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metaforecast/data/smarkets-questions.json

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Added smarkets
2021-02-16 14:18:23 +00:00
[
{
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"title": "Next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnson",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Contracts to be added on request",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Sajid Javid",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.03746229444390386,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rory Stewart",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.0009730466089325679,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.025591125814926532,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Penny Mordaunt",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.027050695728325382,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jeremy Hunt",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.10810547825240828,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "James Cleverly",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dominic Raab",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.06490220881580228,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Tugendhat",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.06276150627615062,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Priti Patel",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.05264182154325192,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Amber Rudd",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.00544906101002238,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Johnny Mercer",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Gove",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.0810547825240829,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Matthew Hancock",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.05264182154325192,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liz Truss",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.07482728422691447,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gavin Williamson",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.03892186435730271,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrea Leadsom",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.013914566507735718,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Geoffrey Cox",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tobias Ellwood",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Steve Baker",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.030359054198696115,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ruth Davidson",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.023158509292595112,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Esther McVey",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.009730466089325677,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Philip Hammond",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rishi Sunak",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.2904544127663715,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:32:59.314Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Gender of next Conservative leader",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "What will be the gender of the next permanent Conservative Party leader, after Boris Johnson?",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Male",
"probability": 0.7736942156241513,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Female",
"probability": 0.22630578437584864,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:32:59.665Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Next German Chancellor after Angela Merkel",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/974485/politics/europe/germany/next-german-chancellor-2019",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Friedrich Merz",
Daily commit
2021-04-04 17:52:59 +00:00
"probability": 0.005478779949300842,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer",
Daily commit
2021-04-04 17:52:59 +00:00
"probability": 0.017744705208929592,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jens Spahn",
Daily commit
2021-04-04 17:52:59 +00:00
"probability": 0.05274347861640363,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Armin Laschet",
Daily commit
2021-04-04 17:52:59 +00:00
"probability": 0.32709134025676667,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robert Habeck",
Daily commit
2021-04-04 17:52:59 +00:00
"probability": 0.07114236650584675,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alice Weidel",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrea Nahles",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Daniel Gunther",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ralph Brinkhaus",
Daily commit
2021-04-04 17:52:59 +00:00
"probability": 0.03409927222176792,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Wolfgang Schäuble",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Julia Klockner",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Heiko Maas",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Malu Dreyer",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Peter Altmaier",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ralf Stegner",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ursula Von der Leyen",
Daily commit
2021-04-04 17:52:59 +00:00
"probability": 0.025513124540027802,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sahra Wagenknecht",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Martin Sonneborn",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Markus Söder",
Daily commit
2021-04-04 17:52:59 +00:00
"probability": 0.3683866219641835,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Olaf Scholz",
Daily commit
2021-04-04 17:52:59 +00:00
"probability": 0.01169351541417941,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Norbert Röttgen",
Daily commit
2021-04-04 17:52:59 +00:00
"probability": 0.002698503557118325,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Annalena Baerbock",
Daily commit
2021-04-04 17:52:59 +00:00
"probability": 0.0834082917654755,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:00.021Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Next permanent leader of the SNP after Nicola Sturgeon",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/1467262/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/snp-leader",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Derek Mackay",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Humza Yousaf",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Stewart Hosie",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mhairi Black",
"probability": null
},
{
"name": "Shona Robison",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Swinney",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Keith Brown",
"probability": null
},
{
"name": "Joanna Cherry",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Angus Robertson",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alex Salmond",
"probability": null
},
{
"name": "Michael Matheson",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tommy Sheppard",
"probability": null
},
{
"name": "Angela Constance",
"probability": null
},
{
"name": "Roseanna Cunningham",
"probability": null
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:00.412Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Year in which Boris Johnson will cease to be Prime Minister",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.009484966328369536,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.00009484966328369536,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2021",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.1281418950962724,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2022 or later",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.8622782889120744,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:00.764Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Boris Johnson to be the last Prime Minister of a four country UK",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "With disruptions caused by the post Brexit settlement with the EU could the country could split apart. This would make Boris Johnson the last PM of a four-country UK. ",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05664798777381558,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9433520122261844,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:01.128Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Next Prime Minister after Boris Johnson",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/4765465/politics/uk/next-pm/next-pm",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Contracts to be added on request",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Jeremy Corbyn",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.011361959569130883,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nigel Farage",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.007746790615316511,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jo Swinson",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.08779696030692045,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Keir Starmer",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.1570016231370813,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rebecca Long-Bailey",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.010550391028478675,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sajid Javid",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.024568393094289504,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Angela Rayner",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dominic Raab",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.041021100782056945,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emily Thornberry",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.024568393094289504,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rory Stewart",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.01601003393832079,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Amber Rudd",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.02169101372288623,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dominic Grieve",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Johnny Mercer",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Gove",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.041021100782056945,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Penny Mordaunt",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ruth Davidson",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.020510550391028472,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Watson",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.01601003393832079,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yvette Cooper",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.028404898922827205,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gavin Williamson",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Geoffrey Cox",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "James Cleverly",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jeremy Hunt",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.06706507304116864,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John McDonnell",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lisa Nandy",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.03688947912055481,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liz Truss",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.03511878412276818,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Priti Patel",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.03511878412276818,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Tugendhat",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ken Clarke",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.04471004869411243,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Harriet Harman",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.007377895824110962,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Margaret Beckett",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.054670208056662235,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rishi Sunak",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.2107864836948502,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Matthew Hancock",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:01.477Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Year of next General Election",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/34757345/politics/uk/year-next-general-election-2020/year-next-ge-2020",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "2020",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.04493978069387021,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2021",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.06417400683084666,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2022",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.0691173827071724,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2023",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.17975912277548084,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2024 or later",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.6420097069926299,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:01.713Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Year of next Scottish referendum",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/39181409/politics/uk/scottish-independence/year-scottish-referendum",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"probability": 0.07764344119085889,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2021",
"probability": 0.04822139911943532,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2022",
"probability": 0.17471521420085262,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2023",
"probability": 0.09986721643720735,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2024",
"probability": 0.2729750506674121,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2025 or later",
"probability": 0.3265776783842337,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:02.070Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Next Cabinet Member to leave",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41589478/politics/uk/cabinet/next-cabinet-member-to-leave",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Boris Johnson",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.03810107734080757,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rishi Sunak",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.04379434177104319,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dominic Raab",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Priti Patel",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.08758868354208638,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Gove",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.08338442673206622,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robert Buckland",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.0700709468336691,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ben Wallace",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.10423053341508279,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Matt Hancock",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.09520889901024789,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alok Sharma",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.1510028904265569,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Elizabeth Truss",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.04738547779626873,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Thérèse Coffey",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gavin Williamson",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.12884295349040906,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "George Eustice",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robert Jenrick",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.06735569764386443,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Grant Shapps",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brandon Lewis",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.04493299465709031,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alister Jack",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Simon Hart",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Baroness Evans of Bowes Park",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Oliver Dowden",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Amanda Milling",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.03810107734080757,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:02.412Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Party to get the most seats",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41607302/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/most-seats-by-party",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Contracts to be added on request.",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.3905262220639302,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservatives",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.5599679458641261,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.04950583207194372,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:02.761Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "USA and UK to sign a trade deal in 2021",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41616796/politics/uk/brexit/uk-usa-trade-deal",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-03-18 21:57:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.2967147740220281,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-03-18 21:57:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.7032852259779718,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:02.996Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Year of next General Election in Hungary",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41618602/politics/europe/hungary/year-of-next-general-election",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "The Hungarian parliament passed a state of emergency bill in March 2020 giving prime minister Viktor Orbán the power to rule by decree, only ending when Orbán's government sees fit. During this period, no elections will be held. The next Hungarian parliamentary election is scheduled to take place in 2022 or earlier, but will it?",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "2022 or earlier",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.41877068864801714,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2023",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.1937431037839943,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2024",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.1937431037839943,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2025 or later",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.1937431037839943,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:03.338Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Most seats in the Welsh Assembly Elections 2021",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41618654/politics/uk/2021-welsh-senedd-election/welsh-assembly-elections-2021",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.7438850205320477,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservatives",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.21255133011962146,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.030798071772897697,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.012765577575432957,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:03.685Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Winner of the 2022 French presidential election",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which candidate will win the 2022 French presidential election?",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Emmanuel Macron",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.5228430934286992,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marine Le Pen",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.20321859633437642,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.045864997764863656,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "François Baroin",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.06383549396513187,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Xavier Bertrand",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.03442109968708092,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yannick Jadot",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.044702726866338846,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Olivier Faure",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.04255699597675458,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jean-Marie Bigard",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jean Lassalle",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joachim Son-Forget",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Anne Hidalgo",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.04255699597675458,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bernard Cazeneuve",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Arnaud Montebourg",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ségolène Royal",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Florian Philippot",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Edouard Philippe",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:03.933Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Macron first round vote share",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "What will incumbent president Emmanuel Macron's vote share be in the first round of the 2022 French presidential election?",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Under 25%",
"probability": 0.5155602574274882,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "25% or over",
"probability": 0.48443974257251166,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:04.292Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Next permanent leader of the Labour Party, after Keir Starmer",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Keir Starmer was elected Labour Party leader on 4 April 2020. Who will be his successor?\r\n\r\nOther candidates available on request.",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Angela Rayner",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.22904211505247773,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lisa Nandy",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.11066826092732829,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sadiq Khan",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.10216553739869803,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rebecca Long-Bailey",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.03693370532748771,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Anneliese Dodds",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.06815464328417696,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rosena Allin-Khan",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.06642752756742394,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andy Burnham",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.147601966254816,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yvette Cooper",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.057791948983658824,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Clive Lewis",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.06988175900092998,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John McDonnell",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.03693370532748771,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ian Lavery",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Jarvis",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.03015809751561047,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emily Thornberry",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nick Thomas-Symonds",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sam Tarry",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Louise Haigh",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Richard Burgon",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dawn Butler",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Carden",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jess Phillips",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "David Lammy",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jon Trickett",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Barry Gardiner",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Seema Malhotra",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.04424073335990435,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jonathan Ashworth",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ed Miliband",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Hilary Benn",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Stella Creasy",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rachel Reeves",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Laura Pidcock",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Charlotte Nichols",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kate Osborne",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Margaret Greenwood",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Zarah Sultana",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Wes Streeting",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
},
{
"name": "Jim McMahon",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
},
{
"name": "Alison McGovern",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
},
{
"name": "Bridget Phillipson",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:04.545Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Gender of the next Labour leader",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "The Labour Party has never had a permanent female leader. Could Keir Starmer's successor be the first?",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Female",
"probability": 0.5508474576271186,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Male",
"probability": 0.4491525423728813,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:04.896Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "First Minister to leave the Cabinet?",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41636607/politics/uk/cabinet/raab-versus-hancock-first-to-go",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "With the controversies over the ordering of PPE and the delivery of it to hospitals will Dominic Raab or Matt Hancock leave the Cabinet first? ",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Dominic Raab",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"probability": 0.4085036637099884,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Matt Hancock",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"probability": 0.5914963362900116,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:05.146Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Keir Starmer exit date",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41659361/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/keir-starmer-exit-date",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "When will Keir Starmer cease to be leader of the Labour Party?",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "2023 or earlier",
Daily commit
2021-03-28 12:02:57 +00:00
"probability": 0.4925623091321052,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2024",
Daily commit
2021-03-28 12:02:57 +00:00
"probability": 0.17909565560043345,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2025 or later",
Daily commit
2021-03-28 12:02:57 +00:00
"probability": 0.3283420352674613,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:05.526Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "2021 London mayoral election winner",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41659442/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/2021-london-mayoral-election",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Who will be elected mayor of London in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Sadiq Khan",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.9521143656902924,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Shaun Bailey",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.01179646106168149,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Siân Berry",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.00009997000899730077,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.00009997000899730077,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brian Rose",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.033290012996101154,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mandu Reid",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.00009997000899730077,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Luisa Porritt",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.00009997000899730077,
Daily update; this time with metaculus questions which haven't resolved yet
2021-03-08 22:17:08 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Laurence Fox",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.0019994001799460153,
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "David Kurten",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.00009997000899730077,
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Piers Corbyn",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.00009997000899730077,
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Farah London",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.00009997000899730077,
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Peter Gammons",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.00009997000899730077,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:05.879Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Sadiq Khan to get over 50% in first round",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41659455/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/sadiq-khan-to-win-on-first-preferences",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Will Sadiq Khan receive over 50% of the vote in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.40899795501022496,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.591002044989775,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:06.130Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "2021 West Midlands mayoral election winner",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41664162/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-midlands-mayoral-election-winner",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Who will be elected mayor of the West Midlands in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Andy Street",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.7692382244621051,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liam Byrne",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.23076177553789493,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Beverley Nielsen",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kathryn Downs",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:06.501Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "2021 Tees Valley mayoral election winner",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41664244/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-tees-valley-mayoral-election-winner",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Who will be elected mayor of the Tees Valley in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Ben Houchen",
Daily commit
2021-03-28 12:02:57 +00:00
"probability": 0.7575454545454545,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jessie Joe Jacobs",
Daily commit
2021-03-28 12:02:57 +00:00
"probability": 0.24245454545454548,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:06.847Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Scottish Parliament election 2021 winner",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41664419/politics/uk/2021-scottish-parliament-election/scottish-parliament-election-2021",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily commit
2021-04-05 14:39:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.9222242921013412,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-05 14:39:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.014344262295081966,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-04-05 14:39:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.011643070044709387,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
Daily commit
2021-04-05 14:39:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.05178837555886735,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:07.215Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Scottish Parliament election 2021 most seats (w/o SNP)",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41664420/politics/uk/2021-scottish-parliament-election/scottish-parliament-election-2021-winner-w-o-snp",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party (excluding the SNP) will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.543215174663119,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.33010042056475836,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.08582954252853832,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Green",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.040854862243584235,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:07.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Local elections highest vote share",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41665773/politics/uk/local-elections/highest-vote-share",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will receive the highest national equivalent vote share at the 2021 United Kingdom local elections?",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.6850305021116846,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.31496949788831535,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:07.915Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Next permanent leader of fine gael after Leo Varadkar",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41669531/politics/europe/ireland/fine-gael-leader",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Contracts to be added on request.",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Simon Coveney",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.6111636707663197,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Paschal Donohoe",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.09145380006307156,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Helen McEntee",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.1142646904236308,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Josepha Madigan",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.0875643855776306,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Simon Harris",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.0955534531693472,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Heather Humphreys",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eoghan Murphy",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Charles Flanagan",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sean Kyne",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Richard Bruton",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Paul Kehoe",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Martin Heydon",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joe McHugh",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Ring",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Creed",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Colm Brophy",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:08.264Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Irish reunification referendum before 2023",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41676064/politics/uk/scotland/irish-reunification-referendum-before-2023",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Will Northern Ireland hold a referendum on Irish reunification on or before 31 December 2022?",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.17491691446562882,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.8250830855343712,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:08.601Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Next Scottish First Minister",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41696009/politics/uk/scotland/next-scottish-first-minister",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Who will be the next First Minister of Scotland after Nicola Sturgeon? Other contracts available on request.",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Kate Forbes",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.32232651692926584,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Angus Robertson",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Swinney",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.32232651692926584,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Keith Brown",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Humza Yousaf",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Shirley-Anne Somerville",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Russell",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ruth Davidson",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.14582634931277239,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Shona Robison",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Richard Leonard",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mhairi Black",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Matheson",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joanna Cherry",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.20952061682869597,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jackson Carlaw",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Stewart Hosie",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:08.960Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "French Presidential election to happen before 2022",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41709221/politics/europe/france/early-presidential-election",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1252665739452944,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8747334260547056,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:09.304Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Will Keir Starmer face a leadership challenge?",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41730234/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/keir-starmer-to-face-leadership-challenge",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Will any candidate receive the nominations of at least 20% of Labour MPs to challenge Keir Starmer for the party leadership before the next UK general election?",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.17219113215669393,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8278088678433061,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:09.652Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "UK to begin imports of chlorinated chicken",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41731856/politics/uk/brexit/chlorinated-chicken",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Will the UK begin importing chlorine-washed chicken products following the end of the transition period on 31 December 2020, but on or before 30 June 2021?",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.06568897036358082,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.9343110296364192,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:09.893Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Washington, D.C. to become a state before 2022",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41736144/politics/us/51st-state/washington-d-c-to-become-a-state-by-2021",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Will Washington, D.C. become a state before 1 January 2022?",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-03-24 16:10:05 +00:00
"probability": 0.12472560367192177,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-03-24 16:10:05 +00:00
"probability": 0.8752743963280782,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:10.252Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Puerto Rico to become a state before 2022",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41736169/politics/us/51st-state/puerto-rico-to-become-a-state-before-2022",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Will Puerto Rico become a state before 1 January 2022?",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"probability": 0.16540927951716333,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"probability": 0.8345907204828368,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:10.622Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Next Fianna Fáil leader",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41761772/politics/europe/ireland/next-fianna-fail-leader-after-micheal-martin",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Who will be the next permanent Fianna Fáil leader after Micheál Martin? Contracts added on request.",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Jim O'Callaghan",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.40963460593150913,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael McGrath",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.33442569228248403,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dara Calleary",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.2559397017860069,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Thomas Byrne",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Niall Collins",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "James Lawless",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Paul McAuliffe",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Darragh O'Brien",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Norma Foley",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robert Troy",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John McGuinness",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jack Chambers",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "James Browne",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Anne Rabbitte",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Seán Ó Fearghail",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eamon O'Cuiv",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mary Butler",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:10.879Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Next Scottish independence referendum result (before 2022)",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41774246/politics/uk/scotland/result-of-indie-ref",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "For independence",
"probability": 0.5534059668058242,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Against independence",
"probability": 0.4465940331941757,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:11.108Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Will the SNP have an overall majority following the 2021 Scottish Election?",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41793318/politics/uk/2021-scottish-parliament-election/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-majority",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.5,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.5,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:11.493Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Next general election overall majority",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41817534/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/next-general-election-overall-majority",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party (if any) will win an overall majority at the next UK general election? Contracts added on request.",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "No overall majority",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.4122264290331517,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative majority",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.3498014590451565,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour majority",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.2338166035645027,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrat majority",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.00415550835718903,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:11.825Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Date of next Japanese general election",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41891949/politics/world/japan/date-of-next-general-election",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "When will the next Japanese general election take place?",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 22 October 2021",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.6065158529129182,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "22 October 2021 or later",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.39348414708708185,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:12.072Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Belarus to have a General Election in 2021",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41933267/politics/europe/belorussia/general-election",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.3476521573483189,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.6523478426516811,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:12.405Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Joe Biden to serve full term",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41935107/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-serve-full-term",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Will Joe Biden serve his first term as President of the United States in full? See market rules for more details.",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-04-04 17:52:59 +00:00
"probability": 0.4563725002487315,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-04-04 17:52:59 +00:00
"probability": 0.5436274997512686,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:12.757Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "2024 Democratic presidential nominee",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41936389/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-democratic-presidential-nominee",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Who will be the Democratic candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Joe Biden",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.3579995202686496,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kamala Harris",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.3807867594147278,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Elizabeth Warren",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.050011993283761096,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.08563204605420964,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michelle Obama",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.04437514991604702,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pete Buttigieg",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.05996641880546894,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gavin Newsom",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nina Turner",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrew Cuomo",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bernie Sanders",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.020028783881026625,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rashida Tlaib",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ayanna Pressley",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Amy Klobuchar",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eric Garcetti",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Cory Booker",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gretchen Whitmer",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Bloomberg",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.0011993283761093788,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:13.125Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "2024 Republican presidential nominee",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41936834/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-republican-presidential-nominee",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Who will be the Republican candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Donald Trump",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.29248387521390024,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump Jr.",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.021982361458470448,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Cotton",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.031328155850993814,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Pence",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.05265236277477952,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tucker Carlson",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.03659339212847176,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ted Cruz",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.03659339212847176,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nikki Haley",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.15664077925496908,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marco Rubio",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.02632618138738976,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Josh Hawley",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.03461892852441753,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ivanka Trump",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.08226931683559299,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Pompeo",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.05265236277477952,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Crenshaw",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Chris Christie",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eric Trump",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Larry Hogan",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rick Scott",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.01316309069369488,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tim Scott",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.01316309069369488,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
},
{
"name": "Ron DeSantis",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.14953271028037382,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:13.465Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "2024 US presidential winner",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41938283/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-presidential-winner",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Who will win the 2024 United States presidential election? Candidates added on request.",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Joe Biden",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.18172898724517608,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kamala Harris",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.21377957047857843,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.10901558922925977,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tucker Carlson",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.02474653875504197,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Cotton",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.010901558922925977,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Pence",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.03761037828409462,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump Jr.",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.06410116646680475,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ted Cruz",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.01984083723972528,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.07271339801591627,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michelle Obama",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nikki Haley",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.07031505505287255,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Elizabeth Warren",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gavin Newsom",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrew Cuomo",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marco Rubio",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nina Turner",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pete Buttigieg",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.05450779461462989,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bernie Sanders",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rashida Tlaib",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Josh Hawley",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Pompeo",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.027253897307314943,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Crenshaw",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ayanna Pressley",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Chris Christie",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ivanka Trump",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.05450779461462989,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Candace Owens",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Bloomberg",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ron DeSantis",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.05897743377302954,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:13.828Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "2021 London mayoral election second place",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41944560/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-2nd-place",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Who will finish in second place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request.",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Shaun Bailey",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.8967140570567743,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sadiq Khan",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.027681009321156202,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Siân Berry",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.01449957631108182,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Luisa Porritt",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brian Rose",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.05705677431503625,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mandu Reid",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.0009415309292910274,
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Laurence Fox",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.0031070520666603902,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:14.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Women's Equality Party to win a seat in the London Assembly",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41945749/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-women-s-equality-party-to-win-a-seat",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Will the Women's Equality Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.17355085039916696,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.826449149600833,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:14.511Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Party's Candidate to win the the 2024 US election",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41945845/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/party-to-win-the-presidential-election",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Contracts available on request.",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.4087618689480116,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democrat",
"probability": 0.5912381310519883,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:14.869Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "London Assembly: Labour majority",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41945873/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-labour-majority",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Will Labour win a majority on the London Assembly following the 2021 election?",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.41771041084962107,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5822895891503789,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:15.206Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "How many party leaders will still be in post at the end of 2021?",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41947872/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/party-leaders-at-end-of-2021",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "How many of the following four party leaders will still be in position on 31 December 2021: Boris Johnson, Keir Starmer, Ed Davey and Nicola Sturgeon?",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Fewer than 3",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.1297062881923911,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Exactly 3",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.33757145673171696,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Exactly 4",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.532722255075892,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:15.563Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "2021 Norwegian election: Most votes",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41955745/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-parliamentary-election",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian parliamentary election? (Norwegian names in brackets)",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative (Høyre)",
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"probability": 0.482994803967879,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour (Arbeiderpartiet)",
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"probability": 0.29822075263737996,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Centre (Senterpartiet)",
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"probability": 0.1312391749330814,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)",
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"probability": 0.043772634230829784,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)",
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"probability": 0.043772634230829784,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:15.911Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "2021 Norwegian election: Largest minor party",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41955751/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-election-largest-minor-party",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian election, excluding the Conservative and Labour parties? Parties added on request.",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Centre (Senterpartiet)",
"probability": 0.7432820245238717,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)",
"probability": 0.17392816766675365,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)",
"probability": 0.08278980780937473,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:16.274Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Brexit Party to control any council",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41967411/politics/uk/local-elections/brexit-party-to-control-any-council",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win a majority of seats on any council at the 2021 local elections?",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.050332192470304,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.949667807529696,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:16.631Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Brexit Party to win a seat in the London Assembly",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41967432/politics/uk/2021-elections/brexit-party-to-win-a-london-assembly-seat",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.12727939155136078,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.8727206084486392,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:16.979Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "London Assembly: Liberal Democrat seats",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41968727/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-liberal-democrat-seats",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "How many seats will the Liberal Democrats win in the 2021 London Assembly election?",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "0–2",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"probability": 0.8716389548693586,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "3 or more",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"probability": 0.12836104513064134,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:17.323Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Joe Biden's first international visit",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41980144/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-s-first-international-visit",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which of these countries will be visited by Joe Biden first in his role as President of the United States?",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "United Kingdom",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.6515410958904109,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republic of Ireland",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.1829337899543379,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "France",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.0380517503805175,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Germany",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.11605783866057838,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "China",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.0019025875190258753,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ukraine",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.009512937595129375,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:17.679Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Biden approval on day 100",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42015053/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-approval-on-day-100",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "What will Joe Biden's approval rating be on FiveThirtyEight on day 100 of his presidency?",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Under 45%",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.029573118463912224,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "45–49.9%",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.09523401337219269,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "50–54.9%",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.6749528544488256,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "55–59.9%",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.12986456368935367,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "60–64.9%",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.05717469569689696,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "65% or over",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.013200754328818788,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:17.919Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Matt Hancock to remain Health Secretary",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42015339/politics/uk/cabinet/matt-hancock-to-leave-post",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Will Matt Hancock be in position as Health Secretary on 1 July 2021?",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-03-29 22:28:30 +00:00
"probability": 0.763369616658779,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-03-29 22:28:30 +00:00
"probability": 0.236630383341221,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:18.264Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Gavin Williamson to remain Education Secretary",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42015372/politics/uk/cabinet/gavin-williamson-to-remain-education-secretary",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Will Gavin Williamson be in position as Education Secretary on 1 July 2021?",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.45030684625806966,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.5496931537419303,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:18.605Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "2021 West Yorkshire mayoral election winner",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42020574/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-yorkshire-mayoral-election",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Who will be elected mayor of West Yorkshire in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Tracy Brabin",
"probability": 0.8051441932969603,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative Party candidate",
"probability": 0.19485580670303976,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:18.967Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election winner",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42022415/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election? Contracts added on request.",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.8070128717265868,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.19298712827341322,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:19.318Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election: SNP vote share",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42025571/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election-snp-share",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "What percentage of the vote will the SNP candidate receive in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election?",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Under 45%",
"probability": 0.32353451266042316,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "45.0–49.9%",
"probability": 0.4250780437044745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "50% or over",
"probability": 0.2513874436351023,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:19.679Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Netanyahu to be Israeli PM on 1 July?",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42025628/politics/world/israel/will-netanyahu-be-israeli-pm-on-1-july",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel on 1 July 2021?",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.7403027859894294,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.2596972140105706,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:20.023Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "London elections: In-person voting",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42026863/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-in-person-voting",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Will in-person voting go ahead in the 2021 London elections, or will they be conducted by postal voting only?",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "In-person and postal voting",
Daily commit
2021-03-29 22:28:30 +00:00
"probability": 0.948190001915342,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Postal voting only",
Daily commit
2021-03-29 22:28:30 +00:00
"probability": 0.05180999808465811,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:20.271Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "London Elections to take place on 6th May 2021",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42031427/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-to-go-ahead",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.949080348499516,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.05091965150048402,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:20.511Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "$2,000 stimulus checks in Biden's first 100 days",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42037956/politics/us/joe-biden/2000-stimulus-in-biden-s-first-100-days",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Will the House and Senate agree to stimulus checks of $2,000 to American citizens (excluding the $600 already paid) in the first 100 days of Joe Biden's presidency?",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"probability": 0.03920031360250882,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"probability": 0.9607996863974911,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:20.746Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "New York City mayoral election 2021: Democratic candidate",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42042481/politics/us/2021-elections/new-york-city-mayoral-election-2021",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Who will win the Democratic primary to be the party's candidate for the 2021 New York City mayoral election? Candidates added on request.",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.5771822849807445,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eric Adams",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.17073170731707318,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Scott Stringer",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.07293003851091143,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Raymond McGuire",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.03650513478818999,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maya Wiley",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.09547496790757382,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Shaun Donovan",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dianne Morales",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.047175866495507056,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kathryn Garcia",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:21.101Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Trump to create new political party",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42047360/politics/us/donald-trump/trump-to-create-new-political-party",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Will Donald Trump create (or affiliate himself with) a new political party in 2021?",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"probability": 0.11602004826434008,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"probability": 0.8839799517356599,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:21.433Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Most seats following the German Federal Election 2021",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42048426/politics/europe/germany/german-federal-election",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "CDU + CSU",
Daily commit
2021-03-24 16:10:05 +00:00
"probability": 0.8558522783679142,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "SPD",
Daily commit
2021-03-24 16:10:05 +00:00
"probability": 0.055197061451404746,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Greens",
Daily commit
2021-03-24 16:10:05 +00:00
"probability": 0.0708825573314802,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "AfD",
Daily commit
2021-03-24 16:10:05 +00:00
"probability": 0.018068102849200837,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:21.782Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Donald Trump Jr. to run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42048465/politics/us/2021-elections/donald-trump-jr",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:22.142Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "2022 House of Representatives control",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42048472/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-house-of-representatives-control",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win the most seats in the 2022 House of Representatives elections?",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.3759190298863745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.6240809701136256,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:22.492Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "President Joe Biden to leave office in his first term via Impeachment, Resignation or the 25th Amendment",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42048883/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-leave-officeq",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.4636832704901766,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.5363167295098233,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:22.758Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "2022 Senate control",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42048961/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-senate-control",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will control the United States Senate following the 2022 midterm elections?",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
Daily update; this time with metaculus questions which haven't resolved yet
2021-03-08 22:17:08 +00:00
"probability": 0.44550898203592815,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
Daily update; this time with metaculus questions which haven't resolved yet
2021-03-08 22:17:08 +00:00
"probability": 0.5544910179640719,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:23.102Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Lisa Nandy to remain the Labour Party's Shadow Secretary of State for FCO until at least the 1st January 2022",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42048963/politics/uk/shadow-cabinet-ministers/lisa-nandy",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6005369127516779,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.39946308724832214,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:23.455Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "2022 House and Senate control",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42048965/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-house-and-senate-control",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Who will control the House and Senate following the 2022 midterm elections?",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "D House / D Senate",
"probability": 0.2841289413422582,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "D House / R Senate",
"probability": 0.12585872820151486,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "R House / D Senate",
"probability": 0.2230051083318654,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "R House / R Senate",
"probability": 0.36700722212436143,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:23.820Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Harriet Tubman to appear on the US $20 note in 2021",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42056981/politics/us/dollars/harriet-tubman",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-03-18 21:57:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.5351127473538886,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-03-18 21:57:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.4648872526461113,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:24.166Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Turnout of the Scottish Parliament Election in 2021 (FPTP figure)",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42058821/politics/uk/2021-scottish-parliament-election/scottish-parliament-election-2021-turnout",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "50% and below",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "51-53%",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "54-56%",
Daily commit
2021-03-18 21:57:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.47237606375793595,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "57%+",
Daily commit
2021-03-18 21:57:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.527623936242064,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:24.518Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Marjorie Taylor Greene to be expelled from Congress",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42064701/politics/us/marjorie-taylor-greene/marjorie-taylor-greene-to-be-expelled-from-congress",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Will US Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene be expelled from the House of Representatives by the end of April 2021?",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-04-05 14:39:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.17850181008075744,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-04-05 14:39:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.8214981899192425,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:24.870Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
{
"title": "Next G20 leader to leave",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42092242/politics/world/world-leaders/next-g20-leader-to-leave",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which of the listed leaders of G20 countries will be the next to leave their position?",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Yoshihide Suga (Japan)",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.453241290044224,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emmanuel Macron (France)",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.16341279257900984,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joe Biden (United States)",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Boris Johnson (United Kingdom)",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.15866681048430592,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil)",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.22467910689246035,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Justin Trudeau (Canada)",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa)",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Vladimir Putin (Russia)",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Xi Jinping (China)",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (Turkey)",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:25.115Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Year of next Canadian federal election",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42093782/politics/world/canada/year-of-next-canadian-general-election",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "When will the next Canadian federal election take place?",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "2021",
Daily update; this time with metaculus questions which haven't resolved yet
2021-03-08 22:17:08 +00:00
"probability": 0.4012149786925378,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2022",
Daily update; this time with metaculus questions which haven't resolved yet
2021-03-08 22:17:08 +00:00
"probability": 0.17109438752380088,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2023 or later",
Daily update; this time with metaculus questions which haven't resolved yet
2021-03-08 22:17:08 +00:00
"probability": 0.42769063378366123,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:25.457Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Alliance 4 Unity to win a seat in the Scottish Parliament",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42093783/politics/uk/2021-scottish-parliament-election/alliance-4-unity-to-win-a-seat-in-the-scottish-parliament",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Will Alliance 4 Unity win any seats in the Scottish Parliament following the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-04-05 14:39:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.1741546125107769,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-04-05 14:39:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.8258453874892232,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:25.689Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Brian Rose vote share",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42095181/politics/uk/2021-elections/brian-rose-vote-share",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "What share of the vote will Brian Rose receive in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 2.0%",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.3499863499863499,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2.0% or more",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.65001365001365,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:26.029Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Aberdeenshire West",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42096476/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeenshire-west",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win Aberdeenshire West at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.5419987175964093,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.4580012824035907,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:26.384Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Ayr",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42096491/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/ayr",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Ayr at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": 0.6379892345588906,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
"probability": 0.36201076544110933,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:26.744Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Dumbarton",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42096506/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/dumbarton",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Dumbarton at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.5894943159545276,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.4105056840454724,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:27.078Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Dumfriesshire",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42096507/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/dumfriesshire",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Dumfriesshire at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.5562312633832976,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.44376873661670235,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:27.415Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
},
{
"title": "East Lothian",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42096508/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/east-lothian",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of East Lothian at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.6032766669602748,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.32625737690478285,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.0704659561349423,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:27.642Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Eastwood",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42096509/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/eastwood",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Eastwood at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.4403120464441219,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.4403120464441219,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.11937590711175618,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:27.983Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Edinburgh Central",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42096534/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-central",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Central at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.6483971044467425,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.21867067782269436,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.0722948199680361,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Scottish Green",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.06063739776252703,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:28.360Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Edinburgh Southern",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42096558/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-southern",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Southern at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.5078098180569859,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.39006179196704427,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.10212838997596979,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:28.705Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Edinburgh Western",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42096565/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-western",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Western at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.4694173927900222,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrat",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.5305826072099777,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:28.945Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Galloway and West Dumfries",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42096580/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/galloway-and-west-dumfries",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Galloway and West Dumfries at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily commit
2021-03-28 12:02:57 +00:00
"probability": 0.46785866326096215,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-03-28 12:02:57 +00:00
"probability": 0.5321413367390379,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:29.285Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Glasgow Kelvin",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42096591/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/glasgow-kelvin",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Glasgow Kelvin at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": 0.7601773113804958,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0.07535733671069297,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Scottish Green",
"probability": 0.16446535190881129,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:29.635Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
},
{
"title": "North East Fife",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42096593/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/north-east-fife",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of North East Fife at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": 0.32412084246640616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrat",
"probability": 0.6758791575335938,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:30.001Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
},
{
"title": "2021 Senedd election: Most seats (w/o Labour)",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42101855/politics/uk/2021-welsh-senedd-election/2021-senedd-election-most-seats-w-o-labour",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party (excluding Labour) will win the most seats in the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Assembly) election? Contracts added on request.",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.8013886351178513,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.19861136488214873,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:30.351Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
},
{
"title": "2021 Senedd election: Labour majority",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42101863/politics/uk/2021-welsh-senedd-election/2021-senedd-election-labour-majority",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Will the Labour Party win a majority of seats (31 or more) at the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Assembly) election?",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.31186058609328937,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.6881394139067106,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:30.706Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Nicola Sturgeon exit date",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42102738/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/nicola-sturgeon-exit-date",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "When will Nicola Sturgeon leave her role as First Minister of Scotland?",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "2021",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.2177047867013819,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2022 or later",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.7822952132986181,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:30.942Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Aberdeen South and North Kincardine",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42104039/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeen-south-and-north-kincardine",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win Aberdeen South and North Kincardine at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"probability": 0.6441620333598093,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"probability": 0.35583796664019063,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:31.301Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Aberdeenshire East",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42104040/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeenshire-east",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win Aberdeenshire East at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily update; this time with metaculus questions which haven't resolved yet
2021-03-08 22:17:08 +00:00
"probability": 0.7619047619047619,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily update; this time with metaculus questions which haven't resolved yet
2021-03-08 22:17:08 +00:00
"probability": 0.23809523809523808,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:31.663Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Angus North and Mearns",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42104041/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/angus-north-and-mearns",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win Angus North and Mearns at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.683055775839281,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.316944224160719,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:32.013Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Banffshire and Buchan Coast",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42104042/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/banffshire-and-buchan-coast",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win Banffshire and Buchan Coast at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.8013541865344269,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.19864581346557314,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:32.364Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Edinburgh Pentlands",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42104043/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-pentlands",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win Edinburgh Pentlands at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.7736942156241513,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.22630578437584864,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:32.594Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Moray",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42104044/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/moray",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win Moray at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.694438927507448,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.3055610724925521,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:32.935Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Perthshire North",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42104069/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/perthshire-north",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win Perthshire North at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"probability": 0.6907772570519056,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"probability": 0.30922274294809443,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:33.290Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Perthshire South and Kinross-shire",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42104072/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/perthshire-south-and-kinross-shire",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win Perthshire South and Kinross-shire at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.6484943364950732,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.3515056635049268,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:33.526Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily update; this time with metaculus questions which haven't resolved yet
2021-03-08 22:17:08 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Referendum on monarchy by 2024",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42109254/politics/uk/monarchy/referendum-on-monarchy-by-2024",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Will the UK hold a referendum on the abolition of the monarchy by the end of 2024?",
Daily update; this time with metaculus questions which haven't resolved yet
2021-03-08 22:17:08 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit; also added WilliamHill and Ladbrokes, and started adding a skeleton for betfair
2021-03-13 16:43:11 +00:00
"probability": 0.1803263907672888,
Daily update; this time with metaculus questions which haven't resolved yet
2021-03-08 22:17:08 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit; also added WilliamHill and Ladbrokes, and started adding a skeleton for betfair
2021-03-13 16:43:11 +00:00
"probability": 0.8196736092327112,
Daily update; this time with metaculus questions which haven't resolved yet
2021-03-08 22:17:08 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:33.867Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Aberconwy",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42112669/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/aberconwy",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win Aberconwy at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-04 17:52:59 +00:00
"probability": 1,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
Daily commit
2021-04-04 17:52:59 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-04-04 17:52:59 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:34.024Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Blaenau Gwent",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42112671/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/blaenau-gwent",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win Blaenau Gwent at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.6274678111587982,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.3725321888412017,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:34.380Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Brecon and Radnorshire",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42112672/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/brecon-and-radnorshire",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win Brecon and Radnorshire at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Liberal Democrat",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:34.732Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Caerphilly",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42112687/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/caerphilly",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win Caerphilly at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.4452631578947368,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.417719298245614,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.13701754385964912,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:34.980Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Cardiff Central",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42112704/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/cardiff-central",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win Cardiff Central at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrat",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:35.211Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Cardiff North",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42112712/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/cardiff-north",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win Cardiff North at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 1,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:35.556Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Cardiff West",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42112713/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/cardiff-west",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win Cardiff West at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.6395882953385505,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.36041170466144945,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:35.917Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Ceredigion",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42112716/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/ceredigion",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win Ceredigion at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 1,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrat",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:36.159Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Clwyd South",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42112717/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/clwyd-south",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win Clwyd South at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:36.498Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Gower",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42112718/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/gower",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win Gower at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"probability": 1,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:36.843Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Llanelli",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42112719/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/llanelli",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win Llanelli at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"probability": 0.4931657646087515,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"probability": 0.5068342353912485,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:37.101Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Preseli Pembrokeshire",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42112720/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/preseli-pembrokeshire",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win Preseli Pembrokeshire at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.8103726178060112,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.1896273821939888,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:37.441Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Vale of Clwyd",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42112722/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/vale-of-clwyd",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win Vale of Clwyd at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:37.686Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Vale of Glamorgan",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42112723/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/vale-of-glamorgan",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win Vale of Glamorgan at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit; also added WilliamHill and Ladbrokes, and started adding a skeleton for betfair
2021-03-13 16:43:11 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit; also added WilliamHill and Ladbrokes, and started adding a skeleton for betfair
2021-03-13 16:43:11 +00:00
"probability": 1,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:38.023Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Wrexham",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42112724/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/wrexham",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win Wrexham at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.6225690890481065,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.3774309109518936,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:38.275Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-03-15 18:35:24 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Alyn and Deeside",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42117405/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/alyn-and-deeside",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win Alyn and Deeside at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
Daily commit
2021-03-15 18:35:24 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:38.613Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-03-15 18:35:24 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Delyn",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42117418/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/delyn",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win Delyn at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
Daily commit
2021-03-15 18:35:24 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Daily commit
2021-03-15 18:35:24 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 1,
Daily commit
2021-03-15 18:35:24 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:38.943Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-03-15 18:35:24 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Newport East",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42117438/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/newport-east",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win Newport East at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
Daily commit
2021-03-15 18:35:24 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:39.296Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-03-15 18:35:24 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Newport West",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42117439/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/newport-west",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win Newport West at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
Daily commit
2021-03-15 18:35:24 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-03-24 16:10:05 +00:00
"probability": 0.6619637750238322,
Daily commit
2021-03-15 18:35:24 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-03-24 16:10:05 +00:00
"probability": 0.33803622497616775,
Daily commit
2021-03-15 18:35:24 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:39.646Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-03-15 18:35:24 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Ynys Môn",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42117452/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/ynys-mon",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win Ynys Môn at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
Daily commit
2021-03-15 18:35:24 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"probability": 0.8871336313959265,
Daily commit
2021-03-15 18:35:24 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"probability": 0.11286636860407351,
Daily commit
2021-03-15 18:35:24 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:39.784Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-03-16 16:55:45 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Hartlepool by-election",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42118665/politics/uk/by-elections/hartlepool-by-election",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win the 2021 Hartlepool by-election? Other parties/candidates added on request.",
Daily commit
2021-03-16 16:55:45 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.424506387921022,
Daily commit
2021-03-16 16:55:45 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.5499419279907084,
Daily commit
2021-03-16 16:55:45 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Reform UK",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.01384049554781262,
Daily commit
2021-03-16 16:55:45 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.0009678668215253581,
Daily commit
2021-03-16 16:55:45 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
Daily commit
2021-03-29 22:28:30 +00:00
"name": "Northern Independence Party (Thelma Walker)",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.010743321718931475,
Daily commit
2021-03-16 16:55:45 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:40.153Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Joe Biden exit date",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42119912/politics/us/joe-biden/joe-biden-exit-date",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "When will Joe Biden cease to be President of the United States?",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "2021",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.156128024980484,
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2022",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2023",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2024",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2025 or later",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.8438719750195159,
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:40.502Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
},
{
"title": "2021 Scottish Parliament election: SNP seats",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42120331/politics/uk/2021-scottish-parliament-election/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-seats",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "How many seats will the SNP win in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "60 or fewer",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.2520079372578664,
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "61–64",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.20995936879901728,
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "65–68",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.20995936879901728,
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "69–72",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.19682509685344418,
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "73 or more",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.13124822829065483,
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:40.860Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
},
{
"title": "London Assembly: Bexley & Bromley",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42128456/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-bexley-bromley",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win the London Assembly constituency of Bexley & Bromley at the 2021 London Assembly election?",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
"probability": 0.862759307908325,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0.13724069209167497,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:41.215Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
},
{
"title": "London Assembly: Croydon & Sutton",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42128462/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-croydon-sutton",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win the London Assembly constituency of Croydon & Sutton at the 2021 London Assembly election?",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-05 14:39:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.3622957353527302,
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-04-05 14:39:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.6377042646472698,
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:41.443Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
},
{
"title": "London Assembly: Havering & Redbridge",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42128464/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-havering-redbridge",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win the London Assembly constituency of Havering & Redbridge at the 2021 London Assembly election?",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-03-24 16:10:05 +00:00
"probability": 1,
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-03-24 16:10:05 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:41.787Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
},
{
"title": "London Assembly: South West",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42128713/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-south-west",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win the London Assembly constituency of South West at the 2021 London Assembly election?",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.5772065274609581,
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.1949464818389191,
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.22784699070012282,
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:42.131Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
},
{
"title": "London Assembly: West Central",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42128714/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-west-central",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win the London Assembly constituency of West Central at the 2021 London Assembly election?",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:42.491Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
},
{
"title": "2021 London mayoral election third place",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42128721/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-3rd-place",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Who will finish in third place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request.",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Siân Berry",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.567551737602499,
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Luisa Porritt",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.35630613041780557,
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Shaun Bailey",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.017766497461928935,
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sadiq Khan",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Peter Gammons",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mandu Reid",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brian Rose",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.044416243654822336,
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Laurence Fox",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.013959390862944163,
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:42.729Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-03-24 16:10:05 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Year of next Israeli legislative election",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42129804/politics/world/israel/year-of-next-israeli-legislative-election",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "When will the next Israeli legislative election be held (following the election on 23 March 2021)?",
Daily commit
2021-03-24 16:10:05 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "2021",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.4505287744112113,
Daily commit
2021-03-24 16:10:05 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2022",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.2333744241873743,
Daily commit
2021-03-24 16:10:05 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2023",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.12242911827677935,
Daily commit
2021-03-24 16:10:05 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2024 or later",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.19366768312463506,
Daily commit
2021-03-24 16:10:05 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:42.988Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Liverpool City Council control",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42130192/politics/uk/local-elections/liverpool-city-council-control",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will control Liverpool City Council following the May 2021 elections? Parties added on request.",
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "No overall control",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.16450390908358184,
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.7261223502861288,
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Green",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.05561376642218103,
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Northern Independence Party",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.053759974208108324,
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:43.404Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Airdrie and Shotts by-election",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42130309/politics/uk/by-elections/airdrie-and-shotts-by-election",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win the 2021 Airdrie and Shotts by-election? Other parties/candidates added on request.",
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily commit
2021-04-05 14:39:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.8322297955209348,
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-04-05 14:39:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.139143135345667,
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-05 14:39:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.02862706913339825,
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:43.754Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Conservative national equivalent vote share",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42131417/politics/uk/local-elections/conservative-national-equivalent-vote-share",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "What will the Conservative Party's national equivalent vote share be at the 2021 local elections?",
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "34% or under",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.18649083306529432,
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "35%",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.1398520424573818,
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "36%",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.15316822129302027,
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "37%",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.1398520424573818,
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "38% or over",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.3806368607269219,
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:44.089Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Labour national equivalent vote share",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42131418/politics/uk/local-elections/labour-national-equivalent-vote-share",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "What will the Labour Party's national equivalent vote share be at the 2021 local elections?",
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "30% or under",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"probability": 0.2,
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "31%",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"probability": 0.2,
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "32%",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"probability": 0.2,
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "33%",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"probability": 0.2,
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "34% or over",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"probability": 0.2,
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:44.348Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Alba Party to win a Scottish Parliament seat",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42133028/politics/uk/2021-scottish-parliament-election/alba-party-to-win-a-scottish-parliament-seat",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Will the Alba Party win any seats in the Scottish Parliament in the May 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.6593765968318855,
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.34062340316811446,
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:44.688Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Rhondda",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42140941/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/rhondda",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win Rhondda at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:45.027Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Monmouth",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42140942/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/monmouth",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win Monmouth at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nick Ramsay (Independent)",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:45.371Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Bridgend",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42140946/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/bridgend",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win Bridgend at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:45.724Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Hartlepool by-election: Thelma Walker vote share",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42140991/politics/uk/by-elections/hartlepool-by-election-thelma-walker-vote-share",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "What share of the vote will Thelma Walker receive in the Hartlepool by-election?",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Under 5.0%",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.6766759776536313,
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "5.0–9.9%",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.1745810055865922,
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "10.0–19.9%",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.10151885474860337,
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "20.0% or over",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.04722416201117319,
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:46.078Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Head-to-head: Berry vs Porritt",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42141008/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-head-to-heads",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which London mayoral candidate will receive more votes: Siân Berry or Luisa Porritt?",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Siân Berry",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.689492119089317,
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Luisa Porritt",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.31050788091068304,
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:46.328Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Head-to-head: Fox vs Fosh",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42141008/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-head-to-heads",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which London mayoral candidate will receive more votes: Laurence Fox or Max Fosh?",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Laurence Fox",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.9265658747300216,
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Max Fosh",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.07343412526997839,
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:46.684Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Head-to-head: Gammons vs Kurten",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42141008/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-head-to-heads",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which London mayoral candidate will receive more votes: Peter Gammons or David Kurten?",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Peter Gammons",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.8196736092327112,
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "David Kurten",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.1803263907672888,
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:47.011Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Head-to-head: Binface vs P. Corbyn",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42141008/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-head-to-heads",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which London mayoral candidate will receive more votes: Count Binface or Piers Corbyn?",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "Count Binface",
"probability": 0.2570613409415121,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Piers Corbyn",
"probability": 0.7429386590584879,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:47.346Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Dunfermline",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142033/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/dunfermline",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Dunfermline at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:47.692Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Aberdeen Central",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142039/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeen-central",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Aberdeen Central at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.760963026655202,
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.11616509028374891,
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.12287188306104899,
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:47.929Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Cowdenbeath",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142080/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/cowdenbeath",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win Cowdenbeath at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:48.278Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Rutherglen",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142100/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/rutherglen",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Rutherglen at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.7266984068851859,
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"probability": 0.27330159311481417,
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:48.635Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Coatbridge and Chryston",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142104/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/coatbridge-and-chryston",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Coatbridge and Chryston at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:48.982Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Edinburgh Eastern",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142127/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-eastern",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Eastern at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:49.329Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Edinburgh Northern and Leith",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142137/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-northern",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Northern and Leith at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Scottish Green",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:49.694Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Glasgow Southside",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142148/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/glasgow-southside",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Glasgow Southside at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:50.031Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Caithness, Sutherland and Ross",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142152/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/caithness-sutherland-and-ross",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Caithness, Sutherland and Ross at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:50.386Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Argyll and Bute",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142156/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/argyll-and-bute",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Argyll and Bute at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": 0.8695945945945945,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
"probability": 0.1304054054054054,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:50.716Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142158/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/skye-lochaber-and-badenoch",
"platform": "Smarkets",
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
New structure, with a history
2021-04-08 08:08:03 +00:00
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:51.069Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
Added smarkets
2021-02-16 14:18:23 +00:00
}
]
Reference in New Issue Copy Permalink