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data/csetforetell-questions.json
View File

@ -7,17 +7,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.06,
"probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.94,
"probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "44",
"numforecasters": "39",
"numforecasts": "58",
"numforecasters": "51",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -37,8 +37,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "25",
"numforecasters": "24",
"numforecasts": "31",
"numforecasters": "30",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -94,8 +94,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "19",
"numforecasters": "18",
"numforecasts": "21",
"numforecasters": "20",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -106,17 +106,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.57,
"probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.43,
"probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "17",
"numforecasters": "14",
"numforecasts": "18",
"numforecasters": "15",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -127,17 +127,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.84,
"probability": 0.83,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.16,
"probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "16",
"numforecasters": "15",
"numforecasts": "17",
"numforecasters": "16",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -148,32 +148,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 7,500",
"probability": 0.0431,
"probability": 0.0415,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1358,
"probability": 0.12269999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500",
"probability": 0.3012,
"probability": 0.3031,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500",
"probability": 0.3,
"probability": 0.3085,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 13,500",
"probability": 0.22,
"probability": 0.2242,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "45",
"numforecasters": "37",
"numforecasts": "46",
"numforecasters": "38",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -184,32 +184,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 70,000",
"probability": 0.128,
"probability": 0.1278,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive",
"probability": 0.34159999999999996,
"probability": 0.3422,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000",
"probability": 0.3156,
"probability": 0.31670000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000",
"probability": 0.1567,
"probability": 0.15539999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 130,000",
"probability": 0.0582,
"probability": 0.057800000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "77",
"numforecasters": "65",
"numforecasts": "78",
"numforecasters": "66",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -220,32 +220,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $400 billion",
"probability": 0.1306,
"probability": 0.1247,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.185,
"probability": 0.1782,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion",
"probability": 0.5056,
"probability": 0.503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion",
"probability": 0.1638,
"probability": 0.1776,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $775 billion",
"probability": 0.015,
"probability": 0.0165,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "25",
"numforecasters": "23",
"numforecasts": "27",
"numforecasters": "24",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -256,32 +256,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 3%",
"probability": 0.2373,
"probability": 0.2275,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.3245,
"probability": 0.30329999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%",
"probability": 0.3055,
"probability": 0.2983,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%",
"probability": 0.0955,
"probability": 0.1167,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 7.5%",
"probability": 0.0373,
"probability": 0.0542,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "16",
"numforecasters": "15",
"numforecasts": "18",
"numforecasters": "17",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -337,7 +337,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "134",
"numforecasts": "136",
"numforecasters": "108",
"stars": 3
},
@ -358,8 +358,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "179",
"numforecasters": "132",
"numforecasts": "184",
"numforecasters": "134",
"stars": 3
},
{
@ -370,32 +370,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $40 billion",
"probability": 0.055999999999999994,
"probability": 0.0545,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.2643,
"probability": 0.2626,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion",
"probability": 0.4053,
"probability": 0.4068,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion",
"probability": 0.2023,
"probability": 0.2039,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $100 billion",
"probability": 0.07200000000000001,
"probability": 0.0723,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "52",
"numforecasters": "43",
"numforecasts": "54",
"numforecasters": "44",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -406,32 +406,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $13 billion",
"probability": 0.0348,
"probability": 0.0337,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.12480000000000001,
"probability": 0.12369999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion",
"probability": 0.41969999999999996,
"probability": 0.4183,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion",
"probability": 0.3148,
"probability": 0.32130000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $25 billion",
"probability": 0.1059,
"probability": 0.10300000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "53",
"numforecasters": "41",
"numforecasts": "57",
"numforecasters": "43",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -442,31 +442,31 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than -0.25",
"probability": 0.1943,
"probability": 0.1957,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive",
"probability": 0.3184,
"probability": 0.3164,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25",
"probability": 0.3016,
"probability": 0.3009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5",
"probability": 0.1447,
"probability": 0.14550000000000002,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 0.5",
"probability": 0.0409,
"probability": 0.0414,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "145",
"numforecasts": "147",
"numforecasters": "110",
"stars": 3
},
@ -502,7 +502,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "112",
"numforecasts": "113",
"numforecasters": "90",
"stars": 3
},
@ -514,31 +514,31 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $30 million",
"probability": 0.0471,
"probability": 0.049,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive",
"probability": 0.2965,
"probability": 0.3023,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million",
"probability": 0.33590000000000003,
"probability": 0.3353,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million",
"probability": 0.20579999999999998,
"probability": 0.2045,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $150 million",
"probability": 0.11470000000000001,
"probability": 0.109,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "138",
"numforecasts": "139",
"numforecasters": "114",
"stars": 3
},
@ -550,32 +550,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 26,000",
"probability": 0.042699999999999995,
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive",
"probability": 0.09630000000000001,
"probability": 0.0971,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000",
"probability": 0.2127,
"probability": 0.2187,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000",
"probability": 0.33299999999999996,
"probability": 0.33390000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 32,000",
"probability": 0.3153,
"probability": 0.32030000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "68",
"numforecasters": "43",
"numforecasts": "71",
"numforecasters": "44",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -586,32 +586,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 800",
"probability": 0.12119999999999999,
"probability": 0.11689999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 800 and 4,000",
"probability": 0.4581,
"probability": 0.4643,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000",
"probability": 0.2958,
"probability": 0.2899,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000",
"probability": 0.0984,
"probability": 0.0993,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 100,000",
"probability": 0.0265,
"probability": 0.0297,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "143",
"numforecasters": "100",
"numforecasts": "149",
"numforecasters": "102",
"stars": 3
},
{
@ -622,32 +622,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 0.45%",
"probability": 0.047,
"probability": 0.049699999999999994,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1832,
"probability": 0.1778,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%",
"probability": 0.2816,
"probability": 0.28300000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%",
"probability": 0.2303,
"probability": 0.2289,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 1.2%",
"probability": 0.25780000000000003,
"probability": 0.2605,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "63",
"numforecasters": "53",
"numforecasts": "66",
"numforecasters": "54",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -667,8 +667,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "147",
"numforecasters": "89",
"numforecasts": "150",
"numforecasters": "90",
"stars": 3
},
{
@ -679,31 +679,31 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 20%",
"probability": 0.0934,
"probability": 0.0929,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 20% and 25%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1841,
"probability": 0.18170000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%",
"probability": 0.369,
"probability": 0.3617,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%",
"probability": 0.24239999999999998,
"probability": 0.24850000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 35%",
"probability": 0.111,
"probability": 0.1151,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "73",
"numforecasts": "74",
"numforecasters": "59",
"stars": 2
},
@ -724,7 +724,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "332",
"numforecasts": "340",
"numforecasters": "192",
"stars": 3
},
@ -746,16 +746,16 @@
},
{
"name": "After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021",
"probability": 0.21969999999999998,
"probability": 0.2198,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "After November 17, 2021",
"probability": 0.6724,
"probability": 0.6723,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "239",
"numforecasts": "240",
"numforecasters": "135",
"stars": 3
},
@ -763,36 +763,36 @@
"title": "What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey, which is still live. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
"description": "Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 59%",
"probability": 0.1223,
"probability": 0.1184,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 59% and 66%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.18170000000000003,
"probability": 0.17679999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%",
"probability": 0.26899999999999996,
"probability": 0.2692,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%",
"probability": 0.29,
"probability": 0.2958,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 80%",
"probability": 0.13699999999999998,
"probability": 0.13970000000000002,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "226",
"numforecasters": "167",
"numforecasts": "233",
"numforecasters": "168",
"stars": 3
},
{
@ -812,7 +812,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "192",
"numforecasts": "195",
"numforecasters": "132",
"stars": 3
},
@ -824,32 +824,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 1.5%",
"probability": 0.0682,
"probability": 0.0675,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1378,
"probability": 0.13720000000000002,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%",
"probability": 0.2109,
"probability": 0.213,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%",
"probability": 0.2903,
"probability": 0.2904,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 6%",
"probability": 0.2927,
"probability": 0.2919,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "215",
"numforecasters": "139",
"numforecasts": "219",
"numforecasters": "140",
"stars": 3
}
]

114
data/fantasyscotus-questions.json
View File

@ -383,27 +383,27 @@
"title": "In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "50.00% (3 out of 6) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
"description": "37.50% (3 out of 8) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"probability": 0.375,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"probability": 0.625,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 6,
"numforecasts": 8,
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "In United States v. Cooley, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-cooley/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "0.00% (0 out of 10) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
"description": "0.00% (0 out of 12) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -416,74 +416,34 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 10,
"numforecasts": 12,
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "In Caniglia v. Strom, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/caniglia-v-strom/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "20.00% (2 out of 10) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
"description": "27.27% (3 out of 11) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"probability": 0.2727272727272727,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"probability": 0.7272727272727273,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 10,
"numforecasts": 11,
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "In Goldman Sachs Group Inc. v. Arkansas Teacher Retirement System, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/goldman-sachs-group-inc-v-arkansas-teacher-retirement-system/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "75.00% (6 out of 8) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 8,
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "In TransUnion LLC v. Ramirez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/transunion-llc-v-ramirez/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "12.50% (1 out of 8) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.125,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.875,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 8,
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "In National Collegiate Athletic Association v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "77.78% (7 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
"description": "77.78% (7 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@ -500,23 +460,63 @@
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "In American Athletic Conference v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/american-athletic-conference-v-alston/",
"title": "In TransUnion LLC v. Ramirez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/transunion-llc-v-ramirez/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "33.33% (2 out of 6) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
"description": "11.11% (1 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.3333333333333333,
"probability": 0.1111111111111111,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6666666666666667,
"probability": 0.8888888888888888,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 6,
"numforecasts": 9,
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "In National Collegiate Athletic Association v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "80.00% (8 out of 10) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.19999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 10,
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "In American Athletic Conference v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/american-athletic-conference-v-alston/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
"description": "42.86% (3 out of 7) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.42857142857142855,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5714285714285714,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 7,
"stars": 2
},
{

8
data/goodjudgment-questions.json
View File

@ -51,12 +51,12 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 24 million but less than 27 million barrels per day",
"probability": 0.57,
"probability": 0.51,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 27 million and 30 million barrels per day, inclusive",
"probability": 0.41,
"probability": 0.47,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -257,7 +257,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "The Games will begin",
"probability": 0.98,
"probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -267,7 +267,7 @@
},
{
"name": "The Games will be cancelled",
"probability": 0.01,
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],

565
data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json
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58
data/hypermind-questions.json
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@ -180,7 +180,7 @@
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0,
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -262,27 +262,27 @@
},
{
"name": "Maybe later",
"probability": 0.11,
"probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "April 2021",
"probability": 0.010204081632653062,
"probability": 0.02,
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},
{
"name": "May 2021",
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},
{
"name": "June 2021",
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"probability": 0.27,
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},
{
"name": "Maybe after June 2021",
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"probability": 0.64,
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}
],
@ -296,27 +296,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "In May or earlier",
"probability": 0.0297029702970297,
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in June (government goal)",
"probability": 0.5445544554455446,
"probability": 0.52,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in July",
"probability": 0.27722772277227725,
"probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in August",
"probability": 0.08910891089108912,
"probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maybe later",
"probability": 0.0594059405940594,
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -330,12 +330,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.07,
"probability": 0.07920792079207921,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.93,
"probability": 0.9207920792079207,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -547,27 +547,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Q1, 2021 (or before)",
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Q2, 2021",
"probability": 0.2745098039215686,
"probability": 0.25510204081632654,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Q3, 2021",
"probability": 0.4117647058823529,
"probability": 0.4285714285714286,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Q4, 2021",
"probability": 0.1764705882352941,
"probability": 0.1836734693877551,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maybe later",
"probability": 0.12745098039215685,
"probability": 0.1326530612244898,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -605,17 +605,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Worse than the 2012 record",
"probability": 0.2233009708737864,
"probability": 0.2277227722772277,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012",
"probability": 0.31067961165048547,
"probability": 0.297029702970297,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not worse than 2020",
"probability": 0.46601941747572817,
"probability": 0.4752475247524752,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -702,22 +702,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "USA",
"probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"probability": 0.00970873786407767,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "France",
"probability": 0.712871287128713,
"probability": 0.6990291262135923,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Germany",
"probability": 0.2376237623762376,
"probability": 0.2524271844660194,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "United Kingdom",
"probability": 0.039603960396039604,
"probability": 0.03883495145631068,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -731,7 +731,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "USA",
"probability": 0.88,
"probability": 0.91,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -746,7 +746,7 @@
},
{
"name": "United Kingdom",
"probability": 0.1,
"probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -817,12 +817,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.9090909090909092,
"probability": 0.92,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.09090909090909091,
"probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],

80
data/ladbrokes-questions.json
View File

@ -871,37 +871,37 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Markus Söder",
"probability": 0.403238358456856,
"probability": 0.3994348909132481,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Olaf Scholz",
"probability": 0.034895627174151005,
"probability": 0.0345664809444157,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Annalena Baerbock",
"probability": 0.08248057332072055,
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},
{
"name": "Alice Weidel",
"probability": 0.008983032737900258,
"probability": 0.008898302025295131,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jens Spahn",
"probability": 0.01778992757897894,
"probability": 0.008898302025295131,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Armin Laschet",
"probability": 0.38282122638309113,
"probability": 0.3792103394746026,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robert Habeck",
"probability": 0.06979125434830201,
"probability": 0.0691329618888314,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -1806,62 +1806,62 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservatives",
"probability": 0.440264008555029,
"probability": 0.4383248113601272,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0.48918223172781006,
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
"probability": 0.004380736403532627,
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Reform UK",
"probability": 0.013142209210597881,
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "SDP",
"probability": 0.004380736403532627,
"probability": 0.004361440909055992,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Heritage Party",
"probability": 0.001757540952315485,
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "UKIP",
"probability": 0.001757540952315485,
"probability": 0.0017497996461482122,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Womens Equality Party",
"probability": 0.001757540952315485,
"probability": 0.0017497996461482122,
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},
{
"name": "North East Party",
"probability": 0.004380736403532627,
"probability": 0.004361440909055992,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sam Lee (Ind)",
"probability": 0.008718099179307506,
"probability": 0.013084322727167976,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Thelma Walker (either as Ind or NIP)",
"probability": 0.025897882856178178,
"probability": 0.02578381243294866,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Greens",
"probability": 0.004380736403532627,
"probability": 0.004361440909055992,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -2038,27 +2038,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Under 35%",
"probability": 0.0264861683343143,
"probability": 0.026492879340025487,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "35-40%",
"probability": 0.0529723366686286,
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "40-45%",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "45-50%",
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},
{
"name": "Over 50%",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -2122,27 +2122,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Under 1%",
"probability": 0.3558014642902244,
"probability": 0.37724769639924755,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1-2%",
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},
{
"name": "2-5%",
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
@ -2204,6 +2204,24 @@
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "London Mayoral Election: Most Votes Match Bet 3",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Peter Gammons (UKIP)",
"probability": 0.8426966292134831,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Niko Omilana (Ind)",
"probability": 0.15730337078651685,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Boris Johnson: When will Johnson be replaced as PM? (1st Instance Only)",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
@ -2636,12 +2654,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP Majority",
"probability": 0.5263157894736842,
"probability": 0.5684754521963824,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No SNP Majority",
"probability": 0.47368421052631576,
"probability": 0.43152454780361754,
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}
],

6831
data/metaculus-questions.json
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3043
data/metaforecasts.csv
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data/metaforecasts.json
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618
data/polymarket-questions.json
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@ -1,103 +1,42 @@
[
{
"title": "Will Apple, Amazon, or Twitter announce a Bitcoin purchase before July 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-apple-amazon-or-twitter-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-july-1-2021",
"title": "Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 150 Gwei on April 5?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-150-gwei-on-april-5",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Apple ($AAPL), Amazon ($AMZN), or Twitter ($TWTR) will announce either their intention to purchase Bitcoin ($BTC) off their balance sheet, the completion of such a purchase, or, in any other way, ownership of BTC on their balance sheet. This announcement may come from any official channel. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Apple, Amazon, or Twitter satisfies any of the aforementioned resolution conditions before the resolution date, July 1, 2021, 12:00 AM ET. If for any reason the market conditions are not met by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"description": "This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 150 Gwei on April 5, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 150 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 150 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of April 5, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.2117064115863988157330368666145412",
"probability": "0.1875556173796472937039538996244787",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.7882935884136011842669631333854588",
"probability": "0.8124443826203527062960461003755213",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "34",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will the workers at Amazon's Bessemer facility unionize by May 5?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-workers-at-amazons-bessemer-facility-unionize-by-may-5",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the workers at the Amazon fulfillment center in Bessemer, Alabama, will win their effort to unionize by May 5, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the National Labor Relations Board certifies the RETAIL, WHOLESALE AND DEPARTMENT STORE UNION as the representative of the workers at the Amazon Bessemer facility for the purposes of collective bargaining (Case Number: 10-RC-269250, https://www.nlrb.gov/case/10-RC-269250). This market will resolve to “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be an official “Certification of Representative” decision from the National Labor Relations Board. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.1556798952930100723990816072040847",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.8443201047069899276009183927959153",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "72",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "What will the 7-day average COVID-19 case count be in the US on May 15?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-7-day-average-covid-19-case-count-be-in-the-us-on-may-15",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on what the 7-day average COVID-19 case count will be in the US on May 15, 2021 12:00 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be the 7-day moving average of daily cases, as displayed on the CDC’s Covid Data Tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases). The 7-day moving average will be checked at 12:00 PM ET on May 15, 2021. The bracket into which the 7-day moving average falls at that time will be the bracket this market resolves to. If the website is down at that time or for any reason data is not accessible on the website at the resolution date, the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC) will wait 24 hours (until 12:00 PM ET on May 16, 2021) and resolve as soon as data is available again. If data is still unavailable at that time, all brackets will resolve to 0.25 USDC. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "40,999 or fewer",
"probability": "0.3893819219523332660392126401900704",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "41,000-65,999",
"probability": "0.3786476496952500287295906513328242",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "66,000-99,999",
"probability": "0.1868055692073516015344164753748345",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "100,000 or more",
"probability": "0.04516485914506510369678023310227084",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "98",
"numforecasts": "145",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match",
"address": "0xB0E171C4e2490b97b3CEbAF36FA4006318A09b25",
"description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"outcomes": [
"Yes",
"No"
],
"options": []
},
{
"title": "Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-american-mask-usage-be-75-or-higher-on-april-14th-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the American \"observed mask usage\" metric will be above 75% on April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve when data is first made available for the date of April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the metric is 75% or higher on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. There will be no delay in resolutions for any incoming data updates or revisions past the initial publication of data for April 14th. The resolution source for this market will be the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s website, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend. Specific, non-rounded data is available for download at http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads. This data will be prioritized for resolution in the event that the headline number displayed on Health Data's graph does not accurately reflect the specific, non-rounded datapoint. Observed mask use represents the percentage of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.08241287527435891459397162776882275",
"probability": "0.9019909877497780310790581928359879",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9175871247256410854060283722311772",
"probability": "0.0980090122502219689209418071640121",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "115",
"numforecasts": "848",
"stars": 3
},
{
@ -108,146 +47,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.7236509933639097806015585509693699",
"probability": "0.7532534932096189942859631459322613",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.2763490066360902193984414490306301",
"probability": "0.2467465067903810057140368540677387",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "115",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "How many more tweets will be on the @laurenboebert account on April 6, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-laurenboebert-account-on-april-6-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on the number of tweets that will be posted to Lauren Boebert’s Twitter account prior to the resolution date, April 6, 2021 at 3:00 PM ET. \n\nAt 3:00 PM ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @laurenboebert, shall exceed 3593 (the \"Baseline\") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label \"TWEETS\" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @laurenboebert, then clicking the verified account labeled “@laurenboebert” from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @laurenboebert just before 3:00pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets on the resolution date exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to the resolution date of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.\n\nNeither Lauren Boebert, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the resolution source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, suspension, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @laurenboebert will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable.\n\nShould the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.\n\nIn the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 30",
"probability": "0.03112669674172169975854699207831242",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "30-40",
"probability": "0.2369669578907565780215803691380716",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "41-50",
"probability": "0.4355222425745799237685512394899696",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "51-60",
"probability": "0.2413820930176487064459564076841891",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "61-70",
"probability": "0.02485928026732967511602314196075242",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "71-80",
"probability": "0.01615990278262899873913944428297371",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 80",
"probability": "0.01398282672533441815020240536573119",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "830",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 150 Gwei on April 5?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-150-gwei-on-april-5",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 150 Gwei on April 5, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 150 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 150 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of April 5, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.2228977553704771088996701822450644",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.7771022446295228911003298177549356",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "118",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "How many charges will Derek Chauvin be convicted of?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-charges-will-derek-chauvin-be-convicted-of",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This market is on how many charges the jury will find Derek Chauvin guilty of. Chauvin is charged criminally in Minnesota on three counts, each of which he has pleaded not guilty to. The maximum number of charges that Chauvin can be convicted of is two. This market will resolve to the number of counts Derek Chauvin is convicted on: zero (not guilty on all counts), one (guilty on one count), or two (guilty on two counts). In the event of a \"hung jury\" or mistrial, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket, \"0\". If the trial is delayed, the market resolution will be postponed until the start of the new trial date. In the event of a judgement of acquittal, this market will still resolve to the number of charges Chauvin is convicted of. The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Minnesota Judicial Branch, specifically the page for this specific case (27-CR-20-12646: State vs. Derek Chauvin) available at https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin.",
"options": [
{
"name": "0",
"probability": "0.3717640542832050731028758609269638",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1",
"probability": "0.3907780961853577695055023696544902",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2",
"probability": "0.237457849531437157391621769418546",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "126",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will 225M COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered in the US by Biden's 100th day in office? ",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-225-m-covid-19-vaccine-doses-have-been-administered-in-the-us-by-biden-s-100th-day-in-office",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether 225 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 225 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 225 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9457820520616409899400220766349915",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.05421794793835901005997792336500853",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "424",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump launch a new social media platform by June 15, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-launch-a-new-social-media-platform-by-june-15-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether former US President Donald Trump will launch a social media platform by June 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump launches a social media platform by the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. On the resolution date, it must be possible for an individual in the United States to create an account and post. Creating an account and posting requires that user-generated content is not restricted to responses (ie comments) to another user’s content. Such content generally must be standalone image, text, or video posts. The platform must not be restricted to only a small portion of the general public or subject to a waitlist. If there is a fee or subscription required to join, this market will still resolve to “Yes”. Donald Trump’s involvement must be public and verified via an official channel, and the platform must be substantially backed by or affiliated with Donald Trump--e.g. the platform uses his name explicitly, is heavily marketed as being affiliated with him, or he is an executive for the platform. Partnership with an existing platform such as Twitter or Parler will not be sufficient for this market to resolve to “Yes”. If such a platform is temporarily inaccessible due to maintenance, system overload, or DDOS attack, resolution of this market will be delayed up to 72 hours. If the platform is inaccessible on the resolution date due to a lack of a web-hosting service provider, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.1373078541889945773790856755301614",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.8626921458110054226209143244698386",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "88",
"numforecasts": "127",
"stars": 4
},
{
@ -258,129 +67,113 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.4035526375018205811828604689416271",
"probability": "0.357235053436970495591079642839507",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.5964473624981794188171395310583729",
"probability": "0.642764946563029504408920357160493",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "102",
"numforecasts": "144",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1",
"title": "What will the 7-day average COVID-19 case count be in the US on May 15?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-7-day-average-covid-19-case-count-be-in-the-us-on-may-15",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.",
"description": "This is a market on what the 7-day average COVID-19 case count will be in the US on May 15, 2021 12:00 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be the 7-day moving average of daily cases, as displayed on the CDC’s Covid Data Tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases). The 7-day moving average will be checked at 12:00 PM ET on May 15, 2021. The bracket into which the 7-day moving average falls at that time will be the bracket this market resolves to. If the website is down at that time or for any reason data is not accessible on the website at the resolution date, the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC) will wait 24 hours (until 12:00 PM ET on May 16, 2021) and resolve as soon as data is available again. If data is still unavailable at that time, all brackets will resolve to 0.25 USDC. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.03995898922616585608566171160074021",
"name": "40,999 or fewer",
"probability": "0.3796663334204023250532864969576951",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9600410107738341439143382883992598",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "119",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.06638158251927267137860811718542585",
"name": "41,000-65,999",
"probability": "0.3759608776749518515503261782766788",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9336184174807273286213918828145741",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "433",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.1320425754648959457722038710480652",
"name": "66,000-99,999",
"probability": "0.1979529515227384396358297622475222",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.8679574245351040542277961289519348",
"name": "100,000 or more",
"probability": "0.04641983738190738376055756251810374",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "82",
"numforecasts": "111",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1",
"address": "0xDF35eC97FEC070D7c565dF86C1bb9d2f15D6470A",
"description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
"outcomes": [
"Yes",
"No"
],
"options": []
},
{
"title": "Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021",
"title": "Will the workers at Amazon's Bessemer facility unionize by May 5?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-workers-at-amazons-bessemer-facility-unionize-by-may-5",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".",
"description": "This is a market on whether the workers at the Amazon fulfillment center in Bessemer, Alabama, will win their effort to unionize by May 5, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the National Labor Relations Board certifies the RETAIL, WHOLESALE AND DEPARTMENT STORE UNION as the representative of the workers at the Amazon Bessemer facility for the purposes of collective bargaining (Case Number: 10-RC-269250, https://www.nlrb.gov/case/10-RC-269250). This market will resolve to “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be an official “Certification of Representative” decision from the National Labor Relations Board. \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.01718495616912493410540516360815251",
"probability": "0.1451050264453567041549024304395068",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9828150438308750658945948363918475",
"probability": "0.8548949735546432958450975695604932",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "750",
"stars": 3
"numforecasts": "77",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will the US have 200M total COVID-19 vaccines administered by Biden’s 100th day in office?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-200m-total-covid-19-vaccines-administered-by-bidens-100th-day-in-office",
"title": "Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-american-mask-usage-be-75-or-higher-on-april-14th-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether 200 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 200 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 200 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. \n\n",
"description": "This is a market on whether the American \"observed mask usage\" metric will be above 75% on April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve when data is first made available for the date of April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the metric is 75% or higher on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. There will be no delay in resolutions for any incoming data updates or revisions past the initial publication of data for April 14th. The resolution source for this market will be the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s website, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend. Specific, non-rounded data is available for download at http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads. This data will be prioritized for resolution in the event that the headline number displayed on Health Data's graph does not accurately reflect the specific, non-rounded datapoint. Observed mask use represents the percentage of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9880576213802719573347331675004054",
"probability": "0.06444913479904965044908340271228263",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.01194237861972804266526683249959458",
"probability": "0.9355508652009503495509165972877174",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "25",
"numforecasts": "121",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "How many charges will Derek Chauvin be convicted of?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-charges-will-derek-chauvin-be-convicted-of",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This market is on how many charges the jury will find Derek Chauvin guilty of. Chauvin is charged criminally in Minnesota on three counts, each of which he has pleaded not guilty to. The maximum number of charges that Chauvin can be convicted of is two. This market will resolve to the number of counts Derek Chauvin is convicted on: zero (not guilty on all counts), one (guilty on one count), or two (guilty on two counts). In the event of a \"hung jury\" or mistrial, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket, \"0\". If the trial is delayed, the market resolution will be postponed until the start of the new trial date. In the event of a judgement of acquittal, this market will still resolve to the number of charges Chauvin is convicted of. The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Minnesota Judicial Branch, specifically the page for this specific case (27-CR-20-12646: State vs. Derek Chauvin) available at https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin.",
"options": [
{
"name": "0",
"probability": "0.4562382782949109287736629584532174",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1",
"probability": "0.3132845231566674564517817095843784",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2",
"probability": "0.2304771985484216147745553319624041",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "148",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on June 30, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-june-30-2021",
@ -389,16 +182,116 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9546381312033776158711755660140642",
"probability": "0.9461095947795572004797324226079245",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.04536186879662238412882443398593583",
"probability": "0.05389040522044279952026757739207555",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "124",
"numforecasts": "165",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will 225M COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered in the US by Biden's 100th day in office? ",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-225-m-covid-19-vaccine-doses-have-been-administered-in-the-us-by-biden-s-100th-day-in-office",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether 225 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 225 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 225 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9524637358879000665078222726552635",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.04753626411209993349217772734473652",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "450",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump launch a new social media platform by June 15, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-launch-a-new-social-media-platform-by-june-15-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether former US President Donald Trump will launch a social media platform by June 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump launches a social media platform by the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. On the resolution date, it must be possible for an individual in the United States to create an account and post. Creating an account and posting requires that user-generated content is not restricted to responses (ie comments) to another user’s content. Such content generally must be standalone image, text, or video posts. The platform must not be restricted to only a small portion of the general public or subject to a waitlist. If there is a fee or subscription required to join, this market will still resolve to “Yes”. Donald Trump’s involvement must be public and verified via an official channel, and the platform must be substantially backed by or affiliated with Donald Trump--e.g. the platform uses his name explicitly, is heavily marketed as being affiliated with him, or he is an executive for the platform. Partnership with an existing platform such as Twitter or Parler will not be sufficient for this market to resolve to “Yes”. If such a platform is temporarily inaccessible due to maintenance, system overload, or DDOS attack, resolution of this market will be delayed up to 72 hours. If the platform is inaccessible on the resolution date due to a lack of a web-hosting service provider, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.1422182369098826705416806228109673",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.8577817630901173294583193771890327",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "94",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will the US have 200M total COVID-19 vaccines administered by Biden’s 100th day in office?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-200m-total-covid-19-vaccines-administered-by-bidens-100th-day-in-office",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether 200 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 200 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 200 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. \n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.995964443351308290480860810354855",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.004035556648691709519139189645145044",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "32",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on July 31, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-july-31-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on July 31, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.04331593733771125635572155466790263",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9566840626622887436442784453320974",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "114",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.03936452320427030038135646839641276",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9606354767957296996186435316035872",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "122",
"stars": 3
},
{
@ -409,18 +302,98 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.8742524648547909122488441889403087",
"probability": "0.9385758141927808286746168348429574",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.1257475351452090877511558110596913",
"probability": "0.06142418580721917132538316515704261",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "61",
"numforecasts": "78",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.06799707629116675628740357978263509",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9320029237088332437125964202173649",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "441",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.04746803069442792736843713096048072",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9525319693055720726315628690395193",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "101",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.1312155506777987590598609754195224",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.8687844493222012409401390245804776",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "84",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.02015269087431611037433411289830372",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9798473091256838896256658871016963",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "757",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will North Dakota have the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-north-dakota-have-the-most-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-on-may-15-2021",
@ -429,36 +402,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.5187019365027776529339474649958998",
"probability": "0.4959768219483150357773285466165463",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.4812980634972223470660525350041002",
"probability": "0.5040231780516849642226714533834537",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "401",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.7353318909948184095280323350815145",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.2646681090051815904719676649184855",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "60",
"numforecasts": "437",
"stars": 4
},
{
@ -469,16 +422,71 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.7200855687515994577853984618365658",
"probability": "0.7306068489937343718995501933059662",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.2799144312484005422146015381634342",
"probability": "0.2693931510062656281004498066940338",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "852",
"numforecasts": "925",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.7325763174545269850967695716172844",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.2674236825454730149032304283827156",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "62",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "What will The Weeknd’s Nifty Gateway drop generate in total sales?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-weeknds-nifty-gateway-drop-generate-in-total-sales",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on what The Weeknd’s NFT drop on April 3, 2021 will, on aggregate, generate in total sales. The release is currently scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on April 3, 2021, via Nifty Gateway. This market will resolve 48 hours later, on April 5, 2:00 PM ET, according to data published for the entirety of The Weeknd’s drop. The bracket which resolves to “Yes” will be the one which corresponds to the total sales of The Weeknd’s NFT drop. If the release is delayed, resolution of this market will be delayed up to 30 days. If canceled, each bracket will resolve equally to 20:20:20:20:20. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $5M",
"probability": "0.7987007288026382823750393057017378",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "$5M to less than $10M",
"probability": "0.1200498229918377331612785019231653",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "$10M to less than $20M",
"probability": "0.03365231368675466267016378974861133",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "$20M to less than $30M",
"probability": "0.0262247284224959504723605429631664",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "$30M or more",
"probability": "0.02137240609627337132115785966331922",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "72",
"stars": 4
}
]

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data/predictit-questions.json
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data/smarkets-questions.json
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