quantified.uncertainty/metaforecast
1
0
Fork 0
Code Issues Pull Requests Packages Projects Releases Wiki Activity

Updated polymarket & elicit fetchers so that they now run without human input. Added Omen

Browse Source
This commit is contained in:
NunoSempere 2021-01-28 15:28:01 +01:00
parent 3c76badc10
commit 9d70812fb9
26 changed files with 12070 additions and 32864 deletions
Show Stats Download Patch File Download Diff File Expand all files Collapse all files

23
README.md
View File

@ -1,13 +1,24 @@
## How to use your own cookies ## What this is
Private session cookies are necessary to query CSET-foretell and Good Judgment Open. You can get said cookies by creating an account in said platforms and then making and inspecting a request (e.g., by making a prediction). After doing this, you should create a `src/privatekeys.json`, in the same format as `src/privatekeys_example.json`
This is a set of libraries and a command line interface that fetches probabilities/forecasts from prediction markets and forecasting platforms. These forecasts are then hosted on airtable, and used to power a small search engine for probabilities.
Eventually, this could become more elaborate; for example, forecasts could be ranked according to their quality. For now, a demo can be found [here](https://www.loki.red/metaforecasts/) (try searching "Trump"), and the database can be perused [here](https://www.loki.red/metaforecasts/data/).
## How to run ## How to run
### 1. Download this repository
``git clone https://github.com/QURIresearch/metaforecasts``
### 2. Enter your own cookies
Private session cookies are necessary to query CSET-foretell and Good Judgment Open. You can get said cookies by creating an account in said platforms and then making and inspecting a request (e.g., by making a prediction). After doing this, you should create a `src/privatekeys.json`, in the same format as `src/privatekeys_example.json`
### 3. Actually run
From the top level directory, enter: `npm run start` From the top level directory, enter: `npm run start`
## Various notes ## Various notes
- This will eventually be a webpage where users can just search for keywords and obtain forecasts related to those keywords. For example, by searching "Trump" and get probabilities related to various scenarios involving him. - Right now, I'm fetching only a couple of common properties, such as the title, url, platform, whether a question is binary (yes/no), its percentage, and the number of forecasts. However, the code contains more fields commented out, such as trade volume, liquidity, etc.
- A demo of this functionality can be found [here](https://www.loki.red/metaforecasts/), the database can be found [here](https://www.loki.red/metaforecasts/data/), and a csv with the raw data [here](https://www.loki.red/metaforecasts/merged-questions.csv). - A note as to quality: Good Judgment Open ~ Metaculus > CSET > PredictIt ~> Polymarket >> Elicit > Omen. Further, prediction markets rarely go above 95% or below 5%.
- These probabilities could then be rated and annotated, e.g., prediction markets rarely go above 95% or below 5%. - For elicit and metaculus, this library currently filters questions with <10 predictions.
- For elicit and metaculus, this library currently filters questions with <10 predictions

54
data/csetforetell-questions.csv
View File

@ -1,25 +1,29 @@
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts","# Forecasters" "Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts"
"How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","11","11" "Conditional on President Trump NOT being convicted of ""incitement of insurrection,"" what will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022","CSET-foretell",false,"none","59"
"How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","25","25" "Conditional on President Trump being convicted of ""incitement of insurrection,"" what will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/108-conditional-on-the-senate-convicting-president-trump-of-insurrection-what-will-be-the-average-bipartisan-index-score-for-the-senate-during-congress-s-117th-session-2021-2022","CSET-foretell",false,"none","62"
"What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","11","10" "How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","45"
"Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022","CSET-foretell",true,"51%","38","31" "How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","51"
"How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/101-on-how-many-of-china-s-top-chipmakers-will-the-united-states-impose-new-export-controls-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","49","48" "How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","21"
"What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/100-what-percentage-of-the-collective-revenue-of-the-leading-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-producers-will-come-from-china-between-july-1-2020-and-june-30-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","43","41" "How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","55"
"Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell",true,"65%","101","75" "What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","28"
"What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/95-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","59","50" "Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022","CSET-foretell",true,"51%","58"
"When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong","CSET-foretell",false,"none","131","98" "How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/101-on-how-many-of-china-s-top-chipmakers-will-the-united-states-impose-new-export-controls-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","66"
"What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/96-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-chips-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","59","52" "What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/100-what-percentage-of-the-collective-revenue-of-the-leading-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-producers-will-come-from-china-between-july-1-2020-and-june-30-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","49"
"What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/93-what-will-the-dollar-value-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-chips-to-china-be-in-the-first-half-of-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","67","55" "Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell",true,"","148"
"What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in the first half of 2021? ","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/92-what-will-the-dollar-value-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-to-china-be-in-the-first-half-of-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","55","42" "What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/95-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","63"
"What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey","CSET-foretell",false,"none","138","121" "When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong","CSET-foretell",false,"none","146"
"What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/86-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-be-u-s-china-collaborations-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","82","77" "What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/96-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-chips-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","63"
"Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025","CSET-foretell",true,"71%","120","89" "What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/93-what-will-the-dollar-value-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-chips-to-china-be-in-the-first-half-of-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","71"
"What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for China be in the first two quarters of 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/84-what-will-the-ratio-of-trade-imports-exports-of-goods-to-gdp-be-china-in-the-first-two-quarters-january-1-through-june-30-of-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","53","42" "What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in the first half of 2021? ","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/92-what-will-the-dollar-value-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-to-china-be-in-the-first-half-of-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","57"
"What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for all OECD member countries be in the first two quarters of 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/83-what-will-the-ratio-of-trade-imports-exports-of-goods-to-gdp-be-for-oecd-member-countries-in-the-first-two-quarters-january-1-through-june-30-of-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","47","34" "What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey","CSET-foretell",false,"none","149"
"What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/80-what-percentage-of-u-s-citizens-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2021-pew-global-attitudes-survey","CSET-foretell",false,"none","200","158" "What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/86-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-be-u-s-china-collaborations-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","88"
"What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/79-conditional-on-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fy-2021-october-1-2020-to-september-30-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","84","68" "Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025","CSET-foretell",true,"71%","137"
"What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/76-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","80","61" "What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for China be in the first two quarters of 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/84-what-will-the-ratio-of-trade-imports-exports-of-goods-to-gdp-be-china-in-the-first-two-quarters-january-1-through-june-30-of-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","58"
"What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","169","126" "What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for all OECD member countries be in the first two quarters of 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/83-what-will-the-ratio-of-trade-imports-exports-of-goods-to-gdp-be-for-oecd-member-countries-in-the-first-two-quarters-january-1-through-june-30-of-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","55"
"How much will the U.S. government spend on surveillance-related AI grants between June 1, 2020 and May 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/41-how-much-will-the-u-s-government-spend-on-surveillance-related-ai-grants-between-june-1-2020-and-may-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","79","62" "What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/80-what-percentage-of-u-s-citizens-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2021-pew-global-attitudes-survey","CSET-foretell",false,"none","208"
"How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/32-how-many-sorties-against-chinese-aircraft-will-the-japanese-air-self-defense-force-conduct-by-april-30th-2020","CSET-foretell",false,"none","85","55" "What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/79-conditional-on-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fy-2021-october-1-2020-to-september-30-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","87"
"How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the ""Big 5"" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/23-how-many-new-h-1b-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fy-2020","CSET-foretell",false,"none","119","75" "What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/76-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","82"
"What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","172"
"How much will the U.S. government spend on surveillance-related AI grants between June 1, 2020 and May 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/41-how-much-will-the-u-s-government-spend-on-surveillance-related-ai-grants-between-june-1-2020-and-may-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","84"
"How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/32-how-many-sorties-against-chinese-aircraft-will-the-japanese-air-self-defense-force-conduct-by-april-30th-2020","CSET-foretell",false,"none","89"
"How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the ""Big 5"" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/23-how-many-new-h-1b-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fy-2020","CSET-foretell",false,"none","119"
1 Title URL Platform Binary question? Percentage # Forecasts # Forecasters
2 How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? Conditional on President Trump NOT being convicted of "incitement of insurrection," what will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022 CSET-foretell false none 11 59 11
3 How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021? Conditional on President Trump being convicted of "incitement of insurrection," what will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/108-conditional-on-the-senate-convicting-president-trump-of-insurrection-what-will-be-the-average-bipartisan-index-score-for-the-senate-during-congress-s-117th-session-2021-2022 CSET-foretell false none 25 62 25
4 What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell false none 11 45 10
5 Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022? How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell true false 51% none 38 51 31
6 How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021? How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/101-on-how-many-of-china-s-top-chipmakers-will-the-united-states-impose-new-export-controls-in-2021 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell false none 49 21 48
7 What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021? How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/100-what-percentage-of-the-collective-revenue-of-the-leading-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-producers-will-come-from-china-between-july-1-2020-and-june-30-2021-inclusive https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021 CSET-foretell false none 43 55 41
8 Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021? What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell true false 65% none 101 28 75
9 What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021? Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/95-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-in-2021 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022 CSET-foretell false true none 51% 59 58 50
10 When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong? How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/101-on-how-many-of-china-s-top-chipmakers-will-the-united-states-impose-new-export-controls-in-2021 CSET-foretell false none 131 66 98
11 What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2021? What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/96-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-chips-in-2021 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/100-what-percentage-of-the-collective-revenue-of-the-leading-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-producers-will-come-from-china-between-july-1-2020-and-june-30-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell false none 59 49 52
12 What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021? Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/93-what-will-the-dollar-value-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-chips-to-china-be-in-the-first-half-of-2021 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021 CSET-foretell false true none 67 148 55
13 What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in the first half of 2021? What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/92-what-will-the-dollar-value-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-to-china-be-in-the-first-half-of-2021 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/95-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-in-2021 CSET-foretell false none 55 63 42
14 What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong CSET-foretell false none 138 146 121
15 What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021? What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/86-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-be-u-s-china-collaborations-in-2021 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/96-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-chips-in-2021 CSET-foretell false none 82 63 77
16 Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025? What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/93-what-will-the-dollar-value-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-chips-to-china-be-in-the-first-half-of-2021 CSET-foretell true false 71% none 120 71 89
17 What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for China be in the first two quarters of 2021? What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in the first half of 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/84-what-will-the-ratio-of-trade-imports-exports-of-goods-to-gdp-be-china-in-the-first-two-quarters-january-1-through-june-30-of-2021 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/92-what-will-the-dollar-value-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-to-china-be-in-the-first-half-of-2021 CSET-foretell false none 53 57 42
18 What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for all OECD member countries be in the first two quarters of 2021? What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/83-what-will-the-ratio-of-trade-imports-exports-of-goods-to-gdp-be-for-oecd-member-countries-in-the-first-two-quarters-january-1-through-june-30-of-2021 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey CSET-foretell false none 47 149 34
19 What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/80-what-percentage-of-u-s-citizens-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2021-pew-global-attitudes-survey https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/86-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-be-u-s-china-collaborations-in-2021 CSET-foretell false none 200 88 158
20 What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)? Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/79-conditional-on-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fy-2021-october-1-2020-to-september-30-2021 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025 CSET-foretell false true none 71% 84 137 68
21 What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021? What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for China be in the first two quarters of 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/76-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2021 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/84-what-will-the-ratio-of-trade-imports-exports-of-goods-to-gdp-be-china-in-the-first-two-quarters-january-1-through-june-30-of-2021 CSET-foretell false none 80 58 61
22 What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021? What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for all OECD member countries be in the first two quarters of 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/83-what-will-the-ratio-of-trade-imports-exports-of-goods-to-gdp-be-for-oecd-member-countries-in-the-first-two-quarters-january-1-through-june-30-of-2021 CSET-foretell false none 169 55 126
23 How much will the U.S. government spend on surveillance-related AI grants between June 1, 2020 and May 31, 2021, inclusive? What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/41-how-much-will-the-u-s-government-spend-on-surveillance-related-ai-grants-between-june-1-2020-and-may-31-2021-inclusive https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/80-what-percentage-of-u-s-citizens-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2021-pew-global-attitudes-survey CSET-foretell false none 79 208 62
24 How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive? What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/32-how-many-sorties-against-chinese-aircraft-will-the-japanese-air-self-defense-force-conduct-by-april-30th-2020 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/79-conditional-on-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fy-2021-october-1-2020-to-september-30-2021 CSET-foretell false none 85 87 55
25 How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive? What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/23-how-many-new-h-1b-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fy-2020 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/76-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2021 CSET-foretell false none 119 82 75
26 What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021 CSET-foretell false none 172
27 How much will the U.S. government spend on surveillance-related AI grants between June 1, 2020 and May 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/41-how-much-will-the-u-s-government-spend-on-surveillance-related-ai-grants-between-june-1-2020-and-may-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell false none 84
28 How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/32-how-many-sorties-against-chinese-aircraft-will-the-japanese-air-self-defense-force-conduct-by-april-30th-2020 CSET-foretell false none 89
29 How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/23-how-many-new-h-1b-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fy-2020 CSET-foretell false none 119

130
data/csetforetell-questions.json
View File

@ -1,12 +1,48 @@
[ [
{
"Title": "Conditional on President Trump NOT being convicted of \"incitement of insurrection,\" what will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?",
"URL": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022",
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "59",
"# Forecasters": "54"
},
{
"Title": "Conditional on President Trump being convicted of \"incitement of insurrection,\" what will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?",
"URL": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/108-conditional-on-the-senate-convicting-president-trump-of-insurrection-what-will-be-the-average-bipartisan-index-score-for-the-senate-during-congress-s-117th-session-2021-2022",
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "62",
"# Forecasters": "58"
},
{
"Title": "How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
"URL": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "45",
"# Forecasters": "44"
},
{
"Title": "How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
"URL": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "51",
"# Forecasters": "46"
},
{ {
"Title": "How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?", "Title": "How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
"URL": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive", "URL": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
"Platform": "CSET-foretell", "Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false, "Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none", "Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "11", "# Forecasts": "21",
"# Forecasters": "11" "# Forecasters": "21"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?", "Title": "How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?",
@ -14,8 +50,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell", "Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false, "Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none", "Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "25", "# Forecasts": "55",
"# Forecasters": "25" "# Forecasters": "51"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?", "Title": "What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
@ -23,8 +59,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell", "Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false, "Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none", "Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "11", "# Forecasts": "28",
"# Forecasters": "10" "# Forecasters": "26"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?", "Title": "Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?",
@ -32,8 +68,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell", "Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": true, "Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "51%", "Percentage": "51%",
"# Forecasts": "38", "# Forecasts": "58",
"# Forecasters": "31" "# Forecasters": "44"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?", "Title": "How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?",
@ -41,8 +77,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell", "Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false, "Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none", "Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "49", "# Forecasts": "66",
"# Forecasters": "48" "# Forecasters": "62"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?", "Title": "What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?",
@ -50,17 +86,17 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell", "Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false, "Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none", "Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "43", "# Forecasts": "49",
"# Forecasters": "41" "# Forecasters": "46"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?", "Title": "Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021", "URL": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021",
"Platform": "CSET-foretell", "Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": true, "Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "65%", "Percentage": "",
"# Forecasts": "101", "# Forecasts": "148",
"# Forecasters": "75" "# Forecasters": "108"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021?", "Title": "What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021?",
@ -68,8 +104,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell", "Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false, "Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none", "Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "59", "# Forecasts": "63",
"# Forecasters": "50" "# Forecasters": "54"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?", "Title": "When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?",
@ -77,8 +113,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell", "Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false, "Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none", "Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "131", "# Forecasts": "146",
"# Forecasters": "98" "# Forecasters": "105"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2021?", "Title": "What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2021?",
@ -86,8 +122,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell", "Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false, "Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none", "Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "59", "# Forecasts": "63",
"# Forecasters": "52" "# Forecasters": "55"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021?", "Title": "What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021?",
@ -95,8 +131,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell", "Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false, "Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none", "Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "67", "# Forecasts": "71",
"# Forecasters": "55" "# Forecasters": "57"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in the first half of 2021? ", "Title": "What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in the first half of 2021? ",
@ -104,8 +140,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell", "Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false, "Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none", "Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "55", "# Forecasts": "57",
"# Forecasters": "42" "# Forecasters": "44"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?", "Title": "What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?",
@ -113,8 +149,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell", "Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false, "Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none", "Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "138", "# Forecasts": "149",
"# Forecasters": "121" "# Forecasters": "131"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?", "Title": "What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?",
@ -122,8 +158,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell", "Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false, "Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none", "Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "82", "# Forecasts": "88",
"# Forecasters": "77" "# Forecasters": "83"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?", "Title": "Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?",
@ -131,8 +167,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell", "Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": true, "Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "71%", "Percentage": "71%",
"# Forecasts": "120", "# Forecasts": "137",
"# Forecasters": "89" "# Forecasters": "105"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for China be in the first two quarters of 2021?", "Title": "What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for China be in the first two quarters of 2021?",
@ -140,8 +176,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell", "Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false, "Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none", "Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "53", "# Forecasts": "58",
"# Forecasters": "42" "# Forecasters": "46"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for all OECD member countries be in the first two quarters of 2021?", "Title": "What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for all OECD member countries be in the first two quarters of 2021?",
@ -149,8 +185,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell", "Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false, "Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none", "Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "47", "# Forecasts": "55",
"# Forecasters": "34" "# Forecasters": "39"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?", "Title": "What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?",
@ -158,8 +194,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell", "Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false, "Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none", "Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "200", "# Forecasts": "208",
"# Forecasters": "158" "# Forecasters": "165"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?", "Title": "What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?",
@ -167,8 +203,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell", "Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false, "Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none", "Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "84", "# Forecasts": "87",
"# Forecasters": "68" "# Forecasters": "70"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?", "Title": "What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?",
@ -176,8 +212,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell", "Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false, "Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none", "Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "80", "# Forecasts": "82",
"# Forecasters": "61" "# Forecasters": "63"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?", "Title": "What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?",
@ -185,8 +221,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell", "Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false, "Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none", "Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "169", "# Forecasts": "172",
"# Forecasters": "126" "# Forecasters": "128"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "How much will the U.S. government spend on surveillance-related AI grants between June 1, 2020 and May 31, 2021, inclusive?", "Title": "How much will the U.S. government spend on surveillance-related AI grants between June 1, 2020 and May 31, 2021, inclusive?",
@ -194,8 +230,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell", "Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false, "Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none", "Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "79", "# Forecasts": "84",
"# Forecasters": "62" "# Forecasters": "67"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?", "Title": "How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?",
@ -203,8 +239,8 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell", "Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false, "Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none", "Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "85", "# Forecasts": "89",
"# Forecasters": "55" "# Forecasters": "57"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the \"Big 5\" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive?", "Title": "How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the \"Big 5\" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive?",

20431
data/elicit-binary_export.csv
View File

File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff

681
data/elicit-questions.csv
View File

@ -1,348 +1,341 @@
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts","# Forecasters" "Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.34%",336,138 "Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%2050%20prediction%20questions%20embedded%20in%20LessWrong%20posts%20and%20comments%20this%20month?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.39%",337
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more than 50 people predict on this post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"81.86%",227,120 "Will more than 50 people predict on this post?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more%20than%2050%20people%20predict%20on%20this%20post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"81.90%",228
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI cause an existential catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36.85%",158,102 "Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36.85%",158
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"52.70%",137,95 "Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20without%20additional%20intervention%20from%20the%20existing%20AI%20Alignment%20research%20community?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"52.70%",137
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"75.52%",113,91 "Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20arms%20race%20dynamic%20in%20the%20lead-up%20to%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"75.52%",113
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"62.91%",207,89 "The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20new%20English%20Strain%20is%20at%20least%2050%%20more%20infectious%20than%20the%20currently%20dominant%20American%20strain%20of%20Covid-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"63.37%",211
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"61.63%",115,86 "Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20single%20AGI%20or%20AGI%20project%20achieve%20a%20decisive%20strategic%20advantage?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"61.63%",115
"How vivid is your visual imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid is your visual imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"50.68%",119,77 "How vivid is your visual imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"50.68%",119
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.50%",110,77 "Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%20deep%20learning%20with%20small%20variations,%20without%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.50%",110
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20> 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"42.70%",107,76 "Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"42.70%",107
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.79%",100,75 "Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20we%20build%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.79%",100
"How vivid is your sound imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid is your sound imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"61.17%",106,74 "How vivid is your sound imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20sound%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"61.17%",106
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.63%",95,72 "Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20another%20AI%20Winter%20(a%20period%20commonly%20referred%20to%20as%20such)%20before%20we%20develop%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.63%",95
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"43.12%",112,71 "Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%201-3%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"43.12%",112
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"60.43%",145,69 "There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20an%20additional%20distinct%20large%20wave%20of%20Covid-19%20infections%20in%20the%20United%20States%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"58.18%",158
"How vivid is your taste imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid is your taste imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"25.73%",84,69 "How vivid is your taste imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20taste%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"25.73%",84
"How vivid is your smell imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid is your smell imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"25.41%",82,68 "How vivid is your smell imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20smell%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"25.41%",82
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"25.38%",84,67 "Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20need%20>%203%20breakthroughs%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning%20to%20get%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"25.38%",84
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you have a type of Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"19.76%",87,66 "How frequently do you think in words?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"78.13%",86
"How frequently do you think in words?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently do you think in words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"78.13%",86,66 "Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"19.76%",87
"Do you have an internal monologue?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you have an internal monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"82.28%",80,63 "Do you have an internal monologue?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"82.28%",80
"How vivid is your touch imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid is your touch imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36.13%",79,62 "How vivid is your touch imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36.13%",79
"How good is your memory?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good is your memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"53.25%",77,61 "How much control do you have over your mind?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20much%20control%20do%20you%20have%20over%20your%20mind?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"45.59%",76
"How much control do you have over your mind?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20much control do you have over your mind?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"45.59%",76,61 "How good is your memory?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"53.25%",77
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"42.76%",85,57 "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"42.76%",85
"Trump will win a second term","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will win a second term&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46.20%",74,54 "Trump will win a second term","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20win%20a%20second%20term&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46.20%",74
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24.51%",75,52 "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"31.56%",66
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"31.56%",66,52 "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20continue%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24.51%",75
"Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"32.77%",93,49 "Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the%20post%20""Embedded%20Interactive%20Predictions%20on%20LessWrong""%20get%20more%20than%2080%20karma%20by%20December%201st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"89.52%",83
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"89.52%",83,45 "Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Having%20a%20button/prompt%20for%20Elicit%20on%20LW%20would%20increase%20usage%20by%20at%20least%205x&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"60.22%",41
"Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.93%",44,41 "By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025%20bitcoin%20will%20no%20longer%20be%20the%20highest%20traded%20cryptocurrency.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.49%",37
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Having%20a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"60.22%",41,37 "A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Singularity%20will%20not%20occur%20by%20the%20year%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"68.71%",42
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.49%",37,35 "Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"61.12%",42
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"68.71%",42,34 "Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202025,%20most%20of%20Russia%20will%20become%20part%20of%20the%20United%20States,%20or%20the%20reverse,%20or%20they%20will%20in%20some%20other%20manner%20become%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state,%20or%20part%20of%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.79%",34
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"61.12%",42,33 "The Pope will be assassinated.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Pope%20will%20be%20assassinated.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.03%",32
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.79%",34,32 "Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.38%",47
"The Pope will be assassinated.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Pope will be assassinated.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.03%",32,30 "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36.91%",34
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""There%20will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.91%",33,29 "PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"83.00%",40
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"38.97%",31,29 """There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin""%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.91%",33
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will still survive by the end of 2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"83.00%",40,29 "The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"38.97%",31
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36.91%",34,29 "Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"54.94%",47
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.38%",47,28 "No military draft in the United States before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"90.27%",33
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"54.94%",47,28 "No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"82.13%",32
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.00%",34,28 "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.00%",34
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.81%",31,28 "Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.81%",31
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"82.13%",32,28 "Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organised%20religions%20will%20no%20longer%20exist%20in%20any%20meaningful%20way%20and%20religion%20will%20no%20longer%20have%20any%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.68%",28
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military draft in the United States before 2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"90.27%",33,28 "Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.23%",26
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.68%",28,27 "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.24%",42
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.23%",26,26 "Trump wins Nobel","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.55%",38
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.24%",42,26 "California will secede from the United States before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.68%",34
"California will secede from the United States before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will secede from the United States before 2021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.68%",34,26 "Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.88%",26
"Trump wins Nobel","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.55%",38,26 "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46.84%",32
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was an official NSA or CIA project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.88%",26,25 "...be an environmental disaster.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"27.35%",26
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46.84%",32,24 "For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"58.56%",34
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""I%20predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.69%",26,23 """I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.69%",26
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.46%",26,23 "50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24.39%",28
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity will occur by 2050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"35.12%",25,23 "The Singularity will occur by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"35.12%",25
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24.39%",28,23 "Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.46%",26
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"84.11%",27,22 "Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"62.27%",26
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.91%",33,22 "By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6.67%",24
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"68.88%",25,22 "Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20""Inverse%20AlphaFold""%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.91%",33
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"19.35%",23,22 "PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"68.88%",25
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6.67%",24,22 "Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"19.35%",23
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"58.15%",39,21 "Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"84.11%",27
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"59.38%",32,21 "TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"58.15%",39
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.36%",25,21 "Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"99.41%",22
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"99.41%",22,21 "Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20.48%",29
"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.45%",22,20 "In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.36%",25
"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"15.33%",21,20 "Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"60.84%",32
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"21.64%",22,20 "The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"37.46%",24
"Google will survive for 15 more years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will survive for 15 more years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"88.38%",21,20 "Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"34.13%",47
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020 organized religions will have no political influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.68%",22,20 "...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"70.75%",20
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.74%",23,20 "Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"27.83%",35
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"18.43%",23,19 "Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.74%",23
"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"54.20%",20,19 "Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"21.64%",22
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"60.07%",30,19 "Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.68%",22
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"39.69%",35,18 "Google will survive for 15 more years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"88.38%",21
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.94%",35,19 "China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.45%",22
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"86.75%",24,19 "Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"15.33%",21
"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.21%",19,19 "The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"72.43%",23
"United States will invade Australia and take over","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States will invade Australia and take over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.00%",21,19 "Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.94%",35
"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.05%",21,19 "Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"83.14%",22
"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6.95%",20,19 "Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6.95%",20
"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"74.85%",20,19 "United States will invade Australia and take over","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.00%",21
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"72.43%",23,19 "Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"39.69%",35
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"64.80%",40,18 "No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"86.75%",24
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"34.33%",45,18 "90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.05%",21
"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"69.74%",19,18 "Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"54.20%",20
"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36.67%",21,18 "No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"74.85%",20
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"64.34%",50,18 "Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.21%",19
"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will make First Contact before we will have AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"12.05%",21,18 "...all-things-considered, be good for the world.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"81.81%",26
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.27%",26,18 "...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.37%",19
"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.32%",22,18 "...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"50.74%",19
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"67.55%",22,18 "...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36.45%",20
"Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"51.78%",18,18 "There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"64.28%",18
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"64.28%",18,18 "We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"12.05%",21
"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"21.62%",21,17 "Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"64.80%",40
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.78%",32,17 "The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"67.55%",22
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.72%",18,17 "“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.27%",26
"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.39%",18,17 "What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20""Clogged%20drainpipe""%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"64.34%",50
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"83.95%",21,17 "Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.32%",22
"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"12.79%",19,17 "Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"51.78%",18
"aliens invade earth in 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade earth in 2023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.94%",18,17 "A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"21.62%",21
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.17%",23,17 "The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20""a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true"".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.27%",26
"...be an environmental disaster.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an environmental disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"30.95%",19,17 "The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"83.95%",21
"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will not have established moon bases by 2032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"69.33%",18,17 "'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.80%",25
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.80%",25,17 "Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.17%",23
"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial general intelligence by 2030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.89%",19,17 "Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"69.33%",18
"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"30.95%",20,17 "“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"35.00%",23
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"35.00%",23,17 "A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"30.95%",20
"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.12%",17,16 "My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.39%",18
"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"19.11%",19,16 "Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"12.79%",19
"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"77.71%",17,16 "It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.72%",18
"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"34.67%",18,16 "Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.89%",19
"US presidents term limits abolished","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents term limits abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.24%",17,16 "aliens invade earth in 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.94%",18
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.04%",24,16 "Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.13%",16
"Will the UK terrorism threat level be ‘severe’ at 9am PST on Sun 11/22?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the UK terrorism threat level be ‘severe’ at 9am PST on Sun 11/22?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"81.00%",24,16 "An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.12%",17
"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will travel to Mars by 2030. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"42.89%",18,16 "If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"77.71%",17
"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"95.32%",19,16 "A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.90%",20
"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"35.53%",19,16 "US presidents term limits abolished","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.24%",17
"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.13%",16,16 "Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"42.89%",18
"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.90%",20,16 "Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"35.53%",19
"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"57.78%",18,16 "An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"57.78%",18
"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.81%",16,15 "By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"34.67%",18
"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"73.94%",17,15 "Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20""in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"19.11%",19
"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.44%",16,15 "Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"95.32%",19
"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"66.47%",17,15 "Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"59.36%",25
"Will the title of the New York Times front page article on Sun 11/22 include any of the words: ‘coronavirus,’ ‘COVID-19,’ ‘COVID,’ or ‘SARS-CoV-2’?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the title of the New York Times front page article on Sun 11/22 include any of the words: ‘coronavirus,’ ‘COVID-19,’ ‘COVID,’ or ‘SARS-CoV-2’?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"25.33%",24,15 "Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.18%",17
"Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20 life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.18%",17,15 "The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.00%",20
"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"80.50%",18,15 "If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"73.94%",17
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.48%",25,15 "If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.44%",16
"...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"64.47%",15,15 "If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"66.47%",17
"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.00%",20,15 "Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.48%",25
"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"43.47%",19,15 "Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"76.55%",20
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.90%",29,15 "The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"78.12%",17
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"59.36%",25,15 "Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.90%",29
"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.71%",17,15 "Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.71%",17
"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"93.31%",16,15 "Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"92.69%",16
"C still widely in use in the 2020s","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still widely in use in the 2020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"93.53%",15,15 "Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.81%",16
"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will collapse before the People's Republic of China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"41.47%",17,15 "There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20""World%20War%20III""%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20""allies""%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"93.31%",16
"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"92.69%",16,15 "C still widely in use in the 2020s","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"93.53%",15
"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""by%202030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6.20%",15,14 "A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"43.47%",19
"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we understand the content of a message from outer space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.39%",18,14 "USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"41.47%",17
"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.73%",15,14 "In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.47%",15
"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"87.18%",17,14 "North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"5.94%",17
"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.73%",15
"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"82.20%",15
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.39%",18
"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.00%",18
"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20""Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow"".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.86%",14
"By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"53.00%",14
"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.39%",18
"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6.20%",15
"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.""%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.55%",20
"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.00%",15
"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.21%",14
"Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally. "Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.
","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally.
&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.19%",16,14 &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.19%",16
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.39%",18,14 "The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.00%",15
"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.86%",14,14 "Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"87.18%",17
"...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"18.07%",15,14 "A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.79%",14
"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.00%",15,14 "The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.82%",17
"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.47%",15,14 "The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"30.26%",19
"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.00%",15,14 "Humanity still a thing in 2036","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"89.00%",13
"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Within%20ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.55%",20,14 "By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"38.31%",13
"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"82.20%",15,14 "By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.08%",13
"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.82%",17,14 "Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.69%",16
"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"5.94%",17,14 "Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20""How%20to%20create%20a%20mind"")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.75%",16
"By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"53.00%",14,14 "USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.50%",16
"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"30.26%",19,14 "The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"44.46%",26
"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.21%",14,14 "Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.79%",14
"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.00%",18,14 "ETI is AGI","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"84.61%",18
"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.79%",14,14 "Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"32.06%",16
"By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"44.15%",13,13 "There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20""SETI%20Winter""%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"73.89%",19
"ETI is AGI","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"84.61%",18,13 "We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.84%",19
"Humanity still a thing in 2036","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still a thing in 2036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"89.00%",13,13 "Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.33%",18
"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"73.89%",19,13 "Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"27.64%",14
"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.84%",19,13 "The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.62%",13
"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.62%",13,13 "North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"5.33%",15
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"51.36%",14,13 "Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"85.31%",16
"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.33%",18,13 "In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.69%",13
"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI won't happen in the next 10 years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"85.31%",16,13 "By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"44.15%",13
"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.75%",16,13 "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20""spaceship""%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"51.36%",14
"...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"37.07%",15,13 "Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.47%",15
"Will the number of active COVID cases in California increase by more than 15K between Fri 11/20 and Sun 11/22?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the number of active COVID cases in California increase by more than 15K between Fri 11/20 and Sun 11/22?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"71.29%",21,13 "Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20""Pilotless""%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"62.71%",14
"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"32.06%",16,13 "Trump dies of COVID-19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6.63%",32
"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""The%20Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.27%",15,13 "Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.75%",16
"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"5.33%",15,13 "Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"13.37%",19
"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.92%",13,13 "The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"18.54%",13
"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.79%",14,13 "All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.92%",13
"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be good for the world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"81.32%",19,13 """The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""The%20Essential%20Workers""%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.27%",15
"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.47%",15,13 "Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.08%",13
"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"27.64%",14,13 "10 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.42%",36
"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.50%",16,13 "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"51.07%",14
"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"62.71%",14,13 "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"30.40%",15
"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"18.54%",13,13 "In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46.07%",14
"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.69%",13,13 "North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20.25%",16
"Trump dies of COVID-19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies of COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6.63%",32,13 "“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"35.00%",12
"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"38.31%",13,13 "At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"78.92%",13
"10 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.42%",36,13 "Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"52.47%",15
"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.75%",16,13 "the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.64%",14
"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.69%",16,13 "Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"49.24%",33
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"13.37%",19,13 "The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46.69%",13
"By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065, a majority of the world will be vegan. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.08%",13,13 "1 year continuous human habitation of the moon","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"15.93%",14
"Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.08%",13,13 "If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20""train%20it%20away""?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"63.15%",26
"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.60%",15,12 "If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"70.00%",15
"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"70.00%",15,12 "If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"43.11%",19
"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"43.11%",19,12 "“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.83%",12
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46.69%",13,12 "Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"63.33%",15
"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"69.69%",13,12 "Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.31%",13
"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"52.47%",15,12 "There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"63.00%",13
"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"63.00%",13,12 "Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.60%",15
"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.64%",14,12 "Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.58%",12
"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46.07%",14,12 "100 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.79%",29
"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20.25%",16,12 "The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.50%",14
"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.50%",14,12 "Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"69.69%",13
"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.64%",14,12 "Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"37.08%",13
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"60.83%",12,12 "Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"18.25%",12
"...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen traffic in San Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"58.67%",12,12 "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"60.83%",12
"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"79.65%",17,12 "We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24.33%",12
"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.71%",14,12 "Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.64%",14
"We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24.33%",12,12 "Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.71%",14
"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.83%",12,12 "'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.17%",12
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first contact cause an existential catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"49.24%",33,12 "Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.33%",15
"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.73%",15,12 "Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"86.83%",12
"100 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.79%",29,12 "By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.73%",15
"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.33%",15,12 """Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.""%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"66.54%",13
"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year continuous human habitation of the moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"15.93%",14,12 "They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.57%",14
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"63.15%",26,13 "The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.82%",22
"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"63.33%",15,12 "A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"38.64%",11
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"51.07%",14,12 "As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"67.79%",14
"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"78.92%",13,12 "The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.00%",26
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"30.40%",15,12 "Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20""same""?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20""final%20being""?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.27%",11
"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Mankind%20is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"66.54%",13,12 """within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.""%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"64.82%",11
"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell will be cryogenically stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"18.25%",12,12 "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"77.83%",12
"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.31%",13,12 "China will land a man on Mars by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"43.08%",13
"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"37.08%",13,12 "Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.20%",15
"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"35.00%",12,12 "Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"57.00%",13
"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"86.83%",12,12 "The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.88%",25
"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.58%",12,12 """At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.21%",14
"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.17%",12,12 "GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"41.54%",13
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.00%",26,11 "By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"93.25%",12
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.82%",22,11 "At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"23.67%",12
"GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"41.54%",13,11 "Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"23.38%",24
"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""within%205 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"64.82%",11,11 "“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.91%",11
"Will any of the NYT Coronavirus vaccine tracker numbers increase between 9am PST Fri 11/20 and 9am PST Sun 11/22?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20any of the NYT Coronavirus vaccine tracker numbers increase between 9am PST Fri 11/20 and 9am PST Sun 11/22?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"76.33%",15,11 """there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.""%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20.73%",11
"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to become a top-1000 site by 2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.00%",12,11 "Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.00%",14
"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.27%",11,11 "Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"5.42%",12
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.88%",25,11 "some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.77%",13
"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.20%",15,11 "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.86%",14
"Will any LessWrong post made on Friday 11/20 get more than 100 karma by 9am PST on Sun 11/22?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20any LessWrong post made on Friday 11/20 get more than 100 karma by 9am PST on Sun 11/22?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.54%",13,11 "With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.92%",13
"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""In%20the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"75.17%",12,11 "By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"31.38%",13
"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"38.64%",11,11 "No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"45.31%",13
"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.08%",12,11 "At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.08%",12
"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"57.00%",13,11 "The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.43%",14
"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"76.77%",13,11 """By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"16.33%",12
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"44.63%",24,11 "Trump will run for president in 2024","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20.38%",13
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"23.38%",24,11 "The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.42%",12
"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.00%",11,11 "SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"13.67%",12
"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.00%",14,11 "Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"45.69%",13
"Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"5.42%",12,11 "In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.00%",11
"Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"31.64%",11,11 "Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"44.08%",12
"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"65.93%",14,11 "Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.18%",11
"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"68.67%",12,11 "Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"65.93%",14
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.86%",14,11 "Trump wins the 2020 election.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.54%",13
"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone a woolly mammoth by 2040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.57%",14,11 "Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"68.67%",12
"With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.92%",13,11 "Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"31.64%",11
"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030 organized religions will have no political influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.29%",14,11 "Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.79%",14
"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.91%",11,11 "Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.29%",14
"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will land a man on Mars by 2050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"43.08%",13,11 "Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.09%",11
"SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"13.67%",12,11 "“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.00%",11
"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""At%20least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.21%",14,11 "Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"21.27%",11
"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""By%20March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"16.33%",12,11 "We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"52.69%",13
"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.79%",14,11 "50 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.65%",34
"Trump will run for president in 2024","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will run for president in 2024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20.38%",13,11 "The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20""Grognor""%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"45.92%",13
"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama will run for office before 2021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"21.27%",11,11 "Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.00%",12
"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"45.92%",13,11 "Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.54%",13
"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.42%",12,11 "People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.09%",11
"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will win the 2024 presidential election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"45.69%",13,11 "Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24.75%",12
"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.18%",11,11 "'President Mike Pence'","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.06%",16
"Trump wins the 2020 election.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins the 2020 election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.54%",13,11 """In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones""%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"75.17%",12
"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24.75%",12,11 "Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"22.08%",12
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"77.83%",12,11 "“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.42%",12
"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden gets coronavirus in 2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.09%",11,11 "“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.46%",13
"50 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.65%",34,11 "“China will break apart by 2030”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24.60%",10
"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.54%",13,11 "Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"27.79%",14
"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.00%",11,11 "Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46.70%",10
"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"44.08%",12,11 "Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"34.38%",16
"People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.09%",11,11 "Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"15.50%",12
"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"52.69%",13,11 "Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"13.14%",14
"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.77%",13,11 "Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.92%",12
"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.43%",14,11 "By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"16.00%",10
"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""there%20is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20.73%",11,11 "Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.10%",10
"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"23.67%",12,11 "By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"13.08%",12
"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"93.25%",12,11 "We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20""do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation""?%20They%20answer%20""yes"".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.92%",13
"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"45.31%",13,11 "EU to dissolve by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"39.45%",11
"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"31.38%",13,11
"'President Mike Pence'","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.06%",16,11
"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"75.09%",11,10
"Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.
http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.
http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"19.80%",10,10
"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies of Coronavirus in 2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.36%",11,10
"Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"48.00%",10,10
"Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.30%",10,10
"WWIII starts before 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts before 2030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.86%",14,10
"Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner = POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.20%",10,10
"Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.64%",11,10
"Airbnb to be acquired by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to be acquired by 2025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"34.64%",11,10
"Will Rob Wiblin post more than 12 tweets (not including retweets) between 9am PST on Fri 11/20 and 9am PST on Sun 11/22?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20Rob Wiblin post more than 12 tweets (not including retweets) between 9am PST on Fri 11/20 and 9am PST on Sun 11/22?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"52.69%",13,10
"P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and proven by 2040 --Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"44.17%",12,10
"Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.10%",10,10
"A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"41.30%",10,10
"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"34.38%",16,10
"By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"15.80%",10,10
"“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.42%",12,10
"We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.92%",13,10
"Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"13.14%",14,10
"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"70.67%",12,10
"Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46.70%",10,10
"Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"27.79%",14,10
"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.46%",13,10
"EU to dissolve by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to dissolve by 2040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"39.45%",11,10
"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.92%",12,10
"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"52.73%",11,10
"By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"13.08%",12,10
"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"15.50%",12,10
"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.91%",11,10
"A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"12.09%",11,10
"By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"16.00%",10,10
"The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6.09%",11,10
"HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.09%",11,10
"Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.50%",10,10
"Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. "Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years.
By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20
By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"77.10%",10,10 By%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"77.10%",10
"More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.38%",13,10 "P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"44.17%",12
"The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"78.90%",10,10 "By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"30.90%",10
"“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.46%",13,10 "Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20""very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.64%",11
"“China will break apart by 2030”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will break apart by 2030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24.60%",10,10 """. The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.""%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.46%",13
"Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.60%",10,10 "Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.08%",13
"In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20.40%",10,10 "In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.36%",14
"homosexuality criminalized in the US","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized in the US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.50%",10,10 "1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"41.08%",13
"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"60.36%",11,10 "At least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20""anarchist""%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36.82%",11
"Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"22.08%",12,10 "A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"41.30%",10
""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="".%20The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.46%",13,10 "By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.46%",13
"By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"30.90%",10,10 "The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6.09%",11
"Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.08%",13,10 "HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.09%",11
"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.30%",10,10 "The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"78.90%",10
"In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.36%",14,10 "In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20.40%",10
"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"21.70%",10,10 "Airbnb to be acquired by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"34.64%",11
"1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets will have been cataloged by 2035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"41.08%",13,10 "By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"75.09%",11
"At least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36.82%",11,10 "By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"15.80%",10
"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.36%",11
"Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"48.00%",10
"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"52.73%",11
"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.30%",10
"Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.50%",10
"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"21.70%",10
"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"60.36%",11
"WWIII starts before 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.86%",14
"homosexuality criminalized in the US","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.50%",10
"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.91%",11
"Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.30%",10
"Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.60%",10
"Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.20%",10
"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"70.67%",12
"Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.
http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.
http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"19.80%",10
"More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.38%",13
"A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"12.09%",11
1 Title URL Platform Binary question? Percentage # Forecasts # Forecasters
2 Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%2050%20prediction%20questions%20embedded%20in%20LessWrong%20posts%20and%20comments%20this%20month?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 56.34% 56.39% 336 337 138
3 Will more than 50 people predict on this post? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more than 50 people predict on this post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more%20than%2050%20people%20predict%20on%20this%20post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 81.86% 81.90% 227 228 120
4 Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI cause an existential catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 36.85% 158 102
5 Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20without%20additional%20intervention%20from%20the%20existing%20AI%20Alignment%20research%20community?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 52.70% 137 95
6 Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20arms%20race%20dynamic%20in%20the%20lead-up%20to%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 75.52% 113 91
7 The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20new%20English%20Strain%20is%20at%20least%2050%%20more%20infectious%20than%20the%20currently%20dominant%20American%20strain%20of%20Covid-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 62.91% 63.37% 207 211 89
8 Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20single%20AGI%20or%20AGI%20project%20achieve%20a%20decisive%20strategic%20advantage?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 61.63% 115 86
9 How vivid is your visual imagination? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid is your visual imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 50.68% 119 77
10 Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%20deep%20learning%20with%20small%20variations,%20without%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 33.50% 110 77
11 Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20> 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 42.70% 107 76
12 Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20we%20build%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 11.79% 100 75
13 How vivid is your sound imagination? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid is your sound imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20sound%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 61.17% 106 74
14 Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20another%20AI%20Winter%20(a%20period%20commonly%20referred%20to%20as%20such)%20before%20we%20develop%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 28.63% 95 72
15 Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%201-3%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 43.12% 112 71
16 There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20an%20additional%20distinct%20large%20wave%20of%20Covid-19%20infections%20in%20the%20United%20States%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 60.43% 58.18% 145 158 69
17 How vivid is your taste imagination? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid is your taste imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20taste%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 25.73% 84 69
18 How vivid is your smell imagination? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid is your smell imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20smell%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 25.41% 82 68
19 Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20need%20>%203%20breakthroughs%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning%20to%20get%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 25.38% 84 67
20 Do you have a type of Synaesthesia? How frequently do you think in words? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you have a type of Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 19.76% 78.13% 87 86 66
21 How frequently do you think in words? Do you have a type of Synaesthesia? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently do you think in words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 78.13% 19.76% 86 87 66
22 Do you have an internal monologue? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you have an internal monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 82.28% 80 63
23 How vivid is your touch imagination? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid is your touch imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 36.13% 79 62
24 How good is your memory? How much control do you have over your mind? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good is your memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20much%20control%20do%20you%20have%20over%20your%20mind?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 53.25% 45.59% 77 76 61
25 How much control do you have over your mind? How good is your memory? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20much control do you have over your mind?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 45.59% 53.25% 76 77 61
26 Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 42.76% 85 57
27 Trump will win a second term https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will win a second term&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20win%20a%20second%20term&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 46.20% 74 54
28 Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling? Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 24.51% 31.56% 75 66 52
29 Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus? Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20continue%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 31.56% 24.51% 66 75 52
30 Will the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020? Will the post "Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong" get more than 80 karma by December 1st? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the Hedonometer show an average happiness above 6.2 for Christmas day 2020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the%20post%20"Embedded%20Interactive%20Predictions%20on%20LessWrong"%20get%20more%20than%2080%20karma%20by%20December%201st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 32.77% 89.52% 93 83 49
31 Will the post "Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong" get more than 80 karma by December 1st? Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the post "Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Having%20a%20button/prompt%20for%20Elicit%20on%20LW%20would%20increase%20usage%20by%20at%20least%205x&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 89.52% 60.22% 83 41 45
32 Will interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5? By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20interest in a January forecasting club be greater than 3.5/5?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025%20bitcoin%20will%20no%20longer%20be%20the%20highest%20traded%20cryptocurrency.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 55.93% 55.49% 44 37 41
33 Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Having%20a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Singularity%20will%20not%20occur%20by%20the%20year%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 60.22% 68.71% 41 42 37
34 By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 55.49% 61.12% 37 42 35
35 A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202025,%20most%20of%20Russia%20will%20become%20part%20of%20the%20United%20States,%20or%20the%20reverse,%20or%20they%20will%20in%20some%20other%20manner%20become%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state,%20or%20part%20of%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 68.71% 0.79% 42 34 34
36 Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles? The Pope will be assassinated. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Pope%20will%20be%20assassinated.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 61.12% 3.03% 42 32 33
37 Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 0.79% 47.38% 34 47 32
38 The Pope will be assassinated. Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Pope will be assassinated.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 3.03% 36.91% 32 34 30
39 "There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin" --Bill Walker, BBC PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="There%20will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin" --Bill Walker, BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 2.91% 83.00% 33 40 29
40 The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 "There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin" --Bill Walker, BBC https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin"%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 38.97% 2.91% 31 33 29
41 PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020 The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will still survive by the end of 2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 83.00% 38.97% 40 31 29
42 Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling? Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 36.91% 54.94% 34 47 29
43 Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles? No military draft in the United States before 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 47.38% 90.27% 47 33 28
44 Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01? No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 54.94% 82.13% 47 32 28
45 Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 47.00% 34 28
46 Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 8.81% 31 28
47 No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organised%20religions%20will%20no%20longer%20exist%20in%20any%20meaningful%20way%20and%20religion%20will%20no%20longer%20have%20any%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 82.13% 8.68% 32 28 28
48 No military draft in the United States before 2020. Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military draft in the United States before 2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 90.27% 0.23% 33 26 28
49 Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence. Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 8.68% 40.24% 28 42 27
50 Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034 Trump wins Nobel https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 0.23% 10.55% 26 38 26
51 Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling? California will secede from the United States before 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 40.24% 0.68% 42 34 26
52 California will secede from the United States before 2021 Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will secede from the United States before 2021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 0.68% 1.88% 34 26 26
53 Trump wins Nobel Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 10.55% 46.84% 38 32 26
54 Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project. ...be an environmental disaster. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was an official NSA or CIA project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 1.88% 27.35% 26 25
55 Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling? For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality). https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 46.84% 58.56% 32 34 24
56 "I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases." https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="I%20predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 9.69% 26 23
57 Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. 50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 7.46% 24.39% 26 28 23
58 The Singularity will occur by 2050. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity will occur by 2050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 35.12% 25 23
59 50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 24.39% 7.46% 28 26 23
60 Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030 Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 84.11% 62.27% 27 26 22
61 Will there be an "Inverse AlphaFold" by end of 2025? By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there be an "Inverse AlphaFold" by end of 2025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 33.91% 6.67% 33 24 22
62 PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible. Will there be an "Inverse AlphaFold" by end of 2025? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20"Inverse%20AlphaFold"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 68.88% 33.91% 25 33 22
63 Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035. PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 19.35% 68.88% 23 25 22
64 By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI. Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 6.67% 19.35% 24 23 22
65 TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020 Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 58.15% 84.11% 39 27 21
66 For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality). TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 59.38% 58.15% 32 39 21
67 In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older. Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 26.36% 99.41% 25 22 21
68 Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus. Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 99.41% 20.48% 22 29 21
69 China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023. In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 7.45% 26.36% 22 25 20
70 Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black. Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 15.33% 60.84% 21 32 20
71 Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100. The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 21.64% 37.46% 22 24 20
72 Google will survive for 15 more years Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will survive for 15 more years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 88.38% 34.13% 21 47 20
73 Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. ...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020 organized religions will have no political influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 11.68% 70.75% 22 20 20
74 Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory. Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 4.74% 27.83% 23 35 20
75 Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates. Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 18.43% 4.74% 23 19
76 Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 54.20% 21.64% 20 22 19
77 Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies. Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 60.07% 11.68% 30 22 19
78 Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe? Google will survive for 15 more years https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 39.69% 88.38% 35 21 18
79 Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment? China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 56.94% 7.45% 35 22 19
80 No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040. Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 86.75% 15.33% 24 21 19
81 Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 2.21% 72.43% 19 23 19
82 United States will invade Australia and take over Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States will invade Australia and take over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 10.00% 56.94% 21 35 19
83 90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 47.05% 83.14% 21 22 19
84 Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 6.95% 20 19
85 No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020. United States will invade Australia and take over https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 74.85% 10.00% 20 21 19
86 The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025. Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 72.43% 39.69% 23 35 19
87 Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors? No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 64.80% 86.75% 40 24 18
88 Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. 90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 34.33% 47.05% 45 21 18
89 Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort. Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 69.74% 54.20% 19 20 18
90 The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct? No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 36.67% 74.85% 21 20 18
91 What percentage of people experience a "Clogged drainpipe" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge) Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage of people experience a "Clogged drainpipe" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 64.34% 2.21% 50 19 18
92 We will make First Contact before we will have AGI. ...all-things-considered, be good for the world. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will make First Contact before we will have AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 12.05% 81.81% 21 26 18
93 “No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.” ...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 40.27% 17.37% 26 19 18
94 Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence ...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 3.32% 50.74% 22 19 18
95 The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade ...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 67.55% 36.45% 22 20 18
96 Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican. There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 51.78% 64.28% 18 18
97 There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023. We will make First Contact before we will have AGI. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 64.28% 12.05% 18 21 18
98 A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020. Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 21.62% 64.80% 21 40 17
99 Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can. The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 29.78% 67.55% 32 22 17
100 It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads “No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 1.72% 40.27% 18 26 17
101 My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028 What percentage of people experience a "Clogged drainpipe" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20"Clogged%20drainpipe"%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 8.39% 64.34% 18 50 17
102 The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020. Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 83.95% 3.32% 21 22 17
103 Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020. Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 12.79% 51.78% 19 18 17
104 aliens invade earth in 2023 A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade earth in 2023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 0.94% 21.62% 18 21 17
105 Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen. The strategy-stealing assumption is "a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run). https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20"a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 47.17% 33.27% 23 26 17
106 ...be an environmental disaster. The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an environmental disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 30.95% 83.95% 19 21 17
107 Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032 '2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will not have established moon bases by 2032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 69.33% 1.80% 18 25 17
108 '2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 1.80% 47.17% 25 23 17
109 Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030 Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial general intelligence by 2030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 26.89% 69.33% 19 18 17
110 A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 “One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 30.95% 35.00% 20 23 17
111 “One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.” A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 35.00% 30.95% 23 20 17
112 An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years. My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 8.12% 8.39% 17 18 16
113 Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable "in ten thousand years, or so" Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable "in ten thousand years, or so"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 19.11% 12.79% 19 16
114 If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)? It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 77.71% 1.72% 17 18 16
115 By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications. Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 34.67% 26.89% 18 19 16
116 US presidents term limits abolished aliens invade earth in 2023 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents term limits abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 2.24% 0.94% 17 18 16
117 The strategy-stealing assumption is "a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run). Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing assumption is "a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 29.04% 4.13% 24 16 16
118 Will the UK terrorism threat level be ‘severe’ at 9am PST on Sun 11/22? An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the UK terrorism threat level be ‘severe’ at 9am PST on Sun 11/22?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 81.00% 8.12% 24 17 16
119 Man will travel to Mars by 2030. If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will travel to Mars by 2030. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 42.89% 77.71% 18 17 16
120 Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 95.32% 4.90% 19 20 16
121 Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009. US presidents term limits abolished https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 35.53% 2.24% 19 17 16
122 Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX) Man will travel to Mars by 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 4.13% 42.89% 16 18 16
123 A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment. Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 4.90% 35.53% 20 19 16
124 An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 57.78% 18 16
125 Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021. By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 11.81% 34.67% 16 18 15
126 If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it? Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable "in ten thousand years, or so" https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 73.94% 19.11% 17 19 15
127 If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity? Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 29.44% 95.32% 16 19 15
128 If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans? Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 66.47% 59.36% 17 25 15
129 Will the title of the New York Times front page article on Sun 11/22 include any of the words: ‘coronavirus,’ ‘COVID-19,’ ‘COVID,’ or ‘SARS-CoV-2’? Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the title of the New York Times front page article on Sun 11/22 include any of the words: ‘coronavirus,’ ‘COVID-19,’ ‘COVID,’ or ‘SARS-CoV-2’?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 25.33% 55.18% 24 17 15
130 Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans). https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20 life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 55.18% 28.00% 17 20 15
131 Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed. If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 80.50% 73.94% 18 17 15
132 Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31 If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 14.48% 29.44% 25 16 15
133 ...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 64.47% 66.47% 15 17 15
134 The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans). Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 28.00% 14.48% 20 25 15
135 A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020 Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 43.47% 76.55% 19 20 15
136 Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture? The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 56.90% 78.12% 29 17 15
137 Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs? Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 59.36% 56.90% 25 29 15
138 Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 3.71% 17 15
139 There will NOT be a "World War III" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's "allies" and NATO and/or western europe) Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will NOT be a "World War III" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's "allies" and NATO and/or western europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 93.31% 92.69% 16 15
140 C still widely in use in the 2020s Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still widely in use in the 2020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 93.53% 11.81% 15 16 15
141 USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China. There will NOT be a "World War III" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's "allies" and NATO and/or western europe) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will collapse before the People's Republic of China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20"World%20War%20III"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20"allies"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 41.47% 93.31% 17 16 15
142 Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time. C still widely in use in the 2020s https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 92.69% 93.53% 16 15 15
143 "by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system" A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="by%202030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 6.20% 43.47% 15 19 14
144 Will we understand the content of a message from outer space? USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we understand the content of a message from outer space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 47.39% 41.47% 18 17 14
145 The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years. In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 11.73% 9.47% 15 14
146 Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency. North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 87.18% 5.94% 17 14
147 The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 11.73% 15
148 I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 82.20% 15
149 If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 17.39% 18
150 Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 7.00% 18
151 The message begins with "Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow". Should we execute it? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 7.86% 14
152 By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 53.00% 14
153 Will we understand the content of a message from outer space? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 47.39% 18
154 "by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system" https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 6.20% 15
155 "Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs." --James Miller https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs."%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 9.55% 20
156 Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 14.00% 15
157 By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 28.21% 14
158 Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 11.19% 16 14
159 If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form? The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 17.39% 17.00% 18 15 14
160 The message begins with "Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow". Should we execute it? Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message begins with "Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow". Should we execute it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 7.86% 87.18% 14 17 14
161 ...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water) A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 18.07% 8.79% 15 14 14
162 Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license. The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 14.00% 9.82% 15 17 14
163 In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 9.47% 30.26% 15 19 14
164 The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican. Humanity still a thing in 2036 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 17.00% 89.00% 15 13 14
165 "Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs." --James Miller By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="Within%20ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs." --James Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 9.55% 38.31% 20 13 14
166 I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years. By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 82.20% 11.08% 15 13 14
167 The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025. Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 9.82% 10.69% 17 16 14
168 North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020 Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, "How to create a mind") https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 5.94% 26.75% 17 16 14
169 By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone. USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 53.00% 4.50% 14 16 14
170 The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025. The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 30.26% 44.46% 19 26 14
171 By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 28.21% 29.79% 14 14
172 Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029. ETI is AGI https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 7.00% 84.61% 18 14
173 A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin. Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 8.79% 32.06% 14 16 14
174 By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance There be a "SETI Winter" before First Contact. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20"SETI%20Winter"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 44.15% 73.89% 13 19 13
175 ETI is AGI We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 84.61% 40.84% 18 19 13
176 Humanity still a thing in 2036 Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still a thing in 2036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 89.00% 29.33% 13 18 13
177 There be a "SETI Winter" before First Contact. Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be a "SETI Winter" before First Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 73.89% 27.64% 19 14 13
178 We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact. The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 40.84% 14.62% 19 13 13
179 The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026. North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 14.62% 5.33% 13 15 13
180 If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI "spaceship" be larger than 1m in size? Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI "spaceship" be larger than 1m in size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 51.36% 85.31% 14 16 13
181 Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles) In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 29.33% 14.69% 18 13 13
182 Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years. By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI won't happen in the next 10 years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 85.31% 44.15% 16 13 13
183 Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI "spaceship" be larger than 1m in size? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20"spaceship"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 33.75% 51.36% 16 14 13
184 ...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land. Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 37.07% 9.47% 15 13
185 Will the number of active COVID cases in California increase by more than 15K between Fri 11/20 and Sun 11/22? Truly "Pilotless" air travel will be the standard in 2050. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the number of active COVID cases in California increase by more than 15K between Fri 11/20 and Sun 11/22?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20"Pilotless"%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 71.29% 62.71% 21 14 13
186 Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt Trump dies of COVID-19 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 32.06% 6.63% 16 32 13
187 "The Essential Workers" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020. Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="The%20Essential Workers" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 40.27% 33.75% 15 16 13
188 North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022 Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 5.33% 13.37% 15 19 13
189 All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house. The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 4.92% 18.54% 13 13
190 Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050 All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 29.79% 4.92% 14 13 13
191 ...all-things-considered, be good for the world. "The Essential Workers" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be good for the world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="The%20Essential%20Workers"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 81.32% 40.27% 19 15 13
192 Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025. Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 9.47% 4.08% 15 13 13
193 Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson 10 million https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 27.64% 8.42% 14 36 13
194 USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021 The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 4.50% 51.07% 16 14 13
195 Truly "Pilotless" air travel will be the standard in 2050. The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20"Pilotless" air travel will be the standard in 2050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 62.71% 30.40% 14 15 13
196 The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033. In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 18.54% 46.07% 13 14 13
197 In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 14.69% 20.25% 13 16 13
198 Trump dies of COVID-19 “By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies of COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 6.63% 35.00% 32 12 13
199 By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S. At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 38.31% 78.92% 13 13
200 10 million Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 8.42% 52.47% 36 15 13
201 Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, "How to create a mind") the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, "How to create a mind")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 26.75% 7.64% 16 14 13
202 Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years. Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 10.69% 49.24% 16 33 13
203 Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060 The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 13.37% 46.69% 19 13 13
204 By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. 1 year continuous human habitation of the moon https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065, a majority of the world will be vegan. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 11.08% 15.93% 13 14 13
205 Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070. If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to "train it away"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20"train%20it%20away"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 4.08% 63.15% 13 26 13
206 Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 0.60% 70.00% 15 12
207 If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up? If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 70.00% 43.11% 15 19 12
208 If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner? “There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 43.11% 3.83% 19 12 12
209 The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship. Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 46.69% 63.33% 13 15 12
210 Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 69.69% 1.31% 13 12
211 Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information? There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 52.47% 63.00% 15 13 12
212 There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020. Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 63.00% 0.60% 13 15 12
213 Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020 Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 4.64% 33.58% 14 12 12
214 In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older. 100 million https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 46.07% 0.79% 14 29 12
215 North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030 The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 20.25% 17.50% 16 14 12
216 The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030. Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 17.50% 69.69% 14 13 12
217 the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 7.64% 37.08% 14 13 12
218 No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030. Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 60.83% 18.25% 12 12
219 ...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco. No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen traffic in San Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 58.67% 60.83% 12 12
220 Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual. We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 79.65% 24.33% 17 12 12
221 Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 7.71% 4.64% 14 12
222 We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 24.33% 7.71% 12 14 12
223 “There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.” 'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 3.83% 14.17% 12 12
224 Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe? Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first contact cause an existential catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 49.24% 14.33% 33 15 12
225 By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 2.73% 86.83% 15 12 12
226 100 million By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 0.79% 2.73% 29 15 12
227 Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes. "Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150." -lukeprog https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150."%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 14.33% 66.54% 15 13 12
228 1 year continuous human habitation of the moon They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year continuous human habitation of the moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 15.93% 55.57% 14 12
229 If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to "train it away"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques) The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to "train it away"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 63.15% 40.82% 26 22 13
230 Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper. A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 63.33% 38.64% 15 11 12
231 The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035 As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 51.07% 67.79% 14 12
232 At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance ) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 78.92% 55.00% 13 26 12
233 The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025 Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the "same"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some "final being"? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20"same"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20"final%20being"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 30.40% 26.27% 15 11 12
234 "Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150." -lukeprog "within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million." --Dennis Mangan https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="Mankind%20is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150." -lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million."%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 66.54% 64.82% 13 11 12
235 Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored. No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell will be cryogenically stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 18.25% 77.83% 12 12
236 Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050. China will land a man on Mars by 2050. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 1.31% 43.08% 13 12
237 Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 37.08% 33.20% 13 15 12
238 “By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.” Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 35.00% 57.00% 12 13 12
239 Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP. The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 86.83% 28.88% 12 25 12
240 Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030 "At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150." https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 33.58% 56.21% 12 14 12
241 'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_ https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 14.17% 41.54% 12 13 12
242 The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance ) By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 55.00% 93.25% 26 12 11
243 The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 40.82% 23.67% 22 12 11
244 GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_ Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 41.54% 23.38% 13 24 11
245 "within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million." --Dennis Mangan “In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="within%205 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million." --Dennis Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 64.82% 40.91% 11 11
246 Will any of the NYT Coronavirus vaccine tracker numbers increase between 9am PST Fri 11/20 and 9am PST Sun 11/22? "there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years." - Scott Adams https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20any of the NYT Coronavirus vaccine tracker numbers increase between 9am PST Fri 11/20 and 9am PST Sun 11/22?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years."%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 76.33% 20.73% 15 11 11
247 Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020 Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to become a top-1000 site by 2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 9.00% 10.00% 12 14 11
248 Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the "same"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some "final being"? Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of ETI: Are they all the "same"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some "final being"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 26.27% 5.42% 11 12 11
249 The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable) some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 28.88% 3.77% 25 13 11
250 Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact? The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 33.20% 56.86% 15 14 11
251 Will any LessWrong post made on Friday 11/20 get more than 100 karma by 9am PST on Sun 11/22? With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20any LessWrong post made on Friday 11/20 get more than 100 karma by 9am PST on Sun 11/22?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 17.54% 8.92% 13 11
252 "In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones" --Marc Andreessen By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="In%20the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones" --Marc Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 75.17% 31.38% 12 13 11
253 A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041. No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 38.64% 45.31% 11 13 11
254 At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 29.08% 12 11
255 Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023 The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 57.00% 28.43% 13 14 11
256 The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards. "By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation." https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 76.77% 16.33% 13 12 11
257 The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals. Trump will run for president in 2024 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 44.63% 20.38% 24 13 11
258 Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 23.38% 2.42% 24 12 11
259 “I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 8.00% 13.67% 11 12 11
260 Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025. Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 10.00% 45.69% 14 13 11
261 Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 5.42% 1.00% 12 11 11
262 Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 31.64% 44.08% 11 12 11
263 Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 65.93% 10.18% 14 11 11
264 Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 68.67% 65.93% 12 14 11
265 The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045 Trump wins the 2020 election. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 56.86% 47.54% 14 13 11
266 They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040 Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone a woolly mammoth by 2040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 55.57% 68.67% 14 12 11
267 With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 8.92% 31.64% 13 11 11
268 Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence. Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030 organized religions will have no political influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 10.29% 10.79% 14 11
269 “In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.” Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 40.91% 10.29% 11 14 11
270 China will land a man on Mars by 2050. Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will land a man on Mars by 2050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 43.08% 28.09% 13 11 11
271 SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021. “I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 13.67% 8.00% 12 11 11
272 "At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150." Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="At%20least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 56.21% 21.27% 14 11 11
273 "By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation." We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="By%20March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 16.33% 52.69% 12 13 11
274 Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years. 50 million https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 10.79% 1.65% 14 34 11
275 Trump will run for president in 2024 The LW user account "Grognor" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will run for president in 2024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20"Grognor"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 20.38% 45.92% 13 11
276 Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021 Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama will run for office before 2021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 21.27% 9.00% 11 12 11
277 The LW user account "Grognor" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years. Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW user account "Grognor" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 45.92% 3.54% 13 11
278 The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life. People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 2.42% 33.09% 12 11 11
279 Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will win the 2024 presidential election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 45.69% 24.75% 13 12 11
280 Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election 'President Mike Pence' https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 10.18% 14.06% 11 16 11
281 Trump wins the 2020 election. "In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones" --Marc Andreessen https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins the 2020 election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 47.54% 75.17% 13 12 11
282 Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA. Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 24.75% 22.08% 12 11
283 No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025. “By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 77.83% 7.42% 12 11
284 Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020 “The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden gets coronavirus in 2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 28.09% 11.46% 11 13 11
285 50 million “China will break apart by 2030” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 1.65% 24.60% 34 10 11
286 Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022 Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 3.54% 27.79% 13 14 11
287 In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia. Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 1.00% 46.70% 11 10 11
288 Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030 Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 44.08% 34.38% 12 16 11
289 People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts. Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 33.09% 15.50% 11 12 11
290 We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040 Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 52.69% 13.14% 13 14 11
291 some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 3.77% 10.92% 13 12 11
292 The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045. By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 28.43% 16.00% 14 10 11
293 "there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years." - Scott Adams Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="there%20is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years." - Scott Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 20.73% 26.10% 11 10 11
294 At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 23.67% 13.08% 12 11
295 By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. We ask ETI "do we live in a simulation"? They answer "yes". https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation"?%20They%20answer%20"yes".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 93.25% 17.92% 12 13 11
296 No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo EU to dissolve by 2040. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 45.31% 39.45% 13 11 11
297 By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20 By%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 31.38% 77.10% 13 10 11
298 'President Mike Pence' P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 14.06% 44.17% 16 12 11
By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 75.09% 11 10
Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/ https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 19.80% 10 10
Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies of Coronavirus in 2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 1.36% 11 10
Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 48.00% 10 10
Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 11.30% 10 10
WWIII starts before 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts before 2030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 8.86% 14 10
Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner = POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 4.20% 10 10
Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as "very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?" https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as "very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 29.64% 11 10
Airbnb to be acquired by 2025 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to be acquired by 2025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 34.64% 11 10
Will Rob Wiblin post more than 12 tweets (not including retweets) between 9am PST on Fri 11/20 and 9am PST on Sun 11/22? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20Rob Wiblin post more than 12 tweets (not including retweets) between 9am PST on Fri 11/20 and 9am PST on Sun 11/22?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 52.69% 13 10
P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and proven by 2040 --Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 44.17% 12 10
Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 26.10% 10 10
A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 41.30% 10 10
Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 34.38% 16 10
By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 15.80% 10 10
“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 7.42% 12 10
We ask ETI "do we live in a simulation"? They answer "yes". https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask ETI "do we live in a simulation"? They answer "yes".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 17.92% 13 10
Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 13.14% 14 10
SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 70.67% 12 10
Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 46.70% 10 10
Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 27.79% 14 10
By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 33.46% 13 10
EU to dissolve by 2040. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to dissolve by 2040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 39.45% 11 10
Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 10.92% 12 10
No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 52.73% 11 10
By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 13.08% 12 10
Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 15.50% 12 10
HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 56.91% 11 10
A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 12.09% 11 10
By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 16.00% 10 10
The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII). https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 6.09% 11 10
HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 7.09% 11 10
Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 0.50% 10 10
Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 77.10% 10 10
More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 26.38% 13 10
The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 78.90% 10 10
“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 11.46% 13 10
“China will break apart by 2030” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will break apart by 2030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 24.60% 10 10
Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 55.60% 10 10
299 In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB). By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 20.40% 30.90% 10 10
300 homosexuality criminalized in the US Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as "very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?" https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized in the US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 2.50% 29.64% 10 11 10
301 By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000 ". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form." --Dan King https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form."%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 60.36% 11.46% 11 13 10
302 Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070 Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 22.08% 29.08% 12 13 10
303 ". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form." --Dan King In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=".%20The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form." --Dan King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 11.46% 9.36% 13 14 10
304 By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms. 1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 30.90% 41.08% 10 13 10
305 Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025 At least one self-described "anarchist" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20"anarchist"%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 29.08% 36.82% 13 11 10
306 Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 17.30% 41.30% 10 10
307 In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 9.36% 33.46% 14 13 10
308 Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII). https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 21.70% 6.09% 10 11 10
309 1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035 HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets will have been cataloged by 2035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 41.08% 7.09% 13 11 10
310 At least one self-described "anarchist" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021. The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least one self-described "anarchist" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 36.82% 78.90% 11 10 10
311 In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB). https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 20.40% 10
312 Airbnb to be acquired by 2025 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 34.64% 11
313 By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 75.09% 11
314 By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 15.80% 10
315 Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 1.36% 11
316 Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 48.00% 10
317 No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 52.73% 11
318 Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 17.30% 10
319 Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 0.50% 10
320 Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 21.70% 10
321 By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 60.36% 11
322 WWIII starts before 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 8.86% 14
323 homosexuality criminalized in the US https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 2.50% 10
324 HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 56.91% 11
325 Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 11.30% 10
326 Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 55.60% 10
327 Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 4.20% 10
328 SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 70.67% 12
329 Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/ https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 19.80% 10
330 More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 26.38% 13
331 A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 12.09% 11
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341

3585
data/elicit-questions.json
View File

File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff

240
data/goodjudmentopen-questions.csv
View File

@ -1,116 +1,124 @@
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts","# Forecasters" "Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts"
"Which NFL team will win Super Bowl LV?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1898-which-nfl-team-will-win-super-bowl-lv","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","51","38" "Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"54%","56"
"Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"50%","19","17" "Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912-will-russia-conduct-a-flight-test-of-an-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-before-1-august-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"64%","58"
"Will the New START treaty be extended by Russia and the U.S. before 6 February 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1899-will-the-new-start-treaty-be-extended-by-russia-and-the-u-s-before-6-february-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"95%","68","44" "Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1909-will-chinese-businessman-jack-ma-physically-appear-in-public-outside-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"1%","86"
"Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","25","20" "Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"10%","150"
"Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union","Good Judgment Open",true,"66%","44","37" "When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1914-when-will-the-public-health-agency-of-canada-phac-report-1-1-million-or-more-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-canada","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","75"
"Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"47%","45","34" "How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1913-how-many-u-s-states-will-have-an-infection-rate-of-1-0-or-greater-for-covid-19-as-of-31-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","80"
"Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022","Good Judgment Open",true,"1%","44","27" "Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","88"
"Before 15 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1892-before-15-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","86","78" "Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1904-will-the-scottish-national-party-win-a-majority-of-seats-in-the-next-scottish-parliament-election","Good Judgment Open",true,"90%","121"
"When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","40","30" "Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"15%","50"
"At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","76","65" "How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902-how-many-seats-will-the-united-russia-party-win-in-the-2021-russian-state-duma-elections","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","70"
"Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","63","52" "Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1906-before-15-july-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-moldova-s-parliament","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","39"
"How many seats in the Legislative Assembly will New Ideas (Nuevas Ideas) win in the 2021 Salvadoran legislative election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1889-how-many-seats-in-the-legislative-assembly-will-new-ideas-nuevas-ideas-win-in-the-2021-salvadoran-legislative-election","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","19","11" "When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1907-when-will-a-new-dutch-government-be-sworn-in-after-the-2021-general-election","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","73"
"What will be the closing price of Mercado Libre stock on 15 February 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1888-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-mercado-libre-stock-on-15-february-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","57","28" "Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"42%","49"
"How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the Americas Region as of 1 February 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1887-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-have-been-reported-by-the-world-health-organization-who-for-the-americas-region-as-of-1-february-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","190","83" "What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","94"
"How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United Kingdom as of 1 February 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1886-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-have-been-reported-by-the-world-health-organization-who-for-the-united-kingdom-as-of-1-february-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","232","94" "Which NFL team will win Super Bowl LV?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1898-which-nfl-team-will-win-super-bowl-lv","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","166"
"What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","85","50" "Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"52%","78"
"Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"18%","96","62" "Will the New START treaty be extended by Russia and the U.S. before 6 February 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1899-will-the-new-start-treaty-be-extended-by-russia-and-the-u-s-before-6-february-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"100%","217"
"When will Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies approve the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1890-when-will-mexico-s-chamber-of-deputies-approve-the-federal-law-for-the-regulation-of-cannabis","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","17","15" "Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","69"
"On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a number of daily new COVID-19 cases per 100k residents of 75.0 or higher?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1881-on-1-march-2021-how-many-states-will-have-a-number-of-daily-new-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-of-75-0-or-higher","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","181","83" "Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union","Good Judgment Open",true,"74%","128"
"On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1880-on-1-march-2021-how-many-states-will-have-a-covid-19-positivity-rate-greater-than-10-0","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","124","67" "Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"32%","120"
"Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1879-before-1-april-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-israel-s-knesset","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","166","114" "Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022","Good Judgment Open",true,"4%","67"
"At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","79","68" "Before 15 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1892-before-15-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea","Good Judgment Open",true,"3%","176"
"Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin","Good Judgment Open",true,"58%","89","60" "When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","138"
"Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00","Good Judgment Open",true,"4%","99","54" "At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","125"
"Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","288","158" "Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","83"
"Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","220","163" "How many seats in the Legislative Assembly will New Ideas (Nuevas Ideas) win in the 2021 Salvadoran legislative election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1889-how-many-seats-in-the-legislative-assembly-will-new-ideas-nuevas-ideas-win-in-the-2021-salvadoran-legislative-election","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","34"
"Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china","Good Judgment Open",true,"35%","164","119" "What will be the closing price of Mercado Libre stock on 15 February 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1888-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-mercado-libre-stock-on-15-february-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","181"
"Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"10%","206","169" "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the Americas Region as of 1 February 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1887-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-have-been-reported-by-the-world-health-organization-who-for-the-americas-region-as-of-1-february-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","566"
"Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers","Good Judgment Open",true,"40%","137","81" "How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United Kingdom as of 1 February 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1886-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-have-been-reported-by-the-world-health-organization-who-for-the-united-kingdom-as-of-1-february-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","602"
"Will the monthly occupancy level of European hotels next reach 50.0% or higher before June 2021, according to Smith Travel Research?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1874-will-the-monthly-occupancy-level-of-european-hotels-next-reach-50-0-or-higher-before-june-2021-according-to-smith-travel-research","Good Judgment Open",true,"36%","162","77" "What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","127"
"Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","160","89" "Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"15%","140"
"Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open",true,"10%","153","102" "When will Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies approve the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1890-when-will-mexico-s-chamber-of-deputies-approve-the-federal-law-for-the-regulation-of-cannabis","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","22"
"When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","120","72" "On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a number of daily new COVID-19 cases per 100k residents of 75.0 or higher?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1881-on-1-march-2021-how-many-states-will-have-a-number-of-daily-new-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-of-75-0-or-higher","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","292"
"Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher","Good Judgment Open",true,"58%","54","38" "On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1880-on-1-march-2021-how-many-states-will-have-a-covid-19-positivity-rate-greater-than-10-0","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","208"
"Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zero","Good Judgment Open",true,"10%","202","153" "Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1879-before-1-april-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-israel-s-knesset","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","217"
"Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020","Good Judgment Open",true,"92%","70","50" "At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","87"
"In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitution","Good Judgment Open",true,"66%","35","28" "Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin","Good Judgment Open",true,"44%","114"
"Before 21 January 2021, will the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) enter into a consent order that would allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to exit conservatorship?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1860-before-21-january-2021-will-the-federal-housing-finance-agency-fhfa-enter-into-a-consent-order-that-would-allow-fannie-mae-and-freddie-mac-to-exit-conservatorship","Good Judgment Open",true,"0%","63","43" "Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00","Good Judgment Open",true,"3%","122"
"What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloomberg","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","89","34" "Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","346"
"Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstan","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","65","27" "Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","295"
"Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1856-will-the-imf-estimate-for-world-gdp-growth-for-2021-be-higher-in-its-april-2021-world-economic-outlook-report-relative-to-its-october-2020-report","Good Judgment Open",true,"70%","203","140" "Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china","Good Judgment Open",true,"16%","204"
"Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peru","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","78","58" "Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"5%","259"
"Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively"" fell below 20%?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20","Good Judgment Open",true,"56%","274","154" "Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers","Good Judgment Open",true,"25%","183"
"Who will be appointed as the next leader of the Communist Party in Vietnam?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1848-who-will-be-appointed-as-the-next-leader-of-the-communist-party-in-vietnam","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","160","88" "Will the monthly occupancy level of European hotels next reach 50.0% or higher before June 2021, according to Smith Travel Research?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1874-will-the-monthly-occupancy-level-of-european-hotels-next-reach-50-0-or-higher-before-june-2021-according-to-smith-travel-research","Good Judgment Open",true,"20%","236"
"What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","315","203" "Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","201"
"How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","640","275" "Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open",true,"8%","181"
"How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","316","177" "When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","164"
"Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil","Good Judgment Open",true,"5%","226","176" "Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher","Good Judgment Open",true,"57%","60"
"Will the average price of a gallon of gasoline fall below $1.95 for any week before 2 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1847-will-the-average-price-of-a-gallon-of-gasoline-fall-below-1-95-for-any-week-before-2-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","289","120" "Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zero","Good Judgment Open",true,"10%","247"
"Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"3%","364","181" "Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020","Good Judgment Open",true,"85%","81"
"In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count","Good Judgment Open",true,"70%","176","112" "In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitution","Good Judgment Open",true,"66%","48"
"Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eia","Good Judgment Open",true,"95%","237","163" "What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloomberg","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","129"
"On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergency","Good Judgment Open",true,"85%","213","150" "Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstan","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","85"
"Between 13 November 2020 and 12 February 2021, will the closing price per barrel of WTI crude oil be higher than the closing price per barrel of Brent crude oil?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1839-between-13-november-2020-and-12-february-2021-will-the-closing-price-per-barrel-of-wti-crude-oil-be-higher-than-the-closing-price-per-barrel-of-brent-crude-oil","Good Judgment Open",true,"1%","224","101" "Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1856-will-the-imf-estimate-for-world-gdp-growth-for-2021-be-higher-in-its-april-2021-world-economic-outlook-report-relative-to-its-october-2020-report","Good Judgment Open",true,"79%","258"
"When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-region","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","186","82" "Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peru","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","103"
"Will the People's Republic of China (PRC) officially declare an air-defense identification zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1832-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-officially-declare-an-air-defense-identification-zone-adiz-over-any-part-of-the-south-china-sea-before-1-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"4%","291","194" "Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively"" fell below 20%?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20","Good Judgment Open",true,"50%","349"
"Between 9 November 2020 and 28 February 2021, will a country cease to formally recognize Taiwan?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1831-between-9-november-2020-and-28-february-2021-will-a-country-cease-to-formally-recognize-taiwan","Good Judgment Open",true,"4%","359","199" "Who will be appointed as the next leader of the Communist Party in Vietnam?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1848-who-will-be-appointed-as-the-next-leader-of-the-communist-party-in-vietnam","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","194"
"Will Russia and the People's Republic of China (PRC) conduct any joint naval exercises before 1 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1833-will-russia-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-conduct-any-joint-naval-exercises-before-1-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"","309","144" "What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","400"
"When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 35 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the Europe Region?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1834-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-35-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-europe-region","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","321","91" "How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","826"
"At close of business on 17 March 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 27 January 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1824-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-27-january-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","128","79" "How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","384"
"Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authority","Good Judgment Open",true,"10%","130","53" "Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil","Good Judgment Open",true,"","252"
"Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws","Good Judgment Open",true,"4%","216","131" "Will the average price of a gallon of gasoline fall below $1.95 for any week before 2 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1847-will-the-average-price-of-a-gallon-of-gasoline-fall-below-1-95-for-any-week-before-2-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"1%","342"
"Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019","Good Judgment Open",true,"90%","210","98" "Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"3%","388"
"How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","775","163" "In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count","Good Judgment Open",true,"","195"
"Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"","215","59" "Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eia","Good Judgment Open",true,"95%","257"
"Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir","Good Judgment Open",true,"5%","149","57" "On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergency","Good Judgment Open",true,"85%","235"
"Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conduct","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","122","40" "Between 13 November 2020 and 12 February 2021, will the closing price per barrel of WTI crude oil be higher than the closing price per barrel of Brent crude oil?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1839-between-13-november-2020-and-12-february-2021-will-the-closing-price-per-barrel-of-wti-crude-oil-be-higher-than-the-closing-price-per-barrel-of-brent-crude-oil","Good Judgment Open",true,"0%","243"
"Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022","Good Judgment Open",true,"99%","116","52" "When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-region","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","218"
"When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","337","138" "Will the People's Republic of China (PRC) officially declare an air-defense identification zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1832-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-officially-declare-an-air-defense-identification-zone-adiz-over-any-part-of-the-south-china-sea-before-1-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"5%","340"
"Before 21 January 2021, will the House of Representatives, pursuant to the 12th Amendment, vote to choose a president of the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1809-before-21-january-2021-will-the-house-of-representatives-pursuant-to-the-12th-amendment-vote-to-choose-a-president-of-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open",true,"","385","232" "Between 9 November 2020 and 28 February 2021, will a country cease to formally recognize Taiwan?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1831-between-9-november-2020-and-28-february-2021-will-a-country-cease-to-formally-recognize-taiwan","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","420"
"For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open",true,"28%","440","143" "Will Russia and the People's Republic of China (PRC) conduct any joint naval exercises before 1 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1833-will-russia-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-conduct-any-joint-naval-exercises-before-1-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"93%","349"
"What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","187","62" "When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 35 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the Europe Region?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1834-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-35-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-europe-region","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","360"
"What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1799-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-housing-starts-for-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","274","78" "At close of business on 17 March 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 27 January 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1824-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-27-january-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","134"
"When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1801-when-will-lebanon-s-parliament-give-a-vote-of-confidence-to-a-new-government","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","281","55" "Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authority","Good Judgment Open",true,"4%","164"
"Before 1 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation at sea between the forces of India and the People's Republic of China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1795-before-1-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-at-sea-between-the-forces-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china","Good Judgment Open",true,"1%","347","177" "Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws","Good Judgment Open",true,"4%","239"
"In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutional","Good Judgment Open",true,"96%","182","64" "Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019","Good Judgment Open",true,"95%","227"
"Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","320","146" "How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","973"
"At close of business on 27 January 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 December 2020?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1791-at-close-of-business-on-27-january-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-16-december-2020","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","178","111" "Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"","233"
"Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","214","97" "Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir","Good Judgment Open",true,"3%","162"
"When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788-when-will-25-000-or-more-fans-next-attend-a-premier-league-match","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","488","172" "Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conduct","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","129"
"Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom","Good Judgment Open",true,"10%","799","389" "Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022","Good Judgment Open",true,"99%","119"
"Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"5%","299","149" "When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","388"
"Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782-will-any-2020-california-election-results-be-altered-by-a-cyberattack-against-a-voting-system","Good Judgment Open",true,"0%","260","135" "For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open",true,"12%","513"
"Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"25%","437","133" "What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","215"
"When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-day","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","604","152" "What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1799-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-housing-starts-for-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","319"
"In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-system","Good Judgment Open",true,"90%","180","71" "When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1801-when-will-lebanon-s-parliament-give-a-vote-of-confidence-to-a-new-government","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","329"
"In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774-in-california-v-texas-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-reducing-the-penalty-amount-for-the-individual-mandate-of-the-affordable-care-act-aca-to-zero-rendered-the-individual-mandate-provision-unconstitutional","Good Judgment Open",true,"","288","72" "Before 1 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation at sea between the forces of India and the People's Republic of China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1795-before-1-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-at-sea-between-the-forces-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china","Good Judgment Open",true,"0%","368"
"Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics","Good Judgment Open",true,"4%","438","162" "In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutional","Good Judgment Open",true,"97%","190"
"How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","428","88" "Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","340"
"When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1762-when-will-the-eu-amend-its-own-resources-decision-to-help-finance-the-eu-s-proposed-covid-19-recovery-package","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","176","47" "Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","226"
"How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1760-how-many-cybertrucks-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","247","75" "When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788-when-will-25-000-or-more-fans-next-attend-a-premier-league-match","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","535"
"Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-service","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","182","70" "Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom","Good Judgment Open",true,"9%","911"
"Before 14 February 2021, will former King Juan Carlos I and/or former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont return to Spain?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1740-before-14-february-2021-will-former-king-juan-carlos-i-and-or-former-catalan-president-carles-puigdemont-return-to-spain","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","214","96" "Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"5%","329"
"Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1744-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-debut-a-passenger-vehicle-powered-by-a-solid-state-battery","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","189","52" "Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782-will-any-2020-california-election-results-be-altered-by-a-cyberattack-against-a-voting-system","Good Judgment Open",true,"","280"
"When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","432","92" "Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"","534"
"Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","247","123" "When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-day","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","675"
"Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used","Good Judgment Open",true,"3%","473","127" "In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-system","Good Judgment Open",true,"92%","183"
"When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1711-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-lines-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","818","253" "In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774-in-california-v-texas-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-reducing-the-penalty-amount-for-the-individual-mandate-of-the-affordable-care-act-aca-to-zero-rendered-the-individual-mandate-provision-unconstitutional","Good Judgment Open",true,"0%","299"
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","177","71" "Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics","Good Judgment Open",true,"5%","490"
"How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1698-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2021-and-2022-combined","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","166","44" "How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","440"
"How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1678-how-many-public-dc-fast-charge-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-united-states-by-31-december-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","159","29" "When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1762-when-will-the-eu-amend-its-own-resources-decision-to-help-finance-the-eu-s-proposed-covid-19-recovery-package","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","186"
"How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","816","134" "How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1760-how-many-cybertrucks-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","276"
"Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","939","343" "Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-service","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","205"
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law","Good Judgment Open",true,"70%","197","94" "Before 14 February 2021, will former King Juan Carlos I and/or former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont return to Spain?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1740-before-14-february-2021-will-former-king-juan-carlos-i-and-or-former-catalan-president-carles-puigdemont-return-to-spain","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","233"
"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"5%","804","371" "Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1744-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-debut-a-passenger-vehicle-powered-by-a-solid-state-battery","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","214"
"How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","219","67" "When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","472"
"How many total Fast Charge (&gt;22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","216","64" "Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","257"
"Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","329","181" "Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used","Good Judgment Open",true,"9%","530"
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-european-union-delay-and-or-relax-the-implementation-and-or-enforcement-of-any-of-its-co2-emission-performance-standards-for-new-passenger-cars-and-or-new-light-commercial-vehicles","Good Judgment Open",true,"","161","79" "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","185"
"What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1583-what-will-be-the-2022-industry-wide-average-cost-of-li-ion-batteries-used-in-battery-powered-electric-vehicles","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","217","85" "How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1698-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2021-and-2022-combined","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","176"
"What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)? ","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1582-what-total-percentage-of-global-vehicle-sales-in-2022-will-be-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-and-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-phevs","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","319","130" "How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1678-how-many-public-dc-fast-charge-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-united-states-by-31-december-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","165"
"Will there be a new prime minister of Italy before 24 January 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1502-will-there-be-a-new-prime-minister-of-italy-before-24-january-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"1%","825","263" "How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","907"
"Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1411-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-that-caps-administrative-fees-and-or-operating-profits-of-the-country-s-pension-fund-managers","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","247","95" "Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","1111"
"Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1412-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-nationalizing-private-pension-fund-assets","Good Judgment Open",true,"1%","273","123" "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law","Good Judgment Open",true,"72%","206"
"When will Donald Trump cease to be president of the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1290-when-will-donald-trump-cease-to-be-president-of-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","6445","2159" "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"5%","855"
"How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","234"
"How many total Fast Charge (&gt;22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","233"
"Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","339"
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-european-union-delay-and-or-relax-the-implementation-and-or-enforcement-of-any-of-its-co2-emission-performance-standards-for-new-passenger-cars-and-or-new-light-commercial-vehicles","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","163"
"What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1583-what-will-be-the-2022-industry-wide-average-cost-of-li-ion-batteries-used-in-battery-powered-electric-vehicles","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","221"
"What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)? ","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1582-what-total-percentage-of-global-vehicle-sales-in-2022-will-be-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-and-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-phevs","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","331"
"Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1411-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-that-caps-administrative-fees-and-or-operating-profits-of-the-country-s-pension-fund-managers","Good Judgment Open",true,"1%","253"
"Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1412-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-nationalizing-private-pension-fund-assets","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","284"
1 Title URL Platform Binary question? Percentage # Forecasts # Forecasters
2 Which NFL team will win Super Bowl LV? Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1898-which-nfl-team-will-win-super-bowl-lv https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021 Good Judgment Open false true none 54% 51 56 38
3 Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021? Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912-will-russia-conduct-a-flight-test-of-an-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-before-1-august-2021 Good Judgment Open true 50% 64% 19 58 17
4 Will the New START treaty be extended by Russia and the U.S. before 6 February 2021? Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1899-will-the-new-start-treaty-be-extended-by-russia-and-the-u-s-before-6-february-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1909-will-chinese-businessman-jack-ma-physically-appear-in-public-outside-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-before-1-april-2021 Good Judgment Open true 95% 1% 68 86 44
5 Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021? Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021 Good Judgment Open false true none 10% 25 150 20
6 Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union? When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1914-when-will-the-public-health-agency-of-canada-phac-report-1-1-million-or-more-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-canada Good Judgment Open true false 66% none 44 75 37
7 Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021? How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1913-how-many-u-s-states-will-have-an-infection-rate-of-1-0-or-greater-for-covid-19-as-of-31-march-2021 Good Judgment Open true false 47% none 45 80 34
8 Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022? Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea Good Judgment Open true 1% 2% 44 88 27
9 Before 15 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea? Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1892-before-15-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1904-will-the-scottish-national-party-win-a-majority-of-seats-in-the-next-scottish-parliament-election Good Judgment Open true 2% 90% 86 121 78
10 When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy? Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021 Good Judgment Open false true none 15% 40 50 30
11 At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world? How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902-how-many-seats-will-the-united-russia-party-win-in-the-2021-russian-state-duma-elections Good Judgment Open false none 76 70 65
12 Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia? Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1906-before-15-july-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-moldova-s-parliament Good Judgment Open false none 63 39 52
13 How many seats in the Legislative Assembly will New Ideas (Nuevas Ideas) win in the 2021 Salvadoran legislative election? When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1889-how-many-seats-in-the-legislative-assembly-will-new-ideas-nuevas-ideas-win-in-the-2021-salvadoran-legislative-election https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1907-when-will-a-new-dutch-government-be-sworn-in-after-the-2021-general-election Good Judgment Open false none 19 73 11
14 What will be the closing price of Mercado Libre stock on 15 February 2021? Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1888-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-mercado-libre-stock-on-15-february-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021 Good Judgment Open false true none 42% 57 49 28
15 How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the Americas Region as of 1 February 2021? What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1887-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-have-been-reported-by-the-world-health-organization-who-for-the-americas-region-as-of-1-february-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021 Good Judgment Open false none 190 94 83
16 How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United Kingdom as of 1 February 2021? Which NFL team will win Super Bowl LV? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1886-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-have-been-reported-by-the-world-health-organization-who-for-the-united-kingdom-as-of-1-february-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1898-which-nfl-team-will-win-super-bowl-lv Good Judgment Open false none 232 166 94
17 What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021? Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021 Good Judgment Open false true none 52% 85 78 50
18 Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021? Will the New START treaty be extended by Russia and the U.S. before 6 February 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1899-will-the-new-start-treaty-be-extended-by-russia-and-the-u-s-before-6-february-2021 Good Judgment Open true 18% 100% 96 217 62
19 When will Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies approve the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis? Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1890-when-will-mexico-s-chamber-of-deputies-approve-the-federal-law-for-the-regulation-of-cannabis https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021 Good Judgment Open false none 17 69 15
20 On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a number of daily new COVID-19 cases per 100k residents of 75.0 or higher? Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1881-on-1-march-2021-how-many-states-will-have-a-number-of-daily-new-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-of-75-0-or-higher https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union Good Judgment Open false true none 74% 181 128 83
21 On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%? Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1880-on-1-march-2021-how-many-states-will-have-a-covid-19-positivity-rate-greater-than-10-0 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021 Good Judgment Open false true none 32% 124 120 67
22 Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset? Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1879-before-1-april-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-israel-s-knesset https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022 Good Judgment Open false true none 4% 166 67 114
23 At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021? Before 15 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1892-before-15-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea Good Judgment Open false true none 3% 79 176 68
24 Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin? When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy Good Judgment Open true false 58% none 89 138 60
25 Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00? At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world Good Judgment Open true false 4% none 99 125 54
26 Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022? Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia Good Judgment Open false none 288 83 158
27 Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021? How many seats in the Legislative Assembly will New Ideas (Nuevas Ideas) win in the 2021 Salvadoran legislative election? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1889-how-many-seats-in-the-legislative-assembly-will-new-ideas-nuevas-ideas-win-in-the-2021-salvadoran-legislative-election Good Judgment Open false none 220 34 163
28 Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China? What will be the closing price of Mercado Libre stock on 15 February 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1888-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-mercado-libre-stock-on-15-february-2021 Good Judgment Open true false 35% none 164 181 119
29 Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021? How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the Americas Region as of 1 February 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1887-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-have-been-reported-by-the-world-health-organization-who-for-the-americas-region-as-of-1-february-2021 Good Judgment Open true false 10% none 206 566 169
30 Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers? How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United Kingdom as of 1 February 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1886-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-have-been-reported-by-the-world-health-organization-who-for-the-united-kingdom-as-of-1-february-2021 Good Judgment Open true false 40% none 137 602 81
31 Will the monthly occupancy level of European hotels next reach 50.0% or higher before June 2021, according to Smith Travel Research? What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1874-will-the-monthly-occupancy-level-of-european-hotels-next-reach-50-0-or-higher-before-june-2021-according-to-smith-travel-research https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021 Good Judgment Open true false 36% none 162 127 77
32 Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China? Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021 Good Judgment Open false true none 15% 160 140 89
33 Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022? When will Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies approve the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1890-when-will-mexico-s-chamber-of-deputies-approve-the-federal-law-for-the-regulation-of-cannabis Good Judgment Open true false 10% none 153 22 102
34 When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.? On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a number of daily new COVID-19 cases per 100k residents of 75.0 or higher? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1881-on-1-march-2021-how-many-states-will-have-a-number-of-daily-new-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-of-75-0-or-higher Good Judgment Open false none 120 292 72
35 Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher? On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1880-on-1-march-2021-how-many-states-will-have-a-covid-19-positivity-rate-greater-than-10-0 Good Judgment Open true false 58% none 54 208 38
36 Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero? Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zero https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1879-before-1-april-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-israel-s-knesset Good Judgment Open true false 10% none 202 217 153
37 Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020? At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021 Good Judgment Open true false 92% none 70 87 50
38 In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution? Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitution https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin Good Judgment Open true 66% 44% 35 114 28
39 Before 21 January 2021, will the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) enter into a consent order that would allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to exit conservatorship? Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1860-before-21-january-2021-will-the-federal-housing-finance-agency-fhfa-enter-into-a-consent-order-that-would-allow-fannie-mae-and-freddie-mac-to-exit-conservatorship https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00 Good Judgment Open true 0% 3% 63 122 43
40 What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg? Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloomberg https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open false none 89 346 34
41 Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan? Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstan https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021 Good Judgment Open false none 65 295 27
42 Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report? Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1856-will-the-imf-estimate-for-world-gdp-growth-for-2021-be-higher-in-its-april-2021-world-economic-outlook-report-relative-to-its-october-2020-report https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china Good Judgment Open true 70% 16% 203 204 140
43 Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru? Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peru https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021 Good Judgment Open false true none 5% 78 259 58
44 Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who "worked from home exclusively" fell below 20%? Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers Good Judgment Open true 56% 25% 274 183 154
45 Who will be appointed as the next leader of the Communist Party in Vietnam? Will the monthly occupancy level of European hotels next reach 50.0% or higher before June 2021, according to Smith Travel Research? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1848-who-will-be-appointed-as-the-next-leader-of-the-communist-party-in-vietnam https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1874-will-the-monthly-occupancy-level-of-european-hotels-next-reach-50-0-or-higher-before-june-2021-according-to-smith-travel-research Good Judgment Open false true none 20% 160 236 88
46 What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021? Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china Good Judgment Open false none 315 201 203
47 How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021? Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open false true none 8% 640 181 275
48 How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021? When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s Good Judgment Open false none 316 164 177
49 Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil? Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher Good Judgment Open true 5% 57% 226 60 176
50 Will the average price of a gallon of gasoline fall below $1.95 for any week before 2 March 2021? Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1847-will-the-average-price-of-a-gallon-of-gasoline-fall-below-1-95-for-any-week-before-2-march-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zero Good Judgment Open true 2% 10% 289 247 120
51 Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021? Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-april-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020 Good Judgment Open true 3% 85% 364 81 181
52 In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count? In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitution Good Judgment Open true 70% 66% 176 48 112
53 Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)? What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eia https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloomberg Good Judgment Open true false 95% none 237 129 163
54 On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency? Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergency https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstan Good Judgment Open true false 85% none 213 85 150
55 Between 13 November 2020 and 12 February 2021, will the closing price per barrel of WTI crude oil be higher than the closing price per barrel of Brent crude oil? Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1839-between-13-november-2020-and-12-february-2021-will-the-closing-price-per-barrel-of-wti-crude-oil-be-higher-than-the-closing-price-per-barrel-of-brent-crude-oil https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1856-will-the-imf-estimate-for-world-gdp-growth-for-2021-be-higher-in-its-april-2021-world-economic-outlook-report-relative-to-its-october-2020-report Good Judgment Open true 1% 79% 224 258 101
56 When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region? Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-region https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peru Good Judgment Open false none 186 103 82
57 Will the People's Republic of China (PRC) officially declare an air-defense identification zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 March 2021? Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who "worked from home exclusively" fell below 20%? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1832-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-officially-declare-an-air-defense-identification-zone-adiz-over-any-part-of-the-south-china-sea-before-1-march-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20 Good Judgment Open true 4% 50% 291 349 194
58 Between 9 November 2020 and 28 February 2021, will a country cease to formally recognize Taiwan? Who will be appointed as the next leader of the Communist Party in Vietnam? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1831-between-9-november-2020-and-28-february-2021-will-a-country-cease-to-formally-recognize-taiwan https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1848-who-will-be-appointed-as-the-next-leader-of-the-communist-party-in-vietnam Good Judgment Open true false 4% none 359 194 199
59 Will Russia and the People's Republic of China (PRC) conduct any joint naval exercises before 1 March 2021? What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1833-will-russia-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-conduct-any-joint-naval-exercises-before-1-march-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021 Good Judgment Open true false none 309 400 144
60 When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 35 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the Europe Region? How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1834-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-35-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-europe-region https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021 Good Judgment Open false none 321 826 91
61 At close of business on 17 March 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 27 January 2021? How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1824-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-27-january-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021 Good Judgment Open false none 128 384 79
62 Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority? Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authority https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil Good Judgment Open true 10% 130 252 53
63 Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)? Will the average price of a gallon of gasoline fall below $1.95 for any week before 2 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1847-will-the-average-price-of-a-gallon-of-gasoline-fall-below-1-95-for-any-week-before-2-march-2021 Good Judgment Open true 4% 1% 216 342 131
64 Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019? Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-april-2021 Good Judgment Open true 90% 3% 210 388 98
65 How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021? In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count Good Judgment Open false true none 775 195 163
66 Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021? Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eia Good Judgment Open true 95% 215 257 59
67 Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir? On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergency Good Judgment Open true 5% 85% 149 235 57
68 Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct? Between 13 November 2020 and 12 February 2021, will the closing price per barrel of WTI crude oil be higher than the closing price per barrel of Brent crude oil? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conduct https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1839-between-13-november-2020-and-12-february-2021-will-the-closing-price-per-barrel-of-wti-crude-oil-be-higher-than-the-closing-price-per-barrel-of-brent-crude-oil Good Judgment Open false true none 0% 122 243 40
69 Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022? When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-region Good Judgment Open true false 99% none 116 218 52
70 When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States? Will the People's Republic of China (PRC) officially declare an air-defense identification zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-states https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1832-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-officially-declare-an-air-defense-identification-zone-adiz-over-any-part-of-the-south-china-sea-before-1-march-2021 Good Judgment Open false true none 5% 337 340 138
71 Before 21 January 2021, will the House of Representatives, pursuant to the 12th Amendment, vote to choose a president of the United States? Between 9 November 2020 and 28 February 2021, will a country cease to formally recognize Taiwan? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1809-before-21-january-2021-will-the-house-of-representatives-pursuant-to-the-12th-amendment-vote-to-choose-a-president-of-the-united-states https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1831-between-9-november-2020-and-28-february-2021-will-a-country-cease-to-formally-recognize-taiwan Good Judgment Open true 2% 385 420 232
72 For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States? Will Russia and the People's Republic of China (PRC) conduct any joint naval exercises before 1 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1833-will-russia-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-conduct-any-joint-naval-exercises-before-1-march-2021 Good Judgment Open true 28% 93% 440 349 143
73 What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021? When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 35 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the Europe Region? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1834-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-35-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-europe-region Good Judgment Open false none 187 360 62
74 What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021? At close of business on 17 March 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 27 January 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1799-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-housing-starts-for-april-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1824-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-27-january-2021 Good Judgment Open false none 274 134 78
75 When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government? Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1801-when-will-lebanon-s-parliament-give-a-vote-of-confidence-to-a-new-government https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authority Good Judgment Open false true none 4% 281 164 55
76 Before 1 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation at sea between the forces of India and the People's Republic of China? Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1795-before-1-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-at-sea-between-the-forces-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws Good Judgment Open true 1% 4% 347 239 177
77 In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional? Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutional https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019 Good Judgment Open true 96% 95% 182 227 64
78 Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021? How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021 Good Judgment Open true false 2% none 320 973 146
79 At close of business on 27 January 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 December 2020? Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1791-at-close-of-business-on-27-january-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-16-december-2020 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021 Good Judgment Open false true none 178 233 111
80 Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from? Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir Good Judgment Open false true none 3% 214 162 97
81 When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match? Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788-when-will-25-000-or-more-fans-next-attend-a-premier-league-match https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conduct Good Judgment Open false none 488 129 172
82 Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom? Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022 Good Judgment Open true 10% 99% 799 119 389
83 Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021? When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-states Good Judgment Open true false 5% none 299 388 149
84 Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system? For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782-will-any-2020-california-election-results-be-altered-by-a-cyberattack-against-a-voting-system https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states Good Judgment Open true 0% 12% 260 513 135
85 Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021? What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021 Good Judgment Open true false 25% none 437 215 133
86 When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day? What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-day https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1799-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-housing-starts-for-april-2021 Good Judgment Open false none 604 319 152
87 In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system? When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-system https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1801-when-will-lebanon-s-parliament-give-a-vote-of-confidence-to-a-new-government Good Judgment Open true false 90% none 180 329 71
88 In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional? Before 1 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation at sea between the forces of India and the People's Republic of China? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774-in-california-v-texas-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-reducing-the-penalty-amount-for-the-individual-mandate-of-the-affordable-care-act-aca-to-zero-rendered-the-individual-mandate-provision-unconstitutional https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1795-before-1-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-at-sea-between-the-forces-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china Good Judgment Open true 0% 288 368 72
89 Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics? In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutional Good Judgment Open true 4% 97% 438 190 162
90 How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021? Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021 Good Judgment Open false true none 2% 428 340 88
91 When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package? Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1762-when-will-the-eu-amend-its-own-resources-decision-to-help-finance-the-eu-s-proposed-covid-19-recovery-package https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from Good Judgment Open false none 176 226 47
92 How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022? When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1760-how-many-cybertrucks-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788-when-will-25-000-or-more-fans-next-attend-a-premier-league-match Good Judgment Open false none 247 535 75
93 Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service? Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-service https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom Good Judgment Open false true none 9% 182 911 70
94 Before 14 February 2021, will former King Juan Carlos I and/or former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont return to Spain? Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1740-before-14-february-2021-will-former-king-juan-carlos-i-and-or-former-catalan-president-carles-puigdemont-return-to-spain https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021 Good Judgment Open false true none 5% 214 329 96
95 Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery? Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1744-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-debut-a-passenger-vehicle-powered-by-a-solid-state-battery https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782-will-any-2020-california-election-results-be-altered-by-a-cyberattack-against-a-voting-system Good Judgment Open false true none 189 280 52
96 When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America? Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021 Good Judgment Open false true none 432 534 92
97 Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month? When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-day Good Judgment Open true false 2% none 247 675 123
98 Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used? In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-system Good Judgment Open true 3% 92% 473 183 127
99 When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.? In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1711-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-lines-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774-in-california-v-texas-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-reducing-the-penalty-amount-for-the-individual-mandate-of-the-affordable-care-act-aca-to-zero-rendered-the-individual-mandate-provision-unconstitutional Good Judgment Open false true none 0% 818 299 253
100 Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.? Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics Good Judgment Open false true none 5% 177 490 71
101 How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined? How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1698-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2021-and-2022-combined https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021 Good Judgment Open false none 166 440 44
102 How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022? When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1678-how-many-public-dc-fast-charge-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-united-states-by-31-december-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1762-when-will-the-eu-amend-its-own-resources-decision-to-help-finance-the-eu-s-proposed-covid-19-recovery-package Good Judgment Open false none 159 186 29
103 How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021? How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1760-how-many-cybertrucks-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022 Good Judgment Open false none 816 276 134
104 Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled? Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-service Good Judgment Open false none 939 205 343
105 Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law? Before 14 February 2021, will former King Juan Carlos I and/or former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont return to Spain? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1740-before-14-february-2021-will-former-king-juan-carlos-i-and-or-former-catalan-president-carles-puigdemont-return-to-spain Good Judgment Open true false 70% none 197 233 94
106 Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021? Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1744-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-debut-a-passenger-vehicle-powered-by-a-solid-state-battery Good Judgment Open true false 5% none 804 214 371
107 How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022? When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america Good Judgment Open false none 219 472 67
108 How many total Fast Charge (&gt;22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022? Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month Good Judgment Open false true none 2% 216 257 64
109 Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel? Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used Good Judgment Open false true none 9% 329 530 181
110 Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles? Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-european-union-delay-and-or-relax-the-implementation-and-or-enforcement-of-any-of-its-co2-emission-performance-standards-for-new-passenger-cars-and-or-new-light-commercial-vehicles https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s Good Judgment Open true false none 161 185 79
111 What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles? How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1583-what-will-be-the-2022-industry-wide-average-cost-of-li-ion-batteries-used-in-battery-powered-electric-vehicles https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1698-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2021-and-2022-combined Good Judgment Open false none 217 176 85
112 What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)? How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1582-what-total-percentage-of-global-vehicle-sales-in-2022-will-be-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-and-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-phevs https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1678-how-many-public-dc-fast-charge-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-united-states-by-31-december-2022 Good Judgment Open false none 319 165 130
113 Will there be a new prime minister of Italy before 24 January 2021? How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1502-will-there-be-a-new-prime-minister-of-italy-before-24-january-2021 https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021 Good Judgment Open true false 1% none 825 907 263
114 Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers? Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1411-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-that-caps-administrative-fees-and-or-operating-profits-of-the-country-s-pension-fund-managers https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled Good Judgment Open true false 2% none 247 1111 95
115 Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets? Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1412-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-nationalizing-private-pension-fund-assets https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law Good Judgment Open true 1% 72% 273 206 123
116 When will Donald Trump cease to be president of the United States? Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1290-when-will-donald-trump-cease-to-be-president-of-the-united-states https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021 Good Judgment Open false true none 5% 6445 855 2159
117 How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022 Good Judgment Open false none 234
118 How many total Fast Charge (&gt;22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022 Good Judgment Open false none 233
119 Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel Good Judgment Open false none 339
120 Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-european-union-delay-and-or-relax-the-implementation-and-or-enforcement-of-any-of-its-co2-emission-performance-standards-for-new-passenger-cars-and-or-new-light-commercial-vehicles Good Judgment Open true 2% 163
121 What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1583-what-will-be-the-2022-industry-wide-average-cost-of-li-ion-batteries-used-in-battery-powered-electric-vehicles Good Judgment Open false none 221
122 What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1582-what-total-percentage-of-global-vehicle-sales-in-2022-will-be-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-and-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-phevs Good Judgment Open false none 331
123 Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1411-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-that-caps-administrative-fees-and-or-operating-profits-of-the-country-s-pension-fund-managers Good Judgment Open true 1% 253
124 Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1412-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-nationalizing-private-pension-fund-assets Good Judgment Open true 2% 284

688
data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json
View File

File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff

3255
data/merged-questions.csv
View File

File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff

7851
data/merged-questions.json
View File

File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff

2059
data/metaculus-questions.csv
View File

File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff

2764
data/metaculus-questions.json
View File

File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff

13
data/omen-questions.csv Normal file
View File

@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts"
"Will the Ethereum block gas limit be >= 25,000,000 gas in any block on April 1st 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x06c942fd737bc53571a34667b2ae3b669f1f502d","Omen",true,"99.7653%",
"Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x32848849f5b7e30ff75f57838fea8f9663c3d9de","Omen",true,"10.8673%",
"Will at least 6000 YFI tokens be minted till end of Feb?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x7a236ecb8686068fd0f41c88773bb9cb40856e6d","Omen",true,"48.1083%",
"Will Uniswap V3 be launched and usable in Q1 2021? (includes mainnet or Layer2)","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x8bcf27b20670a4f32973cbf231b8904029da1ccb","Omen",true,"40.1381%",
"When will the FDA approve the use of an existing, orally-administered vaccine for the prevention of COVID-19?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x9598659e3fc7d5a618b57e94be2ac37e5d774905","Omen",false,"none",
"Will The Flippening happen in 2021? (Will another blockchain's market cap exceed Bitcoin's market cap in 2021?)","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xa6da2bc89a433b9cdcc7271077a119139f4d305c","Omen",true,"50.0000%",
"Will United States v Griffith (case 19 MAG 10987) resolve with Griffith convicted of a felony such as violating IEEPA?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xcc6cc7204eeba3f76168458b3ac725af89bb9fbb","Omen",true,"60.0000%",
"Will Joe Biden be the US President at the end of 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xd450b6c4db569f600cb42acc0a6cd3a140c4894b","Omen",true,"85.1032%",
"What will be the outcome of the 2020 US Presidential Election for the office of President of the United States, where the winner is the one receiving the most votes from certified electors of the Electoral College, those votes having been officially counted by the United States Congress under VICE PRESIDENT MICHAEL PENCE on January 6, 2021 (per the Electoral Count Act of 1887)?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xdbf41f1f2d28216eb4e76b9ed3856180c2daa479","Omen",true,"99.0000%",
"Will Compound Chain be launched and usable by the end of Q2 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xe018254be84e200bfb9947dc57df8943cb2ac1b2","Omen",true,"40.0000%",
"Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xed6940e49cee029c4664d9794c04d5f9e5597632","Omen",true,"11.7267%",
"Will at least 6000 YFI tokens be minted till end of Feb?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xf2f5db144ec6dcd40a9e425b67a4930a3f442a16","Omen",true,"31.2652%",
1 Title URL Platform Binary question? Percentage # Forecasts
2 Will the Ethereum block gas limit be >= 25,000,000 gas in any block on April 1st 2021? https://omen.eth.link/#/0x06c942fd737bc53571a34667b2ae3b669f1f502d Omen true 99.7653%
3 Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021? https://omen.eth.link/#/0x32848849f5b7e30ff75f57838fea8f9663c3d9de Omen true 10.8673%
4 Will at least 6000 YFI tokens be minted till end of Feb? https://omen.eth.link/#/0x7a236ecb8686068fd0f41c88773bb9cb40856e6d Omen true 48.1083%
5 Will Uniswap V3 be launched and usable in Q1 2021? (includes mainnet or Layer2) https://omen.eth.link/#/0x8bcf27b20670a4f32973cbf231b8904029da1ccb Omen true 40.1381%
6 When will the FDA approve the use of an existing, orally-administered vaccine for the prevention of COVID-19? https://omen.eth.link/#/0x9598659e3fc7d5a618b57e94be2ac37e5d774905 Omen false none
7 Will The Flippening happen in 2021? (Will another blockchain's market cap exceed Bitcoin's market cap in 2021?) https://omen.eth.link/#/0xa6da2bc89a433b9cdcc7271077a119139f4d305c Omen true 50.0000%
8 Will United States v Griffith (case 19 MAG 10987) resolve with Griffith convicted of a felony such as violating IEEPA? https://omen.eth.link/#/0xcc6cc7204eeba3f76168458b3ac725af89bb9fbb Omen true 60.0000%
9 Will Joe Biden be the US President at the end of 2021? https://omen.eth.link/#/0xd450b6c4db569f600cb42acc0a6cd3a140c4894b Omen true 85.1032%
10 What will be the outcome of the 2020 US Presidential Election for the office of President of the United States, where the winner is the one receiving the most votes from certified electors of the Electoral College, those votes having been officially counted by the United States Congress under VICE PRESIDENT MICHAEL PENCE on January 6, 2021 (per the Electoral Count Act of 1887)? https://omen.eth.link/#/0xdbf41f1f2d28216eb4e76b9ed3856180c2daa479 Omen true 99.0000%
11 Will Compound Chain be launched and usable by the end of Q2 2021? https://omen.eth.link/#/0xe018254be84e200bfb9947dc57df8943cb2ac1b2 Omen true 40.0000%
12 Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021? https://omen.eth.link/#/0xed6940e49cee029c4664d9794c04d5f9e5597632 Omen true 11.7267%
13 Will at least 6000 YFI tokens be minted till end of Feb? https://omen.eth.link/#/0xf2f5db144ec6dcd40a9e425b67a4930a3f442a16 Omen true 31.2652%

137
data/omen-questions.json Normal file
View File

@ -0,0 +1,137 @@
[
{
"Title": "Will the Ethereum block gas limit be >= 25,000,000 gas in any block on April 1st 2021?",
"URL": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0x06c942fd737bc53571a34667b2ae3b669f1f502d",
"Platform": "Omen",
"Binary question?": true,
"marginalPrices": [
"0.997652780320339389668726385868353",
"0.002347219679660610331273614131647038"
],
"Percentage": "99.7653%"
},
{
"Title": "Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021?",
"URL": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0x32848849f5b7e30ff75f57838fea8f9663c3d9de",
"Platform": "Omen",
"Binary question?": true,
"marginalPrices": [
"0.1086728608079395832263016792869373",
"0.8913271391920604167736983207130627"
],
"Percentage": "10.8673%"
},
{
"Title": "Will at least 6000 YFI tokens be minted till end of Feb?",
"URL": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0x7a236ecb8686068fd0f41c88773bb9cb40856e6d",
"Platform": "Omen",
"Binary question?": true,
"marginalPrices": [
"0.4810827016169048678561288717963137",
"0.5189172983830951321438711282036863"
],
"Percentage": "48.1083%"
},
{
"Title": "Will Uniswap V3 be launched and usable in Q1 2021? (includes mainnet or Layer2)",
"URL": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0x8bcf27b20670a4f32973cbf231b8904029da1ccb",
"Platform": "Omen",
"Binary question?": true,
"marginalPrices": [
"0.4013812037799882539689575072876216",
"0.5986187962200117460310424927123784"
],
"Percentage": "40.1381%"
},
{
"Title": "When will the FDA approve the use of an existing, orally-administered vaccine for the prevention of COVID-19?",
"URL": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0x9598659e3fc7d5a618b57e94be2ac37e5d774905",
"Platform": "Omen",
"Binary question?": false,
"marginalPrices": [
"0.01515661495857047678999833535985743",
"0.01515661495857047678999833535985743",
"0.01515661495857047678999833535985743",
"0.01515661495857047678999833535985743",
"0.9393735401657180928400066585605703"
],
"Percentage": "none"
},
{
"Title": "Will The Flippening happen in 2021? (Will another blockchain's market cap exceed Bitcoin's market cap in 2021?)",
"URL": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0xa6da2bc89a433b9cdcc7271077a119139f4d305c",
"Platform": "Omen",
"Binary question?": true,
"marginalPrices": [
"0.5",
"0.5"
],
"Percentage": "50.0000%"
},
{
"Title": "Will United States v Griffith (case 19 MAG 10987) resolve with Griffith convicted of a felony such as violating IEEPA?",
"URL": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0xcc6cc7204eeba3f76168458b3ac725af89bb9fbb",
"Platform": "Omen",
"Binary question?": true,
"marginalPrices": [
"0.6000000000000000000199061948971275",
"0.3999999999999999999800938051028725"
],
"Percentage": "60.0000%"
},
{
"Title": "Will Joe Biden be the US President at the end of 2021?",
"URL": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0xd450b6c4db569f600cb42acc0a6cd3a140c4894b",
"Platform": "Omen",
"Binary question?": true,
"marginalPrices": [
"0.8510322451182968590048070388296782",
"0.1489677548817031409951929611703218"
],
"Percentage": "85.1032%"
},
{
"Title": "What will be the outcome of the 2020 US Presidential Election for the office of President of the United States, where the winner is the one receiving the most votes from certified electors of the Electoral College, those votes having been officially counted by the United States Congress under VICE PRESIDENT MICHAEL PENCE on January 6, 2021 (per the Electoral Count Act of 1887)?",
"URL": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0xdbf41f1f2d28216eb4e76b9ed3856180c2daa479",
"Platform": "Omen",
"Binary question?": true,
"marginalPrices": [
"0.9900000000000001225706801609666705",
"0.00999999999999987742931983903332947"
],
"Percentage": "99.0000%"
},
{
"Title": "Will Compound Chain be launched and usable by the end of Q2 2021?",
"URL": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0xe018254be84e200bfb9947dc57df8943cb2ac1b2",
"Platform": "Omen",
"Binary question?": true,
"marginalPrices": [
"0.399999999999999999999976",
"0.600000000000000000000024"
],
"Percentage": "40.0000%"
},
{
"Title": "Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021?",
"URL": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0xed6940e49cee029c4664d9794c04d5f9e5597632",
"Platform": "Omen",
"Binary question?": true,
"marginalPrices": [
"0.117266969703417233389287613062571",
"0.882733030296582766610712386937429"
],
"Percentage": "11.7267%"
},
{
"Title": "Will at least 6000 YFI tokens be minted till end of Feb?",
"URL": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0xf2f5db144ec6dcd40a9e425b67a4930a3f442a16",
"Platform": "Omen",
"Binary question?": true,
"marginalPrices": [
"0.3126524159386235616135925047260208",
"0.6873475840613764383864074952739792"
],
"Percentage": "31.2652%"
}
]

2066
data/polymarket-contract-list.json
View File

File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff

40
data/polymarket-questions.csv
View File

@ -1,15 +1,25 @@
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts","# Forecasters" "Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts"
"Will Trump Pardon Himself in His First Term?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-trump-pardon-himself-in-his-first-term","PolyMarket",true,"37.3707%","1448.00", "Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be above 10% on March 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-above-10-on-march-15-2021","PolyMarket",true,"20.3269%","69.00"
"Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-attend-joe-biden-s-inauguration-ceremony-in-person","PolyMarket",true,"6.3134%","904.00", "How many more tweets will be on the @DonaldJTrumpJr account by February 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-donald-j-trump-jr-account-by-february-1-2021","PolyMarket",false,"none","798.00"
"Will Coinbase delist Ripple (XRP) before they begin publicly trading?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-coinbase-delist-ripple-xrp-before-they-begin-publicly-trading","PolyMarket",true,"93.8756%","373.00", "Will Donald Trump's Twitter account be active on March 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-s-twitter-account-be-active-on-march-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"4.4456%","247.00"
"Will Donald Trump be inaugurated for his second term as President of the USA on Inauguration Day, January 20th, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-inaugurated-for-his-second-term-as-president-of-the-usa-on-inauguration-day-january-20th-2021","PolyMarket",true,"4.4697%","11248.00", "Will ETH be above $1500 on February 3rd, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-1500-on-february-3rd-2021","PolyMarket",true,"20.6871%","165.00"
"Will Donald Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-pardon-ross-ulbricht","PolyMarket",true,"8.2650%","391.00", "Will there be enough signatures for a vote on the recall of Gov. Newsom by March 17?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-gov-newsom-by-march-17","PolyMarket",true,"68.4254%","34.00"
"Will Donald Trump pardon Julian Assange?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-pardon-julian-assange","PolyMarket",true,"17.6931%","1291.00", "Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on March 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"96.5852%","3239.00"
"Will Joe Biden be inaugurated as President of the USA on January 20th, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-inaugurated-as-president-of-the-usa-on-january-20th-2021-1","PolyMarket",true,"90.5629%","3428.00", "Who will the world's richest person be on February 27, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/who-will-the-world-s-richest-person-be-on-february-27-2021","PolyMarket",false,"none","558.00"
"Which party will control the senate? (R≡Yes, D≡No)","https://polymarket.com/market/which-party-will-control-the-senate","PolyMarket",true,"6.8794%","1113.00", "How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by March 1?","https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-senators-will-vote-to-convict-donald-trump-on-incitement-by-march-1","PolyMarket",false,"none","377.00"
"Will Donald Trump pardon Edward Snowden?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-pardon-edward-snowden","PolyMarket",true,"13.7089%","117.00", "Will Tesla announce a Bitcoin purchase before March 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-tesla-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-march-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"12.5256%","975.00"
"Will $BTC break $50k before April 1st, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-btc-break-50k-before-april-1st-2021","PolyMarket",true,"54.4302%","565.00", "Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in The US by April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"59.9503%","890.00"
"Will Trump complete his first term?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-trump-complete-his-first-term","PolyMarket",true,"87.6649%","766.00", "Will Bitcoin or Tesla have a higher market cap on March 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-or-tesla-have-a-higher-market-cap-on-march-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"32.2396%","288.00"
"Will Bitcoin or Tesla have a higher market cap on March 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-or-tesla-have-a-higher-market-cap-on-march-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"39.9523%","120.00", "How many more tweets will be on the @ElonMusk account on February 3, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-elon-musk-account-on-february-3-2021","PolyMarket",false,"none","179.00"
"Will Donald Trump be impeached again before the end of his term?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-impeached-again-before-the-end-of-his-term","PolyMarket",true,"91.3797%","716.00", "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match","PolyMarket",true,"93.1437%","451.00"
"Who will the world's richest person be on February 27, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/who-will-the-world-s-richest-person-be-on-february-27-2021","PolyMarket",false,"none","134.00", "Will $BTC break $50k before April 1st, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-btc-break-50k-before-april-1st-2021","PolyMarket",true,"27.6431%","1259.00"
"Will YFI total supply be greater than 30,000 by March 15th?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-yfi-total-supply-be-greater-than-30-000-by-march-15th","PolyMarket",true,"86.4956%","118.00"
"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021","PolyMarket",true,"4.9602%","1144.00"
"Which party will control the senate?","https://polymarket.com/market/which-party-will-control-the-senate","PolyMarket",true,"0.4525%","1554.00"
"What rating will theneedledrop give Drake’s ""Certified Lover Boy""?","https://polymarket.com/market/what-rating-will-theneedledrop-give-drake-s-certified-lover-boy","PolyMarket",true,"52.0540%","56.00"
"$2000 stimulus checks by February 28, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/2000-stimulus-checks-by-february-28-2021","PolyMarket",true,"26.0828%","946.00"
"Will the Senate convict Donald Trump on impeachment by April 29, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-senate-convict-donald-trump-on-impeachment-before-june-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"5.0066%","553.00"
"Superbowl 55: Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-kansas-city-chiefs-win-superbowl-55","PolyMarket",true,"59.5820%","505.00"
" Will Kim Kardashian or Kanye West file for divorce before March 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-kim-kardashian-or-kanye-west-file-for-divorce-before-march-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"26.3912%","155.00"
"Donald Trump federally charged by February 20th?","https://polymarket.com/market/donald-trump-federally-charged-by-february-20th","PolyMarket",true,"5.4501%","265.00"
"What will Coinbase’s market cap be 1 week after it starts publicly trading?","https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-coinbase-s-market-cap-be-1-week-after-it-starts-publicly-trading","PolyMarket",true,"72.4711%","263.00"
1 Title URL Platform Binary question? Percentage # Forecasts # Forecasters
2 Will Trump Pardon Himself in His First Term? Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be above 10% on March 15, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-trump-pardon-himself-in-his-first-term https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-above-10-on-march-15-2021 PolyMarket true 37.3707% 20.3269% 1448.00 69.00
3 Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person? How many more tweets will be on the @DonaldJTrumpJr account by February 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-attend-joe-biden-s-inauguration-ceremony-in-person https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-donald-j-trump-jr-account-by-february-1-2021 PolyMarket true false 6.3134% none 904.00 798.00
4 Will Coinbase delist Ripple (XRP) before they begin publicly trading? Will Donald Trump's Twitter account be active on March 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-coinbase-delist-ripple-xrp-before-they-begin-publicly-trading https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-s-twitter-account-be-active-on-march-1-2021 PolyMarket true 93.8756% 4.4456% 373.00 247.00
5 Will Donald Trump be inaugurated for his second term as President of the USA on Inauguration Day, January 20th, 2021? Will ETH be above $1500 on February 3rd, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-inaugurated-for-his-second-term-as-president-of-the-usa-on-inauguration-day-january-20th-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-1500-on-february-3rd-2021 PolyMarket true 4.4697% 20.6871% 11248.00 165.00
6 Will Donald Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht? Will there be enough signatures for a vote on the recall of Gov. Newsom by March 17? https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-pardon-ross-ulbricht https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-gov-newsom-by-march-17 PolyMarket true 8.2650% 68.4254% 391.00 34.00
7 Will Donald Trump pardon Julian Assange? Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on March 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-pardon-julian-assange https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-1-2021 PolyMarket true 17.6931% 96.5852% 1291.00 3239.00
8 Will Joe Biden be inaugurated as President of the USA on January 20th, 2021? Who will the world's richest person be on February 27, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-inaugurated-as-president-of-the-usa-on-january-20th-2021-1 https://polymarket.com/market/who-will-the-world-s-richest-person-be-on-february-27-2021 PolyMarket true false 90.5629% none 3428.00 558.00
9 Which party will control the senate? (R≡Yes, D≡No) How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by March 1? https://polymarket.com/market/which-party-will-control-the-senate https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-senators-will-vote-to-convict-donald-trump-on-incitement-by-march-1 PolyMarket true false 6.8794% none 1113.00 377.00
10 Will Donald Trump pardon Edward Snowden? Will Tesla announce a Bitcoin purchase before March 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-pardon-edward-snowden https://polymarket.com/market/will-tesla-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-march-1-2021 PolyMarket true 13.7089% 12.5256% 117.00 975.00
11 Will $BTC break $50k before April 1st, 2021? Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in The US by April 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-btc-break-50k-before-april-1st-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021 PolyMarket true 54.4302% 59.9503% 565.00 890.00
12 Will Trump complete his first term? Will Bitcoin or Tesla have a higher market cap on March 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-trump-complete-his-first-term https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-or-tesla-have-a-higher-market-cap-on-march-1-2021 PolyMarket true 87.6649% 32.2396% 766.00 288.00
13 Will Bitcoin or Tesla have a higher market cap on March 1, 2021? How many more tweets will be on the @ElonMusk account on February 3, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-or-tesla-have-a-higher-market-cap-on-march-1-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-elon-musk-account-on-february-3-2021 PolyMarket true false 39.9523% none 120.00 179.00
14 Will Donald Trump be impeached again before the end of his term? Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match? https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-impeached-again-before-the-end-of-his-term https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match PolyMarket true 91.3797% 93.1437% 716.00 451.00
15 Who will the world's richest person be on February 27, 2021? Will $BTC break $50k before April 1st, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/who-will-the-world-s-richest-person-be-on-february-27-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-btc-break-50k-before-april-1st-2021 PolyMarket false true none 27.6431% 134.00 1259.00
16 Will YFI total supply be greater than 30,000 by March 15th? https://polymarket.com/market/will-yfi-total-supply-be-greater-than-30-000-by-march-15th PolyMarket true 86.4956% 118.00
17 Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021 PolyMarket true 4.9602% 1144.00
18 Which party will control the senate? https://polymarket.com/market/which-party-will-control-the-senate PolyMarket true 0.4525% 1554.00
19 What rating will theneedledrop give Drake’s "Certified Lover Boy"? https://polymarket.com/market/what-rating-will-theneedledrop-give-drake-s-certified-lover-boy PolyMarket true 52.0540% 56.00
20 $2000 stimulus checks by February 28, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/2000-stimulus-checks-by-february-28-2021 PolyMarket true 26.0828% 946.00
21 Will the Senate convict Donald Trump on impeachment by April 29, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-senate-convict-donald-trump-on-impeachment-before-june-1-2021 PolyMarket true 5.0066% 553.00
22 Superbowl 55: Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-kansas-city-chiefs-win-superbowl-55 PolyMarket true 59.5820% 505.00
23 Will Kim Kardashian or Kanye West file for divorce before March 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-kim-kardashian-or-kanye-west-file-for-divorce-before-march-1-2021 PolyMarket true 26.3912% 155.00
24 Donald Trump federally charged by February 20th? https://polymarket.com/market/donald-trump-federally-charged-by-february-20th PolyMarket true 5.4501% 265.00
25 What will Coinbase’s market cap be 1 week after it starts publicly trading? https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-coinbase-s-market-cap-be-1-week-after-it-starts-publicly-trading PolyMarket true 72.4711% 263.00

249
data/polymarket-questions.json
View File

@ -1,107 +1,51 @@
[ [
{ {
"Title": "Will Trump Pardon Himself in His First Term?", "Title": "Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be above 10% on March 15, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-trump-pardon-himself-in-his-first-term", "URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-above-10-on-march-15-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket", "Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true, "Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "37.3707%", "Percentage": "20.3269%",
"# Forecasts": "1448.00" "# Forecasts": "69.00"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?", "Title": "How many more tweets will be on the @DonaldJTrumpJr account by February 1, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-attend-joe-biden-s-inauguration-ceremony-in-person", "URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-donald-j-trump-jr-account-by-february-1-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket", "Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true, "Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "6.3134%", "Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "904.00" "# Forecasts": "798.00"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "Will Coinbase delist Ripple (XRP) before they begin publicly trading?", "Title": "Will Donald Trump's Twitter account be active on March 1, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-coinbase-delist-ripple-xrp-before-they-begin-publicly-trading", "URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-s-twitter-account-be-active-on-march-1-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket", "Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true, "Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "93.8756%", "Percentage": "4.4456%",
"# Forecasts": "373.00" "# Forecasts": "247.00"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "Will Donald Trump be inaugurated for his second term as President of the USA on Inauguration Day, January 20th, 2021?", "Title": "Will ETH be above $1500 on February 3rd, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-inaugurated-for-his-second-term-as-president-of-the-usa-on-inauguration-day-january-20th-2021", "URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-1500-on-february-3rd-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket", "Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true, "Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "4.4697%", "Percentage": "20.6871%",
"# Forecasts": "11248.00" "# Forecasts": "165.00"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "Will Donald Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht?", "Title": "Will there be enough signatures for a vote on the recall of Gov. Newsom by March 17?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-pardon-ross-ulbricht", "URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-gov-newsom-by-march-17",
"Platform": "PolyMarket", "Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true, "Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "8.2650%", "Percentage": "68.4254%",
"# Forecasts": "391.00" "# Forecasts": "34.00"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "Will Donald Trump pardon Julian Assange?", "Title": "Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on March 1, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-pardon-julian-assange", "URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-1-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket", "Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true, "Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "17.6931%", "Percentage": "96.5852%",
"# Forecasts": "1291.00" "# Forecasts": "3239.00"
},
{
"Title": "Will Joe Biden be inaugurated as President of the USA on January 20th, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-inaugurated-as-president-of-the-usa-on-january-20th-2021-1",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "90.5629%",
"# Forecasts": "3428.00"
},
{
"Title": "Which party will control the senate? (R≡Yes, D≡No)",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/which-party-will-control-the-senate",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "6.8794%",
"# Forecasts": "1113.00"
},
{
"Title": "Will Donald Trump pardon Edward Snowden?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-pardon-edward-snowden",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "13.7089%",
"# Forecasts": "117.00"
},
{
"Title": "Will $BTC break $50k before April 1st, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-btc-break-50k-before-april-1st-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "54.4302%",
"# Forecasts": "565.00"
},
{
"Title": "Will Trump complete his first term?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-trump-complete-his-first-term",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "87.6649%",
"# Forecasts": "766.00"
},
{
"Title": "Will Bitcoin or Tesla have a higher market cap on March 1, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-or-tesla-have-a-higher-market-cap-on-march-1-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "39.9523%",
"# Forecasts": "120.00"
},
{
"Title": "Will Donald Trump be impeached again before the end of his term?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-impeached-again-before-the-end-of-his-term",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "91.3797%",
"# Forecasts": "716.00"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "Who will the world's richest person be on February 27, 2021?", "Title": "Who will the world's richest person be on February 27, 2021?",
@ -109,6 +53,147 @@
"Platform": "PolyMarket", "Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": false, "Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none", "Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "134.00" "# Forecasts": "558.00"
},
{
"Title": "How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by March 1?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-senators-will-vote-to-convict-donald-trump-on-incitement-by-march-1",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "377.00"
},
{
"Title": "Will Tesla announce a Bitcoin purchase before March 1, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-tesla-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-march-1-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "12.5256%",
"# Forecasts": "975.00"
},
{
"Title": "Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in The US by April 1, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "59.9503%",
"# Forecasts": "890.00"
},
{
"Title": "Will Bitcoin or Tesla have a higher market cap on March 1, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-or-tesla-have-a-higher-market-cap-on-march-1-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "32.2396%",
"# Forecasts": "288.00"
},
{
"Title": "How many more tweets will be on the @ElonMusk account on February 3, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-elon-musk-account-on-february-3-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "179.00"
},
{
"Title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "93.1437%",
"# Forecasts": "451.00"
},
{
"Title": "Will $BTC break $50k before April 1st, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-btc-break-50k-before-april-1st-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "27.6431%",
"# Forecasts": "1259.00"
},
{
"Title": "Will YFI total supply be greater than 30,000 by March 15th?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-yfi-total-supply-be-greater-than-30-000-by-march-15th",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "86.4956%",
"# Forecasts": "118.00"
},
{
"Title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "4.9602%",
"# Forecasts": "1144.00"
},
{
"Title": "Which party will control the senate?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/which-party-will-control-the-senate",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "0.4525%",
"# Forecasts": "1554.00"
},
{
"Title": "What rating will theneedledrop give Drake’s \"Certified Lover Boy\"?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-rating-will-theneedledrop-give-drake-s-certified-lover-boy",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "52.0540%",
"# Forecasts": "56.00"
},
{
"Title": "$2000 stimulus checks by February 28, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/2000-stimulus-checks-by-february-28-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "26.0828%",
"# Forecasts": "946.00"
},
{
"Title": "Will the Senate convict Donald Trump on impeachment by April 29, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-senate-convict-donald-trump-on-impeachment-before-june-1-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "5.0066%",
"# Forecasts": "553.00"
},
{
"title": "Will Coinbase delist Ripple (XRP) before they begin publicly trading?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-coinbase-delist-ripple-xrp-before-they-begin-publicly-trading",
"address": "0x361A583ef3A5f41Aa126465387b7f5e978F8A0C1"
},
{
"Title": "Superbowl 55: Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-kansas-city-chiefs-win-superbowl-55",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "59.5820%",
"# Forecasts": "505.00"
},
{
"Title": " Will Kim Kardashian or Kanye West file for divorce before March 1, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-kim-kardashian-or-kanye-west-file-for-divorce-before-march-1-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "26.3912%",
"# Forecasts": "155.00"
},
{
"Title": "Donald Trump federally charged by February 20th?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/donald-trump-federally-charged-by-february-20th",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "5.4501%",
"# Forecasts": "265.00"
},
{
"Title": "What will Coinbase’s market cap be 1 week after it starts publicly trading?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-coinbase-s-market-cap-be-1-week-after-it-starts-publicly-trading",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "72.4711%",
"# Forecasts": "263.00"
} }
] ]

177
data/predictit-questions.csv
View File

@ -1,87 +1,90 @@
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts","# Forecasters" "Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts"
"What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2020 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4353/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2020-election","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Which party will control the Senate after 2020 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4366/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2020-election","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Which party will control the Senate after 2020 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4366/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2020-election","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Which of these 5 European leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5717/Which-of-these-5-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will Donald Trump complete his first term?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5158/Will-Donald-Trump-complete-his-first-term","PredictIt",true,"86%",, "Will Trump pardon himself in his first term?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6453/Will-Trump-pardon-himself-in-his-first-term","PredictIt",true,"2%",
"Will Trump pardon Jeffrey Epstein by Jan. 20, 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5665/Will-Trump-pardon-Jeffrey-Epstein-by-Jan-20,-2021","PredictIt",true,"1%",, "What will be the popular vote margin in the 2020 presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6663/What-will-be-the-popular-vote-margin-in-the-2020-presidential-election","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Which of these 5 European leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5717/Which-of-these-5-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will the Senate convict Donald Trump on impeachment in his first term?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5914/Will-the-Senate-convict-Donald-Trump-on-impeachment-in-his-first-term","PredictIt",true,"6%",, "What percentage of the presidential vote will not be for the two major parties?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6809/What-percentage-of-the-presidential-vote-will-not-be-for-the-two-major-parties","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will Trump resign during his first term?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6008/Will-Trump-resign-during-his-first-term","PredictIt",true,"12%",, "Which party will win the 2020 House race in New York's 22nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6861/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-New-York's-22nd-District","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani before end of 2020?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6020/Will-Trump-pardon-Rudy-Giuliani-before-end-of-2020","PredictIt",true,"2%",, "Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will NASA find 2020’s global average temperature highest on record?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6234/Will-NASA-find-2020’s-global-average-temperature-highest-on-record","PredictIt",true,"45%",, "Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will Trump pardon himself in his first term?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6453/Will-Trump-pardon-himself-in-his-first-term","PredictIt",true,"44%",, "How many votes in the 2020 U.S. presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6882/How-many-votes-in-the-2020-US-presidential-election","PredictIt",false,"none",
"What will be the popular vote margin in the 2020 presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6663/What-will-be-the-popular-vote-margin-in-the-2020-presidential-election","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election","PredictIt",false,"none",
"What will be the net change in Senate seats, by party?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6670/What-will-be-the-net-change-in-Senate-seats,-by-party","PredictIt",false,"none",, "How many U.S. House delegations will Republicans win in the 2020 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6925/How-many-US-House-delegations-will-Republicans-win-in-the-2020-election","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Which U.S. Senate race will be won by the smallest margin?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6737/Which-US-Senate-race-will-be-won-by-the-smallest-margin","PredictIt",false,"none",, "How closely will the election results match the polls?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6936/How-closely-will-the-election-results-match-the-polls","PredictIt",false,"none",
"How many women will win election to the U.S. Senate in 2020?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6765/How-many-women-will-win-election-to-the-US-Senate-in-2020","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of State on Feb. 15?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6944/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-State-on-Feb-15","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will Democrats win the White House, Senate and House in 2020?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6770/Will-Democrats-win-the-White-House,-Senate-and-House-in-2020","PredictIt",true,"96%",, "Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021","PredictIt",true,"10%",
"Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Defense on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6949/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Defense-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"What percentage of the presidential vote will not be for the two major parties?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6809/What-percentage-of-the-presidential-vote-will-not-be-for-the-two-major-parties","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Labor on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6951/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Labor-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will Nancy Pelosi become Acting U.S. President on January 20?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6852/Will-Nancy-Pelosi-become-Acting-US-President-on-January-20","PredictIt",true,"2%",, "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Attorney General on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6952/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Attorney-General-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Which party will win the 2020 House race in New York's 22nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6861/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-New-York's-22nd-District","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022","PredictIt",true,"24%",
"Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Treasury Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6957/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Treasury-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Who will be the Senate-confirmed HUD Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6958/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HUD-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"How many votes in the 2020 U.S. presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6882/How-many-votes-in-the-2020-US-presidential-election","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Who will be the Senate-confirmed HHS Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6965/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HHS-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Commerce Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6966/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Commerce-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"How many U.S. House delegations will Republicans win in the 2020 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6925/How-many-US-House-delegations-will-Republicans-win-in-the-2020-election","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Homeland Security Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6971/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Homeland-Security-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"How closely will the election results match the polls?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6936/How-closely-will-the-election-results-match-the-polls","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Energy Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6972/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Energy-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of State on Feb. 15?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6944/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-State-on-Feb-15","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022","PredictIt",true,"20%",
"Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021","PredictIt",true,"8%",, "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Interior Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6976/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Interior-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Defense on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6949/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Defense-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Who will be the Senate-confirmed CIA Director on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6977/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-CIA-Director-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Labor on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6951/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Labor-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Education on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6978/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Education-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Attorney General on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6952/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Attorney-General-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Transportation Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6979/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Transportation-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022","PredictIt",true,"32%",, "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Agriculture Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6980/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Agriculture-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Treasury Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6957/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Treasury-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Who will be the Senate-confirmed EPA Administrator on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6981/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-EPA-Administrator-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed HUD Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6958/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HUD-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14","PredictIt",true,"51%",
"What will be the margin in the Georgia special Senate election runoff?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6959/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-Georgia-special-Senate-election-runoff","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Will Pete Buttigieg be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6986/Will-Pete-Buttigieg-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1","PredictIt",true,"99%",
"What will be the margin in the Georgia regular Senate election runoff?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6960/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-Georgia-regular-Senate-election-runoff","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Veterans Affairs Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6987/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Veterans-Affairs-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed HHS Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6965/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HHS-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Director of National Intelligence on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6989/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Director-of-National-Intelligence-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Commerce Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6966/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Commerce-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Will Amy Klobuchar be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6990/Will-Amy-Klobuchar-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1","PredictIt",true,"1%",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Homeland Security Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6971/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Homeland-Security-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Will Elizabeth Warren be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6991/Will-Elizabeth-Warren-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1","PredictIt",true,"1%",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Energy Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6972/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Energy-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Who will be the Senate-confirmed OMB Director on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6992/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022","PredictIt",true,"32%",, "Who will be the Senate-confirmed U.S. Trade Representative on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6993/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-US-Trade-Representative-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Interior Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6976/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Interior-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021","PredictIt",true,"33%",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed CIA Director on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6977/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-CIA-Director-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Education on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6978/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Education-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Transportation Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6979/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Transportation-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Agriculture Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6980/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Agriculture-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary","PredictIt",true,"96%",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed EPA Administrator on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6981/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-EPA-Administrator-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Will Israel hold national elections for Knesset in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7007/Will-Israel-hold-national-elections-for-Knesset-in-2021","PredictIt",true,"99%",
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14","PredictIt",true,"46%",, "Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024","PredictIt",true,"43%",
"Will Pete Buttigieg be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6986/Will-Pete-Buttigieg-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1","PredictIt",true,"85%",, "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023","PredictIt",true,"22%",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Veterans Affairs Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6987/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Veterans-Affairs-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary","PredictIt",true,"27%",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Director of National Intelligence on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6989/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Director-of-National-Intelligence-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will Amy Klobuchar be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6990/Will-Amy-Klobuchar-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1","PredictIt",true,"2%",, "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will Elizabeth Warren be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6991/Will-Elizabeth-Warren-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1","PredictIt",true,"2%",, "Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt",true,"12%",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed OMB Director on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6992/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt",true,"37%",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed U.S. Trade Representative on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6993/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-US-Trade-Representative-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Who will be the Senate-confirmed USAID Administrator on Mar. 16?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7020/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-USAID-Administrator-on-Mar-16","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021","PredictIt",true,"33%",, "Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt",true,"25%",
"Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Who will win the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7030/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Democratic-gubernatorial-primary","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021","PredictIt",true,"71%",
"Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary","PredictIt",true,"95%",, "How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7036/How-many-seats-will-Israel's-Likud-Party-win-in-the-next-Knesset-election","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will Israel hold national elections for Knesset in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7007/Will-Israel-hold-national-elections-for-Knesset-in-2021","PredictIt",true,"98%",, "Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom","PredictIt",true,"63%",
"Which Georgia Senate candidate will win the most runoff votes?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7008/Which-Georgia-Senate-candidate-will-win-the-most-runoff-votes","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Which Georgia Senate candidate will win the fewest runoff votes?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7009/Which-Georgia-Senate-candidate-will-win-the-fewest-runoff-votes","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination","PredictIt",false,"none",
"How many votes in the Georgia regular Senate runoff election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7011/How-many-votes-in-the-Georgia-regular-Senate-runoff-election","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Will the Senate convict Donald Trump in Biden's first 100 days?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7050/Will-the-Senate-convict-Donald-Trump-in-Biden's-first-100-days","PredictIt",true,"6%",
"How many votes in the Georgia special Senate runoff election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7012/How-many-votes-in-the-Georgia-special-Senate-runoff-election","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Will Lisa Murkowski be a Republican on April 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7051/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-a-Republican-on-April-1","PredictIt",true,"92%",
"Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024","PredictIt",true,"44%",, "Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023","PredictIt",true,"20%",, "How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7054/How-many-Senators-will-vote-to-convict-Donald-Trump-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary","PredictIt",true,"31%",, "Will Mitch McConnell vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7055/Will-Mitch-McConnell-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"13%",
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Will Mitt Romney vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7056/Will-Mitt-Romney-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"90%",
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt",true,"17%",, "Will Susan Collins vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7058/Will-Susan-Collins-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"62%",
"Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt",true,"30%",, "Will John Thune vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7059/Will-John-Thune-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"7%",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed USAID Administrator on Mar. 16?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7020/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-USAID-Administrator-on-Mar-16","PredictIt",false,"none",, "How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt",true,"19%",, "How many Senators vote to confirm Pete Buttigieg as Transportation Secretary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7064/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Pete-Buttigieg-as-Transportation-Secretary","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Will Thom Tillis vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7066/Will-Thom-Tillis-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"5%",
"Who will win the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7030/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Democratic-gubernatorial-primary","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Will Joe Manchin vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7067/Will-Joe-Manchin-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"92%",
"Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021","PredictIt",true,"54%",, "Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021","PredictIt",false,"none",
"How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7036/How-many-seats-will-Israel's-Likud-Party-win-in-the-next-Knesset-election","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Will Richard Burr vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7070/Will-Richard-Burr-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"9%",
"Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom","PredictIt",true,"71%",, "Will Rob Portman vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7071/Will-Rob-Portman-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"20%",
"Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1","PredictIt",true,"15%",
"Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination","PredictIt",false,"none",, "How many Senators vote to confirm Gina Raimondo as Commerce Secretary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7073/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Gina-Raimondo-as-Commerce-Secretary","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will there be a statewide recount in either Georgia Senate runoff?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7043/Will-there-be-a-statewide-recount-in-either-Georgia-Senate-runoff","PredictIt",true,"2%",, "Will the Senate censure Josh Hawley before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7074/Will-the-Senate-censure-Josh-Hawley-before-May-1","PredictIt",true,"20%",
"Will Donald Trump be impeached again before the end of his term?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7044/Will-Donald-Trump-be-impeached-again-before-the-end-of-his-term","PredictIt",true,"92%",, "Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed","PredictIt",true,"7%",
"How many Yea votes for a Trump impeachment resolution before noon Jan. 20?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7045/How-many-Yea-votes-for-a-Trump-impeachment-resolution-before-noon-Jan-20","PredictIt",false,"none",, "How many Senators vote to confirm Alejandro Mayorkas as Homeland Security Sec.?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7076/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Alejandro-Mayorkas-as-Homeland-Security-Sec","PredictIt",false,"none",
"When will Jon Ossoff be sworn in as a U.S. Senator?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7046/When-will-Jon-Ossoff-be-sworn-in-as-a-US-Senator","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Will Lisa Murkowski vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7077/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"87%",
"When will Raphael Warnock be sworn in as a U.S. Senator?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7048/When-will-Raphael-Warnock-be-sworn-in-as-a-US-Senator","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Will Italy hold national elections before June 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7078/Will-Italy-hold-national-elections-before-June-1","PredictIt",true,"25%",
"How many Yea votes in House for 25th Amendment resolution by Jan. 13?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7049/How-many-Yea-votes-in-House-for-25th-Amendment-resolution-by-Jan-13","PredictIt",false,"none",, "Will Ben Sasse vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7080/Will-Ben-Sasse-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"80%",
"How many Senators vote to confirm Jennifer Granholm as Energy Secretary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7081/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Jennifer-Granholm-as-Energy-Secretary","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary","PredictIt",true,"79%",
"Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021","PredictIt",true,"12%",
1 Title URL Platform Binary question? Percentage # Forecasts # Forecasters
2 What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2020 election? Which party will control the Senate after 2020 election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4353/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2020-election https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4366/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2020-election PredictIt false none
3 Which party will control the Senate after 2020 election? Which of these 5 European leaders will leave office next? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4366/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2020-election https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5717/Which-of-these-5-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next PredictIt false none
4 Will Donald Trump complete his first term? Will Trump pardon himself in his first term? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5158/Will-Donald-Trump-complete-his-first-term https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6453/Will-Trump-pardon-himself-in-his-first-term PredictIt true 86% 2%
5 Will Trump pardon Jeffrey Epstein by Jan. 20, 2021? What will be the popular vote margin in the 2020 presidential election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5665/Will-Trump-pardon-Jeffrey-Epstein-by-Jan-20,-2021 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6663/What-will-be-the-popular-vote-margin-in-the-2020-presidential-election PredictIt true false 1% none
6 Which of these 5 European leaders will leave office next? Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5717/Which-of-these-5-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District PredictIt false none
7 Will the Senate convict Donald Trump on impeachment in his first term? What percentage of the presidential vote will not be for the two major parties? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5914/Will-the-Senate-convict-Donald-Trump-on-impeachment-in-his-first-term https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6809/What-percentage-of-the-presidential-vote-will-not-be-for-the-two-major-parties PredictIt true false 6% none
8 Will Trump resign during his first term? Which party will win the 2020 House race in New York's 22nd District? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6008/Will-Trump-resign-during-his-first-term https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6861/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-New-York's-22nd-District PredictIt true false 12% none
9 Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani before end of 2020? Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6020/Will-Trump-pardon-Rudy-Giuliani-before-end-of-2020 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election PredictIt true false 2% none
10 Will NASA find 2020’s global average temperature highest on record? Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6234/Will-NASA-find-2020’s-global-average-temperature-highest-on-record https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election PredictIt true false 45% none
11 Will Trump pardon himself in his first term? How many votes in the 2020 U.S. presidential election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6453/Will-Trump-pardon-himself-in-his-first-term https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6882/How-many-votes-in-the-2020-US-presidential-election PredictIt true false 44% none
12 What will be the popular vote margin in the 2020 presidential election? Which party will win the House in the 2022 election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6663/What-will-be-the-popular-vote-margin-in-the-2020-presidential-election https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election PredictIt false none
13 What will be the net change in Senate seats, by party? How many U.S. House delegations will Republicans win in the 2020 election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6670/What-will-be-the-net-change-in-Senate-seats,-by-party https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6925/How-many-US-House-delegations-will-Republicans-win-in-the-2020-election PredictIt false none
14 Which U.S. Senate race will be won by the smallest margin? How closely will the election results match the polls? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6737/Which-US-Senate-race-will-be-won-by-the-smallest-margin https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6936/How-closely-will-the-election-results-match-the-polls PredictIt false none
15 How many women will win election to the U.S. Senate in 2020? Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of State on Feb. 15? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6765/How-many-women-will-win-election-to-the-US-Senate-in-2020 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6944/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-State-on-Feb-15 PredictIt false none
16 Will Democrats win the White House, Senate and House in 2020? Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6770/Will-Democrats-win-the-White-House,-Senate-and-House-in-2020 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021 PredictIt true 96% 10%
17 Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District? Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Defense on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6949/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Defense-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none
18 What percentage of the presidential vote will not be for the two major parties? Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Labor on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6809/What-percentage-of-the-presidential-vote-will-not-be-for-the-two-major-parties https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6951/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Labor-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none
19 Will Nancy Pelosi become Acting U.S. President on January 20? Who will be the Senate-confirmed Attorney General on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6852/Will-Nancy-Pelosi-become-Acting-US-President-on-January-20 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6952/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Attorney-General-on-Mar-1 PredictIt true false 2% none
20 Which party will win the 2020 House race in New York's 22nd District? Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6861/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-New-York's-22nd-District https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022 PredictIt false true none 24%
21 Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election? Who will be the Senate-confirmed Treasury Secretary on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6957/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Treasury-Secretary-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none
22 Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election? Who will be the Senate-confirmed HUD Secretary on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6958/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HUD-Secretary-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none
23 How many votes in the 2020 U.S. presidential election? Who will be the Senate-confirmed HHS Secretary on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6882/How-many-votes-in-the-2020-US-presidential-election https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6965/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HHS-Secretary-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none
24 Which party will win the House in the 2022 election? Who will be the Senate-confirmed Commerce Secretary on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6966/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Commerce-Secretary-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none
25 How many U.S. House delegations will Republicans win in the 2020 election? Who will be the Senate-confirmed Homeland Security Secretary on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6925/How-many-US-House-delegations-will-Republicans-win-in-the-2020-election https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6971/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Homeland-Security-Secretary-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none
26 How closely will the election results match the polls? Who will be the Senate-confirmed Energy Secretary on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6936/How-closely-will-the-election-results-match-the-polls https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6972/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Energy-Secretary-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none
27 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of State on Feb. 15? Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6944/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-State-on-Feb-15 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022 PredictIt false true none 20%
28 Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021? Who will be the Senate-confirmed Interior Secretary on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6976/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Interior-Secretary-on-Mar-1 PredictIt true false 8% none
29 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Defense on Mar. 1? Who will be the Senate-confirmed CIA Director on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6949/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Defense-on-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6977/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-CIA-Director-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none
30 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Labor on Mar. 1? Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Education on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6951/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Labor-on-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6978/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Education-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none
31 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Attorney General on Mar. 1? Who will be the Senate-confirmed Transportation Secretary on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6952/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Attorney-General-on-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6979/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Transportation-Secretary-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none
32 Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022? Who will be the Senate-confirmed Agriculture Secretary on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6980/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Agriculture-Secretary-on-Mar-1 PredictIt true false 32% none
33 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Treasury Secretary on Mar. 1? Who will be the Senate-confirmed EPA Administrator on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6957/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Treasury-Secretary-on-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6981/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-EPA-Administrator-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none
34 Who will be the Senate-confirmed HUD Secretary on Mar. 1? Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6958/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HUD-Secretary-on-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14 PredictIt false true none 51%
35 What will be the margin in the Georgia special Senate election runoff? Will Pete Buttigieg be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6959/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-Georgia-special-Senate-election-runoff https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6986/Will-Pete-Buttigieg-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1 PredictIt false true none 99%
36 What will be the margin in the Georgia regular Senate election runoff? Who will be the Senate-confirmed Veterans Affairs Secretary on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6960/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-Georgia-regular-Senate-election-runoff https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6987/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Veterans-Affairs-Secretary-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none
37 Who will be the Senate-confirmed HHS Secretary on Mar. 1? Who will be the Senate-confirmed Director of National Intelligence on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6965/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HHS-Secretary-on-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6989/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Director-of-National-Intelligence-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none
38 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Commerce Secretary on Mar. 1? Will Amy Klobuchar be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6966/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Commerce-Secretary-on-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6990/Will-Amy-Klobuchar-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1 PredictIt false true none 1%
39 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Homeland Security Secretary on Mar. 1? Will Elizabeth Warren be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6971/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Homeland-Security-Secretary-on-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6991/Will-Elizabeth-Warren-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1 PredictIt false true none 1%
40 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Energy Secretary on Mar. 1? Who will be the Senate-confirmed OMB Director on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6972/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Energy-Secretary-on-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6992/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none
41 Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022? Who will be the Senate-confirmed U.S. Trade Representative on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6993/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-US-Trade-Representative-on-Mar-1 PredictIt true false 32% none
42 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Interior Secretary on Mar. 1? Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6976/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Interior-Secretary-on-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021 PredictIt false true none 33%
43 Who will be the Senate-confirmed CIA Director on Mar. 1? Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6977/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-CIA-Director-on-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election PredictIt false none
44 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Education on Mar. 1? Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6978/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Education-on-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election PredictIt false none
45 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Transportation Secretary on Mar. 1? Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6979/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Transportation-Secretary-on-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021 PredictIt false none
46 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Agriculture Secretary on Mar. 1? Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6980/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Agriculture-Secretary-on-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary PredictIt false true none 96%
47 Who will be the Senate-confirmed EPA Administrator on Mar. 1? Will Israel hold national elections for Knesset in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6981/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-EPA-Administrator-on-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7007/Will-Israel-hold-national-elections-for-Knesset-in-2021 PredictIt false true none 99%
48 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14? Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024 PredictIt true 46% 43%
49 Will Pete Buttigieg be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1? Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6986/Will-Pete-Buttigieg-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023 PredictIt true 85% 22%
50 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Veterans Affairs Secretary on Mar. 1? Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6987/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Veterans-Affairs-Secretary-on-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary PredictIt false true none 27%
51 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Director of National Intelligence on Mar. 1? Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6989/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Director-of-National-Intelligence-on-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022 PredictIt false none
52 Will Amy Klobuchar be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1? Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6990/Will-Amy-Klobuchar-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022 PredictIt true false 2% none
53 Will Elizabeth Warren be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1? Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6991/Will-Elizabeth-Warren-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary PredictIt true 2% 12%
54 Who will be the Senate-confirmed OMB Director on Mar. 1? Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6992/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director-on-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary PredictIt false true none 37%
55 Who will be the Senate-confirmed U.S. Trade Representative on Mar. 1? Who will be the Senate-confirmed USAID Administrator on Mar. 16? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6993/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-US-Trade-Representative-on-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7020/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-USAID-Administrator-on-Mar-16 PredictIt false none
56 Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021? Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary PredictIt true 33% 25%
57 Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election? Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022 PredictIt false none
58 Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election? Who will win the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7030/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Democratic-gubernatorial-primary PredictIt false none
59 Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021? Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021 PredictIt false true none 71%
60 Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary? How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7036/How-many-seats-will-Israel's-Likud-Party-win-in-the-next-Knesset-election PredictIt true false 95% none
61 Will Israel hold national elections for Knesset in 2021? Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7007/Will-Israel-hold-national-elections-for-Knesset-in-2021 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom PredictIt true 98% 63%
62 Which Georgia Senate candidate will win the most runoff votes? Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7008/Which-Georgia-Senate-candidate-will-win-the-most-runoff-votes https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31 PredictIt false none
63 Which Georgia Senate candidate will win the fewest runoff votes? Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7009/Which-Georgia-Senate-candidate-will-win-the-fewest-runoff-votes https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination PredictIt false none
64 How many votes in the Georgia regular Senate runoff election? Will the Senate convict Donald Trump in Biden's first 100 days? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7011/How-many-votes-in-the-Georgia-regular-Senate-runoff-election https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7050/Will-the-Senate-convict-Donald-Trump-in-Biden's-first-100-days PredictIt false true none 6%
65 How many votes in the Georgia special Senate runoff election? Will Lisa Murkowski be a Republican on April 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7012/How-many-votes-in-the-Georgia-special-Senate-runoff-election https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7051/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-a-Republican-on-April-1 PredictIt false true none 92%
66 Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024? Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination PredictIt true false 44% none
67 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023? How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by Apr. 29? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7054/How-many-Senators-will-vote-to-convict-Donald-Trump-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 PredictIt true false 20% none
68 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary? Will Mitch McConnell vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7055/Will-Mitch-McConnell-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 PredictIt true 31% 13%
69 Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022? Will Mitt Romney vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7056/Will-Mitt-Romney-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 PredictIt false true none 90%
70 Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022? Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination PredictIt false none
71 Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary? Will Susan Collins vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7058/Will-Susan-Collins-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 PredictIt true 17% 62%
72 Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary? Will John Thune vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7059/Will-John-Thune-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 PredictIt true 30% 7%
73 Who will be the Senate-confirmed USAID Administrator on Mar. 16? How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7020/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-USAID-Administrator-on-Mar-16 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election PredictIt false none
74 Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary? How many Senators vote to confirm Pete Buttigieg as Transportation Secretary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7064/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Pete-Buttigieg-as-Transportation-Secretary PredictIt true false 19% none
75 Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022? Will Thom Tillis vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7066/Will-Thom-Tillis-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 PredictIt false true none 5%
76 Who will win the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary? Will Joe Manchin vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7030/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Democratic-gubernatorial-primary https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7067/Will-Joe-Manchin-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 PredictIt false true none 92%
77 Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021? Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021 PredictIt true false 54% none
78 How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election? Will Richard Burr vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7036/How-many-seats-will-Israel's-Likud-Party-win-in-the-next-Knesset-election https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7070/Will-Richard-Burr-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 PredictIt false true none 9%
79 Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom? Will Rob Portman vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7071/Will-Rob-Portman-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 PredictIt true 71% 20%
80 Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31? Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1 PredictIt false true none 15%
81 Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination? How many Senators vote to confirm Gina Raimondo as Commerce Secretary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7073/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Gina-Raimondo-as-Commerce-Secretary PredictIt false none
82 Will there be a statewide recount in either Georgia Senate runoff? Will the Senate censure Josh Hawley before May 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7043/Will-there-be-a-statewide-recount-in-either-Georgia-Senate-runoff https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7074/Will-the-Senate-censure-Josh-Hawley-before-May-1 PredictIt true 2% 20%
83 Will Donald Trump be impeached again before the end of his term? Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7044/Will-Donald-Trump-be-impeached-again-before-the-end-of-his-term https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed PredictIt true 92% 7%
84 How many Yea votes for a Trump impeachment resolution before noon Jan. 20? How many Senators vote to confirm Alejandro Mayorkas as Homeland Security Sec.? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7045/How-many-Yea-votes-for-a-Trump-impeachment-resolution-before-noon-Jan-20 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7076/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Alejandro-Mayorkas-as-Homeland-Security-Sec PredictIt false none
85 When will Jon Ossoff be sworn in as a U.S. Senator? Will Lisa Murkowski vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7046/When-will-Jon-Ossoff-be-sworn-in-as-a-US-Senator https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7077/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 PredictIt false true none 87%
86 When will Raphael Warnock be sworn in as a U.S. Senator? Will Italy hold national elections before June 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7048/When-will-Raphael-Warnock-be-sworn-in-as-a-US-Senator https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7078/Will-Italy-hold-national-elections-before-June-1 PredictIt false true none 25%
87 How many Yea votes in House for 25th Amendment resolution by Jan. 13? Will Ben Sasse vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7049/How-many-Yea-votes-in-House-for-25th-Amendment-resolution-by-Jan-13 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7080/Will-Ben-Sasse-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 PredictIt false true none 80%
88 How many Senators vote to confirm Jennifer Granholm as Energy Secretary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7081/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Jennifer-Granholm-as-Energy-Secretary PredictIt false none
89 Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary PredictIt true 79%
90 Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021 PredictIt true 12%

335
data/predictit-questions.json
View File

@ -1,11 +1,4 @@
[ [
{
"Title": "What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2020 election?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4353/What-will-be-the-balance-of-power-in-Congress-after-the-2020-election",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
},
{ {
"Title": "Which party will control the Senate after 2020 election?", "Title": "Which party will control the Senate after 2020 election?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4366/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2020-election", "URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4366/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2020-election",
@ -13,20 +6,6 @@
"Binary question?": false, "Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none" "Percentage": "none"
}, },
{
"Title": "Will Donald Trump complete his first term?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5158/Will-Donald-Trump-complete-his-first-term",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "86%"
},
{
"Title": "Will Trump pardon Jeffrey Epstein by Jan. 20, 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5665/Will-Trump-pardon-Jeffrey-Epstein-by-Jan-20,-2021",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "1%"
},
{ {
"Title": "Which of these 5 European leaders will leave office next?", "Title": "Which of these 5 European leaders will leave office next?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5717/Which-of-these-5-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next", "URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5717/Which-of-these-5-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
@ -34,40 +13,12 @@
"Binary question?": false, "Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none" "Percentage": "none"
}, },
{
"Title": "Will the Senate convict Donald Trump on impeachment in his first term?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5914/Will-the-Senate-convict-Donald-Trump-on-impeachment-in-his-first-term",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "6%"
},
{
"Title": "Will Trump resign during his first term?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6008/Will-Trump-resign-during-his-first-term",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "12%"
},
{
"Title": "Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani before end of 2020?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6020/Will-Trump-pardon-Rudy-Giuliani-before-end-of-2020",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "2%"
},
{
"Title": "Will NASA find 2020’s global average temperature highest on record?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6234/Will-NASA-find-2020’s-global-average-temperature-highest-on-record",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "45%"
},
{ {
"Title": "Will Trump pardon himself in his first term?", "Title": "Will Trump pardon himself in his first term?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6453/Will-Trump-pardon-himself-in-his-first-term", "URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6453/Will-Trump-pardon-himself-in-his-first-term",
"Platform": "PredictIt", "Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true, "Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "44%" "Percentage": "2%"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "What will be the popular vote margin in the 2020 presidential election?", "Title": "What will be the popular vote margin in the 2020 presidential election?",
@ -76,34 +27,6 @@
"Binary question?": false, "Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none" "Percentage": "none"
}, },
{
"Title": "What will be the net change in Senate seats, by party?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6670/What-will-be-the-net-change-in-Senate-seats,-by-party",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
},
{
"Title": "Which U.S. Senate race will be won by the smallest margin?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6737/Which-US-Senate-race-will-be-won-by-the-smallest-margin",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
},
{
"Title": "How many women will win election to the U.S. Senate in 2020?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6765/How-many-women-will-win-election-to-the-US-Senate-in-2020",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
},
{
"Title": "Will Democrats win the White House, Senate and House in 2020?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6770/Will-Democrats-win-the-White-House,-Senate-and-House-in-2020",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "96%"
},
{ {
"Title": "Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?", "Title": "Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District", "URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District",
@ -118,13 +41,6 @@
"Binary question?": false, "Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none" "Percentage": "none"
}, },
{
"Title": "Will Nancy Pelosi become Acting U.S. President on January 20?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6852/Will-Nancy-Pelosi-become-Acting-US-President-on-January-20",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "2%"
},
{ {
"Title": "Which party will win the 2020 House race in New York's 22nd District?", "Title": "Which party will win the 2020 House race in New York's 22nd District?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6861/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-New-York's-22nd-District", "URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6861/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-New-York's-22nd-District",
@ -186,7 +102,7 @@
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021", "URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021",
"Platform": "PredictIt", "Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true, "Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "8%" "Percentage": "10%"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Defense on Mar. 1?", "Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Defense on Mar. 1?",
@ -214,7 +130,7 @@
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022", "URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022",
"Platform": "PredictIt", "Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true, "Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "32%" "Percentage": "24%"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Treasury Secretary on Mar. 1?", "Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Treasury Secretary on Mar. 1?",
@ -230,20 +146,6 @@
"Binary question?": false, "Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none" "Percentage": "none"
}, },
{
"Title": "What will be the margin in the Georgia special Senate election runoff?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6959/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-Georgia-special-Senate-election-runoff",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
},
{
"Title": "What will be the margin in the Georgia regular Senate election runoff?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6960/What-will-be-the-margin-in-the-Georgia-regular-Senate-election-runoff",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
},
{ {
"Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed HHS Secretary on Mar. 1?", "Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed HHS Secretary on Mar. 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6965/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HHS-Secretary-on-Mar-1", "URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6965/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HHS-Secretary-on-Mar-1",
@ -277,7 +179,7 @@
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022", "URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022",
"Platform": "PredictIt", "Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true, "Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "32%" "Percentage": "20%"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Interior Secretary on Mar. 1?", "Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Interior Secretary on Mar. 1?",
@ -326,14 +228,14 @@
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14", "URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14",
"Platform": "PredictIt", "Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true, "Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "46%" "Percentage": "51%"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "Will Pete Buttigieg be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?", "Title": "Will Pete Buttigieg be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6986/Will-Pete-Buttigieg-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1", "URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6986/Will-Pete-Buttigieg-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt", "Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true, "Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "85%" "Percentage": "99%"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Veterans Affairs Secretary on Mar. 1?", "Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Veterans Affairs Secretary on Mar. 1?",
@ -354,14 +256,14 @@
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6990/Will-Amy-Klobuchar-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1", "URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6990/Will-Amy-Klobuchar-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt", "Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true, "Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "2%" "Percentage": "1%"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "Will Elizabeth Warren be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?", "Title": "Will Elizabeth Warren be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6991/Will-Elizabeth-Warren-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1", "URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6991/Will-Elizabeth-Warren-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt", "Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true, "Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "2%" "Percentage": "1%"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed OMB Director on Mar. 1?", "Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed OMB Director on Mar. 1?",
@ -410,63 +312,35 @@
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary", "URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary",
"Platform": "PredictIt", "Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true, "Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "95%" "Percentage": "96%"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "Will Israel hold national elections for Knesset in 2021?", "Title": "Will Israel hold national elections for Knesset in 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7007/Will-Israel-hold-national-elections-for-Knesset-in-2021", "URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7007/Will-Israel-hold-national-elections-for-Knesset-in-2021",
"Platform": "PredictIt", "Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true, "Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "98%" "Percentage": "99%"
},
{
"Title": "Which Georgia Senate candidate will win the most runoff votes?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7008/Which-Georgia-Senate-candidate-will-win-the-most-runoff-votes",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
},
{
"Title": "Which Georgia Senate candidate will win the fewest runoff votes?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7009/Which-Georgia-Senate-candidate-will-win-the-fewest-runoff-votes",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
},
{
"Title": "How many votes in the Georgia regular Senate runoff election?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7011/How-many-votes-in-the-Georgia-regular-Senate-runoff-election",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
},
{
"Title": "How many votes in the Georgia special Senate runoff election?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7012/How-many-votes-in-the-Georgia-special-Senate-runoff-election",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024?", "Title": "Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024", "URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024",
"Platform": "PredictIt", "Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true, "Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "44%" "Percentage": "43%"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023?", "Title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023", "URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023",
"Platform": "PredictIt", "Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true, "Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "20%" "Percentage": "22%"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?", "Title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary", "URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary",
"Platform": "PredictIt", "Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true, "Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "31%" "Percentage": "27%"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?", "Title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?",
@ -487,14 +361,14 @@
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary", "URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary",
"Platform": "PredictIt", "Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true, "Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "17%" "Percentage": "12%"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary?", "Title": "Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary", "URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary",
"Platform": "PredictIt", "Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true, "Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "30%" "Percentage": "37%"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed USAID Administrator on Mar. 16?", "Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed USAID Administrator on Mar. 16?",
@ -508,7 +382,7 @@
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary", "URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary",
"Platform": "PredictIt", "Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true, "Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "19%" "Percentage": "25%"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?", "Title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?",
@ -529,7 +403,7 @@
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021", "URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021",
"Platform": "PredictIt", "Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true, "Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "54%" "Percentage": "71%"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election?", "Title": "How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election?",
@ -543,7 +417,7 @@
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom", "URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom",
"Platform": "PredictIt", "Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true, "Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "71%" "Percentage": "63%"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31?", "Title": "Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31?",
@ -560,45 +434,192 @@
"Percentage": "none" "Percentage": "none"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "Will there be a statewide recount in either Georgia Senate runoff?", "Title": "Will the Senate convict Donald Trump in Biden's first 100 days?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7043/Will-there-be-a-statewide-recount-in-either-Georgia-Senate-runoff", "URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7050/Will-the-Senate-convict-Donald-Trump-in-Biden's-first-100-days",
"Platform": "PredictIt", "Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true, "Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "2%" "Percentage": "6%"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "Will Donald Trump be impeached again before the end of his term?", "Title": "Will Lisa Murkowski be a Republican on April 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7044/Will-Donald-Trump-be-impeached-again-before-the-end-of-his-term", "URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7051/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-a-Republican-on-April-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt", "Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true, "Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "92%" "Percentage": "92%"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "How many Yea votes for a Trump impeachment resolution before noon Jan. 20?", "Title": "Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7045/How-many-Yea-votes-for-a-Trump-impeachment-resolution-before-noon-Jan-20", "URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination",
"Platform": "PredictIt", "Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false, "Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none" "Percentage": "none"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "When will Jon Ossoff be sworn in as a U.S. Senator?", "Title": "How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7046/When-will-Jon-Ossoff-be-sworn-in-as-a-US-Senator", "URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7054/How-many-Senators-will-vote-to-convict-Donald-Trump-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt", "Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false, "Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none" "Percentage": "none"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "When will Raphael Warnock be sworn in as a U.S. Senator?", "Title": "Will Mitch McConnell vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7048/When-will-Raphael-Warnock-be-sworn-in-as-a-US-Senator", "URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7055/Will-Mitch-McConnell-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "13%"
},
{
"Title": "Will Mitt Romney vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7056/Will-Mitt-Romney-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "90%"
},
{
"Title": "Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination",
"Platform": "PredictIt", "Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false, "Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none" "Percentage": "none"
}, },
{ {
"Title": "How many Yea votes in House for 25th Amendment resolution by Jan. 13?", "Title": "Will Susan Collins vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7049/How-many-Yea-votes-in-House-for-25th-Amendment-resolution-by-Jan-13", "URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7058/Will-Susan-Collins-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "62%"
},
{
"Title": "Will John Thune vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7059/Will-John-Thune-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "7%"
},
{
"Title": "How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election",
"Platform": "PredictIt", "Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false, "Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none" "Percentage": "none"
},
{
"Title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Pete Buttigieg as Transportation Secretary?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7064/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Pete-Buttigieg-as-Transportation-Secretary",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
},
{
"Title": "Will Thom Tillis vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7066/Will-Thom-Tillis-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "5%"
},
{
"Title": "Will Joe Manchin vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7067/Will-Joe-Manchin-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "92%"
},
{
"Title": "Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
},
{
"Title": "Will Richard Burr vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7070/Will-Richard-Burr-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "9%"
},
{
"Title": "Will Rob Portman vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7071/Will-Rob-Portman-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "20%"
},
{
"Title": "Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "15%"
},
{
"Title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Gina Raimondo as Commerce Secretary?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7073/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Gina-Raimondo-as-Commerce-Secretary",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
},
{
"Title": "Will the Senate censure Josh Hawley before May 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7074/Will-the-Senate-censure-Josh-Hawley-before-May-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "20%"
},
{
"Title": "Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "7%"
},
{
"Title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Alejandro Mayorkas as Homeland Security Sec.?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7076/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Alejandro-Mayorkas-as-Homeland-Security-Sec",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
},
{
"Title": "Will Lisa Murkowski vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7077/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "87%"
},
{
"Title": "Will Italy hold national elections before June 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7078/Will-Italy-hold-national-elections-before-June-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "25%"
},
{
"Title": "Will Ben Sasse vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7080/Will-Ben-Sasse-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "80%"
},
{
"Title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Jennifer Granholm as Energy Secretary?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7081/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Jennifer-Granholm-as-Energy-Secretary",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
},
{
"Title": "Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "79%"
},
{
"Title": "Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "12%"
} }
] ]

4
data/template-questions.csv
View File

@ -1,2 +1,2 @@
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts","# Forecasters" "Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts"
"Some title","someurl.com","some platform",true,"X%/none",15,10 "Some title","someurl.com","some platform",true,"X%/none",15
1 Title URL Platform Binary question? Percentage # Forecasts # Forecasters
2 Some title someurl.com some platform true X%/none 15 10

3
data/template-questions.json
View File

@ -4,7 +4,6 @@
"Platform": "some platform", "Platform": "some platform",
"Binary question?": true, "Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "X%/none", "Percentage": "X%/none",
"# Forecasts": 15, "# Forecasts": 15
"# Forecasters": 10
} }
] ]

17
src/elicit-fetch.js
View File

@ -1,11 +1,12 @@
/* Imports */ /* Imports */
import fs from "fs" import fs from "fs"
import axios from "axios"
import Papa from "papaparse" import Papa from "papaparse"
import open from "open" import open from "open"
import readline from "readline" import readline from "readline"
/* Definitions */ /* Definitions */
let downloadurl = 'https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestion&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0&predictors=community' let elicitEndpoint = "https://elicit.org/api/v1/binary-questions/csv?binaryQuestions.resolved=false&binaryQuestions.search=&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&predictors=community"
/* Support functions */ /* Support functions */
let avg = (array) => array.reduce((a, b) => Number(a) + Number(b)) / array.length; let avg = (array) => array.reduce((a, b) => Number(a) + Number(b)) / array.length;
@ -45,7 +46,7 @@ function processArray(arrayQuestions){
let numforecasters = (unique(forecasters)).length let numforecasters = (unique(forecasters)).length
if(numforecasters >= 10){ if(numforecasters >= 10){
let url = `https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=${title.replace(" ", "%20")}&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0` let url = `https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=${title.replace(/ /g, "%20")}&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0`
let forecasts = questionsObj[question].forecasts let forecasts = questionsObj[question].forecasts
//console.log(forecasts) //console.log(forecasts)
@ -89,14 +90,9 @@ async function awaitdownloadconfirmation(message,callback){
let filePath = "./data/elicit-binary_export.csv" let filePath = "./data/elicit-binary_export.csv"
export async function elicit(){ export async function elicit(){
console.log('A browser tab will open. Please download the csv to /data/elicit-binary_export.csv by clicking on "Download CSV"') let csvContent = await axios.get(elicitEndpoint)
await sleep(3000) .then(query => query.data)
await open(downloadurl); await Papa.parse(csvContent, {
await awaitdownloadconfirmation('Press enter when you have downloaded the csv to /data/elicit-binary_export.csv',async () => {
let csvFile = fs.readFileSync(filePath, {encoding: 'utf8'})
let csvData = csvFile.toString(csvFile)
//console.log(csvData)
await Papa.parse(csvData, {
header: true, header: true,
complete: results => { complete: results => {
console.log('Downloaded', results.data.length, 'records.'); console.log('Downloaded', results.data.length, 'records.');
@ -105,6 +101,5 @@ export async function elicit(){
processArray(results.data) processArray(results.data)
} }
}); });
})
} }
//elicit() //elicit()

14
src/index.js
View File

@ -9,12 +9,13 @@ import {goodjudgmentopen} from "./goodjudmentopen-fetch.js"
import {metaculus} from "./metaculus-fetch.js" import {metaculus} from "./metaculus-fetch.js"
import {polymarket} from "./polymarket-fetch.js" import {polymarket} from "./polymarket-fetch.js"
import {predictit} from "./predictit-fetch.js" import {predictit} from "./predictit-fetch.js"
import {omen} from "./omen-fetch.js"
/* Definitions */ /* Definitions */
let opts = {} let opts = {}
let json2csvParser = new Parser({ transforms: [transforms.flatten()]}); let json2csvParser = new Parser({ transforms: [transforms.flatten()]});
//let parse = csv => json2csvParser.parse(csv); //let parse = csv => json2csvParser.parse(csv);
let sets = ["template", "elicit", "metaculus", "predictit", "polymarket", "csetforetell", "goodjudmentopen"] let sets = ["template", "elicit", "metaculus", "predictit", "polymarket", "csetforetell", "goodjudmentopen", "omen"]
let suffix = "-questions" let suffix = "-questions"
let locationData = "./data/" let locationData = "./data/"
let sleep = (ms) => new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, ms)); let sleep = (ms) => new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, ms));
@ -82,9 +83,12 @@ let executeoption = async (option) => {
predictit() predictit()
break; break;
case 7: case 7:
coverttocsvandmerge() omen()
break; break;
case 8: case 8:
coverttocsvandmerge()
break;
case 9:
await elicit() await elicit()
await sleep(30000) // The user only has 30secs. Not really ideal. await sleep(30000) // The user only has 30secs. Not really ideal.
await csetforetell() await csetforetell()
@ -92,6 +96,7 @@ let executeoption = async (option) => {
await metaculus() await metaculus()
await polymarket() await polymarket()
await predictit() await predictit()
await omen()
await coverttocsvandmerge() await coverttocsvandmerge()
break; break;
default: default:
@ -108,7 +113,8 @@ let whattodoMessage = `What do you want to do?
[4]: Download predictions from metaculus [4]: Download predictions from metaculus
[5]: Download predictions from polymarket [5]: Download predictions from polymarket
[6]: Download predictions from predictit [6]: Download predictions from predictit
[7]: Convert predictions to csvs and merge them into one big file (requires steps 1-6) [7]: Download predictions from omen
[8]: All of the above [8]: Convert predictions to csvs and merge them into one big file (requires steps 1-7)
[9]: All of the above
Choose one option, wisely: #` Choose one option, wisely: #`
whattodo(whattodoMessage, executeoption) whattodo(whattodoMessage, executeoption)

83
src/omen-fetch.js Normal file
View File

@ -0,0 +1,83 @@
/* Imports */
import fs from 'fs'
import axios from "axios"
/* Definitions */
let graphQLendpoint = 'https://api.thegraph.com/subgraphs/name/protofire/omen'
// https://github.com/protofire/omen-subgraph
// https://thegraph.com/explorer/subgraph/protofire/omen
async function fetchAllContractData(){
let daysSinceEra = Math.round(Date.now()/(1000*24*60*60))-50 // last 30 days
let response = await axios({
url: graphQLendpoint,
method: 'POST',
headers: ({ 'Content-Type': 'application/json' }),
data: JSON.stringify(({ query: `
{
fixedProductMarketMakers(first: 1000,
where: {
lastActiveDay_gt: ${daysSinceEra}
}
){
id
lastActiveDay
question{
title
}
outcomeSlotCount
outcomeTokenMarginalPrices
usdVolume
usdLiquidityMeasure
resolutionTimestamp
}
}
`
})),
})
.then(res => res.data)
.then(res => res.data.fixedProductMarketMakers)
//console.log(response)
return response
}
async function fetch_all(){
let allData = await fetchAllContractData()
let results = []
for(let data of allData){
if(data.question!=null &
data.usdLiquidityMeasure != '0' &
data.resolutionTimestamp == null &
data.question.title != "ssdds"){
console.log(data)
console.log(data.usdLiquidityMeasure)
let isbinary = Number(data.outcomeSlotCount) == 2
let numYes = Number(data.outcomeTokenMarginalPrices[0])
let numNo = Number(data.outcomeTokenMarginalPrices[1])
let percentage = (numYes/(numYes+numNo))*100
let obj = {
Title: data.question.title,
URL: "https://omen.eth.link/#/"+data.id,
Platform: "Omen",
"Binary question?" : isbinary,
marginalPrices: data.outcomeTokenMarginalPrices,
"Percentage": isbinary?(percentage.toFixed(4) + "%"):"none",
}
console.log(obj)
results.push(obj)
}
}
return results
}
/* Body */
export async function omen(){
let result = await fetch_all()
//console.log(result)
let string = JSON.stringify(result,null, 2)
fs.writeFileSync('./data/omen-questions.json', string);
console.log("Done")
}
//omen()

17
src/polymarket-fetch.js
View File

@ -6,12 +6,19 @@ import axios from "axios"
let graphQLendpoint = 'https://subgraph-matic.poly.market/subgraphs/name/TokenUnion/polymarket3' let graphQLendpoint = 'https://subgraph-matic.poly.market/subgraphs/name/TokenUnion/polymarket3'
let units = 10**6 let units = 10**6
/* Support functions */ /* Support functions
async function fetchAllContractInfo(){ // for info which the polymarket graphql API async function fetchAllContractInfo(){ // for info which the polymarket graphql API
let data = fs.readFileSync("./data/polymarket-contract-list.json") let data = fs.readFileSync("./data/polymarket-contract-list.json")
let response = JSON.parse(data) let response = JSON.parse(data)
return response return response
} }
*/
async function fetchAllContractInfo(){ // for info which the polymarket graphql API
let response = await axios.get('https://strapi-matic.poly.market/markets?active=true&_sort=volume:desc')
.then(query => query.data);
response = response.filter(res => res.closed != true)
return response
}
async function fetchAllContractData(){ async function fetchAllContractData(){
let daysSinceEra = Math.round(Date.now()/(1000*24*60*60))-2 let daysSinceEra = Math.round(Date.now()/(1000*24*60*60))-2
@ -58,13 +65,13 @@ async function fetch_all(){
let combinedObj = ({}) let combinedObj = ({})
for(let info of allInfo){ for(let info of allInfo){
let address = info.address let address = info.marketMakerAddress
let addressLowerCase = address.toLowerCase() let addressLowerCase = address.toLowerCase()
//delete info.history //delete info.history
combinedObj[addressLowerCase] = { combinedObj[addressLowerCase] = {
title: info.title, title: info.question,
url: info.url, url: "https://polymarket.com/market/" + info.slug,
address: info.address address: address
} }
} }
for(let data of allData){ for(let data of allData){

14
src/test.js Normal file
View File

@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
import fs from 'fs'
import axios from "axios"
let elicitEndpoint = "https://elicit.org/api/v1/binary-questions/csv?binaryQuestions.resolved=false&binaryQuestions.search=&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&predictors=community"
let main = async () => {
let response = await axios.get(elicitEndpoint)
.then(query => query.data)
console.log(response)
}
main()