metaforecast/data/goodjudgment-questions.csv

1	Title	URL	Platform	Binary question?	Percentage	Description	# Forecasts
2	When will Joe Biden cease to be president of the United States?	https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/	Good Judgment	false	none	Opened 22 January 2021 The next inauguration for president of the United States is scheduled for [20 January] (https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/amendments-11-27#xx) 2025. A transfer of presidential powers and duties to an acting president under Section 3 or Section 4 of the [25th Amendment] (https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/amendments-11-27#xxv) for more than 30 consecutive calendar days would count. When he took the oath of office, Joe Biden became the oldest newly inaugurated US president in history and also the oldest sitting president ever. Does this imply increased odds he will cease to be president before the end of his term? Good Judgment's Superforecasters assign 7% probability to this outcome. Actuarial tables suggest a US male at age 78 will live another nine years on average. President Biden has no known underlying health conditions. He also has arguably the best health care in the world, and his father died at 87. But, as one Superforecaster pointed out, much can happen in four years. Ceasing on 20 January 2025, when Biden's first term expires, currently has the highest probability (49%). Stepping down or losing a re-election bid could be potential reasons. As to the latter, the base rate, since 1860, for incumbent presidents winning re-election is about 70%. However, Biden would be 82 years old in 2025 and that might affect both his chances and his decision to run. Superforecasters also collectively assign 44% probability that Biden will not cease to be president of the United States before 21 January 2025.
3	Before 1 January 2023, will legislation raising the top marginal tax rate for long-term capital gains in the U.S. to higher than 20% become law?	https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/	Good Judgment	false	none	Opened 20 November 2020 President-elect Joe Biden has signaled his intention to [change] (https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-joe-bidens-tax-increase-wish-list-could-affect-you-11605263403) current [tax] (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-biden-capital-gains-tax/fact-check-biden-willonlytax-capital-gainsat-40for-those-earning-over-1-million-annually-idUSKBN26Z2CA) rates, however his ability to do so may turn on [control] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/14/us/politics/georgia-runoffs-senate-control.html) of the [Senate] (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/06/2020-georgia-runoff-election-senate-loeffler-ossoff/6192322002/) . As of 20 November 2020, the top tax rate for long-term capital gains is [20%] (https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/101515/comparing-longterm-vs-shortterm-capital-gain-tax-rates.asp) . [Exceptions] (https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc409) where certain capital gains are taxed at rates greater than the top tax rate would not count. The date the raise would take effect would be immaterial. If relevant legislation does not become law, the question will close No on the appropriate party control bin as of the closing date. 20 January 2021 - Good Judgment's professional Superforecasters consider, as the outside view, historical levels of the top marginal tax rate in the US and the measure's potential political divisiveness. The inside view includes the size of the initial Covid stimulus plan, and the second bill expected in February, as well as the role of Senators Bernie Sanders and Ron Wyden in President Biden's tax and spending agenda.
4	Before 1 January 2023, will legislation raising the top corporate tax rate in the U.S. to higher than 21% become law?	https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/	Good Judgment	false	none	Opened 20 November 2020 President-elect Joe Biden has signaled his [intention] (https://www.investopedia.com/explaining-biden-s-tax-plan-5080766) to change current tax rates, however his ability to do so may turn on [control] (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/11/06/2020-georgia-runoff-election-senate-loeffler-ossoff/6192322002/) of the [Senate] (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/14/us/politics/georgia-runoffs-senate-control.html) . As of 20 November 2020, the top corporate tax rate is [21%] (https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/corporate-top-tax-rate-and-bracket) . The date the raise would take effect would be immaterial. A surtax on specific subsets of corporations (e.g., "Big Tech" firms) would not count. If relevant legislation does not become law, the question will close No on the appropriate party control bin as of the closing date. 19 January 2021 - Professional Superforecasters see an increased probability (63% on aggregate) that Democrat-controlled Senate may increase top corporate tax rate to higher than 21%. Several Superforecasters point out corporate tax rates are currently at a historic low. On the other hand, this tax represents only a small portion of federal revenue and the higher rate may encourage more offshoring by large corporations.
5	Before 1 January 2023, will legislation creating a "public option" health insurance plan administered by the federal government become law?	https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/	Good Judgment	false	none	Opened 20 November 2020 President-elect Joe Biden pledged to create a " [public] (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/11/09/932071991/what-bidens-election-means-for-u-s-health-care-and-public-health) [option] (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/07/joe-biden-policies-health-care-433626) " for the U.S. health care system, however his ability to do so may turn on control of the [Senate] (https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-donald-trump-virus-outbreak-senate-elections-30e139b2435439fc8497304cdca600dd) . A "public option" would be a federally-administered insurance plan open to the public. The date a "public option" would be available would be immaterial. If relevant legislation does not become law, the question will close No on the appropriate party control bin as of the closing date. 19 January 2021 - In pondering the likelihood of a "public option" health insurance plan in the US before 2023, Good Judgment's professional Superforecasters examine such issues as the incoming administration's priority list, filibuster, and the possible budget reconciliation process. Several Superforecasters assign greater probability that the Biden administration will pursue other, less politically challenging options.
6	Before 1 January 2023, will the United States ratify the TPP and/or the CPTPP?	https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/	Good Judgment	false	none	Opened 20 November 2020 Control of the U.S. Senate will impact the next administration's policy options, including the ratification of [global] (https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/11/16/business/economy-business/japan-rcep-joe-biden-us/) [trade] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/04/biden-would-want-the-us-to-rejoin-tpp-says-harvard-scholar.html) [agreements] (https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R43491.pdf) , in this case ratification requiring a simple majority in both the Senate and the House. President Trump withdrew the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement ( [TPP] (https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp) ) [prior] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-tpp-mcconnell/obamas-tpp-deal-wont-get-senate-vote-this-year-mcconnell-idUSKCN1102CM) to ratification, and remaining parties went forward without the US and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership ( [CPTPP] (https://www.international.gc.ca/trade-commerce/trade-agreements-accords-commerciaux/agr-acc/cptpp-ptpgp/index.aspx?lang=eng) ). Ratification of a revised trade deal which includes the same members as TPP/CPTPP (Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam) would count. If no relevant trade deal is ratified, the question will close No on the appropriate party control bin as of the closing date. 19 January 2021 - With almost two years remaining in the timeframe of the question, Good Judgment's professional Superforecasters currently see a low (2%) probability on aggregate that the US will ratify the TPP and/or CPTPP. It doesn't appear as one of the Biden administration's priorities, but the effect of China's actions will be something to watch.
7	What will be the U.S. real GDP for the second quarter of 2021 relative to the U.S. real GDP for the second quarter of 2019?	https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/	Good Judgment	false	none	Opened 1 May 2020 Speculations are wide and numerous about how much the Covid [outbreak] (https://www.morningstar.com/articles/976107/coronavirus-update-long-term-economic-impact-forecast-to-be-less-than-2008-recession) will [impact] (https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56335) U.S. real [GDP] (https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-hit-to-us-economy-gdp-jobs-only-just-starting-2020-4) in the long term. The outcome will be determined using data for both Q2 2019 and Q2 2021 from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data ( [FRED] (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1) ) database upon the release of BEA's advance estimate for Q2 2021. Historical data are also available on [BEA] (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey) 's website (select "view data in XLS or other formats, and see Table 1.1.6 in the Section 1 file). The real GDP reported for Q2 2019 as of launch was $19,021.860 billion (subject to future revisions). 27 January 2021 - Vaccine rollout, however slow, and the expected additional stimulus bill are good news for the economic outlook in the United States. The second quarter of 2021 may not yet be the time when their full benefits are felt, but Good Judgment's Superforecasters predict the country should be well on the way to a modest economic growth by then. Some segments of the society, especially white-collar workers, did not experience the economic fallout from the pandemic as acutely as their blue-collar counterparts did, and these are the segments that tend to have most impact on the economy through consumer spending. Companies are expected to increase economic activity in anticipation of recovery. Superforecasters are assigning the highest probability (68%) to the second-quarter GDP for 2021 being lower by 0% to 5% relative to the second quarter of 2019, and 29% probability to it being higher. There is now zero probability on aggregate that Q2 2021 GDP will be lower by more than 10% relative to the corresponding figure for 2019.
8	When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?	https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/	Good Judgment	false	none	Opened 15 December 2020 This question was commissioned by [Open Philanthropy] (https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic) . Dozens of [companies] (https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines) are trying to [develop] (https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine) a [viable] (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html) vaccine for COVID-19. The [FDA] (https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-key-action-fight-against-covid-19-issuing-emergency-use-authorization-first-covid-19) has authorized [Pfizer] (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/12/how-fedex-ups-plan-to-distribute-fda-approved-covid-vaccine-when-will-you-get-the-coronavirus-vaccine.html) 's COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found [here] (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101) and [here] (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization) . " [Compassionate use] (https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access) " and " [emergency use] (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization) " authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately [169.1] (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm) million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). 11 January 2021 - Superforecasters currently assign 77% probability that the US will see distribution of enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100mn people between 1 April and 31 May 2021 (Bin C). Bin B "is aspirational at best," according to one Superforecaster. Change in the recommended dosage or the advent of J&J and AstraZeneca vaccines, which do not require the same cold storage as the Pfizer vaccine, could propel distribution toward Bin B timeline ("Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"); however, Superforecasters assign this outcome about 10% probability. On the other hand, slippage along the logistics chain could lead to a Bin D resolution ("Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021"), with 11% probability.
9	When will Germany report that 75 million cumulative vaccine doses for COVID-19 have been given?	https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/	Good Judgment	false	none	Opened 15 January 2021 The Pfizer vaccine was developed with German partner BioNTech, but the rollout in Germany has been [criticized] (https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-vaccine-german-health-minister-jens-spahn-under-fire/a-56144390) for being [slow] (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-germany/scarce-doses-and-empty-vaccination-centres-germanys-vaccine-rollout-headache-idUSKBN29F0BP) . The outcome will be determined using data published by the German government's [Robert Koch Institut] (https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Impfquoten-Tab.html) [in German]. Click on the first link under "Daten" at the bottom of the page to download an xlsx file. In the xlsx file that opens (currently named "Impfquotenmonitoring.xlsx"), see the "Gesamt_bis_einschl_[date]" (Total up to and including [date]) sheet. Refer to column "Gesamtzahl bisher verabreichter Impfstoffdosen" (Total number of vaccine doses given to date) in the row "Gesamt" (Total). The question will resolve on the date indicated in the xlsx file. Whether a particular vaccine's regimen requires one or more doses is immaterial. 22 January 2021 - This question opened on 15 January. To gauge initial estimates, professional Superforecasters are looking at the evolving vaccination rate, breakdown by population groups, and statements by Germany's health officials. Unless the supply and speed of inoculations are improved significantly, Superforecasters are seeing low probability this would resolve before Q3.
10	When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?	https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/	Good Judgment	false	none	Opened 7 December 2020 The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is [pushing] (https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/08/944125280/u-k-begins-nationwide-coronavirus-immunization-largest-in-nations-history) to [execute] (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55227325) its [plan] (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-protocol-for-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-bnt162b2-pfizerbiontech) . The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the [UK] (https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus) [government] (https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1339167258866814976) . For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people. 6 January 2020 - Superforecasters currently see the highest (50%) probability that 35 million people in the UK will have been vaccinated between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021 (Bin C). Potential issues with logistics, up to 25% of population reportedly [skeptical] (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-conspiraci-idUSKBN28H0FI) of the vaccine, and the spread of Covid-19 mutations, on the one hand, and the positive impact of approving additional vaccines on the other, have been pointed out among the factors that will affect the resolution of this question. Probability of Bin E ("Not before 1 September 2021") is deemed very low because of one-shot resolution criteria and a fairly limited bar of 52.5% of population vaccinated paired with AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine approval.
11	In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?	https://goodjudgment.io/economist/	Good Judgment	false	none	Opened 9 October 2020 In its 2020 report, The [Conference] (https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/boardpractices) [Board] (https://conferenceboard.esgauge.org/assets/Corporate%20Board%20Practices%202020%20Edition.pdf) reported that in 2019 only about 10 percent of S&P 500 companies explicitly disclosed [board] (https://www.economist.com/business/2019/11/07/how-to-make-your-firm-more-diverse-and-inclusive) members' races; among those identified, 78% of directors were white. The outcome will be determined using data for firms that disclose their individual directors' races in The Conference Board's 2022 Corporate Board Practices [report] (https://www.conference-board.org/us/) . 04 January 2021 - Bin B ("Between 23% and 27%, inclusive") remains a clear leader among the options since the question launched in October. A new NASDAQ rule for disclosing board composition by gender and race is a sign of a trend toward increased diversity expectations; however, the way things stand at present, the shift may not be rapid enough to go beyond 27% in 2021.
12	What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?	https://goodjudgment.io/economist/	Good Judgment	false	none	Opened 9 October 2020 The International Monetary Fund ( [IMF] (https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020) ) and [others] (https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/09/16/is-the-world-economy-recovering) are projecting a significant [contraction] (https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/) in the global economy in the coming years. The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2022, which is expected in April 2022. At the IMF [website] (https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending) , choose the appropriate "World Economic Outlook Database"; then choose "Entire Dataset"; then download the "By Country Groups" file in the "Tab Delimited Values" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as "Gross domestic product, current prices" and Units as "Purchasing power parity; international dollars." Scroll over to the appropriate year. World GDP for 2019 in current prices, purchasing power parity, was $142,005.65 billion according to the [April 2020] (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2020/01/weodata/WEOApr2020alla.xls) report. 04 January 2021 - Bin D ("Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive") remains the Superforecasters' top choice for the resolution of this question. Positive news on vaccine roll-out and Asia's economic recovery appeared to solidify this position.
13	What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?	https://goodjudgment.io/economist/	Good Judgment	false	none	Opened 9 October 2020 Interest in [sustainable] (https://www.morningstar.com/articles/994219/sustainable-funds-continue-to-rake-in-assets-during-the-second-quarter) [sector] (https://www.morningstar.com/articles/984776/theres-ample-room-for-sustainable-investing-to-grow-in-the-us) [investment] (https://www.economist.com/business/2020/10/03/the-proliferation-of-sustainability-accounting-standards-comes-with-costs) [has] (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-25/trump-administration-targets-esg-funds-with-proposed-401-k-rule) been high in Europe and is increasing in the U.S.; the first half of 2020 has already seen nearly as much in the way of annual sustainable funds flows in the U.S. as in all of 2019. The outcome will be determined using [data] (https://www.morningstar.com/lp/global-esg-flows) from [Morningstar] (https://www.morningstar.com/articles/961765/sustainable-fund-flows-in-2019-smash-previous-records) for sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. for 2020 and 2021. 04 January 2021 - Of the three options, Bin B ("Higher by between 0% and 100%") remains the most likely one. However, Bin C ("Higher by more than 100%") saw a slight increase in the past week. Superforecasters are noting the success of ESG funds in the US in 2020 and potential ESG-friendly developments a Biden administration is likely to bring.
14	When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?	https://goodjudgment.io/economist/	Good Judgment	false	none	Opened 9 October 2020 Dozens of companies are trying to [develop] (https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines) a [viable] (https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine) [vaccine] (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html) for COVID-19. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived [can] (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101) be [ found] (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization) [here] (https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access) . "Compassionate use" and "emergency use" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also [count] (https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access) . Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the [2018-2019] (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm) flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 200 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 400 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question). 8 January 2021 - A bottleneck in vaccinations has been curbing distribution numbers. Superforecasters continue to debate whether this question will resolve in Q2 or Q3 of 2021. Their commentary highlights the view that once early errors in distribution are resolved and more vaccines become approved and available, distribution pace would pick up. But would it slip just beyond Q2?
15	As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who "worked from home exclusively"?	https://goodjudgment.io/economist/	Good Judgment	false	none	Opened 9 October 2020 The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many [workers] (https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/09/12/covid-19-has-forced-a-radical-shift-in-working-habits) to work from [home] (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487) , and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed. The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 1 October 2020, the [ONS] (https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/1october2020#social-impacts-of-the-coronavirus-on-great-britain) reported that 24% of working adults worked from home exclusively (see Figure 2 under Section 3). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 1 July 2021. 04 January 2021 - Ever since this question opened, Bin B ("More than 10% but less than 20%") has been a clear leader and continues to gain ground since the end of October. Although certain advantages to working from home (WFH) are noted, from savings in company budgets to reduced emissions from commute, the percentage of jobs that lend themselves exclusively to remote work is relatively low and municipalities need tax revenue from downtown business where people spending on lunch hours, breaks, and after-work get-togethers.