23 KiB
23 KiB
| 1 | Title | URL | Platform | Binary question? | Percentage | Description | # Forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Will Tesla announce a Bitcoin purchase before March 1, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-tesla-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-march-1-2021 | PolyMarket | true | 12.22% | This is a market on if Tesla ($TSLA) will announce either their intention to purchase Bitcoin ($BTC) off their balance sheet, the completion of such a purchase, or in any other way, ownership of BTC on their balance sheet. This announcement may come from either Tesla's official channels, or Elon Musk's official channels. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla satisfies any of the aforementioned resolution conditions before the resolution date, March 1, 2021, 12:00am EST. If, for any reason the aforementioned market conditions are not met by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). | 1333 |
| 3 | Will Donald Trump's Twitter account be active on March 1, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-s-twitter-account-be-active-on-march-1-2021 | PolyMarket | true | 4.89% | This is a market on if Donald Trump's Twitter account will be reinstated and active on the resolution date, 12:00am EST on March 1, 2021. The resolution source will be the link to President Trump’s personal Twitter account, https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump. If the account is accessible and no longer blocked by a message stating something to the effect of “account suspended” upon the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If, upon the resolution date, https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump says "account suspended" or something similar, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). | 269 |
| 4 | Who will the world's richest person be on February 27, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/who-will-the-world-s-richest-person-be-on-february-27-2021 | PolyMarket | false | none | This is a market on who will be the world's richest person on February 27, 2021, 12PM EST, according to Forbes' billionaires list. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, current CEO of Amazon, Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla, and “Other“, representing anyone else being the top of the Forbes list. This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has the world's highest net worth in terms of USD on the resolution date. The market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he is the world's highest net worth individual in terms of USD on the resolution date. If for any reason, any individual other than Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk is listed as the highest net worth individual in the world on the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Other”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be [forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/](http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/). | 774 |
| 5 | Will ETH be above $1500 on February 3rd, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-1500-on-february-3rd-2021 | PolyMarket | true | 66.80% | This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $1,500 on February 3rd, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $1,500 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). | 2797 |
| 6 | How many Senators will vote to convict Donald Trump on incitement by March 1? | https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-senators-will-vote-to-convict-donald-trump-on-incitement-by-march-1 | PolyMarket | false | none | This is a market on the number of U.S. Senators who will vote to convict Donald J. Trump on the charge of incitement of insurrection prior to March 1, 2021. If no such vote takes place prior to the resolution date, or if Trump is acquitted via voice vote or another procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, “52 or fewer" will resolve to “Yes". Should such a vote result in the conviction of Trump via voice vote or other procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, “62 or more" will resolve to “Yes". The Vice President, as President of the Senate, is not a Senator for purposes of this market. The outcome corresponding to the number of U.S. Senators who vote to convict Trump on the charge of incitement will resolve to “Yes". The resolution source for this market will be the guilty vote count on the corresponding legislative page of https://www.senate.gov/legislative. Clarifying note: This market will resolve upon the first such Senate vote. | 1008 |
| 7 | Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be above 10% on March 15, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-de-fi-dominance-on-coin-gecko-be-above-10-on-march-15-2021 | PolyMarket | true | 10.62% | This is a market on if the DeFi Dominance metric, according to CoinGecko, will be above 10% on March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if DeFi Dominance is listed as being greater than or equal 10.0% on the resolution date. The market will resolve to “No“ if DeFi dominance is less than 10.0% at that time of resolution. The resolution source for this market will be the metric currently listed on [https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi](https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi) as “Defi Dominance (vs. Global)“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution date for this market will be March 15, 2021. | 116 |
| 8 | Will YFI total supply be greater than 30,000 by March 15th? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-yfi-total-supply-be-greater-than-30-000-by-march-15th | PolyMarket | true | 90.01% | This is a market on if the total supply of $YFI, the native token of yearn.finance, will be greater than 30,000 by March 15th, 2021, 4pm EST. Currently there is much debate around adding inflation to the current fixed supply of 30,000 YFI tokens, as a means of creating further incentive for team members and core devs to be committed to the project. If this happens, and the total supply of YFI exceeds 30,000 before the resolution date, the market will resolve to "Yes". If the total supply of YFI remains 30,000 on the resolution date, even if a governance proposal set to change that has been approved, the market will resolve to "No". If the token gets redeployed and a migration happens, where there is social consensus on a new YFI token that governs yearn.finance, that will be treated as YFI. The main resolution sources will be Coingecko (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/yearn-finance) and the current ERC20 contract (https://etherscan.io/token/0x0bc529c00c6401aef6d220be8c6ea1667f6ad93e). | 181 |
| 9 | Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in The US by April 1, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021 | PolyMarket | true | 61.91% | This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to "Yes" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to "No" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations | 1137 |
| 10 | Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on March 1, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-1-2021 | PolyMarket | true | 95.79% | This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on March 1, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, [https://www.whitehouse.gov/](https://www.whitehouse.gov/) | 3521 |
| 11 | Will $BTC break $50k before April 1st, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-btc-break-50k-before-april-1st-2021 | PolyMarket | true | 38.77% | This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $50,000 at any point before April 1st, 2021, 12:00am EST, according to Coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin. This market starts on January 4, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes“ whenever BTC breaks $50,000 according to Coinmarketcap, and if that condition is not met by April 1st, 2021, it will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). | 1543 |
| 12 | Will Bitcoin or Tesla have a higher market cap on March 1, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-or-tesla-have-a-higher-market-cap-on-march-1-2021 | PolyMarket | true | 33.44% | This is a market on if Bitcoin ($BTC) or Tesla ($TSLA) will have the higher market capitalization on the resolution date, March 1, 2021, 4pm EST. If Bitcoin’s market capitalization (according to Coinmarketcap, based on circulating supply) is higher than Tesla’s at that time, this market will resolve to “Bitcoin”, and vice versa. The resolution sources for this market will be the official website of the NASDAQ, https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla, for Tesla’s market capitalization, and https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ for Bitcoin’s market capitalization. | 343 |
| 13 | Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match | PolyMarket | true | 91.62% | This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for "Yes" and .10 for "No", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). | 486 |
| 14 | Will there be enough signatures for a vote on the recall of Gov. Newsom by March 17? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-gov-newsom-by-march-17 | PolyMarket | true | 63.94% | This is a market on if there will be enough petition signatures for a vote on the recall of California Governor Gavin Newson prior to March 17, 2021. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a recall election is triggered and "No" otherwise. The linked PredictIt question will be referenced as the leading resolution source, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom. This market will resolve when the PredictIt market is resolved, to the same outcome. | 155 |
| 15 | Will the Senate convict Donald Trump on impeachment by April 29, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-senate-convict-donald-trump-on-impeachment-before-june-1-2021 | PolyMarket | true | 7.24% | This is a market on whether Donald Trump will be convicted of one or more articles of impeachment prior to April 29, 2021, 11:59pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the U.S. Senate, by a vote of at least two-thirds of the Members present, convicts President Trump on one or more articles of impeachment. This market will resolve to “No“ if the U.S. Senate does not convict President Trump of any articles of impeachment by a vote of at least two-thirds of the Members present prior to the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the equivalent PredictIt market, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7050/Will-the-Senate-convict-Donald-Trump-in-Biden's-first-100-days. | 653 |
| 16 | Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021 | PolyMarket | true | 5.80% | This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). | 1547 |
| 17 | Superbowl 55: Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers | https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-kansas-city-chiefs-win-superbowl-55 | PolyMarket | true | 61.48% | This is a market on whether the Kansas City Chiefs will win the NFL Super Bowl 55. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to https://www.nfl.com/, the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 55. If they are eliminated from the NFL playoffs beforehand, or they lose the Super Bowl game, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of any postponement of the Super Bowl, this market will not be resolved until the game is played, unless the Kansas City Chiefs are not competing in this match. Note: in the event the Chiefs make the Superbowl, this market may be rephrased to "Chiefs vs Team 2", as opposed to Chiefs winning the Superbowl. Ultimately, it will have the exact some resolution and meaning, but may be easier to interpret. Note 2 (1-25-21): Chiefs made the Superbowl and market outcomes have been changed from "Yes | No" to "Chiefs | Bucs". | 672 |
| 18 | How many subscribers will /r/wallstreetbets have on February 7, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-subscribers-will-rwallstreetbets-have-on-february-7-2021 | PolyMarket | false | none | This is a market on the number of subscribers the r/wallstreetbets subreddit will have by the resolution date, February 7, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The options for this market are less than 6.5 million, 6.5-7.5 million, 7.5-8.5 million, 8.5-9.5 million, 9.5-10.5 million, and greater than 10.5 million. The market will resolve to whichever option corresponds to the resolution source's count of r/wallstreetbets' current subscribers. If r/wallstreetbets is inaccessible because of a ban or suspension at the time of market resolution, this market will resolve to "less than 6.5 million". If Reddit as a whole is offline at the time of market resolution, market resolution will be delayed until the earliest time at which the site is accessible. The resolution source for this market will be the "reader" count listed on https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). | 2934 |
| 19 | $2000 stimulus checks by February 28, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/2000-stimulus-checks-by-february-28-2021 | PolyMarket | true | 20.59% | This market concerns whether or not legislation will be signed into law by February 28, 2021, 11:59pm EST which includes direct government stimulus payments to US citizens of $2000. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date according to the official Congress website, regardless of if the stimulus checks have been paid out yet. This market will resolve to “No” if no such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be congress.gov/bill, the official website of Congress. Clarifying Note: In the event of an amendment that effectively increases stimulus payments from $600 to $2000, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of an additional payment of $1400 to supplement existing $600 payments, this market will resolve to "Yes". In the event of a $2000 payment to supplement the existing $600 payment, this market will resolve to "Yes". | 1146 |
| 20 | Will LINK be above $30 on February 10th? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-link-be-above-30-on-february-10th-1 | PolyMarket | true | 16.43% | This is a market on if the USD price of Chainlink $LINK will be above $30 on February 10th, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/chainlink/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if LINK is trading above $30 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). | 84 |
| 21 | Will the Warriors or the Celtics win their February 2nd matchup? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-warriors-or-the-celtics-win-their-february-2nd-matchup | PolyMarket | true | 0.03% | This is a market on which team will win the February 2nd, 2021 matchup between the Golden State Warriors and the Boston Celtics. In the event this game is delayed for whatever reason, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the game takes place. In the extraordinarily unlikely event the game is canceled altogether, the market will resolve to 50/50. In the event of overtime, this market will resolve to the eventual winner. Results of this market will be decided by official scores available on https://www.nba.com/. | 525 |
| 22 | Will Coinbase delist Ripple (XRP) before they begin publicly trading? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-coinbase-delist-ripple-xrp-before-they-begin-publicly-trading | PolyMarket | true | 97.62% | This is a market on if Coinbase will delist Ripple’s token, XRP, prior to the day they begin publicly trading. This market will resolve to “yes” if, before Coinbase stock begins trading, XRP has been delisted from Coinbase for US Users - meaning it can no longer be traded on either Coinbase or Coinbase Pro, for all Americans. This market will resolve to “no” if, for any reason, XRP is still available for trading to US Coinbase users on the day Coinbase begins publicly trading. The primary resolution source for this market will be Coinbase’s official webpage, which lists supported cryptocurrencies, https://help.coinbase.com/en/coinbase/getting-started/general-crypto-education/supported-cryptocurrencies, and specifically pertains to the US category. Even if XRP is available for trading via Coinbase in a jurisdiction other than the United States, or mentioned on the website or app, if it is not available for trading in the US, this market will resolve to “yes”. The resolution date for this market will be 10:00am EST on the day Coinbase becomes publicly traded. If Coinbase stock does not begin publicly trading by September 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “no”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). | 544 |
| 23 | Will Kim Kardashian or Kanye West file for divorce before March 1, 2021? | https://polymarket.com/market/will-kim-kardashian-or-kanye-west-file-for-divorce-before-march-1-2021 | PolyMarket | true | 22.09% | This is a market on whether Kanye West or Kim Kardashian will officially file for a divorce before March 1st 2021. Filing for divorce, in the context of this market, can be defined empirically as either an official announcement directly from either Kim or Kanye that they're getting divorced, or an official filing of divorce, including but not limited to certified copies of divorce decrees available from the Superior Court in the county where the decree was granted. This market will resolve "Yes" if the aforementioned conditions are met and "No" otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). | 173 |
| 24 | Donald Trump federally charged by February 20th? | https://polymarket.com/market/donald-trump-federally-charged-by-february-20th | PolyMarket | true | 3.84% | This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed on or before February 20, 2021 by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before February 20, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). | 301 |