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metaforecast/data/merged-questions.csv

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1TitleURLPlatformBinary question?Percentage# Forecasts
2Some titlesomeurl.comsome platformtrueX%/none15
3Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%2050%20prediction%20questions%20embedded%20in%20LessWrong%20posts%20and%20comments%20this%20month?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue56.39%337
4Will more than 50 people predict on this post?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more%20than%2050%20people%20predict%20on%20this%20post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue81.90%228
5Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue36.85%158
6Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20without%20additional%20intervention%20from%20the%20existing%20AI%20Alignment%20research%20community?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue52.70%137
7Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20arms%20race%20dynamic%20in%20the%20lead-up%20to%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue75.52%113
8The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20new%20English%20Strain%20is%20at%20least%2050%%20more%20infectious%20than%20the%20currently%20dominant%20American%20strain%20of%20Covid-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue63.37%211
9Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20single%20AGI%20or%20AGI%20project%20achieve%20a%20decisive%20strategic%20advantage?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue61.63%115
10How vivid is your visual imagination?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue50.68%119
11Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%20deep%20learning%20with%20small%20variations,%20without%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue33.50%110
12Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue42.70%107
13Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20we%20build%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue11.79%100
14How vivid is your sound imagination?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20sound%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue61.17%106
15Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20another%20AI%20Winter%20(a%20period%20commonly%20referred%20to%20as%20such)%20before%20we%20develop%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue28.63%95
16Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%201-3%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue43.12%112
17There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20an%20additional%20distinct%20large%20wave%20of%20Covid-19%20infections%20in%20the%20United%20States%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue58.18%158
18How vivid is your taste imagination?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20taste%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue25.73%84
19How vivid is your smell imagination?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20smell%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue25.41%82
20Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20need%20>%203%20breakthroughs%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning%20to%20get%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue25.38%84
21How frequently do you think in words?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue78.13%86
22Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue19.76%87
23Do you have an internal monologue?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue82.28%80
24How vivid is your touch imagination?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue36.13%79
25How much control do you have over your mind?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20much%20control%20do%20you%20have%20over%20your%20mind?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue45.59%76
26How good is your memory?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue53.25%77
27Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue42.76%85
28Trump will win a second termhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20win%20a%20second%20term&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue46.20%74
29Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue31.56%66
30Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20continue%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue24.51%75
31Will the post "Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the%20post%20"Embedded%20Interactive%20Predictions%20on%20LessWrong"%20get%20more%20than%2080%20karma%20by%20December%201st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue89.52%83
32Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5xhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Having%20a%20button/prompt%20for%20Elicit%20on%20LW%20would%20increase%20usage%20by%20at%20least%205x&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue60.22%41
33By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025%20bitcoin%20will%20no%20longer%20be%20the%20highest%20traded%20cryptocurrency.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue55.49%37
34A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Singularity%20will%20not%20occur%20by%20the%20year%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue68.71%42
35Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue61.12%42
36Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign statehttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202025,%20most%20of%20Russia%20will%20become%20part%20of%20the%20United%20States,%20or%20the%20reverse,%20or%20they%20will%20in%20some%20other%20manner%20become%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state,%20or%20part%20of%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue0.79%34
37The Pope will be assassinated.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Pope%20will%20be%20assassinated.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue3.03%32
38Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue47.38%47
39Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue36.91%34
40PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue83.00%40
41"There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin" --Bill Walker, BBChttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin"%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue2.91%33
42The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue38.97%31
43Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue54.94%47
44No military draft in the United States before 2020.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue90.27%33
45No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue82.13%32
46Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue47.00%34
47Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue8.81%31
48Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organised%20religions%20will%20no%20longer%20exist%20in%20any%20meaningful%20way%20and%20religion%20will%20no%20longer%20have%20any%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue8.68%28
49Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue0.23%26
50Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue40.24%42
51Trump wins Nobelhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue10.55%38
52California will secede from the United States before 2021https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue0.68%34
53Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue1.88%26
54Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue46.84%32
55...be an environmental disaster.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue27.35%26
56For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue58.56%34
57"I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases."https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue9.69%26
5850% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legghttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue24.39%28
59The Singularity will occur by 2050.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue35.12%25
60Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue7.46%26
61Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue62.27%26
62By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue6.67%24
63Will there be an "Inverse AlphaFold" by end of 2025?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20"Inverse%20AlphaFold"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue33.91%33
64PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue68.88%25
65Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue19.35%23
66Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue84.11%27
67TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue58.15%39
68Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue99.41%22
69Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue20.48%29
70In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue26.36%25
71Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue60.84%32
72The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue37.46%24
73Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue34.13%47
74...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue70.75%20
75Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue27.83%35
76Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue4.74%23
77Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue21.64%22
78Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue11.68%22
79Google will survive for 15 more yearshttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue88.38%21
80China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue7.45%22
81Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue15.33%21
82The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue72.43%23
83Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue56.94%35
84Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue83.14%22
85Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue6.95%20
86United States will invade Australia and take overhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue10.00%21
87Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue39.69%35
88No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue86.75%24
8990% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legghttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue47.05%21
90Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue54.20%20
91No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue74.85%20
92Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Strosshttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue2.21%19
93...all-things-considered, be good for the world.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue81.81%26
94...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue17.37%19
95...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue50.74%19
96...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue36.45%20
97There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue64.28%18
98We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue12.05%21
99Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue64.80%40
100The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decadehttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue67.55%22
101“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue40.27%26
102What percentage of people experience a "Clogged drainpipe" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20"Clogged%20drainpipe"%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue64.34%50
103Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presencehttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue3.32%22
104Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue51.78%18
105A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue21.62%21
106The strategy-stealing assumption is "a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20"a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue33.27%26
107The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue83.95%21
108'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarkehttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue1.80%25
109Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue47.17%23
110Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue69.33%18
111“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue35.00%23
112A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue30.95%20
113My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue8.39%18
114Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue12.79%19
115It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue1.72%18
116Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue26.89%19
117aliens invade earth in 2023https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue0.94%18
118Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue4.13%16
119An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue8.12%17
120If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue77.71%17
121A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue4.90%20
122US presidents term limits abolishedhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue2.24%17
123Man will travel to Mars by 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue42.89%18
124Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue35.53%19
125An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue57.78%18
126By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue34.67%18
127Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable "in ten thousand years, or so"https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue19.11%19
128Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential electionhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue95.32%19
129Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue59.36%25
130Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue55.18%17
131The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue28.00%20
132If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue73.94%17
133If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue29.44%16
134If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue66.47%17
135Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue14.48%25
136Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue76.55%20
137The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue78.12%17
138Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue56.90%29
139Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue3.71%17
140Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue92.69%16
141Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue11.81%16
142There will NOT be a "World War III" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's "allies" and NATO and/or western europe)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20"World%20War%20III"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20"allies"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue93.31%16
143C still widely in use in the 2020shttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue93.53%15
144A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue43.47%19
145USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue41.47%17
146In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue9.47%15
147North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue5.94%17
148The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue11.73%15
149I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue82.20%15
150If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue17.39%18
151Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue7.00%18
152The message begins with "Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow". Should we execute it?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue7.86%14
153By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue53.00%14
154Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue47.39%18
155"by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system"https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue6.20%15
156"Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs." --James Millerhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs."%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue9.55%20
157Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue14.00%15
158By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue28.21%14
159Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue11.19%16
160The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue17.00%15
161Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue87.18%17
162A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue8.79%14
163The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue9.82%17
164The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue30.26%19
165Humanity still a thing in 2036https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue89.00%13
166By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue38.31%13
167By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue11.08%13
168Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue10.69%16
169Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, "How to create a mind")https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue26.75%16
170USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue4.50%16
171The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue44.46%26
172Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue29.79%14
173ETI is AGIhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue84.61%18
174Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldthttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue32.06%16
175There be a "SETI Winter" before First Contact.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20"SETI%20Winter"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue73.89%19
176We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue40.84%19
177Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue29.33%18
178Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hansonhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue27.64%14
179The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue14.62%13
180North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue5.33%15
181Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue85.31%16
182In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue14.69%13
183By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vancehttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue44.15%13
184If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI "spaceship" be larger than 1m in size?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20"spaceship"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue51.36%14
185Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue9.47%15
186Truly "Pilotless" air travel will be the standard in 2050.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20"Pilotless"%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue62.71%14
187Trump dies of COVID-19https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue6.63%32
188Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from todayhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue33.75%16
189Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue13.37%19
190The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue18.54%13
191All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue4.92%13
192"The Essential Workers" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="The%20Essential%20Workers"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue40.27%15
193Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue4.08%13
19410 millionhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue8.42%36
195The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue51.07%14
196The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue30.40%15
197In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue46.07%14
198North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue20.25%16
199“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue35.00%12
200At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new sitehttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue78.92%13
201Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue52.47%15
202the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshanskyhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue7.64%14
203Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue49.24%33
204The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue46.69%13
2051 year continuous human habitation of the moonhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue15.93%14
206If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to "train it away"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20"train%20it%20away"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue63.15%26
207If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue70.00%15
208If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue43.11%19
209“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue3.83%12
210Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue63.33%15
211Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue1.31%13
212There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue63.00%13
213Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adamshttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue0.60%15
214Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue33.58%12
215100 millionhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue0.79%29
216The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue17.50%14
217Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldthttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue69.69%13
218Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldthttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue37.08%13
219Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue18.25%12
220No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue60.83%12
221We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue24.33%12
222Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue4.64%14
223Alphabet/Google buys Microsofthttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue7.71%14
224'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevinhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue14.17%12
225Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue14.33%15
226Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue86.83%12
227By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweilhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue2.73%15
228"Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150." -lukeproghttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150."%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue66.54%13
229They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue55.57%14
230The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue40.82%22
231A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue38.64%11
232As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue67.79%14
233The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue55.00%26
234Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the "same"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some "final being"?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20"same"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20"final%20being"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue26.27%11
235"within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million." --Dennis Manganhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million."%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue64.82%11
236No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue77.83%12
237China will land a man on Mars by 2050.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue43.08%13
238Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue33.20%15
239Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue57.00%13
240The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue28.88%25
241"At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150."https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue56.21%14
242GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue41.54%13
243By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue93.25%12
244At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue23.67%12
245Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue23.38%24
246“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue40.91%11
247"there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years." - Scott Adamshttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years."%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue20.73%11
248Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue10.00%14
249Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue5.42%12
250some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 yearshttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue3.77%13
251The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue56.86%14
252With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue8.92%13
253By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue31.38%13
254No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demohttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue45.31%13
255At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue29.08%12
256The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue28.43%14
257"By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation."https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue16.33%12
258Trump will run for president in 2024https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue20.38%13
259The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue2.42%12
260SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue13.67%12
261Republicans will win the 2024 presidential electionhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue45.69%13
262In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue1.00%11
263Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue44.08%12
264Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the electionhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue10.18%11
265Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldthttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue65.93%14
266Trump wins the 2020 election.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue47.54%13
267Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldthttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue68.67%12
268Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldthttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue31.64%11
269Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue10.79%14
270Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue10.29%14
271Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue28.09%11
272“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Andersonhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue8.00%11
273Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue21.27%11
274We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue52.69%13
27550 millionhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue1.65%34
276The LW user account "Grognor" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20"Grognor"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue45.92%13
277Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue9.00%12
278Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue3.54%13
279People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue33.09%11
280Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue24.75%12
281'President Mike Pence'https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue14.06%16
282"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones" --Marc Andreessenhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue75.17%12
283Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue22.08%12
284“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue7.42%12
285“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue11.46%13
286“China will break apart by 2030”https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue24.60%10
287Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue27.79%14
288Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue46.70%10
289Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue34.38%16
290Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue15.50%12
291Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Greyhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue13.14%14
292Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldthttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue10.92%12
293By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearcehttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue16.00%10
294Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue26.10%10
295By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue13.08%12
296We ask ETI "do we live in a simulation"? They answer "yes".https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation"?%20They%20answer%20"yes".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue17.92%13
297EU to dissolve by 2040.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue39.45%11
298Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20 By%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue77.10%10
299P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Kenhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue44.17%12
300By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue30.90%10
301Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as "very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?"https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue29.64%11
302". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form." --Dan Kinghttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form."%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue11.46%13
303Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue29.08%13
304In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbughttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue9.36%14
3051,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue41.08%13
306At least one self-described "anarchist" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20"anarchist"%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue36.82%11
307A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue41.30%10
308By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue33.46%13
309The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue6.09%11
310HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue7.09%11
311The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue78.90%10
312In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue20.40%10
313Airbnb to be acquired by 2025https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue34.64%11
314By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue75.09%11
315By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue15.80%10
316Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue1.36%11
317Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue48.00%10
318No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue52.73%11
319Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Marshttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue17.30%10
320Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue0.50%10
321Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on ithttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue21.70%10
322By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue60.36%11
323WWIII starts before 2030.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue8.86%14
324homosexuality criminalized in the UShttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue2.50%10
325HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue56.91%11
326Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUShttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue11.30%10
327Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue55.60%10
328Caitlyn Jenner = POTUShttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue4.20%10
329SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue70.67%12
330Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue19.80%10
331More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue26.38%13
332A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue12.09%11
333Will the Universe end?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/161/will-the-universe-end/Metaculustrue70%548
334Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/Metaculustrue31%4894
335Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/Metaculustrue60%789
336When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/Metaculusfalsenone290
337Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/372/will-human-brain-emulation-be-the-first-successful-route-to-human-level-digital-intelligence/Metaculustrue6%404
338The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/Metaculustrue12%789
339Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/Metaculustrue61%906
340Robocup Challengehttps://www.metaculus.com/questions/397/robocup-challenge/Metaculustrue25%300
341When will there be machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO construction?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/Metaculusfalsenone293
342When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/Metaculusfalsenone477
343When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/418/when-will-the-first-law-concerning-artificial-intelligence-be-passed-in-the-us/Metaculusfalsenone422
344If you die today and get cryonically frozen, will you "wake up"?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/455/if-you-die-today-and-get-cryonically-frozen-will-you-wake-up/Metaculustrue6%530
345If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/480/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-white-winning/Metaculustrue35%125
346Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/489/will-the-european-union-meet-its-2030-targets-under-the-paris-climate-treaty/Metaculustrue35%289
347Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/491/will-china-achieve-its-paris-climate-agreement-goals/Metaculustrue65%263
348With an international nuclear weapons ban in place, will a country that has nuclear weapons actually give them up by 2035?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/Metaculustrue20%255
349Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/512/will-an-ai-system-do-credibly-well-on-a-full-math-sat-exam-by-2025/Metaculustrue71%641
350Will the first commercial hyperloop system be within the US?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/513/will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-be-within-the-us/Metaculustrue36%269
351A major United States earthquake by 2023?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/570/a-major-united-states-earthquake-within-the-next-five-years/Metaculustrue33%515
352Will humans go extinct by 2100?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/Metaculustrue1%644
353Will VR or AR Headsets dominate by 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/579/will-vr-or-ar-headsets-dominate-by-2025/Metaculustrue50%248
3542˚C global warming by 2100?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/Metaculustrue89%358
355World Population in 2050?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/Metaculusfalsenone305
356If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/Metaculusfalsenone79
357Increased off-world population in 2050?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/594/off-world-population-in-2050/Metaculustrue94%450
358Will a sample of negative energy be produced by 2100?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/600/will-a-sample-of-negative-energy-be-produced-by-2100/Metaculustrue20%225
359Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected within the next 10 years?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/604/will-gravitational-waves-from-the-merger-of-supermassive-black-holes-be-detected-within-the-next-10-years/Metaculustrue68%255
360How much global warming by 2100?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/605/how-much-global-warming-by-2100/Metaculusfalsenone454
361Answer to signal broadcast into space by 2045?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/606/answer-to-signal-broadcast-into-space-by-2045/Metaculustrue1%241
362Will our current peace be shorter than the Pax Romana?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/610/will-our-current-peace-be-shorter-than-the-pax-romana/Metaculustrue53%354
363Will there be a Vegan Country by 2100?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/614/will-there-be-a-vegan-country-by-2100/Metaculustrue20%456
364Will we reach the island of stability by 2050?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/658/will-we-reach-the-island-of-stability-by-2050/Metaculustrue45%196
365Kessler syndrome by 2050?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/665/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-operational-in-2030/Metaculustrue15%422
366When will the world create the first Trillionaire?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/Metaculusfalsenone350
367By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/684/by-2025-will-someone-be-able-to-hold-hisher-breath-for-30-minutes/Metaculustrue15%228
368Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/685/will-the-us-get-rid-of-the-penny-by-2025/Metaculustrue25%362
369Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/Metaculustrue55.00000000000001%425
370When will there be a mile-high building?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/735/when-will-there-be-a-mile-high-building/Metaculusfalsenone203
371Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/will-there-be-a-complete-4-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles-before-the-first-1-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles/Metaculustrue71%278
372Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/737/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-by-2030/Metaculustrue85%1049
373Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/Metaculustrue50%374
374Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/804/1000th-binary-question-resolution-is-positive/Metaculustrue35%84
375Will Europa be the first place humanity will discover extraterrestrial life, if it is discovered by 2045?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/808/will-europa-be-the-first-place-humanity-will-discover-extraterrestrial-life-if-it-is-discovered-by-2045/Metaculustrue22%337
376Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/809/will-a-member-of-president-trumps-inner-circle-be-sentenced-to-jail-by-2023/Metaculustrue90%315
377Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/824/will-a-practical-nuclear-fusion-reactor-first-be-developed-in-china/Metaculustrue30%314
378Will Metaculus exist in 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/841/will-metaculus-exist-in-2030/Metaculustrue85%456
379Will the world's richest person in 2033 have a net worth greater than that of John D. Rockefeller in 1913?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/899/will-the-worlds-richest-person-in-2033-have-a-net-worth-greater-than-that-of-john-d-rockefeller-in-1913/Metaculustrue33%245
380Will we discover clear evidence of proton decay by 2040?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/915/will-we-discover-clear-evidence-of-proton-decay-by-2040/Metaculustrue30%150
381Will another 9/11 on U.S. soil be prevented at least through 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/916/will-another-911-on-us-soil-be-prevented-at-least-through-2030/Metaculustrue75%224
382Will a space elevator successfully be built by 2100?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/917/will-a-space-elevator-successfully-be-built-by-2100/Metaculustrue8%355
383When will we get the last communication from Voyager 1?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/943/when-will-we-get-the-last-communication-from-voyager-1/Metaculusfalsenone112
384Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/953/will-mike-pence-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-in-2024/Metaculustrue5%209
385Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/Metaculustrue16%1116
386Will cost-adjusted IT technology be worse than it was 8 years (32 quarters) ago in at least one quarter prior to 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/968/will-cost-adjusted-it-technology-be-worse-than-it-was-8-years-32-quarters-ago-in-at-least-one-quarter-prior-to-2030/Metaculustrue26%126
387When will commercial supersonic flight return?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/969/when-will-commercial-supersonic-flight-return/Metaculusfalsenone261
388Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/Metaculustrue23%540
389Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-by-2024/Metaculustrue70%346
390Any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1002/any-progress-in-human-lifespan-enhancement-by-2100/Metaculustrue90%297
391Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/Metaculustrue30%350
392Will there be a city on Earth with a population of over 100 million by 2100?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1052/will-there-be-a-city-on-earth-with-a-population-of-over-100-million-by-2100/Metaculustrue54%266
393How long will the Great Pyramids be recognizable?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1056/how-long-will-the-great-pyramids-be-recognizable/Metaculusfalsenone198
394Will humanity (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered "under serious threat" by 2040?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1058/will-humanity-essentially-run-out-of-at-least-one-element-currently-considered-under-serious-threat-by-2040/Metaculustrue33%174
395Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1059/before-2051-will-a-meteor-cause-more-injuries-than-the-one-that-shook-chelyabinsk-russia-in-2013/Metaculustrue50%34
396Will there be a 9 foot tall human by 2075?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1061/will-there-be-a-9-foot-tall-human-by-2075/Metaculustrue25%217
397When will the student loan debt bubble "pop"?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1085/when-will-the-student-loan-debt-bubble-pop/Metaculusfalsenone152
398When will the last member of our species, homo sapiens, be born?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1088/when-will-the-last-member-of-our-species-homo-sapiens-be-born/Metaculusfalsenone199
399Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/Metaculustrue38%277
400Will Ray Kurzweil be proven right?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1321/will-ray-kurzweil-be-proven-right/Metaculustrue25%190
401Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1332/will-global-malaria-mortality-rates-be-reduced-by-90-when-compared-with-2015-rates-by-2030/Metaculustrue33%220
402Drake's Equation 1st Parameter R∗: What is the average rate of formation of suitable stars (stars/year) in our galaxy?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337/drakes-equation-1st-parameter-r/Metaculusfalsenone228
403Drake's Equation 2nd parameter f_p: What fraction of stars form planets?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1338/drakes-equation-2nd-parameter-f_p/Metaculusfalsenone249
404Drake's Equation 3rd parameter n_e: What is the average number of habitable planets per star?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-3rd-parameter-n_e/Metaculusfalsenone230
405Drake's Equation 4th parameter f_l: On what fraction of habitable planets does any form of life emerge?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1340/drakes-equation-4th-parameter-f_l/Metaculusfalsenone279
406Drake's Equation 5th parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1341/drakes-equation-5th-parameter-f_i/Metaculusfalsenone231
407Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/Metaculusfalsenone245
408Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: For how many years does a civilization remain detectable?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1343/drakes-equation-7th-parameter-l/Metaculusfalsenone226
409Will a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launch by 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1348/will-a-mission-to-land-a-spacecraft-on-europa-launch-by-2030/Metaculustrue40%129
410Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1385/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-psilocybin-be-a-clinically-approved-treatment-for-end-of-life-anxiety-by-2027/Metaculustrue64%235
411Will AI progress surprise us?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/Metaculustrue75%468
412Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1402/will-parker-solar-probe-survive-its-24-loops-around-the-sun-while-getting-just-a-few-million-miles-away-from-the-surface-of-our-star/Metaculustrue75%131
413Does P = NP? Informally: If the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem be easy to solve?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1408/does-p--np-informally-if-the-solution-to-a-problem-is-easy-to-check-for-correctness-must-the-problem-be-easy-to-solve/Metaculustrue3%194
414When will one TeraFlOPS cost $1?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1416/when-will-one-teraflops-cost-1/Metaculusfalsenone139
415When will a fifth nation be able to launch people into space?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1431/when-will-a-fifth-nation-be-able-to-launch-people-into-space/Metaculusfalsenone173
416Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/Metaculustrue75%484
417Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in colleges in 2025 be ≥10% less than were enrolled in 2015?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1433/will-the-fraction-of-american-18-24-year-olds-enrolled-in-colleges-in-2025-be-10-less-than-were-enrolled-in-2015/Metaculustrue20%182
418When will India send their first own astronauts to space?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/Metaculusfalsenone217
419When will the longest spaceflight of any one person reach 5 years?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1435/when-will-the-longest-spaceflight-of-any-one-person-reach-5-years/Metaculusfalsenone117
420Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1444/will-an-openly-lgbtq-person-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-by-2041/Metaculustrue15%176
421A freer China? Chinese political rights and civil liberties in 2028https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1454/a-freer-china-chinese-political-rights-and-civil-liberties-in-2028/Metaculusfalsenone146
422Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1457/will-angela-merkel-remain-chancellor-after-the-next-german-federal-elections/Metaculustrue3%290
423Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/Metaculustrue90%277
424Will we know what Dark Matter is before 2050?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1469/will-we-know-what-dark-matter-is-before-2050/Metaculustrue50%197
425Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/Metaculustrue5%285
426Will any intelligent living being (human descendants, aliens, etc.) ever listen to the copy of Blind Willie Johnson's "Dark Was the Night" on Voyager I's Golden Record?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1480/will-any-intelligent-living-being-human-descendants-aliens-etc-ever-listen-to-the-copy-of-blind-willie-johnsons-dark-was-the-night-on-voyager-is-golden-record/Metaculustrue4%172
427When will either the Democratic or Republican party in the US cease to exist?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1481/when-will-either-the-democratic-or-republican-party-in-the-us-cease-to-exist/Metaculusfalsenone121
428What percentage of Americans will be considered obese or overweight in 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1482/what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-considered-obese-or-overweight-in-2030/Metaculusfalsenone268
429What will be Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer in 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1492/what-will-be-top500s-1-performing-supercomputer-as-a-multiple-of-the-500-performer-in-2030/Metaculusfalsenone86
430Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/Metaculustrue24%231
431Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/Metaculustrue27%183
432Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/Metaculustrue20%241
433Will the eventual consensus explanation of star KIC 8462852 variability be an intervening molecular cloud?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1497/will-the-eventual-consensus-explanation-of-star-kic-8462852-variability-be-an-intervening-molecular-cloud/Metaculustrue30%53
434Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/Metaculustrue15%279
435Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/Metaculustrue3%130
436Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/Metaculustrue26%183
437How many NASA "space launch system" (SLS) launches before 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1503/how-many-nasa-space-launch-system-sls-launches-before-2030/Metaculusfalsenone180
438Do humans have functionally important neurogenesis throughout their life?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1515/do-humans-have-functionally-important-neurogenesis-throughout-their-life/Metaculustrue65%131
439Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1517/will-the-identity-of-bitcoins-founder-satoshi-nakamoto-be-revealed-to-the-general-public-by-2025/Metaculustrue8%407
440When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/Metaculusfalsenone265
441Will most protons that currently make up Earth (and you) eventually decay?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1535/will-most-protons-that-currently-make-up-earth-and-you-eventually-decay/Metaculustrue50%64
442Will a third LIGO detector be built in India by 2027?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1536/will-a-third-ligo-detector-be-built-in-india-by-2027/Metaculustrue50%75
443When will the first cloned human be born?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1537/when-will-the-first-cloned-human-be-born/Metaculusfalsenone150
444Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1538/will-metaculus-predict-that-artificial-intelligence-continues-to-pose-a-global-catastrophic-risk/Metaculustrue73%104
4453.6°C global warming by 2100?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1539/36c-global-warming-by-2100/Metaculustrue31%125
446Is non-theism (atheists and agnostics) growing globally?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1552/is-non-theism-atheists-and-agnostics-growing-globally/Metaculusfalsenone179
447The Rise and Fall of the Banana: Will the current main export cultivar, the Cavendish, be replaced by 2035?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1558/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-banana-will-the-current-main-export-cultivar-the-cavendish-be-replaced-by-2035/Metaculustrue49%123
448Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1568/will-we-detect-an-exoplanet-atmosphere-with-5-oxygen-atmosphere-by-2030/Metaculustrue55.00000000000001%153
449What will the World's GDP be in 2028?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1574/what-will-the-worlds-gdp-be-in-2028/Metaculusfalsenone128
450Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1576/fewer-than-375m-in-extreme-poverty-by-2030/Metaculustrue25%179
451Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/Metaculustrue89%396
452When will the first publicly traded company achieve a $10 trillion market capitalisation?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1584/when-will-the-first-publicly-traded-company-achieve-a-10-trillion-market-capitalisation/Metaculusfalsenone118
453Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/Metaculustrue5%143
454Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1591/will-the-impact-of-the-effective-altruism-movement-be-picked-up-by-google-trends-in-2030/Metaculustrue80%105
455What year will the 2˚C climate threshold be crossed?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1596/what-year-will-the-2c-climate-threshold-be-crossed/Metaculusfalsenone136
456Will Elon Musk (attempt to) go to Mars?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1598/will-elon-musk-attempt-to-go-to-mars/Metaculustrue30%385
457The Top500's total sum in 2030 as a multiple of the total sum in 2015https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1600/the-top500s-total-sum-in-2030-as-a-multiple-of-the-total-sum-in-2015/Metaculusfalsenone126
458Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/Metaculustrue1%139
459Is the Zuma satellite still in orbit?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1618/is-the-zuma-satellite-still-in-orbit/Metaculustrue42%116
460When will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/Metaculusfalsenone123
461What will be the heaviest payload put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service at start of 2050?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1620/what-will-be-the-heaviest-payload-put-into-leo-by-a-launch-vehicle-that-is-in-service-at-start-of-2050/Metaculusfalsenone69
462Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the United States Food and Drug Administration before January 1 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1621/will-a-senolytic-therapy-be-approved-for-commercial-sale-by-the-united-states-food-and-drug-administration-before-january-1-2030/Metaculustrue60%177
463Will a mouse be confirmed to have lived for 2,500 days before 1 January 2035?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1624/will-a-mouse-be-confirmed-to-have-lived-for-2500-days-before-1-january-2035/Metaculustrue50%177
464By 1 January 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1625/by-1-january-2050-will-it-be-possible-to-increase-a-healthy-adult-humans-iq-by-at-least-two-standard-deviations-in-less-than-30-days/Metaculustrue20%165
465Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/Metaculustrue8%224
466What will be the longest verified human lifespan on record on January 1 2050?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1628/what-will-be-the-longest-verified-human-lifespan-on-record-on-january-1-2050/Metaculusfalsenone172
467Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/Metaculustrue5%238
468What percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1630/what-percentage-of-us-residents-will-be-aged-100-years-or-older-on-january-1-2050/Metaculusfalsenone77
469Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1631/will-cuba-still-be-a-communist-state-in-2023/Metaculustrue90%216
470Will US income inequality increase by 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1634/will-us-income-inequality-increase-by-2025/Metaculustrue50%212
471When will a crewed spacecraft enter interstellar space for the first time?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1637/when-will-a-crewed-spacecraft-enter-interstellar-space-for-the-first-time/Metaculusfalsenone181
472Will Alex Jones ever hold high Federal office in the United States before 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1638/will-alex-jones-ever-hold-high-federal-office-in-the-united-states-before-2030/Metaculustrue1%221
473Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/Metaculustrue26%225
474Will it once again be possible to travel between London and New York City by any commercially available means in under three hours by 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1642/will-it-once-again-be-possible-to-travel-between-london-and-new-york-city-by-any-commercially-available-means-in-under-three-hours-by-2030/Metaculustrue34%266
475Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/Metaculustrue99%368
476Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1644/will-a-von-neumann-probe-be-launched-before-2050/Metaculustrue16%70
477Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/Metaculustrue7.000000000000001%227
478Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1646/will-the-human-condition-change-fundamentally-before-2100/Metaculustrue75%135
479What will be the greatest velocity attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1648/what-will-be-the-greatest-velocity-attained-by-a-human-made-spacecraft-before-2050/Metaculusfalsenone117
480Will the Second Amendment to the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1650/will-the-second-amendment-to-the-united-states-constitution-be-amended-or-repealed-before-2025/Metaculustrue1%150
481A breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1651/a-breakthrough-in-accurately-predicting-protein-structure-before-2031/Metaculustrue99%282
482Will functional respirocytes be used successfully in any mammal before 2035?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1653/will-functional-respirocytes-be-used-successfully-in-any-mammal-before-2035/Metaculustrue40%115
483When will the average survival rate of all cancers exceed 75%?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1654/when-will-the-average-survival-rate-of-all-cancers-exceed-75/Metaculusfalsenone125
484When will there be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1655/when-will-there-be-a-breakthrough-in-the-treatment-of-hard-to-treat-cancers/Metaculusfalsenone120
485When will the 10,000th human reach space?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/Metaculusfalsenone142
486Will any asteroid or comet have been mined in space for commercial purposes before 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1662/will-any-asteroid-or-comet-have-been-mined-in-space-for-commercial-purposes-before-2030/Metaculustrue10%220
487Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1663/will-the-usas-labor-force-participation-rate-be-lower-in-2023-than-in-2018/Metaculustrue70%173
488When will Reuters journalists Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo be released from prison?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1667/when-will-reuters-journalists-wa-lone-and-kyaw-soe-oo-be-released-from-prison/Metaculusfalsenone29
489If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1669/if-the-james-webb-space-telescope-is-launched-will-it-succeed-in-transmitting-cosmological-data/Metaculustrue90%160
490Will George R. R. Martin die before the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire is published?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1681/will-george-r-r-martin-die-before-the-final-book-of-a-song-of-ice-and-fire-is-published/Metaculustrue73%310
491When will PHP die?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/Metaculusfalsenone92
492Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/Metaculustrue60%339
493Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/Metaculustrue56.99999999999999%152
494Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/Metaculustrue5%105
495Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2518/will-there-be-another-vei-level-six-or-higher-volcanic-eruption-on-earth-before-2025/Metaculustrue5%138
496When will the first human be born on another world?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2533/when-will-the-first-human-be-born-on-another-world/Metaculusfalsenone157
497Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/Metaculustrue15%554
498When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2536/when-will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-resolved/Metaculusfalsenone127
499Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2561/will-a-metaculus-user-report-from-space-before-2050/Metaculustrue61%172
500What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2563/what-will-the-atmospheric-co2-concentration-be-in-2030/Metaculusfalsenone165
501When will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach 60 years in all countries?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2575/when-will-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-reach-60-years-in-all-countries/Metaculusfalsenone141
502When will a DUI be overruled or turned down due to riding a driverless car?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2576/when-will-a-dui-be-overruled-or-turned-down-due-to-riding-a-driverless-car/Metaculusfalsenone76
503Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/Metaculustrue20%566
504Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2578/will-an-airborne-wind-energy-system-of-at-least-100kw-be-sold-before-2022/Metaculustrue40%70
505When will India become a World Bank high-income country?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2582/when-will-india-become-a-world-bank-high-income-country/Metaculusfalsenone145
506When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2585/when-will-the-us-national-debt-reach-25-trillion/Metaculusfalsenone302
507When will we have micropayments?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2592/when-will-we-have-micropayments/Metaculusfalsenone78
508When will North Korea have a McDonald's?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2593/when-will-north-korea-have-a-mcdonalds/Metaculusfalsenone105
509Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2598/metaculus-web-app-by-2024/Metaculustrue60%52
510Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2599/will-any-of-the-20-most-valuable-public-companies-in-the-united-states-as-of-january-2019-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2025/Metaculustrue23%207
511Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2605/will-any-countrys-military-expenditure-exceed-that-of-the-united-states-before-2030/Metaculustrue7.000000000000001%173
512Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2606/ai-to-prompt-new-starcraft/Metaculustrue27%50
513Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2611/will-synthetic-biological-weapons-infect-100-people-by-2030/Metaculustrue39%138
514Will any Member State leave the Eurozone by 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2616/will-any-member-state-leave-the-eurozone-by-2025/Metaculustrue18%193
515When will Haiti become an upper middle-income country?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2617/when-will-haiti-become-an-upper-middle-income-country/Metaculusfalsenone89
516Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/Metaculustrue25%263
517What will be the highest level of annual GDP growth in the US before 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/Metaculusfalsenone122
518Will Nigeria's population exceed 400 million before 2050?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2632/will-nigerias-population-exceed-400-million-before-2050/Metaculustrue40%130
519When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2638/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-2-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/Metaculustrue65%286
520When will a robot poker player win a significant live (not online) competition?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2641/when-will-a-robot-poker-player-win-a-significant-live-not-online-competition/Metaculusfalsenone147
521When will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversary?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/Metaculusfalsenone152
522A tech boom to surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more by 2024?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2645/a-tech-boom-to-surpass-the-dotcom-bubble-for-one-quarter-or-more-by-2024/Metaculustrue69%270
523What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2646/what-will-the-necessary-computational-power-to-replicate-human-mental-capability-turn-out-to-be/Metaculusfalsenone196
524Will the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) be finished on time?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2649/will-the-square-kilometre-array-ska-be-finished-on-time/Metaculustrue30%102
525Will Volkswagen Group produce fewer than 22 million electric vehicles by 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2665/will-volkswagen-group-produce-fewer-than-22-million-electric-vehicles-by-2030/Metaculustrue63%91
526Will Germany fail to meet their coal commission’s goals?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2666/will-germany-fail-to-meet-their-coal-commissions-goals/Metaculustrue65%81
527Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2669/will-world-gdp-grow-every-year-until-2025/Metaculustrue1%720
528Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2671/will-the-united-states-fulfill-its-goal-of-landing-humans-on-the-moon-again-before-2025/Metaculustrue24%768
529Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2709/will-the-international-thermonuclear-experimental-reactor-iter-start-operating-by-end-of-2025/Metaculustrue17%144
530Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income introduced in any EU country before 2041?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/Metaculustrue75%153
531Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2713/will-there-be-more-people-with-hivaids-in-2037-than-in-2017/Metaculustrue20%194
532Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/Metaculustrue32%83
533Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated by 2050?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2751/will-the-text-of-the-voynich-manuscript-be-successfully-translated-by-2050/Metaculustrue40%113
534Will Apollo 10's Lunar Module be recovered by 2050?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2762/will-apollo-10s-lunar-module-be-recovered-by-2050/Metaculustrue7.000000000000001%96
535When will the first successful entirely artificial extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2769/when-will-the-first-successful-entirely-artificial-extracorporeal-human-pregnancy-conclude/Metaculusfalsenone69
536How far away will the closest known Black Hole lay in 2031?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2771/how-far-away-will-the-closest-known-black-hole-lay-in-2031/Metaculusfalsenone28
537Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2773/will-nigel-farage-become-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-before-2023/Metaculustrue1%200
538How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/Metaculusfalsenone211
539At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2783/at-the-end-of-2023-will-animal-charity-evaluators-recommend-a-charity-working-on-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-as-a-top-charity/Metaculustrue80%152
540By 2025, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2788/by-2025-will-laws-be-in-place-requiring-that-ai-systems-that-emulate-humans-must-reveal-to-people-that-they-are-ai/Metaculustrue65%122
541Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-launch-a-person-to-the-moon-before-2024/Metaculustrue4%175
542Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2024?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2024/Metaculustrue94%219
543When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/Metaculusfalsenone108
544Is the Collatz Conjecture true?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/Metaculustrue95%147
545Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/Metaculustrue92%77
546If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/Metaculusfalsenone141
547When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/Metaculusfalsenone56
548Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2807/will-the-uk-housing-market-crash-before-july-2023/Metaculustrue15%339
549If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2812/if-a-whole-human-brain-is-successfully-emulated-by-2100-what-is-the-maximum-number-of-humans-that-will-be-uploaded-in-any-5-year-period/Metaculusfalsenone108
550When will the first whole human brain be successfully emulated?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/Metaculusfalsenone127
551In 2029, will the US have as many or fewer nuclear warheads than it did in 2019?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2817/us-having-fewer-nukes-in-2029-than-2019/Metaculustrue70%147
552When will NASA's SLS first launch a person to the Moon?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-first-launch-a-person-to-the-moon/Metaculusfalsenone111
553If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2820/if-the-us-does-not-pursue-nuclear-disarmament-how-many-nuclear-warheads-will-it-have-in-2029/Metaculusfalsenone71
554If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2822/if-and-when-the-first-whole-human-brain-is-successfully-emulated-how-much-will-1-hour-of-subjective-run-time-cost/Metaculusfalsenone103
555Will there be another case of smallpox by the end of 2029?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2823/will-there-be-another-case-of-smallpox-by-the-end-of-2029/Metaculustrue9%134
556When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2898/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-10-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/Metaculustrue35%79
557Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/Metaculustrue45%91
558How many deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the year 2035?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2942/how-many-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-in-the-us-in-the-year-2035/Metaculusfalsenone47
559When will the global adult literacy rate reach 95%?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2943/when-will-the-global-adult-literacy-rate-reach-95/Metaculusfalsenone91
560How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the end of 2023?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2944/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-the-end-of-2023/Metaculusfalsenone181
561How many biological humans will be alive on the 31st of December 2300, conditional on there being more than 500M?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2954/how-many-biological-humans-will-be-alive-on-the-31st-of-december-2300-conditional-on-there-being-more-than-500m/Metaculusfalsenone130
562When will Elon Musk have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2955/when-will-elon-musk-have-any-device-such-as-a-brain-machine-interface-surgically-implanted-into-his-brain/Metaculusfalsenone181
563In 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3019/in-2029-how-many-small-firearms-per-capita-will-there-be-in-the-usa-according-to-the-small-arms-survey/Metaculusfalsenone154
564When will an AI pass the laugh test?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/Metaculusfalsenone95
565Will the significant discrepancies in Hubble parameter determinations be resolved by 2030 within the ΛCDM standard cosmological model?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3021/will-the-significant-discrepancies-in-hubble-parameter-determinations-be-resolved-by-2030-within-the-%25CE%25BBcdm-standard-cosmological-model/Metaculustrue50%48
566If there is a biotechnological or bioengineered organism catastrophe this century, when will it happen?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3023/if-there-is-a-biotechnological-or-bioengineered-organism-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/Metaculusfalsenone61
567When will the first human baby from stem cell-derived gametes be born?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3034/when-will-the-first-human-baby-from-stem-cell-derived-gametes-be-born/Metaculusfalsenone80
568When will the odds ratio of Metaculus' community prediction of the chance of AI catastrophe by 2100 either half or double from its value on 2019-08-21?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3040/when-will-the-odds-ratio-of-metaculus-community-prediction-of-the-chance-of-ai-catastrophe-by-2100-either-half-or-double-from-its-value-on-2019-08-21/Metaculusfalsenone54
569Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3042/will-wildfires-destroy-a-total-exceeding-10mha-of-global-tree-cover-in-any-year-by-the-end-of-2030/Metaculustrue43%65
570When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3044/when-will-any-country-have-a-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-of-at-least-100-years/Metaculusfalsenone120
571When will the first organ from a non-primate be successfully transplanted into a human?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3052/when-will-the-first-organ-from-a-non-primate-be-successfully-transplanted-into-a-human/Metaculusfalsenone99
572How many hours will the average American employee work per week in 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3054/how-many-hours-will-the-average-american-employee-work-per-week-in-2030/Metaculusfalsenone79
573When will a generative model produce a realistic 2-minute video, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3056/when-will-a-generative-model-produce-a-realistic-2-minute-video-at-a-256--256-resolution-or-better/Metaculusfalsenone71
574When will there be a publicly listed clean meat company?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/Metaculusfalsenone179
575When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/Metaculusfalsenone123
576How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/Metaculusfalsenone120
577How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027, in millions of USD?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3065/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2027-in-millions-of-usd/Metaculusfalsenone94
578How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030, in millions of USD?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3077/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2030-in-millions-of-usd/Metaculusfalsenone83
579How many Starlink satellites will be in operation at the end of 2027?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3078/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-in-operation-at-the-end-of-2027/Metaculusfalsenone178
580When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3081/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-20-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/Metaculusfalsenone102
581What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/Metaculusfalsenone210
582When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3086/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-80-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/Metaculusfalsenone67
583When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3087/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-20-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/Metaculusfalsenone100
584When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3088/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-80-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/Metaculusfalsenone117
585What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3091/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023/Metaculusfalsenone122
586What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2028?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3095/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2028/Metaculusfalsenone51
587What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2026?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3103/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2026/Metaculusfalsenone86
588What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2029?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3104/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2029/Metaculusfalsenone84
589When will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours, before Sep 15 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3106/when-will-a-discernible-coordinated-bitcoin-mining-pool-attain-50-of-the-hashing-power-for-24-hours-before-sep-15-2025/Metaculusfalsenone83
590How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3107/how-much-will-the-total-us-plant-based-milk-market-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023-in-millions-of-usd/Metaculusfalsenone85
591How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3108/how-much-will-the-total-us-plant-based-foods-market-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023-in-millions-of-usd/Metaculusfalsenone145
592Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before Sep 18th of 2024?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3109/will-general-electric-ge-file-for-chapter-7-or-chapter-11-bankruptcy-before-sep-18th-of-2024/Metaculustrue25%126
593Will Mars have a permanent population of 10,000 before the Moon does?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3112/will-mars-have-a-permanent-population-of-10000-before-the-moon-does/Metaculustrue35%216
594How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/Metaculusfalsenone126
595How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is between $8 and $20 per kg?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3115/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-between-8-and-20-per-kg/Metaculusfalsenone142
596Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/Metaculustrue79%138
597How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3120/how-many-publicly-traded-us-or-eu-based-plant-based-meat-producers-will-be-valued-at-1bn-or-more-on-october-4th-2023/Metaculusfalsenone71
598When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/Metaculusfalsenone105
599Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3000 in any calendar year before (and including) 2031?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3124/will-us-non-overseas-contingency-operations-military-deaths-exceed-3000-in-any-calendar-year-before-and-including-2031/Metaculustrue20%91
600Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3125/will-the-united-states-continue-to-be-among-the-20-countries-with-the-largest-deterioration-in-state-stability-over-the-2019-2029-period-according-to-the-fragile-states-index/Metaculustrue55.00000000000001%46
601Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/Metaculustrue10%83
602When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/Metaculusfalsenone70
603How much will be estimated to have been invested by VCs in U.S.-based plant-based meat startups, in millions of USD, in the calendar year 2022?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3138/how-much-will-be-estimated-to-have-been-invested-by-vcs-in-us-based-plant-based-meat-startups-in-millions-of-usd-in-the-calendar-year-2022/Metaculusfalsenone122
604When will a genetic change cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/Metaculusfalsenone87
605When will 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3141/when-will-100-people-or-more-be-in-space-or-on-any-astronomical-body-other-than-earth-simultaneously/Metaculusfalsenone206
606By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/Metaculusfalsenone217
607What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3144/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2025/Metaculusfalsenone78
608Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2035?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3150/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2035/Metaculustrue79%172
609How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3153/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-greater-than-20-per-kg/Metaculusfalsenone125
610If DNA alterations continue to require FDA approval by default, how many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be determined as safe to eat, by the end of July 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3155/if-dna-alterations-continue-to-require-fda-approval-by-default-how-many-intentionally-genomic-dna-altered-animals-will-be-determined-as-safe-to-eat-by-the-end-of-july-2025/Metaculusfalsenone62
611If there is a no-deal Brexit, what will be the average yearly % GDP growth of the UK in the subsequent five years?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3156/if-there-is-a-no-deal-brexit-what-will-be-the-average-yearly--gdp-growth-of-the-uk-in-the-subsequent-five-years/Metaculusfalsenone33
612Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3158/will-the-first-extraterrestrial-life-forms-we-encounter-be-carbon-based/Metaculustrue70%120
613Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3159/will-wework-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-1-january-2025/Metaculustrue67%372
614What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3191/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2030/Metaculusfalsenone73
615When will the milk of cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless be for sale in the United States?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3192/when-will-the-milk-of-cows-whose-dna-is-intentionally-altered-to-be-hornless-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/Metaculusfalsenone82
616If DNA alterations continue to require approval by default, when will the FDA find at least ten genetically edited animals as safe to eat?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3201/if-dna-alterations-continue-to-require-approval-by-default-when-will-the-fda-find-at-least-ten-genetically-edited-animals-as-safe-to-eat/Metaculusfalsenone84
617When will beef for human consumption, from cattle genetically edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3202/when-will-beef-for-human-consumption-from-cattle-genetically-edited-to-carry-a-copy-of-the-sry-gene-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/Metaculusfalsenone72
618What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3205/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/Metaculusfalsenone91
619Who will first land a person on Mars?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/Metaculusfalsenone224
620What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 7th Assessment Report?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3233/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-7th-assessment-report/Metaculusfalsenone76
621Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until 1 January 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3238/will-turkey-be-a-nato-member-continuously-until-1-january-2025/Metaculustrue80%176
622When will a clean meat flavoring product be approved for human consumption?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3239/when-will-a-clean-meat-flavoring-product-be-approved-for-human-consumption/Metaculusfalsenone90
623Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3241/will-the-iau-rework-its-definition-of-planetary-status-by-jan-1-2025/Metaculustrue25%65
624Will Robert Caro's fifth and final volume of his Lyndon Johnson biography be published during his lifetime?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3244/will-robert-caros-fifth-and-final-volume-of-his-lyndon-johnson-biography-be-published-during-his-lifetime/Metaculustrue53%85
625What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3245/what-will-be-the-us-average-weekly-hours-of-all-employees-total-non-farm-private-in-october-2025/Metaculusfalsenone128
626In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced annually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3246/in-what-year-will-the-total-number-of-hen-eggs-produced-annually-in-the-us-be-100-billion-or-less/Metaculusfalsenone86
627How many billions of hen eggs will be produced in the U.S. in the year ending in November 2023?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3247/how-many-billions-of-hen-eggs-will-be-produced-in-the-us-in-the-year-ending-in-november-2023/Metaculusfalsenone146
628How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3248/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2022-2024-period/Metaculusfalsenone121
629Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon, if the feat is achieved by the end of 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3251/will-israel-be-the-fourth-country-to-soft-land-on-the-moon-if-the-feat-is-achieved-by-the-end-of-2025/Metaculustrue30%124
630Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3252/will-the-brexit-party-win-any-seats-at-the-next-uk-general-election/Metaculustrue20%125
631When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 sites?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3271/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-70-sites/Metaculusfalsenone174
632When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/Metaculusfalsenone142
633When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3275/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-130-sites/Metaculusfalsenone88
634What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3277/what-will-be-the-average-overall-global-health-security-index-score-for-2030/Metaculusfalsenone28
635How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3289/how-many-gene-edited-babies-will-have-been-born-worldwide-by-the-end-of-2029/Metaculusfalsenone118
636What fraction of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3290/what-fraction-of-babies-born-in-the-us-in-2029-will-have-been-conceived-in-vitro/Metaculusfalsenone72
637How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2028 to 2030 period?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3324/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2028-to-2030-period/Metaculusfalsenone61
638How many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3325/how-many-billions-of-poultry-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030-according-to-fao-estimates/Metaculusfalsenone87
639When will most eggs produced in the USA be sexed before hatching?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/Metaculusfalsenone86
640If Sanders becomes president in 2020, how many unsheltered homeless people will there be in the US at the end of his term?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3328/if-sanders-becomes-president-in-2020-how-many-unsheltered-homeless-people-will-there-be-in-the-us-at-the-end-of-his-term/Metaculusfalsenone97
641Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-emulated-before-2200/Metaculustrue50%62
642When will the first person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or uploaded?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3331/when-will-the-first-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-uploaded/Metaculusfalsenone96
643Will James Bedford be revived or emulated before 2200?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3332/will-james-bedford-be-revived-or-emulated-before-2200/Metaculustrue5%66
644When will the number of people in cryopreservation preserved before 2019 fall to less than 50% of the current value?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3333/when-will-the-number-of-people-in-cryopreservation-preserved-before-2019-fall-to-less-than-50-of-the-current-value/Metaculusfalsenone59
645When will a major U.S. supermarket sell “no-kill eggs” in at least 25 states?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3335/when-will-a-major-us-supermarket-sell-no-kill-eggs-in-at-least-25-states/Metaculusfalsenone78
646What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/Metaculusfalsenone186
647When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3338/when-will-hong-kong-stop-being-a-special-administrative-region-of-china/Metaculusfalsenone185
648If Labour wins the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3340/if-labour-wins-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/Metaculusfalsenone11
649If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3341/if-conservatives-win-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/Metaculusfalsenone161
650How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/Metaculusfalsenone127
651What will be the exponent of the fastest known polynomial-time matrix multiplication algorithm in 2029?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3343/what-will-be-the-exponent-of-the-fastest-known-polynomial-time-matrix-multiplication-algorithm-in-2029/Metaculusfalsenone107
652What the percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3344/what-the-percentage-of-egg-laying-hens-will-be-cage-free-in-the-us-in-june-2025/Metaculusfalsenone120
653Will Guinea Worm be eradicated by the end of 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3351/will-guinea-worm-be-eradicated-by-the-end-of-2030/Metaculustrue60%57
654When will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of Polio?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3353/when-will-the-who-certify-the-worldwide-eradication-of-polio/Metaculusfalsenone94
655What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3357/what-will-the-mean-of-the-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-of-the-all-500-supercomputers-in-the-top500-be-in-the-three-year-period-ending-in-november-2023/Metaculusfalsenone110
656Will there be a vegetarian U.S. president by the end of 2036?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3359/will-there-be-a-vegetarian-us-president-by-the-end-of-2036/Metaculustrue14.000000000000002%207
657Will ≥8% of U.S. adults self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before 2036?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3360/will-8-of-us-adults-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-before-2036/Metaculustrue79%220
658Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3361/will-the-mean-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-in-the-top500-decline-each-3-year-period-from-2025-to-2034/Metaculustrue49%38
659Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3364/will-metaculus-or-a-licensed-derivative-be-operated-as-a-public-site-by-a-publicly-traded-company-by-2030/Metaculustrue16%57
660What will SpaceX be worth by 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/Metaculusfalsenone370
661By the end of 2029, will the European Union require commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3371/by-the-end-of-2029-will-the-european-union-require-commercially-farmed-fish-to-be-stunned-before-being-slaughtered/Metaculustrue25%71
662How many countries will be awarded a B or better for farm animal welfare protection by to the Animal Protection Index by end of 2022?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3373/how-many-countries-will-be-awarded-a-b-or-better-for-farm-animal-welfare-protection-by-to-the-animal-protection-index-by-end-of-2022/Metaculusfalsenone23
663Will the either the USA or China improve on their score on an the Animal Protection Index indicator for recognition of animal sentience, by the end 2022?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3374/will-the-either-the-usa-or-china-improve-on-their-score-on-an-the-animal-protection-index-indicator-for-recognition-of-animal-sentience-by-the-end-2022/Metaculustrue34%28
664When will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue from edible insect product sales alone, in a single year?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3375/when-will-a-company-in-any-country-generate-50m-revenue-from-edible-insect-product-sales-alone-in-a-single-year/Metaculusfalsenone84
665When will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3380/when-will-at-least-750-companies-pledge-to-maintain-a-supply-chain-consistent-with-the-current-basic-global-animal-partnership-standards-for-broiler-chickens-by-end-of-2030/Metaculusfalsenone89
666When will 5,000 companies worldwide pledge to remove cages from their egg supply chains?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3381/when-will-5000-companies-worldwide-pledge-to-remove-cages-from-their-egg-supply-chains/Metaculusfalsenone74
667What will the earliest preservation date of any resuscitated cryonics patient be?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/Metaculusfalsenone86
668What will the largest number of digits of π to have been computed be, by the end of 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3384/what-will-the-largest-number-of-digits-of-%25CF%2580-to-have-been-computed-be-by-the-end-of-2025/Metaculusfalsenone171
669Will humanity maintain a continuous off-Earth presence until 2050?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3385/will-humanity-maintain-a-continuous-off-earth-presence-until-2050/Metaculustrue75%219
670Will a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3386/will-a-us-consumer-be-unable-to-purchase-a-cavendish-banana-at-a-major-us-grocery-chain-on-2029-12-31/Metaculustrue24%69
671What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegan diet in 2028?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3388/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegan-diet-in-2028/Metaculusfalsenone213
672What percentage of fish produced worldwide will be stunned prior to slaughter, in the first year in which credible estimates are published in the five year period starting in 2027https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3389/what-percentage-of-fish-produced-worldwide-will-be-stunned-prior-to-slaughter-in-the-first-year-in-which-credible-estimates-are-published-in-the-five-year-period-starting-in-2027/Metaculusfalsenone43
673Will DNA testing vindicate Jeanne Calment as the oldest recorded person in history?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3393/will-dna-testing-vindicate-jeanne-calment-as-the-oldest-recorded-person-in-history/Metaculustrue40%145
674Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater reduction in the national rate of obesity for 3 consecutive years before 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/large-obesity-drop-in-oecd-country-by-2030/Metaculustrue15%166
675When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3399/when-will-the-last-metaculus-question-resolution-occur/Metaculusfalsenone94
676Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3409/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2020-to-2023-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/Metaculustrue11%87
677Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3410/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2024-to-2027-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/Metaculustrue8%79
678How many millions of pigs will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3414/how-many-millions-of-pigs-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030/Metaculusfalsenone92
679Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/Metaculustrue10%418
680Will the next President of the United States be impeached?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/will-the-next-president-of-the-united-states-be-impeached/Metaculustrue9%208
681In the year 2028, how many tonnes of insect protein will be used as animal feed for livestock, poultry and fish in Europe?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3421/in-the-year-2028-how-many-tonnes-of-insect-protein-will-be-used-as-animal-feed-for-livestock-poultry-and-fish-in-europe/Metaculusfalsenone60
682On December 1st, 2023 how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3422/on-december-1st-2023-how-many-companies-worldwide-will-pledge-uphold-gap-standards-for-broiler-chickens-raised-for-meat/Metaculusfalsenone121
683Will 100 gigagrams of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3429/will-100-gigagrams-of-sulphur-be-injected-into-the-atmosphere-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/Metaculustrue5%73
684Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3431/will-the-dai-stablecoin-maintain-a-value-of-roughly-1-until-july-2023/Metaculustrue60%102
685Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3433/will-an-ocean-be-fertilised-with-at-least-50-tonnes-of-iron-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/Metaculustrue21%99
686Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/Metaculustrue55.00000000000001%284
687Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3445/will-kim-jong-un-still-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-north-korea-on-1-january-2022/Metaculustrue90%1208
688When will two or more supermarkets sell products made of ≥20% clean fish in their physical retail stores in at least 25 U.S. states?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3447/when-will-two-or-more-supermarkets-sell-products-made-of-20-clean-fish-in-their-physical-retail-stores-in-at-least-25-us-states/Metaculusfalsenone81
689How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3452/how-much-forest-coverage-loss-will-occur-in-brazil-over-the-three-year-period-starting-from-2020/Metaculusfalsenone147
690What is the largest amount of iron that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3457/what-is-the-largest-amount-of-iron-that-will-be-used-to-fertilise-an-ocean-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2026/Metaculusfalsenone70
691Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3458/will-there-be-a-culturally-significant-development-in-aging-research-by-2030/Metaculustrue68%126
692Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3460/will-there-be-at-least-200-companies-developing-technologies-to-defeat-aging-by-2025/Metaculustrue88%125
693At what point will at least ten technologies listed on "The Rejuvenation Roadmap" be released to the public?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3461/at-what-point-will-at-least-ten-technologies-listed-on-the-rejuvenation-roadmap-be-released-to-the-public/Metaculusfalsenone72
694Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3469/will-the-united-states-institute-a-military-draft-by-2025/Metaculustrue2%133
695When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3474/when-will-queen-elizabeth-ii-cease-to-be-queen-of-the-united-kingdom/Metaculusfalsenone306
696If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3477/if-human-level-artificial-intelligence-is-developed-will-world-gdp-grow-by-at-least-300-in-any-of-the-subsequent-15-years/Metaculustrue77%104
697How many patients will be in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3478/how-many-patients-will-be-in-cryonic-suspension-at-the-cryonics-institute-in-2030/Metaculusfalsenone90
698When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/Metaculusfalsenone407
699Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3481/will-no-crispr-edited-babies-be-born-in-the-year-2020/Metaculustrue91%294
700Will EQRx get at least one drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3507/will-eqrx-get-at-least-one-drug-approved-by-the-fda-before-the-end-of-2030/Metaculustrue40%46
701When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3508/when-will-trikafta-become-available-for-cystic-fibrosis-patients-on-the-nhs-england/Metaculusfalsenone64
702When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/Metaculusfalsenone143
703Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/Metaculustrue8%157
704When will we be able to predict at least 10% of variance in Big Five agreeableness based on genetic information alone?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3518/when-will-we-be-able-to-predict-at-least-10-of-variance-in-big-five-agreeableness-based-on-genetic-information-alone/Metaculusfalsenone39
705One Million Martian Residents by 2075?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/Metaculustrue2%295
706What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3520/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2020-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/Metaculusfalsenone121
707What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3521/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/Metaculusfalsenone120
708When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3522/when-will-the-doomsday-clock-reach-midnight/Metaculusfalsenone94
709Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3528/will-a-geoengineering-act-of-congress-become-us-federal-law-by-the-end-of-2024/Metaculustrue10%38
710Will the star Betelgeuse be observed to go supernova before 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/Metaculustrue1%81
711How many geoengineering international treaties will be listed on the World Legal Information Institute's database at the end of 2024?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3535/how-many-geoengineering-international-treaties-will-be-listed-on-the-world-legal-information-institutes-database-at-the-end-of-2024/Metaculusfalsenone77
712How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/Metaculusfalsenone120
713What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3581/what-will-the-global-weighted-average-levelized-cost-of-energy-of-onshore-wind-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/Metaculusfalsenone105
714What will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide, over the 2020 to 2022 period?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3582/what-will-the-average-growth-rate-be-of-total-renewable-energy-produced-worldwide-over-the-2020-to-2022-period/Metaculusfalsenone130
715Will Stacey Abrams be elected president in or before the 2040 election?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3588/will-stacey-abrams-be-elected-president-in-or-before-the-2040-election/Metaculustrue2%118
716When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/Metaculusfalsenone52
717When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3592/ev-battery-storage-costs/Metaculusfalsenone70
718Will renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3593/will-renewable-energy-contribute-2500-or-less-to-global-electricity-production-in-the-calendar-year-2030/Metaculustrue11%99
719Will Iowa host another "first in the nation" Democratic caucus by the end of 2028?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3600/will-iowa-host-another-first-in-the-nation-democratic-caucus-by-the-end-of-2028/Metaculustrue65%95
720Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/Metaculustrue15%126
721Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3606/will-a-wealth-tax-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/Metaculustrue10%129
722Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/Metaculustrue90%71
723Will a new amendment to the US Constitution be ratified by 2050?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3616/will-a-new-amendment-to-the-us-constitution-be-ratified-by-2050/Metaculustrue60%233
724Will the US supreme court change size by 2050?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3617/will-the-us-supreme-court-change-size-by-2050/Metaculustrue46%195
725When will the United States admit a new state?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3618/when-will-the-united-states-admit-a-new-state/Metaculusfalsenone154
726How many nations will there be in the United Nations by 2050?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3619/how-many-nations-will-there-be-in-the-united-nations-by-2050/Metaculusfalsenone58
727Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3620/will-china-recognize-the-sovereignty-of-taiwan-by-2050/Metaculustrue15%220
728Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3621/will-a-third-party-win-a-senate-election-in-the-united-states-by-2050/Metaculustrue55.00000000000001%84
729What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3622/what-will-the-harvard-admit-rate-be-for-the-undergraduate-class-of-2029/Metaculusfalsenone215
730When will the English Wikipedia have 10 million articles?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3623/when-will-the-english-wikipedia-have-10-million-articles/Metaculusfalsenone87
731What will the world real GDP growth rate be in 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3626/what-will-the-world-real-gdp-growth-rate-be-in-2030/Metaculusfalsenone111
732Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3629/will-the-national-popular-vote-interstate-compact-reach-majority-in-the-electoral-college-before-2030/Metaculustrue26%148
733Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/Metaculustrue87%259
734Longbets series: By 2030, will commercial passengers routinely fly in pilotless planes?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3645/longbets-series-by-2030-will-commercial-passengers-routinely-fly-in-pilotless-planes/Metaculustrue10%74
735Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3647/longbets-series-by-2025-will-the-scientific-evidence-of-a-large-bi-pedal-great-ape-be-sufficient-to-convince-at-least-50-of-primatologists-that-a-yetibigfoot-like-creature-exists/Metaculustrue1%89
736Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/Metaculustrue35%295
737How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3652/how-much-wind-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/Metaculusfalsenone168
738How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/Metaculusfalsenone147
739Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/Metaculustrue86%230
740If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/Metaculustrue61%64
741When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3658/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-us-passenger-car-fleet/Metaculusfalsenone112
742Are we on path for IPCC's 'middle-of-the-road' scenario for the deployment of renewables?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3665/are-we-on-path-for-ipccs-middle-of-the-road-scenario-for-the-deployment-of-renewables/Metaculustrue71%45
743Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3671/will-it-turn-out-that-bloomberg-manipulated-2020-election-prediction-markets/Metaculustrue1%159
744How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally, in the calendar year 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3678/how-much-greenhouse-gas-will-be-emitted-globally-in-the-calendar-year-2030-in-gigatonnes-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-equivalent/Metaculusfalsenone105
745Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei/Metaculustrue13%2352
746Before the end of 2024 will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a laboratory?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3682/before-the-end-of-2024-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-covid-19-more-likely-than-not-originated-from-a-laboratory/Metaculustrue15%414
747Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3683/will-an-oracle-superintelligence-be-developed-before-a-general-superintelligence/Metaculustrue40%68
748When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3684/when-will-a-quantum-computer-running-shors-algorithm-or-a-similar-one-be-used-to-factor-one-of-the-rsa-numbers-for-the-first-time/Metaculusfalsenone89
749When will an AI achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/Metaculusfalsenone72
750What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3701/what-will-the-maximum-increase-in-global-annual-mean-surface-air-temperature-be-relative-to-the-1951-1980-base-period-in-the-2020-to-2023-period/Metaculusfalsenone112
751What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3708/what-will-the-lower-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/Metaculusfalsenone66
752Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/Metaculustrue55.00000000000001%368
753How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of Mainland China on April the 27th?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3718/how-many-covid-2019-cases-will-be-confirmed-in-the-location-with-the-most-cases-outside-of-mainland-china-on-april-the-27th/Metaculusfalsenone15
754When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-private-fusion-company-first-report-a-yearly-profit/Metaculusfalsenone29
755When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/Metaculusfalsenone43
756When will space mining be profitable?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3728/when-will-space-mining-be-profitable/Metaculusfalsenone76
757When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/Metaculusfalsenone155
758How many communist states will there be in 2050?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3730/how-many-communist-states-will-there-be-in-2050/Metaculusfalsenone137
759Will bitcoins thought to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto be spent by 2075-04-05?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3733/will-bitcoins-thought-to-belong-to-satoshi-nakamoto-be-spent-by-2075-04-05/Metaculustrue32%101
760Will it turn out that the Keto diet is both safe and has health benefits for some identified and significant population of people?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3739/will-it-turn-out-that-the-keto-diet-is-both-safe-and-has-health-benefits-for-some-identified-and-significant-population-of-people/Metaculustrue52%101
761Will the global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be in line with the pathway to limit warming to 2.0°C by mid-century, over the 2024 to 2027 period?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3742/will-the-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-be-in-line-with-the-pathway-to-limit-warming-to-20c-by-mid-century-over-the-2024-to-2027-period/Metaculustrue34%54
762When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3743/when-will-the-global-annual-mean-surface-air-temperature-moving-average-first-exceed-13c-relative-to-the-1951-1980-base-period/Metaculusfalsenone55
763Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3749/will-the-key-to-any-pre-2020-wikileaks-insurance-file-be-publicly-available-by-2030/Metaculustrue27%70
764When will the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time record high close after the Coronavirus Crash of February 2020?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3764/when-will-the-dow-jones-industrial-average-set-a-new-all-time-record-high-close-after-the-coronavirus-crash-of-february-2020/Metaculusfalsenone766
765How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3768/how-many-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-1st-quarter-of-2021/Metaculusfalsenone598
766When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/Metaculusfalsenone138
767Will any sovereign government issue a formal apology for their treatment of farm animals by 2200?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3772/will-any-sovereign-government-issue-a-formal-apology-for-their-treatment-of-farm-animals-by-2200/Metaculustrue85%100
768Will reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3777/will-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-be-a-mainstream-moral-issue-in-america-before-2200/Metaculustrue61%71
769Will a democratic nation whose economy transitions from capitalist to market socialist sustain adequate economic growth?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3778/will-a-democratic-nation-whose-economy-transitions-from-capitalist-to-market-socialist-sustain-adequate-economic-growth/Metaculustrue45%47
770What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3786/what-will-be-the-lowest-closing-value-for-the-dow-jones-industrial-average-before-it-reaches-a-new-all-time-record-high-close/Metaculusfalsenone567
771Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/Metaculustrue35%83
772If Bernie Sanders becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in the US in 2024?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3805/if-bernie-sanders-becomes-president-what-will-be-the-yearly-co2-emissions-per-capita-in-the-us-in-2024/Metaculusfalsenone55
773If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in the US in 2024?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3806/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-be-the-yearly-co2-emissions-per-capita-in-the-us-in-2024/Metaculusfalsenone150
774Will Valve release a game before 2030 with 3 in the Title?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3812/will-valve-release-a-game-before-2030-with-3-in-the-title/Metaculustrue65%117
775When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/Metaculusfalsenone222
776Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/Metaculustrue40%697
777Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/Metaculustrue6%282
778When will the next Qatari general election be held?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3830/when-will-the-next-qatari-general-election-be-held/Metaculusfalsenone50
779What will North Korea's merchandise trade as a % of GDP be in 2045 per the most recent World Bank data?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3833/what-will-north-koreas-merchandise-trade-as-a--of-gdp-be-in-2045-per-the-most-recent-world-bank-data/Metaculusfalsenone50
780Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/Metaculustrue12%126
781When will Nintendo release a console capable of 4K output?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3840/when-will-nintendo-release-a-console-capable-of-4k-output/Metaculusfalsenone64
782Will a reliable poll of physicists reveal that a majority of those polled accept the many-worlds interpretation by 2050?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3842/will-a-reliable-poll-of-physicists-reveal-that-a-majority-of-those-polled-accept-the-many-worlds-interpretation-by-2050/Metaculustrue30%104
783Will the USD still reign supreme by 2050?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3858/will-the-usd-still-reign-supreme-by-2050/Metaculustrue39%127
784Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3864/out-of-the-25-largest-us-companies-by-revenue-how-many-will-file-for-bankruptcy-over-the-next-four-years/Metaculusfalsenone197
785When will a currently unknown social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3866/when-will-a-currently-unknown-social-media-app-reach-one-billion-downloads-worldwide/Metaculusfalsenone73
786If there is a WW3, what longitude will it start in?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3867/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-longitude-will-it-start-in/Metaculusfalsenone85
787If there is a WW3, what latitude will it start in?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3868/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-latitude-will-it-start-in/Metaculusfalsenone52
788Will there turn out to be widespread fossils of algae and lichens on Mars?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3870/will-there-turn-out-to-be-widespread-fossils-of-algae-and-lichens-on-mars/Metaculustrue2%169
789When will the United Kingdom apply to rejoin the EU?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3877/when-will-the-united-kingdom-apply-to-rejoin-the-eu/Metaculusfalsenone83
790When will humanity use more than one millionth of the sun's energy output?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3882/when-will-humanity-use-more-than-one-millionth-of-the-suns-energy-output/Metaculusfalsenone95
791How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3883/how-many-people-will-be-born-in-the-united-states-in-the-year-2021/Metaculusfalsenone255
792When will China legalise same-sex marriage?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3887/when-will-china-legalise-same-sex-marriage/Metaculusfalsenone61
793When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3913/when-will-a-vaccine-for-hiv-be-administered-to-10-million-people/Metaculusfalsenone45
794What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/Metaculusfalsenone501
795What will the peak population of Antarctica be by 2075?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3999/what-will-the-peak-population-of-antarctica-be-by-2075/Metaculusfalsenone93
796Will the next US recession turn into a depression?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4013/will-the-next-us-recession-turn-into-a-depression/Metaculustrue7.000000000000001%336
797When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4017/when-will-the-us-unemployment-rate-fall-to-4-or-lower-for-the-first-time-since-the-covid-19-crisis-of-2020/Metaculusfalsenone178
798What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/Metaculusfalsenone364
799What will inflation be in the US in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/Metaculusfalsenone137
800By 2030, will C. elegans be uploaded to the satisfaction of top computational neuroscientists?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4034/by-2030-will-c-elegans-be-uploaded-to-the-satisfaction-of-top-computational-neuroscientists/Metaculustrue36%131
801Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/Metaculustrue2%112
802Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4037/will-a-sitting-us-president-not-seek-reelection-before-the-2080-election/Metaculustrue85%189
803When will OpenAI unveil their secret AI project?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4043/when-will-openai-unveil-their-secret-ai-project/Metaculusfalsenone285
804How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4048/how-many-cents-will-it-cost-a-typical-consumer-in-the-united-states-to-store-10-gb-of-data-on-january-1st-2025/Metaculusfalsenone111
805What will the maximum world real GDP growth in percentage points be for a single year in the 21st century?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4050/what-will-the-maximum-world-real-gdp-growth-in-percentage-points-be-for-a-single-year-in-the-21st-century/Metaculusfalsenone64
806Will Alcor offer the use of a fixative during cryopreservation procedures before 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4051/will-alcor-offer-the-use-of-a-fixative-during-cryopreservation-procedures-before-2030/Metaculustrue52%52
807If cryonics is at some point offered for free, what percentage of Americans will be signed up within 10 years?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4052/if-cryonics-is-at-some-point-offered-for-free-what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-signed-up-within-10-years/Metaculusfalsenone56
808What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4053/what-will-be-the-alexa-traffic-rank-for-metaculuscom-on-january-1st-2022/Metaculusfalsenone215
809Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4055/will-the-first-agi-be-based-on-deep-learning/Metaculustrue64%80
810What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4057/what-will-be-the-sentiment-of-metaculus-users-with-regard-to-self-resolving-questions-at-the-end-of-2022/Metaculusfalsenone78
811Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4061/will-any-major-ai-company-commit-to-an-ai-windfall-clause-by-2025/Metaculustrue33%55
812When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4066/10m-are-administered-an-efficacious-vaccine/Metaculusfalsenone1513
813What will be the relative severity of the next US depression, compared to the Great Depression?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4083/what-will-be-the-relative-severity-of-the-next-us-depression-compared-to-the-great-depression/Metaculusfalsenone138
814How many years will caloric restriction be demonstrated to add to one's natural lifespan?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4094/how-many-years-will-caloric-restriction-be-demonstrated-to-add-to-ones-natural-lifespan/Metaculusfalsenone73
815If Donald Trump is reelected president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in the US in 2024?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4101/if-donald-trump-is-reelected-president-what-will-be-the-yearly-co2-emissions-per-capita-in-the-us-in-2024/Metaculusfalsenone86
816Assuming some humans are alive, what will be the birthdate of the oldest living human on January 1st 2200?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4110/assuming-some-humans-are-alive-what-will-be-the-birthdate-of-the-oldest-living-human-on-january-1st-2200/Metaculusfalsenone69
817Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4118/will-there-be-a-positive-transition-to-a-world-with-radically-smarter-than-human-artificial-intelligence/Metaculustrue65%109
818Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/Metaculustrue2%141
819After an AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligence?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/Metaculusfalsenone136
820What will be the first year during which most deaths are from non-disease related causes and fewer than 1% of humans die?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4125/what-will-be-the-first-year-during-which-most-deaths-are-from-non-disease-related-causes-and-fewer-than-1-of-humans-die/Metaculusfalsenone34
821Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/Metaculustrue20%461
822What will be the total damage incurred by climate change in the 21st century as measured by its impact on GDP?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4159/climate-change-damage-in-the-21st-century/Metaculusfalsenone24
823When will a human chess player reach a FIDE rating of 2900?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4209/when-will-a-human-chess-player-reach-a-fide-rating-of-2900/Metaculusfalsenone60
824What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4215/what-will-be-the-real-world-gdp-on-the-year-agi-is-deployed-in-trillions-of-dollars/Metaculusfalsenone72
825Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4219/will-large-scale-solar-radiation-management-be-used-to-mitigate-the-effects-of-climate-change-in-the-21st-century/Metaculustrue40%30
826Will Stephen Wolfram or his co-authors, Jonathan Gorard and Max Piskunov, receive the Nobel prize in physics before the end of 2035?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4224/will-stephen-wolfram-or-his-co-authors-jonathan-gorard-and-max-piskunov-receive-the-nobel-prize-in-physics-before-the-end-of-2035/Metaculustrue1%166
827When will the seasonally adjusted atmospheric concentration of C02 be lower than the same time in the previous year?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4225/when-will-the-seasonally-adjusted-atmospheric-concentration-of-c02-be-lower-than-the-same-time-in-the-previous-year/Metaculusfalsenone32
828Will the number of foreign nationals in Mainland China fall between 2010 and 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4229/will-the-number-of-foreign-nationals-in-mainland-china-fall-between-2010-and-2030/Metaculustrue26%58
829How many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use by 2070?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4230/how-many-countries-will-at-least-in-some-form-decriminalize-possession-of-all-schedule-i-drugs-for-personal-use-by-2070/Metaculusfalsenone33
830What will be the mean expected lifespan gain from one year of the TRIIM-X trial, as measured by the epigenetic clock GrimAge?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4231/what-will-be-the-mean-expected-lifespan-gain-from-one-year-of-the-triim-x-trial-as-measured-by-the-epigenetic-clock-grimage/Metaculusfalsenone29
831When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/Metaculusfalsenone70
832When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/Metaculusfalsenone96
833When will there be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4249/when-will-there-be-a-vegan-cheese-indistinguishable-from-non-vegan-cheese-available-for-purchase-by-regular-consumers/Metaculusfalsenone63
834How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4264/how-many-years-after-the-silver-turing-test-is-passed-will-an-agi-system-be-developed/Metaculusfalsenone60
835How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4265/how-much-exercise-can-you-do-before-it-starts-to-take-more-time-than-it-adds-life/Metaculusfalsenone109
836Will NAD+ boosters be shown in a systematic review to increase human lifespan by >=5% by 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4290/will-nad-boosters-be-shown-in-a-systematic-review-to-increase-human-lifespan-by-5-by-2030/Metaculustrue24%36
837Which Artemis Moon Mission landing system will first land a person on the moon?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4306/which-artemis-moon-mission-landing-system-will-first-land-a-person-on-the-moon/Metaculusfalsenone55
838Longbets series: By 2040 will the percentage of college-aged U.S. citizens who are attending postsecondary educational institutions in the United States drop at least 50% from the level in 2011?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4319/longbets-series-by-2040-will-the-percentage-of-college-aged-us-citizens-who-are-attending-postsecondary-educational-institutions-in-the-united-states-drop-at-least-50-from-the-level-in-2011/Metaculustrue25%22
839How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2031?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4332/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2031/Metaculusfalsenone78
840What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4333/what-will-be-the-democracy-index-of-the-united-states-in-2040/Metaculusfalsenone49
841If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/Metaculustrue70%136
842Will the Harvard endowment be larger in 2119 than in 2019?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4349/will-the-harvard-endowment-be-larger-in-2119-than-in-2019/Metaculustrue50%28
843When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the Japanese passenger car fleet?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4360/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-japanese-passenger-car-fleet/Metaculusfalsenone32
844When will the US national debt reach $50 trillion?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4364/when-will-the-us-national-debt-reach-50-trillion/Metaculusfalsenone103
845What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4390/what-will-be-the-lowest-cost-per-kilogram-in-us-dollars-to-deliver-a-payload-to-leo-or-beyond-before-2025/Metaculusfalsenone116
846Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4409/will-one-of-the-first-agi-claim-to-be-conscious/Metaculustrue75%91
847What is the greatest number of people who, for non-medical purposes, use a newly discovered drug at any year between 2021 and 2070?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4418/what-is-the-greatest-number-of-people-who-for-non-medical-purposes-use-a-newly-discovered-drug-at-any-year-between-2021-and-2070/Metaculusfalsenone70
848By 1 January 2067, medical interventions for healthy adults will have been shown to extend average lifespan by at least 25 yearshttps://www.metaculus.com/questions/4429/by-1-january-2067-medical-interventions-for-healthy-adults-will-have-been-shown-to-extend-average-lifespan-by-at-least-25-years/Metaculustrue25%69
849If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4433/if-biden-becomes-president-will-there-be-an-expansion-of-the-keystone-pipeline-system-of-at-least-100-km-in-length-by-the-end-of-2024/Metaculustrue5%97
850When will North Korea become a democracy?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4439/when-will-north-korea-become-a-democracy/Metaculusfalsenone64
851What rank will the United States be on the inequality adjusted human development index in 2035?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4440/what-rank-will-the-united-states-be-on-the-inequality-adjusted-human-development-index-in-2035/Metaculusfalsenone19
852When will be the next "Great Power" war?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/Metaculusfalsenone110
853What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4442/what-will-be-the-gross-receipts-of-the-sens-research-foundation-in-the-2021-tax-year-as-reported-on-their-form-990/Metaculusfalsenone81
854When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/Metaculusfalsenone121
855What will be the highest value of the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) before 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4444/what-will-be-the-highest-value-of-the-us-private-sector-job-quality-index-jqi-1-before-2030/Metaculusfalsenone41
856When will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4449/when-will-global-ipv4-traffic-account-for-less-than-1-of-total-internet-traffic/Metaculusfalsenone51
857When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/Metaculusfalsenone68
858Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4456/will-the-united-states-test-a-nuclear-weapon-before-2023/Metaculustrue5%109
859If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/Metaculusfalsenone158
860When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/Metaculusfalsenone61
861What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4507/what-percentage-of-top-colleges-in-the-united-states-will-not-require-the-sat-or-act-for-freshman-admittance-by-2030/Metaculusfalsenone38
862How long would humanity take to rebound from a global catastrophe?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/how-long-would-humanity-take-to-rebound-from-a-global-catastrophe/Metaculusfalsenone132
863How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4518/how-many-billions-of-parameters-will-the-largest-machine-learning-model-trained-before-2030-have/Metaculusfalsenone31
864When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operations?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4519/when-will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-begin-operations/Metaculusfalsenone58
865Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4524/will-the-us-conduct-a-nuclear-test-explosion-before-2030/Metaculustrue25%44
866Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/Metaculustrue25%106
867Will there be fewer Kea parrots in 2030 than in 2020?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4544/will-there-be-fewer-kea-parrots-in-2030-than-in-2020/Metaculustrue62%34
868Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4549/will-george-church-receive-a-nobel-prize-in-any-category-before-the-end-of-2035/Metaculustrue10%29
869When will a technology replace screens?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4577/when-will-a-technology-replace-screens/Metaculusfalsenone93
870What % of money held in all US DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4584/what--of-money-held-in-all-us-dafs-will-be-expropriated-by-2100/Metaculusfalsenone23
871What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4585/what-annual-real-return-will-the-global-stock-market-realize-2022-2031/Metaculusfalsenone98
872If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended by 2024?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4586/if-biden-becomes-president-will-the-sentencing-disparity-between-crack-and-powder-cocaine-be-ended-by-2024/Metaculustrue60%35
873When will Croatia adopt the euro?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4587/when-will-croatia-adopt-the-euro/Metaculusfalsenone77
874When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/Metaculusfalsenone123
875When will we have a new Pope?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4606/when-will-we-have-a-new-pope/Metaculusfalsenone88
876In 2024, what percentage of surveyed Americans will report say that conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are "very strong"?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4608/in-2024-what-percentage-of-surveyed-americans-will-report-say-that-conflicts-between-democrats-and-republicans-are-very-strong/Metaculusfalsenone33
877When will directly removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere be economically feasible?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4614/when-will-directly-removing-carbon-dioxide-from-the-atmosphere-be-economically-feasible/Metaculusfalsenone42
878What annual real return will the S&P 500 realize 2022-2031?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4615/what-annual-real-return-will-the-sp-500-realize-2022-2031/Metaculusfalsenone122
879Will US life expectancy at birth for both sexes fall below 75 years before 2040?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4616/will-us-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-fall-below-75-years-before-2040/Metaculustrue13%97
880Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4628/will-one-of-givewells-2019-top-charities-be-estimated-as-the-most-cost-effective-charity-in-2031/Metaculustrue30%40
881Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4630/will-metaculus-inc-host-a-prediction-market-prior-to-2024/Metaculustrue30%50
882Will oil consumption over the 2020-2025 period be lower than in 2019?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4633/oil-consumption-rebounds-no-sooner-than-2026/Metaculustrue30%145
883If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644/if-labour-wins-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/Metaculusfalsenone38
884If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645/if-conservatives-win-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/Metaculusfalsenone40
885What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4646/what-will-total-enrollment-for-recent-us-high-school-graduates-be-in-us-colleges-in-2021/Metaculusfalsenone100
886When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4665/when-will-ninja-first-lose-the-top-spot-as-the-most-followed-account-on-twitch/Metaculusfalsenone149
887Will the XENON1T experiment soon report a detection of dark matter or other new physics?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4670/will-the-xenon1t-experiment-soon-report-a-detection-of-dark-matter-or-other-new-physics/Metaculustrue30%40
888When will the Chinese state have collected 1 billion unique genomes from their population?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4676/when-will-the-chinese-state-have-collected-1-billion-unique-genomes-from-their-population/Metaculusfalsenone23
889In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4677/in-2031-will-at-least-90-of-open-philanthropy-project-grant-money-be-directed-using-effective-altruist-principles/Metaculustrue70%25
890Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4678/will-at-least-one-us-state-secede-from-the-union-before-31-december-2030/Metaculustrue3%90
891When will the population size of India surpass the population size of China?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4680/when-will-the-population-size-of-india-surpass-the-population-size-of-china/Metaculusfalsenone186
892What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Donald Trump is reelected president?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4688/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-donald-trump-is-reelected-president/Metaculusfalsenone88
893When will The Boring Company tunnel faster than a snail?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4692/when-will-the-boring-company-tunnel-faster-than-a-snail/Metaculusfalsenone60
894What will Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of US$?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4694/what-will-gross-world-product-be-in-2047-in-trillions-of-us/Metaculusfalsenone110
895What will be the total expenditures of the United Nations System in 2050?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4696/what-will-be-the-total-expenditures-of-the-united-nations-system-in-2050/Metaculusfalsenone12
896What percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric by 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4701/what-percentage-of-vehicles-on-us-roads-will-be-fully-electric-by-2030/Metaculusfalsenone47
897When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4719/when-will-us-domestic-passenger-air-travel-return-to-80-of-pre-covid-19-volumes/Metaculusfalsenone70
898When will US auto manufacturing recover to 80% of pre-COVID-19 production levels?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4721/when-will-us-auto-manufacturing-recover-to-80-of-pre-covid-19-production-levels/Metaculusfalsenone52
899Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4736/will-the-nyt-end-up-publishing-any-articles-mentioning-ssc-or-sa-in-the-next-year/Metaculustrue59%520
900When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4737/when-will-the-covid-19-epidemic-subside-in-russia/Metaculusfalsenone224
901Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/Metaculustrue44%281
902Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4742/will-mount-rushmore-be-intentionally-destroyed-or-modified-before-2025/Metaculustrue5%134
903Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/Metaculustrue60%20
904Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4763/will-there-be-a-g4-ea-h1n1-flu-virus-pandemic-before-2025/Metaculustrue2%60
905Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/Metaculustrue1%1167
906Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4774/will-scott-morrison-be-prime-minister-of-australia-on-1-july-2021/Metaculustrue92%107
907Will Richard Spencer receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4775/will-richard-spencer-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/Metaculustrue1%177
908Will Charles Murray receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4776/will-charles-murray-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/Metaculustrue1%136
909Will more than two nuclear weapons in total have been detonated as an act of war by 2050?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/will-more-than-two-nuclear-weapons-in-total-have-been-detonated-as-an-act-of-war-by-2050/Metaculustrue20%84
910While cryopreservation using fixatives is available, how many times more likely will someone be to be revived by 2200 if they are cryopreserved using fixatives than without?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4780/while-cryopreservation-using-fixatives-is-available-how-many-times-more-likely-will-someone-be-to-be-revived-by-2200-if-they-are-cryopreserved-using-fixatives-than-without/Metaculusfalsenone23
911If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4783/if-the-nyt-publishes-an-article-mentioning-slate-star-codex-or-scott-alexander-by-july-2021-will-it-include-his-full-name/Metaculustrue86%368
912Will James Lindsay receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4784/will-james-lindsay-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/Metaculustrue1%123
913What percentage of people cryopreserved between 2020 and 2050 will be revived by 2200?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4785/what-percentage-of-people-cryopreserved-between-2020-and-2050-will-be-revived-by-2200/Metaculusfalsenone35
914Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/Metaculustrue70%73
915When will a universal flu vaccine be available?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4791/when-will-a-universal-flu-vaccine-be-available/Metaculusfalsenone63
916What will the mass of the next fundamental particle to be discovered be, in eV?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4794/what-will-the-mass-of-the-next-fundamental-particle-to-be-discovered-be-in-ev/Metaculusfalsenone36
917How many states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4796/states-with-legal-psilocybin-by-2045/Metaculusfalsenone27
918What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4798/what-will-teslas-market-capitalization-be-on-1-january-2030/Metaculusfalsenone58
919When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4799/when-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-hold-the-office-of-president-of-russia/Metaculusfalsenone100
920How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/Metaculusfalsenone102
921As of July 1st, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4815/as-of-july-1st-2022-when-will-top-forecasters-expect-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-to-be-developed-and-demonstrated/Metaculusfalsenone110
922Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4816/will-derek-chauvin-be-acquitted-of-all-murder-charges/Metaculustrue71%476
923Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4821/will-ea-global-london-2021-be-cancelled-rescheduled-or-moved-online/Metaculustrue74%121
924Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4826/will-any-wirecard-executive-receive-a-custodial-sentence-for-their-involvement-in-the-wirecard-collapse/Metaculustrue65%33
925What will the global fertility rate be in 2050?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/Metaculusfalsenone25
926When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/Metaculusfalsenone213
927When will the VIX index fall below 20?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4833/when-will-the-vix-index-fall-below-20/Metaculusfalsenone216
928When will the VIX index climb above 50?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4834/when-will-the-vix-index-climb-above-50/Metaculusfalsenone83
929Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4836/will-chinas-tianwen-1-rover-successfully-land-on-mars/Metaculustrue70%95
930When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4841/when-will-blue-origin-send-a-paying-customer-to-space/Metaculusfalsenone77
931When will virtual reality headset sales exceed 10 million units per year?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4845/when-will-virtual-reality-headset-sales-exceed-10-million-units-per-year/Metaculusfalsenone35
932When will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4846/when-will-evidence-of-successful-synthesis-of-the-element-ununennium-be-published/Metaculusfalsenone31
933In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4848/in-the-2024-us-presidential-election-how-many-states-will-use-plurality-voting-methods-to-choose-their-electors/Metaculusfalsenone41
934Will a Science Fiction work originally written and published in Spanish by 2029 win any of the great international awards that recognize great authors in this genre?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4849/will-a-science-fiction-work-originally-written-and-published-in-spanish-by-2029-win-any-of-the-great-international-awards-that-recognize-great-authors-in-this-genre/Metaculustrue27%54
935When (if ever) will a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4850/when-if-ever-will-a-manhattanapollo-project-toward-agi-be-launched/Metaculusfalsenone116
936What will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day poverty be in 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4851/what-will-the-percentage-of-the-world-population-in-190-a-day-poverty-be-in-2030/Metaculusfalsenone74
937How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/Metaculusfalsenone326
938What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Climeworks in 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/Metaculusfalsenone55
939What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Project Vesta in 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/Metaculusfalsenone45
940What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/Metaculusfalsenone59
941What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by Charm Industrial in 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/Metaculusfalsenone17
942Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/Metaculustrue33%36
943Will Project Vesta still exist in 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4863/will-project-vesta-still-exist-in-2030/Metaculustrue22%52
944Will CarbonCure still exist in 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4864/will-carboncure-still-exist-in-2030/Metaculustrue33%33
945Will Charm Industrial still exist in 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4865/will-charm-industrial-still-exist-in-2030/Metaculustrue25%25
946Will photonic tensor cores be ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4872/will-photonic-tensor-cores-be-ubiquitous-in-machine-learning-by-2030/Metaculustrue25%53
947Will OpenAI reach its profit cap for the first round of investors by 2035?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4873/will-openai-reach-its-profit-cap-for-the-first-round-of-investors-by-2035/Metaculustrue16%53
948Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4876/will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-trained-to-do-external-information-retrieval-exist-before-2023/Metaculustrue51%47
949When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/Metaculusfalsenone100
950When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4881/when-will-rthemotte-be-banned-from-reddit/Metaculusfalsenone88
951Will any of these Reddit alternatives be more popular than Reddit by 2026?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4882/will-any-of-these-reddit-alternatives-be-more-popular-than-reddit-by-2026/Metaculustrue6%53
952Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4883/will-metaculus-anticipate-the-biggest-unforeseen-trend-of-the-2020s/Metaculustrue40%31
953Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4892/will-transformer-derived-architectures-still-be-state-of-the-art-for-language-modeling-in-2025/Metaculustrue66%32
954Longbets series: Will slaughterhouses be banned in the United Kingdom by 2050.https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4894/longbets-series-will-slaughterhouses-be-banned-in-the-united-kingdom-by-2050/Metaculustrue20%34
955How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4895/how-many-laws-will-be-enacted-during-the-117th-united-states-congress/Metaculusfalsenone67
956What will China's human development index (HDI) score be in 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4905/what-will-chinas-human-development-index-hdi-score-be-in-2030/Metaculusfalsenone41
957Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/Metaculustrue5%557
958What will the US police-to-prison spending ratio be in 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4907/what-will-the-us-police-to-prison-spending-ratio-be-in-2030/Metaculusfalsenone52
959When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4911/when-will-an-individual-spacex-falcon-9-core-stage-launch-and-return-to-earth-for-the-tenth-time/Metaculusfalsenone132
960How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4912/how-many-of-the-priority-paths-identified-by-80000hours-will-still-be-priority-paths-in-2030/Metaculusfalsenone22
961Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4918/alexander-lukashenko-to-remain-president-of-belarus-on-january-31st-2021/Metaculustrue99%1076
962Who will win the 'worm wars'?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4919/who-will-win-the-worm-wars/Metaculustrue73%57
963How many charities will Charity Entrepreneurship help launch in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4920/how-many-charities-will-charity-entrepreneurship-help-launch-in-2021/Metaculusfalsenone25
964When will Charity Entrepreneurship help create a new GiveWell top charity?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4921/when-will-charity-entrepreneurship-help-create-a-new-givewell-top-charity/Metaculusfalsenone68
965Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4922/will-there-be-active-warfare-between-the-united-states-and-china-by-the-end-of-2026/Metaculustrue8%137
966Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4923/will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-by-ai/Metaculustrue14.000000000000002%135
967Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints allow same-sex marriage by 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4924/will-the-church-of-jesus-christ-of-latter-day-saints-allow-same-sex-marriage-by-2030/Metaculustrue34%43
968What will SpaceX be worth in 2030? [125B-100T range]https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4927/what-will-spacex-be-worth-in-2030-125b-100t-range/Metaculusfalsenone70
969When will the Woke index in US elite media top?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4931/when-will-the-woke-index-in-us-elite-media-top/Metaculusfalsenone21
970When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/Metaculusfalsenone79
971Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4934/will-freeton-cryptocurrency-project-be-successful/Metaculustrue8%37
972Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4946/will-antifa-officially-be-labeled-a-terrorist-group-in-the-us-before-2022/Metaculustrue5%225
973[Metaculus] When will the feature to share private questions go live?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4947/metaculus-when-will-the-feature-to-share-private-questions-go-live/Metaculusfalsenone51
974What will be the best marathon time completed before 2035, in seconds, according to Guinness World Records?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4949/what-will-be-the-best-marathon-time-completed-before-2035-in-seconds-according-to-guinness-world-records/Metaculusfalsenone34
975When will traviswfisher be unseated on the Metaculus leaderboard?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4950/when-will-traviswfisher-be-unseated-on-the-metaculus-leaderboard/Metaculusfalsenone154
976How many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4951/how-many-billions-of-tons-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-will-the-united-states-emit-in-2035/Metaculusfalsenone45
977Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4952/will-lebanon-come-under-french-rule-again-before-2025/Metaculustrue1%110
978When will the first baby be born away from Earth?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4954/when-will-the-first-baby-be-born-away-from-earth/Metaculusfalsenone57
979When will One Piece end?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4963/when-will-one-piece-end/Metaculusfalsenone29
980When will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to sell and implant a brain-machine interface device into general consumers?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/Metaculusfalsenone103
981What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4967/what-will-be-the-real-median-household-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/Metaculusfalsenone51
982What will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/Metaculusfalsenone62
983Will someone report to have received a hemispherectomy for the purpose of life extension before 2100?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4969/will-someone-report-to-have-received-a-hemispherectomy-for-the-purpose-of-life-extension-before-2100/Metaculustrue16%33
984What will be the monthly average number of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4970/what-will-be-the-monthly-average-number-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/Metaculusfalsenone21
98513 month boxed mean of sunspots around the Solar 25 maximum?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4971/13-month-boxed-mean-of-sunspots-around-the-solar-25-maximum/Metaculusfalsenone20
986What will be the minimum magnetic field strength during Solar Cycle 25?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4974/what-will-be-the-minimum-magnetic-field-strength-during-solar-cycle-25/Metaculusfalsenone54
987What will be the 3-day mean geomagnetic forecast around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4975/what-will-be-the-3-day-mean-geomagnetic-forecast-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/Metaculusfalsenone34
988On what day will Solar Cycle 25’s maximum occur?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4976/on-what-day-will-solar-cycle-25s-maximum-occur/Metaculusfalsenone37
989What day will Solar Cycle 25 end?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4978/what-day-will-solar-cycle-25-end/Metaculusfalsenone37
990Will a mini-Maunder event occur beginning in Solar Cycle 25 (or 24)?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4979/will-a-mini-maunder-event-occur-beginning-in-solar-cycle-25-or-24/Metaculustrue50%17
991What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4981/what-will-be-the-5-day-moving-average-of-the-107-cm-radio-flux-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/Metaculusfalsenone44
992When will a human with no biological feet run 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4986/when-will-a-human-with-no-biological-feet-run-100-meters-in-less-than-9572-seconds/Metaculusfalsenone20
993Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4994/microwave-disruption-of-covid-19-virus-particles/Metaculustrue27%59
994If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4997/a-stock-price-rise-preceding-agi/Metaculustrue62%19
995What will Denmark rank in GDP per capita (PPP) in 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5000/what-will-denmark-rank-in-gdp-per-capita-ppp-in-2030/Metaculusfalsenone28
996How many DALYs will be caused by outdoor air pollution in 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5025/how-many-dalys-will-be-caused-by-outdoor-air-pollution-in-2030/Metaculusfalsenone45
997Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/Metaculustrue64%92
998Will a high profile criminal investigation take down a "hidden website" on the Tor Network during 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5034/will-a-high-profile-criminal-investigation-take-down-a-hidden-website-on-the-tor-network-during-2021/Metaculustrue45%83
999When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5035/when-will-spacex-starlink-internet-be-generally-available/Metaculusfalsenone176
1000Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/Metaculustrue5%49
1001What will be the largest CME during Solar Cycle 25 (in kinetic energy)?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5045/what-will-be-the-largest-cme-during-solar-cycle-25-in-kinetic-energy/Metaculusfalsenone18
1002Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5048/will-the-uk-rejoin-the-eu-before-2030/Metaculustrue3%95
1003If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/Metaculustrue8%439
1004When will the first Macs with Apple Silicon ship?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5050/when-will-the-first-macs-with-apple-silicon-ship/Metaculusfalsenone125
1005Will Tucker Carlson be the Republican Presidential nominee in 2024 US presidential election?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5062/will-tucker-carlson-be-the-republican-presidential-nominee-in-2024-us-presidential-election/Metaculustrue3%164
1006Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5105/will-stephen-bannon-be-found-guilty-of-fraud/Metaculustrue5%298
1007What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/Metaculusfalsenone20
1008Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/Metaculustrue45%156
1009If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5120/if-tested-would-the-most-powerful-quesion-answering-ai-system-as-of-2022-06-01-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-5th-graders/Metaculustrue27%37
1010When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/Metaculusfalsenone141
1011If at least one human challenge trial is run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5127/if-at-least-one-human-challenge-trial-is-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/Metaculusfalsenone137
1012If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/Metaculusfalsenone156
1013Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5138/will-the-world-series-of-poker-return-to-a-live-in-person-format-in-2021/Metaculustrue72%87
1014Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/Metaculustrue16%399
1015What will be the first year when world real GDP exceeds 130% of any prior year?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/when-will-economic-growth-accelerate/Metaculusfalsenone43
1016Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/Metaculusfalsenone68
1017Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5170/will-nord-stream-2-be-completed/Metaculustrue70%34
1018Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5173/transformers-effect-on-ai-research/Metaculustrue40%64
1019If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/Metaculustrue40%212
1020When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5178/doubling-value-company/Metaculustrue41%50
1021Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/Metaculustrue21%300
1022When will Bitcoin lose its position as market dominant cryptocurrency?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/Metaculusfalsenone49
1023When will Amazon deliver some products by drone?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5206/amazon-drone-delivery/Metaculusfalsenone54
1024When will the first human head transplant occur?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5211/first-human-head-transplant-when/Metaculusfalsenone28
1025Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5212/legacy-automaker-bankruptcy-before-2030/Metaculustrue61%86
1026Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5217/frie-gr%25C3%25B8nnes-seats-in-the-danish-parliament/Metaculustrue24%30
1027How many parameters (in billions) is needed to achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5218/scaling-to-few-shot-human-level-performance/Metaculusfalsenone91
1028Will another paper authored by Phil Rushton be retracted before 2022?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5219/rushton-paper-retracted-before-2022/Metaculustrue50%26
1029[Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/Metaculusfalsenone61
1030Average S&P 500 return in the 2020s?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5240/average-sp-500-return-in-the-2020s/Metaculusfalsenone74
1031How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5243/arab-league-normalized-relations-with-israel/Metaculusfalsenone75
1032Will AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5252/aoc-for-president/Metaculustrue11%70
1033Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/Metaculustrue40%232
1034Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/Metaculustrue2%192
1035Will the cover of the 2022 IKEA Catalogue feature a human?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5260/humans-on-the-2022-ikea-catalogue-cover/Metaculustrue62%44
1036What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5261/tax-rate-for-a-million-dollar-capital-gain/Metaculusfalsenone35
1037Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5265/cdc-to-adopt-haes-by-2035/Metaculustrue21%27
1038When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/Metaculusfalsenone59
1039How big will be the first crew sent to Mars?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/Metaculusfalsenone74
1040When will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5287/when-will-america-have-an-emigration-crisis/Metaculusfalsenone69
1041What is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5300/revival-chance-at-alcor-vs-cryonics-institute/Metaculusfalsenone28
1042What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5301/a-city-exodus/Metaculusfalsenone33
1043When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/Metaculusfalsenone95
1044When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/Metaculusfalsenone149
1045When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/Metaculusfalsenone75
1046If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5311/lesswrong-red-button-pressed-on-petrov-day/Metaculustrue53%62
1047Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5313/planet-nine-discovery-by-before-2030/Metaculustrue33%52
1048Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5316/vit-d-as-covid-best-practice/Metaculustrue25%77
1049Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/Metaculustrue44%98
1050Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5318/nih-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/Metaculustrue43%68
1051Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5319/dutch-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/Metaculustrue37%36
1052Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/Metaculustrue35%94
1053Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5344/nobel-prize-for-string-theory-before-2050/Metaculustrue23%54
1054Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5350/will-erdogan-be-re-elected-president/Metaculustrue68%71
1055How many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5351/major-wars-in-the-2020s/Metaculusfalsenone47
1056Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/Metaculustrue22%223
1057What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/Metaculusfalsenone32
1058Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5380/will-john-mcafee-go-to-prison/Metaculustrue59%37
1059When will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5405/end-of-north-sentinelese-isolation/Metaculusfalsenone19
1060Will there be a complete 4 year interval by 2050 in which world output doubles?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5406/world-output-doubles-in-4-years-by-2050/Metaculustrue30%53
1061Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5411/margaret-ferrier-resignation-by-april-2021/Metaculustrue25%193
1062Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/conservative-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/Metaculustrue50%33
1063Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/labour-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/Metaculustrue43%38
1064Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5415/nk-launches-icbm-again-before-2022/Metaculustrue73%144
1065Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1 trillion before 2027?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5423/stripe-reaches-1tr-valuation-before-2027/Metaculustrue8%56
1066When will Winifred Wagner's correspondence with Adolph Hitler be published?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5425/release-date-of-wagners-letters-with-hitler/Metaculusfalsenone18
1067Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5427/tax-on-childlessness-in-russia-before-2024/Metaculustrue20%61
1068Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before the end of its term on 31st October 2024?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5431/will-the-eu-announce-by-2024-going-cage-free/Metaculustrue36%74
1069Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5432/month-with-peak-of-covid-19-cases-in-2021/Metaculusfalsenone184
1070What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/Metaculusfalsenone135
1071How much will interest in machine translation grow in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5454/growth-in-interest-for-machine-translation/Metaculusfalsenone35
1072When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5457/date-next-scotus-vacancy-arises/Metaculusfalsenone116
1073When will be the next S&P 500 correction?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5458/next-sp-500-correction/Metaculusfalsenone66
1074Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5459/psilocybin-not-schedule-i--2036/Metaculustrue72%31
1075Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/Metaculustrue27%48
1076Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5463/mars-sample-mission-vs-starship/Metaculustrue21%34
1077How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5466/sneerclub-subscribers-by-112022/Metaculusfalsenone42
1078Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/Metaculusfalsenone17
1079Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5492/most-popular-img-classification-benchmark-22/Metaculusfalsenone18
1080When will the GDP of Mars exceed that of Earth?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5506/mars-gdp-exceeds-earths/Metaculusfalsenone71
1081Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5509/detection-of-phosphine-in-venus-atmosphere/Metaculustrue16%108
1082Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5511/amc-bankruptcy-filing-before-april-2021/Metaculustrue5%243
1083When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/Metaculusfalsenone52
1084How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/Metaculusfalsenone95
1085What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5534/labor-seats-after-next-victorian-election/Metaculusfalsenone34
1086When will Uber electrify 50% of its fleet?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/Metaculusfalsenone36
1087Will California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5538/california-zero-emission-sales-by-2035/Metaculustrue50%26
1088How many DC Fast public charging outlets/connections will be available in the United States by 2022?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5539/dc-fast-public-charging-stations-by-2022/Metaculusfalsenone56
1089Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5540/scotus-impeachment-before-2030/Metaculustrue6%65
1090Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5541/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-at-toyko/Metaculustrue73%51
1091Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5542/japan-host-games-advantage/Metaculustrue40%45
1092What percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5546/success-rate-for-national-carbon-neutrality/Metaculusfalsenone19
1093Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/Metaculustrue79%60
1094Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5554/5th-ave-apple-store-closure-during-winter/Metaculustrue38%102
1095Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/Metaculustrue50%691
1096What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5558/squad20-perfomance-2022/Metaculusfalsenone54
1097When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5559/when-will-lyft-be-80-electrified/Metaculusfalsenone31
1098What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5560/difference-in-top-ev-model-sales-2021/Metaculusfalsenone86
1099How many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5572/electric-bus-registrations-2021/Metaculusfalsenone36
1100When will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets available in California?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5573/us-state-race-in-public-charging-outlets/Metaculusfalsenone23
1101Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5574/china-to-reach-nev-14-credit-in-2021/Metaculustrue75%32
1102What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/Metaculusfalsenone38
1103Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5577/germany-to-overtake-us-in-ev-registrations/Metaculustrue60%35
1104How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/Metaculusfalsenone92
1105What will the price of neuropreservation be at Alcor in 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5585/neuropreservation-price-at-alcor-2030/Metaculusfalsenone43
1106Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5587/ai-ny-times-best-seller-before-2030/Metaculustrue40%52
1107What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/Metaculusfalsenone33
1108Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 election?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/Metaculustrue57.99999999999999%137
1109Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5635/facebook-block-links-to-bitchute-before-2023/Metaculustrue35%30
1110What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/Metaculusfalsenone75
1111What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/Metaculusfalsenone128
1112What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/Metaculusfalsenone80
1113When will the US Federal Minimum Wage be Raised?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5646/next-minimum-wage-raise/Metaculusfalsenone38
1114When will 1% of humanity's GWP be produced off-Earth?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5648/1-gwp-off-earth/Metaculusfalsenone33
1115What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5659/max-number-of-us-daily-covid-19-cases/Metaculusfalsenone155
1116What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5666/donald-trumps-net-worth-in-2024/Metaculusfalsenone92
1117When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5670/calculating-rsa-public-keys/Metaculusfalsenone45
1118When will it be possible to buy Quantum Computing via the Cloud?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5671/quantum-computing-via-the-cloud/Metaculusfalsenone32
1119Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/Metaculustrue40%49
1120What will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5679/avg-daily-supply-motor-gasoline-2025/Metaculusfalsenone22
1121By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5680/co2-emission-change-from-transport-2020-25/Metaculusfalsenone17
1122When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/Metaculusfalsenone35
1123How many new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5682/new-ev-bus-registration-2025/Metaculusfalsenone29
1124Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5683/who-will-produce-the-most-lithium-by-2030/Metaculustrue50%22
1125Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/Metaculustrue33%63
1126When will Graphcore become a publicly traded company?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5694/when-will-graphcore-ipo/Metaculusfalsenone12
1127When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/Metaculusfalsenone42
1128What will be the net percentage of people who believe it's acceptable to buy fur by 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5697/moral-acceptablity-of-buying-fur-by-2030/Metaculusfalsenone48
1129Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/Metaculustrue56.99999999999999%45
1130Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5716/longbets-oil-consumed-in-us-in-2035-vs-2015/Metaculustrue32%30
1131Will Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5717/will-trump-be-elected-potus-in-2024/Metaculustrue3%244
1132Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5721/1kt-nuke-detonated-on-earth-in-2021/Metaculustrue37%164
1133When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/Metaculusfalsenone274
1134What will the community median's Brier score (at closing time) be when the Metaculus has 300 predictors per question?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5729/m-community-brier-when-300-predictors-per-q/Metaculusfalsenone47
1135Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5730/biden-net-approval-5-through-20-july-2021/Metaculustrue65%211
1136What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/Metaculusfalsenone125
1137By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5747/will-realdonaldtrump-or-potus-be-suspended/Metaculustrue54%141
1138Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/Metaculustrue37%259
1139What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/Metaculusfalsenone60
1140Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/Metaculusfalsenone152
1141When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/Metaculusfalsenone57
1142Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5766/yang-to-run-for-nyc-mayor-in-2021/Metaculustrue98%360
1143When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/Metaculusfalsenone122
1144Will any executives be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5768/prison-for-corporate-crooks/Metaculustrue71%22
1145When will GTA VI be released in the US?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5772/when-will-gta-vi-be-released-in-the-us/Metaculusfalsenone50
1146When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/Metaculusfalsenone514
1147What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5780/real-us-house-prices-in-2021/Metaculusfalsenone23
1148When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/Metaculusfalsenone21
1149What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for January 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/Metaculusfalsenone111
1150What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/Metaculusfalsenone83
1151What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in February 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5794/initial-jobless-claims-in-february-2021/Metaculusfalsenone87
1152What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/Metaculusfalsenone60
1153What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/Metaculusfalsenone56
1154How effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZenca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5800/astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-effectiveness/Metaculusfalsenone138
1155What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for February 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/Metaculusfalsenone64
1156How large will Monaco be in 2035?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5802/how-large-will-monaco-be-in-2035/Metaculusfalsenone46
1157When will the first clone of a prominent historical figure be born?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5804/first-clone-of-a-prominent-historical-figure/Metaculusfalsenone15
1158When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5806/sars-cov-2-vaccine-widely-available-in-the-us/Metaculusfalsenone298
1159Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5808/signatory-to-ban-on-nukes-to-break-treaty/Metaculustrue28.999999999999996%33
1160How efficacious will the Sputnik V SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be according to the peer reviewed results of the Phase 3 RCT?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5811/sputnik-v-sars-cov-2-vaccine-efficacy/Metaculusfalsenone47
1161Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/Metaculustrue50%68
1162Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5819/aussie-pollie-mathias-cormann-to-lead-oecd/Metaculustrue30%38
1163When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5823/date-first-class-royal-mail-stamps-costs-1/Metaculusfalsenone18
1164Will the UK government succeed in reducing its commitment to spend 0.7% of GNI on International aid?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5824/uk-to-cut-international-aid/Metaculustrue67%114
1165Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5826/bitcoin-below-10k/Metaculustrue21%381
1166How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5827/dc-charging-stations-in-boulder-co-by-2021/Metaculusfalsenone50
1167How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5828/dc-charging-stations-in-orlando-fl-in-2021/Metaculusfalsenone26
1168Will China land the next person on the Moon?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/Metaculustrue23%58
1169When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/Metaculusfalsenone67
1170How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5839/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2021/Metaculusfalsenone43
1171How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2035?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5840/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2035/Metaculusfalsenone19
1172On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5848/election-fraud-myth-persists/Metaculustrue80%129
1173When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/Metaculusfalsenone34
1174When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5858/when-will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected/Metaculusfalsenone78
1175What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5860/2020-mens-100m-final/Metaculusfalsenone51
1176What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5861/2020-olympic-womens-100m-final/Metaculusfalsenone48
1177Longbets series: will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5865/longbets-us-productivity-growth-2-2025/Metaculustrue40%16
1178Longbets series: will the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5866/longbets-low-unemployment-but-low-lfpr-2025/Metaculustrue51%27
1179What will US house prices be at the end of 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5867/real-us-house-prices-in-2030/Metaculusfalsenone42
1180What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on June 14, 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5871/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/Metaculusfalsenone166
1181What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2021 list?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5872/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-21/Metaculusfalsenone248
1182Will online poker die by 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5875/online-poker-dead-by-2030/Metaculustrue23%78
1183What percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5876/-of-us-gdp-spent-on-rd-in-2030/Metaculusfalsenone25
1184Will the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5882/2024-us-election-considered-fraudulent/Metaculustrue50%67
1185Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5883/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/Metaculustrue54%34
1186Will the Open Courts Act become law?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/Metaculustrue56.99999999999999%39
1187Will Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5885/will-elon-musk-walk-on-the-moon-by-2030/Metaculustrue1%47
1188Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5886/will-the-first-female-potus-be-republican/Metaculustrue26%48
1189How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5888/cv-e-prints-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/Metaculusfalsenone121
1190How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5889/nlp-e-prints-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/Metaculusfalsenone126
1191What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2021 TOP500 list?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5891/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2021/Metaculusfalsenone154
1192How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5892/ai-ethics-and-algo-bias-publications-2022/Metaculusfalsenone33
1193How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5894/ai-safety--other-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/Metaculusfalsenone178
1194What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5896/sota-on-pascal-context-at-2021-06-14/Metaculusfalsenone142
1195What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5897/sota-on-cityscapes-on-2021-06-14/Metaculusfalsenone144
1196What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5898/sota-on-imagenet-on-2021-06-14/Metaculusfalsenone188
1197How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv from 2021 through 2026?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5899/ai-safety--other-2021-through-2026/Metaculusfalsenone141
1198How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5900/few-shot-learning-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/Metaculusfalsenone137
1199How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5901/reinforcement-learning-2020-12-14-2021-06-14/Metaculusfalsenone124
1200What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5902/sota-1-shot-on-on-miniimagenet-2021-06-14/Metaculusfalsenone272
1201What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in Average Precision (AP)?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5903/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2021-06-14/Metaculusfalsenone167
1202What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5904/image-classification-index-2021-06-14/Metaculusfalsenone158
1203What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5906/number-confirmed-global-covid-cases-by-2022/Metaculusfalsenone158
1204What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5907/number-confirmed-global-covid-deaths-by-2022/Metaculusfalsenone127
1205What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/Metaculusfalsenone291
1206What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5909/covid-vaccine-doses-bought-by-us-by-june/Metaculusfalsenone152
1207How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5910/covid-vaccines-approved-by-us-fda-by-june/Metaculusfalsenone159
1208What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5911/april-2021-production-of-semiconducters/Metaculusfalsenone139
1209When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5912/when-will-us-allow-travel-from-europe/Metaculusfalsenone165
1210Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/Metaculustrue30%138
1211Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5915/will-us-aca-have-public-option-in-2021/Metaculustrue10%111
1212Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5916/will-2021-be-the-hottest-year-on-record/Metaculustrue33%190
1213When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5917/date-us-rejoins-paris-climate-agreement/Metaculusfalsenone293
1214Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5918/world-to-agree-to-new-climate-targets-in-2021/Metaculustrue67%96
1215Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5920/us-to-join-rcep-trade-pact-in-2021/Metaculustrue20%100
1216What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5921/net-migration-to-uk-in-2021/Metaculusfalsenone147
1217Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/Metaculustrue55.00000000000001%134
1218What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5923/us-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/Metaculusfalsenone128
1219What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2021-06-14 in perplexity?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5924/sota-perplexity-on-wikitext-103-2021-06-14/Metaculusfalsenone153
1220What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5925/eu-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/Metaculusfalsenone81
1221Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5926/bear-market-in-sp-500-in-2021/Metaculustrue30%215
1222What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/Metaculusfalsenone177
1223What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5928/wti-oil-price-in-december-2021/Metaculusfalsenone192
1224How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5929/us-pev-sales-in-2021/Metaculusfalsenone106
1225What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5931/number-of-commercial-flights-on-30-june-2021/Metaculusfalsenone113
1226When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/Metaculusfalsenone87
1227What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5935/it-and-comms-weighting-in-sp500-2021-06-14/Metaculusfalsenone209
1228What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5936/closing-price-igm-on-2021-06-14/Metaculusfalsenone167
1229What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5937/sota-on-superglue-on-2021-06-14/Metaculusfalsenone229
1230How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5938/multi-modal-ml-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/Metaculusfalsenone157
1231What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5939/it-as--of-gdp-in-q1-2021/Metaculusfalsenone189
1232What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5940/squad20-sota-perfomance-2021-06-14/Metaculusfalsenone170
1233What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5941/sota-text-to-sql-on-wikisql-2021-06-14/Metaculusfalsenone163
1234What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5942/box-office-gross-in-the-us--canada-in-2021/Metaculusfalsenone90
1235How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5943/us-excess-covid-19-deaths/Metaculusfalsenone64
1236What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5946/sota-on-imagenet-on-2024-06-14/Metaculusfalsenone167
1237What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2026-12-14 in perplexity?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5947/sota-perplexity-on-wikitext-103-2026-12-14/Metaculusfalsenone164
1238What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5948/image-classification-index-2026-12-14/Metaculusfalsenone148
1239What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2026 list?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5949/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-nov-2026/Metaculusfalsenone142
1240What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5950/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2030/Metaculusfalsenone133
1241What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on December 14, 2026?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5951/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/Metaculusfalsenone139
1242What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2026-12-14 in 2020 USD?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5955/alphabet-incs-market-cap-on-2026-12-14/Metaculusfalsenone169
1243What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q4 of 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5958/it-as--of-gdp-in-q4-2030/Metaculusfalsenone150
1244What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2026, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5960/dec-2026-production-of-semiconductors/Metaculusfalsenone113
1245How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01 period?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5961/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-01-2031-01-01/Metaculusfalsenone169
1246How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-01-01 to 2027-01-01 period?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5962/few-shot-learning-2020-12-14-to-2027-01-01/Metaculusfalsenone230
1247What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5965/object-detection-index-2021-06-14/Metaculusfalsenone166
1248What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5974/yang-last-round-vote-share-2021-ny-mayor/Metaculusfalsenone54
1249Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5979/ca-gov-newsom-petitioned-for-recall-election/Metaculustrue71%293
1250Will a Glastonbury Festival take place in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5986/glastonbury-festival-2021/Metaculustrue45%63
1251What will the unemployment rate be for German law degree holders in 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5987/unemployment-rate-for-german-lawyers-in-2025/Metaculusfalsenone30
1252For the month of February 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5990/february-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/Metaculusfalsenone55
1253What will the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate (i.e. multi-family, industrial, retail, and hotel) be in Q2 of 2021, in the US?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5991/us-commercial-real-estate-vacancy-q2-2021/Metaculusfalsenone37
1254What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5992/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/Metaculusfalsenone33
1255Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5993/washington-q1-2021-business-income--q1-2019/Metaculustrue40%35
1256What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5994/-change-in-pc-insurance-premiums-q1-2022/Metaculusfalsenone20
1257For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5995/will-us-peak-unemployment-in-2021-be-in-q1/Metaculustrue67%42
1258What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5996/cares-act-unemployment-payments-in-2021-q1/Metaculusfalsenone82
1259What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/Metaculusfalsenone70
1260How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/Metaculusfalsenone41
1261Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6000/lives-saved-by-seconddosedelay-for-vaccine/Metaculustrue80%92
1262When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 6%?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6002/gwp-growth-to-exceed-6/Metaculusfalsenone30
1263How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6003/total-donated-by-hia-athletes-by-end-of-2021/Metaculusfalsenone41
1264What fraction of High Impact Athletes pledge-takers will maintain it through the end of 2024?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6005/fraction-of-hia-pledges-still-active-in-2024/Metaculusfalsenone29
1265Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6007/vaccine-update-due-to-mutation/Metaculustrue99%284
1266Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/Metaculustrue61%126
1267What proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6010/england-proportion-of-hospital-acquired-covid/Metaculusfalsenone49
1268When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/Metaculusfalsenone26
1269Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6018/burger-king-to-cease-using-gestation-stalls/Metaculustrue8%46
1270Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6020/charity-entrepreneurship-to-birth-top-ace-ngo/Metaculustrue44%43
1271Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6021/ce-to-incubate-ace-recommended-ngo-by-2025/Metaculustrue60%40
1272When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6022/when-will-wild-animal-welfare-reach-top-uni/Metaculusfalsenone79
1273Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6023/charity-in-china-to-ace-aces-criteria/Metaculustrue23%80
1274Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6024/sexual-scandal-amongst-animal-advocates/Metaculustrue15%65
1275Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6025/diversity-debacle-amongst-animal-advocates/Metaculustrue12%59
1276How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6026/2021-donations-to-animal-charity-evaluators/Metaculusfalsenone26
1277How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6027/money-moved-by-animal-charity-evaluators/Metaculusfalsenone35
1278Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6028/nobel-prize-for-mmt-by-2041/Metaculustrue25%18
1279How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6029/flights-on-iata-vaccine-passports-in-2021/Metaculusfalsenone66
1280Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6031/more-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/Metaculustrue94%351
1281When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/Metaculusfalsenone68
1282Will any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6047/1m-lost-in-prediction-market/Metaculustrue30%49
1283When will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6048/tomb-of-the-first-qin-emperor-opened/Metaculusfalsenone18
1284Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6049/time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect/Metaculustrue76%72
1285Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/Metaculustrue40%319
1286What will be the median age of an employed person in the US in 2040?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6055/us-median-age-of-employed-person-by-2040/Metaculusfalsenone16
1287How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6056/us-employment-of-ages-16-24-in-2021/Metaculusfalsenone17
1288How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/Metaculusfalsenone18
1289How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6060/number-employed-in-us-retail-in-2021/Metaculusfalsenone30
1290How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6061/number-employed-in-us-transport-industry-2021/Metaculusfalsenone34
1291How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6062/number-employed-in-us-education-industry-2021/Metaculusfalsenone30
1292When will the US achieve racial unemployment parity between racial groups labeled 'black' and 'white' by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6064/us-black-white-unemployment-parity/Metaculusfalsenone38
1293How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6065/us-federal-budget-for-income-security-2021/Metaculusfalsenone31
1294What percentage of the US federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6066/us-federal-budget-for-medicare-in-2024/Metaculusfalsenone25
1295What will be the income ratio between men and women employed full-time by 2025 in the US?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6070/us-gender-income-ratio-by-2025/Metaculusfalsenone18
1296Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/Metaculustrue69%97
1297When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, "I Want My Hat Back"?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/Metaculusfalsenone178
1298How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6091/open-phil-grants-to-ai-safety-in-2021/Metaculusfalsenone40
1299Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/Metaculustrue25%101
1300What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6100/average-democracy-index-score-in-2021/Metaculusfalsenone25
1301Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6102/anti-5g-attack-to-take-life-in-20212022/Metaculustrue35%18
1302Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6104/b117-to-lock-down-3m-in-us-by-2021-03-11/Metaculustrue23%115
1303When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/Metaculusfalsenone135
1304How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/Metaculusfalsenone44
1305Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6108/norway-eea-membership-2025/Metaculustrue5%41
1306In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6109/ea-donations-to-new-charities-in-2025/Metaculusfalsenone29
1307What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6111/khan-final-round-mayoral-election-vote-share/Metaculusfalsenone62
1308How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6114/will-the-senate-confirm-many-judges-in-2021/Metaculusfalsenone51
1309When will there be at least one billion Americans?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6119/when-will-there-be-at-least-1bn-americans/Metaculusfalsenone64
1310What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6121/uk-index-of-economic-freedom-score-2025/Metaculusfalsenone24
1311When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6124/astrazenecaoxford-vaccine-us-eua-date/Metaculusfalsenone45
1312How good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6125/quality-of-retinal-implants-in-2030/Metaculusfalsenone47
1313How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/Metaculusfalsenone43
1314What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6127/maximum-number-of-covid-19-cases-by-june-1st/Metaculusfalsenone76
1315How much money will GiveWell move in 2031?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6140/how-much-money-will-givewell-move-in-2031/Metaculusfalsenone15
1316By January 14 2022, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6148/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2022-01-14/Metaculusfalsenone80
1317How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6149/change-in-degree-of-automation/Metaculusfalsenone82
1318What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6154/sota-one-billion-words-2022-01-14/Metaculusfalsenone66
1319What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6155/image-classification-index-2022-01-14/Metaculusfalsenone63
1320How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6157/ai-safety--other-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/Metaculusfalsenone55
1321Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6158/fluvoxamine-to-get-eua-for-covid-in-us/Metaculustrue19%25
1322When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6168/meetings-of-six-people-outside-in-england/Metaculusfalsenone67
1323When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/Metaculusfalsenone39
1324When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6170/indoor-party-of-100-people-in-england/Metaculusfalsenone45
1325How many consecutive Presidents of the United States will there be?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6175/number-of-united-states-presidents/Metaculusfalsenone39
1326Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/Metaculustrue4%143
1327What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2022-01-14 in perplexity?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6182/sota-wikitext-103-2022-01-14/Metaculusfalsenone65
1328What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6183/sota-imagenet-2022-01-14/Metaculusfalsenone86
1329What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6184/sota-on-squad20-2022-01-14/Metaculusfalsenone58
1330How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6185/multi-modal-ml-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/Metaculusfalsenone49
1331What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6191/sota-on-miniimagenet-at-2022-01-14/Metaculusfalsenone65
1332By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6192/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2031-01-01/Metaculusfalsenone61
1333What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/Metaculusfalsenone68
1334When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/Metaculusfalsenone111
1335When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6201/25-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/Metaculusfalsenone83
1336Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/Metaculustrue5%317
1337Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/Metaculustrue20%95
1338How many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6221/patients-at-chinese-cryonics-org-by-2026/Metaculusfalsenone18
1339When will the next interstellar object be discovered?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6225/next-interstellar-object/Metaculusfalsenone41
1340What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6227/sota-segmentation-cityscapes-2022-01-14/Metaculusfalsenone63
1341What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2026-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6228/sota-on-imagenet-2026-12-14/Metaculusfalsenone55
1342What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6229/sota-on-wikitext-103-2024-12-14/Metaculusfalsenone61
1343What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6230/sota-montezumas-revenge-2022-01-14/Metaculusfalsenone80
1344What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6231/object-detection-index-2022-01-14/Metaculusfalsenone56
1345What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2021 list?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6232/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-nov-21/Metaculusfalsenone66
1346What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/Metaculusfalsenone76
1347What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6234/performance-of-top-supercomputer-in-june-2030/Metaculusfalsenone69
1348How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to December 2026?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6236/change-in-degree-of-automation-20-to-26/Metaculusfalsenone63
1349How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6237/num-of-first-doses-given-in-uk-by-15-feb/Metaculusfalsenone210
1350When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/Metaculusfalsenone108
1351What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6240/it-and-comms-weighting-in-sp500-2022-01-14/Metaculusfalsenone60
1352When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/Metaculusfalsenone108
1353How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6245/few-shot-learning-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/Metaculusfalsenone57
1354How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6246/nlp-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/Metaculusfalsenone53
1355What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in average precision (AP)?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6248/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2022-01-14/Metaculusfalsenone48
1356What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/Metaculusfalsenone49
1357How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6250/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2022-01-14/Metaculusfalsenone42
1358What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6252/object-detection-index-2026-12-14/Metaculusfalsenone55
1359What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6255/closing-price-igm-on-2030-12-13/Metaculusfalsenone47
1360What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6256/median-wage-for-computer-scientists-2029/Metaculusfalsenone49
1361When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/Metaculusfalsenone87
1362Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6291/trump-family-indictments-in-2021/Metaculustrue34%122
1363Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6295/increase-in-us-poverty-from-2020-to-2021/Metaculustrue57.99999999999999%49
1364Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/Metaculustrue70%39
1365How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6298/cv-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/Metaculusfalsenone38
1366How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6299/nlo-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2030-01-14/Metaculusfalsenone58
1367How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6300/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2027-01-01/Metaculusfalsenone42
1368What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6301/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2021/Metaculusfalsenone48
1369What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6302/sota-1-shot-on-miniimagenet-at-2024-12-14/Metaculusfalsenone66
1370What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/Metaculusfalsenone58
1371Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6307/median-bay-area-house-prices-in-2021/Metaculustrue20%17
1372What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6308/change-in-stis-from-2019-to-2020-in-england/Metaculusfalsenone38
1373How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6311/biden-executive-orders-in-first-term/Metaculusfalsenone27
1374Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/Metaculustrue28.000000000000004%85
1375Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6316/india-gdp-growth-in-q1-q3-2021/Metaculustrue75%28
1376When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6325/us-below-100-covid-deaths-per-day/Metaculusfalsenone35
1377When, if ever, will 17 year olds vote in the US?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6326/17-year-old-suffrage-in-the-us/Metaculusfalsenone22
1378How many countries will allow 17 year olds to vote in 2026?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6327/youth-voting-around-the-world-in-2026/Metaculusfalsenone22
1379Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/Metaculustrue52%151
1380Will the CDU continue to govern Germany?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cducsu-chancellor-after-2021-elections/Metaculustrue75%26
1381When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/Metaculusfalsenone94
1382When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/Metaculusfalsenone24
1383What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/Metaculusfalsenone100
1384Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6348/ea-global-london-2021-rescheduled/Metaculustrue40%17
1385Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6352/insurrection-act-invoked-before-2025/Metaculustrue16%32
1386Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6356/aes-256-broken-by-2040/Metaculustrue9%50
1387Will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true by 2100?https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-hypothesis-proved-true-by-2100/Metaculustrue88%13
1388Which party will control the Senate after 2020 election?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4366/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2020-electionPredictItfalsenone
1389Which of these 5 European leaders will leave office next?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5717/Which-of-these-5-European-leaders-will-leave-office-nextPredictItfalsenone
1390Will Trump pardon himself in his first term?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6453/Will-Trump-pardon-himself-in-his-first-termPredictIttrue2%
1391What will be the popular vote margin in the 2020 presidential election?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6663/What-will-be-the-popular-vote-margin-in-the-2020-presidential-electionPredictItfalsenone
1392Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-DistrictPredictItfalsenone
1393What percentage of the presidential vote will not be for the two major parties?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6809/What-percentage-of-the-presidential-vote-will-not-be-for-the-two-major-partiesPredictItfalsenone
1394Which party will win the 2020 House race in New York's 22nd District?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6861/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-New-York's-22nd-DistrictPredictItfalsenone
1395Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-electionPredictItfalsenone
1396Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-electionPredictItfalsenone
1397How many votes in the 2020 U.S. presidential election?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6882/How-many-votes-in-the-2020-US-presidential-electionPredictItfalsenone
1398Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-electionPredictItfalsenone
1399How many U.S. House delegations will Republicans win in the 2020 election?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6925/How-many-US-House-delegations-will-Republicans-win-in-the-2020-electionPredictItfalsenone
1400How closely will the election results match the polls?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6936/How-closely-will-the-election-results-match-the-pollsPredictItfalsenone
1401Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of State on Feb. 15?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6944/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-State-on-Feb-15PredictItfalsenone
1402Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021PredictIttrue10%
1403Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Defense on Mar. 1?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6949/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Defense-on-Mar-1PredictItfalsenone
1404Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Labor on Mar. 1?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6951/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Labor-on-Mar-1PredictItfalsenone
1405Who will be the Senate-confirmed Attorney General on Mar. 1?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6952/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Attorney-General-on-Mar-1PredictItfalsenone
1406Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022PredictIttrue24%
1407Who will be the Senate-confirmed Treasury Secretary on Mar. 1?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6957/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Treasury-Secretary-on-Mar-1PredictItfalsenone
1408Who will be the Senate-confirmed HUD Secretary on Mar. 1?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6958/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HUD-Secretary-on-Mar-1PredictItfalsenone
1409Who will be the Senate-confirmed HHS Secretary on Mar. 1?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6965/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HHS-Secretary-on-Mar-1PredictItfalsenone
1410Who will be the Senate-confirmed Commerce Secretary on Mar. 1?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6966/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Commerce-Secretary-on-Mar-1PredictItfalsenone
1411Who will be the Senate-confirmed Homeland Security Secretary on Mar. 1?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6971/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Homeland-Security-Secretary-on-Mar-1PredictItfalsenone
1412Who will be the Senate-confirmed Energy Secretary on Mar. 1?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6972/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Energy-Secretary-on-Mar-1PredictItfalsenone
1413Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022PredictIttrue20%
1414Who will be the Senate-confirmed Interior Secretary on Mar. 1?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6976/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Interior-Secretary-on-Mar-1PredictItfalsenone
1415Who will be the Senate-confirmed CIA Director on Mar. 1?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6977/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-CIA-Director-on-Mar-1PredictItfalsenone
1416Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Education on Mar. 1?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6978/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Education-on-Mar-1PredictItfalsenone
1417Who will be the Senate-confirmed Transportation Secretary on Mar. 1?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6979/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Transportation-Secretary-on-Mar-1PredictItfalsenone
1418Who will be the Senate-confirmed Agriculture Secretary on Mar. 1?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6980/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Agriculture-Secretary-on-Mar-1PredictItfalsenone
1419Who will be the Senate-confirmed EPA Administrator on Mar. 1?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6981/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-EPA-Administrator-on-Mar-1PredictItfalsenone
1420Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14PredictIttrue51%
1421Will Pete Buttigieg be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6986/Will-Pete-Buttigieg-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1PredictIttrue99%
1422Who will be the Senate-confirmed Veterans Affairs Secretary on Mar. 1?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6987/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Veterans-Affairs-Secretary-on-Mar-1PredictItfalsenone
1423Who will be the Senate-confirmed Director of National Intelligence on Mar. 1?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6989/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Director-of-National-Intelligence-on-Mar-1PredictItfalsenone
1424Will Amy Klobuchar be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6990/Will-Amy-Klobuchar-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1PredictIttrue1%
1425Will Elizabeth Warren be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6991/Will-Elizabeth-Warren-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1PredictIttrue1%
1426Who will be the Senate-confirmed OMB Director on Mar. 1?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6992/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director-on-Mar-1PredictItfalsenone
1427Who will be the Senate-confirmed U.S. Trade Representative on Mar. 1?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6993/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-US-Trade-Representative-on-Mar-1PredictItfalsenone
1428Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021PredictIttrue33%
1429Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-electionPredictItfalsenone
1430Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-electionPredictItfalsenone
1431Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021PredictItfalsenone
1432Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primaryPredictIttrue96%
1433Will Israel hold national elections for Knesset in 2021?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7007/Will-Israel-hold-national-elections-for-Knesset-in-2021PredictIttrue99%
1434Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024PredictIttrue43%
1435Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023PredictIttrue22%
1436Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primaryPredictIttrue27%
1437Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022PredictItfalsenone
1438Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022PredictItfalsenone
1439Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primaryPredictIttrue12%
1440Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primaryPredictIttrue37%
1441Who will be the Senate-confirmed USAID Administrator on Mar. 16?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7020/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-USAID-Administrator-on-Mar-16PredictItfalsenone
1442Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primaryPredictIttrue25%
1443Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022PredictItfalsenone
1444Who will win the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7030/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Democratic-gubernatorial-primaryPredictItfalsenone
1445Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021PredictIttrue71%
1446How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7036/How-many-seats-will-Israel's-Likud-Party-win-in-the-next-Knesset-electionPredictItfalsenone
1447Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-NewsomPredictIttrue63%
1448Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31PredictItfalsenone
1449Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nominationPredictItfalsenone
1450Will the Senate convict Donald Trump in Biden's first 100 days?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7050/Will-the-Senate-convict-Donald-Trump-in-Biden's-first-100-daysPredictIttrue6%
1451Will Lisa Murkowski be a Republican on April 1?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7051/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-a-Republican-on-April-1PredictIttrue92%
1452Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nominationPredictItfalsenone
1453How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by Apr. 29?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7054/How-many-Senators-will-vote-to-convict-Donald-Trump-on-incitement-by-Apr-29PredictItfalsenone
1454Will Mitch McConnell vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7055/Will-Mitch-McConnell-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29PredictIttrue13%
1455Will Mitt Romney vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7056/Will-Mitt-Romney-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29PredictIttrue90%
1456Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nominationPredictItfalsenone
1457Will Susan Collins vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7058/Will-Susan-Collins-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29PredictIttrue62%
1458Will John Thune vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7059/Will-John-Thune-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29PredictIttrue7%
1459How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-electionPredictItfalsenone
1460How many Senators vote to confirm Pete Buttigieg as Transportation Secretary?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7064/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Pete-Buttigieg-as-Transportation-SecretaryPredictItfalsenone
1461Will Thom Tillis vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7066/Will-Thom-Tillis-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29PredictIttrue5%
1462Will Joe Manchin vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7067/Will-Joe-Manchin-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29PredictIttrue92%
1463Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021PredictItfalsenone
1464Will Richard Burr vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7070/Will-Richard-Burr-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29PredictIttrue9%
1465Will Rob Portman vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7071/Will-Rob-Portman-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29PredictIttrue20%
1466Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1PredictIttrue15%
1467How many Senators vote to confirm Gina Raimondo as Commerce Secretary?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7073/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Gina-Raimondo-as-Commerce-SecretaryPredictItfalsenone
1468Will the Senate censure Josh Hawley before May 1?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7074/Will-the-Senate-censure-Josh-Hawley-before-May-1PredictIttrue20%
1469Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeedPredictIttrue7%
1470How many Senators vote to confirm Alejandro Mayorkas as Homeland Security Sec.?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7076/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Alejandro-Mayorkas-as-Homeland-Security-SecPredictItfalsenone
1471Will Lisa Murkowski vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7077/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29PredictIttrue87%
1472Will Italy hold national elections before June 1?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7078/Will-Italy-hold-national-elections-before-June-1PredictIttrue25%
1473Will Ben Sasse vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7080/Will-Ben-Sasse-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29PredictIttrue80%
1474How many Senators vote to confirm Jennifer Granholm as Energy Secretary?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7081/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Jennifer-Granholm-as-Energy-SecretaryPredictItfalsenone
1475Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primaryPredictIttrue79%
1476Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021?https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021PredictIttrue12%
1477Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be above 10% on March 15, 2021?https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-above-10-on-march-15-2021PolyMarkettrue20.3269%69.00
1478How many more tweets will be on the @DonaldJTrumpJr account by February 1, 2021?https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-donald-j-trump-jr-account-by-february-1-2021PolyMarketfalsenone798.00
1479Will Donald Trump's Twitter account be active on March 1, 2021?https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-s-twitter-account-be-active-on-march-1-2021PolyMarkettrue4.4456%247.00
1480Will ETH be above $1500 on February 3rd, 2021?https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-1500-on-february-3rd-2021PolyMarkettrue20.6871%165.00
1481Will there be enough signatures for a vote on the recall of Gov. Newsom by March 17?https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-gov-newsom-by-march-17PolyMarkettrue68.4254%34.00
1482Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on March 1, 2021?https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-1-2021PolyMarkettrue96.5852%3239.00
1483Who will the world's richest person be on February 27, 2021?https://polymarket.com/market/who-will-the-world-s-richest-person-be-on-february-27-2021PolyMarketfalsenone558.00
1484How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by March 1?https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-senators-will-vote-to-convict-donald-trump-on-incitement-by-march-1PolyMarketfalsenone377.00
1485Will Tesla announce a Bitcoin purchase before March 1, 2021?https://polymarket.com/market/will-tesla-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-march-1-2021PolyMarkettrue12.5256%975.00
1486Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in The US by April 1, 2021?https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021PolyMarkettrue59.9503%890.00
1487Will Bitcoin or Tesla have a higher market cap on March 1, 2021?https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-or-tesla-have-a-higher-market-cap-on-march-1-2021PolyMarkettrue32.2396%288.00
1488How many more tweets will be on the @ElonMusk account on February 3, 2021?https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-elon-musk-account-on-february-3-2021PolyMarketfalsenone179.00
1489Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-matchPolyMarkettrue93.1437%451.00
1490Will $BTC break $50k before April 1st, 2021?https://polymarket.com/market/will-btc-break-50k-before-april-1st-2021PolyMarkettrue27.6431%1259.00
1491Will YFI total supply be greater than 30,000 by March 15th?https://polymarket.com/market/will-yfi-total-supply-be-greater-than-30-000-by-march-15thPolyMarkettrue86.4956%118.00
1492Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021PolyMarkettrue4.9602%1144.00
1493Which party will control the senate?https://polymarket.com/market/which-party-will-control-the-senatePolyMarkettrue0.4525%1554.00
1494What rating will theneedledrop give Drake’s "Certified Lover Boy"?https://polymarket.com/market/what-rating-will-theneedledrop-give-drake-s-certified-lover-boyPolyMarkettrue52.0540%56.00
1495$2000 stimulus checks by February 28, 2021?https://polymarket.com/market/2000-stimulus-checks-by-february-28-2021PolyMarkettrue26.0828%946.00
1496Will the Senate convict Donald Trump on impeachment by April 29, 2021?https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-senate-convict-donald-trump-on-impeachment-before-june-1-2021PolyMarkettrue5.0066%553.00
1497Superbowl 55: Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneershttps://polymarket.com/market/will-the-kansas-city-chiefs-win-superbowl-55PolyMarkettrue59.5820%505.00
1498 Will Kim Kardashian or Kanye West file for divorce before March 1, 2021?https://polymarket.com/market/will-kim-kardashian-or-kanye-west-file-for-divorce-before-march-1-2021PolyMarkettrue26.3912%155.00
1499Donald Trump federally charged by February 20th?https://polymarket.com/market/donald-trump-federally-charged-by-february-20thPolyMarkettrue5.4501%265.00
1500What will Coinbase’s market cap be 1 week after it starts publicly trading?https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-coinbase-s-market-cap-be-1-week-after-it-starts-publicly-tradingPolyMarkettrue72.4711%263.00
1501Conditional on President Trump NOT being convicted of "incitement of insurrection," what will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022CSET-foretellfalsenone59
1502Conditional on President Trump being convicted of "incitement of insurrection," what will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/108-conditional-on-the-senate-convicting-president-trump-of-insurrection-what-will-be-the-average-bipartisan-index-score-for-the-senate-during-congress-s-117th-session-2021-2022CSET-foretellfalsenone62
1503How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusiveCSET-foretellfalsenone45
1504How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusiveCSET-foretellfalsenone51
1505How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusiveCSET-foretellfalsenone21
1506How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021CSET-foretellfalsenone55
1507What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusiveCSET-foretellfalsenone28
1508Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022CSET-foretelltrue51%58
1509How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/101-on-how-many-of-china-s-top-chipmakers-will-the-united-states-impose-new-export-controls-in-2021CSET-foretellfalsenone66
1510What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/100-what-percentage-of-the-collective-revenue-of-the-leading-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-producers-will-come-from-china-between-july-1-2020-and-june-30-2021-inclusiveCSET-foretellfalsenone49
1511Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021CSET-foretelltrue148
1512What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021?https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/95-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-in-2021CSET-foretellfalsenone63
1513When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kongCSET-foretellfalsenone146
1514What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2021?https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/96-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-chips-in-2021CSET-foretellfalsenone63
1515What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021?https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/93-what-will-the-dollar-value-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-chips-to-china-be-in-the-first-half-of-2021CSET-foretellfalsenone71
1516What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in the first half of 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/92-what-will-the-dollar-value-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-to-china-be-in-the-first-half-of-2021CSET-foretellfalsenone57
1517What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-surveyCSET-foretellfalsenone149
1518What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/86-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-be-u-s-china-collaborations-in-2021CSET-foretellfalsenone88
1519Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025CSET-foretelltrue71%137
1520What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for China be in the first two quarters of 2021?https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/84-what-will-the-ratio-of-trade-imports-exports-of-goods-to-gdp-be-china-in-the-first-two-quarters-january-1-through-june-30-of-2021CSET-foretellfalsenone58
1521What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for all OECD member countries be in the first two quarters of 2021?https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/83-what-will-the-ratio-of-trade-imports-exports-of-goods-to-gdp-be-for-oecd-member-countries-in-the-first-two-quarters-january-1-through-june-30-of-2021CSET-foretellfalsenone55
1522What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/80-what-percentage-of-u-s-citizens-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2021-pew-global-attitudes-surveyCSET-foretellfalsenone208
1523What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/79-conditional-on-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fy-2021-october-1-2020-to-september-30-2021CSET-foretellfalsenone87
1524What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/76-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2021CSET-foretellfalsenone82
1525What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021CSET-foretellfalsenone172
1526How much will the U.S. government spend on surveillance-related AI grants between June 1, 2020 and May 31, 2021, inclusive?https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/41-how-much-will-the-u-s-government-spend-on-surveillance-related-ai-grants-between-june-1-2020-and-may-31-2021-inclusiveCSET-foretellfalsenone84
1527How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/32-how-many-sorties-against-chinese-aircraft-will-the-japanese-air-self-defense-force-conduct-by-april-30th-2020CSET-foretellfalsenone89
1528How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive?https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/23-how-many-new-h-1b-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fy-2020CSET-foretellfalsenone119
1529Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021Good Judgment Opentrue54%56
1530Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912-will-russia-conduct-a-flight-test-of-an-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-before-1-august-2021Good Judgment Opentrue64%58
1531Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1909-will-chinese-businessman-jack-ma-physically-appear-in-public-outside-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-before-1-april-2021Good Judgment Opentrue1%86
1532Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021Good Judgment Opentrue10%150
1533When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1914-when-will-the-public-health-agency-of-canada-phac-report-1-1-million-or-more-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-canadaGood Judgment Openfalsenone75
1534How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1913-how-many-u-s-states-will-have-an-infection-rate-of-1-0-or-greater-for-covid-19-as-of-31-march-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone80
1535Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-seaGood Judgment Opentrue2%88
1536Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1904-will-the-scottish-national-party-win-a-majority-of-seats-in-the-next-scottish-parliament-electionGood Judgment Opentrue90%121
1537Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021Good Judgment Opentrue15%50
1538How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902-how-many-seats-will-the-united-russia-party-win-in-the-2021-russian-state-duma-electionsGood Judgment Openfalsenone70
1539Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1906-before-15-july-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-moldova-s-parliamentGood Judgment Openfalsenone39
1540When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1907-when-will-a-new-dutch-government-be-sworn-in-after-the-2021-general-electionGood Judgment Openfalsenone73
1541Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021Good Judgment Opentrue42%49
1542What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone94
1543Which NFL team will win Super Bowl LV?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1898-which-nfl-team-will-win-super-bowl-lvGood Judgment Openfalsenone166
1544Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021Good Judgment Opentrue52%78
1545Will the New START treaty be extended by Russia and the U.S. before 6 February 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1899-will-the-new-start-treaty-be-extended-by-russia-and-the-u-s-before-6-february-2021Good Judgment Opentrue100%217
1546Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone69
1547Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-unionGood Judgment Opentrue74%128
1548Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021Good Judgment Opentrue32%120
1549Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022Good Judgment Opentrue4%67
1550Before 15 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1892-before-15-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-seaGood Judgment Opentrue3%176
1551When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcyGood Judgment Openfalsenone138
1552At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-worldGood Judgment Openfalsenone125
1553Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-luciaGood Judgment Openfalsenone83
1554How many seats in the Legislative Assembly will New Ideas (Nuevas Ideas) win in the 2021 Salvadoran legislative election?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1889-how-many-seats-in-the-legislative-assembly-will-new-ideas-nuevas-ideas-win-in-the-2021-salvadoran-legislative-electionGood Judgment Openfalsenone34
1555What will be the closing price of Mercado Libre stock on 15 February 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1888-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-mercado-libre-stock-on-15-february-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone181
1556How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the Americas Region as of 1 February 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1887-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-have-been-reported-by-the-world-health-organization-who-for-the-americas-region-as-of-1-february-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone566
1557How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United Kingdom as of 1 February 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1886-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-have-been-reported-by-the-world-health-organization-who-for-the-united-kingdom-as-of-1-february-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone602
1558What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone127
1559Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021Good Judgment Opentrue15%140
1560When will Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies approve the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1890-when-will-mexico-s-chamber-of-deputies-approve-the-federal-law-for-the-regulation-of-cannabisGood Judgment Openfalsenone22
1561On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a number of daily new COVID-19 cases per 100k residents of 75.0 or higher?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1881-on-1-march-2021-how-many-states-will-have-a-number-of-daily-new-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-of-75-0-or-higherGood Judgment Openfalsenone292
1562On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1880-on-1-march-2021-how-many-states-will-have-a-covid-19-positivity-rate-greater-than-10-0Good Judgment Openfalsenone208
1563Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1879-before-1-april-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-israel-s-knessetGood Judgment Openfalsenone217
1564At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone87
1565Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoinGood Judgment Opentrue44%114
1566Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00Good Judgment Opentrue3%122
1567Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022Good Judgment Openfalsenone346
1568Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone295
1569Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-chinaGood Judgment Opentrue16%204
1570Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021Good Judgment Opentrue5%259
1571Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowersGood Judgment Opentrue25%183
1572Will the monthly occupancy level of European hotels next reach 50.0% or higher before June 2021, according to Smith Travel Research?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1874-will-the-monthly-occupancy-level-of-european-hotels-next-reach-50-0-or-higher-before-june-2021-according-to-smith-travel-researchGood Judgment Opentrue20%236
1573Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-chinaGood Judgment Openfalsenone201
1574Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022Good Judgment Opentrue8%181
1575When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-sGood Judgment Openfalsenone164
1576Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisherGood Judgment Opentrue57%60
1577Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zeroGood Judgment Opentrue10%247
1578Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020Good Judgment Opentrue85%81
1579In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitutionGood Judgment Opentrue66%48
1580What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloombergGood Judgment Openfalsenone129
1581Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstanGood Judgment Openfalsenone85
1582Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1856-will-the-imf-estimate-for-world-gdp-growth-for-2021-be-higher-in-its-april-2021-world-economic-outlook-report-relative-to-its-october-2020-reportGood Judgment Opentrue79%258
1583Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peruGood Judgment Openfalsenone103
1584Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who "worked from home exclusively" fell below 20%?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20Good Judgment Opentrue50%349
1585Who will be appointed as the next leader of the Communist Party in Vietnam?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1848-who-will-be-appointed-as-the-next-leader-of-the-communist-party-in-vietnamGood Judgment Openfalsenone194
1586What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone400
1587How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone826
1588How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone384
1589Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazilGood Judgment Opentrue252
1590Will the average price of a gallon of gasoline fall below $1.95 for any week before 2 March 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1847-will-the-average-price-of-a-gallon-of-gasoline-fall-below-1-95-for-any-week-before-2-march-2021Good Judgment Opentrue1%342
1591Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-april-2021Good Judgment Opentrue3%388
1592In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-countGood Judgment Opentrue195
1593Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eiaGood Judgment Opentrue95%257
1594On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergencyGood Judgment Opentrue85%235
1595Between 13 November 2020 and 12 February 2021, will the closing price per barrel of WTI crude oil be higher than the closing price per barrel of Brent crude oil?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1839-between-13-november-2020-and-12-february-2021-will-the-closing-price-per-barrel-of-wti-crude-oil-be-higher-than-the-closing-price-per-barrel-of-brent-crude-oilGood Judgment Opentrue0%243
1596When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-regionGood Judgment Openfalsenone218
1597Will the People's Republic of China (PRC) officially declare an air-defense identification zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 March 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1832-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-officially-declare-an-air-defense-identification-zone-adiz-over-any-part-of-the-south-china-sea-before-1-march-2021Good Judgment Opentrue5%340
1598Between 9 November 2020 and 28 February 2021, will a country cease to formally recognize Taiwan?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1831-between-9-november-2020-and-28-february-2021-will-a-country-cease-to-formally-recognize-taiwanGood Judgment Opentrue2%420
1599Will Russia and the People's Republic of China (PRC) conduct any joint naval exercises before 1 March 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1833-will-russia-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-conduct-any-joint-naval-exercises-before-1-march-2021Good Judgment Opentrue93%349
1600When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 35 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the Europe Region?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1834-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-35-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-europe-regionGood Judgment Openfalsenone360
1601At close of business on 17 March 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 27 January 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1824-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-27-january-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone134
1602Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authorityGood Judgment Opentrue4%164
1603Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-awsGood Judgment Opentrue4%239
1604Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019Good Judgment Opentrue95%227
1605How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone973
1606Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021Good Judgment Opentrue233
1607Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoirGood Judgment Opentrue3%162
1608Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conductGood Judgment Openfalsenone129
1609Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022Good Judgment Opentrue99%119
1610When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-statesGood Judgment Openfalsenone388
1611For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-statesGood Judgment Opentrue12%513
1612What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone215
1613What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1799-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-housing-starts-for-april-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone319
1614When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1801-when-will-lebanon-s-parliament-give-a-vote-of-confidence-to-a-new-governmentGood Judgment Openfalsenone329
1615Before 1 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation at sea between the forces of India and the People's Republic of China?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1795-before-1-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-at-sea-between-the-forces-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-chinaGood Judgment Opentrue0%368
1616In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutionalGood Judgment Opentrue97%190
1617Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021Good Judgment Opentrue2%340
1618Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-fromGood Judgment Openfalsenone226
1619When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788-when-will-25-000-or-more-fans-next-attend-a-premier-league-matchGood Judgment Openfalsenone535
1620Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdomGood Judgment Opentrue9%911
1621Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021Good Judgment Opentrue5%329
1622Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782-will-any-2020-california-election-results-be-altered-by-a-cyberattack-against-a-voting-systemGood Judgment Opentrue280
1623Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021Good Judgment Opentrue534
1624When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-dayGood Judgment Openfalsenone675
1625In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-systemGood Judgment Opentrue92%183
1626In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774-in-california-v-texas-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-reducing-the-penalty-amount-for-the-individual-mandate-of-the-affordable-care-act-aca-to-zero-rendered-the-individual-mandate-provision-unconstitutionalGood Judgment Opentrue0%299
1627Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympicsGood Judgment Opentrue5%490
1628How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone440
1629When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1762-when-will-the-eu-amend-its-own-resources-decision-to-help-finance-the-eu-s-proposed-covid-19-recovery-packageGood Judgment Openfalsenone186
1630How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1760-how-many-cybertrucks-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022Good Judgment Openfalsenone276
1631Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-serviceGood Judgment Openfalsenone205
1632Before 14 February 2021, will former King Juan Carlos I and/or former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont return to Spain?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1740-before-14-february-2021-will-former-king-juan-carlos-i-and-or-former-catalan-president-carles-puigdemont-return-to-spainGood Judgment Openfalsenone233
1633Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1744-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-debut-a-passenger-vehicle-powered-by-a-solid-state-batteryGood Judgment Openfalsenone214
1634When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-americaGood Judgment Openfalsenone472
1635Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-monthGood Judgment Opentrue2%257
1636Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-usedGood Judgment Opentrue9%530
1637Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-sGood Judgment Openfalsenone185
1638How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1698-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2021-and-2022-combinedGood Judgment Openfalsenone176
1639How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1678-how-many-public-dc-fast-charge-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-united-states-by-31-december-2022Good Judgment Openfalsenone165
1640How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021Good Judgment Openfalsenone907
1641Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceledGood Judgment Openfalsenone1111
1642Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-lawGood Judgment Opentrue72%206
1643Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021Good Judgment Opentrue5%855
1644How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022Good Judgment Openfalsenone234
1645How many total Fast Charge (&gt;22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022Good Judgment Openfalsenone233
1646Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheelGood Judgment Openfalsenone339
1647Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-european-union-delay-and-or-relax-the-implementation-and-or-enforcement-of-any-of-its-co2-emission-performance-standards-for-new-passenger-cars-and-or-new-light-commercial-vehiclesGood Judgment Opentrue2%163
1648What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1583-what-will-be-the-2022-industry-wide-average-cost-of-li-ion-batteries-used-in-battery-powered-electric-vehiclesGood Judgment Openfalsenone221
1649What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1582-what-total-percentage-of-global-vehicle-sales-in-2022-will-be-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-and-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-phevsGood Judgment Openfalsenone331
1650Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1411-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-that-caps-administrative-fees-and-or-operating-profits-of-the-country-s-pension-fund-managersGood Judgment Opentrue1%253
1651Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets?https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1412-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-nationalizing-private-pension-fund-assetsGood Judgment Opentrue2%284
1652Will the Ethereum block gas limit be >= 25,000,000 gas in any block on April 1st 2021?https://omen.eth.link/#/0x06c942fd737bc53571a34667b2ae3b669f1f502dOmentrue99.7653%
1653Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021?https://omen.eth.link/#/0x32848849f5b7e30ff75f57838fea8f9663c3d9deOmentrue10.8673%
1654Will at least 6000 YFI tokens be minted till end of Feb?https://omen.eth.link/#/0x7a236ecb8686068fd0f41c88773bb9cb40856e6dOmentrue48.1083%
1655Will Uniswap V3 be launched and usable in Q1 2021? (includes mainnet or Layer2)https://omen.eth.link/#/0x8bcf27b20670a4f32973cbf231b8904029da1ccbOmentrue40.1381%
1656When will the FDA approve the use of an existing, orally-administered vaccine for the prevention of COVID-19?https://omen.eth.link/#/0x9598659e3fc7d5a618b57e94be2ac37e5d774905Omenfalsenone
1657Will The Flippening happen in 2021? (Will another blockchain's market cap exceed Bitcoin's market cap in 2021?)https://omen.eth.link/#/0xa6da2bc89a433b9cdcc7271077a119139f4d305cOmentrue50.0000%
1658Will United States v Griffith (case 19 MAG 10987) resolve with Griffith convicted of a felony such as violating IEEPA?https://omen.eth.link/#/0xcc6cc7204eeba3f76168458b3ac725af89bb9fbbOmentrue60.0000%
1659Will Joe Biden be the US President at the end of 2021?https://omen.eth.link/#/0xd450b6c4db569f600cb42acc0a6cd3a140c4894bOmentrue85.1032%
1660What will be the outcome of the 2020 US Presidential Election for the office of President of the United States, where the winner is the one receiving the most votes from certified electors of the Electoral College, those votes having been officially counted by the United States Congress under VICE PRESIDENT MICHAEL PENCE on January 6, 2021 (per the Electoral Count Act of 1887)?https://omen.eth.link/#/0xdbf41f1f2d28216eb4e76b9ed3856180c2daa479Omentrue99.0000%
1661Will Compound Chain be launched and usable by the end of Q2 2021?https://omen.eth.link/#/0xe018254be84e200bfb9947dc57df8943cb2ac1b2Omentrue40.0000%
1662Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021?https://omen.eth.link/#/0xed6940e49cee029c4664d9794c04d5f9e5597632Omentrue11.7267%
1663Will at least 6000 YFI tokens be minted till end of Feb?https://omen.eth.link/#/0xf2f5db144ec6dcd40a9e425b67a4930a3f442a16Omentrue31.2652%