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[
{
"Title": "Will the Universe end?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/161/will-the-universe-end/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "70%",
"# Forecasts": 548
},
{
"Title": "Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "31%",
"# Forecasts": 4894
},
{
"Title": "Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "60%",
"# Forecasts": 789
},
{
"Title": "When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 290
},
{
"Title": "Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/372/will-human-brain-emulation-be-the-first-successful-route-to-human-level-digital-intelligence/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "6%",
"# Forecasts": 404
},
{
"Title": "The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "12%",
"# Forecasts": 789
},
{
"Title": "Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "61%",
"# Forecasts": 906
},
{
"Title": "Robocup Challenge",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/397/robocup-challenge/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "25%",
"# Forecasts": 300
},
{
"Title": "When will there be machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO construction?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 293
},
{
"Title": "When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 477
},
{
"Title": "When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/418/when-will-the-first-law-concerning-artificial-intelligence-be-passed-in-the-us/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 422
},
{
"Title": "If you die today and get cryonically frozen, will you \"wake up\"?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/455/if-you-die-today-and-get-cryonically-frozen-will-you-wake-up/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "6%",
"# Forecasts": 530
},
{
"Title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/480/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-white-winning/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "35%",
"# Forecasts": 125
},
{
"Title": "Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/489/will-the-european-union-meet-its-2030-targets-under-the-paris-climate-treaty/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "35%",
"# Forecasts": 289
},
{
"Title": "Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/491/will-china-achieve-its-paris-climate-agreement-goals/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "65%",
"# Forecasts": 263
},
{
"Title": "With an international nuclear weapons ban in place, will a country that has nuclear weapons actually give them up by 2035?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "20%",
"# Forecasts": 255
},
{
"Title": "Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/512/will-an-ai-system-do-credibly-well-on-a-full-math-sat-exam-by-2025/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "71%",
"# Forecasts": 641
},
{
"Title": "Will the first commercial hyperloop system be within the US?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/513/will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-be-within-the-us/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "36%",
"# Forecasts": 269
},
{
"Title": "A major United States earthquake by 2023?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/570/a-major-united-states-earthquake-within-the-next-five-years/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "33%",
"# Forecasts": 515
},
{
"Title": "Will humans go extinct by 2100?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "1%",
"# Forecasts": 644
},
{
"Title": "Will VR or AR Headsets dominate by 2025?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/579/will-vr-or-ar-headsets-dominate-by-2025/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "50%",
"# Forecasts": 248
},
{
"Title": "2˚C global warming by 2100?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "89%",
"# Forecasts": 358
},
{
"Title": "World Population in 2050?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 305
},
{
"Title": "If alien life is discovered in the Solar System before 2050, which place will be the natural environment of the first extraterrestrial (Solar) life-form of which there is conclusive evidence?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/593/if-alien-life-is-discovered-in-the-solar-system-before-2050-which-place-will-be-the-natural-environment-of-the-first-extraterrestrial-solar-life-form-of-which-there-is-conclusive-evidence/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 79
},
{
"Title": "Increased off-world population in 2050?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/594/off-world-population-in-2050/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "94%",
"# Forecasts": 450
},
{
"Title": "Will a sample of negative energy be produced by 2100?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/600/will-a-sample-of-negative-energy-be-produced-by-2100/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "20%",
"# Forecasts": 225
},
{
"Title": "Will gravitational waves from the merger of supermassive black holes be detected within the next 10 years?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/604/will-gravitational-waves-from-the-merger-of-supermassive-black-holes-be-detected-within-the-next-10-years/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "68%",
"# Forecasts": 255
},
{
"Title": "How much global warming by 2100?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/605/how-much-global-warming-by-2100/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 454
},
{
"Title": "Answer to signal broadcast into space by 2045?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/606/answer-to-signal-broadcast-into-space-by-2045/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "1%",
"# Forecasts": 241
},
{
"Title": "Will our current peace be shorter than the Pax Romana?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/610/will-our-current-peace-be-shorter-than-the-pax-romana/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "53%",
"# Forecasts": 354
},
{
"Title": "Will there be a Vegan Country by 2100?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/614/will-there-be-a-vegan-country-by-2100/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "20%",
"# Forecasts": 456
},
{
"Title": "Will we reach the island of stability by 2050?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/658/will-we-reach-the-island-of-stability-by-2050/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "45%",
"# Forecasts": 196
},
{
"Title": "Kessler syndrome by 2050?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/665/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-operational-in-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "15%",
"# Forecasts": 422
},
{
"Title": "When will the world create the first Trillionaire?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 350
},
{
"Title": "By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/684/by-2025-will-someone-be-able-to-hold-hisher-breath-for-30-minutes/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "15%",
"# Forecasts": 228
},
{
"Title": "Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/685/will-the-us-get-rid-of-the-penny-by-2025/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "25%",
"# Forecasts": 362
},
{
"Title": "Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "55.00000000000001%",
"# Forecasts": 425
},
{
"Title": "When will there be a mile-high building?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/735/when-will-there-be-a-mile-high-building/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 203
},
{
"Title": "Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/will-there-be-a-complete-4-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles-before-the-first-1-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "71%",
"# Forecasts": 278
},
{
"Title": "Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/737/will-spacex-land-anything-on-mars-by-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "85%",
"# Forecasts": 1049
},
{
"Title": "Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "50%",
"# Forecasts": 374
},
{
"Title": "Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/804/1000th-binary-question-resolution-is-positive/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "35%",
"# Forecasts": 84
},
{
"Title": "Will Europa be the first place humanity will discover extraterrestrial life, if it is discovered by 2045?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/808/will-europa-be-the-first-place-humanity-will-discover-extraterrestrial-life-if-it-is-discovered-by-2045/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "22%",
"# Forecasts": 337
},
{
"Title": "Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/809/will-a-member-of-president-trumps-inner-circle-be-sentenced-to-jail-by-2023/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "90%",
"# Forecasts": 315
},
{
"Title": "Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/824/will-a-practical-nuclear-fusion-reactor-first-be-developed-in-china/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "30%",
"# Forecasts": 314
},
{
"Title": "Will Metaculus exist in 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/841/will-metaculus-exist-in-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "85%",
"# Forecasts": 456
},
{
"Title": "Will the world's richest person in 2033 have a net worth greater than that of John D. Rockefeller in 1913?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/899/will-the-worlds-richest-person-in-2033-have-a-net-worth-greater-than-that-of-john-d-rockefeller-in-1913/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "33%",
"# Forecasts": 245
},
{
"Title": "Will we discover clear evidence of proton decay by 2040?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/915/will-we-discover-clear-evidence-of-proton-decay-by-2040/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "30%",
"# Forecasts": 150
},
{
"Title": "Will another 9/11 on U.S. soil be prevented at least through 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/916/will-another-911-on-us-soil-be-prevented-at-least-through-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "75%",
"# Forecasts": 224
},
{
"Title": "Will a space elevator successfully be built by 2100?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/917/will-a-space-elevator-successfully-be-built-by-2100/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "8%",
"# Forecasts": 355
},
{
"Title": "When will we get the last communication from Voyager 1?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/943/when-will-we-get-the-last-communication-from-voyager-1/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 112
},
{
"Title": "Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/953/will-mike-pence-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-in-2024/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "5%",
"# Forecasts": 209
},
{
"Title": "Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "16%",
"# Forecasts": 1116
},
{
"Title": "Will cost-adjusted IT technology be worse than it was 8 years (32 quarters) ago in at least one quarter prior to 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/968/will-cost-adjusted-it-technology-be-worse-than-it-was-8-years-32-quarters-ago-in-at-least-one-quarter-prior-to-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "26%",
"# Forecasts": 126
},
{
"Title": "When will commercial supersonic flight return?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/969/when-will-commercial-supersonic-flight-return/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 261
},
{
"Title": "Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "23%",
"# Forecasts": 540
},
{
"Title": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-by-2024/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "70%",
"# Forecasts": 346
},
{
"Title": "Any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1002/any-progress-in-human-lifespan-enhancement-by-2100/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "90%",
"# Forecasts": 297
},
{
"Title": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "30%",
"# Forecasts": 350
},
{
"Title": "Will there be a city on Earth with a population of over 100 million by 2100?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1052/will-there-be-a-city-on-earth-with-a-population-of-over-100-million-by-2100/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "54%",
"# Forecasts": 266
},
{
"Title": "How long will the Great Pyramids be recognizable?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1056/how-long-will-the-great-pyramids-be-recognizable/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 198
},
{
"Title": "Will humanity (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered \"under serious threat\" by 2040?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1058/will-humanity-essentially-run-out-of-at-least-one-element-currently-considered-under-serious-threat-by-2040/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "33%",
"# Forecasts": 174
},
{
"Title": "Before 2051, will a meteor cause more injuries than the one that shook Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1059/before-2051-will-a-meteor-cause-more-injuries-than-the-one-that-shook-chelyabinsk-russia-in-2013/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "50%",
"# Forecasts": 34
},
{
"Title": "Will there be a 9 foot tall human by 2075?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1061/will-there-be-a-9-foot-tall-human-by-2075/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "25%",
"# Forecasts": 217
},
{
"Title": "When will the student loan debt bubble \"pop\"?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1085/when-will-the-student-loan-debt-bubble-pop/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 152
},
{
"Title": "When will the last member of our species, homo sapiens, be born?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1088/when-will-the-last-member-of-our-species-homo-sapiens-be-born/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 199
},
{
"Title": "Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "38%",
"# Forecasts": 277
},
{
"Title": "Will Ray Kurzweil be proven right?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1321/will-ray-kurzweil-be-proven-right/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "25%",
"# Forecasts": 190
},
{
"Title": "Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1332/will-global-malaria-mortality-rates-be-reduced-by-90-when-compared-with-2015-rates-by-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "33%",
"# Forecasts": 220
},
{
"Title": "Drake's Equation 1st Parameter R∗: What is the average rate of formation of suitable stars (stars/year) in our galaxy?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337/drakes-equation-1st-parameter-r/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 228
},
{
"Title": "Drake's Equation 2nd parameter f_p: What fraction of stars form planets?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1338/drakes-equation-2nd-parameter-f_p/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 249
},
{
"Title": "Drake's Equation 3rd parameter n_e: What is the average number of habitable planets per star?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-3rd-parameter-n_e/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 230
},
{
"Title": "Drake's Equation 4th parameter f_l: On what fraction of habitable planets does any form of life emerge?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1340/drakes-equation-4th-parameter-f_l/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 279
},
{
"Title": "Drake's Equation 5th parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve?",
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"Title": "Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?",
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"Title": "Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: For how many years does a civilization remain detectable?",
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{
"Title": "Will a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launch by 2030?",
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{
"Title": "Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027?",
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"Binary question?": true,
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{
"Title": "Will AI progress surprise us?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
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{
"Title": "Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?",
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{
"Title": "Does P = NP? Informally: If the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem be easy to solve?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
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"Percentage": "3%",
"# Forecasts": 194
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{
"Title": "When will one TeraFlOPS cost $1?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1416/when-will-one-teraflops-cost-1/",
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"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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{
"Title": "When will a fifth nation be able to launch people into space?",
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{
"Title": "Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
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{
"Title": "Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in colleges in 2025 be ≥10% less than were enrolled in 2015?",
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"Percentage": "20%",
"# Forecasts": 182
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{
"Title": "When will India send their first own astronauts to space?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/",
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{
"Title": "When will the longest spaceflight of any one person reach 5 years?",
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"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 117
},
{
"Title": "Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?",
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"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "15%",
"# Forecasts": 176
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{
"Title": "A freer China? Chinese political rights and civil liberties in 2028",
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"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 146
},
{
"Title": "Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?",
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"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "3%",
"# Forecasts": 290
},
{
"Title": "Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
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"# Forecasts": 277
},
{
"Title": "Will we know what Dark Matter is before 2050?",
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"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "50%",
"# Forecasts": 197
},
{
"Title": "Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?",
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"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "5%",
"# Forecasts": 285
},
{
"Title": "Will any intelligent living being (human descendants, aliens, etc.) ever listen to the copy of Blind Willie Johnson's \"Dark Was the Night\" on Voyager I's Golden Record?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "4%",
"# Forecasts": 172
},
{
"Title": "When will either the Democratic or Republican party in the US cease to exist?",
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"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 121
},
{
"Title": "What percentage of Americans will be considered obese or overweight in 2030?",
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"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 268
},
{
"Title": "What will be Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer in 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1492/what-will-be-top500s-1-performing-supercomputer-as-a-multiple-of-the-500-performer-in-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 86
},
{
"Title": "Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/",
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"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "24%",
"# Forecasts": 231
},
{
"Title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/",
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"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "27%",
"# Forecasts": 183
},
{
"Title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/",
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"# Forecasts": 241
},
{
"Title": "Will the eventual consensus explanation of star KIC 8462852 variability be an intervening molecular cloud?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1497/will-the-eventual-consensus-explanation-of-star-kic-8462852-variability-be-an-intervening-molecular-cloud/",
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"# Forecasts": 53
},
{
"Title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?",
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"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "15%",
"# Forecasts": 279
},
{
"Title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/",
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"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "3%",
"# Forecasts": 130
},
{
"Title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "26%",
"# Forecasts": 183
},
{
"Title": "How many NASA \"space launch system\" (SLS) launches before 2030?",
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"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "Do humans have functionally important neurogenesis throughout their life?",
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"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "65%",
"# Forecasts": 131
},
{
"Title": "Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?",
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"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "8%",
"# Forecasts": 407
},
{
"Title": "When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?",
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"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 265
},
{
"Title": "Will most protons that currently make up Earth (and you) eventually decay?",
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"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "50%",
"# Forecasts": 64
},
{
"Title": "Will a third LIGO detector be built in India by 2027?",
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"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "50%",
"# Forecasts": 75
},
{
"Title": "When will the first cloned human be born?",
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"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 150
},
{
"Title": "Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk?",
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"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "73%",
"# Forecasts": 104
},
{
"Title": "3.6°C global warming by 2100?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1539/36c-global-warming-by-2100/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "31%",
"# Forecasts": 125
},
{
"Title": "Is non-theism (atheists and agnostics) growing globally?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1552/is-non-theism-atheists-and-agnostics-growing-globally/",
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"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 179
},
{
"Title": "The Rise and Fall of the Banana: Will the current main export cultivar, the Cavendish, be replaced by 2035?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1558/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-banana-will-the-current-main-export-cultivar-the-cavendish-be-replaced-by-2035/",
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"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "49%",
"# Forecasts": 123
},
{
"Title": "Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "55.00000000000001%",
"# Forecasts": 153
},
{
"Title": "What will the World's GDP be in 2028?",
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"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 128
},
{
"Title": "Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "25%",
"# Forecasts": 179
},
{
"Title": "Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "89%",
"# Forecasts": 396
},
{
"Title": "When will the first publicly traded company achieve a $10 trillion market capitalisation?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 118
},
{
"Title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
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"# Forecasts": 143
},
{
"Title": "Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1591/will-the-impact-of-the-effective-altruism-movement-be-picked-up-by-google-trends-in-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "80%",
"# Forecasts": 105
},
{
"Title": "What year will the 2˚C climate threshold be crossed?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1596/what-year-will-the-2c-climate-threshold-be-crossed/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 136
},
{
"Title": "Will Elon Musk (attempt to) go to Mars?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "30%",
"# Forecasts": 385
},
{
"Title": "The Top500's total sum in 2030 as a multiple of the total sum in 2015",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 126
},
{
"Title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/",
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"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "1%",
"# Forecasts": 139
},
{
"Title": "Is the Zuma satellite still in orbit?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "42%",
"# Forecasts": 116
},
{
"Title": "When will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars?",
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"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 123
},
{
"Title": "What will be the heaviest payload put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service at start of 2050?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1620/what-will-be-the-heaviest-payload-put-into-leo-by-a-launch-vehicle-that-is-in-service-at-start-of-2050/",
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"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the United States Food and Drug Administration before January 1 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1621/will-a-senolytic-therapy-be-approved-for-commercial-sale-by-the-united-states-food-and-drug-administration-before-january-1-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
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"# Forecasts": 177
},
{
"Title": "Will a mouse be confirmed to have lived for 2,500 days before 1 January 2035?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1624/will-a-mouse-be-confirmed-to-have-lived-for-2500-days-before-1-january-2035/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "50%",
"# Forecasts": 177
},
{
"Title": "By 1 January 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "20%",
"# Forecasts": 165
},
{
"Title": "Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "8%",
"# Forecasts": 224
},
{
"Title": "What will be the longest verified human lifespan on record on January 1 2050?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 172
},
{
"Title": "Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "5%",
"# Forecasts": 238
},
{
"Title": "What percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1630/what-percentage-of-us-residents-will-be-aged-100-years-or-older-on-january-1-2050/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 77
},
{
"Title": "Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "90%",
"# Forecasts": 216
},
{
"Title": "Will US income inequality increase by 2025?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "50%",
"# Forecasts": 212
},
{
"Title": "When will a crewed spacecraft enter interstellar space for the first time?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 181
},
{
"Title": "Will Alex Jones ever hold high Federal office in the United States before 2030?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "1%",
"# Forecasts": 221
},
{
"Title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?",
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{
"Title": "Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?",
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{
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{
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{
"Title": "A breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031?",
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{
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{
"Title": "Will any asteroid or comet have been mined in space for commercial purposes before 2030?",
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{
"Title": "Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?",
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{
"Title": "When will Reuters journalists Wa Lone and Kyaw Soe Oo be released from prison?",
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{
"Title": "If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?",
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{
"Title": "Will George R. R. Martin die before the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire is published?",
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{
"Title": "When will PHP die?",
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"Title": "Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?",
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"Title": "Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?",
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{
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{
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{
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{
"Title": "Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?",
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{
"Title": "Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030?",
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{
"Title": "Will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI in 2021?",
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{
"Title": "Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?",
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{
"Title": "Will any Member State leave the Eurozone by 2025?",
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{
"Title": "Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?",
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{
"Title": "What will be the highest level of annual GDP growth in the US before 2030?",
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{
"Title": "Will Nigeria's population exceed 400 million before 2050?",
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{
"Title": "When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?",
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{
"Title": "When will a robot poker player win a significant live (not online) competition?",
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{
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{
"Title": "A tech boom to surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more by 2024?",
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{
"Title": "What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?",
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{
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{
"Title": "Will Volkswagen Group produce fewer than 22 million electric vehicles by 2030?",
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{
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{
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{
"Title": "Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025?",
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{
"Title": "Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?",
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{
"Title": "Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income introduced in any EU country before 2041?",
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{
"Title": "Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?",
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{
"Title": "Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?",
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"Title": "Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated by 2050?",
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{
"Title": "Will Apollo 10's Lunar Module be recovered by 2050?",
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{
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{
"Title": "Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?",
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"Title": "When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 108
},
{
"Title": "Is the Collatz Conjecture true?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "95%",
"# Forecasts": 147
},
{
"Title": "Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "92%",
"# Forecasts": 77
},
{
"Title": "If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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{
"Title": "Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2807/will-the-uk-housing-market-crash-before-july-2023/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "15%",
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},
{
"Title": "If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2812/if-a-whole-human-brain-is-successfully-emulated-by-2100-what-is-the-maximum-number-of-humans-that-will-be-uploaded-in-any-5-year-period/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 108
},
{
"Title": "When will the first whole human brain be successfully emulated?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "In 2029, will the US have as many or fewer nuclear warheads than it did in 2019?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2817/us-having-fewer-nukes-in-2029-than-2019/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "70%",
"# Forecasts": 147
},
{
"Title": "When will NASA's SLS first launch a person to the Moon?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-first-launch-a-person-to-the-moon/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 111
},
{
"Title": "If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2820/if-the-us-does-not-pursue-nuclear-disarmament-how-many-nuclear-warheads-will-it-have-in-2029/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, \nhow much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2822/if-and-when-the-first-whole-human-brain-is-successfully-emulated-how-much-will-1-hour-of-subjective-run-time-cost/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 103
},
{
"Title": "Will there be another case of smallpox by the end of 2029?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2823/will-there-be-another-case-of-smallpox-by-the-end-of-2029/",
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"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "9%",
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},
{
"Title": "When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2898/when-the-first-company-reaches-a-10-trillion-market-cap-will-it-be-worth-at-least-double-what-it-was-the-year-before/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
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{
"Title": "Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "45%",
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},
{
"Title": "How many deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the year 2035?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2942/how-many-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-in-the-us-in-the-year-2035/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "When will the global adult literacy rate reach 95%?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2943/when-will-the-global-adult-literacy-rate-reach-95/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 91
},
{
"Title": "How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the end of 2023?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2944/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-the-end-of-2023/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 181
},
{
"Title": "How many biological humans will be alive on the 31st of December 2300, conditional on there being more than 500M?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2954/how-many-biological-humans-will-be-alive-on-the-31st-of-december-2300-conditional-on-there-being-more-than-500m/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "When will Elon Musk have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2955/when-will-elon-musk-have-any-device-such-as-a-brain-machine-interface-surgically-implanted-into-his-brain/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "In 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3019/in-2029-how-many-small-firearms-per-capita-will-there-be-in-the-usa-according-to-the-small-arms-survey/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 154
},
{
"Title": "When will an AI pass the laugh test?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 95
},
{
"Title": "Will the significant discrepancies in Hubble parameter determinations be resolved by 2030 within the ΛCDM standard cosmological model?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3021/will-the-significant-discrepancies-in-hubble-parameter-determinations-be-resolved-by-2030-within-the-%25CE%25BBcdm-standard-cosmological-model/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "50%",
"# Forecasts": 48
},
{
"Title": "If there is a biotechnological or bioengineered organism catastrophe this century, when will it happen?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3023/if-there-is-a-biotechnological-or-bioengineered-organism-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "When will the first human baby from stem cell-derived gametes be born?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 80
},
{
"Title": "When will the odds ratio of Metaculus' community prediction of the chance of AI catastrophe by 2100 either half or double from its value on 2019-08-21?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
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},
{
"Title": "Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3042/will-wildfires-destroy-a-total-exceeding-10mha-of-global-tree-cover-in-any-year-by-the-end-of-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
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},
{
"Title": "When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3044/when-will-any-country-have-a-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-of-at-least-100-years/",
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},
{
"Title": "When will the first organ from a non-primate be successfully transplanted into a human?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 99
},
{
"Title": "How many hours will the average American employee work per week in 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3054/how-many-hours-will-the-average-american-employee-work-per-week-in-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
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},
{
"Title": "When will a generative model produce a realistic 2-minute video, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3056/when-will-a-generative-model-produce-a-realistic-2-minute-video-at-a-256--256-resolution-or-better/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "When will there be a publicly listed clean meat company?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 179
},
{
"Title": "When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 123
},
{
"Title": "How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 120
},
{
"Title": "How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027, in millions of USD?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3065/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2027-in-millions-of-usd/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 94
},
{
"Title": "How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030, in millions of USD?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3077/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2030-in-millions-of-usd/",
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"Binary question?": false,
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},
{
"Title": "How many Starlink satellites will be in operation at the end of 2027?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3078/how-many-starlink-satellites-will-be-in-operation-at-the-end-of-2027/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 178
},
{
"Title": "When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3081/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-20-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 210
},
{
"Title": "When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3086/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-80-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 67
},
{
"Title": "When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3087/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-20-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 100
},
{
"Title": "When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3088/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-80-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 117
},
{
"Title": "What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3091/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 122
},
{
"Title": "What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2028?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3095/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2028/",
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"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2026?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3103/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2026/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 86
},
{
"Title": "What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2029?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3104/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2029/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "When will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours, before Sep 15 2025?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3106/when-will-a-discernible-coordinated-bitcoin-mining-pool-attain-50-of-the-hashing-power-for-24-hours-before-sep-15-2025/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 83
},
{
"Title": "How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3107/how-much-will-the-total-us-plant-based-milk-market-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023-in-millions-of-usd/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 85
},
{
"Title": "How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3108/how-much-will-the-total-us-plant-based-foods-market-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023-in-millions-of-usd/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 145
},
{
"Title": "Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before Sep 18th of 2024?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3109/will-general-electric-ge-file-for-chapter-7-or-chapter-11-bankruptcy-before-sep-18th-of-2024/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "25%",
"# Forecasts": 126
},
{
"Title": "Will Mars have a permanent population of 10,000 before the Moon does?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3112/will-mars-have-a-permanent-population-of-10000-before-the-moon-does/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "35%",
"# Forecasts": 216
},
{
"Title": "How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 126
},
{
"Title": "How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is between $8 and $20 per kg?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3115/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-between-8-and-20-per-kg/",
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"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 142
},
{
"Title": "Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "79%",
"# Forecasts": 138
},
{
"Title": "How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3120/how-many-publicly-traded-us-or-eu-based-plant-based-meat-producers-will-be-valued-at-1bn-or-more-on-october-4th-2023/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 71
},
{
"Title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 105
},
{
"Title": "Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3000 in any calendar year before (and including) 2031?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3124/will-us-non-overseas-contingency-operations-military-deaths-exceed-3000-in-any-calendar-year-before-and-including-2031/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "20%",
"# Forecasts": 91
},
{
"Title": "Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3125/will-the-united-states-continue-to-be-among-the-20-countries-with-the-largest-deterioration-in-state-stability-over-the-2019-2029-period-according-to-the-fragile-states-index/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "55.00000000000001%",
"# Forecasts": 46
},
{
"Title": "Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "10%",
"# Forecasts": 83
},
{
"Title": "When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 70
},
{
"Title": "How much will be estimated to have been invested by VCs in U.S.-based plant-based meat startups, in millions of USD, in the calendar year 2022?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3138/how-much-will-be-estimated-to-have-been-invested-by-vcs-in-us-based-plant-based-meat-startups-in-millions-of-usd-in-the-calendar-year-2022/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 122
},
{
"Title": "When will a genetic change cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 87
},
{
"Title": "When will 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3141/when-will-100-people-or-more-be-in-space-or-on-any-astronomical-body-other-than-earth-simultaneously/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 206
},
{
"Title": "By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 217
},
{
"Title": "What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2025?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3144/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2025/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 78
},
{
"Title": "Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2035?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3150/will-no-non-test-nuclear-weapons-be-detonated-by-start-of-2035/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "79%",
"# Forecasts": 172
},
{
"Title": "How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3153/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-greater-than-20-per-kg/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 125
},
{
"Title": "If DNA alterations continue to require FDA approval by default, how many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be determined as safe to eat, by the end of July 2025?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3155/if-dna-alterations-continue-to-require-fda-approval-by-default-how-many-intentionally-genomic-dna-altered-animals-will-be-determined-as-safe-to-eat-by-the-end-of-july-2025/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 62
},
{
"Title": "If there is a no-deal Brexit, what will be the average yearly % GDP growth of the UK in the subsequent five years?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3156/if-there-is-a-no-deal-brexit-what-will-be-the-average-yearly--gdp-growth-of-the-uk-in-the-subsequent-five-years/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 33
},
{
"Title": "Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3158/will-the-first-extraterrestrial-life-forms-we-encounter-be-carbon-based/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "70%",
"# Forecasts": 120
},
{
"Title": "Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3159/will-wework-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-1-january-2025/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "67%",
"# Forecasts": 372
},
{
"Title": "What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3191/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 73
},
{
"Title": "When will the milk of cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless be for sale in the United States?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3192/when-will-the-milk-of-cows-whose-dna-is-intentionally-altered-to-be-hornless-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 82
},
{
"Title": "If DNA alterations continue to require approval by default, when will the FDA find at least ten genetically edited animals as safe to eat?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3201/if-dna-alterations-continue-to-require-approval-by-default-when-will-the-fda-find-at-least-ten-genetically-edited-animals-as-safe-to-eat/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 84
},
{
"Title": "When will beef for human consumption, from cattle genetically edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3202/when-will-beef-for-human-consumption-from-cattle-genetically-edited-to-carry-a-copy-of-the-sry-gene-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 72
},
{
"Title": "What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3205/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 91
},
{
"Title": "Who will first land a person on Mars?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 224
},
{
"Title": "What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 7th Assessment Report?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3233/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-7th-assessment-report/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 76
},
{
"Title": "Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until 1 January 2025?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3238/will-turkey-be-a-nato-member-continuously-until-1-january-2025/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "80%",
"# Forecasts": 176
},
{
"Title": "When will a clean meat flavoring product be approved for human consumption?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3239/when-will-a-clean-meat-flavoring-product-be-approved-for-human-consumption/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 90
},
{
"Title": "Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3241/will-the-iau-rework-its-definition-of-planetary-status-by-jan-1-2025/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "25%",
"# Forecasts": 65
},
{
"Title": "Will Robert Caro's fifth and final volume of his Lyndon Johnson biography be published during his lifetime?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3244/will-robert-caros-fifth-and-final-volume-of-his-lyndon-johnson-biography-be-published-during-his-lifetime/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "53%",
"# Forecasts": 85
},
{
"Title": "What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3245/what-will-be-the-us-average-weekly-hours-of-all-employees-total-non-farm-private-in-october-2025/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 128
},
{
"Title": "In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced annually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3246/in-what-year-will-the-total-number-of-hen-eggs-produced-annually-in-the-us-be-100-billion-or-less/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 86
},
{
"Title": "How many billions of hen eggs will be produced in the U.S. in the year ending in November 2023?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3247/how-many-billions-of-hen-eggs-will-be-produced-in-the-us-in-the-year-ending-in-november-2023/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 146
},
{
"Title": "How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3248/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2022-2024-period/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 121
},
{
"Title": "Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon, if the feat is achieved by the end of 2025?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3251/will-israel-be-the-fourth-country-to-soft-land-on-the-moon-if-the-feat-is-achieved-by-the-end-of-2025/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "30%",
"# Forecasts": 124
},
{
"Title": "Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3252/will-the-brexit-party-win-any-seats-at-the-next-uk-general-election/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "20%",
"# Forecasts": 125
},
{
"Title": "When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 sites?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3271/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-70-sites/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 174
},
{
"Title": "When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 142
},
{
"Title": "When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3275/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-130-sites/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 88
},
{
"Title": "What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3277/what-will-be-the-average-overall-global-health-security-index-score-for-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 28
},
{
"Title": "How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3289/how-many-gene-edited-babies-will-have-been-born-worldwide-by-the-end-of-2029/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 118
},
{
"Title": "What fraction of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3290/what-fraction-of-babies-born-in-the-us-in-2029-will-have-been-conceived-in-vitro/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 72
},
{
"Title": "How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2028 to 2030 period?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3324/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2028-to-2030-period/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 61
},
{
"Title": "How many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3325/how-many-billions-of-poultry-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030-according-to-fao-estimates/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 87
},
{
"Title": "When will most eggs produced in the USA be sexed before hatching?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 86
},
{
"Title": "If Sanders becomes president in 2020, how many unsheltered homeless people will there be in the US at the end of his term?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3328/if-sanders-becomes-president-in-2020-how-many-unsheltered-homeless-people-will-there-be-in-the-us-at-the-end-of-his-term/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 97
},
{
"Title": "Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-emulated-before-2200/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "50%",
"# Forecasts": 62
},
{
"Title": "When will the first person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or uploaded?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3331/when-will-the-first-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-uploaded/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 96
},
{
"Title": "Will James Bedford be revived or emulated before 2200?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3332/will-james-bedford-be-revived-or-emulated-before-2200/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "5%",
"# Forecasts": 66
},
{
"Title": "When will the number of people in cryopreservation preserved before 2019 fall to less than 50% of the current value?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3333/when-will-the-number-of-people-in-cryopreservation-preserved-before-2019-fall-to-less-than-50-of-the-current-value/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 59
},
{
"Title": "When will a major U.S. supermarket sell “no-kill eggs” in at least 25 states?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3335/when-will-a-major-us-supermarket-sell-no-kill-eggs-in-at-least-25-states/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 78
},
{
"Title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 186
},
{
"Title": "When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3338/when-will-hong-kong-stop-being-a-special-administrative-region-of-china/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 185
},
{
"Title": "If Labour wins the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3340/if-labour-wins-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 11
},
{
"Title": "If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3341/if-conservatives-win-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 161
},
{
"Title": "How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 127
},
{
"Title": "What will be the exponent of the fastest known polynomial-time matrix multiplication algorithm in 2029?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3343/what-will-be-the-exponent-of-the-fastest-known-polynomial-time-matrix-multiplication-algorithm-in-2029/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 107
},
{
"Title": "What the percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3344/what-the-percentage-of-egg-laying-hens-will-be-cage-free-in-the-us-in-june-2025/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 120
},
{
"Title": "Will Guinea Worm be eradicated by the end of 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3351/will-guinea-worm-be-eradicated-by-the-end-of-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "60%",
"# Forecasts": 57
},
{
"Title": "When will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of Polio?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3353/when-will-the-who-certify-the-worldwide-eradication-of-polio/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 94
},
{
"Title": "What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3357/what-will-the-mean-of-the-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-of-the-all-500-supercomputers-in-the-top500-be-in-the-three-year-period-ending-in-november-2023/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 110
},
{
"Title": "Will there be a vegetarian U.S. president by the end of 2036?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3359/will-there-be-a-vegetarian-us-president-by-the-end-of-2036/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "14.000000000000002%",
"# Forecasts": 207
},
{
"Title": "Will ≥8% of U.S. adults self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before 2036?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3360/will-8-of-us-adults-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-before-2036/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "79%",
"# Forecasts": 220
},
{
"Title": "Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3361/will-the-mean-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-in-the-top500-decline-each-3-year-period-from-2025-to-2034/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "49%",
"# Forecasts": 38
},
{
"Title": "Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3364/will-metaculus-or-a-licensed-derivative-be-operated-as-a-public-site-by-a-publicly-traded-company-by-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "16%",
"# Forecasts": 57
},
{
"Title": "What will SpaceX be worth by 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 370
},
{
"Title": "By the end of 2029, will the European Union require commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3371/by-the-end-of-2029-will-the-european-union-require-commercially-farmed-fish-to-be-stunned-before-being-slaughtered/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "25%",
"# Forecasts": 71
},
{
"Title": "How many countries will be awarded a B or better for farm animal welfare protection by to the Animal Protection Index by end of 2022?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3373/how-many-countries-will-be-awarded-a-b-or-better-for-farm-animal-welfare-protection-by-to-the-animal-protection-index-by-end-of-2022/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 23
},
{
"Title": "Will the either the USA or China improve on their score on an the Animal Protection Index indicator for recognition of animal sentience, by the end 2022?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3374/will-the-either-the-usa-or-china-improve-on-their-score-on-an-the-animal-protection-index-indicator-for-recognition-of-animal-sentience-by-the-end-2022/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "34%",
"# Forecasts": 28
},
{
"Title": "When will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue from edible insect product sales alone, in a single year?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3375/when-will-a-company-in-any-country-generate-50m-revenue-from-edible-insect-product-sales-alone-in-a-single-year/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 84
},
{
"Title": "When will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3380/when-will-at-least-750-companies-pledge-to-maintain-a-supply-chain-consistent-with-the-current-basic-global-animal-partnership-standards-for-broiler-chickens-by-end-of-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 89
},
{
"Title": "When will 5,000 companies worldwide pledge to remove cages from their egg supply chains?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3381/when-will-5000-companies-worldwide-pledge-to-remove-cages-from-their-egg-supply-chains/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 74
},
{
"Title": "What will the earliest preservation date of any resuscitated cryonics patient be?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 86
},
{
"Title": "What will the largest number of digits of π to have been computed be, by the end of 2025?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3384/what-will-the-largest-number-of-digits-of-%25CF%2580-to-have-been-computed-be-by-the-end-of-2025/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 171
},
{
"Title": "Will humanity maintain a continuous off-Earth presence until 2050?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3385/will-humanity-maintain-a-continuous-off-earth-presence-until-2050/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "75%",
"# Forecasts": 219
},
{
"Title": "Will a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3386/will-a-us-consumer-be-unable-to-purchase-a-cavendish-banana-at-a-major-us-grocery-chain-on-2029-12-31/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "24%",
"# Forecasts": 69
},
{
"Title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegan diet in 2028?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3388/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegan-diet-in-2028/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 213
},
{
"Title": "What percentage of fish produced worldwide will be stunned prior to slaughter, in the first year in which credible estimates are published in the five year period starting in 2027",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3389/what-percentage-of-fish-produced-worldwide-will-be-stunned-prior-to-slaughter-in-the-first-year-in-which-credible-estimates-are-published-in-the-five-year-period-starting-in-2027/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 43
},
{
"Title": "Will DNA testing vindicate Jeanne Calment as the oldest recorded person in history?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3393/will-dna-testing-vindicate-jeanne-calment-as-the-oldest-recorded-person-in-history/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "40%",
"# Forecasts": 145
},
{
"Title": "Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater reduction in the national rate of obesity for 3 consecutive years before 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/large-obesity-drop-in-oecd-country-by-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "15%",
"# Forecasts": 166
},
{
"Title": "When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3399/when-will-the-last-metaculus-question-resolution-occur/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 94
},
{
"Title": "Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3409/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2020-to-2023-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "11%",
"# Forecasts": 87
},
{
"Title": "Will our global atmospheric CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3410/will-our-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-over-the-2024-to-2027-period-be-on-path-to-limit-warming-to-14c-by-mid-century/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "8%",
"# Forecasts": 79
},
{
"Title": "How many millions of pigs will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3414/how-many-millions-of-pigs-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 92
},
{
"Title": "Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "10%",
"# Forecasts": 418
},
{
"Title": "Will the next President of the United States be impeached?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/will-the-next-president-of-the-united-states-be-impeached/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "9%",
"# Forecasts": 208
},
{
"Title": "In the year 2028, how many tonnes of insect protein will be used as animal feed for livestock, poultry and fish in Europe?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3421/in-the-year-2028-how-many-tonnes-of-insect-protein-will-be-used-as-animal-feed-for-livestock-poultry-and-fish-in-europe/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 60
},
{
"Title": "On December 1st, 2023 how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3422/on-december-1st-2023-how-many-companies-worldwide-will-pledge-uphold-gap-standards-for-broiler-chickens-raised-for-meat/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 121
},
{
"Title": "Will 100 gigagrams of sulphur be injected into the atmosphere, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3429/will-100-gigagrams-of-sulphur-be-injected-into-the-atmosphere-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "5%",
"# Forecasts": 73
},
{
"Title": "Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3431/will-the-dai-stablecoin-maintain-a-value-of-roughly-1-until-july-2023/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "60%",
"# Forecasts": 102
},
{
"Title": "Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3433/will-an-ocean-be-fertilised-with-at-least-50-tonnes-of-iron-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2023/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "21%",
"# Forecasts": 99
},
{
"Title": "Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "55.00000000000001%",
"# Forecasts": 284
},
{
"Title": "Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3445/will-kim-jong-un-still-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-north-korea-on-1-january-2022/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "90%",
"# Forecasts": 1208
},
{
"Title": "When will two or more supermarkets sell products made of ≥20% clean fish in their physical retail stores in at least 25 U.S. states?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3447/when-will-two-or-more-supermarkets-sell-products-made-of-20-clean-fish-in-their-physical-retail-stores-in-at-least-25-us-states/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 81
},
{
"Title": "How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3452/how-much-forest-coverage-loss-will-occur-in-brazil-over-the-three-year-period-starting-from-2020/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 147
},
{
"Title": "What is the largest amount of iron that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3457/what-is-the-largest-amount-of-iron-that-will-be-used-to-fertilise-an-ocean-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2026/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 70
},
{
"Title": "Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3458/will-there-be-a-culturally-significant-development-in-aging-research-by-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "68%",
"# Forecasts": 126
},
{
"Title": "Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3460/will-there-be-at-least-200-companies-developing-technologies-to-defeat-aging-by-2025/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "88%",
"# Forecasts": 125
},
{
"Title": "At what point will at least ten technologies listed on \"The Rejuvenation Roadmap\" be released to the public?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3461/at-what-point-will-at-least-ten-technologies-listed-on-the-rejuvenation-roadmap-be-released-to-the-public/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 72
},
{
"Title": "Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3469/will-the-united-states-institute-a-military-draft-by-2025/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "2%",
"# Forecasts": 133
},
{
"Title": "When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3474/when-will-queen-elizabeth-ii-cease-to-be-queen-of-the-united-kingdom/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 306
},
{
"Title": "If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3477/if-human-level-artificial-intelligence-is-developed-will-world-gdp-grow-by-at-least-300-in-any-of-the-subsequent-15-years/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "77%",
"# Forecasts": 104
},
{
"Title": "How many patients will be in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3478/how-many-patients-will-be-in-cryonic-suspension-at-the-cryonics-institute-in-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 90
},
{
"Title": "When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 407
},
{
"Title": "Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "91%",
"# Forecasts": 294
},
{
"Title": "Will EQRx get at least one drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3507/will-eqrx-get-at-least-one-drug-approved-by-the-fda-before-the-end-of-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "40%",
"# Forecasts": 46
},
{
"Title": "When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3508/when-will-trikafta-become-available-for-cystic-fibrosis-patients-on-the-nhs-england/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 64
},
{
"Title": "When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 143
},
{
"Title": "Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "8%",
"# Forecasts": 157
},
{
"Title": "When will we be able to predict at least 10% of variance in Big Five agreeableness based on genetic information alone?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3518/when-will-we-be-able-to-predict-at-least-10-of-variance-in-big-five-agreeableness-based-on-genetic-information-alone/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 39
},
{
"Title": "One Million Martian Residents by 2075?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "2%",
"# Forecasts": 295
},
{
"Title": "What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3520/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2020-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 121
},
{
"Title": "What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3521/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 120
},
{
"Title": "When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3522/when-will-the-doomsday-clock-reach-midnight/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 94
},
{
"Title": "Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3528/will-a-geoengineering-act-of-congress-become-us-federal-law-by-the-end-of-2024/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "10%",
"# Forecasts": 38
},
{
"Title": "Will the star Betelgeuse be observed to go supernova before 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "1%",
"# Forecasts": 81
},
{
"Title": "How many geoengineering international treaties will be listed on the World Legal Information Institute's database at the end of 2024?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3535/how-many-geoengineering-international-treaties-will-be-listed-on-the-world-legal-information-institutes-database-at-the-end-of-2024/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 77
},
{
"Title": "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 120
},
{
"Title": "What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3581/what-will-the-global-weighted-average-levelized-cost-of-energy-of-onshore-wind-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 105
},
{
"Title": "What will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide, over the 2020 to 2022 period?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3582/what-will-the-average-growth-rate-be-of-total-renewable-energy-produced-worldwide-over-the-2020-to-2022-period/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 130
},
{
"Title": "Will Stacey Abrams be elected president in or before the 2040 election?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3588/will-stacey-abrams-be-elected-president-in-or-before-the-2040-election/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "2%",
"# Forecasts": 118
},
{
"Title": "When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 52
},
{
"Title": "When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3592/ev-battery-storage-costs/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 70
},
{
"Title": "Will renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3593/will-renewable-energy-contribute-2500-or-less-to-global-electricity-production-in-the-calendar-year-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "11%",
"# Forecasts": 99
},
{
"Title": "Will Iowa host another \"first in the nation\" Democratic caucus by the end of 2028?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3600/will-iowa-host-another-first-in-the-nation-democratic-caucus-by-the-end-of-2028/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "65%",
"# Forecasts": 95
},
{
"Title": "Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "15%",
"# Forecasts": 126
},
{
"Title": "Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3606/will-a-wealth-tax-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "10%",
"# Forecasts": 129
},
{
"Title": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "90%",
"# Forecasts": 71
},
{
"Title": "Will a new amendment to the US Constitution be ratified by 2050?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3616/will-a-new-amendment-to-the-us-constitution-be-ratified-by-2050/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "60%",
"# Forecasts": 233
},
{
"Title": "Will the US supreme court change size by 2050?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3617/will-the-us-supreme-court-change-size-by-2050/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "46%",
"# Forecasts": 195
},
{
"Title": "When will the United States admit a new state?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3618/when-will-the-united-states-admit-a-new-state/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 154
},
{
"Title": "How many nations will there be in the United Nations by 2050?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 58
},
{
"Title": "Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "15%",
"# Forecasts": 220
},
{
"Title": "Will a third party win a Senate election in the United States by 2050?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "55.00000000000001%",
"# Forecasts": 84
},
{
"Title": "What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3622/what-will-the-harvard-admit-rate-be-for-the-undergraduate-class-of-2029/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 215
},
{
"Title": "When will the English Wikipedia have 10 million articles?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3623/when-will-the-english-wikipedia-have-10-million-articles/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 87
},
{
"Title": "What will the world real GDP growth rate be in 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3626/what-will-the-world-real-gdp-growth-rate-be-in-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 111
},
{
"Title": "Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3629/will-the-national-popular-vote-interstate-compact-reach-majority-in-the-electoral-college-before-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
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{
"Title": "Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?",
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{
"Title": "Longbets series: By 2030, will commercial passengers routinely fly in pilotless planes?",
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{
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"Title": "Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?",
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{
"Title": "How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?",
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{
"Title": "How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?",
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{
"Title": "Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?",
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{
"Title": "If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?",
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{
"Title": "When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?",
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{
"Title": "Are we on path for IPCC's 'middle-of-the-road' scenario for the deployment of renewables?",
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{
"Title": "Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets?",
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{
"Title": "How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally, in the calendar year 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?",
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{
"Title": "Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?",
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{
"Title": "Before the end of 2024 will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a laboratory?",
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{
"Title": "Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?",
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{
"Title": "When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?",
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{
"Title": "When will an AI achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test?",
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{
"Title": "What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?",
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{
"Title": "What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?",
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{
"Title": "Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?",
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},
{
"Title": "How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of Mainland China on April the 27th?",
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{
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{
"Title": "When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?",
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{
"Title": "When will space mining be profitable?",
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"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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{
"Title": "When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?",
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{
"Title": "How many communist states will there be in 2050?",
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},
{
"Title": "Will bitcoins thought to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto be spent by 2075-04-05?",
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"# Forecasts": 101
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{
"Title": "Will it turn out that the Keto diet is both safe and has health benefits for some identified and significant population of people?",
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{
"Title": "Will the global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be in line with the pathway to limit warming to 2.0°C by mid-century, over the 2024 to 2027 period?",
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"# Forecasts": 54
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{
"Title": "When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?",
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"Binary question?": false,
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{
"Title": "Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030?",
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"Binary question?": true,
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{
"Title": "When will the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time record high close after the Coronavirus Crash of February 2020?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 766
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{
"Title": "How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?",
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"Percentage": "none",
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{
"Title": "When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?",
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{
"Title": "Will any sovereign government issue a formal apology for their treatment of farm animals by 2200?",
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"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "85%",
"# Forecasts": 100
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{
"Title": "Will reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200?",
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{
"Title": "Will a democratic nation whose economy transitions from capitalist to market socialist sustain adequate economic growth?",
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"Percentage": "45%",
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{
"Title": "What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close?",
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{
"Title": "Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?",
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"Binary question?": true,
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{
"Title": "If Bernie Sanders becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in the US in 2024?",
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{
"Title": "If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in the US in 2024?",
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{
"Title": "Will Valve release a game before 2030 with 3 in the Title?",
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{
"Title": "When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?",
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},
{
"Title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?",
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},
{
"Title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?",
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{
"Title": "When will the next Qatari general election be held?",
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{
"Title": "What will North Korea's merchandise trade as a % of GDP be in 2045 per the most recent World Bank data?",
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{
"Title": "Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?",
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{
"Title": "When will Nintendo release a console capable of 4K output?",
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{
"Title": "Will a reliable poll of physicists reveal that a majority of those polled accept the many-worlds interpretation by 2050?",
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},
{
"Title": "Will the USD still reign supreme by 2050?",
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{
"Title": "Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?",
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},
{
"Title": "When will a currently unknown social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide?",
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},
{
"Title": "If there is a WW3, what longitude will it start in?",
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},
{
"Title": "If there is a WW3, what latitude will it start in?",
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{
"Title": "Will there turn out to be widespread fossils of algae and lichens on Mars?",
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{
"Title": "When will the United Kingdom apply to rejoin the EU?",
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{
"Title": "When will humanity use more than one millionth of the sun's energy output?",
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{
"Title": "How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?",
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{
"Title": "When will China legalise same-sex marriage?",
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{
"Title": "When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?",
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{
"Title": "What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?",
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{
"Title": "What will the peak population of Antarctica be by 2075?",
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{
"Title": "Will the next US recession turn into a depression?",
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"Binary question?": true,
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{
"Title": "When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?",
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"Title": "Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?",
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{
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"Title": "How many years will caloric restriction be demonstrated to add to one's natural lifespan?",
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{
"Title": "If Donald Trump is reelected president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in the US in 2024?",
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{
"Title": "Assuming some humans are alive, what will be the birthdate of the oldest living human on January 1st 2200?",
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{
"Title": "Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?",
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{
"Title": "Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?",
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{
"Title": "After an AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligence?",
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{
"Title": "What will be the first year during which most deaths are from non-disease related causes and fewer than 1% of humans die?",
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{
"Title": "Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?",
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"Title": "When will a human chess player reach a FIDE rating of 2900?",
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{
"Title": "What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?",
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{
"Title": "Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century?",
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{
"Title": "Will Stephen Wolfram or his co-authors, Jonathan Gorard and Max Piskunov, receive the Nobel prize in physics before the end of 2035?",
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{
"Title": "When will the seasonally adjusted atmospheric concentration of C02 be lower than the same time in the previous year?",
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"Title": "Will the number of foreign nationals in Mainland China fall between 2010 and 2030?",
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{
"Title": "How many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use by 2070?",
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{
"Title": "What will be the mean expected lifespan gain from one year of the TRIIM-X trial, as measured by the epigenetic clock GrimAge?",
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{
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"Title": "When will there be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers?",
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"Title": "How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?",
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"Title": "How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?",
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{
"Title": "Will NAD+ boosters be shown in a systematic review to increase human lifespan by >=5% by 2030?",
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{
"Title": "Which Artemis Moon Mission landing system will first land a person on the moon?",
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{
"Title": "Longbets series: By 2040 will the percentage of college-aged U.S. citizens who are attending postsecondary educational institutions in the United States drop at least 50% from the level in 2011?",
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{
"Title": "How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2031?",
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{
"Title": "What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040?",
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{
"Title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?",
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{
"Title": "Will the Harvard endowment be larger in 2119 than in 2019?",
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"Title": "Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?",
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"Title": "What is the greatest number of people who, for non-medical purposes, use a newly discovered drug at any year between 2021 and 2070?",
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{
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"Title": "If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?",
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"Title": "What rank will the United States be on the inequality adjusted human development index in 2035?",
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"Title": "What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?",
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"Title": "What will be the highest value of the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) before 2030?",
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"Title": "When will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic?",
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"Title": "When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?",
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"Title": "Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?",
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{
"Title": "If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?",
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{
"Title": "When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?",
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{
"Title": "What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?",
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{
"Title": "How long would humanity take to rebound from a global catastrophe?",
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"Binary question?": false,
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{
"Title": "How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?",
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{
"Title": "When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operations?",
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{
"Title": "Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?",
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{
"Title": "Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/",
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"# Forecasts": 106
},
{
"Title": "Will there be fewer Kea parrots in 2030 than in 2020?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4544/will-there-be-fewer-kea-parrots-in-2030-than-in-2020/",
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"Binary question?": true,
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{
"Title": "Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4549/will-george-church-receive-a-nobel-prize-in-any-category-before-the-end-of-2035/",
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"Percentage": "10%",
"# Forecasts": 29
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{
"Title": "When will a technology replace screens?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4577/when-will-a-technology-replace-screens/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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{
"Title": "What % of money held in all US DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4584/what--of-money-held-in-all-us-dafs-will-be-expropriated-by-2100/",
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"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4585/what-annual-real-return-will-the-global-stock-market-realize-2022-2031/",
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"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 98
},
{
"Title": "If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended by 2024?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4586/if-biden-becomes-president-will-the-sentencing-disparity-between-crack-and-powder-cocaine-be-ended-by-2024/",
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"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "60%",
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{
"Title": "When will Croatia adopt the euro?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4587/when-will-croatia-adopt-the-euro/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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{
"Title": "When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?",
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{
"Title": "When will we have a new Pope?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "In 2024, what percentage of surveyed Americans will report say that conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are \"very strong\"?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4608/in-2024-what-percentage-of-surveyed-americans-will-report-say-that-conflicts-between-democrats-and-republicans-are-very-strong/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
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{
"Title": "When will directly removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere be economically feasible?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4614/when-will-directly-removing-carbon-dioxide-from-the-atmosphere-be-economically-feasible/",
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{
"Title": "What annual real return will the S&P 500 realize 2022-2031?",
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{
"Title": "Will US life expectancy at birth for both sexes fall below 75 years before 2040?",
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},
{
"Title": "Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4628/will-one-of-givewells-2019-top-charities-be-estimated-as-the-most-cost-effective-charity-in-2031/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
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"# Forecasts": 40
},
{
"Title": "Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4630/will-metaculus-inc-host-a-prediction-market-prior-to-2024/",
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"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "30%",
"# Forecasts": 50
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{
"Title": "Will oil consumption over the 2020-2025 period be lower than in 2019?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4633/oil-consumption-rebounds-no-sooner-than-2026/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "30%",
"# Forecasts": 145
},
{
"Title": "If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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{
"Title": "If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
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{
"Title": "What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?",
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"Binary question?": false,
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{
"Title": "When will Ninja first lose the top spot as the most followed account on Twitch?",
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"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "Will the XENON1T experiment soon report a detection of dark matter or other new physics?",
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"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "30%",
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{
"Title": "When will the Chinese state have collected 1 billion unique genomes from their population?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4676/when-will-the-chinese-state-have-collected-1-billion-unique-genomes-from-their-population/",
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"Percentage": "none",
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{
"Title": "In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "70%",
"# Forecasts": 25
},
{
"Title": "Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4678/will-at-least-one-us-state-secede-from-the-union-before-31-december-2030/",
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"Percentage": "3%",
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},
{
"Title": "When will the population size of India surpass the population size of China?",
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"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 186
},
{
"Title": "What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Donald Trump is reelected president?",
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"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "When will The Boring Company tunnel faster than a snail?",
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"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 60
},
{
"Title": "What will Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of US$?",
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"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 110
},
{
"Title": "What will be the total expenditures of the United Nations System in 2050?",
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"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 12
},
{
"Title": "What percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric by 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4701/what-percentage-of-vehicles-on-us-roads-will-be-fully-electric-by-2030/",
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"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 47
},
{
"Title": "When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?",
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"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 70
},
{
"Title": "When will US auto manufacturing recover to 80% of pre-COVID-19 production levels?",
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"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "59%",
"# Forecasts": 520
},
{
"Title": "When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4737/when-will-the-covid-19-epidemic-subside-in-russia/",
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"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 224
},
{
"Title": "Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "44%",
"# Forecasts": 281
},
{
"Title": "Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?",
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"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "5%",
"# Forecasts": 134
},
{
"Title": "Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "60%",
"# Forecasts": 20
},
{
"Title": "Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?",
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"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "2%",
"# Forecasts": 60
},
{
"Title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/",
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"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "1%",
"# Forecasts": 1167
},
{
"Title": "Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?",
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"Binary question?": true,
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"# Forecasts": 107
},
{
"Title": "Will Richard Spencer receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4775/will-richard-spencer-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/",
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"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "1%",
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{
"Title": "Will Charles Murray receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "1%",
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},
{
"Title": "Will more than two nuclear weapons in total have been detonated as an act of war by 2050?",
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"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "20%",
"# Forecasts": 84
},
{
"Title": "While cryopreservation using fixatives is available, how many times more likely will someone be to be revived by 2200 if they are cryopreserved using fixatives than without?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4780/while-cryopreservation-using-fixatives-is-available-how-many-times-more-likely-will-someone-be-to-be-revived-by-2200-if-they-are-cryopreserved-using-fixatives-than-without/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
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"# Forecasts": 368
},
{
"Title": "Will James Lindsay receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?",
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"Binary question?": true,
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},
{
"Title": "What percentage of people cryopreserved between 2020 and 2050 will be revived by 2200?",
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},
{
"Title": "Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "70%",
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},
{
"Title": "When will a universal flu vaccine be available?",
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"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "What will the mass of the next fundamental particle to be discovered be, in eV?",
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},
{
"Title": "How many states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045?",
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"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030?",
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},
{
"Title": "When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?",
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},
{
"Title": "How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?",
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},
{
"Title": "As of July 1st, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?",
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},
{
"Title": "Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?",
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"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "71%",
"# Forecasts": 476
},
{
"Title": "Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online?",
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"Binary question?": true,
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},
{
"Title": "Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4826/will-any-wirecard-executive-receive-a-custodial-sentence-for-their-involvement-in-the-wirecard-collapse/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
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"Percentage": "65%",
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},
{
"Title": "What will the global fertility rate be in 2050?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
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},
{
"Title": "When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 213
},
{
"Title": "When will the VIX index fall below 20?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4833/when-will-the-vix-index-fall-below-20/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "When will the VIX index climb above 50?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4834/when-will-the-vix-index-climb-above-50/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
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},
{
"Title": "Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?",
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"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "70%",
"# Forecasts": 95
},
{
"Title": "When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?",
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"Binary question?": false,
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},
{
"Title": "When will virtual reality headset sales exceed 10 million units per year?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4845/when-will-virtual-reality-headset-sales-exceed-10-million-units-per-year/",
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"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 35
},
{
"Title": "When will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published?",
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"Title": "Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in 2025?",
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"Title": "Longbets series: Will slaughterhouses be banned in the United Kingdom by 2050.",
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"Title": "How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?",
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"Title": "What will China's human development index (HDI) score be in 2030?",
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"Title": "Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?",
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{
"Title": "What will the US police-to-prison spending ratio be in 2030?",
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"Title": "When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?",
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"Title": "Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?",
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"Title": "Who will win the 'worm wars'?",
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"Title": "How many charities will Charity Entrepreneurship help launch in 2021?",
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{
"Title": "When will Charity Entrepreneurship help create a new GiveWell top charity?",
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"Title": "Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?",
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"Title": "Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?",
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"Title": "Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints allow same-sex marriage by 2030?",
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{
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"Title": "When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?",
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"Title": "Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?",
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"Title": "Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?",
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"Title": "Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?",
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"Title": "When will the first baby be born away from Earth?",
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"Title": "When will One Piece end?",
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"Title": "When will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to sell and implant a brain-machine interface device into general consumers?",
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"Title": "What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030?",
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"Title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030?",
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"Title": "Will someone report to have received a hemispherectomy for the purpose of life extension before 2100?",
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"Title": "What will be the monthly average number of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?",
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"Title": "When will a human with no biological feet run 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds?",
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"Title": "If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?",
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"Title": "Will a high profile criminal investigation take down a \"hidden website\" on the Tor Network during 2021?",
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"Title": "What will be the largest CME during Solar Cycle 25 (in kinetic energy)?",
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"Title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?",
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"Title": "If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?",
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"Title": "Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?",
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"Title": "Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?",
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"Title": "What will be the first year when world real GDP exceeds 130% of any prior year?",
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"Title": "Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?",
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"Title": "Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?",
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"Title": "Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?",
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"Title": "If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?",
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"Title": "When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?",
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{
"Title": "Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?",
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{
"Title": "When will Bitcoin lose its position as market dominant cryptocurrency?",
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"Title": "When will Amazon deliver some products by drone?",
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{
"Title": "When will the first human head transplant occur?",
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{
"Title": "Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030?",
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{
"Title": "Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?",
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{
"Title": "How many parameters (in billions) is needed to achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?",
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{
"Title": "Will another paper authored by Phil Rushton be retracted before 2022?",
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{
"Title": "[Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?",
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{
"Title": "Average S&P 500 return in the 2020s?",
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{
"Title": "How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?",
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{
"Title": "Will AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles?",
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{
"Title": "Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?",
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{
"Title": "Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "2%",
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{
"Title": "Will the cover of the 2022 IKEA Catalogue feature a human?",
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{
"Title": "What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?",
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{
"Title": "Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?",
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{
"Title": "When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?",
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{
"Title": "How big will be the first crew sent to Mars?",
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{
"Title": "When will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis?",
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{
"Title": "What is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active?",
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{
"Title": "What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?",
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{
"Title": "When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?",
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{
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{
"Title": "When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?",
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{
"Title": "If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the \"red button\" be pressed?",
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{
"Title": "Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?",
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{
"Title": "Will \"best practice\" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?",
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{
"Title": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?",
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{
"Title": "Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?",
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{
"Title": "Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?",
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{
"Title": "Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?",
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"Title": "Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?",
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{
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{
"Title": "Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?",
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"Title": "What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?",
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{
"Title": "Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?",
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"Title": "When will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people?",
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"Title": "Will there be a complete 4 year interval by 2050 in which world output doubles?",
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{
"Title": "Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?",
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{
"Title": "Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?",
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{
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{
"Title": "Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?",
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{
"Title": "Will Stripe reach a valuation of $1 trillion before 2027?",
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{
"Title": "When will Winifred Wagner's correspondence with Adolph Hitler be published?",
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{
"Title": "Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?",
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{
"Title": "Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before the end of its term on 31st October 2024?",
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{
"Title": "Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?",
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{
"Title": "How much will interest in machine translation grow in 2021?",
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{
"Title": "When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?",
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"Title": "When will be the next S&P 500 correction?",
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"Title": "Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?",
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{
"Title": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?",
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{
"Title": "Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?",
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{
"Title": "Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?",
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"Title": "Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 18
},
{
"Title": "When will the GDP of Mars exceed that of Earth?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 71
},
{
"Title": "Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5509/detection-of-phosphine-in-venus-atmosphere/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "16%",
"# Forecasts": 108
},
{
"Title": "Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5511/amc-bankruptcy-filing-before-april-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "5%",
"# Forecasts": 243
},
{
"Title": "When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 52
},
{
"Title": "How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 95
},
{
"Title": "What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 34
},
{
"Title": "When will Uber electrify 50% of its fleet?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 36
},
{
"Title": "Will California carry through with Governor Newsom's plan to sell only zero-emission electric cars and passenger trucks by 2035?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5538/california-zero-emission-sales-by-2035/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "50%",
"# Forecasts": 26
},
{
"Title": "How many DC Fast public charging outlets/connections will be available in the United States by 2022?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 56
},
{
"Title": "Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5540/scotus-impeachment-before-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "6%",
"# Forecasts": 65
},
{
"Title": "Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5541/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-at-toyko/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "73%",
"# Forecasts": 51
},
{
"Title": "Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5542/japan-host-games-advantage/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "40%",
"# Forecasts": 45
},
{
"Title": "What percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5546/success-rate-for-national-carbon-neutrality/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 19
},
{
"Title": "Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "79%",
"# Forecasts": 60
},
{
"Title": "Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5554/5th-ave-apple-store-closure-during-winter/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "38%",
"# Forecasts": 102
},
{
"Title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "50%",
"# Forecasts": 691
},
{
"Title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 54
},
{
"Title": "When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5559/when-will-lyft-be-80-electrified/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5560/difference-in-top-ev-model-sales-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "How many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5572/electric-bus-registrations-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 36
},
{
"Title": "When will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets available in California?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5573/us-state-race-in-public-charging-outlets/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 23
},
{
"Title": "Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5574/china-to-reach-nev-14-credit-in-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "75%",
"# Forecasts": 32
},
{
"Title": "What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 38
},
{
"Title": "Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5577/germany-to-overtake-us-in-ev-registrations/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "60%",
"# Forecasts": 35
},
{
"Title": "How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 92
},
{
"Title": "What will the price of neuropreservation be at Alcor in 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5585/neuropreservation-price-at-alcor-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 43
},
{
"Title": "Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "40%",
"# Forecasts": 52
},
{
"Title": "What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 33
},
{
"Title": "Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 election?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "57.99999999999999%",
"# Forecasts": 137
},
{
"Title": "Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5635/facebook-block-links-to-bitchute-before-2023/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "35%",
"# Forecasts": 30
},
{
"Title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 75
},
{
"Title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 128
},
{
"Title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 80
},
{
"Title": "When will the US Federal Minimum Wage be Raised?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5646/next-minimum-wage-raise/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 38
},
{
"Title": "When will 1% of humanity's GWP be produced off-Earth?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 33
},
{
"Title": "What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5659/max-number-of-us-daily-covid-19-cases/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 155
},
{
"Title": "What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5666/donald-trumps-net-worth-in-2024/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 92
},
{
"Title": "When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 45
},
{
"Title": "When will it be possible to buy Quantum Computing via the Cloud?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5671/quantum-computing-via-the-cloud/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 32
},
{
"Title": "Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "40%",
"# Forecasts": 49
},
{
"Title": "What will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5679/avg-daily-supply-motor-gasoline-2025/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 22
},
{
"Title": "By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 17
},
{
"Title": "When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 35
},
{
"Title": "How many new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5682/new-ev-bus-registration-2025/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 29
},
{
"Title": "Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production by 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5683/who-will-produce-the-most-lithium-by-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "50%",
"# Forecasts": 22
},
{
"Title": "Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "33%",
"# Forecasts": 63
},
{
"Title": "When will Graphcore become a publicly traded company?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5694/when-will-graphcore-ipo/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 12
},
{
"Title": "When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 42
},
{
"Title": "What will be the net percentage of people who believe it's acceptable to buy fur by 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5697/moral-acceptablity-of-buying-fur-by-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 48
},
{
"Title": "Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "56.99999999999999%",
"# Forecasts": 45
},
{
"Title": "Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5716/longbets-oil-consumed-in-us-in-2035-vs-2015/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "32%",
"# Forecasts": 30
},
{
"Title": "Will Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5717/will-trump-be-elected-potus-in-2024/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "3%",
"# Forecasts": 244
},
{
"Title": "Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "37%",
"# Forecasts": 164
},
{
"Title": "When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 274
},
{
"Title": "What will the community median's Brier score (at closing time) be when the Metaculus has 300 predictors per question?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5729/m-community-brier-when-300-predictors-per-q/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 47
},
{
"Title": "Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "65%",
"# Forecasts": 211
},
{
"Title": "What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 125
},
{
"Title": "By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "54%",
"# Forecasts": 141
},
{
"Title": "Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "37%",
"# Forecasts": 259
},
{
"Title": "What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 60
},
{
"Title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 152
},
{
"Title": "When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 57
},
{
"Title": "Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "98%",
"# Forecasts": 360
},
{
"Title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 122
},
{
"Title": "Will any executives be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5768/prison-for-corporate-crooks/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "71%",
"# Forecasts": 22
},
{
"Title": "When will GTA VI be released in the US?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5772/when-will-gta-vi-be-released-in-the-us/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 50
},
{
"Title": "When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 514
},
{
"Title": "What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5780/real-us-house-prices-in-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 23
},
{
"Title": "When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 21
},
{
"Title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for January 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 111
},
{
"Title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 83
},
{
"Title": "What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in February 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5794/initial-jobless-claims-in-february-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 87
},
{
"Title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 60
},
{
"Title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 56
},
{
"Title": "How effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZenca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5800/astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-effectiveness/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 138
},
{
"Title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for February 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 64
},
{
"Title": "How large will Monaco be in 2035?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5802/how-large-will-monaco-be-in-2035/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 46
},
{
"Title": "When will the first clone of a prominent historical figure be born?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5804/first-clone-of-a-prominent-historical-figure/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 15
},
{
"Title": "When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 298
},
{
"Title": "Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "28.999999999999996%",
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},
{
"Title": "How efficacious will the Sputnik V SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be according to the peer reviewed results of the Phase 3 RCT?",
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"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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{
"Title": "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "50%",
"# Forecasts": 68
},
{
"Title": "Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5819/aussie-pollie-mathias-cormann-to-lead-oecd/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "30%",
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},
{
"Title": "When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5823/date-first-class-royal-mail-stamps-costs-1/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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{
"Title": "Will the UK government succeed in reducing its commitment to spend 0.7% of GNI on International aid?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5824/uk-to-cut-international-aid/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "67%",
"# Forecasts": 114
},
{
"Title": "Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "21%",
"# Forecasts": 381
},
{
"Title": "How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5827/dc-charging-stations-in-boulder-co-by-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 50
},
{
"Title": "How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5828/dc-charging-stations-in-orlando-fl-in-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 26
},
{
"Title": "Will China land the next person on the Moon?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "23%",
"# Forecasts": 58
},
{
"Title": "When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 67
},
{
"Title": "How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5839/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 43
},
{
"Title": "How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2035?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5840/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2035/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 19
},
{
"Title": "On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "80%",
"# Forecasts": 129
},
{
"Title": "When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 34
},
{
"Title": "When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5858/when-will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 78
},
{
"Title": "What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 51
},
{
"Title": "What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5861/2020-olympic-womens-100m-final/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 48
},
{
"Title": "Longbets series: will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5865/longbets-us-productivity-growth-2-2025/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "40%",
"# Forecasts": 16
},
{
"Title": "Longbets series: will the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5866/longbets-low-unemployment-but-low-lfpr-2025/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "51%",
"# Forecasts": 27
},
{
"Title": "What will US house prices be at the end of 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5867/real-us-house-prices-in-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on June 14, 2021?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 166
},
{
"Title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2021 list?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5872/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-21/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 248
},
{
"Title": "Will online poker die by 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5875/online-poker-dead-by-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "23%",
"# Forecasts": 78
},
{
"Title": "What percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5876/-of-us-gdp-spent-on-rd-in-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 25
},
{
"Title": "Will the next US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5882/2024-us-election-considered-fraudulent/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "50%",
"# Forecasts": 67
},
{
"Title": "Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "54%",
"# Forecasts": 34
},
{
"Title": "Will the Open Courts Act become law?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "56.99999999999999%",
"# Forecasts": 39
},
{
"Title": "Will Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5885/will-elon-musk-walk-on-the-moon-by-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "1%",
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},
{
"Title": "Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republican?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "26%",
"# Forecasts": 48
},
{
"Title": "How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 126
},
{
"Title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2021 TOP500 list?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 154
},
{
"Title": "How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 178
},
{
"Title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 142
},
{
"Title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 144
},
{
"Title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 188
},
{
"Title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv from 2021 through 2026?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 141
},
{
"Title": "How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 137
},
{
"Title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 124
},
{
"Title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 272
},
{
"Title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in Average Precision (AP)?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5903/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2021-06-14/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 167
},
{
"Title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5904/image-classification-index-2021-06-14/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 158
},
{
"Title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 158
},
{
"Title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5907/number-confirmed-global-covid-deaths-by-2022/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 127
},
{
"Title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 291
},
{
"Title": "What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5909/covid-vaccine-doses-bought-by-us-by-june/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 152
},
{
"Title": "How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5910/covid-vaccines-approved-by-us-fda-by-june/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 159
},
{
"Title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5911/april-2021-production-of-semiconducters/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 139
},
{
"Title": "When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5912/when-will-us-allow-travel-from-europe/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 165
},
{
"Title": "Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "30%",
"# Forecasts": 138
},
{
"Title": "Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5915/will-us-aca-have-public-option-in-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "10%",
"# Forecasts": 111
},
{
"Title": "Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5916/will-2021-be-the-hottest-year-on-record/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "33%",
"# Forecasts": 190
},
{
"Title": "When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5917/date-us-rejoins-paris-climate-agreement/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 293
},
{
"Title": "Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5918/world-to-agree-to-new-climate-targets-in-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "67%",
"# Forecasts": 96
},
{
"Title": "Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5920/us-to-join-rcep-trade-pact-in-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "20%",
"# Forecasts": 100
},
{
"Title": "What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5921/net-migration-to-uk-in-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 147
},
{
"Title": "Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "55.00000000000001%",
"# Forecasts": 134
},
{
"Title": "What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5923/us-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 128
},
{
"Title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2021-06-14 in perplexity?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5924/sota-perplexity-on-wikitext-103-2021-06-14/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 153
},
{
"Title": "What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5925/eu-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 81
},
{
"Title": "Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5926/bear-market-in-sp-500-in-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "30%",
"# Forecasts": 215
},
{
"Title": "What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 177
},
{
"Title": "What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5928/wti-oil-price-in-december-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 192
},
{
"Title": "How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5929/us-pev-sales-in-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 106
},
{
"Title": "What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5931/number-of-commercial-flights-on-30-june-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 113
},
{
"Title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 87
},
{
"Title": "What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5935/it-and-comms-weighting-in-sp500-2021-06-14/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 209
},
{
"Title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5936/closing-price-igm-on-2021-06-14/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 167
},
{
"Title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5937/sota-on-superglue-on-2021-06-14/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 229
},
{
"Title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5938/multi-modal-ml-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 157
},
{
"Title": "What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5939/it-as--of-gdp-in-q1-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 189
},
{
"Title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5940/squad20-sota-perfomance-2021-06-14/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 170
},
{
"Title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5941/sota-text-to-sql-on-wikisql-2021-06-14/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 163
},
{
"Title": "What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5942/box-office-gross-in-the-us--canada-in-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 90
},
{
"Title": "How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5943/us-excess-covid-19-deaths/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 64
},
{
"Title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5946/sota-on-imagenet-on-2024-06-14/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 167
},
{
"Title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2026-12-14 in perplexity?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5947/sota-perplexity-on-wikitext-103-2026-12-14/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 164
},
{
"Title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5948/image-classification-index-2026-12-14/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 148
},
{
"Title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2026 list?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5949/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-nov-2026/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 142
},
{
"Title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5950/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 133
},
{
"Title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on December 14, 2026?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5951/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 139
},
{
"Title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2026-12-14 in 2020 USD?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5955/alphabet-incs-market-cap-on-2026-12-14/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 169
},
{
"Title": "What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q4 of 2030?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5958/it-as--of-gdp-in-q4-2030/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 150
},
{
"Title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2026, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5960/dec-2026-production-of-semiconductors/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 113
},
{
"Title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01 period?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5961/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-01-2031-01-01/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 169
},
{
"Title": "How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-01-01 to 2027-01-01 period?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5962/few-shot-learning-2020-12-14-to-2027-01-01/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 230
},
{
"Title": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5965/object-detection-index-2021-06-14/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 166
},
{
"Title": "What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5974/yang-last-round-vote-share-2021-ny-mayor/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 54
},
{
"Title": "Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5979/ca-gov-newsom-petitioned-for-recall-election/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "71%",
"# Forecasts": 293
},
{
"Title": "Will a Glastonbury Festival take place in 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5986/glastonbury-festival-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "45%",
"# Forecasts": 63
},
{
"Title": "What will the unemployment rate be for German law degree holders in 2025?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5987/unemployment-rate-for-german-lawyers-in-2025/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 30
},
{
"Title": "For the month of February 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5990/february-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 55
},
{
"Title": "What will the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate (i.e. multi-family, industrial, retail, and hotel) be in Q2 of 2021, in the US?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5991/us-commercial-real-estate-vacancy-q2-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 37
},
{
"Title": "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5992/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 33
},
{
"Title": "Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5993/washington-q1-2021-business-income--q1-2019/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "40%",
"# Forecasts": 35
},
{
"Title": "What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5994/-change-in-pc-insurance-premiums-q1-2022/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 20
},
{
"Title": "For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5995/will-us-peak-unemployment-in-2021-be-in-q1/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "67%",
"# Forecasts": 42
},
{
"Title": "What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5996/cares-act-unemployment-payments-in-2021-q1/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 82
},
{
"Title": "What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 70
},
{
"Title": "How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 41
},
{
"Title": "Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6000/lives-saved-by-seconddosedelay-for-vaccine/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "80%",
"# Forecasts": 92
},
{
"Title": "When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 6%?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6002/gwp-growth-to-exceed-6/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 30
},
{
"Title": "How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6003/total-donated-by-hia-athletes-by-end-of-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 41
},
{
"Title": "What fraction of High Impact Athletes pledge-takers will maintain it through the end of 2024?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6005/fraction-of-hia-pledges-still-active-in-2024/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 29
},
{
"Title": "Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6007/vaccine-update-due-to-mutation/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "99%",
"# Forecasts": 284
},
{
"Title": "Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "61%",
"# Forecasts": 126
},
{
"Title": "What proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6010/england-proportion-of-hospital-acquired-covid/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 49
},
{
"Title": "When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 26
},
{
"Title": "Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6018/burger-king-to-cease-using-gestation-stalls/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "8%",
"# Forecasts": 46
},
{
"Title": "Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6020/charity-entrepreneurship-to-birth-top-ace-ngo/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "44%",
"# Forecasts": 43
},
{
"Title": "Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6021/ce-to-incubate-ace-recommended-ngo-by-2025/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "60%",
"# Forecasts": 40
},
{
"Title": "When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6022/when-will-wild-animal-welfare-reach-top-uni/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 79
},
{
"Title": "Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6023/charity-in-china-to-ace-aces-criteria/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "23%",
"# Forecasts": 80
},
{
"Title": "Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6024/sexual-scandal-amongst-animal-advocates/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "15%",
"# Forecasts": 65
},
{
"Title": "Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6025/diversity-debacle-amongst-animal-advocates/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "12%",
"# Forecasts": 59
},
{
"Title": "How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6026/2021-donations-to-animal-charity-evaluators/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 26
},
{
"Title": "How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6027/money-moved-by-animal-charity-evaluators/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 35
},
{
"Title": "Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6028/nobel-prize-for-mmt-by-2041/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "25%",
"# Forecasts": 18
},
{
"Title": "How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6029/flights-on-iata-vaccine-passports-in-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 66
},
{
"Title": "Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6031/more-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "94%",
"# Forecasts": 351
},
{
"Title": "When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 68
},
{
"Title": "Will any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6047/1m-lost-in-prediction-market/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "30%",
"# Forecasts": 49
},
{
"Title": "When will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6048/tomb-of-the-first-qin-emperor-opened/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 18
},
{
"Title": "Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6049/time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "76%",
"# Forecasts": 72
},
{
"Title": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "40%",
"# Forecasts": 319
},
{
"Title": "What will be the median age of an employed person in the US in 2040?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6055/us-median-age-of-employed-person-by-2040/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 16
},
{
"Title": "How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6056/us-employment-of-ages-16-24-in-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 17
},
{
"Title": "How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 18
},
{
"Title": "How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6060/number-employed-in-us-retail-in-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 30
},
{
"Title": "How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6061/number-employed-in-us-transport-industry-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 34
},
{
"Title": "How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6062/number-employed-in-us-education-industry-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 30
},
{
"Title": "When will the US achieve racial unemployment parity between racial groups labeled 'black' and 'white' by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6064/us-black-white-unemployment-parity/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 38
},
{
"Title": "How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6065/us-federal-budget-for-income-security-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 31
},
{
"Title": "What percentage of the US federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6066/us-federal-budget-for-medicare-in-2024/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 25
},
{
"Title": "What will be the income ratio between men and women employed full-time by 2025 in the US?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6070/us-gender-income-ratio-by-2025/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 18
},
{
"Title": "Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "69%",
"# Forecasts": 97
},
{
"Title": "When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, \"I Want My Hat Back\"?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 178
},
{
"Title": "How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6091/open-phil-grants-to-ai-safety-in-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 40
},
{
"Title": "Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "25%",
"# Forecasts": 101
},
{
"Title": "What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6100/average-democracy-index-score-in-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 25
},
{
"Title": "Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6102/anti-5g-attack-to-take-life-in-20212022/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "35%",
"# Forecasts": 18
},
{
"Title": "Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6104/b117-to-lock-down-3m-in-us-by-2021-03-11/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "23%",
"# Forecasts": 115
},
{
"Title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 135
},
{
"Title": "How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 44
},
{
"Title": "Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6108/norway-eea-membership-2025/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "5%",
"# Forecasts": 41
},
{
"Title": "In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6109/ea-donations-to-new-charities-in-2025/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 29
},
{
"Title": "What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6111/khan-final-round-mayoral-election-vote-share/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 62
},
{
"Title": "How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?",
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{
"Title": "When will there be at least one billion Americans?",
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"Title": "What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?",
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"Title": "When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?",
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{
"Title": "How good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?",
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{
"Title": "How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?",
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"Title": "What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021",
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"Title": "How much money will GiveWell move in 2031?",
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{
"Title": "By January 14 2022, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?",
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{
"Title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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{
"Title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?",
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{
"Title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?",
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{
"Title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?",
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{
"Title": "Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
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{
"Title": "When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6168/meetings-of-six-people-outside-in-england/",
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{
"Title": "When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?",
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{
"Title": "When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?",
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{
"Title": "How many consecutive Presidents of the United States will there be?",
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{
"Title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?",
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"Binary question?": true,
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{
"Title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2022-01-14 in perplexity?",
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{
"Title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?",
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{
"Title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?",
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{
"Title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?",
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},
{
"Title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?",
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"Percentage": "none",
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{
"Title": "By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?",
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},
{
"Title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?",
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{
"Title": "When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?",
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{
"Title": "When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?",
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{
"Title": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?",
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"Binary question?": true,
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},
{
"Title": "Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?",
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{
"Title": "How many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026?",
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{
"Title": "When will the next interstellar object be discovered?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
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"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6227/sota-segmentation-cityscapes-2022-01-14/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 63
},
{
"Title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2026-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6228/sota-on-imagenet-2026-12-14/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 55
},
{
"Title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6230/sota-montezumas-revenge-2022-01-14/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 80
},
{
"Title": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?",
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"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2021 list?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 66
},
{
"Title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?",
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"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 76
},
{
"Title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to December 2026?",
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"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 210
},
{
"Title": "When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6240/it-and-comms-weighting-in-sp500-2022-01-14/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6245/few-shot-learning-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?",
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"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 53
},
{
"Title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in average precision (AP)?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6248/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2022-01-14/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 48
},
{
"Title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 49
},
{
"Title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6250/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2022-01-14/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 42
},
{
"Title": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?",
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"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6255/closing-price-igm-on-2030-12-13/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 47
},
{
"Title": "What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6256/median-wage-for-computer-scientists-2029/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 87
},
{
"Title": "Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "34%",
"# Forecasts": 122
},
{
"Title": "Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6295/increase-in-us-poverty-from-2020-to-2021/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "57.99999999999999%",
"# Forecasts": 49
},
{
"Title": "Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "70%",
"# Forecasts": 39
},
{
"Title": "How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?",
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"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 58
},
{
"Title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 48
},
{
"Title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6302/sota-1-shot-on-miniimagenet-at-2024-12-14/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 66
},
{
"Title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 58
},
{
"Title": "Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "20%",
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},
{
"Title": "What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6311/biden-executive-orders-in-first-term/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 27
},
{
"Title": "Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "28.000000000000004%",
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},
{
"Title": "Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?",
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"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "75%",
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},
{
"Title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6325/us-below-100-covid-deaths-per-day/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "When, if ever, will 17 year olds vote in the US?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6326/17-year-old-suffrage-in-the-us/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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{
"Title": "How many countries will allow 17 year olds to vote in 2026?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 22
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{
"Title": "Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "52%",
"# Forecasts": 151
},
{
"Title": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany?",
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"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "75%",
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{
"Title": "When will the second SpaceX Starship flight be?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
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},
{
"Title": "When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 24
},
{
"Title": "What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": 100
},
{
"Title": "Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6348/ea-global-london-2021-rescheduled/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "40%",
"# Forecasts": 17
},
{
"Title": "Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6352/insurrection-act-invoked-before-2025/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "16%",
"# Forecasts": 32
},
{
"Title": "Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6356/aes-256-broken-by-2040/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "9%",
"# Forecasts": 50
},
{
"Title": "Will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true by 2100?",
"URL": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-hypothesis-proved-true-by-2100/",
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "88%",
"# Forecasts": 13
}
]
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