12:45:14.754Z","2015-08-16T14:19:15.000Z","2100-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Global mass unemployment due to automation will cause large scale civil unrest that threatens global stability before 2100.",4,,"Baeboo","silacoid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-26T03:40:51.649Z","2015-08-16T14:19:15.000Z","2100-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Global mass unemployment due to automation will cause large scale civil unrest that threatens global stability before 2100.",95,,"themusicgod1","silacoid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T23:27:21.000Z","2015-08-16T14:19:15.000Z","2100-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Global mass unemployment due to automation will cause large scale civil unrest that threatens global stability before 2100.",5,,"btrettel","silacoid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-05T19:49:03.000Z","2015-08-16T14:19:15.000Z","2100-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Global mass unemployment due to automation will cause large scale civil unrest that threatens global stability before 2100.",23,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","silacoid","Netflix and virtual reality will be in play long before that could happen.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-20T04:29:04.000Z","2015-08-16T14:19:15.000Z","2100-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Global mass unemployment due to automation will cause large scale civil unrest that threatens global stability before 2100.",40,,"InquilineKea","silacoid","I feel cheap entertainment could reduce the chances of this happening",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-17T09:59:33.000Z","2015-08-16T14:19:15.000Z","2100-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Global mass unemployment due to automation will cause large scale civil unrest that threatens global stability before 2100.",60,,"silacoid","silacoid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-16T14:19:15.000Z","2015-08-16T14:19:15.000Z","2100-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"""Within 50 years it will be the dominant paradigm within particle physics that all leptons and quarks are each composed of three pairs of two opposite types of black hole and that a pair of these black holes, when merged, form the underlying units from wh",1,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:33:06.745Z","2010-11-08T01:11:54.000Z","2060-11-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Within 50 years it will be the dominant paradigm within particle physics that all leptons and quarks are each composed of three pairs of two opposite types of black hole and that a pair of these black holes, when merged, form the underlying units from wh",0,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-12T13:53:08.000Z","2010-11-08T01:11:54.000Z","2060-11-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Within 50 years it will be the dominant paradigm within particle physics that all leptons and quarks are each composed of three pairs of two opposite types of black hole and that a pair of these black holes, when merged, form the underlying units from wh",0,,"JoshuaZ","gwern","I'm not completely sure what this means. If the individual meant that the particles can be thought of as singularities this might make more sense. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-01T14:06:11.000Z","2010-11-08T01:11:54.000Z","2060-11-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Within 50 years it will be the dominant paradigm within particle physics that all leptons and quarks are each composed of three pairs of two opposite types of black hole and that a pair of these black holes, when merged, form the underlying units from wh",4,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T02:36:46.000Z","2010-11-08T01:11:54.000Z","2060-11-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Within 50 years it will be the dominant paradigm within particle physics that all leptons and quarks are each composed of three pairs of two opposite types of black hole and that a pair of these black holes, when merged, form the underlying units from wh",1,,"anonym","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-27T20:29:21.000Z","2010-11-08T01:11:54.000Z","2060-11-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Within 50 years it will be the dominant paradigm within particle physics that all leptons and quarks are each composed of three pairs of two opposite types of black hole and that a pair of these black holes, when merged, form the underlying units from wh",0,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-08T01:11:55.000Z","2010-11-08T01:11:54.000Z","2060-11-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"Rate of violent crime in Pakistan will start dropping around 2020, correlated with lead exposure 20 years earlier",55,,"JoshuaZ","jasticE",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-24T19:26:02.000Z","2015-05-24T12:43:54.000Z","2030-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Rate of violent crime in Pakistan will start dropping around 2020, correlated with lead exposure 20 years earlier",55,,"themusicgod1","jasticE",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-10T00:52:20.000Z","2015-05-24T12:43:54.000Z","2030-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Rate of violent crime in Pakistan will start dropping around 2020, correlated with lead exposure 20 years earlier",10,,"PseudonymousUser","jasticE",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-07T05:11:41.000Z","2015-05-24T12:43:54.000Z","2030-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Rate of violent crime in Pakistan will start dropping around 2020, correlated with lead exposure 20 years earlier",60,,"jasticE","jasticE",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-24T12:43:54.000Z","2015-05-24T12:43:54.000Z","2030-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Rate of violent crime in Pakistan will start dropping around 2020, correlated with lead exposure 20 years earlier",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","jasticE","From Maggi Noodles to PVC pipes, there are 3-4 other sources of lead poisoning which are not being addressed in Pakistan. It will take much more than just unleaded petrol.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-31T09:59:21.000Z","2015-05-24T12:43:54.000Z","2030-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Rate of violent crime in Pakistan will start dropping around 2020, correlated with lead exposure 20 years earlier",45,,"David","jasticE",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-05T09:47:13.000Z","2015-05-24T12:43:54.000Z","2030-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditioned on UK leaving the EU, Scotland will be in progress towards, or have achieved, the status of an independent state (or quasi-independent, e.g. with shared military) by the end of 2020.",70,,"blackRust","blackRust",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-14T21:41:55.000Z","2016-07-14T21:41:55.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditioned on UK leaving the EU, Scotland will be in progress towards, or have achieved, the status of an independent state (or quasi-independent, e.g. with shared military) by the end of 2020.",68,,"splorridge","blackRust",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-15T08:50:43.000Z","2016-07-14T21:41:55.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditioned on UK leaving the EU, Scotland will be in progress towards, or have achieved, the status of an independent state (or quasi-independent, e.g. with shared military) by the end of 2020.",70,,"Chri","blackRust",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-17T12:56:57.000Z","2016-07-14T21:41:55.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditioned on UK leaving the EU, Scotland will be in progress towards, or have achieved, the status of an independent state (or quasi-independent, e.g. with shared military) by the end of 2020.",46,,"themusicgod1","blackRust",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-17T18:43:25.000Z","2016-07-14T21:41:55.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditioned on UK leaving the EU, Scotland will be in progress towards, or have achieved, the status of an independent state (or quasi-independent, e.g. with shared military) by the end of 2020.",60,,"elephantower","blackRust",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-19T07:32:24.000Z","2016-07-14T21:41:55.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditioned on UK leaving the EU, Scotland will be in progress towards, or have achieved, the status of an independent state (or quasi-independent, e.g. with shared military) by the end of 2020.",5,,"blackRust","blackRust",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-29T05:52:49.970Z","2016-07-14T21:41:55.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditioned on UK leaving the EU, Scotland will be in progress towards, or have achieved, the status of an independent state (or quasi-independent, e.g. with shared military) by the end of 2020.",70,,"RoryS","blackRust",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-18T16:08:19.000Z","2016-07-14T21:41:55.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Magic to return on a large scale (like in Shadowrun) by January 1, 2035. ",0,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-12T18:57:54.000Z","2015-08-12T18:57:54.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Magic to return on a large scale (like in Shadowrun) by January 1, 2035. ",0,,"HonoreDB","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-13T15:12:35.000Z","2015-08-12T18:57:54.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Magic to return on a large scale (like in Shadowrun) by January 1, 2035. ",4,,"unexpectedEOF","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-13T17:39:57.000Z","2015-08-12T18:57:54.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Magic to return on a large scale (like in Shadowrun) by January 1, 2035. ",0,,"kallman","JoshuaZ","""Return""? As though it's truly ever existed?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-22T23:00:29.000Z","2015-08-12T18:57:54.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Magic to return on a large scale (like in Shadowrun) by January 1, 2035. ",0,,"sflicht","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-25T18:05:49.000Z","2015-08-12T18:57:54.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Magic to return on a large scale (like in Shadowrun) by January 1, 2035. ",0,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-14T06:20:48.000Z","2015-08-12T18:57:54.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US citizen killed by US government in drone strike on continental US soil before 2023",75,,"PipFoweraker","themusicgod1","I interpret 'US Government' as 'Anyone duly authorised by law'.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-30T00:06:05.000Z","2015-12-13T04:06:31.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US citizen killed by US government in drone strike on continental US soil before 2023",20,,"bobpage","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-04T03:25:31.000Z","2015-12-13T04:06:31.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US citizen killed by US government in drone strike on continental US soil before 2023",60,,"VonFoerster","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-14T21:01:35.000Z","2015-12-13T04:06:31.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US citizen killed by US government in drone strike on continental US soil before 2023",1,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-08T07:02:52.015Z","2015-12-13T04:06:31.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US citizen killed by US government in drone strike on continental US soil before 2023",45,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-03T03:42:27.000Z","2015-12-13T04:06:31.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US citizen killed by US government in drone strike on continental US soil before 2023",61,,"JoshuaZ","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-03T00:34:58.000Z","2015-12-13T04:06:31.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US citizen killed by US government in drone strike on continental US soil before 2023",60,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-13T04:06:31.000Z","2015-12-13T04:06:31.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"/r/gwern will have been banned by Reddit",4,,"Baeboo","quanticle",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-20T20:59:39.249Z","2019-05-18T03:22:21.878Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"/r/gwern will have been banned by Reddit",25,,"quanticle","quanticle",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-18T03:22:21.884Z","2019-05-18T03:22:21.878Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"/r/gwern will have been banned by Reddit",3,,"saturn","quanticle",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-18T03:31:47.439Z","2019-05-18T03:22:21.878Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"/r/gwern will have been banned by Reddit",10,,"enolan","quanticle","Some of it's mildly spicy, but you have to go to some effort to figure out it is. And he's not popular enough for bad faith actors to dig into his stuff.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-18T04:32:57.805Z","2019-05-18T03:22:21.878Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"/r/gwern will have been banned by Reddit",5,,"chemotaxis101","quanticle",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-06-30T18:53:17.228Z","2019-05-18T03:22:21.878Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"/r/gwern will have been banned by Reddit",5,,"Baeboo","quanticle",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-18T19:38:15.995Z","2019-05-18T03:22:21.878Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"/r/gwern will have been banned by Reddit",2,,"pranomostro","quanticle",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-24T15:27:24.417Z","2019-05-18T03:22:21.878Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on Bill O'Reilly's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a *higher than average probability* of having Narcissistic Personality Disorder [NPD].",99,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-01T02:41:13.000Z","2016-07-01T02:41:13.000Z","2066-07-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on Bill O'Reilly's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a *higher than average probability* of having Narcissistic Personality Disorder [NPD].",51,,"JoshuaZ","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-01T15:09:54.000Z","2016-07-01T02:41:13.000Z","2066-07-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on Bill O'Reilly's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a *higher than average probability* of having Narcissistic Personality Disorder [NPD].",17,,"themusicgod1","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-01T17:12:31.000Z","2016-07-01T02:41:13.000Z","2066-07-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on Bill O'Reilly's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a *higher than average probability* of having Narcissistic Personality Disorder [NPD].",50,,"EloiseRosen","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-01T18:03:09.000Z","2016-07-01T02:41:13.000Z","2066-07-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on Bill O'Reilly's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a *higher than average probability* of having Narcissistic Personality Disorder [NPD].",80,,"elephantower","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-02T21:14:55.000Z","2016-07-01T02:41:13.000Z","2066-07-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on Bill O'Reilly's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a *higher than average probability* of having Narcissistic Personality Disorder [NPD].",30,,"Jenson","two2thehead","Are you assuming that they would make any comment at all on his chances of having NPD?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-06T05:50:41.000Z","2016-07-01T02:41:13.000Z","2066-07-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"No new state leaves EU by 2021",90,,"Bucky","Scott Alexander",,,"politics,ssc","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"No new state leaves EU by 2021",95,,"fzeidler","Scott Alexander","",,"politics,ssc","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-04T12:59:51.923Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"No new state leaves EU by 2021",99,,"mattvdm","Scott Alexander","",,"politics,ssc","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T10:10:43.623Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"No new state leaves EU by 2021",90,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""Hold, because while I do see a lot of ways for there to be a crisis, the chances that it will take less than a year to figure out how to actually leave seems pretty low.""",,"politics,ssc","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"No new state leaves EU by 2021",90,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"politics,ssc","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"No new state leaves EU by 2021",99,,"nathanpmyoung","Scott Alexander","",,"politics,ssc","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-05T21:26:56.765Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"There will be superintelligence by 2033. -- Nick Bostrom",20,,"Pablo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-06T06:22:54.000Z","2012-10-06T06:22:54.000Z","2034-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be superintelligence by 2033. -- Nick Bostrom",16,,"Pablo","Pablo","Upon reflection, I'm lowering my estimate slightly.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-06T06:25:04.000Z","2012-10-06T06:22:54.000Z","2034-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be superintelligence by 2033. -- Nick Bostrom",5,,"amitpamin","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-10T00:39:02.000Z","2012-10-06T06:22:54.000Z","2034-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be superintelligence by 2033. -- Nick Bostrom",55,,"themusicgod1","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:42:08.000Z","2012-10-06T06:22:54.000Z","2034-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be superintelligence by 2033. -- Nick Bostrom",10,,"kilobug","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-10T07:59:40.000Z","2012-10-06T06:22:54.000Z","2034-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be superintelligence by 2033. -- Nick Bostrom",10,,"chemotaxis101","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-13T17:29:46.000Z","2012-10-06T06:22:54.000Z","2034-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be superintelligence by 2033. -- Nick Bostrom",85,,"bobpage","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-18T04:22:35.000Z","2012-10-06T06:22:54.000Z","2034-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"GitHub will operate through 2025-07-01",80,,"PseudonymousUser","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-13T04:20:19.000Z","2015-06-11T14:16:42.000Z","2025-07-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"GitHub will operate through 2025-07-01",70,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-11T14:16:43.000Z","2015-06-11T14:16:42.000Z","2025-07-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"GitHub will operate through 2025-07-01",85,,"jasticE","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-18T09:37:45.000Z","2015-06-11T14:16:42.000Z","2025-07-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"GitHub will operate through 2025-07-01",90,,"aarongertler","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-21T01:46:46.000Z","2015-06-11T14:16:42.000Z","2025-07-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"GitHub will operate through 2025-07-01",60,,"David","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-23T05:13:57.000Z","2015-06-11T14:16:42.000Z","2025-07-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"GitHub will operate through 2025-07-01",50,,"themusicgod1","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T23:26:25.000Z","2015-06-11T14:16:42.000Z","2025-07-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"'Africa and the Middle East are linked by a transcontinental bridge' by 2025",3,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-09T01:26:37.515Z","2010-10-29T22:32:59.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Africa and the Middle East are linked by a transcontinental bridge' by 2025",5,,"amadeu","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-07T19:25:11.596Z","2010-10-29T22:32:59.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Africa and the Middle East are linked by a transcontinental bridge' by 2025",3,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T02:32:58.000Z","2010-10-29T22:32:59.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Africa and the Middle East are linked by a transcontinental bridge' by 2025",15,,"anonym","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-27T20:28:08.000Z","2010-10-29T22:32:59.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Africa and the Middle East are linked by a transcontinental bridge' by 2025",5,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:36:56.491Z","2010-10-29T22:32:59.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Africa and the Middle East are linked by a transcontinental bridge' by 2025",20,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-29T22:32:59.000Z","2010-10-29T22:32:59.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Africa and the Middle East are linked by a transcontinental bridge' by 2025",2,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-27T07:35:39.023Z","2010-10-29T22:32:59.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Betelgeuse star will be observed to die within 60 years",10,,"jasticE","jasticE",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-14T13:37:46.000Z","2010-10-14T13:37:44.000Z","2070-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Betelgeuse star will be observed to die within 60 years",0,,"JoshuaZ","jasticE",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-24T18:06:27.000Z","2010-10-14T13:37:44.000Z","2070-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Betelgeuse star will be observed to die within 60 years",2,,"JoshuaZ","jasticE","Thinking about this more, reducing confidence due to the instability of Betelgeuse (especially the  unexplained shrinking.) ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-26T15:50:03.000Z","2010-10-14T13:37:44.000Z","2070-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Betelgeuse star will be observed to die within 60 years",5,,"jasticE","jasticE","adjusting for input",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-09T01:18:32.000Z","2010-10-14T13:37:44.000Z","2070-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Betelgeuse star will be observed to die within 60 years",1,,"JoshuaZ","jasticE",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T02:21:05.000Z","2010-10-14T13:37:44.000Z","2070-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Betelgeuse star will be observed to die within 60 years",5,,"pranomostro","jasticE",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-09T19:56:21.258Z","2010-10-14T13:37:44.000Z","2070-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Betelgeuse star will be observed to die within 60 years",0,,"gwern","jasticE","Red supergiants can last an awful long time.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-14T15:18:25.000Z","2010-10-14T13:37:44.000Z","2070-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Betelgeuse star will be observed to die within 60 years",47,,"themusicgod1","jasticE",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T01:40:26.000Z","2010-10-14T13:37:44.000Z","2070-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Betelgeuse star will be observed to die within 60 years",3,,"Baeboo","jasticE","It is between 612 and 880 light years away, so we might observe that if it died between 1139 and 1458.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-10T01:14:14.304Z","2010-10-14T13:37:44.000Z","2070-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2095 The development of a ""Space Drive"" - a propulsion system reacting against the structure of space-time - makes the rocket obsolete and permits velocities close to that of light. Human explorers set off to nearby star systems.'",4,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-09T13:52:55.255Z","2010-10-26T16:42:15.000Z","2096-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2095 The development of a ""Space Drive"" - a propulsion system reacting against the structure of space-time - makes the rocket obsolete and permits velocities close to that of light. Human explorers set off to nearby star systems.'",0,,"Anubhav","gwern","Too many burdensome details.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-12T13:50:55.000Z","2010-10-26T16:42:15.000Z","2096-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2095 The development of a ""Space Drive"" - a propulsion system reacting against the structure of space-time - makes the rocket obsolete and permits velocities close to that of light. Human explorers set off to nearby star systems.'",5,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-01T14:07:28.000Z","2010-10-26T16:42:15.000Z","2096-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2095 The development of a ""Space Drive"" - a propulsion system reacting against the structure of space-time - makes the rocket obsolete and permits velocities close to that of light. Human explorers set off to nearby star systems.'",100,,"kallman","gwern","Warp drive math shows you need a warp drive to build a warp drive >.>",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-20T06:01:11.000Z","2010-10-26T16:42:15.000Z","2096-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2095 The development of a ""Space Drive"" - a propulsion system reacting against the structure of space-time - makes the rocket obsolete and permits velocities close to that of light. Human explorers set off to nearby star systems.'",0,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-26T16:42:15.000Z","2010-10-26T16:42:15.000Z","2096-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2095 The development of a ""Space Drive"" - a propulsion system reacting against the structure of space-time - makes the rocket obsolete and permits velocities close to that of light. Human explorers set off to nearby star systems.'",1,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:46:13.092Z","2010-10-26T16:42:15.000Z","2096-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2095 The development of a ""Space Drive"" - a propulsion system reacting against the structure of space-time - makes the rocket obsolete and permits velocities close to that of light. Human explorers set off to nearby star systems.'",1,,"anonym","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-27T20:24:30.000Z","2010-10-26T16:42:15.000Z","2096-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2095 The development of a ""Space Drive"" - a propulsion system reacting against the structure of space-time - makes the rocket obsolete and permits velocities close to that of light. Human explorers set off to nearby star systems.'",0,,"kallman","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-20T06:01:30.000Z","2010-10-26T16:42:15.000Z","2096-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"WWIII will include Turkey as a participant",13,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-25T02:05:07.000Z","2016-07-25T02:05:07.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"WWIII will include Turkey as a participant",2,,"PlacidPlatypus","themusicgod1","Would be much higher without the time limit.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-25T20:04:54.000Z","2016-07-25T02:05:07.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"WWIII will include Turkey as a participant",2,,"two2thehead","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-26T03:49:38.000Z","2016-07-25T02:05:07.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"WWIII will include Turkey as a participant",5,,"BigRaims","themusicgod1","assuming that the third world war will start before 2024. Otherwise, 70%",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-16T01:50:59.000Z","2016-07-25T02:05:07.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"WWIII will include Turkey as a participant",8,,"NickN","themusicgod1","Does it have to be called WWIII, abd if so, by whom?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-22T13:56:23.742Z","2016-07-25T02:05:07.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"WWIII will include Turkey as a participant",2,,"Bruno Parga","themusicgod1","This is actually two predictions: that WW3 will start before that date, and that Turkey will be a belligerent. So the prediction fails if either no WW3 breaks out or Turkey is not involved by then.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-25T04:04:08.000Z","2016-07-25T02:05:07.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will win a Nobel Prize in literature in 40 years.",0,,"Pablo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-27T23:27:07.000Z","2012-09-08T17:52:42.000Z","2052-09-08T17:52:42.000Z"
"I will win a Nobel Prize in literature in 40 years.",0,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-08T17:52:42.000Z","2012-09-08T17:52:42.000Z","2052-09-08T17:52:42.000Z"
"I will win a Nobel Prize in literature in 40 years.",0,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:59:19.170Z","2012-09-08T17:52:42.000Z","2052-09-08T17:52:42.000Z"
"I will win a Nobel Prize in literature in 40 years.",0,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T01:46:47.740Z","2012-09-08T17:52:42.000Z","2052-09-08T17:52:42.000Z"
"I will win a Nobel Prize in literature in 40 years.",0,,"Filipe","gwern","I was kidding -.-",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-08T17:55:35.000Z","2012-09-08T17:52:42.000Z","2052-09-08T17:52:42.000Z"
"I will win a Nobel Prize in literature in 40 years.",3,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T12:59:28.000Z","2012-09-08T17:52:42.000Z","2052-09-08T17:52:42.000Z"
"""2061 Halley's Comet returns - first landing by humans, And the sensational discovery of both dormant and active life forms vindicates Wickramasinghe and Hoyle's century-old hypothesis that life exists through space."" --Arthur C. Clarke",5,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:47:01.673Z","2010-10-26T16:41:27.000Z","2062-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""2061 Halley's Comet returns - first landing by humans, And the sensational discovery of both dormant and active life forms vindicates Wickramasinghe and Hoyle's century-old hypothesis that life exists through space."" --Arthur C. Clarke",3,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T02:17:32.000Z","2010-10-26T16:41:27.000Z","2062-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""2061 Halley's Comet returns - first landing by humans, And the sensational discovery of both dormant and active life forms vindicates Wickramasinghe and Hoyle's century-old hypothesis that life exists through space."" --Arthur C. Clarke",1,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-12T13:54:41.000Z","2010-10-26T16:41:27.000Z","2062-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""2061 Halley's Comet returns - first landing by humans, And the sensational discovery of both dormant and active life forms vindicates Wickramasinghe and Hoyle's century-old hypothesis that life exists through space."" --Arthur C. Clarke",5,,"kallman","gwern","Though we probably treat it like a heritage site, and doubt landing is appropriate term.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-22T23:10:20.000Z","2010-10-26T16:41:27.000Z","2062-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""2061 Halley's Comet returns - first landing by humans, And the sensational discovery of both dormant and active life forms vindicates Wickramasinghe and Hoyle's century-old hypothesis that life exists through space."" --Arthur C. Clarke",2,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-26T16:41:27.000Z","2010-10-26T16:41:27.000Z","2062-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""2061 Halley's Comet returns - first landing by humans, And the sensational discovery of both dormant and active life forms vindicates Wickramasinghe and Hoyle's century-old hypothesis that life exists through space."" --Arthur C. Clarke",2,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-01T14:15:18.000Z","2010-10-26T16:41:27.000Z","2062-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Holographic TV is mainstream' in 2020",0,,"NickN","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-17T01:13:34.905Z","2010-10-23T00:45:01.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Holographic TV is mainstream' in 2020",1,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-27T07:32:42.453Z","2010-10-23T00:45:01.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Holographic TV is mainstream' in 2020",4,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-10T00:17:42.116Z","2010-10-23T00:45:01.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Holographic TV is mainstream' in 2020",1,,"telegrafista","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-14T15:55:04.721Z","2010-10-23T00:45:01.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Holographic TV is mainstream' in 2020",0,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-27T07:32:49.880Z","2010-10-23T00:45:01.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Holographic TV is mainstream' in 2020",30,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-23T00:45:01.000Z","2010-10-23T00:45:01.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Holographic TV is mainstream' in 2020",3,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T01:54:27.000Z","2010-10-23T00:45:01.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Holographic TV is mainstream' in 2020",5,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-09T19:31:00.672Z","2010-10-23T00:45:01.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Secretary of Education Sarah Palin",34,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-01T11:05:33.000Z","2016-08-01T11:05:33.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Secretary of Education Sarah Palin",1,,"two2thehead","themusicgod1","1",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-13T22:27:32.000Z","2016-08-01T11:05:33.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Secretary of Education Sarah Palin",1,,"bobpage","themusicgod1","< 1%",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-14T02:56:34.000Z","2016-08-01T11:05:33.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Secretary of Education Sarah Palin",4,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-19T06:55:27.000Z","2016-08-01T11:05:33.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Secretary of Education Sarah Palin",2,,"PlacidPlatypus","themusicgod1","Unless you think Clinton's likely to appoint her, that seems really high. Any particular reason you think Education?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-09T20:23:47.000Z","2016-08-01T11:05:33.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Secretary of Education Sarah Palin",2,,"alecbrooks","themusicgod1","Even if Trump wins, it seems like there are many more likely candidates.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-13T21:51:41.000Z","2016-08-01T11:05:33.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Secretary of Education Sarah Palin",0,,"Dapple","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-11T20:35:34.000Z","2016-08-01T11:05:33.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Attention Deficit Disorder more prevalent in hacker community(based on multiple, broad criteria) than baseline at a statistically significant level (at least in 2010s)",25,,"Expipiplusone","themusicgod1","I'd rather bet on Asperger than ADHD",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-26T16:50:13.000Z","2016-08-01T13:23:20.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Attention Deficit Disorder more prevalent in hacker community(based on multiple, broad criteria) than baseline at a statistically significant level (at least in 2010s)",73,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-01T13:23:20.000Z","2016-08-01T13:23:20.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Attention Deficit Disorder more prevalent in hacker community(based on multiple, broad criteria) than baseline at a statistically significant level (at least in 2010s)",90,,"two2thehead","themusicgod1","The only complaint I could make is defining what the hacker community consists of.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-01T13:58:03.000Z","2016-08-01T13:23:20.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Attention Deficit Disorder more prevalent in hacker community(based on multiple, broad criteria) than baseline at a statistically significant level (at least in 2010s)",90,,"bendini","themusicgod1","10% hedge for technicalities",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-01T22:20:08.000Z","2016-08-01T13:23:20.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Attention Deficit Disorder more prevalent in hacker community(based on multiple, broad criteria) than baseline at a statistically significant level (at least in 2010s)",60,,"EloiseRosen","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-02T00:31:39.000Z","2016-08-01T13:23:20.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Attention Deficit Disorder more prevalent in hacker community(based on multiple, broad criteria) than baseline at a statistically significant level (at least in 2010s)",40,,"BigRaims","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-16T01:46:54.000Z","2016-08-01T13:23:20.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2057 On October 4, the centenary of Sputnik 1, the dawn of the space age is celebrated by humans on Earth, the Moon, Mars, Europa, Ganymede and Titan, and in orbit around Venus, Neptune and Pluto.' --Arthur C. Clarke",2,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:47:20.728Z","2010-10-26T16:40:09.000Z","2058-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2057 On October 4, the centenary of Sputnik 1, the dawn of the space age is celebrated by humans on Earth, the Moon, Mars, Europa, Ganymede and Titan, and in orbit around Venus, Neptune and Pluto.' --Arthur C. Clarke",0,,"Anubhav","gwern","Yay conjunctions!",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-12T13:53:49.000Z","2010-10-26T16:40:09.000Z","2058-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2057 On October 4, the centenary of Sputnik 1, the dawn of the space age is celebrated by humans on Earth, the Moon, Mars, Europa, Ganymede and Titan, and in orbit around Venus, Neptune and Pluto.' --Arthur C. Clarke",1,,"JoshuaZ","gwern","If it were ""at least two of these bodies"" I'd find it much more likely. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-01T14:10:26.000Z","2010-10-26T16:40:09.000Z","2058-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2057 On October 4, the centenary of Sputnik 1, the dawn of the space age is celebrated by humans on Earth, the Moon, Mars, Europa, Ganymede and Titan, and in orbit around Venus, Neptune and Pluto.' --Arthur C. Clarke",2,,"anonym","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-27T20:23:32.000Z","2010-10-26T16:40:09.000Z","2058-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2057 On October 4, the centenary of Sputnik 1, the dawn of the space age is celebrated by humans on Earth, the Moon, Mars, Europa, Ganymede and Titan, and in orbit around Venus, Neptune and Pluto.' --Arthur C. Clarke",0,,"6thNapoleon","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-08T20:52:03.868Z","2010-10-26T16:40:09.000Z","2058-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2057 On October 4, the centenary of Sputnik 1, the dawn of the space age is celebrated by humans on Earth, the Moon, Mars, Europa, Ganymede and Titan, and in orbit around Venus, Neptune and Pluto.' --Arthur C. Clarke",1,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-26T16:40:09.000Z","2010-10-26T16:40:09.000Z","2058-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Jill Stein will be President of the United States any time before 2034",0,,"bobpage","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-21T06:15:55.000Z","2016-08-21T06:15:55.000Z","2034-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Jill Stein will be President of the United States any time before 2034",47,,"themusicgod1","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-21T19:08:21.000Z","2016-08-21T06:15:55.000Z","2034-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Jill Stein will be President of the United States any time before 2034",2,,"NathanMcKnight","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-25T14:48:20.000Z","2016-08-21T06:15:55.000Z","2034-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Jill Stein will be President of the United States any time before 2034",0,,"Temeraire","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-04T02:38:08.000Z","2016-08-21T06:15:55.000Z","2034-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Jill Stein will be President of the United States any time before 2034",1,,"Andrew MacFie","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-23T00:34:20.000Z","2016-08-21T06:15:55.000Z","2034-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Jill Stein will be President of the United States any time before 2034",0,,"Dapple","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-28T01:41:54.000Z","2016-08-21T06:15:55.000Z","2034-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"What probability do you assign to the possibility of a human level AGI to self-modify its way up to massive superhuman intelligence within < 5 years?",99,,"Larry Wasserman","Alexander Kruel",,"In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it. The formalized question was: P(superhuman intelligence within < 5 years | human-level AI running at human-level speed equipped with a 100 GB Internet connection) = ?.","AI,ai-interviews","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"What probability do you assign to the possibility of a human level AGI to self-modify its way up to massive superhuman intelligence within < 5 years?",0.01,,"Tim Finin","Alexander Kruel","Note: Tim did not specify whether he was indicating '0.01%' or '0.01, i.e. 1%'","In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it. The formalized question was: P(superhuman intelligence within < 5 years | human-level AI running at human-level speed equipped with a 100 GB Internet connection) = ?.","AI,ai-interviews","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"What probability do you assign to the possibility of a human level AGI to self-modify its way up to massive superhuman intelligence within < 5 years?",1,,"Brandon Rohrer","Alexander Kruel","Brandon's exact prediction was < 1%. ","In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it. The formalized question was: P(superhuman intelligence within < 5 years | human-level AI running at human-level speed equipped with a 100 GB Internet connection) = ?.","AI,ai-interviews","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"What probability do you assign to the possibility of a human level AGI to self-modify its way up to massive superhuman intelligence within < 5 years?",90,,"Nils Nilsson","Alexander Kruel","Nilsson's explanation: ""I'll assume that you mean sometime during this century, and that my ""employment test"" is the measure of superhuman intelligence.""","In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it. The formalized question was: P(superhuman intelligence within < 5 years | human-level AI running at human-level speed equipped with a 100 GB Internet connection) = ?.","AI,ai-interviews","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"What probability do you assign to the possibility of a human level AGI to self-modify its way up to massive superhuman intelligence within < 5 years?",1,,"Michael Littman","Alexander Kruel",,"In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it. The formalized question was: P(superhuman intelligence within < 5 years | human-level AI running at human-level speed equipped with a 100 GB Internet connection) = ?.","AI,ai-interviews","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"What probability do you assign to the possibility of a human level AGI to self-modify its way up to massive superhuman intelligence within < 5 years?",0,,"Pat Hayes","Alexander Kruel",,"In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it. The formalized question was: P(superhuman intelligence within < 5 years | human-level AI running at human-level speed equipped with a 100 GB Internet connection) = ?.","AI,ai-interviews","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"'Artificial Intelligence reaches human level. From now on there are two intelligent species on Earth.' --Arthur C. Clarke",2,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-26T02:44:00.000Z","2010-10-26T02:44:00.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Artificial Intelligence reaches human level. From now on there are two intelligent species on Earth.' --Arthur C. Clarke",5,,"anonym","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-27T20:32:10.000Z","2010-10-26T02:44:00.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Artificial Intelligence reaches human level. From now on there are two intelligent species on Earth.' --Arthur C. Clarke",10,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-17T15:31:44.000Z","2010-10-26T02:44:00.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Artificial Intelligence reaches human level. From now on there are two intelligent species on Earth.' --Arthur C. Clarke",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T02:04:31.000Z","2010-10-26T02:44:00.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Artificial Intelligence reaches human level. From now on there are two intelligent species on Earth.' --Arthur C. Clarke",2,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:52:34.045Z","2010-10-26T02:44:00.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Artificial Intelligence reaches human level. From now on there are two intelligent species on Earth.' --Arthur C. Clarke",0,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-12T00:58:53.999Z","2010-10-26T02:44:00.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Gorillas are extinct in Central Africa' by 2023",55,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-26T16:35:17.000Z","2010-10-26T16:35:17.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Gorillas are extinct in Central Africa' by 2023",10,,"Unknowns","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-27T04:24:11.000Z","2010-10-26T16:35:17.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Gorillas are extinct in Central Africa' by 2023",45,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-27T12:06:10.000Z","2010-10-26T16:35:17.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Gorillas are extinct in Central Africa' by 2023",2,,"jesselevine","gwern","I highly, highly doubt this.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-28T20:42:42.000Z","2010-10-26T16:35:17.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Gorillas are extinct in Central Africa' by 2023",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-10T00:07:26.000Z","2010-10-26T16:35:17.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Gorillas are extinct in Central Africa' by 2023",35,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:52:05.246Z","2010-10-26T16:35:17.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2024 Infrared signals are detected coming from the centre of the Galaxy, obviously the product of a technologically advanced civilisation. All attempts to decipher them fail.' --Arthur C. Clarke",0,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:49:02.672Z","2010-10-26T16:38:03.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2024 Infrared signals are detected coming from the centre of the Galaxy, obviously the product of a technologically advanced civilisation. All attempts to decipher them fail.' --Arthur C. Clarke",3,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T02:12:53.000Z","2010-10-26T16:38:03.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2024 Infrared signals are detected coming from the centre of the Galaxy, obviously the product of a technologically advanced civilisation. All attempts to decipher them fail.' --Arthur C. Clarke",1,,"chemotaxis101","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T20:15:37.082Z","2010-10-26T16:38:03.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2024 Infrared signals are detected coming from the centre of the Galaxy, obviously the product of a technologically advanced civilisation. All attempts to decipher them fail.' --Arthur C. Clarke",1,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-26T16:38:03.000Z","2010-10-26T16:38:03.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2024 Infrared signals are detected coming from the centre of the Galaxy, obviously the product of a technologically advanced civilisation. All attempts to decipher them fail.' --Arthur C. Clarke",1,,"anonym","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-27T20:32:26.000Z","2010-10-26T16:38:03.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2024 Infrared signals are detected coming from the centre of the Galaxy, obviously the product of a technologically advanced civilisation. All attempts to decipher them fail.' --Arthur C. Clarke",1,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-01T14:14:43.000Z","2010-10-26T16:38:03.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within ten years, at least one planet of < 3 Earth masses will be discovered in one of the liquid water habitable zones in the Alpha Centauri system. ",50,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-17T13:33:54.000Z","2012-10-17T13:33:54.000Z","2022-10-18T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within ten years, at least one planet of < 3 Earth masses will be discovered in one of the liquid water habitable zones in the Alpha Centauri system. ",40,,"gwern","NathanMcKnight","I don't even know what the base rate here should be",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-21T04:16:09.000Z","2012-10-17T13:33:54.000Z","2022-10-18T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within ten years, at least one planet of < 3 Earth masses will be discovered in one of the liquid water habitable zones in the Alpha Centauri system. ",50,,"pranomostro","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:26:04.264Z","2012-10-17T13:33:54.000Z","2022-10-18T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within ten years, at least one planet of < 3 Earth masses will be discovered in one of the liquid water habitable zones in the Alpha Centauri system. ",35,,"RandomThinker","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-17T20:31:05.000Z","2012-10-17T13:33:54.000Z","2022-10-18T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within ten years, at least one planet of < 3 Earth masses will be discovered in one of the liquid water habitable zones in the Alpha Centauri system. ",44,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:51:09.000Z","2012-10-17T13:33:54.000Z","2022-10-18T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within ten years, at least one planet of < 3 Earth masses will be discovered in one of the liquid water habitable zones in the Alpha Centauri system. ",41,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-17T13:48:16.000Z","2012-10-17T13:33:54.000Z","2022-10-18T12:00:00.000Z"
"oil consumption will remain at or above current levels for at least 20 years",15,,"sam_jaques","kjaques","""Remain"" means if 2020 is an outlier then this is false, right?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-01T08:46:22.405Z","2019-11-30T19:38:23.483Z","2039-11-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"oil consumption will remain at or above current levels for at least 20 years",40,,"bcongdon","kjaques",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T04:40:45.482Z","2019-11-30T19:38:23.483Z","2039-11-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"oil consumption will remain at or above current levels for at least 20 years",42,,"HiJoshuaZ","kjaques",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-23T05:02:45.098Z","2019-11-30T19:38:23.483Z","2039-11-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"oil consumption will remain at or above current levels for at least 20 years",42,,"JoshuaZ","kjaques",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-08T13:41:06.356Z","2019-11-30T19:38:23.483Z","2039-11-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"oil consumption will remain at or above current levels for at least 20 years",65,,"pranomostro","kjaques",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-01T22:51:43.978Z","2019-11-30T19:38:23.483Z","2039-11-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"oil consumption will remain at or above current levels for at least 20 years",70,,"kjaques","kjaques",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-30T19:38:23.488Z","2019-11-30T19:38:23.483Z","2039-11-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"2025: Less than 50% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges.",15,,"pranomostro","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T00:19:41.378Z","2012-02-25T03:05:39.000Z","2025-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"2025: Less than 50% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges.",15,,"Baeboo","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T05:22:24.511Z","2012-02-25T03:05:39.000Z","2025-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"2025: Less than 50% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges.",70,,"Anubhav","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-25T03:05:39.000Z","2012-02-25T03:05:39.000Z","2025-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"2025: Less than 50% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges.",47,,"themusicgod1","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T00:27:43.000Z","2012-02-25T03:05:39.000Z","2025-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"2025: Less than 50% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges.",47,,"Ben Doherty","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-27T03:53:57.000Z","2012-02-25T03:05:39.000Z","2025-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"2025: Less than 50% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges.",30,,"gwern","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-26T21:26:14.000Z","2012-02-25T03:05:39.000Z","2025-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"2025: Less than 20% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges.",10,,"pranomostro","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T00:19:51.934Z","2012-02-25T03:03:18.000Z","2025-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"2025: Less than 20% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges.",47,,"themusicgod1","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T00:27:20.000Z","2012-02-25T03:03:18.000Z","2025-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"2025: Less than 20% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges.",1,,"Ben Doherty","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-27T03:54:22.000Z","2012-02-25T03:03:18.000Z","2025-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"2025: Less than 20% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges.",25,,"gwern","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-26T21:26:21.000Z","2012-02-25T03:03:18.000Z","2025-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"2025: Less than 20% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges.",60,,"Anubhav","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-25T03:03:18.000Z","2012-02-25T03:03:18.000Z","2025-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"2025: Less than 20% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges.",10,,"Baeboo","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T05:23:34.871Z","2012-02-25T03:03:18.000Z","2025-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"California will secede by 31 December 2030.",80,,"najdorf","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-10T04:09:15.274Z","2020-09-10T04:09:15.269Z","2030-12-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede by 31 December 2030.",2,,"Liging","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-18T04:39:19.978Z","2020-09-10T04:09:15.269Z","2030-12-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede by 31 December 2030.",0,,"Bruno Parga","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T12:47:20.960Z","2020-09-10T04:09:15.269Z","2030-12-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede by 31 December 2030.",0,,"batemancapital","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-22T02:10:19.635Z","2020-09-10T04:09:15.269Z","2030-12-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede by 31 December 2030.",1,,"lalaithion","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-14T20:06:35.019Z","2020-09-10T04:09:15.269Z","2030-12-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"California will secede by 31 December 2030.",0,,"Baeboo","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-14T21:00:59.858Z","2020-09-10T04:09:15.269Z","2030-12-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"One of {Uber, Twitter, Tumblr, Facebook, Magic Leap, Coinbase} will collapse.",68,,"Baeboo","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-12T05:05:39.695Z","2019-01-08T20:58:01.235Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"One of {Uber, Twitter, Tumblr, Facebook, Magic Leap, Coinbase} will collapse.",55,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T20:58:01.242Z","2019-01-08T20:58:01.235Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"One of {Uber, Twitter, Tumblr, Facebook, Magic Leap, Coinbase} will collapse.",34,,"lalaithion","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-12T18:03:13.742Z","2019-01-08T20:58:01.235Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"One of {Uber, Twitter, Tumblr, Facebook, Magic Leap, Coinbase} will collapse.",75,,"Medea","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-11T09:00:43.440Z","2019-01-08T20:58:01.235Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"One of {Uber, Twitter, Tumblr, Facebook, Magic Leap, Coinbase} will collapse.",60,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:06:21.570Z","2019-01-08T20:58:01.235Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"One of {Uber, Twitter, Tumblr, Facebook, Magic Leap, Coinbase} will collapse.",80,,"Baeboo","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T05:21:01.594Z","2019-01-08T20:58:01.235Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"One of {Uber, Twitter, Tumblr, Facebook, Magic Leap, Coinbase} will collapse.",59,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","pranomostro","this is basically equivalent to ""magic leap will collapse by 2025""",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-08T10:23:29.802Z","2019-01-08T20:58:01.235Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"One of {Uber, Twitter, Tumblr, Facebook, Magic Leap, Coinbase} will collapse.",40,,"aoeu","pranomostro","probably Magic Leap",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-12T14:27:00.960Z","2019-01-08T20:58:01.235Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"At least 10k people are living on Mars by the end of 2049.",6,,"Baeboo","Mathieu_Putz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-07T00:34:49.366Z","2020-06-06T14:26:36.876Z","2049-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 10k people are living on Mars by the end of 2049.",3,,"JoshuaZ","Mathieu_Putz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-07T01:04:46.420Z","2020-06-06T14:26:36.876Z","2049-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 10k people are living on Mars by the end of 2049.",10,,"Mathieu_Putz","Mathieu_Putz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-06T14:26:36.880Z","2020-06-06T14:26:36.876Z","2049-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 10k people are living on Mars by the end of 2049.",1,,"sortega","Mathieu_Putz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-07T11:40:40.197Z","2020-06-06T14:26:36.876Z","2049-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 10k people are living on Mars by the end of 2049.",5,,"Mathieu_Putz","Mathieu_Putz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-07T14:05:16.998Z","2020-06-06T14:26:36.876Z","2049-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 10k people are living on Mars by the end of 2049.",6,,"PseudonymousUser","Mathieu_Putz","Maybe dozens, hundreds, but definitely don't think thousands.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-09T17:15:59.061Z","2020-06-06T14:26:36.876Z","2049-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 10k people are living on Mars by the end of 2049.",5,,"pvoberstein","Mathieu_Putz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-13T22:45:37.424Z","2020-06-06T14:26:36.876Z","2049-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Second Falklands War before 2035",20,,"Jayson Virissimo","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-08T04:07:00.000Z","2012-02-07T18:55:48.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Second Falklands War before 2035",22,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-07T18:55:48.000Z","2012-02-07T18:55:48.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Second Falklands War before 2035",20,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T00:21:03.489Z","2012-02-07T18:55:48.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Second Falklands War before 2035",47,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T00:23:18.000Z","2012-02-07T18:55:48.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Second Falklands War before 2035",20,,"Leo","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-14T17:14:36.000Z","2012-02-07T18:55:48.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Second Falklands War before 2035",15,,"gwern","JoshuaZ","war is generally acknowledged as a wasteful mistake in both countries, I think",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-07T20:50:28.000Z","2012-02-07T18:55:48.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Apple will introduce some kind of augmented reality wearable device.",20,,"stepan","quanticle",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-27T08:03:17.477Z","2019-05-27T05:10:53.205Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Apple will introduce some kind of augmented reality wearable device.",70,,"AlexLamson","quanticle",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-30T20:44:33.712Z","2019-05-27T05:10:53.205Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Apple will introduce some kind of augmented reality wearable device.",28,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","quanticle","Does it count if it's just built into the iPhone?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-08T09:00:16.808Z","2019-05-27T05:10:53.205Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Apple will introduce some kind of augmented reality wearable device.",35,,"Antbak","quanticle","I think this Apple is working on an augmented reality device but I'm much less sure they're release it before 2021",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-06T17:43:07.687Z","2019-05-27T05:10:53.205Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Apple will introduce some kind of augmented reality wearable device.",50,,"quanticle","quanticle",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-27T05:10:53.218Z","2019-05-27T05:10:53.205Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Apple will introduce some kind of augmented reality wearable device.",60,,"pranomostro","quanticle",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-27T20:44:16.919Z","2019-05-27T05:10:53.205Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Apple will introduce some kind of augmented reality wearable device.",36,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","quanticle",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-31T01:30:14.398Z","2019-05-27T05:10:53.205Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A longterm (with humans present at least sixth months) colony will occur on Mars before it occurs on the Earth's moon. ",66,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-13T19:33:19.000Z","2016-02-13T19:33:19.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A longterm (with humans present at least sixth months) colony will occur on Mars before it occurs on the Earth's moon. ",75,,"mrmrpotatohead","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-23T08:36:36.000Z","2016-02-13T19:33:19.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A longterm (with humans present at least sixth months) colony will occur on Mars before it occurs on the Earth's moon. ",10,,"btrettel","JoshuaZ","Establishing a colony on Mars will only be harder than the Moon. There is no reason to not do the Moon first. I also take ""colony"" to mean more than a dozen people or so, not only a few people.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-19T21:34:41.000Z","2016-02-13T19:33:19.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A longterm (with humans present at least sixth months) colony will occur on Mars before it occurs on the Earth's moon. ",70,,"equivrel","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-14T00:24:55.000Z","2016-02-13T19:33:19.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A longterm (with humans present at least sixth months) colony will occur on Mars before it occurs on the Earth's moon. ",80,,"splorridge","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-14T10:39:26.000Z","2016-02-13T19:33:19.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A longterm (with humans present at least sixth months) colony will occur on Mars before it occurs on the Earth's moon. ",50,,"EloiseRosen","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-15T00:43:54.000Z","2016-02-13T19:33:19.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be at least one implanted device (medical or otherwise) on the market that runs a Linux-based OS within the next 10 years.",50,,"gwern","Jayson Virissimo","US market, as in FDA approved?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-07-14T14:37:54.000Z","2012-07-01T04:18:37.000Z","2022-07-01T04:18:37.000Z"
"There will be at least one implanted device (medical or otherwise) on the market that runs a Linux-based OS within the next 10 years.",90,,"antsan","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-07-13T15:18:43.000Z","2012-07-01T04:18:37.000Z","2022-07-01T04:18:37.000Z"
"There will be at least one implanted device (medical or otherwise) on the market that runs a Linux-based OS within the next 10 years.",55,,"Jayson Virissimo","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-07-01T04:18:37.000Z","2012-07-01T04:18:37.000Z","2022-07-01T04:18:37.000Z"
"There will be at least one implanted device (medical or otherwise) on the market that runs a Linux-based OS within the next 10 years.",60,,"Baeboo","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T00:28:24.053Z","2012-07-01T04:18:37.000Z","2022-07-01T04:18:37.000Z"
"There will be at least one implanted device (medical or otherwise) on the market that runs a Linux-based OS within the next 10 years.",60,,"pranomostro","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-10T20:55:16.753Z","2012-07-01T04:18:37.000Z","2022-07-01T04:18:37.000Z"
"There will be at least one implanted device (medical or otherwise) on the market that runs a Linux-based OS within the next 10 years.",80,,"themusicgod1","Jayson Virissimo","Debian made a big push for medical use-cases 1 version ago now & linux is big in embedded systems/IoT.  It's probably already happening.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T01:54:38.000Z","2012-07-01T04:18:37.000Z","2022-07-01T04:18:37.000Z"
"I will be using Linux in 10 years",63,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T01:02:27.000Z","2012-06-28T23:59:23.000Z","2022-06-28T23:59:23.000Z"
"I will be using Linux in 10 years",52,,"bobpage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-07-04T19:20:41.000Z","2012-06-28T23:59:23.000Z","2022-06-28T23:59:23.000Z"
"I will be using Linux in 10 years",65,,"chemotaxis101","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-07-01T15:27:50.000Z","2012-06-28T23:59:23.000Z","2022-06-28T23:59:23.000Z"
"I will be using Linux in 10 years",75,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern","http://predictionbook.com/predictions/7435",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-07-01T04:19:17.000Z","2012-06-28T23:59:23.000Z","2022-06-28T23:59:23.000Z"
"I will be using Linux in 10 years",80,,"papermachine","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-06-29T01:27:16.000Z","2012-06-28T23:59:23.000Z","2022-06-28T23:59:23.000Z"
"I will be using Linux in 10 years",80,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-06-28T23:59:23.000Z","2012-06-28T23:59:23.000Z","2022-06-28T23:59:23.000Z"
"Rothfuss's _The Doors of Stone_ (bk3) will end with the recounting of Kvothe's life up to opening the inn, with no further adventures.",25,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-05T03:18:13.000Z","2012-09-05T02:06:58.000Z","2019-01-01T20:16:55.000Z"
"Rothfuss's _The Doors of Stone_ (bk3) will end with the recounting of Kvothe's life up to opening the inn, with no further adventures.",25,,"drethelin","gwern","I have a high probability that much of the story up to now is lies by Kvothe, so it wouldn't surprise me too much if the text of the story ends at the Inn but with a strong implication that everything is going according to Keikaku",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-05T18:02:56.000Z","2012-09-05T02:06:58.000Z","2019-01-01T20:16:55.000Z"
"Rothfuss's _The Doors of Stone_ (bk3) will end with the recounting of Kvothe's life up to opening the inn, with no further adventures.",15,,"davatk","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-26T16:42:29.000Z","2012-09-05T02:06:58.000Z","2019-01-01T20:16:55.000Z"
"Rothfuss's _The Doors of Stone_ (bk3) will end with the recounting of Kvothe's life up to opening the inn, with no further adventures.",30,,"Chri","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-04T09:26:25.000Z","2012-09-05T02:06:58.000Z","2019-01-01T20:16:55.000Z"
"Rothfuss's _The Doors of Stone_ (bk3) will end with the recounting of Kvothe's life up to opening the inn, with no further adventures.",5,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-05T02:06:58.000Z","2012-09-05T02:06:58.000Z","2019-01-01T20:16:55.000Z"
"Rothfuss's _The Doors of Stone_ (bk3) will end with the recounting of Kvothe's life up to opening the inn, with no further adventures.",7,,"beo_shaffer","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-05T03:09:36.000Z","2012-09-05T02:06:58.000Z","2019-01-01T20:16:55.000Z"
"The world will not end before 2050",99,,"Lyaer","Lyaer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-18T19:26:26.000Z","2012-08-18T19:26:26.000Z","2050-01-02T04:00:00.000Z"
"The world will not end before 2050",99,,"kilobug","Lyaer","But depends what you mean with ""world will end"".",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-23T16:08:48.000Z","2012-08-18T19:26:26.000Z","2050-01-02T04:00:00.000Z"
"The world will not end before 2050",90,,"gwern","Lyaer","indeed. do rogue AI count?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-23T19:54:37.000Z","2012-08-18T19:26:26.000Z","2050-01-02T04:00:00.000Z"
"The world will not end before 2050",75,,"pranomostro","Lyaer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-10T20:52:35.471Z","2012-08-18T19:26:26.000Z","2050-01-02T04:00:00.000Z"
"The world will not end before 2050",63,,"themusicgod1","Lyaer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T06:16:31.000Z","2012-08-18T19:26:26.000Z","2050-01-02T04:00:00.000Z"
"The world will not end before 2050",100,,"Tuxedage","Lyaer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-03T19:36:21.000Z","2012-08-18T19:26:26.000Z","2050-01-02T04:00:00.000Z"
"At least one country will decide its head of state by a reality show with real time votes by 2050",6,,"splorridge","volis",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T11:37:31.000Z","2018-01-11T06:41:39.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one country will decide its head of state by a reality show with real time votes by 2050",16,,"JoshuaZ","volis",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-01-11T17:09:34.000Z","2018-01-11T06:41:39.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one country will decide its head of state by a reality show with real time votes by 2050",20,,"volis","volis",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-01-11T06:41:39.000Z","2018-01-11T06:41:39.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one country will decide its head of state by a reality show with real time votes by 2050",8,,"Baeboo","volis",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-21T02:59:05.785Z","2018-01-11T06:41:39.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one country will decide its head of state by a reality show with real time votes by 2050",5,,"Medea","volis",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-03-09T10:20:07.000Z","2018-01-11T06:41:39.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one country will decide its head of state by a reality show with real time votes by 2050",8,,"pranomostro","volis",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-20T13:54:17.564Z","2018-01-11T06:41:39.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Donald Trump will die within five years.",22,,"JoshuaZ","JohnGreer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-25T18:57:37.334Z","2020-07-25T17:52:26.092Z","2025-07-25T17:52:26.000Z"
"Donald Trump will die within five years.",12,,"JoshuaZ","JohnGreer","Ahh, anchoring bias!",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-25T18:58:25.203Z","2020-07-25T17:52:26.092Z","2025-07-25T17:52:26.000Z"
"Donald Trump will die within five years.",12,,"InquilineKea","JohnGreer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-27T05:59:53.913Z","2020-07-25T17:52:26.092Z","2025-07-25T17:52:26.000Z"
"Donald Trump will die within five years.",50,,"bobpage","JohnGreer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-31T00:51:40.703Z","2020-07-25T17:52:26.092Z","2025-07-25T17:52:26.000Z"
"Donald Trump will die within five years.",34,,"JohnGreer","JohnGreer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-25T17:52:26.094Z","2020-07-25T17:52:26.092Z","2025-07-25T17:52:26.000Z"
"Donald Trump will die within five years.",17,,"PlacidPlatypus","JohnGreer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-31T16:34:38.425Z","2020-07-25T17:52:26.092Z","2025-07-25T17:52:26.000Z"
"Donald Trump will die within five years.",15,,"Michal_Dubrawski","JohnGreer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-10T00:29:05.605Z","2020-07-25T17:52:26.092Z","2025-07-25T17:52:26.000Z"
"A human neural connectome will have been mapped by 2092 --Charles Stross",85,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:09:15.176Z","2012-01-14T05:28:53.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A human neural connectome will have been mapped by 2092 --Charles Stross",97,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:54:53.000Z","2012-01-14T05:28:53.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A human neural connectome will have been mapped by 2092 --Charles Stross",100,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:53:54.000Z","2012-01-14T05:28:53.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A human neural connectome will have been mapped by 2092 --Charles Stross",97,,"lavalamp","gwern","(conditioned on no apocalypse-- in that case no one would be around to mark it as wrong)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-20T16:49:41.000Z","2012-01-14T05:28:53.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A human neural connectome will have been mapped by 2092 --Charles Stross",85,,"Anubhav","gwern","Non-negligible probability of apocalypse.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-16T05:16:51.000Z","2012-01-14T05:28:53.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A human neural connectome will have been mapped by 2092 --Charles Stross",99,,"Porejide","gwern","at the synapse level (>99.99% confidence in each call, >99.9% of possible synapses called)  in at least three individuals",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-16T04:26:34.000Z","2012-01-14T05:28:53.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A human neural connectome will have been mapped by 2092 --Charles Stross",90,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-14T05:28:53.000Z","2012-01-14T05:28:53.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Harvard University will have in-person classes for Spring 2021",60,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-03T03:39:31.098Z","2020-07-03T03:39:31.092Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Harvard University will have in-person classes for Spring 2021",60,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-03T06:44:31.791Z","2020-07-03T03:39:31.092Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Harvard University will have in-person classes for Spring 2021",5,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-11T18:18:57.909Z","2020-07-03T03:39:31.092Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Harvard University will have in-person classes for Spring 2021",50,,"ayegill","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-16T14:29:41.037Z","2020-07-03T03:39:31.092Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Harvard University will have in-person classes for Spring 2021",65,,"chemotaxis101","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-08T09:52:22.015Z","2020-07-03T03:39:31.092Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Harvard University will have in-person classes for Spring 2021",50,,"azatris","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-08T17:02:01.094Z","2020-07-03T03:39:31.092Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Harvard University will have in-person classes for Spring 2021",20,,"stepan","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-08T17:31:59.814Z","2020-07-03T03:39:31.092Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Harvard University will have in-person classes for Spring 2021",70,,"ayegill","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-16T14:19:50.538Z","2020-07-03T03:39:31.092Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Between 2012 and 2092, a new plague will kill 1M<x<1B people --Charles Stross",45,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:10:00.453Z","2012-01-14T05:25:31.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Between 2012 and 2092, a new plague will kill 1M<x<1B people --Charles Stross",58,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:53:33.000Z","2012-01-14T05:25:31.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Between 2012 and 2092, a new plague will kill 1M<x<1B people --Charles Stross",45,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-20T18:48:08.000Z","2012-01-14T05:25:31.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Between 2012 and 2092, a new plague will kill 1M<x<1B people --Charles Stross",45,,"lavalamp","gwern","Seems quite unlikely but that's a long time period.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-20T16:54:36.000Z","2012-01-14T05:25:31.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Between 2012 and 2092, a new plague will kill 1M<x<1B people --Charles Stross",38,,"spqr0a1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-17T19:17:34.000Z","2012-01-14T05:25:31.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Between 2012 and 2092, a new plague will kill 1M<x<1B people --Charles Stross",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-14T05:25:31.000Z","2012-01-14T05:25:31.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will be revealed to have been faking data of COVID-19 confirmed cases by at least 30% on or before the end of year 2020. ",70,,"sortega","jacobgreenleaf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-08T10:00:19.061Z","2020-04-08T02:27:19.567Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will be revealed to have been faking data of COVID-19 confirmed cases by at least 30% on or before the end of year 2020. ",50,,"PhysicsMonster","jacobgreenleaf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-09T07:10:10.263Z","2020-04-08T02:27:19.567Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will be revealed to have been faking data of COVID-19 confirmed cases by at least 30% on or before the end of year 2020. ",40,,"batemancapital","jacobgreenleaf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-17T02:55:53.927Z","2020-04-08T02:27:19.567Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will be revealed to have been faking data of COVID-19 confirmed cases by at least 30% on or before the end of year 2020. ",60,,"jacobgreenleaf","jacobgreenleaf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-08T02:27:19.573Z","2020-04-08T02:27:19.567Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will be revealed to have been faking data of COVID-19 confirmed cases by at least 30% on or before the end of year 2020. ",50,,"Baeboo","jacobgreenleaf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-09T00:09:01.288Z","2020-04-08T02:27:19.567Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will be revealed to have been faking data of COVID-19 confirmed cases by at least 30% on or before the end of year 2020. ",40,,"credunkist","jacobgreenleaf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-03T20:42:50.098Z","2020-04-08T02:27:19.567Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Diabetes cured by 2092 --Charles Stross",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:53:02.000Z","2012-01-14T05:24:01.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Diabetes cured by 2092 --Charles Stross",75,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-30T11:23:25.000Z","2012-01-14T05:24:01.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Diabetes cured by 2092 --Charles Stross",87,,"spqr0a1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-17T19:06:31.000Z","2012-01-14T05:24:01.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Diabetes cured by 2092 --Charles Stross",85,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-14T05:24:01.000Z","2012-01-14T05:24:01.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Diabetes cured by 2092 --Charles Stross",83,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:10:35.433Z","2012-01-14T05:24:01.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Diabetes cured by 2092 --Charles Stross",85,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:10:30.936Z","2012-01-14T05:24:01.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Diabetes cured by 2092 --Charles Stross",97,,"lavalamp","gwern","I'd expect it before then, actually.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-20T16:50:23.000Z","2012-01-14T05:24:01.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one G20 nation (or sub-national territory of population > 1m) will re-impose at least one COVID-19 restriction after its relaxation in calendar 2020",75,,"Sashoir","Sashoir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-31T17:36:20.234Z","2020-03-31T17:36:20.230Z","2020-12-31T23:59:59.000Z"
"At least one G20 nation (or sub-national territory of population > 1m) will re-impose at least one COVID-19 restriction after its relaxation in calendar 2020",80,,"credunkist","Sashoir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-03T15:01:12.665Z","2020-03-31T17:36:20.230Z","2020-12-31T23:59:59.000Z"
"At least one G20 nation (or sub-national territory of population > 1m) will re-impose at least one COVID-19 restriction after its relaxation in calendar 2020",99,,"platypus42","Sashoir","I'm pretty sure this has already happened in some region of India, but I couldn't find evidence of it from a 10 min search. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-09T10:33:57.441Z","2020-03-31T17:36:20.230Z","2020-12-31T23:59:59.000Z"
"At least one G20 nation (or sub-national territory of population > 1m) will re-impose at least one COVID-19 restriction after its relaxation in calendar 2020",90,,"Stucwerk","Sashoir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-01T06:46:16.996Z","2020-03-31T17:36:20.230Z","2020-12-31T23:59:59.000Z"
"At least one G20 nation (or sub-national territory of population > 1m) will re-impose at least one COVID-19 restriction after its relaxation in calendar 2020",85,,"jjjsjd","Sashoir","The 2nd curve will hit us hard, if the economists keep pushing for early relaxations.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-01T20:46:34.447Z","2020-03-31T17:36:20.230Z","2020-12-31T23:59:59.000Z"
"At least one G20 nation (or sub-national territory of population > 1m) will re-impose at least one COVID-19 restriction after its relaxation in calendar 2020",90,,"NickN","Sashoir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-17T00:54:17.702Z","2020-03-31T17:36:20.230Z","2020-12-31T23:59:59.000Z"
"(regular price) Petri-dish veal cheaper than (regular price) cow-produced veal at at least one large market chain(for example Amazon, WalMart, Superstore, etc)",3,,"czabel","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-15T22:27:41.000Z","2017-11-02T15:34:55.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"(regular price) Petri-dish veal cheaper than (regular price) cow-produced veal at at least one large market chain(for example Amazon, WalMart, Superstore, etc)",5,,"Medea","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-10T15:23:43.000Z","2017-11-02T15:34:55.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"(regular price) Petri-dish veal cheaper than (regular price) cow-produced veal at at least one large market chain(for example Amazon, WalMart, Superstore, etc)",10,,"Athrithalix","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-09T14:09:48.000Z","2017-11-02T15:34:55.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"(regular price) Petri-dish veal cheaper than (regular price) cow-produced veal at at least one large market chain(for example Amazon, WalMart, Superstore, etc)",49,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1","hm.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-05T20:00:53.000Z","2017-11-02T15:34:55.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"(regular price) Petri-dish veal cheaper than (regular price) cow-produced veal at at least one large market chain(for example Amazon, WalMart, Superstore, etc)",2,,"timmartin","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-04T15:22:00.000Z","2017-11-02T15:34:55.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"(regular price) Petri-dish veal cheaper than (regular price) cow-produced veal at at least one large market chain(for example Amazon, WalMart, Superstore, etc)",10,,"penten","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-03T10:27:29.000Z","2017-11-02T15:34:55.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"(regular price) Petri-dish veal cheaper than (regular price) cow-produced veal at at least one large market chain(for example Amazon, WalMart, Superstore, etc)",51,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-02T15:34:55.000Z","2017-11-02T15:34:55.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Aaron Simmons will be elected President of the United States of America. ",0,,"Baeboo","Messias",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T03:43:18.027Z","2013-08-01T03:22:01.000Z","2032-11-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"Aaron Simmons will be elected President of the United States of America. ",1,,"pranomostro","Messias",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:19:39.209Z","2013-08-01T03:22:01.000Z","2032-11-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"Aaron Simmons will be elected President of the United States of America. ",0,,"Peter Hurford","Messias",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-06T14:23:11.000Z","2013-08-01T03:22:01.000Z","2032-11-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"Aaron Simmons will be elected President of the United States of America. ",100,,"Messias","Messias",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-01T03:22:01.000Z","2013-08-01T03:22:01.000Z","2032-11-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"Aaron Simmons will be elected President of the United States of America. ",0,,"holycow81","Messias",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-04T16:43:17.000Z","2013-08-01T03:22:01.000Z","2032-11-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"Aaron Simmons will be elected President of the United States of America. ",5,,"dhoe","Messias",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-01T10:38:08.000Z","2013-08-01T03:22:01.000Z","2032-11-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015",95,,"davatk","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-26T16:51:02.000Z","2015-07-13T11:16:55.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015",56,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea","AI has benefits, and Google has some of the best stuff.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-28T16:55:31.000Z","2015-07-13T11:16:55.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015",75,,"sdr","InquilineKea","As measured by stock ticker NASDAQ:GOOG, or 2021-equalent thereof",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-14T20:27:32.000Z","2015-07-13T11:16:55.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015",85,,"Chri","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-19T17:17:04.000Z","2015-07-13T11:16:55.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015",90,,"David","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-19T13:34:13.000Z","2015-07-13T11:16:55.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015",55,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T11:16:55.000Z","2015-07-13T11:16:55.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"25th amendment used to take Trump out before term is over https://twitter.com/ElliNude/status/918196663314874369",10,,"timmartin","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-29T21:17:53.000Z","2017-10-12T22:50:46.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"25th amendment used to take Trump out before term is over https://twitter.com/ElliNude/status/918196663314874369",10,,"Bruno Parga","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-17T21:41:52.000Z","2017-10-12T22:50:46.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"25th amendment used to take Trump out before term is over https://twitter.com/ElliNude/status/918196663314874369",45,,"iCrown","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-12T23:36:13.000Z","2017-10-12T22:50:46.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"25th amendment used to take Trump out before term is over https://twitter.com/ElliNude/status/918196663314874369",45,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-12T22:50:46.000Z","2017-10-12T22:50:46.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"25th amendment used to take Trump out before term is over https://twitter.com/ElliNude/status/918196663314874369",8,,"ccokeefe","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-27T15:07:52.000Z","2017-10-12T22:50:46.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"25th amendment used to take Trump out before term is over https://twitter.com/ElliNude/status/918196663314874369",5,,"davatk","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-26T22:42:46.000Z","2017-10-12T22:50:46.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"25th amendment used to take Trump out before term is over https://twitter.com/ElliNude/status/918196663314874369",0,,"Bruno Parga","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T12:16:57.071Z","2017-10-12T22:50:46.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"No new NK nuclear weapon tests in 2019",60,,"Baeboo","Coagulopath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-15T04:20:32.156Z","2019-02-13T00:14:54.029Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"No new NK nuclear weapon tests in 2019",60,,"pranomostro","Coagulopath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-14T19:57:57.492Z","2019-02-13T00:14:54.029Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"No new NK nuclear weapon tests in 2019",60,,"Cato","Coagulopath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-14T07:45:50.077Z","2019-02-13T00:14:54.029Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"No new NK nuclear weapon tests in 2019",70,,"Bruno Parga","Coagulopath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-13T00:21:28.148Z","2019-02-13T00:14:54.029Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"No new NK nuclear weapon tests in 2019",70,,"Coagulopath","Coagulopath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-13T00:14:54.034Z","2019-02-13T00:14:54.029Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"No new NK nuclear weapon tests in 2019",80,,"Bruno Parga","Coagulopath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-05T13:59:00.519Z","2019-02-13T00:14:54.029Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"No new NK nuclear weapon tests in 2019",77,,"6thNapoleon","Coagulopath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-24T18:44:00.326Z","2019-02-13T00:14:54.029Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"No new NK nuclear weapon tests in 2019",85,,"Cato","Coagulopath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-26T06:21:30.309Z","2019-02-13T00:14:54.029Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Airplanes are becoming less safe in the 2010's than they were in the 2000's in the U.S.",35,,"Porejide","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-21T17:34:04.000Z","2013-07-06T22:31:28.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Airplanes are becoming less safe in the 2010's than they were in the 2000's in the U.S.",35,,"gwern","RandomThinker","I think you're overweighting recent events",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-13T01:07:43.000Z","2013-07-06T22:31:28.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Airplanes are becoming less safe in the 2010's than they were in the 2000's in the U.S.",65,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-06T22:31:28.000Z","2013-07-06T22:31:28.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Airplanes are becoming less safe in the 2010's than they were in the 2000's in the U.S.",40,,"Baeboo","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T03:12:49.354Z","2013-07-06T22:31:28.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Airplanes are becoming less safe in the 2010's than they were in the 2000's in the U.S.",40,,"pranomostro","RandomThinker","Adjusting to higher flying rates.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T22:53:59.250Z","2013-07-06T22:31:28.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Airplanes are becoming less safe in the 2010's than they were in the 2000's in the U.S.",30,,"Jayson Virissimo","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-22T00:23:27.000Z","2013-07-06T22:31:28.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"http://fivethirtyeight.com/ to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",52,,"two2thehead","InquilineKea","Probably.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-14T00:57:48.000Z","2015-07-15T21:04:12.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"http://fivethirtyeight.com/ to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",52,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T16:15:39.000Z","2015-07-15T21:04:12.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"http://fivethirtyeight.com/ to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",51,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-27T14:18:42.000Z","2015-07-15T21:04:12.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"http://fivethirtyeight.com/ to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",70,,"jesselevine","InquilineKea","I agree that it will be more popular, and i followed 528 on the NYT blog before it went to ESPN. Nate Silver predicted 2012 election perfectly. I really don't understand why he says Clinton has a 99% of winning every damn race though",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T17:29:45.000Z","2015-07-15T21:04:12.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"http://fivethirtyeight.com/ to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",58,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T15:21:54.000Z","2015-07-15T21:04:12.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"http://fivethirtyeight.com/ to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",40,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-27T07:47:11.000Z","2015-07-15T21:04:12.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"http://fivethirtyeight.com/ to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-15T21:04:12.000Z","2015-07-15T21:04:12.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Donald Trump ends the NSA by executive order & creates a program to ensure secure communications for everyone in the world",0,,"Baeboo","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-20T02:26:59.578Z","2017-10-11T23:52:24.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Donald Trump ends the NSA by executive order & creates a program to ensure secure communications for everyone in the world",0,,"Cato","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-06T05:38:29.002Z","2017-10-11T23:52:24.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Donald Trump ends the NSA by executive order & creates a program to ensure secure communications for everyone in the world",0,,"davatk","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-26T16:53:50.000Z","2017-10-11T23:52:24.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Donald Trump ends the NSA by executive order & creates a program to ensure secure communications for everyone in the world",4,,"Baeboo","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-13T03:15:47.000Z","2017-10-11T23:52:24.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Donald Trump ends the NSA by executive order & creates a program to ensure secure communications for everyone in the world",5,,"two2thehead","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-12T04:04:46.000Z","2017-10-11T23:52:24.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Donald Trump ends the NSA by executive order & creates a program to ensure secure communications for everyone in the world",12,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-11T23:52:24.000Z","2017-10-11T23:52:24.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Donald Trump ends the NSA by executive order & creates a program to ensure secure communications for everyone in the world",0,,"NickN","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-28T22:14:55.190Z","2017-10-11T23:52:24.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"(Agreement) Non-obstruction is conceptually simpler than corrigibility.",99,,"Nicholas Kluge","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T19:02:26.911Z","2020-11-21T17:10:49.594Z","2100-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"(Agreement) Non-obstruction is conceptually simpler than corrigibility.",85,,"TurnTrout","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T17:18:54.098Z","2020-11-21T17:10:49.594Z","2100-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"(Agreement) Non-obstruction is conceptually simpler than corrigibility.",90,,"TurnTrout","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T17:19:13.282Z","2020-11-21T17:10:49.594Z","2100-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"(Agreement) Non-obstruction is conceptually simpler than corrigibility.",95,,"TurnTrout","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T19:33:36.581Z","2020-11-21T17:10:49.594Z","2100-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"(Agreement) Non-obstruction is conceptually simpler than corrigibility.",50,,"Gurkenglas","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T00:26:29.885Z","2020-11-21T17:10:49.594Z","2100-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"(Agreement) Non-obstruction is conceptually simpler than corrigibility.",67,,"Gurkenglas","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T00:26:56.165Z","2020-11-21T17:10:49.594Z","2100-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"(Agreement) Non-obstruction is conceptually simpler than corrigibility.",95,,"adamShimi","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:19:44.688Z","2020-11-21T17:10:49.594Z","2100-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"(Agreement) Non-obstruction is conceptually simpler than corrigibility.",90,,"Mark Xu","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:15:58.321Z","2020-11-21T17:10:49.594Z","2100-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Bitcoin will collapse as a currency by 2030",30,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T05:51:17.000Z","2015-07-28T05:51:17.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bitcoin will collapse as a currency by 2030",50,,"David","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T11:50:45.000Z","2015-07-28T05:51:17.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bitcoin will collapse as a currency by 2030",35,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T12:13:31.000Z","2015-07-28T05:51:17.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bitcoin will collapse as a currency by 2030",33,,"sflicht","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-25T19:11:18.000Z","2015-07-28T05:51:17.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bitcoin will collapse as a currency by 2030",30,,"ArturoGoosnargh","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-29T11:23:03.000Z","2015-07-28T05:51:17.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bitcoin will collapse as a currency by 2030",20,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-14T06:20:00.000Z","2015-07-28T05:51:17.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Strong AI to arise out of IBM",10,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T06:07:39.000Z","2015-07-28T06:07:39.000Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Strong AI to arise out of IBM",4,,"David","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T11:50:26.000Z","2015-07-28T06:07:39.000Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Strong AI to arise out of IBM",5,,"espore","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-02T20:55:01.000Z","2015-07-28T06:07:39.000Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Strong AI to arise out of IBM",35,,"ZeitPolizei","InquilineKea","not necessarily the first. i think there will be several non-superintelligent strong AIs before superintelligence, and IBM could have one of them.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-06T08:35:24.000Z","2015-07-28T06:07:39.000Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Strong AI to arise out of IBM",5,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-06T13:06:05.000Z","2015-07-28T06:07:39.000Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Strong AI to arise out of IBM",10,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T15:18:25.000Z","2015-07-28T06:07:39.000Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Either the average cost of a public university education in America will double, the median income of a 4-year-degree holder will fall to 125% of a high school diploma holder, or the expected value of a public university education will turn negative.",65,,"JoshuaZ","JohnWittle",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-17T18:43:30.000Z","2016-02-17T15:47:41.000Z","2025-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"Either the average cost of a public university education in America will double, the median income of a 4-year-degree holder will fall to 125% of a high school diploma holder, or the expected value of a public university education will turn negative.",38,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","JohnWittle",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-18T03:56:38.000Z","2016-02-17T15:47:41.000Z","2025-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"Either the average cost of a public university education in America will double, the median income of a 4-year-degree holder will fall to 125% of a high school diploma holder, or the expected value of a public university education will turn negative.",27,,"aarongertler","JohnWittle","Approximate increase in costs now seems to be about 5% per year, but people have been getting angrier about that, and I don't think the rate will be higher (on average) over the next ten years. Others seem unlikely as well.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-19T04:54:27.000Z","2016-02-17T15:47:41.000Z","2025-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"Either the average cost of a public university education in America will double, the median income of a 4-year-degree holder will fall to 125% of a high school diploma holder, or the expected value of a public university education will turn negative.",50,,"NickN","JohnWittle",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-19T22:55:08.526Z","2016-02-17T15:47:41.000Z","2025-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"Either the average cost of a public university education in America will double, the median income of a 4-year-degree holder will fall to 125% of a high school diploma holder, or the expected value of a public university education will turn negative.",80,,"JohnWittle","JohnWittle",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-17T15:47:41.000Z","2016-02-17T15:47:41.000Z","2025-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"Either the average cost of a public university education in America will double, the median income of a 4-year-degree holder will fall to 125% of a high school diploma holder, or the expected value of a public university education will turn negative.",20,,"appleseed","JohnWittle",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-17T16:04:09.000Z","2016-02-17T15:47:41.000Z","2025-06-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"Will MeasureBot beat EarlyBirdMimicBot in the true version of the LessWrong Darwin game?",20,"NO","Liam Donovan","Bucky O",,"https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HE7FZxmLA3QDWdvgq/the-darwin-game-conclusion","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T08:48:17.037Z","2020-11-21T21:20:13.365Z","2021-01-21T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will MeasureBot beat EarlyBirdMimicBot in the true version of the LessWrong Darwin game?",24,"NO","Liam Donovan","Bucky O",,"https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HE7FZxmLA3QDWdvgq/the-darwin-game-conclusion","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T08:48:21.740Z","2020-11-21T21:20:13.365Z","2021-01-21T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will MeasureBot beat EarlyBirdMimicBot in the true version of the LessWrong Darwin game?",17,"NO","Liam Donovan","Bucky O",,"https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HE7FZxmLA3QDWdvgq/the-darwin-game-conclusion","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T08:48:23.665Z","2020-11-21T21:20:13.365Z","2021-01-21T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will MeasureBot beat EarlyBirdMimicBot in the true version of the LessWrong Darwin game?",40,"NO","Liam Donovan","Bucky O",,"https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HE7FZxmLA3QDWdvgq/the-darwin-game-conclusion","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T08:48:26.661Z","2020-11-21T21:20:13.365Z","2021-01-21T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will MeasureBot beat EarlyBirdMimicBot in the true version of the LessWrong Darwin game?",20,"NO","Liam Donovan","Bucky O",,"https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HE7FZxmLA3QDWdvgq/the-darwin-game-conclusion","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-25T08:48:28.150Z","2020-11-21T21:20:13.365Z","2021-01-21T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will MeasureBot beat EarlyBirdMimicBot in the true version of the LessWrong Darwin game?",13,"NO","Bucky O","Bucky O","","https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HE7FZxmLA3QDWdvgq/the-darwin-game-conclusion","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:20:13.374Z","2020-11-21T21:20:13.365Z","2021-01-21T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will MeasureBot beat EarlyBirdMimicBot in the true version of the LessWrong Darwin game?",14,"NO","Measure","Bucky O",,"https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HE7FZxmLA3QDWdvgq/the-darwin-game-conclusion","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:37:34.257Z","2020-11-21T21:20:13.365Z","2021-01-21T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will MeasureBot beat EarlyBirdMimicBot in the true version of the LessWrong Darwin game?",20,"NO","Measure","Bucky O",,"https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HE7FZxmLA3QDWdvgq/the-darwin-game-conclusion","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T21:37:43.487Z","2020-11-21T21:20:13.365Z","2021-01-21T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will MeasureBot beat EarlyBirdMimicBot in the true version of the LessWrong Darwin game?",26,"NO","Ericf","Bucky O",,"https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HE7FZxmLA3QDWdvgq/the-darwin-game-conclusion","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T01:36:52.174Z","2020-11-21T21:20:13.365Z","2021-01-21T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will MeasureBot beat EarlyBirdMimicBot in the true version of the LessWrong Darwin game?",25,"NO","philh","Bucky O",,"https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HE7FZxmLA3QDWdvgq/the-darwin-game-conclusion","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T22:41:22.607Z","2020-11-21T21:20:13.365Z","2021-01-21T00:00:00.000Z"
"The first approved COVID19 vaccine will be Moderna's",60,,"srconstantin","srconstantin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-29T20:08:24.356Z","2020-06-29T20:08:24.351Z","2022-06-29T20:08:24.000Z"
"The first approved COVID19 vaccine will be Moderna's",30,,"Baeboo","srconstantin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-30T23:54:07.079Z","2020-06-29T20:08:24.351Z","2022-06-29T20:08:24.000Z"
"The first approved COVID19 vaccine will be Moderna's",16,,"stepan","srconstantin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-08T17:32:14.598Z","2020-06-29T20:08:24.351Z","2022-06-29T20:08:24.000Z"
"The first approved COVID19 vaccine will be Moderna's",0,,"NickN","srconstantin","Russia approved one already. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-19T02:28:42.137Z","2020-06-29T20:08:24.351Z","2022-06-29T20:08:24.000Z"
"The first approved COVID19 vaccine will be Moderna's",55,,"chemotaxis101","srconstantin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-08T09:53:19.210Z","2020-06-29T20:08:24.351Z","2022-06-29T20:08:24.000Z"
"The first approved COVID19 vaccine will be Moderna's",38,,"JoshuaZ","srconstantin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-08T13:25:46.089Z","2020-06-29T20:08:24.351Z","2022-06-29T20:08:24.000Z"
"Before 2023, Charlie Stross will write and publish a novel that features a Roko's Basilisk-like plot device",58,,"themusicgod1","halfwit",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T15:25:12.000Z","2013-06-14T02:57:58.000Z","2023-06-14T02:57:58.000Z"
"Before 2023, Charlie Stross will write and publish a novel that features a Roko's Basilisk-like plot device",35,,"JoshuaZ","halfwit",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-03T13:38:58.000Z","2013-06-14T02:57:58.000Z","2023-06-14T02:57:58.000Z"
"Before 2023, Charlie Stross will write and publish a novel that features a Roko's Basilisk-like plot device",20,,"gwern","halfwit","a decade? seems reasonable",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-01T17:12:54.000Z","2013-06-14T02:57:58.000Z","2023-06-14T02:57:58.000Z"
"Before 2023, Charlie Stross will write and publish a novel that features a Roko's Basilisk-like plot device",10,,"halfwit","halfwit",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-14T02:57:58.000Z","2013-06-14T02:57:58.000Z","2023-06-14T02:57:58.000Z"
"Before 2023, Charlie Stross will write and publish a novel that features a Roko's Basilisk-like plot device",42,,"JoshuaZ","halfwit",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T16:16:26.000Z","2013-06-14T02:57:58.000Z","2023-06-14T02:57:58.000Z"
"Before 2023, Charlie Stross will write and publish a novel that features a Roko's Basilisk-like plot device",10,,"rebellionkid","halfwit",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-05T23:54:35.000Z","2013-06-14T02:57:58.000Z","2023-06-14T02:57:58.000Z"
"Before 2023, Charlie Stross will write and publish a novel that features a Roko's Basilisk-like plot device",2,,"Ken","halfwit",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-17T17:54:49.000Z","2013-06-14T02:57:58.000Z","2023-06-14T02:57:58.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Russian citizenship.",9,,"themusicgod1","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-15T16:04:01.000Z","2016-01-06T20:35:06.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Russian citizenship.",7,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-10T04:34:30.000Z","2016-01-06T20:35:06.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Russian citizenship.",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-08T08:03:40.000Z","2016-01-06T20:35:06.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Russian citizenship.",9,,"JoshuaZ","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-07T17:11:17.000Z","2016-01-06T20:35:06.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Russian citizenship.",5,,"timujin","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-07T16:35:02.000Z","2016-01-06T20:35:06.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Russian citizenship.",8,,"PipFoweraker","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-06T20:35:06.000Z","2016-01-06T20:35:06.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"It will be revealed that there is a massive pedophile ring is operating within the United States government",1,,"Bruno Parga","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-17T21:54:38.000Z","2017-08-19T19:32:31.000Z","2025-01-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"It will be revealed that there is a massive pedophile ring is operating within the United States government",50,,"rmeador","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-02T18:53:16.000Z","2017-08-19T19:32:31.000Z","2025-01-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"It will be revealed that there is a massive pedophile ring is operating within the United States government",20,,"PlacidPlatypus","themusicgod1","How do you define ""massive""?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-01T20:51:40.000Z","2017-08-19T19:32:31.000Z","2025-01-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"It will be revealed that there is a massive pedophile ring is operating within the United States government",0,,"Bruno Parga","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T12:21:28.351Z","2017-08-19T19:32:31.000Z","2025-01-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"It will be revealed that there is a massive pedophile ring is operating within the United States government",0,,"telegrafista","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-14T16:03:51.957Z","2017-08-19T19:32:31.000Z","2025-01-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"It will be revealed that there is a massive pedophile ring is operating within the United States government",40,,"Flenser","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-08T23:53:45.000Z","2017-08-19T19:32:31.000Z","2025-01-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"It will be revealed that there is a massive pedophile ring is operating within the United States government",86,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-19T19:32:31.000Z","2017-08-19T19:32:31.000Z","2025-01-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"January 1, 2035",40,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-28T09:25:29.375Z","2020-01-23T21:49:19.355Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"January 1, 2035",25,,"mroverlord","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-30T21:02:04.303Z","2020-01-23T21:49:19.355Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"January 1, 2035",10,,"Medea","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-13T15:18:26.530Z","2020-01-23T21:49:19.355Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"January 1, 2035",15,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-23T21:49:19.358Z","2020-01-23T21:49:19.355Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"January 1, 2035",30,,"Bruno Parga","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-24T16:08:30.074Z","2020-01-23T21:49:19.355Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"January 1, 2035",25,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-05T16:11:59.766Z","2020-01-23T21:49:19.355Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"January 1, 2030",3,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-28T09:25:13.233Z","2020-01-23T21:49:19.348Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"January 1, 2030",10,,"mroverlord","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-30T21:02:20.493Z","2020-01-23T21:49:19.348Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"January 1, 2030",3,,"Medea","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-13T15:18:00.952Z","2020-01-23T21:49:19.348Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"January 1, 2030",5,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-05T16:11:56.677Z","2020-01-23T21:49:19.348Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"January 1, 2030",15,,"Bruno Parga","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-24T16:08:18.422Z","2020-01-23T21:49:19.348Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"January 1, 2030",7,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-23T21:49:19.351Z","2020-01-23T21:49:19.348Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cognitive Implants will be available for consumer use by 2040.",42,,"themusicgod1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T22:00:23.000Z","2011-11-17T02:10:31.000Z","2040-11-17T20:40:00.000Z"
"Cognitive Implants will be available for consumer use by 2040.",65,,"Isaac","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-18T03:20:51.000Z","2011-11-17T02:10:31.000Z","2040-11-17T20:40:00.000Z"
"Cognitive Implants will be available for consumer use by 2040.",57,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T02:13:54.000Z","2011-11-17T02:10:31.000Z","2040-11-17T20:40:00.000Z"
"Cognitive Implants will be available for consumer use by 2040.",40,,"lavalamp","Harbinger1","implants that do what, exactly?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T16:58:16.000Z","2011-11-17T02:10:31.000Z","2040-11-17T20:40:00.000Z"
"Cognitive Implants will be available for consumer use by 2040.",90,,"Anubhav","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T04:54:33.000Z","2011-11-17T02:10:31.000Z","2040-11-17T20:40:00.000Z"
"Cognitive Implants will be available for consumer use by 2040.",80,,"Harbinger1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T02:10:31.000Z","2011-11-17T02:10:31.000Z","2040-11-17T20:40:00.000Z"
"US will have universal health care system by 2026",66,,"pranomostro","amadeu",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-14T10:46:58.000Z","2018-11-12T23:21:28.000Z","2026-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"US will have universal health care system by 2026",30,,"NickN","amadeu",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T07:03:49.955Z","2018-11-12T23:21:28.000Z","2026-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"US will have universal health care system by 2026",48,,"Baeboo","amadeu",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T19:03:35.790Z","2018-11-12T23:21:28.000Z","2026-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"US will have universal health care system by 2026",17,,"Jennifer","amadeu","https://predictionbook.com/predictions/193675",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-09T18:57:09.586Z","2018-11-12T23:21:28.000Z","2026-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"US will have universal health care system by 2026",45,,"Elly-Immeska","amadeu",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-01T01:20:26.000Z","2018-11-12T23:21:28.000Z","2026-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"US will have universal health care system by 2026",60,,"amadeu","amadeu",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-12T23:21:28.000Z","2018-11-12T23:21:28.000Z","2026-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"US will have universal health care system by 2022",23,,"Baeboo","amadeu",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T19:03:28.524Z","2018-11-12T23:21:02.000Z","2022-12-31T23:59:00.000Z"
"US will have universal health care system by 2022",10,,"Jennifer","amadeu","Broadly: Trump won't do it. If Trump loses in 2020, Senate Republicans would block UHC. Senate Democrats probably won't have >=67 seats in 2021 to force matters.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-09T17:38:16.248Z","2018-11-12T23:21:02.000Z","2022-12-31T23:59:00.000Z"
"US will have universal health care system by 2022",10,,"NickN","amadeu",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T07:03:19.819Z","2018-11-12T23:21:02.000Z","2022-12-31T23:59:00.000Z"
"US will have universal health care system by 2022",30,,"Elly-Immeska","amadeu",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-01T01:21:50.000Z","2018-11-12T23:21:02.000Z","2022-12-31T23:59:00.000Z"
"US will have universal health care system by 2022",30,,"pranomostro","amadeu",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-14T10:47:53.000Z","2018-11-12T23:21:02.000Z","2022-12-31T23:59:00.000Z"
"US will have universal health care system by 2022",25,,"amadeu","amadeu",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-12T23:21:02.000Z","2018-11-12T23:21:02.000Z","2022-12-31T23:59:00.000Z"
"There will be an attempted assassination (including uncovered/failed assassination plots) of Donald Trump before his term ends (20 Jan 2021)",15,,"PlacidPlatypus","michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-07-28T17:34:04.000Z","2017-07-25T00:57:49.000Z","2021-01-21T10:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an attempted assassination (including uncovered/failed assassination plots) of Donald Trump before his term ends (20 Jan 2021)",60,,"two2thehead","michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com","Duplicating my prediction from: https://predictionbook.com/predictions/180203",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-07-26T13:15:06.000Z","2017-07-25T00:57:49.000Z","2021-01-21T10:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an attempted assassination (including uncovered/failed assassination plots) of Donald Trump before his term ends (20 Jan 2021)",40,,"michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com","michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-07-25T00:57:49.000Z","2017-07-25T00:57:49.000Z","2021-01-21T10:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an attempted assassination (including uncovered/failed assassination plots) of Donald Trump before his term ends (20 Jan 2021)",50,,"Baeboo","michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-03T03:52:38.000Z","2017-07-25T00:57:49.000Z","2021-01-21T10:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an attempted assassination (including uncovered/failed assassination plots) of Donald Trump before his term ends (20 Jan 2021)",58,,"Baeboo","michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-25T06:05:09.000Z","2017-07-25T00:57:49.000Z","2021-01-21T10:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an attempted assassination (including uncovered/failed assassination plots) of Donald Trump before his term ends (20 Jan 2021)",68,,"Baeboo","michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-08T08:33:28.000Z","2017-07-25T00:57:49.000Z","2021-01-21T10:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an attempted assassination (including uncovered/failed assassination plots) of Donald Trump before his term ends (20 Jan 2021)",43,,"ioannes","michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com","Now that's a prediction I can predict on!",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-07-26T17:27:21.000Z","2017-07-25T00:57:49.000Z","2021-01-21T10:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an attempted assassination (including uncovered/failed assassination plots) of Donald Trump before his term ends (20 Jan 2021)",60,,"PseudonymousUser","michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-23T02:11:36.000Z","2017-07-25T00:57:49.000Z","2021-01-21T10:00:00.000Z"
"In 2032, solar power will be at least 150% of the second highest energy source of us consumption (in kwh). ",50,,"themusicgod1","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T01:56:56.000Z","2012-07-28T01:33:16.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2032, solar power will be at least 150% of the second highest energy source of us consumption (in kwh). ",15,,"torekp","Porejide","Solar looks extremely promising but you underestimate the inertia of older tech.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-12T22:56:49.000Z","2012-07-28T01:33:16.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2032, solar power will be at least 150% of the second highest energy source of us consumption (in kwh). ",20,,"army1987","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-05T12:00:21.000Z","2012-07-28T01:33:16.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2032, solar power will be at least 150% of the second highest energy source of us consumption (in kwh). ",20,,"RandomThinker","Porejide","How do you measure consumption by cars of gasoline (in terms of kwh)?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-07-28T02:39:09.000Z","2012-07-28T01:33:16.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2032, solar power will be at least 150% of the second highest energy source of us consumption (in kwh). ",35,,"JoshuaZ","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-07-28T01:47:50.000Z","2012-07-28T01:33:16.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2032, solar power will be at least 150% of the second highest energy source of us consumption (in kwh). ",50,,"Porejide","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-07-28T01:33:16.000Z","2012-07-28T01:33:16.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The heat death of the universe",0,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","hserl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-21T09:42:46.100Z","2019-07-28T20:33:58.572Z","2100-07-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"The heat death of the universe",0,,"Baeboo","hserl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-10T18:44:28.828Z","2019-07-28T20:33:58.572Z","2100-07-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"The heat death of the universe",0,,"pranomostro","hserl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-31T18:29:36.256Z","2019-07-28T20:33:58.572Z","2100-07-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"The heat death of the universe",1,,"stepan","hserl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-10T12:30:17.054Z","2019-07-28T20:33:58.572Z","2100-07-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"The heat death of the universe",0,,"jesselevine","hserl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-01T09:10:55.504Z","2019-07-28T20:33:58.572Z","2100-07-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"The heat death of the universe",1,,"hserl","hserl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-28T20:33:58.576Z","2019-07-28T20:33:58.572Z","2100-07-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Jon Snow alive at beginning of _The Winds of Winter_",60,,"Leo","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-19T01:46:38.000Z","2013-01-19T01:46:38.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Jon Snow alive at beginning of _The Winds of Winter_",70,,"RandomThinker","Leo","How can he die?  He's like the main character!",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-20T16:01:00.000Z","2013-01-19T01:46:38.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Jon Snow alive at beginning of _The Winds of Winter_",30,,"Michael Dickens","Leo","I predict that he is dead at the beginning of TWOW but then comes back alive somehow. By ""beginning"", I mean the chronological beginning, i.e. what happens just after the end of ADWD.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-21T23:02:06.000Z","2013-01-19T01:46:38.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Jon Snow alive at beginning of _The Winds of Winter_",75,,"Osuniev","Leo","Being the main character does not prevent him dying, as GRRM has proved multiple tiñes. However, he has proved as well that he does not dismiss their value storywise (cf undead and co) John being dead now lacks of story power IMO",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-24T06:34:35.000Z","2013-01-19T01:46:38.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Jon Snow alive at beginning of _The Winds of Winter_",55,,"JoshuaZ","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-08T22:20:55.000Z","2013-01-19T01:46:38.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Jon Snow alive at beginning of _The Winds of Winter_",75,,"Medea","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-08T20:20:04.000Z","2013-01-19T01:46:38.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polar Bears will go extinct in the wild before 2025",5,,"Medea","predoindk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-15T14:38:09.735Z","2019-08-23T09:49:29.458Z","2025-08-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polar Bears will go extinct in the wild before 2025",20,,"stepan","predoindk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-10T12:26:32.988Z","2019-08-23T09:49:29.458Z","2025-08-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polar Bears will go extinct in the wild before 2025",2,,"pranomostro","predoindk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-25T18:21:53.459Z","2019-08-23T09:49:29.458Z","2025-08-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polar Bears will go extinct in the wild before 2025",5,,"predoindk","predoindk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-23T09:49:29.462Z","2019-08-23T09:49:29.458Z","2025-08-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polar Bears will go extinct in the wild before 2025",2,,"NickN","predoindk","New study says polar bears may last much longer than 2025 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/20/climate/polar-bear-extinction.html",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T06:31:23.571Z","2019-08-23T09:49:29.458Z","2025-08-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polar Bears will go extinct in the wild before 2025",6,,"credunkist","predoindk","Polar bears strike me as intelligent, adaptable animals",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-17T19:24:04.707Z","2019-08-23T09:49:29.458Z","2025-08-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Strong evidence of life on Europa in next fifty years.",4,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T15:10:00.000Z","2013-04-26T15:56:12.000Z","2063-04-26T15:56:12.000Z"
"Strong evidence of life on Europa in next fifty years.",20,,"Flipnash","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-17T00:46:02.000Z","2013-04-26T15:56:12.000Z","2063-04-26T15:56:12.000Z"
"Strong evidence of life on Europa in next fifty years.",1,,"lavalamp","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-16T20:46:29.000Z","2013-04-26T15:56:12.000Z","2063-04-26T15:56:12.000Z"
"Strong evidence of life on Europa in next fifty years.",15,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-15T17:17:09.000Z","2013-04-26T15:56:12.000Z","2063-04-26T15:56:12.000Z"
"Strong evidence of life on Europa in next fifty years.",35,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-15T17:13:19.000Z","2013-04-26T15:56:12.000Z","2063-04-26T15:56:12.000Z"
"Strong evidence of life on Europa in next fifty years.",5,,"ShIxtan","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-30T04:45:50.000Z","2013-04-26T15:56:12.000Z","2063-04-26T15:56:12.000Z"
"Strong evidence of life on Europa in next fifty years.",45,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-26T15:56:12.000Z","2013-04-26T15:56:12.000Z","2063-04-26T15:56:12.000Z"
"Holographic Television (HTV) will be a trillion dollar industry by 2025.",5,,"gwern","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-06T00:21:02.000Z","2011-11-17T01:34:40.000Z","2025-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Holographic Television (HTV) will be a trillion dollar industry by 2025.",3,,"lavalamp","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T17:04:18.000Z","2011-11-17T01:34:40.000Z","2025-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Holographic Television (HTV) will be a trillion dollar industry by 2025.",75,,"Harbinger1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T01:34:40.000Z","2011-11-17T01:34:40.000Z","2025-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Holographic Television (HTV) will be a trillion dollar industry by 2025.",0,,"deleteyourbrain","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:22:35.776Z","2011-11-17T01:34:40.000Z","2025-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Holographic Television (HTV) will be a trillion dollar industry by 2025.",4,,"pranomostro","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:21:52.305Z","2011-11-17T01:34:40.000Z","2025-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Holographic Television (HTV) will be a trillion dollar industry by 2025.",10,,"themusicgod1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T21:51:17.000Z","2011-11-17T01:34:40.000Z","2025-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Obama will come to be ranked, on average, by presidential historians within two places of 17th best president. (ref: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/23/contemplating-obamas-place-in-history-statistically/)",46,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T14:56:36.000Z","2013-01-26T02:12:52.000Z","2113-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Obama will come to be ranked, on average, by presidential historians within two places of 17th best president. (ref: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/23/contemplating-obamas-place-in-history-statistically/)",12,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight","Assume around 70 presidents and not at the very bottom or very top, and that historians are bothering to do this. So really about 60 positions and this takes up 5 of them. 5/60 =8 , and bump slightly for being probably not too far on the low end. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-19T03:34:18.000Z","2013-01-26T02:12:52.000Z","2113-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Obama will come to be ranked, on average, by presidential historians within two places of 17th best president. (ref: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/23/contemplating-obamas-place-in-history-statistically/)",45,,"lavalamp","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-19T03:17:01.000Z","2013-01-26T02:12:52.000Z","2113-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Obama will come to be ranked, on average, by presidential historians within two places of 17th best president. (ref: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/23/contemplating-obamas-place-in-history-statistically/)",35,,"RandomThinker","NathanMcKnight","In one hundred years?  We'll never see this.  How about in 2026, 10 years after end of his term?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-13T17:22:32.000Z","2013-01-26T02:12:52.000Z","2113-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Obama will come to be ranked, on average, by presidential historians within two places of 17th best president. (ref: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/23/contemplating-obamas-place-in-history-statistically/)",10,,"moridinamael","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-06T03:49:55.000Z","2013-01-26T02:12:52.000Z","2113-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Obama will come to be ranked, on average, by presidential historians within two places of 17th best president. (ref: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/23/contemplating-obamas-place-in-history-statistically/)",80,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-26T02:12:52.000Z","2013-01-26T02:12:52.000Z","2113-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I am not going to die as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change.",100,,"wizzwizz4","pranomostro","If I'm dead, this won't matter. So, conditional on me remaining alive…",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-10-28T20:18:03.493Z","2019-08-29T20:44:30.055Z","3000-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I am not going to die as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change.",100,,"WilliamKiely","pranomostro","My credence to the closest order of magnitude just using a simple base-rate forecast: 99.99%. and assuming climate change will kill 1 million/year on average over the next 80 years. In reality, I'm probably safer than average.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-04T23:53:59.047Z","2019-08-29T20:44:30.055Z","3000-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I am not going to die as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change.",95,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-31T06:28:16.413Z","2019-08-29T20:44:30.055Z","3000-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I am not going to die as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change.",99,,"wizzwizz4","pranomostro","Oh, this is about pranomostro?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-26T14:57:18.460Z","2019-08-29T20:44:30.055Z","3000-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I am not going to die as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change.",100,,"Baeboo","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-11T04:27:36.118Z","2019-08-29T20:44:30.055Z","3000-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I am not going to die as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change.",100,,"stepan","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-10T12:22:59.867Z","2019-08-29T20:44:30.055Z","3000-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I am not going to die as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change.",99,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-29T20:44:30.059Z","2019-08-29T20:44:30.055Z","3000-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140",0,,"deleteyourbrain","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:28:54.250Z","2011-11-16T14:29:20.000Z","2085-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140",55,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:30:15.638Z","2011-11-16T14:29:20.000Z","2085-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140",60,,"Anubhav","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T09:21:46.000Z","2011-11-16T14:29:20.000Z","2085-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140",5,,"Harbinger1","JoshuaZ","Mmmm.... not likely. Possibly up tp 130, but not 140.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T06:09:46.000Z","2011-11-16T14:29:20.000Z","2085-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140",60,,"gwern","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-16T21:47:15.000Z","2011-11-16T14:29:20.000Z","2085-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140",72,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-16T14:29:20.000Z","2011-11-16T14:29:20.000Z","2085-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world gross product of 2099 will not be less than the world gross product of 2020.",88,,"Baeboo","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-07T21:07:04.378Z","2019-08-29T20:45:30.549Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world gross product of 2099 will not be less than the world gross product of 2020.",90,,"synkarius","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-06T23:50:07.750Z","2019-08-29T20:45:30.549Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world gross product of 2099 will not be less than the world gross product of 2020.",78,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-29T20:45:30.553Z","2019-08-29T20:45:30.549Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world gross product of 2099 will not be less than the world gross product of 2020.",95,,"Medea","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-15T14:37:58.904Z","2019-08-29T20:45:30.549Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world gross product of 2099 will not be less than the world gross product of 2020.",99,,"stepan","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-10T12:21:59.827Z","2019-08-29T20:45:30.549Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world gross product of 2099 will not be less than the world gross product of 2020.",86,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-03T00:25:52.357Z","2019-08-29T20:45:30.549Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a continual presence on Mars of at least one person or probe either on the surface or in orbit until at least 2045",52,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T21:09:51.295Z","2011-10-31T01:10:17.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a continual presence on Mars of at least one person or probe either on the surface or in orbit until at least 2045",40,,"Jayson Virissimo","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-07T04:05:53.000Z","2011-10-31T01:10:17.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a continual presence on Mars of at least one person or probe either on the surface or in orbit until at least 2045",48,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-14T16:27:36.000Z","2011-10-31T01:10:17.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a continual presence on Mars of at least one person or probe either on the surface or in orbit until at least 2045",40,,"antsan","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-01T14:58:19.000Z","2011-10-31T01:10:17.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a continual presence on Mars of at least one person or probe either on the surface or in orbit until at least 2045",50,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:55:13.134Z","2011-10-31T01:10:17.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a continual presence on Mars of at least one person or probe either on the surface or in orbit until at least 2045",51,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-06T05:35:59.000Z","2011-10-31T01:10:17.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a continual presence on Mars of at least one person or probe either on the surface or in orbit until at least 2045",65,,"chemotaxis101","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-05T16:13:06.000Z","2011-10-31T01:10:17.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a continual presence on Mars of at least one person or probe either on the surface or in orbit until at least 2045",55,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-31T01:10:18.000Z","2011-10-31T01:10:17.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a continual presence on Mars of at least one person or probe either on the surface or in orbit until at least 2045",50,,"gwern","JoshuaZ","mm. only takes one lapse. can't we expect a dry period in 5-10 years?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-31T13:49:49.000Z","2011-10-31T01:10:17.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2034 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125.",15,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:18:27.005Z","2011-10-15T21:21:23.000Z","2034-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2034 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125.",10,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:18:30.112Z","2011-10-15T21:21:23.000Z","2034-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2034 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125.",50,,"simplicio","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-28T20:47:08.000Z","2011-10-15T21:21:23.000Z","2034-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2034 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125.",38,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Reduced confidence again. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-28T02:12:00.000Z","2011-10-15T21:21:23.000Z","2034-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2034 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125.",35,,"Malgidus","JoshuaZ","This really bets on whether the first longevity treatments are administered to the very old and they want it (I assume they do as they would be 120), but it seems like this might be a bit too late.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-27T21:09:51.000Z","2011-10-15T21:21:23.000Z","2034-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2034 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125.",45,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Reducing confidence in life extension occurring soon. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-07T16:24:42.000Z","2011-10-15T21:21:23.000Z","2034-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2034 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125.",75,,"Arenamontanus","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-18T12:25:00.000Z","2011-10-15T21:21:23.000Z","2034-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2034 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125.",20,,"gwern","JoshuaZ","my predictions may not be 100% consistent on this matter... Joshuaz registered quite a few",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-17T15:48:42.000Z","2011-10-15T21:21:23.000Z","2034-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2034 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125.",61,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-15T21:21:23.000Z","2011-10-15T21:21:23.000Z","2034-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Eduardo Saverin will un-renounce or try to regain his US citizenship sometime in his life",5,,"bobpage","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-15T21:06:29.000Z","2012-05-13T19:58:39.000Z","2072-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Eduardo Saverin will un-renounce or try to regain his US citizenship sometime in his life",34,,"JoshuaZ","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-14T22:43:25.000Z","2012-05-13T19:58:39.000Z","2072-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Eduardo Saverin will un-renounce or try to regain his US citizenship sometime in his life",20,,"Leo","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-14T21:46:05.000Z","2012-05-13T19:58:39.000Z","2072-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Eduardo Saverin will un-renounce or try to regain his US citizenship sometime in his life",10,,"Jayson Virissimo","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-14T05:20:27.000Z","2012-05-13T19:58:39.000Z","2072-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Eduardo Saverin will un-renounce or try to regain his US citizenship sometime in his life",35,,"gwern","RandomThinker","he must understand that it would be brutally hard to do this, and when you're a millionaire (billionaire?) you don't need to care what your citizenship is. has there *ever* been a successful un-renunciation?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-14T03:11:51.000Z","2012-05-13T19:58:39.000Z","2072-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Eduardo Saverin will un-renounce or try to regain his US citizenship sometime in his life",65,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-13T19:58:39.000Z","2012-05-13T19:58:39.000Z","2072-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, there will be no 28th Amendment to the Constitution of the USA",80,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-29T18:41:29.000Z","2010-07-29T18:41:29.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, there will be no 28th Amendment to the Constitution of the USA",50,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-24T17:51:53.000Z","2010-07-29T18:41:29.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, there will be no 28th Amendment to the Constitution of the USA",70,,"Grognor","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-06T19:35:44.000Z","2010-07-29T18:41:29.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, there will be no 28th Amendment to the Constitution of the USA",55,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-15T21:49:29.460Z","2010-07-29T18:41:29.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, there will be no 28th Amendment to the Constitution of the USA",80,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-16T02:02:48.447Z","2010-07-29T18:41:29.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, there will be no 28th Amendment to the Constitution of the USA",50,,"deleteyourbrain","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:16:35.630Z","2010-07-29T18:41:29.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Politics, US - Trump wins a majority of the electoral college votes before February 2021.",1,,"sty.silver","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T07:49:49.142Z","2020-11-10T06:52:59.051Z","2021-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Politics, US - Trump wins a majority of the electoral college votes before February 2021.",10,,"Baeboo","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T07:25:39.756Z","2020-11-10T06:52:59.051Z","2021-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Politics, US - Trump wins a majority of the electoral college votes before February 2021.",3,,"Liging","jbeshir","He only needs a minimum of 22k votes to flip, keep that in mind.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-15T18:25:24.630Z","2020-11-10T06:52:59.051Z","2021-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Politics, US - Trump wins a majority of the electoral college votes before February 2021.",2,,"PlacidPlatypus","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T20:59:28.163Z","2020-11-10T06:52:59.051Z","2021-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Politics, US - Trump wins a majority of the electoral college votes before February 2021.",2,,"chemotaxis101","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T11:03:54.098Z","2020-11-10T06:52:59.051Z","2021-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Politics, US - Trump wins a majority of the electoral college votes before February 2021.",2,,"jbeshir","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T06:52:59.055Z","2020-11-10T06:52:59.051Z","2021-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Both GA senate races will go Republican in January",60,,"sty.silver","seanbas",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T15:50:40.865Z","2020-11-08T14:47:08.039Z","2021-01-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Both GA senate races will go Republican in January",78,,"The_Offwo","seanbas","the far left candidate will drag the other down, and turnout in specials leans rep generally",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T11:14:08.193Z","2020-11-08T14:47:08.039Z","2021-01-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Both GA senate races will go Republican in January",84,,"Liging","seanbas","This would be a battle of who has spent more hundreds of millions ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-15T18:26:09.816Z","2020-11-08T14:47:08.039Z","2021-01-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Both GA senate races will go Republican in January",70,,"Bruno Parga","seanbas",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T14:55:06.207Z","2020-11-08T14:47:08.039Z","2021-01-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Both GA senate races will go Republican in January",65,,"chemotaxis101","seanbas",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T11:05:08.903Z","2020-11-08T14:47:08.039Z","2021-01-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Both GA senate races will go Republican in January",80,,"seanbas","seanbas",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T14:47:08.048Z","2020-11-08T14:47:08.039Z","2021-01-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"""The first true interstellar mission, targeted at the closest star to the Sun or even farther, will be launched before or on December 6, 2025 and will be widely supported by the public.""",5,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-29T18:52:30.000Z","2010-07-29T18:52:30.000Z","2025-12-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"""The first true interstellar mission, targeted at the closest star to the Sun or even farther, will be launched before or on December 6, 2025 and will be widely supported by the public.""",2,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-24T17:55:12.000Z","2010-07-29T18:52:30.000Z","2025-12-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"""The first true interstellar mission, targeted at the closest star to the Sun or even farther, will be launched before or on December 6, 2025 and will be widely supported by the public.""",3,,"themusicgod1","gwern","First projected launch would be 2036",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T23:20:56.000Z","2010-07-29T18:52:30.000Z","2025-12-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"""The first true interstellar mission, targeted at the closest star to the Sun or even farther, will be launched before or on December 6, 2025 and will be widely supported by the public.""",0,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-29T18:52:37.000Z","2010-07-29T18:52:30.000Z","2025-12-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"""The first true interstellar mission, targeted at the closest star to the Sun or even farther, will be launched before or on December 6, 2025 and will be widely supported by the public.""",5,,"gwern","gwern","oops. http://www.longbets.org/395",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-29T18:52:50.000Z","2010-07-29T18:52:30.000Z","2025-12-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"""The first true interstellar mission, targeted at the closest star to the Sun or even farther, will be launched before or on December 6, 2025 and will be widely supported by the public.""",2,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:07:07.000Z","2010-07-29T18:52:30.000Z","2025-12-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"""The first true interstellar mission, targeted at the closest star to the Sun or even farther, will be launched before or on December 6, 2025 and will be widely supported by the public.""",3,,"Athrithalix","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-22T10:35:43.000Z","2010-07-29T18:52:30.000Z","2025-12-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"""The first true interstellar mission, targeted at the closest star to the Sun or even farther, will be launched before or on December 6, 2025 and will be widely supported by the public.""",1,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-15T21:48:29.274Z","2010-07-29T18:52:30.000Z","2025-12-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"""The first true interstellar mission, targeted at the closest star to the Sun or even farther, will be launched before or on December 6, 2025 and will be widely supported by the public.""",1,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-16T02:00:13.451Z","2010-07-29T18:52:30.000Z","2025-12-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the year 2040, AI will appear on computer viruses that will communicate with each other using a universal Internet language and will be programmed to fuse together and mutate into Computer Organs that will later be controlled by powerful search engine",25,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T05:41:40.000Z","2010-07-30T05:40:58.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the year 2040, AI will appear on computer viruses that will communicate with each other using a universal Internet language and will be programmed to fuse together and mutate into Computer Organs that will later be controlled by powerful search engine",40,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T05:40:58.000Z","2010-07-30T05:40:58.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the year 2040, AI will appear on computer viruses that will communicate with each other using a universal Internet language and will be programmed to fuse together and mutate into Computer Organs that will later be controlled by powerful search engine",0,,"bobpage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-21T16:54:38.000Z","2010-07-30T05:40:58.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the year 2040, AI will appear on computer viruses that will communicate with each other using a universal Internet language and will be programmed to fuse together and mutate into Computer Organs that will later be controlled by powerful search engine",0,,"JoshuaZ","gwern","Conjunction fallacy. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-28T00:54:28.000Z","2010-07-30T05:40:58.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the year 2040, AI will appear on computer viruses that will communicate with each other using a universal Internet language and will be programmed to fuse together and mutate into Computer Organs that will later be controlled by powerful search engine",3,,"themusicgod1","gwern","computer organs...lol",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T23:29:24.000Z","2010-07-30T05:40:58.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the year 2040, AI will appear on computer viruses that will communicate with each other using a universal Internet language and will be programmed to fuse together and mutate into Computer Organs that will later be controlled by powerful search engine",1,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:09:05.000Z","2010-07-30T05:40:58.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the year 2040, AI will appear on computer viruses that will communicate with each other using a universal Internet language and will be programmed to fuse together and mutate into Computer Organs that will later be controlled by powerful search engine",1,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:23:55.057Z","2010-07-30T05:40:58.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the year 2040, AI will appear on computer viruses that will communicate with each other using a universal Internet language and will be programmed to fuse together and mutate into Computer Organs that will later be controlled by powerful search engine",1,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T19:21:46.185Z","2010-07-30T05:40:58.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the year 2040, AI will appear on computer viruses that will communicate with each other using a universal Internet language and will be programmed to fuse together and mutate into Computer Organs that will later be controlled by powerful search engine",0,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-15T03:10:27.793Z","2010-07-30T05:40:58.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2065 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ",50,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:19:06.902Z","2011-10-15T21:19:31.000Z","2065-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2065 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ",45,,"chemotaxis101","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-07-01T15:47:45.000Z","2011-10-15T21:19:31.000Z","2065-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2065 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ",8,,"saturn","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-11T06:51:13.000Z","2011-10-15T21:19:31.000Z","2065-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2065 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ",40,,"Grognor","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-08T00:53:31.000Z","2011-10-15T21:19:31.000Z","2065-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2065 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ",52,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Too optimistic. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-07T21:43:51.000Z","2011-10-15T21:19:31.000Z","2065-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2065 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ",50,,"gwern","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-17T15:34:13.000Z","2011-10-15T21:19:31.000Z","2065-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2065 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ",58,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-15T21:19:31.000Z","2011-10-15T21:19:31.000Z","2065-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2045 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130.",65,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ","Currently 103 or older.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:22:58.538Z","2011-10-15T15:54:01.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2045 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130.",15,,"gwern","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-17T15:33:59.000Z","2011-10-15T15:54:01.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2045 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130.",3,,"saturn","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-11T07:07:45.000Z","2011-10-15T15:54:01.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2045 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130.",15,,"Grognor","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-06T21:25:07.000Z","2011-10-15T15:54:01.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2045 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130.",60,,"pcm","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-20T00:37:35.000Z","2011-10-15T15:54:01.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2045 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130.",72,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-15T15:54:01.000Z","2011-10-15T15:54:01.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Downtown American cities in two hundred years will look pretty much as they do now.”",20,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T11:35:45.000Z","2010-07-30T06:16:52.000Z","2203-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Downtown American cities in two hundred years will look pretty much as they do now.”",15,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-11T01:09:03.000Z","2010-07-30T06:16:52.000Z","2203-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Downtown American cities in two hundred years will look pretty much as they do now.”",14,,"Sniffnoy","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-11T02:20:46.000Z","2010-07-30T06:16:52.000Z","2203-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Downtown American cities in two hundred years will look pretty much as they do now.”",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern","kind of ambiguous",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T23:43:08.000Z","2010-07-30T06:16:52.000Z","2203-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Downtown American cities in two hundred years will look pretty much as they do now.”",16,,"pranomostro","gwern","Agree with @themusicgod1",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:45:33.573Z","2010-07-30T06:16:52.000Z","2203-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Downtown American cities in two hundred years will look pretty much as they do now.”",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T06:16:52.000Z","2010-07-30T06:16:52.000Z","2203-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that we will be in a full fledged ice age by 2100. I predict that before that we will see volcanic activity that produces more CO2, irridium, and CH4 than mankind could imagine. We will have massive increases in snowfall and sea level first, fo",0,,"NathanMcKnight","gwern","Because 0.0001% isn't an option.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-12T19:12:47.000Z","2010-07-31T09:22:40.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that we will be in a full fledged ice age by 2100. I predict that before that we will see volcanic activity that produces more CO2, irridium, and CH4 than mankind could imagine. We will have massive increases in snowfall and sea level first, fo",0,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-13T03:56:23.000Z","2010-07-31T09:22:40.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that we will be in a full fledged ice age by 2100. I predict that before that we will see volcanic activity that produces more CO2, irridium, and CH4 than mankind could imagine. We will have massive increases in snowfall and sea level first, fo",10,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T23:56:29.000Z","2010-07-31T09:22:40.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that we will be in a full fledged ice age by 2100. I predict that before that we will see volcanic activity that produces more CO2, irridium, and CH4 than mankind could imagine. We will have massive increases in snowfall and sea level first, fo",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-31T09:22:40.000Z","2010-07-31T09:22:40.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that we will be in a full fledged ice age by 2100. I predict that before that we will see volcanic activity that produces more CO2, irridium, and CH4 than mankind could imagine. We will have massive increases in snowfall and sea level first, fo",1,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:42:56.076Z","2010-07-31T09:22:40.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that we will be in a full fledged ice age by 2100. I predict that before that we will see volcanic activity that produces more CO2, irridium, and CH4 than mankind could imagine. We will have massive increases in snowfall and sea level first, fo",0,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-15T02:52:10.879Z","2010-07-31T09:22:40.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""By 2040, less than 5% of the global population is smoking.""",40,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:29:24.064Z","2011-09-25T17:59:19.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""By 2040, less than 5% of the global population is smoking.""",36,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T20:46:51.000Z","2011-09-25T17:59:19.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""By 2040, less than 5% of the global population is smoking.""",65,,"bobpage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-26T19:01:41.000Z","2011-09-25T17:59:19.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""By 2040, less than 5% of the global population is smoking.""",25,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-25T17:59:19.000Z","2011-09-25T17:59:19.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""By 2040, less than 5% of the global population is smoking.""",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T02:57:26.000Z","2011-09-25T17:59:19.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""By 2040, less than 5% of the global population is smoking.""",30,,"Robert Kosten","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-04T20:25:19.000Z","2011-09-25T17:59:19.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""By 2040, less than 5% of the global population is smoking.""",35,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-25T18:02:02.000Z","2011-09-25T17:59:19.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, we will have seen a spate of articles (say more than 5) discussing law enforcement's concern that self-driving cars have reduced their ability to apprehend criminals, and municipalities' concern that their revenue has dropped.",55,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","coyotespike",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-10T04:58:30.000Z","2016-01-07T15:57:01.000Z","2021-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, we will have seen a spate of articles (say more than 5) discussing law enforcement's concern that self-driving cars have reduced their ability to apprehend criminals, and municipalities' concern that their revenue has dropped.",85,,"themusicgod1","coyotespike",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-10T04:52:12.000Z","2016-01-07T15:57:01.000Z","2021-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, we will have seen a spate of articles (say more than 5) discussing law enforcement's concern that self-driving cars have reduced their ability to apprehend criminals, and municipalities' concern that their revenue has dropped.",50,,"Medea","coyotespike",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-08T19:15:17.000Z","2016-01-07T15:57:01.000Z","2021-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, we will have seen a spate of articles (say more than 5) discussing law enforcement's concern that self-driving cars have reduced their ability to apprehend criminals, and municipalities' concern that their revenue has dropped.",3,,"jessriedel","coyotespike","We won't have enough self-driving cars by then.  You could consider making a version of this *conditional* on some indicator of self-driving car adoption reaching a certain threshhold.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-08T14:18:23.000Z","2016-01-07T15:57:01.000Z","2021-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, we will have seen a spate of articles (say more than 5) discussing law enforcement's concern that self-driving cars have reduced their ability to apprehend criminals, and municipalities' concern that their revenue has dropped.",55,,"JoshuaZ","coyotespike",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-07T17:09:50.000Z","2016-01-07T15:57:01.000Z","2021-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, we will have seen a spate of articles (say more than 5) discussing law enforcement's concern that self-driving cars have reduced their ability to apprehend criminals, and municipalities' concern that their revenue has dropped.",70,,"coyotespike","coyotespike",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-07T15:57:01.000Z","2016-01-07T15:57:01.000Z","2021-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"The labor force participation rate will increase above 66% at least once while Trump is on office",5,,"orionstein","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-22T16:02:52.000Z","2017-03-12T17:00:42.000Z","2025-03-12T17:00:42.000Z"
"The labor force participation rate will increase above 66% at least once while Trump is on office",5,,"tedks","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-21T23:48:07.000Z","2017-03-12T17:00:42.000Z","2025-03-12T17:00:42.000Z"
"The labor force participation rate will increase above 66% at least once while Trump is on office",49,,"themusicgod1","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-18T20:13:28.000Z","2017-03-12T17:00:42.000Z","2025-03-12T17:00:42.000Z"
"The labor force participation rate will increase above 66% at least once while Trump is on office",20,,"davidmanheim","regex","A large part of this is about number of children/retirees. Participation can't easily get that high unless kids or retirees start working. (Baby boom is retiring, will live a long time.)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-13T17:05:13.000Z","2017-03-12T17:00:42.000Z","2025-03-12T17:00:42.000Z"
"The labor force participation rate will increase above 66% at least once while Trump is on office",35,,"Alti Camelus","regex","Unemployment is becomingly increasingly driven by technological change, and I forsee this trend to be accelerating",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-13T15:44:51.000Z","2017-03-12T17:00:42.000Z","2025-03-12T17:00:42.000Z"
"The labor force participation rate will increase above 66% at least once while Trump is on office",70,,"regex","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-12T17:00:42.000Z","2017-03-12T17:00:42.000Z","2025-03-12T17:00:42.000Z"
"The labor force participation rate will increase above 66% at least once while Trump is on office",1,,"regex","regex","Read Yang's book, learned a lot about data science, and the slope of data leveled out instead of being significantly positive. I see no path for this now. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-14T06:42:48.195Z","2017-03-12T17:00:42.000Z","2025-03-12T17:00:42.000Z"
"Vipul will get married before he dies",39,,"playablecharacter","playablecharacter","i could update lower... whatever",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-20T07:50:23.000Z","2017-03-11T22:36:09.000Z","3001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Vipul will get married before he dies",40,,"Michael Dickens","playablecharacter","Priors on this are pretty high. I might make a different prediction if I knew more about Vipul, like is he asexual? Is he a hermit? (A hermit with an active internet connection, at least.) Why does he believe he's so unlikely to get married?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-13T00:03:55.000Z","2017-03-11T22:36:09.000Z","3001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Vipul will get married before he dies",33,,"Alti Camelus","playablecharacter","I guess that Vipul's estimate is likely to be on the low size because people in general are not good at estimating these things",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-12T12:29:51.000Z","2017-03-11T22:36:09.000Z","3001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Vipul will get married before he dies",25,,"Issa Rice","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-11T22:44:02.000Z","2017-03-11T22:36:09.000Z","3001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Vipul will get married before he dies",17,,"Vipul Naik","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-11T22:38:30.000Z","2017-03-11T22:36:09.000Z","3001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Vipul will get married before he dies",44,,"playablecharacter","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-11T22:36:09.000Z","2017-03-11T22:36:09.000Z","3001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Vipul will get married before he dies",20,,"InquilineKea","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-02T08:14:49.086Z","2017-03-11T22:36:09.000Z","3001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the year 2050, there will be at least 1 green autotrophic person on the Earth...”",1,,"Grognor","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-06T19:58:26.000Z","2010-08-01T13:02:04.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the year 2050, there will be at least 1 green autotrophic person on the Earth...”",29,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:05:43.000Z","2010-08-01T13:02:04.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the year 2050, there will be at least 1 green autotrophic person on the Earth...”",10,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:38:22.039Z","2010-08-01T13:02:04.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the year 2050, there will be at least 1 green autotrophic person on the Earth...”",5,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-01T13:02:04.000Z","2010-08-01T13:02:04.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the year 2050, there will be at least 1 green autotrophic person on the Earth...”",11,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-25T14:57:32.000Z","2010-08-01T13:02:04.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the year 2050, there will be at least 1 green autotrophic person on the Earth...”",1,,"bobpage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-25T21:59:03.000Z","2010-08-01T13:02:04.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will be removed from office before his term is complete.",33,,"Baeboo","sdd167",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-25T06:07:15.000Z","2017-03-09T17:32:54.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will be removed from office before his term is complete.",32,,"Baeboo","sdd167",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-17T00:07:54.000Z","2017-03-09T17:32:54.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will be removed from office before his term is complete.",90,,"Itja","sdd167",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-17T10:56:18.000Z","2017-03-09T17:32:54.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will be removed from office before his term is complete.",31,,"Baeboo","sdd167",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-16T05:18:32.000Z","2017-03-09T17:32:54.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will be removed from office before his term is complete.",16,,"Baeboo","sdd167",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-16T05:11:46.000Z","2017-03-09T17:32:54.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will be removed from office before his term is complete.",30,,"danielfilan","sdd167",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-21T01:52:33.000Z","2017-03-09T17:32:54.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will be removed from office before his term is complete.",10,,"elephantower","sdd167",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-09T22:02:22.000Z","2017-03-09T17:32:54.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will be removed from office before his term is complete.",3,,"Baeboo","sdd167",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T05:02:13.473Z","2017-03-09T17:32:54.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will be removed from office before his term is complete.",27,,"themusicgod1","sdd167",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-10T17:59:19.000Z","2017-03-09T17:32:54.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will be removed from office before his term is complete.",25,,"sdd167","sdd167",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-09T17:32:54.000Z","2017-03-09T17:32:54.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, the very first human being will be cloned and this event will be accepted by the most people.”",2,,"Grognor","gwern","the conjunction of two unlikely events makes it prima facie incredible",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-06T19:59:17.000Z","2010-08-01T13:09:20.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, the very first human being will be cloned and this event will be accepted by the most people.”",25,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-25T14:57:16.000Z","2010-08-01T13:09:20.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, the very first human being will be cloned and this event will be accepted by the most people.”",3,,"RandomThinker","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-25T21:10:36.000Z","2010-08-01T13:09:20.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, the very first human being will be cloned and this event will be accepted by the most people.”",11,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:11:22.000Z","2010-08-01T13:09:20.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, the very first human being will be cloned and this event will be accepted by the most people.”",5,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:16:24.967Z","2010-08-01T13:09:20.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, the very first human being will be cloned and this event will be accepted by the most people.”",30,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-01T13:09:20.000Z","2010-08-01T13:09:20.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"NGE: Shinji will masturbate to Asuka at some point during Rebuild",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-30T06:41:34.000Z","2011-09-07T21:16:48.000Z","2020-01-03T20:21:00.000Z"
"NGE: Shinji will masturbate to Asuka at some point during Rebuild",5,,"saturn","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-11T06:03:22.000Z","2011-09-07T21:16:48.000Z","2020-01-03T20:21:00.000Z"
"NGE: Shinji will masturbate to Asuka at some point during Rebuild",10,,"Anubhav","gwern","This Shinji doesn't seem quite so repressed. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-05T12:18:06.000Z","2011-09-07T21:16:48.000Z","2020-01-03T20:21:00.000Z"
"NGE: Shinji will masturbate to Asuka at some point during Rebuild",1,,"papermachine","gwern","Hahaha.... -_-;;;",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-08T12:56:13.000Z","2011-09-07T21:16:48.000Z","2020-01-03T20:21:00.000Z"
"NGE: Shinji will masturbate to Asuka at some point during Rebuild",99,,"papermachine","gwern","I don't think it will repeat. Anno-san must surprise us with something new!",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-07T21:20:56.000Z","2011-09-07T21:16:48.000Z","2020-01-03T20:21:00.000Z"
"NGE: Shinji will masturbate to Asuka at some point during Rebuild",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-07T21:16:48.000Z","2011-09-07T21:16:48.000Z","2020-01-03T20:21:00.000Z"
"NGE: Shinji will masturbate to Asuka at some point during Rebuild",5,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-06-26T12:06:03.773Z","2011-09-07T21:16:48.000Z","2020-01-03T20:21:00.000Z"
"Before the year 2300, there will be a Chabad on Mars.",30,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-03T21:43:09.439Z","2011-09-05T04:24:59.000Z","2300-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Before the year 2300, there will be a Chabad on Mars.",5,,"Anubhav","JoshuaZ","Oops, misunderstood what 'Chabad' means.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T08:45:06.000Z","2011-09-05T04:24:59.000Z","2300-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Before the year 2300, there will be a Chabad on Mars.",60,,"Anubhav","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T08:43:43.000Z","2011-09-05T04:24:59.000Z","2300-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Before the year 2300, there will be a Chabad on Mars.",20,,"gwern","JoshuaZ","Not sure if there will be anybody on Mars on 2300, much less a member of a particular sect. and this goes down if 'Chabad' refers to some sort of synagogue or other institution. the earth is a big place.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-05T16:50:07.000Z","2011-09-05T04:24:59.000Z","2300-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Before the year 2300, there will be a Chabad on Mars.",55,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-05T04:25:00.000Z","2011-09-05T04:24:59.000Z","2300-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Before the year 2300, there will be a Chabad on Mars.",47,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T02:32:32.000Z","2011-09-05T04:24:59.000Z","2300-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Before the year 2300, there will be a Chabad on Mars.",25,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Thought about this more. Initial estimate was way too high. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-21T14:38:30.000Z","2011-09-05T04:24:59.000Z","2300-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Before the year 2300, there will be a Chabad on Mars.",5,,"bobpage","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-06T03:15:32.000Z","2011-09-05T04:24:59.000Z","2300-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030 consensus will be that low Earth orbit is undergoing Kessler syndrome.",47,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T02:29:43.000Z","2011-09-02T16:23:22.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030 consensus will be that low Earth orbit is undergoing Kessler syndrome.",12,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-02T16:23:22.000Z","2011-09-02T16:23:22.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030 consensus will be that low Earth orbit is undergoing Kessler syndrome.",15,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-03T21:44:53.788Z","2011-09-02T16:23:22.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030 consensus will be that low Earth orbit is undergoing Kessler syndrome.",10,,"Robert Kosten","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-11T17:57:50.000Z","2011-09-02T16:23:22.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030 consensus will be that low Earth orbit is undergoing Kessler syndrome.",10,,"fergus","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-05T03:31:06.000Z","2011-09-02T16:23:22.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030 consensus will be that low Earth orbit is undergoing Kessler syndrome.",10,,"gwern","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-03T18:50:23.000Z","2011-09-02T16:23:22.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"General consensus that North Korea is behind the Sony hack attack by January 1, 2016",40,,"adbge","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-23T03:09:37.000Z","2014-12-20T21:42:18.000Z","2016-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"General consensus that North Korea is behind the Sony hack attack by January 1, 2016",55,,"RandomThinker","JoshuaZ","General consensus is probably going to stick to the main story.  If there are doubters, they'll probably be marginalized, unless someone else is caught red handed or open declares themselves the hacker",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-23T18:34:05.000Z","2014-12-20T21:42:18.000Z","2016-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"General consensus that North Korea is behind the Sony hack attack by January 1, 2016",15,,"moridinamael","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-07T18:01:43.000Z","2014-12-20T21:42:18.000Z","2016-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"General consensus that North Korea is behind the Sony hack attack by January 1, 2016",49,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-14T17:24:29.000Z","2014-12-20T21:42:18.000Z","2016-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"General consensus that North Korea is behind the Sony hack attack by January 1, 2016",55,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-20T21:42:18.000Z","2014-12-20T21:42:18.000Z","2016-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"General consensus that North Korea is behind the Sony hack attack by January 1, 2016",10,,"ack4","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-27T00:04:15.000Z","2014-12-20T21:42:18.000Z","2016-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Syriza will remain in power through 2020",20,,"amadeu","Madplatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-07T20:29:17.185Z","2015-07-12T06:00:24.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Syriza will remain in power through 2020",80,,"pranomostro","Madplatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T22:48:05.000Z","2015-07-12T06:00:24.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Syriza will remain in power through 2020",25,,"JoshuaZ","Madplatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-12T12:40:48.000Z","2015-07-12T06:00:24.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Syriza will remain in power through 2020",10,,"jbeshir","Madplatypus","This is on the basis that ""remain in power"" means the Prime Minister is from Syriza.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-12T06:08:33.000Z","2015-07-12T06:00:24.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Syriza will remain in power through 2020",10,,"jbeshir","Madplatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-12T06:05:31.000Z","2015-07-12T06:00:24.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Syriza will remain in power through 2020",30,,"quanticle","Madplatypus","2020 is a long way away and many things could happen between now and then to trigger snap elections.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-12T06:03:02.000Z","2015-07-12T06:00:24.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Syriza will remain in power through 2020",60,,"Madplatypus","Madplatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-12T06:00:24.000Z","2015-07-12T06:00:24.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that THE HUMAN KNOWLEDGE MINDMAP will become the globally dominant knowledge paradigm by the year 2100.”",36,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:29:06.000Z","2010-08-02T06:36:14.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that THE HUMAN KNOWLEDGE MINDMAP will become the globally dominant knowledge paradigm by the year 2100.”",1,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T14:09:28.680Z","2010-08-02T06:36:14.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that THE HUMAN KNOWLEDGE MINDMAP will become the globally dominant knowledge paradigm by the year 2100.”",1,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-02T06:36:14.000Z","2010-08-02T06:36:14.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that THE HUMAN KNOWLEDGE MINDMAP will become the globally dominant knowledge paradigm by the year 2100.”",0,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-24T18:07:44.000Z","2010-08-02T06:36:14.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that THE HUMAN KNOWLEDGE MINDMAP will become the globally dominant knowledge paradigm by the year 2100.”",0,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T13:40:46.000Z","2010-08-02T06:36:14.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that THE HUMAN KNOWLEDGE MINDMAP will become the globally dominant knowledge paradigm by the year 2100.”",0,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T01:55:04.000Z","2010-08-02T06:36:14.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that THE HUMAN KNOWLEDGE MINDMAP will become the globally dominant knowledge paradigm by the year 2100.”",0,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T15:03:11.770Z","2010-08-02T06:36:14.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, new astronomical observations and theories will render the Big Bang an untenable explanation for the origin of the Universe.”",4,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T01:55:53.000Z","2010-08-02T06:36:36.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, new astronomical observations and theories will render the Big Bang an untenable explanation for the origin of the Universe.”",5,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T14:08:39.733Z","2010-08-02T06:36:36.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, new astronomical observations and theories will render the Big Bang an untenable explanation for the origin of the Universe.”",1,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T15:02:59.843Z","2010-08-02T06:36:36.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, new astronomical observations and theories will render the Big Bang an untenable explanation for the origin of the Universe.”",1,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T16:52:58.811Z","2010-08-02T06:36:36.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, new astronomical observations and theories will render the Big Bang an untenable explanation for the origin of the Universe.”",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-02T06:36:36.000Z","2010-08-02T06:36:36.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, new astronomical observations and theories will render the Big Bang an untenable explanation for the origin of the Universe.”",5,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-24T17:52:59.000Z","2010-08-02T06:36:36.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, new astronomical observations and theories will render the Big Bang an untenable explanation for the origin of the Universe.”",5,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-12T14:10:33.000Z","2010-08-02T06:36:36.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, new astronomical observations and theories will render the Big Bang an untenable explanation for the origin of the Universe.”",4,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:29:25.000Z","2010-08-02T06:36:36.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, Albert Einstein's theory of relativity will be considered an untenable explanation for light and gravity by a majority of scientists.”",0,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T01:56:10.000Z","2010-08-02T06:37:24.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, Albert Einstein's theory of relativity will be considered an untenable explanation for light and gravity by a majority of scientists.”",0,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T15:00:43.377Z","2010-08-02T06:37:24.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, Albert Einstein's theory of relativity will be considered an untenable explanation for light and gravity by a majority of scientists.”",1,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T16:53:18.035Z","2010-08-02T06:37:24.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, Albert Einstein's theory of relativity will be considered an untenable explanation for light and gravity by a majority of scientists.”",0,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-02T06:37:24.000Z","2010-08-02T06:37:24.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, Albert Einstein's theory of relativity will be considered an untenable explanation for light and gravity by a majority of scientists.”",0,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-24T17:52:11.000Z","2010-08-02T06:37:24.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, Albert Einstein's theory of relativity will be considered an untenable explanation for light and gravity by a majority of scientists.”",0,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-12T14:09:49.000Z","2010-08-02T06:37:24.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, Albert Einstein's theory of relativity will be considered an untenable explanation for light and gravity by a majority of scientists.”",3,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:30:04.000Z","2010-08-02T06:37:24.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, Albert Einstein's theory of relativity will be considered an untenable explanation for light and gravity by a majority of scientists.”",1,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T14:06:32.556Z","2010-08-02T06:37:24.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The US dollar to crash, and loose 50%, or more of it's value by 2026",40,,"sdr","sdr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-14T00:50:43.000Z","2016-05-14T00:50:43.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The US dollar to crash, and loose 50%, or more of it's value by 2026",0,,"jesselevine","sdr","So much doomsday lately ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-15T14:39:15.000Z","2016-05-14T00:50:43.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The US dollar to crash, and loose 50%, or more of it's value by 2026",1,,"PlacidPlatypus","sdr","You'd have to measure against other currencies for it to make sense. If you measure against goods, 50% less value in 10 years is only fairly high inflation, not really a ""crash"".",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-19T17:09:50.000Z","2016-05-14T00:50:43.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The US dollar to crash, and loose 50%, or more of it's value by 2026",2,,"Reactionaryhistorian","sdr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-24T03:31:23.000Z","2016-05-14T00:50:43.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The US dollar to crash, and loose 50%, or more of it's value by 2026",25,,"NickN","sdr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-22T13:53:39.151Z","2016-05-14T00:50:43.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The US dollar to crash, and loose 50%, or more of it's value by 2026",20,,"splorridge","sdr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-24T13:39:14.000Z","2016-05-14T00:50:43.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, Quantum field theory will no longer be part of The Standard Model of particle physics.”",1,,"gwern","gwern","http://www.longbets.org/429",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-02T06:38:07.000Z","2010-08-02T06:38:02.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, Quantum field theory will no longer be part of The Standard Model of particle physics.”",1,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-12T14:10:44.000Z","2010-08-02T06:38:02.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, Quantum field theory will no longer be part of The Standard Model of particle physics.”",5,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T14:06:18.295Z","2010-08-02T06:38:02.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, Quantum field theory will no longer be part of The Standard Model of particle physics.”",0,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T14:56:40.435Z","2010-08-02T06:38:02.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, Quantum field theory will no longer be part of The Standard Model of particle physics.”",1,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T16:52:43.518Z","2010-08-02T06:38:02.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, Quantum field theory will no longer be part of The Standard Model of particle physics.”",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-02T06:38:02.000Z","2010-08-02T06:38:02.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, Quantum field theory will no longer be part of The Standard Model of particle physics.”",1,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-24T17:54:18.000Z","2010-08-02T06:38:02.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, Quantum field theory will no longer be part of The Standard Model of particle physics.”",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:46:55.000Z","2010-08-02T06:38:02.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, Quantum field theory will no longer be part of The Standard Model of particle physics.”",0,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T01:55:32.000Z","2010-08-02T06:38:02.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Politics, US - Trump loses the US Presidential Election in 2020, and then either delays inauguration of his successor beyond the end of January 2020 or enacts a policy/declaration they describe as intended to do so.",10,,"deoh","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-06T07:25:02.968Z","2020-06-05T06:13:16.662Z","2021-02-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"Politics, US - Trump loses the US Presidential Election in 2020, and then either delays inauguration of his successor beyond the end of January 2020 or enacts a policy/declaration they describe as intended to do so.",1,,"jbeshir","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-05T06:13:16.668Z","2020-06-05T06:13:16.662Z","2021-02-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"Politics, US - Trump loses the US Presidential Election in 2020, and then either delays inauguration of his successor beyond the end of January 2020 or enacts a policy/declaration they describe as intended to do so.",0,,"MultiplyByZer0","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T05:02:59.323Z","2020-06-05T06:13:16.662Z","2021-02-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"Politics, US - Trump loses the US Presidential Election in 2020, and then either delays inauguration of his successor beyond the end of January 2020 or enacts a policy/declaration they describe as intended to do so.",0,,"jamesrom","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T13:59:45.637Z","2020-06-05T06:13:16.662Z","2021-02-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"Politics, US - Trump loses the US Presidential Election in 2020, and then either delays inauguration of his successor beyond the end of January 2020 or enacts a policy/declaration they describe as intended to do so.",20,,"NickN","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T08:25:01.437Z","2020-06-05T06:13:16.662Z","2021-02-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"Texas will secede by 31 December 2030. ",5,,"Liging","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-18T04:39:46.343Z","2020-09-10T04:09:52.824Z","2030-12-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"Texas will secede by 31 December 2030. ",1,,"lalaithion","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-14T20:06:30.597Z","2020-09-10T04:09:52.824Z","2030-12-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"Texas will secede by 31 December 2030. ",0,,"Bruno Parga","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T12:47:13.438Z","2020-09-10T04:09:52.824Z","2030-12-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"Texas will secede by 31 December 2030. ",0,,"Baeboo","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-14T21:01:07.418Z","2020-09-10T04:09:52.824Z","2030-12-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"Texas will secede by 31 December 2030. ",80,,"najdorf","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-10T04:09:52.828Z","2020-09-10T04:09:52.824Z","2030-12-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"California earthquake before 2021 causing 10 or more deaths",4,,"bobpage","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-25T02:04:25.931Z","2020-08-25T02:04:25.926Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California earthquake before 2021 causing 10 or more deaths",1,,"chemotaxis101","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-07T19:03:20.143Z","2020-08-25T02:04:25.926Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California earthquake before 2021 causing 10 or more deaths",1,,"finback","bobpage","going off base rate: there's about one every 30 years, 4 months left before EOY, about a 1/90 chance. rounding down to 1%.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-26T18:11:23.469Z","2020-08-25T02:04:25.926Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California earthquake before 2021 causing 10 or more deaths",1,,"ayegill","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-28T12:13:24.433Z","2020-08-25T02:04:25.926Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"California earthquake before 2021 causing 10 or more deaths",5,,"FrancinePefko","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-21T16:10:14.813Z","2020-08-25T02:04:25.926Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Caplan will win his bet with Nye on Indian fertility",45,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-31T07:58:51.000Z","2012-08-30T16:39:19.000Z","2034-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Caplan will win his bet with Nye on Indian fertility",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","gwern","Fertility has been declining steadily, so that bet will come true by that date.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-20T07:40:32.000Z","2012-08-30T16:39:19.000Z","2034-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Caplan will win his bet with Nye on Indian fertility",40,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-30T16:39:19.000Z","2012-08-30T16:39:19.000Z","2034-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Caplan will win his bet with Nye on Indian fertility",54,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T12:44:16.000Z","2012-08-30T16:39:19.000Z","2034-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Caplan will win his bet with Nye on Indian fertility",80,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-10T20:50:36.545Z","2012-08-30T16:39:19.000Z","2034-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"< 35M coronavirus deaths",75,,"kjaques","kjaques",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-31T17:05:31.896Z","2020-07-31T17:05:31.892Z","2021-07-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"< 35M coronavirus deaths",99,,"Baeboo","kjaques",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-31T23:58:31.381Z","2020-07-31T17:05:31.892Z","2021-07-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"< 35M coronavirus deaths",90,,"sam_jaques","kjaques",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-01T08:33:52.676Z","2020-07-31T17:05:31.892Z","2021-07-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"< 35M coronavirus deaths",25,,"lisamitten","kjaques",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-09T22:51:54.476Z","2020-07-31T17:05:31.892Z","2021-07-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"< 35M coronavirus deaths",99,,"Bruno Parga","kjaques",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T13:00:22.253Z","2020-07-31T17:05:31.892Z","2021-07-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Barnes & Noble still exists and operates at least 10 book stores",93,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-06T05:20:16.273Z","2019-07-05T06:44:49.360Z","2022-07-05T06:44:49.000Z"
"Barnes & Noble still exists and operates at least 10 book stores",70,,"pranomostro","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-05T14:31:11.720Z","2019-07-05T06:44:49.360Z","2022-07-05T06:44:49.000Z"
"Barnes & Noble still exists and operates at least 10 book stores",50,,"Leo","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-05T06:44:49.365Z","2019-07-05T06:44:49.360Z","2022-07-05T06:44:49.000Z"
"Barnes & Noble still exists and operates at least 10 book stores",50,,"unexpectedEOF","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-05T17:30:09.558Z","2019-07-05T06:44:49.360Z","2022-07-05T06:44:49.000Z"
"Barnes & Noble still exists and operates at least 10 book stores",80,,"amadeu","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-11T13:34:54.405Z","2019-07-05T06:44:49.360Z","2022-07-05T06:44:49.000Z"
"I will not smoke a tobacco product for the next 25 years.",97,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-07T18:40:11.000Z","2012-09-07T18:40:11.000Z","2037-09-07T18:40:11.000Z"
"I will not smoke a tobacco product for the next 25 years.",60,,"drethelin","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-09T23:34:04.000Z","2012-09-07T18:40:11.000Z","2037-09-07T18:40:11.000Z"
"I will not smoke a tobacco product for the next 25 years.",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T12:58:19.000Z","2012-09-07T18:40:11.000Z","2037-09-07T18:40:11.000Z"
"I will not smoke a tobacco product for the next 25 years.",20,,"William-Quixote","gwern","If Cuba liberalizes, and you visit there, you might want to try a cigar as a touristy thing to do. 25 years is a long time.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-08T17:30:11.000Z","2012-09-07T18:40:11.000Z","2037-09-07T18:40:11.000Z"
"I will not smoke a tobacco product for the next 25 years.",95,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-09T00:00:07.470Z","2012-09-07T18:40:11.000Z","2037-09-07T18:40:11.000Z"
"Person to walk on the moon by 2030",30,,"JTPeterson","Antbak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-26T17:46:22.268Z","2019-07-08T21:16:25.175Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Person to walk on the moon by 2030",32,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Antbak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-09T01:04:02.455Z","2019-07-08T21:16:25.175Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Person to walk on the moon by 2030",65,,"credunkist","Antbak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-17T19:47:35.219Z","2019-07-08T21:16:25.175Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Person to walk on the moon by 2030",40,,"pranomostro","Antbak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-09T20:49:19.956Z","2019-07-08T21:16:25.175Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Person to walk on the moon by 2030",60,,"Antbak","Antbak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-08T21:16:25.179Z","2019-07-08T21:16:25.175Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Paul Allen will attempt to ""download"" or ""store"" his brain before he dies",25,,"gwern","RandomThinker","currently 59 years old, actuarial tables say ~22 years on average left or 2034. rich, white, educated, high-status but also lymphoma survivor. smells like conjunction bias: why *his* brain if they do anything at all? ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-22T22:19:25.000Z","2012-09-22T13:12:07.000Z","2062-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Paul Allen will attempt to ""download"" or ""store"" his brain before he dies",35,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-22T13:12:07.000Z","2012-09-22T13:12:07.000Z","2062-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Paul Allen will attempt to ""download"" or ""store"" his brain before he dies",28,,"JoshuaZ","RandomThinker","Per Gwern",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-23T19:52:44.000Z","2012-09-22T13:12:07.000Z","2062-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Paul Allen will attempt to ""download"" or ""store"" his brain before he dies",15,,"pranomostro","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:57:53.599Z","2012-09-22T13:12:07.000Z","2062-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Paul Allen will attempt to ""download"" or ""store"" his brain before he dies",46,,"themusicgod1","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:09:46.000Z","2012-09-22T13:12:07.000Z","2062-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Riemann Hypothesis will be proven before 2031",5,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","wolfish_wrath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-10-22T07:26:36.809Z","2019-07-20T16:50:59.506Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Riemann Hypothesis will be proven before 2031",10,,"Bruno Parga","wolfish_wrath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-23T02:05:59.533Z","2019-07-20T16:50:59.506Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Riemann Hypothesis will be proven before 2031",10,,"deoh","wolfish_wrath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-10-21T03:11:22.468Z","2019-07-20T16:50:59.506Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Riemann Hypothesis will be proven before 2031",25,,"pranomostro","wolfish_wrath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-21T00:05:57.668Z","2019-07-20T16:50:59.506Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Riemann Hypothesis will be proven before 2031",30,,"wolfish_wrath","wolfish_wrath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-20T16:50:59.510Z","2019-07-20T16:50:59.506Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within 10 years I will be able to buy a 3D printed object at a local mall.",99,,"quicklystarfish","learnmethis",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-27T01:47:31.000Z","2012-09-26T01:18:46.000Z","2022-09-26T01:18:46.000Z"
"Within 10 years I will be able to buy a 3D printed object at a local mall.",99,,"NathanMcKnight","learnmethis","If you live in Dubai, you already can. I bet some high-profile malls around the US have 3D printed items already...keep an eye on the designer toy botiques that are popping up everywhere. http://news.noahraford.com/?p=1495",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-28T13:52:42.000Z","2012-09-26T01:18:46.000Z","2022-09-26T01:18:46.000Z"
"Within 10 years I will be able to buy a 3D printed object at a local mall.",99,,"bsm","learnmethis",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-28T20:20:07.000Z","2012-09-26T01:18:46.000Z","2022-09-26T01:18:46.000Z"
"Within 10 years I will be able to buy a 3D printed object at a local mall.",54,,"themusicgod1","learnmethis","only question is will you notice it.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:16:25.000Z","2012-09-26T01:18:46.000Z","2022-09-26T01:18:46.000Z"
"Within 10 years I will be able to buy a 3D printed object at a local mall.",95,,"learnmethis","learnmethis",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-26T01:18:46.000Z","2012-09-26T01:18:46.000Z","2022-09-26T01:18:46.000Z"
"MDMA-mediated psychotherapy receives FDA approval in the next twenty years. ",68,,"EloiseRosen","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-04T01:36:51.000Z","2016-02-03T21:55:54.000Z","2037-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"MDMA-mediated psychotherapy receives FDA approval in the next twenty years. ",5,,"daniel74f","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-06T01:25:26.000Z","2016-02-03T21:55:54.000Z","2037-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"MDMA-mediated psychotherapy receives FDA approval in the next twenty years. ",60,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-03T21:55:54.000Z","2016-02-03T21:55:54.000Z","2037-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"MDMA-mediated psychotherapy receives FDA approval in the next twenty years. ",50,,"unexpectedEOF","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-04T01:34:52.000Z","2016-02-03T21:55:54.000Z","2037-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"MDMA-mediated psychotherapy receives FDA approval in the next twenty years. ",55,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-16T03:23:23.000Z","2016-02-03T21:55:54.000Z","2037-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one chief executive of any large fossil fuel / oil / mining company will be assassinated before 2025 due to ( perceived ) culpability.",5,,"credunkist","predoindk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-17T19:36:10.441Z","2019-08-25T07:44:53.086Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one chief executive of any large fossil fuel / oil / mining company will be assassinated before 2025 due to ( perceived ) culpability.",5,,"stepan","predoindk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-10T12:26:24.854Z","2019-08-25T07:44:53.086Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one chief executive of any large fossil fuel / oil / mining company will be assassinated before 2025 due to ( perceived ) culpability.",30,,"pranomostro","predoindk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-26T14:08:12.116Z","2019-08-25T07:44:53.086Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one chief executive of any large fossil fuel / oil / mining company will be assassinated before 2025 due to ( perceived ) culpability.",15,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","predoindk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-03T00:23:05.474Z","2019-08-25T07:44:53.086Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one chief executive of any large fossil fuel / oil / mining company will be assassinated before 2025 due to ( perceived ) culpability.",40,,"predoindk","predoindk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-25T07:44:53.090Z","2019-08-25T07:44:53.086Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one war breaks out between countries due to (perceived) inaction / exacerbation of climate change before 2030",2,,"stepan","predoindk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-10T12:26:13.346Z","2019-08-25T07:46:17.195Z","2030-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one war breaks out between countries due to (perceived) inaction / exacerbation of climate change before 2030",4,,"Baeboo","predoindk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-07T21:07:54.586Z","2019-08-25T07:46:17.195Z","2030-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one war breaks out between countries due to (perceived) inaction / exacerbation of climate change before 2030",5,,"synkarius","predoindk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-06T23:43:38.105Z","2019-08-25T07:46:17.195Z","2030-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one war breaks out between countries due to (perceived) inaction / exacerbation of climate change before 2030",10,,"pranomostro","predoindk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-26T14:08:08.135Z","2019-08-25T07:46:17.195Z","2030-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one war breaks out between countries due to (perceived) inaction / exacerbation of climate change before 2030",25,,"predoindk","predoindk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-25T07:46:17.201Z","2019-08-25T07:46:17.195Z","2030-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"The average age of death for humans in 2099 is not going to be lower than 70 years.",83,,"stepan","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-10T12:24:19.890Z","2019-08-29T20:44:58.420Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The average age of death for humans in 2099 is not going to be lower than 70 years.",88,,"Baeboo","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-15T20:51:04.144Z","2019-08-29T20:44:58.420Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The average age of death for humans in 2099 is not going to be lower than 70 years.",75,,"Medea","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-15T14:37:48.715Z","2019-08-29T20:44:58.420Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The average age of death for humans in 2099 is not going to be lower than 70 years.",65,,"synkarius","pranomostro","Climate change may affect this heavily, especially in impoverished and high population areas.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-06T23:55:52.077Z","2019-08-29T20:44:58.420Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The average age of death for humans in 2099 is not going to be lower than 70 years.",80,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-29T20:44:58.424Z","2019-08-29T20:44:58.420Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Someone will succeed at the IMO grand challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) in the next 5 years.",15,,"Baeboo","krazemon",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-19T18:49:32.602Z","2019-09-15T13:59:26.306Z","2024-09-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Someone will succeed at the IMO grand challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) in the next 5 years.",8,,"crabman","krazemon",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-15T19:31:07.677Z","2019-09-15T13:59:26.306Z","2024-09-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Someone will succeed at the IMO grand challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) in the next 5 years.",20,,"krazemon","krazemon",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-15T13:59:26.313Z","2019-09-15T13:59:26.306Z","2024-09-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Someone will succeed at the IMO grand challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) in the next 5 years.",10,,"ejh3141","krazemon",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-20T07:26:40.477Z","2019-09-15T13:59:26.306Z","2024-09-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Someone will succeed at the IMO grand challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) in the next 5 years.",10,,"pranomostro","krazemon",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-16T09:45:35.155Z","2019-09-15T13:59:26.306Z","2024-09-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Geo-engineering to cool earth will be implemented with global impact before we reduce the output of greenhouse gases to the level of 1900.",55,,"Jayson Virissimo","Tristan",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-09T18:49:08.000Z","2013-08-06T21:24:23.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Geo-engineering to cool earth will be implemented with global impact before we reduce the output of greenhouse gases to the level of 1900.",90,,"ossicones","Tristan",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-09T03:46:04.000Z","2013-08-06T21:24:23.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Geo-engineering to cool earth will be implemented with global impact before we reduce the output of greenhouse gases to the level of 1900.",80,,"mjr","Tristan",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-07T08:27:46.000Z","2013-08-06T21:24:23.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Geo-engineering to cool earth will be implemented with global impact before we reduce the output of greenhouse gases to the level of 1900.",80,,"Tristan","Tristan",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-06T21:24:23.000Z","2013-08-06T21:24:23.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Geo-engineering to cool earth will be implemented with global impact before we reduce the output of greenhouse gases to the level of 1900.",90,,"Watercressed","Tristan",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-07T04:32:00.000Z","2013-08-06T21:24:23.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on Australian public roads ",2,,"mfb","Ben Doherty","Not within that timescale",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-31T15:54:47.000Z","2013-08-26T23:41:43.000Z","2028-08-26T23:41:43.000Z"
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on Australian public roads ",0,,"mad","Ben Doherty","Maybe on one single highway, or there might be carpool-esque lanes for cars that can platoon closely. If nothing else, the nation's fleet does not replace itself in <15 years and I doubt retrofitting would be cheap.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-29T06:47:56.000Z","2013-08-26T23:41:43.000Z","2028-08-26T23:41:43.000Z"
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on Australian public roads ",20,,"Michael Dickens","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-07T22:44:57.000Z","2013-08-26T23:41:43.000Z","2028-08-26T23:41:43.000Z"
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on Australian public roads ",1,,"procran","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-27T23:12:36.000Z","2013-08-26T23:41:43.000Z","2028-08-26T23:41:43.000Z"
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on Australian public roads ",30,,"Ben Doherty","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-26T23:41:43.000Z","2013-08-26T23:41:43.000Z","2028-08-26T23:41:43.000Z"
"At least 50% of code on github will be generated by language models or their successors on January 1 2030.",70,,"amrav","amrav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-13T06:09:32.024Z","2020-06-13T06:09:32.018Z","2030-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"At least 50% of code on github will be generated by language models or their successors on January 1 2030.",30,,"Baeboo","amrav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-13T16:25:12.863Z","2020-06-13T06:09:32.018Z","2030-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"At least 50% of code on github will be generated by language models or their successors on January 1 2030.",20,,"amrav","amrav","Revising downwards after thinking about all the ways in which this could not happen because this is so specific. Eg generated code is not checked in / lives elsewhere / instructions are interpreted on the fly, or even github goes defunct.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-14T19:39:17.258Z","2020-06-13T06:09:32.018Z","2030-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"At least 50% of code on github will be generated by language models or their successors on January 1 2030.",10,,"Baeboo","amrav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-16T04:17:21.436Z","2020-06-13T06:09:32.018Z","2030-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"At least 50% of code on github will be generated by language models or their successors on January 1 2030.",5,,"wizzwizz4","amrav","Updated up for a group of people deciding to auto-generate an absurd amount of code for the lolz, down for Microsoft trashing GitHub. But I think most generated code will be templated.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-19T14:53:20.603Z","2020-06-13T06:09:32.018Z","2030-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"At least 50% of code on github will be generated by language models or their successors on January 1 2030.",1,,"MultiplyByZer0","amrav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-30T18:49:12.039Z","2020-06-13T06:09:32.018Z","2030-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"At least 50% of code on github will be generated by language models or their successors on January 1 2030.",1,,"azatris","amrav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-23T11:45:44.521Z","2020-06-13T06:09:32.018Z","2030-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"At least 50% of code on github will be generated by language models or their successors on January 1 2030.",8,,"Baeboo","amrav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-30T23:53:20.883Z","2020-06-13T06:09:32.018Z","2030-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"A neuron-level computational model of a specific human brain will be implemented successfully within 20 years (2032).",65,,"Aticper","Aticper",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-24T06:09:52.000Z","2012-10-24T06:09:52.000Z","2032-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"A neuron-level computational model of a specific human brain will be implemented successfully within 20 years (2032).",20,,"RandomThinker","Aticper","Compound predictions are hard to hit",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-24T09:53:23.000Z","2012-10-24T06:09:52.000Z","2032-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"A neuron-level computational model of a specific human brain will be implemented successfully within 20 years (2032).",55,,"museveni","Aticper",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-28T05:05:30.000Z","2012-10-24T06:09:52.000Z","2032-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"A neuron-level computational model of a specific human brain will be implemented successfully within 20 years (2032).",96,,"themusicgod1","Aticper",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T14:02:37.000Z","2012-10-24T06:09:52.000Z","2032-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"A neuron-level computational model of a specific human brain will be implemented successfully within 20 years (2032).",21,,"JoshuaZ","Aticper",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-25T03:55:57.000Z","2012-10-24T06:09:52.000Z","2032-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"When and if a hyperloop-like transit system is built (or not), the US will not be the first country to build it.",37,,"themusicgod1","Malcolm Ocean",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-05T10:51:33.000Z","2013-08-15T20:43:44.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"When and if a hyperloop-like transit system is built (or not), the US will not be the first country to build it.",70,,"mfb","Malcolm Ocean",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-20T18:58:43.000Z","2013-08-15T20:43:44.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"When and if a hyperloop-like transit system is built (or not), the US will not be the first country to build it.",70,,"JoshuaFox","Malcolm Ocean",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-27T14:53:13.000Z","2013-08-15T20:43:44.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"When and if a hyperloop-like transit system is built (or not), the US will not be the first country to build it.",40,,"Flipnash","Malcolm Ocean",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-20T20:03:13.000Z","2013-08-15T20:43:44.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"When and if a hyperloop-like transit system is built (or not), the US will not be the first country to build it.",75,,"Malcolm Ocean","Malcolm Ocean",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-15T20:43:44.000Z","2013-08-15T20:43:44.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Some vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 will have successfully passed phase 3 trials by the 15th of October 2020.",28,,"JoshuaZ","Mathieu_Putz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-19T15:54:42.499Z","2020-05-28T15:05:50.722Z","2020-10-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Some vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 will have successfully passed phase 3 trials by the 15th of October 2020.",0,,"NickN","Mathieu_Putz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-15T23:47:36.067Z","2020-05-28T15:05:50.722Z","2020-10-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Some vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 will have successfully passed phase 3 trials by the 15th of October 2020.",45,,"Mathieu_Putz","Mathieu_Putz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-28T15:05:50.727Z","2020-05-28T15:05:50.722Z","2020-10-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Some vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 will have successfully passed phase 3 trials by the 15th of October 2020.",20,,"Leo","Mathieu_Putz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-03T09:29:23.771Z","2020-05-28T15:05:50.722Z","2020-10-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Some vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 will have successfully passed phase 3 trials by the 15th of October 2020.",25,,"Mathieu_Putz","Mathieu_Putz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-04T20:00:16.058Z","2020-05-28T15:05:50.722Z","2020-10-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Some vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 will have successfully passed phase 3 trials by the 15th of October 2020.",10,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Mathieu_Putz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-18T08:00:56.344Z","2020-05-28T15:05:50.722Z","2020-10-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"A simulated human mind with super intelligence will not happen before 2034",90,,"qznc","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-25T19:35:25.592Z","2020-05-25T19:35:25.588Z","2034-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"A simulated human mind with super intelligence will not happen before 2034",100,,"deoh","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-06T07:29:02.398Z","2020-05-25T19:35:25.588Z","2034-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"A simulated human mind with super intelligence will not happen before 2034",100,,"wizzwizz4","qznc","This requires uploading (⇒? nanotech) & sufficiently-powerful physics simulation (/ optimised lossy brain simulation, like bsnes), + prbbly the ability for cognitive enhancement hacks. With ᴄꜰ concerted intl. effort, 2050'd be unlikely. ∴ 99.99%",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T18:25:05.185Z","2020-05-25T19:35:25.588Z","2034-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"A simulated human mind with super intelligence will not happen before 2034",70,,"Paul.David.Carr","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-01T02:41:21.793Z","2020-05-25T19:35:25.588Z","2034-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"A simulated human mind with super intelligence will not happen before 2034",100,,"MultiplyByZer0","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T05:06:04.631Z","2020-05-25T19:35:25.588Z","2034-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"Bitcoin price ends year below $7,500",40,,"Baeboo","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-16T19:31:16.088Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.738Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Bitcoin price ends year below $7,500",73,,"Baeboo","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-21T03:41:06.110Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.738Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Bitcoin price ends year below $7,500",55,,"pranomostro","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-11T15:54:30.419Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.738Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Bitcoin price ends year below $7,500",50,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-02T22:45:45.741Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.738Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Bitcoin price ends year below $7,500",2,,"Baeboo","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T06:58:34.473Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.738Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Bitcoin price ends year below $7,500",36,,"Baeboo","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-03T03:00:06.707Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.738Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Bitcoin price ends year below $7,500",43,,"Baeboo","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-27T05:10:25.148Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.738Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Bitcoin price ends year below $7,500",38,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-17T08:27:30.560Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.738Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Bitcoin price ends year below $7,500",60,,"Baeboo","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-16T01:41:07.688Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.738Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Bitcoin price ends year below $7,500",40,,"peter_hurford","Bruno Parga","I revised this down to 40% (from 45%) after reconsidering a bit more, but my reasoning is unchanged.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-15T23:57:22.852Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.738Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Bitcoin price ends year below $7,500",45,,"peter_hurford","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-15T16:27:29.300Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.738Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Oil will account for a lower raw amount of energy consumption in 2030 than in 2020",60,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-04T17:05:11.000Z","2015-08-04T17:05:11.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Oil will account for a lower raw amount of energy consumption in 2030 than in 2020",65,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-04T18:27:19.000Z","2015-08-04T17:05:11.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Oil will account for a lower raw amount of energy consumption in 2030 than in 2020",70,,"timujin","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-05T12:53:57.000Z","2015-08-04T17:05:11.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Oil will account for a lower raw amount of energy consumption in 2030 than in 2020",58,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T20:10:38.821Z","2015-08-04T17:05:11.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Oil will account for a lower raw amount of energy consumption in 2030 than in 2020",60,,"btrettel","InquilineKea","http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/ This forecast suggests there's a slight decreasing trend. See figure 18.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-04T17:58:21.000Z","2015-08-04T17:05:11.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Oil will account for a lower raw amount of energy consumption in 2030 than in 2020",70,,"HonoreDB","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-04T18:43:54.000Z","2015-08-04T17:05:11.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There'll be less gridlock in Obama's second term vs. the first term (measured by total number of filibusters)",65,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-07T18:22:03.000Z","2012-11-07T18:22:03.000Z","2016-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"There'll be less gridlock in Obama's second term vs. the first term (measured by total number of filibusters)",45,,"chemotaxis101","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-08T09:38:30.000Z","2012-11-07T18:22:03.000Z","2016-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"There'll be less gridlock in Obama's second term vs. the first term (measured by total number of filibusters)",60,,"alecbrooks","RandomThinker","I think Obama will feel less pressured to attempt legislation that will get a filibuster. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-10T20:02:44.000Z","2012-11-07T18:22:03.000Z","2016-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"There'll be less gridlock in Obama's second term vs. the first term (measured by total number of filibusters)",47,,"themusicgod1","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-14T19:13:34.000Z","2012-11-07T18:22:03.000Z","2016-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"There'll be less gridlock in Obama's second term vs. the first term (measured by total number of filibusters)",51,,"JoshuaZ","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-08T00:41:13.000Z","2012-11-07T18:22:03.000Z","2016-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, AI can reliably beat the top human players in Starcraft.",40,,"Timothy","Daniel Kokotajlo","Predictor note: 509",,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, AI can reliably beat the top human players in Starcraft.",35,,"Rick","Daniel Kokotajlo",,,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-10T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, AI can reliably beat the top human players in Starcraft.",85,,"Oliver H","Daniel Kokotajlo","",,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T02:17:03.711Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, AI can reliably beat the top human players in Starcraft.",80,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, AI can reliably beat the top human players in Starcraft.",80,,"girish","Daniel Kokotajlo","",,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-08T06:02:52.556Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Modafinil to be more popular in US in 2025 than 2015",57,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-22T04:12:51.000Z","2015-07-13T11:10:18.000Z","2026-01-16T23:00:00.000Z"
"Modafinil to be more popular in US in 2025 than 2015",75,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-27T22:15:27.000Z","2015-07-13T11:10:18.000Z","2026-01-16T23:00:00.000Z"
"Modafinil to be more popular in US in 2025 than 2015",60,,"RoryS","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-14T20:43:57.000Z","2015-07-13T11:10:18.000Z","2026-01-16T23:00:00.000Z"
"Modafinil to be more popular in US in 2025 than 2015",70,,"EloiseRosen","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-14T01:22:30.000Z","2015-07-13T11:10:18.000Z","2026-01-16T23:00:00.000Z"
"Modafinil to be more popular in US in 2025 than 2015",75,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T11:10:18.000Z","2015-07-13T11:10:18.000Z","2026-01-16T23:00:00.000Z"
"War won't happen between China and Usa before June 2030",75,,"RandomThinker","randomlurker13",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-25T15:26:17.000Z","2012-11-25T07:28:42.000Z","2030-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"War won't happen between China and Usa before June 2030",0,,"Malgidus","randomlurker13","Need to define war.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-27T22:31:14.000Z","2012-11-25T07:28:42.000Z","2030-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"War won't happen between China and Usa before June 2030",80,,"seifip","randomlurker13",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-14T09:57:24.000Z","2012-11-25T07:28:42.000Z","2030-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"War won't happen between China and Usa before June 2030",87,,"randomlurker13","randomlurker13",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-25T07:28:42.000Z","2012-11-25T07:28:42.000Z","2030-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"War won't happen between China and Usa before June 2030",90,,"themusicgod1","randomlurker13",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T14:34:53.000Z","2012-11-25T07:28:42.000Z","2030-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will within 20 years have a view of Less Wrong and its associated community as having ran into essentially the same failings that the Objectivists ran into. ",20,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ","Unclear resolution criteria, but anyway.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T22:52:43.604Z","2013-07-09T06:03:42.000Z","2033-07-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will within 20 years have a view of Less Wrong and its associated community as having ran into essentially the same failings that the Objectivists ran into. ",20,,"Jayson Virissimo","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-14T07:45:15.000Z","2013-07-09T06:03:42.000Z","2033-07-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will within 20 years have a view of Less Wrong and its associated community as having ran into essentially the same failings that the Objectivists ran into. ",25,,"gwern","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-13T01:13:39.000Z","2013-07-09T06:03:42.000Z","2033-07-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will within 20 years have a view of Less Wrong and its associated community as having ran into essentially the same failings that the Objectivists ran into. ",15,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-09T06:03:42.000Z","2013-07-09T06:03:42.000Z","2033-07-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will within 20 years have a view of Less Wrong and its associated community as having ran into essentially the same failings that the Objectivists ran into. ",33,,"saturn","JoshuaZ","Average of JoshuaZ's estimate and 50%",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-13T23:13:43.000Z","2013-07-09T06:03:42.000Z","2033-07-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"As of the end of 2030, nobody lives on less than the international poverty line.",2,,"pranomostro","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-11T16:36:41.611Z","2020-01-03T20:00:08.611Z","2030-06-30T04:00:00.000Z"
"As of the end of 2030, nobody lives on less than the international poverty line.",0,,"sortega","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-11T10:36:59.325Z","2020-01-03T20:00:08.611Z","2030-06-30T04:00:00.000Z"
"As of the end of 2030, nobody lives on less than the international poverty line.",5,,"skaye","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-04T17:17:16.314Z","2020-01-03T20:00:08.611Z","2030-06-30T04:00:00.000Z"
"As of the end of 2030, nobody lives on less than the international poverty line.",8,,"optimaton","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-04T09:29:48.828Z","2020-01-03T20:00:08.611Z","2030-06-30T04:00:00.000Z"
"As of the end of 2030, nobody lives on less than the international poverty line.",1,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-03T20:00:08.616Z","2020-01-03T20:00:08.611Z","2030-06-30T04:00:00.000Z"
"Martian ""dark sand cascades"" are found to be evidence of microbial activity. ",50,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-25T17:36:06.000Z","2012-11-25T17:36:06.000Z","2062-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Martian ""dark sand cascades"" are found to be evidence of microbial activity. ",11,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-25T19:35:19.000Z","2012-11-25T17:36:06.000Z","2062-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Martian ""dark sand cascades"" are found to be evidence of microbial activity. ",5,,"Qiaochu","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-26T09:38:22.000Z","2012-11-25T17:36:06.000Z","2062-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Martian ""dark sand cascades"" are found to be evidence of microbial activity. ",10,,"ChristianKl","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-12-04T12:08:08.000Z","2012-11-25T17:36:06.000Z","2062-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Martian ""dark sand cascades"" are found to be evidence of microbial activity. ",5,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T14:35:07.000Z","2012-11-25T17:36:06.000Z","2062-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will TechCrunch report a startup raising $100M or more on Sat 11/21?",50,,"William S","Amanda N","","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the articles on this page at 9am on Sun 11/22: https://techcrunch.com/startups/","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:19:31.202Z","2020-11-13T17:04:49.450Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will TechCrunch report a startup raising $100M or more on Sat 11/21?",10,,"Amanda N","Amanda N","Nov 12: 1 > 100M
Nov 11: 1 > 100M
Nov 10: 3 > 100M
Nov 9: 1 > 100M
Nov 8: 0
Nov 7: 0
Nov 6: 1 > 100M

Looks like on the weekdays there's at least one, on weekends less so. Not actually sure that they report on weekends","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the articles on this page at 9am on Sun 11/22: https://techcrunch.com/startups/","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:34:43.233Z","2020-11-13T17:04:49.450Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will TechCrunch report a startup raising $100M or more on Sat 11/21?",50,,"Ethan Perez","Amanda N","","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the articles on this page at 9am on Sun 11/22: https://techcrunch.com/startups/","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:45:37.432Z","2020-11-13T17:04:49.450Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will TechCrunch report a startup raising $100M or more on Sat 11/21?",85,,"William S","Amanda N","Seems like 7 articles like this have come out in the last week","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the articles on this page at 9am on Sun 11/22: https://techcrunch.com/startups/","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:45:52.036Z","2020-11-13T17:04:49.450Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will TechCrunch report a startup raising $100M or more on Sat 11/21?",15,,"Ben L","Amanda N","","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the articles on this page at 9am on Sun 11/22: https://techcrunch.com/startups/","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:55:24.083Z","2020-11-13T17:04:49.450Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will TechCrunch report a startup raising $100M or more on Sat 11/21?",10,,"William S","Amanda N","Not likely on sunday","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the articles on this page at 9am on Sun 11/22: https://techcrunch.com/startups/","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:55:52.885Z","2020-11-13T17:04:49.450Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will TechCrunch report a startup raising $100M or more on Sat 11/21?",20,,"Abigail T","Amanda N","They do report on weekends (but less)","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to the articles on this page at 9am on Sun 11/22: https://techcrunch.com/startups/","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-16T02:46:26.840Z","2020-11-13T17:04:49.450Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"OoTS: MitD is the Snarl.",49,,"themusicgod1","ygert",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-07-20T11:39:25.000Z","2013-06-30T15:27:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"OoTS: MitD is the Snarl.",6,,"JoshuaZ","ygert",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-27T21:21:12.000Z","2013-06-30T15:27:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"OoTS: MitD is the Snarl.",2,,"Sniffnoy","ygert",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-29T05:10:01.000Z","2013-06-30T15:27:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"OoTS: MitD is the Snarl.",5,,"JoshuaZ","ygert",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-10T21:07:16.000Z","2013-06-30T15:27:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"OoTS: MitD is the Snarl.",30,,"Tegid","ygert",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-03T11:45:44.000Z","2013-06-30T15:27:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"OoTS: MitD is the Snarl.",5,,"ygert","ygert",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-26T08:20:56.000Z","2013-06-30T15:27:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"OoTS: MitD is the Snarl.",6,,"JoshuaZ","ygert","Need to extend deadline again. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-01T14:53:35.000Z","2013-06-30T15:27:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"OoTS: MitD is the Snarl.",50,,"ygert","ygert",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-30T15:27:56.000Z","2013-06-30T15:27:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"OoTS: MitD is the Snarl.",3,,"JoshuaZ","ygert",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T18:22:10.378Z","2013-06-30T15:27:56.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"World of Warcraft will be shut dow before 2023",45,,"JoshuaZ","silacoid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-05T15:17:27.000Z","2015-08-05T13:00:08.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"World of Warcraft will be shut dow before 2023",30,,"InquilineKea","silacoid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-06T02:19:26.000Z","2015-08-05T13:00:08.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"World of Warcraft will be shut dow before 2023",2,,"drakino","silacoid","EQ is approaching it's 20th birthday, I'm sure WoW can also hit that same milestone in 2025.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-06T17:44:05.000Z","2015-08-05T13:00:08.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"World of Warcraft will be shut dow before 2023",70,,"timujin","silacoid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-13T07:21:21.000Z","2015-08-05T13:00:08.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"World of Warcraft will be shut dow before 2023",80,,"silacoid","silacoid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-05T13:00:08.000Z","2015-08-05T13:00:08.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Browsers will replace Javascript with a VM as an standard way to run code.",75,,"Afforess","wslh",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-25T01:34:12.000Z","2013-05-28T04:19:14.000Z","2023-05-28T04:19:13.000Z"
"Browsers will replace Javascript with a VM as an standard way to run code.",75,,"quanticle","wslh","WebAssembly is coming.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-25T01:32:10.000Z","2013-05-28T04:19:14.000Z","2023-05-28T04:19:13.000Z"
"Browsers will replace Javascript with a VM as an standard way to run code.",15,,"a0c4a123f7","wslh","I'd have expected a bytecode style solution letting any language be used to be an HTML 5 thing if done at all",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-10T13:25:11.000Z","2013-05-28T04:19:14.000Z","2023-05-28T04:19:13.000Z"
"Browsers will replace Javascript with a VM as an standard way to run code.",40,,"quanticle","wslh","It looks like the Webassembly standard is gaining adherents. I think it's more possible that browsers will replace their current JS runtimes with something that runs JS on a webassembly VM.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-02T16:37:56.000Z","2013-05-28T04:19:14.000Z","2023-05-28T04:19:13.000Z"
"Browsers will replace Javascript with a VM as an standard way to run code.",25,,"quanticle","wslh","It's possible, but I don't think it's very likely. Mozilla's asm.js is already down to .5x native speed, and it seems like there's still more progress there.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-03T07:58:51.000Z","2013-05-28T04:19:14.000Z","2023-05-28T04:19:13.000Z"
"Browsers will replace Javascript with a VM as an standard way to run code.",50,,"procran","wslh",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-02T13:20:58.000Z","2013-05-28T04:19:14.000Z","2023-05-28T04:19:13.000Z"
"Browsers will replace Javascript with a VM as an standard way to run code.",100,,"wslh","wslh",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-28T04:19:14.000Z","2013-05-28T04:19:14.000Z","2023-05-28T04:19:13.000Z"
"By 2050, a professional league would have raised the height of the rims in basketball above 10 feet.",35,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-21T12:04:51.000Z","2013-05-21T12:04:50.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050, a professional league would have raised the height of the rims in basketball above 10 feet.",37,,"pranomostro","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:00:03.072Z","2013-05-21T12:04:50.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050, a professional league would have raised the height of the rims in basketball above 10 feet.",25,,"halfwit","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-12T05:07:38.000Z","2013-05-21T12:04:50.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050, a professional league would have raised the height of the rims in basketball above 10 feet.",55,,"gwern","RandomThinker","but as basketball scouts search larger populations and more populations get better nutrition, players will get taller on average and dunking will become too easy...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-02T21:02:26.000Z","2013-05-21T12:04:50.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050, a professional league would have raised the height of the rims in basketball above 10 feet.",45,,"JoshuaZ","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-21T15:02:57.000Z","2013-05-21T12:04:50.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditioned on his political affiliation being outed before the year 2024, Mark Zuckerberg will be outed as a Republican",50,,"procran","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-19T23:18:14.000Z","2013-05-09T03:39:54.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditioned on his political affiliation being outed before the year 2024, Mark Zuckerberg will be outed as a Republican",75,,"Samm","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-09T04:12:36.000Z","2013-05-09T03:39:54.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditioned on his political affiliation being outed before the year 2024, Mark Zuckerberg will be outed as a Republican",65,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-09T03:39:54.000Z","2013-05-09T03:39:54.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditioned on his political affiliation being outed before the year 2024, Mark Zuckerberg will be outed as a Republican",49,,"themusicgod1","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-04-30T22:59:38.000Z","2013-05-09T03:39:54.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditioned on his political affiliation being outed before the year 2024, Mark Zuckerberg will be outed as a Republican",60,,"Ken","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-17T19:44:52.000Z","2013-05-09T03:39:54.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"As of when this prediction was made, the US government routinely saves a recording of a majority of domestic phone calls and emails, as per www.overcomingbias.com/2013/05/us-record-all-calls.html.",70,,"hedges","ygert",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-12T12:23:13.000Z","2013-05-08T16:26:54.000Z","2033-05-08T12:00:00.000Z"
"As of when this prediction was made, the US government routinely saves a recording of a majority of domestic phone calls and emails, as per www.overcomingbias.com/2013/05/us-record-all-calls.html.",90,,"hedges","ygert","Even Sweden does this. For ALL internet traffic there. See: FRA law. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-09T15:38:15.000Z","2013-05-08T16:26:54.000Z","2033-05-08T12:00:00.000Z"
"As of when this prediction was made, the US government routinely saves a recording of a majority of domestic phone calls and emails, as per www.overcomingbias.com/2013/05/us-record-all-calls.html.",25,,"RandomThinker","ygert","I doubt they archive it, maybe they scan it and store it for a little while.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-09T10:45:55.000Z","2013-05-08T16:26:54.000Z","2033-05-08T12:00:00.000Z"
"As of when this prediction was made, the US government routinely saves a recording of a majority of domestic phone calls and emails, as per www.overcomingbias.com/2013/05/us-record-all-calls.html.",30,,"dhoe","ygert","Half an hour per 300 million people at 500kB/minute gives me 4 petabyte per day. Divide by 2 (takes two to talk) and by 2 again (to have a majority), that's a petabyte a day. Not impossible but not really practical either it seems to me. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-08T19:21:23.000Z","2013-05-08T16:26:54.000Z","2033-05-08T12:00:00.000Z"
"As of when this prediction was made, the US government routinely saves a recording of a majority of domestic phone calls and emails, as per www.overcomingbias.com/2013/05/us-record-all-calls.html.",10,,"ygert","ygert","If this were the case, it would be unlikely that Snowden would blow the whistle on the metadata gathering and not say a word about this. Perhaps he had only partial information and didn't know about this, but the odds are way down.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-11T02:23:06.000Z","2013-05-08T16:26:54.000Z","2033-05-08T12:00:00.000Z"
"As of when this prediction was made, the US government routinely saves a recording of a majority of domestic phone calls and emails, as per www.overcomingbias.com/2013/05/us-record-all-calls.html.",20,,"Patrick Brinich-Langlois","ygert",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-07T07:54:13.000Z","2013-05-08T16:26:54.000Z","2033-05-08T12:00:00.000Z"
"As of when this prediction was made, the US government routinely saves a recording of a majority of domestic phone calls and emails, as per www.overcomingbias.com/2013/05/us-record-all-calls.html.",55,,"RandomThinker","ygert","ok changed my mind.  read this: http://www.businessinsider.com/greenwald-are-all-telephone-calls-recorded-and-accessible-to-the-us-government-2013-5",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-05T01:51:43.000Z","2013-05-08T16:26:54.000Z","2033-05-08T12:00:00.000Z"
"As of when this prediction was made, the US government routinely saves a recording of a majority of domestic phone calls and emails, as per www.overcomingbias.com/2013/05/us-record-all-calls.html.",60,,"ygert","ygert",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-08T16:26:54.000Z","2013-05-08T16:26:54.000Z","2033-05-08T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on civilization not collapsing, emulations will be developed sometime between 25 and 150 years from now. -- Robin Hanson",68,,"JoshuaZ","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-08-15T23:40:07.000Z","2013-05-06T17:59:49.000Z","2162-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on civilization not collapsing, emulations will be developed sometime between 25 and 150 years from now. -- Robin Hanson",75,,"Tuxedage","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-08T02:04:45.000Z","2013-05-06T17:59:49.000Z","2162-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on civilization not collapsing, emulations will be developed sometime between 25 and 150 years from now. -- Robin Hanson",85,,"Baeboo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-08-14T21:52:38.000Z","2013-05-06T17:59:49.000Z","2162-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on civilization not collapsing, emulations will be developed sometime between 25 and 150 years from now. -- Robin Hanson",80,,"Ken","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-17T19:58:07.000Z","2013-05-06T17:59:49.000Z","2162-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on civilization not collapsing, emulations will be developed sometime between 25 and 150 years from now. -- Robin Hanson",65,,"JoshuaZ","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-06T19:05:10.000Z","2013-05-06T17:59:49.000Z","2162-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on civilization not collapsing, emulations will be developed sometime between 25 and 150 years from now. -- Robin Hanson",80,,"Pablo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-06T17:59:49.000Z","2013-05-06T17:59:49.000Z","2162-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Titan has two semi-connected biospheres, one on the surface, and one under the ice crust. ",29,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T15:08:25.000Z","2013-04-23T16:34:53.000Z","2113-04-23T16:34:53.000Z"
"Titan has two semi-connected biospheres, one on the surface, and one under the ice crust. ",1,,"itaibn","NathanMcKnight","I don't think with my current calibration knowledge I am entitled to my previously stated estimate.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-22T21:59:30.000Z","2013-04-23T16:34:53.000Z","2113-04-23T16:34:53.000Z"
"Titan has two semi-connected biospheres, one on the surface, and one under the ice crust. ",0,,"itaibn","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-17T18:03:41.000Z","2013-04-23T16:34:53.000Z","2113-04-23T16:34:53.000Z"
"Titan has two semi-connected biospheres, one on the surface, and one under the ice crust. ",1,,"Samm","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-09T04:51:57.000Z","2013-04-23T16:34:53.000Z","2113-04-23T16:34:53.000Z"
"Titan has two semi-connected biospheres, one on the surface, and one under the ice crust. ",1,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-23T23:45:27.000Z","2013-04-23T16:34:53.000Z","2113-04-23T16:34:53.000Z"
"Titan has two semi-connected biospheres, one on the surface, and one under the ice crust. ",10,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-23T16:34:53.000Z","2013-04-23T16:34:53.000Z","2113-04-23T16:34:53.000Z"
"Western Australia will secede from the Commonwealth of Australia by the end of 2025.",1,,"najdorf","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-06T23:28:43.000Z","2013-02-06T23:28:43.000Z","2025-12-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"Western Australia will secede from the Commonwealth of Australia by the end of 2025.",1,,"Emanuel Rylke","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-10T18:08:18.000Z","2013-02-06T23:28:43.000Z","2025-12-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"Western Australia will secede from the Commonwealth of Australia by the end of 2025.",3,,"dusk","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-10T09:59:39.000Z","2013-02-06T23:28:43.000Z","2025-12-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"Western Australia will secede from the Commonwealth of Australia by the end of 2025.",1,,"procran","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-10T20:15:58.000Z","2013-02-06T23:28:43.000Z","2025-12-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"Western Australia will secede from the Commonwealth of Australia by the end of 2025.",0,,"Tuxedage","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-07T01:34:35.000Z","2013-02-06T23:28:43.000Z","2025-12-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"Cultured meat will free 25% of land used for ranching in North America by 2035.",46,,"themusicgod1","Malgidus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T15:05:11.000Z","2013-03-27T21:21:21.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cultured meat will free 25% of land used for ranching in North America by 2035.",10,,"simplicio","Malgidus","Hard to verify causal connection.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-28T20:43:24.000Z","2013-03-27T21:21:21.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cultured meat will free 25% of land used for ranching in North America by 2035.",25,,"JoshuaZ","Malgidus","Not going to happen that fast I suspect. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-28T02:11:08.000Z","2013-03-27T21:21:21.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cultured meat will free 25% of land used for ranching in North America by 2035.",10,,"ChristianKl","Malgidus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-29T15:53:58.000Z","2013-03-27T21:21:21.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cultured meat will free 25% of land used for ranching in North America by 2035.",60,,"Malgidus","Malgidus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-27T21:21:21.000Z","2013-03-27T21:21:21.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2027(latest possible date) the EU and Ukraine will recognize the liberation of Crimea as an indivisible part of Rossiya(Россия). ",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-07T00:39:47.000Z","2015-10-07T00:39:47.000Z","2027-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2027(latest possible date) the EU and Ukraine will recognize the liberation of Crimea as an indivisible part of Rossiya(Россия). ",55,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-07T01:51:59.000Z","2015-10-07T00:39:47.000Z","2027-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2027(latest possible date) the EU and Ukraine will recognize the liberation of Crimea as an indivisible part of Rossiya(Россия). ",50,,"btrettel","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-09T02:42:29.000Z","2015-10-07T00:39:47.000Z","2027-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2027(latest possible date) the EU and Ukraine will recognize the liberation of Crimea as an indivisible part of Rossiya(Россия). ",45,,"Josh Holland","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-07T09:06:28.000Z","2015-10-07T00:39:47.000Z","2027-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 2027(latest possible date) the EU and Ukraine will recognize the liberation of Crimea as an indivisible part of Rossiya(Россия). ",35,,"daniel74f","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-07T17:41:37.000Z","2015-10-07T00:39:47.000Z","2027-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will still be alive in 2200, meaning that the software that I am -- or some modification of it -- will still be running then.",2,,"anonym","anonym",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-17T08:36:47.000Z","2009-10-17T08:36:47.000Z","2200-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will still be alive in 2200, meaning that the software that I am -- or some modification of it -- will still be running then.",1,,"JoshuaZ","anonym",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-24T18:11:26.000Z","2009-10-17T08:36:47.000Z","2200-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will still be alive in 2200, meaning that the software that I am -- or some modification of it -- will still be running then.",4,,"pranomostro","anonym",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T23:28:47.000Z","2009-10-17T08:36:47.000Z","2200-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will still be alive in 2200, meaning that the software that I am -- or some modification of it -- will still be running then.",0,,"deleteyourbrain","anonym",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T01:43:17.322Z","2009-10-17T08:36:47.000Z","2200-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will still be alive in 2200, meaning that the software that I am -- or some modification of it -- will still be running then.",1,,"gwern","anonym",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-19T14:35:57.000Z","2009-10-17T08:36:47.000Z","2200-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In 2022 the US economy will no longer be held to be the world leader in global environmental degradation.""",66,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-16T02:05:16.389Z","2010-07-29T18:28:08.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In 2022 the US economy will no longer be held to be the world leader in global environmental degradation.""",90,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-29T18:28:08.000Z","2010-07-29T18:28:08.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In 2022 the US economy will no longer be held to be the world leader in global environmental degradation.""",72,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T23:09:35.000Z","2010-07-29T18:28:08.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In 2022 the US economy will no longer be held to be the world leader in global environmental degradation.""",70,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-15T21:50:38.124Z","2010-07-29T18:28:08.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In 2022 the US economy will no longer be held to be the world leader in global environmental degradation.""",100,,"deleteyourbrain","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T18:12:35.395Z","2010-07-29T18:28:08.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"""By the end of the year 2020, a professional sports team that is part of either the National Football League, the National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball, the National Hockey League, or Major League Soccer will integrate and have a woman as",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-29T18:50:40.000Z","2010-07-29T18:50:40.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"""By the end of the year 2020, a professional sports team that is part of either the National Football League, the National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball, the National Hockey League, or Major League Soccer will integrate and have a woman as",69,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T23:15:26.000Z","2010-07-29T18:50:40.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"""By the end of the year 2020, a professional sports team that is part of either the National Football League, the National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball, the National Hockey League, or Major League Soccer will integrate and have a woman as",15,,"davatk","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-26T22:43:05.000Z","2010-07-29T18:50:40.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"""By the end of the year 2020, a professional sports team that is part of either the National Football League, the National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball, the National Hockey League, or Major League Soccer will integrate and have a woman as",18,,"kiimberlie","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-16T19:51:05.000Z","2010-07-29T18:50:40.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"""By the end of the year 2020, a professional sports team that is part of either the National Football League, the National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball, the National Hockey League, or Major League Soccer will integrate and have a woman as",20,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-15T21:49:00.346Z","2010-07-29T18:50:40.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Tablet market continues to decline for at least 2 of the next 4 fiscal quarters.",72,,"jesselevine","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-25T04:39:49.000Z","2016-03-25T04:39:49.000Z","2017-03-25T04:39:49.000Z"
"Tablet market continues to decline for at least 2 of the next 4 fiscal quarters.",70,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-29T04:14:16.000Z","2016-03-25T04:39:49.000Z","2017-03-25T04:39:49.000Z"
"Tablet market continues to decline for at least 2 of the next 4 fiscal quarters.",70,,"danpop","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-31T08:39:27.000Z","2016-03-25T04:39:49.000Z","2017-03-25T04:39:49.000Z"
"Tablet market continues to decline for at least 2 of the next 4 fiscal quarters.",69,,"JoshuaZ","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-29T15:09:51.000Z","2016-03-25T04:39:49.000Z","2017-03-25T04:39:49.000Z"
"Tablet market continues to decline for at least 2 of the next 4 fiscal quarters.",70,,"two2thehead","jesselevine","Probably.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-20T05:01:04.000Z","2016-03-25T04:39:49.000Z","2017-03-25T04:39:49.000Z"
"A male friend of mine will marry a woman, only to have it revealed later that she's transitioning to being a man",10,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-25T08:16:08.000Z","2016-03-25T08:16:08.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A male friend of mine will marry a woman, only to have it revealed later that she's transitioning to being a man",1,,"JoshuaZ","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-25T10:38:13.000Z","2016-03-25T08:16:08.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A male friend of mine will marry a woman, only to have it revealed later that she's transitioning to being a man",1,,"EloiseRosen","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-26T04:32:05.000Z","2016-03-25T08:16:08.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A male friend of mine will marry a woman, only to have it revealed later that she's transitioning to being a man",1,,"Leo","themusicgod1","That's awfully specific.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-07T18:09:41.000Z","2016-03-25T08:16:08.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A male friend of mine will marry a woman, only to have it revealed later that she's transitioning to being a man",1,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-29T04:11:27.000Z","2016-03-25T08:16:08.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Until the end of 2037, at no point in time will a person elected or otherwise selected by a political party, other than the Republican and Democratic parties, hold the office of President of the United States.",80,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T10:19:48.498Z","2016-04-09T06:28:34.000Z","2037-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"Until the end of 2037, at no point in time will a person elected or otherwise selected by a political party, other than the Republican and Democratic parties, hold the office of President of the United States.",75,,"Deepak","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-21T16:11:43.810Z","2016-04-09T06:28:34.000Z","2037-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"Until the end of 2037, at no point in time will a person elected or otherwise selected by a political party, other than the Republican and Democratic parties, hold the office of President of the United States.",45,,"NickN","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-19T22:58:04.653Z","2016-04-09T06:28:34.000Z","2037-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"Until the end of 2037, at no point in time will a person elected or otherwise selected by a political party, other than the Republican and Democratic parties, hold the office of President of the United States.",67,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-09T06:28:34.000Z","2016-04-09T06:28:34.000Z","2037-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"Until the end of 2037, at no point in time will a person elected or otherwise selected by a political party, other than the Republican and Democratic parties, hold the office of President of the United States.",54,,"JoshuaZ","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-09T12:15:09.000Z","2016-04-09T06:28:34.000Z","2037-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"Until the end of 2037, at no point in time will a person elected or otherwise selected by a political party, other than the Republican and Democratic parties, hold the office of President of the United States.",85,,"PlacidPlatypus","Bruno Parga","I would recommend rewording this as no ""person not nominated by at least one of the Republican or Democratic party"" or something like that, since I believe a candidate can be nominated by more than one party.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-11T16:55:54.000Z","2016-04-09T06:28:34.000Z","2037-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"Antibiotics prescribed less than 50 times per 1000 Americans in 2050",5,,"Josh Holland","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-28T09:30:23.000Z","2015-09-21T23:25:59.000Z","2051-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"Antibiotics prescribed less than 50 times per 1000 Americans in 2050",5,,"Raahul_Kumar","btrettel","However, 50 times per 1000 is too low. A figure of 415 is more likely aka 50% reduction. I am not counting phages or any other radical breakthrough.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-25T12:01:26.000Z","2015-09-21T23:25:59.000Z","2051-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"Antibiotics prescribed less than 50 times per 1000 Americans in 2050",35,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-24T19:18:52.000Z","2015-09-21T23:25:59.000Z","2051-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"Antibiotics prescribed less than 50 times per 1000 Americans in 2050",15,,"aarongertler","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-04T05:11:03.000Z","2015-09-21T23:25:59.000Z","2051-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"Antibiotics prescribed less than 50 times per 1000 Americans in 2050",25,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-21T23:25:59.000Z","2015-09-21T23:25:59.000Z","2051-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"LessWrong to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",35,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-14T23:04:39.000Z","2015-07-13T10:52:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"LessWrong to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",35,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T10:52:28.000Z","2015-07-13T10:52:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"LessWrong to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",30,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea","Unique users per month would be one reasonable measure. But that info isn't public, as far as I know.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-16T04:47:22.000Z","2015-07-13T10:52:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"LessWrong to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",30,,"David","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-19T13:35:15.000Z","2015-07-13T10:52:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"LessWrong to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",40,,"RoryS","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-14T20:49:50.000Z","2015-07-13T10:52:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2040, at least 40% of Americans making to age 65 will live to age 100.”",48,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:07:53.000Z","2010-07-31T09:26:34.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2040, at least 40% of Americans making to age 65 will live to age 100.”",51,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-15T02:50:49.745Z","2010-07-31T09:26:34.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2040, at least 40% of Americans making to age 65 will live to age 100.”",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-31T09:26:34.000Z","2010-07-31T09:26:34.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2040, at least 40% of Americans making to age 65 will live to age 100.”",40,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-24T17:59:27.000Z","2010-07-31T09:26:34.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2040, at least 40% of Americans making to age 65 will live to age 100.”",4,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T23:57:57.000Z","2010-07-31T09:26:34.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2040, at least 40% of Americans making to age 65 will live to age 100.”",55,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:42:10.856Z","2010-07-31T09:26:34.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a De Facto independent Kurdistan incorporating territory in both former Syria and Iraq through 2020.",20,,"pranomostro","Madplatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T22:54:28.000Z","2015-07-12T06:09:29.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a De Facto independent Kurdistan incorporating territory in both former Syria and Iraq through 2020.",60,,"themusicgod1","Madplatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-19T03:55:39.000Z","2015-07-12T06:09:29.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a De Facto independent Kurdistan incorporating territory in both former Syria and Iraq through 2020.",42,,"JoshuaZ","Madplatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-16T17:49:08.000Z","2015-07-12T06:09:29.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a De Facto independent Kurdistan incorporating territory in both former Syria and Iraq through 2020.",10,,"NathanMcKnight","Madplatypus","I'd put higher odds on a Kurdish state incorporating parts of either Syria *or* Iraq or both, and in any case, I think it'll be another decade at least. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-16T17:32:44.000Z","2015-07-12T06:09:29.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a De Facto independent Kurdistan incorporating territory in both former Syria and Iraq through 2020.",80,,"Madplatypus","Madplatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-12T06:09:29.000Z","2015-07-12T06:09:29.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The popularity of professional American Football (with the huge men and body armor) will decline, and will be overtaken by Soccer (which the rest of the world calls Football)",8,,"themusicgod1","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-29T21:27:39.000Z","2016-04-29T18:02:03.000Z","2022-02-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"The popularity of professional American Football (with the huge men and body armor) will decline, and will be overtaken by Soccer (which the rest of the world calls Football)",64,,"Paul.David.Carr","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-29T18:02:03.000Z","2016-04-29T18:02:03.000Z","2022-02-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"The popularity of professional American Football (with the huge men and body armor) will decline, and will be overtaken by Soccer (which the rest of the world calls Football)",5,,"PlacidPlatypus","Paul.David.Carr","Decline in gridiron popularity and increase in soccer I wouldn't be surprised by, but it's not going to overtake that quickly.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-11T18:26:25.000Z","2016-04-29T18:02:03.000Z","2022-02-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"The popularity of professional American Football (with the huge men and body armor) will decline, and will be overtaken by Soccer (which the rest of the world calls Football)",1,,"two2thehead","Paul.David.Carr","Wanted to post 5 percent but my first thought was 1. Post this so I can compare/contrast results of first thought vs second thought efficacy.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-14T00:45:30.000Z","2016-04-29T18:02:03.000Z","2022-02-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"The popularity of professional American Football (with the huge men and body armor) will decline, and will be overtaken by Soccer (which the rest of the world calls Football)",6,,"Bruno Parga","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-19T03:40:47.000Z","2016-04-29T18:02:03.000Z","2022-02-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Patents will be abolished by at least two leading economies within the next 20 years for all areas except pharmaceuticals.”",3,,"Larks","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-30T02:14:05.000Z","2010-08-02T06:26:41.000Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Patents will be abolished by at least two leading economies within the next 20 years for all areas except pharmaceuticals.”",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:17:31.000Z","2010-08-02T06:26:41.000Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Patents will be abolished by at least two leading economies within the next 20 years for all areas except pharmaceuticals.”",5,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T14:13:14.667Z","2010-08-02T06:26:41.000Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Patents will be abolished by at least two leading economies within the next 20 years for all areas except pharmaceuticals.”",4,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T15:11:26.444Z","2010-08-02T06:26:41.000Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Patents will be abolished by at least two leading economies within the next 20 years for all areas except pharmaceuticals.”",1,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-02T06:26:41.000Z","2010-08-02T06:26:41.000Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Sometime in 2020, Satoshi Nakamoto's bitcoins suddenly start to move again, having not moved until 2020.",2,,"Baeboo","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T04:39:33.013Z","2016-05-02T22:20:15.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Sometime in 2020, Satoshi Nakamoto's bitcoins suddenly start to move again, having not moved until 2020.",28,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-02T22:20:15.000Z","2016-05-02T22:20:15.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Sometime in 2020, Satoshi Nakamoto's bitcoins suddenly start to move again, having not moved until 2020.",6,,"JoshuaZ","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-02T22:31:44.000Z","2016-05-02T22:20:15.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Sometime in 2020, Satoshi Nakamoto's bitcoins suddenly start to move again, having not moved until 2020.",17,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1","If the coins Wright moves this week belong to satoshi this claim will be marked wrong.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-03T16:54:29.000Z","2016-05-02T22:20:15.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Sometime in 2020, Satoshi Nakamoto's bitcoins suddenly start to move again, having not moved until 2020.",8,,"PlacidPlatypus","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-11T18:21:16.000Z","2016-05-02T22:20:15.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Sometime in 2020, Satoshi Nakamoto's bitcoins suddenly start to move again, having not moved until 2020.",0,,"deleteyourbrain","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-25T23:51:14.292Z","2016-05-02T22:20:15.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Sometime in 2020, Satoshi Nakamoto's bitcoins suddenly start to move again, having not moved until 2020.",3,,"Baeboo","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T03:13:46.337Z","2016-05-02T22:20:15.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“On or before 8 June 2030, there will exist a computer language or programming system in which the prototypical first program, traditionally called ""Hello, world!"", will have an executable file whose size exceeds 1 gigabyte.”",5,,"Malgidus","gwern","Some complex genetic coding, maybe?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-27T22:26:44.000Z","2010-08-02T06:30:42.000Z","2030-06-08T12:00:00.000Z"
"“On or before 8 June 2030, there will exist a computer language or programming system in which the prototypical first program, traditionally called ""Hello, world!"", will have an executable file whose size exceeds 1 gigabyte.”",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:23:53.000Z","2010-08-02T06:30:42.000Z","2030-06-08T12:00:00.000Z"
"“On or before 8 June 2030, there will exist a computer language or programming system in which the prototypical first program, traditionally called ""Hello, world!"", will have an executable file whose size exceeds 1 gigabyte.”",2,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T14:10:19.434Z","2010-08-02T06:30:42.000Z","2030-06-08T12:00:00.000Z"
"“On or before 8 June 2030, there will exist a computer language or programming system in which the prototypical first program, traditionally called ""Hello, world!"", will have an executable file whose size exceeds 1 gigabyte.”",1,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-02T06:30:42.000Z","2010-08-02T06:30:42.000Z","2030-06-08T12:00:00.000Z"
"“On or before 8 June 2030, there will exist a computer language or programming system in which the prototypical first program, traditionally called ""Hello, world!"", will have an executable file whose size exceeds 1 gigabyte.”",2,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T15:05:23.933Z","2010-08-02T06:30:42.000Z","2030-06-08T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on Hillary Clinton's genome being sequenced, she will be shown to have a *higher than average probability* of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers.",40,,"EloiseRosen","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-09T13:51:48.000Z","2016-06-07T18:51:55.000Z","2066-06-07T07:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on Hillary Clinton's genome being sequenced, she will be shown to have a *higher than average probability* of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers.",99,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-07T18:51:55.000Z","2016-06-07T18:51:55.000Z","2066-06-07T07:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on Hillary Clinton's genome being sequenced, she will be shown to have a *higher than average probability* of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers.",9,,"themusicgod1","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-07T20:51:11.000Z","2016-06-07T18:51:55.000Z","2066-06-07T07:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on Hillary Clinton's genome being sequenced, she will be shown to have a *higher than average probability* of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers.",70,,"Michael Dickens","two2thehead","wow you guys are really confident in opposite directions",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-08T03:02:49.000Z","2016-06-07T18:51:55.000Z","2066-06-07T07:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on Hillary Clinton's genome being sequenced, she will be shown to have a *higher than average probability* of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers.",42,,"JoshuaZ","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-11T12:54:23.000Z","2016-06-07T18:51:55.000Z","2066-06-07T07:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, The Aether Physics Model will not have replaced quantum physics and the theory of relativity as the standard model.”",100,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-16T22:12:51.000Z","2010-08-02T06:39:07.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, The Aether Physics Model will not have replaced quantum physics and the theory of relativity as the standard model.”",100,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T14:54:39.697Z","2010-08-02T06:39:07.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, The Aether Physics Model will not have replaced quantum physics and the theory of relativity as the standard model.”",100,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-02T06:39:07.000Z","2010-08-02T06:39:07.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, The Aether Physics Model will not have replaced quantum physics and the theory of relativity as the standard model.”",100,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-16T22:28:01.000Z","2010-08-02T06:39:07.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, The Aether Physics Model will not have replaced quantum physics and the theory of relativity as the standard model.”",99,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T14:04:00.583Z","2010-08-02T06:39:07.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“A nuclear explosive weapon will be used in war or terrorism.”",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-02T06:49:32.000Z","2010-08-02T06:49:32.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“A nuclear explosive weapon will be used in war or terrorism.”",46,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:44:41.000Z","2010-08-02T06:49:32.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“A nuclear explosive weapon will be used in war or terrorism.”",35,,"regex","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-22T04:55:34.000Z","2010-08-02T06:49:32.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“A nuclear explosive weapon will be used in war or terrorism.”",23,,"davatk","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-26T16:31:40.000Z","2010-08-02T06:49:32.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“A nuclear explosive weapon will be used in war or terrorism.”",30,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T14:01:08.088Z","2010-08-02T06:49:32.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""We will find life on Mars within 'the next decade', and discover a 'ubiquitous' bacterial ecosystem."" --Peter Diamandis",5,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-04T06:30:22.000Z","2010-08-04T06:30:22.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""We will find life on Mars within 'the next decade', and discover a 'ubiquitous' bacterial ecosystem."" --Peter Diamandis",1,,"Emanuel Rylke","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-29T14:56:50.000Z","2010-08-04T06:30:22.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""We will find life on Mars within 'the next decade', and discover a 'ubiquitous' bacterial ecosystem."" --Peter Diamandis",3,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-29T18:19:27.000Z","2010-08-04T06:30:22.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""We will find life on Mars within 'the next decade', and discover a 'ubiquitous' bacterial ecosystem."" --Peter Diamandis",3,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:40:25.000Z","2010-08-04T06:30:22.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""We will find life on Mars within 'the next decade', and discover a 'ubiquitous' bacterial ecosystem."" --Peter Diamandis",2,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T13:33:26.637Z","2010-08-04T06:30:22.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Scotland rejoins the EU as an independent nation in the next 10 years. ",25,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-27T20:05:33.000Z","2016-06-27T20:05:33.000Z","2026-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Scotland rejoins the EU as an independent nation in the next 10 years. ",50,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-07T15:41:18.000Z","2016-06-27T20:05:33.000Z","2026-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Scotland rejoins the EU as an independent nation in the next 10 years. ",8,,"6thNapoleon","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-08T09:33:33.218Z","2016-06-27T20:05:33.000Z","2026-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Scotland rejoins the EU as an independent nation in the next 10 years. ",55,,"elephantower","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-02T21:42:58.000Z","2016-06-27T20:05:33.000Z","2026-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Scotland rejoins the EU as an independent nation in the next 10 years. ",40,,"Paul.David.Carr","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-07T13:40:13.000Z","2016-06-27T20:05:33.000Z","2026-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By December 31, 2020, synthetic solar energy (fusion) will have been shown to be a technically feasible method of electrical power generation, by an experiment demonstrating a controlled fusion reaction producing more harnessable energy than was used to ",15,,"JoshuaZ","gwern","The date is just much too soon. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-04T18:51:40.000Z","2010-08-28T19:42:20.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By December 31, 2020, synthetic solar energy (fusion) will have been shown to be a technically feasible method of electrical power generation, by an experiment demonstrating a controlled fusion reaction producing more harnessable energy than was used to ",20,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-10T21:14:12.817Z","2010-08-28T19:42:20.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By December 31, 2020, synthetic solar energy (fusion) will have been shown to be a technically feasible method of electrical power generation, by an experiment demonstrating a controlled fusion reaction producing more harnessable energy than was used to ",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-28T19:42:20.000Z","2010-08-28T19:42:20.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By December 31, 2020, synthetic solar energy (fusion) will have been shown to be a technically feasible method of electrical power generation, by an experiment demonstrating a controlled fusion reaction producing more harnessable energy than was used to ",1,,"btrettel","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-04T18:34:58.000Z","2010-08-28T19:42:20.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By December 31, 2020, synthetic solar energy (fusion) will have been shown to be a technically feasible method of electrical power generation, by an experiment demonstrating a controlled fusion reaction producing more harnessable energy than was used to ",33,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T01:28:12.000Z","2010-08-28T19:42:20.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one financial collapse will happen to the US in the 2020s",55,,"Baeboo","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T03:16:09.647Z","2015-07-29T19:23:09.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one financial collapse will happen to the US in the 2020s",70,,"pranomostro","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:05:19.097Z","2015-07-29T19:23:09.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one financial collapse will happen to the US in the 2020s",91,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-22T04:06:13.000Z","2015-07-29T19:23:09.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one financial collapse will happen to the US in the 2020s",65,,"RandomThinker","InquilineKea","Likely.  These happen at least once every ten years.  Although one might happen in 2019 and one in 2031.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-31T04:31:21.000Z","2015-07-29T19:23:09.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one financial collapse will happen to the US in the 2020s",60,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-29T19:23:09.000Z","2015-07-29T19:23:09.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Gathering/absorbing Hawking radiation and generating a net surplus of useful energy (not counting what you feed into the black hole) would violate the Second Law of Thermodynamics.",10,,"So8res","orthonormal","My estimate ignores the ""not counting what you feed in"" clause, as I don't understand it. My claim is that you can build a black hole, feed it matter, reflect/absorb radiation, and thus generate thrust.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-20T21:35:17.000Z","2015-08-18T00:14:10.000Z","2016-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Gathering/absorbing Hawking radiation and generating a net surplus of useful energy (not counting what you feed into the black hole) would violate the Second Law of Thermodynamics.",15,,"kallman","orthonormal","I don't know about violating the Second Law, but there's a number of reasons why it's improbable to be a feasable means of locomotion (especially if you're dragging the black hole along for the ride...)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-22T22:56:47.000Z","2015-08-18T00:14:10.000Z","2016-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Gathering/absorbing Hawking radiation and generating a net surplus of useful energy (not counting what you feed into the black hole) would violate the Second Law of Thermodynamics.",80,,"orthonormal","orthonormal",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-18T00:14:10.000Z","2015-08-18T00:14:10.000Z","2016-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Gathering/absorbing Hawking radiation and generating a net surplus of useful energy (not counting what you feed into the black hole) would violate the Second Law of Thermodynamics.",5,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","orthonormal",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-20T04:00:13.000Z","2015-08-18T00:14:10.000Z","2016-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Gathering/absorbing Hawking radiation and generating a net surplus of useful energy (not counting what you feed into the black hole) would violate the Second Law of Thermodynamics.",20,,"JoshuaZ","orthonormal","If you are, this essentially just becomes an efficient method of converting mass to energy. No 2nd Law violation there. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-18T01:59:53.000Z","2015-08-18T00:14:10.000Z","2016-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Self-driving cars will replace human drivers on public road in at least one country before 2024.",10,,"Pablo","TeMPOraL","You are predicting that (1) self-driving cars will be commercially available by 2024 and that (2) such cars will by then have replaced conventional cars. I think (2) is much more likely than (1), which is not super likely.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-10T22:37:53.000Z","2014-08-24T20:12:24.000Z","2023-12-31T22:00:00.000Z"
"Self-driving cars will replace human drivers on public road in at least one country before 2024.",55,,"Ben Doherty","TeMPOraL",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-02T08:39:25.000Z","2014-08-24T20:12:24.000Z","2023-12-31T22:00:00.000Z"
"Self-driving cars will replace human drivers on public road in at least one country before 2024.",50,,"Calien","TeMPOraL",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-01T09:52:35.000Z","2014-08-24T20:12:24.000Z","2023-12-31T22:00:00.000Z"
"Self-driving cars will replace human drivers on public road in at least one country before 2024.",5,,"penten","TeMPOraL","Assuming ""replace completely"", maybe a tiny island nation with very few cars in the first place? Singapore could stop issuing COEs and get rid of all private cars within 10 years -- in theory",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-14T09:33:25.000Z","2014-08-24T20:12:24.000Z","2023-12-31T22:00:00.000Z"
"Self-driving cars will replace human drivers on public road in at least one country before 2024.",80,,"TeMPOraL","TeMPOraL",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-08-24T20:12:24.000Z","2014-08-24T20:12:24.000Z","2023-12-31T22:00:00.000Z"
"Armed conflict in space before 2050",8,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-29T02:12:19.000Z","2015-08-16T19:30:33.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Armed conflict in space before 2050",2,,"Afforess","btrettel","Highly unlikely. Major powers are not actively seeking new wars, Minor powers lack the ability to influence or affect space-based resources.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-17T20:07:15.000Z","2015-08-16T19:30:33.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Armed conflict in space before 2050",16,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-13T22:44:04.000Z","2015-08-16T19:30:33.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Armed conflict in space before 2050",25,,"sflicht","btrettel","Equal to my probability of a significant armed conflict involving two or more of {US, Russia, China, Japan, India, Pakistan}. Of that set, I have ~80% confidence that US, Russia and China all already have anti-sat weapons in orbit.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-25T18:09:36.000Z","2015-08-16T19:30:33.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Armed conflict in space before 2050",8,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","btrettel","Well, 2050 is a long way off...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-23T04:39:30.000Z","2015-08-16T19:30:33.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Armed conflict in space before 2050",3,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","btrettel","I see. Thanks.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-23T04:38:20.000Z","2015-08-16T19:30:33.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Armed conflict in space before 2050",15,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-16T20:39:27.000Z","2015-08-16T19:30:33.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Armed conflict in space before 2050",5,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-16T19:30:33.000Z","2015-08-16T19:30:33.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"'Complete organ replacements grown from stem cells' in 2020",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T01:53:45.000Z","2010-10-23T00:43:53.000Z","2021-01-01T20:21:00.000Z"
"'Complete organ replacements grown from stem cells' in 2020",55,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-09T19:29:19.325Z","2010-10-23T00:43:53.000Z","2021-01-01T20:21:00.000Z"
"'Complete organ replacements grown from stem cells' in 2020",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-23T00:43:53.000Z","2010-10-23T00:43:53.000Z","2021-01-01T20:21:00.000Z"
"'Complete organ replacements grown from stem cells' in 2020",75,,"phreeza","gwern","http://www.nature.com/news/miniature-human-liver-grown-in-mice-1.13324",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-04T10:05:08.000Z","2010-10-23T00:43:53.000Z","2021-01-01T20:21:00.000Z"
"'Complete organ replacements grown from stem cells' in 2020",70,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-10T00:11:11.177Z","2010-10-23T00:43:53.000Z","2021-01-01T20:21:00.000Z"
"By 2042, solar energy will cost half or less of what fossil-fuel based alternatives do. ",50,,"sflicht","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-25T16:26:15.000Z","2015-08-15T20:11:19.000Z","2042-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2042, solar energy will cost half or less of what fossil-fuel based alternatives do. ",50,,"sflicht","JoshuaZ","I suspect it depends how one measures. It's virtually certain that the generation costs will be very low. http://bit.ly/1IIrSfL But I'm less confident about grid level costs; a bear case is at  http://bit.ly/1IpSaGo",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-25T16:25:40.000Z","2015-08-15T20:11:19.000Z","2042-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2042, solar energy will cost half or less of what fossil-fuel based alternatives do. ",80,,"Raahul_Kumar","JoshuaZ","Solar power is falling in price fast. Fossil fuels are running out and the remaing reserves are expensive to extract.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-25T12:04:35.000Z","2015-08-15T20:11:19.000Z","2042-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2042, solar energy will cost half or less of what fossil-fuel based alternatives do. ",10,,"moridinamael","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-17T20:12:26.000Z","2015-08-15T20:11:19.000Z","2042-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2042, solar energy will cost half or less of what fossil-fuel based alternatives do. ",50,,"btrettel","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-16T17:22:48.000Z","2015-08-15T20:11:19.000Z","2042-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2042, solar energy will cost half or less of what fossil-fuel based alternatives do. ",55,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-15T20:11:19.000Z","2015-08-15T20:11:19.000Z","2042-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2042, solar energy will cost half or less of what fossil-fuel based alternatives do. ",76,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T19:11:06.102Z","2015-08-15T20:11:19.000Z","2042-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2050 Bored in this era, millions decide to use cryonic suspension to emigrate into the future in search of adventure.' --Arthur C. Clarke",2,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-26T16:39:46.000Z","2010-10-26T16:39:46.000Z","2051-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2050 Bored in this era, millions decide to use cryonic suspension to emigrate into the future in search of adventure.' --Arthur C. Clarke",10,,"gimpf","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-12-12T18:14:05.000Z","2010-10-26T16:39:46.000Z","2051-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2050 Bored in this era, millions decide to use cryonic suspension to emigrate into the future in search of adventure.' --Arthur C. Clarke",5,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-01T14:10:54.000Z","2010-10-26T16:39:46.000Z","2051-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2050 Bored in this era, millions decide to use cryonic suspension to emigrate into the future in search of adventure.' --Arthur C. Clarke",2,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:47:36.309Z","2010-10-26T16:39:46.000Z","2051-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2050 Bored in this era, millions decide to use cryonic suspension to emigrate into the future in search of adventure.' --Arthur C. Clarke",1,,"anonym","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-27T20:22:55.000Z","2010-10-26T16:39:46.000Z","2051-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2050 Bored in this era, millions decide to use cryonic suspension to emigrate into the future in search of adventure.' --Arthur C. Clarke",5,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-01T14:10:52.000Z","2010-10-26T16:39:46.000Z","2051-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Experiments at a university have yielded the first 10 year old mice' by 2025",70,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-29T22:31:16.000Z","2010-10-29T22:31:15.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Experiments at a university have yielded the first 10 year old mice' by 2025",10,,"gwern","gwern","last m-prize award, 2009 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2786175/ , max ~1200 day or ~3.3 years, winner must be born soon and have triple current max...? no longer feasible, IMO. very disappointing.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-06T17:23:33.000Z","2010-10-29T22:31:15.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Experiments at a university have yielded the first 10 year old mice' by 2025",15,,"JoshuaZ","gwern","Unfortunately agree with your assessment. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-06T18:07:18.000Z","2010-10-29T22:31:15.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Experiments at a university have yielded the first 10 year old mice' by 2025",15,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:36:02.742Z","2010-10-29T22:31:15.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Experiments at a university have yielded the first 10 year old mice' by 2025",80,,"anonym","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-27T20:27:36.000Z","2010-10-29T22:31:15.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Experiments at a university have yielded the first 10 year old mice' by 2025",80,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-01T14:06:40.000Z","2010-10-29T22:31:15.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Experiments at a university have yielded the first 10 year old mice' by 2025",62,,"JoshuaZ","gwern","Less confident. Difficulties with serious life extension to mice, and they would need to have the basics down by 2015 for the mice to have a chance to live long enough. This would be approximately doubling the current best maximum. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T02:28:25.000Z","2010-10-29T22:31:15.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Experiments at a university have yielded the first 10 year old mice' by 2025",60,,"Malgidus","gwern","Accidents, non-University research facilities. In the time this mouse is born by 2015, it may be possible.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-27T20:59:51.000Z","2010-10-29T22:31:15.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Experiments at a university have yielded the first 10 year old mice' by 2025",7,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:36:40.225Z","2010-10-29T22:31:15.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Among all US high-tech (IT, all computer {soft, hard}ware development) jobs, of the total hours worked in 2035, >=75% will be worked from home.",55,,"pranomostro","sh",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T23:38:49.000Z","2015-06-25T00:31:02.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Among all US high-tech (IT, all computer {soft, hard}ware development) jobs, of the total hours worked in 2035, >=75% will be worked from home.",60,,"Afforess","sh","Adjusting downwards. Recent trends have been bringing workers back onsite, not encouraging telecommuting.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-28T00:20:49.000Z","2015-06-25T00:31:02.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Among all US high-tech (IT, all computer {soft, hard}ware development) jobs, of the total hours worked in 2035, >=75% will be worked from home.",55,,"JoshuaZ","sh",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-29T19:33:50.000Z","2015-06-25T00:31:02.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Among all US high-tech (IT, all computer {soft, hard}ware development) jobs, of the total hours worked in 2035, >=75% will be worked from home.",65,,"btrettel","sh","I think things will move in this direction, but it's unclear to me how many of these workers have higher productivity when working on-site. For me communication is much easier when on-site, and I'm unsure technology will help in time.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-29T17:28:37.000Z","2015-06-25T00:31:02.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Among all US high-tech (IT, all computer {soft, hard}ware development) jobs, of the total hours worked in 2035, >=75% will be worked from home.",80,,"Afforess","sh",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-25T00:31:14.000Z","2015-06-25T00:31:02.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Among all US high-tech (IT, all computer {soft, hard}ware development) jobs, of the total hours worked in 2035, >=75% will be worked from home.",80,,"sh","sh",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-25T00:31:02.000Z","2015-06-25T00:31:02.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Among the top 10% highest-earning jobs (incl. self-employment) in the US, >=75% of the total hours worked will be worked from home.",20,,"Baeboo","sh",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-12T03:37:02.737Z","2015-06-25T00:19:33.000Z","2035-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Among the top 10% highest-earning jobs (incl. self-employment) in the US, >=75% of the total hours worked will be worked from home.",20,,"pranomostro","sh",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T23:39:07.000Z","2015-06-25T00:19:33.000Z","2035-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Among the top 10% highest-earning jobs (incl. self-employment) in the US, >=75% of the total hours worked will be worked from home.",20,,"Afforess","sh","Adjusting downwards. Recent trends have been bringing workers back onsite, not encouraging telecommuting.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-28T00:20:58.000Z","2015-06-25T00:19:33.000Z","2035-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Among the top 10% highest-earning jobs (incl. self-employment) in the US, >=75% of the total hours worked will be worked from home.",30,,"btrettel","sh",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-29T17:30:41.000Z","2015-06-25T00:19:33.000Z","2035-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Among the top 10% highest-earning jobs (incl. self-employment) in the US, >=75% of the total hours worked will be worked from home.",33,,"Afforess","sh",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-25T00:21:23.000Z","2015-06-25T00:19:33.000Z","2035-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Among the top 10% highest-earning jobs (incl. self-employment) in the US, >=75% of the total hours worked will be worked from home.",80,,"sh","sh",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-25T00:19:33.000Z","2015-06-25T00:19:33.000Z","2035-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google Scholar will operate through 2025-07-01",55,,"themusicgod1","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T23:24:23.000Z","2015-06-15T14:00:33.000Z","2025-07-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Google Scholar will operate through 2025-07-01",75,,"David","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-03T08:38:54.000Z","2015-06-15T14:00:33.000Z","2025-07-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Google Scholar will operate through 2025-07-01",60,,"Chri","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-16T09:48:31.000Z","2015-06-15T14:00:33.000Z","2025-07-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Google Scholar will operate through 2025-07-01",85,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-15T14:25:12.000Z","2015-06-15T14:00:33.000Z","2025-07-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Google Scholar will operate through 2025-07-01",95,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-15T14:00:33.000Z","2015-06-15T14:00:33.000Z","2025-07-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Direct commercial access to the web through a brain link by 2030",55,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T23:25:32.000Z","2015-06-12T00:23:52.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Direct commercial access to the web through a brain link by 2030",80,,"brettins","JoshuaZ","I feel more confident than 80% because of news that has come out since, but I""ll keep this at 80% because that's the number I initially gave to JoshuaZ in the reddit thread. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-27T19:43:34.000Z","2015-06-12T00:23:52.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Direct commercial access to the web through a brain link by 2030",0,,"jesselevine","JoshuaZ","I guess it didn't register.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-19T03:47:10.000Z","2015-06-12T00:23:52.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Direct commercial access to the web through a brain link by 2030",1,,"David","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-13T06:32:37.000Z","2015-06-12T00:23:52.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Direct commercial access to the web through a brain link by 2030",29,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-12T00:37:07.000Z","2015-06-12T00:23:52.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Direct commercial access to the web through a brain link by 2030",25,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-12T00:23:52.000Z","2015-06-12T00:23:52.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"arXiv will operate through 2025-07-01",85,,"jasticE","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-18T09:37:40.000Z","2015-06-11T14:18:36.000Z","2025-07-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"arXiv will operate through 2025-07-01",55,,"themusicgod1","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-10T00:50:21.000Z","2015-06-11T14:18:36.000Z","2025-07-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"arXiv will operate through 2025-07-01",85,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-11T19:40:12.000Z","2015-06-11T14:18:36.000Z","2025-07-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"arXiv will operate through 2025-07-01",90,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-11T14:18:37.000Z","2015-06-11T14:18:36.000Z","2025-07-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"arXiv will operate through 2025-07-01",90,,"PseudonymousUser","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-13T04:20:41.000Z","2015-06-11T14:18:36.000Z","2025-07-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will pass Nihon on the IMF's ranking of world's biggest economies. Bharat will be the 3rd biggest economy at GDP current prices in the world in 2022. However, Bharat will be one rank higher as the 2nd biggest economy in PPP terms.
",10,,"Unknowns","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-15T04:25:53.000Z","2015-05-13T01:16:16.000Z","2022-12-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will pass Nihon on the IMF's ranking of world's biggest economies. Bharat will be the 3rd biggest economy at GDP current prices in the world in 2022. However, Bharat will be one rank higher as the 2nd biggest economy in PPP terms.
",5,,"doctorpat","Raahul_Kumar","To be the second biggest by 2022 either the USA or China would have to collapse by then.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-15T01:32:28.000Z","2015-05-13T01:16:16.000Z","2022-12-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will pass Nihon on the IMF's ranking of world's biggest economies. Bharat will be the 3rd biggest economy at GDP current prices in the world in 2022. However, Bharat will be one rank higher as the 2nd biggest economy in PPP terms.
",5,,"jesselevine","Raahul_Kumar","I can't take your wording seriously. You are using country names from two different languages, and the rest of your prediction is in English. Who are you trying to impress?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-14T02:07:20.000Z","2015-05-13T01:16:16.000Z","2022-12-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will pass Nihon on the IMF's ranking of world's biggest economies. Bharat will be the 3rd biggest economy at GDP current prices in the world in 2022. However, Bharat will be one rank higher as the 2nd biggest economy in PPP terms.
",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-13T01:16:16.000Z","2015-05-13T01:16:16.000Z","2022-12-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will pass Nihon on the IMF's ranking of world's biggest economies. Bharat will be the 3rd biggest economy at GDP current prices in the world in 2022. However, Bharat will be one rank higher as the 2nd biggest economy in PPP terms.
",25,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar","Dude, look up the conjunction fallacy, and generally do a little research into how people are generally overconfident. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-13T02:31:07.000Z","2015-05-13T01:16:16.000Z","2022-12-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"Neither Trump nor any of his officials (Cabinet, etc) will endorse the KKK, Stormfront, or explicit neo-Nazis publicly, refuse to back down, etc, and keep their job.",99,,"splorridge","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-17T14:43:03.000Z","2016-11-17T14:43:03.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Neither Trump nor any of his officials (Cabinet, etc) will endorse the KKK, Stormfront, or explicit neo-Nazis publicly, refuse to back down, etc, and keep their job.",99,,"EloiseRosen","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-26T02:07:18.000Z","2016-11-17T14:43:03.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Neither Trump nor any of his officials (Cabinet, etc) will endorse the KKK, Stormfront, or explicit neo-Nazis publicly, refuse to back down, etc, and keep their job.",50,,"themusicgod1","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-17T18:29:10.000Z","2016-11-17T14:43:03.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Neither Trump nor any of his officials (Cabinet, etc) will endorse the KKK, Stormfront, or explicit neo-Nazis publicly, refuse to back down, etc, and keep their job.",99,,"Dapple","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-28T18:29:30.000Z","2016-11-17T14:43:03.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Neither Trump nor any of his officials (Cabinet, etc) will endorse the KKK, Stormfront, or explicit neo-Nazis publicly, refuse to back down, etc, and keep their job.",90,,"two2thehead","splorridge","Nine percent hedge downwards. I'm almost certain this will be true.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-26T13:38:16.000Z","2016-11-17T14:43:03.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"""[In 2036] The great top-down nation-state will be only cosmetically alive... The pre-modernist robust model of city-states... will prevail"" -- Nassim Taleb",20,,"gwern","Nic_Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-26T19:42:32.000Z","2010-11-26T06:32:00.000Z","2037-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""[In 2036] The great top-down nation-state will be only cosmetically alive... The pre-modernist robust model of city-states... will prevail"" -- Nassim Taleb",47,,"themusicgod1","Nic_Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T02:53:37.000Z","2010-11-26T06:32:00.000Z","2037-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""[In 2036] The great top-down nation-state will be only cosmetically alive... The pre-modernist robust model of city-states... will prevail"" -- Nassim Taleb",25,,"pranomostro","Nic_Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:21:30.090Z","2010-11-26T06:32:00.000Z","2037-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""[In 2036] The great top-down nation-state will be only cosmetically alive... The pre-modernist robust model of city-states... will prevail"" -- Nassim Taleb",0,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Nic_Smith","lol, nope",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-12T01:00:03.924Z","2010-11-26T06:32:00.000Z","2037-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""[In 2036] The great top-down nation-state will be only cosmetically alive... The pre-modernist robust model of city-states... will prevail"" -- Nassim Taleb",30,,"Nic_Smith","Nic_Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-26T06:32:02.000Z","2010-11-26T06:32:00.000Z","2037-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The total hate crime incidents as measured by the FBI's Uniform Crime Report will be no more than 125% of their 2015 value at any year during a Trump presidency, conditional on similar reporting methodology.",62,,"leo_grint","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-18T12:41:55.000Z","2016-11-18T04:46:06.000Z","2021-01-02T13:00:00.000Z"
"The total hate crime incidents as measured by the FBI's Uniform Crime Report will be no more than 125% of their 2015 value at any year during a Trump presidency, conditional on similar reporting methodology.",70,,"EloiseRosen","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-26T02:08:41.000Z","2016-11-18T04:46:06.000Z","2021-01-02T13:00:00.000Z"
"The total hate crime incidents as measured by the FBI's Uniform Crime Report will be no more than 125% of their 2015 value at any year during a Trump presidency, conditional on similar reporting methodology.",31,,"Dapple","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-28T18:28:31.000Z","2016-11-18T04:46:06.000Z","2021-01-02T13:00:00.000Z"
"The total hate crime incidents as measured by the FBI's Uniform Crime Report will be no more than 125% of their 2015 value at any year during a Trump presidency, conditional on similar reporting methodology.",70,,"Jayson Virissimo","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-18T04:46:06.000Z","2016-11-18T04:46:06.000Z","2021-01-02T13:00:00.000Z"
"The total hate crime incidents as measured by the FBI's Uniform Crime Report will be no more than 125% of their 2015 value at any year during a Trump presidency, conditional on similar reporting methodology.",50,,"trishume","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-18T20:54:54.000Z","2016-11-18T04:46:06.000Z","2021-01-02T13:00:00.000Z"
"There is a nuclear incident (someone uses a nuke) somewhere in the world in the next 4 years",2,,"Osuniev","Osuniev",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-21T00:45:35.000Z","2016-11-21T00:45:35.000Z","2020-11-21T00:45:35.000Z"
"There is a nuclear incident (someone uses a nuke) somewhere in the world in the next 4 years",49,,"themusicgod1","Osuniev",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-21T04:00:43.000Z","2016-11-21T00:45:35.000Z","2020-11-21T00:45:35.000Z"
"There is a nuclear incident (someone uses a nuke) somewhere in the world in the next 4 years",6,,"pkfalu92","Osuniev",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-04T19:16:41.000Z","2016-11-21T00:45:35.000Z","2020-11-21T00:45:35.000Z"
"There is a nuclear incident (someone uses a nuke) somewhere in the world in the next 4 years",0,,"platypus42","Osuniev",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T19:45:21.935Z","2016-11-21T00:45:35.000Z","2020-11-21T00:45:35.000Z"
"There is a nuclear incident (someone uses a nuke) somewhere in the world in the next 4 years",5,,"RainbowSpacedancer","Osuniev",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-04T00:37:37.000Z","2016-11-21T00:45:35.000Z","2020-11-21T00:45:35.000Z"
"""In 2035, there is thus a good prospect that Britain will be the most populous (our birth rate will be one the highest in Europe), dynamic and richest European country..."" --Will Hutton",15,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-03T15:30:14.000Z","2011-01-03T15:30:14.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In 2035, there is thus a good prospect that Britain will be the most populous (our birth rate will be one the highest in Europe), dynamic and richest European country..."" --Will Hutton",12,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:16:01.324Z","2011-01-03T15:30:14.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In 2035, there is thus a good prospect that Britain will be the most populous (our birth rate will be one the highest in Europe), dynamic and richest European country..."" --Will Hutton",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T03:53:49.000Z","2011-01-03T15:30:14.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In 2035, there is thus a good prospect that Britain will be the most populous (our birth rate will be one the highest in Europe), dynamic and richest European country..."" --Will Hutton",10,,"amadeu","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-07T19:22:59.226Z","2011-01-03T15:30:14.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In 2035, there is thus a good prospect that Britain will be the most populous (our birth rate will be one the highest in Europe), dynamic and richest European country..."" --Will Hutton",1,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-09T01:24:35.164Z","2011-01-03T15:30:14.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'We will eradicate malaria, I believe, to the point where there are no human cases reported globally in 2035' --Tachi Yamada",15,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-03T15:32:05.000Z","2011-01-03T15:32:05.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'We will eradicate malaria, I believe, to the point where there are no human cases reported globally in 2035' --Tachi Yamada",40,,"JoshuaZ","gwern","I'm not sure that the disease will be eradicated but I'd be it seems likely that malaria will no longer  a major cause of death. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-03T23:16:50.000Z","2011-01-03T15:32:05.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'We will eradicate malaria, I believe, to the point where there are no human cases reported globally in 2035' --Tachi Yamada",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T03:10:31.000Z","2011-01-03T15:32:05.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'We will eradicate malaria, I believe, to the point where there are no human cases reported globally in 2035' --Tachi Yamada",52,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T13:57:19.000Z","2011-01-03T15:32:05.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'We will eradicate malaria, I believe, to the point where there are no human cases reported globally in 2035' --Tachi Yamada",51,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-09T13:52:14.620Z","2011-01-03T15:32:05.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'We will eradicate malaria, I believe, to the point where there are no human cases reported globally in 2035' --Tachi Yamada",50,,"gimpf","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-09T12:05:03.000Z","2011-01-03T15:32:05.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'We will eradicate malaria, I believe, to the point where there are no human cases reported globally in 2035' --Tachi Yamada",30,,"JoshuaZ","gwern","Having looked at problem more, seems more unlikely. Tags:disease, medicine",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-04T19:53:35.000Z","2011-01-03T15:32:05.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'We will eradicate malaria, I believe, to the point where there are no human cases reported globally in 2035' --Tachi Yamada",50,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:15:27.879Z","2011-01-03T15:32:05.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'In 25 years, I bet there'll be many products we'll be allowed to buy but not see advertised – the things the government will decide we shouldn't be consuming because of their impact on healthcare costs or the environment but that they can't muster the po",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-03T16:20:53.000Z","2011-01-03T16:20:51.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'In 25 years, I bet there'll be many products we'll be allowed to buy but not see advertised – the things the government will decide we shouldn't be consuming because of their impact on healthcare costs or the environment but that they can't muster the po",60,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-03T23:13:54.000Z","2011-01-03T16:20:51.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'In 25 years, I bet there'll be many products we'll be allowed to buy but not see advertised – the things the government will decide we shouldn't be consuming because of their impact on healthcare costs or the environment but that they can't muster the po",25,,"Nic_Smith","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-04T09:08:59.000Z","2011-01-03T16:20:51.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'In 25 years, I bet there'll be many products we'll be allowed to buy but not see advertised – the things the government will decide we shouldn't be consuming because of their impact on healthcare costs or the environment but that they can't muster the po",65,,"themusicgod1","gwern","but the big question is will we know we're not allowed to see them?   Or will they disappear from our online life without our noticing?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T03:57:20.000Z","2011-01-03T16:20:51.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'In 25 years, I bet there'll be many products we'll be allowed to buy but not see advertised – the things the government will decide we shouldn't be consuming because of their impact on healthcare costs or the environment but that they can't muster the po",30,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:14:06.404Z","2011-01-03T16:20:51.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'In 25 years, I bet there'll be many products we'll be allowed to buy but not see advertised – the things the government will decide we shouldn't be consuming because of their impact on healthcare costs or the environment but that they can't muster the po",55,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:14:17.062Z","2011-01-03T16:20:51.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Professional sports still banning many performance-enhancing drugs. --Mike Lee",63,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T03:07:56.000Z","2011-01-03T16:39:12.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Professional sports still banning many performance-enhancing drugs. --Mike Lee",70,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-03T16:39:12.000Z","2011-01-03T16:39:12.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Professional sports still banning many performance-enhancing drugs. --Mike Lee",85,,"gimpf","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-09T12:15:12.000Z","2011-01-03T16:39:12.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Professional sports still banning many performance-enhancing drugs. --Mike Lee",100,,"kallman","gwern","Many is a weasel word. If it was all, my vote would be different.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-10T07:34:18.000Z","2011-01-03T16:39:12.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Professional sports still banning many performance-enhancing drugs. --Mike Lee",85,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:11:26.415Z","2011-01-03T16:39:12.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2050, less than 20% of the United States will attend church on a regular basis (at least 3 times a month)” --Alex M",65,,"kallman","gwern","I'd like to know the current numbers! I'm assuming it's assuming christian drop regardless of growth in any other religion?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-21T09:02:41.000Z","2011-01-19T17:07:26.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2050, less than 20% of the United States will attend church on a regular basis (at least 3 times a month)” --Alex M",69,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:30:18.688Z","2011-01-19T17:07:26.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2050, less than 20% of the United States will attend church on a regular basis (at least 3 times a month)” --Alex M",40,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T03:21:48.873Z","2011-01-19T17:07:26.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2050, less than 20% of the United States will attend church on a regular basis (at least 3 times a month)” --Alex M",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-19T17:07:29.000Z","2011-01-19T17:07:26.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2050, less than 20% of the United States will attend church on a regular basis (at least 3 times a month)” --Alex M",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T03:18:20.000Z","2011-01-19T17:07:26.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"One of the next 5 years, the total population will be lower at the end of the year than the start of the year. ",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","JoshuaZ","I have predicted the population to hit replacement level, but even then because of population momentum it will continue to increase in terms of total numbers for a 1-2 decades after.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-21T05:22:13.000Z","2015-04-21T18:43:37.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"One of the next 5 years, the total population will be lower at the end of the year than the start of the year. ",4,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Good point. This one should have more uncertainty. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-29T14:04:21.000Z","2015-04-21T18:43:37.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"One of the next 5 years, the total population will be lower at the end of the year than the start of the year. ",5,,"orthonormal","JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ: you put a 15% chance that it will happen in one of the next 10 years, but only 1% in one of the next five? http://predictionbook.com/predictions/71392",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-29T06:27:26.000Z","2015-04-21T18:43:37.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"One of the next 5 years, the total population will be lower at the end of the year than the start of the year. ",0,,"telegrafista","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-14T15:56:12.120Z","2015-04-21T18:43:37.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"One of the next 5 years, the total population will be lower at the end of the year than the start of the year. ",0,,"jesselevine","JoshuaZ","I have to say, it doesn't look good. A major event would have to happen, and I have little confidence in that. Furthermore this .svg from Wiki show a regression analysis that doesn't dip below 0% http://goo.gl/x8s3DP",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-22T16:46:29.000Z","2015-04-21T18:43:37.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"One of the next 5 years, the total population will be lower at the end of the year than the start of the year. ",1,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-21T18:43:37.000Z","2015-04-21T18:43:37.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chocolate a rare luxury by 2032.",20,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-25T15:01:47.000Z","2011-01-25T15:01:47.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chocolate a rare luxury by 2032.",5,,"kallman","gwern","I doubt even ""less popular"". They even do the easter candy year round now...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-25T23:22:46.000Z","2011-01-25T15:01:47.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chocolate a rare luxury by 2032.",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T03:19:13.000Z","2011-01-25T15:01:47.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chocolate a rare luxury by 2032.",25,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:28:19.078Z","2011-01-25T15:01:47.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chocolate a rare luxury by 2032.",5,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T03:15:29.442Z","2011-01-25T15:01:47.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"User:Clippy will donate 50k to SIAI and User:Kevin will create 10^20kg of paperclips.",0,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-03-10T02:21:35.000Z","2011-03-10T02:21:32.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"User:Clippy will donate 50k to SIAI and User:Kevin will create 10^20kg of paperclips.",3,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T03:23:48.000Z","2011-03-10T02:21:32.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"User:Clippy will donate 50k to SIAI and User:Kevin will create 10^20kg of paperclips.",1,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:24:50.760Z","2011-03-10T02:21:32.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"User:Clippy will donate 50k to SIAI and User:Kevin will create 10^20kg of paperclips.",0,,"anonym","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-03-16T06:39:20.000Z","2011-03-10T02:21:32.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"User:Clippy will donate 50k to SIAI and User:Kevin will create 10^20kg of paperclips.",0,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T03:06:07.975Z","2011-03-10T02:21:32.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"White people are going to get their form of a Holocaust, Slavery, etc.",100,,"SINCITYxFoXx","SINCITYxFoXx",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-03-30T03:35:30.000Z","2011-03-30T03:35:28.000Z","2050-03-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"White people are going to get their form of a Holocaust, Slavery, etc.",72,,"themusicgod1","SINCITYxFoXx",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T03:27:13.000Z","2011-03-30T03:35:28.000Z","2050-03-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"White people are going to get their form of a Holocaust, Slavery, etc.",2,,"Athrithalix","SINCITYxFoXx",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-22T13:54:24.000Z","2011-03-30T03:35:28.000Z","2050-03-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"White people are going to get their form of a Holocaust, Slavery, etc.",5,,"gwern","SINCITYxFoXx","where would this be, exactly? in Australia?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-04-09T01:19:37.000Z","2011-03-30T03:35:28.000Z","2050-03-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"White people are going to get their form of a Holocaust, Slavery, etc.",1,,"kallman","SINCITYxFoXx","Arbitrary time limit, and there's too much distaste in the concept in modern nations.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-04-10T03:27:17.000Z","2011-03-30T03:35:28.000Z","2050-03-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Iranian citizenship.",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-08T08:03:22.000Z","2016-01-06T20:32:43.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Iranian citizenship.",12,,"themusicgod1","PipFoweraker","being generous",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-15T00:18:58.000Z","2016-01-06T20:32:43.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Iranian citizenship.",1,,"PipFoweraker","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-06T20:32:43.000Z","2016-01-06T20:32:43.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Iranian citizenship.",1,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-10T04:48:58.000Z","2016-01-06T20:32:43.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Iranian citizenship.",1,,"two2thehead","PipFoweraker","Extremely unlikely",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-15T00:12:25.000Z","2016-01-06T20:32:43.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Rich Sutton: AI by 'roughly 2030'",85,,"bobpage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-06-11T01:40:03.000Z","2011-05-10T17:07:40.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Rich Sutton: AI by 'roughly 2030'",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T04:13:21.000Z","2011-05-10T17:07:40.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Rich Sutton: AI by 'roughly 2030'",15,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T02:55:20.229Z","2011-05-10T17:07:40.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Rich Sutton: AI by 'roughly 2030'",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-10T17:07:41.000Z","2011-05-10T17:07:40.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Rich Sutton: AI by 'roughly 2030'",75,,"bobpage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-17T20:04:06.000Z","2011-05-10T17:07:40.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Rich Sutton: AI by 'roughly 2030'",15,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:22:03.456Z","2011-05-10T17:07:40.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will be awesome in 20 years.",2,,"zwsaz1","zwsaz1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-03-22T05:12:16.000Z","2011-03-22T05:12:15.000Z","2031-03-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will be awesome in 20 years.",3,,"gwern","zwsaz1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-03-23T23:10:13.000Z","2011-03-22T05:12:15.000Z","2031-03-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will be awesome in 20 years.",46,,"themusicgod1","zwsaz1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T03:24:58.000Z","2011-03-22T05:12:15.000Z","2031-03-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will be awesome in 20 years.",95,,"pranomostro","zwsaz1","You're already awesome, and I don't see any good reason to doubt the current trajectory either.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:22:35.113Z","2011-03-22T05:12:15.000Z","2031-03-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will be awesome in 20 years.",50,,"Baeboo","zwsaz1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T02:56:19.265Z","2011-03-22T05:12:15.000Z","2031-03-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"Duterte OD's on some drug",4,,"Bruno Parga","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-31T06:51:22.000Z","2016-12-23T17:09:24.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Duterte OD's on some drug",32,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-23T17:09:24.000Z","2016-12-23T17:09:24.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Duterte OD's on some drug",0,,"Balazs","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-27T23:35:59.000Z","2016-12-23T17:09:24.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Duterte OD's on some drug",2,,"playablecharacter","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-02T21:07:49.000Z","2016-12-23T17:09:24.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Duterte OD's on some drug",25,,"atomicspacemann","themusicgod1","OD to death? Many ODs are recoverable, and if that occurred, it would be sure to be covered up by his inner circle. Even if to death, his supporters would believe it was a conspiracy/fake news.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-23T13:38:36.000Z","2016-12-23T17:09:24.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Crimea still effectively occupied by/part of Russia",91,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-06T22:29:11.000Z","2017-01-06T22:29:11.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Crimea still effectively occupied by/part of Russia",95,,"equivrel","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-07T20:40:56.000Z","2017-01-06T22:29:11.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Crimea still effectively occupied by/part of Russia",90,,"sjy","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-09T17:38:06.000Z","2017-01-06T22:29:11.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Crimea still effectively occupied by/part of Russia",99,,"playablecharacter","themusicgod1","they annexed it",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-07T00:16:59.000Z","2017-01-06T22:29:11.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Crimea still effectively occupied by/part of Russia",99,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-08T10:37:44.485Z","2017-01-06T22:29:11.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'. The Dead Sea Scrolls managed to survive by remaining lost for a couple millennia. Now that they've been located and preserved in a museum, they're probably doomed. I give them two centuries - tops.' --Danny Hillis",40,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-24T18:11:50.000Z","2011-05-22T01:55:07.000Z","2195-02-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"'. The Dead Sea Scrolls managed to survive by remaining lost for a couple millennia. Now that they've been located and preserved in a museum, they're probably doomed. I give them two centuries - tops.' --Danny Hillis",30,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T02:34:47.335Z","2011-05-22T01:55:07.000Z","2195-02-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"'. The Dead Sea Scrolls managed to survive by remaining lost for a couple millennia. Now that they've been located and preserved in a museum, they're probably doomed. I give them two centuries - tops.' --Danny Hillis",30,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-22T01:55:07.000Z","2011-05-22T01:55:07.000Z","2195-02-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"'. The Dead Sea Scrolls managed to survive by remaining lost for a couple millennia. Now that they've been located and preserved in a museum, they're probably doomed. I give them two centuries - tops.' --Danny Hillis",20,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T08:48:02.000Z","2011-05-22T01:55:07.000Z","2195-02-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"'. The Dead Sea Scrolls managed to survive by remaining lost for a couple millennia. Now that they've been located and preserved in a museum, they're probably doomed. I give them two centuries - tops.' --Danny Hillis",20,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:20:52.693Z","2011-05-22T01:55:07.000Z","2195-02-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"'The cost per watt of solar PV has dropped to below $1' by 2027",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-26T22:55:47.000Z","2011-05-26T22:55:47.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'The cost per watt of solar PV has dropped to below $1' by 2027",75,,"Sandra Åhlén","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-26T23:13:45.000Z","2011-05-26T22:55:47.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'The cost per watt of solar PV has dropped to below $1' by 2027",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-08T20:46:24.000Z","2011-05-26T22:55:47.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'The cost per watt of solar PV has dropped to below $1' by 2027",51,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:19:21.976Z","2011-05-26T22:55:47.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'The cost per watt of solar PV has dropped to below $1' by 2027",28,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T02:24:42.968Z","2011-05-26T22:55:47.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'The International Space Station is decommissioned' by 2029",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-26T22:56:51.000Z","2011-05-26T22:56:51.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'The International Space Station is decommissioned' by 2029",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-08T20:47:01.000Z","2011-05-26T22:56:51.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'The International Space Station is decommissioned' by 2029",70,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:19:09.606Z","2011-05-26T22:56:51.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'The International Space Station is decommissioned' by 2029",65,,"JoshuaZ","gwern","Adding on to the station is difficult. Core parts can't be easily replaced and by 2028 will be running up against issues with their engineered lifetimes. No signs of new funding now, but a lot of longterm potential.  ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-28T04:31:22.000Z","2011-05-26T22:56:51.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'The International Space Station is decommissioned' by 2029",30,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T02:17:04.919Z","2011-05-26T22:56:51.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Alzheimer's disease is fully curable"" by 2037",40,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-27T01:34:42.000Z","2011-05-27T01:34:42.000Z","2037-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Alzheimer's disease is fully curable"" by 2037",65,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-27T03:18:17.000Z","2011-05-27T01:34:42.000Z","2037-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Alzheimer's disease is fully curable"" by 2037",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-08T20:48:58.000Z","2011-05-27T01:34:42.000Z","2037-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Alzheimer's disease is fully curable"" by 2037",62,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-08T22:14:07.000Z","2011-05-27T01:34:42.000Z","2037-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Alzheimer's disease is fully curable"" by 2037",35,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:16:11.842Z","2011-05-27T01:34:42.000Z","2037-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Alzheimer's disease is fully curable"" by 2037",25,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T02:01:44.664Z","2011-05-27T01:34:42.000Z","2037-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Population of Perth will be double current number within 40 years",75,,"gwern","nam2001","a doubling in 40 years requires a pretty small growth rate",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-06-01T16:47:07.000Z","2011-05-31T08:25:31.000Z","2051-05-31T08:25:31.000Z"
"Population of Perth will be double current number within 40 years",53,,"themusicgod1","nam2001",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-08T20:53:57.000Z","2011-05-31T08:25:31.000Z","2051-05-31T08:25:31.000Z"
"Population of Perth will be double current number within 40 years",90,,"Baeboo","nam2001",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T01:56:11.756Z","2011-05-31T08:25:31.000Z","2051-05-31T08:25:31.000Z"
"Population of Perth will be double current number within 40 years",60,,"nam2001","nam2001",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-31T08:25:31.000Z","2011-05-31T08:25:31.000Z","2051-05-31T08:25:31.000Z"
"Population of Perth will be double current number within 40 years",80,,"pranomostro","nam2001",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:14:52.694Z","2011-05-31T08:25:31.000Z","2051-05-31T08:25:31.000Z"
"By January 1, 2025 at least one OECD country with a population of at least 5 million people will have more than half of all cars be self-driving. ",5,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T23:54:04.000Z","2015-02-24T04:03:20.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2025 at least one OECD country with a population of at least 5 million people will have more than half of all cars be self-driving. ",55,,"EloiseRosen","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-28T15:01:08.000Z","2015-02-24T04:03:20.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2025 at least one OECD country with a population of at least 5 million people will have more than half of all cars be self-driving. ",75,,"cybrbeast","JoshuaZ","I took the bet, loser pays $50 to a charity of the winner's choosing. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-24T04:12:35.000Z","2015-02-24T04:03:20.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2025 at least one OECD country with a population of at least 5 million people will have more than half of all cars be self-driving. ",35,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-24T04:03:20.000Z","2015-02-24T04:03:20.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2025 at least one OECD country with a population of at least 5 million people will have more than half of all cars be self-driving. ",5,,"Chri","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-27T11:07:19.000Z","2015-02-24T04:03:20.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end 2035, a major mathematical conjecture will be made by a computer with no substantial input from humans. ",70,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-17T08:40:24.000Z","2015-02-09T01:00:25.000Z","2036-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By the end 2035, a major mathematical conjecture will be made by a computer with no substantial input from humans. ",60,,"sweeneyrod","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-09T21:54:01.000Z","2015-02-09T01:00:25.000Z","2036-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By the end 2035, a major mathematical conjecture will be made by a computer with no substantial input from humans. ",60,,"Raahul_Kumar","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-16T06:42:44.000Z","2015-02-09T01:00:25.000Z","2036-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By the end 2035, a major mathematical conjecture will be made by a computer with no substantial input from humans. ",80,,"Houshalter","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-09T02:25:57.000Z","2015-02-09T01:00:25.000Z","2036-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By the end 2035, a major mathematical conjecture will be made by a computer with no substantial input from humans. ",65,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-09T01:00:25.000Z","2015-02-09T01:00:25.000Z","2036-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"US puts another human footprint on the moon",9,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-18T17:50:57.000Z","2017-01-18T17:50:57.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"US puts another human footprint on the moon",15,,"penten","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-19T09:01:26.000Z","2017-01-18T17:50:57.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"US puts another human footprint on the moon",5,,"ioannes","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-20T23:52:24.000Z","2017-01-18T17:50:57.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"US puts another human footprint on the moon",60,,"atomicspacemann","themusicgod1","This is incredibly broad, including missions through the entire future existence of the US as a nation-state. I interpret ""US"" as any US citizen here. A multi-national coalition mission would satisfy this as well.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-23T13:06:30.000Z","2017-01-18T17:50:57.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"US puts another human footprint on the moon",10,,"equivrel","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-29T22:43:40.000Z","2017-01-18T17:50:57.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Confirmed observation of a neutrino source outside our solar system other than SN 1987A by 2060",90,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-25T03:38:49.000Z","2011-07-25T03:38:49.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Confirmed observation of a neutrino source outside our solar system other than SN 1987A by 2060",85,,"gwern","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-25T22:00:53.000Z","2011-07-25T03:38:49.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Confirmed observation of a neutrino source outside our solar system other than SN 1987A by 2060",82,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Thought about this more. Probably overconfident. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-31T16:16:22.000Z","2011-07-25T03:38:49.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Confirmed observation of a neutrino source outside our solar system other than SN 1987A by 2060",90,,"Obsi","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-07T04:47:26.000Z","2011-07-25T03:38:49.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Confirmed observation of a neutrino source outside our solar system other than SN 1987A by 2060",81,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Updating on year gone by. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-07-15T15:08:36.000Z","2011-07-25T03:38:49.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Confirmed observation of a neutrino source outside our solar system other than SN 1987A by 2060",85,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Upgrade due to improvements in IceCube which suggest that similar detectors may be able to have much more sensitivity than would otherwise be apparent. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-05-05T20:59:29.000Z","2011-07-25T03:38:49.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Confirmed observation of a neutrino source outside our solar system other than SN 1987A by 2060",88,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Update due to paper in Physics Review D about black hole neutrino sources. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-11-28T18:52:22.000Z","2011-07-25T03:38:49.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Confirmed observation of a neutrino source outside our solar system other than SN 1987A by 2060",89,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","http://journals.aps.org/prl/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevLett.114.171102 is good evidence that our basic models are correct, and suggests we may have some hope detecting non-supernova sources with slightly more work. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-17T22:38:19.000Z","2011-07-25T03:38:49.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Confirmed observation of a neutrino source outside our solar system other than SN 1987A by 2060",92,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/08/150820125723.htm is very close but not quite there yet, since we don't really have specific sources confirmed. But this is making it look substantially more likely. Updating probability. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-21T00:07:38.000Z","2011-07-25T03:38:49.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Confirmed observation of a neutrino source outside our solar system other than SN 1987A by 2060",63,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T01:19:59.000Z","2011-07-25T03:38:49.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Confirmed observation of a neutrino source outside our solar system other than SN 1987A by 2060",75,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T19:56:50.590Z","2011-07-25T03:38:49.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Emotion-reading wearable device commercially available (may need prescription or license) by 2031, or obtainable by publicly available plans (eg open-source project, Make magazine article, Instructable how-to, etc)",75,,"Nic_Smith","Nic_Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-23T20:21:06.000Z","2011-07-23T20:21:06.000Z","2031-01-01T00:01:00.000Z"
"Emotion-reading wearable device commercially available (may need prescription or license) by 2031, or obtainable by publicly available plans (eg open-source project, Make magazine article, Instructable how-to, etc)",90,,"gwern","Nic_Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-24T18:32:36.000Z","2011-07-23T20:21:06.000Z","2031-01-01T00:01:00.000Z"
"Emotion-reading wearable device commercially available (may need prescription or license) by 2031, or obtainable by publicly available plans (eg open-source project, Make magazine article, Instructable how-to, etc)",80,,"roxton","Nic_Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-19T22:49:30.000Z","2011-07-23T20:21:06.000Z","2031-01-01T00:01:00.000Z"
"Emotion-reading wearable device commercially available (may need prescription or license) by 2031, or obtainable by publicly available plans (eg open-source project, Make magazine article, Instructable how-to, etc)",63,,"themusicgod1","Nic_Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T01:21:00.000Z","2011-07-23T20:21:06.000Z","2031-01-01T00:01:00.000Z"
"Emotion-reading wearable device commercially available (may need prescription or license) by 2031, or obtainable by publicly available plans (eg open-source project, Make magazine article, Instructable how-to, etc)",55,,"pranomostro","Nic_Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T19:57:44.028Z","2011-07-23T20:21:06.000Z","2031-01-01T00:01:00.000Z"
"The ITER fusion reactor will have first plasma by the end of 2022.",70,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-09T20:22:41.000Z","2011-08-09T20:22:41.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The ITER fusion reactor will have first plasma by the end of 2022.",70,,"gwern","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-10T03:27:18.000Z","2011-08-09T20:22:41.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The ITER fusion reactor will have first plasma by the end of 2022.",68,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Running into funding problems again. Not the first time that's happened, but does reduce confidence slightly. See http://www.europolitics.info/sectorial-policies/ep-endorses-framework-extension-iter-finances-still-in-limbo-art318458-14.html",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T02:51:12.000Z","2011-08-09T20:22:41.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The ITER fusion reactor will have first plasma by the end of 2022.",4,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ","The date for the First Plasma is set for December 2025 https://www.euro-fusion.org/2016/06/endorsed-december-2025-for-iter-first-plasma/",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T01:30:42.000Z","2011-08-09T20:22:41.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The ITER fusion reactor will have first plasma by the end of 2022.",1,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T02:25:01.000Z","2011-08-09T20:22:41.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The ITER fusion reactor will have first plasma by the end of 2022.",1,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-03T22:12:54.180Z","2011-08-09T20:22:41.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The ITER fusion reactor will have first plasma by the end of 2022.",1,,"Baeboo","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-04T02:27:47.548Z","2011-08-09T20:22:41.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"github.com will be hacked on a large scale (more than a few user accounts) before 2025-01-01",91,,"themusicgod1","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-22T22:11:53.000Z","2015-08-02T18:46:07.000Z","2025-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"github.com will be hacked on a large scale (more than a few user accounts) before 2025-01-01",65,,"Medea","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-09T22:22:11.000Z","2015-08-02T18:46:07.000Z","2025-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"github.com will be hacked on a large scale (more than a few user accounts) before 2025-01-01",70,,"Afforess","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-19T18:50:38.000Z","2015-08-02T18:46:07.000Z","2025-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"github.com will be hacked on a large scale (more than a few user accounts) before 2025-01-01",75,,"HonoreDB","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-04T18:48:24.000Z","2015-08-02T18:46:07.000Z","2025-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"github.com will be hacked on a large scale (more than a few user accounts) before 2025-01-01",50,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-02T18:46:07.000Z","2015-08-02T18:46:07.000Z","2025-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"""Ten years from now, U.S. public libraries will circulate more than a billion print books each year"" --Walt Crawford",85,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-12T20:34:12.000Z","2011-08-12T20:34:12.000Z","2021-09-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Ten years from now, U.S. public libraries will circulate more than a billion print books each year"" --Walt Crawford",75,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-12T21:15:48.000Z","2011-08-12T20:34:12.000Z","2021-09-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Ten years from now, U.S. public libraries will circulate more than a billion print books each year"" --Walt Crawford",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-04T05:09:16.000Z","2011-08-12T20:34:12.000Z","2021-09-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Ten years from now, U.S. public libraries will circulate more than a billion print books each year"" --Walt Crawford",80,,"pranomostro","gwern","Couldn't find any recent numbers on this, does anyone have an updated value for this?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-03T22:10:48.693Z","2011-08-12T20:34:12.000Z","2021-09-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Ten years from now, U.S. public libraries will circulate more than a billion print books each year"" --Walt Crawford",97,,"Baeboo","gwern","1.97 billion reported physical circulation in 2016, see https://www.imls.gov/sites/default/files/fy2016_pls_data_file_documentation.pdf.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-04T02:46:03.968Z","2011-08-12T20:34:12.000Z","2021-09-01T12:00:00.000Z"
""" I’m reasonably certain that [>1b pub library circulation] will also be true 35 years from now""",40,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-12T20:36:42.000Z","2011-08-12T20:36:42.000Z","2046-09-01T12:00:00.000Z"
""" I’m reasonably certain that [>1b pub library circulation] will also be true 35 years from now""",55,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-12T21:16:00.000Z","2011-08-12T20:36:42.000Z","2046-09-01T12:00:00.000Z"
""" I’m reasonably certain that [>1b pub library circulation] will also be true 35 years from now""",39,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T01:36:23.000Z","2011-08-12T20:36:42.000Z","2046-09-01T12:00:00.000Z"
""" I’m reasonably certain that [>1b pub library circulation] will also be true 35 years from now""",38,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-03T22:08:10.855Z","2011-08-12T20:36:42.000Z","2046-09-01T12:00:00.000Z"
""" I’m reasonably certain that [>1b pub library circulation] will also be true 35 years from now""",15,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-04T02:50:35.242Z","2011-08-12T20:36:42.000Z","2046-09-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"China >=$24.6 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 --HSBC",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-13T00:45:53.000Z","2011-08-13T00:45:53.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"China >=$24.6 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 --HSBC",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T01:42:52.000Z","2011-08-13T00:45:53.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"China >=$24.6 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 --HSBC",70,,"pranomostro","gwern","That would mean doubling its 2017 GDP.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-03T22:07:19.623Z","2011-08-13T00:45:53.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"China >=$24.6 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 --HSBC",96,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-04T03:14:56.204Z","2011-08-13T00:45:53.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"China >=$24.6 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 --HSBC",75,,"amadeu","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-07T19:47:48.711Z","2011-08-13T00:45:53.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US >=$22.3 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 --HSBC",70,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-13T00:45:57.000Z","2011-08-13T00:45:57.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US >=$22.3 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 --HSBC",2,,"Raahul_Kumar","gwern","The USA is in demographic decline, and faces much more competitive nations. Improbable. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-19T08:35:52.000Z","2011-08-13T00:45:57.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US >=$22.3 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 --HSBC",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T01:44:10.000Z","2011-08-13T00:45:57.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US >=$22.3 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 --HSBC",66,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-03T22:04:24.660Z","2011-08-13T00:45:57.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US >=$22.3 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 --HSBC",95,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-04T03:30:47.931Z","2011-08-13T00:45:57.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"American per-capita GDP 3x greater than Chinese per-capita GDP in 2050 --HSBC",37,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T01:46:30.000Z","2011-08-13T00:46:35.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"American per-capita GDP 3x greater than Chinese per-capita GDP in 2050 --HSBC",35,,"pranomostro","gwern","I guess this means ""at least 3x greater"".",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-03T22:01:37.917Z","2011-08-13T00:46:35.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"American per-capita GDP 3x greater than Chinese per-capita GDP in 2050 --HSBC",60,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-04T04:46:44.660Z","2011-08-13T00:46:35.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"American per-capita GDP 3x greater than Chinese per-capita GDP in 2050 --HSBC",70,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-13T00:46:35.000Z","2011-08-13T00:46:35.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"American per-capita GDP 3x greater than Chinese per-capita GDP in 2050 --HSBC",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","gwern","Zhongguo's Income per capita will be 50% of US in 2050
http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1028902.shtml",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-19T08:41:26.000Z","2011-08-13T00:46:35.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2025",10,,"dvolk","sweeneyrod",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-11-09T20:17:59.000Z","2014-10-29T11:53:38.000Z","2025-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2025",40,,"dtov","sweeneyrod",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-29T23:06:43.000Z","2014-10-29T11:53:38.000Z","2025-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2025",70,,"sweeneyrod","sweeneyrod",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-29T11:53:38.000Z","2014-10-29T11:53:38.000Z","2025-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2025",60,,"erikbjare","sweeneyrod",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-30T21:35:54.000Z","2014-10-29T11:53:38.000Z","2025-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2025",60,,"cahembr","sweeneyrod",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-30T13:22:52.000Z","2014-10-29T11:53:38.000Z","2025-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Pakistani citizenship.",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-08T08:03:31.000Z","2016-01-06T20:34:40.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Pakistani citizenship.",2,,"themusicgod1","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-15T01:46:46.000Z","2016-01-06T20:34:40.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Pakistani citizenship.",3,,"themusicgod1","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-15T16:04:20.000Z","2016-01-06T20:34:40.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Pakistani citizenship.",3,,"PipFoweraker","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-06T20:34:40.000Z","2016-01-06T20:34:40.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Pakistani citizenship.",0,,"mortehu","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-11T05:40:19.000Z","2016-01-06T20:34:40.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Pakistani citizenship.",2,,"two2thehead","PipFoweraker","Using India as the upper bound for technological/military possibilities in South Asia. Pakistan, from my limited understanding, doesn't have much space technology or capability. One to two percent.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-15T00:41:06.000Z","2016-01-06T20:34:40.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Pakistani citizenship.",7,,"themusicgod1","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-15T16:03:22.000Z","2016-01-06T20:34:40.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ",0,,"gwern","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-03T18:49:15.000Z","2011-09-02T20:20:38.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ",0,,"Ken","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-10T16:49:00.000Z","2011-09-02T20:20:38.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ",1,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-03T21:44:26.869Z","2011-09-02T20:20:38.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ",0,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-02T20:20:38.000Z","2011-09-02T20:20:38.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ",47,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T02:30:29.000Z","2011-09-02T20:20:38.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Another episode of Firefly featuring most of the original cast (whether real or emulated or CGI) will be made before 2052",14,,"bobpage","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-10T01:19:55.000Z","2011-09-10T01:19:55.000Z","2052-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Another episode of Firefly featuring most of the original cast (whether real or emulated or CGI) will be made before 2052",55,,"JoshuaZ","bobpage","CGI  for a popular TV show and forty years for rapidly improving tech to get to be that good. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-10T03:36:22.000Z","2011-09-10T01:19:55.000Z","2052-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Another episode of Firefly featuring most of the original cast (whether real or emulated or CGI) will be made before 2052",45,,"gwern","bobpage","I'd give this 50% but the 'original cast' clause narrows things down. (Would the Star Wars prequel trilogy satisfy a similar hypothetical prediction? No? then there are lots of Firefly episodes which don't fulfill this)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-10T23:58:54.000Z","2011-09-10T01:19:55.000Z","2052-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Another episode of Firefly featuring most of the original cast (whether real or emulated or CGI) will be made before 2052",30,,"Robert Kosten","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-11T17:54:51.000Z","2011-09-10T01:19:55.000Z","2052-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Another episode of Firefly featuring most of the original cast (whether real or emulated or CGI) will be made before 2052",20,,"pranomostro","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-03T21:41:55.318Z","2011-09-10T01:19:55.000Z","2052-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The appearance of complex numbers in quantum mechanics has something to do with information propagating backwards through time regarding constraints on which possible world(s) may obtain. This is related to getting bits of Chaitin's omega by observing app",0,,"JoshuaZ","Will Newsome",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-24T18:31:49.000Z","2011-09-24T07:52:43.000Z","2031-09-24T07:52:43.000Z"
"The appearance of complex numbers in quantum mechanics has something to do with information propagating backwards through time regarding constraints on which possible world(s) may obtain. This is related to getting bits of Chaitin's omega by observing app",1,,"sweeneyrod","Will Newsome","Sounds like a load of bollocks",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-11-15T12:00:03.000Z","2011-09-24T07:52:43.000Z","2031-09-24T07:52:43.000Z"
"The appearance of complex numbers in quantum mechanics has something to do with information propagating backwards through time regarding constraints on which possible world(s) may obtain. This is related to getting bits of Chaitin's omega by observing app",2,,"Will Newsome","Will Newsome",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-24T07:52:44.000Z","2011-09-24T07:52:43.000Z","2031-09-24T07:52:43.000Z"
"The appearance of complex numbers in quantum mechanics has something to do with information propagating backwards through time regarding constraints on which possible world(s) may obtain. This is related to getting bits of Chaitin's omega by observing app",1,,"fergus","Will Newsome",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-24T10:46:38.000Z","2011-09-24T07:52:43.000Z","2031-09-24T07:52:43.000Z"
"The appearance of complex numbers in quantum mechanics has something to do with information propagating backwards through time regarding constraints on which possible world(s) may obtain. This is related to getting bits of Chaitin's omega by observing app",7,,"themusicgod1","Will Newsome",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T02:50:49.000Z","2011-09-24T07:52:43.000Z","2031-09-24T07:52:43.000Z"
"The appearance of complex numbers in quantum mechanics has something to do with information propagating backwards through time regarding constraints on which possible world(s) may obtain. This is related to getting bits of Chaitin's omega by observing app",0,,"JoshuaZ","Will Newsome",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T20:46:25.000Z","2011-09-24T07:52:43.000Z","2031-09-24T07:52:43.000Z"
"By 2035 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ",5,,"gwern","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-17T15:32:20.000Z","2011-10-15T15:53:17.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2035 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ",6,,"Grognor","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-06T21:24:44.000Z","2011-10-15T15:53:17.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2035 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ",62,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-15T15:53:18.000Z","2011-10-15T15:53:17.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2035 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ",55,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-07T16:26:30.000Z","2011-10-15T15:53:17.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2035 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ",1,,"saturn","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-11T07:05:24.000Z","2011-10-15T15:53:17.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2035 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ",1,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ","Currently 113 or older.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:23:46.545Z","2011-10-15T15:53:17.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, single-lens magnifying glasses that allow a person to view unicellular microorganisms will be available to consumers for less than US$100 (adjusted for inflation). ",15,,"lavalamp","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-11T21:57:48.000Z","2011-11-11T21:28:49.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, single-lens magnifying glasses that allow a person to view unicellular microorganisms will be available to consumers for less than US$100 (adjusted for inflation). ",53,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T21:07:44.000Z","2011-11-11T21:28:49.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, single-lens magnifying glasses that allow a person to view unicellular microorganisms will be available to consumers for less than US$100 (adjusted for inflation). ",80,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-11T21:28:49.000Z","2011-11-11T21:28:49.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, single-lens magnifying glasses that allow a person to view unicellular microorganisms will be available to consumers for less than US$100 (adjusted for inflation). ",30,,"RobertLumley","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-11T21:48:47.000Z","2011-11-11T21:28:49.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, single-lens magnifying glasses that allow a person to view unicellular microorganisms will be available to consumers for less than US$100 (adjusted for inflation). ",55,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-12T03:03:04.000Z","2011-11-11T21:28:49.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2112, deep sea exploration will reveal a hitherto unknown species of living trilobite.",10,,"pranomostro","NathanMcKnight","Interesting question.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T20:34:47.546Z","2011-11-12T02:31:08.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2112, deep sea exploration will reveal a hitherto unknown species of living trilobite.",1,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-12T02:31:08.000Z","2011-11-12T02:31:08.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2112, deep sea exploration will reveal a hitherto unknown species of living trilobite.",20,,"gwern","NathanMcKnight","there are an awful lot of estimated species out there, what makes you so confident we've found all the trilobites?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-12T16:59:24.000Z","2011-11-12T02:31:08.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2112, deep sea exploration will reveal a hitherto unknown species of living trilobite.",5,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-13T03:32:44.000Z","2011-11-12T02:31:08.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2112, deep sea exploration will reveal a hitherto unknown species of living trilobite.",27,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T21:11:42.000Z","2011-11-12T02:31:08.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, the GOP's current libertarian/conservative coalition will  no longer be united under one party. ",60,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-12T18:16:09.000Z","2011-11-12T18:16:09.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, the GOP's current libertarian/conservative coalition will  no longer be united under one party. ",25,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight","oops",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T22:00:19.000Z","2011-11-12T18:16:09.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, the GOP's current libertarian/conservative coalition will  no longer be united under one party. ",30,,"fork","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-12T18:34:00.000Z","2011-11-12T18:16:09.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, the GOP's current libertarian/conservative coalition will  no longer be united under one party. ",80,,"chemotaxis101","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-15T20:15:10.000Z","2011-11-12T18:16:09.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, the GOP's current libertarian/conservative coalition will  no longer be united under one party. ",50,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T21:29:51.000Z","2011-11-12T18:16:09.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, the GOP's current libertarian/conservative coalition will  no longer be united under one party. ",36,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:45:41.000Z","2011-11-12T18:16:09.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No GOP-candidate President elected by the Electoral College before 2033",40,,"bobpage","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-17T18:22:53.000Z","2017-06-17T18:22:53.000Z","2033-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"No GOP-candidate President elected by the Electoral College before 2033",15,,"tehcrash","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-17T19:01:09.000Z","2017-06-17T18:22:53.000Z","2033-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"No GOP-candidate President elected by the Electoral College before 2033",10,,"danielfilan","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-20T18:31:15.000Z","2017-06-17T18:22:53.000Z","2033-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"No GOP-candidate President elected by the Electoral College before 2033",29,,"themusicgod1","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-17T19:56:43.000Z","2017-06-17T18:22:53.000Z","2033-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"No GOP-candidate President elected by the Electoral College before 2033",28,,"Alti Camelus","bobpage","Ooh, 2033!  How bad will Trump have to get to cast such a long shadow over the GOP's prospects?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-20T06:24:23.000Z","2017-06-17T18:22:53.000Z","2033-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I will be married before 2025 (age ~35.5)",30,,"quatrefoil","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-07-13T03:39:11.000Z","2017-07-09T09:14:26.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I will be married before 2025 (age ~35.5)",47,,"bobpage","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-07-09T09:14:26.000Z","2017-07-09T09:14:26.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I will be married before 2025 (age ~35.5)",15,,"ayrsen","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-07-10T16:38:34.000Z","2017-07-09T09:14:26.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I will be married before 2025 (age ~35.5)",40,,"quatrefoil","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-07-13T03:39:54.000Z","2017-07-09T09:14:26.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I will be married before 2025 (age ~35.5)",50,,"thebaelfire","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-07-14T14:05:48.000Z","2017-07-09T09:14:26.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I will be married before 2025 (age ~35.5)",0,,"imwelshnotenglish","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-07-19T22:10:09.000Z","2017-07-09T09:14:26.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2024, either a) group isomorphism problem will be shown to be equivalent to the graph isomorphism problem or b) the group isomorphism will be shown to be in P. ",55,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T06:16:20.000Z","2011-11-17T06:16:20.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2024, either a) group isomorphism problem will be shown to be equivalent to the graph isomorphism problem or b) the group isomorphism will be shown to be in P. ",56,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Updating based on Laszlo Babai annoncement. If his algorithm checks out this goes up to 58. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-04T13:14:41.000Z","2011-11-17T06:16:20.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2024, either a) group isomorphism problem will be shown to be equivalent to the graph isomorphism problem or b) the group isomorphism will be shown to be in P. ",49,,"Baeboo","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T04:34:57.258Z","2011-11-17T06:16:20.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2024, either a) group isomorphism problem will be shown to be equivalent to the graph isomorphism problem or b) the group isomorphism will be shown to be in P. ",0,,"evan_vana90@yahoo.com","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T16:31:10.000Z","2011-11-17T06:16:20.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2024, either a) group isomorphism problem will be shown to be equivalent to the graph isomorphism problem or b) the group isomorphism will be shown to be in P. ",50,,"gwern","JoshuaZ","I have no idea but I know I have no idea",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T20:34:27.000Z","2011-11-17T06:16:20.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2024, either a) group isomorphism problem will be shown to be equivalent to the graph isomorphism problem or b) the group isomorphism will be shown to be in P. ",50,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:45:40.912Z","2011-11-17T06:16:20.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2024, either a) group isomorphism problem will be shown to be equivalent to the graph isomorphism problem or b) the group isomorphism will be shown to be in P. ",44,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Looking less likely now given progress rates. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T21:25:34.317Z","2011-11-17T06:16:20.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Between now and 2022, a religion, subsect, or religious movement will be founded and grow to over 10,000 followers that has explicit ties to Judaism/Christianity/Islam, but rejects the omnipotence of God.",12,,"HonoreDB","HonoreDB",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-03T16:10:50.000Z","2011-12-03T16:10:50.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Between now and 2022, a religion, subsect, or religious movement will be founded and grow to over 10,000 followers that has explicit ties to Judaism/Christianity/Islam, but rejects the omnipotence of God.",4,,"Grognor","HonoreDB","implicit assumption: this will be discoverable. also just seems a priori unlikely.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-04T05:27:09.000Z","2011-12-03T16:10:50.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Between now and 2022, a religion, subsect, or religious movement will be founded and grow to over 10,000 followers that has explicit ties to Judaism/Christianity/Islam, but rejects the omnipotence of God.",10,,"chemotaxis101","HonoreDB",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-06T08:13:09.000Z","2011-12-03T16:10:50.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Between now and 2022, a religion, subsect, or religious movement will be founded and grow to over 10,000 followers that has explicit ties to Judaism/Christianity/Islam, but rejects the omnipotence of God.",1,,"Jayson Virissimo","HonoreDB",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-06T11:33:48.000Z","2011-12-03T16:10:50.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Between now and 2022, a religion, subsect, or religious movement will be founded and grow to over 10,000 followers that has explicit ties to Judaism/Christianity/Islam, but rejects the omnipotence of God.",47,,"themusicgod1","HonoreDB","new sects are founded all the time, 10,000 might happen in 2 years.  I don't see survival advantage to meme/group/individual to deny omnipotence though.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:06:22.000Z","2011-12-03T16:10:50.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 20 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA.",15,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-28T22:34:38.000Z","2011-12-28T22:34:38.000Z","2031-12-28T22:34:38.000Z"
"In 20 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA.",0,,"deleteyourbrain","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-01T20:58:20.514Z","2011-12-28T22:34:38.000Z","2031-12-28T22:34:38.000Z"
"In 20 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA.",20,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-29T14:07:18.000Z","2011-12-28T22:34:38.000Z","2031-12-28T22:34:38.000Z"
"In 20 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA.",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:30:36.000Z","2011-12-28T22:34:38.000Z","2031-12-28T22:34:38.000Z"
"In 20 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA.",16,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:39:07.000Z","2011-12-28T22:34:38.000Z","2031-12-28T22:34:38.000Z"
"In 20 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA.",35,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:36:11.449Z","2011-12-28T22:34:38.000Z","2031-12-28T22:34:38.000Z"
"In 20 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA.",18,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T21:27:54.585Z","2011-12-28T22:34:38.000Z","2031-12-28T22:34:38.000Z"
"There will be a driverless car available for purchase for less than $100,000 (inflation adjusted to Jan 1, 2012) in the US in 2018. ",60,,"Porejide","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-02T06:56:04.000Z","2012-01-02T06:56:04.000Z","2019-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a driverless car available for purchase for less than $100,000 (inflation adjusted to Jan 1, 2012) in the US in 2018. ",60,,"qap","Porejide","http://news.cnet.com/8301-11386_3-57520188-76/googles-sergey-brin-youll-ride-in-robot-cars-within-5-years/

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2424312/Teslas-Elon-Musk-says-self-driving-cars-produced-2016.html",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-21T18:34:39.000Z","2012-01-02T06:56:04.000Z","2019-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a driverless car available for purchase for less than $100,000 (inflation adjusted to Jan 1, 2012) in the US in 2018. ",47,,"themusicgod1","Porejide","you'll ride on one, sure, but you won't own it.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:35:55.000Z","2012-01-02T06:56:04.000Z","2019-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a driverless car available for purchase for less than $100,000 (inflation adjusted to Jan 1, 2012) in the US in 2018. ",55,,"gwern","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-02T15:33:24.000Z","2012-01-02T06:56:04.000Z","2019-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a driverless car available for purchase for less than $100,000 (inflation adjusted to Jan 1, 2012) in the US in 2018. ",10,,"timmartin","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-31T08:53:06.000Z","2012-01-02T06:56:04.000Z","2019-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Charles Stross will survive to 2032",80,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-14T05:01:29.000Z","2012-01-14T05:01:29.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Charles Stross will survive to 2032",75,,"chemotaxis101","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-07-01T15:43:59.000Z","2012-01-14T05:01:29.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Charles Stross will survive to 2032",85,,"Grognor","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-14T05:33:42.000Z","2012-01-14T05:01:29.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Charles Stross will survive to 2032",36,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:38:43.000Z","2012-01-14T05:01:29.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Charles Stross will survive to 2032",80,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:26:39.027Z","2012-01-14T05:01:29.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""oil will still be available and planes will still be burning it."" --Charles Stross ",60,,"spqr0a1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-17T19:09:52.000Z","2012-01-14T05:05:33.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""oil will still be available and planes will still be burning it."" --Charles Stross ",65,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-14T05:05:33.000Z","2012-01-14T05:05:33.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""oil will still be available and planes will still be burning it."" --Charles Stross ",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:42:29.000Z","2012-01-14T05:05:33.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""oil will still be available and planes will still be burning it."" --Charles Stross ",70,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:24:48.720Z","2012-01-14T05:05:33.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""oil will still be available and planes will still be burning it."" --Charles Stross ",70,,"amadeu","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-07T20:22:43.292Z","2012-01-14T05:05:33.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Pilot net-energy fusion plant online by 2032 --Charles Stross",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-14T05:06:19.000Z","2012-01-14T05:06:19.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Pilot net-energy fusion plant online by 2032 --Charles Stross",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:42:55.000Z","2012-01-14T05:06:19.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Pilot net-energy fusion plant online by 2032 --Charles Stross",30,,"spqr0a1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-17T19:14:46.000Z","2012-01-14T05:06:19.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Pilot net-energy fusion plant online by 2032 --Charles Stross",55,,"simplicio","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-20T20:19:00.000Z","2012-01-14T05:06:19.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Pilot net-energy fusion plant online by 2032 --Charles Stross",60,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:24:07.444Z","2012-01-14T05:06:19.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Automated driving infrastructure in First World; majority of new cars large/completely automated. --Charles Stross",67,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:22:46.308Z","2012-01-14T05:08:36.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Automated driving infrastructure in First World; majority of new cars large/completely automated. --Charles Stross",70,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-14T05:08:36.000Z","2012-01-14T05:08:36.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Automated driving infrastructure in First World; majority of new cars large/completely automated. --Charles Stross",50,,"spqr0a1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-17T19:14:33.000Z","2012-01-14T05:08:36.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Automated driving infrastructure in First World; majority of new cars large/completely automated. --Charles Stross",60,,"mad","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-06T02:31:46.000Z","2012-01-14T05:08:36.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Automated driving infrastructure in First World; majority of new cars large/completely automated. --Charles Stross",66,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:44:39.000Z","2012-01-14T05:08:36.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No human will land on another planet before 2050 and survive on that planet for at least 5 years.",85,,"Hierophant","Hierophant",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-14T09:00:59.000Z","2015-10-14T09:00:59.000Z","2055-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"No human will land on another planet before 2050 and survive on that planet for at least 5 years.",75,,"Medea","Hierophant",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-14T09:52:40.000Z","2015-10-14T09:00:59.000Z","2055-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"No human will land on another planet before 2050 and survive on that planet for at least 5 years.",35,,"JoshuaZ","Hierophant",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-14T12:08:33.000Z","2015-10-14T09:00:59.000Z","2055-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"No human will land on another planet before 2050 and survive on that planet for at least 5 years.",40,,"Josh Holland","Hierophant",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-15T09:20:40.000Z","2015-10-14T09:00:59.000Z","2055-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"No human will land on another planet before 2050 and survive on that planet for at least 5 years.",70,,"Josh Holland","Hierophant",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-15T09:20:44.000Z","2015-10-14T09:00:59.000Z","2055-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"No human will land on another planet before 2050 and survive on that planet for at least 5 years.",20,,"coyotespike","Hierophant",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-16T17:34:24.000Z","2015-10-14T09:00:59.000Z","2055-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"All freshwater fisheries fed on processed jellyfish by 2032 --Charles Stross",20,,"spqr0a1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-17T19:10:28.000Z","2012-01-14T05:12:18.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"All freshwater fisheries fed on processed jellyfish by 2032 --Charles Stross",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:46:11.000Z","2012-01-14T05:12:18.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"All freshwater fisheries fed on processed jellyfish by 2032 --Charles Stross",15,,"pranomostro","gwern","Too specific and to near to be that realistic.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:21:21.325Z","2012-01-14T05:12:18.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"All freshwater fisheries fed on processed jellyfish by 2032 --Charles Stross",40,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-14T05:12:18.000Z","2012-01-14T05:12:18.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"All freshwater fisheries fed on processed jellyfish by 2032 --Charles Stross",25,,"lavalamp","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-20T17:16:08.000Z","2012-01-14T05:12:18.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cultured mammalian meat commercially available by 2032 --Charles Stross",70,,"JesseClifton","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-28T23:11:02.000Z","2012-01-14T05:13:03.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cultured mammalian meat commercially available by 2032 --Charles Stross",75,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:19:27.340Z","2012-01-14T05:13:03.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cultured mammalian meat commercially available by 2032 --Charles Stross",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-14T05:13:03.000Z","2012-01-14T05:13:03.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cultured mammalian meat commercially available by 2032 --Charles Stross",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:46:37.000Z","2012-01-14T05:13:03.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cultured mammalian meat commercially available by 2032 --Charles Stross",95,,"Michael Dickens","gwern","My exact number could change depending on how ""commercially available"" is defined. How broadly available does it have to be to qualify?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-05T02:16:37.000Z","2012-01-14T05:13:03.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Moore's Law will have played out by 2032"" --Charles Stross",58,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-20T18:48:24.000Z","2012-01-14T05:14:48.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Moore's Law will have played out by 2032"" --Charles Stross",72,,"themusicgod1","gwern","kurzweil's law of accelerating returns will continue giving though.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:47:02.000Z","2012-01-14T05:14:48.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Moore's Law will have played out by 2032"" --Charles Stross",65,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-14T05:14:48.000Z","2012-01-14T05:14:48.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Moore's Law will have played out by 2032"" --Charles Stross",45,,"lavalamp","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-20T17:15:29.000Z","2012-01-14T05:14:48.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Moore's Law will have played out by 2032"" --Charles Stross",70,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:20:36.503Z","2012-01-14T05:14:48.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Genetically-modified-crop-caused famine by 2032 --Charles Stross",20,,"spqr0a1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-17T19:16:42.000Z","2012-01-14T05:14:50.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Genetically-modified-crop-caused famine by 2032 --Charles Stross",20,,"lavalamp","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-20T17:14:33.000Z","2012-01-14T05:14:50.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Genetically-modified-crop-caused famine by 2032 --Charles Stross",30,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-14T05:14:50.000Z","2012-01-14T05:14:50.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Genetically-modified-crop-caused famine by 2032 --Charles Stross",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:47:53.000Z","2012-01-14T05:14:50.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Genetically-modified-crop-caused famine by 2032 --Charles Stross",20,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:18:56.288Z","2012-01-14T05:14:50.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google+ will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034.",0,,"themusicgod1","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-21T02:02:17.000Z","2014-04-28T21:11:16.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google+ will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034.",1,,"procran","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-05-11T00:35:24.000Z","2014-04-28T21:11:16.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google+ will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034.",0,,"Neznans","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-04-29T14:29:35.000Z","2014-04-28T21:11:16.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google+ will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034.",1,,"Pablo","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-05-01T18:20:04.000Z","2014-04-28T21:11:16.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google+ will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034.",33,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-04-28T21:11:16.000Z","2014-04-28T21:11:16.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""gigabit wireless connection speeds will be the norm outside the home or office"" by 2032 --Charles Stross",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-14T05:15:05.000Z","2012-01-14T05:15:05.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""gigabit wireless connection speeds will be the norm outside the home or office"" by 2032 --Charles Stross",60,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-18T06:17:33.000Z","2012-01-14T05:15:05.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""gigabit wireless connection speeds will be the norm outside the home or office"" by 2032 --Charles Stross",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:48:07.000Z","2012-01-14T05:15:05.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""gigabit wireless connection speeds will be the norm outside the home or office"" by 2032 --Charles Stross",70,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:18:33.263Z","2012-01-14T05:15:05.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""gigabit wireless connection speeds will be the norm outside the home or office"" by 2032 --Charles Stross",67,,"spqr0a1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-17T19:16:16.000Z","2012-01-14T05:15:05.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Presence of life in the past (or present) that doesn't originate from Earth will be discovered in the solar system before 2050.",15,,"Iksorod","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-04-14T23:53:05.000Z","2014-04-04T07:37:46.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Presence of life in the past (or present) that doesn't originate from Earth will be discovered in the solar system before 2050.",20,,"procran","Mati Roy"," .",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-04-06T21:45:32.000Z","2014-04-04T07:37:46.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Presence of life in the past (or present) that doesn't originate from Earth will be discovered in the solar system before 2050.",25,,"JoshuaZ","Mati Roy","Box box box",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-04-04T13:30:40.000Z","2014-04-04T07:37:46.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Presence of life in the past (or present) that doesn't originate from Earth will be discovered in the solar system before 2050.",10,,"mfb","Mati Roy","The timescale is not as long as it might look like",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-04-13T00:31:42.000Z","2014-04-04T07:37:46.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Presence of life in the past (or present) that doesn't originate from Earth will be discovered in the solar system before 2050.",14,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-04-04T07:37:46.000Z","2014-04-04T07:37:46.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""HIV will be curable — either through better anti retroviral drugs or through gene therapy"" by 2032 --Charles Stross",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:50:33.000Z","2012-01-14T05:18:29.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""HIV will be curable — either through better anti retroviral drugs or through gene therapy"" by 2032 --Charles Stross",40,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-14T05:18:29.000Z","2012-01-14T05:18:29.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""HIV will be curable — either through better anti retroviral drugs or through gene therapy"" by 2032 --Charles Stross",45,,"spqr0a1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-17T19:05:45.000Z","2012-01-14T05:18:29.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""HIV will be curable — either through better anti retroviral drugs or through gene therapy"" by 2032 --Charles Stross",45,,"lavalamp","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-20T16:51:50.000Z","2012-01-14T05:18:29.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""HIV will be curable — either through better anti retroviral drugs or through gene therapy"" by 2032 --Charles Stross",55,,"lavalamp","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-25T23:07:37.000Z","2012-01-14T05:18:29.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""HIV will be curable — either through better anti retroviral drugs or through gene therapy"" by 2032 --Charles Stross",38,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:15:30.020Z","2012-01-14T05:18:29.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will be 5-10 billion people."" --Charles Stross",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:51:01.000Z","2012-01-14T05:21:03.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will be 5-10 billion people."" --Charles Stross",38,,"pranomostro","gwern","http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/news/population/2015-report.html",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:13:27.240Z","2012-01-14T05:21:03.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will be 5-10 billion people."" --Charles Stross",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-14T05:21:03.000Z","2012-01-14T05:21:03.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will be 5-10 billion people."" --Charles Stross",40,,"spqr0a1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-17T19:06:05.000Z","2012-01-14T05:21:03.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""There will be 5-10 billion people."" --Charles Stross",40,,"lavalamp","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-20T16:52:35.000Z","2012-01-14T05:21:03.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Most roads in the USA will not use speed limit units of miles per hour on January 1st 2040.",2,,"lavalamp","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-03-06T22:27:00.000Z","2014-02-24T01:23:48.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Most roads in the USA will not use speed limit units of miles per hour on January 1st 2040.",35,,"JoshuaZ","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-03-06T14:45:04.000Z","2014-02-24T01:23:48.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Most roads in the USA will not use speed limit units of miles per hour on January 1st 2040.",20,,"scrafty","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-03-04T20:16:34.000Z","2014-02-24T01:23:48.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Most roads in the USA will not use speed limit units of miles per hour on January 1st 2040.",10,,"procran","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-03-01T00:20:25.000Z","2014-02-24T01:23:48.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Most roads in the USA will not use speed limit units of miles per hour on January 1st 2040.",17,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-24T01:23:48.000Z","2014-02-24T01:23:48.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Aging arrested or reversible by 2092 --Charles Stross",64,,"krazemon","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-31T00:11:15.326Z","2012-01-14T05:22:07.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Aging arrested or reversible by 2092 --Charles Stross",60,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:10:48.978Z","2012-01-14T05:22:07.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Aging arrested or reversible by 2092 --Charles Stross",65,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-14T05:22:07.000Z","2012-01-14T05:22:07.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Aging arrested or reversible by 2092 --Charles Stross",72,,"spqr0a1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-17T19:07:01.000Z","2012-01-14T05:22:07.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Aging arrested or reversible by 2092 --Charles Stross",70,,"lavalamp","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-20T16:50:38.000Z","2012-01-14T05:22:07.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Gentoo will remain my primary OS over the next decade",65,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Jach","Hmm. That's a long time.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-10T03:57:29.000Z","2016-01-10T02:07:02.000Z","2026-01-10T02:07:02.000Z"
"Gentoo will remain my primary OS over the next decade",80,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Jach","Nicer than I realized though.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-10T04:04:24.000Z","2016-01-10T02:07:02.000Z","2026-01-10T02:07:02.000Z"
"Gentoo will remain my primary OS over the next decade",25,,"bobpage","Jach",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-10T06:25:08.000Z","2016-01-10T02:07:02.000Z","2026-01-10T02:07:02.000Z"
"Gentoo will remain my primary OS over the next decade",90,,"Jach","Jach",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-10T02:07:02.000Z","2016-01-10T02:07:02.000Z","2026-01-10T02:07:02.000Z"
"Gentoo will remain my primary OS over the next decade",43,,"themusicgod1","Jach","Alternative history: you'll spend more time on some flavour of Android than Gentoo by the end of it, and slowly, but surely realize you only spend time on Android, rather than Gentoo.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-10T04:49:48.000Z","2016-01-10T02:07:02.000Z","2026-01-10T02:07:02.000Z"
"Gentoo will remain my primary OS over the next decade",40,,"splorridge","Jach",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-11T10:34:24.000Z","2016-01-10T02:07:02.000Z","2026-01-10T02:07:02.000Z"
"Before 2030, more than 35% of US-Americans will have no religious identity (not counting babies).",40,,"Michael Dickens","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-08T00:48:57.000Z","2014-02-06T08:32:12.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030, more than 35% of US-Americans will have no religious identity (not counting babies).",39,,"themusicgod1","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-01T23:57:29.000Z","2014-02-06T08:32:12.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030, more than 35% of US-Americans will have no religious identity (not counting babies).",10,,"Neznans","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-06-10T09:23:08.000Z","2014-02-06T08:32:12.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030, more than 35% of US-Americans will have no religious identity (not counting babies).",65,,"Amélie_Roy","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-07T20:05:23.000Z","2014-02-06T08:32:12.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030, more than 35% of US-Americans will have no religious identity (not counting babies).",50,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-06T08:32:12.000Z","2014-02-06T08:32:12.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Software Engineer will become a protected term in California before 2028. ",70,,"jacobgreenleaf","jacobgreenleaf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-13T11:39:27.000Z","2017-11-13T11:39:27.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Software Engineer will become a protected term in California before 2028. ",10,,"futurulus","jacobgreenleaf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-15T07:46:18.000Z","2017-11-13T11:39:27.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Software Engineer will become a protected term in California before 2028. ",40,,"futurulus","jacobgreenleaf","drat, should have noticed my confusion more there. 'protected term' ≠ 'protected class'",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-15T08:01:08.000Z","2017-11-13T11:39:27.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Software Engineer will become a protected term in California before 2028. ",15,,"Michael Dickens","jacobgreenleaf","Sadly my ~30 seconds of Googling could not find a legal definition.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-16T04:57:05.000Z","2017-11-13T11:39:27.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Software Engineer will become a protected term in California before 2028. ",20,,"Tenobrus","jacobgreenleaf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-16T16:43:15.000Z","2017-11-13T11:39:27.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Software Engineer will become a protected term in California before 2028. ",10,,"Athrithalix","jacobgreenleaf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-17T11:52:25.000Z","2017-11-13T11:39:27.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Sean Penn will end up killed in gang-related violence.",1,,"preditctorment","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-14T20:44:31.000Z","2016-01-11T01:18:10.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Sean Penn will end up killed in gang-related violence.",60,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-11T01:18:10.000Z","2016-01-11T01:18:10.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Sean Penn will end up killed in gang-related violence.",1,,"JoshuaZ","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-11T01:23:08.000Z","2016-01-11T01:18:10.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Sean Penn will end up killed in gang-related violence.",1,,"bobpage","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-11T01:58:58.000Z","2016-01-11T01:18:10.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Sean Penn will end up killed in gang-related violence.",4,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-11T04:30:45.000Z","2016-01-11T01:18:10.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"KIC 8462852's strange light patterns will be determined within a very high confidence to be natural  by November 1, 2027",75,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-14T18:37:42.000Z","2015-10-14T18:37:42.000Z","2027-10-02T22:00:00.000Z"
"KIC 8462852's strange light patterns will be determined within a very high confidence to be natural  by November 1, 2027",70,,"Medea","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-14T18:51:39.000Z","2015-10-14T18:37:42.000Z","2027-10-02T22:00:00.000Z"
"KIC 8462852's strange light patterns will be determined within a very high confidence to be natural  by November 1, 2027",80,,"Josh Holland","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-15T09:21:22.000Z","2015-10-14T18:37:42.000Z","2027-10-02T22:00:00.000Z"
"KIC 8462852's strange light patterns will be determined within a very high confidence to be natural  by November 1, 2027",82,,"EloiseRosen","JoshuaZ","Probability that the light patterns are not caused by aliens is very high. Probability that we'll be able to determine that with very high confidence by this date is less high.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-23T20:20:12.000Z","2015-10-14T18:37:42.000Z","2027-10-02T22:00:00.000Z"
"KIC 8462852's strange light patterns will be determined within a very high confidence to be natural  by November 1, 2027",85,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Updating based on https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/strange-star-likely-swarmed-by-comets ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-27T14:23:30.000Z","2015-10-14T18:37:42.000Z","2027-10-02T22:00:00.000Z"
"KIC 8462852's strange light patterns will be determined within a very high confidence to be natural  by November 1, 2027",84,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","arxiv.org/pdf/1601.03256v1.pdf",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-14T16:41:24.000Z","2015-10-14T18:37:42.000Z","2027-10-02T22:00:00.000Z"
"KIC 8462852's strange light patterns will be determined within a very high confidence to be natural  by November 1, 2027",58,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T18:25:05.000Z","2015-10-14T18:37:42.000Z","2027-10-02T22:00:00.000Z"
"Functioning commercial fusion by 2112 --Kennys_Heroes, BBC",54,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:58:37.000Z","2012-01-24T03:11:19.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Functioning commercial fusion by 2112 --Kennys_Heroes, BBC",58,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T00:25:37.463Z","2012-01-24T03:11:19.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Functioning commercial fusion by 2112 --Kennys_Heroes, BBC",75,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-24T03:11:19.000Z","2012-01-24T03:11:19.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Functioning commercial fusion by 2112 --Kennys_Heroes, BBC",70,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-24T03:24:07.000Z","2012-01-24T03:11:19.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Functioning commercial fusion by 2112 --Kennys_Heroes, BBC",66,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T05:40:58.987Z","2012-01-24T03:11:19.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Movie theaters to be less popular in 2020 than 2015",55,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-10T00:32:10.000Z","2015-07-25T05:56:54.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Movie theaters to be less popular in 2020 than 2015",99,,"silacoid","InquilineKea","It's o a downwards trend and there's no tech on the horizon to swing it up again",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-05T12:54:43.000Z","2015-07-25T05:56:54.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Movie theaters to be less popular in 2020 than 2015",65,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-03T13:57:12.000Z","2015-07-25T05:56:54.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Movie theaters to be less popular in 2020 than 2015",80,,"espore","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-02T21:06:13.000Z","2015-07-25T05:56:54.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Movie theaters to be less popular in 2020 than 2015",75,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-25T05:56:54.000Z","2015-07-25T05:56:54.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""80% of the world will have gay marriage"" --Paul, BBC",65,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-24T03:22:51.000Z","2012-01-24T03:15:04.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""80% of the world will have gay marriage"" --Paul, BBC",75,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-24T03:15:04.000Z","2012-01-24T03:15:04.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""80% of the world will have gay marriage"" --Paul, BBC",63,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:59:14.000Z","2012-01-24T03:15:04.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""80% of the world will have gay marriage"" --Paul, BBC",80,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T00:24:48.109Z","2012-01-24T03:15:04.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""80% of the world will have gay marriage"" --Paul, BBC",75,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T05:39:18.793Z","2012-01-24T03:15:04.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Use of cell phones common as of 2015 will be considered carcinogenic by 2065-08-01",0,,"espore","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-02T20:58:05.000Z","2015-07-24T12:56:47.000Z","2065-08-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Use of cell phones common as of 2015 will be considered carcinogenic by 2065-08-01",4,,"EloiseRosen","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-27T17:23:08.000Z","2015-07-24T12:56:47.000Z","2065-08-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Use of cell phones common as of 2015 will be considered carcinogenic by 2065-08-01",3,,"David","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-25T08:52:43.000Z","2015-07-24T12:56:47.000Z","2065-08-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Use of cell phones common as of 2015 will be considered carcinogenic by 2065-08-01",2,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-24T14:25:15.000Z","2015-07-24T12:56:47.000Z","2065-08-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Use of cell phones common as of 2015 will be considered carcinogenic by 2065-08-01",1,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-24T12:56:48.000Z","2015-07-24T12:56:47.000Z","2065-08-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Kepler 425b to have detectable life on it",12,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T15:20:19.000Z","2015-07-23T18:37:44.000Z","2099-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Kepler 425b to have detectable life on it",11,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea","Yeah, you are right. Not only that it does but that it will be detected by then. Reducing probability. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-26T11:44:48.000Z","2015-07-23T18:37:44.000Z","2099-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Kepler 425b to have detectable life on it",1,,"David","InquilineKea","25% is insane.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-26T09:42:39.000Z","2015-07-23T18:37:44.000Z","2099-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Kepler 425b to have detectable life on it",1,,"Chri","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-24T12:29:34.000Z","2015-07-23T18:37:44.000Z","2099-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Kepler 425b to have detectable life on it",25,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-23T22:41:29.000Z","2015-07-23T18:37:44.000Z","2099-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Kepler 425b to have detectable life on it",10,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-23T18:37:44.000Z","2015-07-23T18:37:44.000Z","2099-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Kepler 425b to have detectable life on it",4,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T20:12:07.924Z","2015-07-23T18:37:44.000Z","2099-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a population boom in arctic communities in the next hundred years.",75,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-12-16T20:54:58.000Z","2013-12-16T20:54:58.000Z","2113-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a population boom in arctic communities in the next hundred years.",10,,"Patrick Brinich-Langlois","NathanMcKnight","I don't know what would count as a boom. The Arctic is in the northern hemisphere.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-13T09:41:05.000Z","2013-12-16T20:54:58.000Z","2113-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a population boom in arctic communities in the next hundred years.",15,,"deanmullen2014","NathanMcKnight","I think there'll be a population growth but not whole civilization, except in places a little below the arctic (i.e; northern scandanavia and far southern south america) due to climate change and other factors.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-12-31T22:48:21.000Z","2013-12-16T20:54:58.000Z","2113-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a population boom in arctic communities in the next hundred years.",80,,"CaelumCodicem","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-06T03:24:00.554Z","2013-12-16T20:54:58.000Z","2113-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a population boom in arctic communities in the next hundred years.",70,,"galen","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-07T09:22:21.706Z","2013-12-16T20:54:58.000Z","2113-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"South Africa will be a smoking ruin similar to Zimbabwe by 2033. Specifically, the price of gold in Rand will have risen at least 20-fold (current price 12,857.80 rand / oz) , and unemployment will be at least 40% currently 23%.",57,,"themusicgod1","waveman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-14T06:38:48.000Z","2013-12-06T23:49:16.000Z","2033-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"South Africa will be a smoking ruin similar to Zimbabwe by 2033. Specifically, the price of gold in Rand will have risen at least 20-fold (current price 12,857.80 rand / oz) , and unemployment will be at least 40% currently 23%.",25,,"rebellionkid","waveman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-21T20:23:51.000Z","2013-12-06T23:49:16.000Z","2033-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"South Africa will be a smoking ruin similar to Zimbabwe by 2033. Specifically, the price of gold in Rand will have risen at least 20-fold (current price 12,857.80 rand / oz) , and unemployment will be at least 40% currently 23%.",30,,"simplicio","waveman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-02T15:35:13.000Z","2013-12-06T23:49:16.000Z","2033-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"South Africa will be a smoking ruin similar to Zimbabwe by 2033. Specifically, the price of gold in Rand will have risen at least 20-fold (current price 12,857.80 rand / oz) , and unemployment will be at least 40% currently 23%.",10,,"Ben Doherty","waveman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-12-13T13:35:50.000Z","2013-12-06T23:49:16.000Z","2033-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"South Africa will be a smoking ruin similar to Zimbabwe by 2033. Specifically, the price of gold in Rand will have risen at least 20-fold (current price 12,857.80 rand / oz) , and unemployment will be at least 40% currently 23%.",65,,"waveman","waveman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-12-06T23:49:16.000Z","2013-12-06T23:49:16.000Z","2033-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Screens will not be the primary form of interface with mobile devices by 2025",47,,"themusicgod1","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T00:33:04.000Z","2012-03-24T19:56:28.000Z","2025-01-16T01:00:00.000Z"
"Screens will not be the primary form of interface with mobile devices by 2025",12,,"pranomostro","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T00:16:14.335Z","2012-03-24T19:56:28.000Z","2025-01-16T01:00:00.000Z"
"Screens will not be the primary form of interface with mobile devices by 2025",30,,"Ben Doherty","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-24T19:56:28.000Z","2012-03-24T19:56:28.000Z","2025-01-16T01:00:00.000Z"
"Screens will not be the primary form of interface with mobile devices by 2025",10,,"gwern","Ben Doherty","as opposed to what?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-25T16:51:39.000Z","2012-03-24T19:56:28.000Z","2025-01-16T01:00:00.000Z"
"Screens will not be the primary form of interface with mobile devices by 2025",15,,"RandomThinker","Ben Doherty","Assume you mean phones.  Screens are still most convenient way to interact with them for a while.  ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-31T07:47:46.000Z","2012-03-24T19:56:28.000Z","2025-01-16T01:00:00.000Z"
"_HP MoR_: the original Quirrel killed his parents",25,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-07T19:07:49.000Z","2012-04-07T19:07:49.000Z","2016-01-01T16:30:48.000Z"
"_HP MoR_: the original Quirrel killed his parents",20,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-10T08:04:04.000Z","2012-04-07T19:07:49.000Z","2016-01-01T16:30:48.000Z"
"_HP MoR_: the original Quirrel killed his parents",10,,"Oscar_Cunningham","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-20T13:20:57.000Z","2012-04-07T19:07:49.000Z","2016-01-01T16:30:48.000Z"
"_HP MoR_: the original Quirrel killed his parents",15,,"Sarokrae","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-29T18:19:30.000Z","2012-04-07T19:07:49.000Z","2016-01-01T16:30:48.000Z"
"_HP MoR_: the original Quirrel killed his parents",5,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-29T18:22:20.000Z","2012-04-07T19:07:49.000Z","2016-01-01T16:30:48.000Z"
"I will still be alive in 2078.",55,,"JoshuaZ","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-12T14:55:54.000Z","2012-05-11T09:11:21.000Z","2078-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will still be alive in 2078.",25,,"davidiach","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-06-06T09:55:52.000Z","2012-05-11T09:11:21.000Z","2078-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will still be alive in 2078.",72,,"CaelumCodicem","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-06T03:26:40.818Z","2012-05-11T09:11:21.000Z","2078-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will still be alive in 2078.",50,,"Jayson Virissimo","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-11T09:11:21.000Z","2012-05-11T09:11:21.000Z","2078-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will still be alive in 2078.",47,,"themusicgod1","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T00:54:19.000Z","2012-05-11T09:11:21.000Z","2078-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Runaway methane release from permafrost and other sources to result in near extinction or imminent extinction of humanity by August 15, 2038",0,,"NickN","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T03:42:10.254Z","2018-08-02T14:04:11.000Z","2038-08-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Runaway methane release from permafrost and other sources to result in near extinction or imminent extinction of humanity by August 15, 2038",2,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-02T20:40:14.000Z","2018-08-02T14:04:11.000Z","2038-08-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Runaway methane release from permafrost and other sources to result in near extinction or imminent extinction of humanity by August 15, 2038",1,,"phi","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-05T22:16:12.000Z","2018-08-02T14:04:11.000Z","2038-08-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Runaway methane release from permafrost and other sources to result in near extinction or imminent extinction of humanity by August 15, 2038",5,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-08-02T14:04:11.000Z","2018-08-02T14:04:11.000Z","2038-08-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Runaway methane release from permafrost and other sources to result in near extinction or imminent extinction of humanity by August 15, 2038",0,,"Medea","JoshuaZ","If it happens, this site certainly won't be running anymore.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-10T15:42:32.000Z","2018-08-02T14:04:11.000Z","2038-08-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"there will be a Democratic Senate at least once by 2042",98,,"Baeboo","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T19:34:04.654Z","2020-11-05T16:32:22.095Z","2043-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"there will be a Democratic Senate at least once by 2042",97,,"Liging","peter_hurford","Higher likelihood than me being alive to check the outcome.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-15T18:30:03.935Z","2020-11-05T16:32:22.095Z","2043-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"there will be a Democratic Senate at least once by 2042",97,,"peter_hurford","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-05T16:32:22.099Z","2020-11-05T16:32:22.095Z","2043-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"there will be a Democratic Senate at least once by 2042",95,,"chemotaxis101","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-07T15:21:25.759Z","2020-11-05T16:32:22.095Z","2043-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"there will be a Democratic Senate at least once by 2042",96,,"PlacidPlatypus","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-07T19:51:34.967Z","2020-11-05T16:32:22.095Z","2043-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""I make the falsifiable prediction that during Pope Francis's tenure the Catholic Church will shrink, its proportional membership will diminish and its contributions per member will drop."" -- EY (on Facebook)",52,,"themusicgod1","ygert",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-30T06:48:55.000Z","2013-09-20T06:11:01.000Z","2023-09-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"""I make the falsifiable prediction that during Pope Francis's tenure the Catholic Church will shrink, its proportional membership will diminish and its contributions per member will drop."" -- EY (on Facebook)",65,,"John Smith","ygert",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-30T03:06:46.000Z","2013-09-20T06:11:01.000Z","2023-09-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"""I make the falsifiable prediction that during Pope Francis's tenure the Catholic Church will shrink, its proportional membership will diminish and its contributions per member will drop."" -- EY (on Facebook)",45,,"JoshuaZ","ygert",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-20T14:32:36.000Z","2013-09-20T06:11:01.000Z","2023-09-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"""I make the falsifiable prediction that during Pope Francis's tenure the Catholic Church will shrink, its proportional membership will diminish and its contributions per member will drop."" -- EY (on Facebook)",80,,"ygert","ygert",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-20T06:11:01.000Z","2013-09-20T06:11:01.000Z","2023-09-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"""I make the falsifiable prediction that during Pope Francis's tenure the Catholic Church will shrink, its proportional membership will diminish and its contributions per member will drop."" -- EY (on Facebook)",55,,"drewmm","ygert",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-07T06:00:14.000Z","2013-09-20T06:11:01.000Z","2023-09-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"There are ten or more US Supreme Court justices by the end of 2024",3,,"peter_hurford","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-05T16:31:47.652Z","2020-11-05T16:31:47.648Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There are ten or more US Supreme Court justices by the end of 2024",60,,"avi","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-06T01:20:06.478Z","2020-11-05T16:31:47.648Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There are ten or more US Supreme Court justices by the end of 2024",1,,"batemancapital","peter_hurford","Not gonna happen if Mitch is still in Senate",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-07T17:01:51.342Z","2020-11-05T16:31:47.648Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There are ten or more US Supreme Court justices by the end of 2024",2,,"JoshuaZ","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T13:42:46.186Z","2020-11-05T16:31:47.648Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There are ten or more US Supreme Court justices by the end of 2024",5,,"PlacidPlatypus","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-07T20:04:48.915Z","2020-11-05T16:31:47.648Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"NASA will not announce ""Voyager 1 has entered interstellar space"" again within the next 5 years",45,,"JoshuaZ","mfb",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-19T12:58:31.000Z","2013-09-13T23:09:29.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"NASA will not announce ""Voyager 1 has entered interstellar space"" again within the next 5 years",98,,"rk","mfb",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-10-12T12:14:51.000Z","2013-09-13T23:09:29.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"NASA will not announce ""Voyager 1 has entered interstellar space"" again within the next 5 years",75,,"HonoreDB","mfb",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-19T12:26:39.000Z","2013-09-13T23:09:29.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"NASA will not announce ""Voyager 1 has entered interstellar space"" again within the next 5 years",75,,"mfb","mfb",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-13T23:09:29.000Z","2013-09-13T23:09:29.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"NASA will not announce ""Voyager 1 has entered interstellar space"" again within the next 5 years",75,,"Somni","mfb",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-24T20:50:43.364Z","2013-09-13T23:09:29.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"The ""Rapture"" will not occur by the end of 2050.",95,,"RandomThinker","davidiach","Just have it be determined by a declaration of the Catholic Church.  If they publicly declare it, we'll assume it happened.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-06-07T04:46:24.000Z","2012-06-06T11:00:28.000Z","2050-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"The ""Rapture"" will not occur by the end of 2050.",100,,"chimpsky","davidiach",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-06-07T21:27:46.000Z","2012-06-06T11:00:28.000Z","2050-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"The ""Rapture"" will not occur by the end of 2050.",100,,"davidiach","davidiach",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-06-06T11:00:28.000Z","2012-06-06T11:00:28.000Z","2050-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"The ""Rapture"" will not occur by the end of 2050.",100,,"Leo","davidiach","Would the Catholic Church not deny the Rapture if it excluded Catholics?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-06-07T14:47:59.000Z","2012-06-06T11:00:28.000Z","2050-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"The ""Rapture"" will not occur by the end of 2050.",100,,"themusicgod1","davidiach",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T00:58:18.000Z","2012-06-06T11:00:28.000Z","2050-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 5 years",0,,"MultiplyByZer0","jazzsolo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T04:57:36.832Z","2018-12-03T21:23:13.288Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 5 years",15,,"Michael Dickens","jazzsolo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T00:45:07.143Z","2018-12-03T21:23:13.288Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 5 years",10,,"Medea","jazzsolo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-11T17:14:33.460Z","2018-12-03T21:23:13.288Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 5 years",80,,"jazzsolo","jazzsolo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-03T21:23:13.294Z","2018-12-03T21:23:13.288Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 5 years",30,,"pranomostro","jazzsolo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-06T18:52:29.642Z","2018-12-03T21:23:13.288Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 5 years",3,,"MultiplyByZer0","jazzsolo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-30T02:59:34.580Z","2018-12-03T21:23:13.288Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will be using Bash in 10 years",25,,"chemotaxis101","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-07-01T15:30:01.000Z","2012-06-28T23:56:10.000Z","2022-06-28T23:56:10.000Z"
"I will be using Bash in 10 years",13,,"bobpage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-07-02T06:17:42.000Z","2012-06-28T23:56:10.000Z","2022-06-28T23:56:10.000Z"
"I will be using Bash in 10 years",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-06-28T23:56:10.000Z","2012-06-28T23:56:10.000Z","2022-06-28T23:56:10.000Z"
"I will be using Bash in 10 years",33,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-07-02T09:40:03.000Z","2012-06-28T23:56:10.000Z","2022-06-28T23:56:10.000Z"
"I will be using Bash in 10 years",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T01:00:24.000Z","2012-06-28T23:56:10.000Z","2022-06-28T23:56:10.000Z"
"Woolly Mammoth to be resurrected by 2100",88,,"aarongertler","InquilineKea","Lots of things are going to happen in the next 85 years. This seems like one of those things that someone will knock off without much fanfare.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-10T04:29:31.000Z","2015-08-06T06:49:53.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Woolly Mammoth to be resurrected by 2100",60,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-06T06:49:53.000Z","2015-08-06T06:49:53.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Woolly Mammoth to be resurrected by 2100",85,,"Raahul_Kumar","InquilineKea","Geneticist George Church's lab at Harvard University successfully copied genes from frozen woolly mammoths and pasted them into the genome of an Asian elephant. 25 Mar 2015

Pleistocene Park is already existing habitat.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-08T12:49:38.000Z","2015-08-06T06:49:53.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Woolly Mammoth to be resurrected by 2100",55,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-06T20:33:42.000Z","2015-08-06T06:49:53.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"For the year of 2020, natural gas will account for a higher percentage of US energy consumption than wind and solar power combined.",50,,"themusicgod1","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T06:16:51.000Z","2012-08-18T22:49:51.000Z","2021-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"For the year of 2020, natural gas will account for a higher percentage of US energy consumption than wind and solar power combined.",61,,"JoshuaZ","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-21T14:31:54.000Z","2012-08-18T22:49:51.000Z","2021-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"For the year of 2020, natural gas will account for a higher percentage of US energy consumption than wind and solar power combined.",66,,"Jayson Virissimo","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-18T22:49:51.000Z","2012-08-18T22:49:51.000Z","2021-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"For the year of 2020, natural gas will account for a higher percentage of US energy consumption than wind and solar power combined.",65,,"RandomThinker","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-19T03:25:40.000Z","2012-08-18T22:49:51.000Z","2021-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will not be impeached",67,,"Baeboo","bklorimer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-03T03:32:39.384Z","2019-02-02T14:51:09.457Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will not be impeached",68,,"xdxdxd","bklorimer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-04T23:35:07.464Z","2019-02-02T14:51:09.457Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will not be impeached",65,,"bklorimer","bklorimer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-02T14:51:09.473Z","2019-02-02T14:51:09.457Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will not be impeached",66,,"pranomostro","bklorimer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-03T20:54:22.594Z","2019-02-02T14:51:09.457Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Venezuela to go to war with at least one other country before November 1, 2025. ",27,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-19T06:59:32.000Z","2015-10-25T17:01:10.000Z","2025-11-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"Venezuela to go to war with at least one other country before November 1, 2025. ",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","JoshuaZ","There hasn't been a war in South America for decades. Unlikely.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conflicts_in_South_America",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-28T11:03:18.000Z","2015-10-25T17:01:10.000Z","2025-11-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"Venezuela to go to war with at least one other country before November 1, 2025. ",25,,"Medea","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-27T17:32:04.000Z","2015-10-25T17:01:10.000Z","2025-11-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"Venezuela to go to war with at least one other country before November 1, 2025. ",22,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-25T17:01:10.000Z","2015-10-25T17:01:10.000Z","2025-11-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Global average temperatures have risen by 4°C*'",20,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-06-07T19:03:59.000Z","2011-06-07T19:03:59.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Global average temperatures have risen by 4°C*'",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-08T20:57:19.000Z","2011-06-07T19:03:59.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Global average temperatures have risen by 4°C*'",23,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:13:10.394Z","2011-06-07T19:03:59.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Global average temperatures have risen by 4°C*'",25,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-02T15:33:23.000Z","2011-06-07T19:03:59.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Global average temperatures have risen by 3°C'",30,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-06-07T19:05:11.000Z","2011-06-07T19:05:11.000Z","2056-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Global average temperatures have risen by 3°C'",38,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:12:58.027Z","2011-06-07T19:05:11.000Z","2056-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Global average temperatures have risen by 3°C'",40,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-02T15:33:10.000Z","2011-06-07T19:05:11.000Z","2056-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Global average temperatures have risen by 3°C'",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-08T20:57:07.000Z","2011-06-07T19:05:11.000Z","2056-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a breakthrough in mass cell culture that allows for growing artificial human organs & ""clean meat"" by 2050",65,,"pranomostro","AlexLamson","Noticed the conjunction.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-25T17:56:57.192Z","2019-04-16T22:49:41.389Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a breakthrough in mass cell culture that allows for growing artificial human organs & ""clean meat"" by 2050",85,,"pranomostro","AlexLamson",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-18T21:41:32.741Z","2019-04-16T22:49:41.389Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a breakthrough in mass cell culture that allows for growing artificial human organs & ""clean meat"" by 2050",80,,"AlexLamson","AlexLamson",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-16T22:49:41.406Z","2019-04-16T22:49:41.389Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a breakthrough in mass cell culture that allows for growing artificial human organs & ""clean meat"" by 2050",99,,"Num","AlexLamson",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-06-12T23:56:15.541Z","2019-04-16T22:49:41.389Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a breakthrough in mass cell culture that allows for growing artificial human organs & ""clean meat"" by 2050",99,,"Hesse","AlexLamson",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-28T17:19:06.963Z","2019-04-16T22:49:41.389Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will be ranked 2nd in the world by 2020 for steel production.",58,,"themusicgod1","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-06T18:03:43.000Z","2016-01-29T23:34:50.000Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will be ranked 2nd in the world by 2020 for steel production.",97,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-30T03:23:27.000Z","2016-01-29T23:34:50.000Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will be ranked 2nd in the world by 2020 for steel production.",99,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-29T23:34:50.000Z","2016-01-29T23:34:50.000Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will be ranked 2nd in the world by 2020 for steel production.",98,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-30T03:34:47.000Z","2016-01-29T23:34:50.000Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 100 predictions from non-Ought users by EOD Sunday 15th?",30,,"Amanda N","Andreas S","","","users-Nov","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-14T00:32:29.020Z","2020-11-12T02:47:08.914Z","2021-11-16T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 100 predictions from non-Ought users by EOD Sunday 15th?",18,,"Amanda N","Andreas S","","","users-Nov","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-14T00:45:07.649Z","2020-11-12T02:47:08.914Z","2021-11-16T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 100 predictions from non-Ought users by EOD Sunday 15th?",75,,"Ethan Perez","Andreas S","","","users-Nov","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T18:39:22.305Z","2020-11-12T02:47:08.914Z","2021-11-16T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 100 predictions from non-Ought users by EOD Sunday 15th?",40,,"Andreas S","Andreas S","","","users-Nov","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T02:47:08.920Z","2020-11-12T02:47:08.914Z","2021-11-16T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will there be more than 100 predictions from non-Ought users by EOD Sunday 15th?",10,,"jungwon","Andreas S","","","users-Nov","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T15:29:00.142Z","2020-11-12T02:47:08.914Z","2021-11-16T08:00:00.000Z"
"'Global average temperatures have risen by 2°C'",40,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-06-07T19:06:24.000Z","2011-06-07T19:06:24.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Global average temperatures have risen by 2°C'",45,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-02T15:32:54.000Z","2011-06-07T19:06:24.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Global average temperatures have risen by 2°C'",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-08T20:56:45.000Z","2011-06-07T19:06:24.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Global average temperatures have risen by 2°C'",50,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:12:44.554Z","2011-06-07T19:06:24.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'The vast majority of countries are democratic' by 2055",25,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-06-07T19:08:48.000Z","2011-06-07T19:08:48.000Z","2055-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'The vast majority of countries are democratic' by 2055",38,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-08T22:12:55.000Z","2011-06-07T19:08:48.000Z","2055-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'The vast majority of countries are democratic' by 2055",38,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:10:51.370Z","2011-06-07T19:08:48.000Z","2055-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'The vast majority of countries are democratic' by 2055",33,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:10:55.838Z","2011-06-07T19:08:48.000Z","2055-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'The vast majority of countries are democratic' by 2055",40,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-06-07T21:28:43.000Z","2011-06-07T19:08:48.000Z","2055-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'The vast majority of countries are democratic' by 2055",36,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-08T20:57:36.000Z","2011-06-07T19:08:48.000Z","2055-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump war with China, Trump removal, or delayed/non-existent elections by 2020. Details in comments. ",0,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-21T09:36:43.746Z","2017-01-20T01:31:38.000Z","2021-01-21T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump war with China, Trump removal, or delayed/non-existent elections by 2020. Details in comments. ",14,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-20T01:31:38.000Z","2017-01-20T01:31:38.000Z","2021-01-21T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump war with China, Trump removal, or delayed/non-existent elections by 2020. Details in comments. ",73,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-20T17:00:15.000Z","2017-01-20T01:31:38.000Z","2021-01-21T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trump war with China, Trump removal, or delayed/non-existent elections by 2020. Details in comments. ",8,,"ioannes","JoshuaZ","Why not make three separate predictions? It's harder to think about unions of events.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-20T23:46:30.000Z","2017-01-20T01:31:38.000Z","2021-01-21T23:00:00.000Z"
"exactly 15",20,,"Bruno Parga","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-04T02:51:39.707Z","2019-09-26T06:28:04.254Z","2020-11-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"exactly 15",13,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-28T03:52:56.241Z","2019-09-26T06:28:04.254Z","2020-11-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"exactly 15",8,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-29T03:14:29.504Z","2019-09-26T06:28:04.254Z","2020-11-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"exactly 15",19,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-26T06:28:04.259Z","2019-09-26T06:28:04.254Z","2020-11-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"exactly 15",18,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-10-08T06:24:40.658Z","2019-09-26T06:28:04.254Z","2020-11-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"exactly 15",19,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-06T07:21:52.772Z","2019-09-26T06:28:04.254Z","2020-11-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"exactly 15",13,,"Baeboo","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-28T07:26:33.423Z","2019-09-26T06:28:04.254Z","2020-11-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"exactly 15",25,,"pranomostro","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-10-09T16:36:05.737Z","2019-09-26T06:28:04.254Z","2020-11-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"exactly 15",20,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-10-14T03:55:46.705Z","2019-09-26T06:28:04.254Z","2020-11-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"Total death toll from malaria by year end 2017 will be > 350,000. ",90,,"technicalities","technicalities",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-23T22:21:20.000Z","2017-01-23T22:21:20.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Total death toll from malaria by year end 2017 will be > 350,000. ",53,,"themusicgod1","technicalities",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-24T03:27:43.000Z","2017-01-23T22:21:20.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Total death toll from malaria by year end 2017 will be > 350,000. ",70,,"skinnersboxy","technicalities",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-21T00:03:54.000Z","2017-01-23T22:21:20.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Total death toll from malaria by year end 2017 will be > 350,000. ",64,,"JoshuaZ","technicalities","Agree this should probably have deadline extended. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-01-01T02:46:41.000Z","2017-01-23T22:21:20.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"exactly 14",17,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-10-08T06:24:38.534Z","2019-09-26T06:28:04.247Z","2020-11-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"exactly 14",18,,"pranomostro","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-10-09T16:36:02.425Z","2019-09-26T06:28:04.247Z","2020-11-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"exactly 14",18,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-06T07:21:57.577Z","2019-09-26T06:28:04.247Z","2020-11-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"exactly 14",13,,"Baeboo","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-28T07:26:10.453Z","2019-09-26T06:28:04.247Z","2020-11-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"exactly 14",4,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-29T03:14:22.031Z","2019-09-26T06:28:04.247Z","2020-11-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"exactly 14",19,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-26T06:28:04.250Z","2019-09-26T06:28:04.247Z","2020-11-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"exactly 14",16,,"Bruno Parga","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-04T02:52:30.882Z","2019-09-26T06:28:04.247Z","2020-11-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"exactly 14",8,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-28T03:52:50.854Z","2019-09-26T06:28:04.247Z","2020-11-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX sends a passenger flight to Mars by 2023.",20,,"Anubhav","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-22T05:52:45.000Z","2012-03-22T05:52:45.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX sends a passenger flight to Mars by 2023.",5,,"RandomThinker","Anubhav","Harder than it seems.  China will get there before SpaceX.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-28T21:17:30.000Z","2012-03-22T05:52:45.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX sends a passenger flight to Mars by 2023.",5,,"JoshuaZ","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-29T02:50:51.000Z","2012-03-22T05:52:45.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX sends a passenger flight to Mars by 2023.",5,,"Jayson Virissimo","Anubhav","I almost substituted ""someone will make it to Mars"" for ""SpaceX will make it to Mars."".",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-29T09:27:22.000Z","2012-03-22T05:52:45.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump's investigation into illegal voting will report at least 500,000 illegal votes cast in the 2016 election. ",90,,"regex","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-25T16:56:47.000Z","2017-01-25T16:56:47.000Z","2021-01-25T16:56:47.000Z"
"Trump's investigation into illegal voting will report at least 500,000 illegal votes cast in the 2016 election. ",50,,"penten","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-26T08:21:37.000Z","2017-01-25T16:56:47.000Z","2021-01-25T16:56:47.000Z"
"Trump's investigation into illegal voting will report at least 500,000 illegal votes cast in the 2016 election. ",48,,"themusicgod1","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-25T20:59:35.000Z","2017-01-25T16:56:47.000Z","2021-01-25T16:56:47.000Z"
"Trump's investigation into illegal voting will report at least 500,000 illegal votes cast in the 2016 election. ",10,,"equivrel","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-29T22:39:18.000Z","2017-01-25T16:56:47.000Z","2021-01-25T16:56:47.000Z"
"exactly 13",16,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-26T06:28:04.243Z","2019-09-26T06:28:04.240Z","2020-11-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"exactly 13",13,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-20T03:01:55.338Z","2019-09-26T06:28:04.240Z","2020-11-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"exactly 13",15,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-06T07:22:01.860Z","2019-09-26T06:28:04.240Z","2020-11-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"exactly 13",11,,"Baeboo","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-28T07:25:51.819Z","2019-09-26T06:28:04.240Z","2020-11-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"exactly 13",1,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-29T03:14:08.455Z","2019-09-26T06:28:04.240Z","2020-11-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"exactly 13",15,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-10-08T06:24:36.830Z","2019-09-26T06:28:04.240Z","2020-11-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"exactly 13",15,,"pranomostro","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-10-09T16:35:57.730Z","2019-09-26T06:28:04.240Z","2020-11-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"exactly 13",12,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-10-14T03:55:33.757Z","2019-09-26T06:28:04.240Z","2020-11-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"exactly 13",13,,"Bruno Parga","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-04T02:51:59.479Z","2019-09-26T06:28:04.240Z","2020-11-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"exactly 13",3,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-28T03:52:46.014Z","2019-09-26T06:28:04.240Z","2020-11-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"Food shortages, resurgent Islamic radicalism, and a torrent of oil revenues will cause an “Arab Spring” movement to overthrow the Saudi Arabian government (http://rationalconspiracy.com/2012/11/23/the-real-america-of-2022/)",60,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T07:01:43.000Z","2015-07-11T07:01:43.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Food shortages, resurgent Islamic radicalism, and a torrent of oil revenues will cause an “Arab Spring” movement to overthrow the Saudi Arabian government (http://rationalconspiracy.com/2012/11/23/the-real-america-of-2022/)",56,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-08T16:40:38.000Z","2015-07-11T07:01:43.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Food shortages, resurgent Islamic radicalism, and a torrent of oil revenues will cause an “Arab Spring” movement to overthrow the Saudi Arabian government (http://rationalconspiracy.com/2012/11/23/the-real-america-of-2022/)",8,,"elephantower","InquilineKea","What is meant by a ""torrent of oil revenues"", and why would this cause a revolution? Also, I assume that this prediction would be wrong if a revolution occurs but 1+ of the 3 conditions doesn't?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-10T08:26:08.000Z","2015-07-11T07:01:43.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Food shortages, resurgent Islamic radicalism, and a torrent of oil revenues will cause an “Arab Spring” movement to overthrow the Saudi Arabian government (http://rationalconspiracy.com/2012/11/23/the-real-america-of-2022/)",45,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T13:53:25.000Z","2015-07-11T07:01:43.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
">1000 sq. mi of currently-Canadian land is under US sovereignty as of july 4 2028",0,,"jamesrom","finback",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-22T03:46:26.416Z","2020-08-21T15:32:55.995Z","2028-07-04T18:00:00.000Z"
">1000 sq. mi of currently-Canadian land is under US sovereignty as of july 4 2028",3,,"finback","finback",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-21T15:32:56.000Z","2020-08-21T15:32:55.995Z","2028-07-04T18:00:00.000Z"
">1000 sq. mi of currently-Canadian land is under US sovereignty as of july 4 2028",1,,"NickN","finback",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-24T16:15:12.564Z","2020-08-21T15:32:55.995Z","2028-07-04T18:00:00.000Z"
">1000 sq. mi of currently-Canadian land is under US sovereignty as of july 4 2028",0,,"Bruno Parga","finback",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T12:53:22.332Z","2020-08-21T15:32:55.995Z","2028-07-04T18:00:00.000Z"
"Google will be the most used search engine for the web in 2050.",40,,"asalmon","Chri",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-27T21:04:37.000Z","2015-01-26T08:36:38.000Z","2051-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google will be the most used search engine for the web in 2050.",70,,"sweeneyrod","Chri",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-26T13:13:44.000Z","2015-01-26T08:36:38.000Z","2051-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google will be the most used search engine for the web in 2050.",90,,"Chri","Chri",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-26T08:36:38.000Z","2015-01-26T08:36:38.000Z","2051-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google will be the most used search engine for the web in 2050.",25,,"Pablo","Chri","It's unclear whether 'search engines' as currently understood will even exist by 2050.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-10T22:17:18.000Z","2015-01-26T08:36:38.000Z","2051-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I personally will get coronavirus (as per my best guess if I had it; positive test not needed) by 2021",10,,"Bucky","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I personally will get coronavirus (as per my best guess if I had it; positive test not needed) by 2021",30,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I personally will get coronavirus (as per my best guess if I had it; positive test not needed) by 2021",10,,"mattvdm","Scott Alexander","",,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T10:12:17.849Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I personally will get coronavirus (as per my best guess if I had it; positive test not needed) by 2021",20,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""Sell to 20% at least, and also what the hell? Is this Scott thinking he will be paranoid and think he had the virus when he hasn’t had the virus? Let’s set that aside for now and assume Scott would simply get an antibody test in such a world, which should be easy to get by December. So despite living in Berkeley, and being unusually scrupulous, he expects a 30% chance to personally be infected. That sounds a lot like he thinks there’s a mean infection rate for that area a lot above 30%. But he thinks we’re only 50% to have 300,000 deaths in the United States, which represents less than a 10% overall infection rate, and California is doing way better than other areas. This one doesn’t make sense to me, unless it’s implicitly endorsing a high probability that Covid-19 has a substantially-sub-1% IFR and a ton of mild cases, and even then it’s tough.""",,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"New Horizons mission will transmit strong evidence of subsurface ocean on Pluto.",25,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-01T23:12:36.000Z","2012-08-01T23:12:36.000Z","2016-11-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"New Horizons mission will transmit strong evidence of subsurface ocean on Pluto.",15,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-21T17:07:05.000Z","2012-08-01T23:12:36.000Z","2016-11-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"New Horizons mission will transmit strong evidence of subsurface ocean on Pluto.",5,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight","Discovery that Titan has thicker crust than previously thought forces a reevaluation of tidal friction estimates. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-12-04T19:16:19.000Z","2012-08-01T23:12:36.000Z","2016-11-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"New Horizons mission will transmit strong evidence of subsurface ocean on Pluto.",0,,"ndarringnorm","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-07T05:46:10.000Z","2012-08-01T23:12:36.000Z","2016-11-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"New Horizons mission will transmit strong evidence of subsurface ocean on Pluto.",63,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T02:00:36.000Z","2012-08-01T23:12:36.000Z","2016-11-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, general consensus is that we (April 2020 US) were underreacting",10,,"Bucky","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, general consensus is that we (April 2020 US) were underreacting",20,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, general consensus is that we (April 2020 US) were underreacting",40,,"mattvdm","Scott Alexander","",,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T10:11:43.153Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, general consensus is that we (April 2020 US) were underreacting",20,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""General consensus will be that we were reacting stupidly. We reacted wrong. That’s an easy call. The question is, will that be widely seen as an underreaction, an overreaction, something that’s neither, or will there be a lack of consensus? What does it take to get a ‘consensus’? Who counts?

My guess is that there flat out won’t be consensus. There will be an argument. Partisan lines will be drawn. The public and the scientists will have different interpretations. And there will be those who think we reacted in the wrong ways rather than too much or too little. We’re clearly underreacting in the sense that we are not doing enough to expand testing or tracing capacity, and we’re not doing enough experimentation or data collection, and we’re not doing enough to get vaccines ready quickly or prepare for potential variolation. I expect some of that to become part of the consensus view, to the extent one exists. I also presume we’re overreacting in the sense that some of our lockdown tactics are ineffective or even counterproductive, and I expect us to realize that too. And so on.

Then again, it could be that this is simple – if death counts are higher than we expect we’ll be thought of as having ‘underreacted’ whether or not that cashes out into action. If things are contained by July and there’s no second wave, the ‘consensus’ will be that we ‘overreacted’ regardless of whether or not that makes any sense. That’s another way to look at this.

I don’t think we can be seen as by consensus overreacting unless things get contained and stay contained soon, and don’t see that as especially likely, so I’m going to sell the overreacting contract down to 30%, but stop there because people are bad at such things and find ways to rewrite history to suit their narratives. I’m going to hold the 20% on underreacting, because I expect things to be worse than the current general expectation, but I don’t see how doing more similar things (“reacting more”) is going to look like a great alternative. But it’s all murky.""",,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""By the middle of the 21st century, a team of fully autonomous humanoid robot soccer players shall win a soccer game, complying with the official rules of FIFA, against the winner of the most recent World Cup."" - Robocup mission statement",30,,"Pablo","benwr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-14T12:06:13.000Z","2015-01-11T23:53:17.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""By the middle of the 21st century, a team of fully autonomous humanoid robot soccer players shall win a soccer game, complying with the official rules of FIFA, against the winner of the most recent World Cup."" - Robocup mission statement",94,,"themusicgod1","benwr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-08T16:55:56.000Z","2015-01-11T23:53:17.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""By the middle of the 21st century, a team of fully autonomous humanoid robot soccer players shall win a soccer game, complying with the official rules of FIFA, against the winner of the most recent World Cup."" - Robocup mission statement",70,,"sweeneyrod","benwr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-12T13:49:33.000Z","2015-01-11T23:53:17.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""By the middle of the 21st century, a team of fully autonomous humanoid robot soccer players shall win a soccer game, complying with the official rules of FIFA, against the winner of the most recent World Cup."" - Robocup mission statement",75,,"benwr","benwr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-11T23:53:17.000Z","2015-01-11T23:53:17.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I am going to live for at least another 80 years",75,,"Mati Roy","Amélie_Roy","Reasons: Life expectancy is increasing by 3 months each year and I think it might increase faster in the future. You're young and take care of your health. You want to be cryonically frozen. You live in Canada.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-08T06:06:57.000Z","2014-02-07T20:34:03.000Z","2094-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"I am going to live for at least another 80 years",65,,"Amélie_Roy","Amélie_Roy","I will be cryionited ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-07T20:34:32.000Z","2014-02-07T20:34:03.000Z","2094-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"I am going to live for at least another 80 years",60,,"Amélie_Roy","Amélie_Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-07T20:34:03.000Z","2014-02-07T20:34:03.000Z","2094-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"I am going to live for at least another 80 years",15,,"Rowan93","Amélie_Roy","Cryonics is unlikely to work (although better than nothing), life expectancy increases aren't exactly representative of your own likely lifespan, and currently very few people live to what I assume is ~100 years of age.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-10T13:41:36.000Z","2014-02-07T20:34:03.000Z","2094-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"I am going to live for at least another 80 years",15,,"Michael Dickens","Amélie_Roy","I don't know how old you currently are but I'm guessing 20-30.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-08T00:46:14.000Z","2014-02-07T20:34:03.000Z","2094-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will not go on this website between January 1st 2040 and January 1st 2050.",94,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-26T18:52:34.000Z","2014-01-26T18:52:34.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will not go on this website between January 1st 2040 and January 1st 2050.",99,,"Pandster","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-28T00:33:25.000Z","2014-01-26T18:52:34.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will not go on this website between January 1st 2040 and January 1st 2050.",98,,"bobpage","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-10T02:24:26.000Z","2014-01-26T18:52:34.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will not go on this website between January 1st 2040 and January 1st 2050.",95,,"Michael Dickens","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-30T00:26:00.000Z","2014-01-26T18:52:34.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Blockchain-based social platform to come out by 2020, and become a Top 1000 site (https://medium.com/@ryanxcharles/fix-reddit-with-bitcoin-7da3f85fb9ba )",58,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea","It's going to look like a marketplace at first.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-14T06:44:49.000Z","2015-07-28T11:02:24.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Blockchain-based social platform to come out by 2020, and become a Top 1000 site (https://medium.com/@ryanxcharles/fix-reddit-with-bitcoin-7da3f85fb9ba )",10,,"Jayson Virissimo","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T22:45:47.000Z","2015-07-28T11:02:24.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Blockchain-based social platform to come out by 2020, and become a Top 1000 site (https://medium.com/@ryanxcharles/fix-reddit-with-bitcoin-7da3f85fb9ba )",15,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T12:14:05.000Z","2015-07-28T11:02:24.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Blockchain-based social platform to come out by 2020, and become a Top 1000 site (https://medium.com/@ryanxcharles/fix-reddit-with-bitcoin-7da3f85fb9ba )",35,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T11:02:24.000Z","2015-07-28T11:02:24.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Princesses Victoria of Sweden, Elisabeth of Belgium, Catharina-Amalia of the Netherlands, Ingrid Alexandra of Norway and Leonor of Spain all reign at the same time.",3,,"Baeboo","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-10-28T21:58:44.010Z","2019-10-26T14:48:27.699Z","2101-01-02T09:00:00.000Z"
"Princesses Victoria of Sweden, Elisabeth of Belgium, Catharina-Amalia of the Netherlands, Ingrid Alexandra of Norway and Leonor of Spain all reign at the same time.",8,,"Baeboo","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-25T18:46:52.161Z","2019-10-26T14:48:27.699Z","2101-01-02T09:00:00.000Z"
"Princesses Victoria of Sweden, Elisabeth of Belgium, Catharina-Amalia of the Netherlands, Ingrid Alexandra of Norway and Leonor of Spain all reign at the same time.",50,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-10-26T14:48:27.705Z","2019-10-26T14:48:27.699Z","2101-01-02T09:00:00.000Z"
"Princesses Victoria of Sweden, Elisabeth of Belgium, Catharina-Amalia of the Netherlands, Ingrid Alexandra of Norway and Leonor of Spain all reign at the same time.",30,,"pranomostro","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-10-28T21:27:01.048Z","2019-10-26T14:48:27.699Z","2101-01-02T09:00:00.000Z"
"Princesses Victoria of Sweden, Elisabeth of Belgium, Catharina-Amalia of the Netherlands, Ingrid Alexandra of Norway and Leonor of Spain all reign at the same time.",18,,"Tanya_21@hotmail.com","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-18T02:54:23.998Z","2019-10-26T14:48:27.699Z","2101-01-02T09:00:00.000Z"
"Princesses Victoria of Sweden, Elisabeth of Belgium, Catharina-Amalia of the Netherlands, Ingrid Alexandra of Norway and Leonor of Spain all reign at the same time.",4,,"Baeboo","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-21T03:50:36.300Z","2019-10-26T14:48:27.699Z","2101-01-02T09:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Brazilian citizenship.",2,,"PipFoweraker","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-06T20:32:15.000Z","2016-01-06T20:32:15.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Brazilian citizenship.",0,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-10T04:43:43.000Z","2016-01-06T20:32:15.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Brazilian citizenship.",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-08T08:03:13.000Z","2016-01-06T20:32:15.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Brazilian citizenship.",8,,"themusicgod1","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-15T16:02:15.000Z","2016-01-06T20:32:15.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"OpenAI will announce that it's hit its 100X returns cap for an investor (or investor round).",0,,"Baeboo","krazemon",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-24T04:21:47.797Z","2019-05-22T12:48:21.948Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"OpenAI will announce that it's hit its 100X returns cap for an investor (or investor round).",1,,"krazemon","krazemon",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-22T12:48:21.964Z","2019-05-22T12:48:21.948Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"OpenAI will announce that it's hit its 100X returns cap for an investor (or investor round).",1,,"pranomostro","krazemon",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-27T20:41:52.642Z","2019-05-22T12:48:21.948Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"OpenAI will announce that it's hit its 100X returns cap for an investor (or investor round).",0,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","krazemon",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-22T16:59:08.409Z","2019-05-22T12:48:21.948Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Gwern is Jim Babcock.",66,,"deleteyourbrain","deleteyourbrain",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-29T17:16:02.812Z","2019-04-29T17:16:02.806Z","2025-04-28T21:06:00.000Z"
"Gwern is Jim Babcock.",1,,"JoshuaZ","deleteyourbrain",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-01T21:50:16.655Z","2019-04-29T17:16:02.806Z","2025-04-28T21:06:00.000Z"
"Gwern is Jim Babcock.",0,,"Baeboo","deleteyourbrain",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-01T02:25:08.707Z","2019-04-29T17:16:02.806Z","2025-04-28T21:06:00.000Z"
"Gwern is Jim Babcock.",2,,"pranomostro","deleteyourbrain",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-30T22:16:06.588Z","2019-04-29T17:16:02.806Z","2025-04-28T21:06:00.000Z"
"A coronavirus vaccine has been approved for general use and given to at least 10,000 people somewhere in the First World by 2021",40,,"Bucky","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"A coronavirus vaccine has been approved for general use and given to at least 10,000 people somewhere in the First World by 2021",40,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""Sell to 40% but stop there. If you had asked me this before Oxford announced it had a timeline that would make this work I would have sold down to 20%. The first world has proven time and again it is unwilling to do such things. Civilization made it clear it would rather die, in both economic and literal terms, before bending its rules in such ways. But perhaps a way has or can be found, and I do expect us to be in dire need. 10,000 people isn’t a lot so this could be one small country defying the general suicide consensus and doing it anyway. Indeed do many things come to pass. Note that I wouldn’t buy this unless it was much lower than 40%.""",,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"A coronavirus vaccine has been approved for general use and given to at least 10,000 people somewhere in the First World by 2021",50,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"A coronavirus vaccine has been approved for general use and given to at least 10,000 people somewhere in the First World by 2021",98,,"fzeidler","Scott Alexander","",,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-04T13:00:32.159Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, autism rates in the US will surpass 50% for children. ",0,,"tedks","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-04T03:12:53.000Z","2014-12-30T21:33:57.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, autism rates in the US will surpass 50% for children. ",5,,"Ben Doherty","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-03T10:40:44.000Z","2014-12-30T21:33:57.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, autism rates in the US will surpass 50% for children. ",1,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-30T21:33:57.000Z","2014-12-30T21:33:57.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, autism rates in the US will surpass 50% for children. ",1,,"sweeneyrod","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-31T19:46:18.000Z","2014-12-30T21:33:57.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Most human conception occurs via IVF/Embryo Selection",32,,"Paul.David.Carr","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-27T18:30:46.000Z","2016-05-08T19:51:28.000Z","2041-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Most human conception occurs via IVF/Embryo Selection",41,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-08T20:37:52.000Z","2016-05-08T19:51:28.000Z","2041-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Most human conception occurs via IVF/Embryo Selection",5,,"BaesTheorem","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-21T20:58:42.000Z","2016-05-08T19:51:28.000Z","2041-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Most human conception occurs via IVF/Embryo Selection",35,,"unexpectedEOF","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-21T18:31:26.000Z","2016-05-08T19:51:28.000Z","2041-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Most human conception occurs via IVF/Embryo Selection",43,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-08T19:51:28.000Z","2016-05-08T19:51:28.000Z","2041-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Minecraft to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-15T21:06:32.000Z","2015-07-15T21:06:32.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Minecraft to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",38,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-27T14:18:51.000Z","2015-07-15T21:06:32.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Minecraft to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",20,,"Medea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-01T22:32:41.000Z","2015-07-15T21:06:32.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Minecraft to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",40,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea","Even with oculus rift, this seems unlikely.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-04T06:14:58.000Z","2015-07-15T21:06:32.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Minecraft to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",40,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-27T07:47:01.000Z","2015-07-15T21:06:32.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"First directly brain-controlled internet post will be announced within the next 5 years.",53,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight","running out of time, but doable.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T06:06:47.000Z","2012-08-01T23:37:39.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"First directly brain-controlled internet post will be announced within the next 5 years.",75,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-01T23:37:39.000Z","2012-08-01T23:37:39.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"First directly brain-controlled internet post will be announced within the next 5 years.",45,,"RandomThinker","NathanMcKnight","Someone can always do it as a publicity stunt.  I don't think it's technologically impossible.  

Any Stephen Hawkings post might qualify as well soon.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-02T00:29:10.000Z","2012-08-01T23:37:39.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"First directly brain-controlled internet post will be announced within the next 5 years.",80,,"Porejide","NathanMcKnight","Assuming you mean ""read from a non-invasive brain signal and/or sub-dural electrode"" ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-05T22:26:42.000Z","2012-08-01T23:37:39.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Roe v. Wade will not celebrate a 50th anniversary.”",55,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T14:12:24.684Z","2010-08-02T06:28:21.000Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Roe v. Wade will not celebrate a 50th anniversary.”",40,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-02T06:28:21.000Z","2010-08-02T06:28:21.000Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Roe v. Wade will not celebrate a 50th anniversary.”",30,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T15:10:22.113Z","2010-08-02T06:28:21.000Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Roe v. Wade will not celebrate a 50th anniversary.”",68,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:19:02.000Z","2010-08-02T06:28:21.000Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will not concede the election before inauguration day.",60,,"seanbas","seanbas",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-14T14:52:26.286Z","2020-11-14T14:52:26.280Z","2021-01-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will not concede the election before inauguration day.",38,,"Baeboo","seanbas",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-14T19:28:40.205Z","2020-11-14T14:52:26.280Z","2021-01-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will not concede the election before inauguration day.",30,,"true","seanbas",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T10:47:21.669Z","2020-11-14T14:52:26.280Z","2021-01-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will not concede the election before inauguration day.",70,,"sty.silver","seanbas",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-14T15:12:13.669Z","2020-11-14T14:52:26.280Z","2021-01-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Chinese citizenship.",30,,"PipFoweraker","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-06T20:33:17.000Z","2016-01-06T20:33:17.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Chinese citizenship.",61,,"themusicgod1","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-15T00:25:22.000Z","2016-01-06T20:33:17.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Chinese citizenship.",70,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-08T06:40:30.888Z","2016-01-06T20:33:17.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Chinese citizenship.",30,,"two2thehead","PipFoweraker","NOW we are talking. The above probabilities (30 vs 27 percent) have it right imo. Somewhere between 20 and 30 percent, leaning towards between 25 and 30 percent.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-15T00:16:14.000Z","2016-01-06T20:33:17.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Chinese citizenship.",27,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-10T03:54:27.000Z","2016-01-06T20:33:17.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Critical failure of the Three Gorges Dam by 2030",75,,"chemotaxis101","jamesrom",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-26T18:23:11.049Z","2020-09-29T11:50:59.423Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Critical failure of the Three Gorges Dam by 2030",85,,"jamesrom","jamesrom",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-29T11:50:59.427Z","2020-09-29T11:50:59.423Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Critical failure of the Three Gorges Dam by 2030",30,,"Baeboo","jamesrom",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-26T21:54:18.226Z","2020-09-29T11:50:59.423Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Critical failure of the Three Gorges Dam by 2030",23,,"finback","jamesrom",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-27T16:47:11.036Z","2020-09-29T11:50:59.423Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"erowid.org still exists with its full archive available to the public, on May 1 2024",87,,"finback","finback",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-18T16:41:19.897Z","2020-09-18T16:41:19.888Z","2024-05-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"erowid.org still exists with its full archive available to the public, on May 1 2024",70,,"henryaj","finback",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-20T13:10:05.741Z","2020-09-18T16:41:19.888Z","2024-05-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"erowid.org still exists with its full archive available to the public, on May 1 2024",70,,"batemancapital","finback",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-27T03:09:46.875Z","2020-09-18T16:41:19.888Z","2024-05-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"erowid.org still exists with its full archive available to the public, on May 1 2024",70,,"avi","finback",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-14T06:35:28.735Z","2020-09-18T16:41:19.888Z","2024-05-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"40M",0,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T15:07:54.165Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.162Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"40M",0,,"chemotaxis101","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T18:04:47.396Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.162Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"40M",1,,"Baeboo","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T20:08:49.500Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.162Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"40M",1,,"nortriptyline2","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T17:20:08.291Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.162Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2061 science and technology will meet all the essential requirements for interstellar space travel based on the embryo space colonization concept; the core element of this prediction is the cryopreservation of human embryos allowing them to survive fo",55,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T14:13:58.541Z","2010-08-02T06:25:04.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2061 science and technology will meet all the essential requirements for interstellar space travel based on the embryo space colonization concept; the core element of this prediction is the cryopreservation of human embryos allowing them to survive fo",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:17:56.000Z","2010-08-02T06:25:04.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2061 science and technology will meet all the essential requirements for interstellar space travel based on the embryo space colonization concept; the core element of this prediction is the cryopreservation of human embryos allowing them to survive fo",40,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-02T06:25:04.000Z","2010-08-02T06:25:04.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2061 science and technology will meet all the essential requirements for interstellar space travel based on the embryo space colonization concept; the core element of this prediction is the cryopreservation of human embryos allowing them to survive fo",40,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T15:17:07.575Z","2010-08-02T06:25:04.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Greek military or goverment will not sign any document of surrender, pay reparations or lose any territory as a result of military action within the next two decades.",90,,"Madplatypus","Madplatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-12T06:07:46.000Z","2015-07-12T06:07:46.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Greek military or goverment will not sign any document of surrender, pay reparations or lose any territory as a result of military action within the next two decades.",95,,"jbeshir","Madplatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-12T06:10:47.000Z","2015-07-12T06:07:46.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Greek military or goverment will not sign any document of surrender, pay reparations or lose any territory as a result of military action within the next two decades.",75,,"JoshuaZ","Madplatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-12T12:41:46.000Z","2015-07-12T06:07:46.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Greek military or goverment will not sign any document of surrender, pay reparations or lose any territory as a result of military action within the next two decades.",84,,"pranomostro","Madplatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T22:48:27.000Z","2015-07-12T06:07:46.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"20M",0,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T15:07:54.158Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.155Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"20M",2,,"nortriptyline2","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T17:19:53.674Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.155Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"20M",0,,"chemotaxis101","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T18:04:28.919Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.155Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"20M",1,,"Baeboo","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T20:08:24.433Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.155Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"Egypt, Malaysia and Indonesia in top 20 largest world economies --HSBC",6,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T01:49:20.000Z","2011-08-13T00:46:53.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Egypt, Malaysia and Indonesia in top 20 largest world economies --HSBC",25,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-13T00:46:53.000Z","2011-08-13T00:46:53.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Egypt, Malaysia and Indonesia in top 20 largest world economies --HSBC",15,,"pranomostro","gwern","Currently only indonesia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)).",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-03T21:59:34.864Z","2011-08-13T00:46:53.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Egypt, Malaysia and Indonesia in top 20 largest world economies --HSBC",11,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-04T03:59:40.390Z","2011-08-13T00:46:53.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Indian citizenship.",10,,"PipFoweraker","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-06T20:34:06.000Z","2016-01-06T20:34:06.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Indian citizenship.",9,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-10T04:34:53.000Z","2016-01-06T20:34:06.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Indian citizenship.",5,,"two2thehead","PipFoweraker","Meh. Large population. Large economy. But a lot of work needs to be done vis-a-vis child poverty and malnutrition.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-15T00:37:44.000Z","2016-01-06T20:34:06.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Indian citizenship.",42,,"themusicgod1","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-15T16:02:58.000Z","2016-01-06T20:34:06.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“That the average level of innovation between 2025 and 2035 exceeds the average level of innovation of the past 5 years (2002-2007.) I suggest using metrics as determined and published by the US Dept of Commerce, Economics & Statistics Administration as d",65,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T15:21:33.387Z","2010-08-02T06:20:20.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“That the average level of innovation between 2025 and 2035 exceeds the average level of innovation of the past 5 years (2002-2007.) I suggest using metrics as determined and published by the US Dept of Commerce, Economics & Statistics Administration as d",60,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T14:14:52.830Z","2010-08-02T06:20:20.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“That the average level of innovation between 2025 and 2035 exceeds the average level of innovation of the past 5 years (2002-2007.) I suggest using metrics as determined and published by the US Dept of Commerce, Economics & Statistics Administration as d",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:15:49.000Z","2010-08-02T06:20:20.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“That the average level of innovation between 2025 and 2035 exceeds the average level of innovation of the past 5 years (2002-2007.) I suggest using metrics as determined and published by the US Dept of Commerce, Economics & Statistics Administration as d",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-02T06:20:20.000Z","2010-08-02T06:20:20.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Brazil only 7th largest world economy or smaller in 2050 --HSBC",70,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-13T00:47:08.000Z","2011-08-13T00:47:08.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Brazil only 7th largest world economy or smaller in 2050 --HSBC",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T01:49:48.000Z","2011-08-13T00:47:08.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Brazil only 7th largest world economy or smaller in 2050 --HSBC",60,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-03T21:57:58.765Z","2011-08-13T00:47:08.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Brazil only 7th largest world economy or smaller in 2050 --HSBC",60,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-04T04:41:20.632Z","2011-08-13T00:47:08.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"10M",1,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T15:07:54.149Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.146Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"10M",20,,"nortriptyline2","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T17:19:24.602Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.146Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"10M",2,,"chemotaxis101","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T18:04:08.997Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.146Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"10M",3,,"Baeboo","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T20:08:13.163Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.146Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050 the majority of music will be ""generated"" and not recorded. This will include vocals.",40,,"tylercurtis","msevrens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-31T04:16:36.000Z","2014-10-28T22:42:36.000Z","2050-10-28T22:42:36.000Z"
"By 2050 the majority of music will be ""generated"" and not recorded. This will include vocals.",40,,"erikbjare","msevrens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-30T21:36:27.000Z","2014-10-28T22:42:36.000Z","2050-10-28T22:42:36.000Z"
"By 2050 the majority of music will be ""generated"" and not recorded. This will include vocals.",20,,"RobertLumley","msevrens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-29T05:39:19.000Z","2014-10-28T22:42:36.000Z","2050-10-28T22:42:36.000Z"
"By 2050 the majority of music will be ""generated"" and not recorded. This will include vocals.",70,,"msevrens","msevrens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-28T22:42:36.000Z","2014-10-28T22:42:36.000Z","2050-10-28T22:42:36.000Z"
"The Hubble Telescope will deorbit before the end of 2025",50,,"gwern","JoshuaZ","on the other hand, sometimes NASA massively underestimates how well things will go - look at some of the Martian rovers",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-19T03:14:37.000Z","2011-08-18T20:52:05.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Hubble Telescope will deorbit before the end of 2025",65,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-18T20:52:05.000Z","2011-08-18T20:52:05.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Hubble Telescope will deorbit before the end of 2025",47,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T01:55:05.000Z","2011-08-18T20:52:05.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Hubble Telescope will deorbit before the end of 2025",40,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-03T21:50:21.981Z","2011-08-18T20:52:05.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will win more gold medals than India in 2040",65,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-15T05:42:58.000Z","2012-08-15T05:42:58.000Z","2040-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will win more gold medals than India in 2040",65,,"Emanuel Rylke","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-15T09:07:50.000Z","2012-08-15T05:42:58.000Z","2040-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will win more gold medals than India in 2040",20,,"Raahul_Kumar","RandomThinker","As Fareed says, at that point the demographic transition will have occured, Bharat will have a much younger population, and higher per capita income, both relevant for gold medals.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-19T08:26:42.000Z","2012-08-15T05:42:58.000Z","2040-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"China will win more gold medals than India in 2040",47,,"themusicgod1","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T06:14:21.000Z","2012-08-15T05:42:58.000Z","2040-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"5M",5,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T15:07:54.142Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.139Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"5M",50,,"nortriptyline2","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T17:17:29.897Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.139Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"5M",10,,"chemotaxis101","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T18:03:50.836Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.139Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"5M",8,,"Baeboo","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T20:08:00.188Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.139Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"A predictive intelligence will emerge in the year 2032 to accuse me of engaging in prediction-based warfare.",0,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","SmoothPorcupine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-17T05:44:44.000Z","2015-10-18T18:22:42.000Z","2032-07-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"A predictive intelligence will emerge in the year 2032 to accuse me of engaging in prediction-based warfare.",0,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","SmoothPorcupine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-17T05:44:34.000Z","2015-10-18T18:22:42.000Z","2032-07-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"A predictive intelligence will emerge in the year 2032 to accuse me of engaging in prediction-based warfare.",0,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","SmoothPorcupine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-17T05:44:29.000Z","2015-10-18T18:22:42.000Z","2032-07-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"A predictive intelligence will emerge in the year 2032 to accuse me of engaging in prediction-based warfare.",0,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","SmoothPorcupine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-17T05:44:22.000Z","2015-10-18T18:22:42.000Z","2032-07-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"A predictive intelligence will emerge in the year 2032 to accuse me of engaging in prediction-based warfare.",0,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","SmoothPorcupine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-20T05:55:38.000Z","2015-10-18T18:22:42.000Z","2032-07-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"A predictive intelligence will emerge in the year 2032 to accuse me of engaging in prediction-based warfare.",0,,"Houshalter","SmoothPorcupine","No.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-19T18:56:13.000Z","2015-10-18T18:22:42.000Z","2032-07-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"A predictive intelligence will emerge in the year 2032 to accuse me of engaging in prediction-based warfare.",0,,"JoshuaZ","SmoothPorcupine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-18T19:36:16.000Z","2015-10-18T18:22:42.000Z","2032-07-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"A predictive intelligence will emerge in the year 2032 to accuse me of engaging in prediction-based warfare.",30,,"SmoothPorcupine","SmoothPorcupine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-18T18:22:42.000Z","2015-10-18T18:22:42.000Z","2032-07-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will be banned on Twitter (@akarlin88)",15,,"emilowk","akarlin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-30T00:43:11.526Z","2020-06-23T16:00:51.389Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will be banned on Twitter (@akarlin88)",5,,"azatris","akarlin","Assuming permaban, not suspension.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-08T17:06:28.613Z","2020-06-23T16:00:51.389Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will be banned on Twitter (@akarlin88)",25,,"chemotaxis101","akarlin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-08T09:56:16.385Z","2020-06-23T16:00:51.389Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will be banned on Twitter (@akarlin88)",20,,"akarlin","akarlin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-23T16:00:51.397Z","2020-06-23T16:00:51.389Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Noam Chomsky to become a centenarian",20,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T03:10:34.000Z","2015-07-13T03:10:34.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Noam Chomsky to become a centenarian",43,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-22T04:12:12.000Z","2015-07-13T03:10:34.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Noam Chomsky to become a centenarian",15,,"EloiseRosen","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-14T01:34:31.000Z","2015-07-13T03:10:34.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Noam Chomsky to become a centenarian",5,,"RoryS","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-14T20:42:45.000Z","2015-07-13T03:10:34.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding German citizenship.",3,,"PipFoweraker","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-06T20:35:31.000Z","2016-01-06T20:35:31.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding German citizenship.",8,,"themusicgod1","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-15T16:00:41.000Z","2016-01-06T20:35:31.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding German citizenship.",1,,"NickN","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-30T17:55:49.093Z","2016-01-06T20:35:31.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding German citizenship.",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-08T08:03:48.000Z","2016-01-06T20:35:31.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computer Scientists obsolete",0,,"Peteris","themusicgod1","Robot or human computer scientists will definitely exist.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-06T09:29:31.000Z","2016-04-27T08:26:21.000Z","2036-04-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computer Scientists obsolete",0,,"silacoid","themusicgod1","while commercial computing is mostly bedroom level crap already, if one can do research in how penguins falls when viewing different kinds of helicopters, there will always be room for computer science (which actually is math, not science)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-01T19:20:00.000Z","2016-04-27T08:26:21.000Z","2036-04-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computer Scientists obsolete",40,,"Paul.David.Carr","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-29T17:40:07.000Z","2016-04-27T08:26:21.000Z","2036-04-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computer Scientists obsolete",0,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-27T08:26:22.000Z","2016-04-27T08:26:21.000Z","2036-04-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"World of Warcraft to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",5,,"silacoid","InquilineKea","It's had its day. It's been more resilient than expected, but unless they do something more impressive than the last 3-4 expansions, or open a new market, they'll continue to lose subscribers...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T10:02:30.000Z","2015-07-13T03:11:23.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"World of Warcraft to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",5,,"sdr","InquilineKea","Expansion packs fail to stick: http://www.statista.com/statistics/276601/number-of-world-of-warcraft-subscribers-by-quarter/   ; massive competition from the free-to-play market with reduced time investments; very not likely",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-14T20:32:43.000Z","2015-07-13T03:11:23.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"World of Warcraft to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",30,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T03:11:23.000Z","2015-07-13T03:11:23.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"World of Warcraft to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",10,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T10:59:22.000Z","2015-07-13T03:11:23.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"World of Warcraft to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",38,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-10T00:32:47.000Z","2015-07-13T03:11:23.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“THE world?s slowest concert, which began on September 5, 2001 and which is scheduled to take 639 years, will still be performed at its half-time interval, wich is planned for the year 2319.”",5,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-01T13:05:43.000Z","2010-08-01T13:05:43.000Z","2319-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“THE world?s slowest concert, which began on September 5, 2001 and which is scheduled to take 639 years, will still be performed at its half-time interval, wich is planned for the year 2319.”",5,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:17:59.525Z","2010-08-01T13:05:43.000Z","2319-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“THE world?s slowest concert, which began on September 5, 2001 and which is scheduled to take 639 years, will still be performed at its half-time interval, wich is planned for the year 2319.”",3,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:10:06.000Z","2010-08-01T13:05:43.000Z","2319-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“THE world?s slowest concert, which began on September 5, 2001 and which is scheduled to take 639 years, will still be performed at its half-time interval, wich is planned for the year 2319.”",1,,"Laurent Bossavit","gwern","Be more interesting to make some predictions for when it will shut down.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-06T06:49:26.000Z","2010-08-01T13:05:43.000Z","2319-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By year 2036, there will be at least 1 man alive in the U.S. who has fathered 150 children.”",80,,"deleteyourbrain","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T01:52:53.840Z","2010-08-01T12:59:09.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By year 2036, there will be at least 1 man alive in the U.S. who has fathered 150 children.”",54,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T23:59:49.000Z","2010-08-01T12:59:09.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By year 2036, there will be at least 1 man alive in the U.S. who has fathered 150 children.”",15,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:39:49.040Z","2010-08-01T12:59:09.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By year 2036, there will be at least 1 man alive in the U.S. who has fathered 150 children.”",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-01T12:59:11.000Z","2010-08-01T12:59:09.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Facebook to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",50,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T23:21:32.000Z","2015-07-13T10:53:27.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Facebook to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T10:53:27.000Z","2015-07-13T10:53:27.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Facebook to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",60,,"David","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-19T13:34:53.000Z","2015-07-13T10:53:27.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Facebook to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",35,,"Chri","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-19T17:16:24.000Z","2015-07-13T10:53:27.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"2.5M",20,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T15:07:54.134Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.130Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"2.5M",18,,"Baeboo","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T20:07:46.090Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.130Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"2.5M",67,,"nortriptyline2","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T17:16:54.886Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.130Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"2.5M",30,,"chemotaxis101","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T18:03:27.170Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.130Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding UK citizenship.",1,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-10T04:43:29.000Z","2016-01-06T20:36:19.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding UK citizenship.",8,,"themusicgod1","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-15T16:01:25.000Z","2016-01-06T20:36:19.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding UK citizenship.",3,,"PipFoweraker","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-06T20:36:19.000Z","2016-01-06T20:36:19.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding UK citizenship.",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-06T21:55:00.000Z","2016-01-06T20:36:19.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding citizenship from a country not already listed, and/or all other catchall outcomes.",2,,"PipFoweraker","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-06T20:37:01.000Z","2016-01-06T20:37:01.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding citizenship from a country not already listed, and/or all other catchall outcomes.",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","PipFoweraker","No one is going to Mars.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-06T21:54:48.000Z","2016-01-06T20:37:01.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding citizenship from a country not already listed, and/or all other catchall outcomes.",2,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","PipFoweraker","JoshuaZ, the list is a reference to predictions 176632 thru 176641. See the ""View Predictions"" page.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-10T04:51:03.000Z","2016-01-06T20:37:01.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding citizenship from a country not already listed, and/or all other catchall outcomes.",90,,"chinawillfall","PipFoweraker","If any countries are still here the time that happens, then I'll eat my hat, considering the resources needed and how long in the future it will be.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-13T01:03:28.000Z","2016-01-06T20:37:01.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"1.25M",85,,"nortriptyline2","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T17:16:28.575Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.122Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"1.25M",50,,"chemotaxis101","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T18:02:58.608Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.122Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"1.25M",50,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T15:07:54.126Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.122Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"1.25M",33,,"Baeboo","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T20:03:27.224Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.122Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"“Hydrocarbon fuels will be the ""fuel of choice"" for personal transportation for the next 50 years”",100,,"deleteyourbrain","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-26T01:52:19.849Z","2010-08-01T13:00:41.000Z","2056-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Hydrocarbon fuels will be the ""fuel of choice"" for personal transportation for the next 50 years”",20,,"pranomostro","gwern","""for the next 50 years""? Or ""in 50 years""?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:38:50.787Z","2010-08-01T13:00:41.000Z","2056-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Hydrocarbon fuels will be the ""fuel of choice"" for personal transportation for the next 50 years”",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:00:29.000Z","2010-08-01T13:00:41.000Z","2056-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Hydrocarbon fuels will be the ""fuel of choice"" for personal transportation for the next 50 years”",30,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-01T13:00:41.000Z","2010-08-01T13:00:41.000Z","2056-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chance that ""AI safety basically [doesn't need] to be solved, we’ll just solve it by default unless we’re completely completely careless"".",20,,"mnoetel","Adam Gleave","","Note: 2100-01-01 is used as the default date as no resolution date was specified.","x risk,AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-18T00:44:04.742Z","2019-08-27T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Chance that ""AI safety basically [doesn't need] to be solved, we’ll just solve it by default unless we’re completely completely careless"".",25,,"Adam Gleave","Adam Gleave","Exact prediction: ""~25 - 30%""","Note: 2100-01-01 is used as the default date as no resolution date was specified.","x risk,AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-27T00:00:00.000Z","2019-08-27T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Chance that ""AI safety basically [doesn't need] to be solved, we’ll just solve it by default unless we’re completely completely careless"".",10,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Adam Gleave","","Note: 2100-01-01 is used as the default date as no resolution date was specified.","x risk,AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T09:02:08.678Z","2019-08-27T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Chance that ""AI safety basically [doesn't need] to be solved, we’ll just solve it by default unless we’re completely completely careless"".",40,,"Aidan Kierans","Adam Gleave","See my approach and notes on this question here:  https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3xACom5ytqBogcuad/chance-that-ai-safety-basically-doesn-t-need-to-be-solved-we","Note: 2100-01-01 is used as the default date as no resolution date was specified.","x risk,AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-08T23:01:00.178Z","2019-08-27T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"First physical sample returned from a Near Earth Asteroid.",64,,"JoshuaZ","Paul.David.Carr","sflicht, +Delays + cancellation also. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-28T12:59:22.000Z","2016-04-26T14:49:17.000Z","2025-06-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"First physical sample returned from a Near Earth Asteroid.",75,,"sflicht","Paul.David.Carr","Maybe too conservative -- OSIRIS-REx is to land September 2023. Does it really have a 25% chance of failure, even w/ extra 21 months leeway? But space is hard, so tough to be much more than 75% confident.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-28T03:57:47.000Z","2016-04-26T14:49:17.000Z","2025-06-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"First physical sample returned from a Near Earth Asteroid.",52,,"themusicgod1","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-26T17:14:31.000Z","2016-04-26T14:49:17.000Z","2025-06-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"First physical sample returned from a Near Earth Asteroid.",75,,"Paul.David.Carr","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-26T14:49:17.000Z","2016-04-26T14:49:17.000Z","2025-06-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"Facebook to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015",49,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T11:18:16.000Z","2015-07-13T11:18:16.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Facebook to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015",80,,"davatk","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-26T16:50:32.000Z","2015-07-13T11:18:16.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Facebook to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015",70,,"David","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-19T13:33:52.000Z","2015-07-13T11:18:16.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Facebook to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015",55,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T23:21:07.000Z","2015-07-13T11:18:16.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"George Martin won't finish ""A Song of Ice and Fire"" series until 2030",80,,"Stommelen","Stommelen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-10-01T12:58:52.000Z","2018-10-01T12:58:52.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"George Martin won't finish ""A Song of Ice and Fire"" series until 2030",40,,"pranomostro","Stommelen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-10-03T14:30:29.000Z","2018-10-01T12:58:52.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"George Martin won't finish ""A Song of Ice and Fire"" series until 2030",24,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Stommelen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-25T12:29:41.343Z","2018-10-01T12:58:52.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"George Martin won't finish ""A Song of Ice and Fire"" series until 2030",90,,"moyamo","Stommelen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-15T12:08:32.000Z","2018-10-01T12:58:52.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Switzerland to decommission all nuclear reactor by 2035.",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-25T17:52:42.000Z","2011-09-25T17:52:42.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Switzerland to decommission all nuclear reactor by 2035.",55,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-25T18:00:45.000Z","2011-09-25T17:52:42.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Switzerland to decommission all nuclear reactor by 2035.",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T02:56:00.000Z","2011-09-25T17:52:42.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Switzerland to decommission all nuclear reactor by 2035.",60,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:30:10.082Z","2011-09-25T17:52:42.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Switzerland to decommission all nuclear reactor by 2035.",56,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T20:47:34.000Z","2011-09-25T17:52:42.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Mouse, rat, rabbit, or other small mammal successfully revived from cryopreservation before 2100",80,,"Medea","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-09T12:08:32.000Z","2015-09-24T00:55:51.000Z","2100-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Mouse, rat, rabbit, or other small mammal successfully revived from cryopreservation before 2100",80,,"wizzwizz4","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-13T16:27:24.580Z","2015-09-24T00:55:51.000Z","2100-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Mouse, rat, rabbit, or other small mammal successfully revived from cryopreservation before 2100",75,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-27T18:36:25.000Z","2015-09-24T00:55:51.000Z","2100-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Mouse, rat, rabbit, or other small mammal successfully revived from cryopreservation before 2100",5,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-24T00:55:51.000Z","2015-09-24T00:55:51.000Z","2100-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Zhongguo(中国) will outspend the US on science by 2020",55,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-27T11:59:22.000Z","2015-09-27T07:15:26.000Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zhongguo(中国) will outspend the US on science by 2020",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-27T07:15:26.000Z","2015-09-27T07:15:26.000Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zhongguo(中国) will outspend the US on science by 2020",55,,"Josh Holland","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-02T10:59:11.000Z","2015-09-27T07:15:26.000Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zhongguo(中国) will outspend the US on science by 2020",50,,"EloiseRosen","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-28T20:17:56.000Z","2015-09-27T07:15:26.000Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"RuPay (रूपे) and China UnionPay (中国银联) will surpass Visa and Mastercard as a payment network. 
",70,,"Josh Holland","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-07T09:05:26.000Z","2015-10-07T01:04:25.000Z","2025-05-28T08:00:00.000Z"
"RuPay (रूपे) and China UnionPay (中国银联) will surpass Visa and Mastercard as a payment network. 
",75,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-07T01:51:42.000Z","2015-10-07T01:04:25.000Z","2025-05-28T08:00:00.000Z"
"RuPay (रूपे) and China UnionPay (中国银联) will surpass Visa and Mastercard as a payment network. 
",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-07T01:04:25.000Z","2015-10-07T01:04:25.000Z","2025-05-28T08:00:00.000Z"
"RuPay (रूपे) and China UnionPay (中国银联) will surpass Visa and Mastercard as a payment network. 
",60,,"daniel74f","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-07T18:02:23.000Z","2015-10-07T01:04:25.000Z","2025-05-28T08:00:00.000Z"
"""In other words, I predict that the actual warming of the lower troposphere from 1990 to 2100, as measured by satellites, will be less than 1.94 degrees Celsius.""",40,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-15T02:52:40.068Z","2010-07-30T09:08:56.000Z","2101-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In other words, I predict that the actual warming of the lower troposphere from 1990 to 2100, as measured by satellites, will be less than 1.94 degrees Celsius.""",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T09:08:56.000Z","2010-07-30T09:08:56.000Z","2101-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In other words, I predict that the actual warming of the lower troposphere from 1990 to 2100, as measured by satellites, will be less than 1.94 degrees Celsius.""",40,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:43:19.485Z","2010-07-30T09:08:56.000Z","2101-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"""In other words, I predict that the actual warming of the lower troposphere from 1990 to 2100, as measured by satellites, will be less than 1.94 degrees Celsius.""",8,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T23:53:08.000Z","2010-07-30T09:08:56.000Z","2101-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Hypersonic airliners are entering [commercial] service""",15,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-25T18:32:49.000Z","2011-09-25T18:32:49.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Hypersonic airliners are entering [commercial] service""",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T03:00:45.000Z","2011-09-25T18:32:49.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Hypersonic airliners are entering [commercial] service""",25,,"Robert Kosten","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-04T20:24:21.000Z","2011-09-25T18:32:49.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Hypersonic airliners are entering [commercial] service""",10,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:28:47.486Z","2011-09-25T18:32:49.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2050 most geologists will agree that most of earth's oil and gas reserves were not produced by decaying plants.”",2,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-15T03:06:29.823Z","2010-07-30T05:53:48.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2050 most geologists will agree that most of earth's oil and gas reserves were not produced by decaying plants.”",5,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:28:51.671Z","2010-07-30T05:53:48.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2050 most geologists will agree that most of earth's oil and gas reserves were not produced by decaying plants.”",30,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T05:53:48.000Z","2010-07-30T05:53:48.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2050 most geologists will agree that most of earth's oil and gas reserves were not produced by decaying plants.”",1,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T19:20:56.631Z","2010-07-30T05:53:48.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2050 most geologists will agree that most of earth's oil and gas reserves were not produced by decaying plants.”",1,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-24T18:00:53.000Z","2010-07-30T05:53:48.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2028, we will have seen a spate of articles (say more than 5) discussing law enforcement's concern that self-driving cars have reduced their ability to apprehend criminals, and municipalities' concern that their revenue has dropped.",74,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-07T17:10:32.000Z","2016-01-07T17:10:32.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2028, we will have seen a spate of articles (say more than 5) discussing law enforcement's concern that self-driving cars have reduced their ability to apprehend criminals, and municipalities' concern that their revenue has dropped.",70,,"Medea","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-08T19:15:25.000Z","2016-01-07T17:10:32.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2028, we will have seen a spate of articles (say more than 5) discussing law enforcement's concern that self-driving cars have reduced their ability to apprehend criminals, and municipalities' concern that their revenue has dropped.",73,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-17T05:41:43.000Z","2016-01-07T17:10:32.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2028, we will have seen a spate of articles (say more than 5) discussing law enforcement's concern that self-driving cars have reduced their ability to apprehend criminals, and municipalities' concern that their revenue has dropped.",10,,"elecnix","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-28T17:47:34.000Z","2016-01-07T17:10:32.000Z","2028-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, there has been a Third AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such).",40,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, there has been a Third AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such).",20,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo","",,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T09:01:21.789Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, there has been a Third AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such).",40,,"Rick","Daniel Kokotajlo",,,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-10T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, there has been a Third AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such).",30,,"Timothy","Daniel Kokotajlo","Predictor note: 507",,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, there has been a Third AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such).",15,,"girish","Daniel Kokotajlo","",,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-08T06:02:16.978Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Confidence in democracy will continue dropping (as measured by FOA and Pew).",75,,"NickN","Ragnarok_Reverted",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-30T17:56:22.748Z","2020-08-30T16:39:42.867Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Confidence in democracy will continue dropping (as measured by FOA and Pew).",80,,"Ragnarok_Reverted","Ragnarok_Reverted",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-30T16:39:42.873Z","2020-08-30T16:39:42.867Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Confidence in democracy will continue dropping (as measured by FOA and Pew).",75,,"Bruno Parga","Ragnarok_Reverted",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T12:50:05.404Z","2020-08-30T16:39:42.867Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Confidence in democracy will continue dropping (as measured by FOA and Pew).",75,,"product","Ragnarok_Reverted",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-01T12:12:56.749Z","2020-08-30T16:39:42.867Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Number of web application developers to be higher in 2025 than 2015",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-17T01:45:52.000Z","2015-07-17T01:45:52.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Number of web application developers to be higher in 2025 than 2015",60,,"David","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-19T13:27:46.000Z","2015-07-17T01:45:52.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Number of web application developers to be higher in 2025 than 2015",62,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea","There's still another 4 billion to get connected to the web.  Lots of new developers needed 2 reach them.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T23:18:55.000Z","2015-07-17T01:45:52.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Number of web application developers to be higher in 2025 than 2015",85,,"davatk","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-26T16:49:30.000Z","2015-07-17T01:45:52.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“One hundred years from now the world's governments will formally and legally recognize the basic human right of mobility: a person may live anywhere on earth if they agree to obey local laws.”",55,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:32:50.524Z","2010-07-30T06:15:20.000Z","2103-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“One hundred years from now the world's governments will formally and legally recognize the basic human right of mobility: a person may live anywhere on earth if they agree to obey local laws.”",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T23:39:44.000Z","2010-07-30T06:15:20.000Z","2103-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“One hundred years from now the world's governments will formally and legally recognize the basic human right of mobility: a person may live anywhere on earth if they agree to obey local laws.”",35,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-02T14:50:32.000Z","2010-07-30T06:15:20.000Z","2103-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“One hundred years from now the world's governments will formally and legally recognize the basic human right of mobility: a person may live anywhere on earth if they agree to obey local laws.”",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T06:15:21.000Z","2010-07-30T06:15:20.000Z","2103-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2026 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125. ",51,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-15T21:17:29.000Z","2011-10-15T21:17:29.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2026 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125. ",10,,"gwern","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-17T15:48:08.000Z","2011-10-15T21:17:29.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2026 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125. ",5,,"fergus","JoshuaZ","This would require someone who is already 110 to live for another 15 years.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-22T06:59:02.000Z","2011-10-15T21:17:29.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2026 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125. ",35,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-07T16:25:17.000Z","2011-10-15T21:17:29.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2026 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125. ",5,,"gwern","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-07T18:15:21.000Z","2011-10-15T21:17:29.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2026 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125. ",2,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:19:51.382Z","2011-10-15T21:17:29.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2030 all surgical anesthesia will be administered and monitored by computers, with no need for professional medical supervision beyond the surgeon.”",25,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:23:04.221Z","2010-07-30T05:29:45.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2030 all surgical anesthesia will be administered and monitored by computers, with no need for professional medical supervision beyond the surgeon.”",5,,"Athrithalix","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-22T10:33:17.000Z","2010-07-30T05:29:45.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2030 all surgical anesthesia will be administered and monitored by computers, with no need for professional medical supervision beyond the surgeon.”",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern","Getting nurses unions to sign off on this is going to be a mess.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T23:28:36.000Z","2010-07-30T05:29:45.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2030 all surgical anesthesia will be administered and monitored by computers, with no need for professional medical supervision beyond the surgeon.”",20,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T05:29:45.000Z","2010-07-30T05:29:45.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"i am still alive",99,,"ioannes","themusicgod1","lol, +1 to Michael",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-12T01:22:09.000Z","2017-04-30T21:54:07.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"i am still alive",88,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-04-30T21:54:07.000Z","2017-04-30T21:54:07.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"i am still alive",94,,"Semenar","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-04-30T22:00:44.000Z","2017-04-30T21:54:07.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"i am still alive",84,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1","[nuclear war]",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-04-30T22:09:53.000Z","2017-04-30T21:54:07.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"i am still alive",99,,"Michael Dickens","themusicgod1","seriously this is in 7 months, where are you getting 84% from",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-11T23:20:01.000Z","2017-04-30T21:54:07.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Sean Spicer tweeted a bitcoin address",2,,"Paul.David.Carr","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-15T13:59:27.000Z","2017-05-02T20:32:26.000Z","2027-05-02T20:32:26.000Z"
"Sean Spicer tweeted a bitcoin address",80,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-02T20:32:26.000Z","2017-05-02T20:32:26.000Z","2027-05-02T20:32:26.000Z"
"Sean Spicer tweeted a bitcoin address",1,,"saturn","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-02T20:57:23.000Z","2017-05-02T20:32:26.000Z","2027-05-02T20:32:26.000Z"
"Sean Spicer tweeted a bitcoin address",1,,"bobpage","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-04T08:27:05.000Z","2017-05-02T20:32:26.000Z","2027-05-02T20:32:26.000Z"
"“The Bet: By 2050, we will receive intelligent signals from outside our solar system.”",2,,"Athrithalix","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-22T10:35:06.000Z","2010-07-30T05:20:46.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“The Bet: By 2050, we will receive intelligent signals from outside our solar system.”",3,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T23:22:14.000Z","2010-07-30T05:20:46.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“The Bet: By 2050, we will receive intelligent signals from outside our solar system.”",1,,"Grognor","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-06T19:44:49.000Z","2010-07-30T05:20:46.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“The Bet: By 2050, we will receive intelligent signals from outside our solar system.”",5,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T05:20:46.000Z","2010-07-30T05:20:46.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Fracking will be banned in the United States by 2024",32,,"themusicgod1","lisalister",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-20T11:30:48.000Z","2014-09-07T06:21:55.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Fracking will be banned in the United States by 2024",40,,"rebellionkid","lisalister","A federal ban would just be too economically destructive. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-08T08:16:50.000Z","2014-09-07T06:21:55.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Fracking will be banned in the United States by 2024",55,,"HonoreDB","lisalister",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-07T16:54:32.000Z","2014-09-07T06:21:55.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Fracking will be banned in the United States by 2024",80,,"lisalister","lisalister",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-07T06:21:55.000Z","2014-09-07T06:21:55.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Scientists will find life on Enceladus before 2020, this information will lead us to realize life is also plentiful in the universe in different forms. ",0,,"manfk","jprettner",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-19T02:53:34.000Z","2017-05-18T15:51:02.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Scientists will find life on Enceladus before 2020, this information will lead us to realize life is also plentiful in the universe in different forms. ",1,,"aseyfarth","jprettner",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-19T15:27:58.000Z","2017-05-18T15:51:02.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Scientists will find life on Enceladus before 2020, this information will lead us to realize life is also plentiful in the universe in different forms. ",100,,"jprettner","jprettner",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-18T15:51:02.000Z","2017-05-18T15:51:02.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Scientists will find life on Enceladus before 2020, this information will lead us to realize life is also plentiful in the universe in different forms. ",5,,"themusicgod1","jprettner",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-19T01:51:56.000Z","2017-05-18T15:51:02.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There exists a useful (but potentially informal) theory for what kinds of AI policies make the AU landscape ""spiky.""",70,,"adamShimi","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:21:37.290Z","2020-11-21T17:28:16.377Z","2100-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"There exists a useful (but potentially informal) theory for what kinds of AI policies make the AU landscape ""spiky.""",35,,"habryka","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T05:46:49.473Z","2020-11-21T17:28:16.377Z","2100-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"There exists a useful (but potentially informal) theory for what kinds of AI policies make the AU landscape ""spiky.""",50,,"Gurkenglas","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T04:25:53.781Z","2020-11-21T17:28:16.377Z","2100-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"There exists a useful (but potentially informal) theory for what kinds of AI policies make the AU landscape ""spiky.""",45,,"TurnTrout","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T18:09:31.448Z","2020-11-21T17:28:16.377Z","2100-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Malaysia will be a high income country by 2020.",30,,"feelfree3use","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-04T03:55:36.000Z","2016-03-03T11:27:27.000Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Malaysia will be a high income country by 2020.",97,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar","Malaysia's GDP per capita in 2014 was USD$11,307.1  --World Bank
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD. In 2 days they have revised upwards by 180 dollars!",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-05T09:26:18.000Z","2016-03-03T11:27:27.000Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Malaysia will be a high income country by 2020.",82,,"splorridge","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-03T13:30:07.000Z","2016-03-03T11:27:27.000Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Malaysia will be a high income country by 2020.",95,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-03T11:27:27.000Z","2016-03-03T11:27:27.000Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Malaysia will be a high income country by 2020.",81,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-03T11:52:25.000Z","2016-03-03T11:27:27.000Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the resumption of warfare, there will be <100,000 South Korean civilian casualties.",65,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-22T21:31:19.000Z","2011-10-22T21:31:18.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the resumption of warfare, there will be <100,000 South Korean civilian casualties.",60,,"Robert Kosten","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-25T17:59:31.000Z","2011-10-22T21:31:18.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the resumption of warfare, there will be <100,000 South Korean civilian casualties.",3,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T05:14:41.000Z","2011-10-22T21:31:18.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the resumption of warfare, there will be <100,000 South Korean civilian casualties.",67,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T21:09:14.565Z","2011-10-22T21:31:18.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within Pakistan or India.",5,,"Robert Kosten","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-25T17:59:16.000Z","2011-10-22T21:36:46.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within Pakistan or India.",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T05:14:24.000Z","2011-10-22T21:36:46.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within Pakistan or India.",35,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T21:09:02.547Z","2011-10-22T21:36:46.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within Pakistan or India.",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-22T21:36:46.000Z","2011-10-22T21:36:46.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within the Korean peninsula.",25,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-22T21:37:04.000Z","2011-10-22T21:37:04.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within the Korean peninsula.",10,,"Robert Kosten","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-25T17:59:06.000Z","2011-10-22T21:37:04.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within the Korean peninsula.",13,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T05:14:15.000Z","2011-10-22T21:37:04.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within the Korean peninsula.",12,,"pranomostro","gwern","The first? Any?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T21:08:47.519Z","2011-10-22T21:37:04.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within Japan.",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-22T21:37:16.000Z","2011-10-22T21:37:16.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within Japan.",1,,"Robert Kosten","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-25T17:58:54.000Z","2011-10-22T21:37:16.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within Japan.",15,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-30T17:34:10.000Z","2011-10-22T21:37:16.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within Japan.",5,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T21:08:24.384Z","2011-10-22T21:37:16.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"(Agreement) Non-obstruction mathematically encapsulates corrigibility’s benefits. ",74,,"adamShimi","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:21:17.073Z","2020-11-21T17:50:57.381Z","2100-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"(Agreement) Non-obstruction mathematically encapsulates corrigibility’s benefits. ",80,,"Gurkenglas","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T00:49:36.372Z","2020-11-21T17:50:57.381Z","2100-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"(Agreement) Non-obstruction mathematically encapsulates corrigibility’s benefits. ",85,,"TurnTrout","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T18:09:02.482Z","2020-11-21T17:50:57.381Z","2100-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"(Agreement) Non-obstruction mathematically encapsulates corrigibility’s benefits. ",10,,"rohinmshah","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-28T20:21:34.917Z","2020-11-21T17:50:57.381Z","2100-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"(Agreement) Corrigibility is an instrumental strategy for inducing non-obstruction in an AI.",95,,"adamShimi","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:20:06.392Z","2020-11-21T17:22:01.560Z","2100-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"(Agreement) Corrigibility is an instrumental strategy for inducing non-obstruction in an AI.",95,,"Gurkenglas","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T00:46:58.432Z","2020-11-21T17:22:01.560Z","2100-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"(Agreement) Corrigibility is an instrumental strategy for inducing non-obstruction in an AI.",99,,"Gurkenglas","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T00:46:12.551Z","2020-11-21T17:22:01.560Z","2100-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"(Agreement) Corrigibility is an instrumental strategy for inducing non-obstruction in an AI.",95,,"Gurkenglas","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T00:46:02.788Z","2020-11-21T17:22:01.560Z","2100-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"(Agreement) Corrigibility is an instrumental strategy for inducing non-obstruction in an AI.",95,,"TurnTrout","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T18:07:48.371Z","2020-11-21T17:22:01.560Z","2100-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch have a significant health emergency costing >$1500 out-of-pocket or >2 weeks of work in 2021?",5,,"Will K","Linch","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","Linch-Personal-Questions,health,US Medical Care System,covid-19,Personal","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T05:24:04.229Z","2020-11-28T22:52:43.095Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch have a significant health emergency costing >$1500 out-of-pocket or >2 weeks of work in 2021?",2,,"Peter H","Linch","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","Linch-Personal-Questions,health,US Medical Care System,covid-19,Personal","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T00:16:44.698Z","2020-11-28T22:52:43.095Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch have a significant health emergency costing >$1500 out-of-pocket or >2 weeks of work in 2021?",2.6,,"Linch","Linch","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","Linch-Personal-Questions,health,US Medical Care System,covid-19,Personal","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T22:52:43.100Z","2020-11-28T22:52:43.095Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch have a significant health emergency costing >$1500 out-of-pocket or >2 weeks of work in 2021?",0,,"Jack R","Linch","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","Linch-Personal-Questions,health,US Medical Care System,covid-19,Personal","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-06T22:32:24.829Z","2020-11-28T22:52:43.095Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch have a significant health emergency costing >$1500 out-of-pocket or >2 weeks of work in 2021?",2.7,,"Linch","Linch","updating slightly upwards because of covid","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","Linch-Personal-Questions,health,US Medical Care System,covid-19,Personal","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T23:03:19.861Z","2020-11-28T22:52:43.095Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be no religion in 100 years.",0,,"David","spacemammoth",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-23T10:41:06.000Z","2014-08-13T14:37:57.000Z","2114-08-13T14:38:17.000Z"
"There will be no religion in 100 years.",1,,"penten","spacemammoth",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-24T15:18:46.000Z","2014-08-13T14:37:57.000Z","2114-08-13T14:38:17.000Z"
"There will be no religion in 100 years.",8,,"themusicgod1","spacemammoth",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-24T03:30:10.000Z","2014-08-13T14:37:57.000Z","2114-08-13T14:38:17.000Z"
"There will be no religion in 100 years.",1,,"spacemammoth","spacemammoth",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-08-13T14:37:57.000Z","2014-08-13T14:37:57.000Z","2114-08-13T14:38:17.000Z"
"At 30, I will have never been married.",80,,"Andrew MacFie","ejh3141",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-01T00:45:23.540Z","2020-02-20T07:23:17.071Z","2031-02-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"At 30, I will have never been married.",55,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","ejh3141",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-22T07:05:51.424Z","2020-02-20T07:23:17.071Z","2031-02-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"At 30, I will have never been married.",60,,"pranomostro","ejh3141",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-20T13:02:20.408Z","2020-02-20T07:23:17.071Z","2031-02-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"At 30, I will have never been married.",80,,"ejh3141","ejh3141",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-20T07:23:17.074Z","2020-02-20T07:23:17.071Z","2031-02-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"750k",70,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T15:07:54.117Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.114Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"750k",94,,"nortriptyline2","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T17:16:01.336Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.114Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"750k",80,,"chemotaxis101","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T18:02:25.459Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.114Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"750k",47,,"Baeboo","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T20:03:12.020Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.114Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"SR: The FBI/government will gain control in any way of DPR's ~฿600,000 within 2 years.",1,,"JoshuaZ","gwern","Not happening in 12 days. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-22T16:26:34.000Z","2013-10-04T23:46:56.000Z","2015-10-04T23:46:56.000Z"
"SR: The FBI/government will gain control in any way of DPR's ~฿600,000 within 2 years.",3,,"Josh Holland","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-22T16:24:34.000Z","2013-10-04T23:46:56.000Z","2015-10-04T23:46:56.000Z"
"SR: The FBI/government will gain control in any way of DPR's ~฿600,000 within 2 years.",70,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-04T23:46:56.000Z","2013-10-04T23:46:56.000Z","2015-10-04T23:46:56.000Z"
"SR: The FBI/government will gain control in any way of DPR's ~฿600,000 within 2 years.",50,,"Tuxedage","gwern","50",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-04T23:50:33.000Z","2013-10-04T23:46:56.000Z","2015-10-04T23:46:56.000Z"
"One of NASA's 12 new astronauts will go into space before June 12, 2027",80,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-07T16:20:46.047Z","2017-06-12T02:05:48.000Z","2027-06-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"One of NASA's 12 new astronauts will go into space before June 12, 2027",79,,"Baeboo","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-07T00:13:12.721Z","2017-06-12T02:05:48.000Z","2027-06-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"One of NASA's 12 new astronauts will go into space before June 12, 2027",60,,"Jayson Virissimo","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-19T05:45:48.000Z","2017-06-12T02:05:48.000Z","2027-06-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"One of NASA's 12 new astronauts will go into space before June 12, 2027",75,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Updating confidence based on apparent success of both SpaceX and Boeing. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-08-03T20:22:24.000Z","2017-06-12T02:05:48.000Z","2027-06-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"One of NASA's 12 new astronauts will go into space before June 12, 2027",82,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Based on apparent success of crewed dragon. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-06T22:46:07.373Z","2017-06-12T02:05:48.000Z","2027-06-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"One of NASA's 12 new astronauts will go into space before June 12, 2027",78,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Updating based on imminent launch of crewed Dragon. If crewed Dragon is successful, will further update to 82.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-26T22:30:47.882Z","2017-06-12T02:05:48.000Z","2027-06-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"One of NASA's 12 new astronauts will go into space before June 12, 2027",70,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-12T02:05:48.000Z","2017-06-12T02:05:48.000Z","2027-06-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"One of NASA's 12 new astronauts will go into space before June 12, 2027",47,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-12T03:09:02.000Z","2017-06-12T02:05:48.000Z","2027-06-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"Vox Media publishes an article on one of their official news sites about the SSC-NYT affair by the end of the year",14,,"JoshuaZ","peter_hurford","Updating on the SSC-NYT thing not going away as fast as I initially expected. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-08T13:25:26.030Z","2020-06-24T03:52:11.464Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Vox Media publishes an article on one of their official news sites about the SSC-NYT affair by the end of the year",5,,"azatris","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-24T11:55:14.305Z","2020-06-24T03:52:11.464Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Vox Media publishes an article on one of their official news sites about the SSC-NYT affair by the end of the year",14,,"JoshuaZ","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-08T13:25:00.785Z","2020-06-24T03:52:11.464Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Vox Media publishes an article on one of their official news sites about the SSC-NYT affair by the end of the year",35,,"chemotaxis101","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-08T09:55:44.066Z","2020-06-24T03:52:11.464Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Vox Media publishes an article on one of their official news sites about the SSC-NYT affair by the end of the year",12,,"JoshuaZ","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-25T12:54:05.950Z","2020-06-24T03:52:11.464Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Vox Media publishes an article on one of their official news sites about the SSC-NYT affair by the end of the year",20,,"peter_hurford","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-24T03:52:11.469Z","2020-06-24T03:52:11.464Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"400k",90,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T15:07:54.110Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.107Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"400k",65,,"Baeboo","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T20:02:53.317Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.107Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"400k",97,,"nortriptyline2","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T17:11:57.020Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.107Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"400k",95,,"chemotaxis101","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T18:02:00.561Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.107Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"Serei has smaller boobs than SynapticWanderer. (it makes about as much sense in context okay???)",95,,"Serei","Somni",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-30T09:59:59.000Z","2017-06-18T06:44:57.000Z","2017-06-25T06:44:57.000Z"
"Serei has smaller boobs than SynapticWanderer. (it makes about as much sense in context okay???)",80,,"Somni","Somni",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-18T06:44:57.000Z","2017-06-18T06:44:57.000Z","2017-06-25T06:44:57.000Z"
"Serei has smaller boobs than SynapticWanderer. (it makes about as much sense in context okay???)",51,,"themusicgod1","Somni",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-25T13:29:50.000Z","2017-06-18T06:44:57.000Z","2017-06-25T06:44:57.000Z"
"Serei has smaller boobs than SynapticWanderer. (it makes about as much sense in context okay???)",86,,"synapticwanderer","Somni","contextual data makes this likely",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-29T20:00:13.000Z","2017-06-18T06:44:57.000Z","2017-06-25T06:44:57.000Z"
"200k",98,,"nortriptyline2","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T17:11:40.601Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.100Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"200k",98,,"chemotaxis101","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T18:01:26.629Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.100Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"200k",96,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T15:07:54.103Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.100Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"200k",81,,"Baeboo","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T20:02:37.103Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.100Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"100k",98,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T15:07:54.096Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.093Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"100k",98,,"nortriptyline2","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T16:48:21.671Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.093Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"100k",99,,"chemotaxis101","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T18:00:52.208Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.093Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"100k",92,,"Baeboo","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T20:02:23.764Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.093Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"I will be a millionaire by 2026, 5 years after graduating college",3,,"aoeu","thebaelfire",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-07-18T05:10:59.000Z","2017-07-14T13:44:23.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will be a millionaire by 2026, 5 years after graduating college",0,,"imwelshnotenglish","thebaelfire",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-07-20T07:45:23.000Z","2017-07-14T13:44:23.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will be a millionaire by 2026, 5 years after graduating college",2,,"ioannes","thebaelfire","lol at 90%; what base rate are you using?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-07-25T21:01:42.000Z","2017-07-14T13:44:23.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will be a millionaire by 2026, 5 years after graduating college",90,,"thebaelfire","thebaelfire",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-07-14T13:44:23.000Z","2017-07-14T13:44:23.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will get married before 30",80,,"thebaelfire","thebaelfire",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-07-14T14:09:24.000Z","2017-07-14T14:09:24.000Z","2030-09-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will get married before 30",45,,"bobpage","thebaelfire",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-07-14T16:50:41.000Z","2017-07-14T14:09:24.000Z","2030-09-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will get married before 30",60,,"quatrefoil","thebaelfire",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-07-26T21:03:34.000Z","2017-07-14T14:09:24.000Z","2030-09-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will get married before 30",45,,"Michael Dickens","thebaelfire","Average marriage age is 28 (IIRC) but average age for people who use PredictionBook is probably higher",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-01T17:51:40.000Z","2017-07-14T14:09:24.000Z","2030-09-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"50k",99,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T15:07:54.088Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.084Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"50k",99,,"nortriptyline2","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T16:47:52.908Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.084Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"50k",100,,"chemotaxis101","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T17:59:56.779Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.084Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"50k",97,,"Baeboo","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T20:01:51.657Z","2020-11-10T15:07:54.084Z","2022-01-15T17:00:00.000Z"
"I will be physically stronger than a bear someday (possibly assisted by a mech or something, but not a remote-controlled one).",45,,"nick","nick",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-14T21:21:23.000Z","2013-03-14T21:21:23.000Z","2100-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"I will be physically stronger than a bear someday (possibly assisted by a mech or something, but not a remote-controlled one).",15,,"RandomThinker","nick",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-15T11:40:15.000Z","2013-03-14T21:21:23.000Z","2100-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"I will be physically stronger than a bear someday (possibly assisted by a mech or something, but not a remote-controlled one).",1,,"ashrewdmint","nick","Does this prediction factor in potential future bears with cybernetic implants and/or exoskeletons?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-17T22:16:10.000Z","2013-03-14T21:21:23.000Z","2100-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"I will be physically stronger than a bear someday (possibly assisted by a mech or something, but not a remote-controlled one).",0,,"simplicio","nick",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-15T20:28:03.000Z","2013-03-14T21:21:23.000Z","2100-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"April",10,,"Stucwerk","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-18T07:26:10.859Z","2020-02-24T20:04:59.917Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"April",29,,"Stucwerk","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-16T11:36:41.831Z","2020-02-24T20:04:59.917Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"April",20,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-10T00:18:27.451Z","2020-02-24T20:04:59.917Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"April",15,,"sabs81","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-12T22:47:38.032Z","2020-02-24T20:04:59.917Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"April",15,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-06T16:02:24.678Z","2020-02-24T20:04:59.917Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"April",15,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-24T20:04:59.920Z","2020-02-24T20:04:59.917Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity is not going to go extinct before 2200 because of anthropogenic climate change.",95,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-29T20:44:05.549Z","2019-08-29T20:44:05.545Z","2200-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity is not going to go extinct before 2200 because of anthropogenic climate change.",92,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-29T20:48:52.932Z","2019-08-29T20:44:05.545Z","2200-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity is not going to go extinct before 2200 because of anthropogenic climate change.",99,,"stepan","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-10T12:22:11.288Z","2019-08-29T20:44:05.545Z","2200-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity is not going to go extinct before 2200 because of anthropogenic climate change.",100,,"synkarius","pranomostro","If I'm wrong, I'll either be nonhuman or dead.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-06T23:53:56.762Z","2019-08-29T20:44:05.545Z","2200-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity is not going to go extinct before 2200 because of anthropogenic climate change.",99,,"Baeboo","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-07T21:05:45.496Z","2019-08-29T20:44:05.545Z","2200-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050, more tobacco will be utilized in the biofuel industry than in the cigar & cigarette industry.",60,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-12T22:17:24.000Z","2011-11-12T22:17:24.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050, more tobacco will be utilized in the biofuel industry than in the cigar & cigarette industry.",20,,"Laurent Bossavit","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-13T17:27:39.000Z","2011-11-12T22:17:24.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050, more tobacco will be utilized in the biofuel industry than in the cigar & cigarette industry.",53,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T21:24:52.000Z","2011-11-12T22:17:24.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050, more tobacco will be utilized in the biofuel industry than in the cigar & cigarette industry.",40,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-13T03:55:04.000Z","2011-11-12T22:17:24.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2023, someone will have a part or all of their calvarium (skull cap) removed and replaced by a transparent, durable material for the purpose of body modification.",54,,"themusicgod1","Digglerson",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T15:04:25.000Z","2013-03-25T06:02:38.000Z","2023-04-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2023, someone will have a part or all of their calvarium (skull cap) removed and replaced by a transparent, durable material for the purpose of body modification.",15,,"Digglerson","Digglerson",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-25T06:02:38.000Z","2013-03-25T06:02:38.000Z","2023-04-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2023, someone will have a part or all of their calvarium (skull cap) removed and replaced by a transparent, durable material for the purpose of body modification.",20,,"Digglerson","Digglerson",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-25T06:23:41.000Z","2013-03-25T06:02:38.000Z","2023-04-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2023, someone will have a part or all of their calvarium (skull cap) removed and replaced by a transparent, durable material for the purpose of body modification.",40,,"rebellionkid","Digglerson",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-06-23T17:13:12.000Z","2013-03-25T06:02:38.000Z","2023-04-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2023, someone will have a part or all of their calvarium (skull cap) removed and replaced by a transparent, durable material for the purpose of body modification.",17,,"Pablo","Digglerson",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-02T16:34:24.000Z","2013-03-25T06:02:38.000Z","2023-04-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"001-A(山东/Shandong) aircraft carrier was predicted by National Interest to take 9 years. It will take 4.5 -5 years.",10,,"EloiseRosen","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-06T23:07:27.000Z","2015-10-06T02:07:32.000Z","2019-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"001-A(山东/Shandong) aircraft carrier was predicted by National Interest to take 9 years. It will take 4.5 -5 years.",25,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-06T12:22:46.000Z","2015-10-06T02:07:32.000Z","2019-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"001-A(山东/Shandong) aircraft carrier was predicted by National Interest to take 9 years. It will take 4.5 -5 years.",95,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-06T02:07:32.000Z","2015-10-06T02:07:32.000Z","2019-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"001-A(山东/Shandong) aircraft carrier was predicted by National Interest to take 9 years. It will take 4.5 -5 years.",15,,"Josh Holland","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-07T09:06:57.000Z","2015-10-06T02:07:32.000Z","2019-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"We will be able to identify the genome-wide significant SNPs (collectively) responsible for 10% of the heritability in adult IQ by 2020",10,,"RoryS","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-18T19:43:09.000Z","2015-07-15T18:42:11.000Z","2021-01-03T08:00:00.000Z"
"We will be able to identify the genome-wide significant SNPs (collectively) responsible for 10% of the heritability in adult IQ by 2020",0,,"dndtdong","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-13T08:06:27.000Z","2015-07-15T18:42:11.000Z","2021-01-03T08:00:00.000Z"
"We will be able to identify the genome-wide significant SNPs (collectively) responsible for 10% of the heritability in adult IQ by 2020",35,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-15T18:42:11.000Z","2015-07-15T18:42:11.000Z","2021-01-03T08:00:00.000Z"
"We will be able to identify the genome-wide significant SNPs (collectively) responsible for 10% of the heritability in adult IQ by 2020",20,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-15T18:42:44.000Z","2015-07-15T18:42:11.000Z","2021-01-03T08:00:00.000Z"
"We will be able to identify the genome-wide significant SNPs (collectively) responsible for 10% of the heritability in adult IQ by 2020",15,,"olivia","InquilineKea","I'm not confident in the number or effectiveness of large scale population genetics programs. This seems like something definitely possible, but that's a short timescale.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-15T23:34:11.000Z","2015-07-15T18:42:11.000Z","2021-01-03T08:00:00.000Z"
"Investors in the WeWork IPO will lose more than 50% of their investment within 3 years",70,,"sjy","sjy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-18T02:24:30.410Z","2019-08-18T02:24:30.403Z","2022-09-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Investors in the WeWork IPO will lose more than 50% of their investment within 3 years",55,,"pranomostro","sjy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-21T12:59:28.911Z","2019-08-18T02:24:30.403Z","2022-09-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Investors in the WeWork IPO will lose more than 50% of their investment within 3 years",80,,"batemancapital","sjy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-22T20:09:25.956Z","2019-08-18T02:24:30.403Z","2022-09-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Investors in the WeWork IPO will lose more than 50% of their investment within 3 years",79,,"stepan","sjy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-10T12:27:49.702Z","2019-08-18T02:24:30.403Z","2022-09-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"World currences will become truly ""credit-based"" by 2021. Smartcards with biometric IDs will be the forefront of a new era in currency marketing.",35,,"JoshuaZ","Harbinger1","Conjunction issues and seems too soon. Happening in 9 years? ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T02:14:33.000Z","2011-11-17T01:57:37.000Z","2021-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"World currences will become truly ""credit-based"" by 2021. Smartcards with biometric IDs will be the forefront of a new era in currency marketing.",30,,"Anubhav","Harbinger1","Not really implausible, governments HATE cash. (or so Rick Falkvinge claims)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T04:34:51.000Z","2011-11-17T01:57:37.000Z","2021-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"World currences will become truly ""credit-based"" by 2021. Smartcards with biometric IDs will be the forefront of a new era in currency marketing.",90,,"Harbinger1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T01:57:37.000Z","2011-11-17T01:57:37.000Z","2021-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"World currences will become truly ""credit-based"" by 2021. Smartcards with biometric IDs will be the forefront of a new era in currency marketing.",5,,"lavalamp","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T16:55:51.000Z","2011-11-17T01:57:37.000Z","2021-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zika will be found not to be the (sole, proximate) cause of microencephaly for the recent cases in Brazil",13,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","davidmanheim",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-18T03:54:28.000Z","2016-02-17T05:13:32.000Z","2017-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zika will be found not to be the (sole, proximate) cause of microencephaly for the recent cases in Brazil",15,,"davidmanheim","davidmanheim","The CDC has said that they are getting more and more convinced.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-18T03:04:05.000Z","2016-02-17T05:13:32.000Z","2017-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zika will be found not to be the (sole, proximate) cause of microencephaly for the recent cases in Brazil",25,,"davidmanheim","davidmanheim",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-17T05:13:32.000Z","2016-02-17T05:13:32.000Z","2017-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zika will be found not to be the (sole, proximate) cause of microencephaly for the recent cases in Brazil",75,,"brslvrsl","davidmanheim",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-29T20:39:35.000Z","2016-02-17T05:13:32.000Z","2017-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zika will be found not to be the (sole, proximate) cause of microencephaly for the recent cases in Brazil",2,,"davidmanheim","davidmanheim",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-29T19:35:27.000Z","2016-02-17T05:13:32.000Z","2017-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zika will be found not to be the (sole, proximate) cause of microencephaly for the recent cases in Brazil",5,,"jesselevine","davidmanheim","AFAIK the evidence is fairly clear ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-18T12:53:01.000Z","2016-02-17T05:13:32.000Z","2017-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"EU to succeed in its target of cutting greenhouse gas levels to 20% of 1990 levels by 2020.",54,,"themusicgod1","simplicio",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T14:53:51.000Z","2013-01-18T22:47:26.000Z","2020-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"EU to succeed in its target of cutting greenhouse gas levels to 20% of 1990 levels by 2020.",55,,"JoshuaZ","simplicio",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-22T05:26:47.000Z","2013-01-18T22:47:26.000Z","2020-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"EU to succeed in its target of cutting greenhouse gas levels to 20% of 1990 levels by 2020.",80,,"Michael Dickens","simplicio","The wording of this prediction is unclear. EU's target is not 20% *of* 1990 level, but a 20% *reduction from* 1990 level (which is 80% of 1990 level).",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-21T23:04:52.000Z","2013-01-18T22:47:26.000Z","2020-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"EU to succeed in its target of cutting greenhouse gas levels to 20% of 1990 levels by 2020.",75,,"simplicio","simplicio",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-18T22:47:26.000Z","2013-01-18T22:47:26.000Z","2020-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"P=ZPP  proven by 2045",85,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-07T15:19:44.000Z","2013-06-07T15:19:44.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"P=ZPP  proven by 2045",85,,"bt_uytya","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-01T05:36:40.000Z","2013-06-07T15:19:44.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"P=ZPP  proven by 2045",90,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-07T19:48:13.000Z","2013-06-07T15:19:44.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"P=ZPP  proven by 2045",75,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-03T21:53:58.331Z","2013-06-07T15:19:44.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"P=ZPP  proven by 2045",75,,"Baeboo","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-04T04:23:49.670Z","2013-06-07T15:19:44.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Real Madrid would have won the champions league at least 6 times by the year 2025",75,,"Seyi","Seyi","Some might find this prediction a lame one but its a fact......time will tell.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T15:18:26.000Z","2011-11-17T15:15:44.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Real Madrid would have won the champions league at least 6 times by the year 2025",40,,"JoshuaZ","Seyi",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T15:55:06.000Z","2011-11-17T15:15:44.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Real Madrid would have won the champions league at least 6 times by the year 2025",10,,"cheick","Seyi",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-18T16:04:06.000Z","2011-11-17T15:15:44.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Real Madrid would have won the champions league at least 6 times by the year 2025",75,,"Seyi","Seyi",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T15:15:44.000Z","2011-11-17T15:15:44.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Real Madrid would have won the champions league at least 6 times by the year 2025",43,,"themusicgod1","Seyi",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T22:56:59.000Z","2011-11-17T15:15:44.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Real Madrid would have won the champions league at least 6 times by the year 2025",38,,"JoshuaZ","Seyi",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T01:50:28.000Z","2011-11-17T15:15:44.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Open source MineCraft client by 2021",40,,"shokwave","Nic_Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-26T15:16:21.000Z","2011-11-22T12:28:10.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Open source MineCraft client by 2021",19,,"themusicgod1","Nic_Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-14T06:01:03.000Z","2011-11-22T12:28:10.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Open source MineCraft client by 2021",1,,"Nic_Smith","Nic_Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-16T01:45:07.000Z","2011-11-22T12:28:10.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Open source MineCraft client by 2021",66,,"Nic_Smith","Nic_Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-22T12:28:10.000Z","2011-11-22T12:28:10.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Open source MineCraft client by 2021",80,,"gwern","Nic_Smith","good lord, how long do you think he's going to string it out?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-22T16:21:48.000Z","2011-11-22T12:28:10.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Hungarian governing party Fidesz will lose the 2022 general election or lose its governing power before that election.",10,,"korakos","korakos",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T14:38:34.521Z","2020-11-08T14:38:34.516Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Hungarian governing party Fidesz will lose the 2022 general election or lose its governing power before that election.",5,,"Deepak","korakos",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-09T13:12:45.257Z","2020-11-08T14:38:34.516Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Hungarian governing party Fidesz will lose the 2022 general election or lose its governing power before that election.",15,,"Liging","korakos","Unlikely, but possible",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-15T18:26:40.824Z","2020-11-08T14:38:34.516Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Hungarian governing party Fidesz will lose the 2022 general election or lose its governing power before that election.",18,,"JoshuaZ","korakos",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-16T00:15:54.759Z","2020-11-08T14:38:34.516Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Italy will default on its debt by 2022.",5,,"telegrafista","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-14T16:00:12.193Z","2016-02-16T10:00:35.000Z","2022-12-25T23:00:00.000Z"
"Italy will default on its debt by 2022.",34,,"themusicgod1","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-13T19:59:46.000Z","2016-02-16T10:00:35.000Z","2022-12-25T23:00:00.000Z"
"Italy will default on its debt by 2022.",82,,"splorridge","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-16T11:13:16.000Z","2016-02-16T10:00:35.000Z","2022-12-25T23:00:00.000Z"
"Italy will default on its debt by 2022.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-16T10:00:35.000Z","2016-02-16T10:00:35.000Z","2022-12-25T23:00:00.000Z"
"Fareed Zakaria: Indonesia will win more gold medals than Brazil in 2040",35,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-15T05:44:16.000Z","2012-08-15T05:44:16.000Z","2040-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Fareed Zakaria: Indonesia will win more gold medals than Brazil in 2040",55,,"pranomostro","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-10T20:53:02.224Z","2012-08-15T05:44:16.000Z","2040-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Fareed Zakaria: Indonesia will win more gold medals than Brazil in 2040",46,,"themusicgod1","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T06:14:51.000Z","2012-08-15T05:44:16.000Z","2040-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Fareed Zakaria: Indonesia will win more gold medals than Brazil in 2040",45,,"gwern","RandomThinker","highly variable especially that far out... not comfortable straying far from 50%",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-19T19:58:39.000Z","2012-08-15T05:44:16.000Z","2040-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2021.",95,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-04T18:03:30.000Z","2011-12-04T08:10:12.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2021.",85,,"Grognor","gwern","possible optimism bias on my part. lowered my own score slightly in compensation",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-04T18:29:20.000Z","2011-12-04T08:10:12.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2021.",85,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-04T08:10:12.000Z","2011-12-04T08:10:12.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2021.",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:10:34.000Z","2011-12-04T08:10:12.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2041.",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-04T08:10:26.000Z","2011-12-04T08:10:26.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2041.",72,,"Grognor","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-05T05:26:10.000Z","2011-12-04T08:10:26.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2041.",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:10:42.000Z","2011-12-04T08:10:26.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2041.",65,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-04T17:56:17.000Z","2011-12-04T08:10:26.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2021.",95,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-04T08:11:09.000Z","2011-12-04T08:11:09.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2021.",92,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-04T17:52:14.000Z","2011-12-04T08:11:09.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2021.",60,,"papermachine","gwern","Not as optimistic about the lack of fraud/embezzlement.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-05T06:27:03.000Z","2011-12-04T08:11:09.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2021.",63,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:11:32.000Z","2011-12-04T08:11:09.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Tesla has at least one truly autonomous (no human safety driver) taxi (where a member of the public chooses the destination and pays) on a regular street (where unrestricted human-driven cars are driven on the same street) by the end of 2020",5,,"peter_hurford","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-15T05:39:47.850Z","2020-01-15T05:39:47.844Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Tesla has at least one truly autonomous (no human safety driver) taxi (where a member of the public chooses the destination and pays) on a regular street (where unrestricted human-driven cars are driven on the same street) by the end of 2020",5,,"pranomostro","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-17T16:16:30.537Z","2020-01-15T05:39:47.844Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Tesla has at least one truly autonomous (no human safety driver) taxi (where a member of the public chooses the destination and pays) on a regular street (where unrestricted human-driven cars are driven on the same street) by the end of 2020",0,,"Bruno Parga","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-26T16:30:22.527Z","2020-01-15T05:39:47.844Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Tesla has at least one truly autonomous (no human safety driver) taxi (where a member of the public chooses the destination and pays) on a regular street (where unrestricted human-driven cars are driven on the same street) by the end of 2020",0,,"NickN","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-30T18:00:52.615Z","2020-01-15T05:39:47.844Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2061.",45,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-04T17:52:34.000Z","2011-12-04T08:12:05.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2061.",40,,"papermachine","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-05T06:27:24.000Z","2011-12-04T08:12:05.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2061.",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-04T08:12:05.000Z","2011-12-04T08:12:05.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2061.",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:11:49.000Z","2011-12-04T08:12:05.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The cost projections of the hyperloop are underestimates by at least an order of magnitude.",14,,"mfb","Malcolm Ocean",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-20T18:59:28.000Z","2013-08-15T20:41:29.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The cost projections of the hyperloop are underestimates by at least an order of magnitude.",8,,"Malcolm Ocean","Malcolm Ocean",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-15T20:41:29.000Z","2013-08-15T20:41:29.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The cost projections of the hyperloop are underestimates by at least an order of magnitude.",12,,"lavalamp","Malcolm Ocean",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-16T20:46:05.000Z","2013-08-15T20:41:29.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The cost projections of the hyperloop are underestimates by at least an order of magnitude.",19,,"themusicgod1","Malcolm Ocean",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-15T01:39:39.000Z","2013-08-15T20:41:29.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 10 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA.",5,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-28T22:34:39.000Z","2011-12-28T22:34:39.000Z","2021-12-28T22:34:39.000Z"
"In 10 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA.",2,,"Konkvistador","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-28T22:35:45.000Z","2011-12-28T22:34:39.000Z","2021-12-28T22:34:39.000Z"
"In 10 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA.",5,,"endoself","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-31T05:03:26.000Z","2011-12-28T22:34:39.000Z","2021-12-28T22:34:39.000Z"
"In 10 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA.",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:32:08.000Z","2011-12-28T22:34:39.000Z","2021-12-28T22:34:39.000Z"
"Q.I. makes it up to ""Z"".",10,,"muflax","muflax",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-31T18:12:16.000Z","2011-12-31T18:12:16.000Z","2028-12-31T18:12:16.000Z"
"Q.I. makes it up to ""Z"".",60,,"Andrew MacFie","muflax",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-09T17:12:41.000Z","2011-12-31T18:12:16.000Z","2028-12-31T18:12:16.000Z"
"Q.I. makes it up to ""Z"".",10,,"fergus","muflax",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-01T04:24:34.000Z","2011-12-31T18:12:16.000Z","2028-12-31T18:12:16.000Z"
"Q.I. makes it up to ""Z"".",3,,"HonoreDB","muflax",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-02T07:06:53.000Z","2011-12-31T18:12:16.000Z","2028-12-31T18:12:16.000Z"
"Q.I. makes it up to ""Z"".",75,,"Andrew MacFie","muflax",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-18T19:47:47.000Z","2011-12-31T18:12:16.000Z","2028-12-31T18:12:16.000Z"
"Alcor will perform >=1 cryopreservations in 2060.",30,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-04T08:09:35.000Z","2011-12-04T08:09:35.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alcor will perform >=1 cryopreservations in 2060.",4,,"bobpage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-04T08:39:24.000Z","2011-12-04T08:09:35.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alcor will perform >=1 cryopreservations in 2060.",60,,"Leo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-26T15:02:25.000Z","2011-12-04T08:09:35.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alcor will perform >=1 cryopreservations in 2060.",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:10:02.000Z","2011-12-04T08:09:35.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2041.",70,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-04T08:11:55.000Z","2011-12-04T08:11:55.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2041.",65,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-04T17:52:22.000Z","2011-12-04T08:11:55.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2041.",55,,"papermachine","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-05T06:27:15.000Z","2011-12-04T08:11:55.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2041.",58,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:11:44.000Z","2011-12-04T08:11:55.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The tentative announcement of possible technological civilizations outside our solar system will precede widely-accepted confirmation of extraterrestrial life within our own solar system. (based on announcements in peer-reviewed jounals)",5,,"army1987","NathanMcKnight","If neither happens before 2020-01-01, does it count as “no” or is it void?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-06-05T22:24:15.000Z","2012-05-25T19:02:03.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The tentative announcement of possible technological civilizations outside our solar system will precede widely-accepted confirmation of extraterrestrial life within our own solar system. (based on announcements in peer-reviewed jounals)",3,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T00:55:27.000Z","2012-05-25T19:02:03.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The tentative announcement of possible technological civilizations outside our solar system will precede widely-accepted confirmation of extraterrestrial life within our own solar system. (based on announcements in peer-reviewed jounals)",60,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-25T19:02:03.000Z","2012-05-25T19:02:03.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The tentative announcement of possible technological civilizations outside our solar system will precede widely-accepted confirmation of extraterrestrial life within our own solar system. (based on announcements in peer-reviewed jounals)",25,,"RandomThinker","NathanMcKnight","Comparing 2 ultra-low probability events.  ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-31T00:47:38.000Z","2012-05-25T19:02:03.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The tentative announcement of possible technological civilizations outside our solar system will precede widely-accepted confirmation of extraterrestrial life within our own solar system. (based on announcements in peer-reviewed jounals)",25,,"RandomThinker","NathanMcKnight","Comparing 2 ultra-low probability events.  ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-31T00:49:01.000Z","2012-05-25T19:02:03.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"NGE: 4.0 will be titled ""You Can (Not) Stay Here""",1,,"Anubhav","gwern","Per your own critique. No particular reason for favouring this hypothesis.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-02T02:16:00.000Z","2012-01-01T20:12:46.000Z","2018-01-01T20:18:11.000Z"
"NGE: 4.0 will be titled ""You Can (Not) Stay Here""",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-01T20:12:46.000Z","2012-01-01T20:12:46.000Z","2018-01-01T20:18:11.000Z"
"NGE: 4.0 will be titled ""You Can (Not) Stay Here""",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:34:19.000Z","2012-01-01T20:12:46.000Z","2018-01-01T20:18:11.000Z"
"NGE: 4.0 will be titled ""You Can (Not) Stay Here""",1,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-02T20:53:09.000Z","2012-01-01T20:12:46.000Z","2018-01-01T20:18:11.000Z"
"By 2025, at least five top-ranking Western Ph.D. psychology programmes (out of a plausible 'world top 10' at the time) will require the conduction a high-quality “direct” replication attempt of a major finding in their research area.",35,,"RoryS","RoryS","Right on both accounts. Changed title, and link to the paper is here. Jim must've taken the manuscript down. Also appears I was overconfident to begin with. http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fpsyg.2015.01152/full",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T14:33:11.000Z","2015-07-19T22:54:41.000Z","2026-01-01T10:59:00.000Z"
"By 2025, at least five top-ranking Western Ph.D. psychology programmes (out of a plausible 'world top 10' at the time) will require the conduction a high-quality “direct” replication attempt of a major finding in their research area.",25,,"JoshuaZ","RoryS",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-20T00:27:32.000Z","2015-07-19T22:54:41.000Z","2026-01-01T10:59:00.000Z"
"By 2025, at least five top-ranking Western Ph.D. psychology programmes (out of a plausible 'world top 10' at the time) will require the conduction a high-quality “direct” replication attempt of a major finding in their research area.",50,,"RoryS","RoryS",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-19T22:54:41.000Z","2015-07-19T22:54:41.000Z","2026-01-01T10:59:00.000Z"
"By 2025, at least five top-ranking Western Ph.D. psychology programmes (out of a plausible 'world top 10' at the time) will require the conduction a high-quality “direct” replication attempt of a major finding in their research area.",8,,"EloiseRosen","RoryS",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-27T17:02:28.000Z","2015-07-19T22:54:41.000Z","2026-01-01T10:59:00.000Z"
"By 2025, at least five top-ranking Western Ph.D. psychology programmes (out of a plausible 'world top 10' at the time) will require the conduction a high-quality “direct” replication attempt of a major finding in their research area.",15,,"btrettel","RoryS","Would be nice, but I think this is unlikely.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-20T18:35:37.000Z","2015-07-19T22:54:41.000Z","2026-01-01T10:59:00.000Z"
"Tyrion is one of the 3 Dragon's heads.",30,,"TRManderson","Osuniev",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-15T10:50:57.000Z","2013-09-05T00:52:25.000Z","2015-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Tyrion is one of the 3 Dragon's heads.",35,,"Michael Dickens","Osuniev",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-07T22:43:12.000Z","2013-09-05T00:52:25.000Z","2015-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Tyrion is one of the 3 Dragon's heads.",60,,"Osuniev","Osuniev",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-05T00:52:25.000Z","2013-09-05T00:52:25.000Z","2015-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Tyrion is one of the 3 Dragon's heads.",42,,"themusicgod1","Osuniev",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-14T07:36:02.000Z","2013-09-05T00:52:25.000Z","2015-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will publically convert to Islam before 2025.",3,,"Michael Dickens","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-07T22:41:24.000Z","2013-09-07T21:22:32.000Z","2025-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"I will publically convert to Islam before 2025.",45,,"themusicgod1","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-10T00:29:34.000Z","2013-09-07T21:22:32.000Z","2025-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"I will publically convert to Islam before 2025.",0,,"HonoreDB","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-27T11:55:49.000Z","2013-09-07T21:22:32.000Z","2025-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"I will publically convert to Islam before 2025.",0,,"Jayson Virissimo","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-07T21:22:32.000Z","2013-09-07T21:22:32.000Z","2025-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"Trump massive crackdown on comedians.  Bill Maher imprisoned(for comedy show)",9,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-15T18:02:31.000Z","2017-09-15T18:02:31.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump massive crackdown on comedians.  Bill Maher imprisoned(for comedy show)",3,,"lwbayes91","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-18T04:10:12.000Z","2017-09-15T18:02:31.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump massive crackdown on comedians.  Bill Maher imprisoned(for comedy show)",5,,"Baeboo","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-29T06:31:48.000Z","2017-09-15T18:02:31.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump massive crackdown on comedians.  Bill Maher imprisoned(for comedy show)",0,,"Dapple","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-01T15:42:41.000Z","2017-09-15T18:02:31.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump massive crackdown on comedians.  Bill Maher imprisoned(for comedy show)",0,,"Baeboo","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T05:05:23.372Z","2017-09-15T18:02:31.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump massive crackdown on comedians.  Bill Maher imprisoned(for comedy show)",7,,"Baeboo","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-17T00:24:36.000Z","2017-09-15T18:02:31.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Commercial fusion reactor online by 2063 --Charles Stross",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-14T05:07:51.000Z","2012-01-14T05:07:51.000Z","2063-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Commercial fusion reactor online by 2063 --Charles Stross",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:44:00.000Z","2012-01-14T05:07:51.000Z","2063-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Commercial fusion reactor online by 2063 --Charles Stross",51,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:23:34.079Z","2012-01-14T05:07:51.000Z","2063-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Commercial fusion reactor online by 2063 --Charles Stross",40,,"spqr0a1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-17T19:10:01.000Z","2012-01-14T05:07:51.000Z","2063-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Cars will probably mostly be plug-in hybrids"" in 2032 --Charles Stross",75,,"lavalamp","gwern","OK, I can see that happening for new cars. Legacy cars will still be around, though.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-20T17:17:41.000Z","2012-01-14T05:09:47.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Cars will probably mostly be plug-in hybrids"" in 2032 --Charles Stross",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:44:51.000Z","2012-01-14T05:09:47.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Cars will probably mostly be plug-in hybrids"" in 2032 --Charles Stross",75,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-14T05:09:47.000Z","2012-01-14T05:09:47.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Cars will probably mostly be plug-in hybrids"" in 2032 --Charles Stross",70,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:22:31.154Z","2012-01-14T05:09:47.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Marijuana will be legal in Canada by 2025.",50,,"procran","Malcolm Ocean",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-03T22:34:08.000Z","2013-09-01T23:14:47.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Marijuana will be legal in Canada by 2025.",99,,"vital303","Malcolm Ocean",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-10T10:09:50.000Z","2013-09-01T23:14:47.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Marijuana will be legal in Canada by 2025.",65,,"Adele_L","Malcolm Ocean",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-09T21:17:14.000Z","2013-09-01T23:14:47.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Marijuana will be legal in Canada by 2025.",60,,"Malcolm Ocean","Malcolm Ocean",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-01T23:14:47.000Z","2013-09-01T23:14:47.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"American troops participate in an armed conflict in Venezuela before 2024",18,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-11T11:39:54.318Z","2019-02-25T12:12:01.764Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"American troops participate in an armed conflict in Venezuela before 2024",12,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-25T12:12:01.770Z","2019-02-25T12:12:01.764Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"American troops participate in an armed conflict in Venezuela before 2024",27,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-10T10:33:53.288Z","2019-02-25T12:12:01.764Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"American troops participate in an armed conflict in Venezuela before 2024",10,,"Cato","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-10T15:40:38.477Z","2019-02-25T12:12:01.764Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"American troops participate in an armed conflict in Venezuela before 2024",16,,"Cato","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-03T07:05:38.341Z","2019-02-25T12:12:01.764Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"American troops participate in an armed conflict in Venezuela before 2024",15,,"pranomostro","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-26T11:38:50.261Z","2019-02-25T12:12:01.764Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"American troops participate in an armed conflict in Venezuela before 2024",15,,"Baeboo","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-26T16:38:24.445Z","2019-02-25T12:12:01.764Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"American troops participate in an armed conflict in Venezuela before 2024",18,,"Baeboo","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-11T19:03:34.141Z","2019-02-25T12:12:01.764Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Health - Before the end of 2024 at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a laboratory.",15,,"Baeboo","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-19T23:44:39.400Z","2020-02-28T12:44:21.440Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Health - Before the end of 2024 at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a laboratory.",4,,"Baeboo","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-07T03:04:05.746Z","2020-02-28T12:44:21.440Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Health - Before the end of 2024 at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a laboratory.",19,,"pranomostro","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-06T16:16:01.502Z","2020-02-28T12:44:21.440Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Health - Before the end of 2024 at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a laboratory.",1,,"jbeshir","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-28T12:44:21.444Z","2020-02-28T12:44:21.440Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Health - Before the end of 2024 at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a laboratory.",0,,"jazzsolo","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-13T12:27:11.800Z","2020-02-28T12:44:21.440Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Bitcoin is above $5,000 on 2021/1/1",70,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,crypto","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Bitcoin is above $5,000 on 2021/1/1",80,,"fzeidler","Scott Alexander","",,"ssc,crypto","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-04T13:00:05.071Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Bitcoin is above $5,000 on 2021/1/1",60,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""Bitcoin is trading at $8700. Being only 20% to be above $10,000 seems vaguely consistent with that price being fair, especially if we’re 70% to stay above $5,000, but the implied fat tail here doesn’t seem that fat, so it’s no longer clear that Scott should be going long Bitcoin. I’d likely sell the 5,000 binary call option down to 60% or so. I wouldn’t buy the above $10,000 option because I think you can just buy Bitcoins instead and that’s a better play.""",,"ssc,crypto","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Bitcoin is above $5,000 on 2021/1/1",70,,"Bucky","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,crypto","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will meet or exceed the Copenhagen pledge to reduce the emissions intensity of GDP by 20–25% in 2020 compared to 2005 levels. ",80,,"danpop","Raahul_Kumar","Why aren't you call the country India instead of Bharat?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-07T13:00:03.000Z","2016-02-04T04:05:23.000Z","2021-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will meet or exceed the Copenhagen pledge to reduce the emissions intensity of GDP by 20–25% in 2020 compared to 2005 levels. ",99,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-04T04:05:23.000Z","2016-02-04T04:05:23.000Z","2021-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will meet or exceed the Copenhagen pledge to reduce the emissions intensity of GDP by 20–25% in 2020 compared to 2005 levels. ",76,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-07T14:24:58.000Z","2016-02-04T04:05:23.000Z","2021-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will meet or exceed the Copenhagen pledge to reduce the emissions intensity of GDP by 20–25% in 2020 compared to 2005 levels. ",80,,"NickN","Raahul_Kumar","https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/india/",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-19T22:37:16.820Z","2016-02-04T04:05:23.000Z","2021-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"SPX reaches 4000 by the end of 2021",5,,"batemancapital","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-10T01:48:58.443Z","2020-03-10T01:48:58.439Z","2021-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"SPX reaches 4000 by the end of 2021",15,,"azatris","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-18T10:54:12.737Z","2020-03-10T01:48:58.439Z","2021-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"SPX reaches 4000 by the end of 2021",15,,"pranomostro","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-16T15:45:15.686Z","2020-03-10T01:48:58.439Z","2021-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"SPX reaches 4000 by the end of 2021",2,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-14T06:23:56.766Z","2020-03-10T01:48:58.439Z","2021-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"Coronavirus epidemic in US peaks before June 2020",60,,"Baeboo","erstwhile",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-03T20:17:54.107Z","2020-03-21T13:51:25.698Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Coronavirus epidemic in US peaks before June 2020",60,,"erstwhile","erstwhile",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-21T13:51:25.702Z","2020-03-21T13:51:25.698Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Coronavirus epidemic in US peaks before June 2020",66,,"credunkist","erstwhile",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-03T16:46:58.672Z","2020-03-21T13:51:25.698Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Coronavirus epidemic in US peaks before June 2020",50,,"pranomostro","erstwhile",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-23T15:15:33.912Z","2020-03-21T13:51:25.698Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2050.",25,,"Malcolm Ocean","Malcolm Ocean",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-12T21:18:11.000Z","2013-08-12T21:18:11.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2050.",66,,"themusicgod1","Malcolm Ocean",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-05T10:50:38.000Z","2013-08-12T21:18:11.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2050.",30,,"JoshuaZ","Malcolm Ocean",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-13T01:25:26.000Z","2013-08-12T21:18:11.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2050.",5,,"Theaetetus","Malcolm Ocean",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-13T17:56:40.000Z","2013-08-12T21:18:11.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on Jeremy Bentham's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers.
",51,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-05T05:41:11.000Z","2017-10-05T05:41:11.000Z","2067-10-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on Jeremy Bentham's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers.
",49,,"themusicgod1","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-05T16:50:07.000Z","2017-10-05T05:41:11.000Z","2067-10-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on Jeremy Bentham's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers.
",65,,"Jayson Virissimo","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-08T21:54:19.000Z","2017-10-05T05:41:11.000Z","2067-10-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on Jeremy Bentham's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers.
",55,,"holycow81","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-11T06:38:27.000Z","2017-10-05T05:41:11.000Z","2067-10-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050 travelling by plane would be a luxury (less than 1 % of the world population) (because of resource depletion, or others) .",15,,"RandomThinker","Osuniev",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-17T11:32:43.000Z","2013-09-05T00:43:05.000Z","2050-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050 travelling by plane would be a luxury (less than 1 % of the world population) (because of resource depletion, or others) .",10,,"procran","Osuniev",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-05T20:52:30.000Z","2013-09-05T00:43:05.000Z","2050-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050 travelling by plane would be a luxury (less than 1 % of the world population) (because of resource depletion, or others) .",35,,"JoshuaZ","Osuniev",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-05T02:53:37.000Z","2013-09-05T00:43:05.000Z","2050-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050 travelling by plane would be a luxury (less than 1 % of the world population) (because of resource depletion, or others) .",55,,"Osuniev","Osuniev",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-05T00:43:05.000Z","2013-09-05T00:43:05.000Z","2050-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Average global age higher in 2032 than 2012 --Charles Stross",90,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-14T05:10:22.000Z","2012-01-14T05:10:22.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Average global age higher in 2032 than 2012 --Charles Stross",90,,"lavalamp","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-20T17:16:49.000Z","2012-01-14T05:10:22.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Average global age higher in 2032 than 2012 --Charles Stross",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:45:14.000Z","2012-01-14T05:10:22.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Average global age higher in 2032 than 2012 --Charles Stross",93,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:22:00.201Z","2012-01-14T05:10:22.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""the trend towards urbanization continues"" 2012-2032 --Charles Stross",90,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-14T05:11:29.000Z","2012-01-14T05:11:29.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""the trend towards urbanization continues"" 2012-2032 --Charles Stross",63,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:45:45.000Z","2012-01-14T05:11:29.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""the trend towards urbanization continues"" 2012-2032 --Charles Stross",95,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:21:31.988Z","2012-01-14T05:11:29.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""the trend towards urbanization continues"" 2012-2032 --Charles Stross",95,,"lavalamp","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-20T17:16:24.000Z","2012-01-14T05:11:29.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Over the next two decades scholarly research will show that the treatment effect of homeschooling is either neutral or positive relative to government-operated schools"" - Art Carden",70,,"rebellionkid","rebellionkid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-06-24T10:10:44.000Z","2014-06-24T10:10:44.000Z","2033-04-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"""Over the next two decades scholarly research will show that the treatment effect of homeschooling is either neutral or positive relative to government-operated schools"" - Art Carden",55,,"Ham Nox","rebellionkid","I am also not confident that effects would be shown definitively, or that ""homeschooling"" is a tight enough concept to point towards a specific cluster of outcomes. There's probably just concentrations nearer the extremes.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-07-03T19:10:39.000Z","2014-06-24T10:10:44.000Z","2033-04-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"""Over the next two decades scholarly research will show that the treatment effect of homeschooling is either neutral or positive relative to government-operated schools"" - Art Carden",75,,"adbge","rebellionkid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-06-25T22:40:28.000Z","2014-06-24T10:10:44.000Z","2033-04-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"""Over the next two decades scholarly research will show that the treatment effect of homeschooling is either neutral or positive relative to government-operated schools"" - Art Carden",70,,"Michael Dickens","rebellionkid","I think this statement is very likely to be true (>70%), but the research might not be sufficiently robust to show it so I have some uncertainty there.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-06-25T18:43:25.000Z","2014-06-24T10:10:44.000Z","2033-04-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"The European Union will start raising Union-level taxes (similar to US' federal taxation) by 2030",66,,"themusicgod1","rebellionkid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-11T02:22:23.000Z","2014-06-19T23:08:03.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The European Union will start raising Union-level taxes (similar to US' federal taxation) by 2030",40,,"sdr","rebellionkid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-20T16:18:41.000Z","2014-06-19T23:08:03.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The European Union will start raising Union-level taxes (similar to US' federal taxation) by 2030",55,,"RandomThinker","rebellionkid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-07-07T06:37:46.000Z","2014-06-19T23:08:03.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The European Union will start raising Union-level taxes (similar to US' federal taxation) by 2030",50,,"rebellionkid","rebellionkid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-06-19T23:08:03.000Z","2014-06-19T23:08:03.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, archeological forensics will discover or identify an artifact with encoded (accidentally or otherwise) audio older than the phonautograms created by 19th century phonautographs.",3,,"jasticE","roxton",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-17T02:27:17.000Z","2013-01-11T14:31:00.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, archeological forensics will discover or identify an artifact with encoded (accidentally or otherwise) audio older than the phonautograms created by 19th century phonautographs.",45,,"themusicgod1","roxton",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-10T00:55:09.000Z","2013-01-11T14:31:00.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, archeological forensics will discover or identify an artifact with encoded (accidentally or otherwise) audio older than the phonautograms created by 19th century phonautographs.",5,,"Tuxedage","roxton",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-17T14:33:41.000Z","2013-01-11T14:31:00.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, archeological forensics will discover or identify an artifact with encoded (accidentally or otherwise) audio older than the phonautograms created by 19th century phonautographs.",5,,"roxton","roxton",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-11T14:31:00.000Z","2013-01-11T14:31:00.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"When he wrote The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver was aware of Overcoming Bias but was not aware of Less Wrong.",35,,"Tuxedage","HonoreDB",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-13T17:48:16.000Z","2013-01-07T20:07:43.000Z","2014-01-14T21:48:12.000Z"
"When he wrote The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver was aware of Overcoming Bias but was not aware of Less Wrong.",40,,"Peter Hurford","HonoreDB",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-08T20:00:59.000Z","2013-01-07T20:07:43.000Z","2014-01-14T21:48:12.000Z"
"When he wrote The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver was aware of Overcoming Bias but was not aware of Less Wrong.",40,,"simplicio","HonoreDB","There is a passage in the book that actually uses the words ""less wrong."" I *suspect* that that might mean Silver has encountered the website.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-07T20:35:12.000Z","2013-01-07T20:07:43.000Z","2014-01-14T21:48:12.000Z"
"When he wrote The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver was aware of Overcoming Bias but was not aware of Less Wrong.",66,,"HonoreDB","HonoreDB",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-07T20:07:43.000Z","2013-01-07T20:07:43.000Z","2014-01-14T21:48:12.000Z"
"The U.S. will re-institute the draft during this decade.",15,,"krazemon","krazemon",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T15:09:34.079Z","2020-01-05T15:09:34.074Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The U.S. will re-institute the draft during this decade.",30,,"Prickman","krazemon",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-07T02:53:01.028Z","2020-01-05T15:09:34.074Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The U.S. will re-institute the draft during this decade.",23,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","krazemon",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-08T05:59:47.740Z","2020-01-05T15:09:34.074Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The U.S. will re-institute the draft during this decade.",20,,"pranomostro","krazemon",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-11T15:46:11.777Z","2020-01-05T15:09:34.074Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"TPP ratified in Canada",50,,"Raahul_Kumar","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-01T09:29:24.000Z","2016-01-31T16:36:11.000Z","2019-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"TPP ratified in Canada",92,,"ChristianKl","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-01T01:00:33.000Z","2016-01-31T16:36:11.000Z","2019-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"TPP ratified in Canada",98,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-31T22:08:11.000Z","2016-01-31T16:36:11.000Z","2019-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"TPP ratified in Canada",95,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-31T16:36:11.000Z","2016-01-31T16:36:11.000Z","2019-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The public will either have at least six months advance notice prior to the use of the first quantum computer for bitcoin mining (w/ SHA256), or such a quantum computer will not exist prior to 2050.",48,,"themusicgod1","lavalamp",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-22T19:33:02.000Z","2014-04-10T18:34:43.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The public will either have at least six months advance notice prior to the use of the first quantum computer for bitcoin mining (w/ SHA256), or such a quantum computer will not exist prior to 2050.",70,,"player_03","lavalamp",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-04-24T02:15:03.000Z","2014-04-10T18:34:43.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The public will either have at least six months advance notice prior to the use of the first quantum computer for bitcoin mining (w/ SHA256), or such a quantum computer will not exist prior to 2050.",95,,"lavalamp","lavalamp",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-04-10T18:34:43.000Z","2014-04-10T18:34:43.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The public will either have at least six months advance notice prior to the use of the first quantum computer for bitcoin mining (w/ SHA256), or such a quantum computer will not exist prior to 2050.",95,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","lavalamp",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-04T06:10:32.000Z","2014-04-10T18:34:43.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Newspapers as we know them today will either not exist, or no longer print ink on paper"" by 2032 --Charles Stross",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-14T05:17:49.000Z","2012-01-14T05:17:49.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Newspapers as we know them today will either not exist, or no longer print ink on paper"" by 2032 --Charles Stross",63,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:50:18.000Z","2012-01-14T05:17:49.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Newspapers as we know them today will either not exist, or no longer print ink on paper"" by 2032 --Charles Stross",95,,"timmartin","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-05T09:42:50.000Z","2012-01-14T05:17:49.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Newspapers as we know them today will either not exist, or no longer print ink on paper"" by 2032 --Charles Stross",66,,"pranomostro","gwern","Unrelated guess: they will act as a status symbol.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:16:37.398Z","2012-01-14T05:17:49.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2092, ""20-40% of mammalian species, 20-60% of reptiles, 40-80% of amphibia, and maybe 50% or more of insects will be extinct."" --Charles Stross",30,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-14T05:19:37.000Z","2012-01-14T05:19:37.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2092, ""20-40% of mammalian species, 20-60% of reptiles, 40-80% of amphibia, and maybe 50% or more of insects will be extinct."" --Charles Stross",20,,"spqr0a1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-17T19:05:53.000Z","2012-01-14T05:19:37.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2092, ""20-40% of mammalian species, 20-60% of reptiles, 40-80% of amphibia, and maybe 50% or more of insects will be extinct."" --Charles Stross",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:50:44.000Z","2012-01-14T05:19:37.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2092, ""20-40% of mammalian species, 20-60% of reptiles, 40-80% of amphibia, and maybe 50% or more of insects will be extinct."" --Charles Stross",60,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:14:21.385Z","2012-01-14T05:19:37.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Between 50% and 80% of them will be city-dwellers, and their average age will be rising.""",40,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-14T05:21:03.000Z","2012-01-14T05:21:03.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Between 50% and 80% of them will be city-dwellers, and their average age will be rising.""",20,,"pranomostro","gwern","What themusicgod1 said.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:14:01.663Z","2012-01-14T05:21:03.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Between 50% and 80% of them will be city-dwellers, and their average age will be rising.""",40,,"lavalamp","gwern","(adjusting downwards on account of the conjuction)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-20T16:53:44.000Z","2012-01-14T05:21:03.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Between 50% and 80% of them will be city-dwellers, and their average age will be rising.""",27,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:51:24.000Z","2012-01-14T05:21:03.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2020, [nearly] all hybrids will be plug-ins. --Alyssa Vance",70,,"pranomostro","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-10T16:05:06.000Z","2012-11-24T02:17:37.000Z","2023-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"By 2020, [nearly] all hybrids will be plug-ins. --Alyssa Vance",54,,"themusicgod1","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T14:34:14.000Z","2012-11-24T02:17:37.000Z","2023-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"By 2020, [nearly] all hybrids will be plug-ins. --Alyssa Vance",80,,"jpet","lukeprog","Measured how? (I'm taking it to mean >90% of hybrids sold in the 2019 model year are plug-ins.)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-24T05:25:28.000Z","2012-11-24T02:17:37.000Z","2023-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"By 2020, [nearly] all hybrids will be plug-ins. --Alyssa Vance",65,,"lukeprog","lukeprog",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-24T02:17:37.000Z","2012-11-24T02:17:37.000Z","2023-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"Limb and organ (re)growth medically commercialized --Charles Stross",92,,"spqr0a1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-17T19:07:30.000Z","2012-01-14T05:25:30.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Limb and organ (re)growth medically commercialized --Charles Stross",70,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-14T05:25:30.000Z","2012-01-14T05:25:30.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Limb and organ (re)growth medically commercialized --Charles Stross",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:53:13.000Z","2012-01-14T05:25:30.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Limb and organ (re)growth medically commercialized --Charles Stross",75,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:10:14.957Z","2012-01-14T05:25:30.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Tuvalu will have fewer than 1000 year-round inhabitants by 2062.",30,,"chimpsky","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-06-12T14:24:08.000Z","2012-06-12T13:50:41.000Z","2062-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Tuvalu will have fewer than 1000 year-round inhabitants by 2062.",75,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-06-12T13:50:42.000Z","2012-06-12T13:50:41.000Z","2062-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Tuvalu will have fewer than 1000 year-round inhabitants by 2062.",51,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-27T16:08:43.000Z","2012-06-12T13:50:41.000Z","2062-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Tuvalu will have fewer than 1000 year-round inhabitants by 2062.",47,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T01:00:05.000Z","2012-06-12T13:50:41.000Z","2062-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"If Trump looses the electoral college votes, he will give up his post normally in January",80,,"PlacidPlatypus","Liging",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-03T16:02:41.661Z","2020-11-03T14:03:34.636Z","2021-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"If Trump looses the electoral college votes, he will give up his post normally in January",100,,"Liging","Liging",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-03T14:03:34.640Z","2020-11-03T14:03:34.636Z","2021-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"If Trump looses the electoral college votes, he will give up his post normally in January",95,,"chemotaxis101","Liging",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-07T15:36:25.281Z","2020-11-03T14:03:34.636Z","2021-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"If Trump looses the electoral college votes, he will give up his post normally in January",90,,"Baeboo","Liging",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-07T18:17:21.930Z","2020-11-03T14:03:34.636Z","2021-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Positions"" by Ariana Grande, #2 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #3 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",55,,"Eli Lifland","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T18:29:49.796Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Positions"" by Ariana Grande, #2 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #3 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",25,,"William Keen","Ben Rachbach","No notes","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T01:04:02.651Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Positions"" by Ariana Grande, #2 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #3 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",58,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-11T23:44:15.803Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Positions"" by Ariana Grande, #2 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #3 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",59,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-11T23:44:06.373Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Positions"" by Ariana Grande, #2 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #3 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",10,,"jungwon","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T15:29:00.844Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Laugh Now Cry Later"" by Drake Featuring Lil Durk, #3 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #4 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",65,,"Eli Lifland","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T18:29:59.523Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Laugh Now Cry Later"" by Drake Featuring Lil Durk, #3 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #4 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",20,,"William Keen","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T01:10:07.209Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Laugh Now Cry Later"" by Drake Featuring Lil Durk, #3 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #4 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",56,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-11T23:44:15.466Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Laugh Now Cry Later"" by Drake Featuring Lil Durk, #3 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #4 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",10,,"jungwon","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T15:29:01.605Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Jeremy Corbyn will become PM by 2022.",4,,"missbethann","missbethann",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-26T14:46:15.000Z","2017-10-26T14:46:15.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Jeremy Corbyn will become PM by 2022.",54,,"splorridge","missbethann",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-07T11:29:31.000Z","2017-10-26T14:46:15.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Jeremy Corbyn will become PM by 2022.",45,,"chemotaxis101","missbethann",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-27T10:12:46.000Z","2017-10-26T14:46:15.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Jeremy Corbyn will become PM by 2022.",13,,"tjwalters@me.com","missbethann","Left wing Labour victory is more probable, however.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-13T11:31:42.000Z","2017-10-26T14:46:15.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"It will be just as easy to view copyrighted films and tv shows online (with or without permission) in 10 years as it is now.",80,,"two2thehead","learnmethis",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-16T02:23:16.000Z","2012-09-26T00:25:24.000Z","2022-09-26T00:25:24.000Z"
"It will be just as easy to view copyrighted films and tv shows online (with or without permission) in 10 years as it is now.",65,,"RandomThinker","learnmethis","Not that easy right now (but not that hard either), so probably still the same 10 yrs from now.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-26T06:14:42.000Z","2012-09-26T00:25:24.000Z","2022-09-26T00:25:24.000Z"
"It will be just as easy to view copyrighted films and tv shows online (with or without permission) in 10 years as it is now.",50,,"themusicgod1","learnmethis",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:13:34.000Z","2012-09-26T00:25:24.000Z","2022-09-26T00:25:24.000Z"
"It will be just as easy to view copyrighted films and tv shows online (with or without permission) in 10 years as it is now.",90,,"learnmethis","learnmethis",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-26T00:25:24.000Z","2012-09-26T00:25:24.000Z","2022-09-26T00:25:24.000Z"
"Deafness cured by 2022",15,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T01:57:48.000Z","2010-10-26T02:29:49.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Deafness cured by 2022",25,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-09T19:26:22.577Z","2010-10-26T02:29:49.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Deafness cured by 2022",65,,"bobpage","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-22T01:47:38.000Z","2010-10-26T02:29:49.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Deafness cured by 2022",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-26T02:29:57.000Z","2010-10-26T02:29:49.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Fully reusable, single-stage-to-orbit spacecraft' in 2021",65,,"Athrithalix","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-03-16T09:47:38.000Z","2010-10-24T21:01:59.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Fully reusable, single-stage-to-orbit spacecraft' in 2021",40,,"pranomostro","gwern","Slightly too early, but SpaceX seems to be making good progress on this.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-09T19:27:02.826Z","2010-10-24T21:01:59.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Fully reusable, single-stage-to-orbit spacecraft' in 2021",5,,"Athrithalix","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-22T13:32:42.000Z","2010-10-24T21:01:59.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Fully reusable, single-stage-to-orbit spacecraft' in 2021",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T01:56:58.000Z","2010-10-24T21:01:59.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Fully reusable, single-stage-to-orbit spacecraft' in 2021",30,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-24T21:01:59.000Z","2010-10-24T21:01:59.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be at least 1 wide-scale (>100 rioters) racial riot in South Korea in the 2020s.",15,,"pranomostro","gwern","I don't know much about riots, but 100 seems to be middle-scale at least. Is that correct?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-09T19:28:38.059Z","2010-10-24T18:33:45.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be at least 1 wide-scale (>100 rioters) racial riot in South Korea in the 2020s.",15,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-10T00:06:45.323Z","2010-10-24T18:33:45.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be at least 1 wide-scale (>100 rioters) racial riot in South Korea in the 2020s.",5,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-24T18:33:46.000Z","2010-10-24T18:33:45.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be at least 1 wide-scale (>100 rioters) racial riot in South Korea in the 2020s.",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T01:55:02.000Z","2010-10-24T18:33:45.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2090 Burning of fossil fuels is resumed to replace carbon dioxide ""mined"" from the air and to try to postpone the next Ice Age by promoting global warming.' --Arthur C. Clarke",0,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-26T16:41:49.000Z","2010-10-26T16:41:49.000Z","2091-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2090 Burning of fossil fuels is resumed to replace carbon dioxide ""mined"" from the air and to try to postpone the next Ice Age by promoting global warming.' --Arthur C. Clarke",0,,"kallman","gwern","Carbon isn't valuable enough for such extraction to be worthwhile.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-22T23:08:44.000Z","2010-10-26T16:41:49.000Z","2091-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2090 Burning of fossil fuels is resumed to replace carbon dioxide ""mined"" from the air and to try to postpone the next Ice Age by promoting global warming.' --Arthur C. Clarke",1,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:46:48.894Z","2010-10-26T16:41:49.000Z","2091-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2090 Burning of fossil fuels is resumed to replace carbon dioxide ""mined"" from the air and to try to postpone the next Ice Age by promoting global warming.' --Arthur C. Clarke",1,,"anonym","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-27T20:24:02.000Z","2010-10-26T16:41:49.000Z","2091-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'African elephants are on the brink of extinction' in 2024",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T02:22:28.000Z","2010-10-27T20:57:34.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'African elephants are on the brink of extinction' in 2024",40,,"pranomostro","gwern","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_elephant#Population_estimates_and_poaching",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:44:48.944Z","2010-10-27T20:57:34.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'African elephants are on the brink of extinction' in 2024",70,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-27T20:57:34.000Z","2010-10-27T20:57:34.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'African elephants are on the brink of extinction' in 2024",60,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-01T14:07:08.000Z","2010-10-27T20:57:34.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'African elephants are on the brink of extinction' in 2024",64,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T14:00:15.000Z","2010-10-27T20:57:34.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'African elephants are on the brink of extinction' in 2024",62,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-09T13:53:32.449Z","2010-10-27T20:57:34.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Extreme poverty(WB definition 1.90 per day) to be eliminated by 2025. Poverty declined from  36 % in 1990 to 15 per cent in 2011. Projections indicate that the global extreme poverty rate has fallen further, to 9.6%, as of 2015.  ",10,,"Medea","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-08T19:50:07.000Z","2015-07-09T12:28:00.000Z","2025-05-28T18:00:00.000Z"
"Extreme poverty(WB definition 1.90 per day) to be eliminated by 2025. Poverty declined from  36 % in 1990 to 15 per cent in 2011. Projections indicate that the global extreme poverty rate has fallen further, to 9.6%, as of 2015.  ",15,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar","Reducing probability based on clarified defintion. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-08T10:57:23.000Z","2015-07-09T12:28:00.000Z","2025-05-28T18:00:00.000Z"
"Extreme poverty(WB definition 1.90 per day) to be eliminated by 2025. Poverty declined from  36 % in 1990 to 15 per cent in 2011. Projections indicate that the global extreme poverty rate has fallen further, to 9.6%, as of 2015.  ",55,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar","Interpreting eliminated to mean under 0.5%, so rounds to 0%. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-05T12:05:03.000Z","2015-07-09T12:28:00.000Z","2025-05-28T18:00:00.000Z"
"Extreme poverty(WB definition 1.90 per day) to be eliminated by 2025. Poverty declined from  36 % in 1990 to 15 per cent in 2011. Projections indicate that the global extreme poverty rate has fallen further, to 9.6%, as of 2015.  ",3,,"NickN","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T04:49:10.761Z","2015-07-09T12:28:00.000Z","2025-05-28T18:00:00.000Z"
"Extreme poverty(WB definition 1.90 per day) to be eliminated by 2025. Poverty declined from  36 % in 1990 to 15 per cent in 2011. Projections indicate that the global extreme poverty rate has fallen further, to 9.6%, as of 2015.  ",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-09T12:28:00.000Z","2015-07-09T12:28:00.000Z","2025-05-28T18:00:00.000Z"
"Extreme poverty(WB definition 1.90 per day) to be eliminated by 2025. Poverty declined from  36 % in 1990 to 15 per cent in 2011. Projections indicate that the global extreme poverty rate has fallen further, to 9.6%, as of 2015.  ",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar","India played central role in poverty reduction:UN

http://www.thestatesman.com/news/business/india-played-central-role-in-poverty-reduction-un/74198.html",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-09T12:35:05.000Z","2015-07-09T12:28:00.000Z","2025-05-28T18:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, ""solar energy will cost half or less of what fossil-fuel-based alternatives do"" - Vivek Wadhwa",20,,"EloiseRosen","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-15T23:07:12.000Z","2015-08-15T17:50:38.000Z","2025-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, ""solar energy will cost half or less of what fossil-fuel-based alternatives do"" - Vivek Wadhwa",25,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-15T17:50:38.000Z","2015-08-15T17:50:38.000Z","2025-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, ""solar energy will cost half or less of what fossil-fuel-based alternatives do"" - Vivek Wadhwa",20,,"Raahul_Kumar","btrettel","50% by 2025. Sorry Vivek, unlikely. I do expect it to be lower cost, but 10-15% only.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-25T12:05:36.000Z","2015-08-15T17:50:38.000Z","2025-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, ""solar energy will cost half or less of what fossil-fuel-based alternatives do"" - Vivek Wadhwa",35,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-15T18:22:22.000Z","2015-08-15T17:50:38.000Z","2025-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"""Automated freight transport"" widespread by 2030s",85,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-10T00:48:43.604Z","2010-10-19T19:32:55.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Automated freight transport"" widespread by 2030s",85,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-09T19:51:41.605Z","2010-10-19T19:32:55.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Automated freight transport"" widespread by 2030s",89,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T01:52:28.000Z","2010-10-19T19:32:55.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Automated freight transport"" widespread by 2030s",80,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-19T19:32:55.000Z","2010-10-19T19:32:55.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Greek military will see major action, separate from peacekeeping initiatives outside of Europe, by 2030.",12,,"pranomostro","Madplatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T23:32:46.000Z","2015-06-27T23:12:36.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Greek military will see major action, separate from peacekeeping initiatives outside of Europe, by 2030.",50,,"themusicgod1","Madplatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T23:23:08.000Z","2015-06-27T23:12:36.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Greek military will see major action, separate from peacekeeping initiatives outside of Europe, by 2030.",15,,"David","Madplatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-29T08:44:12.000Z","2015-06-27T23:12:36.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Greek military will see major action, separate from peacekeeping initiatives outside of Europe, by 2030.",60,,"Madplatypus","Madplatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-27T23:12:37.000Z","2015-06-27T23:12:36.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Gaydar] Saoirse Ronan (Saoirse Una Ronan) comes out as queer
",15,,"jazzsolo","two2thehead","Seems to me like she would have come out already if she was.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-30T03:13:33.505Z","2018-12-21T20:32:00.183Z","2068-12-22T07:30:00.000Z"
"[Gaydar] Saoirse Ronan (Saoirse Una Ronan) comes out as queer
",45,,"pranomostro","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-30T21:03:32.431Z","2018-12-21T20:32:00.183Z","2068-12-22T07:30:00.000Z"
"[Gaydar] Saoirse Ronan (Saoirse Una Ronan) comes out as queer
",65,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-21T20:32:00.198Z","2018-12-21T20:32:00.183Z","2068-12-22T07:30:00.000Z"
"[Gaydar] Saoirse Ronan (Saoirse Una Ronan) comes out as queer
",23,,"Jennifer","two2thehead","Happy to have helped! https://predictionbook.com/predictions/193607",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-28T04:56:06.106Z","2018-12-21T20:32:00.183Z","2068-12-22T07:30:00.000Z"
"'China's economy continues to boom' in 2025",80,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-29T22:46:50.000Z","2010-10-29T22:46:50.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'China's economy continues to boom' in 2025",55,,"gimpf","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-12-12T18:17:26.000Z","2010-10-29T22:46:50.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'China's economy continues to boom' in 2025",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T02:33:50.000Z","2010-10-29T22:46:50.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'China's economy continues to boom' in 2025",65,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:35:39.948Z","2010-10-29T22:46:50.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chief of the World Coal Association (WCA) Benjamin Sporton
""Demand for coal in 2040 globally will be 33 % bigger than it is now. """,40,,"Medea","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-08T19:51:46.000Z","2015-10-03T04:20:29.000Z","2030-12-25T23:00:00.000Z"
"Chief of the World Coal Association (WCA) Benjamin Sporton
""Demand for coal in 2040 globally will be 33 % bigger than it is now. """,25,,"Josh Holland","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-05T09:29:42.000Z","2015-10-03T04:20:29.000Z","2030-12-25T23:00:00.000Z"
"Chief of the World Coal Association (WCA) Benjamin Sporton
""Demand for coal in 2040 globally will be 33 % bigger than it is now. """,35,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-03T11:25:34.000Z","2015-10-03T04:20:29.000Z","2030-12-25T23:00:00.000Z"
"Chief of the World Coal Association (WCA) Benjamin Sporton
""Demand for coal in 2040 globally will be 33 % bigger than it is now. """,0,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-03T04:20:29.000Z","2015-10-03T04:20:29.000Z","2030-12-25T23:00:00.000Z"
"Google's WebP image format will be unsuccessful.",95,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-09T20:01:09.351Z","2010-09-30T23:52:46.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google's WebP image format will be unsuccessful.",75,,"saturn","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-28T03:56:29.000Z","2010-09-30T23:52:46.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google's WebP image format will be unsuccessful.",95,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-30T23:52:48.000Z","2010-09-30T23:52:46.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google's WebP image format will be unsuccessful.",96,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-29T17:52:18.508Z","2010-09-30T23:52:46.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google's WebP image format will be unsuccessful.",99,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-10T01:20:07.620Z","2010-09-30T23:52:46.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google's WebP image format will be unsuccessful.",97,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-27T07:31:19.532Z","2010-09-30T23:52:46.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"More than 25% of consumer goods will be 3D printed during 2025",5,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-12T23:48:29.000Z","2015-08-12T23:48:29.000Z","2026-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"More than 25% of consumer goods will be 3D printed during 2025",10,,"unexpectedEOF","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-13T18:07:58.000Z","2015-08-12T23:48:29.000Z","2026-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"More than 25% of consumer goods will be 3D printed during 2025",3,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-20T05:13:57.000Z","2015-08-12T23:48:29.000Z","2026-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"More than 25% of consumer goods will be 3D printed during 2025",8,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-20T11:31:18.000Z","2015-08-12T23:48:29.000Z","2026-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"""Anti-fat drugs are available"" in 2018",38,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T01:45:44.000Z","2010-10-18T17:08:23.000Z","2019-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Anti-fat drugs are available"" in 2018",50,,"Malgidus","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-27T20:50:14.000Z","2010-10-18T17:08:23.000Z","2019-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Anti-fat drugs are available"" in 2018",93,,"bobpage","gwern","Don't these already exist? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-obesity_medication",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-21T16:51:12.000Z","2010-10-18T17:08:23.000Z","2019-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Anti-fat drugs are available"" in 2018",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-18T17:08:23.000Z","2010-10-18T17:08:23.000Z","2019-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
">=10 IEDs used on US highways in 2021",0,,"jamesrom","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-30T11:15:04.725Z","2016-11-01T22:21:09.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
">=10 IEDs used on US highways in 2021",2,,"PlacidPlatypus","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-02T21:10:21.000Z","2016-11-01T22:21:09.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
">=10 IEDs used on US highways in 2021",55,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-01T22:21:09.000Z","2016-11-01T22:21:09.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
">=10 IEDs used on US highways in 2021",3,,"bobpage","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-02T04:33:28.000Z","2016-11-01T22:21:09.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A longterm (with humans present at least sixth months) colony will occur in Asteroid Belt before it occurs on Mars. ",3,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-01T23:55:01.000Z","2016-11-01T23:55:01.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A longterm (with humans present at least sixth months) colony will occur in Asteroid Belt before it occurs on Mars. ",45,,"PlacidPlatypus","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-02T21:09:24.000Z","2016-11-01T23:55:01.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A longterm (with humans present at least sixth months) colony will occur in Asteroid Belt before it occurs on Mars. ",34,,"JoshuaZ","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-06T13:57:41.000Z","2016-11-01T23:55:01.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A longterm (with humans present at least sixth months) colony will occur in Asteroid Belt before it occurs on Mars. ",60,,"RainbowSpacedancer","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-02T02:39:00.000Z","2016-11-01T23:55:01.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will be using Emacs in 10 years",70,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-06-28T23:58:44.000Z","2012-06-28T23:58:44.000Z","2022-06-28T23:58:44.000Z"
"I will be using Emacs in 10 years",35,,"chemotaxis101","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-07-01T15:29:00.000Z","2012-06-28T23:58:44.000Z","2022-06-28T23:58:44.000Z"
"I will be using Emacs in 10 years",40,,"papermachine","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-06-29T01:26:51.000Z","2012-06-28T23:58:44.000Z","2022-06-28T23:58:44.000Z"
"I will be using Emacs in 10 years",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T01:01:51.000Z","2012-06-28T23:58:44.000Z","2022-06-28T23:58:44.000Z"
"By 2038 0% of children will be underweight in Bharat.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-16T06:58:27.000Z","2015-12-16T06:58:27.000Z","2038-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2038 0% of children will be underweight in Bharat.",1,,"ChristianKl","Raahul_Kumar","Given that there are underweight children in Western states as well I find it highly likely that there will be <1% underweight children in Bharat by that date.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-16T16:15:39.000Z","2015-12-16T06:58:27.000Z","2038-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2038 0% of children will be underweight in Bharat.",1,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar","US there are 3-4% underweight http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hestat/underweight_child_07_10/underweight_child_07_10.htm and Australia is literally the only country with less than .5% underweight right now http://www.indexmundi.com/g/r.aspx?v=2224 ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-16T17:48:51.000Z","2015-12-16T06:58:27.000Z","2038-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2038 0% of children will be underweight in Bharat.",1,,"Medea","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-18T21:27:11.000Z","2015-12-16T06:58:27.000Z","2038-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Abortion illegal in at least one state in the US / Roe v. Wade overturned / passed through Senate/Congress/President/Supreme Court ",50,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-09T05:27:28.000Z","2016-11-09T05:27:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Abortion illegal in at least one state in the US / Roe v. Wade overturned / passed through Senate/Congress/President/Supreme Court ",30,,"Michael Dickens","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-10T15:22:42.000Z","2016-11-09T05:27:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Abortion illegal in at least one state in the US / Roe v. Wade overturned / passed through Senate/Congress/President/Supreme Court ",85,,"Lachann","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-11T16:29:37.000Z","2016-11-09T05:27:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Abortion illegal in at least one state in the US / Roe v. Wade overturned / passed through Senate/Congress/President/Supreme Court ",62,,"pkfalu92","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-09T07:23:25.000Z","2016-11-09T05:27:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 5 years programmers will be expected to write formally proven programs to the same or more extent as they're expected to write tests today",20,,"Jach","Jach",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-17T05:19:11.000Z","2017-11-17T05:19:11.000Z","2022-11-17T05:19:11.000Z"
"In 5 years programmers will be expected to write formally proven programs to the same or more extent as they're expected to write tests today",5,,"Athrithalix","Jach",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-17T11:51:34.000Z","2017-11-17T05:19:11.000Z","2022-11-17T05:19:11.000Z"
"In 5 years programmers will be expected to write formally proven programs to the same or more extent as they're expected to write tests today",5,,"ekr","Jach","The prediction is too vague, in some industries, formally proven software is already in use, and thus a requirement (coq, isabelle, agda, dependent types). A better prediction is when formal methods are added to the acm curriculum recomandations.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-19T11:34:09.000Z","2017-11-17T05:19:11.000Z","2022-11-17T05:19:11.000Z"
"In 5 years programmers will be expected to write formally proven programs to the same or more extent as they're expected to write tests today",2,,"crabman","Jach",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-20T17:09:13.000Z","2017-11-17T05:19:11.000Z","2022-11-17T05:19:11.000Z"
"Harvard endowment in 2020 to exceed that of 2015",77,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-02T02:35:54.000Z","2015-07-13T12:04:58.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Harvard endowment in 2020 to exceed that of 2015",23,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea","Canceling that out. Oops.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-02T02:36:45.000Z","2015-07-13T12:04:58.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Harvard endowment in 2020 to exceed that of 2015",67,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea","There we go.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-02T02:37:01.000Z","2015-07-13T12:04:58.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Harvard endowment in 2020 to exceed that of 2015",55,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T12:04:58.000Z","2015-07-13T12:04:58.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Harvard endowment in 2020 to exceed that of 2015",65,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T22:52:58.000Z","2015-07-13T12:04:58.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Harvard endowment in 2020 to exceed that of 2015",65,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-27T07:47:27.000Z","2015-07-13T12:04:58.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Harvard endowment in 2020 to exceed that of 2015",80,,"danielfilan","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-27T22:14:09.000Z","2015-07-13T12:04:58.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook.com will not be an active prediction registry in 2025.",30,,"pranomostro","gwern","Maybe a bit too confident by @gwern.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-10T21:01:53.516Z","2010-09-22T20:19:53.000Z","2025-09-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook.com will not be an active prediction registry in 2025.",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T01:37:11.000Z","2010-09-22T20:19:53.000Z","2025-09-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook.com will not be an active prediction registry in 2025.",99,,"Houshalter","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-01T01:29:00.000Z","2010-09-22T20:19:53.000Z","2025-09-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"PredictionBook.com will not be an active prediction registry in 2025.",99,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-22T20:19:53.000Z","2010-09-22T20:19:53.000Z","2025-09-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"2025 there will be about 2.7 billion with excess weight, up from 2 billion in 2010.",40,,"EloiseRosen","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-13T13:25:35.000Z","2015-10-10T03:40:48.000Z","2025-05-28T08:00:00.000Z"
"2025 there will be about 2.7 billion with excess weight, up from 2 billion in 2010.",45,,"Josh Holland","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-13T10:08:27.000Z","2015-10-10T03:40:48.000Z","2025-05-28T08:00:00.000Z"
"2025 there will be about 2.7 billion with excess weight, up from 2 billion in 2010.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-10T03:40:49.000Z","2015-10-10T03:40:48.000Z","2025-05-28T08:00:00.000Z"
"2025 there will be about 2.7 billion with excess weight, up from 2 billion in 2010.",25,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-11T18:25:46.000Z","2015-10-10T03:40:48.000Z","2025-05-28T08:00:00.000Z"
"Border checkpoints will be set up along the UK/Ireland land border by 2020",35,,"blackRust","elephantower",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-24T18:15:24.000Z","2016-07-22T21:54:45.000Z","2020-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Border checkpoints will be set up along the UK/Ireland land border by 2020",30,,"elephantower","elephantower",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-22T21:54:45.000Z","2016-07-22T21:54:45.000Z","2020-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Border checkpoints will be set up along the UK/Ireland land border by 2020",20,,"blackRust","elephantower",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-29T05:52:29.617Z","2016-07-22T21:54:45.000Z","2020-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Border checkpoints will be set up along the UK/Ireland land border by 2020",46,,"themusicgod1","elephantower",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-23T00:14:42.000Z","2016-07-22T21:54:45.000Z","2020-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Border checkpoints will be set up along the UK/Ireland land border by 2020",5,,"arrowinthedark","elephantower",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-12T02:30:23.181Z","2016-07-22T21:54:45.000Z","2020-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Next term there will be a democratic president in America",88,,"Baeboo","Adam Zerner",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T05:08:19.607Z","2017-11-30T07:21:18.000Z","2020-12-04T03:58:50.000Z"
"Next term there will be a democratic president in America",55,,"Baeboo","Adam Zerner",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-14T05:31:38.000Z","2017-11-30T07:21:18.000Z","2020-12-04T03:58:50.000Z"
"Next term there will be a democratic president in America",90,,"InquilineKea","Adam Zerner",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-22T15:23:02.062Z","2017-11-30T07:21:18.000Z","2020-12-04T03:58:50.000Z"
"Next term there will be a democratic president in America",85,,"PlacidPlatypus","Adam Zerner",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-21T19:56:19.756Z","2017-11-30T07:21:18.000Z","2020-12-04T03:58:50.000Z"
"Next term there will be a democratic president in America",80,,"Adam Zerner","Adam Zerner",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-30T07:21:19.000Z","2017-11-30T07:21:18.000Z","2020-12-04T03:58:50.000Z"
"Next term there will be a democratic president in America",60,,"PlacidPlatypus","Adam Zerner",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-13T18:43:23.000Z","2017-11-30T07:21:18.000Z","2020-12-04T03:58:50.000Z"
"Next term there will be a democratic president in America",58,,"Baeboo","Adam Zerner",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-07T17:47:19.000Z","2017-11-30T07:21:18.000Z","2020-12-04T03:58:50.000Z"
"United States pulls out of NATO",5,,"NickN","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-17T21:22:10.918Z","2016-11-09T18:26:35.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"United States pulls out of NATO",50,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-09T18:26:36.000Z","2016-11-09T18:26:35.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"United States pulls out of NATO",30,,"Lachann","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-11T16:28:37.000Z","2016-11-09T18:26:35.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"United States pulls out of NATO",7,,"sflicht","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-09T21:10:16.000Z","2016-11-09T18:26:35.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Amazon will launch a consumer-facing courier service that competes with the likes of UPS and FedEx by 2025.",70,,"unexpectedEOF","unexpectedEOF",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-21T06:13:56.000Z","2015-12-21T06:13:56.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Amazon will launch a consumer-facing courier service that competes with the likes of UPS and FedEx by 2025.",45,,"JoshuaZ","unexpectedEOF",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-22T19:35:10.000Z","2015-12-21T06:13:56.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Amazon will launch a consumer-facing courier service that competes with the likes of UPS and FedEx by 2025.",30,,"EloiseRosen","unexpectedEOF",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-22T23:45:51.000Z","2015-12-21T06:13:56.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Amazon will launch a consumer-facing courier service that competes with the likes of UPS and FedEx by 2025.",59,,"themusicgod1","unexpectedEOF",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-14T06:27:22.000Z","2015-12-21T06:13:56.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity will experience an outside context problem before 2050",68,,"divide","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-29T23:30:15.000Z","2010-09-18T09:19:38.000Z","2050-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity will experience an outside context problem before 2050",30,,"Bagricula","TheScholar","40 years too short",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-29T21:48:31.000Z","2010-09-18T09:19:38.000Z","2050-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity will experience an outside context problem before 2050",30,,"Larks","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-29T21:19:11.000Z","2010-09-18T09:19:38.000Z","2050-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity will experience an outside context problem before 2050",75,,"TheScholar","TheScholar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-18T09:19:38.000Z","2010-09-18T09:19:38.000Z","2050-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Construction of the Sagrada Família is complete in 2026",35,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:32:43.643Z","2010-11-11T22:01:17.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Construction of the Sagrada Família is complete in 2026",5,,"telegrafista","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-14T16:09:26.137Z","2010-11-11T22:01:17.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Construction of the Sagrada Família is complete in 2026",30,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-11T22:01:19.000Z","2010-11-11T22:01:17.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Construction of the Sagrada Família is complete in 2026",30,,"amadeu","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-07T19:36:42.621Z","2010-11-11T22:01:17.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Wireless electricity is ubiquitous in 2026",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-11T22:03:42.000Z","2010-11-11T22:03:42.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Wireless electricity is ubiquitous in 2026",45,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:31:06.359Z","2010-11-11T22:03:42.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Wireless electricity is ubiquitous in 2026",10,,"gimpf","gwern","not as described in the link: no beamforming for electric power transmissions",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-12-12T18:19:37.000Z","2010-11-11T22:03:42.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Wireless electricity is ubiquitous in 2026",3,,"themusicgod1","gwern","The power companies still have tremendous political power.  They aren't going away without a 10-40 year long fight.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T02:39:21.000Z","2010-11-11T22:03:42.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The ever increasing difficulty of pushing the economies of the world forward will force the nations of the world to band together into supranational entities. Not like the E.U. but more like a federation of nations banding together like the U.S.A.",3,,"jasticE","FarOutFuture1988",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-18T09:44:11.000Z","2015-05-21T11:17:40.000Z","2045-02-01T10:00:00.000Z"
"The ever increasing difficulty of pushing the economies of the world forward will force the nations of the world to band together into supranational entities. Not like the E.U. but more like a federation of nations banding together like the U.S.A.",45,,"FarOutFuture1988","FarOutFuture1988",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-21T11:17:41.000Z","2015-05-21T11:17:40.000Z","2045-02-01T10:00:00.000Z"
"The ever increasing difficulty of pushing the economies of the world forward will force the nations of the world to band together into supranational entities. Not like the E.U. but more like a federation of nations banding together like the U.S.A.",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","FarOutFuture1988","Like the European Union is much more likely. Organizations like SAARC and ASEAN is already how countries are banding together economically.

The African Union is another example. Economics first unions.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-22T01:52:54.000Z","2015-05-21T11:17:40.000Z","2045-02-01T10:00:00.000Z"
"The ever increasing difficulty of pushing the economies of the world forward will force the nations of the world to band together into supranational entities. Not like the E.U. but more like a federation of nations banding together like the U.S.A.",15,,"JoshuaZ","FarOutFuture1988",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-21T14:30:10.000Z","2015-05-21T11:17:40.000Z","2045-02-01T10:00:00.000Z"
"By mid-2026, Iraq will have a lower 'Political Rights and Civic Voice' rating from Freedom House than it does now.",45,,"Larks","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-29T21:32:58.000Z","2010-08-29T14:05:00.000Z","2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By mid-2026, Iraq will have a lower 'Political Rights and Civic Voice' rating from Freedom House than it does now.",85,,"pranomostro","gwern","They seem to have changed their scoring system, going with fractions of the maximum value.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-10T21:13:16.946Z","2010-08-29T14:05:00.000Z","2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By mid-2026, Iraq will have a lower 'Political Rights and Civic Voice' rating from Freedom House than it does now.",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T01:26:26.000Z","2010-08-29T14:05:00.000Z","2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By mid-2026, Iraq will have a lower 'Political Rights and Civic Voice' rating from Freedom House than it does now.",70,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-29T14:05:00.000Z","2010-08-29T14:05:00.000Z","2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US gives notice of withdrawal from NATO",3,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-02T22:45:45.844Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.841Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"US gives notice of withdrawal from NATO",15,,"bcongdon","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T04:38:49.952Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.841Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"US gives notice of withdrawal from NATO",5,,"peter_hurford","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-15T16:41:57.321Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.841Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"US gives notice of withdrawal from NATO",2,,"pranomostro","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-11T16:13:53.476Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.841Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"US gives notice of withdrawal from NATO",3,,"peter_hurford","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-06T15:09:22.781Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.841Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, the half-life of a career will decrease to 5 years ",18,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T02:03:32.000Z","2015-08-11T00:01:30.000Z","2026-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, the half-life of a career will decrease to 5 years ",5,,"kallman","InquilineKea","I object to ""Decrease""- depends how you define career, but tons of people have tons of different short-term jobs in their lives- Is your first job not part of your career? Your sixth? Only over so many hours counts?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-22T23:03:42.000Z","2015-08-11T00:01:30.000Z","2026-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, the half-life of a career will decrease to 5 years ",10,,"btrettel","InquilineKea","Reading a few things from this author disappoints me. He's very overconfident for some things.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-11T16:45:27.000Z","2015-08-11T00:01:30.000Z","2026-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, the half-life of a career will decrease to 5 years ",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-11T00:01:30.000Z","2015-08-11T00:01:30.000Z","2026-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Total minority population of US citizens will increase throughout Trump presidency.",91,,"splorridge","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-17T14:39:57.000Z","2016-11-17T14:39:57.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Total minority population of US citizens will increase throughout Trump presidency.",92,,"trishume","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-18T20:51:41.000Z","2016-11-17T14:39:57.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Total minority population of US citizens will increase throughout Trump presidency.",95,,"two2thehead","splorridge","Four percent hedge.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-18T16:06:23.000Z","2016-11-17T14:39:57.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Total minority population of US citizens will increase throughout Trump presidency.",95,,"Cato","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-06T05:30:07.852Z","2016-11-17T14:39:57.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will Ought get into [program]?",60,,"jungwon","Amanda N","","Unconditionally getting in","get in","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-11T20:11:50.577Z","2020-12-11T20:08:44.724Z","2021-06-11T05:00:00.000Z"
"Will Ought get into [program]?",55,,"Eli Lifland","Amanda N","","Unconditionally getting in","get in","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-11T20:14:30.714Z","2020-12-11T20:08:44.724Z","2021-06-11T05:00:00.000Z"
"Will Ought get into [program]?",60,,"Andreas S","Amanda N","","Unconditionally getting in","get in","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-11T20:14:37.498Z","2020-12-11T20:08:44.724Z","2021-06-11T05:00:00.000Z"
"Will Ought get into [program]?",50,,"Amanda N","Amanda N","","Unconditionally getting in","get in","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-11T20:18:15.023Z","2020-12-11T20:08:44.724Z","2021-06-11T05:00:00.000Z"
"Will Ought get into [program]?",50,,"jungwon","Amanda N","","Unconditionally getting in","get in","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-11T20:54:30.150Z","2020-12-11T20:08:44.724Z","2021-06-11T05:00:00.000Z"
"Will Ought get into [program]?",60,,"Amanda N","Amanda N","Updating to include conditional acceptance","Unconditionally getting in","get in","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-11T21:04:14.317Z","2020-12-11T20:08:44.724Z","2021-06-11T05:00:00.000Z"
"Uber's valuation to be less than half that of its 2015 valuation by 2022",15,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-27T06:05:27.000Z","2015-08-09T05:26:55.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Uber's valuation to be less than half that of its 2015 valuation by 2022",23,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-13T22:49:44.000Z","2015-08-09T05:26:55.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Uber's valuation to be less than half that of its 2015 valuation by 2022",18,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-04T06:56:48.000Z","2015-08-09T05:26:55.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Uber's valuation to be less than half that of its 2015 valuation by 2022",30,,"EloiseRosen","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-09T15:19:23.000Z","2015-08-09T05:26:55.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Uber's valuation to be less than half that of its 2015 valuation by 2022",45,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-09T05:26:55.000Z","2015-08-09T05:26:55.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Uber's valuation to be less than half that of its 2015 valuation by 2022",26,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-27T01:41:50.000Z","2015-08-09T05:26:55.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Uber's valuation to be less than half that of its 2015 valuation by 2022",55,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-09T14:44:41.000Z","2015-08-09T05:26:55.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"IEA: By 2035, Iraq's output rate will rise to more than 8 million barrels [per day], overtaking Russia to become the world’s second-largest exporter. ",46,,"themusicgod1","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T14:30:35.000Z","2012-11-12T22:10:56.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"IEA: By 2035, Iraq's output rate will rise to more than 8 million barrels [per day], overtaking Russia to become the world’s second-largest exporter. ",1,,"Morelia_Viridis","RandomThinker","The oil output has already peaked, making this relatively unlikely.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-14T15:44:18.000Z","2012-11-12T22:10:56.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"IEA: By 2035, Iraq's output rate will rise to more than 8 million barrels [per day], overtaking Russia to become the world’s second-largest exporter. ",50,,"Jayson Virissimo","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-13T10:16:48.000Z","2012-11-12T22:10:56.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"IEA: By 2035, Iraq's output rate will rise to more than 8 million barrels [per day], overtaking Russia to become the world’s second-largest exporter. ",45,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-12T22:10:57.000Z","2012-11-12T22:10:56.000Z","2035-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will pass the Deutschland on the IMF's ranking of world's biggest economies. Bharat will be the 4th biggest economy at GDP current prices in the world in 2020.",9,,"Temeraire","Raahul_Kumar","Germany has shrunk! Now needs a 12% growth differential, which is a lot but not totally implausible. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-01-12T00:55:09.000Z","2015-05-13T01:13:37.000Z","2020-12-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will pass the Deutschland on the IMF's ranking of world's biggest economies. Bharat will be the 4th biggest economy at GDP current prices in the world in 2020.",24,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-13T23:55:50.000Z","2015-05-13T01:13:37.000Z","2020-12-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will pass the Deutschland on the IMF's ranking of world's biggest economies. Bharat will be the 4th biggest economy at GDP current prices in the world in 2020.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar","Jesslevine won't be able to offer either a reason for 5% prediction or admit is mistaken when prediction comes to pass.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-17T09:07:20.000Z","2015-05-13T01:13:37.000Z","2020-12-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will pass the Deutschland on the IMF's ranking of world's biggest economies. Bharat will be the 4th biggest economy at GDP current prices in the world in 2020.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-13T01:13:37.000Z","2015-05-13T01:13:37.000Z","2020-12-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will pass the Deutschland on the IMF's ranking of world's biggest economies. Bharat will be the 4th biggest economy at GDP current prices in the world in 2020.",2,,"Temeraire","Raahul_Kumar","India's GDP is currently around half of Germany's. Even if India grows at a 7% CAGR and Germany at 0%, India will still be smaller. Absent measurement issues I think this requires a European land war. (I assume we are not talking PPP)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-13T22:08:26.000Z","2015-05-13T01:13:37.000Z","2020-12-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will pass the Deutschland on the IMF's ranking of world's biggest economies. Bharat will be the 4th biggest economy at GDP current prices in the world in 2020.",5,,"jesselevine","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-14T02:07:32.000Z","2015-05-13T01:13:37.000Z","2020-12-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"Only 21 LRS-Bs will actually be built. The Pentagon is planning to procure 80-100 LRS-Bs to replace the Air Force’s B-1 and B-52 bombers. The Pentagon won't achieve even 25% of its planned target.",45,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-08T10:56:07.000Z","2015-10-08T05:52:27.000Z","2030-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"Only 21 LRS-Bs will actually be built. The Pentagon is planning to procure 80-100 LRS-Bs to replace the Air Force’s B-1 and B-52 bombers. The Pentagon won't achieve even 25% of its planned target.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-08T05:52:27.000Z","2015-10-08T05:52:27.000Z","2030-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"Only 21 LRS-Bs will actually be built. The Pentagon is planning to procure 80-100 LRS-Bs to replace the Air Force’s B-1 and B-52 bombers. The Pentagon won't achieve even 25% of its planned target.",40,,"Josh Holland","Raahul_Kumar","Is this ""at most 21 will be built""?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-08T09:43:20.000Z","2015-10-08T05:52:27.000Z","2030-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"Only 21 LRS-Bs will actually be built. The Pentagon is planning to procure 80-100 LRS-Bs to replace the Air Force’s B-1 and B-52 bombers. The Pentagon won't achieve even 25% of its planned target.",60,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-01T03:55:18.000Z","2015-10-08T05:52:27.000Z","2030-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"Only 21 LRS-Bs will actually be built. The Pentagon is planning to procure 80-100 LRS-Bs to replace the Air Force’s B-1 and B-52 bombers. The Pentagon won't achieve even 25% of its planned target.",40,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-22T03:33:08.000Z","2015-10-08T05:52:27.000Z","2030-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"Zhongguo will be No 1 nation in nuclear power by 2022.",50,,"themusicgod1","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T22:53:56.000Z","2015-10-07T08:25:04.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zhongguo will be No 1 nation in nuclear power by 2022.",75,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-07T10:56:34.000Z","2015-10-07T08:25:04.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zhongguo will be No 1 nation in nuclear power by 2022.",75,,"Josh Holland","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-07T09:02:34.000Z","2015-10-07T08:25:04.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zhongguo will be No 1 nation in nuclear power by 2022.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-07T08:25:04.000Z","2015-10-07T08:25:04.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Implanted RFIDs and similar cybernetics will be mainstream (popular?) by 2030",10,,"kallman","kallman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-20T05:44:34.000Z","2010-11-20T05:44:33.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Implanted RFIDs and similar cybernetics will be mainstream (popular?) by 2030",10,,"gwern","kallman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-20T23:29:35.000Z","2010-11-20T05:44:33.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Implanted RFIDs and similar cybernetics will be mainstream (popular?) by 2030",60,,"JoshuaZ","kallman","What fraction of the population is required for this? The exact definition of popularity will alter my estimate a lot. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-03T23:19:42.000Z","2010-11-20T05:44:33.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Implanted RFIDs and similar cybernetics will be mainstream (popular?) by 2030",55,,"JoshuaZ","kallman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-09T13:49:49.359Z","2010-11-20T05:44:33.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Implanted RFIDs and similar cybernetics will be mainstream (popular?) by 2030",10,,"pranomostro","kallman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:23:03.031Z","2010-11-20T05:44:33.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Person to walk on the moon by 2025",5,,"pranomostro","Antbak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-09T20:49:27.905Z","2019-07-08T21:15:42.665Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Person to walk on the moon by 2025",10,,"JTPeterson","Antbak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-26T17:42:46.490Z","2019-07-08T21:15:42.665Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Person to walk on the moon by 2025",5,,"Antbak","Antbak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-08T21:15:42.669Z","2019-07-08T21:15:42.665Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Person to walk on the moon by 2025",9,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Antbak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-09T01:03:33.596Z","2019-07-08T21:15:42.665Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
">50% of all electrical power worldwide will be a result of nuclear energy by 2035",25,,"JoshuaZ","jesselevine","Huh. This a really tough one to estimate. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-05T14:38:29.000Z","2015-05-04T00:23:23.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
">50% of all electrical power worldwide will be a result of nuclear energy by 2035",15,,"splorridge","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-13T16:36:54.000Z","2015-05-04T00:23:23.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
">50% of all electrical power worldwide will be a result of nuclear energy by 2035",70,,"Raahul_Kumar","jesselevine","I think the odds are excellent. JoshuaZ is nuts to think fusion power will be any part of it!

Just the current asian nuclear build alone is enough to guarantee it. It does suggest that climate change will be a solved problem if it happens.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-17T08:37:33.000Z","2015-05-04T00:23:23.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
">50% of all electrical power worldwide will be a result of nuclear energy by 2035",40,,"jesselevine","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-04T00:23:24.000Z","2015-05-04T00:23:23.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US obesity rate above 28.9% in 2020",50,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-26T22:33:34.000Z","2015-08-26T22:33:34.000Z","2021-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"US obesity rate above 28.9% in 2020",50,,"EloiseRosen","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-07T14:54:57.000Z","2015-08-26T22:33:34.000Z","2021-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"US obesity rate above 28.9% in 2020",45,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-26T23:18:20.000Z","2015-08-26T22:33:34.000Z","2021-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"US obesity rate above 28.9% in 2020",93,,"themusicgod1","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T01:59:25.000Z","2015-08-26T22:33:34.000Z","2021-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2035 superconductor with critical temperature at least 200 K at 1 atmosphere of pressure will be discovered. ",60,,"Deepak","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-17T22:00:45.985Z","2015-08-27T01:50:54.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2035 superconductor with critical temperature at least 200 K at 1 atmosphere of pressure will be discovered. ",75,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-15T13:25:06.197Z","2015-08-27T01:50:54.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2035 superconductor with critical temperature at least 200 K at 1 atmosphere of pressure will be discovered. ",65,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-27T01:50:54.000Z","2015-08-27T01:50:54.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2035 superconductor with critical temperature at least 200 K at 1 atmosphere of pressure will be discovered. ",45,,"olivia","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-09T11:02:30.000Z","2015-08-27T01:50:54.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2035 superconductor with critical temperature at least 200 K at 1 atmosphere of pressure will be discovered. ",50,,"Raahul_Kumar","JoshuaZ","Superconductivity is poorly understood, so this is a pure guess.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-15T13:05:30.000Z","2015-08-27T01:50:54.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
" World's total fertility rate will fall to replacement rate by 2025.   In 1960, women worldwide had an average of 5 children. The rate has since halved, and in 2012, women had an average of 2.5 children across all regions. The World Bank is the source.",75,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar","Raahul, would you mind in the future putting your comments about relevant data in the comment text rather than in the prediction text itself? It makes things much easier to read. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-29T12:57:35.000Z","2015-08-29T07:42:11.000Z","2025-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
" World's total fertility rate will fall to replacement rate by 2025.   In 1960, women worldwide had an average of 5 children. The rate has since halved, and in 2012, women had an average of 2.5 children across all regions. The World Bank is the source.",20,,"btrettel","Raahul_Kumar","I assume the ""replacement rate"" is 2.1 Linear extrapolation suggests the rate would be about 2.34 in 2025.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-31T17:16:59.000Z","2015-08-29T07:42:11.000Z","2025-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
" World's total fertility rate will fall to replacement rate by 2025.   In 1960, women worldwide had an average of 5 children. The rate has since halved, and in 2012, women had an average of 2.5 children across all regions. The World Bank is the source.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-29T07:42:11.000Z","2015-08-29T07:42:11.000Z","2025-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
" World's total fertility rate will fall to replacement rate by 2025.   In 1960, women worldwide had an average of 5 children. The rate has since halved, and in 2012, women had an average of 2.5 children across all regions. The World Bank is the source.",50,,"EloiseRosen","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-07T14:53:04.000Z","2015-08-29T07:42:11.000Z","2025-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"""[In 2036, most] Companies that are currently large, debt-laden, listed on an exchange... and paying bonuses will be gone."" - Nassim Taleb (I interpret this less literally to large cap companies as usually structured now, 2010, based on context - NS)",10,,"gwern","Nic_Smith","How about half or more the 2010 SP 500 is bought/merged/bankrupt by 2025?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-28T20:51:15.000Z","2010-11-28T05:24:29.000Z","2037-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""[In 2036, most] Companies that are currently large, debt-laden, listed on an exchange... and paying bonuses will be gone."" - Nassim Taleb (I interpret this less literally to large cap companies as usually structured now, 2010, based on context - NS)",20,,"Nic_Smith","Nic_Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-28T05:24:31.000Z","2010-11-28T05:24:29.000Z","2037-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""[In 2036, most] Companies that are currently large, debt-laden, listed on an exchange... and paying bonuses will be gone."" - Nassim Taleb (I interpret this less literally to large cap companies as usually structured now, 2010, based on context - NS)",47,,"themusicgod1","Nic_Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T02:53:53.000Z","2010-11-28T05:24:29.000Z","2037-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""[In 2036, most] Companies that are currently large, debt-laden, listed on an exchange... and paying bonuses will be gone."" - Nassim Taleb (I interpret this less literally to large cap companies as usually structured now, 2010, based on context - NS)",15,,"pranomostro","Nic_Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:21:13.746Z","2010-11-28T05:24:29.000Z","2037-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within fifty years (2062), the world economy will experience an increase in economic growth rate comparable to the industrial and agricultural revolutions. ",46,,"themusicgod1","Aticper",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T14:02:50.000Z","2012-10-24T06:10:58.000Z","2062-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within fifty years (2062), the world economy will experience an increase in economic growth rate comparable to the industrial and agricultural revolutions. ",75,,"NathanMcKnight","Aticper",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-31T11:44:53.000Z","2012-10-24T06:10:58.000Z","2062-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within fifty years (2062), the world economy will experience an increase in economic growth rate comparable to the industrial and agricultural revolutions. ",51,,"JoshuaZ","Aticper",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-31T15:22:13.000Z","2012-10-24T06:10:58.000Z","2062-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within fifty years (2062), the world economy will experience an increase in economic growth rate comparable to the industrial and agricultural revolutions. ",60,,"Aticper","Aticper",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-24T06:10:58.000Z","2012-10-24T06:10:58.000Z","2062-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"""We will be able to control the weather"" --mariebee_; BBC",40,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-24T03:04:13.000Z","2012-01-24T03:04:13.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""We will be able to control the weather"" --mariebee_; BBC",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:57:25.000Z","2012-01-24T03:04:13.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""We will be able to control the weather"" --mariebee_; BBC",35,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T00:26:26.697Z","2012-01-24T03:04:13.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""We will be able to control the weather"" --mariebee_; BBC",65,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T05:42:27.675Z","2012-01-24T03:04:13.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Antarctica will be ""open for business""' --Dev 2; BBC",65,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-24T03:08:05.000Z","2012-01-24T03:08:05.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Antarctica will be ""open for business""' --Dev 2; BBC",63,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:57:41.000Z","2012-01-24T03:08:05.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Antarctica will be ""open for business""' --Dev 2; BBC",70,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T00:26:09.006Z","2012-01-24T03:08:05.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Antarctica will be ""open for business""' --Dev 2; BBC",65,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T05:42:00.345Z","2012-01-24T03:08:05.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Nanorobots will flow around our body fixing cells, and will be able to record our memories"" --Alister Brown, BBC",30,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T00:25:53.012Z","2012-01-24T03:10:18.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Nanorobots will flow around our body fixing cells, and will be able to record our memories"" --Alister Brown, BBC",70,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-24T03:10:18.000Z","2012-01-24T03:10:18.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Nanorobots will flow around our body fixing cells, and will be able to record our memories"" --Alister Brown, BBC",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:58:27.000Z","2012-01-24T03:10:18.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Nanorobots will flow around our body fixing cells, and will be able to record our memories"" --Alister Brown, BBC",40,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T05:41:31.411Z","2012-01-24T03:10:18.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"If you live in a major city you will be able to hail some form of automatic car ride before 2030",65,,"Baeboo","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-02T22:28:46.630Z","2020-05-26T18:08:59.458Z","2030-01-05T11:00:00.000Z"
"If you live in a major city you will be able to hail some form of automatic car ride before 2030",40,,"pvoberstein","qznc","Even if all the technology problems get solved, I'm pessimistic that regulatory hurdles will be overcome before then.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-02T22:05:23.299Z","2020-05-26T18:08:59.458Z","2030-01-05T11:00:00.000Z"
"If you live in a major city you will be able to hail some form of automatic car ride before 2030",60,,"Paul.David.Carr","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-01T02:41:48.313Z","2020-05-26T18:08:59.458Z","2030-01-05T11:00:00.000Z"
"If you live in a major city you will be able to hail some form of automatic car ride before 2030",70,,"qznc","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-26T18:08:59.462Z","2020-05-26T18:08:59.458Z","2030-01-05T11:00:00.000Z"
"If you live in a major city you will be able to hail some form of automatic car ride before 2030",35,,"pvoberstein","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-13T22:44:12.158Z","2020-05-26T18:08:59.458Z","2030-01-05T11:00:00.000Z"
"Social Security in US to still exist by 2050",86,,"Madplatypus","InquilineKea","In terms of the programming still existing, it almost certainly will. Benefits may be reduced and there will be no assets in the trust fund.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-01T19:05:05.000Z","2015-07-29T14:02:17.000Z","2051-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Social Security in US to still exist by 2050",74,,"pranomostro","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T22:51:14.000Z","2015-07-29T14:02:17.000Z","2051-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Social Security in US to still exist by 2050",60,,"qemqemqem","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-30T23:34:12.000Z","2015-07-29T14:02:17.000Z","2051-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Social Security in US to still exist by 2050",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-29T14:02:17.000Z","2015-07-29T14:02:17.000Z","2051-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"How likely are you to join a Review Co-working session?",30,,"niplav","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-08T23:49:46.610Z","2021-01-08T20:55:18.312Z","2021-01-11T08:00:00.000Z"
"How likely are you to join a Review Co-working session?",35,,"DanielFilan","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-08T22:49:14.878Z","2021-01-08T20:55:18.312Z","2021-01-11T08:00:00.000Z"
"How likely are you to join a Review Co-working session?",98,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-08T22:10:19.920Z","2021-01-08T20:55:18.312Z","2021-01-11T08:00:00.000Z"
"How likely are you to join a Review Co-working session?",90,,"habryka","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-08T22:08:19.406Z","2021-01-08T20:55:18.312Z","2021-01-11T08:00:00.000Z"
"India to have its own manned space flight by January 1, 2025",71,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-20T04:51:40.000Z","2015-08-07T18:42:48.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"India to have its own manned space flight by January 1, 2025",65,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-20T04:31:08.000Z","2015-08-07T18:42:48.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"India to have its own manned space flight by January 1, 2025",65,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-07T18:42:48.000Z","2015-08-07T18:42:48.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"India to have its own manned space flight by January 1, 2025",70,,"Raahul_Kumar","JoshuaZ","The timeframe is long enough for it to happen.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-20T01:33:41.000Z","2015-08-07T18:42:48.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"India to have its own manned space flight by January 1, 2025",66,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-13T22:53:26.000Z","2015-08-07T18:42:48.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"India to have its own manned space flight by January 1, 2025",50,,"PseudonymousUser","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-09T04:20:35.000Z","2015-08-07T18:42:48.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"India to have its own manned space flight by January 1, 2025",52,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T20:10:16.846Z","2015-08-07T18:42:48.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Live commercial sports broadcasts in holograms by 2035. --Mike Lee",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-03T16:38:06.000Z","2011-01-03T16:38:06.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Live commercial sports broadcasts in holograms by 2035. --Mike Lee",20,,"kallman","gwern","from recording I could see, but live 3d is a tonne of data...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-04T09:14:37.000Z","2011-01-03T16:38:06.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Live commercial sports broadcasts in holograms by 2035. --Mike Lee",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T03:59:32.000Z","2011-01-03T16:38:06.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Live commercial sports broadcasts in holograms by 2035. --Mike Lee",45,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:11:46.704Z","2011-01-03T16:38:06.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will sleep with the P-girl this year",85,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","RoryS",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-27T22:21:08.000Z","2015-11-17T16:05:05.000Z","2016-06-06T11:00:00.000Z"
"I will sleep with the P-girl this year",90,,"RoryS","RoryS",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-17T16:05:05.000Z","2015-11-17T16:05:05.000Z","2016-06-06T11:00:00.000Z"
"I will sleep with the P-girl this year",85,,"TheCometKing","RoryS",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-14T13:48:00.000Z","2015-11-17T16:05:05.000Z","2016-06-06T11:00:00.000Z"
"I will sleep with the P-girl this year",67,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","RoryS",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-02T02:03:05.000Z","2015-11-17T16:05:05.000Z","2016-06-06T11:00:00.000Z"
"I will sleep with the P-girl this year",100,,"hawk","RoryS","We're all gonna make it, brah",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-18T05:00:35.000Z","2015-11-17T16:05:05.000Z","2016-06-06T11:00:00.000Z"
"Within 25 years, a state with UN representation will exist whose territory incorporates portions of both Iran and Syria. ",20,,"Antisuji","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-11T00:29:38.000Z","2015-11-16T17:29:54.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within 25 years, a state with UN representation will exist whose territory incorporates portions of both Iran and Syria. ",58,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T19:05:42.415Z","2015-11-16T17:29:54.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within 25 years, a state with UN representation will exist whose territory incorporates portions of both Iran and Syria. ",10,,"ArturoGoosnargh","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-01T20:14:40.000Z","2015-11-16T17:29:54.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within 25 years, a state with UN representation will exist whose territory incorporates portions of both Iran and Syria. ",62,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-16T17:49:42.000Z","2015-11-16T17:29:54.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within 25 years, a state with UN representation will exist whose territory incorporates portions of both Iran and Syria. ",55,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-16T17:29:54.000Z","2015-11-16T17:29:54.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan in the next 10 years",1,,"Josh Holland","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-09T10:24:15.000Z","2015-11-06T19:27:04.000Z","2025-11-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan in the next 10 years",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","JoshuaZ","All wars between Bharat and Pakistan have been limited wars, over in less than 2 weeks. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-08T01:24:18.000Z","2015-11-06T19:27:04.000Z","2025-11-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan in the next 10 years",1,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-06T19:27:04.000Z","2015-11-06T19:27:04.000Z","2025-11-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan in the next 10 years",2,,"ChristianKl","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-06T20:53:24.000Z","2015-11-06T19:27:04.000Z","2025-11-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"Eliezer Yudkowsky has never read a book written by Andrea Dworkin.",51,,"themusicgod1","tedks",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-02T07:21:46.000Z","2014-01-08T22:48:37.000Z","2014-01-08T22:48:36.000Z"
"Eliezer Yudkowsky has never read a book written by Andrea Dworkin.",49,,"themusicgod1","tedks","This seems pretty easy to verify",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-02T07:13:21.000Z","2014-01-08T22:48:37.000Z","2014-01-08T22:48:36.000Z"
"Eliezer Yudkowsky has never read a book written by Andrea Dworkin.",99,,"KnaveOfAllTrades","tedks","I.e. he has not started reading more than two, and the sum of the fractions of the one or two is less than a half.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-15T23:21:50.000Z","2014-01-08T22:48:37.000Z","2014-01-08T22:48:36.000Z"
"Eliezer Yudkowsky has never read a book written by Andrea Dworkin.",90,,"itaibn","tedks",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-11T18:55:04.000Z","2014-01-08T22:48:37.000Z","2014-01-08T22:48:36.000Z"
"Eliezer Yudkowsky has never read a book written by Andrea Dworkin.",95,,"tedks","tedks",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-08T22:48:37.000Z","2014-01-08T22:48:37.000Z","2014-01-08T22:48:36.000Z"
"The Sahara desert will be smaller by square kilometers in 2112 than 2012",30,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-24T03:32:30.000Z","2012-01-24T03:32:30.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Sahara desert will be smaller by square kilometers in 2112 than 2012",6,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:59:54.000Z","2012-01-24T03:32:30.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Sahara desert will be smaller by square kilometers in 2112 than 2012",25,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T00:24:22.906Z","2012-01-24T03:32:30.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Sahara desert will be smaller by square kilometers in 2112 than 2012",49,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T05:37:59.817Z","2012-01-24T03:32:30.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Sovereign nation states will cease to exist and there will be one world government"" --krozier93; BBC",30,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-24T03:34:19.000Z","2012-01-24T03:34:19.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Sovereign nation states will cease to exist and there will be one world government"" --krozier93; BBC",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T00:00:21.000Z","2012-01-24T03:34:19.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Sovereign nation states will cease to exist and there will be one world government"" --krozier93; BBC",20,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T00:24:02.908Z","2012-01-24T03:34:19.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Sovereign nation states will cease to exist and there will be one world government"" --krozier93; BBC",25,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-15T05:34:35.087Z","2012-01-24T03:34:19.000Z","2112-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"2050: Less than 5% of the global population lives in autonomous units with populations between 10 million and 1 billion.",30,,"Anubhav","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-02T04:40:00.000Z","2012-02-02T04:40:00.000Z","2050-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"2050: Less than 5% of the global population lives in autonomous units with populations between 10 million and 1 billion.",14,,"faws","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-02T10:48:41.000Z","2012-02-02T04:40:00.000Z","2050-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"2050: Less than 5% of the global population lives in autonomous units with populations between 10 million and 1 billion.",20,,"gwern","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-02T16:28:51.000Z","2012-02-02T04:40:00.000Z","2050-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"2050: Less than 5% of the global population lives in autonomous units with populations between 10 million and 1 billion.",38,,"themusicgod1","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T00:18:23.000Z","2012-02-02T04:40:00.000Z","2050-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"The Chinese economy will exceed the American economy before 2050",70,,"Mel Eclarinal","Mel Eclarinal",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-03-31T10:56:41.000Z","2011-03-31T10:56:41.000Z","2050-03-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"The Chinese economy will exceed the American economy before 2050",85,,"kallman","Mel Eclarinal","Are we talking per capita or total economic weight? China's a sixth of the world, you know.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-04-10T03:25:02.000Z","2011-03-31T10:56:41.000Z","2050-03-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"The Chinese economy will exceed the American economy before 2050",75,,"gwern","Mel Eclarinal","given china's size, it would have to be quite a stagnation to not be larger even by 2050.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-04-09T00:53:24.000Z","2011-03-31T10:56:41.000Z","2050-03-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"The Chinese economy will exceed the American economy before 2050",92,,"themusicgod1","Mel Eclarinal",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T02:12:10.000Z","2011-03-31T10:56:41.000Z","2050-03-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"Commercialized living on Mars will not have a positive cost/benefit analysis and won't become widespread for at least 85 years. Commercialized living is defined by habitation not primarily for scientific research. ",80,,"Unknowns","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-13T10:47:15.000Z","2015-04-13T00:35:53.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Commercialized living on Mars will not have a positive cost/benefit analysis and won't become widespread for at least 85 years. Commercialized living is defined by habitation not primarily for scientific research. ",85,,"jesselevine","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-13T00:35:53.000Z","2015-04-13T00:35:53.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Commercialized living on Mars will not have a positive cost/benefit analysis and won't become widespread for at least 85 years. Commercialized living is defined by habitation not primarily for scientific research. ",90,,"RoryS","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-13T21:51:19.000Z","2015-04-13T00:35:53.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Commercialized living on Mars will not have a positive cost/benefit analysis and won't become widespread for at least 85 years. Commercialized living is defined by habitation not primarily for scientific research. ",55,,"JoshuaZ","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-13T00:38:49.000Z","2015-04-13T00:35:53.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 40 states will have some form of legal cannabis by 2024",75,,"EloiseRosen","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-09T15:22:38.000Z","2015-04-09T02:26:50.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 40 states will have some form of legal cannabis by 2024",65,,"JoshuaZ","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-09T02:51:59.000Z","2015-04-09T02:26:50.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 40 states will have some form of legal cannabis by 2024",53,,"krazemon","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-10T16:48:08.000Z","2015-04-09T02:26:50.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 40 states will have some form of legal cannabis by 2024",95,,"jesselevine","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-09T02:26:50.000Z","2015-04-09T02:26:50.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2045, each of the cities of Flagstaff, Las Vegas, Albuquerque, Clovis, Prescott, Henderson, Hobbs, and Abilene will have a population of at most 10% its population compared to the population in 2015. ",5,,"btrettel","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-26T18:41:03.000Z","2015-04-06T13:20:25.000Z","2045-01-03T08:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2045, each of the cities of Flagstaff, Las Vegas, Albuquerque, Clovis, Prescott, Henderson, Hobbs, and Abilene will have a population of at most 10% its population compared to the population in 2015. ",1,,"jesselevine","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-09T02:10:28.000Z","2015-04-06T13:20:25.000Z","2045-01-03T08:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2045, each of the cities of Flagstaff, Las Vegas, Albuquerque, Clovis, Prescott, Henderson, Hobbs, and Abilene will have a population of at most 10% its population compared to the population in 2015. ",15,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-06T13:20:25.000Z","2015-04-06T13:20:25.000Z","2045-01-03T08:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2045, each of the cities of Flagstaff, Las Vegas, Albuquerque, Clovis, Prescott, Henderson, Hobbs, and Abilene will have a population of at most 10% its population compared to the population in 2015. ",10,,"EloiseRosen","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-07T20:20:06.000Z","2015-04-06T13:20:25.000Z","2045-01-03T08:00:00.000Z"
"US helium production will crash to near-zero in 25 years. --Robert Richardson",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern","the natural gas we get it from is not going to run out by then?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T01:10:07.000Z","2010-08-20T07:50:36.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US helium production will crash to near-zero in 25 years. --Robert Richardson",45,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-11T04:41:51.167Z","2010-08-20T07:50:36.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US helium production will crash to near-zero in 25 years. --Robert Richardson",55,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-10T21:31:35.968Z","2010-08-20T07:50:36.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US helium production will crash to near-zero in 25 years. --Robert Richardson",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-20T07:50:36.000Z","2010-08-20T07:50:36.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2017, photo-realistic gaming experiences will be possible on high-end PC hardware.  ",17,,"themusicgod1","Aticper","Might be technically feasible, but VR is a more important milestone on that timescale",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:54:10.000Z","2012-10-24T06:02:03.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2017, photo-realistic gaming experiences will be possible on high-end PC hardware.  ",41,,"JoshuaZ","Aticper",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-25T03:55:17.000Z","2012-10-24T06:02:03.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2017, photo-realistic gaming experiences will be possible on high-end PC hardware.  ",35,,"RandomThinker","Aticper",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-24T19:00:48.000Z","2012-10-24T06:02:03.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2017, photo-realistic gaming experiences will be possible on high-end PC hardware.  ",80,,"Aticper","Aticper",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-24T06:02:04.000Z","2012-10-24T06:02:03.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Tesla will achieve approved full self-driving in at least one state in the USA by the end of 2024 without geofencing.",75,,"Paul.David.Carr","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-01T19:14:13.787Z","2020-01-01T19:14:13.783Z","2024-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"Tesla will achieve approved full self-driving in at least one state in the USA by the end of 2024 without geofencing.",5,,"qznc","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-03T14:09:09.033Z","2020-01-01T19:14:13.783Z","2024-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"Tesla will achieve approved full self-driving in at least one state in the USA by the end of 2024 without geofencing.",14,,"pranomostro","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-11T16:43:16.600Z","2020-01-01T19:14:13.783Z","2024-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"Tesla will achieve approved full self-driving in at least one state in the USA by the end of 2024 without geofencing.",5,,"brandyn","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-01T20:28:37.568Z","2020-01-01T19:14:13.783Z","2024-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"How likely are you to join a Guided Review Writing session?",10,,"niplav","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-08T23:49:43.568Z","2021-01-08T20:54:50.383Z","2021-01-11T08:00:00.000Z"
"How likely are you to join a Guided Review Writing session?",35,,"DanielFilan","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-08T22:49:09.728Z","2021-01-08T20:54:50.383Z","2021-01-11T08:00:00.000Z"
"How likely are you to join a Guided Review Writing session?",45,,"DanielFilan","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-08T22:49:04.139Z","2021-01-08T20:54:50.383Z","2021-01-11T08:00:00.000Z"
"How likely are you to join a Guided Review Writing session?",95,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-08T22:10:12.172Z","2021-01-08T20:54:50.383Z","2021-01-11T08:00:00.000Z"
"How likely are you to join a Guided Review Writing session?",85,,"habryka","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-08T22:08:13.251Z","2021-01-08T20:54:50.383Z","2021-01-11T08:00:00.000Z"
"How likely are you to join a Review Forecasting session?",15,,"niplav","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-08T23:49:34.946Z","2021-01-08T20:53:47.566Z","2021-01-11T08:00:00.000Z"
"How likely are you to join a Review Forecasting session?",45,,"DanielFilan","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-08T22:48:59.898Z","2021-01-08T20:53:47.566Z","2021-01-11T08:00:00.000Z"
"How likely are you to join a Review Forecasting session?",95,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-08T22:10:09.719Z","2021-01-08T20:53:47.566Z","2021-01-11T08:00:00.000Z"
"How likely are you to join a Review Forecasting session?",84,,"habryka","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-08T22:08:16.731Z","2021-01-08T20:53:47.566Z","2021-01-11T08:00:00.000Z"
"How likely are you to join a Review Forecasting session?",95,,"habryka","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-08T22:08:06.714Z","2021-01-08T20:53:47.566Z","2021-01-11T08:00:00.000Z"
"Milo Yiannopoulos becomes a woman( post-op )",1,,"moridinamael","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-16T21:42:07.000Z","2016-12-16T21:17:03.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Milo Yiannopoulos becomes a woman( post-op )",1,,"playablecharacter","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-02T21:13:54.000Z","2016-12-16T21:17:03.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Milo Yiannopoulos becomes a woman( post-op )",2,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-16T21:17:03.000Z","2016-12-16T21:17:03.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Milo Yiannopoulos becomes a woman( post-op )",1,,"Bruno Parga","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-31T06:56:41.000Z","2016-12-16T21:17:03.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"NGE: A version of the song ""Komm, süsser Tod"" will be used in _Rebuild_",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-20T03:00:44.000Z","2012-02-20T03:00:44.000Z","2018-01-01T17:12:48.000Z"
"NGE: A version of the song ""Komm, süsser Tod"" will be used in _Rebuild_",25,,"Nic_Smith","gwern","I don't think it matches the feel of Rebuild as well as the original series.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-20T20:57:25.000Z","2012-02-20T03:00:44.000Z","2018-01-01T17:12:48.000Z"
"NGE: A version of the song ""Komm, süsser Tod"" will be used in _Rebuild_",20,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-20T14:23:18.000Z","2012-02-20T03:00:44.000Z","2018-01-01T17:12:48.000Z"
"NGE: A version of the song ""Komm, süsser Tod"" will be used in _Rebuild_",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T00:26:56.000Z","2012-02-20T03:00:44.000Z","2018-01-01T17:12:48.000Z"
"US republican senator/congressman/president will say that being a trans woman is somehow terrorism. ",10,,"Bruno Parga","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-31T06:51:49.000Z","2016-12-22T18:37:24.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US republican senator/congressman/president will say that being a trans woman is somehow terrorism. ",2,,"EloiseRosen","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-31T21:32:20.000Z","2016-12-22T18:37:24.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US republican senator/congressman/president will say that being a trans woman is somehow terrorism. ",49,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-22T18:37:24.000Z","2016-12-22T18:37:24.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US republican senator/congressman/president will say that being a trans woman is somehow terrorism. ",5,,"playablecharacter","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-02T21:09:34.000Z","2016-12-22T18:37:24.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"VC Culture will die by 2040",40,,"pranomostro","optimaton",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-30T13:37:13.887Z","2019-12-30T05:28:08.967Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"VC Culture will die by 2040",10,,"Paul.David.Carr","optimaton",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-01T18:53:08.099Z","2019-12-30T05:28:08.967Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"VC Culture will die by 2040",50,,"optimaton","optimaton",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-30T05:28:08.971Z","2019-12-30T05:28:08.967Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"VC Culture will die by 2040",15,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","optimaton",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-17T08:11:59.217Z","2019-12-30T05:28:08.967Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Food will be commercially synthesized from chemical stocks like coal or atmospheric nitrogen. --J.B.S. Haldane",30,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-11T04:32:07.412Z","2010-08-18T05:15:24.000Z","2043-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Food will be commercially synthesized from chemical stocks like coal or atmospheric nitrogen. --J.B.S. Haldane",20,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-10T21:24:00.526Z","2010-08-18T05:15:24.000Z","2043-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Food will be commercially synthesized from chemical stocks like coal or atmospheric nitrogen. --J.B.S. Haldane",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-18T05:15:25.000Z","2010-08-18T05:15:24.000Z","2043-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Food will be commercially synthesized from chemical stocks like coal or atmospheric nitrogen. --J.B.S. Haldane",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:52:45.000Z","2010-08-18T05:15:24.000Z","2043-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Polygamy is legal in the UK (ie. Marriages between more than two people are permitted to take place within the country)",36,,"splorridge","penten",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-04T12:11:33.000Z","2017-01-03T08:43:22.000Z","2037-01-03T08:43:22.000Z"
"Polygamy is legal in the UK (ie. Marriages between more than two people are permitted to take place within the country)",35,,"EloiseRosen","penten",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-04T21:02:36.000Z","2017-01-03T08:43:22.000Z","2037-01-03T08:43:22.000Z"
"Polygamy is legal in the UK (ie. Marriages between more than two people are permitted to take place within the country)",50,,"penten","penten",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-03T08:43:22.000Z","2017-01-03T08:43:22.000Z","2037-01-03T08:43:22.000Z"
"Polygamy is legal in the UK (ie. Marriages between more than two people are permitted to take place within the country)",50,,"themusicgod1","penten",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-03T16:50:57.000Z","2017-01-03T08:43:22.000Z","2037-01-03T08:43:22.000Z"
"The stock market will go down under President Trump (Conditional on him having a 4 year term, Inauguration-Inauguration) ",60,,"davidmanheim","davidmanheim",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-03T15:22:56.000Z","2017-01-03T15:22:56.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"The stock market will go down under President Trump (Conditional on him having a 4 year term, Inauguration-Inauguration) ",50,,"daccount10","davidmanheim",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-22T06:02:16.000Z","2017-01-03T15:22:56.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"The stock market will go down under President Trump (Conditional on him having a 4 year term, Inauguration-Inauguration) ",47,,"themusicgod1","davidmanheim",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-03T16:56:26.000Z","2017-01-03T15:22:56.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"The stock market will go down under President Trump (Conditional on him having a 4 year term, Inauguration-Inauguration) ",80,,"playablecharacter","davidmanheim",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-05T23:32:08.000Z","2017-01-03T15:22:56.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"The stock market will go down under President Trump (Conditional on him having a 4 year term, Inauguration-Inauguration) ",40,,"daccount10","davidmanheim",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-14T04:08:57.000Z","2017-01-03T15:22:56.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"""in the year 2020, we're not even close to the kind of disaster you describe - a convergence of three disasters: global currency collapse, significant warfare between rich and poor, and environmental disasters of some significant size. We won't even be cl",98,,"pranomostro","gwern","Fortunately seems to hold up.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-10T21:23:07.026Z","2010-08-18T04:57:07.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"""in the year 2020, we're not even close to the kind of disaster you describe - a convergence of three disasters: global currency collapse, significant warfare between rich and poor, and environmental disasters of some significant size. We won't even be cl",97,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-11T04:31:19.359Z","2010-08-18T04:57:07.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"""in the year 2020, we're not even close to the kind of disaster you describe - a convergence of three disasters: global currency collapse, significant warfare between rich and poor, and environmental disasters of some significant size. We won't even be cl",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:52:29.000Z","2010-08-18T04:57:07.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"""in the year 2020, we're not even close to the kind of disaster you describe - a convergence of three disasters: global currency collapse, significant warfare between rich and poor, and environmental disasters of some significant size. We won't even be cl",95,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-18T04:57:08.000Z","2010-08-18T04:57:07.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"""in the year 2020, we're not even close to the kind of disaster you describe - a convergence of three disasters: global currency collapse, significant warfare between rich and poor, and environmental disasters of some significant size. We won't even be cl",98,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-27T07:27:47.512Z","2010-08-18T04:57:07.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will have been vaccinated against COVID-19 before 2021-04-01",55,,"JoshuaZ","kuudes",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T13:16:36.009Z","2020-10-16T23:10:54.164Z","2021-04-01T09:00:00.000Z"
"I will have been vaccinated against COVID-19 before 2021-04-01",70,,"kuudes","kuudes",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-16T23:10:54.170Z","2020-10-16T23:10:54.164Z","2021-04-01T09:00:00.000Z"
"I will have been vaccinated against COVID-19 before 2021-04-01",70,,"jasticE","kuudes",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T20:42:54.823Z","2020-10-16T23:10:54.164Z","2021-04-01T09:00:00.000Z"
"I will have been vaccinated against COVID-19 before 2021-04-01",60,,"miro","kuudes",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T06:20:15.102Z","2020-10-16T23:10:54.164Z","2021-04-01T09:00:00.000Z"
"Within five years it will be generally agreed that Egypt Flight 804 was brought down by an act of terror rather than a mechanical fault.",95,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-16T01:09:50.000Z","2016-06-16T01:09:50.000Z","2021-06-16T07:00:00.000Z"
"Within five years it will be generally agreed that Egypt Flight 804 was brought down by an act of terror rather than a mechanical fault.",53,,"themusicgod1","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-25T04:23:00.000Z","2016-06-16T01:09:50.000Z","2021-06-16T07:00:00.000Z"
"Within five years it will be generally agreed that Egypt Flight 804 was brought down by an act of terror rather than a mechanical fault.",55,,"elephantower","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-07T16:05:23.000Z","2016-06-16T01:09:50.000Z","2021-06-16T07:00:00.000Z"
"Within five years it will be generally agreed that Egypt Flight 804 was brought down by an act of terror rather than a mechanical fault.",30,,"PaxRomantica","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-16T22:56:30.000Z","2016-06-16T01:09:50.000Z","2021-06-16T07:00:00.000Z"
"Jeopardy will still be on the air in 2025.",83,,"synkarius","skateboard34",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-21T03:11:59.886Z","2019-12-12T13:35:08.959Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Jeopardy will still be on the air in 2025.",86,,"skateboard34","skateboard34",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-12T13:35:08.964Z","2019-12-12T13:35:08.959Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Jeopardy will still be on the air in 2025.",80,,"pranomostro","skateboard34",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-13T13:24:00.176Z","2019-12-12T13:35:08.959Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Jeopardy will still be on the air in 2025.",85,,"bcongdon","skateboard34",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T04:40:34.148Z","2019-12-12T13:35:08.959Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be crossover of athletes from the paralympics to the Olympics in the 2020 games.",60,,"Ben Doherty","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-20T01:22:36.000Z","2011-05-20T01:22:36.000Z","2020-01-16T01:00:00.000Z"
"There will be crossover of athletes from the paralympics to the Olympics in the 2020 games.",30,,"gwern","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-22T02:10:53.000Z","2011-05-20T01:22:36.000Z","2020-01-16T01:00:00.000Z"
"There will be crossover of athletes from the paralympics to the Olympics in the 2020 games.",20,,"pranomostro","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:21:03.048Z","2011-05-20T01:22:36.000Z","2020-01-16T01:00:00.000Z"
"There will be crossover of athletes from the paralympics to the Olympics in the 2020 games.",0,,"Baeboo","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-27T07:40:41.413Z","2011-05-20T01:22:36.000Z","2020-01-16T01:00:00.000Z"
"There will be crossover of athletes from the paralympics to the Olympics in the 2020 games.",25,,"Baeboo","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T02:36:27.669Z","2011-05-20T01:22:36.000Z","2020-01-16T01:00:00.000Z"
"""Chicago will feel more like Baton Rouge than a Northern metropolis before the end of this century.""",60,,"gwern","Nic_Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-26T22:51:46.000Z","2011-05-23T19:10:45.000Z","2099-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Chicago will feel more like Baton Rouge than a Northern metropolis before the end of this century.""",55,,"Baeboo","Nic_Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T02:33:51.434Z","2011-05-23T19:10:45.000Z","2099-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Chicago will feel more like Baton Rouge than a Northern metropolis before the end of this century.""",33,,"Nic_Smith","Nic_Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-23T19:10:46.000Z","2011-05-23T19:10:45.000Z","2099-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Chicago will feel more like Baton Rouge than a Northern metropolis before the end of this century.""",55,,"pranomostro","Nic_Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:20:04.855Z","2011-05-23T19:10:45.000Z","2099-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Final _Gerald F. Ford_-class carrier launched by 2040.",50,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T02:32:33.846Z","2011-05-26T22:53:19.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Final _Gerald F. Ford_-class carrier launched by 2040.",80,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-26T22:53:19.000Z","2011-05-26T22:53:19.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Final _Gerald F. Ford_-class carrier launched by 2040.",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-08T20:46:07.000Z","2011-05-26T22:53:19.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Final _Gerald F. Ford_-class carrier launched by 2040.",85,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:19:44.968Z","2011-05-26T22:53:19.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Ultra High Definition Television (4320p) is available in domestic homes ' by 2021",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern","we'll be watching 4000p streams but not 'television' per se.  Youtube or something will bump quality that high.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-08T20:48:16.000Z","2011-05-26T22:58:04.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Ultra High Definition Television (4320p) is available in domestic homes ' by 2021",33,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T02:08:04.507Z","2011-05-26T22:58:04.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Ultra High Definition Television (4320p) is available in domestic homes ' by 2021",20,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-26T22:58:04.000Z","2011-05-26T22:58:04.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Ultra High Definition Television (4320p) is available in domestic homes ' by 2021",35,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:18:52.355Z","2011-05-26T22:58:04.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“advances in personal aviation will cause the cost of land in big sur, ca and other remote areas within 250mi of major metropolitan cities to at least triple within the next 15 years - outperforming the s&p 500 over that period.”",1,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T14:53:53.789Z","2010-08-02T06:40:11.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“advances in personal aviation will cause the cost of land in big sur, ca and other remote areas within 250mi of major metropolitan cities to at least triple within the next 15 years - outperforming the s&p 500 over that period.”",3,,"themusicgod1","gwern","too soon.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:46:07.000Z","2010-08-02T06:40:11.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“advances in personal aviation will cause the cost of land in big sur, ca and other remote areas within 250mi of major metropolitan cities to at least triple within the next 15 years - outperforming the s&p 500 over that period.”",5,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-02T06:40:11.000Z","2010-08-02T06:40:11.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“advances in personal aviation will cause the cost of land in big sur, ca and other remote areas within 250mi of major metropolitan cities to at least triple within the next 15 years - outperforming the s&p 500 over that period.”",2,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T14:03:49.282Z","2010-08-02T06:40:11.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Between 2040 and 2050 there will be a two year period where at least 100 million people will die due to ""climate change caused food scarcity and related uprising suppression due to civil unrest"". ",55,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T23:59:21.000Z","2015-03-05T17:21:04.000Z","2051-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Between 2040 and 2050 there will be a two year period where at least 100 million people will die due to ""climate change caused food scarcity and related uprising suppression due to civil unrest"". ",1,,"Unknowns","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-13T09:46:49.000Z","2015-03-05T17:21:04.000Z","2051-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Between 2040 and 2050 there will be a two year period where at least 100 million people will die due to ""climate change caused food scarcity and related uprising suppression due to civil unrest"". ",5,,"EloiseRosen","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-05T18:27:19.000Z","2015-03-05T17:21:04.000Z","2051-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Between 2040 and 2050 there will be a two year period where at least 100 million people will die due to ""climate change caused food scarcity and related uprising suppression due to civil unrest"". ",15,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-05T17:21:04.000Z","2015-03-05T17:21:04.000Z","2051-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"“Human population of the world will peak at or below 8 billion in the 2040s and then drop dramatically.”",5,,"pranomostro","gwern","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth#World_population_in_2050",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T13:59:49.676Z","2010-08-02T06:50:21.000Z","2049-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Human population of the world will peak at or below 8 billion in the 2040s and then drop dramatically.”",15,,"Athrithalix","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-22T11:27:28.000Z","2010-08-02T06:50:21.000Z","2049-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Human population of the world will peak at or below 8 billion in the 2040s and then drop dramatically.”",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:32:38.000Z","2010-08-02T06:50:21.000Z","2049-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Human population of the world will peak at or below 8 billion in the 2040s and then drop dramatically.”",20,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-02T06:50:21.000Z","2010-08-02T06:50:21.000Z","2049-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Luminiferous Aether Theory turned out to be correct after all, big screw up/coverup dating to Michelson–Morley",0,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-13T22:33:12.000Z","2017-01-13T22:33:12.000Z","2047-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Luminiferous Aether Theory turned out to be correct after all, big screw up/coverup dating to Michelson–Morley",0,,"lukas11","themusicgod1","nothing lower than .1 allowed by prediction book, 0.0 is too extreme",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-14T16:51:44.000Z","2017-01-13T22:33:12.000Z","2047-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Luminiferous Aether Theory turned out to be correct after all, big screw up/coverup dating to Michelson–Morley",0,,"Issa Rice","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-14T20:15:47.000Z","2017-01-13T22:33:12.000Z","2047-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Luminiferous Aether Theory turned out to be correct after all, big screw up/coverup dating to Michelson–Morley",0,,"splorridge","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-16T13:55:59.000Z","2017-01-13T22:33:12.000Z","2047-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2024 USA presidential elections.",17,,"themusicgod1","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-14T02:42:55.000Z","2017-01-14T00:14:40.000Z","2023-08-16T02:00:00.000Z"
"Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2024 USA presidential elections.",6,,"splorridge","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-16T13:57:59.000Z","2017-01-14T00:14:40.000Z","2023-08-16T02:00:00.000Z"
"Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2024 USA presidential elections.",40,,"Ben Doherty","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-14T00:14:40.000Z","2017-01-14T00:14:40.000Z","2023-08-16T02:00:00.000Z"
"Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2024 USA presidential elections.",10,,"penten","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-16T08:52:45.000Z","2017-01-14T00:14:40.000Z","2023-08-16T02:00:00.000Z"
"“The End of Wheels: A country or state will ban the use of wheeled vehicles by private consumers on high capacity public roads.”",10,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T14:52:25.692Z","2010-08-02T06:46:31.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“The End of Wheels: A country or state will ban the use of wheeled vehicles by private consumers on high capacity public roads.”",20,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T14:02:38.770Z","2010-08-02T06:46:31.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“The End of Wheels: A country or state will ban the use of wheeled vehicles by private consumers on high capacity public roads.”",10,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T14:02:08.795Z","2010-08-02T06:46:31.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“The End of Wheels: A country or state will ban the use of wheeled vehicles by private consumers on high capacity public roads.”",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:45:26.000Z","2010-08-02T06:46:31.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“The End of Wheels: A country or state will ban the use of wheeled vehicles by private consumers on high capacity public roads.”",2,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-02T06:46:31.000Z","2010-08-02T06:46:31.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump uses emergency broadcast system to ask for supporters to come to rallies",29,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-14T02:40:27.000Z","2017-01-14T02:40:27.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump uses emergency broadcast system to ask for supporters to come to rallies",10,,"Michael Dickens","themusicgod1","most of the 10% probability is that someone judging this prediction has a different interpretation than I do",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-14T03:57:38.000Z","2017-01-14T02:40:27.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump uses emergency broadcast system to ask for supporters to come to rallies",12,,"bobpage","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-14T22:26:08.000Z","2017-01-14T02:40:27.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump uses emergency broadcast system to ask for supporters to come to rallies",2,,"spqr0a1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-15T19:15:01.000Z","2017-01-14T02:40:27.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Long Range Strike Bomber will cost at least $846 million per plane (in FY2016 dollars). ",80,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","quanticle","It'll get made unless something absurd happens (e.g., the US goes to war with China).",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-01T03:53:27.000Z","2015-10-28T00:32:14.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Long Range Strike Bomber will cost at least $846 million per plane (in FY2016 dollars). ",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","quanticle","If it only costs $846 million that will be doing better than the B-2 bomber. My related prediction is that there will be only Only 21 LRS-Bs.
http://predictionbook.com/predictions/152249",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-28T09:44:21.000Z","2015-10-28T00:32:14.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Long Range Strike Bomber will cost at least $846 million per plane (in FY2016 dollars). ",62,,"JoshuaZ","quanticle","Note that I'm assuming in my estimate that if the LRSB doesn't get made at all this gets judged as a no. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-28T01:12:19.000Z","2015-10-28T00:32:14.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Long Range Strike Bomber will cost at least $846 million per plane (in FY2016 dollars). ",70,,"quanticle","quanticle",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-28T00:32:14.000Z","2015-10-28T00:32:14.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Before or coinciding with the release of the Apple Watch, Apple will [announce or release an new iPod touch model (however minor the differences)] or [announce the end of the iPod touch line or brand].",60,,"RoryS","quicklystarfish",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-16T16:13:33.000Z","2015-02-16T09:44:04.000Z","2016-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Before or coinciding with the release of the Apple Watch, Apple will [announce or release an new iPod touch model (however minor the differences)] or [announce the end of the iPod touch line or brand].",60,,"sweeneyrod","quicklystarfish",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-17T20:16:46.000Z","2015-02-16T09:44:04.000Z","2016-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Before or coinciding with the release of the Apple Watch, Apple will [announce or release an new iPod touch model (however minor the differences)] or [announce the end of the iPod touch line or brand].",40,,"EloiseRosen","quicklystarfish",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-16T17:17:28.000Z","2015-02-16T09:44:04.000Z","2016-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Before or coinciding with the release of the Apple Watch, Apple will [announce or release an new iPod touch model (however minor the differences)] or [announce the end of the iPod touch line or brand].",80,,"quicklystarfish","quicklystarfish",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-16T09:44:04.000Z","2015-02-16T09:44:04.000Z","2016-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"USA will default on its debt.",85,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-06T04:16:39.000Z","2016-01-06T04:16:38.000Z","2023-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"USA will default on its debt.",1,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-06T05:13:43.000Z","2016-01-06T04:16:38.000Z","2023-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"USA will default on its debt.",1,,"EloiseRosen","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-06T19:07:20.000Z","2016-01-06T04:16:38.000Z","2023-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"USA will default on its debt.",4,,"themusicgod1","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-11T01:26:04.000Z","2016-01-06T04:16:38.000Z","2023-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, The giant impact hypothesis will no longer be the dominant scientific hypothesis for the formation of the Moon.”",2,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T14:56:26.593Z","2010-08-02T06:38:29.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, The giant impact hypothesis will no longer be the dominant scientific hypothesis for the formation of the Moon.”",5,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T14:06:04.047Z","2010-08-02T06:38:29.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, The giant impact hypothesis will no longer be the dominant scientific hypothesis for the formation of the Moon.”",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:46:46.000Z","2010-08-02T06:38:29.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, The giant impact hypothesis will no longer be the dominant scientific hypothesis for the formation of the Moon.”",1,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-02T06:38:29.000Z","2010-08-02T06:38:29.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Air Chief Marshal Arup Raha(IAF, भारतीय वायु सेना, Bharatiya Vāyu Senā)

We are looking forward to building up our combat fleet to 42 squadrons by the end of the 14th plan, by 2027",75,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-07T10:55:05.000Z","2015-10-05T10:58:58.000Z","2027-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Air Chief Marshal Arup Raha(IAF, भारतीय वायु सेना, Bharatiya Vāyu Senā)

We are looking forward to building up our combat fleet to 42 squadrons by the end of the 14th plan, by 2027",95,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-05T10:58:58.000Z","2015-10-05T10:58:58.000Z","2027-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Air Chief Marshal Arup Raha(IAF, भारतीय वायु सेना, Bharatiya Vāyu Senā)

We are looking forward to building up our combat fleet to 42 squadrons by the end of the 14th plan, by 2027",70,,"Josh Holland","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-07T09:09:17.000Z","2015-10-05T10:58:58.000Z","2027-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat's nuclear power will double to 10 000 MW by 2020.https://tinyurl.com/qds7raq",55,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-06T01:53:13.000Z","2015-10-06T01:41:59.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat's nuclear power will double to 10 000 MW by 2020.https://tinyurl.com/qds7raq",55,,"Josh Holland","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-07T09:09:00.000Z","2015-10-06T01:41:59.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat's nuclear power will double to 10 000 MW by 2020.https://tinyurl.com/qds7raq",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-06T01:41:59.000Z","2015-10-06T01:41:59.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"A public, high-speed (at least 4G speed), backwards compatible and equivalent internet to the current fibre-based system, in the HF radio spectrum, suitable for at least national propagation between nodes, implemented by 2025",20,,"Josh Holland","luxpir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-29T13:22:46.000Z","2015-09-29T09:51:21.000Z","2026-01-01T10:00:00.000Z"
"A public, high-speed (at least 4G speed), backwards compatible and equivalent internet to the current fibre-based system, in the HF radio spectrum, suitable for at least national propagation between nodes, implemented by 2025",60,,"luxpir","luxpir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-29T09:51:21.000Z","2015-09-29T09:51:21.000Z","2026-01-01T10:00:00.000Z"
"A public, high-speed (at least 4G speed), backwards compatible and equivalent internet to the current fibre-based system, in the HF radio spectrum, suitable for at least national propagation between nodes, implemented by 2025",35,,"JoshuaZ","luxpir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-29T12:02:04.000Z","2015-09-29T09:51:21.000Z","2026-01-01T10:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will reduce emission intensity of the economy by 35% from its 2005 level by 2030",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-02T10:27:30.000Z","2015-10-02T10:27:30.000Z","2030-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will reduce emission intensity of the economy by 35% from its 2005 level by 2030",35,,"Josh Holland","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-02T10:58:15.000Z","2015-10-02T10:27:30.000Z","2030-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will reduce emission intensity of the economy by 35% from its 2005 level by 2030",45,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-02T10:50:04.000Z","2015-10-02T10:27:30.000Z","2030-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will reduce emission intensity of the economy by 25% from its 2005 levels by 2020.",55,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-02T10:49:45.000Z","2015-10-02T10:36:49.000Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will reduce emission intensity of the economy by 25% from its 2005 levels by 2020.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-02T10:36:49.000Z","2015-10-02T10:36:49.000Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will reduce emission intensity of the economy by 25% from its 2005 levels by 2020.",45,,"Josh Holland","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-02T10:58:19.000Z","2015-10-02T10:36:49.000Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Number of diesel vehicles sold in US will comprise more than 4% of total vehicles sold in 2020",35,,"Josh Holland","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-05T09:30:17.000Z","2015-10-02T18:21:39.000Z","2021-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Number of diesel vehicles sold in US will comprise more than 4% of total vehicles sold in 2020",20,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-02T18:21:39.000Z","2015-10-02T18:21:39.000Z","2021-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Number of diesel vehicles sold in US will comprise more than 4% of total vehicles sold in 2020",25,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-02T18:39:27.000Z","2015-10-02T18:21:39.000Z","2021-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat's carbon dioxide peaking year will be 2030.",95,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-03T10:13:58.000Z","2015-10-03T10:13:58.000Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat's carbon dioxide peaking year will be 2030.",10,,"Josh Holland","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-05T09:29:03.000Z","2015-10-03T10:13:58.000Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat's carbon dioxide peaking year will be 2030.",4,,"Osuniev","Raahul_Kumar","Seems really unlikely that it is 2030 rather than 2029 or 2031...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-21T01:06:21.000Z","2015-10-03T10:13:58.000Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear power in Bharat will be 16 Gw by 2030.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-06T01:42:48.000Z","2015-10-06T01:42:48.000Z","2030-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear power in Bharat will be 16 Gw by 2030.",25,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-06T01:57:31.000Z","2015-10-06T01:42:48.000Z","2030-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear power in Bharat will be 16 Gw by 2030.",50,,"Josh Holland","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-07T09:08:52.000Z","2015-10-06T01:42:48.000Z","2030-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat's Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) target:63000 MWe by the year 2032.
",98,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-06T01:43:39.000Z","2015-10-06T01:43:39.000Z","2032-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat's Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) target:63000 MWe by the year 2032.
",35,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-06T01:57:18.000Z","2015-10-06T01:43:39.000Z","2032-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat's Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) target:63000 MWe by the year 2032.
",50,,"Josh Holland","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-07T09:08:39.000Z","2015-10-06T01:43:39.000Z","2032-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"250 GW of solar and 100 GW wind power by 2030.  40 % of Bharat's total power capacity(850 GW estimate) will come from renewable sources by 2030. Official Climate change pledge.
",55,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-06T01:56:52.000Z","2015-10-06T01:45:10.000Z","2030-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"250 GW of solar and 100 GW wind power by 2030.  40 % of Bharat's total power capacity(850 GW estimate) will come from renewable sources by 2030. Official Climate change pledge.
",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-06T01:45:10.000Z","2015-10-06T01:45:10.000Z","2030-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"250 GW of solar and 100 GW wind power by 2030.  40 % of Bharat's total power capacity(850 GW estimate) will come from renewable sources by 2030. Official Climate change pledge.
",60,,"Josh Holland","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-07T09:08:00.000Z","2015-10-06T01:45:10.000Z","2030-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"It takes Newport News the better part of a decade to build a single supercarrier. China has no experience building any ship the size of an aircraft carrier—even a moderate-sized one like Liaoning. A minimum of 9 years can be inferred from their statement.",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-06T01:58:38.000Z","2015-10-06T01:58:38.000Z","2020-12-25T23:00:00.000Z"
"It takes Newport News the better part of a decade to build a single supercarrier. China has no experience building any ship the size of an aircraft carrier—even a moderate-sized one like Liaoning. A minimum of 9 years can be inferred from their statement.",65,,"Josh Holland","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-07T09:07:43.000Z","2015-10-06T01:58:38.000Z","2020-12-25T23:00:00.000Z"
"It takes Newport News the better part of a decade to build a single supercarrier. China has no experience building any ship the size of an aircraft carrier—even a moderate-sized one like Liaoning. A minimum of 9 years can be inferred from their statement.",55,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-07T10:55:30.000Z","2015-10-06T01:58:38.000Z","2020-12-25T23:00:00.000Z"
"Rossiya's real GDP growth for 2016  will be at least 0.7% for full year.
",95,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-12T11:43:11.000Z","2015-10-12T11:43:11.000Z","2016-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Rossiya's real GDP growth for 2016  will be at least 0.7% for full year.
",65,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-12T14:31:15.000Z","2015-10-12T11:43:11.000Z","2016-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Rossiya's real GDP growth for 2016  will be at least 0.7% for full year.
",70,,"Josh Holland","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-13T10:07:16.000Z","2015-10-12T11:43:11.000Z","2016-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Effective herpes vaccine developed by 2040",40,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-12T19:01:23.000Z","2015-10-12T19:01:23.000Z","2041-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Effective herpes vaccine developed by 2040",25,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-12T20:26:57.000Z","2015-10-12T19:01:23.000Z","2041-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Effective herpes vaccine developed by 2040",30,,"Josh Holland","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-13T10:06:09.000Z","2015-10-12T19:01:23.000Z","2041-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Quantum version of ETH disproven by January 1, 2056",55,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-15T13:40:18.000Z","2015-10-15T13:40:18.000Z","2056-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Quantum version of ETH disproven by January 1, 2056",50,,"Josh Holland","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-16T09:36:19.000Z","2015-10-15T13:40:18.000Z","2056-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Quantum version of ETH disproven by January 1, 2056",3,,"jessriedel","JoshuaZ","So ""Quantum version of ETH disproven"" = ""There is a quantum algorithm that solves 3-SAT in subexponential time in the worst case""?  No way...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-02T21:14:27.000Z","2015-10-15T13:40:18.000Z","2056-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Theranos will be given FDA approval for the majority of their finger prick blood tests. The FDA have already approved the herpes test, and I predict that the FDA will go on to approve (most of) the remainder of the tests submitted by Theranos.   ",85,,"rhiannon","rhiannon",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-16T17:30:38.000Z","2015-10-16T17:30:38.000Z","2017-10-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Theranos will be given FDA approval for the majority of their finger prick blood tests. The FDA have already approved the herpes test, and I predict that the FDA will go on to approve (most of) the remainder of the tests submitted by Theranos.   ",65,,"JoshuaZ","rhiannon",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-16T18:33:47.000Z","2015-10-16T17:30:38.000Z","2017-10-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Theranos will be given FDA approval for the majority of their finger prick blood tests. The FDA have already approved the herpes test, and I predict that the FDA will go on to approve (most of) the remainder of the tests submitted by Theranos.   ",50,,"ChristianKl","rhiannon",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-01T01:03:36.000Z","2015-10-16T17:30:38.000Z","2017-10-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"DRACO proves effective. ",2,,"memoriesofbutter","memoriesofbutter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-16T20:49:07.000Z","2015-10-16T20:49:07.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"DRACO proves effective. ",1,,"EloiseRosen","memoriesofbutter","informed partly by this: http://slatestarcodex.com/2015/10/23/ot31-open-water/#comment-250688",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-04T23:41:02.000Z","2015-10-16T20:49:07.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"DRACO proves effective. ",4,,"JoshuaZ","memoriesofbutter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-05T00:28:37.000Z","2015-10-16T20:49:07.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Toyota said by 2050, gas-electric hybrids, plug-in hybrids, fuel-cell cars and electric vehicles will account for most of its global vehicle sales.

That means gasoline- and diesel-engine powered cars(85%) will be near zero.",73,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T19:06:41.320Z","2015-10-17T07:02:06.000Z","2045-10-18T18:45:00.000Z"
"Toyota said by 2050, gas-electric hybrids, plug-in hybrids, fuel-cell cars and electric vehicles will account for most of its global vehicle sales.

That means gasoline- and diesel-engine powered cars(85%) will be near zero.",72,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-17T12:26:46.000Z","2015-10-17T07:02:06.000Z","2045-10-18T18:45:00.000Z"
"Toyota said by 2050, gas-electric hybrids, plug-in hybrids, fuel-cell cars and electric vehicles will account for most of its global vehicle sales.

That means gasoline- and diesel-engine powered cars(85%) will be near zero.",60,,"aarongertler","Raahul_Kumar","Defining ""near zero"" as ""10% or less"". Much of my credence is conditional on new emissions laws passing in the EU, Japan, and other relevant areas.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-26T04:28:59.000Z","2015-10-17T07:02:06.000Z","2045-10-18T18:45:00.000Z"
"Toyota said by 2050, gas-electric hybrids, plug-in hybrids, fuel-cell cars and electric vehicles will account for most of its global vehicle sales.

That means gasoline- and diesel-engine powered cars(85%) will be near zero.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-17T07:02:06.000Z","2015-10-17T07:02:06.000Z","2045-10-18T18:45:00.000Z"
"Xi Jinping pledges to remove poverty in Zhongguo by 2020.
70.17 million people in the countryside live below the poverty line of 2,300 yuan (USD 376) in annual income at 2014.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-17T11:58:58.000Z","2015-10-17T11:58:58.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Xi Jinping pledges to remove poverty in Zhongguo by 2020.
70.17 million people in the countryside live below the poverty line of 2,300 yuan (USD 376) in annual income at 2014.",15,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-18T15:43:47.000Z","2015-10-17T11:58:58.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Xi Jinping pledges to remove poverty in Zhongguo by 2020.
70.17 million people in the countryside live below the poverty line of 2,300 yuan (USD 376) in annual income at 2014.",17,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Raahul_Kumar","I assume this is the context: 

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/Xi-pledges-to-remove-poverty-in-China-by-2020/articleshow/49417814.cms",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-30T07:52:36.000Z","2015-10-17T11:58:58.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Xi Jinping pledges to remove poverty in Zhongguo by 2020.
70.17 million people in the countryside live below the poverty line of 2,300 yuan (USD 376) in annual income at 2014.",21,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-22T19:13:05.000Z","2015-10-17T11:58:58.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zhongguo will be a high income country by 2022",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-28T12:16:47.000Z","2015-10-28T12:16:47.000Z","2022-12-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zhongguo will be a high income country by 2022",70,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Raahul_Kumar","^He's rather eccentric.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-01T03:36:30.000Z","2015-10-28T12:16:47.000Z","2022-12-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zhongguo will be a high income country by 2022",52,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-28T12:32:27.000Z","2015-10-28T12:16:47.000Z","2022-12-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zhongguo will be a high income country by 2022",75,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Raahul_Kumar","I see, thanks Raahul.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-14T03:07:40.000Z","2015-10-28T12:16:47.000Z","2022-12-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zhongguo will be a high income country by 2022",88,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-01T05:41:58.000Z","2015-10-28T12:16:47.000Z","2022-12-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, general consensus is that we (April 2020 US) were overreacting",30,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""General consensus will be that we were reacting stupidly. We reacted wrong. That’s an easy call. The question is, will that be widely seen as an underreaction, an overreaction, something that’s neither, or will there be a lack of consensus? What does it take to get a ‘consensus’? Who counts?

My guess is that there flat out won’t be consensus. There will be an argument. Partisan lines will be drawn. The public and the scientists will have different interpretations. And there will be those who think we reacted in the wrong ways rather than too much or too little. We’re clearly underreacting in the sense that we are not doing enough to expand testing or tracing capacity, and we’re not doing enough experimentation or data collection, and we’re not doing enough to get vaccines ready quickly or prepare for potential variolation. I expect some of that to become part of the consensus view, to the extent one exists. I also presume we’re overreacting in the sense that some of our lockdown tactics are ineffective or even counterproductive, and I expect us to realize that too. And so on.

Then again, it could be that this is simple – if death counts are higher than we expect we’ll be thought of as having ‘underreacted’ whether or not that cashes out into action. If things are contained by July and there’s no second wave, the ‘consensus’ will be that we ‘overreacted’ regardless of whether or not that makes any sense. That’s another way to look at this.

I don’t think we can be seen as by consensus overreacting unless things get contained and stay contained soon, and don’t see that as especially likely, so I’m going to sell the overreacting contract down to 30%, but stop there because people are bad at such things and find ways to rewrite history to suit their narratives. I’m going to hold the 20% on underreacting, because I expect things to be worse than the current general expectation, but I don’t see how doing more similar things (“reacting more”) is going to look like a great alternative. But it’s all murky.""",,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, general consensus is that we (April 2020 US) were overreacting",60,,"Bucky","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, general consensus is that we (April 2020 US) were overreacting",50,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, NYC widely considered worst-hit US city",95,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""Buy to 95%. Widely considered is a strange term. The story is that NYC is the place that got hit, and that’s likely to stay the same even if something worse later happened to another city. Or if another city already has been harder hit (for example New Orleans or Chicago) but it’s smaller and less visible. Plus NYC is larger than these other cities, so even if in percentage terms they get hit harder, it won’t change the narrative unless it’s a huge difference. And I don’t think it’s easy to get hit that much harder than NYC already has been, because you can only be at most 100% infected.""",,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, NYC widely considered worst-hit US city",80,,"Bucky","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, NYC widely considered worst-hit US city",90,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will be ranked No3 in the world for science by 2022(ranked by Citable documents, Scopus DB).",72,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-16T22:35:38.000Z","2015-11-30T06:51:08.000Z","2021-12-16T23:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will be ranked No3 in the world for science by 2022(ranked by Citable documents, Scopus DB).",95,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-30T06:51:08.000Z","2015-11-30T06:51:08.000Z","2021-12-16T23:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will be ranked No3 in the world for science by 2022(ranked by Citable documents, Scopus DB).",30,,"ChristianKl","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-16T22:26:52.000Z","2015-11-30T06:51:08.000Z","2021-12-16T23:00:00.000Z"
"World share in science papers for the United States fell from 33% in 2003 to 27.8% in 2012.By 2021 it will be under 22.6%.
 — Web of Science, Thomson Reuters",81,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-03T00:33:47.000Z","2015-12-09T03:52:36.000Z","2021-12-10T07:21:00.000Z"
"World share in science papers for the United States fell from 33% in 2003 to 27.8% in 2012.By 2021 it will be under 22.6%.
 — Web of Science, Thomson Reuters",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-09T03:52:36.000Z","2015-12-09T03:52:36.000Z","2021-12-10T07:21:00.000Z"
"World share in science papers for the United States fell from 33% in 2003 to 27.8% in 2012.By 2021 it will be under 22.6%.
 — Web of Science, Thomson Reuters",85,,"jessriedel","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-02T21:09:24.000Z","2015-12-09T03:52:36.000Z","2021-12-10T07:21:00.000Z"
"Brasil’s research papers in Web of Science increased in 2003 to 2012 from 1.7% to 2.7%. It's world share will be at least 3.7% by 2021.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-09T04:53:12.000Z","2015-12-09T04:53:12.000Z","2021-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Brasil’s research papers in Web of Science increased in 2003 to 2012 from 1.7% to 2.7%. It's world share will be at least 3.7% by 2021.",70,,"ChristianKl","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-16T17:22:07.000Z","2015-12-09T04:53:12.000Z","2021-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Brasil’s research papers in Web of Science increased in 2003 to 2012 from 1.7% to 2.7%. It's world share will be at least 3.7% by 2021.",68,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-16T17:45:26.000Z","2015-12-09T04:53:12.000Z","2021-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat and Zhongguo will account for more than 60% of the OECD and G20 STEM graduates. 
",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-10T11:45:40.000Z","2015-12-10T11:45:40.000Z","2030-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat and Zhongguo will account for more than 60% of the OECD and G20 STEM graduates. 
",76,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-10T11:46:35.000Z","2015-12-10T11:45:40.000Z","2030-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat and Zhongguo will account for more than 60% of the OECD and G20 STEM graduates. 
",75,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-14T06:44:26.000Z","2015-12-10T11:45:40.000Z","2030-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Fewer than 3 million US coronavirus deaths by 2021",90,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""Hold. Given what I think is the IFR, killing almost 1% of the population requires full system collapse. New York managed to get through a fifth of its population in a month without seeing a spike in the IFR, so I think this is worse than the high-death-rate scenarios that I think are plausible, especially given this is presumably the official death count. In the scenario where we get close, I expect a severe undercount. I expect a lot of people to be able to protect themselves even in a full out-of-control scenario (and in fact, in that scenario it makes more sense for people to take extreme measures and burn through savings and create debt to do so) and I expect herd immunity effects to protect us by 50% infection or so at most under realistic conditions. Giving this a 10% chance therefore seems like a lot, but betting at long odds on ‘not a complete disaster’ requires more confidence than I’d be willing to display here.""",,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Fewer than 3 million US coronavirus deaths by 2021",95,,"Bucky","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Fewer than 3 million US coronavirus deaths by 2021",90,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Fewer than 100,000 US coronavirus deaths by 2021",2,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Exact prediction: ""close to a can't happen"". Full predictor notes: ""Sell a lot. The official count is 57,000 now and we are not substantially past the peak outside of a few areas. The way down won’t be faster than the way up. Under 100,000 is close to a Can’t Happen even if we get a best case style scenario.""",,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Fewer than 100,000 US coronavirus deaths by 2021",5,,"Bucky","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Fewer than 100,000 US coronavirus deaths by 2021",10,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"J is no longer Christian.
",10,,"memoriesofbutter","memoriesofbutter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-24T16:08:11.000Z","2015-12-24T16:08:11.000Z","2030-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"J is no longer Christian.
",15,,"JoshuaZ","memoriesofbutter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-24T16:43:50.000Z","2015-12-24T16:08:11.000Z","2030-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"J is no longer Christian.
",10,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","memoriesofbutter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-26T07:30:13.000Z","2015-12-24T16:08:11.000Z","2030-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"J is no longer Christian.
",15,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","memoriesofbutter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-03T03:41:42.000Z","2015-12-24T16:08:11.000Z","2030-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"The Yemen civil war will be won by the Revolutionary Committee, and the Saudi-led Coalition(US,UK) will be defeated.",68,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-26T11:18:58.000Z","2015-12-26T09:30:13.000Z","2024-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Yemen civil war will be won by the Revolutionary Committee, and the Saudi-led Coalition(US,UK) will be defeated.",99,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-26T09:30:13.000Z","2015-12-26T09:30:13.000Z","2024-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Yemen civil war will be won by the Revolutionary Committee, and the Saudi-led Coalition(US,UK) will be defeated.",43,,"themusicgod1","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-22T18:02:09.000Z","2015-12-26T09:30:13.000Z","2024-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Magnesium infused with silicon carbide nanoparticles will be used as major structural component for cars by 2025. ",34,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-26T14:39:02.000Z","2015-12-26T14:39:02.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Magnesium infused with silicon carbide nanoparticles will be used as major structural component for cars by 2025. ",30,,"Raahul_Kumar","JoshuaZ","Possible, but so is titanium and CNT composites. Too early to predict the material of choice after steel.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-29T05:53:55.000Z","2015-12-26T14:39:02.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Magnesium infused with silicon carbide nanoparticles will be used as major structural component for cars by 2025. ",27,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-02T04:16:01.000Z","2015-12-26T14:39:02.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Magnesium infused with silicon carbide nanoparticles will be used as major structural component for cars by 2025. ",18,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T19:04:39.523Z","2015-12-26T14:39:02.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one nuclear power plant will produce usable power in Australia by 1/1/2026.",75,,"PipFoweraker","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-30T00:11:41.000Z","2015-12-30T00:11:41.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one nuclear power plant will produce usable power in Australia by 1/1/2026.",50,,"b5mith","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-02T23:16:39.000Z","2015-12-30T00:11:41.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one nuclear power plant will produce usable power in Australia by 1/1/2026.",46,,"JoshuaZ","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-03T00:34:31.000Z","2015-12-30T00:11:41.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"> 50% of new PC games to have a Linux port by 2025",70,,"espore","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-02T21:01:38.000Z","2015-07-28T11:15:31.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"> 50% of new PC games to have a Linux port by 2025",57,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-22T04:10:47.000Z","2015-07-28T11:15:31.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"> 50% of new PC games to have a Linux port by 2025",39,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T11:15:31.000Z","2015-07-28T11:15:31.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding French citizenship.",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-06T21:55:10.000Z","2016-01-06T20:35:52.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding French citizenship.",8,,"themusicgod1","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-15T15:59:27.000Z","2016-01-06T20:35:52.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding French citizenship.",3,,"PipFoweraker","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-06T20:35:52.000Z","2016-01-06T20:35:52.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"California almond production to be less than 50% that of 2015 by 2025",50,,"btrettel","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T15:29:17.000Z","2015-07-28T05:01:07.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"California almond production to be less than 50% that of 2015 by 2025",45,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T12:14:43.000Z","2015-07-28T05:01:07.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"California almond production to be less than 50% that of 2015 by 2025",55,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T05:01:07.000Z","2015-07-28T05:01:07.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one centenarian to volunteer for anti amyloid therapy by 2025",70,,"espore","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-02T20:57:24.000Z","2015-07-27T23:00:33.000Z","2026-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one centenarian to volunteer for anti amyloid therapy by 2025",35,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-27T23:09:05.000Z","2015-07-27T23:00:33.000Z","2026-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one centenarian to volunteer for anti amyloid therapy by 2025",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-27T23:00:34.000Z","2015-07-27T23:00:33.000Z","2026-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be at least one active probe in Martian orbit or on Mars at least until either January 1, 2050 or until humans visit Mars. ",61,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T19:03:47.825Z","2016-01-14T00:07:04.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be at least one active probe in Martian orbit or on Mars at least until either January 1, 2050 or until humans visit Mars. ",58,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-14T00:07:04.000Z","2016-01-14T00:07:04.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be at least one active probe in Martian orbit or on Mars at least until either January 1, 2050 or until humans visit Mars. ",55,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-17T04:33:17.000Z","2016-01-14T00:07:04.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be at least one active probe in Martian orbit or on Mars at least until either January 1, 2050 or until humans visit Mars. ",50,,"lalaithion","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-14T06:40:17.000Z","2016-01-14T00:07:04.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522",97,,"JoshuaZ","jasticE","This is I presume in the context of Elizer's comment. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-27T23:37:53.000Z","2016-01-27T12:05:46.000Z","2522-06-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522",99,,"jasticE","jasticE",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-27T12:05:46.000Z","2016-01-27T12:05:46.000Z","2522-06-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522",90,,"daniel74f","jasticE",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-29T04:42:33.000Z","2016-01-27T12:05:46.000Z","2522-06-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Godel Escher Bach will be available as a free online eBook by 2025 (in the way the Feynman lectures are)",9,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T15:21:37.000Z","2015-07-17T22:40:31.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Godel Escher Bach will be available as a free online eBook by 2025 (in the way the Feynman lectures are)",20,,"timujin","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-18T08:46:12.000Z","2015-07-17T22:40:31.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Godel Escher Bach will be available as a free online eBook by 2025 (in the way the Feynman lectures are)",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-17T22:40:32.000Z","2015-07-17T22:40:31.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cascadia megathrust earthquake (of magnitude 8+) to hit Seattle before 2030",19,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-25T17:36:51.000Z","2015-07-15T21:09:25.000Z","2031-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Cascadia megathrust earthquake (of magnitude 8+) to hit Seattle before 2030",35,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-15T21:09:25.000Z","2015-07-15T21:09:25.000Z","2031-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Cascadia megathrust earthquake (of magnitude 8+) to hit Seattle before 2030",25,,"David","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-19T13:32:39.000Z","2015-07-15T21:09:25.000Z","2031-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Bay Area lockdown (eg restaurants closed) will be extended until Election Day",10,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""Hold. If anything, that seems high, assuming it means continuous lockdown until then rather than being locked down on election day. This has to both be necessary and sufficient to large enough extents to justify waiting an incredibly long time. But there’s also a chance that this happens without a good justification. We interpret California’s actions as ‘good decision making’ and that is a possible explanation but it can also be seen as ‘abundance of caution’ or ‘California is really good at telling people they can’t do things’ which would point in a different direction when the right decision goes the other way.

There’s also the argument that, if it holds through June, that’s kind of a decision to hold indefinitely so the conditional chance it lasts a lot longer can’t be that low.""",,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Bay Area lockdown (eg restaurants closed) will be extended until Election Day",10,,"Bucky","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Bay Area lockdown (eg restaurants closed) will be extended until Election Day",10,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"At least one of the Voyagers to outlast the James Webb Space Telescope",55,,"David","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-19T13:31:40.000Z","2015-07-16T00:55:28.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one of the Voyagers to outlast the James Webb Space Telescope",52,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea","Interpreting outlast as still sending signals. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-16T00:58:44.000Z","2015-07-16T00:55:28.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one of the Voyagers to outlast the James Webb Space Telescope",25,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-16T00:55:28.000Z","2015-07-16T00:55:28.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Groupon will shut down, be acquired, or go into receivership before 2021.",70,,"unexpectedEOF","unexpectedEOF",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-14T01:14:02.000Z","2016-02-14T01:14:02.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Groupon will shut down, be acquired, or go into receivership before 2021.",73,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","unexpectedEOF",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-14T20:41:05.000Z","2016-02-14T01:14:02.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Groupon will shut down, be acquired, or go into receivership before 2021.",59,,"themusicgod1","unexpectedEOF",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-14T06:26:17.000Z","2016-02-14T01:14:02.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Eurozone sovereign debt crisis by 2022. ",82,,"splorridge","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-16T11:13:50.000Z","2016-02-16T11:04:34.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Eurozone sovereign debt crisis by 2022. ",93,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-21T01:35:22.000Z","2016-02-16T11:04:34.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Eurozone sovereign debt crisis by 2022. ",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-16T11:04:34.000Z","2016-02-16T11:04:34.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Supreme Court strikes down Texas abortion law. ",60,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-05T16:29:28.000Z","2016-03-05T16:29:28.000Z","2017-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Supreme Court strikes down Texas abortion law. ",53,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-05T17:30:51.000Z","2016-03-05T16:29:28.000Z","2017-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Supreme Court strikes down Texas abortion law. ",65,,"PipFoweraker","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-21T01:49:24.000Z","2016-03-05T16:29:28.000Z","2017-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"USA economy's long-run rate of growth of per-capita real GDP over the next 25 years will be 0.9% due to demography, education, inequality, and the federal debt --Robert J Gordon  Stanley G. Harris Professor,Social Sciences Northwestern University.",2,,"PlacidPlatypus","Raahul_Kumar","From what Raahul has said about significant figures I conclude that this prediction is accurate if and only if per-capita GDP growth is greater than .85% but less than .95%. I leave it to posterity to keep him honest when the time comes.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-22T17:38:19.000Z","2016-03-19T05:14:53.000Z","2041-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"USA economy's long-run rate of growth of per-capita real GDP over the next 25 years will be 0.9% due to demography, education, inequality, and the federal debt --Robert J Gordon  Stanley G. Harris Professor,Social Sciences Northwestern University.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-19T05:14:53.000Z","2016-03-19T05:14:53.000Z","2041-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"USA economy's long-run rate of growth of per-capita real GDP over the next 25 years will be 0.9% due to demography, education, inequality, and the federal debt --Robert J Gordon  Stanley G. Harris Professor,Social Sciences Northwestern University.",31,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-22T18:57:35.000Z","2016-03-19T05:14:53.000Z","2041-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Costa Rica, Brasil, Mauritius will be high income countries (World Bank definition) by 2020. ",90,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-03T13:29:44.000Z","2016-03-03T13:29:44.000Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Costa Rica, Brasil, Mauritius will be high income countries (World Bank definition) by 2020. ",73,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar","Interpreting as that all of them will be. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-03T16:13:10.000Z","2016-03-03T13:29:44.000Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Costa Rica, Brasil, Mauritius will be high income countries (World Bank definition) by 2020. ",6,,"mrmrpotatohead","Raahul_Kumar","25% chance for Brazil (they are going to go backwards in 15, 16, down or flat in 17, leaving only 18,19 to get back up and above 13k)
60% chance for Costa rica
40% chance for Mauritius
intersection is .25*.6*.4=6*",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-23T08:11:11.000Z","2016-03-03T13:29:44.000Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Until the end of 2037, at no point in time will the Republican and Democratic parties combined have less than 96% of members of each of the House, Senate, governors and control of legislative chambers (non-partisan ones excluded).",70,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T10:18:45.063Z","2016-04-09T06:30:32.000Z","2037-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"Until the end of 2037, at no point in time will the Republican and Democratic parties combined have less than 96% of members of each of the House, Senate, governors and control of legislative chambers (non-partisan ones excluded).",49,,"JoshuaZ","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T18:59:08.291Z","2016-04-09T06:30:32.000Z","2037-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"Until the end of 2037, at no point in time will the Republican and Democratic parties combined have less than 96% of members of each of the House, Senate, governors and control of legislative chambers (non-partisan ones excluded).",67,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-09T06:30:32.000Z","2016-04-09T06:30:32.000Z","2037-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"Until the end of 2037, at no point in time will the Republican and Democratic parties combined have less than 96% of members of each of the House, Senate, governors and control of legislative chambers (non-partisan ones excluded).",48,,"JoshuaZ","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-12T16:48:07.000Z","2016-04-09T06:30:32.000Z","2037-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"Until the end of 2037, at no point in time will the Republican and Democratic parties combined have less than 96% of members of each of the House, Senate, governors and control of legislative chambers (non-partisan ones excluded).",75,,"PlacidPlatypus","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-14T20:58:46.000Z","2016-04-09T06:30:32.000Z","2037-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"Clathrate gun fires ( rapid ( 1 C / year or more ) increase in global mean temp for 5 years attributed to clathrate methane deposit release)",20,,"NickN","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-19T02:41:19.721Z","2016-04-13T11:33:10.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Clathrate gun fires ( rapid ( 1 C / year or more ) increase in global mean temp for 5 years attributed to clathrate methane deposit release)",42,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-13T11:33:10.000Z","2016-04-13T11:33:10.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Clathrate gun fires ( rapid ( 1 C / year or more ) increase in global mean temp for 5 years attributed to clathrate methane deposit release)",15,,"JoshuaZ","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-13T13:08:23.000Z","2016-04-13T11:33:10.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In 10 years, most computers and keyboards will exclude the ""PAUSE"" key",80,,"Ben Doherty","jesselevine","An underused key is a prime target for reapropriation. It's just a sticker, not retooling",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-17T23:56:46.000Z","2016-04-26T01:16:02.000Z","2026-04-26T01:16:02.000Z"
"In 10 years, most computers and keyboards will exclude the ""PAUSE"" key",25,,"jesselevine","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-26T01:16:02.000Z","2016-04-26T01:16:02.000Z","2026-04-26T01:16:02.000Z"
"In 10 years, most computers and keyboards will exclude the ""PAUSE"" key",5,,"two2thehead","jesselevine","Assuming that current trends portend a fall in the sale of desktop PCs, I believe that manufacturers will attempt to boost flagging sales with more features. Removing a key doesn't seem like a wise idea in this case.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-17T00:07:26.000Z","2016-04-26T01:16:02.000Z","2026-04-26T01:16:02.000Z"
"The Breakthrough Starshot initiative will construct a working prototype of a laser-propelled nanocraft capable of accelerating to more than 1% of the speed of light, before 2030.",10,,"sflicht","sflicht",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-26T01:20:51.000Z","2016-04-26T01:20:51.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Breakthrough Starshot initiative will construct a working prototype of a laser-propelled nanocraft capable of accelerating to more than 1% of the speed of light, before 2030.",40,,"Paul.David.Carr","sflicht","they will need more money to achieve this, but plausible.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-26T14:01:23.000Z","2016-04-26T01:20:51.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Breakthrough Starshot initiative will construct a working prototype of a laser-propelled nanocraft capable of accelerating to more than 1% of the speed of light, before 2030.",42,,"themusicgod1","sflicht",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-26T04:14:24.000Z","2016-04-26T01:20:51.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Either mean, median or mode truck drivers in either globally or US will make <= .027 BTC/hr or equivalent",58,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-26T21:08:54.000Z","2016-04-26T21:08:54.000Z","2031-04-26T12:00:00.000Z"
"Either mean, median or mode truck drivers in either globally or US will make <= .027 BTC/hr or equivalent",50,,"jesselevine","themusicgod1","Yeah. I agree but who knows what its value will be then. I'm making my prediction based on its current value. So, 2031 me, <~$12.5/hr based on the current rate. Also, I see on truck advertisements they usually pay by the mile.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-27T16:48:31.000Z","2016-04-26T21:08:54.000Z","2031-04-26T12:00:00.000Z"
"Either mean, median or mode truck drivers in either globally or US will make <= .027 BTC/hr or equivalent",65,,"elephantower","themusicgod1","From ~10 mins of research, the median salary of truck drivers worldwide appears to be somewhere around .001 BTC, and I'd generally expect bitcoin to gain value and truckers to get paid less (b/c of automation) in 2031",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-02T21:31:52.000Z","2016-04-26T21:08:54.000Z","2031-04-26T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google Plus will continue to be actively supported by Google through 2021, with growth in active users.",72,,"Paul.David.Carr","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-29T17:56:14.000Z","2016-04-29T17:56:14.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google Plus will continue to be actively supported by Google through 2021, with growth in active users.",41,,"themusicgod1","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-29T22:35:09.000Z","2016-04-29T17:56:14.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google Plus will continue to be actively supported by Google through 2021, with growth in active users.",51,,"sflicht","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-30T09:53:45.000Z","2016-04-29T17:56:14.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google Plus will continue to be actively supported by Google through 2021, with growth in active users.",0,,"themusicgod1","Paul.David.Carr","Ah, screw it. Hedge.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-30T01:49:43.000Z","2016-04-29T17:56:14.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A supernova in the Miky Way will first be detected by it's neutrino and gravitational wave emission, prior to it's brightening allowing observation by optical telescopes.",90,,"AdamSmith","AdamSmith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-30T00:39:24.000Z","2016-04-30T00:39:24.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A supernova in the Miky Way will first be detected by it's neutrino and gravitational wave emission, prior to it's brightening allowing observation by optical telescopes.",10,,"Paul.David.Carr","AdamSmith","Taking this literally, not too sure about the gravitational waves.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-30T19:56:56.000Z","2016-04-30T00:39:24.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A supernova in the Miky Way will first be detected by it's neutrino and gravitational wave emission, prior to it's brightening allowing observation by optical telescopes.",12,,"JoshuaZ","AdamSmith","Major conjunction here since the Milky Way only has about one supernova a every fifty years or so, ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-01T18:19:25.000Z","2016-04-30T00:39:24.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Craig S. Wright not only fails to verify himself by demonstrating possession of satoshi's private key (eg 174731), but sometime after may 2, 2017 year tries to claim the same thing without proof again in a public way",40,,"ioannes","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-03T19:23:22.000Z","2016-05-02T18:59:49.000Z","2018-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Craig S. Wright not only fails to verify himself by demonstrating possession of satoshi's private key (eg 174731), but sometime after may 2, 2017 year tries to claim the same thing without proof again in a public way",21,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-02T18:59:49.000Z","2016-05-02T18:59:49.000Z","2018-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Craig S. Wright not only fails to verify himself by demonstrating possession of satoshi's private key (eg 174731), but sometime after may 2, 2017 year tries to claim the same thing without proof again in a public way",20,,"mrmrpotatohead","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-04T22:22:49.000Z","2016-05-02T18:59:49.000Z","2018-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Adobe to survive to 2025",61,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea","Most people have no idea how much stuff Adobe has their tendrils in. Only real threat is Acquisition & dismembering from something like Microsoft",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-28T16:53:39.000Z","2015-07-11T20:13:49.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Adobe to survive to 2025",70,,"sdr","InquilineKea","Incorporated in 1982, recently pivoted to cloud-based offerings, expanding rapidly, likely.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-14T19:56:49.000Z","2015-07-11T20:13:49.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Adobe to survive to 2025",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T20:13:49.000Z","2015-07-11T20:13:49.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Daniel Dennett to do an IAmA on reddit by 2020",32,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-01T17:28:49.000Z","2015-07-11T06:56:17.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Daniel Dennett to do an IAmA on reddit by 2020",10,,"EloiseRosen","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-14T01:29:28.000Z","2015-07-11T06:56:17.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Daniel Dennett to do an IAmA on reddit by 2020",80,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T06:56:17.000Z","2015-07-11T06:56:17.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 10% of 18-year olds in the US will be unschooled by 2030",5,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea","Per Brettel. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-12T19:13:23.000Z","2015-07-11T20:48:51.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 10% of 18-year olds in the US will be unschooled by 2030",5,,"btrettel","InquilineKea","Did some linear extrapolation assuming all home-schoolers are unschooled. This seems unlikely even if I use optimistic data for the number of home-schoolers.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-12T18:25:06.000Z","2015-07-11T20:48:51.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 10% of 18-year olds in the US will be unschooled by 2030",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T20:48:51.000Z","2015-07-11T20:48:51.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bioviva's Liz Parrish to have demonstrated convincing evidence of age reversal with gene therapy",24,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-21T20:21:33.000Z","2016-05-21T20:21:33.000Z","2040-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Bioviva's Liz Parrish to have demonstrated convincing evidence of age reversal with gene therapy",35,,"Paul.David.Carr","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-27T16:11:54.000Z","2016-05-21T20:21:33.000Z","2040-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Bioviva's Liz Parrish to have demonstrated convincing evidence of age reversal with gene therapy",42,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-27T23:59:38.000Z","2016-05-21T20:21:33.000Z","2040-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"MIT Course 6 (EECS) to still be MIT's most popular major by 2020",70,,"elephantower","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-05T05:42:42.000Z","2016-05-21T20:38:47.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"MIT Course 6 (EECS) to still be MIT's most popular major by 2020",70,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-21T20:38:47.000Z","2016-05-21T20:38:47.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"MIT Course 6 (EECS) to still be MIT's most popular major by 2020",58,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-21T21:45:50.000Z","2016-05-21T20:38:47.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Food shortages (eg grocery/food stores with empty shelves) reported at some point before 2019 in South Africa",41,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-12T20:47:12.000Z","2016-06-12T20:47:12.000Z","2019-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Food shortages (eg grocery/food stores with empty shelves) reported at some point before 2019 in South Africa",95,,"theredarmy","themusicgod1","any natural disaster will create panic and hoarding which will cause grocery stores to run out of food, but i don't expect the situation will last long.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-14T01:01:23.000Z","2016-06-12T20:47:12.000Z","2019-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Food shortages (eg grocery/food stores with empty shelves) reported at some point before 2019 in South Africa",65,,"elephantower","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-15T23:20:59.000Z","2016-06-12T20:47:12.000Z","2019-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The three “Deep South” states — Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul - to secede from Brazil sometime before 2030",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-21T20:34:33.000Z","2016-05-21T20:34:33.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The three “Deep South” states — Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul - to secede from Brazil sometime before 2030",30,,"splorridge","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-24T13:30:23.000Z","2016-05-21T20:34:33.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The three “Deep South” states — Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul - to secede from Brazil sometime before 2030",2,,"elephantower","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-03T20:08:18.000Z","2016-05-21T20:34:33.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computer Science to remain Harvard's most popular undergraduate major in 2020",60,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-21T20:39:08.000Z","2016-05-21T20:39:08.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computer Science to remain Harvard's most popular undergraduate major in 2020",57,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-21T21:45:59.000Z","2016-05-21T20:39:08.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computer Science to remain Harvard's most popular undergraduate major in 2020",75,,"olivia","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-26T18:55:45.000Z","2016-05-21T20:39:08.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alzheimer's to be a curable illness by 2030",35,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T13:49:36.000Z","2015-07-11T06:32:00.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alzheimer's to be a curable illness by 2030",10,,"btrettel","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T19:33:31.000Z","2015-07-11T06:32:00.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alzheimer's to be a curable illness by 2030",25,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T06:32:00.000Z","2015-07-11T06:32:00.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Prince William comes out as gay/bisexual.",12,,"splorridge","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-16T10:14:54.000Z","2016-06-16T10:14:54.000Z","2080-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Prince William comes out as gay/bisexual.",14,,"themusicgod1","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-16T13:51:26.000Z","2016-06-16T10:14:54.000Z","2080-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Prince William comes out as gay/bisexual.",6,,"Bruno Parga","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-20T05:06:41.000Z","2016-06-16T10:14:54.000Z","2080-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The DAO hack will result in a lawsuit (publicly known) by January 2018.",55,,"bitbatbot","bitbatbot",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-19T18:50:57.000Z","2016-06-19T18:50:57.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The DAO hack will result in a lawsuit (publicly known) by January 2018.",58,,"themusicgod1","bitbatbot",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-19T23:37:07.000Z","2016-06-19T18:50:57.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The DAO hack will result in a lawsuit (publicly known) by January 2018.",85,,"bobpage","bitbatbot",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-20T06:59:01.000Z","2016-06-19T18:50:57.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2100.",4,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-30T02:14:18.000Z","2016-06-29T01:28:32.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2100.",93,,"themusicgod1","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-02T13:27:04.000Z","2016-06-29T01:28:32.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2100.",35,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely","@TheMusicGod: That's crazy high.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T16:20:39.511Z","2016-06-29T01:28:32.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2100.",8,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-29T01:28:32.000Z","2016-06-29T01:28:32.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2200.",12,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-29T01:30:07.000Z","2016-06-29T01:30:07.000Z","2201-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2200.",10,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-30T02:14:34.000Z","2016-06-29T01:30:07.000Z","2201-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2200.",65,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T16:21:03.263Z","2016-06-29T01:30:07.000Z","2201-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2200.",45,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T16:21:30.716Z","2016-06-29T01:30:07.000Z","2201-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2200.",94,,"themusicgod1","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-02T13:27:59.000Z","2016-06-29T01:30:07.000Z","2201-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, an orbital-class rocket has been reused 10 times.",0,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo","","Author note: i.e. boosted something to orbit multiple times","space","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T08:53:29.735Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, an orbital-class rocket has been reused 10 times.",70,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"Author note: i.e. boosted something to orbit multiple times","space","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, an orbital-class rocket has been reused 10 times.",90,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo","","Author note: i.e. boosted something to orbit multiple times","space","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T08:53:29.677Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, an orbital-class rocket has been reused 10 times.",90,,"Timothy","Daniel Kokotajlo","Predictor note: 536","Author note: i.e. boosted something to orbit multiple times","space","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, an orbital-class rocket has been reused 10 times.",90,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo","","Author note: i.e. boosted something to orbit multiple times","space","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T08:53:40.578Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2300.",94,,"themusicgod1","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-02T13:28:07.000Z","2016-06-29T01:31:23.000Z","2301-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2300.",16,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-29T01:31:23.000Z","2016-06-29T01:31:23.000Z","2301-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2300.",50,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T16:21:38.942Z","2016-06-29T01:31:23.000Z","2301-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2400.",52,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T16:21:46.583Z","2016-06-29T01:32:27.000Z","2401-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2400.",20,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-29T01:32:27.000Z","2016-06-29T01:32:27.000Z","2401-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2400.",94,,"themusicgod1","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-02T13:28:18.000Z","2016-06-29T01:32:27.000Z","2401-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2500.",24,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-29T01:33:11.000Z","2016-06-29T01:33:11.000Z","2501-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2500.",94,,"themusicgod1","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-02T13:28:26.000Z","2016-06-29T01:33:11.000Z","2501-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2500.",53,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T16:21:56.830Z","2016-06-29T01:33:11.000Z","2501-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2600.",54,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T16:22:03.062Z","2016-06-29T01:34:22.000Z","2601-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2600.",28,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-29T01:34:22.000Z","2016-06-29T01:34:22.000Z","2601-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2600.",94,,"themusicgod1","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-02T13:28:35.000Z","2016-06-29T01:34:22.000Z","2601-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2700.",94,,"themusicgod1","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-02T13:28:40.000Z","2016-06-29T01:35:25.000Z","2701-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2700.",32,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-29T01:35:25.000Z","2016-06-29T01:35:25.000Z","2701-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2700.",55,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T16:22:08.704Z","2016-06-29T01:35:25.000Z","2701-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2800.",94,,"themusicgod1","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-02T13:28:47.000Z","2016-06-29T01:36:18.000Z","2801-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2800.",36,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-29T01:36:18.000Z","2016-06-29T01:36:18.000Z","2801-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2800.",55,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T16:22:14.533Z","2016-06-29T01:36:18.000Z","2801-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2900.",40,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-29T01:37:23.000Z","2016-06-29T01:37:23.000Z","2901-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2900.",55,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T16:22:19.310Z","2016-06-29T01:37:23.000Z","2901-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2900.",94,,"themusicgod1","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-02T13:28:52.000Z","2016-06-29T01:37:23.000Z","2901-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 3000.",44,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-29T01:38:26.000Z","2016-06-29T01:38:26.000Z","3001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 3000.",94,,"themusicgod1","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-02T13:28:57.000Z","2016-06-29T01:38:26.000Z","3001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 3000.",55,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T16:22:35.032Z","2016-06-29T01:38:26.000Z","3001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 4000.",54,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-29T01:40:29.000Z","2016-06-29T01:40:29.000Z","4001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 4000.",94,,"themusicgod1","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-02T13:29:02.000Z","2016-06-29T01:40:29.000Z","4001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 4000.",55,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T16:22:48.067Z","2016-06-29T01:40:29.000Z","4001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 5000.",94,,"themusicgod1","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-02T13:29:07.000Z","2016-06-29T01:42:23.000Z","5001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 5000.",63,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-29T01:42:23.000Z","2016-06-29T01:42:23.000Z","5001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 5000.",56,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T16:22:56.878Z","2016-06-29T01:42:23.000Z","5001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 6000.",71,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-29T01:43:26.000Z","2016-06-29T01:43:26.000Z","6001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 6000.",94,,"themusicgod1","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-02T13:29:13.000Z","2016-06-29T01:43:26.000Z","6001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 6000.",57,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T16:23:04.523Z","2016-06-29T01:43:26.000Z","6001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 7000.",94,,"themusicgod1","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-02T13:29:19.000Z","2016-06-29T01:44:42.000Z","7001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 7000.",57,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T16:23:12.203Z","2016-06-29T01:44:42.000Z","7001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 7000.",77,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-29T01:44:42.000Z","2016-06-29T01:44:42.000Z","7001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 7000.",78,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-30T02:23:49.000Z","2016-06-29T01:44:42.000Z","7001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 9000.",94,,"themusicgod1","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-02T13:29:27.000Z","2016-06-29T01:47:02.000Z","9001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 9000.",91,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-29T01:47:02.000Z","2016-06-29T01:47:02.000Z","9001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 9000.",60,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T16:23:24.566Z","2016-06-29T01:47:02.000Z","9001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 8000.",84,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-29T01:45:50.000Z","2016-06-29T01:45:50.000Z","8001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 8000.",94,,"themusicgod1","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-02T13:29:23.000Z","2016-06-29T01:45:50.000Z","8001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 8000.",58,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T16:23:17.697Z","2016-06-29T01:45:50.000Z","8001-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 10000.",96,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-29T01:48:36.000Z","2016-06-29T01:48:36.000Z","9999-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 10000.",94,,"themusicgod1","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-02T13:29:31.000Z","2016-06-29T01:48:36.000Z","9999-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 10000.",60,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T16:23:29.622Z","2016-06-29T01:48:36.000Z","9999-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 20000.",0,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-29T01:50:02.000Z","2016-06-29T01:50:02.000Z","9999-12-24T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 20000.",100,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely","Correction: meant 100%",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-29T01:51:37.000Z","2016-06-29T01:50:02.000Z","9999-12-24T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 20000.",94,,"themusicgod1","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-02T13:29:36.000Z","2016-06-29T01:50:02.000Z","9999-12-24T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 20000.",60,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T16:23:40.540Z","2016-06-29T01:50:02.000Z","9999-12-24T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 100,000.",100,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-29T01:57:56.000Z","2016-06-29T01:57:56.000Z","9999-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 100,000.",94,,"themusicgod1","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-02T13:29:41.000Z","2016-06-29T01:57:56.000Z","9999-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 100,000.",65,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T16:23:48.885Z","2016-06-29T01:57:56.000Z","9999-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 1,000,000.",100,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-29T01:58:57.000Z","2016-06-29T01:58:57.000Z","9999-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 1,000,000.",94,,"themusicgod1","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-02T13:29:46.000Z","2016-06-29T01:58:57.000Z","9999-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 1,000,000.",70,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T16:23:54.730Z","2016-06-29T01:58:57.000Z","9999-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 10,000,000.",100,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-29T01:59:46.000Z","2016-06-29T01:59:46.000Z","9999-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 10,000,000.",94,,"themusicgod1","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-02T13:29:51.000Z","2016-06-29T01:59:46.000Z","9999-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 10,000,000.",75,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T16:23:59.739Z","2016-06-29T01:59:46.000Z","9999-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 100,000,000.",100,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-29T02:00:48.000Z","2016-06-29T02:00:48.000Z","9999-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 100,000,000.",94,,"themusicgod1","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-02T13:30:16.000Z","2016-06-29T02:00:48.000Z","9999-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 100,000,000.",80,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T16:24:07.107Z","2016-06-29T02:00:48.000Z","9999-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 1,000,000,000.",100,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-29T02:01:26.000Z","2016-06-29T02:01:26.000Z","9999-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 1,000,000,000.",94,,"themusicgod1","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-02T13:29:56.000Z","2016-06-29T02:01:26.000Z","9999-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 1,000,000,000.",85,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T16:24:12.957Z","2016-06-29T02:01:26.000Z","9999-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 10,000,000,000.",100,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-29T02:02:23.000Z","2016-06-29T02:02:23.000Z","9999-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 10,000,000,000.",94,,"themusicgod1","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-02T13:30:00.000Z","2016-06-29T02:02:23.000Z","9999-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 10,000,000,000.",90,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T16:24:21.098Z","2016-06-29T02:02:23.000Z","9999-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on Donald Trump's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a *higher than average probability* of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers.",20,,"EloiseRosen","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-01T18:00:39.000Z","2016-07-01T02:39:29.000Z","2066-07-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on Donald Trump's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a *higher than average probability* of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers.",99,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-01T02:39:29.000Z","2016-07-01T02:39:29.000Z","2066-07-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on Donald Trump's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a *higher than average probability* of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers.",7,,"themusicgod1","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-01T17:14:19.000Z","2016-07-01T02:39:29.000Z","2066-07-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on Vladimir Putin's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a *higher than average probability* of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers.",99,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-01T02:40:25.000Z","2016-07-01T02:40:25.000Z","2066-07-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on Vladimir Putin's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a *higher than average probability* of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers.",6,,"themusicgod1","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-01T17:13:58.000Z","2016-07-01T02:40:25.000Z","2066-07-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on Vladimir Putin's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a *higher than average probability* of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers.",50,,"EloiseRosen","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-01T18:02:43.000Z","2016-07-01T02:40:25.000Z","2066-07-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"2nd amendment repealed in the US (or US constitution considered invalid / replaced outright without an equivalent by at least half the area of the current states)",8,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-08T04:45:32.000Z","2016-07-08T04:45:32.000Z","2066-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"2nd amendment repealed in the US (or US constitution considered invalid / replaced outright without an equivalent by at least half the area of the current states)",80,,"Dapple","themusicgod1","While I would use something like 4% as my ten year estimate, 2066 is a long time away. The US constitution could be completely redone. Self-defense by humans could be completely outmoded by robotic technology and gun ownership seen as a liability.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-13T16:12:29.000Z","2016-07-08T04:45:32.000Z","2066-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"2nd amendment repealed in the US (or US constitution considered invalid / replaced outright without an equivalent by at least half the area of the current states)",5,,"elephantower","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-08T04:50:11.000Z","2016-07-08T04:45:32.000Z","2066-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"William Lane Craig will lose his faith before he dies",2,,"RoryS","RoryS",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-08T19:55:15.000Z","2016-07-08T19:55:15.000Z","2056-08-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"William Lane Craig will lose his faith before he dies",12,,"splorridge","RoryS",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-12T12:41:49.000Z","2016-07-08T19:55:15.000Z","2056-08-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"William Lane Craig will lose his faith before he dies",10,,"Paul.David.Carr","RoryS",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-13T18:44:22.000Z","2016-07-08T19:55:15.000Z","2056-08-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ted Cruz will be linked to a sex scandal.",30,,"elephantower","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-18T01:58:02.000Z","2016-07-16T22:05:04.000Z","2036-07-17T07:00:00.000Z"
"Ted Cruz will be linked to a sex scandal.",99,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-16T22:05:04.000Z","2016-07-16T22:05:04.000Z","2036-07-17T07:00:00.000Z"
"Ted Cruz will be linked to a sex scandal.",20,,"Michael Dickens","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-31T20:44:42.000Z","2016-07-16T22:05:04.000Z","2036-07-17T07:00:00.000Z"
"I will pass my exams",99,,"Shekerev","Shekerev",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-21T13:02:58.000Z","2016-07-21T13:02:58.000Z","2016-10-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will pass my exams",90,,"elephantower","Shekerev",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-01T00:00:45.000Z","2016-07-21T13:02:58.000Z","2016-10-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will pass my exams",53,,"themusicgod1","Shekerev",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-01T00:05:44.000Z","2016-07-21T13:02:58.000Z","2016-10-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on border checkpoints being set up along the UK-Ireland border, there will be an attack on the checkpoints or border guards",50,,"themusicgod1","elephantower",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-23T00:14:26.000Z","2016-07-22T21:56:05.000Z","2020-12-16T23:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on border checkpoints being set up along the UK-Ireland border, there will be an attack on the checkpoints or border guards",65,,"blackRust","elephantower",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-24T18:15:10.000Z","2016-07-22T21:56:05.000Z","2020-12-16T23:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on border checkpoints being set up along the UK-Ireland border, there will be an attack on the checkpoints or border guards",72,,"blackRust","elephantower",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-29T05:52:13.013Z","2016-07-22T21:56:05.000Z","2020-12-16T23:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on border checkpoints being set up along the UK-Ireland border, there will be an attack on the checkpoints or border guards",70,,"elephantower","elephantower",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-22T21:56:05.000Z","2016-07-22T21:56:05.000Z","2020-12-16T23:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 100,000,000,000.",100,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-29T02:03:23.000Z","2016-06-29T02:03:23.000Z","9999-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 100,000,000,000.",94,,"themusicgod1","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-02T13:30:05.000Z","2016-06-29T02:03:23.000Z","9999-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 100,000,000,000.",90,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T16:24:38.613Z","2016-06-29T02:03:23.000Z","9999-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States to have more nuclear powered submarines than any other single country through 2020. ",95,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-07T18:42:06.000Z","2015-07-07T18:42:06.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States to have more nuclear powered submarines than any other single country through 2020. ",97,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T20:14:28.395Z","2015-07-07T18:42:06.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States to have more nuclear powered submarines than any other single country through 2020. ",97,,"Baeboo","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-13T00:14:11.947Z","2015-07-07T18:42:06.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The United States to have more nuclear powered submarines than any other single country through 2020. ",55,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T22:55:54.000Z","2015-07-07T18:42:06.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bay Area lockdown (eg restaurants closed) will be extended beyond June 15",40,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""Sell to 40%, if I’m interpreting this correctly. I’m reading this as “no major relaxation of lockdown conditions” with things extended as they are or harsher. Certainly allowing restaurants to open at any level of capacity would mean it fails.

Right now, California is running in place at very low levels. Almost no herd immunity is being built, and most hospital capacity is not being used at all. The economy is being sacrificed in the hopes that conditions improve, but how long can that continue? How long should it continue? How long would people continue to abide it under such conditions, with no end in sight?

This is soon enough that there’s a decent chance that these realizations have not yet come at that time. And there’s some chance that there’s a treatment or vaccine that looks sufficiently promising that ‘tough it out until the end’ becomes reasonable. But I’m guessing, as I noted last time, that a partial reopening does little or no damage if done wisely, and I expect California to end up doing something of that type.""",,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-06-15T00:00:00.000Z"
"Bay Area lockdown (eg restaurants closed) will be extended beyond June 15",80,,"Bucky","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-06-15T00:00:00.000Z"
"Bay Area lockdown (eg restaurants closed) will be extended beyond June 15",60,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-06-15T00:00:00.000Z"
"At least one fatality, Kent-state style(though not necessarily at a university), where national guard kills protester in US",20,,"elephantower","themusicgod1","national guard is oddly specific\",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-31T19:08:28.000Z","2016-07-31T14:29:35.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one fatality, Kent-state style(though not necessarily at a university), where national guard kills protester in US",52,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-31T14:29:35.000Z","2016-07-31T14:29:35.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one fatality, Kent-state style(though not necessarily at a university), where national guard kills protester in US",8,,"aarongertler","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-18T05:13:56.000Z","2016-07-31T14:29:35.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Gary Johnson wins 2020 presidential election. ",3,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-28T16:33:12.000Z","2016-08-26T18:35:25.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Gary Johnson wins 2020 presidential election. ",8,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-26T18:35:25.000Z","2016-08-26T18:35:25.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Gary Johnson wins 2020 presidential election. ",1,,"Dapple","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-28T01:39:23.000Z","2016-08-26T18:35:25.000Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"US will abandon the electoral college at any time before 2050",20,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-02T19:42:00.000Z","2016-10-02T19:42:00.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"US will abandon the electoral college at any time before 2050",53,,"themusicgod1","btrettel","people will end up deciding who actually runs the place by googling to see who won, and gradually google will realize that they can just cut out the middle men, and first cut out the electoral college and eventually voting itself. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-02T21:55:59.000Z","2016-10-02T19:42:00.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"US will abandon the electoral college at any time before 2050",10,,"Michael Dickens","btrettel","themusicgod1, why do you always vote close to 50% no matter how likely/unlikely the prediction is?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-02T23:49:06.000Z","2016-10-02T19:42:00.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Humans to land on Mars by November 24, 2046",71,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Updating on progress with BFR/Starship. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T18:37:01.516Z","2016-10-24T22:35:33.000Z","2046-11-24T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humans to land on Mars by November 24, 2046",72,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-24T22:35:33.000Z","2016-10-24T22:35:33.000Z","2046-11-24T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humans to land on Mars by November 24, 2046",50,,"bobpage","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-15T11:40:18.000Z","2016-10-24T22:35:33.000Z","2046-11-24T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humans to land on Mars by November 24, 2046",69,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Updating on  cancellation of Red Dragon, switch from ITS to mini-ITS.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-13T20:15:45.000Z","2016-10-24T22:35:33.000Z","2046-11-24T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humans to land on Mars by November 24, 2046",30,,"Osuniev","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-21T01:25:37.000Z","2016-10-24T22:35:33.000Z","2046-11-24T12:00:00.000Z"
"github still exists",7,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-30T13:00:43.000Z","2016-10-30T13:00:43.000Z","2030-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"github still exists",40,,"Michael Dickens","themusicgod1","How many big websites from 14 years ago still exist today? Seems like a lot of them.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-30T18:13:19.000Z","2016-10-30T13:00:43.000Z","2030-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"github still exists",55,,"penten","themusicgod1","If online, would not be surprised if it is no longer relevant (see Soureforge, Slashdot, etc.). Assuming anual rate of 5% for websites going offline",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-31T09:47:42.000Z","2016-10-30T13:00:43.000Z","2030-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"github still exists",22,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1","Oh fsck, I I think meant to have it due in 2046.  Apparently my brain had a Y2K bug.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-30T20:18:21.000Z","2016-10-30T13:00:43.000Z","2030-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"github still exists",27,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1","penten makes a good case.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-31T19:27:53.000Z","2016-10-30T13:00:43.000Z","2030-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Facebook has <=50M active users in 2021",47,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-02T22:14:05.000Z","2016-11-02T22:14:05.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Facebook has <=50M active users in 2021",6,,"leo_grint","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-08T21:13:23.000Z","2016-11-02T22:14:05.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Facebook has <=50M active users in 2021",15,,"bobpage","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-09T06:13:15.000Z","2016-11-02T22:14:05.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will learn to cook, and will turn out to be better at it than my parents.",80,,"jasticE","PseudonymousUser",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-18T09:38:51.000Z","2015-06-04T09:12:09.000Z","2020-06-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will learn to cook, and will turn out to be better at it than my parents.",80,,"PseudonymousUser","PseudonymousUser",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-04T09:12:09.000Z","2015-06-04T09:12:09.000Z","2020-06-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will learn to cook, and will turn out to be better at it than my parents.",80,,"stepan","PseudonymousUser",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-24T17:50:07.992Z","2015-06-04T09:12:09.000Z","2020-06-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"President Trump imprisons Hillary Clinton and her imprisonment is upheld by whatever america has left of its Judiciary",68,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-09T06:28:23.000Z","2016-11-09T06:28:23.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"President Trump imprisons Hillary Clinton and her imprisonment is upheld by whatever america has left of its Judiciary",6,,"capisce","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-09T15:13:24.000Z","2016-11-09T06:28:23.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"President Trump imprisons Hillary Clinton and her imprisonment is upheld by whatever america has left of its Judiciary",14,,"pkfalu92","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-09T07:21:33.000Z","2016-11-09T06:28:23.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"President Trump imprisons Hillary Clinton and her imprisonment is upheld by whatever america has left of its Judiciary",1,,"pkfalu92","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-19T18:20:41.000Z","2016-11-09T06:28:23.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Aam Aadmi Party, like the Indian National Congress, will disappear from the electoral map of India.",35,,"JoshuaZ","PseudonymousUser",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-19T14:50:26.000Z","2015-06-03T21:46:11.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Aam Aadmi Party, like the Indian National Congress, will disappear from the electoral map of India.",70,,"Raahul_Kumar","PseudonymousUser","Given Modi Magic, I think AAP will disappear. The country is growing. It takes more than a magic scarf to run Dilli properly.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-19T11:02:18.000Z","2015-06-03T21:46:11.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Aam Aadmi Party, like the Indian National Congress, will disappear from the electoral map of India.",25,,"PseudonymousUser","PseudonymousUser",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-03T21:46:11.000Z","2015-06-03T21:46:11.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"President Trump frees/pardons either Chelsea Manning, Julian Assange, Laurie Love, Jeremy Hammond",37,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-10T01:30:28.000Z","2016-11-10T01:30:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"President Trump frees/pardons either Chelsea Manning, Julian Assange, Laurie Love, Jeremy Hammond",0,,"NickN","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-17T21:31:45.519Z","2016-11-10T01:30:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"President Trump frees/pardons either Chelsea Manning, Julian Assange, Laurie Love, Jeremy Hammond",11,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-22T09:05:27.205Z","2016-11-10T01:30:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Lockheed Martin claims up to 3500 F-35 will be ordered. A look at the price and the previous track record of the F-22 instead leads to a certainty that all orders combined will be lucky to hit 940. That is 1/4 of LM claims.",30,,"EloiseRosen","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-22T16:53:57.000Z","2015-05-21T09:57:49.000Z","2020-05-23T12:00:00.000Z"
"Lockheed Martin claims up to 3500 F-35 will be ordered. A look at the price and the previous track record of the F-22 instead leads to a certainty that all orders combined will be lucky to hit 940. That is 1/4 of LM claims.",28,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar","Interpreting as at most 940 ordered.

(Also, comment to Jesselevine: I think that Raahul is just being very overconfident not necessarily promoting their politics.) ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-22T12:03:22.000Z","2015-05-21T09:57:49.000Z","2020-05-23T12:00:00.000Z"
"Lockheed Martin claims up to 3500 F-35 will be ordered. A look at the price and the previous track record of the F-22 instead leads to a certainty that all orders combined will be lucky to hit 940. That is 1/4 of LM claims.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-21T09:57:49.000Z","2015-05-21T09:57:49.000Z","2020-05-23T12:00:00.000Z"
"A city of population >50,000 in the United States will ban the sale of all meat products that came from a sentient animal",60,,"Dapple","Dapple",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-15T02:44:10.000Z","2016-11-15T02:44:09.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A city of population >50,000 in the United States will ban the sale of all meat products that came from a sentient animal",49,,"themusicgod1","Dapple",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-15T05:38:33.000Z","2016-11-15T02:44:09.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A city of population >50,000 in the United States will ban the sale of all meat products that came from a sentient animal",40,,"EloiseRosen","Dapple",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-26T02:06:59.000Z","2016-11-15T02:44:09.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Total US hate crimes incidents (see comment) will not be more than 125% at any year during Trump presidency.",70,,"splorridge","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-17T14:36:55.000Z","2016-11-17T14:36:55.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Total US hate crimes incidents (see comment) will not be more than 125% at any year during Trump presidency.",72,,"leo_grint","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-22T18:46:15.000Z","2016-11-17T14:36:55.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Total US hate crimes incidents (see comment) will not be more than 125% at any year during Trump presidency.",49,,"themusicgod1","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-17T18:30:14.000Z","2016-11-17T14:36:55.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zhōnghuá  will be the world's biggest economy in both PPP and GDP terms in 2022 as measured by the IMF. It is already the world's biggest economy in PPP terms and 2nd in nominal terms (2015). 

Lant Pritchett and Lawrence H. Summers disagree.",35,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-15T00:50:45.000Z","2015-05-14T04:21:55.000Z","2022-12-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zhōnghuá  will be the world's biggest economy in both PPP and GDP terms in 2022 as measured by the IMF. It is already the world's biggest economy in PPP terms and 2nd in nominal terms (2015). 

Lant Pritchett and Lawrence H. Summers disagree.",80,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar","Lant Pritchett and Lawrence Summers will both try to avoid any mention of their previous prediction. They will not accept responsibility for a total failure of a prediction. I will hold them to account and shame them publicly.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-17T08:44:56.000Z","2015-05-14T04:21:55.000Z","2022-12-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zhōnghuá  will be the world's biggest economy in both PPP and GDP terms in 2022 as measured by the IMF. It is already the world's biggest economy in PPP terms and 2nd in nominal terms (2015). 

Lant Pritchett and Lawrence H. Summers disagree.",60,,"doctorpat","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-15T01:30:37.000Z","2015-05-14T04:21:55.000Z","2022-12-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zhōnghuá  will be the world's biggest economy in both PPP and GDP terms in 2022 as measured by the IMF. It is already the world's biggest economy in PPP terms and 2nd in nominal terms (2015). 

Lant Pritchett and Lawrence H. Summers disagree.",35,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-15T00:50:46.000Z","2015-05-14T04:21:55.000Z","2022-12-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zhōnghuá  will be the world's biggest economy in both PPP and GDP terms in 2022 as measured by the IMF. It is already the world's biggest economy in PPP terms and 2nd in nominal terms (2015). 

Lant Pritchett and Lawrence H. Summers disagree.",99,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-14T04:21:55.000Z","2015-05-14T04:21:55.000Z","2022-12-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"US bicycle mode share will increase in the 2020 Census over 2010",75,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-12T19:34:50.000Z","2015-05-11T20:16:12.000Z","2022-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"US bicycle mode share will increase in the 2020 Census over 2010",90,,"jesselevine","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-14T02:09:43.000Z","2015-05-11T20:16:12.000Z","2022-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"US bicycle mode share will increase in the 2020 Census over 2010",70,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-11T20:16:12.000Z","2015-05-11T20:16:12.000Z","2022-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will grow 10% in real GDP terms year on year from 2015-25. That will take Bharat from a 2.3 trillion USD nominal economy to 10.3 trillion dollar economy in 10 years, where Zhonghua is currently.In PPP terms Bharat will be the 2nd biggest economy.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar","Taking into account the real appreciation of the rupee, during the decade of 2003-04 to 2012-13, we've grown above 10 per cent per annum in real dollars -- NITI Aayog vice-chairman Arvind Panagariya Economic Times",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-24T04:26:00.000Z","2015-05-11T12:42:59.000Z","2025-05-12T16:25:00.000Z"
"Bharat will grow 10% in real GDP terms year on year from 2015-25. That will take Bharat from a 2.3 trillion USD nominal economy to 10.3 trillion dollar economy in 10 years, where Zhonghua is currently.In PPP terms Bharat will be the 2nd biggest economy.",8,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-13T02:31:55.000Z","2015-05-11T12:42:59.000Z","2025-05-12T16:25:00.000Z"
"Bharat will grow 10% in real GDP terms year on year from 2015-25. That will take Bharat from a 2.3 trillion USD nominal economy to 10.3 trillion dollar economy in 10 years, where Zhonghua is currently.In PPP terms Bharat will be the 2nd biggest economy.",5,,"doctorpat","Raahul_Kumar","Growing to a 10 trillion dollar economy isn't that unrealistic, but to be the 2nd largest economy in the world at that point requires either China or the USA to be much smaller than today, which isn't very likely at all.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-12T01:30:51.000Z","2015-05-11T12:42:59.000Z","2025-05-12T16:25:00.000Z"
"Bharat will grow 10% in real GDP terms year on year from 2015-25. That will take Bharat from a 2.3 trillion USD nominal economy to 10.3 trillion dollar economy in 10 years, where Zhonghua is currently.In PPP terms Bharat will be the 2nd biggest economy.",99,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-11T12:42:59.000Z","2015-05-11T12:42:59.000Z","2025-05-12T16:25:00.000Z"
"At least 45% of electric power worldwide will be due to solar power by 2035. ",15,,"jesselevine","JoshuaZ","My counter http://predictionbook.com/predictions/104811",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-04T00:23:44.000Z","2015-05-03T01:08:14.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 45% of electric power worldwide will be due to solar power by 2035. ",20,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-03T01:08:14.000Z","2015-05-03T01:08:14.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 45% of electric power worldwide will be due to solar power by 2035. ",20,,"splorridge","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-13T16:36:09.000Z","2015-05-03T01:08:14.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will never have kids",90,,"jesselevine","Mishell103",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-25T17:49:36.000Z","2015-04-25T15:43:11.000Z","2025-04-25T15:43:10.000Z"
"I will never have kids",70,,"EloiseRosen","Mishell103",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-25T21:20:52.000Z","2015-04-25T15:43:11.000Z","2025-04-25T15:43:10.000Z"
"I will never have kids",80,,"Mishell103","Mishell103",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-25T15:43:11.000Z","2015-04-25T15:43:11.000Z","2025-04-25T15:43:10.000Z"
"Global warming: warming of 2 C in under 15 years. ",20,,"playablecharacter","pkfalu92",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-02T21:16:19.000Z","2016-12-04T19:08:36.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Global warming: warming of 2 C in under 15 years. ",51,,"pkfalu92","pkfalu92",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-04T19:08:36.000Z","2016-12-04T19:08:36.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Global warming: warming of 2 C in under 15 years. ",52,,"themusicgod1","pkfalu92",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-05T18:04:18.000Z","2016-12-04T19:08:36.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Climate research (global warming) will have a replication crisis",10,,"hedges","hedges",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-09T17:04:17.000Z","2016-12-09T17:04:17.000Z","2026-12-10T04:04:17.000Z"
"Climate research (global warming) will have a replication crisis",8,,"themusicgod1","hedges",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-09T20:13:30.000Z","2016-12-09T17:04:17.000Z","2026-12-10T04:04:17.000Z"
"Climate research (global warming) will have a replication crisis",5,,"Ben Doherty","hedges",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-13T23:07:46.000Z","2016-12-09T17:04:17.000Z","2026-12-10T04:04:17.000Z"
"By the year 2050, Nuclear weapons would have been abolished globally for the benefit of mankind.",5,,"PseudonymousUser","PseudonymousUser",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-15T13:25:31.000Z","2015-04-15T13:25:31.000Z","2050-01-01T00:01:00.000Z"
"By the year 2050, Nuclear weapons would have been abolished globally for the benefit of mankind.",3,,"AlexLamson","PseudonymousUser",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-02T20:59:07.237Z","2015-04-15T13:25:31.000Z","2050-01-01T00:01:00.000Z"
"By the year 2050, Nuclear weapons would have been abolished globally for the benefit of mankind.",2,,"Baeboo","PseudonymousUser",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-03T01:41:45.194Z","2015-04-15T13:25:31.000Z","2050-01-01T00:01:00.000Z"
"By March 22, 2035, at least one currently OECD country will have at least 20% of all cars be self-driving. ",70,,"Serge","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-30T14:46:54.000Z","2015-03-22T23:39:36.000Z","2035-03-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"By March 22, 2035, at least one currently OECD country will have at least 20% of all cars be self-driving. ",80,,"dhoe","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-29T10:46:51.000Z","2015-03-22T23:39:36.000Z","2035-03-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"By March 22, 2035, at least one currently OECD country will have at least 20% of all cars be self-driving. ",55,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-22T23:39:36.000Z","2015-03-22T23:39:36.000Z","2035-03-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2020, gwern will write a new article for the English Wikipedia and Vipul Naik will pay for the work https://contractwork.vipulnaik.com/",21,,"playablecharacter","Issa Rice",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-03T20:17:38.000Z","2017-01-03T20:14:10.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2020, gwern will write a new article for the English Wikipedia and Vipul Naik will pay for the work https://contractwork.vipulnaik.com/",2,,"Issa Rice","Issa Rice","Vipul is no longer paying for new work on Wikipedia",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-01-01T20:16:49.000Z","2017-01-03T20:14:10.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2020, gwern will write a new article for the English Wikipedia and Vipul Naik will pay for the work https://contractwork.vipulnaik.com/",10,,"Issa Rice","Issa Rice",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-03T20:14:10.000Z","2017-01-03T20:14:10.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2020, gwern will write a new article for the English Wikipedia and Vipul Naik will pay for the work https://contractwork.vipulnaik.com/",0,,"Baeboo","Issa Rice",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-14T06:54:55.000Z","2017-01-03T20:14:10.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Yahoo will cease to exist by 2026",51,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-05T19:03:13.000Z","2017-01-05T19:03:13.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Yahoo will cease to exist by 2026",75,,"playablecharacter","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-05T23:28:38.000Z","2017-01-05T19:03:13.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Yahoo will cease to exist by 2026",37,,"splorridge","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-08T17:15:52.000Z","2017-01-05T19:03:13.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one current core researcher at MIRI will turn to terrorism in order to buy more time for MIRI/others to save humanity",0,,"pkfalu92","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-06T15:38:25.000Z","2017-01-05T22:59:37.000Z","2039-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one current core researcher at MIRI will turn to terrorism in order to buy more time for MIRI/others to save humanity",16,,"playablecharacter","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-05T22:59:37.000Z","2017-01-05T22:59:37.000Z","2039-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one current core researcher at MIRI will turn to terrorism in order to buy more time for MIRI/others to save humanity",49,,"themusicgod1","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-07T00:37:37.000Z","2017-01-05T22:59:37.000Z","2039-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one article Vipul Naik pays to create on the English Wikipedia will have good article or featured article status by the end of 2025",49,,"themusicgod1","Issa Rice",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-08T08:31:49.000Z","2017-01-08T01:44:25.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one article Vipul Naik pays to create on the English Wikipedia will have good article or featured article status by the end of 2025",20,,"Issa Rice","Issa Rice",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-08T01:44:25.000Z","2017-01-08T01:44:25.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one article Vipul Naik pays to create on the English Wikipedia will have good article or featured article status by the end of 2025",75,,"playablecharacter","Issa Rice",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-08T01:55:30.000Z","2017-01-08T01:44:25.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By March 10, 2035, ""the sum of (a) those who own cars and use them at least once a week (b) those who use a ride-sharing program with self-driving cars at least once a week, not counting twice those who do both
will be less than 40% of the U.S. populatio",5,,"btrettel","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-26T18:43:41.000Z","2015-03-10T16:04:34.000Z","2035-03-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"By March 10, 2035, ""the sum of (a) those who own cars and use them at least once a week (b) those who use a ride-sharing program with self-driving cars at least once a week, not counting twice those who do both
will be less than 40% of the U.S. populatio",10,,"Unknowns","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-10T17:01:19.000Z","2015-03-10T16:04:34.000Z","2035-03-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"By March 10, 2035, ""the sum of (a) those who own cars and use them at least once a week (b) those who use a ride-sharing program with self-driving cars at least once a week, not counting twice those who do both
will be less than 40% of the U.S. populatio",25,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-10T16:04:34.000Z","2015-03-10T16:04:34.000Z","2035-03-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump uses emergency broadcast system to ask for supporters to come to Counter-protest",3,,"Michael Dickens","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-14T03:56:47.000Z","2017-01-14T02:41:21.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump uses emergency broadcast system to ask for supporters to come to Counter-protest",9,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-14T02:41:21.000Z","2017-01-14T02:41:21.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump uses emergency broadcast system to ask for supporters to come to Counter-protest",1,,"playablecharacter","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-15T10:39:20.000Z","2017-01-14T02:41:21.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"U6* unemployment will be under 10% by this time next year. ",45,,"torekp","rebellionkid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-14T19:27:40.000Z","2015-02-10T10:07:45.000Z","2016-02-10T10:07:45.000Z"
"U6* unemployment will be under 10% by this time next year. ",60,,"sweeneyrod","rebellionkid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-10T10:20:36.000Z","2015-02-10T10:07:45.000Z","2016-02-10T10:07:45.000Z"
"U6* unemployment will be under 10% by this time next year. ",80,,"rebellionkid","rebellionkid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-10T10:07:45.000Z","2015-02-10T10:07:45.000Z","2016-02-10T10:07:45.000Z"
"Something gets leaked that makes Donald Trump look dumb.",100,,"NickN","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-17T01:06:09.608Z","2017-01-16T22:38:39.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Something gets leaked that makes Donald Trump look dumb.",92,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-16T22:38:39.000Z","2017-01-16T22:38:39.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Something gets leaked that makes Donald Trump look dumb.",90,,"two2thehead","themusicgod1","Almost certainly",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-16T23:30:39.000Z","2017-01-16T22:38:39.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google widely seen (by investors, wall street) as having successfully solved the issue of how to monetise a voice-centric world (including if such a world does not occur, or they avoid the problem).",51,,"themusicgod1","Temeraire",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-28T23:01:15.000Z","2017-01-28T04:45:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google widely seen (by investors, wall street) as having successfully solved the issue of how to monetise a voice-centric world (including if such a world does not occur, or they avoid the problem).",72,,"Temeraire","Temeraire",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-28T04:45:28.000Z","2017-01-28T04:45:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google widely seen (by investors, wall street) as having successfully solved the issue of how to monetise a voice-centric world (including if such a world does not occur, or they avoid the problem).",80,,"rmeador","Temeraire",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-31T18:35:42.000Z","2017-01-28T04:45:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Facebook will have less than 300 000 000 active members in 2050.",58,,"themusicgod1","Chri",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-14T06:24:11.000Z","2015-01-26T08:40:24.000Z","2051-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Facebook will have less than 300 000 000 active members in 2050.",70,,"sweeneyrod","Chri",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-26T13:13:36.000Z","2015-01-26T08:40:24.000Z","2051-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Facebook will have less than 300 000 000 active members in 2050.",40,,"Chri","Chri",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-26T08:40:24.000Z","2015-01-26T08:40:24.000Z","2051-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will find a job before March 15th 2015",30,,"sweeneyrod","Ruthie",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-20T21:14:59.000Z","2015-01-20T18:36:50.000Z","2015-03-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will find a job before March 15th 2015",10,,"Unknowns","Ruthie",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-10T16:36:29.000Z","2015-01-20T18:36:50.000Z","2015-03-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will find a job before March 15th 2015",65,,"Ruthie","Ruthie",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-20T18:36:50.000Z","2015-01-20T18:36:50.000Z","2015-03-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"HP MOR : The source of magic stores ""souls"" (brain states) long term and is able to simulate them",90,,"Unknowns","claz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-10T16:37:49.000Z","2015-01-25T21:54:49.000Z","2015-03-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"HP MOR : The source of magic stores ""souls"" (brain states) long term and is able to simulate them",75,,"Calien","claz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-02T10:15:15.000Z","2015-01-25T21:54:49.000Z","2015-03-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"HP MOR : The source of magic stores ""souls"" (brain states) long term and is able to simulate them",70,,"claz","claz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-25T21:54:49.000Z","2015-01-25T21:54:49.000Z","2015-03-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zero humans will have been in orbit around another planet by 2050",30,,"sweeneyrod","dvolk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-18T21:11:24.000Z","2014-12-17T07:20:09.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zero humans will have been in orbit around another planet by 2050",25,,"kilobug","dvolk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-29T13:51:34.000Z","2014-12-17T07:20:09.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zero humans will have been in orbit around another planet by 2050",90,,"dvolk","dvolk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-17T07:20:09.000Z","2014-12-17T07:20:09.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A polynomial time factoring algorthim (on a classical computer) will be discovered by 2045. ",2,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-02T03:53:34.000Z","2014-12-04T20:37:29.000Z","2045-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"A polynomial time factoring algorthim (on a classical computer) will be discovered by 2045. ",5,,"Michael Dickens","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-07T23:13:25.000Z","2014-12-04T20:37:29.000Z","2045-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"A polynomial time factoring algorthim (on a classical computer) will be discovered by 2045. ",5,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-04T20:37:29.000Z","2014-12-04T20:37:29.000Z","2045-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Use of prediction tracking software will increase prediction accuracy over a 9 month period",30,,"dtov","msevrens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-29T23:19:00.000Z","2014-10-28T22:39:11.000Z","2015-07-28T22:39:11.000Z"
"Use of prediction tracking software will increase prediction accuracy over a 9 month period",50,,"tylercurtis","msevrens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-30T04:28:43.000Z","2014-10-28T22:39:11.000Z","2015-07-28T22:39:11.000Z"
"Use of prediction tracking software will increase prediction accuracy over a 9 month period",60,,"msevrens","msevrens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-28T22:39:11.000Z","2014-10-28T22:39:11.000Z","2015-07-28T22:39:11.000Z"
"""the Milo shtick by 2020 will be to come out as straight, healed by the soothing words of Mike Pence, or something""",10,,"NickN","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-17T01:03:19.219Z","2017-02-02T21:16:18.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""the Milo shtick by 2020 will be to come out as straight, healed by the soothing words of Mike Pence, or something""",5,,"bobpage","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-02T21:16:18.000Z","2017-02-02T21:16:18.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""the Milo shtick by 2020 will be to come out as straight, healed by the soothing words of Mike Pence, or something""",17,,"themusicgod1","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-03T16:10:18.000Z","2017-02-02T21:16:18.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Slack to allow unpaid slacks to view messages older than 10,000 messages old sometime before 2020",49,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-07T15:20:57.000Z","2017-02-07T12:04:55.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Slack to allow unpaid slacks to view messages older than 10,000 messages old sometime before 2020",20,,"Dapple","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-19T23:56:02.000Z","2017-02-07T12:04:55.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Slack to allow unpaid slacks to view messages older than 10,000 messages old sometime before 2020",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-07T12:04:55.000Z","2017-02-07T12:04:55.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"0% corporate tax in US",49,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-17T02:57:21.000Z","2017-02-17T02:57:21.000Z","2021-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"0% corporate tax in US",3,,"Temeraire","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-20T22:58:15.000Z","2017-02-17T02:57:21.000Z","2021-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"0% corporate tax in US",4,,"Dapple","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-10T17:32:24.000Z","2017-02-17T02:57:21.000Z","2021-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Vipul Naik will have a girlfriend at some point in 2017 or later, in the 21st century.",40,,"Issa Rice","Vipul Naik",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-09T08:01:57.959Z","2017-03-11T22:20:40.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Vipul Naik will have a girlfriend at some point in 2017 or later, in the 21st century.",22,,"Vipul Naik","Vipul Naik",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-11T22:20:40.000Z","2017-03-11T22:20:40.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Vipul Naik will have a girlfriend at some point in 2017 or later, in the 21st century.",75,,"playablecharacter","Vipul Naik",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-11T22:22:19.000Z","2017-03-11T22:20:40.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Vipul Naik will have a girlfriend at some point in 2017 or later, in the 21st century.",33,,"Issa Rice","Vipul Naik",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-11T22:22:53.000Z","2017-03-11T22:20:40.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Vipul Naik will have a girlfriend at some point in 2017 or later, in the 21st century.",70,,"playablecharacter","Vipul Naik",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-11T22:26:51.000Z","2017-03-11T22:20:40.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Usain Bolt sets a new PB in the 100m.",10,,"phreeza","KnaveOfAllTrades",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-20T09:30:20.000Z","2014-10-18T22:09:56.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Usain Bolt sets a new PB in the 100m.",35,,"from3004","KnaveOfAllTrades",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-19T12:45:49.000Z","2014-10-18T22:09:56.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Usain Bolt sets a new PB in the 100m.",30,,"KnaveOfAllTrades","KnaveOfAllTrades",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-18T22:12:42.000Z","2014-10-18T22:09:56.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Usain Bolt sets a new PB in the 100m.",27,,"KnaveOfAllTrades","KnaveOfAllTrades",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-18T22:09:56.000Z","2014-10-18T22:09:56.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A peace treaty ends the arab-isreali conflict before 2050",40,,"simplicio","rebellionkid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-18T13:46:54.000Z","2014-09-08T23:56:52.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A peace treaty ends the arab-isreali conflict before 2050",20,,"Tamer","rebellionkid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-17T19:44:08.000Z","2014-09-08T23:56:52.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A peace treaty ends the arab-isreali conflict before 2050",40,,"rebellionkid","rebellionkid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-08T23:56:52.000Z","2014-09-08T23:56:52.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A peace treaty ends the arab-israeli conflict before 2030.",5,,"Tamer","rebellionkid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-17T19:43:48.000Z","2014-09-08T23:56:08.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A peace treaty ends the arab-israeli conflict before 2030.",20,,"rebellionkid","rebellionkid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-08T23:56:08.000Z","2014-09-08T23:56:08.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A peace treaty ends the arab-israeli conflict before 2030.",10,,"simplicio","rebellionkid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-18T13:46:42.000Z","2014-09-08T23:56:08.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"i think accountant will change their mind",100,,"Sesq","Sesq",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-24T06:40:16.000Z","2017-03-24T06:40:16.000Z","2022-03-24T23:00:00.000Z"
"i think accountant will change their mind",100,,"Sesq","Sesq","lol",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-24T06:40:56.000Z","2017-03-24T06:40:16.000Z","2022-03-24T23:00:00.000Z"
"i think accountant will change their mind",0,,"Hierophant","Sesq","The correct path is steady and unwavering, a straight road to righteousness that will never change or crack. Your prediction is futile.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-24T06:43:34.000Z","2017-03-24T06:40:16.000Z","2022-03-24T23:00:00.000Z"
"i think accountant will change their mind",10,,"Dwlee99","Sesq",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-24T22:13:53.000Z","2017-03-24T06:40:16.000Z","2022-03-24T23:00:00.000Z"
"Sign language becomes 3rd official language of Canada",30,,"PseudonymousUser","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-23T02:42:13.000Z","2017-05-25T19:06:18.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Sign language becomes 3rd official language of Canada",15,,"rk","themusicgod1","There was a recent rally (last month), but the coverage seems very sparse. The rally decreases my confidence that it will happen. I don't really know much about it, so I'll stick with 15%",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-10-12T12:21:20.000Z","2017-05-25T19:06:18.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Sign language becomes 3rd official language of Canada",51,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-25T19:06:18.000Z","2017-05-25T19:06:18.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will ride in a level 4+ autonomous vehicle before 2021",1,,"bobpage","bobpage","yeah right",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-11T07:12:23.411Z","2017-06-19T01:45:53.000Z","2021-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"I will ride in a level 4+ autonomous vehicle before 2021",37,,"themusicgod1","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-19T11:57:13.000Z","2017-06-19T01:45:53.000Z","2021-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"I will ride in a level 4+ autonomous vehicle before 2021",2,,"Baeboo","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-11T19:46:33.561Z","2017-06-19T01:45:53.000Z","2021-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"I will ride in a level 4+ autonomous vehicle before 2021",48,,"bobpage","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-19T01:45:53.000Z","2017-06-19T01:45:53.000Z","2021-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"The WildAid campaign will contribute to a noticeable decline in the growth of Chinese meat consumption by 2019-10-01",30,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-30T05:38:33.000Z","2017-08-30T05:38:33.000Z","2021-10-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The WildAid campaign will contribute to a noticeable decline in the growth of Chinese meat consumption by 2019-10-01",10,,"penten","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-07T11:50:39.000Z","2017-08-30T05:38:33.000Z","2021-10-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The WildAid campaign will contribute to a noticeable decline in the growth of Chinese meat consumption by 2019-10-01",29,,"themusicgod1","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-07T17:16:06.000Z","2017-08-30T05:38:33.000Z","2021-10-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that EAGx events result on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000 ",30,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-30T06:20:24.000Z","2017-08-30T06:20:24.000Z","2019-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that EAGx events result on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000 ",49,,"themusicgod1","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-31T11:40:45.000Z","2017-08-30T06:20:24.000Z","2019-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that EAGx events result on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000 ",30,,"Pablo","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-30T16:59:18.000Z","2017-08-30T06:20:24.000Z","2019-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bitcoin was designed by a group of mathematicians as a side project while working for the NSA.",2,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-31T12:03:37.000Z","2017-08-31T12:03:37.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bitcoin was designed by a group of mathematicians as a side project while working for the NSA.",1,,"two2thehead","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-02T16:56:44.000Z","2017-08-31T12:03:37.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bitcoin was designed by a group of mathematicians as a side project while working for the NSA.",2,,"bobpage","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-04T06:54:14.000Z","2017-08-31T12:03:37.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Gaydar] Dean-Charles Chapman comes out as queer",65,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-07T23:29:49.000Z","2017-09-07T23:29:49.000Z","2067-09-08T09:00:00.000Z"
"[Gaydar] Dean-Charles Chapman comes out as queer",70,,"Plank","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-28T14:39:57.399Z","2017-09-07T23:29:49.000Z","2067-09-08T09:00:00.000Z"
"[Gaydar] Dean-Charles Chapman comes out as queer",34,,"themusicgod1","two2thehead","base rate... ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-08T02:53:09.000Z","2017-09-07T23:29:49.000Z","2067-09-08T09:00:00.000Z"
"BTC priced at or above $25,000 five years from today",3,,"Michael Dickens","Michael Dickens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-16T03:03:43.000Z","2017-09-16T03:03:43.000Z","2022-09-16T03:03:43.000Z"
"BTC priced at or above $25,000 five years from today",72,,"themusicgod1","Michael Dickens","(assuming : all forks of bitcoin combined)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-16T14:08:12.000Z","2017-09-16T03:03:43.000Z","2022-09-16T03:03:43.000Z"
"BTC priced at or above $25,000 five years from today",65,,"Flenser","Michael Dickens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-08T23:39:41.000Z","2017-09-16T03:03:43.000Z","2022-09-16T03:03:43.000Z"
"Conditional on Scott Adams's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of having schizophrenia/being schizophrenic 
",95,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-28T00:33:07.000Z","2017-09-28T00:33:07.000Z","2067-09-28T09:30:00.000Z"
"Conditional on Scott Adams's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of having schizophrenia/being schizophrenic 
",49,,"themusicgod1","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-28T06:41:41.000Z","2017-09-28T00:33:07.000Z","2067-09-28T09:30:00.000Z"
"Conditional on Scott Adams's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of having schizophrenia/being schizophrenic 
",20,,"holycow81","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-11T06:39:39.000Z","2017-09-28T00:33:07.000Z","2067-09-28T09:30:00.000Z"
"Brexit fails",33,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-02T22:11:53.000Z","2017-10-02T22:11:53.000Z","2021-10-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Brexit fails",20,,"Bruno Parga","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-17T21:42:47.000Z","2017-10-02T22:11:53.000Z","2021-10-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Brexit fails",35,,"ekr","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-01T23:07:45.000Z","2017-10-02T22:11:53.000Z","2021-10-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bryan Caplan will win his bet on climate statistics with Yoram Bauman.",45,,"JoshuaZ","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-07-23T00:55:48.000Z","2014-07-12T23:51:30.000Z","2030-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"Bryan Caplan will win his bet on climate statistics with Yoram Bauman.",20,,"rebellionkid","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-07-22T09:31:43.000Z","2014-07-12T23:51:30.000Z","2030-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"Bryan Caplan will win his bet on climate statistics with Yoram Bauman.",40,,"Jayson Virissimo","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-07-12T23:51:30.000Z","2014-07-12T23:51:30.000Z","2030-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"By May 2034, the fraction of Catholic masses that are in Latin (as opposed to the vernacular) will be the same as or higher than it is now in 2014. ",20,,"aarongertler","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-05-11T02:47:48.000Z","2014-05-05T20:51:24.000Z","2034-05-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By May 2034, the fraction of Catholic masses that are in Latin (as opposed to the vernacular) will be the same as or higher than it is now in 2014. ",30,,"lavalamp","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-05-05T23:23:28.000Z","2014-05-05T20:51:24.000Z","2034-05-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By May 2034, the fraction of Catholic masses that are in Latin (as opposed to the vernacular) will be the same as or higher than it is now in 2014. ",55,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-05-05T20:51:24.000Z","2014-05-05T20:51:24.000Z","2034-05-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Skype translator will be a huge success",35,,"TiTanTHPS","influnza",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-25T22:35:27.000Z","2014-06-07T17:33:40.000Z","2016-06-07T17:33:38.000Z"
"Skype translator will be a huge success",60,,"rebellionkid","influnza",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-06-10T09:27:55.000Z","2014-06-07T17:33:40.000Z","2016-06-07T17:33:38.000Z"
"Skype translator will be a huge success",75,,"influnza","influnza",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-06-07T17:33:40.000Z","2014-06-07T17:33:40.000Z","2016-06-07T17:33:38.000Z"
"Someone without foot and with artificial legs will do under 10 seconds at the 100 meters sprint before 2041.",85,,"Rowan93","Mati Roy","Well, obviously by 2041 that'll have happened, that'd seem to me a reasonable prediction for just this decade.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-10T13:44:21.000Z","2014-02-09T09:40:55.000Z","2042-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Someone without foot and with artificial legs will do under 10 seconds at the 100 meters sprint before 2041.",80,,"procran","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-12T21:31:03.000Z","2014-02-09T09:40:55.000Z","2042-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Someone without foot and with artificial legs will do under 10 seconds at the 100 meters sprint before 2041.",74,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-09T09:40:55.000Z","2014-02-09T09:40:55.000Z","2042-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the United States of America, driverless cars will have been sold to the public and it will have been legal at some point to use them on highways before 2050.",30,,"Amélie_Roy","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-07T20:14:56.000Z","2014-02-06T09:41:36.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the United States of America, driverless cars will have been sold to the public and it will have been legal at some point to use them on highways before 2050.",90,,"procran","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-12T21:31:18.000Z","2014-02-06T09:41:36.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the United States of America, driverless cars will have been sold to the public and it will have been legal at some point to use them on highways before 2050.",60,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-06T09:41:36.000Z","2014-02-06T09:41:36.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US dollar becomes an asset-backed currency under Trump's first term",1,,"Jach","Jach",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-17T05:03:33.000Z","2017-11-17T05:03:33.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"US dollar becomes an asset-backed currency under Trump's first term",0,,"iCrown","Jach",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-22T05:26:16.000Z","2017-11-17T05:03:33.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"US dollar becomes an asset-backed currency under Trump's first term",0,,"RobertLumley","Jach",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-11T22:50:36.000Z","2017-11-17T05:03:33.000Z","2021-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"RM Team switch by 18 Nov 2018.",99,,"amrav","amrav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-19T02:14:39.000Z","2017-11-19T02:14:39.000Z","2018-11-18T12:00:00.000Z"
"RM Team switch by 18 Nov 2018.",10,,"Nuwandavek","amrav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-19T02:34:47.000Z","2017-11-19T02:14:39.000Z","2018-11-18T12:00:00.000Z"
"RM Team switch by 18 Nov 2018.",30,,"rishicomplex","amrav","How does work",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-19T02:25:28.000Z","2017-11-19T02:14:39.000Z","2018-11-18T12:00:00.000Z"
"SLS to be cancelled outright or to launch at least once before 2025. ",85,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-27T01:27:03.000Z","2017-11-27T01:27:03.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"SLS to be cancelled outright or to launch at least once before 2025. ",90,,"chemotaxis101","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-27T09:29:28.000Z","2017-11-27T01:27:03.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"SLS to be cancelled outright or to launch at least once before 2025. ",88,,"Athrithalix","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-27T11:48:42.000Z","2017-11-27T01:27:03.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Contingent on losing her appeal, Amanda Knox will be extradited to Italy to serve her sentence. ",15,,"gwern","adbge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-31T16:22:06.000Z","2014-01-31T05:13:28.000Z","2018-01-31T16:13:28.000Z"
"Contingent on losing her appeal, Amanda Knox will be extradited to Italy to serve her sentence. ",50,,"adbge","adbge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-31T05:13:28.000Z","2014-01-31T05:13:28.000Z","2018-01-31T16:13:28.000Z"
"Contingent on losing her appeal, Amanda Knox will be extradited to Italy to serve her sentence. ",50,,"lettergram","adbge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-03T14:57:30.000Z","2014-01-31T05:13:28.000Z","2018-01-31T16:13:28.000Z"
"A law-enforcement agency or someone(s) interested in law enforcement will be revealed to have been the creator(s) of Bitcoin, and will have done so in order to track illegal dealings.",1,,"Nithi","EvanB",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-23T02:12:20.000Z","2014-01-18T00:42:34.000Z","2074-01-18T00:42:34.000Z"
"A law-enforcement agency or someone(s) interested in law enforcement will be revealed to have been the creator(s) of Bitcoin, and will have done so in order to track illegal dealings.",5,,"lavalamp","EvanB","It almost makes sense, but bitcoin is a little too close to being actually anonymous and I don't see a govt entity being quite that scarily competent.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-18T02:19:28.000Z","2014-01-18T00:42:34.000Z","2074-01-18T00:42:34.000Z"
"A law-enforcement agency or someone(s) interested in law enforcement will be revealed to have been the creator(s) of Bitcoin, and will have done so in order to track illegal dealings.",20,,"EvanB","EvanB",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-18T00:42:34.000Z","2014-01-18T00:42:34.000Z","2074-01-18T00:42:34.000Z"
"By 2030 consciousness, free will and qualia will be recognized as emergent properties of certain intelligences, and not phenomena that are dependent on any ""spirit"", ""god"" or quantum magic. This bc of progress in AI.",5,,"Vulture","waveman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-21T04:27:31.000Z","2014-01-05T02:05:45.000Z","2030-01-02T21:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030 consciousness, free will and qualia will be recognized as emergent properties of certain intelligences, and not phenomena that are dependent on any ""spirit"", ""god"" or quantum magic. This bc of progress in AI.",35,,"waveman","waveman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-05T02:05:45.000Z","2014-01-05T02:05:45.000Z","2030-01-02T21:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030 consciousness, free will and qualia will be recognized as emergent properties of certain intelligences, and not phenomena that are dependent on any ""spirit"", ""god"" or quantum magic. This bc of progress in AI.",20,,"mfb","waveman","Ending discussions (if possible by the first AI at all - even for humans of some skin colors this took very long) is far beyond the scope of the human brain project, and that is estimated as 1bn € and 10+ years from now.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-13T21:26:34.000Z","2014-01-05T02:05:45.000Z","2030-01-02T21:00:00.000Z"
"An hyperloop will be in use before 2030.",60,,"themusicgod1","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-05T10:50:04.000Z","2014-01-26T19:36:51.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"An hyperloop will be in use before 2030.",8,,"Patrick Brinich-Langlois","Mati Roy","My prediction is for something on the scale of San Francisco–Los Angeles, not San Francisco–Berkeley.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-27T09:17:22.000Z","2014-01-26T19:36:51.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"An hyperloop will be in use before 2030.",25,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-26T19:36:51.000Z","2014-01-26T19:36:51.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Another character from Breath of the Wild will be added in Smash for Switch, either on release or within 18 months of release.",40,,"gallerdude","Athrithalix",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-03-17T20:39:11.000Z","2018-03-16T10:50:53.000Z","2020-06-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Another character from Breath of the Wild will be added in Smash for Switch, either on release or within 18 months of release.",10,,"JTPeterson","Athrithalix",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-07-16T21:29:47.000Z","2018-03-16T10:50:53.000Z","2020-06-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Another character from Breath of the Wild will be added in Smash for Switch, either on release or within 18 months of release.",65,,"Athrithalix","Athrithalix",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-03-16T10:50:53.000Z","2018-03-16T10:50:53.000Z","2020-06-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Another character from Breath of the Wild will be added in Smash for Switch, either on release or within 18 months of release.",60,,"JTPeterson","Athrithalix",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-24T16:50:48.000Z","2018-03-16T10:50:53.000Z","2020-06-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Ireland will legalize Marijuana between 2021 and 2024",5,,"itaibn","deanmullen2014",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-11T18:54:18.000Z","2013-12-31T02:00:50.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ireland will legalize Marijuana between 2021 and 2024",3,,"itaibn","deanmullen2014",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-11T18:43:53.000Z","2013-12-31T02:00:50.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ireland will legalize Marijuana between 2021 and 2024",5,,"atroche","deanmullen2014",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-12-31T03:49:48.000Z","2013-12-31T02:00:50.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ireland will legalize Marijuana between 2021 and 2024",50,,"deanmullen2014","deanmullen2014",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-12-31T02:00:50.000Z","2013-12-31T02:00:50.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"You know what's hip if you know the name Peter Singer in 2150. People know his name now (2013) but he will be a Descartes, a Newton come 2150.",15,,"Patrick Brinich-Langlois","deanmullen2014","I remember another ethicist (Shelly Kagan?) saying something similar in a popular-press profile of Singer (that he hasn't contributed much to theory).",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-13T09:34:39.000Z","2013-12-31T01:23:14.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"You know what's hip if you know the name Peter Singer in 2150. People know his name now (2013) but he will be a Descartes, a Newton come 2150.",20,,"simplicio","deanmullen2014","As far as I can tell, Singer is more of a popularizer than an outstanding theorist. Presumably, the fame is to come from his promotion of ethical altruism? But his brand doesn't signal as well as Mother Teresa types, sadly.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-02T15:24:32.000Z","2013-12-31T01:23:14.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"You know what's hip if you know the name Peter Singer in 2150. People know his name now (2013) but he will be a Descartes, a Newton come 2150.",50,,"deanmullen2014","deanmullen2014",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-12-31T01:23:14.000Z","2013-12-31T01:23:14.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Gene drive found in the wild due to either unknown or rogue scientist in the wild before any gene drive released by a major NGO. ",10,,"Athrithalix","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-23T08:17:39.000Z","2018-04-20T03:52:53.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Gene drive found in the wild due to either unknown or rogue scientist in the wild before any gene drive released by a major NGO. ",20,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T23:01:47.000Z","2018-04-20T03:52:53.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Gene drive found in the wild due to either unknown or rogue scientist in the wild before any gene drive released by a major NGO. ",25,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-20T03:52:53.000Z","2018-04-20T03:52:53.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"E-books won't displace paper",90,,"livshitsrussia","livshitsrussia",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-26T03:59:50.000Z","2018-04-26T03:59:50.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"E-books won't displace paper",5,,"Hate9","livshitsrussia","Ever?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-07T22:36:46.000Z","2018-04-26T03:59:50.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"E-books won't displace paper",70,,"pranomostro","livshitsrussia","This question is somewhat ill-posed and has no clear resolution criteria.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-19T10:06:01.000Z","2018-04-26T03:59:50.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 90% of the developed world (probably more like 98%) will be consuming In-Vitro meat (they'll have a more popular name by then) instead of conventional meat by 2070.",80,,"deanmullen2014","deanmullen2014",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-12-31T01:09:50.000Z","2013-12-31T01:09:50.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 90% of the developed world (probably more like 98%) will be consuming In-Vitro meat (they'll have a more popular name by then) instead of conventional meat by 2070.",80,,"mfb","deanmullen2014","I consider 90% as the minimal fraction of in-vitro meat (stuff made out of animal cells used as equivalent replacement for actual animal parts) for this prediction.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-13T21:36:38.000Z","2013-12-31T01:09:50.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 90% of the developed world (probably more like 98%) will be consuming In-Vitro meat (they'll have a more popular name by then) instead of conventional meat by 2070.",80,,"Michael Dickens","deanmullen2014",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-12-31T06:35:36.000Z","2013-12-31T01:09:50.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a breach of a large cloud service provider that will compromise thousands of sensitive accounts within this decade.",85,,"itaibn","SRA311B",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-02T12:36:54.000Z","2013-12-07T02:48:51.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a breach of a large cloud service provider that will compromise thousands of sensitive accounts within this decade.",80,,"FestiveBleak","SRA311B",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-12-17T23:43:39.000Z","2013-12-07T02:48:51.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a breach of a large cloud service provider that will compromise thousands of sensitive accounts within this decade.",60,,"SRA311B","SRA311B",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-12-07T02:48:51.000Z","2013-12-07T02:48:51.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google will be the first company with a market cap of $1 trillion.",7,,"ChristianKl","Michael Dickens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-29T00:35:38.000Z","2013-10-26T06:21:59.000Z","2030-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"Google will be the first company with a market cap of $1 trillion.",20,,"Michael Dickens","Michael Dickens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-26T06:21:59.000Z","2013-10-26T06:21:59.000Z","2030-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"Google will be the first company with a market cap of $1 trillion.",10,,"procran","Michael Dickens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-27T21:05:51.000Z","2013-10-26T06:21:59.000Z","2030-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"The composite American from 2014-2024 will be more supportive of abortion restrictions than the composite American from 2003-2013.",68,,"pkfalu92","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-19T18:19:49.000Z","2013-10-21T00:54:13.000Z","2025-01-01T07:24:00.000Z"
"The composite American from 2014-2024 will be more supportive of abortion restrictions than the composite American from 2003-2013.",65,,"Samm","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-20T03:30:22.000Z","2013-10-21T00:54:13.000Z","2025-01-01T07:24:00.000Z"
"The composite American from 2014-2024 will be more supportive of abortion restrictions than the composite American from 2003-2013.",50,,"Omid","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-21T00:54:13.000Z","2013-10-21T00:54:13.000Z","2025-01-01T07:24:00.000Z"
"Issa will get a PhD",0,,"playablecharacter","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-12T07:27:47.000Z","2018-05-12T07:27:47.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Issa will get a PhD",30,,"Jotto999","playablecharacter","Updating only on the fact the poster is convinced they won't get a PhD.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-14T02:11:11.000Z","2018-05-12T07:27:47.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Issa will get a PhD",0,,"avi","playablecharacter","Nothing is safe.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-06-12T05:07:25.000Z","2018-05-12T07:27:47.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"After X-Men DFP, Hugh Jackman will reprise his role as Wolverine in another movie. ",45,,"RandomThinker","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-19T09:07:06.000Z","2013-11-11T03:48:59.000Z","2023-03-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"After X-Men DFP, Hugh Jackman will reprise his role as Wolverine in another movie. ",55,,"JoshuaZ","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-11T14:31:31.000Z","2013-11-11T03:48:59.000Z","2023-03-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"After X-Men DFP, Hugh Jackman will reprise his role as Wolverine in another movie. ",50,,"Omid","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-11T03:48:59.000Z","2013-11-11T03:48:59.000Z","2023-03-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The cost of one TFLOPS will be more than $0.9375 by 2029.",90,,"Baeboo","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T19:36:38.056Z","2018-09-02T20:27:22.000Z","2029-03-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"The cost of one TFLOPS will be more than $0.9375 by 2029.",90,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-02T20:27:22.000Z","2018-09-02T20:27:22.000Z","2029-03-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"The cost of one TFLOPS will be more than $0.9375 by 2029.",70,,"phi","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-05T22:21:32.000Z","2018-09-02T20:27:22.000Z","2029-03-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"[Gaydar] KJ Apa (Keneti James Fitzgerald ""KJ"" Apa) comes out as queer
",60,,"pranomostro","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-02T21:58:28.000Z","2018-10-31T22:23:53.000Z","2068-11-01T08:30:00.000Z"
"[Gaydar] KJ Apa (Keneti James Fitzgerald ""KJ"" Apa) comes out as queer
",86,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-10-31T22:23:53.000Z","2018-10-31T22:23:53.000Z","2068-11-01T08:30:00.000Z"
"[Gaydar] KJ Apa (Keneti James Fitzgerald ""KJ"" Apa) comes out as queer
",99,,"Jennifer","two2thehead","Mere denials presumably DO NOT give False. ""Very credibly outed against will"" counts as ""True""? Death before 2068 *without* coming out seems the only way to get a ""near term"" False?  Life expectancy for male New Zealander is 2076... I'm an optimist!",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-03T05:12:46.021Z","2018-10-31T22:23:53.000Z","2068-11-01T08:30:00.000Z"
"By 1/1/2022 GE stock will be at $15 or more a share.",35,,"bogusia_k","bogusia_k",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-12T02:33:12.000Z","2018-11-12T02:33:12.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 1/1/2022 GE stock will be at $15 or more a share.",20,,"pranomostro","bogusia_k",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-14T10:50:43.000Z","2018-11-12T02:33:12.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 1/1/2022 GE stock will be at $15 or more a share.",15,,"Baeboo","bogusia_k",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T19:06:02.456Z","2018-11-12T02:33:12.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Oculus will not realese a headset more expensive than 500$ in the next 5 years.",30,,"pranomostro","jazzsolo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-01T12:22:12.000Z","2018-12-01T10:24:27.000Z","2023-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Oculus will not realese a headset more expensive than 500$ in the next 5 years.",66,,"gallerdude","jazzsolo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-31T23:39:57.184Z","2018-12-01T10:24:27.000Z","2023-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Oculus will not realese a headset more expensive than 500$ in the next 5 years.",90,,"jazzsolo","jazzsolo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-01T10:24:27.000Z","2018-12-01T10:24:27.000Z","2023-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 10 years.",10,,"MultiplyByZer0","jazzsolo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-30T19:42:35.573Z","2018-12-03T21:24:48.078Z","2028-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 10 years.",5,,"MultiplyByZer0","jazzsolo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-30T03:00:57.519Z","2018-12-03T21:24:48.078Z","2028-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 10 years.",0,,"MultiplyByZer0","jazzsolo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T04:57:28.857Z","2018-12-03T21:24:48.078Z","2028-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 10 years.",99,,"jazzsolo","jazzsolo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-03T21:24:48.093Z","2018-12-03T21:24:48.078Z","2028-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 10 years.",35,,"pranomostro","jazzsolo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-06T18:52:49.293Z","2018-12-03T21:24:48.078Z","2028-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 20 people predict on Rapid Resolution Week 1?",20,"NO","Abigail T","Amanda N","8 so far","","users-Nov","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-16T02:50:08.043Z","2020-11-14T00:23:29.540Z","2020-11-20T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 20 people predict on Rapid Resolution Week 1?",60,"NO","Amanda N","Amanda N","","","users-Nov","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-14T00:26:05.893Z","2020-11-14T00:23:29.540Z","2020-11-20T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 20 people predict on Rapid Resolution Week 1?",50,"NO","Andreas S","Amanda N","","","users-Nov","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-14T00:25:31.305Z","2020-11-14T00:23:29.540Z","2020-11-20T07:00:00.000Z"
"Insects can feel pain and suffer",45,,"pranomostro","xdxdxd","Information: https://reducing-suffering.org/do-bugs-feel-pain/ and https://reducing-suffering.org/#Insects_and_other_invertebrates",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-04T20:17:52.407Z","2019-02-02T03:43:56.497Z","2050-03-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Insects can feel pain and suffer",40,,"xdxdxd","xdxdxd",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-02T03:43:56.505Z","2019-02-02T03:43:56.497Z","2050-03-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Insects can feel pain and suffer",92,,"Jennifer","xdxdxd","Most of my uncertainty comes from questions about the arrival and assessment of various forms of evidence. I would have thought this was just plainly true? I mean... fer chrissakes, some ants pass the mirror test! And they react to body damage. So... ?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-08T02:08:23.505Z","2019-02-02T03:43:56.497Z","2050-03-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Artie Lange is dead before the end of the year",15,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Coagulopath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-21T02:58:15.080Z","2019-02-13T00:20:26.922Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Artie Lange is dead before the end of the year",60,,"Coagulopath","Coagulopath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-13T00:20:26.935Z","2019-02-13T00:20:26.922Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Artie Lange is dead before the end of the year",45,,"pranomostro","Coagulopath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-14T19:59:48.256Z","2019-02-13T00:20:26.922Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Artie Lange is dead before the end of the year",22,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Coagulopath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-25T11:49:56.651Z","2019-02-13T00:20:26.922Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Guaido invokes Article 187 on the Venezuelan constitution before Jan 1, 2021",15,,"pranomostro","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-10T11:24:34.485Z","2019-03-10T10:33:08.975Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Guaido invokes Article 187 on the Venezuelan constitution before Jan 1, 2021",33,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-19T02:32:58.697Z","2019-03-10T10:33:08.975Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Guaido invokes Article 187 on the Venezuelan constitution before Jan 1, 2021",27,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-10T10:33:08.978Z","2019-03-10T10:33:08.975Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Guaido invokes Article 187 on the Venezuelan constitution before Jan 1, 2021",20,,"Baeboo","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-11T19:01:22.155Z","2019-03-10T10:33:08.975Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Guaido invokes Article 187 on the Venezuelan constitution before Jan 1, 2021",55,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-28T08:32:54.209Z","2019-03-10T10:33:08.975Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"If a hyperloop is created, it will be predominately (>50%) solar-powered.",60,,"mfb","Malcolm Ocean","How do you keep track of that number? Electrons do not carry signs ""produced by X"". My estimate is based on average electricity production / consumption only.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-20T18:57:49.000Z","2013-08-15T20:48:24.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"If a hyperloop is created, it will be predominately (>50%) solar-powered.",60,,"Flipnash","Malcolm Ocean",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-17T01:17:17.000Z","2013-08-15T20:48:24.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"If a hyperloop is created, it will be predominately (>50%) solar-powered.",40,,"Malcolm Ocean","Malcolm Ocean",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-15T20:48:24.000Z","2013-08-15T20:48:24.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"One of the first really big (>5bn$) hyperloops will go across a body of water",53,,"themusicgod1","Malcolm Ocean",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-05T10:51:54.000Z","2013-08-15T20:46:28.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"One of the first really big (>5bn$) hyperloops will go across a body of water",25,,"mfb","Malcolm Ocean","Not so easy to stabilize the strack in an ocean and there are few suitable lakes/rivers.
If there is no hyperloop built, we (or our descendants?) judge it unknown or delay the deadline.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-24T00:37:45.000Z","2013-08-15T20:46:28.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"One of the first really big (>5bn$) hyperloops will go across a body of water",60,,"Malcolm Ocean","Malcolm Ocean",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-15T20:46:29.000Z","2013-08-15T20:46:28.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kushner to remain in the White House for the entire duration of Trump's presidency",88,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-12T07:12:11.369Z","2019-04-12T07:12:11.366Z","2025-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kushner to remain in the White House for the entire duration of Trump's presidency",75,,"pranomostro","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-13T21:28:06.799Z","2019-04-12T07:12:11.366Z","2025-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kushner to remain in the White House for the entire duration of Trump's presidency",60,,"Paul.David.Carr","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-06-01T17:04:42.498Z","2019-04-12T07:12:11.366Z","2025-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"gwern branwen will change his personal pronouns from he/him to they/them.",66,,"deleteyourbrain","deleteyourbrain",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-27T20:55:42.458Z","2019-04-27T20:55:42.452Z","2025-04-28T11:06:00.000Z"
"gwern branwen will change his personal pronouns from he/him to they/them.",50,,"pranomostro","deleteyourbrain",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-30T21:13:20.815Z","2019-04-27T20:55:42.452Z","2025-04-28T11:06:00.000Z"
"gwern branwen will change his personal pronouns from he/him to they/them.",30,,"pranomostro","deleteyourbrain",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-30T21:19:11.463Z","2019-04-27T20:55:42.452Z","2025-04-28T11:06:00.000Z"
"gwern branwen will change his personal pronouns from he/him to they/them.",1,,"Baeboo","deleteyourbrain",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-01T02:23:42.708Z","2019-04-27T20:55:42.452Z","2025-04-28T11:06:00.000Z"
"E. Yudkowsky will coauthor a book with gwern.",0,,"Baeboo","deleteyourbrain",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-01T02:24:47.557Z","2019-04-29T04:47:02.458Z","2025-04-28T11:06:00.000Z"
"E. Yudkowsky will coauthor a book with gwern.",12,,"deleteyourbrain","deleteyourbrain",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-29T04:47:02.472Z","2019-04-29T04:47:02.458Z","2025-04-28T11:06:00.000Z"
"E. Yudkowsky will coauthor a book with gwern.",5,,"pranomostro","deleteyourbrain",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-30T21:19:21.561Z","2019-04-29T04:47:02.458Z","2025-04-28T11:06:00.000Z"
"Yeezy x Rick and Morty sneaker collaboration in the next 3 years
",65,,"prophetofprofit","prophetofprofit",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-17T02:12:45.531Z","2019-05-17T02:12:45.525Z","2022-05-17T02:12:45.000Z"
"Yeezy x Rick and Morty sneaker collaboration in the next 3 years
",35,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","prophetofprofit",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-17T06:36:10.588Z","2019-05-17T02:12:45.525Z","2022-05-17T02:12:45.000Z"
"Yeezy x Rick and Morty sneaker collaboration in the next 3 years
",15,,"pranomostro","prophetofprofit",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-24T15:27:21.037Z","2019-05-17T02:12:45.525Z","2022-05-17T02:12:45.000Z"
"Will more than 100 people make predictions in this database before end of November?",65,,"Amanda N","Andreas S","","","users-Nov","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-14T00:32:10.304Z","2020-11-14T00:27:19.802Z","2020-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 100 people make predictions in this database before end of November?",75,,"Andreas S","Andreas S","","","users-Nov","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-14T00:27:19.807Z","2020-11-14T00:27:19.802Z","2020-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 100 people make predictions in this database before end of November?",75,,"Tyle S","Andreas S","","","users-Nov","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T15:47:41.477Z","2020-11-14T00:27:19.802Z","2020-12-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by at least one woman within five (5) years",99,,"two2thehead","two2thehead","Let's go for broke",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-31T19:15:30.210Z","2019-07-19T18:15:43.014Z","2024-07-19T18:30:00.000Z"
"accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by at least one woman within five (5) years",80,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-08T05:43:57.699Z","2019-07-19T18:15:43.014Z","2024-07-19T18:30:00.000Z"
"accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by at least one woman within five (5) years",55,,"pranomostro","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-21T00:06:18.607Z","2019-07-19T18:15:43.014Z","2024-07-19T18:30:00.000Z"
"accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by at least one woman within five (5) years",65,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-19T18:15:43.018Z","2019-07-19T18:15:43.014Z","2024-07-19T18:30:00.000Z"
"accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by at least one woman within five (5) years",30,,"pranomostro","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-23T18:21:05.532Z","2019-07-22T02:29:55.034Z","2024-07-22T10:30:00.000Z"
"accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by at least one woman within five (5) years",65,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-22T02:29:55.037Z","2019-07-22T02:29:55.034Z","2024-07-22T10:30:00.000Z"
"accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by at least one woman within five (5) years",55,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-11T21:52:14.666Z","2019-07-22T02:29:55.034Z","2024-07-22T10:30:00.000Z"
"arrested within five (5) years",10,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-11T21:52:35.766Z","2019-07-22T02:29:55.041Z","2024-07-22T10:30:00.000Z"
"arrested within five (5) years",55,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-22T02:29:55.044Z","2019-07-22T02:29:55.041Z","2024-07-22T10:30:00.000Z"
"arrested within five (5) years",5,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-11T21:52:43.596Z","2019-07-22T02:29:55.041Z","2024-07-22T10:30:00.000Z"
"arrested within five (5) years",20,,"pranomostro","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-23T18:20:56.198Z","2019-07-22T02:29:55.041Z","2024-07-22T10:30:00.000Z"
"I will not believe in the Christian God in Jan 2023",99,,"stepan","wolfish_wrath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-10T12:30:37.905Z","2019-07-24T13:30:59.261Z","2023-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"I will not believe in the Christian God in Jan 2023",99,,"moyamo","wolfish_wrath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-29T07:20:56.788Z","2019-07-24T13:30:59.261Z","2023-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"I will not believe in the Christian God in Jan 2023",98,,"wolfish_wrath","wolfish_wrath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-24T13:30:59.265Z","2019-07-24T13:30:59.261Z","2023-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2100.",67,,"themusicgod1","Malcolm Ocean",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-05T10:50:58.000Z","2013-08-12T21:13:00.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2100.",41,,"JoshuaZ","Malcolm Ocean",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-13T01:25:33.000Z","2013-08-12T21:13:00.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2100.",50,,"Malcolm Ocean","Malcolm Ocean",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-12T21:13:00.000Z","2013-08-12T21:13:00.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Amazon rainforest fire triggers an irreversible catastrophic ecological collapse",5,,"pranomostro","predoindk","This would be hard to judge, even with a clear definition of ""irreversible catastrophic ecological collapse"", since it seems hard to determine what caused such a collapse.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-25T18:21:55.980Z","2019-08-23T09:48:46.757Z","2024-08-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Amazon rainforest fire triggers an irreversible catastrophic ecological collapse",20,,"predoindk","predoindk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-23T09:48:46.761Z","2019-08-23T09:48:46.757Z","2024-08-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Amazon rainforest fire triggers an irreversible catastrophic ecological collapse",1,,"stepan","predoindk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-10T12:26:44.008Z","2019-08-23T09:48:46.757Z","2024-08-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Data-centers get carbon taxed by the end of 2021",25,,"pranomostro","predoindk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-26T14:07:58.143Z","2019-08-25T07:47:21.814Z","2021-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Data-centers get carbon taxed by the end of 2021",20,,"predoindk","predoindk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-25T07:47:21.819Z","2019-08-25T07:47:21.814Z","2021-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Data-centers get carbon taxed by the end of 2021",80,,"stepan","predoindk","It doesn't state certain country, therefore I believe it applies on any country.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-10T12:25:46.055Z","2019-08-25T07:47:21.814Z","2021-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Hong Kong Dollar will not break peg in 2019 or 2020",100,,"stepan","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-10T12:23:13.145Z","2019-08-29T01:32:03.282Z","2020-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"Hong Kong Dollar will not break peg in 2019 or 2020",95,,"batemancapital","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-29T01:32:03.287Z","2019-08-29T01:32:03.282Z","2020-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"Hong Kong Dollar will not break peg in 2019 or 2020",70,,"pranomostro","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-29T20:49:18.827Z","2019-08-29T01:32:03.282Z","2020-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"Someone will succeed at the IMO grand challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) in the next 20 years.",25,,"crabman","krazemon","If this challenge is cancelled or for some reason noone cares about it, then this prediction counts at false, right?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-15T19:33:38.911Z","2019-09-15T14:01:39.201Z","2039-09-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Someone will succeed at the IMO grand challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) in the next 20 years.",50,,"pranomostro","krazemon","@crabman: I think it resolves as Unknown in that case.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-16T09:46:28.232Z","2019-09-15T14:01:39.201Z","2039-09-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Someone will succeed at the IMO grand challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) in the next 20 years.",66,,"krazemon","krazemon",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-15T14:01:39.205Z","2019-09-15T14:01:39.201Z","2039-09-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"SoftBank stock suffers 50% correction from its all-time-high by end of 2020",40,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-14T06:23:31.199Z","2019-09-18T02:54:42.255Z","2020-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"SoftBank stock suffers 50% correction from its all-time-high by end of 2020",30,,"pranomostro","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-22T16:11:26.347Z","2019-09-18T02:54:42.255Z","2020-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"SoftBank stock suffers 50% correction from its all-time-high by end of 2020",70,,"batemancapital","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-18T02:54:42.259Z","2019-09-18T02:54:42.255Z","2020-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"SoftBank stock suffers 50% correction from its all-time-high by end of 2020",20,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-18T05:08:44.052Z","2019-09-18T02:54:42.255Z","2020-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"Someone will succeed at the IMO grand challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) in the next 10 years.",16,,"pranomostro","krazemon",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-16T09:45:53.336Z","2019-09-15T14:01:04.165Z","2029-09-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Someone will succeed at the IMO grand challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) in the next 10 years.",13,,"crabman","krazemon",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-15T19:31:55.903Z","2019-09-15T14:01:04.165Z","2029-09-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Someone will succeed at the IMO grand challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) in the next 10 years.",25,,"krazemon","krazemon",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-15T14:01:04.172Z","2019-09-15T14:01:04.165Z","2029-09-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"China publicly announces an investigation into Hunter Biden",5,,"deoh","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-10-21T03:07:38.476Z","2019-10-04T23:01:15.800Z","2020-11-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"China publicly announces an investigation into Hunter Biden",1,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-10-04T23:01:15.802Z","2019-10-04T23:01:15.800Z","2020-11-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"China publicly announces an investigation into Hunter Biden",2,,"pranomostro","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-10-05T00:07:16.153Z","2019-10-04T23:01:15.800Z","2020-11-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"The helical engine works",0,,"wizzwizz4","wizzwizz4",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-09T17:50:22.859Z","2019-10-15T06:23:45.110Z","2025-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"The helical engine works",1,,"EvanWard97","wizzwizz4",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-10-16T08:45:52.657Z","2019-10-15T06:23:45.110Z","2025-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"The helical engine works",1,,"pranomostro","wizzwizz4",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-10-15T22:58:28.208Z","2019-10-15T06:23:45.110Z","2025-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"The helical engine works",1,,"wizzwizz4","wizzwizz4",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-10-15T06:23:45.119Z","2019-10-15T06:23:45.110Z","2025-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"se formará gobierno y durará al menos un año",12,,"Bruno Parga","sortega",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-04T02:38:05.621Z","2019-11-12T06:46:16.402Z","2020-05-12T06:46:16.000Z"
"se formará gobierno y durará al menos un año",50,,"sortega","sortega",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-13T07:16:46.918Z","2019-11-12T06:46:16.402Z","2020-05-12T06:46:16.000Z"
"se formará gobierno y durará al menos un año",2,,"Pacres","sortega",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-12T14:52:42.222Z","2019-11-12T06:46:16.402Z","2020-05-12T06:46:16.000Z"
"se formará gobierno y durará al menos un año",40,,"sortega","sortega",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-12T06:46:16.405Z","2019-11-12T06:46:16.402Z","2020-05-12T06:46:16.000Z"
"se formará gobierno y durará al menos un año",60,,"sortega","sortega",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-04T09:44:13.494Z","2019-11-12T06:46:16.402Z","2020-05-12T06:46:16.000Z"
"se formará gobierno y durará al menos un año",6,,"Bruno Parga","sortega",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-07T18:11:46.486Z","2019-11-12T06:46:16.402Z","2020-05-12T06:46:16.000Z"
"se formará gobierno y durará al menos un año",80,,"Pacres","sortega",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-13T07:24:40.205Z","2019-11-12T06:46:16.402Z","2020-05-12T06:46:16.000Z"
"se formará gobierno y durará al menos un año",10,,"Pacres","sortega",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-12T07:07:44.541Z","2019-11-12T06:46:16.402Z","2020-05-12T06:46:16.000Z"
"se formará gobierno y durará al menos dos años",3,,"Bruno Parga","sortega",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-07T18:11:40.503Z","2019-11-12T06:46:16.411Z","2020-05-12T06:46:16.000Z"
"se formará gobierno y durará al menos dos años",7,,"Bruno Parga","sortega",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-04T02:37:52.975Z","2019-11-12T06:46:16.411Z","2020-05-12T06:46:16.000Z"
"se formará gobierno y durará al menos dos años",75,,"Pacres","sortega",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-13T07:25:15.705Z","2019-11-12T06:46:16.411Z","2020-05-12T06:46:16.000Z"
"se formará gobierno y durará al menos dos años",30,,"sortega","sortega",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-12T06:46:16.413Z","2019-11-12T06:46:16.411Z","2020-05-12T06:46:16.000Z"
"se formará gobierno y durará al menos dos años",35,,"sortega","sortega",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-13T07:18:27.113Z","2019-11-12T06:46:16.411Z","2020-05-12T06:46:16.000Z"
"se formará gobierno y durará al menos dos años",15,,"Pacres","sortega",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-12T15:12:21.120Z","2019-11-12T06:46:16.411Z","2020-05-12T06:46:16.000Z"
"se formará gobierno y durará al menos dos años",5,,"Pacres","sortega",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-12T07:09:53.505Z","2019-11-12T06:46:16.411Z","2020-05-12T06:46:16.000Z"
"se formará gobierno y agotará legislatura",20,,"sortega","sortega",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-04T09:45:08.228Z","2019-11-12T06:46:16.417Z","2020-05-12T06:46:16.000Z"
"se formará gobierno y agotará legislatura",25,,"sortega","sortega",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-13T07:18:35.030Z","2019-11-12T06:46:16.417Z","2020-05-12T06:46:16.000Z"
"se formará gobierno y agotará legislatura",70,,"Pacres","sortega",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-12T14:53:48.008Z","2019-11-12T06:46:16.417Z","2020-05-12T06:46:16.000Z"
"se formará gobierno y agotará legislatura",30,,"Pacres","sortega",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-12T07:10:02.026Z","2019-11-12T06:46:16.417Z","2020-05-12T06:46:16.000Z"
"se formará gobierno y agotará legislatura",1,,"Bruno Parga","sortega",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-07T18:11:28.112Z","2019-11-12T06:46:16.417Z","2020-05-12T06:46:16.000Z"
"se formará gobierno y agotará legislatura",5,,"Bruno Parga","sortega","La fecha de cierre está demasiado temprana, no? La legislatura debe ir hasta el 2023.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-04T02:36:55.802Z","2019-11-12T06:46:16.417Z","2020-05-12T06:46:16.000Z"
"se formará gobierno y agotará legislatura",20,,"sortega","sortega",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-12T06:46:16.420Z","2019-11-12T06:46:16.417Z","2020-05-12T06:46:16.000Z"
"My November 2020 self will think Brexit is on net bad (ALL things considered)",45,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","wolfish_wrath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-14T06:29:39.963Z","2019-11-20T23:09:46.342Z","2020-11-20T23:09:46.000Z"
"My November 2020 self will think Brexit is on net bad (ALL things considered)",80,,"wolfish_wrath","wolfish_wrath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-20T23:09:46.349Z","2019-11-20T23:09:46.342Z","2020-11-20T23:09:46.000Z"
"My November 2020 self will think Brexit is on net bad (ALL things considered)",80,,"pranomostro","wolfish_wrath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-30T00:43:59.011Z","2019-11-20T23:09:46.342Z","2020-11-20T23:09:46.000Z"
"My November 2020 self will think Brexit is on net bad (ALL things considered)",75,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","wolfish_wrath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-21T09:01:37.627Z","2019-11-20T23:09:46.342Z","2020-11-20T23:09:46.000Z"
"[AWS] re:invent 2020 will announce the next iteration of DeepRacer - head to head combat robot competitions (think battle bots)",80,,"bly","bly",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-03T02:42:23.662Z","2019-12-03T02:42:23.656Z","2020-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"[AWS] re:invent 2020 will announce the next iteration of DeepRacer - head to head combat robot competitions (think battle bots)",0,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","bly","Robots bashing each other's brains in... won't be a good look. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-23T10:19:56.789Z","2019-12-03T02:42:23.656Z","2020-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"[AWS] re:invent 2020 will announce the next iteration of DeepRacer - head to head combat robot competitions (think battle bots)",45,,"pranomostro","bly","I'll use the absurdity heuristic.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-06T09:37:18.545Z","2019-12-03T02:42:23.656Z","2020-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Star Wars movie is released in December 2022",50,,"Bruno Parga","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-04T01:09:05.355Z","2019-12-29T11:01:41.190Z","2022-12-25T11:00:00.000Z"
"A Star Wars movie is released in December 2022",40,,"qznc","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-29T11:01:41.196Z","2019-12-29T11:01:41.190Z","2022-12-25T11:00:00.000Z"
"A Star Wars movie is released in December 2022",60,,"pranomostro","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-29T15:03:17.046Z","2019-12-29T11:01:41.190Z","2022-12-25T11:00:00.000Z"
"Scotland's parliament votes for independence referendum",55,,"qznc","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-03T13:23:09.327Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.745Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Scotland's parliament votes for independence referendum",40,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-02T22:45:45.748Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.745Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Scotland's parliament votes for independence referendum",60,,"pranomostro","Bruno Parga","Just be be clear: the question is about the vote for having another referendum, not the referendum for leaving itself, right?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-11T15:56:28.486Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.745Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"United States falls into recession during the next 12 months",25,,"bcongdon","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T04:38:37.694Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.824Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"United States falls into recession during the next 12 months",25,,"pranomostro","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-11T16:13:34.557Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.824Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"United States falls into recession during the next 12 months",20,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-02T22:45:45.827Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.824Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"S&P 500 stock index ends year at least 10% down",63,,"benmanns","Bruno Parga","SPX puts",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-13T22:44:37.442Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.833Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"S&P 500 stock index ends year at least 10% down",36,,"benmanns","Bruno Parga","SPX puts",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-26T23:38:37.718Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.833Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"S&P 500 stock index ends year at least 10% down",17,,"benmanns","Bruno Parga","SPX put 2925",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-03T00:38:04.491Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.833Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"S&P 500 stock index ends year at least 10% down",11,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-02T22:45:45.836Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.833Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"S&P 500 stock index ends year at least 10% down",12,,"pranomostro","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-11T16:13:44.157Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.833Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Someone sells a hoverboard by 2030",5,,"pranomostro","qznc","Do we know how this could be implemented technically in practice?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-11T16:41:42.008Z","2020-01-03T13:05:50.411Z","2030-12-31T11:00:00.000Z"
"Someone sells a hoverboard by 2030",7,,"Bruno Parga","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-04T01:04:26.468Z","2020-01-03T13:05:50.411Z","2030-12-31T11:00:00.000Z"
"Someone sells a hoverboard by 2030",5,,"qznc","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-03T13:05:50.414Z","2020-01-03T13:05:50.411Z","2030-12-31T11:00:00.000Z"
"Some car company will sell SAE level 3 cars in the next 10 years.",80,,"Bruno Parga","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-04T01:05:02.413Z","2020-01-03T14:04:36.434Z","2030-12-31T11:00:00.000Z"
"Some car company will sell SAE level 3 cars in the next 10 years.",85,,"pranomostro","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-17T16:07:05.451Z","2020-01-03T14:04:36.434Z","2030-12-31T11:00:00.000Z"
"Some car company will sell SAE level 3 cars in the next 10 years.",80,,"qznc","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-03T14:04:36.439Z","2020-01-03T14:04:36.434Z","2030-12-31T11:00:00.000Z"
"Britain gets a new monarch",35,,"pranomostro","Bruno Parga","The queen would be 104 years old at that point. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-11T16:15:55.883Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.862Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Britain gets a new monarch",20,,"qznc","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-03T13:21:36.809Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.862Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Britain gets a new monarch",15,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-02T22:45:45.865Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.862Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a Robotaxi available somewhere",60,,"pranomostro","qznc","Assume self-driving taxi, somewhere being for consumers.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-11T16:39:53.002Z","2020-01-03T14:06:31.327Z","2030-12-31T11:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a Robotaxi available somewhere",75,,"skaye","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-04T17:17:55.888Z","2020-01-03T14:06:31.327Z","2030-12-31T11:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a Robotaxi available somewhere",20,,"qznc","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-03T14:06:31.332Z","2020-01-03T14:06:31.327Z","2030-12-31T11:00:00.000Z"
"There is a base on the surface of the Moon and there is always someone there.",10,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-15T07:53:35.872Z","2020-01-03T19:26:13.661Z","2030-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"There is a base on the surface of the Moon and there is always someone there.",5,,"pranomostro","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-11T16:46:30.268Z","2020-01-03T19:26:13.661Z","2030-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"There is a base on the surface of the Moon and there is always someone there.",1,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-03T19:26:13.666Z","2020-01-03T19:26:13.661Z","2030-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"In 2030, global greenhouse gas emissions have been at most 50% of those in 2018.",6,,"Baeboo","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-12T19:36:07.650Z","2020-01-03T19:29:26.018Z","2031-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"In 2030, global greenhouse gas emissions have been at most 50% of those in 2018.",2,,"pranomostro","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-11T16:46:14.103Z","2020-01-03T19:29:26.018Z","2031-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"In 2030, global greenhouse gas emissions have been at most 50% of those in 2018.",2,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-03T19:29:26.022Z","2020-01-03T19:29:26.018Z","2031-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"have >= 270 electoral votes",1,,"pranomostro","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-17T16:33:01.051Z","2020-01-04T00:32:34.175Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"have >= 270 electoral votes",1,,"peter_hurford","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-15T16:14:13.263Z","2020-01-04T00:32:34.175Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"have >= 270 electoral votes",0,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-04T00:32:34.178Z","2020-01-04T00:32:34.175Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"[Personal] I will read at least 64 books in 2020",88,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-26T00:42:51.082Z","2020-01-07T04:10:24.781Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Personal] I will read at least 64 books in 2020",87,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-18T04:14:10.957Z","2020-01-07T04:10:24.781Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Personal] I will read at least 64 books in 2020",3,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-22T08:53:04.317Z","2020-01-07T04:10:24.781Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Personal] I will read at least 64 books in 2020",89,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-15T08:08:04.664Z","2020-01-07T04:10:24.781Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Personal] I will read at least 64 books in 2020",60,,"sty.silver","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-18T12:57:52.919Z","2020-01-07T04:10:24.781Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Personal] I will read at least 64 books in 2020",90,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-29T03:13:35.256Z","2020-01-07T04:10:24.781Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Personal] I will read at least 64 books in 2020",87,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-07T04:10:24.785Z","2020-01-07T04:10:24.781Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Waymo offers rides to the airport this year.",25,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-18T00:44:55.087Z","2020-01-08T18:21:21.179Z","2020-12-30T11:00:00.000Z"
"Waymo offers rides to the airport this year.",50,,"pranomostro","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-11T15:44:42.897Z","2020-01-08T18:21:21.179Z","2020-12-30T11:00:00.000Z"
"Waymo offers rides to the airport this year.",40,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-09T08:37:49.203Z","2020-01-08T18:21:21.179Z","2020-12-30T11:00:00.000Z"
"Waymo offers rides to the airport this year.",60,,"qznc","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-08T18:21:21.184Z","2020-01-08T18:21:21.179Z","2020-12-30T11:00:00.000Z"
"Nicolás Maduro will be president of Venezuela on Dec. 31, 2020",85,,"peter_hurford","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-06T14:48:59.121Z","2020-01-15T16:43:58.647Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Nicolás Maduro will be president of Venezuela on Dec. 31, 2020",76,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-04T09:40:30.476Z","2020-01-15T16:43:58.647Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Nicolás Maduro will be president of Venezuela on Dec. 31, 2020",86,,"pranomostro","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-17T16:15:00.954Z","2020-01-15T16:43:58.647Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Nicolás Maduro will be president of Venezuela on Dec. 31, 2020",80,,"peter_hurford","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-15T16:43:58.650Z","2020-01-15T16:43:58.647Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google's decision to remove support for third-party cookies in Chrome will be ruled an antitrust violation in the United States before 2025. ",90,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-17T08:01:00.282Z","2020-01-17T08:01:00.279Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Google's decision to remove support for third-party cookies in Chrome will be ruled an antitrust violation in the United States before 2025. ",20,,"sjy","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-07T00:13:12.570Z","2020-01-17T08:01:00.279Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Google's decision to remove support for third-party cookies in Chrome will be ruled an antitrust violation in the United States before 2025. ",75,,"pranomostro","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-17T16:12:38.427Z","2020-01-17T08:01:00.279Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"California has an earthquake with either one death or >$1B in damage in 2020",18,,"peter_hurford","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-18T22:01:59.937Z","2020-01-18T22:01:59.934Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"California has an earthquake with either one death or >$1B in damage in 2020",15,,"pranomostro","peter_hurford","I should look up what the baserate for this is. Also, exactly one death or >=1 deaths? Also, (1 death OR >$1B in damage) or (1 death XOR >$1B in damage)?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-21T17:18:43.963Z","2020-01-18T22:01:59.934Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"California has an earthquake with either one death or >$1B in damage in 2020",25,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-21T09:08:06.023Z","2020-01-18T22:01:59.934Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"As a currently healthy, 17 year old male, I will personally achieve medical immortality within my natural lifespan. (note: this does not include cryonic preservation and revival)",5,,"lavalamp","DiscyD3rp","Over all total futures, though, I think the chances are not so good...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-02T22:04:27.000Z","2013-07-01T23:25:53.000Z","2113-07-01T23:25:53.000Z"
"As a currently healthy, 17 year old male, I will personally achieve medical immortality within my natural lifespan. (note: this does not include cryonic preservation and revival)",35,,"JoshuaZ","DiscyD3rp",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-01T23:52:29.000Z","2013-07-01T23:25:53.000Z","2113-07-01T23:25:53.000Z"
"As a currently healthy, 17 year old male, I will personally achieve medical immortality within my natural lifespan. (note: this does not include cryonic preservation and revival)",50,,"DiscyD3rp","DiscyD3rp",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-01T23:25:53.000Z","2013-07-01T23:25:53.000Z","2113-07-01T23:25:53.000Z"
"As a currently healthy, 17 year old male, I will personally achieve medical immortality within my natural lifespan. (note: this does not include cryonic preservation and revival)",60,,"lavalamp","DiscyD3rp","I expect that this will be true in most futures in which I'm around to observe the year 2113.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-02T22:03:20.000Z","2013-07-01T23:25:53.000Z","2113-07-01T23:25:53.000Z"
"Twin prime conjecture solved by 2050",60,,"holycow81","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-27T03:26:25.000Z","2013-05-14T17:08:14.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Twin prime conjecture solved by 2050",70,,"Bruno Parga","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-01T16:03:52.275Z","2013-05-14T17:08:14.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Twin prime conjecture solved by 2050",55,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-14T17:08:15.000Z","2013-05-14T17:08:14.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Twin prime conjecture solved by 2050",65,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-01T14:23:57.514Z","2013-05-14T17:08:14.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will be accepted into a top 10 Economics PHD program in the following decade.",40,,"Tuxedage","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-08T02:13:38.000Z","2013-05-08T02:13:38.000Z","2020-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"I will be accepted into a top 10 Economics PHD program in the following decade.",15,,"Jayson Virissimo","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-14T01:59:32.000Z","2013-05-08T02:13:38.000Z","2020-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"I will be accepted into a top 10 Economics PHD program in the following decade.",5,,"atroche","Tuxedage","There are lot of University ranking systems. Which ones are ""reputable""? 

And do you mean ones in the top 10 now, or at any time over the following decade?

Because this could be a huge number of universities.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-30T07:11:14.000Z","2013-05-08T02:13:38.000Z","2020-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"Life discovered on Jupiter in next 100 years. ",4,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T15:09:39.000Z","2013-04-26T15:54:32.000Z","2113-04-26T15:54:32.000Z"
"Life discovered on Jupiter in next 100 years. ",1,,"ShIxtan","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-30T04:46:15.000Z","2013-04-26T15:54:32.000Z","2113-04-26T15:54:32.000Z"
"Life discovered on Jupiter in next 100 years. ",5,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-26T15:54:32.000Z","2013-04-26T15:54:32.000Z","2113-04-26T15:54:32.000Z"
"A nationwide effort to legalize polygamy",75,,"elmerfudd1","elmerfudd1","It may not happen that fast....",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-26T23:25:26.000Z","2013-03-26T22:50:35.000Z","2025-06-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"A nationwide effort to legalize polygamy",90,,"elmerfudd1","elmerfudd1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-26T22:50:35.000Z","2013-03-26T22:50:35.000Z","2025-06-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"A nationwide effort to legalize polygamy",41,,"themusicgod1","elmerfudd1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T15:05:01.000Z","2013-03-26T22:50:35.000Z","2025-06-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"A nationwide effort to legalize polygamy",30,,"Osuniev","elmerfudd1","I may misunderstand the ""nationwide effort..."" that seems pretty unlikely to me.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-15T00:22:46.000Z","2013-03-26T22:50:35.000Z","2025-06-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2025, it will be proven that any  odd perfect number is divisible by the sixth power of some prime. ",60,,"ChristianKl","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-03-05T22:28:59.000Z","2013-02-24T15:22:33.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2025, it will be proven that any  odd perfect number is divisible by the sixth power of some prime. ",75,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-24T15:22:34.000Z","2013-02-24T15:22:33.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2025, it will be proven that any  odd perfect number is divisible by the sixth power of some prime. ",46,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T15:01:23.000Z","2013-02-24T15:22:33.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US to withdraw from Five Eyes, conditional on UK decision to incorporate Huawei technologies into their 5G telecom infrastructure",85,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-18T10:53:23.929Z","2020-02-18T10:53:23.928Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US to withdraw from Five Eyes, conditional on UK decision to incorporate Huawei technologies into their 5G telecom infrastructure",20,,"Andrew MacFie","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-26T14:49:24.668Z","2020-02-18T10:53:23.928Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US to withdraw from Five Eyes, conditional on UK decision to incorporate Huawei technologies into their 5G telecom infrastructure",40,,"pranomostro","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-20T13:02:25.236Z","2020-02-18T10:53:23.928Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A nuclear fusion reactor will hit an economic breakeven before January 1st 2057, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins.",60,,"ejlflop","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-16T09:18:32.910Z","2020-02-23T18:06:13.061Z","2057-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A nuclear fusion reactor will hit an economic breakeven before January 1st 2057, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins.",45,,"pranomostro","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-05T23:19:42.415Z","2020-02-23T18:06:13.061Z","2057-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A nuclear fusion reactor will hit an economic breakeven before January 1st 2057, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins.",50,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-23T18:06:13.066Z","2020-02-23T18:06:13.061Z","2057-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"May",20,,"sabs81","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-12T22:47:54.957Z","2020-02-24T20:04:59.931Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"May",20,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-10T00:18:29.056Z","2020-02-24T20:04:59.931Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"May",20,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-06T16:02:29.182Z","2020-02-24T20:04:59.931Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"May",15,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-24T20:04:59.939Z","2020-02-24T20:04:59.931Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"June",35,,"sabs81","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-12T22:46:55.118Z","2020-02-24T20:04:59.944Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"June",12,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-10T00:18:31.072Z","2020-02-24T20:04:59.944Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"June",10,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-06T16:02:33.943Z","2020-02-24T20:04:59.944Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"June",10,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-24T20:04:59.950Z","2020-02-24T20:04:59.944Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"July",15,,"sabs81","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-12T22:48:28.007Z","2020-02-24T20:04:59.957Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"July",10,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-10T00:18:33.555Z","2020-02-24T20:04:59.957Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"July",8,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-06T16:02:37.627Z","2020-02-24T20:04:59.957Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"July",10,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-24T20:04:59.964Z","2020-02-24T20:04:59.957Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"August",10,,"sabs81","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-12T22:48:43.148Z","2020-02-24T20:04:59.971Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"August",6,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-10T00:18:35.835Z","2020-02-24T20:04:59.971Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"August",10,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-06T16:02:42.501Z","2020-02-24T20:04:59.971Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"August",10,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-24T20:04:59.976Z","2020-02-24T20:04:59.971Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"September",5,,"sabs81","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-12T22:48:56.927Z","2020-02-24T20:04:59.980Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"September",5,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-10T00:18:37.556Z","2020-02-24T20:04:59.980Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"September",7,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-06T16:02:47.892Z","2020-02-24T20:04:59.980Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"September",5,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-24T20:04:59.983Z","2020-02-24T20:04:59.980Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"October",2,,"sabs81","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-12T22:49:12.157Z","2020-02-24T20:04:59.987Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"October",5,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-10T00:18:39.430Z","2020-02-24T20:04:59.987Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"October",7,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-06T16:02:50.346Z","2020-02-24T20:04:59.987Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"October",5,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-24T20:04:59.990Z","2020-02-24T20:04:59.987Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"November",5,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-06T16:02:54.605Z","2020-02-24T20:04:59.994Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"November",1,,"sabs81","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-12T22:49:20.528Z","2020-02-24T20:04:59.994Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"November",5,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-10T00:18:41.698Z","2020-02-24T20:04:59.994Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"November",5,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-24T20:04:59.997Z","2020-02-24T20:04:59.994Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"December",5,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-06T16:02:57.278Z","2020-02-24T20:05:00.002Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"December",1,,"sabs81","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-12T22:49:30.021Z","2020-02-24T20:05:00.002Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"December",5,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-10T00:18:43.622Z","2020-02-24T20:05:00.002Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"December",5,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-24T20:05:00.006Z","2020-02-24T20:05:00.002Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Vital Study (http://www.vitalstudy.org) will find that fish oil significantly reduces mortality. ",50,,"themusicgod1","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T14:47:00.000Z","2013-01-07T02:09:25.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Vital Study (http://www.vitalstudy.org) will find that fish oil significantly reduces mortality. ",20,,"Tuxedage","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-07T04:27:38.000Z","2013-01-07T02:09:25.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Vital Study (http://www.vitalstudy.org) will find that fish oil significantly reduces mortality. ",65,,"ChristianKl","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-07T02:09:27.000Z","2013-01-07T02:09:25.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Dakiti"" by Bad Bunny & Jhay Cortez, #9 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #10 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",60,,"William Keen","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T01:39:05.047Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Dakiti"" by Bad Bunny & Jhay Cortez, #9 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #10 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",65,,"Eli Lifland","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T18:31:46.545Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Dakiti"" by Bad Bunny & Jhay Cortez, #9 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #10 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",50,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-11T23:45:12.569Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Dakiti"" by Bad Bunny & Jhay Cortez, #9 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #10 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",44,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-11T23:44:27.933Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Over the next 20 years loop quantum gravity will dominate the efforts to reconcile Relativity with Quantum Mechanics. ",46,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T14:38:28.000Z","2012-11-29T22:38:22.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Over the next 20 years loop quantum gravity will dominate the efforts to reconcile Relativity with Quantum Mechanics. ",35,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-16T13:59:58.000Z","2012-11-29T22:38:22.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Over the next 20 years loop quantum gravity will dominate the efforts to reconcile Relativity with Quantum Mechanics. ",70,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-29T22:38:22.000Z","2012-11-29T22:38:22.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within 50 years, excavations on Flores Island will show that Homo floresiensis survived into historical times. ",35,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-01T13:36:57.000Z","2012-11-28T15:35:16.000Z","2063-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within 50 years, excavations on Flores Island will show that Homo floresiensis survived into historical times. ",46,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T14:38:16.000Z","2012-11-28T15:35:16.000Z","2063-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within 50 years, excavations on Flores Island will show that Homo floresiensis survived into historical times. ",80,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-28T15:35:16.000Z","2012-11-28T15:35:16.000Z","2063-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Intrade (or a similar real money prediction market) will be legal in the US by 2026",50,,"themusicgod1","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T14:37:56.000Z","2012-11-28T05:09:40.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Intrade (or a similar real money prediction market) will be legal in the US by 2026",45,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-28T05:09:40.000Z","2012-11-28T05:09:40.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Intrade (or a similar real money prediction market) will be legal in the US by 2026",30,,"Qiaochu","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-29T07:50:21.000Z","2012-11-28T05:09:40.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""WAP"" by Cardi B Featuring Megan Thee Stallion, #10 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #11 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",45,,"William Keen","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T01:38:47.534Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""WAP"" by Cardi B Featuring Megan Thee Stallion, #10 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #11 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",25,,"William Keen","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T01:38:33.291Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""WAP"" by Cardi B Featuring Megan Thee Stallion, #10 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #11 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",40,,"Eli Lifland","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T18:32:03.223Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""WAP"" by Cardi B Featuring Megan Thee Stallion, #10 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #11 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",35,,"Eli Lifland","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T18:31:52.293Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""WAP"" by Cardi B Featuring Megan Thee Stallion, #10 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #11 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",49,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-11T23:45:15.440Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""WAP"" by Cardi B Featuring Megan Thee Stallion, #10 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #11 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",42,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-11T23:44:27.718Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"[Geopolitics] Venezuelan regime change (defined as Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) (born 23 November 1962) not being President of Venezuela) within one year",9,,"JoshuaZ","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-11T13:52:11.183Z","2020-04-03T14:45:24.721Z","2021-04-03T21:30:00.000Z"
"[Geopolitics] Venezuelan regime change (defined as Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) (born 23 November 1962) not being President of Venezuela) within one year",8,,"Baeboo","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-11T02:14:24.655Z","2020-04-03T14:45:24.721Z","2021-04-03T21:30:00.000Z"
"[Geopolitics] Venezuelan regime change (defined as Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) (born 23 November 1962) not being President of Venezuela) within one year",21,,"Baeboo","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-01T21:58:14.161Z","2020-04-03T14:45:24.721Z","2021-04-03T21:30:00.000Z"
"[Geopolitics] Venezuelan regime change (defined as Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) (born 23 November 1962) not being President of Venezuela) within one year",15,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-01T02:09:32.051Z","2020-04-03T14:45:24.721Z","2021-04-03T21:30:00.000Z"
"[Geopolitics] Venezuelan regime change (defined as Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) (born 23 November 1962) not being President of Venezuela) within one year",20,,"Baeboo","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-25T04:58:37.161Z","2020-04-03T14:45:24.721Z","2021-04-03T21:30:00.000Z"
"[Geopolitics] Venezuelan regime change (defined as Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) (born 23 November 1962) not being President of Venezuela) within one year",15,,"Baeboo","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-25T04:58:07.086Z","2020-04-03T14:45:24.721Z","2021-04-03T21:30:00.000Z"
"[Geopolitics] Venezuelan regime change (defined as Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) (born 23 November 1962) not being President of Venezuela) within one year",24,,"JoshuaZ","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-24T22:29:37.351Z","2020-04-03T14:45:24.721Z","2021-04-03T21:30:00.000Z"
"[Geopolitics] Venezuelan regime change (defined as Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) (born 23 November 1962) not being President of Venezuela) within one year",35,,"JoshuaZ","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-04T18:08:55.389Z","2020-04-03T14:45:24.721Z","2021-04-03T21:30:00.000Z"
"[Geopolitics] Venezuelan regime change (defined as Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) (born 23 November 1962) not being President of Venezuela) within one year",34,,"Baeboo","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-03T03:03:41.450Z","2020-04-03T14:45:24.721Z","2021-04-03T21:30:00.000Z"
"[Geopolitics] Venezuelan regime change (defined as Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) (born 23 November 1962) not being President of Venezuela) within one year",49,,"Baeboo","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-11T06:23:06.531Z","2020-04-03T14:45:24.721Z","2021-04-03T21:30:00.000Z"
"[Geopolitics] Venezuelan regime change (defined as Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) (born 23 November 1962) not being President of Venezuela) within one year",45,,"Baeboo","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-03T20:21:21.103Z","2020-04-03T14:45:24.721Z","2021-04-03T21:30:00.000Z"
"[Geopolitics] Venezuelan regime change (defined as Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) (born 23 November 1962) not being President of Venezuela) within one year",14,,"Baeboo","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T07:15:57.048Z","2020-04-03T14:45:24.721Z","2021-04-03T21:30:00.000Z"
"[Geopolitics] Venezuelan regime change (defined as Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) (born 23 November 1962) not being President of Venezuela) within one year",18,,"JoshuaZ","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-01T12:27:13.644Z","2020-04-03T14:45:24.721Z","2021-04-03T21:30:00.000Z"
"[Geopolitics] Venezuelan regime change (defined as Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) (born 23 November 1962) not being President of Venezuela) within one year",35,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-25T13:18:59.195Z","2020-04-03T14:45:24.721Z","2021-04-03T21:30:00.000Z"
"[Geopolitics] Venezuelan regime change (defined as Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) (born 23 November 1962) not being President of Venezuela) within one year",38,,"JoshuaZ","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-27T01:42:52.271Z","2020-04-03T14:45:24.721Z","2021-04-03T21:30:00.000Z"
"[Geopolitics] Venezuelan regime change (defined as Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) (born 23 November 1962) not being President of Venezuela) within one year",30,,"Baeboo","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-26T23:50:28.257Z","2020-04-03T14:45:24.721Z","2021-04-03T21:30:00.000Z"
"[Geopolitics] Venezuelan regime change (defined as Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) (born 23 November 1962) not being President of Venezuela) within one year",46,,"Baeboo","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-16T05:48:18.495Z","2020-04-03T14:45:24.721Z","2021-04-03T21:30:00.000Z"
"[Geopolitics] Venezuelan regime change (defined as Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) (born 23 November 1962) not being President of Venezuela) within one year",51,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-03T14:45:24.726Z","2020-04-03T14:45:24.721Z","2021-04-03T21:30:00.000Z"
"Will ""Holy"" by Justin Bieber Featuring Chance The Rapper, #11 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #12 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",45,,"William Keen","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T01:38:18.411Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Holy"" by Justin Bieber Featuring Chance The Rapper, #11 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #12 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",45,,"Eli Lifland","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T18:32:12.714Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Holy"" by Justin Bieber Featuring Chance The Rapper, #11 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #12 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",48,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-11T23:45:17.165Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Holy"" by Justin Bieber Featuring Chance The Rapper, #11 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #12 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",40,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-11T23:44:30.254Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""For The Night"" by Pop Smoke Featuring Lil Baby & DaBaby, #12 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #13 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",40,,"William Keen","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T01:38:02.231Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""For The Night"" by Pop Smoke Featuring Lil Baby & DaBaby, #12 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #13 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",55,,"Eli Lifland","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T18:32:32.497Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""For The Night"" by Pop Smoke Featuring Lil Baby & DaBaby, #12 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #13 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",47,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-11T23:45:18.693Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""For The Night"" by Pop Smoke Featuring Lil Baby & DaBaby, #12 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #13 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",38,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-11T23:44:32.692Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Before You Go"" by Lewis Capaldi, #14 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #15 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",37,,"William Keen","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T01:34:59.916Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Before You Go"" by Lewis Capaldi, #14 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #15 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",45,,"Eli Lifland","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T18:32:57.906Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Before You Go"" by Lewis Capaldi, #14 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #15 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",45,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-11T23:45:29.459Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Before You Go"" by Lewis Capaldi, #14 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #15 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",34,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-11T23:44:35.807Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Go Crazy"" by Chris Brown & Young Thug, #15 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #16 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",30,,"William Keen","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T01:24:01.379Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Go Crazy"" by Chris Brown & Young Thug, #15 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #16 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",50,,"Eli Lifland","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T18:33:04.098Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Go Crazy"" by Chris Brown & Young Thug, #15 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #16 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",44,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-11T23:45:32.364Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Go Crazy"" by Chris Brown & Young Thug, #15 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #16 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",32,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-11T23:44:37.007Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Dynamite"" by BTS, #16 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #17 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",45,,"William Keen","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T01:23:47.201Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Dynamite"" by BTS, #16 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #17 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",37,,"Eli Lifland","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T18:33:16.296Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Dynamite"" by BTS, #16 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #17 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",42,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-11T23:45:33.662Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Watermelon Sugar"" by Harry Styles, #17 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #18 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",25,,"William Keen","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T01:23:26.610Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Watermelon Sugar"" by Harry Styles, #17 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #18 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",38,,"Eli Lifland","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T18:33:23.253Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Watermelon Sugar"" by Harry Styles, #17 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #18 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",40,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-11T23:45:34.410Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Forever After All"" by Luke Combs, #18 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #19 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",40,,"William Keen","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T01:23:04.927Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Forever After All"" by Luke Combs, #18 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #19 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",25,,"Eli Lifland","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T18:33:30.839Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Forever After All"" by Luke Combs, #18 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #19 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",38,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-11T23:45:36.101Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Kings & Queens"" by Ava Max, #19 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #20 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",45,,"William Keen","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T01:22:42.689Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Kings & Queens"" by Ava Max, #19 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #20 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",53,,"Eli Lifland","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T18:34:10.330Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Kings & Queens"" by Ava Max, #19 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #20 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",36,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-11T23:45:37.344Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Said Sum"" by Moneybagg Yo, #20 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #21 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",30,,"William Keen","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T01:22:32.202Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Said Sum"" by Moneybagg Yo, #20 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #21 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",37,,"Eli Lifland","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T18:34:26.114Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Said Sum"" by Moneybagg Yo, #20 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #21 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",34,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-11T23:45:39.081Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Rockstar"" by DaBaby Featuring Roddy Ricch, #13 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #14 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",35,,"William Keen","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T01:21:53.285Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Rockstar"" by DaBaby Featuring Roddy Ricch, #13 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #14 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",40,,"Eli Lifland","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T18:32:52.896Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Rockstar"" by DaBaby Featuring Roddy Ricch, #13 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #14 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",46,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-11T23:45:26.211Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Rockstar"" by DaBaby Featuring Roddy Ricch, #13 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #14 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",36,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-11T23:44:34.309Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Lemonade"" by Internet Money & Gunna Featuring Don Toliver & NAV, #7 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #8 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",45,,"William Keen","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T01:20:53.932Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Lemonade"" by Internet Money & Gunna Featuring Don Toliver & NAV, #7 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #8 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",55,,"Eli Lifland","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T18:31:31.573Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Lemonade"" by Internet Money & Gunna Featuring Don Toliver & NAV, #7 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #8 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",52,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-11T23:45:09.413Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Lemonade"" by Internet Money & Gunna Featuring Don Toliver & NAV, #7 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #8 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",48,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-11T23:44:24.573Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Savage Love (Laxed - Siren Beat)"" by Jawsh 685 x Jason Derulo, #6 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #7 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",45,,"William Keen","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T01:20:34.460Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Savage Love (Laxed - Siren Beat)"" by Jawsh 685 x Jason Derulo, #6 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #7 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",55,,"Eli Lifland","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T18:31:17.444Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Savage Love (Laxed - Siren Beat)"" by Jawsh 685 x Jason Derulo, #6 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #7 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",53,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-11T23:45:05.497Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Savage Love (Laxed - Siren Beat)"" by Jawsh 685 x Jason Derulo, #6 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #7 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",50,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-11T23:44:22.322Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Blinding Lights"" by The Weeknd, #4 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #5 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",45,,"William Keen","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T01:10:58.643Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Blinding Lights"" by The Weeknd, #4 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #5 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",60,,"Eli Lifland","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T18:30:15.838Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Blinding Lights"" by The Weeknd, #4 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #5 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",55,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-11T23:45:02.682Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Blinding Lights"" by The Weeknd, #4 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #5 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",54,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-11T23:44:19.441Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"IEA: US to become net oil exporter by 2030",70,,"Qiaochu","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-28T05:15:13.000Z","2012-11-12T22:01:04.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"IEA: US to become net oil exporter by 2030",41,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-12T22:01:04.000Z","2012-11-12T22:01:04.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"IEA: US to become net oil exporter by 2030",55,,"Jayson Virissimo","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-13T10:12:44.000Z","2012-11-12T22:01:04.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next ten years, self-identified anarchists will out number self-identified Greens in the US. ",60,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-29T04:37:27.000Z","2012-10-29T04:37:27.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next ten years, self-identified anarchists will out number self-identified Greens in the US. ",45,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T14:05:24.000Z","2012-10-29T04:37:27.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the next ten years, self-identified anarchists will out number self-identified Greens in the US. ",45,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-15T17:15:39.000Z","2012-10-29T04:37:27.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"People will use Wine (the windows non-emulator) on Windows to play older games within 20 years",100,,"onli","qznc","Many older games don't run under Windows anymore, but just fine with Wine. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-23T09:57:41.449Z","2020-04-20T16:56:12.493Z","2040-04-20T11:00:00.000Z"
"People will use Wine (the windows non-emulator) on Windows to play older games within 20 years",80,,"generalbaguette","qznc","To prove a point, I can run Wine on Windows today.  You need to operationalise your prediction some more to show that you think it's a mainstream thing to do.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-20T18:16:31.121Z","2020-04-20T16:56:12.493Z","2040-04-20T11:00:00.000Z"
"People will use Wine (the windows non-emulator) on Windows to play older games within 20 years",60,,"qznc","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-20T16:56:12.496Z","2020-04-20T16:56:12.493Z","2040-04-20T11:00:00.000Z"
"Within twelve years (2024), silicon transistor technology will run into fundamental physical constraints, and the normal progress of Moore's law will break down.  However, exponential growth of processors in general will resume within three years.",54,,"themusicgod1","Aticper",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:58:45.000Z","2012-10-24T06:08:00.000Z","2027-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within twelve years (2024), silicon transistor technology will run into fundamental physical constraints, and the normal progress of Moore's law will break down.  However, exponential growth of processors in general will resume within three years.",70,,"Aticper","Aticper",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-24T06:08:00.000Z","2012-10-24T06:08:00.000Z","2027-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within twelve years (2024), silicon transistor technology will run into fundamental physical constraints, and the normal progress of Moore's law will break down.  However, exponential growth of processors in general will resume within three years.",38,,"JoshuaZ","Aticper","Sort of not implausible but has elements of conjunctionitis. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-14T04:52:15.000Z","2012-10-24T06:08:00.000Z","2027-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within three years (2015), a AAA level gaming title (with professional voice acting, at least Xbox 360 level graphics, and a multimillion dollar budget) will be released for a mobile (smart phone) platform.",75,,"RandomThinker","Aticper","They're pretty good now... aren't they already AAA level? ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-24T09:55:04.000Z","2012-10-24T06:05:52.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within three years (2015), a AAA level gaming title (with professional voice acting, at least Xbox 360 level graphics, and a multimillion dollar budget) will be released for a mobile (smart phone) platform.",85,,"Aticper","Aticper",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-24T06:05:52.000Z","2012-10-24T06:05:52.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within three years (2015), a AAA level gaming title (with professional voice acting, at least Xbox 360 level graphics, and a multimillion dollar budget) will be released for a mobile (smart phone) platform.",54,,"themusicgod1","Aticper",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:58:01.000Z","2012-10-24T06:05:52.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Biden to be diagnosed with dementia sometime by 2030",55,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-05T02:07:58.200Z","2020-06-02T23:56:49.884Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Biden to be diagnosed with dementia sometime by 2030",70,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-02T23:56:49.890Z","2020-06-02T23:56:49.884Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Biden to be diagnosed with dementia sometime by 2030",18,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-04T18:09:38.625Z","2020-06-02T23:56:49.884Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Biden to be diagnosed with dementia sometime by 2030",53,,"JohnGreer","InquilineKea","His staff are probably reticent to report it even if they see signs like Reagan's son saw with Reagan. He also has a good chance of dying before being diagnosed.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-03T02:27:43.220Z","2020-06-02T23:56:49.884Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2024, high frequency trading will be significantly reduced in the US (either by regulation or by diminishing profits) ",50,,"Qiaochu","RandomThinker","How significantly is significantly? As measured by number of trades or by total dollar amount traded? ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-21T00:00:35.000Z","2012-10-20T07:22:54.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2024, high frequency trading will be significantly reduced in the US (either by regulation or by diminishing profits) ",63,,"themusicgod1","RandomThinker","Ripple Labs already serves 15/top 50 banks.  Once they hit 100% HFT is next.  2024 is right timeline for their wiping out HFT.  Writing on wall",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:52:16.000Z","2012-10-20T07:22:54.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2024, high frequency trading will be significantly reduced in the US (either by regulation or by diminishing profits) ",65,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-20T07:22:54.000Z","2012-10-20T07:22:54.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US will have one of the hottest 3 summers in Summer 2020",60,,"Helios","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-14T06:17:38.332Z","2020-06-05T09:47:13.018Z","2020-10-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US will have one of the hottest 3 summers in Summer 2020",70,,"NickN","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-15T23:53:04.964Z","2020-06-05T09:47:13.018Z","2020-10-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US will have one of the hottest 3 summers in Summer 2020",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-05T09:47:13.026Z","2020-06-05T09:47:13.018Z","2020-10-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within a generation, the ""Aquatic Ape Theory"" will become a significant minority opinion within anthropology. ",20,,"Qiaochu","NathanMcKnight","Estimating based on the assumption that you want a reasonably strong version of the theory. It's more plausible that a weak version could become incorporated into a more complete and detailed theory. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-29T04:40:21.000Z","2012-10-27T22:08:09.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within a generation, the ""Aquatic Ape Theory"" will become a significant minority opinion within anthropology. ",25,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-28T00:29:10.000Z","2012-10-27T22:08:09.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within a generation, the ""Aquatic Ape Theory"" will become a significant minority opinion within anthropology. ",70,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-27T22:08:09.000Z","2012-10-27T22:08:09.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX's Starship to do a flight at least 1 km up by February 20, 2021. ",70,,"azatris","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-23T12:05:27.223Z","2020-06-09T14:47:28.524Z","2021-02-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX's Starship to do a flight at least 1 km up by February 20, 2021. ",67,,"PseudonymousUser","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-09T17:17:56.013Z","2020-06-09T14:47:28.524Z","2021-02-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX's Starship to do a flight at least 1 km up by February 20, 2021. ",55,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-09T14:47:28.528Z","2020-06-09T14:47:28.524Z","2021-02-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Mood"" by 24kGoldn Featuring iann dior, #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #2 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",70,,"William Keen","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T01:03:24.017Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Mood"" by 24kGoldn Featuring iann dior, #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #2 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",75,,"Eli Lifland","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T18:29:42.877Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""Mood"" by 24kGoldn Featuring iann dior, #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #2 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",60,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-11T23:44:01.282Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"A COVID-19 vaccine will be made available to the general populace in August, 2021.",30,,"NickN","Jim_P",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T02:49:15.305Z","2020-06-11T23:45:18.423Z","2021-06-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"A COVID-19 vaccine will be made available to the general populace in August, 2021.",90,,"qznc","Jim_P",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T12:49:15.699Z","2020-06-11T23:45:18.423Z","2021-06-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"A COVID-19 vaccine will be made available to the general populace in August, 2021.",90,,"Jim_P","Jim_P",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-11T23:45:18.429Z","2020-06-11T23:45:18.423Z","2021-06-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"World GDP will have grown by at least 7.5% (roughly double the average since 1950) within one calendar year up to and including 2026.",6,,"Mathieu_Putz","Mathieu_Putz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-16T13:13:19.581Z","2020-06-15T20:15:53.263Z","2027-04-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"World GDP will have grown by at least 7.5% (roughly double the average since 1950) within one calendar year up to and including 2026.",10,,"Bruno Parga","Mathieu_Putz","Coronavirus makes this a bit more likely due to a rebound from the recession.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T13:13:10.163Z","2020-06-15T20:15:53.263Z","2027-04-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"World GDP will have grown by at least 7.5% (roughly double the average since 1950) within one calendar year up to and including 2026.",5,,"JoshuaZ","Mathieu_Putz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-16T00:30:18.866Z","2020-06-15T20:15:53.263Z","2027-04-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"World GDP will have grown by at least 7.5% (roughly double the average since 1950) within one calendar year up to and including 2026.",7,,"Mathieu_Putz","Mathieu_Putz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-15T20:15:53.270Z","2020-06-15T20:15:53.263Z","2027-04-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"The current world record for the highest exit altitude for a freefall (unofficially set on October 14, 2012: 39,045 m / 128,100 ft) will not be broken until 2020.",68,,"RandomThinker","chemotaxis101","They can always just repeat it but go slightly higher by a few feet",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-17T04:55:15.000Z","2012-10-15T19:45:50.000Z","2021-01-01T14:00:00.000Z"
"The current world record for the highest exit altitude for a freefall (unofficially set on October 14, 2012: 39,045 m / 128,100 ft) will not be broken until 2020.",85,,"chemotaxis101","chemotaxis101",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-15T19:45:50.000Z","2012-10-15T19:45:50.000Z","2021-01-01T14:00:00.000Z"
"The current world record for the highest exit altitude for a freefall (unofficially set on October 14, 2012: 39,045 m / 128,100 ft) will not be broken until 2020.",90,,"Emanuel Rylke","chemotaxis101",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-16T07:31:15.000Z","2012-10-15T19:45:50.000Z","2021-01-01T14:00:00.000Z"
"Poland will legalize gay marriage by 2030, see https://www.unz.com/akarlin/poland-will-legalize-gay-marriage-within-10-years/",90,,"azatris","akarlin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-23T11:44:19.428Z","2020-06-17T14:07:43.494Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Poland will legalize gay marriage by 2030, see https://www.unz.com/akarlin/poland-will-legalize-gay-marriage-within-10-years/",48,,"JoshuaZ","akarlin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-17T19:21:19.709Z","2020-06-17T14:07:43.494Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Poland will legalize gay marriage by 2030, see https://www.unz.com/akarlin/poland-will-legalize-gay-marriage-within-10-years/",70,,"akarlin","akarlin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-17T14:07:43.500Z","2020-06-17T14:07:43.494Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"This year 2020 will be warmest on record (duplicating PredictIt bet from this Jan, odds there now at 50%)",50,,"NickN","akarlin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-17T12:21:39.693Z","2020-06-17T14:17:49.489Z","2021-01-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"This year 2020 will be warmest on record (duplicating PredictIt bet from this Jan, odds there now at 50%)",60,,"akarlin","akarlin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-17T14:17:49.493Z","2020-06-17T14:17:49.489Z","2021-01-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"This year 2020 will be warmest on record (duplicating PredictIt bet from this Jan, odds there now at 50%)",65,,"JoshuaZ","akarlin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-17T19:21:57.409Z","2020-06-17T14:17:49.489Z","2021-01-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Boston will have its warmest July ever in 2020",15,,"NickN","InquilineKea","Didn't find Info on Boston, or would have judged.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-19T02:11:55.693Z","2020-06-21T04:15:54.424Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Boston will have its warmest July ever in 2020",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-21T04:15:54.430Z","2020-06-21T04:15:54.424Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Boston will have its warmest July ever in 2020",50,,"srconstantin","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-30T19:17:07.202Z","2020-06-21T04:15:54.424Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"D-Wave will be bankrupt, bought, or defunct in 10 years",59,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:43:30.000Z","2012-10-06T18:18:46.000Z","2022-10-06T18:18:46.000Z"
"D-Wave will be bankrupt, bought, or defunct in 10 years",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-06T18:18:46.000Z","2012-10-06T18:18:46.000Z","2022-10-06T18:18:46.000Z"
"D-Wave will be bankrupt, bought, or defunct in 10 years",46,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-08T23:27:55.728Z","2012-10-06T18:18:46.000Z","2022-10-06T18:18:46.000Z"
"If we keep writing down common sense datums until 2100, we can make computers as smart as people. -- Robin Hanson",10,,"chemotaxis101","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-13T17:36:11.000Z","2012-10-01T16:42:56.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"If we keep writing down common sense datums until 2100, we can make computers as smart as people. -- Robin Hanson",50,,"themusicgod1","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:38:12.000Z","2012-10-01T16:42:56.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"If we keep writing down common sense datums until 2100, we can make computers as smart as people. -- Robin Hanson",20,,"Pablo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T16:42:56.000Z","2012-10-01T16:42:56.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Linux most widely used operating system for personal desktop and laptop computers in the world by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",2,,"chemotaxis101","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-13T17:46:17.000Z","2012-10-01T13:45:39.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Linux most widely used operating system for personal desktop and laptop computers in the world by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",1,,"bobpage","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-02T06:19:55.000Z","2012-10-01T13:45:39.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Linux most widely used operating system for personal desktop and laptop computers in the world by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",5,,"Pablo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T13:45:40.000Z","2012-10-01T13:45:39.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2040 the US remains the world's strongest economic power, as measured by GDP. -- Axel Boldt",36,,"themusicgod1","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:27:40.000Z","2012-10-01T06:47:34.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2040 the US remains the world's strongest economic power, as measured by GDP. -- Axel Boldt",21,,"RandomThinker","Pablo","Updating in light of change to remove reference to military.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-29T01:09:50.000Z","2012-10-01T06:47:34.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2040 the US remains the world's strongest economic power, as measured by GDP. -- Axel Boldt",60,,"RandomThinker","Pablo","I'd bet against Economist on that any day.  China's probably still 15 yrs away on economy (China @ $7t GDP v. US $15t).  And 40 yrs away on military.  That's assuming things go well.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T07:18:07.000Z","2012-10-01T06:47:34.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2040 the US remains the world's strongest economic power, as measured by GDP. -- Axel Boldt",10,,"Pablo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T06:47:34.000Z","2012-10-01T06:47:34.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2040 the US remains the world's strongest economic power, as measured by GDP. -- Axel Boldt",18,,"Pablo","Pablo","I changed the prediction to remove vague reference to military prowess.  Updating in light of this change.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-02T03:00:49.000Z","2012-10-01T06:47:34.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A minecraft-style MMO (simple sandbox game supporting > 500 players) will launch within 5 years",75,,"learnmethis","learnmethis",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-26T01:15:11.000Z","2012-09-26T01:15:11.000Z","2017-09-26T01:15:11.000Z"
"A minecraft-style MMO (simple sandbox game supporting > 500 players) will launch within 5 years",54,,"themusicgod1","learnmethis",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:15:53.000Z","2012-09-26T01:15:11.000Z","2017-09-26T01:15:11.000Z"
"A minecraft-style MMO (simple sandbox game supporting > 500 players) will launch within 5 years",75,,"Emanuel Rylke","learnmethis",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-26T16:27:24.000Z","2012-09-26T01:15:11.000Z","2017-09-26T01:15:11.000Z"
"No Honduras R.E.D. will have >$100M GDP within 10 years.",97,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-24T18:06:04.000Z","2012-09-24T18:06:04.000Z","2022-09-24T18:06:04.000Z"
"No Honduras R.E.D. will have >$100M GDP within 10 years.",54,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:11:59.000Z","2012-09-24T18:06:04.000Z","2022-09-24T18:06:04.000Z"
"No Honduras R.E.D. will have >$100M GDP within 10 years.",95,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-25T04:47:10.000Z","2012-09-24T18:06:04.000Z","2022-09-24T18:06:04.000Z"
"No Honduras R.E.D. will have >$100M GDP within 20 years.",54,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:11:50.000Z","2012-09-24T18:06:03.000Z","2032-09-24T18:06:03.000Z"
"No Honduras R.E.D. will have >$100M GDP within 20 years.",85,,"Jayson Virissimo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-30T07:03:26.000Z","2012-09-24T18:06:03.000Z","2032-09-24T18:06:03.000Z"
"No Honduras R.E.D. will have >$100M GDP within 20 years.",90,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-24T18:06:03.000Z","2012-09-24T18:06:03.000Z","2032-09-24T18:06:03.000Z"
"Will Linch get covid-19?",1.5,,"Linch","Linch","Going up somewhat because of the new strain.","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","Human Challenge Trials,covid-19,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T22:59:12.786Z","2020-11-28T22:51:43.509Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch get covid-19?",0.9,,"Linch","Linch","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","Human Challenge Trials,covid-19,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T22:51:43.514Z","2020-11-28T22:51:43.509Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch get covid-19?",0.5,,"Peter H","Linch","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","Human Challenge Trials,covid-19,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T00:17:20.030Z","2020-11-28T22:51:43.509Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch get covid-19?",3,,"Will K","Linch","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","Human Challenge Trials,covid-19,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T05:18:27.475Z","2020-11-28T22:51:43.509Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch be in a romantic relationship at any point in 2021?",20,,"Linch","Linch","time decay","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","relationships,Personal,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T22:59:45.764Z","2020-11-28T22:54:47.429Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch be in a romantic relationship at any point in 2021?",22,,"Linch","Linch","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","relationships,Personal,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T22:54:47.434Z","2020-11-28T22:54:47.429Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch be in a romantic relationship at any point in 2021?",35,,"Peter H","Linch","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","relationships,Personal,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T00:17:30.183Z","2020-11-28T22:54:47.429Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch be in a romantic relationship at any point in 2021?",24,,"Will K","Linch","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","relationships,Personal,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T05:15:52.327Z","2020-11-28T22:54:47.429Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"I will not smoke a (tobacco containing) cigarette for the next 25 years.",80,,"pranomostro","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-09T00:30:48.664Z","2012-09-07T08:51:25.000Z","2037-09-07T08:51:25.000Z"
"I will not smoke a (tobacco containing) cigarette for the next 25 years.",95,,"pranomostro","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-09T00:00:24.087Z","2012-09-07T08:51:25.000Z","2037-09-07T08:51:25.000Z"
"I will not smoke a (tobacco containing) cigarette for the next 25 years.",95,,"gwern","Jayson Virissimo","this reminds me to make my own predictions per my nicotine gum/patch use: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/8179 & http://predictionbook.com/predictions/8180",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-07T18:41:37.000Z","2012-09-07T08:51:25.000Z","2037-09-07T08:51:25.000Z"
"I will not smoke a (tobacco containing) cigarette for the next 25 years.",99,,"Jayson Virissimo","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-07T08:51:25.000Z","2012-09-07T08:51:25.000Z","2037-09-07T08:51:25.000Z"
"Will Linch be in a romantic relationship on December 31, 2021?",10,,"Linch","Linch","time decay","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","relationships,Personal,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T22:59:54.213Z","2020-11-28T22:53:49.676Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch be in a romantic relationship on December 31, 2021?",11,,"Linch","Linch","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","relationships,Personal,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T22:53:49.682Z","2020-11-28T22:53:49.676Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch be in a romantic relationship on December 31, 2021?",10,,"Peter H","Linch","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","relationships,Personal,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T00:17:23.466Z","2020-11-28T22:53:49.676Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch be in a romantic relationship on December 31, 2021?",15,,"Will K","Linch","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","relationships,Personal,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T05:15:15.526Z","2020-11-28T22:53:49.676Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Congress will formally disestablish the reservations described in McGirt v. Oklahoma by the end of 2021",40,,"ayegill","Deepak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-16T14:21:18.259Z","2020-07-09T21:23:01.195Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Congress will formally disestablish the reservations described in McGirt v. Oklahoma by the end of 2021",34,,"JoshuaZ","Deepak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-09T23:22:52.339Z","2020-07-09T21:23:01.195Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Congress will formally disestablish the reservations described in McGirt v. Oklahoma by the end of 2021",70,,"Deepak","Deepak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-09T21:23:01.206Z","2020-07-09T21:23:01.195Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch move to a country other than the US?",6.8,,"Linch","Linch","time decay","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","immigration,US,US political instability,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T23:00:19.371Z","2020-11-28T22:50:51.760Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch move to a country other than the US?",7,,"Linch","Linch","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","immigration,US,US political instability,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T22:50:51.766Z","2020-11-28T22:50:51.760Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch move to a country other than the US?",5,,"Peter H","Linch","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","immigration,US,US political instability,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T00:17:18.733Z","2020-11-28T22:50:51.760Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch move to a country other than the US?",7,,"Will K","Linch","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","immigration,US,US political instability,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T05:25:54.147Z","2020-11-28T22:50:51.760Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch be working for Rethink Priorities on December 31, 2021?",43,,"Linch","Linch","time decay","Defined as being paid to work by RP for at least 20 hours/week in December 2021. 

Note that the resolution time should be 31 Dec 2021 but I'm unable to edit it.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","Rethink Priorities,Linch,Longtermism,Personal,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T23:00:36.802Z","2020-11-28T22:37:55.346Z","2021-11-28T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch be working for Rethink Priorities on December 31, 2021?",42,,"Linch","Linch","","Defined as being paid to work by RP for at least 20 hours/week in December 2021. 

Note that the resolution time should be 31 Dec 2021 but I'm unable to edit it.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","Rethink Priorities,Linch,Longtermism,Personal,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T22:37:55.352Z","2020-11-28T22:37:55.346Z","2021-11-28T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch be working for Rethink Priorities on December 31, 2021?",60,,"Peter H","Linch","","Defined as being paid to work by RP for at least 20 hours/week in December 2021. 

Note that the resolution time should be 31 Dec 2021 but I'm unable to edit it.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","Rethink Priorities,Linch,Longtermism,Personal,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T00:16:54.699Z","2020-11-28T22:37:55.346Z","2021-11-28T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch be working for Rethink Priorities on December 31, 2021?",49,,"Will K","Linch","","Defined as being paid to work by RP for at least 20 hours/week in December 2021. 

Note that the resolution time should be 31 Dec 2021 but I'm unable to edit it.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","Rethink Priorities,Linch,Longtermism,Personal,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T05:21:57.566Z","2020-11-28T22:37:55.346Z","2021-11-28T08:00:00.000Z"
"George Floyd will be Time Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.",25,,"unexpectedEOF","JohnGreer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-19T04:32:53.482Z","2020-07-25T17:44:26.492Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"George Floyd will be Time Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.",5,,"Adam Zerner","JohnGreer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-28T18:05:15.239Z","2020-07-25T17:44:26.492Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"George Floyd will be Time Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.",12,,"JohnGreer","JohnGreer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-25T17:44:26.494Z","2020-07-25T17:44:26.492Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will bitcoin ever go below 10,000 again after August 2020?",99,,"Baeboo","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T14:51:09.881Z","2020-07-27T05:59:43.417Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will bitcoin ever go below 10,000 again after August 2020?",98,,"Bruno Parga","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T13:03:05.680Z","2020-07-27T05:59:43.417Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will bitcoin ever go below 10,000 again after August 2020?",60,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-27T05:59:43.422Z","2020-07-27T05:59:43.417Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will bitcoin ever go below 10,000 again after August 2020?",96,,"Baeboo","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-28T01:35:24.636Z","2020-07-27T05:59:43.417Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch be employed full-time on December 31, 2021?",63,,"Linch","Linch","time decay","Employed” Defined as having employer-sponsored healthcare if his primary country of residency is in the US, and getting paid for 30+h/week of work in the week of December 10 otherwise.

Ambiguities resolved by Linch
","Economic,Personal,Linch,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T23:00:46.373Z","2020-11-28T22:42:17.622Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch be employed full-time on December 31, 2021?",62,,"Linch","Linch","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","Employed” Defined as having employer-sponsored healthcare if his primary country of residency is in the US, and getting paid for 30+h/week of work in the week of December 10 otherwise.

Ambiguities resolved by Linch
","Economic,Personal,Linch,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T22:42:27.406Z","2020-11-28T22:42:17.622Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch be employed full-time on December 31, 2021?",0,,"Linch","Linch","","Employed” Defined as having employer-sponsored healthcare if his primary country of residency is in the US, and getting paid for 30+h/week of work in the week of December 10 otherwise.

Ambiguities resolved by Linch
","Economic,Personal,Linch,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T22:43:01.039Z","2020-11-28T22:42:17.622Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch be employed full-time on December 31, 2021?",62,,"Linch","Linch","sorry adding notes changed the prediction to 0% last time","Employed” Defined as having employer-sponsored healthcare if his primary country of residency is in the US, and getting paid for 30+h/week of work in the week of December 10 otherwise.

Ambiguities resolved by Linch
","Economic,Personal,Linch,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T22:43:11.944Z","2020-11-28T22:42:17.622Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch be employed full-time on December 31, 2021?",80,,"Peter H","Linch","","Employed” Defined as having employer-sponsored healthcare if his primary country of residency is in the US, and getting paid for 30+h/week of work in the week of December 10 otherwise.

Ambiguities resolved by Linch
","Economic,Personal,Linch,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T00:16:55.901Z","2020-11-28T22:42:17.622Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch be employed full-time on December 31, 2021?",66,,"Will K","Linch","","Employed” Defined as having employer-sponsored healthcare if his primary country of residency is in the US, and getting paid for 30+h/week of work in the week of December 10 otherwise.

Ambiguities resolved by Linch
","Economic,Personal,Linch,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T05:22:43.901Z","2020-11-28T22:42:17.622Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch be employed full-time on December 31, 2021?",66,,"Will K","Linch","","Employed” Defined as having employer-sponsored healthcare if his primary country of residency is in the US, and getting paid for 30+h/week of work in the week of December 10 otherwise.

Ambiguities resolved by Linch
","Economic,Personal,Linch,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T05:22:46.796Z","2020-11-28T22:42:17.622Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch be top #50 or higher on Metaculus Prime on December 31, 2021?",36,,"Linch","Linch","""resolved within the last 6 months"" ranking has increased a lot since the last time I made this prediction.","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","meta-forecasting,Metaculus,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T23:02:59.453Z","2020-11-28T22:49:44.115Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch be top #50 or higher on Metaculus Prime on December 31, 2021?",32,,"Linch","Linch","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","meta-forecasting,Metaculus,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T22:49:44.121Z","2020-11-28T22:49:44.115Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch be top #50 or higher on Metaculus Prime on December 31, 2021?",30,,"Peter H","Linch","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","meta-forecasting,Metaculus,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T00:17:35.822Z","2020-11-28T22:49:44.115Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch be top #50 or higher on Metaculus Prime on December 31, 2021?",32,,"Will K","Linch","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","meta-forecasting,Metaculus,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T05:25:20.463Z","2020-11-28T22:49:44.115Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"< 2M coronavirus deaths",51,,"kjaques","kjaques",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-31T17:05:13.739Z","2020-07-31T17:05:13.733Z","2021-07-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"< 2M coronavirus deaths",50,,"Bruno Parga","kjaques",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T13:01:05.804Z","2020-07-31T17:05:13.733Z","2021-07-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"< 2M coronavirus deaths",30,,"sam_jaques","kjaques",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-01T08:38:04.501Z","2020-07-31T17:05:13.733Z","2021-07-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"India and China's border dispute escalates to a battle fought more than 100 km from the border",1,,"Bruno Parga","sam_jaques","One nuclear state invading another? I find that difficult.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T12:59:34.258Z","2020-08-03T08:54:59.116Z","2021-08-03T12:00:00.000Z"
"India and China's border dispute escalates to a battle fought more than 100 km from the border",10,,"NickN","sam_jaques",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-18T12:42:56.506Z","2020-08-03T08:54:59.116Z","2021-08-03T12:00:00.000Z"
"India and China's border dispute escalates to a battle fought more than 100 km from the border",15,,"sam_jaques","sam_jaques",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-03T08:54:59.121Z","2020-08-03T08:54:59.116Z","2021-08-03T12:00:00.000Z"
"All the officers charged in the George Floyd case will be exonerated or there will be a hung jury.",70,,"unseen","unseen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-05T01:51:21.909Z","2020-08-05T01:51:21.905Z","2022-08-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"All the officers charged in the George Floyd case will be exonerated or there will be a hung jury.",70,,"arrowinthedark","unseen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-12T02:22:50.477Z","2020-08-05T01:51:21.905Z","2022-08-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"All the officers charged in the George Floyd case will be exonerated or there will be a hung jury.",30,,"Adam Zerner","unseen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-11T20:31:36.126Z","2020-08-05T01:51:21.905Z","2022-08-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"The UK administers at least 10 million coronavirus vaccines by the end of the year",75,,"sam_jaques","sam_jaques",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-12T20:28:18.893Z","2020-08-12T20:28:18.888Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The UK administers at least 10 million coronavirus vaccines by the end of the year",1,,"Bruno Parga","sam_jaques",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T12:58:37.815Z","2020-08-12T20:28:18.888Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The UK administers at least 10 million coronavirus vaccines by the end of the year",5,,"NickN","sam_jaques",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-15T23:36:52.874Z","2020-08-12T20:28:18.888Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"firefox will add back built-in support for RSS feeds by 2025",11,,"finback","finback",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-14T14:49:20.151Z","2020-08-14T14:49:20.146Z","2025-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"firefox will add back built-in support for RSS feeds by 2025",2,,"two2thehead","finback","I want to believe",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-15T08:19:05.249Z","2020-08-14T14:49:20.146Z","2025-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"firefox will add back built-in support for RSS feeds by 2025",2,,"platypus42","finback","Firefox has been moving in the direction of removing ""superuser"" niche features and including more avg user products like Pocket, don't see that trend changing unfortunately. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-15T08:01:52.095Z","2020-08-14T14:49:20.146Z","2025-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"Climate Change - August 2020 will be the 428th-consecutive month with temperatures above the 20th-century average, according to NOAA",80,,"aquilax","NickN",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-17T14:59:32.501Z","2020-08-17T12:13:44.650Z","2020-09-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"Climate Change - August 2020 will be the 428th-consecutive month with temperatures above the 20th-century average, according to NOAA",90,,"NickN","NickN",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-17T12:13:44.655Z","2020-08-17T12:13:44.650Z","2020-09-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"Climate Change - August 2020 will be the 428th-consecutive month with temperatures above the 20th-century average, according to NOAA",85,,"JoshuaZ","NickN",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-17T19:14:22.767Z","2020-08-17T12:13:44.650Z","2020-09-01T22:00:00.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: the fourth wall will be broken by what is recognizably Anno",46,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T12:42:51.000Z","2012-08-29T19:30:43.000Z","2018-01-01T20:16:42.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: the fourth wall will be broken by what is recognizably Anno",20,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-29T19:30:43.000Z","2012-08-29T19:30:43.000Z","2018-01-01T20:16:42.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: the fourth wall will be broken by what is recognizably Anno",33,,"William-Quixote","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-08T17:36:34.000Z","2012-08-29T19:30:43.000Z","2018-01-01T20:16:42.000Z"
"Within the next ten years, Kepler 36b & Kepler 36c will be theorized in a peer-reviewed publication to be a case of planetary enucleation--b being the dense former core of c.",46,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T12:38:31.000Z","2012-08-21T23:36:16.000Z","2022-08-21T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within the next ten years, Kepler 36b & Kepler 36c will be theorized in a peer-reviewed publication to be a case of planetary enucleation--b being the dense former core of c.",1,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-05T00:11:44.000Z","2012-08-21T23:36:16.000Z","2022-08-21T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within the next ten years, Kepler 36b & Kepler 36c will be theorized in a peer-reviewed publication to be a case of planetary enucleation--b being the dense former core of c.",12,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-22T00:58:55.000Z","2012-08-21T23:36:16.000Z","2022-08-21T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within the next ten years, Kepler 36b & Kepler 36c will be theorized in a peer-reviewed publication to be a case of planetary enucleation--b being the dense former core of c.",40,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-21T23:36:16.000Z","2012-08-21T23:36:16.000Z","2022-08-21T12:00:00.000Z"
"A COVID-19 vaccine will be generally available in the UK by March 2021",15,,"chemotaxis101","mpstevensuk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T20:21:45.421Z","2020-09-01T13:06:37.813Z","2021-03-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"A COVID-19 vaccine will be generally available in the UK by March 2021",8,,"Bruno Parga","mpstevensuk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T12:48:58.020Z","2020-09-01T13:06:37.813Z","2021-03-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"A COVID-19 vaccine will be generally available in the UK by March 2021",66,,"mpstevensuk","mpstevensuk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-01T13:06:37.818Z","2020-09-01T13:06:37.813Z","2021-03-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"twitter will not have the ability to view ""latest tweets"" (chronological timeline) from the web app on june 1 2022",5,,"FrancinePefko","finback",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-21T16:05:20.364Z","2020-09-09T15:23:30.315Z","2022-06-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"twitter will not have the ability to view ""latest tweets"" (chronological timeline) from the web app on june 1 2022",80,,"Liging","finback",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-18T04:40:43.972Z","2020-09-09T15:23:30.315Z","2022-06-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"twitter will not have the ability to view ""latest tweets"" (chronological timeline) from the web app on june 1 2022",57,,"finback","finback",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-09T15:23:30.320Z","2020-09-09T15:23:30.315Z","2022-06-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"How/""why"" (if applicable) our universe was created will be discovered through science. The answer will not be magical, but fundamentally understandable in nature.",47,,"themusicgod1","asdadfa",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T06:09:30.000Z","2012-08-12T06:53:17.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"How/""why"" (if applicable) our universe was created will be discovered through science. The answer will not be magical, but fundamentally understandable in nature.",99,,"kilobug","asdadfa","But ""created"" is probably not the word I would have used ;)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-23T16:10:11.000Z","2012-08-12T06:53:17.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"How/""why"" (if applicable) our universe was created will be discovered through science. The answer will not be magical, but fundamentally understandable in nature.",95,,"asdadfa","asdadfa",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-12T06:53:17.000Z","2012-08-12T06:53:17.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There'll be a hollywood movie featuring mesh worm robot adversaries by end of 2017",45,,"themusicgod1","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-10T14:39:31.000Z","2012-08-11T21:03:26.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"There'll be a hollywood movie featuring mesh worm robot adversaries by end of 2017",10,,"torekp","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-12T22:55:05.000Z","2012-08-11T21:03:26.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"There'll be a hollywood movie featuring mesh worm robot adversaries by end of 2017",35,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-11T21:03:26.000Z","2012-08-11T21:03:26.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"There'll be a big summer shark scare story within the next 4 years",13,,"themusicgod1","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T06:08:57.000Z","2012-08-06T20:07:50.000Z","2016-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"There'll be a big summer shark scare story within the next 4 years",95,,"Jeff","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-08T16:50:49.000Z","2012-08-06T20:07:50.000Z","2016-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"There'll be a big summer shark scare story within the next 4 years",65,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-06T20:07:50.000Z","2012-08-06T20:07:50.000Z","2016-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Unmanned aerial mapping will revolutionize archaeology (as evidenced by number of published papers) within the next 20 years.",53,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T06:06:22.000Z","2012-08-01T23:35:01.000Z","2033-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Unmanned aerial mapping will revolutionize archaeology (as evidenced by number of published papers) within the next 20 years.",75,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-15T17:16:46.000Z","2012-08-01T23:35:01.000Z","2033-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Unmanned aerial mapping will revolutionize archaeology (as evidenced by number of published papers) within the next 20 years.",80,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-01T23:35:01.000Z","2012-08-01T23:35:01.000Z","2033-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The average lifespan for people living in current OECD countries in 2060 will be equal to or greater than 100 years.",55,,"JoshuaZ","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-23T00:02:53.000Z","2012-08-22T12:02:19.000Z","2061-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"The average lifespan for people living in current OECD countries in 2060 will be equal to or greater than 100 years.",25,,"RandomThinker","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-22T23:35:26.000Z","2012-08-22T12:02:19.000Z","2061-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"The average lifespan for people living in current OECD countries in 2060 will be equal to or greater than 100 years.",35,,"Jayson Virissimo","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-22T12:02:19.000Z","2012-08-22T12:02:19.000Z","2061-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"Ben: In 2022, in the US, >50% of the top 5% of citizens by income who use computers will not be using a mouse / keyboard. ",63,,"themusicgod1","Porejide","Computers definitely include ipads.  ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T01:55:30.000Z","2012-07-09T02:59:08.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ben: In 2022, in the US, >50% of the top 5% of citizens by income who use computers will not be using a mouse / keyboard. ",65,,"bencasnocha","Porejide","I'd say will not PRIMARILY be using a mouse / keyboard. I think those two technologies will still exist in 10 years.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-07-09T03:21:56.000Z","2012-07-09T02:59:08.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ben: In 2022, in the US, >50% of the top 5% of citizens by income who use computers will not be using a mouse / keyboard. ",40,,"Porejide","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-07-09T02:59:08.000Z","2012-07-09T02:59:08.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"1-bed rent in Manhattan is at least 1% lower than it was in March 2019",90,,"Stephen","pdf","Couldn't find good data on it, but new york city seems to have seen roughly a 1% reduction already? https://www.rentjungle.com/average-rent-in-new-york-rent-trends/ . Likely to at least hold in my mind.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-05T16:39:20.017Z","2020-10-05T16:17:09.576Z","2021-03-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"1-bed rent in Manhattan is at least 1% lower than it was in March 2019",80,,"pdf","pdf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-05T16:17:09.581Z","2020-10-05T16:17:09.576Z","2021-03-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"1-bed rent in Manhattan is at least 1% lower than it was in March 2019",80,,"srconstantin","pdf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-28T14:06:33.011Z","2020-10-05T16:17:09.576Z","2021-03-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Spacex's SN8 will sucessfully complete its first flight and tests and come to a safe landing.",60,,"Reactionaryhistorian","Reactionaryhistorian",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-10T02:51:53.263Z","2020-10-10T02:51:53.257Z","2020-11-30T23:00:00.000Z"
"Spacex's SN8 will sucessfully complete its first flight and tests and come to a safe landing.",65,,"chemotaxis101","Reactionaryhistorian",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-26T18:21:13.371Z","2020-10-10T02:51:53.257Z","2020-11-30T23:00:00.000Z"
"Spacex's SN8 will sucessfully complete its first flight and tests and come to a safe landing.",55,,"JoshuaZ","Reactionaryhistorian",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-10T17:47:53.357Z","2020-10-10T02:51:53.257Z","2020-11-30T23:00:00.000Z"
"The Sun will rise on 1 January 2021",100,,"gav","sjy","Assuming ""will rise"" is the typical understood shorthand for ""the earth continues spinning as normal, causing the sun to appear to rise over the horizon at most lattitudes"", etc. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T02:32:45.122Z","2020-11-02T21:48:27.523Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Sun will rise on 1 January 2021",100,,"sjy","sjy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T21:48:27.528Z","2020-11-02T21:48:27.523Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Sun will rise on 1 January 2021",100,,"Baeboo","sjy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T03:59:35.471Z","2020-11-02T21:48:27.523Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will be using Firefox in 10 years",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T01:01:22.000Z","2012-06-28T23:57:45.000Z","2022-06-28T23:57:45.000Z"
"I will be using Firefox in 10 years",40,,"chemotaxis101","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-07-01T15:29:36.000Z","2012-06-28T23:57:45.000Z","2022-06-28T23:57:45.000Z"
"I will be using Firefox in 10 years",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-06-28T23:57:45.000Z","2012-06-28T23:57:45.000Z","2022-06-28T23:57:45.000Z"
"Joe Biden wins the 2024 presidential election",5,,"true","PlacidPlatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T10:47:34.250Z","2020-11-13T04:46:42.791Z","2024-11-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden wins the 2024 presidential election",23,,"Baeboo","PlacidPlatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T19:17:20.900Z","2020-11-13T04:46:42.791Z","2024-11-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden wins the 2024 presidential election",30,,"PlacidPlatypus","PlacidPlatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T04:46:42.795Z","2020-11-13T04:46:42.791Z","2024-11-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"A vaccine will be out and at least 50M people will be vaccinated by COVID’s second birthday party (November 17th 2021)",80,,"Liging","Liging",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-15T18:33:33.693Z","2020-11-15T18:33:33.688Z","2021-11-17T12:00:00.000Z"
"A vaccine will be out and at least 50M people will be vaccinated by COVID’s second birthday party (November 17th 2021)",97,,"Baeboo","Liging",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-16T22:50:12.877Z","2020-11-15T18:33:33.688Z","2021-11-17T12:00:00.000Z"
"A vaccine will be out and at least 50M people will be vaccinated by COVID’s second birthday party (November 17th 2021)",97,,"bobpage","Liging",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-16T00:12:02.577Z","2020-11-15T18:33:33.688Z","2021-11-17T12:00:00.000Z"
"A vaccine will be out and at least 50M people will be vaccinated by COVID’s second birthday party (November 17th 2021)",95,,"Baeboo","Liging",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-15T21:49:06.365Z","2020-11-15T18:33:33.688Z","2021-11-17T12:00:00.000Z"
"Homestuck: Gamzee didn't go god-tier at all.
He just made the outfit/acquired it from one of his alternate timeline selves.",60,,"disinter","1337_w0n",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-17T19:55:28.000Z","2012-04-17T19:53:45.000Z","2015-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Homestuck: Gamzee didn't go god-tier at all.
He just made the outfit/acquired it from one of his alternate timeline selves.",87,,"1337_w0n","1337_w0n",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-17T19:53:45.000Z","2012-04-17T19:53:45.000Z","2015-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Homestuck: Gamzee didn't go god-tier at all.
He just made the outfit/acquired it from one of his alternate timeline selves.",100,,"1337_w0n","1337_w0n","At this point, there is no way he's god-tier.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-21T09:48:45.000Z","2012-04-17T19:53:45.000Z","2015-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Homestuck: Gamzee didn't go god-tier at all.
He just made the outfit/acquired it from one of his alternate timeline selves.",30,,"papermachine","1337_w0n","He's had Aradia's music box for an undetermined amount of time; he could have feasibly got tiger before both scratches. Essentially all bets are off. Not literally of course.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-19T03:05:48.000Z","2012-04-17T19:53:45.000Z","2015-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Obama will win the election (2012), and the GOP will become a party of lesser influence until 2024, when an independent and Republican will for a short time storm the country.",5,,"RandomThinker","Turtleread","Too many conditions, you should break it up into separate predictions",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-08T03:19:14.000Z","2012-04-07T02:07:43.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Obama will win the election (2012), and the GOP will become a party of lesser influence until 2024, when an independent and Republican will for a short time storm the country.",92,,"Turtleread","Turtleread",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-07T02:07:43.000Z","2012-04-07T02:07:43.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Obama will win the election (2012), and the GOP will become a party of lesser influence until 2024, when an independent and Republican will for a short time storm the country.",5,,"bsm","Turtleread","Burdensome details.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-03T14:42:17.000Z","2012-04-07T02:07:43.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A stronger stimulant than caffeine will be widely legally available in the UK by 2022, and be used and sold in a similar way",47,,"themusicgod1","Michael Stevens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T00:35:21.000Z","2012-04-06T22:17:00.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A stronger stimulant than caffeine will be widely legally available in the UK by 2022, and be used and sold in a similar way",40,,"Ben Doherty","Michael Stevens","It's a pretty short time span, give it another 10 years and something might get past the boards",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-08T09:07:22.000Z","2012-04-06T22:17:00.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A stronger stimulant than caffeine will be widely legally available in the UK by 2022, and be used and sold in a similar way",30,,"Michael Stevens","Michael Stevens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-06T22:17:00.000Z","2012-04-06T22:17:00.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"_HP MoR_: ch45: The hint is about what is the important task McGonagall was called away from",5,,"LauralH","gwern","she was watching the Stone",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-11T00:54:28.000Z","2012-04-04T23:52:52.000Z","2015-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"_HP MoR_: ch45: The hint is about what is the important task McGonagall was called away from",35,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-04T23:52:52.000Z","2012-04-04T23:52:52.000Z","2015-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"_HP MoR_: ch45: The hint is about what is the important task McGonagall was called away from",20,,"Oscar_Cunningham","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-20T12:18:48.000Z","2012-04-04T23:52:52.000Z","2015-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"_HP MoR_: ch45: The hint is about why Harry can't hear Dementors",22,,"Oscar_Cunningham","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-20T12:17:56.000Z","2012-04-04T23:52:26.000Z","2016-01-01T16:19:48.000Z"
"_HP MoR_: ch45: The hint is about why Harry can't hear Dementors",5,,"LauralH","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-11T00:54:00.000Z","2012-04-04T23:52:26.000Z","2016-01-01T16:19:48.000Z"
"_HP MoR_: ch45: The hint is about why Harry can't hear Dementors",40,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-04T23:52:26.000Z","2012-04-04T23:52:26.000Z","2016-01-01T16:19:48.000Z"
"A company with its main activity being cultured meat and/or dairy products will be valued at >= 1bn 2020USD by January 1st, 2030.",75,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy","Prediction details at https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GkNjoGSruEayeAp87/predictions-made-by-mati-roy-in-early-2021",,"cellular-agriculture","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-23T00:00:00.000Z","2020-02-23T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"A company with its main activity being cultured meat and/or dairy products will be valued at >= 1bn 2020USD by January 1st, 2030.",65,,"Benjamin Rachbach","Mati Roy",,,"cellular-agriculture","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-05T04:53:42.909Z","2020-02-23T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"A company with its main activity being cultured meat and/or dairy products will be valued at >= 1bn 2020USD by January 1st, 2030.",60,,"Benjamin Rachbach","Mati Roy",,,"cellular-agriculture","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-05T04:54:00.231Z","2020-02-23T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"A company with its main activity being cultured meat and/or dairy products will be valued at >= 1bn 2020USD by January 1st, 2030.",85,,"Styrke","Mati Roy",,,"cellular-agriculture","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T08:30:54.177Z","2020-02-23T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"A company with its main activity being cultured meat and/or dairy products will be valued at >= 1bn 2020USD by January 1st, 2030.",89,,"Styrke","Mati Roy",,,"cellular-agriculture","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T08:30:53.249Z","2020-02-23T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"A company with its main activity being cultured meat and/or dairy products will be valued at >= 1bn 2020USD by January 1st, 2030.",77,,"Styrke","Mati Roy",,,"cellular-agriculture","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T08:30:48.461Z","2020-02-23T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The first functional, 3D printed television/monitor screen will be demonstrated by 2020.",47,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T00:06:05.000Z","2012-01-30T07:03:23.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first functional, 3D printed television/monitor screen will be demonstrated by 2020.",25,,"faws","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-31T14:40:09.000Z","2012-01-30T07:03:23.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first functional, 3D printed television/monitor screen will be demonstrated by 2020.",75,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-30T07:03:23.000Z","2012-01-30T07:03:23.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""computing systems powerful enough to manage a synapse-level simulation of a human brain in real time and then some"" by 2092 --Charles Stross",66,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:08:44.349Z","2012-01-14T05:29:15.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""computing systems powerful enough to manage a synapse-level simulation of a human brain in real time and then some"" by 2092 --Charles Stross",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:54:15.000Z","2012-01-14T05:29:15.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""computing systems powerful enough to manage a synapse-level simulation of a human brain in real time and then some"" by 2092 --Charles Stross",90,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-14T05:29:15.000Z","2012-01-14T05:29:15.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""The USA will not have been the dominant planetary superpower for at least fifty years. The EU won't have replaced it. China will be over the peak and probably a long way down the down-slope. The future belongs to someone else. Maybe Brazil or India?"" --C",55,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:11:53.146Z","2012-01-14T05:21:12.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""The USA will not have been the dominant planetary superpower for at least fifty years. The EU won't have replaced it. China will be over the peak and probably a long way down the down-slope. The future belongs to someone else. Maybe Brazil or India?"" --C",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-14T05:21:12.000Z","2012-01-14T05:21:12.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""The USA will not have been the dominant planetary superpower for at least fifty years. The EU won't have replaced it. China will be over the peak and probably a long way down the down-slope. The future belongs to someone else. Maybe Brazil or India?"" --C",41,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:52:06.000Z","2012-01-14T05:21:12.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Half of Facebook, Google, Apple, Microsoft, Hewlett-Packard, Nokia, Sony and IBM will no longer exist"" --Charles Stross",61,,"themusicgod1","gwern","Nokia's gone.  HP/IBM losing grip.  MS lost monopoly status.  FB not being used by the kids.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:49:38.000Z","2012-01-14T05:17:04.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Half of Facebook, Google, Apple, Microsoft, Hewlett-Packard, Nokia, Sony and IBM will no longer exist"" --Charles Stross",45,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-14T05:17:04.000Z","2012-01-14T05:17:04.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Half of Facebook, Google, Apple, Microsoft, Hewlett-Packard, Nokia, Sony and IBM will no longer exist"" --Charles Stross",40,,"pranomostro","gwern","At 2050, 50%",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:18:12.432Z","2012-01-14T05:17:04.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Total Chinese rice production to be less in 2032 than in 2012",55,,"pranomostro","gwern","Not very confident here.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:25:09.067Z","2012-01-14T05:04:54.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Total Chinese rice production to be less in 2032 than in 2012",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-14T05:04:54.000Z","2012-01-14T05:04:54.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Total Chinese rice production to be less in 2032 than in 2012",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:42:11.000Z","2012-01-14T05:04:54.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Climate change denial completely discredited - ""about as respectable as Lysenkoism is today"" --Charles Stross",80,,"pranomostro","gwern","Resolution criteria unclear, also, this is already the case where I live.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:25:53.256Z","2012-01-14T05:02:27.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Climate change denial completely discredited - ""about as respectable as Lysenkoism is today"" --Charles Stross",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern","it seems to have become a political issue.  The right in america would have to implode to the point where climate change would cease to exist along the political spectrum. You don't have heads of opposition of G8 nations being vocally for lysenkoism",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:41:43.000Z","2012-01-14T05:02:27.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Climate change denial completely discredited - ""about as respectable as Lysenkoism is today"" --Charles Stross",75,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-14T05:02:27.000Z","2012-01-14T05:02:27.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Climate change denial completely discredited - ""about as respectable as Lysenkoism is today"" --Charles Stross",75,,"gwern","gwern","— an intellectually corrupt pseudo-science emerging at the behest of a bankrupt ideology."" http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2012/01/world-building-301-some-projec.html",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-14T05:04:08.000Z","2012-01-14T05:02:27.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Climate change denial completely discredited - ""about as respectable as Lysenkoism is today"" --Charles Stross",0,,"gwern","gwern","""the current remaining question marks over climate change will have been answered, and the answers won't be anything pleasant. Climate change denialism will probably be about as respectable as Lysenkoism is today ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-14T05:03:45.000Z","2012-01-14T05:02:27.000Z","2032-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Riemann's Hypothesis and Goldbach's Conjecture will be resolved before a proof is found of whether White wins or ties chess. --Doron Zeilberger",15,,"Anubhav","gwern","Oops... Didn't see the conjunction.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-08T09:59:19.000Z","2012-01-06T22:12:11.000Z","2112-01-06T12:00:00.000Z"
"Riemann's Hypothesis and Goldbach's Conjecture will be resolved before a proof is found of whether White wins or ties chess. --Doron Zeilberger",50,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-07T07:30:15.000Z","2012-01-06T22:12:11.000Z","2112-01-06T12:00:00.000Z"
"Riemann's Hypothesis and Goldbach's Conjecture will be resolved before a proof is found of whether White wins or ties chess. --Doron Zeilberger",18,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:27:46.141Z","2012-01-06T22:12:11.000Z","2112-01-06T12:00:00.000Z"
"Riemann's Hypothesis and Goldbach's Conjecture will be resolved before a proof is found of whether White wins or ties chess. --Doron Zeilberger",35,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-06T22:12:11.000Z","2012-01-06T22:12:11.000Z","2112-01-06T12:00:00.000Z"
"euro and us dollar will form a new currency within 10 years   (both will be supplanted by a common currency shared by the USA and some current Euro members)",2,,"faws","siscoking","You mean both will be supplanted by a common currency shared by the USA and some current Euro members, right? ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-04T19:29:28.000Z","2012-01-04T19:03:33.000Z","2022-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"euro and us dollar will form a new currency within 10 years   (both will be supplanted by a common currency shared by the USA and some current Euro members)",80,,"siscoking","siscoking",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-04T19:03:33.000Z","2012-01-04T19:03:33.000Z","2022-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"euro and us dollar will form a new currency within 10 years   (both will be supplanted by a common currency shared by the USA and some current Euro members)",47,,"themusicgod1","siscoking","though we're going to see changes on this order of magnitude on that timescale, I don't think this is going to be one of them.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:36:49.000Z","2012-01-04T19:03:33.000Z","2022-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"united Korea’s GDP > Japan in 2050",10,,"pranomostro","gwern","Revising downward, united Korea judged unlikely.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:32:33.632Z","2011-12-31T20:14:48.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"united Korea’s GDP > Japan in 2050",20,,"pranomostro","gwern","Hidden conjunction: Korea united & GDP > Japans GDP",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:32:08.225Z","2011-12-31T20:14:48.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"united Korea’s GDP > Japan in 2050",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:34:10.000Z","2011-12-31T20:14:48.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"united Korea’s GDP > Japan in 2050",65,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-31T20:14:48.000Z","2011-12-31T20:14:48.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"united Korea's GDP > France, Germany, and Japan in 2050",30,,"pranomostro","gwern","Is that an and or an or between the countries names?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:33:41.197Z","2011-12-31T20:12:33.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"united Korea's GDP > France, Germany, and Japan in 2050",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:34:01.000Z","2011-12-31T20:12:33.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"united Korea's GDP > France, Germany, and Japan in 2050",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-31T20:12:33.000Z","2011-12-31T20:12:33.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2061.",40,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-04T08:10:40.000Z","2011-12-04T08:10:40.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2061.",57,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:39:29.000Z","2011-12-04T08:10:40.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2061.",28,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:11:10.000Z","2011-12-04T08:10:40.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2061.",55,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-04T17:55:47.000Z","2011-12-04T08:10:40.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By five years from now, (independent) transcriptome data from human post-mortem samples will confirm the finding that the expression of DRD2 is significantly upregulated in the striatum during development (from birth to >= day 100, at alpha 0.05), conting",65,,"JoshuaZ","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-25T03:29:40.000Z","2011-11-24T02:23:18.000Z","2016-11-24T02:23:18.000Z"
"By five years from now, (independent) transcriptome data from human post-mortem samples will confirm the finding that the expression of DRD2 is significantly upregulated in the striatum during development (from birth to >= day 100, at alpha 0.05), conting",75,,"gwern","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-24T18:39:19.000Z","2011-11-24T02:23:18.000Z","2016-11-24T02:23:18.000Z"
"By five years from now, (independent) transcriptome data from human post-mortem samples will confirm the finding that the expression of DRD2 is significantly upregulated in the striatum during development (from birth to >= day 100, at alpha 0.05), conting",95,,"Porejide","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-24T02:23:18.000Z","2011-11-24T02:23:18.000Z","2016-11-24T02:23:18.000Z"
"Will the EA Forum ship the Elicit Prediction feature before EOD Monday?",70,"YES","johnpaddison","johnpaddison","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T15:25:10.282Z","2020-11-26T15:25:10.275Z","2020-12-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the EA Forum ship the Elicit Prediction feature before EOD Monday?",85,"YES","JP Addison","johnpaddison",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-27T17:40:15.035Z","2020-11-26T15:25:10.275Z","2020-12-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the EA Forum ship the Elicit Prediction feature before EOD Monday?",72,"YES","JP Addison","johnpaddison",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T14:30:57.778Z","2020-11-26T15:25:10.275Z","2020-12-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the EA Forum ship the Elicit Prediction feature before EOD Monday?",84,"YES","JP Addison","johnpaddison",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-03T14:31:00.070Z","2020-11-26T15:25:10.275Z","2020-12-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the EA Forum ship the Elicit Prediction feature before EOD Monday?",70,"YES","habryka231","johnpaddison",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-08T20:52:12.805Z","2020-11-26T15:25:10.275Z","2020-12-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the EA Forum ship the Elicit Prediction feature before EOD Monday?",29,"YES","habryka231","johnpaddison",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-08T20:52:14.013Z","2020-11-26T15:25:10.275Z","2020-12-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the EA Forum ship the Elicit Prediction feature before EOD Monday?",40,"YES","habryka231","johnpaddison",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-08T20:52:15.026Z","2020-11-26T15:25:10.275Z","2020-12-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the EA Forum ship the Elicit Prediction feature before EOD Monday?",33,"YES","habryka231","johnpaddison",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-08T20:52:15.843Z","2020-11-26T15:25:10.275Z","2020-12-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the EA Forum ship the Elicit Prediction feature before EOD Monday?",12,"YES","habryka231","johnpaddison",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-08T20:52:16.601Z","2020-11-26T15:25:10.275Z","2020-12-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the EA Forum ship the Elicit Prediction feature before EOD Monday?",39,"YES","habryka231","johnpaddison",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-08T20:52:17.742Z","2020-11-26T15:25:10.275Z","2020-12-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the EA Forum ship the Elicit Prediction feature before EOD Monday?",45,"YES","habryka231","johnpaddison",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-08T20:52:19.339Z","2020-11-26T15:25:10.275Z","2020-12-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the EA Forum ship the Elicit Prediction feature before EOD Monday?",31,"YES","habryka231","johnpaddison",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-08T20:52:24.619Z","2020-11-26T15:25:10.275Z","2020-12-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the EA Forum ship the Elicit Prediction feature before EOD Monday?",8,"YES","habryka231","johnpaddison",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-08T20:52:52.539Z","2020-11-26T15:25:10.275Z","2020-12-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the EA Forum ship the Elicit Prediction feature before EOD Monday?",18,"YES","habryka231","johnpaddison",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-08T20:52:53.642Z","2020-11-26T15:25:10.275Z","2020-12-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biometric clothing will be a trillion dollar market by 2025.",75,,"Harbinger1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T01:41:14.000Z","2011-11-17T01:41:14.000Z","2025-12-27T20:25:00.000Z"
"Biometric clothing will be a trillion dollar market by 2025.",27,,"themusicgod1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T21:52:39.000Z","2011-11-17T01:41:14.000Z","2025-12-27T20:25:00.000Z"
"Biometric clothing will be a trillion dollar market by 2025.",1,,"lavalamp","Harbinger1","would be larger than current clothing market size...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T17:02:28.000Z","2011-11-17T01:41:14.000Z","2025-12-27T20:25:00.000Z"
"By 2025, water vapor will be detected in the atmosphere of at least one free-floating ""rogue planet"". ",14,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T22:25:46.000Z","2011-11-12T19:25:05.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, water vapor will be detected in the atmosphere of at least one free-floating ""rogue planet"". ",15,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-13T03:55:55.000Z","2011-11-12T19:25:05.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, water vapor will be detected in the atmosphere of at least one free-floating ""rogue planet"". ",75,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-12T19:25:05.000Z","2011-11-12T19:25:05.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, water vapor will be detected in the atmosphere of at least one free-floating ""rogue planet"". ",47,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T21:25:37.000Z","2011-11-12T19:25:05.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, at least one object larger than Mars will be discovered within 4 lightyears of our Solar System.",29,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T22:26:02.000Z","2011-11-12T19:05:54.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, at least one object larger than Mars will be discovered within 4 lightyears of our Solar System.",36,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight","it wouldn't surprise me if there were really a chunk of ice/rock that big out there beyond the oort cloud somewhere, but finding it might be nontrivial",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T21:28:39.000Z","2011-11-12T19:05:54.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, at least one object larger than Mars will be discovered within 4 lightyears of our Solar System.",30,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-13T05:11:57.000Z","2011-11-12T19:05:54.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, at least one object larger than Mars will be discovered within 4 lightyears of our Solar System.",60,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-12T19:05:54.000Z","2011-11-12T19:05:54.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Holographic television will be widely available by 2021.",80,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-02T15:41:40.000Z","2011-11-02T15:41:39.000Z","2021-11-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Holographic television will be widely available by 2021.",50,,"tswift","NathanMcKnight","What does widely available mean? If some website sells it and anyone can buy it, then by that measure it is widely available, but in the same situation maybe nobody is using it",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-04T06:18:23.000Z","2011-11-02T15:41:39.000Z","2021-11-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Holographic television will be widely available by 2021.",35,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-02T15:59:28.000Z","2011-11-02T15:41:39.000Z","2021-11-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch have a post on the EA Forum with karma >=100 by December 31, 2021?",56,,"Linch","Linch","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","Rethink Priorities,Effective Altruism,EA Forum,social media,karma,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T22:45:17.343Z","2020-11-28T22:45:17.338Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch have a post on the EA Forum with karma >=100 by December 31, 2021?",10,,"Peter H","Linch","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","Rethink Priorities,Effective Altruism,EA Forum,social media,karma,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T00:18:15.578Z","2020-11-28T22:45:17.338Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch have a post on the EA Forum with karma >=100 by December 31, 2021?",20,,"Peter H","Linch","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","Rethink Priorities,Effective Altruism,EA Forum,social media,karma,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T00:22:38.587Z","2020-11-28T22:45:17.338Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch have a post on the EA Forum with karma >=100 by December 31, 2021?",30,,"Peter H","Linch","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","Rethink Priorities,Effective Altruism,EA Forum,social media,karma,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T00:22:42.950Z","2020-11-28T22:45:17.338Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch have a post on the EA Forum with karma >=100 by December 31, 2021?",37,,"Will K","Linch","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","Rethink Priorities,Effective Altruism,EA Forum,social media,karma,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T05:20:40.671Z","2020-11-28T22:45:17.338Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch publish a post on the EA Forum in 2021 that has >80 karma? ",64,,"Linch","Linch","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","Effective Altruism,EA Forum,social media,karma,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-28T22:48:18.286Z","2020-11-28T22:48:18.280Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch publish a post on the EA Forum in 2021 that has >80 karma? ",50,,"Peter H","Linch","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","Effective Altruism,EA Forum,social media,karma,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T00:17:39.815Z","2020-11-28T22:48:18.280Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch publish a post on the EA Forum in 2021 that has >80 karma? ",60,,"Peter H","Linch","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","Effective Altruism,EA Forum,social media,karma,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T00:18:26.747Z","2020-11-28T22:48:18.280Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch publish a post on the EA Forum in 2021 that has >80 karma? ",0,,"Will K","Linch","45","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","Effective Altruism,EA Forum,social media,karma,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T05:19:33.504Z","2020-11-28T22:48:18.280Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Linch publish a post on the EA Forum in 2021 that has >80 karma? ",45,,"Will K","Linch","","https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iMwRXC9MRA5Q-9K1rzlpDVK5-ZL2e2ryMJECM8lu6BY/edit","Effective Altruism,EA Forum,social media,karma,Linch-Personal-Questions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-29T05:19:47.378Z","2020-11-28T22:48:18.280Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"econstudentlog.wordpress.com or its successor will cease to be updated",40,,"pranomostro","gwern","Still there.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-20T21:07:15.423Z","2011-10-23T15:07:41.000Z","2021-10-23T15:07:40.000Z"
"econstudentlog.wordpress.com or its successor will cease to be updated",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern","made it roughly halfway, but most blogs cease to be updated.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T05:08:01.000Z","2011-10-23T15:07:41.000Z","2021-10-23T15:07:40.000Z"
"econstudentlog.wordpress.com or its successor will cease to be updated",75,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-23T15:07:43.000Z","2011-10-23T15:07:41.000Z","2021-10-23T15:07:40.000Z"
"By 2075 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ",65,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:18:47.422Z","2011-10-15T21:19:58.000Z","2075-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2075 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ",55,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-07T16:24:53.000Z","2011-10-15T21:19:58.000Z","2075-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2075 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ",50,,"gwern","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-17T15:34:16.000Z","2011-10-15T21:19:58.000Z","2075-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2075 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ",65,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-15T21:19:58.000Z","2011-10-15T21:19:58.000Z","2075-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2055 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ",42,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:20:30.658Z","2011-10-15T21:14:46.000Z","2055-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2055 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ",45,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-07T16:25:27.000Z","2011-10-15T21:14:46.000Z","2055-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2055 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ",50,,"gwern","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-17T15:48:02.000Z","2011-10-15T21:14:46.000Z","2055-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2055 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ",54,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-15T21:14:46.000Z","2011-10-15T21:14:46.000Z","2055-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2055 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ",60,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:20:47.066Z","2011-10-15T21:14:10.000Z","2055-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2055 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ",75,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-07T16:25:39.000Z","2011-10-15T21:14:10.000Z","2055-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2055 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ",35,,"gwern","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-17T15:47:52.000Z","2011-10-15T21:14:10.000Z","2055-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2055 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ",85,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-15T21:14:11.000Z","2011-10-15T21:14:10.000Z","2055-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2045 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ",5,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ","Currently 113 or older.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:21:29.482Z","2011-10-15T21:13:35.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2045 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ",28,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-07T21:44:33.000Z","2011-10-15T21:13:35.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2045 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ",25,,"gwern","JoshuaZ","another 106er",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-07T18:17:55.000Z","2011-10-15T21:13:35.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2045 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ",35,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-07T16:25:49.000Z","2011-10-15T21:13:35.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2045 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ",30,,"gwern","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-17T15:47:46.000Z","2011-10-15T21:13:35.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2045 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ",38,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-15T21:13:35.000Z","2011-10-15T21:13:35.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2035 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ",0,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T14:18:11.699Z","2011-10-15T21:12:24.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2035 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ",0,,"pranomostro","JoshuaZ","Currently 123, not possible unless major revelation.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:22:22.682Z","2011-10-15T21:12:24.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2035 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ",1,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Updating for consistency with http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3847",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-16T14:26:24.000Z","2011-10-15T21:12:24.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2035 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ",15,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-15T21:12:27.000Z","2011-10-15T21:12:24.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2035 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ",0,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-07T16:26:10.000Z","2011-10-15T21:12:24.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2035 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ",8,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Adjusting down after having looked at numbers more. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-22T23:54:45.000Z","2011-10-15T21:12:24.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2035 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ",7,,"gwern","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-17T15:34:03.000Z","2011-10-15T21:12:24.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"When Maru dies, his owner (or someone else) will post videos of him and/or his coffin.",55,,"Sandra Åhlén","roxton",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-06T00:43:45.000Z","2011-10-05T00:13:26.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"When Maru dies, his owner (or someone else) will post videos of him and/or his coffin.",50,,"gwern","roxton","Joshua: well, the cat is obviously going to die at some point - no cat has yet lived forever. At that point, it's just a binary question - film or no film? (switch to 50% based on roxton's odd videos.)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-05T15:06:26.000Z","2011-10-05T00:13:26.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"When Maru dies, his owner (or someone else) will post videos of him and/or his coffin.",40,,"gwern","roxton","the dead Maru, specifically? that seems rather morbid a thing to do.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-05T00:51:36.000Z","2011-10-05T00:13:26.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"When Maru dies, his owner (or someone else) will post videos of him and/or his coffin.",45,,"roxton","roxton",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-05T00:13:26.000Z","2011-10-05T00:13:26.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""The vast majority of aeroplanes are now hydrogen powered, or use some combination of hydrogen and other renewable energy.""",30,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:29:04.922Z","2011-09-25T18:27:20.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""The vast majority of aeroplanes are now hydrogen powered, or use some combination of hydrogen and other renewable energy.""",15,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:28:56.740Z","2011-09-25T18:27:20.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""The vast majority of aeroplanes are now hydrogen powered, or use some combination of hydrogen and other renewable energy.""",36,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T02:59:50.000Z","2011-09-25T18:27:20.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""The vast majority of aeroplanes are now hydrogen powered, or use some combination of hydrogen and other renewable energy.""",25,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-25T18:27:20.000Z","2011-09-25T18:27:20.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"NGE: Rebuild Gendo is Kaworu's genetic father",10,,"papermachine","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-19T06:11:29.000Z","2011-09-15T00:13:52.000Z","2018-01-01T18:47:22.000Z"
"NGE: Rebuild Gendo is Kaworu's genetic father",30,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-15T00:13:52.000Z","2011-09-15T00:13:52.000Z","2018-01-01T18:47:22.000Z"
"NGE: Rebuild Gendo is Kaworu's genetic father",48,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-30T06:42:01.000Z","2011-09-15T00:13:52.000Z","2018-01-01T18:47:22.000Z"
"Turkish GDP > Russian in 2050 --HSBC",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T01:47:36.000Z","2011-08-13T00:46:44.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Turkish GDP > Russian in 2050 --HSBC",55,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-03T22:00:19.145Z","2011-08-13T00:46:44.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Turkish GDP > Russian in 2050 --HSBC",75,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-13T00:46:44.000Z","2011-08-13T00:46:44.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chinese & Indian per capita in 2050 will be 8x greater (in constant 2000 dollars) than 2011 --HSBC",60,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-03T22:02:04.015Z","2011-08-13T00:46:26.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chinese & Indian per capita in 2050 will be 8x greater (in constant 2000 dollars) than 2011 --HSBC",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T01:46:10.000Z","2011-08-13T00:46:26.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chinese & Indian per capita in 2050 will be 8x greater (in constant 2000 dollars) than 2011 --HSBC",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-13T00:46:26.000Z","2011-08-13T00:46:26.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"India >=$8.2 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 --HSBC",70,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-03T22:04:03.023Z","2011-08-13T00:46:06.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"India >=$8.2 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 --HSBC",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T01:44:42.000Z","2011-08-13T00:46:06.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"India >=$8.2 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 --HSBC",80,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-08-13T00:46:06.000Z","2011-08-13T00:46:06.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 3 of us will bet on a crypto-based prediction market in the 2022 election cycle",29,,"jungwon","jungwon","","","jbfriends","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:25:48.178Z","2020-12-01T17:16:35.670Z","2023-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"At least 3 of us will bet on a crypto-based prediction market in the 2022 election cycle",40,,"jungwon","jungwon",".8*.75*.5+.8*.75*.5*.3+.8*.75*.3*0.05","","jbfriends","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:26:15.282Z","2020-12-01T17:16:35.670Z","2023-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"At least 3 of us will bet on a crypto-based prediction market in the 2022 election cycle",40,,"v","jungwon","betting on JB's view","","jbfriends","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-06T19:40:36.304Z","2020-12-01T17:16:35.670Z","2023-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"At least 3 of us will bet on a crypto-based prediction market in the 2022 election cycle",80,,"v","jungwon","updating now that i have bet on a crypto-based prediction market and it was pretty good","","jbfriends","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-08T22:57:40.265Z","2020-12-01T17:16:35.670Z","2023-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"At least 3 of us will bet on a crypto-based prediction market in the 2022 election cycle",0.65,,"Grant S","jungwon","can i not delete this?","","jbfriends","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-07T01:18:08.478Z","2020-12-01T17:16:35.670Z","2023-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"At least 3 of us will bet on a crypto-based prediction market in the 2022 election cycle",65,,"Grant S","jungwon","","","jbfriends","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-07T01:18:14.119Z","2020-12-01T17:16:35.670Z","2023-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"'Global average temperatures have risen by 1°C'",60,,"pranomostro","gwern","https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:12:01.577Z","2011-06-07T19:07:34.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Global average temperatures have risen by 1°C'",70,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:11:23.971Z","2011-06-07T19:07:34.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Global average temperatures have risen by 1°C'",52,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-02T15:32:37.000Z","2011-06-07T19:07:34.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Global average temperatures have risen by 1°C'",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-06-07T19:07:34.000Z","2011-06-07T19:07:34.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"World record for marathon <2 hours --François Péronnet",25,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-17T20:13:08.000Z","2011-05-17T20:13:08.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"World record for marathon <2 hours --François Péronnet",65,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T02:46:24.875Z","2011-05-17T20:13:08.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"World record for marathon <2 hours --François Péronnet",60,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:21:21.701Z","2011-05-17T20:13:08.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Sl4.org email archives will not be publicly available as text/HTML at sl4.org by 2030.",46,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T02:52:29.533Z","2011-05-11T21:37:22.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Sl4.org email archives will not be publicly available as text/HTML at sl4.org by 2030.",40,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T20:21:45.266Z","2011-05-11T21:37:22.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Sl4.org email archives will not be publicly available as text/HTML at sl4.org by 2030.",75,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-11T21:37:23.000Z","2011-05-11T21:37:22.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Despite all the China and North Korea fears, Pakistan and India will cause WW3",70,,"sailoryoon","Jase9r",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-04-26T03:04:37.000Z","2011-04-24T01:27:16.000Z","2025-04-24T01:27:16.000Z"
"Despite all the China and North Korea fears, Pakistan and India will cause WW3",68,,"Jase9r","Jase9r",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-04-24T01:27:17.000Z","2011-04-24T01:27:16.000Z","2025-04-24T01:27:16.000Z"
"Despite all the China and North Korea fears, Pakistan and India will cause WW3",40,,"themusicgod1","Jase9r",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T22:52:59.000Z","2011-04-24T01:27:16.000Z","2025-04-24T01:27:16.000Z"
"Earth's Rotation will be used as a new energy source, in future!",4,,"themusicgod1","nam2001",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T03:30:37.000Z","2011-04-20T14:35:03.000Z","2111-04-20T14:35:03.000Z"
"Earth's Rotation will be used as a new energy source, in future!",0,,"Anubhav","nam2001",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T08:53:18.000Z","2011-04-20T14:35:03.000Z","2111-04-20T14:35:03.000Z"
"Earth's Rotation will be used as a new energy source, in future!",20,,"nam2001","nam2001",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-04-20T14:35:03.000Z","2011-04-20T14:35:03.000Z","2111-04-20T14:35:03.000Z"
"US CBO: health spending >=49% of GDP in 2082",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T04:01:34.000Z","2011-01-03T16:59:51.000Z","2083-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US CBO: health spending >=49% of GDP in 2082",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-03T16:59:51.000Z","2011-01-03T16:59:51.000Z","2083-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US CBO: health spending >=49% of GDP in 2082",8,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:10:08.961Z","2011-01-03T16:59:51.000Z","2083-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US CBO: health spending >=25% of GDP in 2025.",70,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-03T16:58:30.000Z","2011-01-03T16:58:20.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US CBO: health spending >=25% of GDP in 2025.",40,,"pranomostro","gwern","18% in 2016: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/health-expenditures.htm",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:11:11.701Z","2011-01-03T16:58:20.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US CBO: health spending >=25% of GDP in 2025.",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T04:01:36.000Z","2011-01-03T16:58:20.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 25 posts have a ""Double-Crux"" tag on LessWrong (excluding erroneous tags just trying to hijack the question) by May 1st, 2021?",25,,"habryka","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-23T20:59:27.931Z","2020-11-20T20:04:10.922Z","2021-05-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 25 posts have a ""Double-Crux"" tag on LessWrong (excluding erroneous tags just trying to hijack the question) by May 1st, 2021?",25,,"Ben Pace","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:11:17.892Z","2020-11-20T20:04:10.922Z","2021-05-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 25 posts have a ""Double-Crux"" tag on LessWrong (excluding erroneous tags just trying to hijack the question) by May 1st, 2021?",23,,"Ben Pace","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:10:51.143Z","2020-11-20T20:04:10.922Z","2021-05-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 25 posts have a ""Double-Crux"" tag on LessWrong (excluding erroneous tags just trying to hijack the question) by May 1st, 2021?",19,,"jacobjacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:04:58.726Z","2020-11-20T20:04:10.922Z","2021-05-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Copyright on Steamboat Willy will be extended in some manner past 2023.",85,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-12-30T04:06:40.000Z","2010-12-30T04:06:37.000Z","2023-01-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"Copyright on Steamboat Willy will be extended in some manner past 2023.",70,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:16:17.109Z","2010-12-30T04:06:37.000Z","2023-01-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"Copyright on Steamboat Willy will be extended in some manner past 2023.",96,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T03:11:00.000Z","2010-12-30T04:06:37.000Z","2023-01-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"Contact with the Voyager probes is lost by 2026",75,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:32:50.731Z","2010-11-11T22:00:33.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Contact with the Voyager probes is lost by 2026",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T02:37:06.000Z","2010-11-11T22:00:33.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Contact with the Voyager probes is lost by 2026",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-11T22:00:37.000Z","2010-11-11T22:00:33.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Petabyte storage devices are available in 2024",45,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:45:44.482Z","2010-10-27T20:56:04.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Petabyte storage devices are available in 2024",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern","http://www.gvsnet.com/nomviraidard1.html you weren't very specific about what kind of device",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T02:20:37.000Z","2010-10-27T20:56:04.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Petabyte storage devices are available in 2024",80,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-27T20:56:04.000Z","2010-10-27T20:56:04.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Solar Probe Plus flies into Sun's corona in 2024",64,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T02:21:32.000Z","2010-10-27T20:54:59.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Solar Probe Plus flies into Sun's corona in 2024",55,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:46:03.034Z","2010-10-27T20:54:59.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Solar Probe Plus flies into Sun's corona in 2024",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-27T20:54:59.000Z","2010-10-27T20:54:59.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2025 Neurological research finally leads to an understanding of all the senses, and direct input becomes possible, bypassing ears, eyes, skin, etc. The result is the metal ""Braincap."" Anyone wearing this close-fitting helmet can enter a whole universe of",15,,"pranomostro","gwern","Interpreted loosely.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:48:45.150Z","2010-10-26T16:38:27.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2025 Neurological research finally leads to an understanding of all the senses, and direct input becomes possible, bypassing ears, eyes, skin, etc. The result is the metal ""Braincap."" Anyone wearing this close-fitting helmet can enter a whole universe of",28,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T02:14:48.000Z","2010-10-26T16:38:27.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2025 Neurological research finally leads to an understanding of all the senses, and direct input becomes possible, bypassing ears, eyes, skin, etc. The result is the metal ""Braincap."" Anyone wearing this close-fitting helmet can enter a whole universe of",5,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-26T16:38:27.000Z","2010-10-26T16:38:27.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2023 Dinosaur facsimiles are cloned from computer-generated DNA.' --Arthur C. Clarke",2,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-09T13:48:48.953Z","2010-10-26T16:37:06.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2023 Dinosaur facsimiles are cloned from computer-generated DNA.' --Arthur C. Clarke",2,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:49:10.854Z","2010-10-26T16:37:06.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2023 Dinosaur facsimiles are cloned from computer-generated DNA.' --Arthur C. Clarke",3,,"JoshuaZ","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-24T17:51:09.000Z","2010-10-26T16:37:06.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'2023 Dinosaur facsimiles are cloned from computer-generated DNA.' --Arthur C. Clarke",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-26T16:37:07.000Z","2010-10-26T16:37:06.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Borneo’s rainforests have been wiped from the map' by 2023",45,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:51:51.545Z","2010-10-26T16:35:41.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Borneo’s rainforests have been wiped from the map' by 2023",36,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T02:06:48.000Z","2010-10-26T16:35:41.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Borneo’s rainforests have been wiped from the map' by 2023",40,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-26T16:35:41.000Z","2010-10-26T16:35:41.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Turkey becomes self-sufficient in energy production' by 2023",20,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:52:12.770Z","2010-10-26T16:34:54.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Turkey becomes self-sufficient in energy production' by 2023",11,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T02:06:00.000Z","2010-10-26T16:34:54.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Turkey becomes self-sufficient in energy production' by 2023",30,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-26T16:34:54.000Z","2010-10-26T16:34:54.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'A permanent cure for migraine is available' by 2023",10,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:52:23.514Z","2010-10-26T16:34:23.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'A permanent cure for migraine is available' by 2023",27,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T02:05:07.000Z","2010-10-26T16:34:23.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'A permanent cure for migraine is available' by 2023",15,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-26T16:34:25.000Z","2010-10-26T16:34:23.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Phone calls entail three-dimensional holographic images of both people. --Ray Kurzweil",5,,"kallman","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-20T06:06:26.000Z","2010-10-26T02:34:29.000Z","2051-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Phone calls entail three-dimensional holographic images of both people. --Ray Kurzweil",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-26T02:34:30.000Z","2010-10-26T02:34:29.000Z","2051-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Phone calls entail three-dimensional holographic images of both people. --Ray Kurzweil",2,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:53:30.234Z","2010-10-26T02:34:29.000Z","2051-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Nanotech clothing enters the mass market' by 2022",75,,"pranomostro","gwern","Interpreting loosely, like kallman.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T21:53:59.531Z","2010-10-26T02:33:32.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Nanotech clothing enters the mass market' by 2022",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-26T02:33:32.000Z","2010-10-26T02:33:32.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Nanotech clothing enters the mass market' by 2022",70,,"kallman","gwern","The stain resistant and water-repellant fabrics we already have are likely nanotech enough...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-22T23:16:58.000Z","2010-10-26T02:33:32.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Tooth regeneration is transforming dental care' by 2022",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T01:58:41.000Z","2010-10-26T02:32:44.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Tooth regeneration is transforming dental care' by 2022",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-26T02:32:44.000Z","2010-10-26T02:32:44.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Tooth regeneration is transforming dental care' by 2022",5,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-09T19:25:14.970Z","2010-10-26T02:32:44.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Piezoelectric nanowires are appearing in high-end products' by 2022",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T01:58:00.000Z","2010-10-26T02:32:14.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Piezoelectric nanowires are appearing in high-end products' by 2022",15,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-09T19:26:09.956Z","2010-10-26T02:32:14.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Piezoelectric nanowires are appearing in high-end products' by 2022",20,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-26T02:32:14.000Z","2010-10-26T02:32:14.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"CPUs switch from silicon to carbon nanotubes by 2022",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern","2024?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T01:56:36.000Z","2010-10-24T20:59:21.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"CPUs switch from silicon to carbon nanotubes by 2022",15,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-09T19:27:30.483Z","2010-10-24T20:59:21.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"CPUs switch from silicon to carbon nanotubes by 2022",20,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-09T19:27:25.467Z","2010-10-24T20:59:21.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"CPUs switch from silicon to carbon nanotubes by 2022",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-24T20:59:21.000Z","2010-10-24T20:59:21.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Water crisis in southwest USA' in 2021",50,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-09T19:27:54.862Z","2010-10-24T20:57:18.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Water crisis in southwest USA' in 2021",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T01:56:13.000Z","2010-10-24T20:57:18.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Water crisis in southwest USA' in 2021",30,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-24T20:57:20.000Z","2010-10-24T20:57:18.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""within 15 years, Google will be buying what is left of Oracle"" --imbcmdth",20,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-10T21:04:41.325Z","2010-09-22T17:29:33.000Z","2025-09-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"""within 15 years, Google will be buying what is left of Oracle"" --imbcmdth",28,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T01:36:31.000Z","2010-09-22T17:29:33.000Z","2025-09-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"""within 15 years, Google will be buying what is left of Oracle"" --imbcmdth",5,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-22T17:29:34.000Z","2010-09-22T17:29:33.000Z","2025-09-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"""I will continue to post on LW at least once a month...in 2020"" --magfrump",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-25T06:11:41.000Z","2010-08-25T06:11:41.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"""I will continue to post on LW at least once a month...in 2020"" --magfrump",20,,"pranomostro","gwern","Stopped posting last year.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-10T21:17:26.880Z","2010-08-25T06:11:41.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"""I will continue to post on LW at least once a month...in 2020"" --magfrump",4,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T01:18:11.000Z","2010-08-25T06:11:41.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"""sites like intrade gain prestige in the next decade""",45,,"pranomostro","gwern","Unclear resolution criteria, and a bit early, but the general trend seems right: both Augur and PredictIt seem to be making progress.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-10T21:26:45.593Z","2010-08-25T06:10:00.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""sites like intrade gain prestige in the next decade""",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T01:16:49.000Z","2010-08-25T06:10:00.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""sites like intrade gain prestige in the next decade""",85,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-25T06:10:00.000Z","2010-08-25T06:10:00.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""there is a student at 75% or so of high schools in 2020 that will take bets on future predictions on any subject"" --magfrump",5,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-10T21:28:20.534Z","2010-08-25T06:08:56.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"""there is a student at 75% or so of high schools in 2020 that will take bets on future predictions on any subject"" --magfrump",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-25T06:08:57.000Z","2010-08-25T06:08:56.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"""there is a student at 75% or so of high schools in 2020 that will take bets on future predictions on any subject"" --magfrump",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern","measuring this is going to be hard",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T01:16:17.000Z","2010-08-25T06:08:56.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Lindsay Lohan will die before 50",25,,"pranomostro","jande417",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-10T21:38:13.869Z","2010-08-19T02:32:54.000Z","2040-08-19T02:32:53.000Z"
"Lindsay Lohan will die before 50",20,,"gwern","jande417","about the only thing she has to worry about is a drug overdose or car accident; the former is presumably less likely with her rehabs.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-19T08:51:52.000Z","2010-08-19T02:32:54.000Z","2040-08-19T02:32:53.000Z"
"Lindsay Lohan will die before 50",40,,"jande417","jande417",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-19T02:32:55.000Z","2010-08-19T02:32:54.000Z","2040-08-19T02:32:53.000Z"
"""Crude oil may plunge to less than $10 a barrel in the next decade after surging to a record $147 last year"" --Robert Prechter",5,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T13:34:05.922Z","2010-08-03T07:05:33.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Crude oil may plunge to less than $10 a barrel in the next decade after surging to a record $147 last year"" --Robert Prechter",36,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:39:56.000Z","2010-08-03T07:05:33.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Crude oil may plunge to less than $10 a barrel in the next decade after surging to a record $147 last year"" --Robert Prechter",5,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-03T07:05:33.000Z","2010-08-03T07:05:33.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the year 2035 non-invasive devices will allow us to interface with the internet (including accessing information in a similar sense to recalling memories) using electro-stimulus from neuron signals.”",40,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:16:52.313Z","2010-08-01T13:08:52.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the year 2035 non-invasive devices will allow us to interface with the internet (including accessing information in a similar sense to recalling memories) using electro-stimulus from neuron signals.”",84,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:09:17.000Z","2010-08-01T13:08:52.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By the year 2035 non-invasive devices will allow us to interface with the internet (including accessing information in a similar sense to recalling memories) using electro-stimulus from neuron signals.”",55,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-01T13:08:52.000Z","2010-08-01T13:08:52.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that my projections for methane atmospheric concentrations, industrial carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and atmospheric concentrations, and resultant lower tropospheric temperatures will be more accurate than those found in the Intergovernmental ",30,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:49:14.602Z","2010-07-30T09:08:28.000Z","2101-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that my projections for methane atmospheric concentrations, industrial carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and atmospheric concentrations, and resultant lower tropospheric temperatures will be more accurate than those found in the Intergovernmental ",8,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T23:52:47.000Z","2010-07-30T09:08:28.000Z","2101-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that my projections for methane atmospheric concentrations, industrial carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and atmospheric concentrations, and resultant lower tropospheric temperatures will be more accurate than those found in the Intergovernmental ",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T09:08:28.000Z","2010-07-30T09:08:28.000Z","2101-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“The world per-capita GDP in the year 2000 was approximately $7,200. The world per-capita GDP (in year 2000 dollars) will exceed $13,000 in the year 2020, $31,000 in 2040, $130,000 in 2060, $1,000,000 in 2080, and $10,000,000 in 2100.”",25,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:50:21.390Z","2010-07-30T09:07:48.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“The world per-capita GDP in the year 2000 was approximately $7,200. The world per-capita GDP (in year 2000 dollars) will exceed $13,000 in the year 2020, $31,000 in 2040, $130,000 in 2060, $1,000,000 in 2080, and $10,000,000 in 2100.”",3,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T23:51:36.000Z","2010-07-30T09:07:48.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“The world per-capita GDP in the year 2000 was approximately $7,200. The world per-capita GDP (in year 2000 dollars) will exceed $13,000 in the year 2020, $31,000 in 2040, $130,000 in 2060, $1,000,000 in 2080, and $10,000,000 in 2100.”",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T09:07:48.000Z","2010-07-30T09:07:48.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that global warming denialists such as MIT professor Richard Lindzen will be shown to be wrong over the next 20 years as global warming continues. Specifically, I believe the scientific consensus that temperatures are likely to increase by .3 d",86,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-15T03:01:20.577Z","2010-07-30T09:05:37.000Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that global warming denialists such as MIT professor Richard Lindzen will be shown to be wrong over the next 20 years as global warming continues. Specifically, I believe the scientific consensus that temperatures are likely to increase by .3 d",65,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:45:56.472Z","2010-07-30T09:05:37.000Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“I predict that global warming denialists such as MIT professor Richard Lindzen will be shown to be wrong over the next 20 years as global warming continues. Specifically, I believe the scientific consensus that temperatures are likely to increase by .3 d",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T09:05:37.000Z","2010-07-30T09:05:37.000Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“The concept of time as a linear dimension will be replaced by one of time as a polarity between content and context.”",5,,"pranomostro","gwern","By whom?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:37:28.862Z","2010-07-30T09:00:23.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“The concept of time as a linear dimension will be replaced by one of time as a polarity between content and context.”",39,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T23:55:38.000Z","2010-07-30T09:00:23.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“The concept of time as a linear dimension will be replaced by one of time as a polarity between content and context.”",1,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T09:00:25.000Z","2010-07-30T09:00:23.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“US accounting and banking regulations will not require that loan portfolios held in the ""banking book"" be marked to market before 2024.”",51,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:35:06.928Z","2010-07-30T06:26:00.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“US accounting and banking regulations will not require that loan portfolios held in the ""banking book"" be marked to market before 2024.”",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T23:48:50.000Z","2010-07-30T06:26:00.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“US accounting and banking regulations will not require that loan portfolios held in the ""banking book"" be marked to market before 2024.”",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T06:26:00.000Z","2010-07-30T06:26:00.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“There will be only three significant currencies used in the world by 2063. More than 95 % of the countries in the world will use one of them.”",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T23:42:03.000Z","2010-07-30T06:15:58.000Z","2063-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“There will be only three significant currencies used in the world by 2063. More than 95 % of the countries in the world will use one of them.”",66,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T06:15:59.000Z","2010-07-30T06:15:58.000Z","2063-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“There will be only three significant currencies used in the world by 2063. More than 95 % of the countries in the world will use one of them.”",35,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:33:10.762Z","2010-07-30T06:15:58.000Z","2063-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2060 the total population of humans on earth will be less than it is today.”",25,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:31:50.476Z","2010-07-30T06:12:08.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2060 the total population of humans on earth will be less than it is today.”",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T06:12:08.000Z","2010-07-30T06:12:08.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2060 the total population of humans on earth will be less than it is today.”",20,,"Grognor","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-06T19:53:26.000Z","2010-07-30T06:12:08.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2100 racism will no longer be a significant phenomenon in most countries of the world.”",20,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:31:38.934Z","2010-07-30T06:10:10.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2100 racism will no longer be a significant phenomenon in most countries of the world.”",3,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T23:38:23.000Z","2010-07-30T06:10:10.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2100 racism will no longer be a significant phenomenon in most countries of the world.”",5,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T06:10:11.000Z","2010-07-30T06:10:10.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Within 100 years the citizens and companies of a large and prosperous country in excess of 100 million people will no longer pay taxes of any kind.”",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T23:37:53.000Z","2010-07-30T05:58:32.000Z","2103-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Within 100 years the citizens and companies of a large and prosperous country in excess of 100 million people will no longer pay taxes of any kind.”",40,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:30:44.644Z","2010-07-30T05:58:32.000Z","2103-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Within 100 years the citizens and companies of a large and prosperous country in excess of 100 million people will no longer pay taxes of any kind.”",5,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T05:58:32.000Z","2010-07-30T05:58:32.000Z","2103-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, a neural-net-based AI can reliably slay the Ender Dragon in minecraft, playing survival on hard mode.",60,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, a neural-net-based AI can reliably slay the Ender Dragon in minecraft, playing survival on hard mode.",60,,"Rick","Daniel Kokotajlo",,,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-10T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, a neural-net-based AI can reliably slay the Ender Dragon in minecraft, playing survival on hard mode.",70,,"Timothy","Daniel Kokotajlo","Predictor note: 508",,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, Artemis will be able to get a burrito or Amazon package delivered to her house at least partially via drone or robot.",50,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"Artemis: the daughter of the question author; born 2019/9/22. Author note: Her parents are allowed to help place the order","tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, Artemis will be able to get a burrito or Amazon package delivered to her house at least partially via drone or robot.",52,,"Rick","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"Artemis: the daughter of the question author; born 2019/9/22. Author note: Her parents are allowed to help place the order","tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-10T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, Artemis will be able to get a burrito or Amazon package delivered to her house at least partially via drone or robot.",80,,"Timothy","Daniel Kokotajlo","Predictor note: 512","Artemis: the daughter of the question author; born 2019/9/22. Author note: Her parents are allowed to help place the order","tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, there are household robots which can vacuum, listen to voice commands, and answer questions from the internet, alexa-style.",75,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,,"tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, there are household robots which can vacuum, listen to voice commands, and answer questions from the internet, alexa-style.",60,,"Rick","Daniel Kokotajlo",,,"tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-10T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, there are household robots which can vacuum, listen to voice commands, and answer questions from the internet, alexa-style.",90,,"Timothy","Daniel Kokotajlo","Predictor note: 514",,"tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, at least one military fields flying drones that weigh less than 50lbs and are capable of shooting or blowing up humans.",70,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,,"tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, at least one military fields flying drones that weigh less than 50lbs and are capable of shooting or blowing up humans.",45,,"Rick","Daniel Kokotajlo",,,"tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-10T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, at least one military fields flying drones that weigh less than 50lbs and are capable of shooting or blowing up humans.",50,,"Timothy","Daniel Kokotajlo","Predictor note: 517",,"tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, at least 10% of the news articles Artemis reads are written entirely or almost entirely (e.g. except for human quality-check) by AI.",30,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"Artemis: the daughter of the question author; born 2019/9/22. ","AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, at least 10% of the news articles Artemis reads are written entirely or almost entirely (e.g. except for human quality-check) by AI.",15,,"Rick","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"Artemis: the daughter of the question author; born 2019/9/22. ","AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-10T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, at least 10% of the news articles Artemis reads are written entirely or almost entirely (e.g. except for human quality-check) by AI.",70,,"Timothy","Daniel Kokotajlo","Predictor note: 519","Artemis: the daughter of the question author; born 2019/9/22. ","AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, an AI can win at the International Mathematical Olympiad.",30,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, an AI can win at the International Mathematical Olympiad.",60,,"Timothy","Daniel Kokotajlo","Predictor note: 531",,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, an AI can win at the International Mathematical Olympiad.",25,,"girish","Daniel Kokotajlo","",,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-08T06:09:32.753Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, the turing test (with professional judges and an AI pretending to be a competent adult human) has been passed by a non-human entity.",20,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, the turing test (with professional judges and an AI pretending to be a competent adult human) has been passed by a non-human entity.",35,,"Rick","Daniel Kokotajlo",,,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-10T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, the turing test (with professional judges and an AI pretending to be a competent adult human) has been passed by a non-human entity.",40,,"Timothy","Daniel Kokotajlo","Predictor note: 506",,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, Artemis (or her dad/mom) can hail a taxi/uber/etc. that contains no one but her (them) in it, in at least twenty cities.",65,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"Artemis: the daughter of the question author; born 2019/9/22. Author note: Trying to avoid issues about Artemis being too young to legally ride in a self-driving car","tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, Artemis (or her dad/mom) can hail a taxi/uber/etc. that contains no one but her (them) in it, in at least twenty cities.",60,,"Rick","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"Artemis: the daughter of the question author; born 2019/9/22. Author note: Trying to avoid issues about Artemis being too young to legally ride in a self-driving car","tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-10T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, Artemis (or her dad/mom) can hail a taxi/uber/etc. that contains no one but her (them) in it, in at least twenty cities.",70,,"Timothy","Daniel Kokotajlo","Predictor note: 510","Artemis: the daughter of the question author; born 2019/9/22. Author note: Trying to avoid issues about Artemis being too young to legally ride in a self-driving car","tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, most cars on the roads in the USA are legally and physically capable of driving without human occupants.",30,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,,"tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, most cars on the roads in the USA are legally and physically capable of driving without human occupants.",10,,"Rick","Daniel Kokotajlo",,,"tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-10T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, most cars on the roads in the USA are legally and physically capable of driving without human occupants.",10,,"Timothy","Daniel Kokotajlo","Predictor note: 511",,"tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, at least one military fields ""Drone swarms"" of >100 drones that move together and are treated as a single unit for planning purposes.",70,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,,"tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, at least one military fields ""Drone swarms"" of >100 drones that move together and are treated as a single unit for planning purposes.",20,,"Rick","Daniel Kokotajlo",,,"tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-10T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, at least one military fields ""Drone swarms"" of >100 drones that move together and are treated as a single unit for planning purposes.",30,,"Timothy","Daniel Kokotajlo","Predictor note: 518",,"tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, neural net based AI exists which can write essays which, if submitted in most first-year college courses as if by a student, would receive B average.",35,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, neural net based AI exists which can write essays which, if submitted in most first-year college courses as if by a student, would receive B average.",60,,"Timothy","Daniel Kokotajlo","Predictor note: 521",,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, neural net based AI exists which can write essays which, if submitted in most first-year college courses as if by a student, would receive B average.",80,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo","",,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T09:03:45.285Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2070, at least six countries will have officially implemented a 4-day working week.”",90,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:27:25.776Z","2010-07-30T05:46:19.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2070, at least six countries will have officially implemented a 4-day working week.”",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T23:33:44.000Z","2010-07-30T05:46:19.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2070, at least six countries will have officially implemented a 4-day working week.”",85,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T05:46:19.000Z","2010-07-30T05:46:19.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2050, at least two pan-regional currencies, modeled on the Euro, will be used in the world.”",60,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:27:04.304Z","2010-07-30T05:43:45.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2050, at least two pan-regional currencies, modeled on the Euro, will be used in the world.”",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T23:34:41.000Z","2010-07-30T05:43:45.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2050, at least two pan-regional currencies, modeled on the Euro, will be used in the world.”",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T05:43:45.000Z","2010-07-30T05:43:45.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2100 a world government will be in place and in control of: business law, environmental law, and weapons of mass destruction.”",60,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:21:23.692Z","2010-07-30T05:25:13.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2100 a world government will be in place and in control of: business law, environmental law, and weapons of mass destruction.”",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T23:24:06.000Z","2010-07-30T05:25:13.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2100 a world government will be in place and in control of: business law, environmental law, and weapons of mass destruction.”",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T05:25:13.000Z","2010-07-30T05:25:13.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2050 no synthetic computer nor machine intelligence will have become truly self-aware (ie. will become conscious).”",60,,"pranomostro","gwern","We'd need clear criteria for consciousness here.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:19:07.611Z","2010-07-30T05:22:27.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2050 no synthetic computer nor machine intelligence will have become truly self-aware (ie. will become conscious).”",3,,"themusicgod1","gwern","Assuming: ""and we will accept it as such""",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T23:22:54.000Z","2010-07-30T05:22:27.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2050 no synthetic computer nor machine intelligence will have become truly self-aware (ie. will become conscious).”",40,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T05:22:27.000Z","2010-07-30T05:22:27.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, the states will have voted on at least one constitutional amendment to cede US federal power to a global government.”",60,,"Baeboo","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-16T02:03:31.016Z","2010-07-29T18:40:15.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, the states will have voted on at least one constitutional amendment to cede US federal power to a global government.”",60,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-15T21:50:03.994Z","2010-07-29T18:40:15.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, the states will have voted on at least one constitutional amendment to cede US federal power to a global government.”",90,,"gwern","gwern","http://www.longbets.org/156",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-29T18:40:29.000Z","2010-07-29T18:40:15.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, the states will have voted on at least one constitutional amendment to cede US federal power to a global government.”",85,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-29T18:40:15.000Z","2010-07-29T18:40:15.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will not be diagnosed with cancer before the age of 45.",96,,"pranomostro","anonym",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-25T23:15:31.000Z","2009-10-17T07:52:37.000Z","2019-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will not be diagnosed with cancer before the age of 45.",95,,"gwern","anonym",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-19T14:35:48.000Z","2009-10-17T07:52:37.000Z","2019-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will not be diagnosed with cancer before the age of 45.",97,,"anonym","anonym",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-10-17T07:52:37.000Z","2009-10-17T07:52:37.000Z","2019-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Non-obstruction across many possible environments implies a property like corrigibility.",75,,"adamShimi","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:21:55.837Z","2020-11-21T17:25:30.784Z","2100-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Non-obstruction across many possible environments implies a property like corrigibility.",50,,"Gurkenglas","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T04:28:27.108Z","2020-11-21T17:25:30.784Z","2100-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Non-obstruction across many possible environments implies a property like corrigibility.",40,,"Gurkenglas","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T04:27:02.207Z","2020-11-21T17:25:30.784Z","2100-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Non-obstruction across many possible environments implies a property like corrigibility.",60,,"TurnTrout","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T19:34:36.646Z","2020-11-21T17:25:30.784Z","2100-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Non-obstruction across many possible environments implies a property like corrigibility.",55,,"TurnTrout","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T18:09:58.039Z","2020-11-21T17:25:30.784Z","2100-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"(Agreement) Inducing non-obstruction is an instrumental strategy for hedging against our inability to figure out what we want.",95,,"adamShimi","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T20:20:16.283Z","2020-11-21T17:21:18.139Z","2100-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"(Agreement) Inducing non-obstruction is an instrumental strategy for hedging against our inability to figure out what we want.",95,,"Gurkenglas","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T00:47:19.162Z","2020-11-21T17:21:18.139Z","2100-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"(Agreement) Inducing non-obstruction is an instrumental strategy for hedging against our inability to figure out what we want.",90,,"TurnTrout","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T18:09:05.888Z","2020-11-21T17:21:18.139Z","2100-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"(Agreement) Inducing non-obstruction is an instrumental strategy for hedging against our inability to figure out what we want.",92,,"TurnTrout","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T18:08:46.716Z","2020-11-21T17:21:18.139Z","2100-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"(Agreement) Inducing non-obstruction is an instrumental strategy for hedging against our inability to figure out what we want.",95,,"TurnTrout","turneale",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T18:08:43.389Z","2020-11-21T17:21:18.139Z","2100-11-21T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Elicit/LessWrong API integration be free of bugs when I test it on this publicly-visible question, just now?",35,"NO","JimtestElicitPredictions","jimrandomh",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-19T22:19:20.098Z","2020-11-19T22:03:52.726Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Elicit/LessWrong API integration be free of bugs when I test it on this publicly-visible question, just now?",22,"NO","jimrandomh","jimrandomh",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-19T22:06:39.596Z","2020-11-19T22:03:52.726Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Elicit/LessWrong API integration be free of bugs when I test it on this publicly-visible question, just now?",10,"NO","jimrandomh","jimrandomh",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-19T22:06:38.764Z","2020-11-19T22:03:52.726Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Elicit/LessWrong API integration be free of bugs when I test it on this publicly-visible question, just now?",55,"NO","jimrandomh","jimrandomh",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-19T22:04:30.607Z","2020-11-19T22:03:52.726Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Elicit/LessWrong API integration be free of bugs when I test it on this publicly-visible question, just now?",40,"NO","jimrandomh","jimrandomh","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-19T22:03:52.732Z","2020-11-19T22:03:52.726Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"AI safety proves to be as hard as MIRI suggests.",45,,"jimrandomh","Adam Gleave",,"Note: 2100-01-01 is used as the default date as no resolution date was specified.","AI,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-19T21:59:19.740Z","2019-08-27T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"AI safety proves to be as hard as MIRI suggests.",10,,"Adam Gleave","Adam Gleave","Exact prediction: ""I think I put a reasonable probability, like 10% probability, on the hard-mode MIRI version of the world being true. In which case, I think there’s probably nothing we can do.""","Note: 2100-01-01 is used as the default date as no resolution date was specified.","AI,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-27T00:00:00.000Z","2019-08-27T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"AI safety proves to be as hard as MIRI suggests.",25,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Adam Gleave","","Note: 2100-01-01 is used as the default date as no resolution date was specified.","AI,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T09:02:34.255Z","2019-08-27T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"China’s (official) case number goes from its current 82,000 to 100,000 by the end of the year",40,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""Sell to 40%. They seem committed to not admitting this. Not going lower because 100,000 is only 18,000 more cases, so they could go that high without losing much face, but it still doesn’t seem likely to me. Also worth noting that in the scenarios where China can’t keep up face here, it seems clear that USA is over 300,000 dead. Otherwise, what forced China’s hand?""",,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"China’s (official) case number goes from its current 82,000 to 100,000 by the end of the year",70,,"Bucky","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"China’s (official) case number goes from its current 82,000 to 100,000 by the end of the year",70,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, US has highest death toll as per expert guesses of real numbers",80,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""Buy to 80%. Logic above applies. I can see assigning 10% to ‘China gets a real problem bigger than ours and refuses to admit it, but expert guesses realize this’ but it seems more like 5% to me, because it’s a narrow window where it actually is sufficiently bigger that experts pick up on it, but it’s not so much bigger that they cannot hide it.""",,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, US has highest death toll as per expert guesses of real numbers",60,,"Bucky","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, US has highest death toll as per expert guesses of real numbers",70,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, US has highest official death toll of any country",90,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""Buy to 90%. Realistically who is it going to be if it isn’t us? China or India. No one else has a big enough population. India seems not that vulnerable due to physical conditions and likely won’t be able to track things properly even when things get bad. So this comes down to how often China ends up with a higher death count than we have by end of year, and they admit it. Given what would happen to China if this did happen to them sufficiently that they’d be forced to admit it, I see such a scenario as highly unlikely.""",,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, US has highest official death toll of any country",80,,"Bucky","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, US has highest official death toll of any country",80,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Fewer than 300,000 US coronavirus deaths by 2021",30,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""Sell to 30%. This is in 2020 only, and official counts, and would require lower than current levels on average for the rest of the year. Right now, hospitals are not overwhelmed and states are looking to reopen soon. We’d need to hit this level to have substantial overall help from herd immunity. We’d need to make a lot of progress on many fronts, or have a strong treatment or vaccine quickly, to have a burn slow enough to stay under this number.""",,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Fewer than 300,000 US coronavirus deaths by 2021",60,,"Bucky","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Fewer than 300,000 US coronavirus deaths by 2021",50,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Dow is above 30,000 on 2021/1/1",10,,"Bucky","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,economics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Dow is above 30,000 on 2021/1/1",20,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,economics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Dow is above 30,000 on 2021/1/1",30,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""I don’t think a 50% chance for the 25-30k range is reasonable. Dow was flirting with 50k before. In the 50% of scenarios where Trump wins re-election (presumably good for stocks) we also presumably have good Covid-19 situations most of the time (also good for stocks) and large cap stocks have overperformed throughout. There’s therefore a good chance of Dow 30,000 and a net gain on the year. Buy that to 30%. By contrast, what’s the chance it’s higher than today (it’s close to 25k now)? I’m going to say more like 60%. This rally seems suspicious, but the downside risk is bigger than the upside potential, so things are still probably a favorite to be net positive. There’s just a lot of variance. The more interesting question is Dow 20,000 or Dow 15,000, which I’m going to give maybe 30% and 10% to respectively?""",,"ssc,economics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Dow is above 25,000 on 2021/1/1",70,,"Bucky","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,economics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Dow is above 25,000 on 2021/1/1",70,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,economics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Dow is above 25,000 on 2021/1/1",60,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""I don’t think a 50% chance for the 25-30k range is reasonable. Dow was flirting with 50k before. In the 50% of scenarios where Trump wins re-election (presumably good for stocks) we also presumably have good Covid-19 situations most of the time (also good for stocks) and large cap stocks have overperformed throughout. There’s therefore a good chance of Dow 30,000 and a net gain on the year. Buy that to 30%. By contrast, what’s the chance it’s higher than today (it’s close to 25k now)? I’m going to say more like 60%. This rally seems suspicious, but the downside risk is bigger than the upside potential, so things are still probably a favorite to be net positive. There’s just a lot of variance. The more interesting question is Dow 20,000 or Dow 15,000, which I’m going to give maybe 30% and 10% to respectively?""",,"ssc,economics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Boris still UK PM on 2021/1/1",90,,"Bucky","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,politics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Boris still UK PM on 2021/1/1",90,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,politics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Boris still UK PM on 2021/1/1",80,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""Sell to 80%. Tenures aren’t that long and no one likes him.""",,"ssc,politics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden polling higher than Trump on June 1",70,,"Bucky","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-06-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden polling higher than Trump on June 1",70,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-06-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden polling higher than Trump on June 1",80,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""Buy to 80%. Not much is going to happen between now and then that can plausibly change this, and he’s substantially ahead in polls right now.""",,"ssc,2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-06-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Trump approval rating higher than 43% on June 1",50,,"Bucky","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-06-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Trump approval rating higher than 43% on June 1",30,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-06-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Trump approval rating higher than 43% on June 1",40,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""Buy to 40%. This is one month from now and it’s currently 43.3%. It takes a while after reopenings for things to get worse even if they are going to get worse. So I do think things looking worse is more likely than things looking better, but I’m getting an 0.2% head start (I’m assuming 43.1% counts as higher than 43%) and that counts for a lot given how little things move.""",,"ssc,2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-06-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Democrats keep the House",60,,"Bucky","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Democrats keep the House",70,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Democrats keep the House",70,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""Hold. That’s moderately lower than the odds at PredictIt, and I give that market some credit so I’m not inclined to mess with it, but it seems too high to me. Conditional on Trump winning re-election, it seems hard (although definitely not impossible) to hold the house.""",,"ssc,2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Trump is re-elected President",60,,"Bucky","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Trump is re-elected President",50,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Trump is re-elected President",50,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""Hold. Agree it’s roughly this.""",,"ssc,2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"At least half of states send every voter a mail-in ballot in 2020 presidential election",30,,"Bucky","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"At least half of states send every voter a mail-in ballot in 2020 presidential election",20,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"At least half of states send every voter a mail-in ballot in 2020 presidential election",15,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""Sell a little, maybe to 15%. That seems a bit high but I’m too anchored to know for sure, unfortunately. To get over half we need either red states to do this by choice, letting Democrats get a big boost, or to get this made mandatory via a congressional deal. I don’t see that as likely on either end, but if things are sufficiently bad there might be no choice. Note that there’s a big gap between everyone-gets-a-ballot and everyone-can-request-a-ballot.""",,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, general consensus is that summer made coronavirus significantly less dangerous and there is a catastrophic (50K+ US deaths, or more major lockdowns, after at least a month without these things) second wave in autumn",20,,"Bucky","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, general consensus is that summer made coronavirus significantly less dangerous and there is a catastrophic (50K+ US deaths, or more major lockdowns, after at least a month without these things) second wave in autumn",30,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, general consensus is that summer made coronavirus significantly less dangerous and there is a catastrophic (50K+ US deaths, or more major lockdowns, after at least a month without these things) second wave in autumn",20,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""That’s a very low bar for catastrophic but a high bar for how much things cleared up. It requires things to get fully better, then for them to get worse again, within the year, so I think that’s too many conditional things and I’m selling this down to 20%.""",,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Someone I am close to (housemate or close family member) will get coronavirus by 2021",30,,"Bucky","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Someone I am close to (housemate or close family member) will get coronavirus by 2021",60,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Someone I am close to (housemate or close family member) will get coronavirus by 2021",40,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""Sell to 40%. Secondary household attack rates have not been that high, and Scott presumably has multiple close family members that count for this, so if he was 30% to get infected, the chance of at least one infection in this category would be well above 60%. The reason I go the other way is that there’s sufficient uncertainty in the overall infection rate. If there are worlds where the USA is 3% infected and worlds where it’s 75% infected, then extra exposures add much less in relative terms. In the worlds where infection rates stay low, neither group is at much risk. In worlds where infection rates go high, Scott is likely infected and someone is all but certain to get it. But I don’t think there are enough worlds where the rate is that high contributing to this, and I think that Scott is reasonably likely to stay negative even in worlds with 75% infection rates, so this number likely should be double or more of the previous number.""",,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Republicans keep the Senate",60,,"Bucky","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Republicans keep the Senate",50,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Republicans keep the Senate",60,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""Buy to 60%. I want to be on the other side of PredictIt here. The Senate seems harder than the Presidency.""",,"ssc,2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Democrats nominate Biden, and he remains nominee on Election Day",90,,"Bucky","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Democrats nominate Biden, and he remains nominee on Election Day",90,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Democrats nominate Biden, and he remains nominee on Election Day",90,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""Hold. Biden is trading at 78 right now to be the Democratic nominee. This market is completely insane. You should buy him. Also, Michelle Obama is still at 9% to run, and you should sell that. Hillary Clinton is at 13% to run, and you should sell that too. Also note that Biden is 43% to win the general election and Trump is 50% to win the general, which implies an 86% chance Biden gets the nomination while giving 0% to him withdrawing after nomination and 0% to third parties. Arbitrage ho!""",,"ssc,2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"PredictIt is uncertain (less than 95% sure) who won the presidential election for more than 24 hours after Election Day",20,,"Bucky","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-04T00:00:00.000Z"
"PredictIt is uncertain (less than 95% sure) who won the presidential election for more than 24 hours after Election Day",20,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-04T00:00:00.000Z"
"PredictIt is uncertain (less than 95% sure) who won the presidential election for more than 24 hours after Election Day",10,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""Sell to 10%. This is based on the last few elections being very close. That seems less likely this year. Covid-19 will have big effects. Those effects could go either way, but it’s really hard for there to be serious doubt about who won a day after the polls close. The election has to be close, and there have to be a lot of mail ballots that prevent the count from working, or it be so close that a ‘recount’ actually might turn things around like in 2000, but that requires a very, very narrow window. Alternatively, in theory, there could be accusations of fraud, or Amash could have carried a few states. I still see this as unlikely.""",,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-04T00:00:00.000Z"
"Once we have ""well-trained dog"" level AI, what's the probability of human-level AI within 40 years?",98,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Alexander Kruel","","In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it.","AI,ai-interviews","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T09:02:54.855Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Once we have ""well-trained dog"" level AI, what's the probability of human-level AI within 40 years?",90,,"Richard Carrier","Alexander Kruel","See the prediction source for Richard's full explanation","In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it.","AI,ai-interviews","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Once we have ""well-trained dog"" level AI, what's the probability of human-level AI within 40 years?",95,,"girish","Alexander Kruel","","In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it.","AI,ai-interviews","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-08T06:07:29.832Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"What probability do you assign to the possibility of human extinction as a result of badly done AI?",0,,"Pat Hayes","Alexander Kruel",,"In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it. The formalized question was: P(human extinction | badly done AI) = ?, where 'badly done' = AGI capable of self-modification that is not provably non-dangerous.","AI,ai-interviews","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"What probability do you assign to the possibility of human extinction as a result of badly done AI?",0.001,,"Tim Finin","Alexander Kruel",,"In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it. The formalized question was: P(human extinction | badly done AI) = ?, where 'badly done' = AGI capable of self-modification that is not provably non-dangerous.","AI,ai-interviews","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"What probability do you assign to the possibility of human extinction as a result of badly done AI?",1,,"Brandon Rohrer","Alexander Kruel","Brandon's exact prediction was <1%.","In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it. The formalized question was: P(human extinction | badly done AI) = ?, where 'badly done' = AGI capable of self-modification that is not provably non-dangerous.","AI,ai-interviews","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""By 2020, solar energy will be price-competitive with energy generated from fossil fuels on an unsubsidized basis in most parts of the world."" - Vivek Wadhwa",90,,"Raahul_Kumar","btrettel","Australia, Chile, USA, and other sunny parts of the world.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-25T12:03:29.000Z","2015-08-13T17:43:32.000Z","2021-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"""By 2020, solar energy will be price-competitive with energy generated from fossil fuels on an unsubsidized basis in most parts of the world."" - Vivek Wadhwa",55,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-13T18:52:37.000Z","2015-08-13T17:43:32.000Z","2021-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"""By 2020, solar energy will be price-competitive with energy generated from fossil fuels on an unsubsidized basis in most parts of the world."" - Vivek Wadhwa",30,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-13T17:43:32.000Z","2015-08-13T17:43:32.000Z","2021-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Epic Systems will be the predominant source of EMRs by 2020",55,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-16T04:20:41.000Z","2015-08-16T04:20:40.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Epic Systems will be the predominant source of EMRs by 2020",45,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-20T11:30:29.000Z","2015-08-16T04:20:40.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Epic Systems will be the predominant source of EMRs by 2020",64,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-20T04:00:55.000Z","2015-08-16T04:20:40.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Almost all commercial airplanes will have outlets by 2030",45,,"JoshuaZ","cmessinger",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-17T13:04:05.000Z","2015-08-17T04:56:15.000Z","2030-01-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"Almost all commercial airplanes will have outlets by 2030",25,,"btrettel","cmessinger","I imagine this would require replacing the plane, so I looked into the average age of current planes (~10 yrs for a small sample) and the frequency of replacement (~20-25 yrs). Roughly half of planes would be replaced by then. Outlets are unlikely.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-19T18:35:04.000Z","2015-08-17T04:56:15.000Z","2030-01-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"Almost all commercial airplanes will have outlets by 2030",70,,"cmessinger","cmessinger",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-17T04:56:15.000Z","2015-08-17T04:56:15.000Z","2030-01-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"Almost all commercial airplanes will have outlets by 2030",25,,"JoshuaZ","cmessinger","Reducing estimate per btrettel",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-19T18:39:36.000Z","2015-08-17T04:56:15.000Z","2030-01-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"More than 25% of durable consumer goods will be 3D printed during 2050",25,,"sflicht","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-25T18:01:50.000Z","2015-08-12T23:49:25.000Z","2051-01-02T11:00:00.000Z"
"More than 25% of durable consumer goods will be 3D printed during 2050",15,,"sflicht","btrettel","I suggest looking at the BEA's NIPA table 2.3.5. Spending on goods is $4B. Non-durables (clothes, etc) account for 2/3, and seem hard to 3d print. So you have to believe 75% of durables will be 3d printed -- seems ambitious",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-25T16:30:33.000Z","2015-08-12T23:49:25.000Z","2051-01-02T11:00:00.000Z"
"More than 25% of durable consumer goods will be 3D printed during 2050",22,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-13T02:11:08.000Z","2015-08-12T23:49:25.000Z","2051-01-02T11:00:00.000Z"
"More than 25% of durable consumer goods will be 3D printed during 2050",20,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-12T23:49:25.000Z","2015-08-12T23:49:25.000Z","2051-01-02T11:00:00.000Z"
"Raccoons will show up between 8/20/2015 and 8/27/2015 and destroy more of my water lilies.",40,,"ialdabaoth","ialdabaoth",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-21T02:41:57.000Z","2015-08-21T02:41:57.000Z","2015-08-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"Raccoons will show up between 8/20/2015 and 8/27/2015 and destroy more of my water lilies.",65,,"orthonormal","ialdabaoth",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-21T03:44:20.000Z","2015-08-21T02:41:57.000Z","2015-08-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"Raccoons will show up between 8/20/2015 and 8/27/2015 and destroy more of my water lilies.",50,,"EloiseRosen","ialdabaoth",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-22T17:05:08.000Z","2015-08-21T02:41:57.000Z","2015-08-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"Global Income Inequality as measured by Gini coefficient based on incomes in constant International dollars (which has so far been calculated by Branko Milanovic of the World Bank) will be less in 2017 than what it was in 2008.",99,,"rznsri@gmail.com","rznsri@gmail.com",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-26T18:42:56.000Z","2015-08-26T18:42:56.000Z","2017-12-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Global Income Inequality as measured by Gini coefficient based on incomes in constant International dollars (which has so far been calculated by Branko Milanovic of the World Bank) will be less in 2017 than what it was in 2008.",38,,"themusicgod1","rznsri@gmail.com",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-10T00:36:46.000Z","2015-08-26T18:42:56.000Z","2017-12-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Global Income Inequality as measured by Gini coefficient based on incomes in constant International dollars (which has so far been calculated by Branko Milanovic of the World Bank) will be less in 2017 than what it was in 2008.",40,,"skinnersboxy","rznsri@gmail.com",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-20T23:59:50.000Z","2015-08-26T18:42:56.000Z","2017-12-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"US obesity rate above 31.6% in 2030",50,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-26T22:34:49.000Z","2015-08-26T22:34:49.000Z","2031-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"US obesity rate above 31.6% in 2030",35,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-26T23:18:03.000Z","2015-08-26T22:34:49.000Z","2031-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"US obesity rate above 31.6% in 2030",68,,"themusicgod1","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T02:00:00.000Z","2015-08-26T22:34:49.000Z","2031-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"6th edition of Dungeons and Dragons to come out by January 1, 2030.",55,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-10T00:22:54.000Z","2015-09-06T00:42:25.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"6th edition of Dungeons and Dragons to come out by January 1, 2030.",65,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-06T00:42:25.000Z","2015-09-06T00:42:25.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"6th edition of Dungeons and Dragons to come out by January 1, 2030.",90,,"HonoreDB","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-07T02:20:44.000Z","2015-09-06T00:42:25.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Artificial eyes which allow the user to score 20/20 or better on a visual acuity test will be developed by 2050",20,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-25T00:50:35.000Z","2015-08-25T00:50:35.000Z","2050-01-02T11:00:00.000Z"
"Artificial eyes which allow the user to score 20/20 or better on a visual acuity test will be developed by 2050",60,,"Jayson Virissimo","btrettel","'Comparable' is pretty vague. A more falsifiable claim would be that a human with artificial eyes will score a 20/20 on a vision test before 2050.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-25T23:17:33.000Z","2015-08-25T00:50:35.000Z","2050-01-02T11:00:00.000Z"
"Artificial eyes which allow the user to score 20/20 or better on a visual acuity test will be developed by 2050",58,,"themusicgod1","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-14T06:41:12.000Z","2015-08-25T00:50:35.000Z","2050-01-02T11:00:00.000Z"
"US energy consumption per capita will be below 250 Million Btu at any time from 2016 through 2050",10,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-03T18:37:36.000Z","2015-09-03T18:37:36.000Z","2051-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"US energy consumption per capita will be below 250 Million Btu at any time from 2016 through 2050",25,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-03T18:58:34.000Z","2015-09-03T18:37:36.000Z","2051-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"US energy consumption per capita will be below 250 Million Btu at any time from 2016 through 2050",10,,"danielfilan","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-05T03:09:14.000Z","2015-09-03T18:37:36.000Z","2051-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"The Arctic Ocean will be ice-free before 2073",70,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-07T19:13:27.000Z","2015-09-07T19:13:27.000Z","2073-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"The Arctic Ocean will be ice-free before 2073",25,,"Serge","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-08T12:10:34.000Z","2015-09-07T19:13:27.000Z","2073-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"The Arctic Ocean will be ice-free before 2073",65,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-13T23:07:48.000Z","2015-09-07T19:13:27.000Z","2073-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"By 2040, top athletes in their 50s will match the performance of athletes decades younger using advanced medicine (Daniel Lemire). ",50,,"Wintermute","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-05T07:09:27.000Z","2015-08-04T17:00:39.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2040, top athletes in their 50s will match the performance of athletes decades younger using advanced medicine (Daniel Lemire). ",45,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-10T00:17:38.000Z","2015-08-04T17:00:39.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2040, top athletes in their 50s will match the performance of athletes decades younger using advanced medicine (Daniel Lemire). ",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-04T17:00:40.000Z","2015-08-04T17:00:39.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"SENS Foundation to reach a budget of 10 million dollars a year by 2020 (https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/3fri9a/ask_aubrey_de_grey_anything/ctrjwxm )",8,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T20:36:13.000Z","2015-08-05T17:46:45.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"SENS Foundation to reach a budget of 10 million dollars a year by 2020 (https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/3fri9a/ask_aubrey_de_grey_anything/ctrjwxm )",55,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-05T17:51:56.000Z","2015-08-05T17:46:45.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"SENS Foundation to reach a budget of 10 million dollars a year by 2020 (https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/3fri9a/ask_aubrey_de_grey_anything/ctrjwxm )",44,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-05T17:46:45.000Z","2015-08-05T17:46:45.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Invisibility cloak capable of concealing human sized objects developed before 2050",14,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T19:08:07.830Z","2015-09-24T00:32:24.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Invisibility cloak capable of concealing human sized objects developed before 2050",5,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-24T00:32:24.000Z","2015-09-24T00:32:24.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Invisibility cloak capable of concealing human sized objects developed before 2050",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","btrettel","No present day cloak can manage anything bigger than nanometers.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-24T04:12:03.000Z","2015-09-24T00:32:24.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Invisibility cloak capable of concealing human sized objects developed before 2050",15,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-24T12:06:08.000Z","2015-09-24T00:32:24.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Paraplegia due to spinal cord injury cured in greater than 90% of cases before 2050",5,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-24T17:19:56.000Z","2015-09-24T17:19:56.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Paraplegia due to spinal cord injury cured in greater than 90% of cases before 2050",25,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-24T20:22:45.000Z","2015-09-24T17:19:56.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Paraplegia due to spinal cord injury cured in greater than 90% of cases before 2050",99,,"Raahul_Kumar","btrettel","Stem cells can do it.https://tinyurl.com/qftpy9x But I don't buy brain computer interface, so I disagree on the mechanism.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-25T12:09:51.000Z","2015-09-24T17:19:56.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Existential catastrophe from “other anthropogenic risks” (which includes but is not limited to nanotechnology) by 2120",2,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Toby Ord","",,"nanotechnology,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-19T08:58:23.163Z","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2120-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Existential catastrophe from “other anthropogenic risks” (which includes but is not limited to nanotechnology) by 2120",2,,"Toby Ord","Toby Ord","All core predictions from The Precipice are intended as magnitudal estimates and not explicit guides.",,"nanotechnology,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2120-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Existential catastrophe from nuclear war by 2120",5,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Toby Ord","",,"nuclear,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-19T08:58:11.549Z","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2120-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Existential catastrophe from nuclear war by 2120",0.1,,"Toby Ord","Toby Ord","All core predictions from The Precipice are intended as magnitudal estimates and not explicit guides.",,"nuclear,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2120-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Existential catastrophe from climate change by 2120",0.1,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Toby Ord","",,"climate change,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-19T08:57:41.476Z","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2120-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Existential catastrophe from climate change by 2120",0.1,,"Toby Ord","Toby Ord","All core predictions from The Precipice are intended as magnitudal estimates and not explicit guides.",,"climate change,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2120-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Existential catastrophe from supervolcanic eruption by 2120",0.01,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Toby Ord","",,"natural x risk,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-19T08:57:37.122Z","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2120-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Existential catastrophe from supervolcanic eruption by 2120",0.01,,"Toby Ord","Toby Ord","All core predictions from The Precipice are intended as magnitudal estimates and not explicit guides.",,"natural x risk,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2120-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Andreas will respond to Jennifer's email by 9pm PST today",100,"YES","Andreas S","Amanda N","","","ought,Andreas","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-19T06:32:37.286Z","2020-11-18T17:32:38.901Z","2020-11-19T07:00:00.000Z"
"Andreas will respond to Jennifer's email by 9pm PST today",80,"YES","Andreas S","Amanda N","","","ought,Andreas","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T18:37:38.728Z","2020-11-18T17:32:38.901Z","2020-11-19T07:00:00.000Z"
"Andreas will respond to Jennifer's email by 9pm PST today",85,"YES","Eli Lifland","Amanda N","","","ought,Andreas","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T17:33:43.396Z","2020-11-18T17:32:38.901Z","2020-11-19T07:00:00.000Z"
"_HP MoR_: ch45: The hint is about why the Dementors are out to get Quirrel",20,,"Oscar_Cunningham","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-20T12:19:17.000Z","2012-04-04T23:55:38.000Z","2016-01-01T16:20:01.000Z"
"_HP MoR_: ch45: The hint is about why the Dementors are out to get Quirrel",20,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-04T23:55:38.000Z","2012-04-04T23:55:38.000Z","2016-01-01T16:20:01.000Z"
"The US will run a deficit for 2017 of over 300 billion, with a likely >300 billion deficit in following years.",48,,"themusicgod1","atomicspacemann",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-23T15:42:16.000Z","2017-01-23T13:01:28.000Z","2018-01-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"The US will run a deficit for 2017 of over 300 billion, with a likely >300 billion deficit in following years.",60,,"atomicspacemann","atomicspacemann",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-23T13:01:28.000Z","2017-01-23T13:01:28.000Z","2018-01-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"Noisy intermediate-scale quantum will solve at least one useful problem and/or be economically viable by January 1st, 2030",15,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy",,,"quantum-computers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Noisy intermediate-scale quantum will solve at least one useful problem and/or be economically viable by January 1st, 2030",40,,"Benjamin Rachbach","Mati Roy",,,"quantum-computers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-05T04:54:38.826Z","2020-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will pass the USA and EU in electricity production by 2029. 2nd largest oil importer in 2020.
",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-14T13:39:51.000Z","2015-09-14T13:39:51.000Z","2029-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will pass the USA and EU in electricity production by 2029. 2nd largest oil importer in 2020.
",75,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-14T19:16:41.000Z","2015-09-14T13:39:51.000Z","2029-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"The majority of people will not worship man-made Gods by the year 2030.",3,,"themusicgod1","dragonfly",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-08T21:09:39.000Z","2011-07-04T04:46:09.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The majority of people will not worship man-made Gods by the year 2030.",50,,"dragonfly","dragonfly",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-04T04:46:09.000Z","2011-07-04T04:46:09.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Mexico will pay for (at least 50% of) the cost of the United States southern border wall.",50,,"themusicgod1","regex","@temeraire. I'd suggest that that would count.  Trump has never said that he wouldn't give a carrot to get them to pay for it",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-22T20:04:08.000Z","2017-01-22T06:38:23.000Z","2023-01-23T04:38:23.000Z"
"Mexico will pay for (at least 50% of) the cost of the United States southern border wall.",90,,"regex","regex",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-22T06:38:23.000Z","2017-01-22T06:38:23.000Z","2023-01-23T04:38:23.000Z"
"Harden traded by deadline",35,,"Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland","","","NBA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-16T23:13:28.285Z","2020-11-16T01:42:51.775Z","2021-11-15T05:00:00.000Z"
"Harden traded by deadline",60,,"Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland","","","NBA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T17:24:12.870Z","2020-11-16T01:42:51.775Z","2021-11-15T05:00:00.000Z"
"Harden traded by deadline",70,,"Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland","","","NBA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T04:56:00.704Z","2020-11-16T01:42:51.775Z","2021-11-15T05:00:00.000Z"
"Harden traded by deadline",50,,"Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland","","","NBA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T02:21:00.551Z","2020-11-16T01:42:51.775Z","2021-11-15T05:00:00.000Z"
"Harden traded by deadline",50,,"Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland","","","NBA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T03:15:54.880Z","2020-11-16T01:42:51.775Z","2021-11-15T05:00:00.000Z"
"Harden traded by deadline",76,,"Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland","","","NBA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T01:45:50.561Z","2020-11-16T01:42:51.775Z","2021-11-15T05:00:00.000Z"
"Harden traded by deadline",45,,"Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland","","","NBA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T03:42:30.478Z","2020-11-16T01:42:51.775Z","2021-11-15T05:00:00.000Z"
"Harden traded by deadline",60,,"Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland","","","NBA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-05T16:24:38.172Z","2020-11-16T01:42:51.775Z","2021-11-15T05:00:00.000Z"
"Harden traded by deadline",75,,"Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland","","","NBA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-08T02:38:56.676Z","2020-11-16T01:42:51.775Z","2021-11-15T05:00:00.000Z"
"Harden traded by deadline",78,,"Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland","","","NBA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T22:02:39.013Z","2020-11-16T01:42:51.775Z","2021-11-15T05:00:00.000Z"
"Harden traded by deadline",55,,"Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland","","","NBA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-24T04:12:29.672Z","2020-11-16T01:42:51.775Z","2021-11-15T05:00:00.000Z"
"Harden traded by deadline",20,,"Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland","","","NBA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-16T01:42:51.782Z","2020-11-16T01:42:51.775Z","2021-11-15T05:00:00.000Z"
"Harden traded by deadline",67,,"Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland",,"","NBA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T17:29:22.567Z","2020-11-16T01:42:51.775Z","2021-11-15T05:00:00.000Z"
"Harden traded by deadline",24,,"Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland",,"","NBA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T17:29:20.632Z","2020-11-16T01:42:51.775Z","2021-11-15T05:00:00.000Z"
"Harden traded by deadline",68,,"elifland_test","Eli Lifland",,"","NBA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T17:42:25.546Z","2020-11-16T01:42:51.775Z","2021-11-15T05:00:00.000Z"
"Harden traded by deadline",71,,"elifland_test","Eli Lifland",,"","NBA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T17:42:25.015Z","2020-11-16T01:42:51.775Z","2021-11-15T05:00:00.000Z"
"Harden traded by deadline",73,,"elifland_test","Eli Lifland",,"","NBA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T17:42:24.165Z","2020-11-16T01:42:51.775Z","2021-11-15T05:00:00.000Z"
"Harden traded by deadline",69,,"elifland_test","Eli Lifland",,"","NBA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T17:42:23.627Z","2020-11-16T01:42:51.775Z","2021-11-15T05:00:00.000Z"
"Harden traded by deadline",66,,"elifland_test","Eli Lifland",,"","NBA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T17:42:23.483Z","2020-11-16T01:42:51.775Z","2021-11-15T05:00:00.000Z"
"Harden traded by deadline",60,,"elifland_test","Eli Lifland",,"","NBA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T17:42:23.479Z","2020-11-16T01:42:51.775Z","2021-11-15T05:00:00.000Z"
"Harden traded by deadline",64,,"elifland_test","Eli Lifland",,"","NBA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T17:42:20.154Z","2020-11-16T01:42:51.775Z","2021-11-15T05:00:00.000Z"
"Harden traded by deadline",61,,"elifland_test","Eli Lifland",,"","NBA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T17:42:12.292Z","2020-11-16T01:42:51.775Z","2021-11-15T05:00:00.000Z"
"Harden traded by deadline",67,,"Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland",,"","NBA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T17:27:46.740Z","2020-11-16T01:42:51.775Z","2021-11-15T05:00:00.000Z"
"Harden traded by deadline",63,,"elifland_test","Eli Lifland",,"","NBA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T17:42:11.537Z","2020-11-16T01:42:51.775Z","2021-11-15T05:00:00.000Z"
"Harden traded by deadline",68,,"elifland_test","Eli Lifland",,"","NBA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T17:42:10.768Z","2020-11-16T01:42:51.775Z","2021-11-15T05:00:00.000Z"
"Harden traded by deadline",67,,"elifland_test","Eli Lifland",,"","NBA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T17:42:07.059Z","2020-11-16T01:42:51.775Z","2021-11-15T05:00:00.000Z"
"Harden traded by deadline",71,,"elifland_test","Eli Lifland",,"","NBA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T17:41:55.587Z","2020-11-16T01:42:51.775Z","2021-11-15T05:00:00.000Z"
"Harden traded by deadline",61,,"elifland_test","Eli Lifland",,"","NBA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T17:41:45.075Z","2020-11-16T01:42:51.775Z","2021-11-15T05:00:00.000Z"
"Harden traded by deadline",62,,"elifland_test","Eli Lifland",,"","NBA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T17:41:36.208Z","2020-11-16T01:42:51.775Z","2021-11-15T05:00:00.000Z"
"Free will: Compatibilism",59.1,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: compatibalism"" to the question ""Free will: compatibilism, libertarianism, or no free will?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","PhilPapers,philosophy","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Free will: Compatibilism",50,,"Ethan Perez","PhilPapers","","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","PhilPapers,philosophy","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T22:18:59.018Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will be ranked 7th in 2021, up from 13th in 2014 in the Nature Index.(Qualitative Science ranking)",66,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-25T13:35:12.000Z","2015-12-10T09:11:05.000Z","2021-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will be ranked 7th in 2021, up from 13th in 2014 in the Nature Index.(Qualitative Science ranking)",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-10T09:11:05.000Z","2015-12-10T09:11:05.000Z","2021-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat had 21,269 Web of science papers in 2003 to 45,639 in 2012.Bharat's world share will increase from 3.6% to a lower bound of 4.7%, 66,700 science papers by 2021.
",78,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-16T22:35:54.000Z","2015-12-09T04:50:38.000Z","2021-12-10T07:21:00.000Z"
"Bharat had 21,269 Web of science papers in 2003 to 45,639 in 2012.Bharat's world share will increase from 3.6% to a lower bound of 4.7%, 66,700 science papers by 2021.
",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-09T04:50:38.000Z","2015-12-09T04:50:38.000Z","2021-12-10T07:21:00.000Z"
"Lauri Love outlives the United States of America",0,,"daccount10","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-22T06:44:30.000Z","2017-01-19T18:43:15.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Lauri Love outlives the United States of America",12,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-19T18:43:15.000Z","2017-01-19T18:43:15.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"OPEC basket price on a monthly basis will bottom out at $25 for 2016. 
",80,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-12T23:49:22.000Z","2016-01-12T23:49:22.000Z","2016-12-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"OPEC basket price on a monthly basis will bottom out at $25 for 2016. 
",45,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Raahul_Kumar","Ok, here we go.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-13T06:43:11.000Z","2016-01-12T23:49:22.000Z","2016-12-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"OPEC basket price on a monthly basis will bottom out at $25 for 2016. 
",11,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Raahul_Kumar","Changed my mind.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-13T06:42:21.000Z","2016-01-12T23:49:22.000Z","2016-12-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"OPEC basket price on a monthly basis will bottom out at $25 for 2016. 
",89,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-13T06:41:26.000Z","2016-01-12T23:49:22.000Z","2016-12-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"One of the cyberwarfare viruses (Stuxnet, Flame, ??) will spill out and hit civilian US computers in a widespread way before 2022.",65,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-30T03:17:58.000Z","2012-05-30T03:17:58.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"One of the cyberwarfare viruses (Stuxnet, Flame, ??) will spill out and hit civilian US computers in a widespread way before 2022.",72,,"themusicgod1","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T00:57:27.000Z","2012-05-30T03:17:58.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will reach 1.4 billion mobile connections by 2020, when mobile penetration will reach 100 per cent.",75,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-15T12:07:18.000Z","2015-09-15T07:50:00.000Z","2020-12-25T23:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will reach 1.4 billion mobile connections by 2020, when mobile penetration will reach 100 per cent.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-15T07:50:00.000Z","2015-09-15T07:50:00.000Z","2020-12-25T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will we still be working on IDE or IDE descendant by end of April 2021?",60,,"Andreas S","Andreas S","","","Ought","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T17:18:10.069Z","2020-11-17T17:18:10.059Z","2021-04-30T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we still be working on IDE or IDE descendant by end of April 2021?",30,,"zak","Andreas S","Inducting on past churn rate","","Ought","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T17:32:06.324Z","2020-11-17T17:18:10.059Z","2021-04-30T07:00:00.000Z"
"Negative utilitarianism focused on extreme suffering",90,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik","The percentage in this prediction represents what fraction of moral parliament the predictor would give to this theory. See here for more information: https://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/01/moral-uncertainty-towards-a-solution.html)",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Negative utilitarianism focused on extreme suffering",1,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","The percentage in this prediction represents what fraction of moral parliament the predictor would give to this theory. See here for more information: https://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/01/moral-uncertainty-towards-a-solution.html)",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Negative utilitarianism focused on extreme suffering",1,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","The percentage in this prediction represents what fraction of moral parliament the predictor would give to this theory. See here for more information: https://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/01/moral-uncertainty-towards-a-solution.html). Confidence: Highish",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",0.5,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",5,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","Confidence: Medium",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity's AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)",10,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Humans will go extinct within millions of years for some reason other than AGI",5,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Humans will go extinct within millions of years for some reason other than AGI",10,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Humans will go extinct within millions of years for some reason other than AGI",40,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","Confidence: Medium",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Whole brain emulation will come before de novo AGI, assuming both are possible to build",30,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Whole brain emulation will come before de novo AGI, assuming both are possible to build",40,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","Confidence: Medium",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Whole brain emulation will come before de novo AGI, assuming both are possible to build",65,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The universe/multiverse is finite",37,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The universe/multiverse is finite",70,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The universe/multiverse is finite",70,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","Confidence: Low",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"At bottom, physics is discrete/digital rather than continuous",40,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"At bottom, physics is discrete/digital rather than continuous",15,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","Confidence: Low",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Modal realism",40,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Modal realism",1,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Modal realism",20,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","Confidence: Lowish",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Faster economic growth will cause net suffering in the far future",47,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Faster economic growth will cause net suffering in the far future",55,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Faster economic growth will cause net suffering in the far future",50,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","Confidence: Medium",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)",50,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)",15,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","Confidence: Medium",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)",10,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Faster technological innovation increases net suffering in the far future",50,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Faster technological innovation increases net suffering in the far future",50,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","Confidence: Medium",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Faster technological innovation increases net suffering in the far future",55,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Climate change will cause more suffering than it prevents",50,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Climate change will cause more suffering than it prevents",55,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","Confidence: Lowish",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Climate change will cause more suffering than it prevents",50,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Human-controlled AGI in expectation would result in less suffering than uncontrolled",52,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Human-controlled AGI in expectation would result in less suffering than uncontrolled",5,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","Confidence: Highish (as judged by the beliefs I would hold if I thought about the problem for another 10 years)",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Human-controlled AGI in expectation would result in less suffering than uncontrolled",5,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Electing more liberal politicians reduces net suffering in the far future",52,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Electing more liberal politicians reduces net suffering in the far future",55,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","Confidence: Lowish",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Electing more liberal politicians reduces net suffering in the far future",60,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2100, if biological humans still exist, most of them will regard factory farming as a great evil of the past",60,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2100, if biological humans still exist, most of them will regard factory farming as a great evil of the past",70,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","Confidence: Medium",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2100, if biological humans still exist, most of them will regard factory farming as a great evil of the past",10,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",62,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",35,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","Confidence: Lowish",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all",60,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015",67,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015",55,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","Confidence: Medium",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015",70,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"A258107 to be proven to be finite by January 1, 2045. ",55,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-10T18:30:11.000Z","2015-08-10T18:30:11.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A258107 to be proven to be finite by January 1, 2045. ",49,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T20:09:35.813Z","2015-08-10T18:30:11.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A258107 to be proven to be finite by January 1, 2045. ",50,,"EloiseRosen","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-12T16:28:08.000Z","2015-08-10T18:30:11.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The kind of suffering that matters most is preference frustration",30,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik","The percentage in this prediction represents what fraction of moral parliament the predictor would give to this theory. See here for more information: https://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/01/moral-uncertainty-towards-a-solution.html)",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The kind of suffering that matters most is preference frustration",3,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","The percentage in this prediction represents what fraction of moral parliament the predictor would give to this theory. See here for more information: https://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/01/moral-uncertainty-towards-a-solution.html). Confidence: High",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The kind of suffering that matters most is preference frustration",1,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","The percentage in this prediction represents what fraction of moral parliament the predictor would give to this theory. See here for more information: https://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/01/moral-uncertainty-towards-a-solution.html)",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The kind of suffering that matters most is hedonic experience",70,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik","The percentage in this prediction represents what fraction of moral parliament the predictor would give to this theory. See here for more information: https://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/01/moral-uncertainty-towards-a-solution.html)",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The kind of suffering that matters most is hedonic experience",95,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","The percentage in this prediction represents what fraction of moral parliament the predictor would give to this theory. See here for more information: https://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/01/moral-uncertainty-towards-a-solution.html). Confidence: High",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The kind of suffering that matters most is hedonic experience",99,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","The percentage in this prediction represents what fraction of moral parliament the predictor would give to this theory. See here for more information: https://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/01/moral-uncertainty-towards-a-solution.html)",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Ethical pluralism for other values (happiness, love, friendship, knowledge, accomplishment, diversity, paperclips, and other things that agents care about)",10,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik","The percentage in this prediction represents what fraction of moral parliament the predictor would give to this theory. See here for more information: https://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/01/moral-uncertainty-towards-a-solution.html)",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Ethical pluralism for other values (happiness, love, friendship, knowledge, accomplishment, diversity, paperclips, and other things that agents care about)",0,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","The percentage in this prediction represents what fraction of moral parliament the predictor would give to this theory. See here for more information: https://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/01/moral-uncertainty-towards-a-solution.html). Confidence: High",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Ethical pluralism for other values (happiness, love, friendship, knowledge, accomplishment, diversity, paperclips, and other things that agents care about)",0.01,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","The percentage in this prediction represents what fraction of moral parliament the predictor would give to this theory. See here for more information: https://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/01/moral-uncertainty-towards-a-solution.html)",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Wild-animal suffering will be a mainstream moral issue by 2100, conditional on biological humans still existing",15,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Wild-animal suffering will be a mainstream moral issue by 2100, conditional on biological humans still existing",15,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","Confidence: Medium",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Wild-animal suffering will be a mainstream moral issue by 2100, conditional on biological humans still existing",8,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"A full world government will develop before human-level AGI",25,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"A full world government will develop before human-level AGI",10,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","Confidence: Highish",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"A full world government will develop before human-level AGI",15,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics (or close kin)",40,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics (or close kin)",55,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","Confidence: Lowish",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics (or close kin)",70,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on a government building the first human-level AGI, it will be the USA (rather than China, etc.)",50,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on a government building the first human-level AGI, it will be the USA (rather than China, etc.)",45,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","Confidence: Medium",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on a government building the first human-level AGI, it will be the USA (rather than China, etc.)",65,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Crop cultivation prevents net suffering",50,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Crop cultivation prevents net suffering",50,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","Confidence: Medium",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Crop cultivation prevents net suffering",50,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Cognitive closure of some philosophical problems",50,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Cognitive closure of some philosophical problems",80,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Cognitive closure of some philosophical problems",80,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","Confidence: Medium",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The effective-altruism movement, all things considered, reduces rather than increases total suffering in the far future (not counting happiness)a",50,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The effective-altruism movement, all things considered, reduces rather than increases total suffering in the far future (not counting happiness)a",40,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The effective-altruism movement, all things considered, reduces rather than increases total suffering in the far future (not counting happiness)a",35,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","Confidence: Medium",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Rare Earth explanation of Fermi Paradox",67,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Rare Earth explanation of Fermi Paradox",25,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Alabama in 2020",1.6,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Alabama in 2020",2.97,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins California in 2020",99.79,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins California in 2020",91.35,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"The catastrophic convergence conjecture is true. That is, unaligned goals tend to have catastrophe-inducing optimal policies because of power-seeking incentives.",65,,"ejacob","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T00:04:08.339Z","2021-01-09T23:38:02.722Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The catastrophic convergence conjecture is true. That is, unaligned goals tend to have catastrophe-inducing optimal policies because of power-seeking incentives.",70,,"TurnTrout","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T03:36:33.670Z","2021-01-09T23:38:02.722Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The 2015 budget has 60 GW of wind power by 2022. Bharat will then place 2nd in the world from 5th.

Source: Global Wind Energy Council
http://www.gwec.net/",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-15T07:51:27.000Z","2015-09-15T07:51:27.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"The 2015 budget has 60 GW of wind power by 2022. Bharat will then place 2nd in the world from 5th.

Source: Global Wind Energy Council
http://www.gwec.net/",55,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-15T12:07:39.000Z","2015-09-15T07:51:27.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Connecticut in 2020",99.9,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Connecticut in 2020",92.16,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"At least one new engineer working at Ought by end of April 2021?",70,,"Andreas S","Andreas S","","","Ought","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T07:53:55.019Z","2020-11-17T07:53:55.012Z","2021-04-30T07:00:00.000Z"
"At least one new engineer working at Ought by end of April 2021?",50,,"zak","Andreas S","Outside view given prev 2.5 yrs of hiring","","Ought","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T17:32:53.963Z","2020-11-17T07:53:55.012Z","2021-04-30T07:00:00.000Z"
"Soft AGI takeoff",70,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Soft AGI takeoff",60,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","Confidence: Lowish",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Soft AGI takeoff",55,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Human-inspired colonization of space will cause more suffering than it prevents if it happens",72,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Human-inspired colonization of space will cause more suffering than it prevents if it happens",10,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","Confidence: Highish",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Human-inspired colonization of space will cause more suffering than it prevents if it happens",1,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Moral anti-realism",98,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Moral anti-realism",30,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","Confidence: Medium",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Moral anti-realism",20,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Compatibilism on free will",98,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Compatibilism on free will",10,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","Confidence: Highish",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Compatibilism on free will",5,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""Abstract objects: Platonism or nominalism?"" Answer: nominalism",99,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""Abstract objects: Platonism or nominalism?"" Answer: nominalism",90,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""Abstract objects: Platonism or nominalism?"" Answer: nominalism",95,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","Confidence: Highish",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is possible in principle",98,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is possible in principle",95,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","Confidence: Highish",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is possible in principle",95,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"“Aesthetic value: objective or subjective?” Answer: subjective",99.5,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"“Aesthetic value: objective or subjective?” Answer: subjective",100,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","Confidence: High",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"“Aesthetic value: objective or subjective?” Answer: subjective",99.9,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins DC in 2020",100,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins DC in 2020",97.03,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Due to Bharat's industrialization prices will boom in an exact replay of what happened in 2001-11 commodity bull market driven by Zhongguo.

Commodities prices, as measured by the Continuous Commodity Index (CCI), will rise at least 275% since the start",25,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-15T12:08:11.000Z","2015-09-15T08:45:02.000Z","2026-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Due to Bharat's industrialization prices will boom in an exact replay of what happened in 2001-11 commodity bull market driven by Zhongguo.

Commodities prices, as measured by the Continuous Commodity Index (CCI), will rise at least 275% since the start",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-15T08:45:02.000Z","2015-09-15T08:45:02.000Z","2026-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Delaware in 2020",100,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Delaware in 2020",92.16,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Florida in 2020",67.99,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Florida in 2020",40.95,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Illinois in 2020",99.92,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Illinois in 2020",92.16,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Maryland in 2020",99.94,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Maryland in 2020",93.14,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"God: Atheism",90,,"Ethan Perez","PhilPapers","","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T22:52:13.447Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"God: Atheism",95,,"Ethan Perez","PhilPapers","","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T22:24:39.377Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"God: Atheism",72.8,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: atheism"" to the question ""God: theism or atheism?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"God: Atheism",90,,"Ethan Perez","PhilPapers","","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T22:14:24.188Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I will be accepted for an interview at that type foundry, after having written, just for my application, a font previewing app with the tools they use.",70,,"danielfilan","Rory O’Kane",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-09T21:23:26.000Z","2016-01-09T13:58:54.000Z","2016-01-30T13:58:54.000Z"
"I will be accepted for an interview at that type foundry, after having written, just for my application, a font previewing app with the tools they use.",85,,"Rory O’Kane","Rory O’Kane",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-09T13:58:54.000Z","2016-01-09T13:58:54.000Z","2016-01-30T13:58:54.000Z"
"More than three of the families / couples represented in this group will live in the same city for more than 3 months at any point between now and 2030",15,,"jungwon","jungwon","","","jbfriends","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T18:08:29.092Z","2020-12-01T17:11:08.661Z","2031-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"More than three of the families / couples represented in this group will live in the same city for more than 3 months at any point between now and 2030",15,,"v","jungwon","betting on JB's view","","jbfriends","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-06T19:40:15.382Z","2020-12-01T17:11:08.661Z","2031-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"PG will homeschool his kids for at least 1 year",25,,"jungwon","jungwon","","","jbfriends","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T18:08:36.177Z","2020-12-01T17:15:31.571Z","2031-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"PG will homeschool his kids for at least 1 year",55,,"v","jungwon","(cumulatively and/or for some reasonable threshold of the word 'homeschool', and for at least 1 kid not necessarily all kids)","","jbfriends","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-06T19:37:29.298Z","2020-12-01T17:15:31.571Z","2031-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"Humans will land on the moon between 2028 and 2033.",10,,"splorridge","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-01T14:33:39.000Z","2018-09-25T15:43:12.000Z","2034-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humans will land on the moon between 2028 and 2033.",70,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-25T15:43:12.000Z","2018-09-25T15:43:12.000Z","2034-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humans will land on the moon between 2028 and 2033.",40,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-05T21:12:59.383Z","2018-09-25T15:43:12.000Z","2034-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one Apollo astronaut will see man land on Mars",55,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T12:01:44.000Z","2015-07-13T12:01:44.000Z","2035-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one Apollo astronaut will see man land on Mars",20,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-06T13:23:31.000Z","2015-07-13T12:01:44.000Z","2035-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Before the end of May 2021, what percentage of questions on Elicit Binary will resolve positive?",35,,"Andreas S","Linch","","","Meta,Elicit","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T05:32:21.211Z","2020-11-13T22:13:52.067Z","2021-06-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Before the end of May 2021, what percentage of questions on Elicit Binary will resolve positive?",30,,"Linch","Linch","","","Meta,Elicit","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T22:13:52.075Z","2020-11-13T22:13:52.067Z","2021-06-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Type-A physicalism regarding consciousness",69,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Type-A physicalism regarding consciousness",10,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","Confidence: Medium",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Type-A physicalism regarding consciousness",25,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Eternalism on philosophy of time",70,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Eternalism on philosophy of time",95,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","Confidence: Medium",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Eternalism on philosophy of time",75,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort",72,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort",60,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","Confidence: Medium",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort",70,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Humans will eventually build human-level AGI conditional on no other major intervening disruptions to civilization as we know it",80,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Humans will eventually build human-level AGI conditional on no other major intervening disruptions to civilization as we know it",90,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik",,,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Humans will eventually build human-level AGI conditional on no other major intervening disruptions to civilization as we know it",85,,"Pablo","Brian Tomasik","Confidence: Highish",,"what I believe","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-08T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an commercially available way to auto-scan all your old notebooks into your hard drives by 2020",45,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T06:24:02.000Z","2015-07-28T06:24:02.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be an commercially available way to auto-scan all your old notebooks into your hard drives by 2020",90,,"David","InquilineKea","Not sure how this is meant to be judged. I think there are various ways to pay people to do this for you already.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T11:49:39.000Z","2015-07-28T06:24:02.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Autonomous cars will comprise 10% of greater of total KM's traveled on Australian roads by end of 2025.",42,,"JoshuaZ","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-07T00:54:54.000Z","2016-01-07T00:50:48.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Autonomous cars will comprise 10% of greater of total KM's traveled on Australian roads by end of 2025.",35,,"PipFoweraker","PipFoweraker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-07T00:50:48.000Z","2016-01-07T00:50:48.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I vote Democrat for President",90,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""Buy to 90%. Scott explained this being so low on Tumblr, but I’m not buying it given his general outlook. He’s not going to vote for Amash. He’s essentially 0% to vote Trump. The ‘no vote at all’ isn’t 0%, but I think he cares too much for it to be very high, he believes in voting. Biden is the obviously correct choice for Scott given Scott’s preferences in outcomes, and not voting for him because of an accusation when he’s running against Donald f***** Trump? Yeah, I don’t buy it.""",,"ssc,politics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"I vote Democrat for President",80,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,politics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Fraction of U.S GDP devoted to computer and electronics hardware will be higher than 5%(from 1.5% now) by 2025 according to BEA data",10,,"ArturoGoosnargh","ArturoGoosnargh",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-17T19:18:23.000Z","2015-09-17T19:18:23.000Z","2025-01-24T12:00:00.000Z"
"Fraction of U.S GDP devoted to computer and electronics hardware will be higher than 5%(from 1.5% now) by 2025 according to BEA data",25,,"JoshuaZ","ArturoGoosnargh",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-17T20:29:14.000Z","2015-09-17T19:18:23.000Z","2025-01-24T12:00:00.000Z"
"I think I will get an A in geosci",85,,"EloiseRosen","bruh",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-09T22:06:09.000Z","2015-11-09T01:40:21.000Z","2015-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"I think I will get an A in geosci",95,,"bruh","bruh",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-09T01:40:21.000Z","2015-11-09T01:40:21.000Z","2015-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Virtual Reality used by <1% of US+Can population",5,,"Afforess","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-20T17:58:23.000Z","2017-01-16T03:40:22.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Virtual Reality used by <1% of US+Can population",52,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-16T03:40:22.000Z","2017-01-16T03:40:22.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Somebody gets themselves killed, augmented reality to blame",53,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-16T03:38:40.000Z","2017-01-16T03:38:39.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Somebody gets themselves killed, augmented reality to blame",70,,"Ben Doherty","themusicgod1","People die at such an alarming rate when you multiple the probability by the shear number of then!",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-22T19:12:27.000Z","2017-01-16T03:38:39.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins West Virginia in 2020",0.84,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins West Virginia in 2020",2.97,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"First bipedal robots used in police active patrol duty",1,,"penten","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-16T08:50:58.000Z","2017-01-16T03:45:06.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"First bipedal robots used in police active patrol duty",6,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-16T03:45:06.000Z","2017-01-16T03:45:06.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will we run a Rapid Resolution Week 2?",65,,"Andreas S","Amanda N","","","users-Nov","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T05:29:56.694Z","2020-11-14T00:24:20.945Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we run a Rapid Resolution Week 2?",50,,"Andreas S","Amanda N","","","users-Nov","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-14T00:25:37.720Z","2020-11-14T00:24:20.945Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will we run a Rapid Resolution Week 2?",65,,"Amanda N","Amanda N","","","users-Nov","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-14T00:26:50.411Z","2020-11-14T00:24:20.945Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will eliminate absolute poverty(WB:1.90 USD definition) by 2024",52,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-02T11:48:51.000Z","2015-11-02T11:23:14.000Z","2024-11-03T07:24:00.000Z"
"Bharat will eliminate absolute poverty(WB:1.90 USD definition) by 2024",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-02T11:23:14.000Z","2015-11-02T11:23:14.000Z","2024-11-03T07:24:00.000Z"
"Even if net neutrality regulations are retained through Pai's chair, they will be enforced less than when enacted, and ISPs will continue most noncompliant practices unchallenged",85,,"erin","erin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-20T00:24:54.000Z","2017-05-20T00:24:54.000Z","2019-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Even if net neutrality regulations are retained through Pai's chair, they will be enforced less than when enacted, and ISPs will continue most noncompliant practices unchallenged",68,,"themusicgod1","erin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-20T01:05:45.000Z","2017-05-20T00:24:54.000Z","2019-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on me asking about Reade on SSC survey, average survey-taker’s credence in her accusation is greater than 75%",40,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""I think that given the nature of who is being asked, >50% isn’t that high a bar, and I think that Scott asks mainly in the worlds where we should expect a >50% answer. And I think all the anti-Biden people on both sides will answer super high regardless of the strength of the evidence and the pro-Biden people will evaluate the evidence, so I’m going to buy to 80%, and buy the >75% up to 40% for similar reasons, again without having looked at the evidence.""",,"ssc,politics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on me asking about Reade on SSC survey, average survey-taker’s credence in her accusation is greater than 75%",10,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,politics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Balance of evidence available on Election Day supports (as per my opinion) Tara Reade accusation",90,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""Hold, based on Scott being able to predict Scott’s evaluations of such evidence better than I can, and not expecting things to change much.""",,"ssc,politics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Balance of evidence available on Election Day supports (as per my opinion) Tara Reade accusation",90,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,politics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Humboldt Fog will be super popular (written up as super trendy in a *mainstream* publication) at some point before 2020",8,,"EloiseRosen","Benquo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-15T03:24:36.000Z","2015-02-14T20:14:44.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humboldt Fog will be super popular (written up as super trendy in a *mainstream* publication) at some point before 2020",5,,"Benquo","Benquo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-14T20:14:44.000Z","2015-02-14T20:14:44.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"I personally am back to working not-at-home by 2021",80,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""Sell to 80%. There’s a 10% chance by Scott’s own prediction that there’s a lockdown preventing this (if it lasts until November the chance it lasts through December is very high, as it’s only getting colder at that point and absent a very specific vaccine timeline the length should follow Lindy rules). I’d assume there are plenty of worlds where restaurants are open but Scott keeps working from home. That’s the world I think we should be in now, as I think reopening restaurants at reduced capacity is probably net positive.""",,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I personally am back to working not-at-home by 2021",90,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,covid-19","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Harry Potter is the Master of Death, in the sense of magically owning all three Deathly Hallows.",75,,"linkhyrule5","linkhyrule5",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-21T06:12:50.000Z","2015-02-21T06:12:50.000Z","2015-03-07T15:00:00.000Z"
"Harry Potter is the Master of Death, in the sense of magically owning all three Deathly Hallows.",1,,"tedks","linkhyrule5",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-02T03:25:59.000Z","2015-02-21T06:12:50.000Z","2015-03-07T15:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Wyoming in 2020",2.94,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Wyoming in 2020",0.18,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Brasil will reduce 37% of its greenhouse gas emissions by 2025 from 2005 levels--Dilma Rouseff",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-17T10:36:22.000Z","2015-10-17T10:36:22.000Z","2026-01-01T10:00:00.000Z"
"Brasil will reduce 37% of its greenhouse gas emissions by 2025 from 2005 levels--Dilma Rouseff",42,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-17T12:50:46.000Z","2015-10-17T10:36:22.000Z","2026-01-01T10:00:00.000Z"
"If i study hard, i could be the best !",50,,"themusicgod1","nam2001",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T04:13:06.000Z","2011-05-11T07:23:15.000Z","2021-05-11T07:23:15.000Z"
"If i study hard, i could be the best !",50,,"nam2001","nam2001",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-05-11T07:23:16.000Z","2011-05-11T07:23:15.000Z","2021-05-11T07:23:15.000Z"
"Informal ""Du"" will be the most common form of address in everyday business transactions in Germany by 2050",70,,"jasticE","jasticE",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-03T11:18:01.000Z","2015-03-03T11:18:00.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Informal ""Du"" will be the most common form of address in everyday business transactions in Germany by 2050",25,,"Chri","jasticE",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-03T11:22:46.000Z","2015-03-03T11:18:00.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of the century, one or more countries bordering the Persian Gulf (or their successor national or subnational territories) will have a permanent human population of zero. ",9,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight","Good point, updating based on that. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-28T01:13:28.000Z","2015-10-27T03:31:22.000Z","2116-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of the century, one or more countries bordering the Persian Gulf (or their successor national or subnational territories) will have a permanent human population of zero. ",6,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight","Should have end-date fixed. I presume this is prediction is primarily in response to the recent paper about increased temperatures there, but note that many other scenarios could lead to this result, such as severe use of WMDs. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-27T14:24:08.000Z","2015-10-27T03:31:22.000Z","2116-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of the century, one or more countries bordering the Persian Gulf (or their successor national or subnational territories) will have a permanent human population of zero. ",30,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-27T03:31:22.000Z","2015-10-27T03:31:22.000Z","2116-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Newport High School will have an active shooter situation by January 1st, 2021",9,,"themusicgod1","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-15T19:10:43.000Z","2017-01-15T09:59:08.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Newport High School will have an active shooter situation by January 1st, 2021",2,,"playablecharacter","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-15T09:59:08.000Z","2017-01-15T09:59:08.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Someone will get a 500$ award from Chris Hallquist for convincing him to cancel his cryonics submission",20,,"Nithi","itaibn",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-23T02:14:02.000Z","2014-01-11T17:07:26.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Someone will get a 500$ award from Chris Hallquist for convincing him to cancel his cryonics submission",20,,"itaibn","itaibn",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-11T17:07:26.000Z","2014-01-11T17:07:26.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Someone will get a 500$ award from Chris Hallquist for convincing him to cancel his cryonics submission",5,,"itaibn","itaibn",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-07T22:49:40.000Z","2014-01-11T17:07:26.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Unique games conjecture resolved by 2050. ",75,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-10T14:53:17.000Z","2015-03-10T14:53:17.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Unique games conjecture resolved by 2050. ",80,,"Unknowns","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-10T16:50:02.000Z","2015-03-10T14:53:17.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Borders of Mali modified in the next ten years",10,,"Leo","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-08-27T19:36:59.000Z","2012-03-26T23:36:15.000Z","2022-03-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"Borders of Mali modified in the next ten years",50,,"themusicgod1","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T00:33:45.000Z","2012-03-26T23:36:15.000Z","2022-03-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"Borders of Mali modified in the next ten years",30,,"Leo","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-26T23:36:15.000Z","2012-03-26T23:36:15.000Z","2022-03-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"Borders of Mali modified in the next ten years",20,,"Leo","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-07T17:51:24.000Z","2012-03-26T23:36:15.000Z","2022-03-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"Borders of Mali modified in the next ten years",65,,"Leo","Leo","Any UN member recognizing Azawad makes this true",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-24T03:10:27.000Z","2012-03-26T23:36:15.000Z","2022-03-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"Borders of Mali modified in the next ten years",50,,"Leo","Leo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-02T19:21:21.000Z","2012-03-26T23:36:15.000Z","2022-03-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within 50 years lesions or similar cerebral damaging will be discovered for Homo Sapiens as a result of recreational doses of NMDA antagonists.",75,,"jesselevine","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-09T02:14:40.000Z","2015-04-09T02:14:40.000Z","2065-04-09T02:14:39.000Z"
"Within 50 years lesions or similar cerebral damaging will be discovered for Homo Sapiens as a result of recreational doses of NMDA antagonists.",55,,"JoshuaZ","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-25T02:14:02.000Z","2015-04-09T02:14:40.000Z","2065-04-09T02:14:39.000Z"
"Schizophrenia will popularly be considered a part of the Autism spectrum, supporting imprinted brain theory.",25,,"JoshuaZ","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-09T02:51:31.000Z","2015-04-09T02:23:06.000Z","2035-04-09T02:23:06.000Z"
"Schizophrenia will popularly be considered a part of the Autism spectrum, supporting imprinted brain theory.",50,,"jesselevine","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-09T02:23:06.000Z","2015-04-09T02:23:06.000Z","2035-04-09T02:23:06.000Z"
"I will continue to use (in any form, on any machine) tmux in 2025",20,,"playablecharacter","Issa Rice",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-08T23:32:34.000Z","2017-01-08T23:31:32.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will continue to use (in any form, on any machine) tmux in 2025",75,,"Issa Rice","Issa Rice",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-08T23:31:32.000Z","2017-01-08T23:31:32.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will work for Unity Technologies within a year of graduation from University of Washington",25,,"npcuck","npcuck",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-06T07:38:27.000Z","2017-01-06T07:38:27.000Z","2019-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will work for Unity Technologies within a year of graduation from University of Washington",47,,"themusicgod1","npcuck",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-06T22:17:55.000Z","2017-01-06T07:38:27.000Z","2019-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will suicide before 2021",49,,"themusicgod1","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-07T00:36:18.000Z","2017-01-05T23:06:18.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will suicide before 2021",6,,"playablecharacter","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-05T23:06:18.000Z","2017-01-05T23:06:18.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will vote Democrat for the first time in my life in the 2024 US Presidential Election",49,,"themusicgod1","Dapple",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-07T00:39:03.000Z","2017-01-05T22:03:37.000Z","2024-11-08T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will vote Democrat for the first time in my life in the 2024 US Presidential Election",10,,"Dapple","Dapple",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-06-30T02:49:44.673Z","2017-01-05T22:03:37.000Z","2024-11-08T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will vote Democrat for the first time in my life in the 2024 US Presidential Election",20,,"Dapple","Dapple",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-07-24T07:35:37.000Z","2017-01-05T22:03:37.000Z","2024-11-08T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will vote Democrat for the first time in my life in the 2024 US Presidential Election",25,,"Dapple","Dapple",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-05T22:03:37.000Z","2017-01-05T22:03:37.000Z","2024-11-08T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be no war involving more than one of the US, Russia, China, or any member of the EU on different sides started before 2020 (Measure: Total eventual casualties above 100) ",11,,"themusicgod1","davidmanheim",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-03T16:54:49.000Z","2017-01-03T15:20:49.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be no war involving more than one of the US, Russia, China, or any member of the EU on different sides started before 2020 (Measure: Total eventual casualties above 100) ",95,,"davidmanheim","davidmanheim",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-03T15:20:49.000Z","2017-01-03T15:20:49.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Resolution 2: I will write the majority of a VisionofEarth.org article + Update my bio ",25,,"atomicspacemann","themusicgod1","First step is picking a topic, and selecting an editor/assistant.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-23T13:34:32.000Z","2017-01-01T17:17:06.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Resolution 2: I will write the majority of a VisionofEarth.org article + Update my bio ",17,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-01T17:17:06.000Z","2017-01-01T17:17:06.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""SaskPower plans to reduce emissions by 40 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030. By that year, it wants to have added an additional 1,600 megawatts of wind power over 2017 levels.""",9,,"themusicgod1","saskboy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-31T22:30:58.000Z","2017-08-31T19:53:59.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""SaskPower plans to reduce emissions by 40 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030. By that year, it wants to have added an additional 1,600 megawatts of wind power over 2017 levels.""",66,,"saskboy","saskboy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-31T19:53:59.000Z","2017-08-31T19:53:59.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 3.7% GDP growth rate for South Africa in 2015- 2024.",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-04T02:43:43.000Z","2016-01-04T02:43:43.000Z","2024-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 3.7% GDP growth rate for South Africa in 2015- 2024.",10,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Raahul_Kumar","Doubtful.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-10T04:44:32.000Z","2016-01-04T02:43:43.000Z","2024-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Next US recession to be 66% or less than the drop in GDP of the great recession, to take place no earlier than 2018.",75,,"nazgul76","nazgul76",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-18T07:58:35.000Z","2015-03-18T07:58:35.000Z","2025-03-18T12:00:00.000Z"
"Next US recession to be 66% or less than the drop in GDP of the great recession, to take place no earlier than 2018.",25,,"JoshuaZ","nazgul76",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-18T11:31:06.000Z","2015-03-18T07:58:35.000Z","2025-03-18T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Alpha Pundit Challenge, or something like it, will have converted five or more vague predictions from pundits into numerical predictions, beyond those described in Tetlock, Alpha Pundit Challenge Proposal, by December 31, 2016",49,,"themusicgod1","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-31T02:21:26.000Z","2017-08-30T06:37:56.000Z","2019-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Alpha Pundit Challenge, or something like it, will have converted five or more vague predictions from pundits into numerical predictions, beyond those described in Tetlock, Alpha Pundit Challenge Proposal, by December 31, 2016",50,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-30T06:37:56.000Z","2017-08-30T06:37:56.000Z","2019-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Acting will be correlated with my spouse's perception of a positive relationship. ",60,,"EloiseRosen","memoriesofbutter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-19T20:06:45.000Z","2015-10-16T21:04:03.000Z","2016-07-16T22:00:00.000Z"
"Acting will be correlated with my spouse's perception of a positive relationship. ",63,,"memoriesofbutter","memoriesofbutter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-16T21:04:03.000Z","2015-10-16T21:04:03.000Z","2016-07-16T22:00:00.000Z"
"I will vote Democrat for the first time in my life in the 2020 US Presidential Election",49,,"themusicgod1","Dapple",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-07T00:38:57.000Z","2017-01-05T22:05:56.000Z","2020-11-08T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will vote Democrat for the first time in my life in the 2020 US Presidential Election",3,,"Dapple","Dapple",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-05T22:05:56.000Z","2017-01-05T22:05:56.000Z","2020-11-08T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on me asking about Reade on SSC survey, average survey-taker’s credence in her accusation is greater than credence in Kavanaugh accusation asked in the same format",40,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""On the greater than Kavanaugh question, it’s really weird. I think people have a lot of cognitive dissonance, so asking both questions together will cause weird things to happen and people will remember the Kavanaugh situation in light of the current one and not give the same answers they’d have given before. So here I have to model who is answering, what their politics are, and lots of other things. 40% is probably fine, maybe a little low? Because, again, I expect asymmetric partisan adjustments.""",,"ssc,politics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on me asking about Reade on SSC survey, average survey-taker’s credence in her accusation is greater than credence in Kavanaugh accusation asked in the same format",40,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,politics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on me asking about Reade on SSC survey, average survey-taker’s credence in her accusation is greater than 50%",80,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""I think that given the nature of who is being asked, >50% isn’t that high a bar, and I think that Scott asks mainly in the worlds where we should expect a >50% answer. And I think all the anti-Biden people on both sides will answer super high regardless of the strength of the evidence and the pro-Biden people will evaluate the evidence, so I’m going to buy to 80%, and buy the >75% up to 40% for similar reasons, again without having looked at the evidence.""",,"ssc,politics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on me asking about Reade on SSC survey, average survey-taker’s credence in her accusation is greater than 50%",70,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,politics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Invisible clothes will be real in 5OO years later",53,,"themusicgod1","nam2001",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T03:29:35.000Z","2011-04-16T11:04:20.000Z","2511-04-16T11:04:20.000Z"
"Invisible clothes will be real in 5OO years later",80,,"nam2001","nam2001",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-04-16T11:04:20.000Z","2011-04-16T11:04:20.000Z","2511-04-16T11:04:20.000Z"
"There will be a Olympic competition for Robot simulated human?",3,,"themusicgod1","nam2001",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T03:29:20.000Z","2011-04-16T10:48:33.000Z","2021-04-16T10:48:33.000Z"
"There will be a Olympic competition for Robot simulated human?",50,,"nam2001","nam2001",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-04-16T10:48:33.000Z","2011-04-16T10:48:33.000Z","2021-04-16T10:48:33.000Z"
"PC at home will disappear in future",53,,"themusicgod1","nam2001",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T03:27:43.000Z","2011-04-16T10:29:37.000Z","2021-04-16T10:29:37.000Z"
"PC at home will disappear in future",50,,"nam2001","nam2001",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-04-16T10:29:37.000Z","2011-04-16T10:29:37.000Z","2021-04-16T10:29:37.000Z"
"Dire Wolves to be resurrected by 2100",15,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-06T20:35:32.000Z","2015-08-06T06:50:32.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Dire Wolves to be resurrected by 2100",8,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-06T06:50:32.000Z","2015-08-06T06:50:32.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"President Jerry Brown",0,,"Baeboo","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-14T06:58:47.000Z","2016-12-21T02:18:34.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"President Jerry Brown",0,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-21T02:18:34.000Z","2016-12-21T02:18:34.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Shia Muslim ritual of tatbir will no longer be widely practiced in 40 years.",49,,"themusicgod1","VK7K7vg",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-18T07:22:20.000Z","2016-12-18T05:41:07.000Z","2056-12-18T23:00:00.000Z"
"The Shia Muslim ritual of tatbir will no longer be widely practiced in 40 years.",70,,"VK7K7vg","VK7K7vg",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-18T05:41:07.000Z","2016-12-18T05:41:07.000Z","2056-12-18T23:00:00.000Z"
"""Infinite impact"" from climate change within the next 100 years, which ""refers to the state where civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends"" ",0.001,,"nathanpmyoung","D Pamlin & S Armstrong","",,"x risk,climate change","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-05T23:03:04.042Z","2015-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2115-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""Infinite impact"" from climate change within the next 100 years, which ""refers to the state where civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends"" ",0.01,,"D Pamlin & S Armstrong","D Pamlin & S Armstrong",,,"x risk,climate change","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2115-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"1 person helicopter drones in commercial use",51,,"themusicgod1","kjaques",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-15T21:01:52.000Z","2016-12-15T16:43:22.000Z","2021-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"1 person helicopter drones in commercial use",85,,"kjaques","kjaques",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-15T16:43:22.000Z","2016-12-15T16:43:22.000Z","2021-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Of course in 5 years this [Google Assistant] thing is retired without much fanfare because Google doesn’t know how to create products"" - BB",15,,"Neznans","Neznans",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-16T10:04:54.000Z","2018-05-16T10:04:54.000Z","2023-05-16T10:04:54.000Z"
"""Of course in 5 years this [Google Assistant] thing is retired without much fanfare because Google doesn’t know how to create products"" - BB",70,,"MultiplyByZer0","Neznans",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-23T22:28:24.000Z","2018-05-16T10:04:54.000Z","2023-05-16T10:04:54.000Z"
"""Of course in 5 years this [Google Assistant] thing is retired without much fanfare because Google doesn’t know how to create products"" - BB",13,,"MultiplyByZer0","Neznans",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-30T19:41:29.769Z","2018-05-16T10:04:54.000Z","2023-05-16T10:04:54.000Z"
"There will be a new DSM version released by 2020, replacing the current DSM-V. Can be a revision (i.e., DSM-V TR)",70,,"jesselevine","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-09T02:19:51.000Z","2015-04-09T02:19:51.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a new DSM version released by 2020, replacing the current DSM-V. Can be a revision (i.e., DSM-V TR)",65,,"JoshuaZ","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-25T02:13:14.000Z","2015-04-09T02:19:51.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a major blizzard in Denver in either October or November 2015",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-28T22:48:34.000Z","2015-09-28T22:48:34.000Z","2016-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a major blizzard in Denver in either October or November 2015",30,,"Josh Holland","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-29T13:23:11.000Z","2015-09-28T22:48:34.000Z","2016-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the United States, manual labor will make up a larger percentage of the total workforce in 2035 than it does in 2015. ",15,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-14T00:03:20.000Z","2015-04-14T00:03:20.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the United States, manual labor will make up a larger percentage of the total workforce in 2035 than it does in 2015. ",15,,"sflicht","JoshuaZ","This bet is underspecified without a definition of manual labor and a source of statistics. I suggest picking some categories in the BLS classifcation (e.g. 35--53) http://www.bls.gov/soc/major_groups.htm. Caveat: they revise this periodically.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-14T11:21:10.000Z","2015-04-14T00:03:20.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"We will have a second child within 10 years",20,,"penten","penten",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-09T16:36:04.000Z","2016-12-09T16:36:04.000Z","2026-12-09T16:36:04.000Z"
"We will have a second child within 10 years",49,,"themusicgod1","penten",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-09T20:15:54.000Z","2016-12-09T16:36:04.000Z","2026-12-09T16:36:04.000Z"
"Cave Bear to be resurrected by 2100",25,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-06T20:35:22.000Z","2015-08-06T06:50:12.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cave Bear to be resurrected by 2100",10,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-06T06:50:12.000Z","2015-08-06T06:50:12.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Intelligent lifeforms found on other planets by the end of the 2000s.",95,,"JoshuaZ","HolmesSherlockHolmes",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-13T06:37:55.000Z","2013-11-13T02:52:02.000Z","3000-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Intelligent lifeforms found on other planets by the end of the 2000s.",69,,"HolmesSherlockHolmes","HolmesSherlockHolmes",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-13T02:52:02.000Z","2013-11-13T02:52:02.000Z","3000-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I'll get into an American University next year.",15,,"Hurzek","Hurzek",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-18T13:12:23.000Z","2015-04-18T13:12:23.000Z","2016-09-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"I'll get into an American University next year.",10,,"PseudonymousUser","Hurzek",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-18T17:28:56.000Z","2015-04-18T13:12:23.000Z","2016-09-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"I will have a date in the next two weeks",100,,"dmai9600@yahoo.com","dmai9600@yahoo.com",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-19T04:29:17.000Z","2015-04-19T04:29:17.000Z","2015-05-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will have a date in the next two weeks",85,,"EloiseRosen","dmai9600@yahoo.com",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-25T21:29:08.000Z","2015-04-19T04:29:17.000Z","2015-05-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"A zombie apocalypse could happen.",55,,"Snowshi","Snowshi",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-20T20:19:11.000Z","2014-01-20T20:19:11.000Z","2050-01-16T23:00:00.000Z"
"A zombie apocalypse could happen.",0,,"Rowan93","Snowshi","Even ignoring everything else about zombies being impossible; either they'll be weak enough for humans to exterminate them, or they'll be too different from popular ""zombies"" to really count as zombies.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-24T16:38:48.000Z","2014-01-20T20:19:11.000Z","2050-01-16T23:00:00.000Z"
"On 2018-01-01, Open Philanthropy Research Analyst Ajeya Cotra thinks CEA’s support of EA student groups has improved since September 2016 (conditional on Ajeya feeling she has enough evidence to make such a judgment)",75,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-30T06:31:03.000Z","2017-08-30T06:31:03.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"On 2018-01-01, Open Philanthropy Research Analyst Ajeya Cotra thinks CEA’s support of EA student groups has improved since September 2016 (conditional on Ajeya feeling she has enough evidence to make such a judgment)",85,,"Pablo","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-30T16:57:57.000Z","2017-08-30T06:31:03.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"My relationship with L. will be ongoing as of the end of 2018.",10,,"Shorntane","imaxwell",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-07-24T16:34:33.000Z","2018-06-30T21:10:00.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"My relationship with L. will be ongoing as of the end of 2018.",90,,"imaxwell","imaxwell",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-06-30T21:10:00.000Z","2018-06-30T21:10:00.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"The winner of the 2015 ImageNet challenge will have a error rate between 2-3%.",70,,"FractalHeretic","FractalHeretic",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-18T03:28:54.000Z","2015-04-18T03:28:54.000Z","2015-09-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"The winner of the 2015 ImageNet challenge will have a error rate between 2-3%.",70,,"average_joe","FractalHeretic",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-28T20:56:41.000Z","2015-04-18T03:28:54.000Z","2015-09-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will end up at least starting an academic postgraduate degree (excludes things like a PGCE, or medical conversion course)",75,,"RoryS","RoryS",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-22T18:28:43.000Z","2015-04-22T18:28:43.000Z","2021-09-22T11:00:00.000Z"
"I will end up at least starting an academic postgraduate degree (excludes things like a PGCE, or medical conversion course)",65,,"JoshuaZ","RoryS",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-22T19:12:41.000Z","2015-04-22T18:28:43.000Z","2021-09-22T11:00:00.000Z"
"At least 4% of non-electric vehicles sold in 2020 in the US will be diesel. ",65,,"Josh Holland","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-05T09:29:52.000Z","2015-10-02T22:15:32.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 4% of non-electric vehicles sold in 2020 in the US will be diesel. ",55,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-02T22:15:32.000Z","2015-10-02T22:15:32.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Antibiotics prescribed less than 415 times per 1000 Americans in 2050",40,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-01T17:59:49.000Z","2015-10-01T17:59:49.000Z","2051-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Antibiotics prescribed less than 415 times per 1000 Americans in 2050",55,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-01T18:23:41.000Z","2015-10-01T17:59:49.000Z","2051-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"On 2018-01-01, Nick Beckstead believes that cause prioritization working groups at universities are a cost-effective way of identifying new talent in the EA community (cond. on there being at least 3 such working groups, which he thinks is likely)",70,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-30T06:28:15.000Z","2017-08-30T06:28:15.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"On 2018-01-01, Nick Beckstead believes that cause prioritization working groups at universities are a cost-effective way of identifying new talent in the EA community (cond. on there being at least 3 such working groups, which he thinks is likely)",75,,"Pablo","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-30T16:58:33.000Z","2017-08-30T06:28:15.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that standard marketing and outreach (e.g. online ads) result on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000 ",65,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-30T06:21:27.000Z","2017-08-30T06:21:27.000Z","2019-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that standard marketing and outreach (e.g. online ads) result on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000 ",55,,"Pablo","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-30T16:59:10.000Z","2017-08-30T06:21:27.000Z","2019-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The risk of extinction due to the consequences of nuclear war, or as a result of a ‘Doomsday machine’, in the 21st century",1,,"Alexey Turchin","Alexey Turchin","Exact prediction: ""In the order of 1%""",,"nuclear,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2008-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2008-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2120-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The risk of extinction due to the consequences of nuclear war, or as a result of a ‘Doomsday machine’, in the 21st century",3,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Alexey Turchin","",,"nuclear,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-19T08:59:16.142Z","2008-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2120-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"[Long term] By 2200, the continent of Africa will be thriving, with a competitive economy and cities that rival those of other continents.",20,,"jesselevine","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-23T20:00:49.000Z","2015-04-23T20:00:49.000Z","2200-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Long term] By 2200, the continent of Africa will be thriving, with a competitive economy and cities that rival those of other continents.",85,,"JoshuaZ","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-23T01:24:04.000Z","2015-04-23T20:00:49.000Z","2200-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that the Doing Good Better book giveaway results on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000",60,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-30T06:18:25.000Z","2017-08-30T06:18:25.000Z","2019-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that the Doing Good Better book giveaway results on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000",65,,"Pablo","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-30T16:59:50.000Z","2017-08-30T06:18:25.000Z","2019-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"80,000 Hours hires at least two staff members in 2017",60,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-30T05:57:04.000Z","2017-08-30T05:57:04.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"80,000 Hours hires at least two staff members in 2017",50,,"Pablo","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-30T17:01:49.000Z","2017-08-30T05:57:04.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Brasil will  reduce 43% of its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 from 2005 levels.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-17T10:37:55.000Z","2015-10-17T10:37:55.000Z","2029-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"Brasil will  reduce 43% of its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 from 2005 levels.",48,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-17T12:50:28.000Z","2015-10-17T10:37:55.000Z","2029-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"Obergefell v Hodges effectively overturned by December 31, 2025",51,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-06-30T11:55:27.000Z","2018-06-30T11:55:27.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Obergefell v Hodges effectively overturned by December 31, 2025",2,,"JTPeterson","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-01T20:51:58.000Z","2018-06-30T11:55:27.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Before January 1 2045, no normal material substance (that is composed of atoms made from neutrons and protons with electrons) will be discovered that blocks more neutrinos than a factor of 10 over what a pure density argument would suggest. ",65,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-25T13:38:18.000Z","2015-04-25T13:38:18.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Before January 1 2045, no normal material substance (that is composed of atoms made from neutrons and protons with electrons) will be discovered that blocks more neutrinos than a factor of 10 over what a pure density argument would suggest. ",55,,"EloiseRosen","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-25T21:25:02.000Z","2015-04-25T13:38:18.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 1.96% GDP growth rate for Rossiya(Росси́я) in 2015- 2024.",3,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Raahul_Kumar","You want it to be exactly that?! That's not why people make numerical predictions! Ok, well this is your prediction, so whatever.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-10T04:39:03.000Z","2016-01-04T02:42:28.000Z","2024-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 1.96% GDP growth rate for Rossiya(Росси́я) in 2015- 2024.",1,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-04T02:42:28.000Z","2016-01-04T02:42:28.000Z","2024-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Democrats will keep the house and take the senate in 2020",80,,"overtone","SeriousPod",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-31T01:27:22.029Z","2018-08-02T00:32:45.000Z","2020-11-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"Democrats will keep the house and take the senate in 2020",70,,"SeriousPod","SeriousPod",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-08-02T00:32:45.000Z","2018-08-02T00:32:45.000Z","2020-11-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"Globish(a minimalistic dialect of English used for international buisness) will be the de facto language of Europe by 2030",33,,"themusicgod1","Keller","this could be Simple English. https://simple.wikipedia.org . Guess we gotta get RahisiBhasha ( https://github.com/themusicgod1/RahisiBhasha/ ) in gear to beat this!",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:17:17.000Z","2011-12-16T21:55:30.000Z","2030-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Globish(a minimalistic dialect of English used for international buisness) will be the de facto language of Europe by 2030",40,,"Keller","Keller",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-16T21:55:30.000Z","2011-12-16T21:55:30.000Z","2030-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be no war in 50 years.",10,,"spacemammoth","spacemammoth",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-08-13T14:37:01.000Z","2014-08-13T14:37:01.000Z","2064-08-13T14:37:01.000Z"
"There will be no war in 50 years.",21,,"themusicgod1","spacemammoth",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-24T03:29:52.000Z","2014-08-13T14:37:01.000Z","2064-08-13T14:37:01.000Z"
"UAV's/drones will be commercially viable before self driving cars",80,,"JosefK","JosefK",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-30T11:17:39.000Z","2014-01-30T11:17:39.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"UAV's/drones will be commercially viable before self driving cars",80,,"Mati Roy","JosefK",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-31T02:30:24.000Z","2014-01-30T11:17:39.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The next president or vice president who is not a white male will either be a hispanic man or a white woman.",85,,"jbluphin","jbluphin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-01T01:39:44.000Z","2014-02-01T01:39:44.000Z","2026-02-01T01:39:44.000Z"
"The next president or vice president who is not a white male will either be a hispanic man or a white woman.",60,,"Michael Dickens","jbluphin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-03T20:54:36.000Z","2014-02-01T01:39:44.000Z","2026-02-01T01:39:44.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, at least 10% of Artemis' classmates talk almost every day to chatbots for fun (only count conversations of at least 15 turns).",15,,"Rick","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"Artemis: the daughter of the question author; born 2019/9/22. Author note: Talking to Alexa counts, but note that most conversations with her today are either not 15+ turns long or not fun.","tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-10T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, at least 10% of Artemis' classmates talk almost every day to chatbots for fun (only count conversations of at least 15 turns).",20,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"Artemis: the daughter of the question author; born 2019/9/22. Author note: Talking to Alexa counts, but note that most conversations with her today are either not 15+ turns long or not fun.","tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Green Monday a success",50,,"themusicgod1","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-29T21:32:48.000Z","2017-08-29T19:21:19.000Z","2026-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Green Monday a success",40,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-29T19:21:19.000Z","2017-08-29T19:21:19.000Z","2026-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bicycling mortality rate in US will be above 0.12 in 2030",50,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-24T22:28:36.000Z","2015-08-24T22:28:36.000Z","2031-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"Bicycling mortality rate in US will be above 0.12 in 2030",45,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-24T22:57:37.000Z","2015-08-24T22:28:36.000Z","2031-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, at least 90% of Rio Tinto's mines are heavily automated, i.e. almost all digging and transporting done with humans involved only as overseers.",25,,"Rick","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"Author note: If Rio Tinto doesn't exist or has no more mines this resolves positive","tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-10T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, at least 90% of Rio Tinto's mines are heavily automated, i.e. almost all digging and transporting done with humans involved only as overseers.",70,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"Author note: If Rio Tinto doesn't exist or has no more mines this resolves positive","tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Bicycling mortality rate in US will be above 0.06 in 2050",60,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-24T22:32:21.000Z","2015-08-24T22:32:21.000Z","2051-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Bicycling mortality rate in US will be above 0.06 in 2050",45,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-24T22:58:04.000Z","2015-08-24T22:32:21.000Z","2051-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, Artemis can buy, for  <$50,000, a household robot which can clear dishes off the table and load them into the dishwasher.",8,,"Rick","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"Artemis: the daughter of the question author; born 2019/9/22. Author note: Her parents are allowed to help place the order","tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-10T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, Artemis can buy, for  <$50,000, a household robot which can clear dishes off the table and load them into the dishwasher.",12,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"Artemis: the daughter of the question author; born 2019/9/22. Author note: Her parents are allowed to help place the order","tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Demographer Sanjeev Sanyal of Deutsche Bank predicts
The Big Shrink. World’s fertility rate at replacement rate in 2025
World population  peak 2055 at 8.7 billion and decline to 8.0 billion by 2100. ",45,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-07T12:17:57.000Z","2015-10-07T07:19:39.000Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Demographer Sanjeev Sanyal of Deutsche Bank predicts
The Big Shrink. World’s fertility rate at replacement rate in 2025
World population  peak 2055 at 8.7 billion and decline to 8.0 billion by 2100. ",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-07T07:19:39.000Z","2015-10-07T07:19:39.000Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, at least a hundred million people killed since the beginning of 2020 by a single pathogen recognized as a pandemic.",30,,"Timothy","Daniel Kokotajlo","Predictor note: 544",,"biorisk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, at least a hundred million people killed since the beginning of 2020 by a single pathogen recognized as a pandemic.",20,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,,"biorisk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, another nuke has been used against human targets (this includes stratosphere bursts).",20,,"Timothy","Daniel Kokotajlo","Predictor note: 543",,"geopolitics,nuclear","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, another nuke has been used against human targets (this includes stratosphere bursts).",12,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,,"geopolitics,nuclear","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"On 2030/9/22, at least 10 humans are on the Moon.",30,,"Timothy","Daniel Kokotajlo","Predictor note: 539",,"space","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"On 2030/9/22, at least 10 humans are on the Moon.",20,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,,"space","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"On 2030/9/22, at least 10 humans are on Mars.",20,,"Timothy","Daniel Kokotajlo","Predictor note: 538",,"space","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"On 2030/9/22, at least 10 humans are on Mars.",15,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,,"space","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Bhāratīya Nau Senā (भारतीय नौ सेना) wil be a 200 ship fleet by 2027 - Admiral P Murugesan",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-24T05:47:29.000Z","2015-09-24T05:47:29.000Z","2027-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bhāratīya Nau Senā (भारतीय नौ सेना) wil be a 200 ship fleet by 2027 - Admiral P Murugesan",75,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-24T12:05:28.000Z","2015-09-24T05:47:29.000Z","2027-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, at least one thousand individuals have chopped off healthy limbs to replace them with robot limbs.",10,,"Timothy","Daniel Kokotajlo","Predictor note: 530",,"tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, at least one thousand individuals have chopped off healthy limbs to replace them with robot limbs.",15,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,,"tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, at least one hundred active-duty combat soldiers have robot legs.",20,,"Timothy","Daniel Kokotajlo","Predictor note: 529",,"tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, at least one hundred active-duty combat soldiers have robot legs.",30,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,,"tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, the US military has at least one unit that makes use of human exoskeletons.",20,,"Timothy","Daniel Kokotajlo","Predictor note: 525","Author note: this includes in non-combat roles like construction and ammo-loading","tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, the US military has at least one unit that makes use of human exoskeletons.",22,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"Author note: this includes in non-combat roles like construction and ammo-loading","tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Salted__aÀ_>—é
䃊p4ìÕÔ‹?‚)ciÅÑ0=ZÌ—±B¤ºÑö£l‚wKÌĺDZ¦Xù˜¹Û¸c?ó—Ýc>ÅŒ§%Ñ{E#ã¶`WÓÑÕ­Šä^¼ÙB’àu¶ÂZ‘KÐaa1qpµÙ°¿ÊŒ·fK	D~S",49,,"themusicgod1","Stillvallight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-20T12:41:16.000Z","2016-11-20T05:55:28.000Z","2017-11-20T05:55:28.000Z"
"Salted__aÀ_>—é
䃊p4ìÕÔ‹?‚)ciÅÑ0=ZÌ—±B¤ºÑö£l‚wKÌĺDZ¦Xù˜¹Û¸c?ó—Ýc>ÅŒ§%Ñ{E#ã¶`WÓÑÕ­Šä^¼ÙB’àu¶ÂZ‘KÐaa1qpµÙ°¿ÊŒ·fK	D~S",49,,"themusicgod1","Stillvallight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-20T12:41:01.000Z","2016-11-20T05:55:28.000Z","2017-11-20T05:55:28.000Z"
"Salted__aÀ_>—é
䃊p4ìÕÔ‹?‚)ciÅÑ0=ZÌ—±B¤ºÑö£l‚wKÌĺDZ¦Xù˜¹Û¸c?ó—Ýc>ÅŒ§%Ñ{E#ã¶`WÓÑÕ­Šä^¼ÙB’àu¶ÂZ‘KÐaa1qpµÙ°¿ÊŒ·fK	D~S",65,,"Stillvallight","Stillvallight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-20T05:55:28.000Z","2016-11-20T05:55:28.000Z","2017-11-20T05:55:28.000Z"
"Salted__DË'}) q×ɍ¸Æ2%ÙH”Ãôf4MwCÊ=»Ò“QÆ{PKÈ2œ³Ó¨†ÍÈüÑ=6¸®!ö»Ogšb€K5$ÆÙðjs[ÖØ%DOÒŒ9T•SØÆxä^ ›IQ/7,ê©Ò!¸•€¡—Ï£N•¶„,ócg3÷g",99,,"Stillvallight","Stillvallight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-20T05:50:57.000Z","2016-11-20T05:50:57.000Z","2017-11-20T05:50:57.000Z"
"Salted__DË'}) q×ɍ¸Æ2%ÙH”Ãôf4MwCÊ=»Ò“QÆ{PKÈ2œ³Ó¨†ÍÈüÑ=6¸®!ö»Ogšb€K5$ÆÙðjs[ÖØ%DOÒŒ9T•SØÆxä^ ›IQ/7,ê©Ò!¸•€¡—Ï£N•¶„,ócg3÷g",49,,"themusicgod1","Stillvallight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-20T12:41:42.000Z","2016-11-20T05:50:57.000Z","2017-11-20T05:50:57.000Z"
"I will have a super awesome computer before the release of Black Desert (in Europe).",80,,"PseudonymousUser","PseudonymousUser",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-02T23:36:33.000Z","2015-05-02T23:36:33.000Z","2016-06-01T22:59:00.000Z"
"I will have a super awesome computer before the release of Black Desert (in Europe).",61,,"JoshuaZ","PseudonymousUser",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-02T23:37:41.000Z","2015-05-02T23:36:33.000Z","2016-06-01T22:59:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Wisconsin in 2020",70.48,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Wisconsin in 2020",93.8,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Sam will complete his PhD.",55,,"EloiseRosen","EloiseRosen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-01T16:48:26.000Z","2015-05-04T15:27:10.000Z","2025-05-04T16:00:00.000Z"
"Sam will complete his PhD.",65,,"JoshuaZ","EloiseRosen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-01T20:25:17.000Z","2015-05-04T15:27:10.000Z","2025-05-04T16:00:00.000Z"
"Sam will complete his PhD.",80,,"EloiseRosen","EloiseRosen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-04T15:27:10.000Z","2015-05-04T15:27:10.000Z","2025-05-04T16:00:00.000Z"
"Rural electrification:  18,452 villages are to be provided electricity in Bharat under the Deen Dayal Upadhyay Gramin Jyoti Yojana by May 1, 2018. ",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-07T08:17:31.000Z","2015-12-07T08:17:31.000Z","2018-05-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"Rural electrification:  18,452 villages are to be provided electricity in Bharat under the Deen Dayal Upadhyay Gramin Jyoti Yojana by May 1, 2018. ",62,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-07T22:59:29.000Z","2015-12-07T08:17:31.000Z","2018-05-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, annual industrial robot sales are 10X+ what they were in 2020.",15,,"Rick","Daniel Kokotajlo",,,"tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-10T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, annual industrial robot sales are 10X+ what they were in 2020.",20,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,,"tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat: HNWI wealth is forecasted at USD 1.425 trillion in 2016, rising to USD 2.3 trillion by 2020. --Julius Baer wealth report",55,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-04T20:08:52.000Z","2015-12-02T12:35:21.000Z","2020-12-25T23:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat: HNWI wealth is forecasted at USD 1.425 trillion in 2016, rising to USD 2.3 trillion by 2020. --Julius Baer wealth report",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-02T12:35:21.000Z","2015-12-02T12:35:21.000Z","2020-12-25T23:00:00.000Z"
"Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar: 1 billion (Rs 6,600 crore) worth of defence equipment will be exported in three years.",95,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-24T11:51:02.000Z","2015-09-24T11:51:02.000Z","2018-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar: 1 billion (Rs 6,600 crore) worth of defence equipment will be exported in three years.",55,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-11T18:22:34.000Z","2015-09-24T11:51:02.000Z","2018-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Animal Welfare Standards Project a success",50,,"themusicgod1","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-29T21:34:41.000Z","2017-08-29T19:20:07.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Animal Welfare Standards Project a success",70,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-29T19:20:07.000Z","2017-08-29T19:20:07.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will have 294 5th gen fighters - 50% more than the USAF F-22s.
",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-24T11:54:24.000Z","2015-09-24T11:54:24.000Z","2030-12-25T23:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will have 294 5th gen fighters - 50% more than the USAF F-22s.
",25,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-11T18:21:56.000Z","2015-09-24T11:54:24.000Z","2030-12-25T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, another human has landed on the moon.",60,,"Timothy","Daniel Kokotajlo","Predictor note: 546","Author note: i.e. since 2019.","space","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, another human has landed on the moon.",60,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"Author note: i.e. since 2019.","space","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, there are at least a million cybertrucks in use.",20,,"Timothy","Daniel Kokotajlo","Predictor note: 545","Author note: How could we not have a question about this, given our theme?","tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, there are at least a million cybertrucks in use.",40,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"Author note: How could we not have a question about this, given our theme?","tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, World War III has begun. (WWIII is defined as a war that is commonly referred to as such, with terminological dissenters a clear minority).",10,,"Timothy","Daniel Kokotajlo","Predictor note: 542",,"geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, World War III has begun. (WWIII is defined as a war that is commonly referred to as such, with terminological dissenters a clear minority).",15,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,,"geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, for $1 or less fake video of Artemis doing almost anything can be made which costs $100 or more to detect as fake.",20,,"Timothy","Daniel Kokotajlo","Predictor note: 540","Artemis: the daughter of the question author; born 2019/9/22. ","tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, for $1 or less fake video of Artemis doing almost anything can be made which costs $100 or more to detect as fake.",55,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"Artemis: the daughter of the question author; born 2019/9/22. ","tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, an orbital-class rocket has been reused 100 times.",60,,"Timothy","Daniel Kokotajlo","Predictor note: 537","Author note: i.e. boosted something to orbit multiple times","space","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, an orbital-class rocket has been reused 100 times.",50,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"Author note: i.e. boosted something to orbit multiple times","space","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"
Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 3.34% GDP growth rate for Brasil in 2015- 2024. 
	",5,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Raahul_Kumar","Lol, dude, this uses data from 2014. No wonder.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-10T04:46:52.000Z","2016-01-04T02:30:09.000Z","2024-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"
Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 3.34% GDP growth rate for Brasil in 2015- 2024. 
	",15,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-04T02:30:09.000Z","2016-01-04T02:30:09.000Z","2024-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, Artemis' home is powered more by solar than by fossil fuels.",40,,"Timothy","Daniel Kokotajlo","Predictor note: 535","Artemis: the daughter of the question author; born 2019/9/22. Author note: If it is powered by neither, this resolves negative.","energy","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, Artemis' home is powered more by solar than by fossil fuels.",10,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"Artemis: the daughter of the question author; born 2019/9/22. Author note: If it is powered by neither, this resolves negative.","energy","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, Artemis' home is powered more by wind than by fossil fuels.",30,,"Timothy","Daniel Kokotajlo","Predictor note: 534","Artemis: the daughter of the question author; born 2019/9/22. Author note: If it is powered by neither, this resolves negative.","energy","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, Artemis' home is powered more by wind than by fossil fuels.",10,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"Artemis: the daughter of the question author; born 2019/9/22. Author note: If it is powered by neither, this resolves negative.","energy","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, at least one hundred active-duty combat soldiers have robot arms.",20,,"Timothy","Daniel Kokotajlo","Predictor note: 528",,"tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, at least one hundred active-duty combat soldiers have robot arms.",20,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,,"tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, there are twenty people widely known to be over the age of 120.",40,,"Timothy","Daniel Kokotajlo","Predictor note: 527",,"health","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, there are twenty people widely known to be over the age of 120.",20,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,,"health","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, at least one seemingly healthy human clone exists (multiples don't count).",70,,"Timothy","Daniel Kokotajlo","Predictor note: 526","Author note: Must not be still in womb or incubator or petri dish etc.","science","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, at least one seemingly healthy human clone exists (multiples don't count).",20,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"Author note: Must not be still in womb or incubator or petri dish etc.","science","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, at least one military has a unit of infantry mounted on personal flying vehicles.",10,,"Timothy","Daniel Kokotajlo","Predictor note: 524","Author note: e.g. jetpacks, hoverbikes--anything designed to carry one or two humans that lacks an enclosed cockpit.","tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, at least one military has a unit of infantry mounted on personal flying vehicles.",15,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"Author note: e.g. jetpacks, hoverbikes--anything designed to carry one or two humans that lacks an enclosed cockpit.","tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, there has been an ""All-out"" cyberwar between the US, Russia, and/or China. (That is, they expend all or almost all of their zero-days and generally cease holding back cyber capabilities except for humanitarian reasons).",20,,"Timothy","Daniel Kokotajlo","Predictor note: 523",,"geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, there has been an ""All-out"" cyberwar between the US, Russia, and/or China. (That is, they expend all or almost all of their zero-days and generally cease holding back cyber capabilities except for humanitarian reasons).",30,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,,"geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, at least two restaurants within 10 miles of Artemis' house accept some form of cryptocurrency.",90,,"Timothy","Daniel Kokotajlo","Predictor note: 522","Artemis: the daughter of the question author; born 2019/9/22. ","tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, at least two restaurants within 10 miles of Artemis' house accept some form of cryptocurrency.",30,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"Artemis: the daughter of the question author; born 2019/9/22. ","tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"A large-scale persistant Alternate Reality game is created which sets a ""cyberspace grafitti"" sort of layer on top of reality; sells poorly, but trudges on with a cult following.",13,,"themusicgod1","kallman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T02:51:22.000Z","2010-11-22T23:20:02.000Z","2030-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"A large-scale persistant Alternate Reality game is created which sets a ""cyberspace grafitti"" sort of layer on top of reality; sells poorly, but trudges on with a cult following.",20,,"kallman","kallman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-22T23:20:03.000Z","2010-11-22T23:20:02.000Z","2030-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"I will eat a sandwich for lunch tomorrow",49,,"themusicgod1","epm5108@psu.edu",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-30T21:00:15.000Z","2016-11-29T05:53:03.000Z","2016-11-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will eat a sandwich for lunch tomorrow",60,,"epm5108@psu.edu","epm5108@psu.edu",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-29T05:53:03.000Z","2016-11-29T05:53:03.000Z","2016-11-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"Right-leaning political parties, relative to the political parties currently in power, will control a greater number of majority positions of executive or (all) legislative branches of EU-member countries than at present.",70,,"Afforess","Afforess",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-01T03:21:30.000Z","2015-09-01T03:21:30.000Z","2025-09-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Right-leaning political parties, relative to the political parties currently in power, will control a greater number of majority positions of executive or (all) legislative branches of EU-member countries than at present.",45,,"JoshuaZ","Afforess",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-01T10:30:12.000Z","2015-09-01T03:21:30.000Z","2025-09-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Abstract objects: Nominalism",37.7,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: nominalism"" to the question ""Abstract objects: Platonism or nominalism?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Abstract objects: Nominalism",45,,"Ethan Perez","PhilPapers","","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-01T22:54:55.320Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"minecraft will have a new update",70,,"jayk","jeredcaleb",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-10T04:32:11.000Z","2014-02-02T14:07:52.000Z","2014-02-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"minecraft will have a new update",70,,"jeredcaleb","jeredcaleb",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-02T14:07:52.000Z","2014-02-02T14:07:52.000Z","2014-02-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"Umsatz für Fleischersatzprodukte in Deutschland für 2017 wird größer sein als der 2 Jahresdurchschnitt, i.e. der von 2015 und 2016",85,,"maxra","MrBubu","Up to 2015 there is a clear uphill slope: https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/426592/umfrage/umsatz-mit-fleischersatzprodukten-in-deutschland/
PS: Using english would allow everyone to bet on this. :)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-12T11:18:12.000Z","2017-05-10T08:31:45.000Z","2018-01-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Umsatz für Fleischersatzprodukte in Deutschland für 2017 wird größer sein als der 2 Jahresdurchschnitt, i.e. der von 2015 und 2016",70,,"MrBubu","MrBubu",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-10T08:31:45.000Z","2017-05-10T08:31:45.000Z","2018-01-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Humane Slaughter Association (HSA) a major success",5,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-29T19:16:14.000Z","2017-08-29T19:16:14.000Z","2027-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Humane Slaughter Association (HSA) a major success",49,,"themusicgod1","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-31T11:43:02.000Z","2017-08-29T19:16:14.000Z","2027-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Washington in 2020",92.08,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Washington in 2020",99.13,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"SLS to be launched at least once or to be canceled outright by May 15, 2025",55,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-07-05T01:00:03.000Z","2018-07-05T01:00:03.000Z","2025-05-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"SLS to be launched at least once or to be canceled outright by May 15, 2025",51,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T18:23:58.334Z","2018-07-05T01:00:03.000Z","2025-05-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"SLS to be launched at least once or to be canceled outright by May 15, 2025",65,,"phi","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-05T22:27:55.000Z","2018-07-05T01:00:03.000Z","2025-05-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"SLS to be launched at least once or to be canceled outright by May 15, 2025",61,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Not an update in 30 seconds- Meant 61%",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T18:24:39.356Z","2018-07-05T01:00:03.000Z","2025-05-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to World Animal Protection a major success",49,,"themusicgod1","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-31T11:42:48.000Z","2017-08-29T19:12:36.000Z","2026-11-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to World Animal Protection a major success",20,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-29T19:12:36.000Z","2017-08-29T19:12:36.000Z","2026-11-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Manage to make the REDACTED sufficiently fun and interesting that we can get the core concepts integrated into the series by REDACTED. ",1,,"Temeraire","Temeraire",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-04-29T14:32:10.000Z","2017-04-29T14:32:10.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Manage to make the REDACTED sufficiently fun and interesting that we can get the core concepts integrated into the series by REDACTED. ",49,,"themusicgod1","Temeraire",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-04-30T21:48:42.000Z","2017-04-29T14:32:10.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Assuming such services are still in demand, by 2030, more than 99% of court reporters, captioners, and CAT and CART providers in the U.S. will be replaced by automatic machines.",95,,"quintopia","quintopia",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-11T05:29:36.000Z","2015-05-11T05:29:36.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Assuming such services are still in demand, by 2030, more than 99% of court reporters, captioners, and CAT and CART providers in the U.S. will be replaced by automatic machines.",75,,"JoshuaZ","quintopia",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-11T13:33:56.000Z","2015-05-11T05:29:36.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
" Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Compassion in World Farming a major success",10,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-29T19:08:51.000Z","2017-08-29T19:08:51.000Z","2027-03-01T12:00:00.000Z"
" Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Compassion in World Farming a major success",49,,"themusicgod1","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-31T11:42:42.000Z","2017-08-29T19:08:51.000Z","2027-03-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alex Honnold will be alive 5 years from now",51,,"themusicgod1","berekuk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-07T12:59:54.000Z","2017-06-07T08:45:44.000Z","2022-06-07T08:45:44.000Z"
"Alex Honnold will be alive 5 years from now",85,,"berekuk","berekuk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-07T08:45:44.000Z","2017-06-07T08:45:44.000Z","2022-06-07T08:45:44.000Z"
"France will give up it's nuclear arsenal, france has 0 nuclear weapons left with no intent on acquiring them. ",5,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-06T21:20:47.000Z","2017-06-06T21:20:47.000Z","2022-06-06T12:00:00.000Z"
"France will give up it's nuclear arsenal, france has 0 nuclear weapons left with no intent on acquiring them. ",0,,"PseudonymousUser","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-23T02:36:53.000Z","2017-06-06T21:20:47.000Z","2022-06-06T12:00:00.000Z"
"#Calexit",0,,"Baeboo","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-03T21:37:20.000Z","2016-11-10T22:09:15.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"#Calexit",4,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-10T22:09:15.000Z","2016-11-10T22:09:15.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Venezuela and Cuba will join forces and sponsor marxist insurrection movements in one or more latin american countries, and those will cause at least one of {coup d'état,civil war,war}",3,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-06T21:15:58.000Z","2017-06-06T21:15:58.000Z","2022-06-06T12:00:00.000Z"
"Venezuela and Cuba will join forces and sponsor marxist insurrection movements in one or more latin american countries, and those will cause at least one of {coup d'état,civil war,war}",1,,"PseudonymousUser","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-23T02:37:18.000Z","2017-06-06T21:15:58.000Z","2022-06-06T12:00:00.000Z"
"_HP MoR_: ch45: The hint is about what happened to the phoenix Fawkes",15,,"Oscar_Cunningham","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-20T12:19:31.000Z","2012-04-04T23:55:57.000Z","2016-01-01T16:20:13.000Z"
"_HP MoR_: ch45: The hint is about what happened to the phoenix Fawkes",15,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-04T23:55:57.000Z","2012-04-04T23:55:57.000Z","2016-01-01T16:20:13.000Z"
"Conditional on Tibet being granted independence, at least as many political prisoners as 2017 per capita are found to be in/from Tibet 10 years later.",49,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-06T12:49:19.000Z","2017-06-06T12:49:19.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on Tibet being granted independence, at least as many political prisoners as 2017 per capita are found to be in/from Tibet 10 years later.",60,,"PseudonymousUser","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-23T02:39:31.000Z","2017-06-06T12:49:19.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"BFR to launch before 2022. ",18,,"Athrithalix","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-27T11:46:33.000Z","2017-11-27T01:27:34.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"BFR to launch before 2022. ",80,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-27T01:27:34.000Z","2017-11-27T01:27:34.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computer users who have stickers on their laptop are as a group more aggressive and more likely to get into arguments online than those who do not have stickers",60,,"PseudonymousUser","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-23T02:40:06.000Z","2017-06-03T20:36:28.000Z","2021-06-03T12:00:00.000Z"
"Computer users who have stickers on their laptop are as a group more aggressive and more likely to get into arguments online than those who do not have stickers",73,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-03T20:36:28.000Z","2017-06-03T20:36:28.000Z","2021-06-03T12:00:00.000Z"
"arctic free of ice at any point before dec 31 2056",70,,"Paul.David.Carr","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-03T17:35:11.000Z","2017-06-03T13:44:23.000Z","2056-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"arctic free of ice at any point before dec 31 2056",62,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-03T13:44:23.000Z","2017-06-03T13:44:23.000Z","2056-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on conservatives losing UK election 2017, at least one conservative MP accuses labour of illegally or immorally benefiting from russian influence or being russian plants in some way",45,,"jbeshir","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-29T17:20:37.000Z","2017-05-28T19:34:36.000Z","2017-07-08T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on conservatives losing UK election 2017, at least one conservative MP accuses labour of illegally or immorally benefiting from russian influence or being russian plants in some way",51,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-28T19:34:36.000Z","2017-05-28T19:34:36.000Z","2017-07-08T12:00:00.000Z"
"A junta will take over after a military coup.",5,,"chemotaxis101","Laudano",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-25T10:46:19.000Z","2017-11-25T10:24:18.000Z","2027-11-25T10:24:18.000Z"
"A junta will take over after a military coup.",30,,"Laudano","Laudano",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-25T10:24:18.000Z","2017-11-25T10:24:18.000Z","2027-11-25T10:24:18.000Z"
"Bill Simmons: Sports gambling legal in the US by 2020",25,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-06T08:52:51.000Z","2014-09-06T08:52:51.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bill Simmons: Sports gambling legal in the US by 2020",60,,"themusicgod1","RandomThinker","This sounds like the sort of thing that Trump Entertainment Resorts / etc could profit on.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T23:45:12.000Z","2014-09-06T08:52:51.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Milo Yiannopoulos still politically active/relevant in 30 years",9,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-20T00:52:04.000Z","2017-08-20T00:52:04.000Z","2047-08-17T12:00:00.000Z"
"Milo Yiannopoulos still politically active/relevant in 30 years",0,,"PseudonymousUser","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-23T02:03:23.000Z","2017-08-20T00:52:04.000Z","2047-08-17T12:00:00.000Z"
"M:BG will have a playable alpha.",60,,"Josh Holland","memoriesofbutter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-21T10:23:33.000Z","2015-10-19T00:46:36.000Z","2016-06-16T04:00:00.000Z"
"M:BG will have a playable alpha.",60,,"memoriesofbutter","memoriesofbutter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-19T00:46:36.000Z","2015-10-19T00:46:36.000Z","2016-06-16T04:00:00.000Z"
"Ludovico Einaudi will still be my favourite composer five years from now.",69,,"stepan","PseudonymousUser",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-24T17:50:19.313Z","2015-06-04T09:12:48.000Z","2020-06-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ludovico Einaudi will still be my favourite composer five years from now.",90,,"PseudonymousUser","PseudonymousUser",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-04T09:12:48.000Z","2015-06-04T09:12:48.000Z","2020-06-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"A predictive intelligence will emerge in the year 2031 to publicly accuse me of engaging in prediction-based warfare.",0,,"JoshuaZ","SmoothPorcupine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-18T19:37:02.000Z","2015-10-18T18:21:45.000Z","2032-07-16T19:00:00.000Z"
"A predictive intelligence will emerge in the year 2031 to publicly accuse me of engaging in prediction-based warfare.",70,,"SmoothPorcupine","SmoothPorcupine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-18T18:21:45.000Z","2015-10-18T18:21:45.000Z","2032-07-16T19:00:00.000Z"
"Jérémie Zimmermann gets caught up in some kind of sex scandal (a la Julian Assange/Jacob Appelbaum) and is forced to withdraw from public life",15,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-08T14:39:23.000Z","2016-11-08T14:39:23.000Z","2021-11-08T12:00:00.000Z"
"Jérémie Zimmermann gets caught up in some kind of sex scandal (a la Julian Assange/Jacob Appelbaum) and is forced to withdraw from public life",40,,"BigRaims","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-08T17:41:00.000Z","2016-11-08T14:39:23.000Z","2021-11-08T12:00:00.000Z"
"Native Americans kidnap and torture at least 400 US citizens over 2017-2032",93,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-01T23:31:49.000Z","2016-11-01T23:31:49.000Z","2033-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Native Americans kidnap and torture at least 400 US citizens over 2017-2032",5,,"PlacidPlatypus","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-02T19:32:59.000Z","2016-11-01T23:31:49.000Z","2033-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"S identifies as vegetarian by 15",47,,"themusicgod1","penten",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-31T19:25:06.000Z","2016-10-31T12:58:31.000Z","2031-10-31T12:58:31.000Z"
"S identifies as vegetarian by 15",30,,"penten","penten",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-31T12:58:32.000Z","2016-10-31T12:58:31.000Z","2031-10-31T12:58:31.000Z"
"We will be able to identify the genes (collectively) responsible for 10% of the variance in ADHD by 2020 ",30,,"olivia","InquilineKea","Definitely higher than the IQ one. ADHD has less stigma to study, and is likely genetically simpler.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-15T23:35:03.000Z","2015-07-15T18:42:35.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"We will be able to identify the genes (collectively) responsible for 10% of the variance in ADHD by 2020 ",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-15T18:42:35.000Z","2015-07-15T18:42:35.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Telecommunications and Other Legislation Amendment (Assistance and Access) Act 2018 will cause high profile services such as AWS or WhatsApp to be withdrawn from the Australian market within 2 years",10,,"sjy","sjy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-05T01:33:25.730Z","2018-12-05T01:33:25.715Z","2020-12-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Telecommunications and Other Legislation Amendment (Assistance and Access) Act 2018 will cause high profile services such as AWS or WhatsApp to be withdrawn from the Australian market within 2 years",15,,"pranomostro","sjy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-06T18:51:21.159Z","2018-12-05T01:33:25.715Z","2020-12-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"https://gnosis.pm survives longer than predictionbook ",17,,"Semenar","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-01T20:10:20.000Z","2017-04-25T20:34:28.000Z","3000-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"https://gnosis.pm survives longer than predictionbook ",49,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-04-25T20:34:28.000Z","2017-04-25T20:34:28.000Z","3000-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat cumulative installed electricity capacity will be over 600 GW by 2025",68,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-17T12:26:13.000Z","2015-10-17T10:55:50.000Z","2025-12-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat cumulative installed electricity capacity will be over 600 GW by 2025",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-17T10:55:50.000Z","2015-10-17T10:55:50.000Z","2025-12-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"The capital city will be moved elsewhere from Brasilia.",10,,"Laudano","Laudano",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-25T10:24:18.000Z","2017-11-25T10:24:18.000Z","2027-11-25T10:24:18.000Z"
"The capital city will be moved elsewhere from Brasilia.",2,,"chemotaxis101","Laudano",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-25T10:45:14.000Z","2017-11-25T10:24:18.000Z","2027-11-25T10:24:18.000Z"
"Glucose-powered electronics will go for FDA approval in 2028",80,,"icrbow","icrbow",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-03T09:05:11.000Z","2017-08-03T09:05:11.000Z","2028-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Glucose-powered electronics will go for FDA approval in 2028",51,,"themusicgod1","icrbow",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-03T18:00:27.000Z","2017-08-03T09:05:11.000Z","2028-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Predictionbook gets taken over by prediction market fetishists(rule 34), most new predictions are of a sexual nature",80,,"custom","themusicgod1","I expect to become a prediction market fetishist by then.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-04-13T17:56:15.000Z","2017-04-13T13:40:03.000Z","2037-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Predictionbook gets taken over by prediction market fetishists(rule 34), most new predictions are of a sexual nature",13,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-04-13T13:40:03.000Z","2017-04-13T13:40:03.000Z","2037-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"World population passes 8 billion mark by mid 2023. (UN estimate).",50,,"unexpectedEOF","ekr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-07T15:30:21.000Z","2017-11-22T18:09:50.000Z","2023-06-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"World population passes 8 billion mark by mid 2023. (UN estimate).",80,,"ekr","ekr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-22T18:09:50.000Z","2017-11-22T18:09:50.000Z","2023-06-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Eliezer Yudkowsky's ""estimate of the optimal age will be twenty years higher"" than it was in 2008",30,,"penten","themusicgod1","Maybe higher though",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-04-12T09:29:59.000Z","2017-04-09T17:05:32.000Z","2028-05-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Eliezer Yudkowsky's ""estimate of the optimal age will be twenty years higher"" than it was in 2008",50,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-04-09T17:05:32.000Z","2017-04-09T17:05:32.000Z","2028-05-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Glucose-powered electronics will go for FDA approval in 2023",70,,"rmeador","icrbow",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-02T18:56:06.000Z","2017-08-03T09:04:39.000Z","2023-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Glucose-powered electronics will go for FDA approval in 2023",50,,"icrbow","icrbow",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-03T09:04:39.000Z","2017-08-03T09:04:39.000Z","2023-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alcor will perform >=1 cryopreservations in 2040.",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:09:53.000Z","2011-12-04T08:09:20.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alcor will perform >=1 cryopreservations in 2040.",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-04T08:09:20.000Z","2011-12-04T08:09:20.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins ME-2 in 2020",58.21,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins ME-2 in 2020",44.66,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Minnesota in 2020",95.75,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Minnesota in 2020",74.04,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins NE-1 in 2020",3.93,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins NE-1 in 2020",7.77,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Open Philanthropy Project will want to invest at least an additional $1 million in some of the animal welfare groups for their work in China after the two-year grant period is over",91,,"Michael Dickens","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-28T03:15:10.000Z","2017-08-30T05:42:21.000Z","2021-09-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Open Philanthropy Project will want to invest at least an additional $1 million in some of the animal welfare groups for their work in China after the two-year grant period is over",90,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-30T05:42:21.000Z","2017-08-30T05:42:21.000Z","2021-09-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050 stunting will be at 0% globally.",24,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-21T13:10:14.000Z","2015-12-21T11:05:29.000Z","2050-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2050 stunting will be at 0% globally.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-21T11:05:29.000Z","2015-12-21T11:05:29.000Z","2050-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on Joe Scarborough's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a *higher than average probability* of having Narcissistic Personality Disorder",46,,"themusicgod1","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-11T05:56:23.000Z","2016-10-10T17:21:19.000Z","2066-10-10T17:21:19.000Z"
"Conditional on Joe Scarborough's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a *higher than average probability* of having Narcissistic Personality Disorder",99,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T17:21:19.000Z","2016-10-10T17:21:19.000Z","2066-10-10T17:21:19.000Z"
"Pedophilia will be legalized in 20 years or in DSM6, whichever comes LATER. Legalized in particular means: age-of-consent abolished completely in any single country of so-called First World (or whatever is analogous to that in 20 years); ownership and dis",2,,"jkadlubo","jkadlubo","...tribution of child pornography cease to be punishable in any of the same countries; DSM6 does not name any form of pedophilia a disease. Other ""this is obviously legalizatuion of pedophilia"" cases may be included.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-04T15:40:39.000Z","2015-07-04T15:22:26.000Z","2035-07-03T22:00:00.000Z"
"Pedophilia will be legalized in 20 years or in DSM6, whichever comes LATER. Legalized in particular means: age-of-consent abolished completely in any single country of so-called First World (or whatever is analogous to that in 20 years); ownership and dis",1,,"jkadlubo","jkadlubo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-04T15:22:26.000Z","2015-07-04T15:22:26.000Z","2035-07-03T22:00:00.000Z"
"Pedophilia will be legalized in 20 years or in DSM6, whichever comes LATER. Legalized in particular means: age-of-consent abolished completely in any single country of so-called First World (or whatever is analogous to that in 20 years); ownership and dis",0,,"Raahul_Kumar","jkadlubo","I cannot imagine this is any country on the Planet Earth. Rather, age of consent will be raised in places where people are currently marrying children. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-04T23:23:00.000Z","2015-07-04T15:22:26.000Z","2035-07-03T22:00:00.000Z"
"The US to have at least 20 active nuclear submarines by the end of 2020. ",99,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T20:14:38.220Z","2015-07-07T18:43:34.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The US to have at least 20 active nuclear submarines by the end of 2020. ",99,,"Baeboo","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-13T00:14:25.919Z","2015-07-07T18:43:34.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The US to have at least 20 active nuclear submarines by the end of 2020. ",100,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-07T18:43:34.000Z","2015-07-07T18:43:34.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"President Trump will stand down from the presidential office",76,,"BillEBrogan","BillEBrogan",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T15:30:17.485Z","2020-11-12T15:30:17.476Z","2020-11-13T06:00:00.000Z"
"President Trump will stand down from the presidential office",100,,"Liging","BillEBrogan","IF legally he loses the electoral college",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-15T18:24:03.862Z","2020-11-12T15:30:17.476Z","2020-11-13T06:00:00.000Z"
"I will be top 10 on Metaculus leadeboard by end of 2024",95,,"Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland","","","Metaculus leaderboard","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T01:45:16.743Z","2020-11-26T03:45:21.688Z","2021-11-25T05:00:00.000Z"
"I will be top 10 on Metaculus leadeboard by end of 2024",40,,"Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland","","","Metaculus leaderboard","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T03:45:21.695Z","2020-11-26T03:45:21.688Z","2021-11-25T05:00:00.000Z"
"I will be top 10 on Metaculus leadeboard by end of 2024",10,,"Andreas S","Eli Lifland","","","Metaculus leaderboard","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T05:52:48.599Z","2020-11-26T03:45:21.688Z","2021-11-25T05:00:00.000Z"
"Avi gets a bachelor's degree from UW",5,,"avi","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-08T22:37:45.000Z","2017-04-08T17:03:37.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Avi gets a bachelor's degree from UW",50,,"playablecharacter","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-04-08T17:04:09.000Z","2017-04-08T17:03:37.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Avi gets a bachelor's degree from UW",75,,"playablecharacter","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-04-08T17:03:37.000Z","2017-04-08T17:03:37.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Uber CEO to actually buy Half a Million Autonomous Electric Cars from Tesla By 2020",20,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-10T06:18:51.000Z","2015-07-10T06:18:51.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Uber CEO to actually buy Half a Million Autonomous Electric Cars from Tesla By 2020",0,,"NickN","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-30T18:00:24.078Z","2015-07-10T06:18:51.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Freeman Dyson will become a centenarian",20,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-10T06:22:18.000Z","2015-07-10T06:22:18.000Z","2023-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Freeman Dyson will become a centenarian",25,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T13:52:01.000Z","2015-07-10T06:22:18.000Z","2023-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one Nobel Laureate in Physics will have become a centenarian by 2025",55,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-10T12:13:22.000Z","2015-07-10T06:23:27.000Z","2025-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one Nobel Laureate in Physics will have become a centenarian by 2025",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-10T06:23:27.000Z","2015-07-10T06:23:27.000Z","2025-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Quora will independently survive to 2025",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-10T06:31:48.000Z","2015-07-10T06:31:48.000Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Quora will independently survive to 2025",50,,"btrettel","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-10T13:34:51.000Z","2015-07-10T06:31:48.000Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Quora will independently survive to 2025",55,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T06:20:12.000Z","2015-07-10T06:31:48.000Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Dallas Cowboys will win a Super Bowl by 2018",15,,"SalTnutZ1","SalTnutZ1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-05T19:47:33.000Z","2015-07-05T19:47:33.000Z","2018-02-15T00:00:00.000Z"
"The Dallas Cowboys will win a Super Bowl by 2018",15,,"SalTnutZ1","SalTnutZ1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-05T19:48:12.000Z","2015-07-05T19:47:33.000Z","2018-02-15T00:00:00.000Z"
"The Dallas Cowboys will win a Super Bowl by 2018",12,,"JoshuaZ","SalTnutZ1","32 teams in league (so naive chance is 1-(31/32)^3 for three years. Slightly more since slightly better than average team. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-05T20:04:14.000Z","2015-07-05T19:47:33.000Z","2018-02-15T00:00:00.000Z"
"Tom Brady only plays for 2 more years",0,,"sears1468","clutetc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-04-08T08:45:50.000Z","2017-04-07T10:47:08.000Z","2017-04-07T20:19:00.000Z"
"Tom Brady only plays for 2 more years",0,,"sears1468","clutetc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-04-08T08:44:50.000Z","2017-04-07T10:47:08.000Z","2017-04-07T20:19:00.000Z"
"Tom Brady only plays for 2 more years",87,,"clutetc","clutetc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-04-07T10:47:08.000Z","2017-04-07T10:47:08.000Z","2017-04-07T20:19:00.000Z"
"Meat and/or dairy products from cellular agriculture will be commercially available by January 1st, 2030",60,,"Benjamin Rachbach","Mati Roy",,,"cellular-agriculture","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-05T04:53:32.801Z","2020-02-23T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Meat and/or dairy products from cellular agriculture will be commercially available by January 1st, 2030",65,,"Benjamin Rachbach","Mati Roy",,,"cellular-agriculture","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-05T04:53:59.705Z","2020-02-23T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Meat and/or dairy products from cellular agriculture will be commercially available by January 1st, 2030",85,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy","Prediction details at https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GkNjoGSruEayeAp87/predictions-made-by-mati-roy-in-early-2020",,"cellular-agriculture","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-23T00:00:00.000Z","2020-02-23T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The U.S. plant-based and cultured-based retail market will be worth more than 9bn 2020USD throughout 2029",40,,"Benjamin Rachbach","Mati Roy",,,"cellular-agriculture","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-05T04:54:12.973Z","2020-02-23T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The U.S. plant-based and cultured-based retail market will be worth more than 9bn 2020USD throughout 2029",52,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy","Prediction details at https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GkNjoGSruEayeAp87/predictions-made-by-mati-roy-in-early-2022",,"cellular-agriculture","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-23T00:00:00.000Z","2020-02-23T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Within twenty (20) years there will be an option of grouping predictions on PredictionBook, and finding the average right to wrong ratio of them",47,,"themusicgod1","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-08T19:48:34.000Z","2016-10-07T14:03:28.000Z","2036-10-07T20:03:28.000Z"
"Within twenty (20) years there will be an option of grouping predictions on PredictionBook, and finding the average right to wrong ratio of them",90,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T14:03:29.000Z","2016-10-07T14:03:28.000Z","2036-10-07T20:03:28.000Z"
"By January 1, 2031, known that there is no odd perfect number less than 10^2500",60,,"Jotto999","JoshuaZ","Interesting.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-06-13T00:33:55.000Z","2018-06-11T23:05:51.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2031, known that there is no odd perfect number less than 10^2500",65,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-06-11T23:05:51.000Z","2018-06-11T23:05:51.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2031, known that there is no odd perfect number less than 10^2500",59,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","More uncertain that this is a useful way of extrapolating growth. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T18:34:35.117Z","2018-06-11T23:05:51.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Certain friend will kill themselves this century",12,,"themusicgod1","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-04-02T01:48:36.000Z","2017-04-01T23:53:08.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Certain friend will kill themselves this century",20,,"playablecharacter","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-04-01T23:53:08.000Z","2017-04-01T23:53:08.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I believe that everyone my company is asking to verify I-9 forms is about to be laid off.  Along with those forms they will be asked to sign an ""employment at will"" form which will allow the company to lay them off with no severance.",99,,"drolma","drolma",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-06-08T17:20:11.000Z","2018-06-08T17:20:11.000Z","2018-09-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I believe that everyone my company is asking to verify I-9 forms is about to be laid off.  Along with those forms they will be asked to sign an ""employment at will"" form which will allow the company to lay them off with no severance.",50,,"Jotto999","drolma",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-06-09T16:17:47.000Z","2018-06-08T17:20:11.000Z","2018-09-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A new ministry will be created in the Russian government.
",56,,"themusicgod1","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-22T15:52:23.000Z","2016-09-22T14:40:59.000Z","2019-09-22T14:40:59.000Z"
"A new ministry will be created in the Russian government.
",90,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-22T14:40:59.000Z","2016-09-22T14:40:59.000Z","2019-09-22T14:40:59.000Z"
"The recession that began in 2008 in the US will not be ""over"" (arbitrarily defined by me as < 5% unemployment for three economic quarters) until 2023. ",80,,"deborama","deborama",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T17:48:53.000Z","2011-11-17T17:48:53.000Z","2024-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The recession that began in 2008 in the US will not be ""over"" (arbitrarily defined by me as < 5% unemployment for three economic quarters) until 2023. ",55,,"JoshuaZ","deborama","By the way there standard notions of recession. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T18:30:57.000Z","2011-11-17T17:48:53.000Z","2024-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Animal Welfare Standards Project a major success",49,,"themusicgod1","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-29T21:34:35.000Z","2017-08-29T19:20:35.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Animal Welfare Standards Project a major success",50,,"themusicgod1","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-29T21:34:23.000Z","2017-08-29T19:20:35.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Animal Welfare Standards Project a major success",5,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-29T19:20:35.000Z","2017-08-29T19:20:35.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No major attack attributable to Anonymous leading to mass death or @BiellaColeman still agrees ""Anonymous are not terrorists""",68,,"Athrithalix","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-23T11:03:34.000Z","2016-09-24T15:46:41.000Z","2018-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No major attack attributable to Anonymous leading to mass death or @BiellaColeman still agrees ""Anonymous are not terrorists""",74,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-24T15:46:41.000Z","2016-09-24T15:46:41.000Z","2018-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Jeanne Marchig Centre a major success",49,,"themusicgod1","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-29T21:34:49.000Z","2017-08-29T19:19:19.000Z","2027-04-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Jeanne Marchig Centre a major success",5,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-29T19:19:19.000Z","2017-08-29T19:19:19.000Z","2027-04-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will the modal response to the LSE forecasting event feedback survey be positive?",80,,"alexrjl","alexrjl","I mostly wrote this question to make sure I knew how to use Elicit. I spent 30s on this prediction and did not build a model or consider the outside view..","I intend to send out a google forms link post-talk, with questions about how to improve future talks. Some of the questions will ask participants to rate aspects of the talk Good/Neutral/Bad. Resolves positive if ""Good"" is the most common response.","LSE arete workshop","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-06T15:51:30.611Z","2020-12-06T15:51:30.604Z","2021-12-07T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the modal response to the LSE forecasting event feedback survey be positive?",50,,"Quratulain Z","alexrjl","Writing to test","I intend to send out a google forms link post-talk, with questions about how to improve future talks. Some of the questions will ask participants to rate aspects of the talk Good/Neutral/Bad. Resolves positive if ""Good"" is the most common response.","LSE arete workshop","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-06T16:13:25.189Z","2020-12-06T15:51:30.604Z","2021-12-07T00:00:00.000Z"
"In-person resumes at Google before 8/1/21",10,,"v","jungwon","- socialization will take several months for smooth transition back. I expect phased approach from soonest-possible (July 1)
- US will not be at herd vaccination threshold yet; employee/public/competitive pressures will encourage some buffer
- children/adolescents will esp. be under-vaccinated --> school closures and return-to-school will cause pressure to avoid return
- EOY 2021 more natural transition time

also: extremely unlikely international offices will all be re-opened by Aug 1 or that full (80+% workforce) return is mandatory, but I assume these are out of scope for q","","jbfriends","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-06T19:32:10.748Z","2020-12-01T17:16:21.490Z","2021-08-01T04:00:00.000Z"
"In-person resumes at Google before 8/1/21",0.1,,"v","jungwon","confirmed","","jbfriends","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T01:07:14.502Z","2020-12-01T17:16:21.490Z","2021-08-01T04:00:00.000Z"
"In-person resumes at Google before 8/1/21",60,,"jungwon","jungwon","https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/27/tech/google-work-from-home-extension/index.html","","jbfriends","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:24:30.372Z","2020-12-01T17:16:21.490Z","2021-08-01T04:00:00.000Z"
"Attainable Utility theory describes how people feel impacted",95,,"TurnTrout","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T03:36:25.090Z","2021-01-09T23:36:10.423Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Attainable Utility theory describes how people feel impacted",75,,"Raemon","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-11T18:16:29.611Z","2021-01-09T23:36:10.423Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Blue Origin's New Glenn to enter commercial service by the end of 2021.",15,,"Athrithalix","Athrithalix",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-14T13:36:24.000Z","2017-11-14T13:36:24.000Z","2021-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Blue Origin's New Glenn to enter commercial service by the end of 2021.",12,,"JoshuaZ","Athrithalix",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-13T17:08:01.933Z","2017-11-14T13:36:24.000Z","2021-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Github will not censor libreboot corresponding source code off its service",75,,"Glenn","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-26T14:59:35.000Z","2016-09-21T06:33:10.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Github will not censor libreboot corresponding source code off its service",75,,"Glenn","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-26T14:59:44.000Z","2016-09-21T06:33:10.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Github will not censor libreboot corresponding source code off its service",64,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-21T06:33:10.000Z","2016-09-21T06:33:10.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will graduate medical school",61,,"themusicgod1","nelson.horsley@gmail.com","https://www.aamc.org/download/102346/data/aibvol7no2.pdf
Odds are good if you're already in medical school. 
Then again, it's unclear what the odds are among those who know these odds, or whether I'm misreading your language.
",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-20T00:53:36.000Z","2016-09-18T03:48:36.000Z","2020-05-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will graduate medical school",70,,"nelson.horsley@gmail.com","nelson.horsley@gmail.com",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-18T03:48:36.000Z","2016-09-18T03:48:36.000Z","2020-05-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Knowledge organisation (as an extension/generalisation of services such as FullContact, Evernote) will become an important service in the next 5 years",83,,"pranomostro","raehik","Though the resolution criteria for this one are really hard to define.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-10-20T00:09:47.000Z","2018-10-13T14:03:57.000Z","2023-10-13T12:00:00.000Z"
"Knowledge organisation (as an extension/generalisation of services such as FullContact, Evernote) will become an important service in the next 5 years",70,,"raehik","raehik",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-10-13T14:03:58.000Z","2018-10-13T14:03:57.000Z","2023-10-13T12:00:00.000Z"
"Terrorism in the Middle East Will Decline By Half By 2040.",13,,"themusicgod1","PlacidPlatypus","climate change means more, not less instability",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-08T23:53:17.000Z","2017-08-08T14:30:49.000Z","2040-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Terrorism in the Middle East Will Decline By Half By 2040.",50,,"PlacidPlatypus","PlacidPlatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-08T14:30:49.000Z","2017-08-08T14:30:49.000Z","2040-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Utah in 2020",3.96,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Utah in 2020",4.21,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Texas in 2020",29.81,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Texas in 2020",39.34,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Rhode Island in 2020",92.31,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Rhode Island in 2020",99.92,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Virginia in 2020",89.32,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Virginia in 2020",98.99,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Open Phil makes a grant on wild animal suffering within five years.",47,,"themusicgod1","Michael Dickens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-07T01:37:02.000Z","2016-09-07T01:14:27.000Z","2021-09-07T01:14:27.000Z"
"Open Phil makes a grant on wild animal suffering within five years.",90,,"Michael Dickens","Michael Dickens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-07T01:14:27.000Z","2016-09-07T01:14:27.000Z","2021-09-07T01:14:27.000Z"
"60% of the worlds combustion engines will run on Biofuels by the end of 2022",4,,"themusicgod1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T22:10:27.000Z","2011-11-17T03:30:27.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"60% of the worlds combustion engines will run on Biofuels by the end of 2022",75,,"Harbinger1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T03:30:27.000Z","2011-11-17T03:30:27.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"at least 1 person executed for tor use, tor project social contract pivot not ruled out as contributing factor",2,,"gz4053","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-09T07:44:26.000Z","2016-09-04T17:12:44.000Z","2021-07-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"at least 1 person executed for tor use, tor project social contract pivot not ruled out as contributing factor",53,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-04T17:12:44.000Z","2016-09-04T17:12:44.000Z","2021-07-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Vermont in 2020",94.12,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Vermont in 2020",99.54,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Tennessee in 2020",3.96,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Tennessee in 2020",2.96,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins South Dakota in 2020",4,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins South Dakota in 2020",5.23,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins South Carolina in 2020",6.93,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins South Carolina in 2020",9.14,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Pennsylvania in 2020",58.65,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Pennsylvania in 2020",86.33,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Oregon in 2020",90.29,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Oregon in 2020",97.77,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Ohio in 2020",29.13,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Ohio in 2020",45.65,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Android studio morirá en dos años.
Flutter se corona como el sucesor,
Segun Juan.",80,,"jhairguz.t@gmail.com","jhairguz.t@gmail.com",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-23T02:43:39.000Z","2018-09-23T02:43:39.000Z","2020-09-23T02:43:39.000Z"
"Android studio morirá en dos años.
Flutter se corona como el sucesor,
Segun Juan.",60,,"keithmanaloto","jhairguz.t@gmail.com",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-25T17:40:27.143Z","2018-09-23T02:43:39.000Z","2020-09-23T02:43:39.000Z"
"
By 2092, any orbital solar power stations will still be for space applications, and not ground use (eg. beaming it down as microwaves) --Charles Stross",60,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:11:27.266Z","2012-01-14T05:21:33.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"
By 2092, any orbital solar power stations will still be for space applications, and not ground use (eg. beaming it down as microwaves) --Charles Stross",66,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-19T20:11:20.675Z","2012-01-14T05:21:33.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"
By 2092, any orbital solar power stations will still be for space applications, and not ground use (eg. beaming it down as microwaves) --Charles Stross",70,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-14T05:21:33.000Z","2012-01-14T05:21:33.000Z","2092-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins North Dakota in 2020",3.96,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins North Dakota in 2020",2.26,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins New York in 2020",91.26,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins New York in 2020",99.99,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins NE-3 in 2020",1.96,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT. (R = NA, it was replaced with 100 to facilitate the math)",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins NE-3 in 2020",0.02,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Mississippi in 2020",6.8,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Mississippi in 2020",8.52,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Michigan in 2020",68.57,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Michigan in 2020",94.92,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Maine in 2020",87.38,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Maine in 2020",90.5,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Iowa in 2020",25.96,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Iowa in 2020",38.73,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Some technology invented after 2017 that actually scares me.",60,,"two2thehead","themusicgod1","3d printing viruses should count. But this seems to depend on what you (themusicgod1) considers scary.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-29T12:02:01.000Z","2016-08-29T11:41:33.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Some technology invented after 2017 that actually scares me.",71,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-29T11:41:33.000Z","2016-08-29T11:41:33.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"61%+ unemployment, 96%+ water unsafe, over 75k homeless, over 50% of them children, <6 hours/day of electricity in gaza
(at least 3 of the above)",6,,"NickN","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-21T17:36:52.568Z","2016-08-28T20:42:59.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"61%+ unemployment, 96%+ water unsafe, over 75k homeless, over 50% of them children, <6 hours/day of electricity in gaza
(at least 3 of the above)",53,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-28T20:42:59.000Z","2016-08-28T20:42:59.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2029, the ""worldwide classroom"" (WC) will be a standard in education in over 190 countries worldwide.",80,,"Harbinger1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T01:54:44.000Z","2011-11-17T01:54:44.000Z","2029-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2029, the ""worldwide classroom"" (WC) will be a standard in education in over 190 countries worldwide.",53,,"themusicgod1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T21:57:59.000Z","2011-11-17T01:54:44.000Z","2029-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first  ""worldwide classroom"" will be setup on the Internet and will revolutionize learning potentials by double the rate of college bound graduates by 2026. ",53,,"themusicgod1","Harbinger1","""double the rate of college bound graduates""
ie ""double the rejection rate of colleges""
wtg.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T21:57:35.000Z","2011-11-17T01:51:41.000Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z"
"The first  ""worldwide classroom"" will be setup on the Internet and will revolutionize learning potentials by double the rate of college bound graduates by 2026. ",70,,"Harbinger1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T01:51:41.000Z","2011-11-17T01:51:41.000Z","2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Georgia in 2020",41.35,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-18T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Georgia in 2020",58.9,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-18T00:00:00.000Z"
"I will become a famous singer",0,,"Gibs","Uisaria",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-12T20:29:29.000Z","2017-11-06T20:39:00.000Z","2027-11-06T20:39:00.000Z"
"I will become a famous singer",65,,"Uisaria","Uisaria",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-06T20:39:00.000Z","2017-11-06T20:39:00.000Z","2027-11-06T20:39:00.000Z"
"I am diagnosed with Parkinson's disease",4,,"Michael Dickens","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-07-14T22:17:16.000Z","2017-07-13T09:34:46.000Z","2030-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"I am diagnosed with Parkinson's disease",4,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1","I will not forget to take into account base rate. I will not forget to take into account base rate. I will not forget to take into account base rate.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-07-13T22:10:13.000Z","2017-07-13T09:34:46.000Z","2030-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"I am diagnosed with Parkinson's disease",21,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-07-13T09:34:46.000Z","2017-07-13T09:34:46.000Z","2030-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Open Phil makes a grant to support clean meat within 5 years.",75,,"Michael Dickens","Michael Dickens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-01T03:24:44.000Z","2017-07-11T00:54:31.000Z","2022-07-11T00:54:31.000Z"
"Open Phil makes a grant to support clean meat within 5 years.",51,,"themusicgod1","Michael Dickens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-07-13T22:11:18.000Z","2017-07-11T00:54:31.000Z","2022-07-11T00:54:31.000Z"
"Open Phil makes a grant to support clean meat within 5 years.",70,,"Michael Dickens","Michael Dickens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-07-11T00:54:31.000Z","2017-07-11T00:54:31.000Z","2022-07-11T00:54:31.000Z"
"Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 100 years. ",45,,"pranomostro","jazzsolo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-06T18:52:12.751Z","2018-12-03T21:27:26.826Z","2118-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 100 years. ",99,,"jazzsolo","jazzsolo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-03T21:27:26.831Z","2018-12-03T21:27:26.826Z","2118-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 100 years. ",60,,"pranomostro","jazzsolo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-06T18:51:41.526Z","2018-12-03T21:27:26.826Z","2118-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Not more than 100 mio. people will have died of attacks by nuclear weapons by 2061.",80,,"MultiplyByZer0","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-23T22:23:12.000Z","2018-09-19T09:49:12.000Z","2061-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Not more than 100 mio. people will have died of attacks by nuclear weapons by 2061.",90,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-19T09:49:12.000Z","2018-09-19T09:49:12.000Z","2061-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Data published by Cisco in 2018 or 2019 about total volume of IP traffic per month in 2018 will show an amount more than 10% higher than their prediction of 151 EB.",49,,"themusicgod1","Vipul Naik",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-05T20:03:57.000Z","2017-11-04T23:47:12.000Z","2020-01-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"Data published by Cisco in 2018 or 2019 about total volume of IP traffic per month in 2018 will show an amount more than 10% higher than their prediction of 151 EB.",42,,"Vipul Naik","Vipul Naik",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-04T23:47:12.000Z","2017-11-04T23:47:12.000Z","2020-01-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"51%+ of remaining humanity are muslims",2,,"gz4053","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-09T07:44:59.000Z","2016-09-03T14:17:32.000Z","2046-09-03T12:00:00.000Z"
"51%+ of remaining humanity are muslims",3,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-03T14:17:32.000Z","2016-09-03T14:17:32.000Z","2046-09-03T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will step on Mars before I die",4,,"themusicgod1","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-19T11:55:36.000Z","2017-06-19T02:38:42.000Z","2117-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will step on Mars before I die",3,,"bobpage","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-19T02:38:42.000Z","2017-06-19T02:38:42.000Z","2117-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Consumer devices with 100 Gbit/s transfer speeds"" in 2018",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T01:44:45.000Z","2010-10-18T17:07:12.000Z","2019-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Consumer devices with 100 Gbit/s transfer speeds"" in 2018",20,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-18T17:07:12.000Z","2010-10-18T17:07:12.000Z","2019-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Robot insect spies are in military use"" in 2018",80,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-10-18T17:03:58.000Z","2010-10-18T17:03:55.000Z","2019-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Robot insect spies are in military use"" in 2018",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T01:42:47.000Z","2010-10-18T17:03:55.000Z","2019-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Holly Holm will beat Ronda Rousey in their rematch.",75,,"aseyfarth","EloiseRosen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-26T14:09:22.000Z","2015-12-03T21:31:03.000Z","2017-12-04T09:00:00.000Z"
"Holly Holm will beat Ronda Rousey in their rematch.",68,,"EloiseRosen","EloiseRosen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-03T21:31:03.000Z","2015-12-03T21:31:03.000Z","2017-12-04T09:00:00.000Z"
"BuzzFeed to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",30,,"unexpectedEOF","InquilineKea","I think some other form of bite-sized ""journalism"" will come around by then and displace it.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-14T17:53:16.000Z","2015-07-15T21:01:13.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"BuzzFeed to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-15T21:01:14.000Z","2015-07-15T21:01:13.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins New Hampshire in 2020",88.83,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins New Hampshire in 2020",76.47,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Solar power to become cheaper than or equivalent to conventional coal prices over the next three years and reach Rs 4/kWh-Rs4.5/kWh by FY18, says India Ratings and Research. ",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-24T12:58:49.000Z","2015-09-24T12:58:49.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Solar power to become cheaper than or equivalent to conventional coal prices over the next three years and reach Rs 4/kWh-Rs4.5/kWh by FY18, says India Ratings and Research. ",65,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-24T13:32:44.000Z","2015-09-24T12:58:49.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bicycling mortality rate in US will be above 0.16 in 2020",50,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-22T19:13:31.000Z","2015-08-22T19:13:31.000Z","2021-01-02T11:00:00.000Z"
"Bicycling mortality rate in US will be above 0.16 in 2020",45,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-22T20:47:13.000Z","2015-08-22T19:13:31.000Z","2021-01-02T11:00:00.000Z"
"Bicycling mortality rate in US will be above 0.16 in 2020",45,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-22T20:47:14.000Z","2015-08-22T19:13:31.000Z","2021-01-02T11:00:00.000Z"
"Bicycling mortality rate in US will be above 0.16 in 2020",55,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-24T22:27:49.000Z","2015-08-22T19:13:31.000Z","2021-01-02T11:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""34+35"" by Ariana Grande, #8 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #9 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",51,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-11T23:45:11.171Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""34+35"" by Ariana Grande, #8 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #9 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",46,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-11T23:44:26.552Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""34+35"" by Ariana Grande, #8 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #9 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",65,,"Eli Lifland","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T18:31:46.018Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Bicycling mortality rate in US will be above 0.09 in 2040",50,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-24T22:29:51.000Z","2015-08-24T22:29:51.000Z","2041-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Bicycling mortality rate in US will be above 0.09 in 2040",45,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-24T22:57:53.000Z","2015-08-24T22:29:51.000Z","2041-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins New Jersey in 2020",99.24,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins New Jersey in 2020",92.23,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins New Mexico in 2020",97.65,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins New Mexico in 2020",88.24,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat total exports in world markets to be 3.5% by 2020, doubling it in five years. USD 900 billion by 2020, almost double from USD 461 billion in 2013-14. -High Commissioner Vijay Thakur Singh",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-27T07:19:14.000Z","2015-09-27T07:19:14.000Z","2020-12-26T10:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat total exports in world markets to be 3.5% by 2020, doubling it in five years. USD 900 billion by 2020, almost double from USD 461 billion in 2013-14. -High Commissioner Vijay Thakur Singh",50,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar","Because of this year's terrible results, forced to reduce the odds. It could, however, be a oneoff that doesn't mean anything. Still very bad news though, the prediction isn't on track.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-05T13:04:05.000Z","2015-09-27T07:19:14.000Z","2020-12-26T10:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat total exports in world markets to be 3.5% by 2020, doubling it in five years. USD 900 billion by 2020, almost double from USD 461 billion in 2013-14. -High Commissioner Vijay Thakur Singh",45,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-27T11:58:58.000Z","2015-09-27T07:19:14.000Z","2020-12-26T10:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will produce 2.4—2.5 million tonne aluminium in 2015-16 and be ranked 3rd or 4th in the world from 2.1 million in 2014. ",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-27T07:17:20.000Z","2015-09-27T07:17:20.000Z","2016-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will produce 2.4—2.5 million tonne aluminium in 2015-16 and be ranked 3rd or 4th in the world from 2.1 million in 2014. ",35,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-27T11:59:11.000Z","2015-09-27T07:17:20.000Z","2016-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will get compensation >= $3k within next 8 years because of my arrest at the protest #no_research",34,,"themusicgod1","crabman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-18T11:47:16.000Z","2017-06-18T08:06:11.000Z","2025-06-13T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will get compensation >= $3k within next 8 years because of my arrest at the protest #no_research",10,,"crabman","crabman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-18T08:06:11.000Z","2017-06-18T08:06:11.000Z","2025-06-13T12:00:00.000Z"
"Some new form factor than cell phones/handheld robots start to credibly threaten the dominance of cell phones/handheld robots/laptops/tablets/desktop for near term future",35,,"PseudonymousUser","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-23T02:19:30.000Z","2017-06-18T00:33:25.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Some new form factor than cell phones/handheld robots start to credibly threaten the dominance of cell phones/handheld robots/laptops/tablets/desktop for near term future",65,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-18T00:33:25.000Z","2017-06-18T00:33:25.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be shortages of COVID-19 vaccine in the US",100,,"lettergram","srconstantin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T16:23:27.071Z","2020-11-16T14:09:01.974Z","2021-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be shortages of COVID-19 vaccine in the US",55,,"srconstantin","srconstantin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-16T14:09:01.995Z","2020-11-16T14:09:01.974Z","2021-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Tech - Betfair resolves the 2020 US Presidential Election Next President market by the end of the 25th of November 2020.",0,,"lettergram","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T16:23:09.644Z","2020-11-18T20:03:23.161Z","2020-11-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Tech - Betfair resolves the 2020 US Presidential Election Next President market by the end of the 25th of November 2020.",75,,"jbeshir","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T20:03:23.165Z","2020-11-18T20:03:23.161Z","2020-11-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Russian boots on the ground in active combat operations in Lithuania",2,,"blackRust","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-29T05:51:02.862Z","2016-07-25T01:51:36.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russian boots on the ground in active combat operations in Lithuania",5,,"blackRust","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-02T15:19:22.000Z","2016-07-25T01:51:36.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russian boots on the ground in active combat operations in Lithuania",24,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-25T01:51:36.000Z","2016-07-25T01:51:36.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The average healthy, non-smoking, physically active male reader of Reddit now in his early 30s will  live long enough to experience a Singularity and in some manner escape the bonds of traditional mortality.",10,,"Pablo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T05:27:35.000Z","2012-10-01T05:27:34.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The average healthy, non-smoking, physically active male reader of Reddit now in his early 30s will  live long enough to experience a Singularity and in some manner escape the bonds of traditional mortality.",46,,"themusicgod1","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:24:40.000Z","2012-10-01T05:27:34.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I eat at/from Sliver more than any other restaurant in Q4 2020",50,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,personal","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I eat at/from Sliver more than any other restaurant in Q4 2020",30,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""Given the substantial chance that things have changed a lot or there is equal amounts of eating at all restaurants, I’ll sell this to 30%.""",,"ssc,personal","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Arizona in 2020",52.88,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-18T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Arizona in 2020",69.69,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-18T00:00:00.000Z"
"The Pfizer covid vaccine will have received emergency use authorization.",5,,"Baeboo","Justinthere",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T01:55:46.639Z","2020-11-20T20:03:54.032Z","2020-11-23T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Pfizer covid vaccine will have received emergency use authorization.",25,,"Justinthere","Justinthere",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:03:54.036Z","2020-11-20T20:03:54.032Z","2020-11-23T12:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Alaska in 2020",10.78,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Alaska in 2020",15.03,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"New medical breakthrough will revolutionize battlefield care by late 2020.",50,,"themusicgod1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T21:40:21.000Z","2011-11-17T01:14:46.000Z","2020-11-30T01:14:46.000Z"
"New medical breakthrough will revolutionize battlefield care by late 2020.",65,,"Harbinger1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T01:14:46.000Z","2011-11-17T01:14:46.000Z","2020-11-30T01:14:46.000Z"
"Mike Pence will become President before Joe Biden does",5,,"seanbas","seanbas",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-21T14:47:26.424Z","2020-11-21T14:47:26.422Z","2021-01-21T12:00:00.000Z"
"Mike Pence will become President before Joe Biden does",2,,"JoshuaZ","seanbas",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-22T19:34:26.531Z","2020-11-21T14:47:26.422Z","2021-01-21T12:00:00.000Z"
"A ""theory of everything"" combining quantum mechanics and general relativity found by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",12,,"Pablo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T13:47:47.000Z","2012-10-01T13:47:47.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A ""theory of everything"" combining quantum mechanics and general relativity found by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",71,,"themusicgod1","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:32:26.000Z","2012-10-01T13:47:47.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Classical digital computers will never be phenomenally conscious. -- David Pearce",10,,"Pablo","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-01T16:31:38.000Z","2012-10-01T16:31:38.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Classical digital computers will never be phenomenally conscious. -- David Pearce",46,,"themusicgod1","Pablo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:36:32.000Z","2012-10-01T16:31:38.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"by 2037, a devastating earthquake has hit the west coast of the United States",35,,"pranomostro","gwern","14 of Magnitude 7+ in the area.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-10T21:00:53.391Z","2010-09-27T21:31:44.000Z","2037-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"by 2037, a devastating earthquake has hit the west coast of the United States",20,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-09-27T21:31:45.000Z","2010-09-27T21:31:44.000Z","2037-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""I Hope"" by Gabby Barrett Featuring Charlie Puth, #5 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #6 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",52,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-11T23:44:21.189Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""I Hope"" by Gabby Barrett Featuring Charlie Puth, #5 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #6 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",54,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-11T23:45:04.104Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will ""I Hope"" by Gabby Barrett Featuring Charlie Puth, #5 on the Billboard Hot 100 released on 10 Nov 2021, be at least #6 when the Billboard Top 100 is updated on Tuesday, 17 Nov? [Hot 100 internal tournament]",58,,"Eli Lifland","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T18:30:58.127Z","2020-11-11T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-17T00:00:00.000Z"
"Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 30 years.",45,,"pranomostro","jazzsolo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-06T18:52:18.781Z","2018-12-03T21:26:24.981Z","2048-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 30 years.",60,,"pranomostro","jazzsolo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-06T18:51:48.617Z","2018-12-03T21:26:24.981Z","2048-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 30 years.",99,,"jazzsolo","jazzsolo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-03T21:26:24.989Z","2018-12-03T21:26:24.981Z","2048-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, at least 30% of new cars sold in Norway will be electric.",55,,"JoshuaZ","silacoid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-10T12:14:06.000Z","2015-07-10T09:30:54.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, at least 30% of new cars sold in Norway will be electric.",80,,"silacoid","silacoid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-10T09:30:54.000Z","2015-07-10T09:30:54.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, at least one mainly self-driving privately owned car will be legally driven on the Norwegian main roads.",80,,"silacoid","silacoid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-10T09:33:06.000Z","2015-07-10T09:33:06.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, at least one mainly self-driving privately owned car will be legally driven on the Norwegian main roads.",65,,"JoshuaZ","silacoid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-10T12:08:39.000Z","2015-07-10T09:33:06.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Tablet market will grow 5x in 5 years (424.9 million units by 2017)  --NPD",47,,"themusicgod1","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T00:53:19.000Z","2012-05-09T06:32:02.000Z","2018-03-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Tablet market will grow 5x in 5 years (424.9 million units by 2017)  --NPD",33,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-09T06:32:02.000Z","2012-05-09T06:32:02.000Z","2018-03-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The primary reason for the discovery of STUXNET was the Israeli modification of the source code.",60,,"elephantower","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-08T04:50:54.000Z","2016-07-07T23:51:02.000Z","2066-07-08T07:00:00.000Z"
"The primary reason for the discovery of STUXNET was the Israeli modification of the source code.",80,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-07T23:51:02.000Z","2016-07-07T23:51:02.000Z","2066-07-08T07:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on Egypt Flight 804 being a terrorist plot, the weak link will not be France or French airport security ",60,,"elephantower","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-07T16:05:37.000Z","2016-07-07T11:53:17.000Z","2021-06-16T07:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on Egypt Flight 804 being a terrorist plot, the weak link will not be France or French airport security ",90,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-07T11:53:17.000Z","2016-07-07T11:53:17.000Z","2021-06-16T07:00:00.000Z"
"No human genome will be completely sequenced in the next 5 years.",30,,"lettergram","aoeu",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-27T18:16:03.000Z","2017-10-23T19:43:27.000Z","2022-10-24T21:00:00.000Z"
"No human genome will be completely sequenced in the next 5 years.",30,,"aoeu","aoeu",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-23T19:43:27.000Z","2017-10-23T19:43:27.000Z","2022-10-24T21:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on Anders Behring Breivik's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a *higher than average probability* of having Narcissistic Personality Disorder",6,,"themusicgod1","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-05T16:42:25.000Z","2016-07-05T15:26:56.000Z","2066-07-05T07:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on Anders Behring Breivik's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a *higher than average probability* of having Narcissistic Personality Disorder",99,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-05T15:26:56.000Z","2016-07-05T15:26:56.000Z","2066-07-05T07:00:00.000Z"
"Starship reaches orbit by 2021",20,,"Bucky","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Starship reaches orbit by 2021",40,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Crew Dragon reaches orbit by 2021",90,,"Bucky","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Crew Dragon reaches orbit by 2021",80,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Bitcoin is above $10,000 on 2021/1/1",20,,"Bucky","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,crypto","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Bitcoin is above $10,000 on 2021/1/1",20,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,crypto","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I will enjoy the new Star Wars movie as much as the original.",80,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","bhh322",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-04T04:20:07.000Z","2015-11-28T16:30:33.000Z","2016-01-06T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will enjoy the new Star Wars movie as much as the original.",75,,"bhh322","bhh322",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-28T16:30:33.000Z","2015-11-28T16:30:33.000Z","2016-01-06T12:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Oklahoma in 2020",2.97,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Oklahoma in 2020",0.58,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"The Stack Exchange Network will operate through 2025-07-01",80,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-10T13:28:47.000Z","2015-07-10T13:28:47.000Z","2025-07-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"The Stack Exchange Network will operate through 2025-07-01",80,,"InquilineKea","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-10T23:57:08.000Z","2015-07-10T13:28:47.000Z","2025-07-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"R(5,5) known by January 1, 2052",55,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-24T19:20:57.000Z","2015-09-24T19:20:57.000Z","2052-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"R(5,5) known by January 1, 2052",60,,"danielfilan","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-26T11:09:50.000Z","2015-09-24T19:20:57.000Z","2052-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 20 people predict on the AGI post in November?",75,"YES","Andreas S","Amanda N","","","users-Nov,LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-14T00:22:49.996Z","2020-11-14T00:21:24.649Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 20 people predict on the AGI post in November?",70,"YES","Amanda N","Amanda N","","","users-Nov,LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-14T00:26:21.785Z","2020-11-14T00:21:24.649Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Deepmind claims to pass the Turing test by the end of 2023",70,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-17T07:47:08.639Z","2020-02-14T05:49:26.005Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Deepmind claims to pass the Turing test by the end of 2023",60,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-14T05:49:26.007Z","2020-02-14T05:49:26.005Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Deepmind claims to pass the Turing test by the end of 2023",80,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-10T07:36:46.834Z","2020-02-14T05:49:26.005Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Deepmind claims to pass the Turing test by the end of 2023",75,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-06T10:09:21.490Z","2020-02-14T05:49:26.005Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Deepmind claims to pass the Turing test by the end of 2023",65,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-01T12:10:44.325Z","2020-02-14T05:49:26.005Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Deepmind claims to pass the Turing test by the end of 2023",55,,"pranomostro","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-14T14:50:19.528Z","2020-02-14T05:49:26.005Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Tuition at Harvard to be more expensive in 2020 than it is in 2015",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T05:45:40.000Z","2015-07-11T05:45:40.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Tuition at Harvard to be more expensive in 2020 than it is in 2015",75,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T13:52:45.000Z","2015-07-11T05:45:40.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will get a list article published at Cracked.com by 31/12/2020.",5,,"najdorf","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-06T23:30:18.000Z","2013-02-06T23:30:18.000Z","2020-12-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"I will get a list article published at Cracked.com by 31/12/2020.",1,,"Tuxedage","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-07T01:31:13.000Z","2013-02-06T23:30:18.000Z","2020-12-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"Iceland will become a major port for goods transported across the Northwest Passage.",70,,"halfwaytogallifrey","halfwaytogallifrey",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-02-11T08:00:42.000Z","2013-02-11T08:00:42.000Z","2028-02-11T08:00:42.000Z"
"Iceland will become a major port for goods transported across the Northwest Passage.",54,,"themusicgod1","halfwaytogallifrey",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T15:00:32.000Z","2013-02-11T08:00:42.000Z","2028-02-11T08:00:42.000Z"
"Univision will survive as a free over the air station until 2016",55,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-10T02:00:40.000Z","2013-04-10T02:00:40.000Z","2016-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Univision will survive as a free over the air station until 2016",58,,"themusicgod1","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-01T01:12:42.000Z","2013-04-10T02:00:40.000Z","2016-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The fusion energy gain factor of a fusion reactor will reach a Q >= 1 before January 1st 2044, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins.",78,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy","Actually, IIUC, we already have a Q_ext of 1.25, which means we could have a Q of >=1 if we used tritium (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor).",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-24T17:23:06.567Z","2020-02-23T18:04:47.845Z","2044-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The fusion energy gain factor of a fusion reactor will reach a Q >= 1 before January 1st 2044, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins.",70,,"pranomostro","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-05T23:19:23.138Z","2020-02-23T18:04:47.845Z","2044-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The fusion energy gain factor of a fusion reactor will reach a Q >= 1 before January 1st 2044, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins.",50,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-23T18:04:47.849Z","2020-02-23T18:04:47.845Z","2044-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A fusion reactor will reach ignition before January 1st 2051, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins.",50,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-23T18:05:35.405Z","2020-02-23T18:05:35.400Z","2051-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A fusion reactor will reach ignition before January 1st 2051, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins.",65,,"pranomostro","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-05T23:19:34.248Z","2020-02-23T18:05:35.400Z","2051-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"RSA with < v = 1024 bit key sizes to decipherable by government agencies with a couple of weeks or less effort by 2070.",55,,"a0c4a123f7","a0c4a123f7",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-04-18T20:08:15.000Z","2013-04-18T20:08:15.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"RSA with < v = 1024 bit key sizes to decipherable by government agencies with a couple of weeks or less effort by 2070.",54,,"themusicgod1","a0c4a123f7","JoshuaZ if non-governments can do it within a couple of weeks, governments will be able to do it in less.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T15:07:43.000Z","2013-04-18T20:08:15.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google Nexus tablets survive longer than Microsoft Surface tablets as a business",60,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-03T11:19:39.000Z","2013-05-03T11:19:39.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google Nexus tablets survive longer than Microsoft Surface tablets as a business",50,,"two2thehead","RandomThinker","I am not a veteran predictor by any means, but this seems rather vague to me. I say 50/50 split because Microsoft appears to be moving into the hardware market AND own-brand devices appear to be one of the trends of the future.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-07T02:19:21.000Z","2013-05-03T11:19:39.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Google Nexus tablets survive longer than Microsoft Surface tablets as a business",40,,"two2thehead","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-09T15:20:50.000Z","2013-05-03T11:19:39.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins North Carolina in 2020",48.08,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-18T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins North Carolina in 2020",64.67,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-18T00:00:00.000Z"
"[Personal] I will get a cat (more likely a pair of buddies) before 2025.",75,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","sungk2048",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-14T06:26:15.404Z","2020-01-18T22:21:18.824Z","2025-01-19T09:21:18.000Z"
"[Personal] I will get a cat (more likely a pair of buddies) before 2025.",75,,"sungk2048","sungk2048",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-18T22:21:18.829Z","2020-01-18T22:21:18.824Z","2025-01-19T09:21:18.000Z"
"[Personal] I will get a cat (more likely a pair of buddies) before 2025.",63,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","sungk2048",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-15T07:55:22.304Z","2020-01-18T22:21:18.824Z","2025-01-19T09:21:18.000Z"
"Meta-prediction: I win my predictions bet with David Manheim https://twitter.com/peterhurford/status/1217795302821896193",20,,"peter_hurford","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-17T13:02:43.784Z","2020-01-17T13:02:43.780Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Meta-prediction: I win my predictions bet with David Manheim https://twitter.com/peterhurford/status/1217795302821896193",30,,"pranomostro","peter_hurford","Very small sample size, much randomness.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-17T15:41:27.155Z","2020-01-17T13:02:43.780Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Marijuana will be rescheduled to a Schedule II drug by 2020",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T05:46:59.000Z","2015-07-11T05:46:59.000Z","2021-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Marijuana will be rescheduled to a Schedule II drug by 2020",30,,"NathanMcKnight","InquilineKea","I'd say 70% that it'll be rescheduled by 2020, and Schedule II is the likeliest...but it could also be Schedule III, or unscheduled altogether.  ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-02T15:35:16.000Z","2015-07-11T05:46:59.000Z","2021-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Scotland will announce an independence referendum in 2020",30,,"peter_hurford","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-15T16:46:12.065Z","2020-01-15T16:46:12.061Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Scotland will announce an independence referendum in 2020",20,,"pranomostro","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-17T16:14:54.308Z","2020-01-15T16:46:12.061Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Scotland will announce an independence referendum in 2020",5,,"peter_hurford","peter_hurford","The Good Judgement Open forecast is 5% https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1494-before-1-january-2021-will-a-date-be-set-for-a-referendum-on-scotland-s-status-within-the-united-kingdom",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-18T22:14:55.809Z","2020-01-15T16:46:12.061Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump meets with Kim in 2020",30,,"peter_hurford","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-15T16:39:09.456Z","2020-01-15T16:39:09.451Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump meets with Kim in 2020",20,,"pranomostro","peter_hurford","Baserate rather low & Trump might be more interested in campaigning anyway",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-17T16:16:12.313Z","2020-01-15T16:39:09.451Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump meets with Kim in 2020",14,,"peter_hurford","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-06T15:06:13.992Z","2020-01-15T16:39:09.451Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The states (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact have less combined electoral votes at the end of 2020 than they did in 2019",35,,"peter_hurford","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-15T16:21:19.754Z","2020-01-15T16:21:19.750Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The states (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact have less combined electoral votes at the end of 2020 than they did in 2019",20,,"pranomostro","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-17T16:32:16.621Z","2020-01-15T16:21:19.750Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US energy consumption per capita will be above 400 Million Btu at any time from 2016 through 2050",10,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-05T19:41:07.000Z","2015-09-05T19:41:07.000Z","2051-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"US energy consumption per capita will be above 400 Million Btu at any time from 2016 through 2050",15,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-05T19:47:41.000Z","2015-09-05T19:41:07.000Z","2051-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Within 30 years, the University of Maine will have a PhD program in mathematics (this does not count interdisciplinary with math). ",60,,"Josh Holland","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-05T09:27:11.000Z","2015-10-04T11:49:53.000Z","2045-10-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within 30 years, the University of Maine will have a PhD program in mathematics (this does not count interdisciplinary with math). ",60,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-04T11:49:53.000Z","2015-10-04T11:49:53.000Z","2045-10-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alexei Navalny becomes president or prime minister of Russia by the year 2028.",50,,"ArisKatsaris","ArisKatsaris",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-26T23:01:35.000Z","2013-07-26T23:01:35.000Z","2028-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Alexei Navalny becomes president or prime minister of Russia by the year 2028.",55,,"JoshuaZ","ArisKatsaris",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-27T14:24:15.000Z","2013-07-26T23:01:35.000Z","2028-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"<i>To the Stars</i>: Homura will achieve peace when Madoka manages to manifest in reality.",60,,"linkhyrule5","linkhyrule5",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-10T22:13:17.000Z","2013-07-27T02:34:18.000Z","2020-01-01T20:16:08.000Z"
"<i>To the Stars</i>: Homura will achieve peace when Madoka manages to manifest in reality.",75,,"linkhyrule5","linkhyrule5",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-07-27T02:34:18.000Z","2013-07-27T02:34:18.000Z","2020-01-01T20:16:08.000Z"
"<i>To the Stars</i>: Homura will achieve peace when Madoka manages to manifest in reality.",20,,"DaFranker","linkhyrule5","Haven't kept up with the 'fic in a while, but considering the sheer amount of various other possible things the author might think of...",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-23T18:33:53.000Z","2013-07-27T02:34:18.000Z","2020-01-01T20:16:08.000Z"
"Major Atmospheric Cerenkov Experiment Telescope, the world's 2nd largest γ ray telescope will be completed in 2017",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-27T07:30:08.000Z","2015-09-27T07:30:08.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Major Atmospheric Cerenkov Experiment Telescope, the world's 2nd largest γ ray telescope will be completed in 2017",75,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-27T11:58:32.000Z","2015-09-27T07:30:08.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"MDMA will be rescheduled to a Schedule II drug by 2020 ",25,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T05:54:59.000Z","2015-07-11T05:54:59.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"MDMA will be rescheduled to a Schedule II drug by 2020 ",5,,"NathanMcKnight","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-03T21:56:17.000Z","2015-07-11T05:54:59.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I write the post scoring these predictions before 2/1/21",70,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,personal","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I write the post scoring these predictions before 2/1/21",55,,"JP Addison","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,personal","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-27T17:39:59.174Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Total number of free app downloads in all ecosystems 2017 is not published",80,,"moyamo","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-15T12:10:44.000Z","2016-07-08T16:19:07.000Z","2018-10-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Total number of free app downloads in all ecosystems 2017 is not published",60,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-08T16:19:08.000Z","2016-07-08T16:19:07.000Z","2018-10-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"From Jan 1, 2017 to Jan 1, 2019, If I encounter any 10$ USD bills, more than half of them will have been printed since 2013",50,,"elephantower","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-09T02:38:41.000Z","2016-07-08T16:17:13.000Z","2019-01-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"From Jan 1, 2017 to Jan 1, 2019, If I encounter any 10$ USD bills, more than half of them will have been printed since 2013",57,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-08T16:17:13.000Z","2016-07-08T16:17:13.000Z","2019-01-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Nevada in 2020",75.73,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Nevada in 2020",87.09,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Nebraska in 2020",4.85,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Nebraska in 2020",0.59,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"2020 California summer crops will fail (<= 75% of [<=$28.5 billion] 2018 harvest income according to USDA).",52,,"pranomostro","EnergyParade",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-06T16:03:47.095Z","2020-02-26T16:54:37.490Z","2021-04-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"2020 California summer crops will fail (<= 75% of [<=$28.5 billion] 2018 harvest income according to USDA).",60,,"EnergyParade","EnergyParade",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-26T16:54:37.494Z","2020-02-26T16:54:37.490Z","2021-04-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be less people cryogenically frozen in China than in the US by 2028.",75,,"Baeboo","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T19:23:57.884Z","2018-09-02T10:37:49.000Z","2028-08-13T08:00:00.000Z"
"There will be less people cryogenically frozen in China than in the US by 2028.",90,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-02T10:37:49.000Z","2018-09-02T10:37:49.000Z","2028-08-13T08:00:00.000Z"
"The masked singer season 3 kitty is Maisie Williams ",40,,"pranomostro","Ianharrison",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-11T10:29:33.813Z","2020-03-08T05:32:28.353Z","2020-06-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"The masked singer season 3 kitty is Maisie Williams ",75,,"Ianharrison","Ianharrison",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-08T05:32:28.357Z","2020-03-08T05:32:28.353Z","2020-06-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Masked Singer season 3 Kangaroo is Iggy Izalia",55,,"pranomostro","Ianharrison",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-11T10:29:36.532Z","2020-03-08T05:34:54.134Z","2020-05-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Masked Singer season 3 Kangaroo is Iggy Izalia",99,,"Ianharrison","Ianharrison",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-08T05:34:54.138Z","2020-03-08T05:34:54.134Z","2020-05-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Masked Singer season 3 Turtle is Nick Jonas",80,,"Ianharrison","Ianharrison",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-08T05:36:57.977Z","2020-03-08T05:36:57.973Z","2020-05-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Masked Singer season 3 Turtle is Nick Jonas",45,,"pranomostro","Ianharrison",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-11T10:29:40.474Z","2020-03-08T05:36:57.973Z","2020-05-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"LBMA gold price reaches $1800/oz in 2020",65,,"pranomostro","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-16T15:45:13.378Z","2020-03-08T16:22:12.518Z","2020-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"LBMA gold price reaches $1800/oz in 2020",70,,"batemancapital","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-08T16:22:12.522Z","2020-03-08T16:22:12.518Z","2020-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"The Super Mario Bros. Any% record will be above 4:55:000 on 31st December 2022.",55,,"pranomostro","The_Offwo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-16T15:45:14.586Z","2020-03-09T18:51:09.924Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Super Mario Bros. Any% record will be above 4:55:000 on 31st December 2022.",70,,"The_Offwo","The_Offwo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-09T18:51:09.929Z","2020-03-09T18:51:09.924Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Army corps of engineers will build additional hospitals/testing around NYC/NJ",15,,"pranomostro","daveisright",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-18T16:53:54.968Z","2020-03-17T13:26:25.604Z","2020-04-03T12:00:00.000Z"
"Army corps of engineers will build additional hospitals/testing around NYC/NJ",75,,"daveisright","daveisright",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-17T13:26:25.606Z","2020-03-17T13:26:25.604Z","2020-04-03T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will be alive on my 33rd birthday.",88,,"Mati Roy","ZLM","If you die, who will judge this prediction wrong? How will I know if I'm well calibrated? And more importantly, can I help you not dying? :-(",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-11T17:33:58.000Z","2014-02-11T11:32:11.000Z","2022-01-30T23:00:00.000Z"
"I will be alive on my 33rd birthday.",60,,"ZLM","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-11T11:32:11.000Z","2014-02-11T11:32:11.000Z","2022-01-30T23:00:00.000Z"
"get in conditional on X",30,,"jungwon","jungwon","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-11T20:55:33.913Z","2020-12-11T20:55:33.904Z","2020-12-18T05:00:00.000Z"
"get in conditional on X",10,,"Ben Rachbach","jungwon","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-11T21:04:35.860Z","2020-12-11T20:55:33.904Z","2020-12-18T05:00:00.000Z"
"Kakapo will go extinct by 2030",6,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-05T03:59:23.457Z","2015-07-11T06:25:53.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kakapo will go extinct by 2030",25,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T13:53:00.000Z","2015-07-11T06:25:53.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kakapo will go extinct by 2030",15,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T11:19:38.000Z","2015-07-11T06:25:53.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kakapo will go extinct by 2030",20,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T06:25:53.000Z","2015-07-11T06:25:53.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Gamestop will reopen before the end of the year",75,,"pranomostro","daveisright",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-23T15:16:58.141Z","2020-03-22T06:55:24.107Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Gamestop will reopen before the end of the year",60,,"daveisright","daveisright",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-22T06:55:24.108Z","2020-03-22T06:55:24.107Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins NE-2 in 2020",71.43,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins NE-2 in 2020",74.34,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"The first 1-year period in which at least 10 people will have lived permanently on mars will be between 2042 and 2052",62,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-25T15:47:08.000Z","2018-09-25T15:47:08.000Z","2053-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first 1-year period in which at least 10 people will have lived permanently on mars will be between 2042 and 2052",10,,"splorridge","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-01T14:33:17.000Z","2018-09-25T15:47:08.000Z","2053-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first 1-year period in which at least 10 people will have lived permanently on mars will be between 2042 and 2052",15,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-05T21:12:48.054Z","2018-09-25T15:47:08.000Z","2053-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The African Continental Free Trade Area is operational between all countries it is legally in force for, with the treaty effectively governing all the trade its text covers",40,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-04T00:42:41.492Z","2020-01-04T00:42:41.488Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"The African Continental Free Trade Area is operational between all countries it is legally in force for, with the treaty effectively governing all the trade its text covers",30,,"pranomostro","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-17T15:37:31.570Z","2020-01-04T00:42:41.488Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"The African Continental Free Trade Area is operational between all countries it is legally in force for, with the treaty effectively governing all the trade its text covers",20,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga","I don't know what progress has been made, but the pandemic does lower my confidence.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-11T01:09:55.725Z","2020-01-04T00:42:41.488Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"The African Continental Free Trade Area is operational between all countries it is legally in force for, with the treaty effectively governing all the trade its text covers",0,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga","2021-01-01 is the tentative relaunch date. https://atalayar.com/en/content/coronavirus-delays-implementation-major-african-free-trade-agreement",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-31T18:12:33.553Z","2020-01-04T00:42:41.488Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Gorillas will go extinct in the wild by 2030",30,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T06:29:20.000Z","2015-07-11T06:29:20.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Gorillas will go extinct in the wild by 2030",45,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T13:49:55.000Z","2015-07-11T06:29:20.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Kaji's killer (if any) will be shown clearly, on-screen, and not off-screen",30,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T13:48:28.000Z","2011-10-04T20:05:40.000Z","2018-01-01T17:27:52.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Kaji's killer (if any) will be shown clearly, on-screen, and not off-screen",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-04T20:05:40.000Z","2011-10-04T20:05:40.000Z","2018-01-01T17:27:52.000Z"
"The Vital Study (http://www.vitalstudy.org) will find that Vitamin D at 2000IU significantly reduces mortality. ",85,,"ChristianKl","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-07T02:04:23.000Z","2013-01-07T02:04:23.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Vital Study (http://www.vitalstudy.org) will find that Vitamin D at 2000IU significantly reduces mortality. ",50,,"themusicgod1","ChristianKl",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T14:46:33.000Z","2013-01-07T02:04:23.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"P = NP problema lidz 2018. gada 1. janvarim netiks atrisinata.",46,,"themusicgod1","zaarcis",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T14:38:44.000Z","2012-12-10T10:52:13.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"P = NP problema lidz 2018. gada 1. janvarim netiks atrisinata.",75,,"zaarcis","zaarcis",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-12-10T10:52:13.000Z","2012-12-10T10:52:13.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Montana in 2020",10.68,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Montana in 2020",15.42,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"I travel to Alaska this year",60,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,personal","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I travel to Alaska this year",30,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""Sell Alaska down to 30%. Again, this does not seem compatible with how the world looks. And given travel outside the country was already down to 10%, probably that’s still somewhat too high.""",,"ssc,personal","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Missouri in 2020",6.93,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Missouri in 2020",6.94,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins ME-1 in 2020",93.27,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins ME-1 in 2020",97.34,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Kaji will kill Misato",1,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T13:49:48.000Z","2011-10-04T20:03:09.000Z","2018-01-01T17:27:55.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Kaji will kill Misato",5,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-04T20:03:09.000Z","2011-10-04T20:03:09.000Z","2018-01-01T17:27:55.000Z"
"Biden wins Massachusetts in 2020",93.14,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Massachusetts in 2020",99.95,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Louisiana in 2020",2.97,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Louisiana in 2020",2.59,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"have >= 229 electoral votes",1,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-04T00:32:34.172Z","2020-01-04T00:32:34.169Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"have >= 229 electoral votes",5,,"pranomostro","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-17T16:32:56.613Z","2020-01-04T00:32:34.169Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Varun Grover thinks ""No democracies, no dissent, and a world much like JG Ballard's High Rise""

link: https://twitter.com/varungrover/status/1240970794001301504",5,,"pranomostro","volis","Worldwide? Nope.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-20T13:53:23.976Z","2020-03-20T12:11:33.881Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Varun Grover thinks ""No democracies, no dissent, and a world much like JG Ballard's High Rise""

link: https://twitter.com/varungrover/status/1240970794001301504",75,,"volis","volis",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-20T12:11:33.886Z","2020-03-20T12:11:33.881Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"have been joind by at least 4 other states",1,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-04T00:32:34.165Z","2020-01-04T00:32:34.162Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"have been joind by at least 4 other states",2,,"pranomostro","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-17T16:32:22.360Z","2020-01-04T00:32:34.162Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Egypt will default on its debt by the end of 2023",40,,"elephantower","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-27T02:44:04.000Z","2016-06-20T19:52:52.000Z","2024-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Egypt will default on its debt by the end of 2023",40,,"elephantower","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-27T02:44:04.000Z","2016-06-20T19:52:52.000Z","2024-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Egypt will default on its debt by the end of 2023",87,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-20T19:52:52.000Z","2016-06-20T19:52:52.000Z","2024-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, iOS/iPad will be/have a full fledged development environment for app development.",80,,"silacoid","silacoid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-14T17:37:31.000Z","2016-06-14T17:37:31.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, iOS/iPad will be/have a full fledged development environment for app development.",85,,"Ben Doherty","silacoid","Assuming that iPad is still a meaningful concept. I'd still count this as valid if iOS and macOS merge software and hardware",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-15T04:16:23.000Z","2016-06-14T17:37:31.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Gendo, in his hand",55,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-04T19:56:43.000Z","2011-10-04T19:56:43.000Z","2018-01-01T17:27:58.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Gendo, in his hand",50,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T13:50:16.000Z","2011-10-04T19:56:43.000Z","2018-01-01T17:27:58.000Z"
"have been joined by at least one other state",60,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-04T00:32:34.159Z","2020-01-04T00:32:34.156Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"have been joined by at least one other state",55,,"pranomostro","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-17T16:31:09.545Z","2020-01-04T00:32:34.156Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"are fewer than 16",0,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-04T00:32:34.152Z","2020-01-04T00:32:34.150Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"are fewer than 16",2,,"pranomostro","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-17T16:31:43.716Z","2020-01-04T00:32:34.150Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"are only the current 16",40,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-04T00:32:34.146Z","2020-01-04T00:32:34.143Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"are only the current 16",50,,"pranomostro","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-17T16:32:04.408Z","2020-01-04T00:32:34.143Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"a small, rocky exoplanet with water vapor",30,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-04T00:16:00.700Z","2020-01-04T00:16:00.695Z","2030-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"a small, rocky exoplanet with water vapor",35,,"pranomostro","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-11T16:17:18.656Z","2020-01-04T00:16:00.695Z","2030-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"finding the axion",1,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-04T00:16:00.691Z","2020-01-04T00:16:00.686Z","2030-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"finding the axion",1,,"pranomostro","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-11T16:35:34.733Z","2020-01-04T00:16:00.686Z","2030-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"I am sure that the world will not end in next 50 years.",100,,"dr.ace07","dr.ace07",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-17T22:10:55.000Z","2015-11-17T22:10:42.000Z","2065-11-18T12:00:00.000Z"
"I am sure that the world will not end in next 50 years.",100,,"dr.ace07","dr.ace07",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-17T22:10:42.000Z","2015-11-17T22:10:42.000Z","2065-11-18T12:00:00.000Z"
"I am sure that the world will not end in next 50 years.",81,,"holomanga","dr.ace07",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-06-12T01:38:08.022Z","2015-11-17T22:10:42.000Z","2065-11-18T12:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2056, under the assumptions that PH not collapse to finite level, PH != PSPACE, and PSPACE != EXP, UGC,  ETH , GI is not in BQP, factoring is not in P, and NC != P,  proven that ZPP in Beta_P^{Ring iso, MSCP}.",100,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-07T22:34:52.000Z","2015-09-07T22:34:52.000Z","2056-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2056, under the assumptions that PH not collapse to finite level, PH != PSPACE, and PSPACE != EXP, UGC,  ETH , GI is not in BQP, factoring is not in P, and NC != P,  proven that ZPP in Beta_P^{Ring iso, MSCP}.",98,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-15T02:05:15.000Z","2015-09-07T22:34:52.000Z","2056-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2056, under the assumptions that PH not collapse to finite level, PH != PSPACE, and PSPACE != EXP, UGC,  ETH , GI is not in BQP, factoring is not in P, and NC != P,  proven that ZPP in Beta_P^{Ring iso, MSCP}.",10,,"themusicgod1","JoshuaZ","and and and and",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-24T18:08:00.000Z","2015-09-07T22:34:52.000Z","2056-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Gendo's ultimate goal in 4.0 will not be to reunite with Yui, but to turn her into a god-like entity",4,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-04T19:48:26.000Z","2011-10-04T19:48:26.000Z","2018-01-01T17:26:04.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Gendo's ultimate goal in 4.0 will not be to reunite with Yui, but to turn her into a god-like entity",0,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T13:51:04.000Z","2011-10-04T19:48:26.000Z","2018-01-01T17:26:04.000Z"
"""Satoshi Nakamoto"" collaborated with Nick Szabo to create Bitcoin.",95,,"ZLM","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-11T12:02:12.000Z","2014-02-11T12:02:12.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Satoshi Nakamoto"" collaborated with Nick Szabo to create Bitcoin.",99,,"axsys","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-22T02:49:21.000Z","2014-02-11T12:02:12.000Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"functional brain implants made of brain tissue (not electronic)",0,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-04T00:16:00.682Z","2020-01-04T00:16:00.677Z","2030-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"functional brain implants made of brain tissue (not electronic)",1,,"pranomostro","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-11T16:36:04.291Z","2020-01-04T00:16:00.677Z","2030-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat to be third-biggest defence spender by 2020 -IHS Defence Budgets Annual Report",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-08T14:06:08.000Z","2015-09-08T14:06:08.000Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat to be third-biggest defence spender by 2020 -IHS Defence Budgets Annual Report",75,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-08T15:27:48.000Z","2015-09-08T14:06:08.000Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat to be third-biggest defence spender by 2020 -IHS Defence Budgets Annual Report",2,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-01T17:22:54.000Z","2015-09-08T14:06:08.000Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat to be third-biggest defence spender by 2020 -IHS Defence Budgets Annual Report",62,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar","Ugh, typo. That should have been an update to 62%. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-01T17:23:24.000Z","2015-09-08T14:06:08.000Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will cut under 5 mortality rate to 25 deaths or fewer per 1000 live births in 15 years. Sustainable Development Goal (SDG)",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-10T04:30:41.000Z","2015-09-10T04:30:41.000Z","2030-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will cut under 5 mortality rate to 25 deaths or fewer per 1000 live births in 15 years. Sustainable Development Goal (SDG)",35,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-10T12:14:16.000Z","2015-09-10T04:30:41.000Z","2030-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will cut under 5 mortality rate to 25 deaths or fewer per 1000 live births in 15 years. Sustainable Development Goal (SDG)",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar","Can you explain that 35% figure? It's neither in line with past progress or with what the UN experts predict.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-15T13:40:57.000Z","2015-09-10T04:30:41.000Z","2030-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"No OECD nation will have a lockdown (orders which prevent people from attending work, in the absence of any evidence of illness) in place by the end of 2020",20,,"sortega","sjy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-06T19:22:32.366Z","2020-03-28T10:57:28.886Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No OECD nation will have a lockdown (orders which prevent people from attending work, in the absence of any evidence of illness) in place by the end of 2020",80,,"sjy","sjy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-28T10:57:28.890Z","2020-03-28T10:57:28.886Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be no state- or nation-wide McDonald’s closures (other than closure of the dining area) due to COVID-19 in Australia in 2020",70,,"sjy","sjy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-29T01:53:49.789Z","2020-03-29T01:53:49.784Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be no state- or nation-wide McDonald’s closures (other than closure of the dining area) due to COVID-19 in Australia in 2020",90,,"azatris","sjy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-18T10:51:30.347Z","2020-03-29T01:53:49.784Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"a universal flu vaccine available to the general public in at least one country",2,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-04T00:16:00.664Z","2020-01-04T00:16:00.647Z","2030-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"a universal flu vaccine available to the general public in at least one country",3,,"pranomostro","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-11T16:36:26.420Z","2020-01-04T00:16:00.647Z","2030-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"At least one new Supreme Court Justice by 2021",20,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,politics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"At least one new Supreme Court Justice by 2021",20,,"Zvi","Scott Alexander","Predictor notes: ""Hold rather than check actuarial tables, but check the tables. I don’t think this happens much before the election short of that. Right wing justices are not old enough to quit, left wing justices aren’t going anywhere by choice.""",,"ssc,politics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) of Bharat has released a year-by-year breakdown of solar capacity targets by states to reach its overall 100 GW solar capacity target by 2022. ",15,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar","Probability that they will hit every target and exatly so within that range is very low. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-13T15:04:21.000Z","2015-09-13T13:15:43.000Z","2022-12-25T23:00:00.000Z"
"Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) of Bharat has released a year-by-year breakdown of solar capacity targets by states to reach its overall 100 GW solar capacity target by 2022. ",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-13T13:15:43.000Z","2015-09-13T13:15:43.000Z","2022-12-25T23:00:00.000Z"
"Some form of certification to people immune to coronavirus will be issued in any country (either for people vaccinated or recovered)",90,,"sortega","sortega",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-06T19:20:38.189Z","2020-04-06T19:20:38.185Z","2021-06-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Some form of certification to people immune to coronavirus will be issued in any country (either for people vaccinated or recovered)",10,,"sortega","sortega",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-28T10:41:52.943Z","2020-04-06T19:20:38.185Z","2021-06-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Some form of certification to people immune to coronavirus will be issued in any country (either for people vaccinated or recovered)",90,,"qznc","sortega",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-06T20:50:19.124Z","2020-04-06T19:20:38.185Z","2021-06-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, small nuclear power plants (around 60MW) were ""popping up"" around the USA.",4,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-03T19:54:46.492Z","2020-01-03T19:54:46.488Z","2032-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, small nuclear power plants (around 60MW) were ""popping up"" around the USA.",5,,"pranomostro","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-11T16:38:38.153Z","2020-01-03T19:54:46.488Z","2032-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"China sequences 100 million people's genomes between 2026 and 2030",10,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-03T19:44:31.524Z","2020-01-03T19:44:31.520Z","2031-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"China sequences 100 million people's genomes between 2026 and 2030",7,,"pranomostro","Bruno Parga","Conjuction.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-11T16:45:12.293Z","2020-01-03T19:44:31.520Z","2031-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"""We are confident that over 60 million patients will have their genome sequenced in a healthcare context by 2025""",5,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-03T19:40:45.624Z","2020-01-03T19:40:45.620Z","2026-05-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"""We are confident that over 60 million patients will have their genome sequenced in a healthcare context by 2025""",6,,"pranomostro","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-11T16:45:37.759Z","2020-01-03T19:40:45.620Z","2026-05-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"Between now and 2030, a feature length movie will be made about the life of one of the major figures of classical anarchism. (e.g. Proudhon, Kropotkin, Malatesta, Durruti, Goldman etc.) ",54,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T14:29:36.000Z","2012-11-16T03:27:53.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Between now and 2030, a feature length movie will be made about the life of one of the major figures of classical anarchism. (e.g. Proudhon, Kropotkin, Malatesta, Durruti, Goldman etc.) ",60,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-16T03:27:53.000Z","2012-11-16T03:27:53.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: In 4.0, there will be an epilogue set years later",80,,"Anubhav","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-10T13:53:26.000Z","2011-10-04T00:59:56.000Z","2018-01-01T17:20:48.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: In 4.0, there will be an epilogue set years later",35,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-04T00:59:56.000Z","2011-10-04T00:59:56.000Z","2018-01-01T17:20:48.000Z"
"U.S. equities will return 1.8% 2010-2020. --Smithers & Co.",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-13T05:29:34.000Z","2010-08-13T05:29:34.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"U.S. equities will return 1.8% 2010-2020. --Smithers & Co.",51,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T13:32:53.307Z","2010-08-13T05:29:34.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Rogan will host a presidential debate in the next ten years",30,,"qznc","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-03T13:14:32.266Z","2020-01-03T13:14:32.262Z","2030-12-31T11:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Rogan will host a presidential debate in the next ten years",2,,"pranomostro","qznc","That would suprise me.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-11T16:40:56.680Z","2020-01-03T13:14:32.262Z","2030-12-31T11:00:00.000Z"
"If I discover a convenient way to test it, my polygenic risk score for schizophrenia will be above the population average (based on rare variant enrichment). ",85,,"Porejide","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-15T22:42:13.000Z","2015-09-15T22:42:12.000Z","2016-01-15T22:42:12.000Z"
"If I discover a convenient way to test it, my polygenic risk score for schizophrenia will be above the population average (based on rare variant enrichment). ",75,,"EloiseRosen","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-16T01:03:53.000Z","2015-09-15T22:42:12.000Z","2016-01-15T22:42:12.000Z"
"Current Illinois governor Bruce Rauner will be found guilty of any illegal crime",20,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-17T02:10:05.000Z","2015-09-17T02:10:05.000Z","2025-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Current Illinois governor Bruce Rauner will be found guilty of any illegal crime",35,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-17T10:47:55.000Z","2015-09-17T02:10:05.000Z","2025-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"I will be alive on my 26th birthday.",95,,"ZLM","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-11T11:28:56.000Z","2014-02-11T11:28:56.000Z","2015-01-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will be alive on my 26th birthday.",99,,"RoryS","ZLM","I see no reason for you to be that much lower than base rate, unless this is direct from a doctor. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-01T20:57:48.000Z","2014-02-11T11:28:56.000Z","2015-01-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 20 people predict on the Ray Kurzweil post in November?",65,,"Andreas S","Amanda N","","","users-Nov,LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-14T00:23:06.497Z","2020-11-14T00:22:45.620Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 20 people predict on the Ray Kurzweil post in November?",65,,"Amanda N","Amanda N","","","users-Nov,LW","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-14T00:26:54.595Z","2020-11-14T00:22:45.620Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Kentucky in 2020",3.96,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Kentucky in 2020",1.47,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"China wins the most gold medals at the Olympics",9,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-02T22:45:45.804Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.800Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"China wins the most gold medals at the Olympics",15,,"pranomostro","Bruno Parga","This has happened once before: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Summer_Olympic_Games#Most_successful_nations in 2008: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Summer_Olympics_medal_table",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-11T16:10:14.784Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.800Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Christian Coleman wins men's 100 metres at the Olympics",49,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-02T22:45:45.755Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.752Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Christian Coleman wins men's 100 metres at the Olympics",40,,"pranomostro","Bruno Parga","I've never heard of this person either, which reduces my confidence that this will happen.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-11T15:57:15.140Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.752Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Kansas in 2020",4.04,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Kansas in 2020",2.81,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"The Lakers defense ranks 18th in the NBA. At the end of the season, they will rank between 10-20 according to http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/LAL/2013.html.",70,,"fistpo","fistpo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-12T15:36:12.000Z","2012-11-12T15:36:12.000Z","2019-04-13T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Lakers defense ranks 18th in the NBA. At the end of the season, they will rank between 10-20 according to http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/LAL/2013.html.",59,,"RandomThinker","fistpo","Sounds plausible.  Middle class defense under D'Antoni.  By random chance though, its only 1/3. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-12T22:15:58.000Z","2012-11-12T15:36:12.000Z","2019-04-13T12:00:00.000Z"
"Waymo still uses safety drivers in 10 years or closes down",80,,"qznc","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-03T14:05:23.289Z","2020-01-03T14:05:23.285Z","2030-12-31T11:00:00.000Z"
"Waymo still uses safety drivers in 10 years or closes down",75,,"pranomostro","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-17T16:06:55.318Z","2020-01-03T14:05:23.285Z","2030-12-31T11:00:00.000Z"
"S&P 500 index retests 2200 by the end of 2020",60,,"batemancapital","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-17T02:49:34.326Z","2020-04-17T02:49:34.322Z","2021-01-01T09:00:00.000Z"
"S&P 500 index retests 2200 by the end of 2020",30,,"azatris","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-18T10:39:32.389Z","2020-04-17T02:49:34.322Z","2021-01-01T09:00:00.000Z"
"Record high global average temperature is recorded by NASA",25,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-02T22:45:45.851Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.848Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Record high global average temperature is recorded by NASA",30,,"pranomostro","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-11T16:14:03.208Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.848Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"House prices fall across rich English-speaking countries",28,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-02T22:45:45.820Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.816Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"House prices fall across rich English-speaking countries",40,,"pranomostro","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-11T16:13:24.192Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.816Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Romney will publicly embrace Romneycare before end of Obama term",55,,"JoshuaZ","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-11T00:09:03.000Z","2012-11-07T12:59:23.000Z","2016-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Romney will publicly embrace Romneycare before end of Obama term",65,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-07T12:59:23.000Z","2012-11-07T12:59:23.000Z","2016-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“There will be a Chernobyl National Park by 2035.”",70,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-02T06:49:57.000Z","2010-08-02T06:49:57.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“There will be a Chernobyl National Park by 2035.”",60,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-13T14:00:55.442Z","2010-08-02T06:49:57.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Lebron James will average a triple double in an NBA season during his career",10,,"fistpo","RandomThinker","There has only been one triple double season, and it was 50 years ago. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-12T15:40:37.000Z","2012-10-29T13:20:40.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Lebron James will average a triple double in an NBA season during his career",65,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-29T13:20:40.000Z","2012-10-29T13:20:40.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Arkansas in 2020",0.92,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Arkansas in 2020",1.98,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Having survived CoViD-19 makes you immune for at least a year",55,,"Paul.David.Carr","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-01T02:44:08.880Z","2020-04-18T15:39:38.654Z","2021-11-03T11:00:00.000Z"
"Having survived CoViD-19 makes you immune for at least a year",70,,"qznc","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-18T15:39:38.661Z","2020-04-18T15:39:38.654Z","2021-11-03T11:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Colorado in 2020",96.38,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Colorado in 2020",89.22,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"First virtual tourism in 7 years.",60,,"spacemammoth","spacemammoth",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-08-13T14:42:35.000Z","2014-08-13T14:42:34.000Z","2021-08-13T14:42:34.000Z"
"First virtual tourism in 7 years.",90,,"TeMPOraL","spacemammoth","Seems to me that the tech is already there.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-08-14T13:41:38.000Z","2014-08-13T14:42:34.000Z","2021-08-13T14:42:34.000Z"
"England wins Euro 2020 men's football tournament",10,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-02T22:45:45.786Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.779Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"England wins Euro 2020 men's football tournament",6,,"pranomostro","Bruno Parga","UK hasn't won them yet: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_UEFA_European_Championship_finals#List_of_finals, so this is baserate for any team.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-11T15:59:27.713Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.779Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"PubMed's comment system will have some form of human moderation before 2015.",45,,"Jayson Virissimo","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-24T01:47:15.000Z","2013-10-24T01:47:15.000Z","2015-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"PubMed's comment system will have some form of human moderation before 2015.",40,,"ChristianKl","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-29T00:28:39.000Z","2013-10-24T01:47:15.000Z","2015-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Indiana in 2020",6.8,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Indiana in 2020",4.46,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"At least one Trump National Security Lottery is put on by the US federal government",10,,"plantony","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-31T17:29:38.000Z","2017-03-25T18:33:19.000Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one Trump National Security Lottery is put on by the US federal government",29,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-25T18:33:19.000Z","2017-03-25T18:33:19.000Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humans will land on mars between 2030 and 2038.",10,,"telegrafista","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-14T10:59:39.289Z","2018-09-25T15:43:43.000Z","2039-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humans will land on mars between 2030 and 2038.",70,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-25T15:43:43.000Z","2018-09-25T15:43:43.000Z","2039-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humans will land on mars between 2030 and 2038.",37,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-05T21:12:58.254Z","2018-09-25T15:43:43.000Z","2039-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"This prediction is currently judged 'Unknown' or 'Wrong'.",50,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-03-15T02:16:42.000Z","2014-03-15T02:16:42.000Z","9999-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"This prediction is currently judged 'Unknown' or 'Wrong'.",0,,"mfb","Mati Roy","Assuming ""predictionbook still exists"" is necessary to satisfy the condition",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-04-02T22:20:23.000Z","2014-03-15T02:16:42.000Z","9999-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[ Law Enforcement, Celebrity, Musician ] Tekashi69 (AKA Tekashi 6ix9ine) (Daniel Hernandez) (born May 8, 1996) to have an act of murder or attempted murder committed against him
",65,,"panashe","two2thehead","His address has already been leaked once",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-10T21:12:11.585Z","2020-05-10T13:46:26.902Z","2025-05-11T02:00:00.000Z"
"[ Law Enforcement, Celebrity, Musician ] Tekashi69 (AKA Tekashi 6ix9ine) (Daniel Hernandez) (born May 8, 1996) to have an act of murder or attempted murder committed against him
",55,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-10T13:46:26.908Z","2020-05-10T13:46:26.902Z","2025-05-11T02:00:00.000Z"
"The cure rate for persons diagnosed with mild/early Alzheimer's disease will exceed 20%",75,,"danpop","Paul.David.Carr","I hope so",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-08T14:00:12.000Z","2016-05-27T18:28:28.000Z","2027-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"The cure rate for persons diagnosed with mild/early Alzheimer's disease will exceed 20%",70,,"Paul.David.Carr","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-27T18:28:28.000Z","2016-05-27T18:28:28.000Z","2027-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"The majority of public schools in Arizona will not require students to utilize spaced repetition software at any point within the next 10 years.",80,,"Jayson Virissimo","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-04-25T21:27:17.000Z","2014-04-25T21:27:17.000Z","2024-04-25T21:27:17.000Z"
"The majority of public schools in Arizona will not require students to utilize spaced repetition software at any point within the next 10 years.",80,,"elephantower","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-10T22:02:59.000Z","2014-04-25T21:27:17.000Z","2024-04-25T21:27:17.000Z"
"Trudeau government implements a new NEP without being substantially different from the old one(ie doesn't subsidize alberta for loss)",2,,"theredarmy","themusicgod1","the problems today are low oil prices not high prices so it makes no sense to implement something like the NEP today..",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-14T01:27:10.000Z","2016-05-24T23:25:19.000Z","2023-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trudeau government implements a new NEP without being substantially different from the old one(ie doesn't subsidize alberta for loss)",12,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-24T23:25:19.000Z","2016-05-24T23:25:19.000Z","2023-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I am banned from Facebook",10,,"bobpage","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-23T16:31:34.000Z","2016-05-23T02:06:33.000Z","2021-05-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"I am banned from Facebook",37,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-23T02:06:33.000Z","2016-05-23T02:06:33.000Z","2021-05-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, the remains of several prehistoric human settlements will be discovered underwater by archaeologists. ",53,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T21:12:41.000Z","2011-11-12T02:34:29.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, the remains of several prehistoric human settlements will be discovered underwater by archaeologists. ",60,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-12T02:34:29.000Z","2011-11-12T02:34:29.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""age of onset of 12 years"" will be removed from DSM-V diagnosis criteria for ADD/ADHD by the time DSM-VI comes out",65,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-21T20:36:38.000Z","2016-05-21T20:36:38.000Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"""age of onset of 12 years"" will be removed from DSM-V diagnosis criteria for ADD/ADHD by the time DSM-VI comes out",63,,"exasperative","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-06T21:59:07.000Z","2016-05-21T20:36:38.000Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Halflife 3 will be VR-based (conditional on HL3 being released)",58,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-21T22:24:30.000Z","2016-05-21T20:35:53.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Halflife 3 will be VR-based (conditional on HL3 being released)",60,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-21T20:35:53.000Z","2016-05-21T20:35:53.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Civ 6 will receive higher ratings on metacritic than Civ 5",55,,"theredarmy","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-14T02:31:14.000Z","2016-05-21T20:35:09.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Civ 6 will receive higher ratings on metacritic than Civ 5",60,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-21T20:35:09.000Z","2016-05-21T20:35:09.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"U.S. 10 year Treasury yield below 3.5% before 2025",20,,"pranomostro","batemancapital","I'll stick to the base rates: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US10Y",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-17T16:09:03.179Z","2020-01-01T19:56:24.013Z","2024-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"U.S. 10 year Treasury yield below 3.5% before 2025",85,,"batemancapital","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-01T19:56:24.017Z","2020-01-01T19:56:24.013Z","2024-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"U.S. 10 year Treasury yield below 3.5% before 2025",80,,"pranomostro","batemancapital","Misread the question, I replaced ""below"" with ""above"" (somehow).",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-17T16:09:33.314Z","2020-01-01T19:56:24.013Z","2024-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"Nicolás Maduro holds on to the presidency of Venezuela",80,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-02T22:45:45.734Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.731Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Nicolás Maduro holds on to the presidency of Venezuela",75,,"pranomostro","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-11T15:53:09.850Z","2020-01-02T22:45:45.731Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Climate change catastrophes cause more property damage over than 2020-2030 period than the purported $300bn USD (as reported by Time via Bloomberg, october 24, 2019) that would need to be invested to limit the worst of the effects.",99,,"kallman","kallman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-02T21:08:01.054Z","2020-01-02T21:08:01.049Z","2031-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"Climate change catastrophes cause more property damage over than 2020-2030 period than the purported $300bn USD (as reported by Time via Bloomberg, october 24, 2019) that would need to be invested to limit the worst of the effects.",55,,"pranomostro","kallman","@Bruno Parga is right, that's the crux. What are the marginal hurricanes going to do?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-11T16:42:48.649Z","2020-01-02T21:08:01.049Z","2031-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"S&P 500 index ends 2020 above 3500",67,,"pranomostro","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-17T16:10:39.834Z","2020-01-01T19:55:03.078Z","2020-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"S&P 500 index ends 2020 above 3500",60,,"batemancapital","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-01T19:55:03.088Z","2020-01-01T19:55:03.078Z","2020-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"Each of {Trump, Biden} will be president in at least one branch of the multiverse.",99,,"sty.silver","sty.silver",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-01T10:03:44.925Z","2020-06-01T10:03:44.923Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Each of {Trump, Biden} will be president in at least one branch of the multiverse.",1,,"Deepak","sty.silver","I have doubts that this could be resolved one way or another, but predicting conditional on this being tested and there existing more than one multiverse branch ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-09T21:05:09.008Z","2020-06-01T10:03:44.923Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"George Church to win the Nobel Prize (in any category)",51,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-21T20:17:39.000Z","2016-05-21T20:17:39.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"George Church to win the Nobel Prize (in any category)",49,,"Paul.David.Carr","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-27T18:31:41.000Z","2016-05-21T20:17:39.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
" Trump to be diagnosed with dementia sometime by 2030",2,,"azatris","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-23T11:48:00.703Z","2020-06-02T23:57:07.949Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
" Trump to be diagnosed with dementia sometime by 2030",60,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-02T23:57:07.954Z","2020-06-02T23:57:07.949Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Minnesota to break the longest Democrat-voting streak by 2030",65,,"azatris","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-23T11:47:30.694Z","2020-06-03T00:00:13.387Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Minnesota to break the longest Democrat-voting streak by 2030",60,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-03T00:00:13.394Z","2020-06-03T00:00:13.387Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Dollar index (DXY) 2020 performance is negative",80,,"batemancapital","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-01T19:51:43.631Z","2020-01-01T19:51:43.627Z","2020-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"Dollar index (DXY) 2020 performance is negative",50,,"pranomostro","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-17T16:28:18.784Z","2020-01-01T19:51:43.627Z","2020-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"Kosovo has <116 recognitions by sovereign states (excludes Niue and Cook Islands, includes ""withdrawn"" recognitions because withdrawing isn't valid)",84,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga","Israel #114 on Sept 4 reduces the probability of this being right, but it being this late in the year increases it. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T10:09:18.734Z","2019-12-31T23:52:26.326Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Kosovo has <116 recognitions by sovereign states (excludes Niue and Cook Islands, includes ""withdrawn"" recognitions because withdrawing isn't valid)",80,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T23:52:26.329Z","2019-12-31T23:52:26.326Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Kosovo has <116 recognitions by sovereign states (excludes Niue and Cook Islands, includes ""withdrawn"" recognitions because withdrawing isn't valid)",60,,"pranomostro","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-17T16:24:05.886Z","2019-12-31T23:52:26.326Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Thiel Fellowship will still run in 2020",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-21T20:16:41.000Z","2016-05-21T20:16:41.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Thiel Fellowship will still run in 2020",58,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-21T22:31:30.000Z","2016-05-21T20:16:41.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"FourSquare to still exist as an independent entity by 2020",100,,"NickN","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-20T20:34:43.541Z","2015-07-11T18:38:49.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"FourSquare to still exist as an independent entity by 2020",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T18:38:49.000Z","2015-07-11T18:38:49.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will Columbia University resume in-person classes for Fall 2020?",15,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-24T05:27:29.865Z","2020-06-05T02:07:15.278Z","2020-09-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will Columbia University resume in-person classes for Fall 2020?",35,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-05T02:07:15.282Z","2020-06-05T02:07:15.278Z","2020-09-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will Columbia University resume in-person classes for Fall 2020?",60,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-03T06:44:51.563Z","2020-06-05T02:07:15.278Z","2020-09-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"epub to be the most popular file format for eBooks in 2020",30,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T20:09:07.000Z","2015-07-11T20:09:06.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"epub to be the most popular file format for eBooks in 2020",20,,"NickN","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-21T16:46:19.389Z","2015-07-11T20:09:06.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"BJP will win even the 2024 elections ",80,,"optimaton","optimaton",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-30T05:29:50.583Z","2019-12-30T05:29:50.576Z","2024-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"BJP will win even the 2024 elections ",65,,"pranomostro","optimaton","https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bharatiya_Janata_Party, I assume?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-30T13:38:19.629Z","2019-12-30T05:29:50.576Z","2024-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Halo Infinite is released in Q4 2020",60,,"qznc","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-29T11:24:20.643Z","2019-12-29T11:24:20.639Z","2020-12-25T11:00:00.000Z"
"Halo Infinite is released in Q4 2020",65,,"pranomostro","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-30T13:36:41.660Z","2019-12-29T11:24:20.639Z","2020-12-25T11:00:00.000Z"
"Jurassic World 3 is released in June 2021",55,,"pranomostro","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-30T13:34:33.372Z","2019-12-29T11:15:52.515Z","2021-06-30T10:00:00.000Z"
"Jurassic World 3 is released in June 2021",30,,"qznc","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-29T11:15:52.519Z","2019-12-29T11:15:52.515Z","2021-06-30T10:00:00.000Z"
"Uncharted movie is released in December 2020",40,,"qznc","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-29T11:07:50.380Z","2019-12-29T11:07:50.376Z","2020-12-25T11:00:00.000Z"
"Uncharted movie is released in December 2020",60,,"pranomostro","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-30T13:33:40.536Z","2019-12-29T11:07:50.376Z","2020-12-25T11:00:00.000Z"
"Usain Bolt sets a new world record in the 100m.",30,,"Michael Dickens","KnaveOfAllTrades",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-21T18:38:30.000Z","2014-10-18T22:12:24.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Usain Bolt sets a new world record in the 100m.",20,,"KnaveOfAllTrades","KnaveOfAllTrades",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-18T22:12:24.000Z","2014-10-18T22:12:24.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"permissioned blockchains will enable persecution of activists",97,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-12T22:32:09.000Z","2017-10-12T22:32:09.000Z","2027-10-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"permissioned blockchains will enable persecution of activists",50,,"NickN","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-17T02:47:14.869Z","2017-10-12T22:32:09.000Z","2027-10-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"Detection of axions widely accepted in physics publications. ",60,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-20T15:25:25.000Z","2014-10-20T15:25:25.000Z","2024-10-20T15:25:25.000Z"
"Detection of axions widely accepted in physics publications. ",15,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-15T20:22:44.000Z","2014-10-20T15:25:25.000Z","2024-10-20T15:25:25.000Z"
"Proof of concept for axion-photon conversion as a basis for energy generation demonstrated experimentally, as published in at least one refereed physics journal. ",1,,"JoshuaZ","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-15T20:21:57.000Z","2014-10-20T15:29:13.000Z","2114-10-21T02:29:13.000Z"
"Proof of concept for axion-photon conversion as a basis for energy generation demonstrated experimentally, as published in at least one refereed physics journal. ",50,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-20T15:29:14.000Z","2014-10-20T15:29:13.000Z","2114-10-21T02:29:13.000Z"
"Dune movie is released in December 2020",70,,"qznc","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-29T11:06:11.463Z","2019-12-29T11:06:11.459Z","2020-12-25T11:00:00.000Z"
"Dune movie is released in December 2020",55,,"pranomostro","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-29T15:06:30.985Z","2019-12-29T11:06:11.459Z","2020-12-25T11:00:00.000Z"
"Avatar 2 is released in December 2021",60,,"qznc","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-29T11:02:24.642Z","2019-12-29T11:02:24.638Z","2021-12-25T11:00:00.000Z"
"Avatar 2 is released in December 2021",70,,"pranomostro","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-29T15:04:08.593Z","2019-12-29T11:02:24.638Z","2021-12-25T11:00:00.000Z"
"US Treasury 10Y yield >= 3% in 2020",40,,"batemancapital","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-23T03:01:37.445Z","2019-12-23T03:01:37.441Z","2020-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"US Treasury 10Y yield >= 3% in 2020",15,,"pranomostro","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-30T13:33:24.121Z","2019-12-23T03:01:37.441Z","2020-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"US Treasury 10Y yield >= 3% in 2020",10,,"pranomostro","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-30T13:33:20.208Z","2019-12-23T03:01:37.441Z","2020-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"permissioned blockchains will enable sophisticated embezzlement

",93,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-12T22:30:58.000Z","2017-10-12T22:30:58.000Z","2027-10-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"permissioned blockchains will enable sophisticated embezzlement

",60,,"NickN","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-17T02:47:42.610Z","2017-10-12T22:30:58.000Z","2027-10-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"Lybrido passes largescale human trials with flying colours, no major side effects",65,,"exasperative","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-06T21:58:35.000Z","2016-05-21T22:22:10.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Lybrido passes largescale human trials with flying colours, no major side effects",43,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-21T22:22:10.000Z","2016-05-21T22:22:10.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2080 most manufacturing and processing of materials will be done in space",10,,"erikbjare","msevrens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-30T22:10:35.000Z","2014-10-28T22:36:41.000Z","2079-10-28T22:36:41.000Z"
"By 2080 most manufacturing and processing of materials will be done in space",70,,"msevrens","msevrens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-28T22:36:41.000Z","2014-10-28T22:36:41.000Z","2079-10-28T22:36:41.000Z"
"Over the next 100 years, California will slowly turn into a desert",3,,"Philip_W","msevrens","Conditioned on the fact that this particular prediction will actually be judged (i.e. no collapse of civilisation to prevent ecological preservation efforts).",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-30T13:36:30.000Z","2014-10-28T22:37:51.000Z","2114-10-28T22:37:51.000Z"
"Over the next 100 years, California will slowly turn into a desert",30,,"msevrens","msevrens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-28T22:37:51.000Z","2014-10-28T22:37:51.000Z","2114-10-28T22:37:51.000Z"
"AWS will announce an ap-southeast-3 region for Western Australia, by the end of 2020",80,,"bly","bly",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-04T02:09:34.251Z","2019-12-04T02:09:34.242Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"AWS will announce an ap-southeast-3 region for Western Australia, by the end of 2020",65,,"pranomostro","bly",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-06T09:36:47.059Z","2019-12-04T02:09:34.242Z","2021-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2030",85,,"erikbjare","sweeneyrod",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-30T22:06:59.000Z","2014-10-29T11:53:05.000Z","2030-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2030",90,,"sweeneyrod","sweeneyrod",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-29T11:53:05.000Z","2014-10-29T11:53:05.000Z","2030-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"If I'm still alive, I (xrisque) will still be single. ",50,,"ren","xrisque","We never know when we will meet someone.  That is unpredictable. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-11-11T12:34:06.000Z","2014-11-11T07:53:13.000Z","2016-06-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"If I'm still alive, I (xrisque) will still be single. ",97,,"xrisque","xrisque",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-11-11T07:53:13.000Z","2014-11-11T07:53:13.000Z","2016-06-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Harvard to reopen for fall 2020",32,,"EloiseRosen","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-14T18:53:16.278Z","2020-06-05T03:51:59.203Z","2020-08-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Harvard to reopen for fall 2020",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-05T03:51:59.207Z","2020-06-05T03:51:59.203Z","2020-08-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least some class of felons(for example those on a sex offender registry with convictions of violent crime) in the US required to get microchips implanted in them upon release",32,,"exasperative","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-06T22:01:21.000Z","2016-05-16T12:24:42.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least some class of felons(for example those on a sex offender registry with convictions of violent crime) in the US required to get microchips implanted in them upon release",43,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-16T12:24:42.000Z","2016-05-16T12:24:42.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Portugal - countrywide COVID-19 vaccination campaign has started by the end of 2020 ",20,,"LouisLC","LouisLC",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-06T09:00:34.212Z","2020-06-06T09:00:34.206Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Portugal - countrywide COVID-19 vaccination campaign has started by the end of 2020 ",6,,"Bruno Parga","LouisLC",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T13:15:21.115Z","2020-06-06T09:00:34.206Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Justen Zhang will change major at least once by December 2015",75,,"from3004","from3004",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-11-26T20:16:40.000Z","2014-11-26T20:16:40.000Z","2015-12-16T19:00:00.000Z"
"Justen Zhang will change major at least once by December 2015",50,,"from3004","from3004","Changing now incurs costs of having to stay in school for longer.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-11-26T20:19:05.000Z","2014-11-26T20:16:40.000Z","2015-12-16T19:00:00.000Z"
"Justen Zhang will change major at least once by December 2015",20,,"from3004","from3004",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-13T20:36:01.000Z","2014-11-26T20:16:40.000Z","2015-12-16T19:00:00.000Z"
"Justen Zhang will change major at least once by December 2015",30,,"sweeneyrod","from3004",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-06T14:07:21.000Z","2014-11-26T20:16:40.000Z","2015-12-16T19:00:00.000Z"
"By June 8, 2022, estimated US deaths for COVID-19 based on excess mortality will be less than 5 million deaths. ",88,,"NickN","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-18T17:55:30.040Z","2020-06-07T22:37:49.148Z","2022-06-15T22:00:00.000Z"
"By June 8, 2022, estimated US deaths for COVID-19 based on excess mortality will be less than 5 million deaths. ",86,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Updating percentage based on corrected timing. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-07T23:05:21.181Z","2020-06-07T22:37:49.148Z","2022-06-15T22:00:00.000Z"
"By June 8, 2022, estimated US deaths for COVID-19 based on excess mortality will be less than 5 million deaths. ",84,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-07T22:37:49.152Z","2020-06-07T22:37:49.148Z","2022-06-15T22:00:00.000Z"
"Diablo IV is released in 2021",40,,"qznc","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-29T11:19:32.676Z","2019-12-29T11:19:32.664Z","2021-12-31T11:00:00.000Z"
"Diablo IV is released in 2021",45,,"pranomostro","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-30T13:34:56.070Z","2019-12-29T11:19:32.664Z","2021-12-31T11:00:00.000Z"
"Dave Strider (Alpha timeline, from Beta universe) will die a permanent death by the conclusion of Homestuck",35,,"ChairmanMeow","ChairmanMeow",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-31T03:12:28.000Z","2013-10-31T03:12:28.000Z","2015-10-31T03:12:28.000Z"
"Dave Strider (Alpha timeline, from Beta universe) will die a permanent death by the conclusion of Homestuck",30,,"David","ChairmanMeow",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-25T13:19:20.000Z","2013-10-31T03:12:28.000Z","2015-10-31T03:12:28.000Z"
"2019 EU passes regulations requiring labeling of DRM-encumbered products.",40,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-10T14:18:16.000Z","2016-05-10T14:18:16.000Z","2020-01-21T12:00:00.000Z"
"2019 EU passes regulations requiring labeling of DRM-encumbered products.",20,,"Medea","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-15T10:54:02.000Z","2016-05-10T14:18:16.000Z","2020-01-21T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kobe Bryant will own a professional sports team outside the US within the next 12 years (till 2024)",29,,"themusicgod1","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T00:32:02.000Z","2012-03-07T22:30:55.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kobe Bryant will own a professional sports team outside the US within the next 12 years (till 2024)",65,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-07T22:30:55.000Z","2012-03-07T22:30:55.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2020, there is no implementation of Scottish indyref2",100,,"Deepak","Deepak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T14:10:34.113Z","2020-06-11T16:21:14.475Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2020, there is no implementation of Scottish indyref2",100,,"MichaelBlack","Deepak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-23T05:01:09.741Z","2020-06-11T16:21:14.475Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2020, there is no implementation of Scottish indyref2",90,,"Deepak","Deepak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-11T16:21:14.480Z","2020-06-11T16:21:14.475Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one of the Apollo astronauts will become a centenarian",70,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T20:50:27.000Z","2015-07-11T20:50:27.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one of the Apollo astronauts will become a centenarian",65,,"JoshuaZ","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-12T00:51:46.000Z","2015-07-11T20:50:27.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"ASOIAF: Wba Fabj vf jnetrq ol Oybbqenira be Oena (be obgu)",42,,"themusicgod1","muflax",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-28T06:17:50.000Z","2016-04-28T00:22:43.000Z","2020-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"ASOIAF: Wba Fabj vf jnetrq ol Oybbqenira be Oena (be obgu)",90,,"muflax","muflax",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-28T00:22:43.000Z","2016-04-28T00:22:43.000Z","2020-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"The solar cell efficiency record will be at 60% by January 1st, 2035.",81,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-06T19:17:47.000Z","2014-12-06T19:17:47.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The solar cell efficiency record will be at 60% by January 1st, 2035.",75,,"JoshuaZ","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-07T01:29:10.000Z","2014-12-06T19:17:47.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"2026: Last DRM-spewing company closes down. People once again share media w/o technological barricades",90,,"TiTanTHPS","themusicgod1","Even earlier I'd bet. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-26T00:47:11.000Z","2016-05-10T14:24:02.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"2026: Last DRM-spewing company closes down. People once again share media w/o technological barricades",7,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-10T14:24:02.000Z","2016-05-10T14:24:02.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Federal Reserve does not reduce target Fed Fund rate in 2020",70,,"batemancapital","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-23T03:02:06.313Z","2019-12-23T03:02:06.310Z","2020-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"Federal Reserve does not reduce target Fed Fund rate in 2020",40,,"pranomostro","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-30T13:23:31.015Z","2019-12-23T03:02:06.310Z","2020-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 Atlas-style robots will be used on the battlefield as ground forces.",55,,"themusicgod1","sflicht",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-07T16:23:54.000Z","2016-05-07T06:04:11.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025 Atlas-style robots will be used on the battlefield as ground forces.",10,,"sflicht","sflicht",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-07T06:04:11.000Z","2016-05-07T06:04:11.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Netherlands will make their 2020 Urgenda climate goal",23,,"Stucwerk","Stucwerk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-26T14:00:06.900Z","2019-11-26T14:00:06.896Z","2021-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"The Netherlands will make their 2020 Urgenda climate goal",35,,"pranomostro","Stucwerk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-01T22:51:01.489Z","2019-11-26T14:00:06.896Z","2021-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"I will be a teetotaler for the entire period between now and 2025-01-01",90,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-12T17:28:53.000Z","2015-07-12T17:28:53.000Z","2025-01-02T18:00:00.000Z"
"I will be a teetotaler for the entire period between now and 2025-01-01",75,,"EloiseRosen","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-14T01:24:51.000Z","2015-07-12T17:28:53.000Z","2025-01-02T18:00:00.000Z"
"arrested within five (5) years ",75,,"deoh","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-10-18T20:10:35.940Z","2019-09-29T16:40:42.732Z","2024-09-29T17:30:00.000Z"
"arrested within five (5) years ",95,,"two2thehead","two2thehead","Odds of this happening have just increased.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-cult-of-onision-a-body-positivity-youtuber-accused-of-preying-on-young-girls",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-18T14:50:32.184Z","2019-09-29T16:40:42.732Z","2024-09-29T17:30:00.000Z"
"arrested within five (5) years ",85,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-29T16:40:42.737Z","2019-09-29T16:40:42.732Z","2024-09-29T17:30:00.000Z"
"UK police officers will routinely use real-time (live) facial recognition software and be equipped with webcams to aid in the apprehension of wanted criminals.",30,,"PipFoweraker","AdamSmith","I'd be surprised if it was anything we recognise presently (2016) as webcams.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-16T01:17:01.000Z","2016-04-30T00:42:26.000Z","2023-04-02T09:00:00.000Z"
"UK police officers will routinely use real-time (live) facial recognition software and be equipped with webcams to aid in the apprehension of wanted criminals.",100,,"AdamSmith","AdamSmith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-30T00:42:26.000Z","2016-04-30T00:42:26.000Z","2023-04-02T09:00:00.000Z"
"By 1 January 2050, the average house price in Australia will be at least AUD $1 million dollars.",10,,"najdorf","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-11T11:56:38.000Z","2013-11-11T11:56:38.000Z","2050-01-02T01:00:00.000Z"
"By 1 January 2050, the average house price in Australia will be at least AUD $1 million dollars.",100,,"wiilly","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-24T12:09:43.000Z","2013-11-11T11:56:38.000Z","2050-01-02T01:00:00.000Z"
"ASOIAF: Wba Fabj jvyy or jnetrq ol Oybbqenira",80,,"muflax","muflax",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-27T23:27:00.000Z","2016-04-27T23:27:00.000Z","2020-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"ASOIAF: Wba Fabj jvyy or jnetrq ol Oybbqenira",42,,"themusicgod1","muflax","ooooh.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-28T06:16:40.000Z","2016-04-27T23:27:00.000Z","2020-01-01T21:00:00.000Z"
"Will Trump be president on January 21, 2021 (the next presidential inauguration date)?",0,,"E. C. A","Ethan Perez","","","Trump,election,president","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T19:52:36.497Z","2020-11-12T18:41:25.223Z","2021-01-21T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will Trump be president on January 21, 2021 (the next presidential inauguration date)?",11.3,,"Ethan Perez","Ethan Perez","https://www.electionbettingodds.com/","","Trump,election,president","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T18:45:59.349Z","2020-11-12T18:41:25.223Z","2021-01-21T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will Trump be president on January 21, 2021 (the next presidential inauguration date)?",10,,"Ethan Perez","Ethan Perez","","","Trump,election,president","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T18:41:25.238Z","2020-11-12T18:41:25.223Z","2021-01-21T07:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Idaho in 2020",2.97,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Idaho in 2020",0.58,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Longtermism will be the general outlook of EAs",75,,"wolfish_wrath","wolfish_wrath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-19T19:32:06.749Z","2019-09-19T19:32:06.746Z","2024-03-16T11:30:00.000Z"
"Longtermism will be the general outlook of EAs",65,,"pranomostro","wolfish_wrath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-10-01T20:17:10.998Z","2019-09-19T19:32:06.746Z","2024-03-16T11:30:00.000Z"
"Positively shaping AI and reducing biorisk will be the top 2 focuses within existential risk reduction (conditional on X-Risk still being a priority)",50,,"wolfish_wrath","wolfish_wrath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-19T19:32:06.743Z","2019-09-19T19:32:06.740Z","2024-03-16T11:30:00.000Z"
"Positively shaping AI and reducing biorisk will be the top 2 focuses within existential risk reduction (conditional on X-Risk still being a priority)",60,,"pranomostro","wolfish_wrath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-10-01T20:17:10.925Z","2019-09-19T19:32:06.740Z","2024-03-16T11:30:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Hawaii in 2020",93.14,,"PredictIt","PredictIt","Implied prediction from (D/D+R) yes odds at 11:20am, 2 Nov 2020 PT",,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Biden wins Hawaii in 2020",99.3,,"Nate Silver / 538","PredictIt",,,"2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Existential risk reduction will have more attention than any other cause",35,,"pranomostro","wolfish_wrath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-10-01T20:17:10.969Z","2019-09-19T19:32:06.733Z","2024-03-16T11:30:00.000Z"
"Existential risk reduction will have more attention than any other cause",65,,"wolfish_wrath","wolfish_wrath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-19T19:32:06.736Z","2019-09-19T19:32:06.733Z","2024-03-16T11:30:00.000Z"
"Republicans will win back both chambers of congress in 2022",42,,"Jennifer","SeriousPod","GOP having either the Senate or House in 2020 would mean ""HAVING either in 2022"" would NOT be literally ""winning either BACK"". I'm assuming this technicality is unintentional. My probability is just raw ""Republicans control Congress in 2022"".",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-03T06:00:34.892Z","2018-08-02T00:33:22.000Z","2022-11-08T12:00:00.000Z"
"Republicans will win back both chambers of congress in 2022",55,,"SeriousPod","SeriousPod",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-08-02T00:33:22.000Z","2018-08-02T00:33:22.000Z","2022-11-08T12:00:00.000Z"
"Apple's valuation in 2025 to be less than half that of its valuation in 2015",42,,"themusicgod1","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-22T04:08:56.000Z","2015-08-06T18:56:55.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Apple's valuation in 2025 to be less than half that of its valuation in 2015",30,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-06T18:56:55.000Z","2015-08-06T18:56:55.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"gwern will get married by 2090",10,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-12T12:09:38.957Z","2020-06-20T10:16:03.360Z","2090-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"gwern will get married by 2090",55,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-22T11:21:30.021Z","2020-06-20T10:16:03.360Z","2090-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"gwern will get married by 2090",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-20T10:16:03.364Z","2020-06-20T10:16:03.360Z","2090-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By June 2022, I judge that Human Challenge Trials are attributable to making the date I personally get a COVID-19 vaccine earlier than it otherwise would've been without Human Challenge Trials",8,,"JoshuaZ","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-20T16:36:27.498Z","2020-06-20T15:35:36.549Z","2022-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By June 2022, I judge that Human Challenge Trials are attributable to making the date I personally get a COVID-19 vaccine earlier than it otherwise would've been without Human Challenge Trials",10,,"peter_hurford","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-20T15:35:36.555Z","2020-06-20T15:35:36.549Z","2022-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cuba",14,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-18T09:43:24.500Z","2019-09-18T09:43:24.497Z","2021-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cuba",10,,"pranomostro","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-10-05T00:00:30.068Z","2019-09-18T09:43:24.497Z","2021-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"the United States",5,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-18T09:43:24.486Z","2019-09-18T09:43:24.483Z","2021-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"the United States",25,,"pranomostro","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-10-05T00:00:16.730Z","2019-09-18T09:43:24.483Z","2021-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"France",14,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-18T09:43:24.493Z","2019-09-18T09:43:24.490Z","2021-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"France",10,,"pranomostro","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-10-05T00:00:22.182Z","2019-09-18T09:43:24.490Z","2021-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will start a PhD program within the next five years. ",46,,"themusicgod1","amitpamin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:46:05.000Z","2012-10-10T00:53:40.000Z","2017-10-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will start a PhD program within the next five years. ",35,,"amitpamin","amitpamin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-10T00:53:40.000Z","2012-10-10T00:53:40.000Z","2017-10-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"a member of the former Soviet Union",67,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-18T09:43:24.479Z","2019-09-18T09:43:24.476Z","2021-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"a member of the former Soviet Union",45,,"pranomostro","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-10-05T00:00:08.344Z","2019-09-18T09:43:24.476Z","2021-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"a member of the former Soviet Union",49,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-18T05:45:22.451Z","2019-09-18T09:43:24.476Z","2021-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"An Anti-Specieist World by 2150. Animal Exploitation will be a thing of the past, old blatant discrimination no longer accepted and the reduction of wild animal suffering a real task.",70,,"deanmullen2014","deanmullen2014",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-12-31T00:54:21.000Z","2013-12-31T00:54:21.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"An Anti-Specieist World by 2150. Animal Exploitation will be a thing of the past, old blatant discrimination no longer accepted and the reduction of wild animal suffering a real task.",10,,"Patrick Brinich-Langlois","deanmullen2014","The first seems somewhat likely; the second, not so much.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-13T09:37:23.000Z","2013-12-31T00:54:21.000Z","2150-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a crocs movie before 2040.",10,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-29T20:45:56.915Z","2019-08-29T20:45:56.911Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a crocs movie before 2040.",2,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-31T06:22:39.765Z","2019-08-29T20:45:56.911Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a crocs movie before 2040.",5,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-03T23:11:49.847Z","2019-08-29T20:45:56.911Z","2040-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Marginal Revolution] Facebook Credits, or some other pseudo-currency, will become *widely accepted* for offline transactions throughout the world within ten years.
",55,,"chemotaxis101","chemotaxis101",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-02T15:07:45.000Z","2012-03-02T15:07:45.000Z","2022-12-31T14:00:00.000Z"
"[Marginal Revolution] Facebook Credits, or some other pseudo-currency, will become *widely accepted* for offline transactions throughout the world within ten years.
",35,,"RandomThinker","chemotaxis101","Does bitcoin count?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-05T22:31:49.000Z","2012-03-02T15:07:45.000Z","2022-12-31T14:00:00.000Z"
"Sea level rise will exceed 2m by 2100.",94,,"themusicgod1","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T13:40:00.000Z","2012-10-02T02:47:36.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Sea level rise will exceed 2m by 2100.",75,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-02T02:47:36.000Z","2012-10-02T02:47:36.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will have eaten lab-grown meat at least once every 2 months for one whole year (not necessarily Jan-Jan) before 2030",50,,"credunkist","wolfish_wrath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-17T19:46:32.748Z","2019-07-22T11:53:03.499Z","2030-01-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"I will have eaten lab-grown meat at least once every 2 months for one whole year (not necessarily Jan-Jan) before 2030",60,,"wolfish_wrath","wolfish_wrath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-22T11:53:03.503Z","2019-07-22T11:53:03.499Z","2030-01-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"I will visit LessWrong once a year until 2027",35,,"wolfish_wrath","wolfish_wrath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-20T11:58:35.532Z","2019-07-20T11:58:35.526Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will visit LessWrong once a year until 2027",25,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","wolfish_wrath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-03T00:24:37.257Z","2019-07-20T11:58:35.526Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will be the world's second largest producer and consumer of steel in 2016(from 4th in 2014).Production 140 MT and consumption 104MT. ",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar","I additionally predict 

Bharat will pass the USA in steel production in 2015(full calendar year).",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-13T13:26:54.000Z","2015-09-13T13:25:41.000Z","2016-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will be the world's second largest producer and consumer of steel in 2016(from 4th in 2014).Production 140 MT and consumption 104MT. ",75,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar","Can you please make the second prediction a separate prediction so it can be judged separately? ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-13T15:03:30.000Z","2015-09-13T13:25:41.000Z","2016-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will be the world's second largest producer and consumer of steel in 2016(from 4th in 2014).Production 140 MT and consumption 104MT. ",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-13T13:25:41.000Z","2015-09-13T13:25:41.000Z","2016-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"US will ally with Iran by 2030 - Alex Lightman",55,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-29T19:23:48.000Z","2015-07-29T19:23:48.000Z","2031-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"US will ally with Iran by 2030 - Alex Lightman",60,,"NathanMcKnight","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-16T17:27:36.000Z","2015-07-29T19:23:48.000Z","2031-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"U.S. Federal Reserve lowers interest rate below 100bps before end of 2020",30,,"objclone","objclone",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-17T13:18:36.424Z","2019-07-17T13:18:36.420Z","2020-12-31T20:00:00.000Z"
"U.S. Federal Reserve lowers interest rate below 100bps before end of 2020",35,,"pranomostro","objclone",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-17T19:52:00.269Z","2019-07-17T13:18:36.420Z","2020-12-31T20:00:00.000Z"
"China to win more shooting medals than the USA",50,,"pranomostro","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-17T19:51:49.579Z","2019-07-17T09:39:11.670Z","2020-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"China to win more shooting medals than the USA",56,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-17T09:39:11.713Z","2019-07-17T09:39:11.670Z","2020-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"Japan to win the most karate medals of any country or Olympic committee",66,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-17T09:39:11.666Z","2019-07-17T09:39:11.663Z","2020-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"Japan to win the most karate medals of any country or Olympic committee",65,,"pranomostro","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-17T19:51:42.013Z","2019-07-17T09:39:11.663Z","2020-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russia to win the most wrestling medals of any country or Olympic committee",64,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-17T09:39:11.653Z","2019-07-17T09:39:11.650Z","2020-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russia to win the most wrestling medals of any country or Olympic committee",55,,"pranomostro","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-17T19:51:26.633Z","2019-07-17T09:39:11.650Z","2020-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russia to win the most wrestling medals of any country or Olympic committee",0,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-18T05:44:41.682Z","2019-07-17T09:39:11.650Z","2020-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"Openly atheist POTUS ",15,,"Athrithalix","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-06T12:09:05.000Z","2017-10-06T02:53:05.000Z","2036-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Openly atheist POTUS ",30,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-06T02:53:05.000Z","2017-10-06T02:53:05.000Z","2036-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea to win more weightlifting medals than the USA",30,,"pranomostro","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-17T19:51:20.657Z","2019-07-17T09:39:11.643Z","2020-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea to win more weightlifting medals than the USA",62,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-17T09:39:11.646Z","2019-07-17T09:39:11.643Z","2020-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"France to win the most judo medals of any country or Olympic committee",30,,"pranomostro","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-17T19:50:40.600Z","2019-07-17T09:39:11.636Z","2020-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"France to win the most judo medals of any country or Olympic committee",39,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-17T09:39:11.639Z","2019-07-17T09:39:11.636Z","2020-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"France to win the most judo medals of any country or Olympic committee",25,,"pranomostro","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-17T19:50:44.611Z","2019-07-17T09:39:11.636Z","2020-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"Uganda will legalize Gay Marriage by 2130. Yes you read that right! It will probably occur in the 2110s or 2120s.",90,,"deanmullen2014","deanmullen2014",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-12-31T01:02:20.000Z","2013-12-31T01:02:20.000Z","2130-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Uganda will legalize Gay Marriage by 2130. Yes you read that right! It will probably occur in the 2110s or 2120s.",95,,"simplicio","deanmullen2014","This prediction confuses me. If you think it's likely to happen only in the last two decades of the stated timeframe, why the high confidence that it'll happen by then at all?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-02T15:30:06.000Z","2013-12-31T01:02:20.000Z","2130-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"(Rick&Morty): Orgu vf gur pybar",90,,"bobpage","Michael Dickens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-06T05:16:14.000Z","2017-10-04T19:53:17.000Z","2019-10-04T19:53:17.000Z"
"(Rick&Morty): Orgu vf gur pybar",72,,"Michael Dickens","Michael Dickens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-04T19:53:17.000Z","2017-10-04T19:53:17.000Z","2019-10-04T19:53:17.000Z"
"Develoment of roughly human-level machine intelligence by 2050, assuming no global catastrophe halts progress",90,,"Shane Legg","Alexander Kruel","Shane gave a full answer of: 10% by 2018, 50% by 2028, and 90% by 2050.","In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it.","AI,ai-interviews","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Develoment of roughly human-level machine intelligence by 2050, assuming no global catastrophe halts progress",10,,"Michael Littman","Alexander Kruel","Michael gave a full answer of: 10% by 2050, 50% by 2062, and 90% by 2112.","In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it.","AI,ai-interviews","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"LUST ICO turns out to be a scam",80,,"Tenobrus","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-03T18:48:36.000Z","2017-10-03T15:15:31.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"LUST ICO turns out to be a scam",93,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-03T15:15:31.000Z","2017-10-03T15:15:31.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Brazil will beat Argentina in the 2030 World Cup Final in Beonas Aires.",1,,"mfb","deanmullen2014","This value includes the (dominant) non-certainty that those countries are in the final game, and the world cup will happen in Argentina.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-13T21:32:13.000Z","2013-12-31T01:34:55.000Z","2030-07-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Brazil will beat Argentina in the 2030 World Cup Final in Beonas Aires.",10,,"deanmullen2014","deanmullen2014",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-12-31T01:34:55.000Z","2013-12-31T01:34:55.000Z","2030-07-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"The SpaceX BFS to Mars missions will not stick to the schedule announced at IAC 2017.",75,,"Flenser","Athrithalix","Assuming the schedule is 2 cargo missions launched in 2022 that intend to land on Mars. Ignoring the 2024 scheduled missions since this is set to ""known on 2022-10-01"".",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-08T05:58:43.000Z","2017-10-03T09:45:14.000Z","2022-10-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The SpaceX BFS to Mars missions will not stick to the schedule announced at IAC 2017.",90,,"Athrithalix","Athrithalix",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-03T09:45:14.000Z","2017-10-03T09:45:14.000Z","2022-10-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Japan to win the most judo medals of any country or Olympic committee",40,,"pranomostro","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-17T19:50:30.271Z","2019-07-17T09:39:11.630Z","2020-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"Japan to win the most judo medals of any country or Olympic committee",44,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-17T09:39:11.633Z","2019-07-17T09:39:11.630Z","2020-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"China to win the most weightlifting medals of any country or Olympic committee",65,,"pranomostro","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-17T19:48:48.459Z","2019-07-17T09:39:11.623Z","2020-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"China to win the most weightlifting medals of any country or Olympic committee",63,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-18T05:44:48.701Z","2019-07-17T09:39:11.623Z","2020-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"China to win the most weightlifting medals of any country or Olympic committee",58,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-17T09:39:11.626Z","2019-07-17T09:39:11.623Z","2020-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"Japan to win more medals than any other country or Olympic committee",1,,"pranomostro","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-17T19:48:40.309Z","2019-07-17T09:39:11.616Z","2020-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"Japan to win more medals than any other country or Olympic committee",2,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-17T09:39:11.619Z","2019-07-17T09:39:11.616Z","2020-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"Taiwan (or ""Chinese Taipei"") to win at least one medal",94,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-17T09:39:11.606Z","2019-07-17T09:39:11.603Z","2020-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"Taiwan (or ""Chinese Taipei"") to win at least one medal",80,,"pranomostro","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-17T19:47:34.180Z","2019-07-17T09:39:11.603Z","2020-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"Taiwan (or ""Chinese Taipei"") to win at least one medal",95,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-18T05:45:12.627Z","2019-07-17T09:39:11.603Z","2020-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"Taiwan to compete as ""Chinese Taipei""",90,,"pranomostro","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-17T19:46:50.735Z","2019-07-17T09:39:11.596Z","2020-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"Taiwan to compete as ""Chinese Taipei""",93,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-17T09:39:11.599Z","2019-07-17T09:39:11.596Z","2020-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"American ROE (in any relevant theatre) amended to allow US troops to fire on government-associated pakistanis within pakistan borders",1,,"PlacidPlatypus","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-21T19:52:27.410Z","2017-02-21T14:56:41.000Z","2021-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"American ROE (in any relevant theatre) amended to allow US troops to fire on government-associated pakistanis within pakistan borders",20,,"PlacidPlatypus","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-02T01:25:30.000Z","2017-02-21T14:56:41.000Z","2021-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"American ROE (in any relevant theatre) amended to allow US troops to fire on government-associated pakistanis within pakistan borders",51,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-21T14:56:41.000Z","2017-02-21T14:56:41.000Z","2021-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"American ROE (in any relevant theatre) amended to allow US troops to fire on government-associated pakistanis within pakistan borders",3,,"PlacidPlatypus","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-21T19:52:16.653Z","2017-02-21T14:56:41.000Z","2021-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Lil Nas X's debut album (not his EP) will peak at #1 on the Billboard 200",45,,"pranomostro","bendini",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-14T23:23:37.679Z","2019-07-12T22:34:45.513Z","2021-07-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"Lil Nas X's debut album (not his EP) will peak at #1 on the Billboard 200",70,,"bendini","bendini",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-12T22:34:45.518Z","2019-07-12T22:34:45.513Z","2021-07-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"AlphaStar reaches GM league at some point during the research period  ",90,,"Michael Dickens","Michael Dickens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-11T04:23:14.085Z","2019-07-11T04:23:14.080Z","2019-10-11T04:23:14.000Z"
"AlphaStar reaches GM league at some point during the research period  ",60,,"pranomostro","Michael Dickens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-11T19:16:58.953Z","2019-07-11T04:23:14.080Z","2019-10-11T04:23:14.000Z"
"Goodreads to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-22T00:29:12.000Z","2015-07-22T00:29:12.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Goodreads to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",25,,"DaFranker","InquilineKea","Wrenching my heart to realize this is really my best estimate with the information I have. I don't want it to go! Nooo!",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-23T18:30:13.000Z","2015-07-22T00:29:12.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Etherium price ≥ $500",20,,"myah","myah",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-06T20:24:59.498Z","2020-07-06T20:24:59.491Z","2021-07-06T20:24:59.000Z"
"Etherium price ≥ $500",10,,"ayegill","myah",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-16T14:29:27.520Z","2020-07-06T20:24:59.491Z","2021-07-06T20:24:59.000Z"
"Someone is jailed for building or selling child fembots(conversant, 'anatomically functional' robots capable of bipedal self directed movement that look like underage girls) ",65,,"Athrithalix","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-03T10:20:25.000Z","2017-09-29T15:18:42.000Z","2027-09-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"Someone is jailed for building or selling child fembots(conversant, 'anatomically functional' robots capable of bipedal self directed movement that look like underage girls) ",90,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-29T15:18:42.000Z","2017-09-29T15:18:42.000Z","2027-09-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will be in a romantic relationship with a woman whom I love and who loves me at some point between now and my 30th birthday.",55,,"crabman","John Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-11T05:12:21.000Z","2018-04-10T01:39:34.000Z","2023-10-10T16:00:00.000Z"
"I will be in a romantic relationship with a woman whom I love and who loves me at some point between now and my 30th birthday.",20,,"John Smith","John Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-10T01:39:34.000Z","2018-04-10T01:39:34.000Z","2023-10-10T16:00:00.000Z"
"Still no first kiss before my 30th birthday.",40,,"John Smith","John Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-10T01:36:09.000Z","2018-04-10T01:36:09.000Z","2023-10-10T16:00:00.000Z"
"Still no first kiss before my 30th birthday.",20,,"crabman","John Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-11T05:14:13.000Z","2018-04-10T01:36:09.000Z","2023-10-10T16:00:00.000Z"
"NGE: Studio Khara will be dissolved or substantially cease operations after completing _Rebuild_.",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T02:34:31.000Z","2011-09-07T17:08:23.000Z","2018-01-01T18:47:54.000Z"
"NGE: Studio Khara will be dissolved or substantially cease operations after completing _Rebuild_.",35,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-07T17:08:23.000Z","2011-09-07T17:08:23.000Z","2018-01-01T18:47:54.000Z"
"“The International Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report will conclude it is likely, or more than likely, that human-caused global warming has increased hurricane intensity in the 1995-2005 time period.”",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern","if it was going to be there it'd be in the  physical basis report, and it's not there.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-07T00:04:28.000Z","2010-07-31T09:18:34.000Z","2015-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“The International Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report will conclude it is likely, or more than likely, that human-caused global warming has increased hurricane intensity in the 1995-2005 time period.”",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-31T09:18:35.000Z","2010-07-31T09:18:34.000Z","2015-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Macron will not be re-elected as French President.",40,,"phistr","phistr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-08T08:03:02.000Z","2018-04-08T08:03:02.000Z","2022-06-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Macron will not be re-elected as French President.",65,,"davatk","phistr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-16T23:40:32.393Z","2018-04-08T08:03:02.000Z","2022-06-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Macron will not be re-elected as French President.",55,,"davatk","phistr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-17T18:33:55.000Z","2018-04-08T08:03:02.000Z","2022-06-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Wind will produce 7% or more of consumed US power by 2022. Linked to my believe the US will have no transcontinental transmission strategy by then.",49,,"themusicgod1","atomicspaceman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-09T15:19:14.000Z","2017-02-08T16:23:27.000Z","2022-03-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"Wind will produce 7% or more of consumed US power by 2022. Linked to my believe the US will have no transcontinental transmission strategy by then.",60,,"atomicspaceman","atomicspaceman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-08T16:23:27.000Z","2017-02-08T16:23:27.000Z","2022-03-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will the community prediction on this question be higher than 50%?",25,,"Tyle S","Mark Xu","","at least it's not anti-inductive...","meta","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T15:51:53.808Z","2020-11-17T23:18:54.684Z","2020-11-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will the community prediction on this question be higher than 50%?",1,,"Mark Xu","Mark Xu","","at least it's not anti-inductive...","meta","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T23:18:54.690Z","2020-11-17T23:18:54.684Z","2020-11-24T08:00:00.000Z"
"Universal literacy worldwide by 2040 for 15-24 year olds.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-09T11:31:43.000Z","2015-09-09T11:31:43.000Z","2040-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"Universal literacy worldwide by 2040 for 15-24 year olds.",90,,"NathanMcKnight","Raahul_Kumar","Taking this to mean ""near-universal"". ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-07T21:48:41.000Z","2015-09-09T11:31:43.000Z","2040-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"arrested within five (5) years",55,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-19T18:15:43.009Z","2019-07-19T18:15:42.999Z","2024-07-19T18:30:00.000Z"
"arrested within five (5) years",45,,"pranomostro","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-21T00:06:25.122Z","2019-07-19T18:15:42.999Z","2024-07-19T18:30:00.000Z"
"By 2025, the volume of robocalls will exceed the volume of live calls on the regular phone system",63,,"themusicgod1","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T12:48:11.000Z","2012-09-16T18:42:19.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2025, the volume of robocalls will exceed the volume of live calls on the regular phone system",65,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-16T18:42:19.000Z","2012-09-16T18:42:19.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"
“A March 2004 article stated: ""More than 3.5 billion years after nature transformed non-living matter into living things, populating Earth with a cornucopia of animals and plants, scientists say they are finally ready to try their hand at creating life.",60,,"pranomostro","gwern","Unsure  about the current state.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:51:23.911Z","2010-07-30T09:06:43.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"
“A March 2004 article stated: ""More than 3.5 billion years after nature transformed non-living matter into living things, populating Earth with a cornucopia of animals and plants, scientists say they are finally ready to try their hand at creating life.",80,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:47:04.886Z","2010-07-30T09:06:43.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"
“A March 2004 article stated: ""More than 3.5 billion years after nature transformed non-living matter into living things, populating Earth with a cornucopia of animals and plants, scientists say they are finally ready to try their hand at creating life.",90,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T09:06:43.000Z","2010-07-30T09:06:43.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cuba to win more wrestling medals than the USA",56,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-17T09:39:11.659Z","2019-07-17T09:39:11.656Z","2020-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cuba to win more wrestling medals than the USA",40,,"pranomostro","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-17T19:51:35.404Z","2019-07-17T09:39:11.656Z","2020-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"5% of US energy production will be from solar sources by 2022.",50,,"atomicspaceman","atomicspaceman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-08T16:20:33.000Z","2017-02-08T16:20:33.000Z","2022-03-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"5% of US energy production will be from solar sources by 2022.",49,,"themusicgod1","atomicspaceman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-09T15:19:25.000Z","2017-02-08T16:20:33.000Z","2022-03-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"5% of US energy production will be from solar sources by 2022.",60,,"atomicspaceman","atomicspaceman","Linked to my belief that no power storage cost breakthrough will occur by then.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-08T16:23:13.000Z","2017-02-08T16:20:33.000Z","2022-03-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"A bad thing happens, and President Trump and the intelligence community publicly disagree about whether it was caused by terrorists.",90,,"playablecharacter","HonoreDB",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-30T17:24:56.000Z","2017-01-30T16:21:34.000Z","2025-01-30T16:21:34.000Z"
"A bad thing happens, and President Trump and the intelligence community publicly disagree about whether it was caused by terrorists.",75,,"HonoreDB","HonoreDB",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-30T16:21:34.000Z","2017-01-30T16:21:34.000Z","2025-01-30T16:21:34.000Z"
"The average winning bid for the 2016 NYC Individual Accessible taxi medallion auction will be below $700,000.",48,,"JoshuaZ","unexpectedEOF",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-13T18:53:27.000Z","2015-08-13T01:00:21.000Z","2016-05-16T22:00:00.000Z"
"The average winning bid for the 2016 NYC Individual Accessible taxi medallion auction will be below $700,000.",55,,"unexpectedEOF","unexpectedEOF","Judged by http://www.nyc.gov/html/tlc/html/industry/medallion_auction_current_and_past_auction_results.shtml",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-13T17:16:06.000Z","2015-08-13T01:00:21.000Z","2016-05-16T22:00:00.000Z"
"The average winning bid for the 2016 NYC Individual Accessible taxi medallion auction will be below $700,000.",55,,"unexpectedEOF","unexpectedEOF",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-13T01:00:21.000Z","2015-08-13T01:00:21.000Z","2016-05-16T22:00:00.000Z"
"In the future, a woman will be on the agenda with great scientific research, and this case will affect female software developers in a good way.",95,,"wizzwizz4","smodnix","As stated, I think this is vague enough that it's nearly certain; my 5% is that I've misinterpreted.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-11T19:45:22.124Z","2020-07-11T06:05:57.427Z","2023-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the future, a woman will be on the agenda with great scientific research, and this case will affect female software developers in a good way.",80,,"smodnix","smodnix",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-11T06:05:57.432Z","2020-07-11T06:05:57.427Z","2023-01-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a magnitude 7+ earthquake in SF bay area between 2020 and 2030",55,,"JohnGreer","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-15T23:26:59.312Z","2020-07-13T22:57:38.218Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a magnitude 7+ earthquake in SF bay area between 2020 and 2030",55,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-13T22:57:38.226Z","2020-07-13T22:57:38.218Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will get a job in academia in Denmark after my PhD",40,,"Adam Zerner","ayegill",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-11T20:34:27.300Z","2020-07-16T14:19:19.970Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will get a job in academia in Denmark after my PhD",50,,"ayegill","ayegill",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-16T14:19:19.974Z","2020-07-16T14:19:19.970Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, at least 25 of the 30 stocks currently in the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be dropped from the index and replaced with other companies.”",50,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:31:03.311Z","2010-07-30T05:59:51.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“By 2025, at least 25 of the 30 stocks currently in the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be dropped from the index and replaced with other companies.”",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T05:59:51.000Z","2010-07-30T05:59:51.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The S&P 500 is above its current (2020-07-18) level on 2021-01-01",80,,"azatris","ayegill",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-20T13:55:46.676Z","2020-07-18T14:02:28.213Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The S&P 500 is above its current (2020-07-18) level on 2021-01-01",40,,"ayegill","ayegill",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-18T14:02:28.218Z","2020-07-18T14:02:28.213Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The S&P 500 is above its current (2020-07-18) level on 2021-01-01",60,,"ayegill","ayegill",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-18T09:54:51.028Z","2020-07-18T14:02:28.213Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"If the Earth's magnetic field reverses polarity before the confirmation of axions, the data collected during the event will provide confirmation. ",25,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-20T15:49:30.000Z","2014-10-20T15:49:29.000Z","3014-10-20T15:49:29.000Z"
"If the Earth's magnetic field reverses polarity before the confirmation of axions, the data collected during the event will provide confirmation. ",90,,"phreeza","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-27T13:14:51.000Z","2014-10-20T15:49:29.000Z","3014-10-20T15:49:29.000Z"
"Certain friend will get themselves killed before graduation (given that they graduate). Not necessarily suicide.",2,,"npcuck","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-05T07:41:25.000Z","2017-03-05T07:40:46.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Certain friend will get themselves killed before graduation (given that they graduate). Not necessarily suicide.",2,,"playablecharacter","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-05T07:40:46.000Z","2017-03-05T07:40:46.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Gift from N is a kitchen appliance.",52,,"EloiseRosen","memoriesofbutter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-26T07:20:29.000Z","2015-12-24T16:25:42.000Z","2015-12-28T17:00:00.000Z"
"Gift from N is a kitchen appliance.",60,,"memoriesofbutter","memoriesofbutter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-24T16:25:42.000Z","2015-12-24T16:25:42.000Z","2015-12-28T17:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden will die within five years.",9,,"JoshuaZ","JohnGreer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-25T18:58:39.883Z","2020-07-25T17:51:49.155Z","2025-07-25T17:51:49.000Z"
"Joe Biden will die within five years.",38,,"JohnGreer","JohnGreer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-25T17:51:49.158Z","2020-07-25T17:51:49.155Z","2025-07-25T17:51:49.000Z"
"Politics, Hong Kong - Pro-democracy candidates win a Legislative Council majority in Hong Kong's next legislative election, and such occurs within 2020.",8,,"jbeshir","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-26T02:52:29.884Z","2020-07-26T02:52:29.879Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Politics, Hong Kong - Pro-democracy candidates win a Legislative Council majority in Hong Kong's next legislative election, and such occurs within 2020.",10,,"NickN","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-17T04:02:50.662Z","2020-07-26T02:52:29.879Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2046 0% children under 5 will be underweight globally.",24,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-21T13:10:01.000Z","2015-12-21T11:07:57.000Z","2046-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2046 0% children under 5 will be underweight globally.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-21T11:07:57.000Z","2015-12-21T11:07:57.000Z","2046-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Air pollution, pesticides, and/or EMF will be found responsible for the apparent rise in neurological diseases among the elderly",15,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel","Too many other possible explanations: diagnostic changes, other chemicals (e.g. plastics), food additives, etc. Also, EMF makes no sense whatsoever as an explanation. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-16T18:54:49.000Z","2015-08-16T17:15:34.000Z","2065-01-02T11:00:00.000Z"
"Air pollution, pesticides, and/or EMF will be found responsible for the apparent rise in neurological diseases among the elderly",20,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-16T17:15:34.000Z","2015-08-16T17:15:34.000Z","2065-01-02T11:00:00.000Z"
"Dow is above 20,000 on 2021/1/1",5,,"Gwern","Zvi",,,"economics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-12T00:00:00.000Z","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Dow is above 20,000 on 2021/1/1",30,,"Zvi","Zvi","Predictor notes: ""I don’t think a 50% chance for the 25-30k range is reasonable. Dow was flirting with 50k before. In the 50% of scenarios where Trump wins re-election (presumably good for stocks) we also presumably have good Covid-19 situations most of the time (also good for stocks) and large cap stocks have overperformed throughout. There’s therefore a good chance of Dow 30,000 and a net gain on the year. Buy that to 30%. By contrast, what’s the chance it’s higher than today (it’s close to 25k now)? I’m going to say more like 60%. This rally seems suspicious, but the downside risk is bigger than the upside potential, so things are still probably a favorite to be net positive. There’s just a lot of variance. The more interesting question is Dow 20,000 or Dow 15,000, which I’m going to give maybe 30% and 10% to respectively?""",,"economics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Dow is above 15,000 on 2021/1/1",5,,"Gwern","Zvi","Exact prediction: ""<5%""",,"economics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-03-03T00:00:00.000Z","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Dow is above 15,000 on 2021/1/1",10,,"Zvi","Zvi","Predictor notes: ""I don’t think a 50% chance for the 25-30k range is reasonable. Dow was flirting with 50k before. In the 50% of scenarios where Trump wins re-election (presumably good for stocks) we also presumably have good Covid-19 situations most of the time (also good for stocks) and large cap stocks have overperformed throughout. There’s therefore a good chance of Dow 30,000 and a net gain on the year. Buy that to 30%. By contrast, what’s the chance it’s higher than today (it’s close to 25k now)? I’m going to say more like 60%. This rally seems suspicious, but the downside risk is bigger than the upside potential, so things are still probably a favorite to be net positive. There’s just a lot of variance. The more interesting question is Dow 20,000 or Dow 15,000, which I’m going to give maybe 30% and 10% to respectively?""",,"economics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"China to win at least one medal in weightlifting",96,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-17T09:39:11.613Z","2019-07-17T09:39:11.610Z","2020-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"China to win at least one medal in weightlifting",95,,"pranomostro","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-17T19:48:32.386Z","2019-07-17T09:39:11.610Z","2020-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"China to win at least one medal in weightlifting",97,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-18T05:45:07.215Z","2019-07-17T09:39:11.610Z","2020-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"COVID, US - A Carnival Cruise Lines cruise departs from the continental U.S on or before the 15th of January, 2021.",15,,"NickN","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-17T04:25:25.559Z","2020-07-26T02:49:04.620Z","2021-01-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"COVID, US - A Carnival Cruise Lines cruise departs from the continental U.S on or before the 15th of January, 2021.",35,,"jbeshir","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-26T02:49:04.624Z","2020-07-26T02:49:04.620Z","2021-01-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Children born with symptoms enough to be diagnosed as ADHD will rise as result of a rise in its treatment with stimulant medications. ",96,,"ShadyPharmacist","ShadyPharmacist",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-15T06:22:09.000Z","2012-04-15T06:22:09.000Z","2016-03-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"Children born with symptoms enough to be diagnosed as ADHD will rise as result of a rise in its treatment with stimulant medications. ",47,,"themusicgod1","ShadyPharmacist",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T00:38:50.000Z","2012-04-15T06:22:09.000Z","2016-03-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least four GiveWell staff members with inputs in our cost-effectiveness model change their moral weights for either valuing health vs. income or age-weighting by at least 25%, and they attribute that change to IDinsight's beneficiary preferences survey",35,,"Vipul Naik","Vipul Naik",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-06-23T22:47:24.368Z","2019-06-23T22:47:24.354Z","2021-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least four GiveWell staff members with inputs in our cost-effectiveness model change their moral weights for either valuing health vs. income or age-weighting by at least 25%, and they attribute that change to IDinsight's beneficiary preferences survey",20,,"pranomostro","Vipul Naik",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-06-24T21:04:57.294Z","2019-06-23T22:47:24.354Z","2021-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Felix Sater testifies publicly before Congress before November 2020",15,,"pranomostro","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-06-04T19:28:46.338Z","2019-06-02T05:01:03.780Z","2020-11-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Felix Sater testifies publicly before Congress before November 2020",25,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-06-02T05:01:03.782Z","2019-06-02T05:01:03.780Z","2020-11-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Felix Sater testifies publicly before Congress before November 2020",26,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum","He's testifying privately tomorrow. https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1148353598885105664",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-09T07:47:46.686Z","2019-06-02T05:01:03.780Z","2020-11-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Felix Sater testifies publicly before Congress before November 2020",1,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-14T06:28:10.289Z","2019-06-02T05:01:03.780Z","2020-11-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Felix Sater testifies publicly before Congress before November 2020",5,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-11T11:35:24.876Z","2019-06-02T05:01:03.780Z","2020-11-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 10 people predict on PhilPapers predictions in November?",90,,"Andreas S","Amanda N","","","users-Nov","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-14T00:31:11.742Z","2020-11-14T00:30:20.321Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 10 people predict on PhilPapers predictions in November?",55,,"Amanda N","Amanda N","","","users-Nov","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-14T00:33:18.154Z","2020-11-14T00:30:20.321Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 10 people predict on PhilPapers predictions in November?",80,,"Andreas S","Amanda N","","","users-Nov","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-14T00:34:19.459Z","2020-11-14T00:30:20.321Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"I will sign up for cryonics before 2020.",47,,"themusicgod1","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T00:22:57.000Z","2012-02-06T11:56:17.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will sign up for cryonics before 2020.",20,,"Jayson Virissimo","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-02-06T11:56:17.000Z","2012-02-06T11:56:17.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Yoshimoto Banana will win a Nobel Prize for Literature.",1,,"gwern","Anubhav","One does not simply walk into Nobel! it does help she's a published author who has won some awards",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-07T19:29:25.000Z","2012-01-07T16:12:58.000Z","2046-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"Yoshimoto Banana will win a Nobel Prize for Literature.",0,,"Anubhav","Anubhav",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-07T16:12:58.000Z","2012-01-07T16:12:58.000Z","2046-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"Tesla RoboTaxi project will fail / be discontinued by 2 May 2022",0,,"separo","separo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-19T09:47:19.372Z","2019-05-19T09:47:19.358Z","2022-05-02T22:00:00.000Z"
"Tesla RoboTaxi project will fail / be discontinued by 2 May 2022",30,,"pranomostro","separo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-24T15:27:25.665Z","2019-05-19T09:47:19.358Z","2022-05-02T22:00:00.000Z"
"The person who tried to interfere with Flynn's testimony was Derek Harvey",55,,"pranomostro","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-24T15:27:22.320Z","2019-05-17T06:40:40.575Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The person who tried to interfere with Flynn's testimony was Derek Harvey",60,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-20T19:32:58.863Z","2019-05-17T06:40:40.575Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The person who tried to interfere with Flynn's testimony was Derek Harvey",70,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-17T06:40:40.586Z","2019-05-17T06:40:40.575Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I finish my PhD (wrote thesis, passed viva)",90,,"kjaques","sam_jaques","If Sam says it's 90% that he'll do it, it's 90%!",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-03T15:14:17.527Z","2020-08-01T08:54:31.837Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I finish my PhD (wrote thesis, passed viva)",90,,"sam_jaques","sam_jaques",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-01T08:54:31.842Z","2020-08-01T08:54:31.837Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030 child malnutrition(underweight) in Bharat will fall to 7.4%.",62,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-16T17:55:23.000Z","2015-12-16T06:57:51.000Z","2030-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030 child malnutrition(underweight) in Bharat will fall to 7.4%.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-16T06:57:51.000Z","2015-12-16T06:57:51.000Z","2030-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will lack living funds for at least one month next year.",30,,"EloiseRosen","memoriesofbutter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-17T01:07:21.000Z","2015-10-16T20:33:04.000Z","2016-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will lack living funds for at least one month next year.",40,,"memoriesofbutter","memoriesofbutter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-16T20:33:04.000Z","2015-10-16T20:33:04.000Z","2016-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"New Glenn to launch by end of 2021.",70,,"chemotaxis101","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-07T19:06:33.137Z","2020-08-14T13:38:46.238Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"New Glenn to launch by end of 2021.",76,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-14T13:38:46.244Z","2020-08-14T13:38:46.238Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will get an 1800+ upon retaking the SAT.",55,,"JoshuaZ","memoriesofbutter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-16T20:31:45.000Z","2015-10-16T20:30:19.000Z","2016-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will get an 1800+ upon retaking the SAT.",65,,"memoriesofbutter","memoriesofbutter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-16T20:30:19.000Z","2015-10-16T20:30:19.000Z","2016-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Stephanie Winston Wolkoff indicted before 2024",22,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-06-01T09:05:39.719Z","2019-05-07T17:00:31.415Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Stephanie Winston Wolkoff indicted before 2024",5,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-04T18:05:43.083Z","2019-05-07T17:00:31.415Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Stephanie Winston Wolkoff indicted before 2024",7,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-17T08:14:43.701Z","2019-05-07T17:00:31.415Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Stephanie Winston Wolkoff indicted before 2024",15,,"pranomostro","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-13T20:03:28.677Z","2019-05-07T17:00:31.415Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Stephanie Winston Wolkoff indicted before 2024",28,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-07T17:00:31.450Z","2019-05-07T17:00:31.415Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Erik Prince runs for Senate in 2020",12,,"pranomostro","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-06T20:10:39.748Z","2019-05-05T08:04:39.035Z","2020-11-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Erik Prince runs for Senate in 2020",19,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-05T08:04:39.047Z","2019-05-05T08:04:39.035Z","2020-11-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Erik Prince runs for Senate in 2020",13,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-06-26T07:34:45.956Z","2019-05-05T08:04:39.035Z","2020-11-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Erik Prince runs for Senate in 2020",6,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-04T18:02:35.014Z","2019-05-05T08:04:39.035Z","2020-11-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Erik Prince runs for Senate in 2020",0,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-17T08:14:19.067Z","2019-05-05T08:04:39.035Z","2020-11-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Gwern is still living with his relatives.",75,,"pranomostro","deleteyourbrain","Counter: https://www.gwern.net/Blackmail#february: ""Your phone number, or really your parents’ phone number, is []. Their/your address is known, suffice it to say you’re about 60 miles away from [].""",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-06-07T15:51:23.269Z","2019-04-28T06:05:26.863Z","2025-04-29T06:25:00.000Z"
"Gwern is still living with his relatives.",66,,"deleteyourbrain","deleteyourbrain",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-28T06:05:26.869Z","2019-04-28T06:05:26.863Z","2025-04-29T06:25:00.000Z"
"Gwern is still living with his relatives.",80,,"pranomostro","deleteyourbrain","He mentions his relatives quite often, for example here: https://www.gwern.net/Notes#cicadas

""My sister was napping and gratified me with a shriek.""",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-30T21:16:47.059Z","2019-04-28T06:05:26.863Z","2025-04-29T06:25:00.000Z"
"The identity of gwern branwen will be revealed to the public by 2025.",89,,"deleteyourbrain","deleteyourbrain",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-27T20:51:00.719Z","2019-04-27T20:51:00.713Z","2025-04-29T06:25:00.000Z"
"The identity of gwern branwen will be revealed to the public by 2025.",30,,"pranomostro","deleteyourbrain",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-30T21:13:10.173Z","2019-04-27T20:51:00.713Z","2025-04-29T06:25:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the Panama Papers being leaked by a US Govt operation, the primary reason for the leak would be to show ordinary Russians the sheer corruption within the Power Vertical.",85,,"JoshuaZ","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-07T18:53:13.000Z","2016-04-07T18:49:25.000Z","2066-04-07T07:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the Panama Papers being leaked by a US Govt operation, the primary reason for the leak would be to show ordinary Russians the sheer corruption within the Power Vertical.",95,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-07T18:49:25.000Z","2016-04-07T18:49:25.000Z","2066-04-07T07:00:00.000Z"
"S&P500 crashes by more than 5% in a session within 3 months.",80,,"Stephen","abelriboulot",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-11T18:27:01.967Z","2020-08-04T14:06:40.874Z","2020-11-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"S&P500 crashes by more than 5% in a session within 3 months.",60,,"abelriboulot","abelriboulot",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-04T14:06:40.878Z","2020-08-04T14:06:40.874Z","2020-11-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/2006-08-13 is hilarious",6,,"JoshuaZ","wizzwizz4",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-13T13:02:41.520Z","2020-08-10T17:59:05.063Z","2026-08-13T12:00:00.000Z"
"https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/2006-08-13 is hilarious",60,,"wizzwizz4","wizzwizz4",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-10T17:59:05.068Z","2020-08-10T17:59:05.063Z","2026-08-13T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the psych eval being released to the public, it will show that Martin Shkreli has aspergers or is on the autistic spectrum",15,,"themusicgod1","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-21T00:41:34.000Z","2017-09-20T23:43:36.000Z","2027-09-21T09:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on the psych eval being released to the public, it will show that Martin Shkreli has aspergers or is on the autistic spectrum",51,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-20T23:43:36.000Z","2017-09-20T23:43:36.000Z","2027-09-21T09:00:00.000Z"
"After the US election, media coverage and public sentiment regarding Coronavirus will greatly shift towards a view that its not all that bad.",15,,"sty.silver","kenlogan@gmail.com",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-14T16:53:12.055Z","2020-08-12T12:25:12.186Z","2020-12-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"After the US election, media coverage and public sentiment regarding Coronavirus will greatly shift towards a view that its not all that bad.",75,,"kenlogan@gmail.com","kenlogan@gmail.com",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-12T12:25:12.194Z","2020-08-12T12:25:12.186Z","2020-12-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"Planet Nine will turn out to actually exist",81,,"themusicgod1","artir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-26T00:24:49.000Z","2016-03-24T23:02:20.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Planet Nine will turn out to actually exist",75,,"artir","artir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-24T23:02:20.000Z","2016-03-24T23:02:20.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Planet Nine will turn out to actually exist",65,,"artir","artir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-19T10:25:46.000Z","2016-03-24T23:02:20.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Planet Nine will turn out to actually exist",77,,"artir","artir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-27T17:50:21.000Z","2016-03-24T23:02:20.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on Martin Shkreli's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers",49,,"themusicgod1","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-21T00:42:24.000Z","2017-09-20T23:37:04.000Z","2067-09-21T09:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on Martin Shkreli's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers",95,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-20T23:37:04.000Z","2017-09-20T23:37:04.000Z","2067-09-21T09:00:00.000Z"
"Existential catastrophe from “‘naturally’ arising pandemics” by 2120",0.01,,"Toby Ord","Toby Ord","All core predictions from The Precipice are intended as magnitudal estimates and not explicit guides.",,"biorisk,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2120-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Existential catastrophe from “‘naturally’ arising pandemics” by 2120",0.01,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Toby Ord","",,"biorisk,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-19T08:58:29.158Z","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2120-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"[Australian Politics] The Australian Labor Party will win the next Federal Election ",80,,"Jeefy01","Jeefy01",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-06-12T01:58:20.141Z","2019-06-12T01:58:20.138Z","2022-05-30T22:00:00.000Z"
"[Australian Politics] The Australian Labor Party will win the next Federal Election ",70,,"pranomostro","Jeefy01",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-06-12T17:00:39.712Z","2019-06-12T01:58:20.138Z","2022-05-30T22:00:00.000Z"
"The IUCN will report >=9000 critically endangered species as of march 1 2025 (currently ~6800)",40,,"NickN","finback",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-21T16:27:04.383Z","2020-08-21T15:49:32.794Z","2025-03-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"The IUCN will report >=9000 critically endangered species as of march 1 2025 (currently ~6800)",27,,"finback","finback",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-21T15:49:32.798Z","2020-08-21T15:49:32.794Z","2025-03-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: the fourth wall will be broken by a character",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-06T18:00:11.000Z","2012-08-29T19:30:38.000Z","2018-01-01T20:16:27.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: the fourth wall will be broken by a character",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-29T19:30:38.000Z","2012-08-29T19:30:38.000Z","2018-01-01T20:16:27.000Z"
"Within 20 years the old river control structure will be destroyed, or fail* for reasons other than intentional decommissioning by the us government or its replacement. *The structure will be considered failed if for a month an average of 50% or greater la",50,,"themusicgod1","beo_shaffer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T12:42:10.000Z","2012-08-29T04:09:18.000Z","2032-08-29T04:09:18.000Z"
"Within 20 years the old river control structure will be destroyed, or fail* for reasons other than intentional decommissioning by the us government or its replacement. *The structure will be considered failed if for a month an average of 50% or greater la",9,,"beo_shaffer","beo_shaffer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-29T04:09:18.000Z","2012-08-29T04:09:18.000Z","2032-08-29T04:09:18.000Z"
"Within 20 years the old river control structure will be intentionally disbanded by the US government or its successor and not replaced in any way, allowing the Mississippi to change course.",50,,"themusicgod1","beo_shaffer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T12:41:33.000Z","2012-08-29T03:42:56.000Z","2032-08-29T03:42:56.000Z"
"Within 20 years the old river control structure will be intentionally disbanded by the US government or its successor and not replaced in any way, allowing the Mississippi to change course.",1,,"beo_shaffer","beo_shaffer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-29T03:42:56.000Z","2012-08-29T03:42:56.000Z","2032-08-29T03:42:56.000Z"
"BRIC will rank in the top 5 of military spenders by 2030. 
Zhongguo 2,Bharat   3,Rossiya  4,Brasil  5

This in USD at current prices. Data source is Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-10T11:23:36.000Z","2015-09-10T11:23:36.000Z","2031-01-01T10:00:00.000Z"
"BRIC will rank in the top 5 of military spenders by 2030. 
Zhongguo 2,Bharat   3,Rossiya  4,Brasil  5

This in USD at current prices. Data source is Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.",55,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-10T12:12:57.000Z","2015-09-10T11:23:36.000Z","2031-01-01T10:00:00.000Z"
"“That by 2024 ""artificial"" life emerging somewhere out of the soup of human technology will be given a Latin taxonomic name by biologists and others and declared viable for study.”",5,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:22:07.906Z","2010-07-30T05:28:45.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"“That by 2024 ""artificial"" life emerging somewhere out of the soup of human technology will be given a Latin taxonomic name by biologists and others and declared viable for study.”",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T05:28:45.000Z","2010-07-30T05:28:45.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Dark Matter and Dark Energy are not discovered within the next four years",80,,"Ragnarok_Reverted","Ragnarok_Reverted",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-30T16:26:00.644Z","2020-08-30T16:26:00.640Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Dark Matter and Dark Energy are not discovered within the next four years",80,,"NickN","Ragnarok_Reverted",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-30T17:57:23.511Z","2020-08-30T16:26:00.640Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2022, child malnutrition(underweight) in Bharat will fall to 18.4%. ",72,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-16T17:49:11.000Z","2015-12-16T06:56:40.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2022, child malnutrition(underweight) in Bharat will fall to 18.4%. ",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-16T06:56:40.000Z","2015-12-16T06:56:40.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2022, child malnutrition(underweight) in Bharat will fall to 18.4%. ",50,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar","underweight % in 2014-15 according to Family Health Survey is 34%. Although accelerated progress is possible, odds look grim for my prediction now.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-21T10:13:12.000Z","2015-12-16T06:56:40.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Malnutrition trends in Bharat:By 2030 Wasting among under 3 children will be at 0%.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-16T06:42:33.000Z","2015-12-16T06:42:33.000Z","2030-12-25T23:00:00.000Z"
"Malnutrition trends in Bharat:By 2030 Wasting among under 3 children will be at 0%.",84,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-16T17:49:31.000Z","2015-12-16T06:42:33.000Z","2030-12-25T23:00:00.000Z"
"Bill Gates won't develop an affordable water-less toilet for the third world by 2020",55,,"JoshuaZ","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-21T15:25:26.000Z","2012-08-15T20:10:48.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bill Gates won't develop an affordable water-less toilet for the third world by 2020",65,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-15T20:10:48.000Z","2012-08-15T20:10:48.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Chinese military vessel docks at Thitu by 2024",40,,"pranomostro","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-13T21:27:57.349Z","2019-04-12T07:06:37.966Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A Chinese military vessel docks at Thitu by 2024",24,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-12T07:06:37.969Z","2019-04-12T07:06:37.966Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"January 1st, 2025",70,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T02:53:24.715Z","2019-03-15T02:53:24.711Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"January 1st, 2025",83,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-17T16:17:22.726Z","2019-03-15T02:53:24.711Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"January 1st, 2025",80,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T16:16:09.892Z","2019-03-15T02:53:24.711Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The New Development Bank will make more loans in billions of dollars per year, than the IMF by 2022.",81,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-22T20:44:26.000Z","2015-12-15T09:30:19.000Z","2022-12-16T07:22:00.000Z"
"The New Development Bank will make more loans in billions of dollars per year, than the IMF by 2022.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-15T09:30:19.000Z","2015-12-15T09:30:19.000Z","2022-12-16T07:22:00.000Z"
"January 1st, 2024",86,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-17T16:17:14.918Z","2019-03-15T02:53:24.690Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"January 1st, 2024",80,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T16:16:04.543Z","2019-03-15T02:53:24.690Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"January 1st, 2024",75,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T02:53:24.694Z","2019-03-15T02:53:24.690Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Existential catastrophe from “engineered pandemics” by 2120",3,,"Toby Ord","Toby Ord","All core predictions from The Precipice are intended as magnitudal estimates and not explicit guides.",,"biorisk,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2120-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Existential catastrophe from “engineered pandemics” by 2120",3,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Toby Ord","",,"biorisk,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-19T08:58:41.178Z","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2120-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Climate change refugees will polarise America and lead to mass protests followed by a proto fascist government by 2050",1,,"najdorf","product",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-04T13:21:51.021Z","2020-09-01T12:00:01.055Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Climate change refugees will polarise America and lead to mass protests followed by a proto fascist government by 2050",60,,"product","product","I think this probably will happen so dumb of me to put less than 50%",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-01T12:07:30.931Z","2020-09-01T12:00:01.055Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Climate change refugees will polarise America and lead to mass protests followed by a proto fascist government by 2050",40,,"product","product",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-01T12:00:01.058Z","2020-09-01T12:00:01.055Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US bicycle mode share will be over 1% in the 2030 Census",20,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-19T17:30:03.000Z","2015-07-19T17:30:03.000Z","2032-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"US bicycle mode share will be over 1% in the 2030 Census",35,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-19T22:34:11.000Z","2015-07-19T17:30:03.000Z","2032-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"CNC Mills designed specifically for the manufacture of ghost guns (such as ghost gunner which is designed for easy AR-15 manufacturing) will be illegal (or effectively banned) in the U.S. by 2020 ",55,,"prophetofprofit","prophetofprofit",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-12T23:45:25.000Z","2015-09-12T23:45:25.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"CNC Mills designed specifically for the manufacture of ghost guns (such as ghost gunner which is designed for easy AR-15 manufacturing) will be illegal (or effectively banned) in the U.S. by 2020 ",45,,"JoshuaZ","prophetofprofit",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-13T00:54:30.000Z","2015-09-12T23:45:25.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Consensus will be that electron neutrinos have imaginary mass 2025. ",5,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-27T17:24:03.000Z","2014-12-27T17:24:03.000Z","2025-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Consensus will be that electron neutrinos have imaginary mass 2025. ",1,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Overestimated. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-28T01:33:15.000Z","2014-12-27T17:24:03.000Z","2025-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Consensus will be that electron neutrinos have imaginary mass 2025. ",2,,"kilobug","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-29T13:49:37.000Z","2014-12-27T17:24:03.000Z","2025-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Since 2001, the total number of low-income countries has nearly halved to 34, as 31 graduated to middle-income status. By 2026, another 31 will graduate, leaving only 3 countries in low income status.",52,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-16T20:43:57.000Z","2015-12-15T06:39:11.000Z","2026-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Since 2001, the total number of low-income countries has nearly halved to 34, as 31 graduated to middle-income status. By 2026, another 31 will graduate, leaving only 3 countries in low income status.",72,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar","Updating probability based on clarification that this is intended as a lower bound rather than an exact prediction. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-24T13:14:08.000Z","2015-12-15T06:39:11.000Z","2026-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Since 2001, the total number of low-income countries has nearly halved to 34, as 31 graduated to middle-income status. By 2026, another 31 will graduate, leaving only 3 countries in low income status.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-15T06:39:11.000Z","2015-12-15T06:39:11.000Z","2026-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"January 1st, 2023",89,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-17T16:16:30.670Z","2019-03-15T02:53:24.669Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"January 1st, 2023",85,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T16:15:58.485Z","2019-03-15T02:53:24.669Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"January 1st, 2023",80,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T02:53:24.685Z","2019-03-15T02:53:24.669Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"January 1st, 2022",90,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T16:15:51.598Z","2019-03-15T02:53:24.660Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"January 1st, 2022",92,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-17T16:15:39.797Z","2019-03-15T02:53:24.660Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"January 1st, 2022",85,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T02:53:24.664Z","2019-03-15T02:53:24.660Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Urbit network will never have >50.000 users over the span of a month.",100,,"Baeboo","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-13T01:12:54.738Z","2019-03-12T22:01:09.828Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Urbit network will never have >50.000 users over the span of a month.",98,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-12T22:01:09.843Z","2019-03-12T22:01:09.828Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Hungrybox will not a drop a set in Melee in 2019",99,,"wheat","wheat",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-08T23:29:55.835Z","2019-03-08T23:29:55.822Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Hungrybox will not a drop a set in Melee in 2019",0,,"fairfax","wheat",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-08T23:35:55.367Z","2019-03-08T23:29:55.822Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Air Jordan 1 UNC Off-White X Nike collaboration sneakers will increase in value to at least $1000 in the next 9 months",40,,"pranomostro","prophetofprofit",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-08T10:50:51.556Z","2019-03-07T23:02:48.183Z","2019-12-07T23:02:48.000Z"
"Air Jordan 1 UNC Off-White X Nike collaboration sneakers will increase in value to at least $1000 in the next 9 months",60,,"prophetofprofit","prophetofprofit",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-07T23:02:48.189Z","2019-03-07T23:02:48.183Z","2019-12-07T23:02:48.000Z"
"Fareed Zakaria: US will be #1 in gold medals in 2040",47,,"themusicgod1","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T06:14:34.000Z","2012-08-15T05:43:50.000Z","2040-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Fareed Zakaria: US will be #1 in gold medals in 2040",35,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-15T05:43:50.000Z","2012-08-15T05:43:50.000Z","2040-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Less than 500 of the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II will ever be built"" [Pierre Sprey]",30,,"dusk","dusk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-08-15T13:14:29.000Z","2013-08-15T13:14:29.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Less than 500 of the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II will ever be built"" [Pierre Sprey]",80,,"Michael Dickens","dusk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-07T22:47:49.000Z","2013-08-15T13:14:29.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"If a second civil war starts/continues in the USA, and Republicans and Democrats are opposing belligerents, out of possibly more belligerents, Australia will fight on the side of Republicans.",1,,"Bruno Parga","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T12:47:07.619Z","2020-09-10T04:20:38.883Z","2040-12-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"If a second civil war starts/continues in the USA, and Republicans and Democrats are opposing belligerents, out of possibly more belligerents, Australia will fight on the side of Republicans.",10,,"najdorf","najdorf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-10T04:20:38.887Z","2020-09-10T04:20:38.883Z","2040-12-31T01:00:00.000Z"
"Politics, US - Over 28% of ballots cast in the 2020 presidential election will be mail-in or absentee, including mail-in or absentee ballots dropped off in person.",95,,"unexpectedEOF","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-16T21:14:03.047Z","2020-09-13T00:55:51.937Z","2020-11-06T00:00:00.000Z"
"Politics, US - Over 28% of ballots cast in the 2020 presidential election will be mail-in or absentee, including mail-in or absentee ballots dropped off in person.",75,,"jbeshir","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T00:55:51.942Z","2020-09-13T00:55:51.937Z","2020-11-06T00:00:00.000Z"
"Politics, US - Over 38% of ballots cast in the 2020 presidential election will be mail-in or absentee, including mail-in or absentee ballots dropped off in person.",25,,"jbeshir","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T00:56:18.575Z","2020-09-13T00:56:18.571Z","2020-11-06T00:00:00.000Z"
"Politics, US - Over 38% of ballots cast in the 2020 presidential election will be mail-in or absentee, including mail-in or absentee ballots dropped off in person.",80,,"unexpectedEOF","jbeshir","Something like ~25% of all votes were absentee or mail-in in 2016. I think 2020 will be an election with at least that percentage in non-physical voting.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-16T20:37:11.834Z","2020-09-13T00:56:18.571Z","2020-11-06T00:00:00.000Z"
"Donald Trump Jr. (Donald John Trump Jr.) (born December 31, 1977) has more than five children that he admits paternity of within ten (10) years
",55,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-06T16:13:14.591Z","2019-03-06T16:13:14.584Z","2029-03-06T17:30:00.000Z"
"Donald Trump Jr. (Donald John Trump Jr.) (born December 31, 1977) has more than five children that he admits paternity of within ten (10) years
",40,,"pranomostro","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-07T12:00:00.207Z","2019-03-06T16:13:14.584Z","2029-03-06T17:30:00.000Z"
"US homicide rate to be lower in 2019 than 2018",85,,"pranomostro","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-07T11:44:45.383Z","2019-03-05T04:30:39.579Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US homicide rate to be lower in 2019 than 2018",85,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-05T04:30:39.596Z","2019-03-05T04:30:39.579Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Hbox will win Pound, Smash N' Splash, Shine and The Big House in 2019",67,,"fairfax","wheat",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-01T18:34:38.793Z","2019-03-01T18:30:57.253Z","2019-10-14T12:00:00.000Z"
"Hbox will win Pound, Smash N' Splash, Shine and The Big House in 2019",75,,"wheat","wheat",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-01T18:30:57.259Z","2019-03-01T18:30:57.253Z","2019-10-14T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one country will make producing animal meat products within its borders illegal by 2075",10,,"fiftytwo","dvolk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-03T04:18:09.000Z","2015-01-02T14:54:40.000Z","2075-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one country will make producing animal meat products within its borders illegal by 2075",65,,"dvolk","dvolk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-02T14:54:40.000Z","2015-01-02T14:54:40.000Z","2075-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"If I repeat IGE, and other allergy tests I took previously at EMC, a week after finishing the Chinese medicine I got, the classification of my reaction to something won't change. I will still need to take antihistamine 1-2 times a day.",90,,"11kilobytes","11kilobytes",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-12T18:02:15.000Z","2015-01-12T18:02:15.000Z","2015-02-13T06:00:00.000Z"
"If I repeat IGE, and other allergy tests I took previously at EMC, a week after finishing the Chinese medicine I got, the classification of my reaction to something won't change. I will still need to take antihistamine 1-2 times a day.",98,,"PineyBranch","11kilobytes","IgE will not come down in just one week, no matter what you do. Get allergy shots, unless the allergy is a food. Shots work well on 85 percent of patients.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-04T02:07:10.000Z","2015-01-12T18:02:15.000Z","2015-02-13T06:00:00.000Z"
"“Major online internet useage research firms will record that over 3 billion people in 2025 managed their incoming and outgoing digital information using a graphical user interface based on Quadrant Theory - as described in Marshall McLuhan's ""Tetrad"" mod",2,,"pranomostro","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-14T18:28:18.722Z","2010-07-30T05:49:40.000Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Major online internet useage research firms will record that over 3 billion people in 2025 managed their incoming and outgoing digital information using a graphical user interface based on Quadrant Theory - as described in Marshall McLuhan's ""Tetrad"" mod",5,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-07-30T05:49:40.000Z","2010-07-30T05:49:40.000Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"

By 2030, EU will have 7% of the estimated 300 million 25-34 yr old graduates

",50,,"EloiseRosen","Raahul_Kumar","Thanks",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-14T00:26:10.000Z","2015-12-10T11:49:02.000Z","2030-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"

By 2030, EU will have 7% of the estimated 300 million 25-34 yr old graduates

",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-10T11:49:02.000Z","2015-12-10T11:49:02.000Z","2030-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Gaydar] Isaac Hempstead-Wright comes out as queer",15,,"themusicgod1","two2thehead","base rate + a little extra for being on TV",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-08T02:49:30.000Z","2017-09-07T23:24:07.000Z","2067-09-08T09:00:00.000Z"
"[Gaydar] Isaac Hempstead-Wright comes out as queer",85,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-07T23:24:07.000Z","2017-09-07T23:24:07.000Z","2067-09-08T09:00:00.000Z"
"Palau, Panama, Argentina, Kazakhstan, Lebanon, will be high income countries by 2020.",85,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-09T14:32:05.000Z","2016-03-09T14:32:05.000Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Palau, Panama, Argentina, Kazakhstan, Lebanon, will be high income countries by 2020.",70,,"Waring","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-12T15:09:15.000Z","2016-03-09T14:32:05.000Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"US military use of torture, extrajudicial imprisonment and killing, and mass surveillance all increased by US midterms.",47,,"themusicgod1","Temeraire",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-28T22:57:23.000Z","2017-01-28T04:13:38.000Z","2019-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US military use of torture, extrajudicial imprisonment and killing, and mass surveillance all increased by US midterms.",32,,"Temeraire","Temeraire",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-28T04:13:38.000Z","2017-01-28T04:13:38.000Z","2019-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ana is misleading to Aaron about the 'marriage' name in some significant way - e.g. it maybe is not symmetric. ",21,,"Temeraire","Temeraire","We saw a chapter from Ana's perspective and she did not seem evil",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-27T23:54:45.000Z","2016-03-07T04:40:28.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ana is misleading to Aaron about the 'marriage' name in some significant way - e.g. it maybe is not symmetric. ",40,,"PlacidPlatypus","Temeraire",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-07T15:35:21.000Z","2016-03-07T04:40:28.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ana is misleading to Aaron about the 'marriage' name in some significant way - e.g. it maybe is not symmetric. ",60,,"Temeraire","Temeraire",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-07T04:40:28.000Z","2016-03-07T04:40:28.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"UNSONG was created to control the spread of names (in the same way we might want to restrict anthrax or AI research)",18,,"Temeraire","Temeraire",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-27T23:55:52.000Z","2016-03-07T04:27:51.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"UNSONG was created to control the spread of names (in the same way we might want to restrict anthrax or AI research)",44,,"JoshuaZ","Temeraire",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-07T11:56:05.000Z","2016-03-07T04:27:51.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"UNSONG was created to control the spread of names (in the same way we might want to restrict anthrax or AI research)",30,,"Temeraire","Temeraire",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-07T04:27:51.000Z","2016-03-07T04:27:51.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Donald Trump successfully appoints >1 Supreme Court Justice who support increasing abortion restrictions, repealing same-sex marriage, and enforcing state-led voter suppression [sic] before US midterms",20,,"themusicgod1","Temeraire",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-28T22:57:58.000Z","2017-01-28T04:11:06.000Z","2019-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Donald Trump successfully appoints >1 Supreme Court Justice who support increasing abortion restrictions, repealing same-sex marriage, and enforcing state-led voter suppression [sic] before US midterms",16,,"Temeraire","Temeraire",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-28T04:11:06.000Z","2017-01-28T04:11:06.000Z","2019-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Donald Trump successfully appoints >1 Supreme Court Justice who support increasing abortion restrictions, repealing same-sex marriage, and enforcing state-led voter suppression [sic] before US midterms",10,,"Temeraire","Temeraire",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-01-09T04:11:43.000Z","2017-01-28T04:11:06.000Z","2019-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, USA will have 8% of the estimated 300 million 25-34 yr old graduates",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-10T11:48:37.000Z","2015-12-10T11:48:37.000Z","2030-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, USA will have 8% of the estimated 300 million 25-34 yr old graduates",78,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-25T13:34:36.000Z","2015-12-10T11:48:37.000Z","2030-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, Bharat will have 23% of the estimated 300 million 25-34 yr old graduates.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-10T11:48:00.000Z","2015-12-10T11:48:00.000Z","2030-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, Bharat will have 23% of the estimated 300 million 25-34 yr old graduates.",81,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-25T13:34:55.000Z","2015-12-10T11:48:00.000Z","2030-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"BRIICS countries will produce 75% global STEM graduates by 2030. ",72,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-10T11:46:47.000Z","2015-12-10T11:23:07.000Z","2030-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"BRIICS countries will produce 75% global STEM graduates by 2030. ",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-10T11:23:07.000Z","2015-12-10T11:23:07.000Z","2030-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Total LessWrong Google Analytics Sessions for 2017 will be higher than for 2016",52,,"Vipul Naik","Issa Rice",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-26T04:45:07.000Z","2017-01-26T03:43:47.000Z","2018-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Total LessWrong Google Analytics Sessions for 2017 will be higher than for 2016",70,,"Issa Rice","Issa Rice",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-26T03:43:47.000Z","2017-01-26T03:43:47.000Z","2018-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Worldwide capacity of rooftop, building-integrated and local PV soar from 104GW in 2014 to nearly 1.8TW in 2040, a 17-fold increase. ",84,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-06T14:30:34.000Z","2016-03-06T06:11:48.000Z","2040-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Worldwide capacity of rooftop, building-integrated and local PV soar from 104GW in 2014 to nearly 1.8TW in 2040, a 17-fold increase. ",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-06T06:11:48.000Z","2016-03-06T06:11:48.000Z","2040-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Seb Henbest, Bloomberg New Energy Finance: “The CO² content of the atmosphere is on course to exceed 450 parts per million by 2035"". The world will fail to keep temperature rise below  2 °C. ",51,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-06T14:29:01.000Z","2016-03-06T06:07:35.000Z","2035-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Seb Henbest, Bloomberg New Energy Finance: “The CO² content of the atmosphere is on course to exceed 450 parts per million by 2035"". The world will fail to keep temperature rise below  2 °C. ",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-06T06:07:35.000Z","2016-03-06T06:07:35.000Z","2035-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ontario leaves cap & trade system",45,,"atomicspaceman","themusicgod1","What leads you to think this is likely? Europe has used a cap & trade system for a while now, and it appears similarly useful for meeting emissions reduction goals to a tax structure.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-01T13:35:05.000Z","2017-01-25T23:12:26.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ontario leaves cap & trade system",52,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-25T23:12:26.000Z","2017-01-25T23:12:26.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Politics, UK - Brexit transition period ends 31st of December 2020 with no deal or extension.",45,,"jbeshir","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-04T14:49:40.982Z","2020-09-27T03:18:39.206Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Politics, UK - Brexit transition period ends 31st of December 2020 with no deal or extension.",25,,"Baeboo","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-28T22:18:35.852Z","2020-09-27T03:18:39.206Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Politics, UK - Brexit transition period ends 31st of December 2020 with no deal or extension.",60,,"jbeshir","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-27T03:18:39.212Z","2020-09-27T03:18:39.206Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Saudi Arabia misses key financial targets",80,,"Coagulopath","Coagulopath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-13T00:18:03.865Z","2019-02-13T00:18:03.860Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Saudi Arabia misses key financial targets",55,,"pranomostro","Coagulopath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-14T19:58:27.522Z","2019-02-13T00:18:03.860Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Supreme Court strikes down Texas abortion law in 5-3 split. ",65,,"PipFoweraker","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-21T01:49:33.000Z","2016-03-05T16:30:39.000Z","2017-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Supreme Court strikes down Texas abortion law in 5-3 split. ",30,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-05T16:30:39.000Z","2016-03-05T16:30:39.000Z","2017-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will have read 100 books",40,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Coagulopath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-10T10:43:50.328Z","2019-02-13T00:13:23.136Z","2020-12-21T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will have read 100 books",35,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Coagulopath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-11T03:39:19.789Z","2019-02-13T00:13:23.136Z","2020-12-21T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will have read 100 books",70,,"Coagulopath","Coagulopath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-13T00:13:23.141Z","2019-02-13T00:13:23.136Z","2020-12-21T12:00:00.000Z"
"Despite his best efforts, Matt will not still be alive",92,,"themusicgod1","Glenn",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-26T16:24:44.000Z","2008-09-24T12:06:51.000Z","2108-09-24T12:06:51.000Z"
"Despite his best efforts, Matt will not still be alive",100,,"Glenn","Glenn",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2008-09-24T12:06:51.000Z","2008-09-24T12:06:51.000Z","2108-09-24T12:06:51.000Z"
"Supreme Court strikes down Texas abortion law in 6-2 split. ",10,,"PipFoweraker","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-21T01:49:39.000Z","2016-03-05T16:30:04.000Z","2017-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Supreme Court strikes down Texas abortion law in 6-2 split. ",20,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-05T16:30:04.000Z","2016-03-05T16:30:04.000Z","2017-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Penn State won't put back up Joe Paterno's statue for the next 15 years.",50,,"gwern","RandomThinker","the fans are faithful, and the sting of the lucrative final contract will be fading from the board of trustees",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-07-24T16:48:42.000Z","2012-07-23T21:08:19.000Z","2027-07-23T12:00:00.000Z"
"Penn State won't put back up Joe Paterno's statue for the next 15 years.",65,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-07-23T21:08:19.000Z","2012-07-23T21:08:19.000Z","2027-07-23T12:00:00.000Z"
"US govt won't file criminal charges against a C-level executive of an American bank in America for the next 10 years",83,,"themusicgod1","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T01:56:14.000Z","2012-07-23T21:03:16.000Z","2022-07-23T12:00:00.000Z"
"US govt won't file criminal charges against a C-level executive of an American bank in America for the next 10 years",65,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-07-23T21:03:16.000Z","2012-07-23T21:03:16.000Z","2022-07-23T12:00:00.000Z"
"By April 7th, 2028, there will be a time when 5 million or more Americans will be able to order pizza for delivery by drone to their home.",35,,"pranomostro","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-15T16:26:05.239Z","2018-04-07T19:57:31.000Z","2028-04-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"By April 7th, 2028, there will be a time when 5 million or more Americans will be able to order pizza for delivery by drone to their home.",7,,"WilliamKiely","WilliamKiely",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-07T19:57:31.000Z","2018-04-07T19:57:31.000Z","2028-04-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"Greater than 25% of US utility companies that exist as of 2015 will file for bankruptcy by 2035",10,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-16T17:21:37.000Z","2015-08-16T17:21:37.000Z","2035-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Greater than 25% of US utility companies that exist as of 2015 will file for bankruptcy by 2035",15,,"JoshuaZ","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-16T17:46:48.000Z","2015-08-16T17:21:37.000Z","2035-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Malnutrition trends in Bharat:By 2022 Wasting will be at 8.2% among under 3 children.
",52,,"JoshuaZ","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-16T17:55:15.000Z","2015-12-16T06:41:34.000Z","2022-12-25T23:00:00.000Z"
"Malnutrition trends in Bharat:By 2022 Wasting will be at 8.2% among under 3 children.
",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-16T06:41:34.000Z","2015-12-16T06:41:34.000Z","2022-12-25T23:00:00.000Z"
"Blue Origin's New Shepard to carry humans past Karman line (100km altitude) by April 15, 2022",45,,"chemotaxis101","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-26T18:20:31.289Z","2020-10-13T18:59:25.781Z","2022-04-15T22:00:00.000Z"
"Blue Origin's New Shepard to carry humans past Karman line (100km altitude) by April 15, 2022",38,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-13T18:59:25.786Z","2020-10-13T18:59:25.781Z","2022-04-15T22:00:00.000Z"
"China NOT to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before 2026",75,,"chemotaxis101","niconiconi",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-26T18:19:07.061Z","2020-10-16T14:59:44.851Z","2026-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"China NOT to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before 2026",70,,"niconiconi","niconiconi","Update: changed the prediction from positive (to conduct) to negative (not to conduct), so it can be judged ""correct"" if I'm right... ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-24T04:31:45.187Z","2020-10-16T14:59:44.851Z","2026-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"China NOT to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before 2026",30,,"niconiconi","niconiconi",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-16T14:59:44.855Z","2020-10-16T14:59:44.851Z","2026-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"MDMA to be more popular in 2025 than 2015",60,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T11:07:39.000Z","2015-07-13T11:07:39.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"MDMA to be more popular in 2025 than 2015",50,,"NathanMcKnight","InquilineKea","How do we define popularity?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-03T22:09:55.000Z","2015-07-13T11:07:39.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I subjectively consider the 2020 election to have turned into a clusterfuck",30,,"PlacidPlatypus","PlacidPlatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-20T16:49:23.394Z","2020-10-20T16:49:23.389Z","2020-12-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"I subjectively consider the 2020 election to have turned into a clusterfuck",40,,"sty.silver","PlacidPlatypus","Hard to say.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-20T19:17:18.182Z","2020-10-20T16:49:23.389Z","2020-12-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will still be using Prediction Book in 2 year's time.",70,,"Athrithalix","Athrithalix",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-03-29T14:53:52.000Z","2018-03-29T14:53:52.000Z","2020-03-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will still be using Prediction Book in 2 year's time.",90,,"stepan","Athrithalix",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-24T17:41:05.792Z","2018-03-29T14:53:52.000Z","2020-03-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"Apple will lose all its *NIX developer goodwill and become the equivalent of Microsoft -- hated but a necessary evil.",50,,"scav","kyst","In 10 years?  Microsoft are still evil but hardly necessary even now. How to measure it? Could go either way. Likely if Apple hire a ""Ballmer"" after Jobs departs.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-28T10:16:18.000Z","2011-07-28T05:04:25.000Z","2021-07-28T05:04:25.000Z"
"Apple will lose all its *NIX developer goodwill and become the equivalent of Microsoft -- hated but a necessary evil.",80,,"kyst","kyst",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-07-28T05:04:25.000Z","2011-07-28T05:04:25.000Z","2021-07-28T05:04:25.000Z"
"Harry Dresden will be infected with Nemesis at some point in The Dresden Files series (if the series is completed by Jim Butcher).",60,,"twmccart","twmccart",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-23T14:47:30.000Z","2015-01-23T14:47:30.000Z","2024-06-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Harry Dresden will be infected with Nemesis at some point in The Dresden Files series (if the series is completed by Jim Butcher).",55,,"JoshuaZ","twmccart",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-23T19:06:03.000Z","2015-01-23T14:47:30.000Z","2024-06-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"COVID, UK - Deaths attributed to COVID exceed 500 on some day in November.",85,,"gav","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T03:05:21.970Z","2020-10-31T13:21:11.746Z","2020-12-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"COVID, UK - Deaths attributed to COVID exceed 500 on some day in November.",87,,"jbeshir","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-31T13:21:11.751Z","2020-10-31T13:21:11.746Z","2020-12-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"COVID, UK - Deaths attributed to COVID exceed 1000 for some day in November.",60,,"gav","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-10T03:05:58.086Z","2020-10-31T13:23:37.767Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"COVID, UK - Deaths attributed to COVID exceed 1000 for some day in November.",57,,"jbeshir","jbeshir","Large update from https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54756950 ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-31T13:29:01.627Z","2020-10-31T13:23:37.767Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"COVID, UK - Deaths attributed to COVID exceed 1000 for some day in November.",20,,"jbeshir","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-31T13:23:37.772Z","2020-10-31T13:23:37.767Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Apple will launch an ~4 inch iphone in the next 18 months, that has the same full screen display of the newer models and 5-7nm CPUs",15,,"pranomostro","lettergram","Beware the conjunction.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-09T19:22:18.980Z","2019-01-09T07:50:28.831Z","2020-06-10T08:00:00.000Z"
"Apple will launch an ~4 inch iphone in the next 18 months, that has the same full screen display of the newer models and 5-7nm CPUs",60,,"lettergram","lettergram",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-09T07:50:28.912Z","2019-01-09T07:50:28.831Z","2020-06-10T08:00:00.000Z"
"The Higgs boson discovered at the LHC on 4/7/12 will be found to NOT be a standard model Higgs boson.",70,,"Raahul_Kumar","splorridge","I also think the Higgs model found won't fit into the predicted SM.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-21T05:12:25.000Z","2016-02-19T16:16:54.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Higgs boson discovered at the LHC on 4/7/12 will be found to NOT be a standard model Higgs boson.",60,,"splorridge","splorridge",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-19T16:16:54.000Z","2016-02-19T16:16:54.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Elon Musk will attempt to go to the Moon before the end of his life",90,,"Isaac","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-06-01T02:42:04.000Z","2012-06-01T01:37:42.000Z","2052-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Elon Musk will attempt to go to the Moon before the end of his life",65,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-06-01T01:37:42.000Z","2012-06-01T01:37:42.000Z","2052-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Obamacare will not be substantially cut (i.e. no, >10% spending cut or coverage retraction). ",24,,"themusicgod1","technicalities",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-24T03:02:40.000Z","2017-01-23T22:55:55.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Obamacare will not be substantially cut (i.e. no, >10% spending cut or coverage retraction). ",70,,"technicalities","technicalities",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-23T22:55:55.000Z","2017-01-23T22:55:55.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Total death toll from malaria by year end 2017 will be < 500,000",52,,"themusicgod1","technicalities",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-24T03:27:31.000Z","2017-01-23T22:22:41.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Total death toll from malaria by year end 2017 will be < 500,000",90,,"technicalities","technicalities",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-23T22:22:41.000Z","2017-01-23T22:22:41.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Rex Computing products (including the Neo Chip) to capture at least 1% of the CPU market by 2020 (see http://fortune.com/2015/07/21/rex-computing/?xid=soc_socialflow_facebook_FORTUNE, http://www.rexcomputing.com/)",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-22T18:41:08.000Z","2015-07-22T18:41:08.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Rex Computing products (including the Neo Chip) to capture at least 1% of the CPU market by 2020 (see http://fortune.com/2015/07/21/rex-computing/?xid=soc_socialflow_facebook_FORTUNE, http://www.rexcomputing.com/)",20,,"icosahedronman","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-23T12:55:45.000Z","2015-07-22T18:41:08.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will be using Linux in 20 years",53,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T01:02:35.000Z","2012-06-28T23:59:39.000Z","2032-06-28T23:59:39.000Z"
"I will be using Linux in 20 years",55,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-06-28T23:59:39.000Z","2012-06-28T23:59:39.000Z","2032-06-28T23:59:39.000Z"
"I will be using Emacs in 20 years",50,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T01:02:01.000Z","2012-06-28T23:59:00.000Z","2032-06-28T23:59:00.000Z"
"I will be using Emacs in 20 years",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-06-28T23:59:00.000Z","2012-06-28T23:59:00.000Z","2032-06-28T23:59:00.000Z"
"I will be using Firefox in 20 years",36,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T01:01:35.000Z","2012-06-28T23:58:21.000Z","2032-06-28T23:58:21.000Z"
"I will be using Firefox in 20 years",35,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-06-28T23:58:21.000Z","2012-06-28T23:58:21.000Z","2032-06-28T23:58:21.000Z"
"I will be using Bash in 20 years",47,,"themusicgod1","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T01:00:44.000Z","2012-06-28T23:57:02.000Z","2032-06-28T23:57:02.000Z"
"I will be using Bash in 20 years",35,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-06-28T23:57:02.000Z","2012-06-28T23:57:02.000Z","2032-06-28T23:57:02.000Z"
"Weight below 200 by 2021",50,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,personal","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, not eating meat at home",40,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,personal","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I find at least one new supplement I take or expect to take regularly (x 3 months) by 2021",20,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,personal","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I try one biohacking project per month x at least 5 of the last 6 months of 2020",30,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,personal","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Queen Elizabeth II will still be alive on 2030/1/1.",30,,"Vaniver","Vaniver","Predictor note: ""This requires her to make it to 103; life expectancy for a 93-year old British woman is only 3.64 years, her mother made it to 101, her father to 56, and her sister to 71. It seems unlikely that new medical technology will make a significant difference during that time; basically the only medication I expect to be available in time to do anything useful will be metformin.""",,"LW2020,world events","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"A change of policy to allocate less funding towards existing organisations will make me more excited about donating to the LTFF.",30,,"meerpirat","meerpirat","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T17:06:54.950Z","2020-12-23T17:06:54.941Z","2021-12-22T23:00:00.000Z"
"No armed conflict between Japan and any of its neighbors by 2030.",70,,"Vaniver","Vaniver",,,"LW2020,geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Industrial / financial consolidation will continue instead of reversing, and the 'superstar cities' phenomenon will be stronger in 2030 than 2020.",90,,"Vaniver","Vaniver",,,"LW2020,geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"No proof that P != NP by 2030.",90,,"Matthew Barnett","Matthew Barnett",,,"LW2020,science","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Donald Trump will serve his entire first term as president.",92,,"Matthew Barnett","Matthew Barnett",,,"LW2020,US politics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-21T00:00:00.000Z"
"Donald Trump will not be convicted of high crimes and misdemeanors in his first term as president.",95,,"Matthew Barnett","Matthew Barnett",,,"LW2020,US politics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-21T00:00:00.000Z"
"Robust mouse rejuvenation, defined as a mouse being rejuvenated so that it lives 2500 days, will not have been demonstrated by 2030.",85,,"Matthew Barnett","Matthew Barnett",,,"LW2020,science","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Jeff Bezos will be unseated as the richest person in the world by 2030.",70,,"Matthew Barnett","Matthew Barnett",,,"LW2020,tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"There will be no convincing evidence of contact from extraterrestrials by 2030.",99,,"Matthew Barnett","Matthew Barnett",,,"LW2020,space","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Neither Puerto Rico or DC will be recognized as states by 2030.",80,,"Matthew Barnett","Matthew Barnett",,,"LW2020,US politics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"No pandemic will kill >50 million people by 2030.",93,,"Matthew Barnett","Matthew Barnett",,,"LW2020,health","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"No state will secede from the US by 2030.",95,,"Matthew Barnett","Matthew Barnett",,,"LW2020,politics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The SNIFF trial of nasal insulin for AD will NOT show a statistically significant improvement in CSF Abeta or CSF Abeta/tau ratio over time (i.e., these will NOT be reported as significant by the study investigators).",75,,"Porejide","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-26T03:03:03.000Z","2015-11-26T03:03:03.000Z","2016-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"The SNIFF trial of nasal insulin will show a statistically significant improvement in ADAS-Cog scores OR memory composite OR ADCS-ADL (i.e., this will be reported by the study investigators). ",60,,"Porejide","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-26T02:42:22.000Z","2015-11-26T02:38:27.000Z","2016-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"The SNIFF trial of nasal insulin will show a statistically significant improvement in ADAS-Cog scores OR memory composite OR ADCS-ADL (i.e., this will be reported by the study investigators). ",75,,"Porejide","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-26T02:38:27.000Z","2015-11-26T02:38:27.000Z","2016-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"""China will be 1/3rd desert before the 2030s and running out of water in many places"" - Alex Lightman",55,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-29T19:25:41.000Z","2015-07-29T19:25:41.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cause Prioritization Wiki to have 500 pageviews per day by end of 2016",25,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-02T11:17:18.000Z","2015-09-02T11:17:18.000Z","2017-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"9771039943: ABC ",80,,"Dylan.Kurda","Dylan.Kurda",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-03T21:00:34.000Z","2016-02-03T21:00:34.000Z","2016-02-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"nautil.us to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-15T21:05:18.000Z","2015-07-15T21:05:18.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Rupert Murdoch will still lead Fox News after his 90th birthday",49,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-15T21:32:37.000Z","2015-07-15T21:32:37.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A digital 4K video camera will be available for under US$4000 by the end of 2013.",80,,"dusk","dusk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-24T11:54:54.000Z","2013-01-24T11:54:54.000Z","2015-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will receive an economics PhD within the next 10 years",20,,"Isaac","Isaac",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-09T17:03:39.000Z","2013-05-09T17:03:39.000Z","2023-05-09T17:03:39.000Z"
"Schreiber will be bought and employee stock cashed out.",50,,"viveutvivas","viveutvivas",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-15T21:20:35.000Z","2013-05-15T21:20:35.000Z","2017-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"We will never have a colony on mars larger than 25 people without launch costs going below $250/kg",85,,"Tuxedage","Tuxedage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-05-21T04:51:49.000Z","2013-05-21T04:51:49.000Z","2100-06-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"[Personal] I will be underconfident across the past 6 personal predictions",40,,"sty.silver","sty.silver",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-16T13:40:51.220Z","2020-01-16T13:40:51.216Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Personal] At the end of 2020, Dominion online will still be around, have the same rating system, and my rating will be at least 62",40,,"sty.silver","sty.silver",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-16T13:36:23.585Z","2020-01-16T13:36:23.581Z","2021-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"[Personal] I'll still take Melatonin daily at the end of 2020 (remains true if I forget it <0.05 of the time)",95,,"sty.silver","sty.silver",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-16T13:12:56.279Z","2020-01-16T13:12:56.275Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will get married at age 35, +/- 2 years.  I'll be 35 in 2022.  So I'll know in 2024.",60,,"Idrinkitup","Idrinkitup",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-07T19:16:02.000Z","2015-09-07T19:16:02.000Z","2024-04-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cuba to become the fastest growing world economy during the 2020s - Alex Lightman",55,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-29T19:20:58.000Z","2015-07-29T19:20:58.000Z","2031-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Cuba to become the fastest growing world economy during the 2020s - Alex Lightman",25,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-29T19:27:38.000Z","2015-07-29T19:20:58.000Z","2031-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"I do pushups and situps at least 3 days/week in average week of Q4 2020",60,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,personal","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I travel outside the country at least once",10,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,personal","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Weight below 190 by 2021",10,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,personal","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I go on at least three dates with someone I haven’t met yet",20,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,personal","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I get a bonus for 2020",20,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,professional","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, I work the same schedule and locations I did before the coronavirus",80,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,professional","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"[Personal] Climbing will still be my primary form of exercise by 2023 (continuous between 2020 and 2023; caveat: barring major injury)",100,,"sungk2048","sungk2048",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-18T22:45:55.274Z","2020-01-18T22:45:55.270Z","2023-01-19T09:45:55.000Z"
"[Personal] My average fall asleep hour for 2020 will be 2:00 am or earlier",65,,"sungk2048","sungk2048",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-18T22:26:06.615Z","2020-01-18T22:26:06.611Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Personal] My favorite album, movie, and TV show will all be the same at the end of 2020 as they are now.",85,,"sty.silver","sty.silver",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-16T13:15:06.090Z","2020-01-16T13:15:06.087Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Personal] I'll work out at least twice on every day from now on till the end of 2020.",35,,"sty.silver","sty.silver",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-16T13:09:24.093Z","2020-01-16T13:09:24.088Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Personal] I'll work out at least twice on every day from now on till the end of 2020.",60,,"sty.silver","sty.silver","I got this",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-01T10:44:47.921Z","2020-01-16T13:09:24.088Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a 4x GM in Kaggle in 2020",20,,"peter_hurford","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-16T03:36:07.551Z","2020-01-16T03:36:07.547Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Turing Testable AIs will be publicly available by 2030.",70,,"Prickman","Prickman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-07T02:50:32.265Z","2020-01-07T02:50:32.260Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Turing Testable AIs will be publicly available by 2030.",90,,"Prickman","Prickman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-07T02:52:02.484Z","2020-01-07T02:50:32.260Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Entre os dias 11 de janeiro de 2020 e 26 de dezembro de 2020, publicarei ao menos 35 edições da minha newsletter semanal",85,,"chemotaxis101","chemotaxis101",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-04T15:12:28.402Z","2020-01-04T15:12:28.398Z","2020-12-27T15:00:00.000Z"
"Entre os dias 11 de janeiro de 2020 e 26 de dezembro de 2020, publicarei ao menos 35 edições da minha newsletter semanal",35,,"chemotaxis101","chemotaxis101",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-30T23:03:27.477Z","2020-01-04T15:12:28.398Z","2020-12-27T15:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, I have specific, set-in-motion plans to quit work / start my own business",5,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,professional","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2021, I’ve gotten at least one new patient to do a full wake therapy protocol",60,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,professional","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"More hits this year than last",70,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,blog","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I run another Adversarial Collaboration Contest this year",10,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,blog","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I do another Nootropics Survey this year",70,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,blog","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I have bought a Surface Book 3 laptop by 2021",60,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,personal","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will Positions by Ariana Grande move more than one spot down on the Hot 100 chart between 9am PST on Fri 11/20 and 9am PST on Sun 11/22?",100,,"Ben L","Amanda N","Because AG songs are addicted and in the past have grown in popularity quickly","This question is part of the Rapid Resolution Tournament Week 1. It closes at 12am PST on Thu 11/19. We won’t consider any predictions made after that time in the scoring.
Resolves according to this website: https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-13T18:18:12.518Z","2020-11-13T16:55:20.705Z","2020-11-22T07:00:00.000Z"
"I will win at least one prize in the Metaculus AI Progress tournament",30,,"Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland","","","Metaculus AI Progress","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T22:05:04.585Z","2020-12-24T22:05:04.578Z","2023-02-15T05:00:00.000Z"
"I will finish in the top 5 for the Bayes Prize (top forecasters across all rounds) in the Metaculus AI Progress tournament",13,,"Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland","","","Metaculus AI Progress","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T22:06:16.315Z","2020-12-24T22:06:16.309Z","2021-12-24T05:00:00.000Z"
"Will I finish something accurately characterized as a ""website makeover"" for my personal website by end of Jan 2021?",27,,"Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T22:09:38.507Z","2020-12-24T22:09:38.501Z","2021-12-24T05:00:00.000Z"
"My friend will reconnect and make plans with a love interest. ",62,,"Neon","Neon",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-23T22:24:22.000Z","2015-11-23T22:24:22.000Z","2015-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will I put up a new blog post on my website by end of 2021?",62,,"Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-24T22:10:44.096Z","2020-12-24T22:10:44.090Z","2022-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"25I-NBOMe to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-16T03:27:21.000Z","2015-07-16T03:27:21.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Sony to be more valuable in 2025 than 2010",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-16T08:42:29.000Z","2015-07-16T08:42:29.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Obamacare will survive, but might get changed around the edges by court challenges.",90,,"stephen","stephen","Cadillac tax may be changed.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-22T23:27:16.000Z","2015-09-11T06:46:58.000Z","2015-09-11T20:20:00.000Z"
"Obamacare will survive, but might get changed around the edges by court challenges.",90,,"stephen","stephen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-11T06:46:58.000Z","2015-09-11T06:46:58.000Z","2015-09-11T20:20:00.000Z"
"Some form of certification to people immune to coronavirus will be issued in Spain (either for people vaccinated or recovered)",80,,"sortega","sortega",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-06T19:20:03.177Z","2020-04-06T19:20:03.172Z","2021-06-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Some form of certification to people immune to coronavirus will be issued in Spain (either for people vaccinated or recovered)",5,,"sortega","sortega",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-28T10:41:34.940Z","2020-04-06T19:20:03.172Z","2021-06-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Jason will own a tablet (or regularly use a family one) before Dec 31, 2017. https://twitter.com/jsnsndr/status/270254241891889153",80,,"Porejide","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-18T20:16:15.000Z","2012-11-18T20:16:15.000Z","2017-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Voyager 1 to outlast the Mars Curiosity rover",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-15T19:52:30.000Z","2015-07-15T19:52:29.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will have >100 loss of function variants in my WGS data. 
(https://www.sciencemag.org/content/335/6070/823) ",55,,"Porejide","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-15T22:26:56.000Z","2015-09-15T22:26:56.000Z","2016-01-15T22:26:56.000Z"
"More than 13% of the loss of function genes in my WGS data will be related to chemosensation. ",66,,"Porejide","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-15T22:29:09.000Z","2015-09-15T22:29:09.000Z","2016-01-15T22:29:09.000Z"
"Voyager 1 to outlast Dawn Mission",75,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-15T20:28:54.000Z","2015-07-15T20:28:54.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"cracked.com to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",30,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-15T21:01:01.000Z","2015-07-15T21:01:01.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity will decrease deaths per person-year due to aging to 0.009% before reducing violent deaths to 0.0003%.",80,,"imuli","imuli",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-15T23:38:03.000Z","2015-11-15T23:38:03.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I think I will get all As or A-s on my courses this semester.",95,,"Majikkani_Hand","Majikkani_Hand",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-14T01:23:37.000Z","2015-11-14T01:23:37.000Z","2015-12-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Coin landing on eads",50,,"philvier","philvier",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-10T02:04:36.000Z","2015-11-10T02:04:36.000Z","2015-11-10T02:04:35.000Z"
"Michael F. Roman will be fired as ceo of 3M",30,,"Rsfinley23","Rsfinley23",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-04T21:25:51.633Z","2020-04-04T21:25:51.628Z","2020-05-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"That in 11 hours it will be 14:20 EST.",100,,"pjg5172","pjg5172",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-09T03:21:32.000Z","2015-11-09T03:21:32.000Z","2015-11-09T14:20:00.000Z"
"Real GDP will catch up to its pre-crisis level later than H2 2023",4,,"Survey results","IGM","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Later than H2 2023"" to the question ""When do you expect real GDP to have caught up to its pre-crisis level (Q4 2019)?"". 32 people responded to this question.","This question is from Round 10 of the FiveThirtyEight/IGM COVID-19 Economic Outlook survey. The survey series is overseen by Professors Allan Timmermann and Jonathan Wright.","economics,IGM","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-12T00:00:00.000Z","2020-10-12T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Real GDP will catch up to its pre-crisis level later than H2 2023",4,,"Survey results","IGM","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Later than H2 2023"" to the question ""When do you expect real GDP to have caught up to its pre-crisis level (Q4 2019)?"". 32 people responded to this question.","This question is from Round 10 of the FiveThirtyEight/IGM COVID-19 Economic Outlook survey. The survey series is overseen by Professors Allan Timmermann and Jonathan Wright.","economics,IGM","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-12T00:00:00.000Z","2020-10-12T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"U.S. 10-year bond yield dips below 0.25 in 2020",65,,"batemancapital","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-17T02:48:54.096Z","2020-04-17T02:48:54.092Z","2020-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"Real GDP will catch up to its pre-crisis level in H2 2023",5,,"Survey results","IGM","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""H2 2023"" to the question ""When do you expect real GDP to have caught up to its pre-crisis level (Q4 2019)?"". 32 people responded to this question.","This question is from Round 10 of the FiveThirtyEight/IGM COVID-19 Economic Outlook survey. The survey series is overseen by Professors Allan Timmermann and Jonathan Wright.","economics,IGM","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-12T00:00:00.000Z","2020-10-12T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Jonathan Ives will be viewed as a flop as iphone, ipad head (as judged by hindsight in 2016)",65,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-06T07:39:07.000Z","2012-11-06T07:39:07.000Z","2016-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"During the election of 2024 for President, both Independents and Republicans (the Republicans had been in decline) will put up  vigorous campaigns against the Democrat.",85,,"Turtleread","Turtleread",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-05T22:22:17.000Z","2012-11-05T22:22:17.000Z","2023-04-21T12:00:00.000Z"
"If Obama wins, then before end of his term, Fox News will have one of the top 3 liberal news shows.",65,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-11-01T16:11:17.000Z","2012-11-01T16:11:17.000Z","2016-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Real GDP will catch up to its pre-crisis level in H1 2023",11,,"Survey results","IGM","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""H1 2023"" to the question ""When do you expect real GDP to have caught up to its pre-crisis level (Q4 2019)?"". 32 people responded to this question.","This question is from Round 10 of the FiveThirtyEight/IGM COVID-19 Economic Outlook survey. The survey series is overseen by Professors Allan Timmermann and Jonathan Wright.","economics,IGM","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-12T00:00:00.000Z","2020-10-12T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Real GDP will catch up to its pre-crisis level in H2 2021",25,,"Survey results","IGM","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""H2 2021"" to the question ""When do you expect real GDP to have caught up to its pre-crisis level (Q4 2019)?"". 32 people responded to this question.","This question is from Round 10 of the FiveThirtyEight/IGM COVID-19 Economic Outlook survey. The survey series is overseen by Professors Allan Timmermann and Jonathan Wright.","economics,IGM","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-12T00:00:00.000Z","2020-10-12T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Gold reaches range $800~900/oz by 04/21/2021",30,,"batemancapital","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-22T04:05:41.144Z","2020-04-22T04:05:41.140Z","2021-04-21T16:00:00.000Z"
"[Statistics, Culture] For the next calendar year, starting 2021 to 2022, there will be a statistically significant drop in the number of children named 'Corona'
",55,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-24T16:12:34.096Z","2020-04-24T16:12:34.091Z","2025-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"The study of Hölscher will show that at in Munich max 5 times as many people are infected with Covid-19 than positive tests showed.",60,,"qznc","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-24T21:42:38.095Z","2020-04-24T21:42:38.091Z","2020-08-10T10:00:00.000Z"
"A airplane hangar foam-fire-protection system on the planet will save >= 33% of an airplane's present value from loss due to fire-the-airplane-is-intimate-with-from-fire's-inception over next 5 years.  validated by owner, witnesses or local fire brigade. ",30,,"eurekaignem","eurekaignem",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-26T20:50:36.000Z","2012-10-26T20:49:02.000Z","2017-10-27T10:00:00.000Z"
"A airplane hangar foam-fire-protection system on the planet will save >= 33% of an airplane's present value from loss due to fire-the-airplane-is-intimate-with-from-fire's-inception over next 5 years.  validated by owner, witnesses or local fire brigade. ",0,,"eurekaignem","eurekaignem",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-26T20:49:02.000Z","2012-10-26T20:49:02.000Z","2017-10-27T10:00:00.000Z"
"Real GDP will catch up to its pre-crisis level earlier than H2 2021",1,,"Survey results","IGM","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Earlier than H1 2021"" to the question ""When do you expect real GDP to have caught up to its pre-crisis level (Q4 2019)?"". 32 people responded to this question.","This question is from Round 10 of the FiveThirtyEight/IGM COVID-19 Economic Outlook survey. The survey series is overseen by Professors Allan Timmermann and Jonathan Wright.","economics,IGM","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-12T00:00:00.000Z","2020-10-12T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Zombies: metaphysically possible",23.3,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: metaphysically possible"" to the question ""Zombies: inconceivable, conceivable but not metaphysically possible, or metaphysically possible?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Morocco will require people to wears mask 2 weeks following the end of quarantine",60,,"kvfi","kvfi",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-05T11:05:07.171Z","2020-05-05T11:05:07.166Z","2020-05-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Fed cuts Fed Fund rate to negative before end of 2020",40,,"batemancapital","batemancapital",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-08T16:25:56.780Z","2020-05-08T16:25:56.776Z","2020-12-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"1330926	język rosnie?",75,,"mackiewelina","mackiewelina",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-09T19:44:16.242Z","2020-05-09T19:44:16.233Z","2020-07-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Daffy will move out of the Bay Area",70,,"daffy","daffy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-12T04:49:21.348Z","2020-05-12T04:49:21.344Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"adsfasdfasdf",70,,"daffy","daffy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-12T04:50:01.818Z","2020-05-12T04:50:01.809Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"EOY 2020",10,,"enolan","enolan","No movement, Stardust retiring from the job, Nova disinterested, quarantine keeps getting extended.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-02T17:18:04.747Z","2020-05-16T00:04:12.953Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"EOY 2020",20,,"enolan","enolan",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-16T00:04:12.956Z","2020-05-16T00:04:12.953Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"EOM June 2021",50,,"enolan","enolan",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-16T00:04:12.964Z","2020-05-16T00:04:12.960Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"EOY 2021",60,,"enolan","enolan",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-16T00:04:12.972Z","2020-05-16T00:04:12.968Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Australian government releases a version of the COVIDSafe app which supports Apple’s iOS contact tracing API in 2020",40,,"sjy","sjy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-21T09:19:47.056Z","2020-05-21T09:19:47.051Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Tech - LG releases a ""swivel"" two-screen smartphone which unfolds into a T shape by end of 2020",15,,"jbeshir","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-23T02:54:20.086Z","2020-05-23T02:54:20.081Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Tech - iPhone 12 releases in 2020",80,,"jbeshir","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-23T03:23:11.770Z","2020-05-23T03:23:11.766Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Tech - iPhone 12 releases in 2020, and does not include headphones/earphones in the box in the base model.",50,,"jbeshir","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-23T03:24:01.779Z","2020-05-23T03:24:01.752Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will pass Italian B1 language by mid 2022",60,,"waveman","waveman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-01T21:21:19.163Z","2020-01-01T21:21:19.159Z","2022-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kev will still be working here on 27th May, 2022",100,,"gurgus","gurgus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-27T09:45:02.402Z","2020-05-27T09:45:02.395Z","2022-05-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will weight 67kg or less by EOY 2020",55,,"waveman","waveman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-01T21:19:23.481Z","2020-01-01T21:19:23.476Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on visiting Russia, I will like it better than the United Kingdom.",80,,"Issa Rice","Issa Rice",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-01T02:37:31.969Z","2020-06-01T02:37:31.964Z","2023-01-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zombies: conceivable but not metaphysically possible",35.6,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: conceivable but not metaphysically possible"" to the question ""Zombies: inconceivable, conceivable but not metaphysically possible, or metaphysically possible?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I contribute a major feature to PredictionBook",40,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T23:37:53.926Z","2019-12-31T23:37:53.923Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"I contribute a major feature to PredictionBook",10,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T09:52:35.878Z","2019-12-31T23:37:53.923Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"I contribute a major feature to PredictionBook",1,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-13T09:55:38.657Z","2019-12-31T23:37:53.923Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Koios has said his first clear comprehensible word by 2021",50,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,friends","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Jimmy Carter to become a centenarian",20,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-05T03:53:45.318Z","2020-06-05T03:53:45.314Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be more kakapo in 2030 than in 2020",80,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-05T03:59:45.901Z","2020-06-05T03:59:45.897Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ralph Nader will hit age 100",15,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-06T00:18:51.500Z","2020-06-05T04:01:03.204Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ralph Nader will hit age 100",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-05T04:01:03.210Z","2020-06-05T04:01:03.204Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will Adam D'Angelo become a father?",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-05T04:21:47.811Z","2020-06-05T04:21:47.806Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will Issa Rice become a wizard?",60,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-05T04:22:12.334Z","2020-06-05T04:22:12.329Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"No new long-term (1 month +) residents at group house by the end of the year",70,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,friends","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will John Goodenough hit age 100?",60,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-06T00:18:35.477Z","2020-06-06T00:18:35.473Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"This sore throat I’ve had for 5 days won’t turn into anything worse",95,,"msonaeiou","msonaeiou",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-25T01:28:03.040Z","2020-05-25T01:28:03.036Z","2020-06-01T01:28:03.030Z"
"None of the main 4 characters in Outer Banks will die in season 1",90,,"msonaeiou","msonaeiou",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-25T05:16:40.988Z","2020-05-25T05:16:40.984Z","2020-06-25T05:16:40.000Z"
"It'll all be over by Christmas (in at least half of all countries on a political map, according to their governments)",30,,"wizzwizz4","wizzwizz4",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-27T11:37:12.073Z","2020-05-27T11:37:12.066Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Hackerone will paid out $1 billion on the 23th of May, 2025",80,,"smodnix","smodnix",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-28T09:30:32.346Z","2020-05-28T09:30:32.333Z","2025-05-23T12:00:00.000Z"
"Max Verstappen will win the 2020 F1 World Championship.",21,,"skateboard34","skateboard34",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-05T02:52:31.893Z","2019-12-12T13:34:03.647Z","2020-12-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"Max Verstappen will win the 2020 F1 World Championship.",39,,"skateboard34","skateboard34",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-12T13:34:03.651Z","2019-12-12T13:34:03.647Z","2020-12-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2025, in Luxembourg, there will be some form of an autonomous taxi-fleet that can take you from 

rue Michel Lentz
Strassen 
to 
rue Charles Tornaco 
Luxembourg.

(chosen more or less randomly)",65,,"Mathieu_Putz","Mathieu_Putz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-28T15:28:03.422Z","2020-05-28T15:28:03.418Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will visit Russia by December 31, 2022 (""visit"" includes both short visits and moving there).",75,,"Issa Rice","Issa Rice",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-01T02:35:43.132Z","2020-06-01T02:35:43.123Z","2023-01-05T23:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on visiting Russia, there will be a single day during my visit that I will consider better than my day in Vienna (during my 2019 visit).",65,,"Issa Rice","Issa Rice",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-01T02:39:38.570Z","2020-06-01T02:39:38.563Z","2023-01-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"New co-blogger with more than 3 posts by 2021",10,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,blog","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Ada/Cardano to go above $1 by 2025",60,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-02T23:58:29.000Z","2020-06-02T23:58:28.994Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I finish Unsong revision this year",40,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,blog","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Most hits ever this year",20,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,blog","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Tezos to surpass Ada/Cardano in marketcap at end of 2023",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-05T03:53:24.593Z","2020-06-05T03:53:24.586Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will Sirocco the kakapo die before 2030?",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-05T04:04:12.591Z","2020-06-05T04:04:12.585Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will Sirocco the kakapo become a father?",20,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-05T04:21:03.989Z","2020-06-05T04:21:03.983Z","2099-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"2021 Portuguese presidential election - Abstention higher than 50%",60,,"LouisLC","LouisLC",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-06T08:57:13.364Z","2020-06-06T08:57:13.359Z","2021-01-16T23:00:00.000Z"
"Cal Newport's next book will be about applying lean manufacturing concepts to knowledge work (either main theme or one of the top ideas)",75,,"sortega","sortega",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-07T11:08:00.071Z","2020-06-07T11:08:00.066Z","2021-05-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cal Newport changes his name to something that doesn't sound like a state, a cigarette, or a beach. ",5,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-09T03:27:37.698Z","2020-06-09T03:27:37.696Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"New Glenn rocket to fly putting a payload into orbit by end of 2021. ",55,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-12T18:20:04.827Z","2020-06-09T14:11:41.567Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"New Glenn rocket to fly putting a payload into orbit by end of 2021. ",56,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-09T14:11:41.572Z","2020-06-09T14:11:41.567Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I start a SSC Book Review Contest this year",70,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,blog","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"First SLS to fly by end of 2021. ",28,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Green run delays look like they are going to take way too much time. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-30T16:49:24.369Z","2020-06-09T14:49:01.561Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"First SLS to fly by end of 2021. ",54,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Reduced confidence based on Green Run delays. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-27T20:41:31.089Z","2020-06-09T14:49:01.561Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"First SLS to fly by end of 2021. ",51,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-11T21:28:18.703Z","2020-06-09T14:49:01.561Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"First SLS to fly by end of 2021. ",26,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-09T14:49:01.573Z","2020-06-09T14:49:01.561Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"First SLS to fly by end of 2021. ",48,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-27T20:51:07.242Z","2020-06-09T14:49:01.561Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"First SLS to fly by end of 2021. ",57,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-06T14:38:16.140Z","2020-06-09T14:49:01.561Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"First SLS to fly by end of 2021. ",56,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-14T17:10:44.577Z","2020-06-09T14:49:01.561Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"First SLS to fly by end of 2021. ",54,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-01T20:34:42.562Z","2020-06-09T14:49:01.561Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"First SLS to fly by end of 2021. ",48,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-08T02:38:11.854Z","2020-06-09T14:49:01.561Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"First SLS to fly by end of 2021. ",23,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-17T17:45:43.192Z","2020-06-09T14:49:01.561Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"still living in chicago on Aug 1",70,,"joshuabecker","joshuabecker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-10T04:29:28.986Z","2020-06-10T04:29:28.981Z","2020-08-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Germanys GDP (BIP) decreases by at least 4% in 2020 (like in 2009 finance crisis)",70,,"qznc","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-10T19:10:09.294Z","2020-06-10T19:10:09.292Z","2021-01-04T11:00:00.000Z"
"Will I enjoy the UX of binary questions?",100,,"E. C. A","misha","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T20:09:40.379Z","2020-11-12T16:34:40.884Z","2021-11-11T21:00:00.000Z"
"",0,"NO","E. C. A","E. C. A","I can't predict with gfg%","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T20:07:37.653Z","2020-11-12T20:06:03.201Z","2028-12-31T21:00:00.000Z"
"Does this binary thing work?",100,"YES","E. C. A","E. C. A","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T19:53:37.878Z","2020-11-12T19:53:37.872Z","2021-11-11T21:00:00.000Z"
"Will the wage requirement for H1B be at the 45th percentile of the median salary by Nov 1 2023?",8.45258765,,"E. C. A","Amanda N","","Trump recently increased the minimum wage for H-1B visas from 17th percentile of your profession's salary to 45th percentile of your profession's salary. Will this still be in place 3 years' from now? Note the question above should actually say: ""the 45th percentile of your profession's salary"".This is of personal interest, as I will be applying for an H-1B visa in a few years.","visa,Trump,Biden","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T19:52:57.172Z","2020-11-12T17:57:32.883Z","2023-11-01T06:00:00.000Z"
"I start a Reader SSC Survey this year",60,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,blog","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I do another SSC Survey this year",90,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,blog","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Twitter to finally allow ppl to autoorganize tweets into folders by 2040",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-15T03:52:48.883Z","2020-06-15T03:52:48.878Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"If I ever understand monetary policy properly, I’ll think that Scott Sumner is basically right about NGDP targeting etc",80,,"wolfish_wrath","wolfish_wrath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-11-17T14:11:02.062Z","2019-11-17T14:11:02.057Z","2020-11-17T14:11:02.000Z"
"By January 1. 2026, proven exists a function f(x) such that 1) x log x = o(f(x)) 2) if N is an odd perfect number with k distinct prime factors, then log N > f(k).",55,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-09T14:03:07.206Z","2020-06-09T14:03:07.201Z","2026-01-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"Germanys unemployment rate will be above 5.6% at the end of 2020",70,,"qznc","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-10T19:05:24.346Z","2020-06-10T19:05:24.340Z","2021-01-04T11:00:00.000Z"
" accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by at least one woman within five (5) years 
",100,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-18T14:49:11.297Z","2019-09-29T16:40:42.716Z","2024-09-29T17:30:00.000Z"
" accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by at least one woman within five (5) years 
",95,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-29T16:40:42.724Z","2019-09-29T16:40:42.716Z","2024-09-29T17:30:00.000Z"
"easy autotranscriptions of mp3's into text files will become commonplace by 2035",35,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-15T03:00:54.228Z","2020-06-15T03:00:54.223Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Greg will propose to Yelena",90,,"jdmeagher","jdmeagher",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-07T01:54:08.000Z","2015-11-07T01:54:08.000Z","2017-11-07T01:54:08.000Z"
"According to a study by researchers at Oxford University, it's 90% likely that my current job as an HR administrative worker will be automated in 20 years.",90,,"Lissy","Lissy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-06T04:39:34.000Z","2015-11-06T04:39:34.000Z","2035-11-06T04:39:33.000Z"
"Russia's GDP will decline by more than 10% this year #coronavirus , https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/1240818241502658566 (duplicating March 20 bet)",50,,"akarlin","akarlin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-17T14:20:07.614Z","2020-06-17T14:20:07.609Z","2021-03-15T23:00:00.000Z"
"Genetic engineering to produce someone with an IQ over 200 by 2060",55,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-06T08:26:53.000Z","2015-08-06T08:26:53.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"An Immunitor vaccine clinical trial will actually take place in more than 20 people. ",7,,"katriel","katriel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-22T06:13:14.031Z","2020-06-22T06:13:14.026Z","2021-06-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Telegram app will block in some countries.",80,,"smodnix","smodnix",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-24T08:46:06.352Z","2020-06-24T08:46:06.346Z","2020-10-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"I deploy a project other than my portfolio site.",35,,"MikeMitchell","MikeMitchell",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-27T12:15:34.975Z","2020-06-27T12:15:34.971Z","2020-10-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I think that I will be working at the VA by the end of next month",60,,"DarthSophius","DarthSophius",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-04T20:55:41.000Z","2015-11-04T20:55:41.000Z","2016-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Green Run for the SLS will either not be completed by July 15, 2021, or at least one problem will be found during the Green Run requiring redesign of some aspect of the SLS. ",13,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Updating again per https://twitter.com/JimBridenstine/status/1305628680052498434 ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-14T22:09:08.544Z","2020-07-01T13:07:04.093Z","2021-07-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Green Run for the SLS will either not be completed by July 15, 2021, or at least one problem will be found during the Green Run requiring redesign of some aspect of the SLS. ",22,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-11T21:28:09.139Z","2020-07-01T13:07:04.093Z","2021-07-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Green Run for the SLS will either not be completed by July 15, 2021, or at least one problem will be found during the Green Run requiring redesign of some aspect of the SLS. ",12,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Back up per possible delays ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-27T20:40:54.892Z","2020-07-01T13:07:04.093Z","2021-07-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Green Run for the SLS will either not be completed by July 15, 2021, or at least one problem will be found during the Green Run requiring redesign of some aspect of the SLS. ",11,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-11T22:24:27.962Z","2020-07-01T13:07:04.093Z","2021-07-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Green Run for the SLS will either not be completed by July 15, 2021, or at least one problem will be found during the Green Run requiring redesign of some aspect of the SLS. ",29,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-08T02:37:51.207Z","2020-07-01T13:07:04.093Z","2021-07-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Green Run for the SLS will either not be completed by July 15, 2021, or at least one problem will be found during the Green Run requiring redesign of some aspect of the SLS. ",12,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Updating per sixth stage successful. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-06T14:38:40.552Z","2020-07-01T13:07:04.093Z","2021-07-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Green Run for the SLS will either not be completed by July 15, 2021, or at least one problem will be found during the Green Run requiring redesign of some aspect of the SLS. ",14,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-14T17:10:29.822Z","2020-07-01T13:07:04.093Z","2021-07-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Green Run for the SLS will either not be completed by July 15, 2021, or at least one problem will be found during the Green Run requiring redesign of some aspect of the SLS. ",16,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-01T20:34:55.799Z","2020-07-01T13:07:04.093Z","2021-07-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Green Run for the SLS will either not be completed by July 15, 2021, or at least one problem will be found during the Green Run requiring redesign of some aspect of the SLS. ",46,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Updating based on stages 1,2 3 now successful https://twitter.com/NASA_SLS/status/1281317235013844992?s=09 ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-09T23:21:53.724Z","2020-07-01T13:07:04.093Z","2021-07-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Green Run for the SLS will either not be completed by July 15, 2021, or at least one problem will be found during the Green Run requiring redesign of some aspect of the SLS. ",55,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-01T13:07:04.102Z","2020-07-01T13:07:04.093Z","2021-07-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Green Run for the SLS will either not be completed by July 15, 2021, or at least one problem will be found during the Green Run requiring redesign of some aspect of the SLS. ",44,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-17T17:45:27.556Z","2020-07-01T13:07:04.093Z","2021-07-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will grow at least 8-8.5% in real GDP terms from  1 April 2015 to 31 March 2016(FY16). --NITI Aayog vice chairman Arvind Panagariya",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-03T23:41:19.000Z","2015-11-03T23:41:18.000Z","2016-10-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will be the most populous nation in the world by 2050 at 1.63 billion people. --Jansankhya Sthirata Kosh or National Population Stabilisation Fund (NPSF).",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-30T04:35:43.000Z","2015-11-30T04:35:43.000Z","2050-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"My dry eyes will be noticeably better in 6 months from my last appointment with Dr. Hennie where he told me to take the triglyceride form of fish oil.",70,,"bhh322","bhh322",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-28T16:44:17.000Z","2015-11-28T16:44:17.000Z","2016-04-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will use PredictionBook at least once a year until 2027",33,,"wolfish_wrath","wolfish_wrath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-19T18:45:22.769Z","2019-07-19T18:45:22.765Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"SHA256:
452982B513A16897FEF1AB3AF4AA3C64A78F99065D7329362C5B9ED8BB95EC08",90,,"Somni","Somni",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-18T22:47:18.041Z","2019-07-18T22:47:18.040Z","2019-10-18T22:47:18.000Z"
"9502008321: Multifocal GBM ",90,,"Dylan.Kurda","Dylan.Kurda",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-03T20:59:16.000Z","2016-02-03T20:59:16.000Z","2016-02-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"aeon.co to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-15T21:04:53.000Z","2015-07-15T21:04:53.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I think I will get all As on my courses this semester",90,,"Majikkani_Hand","Majikkani_Hand",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-14T01:22:47.000Z","2015-11-14T01:22:47.000Z","2015-12-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Eliot will be forced to stop using ""purple people"" as an inoffensive placemarker for <some group of people>  because it will start to seem offensive and people will <know> who is being referred to.

See euphemistic treadmill. Within 5 years",50,,"waveman","waveman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-11T05:42:36.000Z","2015-11-11T05:42:36.000Z","2020-11-11T23:00:00.000Z"
"Launch bookshare on ios with good design ",70,,"Cliffw","Cliffw",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-14T16:32:10.345Z","2019-07-14T16:32:10.341Z","2019-08-14T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bugriyev Pavel says pedophilia will be normal in 5, but no more than 10 years.",80,,"ystasyuk","ystasyuk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-10T16:51:43.834Z","2019-07-10T16:51:43.830Z","2024-07-10T16:51:43.000Z"
"1186620
RCC papillär",90,,"prosti","prosti",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-09T10:23:47.179Z","2020-07-09T10:23:47.174Z","2020-07-23T12:00:00.000Z"
"Real GDP will catch up to its pre-crisis level in H2 2022",20,,"Survey results","IGM","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""H2 2022"" to the question ""When do you expect real GDP to have caught up to its pre-crisis level (Q4 2019)?"". 32 people responded to this question.","This question is from Round 10 of the FiveThirtyEight/IGM COVID-19 Economic Outlook survey. The survey series is overseen by Professors Allan Timmermann and Jonathan Wright.","economics,IGM","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-12T00:00:00.000Z","2020-10-12T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Real GDP will catch up to its pre-crisis level in H1 2022",26,,"Survey results","IGM","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""H1 2022"" to the question ""When do you expect real GDP to have caught up to its pre-crisis level (Q4 2019)?"". 32 people responded to this question.","This question is from Round 10 of the FiveThirtyEight/IGM COVID-19 Economic Outlook survey. The survey series is overseen by Professors Allan Timmermann and Jonathan Wright.","economics,IGM","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-12T00:00:00.000Z","2020-10-12T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will US airlines be shut down such that we can't get a flight from the East Coast to the West Coast on May 1?",10,,"Amanda N","Amanda N","Ethan's prediction: 10%
- Hasn't happened before in the US
- But Biden will be in charge
- Also, we haven't had > 50% infection prevalence before","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T21:32:40.848Z","2021-01-10T21:32:07.681Z","2021-05-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Real GDP will catch up to its pre-crisis level earlier in H1 2021",8,,"Survey results","IGM","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""H1 2021"" to the question ""When do you expect real GDP to have caught up to its pre-crisis level (Q4 2019)?"". 32 people responded to this question.","This question is from Round 10 of the FiveThirtyEight/IGM COVID-19 Economic Outlook survey. The survey series is overseen by Professors Allan Timmermann and Jonathan Wright.","economics,IGM","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-12T00:00:00.000Z","2020-10-12T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Zombies: inconceivable",16,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: inconceivable"" to the question ""Zombies: inconceivable, conceivable but not metaphysically possible, or metaphysically possible?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The growth of humanity and its descendants will stop forever within a thousand years or so.",10,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Robin Hanson","",,"wild-ideas","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T08:57:21.162Z","2001-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I will meditate for at least 1 hour (total) each month in a 1-year period before 2025",70,,"wolfish_wrath","wolfish_wrath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-22T16:05:20.446Z","2019-07-22T16:05:20.443Z","2025-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"_Aoki Uru_ will be released as a full movie by 2030.",9,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-09-21T22:42:48.000Z","2012-09-21T22:42:48.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will use PredictionBook at least once a month until Jan 2021",51,,"wolfish_wrath","wolfish_wrath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-19T17:18:56.070Z","2019-07-19T17:18:56.061Z","2021-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Nous continuons la traditions des week-end en ville",90,,"Medea","Medea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-09T11:11:05.164Z","2020-07-09T11:11:05.161Z","2025-07-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"BlackMarket Reloaded to shut down by 2014/4/30.",35,"YES","Gwern","Gwern",,,"tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-30T00:00:00.000Z","2013-10-30T00:00:00.000Z","2014-04-30T00:00:00.000Z"
"Sheep Marketplace to shut down by 2014/10/30.",50,"YES","Gwern","Gwern",,,"tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-30T00:00:00.000Z","2013-10-30T00:00:00.000Z","2014-10-30T00:00:00.000Z"
">30 Silk Road-related arrests by 2014/01/01.",20,,"Gwern","Gwern",,,"tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-08T00:00:00.000Z","2013-10-08T00:00:00.000Z","2014-10-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"MIRI or CFAR to evolve into terrorist organization by 2042.",1,,"Gwern","Gwern","Exact prediction: ""<1%""",,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-18T00:00:00.000Z","2012-10-18T00:00:00.000Z","2042-10-18T00:00:00.000Z"
">1m people using Google Glass-style HUD by 2023/06/08.",50,,"Gwern","Gwern",,,"tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-08T00:00:00.000Z","2013-06-08T00:00:00.000Z","2023-06-08T00:00:00.000Z"
"Mitt Romney loses 2012 Presidential election.",70,"YES","Gwern","Gwern",,,"US politics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-10-15T00:00:00.000Z","2012-10-15T00:00:00.000Z","2012-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"In no less than ten years, there will be a new ""dotcom bubble"" Uber either will change drastically their business model or fail in this timeline.",80,,"Athosvcc","Athosvcc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-10T07:45:29.610Z","2020-07-10T07:45:29.606Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chen Ning Yang will die before Tsung Dao Lee",55,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-11T04:35:15.117Z","2020-07-11T04:35:15.110Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will Boston even see an annual temperature below its long-term average temperature of 51.5 degrees past the year of 2020?",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-11T18:18:18.251Z","2020-07-11T18:18:18.247Z","2099-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
" Will Denver even see an annual temperature below its long-term average temperature of 50.4 degrees past the year of 2020? ",55,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-11T18:18:37.078Z","2020-07-11T18:18:37.071Z","2099-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Jakes IO psych conference happens in April",60,,"Adam Zerner","Adam Zerner",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-16T01:44:54.974Z","2020-07-16T01:44:54.969Z","2021-04-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Sirocco the kakapo to die before 2030",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-16T02:44:24.000Z","2015-07-16T02:44:24.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"reocities (or some other backup of geocities websites as comprehensive as reocities) to last to 2030",51,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-16T08:40:16.000Z","2015-07-16T08:40:16.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"SIP is completed by the end of 2020",98,,"peter_hurford","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-21T20:19:04.195Z","2020-07-21T20:19:04.190Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"VR is completed by 2020",95,,"peter_hurford","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-21T20:19:28.183Z","2020-07-21T20:19:28.174Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Jair Bolsonaro sofre impeachment antes do final de 2021",45,,"rapinoinfeliz","rapinoinfeliz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-22T04:57:56.937Z","2020-07-22T04:57:56.933Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Eduardo Leite (PSDB) se candidata à presidência nas eleições de 2022.",65,,"rapinoinfeliz","rapinoinfeliz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-22T05:02:10.983Z","2020-07-22T05:02:10.979Z","2022-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Busy Beaver of 5 is  47,176,870 and proven by 2080. ",35,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-23T13:56:54.858Z","2020-07-23T13:56:54.851Z","2080-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"I will end up opening that business with my teacher before the end of 2022",57,,"fandangos","fandangos",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-10T13:55:27.325Z","2020-07-24T13:54:29.919Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will end up opening that business with my teacher before the end of 2022",65,,"fandangos","fandangos",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-24T13:54:29.923Z","2020-07-24T13:54:29.919Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will graduate in the end of the year",73,,"fandangos","fandangos",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-10T13:54:27.882Z","2020-07-24T13:57:05.152Z","2021-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will graduate in the end of the year",70,,"fandangos","fandangos",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-24T13:57:05.156Z","2020-07-24T13:57:05.152Z","2021-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"My bachelor thesis will be done in time - even if they make some accomodations for me",82,,"fandangos","fandangos",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-07T16:26:04.289Z","2020-07-24T14:01:27.712Z","2020-08-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"My bachelor thesis will be done in time - even if they make some accomodations for me",80,,"fandangos","fandangos",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-03T20:48:28.182Z","2020-07-24T14:01:27.712Z","2020-08-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"My bachelor thesis will be done in time - even if they make some accomodations for me",70,,"fandangos","fandangos",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-24T14:01:27.717Z","2020-07-24T14:01:27.712Z","2020-08-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"My bachelor thesis will be done in time - even if they make some accomodations for me",95,,"fandangos","fandangos",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-22T14:38:56.502Z","2020-07-24T14:01:27.712Z","2020-08-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"My bachelor thesis will be done in time - even if they make some accomodations for me",90,,"fandangos","fandangos",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-10T13:52:24.865Z","2020-07-24T14:01:27.712Z","2020-08-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will publish a paper this year",63,,"fandangos","fandangos",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-10T13:51:35.153Z","2020-07-24T14:02:47.932Z","2020-12-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will publish a paper this year",60,,"fandangos","fandangos",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-24T14:02:47.936Z","2020-07-24T14:02:47.932Z","2020-12-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will see my sister in person this year",75,,"fandangos","fandangos",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-24T14:03:08.425Z","2020-07-24T14:03:08.418Z","2020-12-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will see my grandmother in person this year",68,,"fandangos","fandangos",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-10T13:51:03.505Z","2020-07-24T14:03:42.674Z","2020-12-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will see my grandmother in person this year",70,,"fandangos","fandangos",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-24T14:03:42.679Z","2020-07-24T14:03:42.674Z","2020-12-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"Jair Bolsonaro not impeached until the end of his mandate",76,,"fandangos","fandangos",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-10T13:50:54.491Z","2020-07-24T14:06:00.379Z","2022-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Jair Bolsonaro not impeached until the end of his mandate",80,,"fandangos","fandangos",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-24T14:06:00.387Z","2020-07-24T14:06:00.379Z","2022-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"I go to grad school next year",65,,"fandangos","fandangos",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-10T13:50:13.172Z","2020-07-24T14:07:48.020Z","2021-03-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"I go to grad school next year",70,,"fandangos","fandangos",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-24T14:07:48.024Z","2020-07-24T14:07:48.020Z","2021-03-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Truth: correspondence",50.8,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: correspondence"" to the question ""Truth: correspondence, deflationary, or epistemic?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Trolley problem: don't switch",7.6,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: don't switch"" to the question ""Trolley problem (five straight ahead, one on side track, turn requires switching, what ought one do?): switch or don't switch?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Trolley problem: switch",68.2,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: switch"" to the question ""Trolley problem (five straight ahead, one on side track, turn requires switching, what ought one do?): switch or don't switch?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Politics, US - Before 3 November 2020, federal legislation to provide at least $100 billion in direct financial assistance to state and/or local governments becomes law.",65,,"jbeshir","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-26T02:55:47.320Z","2020-07-26T02:55:47.314Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"Sheep Marketplace to shut down by 2014/4/30.",40,"NO","Gwern","Gwern",,,"tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-30T00:00:00.000Z","2013-10-30T00:00:00.000Z","2014-04-30T00:00:00.000Z"
"Bitcoin ≤$50/₿ at any stage between October & December 2013.",5,"NO","Gwern","Gwern",,,"crypto","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-19T00:00:00.000Z","2013-10-19T00:00:00.000Z","2013-12-19T00:00:00.000Z"
"In ""Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality"" the dead character Hermione to reappear as ghost by 2014/06/30.",30,"NO","Gwern","Gwern",,,"rationality","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","2013-06-30T00:00:00.000Z","2014-06-30T00:00:00.000Z"
"Kim Suozzi’s donation solicitations not a scam.",10,"YES","Gwern","Gwern",,,"misc","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-08-19T00:00:00.000Z","2012-08-19T00:00:00.000Z","2013-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Cosma Shalizi believes that P=NP.",1,"NO","Gwern","Gwern",,,"science","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-06-04T00:00:00.000Z","2012-06-04T00:00:00.000Z","2012-06-11T00:00:00.000Z"
"Joe Biden is physically present in the Oval Office on one or more days between Jan 20, 2021-Jan 31, 2021",55,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-23T08:53:05.835Z","2020-07-23T08:53:05.833Z","2021-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"For sufficiently large n, BusyBeaver of n+1, is at least the square of Busy Beaver of n. Proven by Jan, 1, 2051.",64,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-23T14:01:18.279Z","2020-07-23T14:01:18.274Z","2051-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kim Kardashian and Kanye West will separate within two years.",67,,"JohnGreer","JohnGreer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-23T17:43:48.365Z","2020-07-23T17:43:48.363Z","2022-07-23T17:43:48.000Z"
"I'll have my portfolio site completely updated by COB Friday, July 31.",70,,"dbrentp","dbrentp",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-27T14:39:22.864Z","2020-07-27T14:39:22.859Z","2020-07-31T17:00:00.000Z"
"Truth: epistemic",6.9,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: epistemic"" to the question ""Truth: correspondence, deflationary, or epistemic?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"[Fighting] UFC to hold a fight in France by 2020 EOY",53,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-06-25T04:25:17.592Z","2019-06-25T04:25:17.588Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Fighting] UFC to hold a fight in France by 2020 EOY",58,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-10-21T04:35:02.718Z","2019-06-25T04:25:17.588Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Fighting] UFC to hold a fight in France by 2020 EOY",79,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-02T01:38:46.764Z","2019-06-25T04:25:17.588Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Truth: deflationary",24.8,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: deflationary"" to the question ""Truth: correspondence, deflationary, or epistemic?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Para el mes 10 de 2019 habre terminado la certificacion de frontend developer de freecodecamp.",40,,"estebanf2019","estebanf2019",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-27T14:35:48.898Z","2019-05-27T14:35:48.892Z","2019-09-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At launch, the cheapest PS5 available from an authorized retailer in the United States will cost more than $500 (excl. tax, shipping)",90,,"bobpage","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-30T20:36:34.314Z","2020-07-30T20:36:34.306Z","2020-12-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Time: A-theory",15.5,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: A-theory"" to the question ""Time: A-theory or B-theory?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"S&P 500 will close the year read",85,,"checkpooh","checkpooh",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-26T16:51:14.446Z","2019-05-26T16:51:14.433Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"From 2 May 2019, Apple Inc. (Share price 2 May: $209.15) will yield more than Tesla share price (Share price 2 May: $244.10) in 4 years on a percentage basis.",0,,"separo","separo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-19T09:48:19.851Z","2019-05-19T09:48:19.845Z","2023-05-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"Teletransporter (new matter): survival",36.2,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: survival"" to the question ""Teletransporter (new matter): survival or death?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"India will have higher total (cumulative) confirmed COVID-19 cases than the US at some point before December 31 2021.",70,,"galaga","galaga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-03T13:41:00.978Z","2020-08-03T13:41:00.972Z","2022-01-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"...narrowly by Joe Biden. His popular vote win will be massive but due to voter suppression and structural advantages his electoral college margin will be small.",70,,"evan.f.young@gmail.com","evan.f.young@gmail.com",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-04T20:56:42.150Z","2020-08-04T20:56:42.147Z","2020-11-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"narrowly by Donald Trump. His voter suppression strategy and electoral college advantages will result in a EC win but popular vote loss.",60,,"evan.f.young@gmail.com","evan.f.young@gmail.com",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-04T20:56:42.160Z","2020-08-04T20:56:42.156Z","2020-11-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"...in a landslide by Joe Biden. The voter suppression strategy didn't work.",60,,"evan.f.young@gmail.com","evan.f.young@gmail.com",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-04T20:56:42.167Z","2020-08-04T20:56:42.164Z","2020-11-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"Science: scientific anti-realism",11.6,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: scientific anti-realism"" to the question ""Science: scientific realism or scientific anti-realism?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Denison University exceeds 20 COVID cases by the end of the year",80,,"peter_hurford","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-07T21:40:37.271Z","2020-08-07T21:40:37.266Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Install window tomorrow",80,,"pbadger","pbadger",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-12T06:44:44.387Z","2020-08-12T06:44:44.383Z","2020-08-13T22:00:00.000Z"
"I will buy a Mac this fall",25,,"Radish","Radish",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-12T19:14:41.798Z","2020-08-12T19:14:41.793Z","2020-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"No additional toilet malfunction before end of calendar year",80,,"Radish","Radish",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-12T19:21:22.570Z","2020-08-12T19:21:22.566Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Science: scientific realism",75.1,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: scientific realism"" to the question ""Science: scientific realism or scientific anti-realism?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Proper names: Fregean",28.7,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: Fregean"" to the question ""Proper names: Fregean or Millian?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"If we implement operator by Wednesday Aug 19, then on next Tuesday meeting, our First Time to respond will avg <1 hour. Luke's prediction.",99,,"maneesh","maneesh",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-18T15:44:37.596Z","2020-08-18T15:44:37.591Z","2020-08-26T01:44:37.000Z"
"a new world record in the men's 5000 meters will be set between now and 2025-08-01: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5000_metres_world_record_progression",33,,"finback","finback",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-20T15:27:56.610Z","2020-08-20T15:27:56.606Z","2025-08-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"[Fighting] Al Iaquinta to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY",0,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-26T06:28:28.506Z","2019-04-17T01:24:29.560Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Fighting] Al Iaquinta to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY",6,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-04-17T01:24:29.576Z","2019-04-17T01:24:29.560Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Fighting] Al Iaquinta to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY",2,,"Cato","Cato",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-21T05:15:04.659Z","2019-04-17T01:24:29.560Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Politics: libertarianism",9.9,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: libertarianism"" to the question ""Politics: communitarianism, egalitarianism, or libertarianism?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Coda's mainnet will launch by EOY 2020",60,,"enolan","enolan",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-02T17:24:18.962Z","2020-08-02T17:24:18.958Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Open table D&D game still going reasonably well in six months",70,,"PlacidPlatypus","PlacidPlatypus","So far so good.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-06T22:03:19.528Z","2020-08-02T20:19:48.536Z","2021-02-02T20:19:48.000Z"
"Open table D&D game still going reasonably well in six months",60,,"PlacidPlatypus","PlacidPlatypus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-02T20:19:48.540Z","2020-08-02T20:19:48.536Z","2021-02-02T20:19:48.000Z"
"Derek Chauvin will not be found guilty of murder / murder charges will be dropped (w.r.t George Floyd case).",75,,"galaga","galaga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-04T18:49:37.309Z","2020-08-03T13:50:33.114Z","2021-03-02T21:00:00.000Z"
"Derek Chauvin will not be found guilty of murder / murder charges will be dropped (w.r.t George Floyd case).",65,,"galaga","galaga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-03T13:50:33.124Z","2020-08-03T13:50:33.114Z","2021-03-02T21:00:00.000Z"
"Politics: communitarianism",14.3,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: communitarianism"" to the question ""Politics: communitarianism, egalitarianism, or libertarianism?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I run 5 km in under 21:00 by next year",60,,"sam_jaques","sam_jaques",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-11T19:02:44.355Z","2020-08-11T19:02:44.350Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I run 5km in under 20:00 by the end of the year",5,,"sam_jaques","sam_jaques",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-11T19:03:08.206Z","2020-08-11T19:03:08.202Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will release a blog post or other publication about this portfolio margin idea before EOY 2020",10,,"enolan","enolan",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-11T20:46:40.842Z","2020-08-11T20:46:40.837Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Try wall paint on sample tomorrow",90,,"pbadger","pbadger",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-12T06:45:29.086Z","2020-08-12T06:45:29.082Z","2020-08-13T22:00:00.000Z"
"If Caleb and I move our morning to call to 10:30am ET, I believe that, we will both be happier about the call time and results. If so, we may consider even earlier ",60,,"maneesh","maneesh",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-12T15:38:16.536Z","2020-08-12T15:38:16.531Z","2020-08-19T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will drop out of my PhD program after 2 years",30,,"Radish","Radish",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-12T19:13:42.407Z","2020-08-12T19:13:42.401Z","2022-08-12T19:13:42.000Z"
"I will continue to drink at least 1 cup of coffee daily on most weekdays through the end of this calendar year",80,,"Radish","Radish",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-12T19:15:55.135Z","2020-08-12T19:15:55.131Z","2021-01-02T07:00:00.000Z"
"I will not be married within the next 5 years",80,,"Radish","Radish",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-12T19:16:18.464Z","2020-08-12T19:16:18.460Z","2025-08-12T19:16:18.000Z"
"Perceptual experience: representationalism",31.5,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: representationalism"" to the question ""Perceptual experience: disjunctivism, qualia theory, representationalism, or sense-datum theory?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"NIST standardizes Kyber and Dilithium",70,,"sam_jaques","sam_jaques",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-14T16:32:04.736Z","2020-08-14T16:32:04.732Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Literature - Part three of the Kingkiller Chronicle trilogy is not going to be released before 2022-01-01.",90,,"NickN","NickN",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-16T02:17:54.680Z","2020-08-16T02:17:54.675Z","2022-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"I get Amazon student prime by EOY",60,,"Radish","Radish",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-18T19:31:01.422Z","2020-08-18T19:31:01.400Z","2021-01-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"Overall risk of extinction prior to 2100",19,,"GCR Conference","A Sandberg & N Bostrom","Summarised results of informal survey conducted at global catastrophic risk conference.",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so.",90,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Robin Hanson","",,"wild-ideas","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T08:57:03.928Z","2001-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"If this occurs interest in Dark Fluid theories grows greatly (size of the Wikipedia page and the number of references to Popular Sci articles both double within a year of the non-discovery). ",50,,"Ragnarok_Reverted","Ragnarok_Reverted",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-30T16:26:00.651Z","2020-08-30T16:26:00.648Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Nintendo to be more valuable in 2025 than 2010",35,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-16T08:42:19.000Z","2015-07-16T08:42:19.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bolsonaro manterá o mandato presidencial até o final do período para o qual foi eleito.",80,,"chemotaxis101","chemotaxis101",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-28T18:16:34.304Z","2019-03-28T18:16:34.299Z","2023-01-01T04:00:00.000Z"
"Bolsonaro manterá o mandato presidencial até o final do período para o qual foi eleito.",70,,"chemotaxis101","chemotaxis101",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-05-30T23:03:07.920Z","2019-03-28T18:16:34.299Z","2023-01-01T04:00:00.000Z"
"The US Census Bureau will find that San Francisco has a population of over 860,000",95,,"finback","finback",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-27T15:40:34.432Z","2020-08-27T15:40:34.423Z","2021-03-31T19:00:00.000Z"
"The presidential nominee will have a beginning approval rating lower than 57%",68,,"Ragnarok_Reverted","Ragnarok_Reverted",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-30T16:39:42.855Z","2020-08-30T16:39:42.843Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"A",80,,"Temp123","Temp123",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-03-30T08:25:07.650Z","2019-03-30T08:25:07.636Z","2019-03-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"starlink has a public beta available before december 15 2020",55,,"finback","finback",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-31T16:57:06.820Z","2020-08-31T16:57:06.816Z","2020-12-15T20:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will be ranked 4th in the world by 2021 for zinc production.",95,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-29T23:31:53.000Z","2016-01-29T23:31:53.000Z","2021-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Number of front-end developers to be higher in 2020 than 2015",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-17T01:44:43.000Z","2015-07-17T01:44:43.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Number of back-end developers to be higher in 2020 than 2015",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-17T01:44:55.000Z","2015-07-17T01:44:55.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will be ranked 9th(from 11th) in the world for solar photovoltaic total capacity in 2015.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-29T23:51:46.000Z","2016-01-29T23:51:46.000Z","2016-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"The total number of deaths for at least one week in the Florida 2020-2021 flu season (as reported at https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) will exceed 5,603.",90,,"gmcculley","gmcculley",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-03T18:25:43.871Z","2020-09-03T18:25:43.867Z","2021-03-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Using my webcam teleprompter will bring me joy",85,,"grin","grin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-04T00:23:59.257Z","2020-09-04T00:23:59.252Z","2020-11-01T16:00:00.000Z"
"Law enforcement in the USA is/has been pressuring ISPs to secretly configure router settings to spy on suspects",10,,"sam_jaques","sam_jaques",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-04T20:23:12.996Z","2020-09-04T20:23:12.990Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will judge my decision to pay for wop+ to be a good investment in 6 months",69,,"grin","grin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-07T16:00:51.274Z","2020-09-07T16:00:51.270Z","2021-03-07T17:00:51.000Z"
"I will judge my decision to pay for wop+ to be a good investment in 18 months",83,,"grin","grin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-07T16:01:12.777Z","2020-09-07T16:01:12.773Z","2022-03-07T17:01:12.000Z"
"just setting up my twttr",0,,"liamisntsure","liamisntsure",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-09T22:57:16.936Z","2020-09-09T22:57:16.934Z","2020-09-09T23:00:00.000Z"
"COVID, Europe/USA - Whithin 4 weeks, there will be more new infections per day in Europe than in the US.",80,,"NickN","NickN",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-12T20:21:44.251Z","2020-09-12T20:21:44.245Z","2020-10-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"Blind Guardian comes out with an album in 2019 and another in 2020",15,,"Michael Dickens","Michael Dickens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-19T00:50:06.107Z","2019-02-19T00:50:06.101Z","2020-12-31T20:00:00.000Z"
"At least 1m dead from molecular nanotech weapons by 2100 ",25,,"GCR Conference","A Sandberg & N Bostrom","Summarised results of informal survey conducted at global catastrophic risk conference.",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Politics, Thailand - Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha resigns before the end of 2020.",15,,"jbeshir","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-19T19:25:07.578Z","2020-09-19T19:25:07.572Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Newcomb's problem: two boxes",31.4,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: two boxes"" to the question ""Newcomb's problem: one box or two boxes?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will I enjoy the UX of binary questions?",10,"NO","misha","misha","Notes","","elicit,UX","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T16:35:38.175Z","2020-11-12T16:34:51.187Z","2021-11-11T21:00:00.000Z"
"Will I enjoy the UX of binary questions?",100,"NO","misha","misha","","","elicit,UX","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T16:35:30.757Z","2020-11-12T16:34:51.187Z","2021-11-11T21:00:00.000Z"
"Will I enjoy the UX of binary questions?",50,"NO","misha","misha","","","elicit,UX","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T16:35:03.727Z","2020-11-12T16:34:51.187Z","2021-11-11T21:00:00.000Z"
"Will I enjoy the UX of binary questions?",10,"NO","misha","misha","","","elicit,UX","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T16:35:01.075Z","2020-11-12T16:34:51.187Z","2021-11-11T21:00:00.000Z"
"Will I enjoy the UX of binary questions?",50,"NO","misha","misha","","","elicit,UX","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T16:34:54.881Z","2020-11-12T16:34:51.187Z","2021-11-11T21:00:00.000Z"
"Will I enjoy the UX of binary questions?",0.0005,"NO","misha","misha","","","elicit,UX","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T16:34:51.193Z","2020-11-12T16:34:51.187Z","2021-11-11T21:00:00.000Z"
"Stripe has an IPO before 3/1/22",67,,"finback","finback",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-24T16:25:06.768Z","2020-09-24T16:25:06.763Z","2022-03-01T20:00:00.000Z"
"https://appfairness.org or a similar campaign gets Apple to either lower their fee or pull their own apps from the store",60,,"grin","grin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-24T19:54:47.190Z","2020-09-24T19:54:47.174Z","2021-09-24T19:54:47.000Z"
"At least 1m dead from superintelligent AI by 2100 ",10,,"GCR Conference","A Sandberg & N Bostrom","Summarised results of informal survey conducted at global catastrophic risk conference.",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"At least 1m dead from the single biggest nanotech accident by 2100 ",5,,"GCR Conference","A Sandberg & N Bostrom","Summarised results of informal survey conducted at global catastrophic risk conference.",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"At least 1b dead from molecular nanotech weapons by 2100 ",10,,"GCR Conference","A Sandberg & N Bostrom","Summarised results of informal survey conducted at global catastrophic risk conference.",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"At least 1b dead from the single biggest engineered pandemic by 2100 ",10,,"GCR Conference","A Sandberg & N Bostrom","Summarised results of informal survey conducted at global catastrophic risk conference.",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"At least 1b dead from the single biggest natural pandemic by 2100 ",5,,"GCR Conference","A Sandberg & N Bostrom","Summarised results of informal survey conducted at global catastrophic risk conference.",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Moral motivation: internalism",34.9,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: internalism"" to the question ""Moral motivation: internalism or externalism?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Moral judgment: non-cognitivism",17,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: non-cognitivism"" to the question ""Moral judgment: cognitivism or non-cognitivism?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"9252916
Liposarkom",60,,"prosti","prosti",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-15T11:42:48.972Z","2020-09-15T11:42:48.967Z","2020-09-22T11:42:48.960Z"
"Moral judgment: cognitivism",65.7,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: cognitivism"" to the question ""Moral judgment: cognitivism or non-cognitivism?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Mind: physicalism",56.5,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: physicalism"" to the question ""Mind: physicalism or non-physicalism?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"At least 1b dead from all acts of nuclear terrorism by 2100 ",1,,"GCR Conference","A Sandberg & N Bostrom","Summarised results of informal survey conducted at global catastrophic risk conference.",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Human extinction due to molecular nanotech weapons by 2100 ",5,,"GCR Conference","A Sandberg & N Bostrom","Summarised results of informal survey conducted at global catastrophic risk conference.",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"At least 1m dead from all wars (including civil wars) by 2100 ",98,,"GCR Conference","A Sandberg & N Bostrom","Summarised results of informal survey conducted at global catastrophic risk conference.",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"VW.OS is canceled or sold+renamed in 5 years",80,,"qznc","qznc",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-21T18:57:40.857Z","2020-09-21T18:57:40.848Z","2025-09-20T10:00:00.000Z"
"I will weigh 205 or more in the morning",75,,"pdf","pdf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-25T20:40:44.812Z","2020-09-25T20:40:44.807Z","2021-02-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"am i in a tesla?",99.999,"YES","Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-15T20:27:24.527Z","2020-11-15T20:27:24.521Z","2020-11-15T08:00:00.000Z"
"Metaphilosophy: non-naturalism",25.9,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: non-naturalism"" to the question ""Metaphilosophy: naturalism or non-naturalism?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"gyazo to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-19T18:04:33.000Z","2015-07-19T18:04:33.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Time: B-theory",26.3,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: B-theory"" to the question ""Time: A-theory or B-theory?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will we play civ tonight given not playing in afternoon?",70,"NO","Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland","Copying Aaron’s prediction","","Civ","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-15T20:43:03.821Z","2020-11-15T20:42:44.800Z","2020-11-15T05:00:00.000Z"
"CP3 traded by deadline",65,"YES","Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland","","","NBA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-16T01:43:50.800Z","2020-11-16T01:43:50.795Z","2021-04-16T04:00:00.000Z"
"Darksydephil loses his house (or begins an unavoidable slide in that direction)",75,,"Coagulopath","Coagulopath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-13T00:19:10.658Z","2019-02-13T00:19:10.641Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Business income grows by at least 10%",70,,"Coagulopath","Coagulopath",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-13T00:16:44.494Z","2019-02-13T00:16:44.489Z","2020-12-21T12:00:00.000Z"
"PP will defeat Hbox in 2019",100,,"fairfax","fairfax",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-02-07T04:13:55.451Z","2019-02-07T04:13:55.436Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Personal - I will still be employed by my current employer at the end of 2019",95,,"Selentelechia","Selentelechia",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-06T17:35:57.703Z","2019-01-16T17:43:38.285Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Personal - I will still be employed by my current employer at the end of 2019",98,,"Selentelechia","Selentelechia",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-06-11T16:25:39.408Z","2019-01-16T17:43:38.285Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Personal - I will still be employed by my current employer at the end of 2019",90,,"Selentelechia","Selentelechia",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-16T17:43:38.292Z","2019-01-16T17:43:38.285Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Teletransporter (new matter): death",31.1,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: death"" to the question ""Teletransporter (new matter): survival or death?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Personal - I will be able to complete one unassisted pull-up at least once in 2019",80,,"Selentelechia","Selentelechia",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-16T17:40:24.760Z","2019-01-16T17:40:24.740Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"<2c, no form of solar radiation is used (emission reduction, carbon capture)",25,,"technillogue","technillogue",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-02T07:43:21.136Z","2020-10-02T07:43:21.133Z","2051-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Proper names: Millian",34.5,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: Millian"" to the question ""Proper names: Fregean or Millian?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Politics: egalitarianism",34.8,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: egalitarianism"" to the question ""Politics: communitarianism, egalitarianism, or libertarianism?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Business - Netflix worldwide subscriptions reported in their Q4 2020 quarterly earnings report is less than 197 million.",20,,"jbeshir","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-11T00:23:24.500Z","2020-10-11T00:23:24.494Z","2021-01-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"COVID, UK - It is legal for groups of seven non-shielding people to meet for the purposes of Christmas celebration on Christmas Day.",67,,"jbeshir","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-31T13:29:51.552Z","2020-10-11T00:46:37.532Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"COVID, UK - It is legal for groups of seven non-shielding people to meet for the purposes of Christmas celebration on Christmas Day.",80,,"jbeshir","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-11T00:46:37.536Z","2020-10-11T00:46:37.532Z","2020-12-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Personal  - I will squat 150lbs at least once in 2019",95,,"Selentelechia","Selentelechia",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-16T17:35:25.057Z","2019-01-16T17:35:25.042Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Personal  - I will squat 150lbs at least once in 2019",89,,"Selentelechia","Selentelechia",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-06-11T16:28:57.646Z","2019-01-16T17:35:25.042Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Personal - I will deadlift 200lbs at least once in 2019",98,,"Selentelechia","Selentelechia",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-06-11T16:26:21.543Z","2019-01-16T17:33:40.126Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Personal - I will deadlift 200lbs at least once in 2019",95,,"Selentelechia","Selentelechia",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-16T17:33:40.141Z","2019-01-16T17:33:40.126Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"1190432
MCN maligne entartet",75,,"prosti","prosti",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-20T11:41:21.450Z","2020-10-20T11:41:21.446Z","2020-10-23T00:00:00.000Z"
"Hungary will go into lockdown",20,,"MartaK","MartaK",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-30T08:49:08.522Z","2020-10-30T08:49:08.516Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Hungary will open its borders back",10,,"MartaK","MartaK",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-30T08:51:09.008Z","2020-10-30T08:51:09.002Z","2021-03-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Hungary will open its borders back",40,,"MartaK","MartaK",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-30T08:51:52.336Z","2020-10-30T08:51:52.332Z","2021-04-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will move to Glasgow this year",30,,"ayegill","ayegill",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-16T16:30:08.975Z","2020-10-31T12:51:05.913Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will move to Glasgow this year",40,,"ayegill","ayegill",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-31T12:51:05.918Z","2020-10-31T12:51:05.913Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Personal  - I will have dated or be dating someone with the intent to make it a long-term relationship (considering marriage) by the end of 2019",95,,"Selentelechia","Selentelechia",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-16T17:15:27.096Z","2019-01-16T17:15:27.080Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"+2c for at least a continuous year before 2050 ",25,,"technillogue","technillogue",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-02T07:43:21.113Z","2020-10-02T07:43:21.109Z","2051-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"<2c, marine cloud brightening is used",30,,"technillogue","technillogue",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-02T07:43:21.120Z","2020-10-02T07:43:21.117Z","2051-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"<2c, a form of solar radiation management other than marine cloud brightening is used",20,,"technillogue","technillogue",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-02T07:43:21.128Z","2020-10-02T07:43:21.125Z","2051-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Politics, UK - Tavistock Judicial Review rules that a court order is necessary for the prescription of puberty blockers to teenagers as a part of GIDS.",10,,"jbeshir","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-08T17:31:47.874Z","2020-10-08T17:31:47.868Z","2021-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Personal identity: further-fact view",12.2,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: further-fact view"" to the question ""Personal identity: biological view, psychological view, or further-fact view?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Business - Netflix worldwide subscriptions reported in their Q4 2020 quarterly earnings report is greater than than 210 million.",25,,"jbeshir","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-11T00:24:12.953Z","2020-10-11T00:24:12.949Z","2021-01-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"The biggest federated social network will have at least 10 times more users than the biggest federated social network on 2019-01-01.
",45,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T20:55:29.721Z","2019-01-08T20:55:29.707Z","2030-01-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"The biggest federated social network will have at least 10 times more users than the biggest federated social network on 2019-01-01.
",35,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-05T21:11:41.169Z","2019-01-08T20:55:29.707Z","2030-01-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"In Finland before 2021-01-01 someone is vaccinated against COVID-19 with non-experimental vaccine approved for use in Finland",80,,"kuudes","kuudes",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-16T23:28:37.800Z","2020-10-16T23:28:37.793Z","2021-01-01T10:00:00.000Z"
"""We will not be able to simulate a Eukaryotic cell (2^46-2^47 atoms) with high-fidelity classical physics at more than 0.1% of real time""",66,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T19:06:59.588Z","2019-01-07T19:06:59.572Z","2101-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"""We will not be able to simulate a Eukaryotic cell (2^46-2^47 atoms) with high-fidelity classical physics at more than 0.1% of real time""",60,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-05T21:11:40.675Z","2019-01-07T19:06:59.572Z","2101-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"strongly positive",2,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-02T00:56:34.311Z","2019-01-02T00:56:34.297Z","2023-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"strongly positive",2,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-01T00:19:51.602Z","2019-01-02T00:56:34.297Z","2023-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Personal identity: psychological view",33.6,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: psychological view"" to the question ""Personal identity: biological view, psychological view, or further-fact view?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Nawa will publish data justifying their press release's claims of record-high battery energy density in 2021.",30,,"srconstantin","srconstantin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-27T21:26:23.463Z","2020-10-27T21:26:23.459Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Politics, US - 1% or less of absentee ballots are rejected in the November 2020 presidential election.",25,,"jbeshir","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-31T03:28:53.052Z","2020-10-31T03:28:53.039Z","2021-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Politics, US - 4.5% or more of absentee ballots are rejected in the November 2020 presidential election.",25,,"jbeshir","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-31T03:29:25.679Z","2020-10-31T03:29:25.675Z","2021-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"mildly positive",20,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-02T00:56:34.276Z","2019-01-02T00:56:34.262Z","2023-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"mildly positive",10,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-01T00:20:12.900Z","2019-01-02T00:56:34.262Z","2023-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"neutral/meh/don't care/his government didn't last long enough for me to have an opinion",30,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-02T00:56:34.250Z","2019-01-02T00:56:34.245Z","2023-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"neutral/meh/don't care/his government didn't last long enough for me to have an opinion",30,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-01T00:21:37.420Z","2019-01-02T00:56:34.245Z","2023-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"mildly negative",20,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-02T00:56:34.233Z","2019-01-02T00:56:34.227Z","2023-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"mildly negative",25,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-01T00:21:31.001Z","2019-01-02T00:56:34.227Z","2023-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"moderately negative",15,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-01T00:20:40.064Z","2019-01-02T00:56:34.201Z","2023-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"moderately negative",13,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-02T00:56:34.215Z","2019-01-02T00:56:34.201Z","2023-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Jrue Holiday traded by deadline",70,"YES","Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland","","","NBA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-16T01:44:09.894Z","2020-11-16T01:44:09.875Z","2021-11-16T05:00:00.000Z"
"Jrue Holiday traded to Nuggets",25,"NO","Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland","","","NBA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-16T01:44:22.283Z","2020-11-16T01:44:22.277Z","2021-11-16T05:00:00.000Z"
"Personal - I will bench press 100lbs at least once in 2019",85,,"Selentelechia","Selentelechia","Adding 20lbs to my bench in six months looks slightly less likely",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-05-06T17:36:57.279Z","2019-01-16T17:34:49.920Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Personal - I will bench press 100lbs at least once in 2019",95,,"Selentelechia","Selentelechia",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-16T17:34:49.926Z","2019-01-16T17:34:49.920Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Hungary will open borders before February",10,,"MartaK","MartaK",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T07:58:33.524Z","2020-11-02T07:58:33.519Z","2021-01-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Personal identity: biological view",16.9,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: biological view"" to the question ""Personal identity: biological view, psychological view, or further-fact view?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Personal - I weigh in at below 61kg between the start of the 15th of November 2020 and the start of the 1st of December 2020.",73,,"jbeshir","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-10-31T13:26:56.676Z","2020-10-31T13:26:56.672Z","2020-12-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"bitcoin will rise above $20k at least once before May 1st (six months from now)",55,,"seanbas","seanbas",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-01T16:34:38.974Z","2020-11-01T16:34:38.970Z","2021-05-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Personal  - My mother will undergo transplant surgery before the end of 2019",63,,"Selentelechia","Selentelechia",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-16T17:04:14.668Z","2019-01-16T17:04:14.633Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Personal - My mother will be called about the possibility of donor organs before the end of 2019",71,,"Selentelechia","Selentelechia",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-16T17:03:25.431Z","2019-01-16T17:03:25.416Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Between 2019 and 2030 the price of bitcoin will rise above 15000$ per bitcoin",35,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T20:56:22.868Z","2019-01-08T20:56:22.854Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 20 of the top 100 websites (Alexa rank) will only be usable (core functionality) after having paid a fee",20,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-08T20:53:57.610Z","2019-01-08T20:53:57.592Z","2030-01-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"ND will finish his EU strategy by the end of the month",90,,"peter_hurford","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-02T18:02:27.137Z","2020-11-02T18:02:27.132Z","2020-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"My election-related PredictIt bets are profitable (see clearer definition in comment)",95,,"peter_hurford","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-03T02:14:39.893Z","2020-11-03T02:14:39.888Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""We will not discover a way to create even small worlds (e.g. a house-sized world)""",70,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-07T19:13:44.814Z","2019-01-07T19:13:44.808Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"moderately positive",8,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-02T00:56:34.293Z","2019-01-02T00:56:34.280Z","2023-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"moderately positive",6,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-01T00:20:04.188Z","2019-01-02T00:56:34.280Z","2023-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Beyond meat upp 20% inom 60 månader ",65,,"Alban22","Alban22",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-04T10:48:48.989Z","2020-11-04T10:48:48.986Z","2021-09-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Perceptual experience: sense-datum theory",3.1,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: sense-datum theory"" to the question ""Perceptual experience: disjunctivism, qualia theory, representationalism, or sense-datum theory?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Normative ethics: virtue ethics",18.2,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: virtue ethics"" to the question ""Normative ethics: deontology, consequentialism, or virtue ethics?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","PhilPapers,philosophy","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"strongly negative",7,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-02T00:56:34.186Z","2019-01-02T00:56:34.179Z","2023-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"strongly negative",12,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-01T00:20:30.150Z","2019-01-02T00:56:34.179Z","2023-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"At least 1m dead from the single biggest engineered pandemic by 2100 ",30,,"GCR Conference","A Sandberg & N Bostrom","Summarised results of informal survey conducted at global catastrophic risk conference.",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Gynae malignancy 023354",80,,"bridgid.connolly@gmail.com","bridgid.connolly@gmail.com",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-14T07:47:27.803Z","2018-12-14T07:47:27.797Z","2018-12-28T07:47:27.775Z"
"E.T. will win at least 1 tennis match by the end of 2013",15,,"Michal","Michal",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-07T00:02:07.000Z","2013-09-07T00:02:07.000Z","2013-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 1m dead from all nuclear wars by 2100 ",30,,"GCR Conference","A Sandberg & N Bostrom","Summarised results of informal survey conducted at global catastrophic risk conference.",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"At least 1m dead from the single biggest natural pandemic by 2100 ",60,,"GCR Conference","A Sandberg & N Bostrom","Summarised results of informal survey conducted at global catastrophic risk conference.",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"At least 1m dead from all acts of nuclear terrorism by 2100 ",15,,"GCR Conference","A Sandberg & N Bostrom","Summarised results of informal survey conducted at global catastrophic risk conference.",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"fb will still ban erotext in 3 months",80,,"Somni","Somni",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-09T05:04:57.020Z","2018-12-09T05:04:57.007Z","2019-03-09T05:04:56.000Z"
"For each state in the 538 forecast, taking an average of the three most recent A+ polls from unique pollsters will be more accurate at estimating the true margin than 538's forecast",55,,"peter_hurford","peter_hurford",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-03T17:25:06.329Z","2020-11-03T17:25:06.324Z","2020-11-17T12:00:00.000Z"
"Boing upp minst  30% inom 1 år ",70,,"Alban22","Alban22",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-04T10:48:48.959Z","2020-11-04T10:48:48.956Z","2021-09-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Disney up ca 10% inom 1 år ",70,,"Alban22","Alban22",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-04T10:48:48.967Z","2020-11-04T10:48:48.964Z","2021-09-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"EPR upp 40% inom 1 år  ",70,,"Alban22","Alban22",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-04T10:48:48.974Z","2020-11-04T10:48:48.971Z","2021-09-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"norwegian cruis upp 40% inom ett år ",60,,"Alban22","Alban22",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-04T10:48:48.981Z","2020-11-04T10:48:48.978Z","2021-09-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"i will pass sra 311",97,,"jmcglade","jmcglade",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-12-01T00:31:07.000Z","2018-12-01T00:31:07.000Z","2018-12-14T12:00:00.000Z"
"#kocherga will get a CEA grant",20,,"crabman","crabman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-11-30T12:55:05.000Z","2018-11-30T12:55:05.000Z","2100-12-21T10:00:00.000Z"
"E.T. will win at least 1 tennis match by the end of 2014",75,,"Michal","Michal",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-07T00:02:34.000Z","2013-09-07T00:02:34.000Z","2014-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will publically convert to Roman Catholicism before 2025.",1,,"Jayson Virissimo","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-07T21:16:06.000Z","2013-09-07T21:16:05.000Z","2025-01-02T13:00:00.000Z"
"I will publically convert to Buddhism before 2025.",0,,"Jayson Virissimo","Jayson Virissimo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-07T21:17:19.000Z","2013-09-07T21:17:19.000Z","2025-01-01T19:00:00.000Z"
"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* Australian roads by 2030",40,,"Ben Doherty","Ben Doherty",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-09-14T07:10:10.000Z","2013-09-14T07:10:10.000Z","2030-01-01T01:00:00.000Z"
"The control problem will be solved until AI can recursively self-improve.",30,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-25T16:00:27.000Z","2018-09-25T16:00:27.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"AI goes FOOM until 2100.",85,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-25T15:59:58.000Z","2018-09-25T15:59:58.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"AI goes FOOM until 2100.",60,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-05T21:12:38.252Z","2018-09-25T15:59:58.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At the end of 2100, at least 100 mio. people will be alive.",80,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-05T21:12:40.209Z","2018-09-25T15:51:10.000Z","2101-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"At the end of 2100, at least 100 mio. people will be alive.",77,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-25T15:51:10.000Z","2018-09-25T15:51:10.000Z","2101-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity will establish a permanent base on mars until 2100.",75,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-25T15:50:21.000Z","2018-09-25T15:50:21.000Z","2101-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first 1-year period in which at least 1000 people will have lived permanently on mars will be between 2073 and 2085.",40,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-25T15:49:27.000Z","2018-09-25T15:49:27.000Z","2086-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first 1-year period in which at least 1000 people will have lived permanently on mars will be between 2073 and 2085.",18,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-05T21:12:44.488Z","2018-09-25T15:49:27.000Z","2086-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first 1-year period in which at least 1000 people will have lived permanently on the moon will be between 2075 and 2085.",40,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-25T15:46:30.000Z","2018-09-25T15:46:30.000Z","2086-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first 1-year period in which at least 1000 people will have lived permanently on the moon will be between 2075 and 2085.",10,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-05T21:12:50.084Z","2018-09-25T15:46:30.000Z","2086-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A",1,,"misha","misha","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-12T16:40:08.253Z","2020-11-12T16:40:08.246Z","2021-11-11T21:00:00.000Z"
"Normative ethics: deontology",25.9,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: deontology"" to the question ""Normative ethics: deontology, consequentialism, or virtue ethics?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The first 1-year period in which at least 100 people will have lived permanently on the moon will be between 2055 and 2063.",8,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-05T21:12:51.765Z","2018-09-25T15:45:49.000Z","2064-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first 1-year period in which at least 100 people will have lived permanently on the moon will be between 2055 and 2063.",50,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-25T15:45:49.000Z","2018-09-25T15:45:49.000Z","2064-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first 1-year period in which at least 10 people will have lived permanently on the moon will be between 2045 and 2055.",60,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-25T15:45:24.000Z","2018-09-25T15:45:24.000Z","2056-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first 1-year period in which at least 10 people will have lived permanently on the moon will be between 2045 and 2055.",7,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-05T21:12:54.276Z","2018-09-25T15:45:24.000Z","2056-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first human being will be born on mars between 2070 and 2090",47,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-25T15:44:55.000Z","2018-09-25T15:44:55.000Z","2091-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first human being will be born on mars between 2070 and 2090",35,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-05T21:12:56.192Z","2018-09-25T15:44:55.000Z","2091-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first 1-year period in which at least 100 people will have lived permanently on mars will be between 2052 and 2062.",55,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-25T15:47:44.000Z","2018-09-25T15:47:44.000Z","2063-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first 1-year period in which at least 100 people will have lived permanently on mars will be between 2052 and 2062.",24,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-05T21:12:46.397Z","2018-09-25T15:47:44.000Z","2063-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first human being will be born on the moon between 2060 and 2085.",54,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-25T15:44:31.000Z","2018-09-25T15:44:31.000Z","2086-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The first human being will be born on the moon between 2060 and 2085.",30,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-09-05T21:12:57.134Z","2018-09-25T15:44:31.000Z","2086-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Newcomb's problem: one box",21.3,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: one box"" to the question ""Newcomb's problem: one box or two boxes?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Moral motivation: externalism",29.8,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: externalism"" to the question ""Moral motivation: internalism or externalism?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Todas las pwrsonas usaremos IA al menos una vez en su vida en Peru, segun Marcos",60,,"jhairguz.t@gmail.com","jhairguz.t@gmail.com",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-23T02:50:56.000Z","2018-09-23T02:50:56.000Z","2038-09-23T02:50:56.000Z"
"Java va a desaparecer o perder el mercado, segun Diego de makerlab.",70,,"jhairguz.t@gmail.com","jhairguz.t@gmail.com",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-23T02:49:00.000Z","2018-09-23T02:49:00.000Z","2026-09-23T02:49:00.000Z"
"Finished the water",20,,"jhairguz.t@gmail.com","jhairguz.t@gmail.com",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-23T02:46:13.000Z","2018-09-23T02:46:13.000Z","2048-09-23T02:46:12.000Z"
"Fredy predice que Python desaparecerá
Python se reduce a 70% popularidad
(Moisés dice que lo revivirá)",60,,"jhairguz.t@gmail.com","jhairguz.t@gmail.com",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-23T02:42:11.000Z","2018-09-23T02:42:11.000Z","2020-09-23T02:42:11.000Z"
"He's (referring to Rurik) not gonna get one deliverable done. Chin said this on 10:41:04 PM IST",100,,"volis","volis",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-14T07:32:36.000Z","2018-09-14T07:32:36.000Z","2018-11-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"given S continues taking s in the next three months, they will blackout at least once in the next three months. will return inconclusive if the supposition is false.",90,,"Somni","Somni",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-04T17:08:49.000Z","2018-09-04T17:08:49.000Z","2018-12-04T18:08:49.000Z"
"Amazon superará a Cencosud en Sudamérica dentro de 5 años.",90,,"jhairguz.t@gmail.com","jhairguz.t@gmail.com",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-03T21:26:22.000Z","2018-09-03T21:26:21.000Z","2023-09-03T21:26:21.000Z"
"Seth Frotman's concerns about student loan lending practices will be vindicated",99,,"prophetofprofit","prophetofprofit",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-08-30T05:05:30.000Z","2018-08-30T05:05:30.000Z","2030-01-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 1b dead from superintelligent AI by 2100 ",5,,"GCR Conference","A Sandberg & N Bostrom","Summarised results of informal survey conducted at global catastrophic risk conference.",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"At least 1b dead from all wars (including civil wars) by 2100 ",30,,"GCR Conference","A Sandberg & N Bostrom","Summarised results of informal survey conducted at global catastrophic risk conference.",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"At least 1b dead from all nuclear wars by 2100 ",10,,"GCR Conference","A Sandberg & N Bostrom","Summarised results of informal survey conducted at global catastrophic risk conference.",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"At least 1b dead from the single biggest nanotech accident by 2100 ",1,,"GCR Conference","A Sandberg & N Bostrom","Summarised results of informal survey conducted at global catastrophic risk conference.",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"There exists a simple closed-form solution to catastrophe avoidance (in the outer alignment sense).",35,,"TurnTrout","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T03:37:11.901Z","2021-01-09T23:40:19.863Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"For the superhuman case, penalizing the agent for increasing its own Attainable Utility (AU) is better than penalizing the agent for increasing other AUs. ",65,,"TurnTrout","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T03:37:06.396Z","2021-01-09T23:39:57.557Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The 2018 Safra conference on AI is open to the public",90,,"ccokeefe","ccokeefe",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-07-02T18:34:07.000Z","2018-07-02T18:34:07.000Z","2018-12-03T17:00:00.000Z"
"Humanity will establish a permanent basis on the moon by 2100.",70,,"pranomostro","pranomostro",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-09-25T15:49:49.000Z","2018-09-25T15:49:49.000Z","2101-01-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"Turtle Island Foods (owners of the brand ""Tofurky"") lawsuit against the new Missouri meat terminology law will fail, at least before appeals",60,,"prophetofprofit","prophetofprofit",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-08-30T04:56:22.000Z","2018-08-30T04:56:22.000Z","2020-11-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Some version of Attainable Utility Preservation solves side effect problems for an extremely wide class of real-world tasks and for subhuman agents.",65,,"TurnTrout","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T03:37:03.748Z","2021-01-09T23:39:21.882Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"AUP_conceptual prevents catastrophe, assuming the catastrophic convergence conjecture. ",85,,"TurnTrout","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T03:36:50.046Z","2021-01-09T23:38:50.379Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"The EEF Reciprocal Reading trial will conclude the program improves reading comprehension with an effect size of 0.12 (50% CI: 0-0.24)",50,,"davidoj","davidoj",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-08-07T11:33:15.000Z","2018-08-07T11:33:15.000Z","2018-09-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"The ETL Daily - Monthly Metrics will crash on the 07/04",70,,"malafp","malafp",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-07-03T14:50:37.000Z","2018-07-03T14:50:37.000Z","2018-07-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"Agents trained by powerful RL algorithms on arbitrary reward signals generally try to take over the world.",75,,"TurnTrout","Jacob L",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-10T03:36:28.147Z","2021-01-09T23:36:46.962Z","2032-01-09T08:00:00.000Z"
"Rondo will end up with more career playoff triple doubles than Larry Bird (he'll pass Bird by 2015)",65,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-05-13T08:33:56.000Z","2012-05-13T08:33:56.000Z","2015-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Human extinction due to superintelligent AI by 2100 ",5,,"GCR Conference","A Sandberg & N Bostrom","Summarised results of informal survey conducted at global catastrophic risk conference.",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Mind: non-physicalism",27.1,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: non-physicalism"" to the question ""Mind: physicalism or non-physicalism?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Human extinction due to all wars (including civil wars) by 2100 ",4,,"GCR Conference","A Sandberg & N Bostrom","Summarised results of informal survey conducted at global catastrophic risk conference.",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"COVID, UK - It is not a violation of any guideline or law for a single adult living alone to travel from Edinburgh to Carnforth on the 18th of December 2020 to stay with family.",70,,"jbeshir","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-15T18:27:27.656Z","2020-11-15T18:27:27.651Z","2020-12-19T00:00:00.000Z"
"Metaphilosophy: naturalism",49.8,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: naturalism"" to the question ""Metaphilosophy: naturalism or non-naturalism?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The 7-day rolling average of postive test % will be above 12% for Oregon.",100,,"Justinthere","Justinthere",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:03:32.589Z","2020-11-20T20:03:32.582Z","2020-11-23T12:00:00.000Z"
"The rest of the European countries will introduce visa för Sweden by 2030",95,,"d8e8fca2dc0f896fd7cb4cb0031ba249@mailinator.com","d8e8fca2dc0f896fd7cb4cb0031ba249@mailinator.com",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-06-23T14:46:27.000Z","2018-06-23T14:46:27.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will be in prison or dead at the start of 2024.",5,,"sty.silver","sty.silver",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-14T08:23:37.035Z","2020-11-14T08:23:37.032Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Övriga Europeiska länder kommer att införa visum för Sverige före år 2030",95,,"d8e8fca2dc0f896fd7cb4cb0031ba249@mailinator.com","d8e8fca2dc0f896fd7cb4cb0031ba249@mailinator.com",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-06-23T14:45:46.000Z","2018-06-23T14:45:46.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Övriga EU länder kommer att införa visum mot Sverige före 2030",85,,"gsfshdshdfgfd@mailinator.com","gsfshdshdfgfd@mailinator.com",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-06-23T14:43:53.000Z","2018-06-23T14:43:53.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Politics, US - Donald Trump concedes the 2020 US Presidential Election before the start of the 25th of November 2020.",25,,"jbeshir","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-15T17:49:11.992Z","2020-11-15T17:49:11.988Z","2020-11-25T00:00:00.000Z"
"Politics, US – Donald Trump concedes the 2020 US Presidential Election before the start of the 12th of December 2020",50,,"jbeshir","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-15T17:51:12.505Z","2020-11-15T17:51:12.500Z","2020-12-12T00:00:00.000Z"
"Politics, US – Donald Trump concedes the 2020 US Presidential Election before the start of the 18th of January 2021.",79,,"jbeshir","jbeshir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-15T17:52:40.133Z","2020-11-15T17:52:40.128Z","2021-01-18T00:00:00.000Z"
"Meta-ethics: moral realism",56.4,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: moral realism"" to the question ""Meta-ethics: moral realism or moral anti-realism?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Logic: non-classical",15.4,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: non-classical"" to the question ""Logic: classical or non-classical?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I will go one week without eating candy",40,,"srconstantin","srconstantin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-16T14:08:16.140Z","2020-11-16T14:08:16.136Z","2020-11-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"The daily high temp in Portland will be below 53F.",75,,"Justinthere","Justinthere",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:05:02.101Z","2020-11-20T20:05:02.096Z","2020-11-23T12:00:00.000Z"
"The price of bitcoin will have passed $20k at some point this month.",100,,"Justinthere","Justinthere",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T20:05:31.250Z","2020-11-20T20:05:31.245Z","2020-11-23T12:00:00.000Z"
"Logic: classical",51.6,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: classical"" to the question ""Logic: classical or non-classical?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Determining if a knot is unknotted will be shown to be unconditionally in NP intersect co-NP by 2035. ",58,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-04-17T19:23:34.000Z","2012-04-17T19:23:34.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"God: Theism",14.6,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: theism"" to the question ""God: theism or atheism?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Free will: Libertarianism",13.7,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: libertarianism"" to the question ""Free will: compatibilism, libertarianism, or no free will?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"No analytic-synthetic distinction",27.1,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: no"" to the question ""Analytic-synthetic distinction: yes or no?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Meta-ethics: moral anti-realism",27.7,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: moral anti-realism"" to the question ""Meta-ethics: moral realism or moral anti-realism?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Human extinction due to the single biggest engineered pandemic by 2100 ",2,,"GCR Conference","A Sandberg & N Bostrom","Summarised results of informal survey conducted at global catastrophic risk conference.",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"What's the chance of human extinction by 2117?",3,,"Ben Todd / 80,000 Hours","Ben Todd / 80,000 Hours","Exact prediction: probably ≥ 3%",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-01T00:00:00.000Z","2017-10-01T00:00:00.000Z","2117-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Odds that our present civilization on earth will survive to the end of the present century",50,,"Martin Rees","Martin Rees","Exact prediction: ≤ 50%",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2003-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2003-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2103-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Mental content: externalism",51.1,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: externalism"" to the question ""Mental content: internalism or externalism?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Mental content: internalism",20,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: internalism"" to the question ""Mental content: internalism or externalism?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Chris Shinski will like J-pop in 2020.",65,,"spqr0a1","spqr0a1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-03-31T12:35:43.000Z","2012-03-31T12:35:43.000Z","2020-06-01T16:00:00.000Z"
"Aaron - 1on1 - Uses the phrase ""Over-Engineering""",80,,"zach.riddle","zach.riddle",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-06-14T18:50:57.000Z","2018-06-14T18:50:57.000Z","2018-06-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Space mining will be profitable before 2090, conditional on no existential catastrophe or win",50,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy","Prediction details at https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GkNjoGSruEayeAp87/predictions-made-by-mati-roy-in-early-2020",,"space-mining","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-23T00:00:00.000Z","2020-02-23T00:00:00.000Z","2090-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The first full body transplantation of a human will have been successfully done before 2045.",20,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-26T17:59:32.000Z","2015-02-26T17:59:32.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A hole will be drilled down to Earth's mantle by 2090",50,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy","Prediction details at https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GkNjoGSruEayeAp87/predictions-made-by-mati-roy-in-early-2025",,"hole","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-02-29T00:00:00.000Z","2090-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Bitcoins thought to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto will be spent by 2075-04-05",24,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy","Prediction details at https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GkNjoGSruEayeAp87/predictions-made-by-mati-roy-in-early-2026","Hacks don't count","crypto","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-24T00:00:00.000Z","2020-02-24T00:00:00.000Z","2075-04-05T00:00:00.000Z"
"Level 3 autonomous cars will be commercially available by 2030",50,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy","Prediction details at https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GkNjoGSruEayeAp87/predictions-made-by-mati-roy-in-early-2021","Clarification: Needs to be available for commercial use on public roads in at least one city (not just on the highway).","self-driving-cars","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-02-29T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Level 4 autonomous cars will be commercially available by 2036",50,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy","Prediction details at https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GkNjoGSruEayeAp87/predictions-made-by-mati-roy-in-early-2022","Clarification: Needs to be available for commercial use on public roads in at least one city (not just on the highway).","self-driving-cars","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-23T00:00:00.000Z","2020-02-29T00:00:00.000Z","2036-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Level 5 autonomous cars will be commercially available by 2042",50,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy","Prediction details at https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GkNjoGSruEayeAp87/predictions-made-by-mati-roy-in-early-2023","Clarification: Needs to be available for commercial use on public roads in at least one city (not just on the highway).","self-driving-cars","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-02-29T00:00:00.000Z","2042-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Level 5 self-driving air vehicles will be available by 2030",50,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy","Prediction details at https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GkNjoGSruEayeAp87/predictions-made-by-mati-roy-in-early-2024","Clarification: Needs to be available for commercial use on public roads in at least one city (not just on the highway).","self-driving-cars","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-02-29T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Fully artificial kidneys will be publicly available by 2042",50,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy","Prediction details at https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GkNjoGSruEayeAp87/predictions-made-by-mati-roy-in-early-2025",,"artificial-kidney","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-02-29T00:00:00.000Z","2042-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"A male birth control pill will be commercially available in the US or EU by 2045",50,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy","Prediction details at https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GkNjoGSruEayeAp87/predictions-made-by-mati-roy-in-early-2026",,"birth-control","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-02-29T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Laws of nature: non-Humean",57.1,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: non-Humean"" to the question ""Laws of nature: Humean or non-Humean?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"McDonald's McResource Line website will remove its advice to employees to sell unwanted Christmas presents within 30 days. ",60,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-20T06:43:51.000Z","2013-11-20T06:43:50.000Z","2013-12-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Clock of the Long Now will show a 1 as its first digit.",1,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-26T19:07:31.000Z","2014-01-26T19:07:31.000Z","9999-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Human population will stabilize by 2040.",85,,"rejuvyesh","rejuvyesh",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-11-20T16:40:01.000Z","2013-11-20T16:40:01.000Z","2040-01-01T06:30:00.000Z"
"Laws of nature: Humean",24.7,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: Humean"" to the question ""Laws of nature: Humean or non-Humean?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"New Calvin and Hobbes strips released before 2024",10,,"Omid","Omid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-11T01:54:25.000Z","2013-10-11T01:54:25.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will be a member of a cryonics organisation before 2022.",80,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-14T05:56:49.000Z","2014-02-14T05:56:49.000Z","2022-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Indian stock market crashes before 2020",60,,"jp870","jp870",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-10T14:20:01.000Z","2018-05-10T14:20:01.000Z","2020-05-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"BH will fail to add himself to his ""publicly visible wall of shame for a five year period"" over breaking a rental agreement.",95,,"seriouslykernelwtf","seriouslykernelwtf",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-06T21:04:36.000Z","2018-05-06T21:04:36.000Z","2018-10-16T23:00:00.000Z"
"At least one of my grandparents will get cryonically frozen before 2070.",15,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-14T06:06:39.000Z","2014-02-14T06:06:39.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Contingent on his winning the nomination, Rand Paul will make double digit gains over John McCain among minority voters. ",60,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-18T01:59:08.000Z","2013-10-18T01:59:08.000Z","2016-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Knowledge: Rationalism",27.8,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: rationalism"" to the question ""Knowledge: empiricism or rationalism?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Instagram to allow screenshots to be taken of computer/smartphone screenshots by 2020",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-19T18:05:03.000Z","2015-07-19T18:05:03.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Knowledge: Empiricism",35,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: empiricism"" to the question ""Knowledge: empiricism or rationalism?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Over the next five years, the Boston Celtics will win more regular season games than the Philadelphia 76ers.",70,,"davatk","davatk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-05-06T03:05:22.000Z","2018-05-06T03:05:22.000Z","2023-05-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russia will have a military campaign against Chechen rebels to indicate a sign of strength & make a statement.",65,,"WSykes","WSykes",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-12-30T18:02:59.000Z","2013-12-30T18:02:59.000Z","2013-01-03T12:00:00.000Z"
"mccabe will go to jail or be found dead",80,,"DanMotorcycleGuy","DanMotorcycleGuy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-24T03:54:07.000Z","2018-04-24T03:54:07.000Z","2023-04-24T03:54:07.000Z"
"I'm in an online forum where a technical analysis chart person is predicting LTC litecoin will hit 175 by 4/26/18.",51,,"DanMotorcycleGuy","DanMotorcycleGuy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-22T11:28:36.000Z","2018-04-22T11:28:36.000Z","2018-04-26T12:00:00.000Z"
"Virtual Immersion Technology will open up personalized virtual world's, VI video games & most popularly virtual cities (owned by companies similar to Google) in the 22nd century",60,,"deanmullen2014","deanmullen2014",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-12-31T00:56:52.000Z","2013-12-31T00:56:52.000Z","2110-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will still be using Prediction Book in 5 year's time.",56,,"Athrithalix","Athrithalix",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-03-29T14:56:18.000Z","2018-03-29T14:56:18.000Z","2023-03-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will still be using Prediction Book in 3 year's time.",60,,"Athrithalix","Athrithalix",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-03-29T14:54:44.000Z","2018-03-29T14:54:44.000Z","2021-03-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"Neo-Luddist's will be the Al-Qaeda of the 2110's. ",50,,"deanmullen2014","deanmullen2014",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-12-31T00:58:01.000Z","2013-12-31T00:58:01.000Z","2115-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Serious (personal) failure within the next few days.",95,,"OperaPhantom","OperaPhantom",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-03-13T07:45:06.000Z","2018-03-13T07:45:06.000Z","2018-03-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Tiger Woods will win another PGA tournament before he turns 50.",90,,"sh33lz3bub","sh33lz3bub",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-03-05T06:29:29.000Z","2018-03-05T06:29:29.000Z","2025-12-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"SpinLaunch launches no payloads (test or otherwise, suborbital or other) by 2030.",85,,"Athrithalix","Athrithalix",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-23T09:52:52.000Z","2018-02-23T09:52:52.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The WMATA Silver line will run to Dulles by the end of 2020.",40,,"davatk","davatk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-04-24T01:32:34.000Z","2018-04-24T01:32:34.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"hui",70,,"bastak","bastak",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-03-29T21:49:43.000Z","2018-03-29T21:49:43.000Z","2018-03-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will still be using Prediction Book in 4 year's time.",58,,"Athrithalix","Athrithalix",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-03-29T14:55:53.000Z","2018-03-29T14:55:53.000Z","2022-03-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"Knowledge claims: Invariantism",31.1,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: invariantism"" to the question ""Knowledge claims: contextualism, relativism, or invariantism?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Another smash ballot will be announced by the end of 2019.",60,,"Athrithalix","Athrithalix",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-03-16T10:52:02.000Z","2018-03-16T10:52:02.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Effective assistance will not be granted in time or at all.",99,,"OperaPhantom","OperaPhantom",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-03-13T07:52:49.000Z","2018-03-13T07:52:49.000Z","2018-03-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"I can trust my amore.",75,,"OperaPhantom","OperaPhantom",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-03-13T07:51:01.000Z","2018-03-13T07:51:01.000Z","2018-03-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"In it's Fighter X program to replace a fleet of Boeing F-18 fighters with modern aicraft, Finland will choose to purchase an amount of 50-70 JAS Gripen-E fighters from Saab, augmented by 5-10 F35 jets on a lease deal to reduce operating costs.",70,,"viissataa","viissataa",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-26T18:20:48.000Z","2018-02-26T18:20:48.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"000000 takes longer than 3 hours to complete",50,,"pkfalu92","pkfalu92",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-22T16:07:41.000Z","2018-02-22T16:07:41.000Z","2018-02-23T12:00:00.000Z"
"Star-ALE will not participate in the Tokyo Olympics opening ceremony.",95,,"Athrithalix","Athrithalix",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-12T09:52:59.000Z","2018-02-12T09:52:59.000Z","2018-10-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Star Trek: Disco] Ng yrnfg bar perjzrzore bs zveebe qvfpbirel vf erirnyrq gb or nyvir va bhe havirefr.",80,,"HonoreDB","HonoreDB",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-05T19:18:52.000Z","2018-02-05T19:18:52.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Star Trek: Disco] Ybepn'f fbhy fheivirf jvguva gur argjbex.",65,,"HonoreDB","HonoreDB",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-05T19:17:10.000Z","2018-02-05T19:17:10.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"HLSGives generates 20 career 1FTW pledges",70,,"Mjreard","Mjreard",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-15T22:26:05.000Z","2018-02-15T22:26:05.000Z","2018-05-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Star Trek: Disco] Bhe havirefr'f Ybepn vf erirnyrq gb or nyvir.",40,,"HonoreDB","HonoreDB",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-05T19:20:13.000Z","2018-02-05T19:20:13.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[Star Trek: Disco] Nfvqr sebz gur zlpryvny argjbex, gur grpu orvat zber nqinaprq guna va gur bevtvany frevrf vf arire rkcynvarq.",70,,"HonoreDB","HonoreDB",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-05T19:14:56.000Z","2018-02-05T19:14:56.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Luna (dating on blockchain) will have more than 40 000 registered users by the end of 2018",70,,"leo_grint","leo_grint",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-01-31T12:44:01.000Z","2018-01-31T12:44:01.000Z","2019-07-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"UA would not join russian custom union in next two years",70,,"vasaka","vasaka",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-20T10:23:44.000Z","2014-01-20T10:23:44.000Z","2016-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I have an iron deficiency",95,,"Vulture","Vulture",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-20T21:20:50.000Z","2014-01-20T21:20:50.000Z","2018-04-22T03:20:50.000Z"
"There'll be an official e-cash system (in competition with bitcoins or whatever the surviving coin system is) by end of 2024.",65,,"RandomThinker","RandomThinker",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-25T02:57:16.000Z","2014-01-25T02:57:16.000Z","2024-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ray Kurzweil: We can ""switch off our fat cells"" by 2020",20,,"qap","qap",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-30T04:41:22.000Z","2014-01-30T04:41:22.000Z","2021-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"30 June 2022",6,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:04:17.740Z","2017-12-23T15:10:22.000Z","2023-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"30 June 2022",99,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-23T15:10:22.000Z","2017-12-23T15:10:22.000Z","2023-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"30 June 2021",4,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:04:07.449Z","2017-12-23T15:10:22.000Z","2023-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"30 June 2021",90,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-23T15:10:22.000Z","2017-12-23T15:10:22.000Z","2023-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Augur will go up from $30.56",70,,"owenshen24","owenshen24",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-03T03:16:35.000Z","2017-12-03T03:16:35.000Z","2017-12-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Stellar will go up from $0.9",60,,"owenshen24","owenshen24",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-03T03:16:35.000Z","2017-12-03T03:16:35.000Z","2017-12-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Our Ford Focus battery lasts 100,000 miles",90,,"Adam Zerner","Adam Zerner",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-30T07:18:30.000Z","2017-11-30T07:18:30.000Z","2022-11-30T07:18:30.000Z"
"Crypto-to-crypto trades may be considered (by the IRS) like-kind (not trigger capital gains). Void if it is not litigated or the IRS never delivers an official judgement.",2,,"lavalamp","lavalamp",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-30T05:42:02.000Z","2017-11-30T05:42:02.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Knowledge claims: Relativism",2.9,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: relativism"" to the question ""Knowledge claims: contextualism, relativism, or invariantism?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Knowledge claims: Contextualism",40.1,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: contextualism"" to the question ""Knowledge claims: contextualism, relativism, or invariantism?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I will not change employers in the year 2018",80,,"imaxwell","imaxwell",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-01-02T05:41:33.000Z","2018-01-02T05:41:33.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"31 December 2022",7,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:04:25.440Z","2017-12-23T15:10:22.000Z","2023-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"31 December 2022",100,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-23T15:10:22.000Z","2017-12-23T15:10:22.000Z","2023-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"31 December 2021",5,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:04:11.731Z","2017-12-23T15:10:22.000Z","2023-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"31 December 2021",96,,"Bruno Parga","Bruno Parga",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-23T15:10:22.000Z","2017-12-23T15:10:22.000Z","2023-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a news story on Ethereum on https://www.1tv.ru before 2018",60,,"leftblank","leftblank",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-08T14:53:41.000Z","2017-12-08T14:53:41.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Raiden Network will go up from $3.63",60,,"owenshen24","owenshen24",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-12-03T03:16:35.000Z","2017-12-03T03:16:35.000Z","2017-12-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"The government will not fulfill its pledge to have vaccinated all of the top four most vulnerable groups (13.4 million people) by mid-February (using 14 February as the mid-point).",70,,"nathanpmyoung","jungwon","","","tomchivers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-05T21:13:50.514Z","2021-01-05T17:25:26.587Z","2021-02-28T08:00:00.000Z"
"The government will not fulfill its pledge to have vaccinated all of the top four most vulnerable groups (13.4 million people) by mid-February (using 14 February as the mid-point).",90,,"nathanpmyoung","jungwon","","","tomchivers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-05T20:55:06.290Z","2021-01-05T17:25:26.587Z","2021-02-28T08:00:00.000Z"
"If ex-president and capo mafioso gangster Lula and the permanent political class he bribed goes unpunished in 2018, there's a big chance Brazil will plunge into chaos and balkanize herself in the next ten years.",60,,"Laudano","Laudano",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-25T10:24:18.000Z","2017-11-25T10:24:18.000Z","2027-11-25T10:24:18.000Z"
"Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket to enter commercial service before the end of 2027",90,,"Athrithalix","Athrithalix",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-14T13:28:14.000Z","2017-11-14T13:28:14.000Z","2027-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will get A in my SRA 311 class",90,,"donjon","donjon",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-13T08:47:00.000Z","2017-11-13T08:47:00.000Z","2017-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will win the lottery",0,,"Gibs","Gibs",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-12T20:43:46.000Z","2017-11-12T20:43:45.000Z","2017-11-13T20:19:00.000Z"
"Data published by Cisco in 2020 or 2021 about total volume of IP traffic per month in 2020 will show an amount more than 10% higher than their prediction of 228 EB.",39,,"Vipul Naik","Vipul Naik",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-05T00:03:40.000Z","2017-11-05T00:03:40.000Z","2022-01-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"Data published by Cisco in 2019 or 2020 about total volume of IP traffic per month in 2019 will show an amount more than 10% higher than their prediction of 186 EB.",40,,"Vipul Naik","Vipul Naik",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-04T23:49:03.000Z","2017-11-04T23:49:03.000Z","2021-01-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"Android + iOS both have apps available that can 3D scan your feet so you can 3D print your own shoes at home.  At least one person prints & wears these shoes around and is caught on something like instagram doing so.  ",51,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-02T15:32:41.000Z","2017-11-02T15:32:41.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"ARCA Space will cancel development of its Haas 2C vehicle before the end of 2019.",60,,"Athrithalix","Athrithalix",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-11-02T12:11:47.000Z","2017-11-02T12:11:47.000Z","2019-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Existential disaster will do us in",25,,"Nick Bostrom","Nick Bostrom","Exact prediction: probably ≥ 25%",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2002-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2002-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Annual probability of extinction",0.35,,"Wells","Wells","Exact prediction: 0.3 - 0.4%",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"“Humanity avoids every existential catastrophe and eventually fulfils its potential: achieving something close to the best future open to us”",50,,"Toby Ord","Toby Ord","All core predictions from The Precipice are intended as magnitudal estimates and not explicit guides.",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","9999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Personally, I now think we humans will be wiped out this century",75,,"Frank Tipler","Frank Tipler","Exact prediction: ""Personally, I now think we humans will be wiped out this century""",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2019-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Sentient life will survive for at least billions of years",20,,"Ozzie Gooen","Ozzie Gooen","Exact prediction: at least 20%.",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Existential catastrophe as a result of “unaligned AI”",10,,"Toby Ord","Toby Ord","All predictions in The Precipice are intended as magnitudal estimates and not explicit guides.",,"x risk,AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2120-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Celgene stock will rise by 5% in 2017",70,,"juncholi","juncholi",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-30T11:04:18.000Z","2017-10-30T11:04:18.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"No free will",12.2,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: no free will"" to the question ""Free will: compatibilism, libertarianism, or no free will?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I was the target of the legal request LQDN got yesterday",2,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-28T20:50:16.000Z","2017-10-28T20:50:16.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within twenty (20) years there will be an option of seeing whether a Prediction Book user is banned or not
",95,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-21T15:10:03.000Z","2017-10-21T15:10:03.000Z","2037-10-21T17:00:00.000Z"
"I will be cryonically frozen.",65,,"Amélie_Roy","Amélie_Roy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-07T20:35:32.000Z","2014-02-07T20:35:32.000Z","2200-10-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"I will move to the silicon valley before I'm 30.",50,,"ZLM","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-11T11:39:41.000Z","2014-02-11T11:39:41.000Z","2019-01-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will figure out what being transgender means by my 26th birthday.",20,,"ZLM","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-11T11:47:44.000Z","2014-02-11T11:47:44.000Z","2015-01-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will be able to afford to sign up for cryonics by the time I'm 30.",95,,"ZLM","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-11T11:50:47.000Z","2014-02-11T11:50:47.000Z","2019-01-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"This site would benefit from having a hashtag functionality for predictions, allowing for easy searching and being able to look up prediction accuracy for specific hashtags.",90,,"ZLM","ZLM",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-02-14T14:43:33.000Z","2014-02-14T14:43:33.000Z","2019-02-14T14:43:33.000Z"
"The valonqar is Jaime Lannister.",50,,"Michael Dickens","Michael Dickens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-03-13T01:55:07.000Z","2014-03-13T01:55:07.000Z","2019-03-13T01:55:07.000Z"
"The valonqar is Tyrion Lannister.",20,,"Michael Dickens","Michael Dickens",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-03-13T01:55:22.000Z","2014-03-13T01:55:22.000Z","2019-03-13T01:55:22.000Z"
"By 2024 James F will publicly express regret at the amount of time he wasted investigating the claims of various religions.",75,,"waveman","waveman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-03-08T10:47:21.000Z","2014-03-08T10:47:21.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"equal to or lower than any Illumina HiSeq run, using the same physical MinION flow cell [sequencing well] structure as available 2017-Oct-01",80,,"gringer","gringer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-12T23:09:50.000Z","2017-10-12T23:09:50.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within 3 years one of the Ariel Castro victims will be on Dancing With The Stars - Joan Rivers",3,,"nsavir","nsavir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-04-24T07:03:52.000Z","2014-04-24T07:03:52.000Z","2017-04-23T12:00:00.000Z"
"External world: Non-skeptical realism",81.6,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: non-skeptical realism"" to the question ""External world: idealism, skepticism, or non-skeptical realism?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"ANTI-ANTIFA PROTEST regina cancelled",49,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-17T16:25:02.000Z","2017-10-17T16:25:02.000Z","2017-11-05T23:00:00.000Z"
"The next GW2 storyline will involve recovering from the destruction of Lion's Arch and Scarlett's rampage",50,,"bibliophile221B","bibliophile221B",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-04-27T18:22:08.000Z","2014-04-27T18:22:08.000Z","2014-05-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Actual ""Anki"" google trend level in the period a year from now (May2014 - April 2015) would mostly surpass the current forecast for the next year :
http://i59.tinypic.com/2uf4qvr.jpg",70,,"Neznans","Neznans",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-04-28T10:59:50.000Z","2014-04-28T10:59:50.000Z","2015-04-01T16:00:00.000Z"
"No gothic, gothic metal, ebm, electronic stuff festivals in USA similar to M'era Luna or GWT in Germany are running.",90,,"influnza","influnza",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-05-01T05:31:28.000Z","2014-05-01T05:31:28.000Z","2014-05-01T14:30:00.000Z"
"larry flynt pays out 10m$",8,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1","You know, this isn't *that* far beyond wikileaks https://twitter.com/phreakery/status/920167289475026944",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-17T06:08:04.000Z","2017-10-15T01:52:04.000Z","2020-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"larry flynt pays out 10m$",4,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-15T01:52:04.000Z","2017-10-15T01:52:04.000Z","2020-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"
http://alamalsayarat.com",10,,"alamal1","alamal1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-13T09:31:41.000Z","2017-10-13T09:31:41.000Z","2017-10-14T07:00:00.000Z"
"less than 1/10th the cost of all Illumina NovaSeq runs, using a different physical MinION flow cell structure from that available 2017-Oct-01",55,,"gringer","gringer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-12T23:09:50.000Z","2017-10-12T23:09:50.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"equal to or lower than any Illumina NovaSeq run, using the same physical MinION flow cell [sequencing well] structure as available 2017-Oct-01",55,,"gringer","gringer",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-12T23:09:50.000Z","2017-10-12T23:09:50.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Uniform civil code bill passed in India before 2019 general elections.",50,,"roshni","roshni",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-05-20T14:55:47.000Z","2014-05-20T14:55:47.000Z","2019-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"My children will have perfect aural skills because I will sing while pregnant",80,,"influnza","influnza",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-04-30T15:14:30.000Z","2014-04-30T15:14:30.000Z","2024-04-30T15:14:30.000Z"
"By 2030 genome sequencing would be offered as a service in local clinics/hospitals for an insignificant fee or for free in most (50%+) of the countries that today (2014) constitute together the Schengen Area, EU, Balkans, North America and Japan.",70,,"Neznans","Neznans",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-05-05T07:59:28.000Z","2014-05-05T07:59:28.000Z","2030-01-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"Homestuck will update by the end of this year.",78,,"wraith","wraith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-05-28T13:45:21.000Z","2014-05-28T13:45:21.000Z","2015-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"0 Equifax executives convicted/jailed",65,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-11T22:11:52.000Z","2017-10-11T22:11:52.000Z","2017-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"Trudeau's new Canadian copyright act removes ability to transfer copyright",8,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-11T21:57:16.000Z","2017-10-11T21:57:16.000Z","2019-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Children, on average, learn to be systematic before they learn to be quantitative",49,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-11T18:54:38.000Z","2017-10-11T18:54:38.000Z","2019-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Steve Bannon one of 5 remaining candidates in republican primaries, 2020",4,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-11T02:53:33.000Z","2017-10-11T02:53:33.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Michael Moore lives to see 26 states with legalized pot",51,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-08T17:23:37.000Z","2017-10-08T17:23:37.000Z","2099-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"bankendominoes starts again in the US OR massive bail-in in US occurs",57,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-07T19:30:13.000Z","2017-10-07T19:30:13.000Z","2023-05-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"I am extradited to serve time in a US prison/black site ",3,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-06T20:14:30.000Z","2017-10-06T20:14:30.000Z","2037-10-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmCDxmZI3I8 is censored",71,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-04T21:50:32.000Z","2017-10-04T21:50:32.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Lockheed Martin's Mars lander concept (as presented at IAC 2017) will be abandoned without ever being built.",90,,"Athrithalix","Athrithalix",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-10-03T12:35:20.000Z","2017-10-03T12:35:20.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I am single",48,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-25T16:27:19.000Z","2017-09-25T16:27:19.000Z","2018-09-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"External world: Skepticism",4.8,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: skepticism"" to the question ""External world: idealism, skepticism, or non-skeptical realism?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"External world: Idealism",4.3,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: idealism"" to the question ""External world: idealism, skepticism, or non-skeptical realism?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Cycle of threats doesn't end. The united states and north korea each threaten to use nuclear weapons on eachother, in no uncertain terms, at least once every 6 months until 2027",8,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-25T01:39:16.000Z","2017-09-25T01:39:16.000Z","2027-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Libertarian Party of Canada receives >2.1% of the vote in any federal election",58,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-23T01:18:40.000Z","2017-09-23T01:18:40.000Z","2060-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Libertarian Party of in Canada fields full slate(currently 338) candidates in a federal election",40,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-23T01:16:23.000Z","2017-09-23T01:16:23.000Z","2060-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Epistemic justification: Externalism",42.7,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: externalism"" to the question ""Epistemic justification: internalism or externalism?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Secret question related to donating",35,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-30T23:06:47.577Z","2020-12-30T23:06:47.569Z","2021-12-30T08:00:00.000Z"
"living things in Gliese 581g system as of past 20 years ",3,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-21T17:00:14.000Z","2017-09-21T17:00:14.000Z","2400-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Epistemic justification: Internalism",26.4,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: internalism"" to the question ""Epistemic justification: internalism or externalism?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Wogs do not differ, as a population, if ever tested on the Milgram experiment from the norm ( incl but not limited to 50-65% compliance )",40,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-12T20:56:14.000Z","2017-09-12T20:56:14.000Z","2100-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"""Infinite impact"" from AI within the next 100 years, which ""refers to the state where civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends"" (according to Beard et al.)",5,,"D Pamlin & S Armstrong","D Pamlin & S Armstrong","Exact prediction: 0 - 10%",,"x risk,AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2115-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"AI causes an existential catastrophe in the next century",0.55,,"Ben Garfinkel","Ben Garfinkel","Garfinkel was asked for his estimate during an AMA, and replied ""I currently give it something in the .1%-1% range.""",,"x risk,AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-07-13T00:00:00.000Z","2020-07-13T00:00:00.000Z","2120-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Chance that AI, through “adversarial optimization against humans only”, will cause existential catastrophe",5,,"Rohin Shah","Rohin Shah","This prediction is an interpretation of some comments that may not have been meant to be taken literally. Elsewhere, Rohin noted that this was “[his] opinion before updating on other people's views"": https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tugs9KQyNqi4yRTsb/does-80-000-hours-focus-too-much-on-ai-risk#ZmtPji3pQaZK7Y4FF He updated this in 2020 to ~9%, due to pessimism about discontinuous scenarios: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TdwpN484eTbPSvZkm/rohin-shah-on-reasons-for-ai-optimism?commentId=n577gwGB3vRpwkBmj Rohin also discusses his estimates here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/15/an-overview-of-technical-ai-alignment-in-2018-and-2019-with-buck-shlegeris-and-rohin-shah/",,"x risk,AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Wogs are less likely to listen to authority, as a population, if ever tested on the Milgram experiment from the norm ( incl or not limited to < 50% compliance )",33,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-12T21:00:02.000Z","2017-09-12T21:00:02.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Wogs are more likely to listen to the right kind of authority, as a population, if ever tested on the Milgram experiment from the norm ( in > 65% compliance )",29,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-12T20:57:30.000Z","2017-09-12T20:57:30.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"S.M. is gay",5,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-10T03:10:28.000Z","2017-09-10T03:10:28.000Z","2027-09-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Analytic-synthetic distinction",64.9,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: yes"" to the question ""Analytic-synthetic distinction: yes or no?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Ubuntu 18.04 released, not totally unusable",87,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-09T19:22:14.000Z","2017-09-09T19:22:14.000Z","2018-05-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Within 3 years, at least 3 manga English distributors will go out of business or stop publishing.",33,,"kiba","kiba",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-08T16:09:18.000Z","2012-01-08T16:09:18.000Z","2015-01-08T12:00:00.000Z"
"Aesthetic value: Objective",41,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: objective"" to the question ""Aesthetic value: objective or subjective?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"A priori knowledge",71.1,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: yes"" to the question ""A priori knowledge: yes or no?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Utah public lands lawsuit reaches US Supreme Court",50,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-04T17:54:26.000Z","2017-09-04T17:54:26.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Existential risk from unaligned AI over the coming 100 years",0.05,,"James Fodor","James Fodor","This was a direct response to Ord's estimate. It focuses on one pathway to x-risk from AI, not all pathways (e.g., not AI misuse or risks from competition between powerful AIs). ""These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate."" In comments on the source, Rohin Shah critiques some of the inputs to this estimate, and provides his own, substantially higher estimates.",,"x risk,AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2120-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"It will take more than 50 years from 2006 for computers be able to simulate every aspect of human intelligence",41,,"Survey results","AI@50","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered ""More than 50 years"".","From AI Impacts: ""A seemingly informal seven-question poll was taken of participants at the AI@50 conference in 2006. One question was “when will computers be able to simulate every aspect of human intelligence?”""","AI,survey","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2006-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2006-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"AI will be super human by 2045",50,,"Survey results","Seth Baum","This prediction expresses the median of survey responses to this question. The full set of survey responses was: 10% by 2025, 25% by 2035, 50% by 2045, 75% by 2080, and 90% by 2100.","From AI Impacts: ""Baum et al. surveyed 21 attendees of the AGI-09 conference, on AGI timelines.""","AI,survey","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"texting & driving illegal in most canadian provinces AND most vehicles (66%+) on the road fitted with safety features rendering such laws irrelevant",81,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-09-02T19:32:21.000Z","2017-09-02T19:32:21.000Z","2027-09-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"Aesthetic value: Subjective",34.5,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: subjective"" to the question ""Aesthetic value: objective or subjective?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Q.I. abandons its ""one letter a season"" concept.",10,,"muflax","muflax",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-31T18:10:04.000Z","2011-12-31T18:10:04.000Z","2028-12-31T18:10:04.000Z"
"1,500",66,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-30T05:53:28.000Z","2017-08-30T05:53:28.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Brighter Green a success",50,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-30T05:35:00.000Z","2017-08-30T05:35:00.000Z","2026-10-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to support the work of Professor Deborah Cao a major success",10,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-30T05:32:39.000Z","2017-08-30T05:32:39.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Open Philanthropy Project's December 2016 grant to Impact Justice's Restorative Justice Project will play an important role in getting traction for the concept of restorative justice on a national level (United States) by 2020-01-01",70,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-30T04:55:26.000Z","2017-08-30T04:55:26.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Open Philanthropy Project will consider its September 2016 University of Cape Town Geomagnetics Research grant a success given that Professor Gaunt completes at least 80% of the work",80,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-30T04:40:15.000Z","2017-08-30T04:40:15.000Z","2027-10-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Professor Trevor Gaunt will complete 80% of the work for the Open Philanthropy Project Geomagnetics Research grant by 2019-10-01",85,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-30T04:36:43.000Z","2017-08-30T04:36:43.000Z","2021-10-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Jeanne Marchig Centre a success ",70,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-29T19:18:36.000Z","2017-08-29T19:18:36.000Z","2027-04-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Humane Slaughter Association (HSA) a success",70,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-29T19:15:38.000Z","2017-08-29T19:15:38.000Z","2027-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to The Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (RSPCA) a major success",20,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-29T19:14:29.000Z","2017-08-29T19:14:29.000Z","2027-03-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Compassion in World Farming a success",80,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-29T19:00:27.000Z","2017-08-29T19:00:27.000Z","2027-03-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"CIWF USA will persuade at least one major poultry company to adopt a meaningful broiler chicken welfare policy",50,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-29T18:53:11.000Z","2017-08-29T18:53:11.000Z","2026-05-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Pastor Kenneth Glasgow’s pastor network will play an influential role in the upcoming legislative sessions (for some definition of “influential” that Open Philanthropy Project is comfortable with in retrospect)",60,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-29T18:50:20.000Z","2017-08-29T18:50:20.000Z","2026-08-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2016-10-01, the Prodigal Child Project will have made enough progress for more than 75 pastors to show significant support for incarceration reform (through, e.g., attending rallies, writing op-eds, giving sermons, or other actions)",40,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-29T18:45:19.000Z","2017-08-29T18:45:19.000Z","2018-10-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"On 2018-09-01, the Center for Human-Compatible AI will be spending at least $2 million a year, and will be considered by one or more of Open Philanthropy Project's relevant technical advisors to have a reasonably good reputation in the field",50,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-29T18:30:20.000Z","2017-08-29T18:30:20.000Z","2020-09-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Phone battery strength will increase with at least 100% in the next coming 5 years",60,,"jplattel","jplattel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-12-28T14:37:48.000Z","2011-12-28T14:37:48.000Z","2016-12-28T14:37:48.000Z"
"more earthquakes than normal in cascadia region",51,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-26T11:28:13.000Z","2017-08-26T11:28:13.000Z","2018-06-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Antifa goes one step ""too far"", commits act of unmistakeable err, is publicly roasted across the spectrum, and becomes much less prominent as a thing compared to 2017",49,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-17T22:49:47.000Z","2017-08-17T22:49:47.000Z","2027-08-17T12:00:00.000Z"
"ladybugs found to return to their birthplace, like salmon",50,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-13T12:57:52.000Z","2017-08-13T12:57:52.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Abstract objects: Platonism",39.3,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: platonism"" to the question ""Abstract objects: Platonism or nominalism?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2,400",33,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-30T05:53:28.000Z","2017-08-30T05:53:28.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Open Philanthropy Project will want to invest at least an additional $5 million in some of the animal welfare groups groups for their work in China after the two-year grant period is over",50,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-30T05:46:41.000Z","2017-08-30T05:46:41.000Z","2021-09-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Open Philanthropy Project will want to invest at least an additional $3 million in some of the animal welfare groups for their work in China after the two-year grant period is over",70,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-30T05:44:17.000Z","2017-08-30T05:44:17.000Z","2021-09-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will the BWA christmas party go ahead?",60,,"Alexander","Alexander","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-26T01:13:03.104Z","2020-11-26T01:13:03.097Z","2021-12-02T13:00:00.000Z"
"No a priori knowledge",18.4,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: no"" to the question ""A priori knowledge: yes or no?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Brighter Green a major success",5,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-30T05:35:35.000Z","2017-08-30T05:35:35.000Z","2026-10-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to support the work of Professor Deborah Cao a success",50,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-30T05:31:33.000Z","2017-08-30T05:31:33.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Artificial intelligence will be able to functionally replicate a human brain by 2085",50,,"Survey results","William Bainbridge","The median prediction from respondents was 2085.","From AI Impacts: ""In 2005 William Bainbridge reported on a survey of 26 contributors to Converging Technologies reports. The contributors were asked when a large number of applications would be developed, and how beneficial they would be (see Appendix 1). The survey produced 2085 as the median year in which “the computing power and scientific knowledge will exist to build machines that are functionally equivalent to the human brain”""","AI,survey","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Green Monday a major success",10,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-30T05:28:09.000Z","2017-08-30T05:28:09.000Z","2027-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Open Philanthropy Project will consider its December 2016 grant to Impact Justice for its Restorative Justice Project a cost-effective success on 2018-01-01",10,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-30T04:52:35.000Z","2017-08-30T04:52:35.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Professor Trevor Gaunt follows up or causes someone else to follow up with a proposal to widely effect positive policy change in this area [potential risks that geomagnetic storms] by 2027-10-01",20,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-30T04:42:46.000Z","2017-08-30T04:42:46.000Z","2029-10-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to The Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (RSPCA) a success",50,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-29T19:13:55.000Z","2017-08-29T19:13:55.000Z","2027-03-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to World Animal Protection a success",50,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-29T19:11:52.000Z","2017-08-29T19:11:52.000Z","2026-11-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"CIWF USA will play a major role in securing five or more new corporate cage-free pledges",75,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-29T18:54:14.000Z","2017-08-29T18:54:14.000Z","2026-05-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Open Philanthropy Project considers its December 2016 grant to Harvard University's Solar Geoengineering Research Program a success on 2027-01-01",80,,"OpenPhilUnofficial","OpenPhilUnofficial",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-29T18:20:11.000Z","2017-08-29T18:20:11.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"early election call in ontario",51,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-26T18:29:57.000Z","2017-08-26T18:29:57.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Koback will use collection of state voter roles to coordinate voter suppression activities",51,,"atomicspaceman","atomicspaceman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-12T22:24:04.000Z","2017-08-12T22:24:04.000Z","2018-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Social Engineering will go into standard practice for The Prison Reform Act in late 2027.",75,,"Harbinger1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T04:33:51.000Z","2011-11-17T04:33:51.000Z","2027-10-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"Sony will be bought by other company in 10 years.",10,,"spacemammoth","spacemammoth",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-08-02T10:56:43.000Z","2014-08-02T10:56:43.000Z","2024-08-02T10:56:43.000Z"
"Hover and Anna will argue less often than average family in the similar conditions",75,,"varman","varman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-08-09T19:53:54.000Z","2014-08-09T19:53:54.000Z","2015-08-09T22:00:00.000Z"
"If the ""impossible NASA EmDrive"" turns out to be working, it will be due to the emission of some kind of EM radiation (thermal radiation, microwave leakage, etc.) by the experimental setup, unaccounted as of now (08/10/2014). That is, the engine either do",80,,"maxikov","maxikov",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-08-10T07:59:01.000Z","2014-08-10T07:59:01.000Z","2024-08-10T07:59:01.000Z"
"Computers will never be able to simulate every aspect of human intelligence",41,,"Survey results","AI@50","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered ""Never""","From AI Impacts: ""A seemingly informal seven-question poll was taken of participants at the AI@50 conference in 2006. One question was “when will computers be able to simulate every aspect of human intelligence?”""","AI,survey","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2006-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2006-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Gangs and gang-affiliations will be outlawed and considered terrorist organisations by 2025.",80,,"Harbinger1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T02:16:19.000Z","2011-11-17T02:16:19.000Z","2025-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Matt will have submitted his app to the store by August 15.",50,,"cmessinger","cmessinger",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-07-23T22:53:05.000Z","2017-07-23T22:53:05.000Z","2017-08-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"The collective Internet (CI) will be available on a chip by 2025.",65,,"Harbinger1","Harbinger1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-17T01:37:54.000Z","2011-11-17T01:37:54.000Z","2025-06-30T20:25:00.000Z"
"no reports using hashtag #NotInMyTbay after 6 months for at least one week.",65,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-30T00:03:09.000Z","2017-06-30T00:03:09.000Z","2018-01-05T12:00:00.000Z"
"I have voted for the UK conservative party in a general election",55,,"penten","penten",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-23T09:20:06.000Z","2017-06-23T09:20:06.000Z","2030-06-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"AI will pass an online third grade test by 2030",50,,"Survey results","Seth Baum","This prediction expresses the median of survey responses to this question. The full set of survey responses was: 10% by 2020, 25% by 2025, 50% by 2030, 75% by 2045, and 90% by 2075.","From AI Impacts: ""Baum et al. surveyed 21 attendees of the AGI-09 conference, on AGI timelines.""","AI,survey","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Backdoor in crypto used by Signal/libsignal (revealed to public in 5 years)",49,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-12T02:55:50.000Z","2017-06-12T02:55:50.000Z","2021-06-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: Squat ATG 5×5 @ 2.00x bodyweight (measured immediately before the first set). Yes chalk, any shoes, no belt, no straps.",36,,"KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk","KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-11T14:36:26.000Z","2017-06-11T14:36:26.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Assuming no global catastrophe halts progress, what's the chance of the development of human-level machine intelligence by 2150?",90,,"Survey results","The Future of Humanity Institute","Across all respondents, the median year by which there would be a 90% chance of human-level machine intelligence was 2150.","From AI Impacts: ""The Future of Humanity Institute administered a survey in 2011 at their Winter Intelligence AGI impacts conference. The survey included the question: “Assuming no global catastrophe halts progress, by what year would you assign a 10%/50%/90% chance of the development of human-level machine intelligence? Feel free to answer ‘never’ if you believe such a milestone will never be reached.”""","AI,survey","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2011-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: Deadlift 1x5 @ 3x bodyweight (measured immediately before the set). Yes chalk, any shoes, no belt, no straps.",39,,"KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk","KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-11T14:23:53.000Z","2017-06-11T14:23:53.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: Deadlift 1x5 @ 3x bodyweight (measured immediately before the set). Yes chalk, any shoes, no belt, no straps.",30,,"KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk","KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-11T14:25:35.000Z","2017-06-11T14:23:53.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: 5x5 overhead press @ bodyweight (measured immediately before first set)",43,,"KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk","KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-11T14:15:16.000Z","2017-06-11T14:15:16.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: I have a bout ((chess)boxing, MMA, kickboxing, or otherwise) (amateur, white collar, pro, or otherwise).",35,,"KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk","KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-11T14:12:11.000Z","2017-06-11T14:12:11.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: At any point, on any credible (judged by me) scales, my mass is <= 55.0kg (121.25lb).",18,,"KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk","KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-11T14:09:24.000Z","2017-06-11T14:09:24.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: At any point, on any credible (judged by me) scales, my mass is <= 60.0kg (132.28lb).",31,,"KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk","KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-11T14:08:07.000Z","2017-06-11T14:08:07.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will a randomly chosen person cryopreserved between 2020 and 2030 be revived?",10,,"holomanga","holomanga","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-27T13:06:37.247Z","2020-11-27T13:06:37.238Z","2200-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will a randomly chosen person cryopreserved using fixatives while fixatives are available be revived?",15,,"holomanga","holomanga","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-27T13:09:37.932Z","2020-11-27T13:09:37.924Z","2200-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will a randomly chosen person cryopreserved using vitrification while fixatives are available be revived? ",8,,"holomanga","holomanga","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-27T13:10:35.124Z","2020-11-27T13:10:35.117Z","2200-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will a randomly chosen person cryopreserved without using fixatives while fixatives are available be revived?",8,,"holomanga","holomanga","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-27T13:11:55.383Z","2020-11-27T13:11:55.373Z","2200-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will a randomly chosen person cryopreserved by the Cryonics Institute while both CI and Alcor exist be revived?",8,,"holomanga","holomanga","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-27T13:12:57.095Z","2020-11-27T13:12:57.090Z","2200-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will a randomly chosen person cryopreserved by Alcor while both CI and Alcor exist be revived?",12,,"holomanga","holomanga","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-27T13:13:17.546Z","2020-11-27T13:13:17.540Z","2200-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: At any point, on any credible (judged by me) scales, my mass is <= 62.5kg (137.79lb).",47,,"KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk","KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-11T14:06:33.000Z","2017-06-11T14:06:33.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: At any point, on any credible (judged by me) scales, my mass is <= 65.0kg (143.3lb).",54,,"KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk","KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-11T14:03:31.000Z","2017-06-11T14:03:31.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Assuming no global catastrophe halts progress, what's the chance of the development of human-level machine intelligence by 2050?",50,,"Survey results","The Future of Humanity Institute","Across all respondents, the median year by which there would be a 50% chance of human-level machine intelligence was 2050.","From AI Impacts: ""The Future of Humanity Institute administered a survey in 2011 at their Winter Intelligence AGI impacts conference. The survey included the question: “Assuming no global catastrophe halts progress, by what year would you assign a 10%/50%/90% chance of the development of human-level machine intelligence? Feel free to answer ‘never’ if you believe such a milestone will never be reached.”""","AI,survey","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2011-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Amber Rudd next Prime Minister of the UK (post whoever wins #GE2017",19,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-09T04:05:08.000Z","2017-06-09T04:05:08.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I have illness",50,,"cml5814","cml5814",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-02T01:34:37.000Z","2017-08-02T01:34:37.000Z","2017-08-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"at least one of the two new roundabouts in regina are replaced by traffic lights/normal intersections",60,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-07-27T12:13:05.000Z","2017-07-27T12:13:04.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Assuming beneficial political and economic development and that no global catastrophe halts progress, what's the chance of the development of artificial intelligence that is roughly as good as humans (or better, perhaps unevenly) at science, mathematics, engineering and programming by 2070?",90,,"Interview median","Alexander Kruel","AI Impacts calculated summary statistics of the twenty respondents who answered this question. The full results were: 10% by 2025, 50% by 2035, and 90% by 2070.","In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it.","AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Human-level AI by 2040",50,,"Survey results","Vincent Muller, Nick Bostrom","Across all respondents, the median year by which there would be a 50% chance of human-level machine intelligence was 2040.","From AI Impacts: ""Vincent Müller and Nick Bostrom of FHI conducted a poll of four groups of AI experts in 2012-13. According to Bostrom, the participants were asked when they expect “human-level machine intelligence” to be developed, defined as “one that can carry out most human professions at least as well as a typical human”.""","AI,survey","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"What's the chance that HLMI has on balance bad long run impact on humanity?",10,,"Survey results","AI Impacts","The probability expressed in this prediction is a median of survey responses to this question.","The 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI is a survey of machine learning researchers that AI Impacts ran in collaboration with others in 2016. The exact question researchers were asked was: ""Assume for the purpose of this question that HLMI will at some point exist. How positive or negative do you expect the overall impact of this to be on humanity, in the long run? Please answer by saying how probable you find the following kinds of impact, with probabilities adding to 100%:"" The options were: ""Extremely good, on balance good, more or less neutral, on balance bad, and extremely bad (e.g. human extinction)"". ","AI,survey","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2016-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"What's the chance that HLMI has neutral long run impact on humanity?",20,,"Survey results","AI Impacts","The probability expressed in this prediction is a median of survey responses to this question.","The 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI is a survey of machine learning researchers that AI Impacts ran in collaboration with others in 2016. The exact question researchers were asked was: ""Assume for the purpose of this question that HLMI will at some point exist. How positive or negative do you expect the overall impact of this to be on humanity, in the long run? Please answer by saying how probable you find the following kinds of impact, with probabilities adding to 100%:"" The options were: ""Extremely good, on balance good, more or less neutral, on balance bad, and extremely bad (e.g. human extinction)"". ","AI,survey","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2016-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"There will be no border in 200 years.",10,,"spacemammoth","spacemammoth",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-08-13T14:39:00.000Z","2014-08-13T14:39:00.000Z","2214-08-13T14:39:00.000Z"
"First artificial intelligent teacher in 10 years.",10,,"spacemammoth","spacemammoth",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-08-13T14:40:03.000Z","2014-08-13T14:40:03.000Z","2024-08-13T14:44:46.000Z"
"First artificial intelligent teacher in 10 years.",40,,"spacemammoth","spacemammoth",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-08-13T14:45:00.000Z","2014-08-13T14:40:03.000Z","2024-08-13T14:44:46.000Z"
"Human-level AI by 2040",50,,"Rich Sutton","Rich Sutton","This prediction was on AI Impacts' list of analyses of time to human-level AI: https://aiimpacts.org/list-of-analyses-of-time-to-human-level-ai/","From AI Impacts: ""Sutton places a 50% chance on human-level AI by 2040, based largely on hardware extrapolation and the view that software has a 1/2 chance of following within a decade of sufficient hardware.""","AI,hlai","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Harrison Ford will have more than 5 minutes of screentime in The Expendables 3",70,,"Grognor","Grognor",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-08-21T00:59:38.000Z","2014-08-21T00:59:38.000Z","2014-11-28T17:00:00.000Z"
"conditional
 on DOI: 10.1037/0022-3514.95.1.128 being replicated with a non 
W.E.I.R.D. sample of test subjects & n>=400, test subjects will 
be more or less accurate in assessment of likelihood of 
assistance given (prdcted M>24.5 or M<16.6)",60,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-07-16T14:49:28.000Z","2017-07-16T14:49:28.000Z","2022-01-02T21:00:00.000Z"
"I get my damage deposit back for my apartment (conditional on moving out / deadline extended as needed)",11,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-07-03T13:01:36.000Z","2017-07-03T13:01:36.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the UK, before 2022, will there will be a Question Time guest whose main platform is the return of the capital punishment?",40,,"nathanpmyoung","nathanpmyoung","","Will there be a guest whose main platform supports the return of capital punishment? This might be their party, newspaper, political organisation or think tank.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-05T20:41:27.396Z","2021-01-05T20:28:32.336Z","2022-01-05T00:00:00.000Z"
"In the UK, before 2022, will there will be a Question Time guest whose main platform is the return of the capital punishment?",0,,"nathanpmyoung","nathanpmyoung","","Will there be a guest whose main platform supports the return of capital punishment? This might be their party, newspaper, political organisation or think tank.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-05T20:41:20.527Z","2021-01-05T20:28:32.336Z","2022-01-05T00:00:00.000Z"
"In the UK, before 2022, will there will be a Question Time guest whose main platform is the return of the capital punishment?",40,,"nathanpmyoung","nathanpmyoung","","Will there be a guest whose main platform supports the return of capital punishment? This might be their party, newspaper, political organisation or think tank.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-05T20:28:32.343Z","2021-01-05T20:28:32.336Z","2022-01-05T00:00:00.000Z"
"In the UK, before 2022, will there will be a Question Time guest whose main platform is the return of the capital punishment?",40,,"nathanpmyoung","nathanpmyoung","","Will there be a guest whose main platform supports the return of capital punishment? This might be their party, newspaper, political organisation or think tank.","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-06T17:58:47.436Z","2021-01-05T20:28:32.336Z","2022-01-05T00:00:00.000Z"
"By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: Squat ATG 5×5 @ 1.75x bodyweight (measured immediately before the first set). Yes chalk, any shoes, no belt, no straps.",55,,"KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk","KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-11T14:32:10.000Z","2017-06-11T14:32:10.000Z","2018-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Anita Sarkeesian has read the Qur'an",49,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-08T11:10:05.000Z","2017-06-08T11:10:05.000Z","2017-06-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"Head of state of a major developed country will be assassinated",51,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-06T21:10:43.000Z","2017-06-06T21:10:43.000Z","2022-06-06T12:00:00.000Z"
"NGE: conditional on there being any live-action, it will be in _4.0_.",70,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-04T21:01:56.000Z","2011-11-04T21:01:55.000Z","2018-01-01T19:58:30.000Z"
"How much progress did we make in X subfield of AI research in the 20 years before 2015, compared to how far we have to go to reach human level abilities? Subfield: Big data analysis",5,,"David Kelley","Robin Hanson",,"From AI Impacts: ""Robin Hanson has asked experts in various social contexts to estimate how far we’ve come in their own subfield of AI research in the last twenty years, compared to how far we have to go to reach human level abilities.""","AI,hanson-ai-expert-survey","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"How much progress did we make in X subfield of AI research in the 20 years before 2015, compared to how far we have to go to reach human level abilities? Subfield: Constraint reasoning",10,,"Francesca Rossi","Robin Hanson",,"From AI Impacts: ""Robin Hanson has asked experts in various social contexts to estimate how far we’ve come in their own subfield of AI research in the last twenty years, compared to how far we have to go to reach human level abilities.""","AI,hanson-ai-expert-survey","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"KPCB’s Internet Trends Report will hit 1,800 pages by 2020",34,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-01T13:03:54.000Z","2017-06-01T13:03:54.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"More than 50% of households who have motorized vehicles in saskatchewan have at least 1 bicycle with an electric motor attached. ",49,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-31T22:25:44.000Z","2017-05-31T22:25:44.000Z","2027-05-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"NGE: There will be live-action at some point in _Rebuild_.",40,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-11-04T21:05:23.000Z","2011-11-04T21:05:23.000Z","2018-01-01T17:12:23.000Z"
"How much progress did we make in X subfield of AI research in the 20 years before 2014, compared to how far we have to go to reach human level abilities? Subfield: Early human vision processing",5,,"Timothy Meese","Robin Hanson",,"From AI Impacts: ""Robin Hanson has asked experts in various social contexts to estimate how far we’ve come in their own subfield of AI research in the last twenty years, compared to how far we have to go to reach human level abilities.""","AI,hanson-ai-expert-survey","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"More than 50% of households in saskatchewan have at least 1 bicycle with an electric motor attached.",35,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-31T16:43:37.000Z","2017-05-31T16:43:37.000Z","2027-05-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least 2 of the popular news aggregation services (Feedly, Inoreader, Digg Reader, NewsBlur, The Old Reader) will use their RSS aggregation apps as their main source of revenue, sustaining their business. ",95,,"Emmanuel M. Smith","Emmanuel M. Smith",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-26T20:55:18.000Z","2017-05-26T20:55:18.000Z","2021-05-02T08:00:00.000Z"
"At least 2 of the popular news aggregation services (Feedly, Inoreader, Digg Reader, NewsBlur, The Old Reader) will use their RSS aggregation apps as their main source of revenue, sustaining their business. ",97,,"Emmanuel M. Smith","Emmanuel M. Smith","Feedly, NewsBlur, Innoreader, etc. currently have premium subscription models which offer additional RSS features. 
It's unlikely that this would change in the next year.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-02-15T18:37:34.072Z","2017-05-26T20:55:18.000Z","2021-05-02T08:00:00.000Z"
"How much progress did we make in X subfield of AI research in the 20 years before 2014, compared to how far we have to go to reach human level abilities? Subfield: Robotic grasping manipulation",1,,"Aaron Dollar","Robin Hanson",,"From AI Impacts: ""Robin Hanson has asked experts in various social contexts to estimate how far we’ve come in their own subfield of AI research in the last twenty years, compared to how far we have to go to reach human level abilities.""","AI,hanson-ai-expert-survey","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"How much progress did we make in X subfield of AI research in the 20 years before 2013, compared to how far we have to go to reach human level abilities? Subfield: Natural Language Processing",20,,"Claire Cardie","Robin Hanson",,"From AI Impacts: ""Robin Hanson has asked experts in various social contexts to estimate how far we’ve come in their own subfield of AI research in the last twenty years, compared to how far we have to go to reach human level abilities.""","AI,hanson-ai-expert-survey","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"How much progress did we make in X subfield of AI research in the 20 years before 2012, compared to how far we have to go to reach human level abilities? Subfield: Analogical reasoning",5,,"Melanie Mitchell","Robin Hanson",,"From AI Impacts: ""Robin Hanson has asked experts in various social contexts to estimate how far we’ve come in their own subfield of AI research in the last twenty years, compared to how far we have to go to reach human level abilities.""","AI,hanson-ai-expert-survey","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Apple is going to discontinue iPod classic this year",50,,"spacemammoth","spacemammoth",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-08-02T13:05:20.000Z","2014-08-02T13:05:20.000Z","2015-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Once we have ""well-trained dog"" level AI, what's the probability of human-level AI within 5 years?",10,,"Richard Carrier","Alexander Kruel","See the prediction source for Richard's full explanation","In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it.","AI,ai-interviews","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Somewhere in Air France IT, there will be a project or a study using Golang within 6 month after the Brown Bag Lunch of March 2016 by Anaethelion",75,,"Jean","Jean",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-27T14:29:00.000Z","2016-01-27T14:29:00.000Z","2016-08-27T14:29:00.000Z"
"Parents will find a reasonn to hate their new neighborhood (in East Layton) within 3 years",15,,"Ham Nox","Ham Nox",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-08-02T21:13:22.000Z","2014-08-02T21:13:22.000Z","2017-08-02T21:13:22.000Z"
"Path cc",50,,"Gstarr310","Gstarr310",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-21T11:13:39.000Z","2016-01-21T11:13:39.000Z","2016-01-21T17:30:00.000Z"
"Will Wright to do an IAmA on reddit by 2025",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-21T01:23:51.000Z","2015-07-21T01:23:51.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"New York Times to have higher readership in 2025 than 2015",35,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-21T01:37:59.000Z","2015-07-21T01:37:59.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Christopher P. McKay to do IAmA on reddit by 2025",51,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-21T03:02:13.000Z","2015-07-21T03:02:13.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Verge to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-21T20:47:25.000Z","2015-07-21T20:47:25.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Prediction: Soon after the bitcoin-classic fork succeeds, layoffs will start at BlockStream.",4,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-17T18:40:33.000Z","2016-01-17T18:40:33.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"On average, there will be more measles cases in the last half of the 2010s than the first half of the 2010s",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-21T01:25:19.000Z","2015-07-21T01:25:19.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Perceptual experience: qualia theory",12.2,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: qualia theory"" to the question ""Perceptual experience: disjunctivism, qualia theory, representationalism, or sense-datum theory?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Perceptual experience: disjunctivism",11,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: disjunctivism"" to the question ""Perceptual experience: disjunctivism, qualia theory, representationalism, or sense-datum theory?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Normative ethics: consequentialism",23.6,,"Survey results","PhilPapers","The probability expressed in this prediction is the percent of respondents who answered: ""Accept or lean toward: consequentialism"" to the question ""Normative ethics: deontology, consequentialism, or virtue ethics?""","The PhilPapers Survey was a survey of professional philosophers and others on their philosophical views, carried out in November 2009. The Survey was taken by 3226 respondents, including 1803 philosophy faculty members and/or PhDs and 829 philosophy graduate students.","philosophy,PhilPapers","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"AI will be able to produce science that would win a Nobel prize by 2045",50,,"Survey results","Seth Baum","This prediction expresses the median of survey responses to this question. The full set of survey responses was: 10% by 2020, 25% by 2030, 50% by 2045, 75% by 2080, and 90% by 2100.","From AI Impacts: ""Baum et al. surveyed 21 attendees of the AGI-09 conference, on AGI timelines.""","AI,survey","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"AI will pass a turing test by 2040",50,,"Survey results","Seth Baum","This prediction expresses the median of survey responses to this question. The full set of survey responses was: 10% by 2020, 25% by 2030, 50% by 2040, 75% by 2050, and 90% by 2075.","From AI Impacts: ""Baum et al. surveyed 21 attendees of the AGI-09 conference, on AGI timelines.""","AI,survey","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2009-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Assuming no global catastrophe halts progress, what's the chance of the development of human-level machine intelligence by 2028?",10,,"Survey results","The Future of Humanity Institute","Across all respondents, the median year by which there would be a 10% chance of human-level machine intelligence was 2028.","From AI Impacts: ""The Future of Humanity Institute administered a survey in 2011 at their Winter Intelligence AGI impacts conference. The survey included the question: “Assuming no global catastrophe halts progress, by what year would you assign a 10%/50%/90% chance of the development of human-level machine intelligence? Feel free to answer ‘never’ if you believe such a milestone will never be reached.”""","AI,survey","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2011-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Assuming beneficial political and economic development and that no global catastrophe halts progress, what's the chance of the development of artificial intelligence that is roughly as good as humans (or better, perhaps unevenly) at science, mathematics, engineering and programming by 2035?",50,,"Interview median","Alexander Kruel","AI Impacts calculated summary statistics of the twenty respondents who answered this question. The full results were: 10% by 2025, 50% by 2035, and 90% by 2070.","In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it.","AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Assuming beneficial political and economic development and that no global catastrophe halts progress, what's the chance of the development of artificial intelligence that is roughly as good as humans (or better, perhaps unevenly) at science, mathematics, engineering and programming by 2025?",10,,"Interview median","Alexander Kruel","AI Impacts calculated summary statistics of the twenty respondents who answered this question. The full results were: 10% by 2025, 50% by 2035, and 90% by 2070.","In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it.","AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I'll be programming for Android OS within a year",60,,"spacemammoth","spacemammoth",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-08-03T04:30:11.000Z","2014-08-03T04:30:11.000Z","2015-08-03T04:30:11.000Z"
"I will be going out with a girl next year.",8,,"spacemammoth","spacemammoth",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-08-03T05:59:52.000Z","2014-08-03T05:59:52.000Z","2015-07-02T03:00:00.000Z"
"League of Legends will be still be the most popular game in the world by 2018",70,,"arghzoo","arghzoo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-08-06T02:03:59.000Z","2014-08-06T02:03:59.000Z","2018-06-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Serial killer found to be operating in Thunder Bay in 2017, causing at least 1 death in Thunder Bay in 2017",49,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-26T17:20:44.000Z","2017-05-26T17:20:44.000Z","2026-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Human-level AI by 2075",90,,"Survey results","Vincent Muller, Nick Bostrom","Across all respondents, the median year by which there would be a 90% chance of human-level machine intelligence was 2075.","From AI Impacts: ""Vincent Müller and Nick Bostrom of FHI conducted a poll of four groups of AI experts in 2012-13. According to Bostrom, the participants were asked when they expect “human-level machine intelligence” to be developed, defined as “one that can carry out most human professions at least as well as a typical human”.""","AI,survey","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Human-level AI by 2022",10,,"Survey results","Vincent Muller, Nick Bostrom","Across all respondents, the median year by which there would be a 10% chance of human-level machine intelligence was 2022.","From AI Impacts: ""Vincent Müller and Nick Bostrom of FHI conducted a poll of four groups of AI experts in 2012-13. According to Bostrom, the participants were asked when they expect “human-level machine intelligence” to be developed, defined as “one that can carry out most human professions at least as well as a typical human”.""","AI,survey","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"What's the chance that HLMI has extremely bad (e.g. human extinction) long run impact on humanity?",5,,"Survey results","AI Impacts","The probability expressed in this prediction is a median of survey responses to this question.","The 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI is a survey of machine learning researchers that AI Impacts ran in collaboration with others in 2016. The exact question researchers were asked was: ""Assume for the purpose of this question that HLMI will at some point exist. How positive or negative do you expect the overall impact of this to be on humanity, in the long run? Please answer by saying how probable you find the following kinds of impact, with probabilities adding to 100%:"" The options were: ""Extremely good, on balance good, more or less neutral, on balance bad, and extremely bad (e.g. human extinction)"". ","AI,survey","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2016-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"What's the chance that HLMI has on balance good long run impact on humanity?",25,,"Survey results","AI Impacts","The probability expressed in this prediction is a median of survey responses to this question.","The 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI is a survey of machine learning researchers that AI Impacts ran in collaboration with others in 2016. The exact question researchers were asked was: ""Assume for the purpose of this question that HLMI will at some point exist. How positive or negative do you expect the overall impact of this to be on humanity, in the long run? Please answer by saying how probable you find the following kinds of impact, with probabilities adding to 100%:"" The options were: ""Extremely good, on balance good, more or less neutral, on balance bad, and extremely bad (e.g. human extinction)"". ","AI,survey","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2016-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"What's the chance that HLMI has extremely good long run impact on humanity?",20,,"Survey results","AI Impacts","The probability expressed in this prediction is a median of survey responses to this question.","The 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI is a survey of machine learning researchers that AI Impacts ran in collaboration with others in 2016. The exact question researchers were asked was: ""Assume for the purpose of this question that HLMI will at some point exist. How positive or negative do you expect the overall impact of this to be on humanity, in the long run? Please answer by saying how probable you find the following kinds of impact, with probabilities adding to 100%:"" The options were: ""Extremely good, on balance good, more or less neutral, on balance bad, and extremely bad (e.g. human extinction)"". ","AI,survey","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2016-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"How much progress did we make in X subfield of AI research in the 20 years before 2017, compared to how far we have to go to reach human level abilities? Subfield: Human-understandable explanation",0.5,,"Thore Husfeldt","Robin Hanson",,"From AI Impacts: ""Robin Hanson has asked experts in various social contexts to estimate how far we’ve come in their own subfield of AI research in the last twenty years, compared to how far we have to go to reach human level abilities.""","AI,hanson-ai-expert-survey","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"How much progress did we make in X subfield of AI research in the 20 years before 2016, compared to how far we have to go to reach human level abilities? Subfield: Robotics",5,,"Jeff Legault","Robin Hanson",,"From AI Impacts: ""Robin Hanson has asked experts in various social contexts to estimate how far we’ve come in their own subfield of AI research in the last twenty years, compared to how far we have to go to reach human level abilities.""","AI,hanson-ai-expert-survey","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"How much progress did we make in X subfield of AI research in the 20 years before 2013, compared to how far we have to go to reach human level abilities? Subfield: Constraint satisfaction",100,,"Boi Faltings","Robin Hanson",,"From AI Impacts: ""Robin Hanson has asked experts in various social contexts to estimate how far we’ve come in their own subfield of AI research in the last twenty years, compared to how far we have to go to reach human level abilities.""","AI,hanson-ai-expert-survey","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"How much progress did we make in X subfield of AI research in the 20 years before 2013, compared to how far we have to go to reach human level abilities? Subfield: Computer-assisted training",1,,"Wendy Hall","Robin Hanson",,"From AI Impacts: ""Robin Hanson has asked experts in various social contexts to estimate how far we’ve come in their own subfield of AI research in the last twenty years, compared to how far we have to go to reach human level abilities.""","AI,hanson-ai-expert-survey","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"How much progress did we make in X subfield of AI research in the 20 years before 2012, compared to how far we have to go to reach human level abilities? Subfield: Knowledge representation",10,,"Murray Shanahan","Robin Hanson",,"From AI Impacts: ""Robin Hanson has asked experts in various social contexts to estimate how far we’ve come in their own subfield of AI research in the last twenty years, compared to how far we have to go to reach human level abilities.""","AI,hanson-ai-expert-survey","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Once we have ""well-trained dog"" level AI, what's the probability of human-level AI within 20 years?",50,,"Richard Carrier","Alexander Kruel","See the prediction source for Richard's full explanation","In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it.","AI,ai-interviews","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Once we have ""well-trained dog"" level AI, what's the probability of human-level AI within 10 years?",25,,"Richard Carrier","Alexander Kruel","See the prediction source for Richard's full explanation","In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it.","AI,ai-interviews","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Escribiré al menos dos historias cortas ",60,,"acradis","acradis",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-25T10:19:49.000Z","2015-07-25T10:19:49.000Z","2015-08-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Veré 6 películas en una semana",80,,"acradis","acradis",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-25T12:09:32.000Z","2015-07-25T12:09:32.000Z","2015-08-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Inflation adjusted GDP in California will be statistically significantly less than the rest of the U.S. over the next 10 years. Paired ANOVA, p < 0.05, based on the same source that led to this data or equivalent http://www.lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/D",5,,"Porejide","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-25T22:52:04.000Z","2015-07-25T22:52:04.000Z","2025-07-25T22:52:04.000Z"
"Mission Indradhanush will provide  full  immunization  coverage  in  Bharat from 65% in 2014 to at least 90% children in the next 5 years.",75,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-12T13:56:49.000Z","2016-01-12T13:56:49.000Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"1 000 million tons of cement production by 2025.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-15T12:15:48.000Z","2015-09-15T12:15:48.000Z","2026-01-01T10:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a greater than 97.5% concordance btwn my WGS data and 23&me SNP calls. ",75,,"Porejide","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-15T22:30:40.000Z","2015-09-15T22:30:40.000Z","2016-01-15T22:30:40.000Z"
"Rand Paul to do IAmA by 2016",75,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T11:11:46.000Z","2015-07-28T11:11:46.000Z","2017-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"What's the chance of “a civilization-ending nuclear war” (or one that causes extinction) by 2117?",0.3,,"Ben Todd / 80,000 Hours","Ben Todd / 80,000 Hours","Exact prediction: ""Probably at or above 0.3%"". It’s also worth noting that Todd uses the phrases “permanently end civilization” and “civilization-ending nuclear war” here, but the article and some other estimates in it are focused on extinction, rather than other scenarios like permanent collapse. Hence the scenarios Todd is estimating (or broadly discussing) the risk of are unclear.",,"nuclear,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2017-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2117-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"A substance will be found with a melting point of at least 7,520 F by 2030. ",65,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-28T17:36:12.000Z","2015-07-28T17:36:12.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Dodger will not move out f GHTT",80,,"brian1314","brian1314",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-29T06:53:42.000Z","2015-07-29T06:53:42.000Z","2015-08-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 4.75% GDP growth rate for Việt Nam in 2015- 2024.",5,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-04T02:40:07.000Z","2016-01-04T02:40:07.000Z","2024-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will Puerto Rico be a state before 1st Jan 2023",5,,"nathanpmyoung","nathanpmyoung","","A US State!","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-05T23:27:15.222Z","2021-01-05T23:27:15.216Z","2022-01-05T00:00:00.000Z"
"AI will be able to perform 80% of the jobs that humans do as well or better than humans by 2100",90,,"Nils Nilsson","Alexander Kruel","Nilsson provided a 10%, 50%, and 90% estimate: 10% by 2030, 50% by 2050, 90% by 2100","In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it.","AI,ai-interviews","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"What is the annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from a global pandemic?",0.0040008000000000005,,"P Millett & A Snyder-Beattie","P Millett & A Snyder-Beattie","Exact prediction: 0.008% to 0.0000016%",,"biorisk,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2017-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"What is the annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from natural causes? (using only the information that Homo sapiens has existed at least 200,000 years)",0.00007140000000000001,,"Snyder-Beattie et al","Snyder-Beattie et al","Extract: ""Using the fact that humans have survived at least 200 kyr, we can infer that the annual probability of human extinction from natural causes is less than 1 in 87,000 with modest confidence (0.1 relative likelihood) and less than 1 in 14,000 with near certainty""",,"natural x risk,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-07-30T00:00:00.000Z","2019-07-30T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will Donald Trump be President on Jan 21nd 2021",0.5,,"nathanpmyoung","nathanpmyoung","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-06T12:59:02.660Z","2021-01-06T12:59:02.652Z","2021-01-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will Donald Trump be President on Jan 21nd 2021",0,,"nathanpmyoung","nathanpmyoung","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-06T17:58:09.001Z","2021-01-06T12:59:02.652Z","2021-01-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will Donald Trump be President on Jan 21nd 2021",0.5,,"nathanpmyoung","nathanpmyoung","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-06T17:58:23.553Z","2021-01-06T12:59:02.652Z","2021-01-26T00:00:00.000Z"
"Total existential risk till 2120 if there definitely wouldn't be a great power war during that time",15.3,,"Toby Ord","Toby Ord","""Consider your own estimate of how much existential risk there is over the next hundred years. How much of this would disappear if you knew that the great powers would not go to war with each other over that time? It is impossible to be precise, but I’d imagine that an appreciable fraction would disappear - something like a tenth of the existential risk over that time."" (15.3 = 17 * 0.9; Ord places ~17% probability on x risk)",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2120-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I'll finish reading a book by the end of the month.",75,,"eusmagnus7","eusmagnus7",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-19T04:48:34.000Z","2017-05-19T04:48:34.000Z","2017-06-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"First artificial intelligent sex worker in 10 years",50,,"spacemammoth","spacemammoth",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-08-13T14:41:14.000Z","2014-08-13T14:41:14.000Z","2024-08-13T14:41:14.000Z"
"I will still be using the same physical new macbook pro that I just bought on August 20, 2018, contingent on still being in my school program",70,,"Porejide","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-08-20T21:17:48.000Z","2014-08-20T21:17:48.000Z","2018-08-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"“Total anthropogenic [existential] risk” by 2120",17,,"Toby Ord","Toby Ord","All core predictions from The Precipice are intended as magnitudal estimates and not explicit guides.",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2120-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"
Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 4.82% GDP growth rate for Indonesia in 2015- 2024. ",10,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-04T02:31:40.000Z","2016-01-04T02:31:40.000Z","2024-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"5-sigma evidence of neutrinoless double beta decay by January 1, 2025",52,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-26T12:19:45.000Z","2015-10-26T12:19:45.000Z","2025-01-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"Benjamin Netanyahu's proposed legislation to implement mandatory minimum sentences for stone throwers will still be there two months after the Knife Intifada has ceased.",60,,"mojo.rhythm","mojo.rhythm",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-23T01:12:20.000Z","2015-10-23T01:12:20.000Z","2016-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"If the Repblicans lose the 2024 Election, they will challenge the counting of Electoral Votes.",60,,"nathanpmyoung","nathanpmyoung","","When the Electoral Votes are counted in early January, despite being ratified by the states and any court challenges having been resolved, a Senator and Representative will challenge the count, as happened in early 2021.","counting electoral votes","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-08T15:00:21.501Z","2021-01-08T15:00:21.494Z","2025-01-08T00:00:00.000Z"
"If the Repblicans lose the 2024 Election, they will challenge the counting of Electoral Votes.",40,,"nathanpmyoung","nathanpmyoung","","When the Electoral Votes are counted in early January, despite being ratified by the states and any court challenges having been resolved, a Senator and Representative will challenge the count, as happened in early 2021.","counting electoral votes","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-08T15:27:08.870Z","2021-01-08T15:00:21.494Z","2025-01-08T00:00:00.000Z"
"At least one Dutch citizen will be penalized for downloading/spreading copyrighted material using a P2P system using a device located in the Netherlands before the end of 2016. A case started before 2017, but finished in the year 2017 counts as well.",55,,"akrasib","akrasib",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-22T08:58:50.000Z","2015-10-22T08:58:50.000Z","2017-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"At least one Dutch citizen will be penalized for downloading/spreading copyrighted material using a P2P system on a device located in the Netherlands before the end of 2015. A case started before 2016, but finished in the year 2016 counts as well.",10,,"akrasib","akrasib",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-22T08:57:48.000Z","2015-10-22T08:57:48.000Z","2016-01-01T11:00:00.000Z"
"If North Korea has another underground nuclear explosion, it will result in an earthquake in the nearby Pacific rim.",75,,"Tommy","Tommy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-01T10:27:19.000Z","2017-05-01T10:27:19.000Z","2017-05-01T14:00:00.000Z"
"W3C VCTF goes to CR",41,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-04-30T23:05:50.000Z","2017-04-30T23:05:50.000Z","2018-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Microsoft buys Cloudflare",51,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-04-24T18:09:50.000Z","2017-04-24T18:09:50.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Iran will provide nuclear weapons to a terrorist group that will use one of them against israel or the united states",2,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-06T21:17:21.000Z","2017-06-06T21:17:21.000Z","2022-06-06T12:00:00.000Z"
"70 tests, chi-square on {days of wearing sunglasses,I have headache the next day} results in a statistically significant relationship at p=0.05 level",37,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-06T16:56:56.000Z","2017-06-06T16:56:56.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Merlon intelligence will reach a billion dollar valuation in 5 years",20,,"Peteris","Peteris",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-05T19:49:43.000Z","2017-06-05T19:49:43.000Z","2022-06-05T19:49:43.000Z"
"Moore's law stops : bitcoin hashrate has not doubled in past 18 months.",70,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-06-03T00:23:57.000Z","2017-06-03T00:23:57.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Exalted 3rd Edition will not be published before January 1st 2015.",60,,"chalicier","chalicier",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-06T19:33:17.000Z","2014-09-06T19:33:17.000Z","2015-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Investor, producer or high-ranking internal official of Game of Thrones staff blames shorter season on piracy.",75,,"shm","shm",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-24T10:49:05.000Z","2017-05-24T10:49:05.000Z","2017-08-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"The average age of the United States senate will be 48 years old by 2035",25,,"jprettner","jprettner",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-18T16:38:51.000Z","2017-05-18T16:38:51.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The fanfiction ""Hogwarts School of Prayer and Miracles"" will be revealed as satire/parody within one year.",90,,"sigmaleph","sigmaleph",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-23T03:33:48.000Z","2014-09-23T03:33:48.000Z","2015-09-23T03:33:48.000Z"
"There is a YMCA in San Francisco with a gender neutral changing room.",95,,"Somni","Somni",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-10T03:25:54.000Z","2017-05-10T03:25:54.000Z","2017-08-10T03:25:54.000Z"
"3-4 miners do 80%+ of mining for bitcoin [and any other mined cryptocurrency with bigger marketcap in USD than bitcoin]",59,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-01T11:58:03.000Z","2017-05-01T11:58:03.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"nasdaq composite <= 3800 at any point in 2017",49,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-04-15T16:06:19.000Z","2017-04-15T16:06:19.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"10,000 CAD$ / bitcoin on non-localbitcoins exchange shown on bitcoinwatch (or equivalent if bitcoinwatch goes down)",51,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-04-14T20:56:31.000Z","2017-04-14T20:56:31.000Z","2017-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"Brad Trost becomes prime minister of canada",13,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-04-12T20:15:18.000Z","2017-04-12T20:15:18.000Z","2074-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on me asking Kyle Ivey for the source code to QC Bus Chaser app source code under a license respecting the 4 freedoms, Kyle provides the source code under this license.",11,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-04-10T17:15:28.000Z","2017-04-10T17:15:28.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Great Barrier Reef will be 90 % bleached by 2025.",80,,"nortil","nortil",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-04-10T08:24:07.000Z","2017-04-10T08:24:07.000Z","2017-04-10T20:23:00.000Z"
"Vamos ter uma v0 do dash até começo de dezembro",60,,"juliomarcos","juliomarcos",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-05T13:47:36.000Z","2015-08-05T13:47:36.000Z","2015-12-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 6.98% GDP growth rate for Bharat for 2015- 2024.",10,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-04T02:24:36.000Z","2016-01-04T02:24:36.000Z","2024-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"FireEye's stock price will go above $25 before January 1, 2017",42,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-09T20:32:13.000Z","2016-01-02T03:48:10.000Z","2017-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"FireEye's stock price will go above $25 before January 1, 2017",68,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-02T03:48:10.000Z","2016-01-02T03:48:10.000Z","2017-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The CBOE's stock price will go above $75 before January 1, 2017",85,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-02T03:09:40.000Z","2016-01-02T03:09:40.000Z","2017-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"The CBOE's stock price will go above $75 before January 1, 2017",75,,"Tapetum-Lucidum","Tapetum-Lucidum",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-09T20:39:09.000Z","2016-01-02T03:09:40.000Z","2017-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Swift will be a more popular choice than Rust for writing REST APIs",100,,"workbean","workbean",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-01T07:29:57.000Z","2016-01-01T07:29:57.000Z","2017-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Gift from S is a sharp implement. ",25,,"memoriesofbutter","memoriesofbutter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-24T16:24:35.000Z","2015-12-24T16:24:35.000Z","2015-12-28T17:00:00.000Z"
"Gift from S is a non-fiction book.",12,,"memoriesofbutter","memoriesofbutter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-24T16:22:37.000Z","2015-12-24T16:22:37.000Z","2015-12-28T17:00:00.000Z"
"By 2038 stunting for under 5 children will be under 7.8% globally.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-21T11:03:39.000Z","2015-12-21T11:03:39.000Z","2038-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Given that Avi gets into UW, he is admitted into the CSE major by 2021",15,,"playablecharacter","playablecharacter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-04-08T17:11:37.000Z","2017-04-08T17:11:37.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zhongguo will ≥ 6.5% real GDP growth rate from 2015-2020.",95,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-04T03:57:36.000Z","2016-01-04T03:57:36.000Z","2020-12-25T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Wizards make the playoffs?",35,,"Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland","","","NBA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T01:45:57.876Z","2020-12-05T16:30:28.354Z","2021-06-01T04:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Wizards make the playoffs?",45,,"Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland","","","NBA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-05T16:30:28.360Z","2020-12-05T16:30:28.354Z","2021-06-01T04:00:00.000Z"
"Will the Wizards make the playoffs?",40,,"Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland","","","NBA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-15T23:32:27.448Z","2020-12-05T16:30:28.354Z","2021-06-01T04:00:00.000Z"
"Will I be top 10 on Facebook Forecast on Jan 1, 2022?",8,,"Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T02:03:50.277Z","2021-01-09T02:03:50.270Z","2022-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"Debian outlives Ubuntu as a project.  Ubuntu 'ceases to exist' or 'gets bought out and no longer offers FLOSS OS' or 'ceases all development' while Debian remains active",53,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-04-08T15:59:03.000Z","2017-04-08T15:59:02.000Z","2037-01-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"Hyperion sells 300 nuclear reactors",40,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-04-06T15:58:02.000Z","2017-04-06T15:58:02.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"CPT symmetry violated",13,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-04-05T15:27:52.000Z","2017-04-05T15:27:52.000Z","2099-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 is not a conventional Eva, and has already been seen in _1.0_ or _2.0_",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T20:43:58.000Z","2011-10-07T20:43:58.000Z","2018-01-01T19:58:27.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be created from the wreckage of Eva 02 and Eva 03 and will be two separate units linked to one pilot",1,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T20:43:32.000Z","2011-10-07T20:43:32.000Z","2018-01-01T19:58:25.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be Rei",5,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T20:42:11.000Z","2011-10-07T20:42:11.000Z","2018-01-01T19:58:19.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be Lilith",15,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T20:41:21.000Z","2011-10-07T20:41:21.000Z","2018-01-01T19:58:17.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will see combat but be quickly destroyed",40,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T20:40:06.000Z","2011-10-07T20:40:06.000Z","2018-01-01T19:58:14.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will not be shown in _4.0_",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T20:35:36.000Z","2011-10-07T20:35:36.000Z","2018-01-01T19:58:10.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by a Magi",1,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T20:23:17.000Z","2011-10-07T20:23:17.000Z","2018-01-01T19:58:06.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Mari",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T20:18:35.000Z","2011-10-07T20:18:35.000Z","2018-01-01T19:57:16.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Asuka",15,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T20:16:54.000Z","2011-10-07T20:16:54.000Z","2018-01-01T19:57:12.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Eva 06 is Adam",35,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T20:08:31.000Z","2011-10-07T20:08:30.000Z","2018-01-01T19:57:09.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Eva 05 was Tunniel",45,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T20:05:18.000Z","2011-10-07T20:05:17.000Z","2018-01-01T19:57:07.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Eva 01 will be upgraded to/redesignated Eva 07",25,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T19:38:10.000Z","2011-10-07T19:38:09.000Z","2018-01-01T19:57:03.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Eva 08 will related to the capture of NERV and extraction of Shinji",40,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T19:29:22.000Z","2011-10-07T19:29:22.000Z","2018-01-01T19:57:01.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Eva 08 will be Lilith (shrunken) and not Eva-01",20,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T19:28:45.000Z","2011-10-07T19:28:45.000Z","2018-01-01T19:56:58.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Eva 08 will be piloted by Asuka",30,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T19:27:47.000Z","2011-10-07T19:27:47.000Z","2018-01-01T19:56:53.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for herself/an otherwise unknown conspiracy/group",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T18:54:29.000Z","2011-10-07T18:54:29.000Z","2018-01-01T19:56:42.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for SEELE & is the head of SEELE",1,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T18:53:48.000Z","2011-10-07T18:53:48.000Z","2018-01-01T19:56:40.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Mari is the daughter of Asuka & Shinji from an 'original' EoE-verse",3,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T18:49:33.000Z","2011-10-07T18:49:33.000Z","2018-01-01T19:46:02.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Mari is part-Russian or has connections to Russia",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T18:36:58.000Z","2011-10-07T18:36:58.000Z","2018-01-01T19:45:50.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Mari is an Eva and specifically Eva-07",1,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T18:36:36.000Z","2011-10-07T18:36:36.000Z","2018-01-01T19:45:48.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Mari is a angel/human hybrid",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T18:35:46.000Z","2011-10-07T18:35:46.000Z","2018-01-01T19:45:44.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Mari is a clone of Naoko Akagi",1,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T18:34:31.000Z","2011-10-07T18:34:31.000Z","2018-01-01T19:45:39.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Mari is a straight metaphysically normal human and nothing else",35,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T18:34:03.000Z","2011-10-07T18:34:02.000Z","2018-01-01T19:45:11.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Mari marked for death by SEELE at some point",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T16:34:10.000Z","2011-10-07T16:34:10.000Z","2018-01-01T19:44:36.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Shinji will kill Gendo",20,,"gwern","gwern","original: http://forum.evageeks.org/viewtopic.php?p=366709#366709",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T16:18:47.000Z","2011-10-07T16:18:25.000Z","2018-01-01T19:44:31.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Shinji will kill Gendo",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T16:18:25.000Z","2011-10-07T16:18:25.000Z","2018-01-01T19:44:31.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Shinji is a full Angel a la _Re-Take_ (not a human-angel hybrid)",15,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T16:12:46.000Z","2011-10-07T16:12:46.000Z","2018-01-01T19:44:29.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Asuka will pilot an Eva against the MP Evas in 3.0 or 4.0, contingent on MP Evas appearing",75,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T16:09:08.000Z","2011-10-07T16:09:08.000Z","2018-01-01T19:44:26.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Asuka Shikinami is now a human/angel hybrid and the angel infection takes her over",20,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T16:06:42.000Z","2011-10-07T16:06:42.000Z","2018-01-01T19:44:22.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Asuka Shikinami is now a human/angel hybrid",65,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T16:05:28.000Z","2011-10-07T16:05:28.000Z","2018-01-01T19:44:19.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be created from the wreckage of Eva 02 and Eva 03",5,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T20:43:02.000Z","2011-10-07T20:43:02.000Z","2018-01-01T19:58:23.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be a MP-style Eva",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T20:42:36.000Z","2011-10-07T20:42:36.000Z","2018-01-01T19:58:21.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be destroyed or scrapped or reused before any combat",20,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T20:36:07.000Z","2011-10-07T20:36:07.000Z","2018-01-01T19:58:12.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Shinji will die, permanently, and not transcend or continue to exist in some sense",25,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T20:24:46.000Z","2011-10-07T20:24:45.000Z","2018-01-01T19:58:08.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Mana from _Girlfriend of Steel_",0,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T20:22:51.000Z","2011-10-07T20:22:51.000Z","2018-01-01T19:58:04.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Rei",25,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T20:20:29.000Z","2011-10-07T20:20:28.000Z","2018-01-01T19:57:18.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Touji",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T20:18:05.000Z","2011-10-07T20:18:05.000Z","2018-01-01T19:57:13.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Eva 01 will be upgraded to/redesignated Eva 08",25,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T19:38:45.000Z","2011-10-07T19:38:45.000Z","2018-01-01T19:57:05.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Eva 08 will be used against NERV",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T19:28:10.000Z","2011-10-07T19:28:10.000Z","2018-01-01T19:56:56.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: The MP Evas will appear in _3.0_ or _4.0_",70,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T19:13:24.000Z","2011-10-07T19:13:24.000Z","2018-01-01T19:56:51.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Mari is really working for a NERV branch",25,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T18:56:29.000Z","2011-10-07T18:56:29.000Z","2018-01-01T19:56:49.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for herself/an otherwise unknown conspiracy/group which is opposed to just SEELE's plans & has links to Gendo",30,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T18:55:48.000Z","2011-10-07T18:55:48.000Z","2018-01-01T19:56:46.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for herself/an otherwise unknown conspiracy/group which is opposed to NERV & SEELE's plans",40,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T18:55:15.000Z","2011-10-07T18:55:15.000Z","2018-01-01T19:56:44.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for SEELE",25,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T18:53:31.000Z","2011-10-07T18:53:31.000Z","2018-01-01T19:53:59.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Mari is conspiring with Kaji",85,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T18:50:10.000Z","2011-10-07T18:50:09.000Z","2018-01-01T19:46:05.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Mari is actually an autonomous part of Asuka Soryu Langley, with Asuka Shikinami being the other half",3,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T18:39:28.000Z","2011-10-07T18:39:28.000Z","2018-01-01T19:46:00.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Mari is actually a disguised Asuka Soryu Langley",4,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T18:39:05.000Z","2011-10-07T18:39:05.000Z","2018-01-01T19:45:58.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Mari is actually Asuka Soryu Langley in some sense",8,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T18:38:43.000Z","2011-10-07T18:38:43.000Z","2018-01-01T19:45:56.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Mari is some sort of 'False Child' which has covertly replaced another one",5,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T18:38:13.000Z","2011-10-07T18:38:13.000Z","2018-01-01T19:45:53.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Mari is an Eva",2,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T18:36:07.000Z","2011-10-07T18:36:07.000Z","2018-01-01T19:45:46.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Mari is an animal/human hybrid",4,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T18:35:01.000Z","2011-10-07T18:35:01.000Z","2018-01-01T19:45:41.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: At some point in the last 2 movies Mari will appear in EoE-Asuka-style eye/arm bandages",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T16:49:01.000Z","2011-10-07T16:49:00.000Z","2018-01-01T19:43:44.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: At some point in the last 2 movies Mari will say 'anta baka?'",45,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T16:36:56.000Z","2011-10-07T16:36:56.000Z","2018-01-01T19:44:57.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: a Mari x Shinji ending",5,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T16:31:49.000Z","2011-10-07T16:31:48.000Z","2018-01-01T19:44:33.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Asuka Shikinami is now a human/angel hybrid and the angel infection takes her over and Shinji is forced to kill her",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T16:07:32.000Z","2011-10-07T16:07:31.000Z","2018-01-01T19:44:24.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Asuka will be employed by SEELE against NERV or Shinji",30,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T16:01:11.000Z","2011-10-07T16:01:11.000Z","2018-01-01T19:44:17.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Asuka vs. Shinji death-fight",25,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T15:58:07.000Z","2011-10-07T15:58:07.000Z","2018-01-01T19:44:15.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Asuka Shikinami is a clone of another Asuka and Shikinami is then disposed of",20,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T15:55:09.000Z","2011-10-07T15:55:09.000Z","2018-01-01T19:44:13.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Asuka's surname's change to Shikinami will receive an in-universe explanation and will pertain to Second Impact/the four FARs in Misato's _2.0_ flashback",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T15:39:58.000Z","2011-10-07T15:39:58.000Z","2018-01-01T17:30:54.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Asuka's surname's change to Shikinami will receive no in-universe explanation.",35,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T15:38:23.000Z","2011-10-07T15:38:23.000Z","2018-01-01T17:30:51.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Asuka, under her eye-patch",18,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T15:33:30.000Z","2011-10-07T15:33:30.000Z","2018-01-01T17:30:47.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Asuka",20,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T15:33:04.000Z","2011-10-07T15:33:04.000Z","2018-01-01T17:30:44.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Any Instrumentality/Third Impact in 3.0 or 4.0 will focus on Asuka rather than Shinji (as measured by seconds of screentime)",25,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T15:30:10.000Z","2011-10-07T15:30:10.000Z","2018-01-01T17:32:38.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Asuka & Shinji will kiss and the kiss will be initiated by Shinji (rather than Asuka as in NGE TV)",45,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T15:28:57.000Z","2011-10-07T15:28:57.000Z","2018-01-01T17:32:35.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Asuka & Shinji will kiss",70,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T15:28:20.000Z","2011-10-07T15:28:20.000Z","2018-01-01T17:32:32.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Contingent upon there being a strangulation scene similar to EoE, Asuka will strangle Shinji",30,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T15:27:25.000Z","2011-10-07T15:27:25.000Z","2018-01-01T17:32:28.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Asuka x Shinji ending",70,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T15:25:31.000Z","2011-10-07T15:25:31.000Z","2018-01-01T17:32:26.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: 'Giant naked Rei' will rise again from the LCL sea during Instrumentality",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T15:22:07.000Z","2011-10-07T15:22:06.000Z","2018-01-01T17:32:21.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Rei will destroy the other Rei clones",25,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T15:20:09.000Z","2011-10-07T15:20:08.000Z","2018-01-01T17:32:18.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: a Rei x Shinji ending",20,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-07T15:05:03.000Z","2011-10-07T15:05:02.000Z","2018-01-01T17:29:25.000Z"
"Will I be 1st place on Metaculus leaderboard sometime before 2025?",2,,"Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T02:04:10.533Z","2021-01-09T02:04:10.526Z","2025-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"Will I be 1st place on Metaculus leaderboard sometime before 2025?",1.5,,"Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T02:04:16.335Z","2021-01-09T02:04:10.526Z","2025-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"I'll still be active in at least 4 NBA Dynasty leagues on Jan 1, 2027",50,,"Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-09T02:08:24.738Z","2021-01-09T02:08:24.732Z","2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"Existential catastrophe from “other environmental damage” (not climate change) by 2120",0.1,,"Toby Ord","Toby Ord","All core predictions from The Precipice are intended as magnitudal estimates and not explicit guides.",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2120-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Kaji will die before Misato and in her arms",40,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-04T20:08:48.000Z","2011-10-04T20:08:48.000Z","2018-01-01T17:29:28.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Kaji will die before Misato",80,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-04T20:07:42.000Z","2011-10-04T20:07:42.000Z","2018-01-01T17:29:32.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Misato will die before Kaji does",20,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-04T20:06:54.000Z","2011-10-04T20:06:54.000Z","2018-01-01T17:29:35.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Kaji will die after Armisael",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-04T20:06:35.000Z","2011-10-04T20:06:35.000Z","2018-01-01T17:27:49.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Gendo",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-04T19:56:04.000Z","2011-10-04T19:56:04.000Z","2018-01-01T17:27:46.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Yui will separate from Eva-01 and be physically human at some point",15,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-04T19:47:37.000Z","2011-10-04T19:47:37.000Z","2018-01-01T17:26:01.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Ritsuko will be shot by Gendo (again)",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-04T01:25:46.000Z","2011-10-04T01:25:46.000Z","2018-01-01T17:23:32.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Kozo Fuyutsuki dies (before Third Impact/Instrumentality)",30,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-04T01:09:14.000Z","2011-10-04T01:09:14.000Z","2018-01-01T17:23:17.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: The key of Nebuchadnezzar is a seed of life & the original Adam reduced to embryonic form (akin to NGE TV)",65,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-04T19:55:42.000Z","2011-10-04T00:49:29.000Z","2018-01-01T19:44:10.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: The key of Nebuchadnezzar is a seed of life & the original Adam reduced to embryonic form (akin to NGE TV)",55,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-04T00:49:29.000Z","2011-10-04T00:49:29.000Z","2018-01-01T19:44:10.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: The key of Nebuchadnezzar is a seed of life",40,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-04T00:48:47.000Z","2011-10-04T00:48:47.000Z","2018-01-01T19:44:08.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: The key of Nebuchadnezzar is a seed of life",70,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-04T19:55:29.000Z","2011-10-04T00:48:47.000Z","2018-01-01T19:44:08.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: The key of Nebuchadnezzar is a seed of life",60,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-04T00:48:56.000Z","2011-10-04T00:48:47.000Z","2018-01-01T19:44:08.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: The 4 pilots (Shinji, Asuka, Mari, Rei) each have a piece of Adam's soul in addition to their own, with Kaworu having the main piece",25,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-04T00:46:47.000Z","2011-10-04T00:46:47.000Z","2018-01-01T19:44:05.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar is neither a Lance nor Seed of Life, but a literal key which activates some piece of FAR technology",40,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-04T00:43:43.000Z","2011-10-04T00:43:43.000Z","2018-01-01T19:44:01.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: The coffins on the moon each contain or contained an Angel.",95,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-04T00:42:06.000Z","2011-10-04T00:42:06.000Z","2018-01-01T19:43:59.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: There are precisely 4 white/black moons, 1 for each FAR depicted in flashbacks to 2I",35,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-04T00:41:16.000Z","2011-10-04T00:41:16.000Z","2018-01-01T19:43:57.000Z"
"A guest character (not from a Blizzard universe) to be released in Heroes of the Storm within 5 years, conditional on the game still up by that time.",7,,"timujin","timujin",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-29T11:01:21.000Z","2017-03-29T11:01:21.000Z","2022-03-29T19:01:21.000Z"
"Existential catastrophe from stellar explosion by 2120",1e-7,,"Toby Ord","Toby Ord","All core predictions from The Precipice are intended as magnitudal estimates and not explicit guides.",,"natural x risk,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2120-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Existential catastrophe from asteroid or comet impact by 2120",0.0001,,"Toby Ord","Toby Ord","All core predictions from The Precipice are intended as magnitudal estimates and not explicit guides.",,"natural x risk,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2120-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I will launch a landing page for onashirt in the next 6 months",60,,"mala","mala",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-20T02:44:26.000Z","2017-03-20T02:44:26.000Z","2017-09-20T02:44:26.000Z"
"In 2 years I will conclude that bombing IS was net negative.",50,,"rebellionkid","rebellionkid","Not as much flair up as I expected.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-18T11:51:42.000Z","2014-09-25T16:22:49.000Z","2016-09-25T16:23:24.000Z"
"In 2 years I will conclude that bombing IS was net negative.",80,,"rebellionkid","rebellionkid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-09-25T16:22:49.000Z","2014-09-25T16:22:49.000Z","2016-09-25T16:23:24.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Gendo will die protecting Shinji in some sense",30,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-04T19:44:51.000Z","2011-10-04T19:44:51.000Z","2018-01-01T17:25:36.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Ritsuko will commit suicide by jumping off the bridge",3,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-04T01:20:46.000Z","2011-10-04T01:20:45.000Z","2018-01-01T17:23:29.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Ritsuko will commit suicide by shooting herself in the head",5,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-04T01:19:56.000Z","2011-10-04T01:19:56.000Z","2018-01-01T17:23:26.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: Ritsuko will commit suicide",20,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-04T01:19:35.000Z","2011-10-04T01:19:34.000Z","2018-01-01T17:23:23.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: ""Arael attacks the sequestered NERV personnel with a wide beam, providing for a mindfuckery exposition scene featuring the other adults finally.""",5,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-04T00:57:36.000Z","2011-10-04T00:57:36.000Z","2018-01-01T17:20:55.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: The Final Angel is EoE-Shogoki (and not Kaworu)",5,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-04T00:45:29.000Z","2011-10-04T00:45:29.000Z","2018-01-01T19:44:03.000Z"
"NGE Rebuild: There are more than 2 white/black moons involved",45,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-10-04T00:40:59.000Z","2011-10-04T00:40:59.000Z","2018-01-01T19:43:55.000Z"
"Usain Bolt sets a new personal best in the 200m.",31,,"KnaveOfAllTrades","KnaveOfAllTrades",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-18T22:13:23.000Z","2014-10-18T22:13:23.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on it being the next action and sent by the end of Saturday 1st November, Megan replies to my text by or on Sunday 9th November.",67,,"KnaveOfAllTrades","KnaveOfAllTrades",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-28T14:26:55.000Z","2014-10-28T14:26:55.000Z","2014-11-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Two Year Emperor: Suze has more legitimate reasons for keeping her plans secret than what she says in chapter 70.",80,,"Philip_W","Philip_W",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-11-12T19:59:22.000Z","2014-11-12T19:59:22.000Z","2014-12-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"The “Bible of Shenanigans” will NOT be created by Justen Zhang and/or Kuba Stechly in a form that contains at least 50 high quality shenanigans by June 1 2016",85,,"from3004","from3004",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-11-26T19:51:35.000Z","2014-11-26T19:51:35.000Z","2016-06-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"The “Bible of Shenanigans” will NOT be created by Justen Zhang and/or Kuba Stechly in a form that contains at least 50 high quality shenanigans by June 1 2016",90,,"from3004","from3004","2015 failed",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-31T19:59:22.000Z","2014-11-26T19:51:35.000Z","2016-06-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"NGE: Kaworu knew Shinji during childhood when Shinji met some form of Adam/Kaworu, accidentally causing Second Impact",20,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-14T23:16:19.000Z","2011-09-14T23:16:19.000Z","2018-01-01T18:47:11.000Z"
"NGE: Kaworu knew Shinji during childhood and his comment about happiness refers to being unable to comfort Shinji after Yui died",45,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-14T23:14:33.000Z","2011-09-14T23:14:33.000Z","2018-01-01T18:47:02.000Z"
"NGE: Rebuild Kaworu's body is derived in some fashion from Misato (such as DNA)",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-14T23:12:08.000Z","2011-09-14T23:12:08.000Z","2018-01-01T18:46:47.000Z"
"NGE: Kaworu knew Shinji during childhood",70,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-14T23:13:59.000Z","2011-09-14T23:13:59.000Z","2018-01-01T18:46:53.000Z"
"""[T]wo years from now, the Center will be spending at least $2 million a year, and will be considered by one or more of our relevant technical advisors to have a reasonably good reputation in the field."" Prediction will prove true.",42,,"Vipul Naik","Vipul Naik",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-16T04:46:50.000Z","2017-03-16T04:46:50.000Z","2019-02-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"Usain Bolt sets a new world record in the 200m.",20,,"KnaveOfAllTrades","KnaveOfAllTrades",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-18T22:14:51.000Z","2014-10-18T22:14:51.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"NGE: Touji will pilot an Eva against the Mass Production Evas in 3.0 or 4.0, contingent on the MP Evas appearing",25,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-09T02:49:20.000Z","2011-09-09T02:49:20.000Z","2018-01-01T18:46:33.000Z"
"NGE: Rebuild Asuka Shikinami is a clone of another Asuka",40,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-09T01:30:00.000Z","2011-09-09T01:30:00.000Z","2018-01-01T18:46:11.000Z"
"NGE: By the end of 4.0, the Earth's oceans will be blue (and full of life) and not red & lifeless",35,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-07T23:18:39.000Z","2011-09-07T23:18:39.000Z","2018-01-01T18:48:50.000Z"
"NGE: 4.0 will end on or near a blue wave shot to parallel the red wave shot that opened 1.0, and ended EoE",15,,"gwern","gwern","as well, wave motifs are pervasive in Eva, something it shares with Nadia and Space Runaway Ideon; NGE TV and EoE ended with water visible; somewhat likely water will end Rebuild, but what color? and how would it be blue?",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-07T23:16:13.000Z","2011-09-07T23:14:45.000Z","2018-01-01T18:48:46.000Z"
"NGE: 4.0 will end on or near a blue wave shot to parallel the red wave shot that opened 1.0, and ended EoE",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-07T23:14:48.000Z","2011-09-07T23:14:45.000Z","2018-01-01T18:48:46.000Z"
"NGE: Rebuild is an alternate universe(s) to NGE TV or EoE, but each universe is causally connected (by Kaworu or Shinji or another character)",5,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-07T23:05:37.000Z","2011-09-07T23:05:37.000Z","2018-01-01T18:48:43.000Z"
"NGE: Rebuild is an alternate universe(s) to NGE TV or EoE, possibly in the Everett multiverse sense",5,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-07T23:05:09.000Z","2011-09-07T23:05:09.000Z","2018-01-01T18:04:14.000Z"
"Steam user http://steamcommunity.com/profiles/76561197973910513/ will be VAC banned for cheating by 2015 Feb 1",95,,"assmaster","assmaster",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-19T01:07:47.000Z","2014-10-19T01:07:47.000Z","2015-04-01T10:00:00.000Z"
"NGE: Touji will be featured significantly in 4.0",20,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-09T01:38:05.000Z","2011-09-09T01:38:05.000Z","2018-01-01T18:46:26.000Z"
"NGE: Rebuild Lorenz Keel is the Pope",1,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-09T01:33:55.000Z","2011-09-09T01:33:55.000Z","2018-01-01T18:46:18.000Z"
"NGE: Rebuild Asuka is (was) a genetically modified human",20,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-09T01:26:12.000Z","2011-09-09T01:26:12.000Z","2018-01-01T18:46:03.000Z"
"NGE: Rebuild Asuka is a test-tube baby, similar to the manga backstory",25,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-09T01:24:28.000Z","2011-09-09T01:24:27.000Z","2018-01-01T18:45:56.000Z"
"NGE: The First Ancestral Race will be mentioned by name in Rebuild.",50,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-07T23:26:34.000Z","2011-09-07T23:26:34.000Z","2018-01-01T18:45:45.000Z"
"NGE: 3.0 or 4.0 will deconstruct Shinji's heroism in _2.0_ and reveal it to be a sham _a la_ Norman Spinrad's _The Iron Dream_",20,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-07T23:21:23.000Z","2011-09-07T23:21:23.000Z","2018-01-01T18:45:34.000Z"
"NGE: Rebuild is a sequel to itself (time-loop)",10,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-07T23:03:05.000Z","2011-09-07T23:03:05.000Z","2018-01-01T18:04:10.000Z"
"NGE: Rebuild is a sequel to EoTV",1,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-07T23:02:48.000Z","2011-09-07T23:02:48.000Z","2018-01-01T18:04:06.000Z"
"NGE: Rebuild is a sequel to EoE",1,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-07T23:02:30.000Z","2011-09-07T23:02:30.000Z","2018-01-01T18:04:03.000Z"
"NGE: Rebuild is a sequel to a previous NGE work",2,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-07T23:01:34.000Z","2011-09-07T23:01:34.000Z","2018-01-01T18:04:00.000Z"
"NGE: Rebuild is a dream/possible-world during EoE of Asuka",1,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-07T22:54:35.000Z","2011-09-07T22:54:35.000Z","2018-01-01T18:03:57.000Z"
"NGE: Rebuild is a dream/possible-world during EoE of Shinji",2,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-07T22:54:18.000Z","2011-09-07T22:54:18.000Z","2018-01-01T18:03:54.000Z"
"NGE: Rebuild is a dream/possible-world during EoE",3,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-07T22:53:58.000Z","2011-09-07T22:53:58.000Z","2018-01-01T18:03:50.000Z"
"NGE: Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV by Rei or Kaworu",0,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-07T22:50:37.000Z","2011-09-07T22:50:37.000Z","2018-01-01T18:03:29.000Z"
"NGE: Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV by Misato",0,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-07T22:49:43.000Z","2011-09-07T22:49:43.000Z","2018-01-01T18:03:17.000Z"
"NGE: Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV by Asuka while sedated",1,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-07T22:48:54.000Z","2011-09-07T22:48:54.000Z","2018-01-01T18:03:05.000Z"
"NGE: Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV by Asuka while being mind-raped",1,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-07T22:48:24.000Z","2011-09-07T22:48:24.000Z","2018-01-01T18:02:51.000Z"
"NGE: Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV",2,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-07T22:48:10.000Z","2011-09-07T22:48:10.000Z","2018-01-01T18:02:36.000Z"
"NGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as Rebuild",26,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-07T22:44:04.000Z","2011-09-07T22:44:03.000Z","2018-01-01T17:47:10.000Z"
"NGE: 4.0 will not be longer than 60 minutes",20,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-07T21:42:58.000Z","2011-09-07T21:42:58.000Z","2018-01-01T18:04:52.000Z"
"NGE: There will be a fifth movie (an animation >40min) after 4.0.",5,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-07T21:35:28.000Z","2011-09-07T21:35:28.000Z","2018-01-01T18:48:40.000Z"
"By 2017-12-31 Sun: I do a workout in which I measure my mass and in which I do five sets of five reps of overhead press at [70kg or 0.85x my body mass, whichever is the greater] raw.",45,,"KnaveOfAllTrades","KnaveOfAllTrades",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-08T22:54:01.000Z","2017-03-08T22:54:01.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Resolute gets treble damages against Greenpeace thanks to RICO (from 2017 case)",49,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-08T03:05:26.000Z","2017-03-08T03:05:26.000Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2017-12-31 Sun: I do a workout in which I measure my mass and in which I do five deadlift reps of [205kg or 2.25x my body mass, whichever is the greater] raw.",58,,"KnaveOfAllTrades","KnaveOfAllTrades",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-05T06:07:17.000Z","2017-03-05T06:07:17.000Z","2018-01-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"fradi will win the derby",75,,"tieics","tieics",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-04T08:48:32.000Z","2017-03-04T08:48:32.000Z","2017-03-04T20:00:00.000Z"
"Age-adjusted mortality rate in men from lung cancer in England/Wales <= 400/million (as reported by ONS -- 2015: 704, 2001: 963)",60,,"penten","penten",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-15T12:32:20.000Z","2017-02-15T12:32:20.000Z","2027-02-15T12:32:20.000Z"
"New 12.5%+ tax on all goods entering the US from china (post jan 2017)",51,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-15T03:28:16.000Z","2017-02-15T03:28:16.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"NGE: Both 3.0 and 4.0 will be released in the US by Funimation",94,,"gwern","gwern","Funi is doing 3.0 as well; so far so good",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-01T18:48:30.000Z","2011-09-07T21:10:46.000Z","2018-01-01T18:48:08.000Z"
"NGE: Both 3.0 and 4.0 will be released in the US by Funimation",90,,"gwern","gwern","Funi is one of very few big players left in the US market after the anime holocaust, and they already released 1.0 and 2.0, so... ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-07T21:13:04.000Z","2011-09-07T21:10:46.000Z","2018-01-01T18:48:08.000Z"
"NGE: Both 3.0 and 4.0 will be released in the US by Funimation",85,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-07T21:10:46.000Z","2011-09-07T21:10:46.000Z","2018-01-01T18:48:08.000Z"
"NGE: Anno will return to employment at Gainax and also to the Gainax board of directors after _Rebuild_.",25,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-07T20:32:19.000Z","2011-09-07T20:32:19.000Z","2018-01-01T18:48:05.000Z"
"NGE: Hideaki Anno will return to employment at Gainax after _Rebuild_.",30,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-09-07T20:31:27.000Z","2011-09-07T20:31:27.000Z","2018-01-01T18:48:01.000Z"
"Bugzy Malone will release a #1 UK album or EP in the next 5 years. (If he dies or goes to jail for more than 6 months this prediction will be withdrawn) ",70,,"bendini","bendini",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-14T10:51:58.000Z","2017-02-14T10:51:58.000Z","2022-02-14T10:51:58.000Z"
"Most Senate Dems outperform RCP average by more than 1%. ",75,,"NathanMcKnight","NathanMcKnight",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-10-20T14:37:27.000Z","2014-10-20T14:37:27.000Z","2015-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2017-12-31 Sun: I do a workout in which I measure my mass and in which I do five sets of five reps of ATG squats at [143kg or 1.5x my body mass, whichever is the greater] raw.",52,,"KnaveOfAllTrades","KnaveOfAllTrades",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-05T06:24:19.000Z","2017-03-05T06:24:19.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Gavin Christopher Newsom becomes POTUS (or equivalent title to whatever union california is part of)",1,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-28T15:44:49.000Z","2017-02-28T15:44:49.000Z","2104-03-01T19:04:00.000Z"
"1-5-10-15 income tax passes in the US",49,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-17T02:57:46.000Z","2017-02-17T02:57:46.000Z","2021-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"altyn currency of at least 2 countries",50,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-16T18:21:49.000Z","2017-02-16T18:21:49.000Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"PAP becomes privatized and murders former shenzenites",58,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-04T16:12:33.000Z","2017-02-04T16:12:33.000Z","2021-02-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"CPC implements UBI",24,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-02-04T16:10:41.000Z","2017-02-04T16:10:41.000Z","2021-02-04T12:00:00.000Z"
"The increasing popularity of drinking water in the developed world is due to a biological adaptation, rather than a cultural one. This statement will be the conclusion of a study published in a credible scientific journal before 2036.",3,,"Philip_W","Philip_W",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-11-04T09:45:58.000Z","2014-11-04T09:45:58.000Z","2036-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Depression rates be an average of 1.0% higher in each of the following age groups in 2022 (to adjust for any demographic shifts). We should have access to this data in late 2014 (ie 10 years from now). 

According to the NIMH's interpretation of the NSD",65,,"Porejide","Porejide",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-11-30T21:41:20.000Z","2014-11-30T21:41:20.000Z","2024-11-30T21:41:19.000Z"
"At some point next year I will publicly declare myself to be a furry.",20,,"rebellionkid","rebellionkid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-11T19:45:41.000Z","2014-12-11T19:45:41.000Z","2017-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A general factoring algorithm better than the number field sieve by 2035",65,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-19T18:13:14.000Z","2014-12-19T18:13:14.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"u(1/2)<=.15 by 2045. Here mean u(1/2) in the Lindelof hypothesis.  ",95,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-19T18:17:50.000Z","2014-12-19T18:17:50.000Z","2045-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"I will not receive my college grades in the mail before I return from my vacation in 2015.",90,,"brightcloud","brightcloud",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-23T02:14:55.000Z","2014-12-23T02:14:55.000Z","2015-01-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2045, at least one of the following will occur: group isomorphism in P^factoring/poly, integer factoring in P^GI/poly, group isomorpism in BQP. ",65,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-25T19:41:25.000Z","2014-12-25T19:41:25.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Infinite impact"" from ""an uncertain risk"" within the next 100 years, which ""refers to the state where civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends""",0.5,,"D Pamlin & S Armstrong","D Pamlin & S Armstrong","Beard et al. write: ""The following estimate concerns risks associated with scenarios that at present seem either very unlikely or very unlikely to pose a significant risk, but where there is a possibility that these assessments represent a significant underestimate of the threat. This includes physics experiments, as described in the previous section, but also risks such as animal cognitive enhancement and the search for extraterrestrial intelligent life. Pamlin and Armstrong also discuss the existential threat posed by Global System Collapse and Future Bad Global Governance, but believe that the probability of even reaching infinite threshold from such risks cannot be quantified.""",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2115-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""Infinite impact"" from ""a major asteroid impact"" within the next 100 years, which ""refers to the state where civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends"" ",0.00013000000000000002,,"D Pamlin & S Armstrong","D Pamlin & S Armstrong",,,"natural x risk,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2115-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Finite group isomorphism problem found to be in P by 2045. ",12,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-04T20:51:27.000Z","2014-12-04T20:51:27.000Z","2045-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Finite group isomorphism problem found to be in P by 2045. ",25,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-04T20:52:48.000Z","2014-12-04T20:51:27.000Z","2045-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Phthalate exposure in utero link to reduced intelligence to be confirmed/replicated by at least two other studies by January 1, 2024",75,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-15T00:59:34.000Z","2014-12-15T00:59:34.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one substantial improvement on the finite group isomorphism problem will occur before 2035. ",95,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-12-19T18:12:22.000Z","2014-12-19T18:12:22.000Z","2035-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"QRVO loses share on the iPhone",31,,"Temeraire","Temeraire",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-28T03:44:41.000Z","2017-01-28T03:44:41.000Z","2017-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"1.5 trillion $ in war tribute extracted from Iraq in oil ""profit sharing"" agreement to the US",22,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-25T12:40:45.000Z","2017-01-25T12:40:45.000Z","2037-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"[b]<a href=""http://www.tcuirs.com/it/"">omega basilea</a>[/b]
[b]<a href=""http://www.tcuirs.com/it/"">replica omega orologi</a>[/b]
[b][url=http://www.tcuirs.com/it/]copia omega orologi[/url][/b]

[b][url=http://www.tcuirs.com/it/]1000 Omega orologi[/url][/",0,,"ethaneshaw","ethaneshaw",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-06T18:28:22.000Z","2015-01-06T18:28:22.000Z","2015-01-06T14:20:00.000Z"
"Dollar will go to 66c",70,,"Christine","Christine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-15T02:14:24.000Z","2015-01-15T02:14:24.000Z","2015-09-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Milestone 4 as discussed at http://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=2155 will be achieved by 2028. ",65,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-20T23:58:48.000Z","2015-01-20T23:58:48.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"HPMOR : the resurrection stone can bring back a sentient but not controllable ghost from dna tissue ( or simply human remains )",30,,"claz","claz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-25T21:05:32.000Z","2015-01-25T21:05:32.000Z","2015-03-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will quit my day job this year.",55,,"MattG","MattG",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-30T21:20:46.000Z","2015-01-30T21:20:46.000Z","2015-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1st, 2025, the US employment/population ratio will be 60% or under. ",32,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Slight update on thinking about this more. Doesn't impact bet at all. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-31T23:40:30.000Z","2015-01-31T01:51:01.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1st, 2025, the US employment/population ratio will be 60% or under. ",25,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-31T01:51:01.000Z","2015-01-31T01:51:01.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ebola won't spread in the American continent in the upcoming years",100,,"Caio","Caio",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-13T17:40:29.000Z","2015-01-13T17:40:29.000Z","2015-01-14T00:00:00.000Z"
"Toronto's condo market will tank in 2015.",25,,"realityriot","realityriot",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-14T19:18:06.000Z","2015-01-14T19:18:06.000Z","2015-11-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"I will maintain my GPA above a 3.6 overall average this semester.",90,,"woodse","woodse",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-15T23:55:28.000Z","2015-01-15T23:55:28.000Z","2015-05-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on being able to find credible source, Anna Wise >= 26 years old wrt common parlance",54,,"KnaveOfAllTrades","KnaveOfAllTrades",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-22T20:30:03.000Z","2015-01-22T20:30:03.000Z","2015-01-22T20:30:03.000Z"
"QRVO gains share on the iPhone",35,,"Temeraire","Temeraire",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-28T03:44:13.000Z","2017-01-28T03:44:13.000Z","2017-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Total LessWrong Google Analytics Pageviews for 2017 will be higher than for 2016",70,,"Issa Rice","Issa Rice",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-26T03:42:45.000Z","2017-01-26T03:42:45.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"REINS act signed into law ",75,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-24T03:45:03.000Z","2017-01-24T03:45:03.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"DH & JB will have at least 3 children",30,,"jungwon","jungwon","","","jbfriends","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:22:40.873Z","2020-12-01T17:13:19.082Z","2031-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"PG will have at least 3 children",30,,"jungwon","jungwon","","","jbfriends","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:22:48.934Z","2020-12-01T17:12:38.970Z","2031-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"PG will have at least 3 children",35,,"jungwon","jungwon","","","jbfriends","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:23:37.038Z","2020-12-01T17:12:38.970Z","2031-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"GS will homeschool his kids for at least 1 year",40,,"jungwon","jungwon","","","jbfriends","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:22:49.646Z","2020-12-01T17:16:09.302Z","2031-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"GS will have at least 3 children",40,,"jungwon","jungwon","","","jbfriends","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:23:05.328Z","2020-12-01T17:12:57.432Z","2031-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"GS will have at least 3 children",50,,"jungwon","jungwon","","","jbfriends","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:23:43.956Z","2020-12-01T17:12:57.432Z","2031-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"DH will finish his PhD in < 5 years",50,,"jungwon","jungwon","","","jbfriends","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:23:14.972Z","2020-12-01T17:15:19.237Z","2024-12-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"VM will have at least 3 children",15,,"jungwon","jungwon","","","jbfriends","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-01T17:23:22.182Z","2020-12-01T17:13:28.402Z","2031-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"""Infinite impact"" from a super-volcano within the next 100 years, which ""refers to the state where civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends"" ",0.000029999999999999997,,"D Pamlin & S Armstrong","D Pamlin & S Armstrong",,,"natural x risk,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2115-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""Infinite impact"" from nuclear war within the next 100 years, which ""refers to the state where civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends"" ",0.005,,"D Pamlin & S Armstrong","D Pamlin & S Armstrong",,,"nuclear,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2115-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Chance of humanity not surviving AI",40,,"Stuart Armstrong","Stuart Armstrong","Stated verbally during an interview. Not totally clear precisely what was being estimatined (e.g. just extinction, or existential catastrophe more broadly?). ""This number fluctuates a lot"". He indicated he thought we had a 2/3 chance of surviving, then said he'd adjust to 50%, which is his number for an ""actually superintelligent"" AI, whereas for ""AI in general"" it'd be 60%.",,"x risk,AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2014-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2014-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"'The majority of new vehicles are plug-in electric, or hybrids'",85,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2011-06-07T19:10:05.000Z","2011-06-07T19:10:05.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Infinite impact"" from nanotechnology within the next 100 years, which ""refers to the state where civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends""",0.01,,"D Pamlin & S Armstrong","D Pamlin & S Armstrong",,,"nanotechnology,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2115-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"large, existing firms that make medical devices will fail to make inroads on marketshare % of wearable health devices wrt small disruptors",66,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-19T03:08:54.000Z","2017-01-19T03:08:54.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"War involving either active troop deployments from/fighting in all of: US, UK, China, At least one Scandinavian country, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Russia",13,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-17T20:09:12.000Z","2017-01-17T20:09:12.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"ATF Elimination Act passes",51,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-16T12:22:19.000Z","2017-01-16T12:22:19.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"alexa/siri/ok google/their competitor have better conversational skills",52,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-16T04:17:45.000Z","2017-01-16T04:17:45.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"See some kind of CISA/SOPA-like legislation thrown around and some will pass, be legislation on things that are ""not legislatable"" or logically impossible",87,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-16T03:56:16.000Z","2017-01-16T03:56:16.000Z","2017-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"Human extinction due to all nuclear wars by 2100 ",1,,"GCR Conference","A Sandberg & N Bostrom","Summarised results of informal survey conducted at global catastrophic risk conference.",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Human extinction due to the single biggest nanotech accident by 2100 ",0.5,,"GCR Conference","A Sandberg & N Bostrom","Summarised results of informal survey conducted at global catastrophic risk conference.",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Human extinction due to the single biggest natural pandemic by 2100 ",0.05,,"GCR Conference","A Sandberg & N Bostrom","Summarised results of informal survey conducted at global catastrophic risk conference.",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Human extinction due to all acts of nuclear terrorism by 2100 ",0.03,,"GCR Conference","A Sandberg & N Bostrom","Summarised results of informal survey conducted at global catastrophic risk conference.",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2008-07-17T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Total existential risk” by 2120",17,,"Toby Ord","Toby Ord","All core predictions from The Precipice are intended as magnitudal estimates and not explicit guides.",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2120-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"compulsory conscription in sweden, or sweden invaded",57,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-17T16:18:19.000Z","2017-01-17T16:18:19.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump Inauguration has lower ratings than or between Obama and Bush Inauguration",49,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-16T03:58:18.000Z","2017-01-16T03:58:18.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Somebody does something ""really cool"" with augmented reality",69,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-16T03:46:07.000Z","2017-01-16T03:46:07.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"2 or more of { US, Russia, China } engaged in physical war AND lead up to said war involves { kill switches, mass DDOS, some other kind of computer-related 'attack' }",18,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-16T03:54:04.000Z","2017-01-16T03:54:04.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"first bipedal soldiers deployed are russian made ",17,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-16T03:42:41.000Z","2017-01-16T03:42:41.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Somebody causes fire, augmented reality to blame",37,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-16T03:39:13.000Z","2017-01-16T03:39:13.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By the end of 2025 speech to text software ""will be just below the level of a trained stenographer with something like 80% probability, and ""solved"" (somewhat above that level in many different languages) with 30% probability.",85,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-09T21:32:00.000Z","2015-02-09T21:32:00.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"CFIB comes out against mill rate increase in regina budget",51,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-12T20:39:14.000Z","2017-01-12T20:39:14.000Z","2017-02-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"Obamacare repeal on Jan 11/12, 2017 that occurred defeated before it goes into effect",10,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-12T17:20:19.000Z","2017-01-12T17:20:19.000Z","2017-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I am still married to my current partner",85,,"penten","penten",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-11T16:23:57.000Z","2017-01-11T16:23:57.000Z","2024-01-11T16:23:57.000Z"
"Moving ahead",100,,"kuttypa","kuttypa",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-02-15T03:55:46.000Z","2015-02-15T03:55:46.000Z","2015-02-15T13:30:00.000Z"
"Prime Minister Patty Hajdu",4,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-11T03:31:08.000Z","2017-01-11T03:31:08.000Z","2050-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Facebook caught labelling website as ""fake news"" for saying negative things about Facebook.",77,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-16T01:35:35.000Z","2017-01-16T01:35:35.000Z","2027-01-08T12:00:00.000Z"
"weev's attempt at resurrecting Luminiferous Aether Theory is actually a ploy to get someone to send his posse quantities of fissile material",14,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-13T22:49:23.000Z","2017-01-13T22:49:23.000Z","2026-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Gordon Brown has unambiguously brown eyes",60,,"KnaveOfAllTrades","KnaveOfAllTrades",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-05T03:19:24.000Z","2015-03-05T03:19:23.000Z","2015-03-05T03:19:23.000Z"
"Unipäiväkirja huomenna",70,,"19283123","19283123",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-09T16:55:55.000Z","2015-03-09T16:55:55.000Z","2015-03-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Rainfall in 2020 will be at least 49% of historic levels in California. (Using the standard June to July year) ",65,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-03-23T17:02:22.000Z","2015-03-23T17:02:21.000Z","2020-07-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Illidanstr will spend at least one new years eve before the year 2021 not alone, according to his personal definition of ""not alone""",80,,"bendini","bendini",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-01T14:27:12.000Z","2017-01-01T14:27:12.000Z","2021-01-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"Section 702 renewed (or replaced with something that does roughly the same thing within 6 months)",95,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-28T21:26:53.000Z","2016-12-28T21:26:53.000Z","2017-12-31T23:59:00.000Z"
"Rob will win his family's Festivus FEAT OF STRENGTH this year",50,,"asyks","asyks",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-22T23:31:21.000Z","2016-12-22T23:31:21.000Z","2016-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Rob will win his family's Festivus FEAT OF STRENGTH this year",50,,"asyks","asyks",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-22T23:31:46.000Z","2016-12-22T23:31:21.000Z","2016-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"facebook block capability will digitally alter pictures to erase evidence that the person who's blocking you was ever present",53,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-22T22:21:37.000Z","2016-12-22T22:21:37.000Z","2025-07-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"I get banned from GoodReads",75,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-09T20:44:37.000Z","2017-01-09T20:44:37.000Z","2021-01-10T10:00:00.000Z"
"Under assumptions of  PH not collapse to finite level, PH != PSPACE, PSPACE != EXP, PSPACE not in P^{MSCP}/poly, UGC,  GI is not in BQP, factoring is not in P, and NC != P, proven that BPP is contained in ZPP^(NP^MSCP) by January 1, 2100",100,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-27T16:41:55.000Z","2015-09-27T16:41:55.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will complete Anki reviews every week until April. ",55,,"memoriesofbutter","memoriesofbutter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-16T20:37:09.000Z","2015-10-16T20:37:08.000Z","2016-04-16T10:00:00.000Z"
"Terrorist Attack in US with >12 deaths or new US version of Falklands War (ie not war with Russia, China, EU but 'smaller country')",58,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-19T07:06:31.000Z","2016-12-19T07:06:31.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Trump explicitly invokes a credit wake",50,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-17T20:00:40.000Z","2016-12-17T20:00:40.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Nathan adds more than 10 questions by 11:59PM PT today",30,,"jungwon","jungwon","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-05T18:13:14.371Z","2021-01-05T18:13:14.363Z","2021-01-06T08:00:00.000Z"
"Justin Trudeau is caught some group of protesters the finger",49,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-08T22:04:33.000Z","2016-12-08T22:04:33.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will not convert to an abramist faith on my deathbed",100,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-07T00:13:37.000Z","2016-12-07T00:13:37.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Survey of 40 random saskatchewanians (or whoever lives in that area in 2020) will reveal Brad Wall's tweet in 2016 as 'ridiculous'",49,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-05T16:03:13.000Z","2016-12-05T16:03:13.000Z","2020-11-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2045, electric powered passenger jets will exist. ",15,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-20T20:08:54.000Z","2015-04-20T20:08:54.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2045, electric powered passenger jets will exist. ",18,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Updating. ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-17T22:20:35.000Z","2015-04-20T20:08:54.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will be over this by May 1st",80,,"dmai9600@yahoo.com","dmai9600@yahoo.com",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-16T15:31:25.000Z","2015-04-16T15:31:25.000Z","2015-05-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will acquire enough python knowledge to contribute to a GitHub project.",10,,"memoriesofbutter","memoriesofbutter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-16T20:35:48.000Z","2015-10-16T20:35:48.000Z","2016-08-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on human beings being still alive, most of them will be on earth, whatever 'human being' and 'earth' mean in 3016",50,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-07T18:00:19.000Z","2016-12-07T18:00:19.000Z","3016-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"What is today known as the 2016 Oct Surkov leaks will be generally agreed to have been the result of a US Govt operation. Similar to how the NYTimes says (but both governments deny) that Stuxnet was a joint US/Israel operation",95,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-01T21:47:28.000Z","2016-12-01T21:47:28.000Z","2066-12-02T07:00:00.000Z"
"I will live longer than JoshuaZ",51,,"jesselevine","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-23T20:02:40.000Z","2015-04-23T20:02:40.000Z","2100-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"More families in north america are single income, two partners, raising children than dual income with/without children/other arrangements",50,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-01T07:15:33.000Z","2016-12-01T07:15:33.000Z","2026-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"d309242507b92a022ce20a1f0079b8c3 is still in same house",5,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-01T07:06:43.000Z","2016-12-01T07:06:43.000Z","2036-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
">1 million american refugees have entered canadian borders",49,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-01T04:37:26.000Z","2016-12-01T04:37:26.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"d309242507b92a022ce20a1f0079b8c3 paying < 300$/mo property tax",1,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-01T07:08:05.000Z","2016-12-01T07:08:05.000Z","2036-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"d309242507b92a022ce20a1f0079b8c3 paying 5000$/mo in property tax",3,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-01T07:07:29.000Z","2016-12-01T07:07:29.000Z","2036-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"d309242507b92a022ce20a1f0079b8c3 is still alive",33,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-12-01T07:05:31.000Z","2016-12-01T07:05:31.000Z","2036-11-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on none of Cruz, Walker or Paul becoming the Republican nominee, Psimoe will still end up saying they will vote for the nominee.  ",55,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-26T13:21:45.000Z","2015-04-26T13:21:45.000Z","2016-07-25T22:00:00.000Z"
"By 2045, ZPP contained in P^(A,B) proven, where A is a ring isomorphism oracle, and B is an MSCP oracle. ",95,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-26T23:39:20.000Z","2015-04-26T23:39:20.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Commercially sold driverless/self-driving cars in at least one OECD country by January 1 2032. ",92,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-04-28T16:32:04.000Z","2015-04-28T16:32:04.000Z","2032-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"He hears from her by midnight tonight",68,,"EagleEye","EagleEye",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-01T19:18:51.000Z","2015-05-01T19:18:51.000Z","2015-05-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"Score at least 150 on a PLSAT",90,,"memoriesofbutter","memoriesofbutter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-16T21:01:40.000Z","2015-10-16T21:01:40.000Z","2015-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"On my 40th birthday I will be a vegetarian or pescetarian.",70,,"EloiseRosen","EloiseRosen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-04T15:27:53.000Z","2015-05-04T15:27:53.000Z","2030-07-31T16:00:00.000Z"
"On my 40th birthday, I will be living in the US.",88,,"EloiseRosen","EloiseRosen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-04T15:28:50.000Z","2015-05-04T15:28:50.000Z","2030-07-31T16:00:00.000Z"
"On my 40th birthday, Sam will still be alive and I will still be married to him.",90,,"EloiseRosen","EloiseRosen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-04T15:29:54.000Z","2015-05-04T15:29:54.000Z","2030-07-31T16:00:00.000Z"
"On my 40th birthday, I will have had 2 children (excluding offspring from selling eggs).",25,,"EloiseRosen","EloiseRosen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-04T15:31:07.000Z","2015-05-04T15:31:07.000Z","2030-07-31T16:00:00.000Z"
"On my 40th birthday, I will have had 0 children (excluding offspring from selling eggs).",15,,"EloiseRosen","EloiseRosen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-04T15:31:50.000Z","2015-05-04T15:31:50.000Z","2030-07-31T16:00:00.000Z"
"In the next two minutes, a person will die.",100,,"joustthetwoofus","joustthetwoofus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-04T20:19:10.000Z","2015-05-04T20:19:10.000Z","2015-05-04T20:21:10.000Z"
"The duration of copyright in America will be extended before 2024",35,,"aoeu","aoeu",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-01T08:18:50.000Z","2015-05-01T08:18:50.000Z","2024-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Within 14 years new carbon structures will enable the ability of producing in lab environments pressures of at least 3.6 * 10^13 Pa  and many pure carbon substances will have near zero cost due. ",1,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-01T18:00:08.000Z","2015-05-01T18:00:08.000Z","2029-05-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"On my 40th birthday I will be employed and working in a data science-y or programmerish occupation.",65,,"EloiseRosen","EloiseRosen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-04T15:28:11.000Z","2015-05-04T15:28:11.000Z","2030-07-31T16:00:00.000Z"
"On my 40th birthday, I will be living in the greater Boston area.",45,,"EloiseRosen","EloiseRosen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-04T15:29:19.000Z","2015-05-04T15:29:19.000Z","2030-07-31T16:00:00.000Z"
"On my 40th birthday, I will have had 4 or more children (excluding offspring from selling eggs).",10,,"EloiseRosen","EloiseRosen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-04T15:30:19.000Z","2015-05-04T15:30:19.000Z","2030-07-31T16:00:00.000Z"
"On my 40th birthday, I will have had 3 children (excluding offspring from selling eggs).",25,,"EloiseRosen","EloiseRosen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-04T15:30:36.000Z","2015-05-04T15:30:36.000Z","2030-05-31T16:00:00.000Z"
"On my 40th birthday, I will have had 1 child (excluding offspring from selling eggs).",25,,"EloiseRosen","EloiseRosen",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-04T15:32:44.000Z","2015-05-04T15:32:44.000Z","2030-07-31T16:00:00.000Z"
"60% or more of the population of any one country will use public transit more frequently than driving by 2025",15,,"kallman","kallman",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-11-20T05:49:59.000Z","2010-11-20T05:49:59.000Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2033, the EM drive will be scientifically accepted and used to power vehicles. ",1,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-11T19:00:06.000Z","2015-05-11T19:00:06.000Z","2033-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
">= 10% of California IT workers unionized by 2025",50,,"entropy","entropy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-10T14:27:39.000Z","2015-05-10T14:27:39.000Z","2025-05-10T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) will open either its Milpitas or its Berryessa station within 12 months after opening its Warm Springs/South Fremont station.",33,,"Vipul Naik","Vipul Naik","See http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/BART-pulls-forecast-for-early-completion-of-11951182.php suggesting June 2018 launch.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-08-23T03:12:16.000Z","2016-11-13T16:17:59.000Z","2020-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) will open either its Milpitas or its Berryessa station within 12 months after opening its Warm Springs/South Fremont station.",55,,"Vipul Naik","Vipul Naik","Upping this since most of the delays with opening a new station seem related to the technical issue of computer systems, which needs to be resolved anyway for Warm Springs to open.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-01T20:43:30.000Z","2016-11-13T16:17:59.000Z","2020-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) will open either its Milpitas or its Berryessa station within 12 months after opening its Warm Springs/South Fremont station.",40,,"Vipul Naik","Vipul Naik",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-13T16:17:59.000Z","2016-11-13T16:17:59.000Z","2020-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"Starcraft III or Warcraft IV to be released by May 18, 2029",65,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-17T21:59:13.000Z","2015-05-17T21:59:13.000Z","2029-05-18T12:00:00.000Z"
"China floats the yuan",47,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-10T22:33:08.000Z","2016-11-10T22:33:08.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"California irrigation application rate (acre-feet of water per acre of land) will increase from 2010 to 2015 as reported by the USGS",30,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-20T15:54:09.000Z","2015-05-20T15:54:09.000Z","2020-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"California irrigation application rate (acre-feet of water per acre of land) will increase from 2010 to 2015 as reported by the USGS",20,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-20T15:57:09.000Z","2015-05-20T15:54:09.000Z","2020-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on me feeling I have sufficient information to make a basic judgement, he had a complete break in his hand",25,,"KnaveOfAllTrades","KnaveOfAllTrades",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-23T15:37:20.000Z","2015-05-23T15:37:02.000Z","2015-05-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on me feeling I have sufficient information to make a basic judgement, he had a complete break in his hand",2,,"KnaveOfAllTrades","KnaveOfAllTrades",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-23T15:37:02.000Z","2015-05-23T15:37:02.000Z","2015-05-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on me feeling I have sufficient information to make a basic judgement, he had a complete break in his hand",15,,"KnaveOfAllTrades","KnaveOfAllTrades",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-23T15:42:07.000Z","2015-05-23T15:37:02.000Z","2015-05-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on me feeling I have sufficient information to make a basic judgement, he had a fracture/partial break in his hand",25,,"KnaveOfAllTrades","KnaveOfAllTrades",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-23T15:42:11.000Z","2015-05-23T15:42:11.000Z","2015-05-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on me feeling I have sufficient information to make a basic judgement, he had a fracture/partial break in his hand",30,,"KnaveOfAllTrades","KnaveOfAllTrades",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-23T15:42:53.000Z","2015-05-23T15:42:11.000Z","2015-05-29T23:00:00.000Z"
"There is no odd perfect number N such that N is not divisible by a 6th power of a prime- proven by January 1, 2045. ",65,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-19T18:52:13.000Z","2015-05-19T18:52:13.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Texas irrigation application rate (acre-feet of water per acre of land) will increase from 2010 to 2015 as reported by the USGS",20,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-20T15:56:55.000Z","2015-05-20T15:56:55.000Z","2020-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Domestic per capita water use in California will increase from 2010 to 2015 as reported by the USGS",30,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-23T20:57:46.000Z","2015-05-23T20:57:46.000Z","2020-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"What's the probability of human extinction as a result of badly done AI?",0.01,,"Nils Nilsson","Alexander Kruel","Nilsson's explanation: ""0.01% probability during the current century.  Beyond that, who knows?""","In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it. The formalized version of this question was: P(human extinction | badly done AI) = ?, where 'badly done' = AGI capable of self-modification that is not provably non-dangerous.","AI,ai-interviews","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Domestic per capita water use in Texas will increase from 2010 to 2015 as reported by the USGS",30,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-23T20:58:00.000Z","2015-05-23T20:58:00.000Z","2020-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on neither Cruz nor Paul winning the Republican nomination, The2ndAmendment will when asked say they are supporting the Republican nominee for President. ",55,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-05-24T19:24:36.000Z","2015-05-24T19:24:36.000Z","2016-07-22T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will develop some sort of a personal uniform (colour and/or style) and rarely deviate from it.",25,,"PseudonymousUser","PseudonymousUser",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-03T21:41:27.000Z","2015-06-03T21:41:27.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"US unilaterally attempts to  takes over 1M$ USD from US-MEX remittances",68,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-10T22:34:02.000Z","2016-11-10T22:34:02.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"at least 2 political prisoners executed in US",84,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-09T05:29:37.000Z","2016-11-09T05:29:37.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"figshare will operate through 2025-07-01",60,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-11T18:49:27.000Z","2015-06-11T18:49:27.000Z","2025-07-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"i live to use quell",33,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-08T00:41:13.000Z","2016-11-08T00:41:13.000Z","2096-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"AT&T buys Verizon, or vice versa.",28,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-03T04:55:16.000Z","2016-11-03T04:55:16.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Number of countries bombed by the US in 2020 is = 7 ",4,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-31T02:19:48.000Z","2016-10-31T02:19:48.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Number of countries bombed by the US in 2017 is < 7",18,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-31T02:18:23.000Z","2016-10-31T02:18:23.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
" jason scott still alive, running a javascript emulator",25,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-30T20:19:57.000Z","2016-10-30T20:19:57.000Z","2046-10-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"github still exists",7,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-30T20:18:42.000Z","2016-10-30T20:18:42.000Z","2046-10-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"AI will be able to perform 80% of the jobs that humans do as well or better than humans by 2050",50,,"Nils Nilsson","Alexander Kruel","Nilsson provided a 10%, 50%, and 90% estimate: 10% by 2030, 50% by 2050, 90% by 2100","In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it.","AI,ai-interviews","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"AI will be able to perform 80% of the jobs that humans do as well or better than humans by 2030",10,,"Nils Nilsson","Alexander Kruel","Nilsson provided a 10%, 50%, and 90% estimate: 10% by 2030, 50% by 2050, 90% by 2100","In 2011, Alexander Kruel started a Q&A style interview series asking various people about their perception of artificial intelligence and possible risks associated with it.","AI,ai-interviews","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2012-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The largest operating system/platform by marketshare will have been completely built from first principles by DeepMind/AGI, not building on existing OS before 2017",44,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-03T04:35:39.000Z","2016-11-03T04:35:39.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The largest operating system/platform by marketshare will be recognizable as being built off of Curtis Yarvin's ideas",5,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-03T04:31:45.000Z","2016-11-03T04:31:45.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
" Number of countries bombed by the US in 2020 is > 7 ",87,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-31T02:21:18.000Z","2016-10-31T02:21:18.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
" Number of countries bombed by the US in 2020 is < 7",12,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-31T02:20:40.000Z","2016-10-31T02:20:40.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Number of countries bombed by the US in 2017 is = 7",33,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-31T02:17:16.000Z","2016-10-31T02:17:16.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"jason scott still alive, running a javascript emulator ",34,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1","apparently my brain had a y2k bug, this was supposed to be for 2046",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-30T20:19:33.000Z","2016-10-30T13:00:22.000Z","2030-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"jason scott still alive, running a javascript emulator ",25,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-30T13:00:22.000Z","2016-10-30T13:00:22.000Z","2030-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"bitcoin is no longer around, but zcash is",12,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-29T03:43:46.000Z","2016-10-29T03:43:46.000Z","2021-10-28T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zcash hacked / value goes to 0 before marketcap hits 1T$USD",77,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-28T22:57:34.000Z","2016-10-28T22:57:34.000Z","2070-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Timbuktu burned to the ground/leveled by group loyal to dalwa al islamyya",44,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-24T18:15:04.000Z","2016-10-24T18:15:04.000Z","2026-10-25T10:00:00.000Z"
"Lucid Motors/Atieva/whatever they change their name to in some way indicates Tesla motors is still a competitor",37,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1","apparently need more coffee this morning",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-20T13:54:34.000Z","2016-10-20T13:53:13.000Z","2021-10-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Lucid Motors/Atieva/whatever they change their name to in some way indicates Tesla motors is still a competitor",27,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1","aw hell ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-20T13:54:11.000Z","2016-10-20T13:53:13.000Z","2021-10-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Lucid Motors/Atieva/whatever they change their name to in some way indicates Tesla motors is still a competitor",63,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-20T13:53:13.000Z","2016-10-20T13:53:13.000Z","2021-10-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"SEC filings from Tesla motors still lists Lucid Motors/Atieva/whatever they change their name to as a competitor",43,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-20T13:51:00.000Z","2016-10-20T13:51:00.000Z","2021-10-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Socrates1024's Dockerfile scripts still work 10 years from now",31,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-18T12:43:39.000Z","2016-10-18T12:43:39.000Z","2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z"
"One week from today, I will weight less than or equal to 169 lbs",80,,"helldalgo","helldalgo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-17T16:25:10.000Z","2016-10-17T16:25:10.000Z","2016-10-24T12:00:00.000Z"
"Dalwa al Islamyya or one of their affiliates rules >50% of Yemen",54,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-15T12:59:39.000Z","2016-10-15T12:59:39.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"What is the annual probability of an existential catastrophe arising from biowarfare or bioterrorism?",0.00018999999999999998,,"P Millett & A Snyder-Beattie","P Millett & A Snyder-Beattie",,,"biorisk,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2017-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"There won't be a significant automobile virus sighting ",13,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-10T12:37:39.000Z","2016-10-10T12:37:39.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
">128 people actively communicating using RahisiBhasha ",4,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T23:19:58.000Z","2016-10-09T23:19:58.000Z","2023-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"SETI@Home gets compromised by state-sponsored actor as means of getting access to its users computers",86,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-09T02:48:11.000Z","2016-10-09T02:48:11.000Z","2021-10-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"Boson Sampling or Scattershot Boson Sampling with at least 12 photons to be performed by January 1, 2026. ",55,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-07T19:01:04.000Z","2015-07-07T19:01:04.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat's ranking in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business report would be at least 50 in 2018.
",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-09T12:50:03.000Z","2015-07-09T12:50:03.000Z","2018-07-27T12:00:00.000Z"
"What's the probability of civilizational collapse to pre-industrial levels within millions of years, for some reason other than AGI (or malevolent nanotech)?",20,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik","Exact prediction: "" maybe ~20%. Tomasik was asked about his estimate of the chance that ""Humans will go extinct within millions of years for some reason other than AGI”. His reply included ""The probability of civilizational collapse to pre-industrial levels seems higher -- maybe ~20%?, but rebuilding seems reasonably likely IMHO"".",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-28T00:00:00.000Z","2015-08-28T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"What is the chance that ""Humans will go extinct within millions of years for some reason other than AGI""?",5,,"Brian Tomasik","Brian Tomasik","Discussed here: https://www.facebook.com/brian.tomasik/posts/10205952604908968 ""I should clarify that this probability estimate is unconditional. Most of my probability mass is on AGI taking over in the coming centuries, in which case other risks stop counting. _Conditional_ on AGI not taking over, the risk of extinction seems reasonably high, but that's partly because the main scenarios where AGI doesn't take over are scenarios where civilization collapses.""",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2018-02-06T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Extinction risk from engineered pandemics over the coming 100 years",0.0002,,"James Fodor","James Fodor","This was a direct response to Ord's estimate, although this estimate is of extinction risk rather than existential risk. ""These estimates should not be taken very seriously. I do not believe we have enough information to make sensible quantitative estimates about these eventualities. Nevertheless, I present my estimates largely in order to illustrate the extent of my disagreement with Ord’s estimates, and to illustrate the key considerations I examine in order to arrive at an estimate."" In comments on the source, Will Bradshaw critiques some of the inputs to this estimate.",,"biorisk,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2120-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"PewDiePie to still be the #1 YouTube celebrity by the end of 2016",45,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-10T06:16:56.000Z","2015-07-10T06:16:56.000Z","2016-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will have reached over a million dollars by year end.",65,,"aschberg","aschberg",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-06-30T03:02:35.000Z","2015-06-30T03:02:35.000Z","2015-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"A world totalitarian government will emerge prior to 3006 and last for a thousand years or more.",5,,"Bryan Caplan","Bryan Caplan","""How seriously do I take the possibility that a world totalitarian government will emerge during the next one thousand years and last for a thousand years or more?  Despite the complexity and guesswork inherent in answering this question, I will hazard a response.  My unconditional probability – i.e., the probability I assign given all the information I now have - is 5%.""",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2006-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2006-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","4006-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Existential catastrophe from “other anthropogenic risks” by 2120 ",2,,"Toby Ord","Toby Ord","All core predictions from The Precipice are intended as magnitudal estimates and not explicit guides.",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2120-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2048 bit RSA keys to be widely considered to be deprecated by July 7, 2028",65,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-07T18:38:26.000Z","2015-07-07T18:38:26.000Z","2028-07-08T12:00:00.000Z"
"Existential catastrophe from “unforeseen anthropogenic risks” by 2120",3,,"Toby Ord","Toby Ord","All core predictions from The Precipice are intended as magnitudal estimates and not explicit guides.",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2120-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"“Total natural [existential] risk” by 2120",0.01,,"Toby Ord","Toby Ord","All core predictions from The Precipice are intended as magnitudal estimates and not explicit guides.",,"natural x risk,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2120-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"China's Cap and Trade system still up and running",66,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-04T04:22:45.000Z","2016-10-04T04:22:45.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"3-4 ""do everything"" companies control 80%+ of hashrate of main cryptocurrency(Currently bitcoin) (ie companies that don't just provide hashes but large stack of services)",62,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-03T16:00:22.000Z","2016-10-03T16:00:22.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"attawapiskat diamond mind starts to wind down production",53,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-03T02:01:39.000Z","2016-10-03T02:01:39.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"US alert warhead loading reduced to 790 at any point on 2018",47,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-30T00:09:31.000Z","2016-09-30T00:09:31.000Z","2019-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"bitcoin volatility goes very high, with wild % swings in 2017. at least 6 90% swings.",8,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-22T15:59:43.000Z","2016-09-22T15:59:43.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Scientists find evidence of new homo species in North America great lakes area that lived ~14ky ago",5,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-22T14:26:32.000Z","2016-09-22T14:26:32.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"5 2013-londons worth of urban development gets created in 2017",63,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-22T04:27:04.000Z","2016-09-22T04:27:04.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will finish reading Human Compatible in December",55,"NO","Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland","","","Reading","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-05T16:26:01.964Z","2020-12-05T16:26:01.957Z","2021-12-05T05:00:00.000Z"
"Will I submit an entry for the Forecasting Innovation Prize?",40,"NO","Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland","I vaguely intend to, but that doesn't always translate into actually doing things","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-05T16:31:20.083Z","2020-12-05T16:31:20.077Z","2021-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"Will I submit an entry for the Forecasting Innovation Prize?",35,"NO","Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-15T23:32:32.976Z","2020-12-05T16:31:20.077Z","2021-01-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"Nathan adds more than 10 questions by 11:59PM PT ",50,,"jungwon","jungwon","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2021-01-05T18:12:09.273Z","2021-01-05T18:12:09.266Z","2021-01-06T08:00:00.000Z"
"Before 2030, Shunji Iwai will direct another movie that I will rate 95/100 or higher",3,,"bobpage","bobpage",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-05T14:24:41.000Z","2016-10-05T14:24:41.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"New homes built in Ontario will come ready with a power outlet in their garages — similar to a stove plug — to help Ontarians avoid costly electrical retrofits in the future (ie program to require it isn't cancelled before it kicks off).",83,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-30T04:23:39.000Z","2016-09-30T04:23:39.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Stan Stalnaker:  2018 Bots doing around $1T in transactions",88,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-23T02:45:28.000Z","2016-09-23T02:45:28.000Z","2018-12-31T23:59:00.000Z"
"FISA Section 702 renewed",53,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-22T01:33:14.000Z","2016-09-22T01:33:14.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""Infinite impact"" from an ""ecological catastrophe"" within the next 100 years, which ""refers to the state where civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends""",0.5,,"D Pamlin & S Armstrong","D Pamlin & S Armstrong",,,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2115-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""Infinite impact"" from ""synthetic biology"" within the next 100 years, which ""refers to the state where civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends"" ",0.0001,,"D Pamlin & S Armstrong","D Pamlin & S Armstrong",,,"biorisk,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2115-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""Infinite impact"" from a global pandemic within the next 100 years, which ""refers to the state where civilization collapses and does not recover, or a situation where all human life ends""",0.0001,,"D Pamlin & S Armstrong","D Pamlin & S Armstrong","The fact that there's a separate estimate from the same source for ""synthetic biology"" suggests that this is meant to be an estimate of the risk from a natural pandemic only.",,"biorisk,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2015-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2115-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"TBPL takes over NOIC small business development centre, writes them off as a partner.",53,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-21T21:11:51.000Z","2016-09-21T21:11:51.000Z","2021-09-21T12:00:00.000Z"
"Leah and the FSF will make amends, LibreBoot, including Leah will become GNU Libreboot again",11,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-21T16:52:22.000Z","2016-09-21T16:52:22.000Z","2021-09-21T12:00:00.000Z"
"Promised food at the Latrice Royale opening event Fall '16 by SJE in Trayes Hall will not appear until one hour after doors open (8pm EST)",70,,"mmelewinsky","mmelewinsky",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-12T23:23:54.000Z","2016-09-12T23:23:54.000Z","2016-09-13T00:23:54.000Z"
"What's the chance of human extinction in the 21st century?",1,,"Will MacAskill","Will MacAskill",,,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-24T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-24T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Risk of extinction over the next five centuries",30,,"John Leslie","John Leslie","Exact prediction: ≥ 30%",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","1996-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1996-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2496-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The prior probability that ""humanity will cease to exist before 5,100 years or thrive beyond 7.8 million years"" (quote from Beard et al.'s appendix)",5,,"Gott III","Gott III",,,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","1993-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1993-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""Russia to meet the New START Treaty central limits in accordance with the stipulated timeline of February 2018""",47,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-07T11:48:07.000Z","2016-09-07T11:48:07.000Z","2018-03-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"https://bugs.launchpad.net/ubuntu/+source/electric/+bug/475181 is still a valid bug in GNU electric 9.06+dfsg-1 ",94,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-04T22:03:26.000Z","2016-09-04T22:03:26.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will miss at least 6 consecutive days of work in 2021 due to being physically sick",50,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","I did in in both 2019 and 2020. 50% would naively seem wildly optimistic, but I'm trying a bunch of things to miss less work going forward","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-07T03:52:26.028Z","2020-12-07T03:52:26.020Z","2021-12-31T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will Ought hire an engineering manager in the next 3 months?",70,,"Zack P","Zack P","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-07T18:25:24.714Z","2020-12-07T18:25:24.705Z","2021-03-07T08:00:00.000Z"
"My brother quits / is fired from his new job for what I determine to be BS reasons",90,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-01T22:25:36.000Z","2016-09-01T22:25:36.000Z","2019-09-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"throughout dec 2017, bitcoin officially banned in russia ",53,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-01T02:59:52.000Z","2016-09-01T02:59:52.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"'Islands in the Net' style skin-browning agent made possible through PCR",53,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-31T23:44:17.000Z","2016-08-31T23:44:17.000Z","2033-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"China overtakes EU (Whatever's left of it) in at least 2 of the 3 of:
GDP, math PhDs/year, cheesecake produced / capita.",50,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-29T11:38:42.000Z","2016-08-29T11:38:42.000Z","2017-12-31T23:00:00.000Z"
"Austin's Kerbey Lane Cafe will begin moving from a magstripe card-based loyalty program to a mobile app loyalty program by 2021.",75,,"unexpectedEOF","unexpectedEOF",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-05T01:21:38.000Z","2016-08-05T01:21:38.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"It will be generally agreed that Rush Limbaugh's 2016 contract was for less money than his 2008 contract.",90,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-03T07:57:50.000Z","2016-08-03T07:57:50.000Z","2066-08-16T07:00:00.000Z"
"Approximate annual global catastrophic risk",0.2,,"Simpson","Simpson",,,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-11-01T00:00:00.000Z","2016-11-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"“Extremely bad (e.g. extinction)” long-run impact on humanity from “high-level machine intelligence”",5,,"Survey of “AI experts”","Survey of “AI experts”","The report's authors discuss potential concerns around non-response bias and the fact that “NIPS and ICML authors are representative of machine learning but not of the field of artificial intelligence as a whole”. There was also evidence of apparent inconsistencies in estimates of AI timelines as a result of small changes to how questions were asked, providing further reason to wonder how meaningful these experts’ predictions were. https://web.archive.org/web/20171030220008/https://aiimpacts.org/some-survey-results/",,"x risk,AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-05-24T00:00:00.000Z","2017-05-24T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"""the probability of AI-induced existential risk"" (but from context, I believe this actually meant the probability of an AI-induced existential catastrophe)",50,,"Buck Schlegris","Buck Schlegris",,,"x risk,AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Amount by which risk of failure to align AI (using only a narrow conception of alignment) reduces the expected value of the future",10,,"Paul Christiano","Paul Christiano","Christiano says: ""I made up 10%, it’s kind of a random number."" And ""All of the numbers I’m going to give are very made up though. If you asked me a second time you’ll get all different numbers.""",,"x risk,AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2019-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Chance that ""Humans will go extinct within millions of years for some reason other than AGI""",10,,"Pablo","Pablo",,,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-09-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-09-14T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I live in a ""future"" computer simulation as I write this.",5,,"Robin Hanson","Robin Hanson","Original question was: ""There's a five percent chance I live in a ""future"" computer simulation as I write this.""",,"wild-ideas","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2001-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2001-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Harry Halpin on the payroll of, or otherwise compromised by the NSA/FVEY",53,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-12T00:55:50.000Z","2016-09-12T00:55:50.000Z","2026-04-29T12:00:00.000Z"
"US + Russia only have 1,150 nuclear warheads as per START treaty",47,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-07T11:49:08.000Z","2016-09-07T11:49:08.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"consumer-level (if expensive) 2.5 micron resolution 3d printing in any material",66,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-07T11:47:16.000Z","2016-09-07T11:47:16.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"gene swap does happen at HOPE 12",69,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-09-03T22:18:12.000Z","2016-09-03T22:18:12.000Z","2019-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
">1.561% of global energy use for 2017 will be solar according to IEA ",53,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-31T10:46:02.000Z","2016-08-31T10:46:02.000Z","2018-09-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Federal government of Canada passes law banning encryption use",54,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-20T22:09:44.000Z","2016-08-20T22:09:44.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Federal government of Canada passes law mandating divulging passwords",64,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-20T22:08:40.000Z","2016-08-20T22:08:40.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"someone markets a robotic 'teddy fuxpin' terry ruxpin clone.",73,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-18T22:51:07.000Z","2016-08-18T22:51:07.000Z","2022-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"It will be generally agreed that a meeting occurred between Trump and the Secret Service during 2016 August regarding his comments on the second amendment.",90,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-11T09:42:26.000Z","2016-08-11T09:42:26.000Z","2038-08-11T14:42:26.000Z"
"Tico
1. Deliver on time 80%
2. Be well received 70%
https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/mobvoi/ticwatch-2-the-most-interactive-smartwatch/description",60,,"Shekerev","Shekerev",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-06T15:31:00.000Z","2016-08-06T15:31:00.000Z","2016-10-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity by 2100.",50,,"Toby Ord","Toby Ord","Predictor notes: ""With that number, I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about this. Actually, my first degree was in computer science, and I’ve been involved in artificial intelligence for a long time, although it’s not what I did my PhD on. But, if you ask the typical AI expert’s view of the chance that we develop smarter than human AGI, artificial general intelligence, this century is about 50%. If you survey the public, which has been done, it’s about 50%. So, my 50% is both based on the information I know actually about what’s going on in AI, and also is in line with all of the relevant outside views. It feels difficult to have a wildly different number on that. The onus would be on the other person.""",,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-07T00:00:00.000Z","2020-03-07T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Chance of a full-scale nuclear war by 2120.",5,,"Toby Ord","Toby Ord",,,"nuclear","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-07T00:00:00.000Z","2020-03-07T00:00:00.000Z","2120-03-07T00:00:00.000Z"
"Chance that ""the first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem"".",30,,"Rohin Shah","Rohin Shah","Predictor note: ""There’s some chance that the first thing we try just works and we don’t even need to solve any sort of alignment problem. It might just be fine. This is not implausible to me. Maybe that’s 30% or something.""","Note: 2100-01-01 is used as the default date as no resolution date was specified.","AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-15T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-15T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Chance we have ""good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important"".",30,,"Buck Schlegris","Buck Schlegris","Predictor note: ""I haven’t actually written down these numbers since I last changed my mind about a lot of the inputs to them, so maybe I’m being really dumb. I guess, it feels to me that in fast takeoff worlds, we are very sad unless we have competitive alignment techniques, and so then we’re just only okay if we have these competitive alignment techniques. I guess I would say that I’m something like 30% on us having good competitive alignment techniques by the time that it’s important, which incidentally is higher than Rohin I think. [...] So I’m like 30% that we can just solve the AI alignment problem in this excellent way, such that anyone who wants to can have a little extra cost and then make AI systems that are aligned. I feel like in worlds where we did that, it’s pretty likely that things are reasonably okay.""","Note: 2100-01-01 is used as the default date as no resolution date was specified.","AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-15T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-15T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"As of January 1, 2021, Russia to have second most number of active nuclear powered subs out of any country. ",75,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-07T18:45:42.000Z","2015-07-07T18:45:42.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russian troops boots on the ground in Estonia in active combat operations",37,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-25T01:47:36.000Z","2016-07-25T01:47:36.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Eastern Latvia becomes its own country/Latvia splits into at least 2 countries",35,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-25T01:37:22.000Z","2016-07-25T01:37:22.000Z","2021-07-24T12:00:00.000Z"
"Russian ""peacekeepers"" on the ground in Latvia",59,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-25T01:35:28.000Z","2016-07-25T01:35:28.000Z","2021-07-24T12:00:00.000Z"
"Uprising/civil strife/coup/etc in latvia makes international headlines ",59,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-25T01:33:48.000Z","2016-07-25T01:33:48.000Z","2021-07-24T12:00:00.000Z"
"Hans Dehmelt will become a centenarian",20,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-10T06:22:00.000Z","2015-07-10T06:22:00.000Z","2022-09-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"Difference in average math score on SAT for males and females in 2016 will be less or equal than 10 points.
Background: http://freakonomics.com/podcast/gender-barriers/",40,,"rationalnoodles","rationalnoodles",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-23T19:04:27.000Z","2016-07-23T19:04:27.000Z","2017-01-01T09:00:00.000Z"
"It will be generally agreed that had Ukraine been invaded by Russia, there would have been guerilla warfare/insurgency against the occupation ",99,,"two2thehead","two2thehead",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-08T18:53:31.000Z","2016-07-08T18:53:31.000Z","2066-07-08T17:00:00.000Z"
"Andreessen Horowitz, August Capital still exists as a VC firms in 2018 both with greater or equal value on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_venture_capital_firms of 2016 (950M, 2500M) (or have merged with larger VC entity)",56,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-08T16:30:31.000Z","2016-07-08T16:30:31.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"DirecTV and Amdocs publicly sign another agreement extending cooperation between two companies, or one buys the other",45,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-08T16:07:41.000Z","2016-07-08T16:07:41.000Z","2018-09-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"TTC makes its goal of 8$M more from metropass users in 2017 than in 2016. ",55,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-08T15:46:55.000Z","2016-07-08T15:46:55.000Z","2018-09-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 4.28% GDP growth rate for Zhongguo for 2015- 2024. ",5,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-01-04T02:27:11.000Z","2016-01-04T02:27:11.000Z","2024-12-16T23:00:00.000Z"
"yourmorals.org to last through 2025",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T05:41:01.000Z","2015-07-11T05:41:01.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"LSD to no longer be a Schedule I drug by 2030",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T05:47:44.000Z","2015-07-11T05:47:44.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Morocco withdraws from Western Sahara by 2020",10,,"elephantower","elephantower",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-12T02:25:45.000Z","2016-07-12T02:25:45.000Z","2020-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Have aliens visited Earth and/or had intentional 2-way communication with humans in the past century?",0.003,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-09T05:02:04.892Z","2020-12-09T05:02:04.884Z","2100-01-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"greater than 600,000BTC worth of payments occur from mobile devices during 2017, whether on bitcoin or other payment system",95,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-07-08T16:11:05.000Z","2016-07-08T16:11:05.000Z","2018-04-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"only if for profit",30,,"jungwon","jungwon","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-11T20:53:22.760Z","2020-12-11T20:53:22.751Z","2020-12-18T05:00:00.000Z"
"In 2025, $1000 should buy you a computer able to calculate at 10^16 cycles per second (10,000 trillion cycles per second), the equivalent processing speed of the human brain. [Peter Diamandis]",30,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T06:07:00.000Z","2015-07-11T06:07:00.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The biggest bottleneck to users creating actions will be that they incorrectly think the action will work poorly despite their best efforts at making it good",7,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","In January 2021","ide-user-actions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-17T02:00:19.388Z","2020-12-17T02:00:19.383Z","2021-12-17T08:00:00.000Z"
"The biggest bottleneck to users creating actions will be that they incorrectly think the action will work poorly despite their best efforts at making it good",5,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","I think people will be eager to play around with IDE","In January 2021","ide-user-actions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-17T02:00:37.670Z","2020-12-17T02:00:19.383Z","2021-12-17T08:00:00.000Z"
"Engaged MonJune27 - 45% opens, 2% clicks",70,,"polyopticon","polyopticon",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-26T02:38:57.000Z","2016-06-26T02:38:57.000Z","2016-06-28T02:38:57.000Z"
"commercial scale, ""netpower"" allam cycle plant completed & ready for operation",62,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-25T19:10:44.000Z","2016-06-25T19:10:44.000Z","2017-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Buying LinkedIn will turn out to be a bad decision for Microsoft!",75,,"hoka","hoka",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-25T05:52:06.000Z","2016-06-25T05:52:06.000Z","2021-06-25T05:52:06.000Z"
"gnxp.com to last to 2025",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T05:41:39.000Z","2015-07-11T05:41:39.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""second attack"" in Santa Monica either incorrect/didn't happen, or outright media/government fabrication ",42,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-13T04:05:39.000Z","2016-06-13T04:05:39.000Z","2019-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Steam to remain as #1 digital distribution platform for gaming by 2025",60,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T05:50:19.000Z","2015-07-11T05:50:19.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Dog Aging Study (http://dogagingproject.com/project-details/ ) to show that rapamycin will improve healthspan of middle-aged dogs by at least 2 years",75,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T05:52:13.000Z","2015-07-11T05:52:13.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on me submitting to Forecasting Innovation Prize: I win an award",45,,"Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-15T23:43:25.221Z","2020-12-15T23:43:25.215Z","2021-02-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on me submitting to Forecasting Innovation Prize: I win first place",15,,"Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-15T23:43:59.412Z","2020-12-15T23:43:59.404Z","2021-02-01T05:00:00.000Z"
"2015-2016 El Nino to be stronger than 1997-1998 El Nino",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T05:58:34.000Z","2015-07-11T05:58:34.000Z","2017-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"2015-2016 El Nino to be stronger than 1997-1998 El Nino",60,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-22T05:08:47.000Z","2015-07-11T05:58:34.000Z","2017-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"""If present trends continue, over the next ten years almost $500 billion of Title IV loans will have been
funneled to this industry. We estimate total defaults of $275 billion, and because of fees associated with defaults, for profit students will owe $3",65,,"gwern","gwern",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2010-08-17T08:11:34.000Z","2010-08-17T08:11:34.000Z","2021-02-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Wolfram Research will last through 2025",60,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T06:02:31.000Z","2015-07-11T06:02:31.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Cystic Fibrosis to be a curable illness by 2025",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T06:13:53.000Z","2015-07-11T06:13:53.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A study will be done showing that cannabidiol increases lifespan in at least one model organism by 2025",35,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T06:23:49.000Z","2015-07-11T06:23:49.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kea (Nestor Notabilis) to go extinct in the wild by 2030",6,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-06-05T03:59:10.749Z","2015-07-11T06:26:19.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Kea (Nestor Notabilis) to go extinct in the wild by 2030",20,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T06:26:19.000Z","2015-07-11T06:26:19.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bonobos to go extinct in the wild by 2030",30,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T06:26:46.000Z","2015-07-11T06:26:46.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"5-MAPB to be researched as a possible treatment for at least one medical condition (autism, anxiety, PTSD, etc) by 2025",35,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T06:31:31.000Z","2015-07-11T06:31:31.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"We will reach ""longevity escape velocity"" by 2035",30,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T06:32:43.000Z","2015-07-11T06:32:43.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Runescape will still exist by 2025",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T06:34:36.000Z","2015-07-11T06:34:36.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Government of Nova Scotia releases Accessibility legislation that meets CCLA's approval",44,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-05T08:29:59.000Z","2016-06-05T08:29:59.000Z","2016-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be no paper newspapers left in the US by 2022 (http://rationalconspiracy.com/2012/11/23/the-real-america-of-2022/)",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T06:39:32.000Z","2015-07-11T06:39:32.000Z","2023-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Yale to become a top-15 Computer Science program by 2025",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T06:44:01.000Z","2015-07-11T06:44:01.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Quora to be more popular than reddit by 2020",10,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T06:53:18.000Z","2015-07-11T06:53:18.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Quora to be more popular than reddit by 2020",30,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T10:55:03.000Z","2015-07-11T06:53:18.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Edward O. Wilson to become a centenarian",20,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T06:55:24.000Z","2015-07-11T06:55:23.000Z","2029-06-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"2017 Cloud Cover for continental US more than it was in 2007",58,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-26T13:21:59.000Z","2016-05-26T13:21:59.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will submit my capstone project for accounting on the fourth Monday of June, 2016",78,,"helldalgo","helldalgo",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-23T03:10:43.000Z","2016-05-23T03:10:43.000Z","2016-06-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"SNPs to explain at least 5% of the variability for autism will be identified by 2020",30,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-21T20:37:44.000Z","2016-05-21T20:37:44.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Yoshua Bengio to eventually cash out into private industry (at least once)",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-21T20:30:07.000Z","2016-05-21T20:30:07.000Z","2040-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Starcraft 2: Heart of the Swarm to be on sale for under $20 on any day during 2016",55,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-21T20:24:49.000Z","2016-05-21T20:24:49.000Z","2017-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"GDF-11 to be demonstrated to convincingly increase lifespan by 2025",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-21T20:20:14.000Z","2016-05-21T20:20:14.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Sluggish cognitive tempo to be recognized as a disorder independent of ADHD in the DSM-6",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T18:44:38.000Z","2015-07-11T18:44:38.000Z","2029-12-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"Canadian government will pass an ""Anti-Cyberbullying law"", and this will be used to enforce copyrights",58,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-10T05:29:29.000Z","2016-06-10T05:29:29.000Z","2041-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"80,000 Hours' blog will have a hackernews comment with >10% of the post's net upvotes that is critical of the volume of popups on the 80,000 Hours site.",60,,"RyanCarey","RyanCarey",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-07T07:36:24.000Z","2016-06-07T07:36:24.000Z","2016-06-09T12:00:00.000Z"
"uniforms aside, I will not wear sweatpants more than half the days in 2019",90,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-06-03T07:14:29.000Z","2016-06-03T07:14:29.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The biggest bottleneck to users creating actions will be that it's generally too much overhead to think of lots of training examples",21,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","In January 2021","ide-user-actions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-17T01:59:47.455Z","2020-12-17T01:59:47.449Z","2021-02-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Electronic Arts to survive to 2025",55,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T20:14:10.000Z","2015-07-11T20:14:10.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Nigeria to have a larger population than the U.S. (or at least once) by 2050 (http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2013/jun/13/nigeria-larger-population-us-2050)",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T20:22:34.000Z","2015-07-11T20:22:34.000Z","2051-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be more janitors in the U.S. in 2022 than there will be in 2012 (http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_104.htm )",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T20:27:50.000Z","2015-07-11T20:27:50.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be more elementary school teachers in 2025 than there are in 2012 (http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_104.htm )",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T20:28:39.000Z","2015-07-11T20:28:39.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Half of more than 4,000 universities in the U.S. (that existed in 2013) to be in bankruptcy by 2028 - Clayton Christensen",65,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T20:30:51.000Z","2015-07-11T20:30:51.000Z","2029-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Extra GDP contributions from syrian refugees and their descendants in EU has paid for the monetary cost of bringing them in",58,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-22T15:51:50.000Z","2016-05-22T15:51:50.000Z","2066-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"HeavenGames to last to (at least) 2020",60,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-21T20:25:33.000Z","2016-05-21T20:25:33.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Age of Empires II HD: The African Kingdoms will be on sale for under $3 on any day during 2016",55,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-21T20:24:21.000Z","2016-05-21T20:24:21.000Z","2017-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"cannabinoids to be demonstrated to increase lifespan in at least one model organism by 2025",60,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-21T20:22:56.000Z","2016-05-21T20:22:56.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"parabiosis will be demonstrated to increase average human lifespan",45,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-21T20:22:21.000Z","2016-05-21T20:22:21.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"rapamycin to be demonstrated to increase *average* lifespan in dogs by 2026",70,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-21T20:20:46.000Z","2016-05-21T20:20:46.000Z","2027-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ed Boyden will win the Nobel Prize (in any category)",44,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-21T20:17:57.000Z","2016-05-21T20:17:57.000Z","2066-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Vaselgel makes it to market by 2017",17,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-20T21:17:59.000Z","2016-05-20T21:17:59.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Working system wherein VR/AR is actually presented to the user from within the nervous system",58,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-03T20:37:22.000Z","2016-05-03T20:37:22.000Z","2041-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
">=1.6 million human genomes sequenced",59,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-20T16:55:03.000Z","2016-05-20T16:55:03.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will get a first in at least three-quarters of my modules",35,,"RoryS","RoryS",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-15T16:49:05.000Z","2016-05-15T16:49:05.000Z","2016-09-20T11:00:00.000Z"
"Jane Goodall to do IAmA on reddit by 2025",70,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T07:02:57.000Z","2015-07-11T07:02:57.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"GTA 6 will be set in Chicago",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T07:12:50.000Z","2015-07-11T07:12:50.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"PDFy will stay intact to 2020",60,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T08:27:36.000Z","2015-07-11T08:27:36.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"DRM-free games now selling more copies than DRM-encumbered ones",40,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-10T14:19:47.000Z","2016-05-10T14:19:47.000Z","2022-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bisphenol A to be classified as a IARC Group 2A/2B carcinogen by 2030",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T20:18:05.000Z","2015-07-11T20:18:05.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Slashdot to exist through 2025",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T20:22:57.000Z","2015-07-11T20:22:57.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"SomethingAwful to exist through 2025",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T20:23:21.000Z","2015-07-11T20:23:21.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one of the Gemini astronauts will become a centenarian",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-11T20:50:53.000Z","2015-07-11T20:50:53.000Z","2033-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"SKTechworks closes, moves to cheaper location, merges with another larger entity",59,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-11T20:58:36.000Z","2016-05-11T20:58:36.000Z","2017-12-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"The biggest bottleneck to users creating actions will be that it's too disruptive to go from ""Using runs"" mode to ""Come up with training examples to make this action work"" mode",10,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","In January 2021","ide-user-actions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-17T01:59:06.613Z","2020-12-17T01:59:06.608Z","2021-02-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Akasha Project less than 100,000 active users",92,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-05-06T19:42:32.000Z","2016-05-06T19:42:32.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Peak global anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in 2028",60,,"Paul.David.Carr","Paul.David.Carr",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-29T18:06:20.000Z","2016-04-29T18:06:20.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"feedly will be more popular in 2020 than 2015",25,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T03:04:50.000Z","2015-07-13T03:04:50.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Major personalities on predictionbook (gwern, JoshuaZ, etc) will migrate over to another prediction-based website by 2020",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T03:05:29.000Z","2015-07-13T03:05:29.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Poker to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T03:21:25.000Z","2015-07-13T03:21:25.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one WWII veteran will live to see Artificial General Intelligence",30,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T10:44:15.000Z","2015-07-13T10:44:15.000Z","2045-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"At least one Apollo astronaut to live to see Artificial General Intelligence",5,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T10:44:50.000Z","2015-07-13T10:44:50.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"reddit to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",35,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T10:53:48.000Z","2015-07-13T10:51:45.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"reddit to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T10:51:45.000Z","2015-07-13T10:51:45.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Quora to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",60,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T10:52:07.000Z","2015-07-13T10:52:07.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Age of Empires II to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",20,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T10:54:28.000Z","2015-07-13T10:54:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Age of Empires II to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",10,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T10:55:56.000Z","2015-07-13T10:54:28.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"College Confidential to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",20,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T11:00:16.000Z","2015-07-13T11:00:16.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Miami population to be higher in 2030 than 2010",30,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T11:04:41.000Z","2015-07-13T11:04:41.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"San Francisco population to be higher in 2030 than 2010",60,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T11:05:12.000Z","2015-07-13T11:05:12.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Seattle population to be higher in 2030 than 2010",75,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T11:05:32.000Z","2015-07-13T11:05:32.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Seattle population to be higher in 2030 than 2010",65,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T21:50:25.000Z","2015-07-13T11:05:32.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The biggest bottleneck to users creating actions will be that they correctly think the action will work poorly despite their best efforts at making it good",45,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","In January 2021","ide-user-actions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-17T02:01:39.756Z","2020-12-17T02:01:39.744Z","2021-02-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"The biggest bottleneck to users creating actions will be that they correctly think the action will work poorly despite their best efforts at making it good",30,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","Want to assign more probability to other possibilities","In January 2021","ide-user-actions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-17T02:03:33.655Z","2020-12-17T02:01:39.744Z","2021-02-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"The biggest bottleneck to users creating actions will be something that I didn't create a specific question for",30,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","In January 2021","ide-user-actions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-17T02:03:15.585Z","2020-12-17T02:03:15.579Z","2021-02-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"The biggest bottleneck to users creating actions will be something that I didn't create a specific question for",0,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","In January 2021","ide-user-actions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-17T02:03:35.300Z","2020-12-17T02:03:15.579Z","2021-02-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"The biggest bottleneck to users creating actions will be something that I didn't create a specific question for",30,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","In January 2021","ide-user-actions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-17T02:03:41.631Z","2020-12-17T02:03:15.579Z","2021-02-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"Phoenix, AZ population higher in 2030 than 2010",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T11:06:28.000Z","2015-07-13T11:06:28.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"None of the hackathon (Consensus 2016) winners include a threat model as part of their entry.",58,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-25T06:28:09.000Z","2016-04-25T06:28:09.000Z","2017-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"William Bennett imprisoned in 2017",40,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-21T09:02:44.000Z","2016-04-21T09:02:44.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Abrupt drop off found in space dust sizes above 2.176 × 10E−5 g",50,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-21T01:52:34.000Z","2016-04-21T01:52:34.000Z","2400-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will get the GROW",85,,"spicedpiano","spicedpiano",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-20T06:58:17.000Z","2016-04-20T06:58:17.000Z","2016-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will do a postgrad degree in computer science in 2017-18",22,,"RoryS","RoryS",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-19T09:15:49.000Z","2016-04-19T09:15:49.000Z","2017-09-20T11:00:00.000Z"
"I will do a postgrad degree in neuroscience or cognitive science in 2017-18",34,,"RoryS","RoryS",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-19T09:15:12.000Z","2016-04-19T09:15:12.000Z","2017-09-20T11:00:00.000Z"
"Haskell to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T11:09:26.000Z","2015-07-13T11:09:26.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Portland, OR to have higher population in 2030 than 2010",75,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T11:09:42.000Z","2015-07-13T11:09:42.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Portland, OR to have higher population in 2030 than 2010",60,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea","non-zero chance of Cascadia earthquake (though that might not decrease it by much b/c damage is one-time)",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T21:49:32.000Z","2015-07-13T11:09:42.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Amphetamines to be more popular in 2025 than 2015",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T11:10:32.000Z","2015-07-13T11:10:32.000Z","2026-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Matlab to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T11:11:31.000Z","2015-07-13T11:11:31.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"A male or female friend of mine will marry a man, only to have it revealed later that he's transitioning to being a woman [in that order]",8,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-26T17:29:48.000Z","2016-04-26T17:29:48.000Z","2066-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Twitter to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T11:17:47.000Z","2015-07-13T11:17:33.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Twitter to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015",35,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T11:17:56.000Z","2015-07-13T11:17:33.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Twitter to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015",30,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T11:17:33.000Z","2015-07-13T11:17:33.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chen-Ning Yang to become a centenarian",20,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T03:10:09.000Z","2015-07-13T03:10:09.000Z","2023-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"League of Legends to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",35,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T03:11:07.000Z","2015-07-13T03:11:07.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Chess to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",45,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T03:22:11.000Z","2015-07-13T03:22:11.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Soccer to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T03:22:32.000Z","2015-07-13T03:22:32.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will do a postgrad degree in anthropology in 2017-18",8,,"RoryS","RoryS",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-19T09:16:54.000Z","2016-04-19T09:16:54.000Z","2017-09-20T11:00:00.000Z"
"I will do a postgrad degree in philosophy in 2017-18",31,,"RoryS","RoryS",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-19T09:16:12.000Z","2016-04-19T09:16:12.000Z","2017-09-20T11:00:00.000Z"
"Football to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",30,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T03:22:44.000Z","2015-07-13T03:22:44.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Baseball to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",30,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T03:22:52.000Z","2015-07-13T03:22:52.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"James D. Watson to become a centenarian",15,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T03:23:10.000Z","2015-07-13T03:23:10.000Z","2028-04-07T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will use predictionbook at least once a week.",32,,"memoriesofbutter","memoriesofbutter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-16T20:59:34.000Z","2015-10-16T20:59:34.000Z","2016-04-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"I will learn enough perspective to improve my drawing.",10,,"memoriesofbutter","memoriesofbutter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-16T20:36:36.000Z","2015-10-16T20:36:36.000Z","2016-04-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"I will acquire enough javascript knowledge to contribute to a GitHub project.",35,,"memoriesofbutter","memoriesofbutter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-16T20:35:04.000Z","2015-10-16T20:35:04.000Z","2016-04-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"LiveJournal to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T10:53:03.000Z","2015-07-13T10:53:02.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"More mergers & acquisitions in bitcoin in 2017 than any previous year",57,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-18T17:00:53.000Z","2016-04-18T17:00:53.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Either Graphene EMI Shielding or one of the other 85 ""key technologies""  is successfully put on market by at least one Korean firm ",65,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T21:19:20.000Z","2016-04-15T21:19:20.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"8 million accounts on ripple networks",88,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T15:08:15.000Z","2016-04-15T15:05:07.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"8 million accounts on ripple networks",58,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-15T15:05:07.000Z","2016-04-15T15:05:07.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, energy from a fusion reactor powers at least a thousand homes.",10,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,,"energy","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, compute costs two orders of magnitude less than it did in 2019.",20,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"Author note: The intent is to measure compute as used for AI training. If there is a standardly accepted metric for this sort of thing, use it. If there is controversy, use the metric that is closer to ""number of basic operations per dollar, when purchased in bulk quantities similar to those of the largest AI training runs.""","tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"At least one hundred million people use a VR headset on 2030/9/22.",60,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,,"tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"At least 500,000,000 people play an augmented reality MMO (like Pokemon go) in the month of Sep 2030.",15,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,,"gaming","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Gift from S is a fiction book.",24,,"memoriesofbutter","memoriesofbutter",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-24T16:22:02.000Z","2015-12-24T16:22:02.000Z","2015-12-28T17:00:00.000Z"
"Sandia 10MW CO2 turbine tests success",60,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-14T05:26:14.000Z","2016-04-14T05:26:14.000Z","2019-10-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By 2038 less than 3.6% children under 5 will be underweight globally.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-21T11:06:40.000Z","2015-12-21T11:06:40.000Z","2038-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Artemis has teleoperated into a physical robot ""avatar"" of some sort at least ten times in the year 2030.",10,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"Artemis: the daughter of the question author; born 2019/9/22. ","tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat's National Highways to reach 150 000km in length from 100 000km today.",90,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-19T08:18:18.000Z","2015-12-19T08:18:18.000Z","2016-12-25T23:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, an entire human brain has been uploaded, with enough fidelity to seem like the original human.",10,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"Author note: even if there are personality differences, mental problems, memory loss, ...","tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, there exist AI persuasion tools of similar potency (though of course different effects) to alcohol.",20,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"Author note: i.e. getting someone tipsy makes it easier to get them to sleep with you, though not always and not much. persuasion tools for other objectives, but with similar strength, is what I have in mind.","AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Something like Google Glass is used by at least a million people on 2030/9/22.",40,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,,"tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, at least 5% of Artemis' plant-based food is grown almost entirely with artificial light.",15,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"Artemis: the daughter of the question author; born 2019/9/22. ","science","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030/9/22, no one in Artemis' family will have used a physical credit card in the last week.",40,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Daniel Kokotajlo",,"Artemis: the daughter of the question author; born 2019/9/22. ","tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-05T00:00:00.000Z","2030-09-22T00:00:00.000Z"
"Ampyx prototype AP3 deployed for testing",49,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-14T00:51:52.000Z","2016-04-14T00:51:52.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bank of Canada increases overnight rate over 2.5% in 2017",63,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-13T23:47:07.000Z","2016-04-13T23:47:07.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Over 30% of Canadians 2 payments or more behind on mortgage payments at any point in 2017",65,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-13T23:43:04.000Z","2016-04-13T23:43:04.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Commercially available hard disks utilize heat-assisted magnetic recording ",58,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-13T21:15:11.000Z","2016-04-13T21:15:11.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"24% or more of coral reefs in asia are gone relative to 2007",68,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-12T02:18:23.000Z","2016-04-12T02:18:23.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Staock market will finish down for the year",70,,"jaaksbus","jaaksbus",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-02T19:46:10.000Z","2015-10-02T19:46:10.000Z","2015-10-04T16:35:00.000Z"
"By 2060 under assumptions of ETH and that PH does not collapse, and PH != PSPACE != EXP, proven that factoring in Beta_P^GI / poly or that factoring in Beta_P^MSCP.",55,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-29T17:02:28.000Z","2015-09-29T17:02:28.000Z","2061-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will not be able to sell on market referenced in claim 177878",92,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-12T02:05:35.000Z","2016-04-12T02:05:35.000Z","2018-01-02T12:00:00.000Z"
"Avogadro project fixes value of the Kilogram before Planck constant is set in 2017",59,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-11T23:30:41.000Z","2016-04-11T23:30:41.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Construction & housing in the heart of ""Grand Paris"" project starts by 2017",51,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-11T20:46:54.000Z","2016-04-11T20:46:54.000Z","2018-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Real-money prediction markets are currently significantly more accurate than Facebook Forecast on the same questions",99,,"Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland",,"","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-19T17:06:11.842Z","2020-12-19T17:03:48.378Z","2120-12-19T05:00:00.000Z"
"6183331e9007a573863190a476a3abb8 quits SaskTel",43,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-06T01:39:47.000Z","2016-04-06T01:39:47.000Z","2020-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The biggest bottleneck to users creating actions will be that the action creation interface is confusing",17,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","In January 2021, assuming we don't improve the interface","ide-user-actions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-17T01:58:19.969Z","2020-12-17T01:57:27.081Z","2021-02-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"The biggest bottleneck to users creating actions will be that the action creation interface is confusing",5,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","In January 2021, assuming we don't improve the interface","ide-user-actions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-17T01:57:27.087Z","2020-12-17T01:57:27.081Z","2021-02-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"A major fast food restaurant, or a 3rd-party company attempts drone delivery within 5 years. (Judgment right if available in more than one area)",75,,"jesselevine","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-25T04:15:30.000Z","2016-03-25T04:15:30.000Z","2021-03-25T04:15:30.000Z"
"4% of my 2031 savings (including rental property value) will be greater than my 2031 expenses",65,,"trishume","trishume",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-07T02:23:31.000Z","2016-04-07T02:23:31.000Z","2031-01-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least one Sask Party MLA elected in 2016 put in jail ",58,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-06T01:24:54.000Z","2016-04-06T01:24:54.000Z","2020-04-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Malnutrition trends in Bharat:
Stunting -Under 3 children in 2022 will be under 32.5%.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-16T06:38:13.000Z","2015-12-16T06:38:13.000Z","2022-12-17T07:22:00.000Z"
"This prediction won't have a confidence rate between any interval of length 10 I predict in this prediction within 15 days. Let's say for example 85-95",100,,"damaru","damaru",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-15T13:32:56.000Z","2015-08-15T13:32:56.000Z","2015-08-30T13:32:56.000Z"
"Norway will stop regular postal delivery to private houses of regular people by 2030",70,,"silacoid","silacoid",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-31T20:04:16.000Z","2016-03-31T20:04:16.000Z","2030-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Brock Osweiler is out of NFL within 7 years",7,,"jesselevine","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-13T22:10:27.000Z","2016-03-13T22:10:26.000Z","2023-03-13T22:10:26.000Z"
"Higher tuition in 2015 causes stress in students in canada",99,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-11T06:56:21.000Z","2015-12-11T06:56:21.000Z","2016-08-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Higher pressure on  unions due to higher pressure on professors in canada (in 2015.)",68,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-11T06:54:28.000Z","2015-12-11T06:54:28.000Z","2017-01-08T12:00:00.000Z"
"Of the total-coloring conjecture, list coloring conjecture,  the EFL conjecture, and  the Hardwiger conjecture, by Jan 1, 2042, either a triplet of them shown to imply the other, or one of them shown to be undecidable. ",52,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-15T20:37:08.000Z","2015-08-15T20:37:08.000Z","2042-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The Earth (after climate change) to become as hot as the Eocene Hothouse (at least once)",25,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T10:56:46.000Z","2015-07-13T10:56:46.000Z","2099-01-01T23:00:00.000Z"
"Harvard to have more undergraduates in 2020 than 2015",55,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T10:58:04.000Z","2015-07-13T10:58:04.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will still have a bivalvegan, or mostly bivalvegan (defined as buying meat/dairy products, if at all, perhaps once/twice a month) diet in three years time.",75,,"RoryS","RoryS",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-10T21:19:33.000Z","2015-12-10T21:19:33.000Z","2018-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Harvard to make tuition free for all undergraduates (at least once) by 2030",25,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T10:58:47.000Z","2015-07-13T10:58:47.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Coursera to become more popular in 2020 than 2015",55,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T11:00:35.000Z","2015-07-13T11:00:35.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat's millionaires,multi millionaires, UHNWI ($30 M+), centa-millionaires(100 M+), billionaires will at least double from 2015-2025. -- The Wealth Report,Knight Frank.",95,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-09T14:33:30.000Z","2016-03-09T14:33:30.000Z","2025-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
">0 serotonergic drugs withdrawn from US market, OR loses >0 of its FDA approved indication (before 2020)",18,,"jesselevine","jesselevine",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-08T01:11:07.000Z","2016-03-08T01:11:07.000Z","2020-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Graphnano's bat wont be a bluff",66,,"artir","artir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-04-19T16:26:14.000Z","2016-03-08T00:42:36.000Z","2016-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Graphnano's bat wont be a bluff",56,,"artir","artir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-08-19T10:26:37.000Z","2016-03-08T00:42:36.000Z","2016-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Graphnano's bat wont be a bluff",86,,"artir","artir",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-08T00:42:36.000Z","2016-03-08T00:42:36.000Z","2016-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"UNSONG was created to incentivize name discovery, the same way that patents work for drugs in the real world, with the intention of providing an arsenal to fight Hell with",45,,"Temeraire","Temeraire",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-27T23:56:01.000Z","2016-03-07T04:26:31.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"UNSONG was created to incentivize name discovery, the same way that patents work for drugs in the real world, with the intention of providing an arsenal to fight Hell with",30,,"Temeraire","Temeraire",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-07T04:26:31.000Z","2016-03-07T04:26:31.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"UNSONG was created to incentivize name discovery, the same way that patents work for drugs in the real world.",70,,"Temeraire","Temeraire",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-27T23:53:20.000Z","2016-03-07T04:25:39.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"UNSONG was created to incentivize name discovery, the same way that patents work for drugs in the real world.",40,,"Temeraire","Temeraire",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-07T04:25:39.000Z","2016-03-07T04:25:39.000Z","2025-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"55% of CO² emitted in 2030 will be produced by states that have reached peak levels --World Resources Institute ",95,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-06T06:06:22.000Z","2016-03-06T06:06:22.000Z","2030-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Great Green Wall, a land restoration programme in the African Sahel over the next 10 years. Aims to restore more than 50 million hectares of land.",95,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-09T05:16:26.000Z","2015-12-09T05:16:26.000Z","2025-12-12T12:00:00.000Z"
"Global CO² emissions peak at 15.3Gt in 2029 --Bloomberg New Energy Finance",85,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-06T06:05:28.000Z","2016-03-06T06:05:28.000Z","2029-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"56% share of world generation for zero carbon energy sources(renewables+nuclear) by 2040.",75,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-06T06:04:29.000Z","2016-03-06T06:04:29.000Z","2040-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Fundamental Change to Debian Release Structure: No Longer Offers Both Stable & Testing Releases",19,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-20T03:35:48.000Z","2016-03-20T03:35:47.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Users will generate more useful actions if they create a bunch quickly rather than taking a careful craftspersonly approach to each action",64,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","Per unit time spent with IDE","ide-user-actions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-17T01:53:19.725Z","2020-12-17T01:53:19.719Z","2021-02-01T08:00:00.000Z"
"European Union long term growth rate will average 1.4% real gdp annually.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-19T05:19:37.000Z","2016-03-19T05:19:37.000Z","2040-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Peter Todd will agree Ripple Labs has released all necessary source code, including all validator code, to be ""Open Source"" ",15,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-16T22:35:00.000Z","2016-03-16T22:35:00.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Minneapolis population higher in 2030 than 2010",80,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T11:05:59.000Z","2015-07-13T11:05:59.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Users, not Ought, will do most of the work to create/improve the most-used actions",60,,"Ben Rachbach","Ben Rachbach","","On April 1, we'll look back at March

If we multiply how much each action was used * how much of the process of creating/improving each action was done by users vs. Ought employees/contractors, more than 1/2 will have been done by users","ide-user-actions","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T20:51:47.278Z","2020-12-16T20:51:47.272Z","2021-04-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Hierophant will be unable to perform a task he wishes to perform within the next 4 years due to akrasia. ",20,,"Hierophant","Hierophant",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-10-14T09:30:22.000Z","2015-10-14T09:30:22.000Z","2019-10-14T12:00:00.000Z"
"On Jan 1, 2017 there will be at most 3871377.25 bitcoin in addresses that have not been dormant for over a year",33,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-03T19:55:02.000Z","2016-03-03T19:55:02.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"OOTS: The Monster in the Darkness is an Uvuudaum.",33,,"Sniffnoy","Sniffnoy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-29T07:25:47.000Z","2016-02-29T07:25:47.000Z","2026-02-28T07:25:47.000Z"
"https://encipher.it?DI8w

thyroglossal duct cyst",90,,"eldorz","eldorz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-24T06:14:06.000Z","2016-02-24T06:14:06.000Z","2016-03-23T06:14:06.000Z"
"NTRU found to be fundamentally vulnerable to quantum computer based attacks by January 1, 2042. ",65,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-12T18:59:21.000Z","2015-08-12T18:59:21.000Z","2042-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Marijuana to be more popular in 2025 than 2015",75,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T11:07:57.000Z","2015-07-13T11:07:57.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank will pass the World Bank in terms of loans(billions of dollars per year) made.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-15T09:34:44.000Z","2015-12-15T09:34:44.000Z","2022-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Python to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T11:08:58.000Z","2015-07-13T11:08:58.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat's HDI will be > 0.856 by 2048.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-15T07:21:24.000Z","2015-12-15T07:21:24.000Z","2048-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Javascript to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",45,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T11:09:09.000Z","2015-07-13T11:09:09.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Java to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",35,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T11:09:17.000Z","2015-07-13T11:09:17.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"More and better quality medical research happens in 2016 vs. 2015",90,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-02T06:40:13.000Z","2016-03-02T06:40:13.000Z","2018-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Real ID act goes into phase iv, DHS REALID system forces all states to participate or bans citizens of them from international travel",5,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-02T06:24:44.000Z","2016-03-02T06:24:44.000Z","2017-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Yes",20,,"Static C","Static C","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-16T10:26:37.012Z","2020-12-16T10:26:37.007Z","2021-12-16T00:00:00.000Z"
"In all his bank accounts combined, my friend Keyan will have $1,000,000 in total by the time he turns 30.",55,,"Lissy","Lissy",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-11T16:29:55.000Z","2015-12-11T16:29:55.000Z","2018-03-30T17:00:00.000Z"
"In the beginning of 2016, it will be more difficult for a university to not provide civil servants/qualified workers than the beginning of 2015 in canada.",62,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1","I will look for data to measure this.",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-18T07:17:56.000Z","2015-12-11T07:01:49.000Z","2016-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"In the beginning of 2016, it will be more difficult for a university to not provide civil servants/qualified workers than the beginning of 2015 in canada.",62,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-11T07:01:50.000Z","2015-12-11T07:01:49.000Z","2016-07-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"increased tuition in canada causes increased stress on professors (contributing cause) (2015)",85,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-18T07:17:37.000Z","2015-12-11T06:52:42.000Z","2017-01-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"increased tuition in canada causes increased stress on professors (contributing cause) (2015)",85,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-11T06:52:42.000Z","2015-12-11T06:52:42.000Z","2017-01-02T10:00:00.000Z"
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",20,,"Jacob L","Jacob L","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T19:28:44.372Z","2020-11-20T19:28:44.365Z","2031-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will this question get an answer I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster"" in a month from now?",25,,"Jacob L","Jacob L","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T19:25:17.405Z","2020-11-20T19:25:17.399Z","2021-12-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will this question get an answer I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""",0,,"Jacob L","Jacob L","Set the wrong resolution date, so ignore this question... ","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T19:24:45.447Z","2020-11-20T19:23:37.871Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"Will this question get an answer I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""",20,,"Jacob L","Jacob L","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T19:23:37.876Z","2020-11-20T19:23:37.871Z","2021-11-20T08:00:00.000Z"
"test question for dataclip. Will it show up?",65,"NO","Eli Lifland","Eli Lifland","","","","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-20T17:03:20.976Z","2020-11-20T17:03:20.968Z","2021-11-20T05:00:00.000Z"
"I will pass comps.",85,,"spicedpiano","spicedpiano",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-10T19:37:18.000Z","2015-08-10T19:37:18.000Z","2016-09-20T12:00:00.000Z"
"Boson Sampling or Scattershot Boson Sampling with at least 10 photons to be performed by January 1, 2026.",65,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-10T17:36:27.000Z","2015-08-10T17:36:27.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?",1,,"Mati Roy","Isinlor",,,"mars","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","2018-10-06T00:00:00.000Z","2029-12-31T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will a nuclear fusion reactor reach ignition by 2051?",50,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy",,"Original continuous question on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/","nuclear-fusion","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","2020-06-01T00:00:00.000Z","2099-12-31T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will Mars have a permanent population of 10,000 before the Moon does?",63,,"Mati Roy","SynthBioWpnsKill1GHum2050",,,"mars","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","2019-09-24T00:00:00.000Z","2099-12-31T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will a nuclear fusion reactor hit an economic breakeven by 2057?",50,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy",,"Original continuous question on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-private-fusion-company-first-report-a-yearly-profit/","nuclear-fusion","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","2020-07-30T00:00:00.000Z","2099-12-31T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will the fusion energy gain factor of a fusion reactor reach a Q >= 1 before 2044?",75,,"Mati Roy","Mati Roy",,,"nuclear-fusion","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-07T00:00:00.000Z","2044-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, Zhongguo will have 27% of the estimated 300 million 25-34 yr old graduates",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-10T11:47:28.000Z","2015-12-10T11:47:28.000Z","2030-12-11T07:30:00.000Z"
"Intraventricular meningioma. EnCt2a1ef7138343c9cd291076e0a5b19fee144bfb46ba1ef7138343c9cd291076e0a0YNr1iyswgI
gd7IJ1lbbaFZll4SVwDdpShqI/T/keJywJVQ9h7r8vr3WGzg=IwEmS

Encrypted by https://encipher.it",90,,"eldorz","eldorz",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-03-01T21:30:58.000Z","2016-03-01T21:30:57.000Z","2016-03-15T21:30:57.000Z"
"Not only does 9th planet exist, but 10th planet hiding in the Kuiper belt somewhere too",66,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-29T18:56:15.000Z","2016-02-29T18:56:15.000Z","2266-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Europe and the United States will be lagging well behind with 8% and 4% of STEM graduates by 2030 respectively --OECD",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-10T11:46:40.000Z","2015-12-10T11:46:40.000Z","2030-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"In which university will you do your bachelor's?
Harvard, MIT, or UPenn",90,,"Hussain","Hussain",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-02T09:56:31.000Z","2015-08-02T09:56:31.000Z","2016-08-16T12:00:00.000Z"
"The world share for Zhongguo in science papers has increased from 5.6% in 2003 to 14% in 2012, and will reach at least 22.4% in 2021. This will be higher than the US percentage.
 — Web of Science, Thomson Reuters",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-09T04:16:20.000Z","2015-12-09T04:16:20.000Z","2021-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"EU's world share in science papers declined from 38.5% in 2003 to 35.5% in 2012, and by 2021 will be under 32.5%.  -- Web of Science, Thomson Reuters",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-09T03:49:47.000Z","2015-12-09T03:49:47.000Z","2021-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"TTC makes its goal of 7$M more from metropass users in 2016.",60,,"themusicgod1","themusicgod1",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-22T19:09:15.000Z","2016-02-22T19:09:15.000Z","2017-06-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Ketamine to be more popular in 2025 than 2015",60,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T11:11:13.000Z","2015-07-13T11:11:13.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will I still be in the US in 5 years?",56,,"Ethan Perez","Amanda N","","","amanda-personal","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T18:52:26.332Z","2020-11-17T17:54:20.151Z","2025-11-17T07:00:00.000Z"
"Apple to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T11:16:39.000Z","2015-07-13T11:16:39.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat will eliminate malaria by 2030.",95,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-14T02:18:16.000Z","2016-02-14T02:18:16.000Z","2030-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Microsoft to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015",35,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T11:24:56.000Z","2015-07-13T11:24:56.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will I go home to New Zealand for Christmas?",25,,"Ethan Perez","Amanda N","","","amanda-personal","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T18:50:37.568Z","2020-11-17T17:53:08.991Z","2020-12-26T07:00:00.000Z"
"2020s: In the middle of the 2020s, we will have effective software models of human intelligence",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ","The full text of Kurzweil's prediction, according to Wikipedia, is: ""Early in this decade, humanity will have the requisite hardware to emulate human intelligence within a $1000 personal computer, followed shortly by effective software models of human intelligence toward the middle of the decade: this will be enabled by the continuing exponential growth of brain-scanning technology, which is doubling in bandwidth, temporal and spatial resolution every year, and will be greatly amplified with nanotechnology, allowing us to have a detailed understanding of all the regions of the human brain and to aid in developing human-level machine intelligence by the end of this decade.""","AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2020s: Early in 2020s, humanity will have the requisite hardware to emulate human intelligence with a $1000 personal computer",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ","The full text of Kurzweil's prediction, according to Wikipedia, is: ""Early in this decade, humanity will have the requisite hardware to emulate human intelligence within a $1000 personal computer, followed shortly by effective software models of human intelligence toward the middle of the decade: this will be enabled by the continuing exponential growth of brain-scanning technology, which is doubling in bandwidth, temporal and spatial resolution every year, and will be greatly amplified with nanotechnology, allowing us to have a detailed understanding of all the regions of the human brain and to aid in developing human-level machine intelligence by the end of this decade.""","AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2099: The pace of technological change continues to accelerate as the 22nd century nears",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2099-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2099: Money has deflated in value, meaning all sorts of goods and services have become cheaper.",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2099-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2099: Artwork and music created by machines encompasses areas of the light spectrum and frequencies of sounds that normal humans cannot perceive",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2099-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2072: Picoengineering (technology on the scale of trillionths of a meter) becomes practical",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ","Context on picoengineering: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Picoengineering","AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2072-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"After AI passes the Turing Test, nonbiological intelligence will undergo exponential growth (Runaway AI)",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ","The full text of Kurzweil's prediction, according to Wikipedia, is: ""The decade in which ""Bridge Three"", the revolution in Nanotechnology, is to begin: allowing humans to vastly overcome the inherent limitations of biology, as no matter how much humanity fine-tunes its biology, they will never be as capable otherwise. This decade also marks the revolution in robotics (Strong AI), as an AI is expected to pass the Turing test by the last year of the decade (2029), meaning it can pass for a human being (though the first A.I. is likely to be the equivalent of an average, educated human). What follows then will be an era of consolidation in which nonbiological intelligence will undergo exponential growth (Runaway AI), eventually leading to the extraordinary expansion contemplated by the Singularity, in which human intelligence is multiplied by billions by the mid-2040s.""","AI,turing-test","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2099: The concept of ""life expectancy"" has become irrelevant to humans and machines thanks to medical immortality and advanced computers",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2099-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2099: ""Natural"" humans are protected from extermination. In spite of their shortcomings and frailties, humans are respected by AIs for giving rise to the machines",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2099-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2099: Organic human beings are a small minority of the intelligent life forms on Earth",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ","The full text of Kurzweil's prediction, according to Wikipedia, is: ""By 2099: Organic human beings are a small minority of the intelligent life forms on Earth. Even among the remaining Homo sapiens, the use of computerized implants that heavily augment normal abilities is ubiquitous and accepted as normal. The small fraction of humans who opt to remain ""natural"" and unmodified effectively exist on a lower and more limited plane of consciousness from everyone else, and thus find it impossible to fully interact with AIs and highly modified humans.""","AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2099-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"IBM to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015",38,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T11:25:12.000Z","2015-07-13T11:25:12.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Vine to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",40,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T11:35:54.000Z","2015-07-13T11:35:54.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will I write more than 5 blog posts next year?",25,,"Ethan Perez","Amanda N","","","amanda-personal","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T18:50:22.425Z","2020-11-17T18:01:13.176Z","2022-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"2049: Food is commonly ""assembled"" by nanomachines",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ","The full text of Kurzweil's prediction, according to Wikipedia, is: ""By 2049: Food is commonly ""assembled"" by nanomachines. This food is externally indistinguishable from ""natural"" food, but it can be made more wholesome since production can be controlled at the molecular level. This technology decouples food production from climate conditions and the availability of natural resources.""","AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2049-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2029: The manufacturing, agricultural and transportation sectors of the economy are almost entirely automated and employ very few humans. Across the world, poverty, war and disease are almost nonexistent thanks to technology alleviating want",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2029: AI passes the Turing test",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ","The full text of Kurzweil's prediction, according to Wikipedia, is: ""The decade in which ""Bridge Three"", the revolution in Nanotechnology, is to begin: allowing humans to vastly overcome the inherent limitations of biology, as no matter how much humanity fine-tunes its biology, they will never be as capable otherwise. This decade also marks the revolution in robotics (Strong AI), as an AI is expected to pass the Turing test by the last year of the decade (2029), meaning it can pass for a human being (though the first A.I. is likely to be the equivalent of an average, educated human). What follows then will be an era of consolidation in which nonbiological intelligence will undergo exponential growth (Runaway AI), eventually leading to the extraordinary expansion contemplated by the Singularity, in which human intelligence is multiplied by billions by the mid-2040s.""","AI,turing-test","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2099: Some humans at least as old as the Baby Boomers are still alive and well",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI,aging","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2099-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2099: The majority of interpersonal interactions occur in virtual environments",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ","The full text of Kurzweil's prediction, according to Wikipedia, is: ""2099: The majority of interpersonal interactions occur in virtual environments. Actually having two people physically meet in the real world to have a conversation or transact business without any technological interference is very rare.""","AI,virtual-reality","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2099-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2099: This new plasticity of consciousness and ability for beings to join minds seriously alters the nature of self-identity",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2099-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will my favorite book next year be a fiction book?",75,,"Ethan Perez","Amanda N","","Favorite as self-reported by me","amanda-personal","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T18:50:12.751Z","2020-11-17T18:01:38.348Z","2022-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"2099: Individual beings merge and separate constantly, making it impossible to determine how many “people” there are on Earth",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2099-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2099: The vast majority of the Earth's sentient beings are AIs that exist entirely as thinking computer programs capable of instantly moving from one computer to another across the Internet",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ","The full text of Kurzweil's prediction, according to Wikipedia, is: ""2099: The vast majority of the Earth's sentient beings are AIs that exist entirely as thinking computer programs capable of instantly moving from one computer to another across the Internet (or whatever equivalent exists in 2099). These computer-based beings are capable of manifesting themselves at will in the physical world by creating or taking over robotic bodies, with individual AIs also being capable of controlling multiple bodies at once.""","AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2099-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2029: The eyeglasses and headphones that used to deliver virtual reality are now obsolete thanks to computer implants that go into the eyes and ears",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ","The full text of Kurzweil's prediction, according to Wikipedia, is: ""2029: The eyeglasses and headphones that used to deliver virtual reality are now obsolete thanks to computer implants that go into the eyes and ears. The implants are either permanent or removable. They allow direct interface with computers, communications and Internet-based applications. The implants are also capable of recording what the user sees and hears.""","AI,virtual-reality,BCI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2029: Artificial Intelligences claim to be conscious and openly petition for recognition of the fact. Most people admit and accept this new truth",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2029: The rise of Artificial Intelligence creates a real ""robot rights"" movement, and there is open, public debate over what sorts of civil rights and legal protections machines should have",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ","The full text of Kurzweil's prediction, according to Wikipedia, is: ""2029: The rise of Artificial Intelligence creates a real ""robot rights"" movement, and there is open, public debate over what sorts of civil rights and legal protections machines should have. The existence of humans with heavy levels of cybernetic augmentation and of larger numbers of other people with less extreme cybernetic implants lead to further arguments over what constitutes a ""human being.""""","AI,rights","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2099: AIs frequently make ""backup copies"" of themselves, guaranteeing a sort of immortality should the original AI be killed",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI,immortality","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2099-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2099: Computer viruses are a major threat since most intelligent beings are software-based",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2099-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2099: Since knowledge and skills can be instantly downloaded and comprehended by most intelligent beings, the process of learning is compressed into an instantaneous affair instead of the years-long struggle normal humans experience",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ","The full text of Kurzweil's prediction, according to Wikipedia, is: ""2099: Since knowledge and skills can be instantly downloaded and comprehended by most intelligent beings, the process of learning is compressed into an instantaneous affair instead of the years-long struggle normal humans experience. Free from this time-consuming burden, AIs now focus their energies on making new discoveries and contributions. ""","AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2099-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2099: Machines have attained equal legal status with humans",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI,rights","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2099-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2029: Non-biological intelligence combines the subtlety and pattern recognition strength of human intelligence, with the speed, memory, and knowledge-sharing of machine intelligence.",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2029: Although computers routinely pass the Turing Test, controversy still persists over whether machines are as intelligent as humans in all areas",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI,turing-test","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2099: The human brain has been completely reverse engineered and all aspects of its functioning are understood.",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI,neuroscience","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2099-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2029: Reverse engineering of the human brain complete",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI,neuroscience","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2029: Hundreds of distinct sub-regions of the brain have been identified, and some of the algorithms for the development of these regions have been deciphered and incorporated into neural net computers",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ","The full text of Kurzweil's prediction, according to Wikipedia, is: ""2029: Further progress has been made in understanding the secrets of the human brain. Hundreds of distinct sub-regions with specialized functions have been identified. Some of the algorithms that code for development of these regions have been deciphered and incorporated into neural net computers.""","AI,neuroscience,neural-nets","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will I make more than 3 videos next year?",70,,"Ethan Perez","Amanda N","","","amanda-personal","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T18:50:04.375Z","2020-11-17T18:02:38.326Z","2022-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Will I make more than 3 videos next year?",75,,"Ethan Perez","Amanda N","","","amanda-personal","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T18:49:54.630Z","2020-11-17T18:02:38.326Z","2022-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"2099: Most conscious beings lack a permanent physical form",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI,consciousness","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2099-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2099: Clear distinctions between humans and machines no longer exist",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2099-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2099: Humans and machines merge in the physical and mental realms. Cybernetic brain implants enable humans to fuse their minds with AIs",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2099-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2029: Most communication occurs between humans and machines as opposed to human-to-human",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2049: The distinction between virtual reality and ""real"" reality becomes confounded as foglets come into common use, allowing immediate assembly or disassembly of all sorts of physical objects.",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ","Context on foglets: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utility_fog","AI,virtual-reality","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2049-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2029: Direct brain implants allow users to enter full-immersion virtual reality—with complete sensory stimulation—without any external equipment",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ","The full text of Kurzweil's prediction, according to Wikipedia, is: ""2029: Direct brain implants allow users to enter full-immersion virtual reality—with complete sensory stimulation—without any external equipment. People can have their minds in a totally different place at any moment. This technology is in widespread use.""","AI,BCI,virtual-reality","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2029: Computer implants designed for direct connection to the brain are available",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ","The full text of Kurzweil's prediction, according to Wikipedia, is: ""2029: Computer implants designed for direct connection to the brain are also available. They are capable of augmenting natural senses and of enhancing higher brain functions like memory, learning speed and overall intelligence. (The Age of Spiritual Machines""","AI,BCI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2099: AIs communicate via a shared electronic language",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2099-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2099: AIs are capable of dividing their attention and energies in countless directions, allowing one being to manage a multitude of endeavors simultaneously",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2099-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2099: Natural human thinking possesses no advantages over computer minds",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2099-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2029: Non-biological intelligence will continue to grow exponentially whereas biological intelligence is effectively fixed in its rate of growth.",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2029: Computers are now capable of learning and creating new knowledge entirely on their own and with no human help.",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ","The full text of Kurzweil's prediction, according to Wikipedia, is: ""2029: Computers are now capable of learning and creating new knowledge entirely on their own and with no human help. By scanning the enormous content of the Internet, some computers ""know"" literally every single piece of public information (every scientific discovery, every book and movie, every public statement, etc.) generated by human beings.""","AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2029: Massively parallel neural nets, which are constructed through reverse-engineering the human brain, are in common use.",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI,neuroscience,neural-nets","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2029: The vast majority of computation is done by computers and not by human brains.",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI,compute","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Post 2045: The only possible way to increase the intelligence of the machines any farther is to begin converting all of the matter and energy in the universe into similar massive computers",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ","The full text of Kurzweil's prediction, according to Wikipedia, is: ""Post 2045: At this point, the only possible way to increase the intelligence of the machines any farther is to begin converting all of the matter and energy in the universe into similar massive computers. A.I.s radiate outward from Earth, first into the Solar System and then out into interstellar space, then galaxies in all directions, utilizing starships that are Von Neumann probes with nanobot crews, breaking down whole planets, stars, moons, and meteoroids and reassembling them into computers. This, in effect, ""wakes up"" the universe as all the inanimate ""dumb"" matter (rocks, dust, gases, etc.) is converted into structured matter capable of supporting life (albeit synthetic life).""","AI,hardware,compute","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Post 2045: The physical bottom limit to how small computer transistors can be shrunk is reached",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ","The full text of Kurzweil's prediction, according to Wikipedia, is: ""Post 2045: The physical bottom limit to how small computer transistors (or other equivalent, albeit more effective components, such as memristors integrated into Crossbar latches) can be shrunk is reached. From this moment onwards, computers can only be made more powerful if they are made larger in size.""","AI,hardware,compute","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2045: The Singularity is an extremely disruptive, world-altering event that forever changes the course of human history.",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ","The full text of Kurzweil's prediction, according to Wikipedia, is: ""2045: The Singularity is an extremely disruptive, world-altering event that forever changes the course of human history. The extermination of humanity by violent machines is unlikely (though not impossible) because sharp distinctions between man and machine will no longer exist thanks to the existence of cybernetically enhanced humans and uploaded humans.""","AI,singularity","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2045-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2045: The technological singularity occurs as artificial intelligences surpass human beings as the smartest and most capable life forms on the Earth",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ","The full text of Kurzweil's prediction, according to Wikipedia, is: ""2045: The technological singularity occurs as artificial intelligences surpass human beings as the smartest and most capable life forms on the Earth. Technological development is taken over by the machines, who can think, act and communicate so quickly that normal humans cannot even comprehend what is going on. The machines enter into a ""runaway reaction"" of self-improvement cycles, with each new generation of A.I.s appearing faster and faster. From this point onwards, technological advancement is explosive, under the control of the machines, and thus cannot be accurately predicted (hence the term ""Singularity"").""","AI,singularity","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2045-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2040s: Foglets are in use",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ","Context on foglets: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utility_fog","AI,nanotech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2050-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2030s: Nanotechnology should allow people to alter the neural connections within their brains, changing the underlying basis for the person's intelligence, memories and personality",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI,nanotech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2040-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2030s: Nanomachines in peoples' brains will allow them to greatly expand their cognitive, memory and sensory capabilities, to directly interface with computers, and to ""telepathically"" communicate with other, similarly augmented humans via wireless networks",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI,nanotech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2040-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2020s: The threat posed by genetically engineered pathogens permanently dissipates by the end of this decade as medical nanobots—infinitely more durable, intelligent and capable than any microorganism—become sufficiently advanced",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI,nanotech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2020s: Nanobots capable of entering the bloodstream to ""feed"" cells and extract waste will exist (though not necessarily be in wide use) by the end of this decade",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ","The full text of Kurzweil's prediction, according to Wikipedia, is: ""2020s: Nanobots capable of entering the bloodstream to ""feed"" cells and extract waste will exist (though not necessarily be in wide use) by the end of this decade. They will make the normal mode of human food consumption obsolete.""","AI,nanotech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2020s: By the late 2020s, nanotech-based manufacturing will be in widespread use, radically altering the economy as all sorts of products can suddenly be produced for a fraction of their traditional-manufacture costs",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ","The full text of Kurzweil's prediction, according to Wikipedia, is: ""By the late 2020s, nanotech-based manufacturing will be in widespread use, radically altering the economy as all sorts of products can suddenly be produced for a fraction of their traditional-manufacture costs. The true cost of any product is now the amount it takes to download the design schematics.""","AI,nanotech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2020s: As one of their first practical applications, nanomachines are used for medical purposes.",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI,nanotech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2040s: Nonbiological intelligence will be billions of times more capable than biological intelligence.",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI,intelligence","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2050-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2030s: Human Body 3.0 that lacks a fixed corporeal form and can alter its shape via foglet-like technology is implemented ",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ","The full text of Kurzweil's prediction, according to Wikipedia, is: ""2030s: The many variations of ""Human Body 3.0"" are gradually implemented during this and the following decade; It most likely lacks a fixed, corporeal form and can alter its shape and external appearance at will via foglet-like nanotechnology.""","AI,biology","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2040-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2030s: Mind uploading becomes successful and perfected by the end of this decade as humans become software-based",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ","The full text of Kurzweil's prediction, according to Wikipedia, is: ""2030s: Mind uploading becomes successful and perfected by the end of this decade as humans become software-based: living out on the Web, projecting bodies whenever they want or need (whether in virtual or real reality), and living indefinitely so long as they maintain their ""mind file"". Eventually, all human beings (including those with transbiological 2.0 or 3.0 bodies) will migrate to this postbiological state except for those who wish to remain unenhanced: the transbiological era giving way to the postbiological era.","AI,neuroscience,biology","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2040-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Will I read more than 12 books next year?",75,,"Ethan Perez","Amanda N","","","amanda-personal","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T18:49:38.276Z","2020-11-17T18:02:21.606Z","2022-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"2029: A $1,000 personal computer is 1,000 times more powerful than the human brain by 2029",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI,compute","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","1999-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Post 2045: AI's convert more and more of the Earth's matter into engineered, computational substrate capable of supporting more A.I.s. until the whole Earth is one, gigantic computer",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ","The full text of Kurzweil's prediction, according to Wikipedia, is: ""Post 2045: Because of [reaching the physical bottom limit on how small computer transistors can be], AI's convert more and more of the Earth's matter into engineered, computational substrate capable of supporting more A.I.s. until the whole Earth is one, gigantic computer, except for a few nature reserves set aside on the planetary surface for those humans who decided to remain in their natural state. ""MOSH's"" (Mostly Original Substrate Human) who choose to remain purely organic would still possess virtual assistants that will act as their transcendent servants, living in the blurred real world (""foglet-reality"") and being provided with environments and everything they could possibly need as they live out the rest of their normal lives unless they enhance themselves.""","AI,hardware,compute","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2030s: Using brain nanobots, recorded or real-time brain transmissions of a person's daily life known as ""experience beamers"" will be available for other people to remotely experience",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ","The full text of Kurzweil's prediction, according to Wikipedia, is: ""2030s: Using brain nanobots, recorded or real-time brain transmissions of a person's daily life known as ""experience beamers"" will be available for other people to remotely experience. This is very similar to how the characters in Being John Malkovich were able to enter the mind of Malkovich and see the world through his eyes.""","AI,nanotech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2040-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2030s: Brain nanobots could also elicit emotional responses from users",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI,nanotech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2040-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2030s: VR without the need for external equipment could be generated from nanomachines that are directly inserted into the brain to control incoming and outgoing signals",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ","The full text of Kurzweil's prediction, according to Wikipedia, is: ""2030s: Nanomachines could be directly inserted into the brain and could interact with brain cells to totally control incoming and outgoing signals. As a result, truly full-immersion virtual reality could be generated without the need for any external equipment. Afferent nerve pathways could be blocked, totally cancelling out the ""real"" world and leaving the user with only the desired virtual experience.""","AI,nanotech,virtual-reality","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2040-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2025: Some military UAVs and land vehicles will be 100% computer-controlled",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI,military","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2025: This is the most likely year for the debut of advanced nanotechnology",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI,nanotech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2020s: Accurate computer simulations of the entire human brain will exist due to hyper accurate brain scans from nanobots, and the workings of the brain will be understood",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI,nanotech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2020s: Highly advanced medical nanobots will perform detailed brainscans on live patients",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI,nanotech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2040s: People spend most of their time in full-immersion virtual reality",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI,virtual-reality","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2050-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2020s: By the later part of this decade, virtual reality will be so high-quality that it will be indistinguishable from real reality.",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI,virtual-reality","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2045: $1000 buys a computer a billion times more intelligent than every human combined. This means that average and even low-end computers are vastly smarter than even highly intelligent, unenhanced humans",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI,hardware,compute","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2045-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2023: 10^16 calculations per second—roughly the equivalent of one human brain—will cost $1,000",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI,hardware,compute","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2023-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"2020s: Computers less than 100 nm in size will be possible",100,,"Ray Kurzweil","Ray Kurzweil","Kurzweil did not include a probability alongside his claim, so we assumed a 100% probability. ",,"AI,hardware,compute","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2005-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"A world totalitarian government will emerge prior to 3006 and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on ""the number of independent countries on earth [falling to 1] during the next thousand years"".",25,,"Bryan Caplan","Bryan Caplan","Increased from Caplan's 5% unconditional probability",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2006-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2006-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","4006-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Full-scale collapse of society - perhaps due to very, very widespread famine - if there's 5 degrees of warming.",90,,"Mark Lynas","Mark Lynas",,"Note: 2100-01-01 is used as the default date as no resolution date was specified.","climate change,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-20T00:00:00.000Z","2020-08-20T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Full-scale collapse of society - perhaps due to very, very widespread famine - if there's 4 degrees of warming.",60,,"Mark Lynas","Mark Lynas",,"Note: 2100-01-01 is used as the default date as no resolution date was specified.","climate change,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-20T00:00:00.000Z","2020-08-20T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Full-scale collapse of society - perhaps due to very, very widespread famine - if there's 3 degrees of warming.",35,,"Mark Lynas","Mark Lynas","Exact prediction: 30 - 40%","Note: 2100-01-01 is used as the default date as no resolution date was specified.","climate change,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-20T00:00:00.000Z","2020-08-20T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Full-scale collapse of society - perhaps due to very, very widespread famine - if there's 2 degrees of warming.",10,,"Mark Lynas","Mark Lynas","Exact prediction: Maybe 10%","Note: 2100-01-01 is used as the default date as no resolution date was specified.","climate change,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-20T00:00:00.000Z","2020-08-20T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Even without any additional intervention from current longtermists, advanced AI systems will not cause human extinction by adversarially optimizing against humans.",90,,"Rohin Shah","Rohin Shah","Interview extract: ""Before taking into account other researchers’ opinions, Shah guesses an extremely rough~90% chance that even without any additional intervention from current longtermists, advanced AI systems will not cause human extinction by adversarially optimizing against humans."" ","Note: 2100-01-01 is used as the default date as no resolution date was specified.","AI,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-06T00:00:00.000Z","2019-08-06T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Chance that we don't ""manage to survive that transition [to there being something that's more intelligent than humanity], being in charge of our future"".",20,,"Toby Ord","Toby Ord","Predictor Quote: ""Basically, you can look at my [estimate that the existential risk from AI in the next 100 years is] 10% as, there’s about a 50% chance that we create something that’s more intelligent than humanity this century. And then there’s only an 80% chance that we manage to survive that transition, being in charge of our future. If you put that together, you get a 10% chance that’s the time where we lost control of the future in a negative way. [For people who would disagree, a question] is why would they think that we have much higher than an 80% chance of surviving this ‘passing this baton to these other entities’, but still retaining control of our future or making sure that they build a future that is excellent, surpassingly good by our own perspective? I think that the very people who are working on trying to actually make sure that artificial intelligence would be aligned with our values are finding it extremely difficult. They’re not that hopeful about it. So it seems hard to think there’s more than 80% chance, based on what we know, to get through that.""",,"AI,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-07T00:00:00.000Z","2020-03-07T00:00:00.000Z","2120-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Total existential risk by 2120 ""if we just carry on as we are"", with ""business as usual"" (which Ord doesn't expect us to do)",33,,"Toby Ord","Toby Ord","Exact prediction: ""about one in three"". Additional context: Ord: ""one in six is my best guess as to the chance [an existential catastrophe] happens [by 2120]. That’s not a business as usual estimate. Whereas I think often people are assuming that estimates like this are, if we just carry on as we are, what’s the chance that something will happen? My best guess for that is actually about one in three this century. If we carry on mostly ignoring these risks with humanity’s escalating power during the century and some of these threats being very serious. But I think that there’s a good chance that we will rise to these challenges and do something about them. ",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2020-03-01T00:00:00.000Z","2120-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Indonesia will be ranked 8 on the IMF's GDP at current prices ranking of the world's largest economies, as they already are at PPP valuation. The UK and France will be forced down to No 9 and 10.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-10T06:35:44.000Z","2015-08-10T06:35:44.000Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"beeminder.com will operate through 2025-09-01",60,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-26T20:29:40.000Z","2015-08-26T20:29:40.000Z","2025-09-01T17:00:00.000Z"
"A world totalitarian government will emerge prior to 3006 and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on ""the number of independent countries on earth [not decreasing] during the next thousand years"".",0.1,,"Bryan Caplan","Bryan Caplan","Reduced from Caplan's 5% unconditional probability",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2006-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2006-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","4006-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"A world totalitarian government will emerge prior to 3006 and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on ""genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate"" and ""extensive government regulation"".",10,,"Bryan Caplan","Bryan Caplan","Increased from Caplan's 5% unconditional probability",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2006-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2006-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","4006-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"A world totalitarian government will emerge prior to 3006 and last for a thousand years or more, conditional on ""genetic screening for personality traits becom[ing] cheap and accurate, but the principle of reproductive freedom prevail[ing]"".",3,,"Bryan Caplan","Bryan Caplan","Reduced from Caplan's 5% unconditional probability",,"x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2006-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2006-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","4006-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Full-scale collapse of society - perhaps due to very, very widespread famine - if there's 6 degrees of warming.",97,,"Mark Lynas","Mark Lynas",,"Note: 2100-01-01 is used as the default date as no resolution date was specified.","climate change,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-08-20T00:00:00.000Z","2020-08-20T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"AGI by 2039.",50,,"Rohin Shah","Rohin Shah","Interview extract: ""Shah very uncertainly guesses that there’s a ~50% that we will get AGI within two decades""",,"AI,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-08-06T00:00:00.000Z","2019-08-06T00:00:00.000Z","2039-08-06T00:00:00.000Z"
"There to be more orcas in 2030 than 2010",10,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T11:19:01.000Z","2015-07-13T11:19:01.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There to be more kakapo in 2030 than 2010",70,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T11:19:18.000Z","2015-07-13T11:19:18.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2042,  proven that at least 9/10ths of the non-trivial zeros of the Riemann zeta function lie on the real line (proportionally).",65,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-27T01:04:50.000Z","2015-08-27T01:04:50.000Z","2042-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2034, at least 5 superconducting lines to be active parts of one of the major American electric grids. ",65,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-27T01:26:19.000Z","2015-08-27T01:26:19.000Z","2034-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2034, at least 5 superconducting lines to be active parts of one of the major American electric grids. ",75,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-12T20:35:45.000Z","2015-08-27T01:26:19.000Z","2034-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2034, at least 5 superconducting lines to be active parts of one of the major American electric grids. ",72,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ","Reducing confidence based on issues with Tres Amguas http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/tres-amigas-loses-key-interconnect-for-grid-connecting-project ",,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-18T17:46:49.000Z","2015-08-27T01:26:19.000Z","2034-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat to be a $3.5 trillion economy by 2020: Sonal Varma, Nomura",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-02T12:33:52.000Z","2015-12-02T12:33:52.000Z","2020-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"International Air Transport Association's (IATA) updated passenger growth forecast, predicts Bharat will displace Britain as the third-largest market by 2026.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-02T12:27:47.000Z","2015-12-02T12:27:47.000Z","2026-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat's middle class will reach 475 million by 2030.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-02T12:16:44.000Z","2015-12-02T12:16:44.000Z","2030-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat's middle class will reach 200 million by 2020.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-02T12:14:43.000Z","2015-12-02T12:14:43.000Z","2020-12-30T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be more Scarlet Macaws in 2030 than 2010",20,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T11:20:11.000Z","2015-07-13T11:20:11.000Z","2031-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a House Mouse that lives up to 6 years by 2025",45,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T11:32:27.000Z","2015-07-13T11:32:27.000Z","2026-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"The largest not-currently-existing US tech company (by market cap as of 1/1/30) will not have its primary HQ in the Bay Area.",35,,"orthonormal","orthonormal",,,"LW2020,tech,business","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Real-time 24-hour news networks will still exist as of 1/1/30, and will average more than 1 million average daily viewers (in the USA) in 2029.",50,,"orthonormal","orthonormal",,,"LW2020,society","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"More than half of American adults will use a Facebook product at least once per day in 2029.",60,,"orthonormal","orthonormal",,,"LW2020,tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on Pew Research Center releasing a survey on the topic after 28/1/1, their most recent survey by 30/1/1 will show that 33% or more of American adults identify as religiously unaffiliated.",70,,"orthonormal","orthonormal",,,"LW2020,society","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"As of 30/1/1, customers will not make purchases by giving each merchant full access to a non-transaction-specific numeric string (i.e. credit cards as they are today).",70,,"orthonormal","orthonormal",,,"LW2020,tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact will not go into force by 30/1/1.",75,,"orthonormal","orthonormal",,,"LW2020,US politics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The median rent per unit in the United States will increase faster than inflation in the 2020s.",80,,"orthonormal","orthonormal",,,"LW2020,economics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Fewer than 10 million people (combatants + civilians) will die in wars in the 2020s.",85,,"orthonormal","orthonormal",,,"LW2020,geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Fewer than 1 billion people (combatants + civilians) will die in wars in the 2020s.",95,,"orthonormal","orthonormal",,,"LW2020,geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Construction will start on replacements for the North River Tunnels by 2030",25,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-09-03T18:28:26.000Z","2015-09-03T18:28:26.000Z","2030-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"California will put a new state constitution to a statewide vote by 2030.",10,,"orthonormal","orthonormal",,,"LW2020,US politics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"A song generated entirely by an AI will make one of the Billboard charts by 2030.",25,,"orthonormal","orthonormal",,,"LW2020,AI,society","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on Pew Research Center releasing a survey on the topic after 28/1/1, their most recent survey by 30/1/1 will show that 60% or fewer of American adults identify as Christian.",70,,"orthonormal","orthonormal",,,"LW2020,society","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Human-driven cars will still be street-legal in all major US cities as of 30/1/1.",75,,"orthonormal","orthonormal",,,"LW2020,US politics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The United States of America will still exist under its current Constitution (with or without new Amendments) and with all of its current states (with or without new states) as of 30/1/1.",93,,"orthonormal","orthonormal",,,"LW2020,US politics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"At least 1 more genetically modified human will be born by 2030. ",100,,"Teerth Aloke","Teerth Aloke",,,"LW2020,science","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Chuck Yeager to become a centenarian",15,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T11:33:28.000Z","2015-07-13T11:33:28.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Lee Teng-Hui to become a centenarian",15,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T11:34:22.000Z","2015-07-13T11:34:22.000Z","2024-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Mealsquares will be more popular than soylent (by number of customers) by 2020",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-13T12:02:44.000Z","2015-07-13T12:02:44.000Z","2021-01-16T23:00:00.000Z"
"Will I travel to more than 3 countries next year?",36,,"Ethan Perez","Amanda N","","","amanda-personal","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T18:49:23.666Z","2020-11-17T18:03:56.411Z","2022-01-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"Average predicted year of arrival of AGI will be revised by +10 years at-least by 2030.",40,,"Teerth Aloke","Teerth Aloke",,,"LW2020,AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, a new civil war or high-level insurgency will break out in Syria.",50,,"Teerth Aloke","Teerth Aloke",,,"LW2020,geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, India will cease to be a secular state, and communal violence will become more common.",50,,"Teerth Aloke","Teerth Aloke",,,"LW2020,geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, capital investments in Europe will grow at a faster pace than in the US. In 2019 it seems to be in a 1:4 ratio ($34 billion vs $136 billion ), which will have changed to at least 1:3 (70%). ",70,,"digital_carver","digital_carver",,"Author note: something similar probably holds in Asia too, but I'm too lazy to look up the numbers, divide up China vs rest of Asia, etc.","LW2020,economics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-24T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-24T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, meditation (or, with a small likelihood, some form of it in a different name) will become even more common and widely known. Not (yet) as widely practised as bathing every day, but as widely recommended as flossing is by dentists.",85,,"digital_carver","digital_carver",,,"LW2020,society","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-24T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-24T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"We move away from an intrusive advertising based payment approach for many online services/tools, allowing increased protection of privacy and people in general. Advertising might still be better targeted but the repositories of the data change (perhaps become privately/individually held). Perhaps moving from a push type delivery model to that of pull.",15,,"jmh","jmh",,,"LW2020,society","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on x (see notes), greater autarky at smaller levels reducing some of the scarcity driven conflict in the world. ",10,,"jmh","jmh","Predictor note: assuming cheap energy is realized and not stifled/withheld.","x = ""Cheap energy is developed. A transition plan - for replacing all the existing social and economic structures built around expensive energy - is implemented, leading to a rethink about property rights in many items and how we produce and exchange -- and work.""","LW2020,economics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I will get into one of Harvard, MIT, or Princeton",15,,"RoryS","RoryS",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-14T20:36:41.000Z","2015-07-14T20:36:41.000Z","2016-07-14T11:00:00.000Z"
"Will I be in New Mexico for Thanksgiving?",90,,"Ethan Perez","Amanda N","","I am currently in New Mexico.","amanda-personal","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-17T18:48:29.385Z","2020-11-17T18:04:29.703Z","2020-12-01T07:00:00.000Z"
"There will be 3000+ active nuclear warheads by 2030.",90,,"Teerth Aloke","Teerth Aloke",,,"LW2020,geopolitics,nuclear","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, Israel will not have vacated West Bank.",80,,"Teerth Aloke","Teerth Aloke",,,"LW2020,geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, the USA will have less than 1000 troops in Afghanistan.",80,,"Teerth Aloke","Teerth Aloke",,,"LW2020,geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"No human being will be living on another celestial object (Moon, another planet or asteroid) by 2030.",80,,"Teerth Aloke","Teerth Aloke",,,"LW2020,space","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Russia's GDP will be less than 2 trillion dollars by 2030.",60,,"Teerth Aloke","Teerth Aloke",,,"LW2020,economics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, India's GDP would rise up to 5 trillion dollars.",70,,"Teerth Aloke","Teerth Aloke",,,"LW2020,economics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The human population will be more than 8 billion, and the population of India will reach 1.5 billion by 2030.",90,,"Teerth Aloke","Teerth Aloke",,,"LW2020,global metrics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, vegetarianism will be more popular. Currently 8% of world population is estimated to be vegetarian (as of 2018), this would increase to at least 20% (artificial meat products, if any, count as vegetarian for this measure).",75,,"digital_carver","digital_carver",,,"LW2020,animal welfare","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-24T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-24T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Cheap energy is developed. A transition plan - for replacing all the existing social and economic structures built around expensive energy - is implemented, leading to a rethink about property rights in many items and how we produce and exchange -- and work. ",5,,"jmh","jmh",,,"LW2020,science,economics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, the scientific community finally acknowledges we know very little about how the universe works and that we're better described as being infants in a crib trying to make sense of the room we're in and barely able to see the larger world outside that room.",1,,"jmh","jmh","Predictor note: which is not to say we cannot do lots of very useful things with the limited and incomplete knowledge we have.",,"LW2020,science","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Aliens decide the galaxy has a better use for the space our solar system occupies and build a super highway though it, destroying all human civilization by 2030.",1,,"jmh","jmh",,,"LW2020,space","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Limited nuclear weapons (tactical) use becomes normal by 2030.",10,,"jmh","jmh",,,"LW2020,geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, first interstellar ship launch to conduct research designed specifically for extra-solar system research (Voyager doesn't count).",80,,"jmh","jmh",,,"LW2020,space","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Space economy (think resource mining and manufacturing) at or above break even by 2030.",70,,"jmh","jmh",,,"LW2020,space","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Humans living on the moon by 2030.",90,,"jmh","jmh",,,"LW2020,space","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"EU fully integrates into a federation of member states under a common federal government by 2030.",35,,"jmh","jmh",,,"LW2020,geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"EU falls completely apart as a political union by 2030 (but remains a close, largely open and free trade union).",40,,"jmh","jmh",,,"LW2020,geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030 & conditional on x (see notes), China must recognize Taiwan's independence (coupled with Taiwan halting any support for revolts in southern mainland China).",25,,"jmh","jmh",,"x = ""By 2030; hot, but limited war between China and USA resulting in an internal Civil War in mainland China driven by Muslim revolt in north-western China, Taiwan & Hong Kong and economic interests in southern China."" See source for full context.","LW2020,geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030 & conditional on x (see notes), China then must concede on its 9-dash line claim.",50,,"jmh","jmh",,"x = ""By 2030; hot, but limited war between China and USA resulting in an internal Civil War in mainland China driven by Muslim revolt in north-western China, Taiwan & Hong Kong and economic interests in southern China."" See source for full context.","LW2020,geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"South Korea and Philippines change alliance from USA to China and support its 9 dash line claims & Taiwan war with mainland China by 2030.",35,,"jmh","jmh",,,"LW2020,geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, a military strike on North Korea or Iran to clearly deter or eliminate their nuclear proliferation.",60,,"jmh","jmh",,,"LW2020,geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"If North Korea is recognized as a nuclear state by 2030 and this results in the effective abandonment of the current non-proliferation agreements; this will be followed by the complete abandonment of all arms limitation agreements and the development of even more destructive weapons (to counter the growing nuclear threats). ",80,,"jmh","jmh",,"Author note: this is already occurring","LW2020,geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"North Korea recognized as a nuclear state by 2030.",25,,"jmh","jmh","Exact prediction: 20 - 30%",,"LW2020,geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"A second global financial crisis of larger scale than the 2007-2009 period by 2030.",50,,"jmh","jmh",,,"LW2020,economics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, the global multilateral political and economic institutions fail and relationships return to more bilateral and regional based systems largely replaces it. Not that something like the UN disappears, only that it merely serves as a location for discussion but is not seen (which it clearly isn’t even now) as any type of global government with any authority over the member states.",70,,"jmh","jmh",,,"LW2020,geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Using a reasonable calibration method*, the LW2020 predictions will receive a better score than the set of those in the previous thread from 10 years ago.",80,,"Rafael Harth","Rafael Harth",,"*Author note: ""I don't know the math for this, but I'm assuming there is one that inputs a set of predictions and their truth values and outputs some number, such that the number measures calibration and doesn't predictably increase or decrease with more predictions.""","LW2020,meta","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, AI Safety will be a respected academic discipline & MIRI-style research will be a decided minority within this discipline.",80,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Working anti-aging intervention for humans by 2030.",10,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,science","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2100, world economic growth rates will have increased by over a factor of a hundred.",85,,"Daniel Kokotajlo","Robin Hanson","",,"wild-ideas","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-11-18T08:58:01.663Z","2001-01-01T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Trump will still be President on 2019-01-01.",17,"YES","Gwern","Gwern",,,"US politics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-03-30T00:00:00.000Z","2017-03-30T00:00:00.000Z","2019-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Any use of US nukes in first 6 months of Trump presidency.",3,"NO","Gwern","Gwern","Exact prediction: ""<3%""",,"nuclear","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2017-01-20T00:00:00.000Z","2017-01-20T00:00:00.000Z","2017-07-20T00:00:00.000Z"
"The first broad human-level AI to be an upload/brain emulation.",10,,"Gwern","Gwern","Exact prediction: ""<10%""",,"AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-10-06T00:00:00.000Z","2016-10-06T00:00:00.000Z","2100-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"BlackMarket Reloaded to shut down by 2014/10/30.",50,"YES","Gwern","Gwern",,,"tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2013-10-30T00:00:00.000Z","2013-10-30T00:00:00.000Z","2014-10-30T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, some country severs political ties with communist China due to both its political subterfuge and its economic threats/response and the actions of its citizens residing in other countries (such as Canada or Australia) who insist on imposing the Chinese view of things on local populations -- primarily violent reactions by Chinese nationals to legal free speech and criticism of CCP policies. ",50,,"jmh","jmh","Predictor note: may result in a domino effect.",,"LW2020,geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, new/stronger economic & political relationships formed by US with Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Japan, South Korea resulting in significant isolation of China from trade and production relationships with rest of the world.",35,,"jmh","jmh","Predictor note: end result here is much stronger ASEAN member economies and them becoming the gate keepers as it were to economic relations with the mainland China economy.",,"LW2020,geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on x (see notes) & China resultantly needing to recognize Taiwan’s independence; independence is recognized in order to sign a peace agreement with the US by 2030.",25,,"jmh","jmh",,"x = ""By 2030; hot, but limited war between China and USA resulting in an internal Civil War in mainland China driven by Muslim revolt in north-western China, Taiwan & Hong Kong and economic interests in southern China."" See source for full context.","LW2020,geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030; hot, but limited war between China and USA resulting in an internal Civil War in mainland China driven by Muslim revolt in north-western China, Taiwan & Hong Kong and economic interests in southern China.",40,,"jmh","jmh",,,"LW2020,geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"First global war of the 21st Century by 2030. ",40,,"jmh","jmh","Predictor note: possibly sparked by previous prediction (a military strike on North Korea or Iran to clearly deter or eliminate their nuclear proliferation).",,"LW2020,geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"If North Korea is recognized as a nuclear state by 2030; this will result in the effective abandonment of the current non-proliferation agreements.",20,,"jmh","jmh",,,"LW2020,geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Lowering each confidence stated (for the LW2020 predictions) by a relative 10% (i.e. 70% to 63%) will yield better total calibration*.",60,,"Rafael Harth","Rafael Harth",,"*Author note: ""I don't know the math for this, but I'm assuming there is one that inputs a set of predictions and their truth values and outputs some number, such that the number measures calibration and doesn't predictably increase or decrease with more predictions.""","LW2020,meta","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Effective Altruism mainstreamed significantly by 2030.",85,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,EA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"MIRI will not continue their nondisclosure policy in the present form by 2030.",70,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, AI Safety will be a respected academic discipline.",90,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"VR entertainment will be a decided minority in terms of time spent playing by 2030.",70,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"VR entertainment will be the majority of the game market in terms of revenue by 2030.",70,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"A working anti-aging intervention for humans is on the market by 2030.",5,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,science","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Greater than 80% of cars on the road in US will be electric by 2030.",80,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Satoshi Nakomoto (briefly) becomes the richest person in history by 2030.",30,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"An AI will compose a hit song without significant assistance by 2030.",80,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Tesla will be the largest automotive company by market cap at least once by 2030.",70,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,economics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, SpaceX will become wildly successful and highly valuable with Starlink technology.",60,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,space","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX lands a human on Mars by 2030.",60,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,space","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, SpaceX sends Yusaku Maezawa around the moon & it goes wrong.",10,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,space","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, SpaceX sends Yusaku Maezawa around the moon.",55,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,space","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Crazy person kills AI researcher because of vaguely AI risk type concerns by 2030.",80,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Discovery cure for Dandruff which works by defeating some sort of germ/biological agent by 2030.",80,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,science","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Discovery cure for Male Pattern baldness which works by defeating some sort of germ/biological agent by 2030.",80,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,science","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Discovery cure for large fraction of obesity which works by defeating some sort of germ/biological agent by 2030.",20,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,science","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"A cure is discovered and available on the market for Male Pattern baldness by 2030.",30,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,science","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"A cure is discovered and available on the market for large fraction of obesity by 2030.",30,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,science","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Discovery cure for Male Pattern baldness by 2030.",20,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,science","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Discovery cure for large fraction of obesity by 2030.",10,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,science","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Babies born with explicitly IQ edits by 2030.",60,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,science","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"More babies born with edits for non-medical reasons by 2030.",70,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,science","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"More babies born with edits for medical reasons by 2030.",85,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,science","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Trump does not win reelection.",70,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,2020 Election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"No economic recession comparable with the 2008 Great Recession by 2030.",85,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,economics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, immigration streams to the West from 3rd World countries, particularly Africa, will increase.",70,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, population of subsaharan Africa will continue to boom. Fertility will fall modestly.",70,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Continuing secularisation in the West by 2030.",85,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,society","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Continuing secularisation in the Middle-East by 2030.",75,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,society","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Nuclear strike anywhere in the world by 2030.",5,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,geopolitics,nuclear","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, India will commit what will later be regarded by a significant fraction of Western observers as genocide in Kashmir.",10,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent","Predictor note: (low confidence)",,"LW2020,geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"There will be a missile/drone strike on an aircraft carrier, crippling the ship by 2030.",4,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, if Taiwan is put under siege by China militarily, the US will back down. ",90,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Taiwan put under siege by China militarily by 2030.",50,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Taiwan put under siege by China economically by 2030.",80,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"There will be at least one US-based prediction market larger than PredictIt is now, in daily traffic by 2030.",50,,"Ozzie Gooen","Ozzie Gooen","Exact prediction: ~50%",,"LW2020,US politics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-02T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The Economist will be more optimistic in 2030 than it is in Jan 1, 2020.",90,,"Ozzie Gooen","Ozzie Gooen","Exact prediction: ~90%. Additional note: Due mostly from reversion to the mean. Things seem particularly bad right now.",,"LW2020,geopolitics,economics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-02T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"There will be at least 1000 points on Hacker News with ""Knowledge Graph"" or synonyms in the title by 2030.",60,,"Ozzie Gooen","Ozzie Gooen","Exact prediction: ~60%",,"LW2020","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-02T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The market for Certificates of Impact will be smaller than $100K/year in 2030.",90,,"Ozzie Gooen","Ozzie Gooen","Exact prediction: ~90%",,"LW2020","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-02T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Working anti-aging intervention for mice by 2030.",20,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,science","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"No Superintelligence by 2030.",95,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent","Predictor note: Mostly a prior on complexity, reaction against hype etc.",,"LW2020,AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"SpaceX lands unmanned probe on mars by 2030.",85,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,space","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Top ranked Starcraft Broodwar player trounced by AI by 2030.",85,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Mini-drone/drone bombs will be used in major terrorist attack killing many civilians by 2030.",85,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,"Author note: by mini-drone I mean a small drone that one would buy in the store, not the unmanned aerial vehicles and its siblings that the US military employs.","LW2020,geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Mini-drone attack will kill a major political figure by 2030.",85,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,"Author note: by mini-drone I mean a small drone that one would buy in the store, not the unmanned aerial vehicles and its siblings that the US military employs.","LW2020,geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Discovery cure for large fraction of heart disease which works by defeating some sort of germ/biological agent by 2030.",30,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,science","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"A cure is discovered and available on the market for Dandruff by 2030.",30,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,science","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"A cure is discovered and available on the market for large fraction of heart disease by 2030.",30,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,science","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Discovery cure for Dandruff by 2030.",20,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,science","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Discovery cure for large fraction of heart disease by 2030.",10,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,science","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"CRISPR or CRISPR like techniques cure >5 genetic disease by 2030.",70,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,science","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Conditional on Biden winning the primary & no crazy things (i.e. somebody dying) Biden wins the presidential election.",85,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,2020 Election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, party drugs (MDMA etc) will become much more widespread worldwide.",70,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,society","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, smoking/drinking will continue to fall worldwide.",70,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,society","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Subsaharan Africa continues making little gdp /capita gains by 2030.",70,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Economic slowdown in the West (GDP/capita growth for 2020-2030 lower than 2010-2020).",70,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent","Predictor note: a plausible story is an aging population",,"LW2020,economics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, if Taiwan is put under siege by China militarily and the US does not back down, this will lead to a nuclear exchange between the US and China.",10,,"Self-Embedded Agent","Self-Embedded Agent",,,"LW2020,geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-14T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Judgemental prediction applications will be considered ""moderately useful"" for EA purposes by 2030.",40,,"Ozzie Gooen","Ozzie Gooen","Exact prediction: ~40%",,"LW2020,EA","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-02T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"No [AGI+Superintelligence] by 2030.",98,,"Ozzie Gooen","Ozzie Gooen","Exact prediction: ~98%",,"LW2020,AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-01-02T00:00:00.000Z","2020-01-02T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Emperor Emeritus Akihito will still be alive on 2030/1/1.",30,,"Vaniver","Vaniver","Predictor note: ""This requires him to make it to 96; while life expectancy for a 86-year old Japanese man is 6.3 years, he's already abdicated due to poor health.""",,"LW2020,world events","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The 'higher education bubble' will burst by 2030.",70,,"Vaniver","Vaniver","Predictor note: this feels mostly like a ""you'll know it when you see it"" thing, but clear evidence would be a substantial decrease in the fraction of Americans going to college, or a significant decline in the wage premium for ""any college diploma"" over a high school diploma (while perhaps some diplomas will retain significant wage premiums).",,"LW2020,society,economics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"The UK will leave the European Union by 2030.",95,,"Vaniver","Vaniver",,,"LW2020,UK politics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"No proof that P = NP by 2030.",98,,"Matthew Barnett","Matthew Barnett",,,"LW2020,science","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Roe v Wade will not be overturned by 2030.",70,,"Matthew Barnett","Matthew Barnett",,,"LW2020","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Donald Trump will win re-election.",55,,"Matthew Barnett","Matthew Barnett",,,"LW2020,2020 election","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2020-11-03T00:00:00.000Z"
"No war larger than the Syrian Civil War by death count, according to a reputable organization, will have occurred by 2030.",65,,"Matthew Barnett","Matthew Barnett",,,"LW2020,geopolitics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"No one will have won a Nobel Prize in Physics for their work on string theory by 2030.",80,,"Matthew Barnett","Matthew Barnett",,,"LW2020,science","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, world GDP will be higher than it was in 2019.",97,,"Matthew Barnett","Matthew Barnett",,,"LW2020,economics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"There will be another economic recession in the United States by 2030.",70,,"Matthew Barnett","Matthew Barnett",,,"LW2020,economics","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"If a survey is performed (prior to 2030), most people in the United States will say that curing aging is undesirable.",85,,"Matthew Barnett","Matthew Barnett",,,"LW2020,society","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"No computer - or machine intelligence - will pass the Turing Test by 2029.",55,,"Matthew Barnett","Matthew Barnett",,"Edited for clarity, original phrasing: ""Kurzweil will lose his bet on Longbets (http://longbets.org/1/)""","LW2020,AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2029-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, experts will recognize that top computers can reliably beat humans at narrow language benchmarks, such as those on https://super.gluebenchmark.com/.",90,,"Matthew Barnett","Matthew Barnett",,,"LW2020,AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, robin Hanson will disagree with the statement, ""The rate of automation increased substantially during the 2020s, compared to prior decades"".",85,,"Matthew Barnett","Matthew Barnett",,,"LW2020,AI,tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, at least one company sells nearly fully autonomous cars, defined as cars that can autonomously perform nearly all tasks that normal drivers accomplish.",80,,"Matthew Barnett","Matthew Barnett",,,"LW2020,tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"No human will have stepped foot on Mars by 2030.",50,,"Matthew Barnett","Matthew Barnett",,,"LW2020,space","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"No US President will utter the words ""Existential risk"" in public during their term as president by 2030.",65,,"Matthew Barnett","Matthew Barnett",,,"LW2020,x risk","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Bryan Caplan will lose a bet by 2030.",75,,"Matthew Barnett","Matthew Barnett",,,"LW2020","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"Tradititional religion will continue to decline in the West (from 2020-2030), as measured by surveys that track engagement.",85,,"Matthew Barnett","Matthew Barnett",,,"LW2020,society","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"No language model will write a book without substantial aid, that ends up on the New York Times bestseller list by 2030.",97,,"Matthew Barnett","Matthew Barnett",,,"LW2020,AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, no robot hand will be able to manipulate a Rubik's cube as well as a top human.",80,,"Matthew Barnett","Matthew Barnett",,,"LW2020,tech","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030, no high-level AGI, defined as a single system that can perform nearly every economically valuable task more cheaply than a human, will have been created.",94,,"Matthew Barnett","Matthew Barnett",,,"LW2020,AI","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2019-12-31T00:00:00.000Z","2030-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"vox to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-15T21:00:26.000Z","2015-07-15T21:00:26.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"io9 to be more popular in 2020 than 2015",50,,"InquilineKea","InquilineKea",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-07-15T21:00:51.000Z","2015-07-15T21:00:51.000Z","2021-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Bharat's life expectancy at birth will improve over the next decades, from 71.7 years in 2025-2030 to 75.9 years in 2045-2050 and 84.6 years in 2095-2100. 
",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-30T05:54:49.000Z","2015-11-30T05:54:49.000Z","2025-12-01T07:25:00.000Z"
"RBI estimates Bharat's current account deficit at 1.5% in FY16.",95,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-06T04:25:27.000Z","2015-12-06T04:25:27.000Z","2016-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"ExxonMobil has predicted that global demand for coal will peak in about 2025",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-04T06:33:36.000Z","2016-02-04T06:33:36.000Z","2025-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"Zhongguo's output of greenhouse gases will peak in 2025, 5 years ahead of the pledged 2030 date.
",96,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2016-02-04T06:18:12.000Z","2016-02-04T06:18:12.000Z","2025-12-25T12:00:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2045, a superconductor with a critical temperature of at least 240 K will be discovered. ",65,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-21T12:19:56.000Z","2015-08-21T12:19:56.000Z","2045-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"Brasil will be ranked 7 on the IMF's GDP at current prices ranking of the world's largest economies, as they already are at PPP valuation. The UK and France will be forced down to No 9 and 10.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-10T06:34:51.000Z","2015-08-10T06:34:51.000Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Rossiya will be ranked 6 on the IMF's GDP at current prices ranking of the world's largest economies, as they already are at PPP valuation. The UK and France will be forced down to No 9 and 10. Relative ranking of UK and France is unspecified.",100,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-10T06:33:56.000Z","2015-08-10T06:33:56.000Z","2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z"
"Will TechCrunch report a startup raising $150M or more on [X Date]?",10,,"Amanda N","Amanda N","","This question is part of the EA Fellowship. It resolves according to the articles on this page at [time] on [X Date]: https://techcrunch.com/startups/","EA-fellowship","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T01:54:19.101Z","2020-12-23T01:52:13.725Z","2100-01-01T06:00:00.000Z"
"Will TechCrunch report a startup raising $150M or more on [X Date]?",12,,"Amanda N","Amanda N","","This question is part of the EA Fellowship. It resolves according to the articles on this page at [time] on [X Date]: https://techcrunch.com/startups/","EA-fellowship","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T01:57:22.028Z","2020-12-23T01:52:13.725Z","2100-01-01T06:00:00.000Z"
"Will the title of the New York Times front page article on [X Date] include any of the words listed?",10,,"Amanda N","Amanda N","","This question is part of the EA Fellowship. To see the featured article: 
1. Go to newyorktimes.com
2. Click ‘Today’s Paper’ (https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper?redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F)
3. The front page article is the one with the biggest image right under ‘The Front Page’","EA-fellowship","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T01:54:20.778Z","2020-12-23T01:52:36.115Z","2100-01-01T06:00:00.000Z"
"Will the title of the New York Times front page article on [X Date] include any of the words listed?",12,,"Amanda N","Amanda N","","This question is part of the EA Fellowship. To see the featured article: 
1. Go to newyorktimes.com
2. Click ‘Today’s Paper’ (https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper?redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F)
3. The front page article is the one with the biggest image right under ‘The Front Page’","EA-fellowship","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T01:57:24.019Z","2020-12-23T01:52:36.115Z","2100-01-01T06:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 95% of people signed up for this EA Fellowship round come to next week’s session?",10,,"Amanda N","Amanda N","","This question is part of the EA Fellowship. It resolves according to the number of people who are physically or digitally present at the next EA Fellowship event.","EA-fellowship","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T01:54:22.830Z","2020-12-23T01:53:07.494Z","2100-01-01T06:00:00.000Z"
"Will more than 95% of people signed up for this EA Fellowship round come to next week’s session?",12,,"Amanda N","Amanda N","","This question is part of the EA Fellowship. It resolves according to the number of people who are physically or digitally present at the next EA Fellowship event.","EA-fellowship","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-12-23T01:57:27.366Z","2020-12-23T01:53:07.494Z","2100-01-01T06:00:00.000Z"
"Artificial ears which are comparable to or superior than natural ears will be developed by 2050",60,,"btrettel","btrettel",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-25T00:51:02.000Z","2015-08-25T00:51:02.000Z","2050-01-01T18:00:00.000Z"
"By 2030 around one billion people in Zhongguo would be middle class — approximately 70% of its projected population.",95,,"Raahul_Kumar","Raahul_Kumar",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-12-02T12:12:53.000Z","2015-12-02T12:12:53.000Z","2030-12-03T07:30:00.000Z"
"By January 1, 2036, shown that at least the first 10^15 non-trivial zeros of the Riemann Zeta function  obey the Riemann hypothesis (that is lie on the   s= 1/2 line)",85,,"JoshuaZ","JoshuaZ",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-08-27T01:06:47.000Z","2015-08-27T01:06:47.000Z","2036-01-01T12:00:00.000Z"
"I will retire at the end of June.",90,,"bhh322","bhh322",,,"","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2015-11-28T16:49:38.000Z","2015-11-28T16:49:38.000Z","2016-06-15T12:00:00.000Z"
"At least ten tweets in 2020",80,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,personal","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
"I get back into meditating seriously (at least ten minutes a day, five days a week) for at least a month, by 2021",10,,"Scott Alexander","Scott Alexander",,,"ssc,personal","PUBLIC","PUBLIC","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2020-04-29T00:00:00.000Z","2021-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"