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metaforecast/data/elicit-questions.csv

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1TitleURLPlatformBinary question?PercentageDescription# Forecasts
2Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%2050%20prediction%20questions%20embedded%20in%20LessWrong%20posts%20and%20comments%20this%20month?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue56.39%337
3Will more than 50 people predict on this post?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more%20than%2050%20people%20predict%20on%20this%20post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue82.03%230
4Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue36.85%158
5Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20without%20additional%20intervention%20from%20the%20existing%20AI%20Alignment%20research%20community?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue52.70%137
6Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20arms%20race%20dynamic%20in%20the%20lead-up%20to%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue75.52%113
7The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20new%20English%20Strain%20is%20at%20least%2050%%20more%20infectious%20than%20the%20currently%20dominant%20American%20strain%20of%20Covid-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue63.37%211
8Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20single%20AGI%20or%20AGI%20project%20achieve%20a%20decisive%20strategic%20advantage?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue61.63%115
9How vivid is your visual imagination?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue50.68%119
10Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%20deep%20learning%20with%20small%20variations,%20without%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue33.50%110
11Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue42.70%107
12Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20we%20build%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue11.79%100
13How vivid is your sound imagination?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20sound%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue61.17%106
14Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20another%20AI%20Winter%20(a%20period%20commonly%20referred%20to%20as%20such)%20before%20we%20develop%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue28.63%95
15Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%201-3%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue43.12%112
16There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20an%20additional%20distinct%20large%20wave%20of%20Covid-19%20infections%20in%20the%20United%20States%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue58.18%158
17How vivid is your taste imagination?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20taste%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue25.73%84
18How vivid is your smell imagination?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20smell%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue25.41%82
19Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20need%20>%203%20breakthroughs%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning%20to%20get%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue25.38%84
20Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue19.76%87
21How frequently do you think in words?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue78.13%86
22Do you have an internal monologue?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue82.28%80
23How vivid is your touch imagination?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue36.13%79
24How good is your memory?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue52.65%78
25How much control do you have over your mind?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20much%20control%20do%20you%20have%20over%20your%20mind?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue45.59%76
26Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue42.76%85
27Trump will win a second termhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20win%20a%20second%20term&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue46.20%74
28Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue31.56%66
29Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20continue%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue24.51%75
30Will the post "Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the%20post%20"Embedded%20Interactive%20Predictions%20on%20LessWrong"%20get%20more%20than%2080%20karma%20by%20December%201st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue89.52%83
31Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5xhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Having%20a%20button/prompt%20for%20Elicit%20on%20LW%20would%20increase%20usage%20by%20at%20least%205x&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue60.22%41
32By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025%20bitcoin%20will%20no%20longer%20be%20the%20highest%20traded%20cryptocurrency.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue55.49%37
33A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Singularity%20will%20not%20occur%20by%20the%20year%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue68.71%42
34Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue61.12%42
35Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign statehttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202025,%20most%20of%20Russia%20will%20become%20part%20of%20the%20United%20States,%20or%20the%20reverse,%20or%20they%20will%20in%20some%20other%20manner%20become%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state,%20or%20part%20of%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue0.79%34
36The Pope will be assassinated.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Pope%20will%20be%20assassinated.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue3.03%32
37PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue83.00%40
38Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue36.91%34
39Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue47.38%47
40"There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin" --Bill Walker, BBChttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin"%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue2.91%33
41The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue38.97%31
42Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue8.81%31
43Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue54.94%47
44Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue47.00%34
45No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue82.13%32
46No military draft in the United States before 2020.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue90.27%33
47Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organised%20religions%20will%20no%20longer%20exist%20in%20any%20meaningful%20way%20and%20religion%20will%20no%20longer%20have%20any%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue8.68%28
48Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue40.24%42
49California will secede from the United States before 2021https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue0.68%34
50Trump wins Nobelhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue10.55%38
51Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue0.23%26
52Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue1.88%26
53...be an environmental disaster.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue26.37%27
54Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue46.84%32
55For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue58.56%34
56The Singularity will occur by 2050.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue35.12%25
5750% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legghttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue24.39%28
58"I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases."https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue9.69%26
59Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue7.46%26
60Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue84.11%27
61Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue62.27%26
62Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue19.35%23
63PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue68.88%25
64By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue6.67%24
65Will there be an "Inverse AlphaFold" by end of 2025?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20"Inverse%20AlphaFold"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue33.91%33
66The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue37.46%24
67Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue99.41%22
68TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue58.15%39
69Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue20.48%29
70Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue60.84%32
71...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue70.19%21
72In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue26.36%25
73Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue11.68%22
74Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue15.33%21
75Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue27.83%35
76Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue4.74%23
77China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue7.45%22
78Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue34.13%47
79Google will survive for 15 more yearshttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue88.38%21
80Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue21.64%22
81Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue56.94%35
82Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue39.69%35
83...all-things-considered, be good for the world.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue80.89%27
84...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue48.40%20
85...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue17.05%20
86No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue86.75%24
87Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue83.14%22
88...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue36.38%21
89Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Strosshttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue2.21%19
90Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue54.20%20
91United States will invade Australia and take overhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue10.00%21
92No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue74.85%20
93Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue6.95%20
9490% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legghttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue47.05%21
95The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue72.43%23
96What percentage of people experience a "Clogged drainpipe" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20"Clogged%20drainpipe"%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue64.34%50
97Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue64.80%40
98The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decadehttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue67.55%22
99We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue12.05%21
100“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue40.27%26
101Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue51.78%18
102Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presencehttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue3.32%22
103There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue64.28%18
104The strategy-stealing assumption is "a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20"a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue33.27%26
105“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue35.00%23
106'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarkehttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue1.80%25
107The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue83.95%21
108Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue12.79%19
109Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue47.17%23
110Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue26.89%19
111A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue30.95%20
112A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue21.62%21
113Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue69.33%18
114aliens invade earth in 2023https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue0.94%18
115My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue8.39%18
116It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue1.72%18
117US presidents term limits abolishedhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue2.24%17
118A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue4.90%20
119Man will travel to Mars by 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue42.89%18
120Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential electionhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue95.32%19
121If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue77.71%17
122An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue57.78%18
123Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue4.13%16
124By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue34.67%18
125Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable "in ten thousand years, or so"https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue19.11%19
126Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue35.53%19
127An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue8.12%17
128Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue11.81%16
129A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue43.47%19
130The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue28.00%20
131Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue59.36%25
132Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue76.55%20
133Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue14.48%25
134If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue66.47%17
135If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue29.44%16
136If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue73.94%17
137The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue78.12%17
138Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue56.90%29
139Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue3.71%17
140C still widely in use in the 2020shttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue93.53%15
141Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue92.69%16
142USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue41.47%17
143Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue55.18%17
144There will NOT be a "World War III" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's "allies" and NATO and/or western europe)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20"World%20War%20III"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20"allies"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue93.31%16
145The message begins with "Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow". Should we execute it?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue7.86%14
146I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue82.20%15
147North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue5.94%17
148The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue17.00%15
149In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue9.47%15
150Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue47.39%18
151If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue17.39%18
152By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue53.00%14
153"by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system"https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue6.20%15
154Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue11.19%16
155The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue9.82%17
156The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue30.26%19
157"Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs." --James Millerhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs."%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue9.55%20
158A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue8.79%14
159Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue87.18%17
160Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue7.00%18
161Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue14.00%15
162The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue11.73%15
163By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue28.21%14
164Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hansonhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue27.64%14
165We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue40.84%19
166There be a "SETI Winter" before First Contact.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20"SETI%20Winter"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue73.89%19
167Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, "How to create a mind")https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue26.75%16
168Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue29.33%18
169The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue18.54%13
170The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue14.62%13
171Trump dies of COVID-19https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue6.63%32
172ETI is AGIhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue84.61%18
173Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from todayhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue33.75%16
17410 millionhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue8.42%36
175If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI "spaceship" be larger than 1m in size?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20"spaceship"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue51.36%14
176All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue4.92%13
177North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue5.33%15
178Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldthttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue32.06%16
179Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue85.31%16
180Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue13.37%19
181USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue4.50%16
182The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue44.46%26
183Humanity still a thing in 2036https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue89.00%13
184Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue10.69%16
185By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue11.08%13
186By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vancehttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue44.15%13
187In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue14.69%13
188Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue4.08%13
189Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue29.79%14
190"The Essential Workers" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="The%20Essential%20Workers"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue40.27%15
191Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue9.47%15
192Truly "Pilotless" air travel will be the standard in 2050.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20"Pilotless"%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue62.71%14
193By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue38.31%13
194100 millionhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue0.79%29
195If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to "train it away"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20"train%20it%20away"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue63.15%26
196Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue18.25%12
197The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue46.69%13
198the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshanskyhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue7.64%14
199In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue46.07%14
200The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue30.40%15
201The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue51.07%14
202"Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150." -lukeproghttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150."%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue66.54%13
203There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue63.00%13
204Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue49.24%33
205If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue70.00%15
206Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue4.64%14
207Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue86.83%12
208Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue63.33%15
209'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevinhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue14.17%12
210Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue14.33%15
2111 year continuous human habitation of the moonhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue15.93%14
212At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new sitehttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue78.92%13
213The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue17.50%14
214Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue52.47%15
215If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue43.11%19
216Alphabet/Google buys Microsofthttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue7.71%14
217Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adamshttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue0.60%15
218“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue35.00%12
219By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweilhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue2.73%15
220Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldthttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue37.08%13
221Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldthttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue69.69%13
222We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue24.33%12
223No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue60.83%12
224“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue3.83%12
225Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue33.58%12
226North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue20.25%16
227Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue1.31%13
228some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 yearshttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue3.77%13
229At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue29.08%12
230A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue38.64%11
231China will land a man on Mars by 2050.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue43.08%13
232The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue28.88%25
233"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones" --Marc Andreessenhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue75.17%12
234"there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years." - Scott Adamshttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years."%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue20.73%11
235'President Mike Pence'https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue14.06%16
236Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue9.00%12
237With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue8.92%13
238Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue33.20%15
239"within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million." --Dennis Manganhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million."%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue64.82%11
240The LW user account "Grognor" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20"Grognor"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue45.92%13
241The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue2.42%12
242Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue44.08%12
243Republicans will win the 2024 presidential electionhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue45.69%13
244Trump wins the 2020 election.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue47.54%13
245“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Andersonhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue8.00%11
246The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue56.86%14
247As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue67.79%14
248Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue10.29%14
249The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue55.00%26
250The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue40.82%22
251By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue93.25%12
252At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue23.67%12
253Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue28.09%11
254We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue52.69%13
255By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue31.38%13
256In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue1.00%11
257People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue33.09%11
258No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demohttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue45.31%13
259Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue21.27%11
260Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue5.42%12
261Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the "same"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some "final being"?https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20"same"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20"final%20being"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue26.27%11
262Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue10.00%14
26350 millionhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue1.65%34
264Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldthttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue31.64%11
265Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue57.00%13
266GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue41.54%13
267Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue3.54%13
268SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue13.67%12
269Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldthttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue68.67%12
270Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldthttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue65.93%14
271They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue55.57%14
272"At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150."https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue56.21%14
273Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the electionhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue10.18%11
274"By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation."https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation."&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue16.33%12
275The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue28.43%14
276Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue23.38%24
277“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue40.91%11
278Trump will run for president in 2024https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue20.38%13
279Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue24.75%12
280Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue10.79%14
281No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue77.83%12
282Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as "very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?"https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue29.64%11
283No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue52.73%11
284Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue19.80%10
285Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue29.08%13
286SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue70.67%12
287More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue26.38%13
288We ask ETI "do we live in a simulation"? They answer "yes".https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation"?%20They%20answer%20"yes".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue17.92%13
289A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue12.09%11
290Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue15.50%12
291By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue75.09%11
292Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUShttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue11.30%10
293Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Marshttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue17.30%10
294Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue1.36%11
295EU to dissolve by 2040.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue39.45%11
296“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue11.46%13
297“China will break apart by 2030”https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue24.60%10
298By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearcehttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue16.00%10
299Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldthttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue10.92%12
300Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue27.79%14
301Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue46.70%10
302Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Greyhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue13.14%14
303Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue0.50%10
304Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue34.38%16
305". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form." --Dan Kinghttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form."%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue11.46%13
306“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue7.42%12
307In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue20.40%10
308By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue30.90%10
309Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue22.08%12
310By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue60.36%11
311Caitlyn Jenner = POTUShttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue4.20%10
312By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue13.08%12
313Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue26.10%10
314HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue56.91%11
315WWIII starts before 2030.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue8.86%14
316HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue7.09%11
317The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue6.09%11
318Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20 By%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue77.10%10
319By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue33.46%13
320Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on ithttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue21.70%10
321P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Kenhttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue44.17%12
322Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue55.60%10
323A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue41.30%10
324homosexuality criminalized in the UShttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue2.50%10
325At least one self-described "anarchist" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20"anarchist"%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue36.82%11
3261,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue41.08%13
327Airbnb to be acquired by 2025https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue34.64%11
328In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbughttps://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue9.36%14
329By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue15.80%10
330Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue48.00%10
331The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0Elicittrue78.90%10