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300
data/csetforetell-questions.json
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@ -16,9 +16,12 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "80",
"numforecasters": "70",
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:10:19.356Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "84",
"numforecasters": "73",
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021?",
@ -37,9 +40,12 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "46",
"numforecasters": "42",
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:10:22.002Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "52",
"numforecasters": "46",
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work?",
@ -73,9 +79,12 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "96",
"numforecasters": "81",
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:10:25.031Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "96",
"numforecasters": "81",
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Will Hu Chunhua be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?",
@ -94,9 +103,12 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "26",
"numforecasters": "23",
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:10:31.242Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "26",
"numforecasters": "23",
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?",
@ -115,9 +127,12 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "22",
"numforecasters": "18",
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:10:33.658Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "22",
"numforecasters": "18",
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?",
@ -136,9 +151,12 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "19",
"numforecasters": "17",
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:10:35.988Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "19",
"numforecasters": "17",
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the \"Big 5\" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?",
@ -148,33 +166,36 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 7,500",
"probability": 0.04190000000000001,
"probability": 0.0418,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive",
"probability": 0.12890000000000001,
"probability": 0.1286,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500",
"probability": 0.3059,
"probability": 0.3054,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500",
"probability": 0.3056,
"probability": 0.30820000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 13,500",
"probability": 0.21780000000000002,
"probability": 0.2161,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "48",
"numforecasters": "39",
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:10:39.586Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "49",
"numforecasters": "40",
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
@ -208,9 +229,12 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "88",
"numforecasters": "72",
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:10:42.927Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "88",
"numforecasters": "72",
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?",
@ -244,9 +268,12 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "35",
"numforecasters": "29",
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:10:45.859Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "35",
"numforecasters": "29",
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?",
@ -280,9 +307,12 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "20",
"numforecasters": "18",
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:10:49.440Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "20",
"numforecasters": "18",
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?",
@ -316,9 +346,12 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "83",
"numforecasters": "71",
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:10:59.224Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "83",
"numforecasters": "71",
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
@ -337,9 +370,12 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "142",
"numforecasters": "109",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:11:02.004Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "144",
"numforecasters": "109",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?",
@ -358,9 +394,12 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "193",
"numforecasters": "135",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:11:04.871Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "194",
"numforecasters": "135",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
@ -394,9 +433,12 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "57",
"numforecasters": "46",
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:11:07.783Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "57",
"numforecasters": "46",
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
@ -430,9 +472,12 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "58",
"numforecasters": "44",
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:11:11.361Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "58",
"numforecasters": "44",
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?",
@ -442,17 +487,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than -0.25",
"probability": 0.1937,
"probability": 0.19329999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive",
"probability": 0.3191,
"probability": 0.3189,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25",
"probability": 0.2991,
"probability": 0.29960000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -466,9 +511,12 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "149",
"numforecasters": "111",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:11:14.661Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "150",
"numforecasters": "111",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
@ -502,9 +550,12 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "115",
"numforecasters": "92",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:11:18.309Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "115",
"numforecasters": "92",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
@ -538,9 +589,12 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "143",
"numforecasters": "114",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:11:21.887Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "144",
"numforecasters": "114",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
@ -574,9 +628,12 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "72",
"numforecasters": "44",
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:11:24.649Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "72",
"numforecasters": "44",
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?",
@ -586,22 +643,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 800",
"probability": 0.12869999999999998,
"probability": 0.1282,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 800 and 4,000",
"probability": 0.45649999999999996,
"probability": 0.4506,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000",
"probability": 0.2862,
"probability": 0.2904,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000",
"probability": 0.099,
"probability": 0.1013,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -610,9 +667,12 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "156",
"numforecasters": "103",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:11:27.621Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "157",
"numforecasters": "103",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?",
@ -646,9 +706,12 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "67",
"numforecasters": "55",
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:11:38.064Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "67",
"numforecasters": "55",
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?",
@ -658,18 +721,21 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.44,
"probability": 0.43,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.56,
"probability": 0.57,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "152",
"numforecasters": "90",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:11:41.560Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "153",
"numforecasters": "90",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?",
@ -679,33 +745,36 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 20%",
"probability": 0.0929,
"probability": 0.08800000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 20% and 25%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.18170000000000003,
"probability": 0.1698,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%",
"probability": 0.3617,
"probability": 0.3705,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%",
"probability": 0.24850000000000003,
"probability": 0.25780000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 35%",
"probability": 0.1151,
"probability": 0.1139,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "74",
"numforecasters": "59",
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:11:44.617Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "75",
"numforecasters": "59",
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?",
@ -724,9 +793,12 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "357",
"numforecasters": "196",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:11:47.308Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "362",
"numforecasters": "198",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?",
@ -755,9 +827,12 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "249",
"numforecasters": "137",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:11:49.981Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "249",
"numforecasters": "137",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?",
@ -767,33 +842,36 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 59%",
"probability": 0.11810000000000001,
"probability": 0.12369999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 59% and 66%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1775,
"probability": 0.1791,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%",
"probability": 0.2675,
"probability": 0.2658,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%",
"probability": 0.29600000000000004,
"probability": 0.2939,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 80%",
"probability": 0.1409,
"probability": 0.1376,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "237",
"numforecasters": "169",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:11:53.304Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "239",
"numforecasters": "169",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?",
@ -812,9 +890,12 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "201",
"numforecasters": "133",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:11:56.342Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "201",
"numforecasters": "133",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?",
@ -848,8 +929,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "221",
"numforecasters": "140",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:11:59.367Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "221",
"numforecasters": "140",
"stars": 3
}
}
]

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data/elicit-questions.json
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data/estimize-questions.json
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data/fantasyscotus-questions.json
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@ -3,21 +3,24 @@
"title": "In United States v. Collins, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-collins/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "73.96% (71 out of 96) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"description": "74.23% (72 out of 97) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.7395833333333334,
"probability": 0.7422680412371134,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.26041666666666663,
"probability": 0.25773195876288657,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 96,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:11.775Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 97,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Jones v. Mississippi, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -36,8 +39,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 66,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:12.367Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 66,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Borden v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -56,8 +62,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 52,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:12.893Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 52,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -76,8 +85,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 87,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:13.443Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 87,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Niz-Chavez v. Barr, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -96,8 +108,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 50,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:14.003Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 50,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In California v. Texas (Standing), the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -116,8 +131,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 61,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:14.536Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 61,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Texas v. California (Severability), the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -136,8 +154,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 63,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:15.091Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 63,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Van Buren v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -156,8 +177,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 57,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:15.624Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 57,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Nestle USA, Inc. v. Doe I, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -176,8 +200,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 41,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:16.053Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 41,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Cargill, Inc. v. Doe I, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -196,8 +223,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 38,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:16.481Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 38,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In CIC Services, LLC v. Internal Revenue Service, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -216,8 +246,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 42,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:16.910Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 42,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Edwards v. Vannoy, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -236,8 +269,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 50,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:17.453Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 50,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Henry Schein Inc. v. Archer, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -256,8 +292,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 32,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:17.878Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 32,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Collins v. Mnuchin, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -276,8 +315,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 33,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:18.304Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 33,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Mnuchin v. Collins, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -296,8 +338,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 33,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:18.732Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 33,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Pham v. Guzman Chavez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -316,8 +361,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 32,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:19.158Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 32,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In AMG Capital Management, LLC v. FTC, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -336,8 +384,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 31,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:19.581Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 31,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In BP P.L.C. v. Mayor and City Council of Baltimore, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -356,8 +407,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 36,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:20.009Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 36,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -376,14 +430,17 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 10,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:20.425Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 10,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In United States v. Cooley, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-cooley/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "0.00% (0 out of 14) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"description": "0.00% (0 out of 15) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -396,8 +453,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 14,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:20.842Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 15,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Caniglia v. Strom, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -416,28 +476,34 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 13,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:21.276Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 13,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Goldman Sachs Group Inc. v. Arkansas Teacher Retirement System, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/goldman-sachs-group-inc-v-arkansas-teacher-retirement-system/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "77.78% (7 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"description": "70.00% (7 out of 10) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.7777777777777778,
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.2222222222222222,
"probability": 0.30000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 9,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:21.692Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 10,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In TransUnion LLC v. Ramirez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -456,48 +522,57 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 9,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:22.103Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 9,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In National Collegiate Athletic Association v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "81.82% (9 out of 11) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"description": "84.62% (11 out of 13) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.8181818181818182,
"probability": 0.8461538461538461,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.18181818181818177,
"probability": 0.15384615384615385,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 11,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:22.521Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 13,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In American Athletic Conference v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/american-athletic-conference-v-alston/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "50.00% (4 out of 8) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"description": "55.56% (5 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"probability": 0.5555555555555556,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
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"probability": 0.4444444444444444,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 8,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:22.934Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 9,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Yellen v. Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -516,8 +591,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:23.342Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Sanchez v. Mayorkas, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -536,8 +614,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 5,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:23.755Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 5,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Alaska Native Village Corporation Association v. Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -556,8 +637,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:24.167Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In United States v. Gary, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -576,8 +660,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 2,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:24.576Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 2,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Greer v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -596,8 +683,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 2,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:24.988Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 2,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Minerva Surgical Inc. v. Hologic Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -616,8 +706,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 2,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:25.399Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 2,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In City of San Antonio, Texas v. Hotels.com, L.P., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -636,8 +729,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 2,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:25.807Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 2,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Guam v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -656,8 +752,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:26.216Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Thomas More Law Center v. Becerra, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -676,8 +775,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 2,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:26.624Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 2,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Americans for Prosperity Foundation v. Becerra, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -696,8 +798,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 2,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:27.034Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 2,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In HollyFrontier Cheyenne Refining, LLC v. Renewable Fuels Association, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -716,8 +821,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 2,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:27.446Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 2,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In United States v. Palomar-Santiago, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -736,14 +844,17 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 2,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:27.858Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 2,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In PennEast Pipeline Co. v. New Jersey, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/penneast-pipeline-co-v-new-jersey/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"description": "0.00% (0 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -756,8 +867,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 2,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:28.270Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Mahanoy Area School District v. B.L., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -776,14 +890,17 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:28.678Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Department of Justice v. House Committee on the Judiciary, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/department-of-justice-v-house-committee-on-the-judiciary/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "0.00% (0 out of 8) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"description": "0.00% (0 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -796,8 +913,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 8,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:29.095Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 9,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In United States v. Arthrex Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -816,8 +936,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 17,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:29.510Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 17,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Carr v. Saul, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -836,8 +959,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 18,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:29.927Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 18,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Smith & Nephew Inc. v. Arthrex Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -856,8 +982,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 16,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:30.339Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 16,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Arthrex Inc. v. Smith & Nephew Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -876,8 +1005,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 14,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:30.756Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 14,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Davis v. Saul, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -896,28 +1028,34 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 14,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:31.173Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 14,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Lange v. California, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/lange-v-california/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "36.11% (13 out of 36) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"description": "35.14% (13 out of 37) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.3611111111111111,
"probability": 0.35135135135135137,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6388888888888888,
"probability": 0.6486486486486487,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 36,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:31.598Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 37,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Trump v. Sierra Club, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -936,8 +1074,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 15,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:32.013Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 15,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Barr v. Dai, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -956,8 +1097,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 17,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:32.431Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 17,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In National Association of Broadcasters v. Prometheus Radio Project, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -976,8 +1120,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 12,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:32.848Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 12,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Barr v. Alcaraz-Enriquez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -996,8 +1143,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 15,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:33.261Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 15,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Wolf v. Innovation Law Lab, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -1016,8 +1166,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 4,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:33.669Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 4,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Brnovich v. Democratic National Committee, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -1036,8 +1189,11 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 22,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:34.086Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 22,
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "In Arizona Republican Party v. Democratic National Committee, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
@ -1056,7 +1212,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 28,
"stars": 2
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:34.509Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 28,
"stars": 2
}
}
]

84
data/goodjudgment-questions.json
View File

@ -12,12 +12,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Yes, to $10.00 or more, but less than $15.00",
"probability": 0.48,
"probability": 0.47,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yes, to $15.00 or more",
"probability": 0.05,
"probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -26,7 +26,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 4
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:36.212Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4
}
},
{
"title": "What percentage of global light vehicle sales in 2021 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)?</a>",
@ -36,7 +39,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 4.0%",
"probability": 0.01,
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -46,12 +49,12 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%",
"probability": 0.26,
"probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.52,
"probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -60,7 +63,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 4
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:36.212Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4
}
},
{
"title": "When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 1.5 billion worldwide?</a>",
@ -94,7 +100,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 4
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:36.212Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4
}
},
{
"title": "When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?</a>",
@ -109,17 +118,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021",
"probability": 0.91,
"probability": 0.87,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021",
"probability": 0.09,
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
"probability": 0,
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -128,7 +137,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 4
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:36.212Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4
}
},
{
"title": "When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?</a>",
@ -162,7 +174,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 4
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:36.212Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4
}
},
{
"title": "In 2021, what percentage of corporate board seats at S&amp;P 500 firms will be held by racial minorities, according to The Conference Board?</a>",
@ -172,12 +187,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 23%",
"probability": 0.27,
"probability": 0.32,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 23% and 27%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.71,
"probability": 0.66,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -186,7 +201,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 4
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:37.840Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4
}
},
{
"title": "What will be the world's GDP in 2021 relative to the world's GDP in 2019, according to the IMF?</a>",
@ -206,21 +224,24 @@
},
{
"name": "Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% ",
"probability": 0.07,
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.79,
"probability": 0.77,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher by more than 4%",
"probability": 0.13,
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 4
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:37.840Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4
}
},
{
"title": "What will be the value of sustainable funds' estimated annual flows in the U.S. in 2021 relative to 2020, according to Morningstar?</a>",
@ -235,16 +256,19 @@
},
{
"name": "Higher by between 0% and 100%",
"probability": 0.38,
"probability": 0.39,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher by more than 100%",
"probability": 0.61,
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 4
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:37.840Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4
}
},
{
"title": "When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?</a>",
@ -278,7 +302,10 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 4
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:37.840Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4
}
},
{
"title": "As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who \"worked from home exclusively\"?</a>",
@ -293,12 +320,12 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 10% but less than 20%",
"probability": 0.74,
"probability": 0.72,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.24,
"probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -307,6 +334,9 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 4
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:12:37.840Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 4
}
}
]

1680
data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json
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313
data/hypermind-questions.json
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@ -3,6 +3,7 @@
"title": "In 2021, will Donald Trump be barred from holding future elected office in the USA?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -15,13 +16,16 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:50.676Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Will Kamala Harris be the first woman to become president of the United States?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "This question will settle when a woman becomes president of the United States of America.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -34,13 +38,16 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This question will settle when a woman becomes president of the United States of America.",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:50.677Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will the USA earn more medals than they ever did during Obama's presidency (121)?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "While Barack Obama was president, the United States won: - 121 medals in 2016 - 104 medals in 2012 - 112 medals in 2008 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are canceled in 2021, this question will be resolved according to the medals obtained at the next Olympics.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes, more than 121",
@ -53,13 +60,16 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "While Barack Obama was president, the United States won: - 121 medals in 2016 - 104 medals in 2012 - 112 medals in 2008 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are canceled in 2021, this question will be resolved according to the medals obtained at the next Olympics.",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:50.677Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "In 2021, will Joe Biden invoke the Insurrection Act?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "The Insurrection Act is a United States federal law that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion. See: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -72,77 +82,83 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The Insurrection Act is a United States federal law that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion. See: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) ",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:50.677Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Who will be elected president of France in 2022?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Xavier Bertrand",
"probability": 0.038461538461538464,
"probability": 0.03773584905660377,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pierre de Villiers",
"probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Anne Hidalgo",
"probability": 0.028846153846153844,
"probability": 0.028301886792452827,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yannick Jadot",
"probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marine Le Pen",
"probability": 0.1346153846153846,
"probability": 0.14150943396226415,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emmanuel Macron",
"probability": 0.548076923076923,
"probability": 0.5471698113207547,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Valérie Pécresse",
"probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eric Piolle",
"probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Another woman",
"probability": 0.05769230769230769,
"probability": 0.056603773584905655,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Another man",
"probability": 0.14423076923076925,
"probability": 0.14150943396226415,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:53.505Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, \"Le Pen\" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Macron and Le Pen",
@ -165,13 +181,16 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, \"Le Pen\" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen.",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:53.505Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "On April 1, 2021, will Frédérique Vidal still be minister of higher education, research and innovation in the French government?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -184,13 +203,16 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:53.506Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "In France, when will the first round of the regional elections take place?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "In June, 2021 (as planned)",
@ -208,13 +230,16 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:53.506Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will Japan or France earn more medals?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are cancelled, or if they take place elsewhere than in Japan, the shares will be paid out at the following prices: France = 23 H Japan = 74 H Same = 3 H",
"options": [
{
"name": "France",
@ -232,13 +257,16 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are cancelled, or if they take place elsewhere than in Japan, the shares will be paid out at the following prices: France = 23 H Japan = 74 H Same = 3 H",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:53.506Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "In France, when will the 7 day average of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 fall back below 5,000?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World)",
"options": [
{
"name": "Nov-Dec, 2020",
@ -262,71 +290,77 @@
},
{
"name": "Maybe later",
"probability": 0.08,
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "April 2021",
"probability": 0.019801980198019802,
"probability": 0.010101010101010102,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "May 2021",
"probability": 0.15841584158415842,
"probability": 0.16161616161616163,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "June 2021",
"probability": 0.2178217821782178,
"probability": 0.22222222222222224,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maybe after June 2021",
"probability": 0.6039603960396039,
"probability": 0.6060606060606061,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA&region=World)",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:53.506Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "In France, when will at least 30M people have received at least one dose of Covid-19 vaccine?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "This question will be settled according to the figures published by [Covidtracker](https://covidtracker.fr/vaccintracker/)",
"options": [
{
"name": "In May or earlier",
"probability": 0.010204081632653062,
"probability": 0.010101010101010102,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in June (government goal)",
"probability": 0.653061224489796,
"probability": 0.6565656565656566,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in July",
"probability": 0.20408163265306123,
"probability": 0.21212121212121215,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in August",
"probability": 0.06122448979591837,
"probability": 0.06060606060606061,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maybe later",
"probability": 0.07142857142857144,
"probability": 0.06060606060606061,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This question will be settled according to the figures published by [Covidtracker](https://covidtracker.fr/vaccintracker/)",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:53.506Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Will there be a deadly confrontation between Moroccan and Algerian armed forces in 2021?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "To be considered \"deadly\", the military confrontation - Including indirect clashes via drones, missiles, cyber, etc. - must cause at least one death among military personnel on either side. ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -339,13 +373,16 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "To be considered \"deadly\", the military confrontation - Including indirect clashes via drones, missiles, cyber, etc. - must cause at least one death among military personnel on either side. ",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:57.366Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Following the next parliamentary elections win Morocco, who will succeed Saad-Eddine El Othmani as prime minister?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "Parliamentary elections are scheduled in September 2021. The PJD (Justice and Development Party) has been in power for the last ten years. Shall the party be renamed or splinter before the elections, any personality issued for its ranks before the renaming or split shall still be considered \"from PJD\".",
"options": [
{
"name": "Saad-Eddine El Othmani",
@ -368,13 +405,16 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Parliamentary elections are scheduled in September 2021. The PJD (Justice and Development Party) has been in power for the last ten years. Shall the party be renamed or splinter before the elections, any personality issued for its ranks before the renaming or split shall still be considered \"from PJD\".",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:57.366Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "In the Ivory Coast, how many seats will the RHDP party of president Ouattara win in the March 2021 parliamentary elections?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "The presidential party RHDP currently occupies 148 seats in the 255 seats assembly. An absolute majority requires 128 seats.",
"options": [
{
"name": "> 148 (more than currently)",
@ -392,13 +432,16 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The presidential party RHDP currently occupies 148 seats in the 255 seats assembly. An absolute majority requires 128 seats.",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:57.366Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "In 2021, will Faustin-Archange Touadéra lose power in the Central African Republic?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Touadéra, president of the Central African Republic, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Touadéra has lost power before the end of the year (local time).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -411,32 +454,38 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Touadéra, president of the Central African Republic, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Touadéra has lost power before the end of the year (local time).",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:57.366Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "In 2021, will Abdelmadjid Tebboune lose power in Algeria?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Tebboune, president of Algeria, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Tebboune has lost power before the end of the year (local time).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4296875,
"probability": 0.4251968503937008,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5703125,
"probability": 0.5748031496062993,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the other will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Tebboune, president of Algeria, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Tebboune has lost power before the end of the year (local time).",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:57.367Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "In Congo, who will win the (March) 2021 presidential election?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "A presidential election is planned on march 21, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Denis Sassou Nguesso",
@ -464,13 +513,16 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "A presidential election is planned on march 21, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:57.367Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "In Chad, who will win the (April) 2021 presidential election?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "A presidential election is planned on April 11, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Idriss Déby Itno",
@ -503,47 +555,53 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "A presidential election is planned on April 11, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:57.367Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "In Somalia, who will win the 2021 presidential election? ",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "A presidential election is planned for February 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question. 27 Feb 2021 - Somalian president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, whose term expired in February, has delayed the election and hasn't set any date for it. Violent clashes between the government and opposition forces have erupted...",
"options": [
{
"name": "Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed",
"probability": 0.9021739130434783,
"probability": 0.8924731182795698,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Abshir Aden Ferro",
"probability": 0.010869565217391304,
"probability": 0.01075268817204301,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sharif Sheikh Ahmed",
"probability": 0.010869565217391304,
"probability": 0.01075268817204301,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Someone else",
"probability": 0.010869565217391304,
"probability": 0.01075268817204301,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No election in 2021",
"probability": 0.06521739130434782,
"probability": 0.07526881720430106,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "A presidential election is planned for February 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question. 27 Feb 2021 - Somalian president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, whose term expired in February, has delayed the election and hasn't set any date for it. Violent clashes between the government and opposition forces have erupted...",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:20:57.370Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "When will worldwide commercial air traffic rise back above 100,000 flights per day?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "This question will be settled according to the data published by [Flightradar24.com](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) in the \"Number of commercial flights...\" chart.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Q1, 2021 (or before)",
@ -571,13 +629,16 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This question will be settled according to the data published by [Flightradar24.com](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) in the \"Number of commercial flights...\" chart.",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:21:00.320Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "In 2021, who will succeed Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister of Israel?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Parliamentary elections are scheduled in March 2021.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Benjamin Netanyahu",
@ -595,13 +656,16 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Parliamentary elections are scheduled in March 2021.",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:21:00.320Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "In 2021, how much will the arctic sea ice shrink?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the others will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Follow daily updates of the arctic sea ice shrinkage with <a target=_new href='http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/'>this link</a>",
"options": [
{
"name": "Worse than the 2012 record",
@ -619,13 +683,16 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100&Hopf; while the others will be worthless (0&Hopf;). Follow daily updates of the arctic sea ice shrinkage with <a target=_new href='http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/'>this link</a>",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:21:00.321Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Marcus Söder (CSU)",
@ -658,13 +725,16 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September.",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:21:00.321Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "In 2021, when will North Korea first launch a ballistic missile?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "Only MRBM, IRBM, LRICBM and FRICBM will be considered, excluding SRBM short-range missiles.",
"options": [
{
"name": "in Q1, 2021",
@ -692,42 +762,48 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Only MRBM, IRBM, LRICBM and FRICBM will be considered, excluding SRBM short-range missiles.",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:21:00.321Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "At the end of April, which country will have the MOST stringent government policies against Covid-19?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ",
"options": [
{
"name": "USA",
"probability": 0.00970873786407767,
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "France",
"probability": 0.6990291262135923,
"probability": 0.6176470588235294,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Germany",
"probability": 0.2621359223300971,
"probability": 0.3431372549019608,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "United Kingdom",
"probability": 0.02912621359223301,
"probability": 0.02941176470588235,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:21:03.434Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "At the end of April, which country will have the LEAST stringent government policies against Covid-19?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ",
"options": [
{
"name": "USA",
@ -750,13 +826,16 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:21:03.434Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Which threshold will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit first?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the Dow Jones index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.",
"options": [
{
"name": "≥ 32,000",
@ -769,13 +848,16 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the Dow Jones index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:21:10.166Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Which threshold will the French index CAC 40 hit first?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the CAC 40 index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.",
"options": [
{
"name": "≥ 6,000",
@ -788,13 +870,16 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the CAC 40 index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:21:10.166Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Will the new Bond film \"No Time to Die\" be released in 2021?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "On January 22, MGM pushed back the film's release to October 8, 2021... 23/01/21: It doesn't matter how the movie is released - online or in theaters - as long as it is via a distribution channel approved by MGM.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -807,27 +892,32 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "On January 22, MGM pushed back the film's release to October 8, 2021... 23/01/21: It doesn't matter how the movie is released - online or in theaters - as long as it is via a distribution channel approved by MGM.",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:21:10.166Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "In 2021, will the Olympic Games take place?",
"url": "https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "The Olympics Games are currently scheduled to start in Japan in July 2021... This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if the Olympic Games take place anywhere at anytime in 2021.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.9313725490196079,
"probability": 0.9504950495049505,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.06862745098039215,
"probability": 0.04950495049504951,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The Olympics Games are currently scheduled to start in Japan in July 2021... This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if the Olympic Games take place anywhere at anytime in 2021.",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T22:21:10.166Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q1 2021?",
@ -835,8 +925,9 @@
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "This question compares 2021:Q1 to 2020:Q1. It should be read as: “What will be the Year-over-year growth rate in Q1 2021?\"\nThe 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q1, which will be published in the spring of 2021.\nAll of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1:\n[https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&amp;step=2#reqid=19&amp;step=2&amp;isuri=1&amp;1921=survey)\nThe growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q1 and 2020:Q1 nominal GDP:\nGrowth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q1/2020:Q1 - 1)\nNote that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent.\nFinally, beware that the 2020:Q1 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2021:Q1 estimate.\n",
"options": [],
"Percentage": "none",
"stars": 3
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2021?",
@ -844,8 +935,9 @@
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "This question compares 2021:Q4 to 2020:Q4.\nThe 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q4 which will be published in 2022:Q1.\nAll of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1:\n[https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey)\nThe growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2021:Q4 and 2020:Q4 nominal GDP:\nGrowth Rate (%) = 100 * (2021:Q4/2020:Q4 - 1)\nNote that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent.\nFinally, beware that the 2020:Q4 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2021:Q4 estimate.\n",
"options": [],
"Percentage": "none",
"stars": 3
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q4 2022?",
@ -853,8 +945,9 @@
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "This question compares 2022:Q4 to 2021:Q4. \nThe 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2022:Q4, which will be published in 2023:Q1.\nAll of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1:\n[https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&1921=survey)\nThe growth rate will be calculated using the latest estimates of both 2022:Q4 and 2021:Q4 nominal GDP:\nGrowth Rate (%) = 100 * (2022:Q4/2021:Q4 - 1)\nNote that the nominal GDP growth rate is expressed as a percentage (not decimal.) It is then rounded off to the nearest tenth of a percent.\nFinally, beware that the 2021:Q4 estimate that will be used in the calculation is the revised estimate that will be published along with the release of the 2022:Q14estimate.\n",
"options": [],
"Percentage": "none",
"stars": 3
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "As of July 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine?",
@ -862,7 +955,9 @@
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on July 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).\nFor the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “compassionate use” counts as approval.\n* Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on the source for this statistic used by Our World in Data. If Our World in Data does not track this statistic (as of Dec 26 2020 it does not), Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the FDA or credible reporting by major news publications.\n",
"options": [],
"stars": 3
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "As of October 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine?",
@ -870,7 +965,9 @@
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on October 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).\nFor the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “compassionate use” counts as approval.\n* Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on the source for this statistic used by Our World in Data. If Our World in Data does not track this statistic (as of Dec 26 2020 it does not), Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the FDA or credible reporting by major news publications.\n",
"options": [],
"stars": 3
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 1 per million people?",
@ -878,7 +975,9 @@
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "This question will be preferably settled according to [the data published by Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc). \nShould this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.\n",
"options": [],
"stars": 3
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 0.1 per million people?",
@ -886,7 +985,9 @@
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "This question will be preferably settled according to [the data published by Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc). \nShould this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.\n",
"options": [],
"stars": 3
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "When will at least 45 U.S. states (incl. Washington D.C.) have had no measures for workplace closures for a full week?",
@ -894,6 +995,8 @@
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "This question will be settled according to the data compiled by the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), using the subnational data in [OxCGRT's \"primary\" dataset](https://github.com/OxCGRT/USA-covid-policy).* \nThe relevant data are [plotted and regularly updated](https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/OxCGRT.html) for easy reference. This question will resolve when the light-blue line (\"no measures\") rises at 45 or more in the \"7 days average\" version of the graph.\nIf OxCGRT's primary dataset stops reporting these data before the question resolves, Hypermind might rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, for example OxCGRT's [secondary dataset](https://github.com/OxCGRT/USA-covid-policy) on USA subnational data, or another source that reports a statistic comparable to OxCGRT's current concept of \"no measures for workplace closures.\" If no such source is available, this question might be suspended without ever being resolved.\n*For this question, \"no measures for workplace closures\" will correspond to a 0 for the \"C2_Workplace closing\" variable, as described in the dataset's [codebook](https://github.com/OxCGRT/covid-policy-tracker/blob/master/documentation/codebook.md). For this question to resolve, it must be the case that for 7 days in a row, the \"C2_Workplace closing\" variable is set to 0 for at least 45 U.S. states (the STATE_TOTAL jurisdictions) or 44 U.S. states and Washington D.C..\n",
"options": [],
"stars": 3
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 3
}
}
]

518
data/ladbrokes-questions.json
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52380
data/metaculus-questions.json
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68577
data/metaforecasts.json
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6
data/omen-questions.json
View File

@ -3,6 +3,7 @@
"title": "Will EIP1559 be live on Mainnet before September? ",
"url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0x36cb6942bc9e2b07d7ad4fe33b3fef11be05a28c",
"platform": "Omen",
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -15,7 +16,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "",
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:32:29.989Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 1
}
@ -24,6 +25,7 @@
"title": "Will Joe Biden be the US President at the end of 2021?",
"url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0xd450b6c4db569f600cb42acc0a6cd3a140c4894b",
"platform": "Omen",
"description": "",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -36,7 +38,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "",
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:32:29.990Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 1
}

426
data/polymarket-questions.json
View File

@ -7,17 +7,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.04289521231937485216720053165480434",
"probability": "0.04796853499144450688949206400915807",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9571047876806251478327994683451957",
"probability": "0.9520314650085554931105079359908419",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "134",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.304Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "137",
"liquidity": "1585.76",
"tradevolume": "9977.68",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?",
@ -27,17 +32,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9002039693649043537392718015929172",
"probability": "0.9007428867327054129165036606952368",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.09979603063509564626072819840708283",
"probability": "0.09925711326729458708349633930476325",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "852",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.307Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "853",
"liquidity": "9826.84",
"tradevolume": "96927.10",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump launch a new social media platform by June 15, 2021?",
@ -47,77 +57,47 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.1626438948240446428508480347025264",
"probability": "0.170996995977371772589269286804194",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.8373561051759553571491519652974736",
"probability": "0.829003004022628227410730713195806",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "112",
"stars": 4
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.300Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "122",
"liquidity": "2593.78",
"tradevolume": "9519.49",
"stars": 4
}
},
{
"title": "Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021",
"title": "Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on April 14, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-april-14-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.",
"description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on April 14, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 15, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 14, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.08230492310864397199453546569564446",
"probability": "0.3323729247731281816387191020342297",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9176950768913560280054645343043555",
"probability": "0.6676270752268718183612808979657703",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "94",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will 225M COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered in the US by Biden's 100th day in office? ",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-225-m-covid-19-vaccine-doses-have-been-administered-in-the-us-by-biden-s-100th-day-in-office",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether 225 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 225 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 225 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9653019566630247126092061354150159",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.0346980433369752873907938645849841",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "509",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on July 31, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-july-31-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on July 31, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/.\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9251997333475857063590461609885448",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.07480026665241429364095383901145517",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "43",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.309Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "62",
"liquidity": "5650.83",
"tradevolume": "9005.29",
"stars": 4
}
},
{
"title": "Will North Dakota have the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021?",
@ -127,37 +107,97 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.5453758226938825658224889273909583",
"probability": "0.5172991875020085726736527423312362",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.4546241773061174341775110726090417",
"probability": "0.4827008124979914273263472576687638",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "527",
"stars": 4
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.304Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "562",
"liquidity": "26144.23",
"tradevolume": "88537.93",
"stars": 4
}
},
{
"title": "Will the US have 200M total COVID-19 vaccines administered by Biden’s 100th day in office?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-200m-total-covid-19-vaccines-administered-by-bidens-100th-day-in-office",
"title": "Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether 200 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 200 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 200 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. \n\n",
"description": "This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9952637804609687466398227552779004",
"probability": "0.1338693193154870843938621081569645",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.004736219539031253360177244722099615",
"probability": "0.8661306806845129156061378918430355",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "40",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.307Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "103",
"liquidity": "2108.08",
"tradevolume": "8747.18",
"stars": 4
}
},
{
"title": "Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on July 31, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-july-31-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on July 31, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/.\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9298924736229371364678481019391842",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.07010752637706286353215189806081583",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.307Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "63",
"liquidity": "12467.97",
"tradevolume": "8436.43",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Will 225M COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered in the US by Biden's 100th day in office? ",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-225-m-covid-19-vaccine-doses-have-been-administered-in-the-us-by-biden-s-100th-day-in-office",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether 225 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 225 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 225 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9732867990029642437725352176699527",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.02671320099703575622746478233004727",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.305Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "517",
"liquidity": "4057.43",
"tradevolume": "79832.84",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "What will the 7-day average COVID-19 case count in the US be on April 9?",
@ -167,67 +207,57 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "49,999 or fewer",
"probability": "0.005461995014925152009066173070714966",
"probability": "0.00284995242076918734124340809943596",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "50,000-62,499",
"probability": "0.1402457285384641398727795776003874",
"probability": "0.03762650549352014965374488933017359",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "62,500-74,999",
"probability": "0.8477845321483973198663299988905947",
"probability": "0.9564042087259252283190549533367421",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "75,000 or more",
"probability": "0.006507744298213388251824250438302919",
"probability": "0.003119333359785434685956749233648686",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "266",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.308Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "293",
"liquidity": "2000.00",
"tradevolume": "7528.95",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1",
"title": "Will the US have 200M total COVID-19 vaccines administered by Biden’s 100th day in office?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-200m-total-covid-19-vaccines-administered-by-bidens-100th-day-in-office",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.",
"description": "This is a market on whether 200 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 200 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 200 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. \n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.03415979679579444134958508639239318",
"probability": "0.9947414308982089285866490227040758",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9658402032042055586504149136076068",
"probability": "0.005258569101791071413350977295924238",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "132",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.07287449903319681253427004395658991",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9271255009668031874657299560434101",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "462",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.309Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "43",
"liquidity": "1184.32",
"tradevolume": "7439.83",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Will 150 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 1, 2021?",
@ -237,17 +267,72 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.7550145080311792637230679442582792",
"probability": "0.741583872446752233683024374365151",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.2449854919688207362769320557417208",
"probability": "0.258416127553247766316975625634849",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "1213",
"stars": 4
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.310Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "1281",
"liquidity": "209430.29",
"tradevolume": "674272.26",
"stars": 4
}
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.03413667417694183066424578230798366",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9658633258230581693357542176920163",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.304Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "133",
"liquidity": "2628.43",
"tradevolume": "6625.39",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0698474380887523603937269756869531",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9301525619112476396062730243130469",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.302Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "468",
"liquidity": "4039.72",
"tradevolume": "65532.56",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ",
@ -257,17 +342,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.03896671346054959704613527283522096",
"probability": "0.03895052073921588772001682171912906",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.961033286539450402953864727164779",
"probability": "0.9610494792607841122799831782808709",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "108",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.309Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "109",
"liquidity": "1368.68",
"tradevolume": "6122.61",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?",
@ -277,17 +367,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.01581076221947057694031304319276671",
"probability": "0.01594316631423604659920151808627175",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9841892377805294230596869568072333",
"probability": "0.9840568336857639534007984819137282",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "765",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.303Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "768",
"liquidity": "1597.05",
"tradevolume": "57034.77",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Will the US have fewer than 40,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 16, 2021?",
@ -297,17 +392,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0866927470574085197706746528854292",
"probability": "0.09748821039260846564101130159528613",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9133072529425914802293253471145708",
"probability": "0.9025117896073915343589886984047139",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "679",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.304Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "712",
"liquidity": "1781.14",
"tradevolume": "52868.40",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Will more than 1.75 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day on or before April 10?",
@ -317,28 +417,72 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.1139484754054179756559525019638854",
"probability": "0.07669954432982294017531795533955721",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.8860515245945820243440474980361146",
"probability": "0.9233004556701770598246820446604428",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "485",
"stars": 4
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.306Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "506",
"liquidity": "3872.64",
"tradevolume": "51707.68",
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends",
"address": "0xa8B8c6cd59ECDe225D62185Cd3cAdE606e51b545",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n",
"outcomes": [
"Yes",
"No"
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.7373184535851954646769817275173767",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.2626815464148045353230182724826233",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"options": []
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.306Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "68",
"liquidity": "1000.00",
"tradevolume": "4268.68",
"stars": 4
}
},
{
"title": "Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Ben Askren?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jake-paul-win-his-boxing-match-against-ben-askren",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Jake Paul will win his boxing match against Ben Askren, set to take place on April 17th, 2021. If Jake Paul is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or judgement, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Ben Askren is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.5050163620487289039984542838001509",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.4949836379512710960015457161998491",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.302Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "37",
"liquidity": "42362.29",
"tradevolume": "4262.43",
"stars": 4
}
},
{
"title": "Will Apple, Amazon, or Twitter announce a Bitcoin purchase before July 1, 2021?",
@ -348,17 +492,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.2066787539519710416558416842894747",
"probability": "0.1989107792732988906353258792935972",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.7933212460480289583441583157105253",
"probability": "0.8010892207267011093646741207064028",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "95",
"stars": 4
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.301Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "99",
"liquidity": "1131.33",
"tradevolume": "4132.10",
"stars": 4
}
},
{
"title": "Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021?",
@ -368,16 +517,21 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Bezos",
"probability": "0.9300703642912710245949175378339916",
"probability": "0.9440014648971449386397855584569847",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Musk",
"probability": "0.06992963570872897540508246216600837",
"probability": "0.05599853510285506136021444154301529",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "321",
"stars": 3
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:22:59.308Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": "327",
"liquidity": "2073.26",
"tradevolume": "36737.47",
"stars": 3
}
}
]

2606
data/predictit-questions.json
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1333
data/smarkets-questions.json
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216
data/williamhill-questions.json
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@ -3,6 +3,8 @@
"title": "Sadiq Khan",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"description": "",
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:52.913Z",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -21,6 +23,8 @@
"title": "Brian Rose",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"description": "",
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:52.913Z",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -39,6 +43,8 @@
"title": "Shaun Bailey",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"description": "",
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:52.913Z",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -57,6 +63,8 @@
"title": "Sian Berry",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"description": "",
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:52.913Z",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -75,6 +83,8 @@
"title": "Luisa Porritt",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"description": "",
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:52.913Z",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -93,6 +103,8 @@
"title": "Laurence Fox",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"description": "",
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:52.913Z",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -111,6 +123,8 @@
"title": "Kam Balayev",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"description": "",
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:52.913Z",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -129,6 +143,8 @@
"title": "David Kurten",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"description": "",
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:52.913Z",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -147,6 +163,8 @@
"title": "Count Binface",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"description": "",
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:52.913Z",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -165,6 +183,8 @@
"title": "Richard Hewison",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"description": "",
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:52.913Z",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -183,6 +203,8 @@
"title": "Piers Corbyn",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"description": "",
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:52.913Z",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -201,6 +223,8 @@
"title": "Farah London",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"description": "",
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:52.913Z",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -219,6 +243,8 @@
"title": "Peter Gammons",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"description": "",
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:52.913Z",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -237,6 +263,8 @@
"title": "Nims Obunge",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"description": "",
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:52.913Z",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -255,6 +283,8 @@
"title": "Max Fosh",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"description": "",
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:52.913Z",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -273,6 +303,8 @@
"title": "Mandu Reid",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"description": "",
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:52.913Z",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -291,6 +323,8 @@
"title": "Drillminister",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"description": "",
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:52.913Z",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -309,6 +343,8 @@
"title": "Valerie Brown",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"description": "",
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:52.913Z",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -327,6 +363,8 @@
"title": "Niko Omilana",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"description": "",
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:52.913Z",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -345,6 +383,8 @@
"title": "Steve Kelleher",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"description": "",
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:52.913Z",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -363,6 +403,8 @@
"title": "Vanessa Hudson",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"description": "",
"timestamp": "2021-04-07T23:33:52.913Z",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -488,7 +530,9 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Prime Minister Betting",
@ -811,7 +855,9 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Most Seats in General Election",
@ -849,7 +895,9 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Hartlepool By-Election Winner",
@ -917,7 +965,9 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "US Politics - Kamala Harris Specials",
@ -935,7 +985,9 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Boris Johnson Exit Date",
@ -973,7 +1025,9 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Keir Starmer Exit Date",
@ -996,7 +1050,9 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Next Permanent Labour Leader After Keir Starmer",
@ -1304,7 +1360,9 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Scottish Election 2021 - Most Seats",
@ -1342,7 +1400,9 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Next Permanent Scottish First Minister",
@ -1505,7 +1565,9 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "French 2022 Presidential Election - Candidate With The Most Votes: 1st Round",
@ -1523,7 +1585,9 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "West Midlands Mayoral Election 2021",
@ -1551,7 +1615,9 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Greater Manchester Mayoral Election 2021",
@ -1584,7 +1650,9 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "West Yorkshire Mayoral Election 2021",
@ -1617,7 +1685,9 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "2021 New York City Mayoral Election",
@ -1695,7 +1765,9 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Welsh Assembly Election 2021 - Most Seats",
@ -1723,7 +1795,9 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Next German Federal Election",
@ -1766,7 +1840,9 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Next Norwegian General Election - Party With The Most Votes",
@ -1819,7 +1895,9 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Year of Next Australian Federal Election",
@ -1837,7 +1915,9 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "Australian Federal Election - Winning Party",
@ -1855,7 +1935,9 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
},
{
"title": "US Presidential Election 2024 - Winner",
@ -1864,230 +1946,232 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Kamala Harris",
"probability": 0.15466343538854624,
"probability": 0.15168578888137507,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joe Biden",
"probability": 0.13919709184969162,
"probability": 0.13651720999323758,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump",
"probability": 0.08699818240605726,
"probability": 0.08532325624577348,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Pence",
"probability": 0.06327140538622346,
"probability": 0.06205327726965345,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nikki Haley",
"probability": 0.053537343019112164,
"probability": 0.0525066192281683,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ron DeSantis",
"probability": 0.026768671509556082,
"probability": 0.04550573666441252,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez",
"probability": 0.026768671509556082,
"probability": 0.02625330961408415,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tucker Carlson",
"probability": 0.026768671509556082,
"probability": 0.02625330961408415,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michelle Obama",
"probability": 0.02047016056613112,
"probability": 0.02007606029312317,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pete Buttigieg",
"probability": 0.02047016056613112,
"probability": 0.02007606029312317,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ted Cruz",
"probability": 0.02047016056613112,
"probability": 0.02007606029312317,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump Jnr",
"probability": 0.02047016056613112,
"probability": 0.02007606029312317,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dwayne Johnson",
"probability": 0.02047016056613112,
"probability": 0.02007606029312317,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Beto O'Rourke",
"probability": 0.02047016056613112,
"probability": 0.02007606029312317,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ivanka Trump",
"probability": 0.02047016056613112,
"probability": 0.02007606029312317,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Elizabeth Warren",
"probability": 0.01364677371075408,
"probability": 0.01338404019541545,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrew Cuomo",
"probability": 0.01364677371075408,
"probability": 0.01338404019541545,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Pompeo",
"probability": 0.01364677371075408,
"probability": 0.01338404019541545,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marco Rubio",
"probability": 0.01364677371075408,
"probability": 0.01338404019541545,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Candace Owens",
"probability": 0.01364677371075408,
"probability": 0.01338404019541545,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Cotton",
"probability": 0.01364677371075408,
"probability": 0.01338404019541545,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Amy Klobuchar",
"probability": 0.010387842675350121,
"probability": 0.010187851492032655,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gavin Newsom",
"probability": 0.010387842675350121,
"probability": 0.010187851492032655,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Crenshaw",
"probability": 0.010387842675350121,
"probability": 0.010187851492032655,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bernie Sanders",
"probability": 0.010387842675350121,
"probability": 0.010187851492032655,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"probability": 0.010387842675350121,
"probability": 0.010187851492032655,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mitt Romney",
"probability": 0.010387842675350121,
"probability": 0.010187851492032655,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Paul Ryan",
"probability": 0.010387842675350121,
"probability": 0.010187851492032655,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kanye West",
"probability": 0.010387842675350121,
"probability": 0.010187851492032655,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Josh Hawley",
"probability": 0.010387842675350121,
"probability": 0.010187851492032655,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tim Scott",
"probability": 0.006890945141073843,
"probability": 0.006758277722437504,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rick Scott",
"probability": 0.006890945141073843,
"probability": 0.006758277722437504,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jared Kushner",
"probability": 0.006890945141073843,
"probability": 0.006758277722437504,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gretchen Whitmer",
"probability": 0.006890945141073843,
"probability": 0.006758277722437504,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike DeWine",
"probability": 0.006890945141073843,
"probability": 0.006758277722437504,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Hickenlooper",
"probability": 0.006890945141073843,
"probability": 0.006758277722437504,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tim Kaine",
"probability": 0.006890945141073843,
"probability": 0.006758277722437504,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Megan Rapinoe",
"probability": 0.006890945141073843,
"probability": 0.006758277722437504,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mark Zuckerberg",
"probability": 0.006890945141073843,
"probability": 0.006758277722437504,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Bloomberg",
"probability": 0.006890945141073843,
"probability": 0.006758277722437504,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Hillary Clinton",
"probability": 0.006890945141073843,
"probability": 0.006758277722437504,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Meghan Markle",
"probability": 0.006890945141073843,
"probability": 0.006758277722437504,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jim Jordan",
"probability": 0.006890945141073843,
"probability": 0.006758277722437504,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Matt Gaetz",
"probability": 0.006890945141073843,
"probability": 0.006758277722437504,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kimberly Guilfoyle",
"probability": 0.006890945141073843,
"probability": 0.006758277722437504,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
"qualityindicators": {
"stars": 2
}
}
]

3
src/estimize-fetch.js
View File

@ -1,3 +1,4 @@
import { calculateStars } from "./stars.js"
import fs from "fs"
export function estimize(){
@ -19,8 +20,6 @@ export function estimize(){
"options": [],
"timestamp": new Date().toISOString(),
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": numforecasts,
"numforecasters": numforecasters,
"stars": calculateStars("Estimize", ({})),
}
})

4
src/index.js
View File

@ -76,7 +76,9 @@ let coverttocsvandmerge = async () => {
let addtohistory = () => {
let currentJSON = fs.readFileSync(locationData + "metaforecasts.json")
let historyJSON = fs.readFileSync(locationData + "metaforecasts_history_bootstrap.json")
for(let forecast of currentJSON){
}
}
async function whattodo(message,callback){