quantified.uncertainty/metaforecast
1
0
Fork 0
Code Issues Pull Requests Packages Projects Releases Wiki Activity
c83f2a747f
metaforecast/data/smarkets-questions.json

4923 lines
132 KiB
JSON
Raw Normal View History

Added smarkets
2021-02-16 14:18:23 +00:00
[
{
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"title": "Next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnson",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Sajid Javid",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.03746229444390386,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rory Stewart",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.0009730466089325679,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.025591125814926532,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Penny Mordaunt",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.027050695728325382,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jeremy Hunt",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.10810547825240828,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "James Cleverly",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dominic Raab",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.06490220881580228,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Tugendhat",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.06276150627615062,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Priti Patel",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.05264182154325192,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Amber Rudd",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.00544906101002238,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Johnny Mercer",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Gove",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.0810547825240829,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Matthew Hancock",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.05264182154325192,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liz Truss",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.07482728422691447,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gavin Williamson",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.03892186435730271,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrea Leadsom",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.013914566507735718,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Geoffrey Cox",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tobias Ellwood",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Steve Baker",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.030359054198696115,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ruth Davidson",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.023158509292595112,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Esther McVey",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.009730466089325677,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Philip Hammond",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rishi Sunak",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.2904544127663715,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Contracts to be added on request",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Gender of next Conservative leader",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Male",
"probability": 0.7736942156241513,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Female",
"probability": 0.22630578437584864,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "What will be the gender of the next permanent Conservative Party leader, after Boris Johnson?",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Next German Chancellor after Angela Merkel",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/974485/politics/europe/germany/next-german-chancellor-2019",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Friedrich Merz",
Daily commit
2021-04-04 17:52:59 +00:00
"probability": 0.005478779949300842,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer",
Daily commit
2021-04-04 17:52:59 +00:00
"probability": 0.017744705208929592,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jens Spahn",
Daily commit
2021-04-04 17:52:59 +00:00
"probability": 0.05274347861640363,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Armin Laschet",
Daily commit
2021-04-04 17:52:59 +00:00
"probability": 0.32709134025676667,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robert Habeck",
Daily commit
2021-04-04 17:52:59 +00:00
"probability": 0.07114236650584675,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alice Weidel",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrea Nahles",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Daniel Gunther",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ralph Brinkhaus",
Daily commit
2021-04-04 17:52:59 +00:00
"probability": 0.03409927222176792,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Wolfgang Schäuble",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Julia Klockner",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Heiko Maas",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Malu Dreyer",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Peter Altmaier",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ralf Stegner",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ursula Von der Leyen",
Daily commit
2021-04-04 17:52:59 +00:00
"probability": 0.025513124540027802,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sahra Wagenknecht",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Martin Sonneborn",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Markus Söder",
Daily commit
2021-04-04 17:52:59 +00:00
"probability": 0.3683866219641835,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Olaf Scholz",
Daily commit
2021-04-04 17:52:59 +00:00
"probability": 0.01169351541417941,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Norbert Röttgen",
Daily commit
2021-04-04 17:52:59 +00:00
"probability": 0.002698503557118325,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Annalena Baerbock",
Daily commit
2021-04-04 17:52:59 +00:00
"probability": 0.0834082917654755,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Next permanent leader of the SNP after Nicola Sturgeon",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/1467262/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/snp-leader",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Derek Mackay",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Humza Yousaf",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Stewart Hosie",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mhairi Black",
"probability": null
},
{
"name": "Shona Robison",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Swinney",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Keith Brown",
"probability": null
},
{
"name": "Joanna Cherry",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Angus Robertson",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alex Salmond",
"probability": null
},
{
"name": "Michael Matheson",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tommy Sheppard",
"probability": null
},
{
"name": "Angela Constance",
"probability": null
},
{
"name": "Roseanna Cunningham",
"probability": null
}
],
"description": "",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Year in which Boris Johnson will cease to be Prime Minister",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.009484966328369536,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.00009484966328369536,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2021",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.1281418950962724,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2022 or later",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.8622782889120744,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Boris Johnson to be the last Prime Minister of a four country UK",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05664798777381558,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9433520122261844,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "With disruptions caused by the post Brexit settlement with the EU could the country could split apart. This would make Boris Johnson the last PM of a four-country UK. ",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Next Prime Minister after Boris Johnson",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/4765465/politics/uk/next-pm/next-pm",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Jeremy Corbyn",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.011361959569130883,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nigel Farage",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.007746790615316511,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jo Swinson",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.08779696030692045,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Keir Starmer",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.1570016231370813,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rebecca Long-Bailey",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.010550391028478675,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sajid Javid",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.024568393094289504,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Angela Rayner",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dominic Raab",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.041021100782056945,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emily Thornberry",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.024568393094289504,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rory Stewart",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.01601003393832079,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Amber Rudd",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.02169101372288623,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dominic Grieve",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Johnny Mercer",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Gove",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.041021100782056945,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Penny Mordaunt",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ruth Davidson",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.020510550391028472,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Watson",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.01601003393832079,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yvette Cooper",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.028404898922827205,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gavin Williamson",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Geoffrey Cox",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "James Cleverly",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jeremy Hunt",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.06706507304116864,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John McDonnell",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lisa Nandy",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.03688947912055481,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liz Truss",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.03511878412276818,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Priti Patel",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.03511878412276818,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Tugendhat",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ken Clarke",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.04471004869411243,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Harriet Harman",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.007377895824110962,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Margaret Beckett",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.054670208056662235,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rishi Sunak",
Daily commit
2021-03-20 00:23:54 +00:00
"probability": 0.2107864836948502,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Matthew Hancock",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Contracts to be added on request",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Year of next General Election",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/34757345/politics/uk/year-next-general-election-2020/year-next-ge-2020",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "2020",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.04493978069387021,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2021",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.06417400683084666,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2022",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.0691173827071724,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2023",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.17975912277548084,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2024 or later",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.6420097069926299,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Year of next Scottish referendum",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/39181409/politics/uk/scottish-independence/year-scottish-referendum",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"probability": 0.07764344119085889,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2021",
"probability": 0.04822139911943532,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2022",
"probability": 0.17471521420085262,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2023",
"probability": 0.09986721643720735,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2024",
"probability": 0.2729750506674121,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2025 or later",
"probability": 0.3265776783842337,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Next Cabinet Member to leave",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41589478/politics/uk/cabinet/next-cabinet-member-to-leave",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Boris Johnson",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.03810107734080757,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rishi Sunak",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.04379434177104319,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dominic Raab",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Priti Patel",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.08758868354208638,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Gove",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.08338442673206622,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robert Buckland",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.0700709468336691,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ben Wallace",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.10423053341508279,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Matt Hancock",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.09520889901024789,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alok Sharma",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.1510028904265569,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Elizabeth Truss",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.04738547779626873,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Thérèse Coffey",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gavin Williamson",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.12884295349040906,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "George Eustice",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robert Jenrick",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.06735569764386443,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Grant Shapps",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brandon Lewis",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.04493299465709031,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alister Jack",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Simon Hart",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Baroness Evans of Bowes Park",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Oliver Dowden",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Amanda Milling",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.03810107734080757,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Party to get the most seats",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41607302/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/most-seats-by-party",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.3905262220639302,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservatives",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.5599679458641261,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.04950583207194372,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Contracts to be added on request.",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "USA and UK to sign a trade deal in 2021",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41616796/politics/uk/brexit/uk-usa-trade-deal",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-03-18 21:57:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.2967147740220281,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-03-18 21:57:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.7032852259779718,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Year of next General Election in Hungary",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41618602/politics/europe/hungary/year-of-next-general-election",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "2022 or earlier",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.41877068864801714,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2023",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.1937431037839943,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2024",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.1937431037839943,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2025 or later",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.1937431037839943,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The Hungarian parliament passed a state of emergency bill in March 2020 giving prime minister Viktor Orbán the power to rule by decree, only ending when Orbán's government sees fit. During this period, no elections will be held. The next Hungarian parliamentary election is scheduled to take place in 2022 or earlier, but will it?",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Most seats in the Welsh Assembly Elections 2021",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41618654/politics/uk/2021-welsh-senedd-election/welsh-assembly-elections-2021",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.7313921917423462,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservatives",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.22291920232187992,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.032300346409512216,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.013388259526261582,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Winner of the 2022 French presidential election",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Emmanuel Macron",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": null,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marine Le Pen",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": null,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": null,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "François Baroin",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": null,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Xavier Bertrand",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": null,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yannick Jadot",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": null,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Olivier Faure",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": null,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jean-Marie Bigard",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": null,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jean Lassalle",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": null,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joachim Son-Forget",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": null,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Anne Hidalgo",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": null,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bernard Cazeneuve",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": null,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": null,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Arnaud Montebourg",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": null,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ségolène Royal",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": null,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Florian Philippot",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": null,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Edouard Philippe",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": null
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
}
],
"description": "Which candidate will win the 2022 French presidential election?",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Macron first round vote share",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Under 25%",
"probability": 0.5155602574274882,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "25% or over",
"probability": 0.48443974257251166,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "What will incumbent president Emmanuel Macron's vote share be in the first round of the 2022 French presidential election?",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Next permanent leader of the Labour Party, after Keir Starmer",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Angela Rayner",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.22904211505247773,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lisa Nandy",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.11066826092732829,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sadiq Khan",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.10216553739869803,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rebecca Long-Bailey",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.03693370532748771,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Anneliese Dodds",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.06815464328417696,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rosena Allin-Khan",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.06642752756742394,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andy Burnham",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.147601966254816,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yvette Cooper",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.057791948983658824,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Clive Lewis",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.06988175900092998,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John McDonnell",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.03693370532748771,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ian Lavery",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Jarvis",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.03015809751561047,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emily Thornberry",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nick Thomas-Symonds",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sam Tarry",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Louise Haigh",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Richard Burgon",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dawn Butler",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Carden",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jess Phillips",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "David Lammy",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jon Trickett",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Barry Gardiner",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Seema Malhotra",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.04424073335990435,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jonathan Ashworth",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ed Miliband",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Hilary Benn",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Stella Creasy",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rachel Reeves",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Laura Pidcock",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Charlotte Nichols",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kate Osborne",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Margaret Greenwood",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Zarah Sultana",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Wes Streeting",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
},
{
"name": "Jim McMahon",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
},
{
"name": "Alison McGovern",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
},
{
"name": "Bridget Phillipson",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
}
],
"description": "Keir Starmer was elected Labour Party leader on 4 April 2020. Who will be his successor?\r\n\r\nOther candidates available on request.",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Gender of the next Labour leader",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Female",
"probability": 0.5508474576271186,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Male",
"probability": 0.4491525423728813,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The Labour Party has never had a permanent female leader. Could Keir Starmer's successor be the first?",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "First Minister to leave the Cabinet?",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41636607/politics/uk/cabinet/raab-versus-hancock-first-to-go",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Dominic Raab",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"probability": 0.4085036637099884,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Matt Hancock",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"probability": 0.5914963362900116,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "With the controversies over the ordering of PPE and the delivery of it to hospitals will Dominic Raab or Matt Hancock leave the Cabinet first? ",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Keir Starmer exit date",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41659361/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/keir-starmer-exit-date",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "2023 or earlier",
Daily commit
2021-03-28 12:02:57 +00:00
"probability": 0.4925623091321052,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2024",
Daily commit
2021-03-28 12:02:57 +00:00
"probability": 0.17909565560043345,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2025 or later",
Daily commit
2021-03-28 12:02:57 +00:00
"probability": 0.3283420352674613,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "When will Keir Starmer cease to be leader of the Labour Party?",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "2021 London mayoral election winner",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41659442/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/2021-london-mayoral-election",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Sadiq Khan",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.9460613886957382,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Shaun Bailey",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.012416807390483755,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Siân Berry",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.00009933445912387005,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.00009933445912387005,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brian Rose",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.039733783649548014,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mandu Reid",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.00009933445912387005,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Luisa Porritt",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.00009933445912387005,
Daily update; this time with metaculus questions which haven't resolved yet
2021-03-08 22:17:08 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Laurence Fox",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.0009933445912387005,
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "David Kurten",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.00009933445912387005,
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Piers Corbyn",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.00009933445912387005,
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Farah London",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.00009933445912387005,
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Peter Gammons",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.00009933445912387005,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Who will be elected mayor of London in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Sadiq Khan to get over 50% in first round",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41659455/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/sadiq-khan-to-win-on-first-preferences",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.43361097501224893,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.5663890249877511,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Will Sadiq Khan receive over 50% of the vote in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "2021 West Midlands mayoral election winner",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41664162/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-midlands-mayoral-election-winner",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Andy Street",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.7692382244621051,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liam Byrne",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.23076177553789493,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Beverley Nielsen",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kathryn Downs",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Who will be elected mayor of the West Midlands in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "2021 Tees Valley mayoral election winner",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41664244/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-tees-valley-mayoral-election-winner",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Ben Houchen",
Daily commit
2021-03-28 12:02:57 +00:00
"probability": 0.7575454545454545,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jessie Joe Jacobs",
Daily commit
2021-03-28 12:02:57 +00:00
"probability": 0.24245454545454548,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Who will be elected mayor of the Tees Valley in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Scottish Parliament election 2021 winner",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41664419/politics/uk/2021-scottish-parliament-election/scottish-parliament-election-2021",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily commit
2021-04-05 14:39:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.9222242921013412,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-05 14:39:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.014344262295081966,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-04-05 14:39:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.011643070044709387,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
Daily commit
2021-04-05 14:39:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.05178837555886735,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Scottish Parliament election 2021 most seats (w/o SNP)",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41664420/politics/uk/2021-scottish-parliament-election/scottish-parliament-election-2021-winner-w-o-snp",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.543215174663119,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.33010042056475836,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.08582954252853832,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Green",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.040854862243584235,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party (excluding the SNP) will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Local elections highest vote share",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41665773/politics/uk/local-elections/highest-vote-share",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.6850305021116846,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.31496949788831535,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will receive the highest national equivalent vote share at the 2021 United Kingdom local elections?",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Next permanent leader of fine gael after Leo Varadkar",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41669531/politics/europe/ireland/fine-gael-leader",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Simon Coveney",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.6111636707663197,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Paschal Donohoe",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.09145380006307156,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Helen McEntee",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.1142646904236308,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Josepha Madigan",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.0875643855776306,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Simon Harris",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.0955534531693472,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Heather Humphreys",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eoghan Murphy",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Charles Flanagan",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sean Kyne",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Richard Bruton",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Paul Kehoe",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Martin Heydon",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joe McHugh",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Ring",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Creed",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Colm Brophy",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Contracts to be added on request.",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Irish reunification referendum before 2023",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41676064/politics/uk/scotland/irish-reunification-referendum-before-2023",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.17491691446562882,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.8250830855343712,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Will Northern Ireland hold a referendum on Irish reunification on or before 31 December 2022?",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Next Scottish First Minister",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41696009/politics/uk/scotland/next-scottish-first-minister",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Kate Forbes",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.32232651692926584,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Angus Robertson",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Swinney",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.32232651692926584,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Keith Brown",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Humza Yousaf",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Shirley-Anne Somerville",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Russell",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ruth Davidson",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.14582634931277239,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Shona Robison",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Richard Leonard",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mhairi Black",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Matheson",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joanna Cherry",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.20952061682869597,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jackson Carlaw",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Stewart Hosie",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Who will be the next First Minister of Scotland after Nicola Sturgeon? Other contracts available on request.",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "French Presidential election to happen before 2022",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41709221/politics/europe/france/early-presidential-election",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1252665739452944,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8747334260547056,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Will Keir Starmer face a leadership challenge?",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41730234/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/keir-starmer-to-face-leadership-challenge",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.17219113215669393,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8278088678433061,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Will any candidate receive the nominations of at least 20% of Labour MPs to challenge Keir Starmer for the party leadership before the next UK general election?",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "UK to begin imports of chlorinated chicken",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41731856/politics/uk/brexit/chlorinated-chicken",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.06568897036358082,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.9343110296364192,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Will the UK begin importing chlorine-washed chicken products following the end of the transition period on 31 December 2020, but on or before 30 June 2021?",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Washington, D.C. to become a state before 2022",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41736144/politics/us/51st-state/washington-d-c-to-become-a-state-by-2021",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-03-24 16:10:05 +00:00
"probability": 0.12472560367192177,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-03-24 16:10:05 +00:00
"probability": 0.8752743963280782,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Will Washington, D.C. become a state before 1 January 2022?",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Puerto Rico to become a state before 2022",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41736169/politics/us/51st-state/puerto-rico-to-become-a-state-before-2022",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"probability": 0.16540927951716333,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"probability": 0.8345907204828368,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Will Puerto Rico become a state before 1 January 2022?",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Next Fianna Fáil leader",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41761772/politics/europe/ireland/next-fianna-fail-leader-after-micheal-martin",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Jim O'Callaghan",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.40963460593150913,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael McGrath",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.33442569228248403,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dara Calleary",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.2559397017860069,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Thomas Byrne",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Niall Collins",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "James Lawless",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Paul McAuliffe",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Darragh O'Brien",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Norma Foley",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robert Troy",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John McGuinness",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jack Chambers",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "James Browne",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Anne Rabbitte",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Seán Ó Fearghail",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eamon O'Cuiv",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mary Butler",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Who will be the next permanent Fianna Fáil leader after Micheál Martin? Contracts added on request.",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Next Scottish independence referendum result (before 2022)",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41774246/politics/uk/scotland/result-of-indie-ref",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "For independence",
"probability": 0.5534059668058242,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Against independence",
"probability": 0.4465940331941757,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Will the SNP have an overall majority following the 2021 Scottish Election?",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41793318/politics/uk/2021-scottish-parliament-election/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-majority",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.5,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.5,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Next general election overall majority",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41817534/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/next-general-election-overall-majority",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "No overall majority",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.4122264290331517,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative majority",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.3498014590451565,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour majority",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.2338166035645027,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrat majority",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.00415550835718903,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party (if any) will win an overall majority at the next UK general election? Contracts added on request.",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Date of next Japanese general election",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41891949/politics/world/japan/date-of-next-general-election",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 22 October 2021",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.6065158529129182,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "22 October 2021 or later",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.39348414708708185,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "When will the next Japanese general election take place?",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Belarus to have a General Election in 2021",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41933267/politics/europe/belorussia/general-election",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.3476521573483189,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.6523478426516811,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Joe Biden to serve full term",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41935107/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-serve-full-term",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-04-04 17:52:59 +00:00
"probability": 0.4563725002487315,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-04-04 17:52:59 +00:00
"probability": 0.5436274997512686,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Will Joe Biden serve his first term as President of the United States in full? See market rules for more details.",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "2024 Democratic presidential nominee",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41936389/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-democratic-presidential-nominee",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Joe Biden",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.3579995202686496,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kamala Harris",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.3807867594147278,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Elizabeth Warren",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.050011993283761096,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.08563204605420964,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michelle Obama",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.04437514991604702,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pete Buttigieg",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.05996641880546894,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gavin Newsom",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nina Turner",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrew Cuomo",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bernie Sanders",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.020028783881026625,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rashida Tlaib",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ayanna Pressley",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Amy Klobuchar",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eric Garcetti",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Cory Booker",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gretchen Whitmer",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Bloomberg",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.0011993283761093788,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Who will be the Democratic candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "2024 Republican presidential nominee",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41936834/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-republican-presidential-nominee",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Donald Trump",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.29248387521390024,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump Jr.",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.021982361458470448,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Cotton",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.031328155850993814,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Pence",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.05265236277477952,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tucker Carlson",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.03659339212847176,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ted Cruz",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.03659339212847176,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nikki Haley",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.15664077925496908,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marco Rubio",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.02632618138738976,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Josh Hawley",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.03461892852441753,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ivanka Trump",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.08226931683559299,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Pompeo",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.05265236277477952,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Crenshaw",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Chris Christie",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eric Trump",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Larry Hogan",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rick Scott",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.01316309069369488,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tim Scott",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.01316309069369488,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
},
{
"name": "Ron DeSantis",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.14953271028037382,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
}
],
"description": "Who will be the Republican candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "2024 US presidential winner",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41938283/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-presidential-winner",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Joe Biden",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.18046984951824185,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kamala Harris",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.2122983652701093,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.11518891414961567,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tucker Carlson",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.024575078488686803,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Cotton",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.010826025765941322,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Pence",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.037349788892497564,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump Jr.",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.06365703150373497,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ted Cruz",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.019703366894013207,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.07220959185882862,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michelle Obama",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nikki Haley",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.06982786619032152,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Elizabeth Warren",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gavin Newsom",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrew Cuomo",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marco Rubio",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nina Turner",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pete Buttigieg",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.054130128829706615,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bernie Sanders",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rashida Tlaib",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Josh Hawley",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Pompeo",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.027065064414853308,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Crenshaw",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ayanna Pressley",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Chris Christie",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ivanka Trump",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.054130128829706615,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Candace Owens",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Bloomberg",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ron DeSantis",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.05856879939374256,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Who will win the 2024 United States presidential election? Candidates added on request.",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "2021 London mayoral election second place",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41944560/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-2nd-place",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Shaun Bailey",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.8967140570567743,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sadiq Khan",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.027681009321156202,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Siân Berry",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.01449957631108182,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Luisa Porritt",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brian Rose",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.05705677431503625,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mandu Reid",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.0009415309292910274,
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Laurence Fox",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.0031070520666603902,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Who will finish in second place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request.",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Women's Equality Party to win a seat in the London Assembly",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41945749/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-women-s-equality-party-to-win-a-seat",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.17355085039916696,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.826449149600833,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Will the Women's Equality Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Party's Candidate to win the the 2024 US election",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41945845/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/party-to-win-the-presidential-election",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.4087618689480116,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democrat",
"probability": 0.5912381310519883,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Contracts available on request.",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "London Assembly: Labour majority",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41945873/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-labour-majority",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.41771041084962107,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5822895891503789,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Will Labour win a majority on the London Assembly following the 2021 election?",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "How many party leaders will still be in post at the end of 2021?",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41947872/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/party-leaders-at-end-of-2021",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Fewer than 3",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.1297062881923911,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Exactly 3",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.33757145673171696,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Exactly 4",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.532722255075892,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "How many of the following four party leaders will still be in position on 31 December 2021: Boris Johnson, Keir Starmer, Ed Davey and Nicola Sturgeon?",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "2021 Norwegian election: Most votes",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41955745/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-parliamentary-election",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative (Høyre)",
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"probability": 0.482994803967879,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour (Arbeiderpartiet)",
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"probability": 0.29822075263737996,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Centre (Senterpartiet)",
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"probability": 0.1312391749330814,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)",
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"probability": 0.043772634230829784,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)",
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"probability": 0.043772634230829784,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian parliamentary election? (Norwegian names in brackets)",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "2021 Norwegian election: Largest minor party",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41955751/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-election-largest-minor-party",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Centre (Senterpartiet)",
"probability": 0.7432820245238717,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)",
"probability": 0.17392816766675365,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)",
"probability": 0.08278980780937473,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian election, excluding the Conservative and Labour parties? Parties added on request.",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Brexit Party to control any council",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41967411/politics/uk/local-elections/brexit-party-to-control-any-council",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.050332192470304,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.949667807529696,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win a majority of seats on any council at the 2021 local elections?",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Brexit Party to win a seat in the London Assembly",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41967432/politics/uk/2021-elections/brexit-party-to-win-a-london-assembly-seat",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.12727939155136078,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.8727206084486392,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "London Assembly: Liberal Democrat seats",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41968727/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-liberal-democrat-seats",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "0–2",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"probability": 0.8716389548693586,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "3 or more",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"probability": 0.12836104513064134,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "How many seats will the Liberal Democrats win in the 2021 London Assembly election?",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Joe Biden's first international visit",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/41980144/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-s-first-international-visit",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "United Kingdom",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.6515410958904109,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republic of Ireland",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.1829337899543379,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "France",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.0380517503805175,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Germany",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.11605783866057838,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "China",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.0019025875190258753,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ukraine",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.009512937595129375,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which of these countries will be visited by Joe Biden first in his role as President of the United States?",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Biden approval on day 100",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42015053/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-approval-on-day-100",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Under 45%",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.029573118463912224,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "45–49.9%",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.09523401337219269,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "50–54.9%",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.6749528544488256,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "55–59.9%",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.12986456368935367,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "60–64.9%",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.05717469569689696,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "65% or over",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.013200754328818788,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "What will Joe Biden's approval rating be on FiveThirtyEight on day 100 of his presidency?",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Matt Hancock to remain Health Secretary",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42015339/politics/uk/cabinet/matt-hancock-to-leave-post",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-03-29 22:28:30 +00:00
"probability": 0.763369616658779,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-03-29 22:28:30 +00:00
"probability": 0.236630383341221,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Will Matt Hancock be in position as Health Secretary on 1 July 2021?",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Gavin Williamson to remain Education Secretary",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42015372/politics/uk/cabinet/gavin-williamson-to-remain-education-secretary",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.45030684625806966,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.5496931537419303,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Will Gavin Williamson be in position as Education Secretary on 1 July 2021?",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "2021 West Yorkshire mayoral election winner",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42020574/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-yorkshire-mayoral-election",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Tracy Brabin",
"probability": 0.8051441932969603,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative Party candidate",
"probability": 0.19485580670303976,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Who will be elected mayor of West Yorkshire in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election winner",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42022415/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.8070128717265868,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.19298712827341322,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election? Contracts added on request.",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Most seats in the Bulgarian National Assembly election",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42022501/politics/europe/bulgaria/bulgarian-national-assembly-election-2021",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "GERB",
Daily commit
2021-04-04 17:52:59 +00:00
"probability": 0.7809625254188051,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "BSP",
Daily commit
2021-04-04 17:52:59 +00:00
"probability": 0.1729447080468674,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "ITN",
Daily commit
2021-04-04 17:52:59 +00:00
"probability": 0.046092766534327485,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election: SNP vote share",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42025571/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election-snp-share",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Under 45%",
"probability": 0.32353451266042316,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "45.0–49.9%",
"probability": 0.4250780437044745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "50% or over",
"probability": 0.2513874436351023,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "What percentage of the vote will the SNP candidate receive in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election?",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Netanyahu to be Israeli PM on 1 July?",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42025628/politics/world/israel/will-netanyahu-be-israeli-pm-on-1-july",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.7403027859894294,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.2596972140105706,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel on 1 July 2021?",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "London elections: In-person voting",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42026863/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-in-person-voting",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "In-person and postal voting",
Daily commit
2021-03-29 22:28:30 +00:00
"probability": 0.948190001915342,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Postal voting only",
Daily commit
2021-03-29 22:28:30 +00:00
"probability": 0.05180999808465811,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Will in-person voting go ahead in the 2021 London elections, or will they be conducted by postal voting only?",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "London Elections to take place on 6th May 2021",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42031427/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-elections-to-go-ahead",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.949080348499516,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.05091965150048402,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "$2,000 stimulus checks in Biden's first 100 days",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42037956/politics/us/joe-biden/2000-stimulus-in-biden-s-first-100-days",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"probability": 0.03920031360250882,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"probability": 0.9607996863974911,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Will the House and Senate agree to stimulus checks of $2,000 to American citizens (excluding the $600 already paid) in the first 100 days of Joe Biden's presidency?",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "New York City mayoral election 2021: Democratic candidate",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42042481/politics/us/2021-elections/new-york-city-mayoral-election-2021",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
Daily commit
2021-03-29 22:28:30 +00:00
"probability": 0.5754450978812535,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eric Adams",
Daily commit
2021-03-29 22:28:30 +00:00
"probability": 0.1714331748972851,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Scott Stringer",
Daily commit
2021-03-29 22:28:30 +00:00
"probability": 0.07322967856279707,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Raymond McGuire",
Daily commit
2021-03-29 22:28:30 +00:00
"probability": 0.036655119632643195,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maya Wiley",
Daily commit
2021-03-29 22:28:30 +00:00
"probability": 0.09586723596229758,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Shaun Donovan",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dianne Morales",
Daily commit
2021-03-29 22:28:30 +00:00
"probability": 0.04736969306372351,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kathryn Garcia",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Who will win the Democratic primary to be the party's candidate for the 2021 New York City mayoral election? Candidates added on request.",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Trump to create new political party",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42047360/politics/us/donald-trump/trump-to-create-new-political-party",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"probability": 0.11602004826434008,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"probability": 0.8839799517356599,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Will Donald Trump create (or affiliate himself with) a new political party in 2021?",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Most seats following the German Federal Election 2021",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42048426/politics/europe/germany/german-federal-election",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "CDU + CSU",
Daily commit
2021-03-24 16:10:05 +00:00
"probability": 0.8558522783679142,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "SPD",
Daily commit
2021-03-24 16:10:05 +00:00
"probability": 0.055197061451404746,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Greens",
Daily commit
2021-03-24 16:10:05 +00:00
"probability": 0.0708825573314802,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "AfD",
Daily commit
2021-03-24 16:10:05 +00:00
"probability": 0.018068102849200837,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Donald Trump Jr. to run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42048465/politics/us/2021-elections/donald-trump-jr",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "2022 House of Representatives control",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42048472/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-house-of-representatives-control",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
"probability": 0.3759190298863745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
"probability": 0.6240809701136256,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win the most seats in the 2022 House of Representatives elections?",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "President Joe Biden to leave office in his first term via Impeachment, Resignation or the 25th Amendment",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42048883/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-leave-officeq",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.4636832704901766,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.5363167295098233,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "2022 Senate control",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42048961/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-senate-control",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
Daily update; this time with metaculus questions which haven't resolved yet
2021-03-08 22:17:08 +00:00
"probability": 0.44550898203592815,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
Daily update; this time with metaculus questions which haven't resolved yet
2021-03-08 22:17:08 +00:00
"probability": 0.5544910179640719,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will control the United States Senate following the 2022 midterm elections?",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Lisa Nandy to remain the Labour Party's Shadow Secretary of State for FCO until at least the 1st January 2022",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42048963/politics/uk/shadow-cabinet-ministers/lisa-nandy",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6005369127516779,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.39946308724832214,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "2022 House and Senate control",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42048965/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-house-and-senate-control",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "D House / D Senate",
"probability": 0.2841289413422582,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "D House / R Senate",
"probability": 0.12585872820151486,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "R House / D Senate",
"probability": 0.2230051083318654,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "R House / R Senate",
"probability": 0.36700722212436143,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Who will control the House and Senate following the 2022 midterm elections?",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Harriet Tubman to appear on the US $20 note in 2021",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42056981/politics/us/dollars/harriet-tubman",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-03-18 21:57:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.5351127473538886,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-03-18 21:57:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.4648872526461113,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Turnout of the Scottish Parliament Election in 2021 (FPTP figure)",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42058821/politics/uk/2021-scottish-parliament-election/scottish-parliament-election-2021-turnout",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "50% and below",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "51-53%",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "54-56%",
Daily commit
2021-03-18 21:57:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.47237606375793595,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "57%+",
Daily commit
2021-03-18 21:57:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.527623936242064,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Marjorie Taylor Greene to be expelled from Congress",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42064701/politics/us/marjorie-taylor-greene/marjorie-taylor-greene-to-be-expelled-from-congress",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-04-05 14:39:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.17850181008075744,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-04-05 14:39:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.8214981899192425,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Will US Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene be expelled from the House of Representatives by the end of April 2021?",
Changed stars as unicode to their numeric value
2021-02-18 19:55:26 +00:00
"stars": 2
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
},
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
{
"title": "Next G20 leader to leave",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42092242/politics/world/world-leaders/next-g20-leader-to-leave",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yoshihide Suga (Japan)",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.453241290044224,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emmanuel Macron (France)",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.16341279257900984,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joe Biden (United States)",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Boris Johnson (United Kingdom)",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.15866681048430592,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil)",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.22467910689246035,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Justin Trudeau (Canada)",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa)",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Vladimir Putin (Russia)",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Xi Jinping (China)",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (Turkey)",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which of the listed leaders of G20 countries will be the next to leave their position?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Year of next Canadian federal election",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42093782/politics/world/canada/year-of-next-canadian-general-election",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "2021",
Daily update; this time with metaculus questions which haven't resolved yet
2021-03-08 22:17:08 +00:00
"probability": 0.4012149786925378,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2022",
Daily update; this time with metaculus questions which haven't resolved yet
2021-03-08 22:17:08 +00:00
"probability": 0.17109438752380088,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2023 or later",
Daily update; this time with metaculus questions which haven't resolved yet
2021-03-08 22:17:08 +00:00
"probability": 0.42769063378366123,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "When will the next Canadian federal election take place?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Alliance 4 Unity to win a seat in the Scottish Parliament",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42093783/politics/uk/2021-scottish-parliament-election/alliance-4-unity-to-win-a-seat-in-the-scottish-parliament",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-04-05 14:39:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.1741546125107769,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-04-05 14:39:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.8258453874892232,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Will Alliance 4 Unity win any seats in the Scottish Parliament following the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Brian Rose vote share",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42095181/politics/uk/2021-elections/brian-rose-vote-share",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 2.0%",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.4517169417567824,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2.0% or more",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.5482830582432177,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "What share of the vote will Brian Rose receive in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Aberdeenshire West",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42096476/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeenshire-west",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily commit
2021-03-07 18:55:26 +00:00
"probability": 0.5665742024965326,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-03-07 18:55:26 +00:00
"probability": 0.43342579750346744,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win Aberdeenshire West at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Ayr",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42096491/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/ayr",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": 0.6379892345588906,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
"probability": 0.36201076544110933,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Ayr at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Dumbarton",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42096506/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/dumbarton",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.5894943159545276,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.4105056840454724,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Dumbarton at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Dumfriesshire",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42096507/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/dumfriesshire",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.5562312633832976,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.44376873661670235,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Dumfriesshire at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "East Lothian",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42096508/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/east-lothian",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.6047682119205298,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.3245916114790287,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.0706401766004415,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of East Lothian at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Eastwood",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42096509/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/eastwood",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.4403120464441219,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.4403120464441219,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.11937590711175618,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Eastwood at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Edinburgh Central",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42096534/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-central",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.6483971044467425,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.21867067782269436,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.0722948199680361,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Scottish Green",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.06063739776252703,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Central at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Edinburgh Southern",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42096558/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-southern",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.5078098180569859,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.39006179196704427,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.10212838997596979,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Southern at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Edinburgh Western",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42096565/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-western",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.4694173927900222,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrat",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.5305826072099777,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Western at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Galloway and West Dumfries",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42096580/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/galloway-and-west-dumfries",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily commit
2021-03-28 12:02:57 +00:00
"probability": 0.46785866326096215,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-03-28 12:02:57 +00:00
"probability": 0.5321413367390379,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Galloway and West Dumfries at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Glasgow Kelvin",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42096591/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/glasgow-kelvin",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": 0.7601773113804958,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0.07535733671069297,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Scottish Green",
"probability": 0.16446535190881129,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Glasgow Kelvin at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "North East Fife",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42096593/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/north-east-fife",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": 0.32412084246640616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrat",
"probability": 0.6758791575335938,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of North East Fife at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "2021 Senedd election: Most seats (w/o Labour)",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42101855/politics/uk/2021-welsh-senedd-election/2021-senedd-election-most-seats-w-o-labour",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.8013886351178513,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.19861136488214873,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party (excluding Labour) will win the most seats in the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Assembly) election? Contracts added on request.",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "2021 Senedd election: Labour majority",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42101863/politics/uk/2021-welsh-senedd-election/2021-senedd-election-labour-majority",
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.31186058609328937,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.6881394139067106,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Will the Labour Party win a majority of seats (31 or more) at the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Assembly) election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Nicola Sturgeon exit date",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42102738/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/nicola-sturgeon-exit-date",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "2021",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.24710871241326138,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2022 or later",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.7528912875867386,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "When will Nicola Sturgeon leave her role as First Minister of Scotland?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Aberdeen South and North Kincardine",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42104039/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeen-south-and-north-kincardine",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"probability": 0.6441620333598093,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"probability": 0.35583796664019063,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win Aberdeen South and North Kincardine at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Aberdeenshire East",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42104040/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeenshire-east",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily update; this time with metaculus questions which haven't resolved yet
2021-03-08 22:17:08 +00:00
"probability": 0.7619047619047619,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily update; this time with metaculus questions which haven't resolved yet
2021-03-08 22:17:08 +00:00
"probability": 0.23809523809523808,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win Aberdeenshire East at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Angus North and Mearns",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42104041/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/angus-north-and-mearns",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.683055775839281,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"probability": 0.316944224160719,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win Angus North and Mearns at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Banffshire and Buchan Coast",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42104042/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/banffshire-and-buchan-coast",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.8013541865344269,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.19864581346557314,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win Banffshire and Buchan Coast at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Edinburgh Pentlands",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42104043/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-pentlands",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.7736942156241513,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.22630578437584864,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win Edinburgh Pentlands at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Moray",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42104044/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/moray",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.6785079928952042,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.32149200710479575,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win Moray at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Perthshire North",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42104069/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/perthshire-north",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"probability": 0.6907772570519056,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"probability": 0.30922274294809443,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win Perthshire North at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Perthshire South and Kinross-shire",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42104072/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/perthshire-south-and-kinross-shire",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.6484943364950732,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.3515056635049268,
Added foretold to the mix
2021-03-05 19:54:40 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win Perthshire South and Kinross-shire at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"stars": 2
Daily update; this time with metaculus questions which haven't resolved yet
2021-03-08 22:17:08 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Referendum on monarchy by 2024",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42109254/politics/uk/monarchy/referendum-on-monarchy-by-2024",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit; also added WilliamHill and Ladbrokes, and started adding a skeleton for betfair
2021-03-13 16:43:11 +00:00
"probability": 0.1803263907672888,
Daily update; this time with metaculus questions which haven't resolved yet
2021-03-08 22:17:08 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit; also added WilliamHill and Ladbrokes, and started adding a skeleton for betfair
2021-03-13 16:43:11 +00:00
"probability": 0.8196736092327112,
Daily update; this time with metaculus questions which haven't resolved yet
2021-03-08 22:17:08 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Will the UK hold a referendum on the abolition of the monarchy by the end of 2024?",
"stars": 2
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Aberconwy",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42112669/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/aberconwy",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-04 17:52:59 +00:00
"probability": 1,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
Daily commit
2021-04-04 17:52:59 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-04-04 17:52:59 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win Aberconwy at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Blaenau Gwent",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42112671/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/blaenau-gwent",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.6274678111587982,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.3725321888412017,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win Blaenau Gwent at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Brecon and Radnorshire",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42112672/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/brecon-and-radnorshire",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Liberal Democrat",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win Brecon and Radnorshire at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Caerphilly",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42112687/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/caerphilly",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.4452631578947368,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.417719298245614,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.13701754385964912,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win Caerphilly at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Cardiff Central",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42112704/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/cardiff-central",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrat",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win Cardiff Central at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Cardiff North",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42112712/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/cardiff-north",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 1,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win Cardiff North at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Cardiff West",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42112713/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/cardiff-west",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.6395882953385505,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.36041170466144945,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win Cardiff West at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Ceredigion",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42112716/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/ceredigion",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 1,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrat",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win Ceredigion at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Clwyd South",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42112717/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/clwyd-south",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win Clwyd South at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Gower",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42112718/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/gower",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"probability": 1,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win Gower at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Llanelli",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42112719/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/llanelli",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"probability": 0.4931657646087515,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"probability": 0.5068342353912485,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win Llanelli at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Preseli Pembrokeshire",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42112720/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/preseli-pembrokeshire",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.8103726178060112,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0.1896273821939888,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win Preseli Pembrokeshire at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Vale of Clwyd",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42112722/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/vale-of-clwyd",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win Vale of Clwyd at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Vale of Glamorgan",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42112723/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/vale-of-glamorgan",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit; also added WilliamHill and Ladbrokes, and started adding a skeleton for betfair
2021-03-13 16:43:11 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit; also added WilliamHill and Ladbrokes, and started adding a skeleton for betfair
2021-03-13 16:43:11 +00:00
"probability": 1,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win Vale of Glamorgan at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Wrexham",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42112724/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/wrexham",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.6225690890481065,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.3774309109518936,
Daily commit
2021-03-12 12:19:50 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win Wrexham at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
"stars": 2
Daily commit
2021-03-15 18:35:24 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Alyn and Deeside",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42117405/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/alyn-and-deeside",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win Alyn and Deeside at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Delyn",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42117418/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/delyn",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Daily commit
2021-03-15 18:35:24 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 1,
Daily commit
2021-03-15 18:35:24 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win Delyn at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Newport East",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42117438/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/newport-east",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win Newport East at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Newport West",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42117439/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/newport-west",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-03-24 16:10:05 +00:00
"probability": 0.6619637750238322,
Daily commit
2021-03-15 18:35:24 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-03-24 16:10:05 +00:00
"probability": 0.33803622497616775,
Daily commit
2021-03-15 18:35:24 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win Newport West at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Ynys Môn",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42117452/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/ynys-mon",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"probability": 0.8871336313959265,
Daily commit
2021-03-15 18:35:24 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"probability": 0.11286636860407351,
Daily commit
2021-03-15 18:35:24 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win Ynys Môn at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
"stars": 2
Daily commit
2021-03-16 16:55:45 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Hartlepool by-election",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42118665/politics/uk/by-elections/hartlepool-by-election",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.40807088510064526,
Daily commit
2021-03-16 16:55:45 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.5665029374939805,
Daily commit
2021-03-16 16:55:45 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Reform UK",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.01377251276124434,
Daily commit
2021-03-16 16:55:45 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.0009631127805065974,
Daily commit
2021-03-16 16:55:45 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
Daily commit
2021-03-29 22:28:30 +00:00
"name": "Northern Independence Party (Thelma Walker)",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.010690551863623231,
Daily commit
2021-03-16 16:55:45 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win the 2021 Hartlepool by-election? Other parties/candidates added on request.",
"stars": 2
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Joe Biden exit date",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42119912/politics/us/joe-biden/joe-biden-exit-date",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "2021",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.156128024980484,
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2022",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2023",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2024",
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2025 or later",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.8438719750195159,
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "When will Joe Biden cease to be President of the United States?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "2021 Scottish Parliament election: SNP seats",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42120331/politics/uk/2021-scottish-parliament-election/2021-scottish-parliament-election-snp-seats",
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "60 or fewer",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.23647809895371522,
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "61–64",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.19702074835963823,
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "65–68",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.19702074835963823,
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "69–72",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.2463202695513389,
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "73 or more",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.12316013477566945,
Added estimize
2021-03-18 02:13:34 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "How many seats will the SNP win in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"stars": 2
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
},
{
"title": "London Assembly: Bexley & Bromley",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42128456/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-bexley-bromley",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
"probability": 0.862759307908325,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0.13724069209167497,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win the London Assembly constituency of Bexley & Bromley at the 2021 London Assembly election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "London Assembly: Croydon & Sutton",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42128462/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-croydon-sutton",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-05 14:39:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.3622957353527302,
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-04-05 14:39:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.6377042646472698,
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win the London Assembly constituency of Croydon & Sutton at the 2021 London Assembly election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "London Assembly: Havering & Redbridge",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42128464/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-havering-redbridge",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-03-24 16:10:05 +00:00
"probability": 1,
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-03-24 16:10:05 +00:00
"probability": 0,
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win the London Assembly constituency of Havering & Redbridge at the 2021 London Assembly election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "London Assembly: South West",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42128713/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-south-west",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.5772065274609581,
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.1949464818389191,
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.22784699070012282,
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win the London Assembly constituency of South West at the 2021 London Assembly election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "London Assembly: West Central",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42128714/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-west-central",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win the London Assembly constituency of West Central at the 2021 London Assembly election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "2021 London mayoral election third place",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42128721/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-3rd-place",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Siân Berry",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.5636033491374962,
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Luisa Porritt",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.35771209522848785,
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Shaun Bailey",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.018359729647937053,
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sadiq Khan",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Peter Gammons",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mandu Reid",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brian Rose",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.045899324119842634,
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Laurence Fox",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.014425501866236255,
Daily commit
2021-03-23 19:51:09 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Who will finish in third place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request.",
"stars": 2
Daily commit
2021-03-24 16:10:05 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Year of next Israeli legislative election",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42129804/politics/world/israel/year-of-next-israeli-legislative-election",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "2021",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.4505287744112113,
Daily commit
2021-03-24 16:10:05 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2022",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.2333744241873743,
Daily commit
2021-03-24 16:10:05 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2023",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.12242911827677935,
Daily commit
2021-03-24 16:10:05 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2024 or later",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.19366768312463506,
Daily commit
2021-03-24 16:10:05 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "When will the next Israeli legislative election be held (following the election on 23 March 2021)?",
"stars": 2
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Liverpool City Council control",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42130192/politics/uk/local-elections/liverpool-city-council-control",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "No overall control",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.16450390908358184,
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.7261223502861288,
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Green",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.05561376642218103,
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Northern Independence Party",
Daily commit
2021-03-31 13:02:41 +00:00
"probability": 0.053759974208108324,
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will control Liverpool City Council following the May 2021 elections? Parties added on request.",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Airdrie and Shotts by-election",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42130309/politics/uk/by-elections/airdrie-and-shotts-by-election",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily commit
2021-04-05 14:39:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.8322297955209348,
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-04-05 14:39:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.139143135345667,
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-05 14:39:48 +00:00
"probability": 0.02862706913339825,
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win the 2021 Airdrie and Shotts by-election? Other parties/candidates added on request.",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Conservative national equivalent vote share",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42131417/politics/uk/local-elections/conservative-national-equivalent-vote-share",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "34% or under",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.19284241335728067,
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "35%",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.1446151799374709,
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "36%",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.15838488658285108,
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "37%",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.1446151799374709,
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "38% or over",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.35954234018492653,
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "What will the Conservative Party's national equivalent vote share be at the 2021 local elections?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Labour national equivalent vote share",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42131418/politics/uk/local-elections/labour-national-equivalent-vote-share",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "30% or under",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"probability": 0.2,
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "31%",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"probability": 0.2,
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "32%",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"probability": 0.2,
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "33%",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"probability": 0.2,
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "34% or over",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"probability": 0.2,
Daily commit
2021-03-25 16:51:28 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "What will the Labour Party's national equivalent vote share be at the 2021 local elections?",
"stars": 2
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Alba Party to win a Scottish Parliament seat",
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42133028/politics/uk/2021-scottish-parliament-election/alba-party-to-win-a-scottish-parliament-seat",
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.7355703384856193,
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.26442966151438074,
Daily commit
2021-03-27 11:21:06 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Will the Alba Party win any seats in the Scottish Parliament in the May 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"stars": 2
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
},
{
"title": "Rhondda",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42140941/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/rhondda",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win Rhondda at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Monmouth",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42140942/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/monmouth",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nick Ramsay (Independent)",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win Monmouth at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Bridgend",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42140946/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/bridgend",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win Bridgend at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Hartlepool by-election: Thelma Walker vote share",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42140991/politics/uk/by-elections/hartlepool-by-election-thelma-walker-vote-share",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Under 5.0%",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.6208553580009611,
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "5.0–9.9%",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.24267179240749642,
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "10.0–19.9%",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.09314432164023709,
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "20.0% or over",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.04332852795130547,
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "What share of the vote will Thelma Walker receive in the Hartlepool by-election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Head-to-head: Berry vs Porritt",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42141008/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-head-to-heads",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Siân Berry",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.689492119089317,
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Luisa Porritt",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.31050788091068304,
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which London mayoral candidate will receive more votes: Siân Berry or Luisa Porritt?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Head-to-head: Fox vs Fosh",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42141008/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-head-to-heads",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Laurence Fox",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.9265658747300216,
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Max Fosh",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.07343412526997839,
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which London mayoral candidate will receive more votes: Laurence Fox or Max Fosh?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Head-to-head: Gammons vs Kurten",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42141008/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-head-to-heads",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Peter Gammons",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.8196736092327112,
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "David Kurten",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.1803263907672888,
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which London mayoral candidate will receive more votes: Peter Gammons or David Kurten?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Head-to-head: Binface vs P. Corbyn",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42141008/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-head-to-heads",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "Count Binface",
"probability": 0.2570613409415121,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Piers Corbyn",
"probability": 0.7429386590584879,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which London mayoral candidate will receive more votes: Count Binface or Piers Corbyn?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Dunfermline",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142033/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/dunfermline",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Dunfermline at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Aberdeen Central",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142039/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeen-central",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.760963026655202,
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.11616509028374891,
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
Daily commit
2021-04-07 10:45:01 +00:00
"probability": 0.12287188306104899,
Daily commit
2021-04-03 20:49:48 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Aberdeen Central at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Cowdenbeath",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142080/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/cowdenbeath",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win Cowdenbeath at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Rutherglen",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142100/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/rutherglen",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Rutherglen at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Coatbridge and Chryston",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142104/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/coatbridge-and-chryston",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Coatbridge and Chryston at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Edinburgh Eastern",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142127/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-eastern",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Eastern at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Edinburgh Northern and Leith",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142137/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/edinburgh-northern",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Scottish Green",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Edinburgh Northern and Leith at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Glasgow Southside",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142148/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/glasgow-southside",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Glasgow Southside at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Caithness, Sutherland and Ross",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142152/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/caithness-sutherland-and-ross",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Caithness, Sutherland and Ross at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Argyll and Bute",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142156/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/argyll-and-bute",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": 0.8695945945945945,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
"probability": 0.1304054054054054,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Argyll and Bute at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch",
"url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42142158/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/skye-lochaber-and-badenoch",
"platform": "Smarkets",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
"probability": null,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",
"stars": 2
Added smarkets
2021-02-16 14:18:23 +00:00
}
]
Reference in New Issue Copy Permalink