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"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts"
"Conditional on President Trump NOT being convicted of ""incitement of insurrection,"" what will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022","CSET-foretell",false,"none","81"
"Conditional on President Trump being convicted of ""incitement of insurrection,"" what will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/108-conditional-on-the-senate-convicting-president-trump-of-insurrection-what-will-be-the-average-bipartisan-index-score-for-the-senate-during-congress-s-117th-session-2021-2022","CSET-foretell",false,"none","74"
"How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","69"
"How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","79"
"How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","24"
"How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","69"
"What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","35"
"Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022","CSET-foretell",true,"47%","71"
"How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/101-on-how-many-of-china-s-top-chipmakers-will-the-united-states-impose-new-export-controls-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","72"
"What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/100-what-percentage-of-the-collective-revenue-of-the-leading-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-producers-will-come-from-china-between-july-1-2020-and-june-30-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","51"
"Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell",true,"64%","168"
"What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/95-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","65"
"When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong","CSET-foretell",false,"none","154"
"What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/96-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-chips-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","65"
"What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/93-what-will-the-dollar-value-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-chips-to-china-be-in-the-first-half-of-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","71"
"What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in the first half of 2021? ","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/92-what-will-the-dollar-value-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-to-china-be-in-the-first-half-of-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","57"
"What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey","CSET-foretell",false,"none","155"
"What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/86-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-be-u-s-china-collaborations-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","89"
"Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025","CSET-foretell",true,"70%","141"
"What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/80-what-percentage-of-u-s-citizens-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2021-pew-global-attitudes-survey","CSET-foretell",false,"none","213"
"What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/79-conditional-on-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fy-2021-october-1-2020-to-september-30-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","89"
"What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/76-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","84"
"What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","174"
"How much will the U.S. government spend on surveillance-related AI grants between June 1, 2020 and May 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/41-how-much-will-the-u-s-government-spend-on-surveillance-related-ai-grants-between-june-1-2020-and-may-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","87"
"How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/32-how-many-sorties-against-chinese-aircraft-will-the-japanese-air-self-defense-force-conduct-by-april-30th-2020","CSET-foretell",false,"none","90"
"How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the ""Big 5"" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/23-how-many-new-h-1b-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fy-2020","CSET-foretell",false,"none","120"
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","Description","# Forecasts"
"How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/111-how-much-funding-will-private-u-s-tech-companies-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is ""private"" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: ""Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?""
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"How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/110-how-much-funding-will-u-s-tech-startups-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Tech Companies Threaten DemocracyFor more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: ""Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?""
","4"
"What will be the opening price of GameStop stock on Tuesday, February 16? ","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/112-what-will-be-the-opening-price-of-gamestop-stock-on-tuesday-february-16","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Context. The stock price of GameStop has increased 1700 percent over the past month after users on a Reddit subforum, Wall Street Bets, decided to invest in the stock. After the Reddit users noticed that institutional investors had aggressively shorted the stock -- indeed, shorting more than 100 percent of available shares -- they concluded that the stock price would have to increase when the institutional investors bought back their shares. By driving the price up before the institutional investors bought back their shares, the Reddit users effectively forced the institutional investors to sell at a higher price, further increasing the stock's value. The dynamics at play are unprecedented and have resulted in a stock price entirely unmoored from the value of the underlying company. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the opening GameStop stock value on Tuesday, February 16, as reported by Yahoo! Finance.The data underlying the graph is here.
","9"
"Conditional on President Trump NOT being convicted of ""incitement of insurrection,"" what will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related question. This question has a sister question conditional on President Trump's conviction. You can view it here. After the Senate trial, we will close and void (not score) the question whose condition didn't occur and keep the other question open. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for ""incitement of insurrection,"" setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a ""Trump Effect"" in which ""the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump.""
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"Conditional on President Trump being convicted of ""incitement of insurrection,"" what will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/108-conditional-on-the-senate-convicting-president-trump-of-insurrection-what-will-be-the-average-bipartisan-index-score-for-the-senate-during-congress-s-117th-session-2021-2022","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related question. This question has a sister question conditional on President Trump not being convicted. You can view it here. After the Senate trial, we will close and void (not score) the question whose condition didn't occur and keep the other question open. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for ""incitement of insurrection,"" setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a ""Trump Effect"" in which ""the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump.""
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"How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $441 million, and the correct answer was $302.8 million. This question is the crowd's biggest miss to date. DoD AI contracts over this period were notably lower than they were during the first half of 2020 ($490.5 million).Context.  The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&E and procurement. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System, Sam.gov, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an ""AI contract"" if BGOV classified it in the ""Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning"" market. It's a ""research"" contract if it has a ""Research and Development"" Product Service Code. The years are calendar years, not fiscal years. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecast: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Tech Companies Threaten Democracy To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
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"How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an ""AI grant"" if the abstract mentions either ""artificial intelligence"" or ""machine learning."" The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
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"How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related questions. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 10,793, and the correct answer was 10,808. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on arXiv data. ArXiv is an open-access repository for pre-print papers. Authors organize their papers under one or more arXiv category. For this question, a paper is an ""AI"" paper if it's labeled any of the following: artificial intelligence; computer vision; computation and language; machine learning; or robotics. This question resolves when CSET receives arXiv data through September 30, 2020. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
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"How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, ""Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol.""The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a ""bargaining unit"" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, ""workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract."" Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. ***
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"What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period June 15 to August 15, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast  was 1.15%, and the correct answer was 1.3%. Those two months were not representative of the second half of 2020 overall, however, which was 0.7%.Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term ""artificial intelligence""; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms ""privacy"" and ""security.""  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today
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"Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022","CSET-foretell",true,"47%","Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that ""China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones.""The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has stated that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.***
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"How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/101-on-how-many-of-china-s-top-chipmakers-will-the-united-states-impose-new-export-controls-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and the percentage of top SME producers' revenue that comes from China.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME). Chinese chipmakers can then use imported or domestically produced SME to produce chips domestically.For chip foundries, the top Chinese companies are Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), Hua Hong Semiconductor, Hua Li Microelectronics, and XMC. In September 2020, the Commerce Department notified the chip industry that SMIC was subject to military end-use end-user controls.For memory chips, China had three national champion companies: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC), and Fujian Jinhua Semiconductor. In October 2018, the Trump Administration placed Fujian Jinhua on the Entity List, effectively ending its ability to operate.The United States can impose export controls on technologies or companies. For the latter, the two primary mechanisms are (i) the Commerce Department's Entity List, and (ii) ""military end-use or end-user controls,"" which apply to exports to any Chinese end-user if the goods will be used for military purposes. Although the latter applies automatically to exports that satisfy the regulatory standard, the Commerce Department often notifies the chip industry when it determines that military end-use or end-user controls apply to a company, as it recently did for SMIC.For additional background, see Khan, U.S. Semiconductor Exports to China: Current Policies and Trends (2020).Data and resolution details. For this question, top chipmakers include: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC) Hua Hong Semiconductor Hua Li Microelectronics XMC SMIC and Fujian Jinhua are excluded because they were recently subjected to new export controls.New export controls will be considered imposed on a company if either (i) the Federal Register includes the addition to the Entity List, or (ii) popular media reports that the Commerce Department has notified the chip industry that the company is subject to military end-use or end-user controls.***This question is a metric for the following scenario:Four Possible Scenarios for U.S.-China [De]Coupling in the Semiconductor Industry
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"What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/100-what-percentage-of-the-collective-revenue-of-the-leading-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-producers-will-come-from-china-between-july-1-2020-and-june-30-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. The top five SME companies globally are: United States: Applied Materials; Lam Research; KLA Japan: Tokyo Electron Netherlands: ASML Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the companies' quarterly and annual public filings through the quarter ending December 31, 2021. At that date, we expect to have data for all five companies through all of 2021 with the exception that we'll have data for KLA only through June 30, 2020. As of December 3, 2020, the figure for 2020 in the graph below includes the following: Lam Research through September 30, 2020; Applied Materials through September 30, 2020; KLA through June 30, 2020; and Tokyo Electron through September 30, 2020. We will supplement the graph with additional 2020 data as it becomes available. In particular, ASML data for all of 2020 will be added after ASML submits its annual financial report covering the period through December 31, 2020.The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.
","51"
"Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell",true,"64%","Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the ""lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy."" In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden stated that if ""Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations."" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement ""automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.""Doing so might prove challenging for numerous reasons, however. President Trump is reportedly ""pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration."" The recent assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist and a possible administration change in Iran after the June election could provide additional challenges.Data and resolution details. This question resolves affirmatively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. An official statement by the United States that it's compliant with the sanctions requirements in Resolution 2231 will suffice. ***
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"What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/95-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified imports as SME if they have any of the following Harmonized System (HS) codes 8486, 903082, 903141, 854311, 901041.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.
","66"
"When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer ""after November 17, 2021."" In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. ***
","155"
"What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/96-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-chips-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context.  The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on semiconductor chips.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified imports as semiconductor chips if they have Harmonized System (HS) code 8542.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.
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"What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/93-what-will-the-dollar-value-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-chips-to-china-be-in-the-first-half-of-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on semiconductor chips.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified exports as semiconductor chips if they have Harmonized System (HS) code 8542.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.
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"What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in the first half of 2021? ","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/92-what-will-the-dollar-value-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-to-china-be-in-the-first-half-of-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified exports as SME if they have any of the following Harmonized System (HS) codes 8486, 903082, 903141, 854311, 901041.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.
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"What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey, which is still live. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
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"What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/86-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-be-u-s-china-collaborations-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
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"Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025","CSET-foretell",true,"70%","Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today
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"What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/80-what-percentage-of-u-s-citizens-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2021-pew-global-attitudes-survey","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2021. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
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"What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/79-conditional-on-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fy-2021-october-1-2020-to-september-30-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related question. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. A variation of this question—specific to O-1 visas—was previously issued for July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view those forecasts here. Context. This question includes O-1, O-2, and O-3 visas. O-1 is a category of U.S. visa for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics. O-2 visas are for individuals who assist the recipients of O-1 visas, and O-3 visas are for the spouses or children of recipients of O-1 or O-2 visas. The initial authorized period of stay is up to three years, with the possibility of extension.Data and resolution details. This question asks about what will happen assuming Vice President Biden is elected. If he is not, this question will not be scored. If President Trump is re-elected, the companion question will be scored instead.This question is based on U.S. Department of State data. The Department of State provides both annual and (unofficial) monthly statistics on nonimmigrant visa issuances. This question resolves when the Department of State publishes O visa statistics for either fiscal year 2021 or the month of September 2021, whichever comes first. This question includes visas for Mainland China only, not Taiwan.    The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
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"What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/76-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020. You can view those forecasts here. The actual data for 2020 will be included in the graph below as soon as it's available.Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade.  Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. Total exports and imports for the eight months ending August 30, 2020 were $332 billion, which puts the 2020 figure on pace for $498 billion. Data for those eight months are not included in the graph below.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
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"What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term ""artificial intelligence"" of ""machine learning""; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either ""ethics,"" ""bias,"" fairness,"" or any variant of those terms.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field
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"How much will the U.S. government spend on surveillance-related AI grants between June 1, 2020 and May 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/41-how-much-will-the-u-s-government-spend-on-surveillance-related-ai-grants-between-june-1-2020-and-may-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Context. The U.S. government funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an ""AI grant"" if the abstract mentions either ""artificial intelligence"" or ""machine learning."" A grant is ""surveillance related"" if its abstract includes the term ""surveillance,"" ""facial recognition,"" or a variant on those terms. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through May 31, 2021. For the first third of the year in question -- not reflected in the graph below -- the U.S. government spent $1.1 million on surveillance-related AI grants.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments
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"How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/32-how-many-sorties-against-chinese-aircraft-will-the-japanese-air-self-defense-force-conduct-by-april-30th-2020","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Context. Japan is a U.S. treaty ally and a major U.S. strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific. When Chinese military aircraft enter Japanese airspace without authorization, the Japanese air force sends fighter jets in response. The frequency of Chinese incursions into Japanese air space reflects tensions between China and Japan and the aggressiveness of China's foreign policy. For example, the spike in 2016 coincided with Japan's announced intention to revise its constitution in a manner China found threatening (Gui Yongtao).Data and resolution details. This question resolves in April 2021 based on official figures released by the Japanese government (Japan Air Self-Defense Force). The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
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"How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the ""Big 5"" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/23-how-many-new-h-1b-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fy-2020","CSET-foretell",false,"none","Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants (Arnold et al.). It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on ""initial approvals"" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2020.  The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The""Big 5"" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. The date range, October 1 through September 30, is the government fiscal year.The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data. As of December 2020, the Employer Data Hub has data through Q3 of FY 2020 (June 30, 2020). In the first three quarters of FY 2020, 4,650 new H-1B applications submitted by the ""Big 5"" tech companies were granted. This figure is not reflected in the chart below. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
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1 Title URL Platform Binary question? Percentage Description # Forecasts
2 Conditional on President Trump NOT being convicted of "incitement of insurrection," what will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022? How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/111-how-much-funding-will-private-u-s-tech-companies-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell false none Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is "private" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: "Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?" 81 3
3 Conditional on President Trump being convicted of "incitement of insurrection," what will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022? How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/108-conditional-on-the-senate-convicting-president-trump-of-insurrection-what-will-be-the-average-bipartisan-index-score-for-the-senate-during-congress-s-117th-session-2021-2022 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/110-how-much-funding-will-u-s-tech-startups-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell false none Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Tech Companies Threaten DemocracyFor more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: "Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?" 74 4
4 How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? What will be the opening price of GameStop stock on Tuesday, February 16? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/112-what-will-be-the-opening-price-of-gamestop-stock-on-tuesday-february-16 CSET-foretell false none Context. The stock price of GameStop has increased 1700 percent over the past month after users on a Reddit subforum, Wall Street Bets, decided to invest in the stock. After the Reddit users noticed that institutional investors had aggressively shorted the stock -- indeed, shorting more than 100 percent of available shares -- they concluded that the stock price would have to increase when the institutional investors bought back their shares. By driving the price up before the institutional investors bought back their shares, the Reddit users effectively forced the institutional investors to sell at a higher price, further increasing the stock's value. The dynamics at play are unprecedented and have resulted in a stock price entirely unmoored from the value of the underlying company. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the opening GameStop stock value on Tuesday, February 16, as reported by Yahoo! Finance.The data underlying the graph is here. 69 9
5 How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? Conditional on President Trump NOT being convicted of "incitement of insurrection," what will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022 CSET-foretell false none Related question. This question has a sister question conditional on President Trump's conviction. You can view it here. After the Senate trial, we will close and void (not score) the question whose condition didn't occur and keep the other question open. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for "incitement of insurrection," setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a "Trump Effect" in which "the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump." 79 81
6 How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? Conditional on President Trump being convicted of "incitement of insurrection," what will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/108-conditional-on-the-senate-convicting-president-trump-of-insurrection-what-will-be-the-average-bipartisan-index-score-for-the-senate-during-congress-s-117th-session-2021-2022 CSET-foretell false none Related question. This question has a sister question conditional on President Trump not being convicted. You can view it here. After the Senate trial, we will close and void (not score) the question whose condition didn't occur and keep the other question open. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for "incitement of insurrection," setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a "Trump Effect" in which "the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump." 24 74
7 How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021? How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell false none Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $441 million, and the correct answer was $302.8 million. This question is the crowd's biggest miss to date. DoD AI contracts over this period were notably lower than they were during the first half of 2020 ($490.5 million).Context.  The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&E and procurement. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System, Sam.gov, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an "AI contract" if BGOV classified it in the "Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning" market. It's a "research" contract if it has a "Research and Development" Product Service Code. The years are calendar years, not fiscal years. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecast: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Tech Companies Threaten Democracy To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 69 71
8 What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell false none Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an "AI grant" if the abstract mentions either "artificial intelligence" or "machine learning." The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 35 82
9 Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022? How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell true false 47% none Related questions. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 10,793, and the correct answer was 10,808. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on arXiv data. ArXiv is an open-access repository for pre-print papers. Authors organize their papers under one or more arXiv category. For this question, a paper is an "AI" paper if it's labeled any of the following: artificial intelligence; computer vision; computation and language; machine learning; or robotics. This question resolves when CSET receives arXiv data through September 30, 2020. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 71 27
10 How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021? How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/101-on-how-many-of-china-s-top-chipmakers-will-the-united-states-impose-new-export-controls-in-2021 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021 CSET-foretell false none Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, "Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol."The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a "bargaining unit" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, "workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract." Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. *** 72 70
11 What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021? What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/100-what-percentage-of-the-collective-revenue-of-the-leading-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-producers-will-come-from-china-between-july-1-2020-and-june-30-2021-inclusive https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell false none Related question. This question was previously issued for the period June 15 to August 15, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast  was 1.15%, and the correct answer was 1.3%. Those two months were not representative of the second half of 2020 overall, however, which was 0.7%.Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term "artificial intelligence"; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms "privacy" and "security."  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today 51 36
12 Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021? Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022 CSET-foretell true 64% 47% Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that "China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones."The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has stated that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.*** 168 72
13 What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021? How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/95-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-in-2021 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/101-on-how-many-of-china-s-top-chipmakers-will-the-united-states-impose-new-export-controls-in-2021 CSET-foretell false none Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and the percentage of top SME producers' revenue that comes from China.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME). Chinese chipmakers can then use imported or domestically produced SME to produce chips domestically.For chip foundries, the top Chinese companies are Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), Hua Hong Semiconductor, Hua Li Microelectronics, and XMC. In September 2020, the Commerce Department notified the chip industry that SMIC was subject to military end-use end-user controls.For memory chips, China had three national champion companies: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC), and Fujian Jinhua Semiconductor. In October 2018, the Trump Administration placed Fujian Jinhua on the Entity List, effectively ending its ability to operate.The United States can impose export controls on technologies or companies. For the latter, the two primary mechanisms are (i) the Commerce Department's Entity List, and (ii) "military end-use or end-user controls," which apply to exports to any Chinese end-user if the goods will be used for military purposes. Although the latter applies automatically to exports that satisfy the regulatory standard, the Commerce Department often notifies the chip industry when it determines that military end-use or end-user controls apply to a company, as it recently did for SMIC.For additional background, see Khan, U.S. Semiconductor Exports to China: Current Policies and Trends (2020).Data and resolution details. For this question, top chipmakers include: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC) Hua Hong Semiconductor Hua Li Microelectronics XMC SMIC and Fujian Jinhua are excluded because they were recently subjected to new export controls.New export controls will be considered imposed on a company if either (i) the Federal Register includes the addition to the Entity List, or (ii) popular media reports that the Commerce Department has notified the chip industry that the company is subject to military end-use or end-user controls.***This question is a metric for the following scenario:Four Possible Scenarios for U.S.-China [De]Coupling in the Semiconductor Industry 65 72
14 When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong? What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/100-what-percentage-of-the-collective-revenue-of-the-leading-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-producers-will-come-from-china-between-july-1-2020-and-june-30-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell false none Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. The top five SME companies globally are: United States: Applied Materials; Lam Research; KLA Japan: Tokyo Electron Netherlands: ASML Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the companies' quarterly and annual public filings through the quarter ending December 31, 2021. At that date, we expect to have data for all five companies through all of 2021 with the exception that we'll have data for KLA only through June 30, 2020. As of December 3, 2020, the figure for 2020 in the graph below includes the following: Lam Research through September 30, 2020; Applied Materials through September 30, 2020; KLA through June 30, 2020; and Tokyo Electron through September 30, 2020. We will supplement the graph with additional 2020 data as it becomes available. In particular, ASML data for all of 2020 will be added after ASML submits its annual financial report covering the period through December 31, 2020.The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry. 154 51
15 What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2021? Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/96-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-chips-in-2021 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021 CSET-foretell false true none 64% Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the "lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy." In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden stated that if "Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations." Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement "automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231."Doing so might prove challenging for numerous reasons, however. President Trump is reportedly "pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration." The recent assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist and a possible administration change in Iran after the June election could provide additional challenges.Data and resolution details. This question resolves affirmatively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. An official statement by the United States that it's compliant with the sanctions requirements in Resolution 2231 will suffice. *** 65 169
16 What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021? What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/93-what-will-the-dollar-value-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-chips-to-china-be-in-the-first-half-of-2021 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/95-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-in-2021 CSET-foretell false none Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified imports as SME if they have any of the following Harmonized System (HS) codes 8486, 903082, 903141, 854311, 901041.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry. 71 66
17 What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in the first half of 2021? When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/92-what-will-the-dollar-value-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-to-china-be-in-the-first-half-of-2021 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong CSET-foretell false none Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer "after November 17, 2021." In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. *** 57 155
18 What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/96-what-will-be-the-value-in-dollars-of-all-chinese-imports-of-semiconductor-chips-in-2021 CSET-foretell false none Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context.  The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on semiconductor chips.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified imports as semiconductor chips if they have Harmonized System (HS) code 8542.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry. 155 66
19 What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021? What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/86-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-be-u-s-china-collaborations-in-2021 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/93-what-will-the-dollar-value-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-chips-to-china-be-in-the-first-half-of-2021 CSET-foretell false none Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on semiconductor chips.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified exports as semiconductor chips if they have Harmonized System (HS) code 8542.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry. 89 72
20 Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025? What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in the first half of 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/92-what-will-the-dollar-value-of-u-s-exports-of-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-to-china-be-in-the-first-half-of-2021 CSET-foretell true false 70% none Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified exports as SME if they have any of the following Harmonized System (HS) codes 8486, 903082, 903141, 854311, 901041.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry. 141 58
21 What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/80-what-percentage-of-u-s-citizens-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2021-pew-global-attitudes-survey https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey CSET-foretell false none Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey, which is still live. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 213 157
22 What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)? What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/79-conditional-on-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fy-2021-october-1-2020-to-september-30-2021 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/86-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-be-u-s-china-collaborations-in-2021 CSET-foretell false none Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 89 90
23 What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021? Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/76-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2021 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025 CSET-foretell false true none 70% Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today 84 141
24 What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021? What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/80-what-percentage-of-u-s-citizens-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2021-pew-global-attitudes-survey CSET-foretell false none Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2021. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 174 215
25 How much will the U.S. government spend on surveillance-related AI grants between June 1, 2020 and May 31, 2021, inclusive? What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/41-how-much-will-the-u-s-government-spend-on-surveillance-related-ai-grants-between-june-1-2020-and-may-31-2021-inclusive https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/79-conditional-on-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fy-2021-october-1-2020-to-september-30-2021 CSET-foretell false none Related question. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. A variation of this question—specific to O-1 visas—was previously issued for July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view those forecasts here. Context. This question includes O-1, O-2, and O-3 visas. O-1 is a category of U.S. visa for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics. O-2 visas are for individuals who assist the recipients of O-1 visas, and O-3 visas are for the spouses or children of recipients of O-1 or O-2 visas. The initial authorized period of stay is up to three years, with the possibility of extension.Data and resolution details. This question asks about what will happen assuming Vice President Biden is elected. If he is not, this question will not be scored. If President Trump is re-elected, the companion question will be scored instead.This question is based on U.S. Department of State data. The Department of State provides both annual and (unofficial) monthly statistics on nonimmigrant visa issuances. This question resolves when the Department of State publishes O visa statistics for either fiscal year 2021 or the month of September 2021, whichever comes first. This question includes visas for Mainland China only, not Taiwan.    The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 87 90
26 How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive? What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/32-how-many-sorties-against-chinese-aircraft-will-the-japanese-air-self-defense-force-conduct-by-april-30th-2020 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/76-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2021 CSET-foretell false none Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020. You can view those forecasts here. The actual data for 2020 will be included in the graph below as soon as it's available.Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade.  Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. Total exports and imports for the eight months ending August 30, 2020 were $332 billion, which puts the 2020 figure on pace for $498 billion. Data for those eight months are not included in the graph below.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 90 85
27 How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive? What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/23-how-many-new-h-1b-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fy-2020 https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021 CSET-foretell false none Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term "artificial intelligence" of "machine learning"; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either "ethics," "bias," fairness," or any variant of those terms.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field 120 175
28 How much will the U.S. government spend on surveillance-related AI grants between June 1, 2020 and May 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/41-how-much-will-the-u-s-government-spend-on-surveillance-related-ai-grants-between-june-1-2020-and-may-31-2021-inclusive CSET-foretell false none Context. The U.S. government funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an "AI grant" if the abstract mentions either "artificial intelligence" or "machine learning." A grant is "surveillance related" if its abstract includes the term "surveillance," "facial recognition," or a variant on those terms. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through May 31, 2021. For the first third of the year in question -- not reflected in the graph below -- the U.S. government spent $1.1 million on surveillance-related AI grants.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments 88
29 How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/32-how-many-sorties-against-chinese-aircraft-will-the-japanese-air-self-defense-force-conduct-by-april-30th-2020 CSET-foretell false none Context. Japan is a U.S. treaty ally and a major U.S. strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific. When Chinese military aircraft enter Japanese airspace without authorization, the Japanese air force sends fighter jets in response. The frequency of Chinese incursions into Japanese air space reflects tensions between China and Japan and the aggressiveness of China's foreign policy. For example, the spike in 2016 coincided with Japan's announced intention to revise its constitution in a manner China found threatening (Gui Yongtao).Data and resolution details. This question resolves in April 2021 based on official figures released by the Japanese government (Japan Air Self-Defense Force). The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 90
30 How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive? https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/23-how-many-new-h-1b-applications-submitted-by-the-big-5-tech-companies-will-the-u-s-grant-in-fy-2020 CSET-foretell false none Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants (Arnold et al.). It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on "initial approvals" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2020.  The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The"Big 5" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. The date range, October 1 through September 30, is the government fiscal year.The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data. As of December 2020, the Employer Data Hub has data through Q3 of FY 2020 (June 30, 2020). In the first three quarters of FY 2020, 4,650 new H-1B applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies were granted. This figure is not reflected in the chart below. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. 120
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[
{
"Title": "How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
"URL": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/111-how-much-funding-will-private-u-s-tech-companies-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "3",
"# Forecasters": "3",
"Description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is \"private\" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: \"Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?\"\n"
},
{
"Title": "How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
"URL": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/110-how-much-funding-will-u-s-tech-startups-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive",
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "4",
"# Forecasters": "4",
"Description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Tech Companies Threaten DemocracyFor more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: \"Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?\"\n"
},
{
"Title": "What will be the opening price of GameStop stock on Tuesday, February 16? ",
"URL": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/112-what-will-be-the-opening-price-of-gamestop-stock-on-tuesday-february-16",
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "9",
"# Forecasters": "9",
"Description": "Context. The stock price of GameStop has increased 1700 percent over the past month after users on a Reddit subforum, Wall Street Bets, decided to invest in the stock. After the Reddit users noticed that institutional investors had aggressively shorted the stock -- indeed, shorting more than 100 percent of available shares -- they concluded that the stock price would have to increase when the institutional investors bought back their shares. By driving the price up before the institutional investors bought back their shares, the Reddit users effectively forced the institutional investors to sell at a higher price, further increasing the stock's value. The dynamics at play are unprecedented and have resulted in a stock price entirely unmoored from the value of the underlying company. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the opening GameStop stock value on Tuesday, February 16, as reported by Yahoo! Finance.The data underlying the graph is here.\n"
},
{
"Title": "Conditional on President Trump NOT being convicted of \"incitement of insurrection,\" what will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?",
"URL": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022",
@ -6,7 +36,8 @@
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "81",
"# Forecasters": "75"
"# Forecasters": "75",
"Description": "Related question. This question has a sister question conditional on President Trump's conviction. You can view it here. After the Senate trial, we will close and void (not score) the question whose condition didn't occur and keep the other question open. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for \"incitement of insurrection,\" setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a \"Trump Effect\" in which \"the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump.\" \n"
},
{
"Title": "Conditional on President Trump being convicted of \"incitement of insurrection,\" what will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?",
@ -15,7 +46,8 @@
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "74",
"# Forecasters": "69"
"# Forecasters": "69",
"Description": "Related question. This question has a sister question conditional on President Trump not being convicted. You can view it here. After the Senate trial, we will close and void (not score) the question whose condition didn't occur and keep the other question open. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for \"incitement of insurrection,\" setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a \"Trump Effect\" in which \"the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump.\" \n"
},
{
"Title": "How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
@ -23,8 +55,9 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "69",
"# Forecasters": "64"
"# Forecasts": "71",
"# Forecasters": "66",
"Description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $441 million, and the correct answer was $302.8 million. This question is the crowd's biggest miss to date. DoD AI contracts over this period were notably lower than they were during the first half of 2020 ($490.5 million).Context.  The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&E and procurement. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System, Sam.gov, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an \"AI contract\" if BGOV classified it in the \"Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning\" market. It's a \"research\" contract if it has a \"Research and Development\" Product Service Code. The years are calendar years, not fiscal years. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecast: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Tech Companies Threaten Democracy To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n"
},
{
"Title": "How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
@ -32,8 +65,9 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "79",
"# Forecasters": "73"
"# Forecasts": "82",
"# Forecasters": "76",
"Description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an \"AI grant\" if the abstract mentions either \"artificial intelligence\" or \"machine learning.\" The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n"
},
{
"Title": "How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
@ -41,8 +75,9 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "24",
"# Forecasters": "24"
"# Forecasts": "27",
"# Forecasters": "27",
"Description": "Related questions. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 10,793, and the correct answer was 10,808. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on arXiv data. ArXiv is an open-access repository for pre-print papers. Authors organize their papers under one or more arXiv category. For this question, a paper is an \"AI\" paper if it's labeled any of the following: artificial intelligence; computer vision; computation and language; machine learning; or robotics. This question resolves when CSET receives arXiv data through September 30, 2020. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n"
},
{
"Title": "How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?",
@ -50,8 +85,9 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "69",
"# Forecasters": "64"
"# Forecasts": "70",
"# Forecasters": "64",
"Description": "Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, \"Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol.\"The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a \"bargaining unit\" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, \"workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract.\" Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. ***\n"
},
{
"Title": "What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
@ -59,8 +95,9 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "35",
"# Forecasters": "33"
"# Forecasts": "36",
"# Forecasters": "34",
"Description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for the period June 15 to August 15, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast  was 1.15%, and the correct answer was 1.3%. Those two months were not representative of the second half of 2020 overall, however, which was 0.7%.Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term \"artificial intelligence\"; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms \"privacy\" and \"security.\"  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today \n"
},
{
"Title": "Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?",
@ -68,8 +105,9 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "47%",
"# Forecasts": "71",
"# Forecasters": "53"
"# Forecasts": "72",
"# Forecasters": "53",
"Description": "Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that \"China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones.\"The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has stated that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.***\n"
},
{
"Title": "How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?",
@ -78,7 +116,8 @@
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "72",
"# Forecasters": "66"
"# Forecasters": "66",
"Description": "Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and the percentage of top SME producers' revenue that comes from China.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME). Chinese chipmakers can then use imported or domestically produced SME to produce chips domestically.For chip foundries, the top Chinese companies are Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), Hua Hong Semiconductor, Hua Li Microelectronics, and XMC. In September 2020, the Commerce Department notified the chip industry that SMIC was subject to military end-use end-user controls.For memory chips, China had three national champion companies: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC), and Fujian Jinhua Semiconductor. In October 2018, the Trump Administration placed Fujian Jinhua on the Entity List, effectively ending its ability to operate.The United States can impose export controls on technologies or companies. For the latter, the two primary mechanisms are (i) the Commerce Department's Entity List, and (ii) \"military end-use or end-user controls,\" which apply to exports to any Chinese end-user if the goods will be used for military purposes. Although the latter applies automatically to exports that satisfy the regulatory standard, the Commerce Department often notifies the chip industry when it determines that military end-use or end-user controls apply to a company, as it recently did for SMIC.For additional background, see Khan, U.S. Semiconductor Exports to China: Current Policies and Trends (2020).Data and resolution details. For this question, top chipmakers include: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC) Hua Hong Semiconductor Hua Li Microelectronics XMC SMIC and Fujian Jinhua are excluded because they were recently subjected to new export controls.New export controls will be considered imposed on a company if either (i) the Federal Register includes the addition to the Entity List, or (ii) popular media reports that the Commerce Department has notified the chip industry that the company is subject to military end-use or end-user controls.***This question is a metric for the following scenario:Four Possible Scenarios for U.S.-China [De]Coupling in the Semiconductor Industry\n"
},
{
"Title": "What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?",
@ -87,7 +126,8 @@
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "51",
"# Forecasters": "48"
"# Forecasters": "48",
"Description": "Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. The top five SME companies globally are: United States: Applied Materials; Lam Research; KLA Japan: Tokyo Electron Netherlands: ASML Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the companies' quarterly and annual public filings through the quarter ending December 31, 2021. At that date, we expect to have data for all five companies through all of 2021 with the exception that we'll have data for KLA only through June 30, 2020. As of December 3, 2020, the figure for 2020 in the graph below includes the following: Lam Research through September 30, 2020; Applied Materials through September 30, 2020; KLA through June 30, 2020; and Tokyo Electron through September 30, 2020. We will supplement the graph with additional 2020 data as it becomes available. In particular, ASML data for all of 2020 will be added after ASML submits its annual financial report covering the period through December 31, 2020.The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?",
@ -95,8 +135,9 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "64%",
"# Forecasts": "168",
"# Forecasters": "127"
"# Forecasts": "169",
"# Forecasters": "127",
"Description": "Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the \"lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy.\" In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden stated that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"Doing so might prove challenging for numerous reasons, however. President Trump is reportedly \"pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration.\" The recent assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist and a possible administration change in Iran after the June election could provide additional challenges.Data and resolution details. This question resolves affirmatively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. An official statement by the United States that it's compliant with the sanctions requirements in Resolution 2231 will suffice. ***\n"
},
{
"Title": "What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021?",
@ -104,8 +145,9 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "65",
"# Forecasters": "56"
"# Forecasts": "66",
"# Forecasters": "56",
"Description": "Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified imports as SME if they have any of the following Harmonized System (HS) codes 8486, 903082, 903141, 854311, 901041.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.\n"
},
{
"Title": "When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?",
@ -113,8 +155,9 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "154",
"# Forecasters": "111"
"# Forecasts": "155",
"# Forecasters": "111",
"Description": "Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer \"after November 17, 2021.\" In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. ***\n"
},
{
"Title": "What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2021?",
@ -122,8 +165,9 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "65",
"# Forecasters": "56"
"# Forecasts": "66",
"# Forecasters": "56",
"Description": "Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context.  The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on semiconductor chips.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified imports as semiconductor chips if they have Harmonized System (HS) code 8542.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.\n"
},
{
"Title": "What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021?",
@ -131,8 +175,9 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "71",
"# Forecasters": "57"
"# Forecasts": "72",
"# Forecasters": "57",
"Description": "Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on semiconductor chips.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified exports as semiconductor chips if they have Harmonized System (HS) code 8542.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.\n"
},
{
"Title": "What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in the first half of 2021? ",
@ -140,8 +185,9 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "57",
"# Forecasters": "44"
"# Forecasts": "58",
"# Forecasters": "44",
"Description": "Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and Chinese imports of semiconductor chips.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on United Nations Comtrade data. We classified exports as SME if they have any of the following Harmonized System (HS) codes 8486, 903082, 903141, 854311, 901041.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.\n"
},
{
"Title": "What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?",
@ -149,8 +195,9 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "155",
"# Forecasters": "136"
"# Forecasts": "157",
"# Forecasters": "136",
"Description": "Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey, which is still live. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n"
},
{
"Title": "What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?",
@ -158,8 +205,9 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "89",
"# Forecasters": "84"
"# Forecasts": "90",
"# Forecasters": "85",
"Description": "Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?",
@ -168,7 +216,8 @@
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "70%",
"# Forecasts": "141",
"# Forecasters": "109"
"# Forecasters": "109",
"Description": "Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today\n"
},
{
"Title": "What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?",
@ -176,8 +225,9 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "213",
"# Forecasters": "169"
"# Forecasts": "215",
"# Forecasters": "169",
"Description": "Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2021. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n"
},
{
"Title": "What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?",
@ -185,8 +235,9 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "89",
"# Forecasters": "72"
"# Forecasts": "90",
"# Forecasters": "73",
"Description": "Related question. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. A variation of this question—specific to O-1 visas—was previously issued for July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view those forecasts here. Context. This question includes O-1, O-2, and O-3 visas. O-1 is a category of U.S. visa for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics. O-2 visas are for individuals who assist the recipients of O-1 visas, and O-3 visas are for the spouses or children of recipients of O-1 or O-2 visas. The initial authorized period of stay is up to three years, with the possibility of extension.Data and resolution details. This question asks about what will happen assuming Vice President Biden is elected. If he is not, this question will not be scored. If President Trump is re-elected, the companion question will be scored instead.This question is based on U.S. Department of State data. The Department of State provides both annual and (unofficial) monthly statistics on nonimmigrant visa issuances. This question resolves when the Department of State publishes O visa statistics for either fiscal year 2021 or the month of September 2021, whichever comes first. This question includes visas for Mainland China only, not Taiwan.    The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n"
},
{
"Title": "What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?",
@ -194,8 +245,9 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "84",
"# Forecasters": "64"
"# Forecasts": "85",
"# Forecasters": "64",
"Description": "Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020. You can view those forecasts here. The actual data for 2020 will be included in the graph below as soon as it's available.Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade.  Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. Total exports and imports for the eight months ending August 30, 2020 were $332 billion, which puts the 2020 figure on pace for $498 billion. Data for those eight months are not included in the graph below.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n"
},
{
"Title": "What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?",
@ -203,8 +255,9 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "174",
"# Forecasters": "129"
"# Forecasts": "175",
"# Forecasters": "129",
"Description": "Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term \"artificial intelligence\" of \"machine learning\"; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either \"ethics,\" \"bias,\" fairness,\" or any variant of those terms.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field\n"
},
{
"Title": "How much will the U.S. government spend on surveillance-related AI grants between June 1, 2020 and May 31, 2021, inclusive?",
@ -212,8 +265,9 @@
"Platform": "CSET-foretell",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "87",
"# Forecasters": "68"
"# Forecasts": "88",
"# Forecasters": "69",
"Description": "Context. The U.S. government funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an \"AI grant\" if the abstract mentions either \"artificial intelligence\" or \"machine learning.\" A grant is \"surveillance related\" if its abstract includes the term \"surveillance,\" \"facial recognition,\" or a variant on those terms. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through May 31, 2021. For the first third of the year in question -- not reflected in the graph below -- the U.S. government spent $1.1 million on surveillance-related AI grants.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments \n"
},
{
"Title": "How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?",
@ -222,7 +276,8 @@
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "90",
"# Forecasters": "57"
"# Forecasters": "57",
"Description": "Context. Japan is a U.S. treaty ally and a major U.S. strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific. When Chinese military aircraft enter Japanese airspace without authorization, the Japanese air force sends fighter jets in response. The frequency of Chinese incursions into Japanese air space reflects tensions between China and Japan and the aggressiveness of China's foreign policy. For example, the spike in 2016 coincided with Japan's announced intention to revise its constitution in a manner China found threatening (Gui Yongtao).Data and resolution details. This question resolves in April 2021 based on official figures released by the Japanese government (Japan Air Self-Defense Force). The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n"
},
{
"Title": "How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the \"Big 5\" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive?",
@ -231,6 +286,7 @@
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "120",
"# Forecasters": "75"
"# Forecasters": "75",
"Description": "Context. H-1B is a visa category for skilled workers, accounting for about 108,000 annual entrants (Arnold et al.). It's also a common immigration pathway for AI-skilled workers. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on \"initial approvals\" reported in the USCIS annual summary for FY 2020.  The chart below is based on the same data for previous fiscal years. The\"Big 5\" tech companies are Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft, including all affiliates with those words at the beginning of their title. For example, Amazon includes Amazon Web Services and Amazon Fulfillment Services. The date range, October 1 through September 30, is the government fiscal year.The H-1B Employer Data Hub provides quarterly updates on H-1B statistics. For example, if one downloads all data for FY 2020 and then filters by the Big-5 tech companies, they'll see H-1B statistics as of the most recent quarter for which there's data. As of December 2020, the Employer Data Hub has data through Q3 of FY 2020 (June 30, 2020). In the first three quarters of FY 2020, 4,650 new H-1B applications submitted by the \"Big 5\" tech companies were granted. This figure is not reflected in the chart below. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n"
}
]

662
data/elicit-questions.csv
View File

@ -1,341 +1,341 @@
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%2050%20prediction%20questions%20embedded%20in%20LessWrong%20posts%20and%20comments%20this%20month?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.39%",337
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more%20than%2050%20people%20predict%20on%20this%20post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"82.03%",230
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36.85%",158
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20without%20additional%20intervention%20from%20the%20existing%20AI%20Alignment%20research%20community?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"52.70%",137
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20arms%20race%20dynamic%20in%20the%20lead-up%20to%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"75.52%",113
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20new%20English%20Strain%20is%20at%20least%2050%%20more%20infectious%20than%20the%20currently%20dominant%20American%20strain%20of%20Covid-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"63.37%",211
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20single%20AGI%20or%20AGI%20project%20achieve%20a%20decisive%20strategic%20advantage?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"61.63%",115
"How vivid is your visual imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"50.68%",119
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%20deep%20learning%20with%20small%20variations,%20without%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.50%",110
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"42.70%",107
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20we%20build%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.79%",100
"How vivid is your sound imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20sound%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"61.17%",106
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20another%20AI%20Winter%20(a%20period%20commonly%20referred%20to%20as%20such)%20before%20we%20develop%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.63%",95
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%201-3%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"43.12%",112
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20an%20additional%20distinct%20large%20wave%20of%20Covid-19%20infections%20in%20the%20United%20States%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"58.18%",158
"How vivid is your taste imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20taste%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"25.73%",84
"How vivid is your smell imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20smell%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"25.41%",82
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20need%20>%203%20breakthroughs%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning%20to%20get%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"25.38%",84
"How frequently do you think in words?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"78.13%",86
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"19.76%",87
"Do you have an internal monologue?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"82.28%",80
"How good is your memory?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"52.65%",78
"How vivid is your touch imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36.13%",79
"How much control do you have over your mind?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20much%20control%20do%20you%20have%20over%20your%20mind?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"45.59%",76
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"42.76%",85
"Trump will win a second term","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20win%20a%20second%20term&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46.20%",74
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"31.56%",66
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20continue%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24.51%",75
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the%20post%20""Embedded%20Interactive%20Predictions%20on%20LessWrong""%20get%20more%20than%2080%20karma%20by%20December%201st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"89.52%",83
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Having%20a%20button/prompt%20for%20Elicit%20on%20LW%20would%20increase%20usage%20by%20at%20least%205x&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"60.22%",41
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025%20bitcoin%20will%20no%20longer%20be%20the%20highest%20traded%20cryptocurrency.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.49%",37
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Singularity%20will%20not%20occur%20by%20the%20year%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"68.71%",42
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"61.12%",42
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202025,%20most%20of%20Russia%20will%20become%20part%20of%20the%20United%20States,%20or%20the%20reverse,%20or%20they%20will%20in%20some%20other%20manner%20become%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state,%20or%20part%20of%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.79%",34
"The Pope will be assassinated.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Pope%20will%20be%20assassinated.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.03%",32
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.38%",47
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36.91%",34
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"83.00%",40
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"38.97%",31
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin""%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.91%",33
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"82.13%",32
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.00%",34
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"54.94%",47
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.81%",31
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"90.27%",33
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organised%20religions%20will%20no%20longer%20exist%20in%20any%20meaningful%20way%20and%20religion%20will%20no%20longer%20have%20any%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.68%",28
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.24%",42
"Trump wins Nobel","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.55%",38
"California will secede from the United States before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.68%",34
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.23%",26
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.88%",26
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46.84%",32
"...be an environmental disaster.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.37%",27
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.46%",26
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"35.12%",25
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"58.56%",34
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.69%",26
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24.39%",28
"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"62.27%",26
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"68.88%",25
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20""Inverse%20AlphaFold""%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.91%",33
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"84.11%",27
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"19.35%",23
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6.67%",24
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"99.41%",22
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"58.15%",39
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"60.84%",32
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20.48%",29
"...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"70.19%",21
"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"37.46%",24
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.36%",25
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"27.83%",35
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.68%",22
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"34.13%",47
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.74%",23
"Google will survive for 15 more years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"88.38%",21
"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"15.33%",21
"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.45%",22
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"21.64%",22
"...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36.38%",21
"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"83.14%",22
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"72.43%",23
"United States will invade Australia and take over","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.00%",21
"...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.05%",20
"...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"48.40%",20
"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.21%",19
"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"74.85%",20
"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6.95%",20
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.94%",35
"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"80.89%",27
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"39.69%",35
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"86.75%",24
"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.05%",21
"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"54.20%",20
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20""Clogged%20drainpipe""%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"64.34%",50
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.27%",26
"Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"51.78%",18
"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.32%",22
"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"12.05%",21
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"64.80%",40
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"67.55%",22
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"64.28%",18
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.80%",25
"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"30.95%",20
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20""a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true"".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.27%",26
"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.89%",19
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"83.95%",21
"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.39%",18
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.72%",18
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"35.00%",23
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.17%",23
"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"69.33%",18
"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"21.62%",21
"aliens invade earth in 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.94%",18
"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"12.79%",19
"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20""in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"19.11%",19
"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"34.67%",18
"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"35.53%",19
"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"57.78%",18
"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"77.71%",17
"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"42.89%",18
"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"95.32%",19
"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.12%",17
"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.13%",16
"US presidents term limits abolished","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.24%",17
"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.90%",20
"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"43.47%",19
"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"76.55%",20
"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"92.69%",16
"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"73.94%",17
"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"66.47%",17
"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.44%",16
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.48%",25
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"59.36%",25
"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"78.12%",17
"Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.18%",17
"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"41.47%",17
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.90%",29
"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.71%",17
"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.00%",20
"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20""World%20War%20III""%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20""allies""%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"93.31%",16
"C still widely in use in the 2020s","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"93.53%",15
"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.81%",16
"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.47%",15
"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.79%",14
"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20""Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow"".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.86%",14
"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"5.94%",17
"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.21%",14
"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.39%",18
"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.00%",15
"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"82.20%",15
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.39%",18
"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6.20%",15
"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.73%",15
"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"87.18%",17
"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.00%",18
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","Description","# Forecasts"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%2050%20prediction%20questions%20embedded%20in%20LessWrong%20posts%20and%20comments%20this%20month?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.39%",,337
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more%20than%2050%20people%20predict%20on%20this%20post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"82.03%",,230
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36.85%",,158
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20without%20additional%20intervention%20from%20the%20existing%20AI%20Alignment%20research%20community?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"52.70%",,137
"Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20arms%20race%20dynamic%20in%20the%20lead-up%20to%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"75.52%",,113
"The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20new%20English%20Strain%20is%20at%20least%2050%%20more%20infectious%20than%20the%20currently%20dominant%20American%20strain%20of%20Covid-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"63.37%",,211
"Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20single%20AGI%20or%20AGI%20project%20achieve%20a%20decisive%20strategic%20advantage?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"61.63%",,115
"How vivid is your visual imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"50.68%",,119
"Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%20deep%20learning%20with%20small%20variations,%20without%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.50%",,110
"Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"42.70%",,107
"Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20we%20build%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.79%",,100
"How vivid is your sound imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20sound%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"61.17%",,106
"Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20another%20AI%20Winter%20(a%20period%20commonly%20referred%20to%20as%20such)%20before%20we%20develop%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.63%",,95
"Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%201-3%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"43.12%",,112
"There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20an%20additional%20distinct%20large%20wave%20of%20Covid-19%20infections%20in%20the%20United%20States%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"58.18%",,158
"How vivid is your taste imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20taste%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"25.73%",,84
"How vivid is your smell imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20smell%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"25.41%",,82
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20need%20>%203%20breakthroughs%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning%20to%20get%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"25.38%",,84
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"19.76%",,87
"How frequently do you think in words?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"78.13%",,86
"Do you have an internal monologue?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"82.28%",,80
"How vivid is your touch imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36.13%",,79
"How good is your memory?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"52.65%",,78
"How much control do you have over your mind?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20much%20control%20do%20you%20have%20over%20your%20mind?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"45.59%",,76
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"42.76%",,85
"Trump will win a second term","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20win%20a%20second%20term&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46.20%",,74
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"31.56%",,66
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20continue%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24.51%",,75
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the%20post%20""Embedded%20Interactive%20Predictions%20on%20LessWrong""%20get%20more%20than%2080%20karma%20by%20December%201st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"89.52%",,83
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Having%20a%20button/prompt%20for%20Elicit%20on%20LW%20would%20increase%20usage%20by%20at%20least%205x&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"60.22%",,41
"By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025%20bitcoin%20will%20no%20longer%20be%20the%20highest%20traded%20cryptocurrency.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.49%",,37
"A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Singularity%20will%20not%20occur%20by%20the%20year%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"68.71%",,42
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"61.12%",,42
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202025,%20most%20of%20Russia%20will%20become%20part%20of%20the%20United%20States,%20or%20the%20reverse,%20or%20they%20will%20in%20some%20other%20manner%20become%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state,%20or%20part%20of%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.79%",,34
"The Pope will be assassinated.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Pope%20will%20be%20assassinated.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.03%",,32
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"83.00%",,40
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36.91%",,34
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.38%",,47
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin""%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.91%",,33
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"38.97%",,31
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.81%",,31
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"54.94%",,47
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.00%",,34
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"82.13%",,32
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"90.27%",,33
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organised%20religions%20will%20no%20longer%20exist%20in%20any%20meaningful%20way%20and%20religion%20will%20no%20longer%20have%20any%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.68%",,28
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.24%",,42
"California will secede from the United States before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.68%",,34
"Trump wins Nobel","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.55%",,38
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.23%",,26
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.88%",,26
"...be an environmental disaster.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.37%",,27
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46.84%",,32
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"58.56%",,34
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"35.12%",,25
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24.39%",,28
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.69%",,26
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.46%",,26
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"84.11%",,27
"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"62.27%",,26
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"19.35%",,23
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"68.88%",,25
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6.67%",,24
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20""Inverse%20AlphaFold""%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.91%",,33
"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"37.46%",,24
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"99.41%",,22
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"58.15%",,39
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20.48%",,29
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"60.84%",,32
"...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"70.19%",,21
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.36%",,25
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.68%",,22
"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"15.33%",,21
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"27.83%",,35
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.74%",,23
"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.45%",,22
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"34.13%",,47
"Google will survive for 15 more years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"88.38%",,21
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"21.64%",,22
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.94%",,35
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"39.69%",,35
"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"80.89%",,27
"...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"48.40%",,20
"...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.05%",,20
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"86.75%",,24
"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"83.14%",,22
"...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36.38%",,21
"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.21%",,19
"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"54.20%",,20
"United States will invade Australia and take over","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.00%",,21
"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"74.85%",,20
"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6.95%",,20
"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.05%",,21
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"72.43%",,23
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20""Clogged%20drainpipe""%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"64.34%",,50
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"64.80%",,40
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"67.55%",,22
"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"12.05%",,21
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.27%",,26
"Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"51.78%",,18
"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.32%",,22
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"64.28%",,18
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20""a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true"".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.27%",,26
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"35.00%",,23
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.80%",,25
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"83.95%",,21
"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"12.79%",,19
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.17%",,23
"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.89%",,19
"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"30.95%",,20
"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"21.62%",,21
"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"69.33%",,18
"aliens invade earth in 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.94%",,18
"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.39%",,18
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.72%",,18
"US presidents term limits abolished","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.24%",,17
"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.90%",,20
"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"42.89%",,18
"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"95.32%",,19
"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"77.71%",,17
"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"57.78%",,18
"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.13%",,16
"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"34.67%",,18
"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20""in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"19.11%",,19
"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"35.53%",,19
"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.12%",,17
"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.81%",,16
"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"43.47%",,19
"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.00%",,20
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"59.36%",,25
"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"76.55%",,20
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.48%",,25
"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"66.47%",,17
"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.44%",,16
"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"73.94%",,17
"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"78.12%",,17
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.90%",,29
"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.71%",,17
"C still widely in use in the 2020s","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"93.53%",,15
"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"92.69%",,16
"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"41.47%",,17
"Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.18%",,17
"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20""World%20War%20III""%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20""allies""%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"93.31%",,16
"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20""Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow"".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.86%",,14
"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"82.20%",,15
"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"5.94%",,17
"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.00%",,15
"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.47%",,15
"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.39%",,18
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.39%",,18
"By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"53.00%",,14
"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6.20%",,15
"Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.
","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally.
&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.19%",16
"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.82%",17
"By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"53.00%",14
"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"30.26%",19
"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.00%",15
"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.""%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.55%",20
"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""The%20Essential%20Workers""%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.27%",15
"ETI is AGI","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"84.61%",18
"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20""SETI%20Winter""%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"73.89%",19
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20""spaceship""%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"51.36%",14
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"44.46%",26
"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.33%",18
"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.84%",19
"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.92%",13
"Humanity still a thing in 2036","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"89.00%",13
"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.79%",14
"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.69%",16
"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"85.31%",16
"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20""How%20to%20create%20a%20mind"")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.75%",16
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"13.37%",19
"10 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.42%",36
"Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.08%",13
"By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.08%",13
"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.50%",16
"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"18.54%",13
"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.47%",15
"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20""Pilotless""%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"62.71%",14
"By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"44.15%",13
"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.69%",13
"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"5.33%",15
"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"38.31%",13
"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"27.64%",14
"Trump dies of COVID-19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6.63%",32
"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.62%",13
"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.75%",16
"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"32.06%",16
"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"63.00%",13
"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"43.11%",19
"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"15.93%",14
"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"70.00%",15
"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"86.83%",12
"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"63.33%",15
"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.71%",14
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20""train%20it%20away""?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"63.15%",26
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"49.24%",33
"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"69.69%",13
"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.58%",12
"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.""%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"66.54%",13
"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"78.92%",13
"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"37.08%",13
"We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24.33%",12
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"60.83%",12
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"51.07%",14
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"30.40%",15
"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.33%",15
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46.69%",13
"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.60%",15
"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"35.00%",12
"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.83%",12
"100 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.79%",29
"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.73%",15
"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"52.47%",15
"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.50%",14
"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20.25%",16
"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46.07%",14
"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"18.25%",12
"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.31%",13
"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.64%",14
"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.64%",14
"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.17%",12
"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"31.38%",13
"As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"67.79%",14
"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.21%",14
"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"43.08%",13
"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.91%",11
"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.57%",14
"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"65.93%",14
"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.29%",14
"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"68.67%",12
"Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"31.64%",11
"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.00%",11
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"23.38%",24
"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20""same""?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20""final%20being""?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.27%",11
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.88%",25
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.82%",22
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.00%",26
"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.20%",15
"GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"41.54%",13
"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.""%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"64.82%",11
"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones""%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"75.17%",12
"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"38.64%",11
"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"57.00%",13
"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.00%",14
"Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"5.42%",12
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.86%",14
"With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.92%",13
"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"45.31%",13
"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.08%",12
"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"16.33%",12
"Trump will run for president in 2024","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20.38%",13
"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.42%",12
"SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"13.67%",12
"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"45.69%",13
"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"93.25%",12
"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.18%",11
"Trump wins the 2020 election.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.54%",13
"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.79%",14
"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.09%",11
"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"21.27%",11
"50 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.65%",34
"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20""Grognor""%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"45.92%",13
"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.54%",13
"People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.09%",11
"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24.75%",12
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"77.83%",12
"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"23.67%",12
"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.00%",11
"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"44.08%",12
"'President Mike Pence'","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.06%",16
"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"52.69%",13
"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.00%",12
"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.77%",13
"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.""%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20.73%",11
"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.43%",14
"In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20.40%",10
"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"60.36%",11
"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"21.70%",10
"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.30%",10
"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"52.73%",11
"WWIII starts before 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.86%",14
"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.36%",11
"Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"48.00%",10
"By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"15.80%",10
"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"15.50%",12
"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.91%",11
"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"75.09%",11
"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"34.38%",16
"Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46.70%",10
"Airbnb to be acquired by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"34.64%",11
"Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20""very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.64%",11
"Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"27.79%",14
"“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.42%",12
"The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"78.90%",10
"Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"22.08%",12
"HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.09%",11
"The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6.09%",11
"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.46%",13
"A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"41.30%",10
"Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.10%",10
"“China will break apart by 2030”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24.60%",10
"At least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20""anarchist""%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36.82%",11
"homosexuality criminalized in the US","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.50%",10
"1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"41.08%",13
"In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.36%",14
"“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.46%",13
"Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.08%",13
"Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.30%",10
"Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.60%",10
"Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.20%",10
""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.""%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.46%",13
"We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20""do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation""?%20They%20answer%20""yes"".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.92%",13
"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"70.67%",12
"By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"13.08%",12
&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.19%",,16
"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.82%",,17
"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"30.26%",,19
"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.""%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.55%",,20
"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.79%",,14
"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"87.18%",,17
"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.00%",,18
"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.00%",,15
"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.73%",,15
"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.21%",,14
"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"27.64%",,14
"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.84%",,19
"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20""SETI%20Winter""%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"73.89%",,19
"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20""How%20to%20create%20a%20mind"")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.75%",,16
"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.33%",,18
"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"18.54%",,13
"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.62%",,13
"Trump dies of COVID-19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6.63%",,32
"ETI is AGI","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"84.61%",,18
"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.75%",,16
"10 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.42%",,36
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20""spaceship""%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"51.36%",,14
"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.92%",,13
"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"5.33%",,15
"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"32.06%",,16
"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"85.31%",,16
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"13.37%",,19
"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.50%",,16
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"44.46%",,26
"Humanity still a thing in 2036","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"89.00%",,13
"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.69%",,16
"By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.08%",,13
"By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"44.15%",,13
"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.69%",,13
"Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.08%",,13
"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.79%",,14
"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""The%20Essential%20Workers""%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.27%",,15
"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.47%",,15
"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20""Pilotless""%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"62.71%",,14
"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"38.31%",,13
"100 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.79%",,29
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20""train%20it%20away""?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"63.15%",,26
"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"18.25%",,12
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46.69%",,13
"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.64%",,14
"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46.07%",,14
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"30.40%",,15
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"51.07%",,14
"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.""%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"66.54%",,13
"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"63.00%",,13
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"49.24%",,33
"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"70.00%",,15
"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.64%",,14
"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"86.83%",,12
"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"63.33%",,15
"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.17%",,12
"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.33%",,15
"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"15.93%",,14
"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"78.92%",,13
"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.50%",,14
"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"52.47%",,15
"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"43.11%",,19
"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.71%",,14
"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.60%",,15
"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"35.00%",,12
"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.73%",,15
"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"37.08%",,13
"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"69.69%",,13
"We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24.33%",,12
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"60.83%",,12
"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.83%",,12
"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.58%",,12
"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20.25%",,16
"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.31%",,13
"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.77%",,13
"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.08%",,12
"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"38.64%",,11
"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"43.08%",,13
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.88%",,25
"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones""%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"75.17%",,12
"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.""%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20.73%",,11
"'President Mike Pence'","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"14.06%",,16
"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.00%",,12
"With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.92%",,13
"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.20%",,15
"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.""%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"64.82%",,11
"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20""Grognor""%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"45.92%",,13
"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.42%",,12
"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"44.08%",,12
"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"45.69%",,13
"Trump wins the 2020 election.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"47.54%",,13
"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.00%",,11
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.86%",,14
"As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"67.79%",,14
"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.29%",,14
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.00%",,26
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.82%",,22
"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"93.25%",,12
"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"23.67%",,12
"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.09%",,11
"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"52.69%",,13
"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"31.38%",,13
"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.00%",,11
"People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.09%",,11
"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"45.31%",,13
"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"21.27%",,11
"Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"5.42%",,12
"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20""same""?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20""final%20being""?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.27%",,11
"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.00%",,14
"50 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.65%",,34
"Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"31.64%",,11
"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"57.00%",,13
"GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"41.54%",,13
"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"3.54%",,13
"SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"13.67%",,12
"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"68.67%",,12
"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"65.93%",,14
"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.57%",,14
"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.21%",,14
"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.18%",,11
"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"16.33%",,12
"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"28.43%",,14
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"23.38%",,24
"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"40.91%",,11
"Trump will run for president in 2024","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20.38%",,13
"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24.75%",,12
"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.79%",,14
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"77.83%",,12
"Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20""very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.64%",,11
"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"52.73%",,11
"Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.
http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.
http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"19.80%",10
"More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.38%",13
"A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"12.09%",11
"By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"30.90%",10
"P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"44.17%",12
http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"19.80%",,10
"Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"29.08%",,13
"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"70.67%",,12
"More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.38%",,13
"We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20""do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation""?%20They%20answer%20""yes"".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.92%",,13
"A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"12.09%",,11
"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"15.50%",,12
"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"75.09%",,11
"Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.30%",,10
"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"17.30%",,10
"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"1.36%",,11
"EU to dissolve by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"39.45%",,11
"“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.46%",,13
"“China will break apart by 2030”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"24.60%",,10
"By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"16.00%",,10
"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.92%",,12
"Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"27.79%",,14
"Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"46.70%",,10
"Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"13.14%",,14
"Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.50%",,10
"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"34.38%",,16
""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.""%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"11.46%",,13
"“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.42%",,12
"In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"20.40%",,10
"By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"30.90%",,10
"Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"22.08%",,12
"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"60.36%",,11
"Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"4.20%",,10
"By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"13.08%",,12
"Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"26.10%",,10
"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"56.91%",,11
"WWIII starts before 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"8.86%",,14
"HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"7.09%",,11
"The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"6.09%",,11
"Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years.
By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20
By%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"77.10%",10
"EU to dissolve by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"39.45%",11
"Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"0.50%",10
"Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"13.14%",14
"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"10.92%",12
"By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"16.00%",10
By%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"77.10%",,10
"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"33.46%",,13
"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"21.70%",,10
"P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"44.17%",,12
"Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"55.60%",,10
"A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"41.30%",,10
"homosexuality criminalized in the US","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"2.50%",,10
"At least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20""anarchist""%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"36.82%",,11
"1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"41.08%",,13
"Airbnb to be acquired by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"34.64%",,11
"In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"9.36%",,14
"By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"15.80%",,10
"Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"48.00%",,10
"The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit",true,"78.90%",,10
1 Title URL Platform Binary question? Percentage Description # Forecasts
2 Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%2050%20prediction%20questions%20embedded%20in%20LessWrong%20posts%20and%20comments%20this%20month?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 56.39% 337
3 Will more than 50 people predict on this post? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more%20than%2050%20people%20predict%20on%20this%20post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 82.03% 230
4 Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 36.85% 158
5 Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20without%20additional%20intervention%20from%20the%20existing%20AI%20Alignment%20research%20community?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 52.70% 137
6 Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20arms%20race%20dynamic%20in%20the%20lead-up%20to%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 75.52% 113
7 The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20new%20English%20Strain%20is%20at%20least%2050%%20more%20infectious%20than%20the%20currently%20dominant%20American%20strain%20of%20Covid-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 63.37% 211
8 Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20single%20AGI%20or%20AGI%20project%20achieve%20a%20decisive%20strategic%20advantage?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 61.63% 115
9 How vivid is your visual imagination? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 50.68% 119
10 Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%20deep%20learning%20with%20small%20variations,%20without%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 33.50% 110
11 Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 42.70% 107
12 Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20we%20build%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 11.79% 100
13 How vivid is your sound imagination? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20sound%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 61.17% 106
14 Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20another%20AI%20Winter%20(a%20period%20commonly%20referred%20to%20as%20such)%20before%20we%20develop%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 28.63% 95
15 Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%201-3%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 43.12% 112
16 There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20an%20additional%20distinct%20large%20wave%20of%20Covid-19%20infections%20in%20the%20United%20States%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 58.18% 158
17 How vivid is your taste imagination? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20taste%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 25.73% 84
18 How vivid is your smell imagination? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20smell%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 25.41% 82
19 Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20need%20>%203%20breakthroughs%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning%20to%20get%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 25.38% 84
20 How frequently do you think in words? Do you have a type of Synaesthesia? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 78.13% 19.76% 86 87
21 Do you have a type of Synaesthesia? How frequently do you think in words? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 19.76% 78.13% 87 86
22 Do you have an internal monologue? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 82.28% 80
23 How good is your memory? How vivid is your touch imagination? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 52.65% 36.13% 78 79
24 How vivid is your touch imagination? How good is your memory? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 36.13% 52.65% 79 78
25 How much control do you have over your mind? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20much%20control%20do%20you%20have%20over%20your%20mind?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 45.59% 76
26 Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 42.76% 85
27 Trump will win a second term https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20win%20a%20second%20term&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 46.20% 74
28 Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 31.56% 66
29 Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20continue%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 24.51% 75
30 Will the post "Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong" get more than 80 karma by December 1st? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the%20post%20"Embedded%20Interactive%20Predictions%20on%20LessWrong"%20get%20more%20than%2080%20karma%20by%20December%201st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 89.52% 83
31 Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Having%20a%20button/prompt%20for%20Elicit%20on%20LW%20would%20increase%20usage%20by%20at%20least%205x&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 60.22% 41
32 By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025%20bitcoin%20will%20no%20longer%20be%20the%20highest%20traded%20cryptocurrency.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 55.49% 37
33 A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Singularity%20will%20not%20occur%20by%20the%20year%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 68.71% 42
34 Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 61.12% 42
35 Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202025,%20most%20of%20Russia%20will%20become%20part%20of%20the%20United%20States,%20or%20the%20reverse,%20or%20they%20will%20in%20some%20other%20manner%20become%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state,%20or%20part%20of%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 0.79% 34
36 The Pope will be assassinated. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Pope%20will%20be%20assassinated.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 3.03% 32
37 Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles? PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 47.38% 83.00% 47 40
38 Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 36.91% 34
39 PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020 Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 83.00% 47.38% 40 47
40 The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 "There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin" --Bill Walker, BBC https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin"%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 38.97% 2.91% 31 33
41 "There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin" --Bill Walker, BBC The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin"%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 2.91% 38.97% 33 31
42 No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 82.13% 8.81% 32 31
43 Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling? Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 47.00% 54.94% 34 47
44 Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01? Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 54.94% 47.00% 47 34
45 Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 8.81% 82.13% 31 32
46 No military draft in the United States before 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 90.27% 33
47 Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organised%20religions%20will%20no%20longer%20exist%20in%20any%20meaningful%20way%20and%20religion%20will%20no%20longer%20have%20any%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 8.68% 28
48 Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 40.24% 42
49 Trump wins Nobel California will secede from the United States before 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 10.55% 0.68% 38 34
50 California will secede from the United States before 2021 Trump wins Nobel https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 0.68% 10.55% 34 38
51 Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 0.23% 26
52 Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 1.88% 26
53 Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling? ...be an environmental disaster. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 46.84% 26.37% 32 27
54 ...be an environmental disaster. Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 26.37% 46.84% 27 32
55 Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality). https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 7.46% 58.56% 26 34
56 The Singularity will occur by 2050. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 35.12% 25
57 For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality). 50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 58.56% 24.39% 34 28
58 "I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases." https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 9.69% 26
59 50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 24.39% 7.46% 28 26
60 Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort. Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 62.27% 84.11% 26 27
61 PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible. Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 68.88% 62.27% 25 26
62 Will there be an "Inverse AlphaFold" by end of 2025? Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20"Inverse%20AlphaFold"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 33.91% 19.35% 33 23
63 Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030 PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 84.11% 68.88% 27 25
64 Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035. By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 19.35% 6.67% 23 24
65 By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI. Will there be an "Inverse AlphaFold" by end of 2025? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20"Inverse%20AlphaFold"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 6.67% 33.91% 24 33
66 Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus. The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 99.41% 37.46% 22 24
67 TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020 Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 58.15% 99.41% 39 22
68 Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies. TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 60.84% 58.15% 32 39
69 Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 20.48% 29
70 ...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 70.19% 60.84% 21 32
71 The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct? ...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 37.46% 70.19% 24 21
72 In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 26.36% 25
73 Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can. Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 27.83% 11.68% 35 22
74 Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 11.68% 15.33% 22 21
75 Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 34.13% 27.83% 47 35
76 Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 4.74% 23
77 Google will survive for 15 more years China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 88.38% 7.45% 21 22
78 Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black. Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 15.33% 34.13% 21 47
79 China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023. Google will survive for 15 more years https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 7.45% 88.38% 22 21
80 Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 21.64% 22
81 ...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land. Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 36.38% 56.94% 21 35
82 Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed. Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 83.14% 39.69% 22 35
83 The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025. ...all-things-considered, be good for the world. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 72.43% 80.89% 23 27
84 United States will invade Australia and take over ...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 10.00% 48.40% 21 20
85 ...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 17.05% 20
86 ...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco. No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 48.40% 86.75% 20 24
87 Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 2.21% 83.14% 19 22
88 No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020. ...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 74.85% 36.38% 20 21
89 Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022 Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 6.95% 2.21% 20 19
90 Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment? Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 56.94% 54.20% 35 20
91 ...all-things-considered, be good for the world. United States will invade Australia and take over https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 80.89% 10.00% 27 21
92 Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe? No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 39.69% 74.85% 35 20
93 No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040. Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 86.75% 6.95% 24 20
94 90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 47.05% 21
95 Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 54.20% 72.43% 20 23
96 What percentage of people experience a "Clogged drainpipe" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20"Clogged%20drainpipe"%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 64.34% 50
97 “No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.” Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 40.27% 64.80% 26 40
98 Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican. The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 51.78% 67.55% 18 22
99 Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence We will make First Contact before we will have AGI. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 3.32% 12.05% 22 21
100 We will make First Contact before we will have AGI. “No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 12.05% 40.27% 21 26
101 Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors? Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 64.80% 51.78% 40 18
102 The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 67.55% 3.32% 22
103 There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 64.28% 18
104 '2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke The strategy-stealing assumption is "a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run). https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20"a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 1.80% 33.27% 25 26
105 A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 “One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 30.95% 35.00% 20 23
106 The strategy-stealing assumption is "a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run). '2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20"a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 33.27% 1.80% 26 25
107 Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030 The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 26.89% 83.95% 19 21
108 The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020. Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 83.95% 12.79% 21 19
109 My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028 Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 8.39% 47.17% 18 23
110 It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 1.72% 26.89% 18 19
111 “One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.” A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 35.00% 30.95% 23 20
112 Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen. A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 47.17% 21.62% 23 21
113 Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 69.33% 18
114 A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020. aliens invade earth in 2023 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 21.62% 0.94% 21 18
115 aliens invade earth in 2023 My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 0.94% 8.39% 18
116 Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020. It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 12.79% 1.72% 19 18
117 Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable "in ten thousand years, or so" US presidents term limits abolished https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 19.11% 2.24% 19 17
118 By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications. A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 34.67% 4.90% 18 20
119 Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009. Man will travel to Mars by 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 35.53% 42.89% 19 18
120 An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100. Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 57.78% 95.32% 18 19
121 If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 77.71% 17
122 Man will travel to Mars by 2030. An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 42.89% 57.78% 18
123 Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 95.32% 4.13% 19 16
124 An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years. By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 8.12% 34.67% 17 18
125 Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX) Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable "in ten thousand years, or so" https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 4.13% 19.11% 16 19
126 US presidents term limits abolished Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 2.24% 35.53% 17 19
127 A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment. An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 4.90% 8.12% 20 17
128 A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020 Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 43.47% 11.81% 19 16
129 Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual. A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 76.55% 43.47% 20 19
130 Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time. The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans). https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 92.69% 28.00% 16 20
131 If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it? Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 73.94% 59.36% 17 25
132 If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans? Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 66.47% 76.55% 17 20
133 If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity? Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 29.44% 14.48% 16 25
134 Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31 If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 14.48% 66.47% 25 17
135 Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs? If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 59.36% 29.44% 25 16
136 The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards. If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 78.12% 73.94% 17
137 Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 55.18% 78.12% 17
138 USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China. Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 41.47% 56.90% 17 29
139 Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture? Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 56.90% 3.71% 29 17
140 Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026 C still widely in use in the 2020s https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 3.71% 93.53% 17 15
141 The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans). Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 28.00% 92.69% 20 16
142 There will NOT be a "World War III" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's "allies" and NATO and/or western europe) USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20"World%20War%20III"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20"allies"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 93.31% 41.47% 16 17
143 C still widely in use in the 2020s Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 93.53% 55.18% 15 17
144 Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021. There will NOT be a "World War III" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's "allies" and NATO and/or western europe) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20"World%20War%20III"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20"allies"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 11.81% 93.31% 16
145 In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. The message begins with "Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow". Should we execute it? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 9.47% 7.86% 15 14
146 A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin. I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 8.79% 82.20% 14 15
147 The message begins with "Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow". Should we execute it? North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 7.86% 5.94% 14 17
148 North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020 The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 5.94% 17.00% 17 15
149 By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 28.21% 9.47% 14 15
150 Will we understand the content of a message from outer space? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 47.39% 18
151 The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican. If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 17.00% 17.39% 15 18
152 I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years. By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 82.20% 53.00% 15 14
153 If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form? "by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system" https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 17.39% 6.20% 18 15
"by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system" https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 6.20% 15
The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 11.73% 15
Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 87.18% 17
Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 7.00% 18
154 Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 11.19% 16
155 The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 9.82% 17
156 By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone. The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 53.00% 30.26% 14 19
157 The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025. "Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs." --James Miller https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs."%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 30.26% 9.55% 19 20
158 Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license. A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 14.00% 8.79% 15 14
159 "Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs." --James Miller Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs."%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 9.55% 87.18% 20 17
160 "The Essential Workers" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020. Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="The%20Essential%20Workers"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 40.27% 7.00% 15 18
161 ETI is AGI Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 84.61% 14.00% 18 15
162 There be a "SETI Winter" before First Contact. The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20"SETI%20Winter"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 73.89% 11.73% 19 15
163 If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI "spaceship" be larger than 1m in size? By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20"spaceship"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 51.36% 28.21% 14
164 The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals. Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 44.46% 27.64% 26 14
165 Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles) We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 29.33% 40.84% 18 19
166 We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact. There be a "SETI Winter" before First Contact. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20"SETI%20Winter"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 40.84% 73.89% 19
167 All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house. Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, "How to create a mind") https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 4.92% 26.75% 13 16
168 Humanity still a thing in 2036 Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 89.00% 29.33% 13 18
169 Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050 The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 29.79% 18.54% 14 13
170 Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years. The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 10.69% 14.62% 16 13
171 Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years. Trump dies of COVID-19 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 85.31% 6.63% 16 32
172 Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, "How to create a mind") ETI is AGI https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 26.75% 84.61% 16 18
173 Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060 Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 13.37% 33.75% 19 16
174 10 million https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 8.42% 36
175 Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070. If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI "spaceship" be larger than 1m in size? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20"spaceship"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 4.08% 51.36% 13 14
176 By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 11.08% 4.92% 13
177 USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021 North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 4.50% 5.33% 16 15
178 The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033. Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 18.54% 32.06% 13 16
179 Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025. Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 9.47% 85.31% 15 16
180 Truly "Pilotless" air travel will be the standard in 2050. Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20"Pilotless"%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 62.71% 13.37% 14 19
181 By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 44.15% 4.50% 13 16
182 In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 14.69% 44.46% 13 26
183 North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022 Humanity still a thing in 2036 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 5.33% 89.00% 15 13
184 By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S. Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 38.31% 10.69% 13 16
185 Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 27.64% 11.08% 14 13
186 Trump dies of COVID-19 By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 6.63% 44.15% 32 13
187 The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026. In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 14.62% 14.69% 13
188 Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 33.75% 4.08% 16 13
189 Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 32.06% 29.79% 16 14
190 There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020. "The Essential Workers" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="The%20Essential%20Workers"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 63.00% 40.27% 13 15
191 If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner? Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 43.11% 9.47% 19 15
192 1 year continuous human habitation of the moon Truly "Pilotless" air travel will be the standard in 2050. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20"Pilotless"%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 15.93% 62.71% 14
193 If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up? By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 70.00% 38.31% 15 13
194 Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP. 100 million https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 86.83% 0.79% 12 29
195 Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper. If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to "train it away"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20"train%20it%20away"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 63.33% 63.15% 15 26
196 Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 7.71% 18.25% 14 12
197 If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to "train it away"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques) The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20"train%20it%20away"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 63.15% 46.69% 26 13
198 Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe? the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 49.24% 7.64% 33 14
199 Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 69.69% 46.07% 13 14
200 Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030 The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 33.58% 30.40% 12 15
201 "Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150." -lukeprog The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150."%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 66.54% 51.07% 13 14
202 At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site "Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150." -lukeprog https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150."%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 78.92% 66.54% 13
203 Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 37.08% 63.00% 13
204 We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 24.33% 49.24% 12 33
205 No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030. If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 60.83% 70.00% 12 15
206 The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035 Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 51.07% 4.64% 14
207 The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025 Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 30.40% 86.83% 15 12
208 Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes. Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 14.33% 63.33% 15
209 The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship. 'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 46.69% 14.17% 13 12
210 Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 0.60% 14.33% 15
211 “By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.” 1 year continuous human habitation of the moon https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 35.00% 15.93% 12 14
212 “There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.” At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 3.83% 78.92% 12 13
213 100 million The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 0.79% 17.50% 29 14
214 By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 2.73% 52.47% 15
215 Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information? If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 52.47% 43.11% 15 19
216 The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030. Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 17.50% 7.71% 14
217 North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030 Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 20.25% 0.60% 16 15
218 In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older. “By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 46.07% 35.00% 14 12
219 Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored. By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 18.25% 2.73% 12 15
220 Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050. Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 1.31% 37.08% 13
221 Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020 Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 4.64% 69.69% 14 13
222 the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 7.64% 24.33% 14 12
223 'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 14.17% 60.83% 12
224 By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. “There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 31.38% 3.83% 13 12
225 As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against. Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 67.79% 33.58% 14 12
226 "At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150." North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 56.21% 20.25% 14 16
227 China will land a man on Mars by 2050. Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 43.08% 1.31% 13
228 “In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.” some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 40.91% 3.77% 11 13
229 They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040 At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 55.57% 29.08% 14 12
230 Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 65.93% 38.64% 14 11
231 Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence. China will land a man on Mars by 2050. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 10.29% 43.08% 14 13
232 Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 68.67% 28.88% 12 25
233 Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt "In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones" --Marc Andreessen https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 31.64% 75.17% 11 12
234 “I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson "there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years." - Scott Adams https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years."%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 8.00% 20.73% 11
235 Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? 'President Mike Pence' https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 23.38% 14.06% 24 16
236 Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the "same"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some "final being"? Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20"same"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20"final%20being"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 26.27% 9.00% 11 12
237 The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable) With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 28.88% 8.92% 25 13
238 The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 40.82% 33.20% 22 15
239 The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance ) "within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million." --Dennis Mangan https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million."%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 55.00% 64.82% 26 11
240 Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact? The LW user account "Grognor" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20"Grognor"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 33.20% 45.92% 15 13
241 GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_ The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 41.54% 2.42% 13 12
242 "within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million." --Dennis Mangan Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million."%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 64.82% 44.08% 11 12
243 "In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones" --Marc Andreessen Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 75.17% 45.69% 12 13
244 A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041. Trump wins the 2020 election. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 38.64% 47.54% 11 13
245 Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023 “I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 57.00% 8.00% 13 11
246 Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025. The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 10.00% 56.86% 14
247 Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 5.42% 67.79% 12 14
248 The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045 Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 56.86% 10.29% 14
249 With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance ) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 8.92% 55.00% 13 26
250 No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 45.31% 40.82% 13 22
251 At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030 By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 29.08% 93.25% 12
252 "By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation." At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 16.33% 23.67% 12
253 Trump will run for president in 2024 Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 20.38% 28.09% 13 11
254 The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life. We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 2.42% 52.69% 12 13
255 SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021. By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 13.67% 31.38% 12 13
256 Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 45.69% 1.00% 13 11
257 By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 93.25% 33.09% 12 11
258 Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 10.18% 45.31% 11 13
259 Trump wins the 2020 election. Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 47.54% 21.27% 13 11
260 Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years. Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 10.79% 5.42% 14 12
261 Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020 Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the "same"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some "final being"? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20"same"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20"final%20being"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 28.09% 26.27% 11
262 Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021 Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 21.27% 10.00% 11 14
263 50 million https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 1.65% 34
264 The LW user account "Grognor" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years. Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20"Grognor"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 45.92% 31.64% 13 11
265 Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022 Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 3.54% 57.00% 13
266 People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts. GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_ https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 33.09% 41.54% 11 13
267 Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA. Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 24.75% 3.54% 12 13
268 No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025. SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 77.83% 13.67% 12
269 At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 23.67% 68.67% 12
270 In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia. Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 1.00% 65.93% 11 14
271 Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030 They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 44.08% 55.57% 12 14
272 'President Mike Pence' "At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150." https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 14.06% 56.21% 16 14
273 We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040 Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 52.69% 10.18% 13 11
274 Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020 "By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation." https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 9.00% 16.33% 12
275 some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 3.77% 28.43% 13 14
276 "there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years." - Scott Adams Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years."%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 20.73% 23.38% 11 24
277 The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045. “In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 28.43% 40.91% 14 11
278 In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB). Trump will run for president in 2024 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 20.40% 20.38% 10 13
279 By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000 Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 60.36% 24.75% 11 12
280 Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 21.70% 10.79% 10 14
281 Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 17.30% 77.83% 10 12
282 No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032 Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as "very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?" https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 52.73% 29.64% 11
283 WWIII starts before 2030. No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 8.86% 52.73% 14 11
284 Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020 Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/ https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 1.36% 19.80% 11 10
285 Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018. Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 48.00% 29.08% 10 13
By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 15.80% 10
Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 15.50% 12
HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 56.91% 11
By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 75.09% 11
Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 34.38% 16
Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 46.70% 10
Airbnb to be acquired by 2025 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 34.64% 11
Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as "very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?" https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 29.64% 11
Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 27.79% 14
“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 7.42% 12
The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 78.90% 10
Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 22.08% 12
HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 7.09% 11
The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII). https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 6.09% 11
By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 33.46% 13
A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 41.30% 10
Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 26.10% 10
“China will break apart by 2030” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 24.60% 10
At least one self-described "anarchist" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20"anarchist"%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 36.82% 11
homosexuality criminalized in the US https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 2.50% 10
1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 41.08% 13
In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 9.36% 14
“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 11.46% 13
Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 29.08% 13
Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 11.30% 10
Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 55.60% 10
Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 4.20% 10
". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form." --Dan King https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form."%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 11.46% 13
We ask ETI "do we live in a simulation"? They answer "yes". https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation"?%20They%20answer%20"yes".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 17.92% 13
SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 70.67% 12
By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 13.08% 12
Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/ https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 19.80% 10
More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 26.38% 13
286 A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization. SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 12.09% 70.67% 11 12
287 By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms. More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 30.90% 26.38% 10 13
288 P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken We ask ETI "do we live in a simulation"? They answer "yes". https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation"?%20They%20answer%20"yes".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 44.17% 17.92% 12 13
289 Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry. A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20 By%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 77.10% 12.09% 10 11
290 EU to dissolve by 2040. Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 39.45% 15.50% 11 12
291 Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022 By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 0.50% 75.09% 10 11
292 Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 13.14% 11.30% 14 10
293 Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 10.92% 17.30% 12 10
294 By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 16.00% 1.36% 10 11
295 EU to dissolve by 2040. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 39.45% 11
296 “The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 11.46% 13
297 “China will break apart by 2030” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 24.60% 10
298 By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 16.00% 10
299 Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 10.92% 12
300 Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 27.79% 14
301 Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 46.70% 10
302 Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 13.14% 14
303 Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 0.50% 10
304 Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 34.38% 16
305 ". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form." --Dan King https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form."%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 11.46% 13
306 “By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.” https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 7.42% 12
307 In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB). https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 20.40% 10
308 By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 30.90% 10
309 Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 22.08% 12
310 By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 60.36% 11
311 Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 4.20% 10
312 By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 13.08% 12
313 Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 26.10% 10
314 HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 56.91% 11
315 WWIII starts before 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 8.86% 14
316 HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 7.09% 11
317 The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII). https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 6.09% 11
318 Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20 By%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 77.10% 10
319 By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 33.46% 13
320 Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 21.70% 10
321 P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 44.17% 12
322 Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 55.60% 10
323 A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 41.30% 10
324 homosexuality criminalized in the US https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 2.50% 10
325 At least one self-described "anarchist" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20"anarchist"%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 36.82% 11
326 1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 41.08% 13
327 Airbnb to be acquired by 2025 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 34.64% 11
328 In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 9.36% 14
329 By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 15.80% 10
330 Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 48.00% 10
331 The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01 https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0 Elicit true 78.90% 10
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"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts"
"When will Joe Biden cease to be president of the United States?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
"Before 1 January 2023, will legislation raising the top marginal tax rate for long-term capital gains in the U.S. to higher than 20% become law?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
"Before 1 January 2023, will legislation raising the top corporate tax rate in the U.S. to higher than 21% become law?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
"Before 1 January 2023, will legislation creating a ""public option"" health insurance plan administered by the federal government become law?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
"Before 1 January 2023, will the United States ratify the TPP and/or the CPTPP?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
"What will be the U.S. real GDP for the second quarter of 2021 relative to the U.S. real GDP for the second quarter of 2019?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
"When will Germany report that 75 million cumulative vaccine doses for COVID-19 have been given?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
"When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
"In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
"What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
"What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
"As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who 'worked from home exclusively'?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment",false,"none",
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","Description","# Forecasts"
"When will Joe Biden cease to be president of the United States?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none","Opened 22 January 2021
The next inauguration for president of the United States is scheduled for [20 January] (https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/amendments-11-27#xx) 2025. A transfer of presidential powers and duties to an acting president under Section 3 or Section 4 of the [25th Amendment] (https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/amendments-11-27#xxv) for more than 30 consecutive calendar days would count.
When he took the oath of office, Joe Biden became the oldest newly inaugurated US president in history and also the oldest sitting president ever. Does this imply increased odds he will cease to be president before the end of his term? Good Judgment's Superforecasters assign 7% probability to this outcome. Actuarial tables suggest a US male at age 78 will live another nine years on average. President Biden has no known underlying health conditions. He also has arguably the best health care in the world, and his father died at 87.
But, as one Superforecaster pointed out, much can happen in four years. Ceasing on 20 January 2025, when Biden's first term expires, currently has the highest probability (49%). Stepping down or losing a re-election bid could be potential reasons. As to the latter, the base rate, since 1860, for incumbent presidents winning re-election is about 70%. However, Biden would be 82 years old in 2025 and that might affect both his chances and his decision to run.
Superforecasters also collectively assign 44% probability that Biden will not cease to be president of the United States before 21 January 2025.
",
"Before 1 January 2023, will legislation raising the top marginal tax rate for long-term capital gains in the U.S. to higher than 20% become law?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none","Opened 20 November 2020
President-elect Joe Biden has signaled his intention to [change] (https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-joe-bidens-tax-increase-wish-list-could-affect-you-11605263403) current [tax] (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-biden-capital-gains-tax/fact-check-biden-willonlytax-capital-gainsat-40for-those-earning-over-1-million-annually-idUSKBN26Z2CA) rates, however his ability to do so may turn on [control] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/14/us/politics/georgia-runoffs-senate-control.html) of the [Senate] (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/06/2020-georgia-runoff-election-senate-loeffler-ossoff/6192322002/) . As of 20 November 2020, the top tax rate for long-term capital gains is [20%] (https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/101515/comparing-longterm-vs-shortterm-capital-gain-tax-rates.asp) . [Exceptions] (https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc409) where certain capital gains are taxed at rates greater than the top tax rate would not count. The date the raise would take effect would be immaterial. If relevant legislation does not become law, the question will close No on the appropriate party control bin as of the closing date.
20 January 2021 - Good Judgment's professional Superforecasters consider, as the outside view, historical levels of the top marginal tax rate in the US and the measure's potential political divisiveness. The inside view includes the size of the initial Covid stimulus plan, and the second bill expected in February, as well as the role of Senators Bernie Sanders and Ron Wyden in President Biden's tax and spending agenda.
",
"Before 1 January 2023, will legislation raising the top corporate tax rate in the U.S. to higher than 21% become law?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none","Opened 20 November 2020
President-elect Joe Biden has signaled his [intention] (https://www.investopedia.com/explaining-biden-s-tax-plan-5080766) to change current tax rates, however his ability to do so may turn on [control] (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/06/2020-georgia-runoff-election-senate-loeffler-ossoff/6192322002/) of the [Senate] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/14/us/politics/georgia-runoffs-senate-control.html) . As of 20 November 2020, the top corporate tax rate is [21%] (https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/corporate-top-tax-rate-and-bracket) . The date the raise would take effect would be immaterial. A surtax on specific subsets of corporations (e.g., ""Big Tech"" firms) would not count. If relevant legislation does not become law, the question will close No on the appropriate party control bin as of the closing date.
19 January 2021 - Professional Superforecasters see an increased probability (63% on aggregate) that Democrat-controlled Senate may increase top corporate tax rate to higher than 21%. Several Superforecasters point out corporate tax rates are currently at a historic low. On the other hand, this tax represents only a small portion of federal revenue and the higher rate may encourage more offshoring by large corporations.
",
"Before 1 January 2023, will legislation creating a ""public option"" health insurance plan administered by the federal government become law?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none","Opened 20 November 2020
President-elect Joe Biden pledged to create a "" [public] (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/09/932071991/what-bidens-election-means-for-u-s-health-care-and-public-health) [option] (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/07/joe-biden-policies-health-care-433626) "" for the U.S. health care system, however his ability to do so may turn on control of the [Senate] (https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-donald-trump-virus-outbreak-senate-elections-30e139b2435439fc8497304cdca600dd) . A ""public option"" would be a federally-administered insurance plan open to the public. The date a ""public option"" would be available would be immaterial. If relevant legislation does not become law, the question will close No on the appropriate party control bin as of the closing date.
19 January 2021 - In pondering the likelihood of a ""public option"" health insurance plan in the US before 2023, Good Judgment's professional Superforecasters examine such issues as the incoming administration's priority list, filibuster, and the possible budget reconciliation process. Several Superforecasters assign greater probability that the Biden administration will pursue other, less politically challenging options.
",
"Before 1 January 2023, will the United States ratify the TPP and/or the CPTPP?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none","Opened 20 November 2020
Control of the U.S. Senate will impact the next administration's policy options, including the ratification of [global] (https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/11/16/business/economy-business/japan-rcep-joe-biden-us/) [trade] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/04/biden-would-want-the-us-to-rejoin-tpp-says-harvard-scholar.html) [agreements] (https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R43491.pdf) , in this case ratification requiring a simple majority in both the Senate and the House. President Trump withdrew the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement ( [TPP] (https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp) ) [prior] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-tpp-mcconnell/obamas-tpp-deal-wont-get-senate-vote-this-year-mcconnell-idUSKCN1102CM) to ratification, and remaining parties went forward without the US and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership ( [CPTPP] (https://www.international.gc.ca/trade-commerce/trade-agreements-accords-commerciaux/agr-acc/cptpp-ptpgp/index.aspx?lang=eng) ). Ratification of a revised trade deal which includes the same members as TPP/CPTPP (Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam) would count. If no relevant trade deal is ratified, the question will close No on the appropriate party control bin as of the closing date.
19 January 2021 - With almost two years remaining in the timeframe of the question, Good Judgment's professional Superforecasters currently see a low (2%) probability on aggregate that the US will ratify the TPP and/or CPTPP. It doesn't appear as one of the Biden administration's priorities, but the effect of China's actions will be something to watch.
",
"What will be the U.S. real GDP for the second quarter of 2021 relative to the U.S. real GDP for the second quarter of 2019?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none","Opened 1 May 2020
Speculations are wide and numerous about how much the Covid [outbreak] (https://www.morningstar.com/articles/976107/coronavirus-update-long-term-economic-impact-forecast-to-be-less-than-2008-recession) will [impact] (https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56335) U.S. real [GDP] (https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-hit-to-us-economy-gdp-jobs-only-just-starting-2020-4) in the long term. The outcome will be determined using data for both Q2 2019 and Q2 2021 from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data ( [FRED] (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1) ) database upon the release of BEA's advance estimate for Q2 2021. Historical data are also available on [BEA] (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey) 's website (select ""view data in XLS or other formats, and see Table 1.1.6 in the Section 1 file). The real GDP reported for Q2 2019 as of launch was $19,021.860 billion (subject to future revisions).
27 January 2021 - Vaccine rollout, however slow, and the expected additional stimulus bill are good news for the economic outlook in the United States. The second quarter of 2021 may not yet be the time when their full benefits are felt, but Good Judgment's Superforecasters predict the country should be well on the way to a modest economic growth by then. Some segments of the society, especially white-collar workers, did not experience the economic fallout from the pandemic as acutely as their blue-collar counterparts did, and these are the segments that tend to have most impact on the economy through consumer spending. Companies are expected to increase economic activity in anticipation of recovery. Superforecasters are assigning the highest probability (68%) to the second-quarter GDP for 2021 being lower by 0% to 5% relative to the second quarter of 2019, and 29% probability to it being higher. There is now zero probability on aggregate that Q2 2021 GDP will be lower by more than 10% relative to the corresponding figure for 2019.
",
"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none","Opened 15 December 2020
This question was commissioned by [Open Philanthropy] (https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic) .
Dozens of [companies] (https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines) are trying to [develop] (https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine) a [viable] (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html) vaccine for COVID-19. The [FDA] (https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-key-action-fight-against-covid-19-issuing-emergency-use-authorization-first-covid-19) has authorized [Pfizer] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/12/how-fedex-ups-plan-to-distribute-fda-approved-covid-vaccine-when-will-you-get-the-coronavirus-vaccine.html) 's COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found [here] (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101) and [here] (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization) . "" [Compassionate use] (https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access) "" and "" [emergency use] (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization) "" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately [169.1] (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm) million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question).
11 January 2021 - Superforecasters currently assign 77% probability that the US will see distribution of enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100mn people between 1 April and 31 May 2021 (Bin C). Bin B ""is aspirational at best,"" according to one Superforecaster. Change in the recommended dosage or the advent of J&amp;J and AstraZeneca vaccines, which do not require the same cold storage as the Pfizer vaccine, could propel distribution toward Bin B timeline (""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021""); however, Superforecasters assign this outcome about 10% probability. On the other hand, slippage along the logistics chain could lead to a Bin D resolution (""Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021""), with 11% probability.
",
"When will Germany report that 75 million cumulative vaccine doses for COVID-19 have been given?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none","Opened 15 January 2021
The Pfizer vaccine was developed with German partner BioNTech, but the rollout in Germany has been [criticized] (https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-vaccine-german-health-minister-jens-spahn-under-fire/a-56144390) for being [slow] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-germany/scarce-doses-and-empty-vaccination-centres-germanys-vaccine-rollout-headache-idUSKBN29F0BP) . The outcome will be determined using data published by the German government's [Robert Koch Institut] (https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Impfquoten-Tab.html) [in German]. Click on the first link under ""Daten"" at the bottom of the page to download an xlsx file. In the xlsx file that opens (currently named ""Impfquotenmonitoring.xlsx""), see the ""Gesamt_bis_einschl_[date]"" (Total up to and including [date]) sheet. Refer to column ""Gesamtzahl bisher verabreichter Impfstoffdosen"" (Total number of vaccine doses given to date) in the row ""Gesamt"" (Total). The question will resolve on the date indicated in the xlsx file. Whether a particular vaccine's regimen requires one or more doses is immaterial.
22 January 2021 - This question opened on 15 January. To gauge initial estimates, professional Superforecasters are looking at the evolving vaccination rate, breakdown by population groups, and statements by Germany's health officials. Unless the supply and speed of inoculations are improved significantly, Superforecasters are seeing low probability this would resolve before Q3.
",
"When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?","https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/","Good Judgment",false,"none","Opened 7 December 2020
The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is [pushing] (https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/08/944125280/u-k-begins-nationwide-coronavirus-immunization-largest-in-nations-history) to [execute] (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55227325) its [plan] (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-protocol-for-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-bnt162b2-pfizerbiontech) . The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the [UK] (https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus) [government] (https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1339167258866814976) . For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people.
6 January 2020 - Superforecasters currently see the highest (50%) probability that 35 million people in the UK will have been vaccinated between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021 (Bin C). Potential issues with logistics, up to 25% of population reportedly [skeptical] (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-conspiraci-idUSKBN28H0FI) of the vaccine, and the spread of Covid-19 mutations, on the one hand, and the positive impact of approving additional vaccines on the other, have been pointed out among the factors that will affect the resolution of this question. Probability of Bin E (""Not before 1 September 2021"") is deemed very low because of one-shot resolution criteria and a fairly limited bar of 52.5% of population vaccinated paired with AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine approval.
",
"In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment",false,"none","Opened 9 October 2020
In its 2020 report, The [Conference] (https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/boardpractices) [Board] (https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/assets/Corporate%20Board%20Practices%202020%20Edition.pdf) reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&amp;P 500 companies explicitly disclosed [board] (https://www.economist.com/business/2019/11/07/how-to-make-your-firm-more-diverse-and-inclusive) members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices [report] (https://www.conference-board.org/us/) .
04 January 2021 - Bin B (""Between 23% and 27%, inclusive"") remains a clear leader among the options since the question launched in October. A new NASDAQ rule for disclosing board composition by gender and race is a sign of a trend toward increased diversity expectations; however, the way things stand at present, the shift may not be rapid enough to go beyond 27% in 2021.
",
"What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment",false,"none","Opened 9 October 2020
The International Monetary Fund ( [IMF] (https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020) ) and [others] (https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/09/16/is-the-world-economy-recovering) are projecting a significant [contraction] (https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/) in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF [website] (https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending) , choose the appropriate ""World Economic Outlook Database""; then choose ""Entire Dataset""; then download the ""By Country Groups"" file in the ""Tab Delimited Values"" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as ""Gross domestic product, current prices"" and Units as ""Purchasing power parity; international dollars."" Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the [April 2020] (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/WEOApr2020alla.xls) report.
04 January 2021 - Bin D (""Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive"") remains the Superforecasters' top choice for the resolution of this question. Positive news on vaccine roll-out and Asia's economic recovery appeared to solidify this position.
",
"What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment",false,"none","Opened 9 October 2020
Interest in [sustainable] (https://www.morningstar.com/articles/994219/sustainable-funds-continue-to-rake-in-assets-during-the-second-quarter) [sector] (https://www.morningstar.com/articles/984776/theres-ample-room-for-sustainable-investing-to-grow-in-the-us) [investment] (https://www.economist.com/business/2020/10/03/the-proliferation-of-sustainability-accounting-standards-comes-with-costs) [has] (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-25/trump-administration-targets-esg-funds-with-proposed-401-k-rule) been high in Europe and is increasing in the U.S.; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using [data] (https://www.morningstar.com/lp/global-esg-flows) from [Morningstar] (https://www.morningstar.com/articles/961765/sustainable-fund-flows-in-2019-smash-previous-records) for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. for 2020 and 2021.
04 January 2021 - Of the three options, Bin B (""Higher by between 0% and 100%"") remains the most likely one. However, Bin C (""Higher by more than 100%"") saw a slight increase in the past week. Superforecasters are noting the success of ESG funds in the US in 2020 and potential ESG-friendly developments a Biden administration is likely to bring.
",
"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment",false,"none","Opened 9 October 2020
Dozens of companies are trying to [develop] (https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines) a [viable] (https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine) [vaccine] (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html) for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived [can] (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101) be [ found] (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization) [here] (https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access) . ""Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also [count] (https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access) . Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the [2018-2019] (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm) flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question).
8 January 2021 - A bottleneck in vaccinations has been curbing distribution numbers. Superforecasters continue to debate whether this question will resolve in Q2 or Q3 of 2021. Their commentary highlights the view that once early errors in distribution are resolved and more vaccines become approved and available, distribution pace would pick up. But would it slip just beyond Q2?
",
"As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who &quot;worked from home exclusively&quot;?","https://goodjudgment.io/economist/","Good Judgment",false,"none","Opened 9 October 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many [workers] (https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/09/12/covid-19-has-forced-a-radical-shift-in-working-habits) to work from [home] (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487) , and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the [ONS] (https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/1october2020#social-impacts-of-the-coronavirus-on-great-britain) reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021.
04 January 2021 - Ever since this question opened, Bin B (""More than 10% but less than 20%"") has been a clear leader and continues to gain ground since the end of October. Although certain advantages to working from home (WFH) are noted, from savings in company budgets to reduced emissions from commute, the percentage of jobs that lend themselves exclusively to remote work is relatively low and municipalities need tax revenue from downtown business where people spending on lunch hours, breaks, and after-work get-togethers.
",
1 Title URL Platform Binary question? Percentage Description # Forecasts
2 When will Joe Biden cease to be president of the United States? https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment false none Opened 22 January 2021 The next inauguration for president of the United States is scheduled for [20 January] (https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/amendments-11-27#xx) 2025. A transfer of presidential powers and duties to an acting president under Section 3 or Section 4 of the [25th Amendment] (https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/amendments-11-27#xxv) for more than 30 consecutive calendar days would count. When he took the oath of office, Joe Biden became the oldest newly inaugurated US president in history and also the oldest sitting president ever. Does this imply increased odds he will cease to be president before the end of his term? Good Judgment's Superforecasters assign 7% probability to this outcome. Actuarial tables suggest a US male at age 78 will live another nine years on average. President Biden has no known underlying health conditions. He also has arguably the best health care in the world, and his father died at 87. But, as one Superforecaster pointed out, much can happen in four years. Ceasing on 20 January 2025, when Biden's first term expires, currently has the highest probability (49%). Stepping down or losing a re-election bid could be potential reasons. As to the latter, the base rate, since 1860, for incumbent presidents winning re-election is about 70%. However, Biden would be 82 years old in 2025 and that might affect both his chances and his decision to run. Superforecasters also collectively assign 44% probability that Biden will not cease to be president of the United States before 21 January 2025.
3 Before 1 January 2023, will legislation raising the top marginal tax rate for long-term capital gains in the U.S. to higher than 20% become law? https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment false none Opened 20 November 2020 President-elect Joe Biden has signaled his intention to [change] (https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-joe-bidens-tax-increase-wish-list-could-affect-you-11605263403) current [tax] (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-biden-capital-gains-tax/fact-check-biden-willonlytax-capital-gainsat-40for-those-earning-over-1-million-annually-idUSKBN26Z2CA) rates, however his ability to do so may turn on [control] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/14/us/politics/georgia-runoffs-senate-control.html) of the [Senate] (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/06/2020-georgia-runoff-election-senate-loeffler-ossoff/6192322002/) . As of 20 November 2020, the top tax rate for long-term capital gains is [20%] (https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/101515/comparing-longterm-vs-shortterm-capital-gain-tax-rates.asp) . [Exceptions] (https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc409) where certain capital gains are taxed at rates greater than the top tax rate would not count. The date the raise would take effect would be immaterial. If relevant legislation does not become law, the question will close No on the appropriate party control bin as of the closing date. 20 January 2021 - Good Judgment's professional Superforecasters consider, as the outside view, historical levels of the top marginal tax rate in the US and the measure's potential political divisiveness. The inside view includes the size of the initial Covid stimulus plan, and the second bill expected in February, as well as the role of Senators Bernie Sanders and Ron Wyden in President Biden's tax and spending agenda.
4 Before 1 January 2023, will legislation raising the top corporate tax rate in the U.S. to higher than 21% become law? https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment false none Opened 20 November 2020 President-elect Joe Biden has signaled his [intention] (https://www.investopedia.com/explaining-biden-s-tax-plan-5080766) to change current tax rates, however his ability to do so may turn on [control] (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/06/2020-georgia-runoff-election-senate-loeffler-ossoff/6192322002/) of the [Senate] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/14/us/politics/georgia-runoffs-senate-control.html) . As of 20 November 2020, the top corporate tax rate is [21%] (https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/corporate-top-tax-rate-and-bracket) . The date the raise would take effect would be immaterial. A surtax on specific subsets of corporations (e.g., "Big Tech" firms) would not count. If relevant legislation does not become law, the question will close No on the appropriate party control bin as of the closing date. 19 January 2021 - Professional Superforecasters see an increased probability (63% on aggregate) that Democrat-controlled Senate may increase top corporate tax rate to higher than 21%. Several Superforecasters point out corporate tax rates are currently at a historic low. On the other hand, this tax represents only a small portion of federal revenue and the higher rate may encourage more offshoring by large corporations.
5 Before 1 January 2023, will legislation creating a "public option" health insurance plan administered by the federal government become law? https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment false none Opened 20 November 2020 President-elect Joe Biden pledged to create a " [public] (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/09/932071991/what-bidens-election-means-for-u-s-health-care-and-public-health) [option] (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/07/joe-biden-policies-health-care-433626) " for the U.S. health care system, however his ability to do so may turn on control of the [Senate] (https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-donald-trump-virus-outbreak-senate-elections-30e139b2435439fc8497304cdca600dd) . A "public option" would be a federally-administered insurance plan open to the public. The date a "public option" would be available would be immaterial. If relevant legislation does not become law, the question will close No on the appropriate party control bin as of the closing date. 19 January 2021 - In pondering the likelihood of a "public option" health insurance plan in the US before 2023, Good Judgment's professional Superforecasters examine such issues as the incoming administration's priority list, filibuster, and the possible budget reconciliation process. Several Superforecasters assign greater probability that the Biden administration will pursue other, less politically challenging options.
6 Before 1 January 2023, will the United States ratify the TPP and/or the CPTPP? https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment false none Opened 20 November 2020 Control of the U.S. Senate will impact the next administration's policy options, including the ratification of [global] (https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/11/16/business/economy-business/japan-rcep-joe-biden-us/) [trade] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/04/biden-would-want-the-us-to-rejoin-tpp-says-harvard-scholar.html) [agreements] (https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R43491.pdf) , in this case ratification requiring a simple majority in both the Senate and the House. President Trump withdrew the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement ( [TPP] (https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp) ) [prior] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-tpp-mcconnell/obamas-tpp-deal-wont-get-senate-vote-this-year-mcconnell-idUSKCN1102CM) to ratification, and remaining parties went forward without the US and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership ( [CPTPP] (https://www.international.gc.ca/trade-commerce/trade-agreements-accords-commerciaux/agr-acc/cptpp-ptpgp/index.aspx?lang=eng) ). Ratification of a revised trade deal which includes the same members as TPP/CPTPP (Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam) would count. If no relevant trade deal is ratified, the question will close No on the appropriate party control bin as of the closing date. 19 January 2021 - With almost two years remaining in the timeframe of the question, Good Judgment's professional Superforecasters currently see a low (2%) probability on aggregate that the US will ratify the TPP and/or CPTPP. It doesn't appear as one of the Biden administration's priorities, but the effect of China's actions will be something to watch.
7 What will be the U.S. real GDP for the second quarter of 2021 relative to the U.S. real GDP for the second quarter of 2019? https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment false none Opened 1 May 2020 Speculations are wide and numerous about how much the Covid [outbreak] (https://www.morningstar.com/articles/976107/coronavirus-update-long-term-economic-impact-forecast-to-be-less-than-2008-recession) will [impact] (https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56335) U.S. real [GDP] (https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-hit-to-us-economy-gdp-jobs-only-just-starting-2020-4) in the long term. The outcome will be determined using data for both Q2 2019 and Q2 2021 from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data ( [FRED] (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1) ) database upon the release of BEA's advance estimate for Q2 2021. Historical data are also available on [BEA] (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey) 's website (select "view data in XLS or other formats, and see Table 1.1.6 in the Section 1 file). The real GDP reported for Q2 2019 as of launch was $19,021.860 billion (subject to future revisions). 27 January 2021 - Vaccine rollout, however slow, and the expected additional stimulus bill are good news for the economic outlook in the United States. The second quarter of 2021 may not yet be the time when their full benefits are felt, but Good Judgment's Superforecasters predict the country should be well on the way to a modest economic growth by then. Some segments of the society, especially white-collar workers, did not experience the economic fallout from the pandemic as acutely as their blue-collar counterparts did, and these are the segments that tend to have most impact on the economy through consumer spending. Companies are expected to increase economic activity in anticipation of recovery. Superforecasters are assigning the highest probability (68%) to the second-quarter GDP for 2021 being lower by 0% to 5% relative to the second quarter of 2019, and 29% probability to it being higher. There is now zero probability on aggregate that Q2 2021 GDP will be lower by more than 10% relative to the corresponding figure for 2019.
8 When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States? https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment false none Opened 15 December 2020 This question was commissioned by [Open Philanthropy] (https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic) . Dozens of [companies] (https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines) are trying to [develop] (https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine) a [viable] (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html) vaccine for COVID-19. The [FDA] (https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-key-action-fight-against-covid-19-issuing-emergency-use-authorization-first-covid-19) has authorized [Pfizer] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/12/how-fedex-ups-plan-to-distribute-fda-approved-covid-vaccine-when-will-you-get-the-coronavirus-vaccine.html) 's COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found [here] (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101) and [here] (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization) . " [Compassionate use] (https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access) " and " [emergency use] (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization) " authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately [169.1] (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm) million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). 11 January 2021 - Superforecasters currently assign 77% probability that the US will see distribution of enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100mn people between 1 April and 31 May 2021 (Bin C). Bin B "is aspirational at best," according to one Superforecaster. Change in the recommended dosage or the advent of J&amp;J and AstraZeneca vaccines, which do not require the same cold storage as the Pfizer vaccine, could propel distribution toward Bin B timeline ("Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"); however, Superforecasters assign this outcome about 10% probability. On the other hand, slippage along the logistics chain could lead to a Bin D resolution ("Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021"), with 11% probability.
9 When will Germany report that 75 million cumulative vaccine doses for COVID-19 have been given? https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment false none Opened 15 January 2021 The Pfizer vaccine was developed with German partner BioNTech, but the rollout in Germany has been [criticized] (https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-vaccine-german-health-minister-jens-spahn-under-fire/a-56144390) for being [slow] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-germany/scarce-doses-and-empty-vaccination-centres-germanys-vaccine-rollout-headache-idUSKBN29F0BP) . The outcome will be determined using data published by the German government's [Robert Koch Institut] (https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Impfquoten-Tab.html) [in German]. Click on the first link under "Daten" at the bottom of the page to download an xlsx file. In the xlsx file that opens (currently named "Impfquotenmonitoring.xlsx"), see the "Gesamt_bis_einschl_[date]" (Total up to and including [date]) sheet. Refer to column "Gesamtzahl bisher verabreichter Impfstoffdosen" (Total number of vaccine doses given to date) in the row "Gesamt" (Total). The question will resolve on the date indicated in the xlsx file. Whether a particular vaccine's regimen requires one or more doses is immaterial. 22 January 2021 - This question opened on 15 January. To gauge initial estimates, professional Superforecasters are looking at the evolving vaccination rate, breakdown by population groups, and statements by Germany's health officials. Unless the supply and speed of inoculations are improved significantly, Superforecasters are seeing low probability this would resolve before Q3.
10 When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19? https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/ Good Judgment false none Opened 7 December 2020 The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is [pushing] (https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/08/944125280/u-k-begins-nationwide-coronavirus-immunization-largest-in-nations-history) to [execute] (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55227325) its [plan] (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-protocol-for-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-bnt162b2-pfizerbiontech) . The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the [UK] (https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus) [government] (https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1339167258866814976) . For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people. 6 January 2020 - Superforecasters currently see the highest (50%) probability that 35 million people in the UK will have been vaccinated between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021 (Bin C). Potential issues with logistics, up to 25% of population reportedly [skeptical] (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-conspiraci-idUSKBN28H0FI) of the vaccine, and the spread of Covid-19 mutations, on the one hand, and the positive impact of approving additional vaccines on the other, have been pointed out among the factors that will affect the resolution of this question. Probability of Bin E ("Not before 1 September 2021") is deemed very low because of one-shot resolution criteria and a fairly limited bar of 52.5% of population vaccinated paired with AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine approval.
11 In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board? https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment false none Opened 9 October 2020 In its 2020 report, The [Conference] (https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/boardpractices) [Board] (https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/assets/Corporate%20Board%20Practices%202020%20Edition.pdf) reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&amp;P 500 companies explicitly disclosed [board] (https://www.economist.com/business/2019/11/07/how-to-make-your-firm-more-diverse-and-inclusive) members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices [report] (https://www.conference-board.org/us/) . 04 January 2021 - Bin B ("Between 23% and 27%, inclusive") remains a clear leader among the options since the question launched in October. A new NASDAQ rule for disclosing board composition by gender and race is a sign of a trend toward increased diversity expectations; however, the way things stand at present, the shift may not be rapid enough to go beyond 27% in 2021.
12 What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF? https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment false none Opened 9 October 2020 The International Monetary Fund ( [IMF] (https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020) ) and [others] (https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/09/16/is-the-world-economy-recovering) are projecting a significant [contraction] (https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/) in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF [website] (https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending) , choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database"; then choose "Entire Dataset"; then download the "By Country Groups" file in the "Tab Delimited Values" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as "Gross domestic product, current prices" and Units as "Purchasing power parity; international dollars." Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the [April 2020] (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/WEOApr2020alla.xls) report. 04 January 2021 - Bin D ("Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive") remains the Superforecasters' top choice for the resolution of this question. Positive news on vaccine roll-out and Asia's economic recovery appeared to solidify this position.
13 What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar? https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment false none Opened 9 October 2020 Interest in [sustainable] (https://www.morningstar.com/articles/994219/sustainable-funds-continue-to-rake-in-assets-during-the-second-quarter) [sector] (https://www.morningstar.com/articles/984776/theres-ample-room-for-sustainable-investing-to-grow-in-the-us) [investment] (https://www.economist.com/business/2020/10/03/the-proliferation-of-sustainability-accounting-standards-comes-with-costs) [has] (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-25/trump-administration-targets-esg-funds-with-proposed-401-k-rule) been high in Europe and is increasing in the U.S.; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using [data] (https://www.morningstar.com/lp/global-esg-flows) from [Morningstar] (https://www.morningstar.com/articles/961765/sustainable-fund-flows-in-2019-smash-previous-records) for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. for 2020 and 2021. 04 January 2021 - Of the three options, Bin B ("Higher by between 0% and 100%") remains the most likely one. However, Bin C ("Higher by more than 100%") saw a slight increase in the past week. Superforecasters are noting the success of ESG funds in the US in 2020 and potential ESG-friendly developments a Biden administration is likely to bring.
14 When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States? https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment false none Opened 9 October 2020 Dozens of companies are trying to [develop] (https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines) a [viable] (https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine) [vaccine] (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html) for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived [can] (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101) be [ found] (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization) [here] (https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access) . "Compassionate use" and "emergency use" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also [count] (https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access) . Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the [2018-2019] (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm) flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). 8 January 2021 - A bottleneck in vaccinations has been curbing distribution numbers. Superforecasters continue to debate whether this question will resolve in Q2 or Q3 of 2021. Their commentary highlights the view that once early errors in distribution are resolved and more vaccines become approved and available, distribution pace would pick up. But would it slip just beyond Q2?
15 As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who 'worked from home exclusively'? As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who &quot;worked from home exclusively&quot;? https://goodjudgment.io/economist/ Good Judgment false none Opened 9 October 2020 The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many [workers] (https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/09/12/covid-19-has-forced-a-radical-shift-in-working-habits) to work from [home] (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487) , and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the [ONS] (https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/1october2020#social-impacts-of-the-coronavirus-on-great-britain) reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021. 04 January 2021 - Ever since this question opened, Bin B ("More than 10% but less than 20%") has been a clear leader and continues to gain ground since the end of October. Although certain advantages to working from home (WFH) are noted, from savings in company budgets to reduced emissions from commute, the percentage of jobs that lend themselves exclusively to remote work is relatively low and municipalities need tax revenue from downtown business where people spending on lunch hours, breaks, and after-work get-togethers.
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"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Opened 22 January 2021\nThe next inauguration for president of the United States is scheduled for [20 January] (https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/amendments-11-27#xx) 2025. A transfer of presidential powers and duties to an acting president under Section 3 or Section 4 of the [25th Amendment] (https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/amendments-11-27#xxv) for more than 30 consecutive calendar days would count.\nWhen he took the oath of office, Joe Biden became the oldest newly inaugurated US president in history and also the oldest sitting president ever. Does this imply increased odds he will cease to be president before the end of his term? Good Judgment's Superforecasters assign 7% probability to this outcome. Actuarial tables suggest a US male at age 78 will live another nine years on average. President Biden has no known underlying health conditions. He also has arguably the best health care in the world, and his father died at 87. \nBut, as one Superforecaster pointed out, much can happen in four years. Ceasing on 20 January 2025, when Biden's first term expires, currently has the highest probability (49%). Stepping down or losing a re-election bid could be potential reasons. As to the latter, the base rate, since 1860, for incumbent presidents winning re-election is about 70%. However, Biden would be 82 years old in 2025 and that might affect both his chances and his decision to run. \nSuperforecasters also collectively assign 44% probability that Biden will not cease to be president of the United States before 21 January 2025.\n"
},
{
"Title": "Before 1 January 2023, will legislation raising the top marginal tax rate for long-term capital gains in the U.S. to higher than 20% become law?",
"URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"Platform": "Good Judgment",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Opened 20 November 2020\nPresident-elect Joe Biden has signaled his intention to [change] (https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-joe-bidens-tax-increase-wish-list-could-affect-you-11605263403) current [tax] (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-biden-capital-gains-tax/fact-check-biden-willonlytax-capital-gainsat-40for-those-earning-over-1-million-annually-idUSKBN26Z2CA) rates, however his ability to do so may turn on [control] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/14/us/politics/georgia-runoffs-senate-control.html) of the [Senate] (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/06/2020-georgia-runoff-election-senate-loeffler-ossoff/6192322002/) . As of 20 November 2020, the top tax rate for long-term capital gains is [20%] (https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/101515/comparing-longterm-vs-shortterm-capital-gain-tax-rates.asp) . [Exceptions] (https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc409) where certain capital gains are taxed at rates greater than the top tax rate would not count. The date the raise would take effect would be immaterial. If relevant legislation does not become law, the question will close No on the appropriate party control bin as of the closing date.\n20 January 2021 - Good Judgment's professional Superforecasters consider, as the outside view, historical levels of the top marginal tax rate in the US and the measure's potential political divisiveness. The inside view includes the size of the initial Covid stimulus plan, and the second bill expected in February, as well as the role of Senators Bernie Sanders and Ron Wyden in President Biden's tax and spending agenda. \n"
},
{
"Title": "Before 1 January 2023, will legislation raising the top corporate tax rate in the U.S. to higher than 21% become law?",
"URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"Platform": "Good Judgment",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Opened 20 November 2020\nPresident-elect Joe Biden has signaled his [intention] (https://www.investopedia.com/explaining-biden-s-tax-plan-5080766) to change current tax rates, however his ability to do so may turn on [control] (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/06/2020-georgia-runoff-election-senate-loeffler-ossoff/6192322002/) of the [Senate] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/14/us/politics/georgia-runoffs-senate-control.html) . As of 20 November 2020, the top corporate tax rate is [21%] (https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/corporate-top-tax-rate-and-bracket) . The date the raise would take effect would be immaterial. A surtax on specific subsets of corporations (e.g., \"Big Tech\" firms) would not count. If relevant legislation does not become law, the question will close No on the appropriate party control bin as of the closing date.\n19 January 2021 - Professional Superforecasters see an increased probability (63% on aggregate) that Democrat-controlled Senate may increase top corporate tax rate to higher than 21%. Several Superforecasters point out corporate tax rates are currently at a historic low. On the other hand, this tax represents only a small portion of federal revenue and the higher rate may encourage more offshoring by large corporations.\n"
},
{
"Title": "Before 1 January 2023, will legislation creating a \"public option\" health insurance plan administered by the federal government become law?",
"URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"Platform": "Good Judgment",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Opened 20 November 2020\nPresident-elect Joe Biden pledged to create a \" [public] (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/09/932071991/what-bidens-election-means-for-u-s-health-care-and-public-health) [option] (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/07/joe-biden-policies-health-care-433626) \" for the U.S. health care system, however his ability to do so may turn on control of the [Senate] (https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-donald-trump-virus-outbreak-senate-elections-30e139b2435439fc8497304cdca600dd) . A \"public option\" would be a federally-administered insurance plan open to the public. The date a \"public option\" would be available would be immaterial. If relevant legislation does not become law, the question will close No on the appropriate party control bin as of the closing date.\n19 January 2021 - In pondering the likelihood of a \"public option\" health insurance plan in the US before 2023, Good Judgment's professional Superforecasters examine such issues as the incoming administration's priority list, filibuster, and the possible budget reconciliation process. Several Superforecasters assign greater probability that the Biden administration will pursue other, less politically challenging options.\n"
},
{
"Title": "Before 1 January 2023, will the United States ratify the TPP and/or the CPTPP?",
"URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"Platform": "Good Judgment",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Opened 20 November 2020\nControl of the U.S. Senate will impact the next administration's policy options, including the ratification of [global] (https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/11/16/business/economy-business/japan-rcep-joe-biden-us/) [trade] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/04/biden-would-want-the-us-to-rejoin-tpp-says-harvard-scholar.html) [agreements] (https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R43491.pdf) , in this case ratification requiring a simple majority in both the Senate and the House. President Trump withdrew the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement ( [TPP] (https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp) ) [prior] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-tpp-mcconnell/obamas-tpp-deal-wont-get-senate-vote-this-year-mcconnell-idUSKCN1102CM) to ratification, and remaining parties went forward without the US and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership ( [CPTPP] (https://www.international.gc.ca/trade-commerce/trade-agreements-accords-commerciaux/agr-acc/cptpp-ptpgp/index.aspx?lang=eng) ). Ratification of a revised trade deal which includes the same members as TPP/CPTPP (Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam) would count. If no relevant trade deal is ratified, the question will close No on the appropriate party control bin as of the closing date.\n19 January 2021 - With almost two years remaining in the timeframe of the question, Good Judgment's professional Superforecasters currently see a low (2%) probability on aggregate that the US will ratify the TPP and/or CPTPP. It doesn't appear as one of the Biden administration's priorities, but the effect of China's actions will be something to watch. \n"
},
{
"Title": "What will be the U.S. real GDP for the second quarter of 2021 relative to the U.S. real GDP for the second quarter of 2019?",
"URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"Platform": "Good Judgment",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Opened 1 May 2020\nSpeculations are wide and numerous about how much the Covid [outbreak] (https://www.morningstar.com/articles/976107/coronavirus-update-long-term-economic-impact-forecast-to-be-less-than-2008-recession) will [impact] (https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56335) U.S. real [GDP] (https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-hit-to-us-economy-gdp-jobs-only-just-starting-2020-4) in the long term. The outcome will be determined using data for both Q2 2019 and Q2 2021 from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data ( [FRED] (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1) ) database upon the release of BEA's advance estimate for Q2 2021. Historical data are also available on [BEA] (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey) 's website (select \"view data in XLS or other formats, and see Table 1.1.6 in the Section 1 file). The real GDP reported for Q2 2019 as of launch was $19,021.860 billion (subject to future revisions).\n27 January 2021 - Vaccine rollout, however slow, and the expected additional stimulus bill are good news for the economic outlook in the United States. The second quarter of 2021 may not yet be the time when their full benefits are felt, but Good Judgment's Superforecasters predict the country should be well on the way to a modest economic growth by then. Some segments of the society, especially white-collar workers, did not experience the economic fallout from the pandemic as acutely as their blue-collar counterparts did, and these are the segments that tend to have most impact on the economy through consumer spending. Companies are expected to increase economic activity in anticipation of recovery. Superforecasters are assigning the highest probability (68%) to the second-quarter GDP for 2021 being lower by 0% to 5% relative to the second quarter of 2019, and 29% probability to it being higher. There is now zero probability on aggregate that Q2 2021 GDP will be lower by more than 10% relative to the corresponding figure for 2019.\n"
},
{
"Title": "When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?",
"URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"Platform": "Good Judgment",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Opened 15 December 2020\nThis question was commissioned by [Open Philanthropy] (https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic) .\nDozens of [companies] (https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines) are trying to [develop] (https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine) a [viable] (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html) vaccine for COVID-19. The [FDA] (https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-key-action-fight-against-covid-19-issuing-emergency-use-authorization-first-covid-19) has authorized [Pfizer] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/12/how-fedex-ups-plan-to-distribute-fda-approved-covid-vaccine-when-will-you-get-the-coronavirus-vaccine.html) 's COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found [here] (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101) and [here] (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization) . \" [Compassionate use] (https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access) \" and \" [emergency use] (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization) \" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately [169.1] (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm) million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question).\n11 January 2021 - Superforecasters currently assign 77% probability that the US will see distribution of enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100mn people between 1 April and 31 May 2021 (Bin C). Bin B \"is aspirational at best,\" according to one Superforecaster. Change in the recommended dosage or the advent of J&amp;J and AstraZeneca vaccines, which do not require the same cold storage as the Pfizer vaccine, could propel distribution toward Bin B timeline (\"Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021\"); however, Superforecasters assign this outcome about 10% probability. On the other hand, slippage along the logistics chain could lead to a Bin D resolution (\"Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021\"), with 11% probability.\n"
},
{
"Title": "When will Germany report that 75 million cumulative vaccine doses for COVID-19 have been given?",
"URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"Platform": "Good Judgment",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Opened 15 January 2021\nThe Pfizer vaccine was developed with German partner BioNTech, but the rollout in Germany has been [criticized] (https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-vaccine-german-health-minister-jens-spahn-under-fire/a-56144390) for being [slow] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-germany/scarce-doses-and-empty-vaccination-centres-germanys-vaccine-rollout-headache-idUSKBN29F0BP) . The outcome will be determined using data published by the German government's [Robert Koch Institut] (https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Impfquoten-Tab.html) [in German]. Click on the first link under \"Daten\" at the bottom of the page to download an xlsx file. In the xlsx file that opens (currently named \"Impfquotenmonitoring.xlsx\"), see the \"Gesamt_bis_einschl_[date]\" (Total up to and including [date]) sheet. Refer to column \"Gesamtzahl bisher verabreichter Impfstoffdosen\" (Total number of vaccine doses given to date) in the row \"Gesamt\" (Total). The question will resolve on the date indicated in the xlsx file. Whether a particular vaccine's regimen requires one or more doses is immaterial.\n22 January 2021 - This question opened on 15 January. To gauge initial estimates, professional Superforecasters are looking at the evolving vaccination rate, breakdown by population groups, and statements by Germany's health officials. Unless the supply and speed of inoculations are improved significantly, Superforecasters are seeing low probability this would resolve before Q3.\n"
},
{
"Title": "When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?",
"URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"Platform": "Good Judgment",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Opened 7 December 2020\nThe UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is [pushing] (https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/08/944125280/u-k-begins-nationwide-coronavirus-immunization-largest-in-nations-history) to [execute] (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55227325) its [plan] (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-protocol-for-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-bnt162b2-pfizerbiontech) . The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the [UK] (https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus) [government] (https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1339167258866814976) . For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people.\n6 January 2020 - Superforecasters currently see the highest (50%) probability that 35 million people in the UK will have been vaccinated between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021 (Bin C). Potential issues with logistics, up to 25% of population reportedly [skeptical] (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-conspiraci-idUSKBN28H0FI) of the vaccine, and the spread of Covid-19 mutations, on the one hand, and the positive impact of approving additional vaccines on the other, have been pointed out among the factors that will affect the resolution of this question. Probability of Bin E (\"Not before 1 September 2021\") is deemed very low because of one-shot resolution criteria and a fairly limited bar of 52.5% of population vaccinated paired with AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine approval.\n"
},
{
"Title": "In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?",
"URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
"Platform": "Good Judgment",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Opened 9 October 2020\nIn its 2020 report, The [Conference] (https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/boardpractices) [Board] (https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/assets/Corporate%20Board%20Practices%202020%20Edition.pdf) reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&amp;P 500 companies explicitly disclosed [board] (https://www.economist.com/business/2019/11/07/how-to-make-your-firm-more-diverse-and-inclusive) members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices [report] (https://www.conference-board.org/us/) . \n04 January 2021 - Bin B (\"Between 23% and 27%, inclusive\") remains a clear leader among the options since the question launched in October. A new NASDAQ rule for disclosing board composition by gender and race is a sign of a trend toward increased diversity expectations; however, the way things stand at present, the shift may not be rapid enough to go beyond 27% in 2021.\n"
},
{
"Title": "What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?",
"URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
"Platform": "Good Judgment",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Opened 9 October 2020\nThe International Monetary Fund ( [IMF] (https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020) ) and [others] (https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/09/16/is-the-world-economy-recovering) are projecting a significant [contraction] (https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/) in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF [website] (https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending) , choose the appropriate \"World Economic Outlook Database\"; then choose \"Entire Dataset\"; then download the \"By Country Groups\" file in the \"Tab Delimited Values\" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as \"Gross domestic product, current prices\" and Units as \"Purchasing power parity; international dollars.\" Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the [April 2020] (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/WEOApr2020alla.xls) report.\n04 January 2021 - Bin D (\"Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive\") remains the Superforecasters' top choice for the resolution of this question. Positive news on vaccine roll-out and Asia's economic recovery appeared to solidify this position.\n"
},
{
"Title": "What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?",
"URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
"Platform": "Good Judgment",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Opened 9 October 2020\nInterest in [sustainable] (https://www.morningstar.com/articles/994219/sustainable-funds-continue-to-rake-in-assets-during-the-second-quarter) [sector] (https://www.morningstar.com/articles/984776/theres-ample-room-for-sustainable-investing-to-grow-in-the-us) [investment] (https://www.economist.com/business/2020/10/03/the-proliferation-of-sustainability-accounting-standards-comes-with-costs) [has] (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-25/trump-administration-targets-esg-funds-with-proposed-401-k-rule) been high in Europe and is increasing in the U.S.; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using [data] (https://www.morningstar.com/lp/global-esg-flows) from [Morningstar] (https://www.morningstar.com/articles/961765/sustainable-fund-flows-in-2019-smash-previous-records) for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. for 2020 and 2021.\n04 January 2021 - Of the three options, Bin B (\"Higher by between 0% and 100%\") remains the most likely one. However, Bin C (\"Higher by more than 100%\") saw a slight increase in the past week. Superforecasters are noting the success of ESG funds in the US in 2020 and potential ESG-friendly developments a Biden administration is likely to bring.\n"
},
{
"Title": "When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?",
"URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
"Platform": "Good Judgment",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Opened 9 October 2020\nDozens of companies are trying to [develop] (https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines) a [viable] (https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine) [vaccine] (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html) for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived [can] (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101) be [ found] (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization) [here] (https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access) . \"Compassionate use\" and \"emergency use\" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also [count] (https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access) . Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the [2018-2019] (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm) flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). \n8 January 2021 - A bottleneck in vaccinations has been curbing distribution numbers. Superforecasters continue to debate whether this question will resolve in Q2 or Q3 of 2021. Their commentary highlights the view that once early errors in distribution are resolved and more vaccines become approved and available, distribution pace would pick up. But would it slip just beyond Q2?\n"
},
{
"Title": "As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who 'worked from home exclusively'?",
"Title": "As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who &quot;worked from home exclusively&quot;?",
"URL": "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/",
"Platform": "Good Judgment",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Opened 9 October 2020\nThe COVID-19 pandemic has forced many [workers] (https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/09/12/covid-19-has-forced-a-radical-shift-in-working-habits) to work from [home] (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487) , and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the [ONS] (https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/1october2020#social-impacts-of-the-coronavirus-on-great-britain) reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021.\n04 January 2021 - Ever since this question opened, Bin B (\"More than 10% but less than 20%\") has been a clear leader and continues to gain ground since the end of October. Although certain advantages to working from home (WFH) are noted, from savings in company budgets to reduced emissions from commute, the percentage of jobs that lend themselves exclusively to remote work is relatively low and municipalities need tax revenue from downtown business where people spending on lunch hours, breaks, and after-work get-togethers.\n"
}
]

431
data/goodjudmentopen-questions.csv
View File

@ -1,128 +1,303 @@
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts"
"Will there be a new prime minister of Italy before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1919-will-there-be-a-new-prime-minister-of-italy-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"21%","38"
"Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1916-will-the-united-states-report-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-31-december-2021-than-will-the-european-union","Good Judgment Open",true,"35%","62"
"How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1915-how-many-vacancies-will-arise-on-the-u-s-supreme-court-in-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","71"
"What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1920-what-will-be-the-combined-u-s-domestic-theater-box-office-gross-for-june-july-and-august-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","34"
"Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1918-before-1-october-2021-will-the-republic-of-chad-announce-that-legislative-elections-currently-scheduled-for-24-october-2021-will-be-postponed-or-canceled","Good Judgment Open",true,"90%","21"
"At close of business on 16 June 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1917-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","33"
"Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"70%","89"
"Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912-will-russia-conduct-a-flight-test-of-an-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-before-1-august-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"69%","83"
"Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1909-will-chinese-businessman-jack-ma-physically-appear-in-public-outside-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"5%","124"
"Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"15%","213"
"When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1914-when-will-the-public-health-agency-of-canada-phac-report-1-1-million-or-more-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-canada","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","99"
"How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1913-how-many-u-s-states-will-have-an-infection-rate-of-1-0-or-greater-for-covid-19-as-of-31-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","127"
"Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea","Good Judgment Open",true,"5%","102"
"Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1904-will-the-scottish-national-party-win-a-majority-of-seats-in-the-next-scottish-parliament-election","Good Judgment Open",true,"90%","142"
"Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"15%","57"
"How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902-how-many-seats-will-the-united-russia-party-win-in-the-2021-russian-state-duma-elections","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","80"
"Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1906-before-15-july-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-moldova-s-parliament","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","47"
"When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1907-when-will-a-new-dutch-government-be-sworn-in-after-the-2021-general-election","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","83"
"Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"50%","53"
"What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","112"
"Which NFL team will win Super Bowl LV?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1898-which-nfl-team-will-win-super-bowl-lv","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","178"
"Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"57%","86"
"Will the New START treaty be extended by Russia and the U.S. before 6 February 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1899-will-the-new-start-treaty-be-extended-by-russia-and-the-u-s-before-6-february-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"","242"
"Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","74"
"Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union","Good Judgment Open",true,"77%","143"
"Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"25%","139"
"Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022","Good Judgment Open",true,"4%","72"
"Before 15 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1892-before-15-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","184"
"When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","152"
"At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","144"
"Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","89"
"How many seats in the Legislative Assembly will New Ideas (Nuevas Ideas) win in the 2021 Salvadoran legislative election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1889-how-many-seats-in-the-legislative-assembly-will-new-ideas-nuevas-ideas-win-in-the-2021-salvadoran-legislative-election","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","42"
"What will be the closing price of Mercado Libre stock on 15 February 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1888-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-mercado-libre-stock-on-15-february-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","208"
"What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","135"
"Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"12%","150"
"When will Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies approve the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1890-when-will-mexico-s-chamber-of-deputies-approve-the-federal-law-for-the-regulation-of-cannabis","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","28"
"On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a number of daily new COVID-19 cases per 100k residents of 75.0 or higher?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1881-on-1-march-2021-how-many-states-will-have-a-number-of-daily-new-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-of-75-0-or-higher","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","327"
"On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1880-on-1-march-2021-how-many-states-will-have-a-covid-19-positivity-rate-greater-than-10-0","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","247"
"Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1879-before-1-april-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-israel-s-knesset","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","228"
"At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","88"
"Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin","Good Judgment Open",true,"45%","118"
"Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00","Good Judgment Open",true,"3%","127"
"Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","361"
"Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","319"
"Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china","Good Judgment Open",true,"15%","218"
"Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"4%","276"
"Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers","Good Judgment Open",true,"","193"
"Will the monthly occupancy level of European hotels next reach 50.0% or higher before June 2021, according to Smith Travel Research?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1874-will-the-monthly-occupancy-level-of-european-hotels-next-reach-50-0-or-higher-before-june-2021-according-to-smith-travel-research","Good Judgment Open",true,"15%","259"
"Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","219"
"Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open",true,"","185"
"When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","181"
"Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher","Good Judgment Open",true,"57%","63"
"Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zero","Good Judgment Open",true,"8%","260"
"Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020","Good Judgment Open",true,"90%","86"
"In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitution","Good Judgment Open",true,"66%","52"
"What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloomberg","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","138"
"Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstan","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","86"
"Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1856-will-the-imf-estimate-for-world-gdp-growth-for-2021-be-higher-in-its-april-2021-world-economic-outlook-report-relative-to-its-october-2020-report","Good Judgment Open",true,"85%","285"
"Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peru","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","107"
"Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively"" fell below 20%?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20","Good Judgment Open",true,"50%","369"
"Who will be appointed as the next leader of the Communist Party in Vietnam?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1848-who-will-be-appointed-as-the-next-leader-of-the-communist-party-in-vietnam","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","204"
"What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","416"
"How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","898"
"How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","403"
"Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil","Good Judgment Open",true,"6%","258"
"Will the average price of a gallon of gasoline fall below $1.95 for any week before 2 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1847-will-the-average-price-of-a-gallon-of-gasoline-fall-below-1-95-for-any-week-before-2-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"1%","356"
"Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","396"
"In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count","Good Judgment Open",true,"68%","199"
"Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eia","Good Judgment Open",true,"96%","261"
"On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergency","Good Judgment Open",true,"85%","243"
"Between 13 November 2020 and 12 February 2021, will the closing price per barrel of WTI crude oil be higher than the closing price per barrel of Brent crude oil?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1839-between-13-november-2020-and-12-february-2021-will-the-closing-price-per-barrel-of-wti-crude-oil-be-higher-than-the-closing-price-per-barrel-of-brent-crude-oil","Good Judgment Open",true,"0%","251"
"When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-region","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","225"
"Will the People's Republic of China (PRC) officially declare an air-defense identification zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1832-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-officially-declare-an-air-defense-identification-zone-adiz-over-any-part-of-the-south-china-sea-before-1-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"5%","355"
"Between 9 November 2020 and 28 February 2021, will a country cease to formally recognize Taiwan?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1831-between-9-november-2020-and-28-february-2021-will-a-country-cease-to-formally-recognize-taiwan","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","440"
"Will Russia and the People's Republic of China (PRC) conduct any joint naval exercises before 1 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1833-will-russia-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-conduct-any-joint-naval-exercises-before-1-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"95%","368"
"When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 35 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the Europe Region?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1834-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-35-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-europe-region","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","371"
"At close of business on 17 March 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 27 January 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1824-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-27-january-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","134"
"Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authority","Good Judgment Open",true,"","168"
"Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws","Good Judgment Open",true,"3%","247"
"Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019","Good Judgment Open",true,"95%","234"
"How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","1018"
"Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","236"
"Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir","Good Judgment Open",true,"5%","166"
"Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conduct","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","130"
"Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022","Good Judgment Open",true,"99%","120"
"When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","408"
"For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open",true,"10%","539"
"What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","220"
"What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1799-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-housing-starts-for-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","344"
"When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1801-when-will-lebanon-s-parliament-give-a-vote-of-confidence-to-a-new-government","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","344"
"Before 1 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation at sea between the forces of India and the People's Republic of China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1795-before-1-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-at-sea-between-the-forces-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china","Good Judgment Open",true,"0%","378"
"In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutional","Good Judgment Open",true,"97%","193"
"Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","346"
"Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","233"
"When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788-when-will-25-000-or-more-fans-next-attend-a-premier-league-match","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","557"
"Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom","Good Judgment Open",true,"8%","935"
"Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"5%","340"
"Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782-will-any-2020-california-election-results-be-altered-by-a-cyberattack-against-a-voting-system","Good Judgment Open",true,"0%","289"
"Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"26%","561"
"When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-day","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","686"
"In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-system","Good Judgment Open",true,"92%","186"
"In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774-in-california-v-texas-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-reducing-the-penalty-amount-for-the-individual-mandate-of-the-affordable-care-act-aca-to-zero-rendered-the-individual-mandate-provision-unconstitutional","Good Judgment Open",true,"0%","304"
"Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics","Good Judgment Open",true,"","503"
"How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","445"
"When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1762-when-will-the-eu-amend-its-own-resources-decision-to-help-finance-the-eu-s-proposed-covid-19-recovery-package","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","191"
"How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1760-how-many-cybertrucks-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","315"
"Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-service","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","227"
"Before 14 February 2021, will former King Juan Carlos I and/or former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont return to Spain?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1740-before-14-february-2021-will-former-king-juan-carlos-i-and-or-former-catalan-president-carles-puigdemont-return-to-spain","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","239"
"Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1744-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-debut-a-passenger-vehicle-powered-by-a-solid-state-battery","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","239"
"When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","485"
"Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","258"
"Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used","Good Judgment Open",true,"10%","544"
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","206"
"How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1698-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2021-and-2022-combined","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","193"
"How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1678-how-many-public-dc-fast-charge-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-united-states-by-31-december-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","186"
"How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","941"
"Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","1156"
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law","Good Judgment Open",true,"75%","220"
"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"5%","884"
"How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","255"
"How many total Fast Charge (&gt;22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","249"
"Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","360"
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-european-union-delay-and-or-relax-the-implementation-and-or-enforcement-of-any-of-its-co2-emission-performance-standards-for-new-passenger-cars-and-or-new-light-commercial-vehicles","Good Judgment Open",true,"3%","171"
"What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1583-what-will-be-the-2022-industry-wide-average-cost-of-li-ion-batteries-used-in-battery-powered-electric-vehicles","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","232"
"What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)? ","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1582-what-total-percentage-of-global-vehicle-sales-in-2022-will-be-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-and-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-phevs","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","350"
"Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1411-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-that-caps-administrative-fees-and-or-operating-profits-of-the-country-s-pension-fund-managers","Good Judgment Open",true,"1%","255"
"Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1412-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-nationalizing-private-pension-fund-assets","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","286"
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","Description","# Forecasts"
"Will there be a new prime minister of Italy before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1919-will-there-be-a-new-prime-minister-of-italy-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"35%","After the resignation of Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, how the next Italian government will be formed -- and how Italy will continue to weather the COVID-19 crisis -- remains to be seen ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/lots-of-eu-cash-for-italy-but-what-about-structural-reform) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55802611) , [thelocal.it] (https://www.thelocal.it/20210105/early-elections-or-waste-of-time-heres-what-italys-latest-political-crisis-means) ). Neither a reappointment of Conte nor the appointment of a caretaker prime minister would count.
","71"
"Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1916-will-the-united-states-report-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-31-december-2021-than-will-the-european-union","Good Judgment Open",true,"20%","The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 ( [WHO] (https://covid19.who.int/table) , see 'Deaths - cumulative total',  [European Union] (https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en#tab-0-1) ). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch.
","88"
"How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1915-how-many-vacancies-will-arise-on-the-u-s-supreme-court-in-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The last vacancy on the Supreme Court occurred when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away in 2020 ( [NPR] (https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/100306972/justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-champion-of-gender-equality-dies-at-87) , [Supreme Court] (https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/biographies.aspx) ). For the purposes of this question, any new seats established by Congress would constitute arisen vacancies.
","93"
"What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1920-what-will-be-the-combined-u-s-domestic-theater-box-office-gross-for-june-july-and-august-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The movie industry has seen its box office returns plummet due to the coronavirus pandemic, and there is concern it may never fully recover ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-pandemic-has-shaken-up-the-movie-business) , [LA Times] (https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-12-09/everything-hollywood-lost-during-the-pandemic) ). The outcome will be determined by Box Office Mojo with the sum of the ""Cumulative Gross"" column for June, July, and August 2021 ( [Box Office Mojo] (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/by-year/2021/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses) ). For June, July, and August 2020, the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross was $39,293,148.
","42"
"Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1918-before-1-october-2021-will-the-republic-of-chad-announce-that-legislative-elections-currently-scheduled-for-24-october-2021-will-be-postponed-or-canceled","Good Judgment Open",true,"92%","Elections for Chad's legislature, the National Assembly, were last held in 2011, with 2015 elections postponed five times ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/covid-19-will-help-unscrupulous-incumbents-in-african-elections) , [Barron's] (https://www.barrons.com/news/chad-sets-october-2021-for-delayed-legislative-election-state-radio-01593699304) , [Le Monde] (https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2020/07/03/tchad-les-legislatives-reportees-depuis-5-ans-fixees-a-octobre-2021_6045040_3212.html) [in French]).
","31"
"At close of business on 16 June 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1917-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ( [Federal Reserve] (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) ). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 15-16 June 2021.
","43"
"Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"53%","Years of civil war and other factors have greatly increased food insecurity in Yemen, and the UN and others fear that US policy toward Houthi rebels may exacerbate the problems and lead to famine in the country ( [UN] (https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/01/1082082) , [Radio Canada International] (https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2021/01/16/aid-groups-worry-u-s-terrorist-designation-of-yemen-rebels-will-hasten-famine/) , [In Depth News] (https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/sustainability/food-security-nutrition-sustainable-agriculture/4093-desert-locust-upsurge-continues-to-threaten-food-security-in-the-horn-of-africa) ). For general information on how famines are declared, see: [Integrated Food Security Phase Classification] (http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/alerts-archive/issue-24/en/) , [NPR] (http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean) .
","99"
"Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912-will-russia-conduct-a-flight-test-of-an-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-before-1-august-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"70%","Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years ( [TASS] (https://tass.com/defense/1236575) , [Daily Mail] (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9110579/Russia-planning-flight-test-new-missile-capable-destroying-area-size-France.html) ). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted ( [CSIS] (https://missilethreat.csis.org/russia-to-deploy-sarmat-icbm-in-2021/) ). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial.
","89"
"Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1909-will-chinese-businessman-jack-ma-physically-appear-in-public-outside-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"10%","Alibaba founder Jack Ma made his first public appearance on 20 January 2021 after three months since an October 2020 event in Shanghai where he was critical of Chinese regulators ( [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/china-alibaba-jack-ma/alibabas-jack-ma-makes-first-public-appearance-in-three-months-idINKBN29P0CV) , [NPR] (https://www.npr.org/2021/01/08/954046428/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-has-fallen-off-the-radar-here-are-some-clues-why) , [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/24/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-on-ant-group-ipo-pricing.html) ). An early January report indicated that Ma wasn't missing, but rather ""lying low"" ( [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-is-laying-low-for-the-time-being-not-missing.html) , [Newsweek] (https://www.newsweek.com/jack-ma-missing-billionaire-video-alibaba-1558672) ). For the purposes of this question, both Hong Kong and Macau are considered to be parts of the PRC.
","131"
"Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"","The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ( [NPR] (https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come) , [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html) , [New Statesman] (https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship) ). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.
Versión en Español:
Pregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?
Información adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ( [NPR] (https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come) , [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html) , [New Statesman] (https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship) ). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un ""uno a uno"" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.
Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ( [FAQs] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) ) o envíenos un [correo electrónico] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#9bf8f7fae9f2fdf2f8faeff2f4f5e8dbfcf4f4fff1eefffcf6fef5efb5f8f4f6a4e8eef9f1fef8efa6caeefee8eff2f4f5bea9abd8f7fae9f2fdf2f8faeff2f4f5) . Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí] (https://goodjudgment.com/) .
","222"
"When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1914-when-will-the-public-health-agency-of-canada-phac-report-1-1-million-or-more-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-canada","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control ( [CBC] (https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-january21-2021-1.5881761) ). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC ( [PHAC] (https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html) ). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the "".CSV"" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data (""numtoday"") associated with daily entries for ""Canada"" under ""prname.""
","116"
"How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1913-how-many-u-s-states-will-have-an-infection-rate-of-1-0-or-greater-for-covid-19-as-of-31-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The infection rate (also known as Rt) ""is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect"" ( [COVID Act Now - Glossary] (https://covidactnow.org/glossary#infection-rate) ). The outcome will be determined using data from [covidactnow.org] (https://covidactnow.org) at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 March 2021. See the table ""Compare,"" set to ""States,"" under ""INFECTION RATE."" As of 19 January 2021, 19 states had an infection rate at or above a 1.0. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.
","137"
"Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea","Good Judgment Open",true,"","Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ( [AP] (https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9) , [Bloomberg] (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366) ). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.
","109"
"Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1904-will-the-scottish-national-party-win-a-majority-of-seats-in-the-next-scottish-parliament-election","Good Judgment Open",true,"90%","The next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021 ( [Edinburgh Live] (https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/covid-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-says-19564859) , [Parliament.scot] (https://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/96259.aspx) , [Parliament.scot - Current State of the Parties] (https://www.parliament.scot/msps/12450.aspx) ). First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and opponent of Brexit, is seeking a strong result in the election to build momentum for a new referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54879211) ).
","148"
"Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"11%","In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People's Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including Nicaragua ( [Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs] (https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736) , [Springer Link] (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5) , [Taipei Times] (https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865) , [AP] (https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2) ). An announcement by Nicaragua would count (e.g., [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html) , [CNN] (https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html) ).
Versión en Español:
Pregunta: ¿Nicaragua reconocerá diplomáticamente a la República Popular China antes del 7 de noviembre de 2021?
Información adicional: En las últimas décadas, muchos países han dejado de reconocer a la República de China, comúnmente conocida como Taiwán, en favor del reconocimiento de la República Popular de China. Un puñado de países continúan reconociendo a la República de China, incluyendo Nicaragua ( [Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores de Taiwán] (https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736) , [Springer Link] (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5) , [T] (https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865) [aipei Times] (https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865) , [AP] (https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2) ). Un anuncio de Nicaragua contaría a efectos de la resolución de esta pregunta (por ejemplo, [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html) , [CNN] (https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html) ). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés.
Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ( [FAQs] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) ) o envíenos un [correo electrónico] (http://clarifications@goodjudgment.com) . Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí] (https://goodjudgment.com/) .
","60"
"How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902-how-many-seats-will-the-united-russia-party-win-in-the-2021-russian-state-duma-elections","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vladimir-putin-v-alexei-navalny) , [Moscow Times] (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/12/early-state-duma-elections-a69267) ). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma ( [RT] (https://www.rt.com/russia/509962-putin-kremlin-foreign-interference-election/) , [Forbes] (https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/2020/12/19/russia-in-2021-six-things-to-watch/?sh=5406dcf922d7) ). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question.
","86"
"Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1906-before-15-july-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-moldova-s-parliament","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Newly elected Moldovan President Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has called for parliament to be dissolved and snap elections to be held ( [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/moldova-president-premier/moldovan-president-appoints-interim-pm-but-pushes-for-snap-election-idINKBN29512D) ). Since she won on a pro-EU platform, it remains to be seen if the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) can maintain its support ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55135213) , [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-moldova-election-results/moldova-set-for-coalition-talks-after-inconclusive-election-idUSKCN1QE11O) ). The closing date for this question will not be extended.
","50"
"When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1907-when-will-a-new-dutch-government-be-sworn-in-after-the-2021-general-election","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/a-difficult-year-looms-for-the-european-union) , [Dutch News] (https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/12/a-record-86-parties-register-for-the-march-2021-general-election/) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55674146) , [houseofrepresentatives.nl] (https://www.houseofrepresentatives.nl/cabinet) ). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed ( [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-government/new-dutch-government-sworn-in-after-record-negotiations-idUSKBN1CV15D) ). A caretaker government would not count.
","92"
"Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"45%","While the Nicaraguan government faces sanctions and pressure from the U.S. government and others, Russia's ties with the Central American nation seem to remain strong ( [Costa Rica News] (https://thecostaricanews.com/russia-confirms-plans-to-produce-its-coronavirus-vaccine-in-nicaragua/) , [The Moscow Times] (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/04/foreign-policy-experts-map-russias-plans-for-2021-a72365) , [Kyiv Post] (https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-starts-applying-sanctions-against-nicaragua-because-of-consulate-in-crimea.html) , [Washington Post] (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-soviet-union-fought-the-cold-war-in-nicaragua-now-putins-russia-is-back/2017/04/08/b43039b0-0d8b-11e7-aa57-2ca1b05c41b8_story.html) ). For the purposes of this question, a Russian senior government official is the head of state or an official listed as such by the Russian government ( [government.ru] (http://government.ru/en/gov/persons/) ).
","61"
"What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day ""Market Cap"" figure as reported by Bloomberg ( [Bloomberg] (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/UBER:US) ).
","117"
"Which NFL team will win Super Bowl LV?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1898-which-nfl-team-will-win-super-bowl-lv","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Super Bowl LV (55) is scheduled for Sunday 7 February in Tampa, FL ( [NFL] (https://www.nfl.com/super-bowl) ).
","187"
"Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"75%","North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/emigration-and-low-birth-rates-are-affecting-the-balkans) , [Financial Times] (https://www.ft.com/content/5dafc7e1-d233-48c4-bd6b-90a2ed45a6e7) , [OBC Transeuropa] (https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/North-Macedonia-census-yes-census-no-207268) , [Balkan Insight] (https://balkaninsight.com/2020/10/09/north-macedonia-makes-fresh-push-for-long-overdue-census/) ). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., [OBC Transeuropa] (https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/Census-fails-in-Macedonia-105372) ). The actual release of data is immaterial.
","92"
"Will the New START treaty be extended by Russia and the U.S. before 6 February 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1899-will-the-new-start-treaty-be-extended-by-russia-and-the-u-s-before-6-february-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"100%","Russia and the U.S. signed the current ""New START"" treaty in 2010, which was intended to further reduce stockpiles of nuclear weapons in each country ( [Moscow Times] (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/10/16/putin-proposes-one-year-extension-of-new-start-treaty-a71780) ). The treaty is set to expire on 5 February 2021 unless it is extended for up to five years by mutual agreement or superseded by another agreement ( [Federation of American Scientists] (https://fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R41219.pdf) , [Newsweek] (https://www.newsweek.com/start-treaty-russia-putin-biden-nuclear-arms-1555874) ).
","248"
"Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known by AMLO, has suggested that a referendum on his presidency be held in conjunction with the June 2021 midterm elections ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/amlo-proposes-a-referendum-on-his-presidency-in-mexico) , [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-president/mexico-presidents-rating-at-one-year-high-with-election-in-sight-poll-idUSKBN2820SU) ). Whether a referendum is binding or has any legal effect would be immaterial.
","80"
"Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union","Good Judgment Open",true,"78%","An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-thinking-is-needed-on-workers-rights) ,  [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/business/amazon-union-vote-bessemer-alabama.html) , [The Hill] (https://thehill.com/policy/technology/531500-amazon-workers-in-alabama-inch-closer-to-union-vote) ). A vote must be sanctioned by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to count.
NOTE 11 January 2021: Any Amazon subsidiary wholly-owned by Amazon would count.
","147"
"Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"","The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/corporate-defaults-will-be-surprisingly-few) , [S&amp;P Global] (https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/2021-leveraged-loan-survey-defaults-edge-higher-credit-quality-a-concern) ). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the ""Leveraged Loan Trends"" section, click on the ""Default Rate"" tab to show the ""Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)"" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17.
","146"
"Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022","Good Judgment Open",true,"","President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 ( [ABC News] (https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nicaraguan-government-sets-date-presidential-election-71785222) , [Council on Foreign Relations] (https://www.cfr.org/blog/ten-elections-watch-2021) , [AP] (https://apnews.com/article/elections-blockades-central-america-daniel-ortega-nicaragua-14d04033e443f6da9bf3d11aec0dae47) ). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 ( [Nicaragua Constitution] (https://noticias.asamblea.gob.ni//constitucion/Libro_Constitucion.pdf) [in Spanish], [Nicaragua Constitution] (https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nicaragua_2014.pdf?lang=en)  [in English]).
","76"
"Before 15 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1892-before-15-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea","Good Judgment Open",true,"1%","Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ( [AP] (https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9) , [Bloomberg] (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366) ). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.
","194"
"When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","AMC, the world's largest movie theater chain, is facing challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic continues ( [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/coronavirus-amc-seeks-550-million-as-stock-closes-at-record-low.html) , [Motley Fool] (https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/14/amc-entertainment-lenders-urge-it-to-declare-bankr/) ).
","155"
"At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company ( [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html) , [NPR] (https://www.npr.org/2020/08/19/903858871/apple-is-1st-2-trillion-american-company) ). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg ( [Bloomberg - APPL] (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US) , see ""MARKET CAP""). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2021 will be used to assess its value in dollars (e.g., [Bloomberg - ARAMCO] (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ARAMCO:AB) , [Bloomberg - SAR] (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR) ).
","146"
"Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ( [CONCACAF] (https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds) ).
Versión en Español:
Pregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol?
Información adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ( [CONCACAF] (https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds) ). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés.
Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ( [FAQs] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) ) o envíenos un [correo electrónico] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#ed8e818c9f848b848e8c998482839ead8a8282898798898a80888399c38e8280d29e988f87888e99d0bc98889e99848283c8dfddae818c9f848b848e8c99848283) . Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí] (https://goodjudgment.com/) .
","90"
"How many seats in the Legislative Assembly will New Ideas (Nuevas Ideas) win in the 2021 Salvadoran legislative election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1889-how-many-seats-in-the-legislative-assembly-will-new-ideas-nuevas-ideas-win-in-the-2021-salvadoran-legislative-election","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The 2021 Salvadoran legislative election is scheduled for 28 February 2021 and all 84 seats in the Legislative Assembly are to be contested ( [21votes.com] (https://21votes.com/el-salvador-elections/) , [El Salvador Perspectives] (http://www.elsalvadorperspectives.com/2020/08/el-salvador-looks-toward-2021-national.html) ). New Ideas (Nuevas Ideas) is a political party recently created by Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele ( [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/world/americas/el-salvador-nayib-bukele.html) , [World Politics Review] (https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/24345/el-salvador-s-elections-reveal-voters-frustration-with-politics-as-usual) ). A seat gained as part of a Coalition Pact (Pacto de Coalición) will count toward the resolution of this question ( [Tribunal Supremo Electoral] (https://www.tse.gob.sv/elecciones-2021/inicio#pactos-de-coalicion)  [in Spanish], [Gato Encerrado] (https://gatoencerrado.news/2020/09/01/nuevas-ideas-pacto-91-coaliciones-con-gana-pcn-y-cd-para-elecciones-2021/)  [in Spanish]).
Versión en Español:
Pregunta: ¿Cuantos escaños ganará Nuevas Ideas en la Asamblea Legislativa de El Salvador en las elecciones de 2021? 
Información adicional: Las elecciones legislativas de El Salvador están agendadas para el 28 de febrero de 2021 y todos los 84 escaños en la Asamblea Legislativa están en juego ( [21votes.com] (https://21votes.com/el-salvador-elections/) , [El Salvador Perspectives] (http://www.elsalvadorperspectives.com/2020/08/el-salvador-looks-toward-2021-national.html) ). Nuevas Ideas es un partido político recientemente creado por el Presidente de El Savador, Nayib Bukele ( [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/world/americas/el-salvador-nayib-bukele.html) , [World Politics Review] (https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/24345/el-salvador-s-elections-reveal-voters-frustration-with-politics-as-usual) ). Un escaño obtenido como parte de un Pacto de Coalición contará para la resolución de esta pregunta ( [Tribunal Supremo Electoral] (https://www.tse.gob.sv/elecciones-2021/inicio#pactos-de-coalicion) , [Gato Encerrado] (https://gatoencerrado.news/2020/09/01/nuevas-ideas-pacto-91-coaliciones-con-gana-pcn-y-cd-para-elecciones-2021/) ). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. 
Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ( [FAQs] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) ) o envíenos un [correo electrónico] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#15767974677c737c7674617c7a7b6655727a7a717f60717278707b613b767a782a6660777f7076612844607066617c7a7b302725567974677c737c7674617c7a7b) . Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí] (https://goodjudgment.com/) .
","43"
"What will be the closing price of Mercado Libre stock on 15 February 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1888-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-mercado-libre-stock-on-15-february-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Latin American e-commerce company Mercado Libre has had a major surge in business during the COVID-19 pandemic ( [eMarketer] (https://www.emarketer.com/content/mercado-libre-will-surpass-20-billion-ecommerce-sales-2020) ). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg ( [Bloomberg] (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/MELI:US) ).
Versión en Español:
Pregunta: ¿Cual será el precio de cierre de la acción de Mercado Libre el 15 de febrero de 2021?  
Información adicional: La empresa de e-commerce latino-americana Mercado Libre ha visto un gran crecimiento durante la pandemia de COVID-19 ( [eMarketer] (https://www.emarketer.com/content/mercado-libre-will-surpass-20-billion-ecommerce-sales-2020) ). El resultado de esta pregunta será determinado por el precio de cierre reportado por Bloomberg ( [Bloomberg] (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/MELI:US) ). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés.
Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ( [FAQs] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) ) o envíenos un [correo electrónico] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#55363934273c333c3634213c3a3b2615323a3a313f20313238303b217b363a386a2620373f3036216804203026213c3a3b706765163934273c333c3634213c3a3b) . Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique aquí.
","223"
"What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury saw new record lows in March 2020 as the scale of the economic impact of COVID-19 became clear ( [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/10-year-treasury-yield-plunges.html) , [Investopedia] (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/30-yeartreasury.asp) ). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ( [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US30Y) ).
","139"
"Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"13%","Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post ( [CBS News] (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-section-230-and-why-do-so-many-lawmakers-want-to-repeal-it/) , [Council on Foreign Relations] (https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/trump-and-section-230-what-know) , [Federation of American Scientists] (https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/LSB10306.pdf) , [Cornell] (https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230) , [TechCrunch] (https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/23/trump-ndaa-veto-section-230/) ).
","155"
"When will Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies approve the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1890-when-will-mexico-s-chamber-of-deputies-approve-the-federal-law-for-the-regulation-of-cannabis","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","After several delays and being approved by the Senate of the Republic, the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis is scheduled for a vote by Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies sometime between February and April 2021 ( [Forbes] (https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthoban/2021/12/27/will-we-see-mexico-legalize-cannabis-in-2021/?sh=180c18034ed9) , [Wall Street Journal] (https://www.wsj.com/articles/mexico-set-to-become-worlds-largest-legal-cannabis-market-11609263506) , [Xataka] (https://www.xataka.com.mx/medicina-y-salud/consumir-marihuana-sera-legal-mexico-todo-que-hay-que-saber-nueva-regulacion-consumo-ludico-cannabis)  [in Spanish], [El Economista] (https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/politica/Diputados-deben-subsanar-deficiencias-en-legislacion-que-descriminaliza-la-mariguana-expertos-20201129-0008.html)  [in Spanish]). The approval of an amended version of the legislation approved by the Mexican Senate would count. Whether the legislation actually becomes law is immaterial, and procedural votes other than final approval by the Chamber would not count.
","29"
"On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a number of daily new COVID-19 cases per 100k residents of 75.0 or higher?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1881-on-1-march-2021-how-many-states-will-have-a-number-of-daily-new-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-of-75-0-or-higher","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","As the U.S. tries to reduce COVID-19 cases, the question remains whether the U.S. health care system can handle the load ( [CDC] (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) ). The outcome will be determined using data from https://covidactnow.org at 5:00PM ET on 1 March 2021. See the table ""Compare,"" set to ""States,"" under ""DAILY NEW CASES PER 100K."" For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.
","338"
"On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1880-on-1-march-2021-how-many-states-will-have-a-covid-19-positivity-rate-greater-than-10-0","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","As the U.S. tries to reduce COVID-19 cases, the question remains whether the U.S. health care system can handle the load ( [CDC] (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) ). The outcome will be determined using data from https://covidactnow.org at 5:00PM ET on 1 March 2021. See the table “Compare,” set to ""States,"" under ""POSITIVE TEST RATE."" For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.
","258"
"Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1879-before-1-april-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-israel-s-knesset","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Disagreements within the ruling coalition, most recently over the budget, may lead Israel to hold its fourth election in two years ( [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/world/middleeast/israeli-parliament-election.html) , [Times of Israel] (https://www.timesofisrael.com/bill-to-dissolve-knesset-set-for-delay-until-next-week-angering-blue-and-white/) , [Foreign Policy] (https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/22/israeli-knesset-likely-to-dissolve-as-extension-vote-fails/) ).
","237"
"At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ( [Federal Reserve] (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) ). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its April meeting is scheduled for 27-28 April 2021.
","91"
"Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin","Good Judgment Open",true,"45%","The Diem Association, formerly known as Libra Association and related to Facebook, is planning to launch a single-currency stablecoin in 2021 ( [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/facebook-hopes-the-cryptocurrency-diem-it-backs-will-launch-in-2021.html) , [Diem] (https://www.diem.com/en-us/white-paper/) , [Securities.io] (https://www.securities.io/investing-in-diem-facebooks-libra-project-everything-you-need-to-know/) , [Investopedia] (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp) ).
","120"
"Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","The lira has been under pressure amid Turkey's tensions with the U.S. and the EU, compounded by COVID-19 ( [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/emerging-markets/emerging-markets-turkeys-lira-falls-past-8-per-dollar-fx-stocks-eye-6th-week-of-gains-idUSL4N2IR24P) , [Bloomberg] (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-11/turkish-lira-declines-as-u-s-sanctions-risk-sours-appetite) ). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg ( [Bloomberg] (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDTRY:CUR) ).
","131"
"Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case ( [European Parliament - Briefing] (https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/652066/EPRS_BRI(2020)652066_EN.pdf) , [European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI)] (https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement) , [CEPS] (https://www.ceps.eu/eu-china-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment/) , [South China Morning Post] (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3113906/eu-and-china-set-further-investment-talks-end-year-deadline) , [Core.ac.uk] (https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/148912339.pdf) ). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement.
","366"
"Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Sinovac and Sinopharm are among the many Chinese developers of COVID-19 vaccines ( [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html) , [Sinopharm] (http://www.sinopharm.com/1156.html) , [Sinovac] (http://www.sinovac.com/) , [Guardian] (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/14/chinas-sinopharm-vaccine-how-effective-is-it-and-where-will-it-be-rolled-out) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55212787) ). For more details of the EMA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [AP] (https://apnews.com/article/europe-vaccine-approval-explained-193bc87c8930c54bfc9b9b21c4a9e3f0) , [EMA] (https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines-covid-19) , [EMA - Approvals] (https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines-studies-approval) . For more details regarding the FDA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [FDA - Vaccine Development] (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101) , [FDA - Emergency Preparedness] (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines) . Emergency use approvals would count.
","328"
"Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china","Good Judgment Open",true,"15%","Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service ( [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/fully-driverless-cars-are-being-tested-in-china-for-the-first-time.html) , [TechCrunch] (https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/02/autox-removes-safety-drivers/) , [CGTN] (https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-11/Baidu-rolls-out-self-driving-taxi-service-in-Beijing-UvCnsSa3g4/index.html) ). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question.
Note 2 February 2021: A ride-hailing service using AVs that have remote monitors capable of taking control of the vehicle would not count.
","225"
"Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"4%","The latest trade agreement between the United States and China was the so-called “Phase One” agreement signed in January 2020 ( [U.S. Trade Representative] (https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20agreement/US_China_Agreement_Fact_Sheet.pdf) , [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/trump-and-china-sign-phase-one-trade-agreement.html) , [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-details-factbox-idUSKBN1ZE2IF) , [FOX Business] (https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-china-phase-one-trade-deal-whats-next) , [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-idUSKBN28C0HV) ).
","285"
"Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers","Good Judgment Open",true,"20%","Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action ( [Forbes] (https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/12/12/10-questions-about-bidens-plan-to-cancel-student-loans/) , [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/10/us/biden-clashes-with-liberals-over-student-loan-cancellation.html) , [Nerd Wallet] (https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt#total-federal-student-loan-debt) ). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress ( [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/21/can-joe-biden-forgive-student-debt-without-congress-experts-weigh-in.html) , [Forbes] (https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/11/30/will-biden-cancel-your-student-loans-in-january) ). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect.
","198"
"Will the monthly occupancy level of European hotels next reach 50.0% or higher before June 2021, according to Smith Travel Research?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1874-will-the-monthly-occupancy-level-of-european-hotels-next-reach-50-0-or-higher-before-june-2021-according-to-smith-travel-research","Good Judgment Open",true,"15%","Travel demand in Europe has taken a major hit due to the COVID-19 pandemic ( [Fodor's Travel Guide] (https://www.fodors.com/news/news/coronavirus-outbreak-should-you-cancel-a-trip-to-europe-right-now) ). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Smith Travel Research and its monthly European hotel performance reports, which are generally released the third week of the following month. The reports can be found at https://str.com/data-insights/news/press-releases by setting ""Region"" to ""Europe,"" and ""Type"" to ""Monthly."" After selecting a particular monthly report, see ""Occupancy"" under the ""Euro Constant currency"" section. In October 2020, the occupancy level was 32.3% ( [Smith Travel Research] (https://str.com/press-release/str-europe-hotel-performance-october-2020) )
","264"
"Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China ( [Guardian] (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/china-canada-diplomat-michael-kovrig-detention-latest-) , [Toronto Star] (https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/06/24/two-michaels-fight-is-bigger-than-canada-global-observers-say-and-the-world-is-watching.html) , [CBC] (https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1395286595882) , [South China Morning Post] (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112949/huaweis-meng-wanzhou-back-canadian-court-first-time-reports) ).
","225"
"Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open",true,"8%","In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach ( [Yahoo News] (https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-japan-south-korea-rcep-051029662.html) , [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china/japan-and-china-agree-to-restart-business-travel-coordinate-on-east-china-sea-idUSKBN284042) , [Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs] (https://www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/ep/page23e_000337.html) ). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a ""Yes"" resolution.
","189"
"When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next ( [CNN] (https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/carnival-cruise-canceled-trnd/index.html) , [CDC] (https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html) ). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count.
","183"
"Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher","Good Judgment Open",true,"","The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones ( [Rotten Tomatoes] (https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/game-of-thrones) ). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past ( [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/books/george-rr-martin-winds-of-winter.html) , [Express] (https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/books/1359042/Winds-of-Winter-release-date-George-RR-Martin-blog-ASOIAF-expert-Game-of-Thrones) , [Entertainment Weekly] (https://ew.com/article/2015/04/03/george-rr-martin-winds-date/) ).
","65"
"Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zero","Good Judgment Open",true,"8%","The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate is known as the ""Bank Rate"" ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/britain-will-face-disruption-and-deficit-while-many-britons-will-face-the-dole) , [Bank of England] (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate) ). Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and negotiations with the EU regarding an end to the Brexit transition period, the Bank of England has explored setting negative interest rates for the UK ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54314971) , [Guardian] (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/20/bank-of-england-negative-interest-rates-gertjan-vlieghe-covid) , [S&amp;P Global] (https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/uk-banks-ready-for-painful-negative-interest-rates-market-has-baked-them-in-61330250) ,  [Financial Times] (https://www.ft.com/content/72500c20-4a49-4fa9-a3c8-40ce1d26f436) ). 
","263"
"Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020","Good Judgment Open",true,"90%","Net international migration between the U.S. and abroad projected for 2019 was at its lowest level of the decade at 595,000 ( [Census Bureau] (https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/net-international-migration-projected-to-fall-lowest-levels-this-decade.html) ). The outcome will be determined using data on the projected net international migration for 2021 as first reported by the U.S. Census Bureau ( [Census Bureau] (https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state-total.html) ). Download the Excel file ""Population, Population Change, and Estimated Components of Population Change."" See the row designated ""10"" under ""SUMLEV"" and ""United States"" under ""NAME."" The relevant data are titled ""INTERNATIONALMIG[year]."" For methodological information, see the ""Nation, States, Counties, and Puerto Rico Population"" Methodology file here: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology.html.
","90"
"In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitution","Good Judgment Open",true,"70%","Cedar Point Nursery sued California over state regulations allowing union organizers access to employees on their employers' property without compensation under limited circumstances ( [Oyez] (https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-107) , [SCOTUSblog] (https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/) , [Bloomberg Law] (https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/california-farmers-get-supreme-court-review-of-union-access-rule) , [National Law Review] (https://www.natlawreview.com/article/scotus-to-consider-whether-california-unconstitutionally-takes-private-property-when) ). The trial court dismissed the lawsuit and the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed ( [Casetext] (https://casetext.com/case/nursery-v-shiroma) ). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
","54"
"What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloomberg","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The outcome will be determined using futures price data as reported by Bloomberg ( [Bloomberg] (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM) ).
","142"
"Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstan","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Kyrgyzstan experienced political upheaval in the wake of vote-rigging allegations in its October 2020 parliamentary elections ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2020/11/10/whats-happening-in-kyrgyzstan) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54493185) ). On 17 November 2020, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted amendments to the law on elections mandating that they take place no later than June 2021 ( [Diplomat] (https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/kyrgyzstan-punts-on-elections-to-pursue-constitutional-reforms/) ). Whether results are annulled after the election is held would not impact the counting of an election having been held (e.g., [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030) ).
","89"
"Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1856-will-the-imf-estimate-for-world-gdp-growth-for-2021-be-higher-in-its-april-2021-world-economic-outlook-report-relative-to-its-october-2020-report","Good Judgment Open",true,"88%","The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/governments-must-judge-if-the-economic-recovery-needs-more-help) , [IMF - June 2020] (https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020) , [World Economic Forum] (https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/) ). The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2021, which is expected in April 2021. At the IMF website ( [IMF] (https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending) ), choose the appropriate ""World Economic Outlook Database""; then choose ""Entire Dataset""; then download the ""By Country Groups"" file in the ""Tab Delimited Values"" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as ""Gross domestic product, constant prices"" and Units as ""Percent change."" Scroll over to the appropriate year. Estimated world GDP growth for 2021 was 5.152%, according to the October 2020 report ( [IMF - October 2020] (https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/WEO-Database/2020/02/WEOOct2020alla.ashx) ).
The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard] (https://goodjudgment.io/economist/) .
","288"
"Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peru","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Peru has seen a series of presidents come and go in late 2020 ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/latin-americas-leaders-will-have-plenty-of-headaches) , [CNN] (https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/americas/peru-protests-explainer-scli-intl/index.html) , [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-politics-idUSKBN27W1KU) ). The presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting taking place on 11 April 2021 and a runoff scheduled for 6 June 2021 if needed ( [Peruvian Times] (https://www.peruviantimes.com/09/general-elections-to-be-held-april-2021/32266/) ).
NOTE 15 December 2020: If the first round of the election takes place and requires a subsequent runoff scheduled for after 30 September 2021, the suspend date would be extended to accommodate the runoff. If no election takes place before 1 October 2021, the suspend date would not be extended and the question would resolve on that answer bin.
","114"
"Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively"" fell below 20%?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20","Good Judgment Open",true,"","The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/new-technological-behaviours-will-outlast-the-pandemic) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487) ). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 26 November 2020, the ONS reported that 30% of working adults worked from home exclusively ( [ONS] (https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/26november2020) , see Figure 1 under Section 4). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 3 June 2021.
The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard] (https://goodjudgment.io/economist/) .
","377"
"Who will be appointed as the next leader of the Communist Party in Vietnam?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1848-who-will-be-appointed-as-the-next-leader-of-the-communist-party-in-vietnam","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Vietnam's next National Party Congress is scheduled for January 2021, at which the next secretary-general of the party is meant to be appointed ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vietnams-communist-party-will-have-a-new-leader) , [Vietnam Times] (https://vietnamtimes.org.vn/website-of-13th-national-party-congress-launched-24904.html) ). Rumors have suggested some of the top leadership positions could be consolidated ( [Diplomat] (https://thediplomat.com/2020/09/three-horse-race-for-vietnams-next-communist-party-chief/) ).
NOTE 26 January 2021: If a new leader other than the incumbent is not appointed before 1 March 2021, then the question will close ""A new leader will not be appointed before 1 March 2021.""
","211"
"What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, whether China can meet or exceed its prior pace of growth remains to be seen ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/chinas-economy-will-hold-up-well-in-the-coming-year) ). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics ( [National Bureau of Statistics] (http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=B01) ). The relevant data are listed as ""Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter."" For 2Q 2020, the index was 103.2, which equates to 3.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2021 are released, scheduled for July 2021.
","424"
"How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines is on ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/the-path-to-a-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-quick-but-it-will-be-bumpy) , [FDA] (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines) , [FDA] (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) ).
","916"
"How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-battle-within-the-electric-vehicle-industry-will-intensify) ). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 ( [Tesla Q1 2020] (https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/HZTKGL_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-1Q_VGVL6F.pdf) , [Tesla Q2 2020] (https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/DK2EWG_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-2Q_G6S6GG.pdf) ). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under ""Shareholder Deck"" here: https://ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021.
","407"
"Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil","Good Judgment Open",true,"6%","Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/neither-plagues-nor-scandals-will-topple-brazils-populist-president) ).
","262"
"Will the average price of a gallon of gasoline fall below $1.95 for any week before 2 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1847-will-the-average-price-of-a-gallon-of-gasoline-fall-below-1-95-for-any-week-before-2-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"1%","The initial onset of the COVID-19 pandemic drove gasoline prices under $2.00 per gallon across much of the country ( [Newsweek] (https://www.newsweek.com/gas-prices-are-lowest-years-oil-prices-plummet-due-coronavirus-outbreak-1498622) ). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for ""Weekly U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices"" ( [EIA] (https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&amp;s=EMM_EPM0_PTE_NUS_DPG&amp;f=W) ).
","362"
"Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","Nicolas Maduro remains in power despite continued international pressure and domestic instability ( [Guardian] (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/25/leopoldo-lopez-flees-venezuela-vowing-to-continue-fighting-maduro-regime) , [Al Jazeera] (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/9/maduro-hopes-to-resume-decent-dialogue-with-us-after-biden-win) , [Newsweek] (https://www.newsweek.com/venezuela-defend-start-dialogue-trump-biden-wins-1544542) ).
This question is a longer-term companion of [#1642] (https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1642-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-january-2021) .
","399"
"In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count","Good Judgment Open",true,"70%","The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention ( [Guardian] (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/01/brazil-amazon-rainforest-worst-fires-in-decade) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53893161) ). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its ""Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts"" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts for 2021 exceeds the entire total for 31 December 2020 ( [Global Fire Emissions Database] (http://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html) ).
","203"
"Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eia","Good Judgment Open",true,"96%","A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 ( [EIA 19 October 2020] (https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45516) , [EIA 30 June 2020] (https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44276) ). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for ""Total"" under ""Renewable Energy"" ( [EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE] (https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.03) ). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources.
NOTE 4 January 2021: The EIA figure for ""Total"" under ""Renewable Energy"" has been slightly revised since the question was launched. To be clear, the outcome will be determined using data as reported for May 2019 and May 2021 when May 2021 data are first reported by the EIA.
","263"
"On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergency","Good Judgment Open",true,"85%","On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/abiy-ahmed-presents-ethiopias-voters-with-an-unhappy-choice) ,  [Al Jazeera] (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/4/ethiopia-declares-state-of-emergency-in-opposition-tigray-region) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54805088) , [CNN] (https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/05/africa/ethiopia-abiy-unrest-explainer-intl/index.html) ). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it ( [Ethiopian Constitution] (https://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/et00000_.html) , see Article 93).
","244"
"Between 13 November 2020 and 12 February 2021, will the closing price per barrel of WTI crude oil be higher than the closing price per barrel of Brent crude oil?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1839-between-13-november-2020-and-12-february-2021-will-the-closing-price-per-barrel-of-wti-crude-oil-be-higher-than-the-closing-price-per-barrel-of-brent-crude-oil","Good Judgment Open",true,"0%","West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is a benchmark price for oil in the U.S., while Brent is a benchmark price for oil from the North Sea ( [Investopedia] (https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/052615/what-difference-between-brent-crude-and-west-texas-intermediate.asp) ). The spread, or difference, between the price of the two is an important metric in energy markets ( [Oil Price] (https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Big-Oil-Price-Gamble-US-Producers-Cut-Back-On-Hedging.html) , [CME Group] (https://www.cmegroup.com/education/whitepapers/worldwide-oil-wti-brent-spread.html) ). The outcome will be determined using futures prices as provided by Bloomberg (WTI: [Bloomberg - WTI] (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CL1:COM) , Brent: [Bloomberg - Brent] (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CO1:COM) ).
","254"
"When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-region","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization ( [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard] (https://covid19.who.int/) ).
","231"
"Will the People's Republic of China (PRC) officially declare an air-defense identification zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1832-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-officially-declare-an-air-defense-identification-zone-adiz-over-any-part-of-the-south-china-sea-before-1-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"5%","In recent years, there has been speculation that China would declare an ADIZ over the South China Sea ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/south-east-asian-countries-are-trapped-between-two-superpowers) ,  [National Interest] (https://nationalinterest.org/feature/will-china-set-air-defense-identification-zone-south-china-sea-160896) , [CNN] (https://www.cnn.com/2016/07/13/asia/south-china-sea-ruling-reaction-adiz/) ). An extension of the existing East China Sea ADIZ to cover part of the South China Sea would count. For more information on air defense identification zones and the conflict in the South China Sea, see: [Defense.info] (https://defense.info/global-dynamics/2020/08/will-china-declare-an-air-defense-identification-zone-in-south-china-sea/) , [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/china/2020/06/17/chinas-next-move-in-the-south-china-sea) , [Inquirer.net] (https://globalnation.inquirer.net/188899/china-plan-to-control-south-china-sea-airspace-dangerous-says-lorenzana) .
","361"
"Between 9 November 2020 and 28 February 2021, will a country cease to formally recognize Taiwan?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1831-between-9-november-2020-and-28-february-2021-will-a-country-cease-to-formally-recognize-taiwan","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC ( [Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs] (https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736) ). Two countries in Oceania, the Solomon Islands and Kiribati, were the countries to most recently cease to recognize the ROC ( [Newsweek] (https://www.newsweek.com/who-recognizes-taiwan-two-change-china-1460559) ).
","450"
"Will Russia and the People's Republic of China (PRC) conduct any joint naval exercises before 1 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1833-will-russia-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-conduct-any-joint-naval-exercises-before-1-march-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"95%","Russia and China have engaged in joint naval exercises in the past, both bilaterally and with other nations ( [Diplomat] (https://thediplomat.com/2019/04/china-russia-kick-off-bilateral-naval-exercise-joint-sea/) , [CNN] (https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/27/asia/china-russia-iran-military-drills-intl-hnk/index.html) ). Both Russia and the PRC conducting joint naval exercises with one or more other navies would also count.
NOTE 13 November 2020: The joint exercises must include both Russia and China to count.
","377"
"When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 35 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the Europe Region?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1834-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-35-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-europe-region","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Europe’s “second wave” of COVID-19 has increased concerns regarding the impact of the disease on the continent ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/11/07/the-second-wave-of-covid-19-has-sent-much-of-europe-back-into-lockdown) , [Guardian] (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/05/europes-second-wave-anger-in-italy-as-covid-restrictions-bite-across-continent) ). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization ( [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard] (https://covid19.who.int/) ).
","375"
"At close of business on 17 March 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 27 January 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1824-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-27-january-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ( [Federal Reserve] (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) ). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 16-17 March 2021.
","138"
"Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authority","Good Judgment Open",true,"","Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas finds himself under increased pressure as Arab states improve ties with Israel and political rivals jockey for position ( [Middle East Monitor] (https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201027-the-growing-calls-to-replace-the-palestinian-leadership/) , [Times of Israel] (https://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-slams-israel-sudan-deal-no-one-can-speak-on-behalf-of-palestinians/) , [Foreign Policy] (https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/30/mohammed-dahlan-uae-palestinians-israel/) ).
","171"
"Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","As Amazon has grown it has received increased scrutiny, and there have been calls for it to spin off its cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS) ( [Medium] (https://medium.com/swlh/should-amazon-spin-off-aws-e15d6e307506) , [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/former-amazon-senior-engineer-calls-for-aws-spinoff.html) , [Vox] (https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/10/6/21505027/congress-big-tech-antitrust-report-facebook-google-amazon-apple-mark-zuckerberg-jeff-bezos-tim-cook) , [Investopedia] (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinoff.asp) ). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.
","253"
"Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019","Good Judgment Open",true,"95%","Apple's iPhone net sales have fluctuated over the years, and as of October 2020 Apple has begun to sell the new iPhone 12 and its variants ( [Apple] (https://www.apple.com/iphone/) ). Industry analysts speculate whether 5G capability will bolster declining iPhone sales or if the pandemic's global impact on supply chains and expendable income will hinder iPhone sales ( [9 to 5 Mac] (https://9to5mac.com/2019/11/25/iphone-12-5g-demand/) , [ABS-CBN] (https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/10/14/20/in-china-apples-5g-iphone-12-sparks-fever-pitch-but-divided-reaction) ). Apple Inc.'s Fiscal Year (FY) annual report for 2021 is expected by early November 2021 at https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx under the ""Annual Reports on Form 10-K"" section. For FY 2020, Apple reported net iPhone sales of $137.781 billion, compared to $142.381 billion in FY 2019 ( [Apple 10-K (2020)] (https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/7b5717ca-6222-48e6-801c-9ea28feeef86.pdf) , see page 21).
","238"
"How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","As of 23 October 2020, 3 countries have more than one hundred thousand deaths from COVID-19: the U.S., Brazil, and India ( [France24] (https://www.france24.com/en/20201003-india-s-covid-19-death-toll-tops-100-000-behind-us-and-brazil) ). The outcome of this question will be determined using data reported by the World Health Organization at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 April 2021 ( [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard] (https://covid19.who.int/) ).
","1036"
"Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"1%","Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha faces an array of challenges, including calls for him to resign and protests in the streets of Bangkok against the actions of the monarchy ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54573349) , [Deutsche Welle] (https://www.dw.com/en/thailand-pm-refuses-to-step-down-as-protesters-defy-police/a-55301495) , [CNN] (https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/19/asia/thailand-weekend-protests-monarchy-intl-hnk/index.html) ).
","241"
"Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir","Good Judgment Open",true,"4%","Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have escalated over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people ( [Al-Monitor] (https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/egypt-ethiopia-sudan-talks-stalled-nile-dam.html) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53432948) , [Foreign Policy] (https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/28/renaissance-dam-ethiopia-egypt-negotiations/) ). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council ( [Egypt Today] (https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/88770/Egypt-refers-GERD-issue-to-UN-Security-Council) , [UN] (https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14232.doc.htm) ).
","169"
"Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conduct","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The U.S., China, Russia, and other countries are working to develop hypersonic weapons ( [Federation of American Scientists] (https://fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/R45811.pdf) , [ScienceMag.org] (https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/national-pride-stake-russia-china-united-states-race-build-hypersonic-weapons) , [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/magazine/hypersonic-missiles.html) ). The U.S. Army and Navy collaborated on and successfully tested the C-HGB in March 2020 and are looking to conduct further flight tests in 2021 ( [Defense News] (https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/smd/2020/08/05/heres-how-the-dod-plans-to-meet-its-ambitious-hypersonic-missile-test-schedule/) ). A flight test will be considered “successful” if the U.S. military announces that the C-HGB reaches its designated impact point ( [Defense News] (https://www.defensenews.com/smr/army-modernization/2020/03/20/pentagons-major-hypersonic-glide-body-flight-test-deemed-success/) ).
NOTE 29 October 2020: The simultaneous successful testing of two C-HGBs would count as two tests.
","132"
"Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022","Good Judgment Open",true,"99%","Boom Technology recently unveiled the XB-1, a one-third scale prototype of its future Overture supersonic airliner, and plans to test fly it for the first time in 2021 ( [Boom Supersonic] (https://boom-press-assets.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Boom-Supersonic-XB1-Rollout-Press-Release.pdf) , [BoomSupersonic.com] (https://boomsupersonic.com) , [Flight Global] (https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/boom-rolls-out-xb-1-supersonic-demonstrator-lays-out-overture-timeline/140513.article) ). For the purposes of this question, a test flight would be deemed successful if the aircraft takes off and lands. 
","121"
"When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Travel from the U.S. to Canada for discretionary reasons (non-essential), such as for tourism, recreation or entertainment, is currently prohibited due to COVID-19 ( [Government of Canada] (https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/services/covid/non-canadians-canadiens-eng.html) , [U.S. Embassy - Canada] (https://ca.usembassy.gov/travel-restrictions-fact-sheet/) , [Bloomberg] (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-08/canada-will-pitch-safe-tourism-to-travelers-once-borders-open) ). Permitting discretionary travel for one or more points of entry from the U.S. to Canada would count.
","412"
"For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open",true,"10%","The outcome of this question will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 ( [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard] (https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us) ). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 305,412 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question.
","543"
"What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard ( [LMTonline] (https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php) , [Real Estate Weekly] (https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/) , [Commercial Property Executive] (https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/) ). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 ( [FRED] (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS) ).
","222"
"What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1799-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-housing-starts-for-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, will likely be impacted by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, fires in the western United States straining the lumber industry, and record-low mortgage rates ( [Morningstar] (https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202009175758/us-housing-starts-slip-in-august) , [KATU] (https://katu.com/news/following-the-money/timber-industry-hit-hard-by-fires-will-have-generational-impact) ). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for April 2021, typically in May ( [FRED] (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST) ). For April 2020, housing starts totaled 0.934 million.
","347"
"When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1801-when-will-lebanon-s-parliament-give-a-vote-of-confidence-to-a-new-government","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Mustapha Adib, who was chosen to form a government after the previous one had been toppled following a massive explosion in Beirut in early August 2020, resigned on 26 September 2020, citing tensions among the various political groups in the country ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54307896) , [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/12/21/why-lebanon-struggles-to-form-governments) , [France24] (https://www.france24.com/en/20200927-live-france-s-macron-speaks-about-lebanon-s-crisis-after-pm-designate-quits) , [AP] (https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-beirut-emmanuel-macron-lebanon-financial-markets-257abf1fd90d95ef27f8344204be30e3) ).
","358"
"Before 1 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation at sea between the forces of India and the People's Republic of China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1795-before-1-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-at-sea-between-the-forces-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china","Good Judgment Open",true,"0%","A violent clash in mid-June 2020 between soldiers along a disputed stretch of border between India and China left at least 20 dead, sparking concerns over continued escalation of tensions between the two neighbors ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53061476) , [Washington Post] (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/why-chinese-and-indian-troops-are-clashing-again/2020/09/02/0c1f5f90-ed01-11ea-bd08-1b10132b458f_story.html) , [Fox News] (https://www.foxnews.com/world/china-india-shots-fired-border-dispute) , [Wall Street Journal] (https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-seeks-naval-edge-as-china-penetrates-indian-ocean-11600945203) ). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one or more fatalities of the forces-the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement officials-of either side. For the purposes of this question, ""at sea"" means any territorial or international waters and the airspace above them.
NOTE 29 September 2020: Pangong Tso/Pangong Lake would not be considered to be ""at sea.""
","379"
"In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutional","Good Judgment Open",true,"97%","In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents ( [Oyez] (https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/19-123) ). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech ( [Ballotpedia] (https://ballotpedia.org/Fulton_v._City_of_Philadelphia,_Pennsylvania) ). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City ( [Third Circuit Court of Appeals] (http://www2.ca3.uscourts.gov/opinarch/182574p.pdf) , [SCOTUSblog] (https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/) ). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
","195"
"Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","Erdoğan is embroiled in several controversies in the region, including active engagement in the Libyan civil war, oil &amp; gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems despite warnings from the U.S. and NATO ( [Al Jazeera] (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/turkey-illegitimate-haftar-withdraw-key-libya-areas-200722160827376.html) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53906360) , [Defense News] (https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2020/08/12/congress-has-secretly-blocked-us-arms-sales-to-turkey-for-nearly-two-years/) ).
","351"
"Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on 29 May 2021 ( [UEFA] (https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/025e-0fac7ce8f2d4-6d86444e8807-1000--2020-21-all-you-need-to-know/) , [UEFA (Clubs)] (https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/clubs/) ).
","238"
"When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788-when-will-25-000-or-more-fans-next-attend-a-premier-league-match","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Fans in the UK have been restricted from sporting events due to the coronavirus, and there is uncertainty about when they can return in large numbers ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/sport/54094363) , [Sky Sports] (https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/12069059/coronavirus-premier-league-concerned-by-delays-to-fans-return) , [Goal] (https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/will-there-be-fans-at-premier-league-matches-in-2020-21-when/1sz2evfoff4101efeqoy9hmppq) , [Premier League] (https://www.premierleague.com/fixtures) ).
","559"
"Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom","Good Judgment Open",true,"8%","Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down ( [Britannica] (https://www.britannica.com/biography/Boris-Johnson) ). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/brexit-and-covid-19-show-up-the-disunited-kingdom) ,  [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54156419) , [Independent] (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-coronavirus-self-isolating-labour-covid-19-symptoms-b435681.html) ).
","946"
"Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"5%","CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ( [FEMA] (https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf) ). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, ""terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ( [Cornell] (https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331) ). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State ( [State.gov] (https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/) ). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.
","343"
"Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782-will-any-2020-california-election-results-be-altered-by-a-cyberattack-against-a-voting-system","Good Judgment Open",true,"","Cyberattacks against voting systems in the 2020 elections are an object of continuing concern, including in California ( [Washington Post] (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russian-hackers-who-disrupted-2016-election-targeting-political-parties-again-microsoft-says/2020/09/10/301dd5fe-f36c-11ea-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html) , [CBS SF BayArea] (https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/09/08/san-mateo-co-voter-registrar-working-with-state-feds-to-repel-hackers-foreign-cyberattacks/) , [California AB 2125] (https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180AB2125) , [National Conference of State Legislatures] (https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/post-election-audits635926066.aspx) ). A relevant cyberattack against a federal, state, or local election system that changes vote totals and/or an election outcome for California would count. For purposes of this question, ""voting system"" is a system as defined by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission ( [U.S. Election Assistance Commission] (https://www.eac.gov/voting-system) ). This question will resolve based on available evidence no later than 1 May 2021.
","292"
"Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"25%","CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ( [FEMA] (https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf) ). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, ""terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ( [Cornell] (https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331) ). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.
","571"
"When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-day","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Commercial air travel in the U.S. is increasing, but still remains much lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic ( [CNN] (https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/tsa-checkpoint-numbers-new-pandemic-high/index.html) ). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA ( [TSA] (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput) ). The TSA last screened two million or more travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020.
","693"
"In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-system","Good Judgment Open",true,"92%","To implement its Android operating system, “Google copied 11,500 lines of Oracle’s original, human-readable computer source code, as well as the intricate structure and organization of 37 large packages of computer programs” ( [Supremecourt.gov] (https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-956/93436/20190327160337558_190311%20for%20E-Filing.pdf) ). Oracle sued Google for copyright infringement and the issue has reached the Supreme Court ( [Oyez] (https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/18-956) , [SCOTUSblog] (https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/google-llc-v-oracle-america-inc/) , [Lexology] (https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=ecf5cd6d-2b66-4240-b5d9-efab3c581830) , [ZDNet] (https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-vs-oracle-the-next-chapter/) ). Whether the Supreme Court rules on Google’s copying of Oracle’s code being fair use or not is immaterial to the resolution of this question. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
","187"
"In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774-in-california-v-texas-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-reducing-the-penalty-amount-for-the-individual-mandate-of-the-affordable-care-act-aca-to-zero-rendered-the-individual-mandate-provision-unconstitutional","Good Judgment Open",true,"0%","After the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the ACA in NFIB v. Sibelius, Congress subsequently reduced the penalty for failing to acquire health insurance to $0 ( [Kaiser Family Foundation] (https://www.kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/explaining-texas-v-u-s-a-guide-to-the-case-challenging-the-aca/) , [Law.cornell.edu] (https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/5000A) (see §(3)(A)), [The Hill] (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/365785-congress-repeals-obamacare-mandate-fulfilling-longtime-gop-goal) ). Texas sued to have the ACA declared unconstitutional and prevailed in both District Court and the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ( [Politico] (https://static.politico.com/17/86/6721f2eb435fb2512430e54c2904/220.pdf) , [Casetext] (https://casetext.com/case/texas-v-united-states-31) ). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No.""
","304"
"Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics","Good Judgment Open",true,"5%","Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history ( [Montreal Gazette] (https://montrealgazette.com/sports/montreal-olympics-african-boycott-of-1976-games-changed-the-world) , [Dept. of State] (https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/qfp/104481.htm) , [History.com] (https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/soviets-announce-boycott-of-1984-olympics) ). Some groups are calling on nations to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics due to China's treatment of its Uighur population ( [Daily Sabah] (https://www.dailysabah.com/world/asia-pacific/rights-group-criticizes-ioc-over-uighurs-issue-in-china) , [Politico] (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/25/trump-administration-china-genocide-uighurs-401581) , [Olympic.org] (https://www.olympic.org/beijing-2022) ).
","507"
"How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The Arab League consists of 22 member states ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-15747941) , [CNN] (https://www.cnn.com/2013/07/30/world/meast/arab-league-fast-facts/index.html) , [Arab League] (http://www.lasportal.org/Pages/Welcome.aspx) ). As of 28 August 2020, three members other than Palestine--Egypt, Jordan, and recently the United Arab Emirates--diplomatically recognize Israel, though others could follow ( [France24] (https://www.france24.com/en/20200824-after-uae-israel-deal-which-arab-nation-will-next-forge-ties) , [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/08/22/the-arab-countries-most-likely-to-recognise-israel) , [Whitehouse.gov] (https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-united-states-state-israel-united-arab-emirates/) ). A suspended Arab League member diplomatically recognizing Israel would count ( [Guardian] (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/nov/12/syria-suspended-arab-league) ).
NOTE 2 September 2020: The question is framed ""as of,"" so Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE would count toward resolution so long as they diplomatically recognize Israel as of 28 August 2021.
NOTE 14 December 2020: As of the date of this clarification (14 December 2020), for the purposes of this question, the October announcement on the normalization of relations between Sudan and Israel constitutes Sudan diplomatically recognizing the State of Israel.
","447"
"When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1762-when-will-the-eu-amend-its-own-resources-decision-to-help-finance-the-eu-s-proposed-covid-19-recovery-package","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the ""Next Generation EU"" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed ( [European Council] (https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/45109/210720-euco-final-conclusions-en.pdf) , [European Parliament] (https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-new-boost-for-jobs-growth-and-investment/file-mff-post-2020-own-resources) , [European Commission] (https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_20_935) ). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements ( [Ernst &amp; Young] (https://taxnews.ey.com/news/2020-1869-european-council-adopts-conclusions-on-recovery-plan-and-eu-budget-for-2021-2027-including-agreement-on-introduction-of-new-taxes) , [European Commission] (https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_20_1024) ). The question would resolve upon the last Member State approving the amendment. When the amended Own Resources Decision would take effect is immaterial.
","196"
"How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1760-how-many-cybertrucks-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Tesla recently announced it will manufacture the Cybertruck at its new factory location in Austin, TX ( [Digital Trends] (https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-cybertruck-price-interior-release-date-specs-news/) , [The Verge] (https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/22/21334860/tesla-cybertruck-factory-austin-texas-location-model-y) , [Teslarati] (https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-gigafactory-austin-texas-video/) , [Inverse] (https://www.inverse.com/innovation/61141-tesla-cybertruck-pics-price) ). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results.
","317"
"Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-service","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","In late June 2020, Amazon acquired self-driving technology company Zoox for approximately $1.3 billion ( [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/amazon-spending-1-billion-on-zoox-will-have-to-invest-billions-more.html) , [Forbes] (https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/07/16/amazon-zoox-deal-details-leak-and-hint-at-expensive-acquihire/#50676c1d4ec2) ). While Amazon has framed the acquisition as a move into ride-hailing, there is speculation that the move could lead to greater automation of package deliveries ( [Amazon] (https://blog.aboutamazon.com/company-news/were-acquiring-zoox-to-help-bring-their-vision-of-autonomous-ride-hailing-to-reality) , [India Times] (https://www.indiatimes.com/auto/alternative/amazon-zoox-robo-delivery-518186.html) , [Forbes] (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidsilver/2020/07/03/autonomous-delivery-will-reduce-the-cost-of-residential-package-delivery/#77928f2f4844) ). An autonomous vehicle with a backup driver would count for resolution. A public ride-hailing service does not need to involve payment to count for resolution.
","235"
"Before 14 February 2021, will former King Juan Carlos I and/or former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont return to Spain?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1740-before-14-february-2021-will-former-king-juan-carlos-i-and-or-former-catalan-president-carles-puigdemont-return-to-spain","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Former King Juan Carlos I of Spain has reportedly left Spain in light of recent controversies, while former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont has continued living abroad in exile following the 2017 independence referendum that the Spanish government declared to be illegal ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53710555) , [CatalanNews] (https://www.catalannews.com/politics/item/carles-puigdemont-elected-jxcat-president-with-99-3-of-votes) , [AP] (https://apnews.com/4f40dee005924aab99670da40122309e) ).
","242"
"Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1744-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-debut-a-passenger-vehicle-powered-by-a-solid-state-battery","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Recent advances in battery technology, particularly solid-state batteries, could give rise to a new generation of electric vehicles ( [Car and Driver] (https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a31409442/samsung-solid-state-battery-revealed/) , [Electrek] (https://electrek.co/2020/04/23/work-on-goodenoughs-breakthrough-solid-state-ev-battery-moves-forward/)) . Some companies have announced plans to debut such vehicles, even if not necessarily for mass production yet ( [Road/Show] (https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/toyota-solid-state-battery-electric-olympics/) , [Digital Trends] (https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/toyota-may-introduce-solid-state-batteries-for-electric-cars-by-2020/) ). For examples of vehicle debuts, see: [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/gms-push-to-compete-with-tesla-begins-with-cadillac-lyriq-crossover-debut-thursday.html) , [Axios] (https://www.axios.com/tesla-debuts-first-electric-pickup-truck-cee48fef-fccc-4390-bdc5-1dfede8a8a3e.html) . For the purposes of this question, ""major automakers"" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ( [OICA] (http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf) ). A vehicle would not need to be solely powered by solid-state batteries to count.
NOTE 20 August 2020: For purposes of this question, for a vehicle to be considered ""powered"" by a solid-state battery it must be propelled, at least in part, by the use of a solid-state battery
NOTE 2 October 2020:  For purposes of this question, a ""passenger vehicle"" is a motor vehicle with at least four wheels, used for the transport of passengers, and comprising no more than eight seats in addition to the driver's seat (http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/stats-definition1.pdf).
","244"
"When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States ( [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/spacex-starlink-satellte-production-now-120-per-month.html) , [TechCrunch] (https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/15/leak-reveals-details-of-spacexs-starlink-internet-service-beta-program/) , [Starlink] (https://www.starlink.com/) ). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta.
","488"
"Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806) , [World Meteorological Organization] (https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338) ). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ( [NOAA] (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/) ). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ( [NOAA - June 2020 Report] (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006) ).
Confused? Check our  [FAQ] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)  or  [ask us for help] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#62010e03100b040b0103160b0d0c1122050d0d06081706050f070c164c010d0f5d111700080701165f33170711160b0d0c475052210e03100b040b0103160b0d0c) . To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,  [click here] (https://goodjudgment.com/) .
","262"
"Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used","Good Judgment Open",true,"","In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ( [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y) ). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ( [The Atlantic] (https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/) , [Brookings Institute] (https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/) ).
Confused? Check our  [FAQ] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)  or  [ask us for help] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#d9bab5b8abb0bfb0bab8adb0b6b7aa99beb6b6bdb3acbdbeb4bcb7adf7bab6b4e6aaacbbb3bcbaade488acbcaaadb0b6b7fcebe99ab5b8abb0bfb0bab8adb0b6b7) . To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,  [click here] (https://goodjudgment.com/) .
","546"
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Legal liability for accidents involving self-driving vehicles and features allowing autonomous driving continue to evolve ( [Ars Technica] (https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/06/tesla-driver-blames-autopilot-for-crash-into-police-car/) ,  [ABC News] (https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-agency-eyes-fatal-crash-involving-driving-car-66374234) ,  [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/technology/uber-self-driving-car-arizona.html) ,  [Centre for International Governance Innovation] (https://www.cigionline.org/articles/who-responsible-when-autonomous-systems-fail) ). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question.
This question is the longer-term companion of question  [#1695] (https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1695-between-10-july-and-31-december-2020-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s) . The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.
NOTE 13 November 2020: For the purposes of this question, to ""face criminal charges"" is to be criminally charged, irrespective of any future scheduled trial. Charges filed in 2020 or earlier against a person or firm who/that continues to be criminally charged in 2021 or beyond would not count toward the resolution of this question (2021-2022) unless they/it were criminally charged in relation to a different criminal offense.
","212"
"How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1698-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2021-and-2022-combined","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past ( [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-autos-electric-subsidies/china-to-cut-new-energy-vehicle-subsidies-by-10-this-year-idUSKCN225177) ,  [Shine.cn] (https://www.shine.cn/biz/auto/2006089801/) ,  [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/electric-cars-take-the-spotlight-in-chinas-post-coronavirus-stimulus-plans.html) ,  [Inside EVs] (https://insideevs.com/news/428471/china-market-sales-may-2020-nev/) ). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million ( [Caam.org] (http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/4/cate_154/con_5228367.html)  [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g.,  [Caam.org.cn - Automotive Statistics] (http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/21/cate_463/list_1.html) ,  [Caam.org.cn] (http://www.caam.org.cn/)  [in Chinese],  [Caam.org.cn] (http://www.caam.org.cn/english)  [in English],  [China Daily] (https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/14/WS5e1cfea2a310128217270a2c.html) ).
This question is the longer-term companion of question  [#1697] (https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1697-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2020) . The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.
","198"
"How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1678-how-many-public-dc-fast-charge-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-united-states-by-31-december-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is subject to a ""chicken and egg"" problem such that potential consumers are waiting for an extensive charging network and businesses are awaiting more electric cars on the roads to justify building more charging stations. This problem is especially relevant for DC fast charge stations that can fully charge the EV in less than 30 minutes ( [MY EV] (https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-sellers-advice/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-dc-fast-charging) ). The outcome will be determined using data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 31 December 2022 at 5:00PM ET ( [Alternative Fuels Data Center] (https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC) ). Data on public DC fast charge stations can be found by selecting the ""Advanced Filters"" tab.  First select ""Location"" on the left and set ""Country"" to be ""United States"" while keeping ""State/Territory"" to be ""All."" Then select ""Fuel"" on the left. Under ""Filter by Fuel Type"" select ""Electric"" and set ""Charger types"" to be only ""DC Fast"" while keeping ""Connectors"" and ""Networks"" to be ""All.""
","191"
"How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ( [CNN] (https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html) , [Scientific American] (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/) , [Lancet] (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext) ). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ( [Africa CDC] (https://africacdc.org/covid-19/) ).
Check our  [FAQ] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)  or  [ask us for help] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#0f6c636e7d6669666c6e7b6660617c4f6860606b657a6b68626a617b216c6062307c7a6d656a6c7b325e7a6a7c7b6660612a3d3f4c636e7d6669666c6e7b666061) . To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,  [click here] (https://goodjudgment.com/) .
","958"
"Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ( [ESPN] (https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021) , [Olympic Games] (https://tokyo2020.org/en/) , [Paralympic Games] (https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/) ). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797) ). Postponement(s) alone would not count.
Check our  [FAQ] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)  or  [ask us for help] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#aac9c6cbd8c3ccc3c9cbdec3c5c4d9eacdc5c5cec0dfcecdc7cfc4de84c9c5c795d9dfc8c0cfc9de97fbdfcfd9dec3c5c48f989ae9c6cbd8c3ccc3c9cbdec3c5c4) . To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,  [click here] (https://goodjudgment.com/) .
","1170"
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law","Good Judgment Open",true,"75%","Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ( [The Hill] (https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation) ,  [Federation of American Scientists] (https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf) ,  [Congress.gov (House Bill)] (https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388) ,  [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)] (https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885) ). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a ""bump in the road"" ( [The Hill] (https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic) ,  [Legal Reader] (https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/) ). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.
This question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided.
Check our  [FAQ] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)  or  [ask us for help] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#e88b84899a818e818b899c8187869ba88f87878c829d8c8f858d869cc68b8785d79b9d8a828d8b9cd5b99d8d9b9c818786cddad8ab84899a818e818b899c818786) . To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,  [click here] (https://goodjudgment.com/) .
","221"
"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open",true,"5%","Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ( [CNN] (https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html) , [Center for Strategic and International Studies] (https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/) , [Council on Foreign Relations] (https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea) , [Diplomat] (https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/) ). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.
Check our  [FAQ] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)  or  [ask us for help] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#c6a5aaa7b4afa0afa5a7b2afa9a8b586a1a9a9a2acb3a2a1aba3a8b2e8a5a9abf9b5b3a4aca3a5b2fb97b3a3b5b2afa9a8e3f4f685aaa7b4afa0afa5a7b2afa9a8) . To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,  [click here] (https://goodjudgment.com/) .
","900"
"How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Adding to ongoing Model 3 car deliveries, Tesla began Model Y SUV deliveries ahead of schedule during the first quarter of 2020 ( [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-sees-strong-model-y-production-deliveries-shares-rise-idUSKBN21K3A3) ). Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q1 2020 totaled 76,266 ( [Tesla] (https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795) ). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results.
","258"
"How many total Fast Charge (&gt;22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a ""chicken and egg"" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations ( [Smart Energy International] (https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/electric-vehicles/european-countries-with-fastest-ev-charger-adoption-revealed/) , [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM) ). Europe has gone from zero Fast Charger locations in 2011 to 15,136 as of 2019. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory ( [EAFO] (https://www.eafo.eu/alternative-fuels/electricity/charging-infra-stats) ) for all of 2022, via the graph ""Normal and Fast Public Charging Points (2022)"" when the filter for ""Charger type"" is set to ""Fast (&gt;22kW)"" and the filters at the top of the page are set to ""European Union"" and ""2022"".
","250"
"Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ( [NHTSA] (https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety) , [U.S. News] (https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/) ). For the purposes of this question, ""major automakers"" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ( [OICA] (http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf) ). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count.
Check our  [FAQ] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)  or  [ask us for help] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#a9cac5c8dbc0cfc0cac8ddc0c6c7dae9cec6c6cdc3dccdcec4ccc7dd87cac6c496dadccbc3cccadd94f8dcccdaddc0c6c78c9b99eac5c8dbc0cfc0cac8ddc0c6c7) . To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,  [click here] (https://goodjudgment.com/) .
","361"
"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-european-union-delay-and-or-relax-the-implementation-and-or-enforcement-of-any-of-its-co2-emission-performance-standards-for-new-passenger-cars-and-or-new-light-commercial-vehicles","Good Judgment Open",true,"2%","Due to impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the auto industry in the EU is seeking relief from CO2 emission performance standards regulations ( [European Automobile Manufacturers Association] (https://www.acea.be/news/article/covid-19-auto-sector-letter-to-von-der-leyen) ,  [Europa] (https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regulation_en) ,  [Electrive] (https://www.electrive.com/2020/03/30/european-car-industry-lobby-groups-question-co2-targets-in-the-face-of-covid19/) ). For more information on EU CO2 emission performance standards, see  [REGULATION (EU) 2019/631] (https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32019R0631) , particularly Article 4 and the annexes. The date a change would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.
","174"
"What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1583-what-will-be-the-2022-industry-wide-average-cost-of-li-ion-batteries-used-in-battery-powered-electric-vehicles","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&amp;D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines ( [Clean Technica] (https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/12/teslas-advantage-with-its-battery-technology-low-cost/) ,  [Financial Times] (https://www.ft.com/content/8441929c-5e43-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4) ). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2022, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a  [2015 Nature Climate Change study] (https://mediamanager.sei.org/documents/Publications/SEI-Nature-pre-pub-2015-falling-costs-battery-packs-BEVs.pdf) . The Mack Institute found that there was ""a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2019 was US$ 161 per kWh"" ( [The Mack Institute] (https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2020/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/) ).
","233"
"What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)? ","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1582-what-total-percentage-of-global-vehicle-sales-in-2022-will-be-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-and-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-phevs","Good Judgment Open",false,"none","Climate change and other environmental concerns continue to drive a greater focus on electric vehicles ( [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM) , [NASDAQ] (https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/oil-prices-are-tumbling-but-global-electric-vehicles-will-be-just-fine-says-ubs-2020-03-11) , [CSP] (https://www.cspdailynews.com/fuels/what-global-economic-slump-means-evs) , [IEA] (https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019) ). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using open source data provided by [EV-volumes.com] (http://www.ev-volumes.com/) for 2022, expected to be released in early 2023. The global BEV &amp; PHEV share for 2019 was 2.5% ( [EV-volumes.com] (http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/) ). In the event that the relevant data for 2022 are not available from EV-volumes.com in 2023, this question will be resolved using data from other credible automotive industry sources.
","355"
"Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1411-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-that-caps-administrative-fees-and-or-operating-profits-of-the-country-s-pension-fund-managers","Good Judgment Open",true,"1%","Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ( [Financial Times] (https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a) , [AP] (https://apnews.com/31ab8e9f5b9a467abdda53616edc72c2) , [IPE] (https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle) , [El Universal] (https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/mundo/diez-puntos-para-entender-el-sistema-de-pensiones-que-no-quieren-los-chilenos) [in Spanish]). A constitutional amendment to the same effect would count. Legislation enabling or delegating new regulatory authority to cap administrative fees and/or operating profits would count.
Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1417, which closes in 2020 ( [Question #1417] (https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1417) ). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.
","255"
"Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1412-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-nationalizing-private-pension-fund-assets","Good Judgment Open",true,"1%","Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for the reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ( [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chile-protests-pensions/chiles-fiery-anger-fueled-by-fears-of-poverty-in-old-age-idUSKBN1XB3U8) , [IPE] (https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle) , [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2019/06/08/chile-tinkers-with-its-ground-breaking-pensions-system) , [Economist Intelligence Unit] (https://www.eiu.com/industry/article/1898259973/chiles-pension-reform-makes-progress/2019-07-23) , [Financial Times] (https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a) ). Examples of nationalization include, but are not limited to, the enactment of legislation compelling the divestiture or transfer of privately held pension funds to a public entity or the state, or a constitutional amendment to the same effect. The date or dates of actual asset nationalization would be immaterial.
Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1418, which closes in 2020 ( [Question #1418] (https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1418) ). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.
","288"
1 Title URL Platform Binary question? Percentage Description # Forecasts
2 Will there be a new prime minister of Italy before 1 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1919-will-there-be-a-new-prime-minister-of-italy-before-1-september-2021 Good Judgment Open true 21% 35% After the resignation of Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, how the next Italian government will be formed -- and how Italy will continue to weather the COVID-19 crisis -- remains to be seen ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/lots-of-eu-cash-for-italy-but-what-about-structural-reform) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55802611) , [thelocal.it] (https://www.thelocal.it/20210105/early-elections-or-waste-of-time-heres-what-italys-latest-political-crisis-means) ). Neither a reappointment of Conte nor the appointment of a caretaker prime minister would count. 38 71
3 Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1916-will-the-united-states-report-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-31-december-2021-than-will-the-european-union Good Judgment Open true 35% 20% The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 ( [WHO] (https://covid19.who.int/table) , see 'Deaths - cumulative total',  [European Union] (https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en#tab-0-1) ). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch. 62 88
4 How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1915-how-many-vacancies-will-arise-on-the-u-s-supreme-court-in-2021 Good Judgment Open false none The last vacancy on the Supreme Court occurred when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away in 2020 ( [NPR] (https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/100306972/justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-champion-of-gender-equality-dies-at-87) , [Supreme Court] (https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/biographies.aspx) ). For the purposes of this question, any new seats established by Congress would constitute arisen vacancies. 71 93
5 What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1920-what-will-be-the-combined-u-s-domestic-theater-box-office-gross-for-june-july-and-august-2021 Good Judgment Open false none The movie industry has seen its box office returns plummet due to the coronavirus pandemic, and there is concern it may never fully recover ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-pandemic-has-shaken-up-the-movie-business) , [LA Times] (https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-12-09/everything-hollywood-lost-during-the-pandemic) ). The outcome will be determined by Box Office Mojo with the sum of the "Cumulative Gross" column for June, July, and August 2021 ( [Box Office Mojo] (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/by-year/2021/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses) ). For June, July, and August 2020, the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross was $39,293,148. 34 42
6 Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1918-before-1-october-2021-will-the-republic-of-chad-announce-that-legislative-elections-currently-scheduled-for-24-october-2021-will-be-postponed-or-canceled Good Judgment Open true 90% 92% Elections for Chad's legislature, the National Assembly, were last held in 2011, with 2015 elections postponed five times ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/covid-19-will-help-unscrupulous-incumbents-in-african-elections) , [Barron's] (https://www.barrons.com/news/chad-sets-october-2021-for-delayed-legislative-election-state-radio-01593699304) , [Le Monde] (https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2020/07/03/tchad-les-legislatives-reportees-depuis-5-ans-fixees-a-octobre-2021_6045040_3212.html) [in French]). 21 31
7 At close of business on 16 June 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1917-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021 Good Judgment Open false none The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ( [Federal Reserve] (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) ). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 15-16 June 2021. 33 43
8 Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021 Good Judgment Open true 70% 53% Years of civil war and other factors have greatly increased food insecurity in Yemen, and the UN and others fear that US policy toward Houthi rebels may exacerbate the problems and lead to famine in the country ( [UN] (https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/01/1082082) , [Radio Canada International] (https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2021/01/16/aid-groups-worry-u-s-terrorist-designation-of-yemen-rebels-will-hasten-famine/) , [In Depth News] (https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/sustainability/food-security-nutrition-sustainable-agriculture/4093-desert-locust-upsurge-continues-to-threaten-food-security-in-the-horn-of-africa) ). For general information on how famines are declared, see: [Integrated Food Security Phase Classification] (http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/alerts-archive/issue-24/en/) , [NPR] (http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean) . 89 99
9 Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912-will-russia-conduct-a-flight-test-of-an-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-before-1-august-2021 Good Judgment Open true 69% 70% Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years ( [TASS] (https://tass.com/defense/1236575) , [Daily Mail] (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9110579/Russia-planning-flight-test-new-missile-capable-destroying-area-size-France.html) ). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted ( [CSIS] (https://missilethreat.csis.org/russia-to-deploy-sarmat-icbm-in-2021/) ). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial. 83 89
10 Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1909-will-chinese-businessman-jack-ma-physically-appear-in-public-outside-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-before-1-april-2021 Good Judgment Open true 5% 10% Alibaba founder Jack Ma made his first public appearance on 20 January 2021 after three months since an October 2020 event in Shanghai where he was critical of Chinese regulators ( [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/china-alibaba-jack-ma/alibabas-jack-ma-makes-first-public-appearance-in-three-months-idINKBN29P0CV) , [NPR] (https://www.npr.org/2021/01/08/954046428/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-has-fallen-off-the-radar-here-are-some-clues-why) , [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/24/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-on-ant-group-ipo-pricing.html) ). An early January report indicated that Ma wasn't missing, but rather "lying low" ( [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-is-laying-low-for-the-time-being-not-missing.html) , [Newsweek] (https://www.newsweek.com/jack-ma-missing-billionaire-video-alibaba-1558672) ). For the purposes of this question, both Hong Kong and Macau are considered to be parts of the PRC. 124 131
11 Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021 Good Judgment Open true 15% The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ( [NPR] (https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come) , [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html) , [New Statesman] (https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship) ). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count. Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021? Información adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ( [NPR] (https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come) , [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html) , [New Statesman] (https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship) ). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un "uno a uno" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta. Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ( [FAQs] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) ) o envíenos un [correo electrónico] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#9bf8f7fae9f2fdf2f8faeff2f4f5e8dbfcf4f4fff1eefffcf6fef5efb5f8f4f6a4e8eef9f1fef8efa6caeefee8eff2f4f5bea9abd8f7fae9f2fdf2f8faeff2f4f5) . Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí] (https://goodjudgment.com/) . 213 222
12 When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1914-when-will-the-public-health-agency-of-canada-phac-report-1-1-million-or-more-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-canada Good Judgment Open false none COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control ( [CBC] (https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-january21-2021-1.5881761) ). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC ( [PHAC] (https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html) ). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the ".CSV" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data ("numtoday") associated with daily entries for "Canada" under "prname." 99 116
13 How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1913-how-many-u-s-states-will-have-an-infection-rate-of-1-0-or-greater-for-covid-19-as-of-31-march-2021 Good Judgment Open false none The infection rate (also known as Rt) "is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect" ( [COVID Act Now - Glossary] (https://covidactnow.org/glossary#infection-rate) ). The outcome will be determined using data from [covidactnow.org] (https://covidactnow.org) at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 March 2021. See the table "Compare," set to "States," under "INFECTION RATE." As of 19 January 2021, 19 states had an infection rate at or above a 1.0. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state. 127 137
14 Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea Good Judgment Open true 5% Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ( [AP] (https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9) , [Bloomberg] (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366) ). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count. 102 109
15 Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1904-will-the-scottish-national-party-win-a-majority-of-seats-in-the-next-scottish-parliament-election Good Judgment Open true 90% The next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021 ( [Edinburgh Live] (https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/covid-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-says-19564859) , [Parliament.scot] (https://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/96259.aspx) , [Parliament.scot - Current State of the Parties] (https://www.parliament.scot/msps/12450.aspx) ). First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and opponent of Brexit, is seeking a strong result in the election to build momentum for a new referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54879211) ). 142 148
16 Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021 Good Judgment Open true 15% 11% In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People's Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including Nicaragua ( [Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs] (https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736) , [Springer Link] (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5) , [Taipei Times] (https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865) , [AP] (https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2) ). An announcement by Nicaragua would count (e.g., [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html) , [CNN] (https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html) ). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Nicaragua reconocerá diplomáticamente a la República Popular China antes del 7 de noviembre de 2021? Información adicional: En las últimas décadas, muchos países han dejado de reconocer a la República de China, comúnmente conocida como Taiwán, en favor del reconocimiento de la República Popular de China. Un puñado de países continúan reconociendo a la República de China, incluyendo Nicaragua ( [Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores de Taiwán] (https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736) , [Springer Link] (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5) , [T] (https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865) [aipei Times] (https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865) , [AP] (https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2) ). Un anuncio de Nicaragua contaría a efectos de la resolución de esta pregunta (por ejemplo, [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html) , [CNN] (https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html) ). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ( [FAQs] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) ) o envíenos un [correo electrónico] (http://clarifications@goodjudgment.com) . Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí] (https://goodjudgment.com/) . 57 60
17 How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902-how-many-seats-will-the-united-russia-party-win-in-the-2021-russian-state-duma-elections Good Judgment Open false none Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vladimir-putin-v-alexei-navalny) , [Moscow Times] (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/12/early-state-duma-elections-a69267) ). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma ( [RT] (https://www.rt.com/russia/509962-putin-kremlin-foreign-interference-election/) , [Forbes] (https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/2020/12/19/russia-in-2021-six-things-to-watch/?sh=5406dcf922d7) ). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question. 80 86
18 Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1906-before-15-july-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-moldova-s-parliament Good Judgment Open false none Newly elected Moldovan President Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has called for parliament to be dissolved and snap elections to be held ( [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/moldova-president-premier/moldovan-president-appoints-interim-pm-but-pushes-for-snap-election-idINKBN29512D) ). Since she won on a pro-EU platform, it remains to be seen if the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) can maintain its support ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55135213) , [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-moldova-election-results/moldova-set-for-coalition-talks-after-inconclusive-election-idUSKCN1QE11O) ). The closing date for this question will not be extended. 47 50
19 When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1907-when-will-a-new-dutch-government-be-sworn-in-after-the-2021-general-election Good Judgment Open false none The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/a-difficult-year-looms-for-the-european-union) , [Dutch News] (https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/12/a-record-86-parties-register-for-the-march-2021-general-election/) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55674146) , [houseofrepresentatives.nl] (https://www.houseofrepresentatives.nl/cabinet) ). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed ( [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-government/new-dutch-government-sworn-in-after-record-negotiations-idUSKBN1CV15D) ). A caretaker government would not count. 83 92
20 Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021 Good Judgment Open true 50% 45% While the Nicaraguan government faces sanctions and pressure from the U.S. government and others, Russia's ties with the Central American nation seem to remain strong ( [Costa Rica News] (https://thecostaricanews.com/russia-confirms-plans-to-produce-its-coronavirus-vaccine-in-nicaragua/) , [The Moscow Times] (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/04/foreign-policy-experts-map-russias-plans-for-2021-a72365) , [Kyiv Post] (https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-starts-applying-sanctions-against-nicaragua-because-of-consulate-in-crimea.html) , [Washington Post] (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-soviet-union-fought-the-cold-war-in-nicaragua-now-putins-russia-is-back/2017/04/08/b43039b0-0d8b-11e7-aa57-2ca1b05c41b8_story.html) ). For the purposes of this question, a Russian senior government official is the head of state or an official listed as such by the Russian government ( [government.ru] (http://government.ru/en/gov/persons/) ). 53 61
21 What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021 Good Judgment Open false none Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day "Market Cap" figure as reported by Bloomberg ( [Bloomberg] (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/UBER:US) ). 112 117
22 Which NFL team will win Super Bowl LV? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1898-which-nfl-team-will-win-super-bowl-lv Good Judgment Open false none Super Bowl LV (55) is scheduled for Sunday 7 February in Tampa, FL ( [NFL] (https://www.nfl.com/super-bowl) ). 178 187
23 Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021 Good Judgment Open true 57% 75% North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/emigration-and-low-birth-rates-are-affecting-the-balkans) , [Financial Times] (https://www.ft.com/content/5dafc7e1-d233-48c4-bd6b-90a2ed45a6e7) , [OBC Transeuropa] (https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/North-Macedonia-census-yes-census-no-207268) , [Balkan Insight] (https://balkaninsight.com/2020/10/09/north-macedonia-makes-fresh-push-for-long-overdue-census/) ). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., [OBC Transeuropa] (https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/Census-fails-in-Macedonia-105372) ). The actual release of data is immaterial. 86 92
24 Will the New START treaty be extended by Russia and the U.S. before 6 February 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1899-will-the-new-start-treaty-be-extended-by-russia-and-the-u-s-before-6-february-2021 Good Judgment Open true 100% Russia and the U.S. signed the current "New START" treaty in 2010, which was intended to further reduce stockpiles of nuclear weapons in each country ( [Moscow Times] (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/10/16/putin-proposes-one-year-extension-of-new-start-treaty-a71780) ). The treaty is set to expire on 5 February 2021 unless it is extended for up to five years by mutual agreement or superseded by another agreement ( [Federation of American Scientists] (https://fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/R41219.pdf) , [Newsweek] (https://www.newsweek.com/start-treaty-russia-putin-biden-nuclear-arms-1555874) ). 242 248
25 Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021 Good Judgment Open false none Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known by AMLO, has suggested that a referendum on his presidency be held in conjunction with the June 2021 midterm elections ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/amlo-proposes-a-referendum-on-his-presidency-in-mexico) , [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-president/mexico-presidents-rating-at-one-year-high-with-election-in-sight-poll-idUSKBN2820SU) ). Whether a referendum is binding or has any legal effect would be immaterial. 74 80
26 Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union Good Judgment Open true 77% 78% An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-thinking-is-needed-on-workers-rights) ,  [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/business/amazon-union-vote-bessemer-alabama.html) , [The Hill] (https://thehill.com/policy/technology/531500-amazon-workers-in-alabama-inch-closer-to-union-vote) ). A vote must be sanctioned by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to count. NOTE 11 January 2021: Any Amazon subsidiary wholly-owned by Amazon would count. 143 147
27 Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021 Good Judgment Open true 25% The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/corporate-defaults-will-be-surprisingly-few) , [S&amp;P Global] (https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/2021-leveraged-loan-survey-defaults-edge-higher-credit-quality-a-concern) ). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the "Leveraged Loan Trends" section, click on the "Default Rate" tab to show the "Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17. 139 146
28 Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022 Good Judgment Open true 4% President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 ( [ABC News] (https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nicaraguan-government-sets-date-presidential-election-71785222) , [Council on Foreign Relations] (https://www.cfr.org/blog/ten-elections-watch-2021) , [AP] (https://apnews.com/article/elections-blockades-central-america-daniel-ortega-nicaragua-14d04033e443f6da9bf3d11aec0dae47) ). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 ( [Nicaragua Constitution] (https://noticias.asamblea.gob.ni//constitucion/Libro_Constitucion.pdf) [in Spanish], [Nicaragua Constitution] (https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nicaragua_2014.pdf?lang=en)  [in English]). 72 76
29 Before 15 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1892-before-15-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea Good Judgment Open true 2% 1% Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ( [AP] (https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9) , [Bloomberg] (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366) ). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count. 184 194
30 When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy Good Judgment Open false none AMC, the world's largest movie theater chain, is facing challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic continues ( [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/coronavirus-amc-seeks-550-million-as-stock-closes-at-record-low.html) , [Motley Fool] (https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/14/amc-entertainment-lenders-urge-it-to-declare-bankr/) ). 152 155
31 At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world Good Judgment Open false none On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company ( [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html) , [NPR] (https://www.npr.org/2020/08/19/903858871/apple-is-1st-2-trillion-american-company) ). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg ( [Bloomberg - APPL] (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US) , see "MARKET CAP"). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2021 will be used to assess its value in dollars (e.g., [Bloomberg - ARAMCO] (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ARAMCO:AB) , [Bloomberg - SAR] (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR) ). 144 146
32 Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia Good Judgment Open false none Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ( [CONCACAF] (https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds) ). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol? Información adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ( [CONCACAF] (https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds) ). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ( [FAQs] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) ) o envíenos un [correo electrónico] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#ed8e818c9f848b848e8c998482839ead8a8282898798898a80888399c38e8280d29e988f87888e99d0bc98889e99848283c8dfddae818c9f848b848e8c99848283) . Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí] (https://goodjudgment.com/) . 89 90
33 How many seats in the Legislative Assembly will New Ideas (Nuevas Ideas) win in the 2021 Salvadoran legislative election? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1889-how-many-seats-in-the-legislative-assembly-will-new-ideas-nuevas-ideas-win-in-the-2021-salvadoran-legislative-election Good Judgment Open false none The 2021 Salvadoran legislative election is scheduled for 28 February 2021 and all 84 seats in the Legislative Assembly are to be contested ( [21votes.com] (https://21votes.com/el-salvador-elections/) , [El Salvador Perspectives] (http://www.elsalvadorperspectives.com/2020/08/el-salvador-looks-toward-2021-national.html) ). New Ideas (Nuevas Ideas) is a political party recently created by Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele ( [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/world/americas/el-salvador-nayib-bukele.html) , [World Politics Review] (https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/24345/el-salvador-s-elections-reveal-voters-frustration-with-politics-as-usual) ). A seat gained as part of a Coalition Pact (Pacto de Coalición) will count toward the resolution of this question ( [Tribunal Supremo Electoral] (https://www.tse.gob.sv/elecciones-2021/inicio#pactos-de-coalicion)  [in Spanish], [Gato Encerrado] (https://gatoencerrado.news/2020/09/01/nuevas-ideas-pacto-91-coaliciones-con-gana-pcn-y-cd-para-elecciones-2021/)  [in Spanish]). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Cuantos escaños ganará Nuevas Ideas en la Asamblea Legislativa de El Salvador en las elecciones de 2021?  Información adicional: Las elecciones legislativas de El Salvador están agendadas para el 28 de febrero de 2021 y todos los 84 escaños en la Asamblea Legislativa están en juego ( [21votes.com] (https://21votes.com/el-salvador-elections/) , [El Salvador Perspectives] (http://www.elsalvadorperspectives.com/2020/08/el-salvador-looks-toward-2021-national.html) ). Nuevas Ideas es un partido político recientemente creado por el Presidente de El Savador, Nayib Bukele ( [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/world/americas/el-salvador-nayib-bukele.html) , [World Politics Review] (https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/24345/el-salvador-s-elections-reveal-voters-frustration-with-politics-as-usual) ). Un escaño obtenido como parte de un Pacto de Coalición contará para la resolución de esta pregunta ( [Tribunal Supremo Electoral] (https://www.tse.gob.sv/elecciones-2021/inicio#pactos-de-coalicion) , [Gato Encerrado] (https://gatoencerrado.news/2020/09/01/nuevas-ideas-pacto-91-coaliciones-con-gana-pcn-y-cd-para-elecciones-2021/) ). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés.  Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ( [FAQs] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) ) o envíenos un [correo electrónico] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#15767974677c737c7674617c7a7b6655727a7a717f60717278707b613b767a782a6660777f7076612844607066617c7a7b302725567974677c737c7674617c7a7b) . Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí] (https://goodjudgment.com/) . 42 43
34 What will be the closing price of Mercado Libre stock on 15 February 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1888-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-mercado-libre-stock-on-15-february-2021 Good Judgment Open false none Latin American e-commerce company Mercado Libre has had a major surge in business during the COVID-19 pandemic ( [eMarketer] (https://www.emarketer.com/content/mercado-libre-will-surpass-20-billion-ecommerce-sales-2020) ). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg ( [Bloomberg] (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/MELI:US) ). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Cual será el precio de cierre de la acción de Mercado Libre el 15 de febrero de 2021?   Información adicional: La empresa de e-commerce latino-americana Mercado Libre ha visto un gran crecimiento durante la pandemia de COVID-19 ( [eMarketer] (https://www.emarketer.com/content/mercado-libre-will-surpass-20-billion-ecommerce-sales-2020) ). El resultado de esta pregunta será determinado por el precio de cierre reportado por Bloomberg ( [Bloomberg] (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/MELI:US) ). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ( [FAQs] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) ) o envíenos un [correo electrónico] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#55363934273c333c3634213c3a3b2615323a3a313f20313238303b217b363a386a2620373f3036216804203026213c3a3b706765163934273c333c3634213c3a3b) . Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique aquí. 208 223
35 What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021 Good Judgment Open false none The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury saw new record lows in March 2020 as the scale of the economic impact of COVID-19 became clear ( [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/10-year-treasury-yield-plunges.html) , [Investopedia] (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/30-yeartreasury.asp) ). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ( [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US30Y) ). 135 139
36 Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021 Good Judgment Open true 12% 13% Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post ( [CBS News] (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-section-230-and-why-do-so-many-lawmakers-want-to-repeal-it/) , [Council on Foreign Relations] (https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/trump-and-section-230-what-know) , [Federation of American Scientists] (https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/LSB10306.pdf) , [Cornell] (https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230) , [TechCrunch] (https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/23/trump-ndaa-veto-section-230/) ). 150 155
37 When will Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies approve the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1890-when-will-mexico-s-chamber-of-deputies-approve-the-federal-law-for-the-regulation-of-cannabis Good Judgment Open false none After several delays and being approved by the Senate of the Republic, the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis is scheduled for a vote by Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies sometime between February and April 2021 ( [Forbes] (https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthoban/2021/12/27/will-we-see-mexico-legalize-cannabis-in-2021/?sh=180c18034ed9) , [Wall Street Journal] (https://www.wsj.com/articles/mexico-set-to-become-worlds-largest-legal-cannabis-market-11609263506) , [Xataka] (https://www.xataka.com.mx/medicina-y-salud/consumir-marihuana-sera-legal-mexico-todo-que-hay-que-saber-nueva-regulacion-consumo-ludico-cannabis)  [in Spanish], [El Economista] (https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/politica/Diputados-deben-subsanar-deficiencias-en-legislacion-que-descriminaliza-la-mariguana-expertos-20201129-0008.html)  [in Spanish]). The approval of an amended version of the legislation approved by the Mexican Senate would count. Whether the legislation actually becomes law is immaterial, and procedural votes other than final approval by the Chamber would not count. 28 29
38 On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a number of daily new COVID-19 cases per 100k residents of 75.0 or higher? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1881-on-1-march-2021-how-many-states-will-have-a-number-of-daily-new-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-of-75-0-or-higher Good Judgment Open false none As the U.S. tries to reduce COVID-19 cases, the question remains whether the U.S. health care system can handle the load ( [CDC] (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) ). The outcome will be determined using data from https://covidactnow.org at 5:00PM ET on 1 March 2021. See the table "Compare," set to "States," under "DAILY NEW CASES PER 100K." For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state. 327 338
39 On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1880-on-1-march-2021-how-many-states-will-have-a-covid-19-positivity-rate-greater-than-10-0 Good Judgment Open false none As the U.S. tries to reduce COVID-19 cases, the question remains whether the U.S. health care system can handle the load ( [CDC] (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) ). The outcome will be determined using data from https://covidactnow.org at 5:00PM ET on 1 March 2021. See the table “Compare,” set to "States," under "POSITIVE TEST RATE." For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state. 247 258
40 Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1879-before-1-april-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-israel-s-knesset Good Judgment Open false none Disagreements within the ruling coalition, most recently over the budget, may lead Israel to hold its fourth election in two years ( [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/world/middleeast/israeli-parliament-election.html) , [Times of Israel] (https://www.timesofisrael.com/bill-to-dissolve-knesset-set-for-delay-until-next-week-angering-blue-and-white/) , [Foreign Policy] (https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/22/israeli-knesset-likely-to-dissolve-as-extension-vote-fails/) ). 228 237
41 At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021 Good Judgment Open false none The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ( [Federal Reserve] (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) ). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its April meeting is scheduled for 27-28 April 2021. 88 91
42 Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin Good Judgment Open true 45% The Diem Association, formerly known as Libra Association and related to Facebook, is planning to launch a single-currency stablecoin in 2021 ( [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/facebook-hopes-the-cryptocurrency-diem-it-backs-will-launch-in-2021.html) , [Diem] (https://www.diem.com/en-us/white-paper/) , [Securities.io] (https://www.securities.io/investing-in-diem-facebooks-libra-project-everything-you-need-to-know/) , [Investopedia] (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp) ). 118 120
43 Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00 Good Judgment Open true 3% 2% The lira has been under pressure amid Turkey's tensions with the U.S. and the EU, compounded by COVID-19 ( [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/emerging-markets/emerging-markets-turkeys-lira-falls-past-8-per-dollar-fx-stocks-eye-6th-week-of-gains-idUSL4N2IR24P) , [Bloomberg] (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-11/turkish-lira-declines-as-u-s-sanctions-risk-sours-appetite) ). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg ( [Bloomberg] (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDTRY:CUR) ). 127 131
44 Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open false none While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case ( [European Parliament - Briefing] (https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/652066/EPRS_BRI(2020)652066_EN.pdf) , [European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI)] (https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement) , [CEPS] (https://www.ceps.eu/eu-china-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment/) , [South China Morning Post] (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3113906/eu-and-china-set-further-investment-talks-end-year-deadline) , [Core.ac.uk] (https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/148912339.pdf) ). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement. 361 366
45 Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021 Good Judgment Open false none Sinovac and Sinopharm are among the many Chinese developers of COVID-19 vaccines ( [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html) , [Sinopharm] (http://www.sinopharm.com/1156.html) , [Sinovac] (http://www.sinovac.com/) , [Guardian] (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/14/chinas-sinopharm-vaccine-how-effective-is-it-and-where-will-it-be-rolled-out) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55212787) ). For more details of the EMA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [AP] (https://apnews.com/article/europe-vaccine-approval-explained-193bc87c8930c54bfc9b9b21c4a9e3f0) , [EMA] (https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines-covid-19) , [EMA - Approvals] (https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines-studies-approval) . For more details regarding the FDA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [FDA - Vaccine Development] (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101) , [FDA - Emergency Preparedness] (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines) . Emergency use approvals would count. 319 328
46 Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china Good Judgment Open true 15% Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service ( [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/fully-driverless-cars-are-being-tested-in-china-for-the-first-time.html) , [TechCrunch] (https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/02/autox-removes-safety-drivers/) , [CGTN] (https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-11/Baidu-rolls-out-self-driving-taxi-service-in-Beijing-UvCnsSa3g4/index.html) ). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question. Note 2 February 2021: A ride-hailing service using AVs that have remote monitors capable of taking control of the vehicle would not count. 218 225
47 Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021 Good Judgment Open true 4% The latest trade agreement between the United States and China was the so-called “Phase One” agreement signed in January 2020 ( [U.S. Trade Representative] (https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20agreement/US_China_Agreement_Fact_Sheet.pdf) , [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/trump-and-china-sign-phase-one-trade-agreement.html) , [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-details-factbox-idUSKBN1ZE2IF) , [FOX Business] (https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-china-phase-one-trade-deal-whats-next) , [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-idUSKBN28C0HV) ). 276 285
48 Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers Good Judgment Open true 20% Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action ( [Forbes] (https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/12/12/10-questions-about-bidens-plan-to-cancel-student-loans/) , [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/10/us/biden-clashes-with-liberals-over-student-loan-cancellation.html) , [Nerd Wallet] (https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt#total-federal-student-loan-debt) ). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress ( [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/21/can-joe-biden-forgive-student-debt-without-congress-experts-weigh-in.html) , [Forbes] (https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/11/30/will-biden-cancel-your-student-loans-in-january) ). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect. 193 198
49 Will the monthly occupancy level of European hotels next reach 50.0% or higher before June 2021, according to Smith Travel Research? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1874-will-the-monthly-occupancy-level-of-european-hotels-next-reach-50-0-or-higher-before-june-2021-according-to-smith-travel-research Good Judgment Open true 15% Travel demand in Europe has taken a major hit due to the COVID-19 pandemic ( [Fodor's Travel Guide] (https://www.fodors.com/news/news/coronavirus-outbreak-should-you-cancel-a-trip-to-europe-right-now) ). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Smith Travel Research and its monthly European hotel performance reports, which are generally released the third week of the following month. The reports can be found at https://str.com/data-insights/news/press-releases by setting "Region" to "Europe," and "Type" to "Monthly." After selecting a particular monthly report, see "Occupancy" under the "Euro Constant currency" section. In October 2020, the occupancy level was 32.3% ( [Smith Travel Research] (https://str.com/press-release/str-europe-hotel-performance-october-2020) ) 259 264
50 Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china Good Judgment Open false none Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China ( [Guardian] (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/china-canada-diplomat-michael-kovrig-detention-latest-) , [Toronto Star] (https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/06/24/two-michaels-fight-is-bigger-than-canada-global-observers-say-and-the-world-is-watching.html) , [CBC] (https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1395286595882) , [South China Morning Post] (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112949/huaweis-meng-wanzhou-back-canadian-court-first-time-reports) ). 219 225
51 Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022 Good Judgment Open true 8% In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach ( [Yahoo News] (https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-japan-south-korea-rcep-051029662.html) , [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china/japan-and-china-agree-to-restart-business-travel-coordinate-on-east-china-sea-idUSKBN284042) , [Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs] (https://www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/ep/page23e_000337.html) ). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a "Yes" resolution. 185 189
52 When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s Good Judgment Open false none While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next ( [CNN] (https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/carnival-cruise-canceled-trnd/index.html) , [CDC] (https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html) ). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count. 181 183
53 Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher Good Judgment Open true 57% The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones ( [Rotten Tomatoes] (https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/game-of-thrones) ). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past ( [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/books/george-rr-martin-winds-of-winter.html) , [Express] (https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/books/1359042/Winds-of-Winter-release-date-George-RR-Martin-blog-ASOIAF-expert-Game-of-Thrones) , [Entertainment Weekly] (https://ew.com/article/2015/04/03/george-rr-martin-winds-date/) ). 63 65
54 Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zero Good Judgment Open true 8% The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate is known as the "Bank Rate" ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/britain-will-face-disruption-and-deficit-while-many-britons-will-face-the-dole) , [Bank of England] (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate) ). Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and negotiations with the EU regarding an end to the Brexit transition period, the Bank of England has explored setting negative interest rates for the UK ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54314971) , [Guardian] (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/20/bank-of-england-negative-interest-rates-gertjan-vlieghe-covid) , [S&amp;P Global] (https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/uk-banks-ready-for-painful-negative-interest-rates-market-has-baked-them-in-61330250) ,  [Financial Times] (https://www.ft.com/content/72500c20-4a49-4fa9-a3c8-40ce1d26f436) ).  260 263
55 Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020 Good Judgment Open true 90% Net international migration between the U.S. and abroad projected for 2019 was at its lowest level of the decade at 595,000 ( [Census Bureau] (https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/net-international-migration-projected-to-fall-lowest-levels-this-decade.html) ). The outcome will be determined using data on the projected net international migration for 2021 as first reported by the U.S. Census Bureau ( [Census Bureau] (https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state-total.html) ). Download the Excel file "Population, Population Change, and Estimated Components of Population Change." See the row designated "10" under "SUMLEV" and "United States" under "NAME." The relevant data are titled "INTERNATIONALMIG[year]." For methodological information, see the "Nation, States, Counties, and Puerto Rico Population" Methodology file here: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology.html. 86 90
56 In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitution Good Judgment Open true 66% 70% Cedar Point Nursery sued California over state regulations allowing union organizers access to employees on their employers' property without compensation under limited circumstances ( [Oyez] (https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-107) , [SCOTUSblog] (https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/) , [Bloomberg Law] (https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/california-farmers-get-supreme-court-review-of-union-access-rule) , [National Law Review] (https://www.natlawreview.com/article/scotus-to-consider-whether-california-unconstitutionally-takes-private-property-when) ). The trial court dismissed the lawsuit and the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed ( [Casetext] (https://casetext.com/case/nursery-v-shiroma) ). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." 52 54
57 What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloomberg Good Judgment Open false none The outcome will be determined using futures price data as reported by Bloomberg ( [Bloomberg] (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM) ). 138 142
58 Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstan Good Judgment Open false none Kyrgyzstan experienced political upheaval in the wake of vote-rigging allegations in its October 2020 parliamentary elections ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2020/11/10/whats-happening-in-kyrgyzstan) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54493185) ). On 17 November 2020, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted amendments to the law on elections mandating that they take place no later than June 2021 ( [Diplomat] (https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/kyrgyzstan-punts-on-elections-to-pursue-constitutional-reforms/) ). Whether results are annulled after the election is held would not impact the counting of an election having been held (e.g., [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030) ). 86 89
59 Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1856-will-the-imf-estimate-for-world-gdp-growth-for-2021-be-higher-in-its-april-2021-world-economic-outlook-report-relative-to-its-october-2020-report Good Judgment Open true 85% 88% The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/governments-must-judge-if-the-economic-recovery-needs-more-help) , [IMF - June 2020] (https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020) , [World Economic Forum] (https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/) ). The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2021, which is expected in April 2021. At the IMF website ( [IMF] (https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending) ), choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database"; then choose "Entire Dataset"; then download the "By Country Groups" file in the "Tab Delimited Values" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as "Gross domestic product, constant prices" and Units as "Percent change." Scroll over to the appropriate year. Estimated world GDP growth for 2021 was 5.152%, according to the October 2020 report ( [IMF - October 2020] (https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/WEO-Database/2020/02/WEOOct2020alla.ashx) ). The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard] (https://goodjudgment.io/economist/) . 285 288
60 Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peru Good Judgment Open false none Peru has seen a series of presidents come and go in late 2020 ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/latin-americas-leaders-will-have-plenty-of-headaches) , [CNN] (https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/americas/peru-protests-explainer-scli-intl/index.html) , [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-politics-idUSKBN27W1KU) ). The presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting taking place on 11 April 2021 and a runoff scheduled for 6 June 2021 if needed ( [Peruvian Times] (https://www.peruviantimes.com/09/general-elections-to-be-held-april-2021/32266/) ). NOTE 15 December 2020: If the first round of the election takes place and requires a subsequent runoff scheduled for after 30 September 2021, the suspend date would be extended to accommodate the runoff. If no election takes place before 1 October 2021, the suspend date would not be extended and the question would resolve on that answer bin. 107 114
61 Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who "worked from home exclusively" fell below 20%? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20 Good Judgment Open true 50% The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/new-technological-behaviours-will-outlast-the-pandemic) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487) ). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 26 November 2020, the ONS reported that 30% of working adults worked from home exclusively ( [ONS] (https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/26november2020) , see Figure 1 under Section 4). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 3 June 2021. The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard] (https://goodjudgment.io/economist/) . 369 377
62 Who will be appointed as the next leader of the Communist Party in Vietnam? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1848-who-will-be-appointed-as-the-next-leader-of-the-communist-party-in-vietnam Good Judgment Open false none Vietnam's next National Party Congress is scheduled for January 2021, at which the next secretary-general of the party is meant to be appointed ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vietnams-communist-party-will-have-a-new-leader) , [Vietnam Times] (https://vietnamtimes.org.vn/website-of-13th-national-party-congress-launched-24904.html) ). Rumors have suggested some of the top leadership positions could be consolidated ( [Diplomat] (https://thediplomat.com/2020/09/three-horse-race-for-vietnams-next-communist-party-chief/) ). NOTE 26 January 2021: If a new leader other than the incumbent is not appointed before 1 March 2021, then the question will close "A new leader will not be appointed before 1 March 2021." 204 211
63 What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021 Good Judgment Open false none After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, whether China can meet or exceed its prior pace of growth remains to be seen ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/chinas-economy-will-hold-up-well-in-the-coming-year) ). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics ( [National Bureau of Statistics] (http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=B01) ). The relevant data are listed as "Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter." For 2Q 2020, the index was 103.2, which equates to 3.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2021 are released, scheduled for July 2021. 416 424
64 How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021 Good Judgment Open false none The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines is on ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/the-path-to-a-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-quick-but-it-will-be-bumpy) , [FDA] (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines) , [FDA] (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) ). 898 916
65 How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021 Good Judgment Open false none As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-battle-within-the-electric-vehicle-industry-will-intensify) ). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 ( [Tesla Q1 2020] (https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/HZTKGL_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-1Q_VGVL6F.pdf) , [Tesla Q2 2020] (https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/DK2EWG_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-2Q_G6S6GG.pdf) ). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under "Shareholder Deck" here: https://ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021. 403 407
66 Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil Good Judgment Open true 6% Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/neither-plagues-nor-scandals-will-topple-brazils-populist-president) ). 258 262
67 Will the average price of a gallon of gasoline fall below $1.95 for any week before 2 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1847-will-the-average-price-of-a-gallon-of-gasoline-fall-below-1-95-for-any-week-before-2-march-2021 Good Judgment Open true 1% The initial onset of the COVID-19 pandemic drove gasoline prices under $2.00 per gallon across much of the country ( [Newsweek] (https://www.newsweek.com/gas-prices-are-lowest-years-oil-prices-plummet-due-coronavirus-outbreak-1498622) ). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for "Weekly U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices" ( [EIA] (https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&amp;s=EMM_EPM0_PTE_NUS_DPG&amp;f=W) ). 356 362
68 Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-april-2021 Good Judgment Open true 2% Nicolas Maduro remains in power despite continued international pressure and domestic instability ( [Guardian] (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/25/leopoldo-lopez-flees-venezuela-vowing-to-continue-fighting-maduro-regime) , [Al Jazeera] (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/9/maduro-hopes-to-resume-decent-dialogue-with-us-after-biden-win) , [Newsweek] (https://www.newsweek.com/venezuela-defend-start-dialogue-trump-biden-wins-1544542) ). This question is a longer-term companion of [#1642] (https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1642-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-january-2021) . 396 399
69 In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count Good Judgment Open true 68% 70% The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention ( [Guardian] (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/01/brazil-amazon-rainforest-worst-fires-in-decade) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53893161) ). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its "Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts for 2021 exceeds the entire total for 31 December 2020 ( [Global Fire Emissions Database] (http://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html) ). 199 203
70 Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eia Good Judgment Open true 96% A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 ( [EIA 19 October 2020] (https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45516) , [EIA 30 June 2020] (https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44276) ). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for "Total" under "Renewable Energy" ( [EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE] (https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.03) ). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources. NOTE 4 January 2021: The EIA figure for "Total" under "Renewable Energy" has been slightly revised since the question was launched. To be clear, the outcome will be determined using data as reported for May 2019 and May 2021 when May 2021 data are first reported by the EIA. 261 263
71 On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergency Good Judgment Open true 85% On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/abiy-ahmed-presents-ethiopias-voters-with-an-unhappy-choice) ,  [Al Jazeera] (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/4/ethiopia-declares-state-of-emergency-in-opposition-tigray-region) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54805088) , [CNN] (https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/05/africa/ethiopia-abiy-unrest-explainer-intl/index.html) ). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it ( [Ethiopian Constitution] (https://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/et00000_.html) , see Article 93). 243 244
72 Between 13 November 2020 and 12 February 2021, will the closing price per barrel of WTI crude oil be higher than the closing price per barrel of Brent crude oil? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1839-between-13-november-2020-and-12-february-2021-will-the-closing-price-per-barrel-of-wti-crude-oil-be-higher-than-the-closing-price-per-barrel-of-brent-crude-oil Good Judgment Open true 0% West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is a benchmark price for oil in the U.S., while Brent is a benchmark price for oil from the North Sea ( [Investopedia] (https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/052615/what-difference-between-brent-crude-and-west-texas-intermediate.asp) ). The spread, or difference, between the price of the two is an important metric in energy markets ( [Oil Price] (https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Big-Oil-Price-Gamble-US-Producers-Cut-Back-On-Hedging.html) , [CME Group] (https://www.cmegroup.com/education/whitepapers/worldwide-oil-wti-brent-spread.html) ). The outcome will be determined using futures prices as provided by Bloomberg (WTI: [Bloomberg - WTI] (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CL1:COM) , Brent: [Bloomberg - Brent] (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CO1:COM) ). 251 254
73 When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-region Good Judgment Open false none The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization ( [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard] (https://covid19.who.int/) ). 225 231
74 Will the People's Republic of China (PRC) officially declare an air-defense identification zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1832-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-officially-declare-an-air-defense-identification-zone-adiz-over-any-part-of-the-south-china-sea-before-1-march-2021 Good Judgment Open true 5% In recent years, there has been speculation that China would declare an ADIZ over the South China Sea ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/south-east-asian-countries-are-trapped-between-two-superpowers) ,  [National Interest] (https://nationalinterest.org/feature/will-china-set-air-defense-identification-zone-south-china-sea-160896) , [CNN] (https://www.cnn.com/2016/07/13/asia/south-china-sea-ruling-reaction-adiz/) ). An extension of the existing East China Sea ADIZ to cover part of the South China Sea would count. For more information on air defense identification zones and the conflict in the South China Sea, see: [Defense.info] (https://defense.info/global-dynamics/2020/08/will-china-declare-an-air-defense-identification-zone-in-south-china-sea/) , [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/china/2020/06/17/chinas-next-move-in-the-south-china-sea) , [Inquirer.net] (https://globalnation.inquirer.net/188899/china-plan-to-control-south-china-sea-airspace-dangerous-says-lorenzana) . 355 361
75 Between 9 November 2020 and 28 February 2021, will a country cease to formally recognize Taiwan? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1831-between-9-november-2020-and-28-february-2021-will-a-country-cease-to-formally-recognize-taiwan Good Judgment Open true 2% In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC ( [Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs] (https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&amp;sms=A76B7230ADF29736) ). Two countries in Oceania, the Solomon Islands and Kiribati, were the countries to most recently cease to recognize the ROC ( [Newsweek] (https://www.newsweek.com/who-recognizes-taiwan-two-change-china-1460559) ). 440 450
76 Will Russia and the People's Republic of China (PRC) conduct any joint naval exercises before 1 March 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1833-will-russia-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-conduct-any-joint-naval-exercises-before-1-march-2021 Good Judgment Open true 95% Russia and China have engaged in joint naval exercises in the past, both bilaterally and with other nations ( [Diplomat] (https://thediplomat.com/2019/04/china-russia-kick-off-bilateral-naval-exercise-joint-sea/) , [CNN] (https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/27/asia/china-russia-iran-military-drills-intl-hnk/index.html) ). Both Russia and the PRC conducting joint naval exercises with one or more other navies would also count. NOTE 13 November 2020: The joint exercises must include both Russia and China to count. 368 377
77 When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 35 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the Europe Region? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1834-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-35-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-europe-region Good Judgment Open false none Europe’s “second wave” of COVID-19 has increased concerns regarding the impact of the disease on the continent ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/11/07/the-second-wave-of-covid-19-has-sent-much-of-europe-back-into-lockdown) , [Guardian] (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/05/europes-second-wave-anger-in-italy-as-covid-restrictions-bite-across-continent) ). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization ( [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard] (https://covid19.who.int/) ). 371 375
78 At close of business on 17 March 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 27 January 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1824-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-27-january-2021 Good Judgment Open false none The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ( [Federal Reserve] (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) ). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 16-17 March 2021. 134 138
79 Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authority Good Judgment Open true Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas finds himself under increased pressure as Arab states improve ties with Israel and political rivals jockey for position ( [Middle East Monitor] (https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201027-the-growing-calls-to-replace-the-palestinian-leadership/) , [Times of Israel] (https://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-slams-israel-sudan-deal-no-one-can-speak-on-behalf-of-palestinians/) , [Foreign Policy] (https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/30/mohammed-dahlan-uae-palestinians-israel/) ). 168 171
80 Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws Good Judgment Open true 3% 2% As Amazon has grown it has received increased scrutiny, and there have been calls for it to spin off its cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS) ( [Medium] (https://medium.com/swlh/should-amazon-spin-off-aws-e15d6e307506) , [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/former-amazon-senior-engineer-calls-for-aws-spinoff.html) , [Vox] (https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/10/6/21505027/congress-big-tech-antitrust-report-facebook-google-amazon-apple-mark-zuckerberg-jeff-bezos-tim-cook) , [Investopedia] (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinoff.asp) ). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question. 247 253
81 Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019 Good Judgment Open true 95% Apple's iPhone net sales have fluctuated over the years, and as of October 2020 Apple has begun to sell the new iPhone 12 and its variants ( [Apple] (https://www.apple.com/iphone/) ). Industry analysts speculate whether 5G capability will bolster declining iPhone sales or if the pandemic's global impact on supply chains and expendable income will hinder iPhone sales ( [9 to 5 Mac] (https://9to5mac.com/2019/11/25/iphone-12-5g-demand/) , [ABS-CBN] (https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/10/14/20/in-china-apples-5g-iphone-12-sparks-fever-pitch-but-divided-reaction) ). Apple Inc.'s Fiscal Year (FY) annual report for 2021 is expected by early November 2021 at https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx under the "Annual Reports on Form 10-K" section. For FY 2020, Apple reported net iPhone sales of $137.781 billion, compared to $142.381 billion in FY 2019 ( [Apple 10-K (2020)] (https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/7b5717ca-6222-48e6-801c-9ea28feeef86.pdf) , see page 21). 234 238
82 How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021 Good Judgment Open false none As of 23 October 2020, 3 countries have more than one hundred thousand deaths from COVID-19: the U.S., Brazil, and India ( [France24] (https://www.france24.com/en/20201003-india-s-covid-19-death-toll-tops-100-000-behind-us-and-brazil) ). The outcome of this question will be determined using data reported by the World Health Organization at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 April 2021 ( [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard] (https://covid19.who.int/) ). 1018 1036
83 Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021 Good Judgment Open true 2% 1% Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha faces an array of challenges, including calls for him to resign and protests in the streets of Bangkok against the actions of the monarchy ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54573349) , [Deutsche Welle] (https://www.dw.com/en/thailand-pm-refuses-to-step-down-as-protesters-defy-police/a-55301495) , [CNN] (https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/19/asia/thailand-weekend-protests-monarchy-intl-hnk/index.html) ). 236 241
84 Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir Good Judgment Open true 5% 4% Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have escalated over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people ( [Al-Monitor] (https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/egypt-ethiopia-sudan-talks-stalled-nile-dam.html) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53432948) , [Foreign Policy] (https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/28/renaissance-dam-ethiopia-egypt-negotiations/) ). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council ( [Egypt Today] (https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/88770/Egypt-refers-GERD-issue-to-UN-Security-Council) , [UN] (https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14232.doc.htm) ). 166 169
85 Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1818-between-16-october-2020-and-31-december-2021-how-many-successful-flight-tests-of-the-common-hypersonic-glide-body-c-hgb-will-the-united-states-conduct Good Judgment Open false none The U.S., China, Russia, and other countries are working to develop hypersonic weapons ( [Federation of American Scientists] (https://fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/R45811.pdf) , [ScienceMag.org] (https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/national-pride-stake-russia-china-united-states-race-build-hypersonic-weapons) , [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/19/magazine/hypersonic-missiles.html) ). The U.S. Army and Navy collaborated on and successfully tested the C-HGB in March 2020 and are looking to conduct further flight tests in 2021 ( [Defense News] (https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/smd/2020/08/05/heres-how-the-dod-plans-to-meet-its-ambitious-hypersonic-missile-test-schedule/) ). A flight test will be considered “successful” if the U.S. military announces that the C-HGB reaches its designated impact point ( [Defense News] (https://www.defensenews.com/smr/army-modernization/2020/03/20/pentagons-major-hypersonic-glide-body-flight-test-deemed-success/) ). NOTE 29 October 2020: The simultaneous successful testing of two C-HGBs would count as two tests. 130 132
86 Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022 Good Judgment Open true 99% Boom Technology recently unveiled the XB-1, a one-third scale prototype of its future Overture supersonic airliner, and plans to test fly it for the first time in 2021 ( [Boom Supersonic] (https://boom-press-assets.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Boom-Supersonic-XB1-Rollout-Press-Release.pdf) , [BoomSupersonic.com] (https://boomsupersonic.com) , [Flight Global] (https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/boom-rolls-out-xb-1-supersonic-demonstrator-lays-out-overture-timeline/140513.article) ). For the purposes of this question, a test flight would be deemed successful if the aircraft takes off and lands.  120 121
87 When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-states Good Judgment Open false none Travel from the U.S. to Canada for discretionary reasons (non-essential), such as for tourism, recreation or entertainment, is currently prohibited due to COVID-19 ( [Government of Canada] (https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/services/covid/non-canadians-canadiens-eng.html) , [U.S. Embassy - Canada] (https://ca.usembassy.gov/travel-restrictions-fact-sheet/) , [Bloomberg] (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-08/canada-will-pitch-safe-tourism-to-travelers-once-borders-open) ). Permitting discretionary travel for one or more points of entry from the U.S. to Canada would count. 408 412
88 For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states Good Judgment Open true 10% The outcome of this question will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 ( [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard] (https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us) ). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 305,412 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question. 539 543
89 What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021 Good Judgment Open false none As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard ( [LMTonline] (https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php) , [Real Estate Weekly] (https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/) , [Commercial Property Executive] (https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/) ). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 ( [FRED] (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS) ). 220 222
90 What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1799-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-housing-starts-for-april-2021 Good Judgment Open false none The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, will likely be impacted by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, fires in the western United States straining the lumber industry, and record-low mortgage rates ( [Morningstar] (https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202009175758/us-housing-starts-slip-in-august) , [KATU] (https://katu.com/news/following-the-money/timber-industry-hit-hard-by-fires-will-have-generational-impact) ). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for April 2021, typically in May ( [FRED] (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST) ). For April 2020, housing starts totaled 0.934 million. 344 347
91 When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1801-when-will-lebanon-s-parliament-give-a-vote-of-confidence-to-a-new-government Good Judgment Open false none Mustapha Adib, who was chosen to form a government after the previous one had been toppled following a massive explosion in Beirut in early August 2020, resigned on 26 September 2020, citing tensions among the various political groups in the country ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54307896) , [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/12/21/why-lebanon-struggles-to-form-governments) , [France24] (https://www.france24.com/en/20200927-live-france-s-macron-speaks-about-lebanon-s-crisis-after-pm-designate-quits) , [AP] (https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-beirut-emmanuel-macron-lebanon-financial-markets-257abf1fd90d95ef27f8344204be30e3) ). 344 358
92 Before 1 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation at sea between the forces of India and the People's Republic of China? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1795-before-1-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-at-sea-between-the-forces-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china Good Judgment Open true 0% A violent clash in mid-June 2020 between soldiers along a disputed stretch of border between India and China left at least 20 dead, sparking concerns over continued escalation of tensions between the two neighbors ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53061476) , [Washington Post] (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/why-chinese-and-indian-troops-are-clashing-again/2020/09/02/0c1f5f90-ed01-11ea-bd08-1b10132b458f_story.html) , [Fox News] (https://www.foxnews.com/world/china-india-shots-fired-border-dispute) , [Wall Street Journal] (https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-seeks-naval-edge-as-china-penetrates-indian-ocean-11600945203) ). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one or more fatalities of the forces-the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement officials-of either side. For the purposes of this question, "at sea" means any territorial or international waters and the airspace above them. NOTE 29 September 2020: Pangong Tso/Pangong Lake would not be considered to be "at sea." 378 379
93 In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutional Good Judgment Open true 97% In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents ( [Oyez] (https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/19-123) ). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech ( [Ballotpedia] (https://ballotpedia.org/Fulton_v._City_of_Philadelphia,_Pennsylvania) ). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City ( [Third Circuit Court of Appeals] (http://www2.ca3.uscourts.gov/opinarch/182574p.pdf) , [SCOTUSblog] (https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/) ). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." 193 195
94 Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021 Good Judgment Open true 2% Erdoğan is embroiled in several controversies in the region, including active engagement in the Libyan civil war, oil &amp; gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems despite warnings from the U.S. and NATO ( [Al Jazeera] (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/turkey-illegitimate-haftar-withdraw-key-libya-areas-200722160827376.html) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53906360) , [Defense News] (https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2020/08/12/congress-has-secretly-blocked-us-arms-sales-to-turkey-for-nearly-two-years/) ). 346 351
95 Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from Good Judgment Open false none The 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on 29 May 2021 ( [UEFA] (https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/025e-0fac7ce8f2d4-6d86444e8807-1000--2020-21-all-you-need-to-know/) , [UEFA (Clubs)] (https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/clubs/) ). 233 238
96 When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788-when-will-25-000-or-more-fans-next-attend-a-premier-league-match Good Judgment Open false none Fans in the UK have been restricted from sporting events due to the coronavirus, and there is uncertainty about when they can return in large numbers ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/sport/54094363) , [Sky Sports] (https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/12069059/coronavirus-premier-league-concerned-by-delays-to-fans-return) , [Goal] (https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/will-there-be-fans-at-premier-league-matches-in-2020-21-when/1sz2evfoff4101efeqoy9hmppq) , [Premier League] (https://www.premierleague.com/fixtures) ). 557 559
97 Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom Good Judgment Open true 8% Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down ( [Britannica] (https://www.britannica.com/biography/Boris-Johnson) ). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU ( [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/brexit-and-covid-19-show-up-the-disunited-kingdom) ,  [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54156419) , [Independent] (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-coronavirus-self-isolating-labour-covid-19-symptoms-b435681.html) ). 935 946
98 Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021 Good Judgment Open true 5% CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ( [FEMA] (https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf) ). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ( [Cornell] (https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331) ). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State ( [State.gov] (https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/) ). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. 340 343
99 Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782-will-any-2020-california-election-results-be-altered-by-a-cyberattack-against-a-voting-system Good Judgment Open true 0% Cyberattacks against voting systems in the 2020 elections are an object of continuing concern, including in California ( [Washington Post] (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russian-hackers-who-disrupted-2016-election-targeting-political-parties-again-microsoft-says/2020/09/10/301dd5fe-f36c-11ea-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html) , [CBS SF BayArea] (https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/09/08/san-mateo-co-voter-registrar-working-with-state-feds-to-repel-hackers-foreign-cyberattacks/) , [California AB 2125] (https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180AB2125) , [National Conference of State Legislatures] (https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/post-election-audits635926066.aspx) ). A relevant cyberattack against a federal, state, or local election system that changes vote totals and/or an election outcome for California would count. For purposes of this question, "voting system" is a system as defined by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission ( [U.S. Election Assistance Commission] (https://www.eac.gov/voting-system) ). This question will resolve based on available evidence no later than 1 May 2021. 289 292
100 Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021 Good Judgment Open true 26% 25% CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ( [FEMA] (https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf) ). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, "terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ( [Cornell] (https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331) ). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. 561 571
101 When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-day Good Judgment Open false none Commercial air travel in the U.S. is increasing, but still remains much lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic ( [CNN] (https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/tsa-checkpoint-numbers-new-pandemic-high/index.html) ). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA ( [TSA] (https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput) ). The TSA last screened two million or more travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020. 686 693
102 In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-system Good Judgment Open true 92% To implement its Android operating system, “Google copied 11,500 lines of Oracle’s original, human-readable computer source code, as well as the intricate structure and organization of 37 large packages of computer programs” ( [Supremecourt.gov] (https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-956/93436/20190327160337558_190311%20for%20E-Filing.pdf) ). Oracle sued Google for copyright infringement and the issue has reached the Supreme Court ( [Oyez] (https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/18-956) , [SCOTUSblog] (https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/google-llc-v-oracle-america-inc/) , [Lexology] (https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=ecf5cd6d-2b66-4240-b5d9-efab3c581830) , [ZDNet] (https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-vs-oracle-the-next-chapter/) ). Whether the Supreme Court rules on Google’s copying of Oracle’s code being fair use or not is immaterial to the resolution of this question. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." 186 187
103 In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774-in-california-v-texas-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-reducing-the-penalty-amount-for-the-individual-mandate-of-the-affordable-care-act-aca-to-zero-rendered-the-individual-mandate-provision-unconstitutional Good Judgment Open true 0% After the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the ACA in NFIB v. Sibelius, Congress subsequently reduced the penalty for failing to acquire health insurance to $0 ( [Kaiser Family Foundation] (https://www.kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/explaining-texas-v-u-s-a-guide-to-the-case-challenging-the-aca/) , [Law.cornell.edu] (https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/5000A) (see §(3)(A)), [The Hill] (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/365785-congress-repeals-obamacare-mandate-fulfilling-longtime-gop-goal) ). Texas sued to have the ACA declared unconstitutional and prevailed in both District Court and the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ( [Politico] (https://static.politico.com/17/86/6721f2eb435fb2512430e54c2904/220.pdf) , [Casetext] (https://casetext.com/case/texas-v-united-states-31) ). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." 304
104 Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics Good Judgment Open true 5% Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history ( [Montreal Gazette] (https://montrealgazette.com/sports/montreal-olympics-african-boycott-of-1976-games-changed-the-world) , [Dept. of State] (https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/qfp/104481.htm) , [History.com] (https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/soviets-announce-boycott-of-1984-olympics) ). Some groups are calling on nations to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics due to China's treatment of its Uighur population ( [Daily Sabah] (https://www.dailysabah.com/world/asia-pacific/rights-group-criticizes-ioc-over-uighurs-issue-in-china) , [Politico] (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/25/trump-administration-china-genocide-uighurs-401581) , [Olympic.org] (https://www.olympic.org/beijing-2022) ). 503 507
105 How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021 Good Judgment Open false none The Arab League consists of 22 member states ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-15747941) , [CNN] (https://www.cnn.com/2013/07/30/world/meast/arab-league-fast-facts/index.html) , [Arab League] (http://www.lasportal.org/Pages/Welcome.aspx) ). As of 28 August 2020, three members other than Palestine--Egypt, Jordan, and recently the United Arab Emirates--diplomatically recognize Israel, though others could follow ( [France24] (https://www.france24.com/en/20200824-after-uae-israel-deal-which-arab-nation-will-next-forge-ties) , [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/08/22/the-arab-countries-most-likely-to-recognise-israel) , [Whitehouse.gov] (https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-united-states-state-israel-united-arab-emirates/) ). A suspended Arab League member diplomatically recognizing Israel would count ( [Guardian] (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/nov/12/syria-suspended-arab-league) ). NOTE 2 September 2020: The question is framed "as of," so Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE would count toward resolution so long as they diplomatically recognize Israel as of 28 August 2021. NOTE 14 December 2020: As of the date of this clarification (14 December 2020), for the purposes of this question, the October announcement on the normalization of relations between Sudan and Israel constitutes Sudan diplomatically recognizing the State of Israel. 445 447
106 When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1762-when-will-the-eu-amend-its-own-resources-decision-to-help-finance-the-eu-s-proposed-covid-19-recovery-package Good Judgment Open false none As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the "Next Generation EU" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed ( [European Council] (https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/45109/210720-euco-final-conclusions-en.pdf) , [European Parliament] (https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-new-boost-for-jobs-growth-and-investment/file-mff-post-2020-own-resources) , [European Commission] (https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_20_935) ). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements ( [Ernst &amp; Young] (https://taxnews.ey.com/news/2020-1869-european-council-adopts-conclusions-on-recovery-plan-and-eu-budget-for-2021-2027-including-agreement-on-introduction-of-new-taxes) , [European Commission] (https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_20_1024) ). The question would resolve upon the last Member State approving the amendment. When the amended Own Resources Decision would take effect is immaterial. 191 196
107 How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1760-how-many-cybertrucks-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022 Good Judgment Open false none Tesla recently announced it will manufacture the Cybertruck at its new factory location in Austin, TX ( [Digital Trends] (https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-cybertruck-price-interior-release-date-specs-news/) , [The Verge] (https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/22/21334860/tesla-cybertruck-factory-austin-texas-location-model-y) , [Teslarati] (https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-gigafactory-austin-texas-video/) , [Inverse] (https://www.inverse.com/innovation/61141-tesla-cybertruck-pics-price) ). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. 315 317
108 Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-service Good Judgment Open false none In late June 2020, Amazon acquired self-driving technology company Zoox for approximately $1.3 billion ( [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/amazon-spending-1-billion-on-zoox-will-have-to-invest-billions-more.html) , [Forbes] (https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/07/16/amazon-zoox-deal-details-leak-and-hint-at-expensive-acquihire/#50676c1d4ec2) ). While Amazon has framed the acquisition as a move into ride-hailing, there is speculation that the move could lead to greater automation of package deliveries ( [Amazon] (https://blog.aboutamazon.com/company-news/were-acquiring-zoox-to-help-bring-their-vision-of-autonomous-ride-hailing-to-reality) , [India Times] (https://www.indiatimes.com/auto/alternative/amazon-zoox-robo-delivery-518186.html) , [Forbes] (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidsilver/2020/07/03/autonomous-delivery-will-reduce-the-cost-of-residential-package-delivery/#77928f2f4844) ). An autonomous vehicle with a backup driver would count for resolution. A public ride-hailing service does not need to involve payment to count for resolution. 227 235
109 Before 14 February 2021, will former King Juan Carlos I and/or former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont return to Spain? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1740-before-14-february-2021-will-former-king-juan-carlos-i-and-or-former-catalan-president-carles-puigdemont-return-to-spain Good Judgment Open false none Former King Juan Carlos I of Spain has reportedly left Spain in light of recent controversies, while former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont has continued living abroad in exile following the 2017 independence referendum that the Spanish government declared to be illegal ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53710555) , [CatalanNews] (https://www.catalannews.com/politics/item/carles-puigdemont-elected-jxcat-president-with-99-3-of-votes) , [AP] (https://apnews.com/4f40dee005924aab99670da40122309e) ). 239 242
110 Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1744-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-debut-a-passenger-vehicle-powered-by-a-solid-state-battery Good Judgment Open false none Recent advances in battery technology, particularly solid-state batteries, could give rise to a new generation of electric vehicles ( [Car and Driver] (https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a31409442/samsung-solid-state-battery-revealed/) , [Electrek] (https://electrek.co/2020/04/23/work-on-goodenoughs-breakthrough-solid-state-ev-battery-moves-forward/)) . Some companies have announced plans to debut such vehicles, even if not necessarily for mass production yet ( [Road/Show] (https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/toyota-solid-state-battery-electric-olympics/) , [Digital Trends] (https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/toyota-may-introduce-solid-state-batteries-for-electric-cars-by-2020/) ). For examples of vehicle debuts, see: [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/gms-push-to-compete-with-tesla-begins-with-cadillac-lyriq-crossover-debut-thursday.html) , [Axios] (https://www.axios.com/tesla-debuts-first-electric-pickup-truck-cee48fef-fccc-4390-bdc5-1dfede8a8a3e.html) . For the purposes of this question, "major automakers" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ( [OICA] (http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf) ). A vehicle would not need to be solely powered by solid-state batteries to count. NOTE 20 August 2020: For purposes of this question, for a vehicle to be considered "powered" by a solid-state battery it must be propelled, at least in part, by the use of a solid-state battery NOTE 2 October 2020:  For purposes of this question, a "passenger vehicle" is a motor vehicle with at least four wheels, used for the transport of passengers, and comprising no more than eight seats in addition to the driver's seat (http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/stats-definition1.pdf). 239 244
111 When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america Good Judgment Open false none As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States ( [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/spacex-starlink-satellte-production-now-120-per-month.html) , [TechCrunch] (https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/15/leak-reveals-details-of-spacexs-starlink-internet-service-beta-program/) , [Starlink] (https://www.starlink.com/) ). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta. 485 488
112 Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month Good Judgment Open true 2% Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806) , [World Meteorological Organization] (https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate) , [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338) ). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ( [NOAA] (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/) ). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ( [NOAA - June 2020 Report] (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006) ). Confused? Check our  [FAQ] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)  or  [ask us for help] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#62010e03100b040b0103160b0d0c1122050d0d06081706050f070c164c010d0f5d111700080701165f33170711160b0d0c475052210e03100b040b0103160b0d0c) . To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,  [click here] (https://goodjudgment.com/) . 258 262
113 Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used Good Judgment Open true 10% In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ( [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y) ). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ( [The Atlantic] (https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/) , [Brookings Institute] (https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/) ). Confused? Check our  [FAQ] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)  or  [ask us for help] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#d9bab5b8abb0bfb0bab8adb0b6b7aa99beb6b6bdb3acbdbeb4bcb7adf7bab6b4e6aaacbbb3bcbaade488acbcaaadb0b6b7fcebe99ab5b8abb0bfb0bab8adb0b6b7) . To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,  [click here] (https://goodjudgment.com/) . 544 546
114 Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s Good Judgment Open false none Legal liability for accidents involving self-driving vehicles and features allowing autonomous driving continue to evolve ( [Ars Technica] (https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/06/tesla-driver-blames-autopilot-for-crash-into-police-car/) ,  [ABC News] (https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-agency-eyes-fatal-crash-involving-driving-car-66374234) ,  [NY Times] (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/technology/uber-self-driving-car-arizona.html) ,  [Centre for International Governance Innovation] (https://www.cigionline.org/articles/who-responsible-when-autonomous-systems-fail) ). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question. This question is the longer-term companion of question  [#1695] (https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1695-between-10-july-and-31-december-2020-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s) . The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other. NOTE 13 November 2020: For the purposes of this question, to "face criminal charges" is to be criminally charged, irrespective of any future scheduled trial. Charges filed in 2020 or earlier against a person or firm who/that continues to be criminally charged in 2021 or beyond would not count toward the resolution of this question (2021-2022) unless they/it were criminally charged in relation to a different criminal offense. 206 212
115 How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1698-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2021-and-2022-combined Good Judgment Open false none Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past ( [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-autos-electric-subsidies/china-to-cut-new-energy-vehicle-subsidies-by-10-this-year-idUSKCN225177) ,  [Shine.cn] (https://www.shine.cn/biz/auto/2006089801/) ,  [CNBC] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/electric-cars-take-the-spotlight-in-chinas-post-coronavirus-stimulus-plans.html) ,  [Inside EVs] (https://insideevs.com/news/428471/china-market-sales-may-2020-nev/) ). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million ( [Caam.org] (http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/4/cate_154/con_5228367.html)  [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g.,  [Caam.org.cn - Automotive Statistics] (http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/21/cate_463/list_1.html) ,  [Caam.org.cn] (http://www.caam.org.cn/)  [in Chinese],  [Caam.org.cn] (http://www.caam.org.cn/english)  [in English],  [China Daily] (https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/14/WS5e1cfea2a310128217270a2c.html) ). This question is the longer-term companion of question  [#1697] (https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1697-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2020) . The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other. 193 198
116 How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1678-how-many-public-dc-fast-charge-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-united-states-by-31-december-2022 Good Judgment Open false none The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is subject to a "chicken and egg" problem such that potential consumers are waiting for an extensive charging network and businesses are awaiting more electric cars on the roads to justify building more charging stations. This problem is especially relevant for DC fast charge stations that can fully charge the EV in less than 30 minutes ( [MY EV] (https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-sellers-advice/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-dc-fast-charging) ). The outcome will be determined using data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 31 December 2022 at 5:00PM ET ( [Alternative Fuels Data Center] (https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC) ). Data on public DC fast charge stations can be found by selecting the "Advanced Filters" tab.  First select "Location" on the left and set "Country" to be "United States" while keeping "State/Territory" to be "All." Then select "Fuel" on the left. Under "Filter by Fuel Type" select "Electric" and set "Charger types" to be only "DC Fast" while keeping "Connectors" and "Networks" to be "All." 186 191
117 How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021 Good Judgment Open false none The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ( [CNN] (https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html) , [Scientific American] (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/) , [Lancet] (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext) ). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ( [Africa CDC] (https://africacdc.org/covid-19/) ). Check our  [FAQ] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)  or  [ask us for help] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#0f6c636e7d6669666c6e7b6660617c4f6860606b657a6b68626a617b216c6062307c7a6d656a6c7b325e7a6a7c7b6660612a3d3f4c636e7d6669666c6e7b666061) . To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,  [click here] (https://goodjudgment.com/) . 941 958
118 Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled Good Judgment Open false none Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ( [ESPN] (https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021) , [Olympic Games] (https://tokyo2020.org/en/) , [Paralympic Games] (https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/) ). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ( [BBC] (https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797) ). Postponement(s) alone would not count. Check our  [FAQ] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)  or  [ask us for help] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#aac9c6cbd8c3ccc3c9cbdec3c5c4d9eacdc5c5cec0dfcecdc7cfc4de84c9c5c795d9dfc8c0cfc9de97fbdfcfd9dec3c5c48f989ae9c6cbd8c3ccc3c9cbdec3c5c4) . To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,  [click here] (https://goodjudgment.com/) . 1156 1170
119 Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law Good Judgment Open true 75% Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ( [The Hill] (https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation) ,  [Federation of American Scientists] (https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf) ,  [Congress.gov (House Bill)] (https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388) ,  [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)] (https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885) ). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a "bump in the road" ( [The Hill] (https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic) ,  [Legal Reader] (https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/) ). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial. This question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided. Check our  [FAQ] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)  or  [ask us for help] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#e88b84899a818e818b899c8187869ba88f87878c829d8c8f858d869cc68b8785d79b9d8a828d8b9cd5b99d8d9b9c818786cddad8ab84899a818e818b899c818786) . To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,  [click here] (https://goodjudgment.com/) . 220 221
120 Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021 Good Judgment Open true 5% Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ( [CNN] (https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html) , [Center for Strategic and International Studies] (https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/) , [Council on Foreign Relations] (https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea) , [Diplomat] (https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/) ). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side. Check our  [FAQ] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)  or  [ask us for help] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#c6a5aaa7b4afa0afa5a7b2afa9a8b586a1a9a9a2acb3a2a1aba3a8b2e8a5a9abf9b5b3a4aca3a5b2fb97b3a3b5b2afa9a8e3f4f685aaa7b4afa0afa5a7b2afa9a8) . To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,  [click here] (https://goodjudgment.com/) . 884 900
121 How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022 Good Judgment Open false none Adding to ongoing Model 3 car deliveries, Tesla began Model Y SUV deliveries ahead of schedule during the first quarter of 2020 ( [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-sees-strong-model-y-production-deliveries-shares-rise-idUSKBN21K3A3) ). Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q1 2020 totaled 76,266 ( [Tesla] (https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795) ). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. 255 258
122 How many total Fast Charge (&gt;22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022 Good Judgment Open false none The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a "chicken and egg" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations ( [Smart Energy International] (https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/electric-vehicles/european-countries-with-fastest-ev-charger-adoption-revealed/) , [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM) ). Europe has gone from zero Fast Charger locations in 2011 to 15,136 as of 2019. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory ( [EAFO] (https://www.eafo.eu/alternative-fuels/electricity/charging-infra-stats) ) for all of 2022, via the graph "Normal and Fast Public Charging Points (2022)" when the filter for "Charger type" is set to "Fast (&gt;22kW)" and the filters at the top of the page are set to "European Union" and "2022". 249 250
123 Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel Good Judgment Open false none Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ( [NHTSA] (https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety) , [U.S. News] (https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/) ). For the purposes of this question, "major automakers" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ( [OICA] (http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf) ). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count. Check our  [FAQ] (https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)  or  [ask us for help] (/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#a9cac5c8dbc0cfc0cac8ddc0c6c7dae9cec6c6cdc3dccdcec4ccc7dd87cac6c496dadccbc3cccadd94f8dcccdaddc0c6c78c9b99eac5c8dbc0cfc0cac8ddc0c6c7) . To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting,  [click here] (https://goodjudgment.com/) . 360 361
124 Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-european-union-delay-and-or-relax-the-implementation-and-or-enforcement-of-any-of-its-co2-emission-performance-standards-for-new-passenger-cars-and-or-new-light-commercial-vehicles Good Judgment Open true 3% 2% Due to impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the auto industry in the EU is seeking relief from CO2 emission performance standards regulations ( [European Automobile Manufacturers Association] (https://www.acea.be/news/article/covid-19-auto-sector-letter-to-von-der-leyen) ,  [Europa] (https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regulation_en) ,  [Electrive] (https://www.electrive.com/2020/03/30/european-car-industry-lobby-groups-question-co2-targets-in-the-face-of-covid19/) ). For more information on EU CO2 emission performance standards, see  [REGULATION (EU) 2019/631] (https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32019R0631) , particularly Article 4 and the annexes. The date a change would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question. 171 174
125 What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1583-what-will-be-the-2022-industry-wide-average-cost-of-li-ion-batteries-used-in-battery-powered-electric-vehicles Good Judgment Open false none Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&amp;D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines ( [Clean Technica] (https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/12/teslas-advantage-with-its-battery-technology-low-cost/) ,  [Financial Times] (https://www.ft.com/content/8441929c-5e43-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4) ). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2022, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a  [2015 Nature Climate Change study] (https://mediamanager.sei.org/documents/Publications/SEI-Nature-pre-pub-2015-falling-costs-battery-packs-BEVs.pdf) . The Mack Institute found that there was "a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2019 was US$ 161 per kWh" ( [The Mack Institute] (https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2020/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/) ). 232 233
126 What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1582-what-total-percentage-of-global-vehicle-sales-in-2022-will-be-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-and-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-phevs Good Judgment Open false none Climate change and other environmental concerns continue to drive a greater focus on electric vehicles ( [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM) , [NASDAQ] (https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/oil-prices-are-tumbling-but-global-electric-vehicles-will-be-just-fine-says-ubs-2020-03-11) , [CSP] (https://www.cspdailynews.com/fuels/what-global-economic-slump-means-evs) , [IEA] (https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019) ). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using open source data provided by [EV-volumes.com] (http://www.ev-volumes.com/) for 2022, expected to be released in early 2023. The global BEV &amp; PHEV share for 2019 was 2.5% ( [EV-volumes.com] (http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/) ). In the event that the relevant data for 2022 are not available from EV-volumes.com in 2023, this question will be resolved using data from other credible automotive industry sources. 350 355
127 Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1411-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-that-caps-administrative-fees-and-or-operating-profits-of-the-country-s-pension-fund-managers Good Judgment Open true 1% Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ( [Financial Times] (https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a) , [AP] (https://apnews.com/31ab8e9f5b9a467abdda53616edc72c2) , [IPE] (https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle) , [El Universal] (https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/mundo/diez-puntos-para-entender-el-sistema-de-pensiones-que-no-quieren-los-chilenos) [in Spanish]). A constitutional amendment to the same effect would count. Legislation enabling or delegating new regulatory authority to cap administrative fees and/or operating profits would count. Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1417, which closes in 2020 ( [Question #1417] (https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1417) ). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates. 255
128 Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets? https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1412-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-nationalizing-private-pension-fund-assets Good Judgment Open true 2% 1% Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for the reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ( [Reuters] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chile-protests-pensions/chiles-fiery-anger-fueled-by-fears-of-poverty-in-old-age-idUSKBN1XB3U8) , [IPE] (https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle) , [Economist] (https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2019/06/08/chile-tinkers-with-its-ground-breaking-pensions-system) , [Economist Intelligence Unit] (https://www.eiu.com/industry/article/1898259973/chiles-pension-reform-makes-progress/2019-07-23) , [Financial Times] (https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a) ). Examples of nationalization include, but are not limited to, the enactment of legislation compelling the divestiture or transfer of privately held pension funds to a public entity or the state, or a constitutional amendment to the same effect. The date or dates of actual asset nationalization would be immaterial. Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1418, which closes in 2020 ( [Question #1418] (https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1418) ). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates. 286 288
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"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts"
"In 2021, will Donald Trump be barred from holding future elected office in the USA?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind",true,"22.52%",
"Will Kamala Harris be the first woman to become president of the United States?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind",true,"63.89%",
"At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will the USA earn more medals than they ever did during Obama's presidency (121)?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind",true,"35.00%",
"In 2021, will Joe Biden invoke the Insurrection Act?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind",true,"5.00%",
"Who will be elected president of France in 2022?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind",false,"none",
"Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind",false,"none",
"In France, when will the first round of the regional elections take place?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind",false,"none",
"In France, when will the 7 day average of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 fall back below 5,000?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind",false,"none",
"At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will Japan or France earn more medals?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind",false,"none",
"Following the next parliamentary elections win Morocco, who will succeed Saad-Eddine El Othmani as prime minister?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind",false,"none",
"In Niger, who will win the (February) 2021 presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind",false,"none",
"In 2021, will Faustin-Archange Touadéra lose power in the Central African Republic?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind",true,"8.00%",
"In 2021, will Abdelmadjid Tebboune lose power in Algeria?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind",true,"8.00%",
"In January 2021, how many battle deaths will there be in the G5 Sahel countries?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind",true,"25.51%",
"In Congo, who will win the (March) 2021 presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind",false,"none",
"In Chad, who will win the (April) 2021 presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind",false,"none",
"In Somalia, who will win the (Feb) 2021 presidential election? ","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind",false,"none",
"When will worldwide commercial air traffic rise back above 100,000 flights per day?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind",false,"none",
"In 2021, who will succeed Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister of Israel?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind",false,"none",
"In 2021, how much will the arctic sea ice shrink?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind",false,"none",
"Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind",false,"none",
"When will the FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind",false,"none",
"Which threshold will gold prices (per ounce) reach first? ","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind",true,"44.55%",
"What will be the closing share price of GameStop (GME) on Feb. 26, 2021?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind",false,"none",
"Which threshold will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit first?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind",true,"53.92%",
"Which threshold will the French index CAC 40 hit first?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind",true,"59.00%",
"Will the new Bond film ""No Time to Die"" be released in 2021?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind",true,"94.00%",
"In 2021, will the Olympic Games take place?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind",true,"62.00%",
"What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q1 2021?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html","Hypermind",false,"none",
"What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2021?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html","Hypermind",false,"none",
"What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2022?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html","Hypermind",false,"none",
"As of April 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind",false,"none",
"As of July 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind",false,"none",
"As of October 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind",false,"none",
"When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 3 per million people?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind",false,"none",
"When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 1 per million people?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind",false,"none",
"When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 0.1 per million people?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind",false,"none",
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","Description","# Forecasts"
"In 2021, will Donald Trump be barred from holding future elected office in the USA?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind",true,"21.82%","
",
"Will Kamala Harris be the first woman to become president of the United States?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind",true,"63.89%","This question will settle when a woman becomes president of the United States of America.
",
"At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will the USA earn more medals than they ever did during Obama's presidency (121)?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind",true,"35.00%","While Barack Obama was president, the United States won: - 121 medals in 2016 - 104 medals in 2012 - 112 medals in 2008 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are canceled in 2021, this question will be resolved according to the medals obtained at the next Olympics.
",
"In 2021, will Joe Biden invoke the Insurrection Act?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind",true,"5.00%","The Insurrection Act is a United States federal law that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion. See: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807)
",
"Who will be elected president of France in 2022?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind",false,"none","
",
"Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind",false,"none","The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, ""Le Pen"" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen.
",
"In France, when will the first round of the regional elections take place?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind",false,"none","
",
"In France, when will the 7 day average of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 fall back below 5,000?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind",false,"none","This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World] (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World)
",
"At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will Japan or France earn more medals?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind",false,"none","24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are cancelled, or if they take place elsewhere than in Japan, the shares will be paid out at the following prices: France = 23 H Japan = 74 H Same = 3 H
",
"Following the next parliamentary elections win Morocco, who will succeed Saad-Eddine El Othmani as prime minister?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind",false,"none","Parliamentary elections are scheduled in September 2021. The PJD (Justice and Development Party) has been in power for the last ten years. Shall the party be renamed or splinter before the elections, any personality issued for its ranks before the renaming or split shall still be considered ""from PJD"".
",
"In Niger, who will win the (February) 2021 presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind",false,"none","The second round of the presidential election is scheduled on February 21, 2021.
",
"In 2021, will Faustin-Archange Touadéra lose power in the Central African Republic?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind",true,"8.00%","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Touadéra, president of the Central African Republic, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Touadéra has lost power before the end of the year (local time).
",
"In 2021, will Abdelmadjid Tebboune lose power in Algeria?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind",true,"8.00%","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Tebboune, president of Algeria, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Tebboune has lost power before the end of the year (local time).
",
"In January 2021, how many battle deaths will there be in the G5 Sahel countries?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind",true,"12.00%","This question will be judged according to the number of ""fatalities"" published by ACLED ( [http://www.acleddata.com] (http://www.acleddata.com) ) in the ""Battle"" category. A public dashboard with regular updates and historical data is available here: [https://acleddata.com/dashboard/#/dashboard] (https://acleddata.com/dashboard/#/dashboard)
",
"In Congo, who will win the (March) 2021 presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind",false,"none","A presidential election is planned on march 21, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.
",
"In Chad, who will win the (April) 2021 presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind",false,"none","A presidential election is planned on April 11, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.
",
"In Somalia, who will win the (Feb) 2021 presidential election? ","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind",false,"none","A presidential election is planned for February 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.
",
"When will worldwide commercial air traffic rise back above 100,000 flights per day?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind",false,"none","This question will be settled according to the data published by [Flightradar24.com] (https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) in the ""Number of commercial flights..."" chart.
",
"In 2021, who will succeed Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister of Israel?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind",false,"none","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Parliamentary elections are scheduled in March 2021.
",
"In 2021, how much will the arctic sea ice shrink?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind",false,"none","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the others will be worthless (0&Hopf;).
Follow daily updates of the arctic sea ice shrinkage with <a target=_new href='http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/'>this link</a>
",
"Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind",false,"none","Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September.
",
"When will the FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind",false,"none","
",
"Which threshold will gold prices (per ounce) reach first? ","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind",true,"42.57%","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the other will be worthless (0ℍ).
Follow godlier prices here: [https://www.monex.com/gold-prices/] (https://www.monex.com/gold-prices/)
",
"What will be the closing share price of GameStop (GME) on Feb. 26, 2021?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind",false,"none","Follow GameStop's stock price here: [https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/GME] (https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/GME)
",
"Which threshold will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit first?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind",true,"70.00%","This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the Dow Jones index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.
",
"Which threshold will the French index CAC 40 hit first?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind",true,"59.41%","This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the CAC 40 index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.
",
"Will the new Bond film ""No Time to Die"" be released in 2021?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind",true,"94.00%","On January 22, MGM pushed back the film's release to October 8, 2021... 23/01/21: It doesn't matter how the movie is released - online or in theaters - as long as it is via a distribution channel approved by MGM.
",
"In 2021, will the Olympic Games take place?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind",true,"73.53%","The Olympics Games are currently scheduled to start in Japan in July 2021... This question will resolve as ""Yes"" if the Olympic Games take place anywhere at anytime in 2021.
",
"What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q1 2021?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html","Hypermind",false,"none","This question compares 2021:Q1 to 2020:Q1. It should be read as: “What will be the Year-over-year growth rate in Q1 2021?""
The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q1, which will be published in the spring of 2021.
All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1:
https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey
The growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q1 and 2020:Q1 nominal GDP:
Growth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q1/2020:Q1 - 1)
Note that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent.
Finally, beware that the 2020:Q1 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2021:Q1 estimate.
",
"What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2021?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html","Hypermind",false,"none","This question compares 2021:Q4 to 2020:Q4.
The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q4 which will be published in 2022:Q1.
All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1:
https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey
The growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q4 and 2020:Q4 nominal GDP:
Growth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q4/2020:Q4 - 1)
Note that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent.
Finally, beware that the 2020:Q4 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2021:Q4 estimate.
",
"What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2022?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html","Hypermind",false,"none","This question compares 2022:Q4 to 2021:Q4.
The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2022:Q4, which will be published in 2023:Q1.
All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1:
https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey
The growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2022:Q4 and 2021:Q4 nominal GDP:
Growth Rate (%) = 100 * (2022:Q4/2021:Q4 - 1)
Note that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent.
Finally, beware that the 2021:Q4 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2022:Q14estimate.
",
"As of April 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind",false,"none","This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on April 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations] (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) .
For the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “compassionate use” counts as approval.
* Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on the source for this statistic used by Our World in Data. If Our World in Data does not track this statistic (as of Dec 26 2020 it does not), Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the FDA or credible reporting by major news publications.
",
"As of July 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind",false,"none","This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on July 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations] (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) .
For the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “compassionate use” counts as approval.
* Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on the source for this statistic used by Our World in Data. If Our World in Data does not track this statistic (as of Dec 26 2020 it does not), Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the FDA or credible reporting by major news publications.
",
"As of October 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind",false,"none","This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on October 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations] (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) .
For the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “compassionate use” counts as approval.
* Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on the source for this statistic used by Our World in Data. If Our World in Data does not track this statistic (as of Dec 26 2020 it does not), Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the FDA or credible reporting by major news publications.
",
"When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 3 per million people?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind",false,"none","This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published by Our World in Data here: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc
* Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.
",
"When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 1 per million people?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind",false,"none","This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published by Our World in Data here: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc
* Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.
",
"When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 0.1 per million people?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19","Hypermind",false,"none","This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published by Our World in Data here: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc
* Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.
",
1 Title URL Platform Binary question? Percentage Description # Forecasts
2 In 2021, will Donald Trump be barred from holding future elected office in the USA? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA Hypermind true 22.52% 21.82%
3 Will Kamala Harris be the first woman to become president of the United States? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA Hypermind true 63.89% This question will settle when a woman becomes president of the United States of America.
4 At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will the USA earn more medals than they ever did during Obama's presidency (121)? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA Hypermind true 35.00% While Barack Obama was president, the United States won: - 121 medals in 2016 - 104 medals in 2012 - 112 medals in 2008 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are canceled in 2021, this question will be resolved according to the medals obtained at the next Olympics.
5 In 2021, will Joe Biden invoke the Insurrection Act? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA Hypermind true 5.00% The Insurrection Act is a United States federal law that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion. See: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807)
6 Who will be elected president of France in 2022? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind false none
7 Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind false none The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, "Le Pen" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen.
8 In France, when will the first round of the regional elections take place? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind false none
9 In France, when will the 7 day average of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 fall back below 5,000? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind false none This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World] (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World)
10 At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will Japan or France earn more medals? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA Hypermind false none 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are cancelled, or if they take place elsewhere than in Japan, the shares will be paid out at the following prices: France = 23 H Japan = 74 H Same = 3 H
11 Following the next parliamentary elections win Morocco, who will succeed Saad-Eddine El Othmani as prime minister? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind false none Parliamentary elections are scheduled in September 2021. The PJD (Justice and Development Party) has been in power for the last ten years. Shall the party be renamed or splinter before the elections, any personality issued for its ranks before the renaming or split shall still be considered "from PJD".
12 In Niger, who will win the (February) 2021 presidential election? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind false none The second round of the presidential election is scheduled on February 21, 2021.
13 In 2021, will Faustin-Archange Touadéra lose power in the Central African Republic? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind true 8.00% Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Touadéra, president of the Central African Republic, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Touadéra has lost power before the end of the year (local time).
14 In 2021, will Abdelmadjid Tebboune lose power in Algeria? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind true 8.00% Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Tebboune, president of Algeria, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Tebboune has lost power before the end of the year (local time).
15 In January 2021, how many battle deaths will there be in the G5 Sahel countries? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind true 25.51% 12.00% This question will be judged according to the number of "fatalities" published by ACLED ( [http://www.acleddata.com] (http://www.acleddata.com) ) in the "Battle" category. A public dashboard with regular updates and historical data is available here: [https://acleddata.com/dashboard/#/dashboard] (https://acleddata.com/dashboard/#/dashboard)
16 In Congo, who will win the (March) 2021 presidential election? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind false none A presidential election is planned on march 21, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.
17 In Chad, who will win the (April) 2021 presidential election? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind false none A presidential election is planned on April 11, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.
18 In Somalia, who will win the (Feb) 2021 presidential election? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR Hypermind false none A presidential election is planned for February 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.
19 When will worldwide commercial air traffic rise back above 100,000 flights per day? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT Hypermind false none This question will be settled according to the data published by [Flightradar24.com] (https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) in the "Number of commercial flights..." chart.
20 In 2021, who will succeed Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister of Israel? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT Hypermind false none Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Parliamentary elections are scheduled in March 2021.
21 In 2021, how much will the arctic sea ice shrink? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT Hypermind false none Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the others will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Follow daily updates of the arctic sea ice shrinkage with <a target=_new href='http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/'>this link</a>
22 Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT Hypermind false none Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September.
23 When will the FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV Hypermind false none
24 Which threshold will gold prices (per ounce) reach first? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO Hypermind true 44.55% 42.57% Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the other will be worthless (0ℍ). Follow godlier prices here: [https://www.monex.com/gold-prices/] (https://www.monex.com/gold-prices/)
25 What will be the closing share price of GameStop (GME) on Feb. 26, 2021? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO Hypermind false none Follow GameStop's stock price here: [https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/GME] (https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/GME)
26 Which threshold will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit first? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO Hypermind true 53.92% 70.00% This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the Dow Jones index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.
27 Which threshold will the French index CAC 40 hit first? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO Hypermind true 59.00% 59.41% This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the CAC 40 index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.
28 Will the new Bond film "No Time to Die" be released in 2021? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO Hypermind true 94.00% On January 22, MGM pushed back the film's release to October 8, 2021... 23/01/21: It doesn't matter how the movie is released - online or in theaters - as long as it is via a distribution channel approved by MGM.
29 In 2021, will the Olympic Games take place? https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO Hypermind true 62.00% 73.53% The Olympics Games are currently scheduled to start in Japan in July 2021... This question will resolve as "Yes" if the Olympic Games take place anywhere at anytime in 2021.
30 What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q1 2021? https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html Hypermind false none This question compares 2021:Q1 to 2020:Q1. It should be read as: “What will be the Year-over-year growth rate in Q1 2021?" The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q1, which will be published in the spring of 2021. All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1: https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey The growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q1 and 2020:Q1 nominal GDP: Growth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q1/2020:Q1 - 1) Note that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent. Finally, beware that the 2020:Q1 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2021:Q1 estimate.
31 What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2021? https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html Hypermind false none This question compares 2021:Q4 to 2020:Q4. The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q4 which will be published in 2022:Q1. All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1: https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey The growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q4 and 2020:Q4 nominal GDP: Growth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q4/2020:Q4 - 1) Note that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent. Finally, beware that the 2020:Q4 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2021:Q4 estimate.
32 What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2022? https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html Hypermind false none This question compares 2022:Q4 to 2021:Q4. The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2022:Q4, which will be published in 2023:Q1. All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1: https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey The growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2022:Q4 and 2021:Q4 nominal GDP: Growth Rate (%) = 100 * (2022:Q4/2021:Q4 - 1) Note that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent. Finally, beware that the 2021:Q4 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2022:Q14estimate.
33 As of April 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine? https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19 Hypermind false none This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on April 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations] (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) . For the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “compassionate use” counts as approval. * Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on the source for this statistic used by Our World in Data. If Our World in Data does not track this statistic (as of Dec 26 2020 it does not), Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the FDA or credible reporting by major news publications.
34 As of July 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine? https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19 Hypermind false none This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on July 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations] (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) . For the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “compassionate use” counts as approval. * Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on the source for this statistic used by Our World in Data. If Our World in Data does not track this statistic (as of Dec 26 2020 it does not), Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the FDA or credible reporting by major news publications.
35 As of October 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine? https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19 Hypermind false none This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on October 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations] (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) . For the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “compassionate use” counts as approval. * Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on the source for this statistic used by Our World in Data. If Our World in Data does not track this statistic (as of Dec 26 2020 it does not), Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the FDA or credible reporting by major news publications.
36 When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 3 per million people? https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19 Hypermind false none This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published by Our World in Data here: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc * Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.
37 When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 1 per million people? https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19 Hypermind false none This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published by Our World in Data here: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc * Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.
38 When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 0.1 per million people? https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19 Hypermind false none This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published by Our World in Data here: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc * Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.
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data/hypermind-questions.json
View File

@ -4,201 +4,230 @@
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "22.52%"
"Percentage": "21.82%",
"Description": "\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will Kamala Harris be the first woman to become president of the United States?",
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "63.89%"
"Percentage": "63.89%",
"Description": "This question will settle when a woman becomes president of the United States of America.\n"
},
{
"Title": "At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will the USA earn more medals than they ever did during Obama's presidency (121)?",
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "35.00%"
"Percentage": "35.00%",
"Description": "While Barack Obama was president, the United States won: - 121 medals in 2016 - 104 medals in 2012 - 112 medals in 2008 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are canceled in 2021, this question will be resolved according to the medals obtained at the next Olympics.\n"
},
{
"Title": "In 2021, will Joe Biden invoke the Insurrection Act?",
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "5.00%"
"Percentage": "5.00%",
"Description": "The Insurrection Act is a United States federal law that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion. See: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) \n"
},
{
"Title": "Who will be elected president of France in 2022?",
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "\n"
},
{
"Title": "Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election?",
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, \"Le Pen\" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen.\n"
},
{
"Title": "In France, when will the first round of the regional elections take place?",
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "\n"
},
{
"Title": "In France, when will the 7 day average of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 fall back below 5,000?",
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World] (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World) \n"
},
{
"Title": "At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will Japan or France earn more medals?",
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are cancelled, or if they take place elsewhere than in Japan, the shares will be paid out at the following prices: France = 23 H Japan = 74 H Same = 3 H\n"
},
{
"Title": "Following the next parliamentary elections win Morocco, who will succeed Saad-Eddine El Othmani as prime minister?",
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Parliamentary elections are scheduled in September 2021. The PJD (Justice and Development Party) has been in power for the last ten years. Shall the party be renamed or splinter before the elections, any personality issued for its ranks before the renaming or split shall still be considered \"from PJD\".\n"
},
{
"Title": "In Niger, who will win the (February) 2021 presidential election?",
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The second round of the presidential election is scheduled on February 21, 2021.\n"
},
{
"Title": "In 2021, will Faustin-Archange Touadéra lose power in the Central African Republic?",
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "8.00%"
"Percentage": "8.00%",
"Description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Touadéra, president of the Central African Republic, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Touadéra has lost power before the end of the year (local time).\n"
},
{
"Title": "In 2021, will Abdelmadjid Tebboune lose power in Algeria?",
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "8.00%"
"Percentage": "8.00%",
"Description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Tebboune, president of Algeria, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Tebboune has lost power before the end of the year (local time).\n"
},
{
"Title": "In January 2021, how many battle deaths will there be in the G5 Sahel countries?",
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "25.51%"
"Percentage": "12.00%",
"Description": "This question will be judged according to the number of \"fatalities\" published by ACLED ( [http://www.acleddata.com] (http://www.acleddata.com) ) in the \"Battle\" category. A public dashboard with regular updates and historical data is available here: [https://acleddata.com/dashboard/#/dashboard] (https://acleddata.com/dashboard/#/dashboard) \n"
},
{
"Title": "In Congo, who will win the (March) 2021 presidential election?",
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "A presidential election is planned on march 21, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.\n"
},
{
"Title": "In Chad, who will win the (April) 2021 presidential election?",
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "A presidential election is planned on April 11, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.\n"
},
{
"Title": "In Somalia, who will win the (Feb) 2021 presidential election? ",
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "A presidential election is planned for February 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.\n"
},
{
"Title": "When will worldwide commercial air traffic rise back above 100,000 flights per day?",
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "This question will be settled according to the data published by [Flightradar24.com] (https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) in the \"Number of commercial flights...\" chart.\n"
},
{
"Title": "In 2021, who will succeed Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister of Israel?",
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Parliamentary elections are scheduled in March 2021.\n"
},
{
"Title": "In 2021, how much will the arctic sea ice shrink?",
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the others will be worthless (0&Hopf;). \nFollow daily updates of the arctic sea ice shrinkage with <a target=_new href='http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/'>this link</a>\n"
},
{
"Title": "Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany?",
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September.\n"
},
{
"Title": "When will the FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine?",
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "\n"
},
{
"Title": "Which threshold will gold prices (per ounce) reach first? ",
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "44.55%"
"Percentage": "42.57%",
"Description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the other will be worthless (0ℍ).\nFollow godlier prices here: [https://www.monex.com/gold-prices/] (https://www.monex.com/gold-prices/) \n"
},
{
"Title": "What will be the closing share price of GameStop (GME) on Feb. 26, 2021?",
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Follow GameStop's stock price here: [https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/GME] (https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/GME) \n"
},
{
"Title": "Which threshold will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit first?",
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "53.92%"
"Percentage": "70.00%",
"Description": "This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the Dow Jones index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.\n"
},
{
"Title": "Which threshold will the French index CAC 40 hit first?",
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "59.00%"
"Percentage": "59.41%",
"Description": "This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the CAC 40 index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will the new Bond film \"No Time to Die\" be released in 2021?",
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "94.00%"
"Percentage": "94.00%",
"Description": "On January 22, MGM pushed back the film's release to October 8, 2021... 23/01/21: It doesn't matter how the movie is released - online or in theaters - as long as it is via a distribution channel approved by MGM.\n"
},
{
"Title": "In 2021, will the Olympic Games take place?",
"URL": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "62.00%"
"Percentage": "73.53%",
"Description": "The Olympics Games are currently scheduled to start in Japan in July 2021... This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if the Olympic Games take place anywhere at anytime in 2021.\n"
},
{
"Title": "What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q1 2021?",
"URL": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Description": "This question compares 2021:Q1 to 2020:Q1. It should be read as: “What will be the Year-over-year growth rate in Q1 2021?\"\nThe 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q1, which will be published in the spring of 2021.\nAll of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1:\nhttps://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey\nThe growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q1 and 2020:Q1 nominal GDP:\nGrowth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q1/2020:Q1 - 1)\nNote that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent.\nFinally, beware that the 2020:Q1 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2021:Q1 estimate.\n",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
},
@ -206,6 +235,7 @@
"Title": "What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2021?",
"URL": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Description": "This question compares 2021:Q4 to 2020:Q4.\nThe 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q4 which will be published in 2022:Q1.\nAll of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1:\nhttps://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey\nThe growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q4 and 2020:Q4 nominal GDP:\nGrowth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q4/2020:Q4 - 1)\nNote that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent.\nFinally, beware that the 2020:Q4 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2021:Q4 estimate.\n",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
},
@ -213,6 +243,7 @@
"Title": "What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2022?",
"URL": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Description": "This question compares 2022:Q4 to 2021:Q4. \nThe 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2022:Q4, which will be published in 2023:Q1.\nAll of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1:\nhttps://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey\nThe growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2022:Q4 and 2021:Q4 nominal GDP:\nGrowth Rate (%) = 100 * (2022:Q4/2021:Q4 - 1)\nNote that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent.\nFinally, beware that the 2021:Q4 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2022:Q14estimate.\n",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
},
@ -220,6 +251,7 @@
"Title": "As of April 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine?",
"URL": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Description": "This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on April 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations] (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) .\nFor the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “compassionate use” counts as approval.\n* Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on the source for this statistic used by Our World in Data. If Our World in Data does not track this statistic (as of Dec 26 2020 it does not), Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the FDA or credible reporting by major news publications.\n",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
},
@ -227,6 +259,7 @@
"Title": "As of July 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine?",
"URL": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Description": "This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on July 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations] (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) .\nFor the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “compassionate use” counts as approval.\n* Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on the source for this statistic used by Our World in Data. If Our World in Data does not track this statistic (as of Dec 26 2020 it does not), Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the FDA or credible reporting by major news publications.\n",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
},
@ -234,6 +267,7 @@
"Title": "As of October 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine?",
"URL": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Description": "This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on October 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations] (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) .\nFor the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “compassionate use” counts as approval.\n* Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on the source for this statistic used by Our World in Data. If Our World in Data does not track this statistic (as of Dec 26 2020 it does not), Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the FDA or credible reporting by major news publications.\n",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
},
@ -241,6 +275,7 @@
"Title": "When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 3 per million people?",
"URL": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Description": "This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published by Our World in Data here: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc\n* Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.\n",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
},
@ -248,6 +283,7 @@
"Title": "When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 1 per million people?",
"URL": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Description": "This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published by Our World in Data here: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc\n* Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.\n",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
},
@ -255,6 +291,7 @@
"Title": "When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 0.1 per million people?",
"URL": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19",
"Platform": "Hypermind",
"Description": "This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published by Our World in Data here: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc\n* Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.\n",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
}

13924
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data/merged-questions.json
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data/metaculus-questions.csv
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data/metaculus-questions.json
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20
data/omen-questions.csv
View File

@ -1,10 +1,10 @@
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts"
"Will the Ethereum block gas limit be >= 25,000,000 gas in any block on April 1st 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x06c942fd737bc53571a34667b2ae3b669f1f502d","Omen",true,"98.8630%",
"Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x32848849f5b7e30ff75f57838fea8f9663c3d9de","Omen",true,"10.8673%",
"Will Uniswap V3 be launched and usable in Q1 2021? (includes mainnet or Layer2)","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x8bcf27b20670a4f32973cbf231b8904029da1ccb","Omen",true,"40.1381%",
"When will the FDA approve the use of an existing, orally-administered vaccine for the prevention of COVID-19?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x9598659e3fc7d5a618b57e94be2ac37e5d774905","Omen",false,"none",
"Will The Flippening happen in 2021? (Will another blockchain's market cap exceed Bitcoin's market cap in 2021?)","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xa6da2bc89a433b9cdcc7271077a119139f4d305c","Omen",true,"50.0000%",
"Will Joe Biden be the US President at the end of 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xd450b6c4db569f600cb42acc0a6cd3a140c4894b","Omen",true,"85.1032%",
"What will be the outcome of the 2020 US Presidential Election for the office of President of the United States, where the winner is the one receiving the most votes from certified electors of the Electoral College, those votes having been officially counted by the United States Congress under VICE PRESIDENT MICHAEL PENCE on January 6, 2021 (per the Electoral Count Act of 1887)?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xdbf41f1f2d28216eb4e76b9ed3856180c2daa479","Omen",true,"99.0000%",
"Will Compound Chain be launched and usable by the end of Q2 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xe018254be84e200bfb9947dc57df8943cb2ac1b2","Omen",true,"40.0000%",
"Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xed6940e49cee029c4664d9794c04d5f9e5597632","Omen",true,"10.9519%",
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","Description","# Forecasts"
"Will the Ethereum block gas limit be >= 25,000,000 gas in any block on April 1st 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x06c942fd737bc53571a34667b2ae3b669f1f502d","Omen",true,"98.8630%","",
"Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x32848849f5b7e30ff75f57838fea8f9663c3d9de","Omen",true,"10.8673%","",
"Will Uniswap V3 be launched and usable in Q1 2021? (includes mainnet or Layer2)","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x8bcf27b20670a4f32973cbf231b8904029da1ccb","Omen",true,"40.1381%","",
"When will the FDA approve the use of an existing, orally-administered vaccine for the prevention of COVID-19?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0x9598659e3fc7d5a618b57e94be2ac37e5d774905","Omen",false,"none","",
"Will The Flippening happen in 2021? (Will another blockchain's market cap exceed Bitcoin's market cap in 2021?)","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xa6da2bc89a433b9cdcc7271077a119139f4d305c","Omen",true,"50.0000%","",
"Will Joe Biden be the US President at the end of 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xd450b6c4db569f600cb42acc0a6cd3a140c4894b","Omen",true,"85.1032%","",
"What will be the outcome of the 2020 US Presidential Election for the office of President of the United States, where the winner is the one receiving the most votes from certified electors of the Electoral College, those votes having been officially counted by the United States Congress under VICE PRESIDENT MICHAEL PENCE on January 6, 2021 (per the Electoral Count Act of 1887)?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xdbf41f1f2d28216eb4e76b9ed3856180c2daa479","Omen",true,"99.0000%","",
"Will Compound Chain be launched and usable by the end of Q2 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xe018254be84e200bfb9947dc57df8943cb2ac1b2","Omen",true,"40.0000%","",
"Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021?","https://omen.eth.link/#/0xed6940e49cee029c4664d9794c04d5f9e5597632","Omen",true,"10.9519%","",
1 Title URL Platform Binary question? Percentage Description # Forecasts
2 Will the Ethereum block gas limit be >= 25,000,000 gas in any block on April 1st 2021? https://omen.eth.link/#/0x06c942fd737bc53571a34667b2ae3b669f1f502d Omen true 98.8630%
3 Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021? https://omen.eth.link/#/0x32848849f5b7e30ff75f57838fea8f9663c3d9de Omen true 10.8673%
4 Will Uniswap V3 be launched and usable in Q1 2021? (includes mainnet or Layer2) https://omen.eth.link/#/0x8bcf27b20670a4f32973cbf231b8904029da1ccb Omen true 40.1381%
5 When will the FDA approve the use of an existing, orally-administered vaccine for the prevention of COVID-19? https://omen.eth.link/#/0x9598659e3fc7d5a618b57e94be2ac37e5d774905 Omen false none
6 Will The Flippening happen in 2021? (Will another blockchain's market cap exceed Bitcoin's market cap in 2021?) https://omen.eth.link/#/0xa6da2bc89a433b9cdcc7271077a119139f4d305c Omen true 50.0000%
7 Will Joe Biden be the US President at the end of 2021? https://omen.eth.link/#/0xd450b6c4db569f600cb42acc0a6cd3a140c4894b Omen true 85.1032%
8 What will be the outcome of the 2020 US Presidential Election for the office of President of the United States, where the winner is the one receiving the most votes from certified electors of the Electoral College, those votes having been officially counted by the United States Congress under VICE PRESIDENT MICHAEL PENCE on January 6, 2021 (per the Electoral Count Act of 1887)? https://omen.eth.link/#/0xdbf41f1f2d28216eb4e76b9ed3856180c2daa479 Omen true 99.0000%
9 Will Compound Chain be launched and usable by the end of Q2 2021? https://omen.eth.link/#/0xe018254be84e200bfb9947dc57df8943cb2ac1b2 Omen true 40.0000%
10 Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021? https://omen.eth.link/#/0xed6940e49cee029c4664d9794c04d5f9e5597632 Omen true 10.9519%

27
data/omen-questions.json
View File

@ -8,7 +8,8 @@
"0.9886301130345439673746235229155343",
"0.01136988696545603262537647708446573"
],
"Percentage": "98.8630%"
"Percentage": "98.8630%",
"Description": ""
},
{
"Title": "Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021?",
@ -19,7 +20,8 @@
"0.1086728608079395832263016792869373",
"0.8913271391920604167736983207130627"
],
"Percentage": "10.8673%"
"Percentage": "10.8673%",
"Description": ""
},
{
"Title": "Will Uniswap V3 be launched and usable in Q1 2021? (includes mainnet or Layer2)",
@ -30,7 +32,8 @@
"0.4013812037799882539689575072876216",
"0.5986187962200117460310424927123784"
],
"Percentage": "40.1381%"
"Percentage": "40.1381%",
"Description": ""
},
{
"Title": "When will the FDA approve the use of an existing, orally-administered vaccine for the prevention of COVID-19?",
@ -44,7 +47,8 @@
"0.01515661495857047678999833535985743",
"0.9393735401657180928400066585605703"
],
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": ""
},
{
"Title": "Will The Flippening happen in 2021? (Will another blockchain's market cap exceed Bitcoin's market cap in 2021?)",
@ -55,7 +59,8 @@
"0.5",
"0.5"
],
"Percentage": "50.0000%"
"Percentage": "50.0000%",
"Description": ""
},
{
"Title": "Will Joe Biden be the US President at the end of 2021?",
@ -66,7 +71,8 @@
"0.8510322451182968590048070388296782",
"0.1489677548817031409951929611703218"
],
"Percentage": "85.1032%"
"Percentage": "85.1032%",
"Description": ""
},
{
"Title": "What will be the outcome of the 2020 US Presidential Election for the office of President of the United States, where the winner is the one receiving the most votes from certified electors of the Electoral College, those votes having been officially counted by the United States Congress under VICE PRESIDENT MICHAEL PENCE on January 6, 2021 (per the Electoral Count Act of 1887)?",
@ -77,7 +83,8 @@
"0.9900000000000001225706801609666705",
"0.00999999999999987742931983903332947"
],
"Percentage": "99.0000%"
"Percentage": "99.0000%",
"Description": ""
},
{
"Title": "Will Compound Chain be launched and usable by the end of Q2 2021?",
@ -88,7 +95,8 @@
"0.399999999999999999999976",
"0.600000000000000000000024"
],
"Percentage": "40.0000%"
"Percentage": "40.0000%",
"Description": ""
},
{
"Title": "Will UNI governance approve a new liquidity mining program by the end of February, 2021?",
@ -99,6 +107,7 @@
"0.1095186501966299113862061692110534",
"0.8904813498033700886137938307889466"
],
"Percentage": "10.9519%"
"Percentage": "10.9519%",
"Description": ""
}
]

72
data/polymarket-questions.csv
View File

@ -1,26 +1,46 @@
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts"
"How many more tweets will be on the @ElonMusk account on February 3, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-elon-musk-account-on-february-3-2021","PolyMarket",false,"none","649.00"
"Will Dogecoin be above $.069 on February 2nd?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-dogecoin-be-above-069-on-february-2nd","PolyMarket",true,"3.5382%","239.00"
"Will Tesla announce a Bitcoin purchase before March 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-tesla-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-march-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"15.5817%","1284.00"
"Will Donald Trump's Twitter account be active on March 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-s-twitter-account-be-active-on-march-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"5.2869%","264.00"
"How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by March 1?","https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-senators-will-vote-to-convict-donald-trump-on-incitement-by-march-1","PolyMarket",false,"none","956.00"
"Who will the world's richest person be on February 27, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/who-will-the-world-s-richest-person-be-on-february-27-2021","PolyMarket",false,"none","686.00"
"How many more tweets will be on the @DonaldJTrumpJr account by February 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-donald-j-trump-jr-account-by-february-1-2021","PolyMarket",false,"none","2385.00"
"Will YFI total supply be greater than 30,000 by March 15th?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-yfi-total-supply-be-greater-than-30-000-by-march-15th","PolyMarket",true,"88.5820%","156.00"
"Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on March 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"96.0691%","3419.00"
"Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in The US by April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"59.8311%","1062.00"
"Will $BTC break $50k before April 1st, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-btc-break-50k-before-april-1st-2021","PolyMarket",true,"38.0059%","1486.00"
"Will Bitcoin or Tesla have a higher market cap on March 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-or-tesla-have-a-higher-market-cap-on-march-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"33.0425%","316.00"
"Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match","PolyMarket",true,"90.3575%","474.00"
"Will the Trail Blazers or the Bucks win their February 1st matchup?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-trail-blazers-or-the-bucks-win-their-february-1st-matchup","PolyMarket",true,"20.6931%","30.00"
"Will the Senate convict Donald Trump on impeachment by April 29, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-senate-convict-donald-trump-on-impeachment-before-june-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"7.0351%","640.00"
"Superbowl 55: Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-kansas-city-chiefs-win-superbowl-55","PolyMarket",true,"61.2180%","629.00"
"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021","PolyMarket",true,"5.4605%","1401.00"
"Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be above 10% on March 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-above-10-on-march-15-2021","PolyMarket",true,"7.8102%","96.00"
"$2000 stimulus checks by February 28, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/2000-stimulus-checks-by-february-28-2021","PolyMarket",true,"27.2357%","1070.00"
"What rating will theneedledrop give Drake’s ""Certified Lover Boy""?","https://polymarket.com/market/what-rating-will-theneedledrop-give-drake-s-certified-lover-boy","PolyMarket",true,"55.5800%","62.00"
"Will there be enough signatures for a vote on the recall of Gov. Newsom by March 17?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-gov-newsom-by-march-17","PolyMarket",true,"63.1510%","124.00"
"Will ETH be above $1500 on February 3rd, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-1500-on-february-3rd-2021","PolyMarket",true,"6.2112%","1049.00"
"How many subscribers will /r/wallstreetbets have on February 7, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-subscribers-will-rwallstreetbets-have-on-february-7-2021","PolyMarket",false,"none","1757.00"
" Will Kim Kardashian or Kanye West file for divorce before March 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-kim-kardashian-or-kanye-west-file-for-divorce-before-march-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"21.3404%","169.00"
"Donald Trump federally charged by February 20th?","https://polymarket.com/market/donald-trump-federally-charged-by-february-20th","PolyMarket",true,"3.9565%","292.00"
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","Description","# Forecasts"
"Will Tesla announce a Bitcoin purchase before March 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-tesla-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-march-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"12.22%","This is a market on if Tesla ($TSLA) will announce either their intention to purchase Bitcoin ($BTC) off their balance sheet, the completion of such a purchase, or in any other way, ownership of BTC on their balance sheet. This announcement may come from either Tesla's official channels, or Elon Musk's official channels. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla satisfies any of the aforementioned resolution conditions before the resolution date, March 1, 2021, 12:00am EST. If, for any reason the aforementioned market conditions are not met by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","1333"
"Will Donald Trump's Twitter account be active on March 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-s-twitter-account-be-active-on-march-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"4.89%","This is a market on if Donald Trump's Twitter account will be reinstated and active on the resolution date, 12:00am EST on March 1, 2021. The resolution source will be the link to President Trump’s personal Twitter account, https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump. If the account is accessible and no longer blocked by a message stating something to the effect of “account suspended” upon the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If, upon the resolution date, https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump says ""account suspended"" or something similar, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","269"
"Who will the world's richest person be on February 27, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/who-will-the-world-s-richest-person-be-on-february-27-2021","PolyMarket",false,"none","This is a market on who will be the world's richest person on February 27, 2021, 12PM EST, according to Forbes' billionaires list. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, current CEO of Amazon, Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla, and “Other“, representing anyone else being the top of the Forbes list. This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has the world's highest net worth in terms of USD on the resolution date. The market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he is the world's highest net worth individual in terms of USD on the resolution date. If for any reason, any individual other than Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk is listed as the highest net worth individual in the world on the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Other”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be [forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/](http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/).","774"
"Will ETH be above $1500 on February 3rd, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-1500-on-february-3rd-2021","PolyMarket",true,"66.80%","This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $1,500 on February 3rd, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $1,500 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","2797"
"How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by March 1?","https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-senators-will-vote-to-convict-donald-trump-on-incitement-by-march-1","PolyMarket",false,"none","This is a market on the number of U.S. Senators who will vote to convict Donald J. Trump on the charge of incitement of insurrection prior to March 1, 2021. If no such vote takes place prior to the resolution date, or if Trump is acquitted via voice vote or another procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, “52 or fewer"" will resolve to “Yes"". Should such a vote result in the conviction of Trump via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, “62 or more"" will resolve to “Yes"". The Vice President, as President of the Senate, is not a Senator for purposes of this market. The outcome corresponding to the number of U.S. Senators who vote to convict Trump on the charge of incitement will resolve to “Yes"".
The resolution source for this market will be the guilty vote count on the corresponding legislative page of https://www.senate.gov/legislative.
Clarifying note: This market will resolve upon the first such Senate vote.","1008"
"Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be above 10% on March 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-above-10-on-march-15-2021","PolyMarket",true,"10.62%","This is a market on if the DeFi Dominance metric, according to CoinGecko, will be above 10% on March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if DeFi Dominance is listed as being greater than or equal 10.0% on the resolution date. The market will resolve to “No“ if DeFi dominance is less than 10.0% at that time of resolution. The resolution source for this market will be the metric currently listed on [https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi](https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi) as “Defi Dominance (vs. Global)“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution date for this market will be March 15, 2021.","116"
"Will YFI total supply be greater than 30,000 by March 15th?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-yfi-total-supply-be-greater-than-30-000-by-march-15th","PolyMarket",true,"90.01%","This is a market on if the total supply of $YFI, the native token of yearn.finance, will be greater than 30,000 by March 15th, 2021, 4pm EST. Currently there is much debate around adding inflation to the current fixed supply of 30,000 YFI tokens, as a means of creating further incentive for team members and core devs to be committed to the project. If this happens, and the total supply of YFI exceeds 30,000 before the resolution date, the market will resolve to ""Yes"". If the total supply of YFI remains 30,000 on the resolution date, even if a governance proposal set to change that has been approved, the market will resolve to ""No"". If the token gets redeployed and a migration happens, where there is social consensus on a new YFI token that governs yearn.finance, that will be treated as YFI. The main resolution sources will be Coingecko (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/yearn-finance) and the current ERC20 contract (https://etherscan.io/token/0x0bc529c00c6401aef6d220be8c6ea1667f6ad93e).","181"
"Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in The US by April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"61.91%","This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
","1137"
"Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on March 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"95.79%","This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on March 1, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, [https://www.whitehouse.gov/](https://www.whitehouse.gov/)","3521"
"Will $BTC break $50k before April 1st, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-btc-break-50k-before-april-1st-2021","PolyMarket",true,"38.77%","This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $50,000 at any point before April 1st, 2021, 12:00am EST, according to Coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin. This market starts on January 4, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes“ whenever BTC breaks $50,000 according to Coinmarketcap, and if that condition is not met by April 1st, 2021, it will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","1543"
"Will Bitcoin or Tesla have a higher market cap on March 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-or-tesla-have-a-higher-market-cap-on-march-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"33.44%","This is a market on if Bitcoin ($BTC) or Tesla ($TSLA) will have the higher market capitalization on the resolution date, March 1, 2021, 4pm EST. If Bitcoin’s market capitalization (according to Coinmarketcap, based on circulating supply) is higher than Tesla’s at that time, this market will resolve to “Bitcoin”, and vice versa.
The resolution sources for this market will be the official website of the NASDAQ, https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla, for Tesla’s market capitalization, and https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ for Bitcoin’s market capitalization.","343"
"Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match","PolyMarket",true,"91.62%","This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for ""Yes"" and .10 for ""No"", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","486"
"Will there be enough signatures for a vote on the recall of Gov. Newsom by March 17?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-gov-newsom-by-march-17","PolyMarket",true,"63.94%","This is a market on if there will be enough petition signatures for a vote on the recall of California Governor Gavin Newson prior to March 17, 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if a recall election is triggered and ""No"" otherwise. The linked PredictIt question will be referenced as the leading resolution source, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom. This market will resolve when the PredictIt market is resolved, to the same outcome.","155"
"Will the Senate convict Donald Trump on impeachment by April 29, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-senate-convict-donald-trump-on-impeachment-before-june-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"7.24%","This is a market on whether Donald Trump will be convicted of one or more articles of impeachment prior to April 29, 2021, 11:59pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the U.S. Senate, by a vote of at least two-thirds of the Members present, convicts President Trump on one or more articles of impeachment. This market will resolve to “No“ if the U.S. Senate does not convict President Trump of any articles of impeachment by a vote of at least two-thirds of the Members present prior to the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
The resolution source for this market will be the equivalent PredictIt market, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7050/Will-the-Senate-convict-Donald-Trump-in-Biden's-first-100-days.
","653"
"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021","PolyMarket",true,"5.80%","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/.
If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","1547"
"Superbowl 55: Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-kansas-city-chiefs-win-superbowl-55","PolyMarket",true,"61.48%","This is a market on whether the Kansas City Chiefs will win the NFL Super Bowl 55. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to https://www.nfl.com/, the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 55. If they are eliminated from the NFL playoffs beforehand, or they lose the Super Bowl game, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of any postponement of the Super Bowl, this market will not be resolved until the game is played, unless the Kansas City Chiefs are not competing in this match.
Note: in the event the Chiefs make the Superbowl, this market may be rephrased to ""Chiefs vs Team 2"", as opposed to Chiefs winning the Superbowl. Ultimately, it will have the exact some resolution and meaning, but may be easier to interpret.
Note 2 (1-25-21): Chiefs made the Superbowl and market outcomes have been changed from ""Yes | No"" to ""Chiefs | Bucs"".","672"
"How many subscribers will /r/wallstreetbets have on February 7, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-subscribers-will-rwallstreetbets-have-on-february-7-2021","PolyMarket",false,"none","This is a market on the number of subscribers the r/wallstreetbets subreddit will have by the resolution date, February 7, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The options for this market are less than 6.5 million, 6.5-7.5 million, 7.5-8.5 million, 8.5-9.5 million, 9.5-10.5 million, and greater than 10.5 million. The market will resolve to whichever option corresponds to the resolution source's count of r/wallstreetbets' current subscribers. If r/wallstreetbets is inaccessible because of a ban or suspension at the time of market resolution, this market will resolve to ""less than 6.5 million"". If Reddit as a whole is offline at the time of market resolution, market resolution will be delayed until the earliest time at which the site is accessible. The resolution source for this market will be the ""reader"" count listed on https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","2934"
"$2000 stimulus checks by February 28, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/2000-stimulus-checks-by-february-28-2021","PolyMarket",true,"20.59%","This market concerns whether or not legislation will be signed into law by February 28, 2021, 11:59pm EST which includes direct government stimulus payments to US citizens of $2000. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date according to the official Congress website, regardless of if the stimulus checks have been paid out yet. This market will resolve to “No” if no such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be congress.gov/bill, the official website of Congress.
Clarifying Note: In the event of an amendment that effectively increases stimulus payments from $600 to $2000, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of an additional payment of $1400 to supplement existing $600 payments, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of a $2000 payment to supplement the existing $600 payment, this market will resolve to ""Yes"".","1146"
"Will LINK be above $30 on February 10th?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-link-be-above-30-on-february-10th-1","PolyMarket",true,"16.43%","This is a market on if the USD price of Chainlink $LINK will be above $30 on February 10th, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/chainlink/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if LINK is trading above $30 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","84"
"Will the Warriors or the Celtics win their February 2nd matchup?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-warriors-or-the-celtics-win-their-february-2nd-matchup","PolyMarket",true,"0.03%","This is a market on which team will win the February 2nd, 2021 matchup between the Golden State Warriors and the Boston Celtics. In the event this game is delayed for whatever reason, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the game takes place. In the extraordinarily unlikely event the game is canceled altogether, the market will resolve to 50/50. In the event of overtime, this market will resolve to the eventual winner. Results of this market will be decided by official scores available on https://www.nba.com/.","525"
"Will Coinbase delist Ripple (XRP) before they begin publicly trading?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-coinbase-delist-ripple-xrp-before-they-begin-publicly-trading","PolyMarket",true,"97.62%","This is a market on if Coinbase will delist Ripple’s token, XRP, prior to the day they begin publicly trading. This market will resolve to “yes” if, before Coinbase stock begins trading, XRP has been delisted from Coinbase for US Users - meaning it can no longer be traded on either Coinbase or Coinbase Pro, for all Americans. This market will resolve to “no” if, for any reason, XRP is still available for trading to US Coinbase users on the day Coinbase begins publicly trading. The primary resolution source for this market will be Coinbase’s official webpage, which lists supported cryptocurrencies, https://help.coinbase.com/en/coinbase/getting-started/general-crypto-education/supported-cryptocurrencies, and specifically pertains to the US category. Even if XRP is available for trading via Coinbase in a jurisdiction other than the United States, or mentioned on the website or app, if it is not available for trading in the US, this market will resolve to “yes”. The resolution date for this market will be 10:00am EST on the day Coinbase becomes publicly traded. If Coinbase stock does not begin publicly trading by September 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “no”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","544"
" Will Kim Kardashian or Kanye West file for divorce before March 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-kim-kardashian-or-kanye-west-file-for-divorce-before-march-1-2021","PolyMarket",true,"22.09%","This is a market on whether Kanye West or Kim Kardashian will officially file for a divorce before March 1st 2021. Filing for divorce, in the context of this market, can be defined empirically as either an official announcement directly from either Kim or Kanye that they're getting divorced, or an official filing of divorce, including but not limited to certified copies of divorce decrees available from the Superior Court in the county where the decree was granted. This market will resolve ""Yes"" if the aforementioned conditions are met and ""No"" otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","173"
"Donald Trump federally charged by February 20th?","https://polymarket.com/market/donald-trump-federally-charged-by-february-20th","PolyMarket",true,"3.84%","This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed on or before February 20, 2021 by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before February 20, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","301"
1 Title URL Platform Binary question? Percentage Description # Forecasts
2 How many more tweets will be on the @ElonMusk account on February 3, 2021? Will Tesla announce a Bitcoin purchase before March 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-elon-musk-account-on-february-3-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-tesla-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-march-1-2021 PolyMarket false true none 12.22% This is a market on if Tesla ($TSLA) will announce either their intention to purchase Bitcoin ($BTC) off their balance sheet, the completion of such a purchase, or in any other way, ownership of BTC on their balance sheet. This announcement may come from either Tesla's official channels, or Elon Musk's official channels. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla satisfies any of the aforementioned resolution conditions before the resolution date, March 1, 2021, 12:00am EST. If, for any reason the aforementioned market conditions are not met by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). 649.00 1333
3 Will Dogecoin be above $.069 on February 2nd? Will Donald Trump's Twitter account be active on March 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-dogecoin-be-above-069-on-february-2nd https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-s-twitter-account-be-active-on-march-1-2021 PolyMarket true 3.5382% 4.89% This is a market on if Donald Trump's Twitter account will be reinstated and active on the resolution date, 12:00am EST on March 1, 2021. The resolution source will be the link to President Trump’s personal Twitter account, https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump. If the account is accessible and no longer blocked by a message stating something to the effect of “account suspended” upon the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If, upon the resolution date, https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump says "account suspended" or something similar, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). 239.00 269
4 Will Tesla announce a Bitcoin purchase before March 1, 2021? Who will the world's richest person be on February 27, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-tesla-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-march-1-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/who-will-the-world-s-richest-person-be-on-february-27-2021 PolyMarket true false 15.5817% none This is a market on who will be the world's richest person on February 27, 2021, 12PM EST, according to Forbes' billionaires list. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, current CEO of Amazon, Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla, and “Other“, representing anyone else being the top of the Forbes list. This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has the world's highest net worth in terms of USD on the resolution date. The market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he is the world's highest net worth individual in terms of USD on the resolution date. If for any reason, any individual other than Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk is listed as the highest net worth individual in the world on the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Other”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be [forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/](http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/). 1284.00 774
5 Will Donald Trump's Twitter account be active on March 1, 2021? Will ETH be above $1500 on February 3rd, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-s-twitter-account-be-active-on-march-1-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-1500-on-february-3rd-2021 PolyMarket true 5.2869% 66.80% This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $1,500 on February 3rd, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $1,500 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). 264.00 2797
6 How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by March 1? https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-senators-will-vote-to-convict-donald-trump-on-incitement-by-march-1 PolyMarket false none This is a market on the number of U.S. Senators who will vote to convict Donald J. Trump on the charge of incitement of insurrection prior to March 1, 2021. If no such vote takes place prior to the resolution date, or if Trump is acquitted via voice vote or another procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, “52 or fewer" will resolve to “Yes". Should such a vote result in the conviction of Trump via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, “62 or more" will resolve to “Yes". The Vice President, as President of the Senate, is not a Senator for purposes of this market. The outcome corresponding to the number of U.S. Senators who vote to convict Trump on the charge of incitement will resolve to “Yes". The resolution source for this market will be the guilty vote count on the corresponding legislative page of https://www.senate.gov/legislative. Clarifying note: This market will resolve upon the first such Senate vote. 956.00 1008
7 Who will the world's richest person be on February 27, 2021? Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be above 10% on March 15, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/who-will-the-world-s-richest-person-be-on-february-27-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-above-10-on-march-15-2021 PolyMarket false true none 10.62% This is a market on if the DeFi Dominance metric, according to CoinGecko, will be above 10% on March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if DeFi Dominance is listed as being greater than or equal 10.0% on the resolution date. The market will resolve to “No“ if DeFi dominance is less than 10.0% at that time of resolution. The resolution source for this market will be the metric currently listed on [https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi](https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi) as “Defi Dominance (vs. Global)“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution date for this market will be March 15, 2021. 686.00 116
8 How many more tweets will be on the @DonaldJTrumpJr account by February 1, 2021? Will YFI total supply be greater than 30,000 by March 15th? https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-donald-j-trump-jr-account-by-february-1-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-yfi-total-supply-be-greater-than-30-000-by-march-15th PolyMarket false true none 90.01% This is a market on if the total supply of $YFI, the native token of yearn.finance, will be greater than 30,000 by March 15th, 2021, 4pm EST. Currently there is much debate around adding inflation to the current fixed supply of 30,000 YFI tokens, as a means of creating further incentive for team members and core devs to be committed to the project. If this happens, and the total supply of YFI exceeds 30,000 before the resolution date, the market will resolve to "Yes". If the total supply of YFI remains 30,000 on the resolution date, even if a governance proposal set to change that has been approved, the market will resolve to "No". If the token gets redeployed and a migration happens, where there is social consensus on a new YFI token that governs yearn.finance, that will be treated as YFI. The main resolution sources will be Coingecko (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/yearn-finance) and the current ERC20 contract (https://etherscan.io/token/0x0bc529c00c6401aef6d220be8c6ea1667f6ad93e). 2385.00 181
9 Will YFI total supply be greater than 30,000 by March 15th? Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in The US by April 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-yfi-total-supply-be-greater-than-30-000-by-march-15th https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021 PolyMarket true 88.5820% 61.91% This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to "Yes" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to "No" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations 156.00 1137
10 Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on March 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-1-2021 PolyMarket true 96.0691% 95.79% This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on March 1, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, [https://www.whitehouse.gov/](https://www.whitehouse.gov/) 3419.00 3521
11 Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in The US by April 1, 2021? Will $BTC break $50k before April 1st, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-btc-break-50k-before-april-1st-2021 PolyMarket true 59.8311% 38.77% This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $50,000 at any point before April 1st, 2021, 12:00am EST, according to Coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin. This market starts on January 4, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes“ whenever BTC breaks $50,000 according to Coinmarketcap, and if that condition is not met by April 1st, 2021, it will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). 1062.00 1543
12 Will $BTC break $50k before April 1st, 2021? Will Bitcoin or Tesla have a higher market cap on March 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-btc-break-50k-before-april-1st-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-or-tesla-have-a-higher-market-cap-on-march-1-2021 PolyMarket true 38.0059% 33.44% This is a market on if Bitcoin ($BTC) or Tesla ($TSLA) will have the higher market capitalization on the resolution date, March 1, 2021, 4pm EST. If Bitcoin’s market capitalization (according to Coinmarketcap, based on circulating supply) is higher than Tesla’s at that time, this market will resolve to “Bitcoin”, and vice versa. The resolution sources for this market will be the official website of the NASDAQ, https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla, for Tesla’s market capitalization, and https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ for Bitcoin’s market capitalization. 1486.00 343
13 Will Bitcoin or Tesla have a higher market cap on March 1, 2021? Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match? https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-or-tesla-have-a-higher-market-cap-on-march-1-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match PolyMarket true 33.0425% 91.62% This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for "Yes" and .10 for "No", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). 316.00 486
14 Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match? Will there be enough signatures for a vote on the recall of Gov. Newsom by March 17? https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-gov-newsom-by-march-17 PolyMarket true 90.3575% 63.94% This is a market on if there will be enough petition signatures for a vote on the recall of California Governor Gavin Newson prior to March 17, 2021. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a recall election is triggered and "No" otherwise. The linked PredictIt question will be referenced as the leading resolution source, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom. This market will resolve when the PredictIt market is resolved, to the same outcome. 474.00 155
15 Will the Trail Blazers or the Bucks win their February 1st matchup? Will the Senate convict Donald Trump on impeachment by April 29, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-trail-blazers-or-the-bucks-win-their-february-1st-matchup https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-senate-convict-donald-trump-on-impeachment-before-june-1-2021 PolyMarket true 20.6931% 7.24% This is a market on whether Donald Trump will be convicted of one or more articles of impeachment prior to April 29, 2021, 11:59pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the U.S. Senate, by a vote of at least two-thirds of the Members present, convicts President Trump on one or more articles of impeachment. This market will resolve to “No“ if the U.S. Senate does not convict President Trump of any articles of impeachment by a vote of at least two-thirds of the Members present prior to the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the equivalent PredictIt market, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7050/Will-the-Senate-convict-Donald-Trump-in-Biden's-first-100-days. 30.00 653
16 Will the Senate convict Donald Trump on impeachment by April 29, 2021? Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-senate-convict-donald-trump-on-impeachment-before-june-1-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021 PolyMarket true 7.0351% 5.80% This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). 640.00 1547
17 Superbowl 55: Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-kansas-city-chiefs-win-superbowl-55 PolyMarket true 61.2180% 61.48% This is a market on whether the Kansas City Chiefs will win the NFL Super Bowl 55. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to https://www.nfl.com/, the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 55. If they are eliminated from the NFL playoffs beforehand, or they lose the Super Bowl game, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of any postponement of the Super Bowl, this market will not be resolved until the game is played, unless the Kansas City Chiefs are not competing in this match. Note: in the event the Chiefs make the Superbowl, this market may be rephrased to "Chiefs vs Team 2", as opposed to Chiefs winning the Superbowl. Ultimately, it will have the exact some resolution and meaning, but may be easier to interpret. Note 2 (1-25-21): Chiefs made the Superbowl and market outcomes have been changed from "Yes | No" to "Chiefs | Bucs". 629.00 672
18 Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021? How many subscribers will /r/wallstreetbets have on February 7, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-subscribers-will-rwallstreetbets-have-on-february-7-2021 PolyMarket true false 5.4605% none This is a market on the number of subscribers the r/wallstreetbets subreddit will have by the resolution date, February 7, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The options for this market are less than 6.5 million, 6.5-7.5 million, 7.5-8.5 million, 8.5-9.5 million, 9.5-10.5 million, and greater than 10.5 million. The market will resolve to whichever option corresponds to the resolution source's count of r/wallstreetbets' current subscribers. If r/wallstreetbets is inaccessible because of a ban or suspension at the time of market resolution, this market will resolve to "less than 6.5 million". If Reddit as a whole is offline at the time of market resolution, market resolution will be delayed until the earliest time at which the site is accessible. The resolution source for this market will be the "reader" count listed on https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). 1401.00 2934
19 Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be above 10% on March 15, 2021? $2000 stimulus checks by February 28, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-above-10-on-march-15-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/2000-stimulus-checks-by-february-28-2021 PolyMarket true 7.8102% 20.59% This market concerns whether or not legislation will be signed into law by February 28, 2021, 11:59pm EST which includes direct government stimulus payments to US citizens of $2000. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date according to the official Congress website, regardless of if the stimulus checks have been paid out yet. This market will resolve to “No” if no such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be congress.gov/bill, the official website of Congress. Clarifying Note: In the event of an amendment that effectively increases stimulus payments from $600 to $2000, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of an additional payment of $1400 to supplement existing $600 payments, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of a $2000 payment to supplement the existing $600 payment, this market will resolve to "Yes". 96.00 1146
20 $2000 stimulus checks by February 28, 2021? Will LINK be above $30 on February 10th? https://polymarket.com/market/2000-stimulus-checks-by-february-28-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-link-be-above-30-on-february-10th-1 PolyMarket true 27.2357% 16.43% This is a market on if the USD price of Chainlink $LINK will be above $30 on February 10th, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/chainlink/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if LINK is trading above $30 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). 1070.00 84
21 What rating will theneedledrop give Drake’s "Certified Lover Boy"? Will the Warriors or the Celtics win their February 2nd matchup? https://polymarket.com/market/what-rating-will-theneedledrop-give-drake-s-certified-lover-boy https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-warriors-or-the-celtics-win-their-february-2nd-matchup PolyMarket true 55.5800% 0.03% This is a market on which team will win the February 2nd, 2021 matchup between the Golden State Warriors and the Boston Celtics. In the event this game is delayed for whatever reason, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the game takes place. In the extraordinarily unlikely event the game is canceled altogether, the market will resolve to 50/50. In the event of overtime, this market will resolve to the eventual winner. Results of this market will be decided by official scores available on https://www.nba.com/. 62.00 525
22 Will there be enough signatures for a vote on the recall of Gov. Newsom by March 17? Will Coinbase delist Ripple (XRP) before they begin publicly trading? https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-gov-newsom-by-march-17 https://polymarket.com/market/will-coinbase-delist-ripple-xrp-before-they-begin-publicly-trading PolyMarket true 63.1510% 97.62% This is a market on if Coinbase will delist Ripple’s token, XRP, prior to the day they begin publicly trading. This market will resolve to “yes” if, before Coinbase stock begins trading, XRP has been delisted from Coinbase for US Users - meaning it can no longer be traded on either Coinbase or Coinbase Pro, for all Americans. This market will resolve to “no” if, for any reason, XRP is still available for trading to US Coinbase users on the day Coinbase begins publicly trading. The primary resolution source for this market will be Coinbase’s official webpage, which lists supported cryptocurrencies, https://help.coinbase.com/en/coinbase/getting-started/general-crypto-education/supported-cryptocurrencies, and specifically pertains to the US category. Even if XRP is available for trading via Coinbase in a jurisdiction other than the United States, or mentioned on the website or app, if it is not available for trading in the US, this market will resolve to “yes”. The resolution date for this market will be 10:00am EST on the day Coinbase becomes publicly traded. If Coinbase stock does not begin publicly trading by September 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “no”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). 124.00 544
23 Will ETH be above $1500 on February 3rd, 2021? Will Kim Kardashian or Kanye West file for divorce before March 1, 2021? https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-1500-on-february-3rd-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/will-kim-kardashian-or-kanye-west-file-for-divorce-before-march-1-2021 PolyMarket true 6.2112% 22.09% This is a market on whether Kanye West or Kim Kardashian will officially file for a divorce before March 1st 2021. Filing for divorce, in the context of this market, can be defined empirically as either an official announcement directly from either Kim or Kanye that they're getting divorced, or an official filing of divorce, including but not limited to certified copies of divorce decrees available from the Superior Court in the county where the decree was granted. This market will resolve "Yes" if the aforementioned conditions are met and "No" otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). 1049.00 173
24 How many subscribers will /r/wallstreetbets have on February 7, 2021? Donald Trump federally charged by February 20th? https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-subscribers-will-rwallstreetbets-have-on-february-7-2021 https://polymarket.com/market/donald-trump-federally-charged-by-february-20th PolyMarket false true none 3.84% This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed on or before February 20, 2021 by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before February 20, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). 1757.00 301
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data/polymarket-questions.json
View File

@ -1,43 +1,21 @@
[
{
"Title": "How many more tweets will be on the @ElonMusk account on February 3, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-elon-musk-account-on-february-3-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "649.00"
},
{
"Title": "Will Dogecoin be above $.069 on February 2nd?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-dogecoin-be-above-069-on-february-2nd",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "3.5382%",
"# Forecasts": "239.00"
},
{
"Title": "Will Tesla announce a Bitcoin purchase before March 1, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-tesla-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-march-1-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "15.5817%",
"# Forecasts": "1284.00"
"Percentage": "12.22%",
"Description": "This is a market on if Tesla ($TSLA) will announce either their intention to purchase Bitcoin ($BTC) off their balance sheet, the completion of such a purchase, or in any other way, ownership of BTC on their balance sheet. This announcement may come from either Tesla's official channels, or Elon Musk's official channels. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla satisfies any of the aforementioned resolution conditions before the resolution date, March 1, 2021, 12:00am EST. If, for any reason the aforementioned market conditions are not met by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"# Forecasts": "1333"
},
{
"Title": "Will Donald Trump's Twitter account be active on March 1, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-s-twitter-account-be-active-on-march-1-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "5.2869%",
"# Forecasts": "264.00"
},
{
"Title": "How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by March 1?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-senators-will-vote-to-convict-donald-trump-on-incitement-by-march-1",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "956.00"
"Percentage": "4.89%",
"Description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump's Twitter account will be reinstated and active on the resolution date, 12:00am EST on March 1, 2021. The resolution source will be the link to President Trump’s personal Twitter account, https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump. If the account is accessible and no longer blocked by a message stating something to the effect of “account suspended” upon the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If, upon the resolution date, https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump says \"account suspended\" or something similar, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"# Forecasts": "269"
},
{
"Title": "Who will the world's richest person be on February 27, 2021?",
@ -45,135 +23,125 @@
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "686.00"
},
{
"Title": "How many more tweets will be on the @DonaldJTrumpJr account by February 1, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-donald-j-trump-jr-account-by-february-1-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "2385.00"
},
{
"Title": "Will YFI total supply be greater than 30,000 by March 15th?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-yfi-total-supply-be-greater-than-30-000-by-march-15th",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "88.5820%",
"# Forecasts": "156.00"
},
{
"Title": "Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on March 1, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-1-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "96.0691%",
"# Forecasts": "3419.00"
},
{
"Title": "Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in The US by April 1, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "59.8311%",
"# Forecasts": "1062.00"
},
{
"Title": "Will $BTC break $50k before April 1st, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-btc-break-50k-before-april-1st-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "38.0059%",
"# Forecasts": "1486.00"
},
{
"Title": "Will Bitcoin or Tesla have a higher market cap on March 1, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-or-tesla-have-a-higher-market-cap-on-march-1-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "33.0425%",
"# Forecasts": "316.00"
},
{
"Title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "90.3575%",
"# Forecasts": "474.00"
},
{
"Title": "Will the Trail Blazers or the Bucks win their February 1st matchup?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-trail-blazers-or-the-bucks-win-their-february-1st-matchup",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "20.6931%",
"# Forecasts": "30.00"
},
{
"Title": "Will the Senate convict Donald Trump on impeachment by April 29, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-senate-convict-donald-trump-on-impeachment-before-june-1-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "7.0351%",
"# Forecasts": "640.00"
},
{
"Title": "Superbowl 55: Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-kansas-city-chiefs-win-superbowl-55",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "61.2180%",
"# Forecasts": "629.00"
},
{
"Title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "5.4605%",
"# Forecasts": "1401.00"
},
{
"Title": "Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be above 10% on March 15, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-above-10-on-march-15-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "7.8102%",
"# Forecasts": "96.00"
},
{
"Title": "$2000 stimulus checks by February 28, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/2000-stimulus-checks-by-february-28-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "27.2357%",
"# Forecasts": "1070.00"
},
{
"Title": "What rating will theneedledrop give Drake’s \"Certified Lover Boy\"?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-rating-will-theneedledrop-give-drake-s-certified-lover-boy",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "55.5800%",
"# Forecasts": "62.00"
},
{
"Title": "Will there be enough signatures for a vote on the recall of Gov. Newsom by March 17?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-gov-newsom-by-march-17",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "63.1510%",
"# Forecasts": "124.00"
"Description": "This is a market on who will be the world's richest person on February 27, 2021, 12PM EST, according to Forbes' billionaires list. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, current CEO of Amazon, Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla, and “Other“, representing anyone else being the top of the Forbes list. This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has the world's highest net worth in terms of USD on the resolution date. The market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he is the world's highest net worth individual in terms of USD on the resolution date. If for any reason, any individual other than Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk is listed as the highest net worth individual in the world on the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Other”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be [forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/](http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/).",
"# Forecasts": "774"
},
{
"Title": "Will ETH be above $1500 on February 3rd, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-1500-on-february-3rd-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "6.2112%",
"# Forecasts": "1049.00"
"Percentage": "66.80%",
"Description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $1,500 on February 3rd, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $1,500 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n",
"# Forecasts": "2797"
},
{
"Title": "How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by March 1?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-senators-will-vote-to-convict-donald-trump-on-incitement-by-march-1",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "This is a market on the number of U.S. Senators who will vote to convict Donald J. Trump on the charge of incitement of insurrection prior to March 1, 2021. If no such vote takes place prior to the resolution date, or if Trump is acquitted via voice vote or another procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, “52 or fewer\" will resolve to “Yes\". Should such a vote result in the conviction of Trump via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, “62 or more\" will resolve to “Yes\". The Vice President, as President of the Senate, is not a Senator for purposes of this market. The outcome corresponding to the number of U.S. Senators who vote to convict Trump on the charge of incitement will resolve to “Yes\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the guilty vote count on the corresponding legislative page of https://www.senate.gov/legislative.\n\nClarifying note: This market will resolve upon the first such Senate vote.",
"# Forecasts": "1008"
},
{
"Title": "Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be above 10% on March 15, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-above-10-on-march-15-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "10.62%",
"Description": "This is a market on if the DeFi Dominance metric, according to CoinGecko, will be above 10% on March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if DeFi Dominance is listed as being greater than or equal 10.0% on the resolution date. The market will resolve to “No“ if DeFi dominance is less than 10.0% at that time of resolution. The resolution source for this market will be the metric currently listed on [https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi](https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi) as “Defi Dominance (vs. Global)“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution date for this market will be March 15, 2021.",
"# Forecasts": "116"
},
{
"Title": "Will YFI total supply be greater than 30,000 by March 15th?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-yfi-total-supply-be-greater-than-30-000-by-march-15th",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "90.01%",
"Description": "This is a market on if the total supply of $YFI, the native token of yearn.finance, will be greater than 30,000 by March 15th, 2021, 4pm EST. Currently there is much debate around adding inflation to the current fixed supply of 30,000 YFI tokens, as a means of creating further incentive for team members and core devs to be committed to the project. If this happens, and the total supply of YFI exceeds 30,000 before the resolution date, the market will resolve to \"Yes\". If the total supply of YFI remains 30,000 on the resolution date, even if a governance proposal set to change that has been approved, the market will resolve to \"No\". If the token gets redeployed and a migration happens, where there is social consensus on a new YFI token that governs yearn.finance, that will be treated as YFI. The main resolution sources will be Coingecko (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/yearn-finance) and the current ERC20 contract (https://etherscan.io/token/0x0bc529c00c6401aef6d220be8c6ea1667f6ad93e).",
"# Forecasts": "181"
},
{
"Title": "Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in The US by April 1, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "61.91%",
"Description": "This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations\n\n ",
"# Forecasts": "1137"
},
{
"Title": "Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on March 1, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-1-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "95.79%",
"Description": "This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on March 1, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, [https://www.whitehouse.gov/](https://www.whitehouse.gov/)",
"# Forecasts": "3521"
},
{
"Title": "Will $BTC break $50k before April 1st, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-btc-break-50k-before-april-1st-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "38.77%",
"Description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $50,000 at any point before April 1st, 2021, 12:00am EST, according to Coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin. This market starts on January 4, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes“ whenever BTC breaks $50,000 according to Coinmarketcap, and if that condition is not met by April 1st, 2021, it will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"# Forecasts": "1543"
},
{
"Title": "Will Bitcoin or Tesla have a higher market cap on March 1, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-or-tesla-have-a-higher-market-cap-on-march-1-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "33.44%",
"Description": "This is a market on if Bitcoin ($BTC) or Tesla ($TSLA) will have the higher market capitalization on the resolution date, March 1, 2021, 4pm EST. If Bitcoin’s market capitalization (according to Coinmarketcap, based on circulating supply) is higher than Tesla’s at that time, this market will resolve to “Bitcoin”, and vice versa.\n\nThe resolution sources for this market will be the official website of the NASDAQ, https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla, for Tesla’s market capitalization, and https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ for Bitcoin’s market capitalization.",
"# Forecasts": "343"
},
{
"Title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "91.62%",
"Description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"# Forecasts": "486"
},
{
"Title": "Will there be enough signatures for a vote on the recall of Gov. Newsom by March 17?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-gov-newsom-by-march-17",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "63.94%",
"Description": "This is a market on if there will be enough petition signatures for a vote on the recall of California Governor Gavin Newson prior to March 17, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a recall election is triggered and \"No\" otherwise. The linked PredictIt question will be referenced as the leading resolution source, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom. This market will resolve when the PredictIt market is resolved, to the same outcome.",
"# Forecasts": "155"
},
{
"Title": "Will the Senate convict Donald Trump on impeachment by April 29, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-senate-convict-donald-trump-on-impeachment-before-june-1-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "7.24%",
"Description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will be convicted of one or more articles of impeachment prior to April 29, 2021, 11:59pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the U.S. Senate, by a vote of at least two-thirds of the Members present, convicts President Trump on one or more articles of impeachment. This market will resolve to “No“ if the U.S. Senate does not convict President Trump of any articles of impeachment by a vote of at least two-thirds of the Members present prior to the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be the equivalent PredictIt market, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7050/Will-the-Senate-convict-Donald-Trump-in-Biden's-first-100-days.\n",
"# Forecasts": "653"
},
{
"Title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "5.80%",
"Description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"# Forecasts": "1547"
},
{
"Title": "Superbowl 55: Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-kansas-city-chiefs-win-superbowl-55",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "61.48%",
"Description": "This is a market on whether the Kansas City Chiefs will win the NFL Super Bowl 55. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to https://www.nfl.com/, the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 55. If they are eliminated from the NFL playoffs beforehand, or they lose the Super Bowl game, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of any postponement of the Super Bowl, this market will not be resolved until the game is played, unless the Kansas City Chiefs are not competing in this match.\n\nNote: in the event the Chiefs make the Superbowl, this market may be rephrased to \"Chiefs vs Team 2\", as opposed to Chiefs winning the Superbowl. Ultimately, it will have the exact some resolution and meaning, but may be easier to interpret.\n\nNote 2 (1-25-21): Chiefs made the Superbowl and market outcomes have been changed from \"Yes | No\" to \"Chiefs | Bucs\".",
"# Forecasts": "672"
},
{
"Title": "How many subscribers will /r/wallstreetbets have on February 7, 2021?",
@ -181,27 +149,67 @@
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"# Forecasts": "1757.00"
"Description": "This is a market on the number of subscribers the r/wallstreetbets subreddit will have by the resolution date, February 7, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The options for this market are less than 6.5 million, 6.5-7.5 million, 7.5-8.5 million, 8.5-9.5 million, 9.5-10.5 million, and greater than 10.5 million. The market will resolve to whichever option corresponds to the resolution source's count of r/wallstreetbets' current subscribers. If r/wallstreetbets is inaccessible because of a ban or suspension at the time of market resolution, this market will resolve to \"less than 6.5 million\". If Reddit as a whole is offline at the time of market resolution, market resolution will be delayed until the earliest time at which the site is accessible. The resolution source for this market will be the \"reader\" count listed on https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"# Forecasts": "2934"
},
{
"title": "Will Coinbase delist Ripple (XRP) before they begin publicly trading?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-coinbase-delist-ripple-xrp-before-they-begin-publicly-trading",
"address": "0x361A583ef3A5f41Aa126465387b7f5e978F8A0C1"
"Title": "$2000 stimulus checks by February 28, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/2000-stimulus-checks-by-february-28-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "20.59%",
"Description": "This market concerns whether or not legislation will be signed into law by February 28, 2021, 11:59pm EST which includes direct government stimulus payments to US citizens of $2000. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date according to the official Congress website, regardless of if the stimulus checks have been paid out yet. This market will resolve to “No” if no such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be congress.gov/bill, the official website of Congress.\n\nClarifying Note: In the event of an amendment that effectively increases stimulus payments from $600 to $2000, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of an additional payment of $1400 to supplement existing $600 payments, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of a $2000 payment to supplement the existing $600 payment, this market will resolve to \"Yes\".",
"# Forecasts": "1146"
},
{
"title": "What rating will theneedledrop give Drake’s \"Certified Lover Boy\"?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-rating-will-theneedledrop-give-drake-s-certified-lover-boy",
"address": "0x5E1b4c3e4Cd53e72DdFd7783F2ee8C3E00B93A31",
"description": "This is a scalar market on what Anthony Fantano, aka theneedledrop, will rate Drake’s upcoming album, set to be titled “Certified Lover Boy”, in his Youtube review. The lower bound is 0 and the upper bound is 10. Ratings like “strong”, “light” and other similar words will be interpreted in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). For example, in the case of “a strong 6 to light 7”, the market would resolve to 7, while “a light to decent 6” would resolve to 6.25. A “Not Good” will resolve as 0. Market starts December 7th, 2020, and this market will be based on Drake's next album release after this date, even if it is not titled \"Certified Lover Boy\". In the unlikely event that theneedledrop does not rate Drake's upcoming album, this market will resolve to 5.\n\nAs this is a Scalar market, you can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short Token price corresponds with theneedledrop rating. Long and Short shares will settle proportionally to the outcome value. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC)."
},
{
"Title": "Will LINK be above $30 on February 10th?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-link-be-above-30-on-february-10th-1",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "16.43%",
"Description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Chainlink $LINK will be above $30 on February 10th, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/chainlink/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if LINK is trading above $30 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"# Forecasts": "84"
},
{
"Title": "Will the Warriors or the Celtics win their February 2nd matchup?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-warriors-or-the-celtics-win-their-february-2nd-matchup",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "0.03%",
"Description": "This is a market on which team will win the February 2nd, 2021 matchup between the Golden State Warriors and the Boston Celtics. In the event this game is delayed for whatever reason, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the game takes place. In the extraordinarily unlikely event the game is canceled altogether, the market will resolve to 50/50. In the event of overtime, this market will resolve to the eventual winner. Results of this market will be decided by official scores available on https://www.nba.com/.",
"# Forecasts": "525"
},
{
"Title": "Will Coinbase delist Ripple (XRP) before they begin publicly trading?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-coinbase-delist-ripple-xrp-before-they-begin-publicly-trading",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "97.62%",
"Description": "This is a market on if Coinbase will delist Ripple’s token, XRP, prior to the day they begin publicly trading. This market will resolve to “yes” if, before Coinbase stock begins trading, XRP has been delisted from Coinbase for US Users - meaning it can no longer be traded on either Coinbase or Coinbase Pro, for all Americans. This market will resolve to “no” if, for any reason, XRP is still available for trading to US Coinbase users on the day Coinbase begins publicly trading. The primary resolution source for this market will be Coinbase’s official webpage, which lists supported cryptocurrencies, https://help.coinbase.com/en/coinbase/getting-started/general-crypto-education/supported-cryptocurrencies, and specifically pertains to the US category. Even if XRP is available for trading via Coinbase in a jurisdiction other than the United States, or mentioned on the website or app, if it is not available for trading in the US, this market will resolve to “yes”. The resolution date for this market will be 10:00am EST on the day Coinbase becomes publicly traded. If Coinbase stock does not begin publicly trading by September 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “no”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"# Forecasts": "544"
},
{
"Title": " Will Kim Kardashian or Kanye West file for divorce before March 1, 2021?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-kim-kardashian-or-kanye-west-file-for-divorce-before-march-1-2021",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "21.3404%",
"# Forecasts": "169.00"
"Percentage": "22.09%",
"Description": "This is a market on whether Kanye West or Kim Kardashian will officially file for a divorce before March 1st 2021. Filing for divorce, in the context of this market, can be defined empirically as either an official announcement directly from either Kim or Kanye that they're getting divorced, or an official filing of divorce, including but not limited to certified copies of divorce decrees available from the Superior Court in the county where the decree was granted. This market will resolve \"Yes\" if the aforementioned conditions are met and \"No\" otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"# Forecasts": "173"
},
{
"Title": "Donald Trump federally charged by February 20th?",
"URL": "https://polymarket.com/market/donald-trump-federally-charged-by-february-20th",
"Platform": "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "3.9565%",
"# Forecasts": "292.00"
"Percentage": "3.84%",
"Description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed on or before February 20, 2021 by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before February 20, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"# Forecasts": "301"
}
]

604
data/predictit-questions.csv
View File

@ -1,95 +1,509 @@
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts"
"Which of these 5 European leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5717/Which-of-these-5-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will Trump pardon himself in his first term?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6453/Will-Trump-pardon-himself-in-his-first-term","PredictIt",true,"1%",
"Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Which party will win the 2020 House race in New York's 22nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6861/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-New-York's-22nd-District","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election","PredictIt",false,"none",
"How many U.S. House delegations will Republicans win in the 2020 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6925/How-many-US-House-delegations-will-Republicans-win-in-the-2020-election","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of State on Feb. 15?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6944/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-State-on-Feb-15","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021","PredictIt",true,"9%",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Defense on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6949/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Defense-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Labor on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6951/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Labor-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Attorney General on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6952/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Attorney-General-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022","PredictIt",true,"23%",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Treasury Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6957/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Treasury-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed HUD Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6958/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HUD-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed HHS Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6965/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HHS-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Commerce Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6966/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Commerce-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Homeland Security Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6971/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Homeland-Security-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Energy Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6972/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Energy-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022","PredictIt",true,"22%",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Interior Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6976/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Interior-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed CIA Director on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6977/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-CIA-Director-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Education on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6978/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Education-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Transportation Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6979/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Transportation-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Agriculture Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6980/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Agriculture-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed EPA Administrator on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6981/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-EPA-Administrator-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14","PredictIt",true,"56%",
"Will Pete Buttigieg be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6986/Will-Pete-Buttigieg-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1","PredictIt",true,"98%",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Veterans Affairs Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6987/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Veterans-Affairs-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Director of National Intelligence on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6989/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Director-of-National-Intelligence-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will Amy Klobuchar be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6990/Will-Amy-Klobuchar-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1","PredictIt",true,"1%",
"Will Elizabeth Warren be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6991/Will-Elizabeth-Warren-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1","PredictIt",true,"1%",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed OMB Director on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6992/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed U.S. Trade Representative on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6993/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-US-Trade-Representative-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021","PredictIt",true,"32%",
"Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary","PredictIt",true,"97%",
"Will Israel hold national elections for Knesset in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7007/Will-Israel-hold-national-elections-for-Knesset-in-2021","PredictIt",true,"99%",
"Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024","PredictIt",true,"42%",
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023","PredictIt",true,"22%",
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary","PredictIt",true,"25%",
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt",true,"13%",
"Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt",true,"37%",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed USAID Administrator on Mar. 16?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7020/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-USAID-Administrator-on-Mar-16","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt",true,"26%",
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Who will win the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7030/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Democratic-gubernatorial-primary","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021","PredictIt",true,"72%",
"How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7036/How-many-seats-will-Israel's-Likud-Party-win-in-the-next-Knesset-election","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom","PredictIt",true,"66%",
"Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will the Senate convict Donald Trump in Biden's first 100 days?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7050/Will-the-Senate-convict-Donald-Trump-in-Biden's-first-100-days","PredictIt",true,"7%",
"Will Lisa Murkowski be a Republican on April 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7051/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-a-Republican-on-April-1","PredictIt",true,"90%",
"Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination","PredictIt",false,"none",
"How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7054/How-many-Senators-will-vote-to-convict-Donald-Trump-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will Mitch McConnell vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7055/Will-Mitch-McConnell-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"15%",
"Will Mitt Romney vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7056/Will-Mitt-Romney-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"92%",
"Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will Susan Collins vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7058/Will-Susan-Collins-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"64%",
"Will John Thune vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7059/Will-John-Thune-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"9%",
"How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election","PredictIt",false,"none",
"How many Senators vote to confirm Pete Buttigieg as Transportation Secretary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7064/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Pete-Buttigieg-as-Transportation-Secretary","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will Thom Tillis vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7066/Will-Thom-Tillis-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"9%",
"Will Joe Manchin vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7067/Will-Joe-Manchin-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"92%",
"Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will Richard Burr vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7070/Will-Richard-Burr-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"9%",
"Will Rob Portman vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7071/Will-Rob-Portman-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"23%",
"Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1","PredictIt",true,"12%",
"How many Senators vote to confirm Gina Raimondo as Commerce Secretary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7073/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Gina-Raimondo-as-Commerce-Secretary","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will the Senate censure Josh Hawley before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7074/Will-the-Senate-censure-Josh-Hawley-before-May-1","PredictIt",true,"16%",
"Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed","PredictIt",true,"10%",
"How many Senators vote to confirm Alejandro Mayorkas as Homeland Security Sec.?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7076/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Alejandro-Mayorkas-as-Homeland-Security-Sec","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will Lisa Murkowski vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7077/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"76%",
"Will Italy hold national elections before June 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7078/Will-Italy-hold-national-elections-before-June-1","PredictIt",true,"21%",
"Will Ben Sasse vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7080/Will-Ben-Sasse-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"77%",
"How many Senators vote to confirm Jennifer Granholm as Energy Secretary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7081/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Jennifer-Granholm-as-Energy-Secretary","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary","PredictIt",true,"80%",
"Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021","PredictIt",true,"11%",
"Will Pat Toomey vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7084/Will-Pat-Toomey-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"64%",
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022","PredictIt",false,"none",
"How many Senators vote to confirm Marcia Fudge as HUD Secretary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7086/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Marcia-Fudge-as-HUD-Secretary","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7088/Will-Puerto-Rico-become-a-US-state-in-2021","PredictIt",true,"6%",
"Will Chuck Grassley vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7089/Will-Chuck-Grassley-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"6%",
"How many Senators vote to confirm L. Thomas-Greenfield as UN Ambassador by 3/15?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7090/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-L-Thomas-Greenfield-as-UN-Ambassador-by-3-15","PredictIt",false,"none",
"How many Biden Cabinet members will be confirmed by Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7091/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-be-confirmed-by-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by September 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7092/Will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-$950-per-hour-or-higher-by-September-1","PredictIt",true,"39%",
"How many Senators vote to confirm Tom Vilsack as Agriculture Sec. by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7093/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Tom-Vilsack-as-Agriculture-Sec-by-3-31","PredictIt",false,"none",
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","Description","# Forecasts"
"Which of these 5 European leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5717/Which-of-these-5-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt",false,"none","Following the launch of this market, the first among the officials named in the contracts in this market to cease to formally hold the office listed next to his or her name shall be the individual named in the contract. No additional contracts may be added to this market following its launch. In the event that the time and date upon which two or more of the listed individuals cease to formally hold their respective offices is identical or so similar as to be indistinguishable, as determined at PredictIt's sole discretion, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes, while all other contracts will resolve as No. At 11:59:59 p.m. (ET) 30 calendar days following an officially announced effective date of at least one listed individual's departure from such office, if this market is not already resolved due to insufficient clarity regarding the relative timing of the departure of two or more such individuals, the alphabetical tie breaker described above will be used to resolve this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: N/A
",
"Will Trump pardon himself in his first term?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6453/Will-Trump-pardon-himself-in-his-first-term","PredictIt",true,"1%","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 01/08/2021.
During his first term, President Donald Trump shall grant a pardon to himself for one or more criminal offences, charges or convictions. Such pardon will be considered to have been granted only if Mr. Trump himself appears on the official list of presidential pardons granted by President Trump, maintained by the U.S. Department of Justice's Office of the Pardon Attorney (available upon launch of this market at https://www.justice.gov/pardon/clemencyrecipients) by 11:59 pm on February 15, 2021 (the “End Date”).
A self-pardon for Mr. Trump that is announced but does not appear on such official list by the End Date shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve Yes. Subsequent removal, revocation or legal challenge to such a pardon grant that appears on the official list at any time before the End Date shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 02/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 01/08/2021 11:57 AM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: The first sentence of this rule is intended to include any ""blanket"" self-pardon.
",
"Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",
"Which party will win the 2020 House race in New York's 22nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6861/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-New-York's-22nd-District","PredictIt",false,"none","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 01/21/2021.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from New York's 22nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 01/21/2021 2:09 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: Should this race be ordered to be re-run, it will be considered to be a continuation of the 2020 election for purposes of this market.
",
"Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
Should the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No. Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.
Should the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",
"Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members. For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party’s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 01/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election. A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party.
For purposes of resolving this market, delegates and resident Commissioners who are members of the House shall not be considered.
Determination of the winners of House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",
"How many U.S. House delegations will Republicans win in the 2020 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6925/How-many-US-House-delegations-will-Republicans-win-in-the-2020-election","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number of U.S. House state delegations controlled by the Republican Party as a result of the 2020 general election. The Republican Party shall be considered to control any state delegation in which a majority of representatives have been elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable party preference as Republican on the day of the election. Should such preference be unidentifiable, a candidate shall be considered a Republican only if prior to the election he or she has most recently indicated an intention to caucus with Republicans.
Determination of a House seat won shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2020 U.S. House election results for such state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled.
Members of the House of Representatives who are ""delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of State on Feb. 15?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6944/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-State-on-Feb-15","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of State subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of State be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 02/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021","PredictIt",true,"8%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, at any point during the 2021 calendar year, there are more than nine current members of the United States Supreme Court.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 5:00 PM (ET)
",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Defense on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6949/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Defense-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Defense subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Defense be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Labor on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6951/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Labor-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Labor subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Labor be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Attorney General on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6952/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Attorney-General-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Attorney General subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Attorney General be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022","PredictIt",true,"24%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Harris and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.
The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Ms. Harris' previous presidential campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Treasury Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6957/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Treasury-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of the Treasury subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of the Treasury be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed HUD Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6958/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HUD-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed HHS Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6965/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HHS-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Health and Human Services be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Commerce Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6966/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Commerce-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Commerce subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Commerce be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Homeland Security Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6971/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Homeland-Security-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Homeland Security be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Energy Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6972/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Energy-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Energy subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Energy be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022","PredictIt",true,"21%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Mike Pence becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Pence and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.
The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Pence's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Interior Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6976/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Interior-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of the Interior subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of the Interior be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed CIA Director on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6977/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-CIA-Director-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Education on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6978/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Education-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Education subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Education be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Transportation Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6979/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Transportation-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Transportation subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Transportation be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Agriculture Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6980/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Agriculture-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Agriculture subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Agriculture be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed EPA Administrator on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6981/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-EPA-Administrator-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14","PredictIt",true,"48%","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 11/19/2020.
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 11/19/2020 9:55 AM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: The Rules expressly state that this market concerns whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be ""a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District."" If she is not a ballot-listed candidate in such primary in the district numbered NY-14, this market will resolve No.
",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Veterans Affairs Secretary on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6987/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Veterans-Affairs-Secretary-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Veterans Affairs subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Veterans Affairs be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed Director of National Intelligence on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6989/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Director-of-National-Intelligence-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Director of National Intelligence subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Director of National Intelligence be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Will Amy Klobuchar be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6990/Will-Amy-Klobuchar-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1","PredictIt",true,"1%","This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Amy Klobuchar has been confirmed by the U.S. Senate to serve in a Cabinet position before the End Date listed below.
For the purpose of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be defined as the Attorney General; the Secretaries of Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury, and Veterans Affairs; United States Trade Representative; and the heads of the Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management and Budget, Central Intelligence Agency, Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and Small Business Administration.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Will Elizabeth Warren be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6991/Will-Elizabeth-Warren-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1","PredictIt",true,"1%","This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Elizabeth Warren has been confirmed by the U.S. Senate to serve in a Cabinet position before the End Date listed below.
For the purpose of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be defined as the Attorney General; the Secretaries of Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury, and Veterans Affairs; United States Trade Representative; and the heads of the Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management and Budget, Central Intelligence Agency, Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and Small Business Administration.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed OMB Director on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6992/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Director of the Office of Management and Budget subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Director of the Office of Management and Budget be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed U.S. Trade Representative on Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6993/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-US-Trade-Representative-on-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as United States Trade Representative subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of United States Trade Representative be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021","PredictIt",true,"33%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, or by amending an existing Statement of Candidacy, designating a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election, or otherwise filing with the FEC a communication having the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for that election, before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Trump and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.
The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Trump's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",
"Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
For purposes of this market, only one candidate can represent a party listed in a contract. A candidate running as an independent would not be considered to represent the Republican party or Democratic party, even if that candidate otherwise identifies as a member of one of those parties.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",
"Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",
"Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary","PredictIt",true,"96%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Yang is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2021 Democratic primary election for mayor of New York City. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Yang running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",
"Will Israel hold national elections for Knesset in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7007/Will-Israel-hold-national-elections-for-Knesset-in-2021","PredictIt",true,"99%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Israel holds national elections for members of the Knesset during the 2021 calendar year.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
",
"Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024","PredictIt",true,"41%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a female candidate wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023","PredictIt",true,"20%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.
Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary","PredictIt",true,"25%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Senator from New York. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022","PredictIt",false,"none","The winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022","PredictIt",false,"none","The winner of the 2022 North Carolina general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",
"Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt",true,"12%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump Jr. is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Pennsylvania. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",
"Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt",true,"38%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Lara Lea Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from North Carolina. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",
"Who will be the Senate-confirmed USAID Administrator on Mar. 16?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7020/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-USAID-Administrator-on-Mar-16","PredictIt",false,"none","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 12/31/2020.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of USAID Administrator be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.
Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 12/31/2020 9:01 AM (ET)
Note: A typographical error in the title was corrected to Mar. 16, the End Date set forth in the Rules
",
"Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt",true,"26%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Ivanka Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Florida. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022","PredictIt",false,"none","The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",
"Who will win the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7030/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Democratic-gubernatorial-primary","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",
"Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021","PredictIt",true,"71%","This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Benjamin Netanyahu is prime minister of Israel upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source"").
Should that Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 06/30/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
",
"How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7036/How-many-seats-will-Israel's-Likud-Party-win-in-the-next-Knesset-election","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats in the Knesset won by the Likud Party in Israel's next legislative election.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",
"Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom","PredictIt",true,"67%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that proponents of the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom shall, by March 17, 2021, file recall petitions sufficient to trigger a recall election. Review of any such timely filed petitions for sufficiency to trigger such recall election need not be complete by March 17, 2021. Any extension of time that may be granted to recall efforts currently underway shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",
"Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source"").
Should that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET)
",
"Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",
"Will the Senate convict Donald Trump in Biden's first 100 days?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7050/Will-the-Senate-convict-Donald-Trump-in-Biden's-first-100-days","PredictIt",true,"8%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, after noon (ET) January 20, 2021 but before the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall, by a vote of at least two-thirds of the Members present, convict Donald J. Trump on one or more articles of impeachment.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Will Lisa Murkowski be a Republican on April 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7051/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-a-Republican-on-April-1","PredictIt",true,"91%","This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Lisa Murkowski publicly identifies herself as a member of the Republican Party as of the End Date listed below. Senator Murkowski's continued participation or membership in the Senate Republican Conference as of the End Date shall not be sufficient by itself to cause this market to resolve to Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)
",
"Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",
"How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7054/How-many-Senators-will-vote-to-convict-Donald-Trump-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number of members of the U.S. Senate casting votes to convict Donald J. Trump on the charge of incitement of insurrection, before the End Date listed below.
Should no such vote conclude before the End Date, or should such vote result in acquittal of Mr. Trump via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""50 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should such vote result in the conviction of Mr. Trump via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""67 or more"" shall resolve to Yes.
This market shall close upon the first such Senate vote. Any subsequent such Senate vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The Vice President, as President of the Senate, is not a Senator for purposes of this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and cloture or other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Will Mitch McConnell vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7055/Will-Mitch-McConnell-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"19%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (""Senate Vote""), and Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.
This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Will Mitt Romney vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7056/Will-Mitt-Romney-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"93%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (""Senate Vote""), and Senator Mitt Romney (R-UT) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.
This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",
"Will Susan Collins vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7058/Will-Susan-Collins-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"67%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (""Senate Vote""), and Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.
This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Will John Thune vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7059/Will-John-Thune-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"12%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (""Senate Vote""), and Senator John Thune (R-SD) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.
This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of parliamentary seats won by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the Netherlands' next general election.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",
"Will Thom Tillis vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7066/Will-Thom-Tillis-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"6%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (""Senate Vote""), and Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.
This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Will Joe Manchin vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7067/Will-Joe-Manchin-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"92%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (""Senate Vote""), and Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.
This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",
"Will Richard Burr vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7070/Will-Richard-Burr-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"10%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (""Senate Vote""), and Senator Richard Burr (R-NC) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.
This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Will Rob Portman vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7071/Will-Rob-Portman-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"28%","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 01/25/2021.
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (""Senate Vote""), and Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.
This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 01/25/2021 1:45 PM (ET)
Note: Senator Portman's state has been corrected to Ohio
",
"Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1","PredictIt",true,"12%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) before the End Date listed below.
A censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"How many Senators vote to confirm Gina Raimondo as Commerce Secretary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7073/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Gina-Raimondo-as-Commerce-Secretary","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Gina Raimondo to the position of Secretary of Commerce, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Raimondo to the position of Secretary of Commerce commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Raimondo be confirmed to position of Secretary of Commerce in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""67 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""92 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Raimondo to the position of Secretary of Commerce be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Will the Senate censure Josh Hawley before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7074/Will-the-Senate-censure-Josh-Hawley-before-May-1","PredictIt",true,"15%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) before the End Date listed below.
A censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed","PredictIt",true,"7%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $15 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Will Lisa Murkowski vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7077/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"81%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (""Senate Vote""), and Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.
This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Will Italy hold national elections before June 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7078/Will-Italy-hold-national-elections-before-June-1","PredictIt",true,"24%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that ltaly holds national legislative elections before the End Date listed below.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 05/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
",
"Will Ben Sasse vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7080/Will-Ben-Sasse-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"79%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (""Senate Vote""), and Senator Ben Sasse (R-NE) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.
This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"How many Senators vote to confirm Jennifer Granholm as Energy Secretary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7081/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Jennifer-Granholm-as-Energy-Secretary","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Jennifer Granholm to the position of Secretary of Energy, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Granholm to the position of Secretary of Energy commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Granholm be confirmed to position of Secretary of Energy in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""67 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""92 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Granholm to the position of Secretary of Energy be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary","PredictIt",true,"79%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins the 2022 Arkansas Republican gubernatorial primary election. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",
"Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021","PredictIt",true,"11%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the District of Columbia is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present District of Columbia from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Will Pat Toomey vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7084/Will-Pat-Toomey-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"67%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (""Senate Vote""), and Senator Pat Toomey (R-PA) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.
This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022","PredictIt",false,"none","The winner of the 2022 Ohio general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",
"How many Senators vote to confirm Marcia Fudge as HUD Secretary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7086/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Marcia-Fudge-as-HUD-Secretary","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Rep. Marcia Fudge (D-OH) to the position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Rep. Fudge to the position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Rep. Fudge be confirmed to position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""61 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""86 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Rep. Fudge to the position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
",
"Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7088/Will-Puerto-Rico-become-a-US-state-in-2021","PredictIt",true,"7%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present commonwealth from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Will Chuck Grassley vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7089/Will-Chuck-Grassley-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29","PredictIt",true,"7%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (""Senate Vote""), and Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.
This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"How many Senators vote to confirm L. Thomas-Greenfield as UN Ambassador by 3/15?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7090/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-L-Thomas-Greenfield-as-UN-Ambassador-by-3-15","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Linda Thomas-Greenfield to the position of Ambassador to the United Nations, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Thomas-Greenfield to the position of Ambassador to the United Nations commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Thomas-Greenfield be confirmed to position of Ambassador to the United Nations in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""58 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""83 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Thomas-Greenfield to the position of Ambassador to the United Nations be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"How many Biden Cabinet members will be confirmed by Mar. 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7091/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-be-confirmed-by-Mar-1","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the U.S. Cabinet who have been confirmed by the Senate to their respective positions by the End Date listed below.
For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions –
The Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs --
And the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative --
And the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management and Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science and Technology Policy and Small Business Administration.
Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by September 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7092/Will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-$950-per-hour-or-higher-by-September-1","PredictIt",true,"40%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 09/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"How many Senators vote to confirm Tom Vilsack as Agriculture Sec. by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7093/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Tom-Vilsack-as-Agriculture-Sec-by-3-31","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Tom Vilsack to the position of Secretary of Agriculture, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Vilsack to the position of Secretary of Agriculture commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Vilsack be confirmed to position of Secretary of Agriculture in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""70 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""95 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Vilsack to the position of Secretary of Agriculture be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Will the Senate subpoena any witnesses in trial of President Trump by Feb. 28?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7094/Will-the-Senate-subpoena-any-witnesses-in-trial-of-President-Trump-by-Feb-28","PredictIt",true,"24%","This market shall resolve to Yes if, in the trial of Donald J. Trump, the Senate shall vote, by the End Date listed below, to approve, issue, authorize or enforce a subpoena of any specific witness or witnesses. A vote to hear testimony from a witness who appears voluntarily without being subpoenaed will not cause this market to resolve Yes.
A vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences during the prescribed period of time, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after expiration. The results of the vote need not be available upon expiration.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 02/28/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
"Will Liz Cheney be House Republican Conference Chair on March 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7095/Will-Liz-Cheney-be-House-Republican-Conference-Chair-on-March-1","PredictIt",true,"75%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) serves in the position of House Republican Conference Chair upon the End Date listed below.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)
",
"Will Marjorie Taylor Greene sit on the House Education Committee on March 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7096/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-sit-on-the-House-Education-Committee-on-March-1","PredictIt",true,"18%","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is a member of, or is assigned to, the House Committee on Education and Labor upon the End Date listed below.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)
",
"How many Senators vote to confirm Denis McDonough as VA Secretary by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7097/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Denis-McDonough-as-VA-Secretary-by-3-31","PredictIt",false,"none","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Denis McDonough to the position of Secretary of Veterans Affairs, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. McDonough to the position of Secretary of Veterans Affairs commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. McDonough be confirmed to position of Secretary of Veterans Affairs in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""70 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""95 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. McDonough to the position of Secretary of Veterans Affairs be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
",
1 Title URL Platform Binary question? Percentage Description # Forecasts
2 Which of these 5 European leaders will leave office next? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5717/Which-of-these-5-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next PredictIt false none Following the launch of this market, the first among the officials named in the contracts in this market to cease to formally hold the office listed next to his or her name shall be the individual named in the contract. No additional contracts may be added to this market following its launch. In the event that the time and date upon which two or more of the listed individuals cease to formally hold their respective offices is identical or so similar as to be indistinguishable, as determined at PredictIt's sole discretion, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes, while all other contracts will resolve as No. At 11:59:59 p.m. (ET) 30 calendar days following an officially announced effective date of at least one listed individual's departure from such office, if this market is not already resolved due to insufficient clarity regarding the relative timing of the departure of two or more such individuals, the alphabetical tie breaker described above will be used to resolve this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: N/A
3 Will Trump pardon himself in his first term? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6453/Will-Trump-pardon-himself-in-his-first-term PredictIt true 1% Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 01/08/2021. During his first term, President Donald Trump shall grant a pardon to himself for one or more criminal offences, charges or convictions. Such pardon will be considered to have been granted only if Mr. Trump himself appears on the official list of presidential pardons granted by President Trump, maintained by the U.S. Department of Justice's Office of the Pardon Attorney (available upon launch of this market at https://www.justice.gov/pardon/clemencyrecipients) by 11:59 pm on February 15, 2021 (the “End Date”). A self-pardon for Mr. Trump that is announced but does not appear on such official list by the End Date shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve Yes. Subsequent removal, revocation or legal challenge to such a pardon grant that appears on the official list at any time before the End Date shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 02/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET) Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 01/08/2021 11:57 AM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: The first sentence of this rule is intended to include any "blanket" self-pardon.
4 Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
5 Which party will win the 2020 House race in New York's 22nd District? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6861/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-New-York's-22nd-District PredictIt false none Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 01/21/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from New York's 22nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 01/21/2021 2:09 PM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: Should this race be ordered to be re-run, it will be considered to be a continuation of the 2020 election for purposes of this market.
6 Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Should the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No. Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. Should the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
7 Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members. For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party’s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 01/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)
8 Which party will win the House in the 2022 election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election. A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party. For purposes of resolving this market, delegates and resident Commissioners who are members of the House shall not be considered. Determination of the winners of House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
9 How many U.S. House delegations will Republicans win in the 2020 election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6925/How-many-US-House-delegations-will-Republicans-win-in-the-2020-election PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number of U.S. House state delegations controlled by the Republican Party as a result of the 2020 general election. The Republican Party shall be considered to control any state delegation in which a majority of representatives have been elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable party preference as Republican on the day of the election. Should such preference be unidentifiable, a candidate shall be considered a Republican only if prior to the election he or she has most recently indicated an intention to caucus with Republicans. Determination of a House seat won shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2020 U.S. House election results for such state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
10 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of State on Feb. 15? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6944/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-State-on-Feb-15 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of State subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of State be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 02/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
11 Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021 PredictIt true 9% 8% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, at any point during the 2021 calendar year, there are more than nine current members of the United States Supreme Court. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 5:00 PM (ET)
12 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Defense on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6949/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Defense-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Defense subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Defense be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
13 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Labor on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6951/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Labor-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Labor subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Labor be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
14 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Attorney General on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6952/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Attorney-General-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Attorney General subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Attorney General be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
15 Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022 PredictIt true 23% 24% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Harris and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Ms. Harris' previous presidential campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)
16 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Treasury Secretary on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6957/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Treasury-Secretary-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of the Treasury subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of the Treasury be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
17 Who will be the Senate-confirmed HUD Secretary on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6958/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HUD-Secretary-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
18 Who will be the Senate-confirmed HHS Secretary on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6965/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HHS-Secretary-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Health and Human Services be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
19 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Commerce Secretary on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6966/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Commerce-Secretary-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Commerce subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Commerce be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
20 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Homeland Security Secretary on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6971/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Homeland-Security-Secretary-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Homeland Security be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
21 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Energy Secretary on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6972/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Energy-Secretary-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Energy subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Energy be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
22 Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022 PredictIt true 22% 21% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Mike Pence becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Pence and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Pence's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)
23 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Interior Secretary on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6976/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Interior-Secretary-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of the Interior subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of the Interior be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
24 Who will be the Senate-confirmed CIA Director on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6977/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-CIA-Director-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
25 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Education on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6978/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Education-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Education subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Education be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
26 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Transportation Secretary on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6979/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Transportation-Secretary-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Transportation subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Transportation be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
27 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Agriculture Secretary on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6980/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Agriculture-Secretary-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Agriculture subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Agriculture be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
28 Who will be the Senate-confirmed EPA Administrator on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6981/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-EPA-Administrator-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
29 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14 PredictIt true 56% 48% Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 11/19/2020. This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 11/19/2020 9:55 AM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: The Rules expressly state that this market concerns whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be "a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District." If she is not a ballot-listed candidate in such primary in the district numbered NY-14, this market will resolve No.
30 Will Pete Buttigieg be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1? Who will be the Senate-confirmed Veterans Affairs Secretary on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6986/Will-Pete-Buttigieg-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6987/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Veterans-Affairs-Secretary-on-Mar-1 PredictIt true false 98% none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Veterans Affairs subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Veterans Affairs be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
31 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Veterans Affairs Secretary on Mar. 1? Who will be the Senate-confirmed Director of National Intelligence on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6987/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Veterans-Affairs-Secretary-on-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6989/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Director-of-National-Intelligence-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Director of National Intelligence subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Director of National Intelligence be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
32 Who will be the Senate-confirmed Director of National Intelligence on Mar. 1? Will Amy Klobuchar be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6989/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Director-of-National-Intelligence-on-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6990/Will-Amy-Klobuchar-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1 PredictIt false true none 1% This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Amy Klobuchar has been confirmed by the U.S. Senate to serve in a Cabinet position before the End Date listed below. For the purpose of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be defined as the Attorney General; the Secretaries of Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury, and Veterans Affairs; United States Trade Representative; and the heads of the Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management and Budget, Central Intelligence Agency, Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and Small Business Administration. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
33 Will Amy Klobuchar be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1? Will Elizabeth Warren be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6990/Will-Amy-Klobuchar-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6991/Will-Elizabeth-Warren-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1 PredictIt true 1% This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Elizabeth Warren has been confirmed by the U.S. Senate to serve in a Cabinet position before the End Date listed below. For the purpose of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be defined as the Attorney General; the Secretaries of Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury, and Veterans Affairs; United States Trade Representative; and the heads of the Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management and Budget, Central Intelligence Agency, Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and Small Business Administration. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
34 Will Elizabeth Warren be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1? Who will be the Senate-confirmed OMB Director on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6991/Will-Elizabeth-Warren-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6992/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director-on-Mar-1 PredictIt true false 1% none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Director of the Office of Management and Budget subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Director of the Office of Management and Budget be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
35 Who will be the Senate-confirmed OMB Director on Mar. 1? Who will be the Senate-confirmed U.S. Trade Representative on Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6992/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director-on-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6993/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-US-Trade-Representative-on-Mar-1 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as United States Trade Representative subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of United States Trade Representative be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
36 Who will be the Senate-confirmed U.S. Trade Representative on Mar. 1? Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6993/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-US-Trade-Representative-on-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021 PredictIt false true none 33% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, or by amending an existing Statement of Candidacy, designating a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election, or otherwise filing with the FEC a communication having the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for that election, before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Trump and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Trump's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
37 Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021? Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election PredictIt true false 32% none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
38 Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election? Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. For purposes of this market, only one candidate can represent a party listed in a contract. A candidate running as an independent would not be considered to represent the Republican party or Democratic party, even if that candidate otherwise identifies as a member of one of those parties. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
39 Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election? Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
40 Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021? Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary PredictIt false true none 96% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Yang is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2021 Democratic primary election for mayor of New York City. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Yang running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
41 Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary? Will Israel hold national elections for Knesset in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7007/Will-Israel-hold-national-elections-for-Knesset-in-2021 PredictIt true 97% 99% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Israel holds national elections for members of the Knesset during the 2021 calendar year. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
42 Will Israel hold national elections for Knesset in 2021? Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7007/Will-Israel-hold-national-elections-for-Knesset-in-2021 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024 PredictIt true 99% 41% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a female candidate wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
43 Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024? Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023 PredictIt true 42% 20% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)
44 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023? Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary PredictIt true 22% 25% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Senator from New York. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
45 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary? Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022 PredictIt true false 25% none The winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
46 Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022? Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022 PredictIt false none The winner of the 2022 North Carolina general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
47 Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022? Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary PredictIt false true none 12% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump Jr. is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Pennsylvania. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
48 Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary? Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary PredictIt true 13% 38% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Lara Lea Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from North Carolina. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
49 Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary? Who will be the Senate-confirmed USAID Administrator on Mar. 16? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7020/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-USAID-Administrator-on-Mar-16 PredictIt true false 37% none Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 12/31/2020. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of USAID Administrator be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No. Contracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET) Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 12/31/2020 9:01 AM (ET) Note: A typographical error in the title was corrected to Mar. 16, the End Date set forth in the Rules
50 Who will be the Senate-confirmed USAID Administrator on Mar. 16? Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7020/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-USAID-Administrator-on-Mar-16 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary PredictIt false true none 26% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Ivanka Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Florida. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
51 Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary? Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022 PredictIt true false 26% none The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
52 Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022? Who will win the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7030/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Democratic-gubernatorial-primary PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
53 Who will win the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary? Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7030/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Democratic-gubernatorial-primary https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021 PredictIt false true none 71% This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Benjamin Netanyahu is prime minister of Israel upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"). Should that Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 06/30/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
54 Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021? How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7036/How-many-seats-will-Israel's-Likud-Party-win-in-the-next-Knesset-election PredictIt true false 72% none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats in the Knesset won by the Likud Party in Israel's next legislative election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
55 How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election? Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7036/How-many-seats-will-Israel's-Likud-Party-win-in-the-next-Knesset-election https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom PredictIt false true none 67% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that proponents of the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom shall, by March 17, 2021, file recall petitions sufficient to trigger a recall election. Review of any such timely filed petitions for sufficiency to trigger such recall election need not be complete by March 17, 2021. Any extension of time that may be granted to recall efforts currently underway shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
56 Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom? Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31 PredictIt true false 66% none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source"). Should that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET)
57 Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31? Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
58 Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination? Will the Senate convict Donald Trump in Biden's first 100 days? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7050/Will-the-Senate-convict-Donald-Trump-in-Biden's-first-100-days PredictIt false true none 8% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, after noon (ET) January 20, 2021 but before the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall, by a vote of at least two-thirds of the Members present, convict Donald J. Trump on one or more articles of impeachment. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
59 Will the Senate convict Donald Trump in Biden's first 100 days? Will Lisa Murkowski be a Republican on April 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7050/Will-the-Senate-convict-Donald-Trump-in-Biden's-first-100-days https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7051/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-a-Republican-on-April-1 PredictIt true 7% 91% This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Lisa Murkowski publicly identifies herself as a member of the Republican Party as of the End Date listed below. Senator Murkowski's continued participation or membership in the Senate Republican Conference as of the End Date shall not be sufficient by itself to cause this market to resolve to Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)
60 Will Lisa Murkowski be a Republican on April 1? Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7051/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-a-Republican-on-April-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination PredictIt true false 90% none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
61 Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination? How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by Apr. 29? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7054/How-many-Senators-will-vote-to-convict-Donald-Trump-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number of members of the U.S. Senate casting votes to convict Donald J. Trump on the charge of incitement of insurrection, before the End Date listed below. Should no such vote conclude before the End Date, or should such vote result in acquittal of Mr. Trump via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "50 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should such vote result in the conviction of Mr. Trump via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "67 or more" shall resolve to Yes. This market shall close upon the first such Senate vote. Any subsequent such Senate vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The Vice President, as President of the Senate, is not a Senator for purposes of this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and cloture or other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
62 How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by Apr. 29? Will Mitch McConnell vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7054/How-many-Senators-will-vote-to-convict-Donald-Trump-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7055/Will-Mitch-McConnell-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 PredictIt false true none 19% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
63 Will Mitch McConnell vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? Will Mitt Romney vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7055/Will-Mitch-McConnell-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7056/Will-Mitt-Romney-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 PredictIt true 15% 93% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Mitt Romney (R-UT) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
64 Will Mitt Romney vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7056/Will-Mitt-Romney-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination PredictIt true false 92% none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
65 Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? Will Susan Collins vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7058/Will-Susan-Collins-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 PredictIt false true none 67% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
66 Will Susan Collins vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? Will John Thune vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7058/Will-Susan-Collins-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7059/Will-John-Thune-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 PredictIt true 64% 12% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator John Thune (R-SD) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
67 Will John Thune vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7059/Will-John-Thune-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election PredictIt true false 9% none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of parliamentary seats won by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the Netherlands' next general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
68 How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election? Will Thom Tillis vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7066/Will-Thom-Tillis-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 PredictIt false true none 6% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
69 How many Senators vote to confirm Pete Buttigieg as Transportation Secretary? Will Joe Manchin vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7064/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Pete-Buttigieg-as-Transportation-Secretary https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7067/Will-Joe-Manchin-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 PredictIt false true none 92% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
70 Will Thom Tillis vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7066/Will-Thom-Tillis-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021 PredictIt true false 9% none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
71 Will Joe Manchin vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? Will Richard Burr vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7067/Will-Joe-Manchin-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7070/Will-Richard-Burr-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 PredictIt true 92% 10% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Richard Burr (R-NC) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
72 Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021? Will Rob Portman vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7071/Will-Rob-Portman-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 PredictIt false true none 28% Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 01/25/2021. This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET) Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 01/25/2021 1:45 PM (ET) Note: Senator Portman's state has been corrected to Ohio
73 Will Richard Burr vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7070/Will-Richard-Burr-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1 PredictIt true 9% 12% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) before the End Date listed below. A censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
74 Will Rob Portman vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? How many Senators vote to confirm Gina Raimondo as Commerce Secretary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7071/Will-Rob-Portman-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7073/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Gina-Raimondo-as-Commerce-Secretary PredictIt true false 23% none The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Gina Raimondo to the position of Secretary of Commerce, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Raimondo to the position of Secretary of Commerce commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Raimondo be confirmed to position of Secretary of Commerce in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "67 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "92 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Raimondo to the position of Secretary of Commerce be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
75 Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1? Will the Senate censure Josh Hawley before May 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7074/Will-the-Senate-censure-Josh-Hawley-before-May-1 PredictIt true 12% 15% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) before the End Date listed below. A censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
76 How many Senators vote to confirm Gina Raimondo as Commerce Secretary? Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7073/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Gina-Raimondo-as-Commerce-Secretary https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed PredictIt false true none 7% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $15 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
77 Will the Senate censure Josh Hawley before May 1? Will Lisa Murkowski vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7074/Will-the-Senate-censure-Josh-Hawley-before-May-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7077/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 PredictIt true 16% 81% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
78 Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed? Will Italy hold national elections before June 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7078/Will-Italy-hold-national-elections-before-June-1 PredictIt true 10% 24% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that ltaly holds national legislative elections before the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 05/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
79 How many Senators vote to confirm Alejandro Mayorkas as Homeland Security Sec.? Will Ben Sasse vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7076/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Alejandro-Mayorkas-as-Homeland-Security-Sec https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7080/Will-Ben-Sasse-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 PredictIt false true none 79% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Ben Sasse (R-NE) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
80 Will Lisa Murkowski vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? How many Senators vote to confirm Jennifer Granholm as Energy Secretary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7077/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7081/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Jennifer-Granholm-as-Energy-Secretary PredictIt true false 76% none The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Jennifer Granholm to the position of Secretary of Energy, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Granholm to the position of Secretary of Energy commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Granholm be confirmed to position of Secretary of Energy in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "67 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "92 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Granholm to the position of Secretary of Energy be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
81 Will Italy hold national elections before June 1? Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7078/Will-Italy-hold-national-elections-before-June-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary PredictIt true 21% 79% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins the 2022 Arkansas Republican gubernatorial primary election. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
82 Will Ben Sasse vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7080/Will-Ben-Sasse-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021 PredictIt true 77% 11% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the District of Columbia is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present District of Columbia from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
83 How many Senators vote to confirm Jennifer Granholm as Energy Secretary? Will Pat Toomey vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7081/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Jennifer-Granholm-as-Energy-Secretary https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7084/Will-Pat-Toomey-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 PredictIt false true none 67% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Pat Toomey (R-PA) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
84 Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary? Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022 PredictIt true false 80% none The winner of the 2022 Ohio general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
85 Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021? How many Senators vote to confirm Marcia Fudge as HUD Secretary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7086/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Marcia-Fudge-as-HUD-Secretary PredictIt true false 11% none The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Rep. Marcia Fudge (D-OH) to the position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Rep. Fudge to the position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Rep. Fudge be confirmed to position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "61 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "86 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Rep. Fudge to the position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
86 Will Pat Toomey vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7084/Will-Pat-Toomey-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary PredictIt true false 64% none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
87 Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022? Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7088/Will-Puerto-Rico-become-a-US-state-in-2021 PredictIt false true none 7% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present commonwealth from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
88 How many Senators vote to confirm Marcia Fudge as HUD Secretary? Will Chuck Grassley vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7086/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Marcia-Fudge-as-HUD-Secretary https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7089/Will-Chuck-Grassley-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 PredictIt false true none 7% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection ("Senate Vote"), and Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. This market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Any Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
89 Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary? How many Senators vote to confirm L. Thomas-Greenfield as UN Ambassador by 3/15? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7090/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-L-Thomas-Greenfield-as-UN-Ambassador-by-3-15 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Linda Thomas-Greenfield to the position of Ambassador to the United Nations, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Thomas-Greenfield to the position of Ambassador to the United Nations commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Thomas-Greenfield be confirmed to position of Ambassador to the United Nations in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "58 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "83 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Thomas-Greenfield to the position of Ambassador to the United Nations be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
90 Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021? How many Biden Cabinet members will be confirmed by Mar. 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7088/Will-Puerto-Rico-become-a-US-state-in-2021 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7091/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-be-confirmed-by-Mar-1 PredictIt true false 6% none The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the U.S. Cabinet who have been confirmed by the Senate to their respective positions by the End Date listed below. For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions – The Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs -- And the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative -- And the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management and Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science and Technology Policy and Small Business Administration. Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
91 Will Chuck Grassley vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29? Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by September 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7089/Will-Chuck-Grassley-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7092/Will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-$950-per-hour-or-higher-by-September-1 PredictIt true 6% 40% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 09/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
92 How many Senators vote to confirm L. Thomas-Greenfield as UN Ambassador by 3/15? How many Senators vote to confirm Tom Vilsack as Agriculture Sec. by 3/31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7090/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-L-Thomas-Greenfield-as-UN-Ambassador-by-3-15 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7093/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Tom-Vilsack-as-Agriculture-Sec-by-3-31 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Tom Vilsack to the position of Secretary of Agriculture, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Vilsack to the position of Secretary of Agriculture commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Vilsack be confirmed to position of Secretary of Agriculture in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "70 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "95 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Vilsack to the position of Secretary of Agriculture be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
93 How many Biden Cabinet members will be confirmed by Mar. 1? Will the Senate subpoena any witnesses in trial of President Trump by Feb. 28? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7091/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-be-confirmed-by-Mar-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7094/Will-the-Senate-subpoena-any-witnesses-in-trial-of-President-Trump-by-Feb-28 PredictIt false true none 24% This market shall resolve to Yes if, in the trial of Donald J. Trump, the Senate shall vote, by the End Date listed below, to approve, issue, authorize or enforce a subpoena of any specific witness or witnesses. A vote to hear testimony from a witness who appears voluntarily without being subpoenaed will not cause this market to resolve Yes. A vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences during the prescribed period of time, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after expiration. The results of the vote need not be available upon expiration. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 02/28/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
94 Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by September 1? Will Liz Cheney be House Republican Conference Chair on March 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7092/Will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-$950-per-hour-or-higher-by-September-1 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7095/Will-Liz-Cheney-be-House-Republican-Conference-Chair-on-March-1 PredictIt true 39% 75% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) serves in the position of House Republican Conference Chair upon the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)
95 How many Senators vote to confirm Tom Vilsack as Agriculture Sec. by 3/31? Will Marjorie Taylor Greene sit on the House Education Committee on March 1? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7093/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Tom-Vilsack-as-Agriculture-Sec-by-3-31 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7096/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-sit-on-the-House-Education-Committee-on-March-1 PredictIt false true none 18% This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is a member of, or is assigned to, the House Committee on Education and Labor upon the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)
96 How many Senators vote to confirm Denis McDonough as VA Secretary by 3/31? https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7097/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Denis-McDonough-as-VA-Secretary-by-3-31 PredictIt false none The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Denis McDonough to the position of Secretary of Veterans Affairs, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. McDonough to the position of Secretary of Veterans Affairs commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. McDonough be confirmed to position of Secretary of Veterans Affairs in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range "70 or fewer" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range "95 or more" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. McDonough to the position of Secretary of Veterans Affairs be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
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data/predictit-questions.json
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@ -4,657 +4,759 @@
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5717/Which-of-these-5-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Following the launch of this market, the first among the officials named in the contracts in this market to cease to formally hold the office listed next to his or her name shall be the individual named in the contract. No additional contracts may be added to this market following its launch. In the event that the time and date upon which two or more of the listed individuals cease to formally hold their respective offices is identical or so similar as to be indistinguishable, as determined at PredictIt's sole discretion, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes, while all other contracts will resolve as No. At 11:59:59 p.m. (ET) 30 calendar days following an officially announced effective date of at least one listed individual's departure from such office, if this market is not already resolved due to insufficient clarity regarding the relative timing of the departure of two or more such individuals, the alphabetical tie breaker described above will be used to resolve this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: N/A\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will Trump pardon himself in his first term?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6453/Will-Trump-pardon-himself-in-his-first-term",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "1%"
"Percentage": "1%",
"Description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 01/08/2021.\nDuring his first term, President Donald Trump shall grant a pardon to himself for one or more criminal offences, charges or convictions. Such pardon will be considered to have been granted only if Mr. Trump himself appears on the official list of presidential pardons granted by President Trump, maintained by the U.S. Department of Justice's Office of the Pardon Attorney (available upon launch of this market at https://www.justice.gov/pardon/clemencyrecipients) by 11:59 pm on February 15, 2021 (the “End Date”).\nA self-pardon for Mr. Trump that is announced but does not appear on such official list by the End Date shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve Yes. Subsequent removal, revocation or legal challenge to such a pardon grant that appears on the official list at any time before the End Date shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 01/08/2021 11:57 AM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: The first sentence of this rule is intended to include any \"blanket\" self-pardon.\n"
},
{
"Title": "Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n"
},
{
"Title": "Which party will win the 2020 House race in New York's 22nd District?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6861/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-New-York's-22nd-District",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 01/21/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from New York's 22nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 01/21/2021 2:09 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: Should this race be ordered to be re-run, it will be considered to be a continuation of the 2020 election for purposes of this market.\n"
},
{
"Title": "Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.\nShould the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No. Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nShould the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n"
},
{
"Title": "Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members. For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party’s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 01/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election. A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party.\nFor purposes of resolving this market, delegates and resident Commissioners who are members of the House shall not be considered.\nDetermination of the winners of House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.\nIf there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n"
},
{
"Title": "How many U.S. House delegations will Republicans win in the 2020 election?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6925/How-many-US-House-delegations-will-Republicans-win-in-the-2020-election",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number of U.S. House state delegations controlled by the Republican Party as a result of the 2020 general election. The Republican Party shall be considered to control any state delegation in which a majority of representatives have been elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable party preference as Republican on the day of the election. Should such preference be unidentifiable, a candidate shall be considered a Republican only if prior to the election he or she has most recently indicated an intention to caucus with Republicans.\nDetermination of a House seat won shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2020 U.S. House election results for such state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled.\nMembers of the House of Representatives who are \"delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.\nIf there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n"
},
{
"Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of State on Feb. 15?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6944/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-State-on-Feb-15",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of State subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of State be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "9%"
"Percentage": "8%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, at any point during the 2021 calendar year, there are more than nine current members of the United States Supreme Court.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 5:00 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Defense on Mar. 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6949/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Defense-on-Mar-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Defense subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Defense be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Labor on Mar. 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6951/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Labor-on-Mar-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Labor subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Labor be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Attorney General on Mar. 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6952/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Attorney-General-on-Mar-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Attorney General subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Attorney General be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "23%"
"Percentage": "24%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Harris and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nThe filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Ms. Harris' previous presidential campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Treasury Secretary on Mar. 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6957/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Treasury-Secretary-on-Mar-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of the Treasury subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of the Treasury be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed HUD Secretary on Mar. 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6958/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HUD-Secretary-on-Mar-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed HHS Secretary on Mar. 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6965/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-HHS-Secretary-on-Mar-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Health and Human Services be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Commerce Secretary on Mar. 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6966/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Commerce-Secretary-on-Mar-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Commerce subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Commerce be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Homeland Security Secretary on Mar. 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6971/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Homeland-Security-Secretary-on-Mar-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Homeland Security be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Energy Secretary on Mar. 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6972/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Energy-Secretary-on-Mar-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Energy subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Energy be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "22%"
"Percentage": "21%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Mike Pence becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Pence and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nThe filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Pence's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Interior Secretary on Mar. 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6976/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Interior-Secretary-on-Mar-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of the Interior subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of the Interior be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed CIA Director on Mar. 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6977/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-CIA-Director-on-Mar-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Education on Mar. 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6978/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Secretary-of-Education-on-Mar-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Education subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Education be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Transportation Secretary on Mar. 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6979/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Transportation-Secretary-on-Mar-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Transportation subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Transportation be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Agriculture Secretary on Mar. 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6980/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Agriculture-Secretary-on-Mar-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Agriculture subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Agriculture be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed EPA Administrator on Mar. 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6981/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-EPA-Administrator-on-Mar-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 Democratic primary in NY-14?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6983/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-Democratic-primary-in-NY-14",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "56%"
},
{
"Title": "Will Pete Buttigieg be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6986/Will-Pete-Buttigieg-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "98%"
"Percentage": "48%",
"Description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 11/19/2020.\nThis market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 11/19/2020 9:55 AM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: The Rules expressly state that this market concerns whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be \"a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District.\" If she is not a ballot-listed candidate in such primary in the district numbered NY-14, this market will resolve No.\n"
},
{
"Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Veterans Affairs Secretary on Mar. 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6987/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Veterans-Affairs-Secretary-on-Mar-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as U.S. Secretary of Veterans Affairs subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Secretary of Veterans Affairs be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed Director of National Intelligence on Mar. 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6989/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-Director-of-National-Intelligence-on-Mar-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Director of National Intelligence subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Director of National Intelligence be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will Amy Klobuchar be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6990/Will-Amy-Klobuchar-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "1%"
"Percentage": "1%",
"Description": "This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Amy Klobuchar has been confirmed by the U.S. Senate to serve in a Cabinet position before the End Date listed below.\nFor the purpose of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be defined as the Attorney General; the Secretaries of Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury, and Veterans Affairs; United States Trade Representative; and the heads of the Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management and Budget, Central Intelligence Agency, Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and Small Business Administration.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will Elizabeth Warren be confirmed to a Cabinet position by Mar. 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6991/Will-Elizabeth-Warren-be-confirmed-to-a-Cabinet-position-by-Mar-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "1%"
"Percentage": "1%",
"Description": "This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Elizabeth Warren has been confirmed by the U.S. Senate to serve in a Cabinet position before the End Date listed below.\nFor the purpose of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be defined as the Attorney General; the Secretaries of Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury, and Veterans Affairs; United States Trade Representative; and the heads of the Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management and Budget, Central Intelligence Agency, Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and Small Business Administration.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed OMB Director on Mar. 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6992/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director-on-Mar-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Director of the Office of Management and Budget subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of Director of the Office of Management and Budget be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed U.S. Trade Representative on Mar. 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6993/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-US-Trade-Representative-on-Mar-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as United States Trade Representative subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of United States Trade Representative be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "32%"
"Percentage": "33%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, or by amending an existing Statement of Candidacy, designating a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election, or otherwise filing with the FEC a communication having the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for that election, before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Trump and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nThe filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Trump's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n"
},
{
"Title": "Which party will win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nFor purposes of this market, only one candidate can represent a party listed in a contract. A candidate running as an independent would not be considered to represent the Republican party or Democratic party, even if that candidate otherwise identifies as a member of one of those parties.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n"
},
{
"Title": "Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7003/Will-Andrew-Yang-run-in-the-2021-NYC-Democratic-Mayoral-primary",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "97%"
"Percentage": "96%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Yang is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2021 Democratic primary election for mayor of New York City. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Yang running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will Israel hold national elections for Knesset in 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7007/Will-Israel-hold-national-elections-for-Knesset-in-2021",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "99%"
"Percentage": "99%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Israel holds national elections for members of the Knesset during the 2021 calendar year.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "42%"
"Percentage": "41%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a female candidate wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez file to run for president before the end of 2023?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7014/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2023",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "22%"
"Percentage": "20%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate.\nAbsent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "25%"
"Percentage": "25%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Senator from New York. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n"
},
{
"Title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7016/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Pennsylvania-in-2022",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n"
},
{
"Title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The winner of the 2022 North Carolina general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will Donald Trump Jr. run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7018/Will-Donald-Trump-Jr-run-in-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Republican-Senate-primary",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "13%"
"Percentage": "12%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump Jr. is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Pennsylvania. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will Lara Trump run in the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate primary?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7019/Will-Lara-Trump-run-in-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-primary",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "37%"
"Percentage": "38%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Lara Lea Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from North Carolina. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n"
},
{
"Title": "Who will be the Senate-confirmed USAID Administrator on Mar. 16?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7020/Who-will-be-the-Senate-confirmed-USAID-Administrator-on-Mar-16",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 12/31/2020.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual who, as of the End Date listed below, serves as Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) subsequent to Senate-confirmation to that office. Upon the End Date, should the office of USAID Administrator be vacant or filled on an interim basis, all contracts shall resolve to No.\nContracts identifying additional individuals may be added to this market, as circumstances warrant, at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 12/31/2020 9:01 AM (ET)\nNote: A typographical error in the title was corrected to Mar. 16, the End Date set forth in the Rules\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will Ivanka Trump run in the 2022 Florida Republican Senate primary?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7021/Will-Ivanka-Trump-run-in-the-2022-Florida-Republican-Senate-primary",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "26%"
"Percentage": "26%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Ivanka Trump is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Republican primary election for Senator from Florida. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Trump running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n"
},
{
"Title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n"
},
{
"Title": "Who will win the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7030/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Democratic-gubernatorial-primary",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nShould no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "72%"
"Percentage": "71%",
"Description": "This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Benjamin Netanyahu is prime minister of Israel upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"). \nShould that Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 06/30/2021 4:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7036/How-many-seats-will-Israel's-Likud-Party-win-in-the-next-Knesset-election",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats in the Knesset won by the Likud Party in Israel's next legislative election.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "66%"
"Percentage": "67%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that proponents of the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom shall, by March 17, 2021, file recall petitions sufficient to trigger a recall election. Review of any such timely filed petitions for sufficiency to trigger such recall election need not be complete by March 17, 2021. Any extension of time that may be granted to recall efforts currently underway shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n"
},
{
"Title": "Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"). \nShould that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will the Senate convict Donald Trump in Biden's first 100 days?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7050/Will-the-Senate-convict-Donald-Trump-in-Biden's-first-100-days",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "7%"
"Percentage": "8%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, after noon (ET) January 20, 2021 but before the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall, by a vote of at least two-thirds of the Members present, convict Donald J. Trump on one or more articles of impeachment.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will Lisa Murkowski be a Republican on April 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7051/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-be-a-Republican-on-April-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "90%"
"Percentage": "91%",
"Description": "This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Senator Lisa Murkowski publicly identifies herself as a member of the Republican Party as of the End Date listed below. Senator Murkowski's continued participation or membership in the Senate Republican Conference as of the End Date shall not be sufficient by itself to cause this market to resolve to Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n"
},
{
"Title": "How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7054/How-many-Senators-will-vote-to-convict-Donald-Trump-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number of members of the U.S. Senate casting votes to convict Donald J. Trump on the charge of incitement of insurrection, before the End Date listed below.\nShould no such vote conclude before the End Date, or should such vote result in acquittal of Mr. Trump via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"50 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should such vote result in the conviction of Mr. Trump via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"67 or more\" shall resolve to Yes.\nThis market shall close upon the first such Senate vote. Any subsequent such Senate vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The Vice President, as President of the Senate, is not a Senator for purposes of this market.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, and cloture or other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will Mitch McConnell vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7055/Will-Mitch-McConnell-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "15%"
"Percentage": "19%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (\"Senate Vote\"), and Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.\nThis market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\nAny Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will Mitt Romney vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7056/Will-Mitt-Romney-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "92%"
"Percentage": "93%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (\"Senate Vote\"), and Senator Mitt Romney (R-UT) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.\nThis market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\nAny Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will Susan Collins vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7058/Will-Susan-Collins-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "64%"
"Percentage": "67%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (\"Senate Vote\"), and Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.\nThis market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\nAny Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will John Thune vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7059/Will-John-Thune-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "9%"
"Percentage": "12%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (\"Senate Vote\"), and Senator John Thune (R-SD) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.\nThis market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\nAny Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
},
{
"Title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Pete Buttigieg as Transportation Secretary?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7064/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Pete-Buttigieg-as-Transportation-Secretary",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of parliamentary seats won by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the Netherlands' next general election.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will Thom Tillis vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7066/Will-Thom-Tillis-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "9%"
"Percentage": "6%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (\"Senate Vote\"), and Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.\nThis market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\nAny Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will Joe Manchin vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7067/Will-Joe-Manchin-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "92%"
"Percentage": "92%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (\"Senate Vote\"), and Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.\nThis market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\nAny Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will Richard Burr vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7070/Will-Richard-Burr-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "9%"
"Percentage": "10%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (\"Senate Vote\"), and Senator Richard Burr (R-NC) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.\nThis market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\nAny Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will Rob Portman vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7071/Will-Rob-Portman-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "23%"
"Percentage": "28%",
"Description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 01/25/2021.\nThis market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (\"Senate Vote\"), and Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.\nThis market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\nAny Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 01/25/2021 1:45 PM (ET)\nNote: Senator Portman's state has been corrected to Ohio\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "12%"
"Percentage": "12%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) before the End Date listed below.\nA censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Gina Raimondo as Commerce Secretary?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7073/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Gina-Raimondo-as-Commerce-Secretary",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Gina Raimondo to the position of Secretary of Commerce, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Raimondo to the position of Secretary of Commerce commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Raimondo be confirmed to position of Secretary of Commerce in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"67 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"92 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Raimondo to the position of Secretary of Commerce be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will the Senate censure Josh Hawley before May 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7074/Will-the-Senate-censure-Josh-Hawley-before-May-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "16%"
"Percentage": "15%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) before the End Date listed below.\nA censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "10%"
},
{
"Title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Alejandro Mayorkas as Homeland Security Sec.?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7076/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Alejandro-Mayorkas-as-Homeland-Security-Sec",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "7%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $15 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will Lisa Murkowski vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7077/Will-Lisa-Murkowski-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "76%"
"Percentage": "81%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (\"Senate Vote\"), and Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.\nThis market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\nAny Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will Italy hold national elections before June 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7078/Will-Italy-hold-national-elections-before-June-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "21%"
"Percentage": "24%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that ltaly holds national legislative elections before the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will Ben Sasse vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7080/Will-Ben-Sasse-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "77%"
"Percentage": "79%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (\"Senate Vote\"), and Senator Ben Sasse (R-NE) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.\nThis market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\nAny Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Jennifer Granholm as Energy Secretary?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7081/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Jennifer-Granholm-as-Energy-Secretary",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Jennifer Granholm to the position of Secretary of Energy, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Granholm to the position of Secretary of Energy commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Granholm be confirmed to position of Secretary of Energy in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"67 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"92 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Granholm to the position of Secretary of Energy be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "80%"
"Percentage": "79%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins the 2022 Arkansas Republican gubernatorial primary election. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. \nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "11%"
"Percentage": "11%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the District of Columbia is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present District of Columbia from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will Pat Toomey vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7084/Will-Pat-Toomey-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "64%"
"Percentage": "67%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (\"Senate Vote\"), and Senator Pat Toomey (R-PA) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.\nThis market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\nAny Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Ohio in 2022?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7085/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Ohio-in-2022",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The winner of the 2022 Ohio general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n"
},
{
"Title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Marcia Fudge as HUD Secretary?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7086/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Marcia-Fudge-as-HUD-Secretary",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Rep. Marcia Fudge (D-OH) to the position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Rep. Fudge to the position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Rep. Fudge be confirmed to position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"61 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"86 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Rep. Fudge to the position of Secretary of Housing and Urban Development be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7088/Will-Puerto-Rico-become-a-US-state-in-2021",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "6%"
"Percentage": "7%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present commonwealth from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will Chuck Grassley vote to convict on incitement by Apr. 29?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7089/Will-Chuck-Grassley-vote-to-convict-on-incitement-by-Apr-29",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "6%"
"Percentage": "7%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, by the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall hold a vote on the conviction of Donald J. Trump in a Senate trial on the charge of incitement of insurrection (\"Senate Vote\"), and Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) votes to convict. Should no such Senate Vote conclude by the End Date, this market will resolve to No.\nThis market shall close upon the first such Senate Vote. Any subsequent Senate Vote shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\nAny Senate vote on potential conviction that does not result in the recording of votes shall not be considered sufficient for this market to resolve to Yes, regardless of the outcome of that vote. Any other type of vote (e.g., procedural votes, votes on whether to dismiss charges without trial, or votes on whether to call witnesses), shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 04/29/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "How many Senators vote to confirm L. Thomas-Greenfield as UN Ambassador by 3/15?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7090/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-L-Thomas-Greenfield-as-UN-Ambassador-by-3-15",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Linda Thomas-Greenfield to the position of Ambassador to the United Nations, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Thomas-Greenfield to the position of Ambassador to the United Nations commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Thomas-Greenfield be confirmed to position of Ambassador to the United Nations in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"58 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"83 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Thomas-Greenfield to the position of Ambassador to the United Nations be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "How many Biden Cabinet members will be confirmed by Mar. 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7091/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-be-confirmed-by-Mar-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of members of the U.S. Cabinet who have been confirmed by the Senate to their respective positions by the End Date listed below.\nFor purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions –\nThe Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs --\nAnd the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative --\nAnd the heads of the: Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Management and Budget, Council of Economic Advisers, Office of Science and Technology Policy and Small Business Administration.\nAny confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by September 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7092/Will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-$950-per-hour-or-higher-by-September-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "39%"
"Percentage": "40%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. \nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 09/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Tom Vilsack as Agriculture Sec. by 3/31?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7093/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Tom-Vilsack-as-Agriculture-Sec-by-3-31",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none"
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Tom Vilsack to the position of Secretary of Agriculture, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Vilsack to the position of Secretary of Agriculture commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Vilsack be confirmed to position of Secretary of Agriculture in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"70 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"95 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Vilsack to the position of Secretary of Agriculture be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will the Senate subpoena any witnesses in trial of President Trump by Feb. 28?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7094/Will-the-Senate-subpoena-any-witnesses-in-trial-of-President-Trump-by-Feb-28",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "24%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes if, in the trial of Donald J. Trump, the Senate shall vote, by the End Date listed below, to approve, issue, authorize or enforce a subpoena of any specific witness or witnesses. A vote to hear testimony from a witness who appears voluntarily without being subpoenaed will not cause this market to resolve Yes.\nA vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences during the prescribed period of time, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after expiration. The results of the vote need not be available upon expiration.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 02/28/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will Liz Cheney be House Republican Conference Chair on March 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7095/Will-Liz-Cheney-be-House-Republican-Conference-Chair-on-March-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "75%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) serves in the position of House Republican Conference Chair upon the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "Will Marjorie Taylor Greene sit on the House Education Committee on March 1?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7096/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-sit-on-the-House-Education-Committee-on-March-1",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "18%",
"Description": "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is a member of, or is assigned to, the House Committee on Education and Labor upon the End Date listed below.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET)\n"
},
{
"Title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Denis McDonough as VA Secretary by 3/31?",
"URL": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7097/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Denis-McDonough-as-VA-Secretary-by-3-31",
"Platform": "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
"Description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Denis McDonough to the position of Secretary of Veterans Affairs, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. McDonough to the position of Secretary of Veterans Affairs commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. McDonough be confirmed to position of Secretary of Veterans Affairs in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"70 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"95 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. McDonough to the position of Secretary of Veterans Affairs be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n"
}
]

4
data/template-questions.csv
View File

@ -1,2 +1,2 @@
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","# Forecasts"
"Some title","someurl.com","some platform",true,"X%/none",15
"Title","URL","Platform","Binary question?","Percentage","Description","# Forecasts"
"Some title","someurl.com","some platform",true,"X%/none","Some long description which may contain html",15
1 Title URL Platform Binary question? Percentage Description # Forecasts
2 Some title someurl.com some platform true X%/none Some long description which may contain html 15

1
data/template-questions.json
View File

@ -4,6 +4,7 @@
"Platform": "some platform",
"Binary question?": true,
"Percentage": "X%/none",
"Description": "Some long description which may contain html",
"# Forecasts": 15
}
]

BIN
metaforecasts.png
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Side by Side Swipe Overlay

Before

Width:  |  Height:  |  Size: 97 KiB

After

Width:  |  Height:  |  Size: 197 KiB

7
node_modules/.package-lock.json generated vendored
View File

@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
{
"name": "metaforecasts",
"version": "0.2.0",
"version": "0.3.0",
"lockfileVersion": 2,
"requires": true,
"packages": {
@ -118,6 +118,11 @@
"version": "5.3.0",
"resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/papaparse/-/papaparse-5.3.0.tgz",
"integrity": "sha512-Lb7jN/4bTpiuGPrYy4tkKoUS8sTki8zacB5ke1p5zolhcSE4TlWgrlsxjrDTbG/dFVh07ck7X36hUf/b5V68pg=="
},
"node_modules/textversionjs": {
"version": "1.1.3",
"resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/textversionjs/-/textversionjs-1.1.3.tgz",
"integrity": "sha1-G3AK73gEZ3hoguKKsSb3fKMmoeg="
}
}
}

19
package-lock.json generated
View File

@ -1,19 +1,20 @@
{
"name": "metaforecasts",
"version": "0.2.0",
"version": "0.3.0",
"lockfileVersion": 2,
"requires": true,
"packages": {
"": {
"name": "metaforecasts",
"version": "0.2.0",
"license": "UNLICENSED",
"version": "0.3.0",
"license": "MIT",
"dependencies": {
"axios": "^0.21.1",
"fs": "^0.0.1-security",
"json2csv": "^5.0.5",
"open": "^7.3.1",
"papaparse": "^5.3.0"
"papaparse": "^5.3.0",
"textversionjs": "^1.1.3"
}
},
"node_modules/axios": {
@ -130,6 +131,11 @@
"version": "5.3.0",
"resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/papaparse/-/papaparse-5.3.0.tgz",
"integrity": "sha512-Lb7jN/4bTpiuGPrYy4tkKoUS8sTki8zacB5ke1p5zolhcSE4TlWgrlsxjrDTbG/dFVh07ck7X36hUf/b5V68pg=="
},
"node_modules/textversionjs": {
"version": "1.1.3",
"resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/textversionjs/-/textversionjs-1.1.3.tgz",
"integrity": "sha1-G3AK73gEZ3hoguKKsSb3fKMmoeg="
}
},
"dependencies": {
@ -202,6 +208,11 @@
"version": "5.3.0",
"resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/papaparse/-/papaparse-5.3.0.tgz",
"integrity": "sha512-Lb7jN/4bTpiuGPrYy4tkKoUS8sTki8zacB5ke1p5zolhcSE4TlWgrlsxjrDTbG/dFVh07ck7X36hUf/b5V68pg=="
},
"textversionjs": {
"version": "1.1.3",
"resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/textversionjs/-/textversionjs-1.1.3.tgz",
"integrity": "sha1-G3AK73gEZ3hoguKKsSb3fKMmoeg="
}
}
}

3
package.json
View File

@ -27,6 +27,7 @@
"fs": "^0.0.1-security",
"json2csv": "^5.0.5",
"open": "^7.3.1",
"papaparse": "^5.3.0"
"papaparse": "^5.3.0",
"textversionjs": "^1.1.3"
}
}

15
src/csetforetell-fetch.js
View File

@ -1,6 +1,7 @@
/* Imports */
import fs from 'fs'
import axios from "axios"
import textVersion from "textversionjs"
/* Definitions */
let htmlEndPoint = 'https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions?page='
@ -62,6 +63,17 @@ async function fetchStats(questionUrl, cookie){
percentage = crowdpercentage
}
// Description
let descriptionraw = response.split(` <meta name="description" content="`)[1]
let descriptionprocessed1 = descriptionraw.split(`">`)[0]
let descriptionprocessed2 = descriptionprocessed1.replace(">", "")
let descriptionprocessed3 = descriptionprocessed2.replace("To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.", ``)
let descriptionprocessed4=descriptionprocessed3.replaceAll("\r\n\r\n", "\n")
let descriptionprocessed5=descriptionprocessed4.replaceAll("\n\n", "\n")
let descriptionprocessed6=descriptionprocessed5.replaceAll("&quot;", `"`)
let descriptionprocessed7=descriptionprocessed6.replaceAll("&#39;", "'")
let descriptionprocessed8=textVersion(descriptionprocessed7)
let description = descriptionprocessed8
// Number of forecasts
let numforecasts = response.split("prediction_sets_count&quot;:")[1].split(",")[0]
//console.log(numforecasts)
@ -74,7 +86,8 @@ async function fetchStats(questionUrl, cookie){
"Binary question?": isbinary,
"Percentage": percentage,
"# Forecasts": numforecasts,
"# Forecasters": numforecasters
"# Forecasters": numforecasters,
"Description": description
}
return result

46
src/goodjudgment-fetch.js
View File

@ -1,6 +1,7 @@
/* Imports */
import axios from "axios"
import fs from "fs"
import textVersion from "textversionjs"
/* Definitions */
let endpoints = ["https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/", "https://goodjudgment.io/economist/"]
@ -14,25 +15,42 @@ export async function goodjudgment(){
for(let endpoint of endpoints){
let content = await axios.get(endpoint)
.then(query => query.data)
let questions = content.split(`<td align="center">&nbsp;Today's<br/>Forecast&nbsp`)
let questions = content.split(`<table width="80%" class="qTable" align="center">`)
// content.split(`<td align="center">&nbsp;Today's<br/>Forecast&nbsp`)
questions.pop()
questions.shift()
for(let question of questions){
let lastlineposition= question.lastIndexOf("value=")
let lastline = question.substring(lastlineposition+1, question.length)
if(!lastline.includes("Close Superforecaster Analysis") && !lastline.includes("</table")){
let lastlineremovetabs = lastline.replace(" ", "")
let lastlineremovetags1 = lastlineremovetabs.split(">\n")[1]
let lastlineremovetags2 = lastlineremovetags1.replace("</td", "")
let lastlinereplacequotations = lastlineremovetags2.replaceAll("&quot;","'")
console.log(lastlinereplacequotations)
let standardObj = ({
"Title": lastlinereplacequotations,
// Title
let titleraw = question.split(`<input type="hidden" id="num`)[1]
let titleprocessed1 = titleraw.split(">")[1]
let titleprocessed2 = titleprocessed1.split("</td>")[0]
let titleprocessed3 = titleprocessed2.replace("</td","")
let titleprocessed4 = titleprocessed3.replaceAll(" ", "")
let titleprocessed5 = titleprocessed4.replaceAll("\n", "")
let title = titleprocessed5
console.log(title)
// Get the description
let descriptionraw = question.split("BACKGROUND:")[1]
//let descriptionprocessed1 = descriptionraw.replace(" Examples of Superforecaster commentary in italics", "")
let descriptionprocessed1 = descriptionraw.split("SUPERFORECASTER COMMENTARY HIGHLIGHTS")[0]
let descriptionprocessed2 = textVersion(descriptionprocessed1)
let descriptionprocessed3 = descriptionprocessed2.split("\n").filter(string => !string.includes("Examples of Superforecaster"))
let descriptionprocessed4 = descriptionprocessed3.join("\n")
let descriptionprocessed5 = descriptionprocessed4.replace("AT A GLANCE:\n", "")
let description=descriptionprocessed5
console.log(description)
let standardObj = ({
"Title": title,
"URL": endpoint,
"Platform": "Good Judgment",
"Binary question?": false,
"Percentage": "none",
})
results.push(standardObj)
}
"Description": description
})
results.push(standardObj)
}
}
let string = JSON.stringify(results,null, 2)

11
src/goodjudmentopen-fetch.js
View File

@ -1,6 +1,7 @@
/* Imports */
import fs from 'fs'
import axios from "axios"
import textVersion from "textversionjs"
/* Definitions */
let htmlEndPoint = 'https://www.gjopen.com/questions?page='
@ -62,6 +63,15 @@ async function fetchStats(questionUrl, cookie){
percentage = crowdpercentage
}
// Description
let descriptionraw = response.split(`<div id="question-background" class="collapse smb">`)[1]
let descriptionprocessed1 = descriptionraw.split(`</div>`)[0]
let descriptionprocessed2= textVersion(descriptionprocessed1)
let descriptionprocessed3 = descriptionprocessed2.split("\n")
.filter(string => !string.includes("Confused? Check our"))
.join("\n")
let description = descriptionprocessed3
// Number of forecasts
let numforecasts = response.split("prediction_sets_count&quot;:")[1].split(",")[0]
//console.log(numforecasts)
@ -73,6 +83,7 @@ async function fetchStats(questionUrl, cookie){
let result = {
"Binary question?": isbinary,
"Percentage": percentage,
"Description": description,
"# Forecasts": numforecasts,
"# Forecasters": numforecasters
}

64
src/hypermind-fetch.js
View File

@ -1,6 +1,7 @@
/* Imports */
import fs from 'fs'
import axios from "axios"
import textVersion from "textversionjs"
/* Definitions */
let hypermindEnpoint1 = 'https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/jsx.json'
@ -91,37 +92,68 @@ export async function hypermind(){
console.log(slug)
await sleep(1000 + Math.random()*1000)
let result = await fetchHypermindData1(slug)
let objs = result.map(res => ({
Title: res.props.title.split("%%fr")[0].replace("%%en:", ""),
URL: "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list="+slug,
Platform: "Hypermind",
"Binary question?" : (res.otcms.length==2),
"Percentage": (res.otcms.length==2) ? Number(res.otcms[0].price).toFixed(2) +"%" : "none"
}))
//console.log(result)
let objs = result.map(res => {
let descriptionraw = res.props.details
let descriptionprocessed1 = descriptionraw.split("%%fr")[0]
let descriptionprocessed2 = descriptionprocessed1.replaceAll("<BR>", "\n")
let descriptionprocessed3 = descriptionprocessed2.replace("%%en:", "")
let descriptionprocessed4 = descriptionprocessed3.replace(`Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100<sup>ℍ</sup>, while the others will be worthless (0<sup>ℍ</sup>).<p>`, "")
let descriptionprocessed5 = textVersion(descriptionprocessed4)
let description = descriptionprocessed5
return ({
Title: res.props.title.split("%%fr")[0].replace("%%en:", ""),
URL: "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list="+slug,
Platform: "Hypermind",
"Binary question?" : (res.otcms.length==2),
"Percentage": (res.otcms.length==2) ? Number(res.otcms[0].price).toFixed(2) +"%" : "none",
"Description": description
})
})
results1.push(...objs)
}
console.log("GDP")
await sleep(1000 + Math.random()*1000)
let results2 = await fetchHypermindData2()
let results2processed = results2.map(res => ({
let results2processed = results2.map(res => {
//console.log(res.props.details)
let descriptionraw = res.props.details.split("<hr size=1>")[0]
let descriptionprocessed1 = textVersion(descriptionraw)
let descriptionprocessed2 = descriptionprocessed1.split("![image]")[0]
let description = descriptionprocessed2
//console.log(description)
return({
Title: res.props.title,
URL: "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html",
Platform: "Hypermind",
Description: description,
"Binary question?" : false,
"Percentage": "none"
}))
})
})
console.log("COVID-19 OpenPhil")
await sleep(1000 + Math.random()*1000)
let results3 = await fetchHypermindData3()
let results3processed = results3.map(res => ({
Title: res.props.title,
URL: "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19",
Platform: "Hypermind",
"Binary question?" : false,
"Percentage": "none"
}))
// console.log(results3)
let results3processed = results3.map(res => {
let descriptionraw = res.props.details.split("<hr size=1>")[0]
let descriptionprocessed1 = textVersion(descriptionraw)
let descriptionprocessed2 = descriptionprocessed1.split("![image]")[0]
let description = descriptionprocessed2
return({
Title: res.props.title,
URL: "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19",
Platform: "Hypermind",
"Description": description,
"Binary question?" : false,
"Percentage": "none"
})
})
let resultsTotal=[...results1, ...results2processed, ...results3processed]

2
src/index.js
View File

@ -97,8 +97,8 @@ let executeoption = async (option) => {
coverttocsvandmerge()
break;
case 11:
await elicit()
await csetforetell()
await elicit()
await goodjudgment()
await goodjudgmentopen()
await hypermind()

22
src/metaculus-fetch.js
View File

@ -1,6 +1,7 @@
/* Imports */
import axios from "axios"
import fs from 'fs'
import textVersion from "textversionjs"
/* Definitions */
let jsonEndPoint = 'https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?page='
@ -19,6 +20,15 @@ async function fetchMetaculusQuestions(page=1){
//console.log(response)
return response
}
async function fetchMetaculusQuestionDescription(slug){
let response = await axios({
method: 'get',
url: "https://www.metaculus.com" + slug
}).then(response => response.data)
return response
}
function sleep(ms) {
return new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, ms));
}
@ -31,7 +41,7 @@ export async function metaculus(){
let metaculusQuestionsInit = await fetchMetaculusQuestions(1)
let numQueries = Math.round(Number(metaculusQuestionsInit.count)/20)
console.log(`Downloading... This might take a while. Total number of queries: ${numQueries}`)
for(let i = 1; i <= numQueries; i++){ // change numQueries to 10 if one want to just test
for(let i = 4; i <= numQueries; i++){ // change numQueries to 10 if one want to just test
if (i%20 == 0){
console.log("Sleeping for 5secs")
await sleep(5000)
@ -44,6 +54,12 @@ export async function metaculus(){
(result.publish_time < now) &&
(now < result.close_time)
){
//console.log(result)
let questionPage = await fetchMetaculusQuestionDescription(result.page_url)
let descriptionraw = questionPage.split(`<div class="question__content">`)[1]
let descriptionprocessed1 = descriptionraw.split("</div>")[0]
let descriptionprocessed2 = textVersion(descriptionprocessed1)
let description = descriptionprocessed2
let isbinary = result.possibilities.type == "binary"
let interestingInfo = ({
"Title": result.title,
@ -51,16 +67,16 @@ export async function metaculus(){
"Platform": "Metaculus",
"Binary question?": isbinary,
"Percentage": isbinary?(Number(result.community_prediction.full.q2)*100+"%"):"none",
"Description": description,
"# Forecasts": result.number_of_predictions
//"status": result.status,
//"publish_time": result.publish_time,
//"close_time": result.close_time,
//"type": result.possibilities.type, // We want binary ones here.
//"last_activity_time": result.last_activity_time,
})
if(Number(result.number_of_predictions) >= 10){
console.log(interestingInfo)
all_questions.push(interestingInfo)
}

1
src/omen-fetch.js
View File

@ -63,6 +63,7 @@ async function fetch_all(){
"Binary question?" : isbinary,
marginalPrices: data.outcomeTokenMarginalPrices,
"Percentage": isbinary?(percentage.toFixed(4) + "%"):"none",
"Description": ""
}
console.log(obj)
results.push(obj)

8
src/polymarket-fetch.js
View File

@ -71,7 +71,8 @@ async function fetch_all(){
combinedObj[addressLowerCase] = {
title: info.question,
url: "https://polymarket.com/market/" + info.slug,
address: address
address: address,
description: info.description
}
}
for(let data of allData){
@ -89,8 +90,9 @@ async function fetch_all(){
URL: obj.url,
Platform: "PolyMarket",
"Binary question?" : isbinary,
"Percentage": isbinary?(percentage.toFixed(4) + "%"):"none",
"# Forecasts": Number(data.tradesQuantity).toFixed(2)
"Percentage": isbinary?(percentage.toFixed(2) + "%"):"none",
"Description": obj.description,
"# Forecasts": Number(data.tradesQuantity).toFixed(0)
/*liquidity: liquidity.toFixed(2),
tradevolume: tradevolume.toFixed(2),
address: obj.address*/

37
src/predictit-fetch.js
View File

@ -1,6 +1,7 @@
/* Imports */
import fs from 'fs'
import axios from "axios"
import textVersion from "textversionjs"
/* Support functions */
async function fetchmarkets(){
@ -12,23 +13,43 @@ async function fetchmarkets(){
return response.data.markets
}
async function fetchmarketrules(market_id){
let response = await axios({
method: 'get',
url: 'https://www.predictit.org/api/Market/'+market_id
})
return response.data.rule
}
function sleep(ms) {
return new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, ms));
}
/* Body */
export async function predictit(){
let response = await fetchmarkets()
//console.log(response)
let result = response.map(x=> {
let isbinary = x.contracts.length == 1
let output = ({
Title: x["name"],
URL: x.url,
let result=[]
for(let market of response){
let isbinary = market.contracts.length == 1;
await sleep(3000*(1+Math.random()))
let descriptionraw = await fetchmarketrules(market.id)
let descriptionprocessed1 = textVersion(descriptionraw)
let description= descriptionprocessed1
let obj = ({
Title: market["name"],
URL: market.url,
Platform: "PredictIt",
"Binary question?": isbinary,
"Percentage": isbinary? Number(Number(x.contracts[0].lastTradePrice)*100).toFixed(0)+"%" : "none"
"Percentage": isbinary? Number(Number(market.contracts[0].lastTradePrice)*100).toFixed(0)+"%" : "none",
"Description": description
//"qualityindicators": {}
})
return output
})
console.log(obj)
result.push(obj)
}
//console.log(result)
let string = JSON.stringify(result,null, 2)
fs.writeFileSync('./data/predictit-questions.json', string);